美國運通 (AXP) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the American Express Q4 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加美國運通 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Kartik Ramachandran.

現在，我想將會議交給我們的主持人、投資者關係主管卡蒂克·拉馬錢德蘭先生。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Daryl, and thank you all for joining today's call.

謝謝你，達裡爾，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

As a reminder, before we begin, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance.

提醒一下，在我們開始之前，今天的討論包含有關公司未來業務和財務表現的前瞻性陳述。

These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些是基於管理層目前的預期，並受風險和不確定性的影響。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC.

今天的簡報幻燈片和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中都包含了可能導致實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異的因素。

The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的討論也包含非 GAAP 財務指標。

The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials, as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discussed.

本季的收益資料以及我們討論過的前期收益資料中包含了可比較的 GAAP 財務指標。

All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com.

所有這些都發佈在我們的網站ir.americanexpress.com上。

We'll begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results.

今天的演講首先由董事長兼首席執行官史蒂夫·斯奎裡 (Steve Squeri) 主持，他將首先介紹公司的進展和業績。

And then, Christophe Le Caillec, Chief Financial Officer, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance.

然後，財務長 Christophe Le Caillec 將對我們的財務表現進行更詳細的回顧。

After that, we'll move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Christophe.

之後，我們將與史蒂夫和克里斯托夫就結果進行問答。

With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

說完這些，讓我把話題交給史蒂夫。

Thank you, Kartik.

謝謝你，卡爾蒂克。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us.

早安，感謝您加入我們。

2024 was another strong year for American Express.

2024 年對美國運通來說又是強勁的一年。

We delivered record revenues of $66 billion for the year, up 10% on an FX-adjusted basis, achieving our long-term aspiration.

我們全年實現了創紀錄的 660 億美元收入，經外匯調整後成長 10%，實現了我們的長期願望。

We had record net income of $10 billion, with earnings per share of $14.01, up 25% for the year, which is higher than our long-term aspiration.

我們的淨收入達到創紀錄的 100 億美元，每股收益為 14.01 美元，年增 25%，高於我們的長期目標。

The great work of our colleagues around the world drove 2024 results that were strong across our key metrics, setting new records in many categories.

我們在世界各地的同事的出色工作推動了我們在 2024 年的各項關鍵指標上取得強勁成績，並在許多類別中創下了新的紀錄。

In addition to record revenues and net income, we had record levels of annual Card Member spending, record net card fees, and a record 13 million new card acquisitions.

除了創紀錄的收入和淨收入外，我們的年度持卡會員消費額、淨卡費以及新卡發卡量也都創下了歷史新高，達到 1,300 萬張。

We also saw continued high Card Member retention, best-in-class credit performance, and disciplined expense management.

我們也看到持卡會員保留率持續居高不下，信用表現一流，費用管理嚴謹。

Notably, we exited the year with increased momentum as fourth-quarter Billings growth accelerated to 8% overall, driven by robust holiday spend.

值得注意的是，在假日消費強勁的推動下，我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年，第四季度的帳單增長總體加速至 8%。

We continue to enrich our Membership Model, refreshing over 40 products globally in 2024, including the US Consumer Gold Card, which is particularly appealing to Millennial and Gen-Z consumers, as well as refreshing our Delta co-brand cards.

我們將繼續豐富我們的會員模式，並將於2024 年在全球更新40 多種產品，其中包括對千禧世代和Z 世代消費者特別有吸引力的美國消費者金卡，以及更新我們的達美航空聯名卡。

We also enhanced our dining portfolio with the acquisitions of Tock and Rooam, and we launched several new top-tier sponsorships and experiences, such as our multi-year global partnership with Formula 1.

我們還透過收購 Tock 和 Rooam 增強了我們的餐飲組合，並推出了幾項新的頂級贊助和體驗，例如與一級方程式賽車的多年全球合作夥伴關係。

Our US Small and Medium-sized enterprise customer base continue to grow, with strong new card acquisitions throughout the year.

我們的美國中小型企業客戶群持續成長，全年新卡購買量強勁。

And we saw an improvement in small business sentiment in the fourth quarter, which linked to stronger organic spending by our Small Business customers through the holiday season.

我們看到第四季度小型企業信心有所改善，這與我們的小型企業客戶在假期期間更強勁的有機支出有關。

A key driver of our growth is the ongoing global expansion of our merchant network.

我們成長的一個關鍵驅動力是我們商家網路的持續全球擴張。

We added millions of new merchant locations globally in 2024, and we reached an average of 80% coverage across our top 12 international countries, with coverage in Travel and Entertainment categories well above 80%.

2024 年，我們在全球新增了數百萬個商戶，在前 12 個國際國家的平均覆蓋率達到 80%，旅遊和娛樂類別的覆蓋率遠高於 80%。

That's an increase of 8 percentage points from three years ago.

這比三年前增加了8個百分點。

These results clearly show that our strategy of backing our customers by investing in our value propositions, coverage, marketing, technology, and talent is working.

這些結果清楚地表明，我們透過投資價值主張、覆蓋範圍、行銷、技術和人才來支持客戶的策略正在發揮作用。

As we look ahead to 2025, American Express will be celebrating a major milestone, our 175th year in business.

展望 2025 年，美國運通將慶祝一個重要的里程碑，即我們成立 175 週年。

Our company's history is one of innovation and growth - from our start in 1850 as a freight delivery company operated with horses, wagons, and trains, to becoming a global travel services company in the early 20th century, pivoting into a card-focused payments company by the 1960s, and ultimately evolving into the global premium financial and lifestyle company powered by technology we are today.

我們公司的歷史是一部創新和成長的歷史——從1850 年成立之初的一家使用馬匹、馬車和火車運營的貨運公司，到20 世紀初成為一家全球旅遊服務公司，再到轉型為一家以信用卡為重點的支付公司到 20 世紀 60 年代，我們最終發展成為如今以科技為驅動的全球優質金融和生活方式公司。

Our longevity has been fueled by talented colleagues who have delivered a steady stream of innovative products and services that are focused on serving premium consumers and businesses of all sizes, and who have stayed true to our brand that has been built on trust, security, and service since our earliest days.

我們的長盛不衰得益於才華橫溢的同事，他們不斷提供創新產品和服務，專注於服務優質消費者和各種規模的企業，並始終忠於我們建立在信任、安全和我們從一開始就提供優質的服務。

As I've discussed over the past several years, we've continued the cycle of customer focused innovation, which has been largely responsible for resetting the growth trajectory of the company.

正如我在過去幾年中所討論的那樣，我們一直延續以客戶為中心的創新週期，這在很大程度上重塑了公司的成長軌跡。

We believe our growth is sustainable.

我們相信我們的成長是可持續的。

We're confident that we will continue to bring in large numbers of new premium customers, especially Millennial and Gen-Z consumers and small businesses, while also maintaining high growth across our International business.

我們有信心，我們將繼續吸引大量新的優質客戶，尤其是千禧世代和 Z 世代消費者以及小型企業，同時保持我們國際業務的快速成長。

In looking at the external marketplace, we continue to see strategic opportunities to sustain our growth.

放眼外部市場，我們持續看到維持成長的策略機會。

For example, in the US, fee-based Consumer premium cards are the fastest growing part of the industry, and we have about 25% of those cards, indicating a continued upside opportunity.

例如，在美國，收費的消費者優質卡是業界成長最快的部分，我們擁有約 25% 的此類卡，這表明仍有持續的上行機會。

Across the industry, the number of Millennials and Gen-Z consumers with premium products are growing at an even faster rate, and we're adding highly credit-worthy customers in these cohorts faster than the industry, with substantial room to continue this growth.

在整個行業中，擁有高端產品的千禧世代和Z 世代消費者的數量正在以更快的速度增長，而且我們在這些群體中增加高信用客戶的速度比行業平均水平要快，並且還有很大的繼續成長空間。

It's clear that our premium products are resonating well with these age groups whose spending needs will continue to expand as they move forward in their lives and careers, with many likely to also start new small businesses in the coming years.

