美國運通 (AXP) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Express Q4 2023 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加美國運通 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）謹此提醒，今天的通話正在錄音。

I will now turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Kartik Ramachandran. Thank you. Please go ahead.

現在我將會議交給東道主投資者關係主管卡蒂克·拉馬錢德蘭 (Kartik Ramachandran) 先生。謝謝。請繼續。

Thank you, Donna, and thank you all for joining today's call. As a reminder, before we begin, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance. These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. The factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC. The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures. The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discussed. All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com.

謝謝唐娜，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。提醒一下，在我們開始之前，今天的討論包含有關公司未來業務和財務表現的前瞻性陳述。這些是基於管理層目前的預期，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。可能導致實際結果與這些陳述有重大差異的因素包含在今天的簡報投影片和我們向 SEC 提交的報告中。今天的討論也包括非公認會計準則財務指標。可比較的公認會計準則財務指標包含在本季度的收益材料以及我們討論的前期收益材料中。所有這些都發佈在我們的網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上。

We will begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results. And then Christophe Le Caillec , Chief Financial Officer, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance. After that, we'll move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Christophe.

今天我們將由董事長兼執行長 Steve Squeri 開始，他將首先對公司的進展和成果發表一些評論。然後財務長 Christophe Le Caillec 將對我們的財務表現進行更詳細的審查。之後，我們將與 Steve 和 Christophe 就結果進行問答環節。

With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

那麼，讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us. 2023 was another strong year for American Express. We delivered record revenues of $61 billion for the year, up 15% on an FX-adjusted basis, and we had record net income of over $8 billion, with earnings per share of $11.21. In the fourth quarter, we continued to drive strong customer engagement and demand for our premium products. We had solid growth in billings, strong new account acquisitions and continued strength in credit quality, which remains the best in the industry. As a result, we achieved fourth quarter revenues of nearly $16 billion, which was another quarterly record and EPS was $2.62.

早安，感謝您加入我們。 2023 年對美國運通來說又是強勁的一年。我們全年的營收達到創紀錄的 610 億美元，經匯率調整後成長 15%，淨利超過 80 億美元，創下歷史新高，每股收益為 11.21 美元。第四季度，我們持續推動強勁的客戶參與度和對我們優質產品的需求。我們的營業額穩定成長，新帳戶收購強勁，信貸品質持續強勁，仍然是業界最好的。結果，我們第四季的營收接近 160 億美元，再創季度紀錄，每股收益為 2.62 美元。

Christophe will provide detail on our quarterly results, but I would like to take a step back to talk about what we've accomplished over the last 2 years and tell you why I'm feeling good about where we are today and why I'm confident in our future. Coming out of the COVID pandemic in January of 2022, we saw an opportunity to accelerate our growth and we set an aspiration to sustain growth over the longer term at levels that were higher than what we were achieving prior to the pandemic. At that time, we laid out a growth plan with the objective of positioning the company to be able to deliver on our aspiration of driving annual revenue growth of 10% plus and mid-teens EPS growth over the long term.

Christophe 將提供有關我們季度業績的詳細信息，但我想退一步談談我們在過去兩年中所取得的成就，並告訴您為什麼我對我們今天的處境感覺良好以及為什麼我對我們的未來充滿信心。 2022 年 1 月，新冠疫情結束後，我們看到了加速成長的機會，並設定了長期維持成長的願望，其水準高於疫情前的水準。當時，我們制定了一項成長計劃，目標是使公司能夠實現我們的願望，即長期推動年收入成長 10% 以上，每股收益成長 10% 以上。

In executing the plan, we focused on listening to our customers and understanding their needs, and we invested in innovating our value propositions as well as uplifting our marketing and technology capabilities and backing our colleagues to meet those needs. Looking back over the 2 years since we announced the growth plan, I'm pleased to say that we achieved what we set out to do. And in fact, we're ahead of where we thought we'd be on our journey, thanks to the millions of premium customers we have around the world and the American Express colleagues who support them.

在執行該計劃時，我們專注於傾聽客戶的聲音並了解他們的需求，我們投資於創新我們的價值主張，提升我們的行銷和技術能力，並支持我們的同事滿足這些需求。回顧我們宣布增長計劃以來的兩年，我很高興地說我們實現了我們的目標。事實上，由於我們在世界各地擁有數百萬優質客戶以及支持他們的美國運通同事，我們已經領先我們的預期。

Today, we are a larger and stronger company. Since 2021, we've delivered record annual revenues, increasing the scale of our business by over 40% in just 2 years from $42 billion to $61 billion in annual revenues. In revenues, annual card spending over this period has increased 37% on an FX-adjusted basis to a record $1.5 trillion. We've added about 25 million new proprietary card accounts over the last 2 years and over 70% of these new accounts are coming into the franchise on fee-based products. With the growth in new accounts we've seen over the past few years, we now have a total of over 140 million cards running on our global network.

今天，我們是一家更大更強的公司。自 2021 年以來，我們的年收入創下了歷史新高，業務規模在短短 2 年內增長了 40% 以上，從年收入 420 億美元增至 610 億美元。在收入方面，經匯率調整後，這段期間的年度信用卡支出增加了 37%，達到創紀錄的 1.5 兆美元。在過去 2 年裡，我們新增了約 2,500 萬個自營卡帳戶，其中超過 70% 的新帳戶都進入了收費產品的特許經營業務。隨著過去幾年新帳戶的成長，現在我們的全球網路上運行的卡片總數超過 1.4 億張。

Our focus on continuously innovating our value propositions to meet the needs of our customers is driving increased brand relevance across generations, including Millennial and Gen Z consumers. These customers represent over 60% of the new consumer accounts we acquired globally in 2023 and 75% of new consumer platinum and gold accounts acquired in the U.S. came from this cohort. At the same time, retention continues to be very high, and our credit metrics remain strong and best in class. These strong results reflect the success of our strategic investments we've made in our business, along with the tremendous earnings power of our business model.

我們致力於不斷創新價值主張以滿足客戶的需求，這正在推動提高各世代（包括千禧世代和 Z 世代消費者）的品牌相關性。這些客戶占我們 2023 年在全球獲得的新消費者帳戶的 60% 以上，在美國獲得的新消費者白金和黃金帳戶中有 75% 來自這一群體。同時，保留率仍然很高，我們的信用指標仍然強勁並且是同類中最好的。這些強勁的業績反映了我們在業務中進行的策略投資的成功，以及我們業務模式的巨大獲利能力。

Looking ahead, let me tell you why I feel really good about our future prospects. We have a business model that is delivering premium performance, and we have strong momentum, which is driven by 4 key features of our model that differentiate us from the competition and are difficult to replicate. First, our economic construct has a set of diversified revenue sources that include card fees, spending and best-in-class lending. With our subscription-like card fees being a core and fast-growing component of our revenue mix. We have a singular focus on premium customers and superior innovative value propositions. Our premium customers are high-spending, loyal and drive our strong credit performance.

展望未來，讓我告訴您為什麼我對我們的未來前景感到非常樂觀。我們擁有能夠提供卓越績效的業務模式，並且擁有強勁的動力，這是由我們模式的 4 個關鍵特徵驅動的，這些特徵使我們在競爭中脫穎而出，並且難以複製。首先，我們的經濟結構擁有一系列多元化的收入來源，包括卡費、支出和一流的貸款。我們的訂閱卡費用是我們收入組合的核心且快速成長的組成部分。我們特別關注優質客戶和卓越的創新價值主張。我們的優質客戶消費高且忠誠，推動了我們強勁的信用表現。

We have a large and growing partnership ecosystem that expands our brand value to Card Members and merchant partners around the world. And we have a global brand that is servicing ethos that truly sets us apart. Our business model provides us with strong competitive advantages. And the way we've been able to leverage the model's unique elements and execute our strategy has strengthened those advantages giving us the runway for continuing our momentum across generations, geographies and both our consumer and small business customers.

我們擁有一個龐大且不斷發展的合作夥伴生態系統，可以將我們的品牌價值擴展到世界各地的卡片會員和商家合作夥伴。我們擁有一個全球品牌，其服務精神使我們真正與眾不同。我們的商業模式為我們提供了強大的競爭優勢。我們能夠利用該模型的獨特元素並執行我們的策略的方式增強了這些優勢，為我們在跨代、跨地域以及跨消費者和小型企業客戶方面繼續保持我們的勢頭奠定了基礎。

The power of our business model combined with the global scale of our premium customer base, the dedication and focus of our talented colleagues, and the attractiveness of the many growth opportunities we see ahead are the key reasons why I'm confident in our ability to continue on our growth plan. And it's why going forward, we'll remain focused on our long-term aspiration of delivering annual revenue growth of 10% plus and mid-teens EPS growth.