顯然，我們的優質產品與這些年齡層產生了良好的共鳴，隨著他們生活和事業的發展，他們的消費需求將不斷擴大，其中許多人也可能在未來幾年創辦新的小型企業。

In SME, we see continued growth opportunities in the US, where we expect to continue adding new small business customers and expanding our offerings to meet more of their needs beyond the card, such as lending, checking, and cash flow management.

在中小企業方面，我們看到了美國持續的成長機會，我們預計將繼續增加新的小型企業客戶，並擴大我們的服務範圍，以滿足他們在信用卡以外的更多需求，例如貸款、支票和現金流管理。

And when we look at International, which is our fastest growing segment, we're underpenetrated in both Consumer and SME.

當我們看國際市場，也就是我們成長最快的領域時，我們發現我們在消費者市場和中小企業市場的滲透率都還不夠。

We have an average of 6% spend share across our top five countries, which represent almost a third of the revenues outside the US.

我們在前五個國家的支出份額平均為 6%，占美國以外收入的近三分之一。

International SME, in particular, is growing off a small base, and with the differentiated products and capabilities we offer, we have an opportunity to continue our rapid growth in this part of our business.

尤其是國際中小企業，其發展基礎較小，憑藉我們提供的差異化產品和能力，我們有機會繼續實現這一業務領域的快速成長。

The long runway for growth we see both in International Consumer and SME, coupled with the opportunities we have to continue expanding our merchant coverage across the globe, gives us confidence that we can sustain our growth trajectory outside the US.

我們看到，國際消費者和中小企業都擁有長期的成長空間，再加上我們持續擴大全球商家覆蓋範圍的機會，這使我們有信心在美國以外保持成長軌跡。

So, as we look at this year and beyond, we're going to continue with our strategy of investing at high levels in innovative value propositions, marketing, and technology to drive growth.

因此，展望今年及以後，我們將繼續我們的策略，高水準投資於創新價值主張、行銷和技術，以推動成長。

This includes our ongoing focus on our product refresh strategy.

這包括我們對產品更新策略的持續關注。

Currently, we're refreshing between 35 and 50 products a year, and we're planning to maintain that pace in 2025, along with other enhancements to our Membership Model for both our Consumer and Commercial customers.

目前，我們每年更新 35 到 50 種產品，並計劃在 2025 年保持這一速度，同時為我們的消費者和商業客戶改進我們的會員模式。

Turning to guidance for the year, we expect 2025 revenue growth of 8% to 10%, and EPS of $15.00 to $15.50, or a 12% to 16% increase over 2024, adjusted for the Accertify gain.

談到今年的指引，我們預計 2025 年營收將成長 8% 至 10%，每股收益為 15.00 美元至 15.50 美元，或比 2024 年成長 12% 至 16%，並根據 Accertify 收益進行調整。

Regarding our thinking and establishing this year's guidance, as we've said, Card Member spending is the largest component of our total revenues.

關於我們的想法和製定今年的指導方針，正如我們所說，持卡會員消費是我們總收入中最大的組成部分。

In putting our plan together, our assumption had been that steady Billings growth we saw through most of 2024 would continue in 2025, but the fourth quarter spend numbers were stronger than we expected.

在製定計劃時，我們假設 2024 年大部分時間內看到的穩定帳單成長將在 2025 年繼續，但第四季的支出數字強於我們的預期。

While it's too soon to tell how this year will play out, we're encouraged by that increased momentum we saw exiting 2024.

雖然現在判斷今年的結果還為時過早，但我們對 2024 年底出現的強勁發展勢頭感到鼓舞。

For now, we're assuming 2025 Billings growth will be similar to the full-year 2024 number.

目前，我們假設 2025 年的比林斯成長將與 2024 年全年的成長數字相似。

However, if spend growth continues at the elevated Q4 level throughout this year, we would expect to come in at the higher end of our revenue range, all else being equal.

然而，如果今年第四季的支出成長繼續保持在較高水平，那麼在其他條件相同的情況下，我們預計收入將達到較高水平。

I'll now turn it over to Christophe for additional commentary about our results and our 2025 guidance.

現在我將把主題交給 Christophe，請他進一步評論我們的表現和 2025 年的指引。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning everyone.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早安。

Given we are at year-end, I will discuss both our Q4 and full-year results.

鑑於我們已到年底，我將討論我們的第四季和全年業績。

Starting first with our full-year performance, 2024 was a strong year with 10% revenue growth on an FX-adjusted basis and EPS of $14.01, up 25%.

首先從我們的全年業績開始，2024 年是強勁的一年，經外匯調整後營收成長 10%，每股收益為 14.01 美元，成長 25%。

And we continue to deliver superior returns driven by our spend and fee-led model, as we ended the year with an ROE of 35%.

在支出和費用主導模式的推動下，我們繼續實現優異的回報，年底我們的 ROE 達到 35%。

Notably, we also returned $7.9 billion of capital to shareholders this year, which included the Accertify gain.

值得注意的是，今年我們也向股東返還了 79 億美元的資本，其中包括 Accertify 收益。

We saw a stable spending environment for most of 2024 with an acceleration in spending as we exited the year.

我們看到，2024 年的大部分時間裡，支出環境都很穩定，並且在年底時支出有所加速。

We continued to see healthy loan growth and we achieved record net card fees.

我們的貸款繼續健康成長，並實現了創紀錄的淨卡費用。

We achieved these results while maintaining our best-in-class credit performance, investing at high levels for growth, as well as driving significant operating leverage.

我們在取得這些業績的同時，保持了一流的信用表現，進行了高水準的成長投資，並實現了顯著的經營槓桿。

In sum, the building blocks of our financial model are performing well and drive our confidence in the year ahead.

總而言之，我們財務模型的基礎部分錶現良好，並增強了我們對未來一年的信心。

Now, taking a closer look at total Billed Business performance on slide 3.

現在，我們仔細看看投影片 3 上的整體計費業務績效。

Robust spending during the holiday period by our premium customer base helped generate 8% FX-adjusted growth year over year in Q4, an uptick from the 6% range we saw for the past few quarters.

我們高端客戶群在節日期間的強勁消費推動第四季度實現了經外匯調整後的同比增長 8%，高於過去幾季的 6% 左右。

The increase in growth was broad-based across both T&E and Goods and Services categories, across geographies, and across every customer segment, as we'll see in a moment.

我們稍後會看到，旅行與娛樂以及商品與服務類別、各個地區以及各個客戶群都出現了廣泛增長。

In addition, transaction growth also accelerated 10% in the quarter, reflecting greater engagement from our Card Members.

此外，本季交易量成長也加速了 10%，反映出我們的持卡會員的參與度有所提高。

I'll highlight a few key points as we look at spend trends across our businesses over the next few slides.

在接下來的幾張投影片中，我將重點放在我們各業務支出趨勢的幾個關鍵點。

US Consumer spend was up 9% year over year in the quarter, as strong holiday spending drove momentum versus Q3.

本季美國消費者支出年增 9%，因為強勁的假期消費推動了第三季的成長動能。

Growth accelerated in both G&S and T&E categories, with performance a bit more concentrated in this strong holiday shopping period compared to the rest of the quarter.

商務與服務 (G&S) 和旅遊與娛樂 (T&E) 類別的成長均有所加速，與本季度的其他時間相比，這一強勁的假日購物期的表現更為集中。

Looking across generations, Millennial and Gen-Z spend continues to grow faster than the other age cohorts, up 16% in Q4 versus last year.

縱觀各代人，千禧世代和 Z 世代的支出繼續以更快的速度成長，第四季較去年同期成長了 16%。

Notably, all generations saw an uptick in spend this quarter compared to Q3.

值得注意的是，與第三季相比，本季所有世代的支出都有所增加。

Commercial Services spend was up 4% versus last year for the quarter, with US SME growing 3%, a bit of an uptick from the past few quarters as organic spend growth improved a bit sequentially.

本季商業服務支出較去年同期成長 4%，其中美國中小企業成長 3%，較前幾季略有上升，因為有機支出成長較上一季略有改善。

We also saw an increase in spending from our Large & Global client base, with improvement in T&E spend across client industries, as well as improvement in Goods and Services spend.

我們也看到來自大型和全球客戶群的支出增加，各個客戶行業的差旅費用 (T&E) 支出以及商品和服務支出都有所改善。

Lastly, International grew 15% in Q4 versus last year on an FX-adjusted basis, as we continue to make strides in our International business.

最後，隨著我們的國際業務持續取得進展，經外匯調整後，第四季國際業務較去年同期成長了 15%。

This rapid growth was visible across spend categories and across our Consumer and Commercial businesses, with each of our top five markets growing in mid-to-high teens.

這種快速成長體現在各個支出類別以及我們的消費者和商業業務中，我們前五名市場均實現了中高水準的成長率。

As you can see, Q4 spend results were strong across our businesses, and we feel good about the spend acceleration we saw.

如您所見，第四季度我們各項業務的支出業績表現強勁，我們對看到的支出加速感到滿意。

While growth in Q1 will be impacted by the grow-over from leap year in 2024, so far, the first three weeks of January look more in line with Q4 trends.

雖然第一季的成長將受到 2024 年閏年的影響，但到目前為止，1 月的前三週看起來更符合第四季的趨勢。

At the same time, we need to see if the momentum will sustain.

同時，我們需要看看這種勢頭是否能夠持續下去。

So, as we think about 2025, we are assuming, at this point, a similar spend environment to what we saw in 2024 on a full-year basis.

因此，當我們展望 2025 年時，我們假設此時的支出環境與 2024 年全年的支出環境類似。

Moving on to loans on slide 7.

繼續討論幻燈片 7 上的貸款。

Q4 Total Loans and Card Member Receivables grew at 9% on an FX-adjusted basis versus last year.

經外匯調整後，第四季總貸款和持卡人應收帳款較去年同期成長 9%。

As a reminder, these growth rates moderated over the course of the year as expected, as we lapped the period when customers were still building back revolving balances coming out of the pandemic.

提醒一下，這些成長率在一年內如預期般放緩，因為我們正處於客戶在疫情後仍在恢復循環餘額的時期。

With that process largely behind us, for 2025, we expect loans and receivables growth to continue to grow a bit faster than spend, and we continue to meet more -- as we continue to meet more of the borrowing needs of our premium customers.

隨著這個過程基本上結束，到2025 年，我們預計貸款和應收帳款的成長將繼續比支出成長得更快，而且我們將繼續滿足更多的需求——因為我們將繼續滿足更多優質客戶的借貸需求。

Turning to slides 8 and 9, our credit performance continues to be excellent.

轉到幻燈片 8 和 9，我們的信用表現繼續保持優異。

Delinquency rates and write-off rates are stable versus last quarter and are still below levels from five years ago.

拖欠率和註銷率與上一季相比保持穩定，且仍低於五年前的水平。

Total provision expense was down from a year ago as we built fewer reserves.

由於我們建立的儲備減少，總撥備支出比一年前有所下降。

These results are an outcome of our premium strategy that attracts high credit quality customers.

這些業績是我們吸引高信用品質客戶的優質策略的結果。

Combined with our risk management capabilities, this strategy has widened the margin of safety and ensured profitable growth.

結合我們的風險管理能力，這項策略擴大了安全邊際並確保了獲利成長。

We continue to expect some modest upward bias to write off and reserve rates over time, as we continue to acquire new customers at elevated levels and increase our share of lending from existing customers.

隨著我們繼續以較高的水平吸引新客戶並增加來自現有客戶的貸款份額，我們繼續預期註銷和準備金利率將隨著時間的推移而出現適度上行趨勢。

Turning next to revenue, starting on slide 10.

接下來討論收入，從第 10 張投影片開始。

We saw another strong year of revenue growth, with revenues up 10% on an FX-adjusted basis for both Q4 and the full year.

我們又經歷了強勁的營收成長，第四季和全年營收經外匯調整後均成長了 10%。

Discount revenue grew 8% FX-adjusted in Q4, in line with Billed Business growth.

第四季折扣收入經外匯調整後成長 8%，與帳單業務成長一致。

Our cycle of product refreshes helped drive card fee growth to 19% FX-adjusted in the quarter and fuel new card acquisition to a record level of 13 million for the year, with around 70% of new accounts acquired on fee-paying products.

我們的產品更新周期幫助推動本季卡費成長至19%（經外匯調整後），並推動全年新卡獲取量達到創紀錄的1,300 萬張，其中約70% 的新帳戶是透過付費產品獲得的。

We expect card fee growth in 2025 to continue to grow in the mid-to-high teens, but to moderate as we progress through the year.

我們預計，2025 年信用卡費用將繼續保持中高水準成長，但隨著時間的推移，成長速度將有所放緩。

Turning to slide 13, Q4 NII was up 13% on an FX-adjusted basis.

轉到第 13 頁，第四季 NII 經外匯調整後上漲了 13%。

Growth was driven by increases in revolving loan balances and net yield versus the prior year.

成長的動力來自於循環貸款餘額和淨收益率較上年同期的增加。

As expected, growth moderated this quarter as it has over the course of the year.

正如預期，本季的成長與去年同期一樣有所放緩。

An important long-term driver of yield is our ability to improve our funding mix as a result of our growing deposits program.

收益的一個重要的長期驅動力是我們透過不斷增長的存款計劃來改善融資組合的能力。

Our High-Yield Savings account balances grew 17% in 2024.

我們的高收益儲蓄帳戶餘額在 2024 年增加了 17%。

As with our premium cards, we see that our HYSA product is resonating with younger customers.

與我們的高級卡一樣，我們發現我們的 HYSA 產品受到了年輕客戶的共鳴。

Millennial and Gen-Z customers make up over half of the accounts and about a third of the total balances today.

千禧世代和 Z 世代客戶佔目前帳戶的一半以上，約佔總餘額的三分之一。

As we think about 2025, we expect NII growth to outpace the growth in Total Loans and Receivables, supported by growth in revolving balances.

展望 2025 年，我們預期 NII 成長將超過總貸款和應收帳款的成長，這得益於循環餘額的成長。

And while there is uncertainty in the rate outlook, as a reminder, we are mildly liability-sensitive with a relatively small impact from changes to the Fed funds rate.

雖然利率前景存在不確定性，但需要提醒的是，我們對負債較為敏感，聯邦基金利率變動的影響相對較小。

I'll turn next to expenses on slide 15.

接下來我將在第 15 張投影片上討論費用問題。

In Q4, the VCE to revenue ratio was 43%.

第四季度，VCE 與營收比率為 43%。

Rewards expense in particular grew 15% in the fourth quarter, largely driven by the slow growth in rewards expense in the prior year.

第四季的獎勵支出尤其成長了 15%，這主要受去年獎勵支出成長緩慢的影響。

In addition, as we mentioned last quarter, we made some small changes to the program that are good for both customers and the overall economics of the program, but drive a very small increase in the URR in the short term.

此外，正如我們上個季度提到的那樣，我們對該計劃做了一些小的改動，這些改​​動對客戶和計劃的整體經濟都有好處，但在短期內會導致 URR 的小幅增長。

Stepping back, we expect overall VCE expenses to grow slightly faster than revenues in 2025, as we continue to invest in our products and drive Card Member engagement, and as our portfolio continues to become more premium.

回顧一下，我們預計到 2025 年，整體 VCE 支出的成長速度將略快於收入，因為我們將繼續投資於我們的產品並推動持卡會員的參與，並且我們的產品組合將繼續變得更加優質。

We expect rewards growth to remain a bit elevated in Q1 as a result of the URR model changes from a year ago, before growing more in line with the historical trend.

我們預計，由於 URR 模型與一年前相比發生了變化，第一季的獎勵成長將保持略高水平，然後才會更加符合歷史趨勢。

We ended the year with $6 billion in marketing expenses, up 16% for the full year, as we invested at elevated levels based on the attractive growth opportunities we saw.

由於我們看到有吸引力的成長機會，因此我們加大了對行銷費用的投入，年底我們的行銷費用為 60 億美元，全年成長 16%。

Given the significant increase of the investment pool in 2024, we expect a modest increase in marketing expense for 2025.