我們商業模式的力量，加上我們優質客戶群的全球規模，我們才華橫溢的同事的奉獻和專注，以及我們看到的未來​​許多成長機會的吸引力，是我對我們的能力充滿信心的關鍵原因。繼續我們的成長計劃。這就是為什麼展望未來，我們將繼續專注於實現年收入成長 10% 以上和每股收益成長 10% 以上的長期願望。

We believe this aspiration is the right one, and we aim to achieve it every year. However, we managed the company for the long term, and we anticipate there will be a range of potential outcomes in any given year due to a variety of factors such as external environment and actions we might take that we decide are best for the business. Looking at this year, the continued momentum we've seen in the business as we've executed our strategy gives us confidence in our guidance for 2024, which is in line with our long-term aspiration. For the year, we expect to deliver annual revenue growth between 9% and 11% and full year EPS of $12.65 to $13.15. In addition, we plan to increase our quarterly dividend on common shares outstanding to $0.70 a share up from $0.60 beginning with the first quarter 2024 dividend declaration. This represents more than a 60% increase in the dividend from when we introduced our growth plan in January of 2022.

我們相信這願望是正確的，我們的目標是每年都實現它。然而，我們對公司進行長期管理，由於外部環境和我們可能採取的最適合業務的行動等各種因素，我們預計在任何一年都會出現一系列潛在結果。展望今年，我們在執行策略時看到的業務持續成長動能讓我們對 2024 年的指導充滿信心，這符合我們的長期願望。今年，我們預計年收入將成長 9% 至 11%，全年每股收益 12.65 美元至 13.15 美元。此外，我們計劃從 2024 年第一季股息宣布開始，將已發行普通股的季度股息從每股 0.60 美元增加到 0.70 美元。這意味著股息比我們 2022 年 1 月推出成長計畫時增加了 60% 以上。

As always, we will continue to run our business for the long term, and we'll do that by listening to our customers and meeting their needs through innovative unique value propositions and exceptional service that reflects our brand built on trust and security, delivered and supported by a world-class colleague base. In keeping our focus on backing our customers and our colleagues, we are confident that we will continue to deliver strong growth on a sustainable basis over the long term.

一如既往，我們將繼續長期經營我們的業務，我們將透過傾聽客戶的聲音並透過創新的獨特價值主張和卓越的服務滿足他們的需求來做到這一點，這些服務反映了我們建立在信任和安全之上的品牌，交付和交付得到世界級同事基礎的支持。在繼續專注於支持客戶和同事的過程中，我們相信我們將繼續在可持續的基礎上實現長期的強勁成長。

Thank you, and let me now turn it over to Christophe.

謝謝你，現在讓我把它交給克里斯托夫。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. It's good to be here to talk about our 2023 results, which reflect another strong year of performance and to lay out our expectations for 2024. I will discuss both our quarterly and full year results this morning. Since its year-end and since looking at our business on an annual basis is more in sync with how we run the company.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早安。很高興能在這裡談論我們的 2023 年業績，這反映了又一個強勁的業績年度，並闡述了我們對 2024 年的期望。今天早上我將討論我們的季度和全年業績。自年底以來，每年對我們的業務進行審視與我們經營公司的方式更加同步。

Starting with our summary financials on Slide 2. Full year revenues reached an all-time high of $60.5 billion, up 15% on an FX-adjusted basis. Our fourth quarter revenues were $15.8 billion and grew 11% year-over-year. This revenue momentum drove reported full year net income of $8.4 billion and earnings per share of $11.21. For the quarter, we reported net income of $1.9 billion and earnings per share of $2.62.

從投影片 2 上的財務摘要開始。全年營收達到 605 億美元的歷史新高，經匯率調整後成長 15%。我們第四季的營收為 158 億美元，年增 11%。這一收入動能推動全年淨利達到 84 億美元，每股收益達到 11.21 美元。本季度，我們報告淨利潤為 19 億美元，每股收益為 2.62 美元。

Let's now go through a more detailed look at the drivers of these results, beginning with Billed business on Slide 3. We reached record levels of spending for both the full year and the fourth quarter in 2023. Total Billed business grew 9% versus last year on an FX-adjusted basis. In the fourth quarter, Billed business grew 6% as we continued to see more stable growth rates after lapping the prior year impact of Omicron back in the first quarter. This 6% growth rate does reflect a bit of softening versus last quarter. But I would point out that the number of transactions from our Card Members continues to grow double digits year-over-year, a good indicator of the engagement of our customer base.

現在讓我們更詳細地了解這些結果的驅動因素，從幻燈片3 上的計費業務開始。我們在2023 年全年和第四季度的支出都達到了創紀錄的水平。計費業務總額比去年成長了9%在匯率調整的基礎上。第四季度，計費業務成長了 6%，在第一季克服了 Omicron 上一年的影響後，我們繼續看到更穩定的成長率。 6% 的成長率確實反映出與上季相比有所放緩。但我要指出的是，我們的持卡會員的交易數量繼續同比增長兩位數，這是我們客戶群參與度的一個很好的指標。

Our growth was driven by 5% growth in Goods & Services spending and although slower than last quarter, continued strong growth in Travel & Entertainment spending, up 9% for the quarter. Restaurant spending remains our largest T&E category and reached $100 billion for the full year for the first time, while airline spending growth slowed in the quarter. There are a few other key points to take away as we then break down our spending trends across our businesses.

我們的成長是由商品和服務支出成長 5% 推動的，儘管比上季放緩，但旅行和娛樂支出持續強勁成長，本季成長 9%。餐廳支出仍然是我們最大的差旅娛樂類別，全年首次達到 1,000 億美元，而本季航空公司支出成長放緩。當我們分析整個企業的支出趨勢時，還有其他一些關鍵點需要注意。

Starting with our largest segment on Slide 4. U.S. Consumer grew billings at 7% this quarter. We continue to see growth across all generations and age cohorts with Millennials and Gen Z customers again driving our highest billed business growth within this segment. Their spending was up 15% this quarter.

從幻燈片 4 上我們最大的部分開始。本季美國消費者的帳單增加了 7%。我們繼續看到所有世代和年齡層的成長，其中千禧世代和 Z 世代客戶再次推動我們在該細分市場中最高的業務成長。本季他們的支出成長了 15%。

Looking at Commercial Services on Slide 5. Overall growth came in at 1% this quarter, consistent with last quarter's growth rate. Spending growth from our U.S. small and medium-sized enterprise customers remain modest given the unique dynamics seen by small businesses over the past few years. Specifically, in 2022, we saw a large increase in organic spending as businesses restock their inventories following supply chain issues during the pandemic. This caused a significant grow-over challenge with spending from this segment in the industry in 2023. Importantly, we continue to see strong levels of demand for new accounts, high levels of retention and strong credit performance on our small business products. Looking ahead, this positions us well for the future, as spending growth rebalance.

檢視投影片 5 的商業服務。本季整體成長率為 1%，與上季的成長率一致。鑑於過去幾年小型企業的獨特動態，我們的美國中小企業客戶的支出成長仍然溫和。具體而言，2022 年，隨著企業在疫情期間出現供應鏈問題後補充庫存，我們看到有機支出大幅增加。這對該行業的這一細分市場的支出在 2023 年造成了重大的成長挑戰。重要的是，我們繼續看到對新帳戶的強勁需求、高保留率以及我們小型企業產品的強勁信用表現。展望未來，隨著支出成長重新平衡，這為我們的未來奠定了良好的基礎。

And lastly, on Slide 6, you see our highest growth again this quarter in International Card Services. We continue to see double-digit growth across all regions and customer types. Spending from International Consumers and from international SME and large corporate customers, each grew 13% in the fourth quarter. Overall, while we're seeing a softer spend environment, we are pleased with the continued strong engagement and loyalty of our Card Members across the globe. As we think about 2024, we are assuming a spend environment similar to what we've seen in the past few quarters.

最後，在投影片 6 中，您可以看到本季國際卡服務領域再次實現最高成長。我們繼續看到所有地區和客戶類型的兩位數成長。國際消費者以及國際中小企業和大型企業客戶的支出在第四季度均增加了 13%。整體而言，雖然我們看到消費環境較為疲軟，但我們對全球持卡會員持續強勁的參與度和忠誠度感到滿意。在考慮 2024 年時，我們假設支出環境與過去幾季類似。

Now moving on to loans and Card Member receivables on Slide 7. We saw year-over-year growth of 13%. We expect this growth, which has been elevated versus pre-pandemic levels to continue to moderate as we progress through the 2024, but to still grow modestly faster than billings.

現在轉到投影片 7 上的貸款和卡會員應收帳款。我們看到年增 13%。我們預計，隨著 2024 年的進展，這與大流行前水準相比有所上升的成長將繼續放緩，但仍將略高於比比林斯的成長速度。

Turning next to credit and provision on Slide 8 through 10. First and most importantly, we continue to see strong and best-in-class credit metrics. We attribute this performance to the high credit quality of our customer base, our robust risk management practices and our disciplined growth strategy. As we had expected, our write-off and delinquency rates did continue to tick up this quarter, as you see on Slide 8. Going forward, we expect to see this delinquency and write-off rates remain strong with modest increases in 2024.