鑑於 2024 年投資池的大幅增加，我們預計 2025 年的行銷費用將小幅增加。

Finally, operating expenses for the quarter were down 1% versus last year at $4.2 billion.

最後，本季的營運費用較去年同期下降 1% 至 42 億美元。

On a full-year basis, operating expenses of $14.6 billion were down 2%.

全年營業費用為 146 億美元，下降 2%。

Excluding the gain on sale of the Accertify business in Q2, operating expenses were up 1% for the full year.

除去第二季出售 Accertify 業務的收益，全年營業費用上漲了 1%。

In 2025, we expect operating expenses to grow in low-single digits versus 2024 levels, adjusted for the Accertify gain.

到 2025 年，我們預計營運費用將以低於 2024 年的個位數成長，並根據 Accertify 收益進行調整。

This continues our strong record -- track record of disciplined expense management, as we maintain the low levels of growth from last year, while still investing in key areas such as technology.

這延續了我們強勁的記錄——嚴格的費用管理記錄，因為我們保持了去年的低成長水平，同時仍在技術等關鍵領域進行投資。

Let me move now to capital on slide 16.

現在讓我轉到第 16 張投影片上的首都。

Our Q4 CET1 ratio was 10.5% and continues to be within our 10% to 11% range.

我們第四季的 CET1 比率為 10.5%，並繼續保持在 10% 至 11% 的範圍內。

We returned $7.9 billion of capital to our shareholders for the year, including $2 billion of dividends and $5.9 billion of share repurchases.

我們今年向股東返還了 79 億美元的資本，其中包括 20 億美元的股息和 59 億美元的股票回購。

In 2025, we also expect to increase our quarterly dividend by 17% to $0.82 per share, consistent with our approach of growing our dividend in line with earnings, and our 20% to 25% target payout ratio.

2025 年，我們也預計將季度股息增加 17% 至每股 0.82 美元，這符合我們根據收益增加股息的做法以及 20% 至 25% 的目標派息率。

With this planned increase, we expect to more than double the dividends since the beginning of 2019.

隨著此次計畫中的增幅，我們預計自 2019 年初以來股息將增加一倍以上。

We have also reduced the share count by 17%, demonstrating our confidence in the sustainability of earnings of our differentiated model.

我們也將股票數量減少了17%，顯示我們對差異化模式獲利可持續性的信心。

This brings me to our 2025 guidance.

這讓我想到了我們 2025 年的指導。

We continue to run our business with an aspiration to achieve 10%-plus revenue growth and mid-teens EPS growth.

我們將繼續經營我們的業務，目標是實現 10% 以上的收入成長和 15% 左右的每股盈餘成長。

As Steve noted, for the full year 2025, we expect revenue growth between 8% to 10% and earnings per share between $15.00 and $15.50. The EPS range reflects 12% to 16% growth year over year, adjusted for the Accertify gain in 2025.

正如史蒂夫所說，我們預計 2025 年全年營收將成長 8% 至 10%，每股收益將達到 15.00 美元至 15.50 美元。 EPS 範圍反映出年增 12% 至 16%，並根據 2025 年的 Accertify 收益進行了調整。

I'll note that the revenue guidance reflects a balance between the spend environment we saw for most of the year and the acceleration in spend growth we saw in Q4.

我要指出的是，收入預期反映了我們在一年中大部分時間看到的支出環境與我們在第四季度看到的支出成長加速之間的平衡。

If the spend momentum we saw in Q4 were to continue, we would expect revenue growth to be closer to the high end of the range, all else equal.

如果我們在第四季度看到的支出勢頭能夠持續下去，我們預計在其他條件相同的情況下，收入成長將更接近該範圍的高端。

Our guidance also factors in a range of scenarios based on what we are seeing in our business today.

根據我們目前業務的現狀，我們的指導也考慮了一系列情景。

It assumes a stable economy and reflects what we know today about the regulatory and competitive environment.

它假設經濟穩定，並反映了我們今天所了解的監管和競爭環境。

At the same time, there is uncertainty in the environment, whether in tax policy, interest rates or currency movements.

同時，環境也存在不確定性，無論是稅收政策、利率或貨幣走勢。

Our outlook is based on the FX rates as they are today.

我們的展望是基於今日的外匯匯率。

As a global company, the strengthening of the US dollar is a headwind to our growth.

作為一家全球性公司，美元走強對我們的成長來說是一個阻力。

In closing, as you heard, 2024 was a strong year for the company.

最後，正如您所聽到的，2024 年對於公司來說是強勁的一年。

We are well positioned to continue our track record of strong growth into 2025, and we feel good about the year ahead.

我們已做好準備，將在 2025 年繼續保持強勁成長勢頭，並對未來的一年充滿信心。

With that, I will now turn the call back over to Kartik, and we will take your questions.

說完這些，我現在將電話轉回給卡蒂克，我們將回答你們的問題。

Thank you, Christophe.

謝謝你，克里斯托夫。

Before we open up the lines for Q&A, I will ask those in the queue to please limit yourselves to just one question.

在我們開始問答環節之前，我請排隊的觀眾只問一個問題。

Thank you for your cooperation.

謝謝您的合作。

And with that, the operator will now open up the line for questions.

這樣，接線員就會開始回答問題。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

（操作員指示）瑞安·納什（Ryan Nash），高盛。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Morning, Ryan.

早安，瑞安。

I didn't want to disappoint you, Steve, so I am going to ask about revenue growth.

史蒂夫，我不想讓你失望，所以我要問收入成長的情況。

So, you gave a lot of different comments.

所以，你給了很多不同的評論。

Obviously, 8% to 10% -- you're exiting at 10%.

顯然，8% 到 10% —— 你以 10% 退出。

You highlighted that Billings started the year at an elevated level similar to the fourth quarter.

您強調指出，比林斯今年年初的業績與第四季類似，處於較高水準。

So Steve, maybe just talk a little bit about what could be the potential headwinds to revenue growth that would put you towards the lower end.

所以史蒂夫，也許可以稍微談談哪些因素可能會影響你的收入成長，從而使你的收入處於較低水平。

And I guess, given GDP is strong, you've acquired a ton of cards in 2024, why is 2025 not in line with sort of the aspirational revenue growth, given it feels like this is sort of the right kind of environment where we could see that type of top-line growth?

我想，鑑於 GDP 強勁，你在 2024 年獲得了大量卡，為什麼 2025 年不符合期望的收入增長，因為感覺這在某種程度上是合適的環境，我們可以看到這種類型的營業額增長了嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So, I would say that it is in line.

因此，我想說這是符合的。

I mean, we've got -- we give a range, and that range has our top end.

我的意思是，我們給出了一個範圍，並且該範圍是我們的最高值。

The 10% at the top end is in line with our long-term aspiration.

最高端的10%符合我們的長期願望。

Just like this year, we did hit our long-term aspiration, not only for the quarter, but for the year on a full-year basis.

就像今年一樣，我們確實實現了我們的長期目標，不僅是本季的目標，而且是全年的目標。

So what would cause you to go sort of below, middle, or at?

那麼，什麼原因會導致您處於以下、中間或處於的狀態呢？

I think what you have to look at last year is a lot of our Consumer customers were building balances.

我認為你必須看看去年我們的許多消費者客戶都在建立餘額。

And so, you had some pretty strong NII growth, and that sort of moderated a little bit as we got into the year.

因此，NII 的成長非常強勁，但進入今年之後，這種成長勢頭有所緩和。

So, if you look at it, it really does come down to a Billings story for 2025.

所以，如果你看一下，它實際上就是 2025 年的比林斯故事。

And I think the way that we've guided is absolutely right.

我認為我們指導的方式是完全正確的。

We've guided that, if in fact Billings are like they were in the fourth quarter, you will see us at the top end of the revenue range.

我們的指導是，如果事實上 Billings 的狀況與第四季度一樣，那麼您將看到我們的收入處於範圍的最高端。

And as Christophe said, and I said, all else being equal, you don't have any sort of surprises.