接下來轉向幻燈片 8 至 10 中的信貸和撥備。首先也是最重要的是，我們繼續看到強勁且一流的信貸指標。我們將這項業績歸功於客戶群的高信用品質、穩健的風險管理實務和嚴格的成長策略。正如我們預期的那樣，本季我們的沖銷率和拖欠率確實繼續上升，正如您在幻燈片8 中看到的那樣。展望未來，我們預計這種拖欠率和沖銷率將保持強勁，並在2024年略有上升。

Turning now to the accounting of this credit performance on Slide 9. The modest increase in our Card Member loans and receivables delinquency rate, combined with the quarter-over-quarter growth in our loan balances, resulted in a $400 million reserve build. This reserve build combined with net write-offs, drove $1.4 billion of provision expense in the fourth quarter.

現在轉向幻燈片 9 中信用績效的核算。我們的持卡會員貸款和應收帳款拖欠率的小幅增長，加上我們貸款餘額的環比增長，導致準備金增加了 4 億美元。儲備金的增加加上淨沖銷，導致第四季撥備支出達到 14 億美元。

As you see on Slide 10, we ended the fourth quarter with $5.4 billion of reserves, representing 2.8% of our total loans and Card Member receivables and continuing to reflect the premium nature of our Card Member base. This reserve rate remains about 10 basis points below the level we had pre-pandemic or day 1 CECL. We continue to expect the reserve rate to increase a bit as we move through 2024 similar to the modest increases we've seen over the past few quarters.

正如您在投影片 10 中看到的，我們第四季末的準備金為 54 億美元，占我們貸款和卡片會員應收帳款總額的 2.8%，並繼續反映我們卡片會員基礎的優質性質。該準備率仍比大流行前或 CECL 第一天的水平低約 10 個基點。我們繼續預計，隨著 2024 年的到來，準備金率將小幅上漲，類似於過去幾季的小幅上漲。

Moving next to revenue on Slide 11. Total revenues were up 11% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and up 15% for the full year on an FX-adjusted basis. Our largest revenue line, discount revenue grew 5% year-over-year in Q4 and 9% for the full year, as you can see on Slide 12. This growth is mostly driven by the spending trends we discussed earlier. Net card fee revenues were up 17% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and 20% for the full year, as you can see on Slide 13. As we expected, growth continued to moderate a bit this quarter from the high levels we saw earlier this year, reflecting our cycle of product refreshes.

接下來是投影片 11 上的營收。經匯率調整後，第四季總營收年增 11%，全年成長 15%。正如您在投影片 12 中看到的那樣，我們最大的營收線折扣收入在第四季度同比增長 5%，全年增長 9%。這種增長主要是由我們之前討論的支出趨勢推動的。正如您在幻燈片13 中看到的那樣，第四季度的網卡費用收入同比增長17%，全年增長20%。正如我們預期的那樣，本季度的增長繼續比我們的高水準略有放緩。今年早些時候看到的，反映了我們的產品更新周期。

In 2024, we expect to exceed the year with some further momentum compared to the current growth, supported by continued product innovation and our focus on premium value propositions. We currently have plans to refresh around 40 products globally next year. In the quarter, we acquired 2.9 million new cards and the spend revenue and credit profiles of our new Card Members continue to look strong.

到 2024 年，在持續的產品創新和我們對優質價值主張的支持下，我們預計與當前的成長相比將有進一步的成長動力。目前我們計劃明年在全球更新約 40 種產品。本季度，我們獲得了 290 萬張新卡，新卡會員的消費收入和信用狀況仍然強勁。

Moving on to Slide 14. You can see that net interest income was up 30% year-over-year on an FX-adjusted basis in Q4 and 33% for the full year. This growth is driven by the increase in our revolving loan balances and also by continued net yield expansion versus last year. When you think about 2024, you should expect to see net interest income growth moderate as balance growth moderates, with some continued tailwind from our tenured customers continuing to rebuild balances. And I would remind you that for our business model, we would not expect to see a meaningful impact from a lower interest rate environment next year.

轉到投影片 14。您可以看到，第四季經匯率調整後的淨利息收入年增 30%，全年成長 33%。這一增長是由我們的循環貸款餘額增加以及淨收益率較去年持續擴張所推動的。當您考慮 2024 年時，您應該會看到隨著餘額成長放緩，淨利息收入成長將放緩，並且我們的長期客戶將繼續重建餘額，從而帶來一些持續的推動力。我想提醒您，對於我們的商業模式，我們預計明年較低的利率環境不會產生有意義的影響。

To sum up revenues on Slide 15. The power of our diversified model continues to drive strong revenue momentum, looking forward into 2024, we expect to see revenue growth between 9% and 11%.

總結投影片 15 上的營收。我們多元化模式的力量持續推動強勁的營收勢頭，展望 2024 年，我們預期營收成長在 9% 至 11% 之間。

Moving to expenses on Slide 16. Overall, total expenses were up 5% in the fourth quarter and 10% on a full year basis, both growing significantly lower than revenue. This expense growth reflects the strong growth we are seeing in our business, the investments we've made as well as our continued focus on expense discipline. Starting at the top of the page with variable customer engagement expenses, these costs came in at 40% of total revenues for the fourth quarter and 41% for the full year. I would note that these costs came in a bit lower than our expectations reflecting some of the natural hedges in our model.

轉向投影片 16 上的支出。整體而言，第四季總支出成長 5%，全年成長 10%，兩者成長速度均顯著低於營收成長。這項費用成長反映了我們業務的強勁成長、我們所做的投資以及我們對費用紀律的持續關注。從頁面頂部開始，客戶參與費用是可變的，這些成本佔第四季度總收入的 40%，佔全年總收入的 41%。我要指出的是，這些成本略低於我們的預期，反映了我們模型中的一些自然對沖。

As T&E spend growth slowed a bit in the quarter, we saw lower reward costs than we had expected. For example, a lower mix of redemptions for airlines tickets and fewer points earned on airline spend. In 2024, I would expect our variable customer engagement expenses to grow slightly higher than our revenue as we continue to focus on our premium products and drive engagement from our Card Members.

由於本季差旅費支出成長略有放緩，我們發現獎勵成本低於預期。例如，機票兌換組合減少，航空公司消費賺取的積分減少。到 2024 年，我預計我們的可變客戶參與費用的成長將略高於我們的收入，因為我們將繼續專注於優質產品並提高持卡會員的參與度。

On the marketing line, we invested around $1.2 billion in the fourth quarter and $5.2 billion for the full year. This is a bit below last year and our expectations to have marketing spend at around $5.5 billion. Marketing expense came in lower than we expected for the quarter, reflecting lower demand given the softer T&E environment. However, we saw demand increase as we move through the quarter, and we continue to plan for increased marketing spend in 2024. We're confident that with our sophisticated acquisition engine will do so in an efficient way.

在行銷方面，我們在第四季度投資了約 12 億美元，全年投資了 52 億美元。這略低於去年，我們預計行銷支出約為 55 億美元。本季行銷費用低於我們的預期，反映出差旅娛樂環境疲軟導致需求下降。然而，隨著本季度的推進，我們看到需求增加，我們繼續計劃在 2024 年增加行銷支出。我們相信，憑藉我們先進的收購引擎，我們將有效地實現這一目標。

Moving to the bottom of Slide 16 brings us to operating expenses, which were $4.2 billion in the fourth quarter and $14.9 billion for the full year 2023. This was above our original expectations, driven by a few notable items in the quarter. First, as part of the normal course of business, we set up a reserve to cover expenses as we continuously look to enhance the organization's effectiveness. We also set up a reserve for exposure to a specific merchant and like many others, we were impacted by the devaluation of the Argentine peso, which increased our OpEx in Q4 by $115 million.

轉到幻燈片16 的底部，我們可以看到第四季度的營運支出為42 億美元，2023 年全年為149 億美元。這超出了我們最初的預期，這是由本季一些值得注意的項目推動的。首先，作為正常業務流程的一部分，我們設立了儲備金來支付我們不斷提高組織效率的費用。我們也為特定商家設立了儲備金，與許多其他商家一樣，我們受到了阿根廷比索貶值的影響，這使我們第四季度的營運支出增加了 1.15 億美元。

Looking forward, we continue to see OpEx as a key source of leverage and are focused on delivering low levels of growth as we have historically done. In 2024, we expect operating expenses to be fairly flat to this year's expense. We will, of course, continue to assess opportunities as we move through the year, and our flexible model will allow us to dial up or down investments as needed. Taking everything into account in 2024, we expect total expense to grow mid- to high level digits for the full year as we expect to drive continued leverage through our operating expenses.

展望未來，我們繼續將營運支出視為槓桿的關鍵來源，並像我們過去所做的那樣專注於實現低水準的成長。 2024 年，我們預計營運費用將與今年的費用相當持平。當然，我們將在這一年中繼續評估機會，我們靈活的模式將使我們能夠根據需要增加或減少投資。考慮到 2024 年的一切因素，我們預計全年總費用將實現中高水準數位成長，因為我們預計透過營運費用來持續推動槓桿作用。

Turning next to capital on Slide 17. We returned $5.3 billion of capital to our shareholders in 2023, including $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter on the back of strong earnings generation. We ended the year with our CET1 ratio of 10.5% within our target range of 10% to 11%. In Q1 2024, as Steve discussed, we expect to increase our dividend by over 15% to $0.70 per quarter, consistent with our approach of growing our dividend in line with earnings and our 20% to 25% target payout ratio. We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth. We do not expect any material near-term changes to our capital management approach.