正如克里斯托夫和我所說，在其他所有條件相同的情況下，你不會遇到任何意外。

And as we've said at your conference -- just giving you another plug for your conference -- it really becomes Billings.

正如我們在你們的會議上所說的那樣 — — 只是為你們的會議再做一次宣傳 — — 它確實變成了比林斯。

And I think if Billings continue at where they were in the fourth quarter, then I think what you will see is us at the top end of that revenue range.

我認為，如果 Billings 繼續保持第四季度的水平，那麼我們將處於該收入範圍的最高端。

If you see them where they were for the whole year, you can assume we'll be in the middle.

如果您看到他們全年的位置，您可以假設我們處於中間。

And I don't think this will happen, but this is why you give ranges.

我不認為這會發生，但這就是你給出範圍的原因。

If they were below last year, you would be at the lower end.

如果他們的水平低於去年，那麼您就處於較低水平。

So I think it really, truly is a Billings story.

所以我認為這確實是一個比林斯的故事。

I think we're very confident with card fees.

我認為我們對卡費非常有信心。

We've had 26 consecutive quarters with double-digit card fees.

我們的卡費已連續 26 個季度達到兩位數。

We expect that to continue more to the mid-teens, to the lower-high teens.

我們預計，這一趨勢將持續至十幾歲中期至十幾歲下期。

And NII will continue, albeit at a little bit of a lower growth rate than you saw in the first two quarters of last year.

儘管NII的成長率會比去年前兩季略低，但NII仍將持續成長。

So I think the guide is truly in line with what we said.

所以我認為該指南確實符合我們所說的。

I mean, last year, we went 9% to 11%, and we came in at 10% and we said it was about Billings.

我的意思是，去年我們的成長率從 9% 上升到了 11%，而今年我們的成長率達到了 10%，我們說這與比林斯有關。

And we got Billings in the fourth quarter, which pushed us over the line.

我們在第四節得到了比林斯，這使我們越過了界限。

So, we're just providing guidance that incorporates all those scenarios.

因此，我們只是提供涵蓋所有這些場景的指導。

Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

桑傑薩克拉尼（Sanjay Sakhrani），KBW。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Maybe just -- well, thank you, Steve, for getting in front of that question on the revenue guide.

也許只是——好吧，謝謝你，史蒂夫，回答了有關收入指南的這個問題。

I appreciate that.

我很感激。

I guess just a follow-up.

我猜只是後續行動。

If we were to think about where the acceleration came from in spending, I know, Christophe, you kind of mentioned it was balanced.

如果我們思考支出加速來自何處，我知道，克里斯托夫，你提到它是平衡的。

But maybe, can we get a little bit more deeper into that, so that we can figure out how much it could sustain itself over the course of the year?

但也許，我們是否可以對此進行更深入的研究，以便我們能夠弄清楚它在一年內能夠維持多少？

And then -- so is it more discretionary versus travel type?

那麼 —— 與旅行類型相比，它是否更具自由裁量權？

And then if we think about the upside to the revenues, I mean, do you think that there would be an upside to the EPS range or that's pretty static?

然後，如果我們考慮收​​入的上升空間，我的意思是，您是否認為每股收益範圍會有上升空間，還是相當穩定？

No.

不。

So, let me deal with the EPS range.

所以，讓我來處理一下 EPS 範圍。

I mean, one of the things that we've done over the years is, if we've had opportunities to invest, we've invested.

我的意思是，這些年來我們一直在做的事情之一就是，如果我們有投資機會，我們就會投資。

Now, just take a look at this year.

現在，我們來看看今年。

This year, we provided our guidance at the beginning of the year.

今年我們在年初就給了指導。

It was obviously lower than what we ended the year with, and our expectation was that we were going to reinvest the Accertify gain, but we wound up using that to buy shares back, and we increased our marketing by $800 million.

這顯然低於我們年底的水平，我們預計我們將重新投資 Accertify 的收益，但我們最終用它來回購股票，並將行銷費用增加了 8 億美元。

So, we want to keep the flexibility if we have good investment options to invest back in the business.

因此，如果我們有良好的投資選擇來重新投資於業務，我們希望保持靈活性。

Having said that, if in fact we had a year like we had this year, where not only do we have good investment options, but we could also exceed EPS, we would do that.

話雖如此，如果我們真的有像今年這樣的一年，不僅擁有良好的投資選擇，而且還可以超越每股收益，我們就會這樣做。

So, I think as you start to get to the high end of that revenue range, what winds up happening is management has to make a decision.

因此，我認為當你開始達到該收入範圍的高端時，管理層最終必須做出決定。

Do we reinvest in the business?

我們要對該業務進行再投資嗎？

Do we drop some more of that back to shareholders?

我們是否應該將更多的收益回饋給股東？

And that'll be a decision that we will make on an ongoing basis as we see what the opportunities would be, whether those be opportunities in technology, whether those be opportunities in marketing, more value proposition, and so forth.

我們將不斷做出這個決定，因為我們會發現其中存在哪些機會，無論是技術領域的機會，還是行銷方面的機會，還是更多的價值主張等方面的機會。

So we want to leave ourselves that flexibility to be able to make those investments.

因此，我們希望保留一定的彈性，以便能夠進行這些投資。

But having said that, there is the top end to the range of $15.50. It is at 16% growth, and that is more likely to happen if you have higher revenue growth.

但話雖如此，最高價格也只要 15.50 美元。成長率為 16%，如果收入成長率更高，則更有可能實現這一目標。

Again, with the commentary that I made, that we could make the decision that we want to invest that back in.

再說一遍，根據我所發表的評論，我們可以做出是否重新投資的決定。

So, it's plausible that that in fact would happen.

因此，事實上發生這種情況是有可能的。

As far as Billings go for the quarter, and I'll let Christophe comment a little bit more, I think what you saw across the board, you saw Consumer come up.

就本季的帳單而言，我會讓克里斯托夫再多評論一下，我認為從各方面來看，您都看到消費者的支出有所增加。

It was 9%, which was [3] (corrected by company after the call) points above where we had been running.

這一比例為 9%，比我們之前的運作水準高出 [3] 個百分點（公司在通話後進行了更正）。

We saw more organic spend lift in SME, which made SME from 1% to 3%, and that's still not where we want to be from an SME perspective.

我們看到中小企業的有機支出有了更多的提升，這使得中小企業的支出比例從 1% 上升到了 3%，但從中小企業的角度來看，這仍然不是我們想要達到的水平。

And International continues to perform very, very well, both from an SME perspective and from a Consumer perspective, also picking up 2 points.

無論從中小企業角度或從消費者角度來看，國際市場持續表現非常出色，也獲得了 2 個百分點。

Travel was higher this particular quarter, and particularly airline.

本季旅行量有所成長，尤其是航空旅行。

Airline doubled sequentially quarter over quarter, up 13%.

航空公司業務季增一倍，達 13%。

The more surprising number, I think, was front of the cabin, up 19%, and restaurant continues to be strong.

我認為，更令人驚訝的數字是機艙前部的銷售額增長了 19%，而且餐廳的銷售額繼續保持強勁。

So, T&E was very, very strong in the quarter for us.

因此，本季我們的 T&E 表現非常強勁。

And Christophe, I don't know if you want to add anything else.

克里斯托夫，我不知道您是否還想補充什麼。

I don't have a lot because you covered most of it.

我沒有太多，因為你涵蓋了大部分內容。

The only thing I will say is that the holiday shopping season was especially strong for us.

我唯一想說的是，假日購物季對我們來說尤其強勁。

And you asked a question about the sustainability, and that's the key word, right.

您問了一個關於永續性的問題，這就是關鍵字，對吧。

And the team here is looking at whether it's going to expand into 2025.

這裡的團隊正在研究是否要擴展到 2025 年。

That's the key question.

這是關鍵問題。

And that's a real -- it's really hard to answer this in a definitive way.

這是一個真正的問題——很難明確地回答這個問題。

As I said in my remarks, the first three weeks of January very much look like in line with what we saw in Q4.