接下來轉向幻燈片 17 上的資本。2023 年，我們向股東返還了 53 億美元的資本，其中第四季度由於強勁的盈利能力而返還了 14 億美元。今年結束時，我們的 CET1 比率為 10.5%，在我們 10% 至 11% 的目標範圍內。正如 Steve 所討論的，我們預計在 2024 年第一季將股息增加超過 15%，達到每季 0.70 美元，這與我們根據收益和 20% 至 25% 的目標派息率增加股息的方法一致。我們計劃繼續向股東返還我們產生的多餘資本，同時支持我們的資產負債表成長。我們預計我們的資本管理方法短期內不會發生任何重大變化。

That brings me to our long-term aspiration and 2024 guidance on Slide 18. We continue to run our business with a focus on our aspiration of revenue growth in excess of 10% and mid-teens EPS growth, and we believe that is the right aspiration. As Steve discussed for the full year 2024 specifically, we are introducing our guidance of having revenue growth of 9% to 11% and earnings per share between $12.65 and $13.15. This guidance remains in line with our aspiration and also factors in a range of scenarios based on what we're seeing in our business today.

這讓我想到了幻燈片18 上我們的長期願景和2024 年指導。我們繼續經營我們的業務，重點是我們的收入增長超過10% 和每股收益增長中位數的願望，我們相信這是正確的願望。正如 Steve 針對 2024 年全年具體討論的那樣，我們提出了收入增長 9% 至 11%、每股收益在 12.65 美元至 13.15 美元之間的指導方針。該指導仍然符合我們的願望，並且還根據我們今天的業務情況考慮了一系列場景。

We also recently announced an agreement to sell our certified business. Our guidance and the items related to 2024 that I just walked through do not include the potential impact from the sale. We do expect to realize a sizable gain on the sale and to reinvest a substantial portion of the gain back into our business as we've done with similar transactions in the past. We expect the deal to close in the second quarter and plan to provide more detail then.

我們最近也宣布了一項出售我們認證業務的協議。我們的指導和我剛剛瀏覽的與 2024 年相關的項目不包括出售的潛在影響。我們確實希望透過出售獲得可觀的收益，並將大部分收益重新投資回我們的業務，就像我們過去進行類似交易一樣。我們預計該交易將在第二季完成，並計劃屆時提供更多細節。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Kartik to open the call for your questions.

之後，我會將電話轉回給卡蒂克，以解答您的問題。

Thank you, Christophe. Before we open up the lines for Q&A, I will ask those in the queue to please limit yourself to just one question. Thank you for your cooperation. And with that, the operator will now open up the line for questions. Operator?

謝謝你，克里斯托夫。在我們開放問答隊列之前，我會請隊列中的人限制自己只回答一個問題。謝謝您的合作。話務員現在將開放提問線。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Don Fandetti of Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自富國銀行的 Don Fandetti。

Good to see the 24% EPS guidance and rev guidance. I guess on January spend, some of your peers have noted a slowdown on weather. Can you comment on that? And then just maybe talk a little bit about Billed business in '24 in terms of SME.

很高興看到 24% 的 EPS 指導和轉速指導。我想在一月份的消費中，一些同行已經注意到天氣放緩。你能對此發表評論嗎？然後也許可以談談 24 年中小企業方面的計費業務。

Yes. So we don't talk about monthly numbers. So let alone about a few weeks into the month of January. So I think pass this to wait until the end of the quarter, and we'll provide a lot more color and detail on the billing in January so far. As far as how we think about Billed business in 2024, our planning assumption is that we should expect or we're expecting billings to be consistent with what we've seen in the prior few quarters. And we are ready to see an upside if there is some. But for now, that's the assumption we baked in our plans and how we constructed this guidance.

是的。所以我們不談每月的數字。更不用說進入一月份的幾週了。因此，我認為將其傳遞到季度末，我們將提供更多有關 1 月份帳單的顏色和詳細資訊。就我們如何看待 2024 年的計費業務而言，我們的計劃假設是我們應該預期或預計計費將與我們在前幾個季度看到的情況一致。如果有的話，我們已經準備好看到積極的一面。但就目前而言，這就是我們在計劃中提出的假設以及我們如何建立本指南。

On the SME side, it's the same assumption, if you want. We are assuming something similar to what we're seeing in Q3, Q4, and we are very focused on winning the recoveries with SMEs. As I said in my remarks, these Card Members have been through a lot over the last 2, 3 years. And we are focusing on providing the best experience, the best products. We're focusing on acquiring as many customers as we can in helping them grow their business. And we'll be ready when they're ready. Historically, this has been a volatile segment for us, you know how dynamic these customer segments are, and we play a critical role in that industry, and we'll be ready when they're ready.

在中小企業方面，如果你願意的話，也是同樣的假設。我們假設的情況與第三季、第四季的情況類似，我們非常注重贏得中小企業的復甦。正如我在演講中所說，這些卡會員在過去的兩三年中經歷了許多事情。我們專注於提供最好的體驗、最好的產品。我們致力於吸引盡可能多的客戶，幫助他們發展業務。當他們準備好時我們也會準備好。從歷史上看，這對我們來說一直是一個不穩定的細分市場，你知道這些客戶細分市場有多麼活躍，我們在該行業中發揮著關鍵作用，當他們準備好時我們就會做好準備。

The next question is coming from Ryan Nash of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的瑞安·納許。

Maybe to build on Don's question, can you maybe just dig a little bit deeper on some of the drivers of revenue growth at discount revenues, card fees? And Christophe, I know you said that NII should decelerate. And are we assuming any sort of reacceleration as we move through the year, particularly in areas like U.S. Consumer or SME?

也許在唐的問題的基礎上，您能否更深入地挖掘折扣收入、卡費等收入成長的一些驅動因素？ Christophe，我知道你說過 NII 應該減速。我們是否假設今年會出現任何形式的重新加速，特別是在美國消費者或中小企業等領域？

Yes. Ryan. Thank you for your question. So the building blocks of the revenue growth remain the same at a very high level we expect billing and, therefore, discount revenue to grow at a pace similar to what we've seen in the recent quarters. We expect card fees. So Q4 is at 17%, full year at 20%. We expect card fees to be a key contributor to growth going forward, to remain a key contributor to growth going forward. And actually to exit Q4 at a higher level than where we are right now. And I give you the context in my remarks, very much supported by the constant strength in premium acquisition through product refresh and renewals that we are committed to execute on and very strong retention rates, which we have experienced for many years now.

是的。瑞安.謝謝你的問題。因此，收入成長的基石保持在非常高的水平，我們預計帳單和折扣收入將以與我們最近幾季看到的類似的速度成長。我們預計卡費。因此，第四季為 17%，全年為 20%。我們預計卡費將成為未來成長的關鍵貢獻者，並且仍然是未來成長的關鍵貢獻者。實際上，以比現在更高的水平退出第四季度。我在演講中向大家介紹了背景，這得到了我們致力於執行的產品更新和續訂所帶來的溢價獲取的持續優勢以及非常高的保留率的支持，這是我們多年來所經歷的。

And when it comes to the last component of our revenue pool, net interest income, you should expect that growth rate to moderate very much driven by the fact that -- and you've seen the trend, I'm sure, Ryan, the asset growth and the lending growth rate has been moderating over the past quarters. And we expect that moderation to continue. The very strong growth was a function of tenured Card Members rebuilding balances post-COVID. And at some stage, we're going to reach the more normal rate there, and that will naturally drive NII due to a more moderate level of growth.

當談到我們收入池的最後一個組成部分，即淨利息收入時，你應該預期成長率會放緩，這在很大程度上是由以下事實驅動的——我相信你已經看到了這一趨勢，瑞安，過去幾個季度，資產成長和貸款成長率一直在放緩。我們預計這種溫和的勢頭將繼續下去。非常強勁的成長是由於長期持卡會員在疫情後重建餘額的結果。在某個階段，我們將達到更正常的水平，由於成長水平更為溫和，這自然會推動NII。

I got to also mention that we believe that the interest rate dynamic and what the Fed will decide doesn't play a big role here in terms of what's going to happen to NII. And when you put all of this together and you can -- we run multiple scenarios, what if billing is a bit stronger, what if NII is a bit weaker. And we land in the same range of 9% to 11%. So that's very much how we think about the revenue guidance.

我還必須提到的是，我們認為利率動態和聯準會的決定對於 NII 的變化不會發揮重要作用。當你把所有這些放在一起時，你可以——我們運行多個場景，如果計費更強一點怎麼辦，如果 NII 弱一點怎麼辦。我們的比例也處於 9% 到 11% 的相同範圍內。這就是我們對收入指導的看法。

The next question is coming from Mark DeVries of Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的馬克‧德弗里斯。

Yes. I was hoping you could dig a little further into kind of where the loan growth is coming from? How much of it is from new customers or relatively recently added customers versus older and gaining share there? And also whether you're seeing any kind of difference in credit performance on kind of balances from newer customers versus older?