正如我在發言中所說，一月份前三週的情況與第四季的情況非常一致。

But there's like 49 more weeks to come, and we don't know how it's going to play.

但還有大約 49 週的時間，我們不知道情況會如何發展。

So, more to come on this, but what we saw so far looks very strong.

因此，對此還有更多內容，但我們目前看到的情況看起來非常強勁。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

瑞銀的埃里卡·納賈里安（Erika Najarian）。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Just wanted to continue to unpack the Billings story for 2025.

只是想繼續解讀 2025 年的比林斯故事。

When I look at the proprietary net cards acquired, it looked like it slowed down a bit in the fourth quarter after being up double digits in the second and third quarter, of course, up 6.5% year over year.

當我查看所收購的專有網卡時，它似乎在第二季度和第三季度實現兩位數增長之後在第四季度有所放緩，當然，同比增長了 6.5%。

As we think about what's going to drive the Billings strength in 2025, particularly in light of, Christophe, your comment about modest increase in marketing expenses, should we think about -- what is the split between an increase in new cards acquired in terms of versus -- that 6.5%, versus better spend per account?

當我們思考什麼將推動 2025 年 Billings 的實力時，特別是考慮到 Christophe，你提到的營銷費用適度增加，我們是否應該考慮——新卡購買量的增長與與— — 那6.5% 相比，與每個帳戶更好的支出相比呢？

We noticed, of course, that spend per account was up a little bit in the fourth quarter, up 3% versus 2% for the year.

當然，我們注意到，第四季度每個帳戶的支出略有增加，成長了 3%，而全年為 2%。

Yeah.

是的。

So, there's a lot in your question, Erika.

所以，Erika，你的問題有很多內容。

Let me try to address most of the points.

讓我嘗試解答大部分問題。

The first thing is that it's very hard to read a lot in the quarterly distribution of NCA.

首先，在 NCA 的季度分佈中很難讀懂很多內容。

And there is definitely not a good alignment between the marketing spend in a quarter and the NCA in the quarter.

而且一個季度的行銷支出和該季度的 NCA 之間肯定沒有很好的一致性。

There is like a time difference between the two because of the accounting around how we account for the welcome incentives.

由於我們如何核算歡迎激勵措施，兩者之間存在時間差。

But the point here is that we invested a lot in 2024, and we got a lot of cards, 13 million cards, which is a record for the company.

但這裡的重點是，我們在 2024 年投入了很多，我們獲得了很多卡，1300 萬張卡，這對公司來說是一個記錄。

As you think about how this is going to play out and the math we're doing about the 2025 spend, as you know, the way we think about Billing growth is like we split it between what's coming from this recently acquired Card Members, what's coming from organic, which are -- the growth coming from the tenured Card Members, and the last piece of the puzzle is attrition.

當你思考這將如何發展，以及我們對 2025 年支出的計算時，正如你所知，我們對賬單增長的看法是，我們將其分為來自最近獲得的持卡會員的收入、增長來自有機成長，也就是來自長期持卡會員的成長，而最後一個因素是流失。

The expectation that we have for 2025 around attrition is consistent with what we've seen over the last, I would almost say, four or five years, is that it's going to be like very stable, very low.

我們對 2025 年人員流失率的預期與過去四、五年的情況一致，我幾乎可以說，人員流失率將非常穩定，非常低。

There's not a lot of either attrition going on here in terms of the Billing growth.

從帳單成長的角度來看，這裡並沒有發生太多的人員流失。

The contribution coming from organic is the one that is the hardest to predict.

來自有機物的貢獻是最難預測的。

And that's the source of the softness we saw in Q4.

這就是我們在第四季看到的疲軟的根源。

And that's what, you know, is the positive performance that we saw – sorry, the softness we saw in 2024.

這就是我們所看到的正面表現——抱歉，是我們在 2024 年看到的疲軟表現。

And that's the organic that was stronger in Q4.

這就是第四季更加強勁的有機成長。

So it's hard to say how that organic is going to perform in 2025, but it's the source of the volatility for sure.

因此很難說 2025 年有機產品會如何表現，但它肯定是波動的根源。

And we provided some of the details in the past, but I would say [about] (added by company after the call) a good 7% of the Billing growth comes from these new customers.

我們過去提供了一些細節，但我想說（公司在通話結束後補充道）7% 的帳單增長來自這些新客戶。

And the balance is typically the organic spend and the attrition.

而平衡通常是有機支出和人員流失。

Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬克‧德弗里斯 (Mark DeVries)。

Thanks.

謝謝。

As we've been discussing, you're seeing accelerating Billed Business growth into year-end.

正如我們所討論的，您將看到年底的帳單業務成長加速。

We're also getting consumer and business confidence that's really been climbing.

消費者和企業信心也不斷增強。

So Steve, I was hoping to hear about what you may have learned, both from any conversations you've had with customers recently about kind of their optimism and spend, and also just looking at your historic Billed Business numbers and how that has historically kind of responded to rising confidence.

所以史蒂夫，我希望聽到你可能了解到的情況，無論是從你最近與客戶就他們的樂觀情緒和支出進行的對話中，還是從你的歷史賬單業務數據以及歷史上這些數字是如何變化的反應不斷增強的信心。

Well, I think we saw a rise in confidence in the fourth quarter.

嗯，我認為我們在第四季度看到了信心的上升。

Certainly, you saw it from a Consumer perspective, 9%.

當然，從消費者的角度來看，這一比例為 9%。

I'll just go back and comment on Travel.

我會回去對旅行發表評論。

I mean, Travel traditionally for us, especially airline in the fourth quarter, is not a big number, but it doubled sequentially and front of the cabin.

我的意思是，對我們來說，傳統的旅行，特別是第四季度的航空旅行，並不是一個很大的數字，但它環比增長了一倍，並且是客艙前部的。

I think front of the cabin is a really good indicator of consumer confidence.

我認為機艙前部是反映消費者信心的一個很好的指標。

Because what you do is when people don't have confidence, they may not cancel a trip, but they may downgrade the hotel, downgrade the airlines, the class of service, and so forth.

因為當人們沒有信心時，他們可能不會取消旅行，但可能會降低飯店、航空公司、服務等級等等。

So, I think we're seeing more consumer confidence.

因此我認為我們看到了消費者信心的增強。

We've done a survey of small businesses and the sentiment is really, really good.

我們對小企業進行了調查，情緒非常非常好。

And it's higher than it's been in a long time.

而且這一數字比很長一段時間以來的任何時候都要高。

And I think we saw that come up from an organic growth perspective.

我認為我們從有機成長的角度看到了這一點。

International has just been strong.

國際形勢一直強勁。

International has been a strong story for us since two years after the COVID.

自從新冠疫情爆發兩年以來，國際市場一直是我們關注的焦點。

It has just been -- it's been marching on.

它只是——它一直在前進。

So, I think that that's what gives us hope for the year that this will continue.

所以，我認為這給了我們對今年能夠繼續保持這種勢頭的希望。

But again, hope is not a plan.

但同樣，希望不等於計畫。

And so, we do our plan based upon what we saw at the time of the plan.

因此，我們根據計劃制定時看到的情況來製定計劃。

And as we look at the first couple of months in the first quarter, we'll see where we are.

當我們回顧第一季的前幾個月時，我們就會知道我們所處的境地。

And provided that we have this continued growth, we would expect again to be at the high end of the range from a revenue perspective.

如果我們保持這種持續成長的勢頭，我們預計收入將再次達到較高水平。

The only thing that I will throw out there from a timing perspective is that we will have one less day in this first quarter due to leap year.

從時間角度來說，我唯一要指出的是，由於閏年，今年第一季的天數將減少一天。

So, we'll have to -- we'll manage that.

所以，我們必須──我們會做到這一點。

But we like to look at things on a days mix adjusted basis anyway.

但無論如何，我們喜歡根據每日組合調整來看待事物。

And so, we'll be able to see through that and determine what that will mean for the second quarter.

因此，我們將能夠看透這一點，並確定這對第二季度意味著什麼。

So I think there's more to come.

所以我認為接下來還會有更多。

But I think the basic story here is there is consumer confidence at this point.