是的。我希望您能進一步深入了解貸款成長的來源？其中有多少來自新客戶或最近新增的客戶，與老客戶相比，並在其中獲得了份額？另外，您是否發現新客戶與舊客戶的信用表現在餘額上有任何差異？

Okay. So let me take loan growth first. The dynamic on loan growth has not changed. And for several quarters now, it's also our philosophy and how we run the company. About 70% of their loan growth comes from tenured Card Members and what we call tenured Card Members is Card Members who've been with us more than 12 months. And that's very much how we think about acquisition. We acquired Card Members, we develop relationships with them. Then we offer them we cross-sell products, we increase the lines, we nurture those relationships. And we do that because we understand them better. We understand their spend patterns and they understand our products better as well. And that's the driver.

好的。讓我先來看看貸款成長。貸款成長的動態沒有改變。幾個季度以來，這也是我們的理念以及我們經營公司的方式。他們大約70%的貸款成長來自終身卡會員，我們所謂的終身卡會員是指與我們合作超過12個月的卡片會員。這就是我們對收購的看法。我們獲得了持卡會員，並與他們建立了關係。然後我們向他們提供交叉銷售產品，增加產品線，培養這些關係。我們這樣做是因為我們更了解他們。我們了解他們的消費模式，他們也更了解我們的產品。那就是司機。

We don't do much balance transfers, if any at all. And we don't have promotional offers, much promotional offers also. So it's very much growing with our tenured Card Members. And it's part of our strategy to contain, if you want the credit risk and to control it. And when it comes to the credit profile of the new Card Members, we haven't changed our credit underwriting models, right? We still -- and we haven't changed as well our marketing channels and products. Well, we still skew towards positive selection in terms of credit profile. That has not changed. And I need to say that the prospects that we bring in and become recent Card Members have very good credit profile.

我們不做太多餘額轉帳（如果有的話）。而且我們沒有促銷優惠，也有很多促銷優惠。因此，我們的終身持卡會員的成長速度非常快。如果您想要信用風險並控制它，這是我們策略的一部分。至於新卡會員的信用狀況，我們的信用承保模式沒有改變，對吧？我們仍然——而且我們也沒有改變我們的行銷管道和產品。嗯，就信用狀況而言，我們仍然傾向於積極選擇。這一點沒有改變。我需要說的是，我們引進並成為新卡會員的潛在客戶擁有非常良好的信用狀況。

The next question is coming from Bill Carcache of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的比爾·卡卡什。

I wanted to follow up on your comments about customer engagement spending outpacing revenue growth. Can you speak broadly to your ability to continue to drive customer engagement with elevated investment spending, while at the same time, offsetting that margin pressure with operating expense leverage in other parts of the business. And I guess, do you anticipate positive operating leverage on an aggregate basis with revenue growth outpacing the sum of that customer engagement and operating expense combined?

我想跟進您關於客戶參與支出超過收入成長的評論。您能否廣泛地談談您透過增加投資支出繼續推動客戶參與度的能力，同時透過業務其他部分的營運費用槓桿來抵消利潤壓力。我想，您是否預期整體上會產生積極的營運槓桿作用，收入成長將超過客戶參與度和營運費用的總和？

Yes. There's a lot here. So let me first take you through customer engagement. The key thing for us, and you heard us say this for years, right? We build premium products and we price for that value. You heard say as well that over the last years, we -- the mix of the portfolio shifted more towards premium products. That premiumization of the portfolio is the key driver behind that ratio of variable customer engagement expenses to revenue. The more Platinum Card Members we bring more variable customer engagement expenses, you should expect to see.

是的。這裡有很多。因此，讓我先帶您了解客戶互動。對我們來說最關鍵的事情，你聽我們這麼說已經很多年了，對吧？我們生產優質產品，並根據該價值定價。您也聽說過，在過去的幾年裡，我們的產品組合更轉向優質產品。產品組合的高端化是可變客戶參與費用與收入比率背後的關鍵驅動因素。您應該預料到，我們帶來的白金卡會員越多，可變的客戶參與費用就越多。

But at the same time, we have a lot of initiatives to actually optimize this. We have a lot of innovation in that space. I'm going to share with you one that is driving a lot of efficiencies for us. We recently introduced the Pay with Points option where you can actually go in the app or the website, select one specific transaction and Pay with Points. So we have that either constant innovation to try to delight the customers, make their life easier and at the same time, create efficiencies in terms of the weighted average cost per point.

但同時，我們有許多舉措來實際優化這一點。我們在這個領域有很多創新。我將與您分享一項可以極大提高我們效率的方法。我們最近推出了「使用積分支付」選項，您可以實際進入應用程式或網站，選擇一項特定交易並使用積分支付。因此，我們要么不斷創新，努力取悅客戶，讓他們的生活更輕鬆，同時在每點的加權平均成本方面創造效率。

And specifically, in Q4, one of the driver of that efficiency or that variable Card Member engagement expense was the fact that we saw less point redemption with airline tickets, which is one of the most expensive cost per point that we have. That drove some efficiencies in that metric. We also saw as there was some softness in some T&E categories, less point accelerators earned, and that created as well some efficiencies there. The reason why I'm pointing that out is just to give you some example of some of the natural hedges that exist in our business model, where when you see a little bit of softness in the top line, that creates some savings as well in some expense lines.

具體來說，在第四季度，這種效率或可變的卡會員參與費用的驅動因素之一是我們發現機票積分兌換減少了，這是我們擁有的每積分最昂貴的成本之一。這提高了該指標的一些效率。我們還發現，某些 T&E 類別存在一些疲軟，獲得的積分加速器較少，也創造了一些效率。我之所以指出這一點，只是為了給您一些我們商業模式中存在的一些自然對沖的例子，當您看到營收有一點疲軟時，這也會在以下方面創造一些節省：一些費用項目。

So we guided towards a little bit of an increase in terms of the variable Card Member engagement expenses. And we're going to keep monitoring that. But I feel good about that trend. And I think that, that margin is still very strong and able to generate very strong earnings. We've committed to containing OpEx. And as I said, we expect 2024 operating expenses to be about flat to where we are ending 2023.

因此，我們引導可變卡會員參與費用略有增加。我們將繼續監控這一情況。但我對這種趨勢感覺很好。我認為，該利潤率仍然非常強勁，並且能夠產生非常強勁的收益。我們致力於遏制營運支出。正如我所說，我們預計 2024 年的營運費用將與 2023 年年底的水平基本持平。

And marketing expenses will dial up or down based on opportunities that we see space on the efficiencies that we create as well. The model works really well, as you can see, and I'm comfortable that the model is strong, and we are stress-testing that model running multiple scenarios, and it works well in terms of its ability to generate earnings over time. And I would say risk-adjusted earnings because that powerful model, why do we pay on variable Card Member engagement expenses, comes back with a multiple on the credit line. We attract positive select, we generate positive select, we attract premium Card Members who have a very strong credit profile. And I like paying for that as opposed to trying to control the credit risk down the road.

行銷費用將根據我們看到的我們創造的效率空間的機會而增加或減少。正如您所看到的，該模型運行得非常好，我對該模型的強大感到滿意，我們正在運行多個場景對該模型進行壓力測試，並且它在隨著時間的推移產生收益的能力方面運行良好。我想說的是風險調整後的收益，因為這個強大的模型，為什麼我們要支付可變的持卡會員參與費用，會以信用額度的倍數回報。我們吸引積極的選擇，我們產生積極的選擇，我們吸引擁有良好信用狀況的高級卡會員。我喜歡為此付出代價，而不是試圖控制未來的信用風險。

The next question is coming from Jeff Adelson of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的傑夫阿德爾森。

Chris and Steve, just wanted to dig into the softer T&E trends a little bit. It looks like you're seeing some softness, particularly in airline spend. You're seeing some slower point redemptions for tickets there. Just maybe give us some insight into what you're hearing and seeing from your Card Members on that front? And then just maybe in the forward book, can you help us understand what you're kind of embedding in your expectations for T&E from here. And I think in the past, you've talked about how the booking trends have been a pretty good indicator of what's to come. Maybe any comment on what you're seeing there?

克里斯和史蒂夫只是想深入了解較軟的差旅費趨勢。看起來你看到了一些疲軟的情況，尤其是在航空支出方面。您會發現那裡的門票積分兌換速度較慢。請讓我們深入了解您從持卡會員那裡聽到和看到的這方面的情況？然後，也許在前言中，您能否幫助我們了解您對 T&E 的期望中所包含的內容。我想您過去曾談到預訂趨勢如何成為未來發展的一個很好的指標。也許對你在那裡看到的有什麼評論嗎？

Yes. So T&E sequentially, the growth rate came down. I need to point out, though, that is still up 9% year-over-year. So it's a pretty strong growth rate. In terms of airline spending, if you heard, I'm sure the various airline, they all made comments about a bit of the softer demand. And since many of those customers are using an American Express card to pay for their airline ticket, we saw a similar trend. This being said, booking remains very strong on our TLS segment. I don't have the numbers in front of me, but I know they were strong.

是的。因此，T&E 的成長率依次下降。不過，我需要指出的是，這一數字仍年增 9%。所以這是一個相當強勁的成長率。就航空公司支出而言，如果您聽說過，我敢肯定各個航空公司都對需求疲軟發表了評論。由於許多客戶都使用美國運通卡來支付機票，因此我們看到了類似的趨勢。話雖如此，我們 TLS 細分市場的預訂量仍然非常強勁。我面前沒有這些數字，但我知道它們很強大。

So I don't -- we'll see whether it's the beginning of a trend or whether it's a data point. But we keep seeing a lot of strength in the partnership we have with Delta is working very, very well. Originations of new cards are very strong. And Card Members decided to redeem a bit less in Q4 with airline tickets than they did in the past. And we've seen in that choppiness as well in the past. I don't worry it's one data point. And for 2024, we haven't communicated on exactly what assumptions we're making by category. But I'm not too worried. We have a Card Member base that loves traveling, and I'm sure they're going to keep traveling.

所以我不——我們會看看這是否是趨勢的開始，或者是否是一個數據點。但我們不斷看到我們與達美航空的合作關係非常非常好。新卡的起源非常強大。持卡會員決定在第四季兌換機票的數量比過去少一些。我們過去也看到過這種不穩定的情況。我不擔心這只是一個數據點。對於 2024 年，我們尚未就我們按類別做出的具體假設進行溝通。但我不太擔心。我們有一群熱愛旅行的持卡會員，我相信他們會繼續旅行。

The next question is coming from Rick Shane of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的里克·謝恩。

Look, you guys had alluded to the fact that the reserve rate is going to go up or drift up in 2024. I'm curious if what's driving that? Presumably, it's a mix shift between loans and Card Member receivables. But I'm wondering if at any level you're also suggesting that the reserve rate on the loan portfolio is going to go up as a reflection of either -- some sort of shift there? Is it just pure mix shift as the loan portfolio grows faster than the Card Member receivables.

聽著，你們提到了 2024 年準備金率將會上升或上升的事實。我很好奇是什麼推動了這個趨勢？據推測，這是貸款和卡會員應收帳款之間的混合轉變。但我想知道您是否在任何層面上都暗示貸款組合的準備率將會上升，以反映某種變化？這是否只是純粹的混合轉變，因為貸款組合的成長速度快於持卡會員應收帳款的成長速度？

Yes. So thank you, Rick, for your question. So this is very -- this is an important point, so I'm glad you're asking the question. The first thing I want to say is that the absolute level, when you look at the delinquency rates or the write-off rates are very low in terms of our historical performance. And on the slide, I put as well the pre-pandemic levels. The write-off rate is 2% in Q4. It was 2.2% pre-pandemic, right? So we're still below where we were pre-pandemic. So in absolutely very low. Relative to our peers, which I know you know well, they're also very good. And I'm sure you noted that every competitor appear reported their numbers and experienced the same tick, but at a higher magnitude. Our tick up of 0.2 or 20 basis points is one of the lowest in the industry. So I feel good about where we are, and I feel good about the trend.

是的。謝謝你，里克，提出你的問題。所以這是非常重要的一點，所以我很高興你問這個問題。我想說的第一件事是，從我們的歷史表現來看，拖欠率或沖銷率的絕對水準非常低。在幻燈片上，我還列出了大流行前的水平。第四季的沖銷率為2%。大流行前是 2.2%，對嗎？因此，我們仍低於大流行前的水平。所以絕對非常低。相對於我們的同行（我知道你們很了解），他們也非常優秀。我相信您已經注意到，每個競爭對手似乎都報告了他們的數字並經歷了相同的變化，但幅度更大。我們的 0.2 或 20 個基點的漲幅是業內最低的之一。所以我對我們所處的位置感覺良好，對趨勢也感覺良好。

When it comes to the dynamic in the portfolio, the key driver behind this is that there's still some normalization going on here. We are moving from sub-1% write-off rate during the pandemic. As you all know on this call, this was not a sustainable level, and these rates are normalizing. And they are normalizing at a slow pace, and I like that. And the 2% is, again, a place where I feel comfortable from a credit standpoint.

當談到投資組合的動態時，背後的關鍵驅動因素是這裡仍然存在一些正常化過程。疫情期間我們的核銷率將低於 1%。正如大家在這次電話會議上所知道的那樣，這不是一個可持續的水平，而且這些比率正在正常化。他們正在緩慢地恢復正常，我喜歡這樣。從信用的角度來看，2% 再次是讓我感到放心的地方。

The other thing to expand a little bit and take a step back in terms of what kind of loan growth we are seeing. The biggest contributors in terms of loan balances are the pay overtime facility that we offered with our charge products and the co-brand cards. And so both those portfolio has very strong credit profile and better credit profile than what we call internally proprietary lending, which includes Blue Cash Everyday, for instance. So if anything, the profile of the portfolio and the mix of the portfolio is shifting and evolving more towards products that have a strong credit profile and high velocity. This being said, that normalization is happening, and that's what's creating that little tick up. And as I said in my comments, we're not quite done with that normalization. There's still a bit more to come in our minds, but not a lot.

另一件事是擴大一點，並就我們所看到的貸款成長情況退後一步。就貸款餘額而言，最大的貢獻者是我們透過收費產品和聯名卡提供的加班費便利。因此，這兩個投資組合都具有非常強大的信用狀況，並且比我們所謂的內部自營貸款（例如包括 Blue Cash Everyday）更好的信用狀況。因此，如果有什麼不同的話，那就是投資組合的概況和投資組合的組合正在向具有強大信用狀況和高週轉率的產品轉變和發展。話雖這麼說，正常化正在發生，這就是造成小幅上漲的原因。正如我在評論中所說，我們還沒有完全完成正常化。我們還有更多想法，但不是很多。

The next question is coming from Saul Martinez of HSBC.

下一個問題來自匯豐銀行的索爾·馬丁內斯。

Maybe I could just ask on capital. Is there any updated thoughts on how you're thinking about Basel endgame? You obviously your preliminary expectations of the proposal at least are that it would take you down to closer to 7%. But there is a lot of talk about that, that being softened. Just how are you thinking about capital management. You obviously increased your dividend. But how are you thinking about buybacks going forward in light of the uncertainty?

也許我可以只問資本。您對巴塞爾殘局的看法有什麼最新的想法嗎？顯然，您對該提案的初步預期至少是它會讓您的支持率下降到接近 7%。但有很多關於這一點的討論，即軟化。您如何看待資本管理？您顯然增加了股息。但鑑於不確定性，您如何看待未來的回購？

Yes. So thank you for your question. So not a lot has changed on that front outside of the fact that we've been meeting with regulators, Steve met with regulators, I met with regulators as well. And what I can tell you is that they are listening, they're engaged. And I think they understand our comments the ball is back in their camp now and they're incorporating all the comments they received from the industry, and I'm sure you've seen a lot of those comments as well. So they have a lot of work to do. Right now, we are in waiting mode.

是的。謝謝你的提問。因此，除了我們與監管機構會面、史蒂夫與監管機構會面、我也與監管機構會面這一事實之外，這方面並沒有發生太大變化。我可以告訴你的是，他們正在傾聽，他們很投入。我認為他們理解我們的評論，現在球又回到了他們的陣營，他們正在整合從行業收到的所有評論，我相信你也看到了很多這樣的評論。所以他們有很多工作要做。目前，我們正處於等待狀態。

And I think we're expecting, the current estimate is we're expecting there or at least their next version of the rules by the end of 2024. We'll see it took 10 years to get to their first drop. So we'll see when we get the next version. I'm not too concerned. I feel good about our starting point and our capital position. As you know, we generate about 30% return on equity, which means that we generate a ton of capital. And for now, we're not going to change our capital policy. The first thing we do is, of course, fund the balance sheet, then we distribute dividends. We feel very confident about the increase that we are planning to do this year. And the rest is going to go in share buybacks so that we keep capital between 10% and 11% of our risk-weighted assets. And that's what we've done for years. That's what we're going to keep doing. And we don't adapt to the Basel rule. We're running the company conservatively as well with a big buffer over the 7% rate that we have. And so nothing has changed much on that front. So more to come when we get the final rules.

我認為我們預計，目前的估計是，我們預計到 2024 年底，或至少他們的下一個版本的規則。我們會看到他們花了 10 年的時間才第一次下降。所以我們會看看何時獲得下一個版本。我不太擔心。我對我們的起點和資本狀況感覺良好。如您所知，我們的股本回報率約為 30%，這意味著我們產生了大量資本。目前，我們不會改變我們的資本政策。當然，我們做的第一件事是為資產負債表提供資金，然後分配股息。我們對今年計劃的成長充滿信心。其餘的將用於股票回購，以便我們將資本保持在風險加權資產的 10% 到 11% 之間。這就是我們多年來所做的。這就是我們將繼續做的事情。我們不適應巴塞爾規則。我們以保守的方式經營公司，並在 7% 的利率之上提供了很大的緩衝。所以這方面沒有太大改變。當我們得到最終規則時，還會有更多內容。

The next question is coming from Moshe Orenbuch of TD Cowen.

下一個問題來自 TD Cowen 的 Moshe Orenbuch。

Great. And many of the questions have been asked and answered. But hoping to follow up on a comment that you had just made about the pay overtime business. Could you talk a little bit more about the characteristics of that? You mentioned that obviously, that's going to tenured charge card customers. So the quality is very strong. Can you talk a little bit about the yield and how much you've seen in kind of growth from that product?