但我認為，目前的基本狀況是消費者信心尚可。

There is small business confidence.

小型企業信心十足。

We just don't want one quarter to color what a whole year is going to be.

我們只是不希望一個季度的業績影響全年的業績。

We'd like to see that be repetitive before we do anything with it.

在採取任何行動之前，我們希望看到這一點能夠重複發生。

Craig Maurer, FT Partners.

克雷格·莫瑞爾（Craig Maurer），FT Partners 合夥人。

Yeah.

是的。

Good morning, and thanks.

早安，謝謝。

Wanted to -- I had two questions.

想——我有兩個問題。

The first on SME -- we've seen very strong growth from some of your competitors, some newer competitors like Ramp.

第一個是關於中小企業——我們看到你們的一些競爭對手，一些較新的競爭對手，例如 Ramp，實現了非常強勁的成長。

And I was wondering how you feel about your customer-facing tech in SME and whether that might be an area of potential acquisition in the future?

我想知道您對中小企業面向客戶的技術有何看法，以及這是否會成為未來潛在的收購領域？

And second, Delta had very strong commentary about the co-brand card growth and their expectation for 2025 that that growth will be at least as good.

其次，達美航空對於聯名卡的成長給出了非常正面的評價，並預計 2025 年的成長至少會同樣好。

So, I wanted to ask you how that lines up with your thought process on the travel space and how the Delta book's been comping versus the rest of the book?

所以，我想問一下，這與您對旅行領域的思考過程有何關聯，以及達美航空這本書與其他書籍的對比情況如何？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

I think -- well, remember, we align very closely with Ed and his team.

我認為——請記住，我們與 Ed 和他的團隊保持著密切的聯繫。

And so, we're aligned with that, but also remember that the Delta book is not just what's spent on Delta; it is spent -- what Delta Card Members, America's best Card Members, spend on everything else.

因此，我們與此保持一致，但也請記住，達美航空的帳簿不僅僅是在達美航空上花費的錢；它被花掉了——相當於達美卡會員（美國最佳卡會員）在其他所有方面的花費。

And so, I think the remuneration that we provide Delta, we would expect that to continue to increase.

因此，我認為我們向達美航空提供的薪酬預計將繼續增加。

We're happy to see that increase, because that means spending is increasing and we're getting our piece of the pie -- we're getting our piece of the pie as well.

我們很高興看到這種成長，因為這意味著支出正在增加，我們也得到了自己的一份份額——我們也得到了自己的一份份額。

So I think it bodes well for Travel, and I think that we saw that in the fourth quarter and we hope that that continues.

所以我認為這對旅遊業來說是個好兆頭，我認為我們在第四季度看到了這一點，我們希望這種情況能繼續下去。

And I know in my conversations with Ed, he feels very confident about this year.

從我與艾德的談話中我得知，他對今年非常有信心。

And I think that's how he spoke about it during his earnings call.

我認為這就是他在財報電話會議上談論的內容。

As far as SME tech, we constantly look at ways to improve the customer experience.

就中小企業技術而言，我們不斷尋找改善客戶體驗的方法。

And obviously, I'm not going to comment on acquisitions or things like that, but we feel good about where we are, and the progress that we're making, especially with our Kabbage acquisition and so forth.

顯然，我不會對收購或類似的事情發表評論，但我們對目前的狀況和所取得的進展感到滿意，尤其是我們對 Kabbage 的收購等等。

And yes, we keep our eye on Ramp, Brex, and everybody else that's out there.

是的，我們會密切關注 Ramp、Brex 以及其他所有相關人士。

They are working from a smaller base, but they have good products and they're making some inroads, and we will make sure that we are responsive to that.

雖然他們的規模較小，但他們擁有優質的產品，並且正在取得一些進展，我們將確保對此做出回應。

Don Fandetti, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的唐‧范德蒂 (Don Fandetti)。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Steve, it looks like the Capital One-Discover merger is going to go through.

史蒂夫，看起來 Capital One 和 Discover 的合併就要成功了。

Any thoughts on the competitive impact?

對於競爭影響有什麼看法？

I know they don't have incremental affluent consumers, but it's more scale, ability to build lounges, and they do compete in SME.

我知道他們沒有增量富裕的消費者，但他們有規模，有建造休息室的能力，而且他們確實在中小企業領域競爭。

Yeah.

是的。

I think Rich is a really smart CEO, and I think it's a really good deal for them.

我認為里奇是一位非常聰明的首席執行官，而且我認為這對他們來說是一筆非常好的交易。

It picks up a debit network and picks up a lot more scale at -- I think he becomes the largest credit card lender in the United States.

它建立了一個借記網絡，並擴大了規模——我認為它成為了美國最大的信用卡貸款機構。

With that, Discover is a multifaceted company, not only with debit and credit cards, but with a bunch of loans and what have you from a car student, and so forth.

因此，Discover 是一家多元化的公司，不僅提供借記卡和信用卡，還提供一系列貸款以及汽車學生能提供的各種服務等等。

So, I think it fits very nicely in with their strategy.

所以，我認為這非常符合他們的策略。

Capital One with Venture X is making inroads within the premium space.

Capital One 攜手 Venture X 正在高端領域取得進展。

I think we continue, though, to more than hold our own.

但我認為，我們將繼續堅持自己的立場。

And they're a formidable competitor, but I think also they'll have their hands full with integrating Discover over the next couple of years.

他們是一個強大的競爭對手，但我認為他們在未來幾年內也會忙於整合 Discover。

And we will continue to evolve our products with our product refreshes.

我們將繼續透過產品更新來改進我們的產品。

And we look forward to competing with them.

我們期待與他們競爭。

Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的里克‧沙恩 (Rick Shane)。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Hey, Steve, one of the key initiatives of your team in your tenure is the increased focus on experience as an incentive versus reward.

嘿，史蒂夫，你任職期間，你的團隊的一項重要舉措就是更加重視經驗作為激勵而不是獎勵。

The impact on account growth has been significant and well understood.

這對帳戶成長的影響是巨大的，而且眾所周知。

Is it fair to say that the other benefit besides growth is that there's higher operating leverage because there's more fixed costs associated with experience than there is with traditional rewards?

除了成長之外，另一個好處是否就是更高的經營槓桿，因為與傳統獎勵相比，與經驗相關的固定成本更多？

I mean, it's a good point.

我的意思是，這是一個很好的觀點。

I think that you're absolutely right.

我認為你完全正確。

I mean, you have -- you do have more fixed costs when you're doing sort of experiential sponsorships.

我的意思是，當你進行某種體驗式贊助時，你確實會有更多的固定成本。

You have more fixed costs when you're doing lounges and things like that than you do when you're on a variable rewards basis.

當您使用休息室和類似設施時，您的固定成本會比使用可變獎勵設施時更多。

The trick is with that piece of it, though, is that as you continue to grow, it's just like technology, right.

然而，訣竅在於，隨著你不斷成長，它就像技術一樣，對吧。

You have X amount of mainframe capacity or servers or what have you.

您擁有 X 數量的大型主機容量或伺服器或其他什麼。

And as you get big, you need to add a little bit more, but then you grow into that scale.

隨著你變得越來越大，你需要再增加一點點，但隨後你就會成長到那個規模。

And so, I think that's what you're seeing as we expand some of our lounges, we'll be making some more investments, not only in new lounges, but we'll be expanding some of the existing lounges as well.

所以，我想這就是您所看到的，當我們擴大一些休息室時，我們將進行更多投資，不僅在新休息室，而且還將擴大一些現有的休息室。

But I think that's part of the calculus for us is that our Card Members, while they like the rewards, they also like all the experience and the access that we put around it.

但我認為這對我們來說是計算的一部分，我們的持卡會員不僅喜歡獎勵，他們還喜歡我們提供的所有體驗和訪問權限。

And so, by making sure that we're balancing our investments in these areas, we're able to give people the best of both worlds, and that's what we strive to do.

因此，透過確保平衡在這些領域的投資，我們就能為人們提供兩全其美的享受，這也是我們努力做到的。

And it also enables us again to lever a little bit more fixed costs across a wider base.