偉大的。許多問題已被提出並得到解答。但希望跟進您剛剛發表的有關加班費業務的評論。能多談談它的特色嗎？您顯然提到過，這將針對終身簽帳卡客戶。所以品質非常強。您能談談該產品的產量以及您看到的成長程度嗎？

Yes. The -- so your description is correct, Moshe. It's a facility that we attached to our charge card products, where they can decide if they want to revolve a portion of their bill. And the -- this is the fastest-growing category for us in terms of loan growth. It was very well received. It was very well received by the Card Members. And I don't know what else I can tell you. Remember that their charge card has a no preset limit, which is an important feature here. So it's a way for us to give them as well, and it's a painful product. So it's a way for us to give them a facility where they can revolve over a period of time. And as I said previously, the credit profile is very strong on this product. Very much because it is attached to a very premium base, right? premium Gold Card Members are using this facility and revolving from time to time.

是的。 - 所以你的描述是正確的，摩西。這是我們附加到簽帳卡產品上的功能，他們可以決定是否要循環使用部分帳單。就貸款成長而言，這是我們成長最快的類別。非常受歡迎。受到了卡會員的一致好評。我不知道還能告訴你什麼。請記住，他們的簽帳卡沒有預設限額，這是這裡的重要功能。所以這也是我們給予他們的一種方式，而且這是一個痛苦的產品。因此，這是我們為他們提供可以在一段時間內輪換的設施的一種方式。正如我之前所說，該產品的信用狀況非常好。非常重要，因為它連接到一個非常優質的底座，對嗎？高級金卡會員正在使用此設施，並且會不時輪流使用。

The next question is coming from Sanjay Sakhrani of KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

Maybe I could ask the questions regarding what's embedded in the revenue growth expectations for 2024 differently. If we look at the fourth quarter exit run rate, would that sort of target us to the low end of the guidance range? And then Christophe, you mentioned that lower rates shouldn't help, but aren't you guys liability sensitive on the charge card portfolio?

也許我可以以不同的方式提出 2024 年營收成長預期包含哪些內容的問題。如果我們看看第四季度的退出運行率，這是否會將我們的目標設定為指導範圍的低端？然後克里斯托夫，你提到較低的利率應該沒有幫助，但是你們對簽帳卡投資組合的責任不敏感嗎？

So let me take the second question first. We are slightly liability sensitive. And the key assumption for us, but the comment remains that in its totality, our total balance sheet and total funding stack level, the impact of rate cost is going to be very small to our NII. The bigger known here is what's going to happen to the beta. We've been, as an industry, trending around 0.7 on the way up. We probably got a trend 2.7% on the way down, but not immediately. And it's hard to say exactly at this point in time where we're going to be when the Fed starts cutting rates. We are making assumptions that we think are conservative, but we don't know for sure, and we'll see where we are. So there is a bit of uncertainty here. But what is -- what you know for sure is that you should not expect a big impact to our NII depending on the rate curve.

那我先回答第二個問題。我們對責任有些敏感。這是我們的關鍵假設，但評論仍然是，從整體來看，我們的總資產負債表和總資金堆疊水平，利率成本對我們的國家資訊基礎設施的影響將非常小。這裡更廣為人知的是測試版將會發生什麼事。作為一個行業，我們的上升趨勢一直在 0.7 左右。我們可能得到了 2.7% 的下降趨勢，但不是立即下降。目前很難確切地說聯準會何時開始降息。我們正在做出我們認為保守的假設，但我們不確定，我們會看看我們的情況。所以這裡有一點不確定性。但你可以肯定的是，根據利率曲線，你不應該預期我們的 NII 會受到重大影響。

Going back to the -- to your first question around revenue, I just -- I don't have a lot to say on top of what I said earlier and what I said in my prepared remarks. I'm happy to be surprised on the upside if Billed business is stronger. Card fees, we have good visibility. NII, I think the trend is very established. And on billing, as I said, we are assuming at this point in time something consistent with what we've seen in the previous quarters. And we'll see where we are at the end of the year. But if the economy rebounds, if the growth is a bit stronger than what is expected by economist and our Card Members are optimistic and keep spending. I'd be delighted to have a high Billed business to report.

回到關於收入的第一個問題，除了我之前所說的話以及我在準備好的發言中所說的之外，我沒有太多要說的。如果帳單業務更強勁，我很高興對上行情況感到驚訝。卡費方面，我們有很好的知名度。 NII，我認為這種趨勢已經非常確定。在計費方面，正如我所說，我們目前假設與我們在前幾個季度所看到的情況一致。我們將在年底看到我們的情況。但如果經濟反彈，如果成長比經濟學家的預期強一點，我們的信用卡會員就會樂觀並繼續消費。我很高興能報告高額帳單業務。

The next question is coming from Dominick Gabriele of Oppenheimer & Co.

下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer & Co. 的 Dominick Gabriele。

Steve and Chris. I was just curious about the total card growth. I mean, we all know that you've seen some really excellent account acquisitions over the last number of years. But I was just curious about total card growth versus proprietary cards-in-force growth, in particular this quarter, if there's any color you can provide on why that may diverge or what the strategy is between maybe having more proprietary cards as a percentage of total cards. Anything on that would be excellent.

史蒂夫和克里斯。我只是對卡牌的總增長感到好奇。我的意思是，我們都知道在過去幾年中您已經看到了一些非常出色的客戶收購。但我只是好奇卡總數的增長與專有卡的有效增長，特別是本季度，您是否可以提供任何顏色說明為什麼可能會出現差異，或者可能擁有更多專有卡佔總卡數的百分比之間的策略是什麼總卡數。任何關於這方面的事情都會很棒。

Yes. So we have about 140 million cards that can transact on our network. Out of the 140 million cards, about 80 million are issued by American Express. That's what we call the proprietary cards. They represent the bulk of the spend, and they drive the very vast majority of our economics. From a growth rate standpoint, if you look at cards-in-force and it's -- you'll see that in the details of our disclosures. The proprietary cards-in-force up 5% year-over-year and the total cards-in-force. So including their cards issued by network partners is up 6%. Does it answer your question?

是的。因此，我們有大約 1.4 億張卡可以在我們的網路上進行交易。在 1.4 億張卡片中，約 8,000 萬張是美國運通發行的。這就是我們所說的專有卡。它們佔了支出的大部分，並推動了我們經濟的絕大多數。從成長率的角度來看，如果您查看有效卡，您會在我們披露的詳細資訊中看到這一點。自營卡有效量年增5%，有效卡總數較去年同期增加5%。因此，如果包括網路合作夥伴發行的銀行卡，則上漲了 6%。它回答了你的問題嗎？

Very much. I really appreciate that.

非常。我真的很感激。

The next question is coming from Arren Cyganovich of Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Arren Cyganovich。

Maybe you could -- I was wondering if you could talk about the plans for the next platinum refresh in the U.S. I think the last one was on 2021 and whether or not you have any plans to do that this year and if that's in your guidance for the year as well.

也許你可以——我想知道你是否可以談談美國下一次白金更新的計劃。我認為最後一次更新是在 2021 年，以及你今年是否有計劃這樣做以及這是否在你的指導範圍內今年也是如此。

Yes. So as you know, we have committed to refreshing 40 products this year as Christophe had said. And strategically, we look at refreshing all of our products on a sort of 3- to 4-year basis. And it's important, because it's really important to make sure that we keep our products fresh, we're listening to our customers and putting in those enhancements and the extra value that they want and it enables us to make sure from a generational perspective, we are modifying those products as trends change and as our customer needs change. As far as specifically for the Platinum Card, we don't really preannounce that. And so I think you just have to wait and see.

是的。如你所知，正如 Christophe 所說，我們今年承諾更新 40 種產品。從戰略上講，我們希望每 3 到 4 年更新一次我們的所有產品。這很重要，因為確保我們的產品保持新鮮非常重要，我們正在傾聽客戶的意見，並投入這些改進和他們想要的額外價值，這使我們能夠從一代人的角度確保，我們隨著趨勢的變化和客戶需求的變化，我們正在修改這些產品。至於白金卡，我們並沒有真正預先宣布。所以我認為你只需要拭目以待。

The next question is coming from Craig Maurer of FT Partners.

下一個問題來自 FT Partners 的 Craig Maurer。

Two quick questions. Considering the strength of Delta Air Lines over the last number of years is consistently the top airline. You've clearly benefited a lot from that in terms of new card issuance and likely spend as they've been able to hold fares better. As we see airlines spend slow, does that benefit diminish? And is it something you have to think about? And second, in terms of small business, we've been pretty flat now for a couple of quarters. Curious what you're seeing under the covers there. Is this -- are you still able to issue new cards? Or -- and are you seeing any reluctance from small business to take additional products that might increase their cost beyond the baseline. I'm just trying to understand the move better small business owners.

兩個簡單的問題。考慮到過去幾年達美航空的實力，它一直是頂級航空公司。顯然，在新卡發行和可能的支出方面，您已經從中受益匪淺，因為他們能夠更好地控制票價。當我們看到航空公司支出緩慢時，這種好處是否會減少？這是你必須考慮的事情嗎？其次，就小型企業而言，我們已經連續幾季表現平平。好奇你在幕後看到了什麼。這是──你們還可以發行新卡嗎？或者，您是否發現小型企業不願意採用可能會導致成本超出基準的額外產品。我只是想更了解小企業主的舉動。

Yes. So from a small business perspective, the drive is really organic spend. We're not seeing existing small businesses spend more than they spent the year before. And that's not an American Express phenomenon. That is an industry phenomenon. As far as card acquisition within small businesses, that still remains strong. As far as small businesses looking at our platform and looking at our loans and so forth, that remains strong, and the credit quality remains strong. I think as Christophe said in his remarks, there is this phenomenon of inventory buildup, some interest rate shock and so forth. And so small businesses tend to be very, very secular. I would be much more concerned if we weren't acquiring cards, if we weren't engaging in new small businesses or if write-offs and delinquencies were higher. So at the moment, as we look at this, we truly believe this is an organic spending issue, and it's not American Express specific. I'll let Christophe talk a little bit about Delta.

是的。因此，從小型企業的角度來看，驅動力實際上是有機支出。我們沒有看到現有小企業的支出超過前一年。這並不是美國運通公司的現象。這是一個行業現象。就小型企業內部的卡片獲取而言，這種趨勢仍然強勁。就小型企業關注我們的平台、關注我們的貸款等而言，這一點仍然強勁，信貸品質仍然強勁。我認為正如克里斯托夫在演講中所說，存在庫存堆積、一些利率衝擊等現象。因此，小企業往往非常非常世俗。如果我們不取得信用卡，如果我們不從事新的小型企業，或者沖銷和拖欠率更高，我會更加擔心。因此，目前，當我們看待這個問題時，我們確實相信這是一個有機支出問題，而不是美國運通特有的問題。我會讓克里斯托夫談談達美航空。

Yes. So the Delta product is still going very, very strong. The total billing growth on the Delta product for the full year was up 15%. And we are originating a lot of new cards as well. My comment about their softness in terms of Q4. Hard to say whether it's the beginning of a trend or whether it's just a blip, time will tell. But it's still doing very, very strong and the engagement with the partner is very strong. The partnership is going strong. So I don't see any softness there at all. And I will say as well that the credit quality of those new Card Members remain very strong. I made comments about it's one of the fastest growing segment on the loan side, and it comes with very strong performance. People who travel a lot and who fly a lot tend to have strong credit quality. And we see that on the loan side, on the spend side, on the origination side. So I'm not worried about that at this stage.

是的。所以達美航空的產品仍然非常非常強勁。達美航空產品的全年總帳單增加了 15%。我們也製作了很多新卡。我對他們第四季表現疲軟的評論。很難說這是趨勢的開始還是只是曇花一現，時間會證明一切。但它的表現仍然非常非常強勁，與合作夥伴的互動也非常緊密。這種夥伴關係正在不斷加強。所以我根本看不到任何柔軟之處。我還要說的是，這些新持卡會員的信用品質仍然非常好。我評論說它是貸款方面增長最快的部分之一，並且表現非常強勁。經常旅行和經常乘坐飛機的人往往具有較高的信用品質。我們在貸款方面、支出方面、發起方面都看到了這一點。所以現階段我並不擔心這一點。

Our final question will come from Mihir Bhatia of Bank of America.

我們的最後一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

I just wanted to go back a little bit and maybe just unpack the billings growth a little bit. Maybe can you just talk about how much of that is being driven by adding new Card Members versus winning wallet share? And then just related to that same topic, is just how are you thinking about the environment for new card acquisitions? Is this $3 million level that you have been at for the last couple of quarters, the right level to think about for the next year? I understand that is dynamic and you'll change, but what have you assumed in your planning?

我只是想回顧一下，也許只是稍微解開比林斯的成長。也許您能談談增加新卡會員與贏得錢包份額所推動的比例有多少嗎？與同一主題相關的是，您如何看待新卡收購的環境？過去幾季您一直處於的 300 萬美元水準是明年考慮的正確水準嗎？我知道這是動態的，你會改變，但你在計劃中假設了什麼？

Let me talk about sort of card acquisition numbers. We go out and we look at acquiring Card Members really focus on acquiring build business and require revenue. And consistently now, if you take the first quarter out of last year, where it was a little bit more of an anomaly of 3.4 million cards, we've been around that 3 million to 2.9 million. And we will -- as long as we have line of sight into high credit quality premium Card Members, we will continue to be out there aggressively acquiring Card Members. And that range will be where we see that range today between 2.9 million, 3.1 million. We don't really provide any guidance on that. But with the amount of money we're planning on spending, I think that's a -- it's a pretty fair assumption. And we report that, but what we're really focused on is making sure that we're getting build business acquired.

讓我談談卡片獲取數量的排序。我們走出去，專注於收購持卡會員，真正專注於收購建立業務並需要收入。現在，如果你把去年第一季的情況看成是 340 萬張卡片，那麼我們的卡片數量就一直在 300 萬到 290 萬張左右。只要我們能夠關注高信用品質的優質卡會員，我們就會繼續積極收購卡會員。這個範圍將是我們今天看到的 290 萬到 310 萬之間的範圍。我們實際上並沒有就此提供任何指導。但考慮到我們計劃支出的金額，我認為這是一個相當公平的假設。我們報告了這一點，但我們真正關注的是確保我們獲得建造業務。

When you look at the composition, obviously, in a stronger environment, you're really looking for more organic growth from your existing cardholders. And I just made the comment before, where small businesses, that's not what we're seeing. And so when you look at any growth that you're seeing from a small business perspective, that is truly from new cardholders acquired. And a lot of the growth from a consumer perspective right now is new cardholders acquired, which actually, as we think about engaging with our cardholders gives me a lot of confidence going forward because as we continue to engage and not only get more wallet share, but as our Card Members get back to where they were probably before the third and fourth quarter, we believe there is upside there from a billings perspective.

當你觀察結構時，顯然，在一個更強勁的環境中，你確實在尋找現有持卡人的更多有機成長。我之前剛剛發表過評論，對於小型企業來說，這不是我們所看到的。因此，當您從小型企業的角度來看任何成長時，這確實是來自您獲得的新持卡人。從消費者的角度來看，目前的成長很大程度上是獲得了新的持卡人，實際上，當我們考慮與持卡人互動時，這給了我很大的信心，因為隨著我們繼續參與，不僅獲得了更多的錢包份額，但隨著我們的持卡會員恢復到第三和第四季度之前的水平，我們相信從比林斯的角度來看存在上升空間。

And we've talked a lot about Millennials over time. And we get on this growth trend, we get on this trajectory with these Millennials and Gen Zers where we start with a higher share of wallet, and we start with that higher share of wallet because they're used to using their American Express Card everywhere. And as they move through their life cycles, their wallets increase. And so we have a lot of confidence in the long-term lifetime value of our -- of the Millennial base and of the Gen Z base that we're now acquiring, and you see even in this fourth quarter, that is 32% now of our total spending.

隨著時間的推移，我們已經談論了很多關於千禧世代的話題。我們遵循這種成長趨勢，我們與這些千禧世代和Z 世代一起走上這條軌道，我們從更高的錢包份額開始，我們從更高的錢包份額開始，因為他們習慣在任何地方使用美國運通卡。隨著他們經歷生命週期，他們的錢包也會增加。因此，我們對我們現在收購的千禧世代和 Z 世代的長期終身價值充滿信心，即使在第四季度，現在也達到了 32%我們的總支出。

So the way to think about this right now is a lot of the growth is coming, that you're seeing is coming from new card acquisition, but there will be an organic step-up as the economy gets better. So -- and that gives us a lot of confidence of how we're positioned for future growth over the long term, which gives us confidence to say, aspirationally, we should be a 10% plus revenue company. And that's why you see the guidance that we've given this year both from a revenue perspective and EPS perspective.

因此，現在考慮這個問題的方法是，大量的成長即將到來，你看到的成長來自於新卡的獲取，但隨著經濟的好轉，將會出現有機的成長。因此，這讓我們對未來長期成長的定位充滿信心，這讓我們有信心說，我們應該成為一家營收成長 10% 以上的公司。這就是為什麼你會看到我們今年從收入角度和每股盈餘角度給出的指導。

With that, we will bring the call to an end. Thank you for joining today's call and for your continued interest in American Express. The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions. Operator, back to you.

至此，我們將結束通話。感謝您參加今天的電話會議並感謝您對美國運通的持續關注。 IR 團隊將隨時解答任何後續問題。接線員，回到您身邊。

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast replay will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.americanexpress.com shortly after the call. You can also access the digital replay of the call at (877) 660-6853 or (201) 612-7415 access code 1374-3240 after 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time on January 26 through February 7. That will conclude our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，電話會議後不久，我們的投資者關係網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上將提供網路廣播重播。您也可以在下午 1:00 後撥打 (877) 660-6853 或 (201) 612-7415（訪問代碼 1374-3240）查看通話的數位重播。東部時間 1 月 26 日至 2 月 7 日。我們今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。