這也使我們能夠在更廣泛的基礎上利用更多的固定成本。

Jeff Adelson, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的傑夫·阿德爾森。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning.

早安.

Morning.

早晨。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Steve, I was wondering if you could shed a little bit more light into the planned product refresh strategy for this year, where you might go with that?

史蒂夫，我想知道您是否可以進一步介紹今年計劃的產品更新策略，您可能會採取哪些措施？

I know you previously talked about refreshing every three to four years, and Platinum -- US Platinum is one that's sort of been sitting out there since 2021.

我知道您之前談到每三到四年更新一次，而白金——美國白金是自 2021 年以來一直存在的白金之一。

And Christophe, I was wondering if you could maybe shed a little bit more light into your credit commentary.

克里斯托夫，我想知道您是否可以對您的信用評論進行更詳細的說明。

The credit's been doing pretty well.

信貸表現一直很好。

It seems like it's outperformed what you've been looking for, stable this year.

看起來它的表現超出了你所期待的，今年很穩定。

Can you talk about why you might be expecting a little bit of a modest increase from here?

您能談談為什麼您會預期從現在開始會有小幅成長嗎？

Is that conservatism on your part, or do you think you could actually see a better result than that?

這是您的保守做法嗎，或者您認為實際上可以看到比這更好的結果？

Yeah.

是的。

So, I'll disappoint you with the first answer.

因此，我的第一個答案會讓您失望。

But we're going to do between 35 and 50.

但我們要做的是在35到50之間。

I'm not going to comment on which ones and pre-announce.

我不會對哪些進行評論並預先宣布。

I think that we'll let you speculate on what's going to happen.

我想我們會讓你猜測接下來會發生什麼。

But yeah, we look to refresh products on an ongoing basis and also when we feel the need that those products need refresh.

但是的，我們會持續尋找更新產品的方法，當我們覺得這些產品需要更新時，我們也會進行更新。

And so, you'll just have to wait and see what we come out with, but we got 11 more months to go.

所以，你只需要等待，看看我們會推出什麼，但我們還有 11 個月的時間。

So good morning, Jeff.

早安，傑夫。

On the credit metrics, the first thing that I'm going to say is that we are still materially below where we were pre-COVID, unlike, I think, most of our competitors.

在信用指標方面，我首先要說的是，與我們的大多數競爭對手不同，我們的信用指標仍遠低於新冠疫情之前的水平。

So that tells you something about the performance from a credit standpoint.

因此，從信用角度來看，這可以告訴你一些關於表現的資訊。

It says as well that all the growth that we generated over the last few years was very much focused in the premium space.

這也表明，過去幾年我們實現的所有成長都集中在高端領域。

So, I like that.

所以，我喜歡這個。

So, the comment on the upward bias, I made a similar comment at the beginning of last year, and it turned out that the credit metrics were actually fairly stable, especially towards the later part of the year.

因此，關於上行傾向的評論，我在去年年初就發表了類似的評論，事實證明，信貸指標實際上相當穩定，特別是在今年下半年。

I still believe that those metrics should trend up a little bit while remain best in class.

我仍然相信這些指標會略有上升，同時仍保持最佳水平。

They're going to trend up because we're acquiring a lot of customers, and there’s going to be some seasoning happening for those vintages.

由於我們擁有大量客戶，這些葡萄酒的銷售量會呈現上升趨勢，而這些葡萄酒的品質也會逐漸提高。

And the performance -- those metrics are so low, so good that, to some extent, they can only go up a little bit from here.

至於表現，這些指標如此之低，如此之好，以至於在某種程度上，它們只能從現在開始稍微上升一點。

But these are -- we're very comfortable with the performance on the credit side.

但這些都是──我們對信貸方面的表現非常滿意。

The premiumness of the strategy is just working and translating really well in the credit performance.

策略的優質性確實發揮了作用，並在信用表現中得到了很好的體現。

We're issuing premium products, and that attracts a lot of very low credit risk customers.

我們正在發行優質產品，這吸引了大量信用風險極低的客戶。

And so, where we are, it's just like -- it's like a very good position.

所以，我們現在所處的位置非常好。

And I hope that by the time I get to -- we get to the end of the year, we're looking at these rates, and I can say I was wrong and the credit was stable.

我希望到今年年底的時候，當我們查看這些利率時，我可以說我錯了，信貸是穩定的。

But I think in the long run, the trend is that you should expect those metrics to trend up a little bit, very modest, but a little bit.

但我認為從長遠來看，趨勢是這些指標應該會略有上升，雖然幅度很小，但確實有一點。

Cris Kennedy, William Blair.

克里斯甘迺迪，威廉布萊爾。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Marketing investment has increased a lot in recent years.

近年來行銷投入加大。

Can you just talk about how the allocations have evolved between the different buckets, such as customer acquisition, general brand marketing, and sponsorship activity?

您能否談談不同類別之間的分配是如何演變的，例如客戶獲取、一般品牌行銷和贊助活動？

Thank you.

謝謝。

General brand sponsorship has been fairly stable over the past years.

過去幾年來，一般品牌贊助一直相當穩定。

And the lion's share of the growth that you saw in marketing, so say over the last 12 months, the $800 million between last year and this year, the lion's share of that is going into acquisition.

您在行銷方面看到的成長的最大份額，也就是過去 12 個月中，去年到今年的 8 億美元，其中的最大份額用於收購。

Then, we split it between what we call consumer acquisition versus prospect acquisition.

然後，我們將其分為所謂的消費者獲取和潛在客戶獲取。

Consumer acquisition -- customer acquisition, sorry, refers to upgrading and companion cards.

消費者獲取－客戶獲取，對不起，是指升級和同伴卡。

And these are very attractive investments, so we try to find the right balance between investing and deepening the relationship with our current customers and prospect acquisition.

這些都是非常有吸引力的投資，因此我們試圖在投資和深化與現有客戶的關係以及潛在客戶獲取之間找到適當的平衡。

So I don't have the split between the two, but we typically try to fund first that customer acquisition, which is the most attractive in terms of return.

所以我不知道這兩者之間的差距，但我們通常首先嘗試為客戶獲取提供資金，因為從回報來看這是最具吸引力的。

And we look at the opportunities that exist in the market.

我們關注市場上存在的機會。

And we maintain our very strict standards in terms of underwriting and returns and try to maximize that.

我們在承保和回報方面保持非常嚴格的標準，並努力將其最大化。

So, we have, as you know, a sophisticated process to optimize those marketing dollars.

所以，如您所知，我們有一個複雜的流程來優化這些行銷資金。

But at a very high level, I think that's the story.

但從很高的層面來看，我認為這就是故事。

Moshe Orenbuch, TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbuch，TD Cowen。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Most of my questions have already been asked and answered, but maybe, could you drill down a little more on the SME business?

我的大部分問題都已經被問過並得到解答了，但也許您能更深入地談談中小企業業務嗎？

You saw a little bit of acceleration in the fourth quarter.

你看到第四季出現了一些加速。

Any thoughts either about the trends and momentum there more specifically or plans?

對那裡的趨勢和發展勢頭有什麼具體的想法或計劃嗎？

I know, Steve, you said you didn't really want to talk about plans for refresh, but are there things that we should be looking for in 2025?

我知道，史蒂夫，你說過你不太想談論更新計劃，但是 2025 年我們應該關注哪些事情？

Well, I think Moshe,– the -- what I would say about SME, which is, we still continue to acquire the same amount of SME customers that we've been acquiring, and our attrition is the same.

嗯，我認為 Moshe，我想說的是，關於中小企業，我們仍然繼續獲得與我們一直以來獲得的相同數量的中小企業客戶，我們的流失率也是一樣的。

It really continues to be an organic story.

這確實繼續是一個有機的故事。

And organic spending has still not come back to the levels that we saw sort of pre-COVID.

有機支出仍未恢復到疫情前的水準。

And so if you look at what's happened from an SME perspective during COVID, organic spending went all the way down.

因此，如果您從中小企業的角度來看 COVID 期間發生的情況，您會發現有機支出一路下降。

Coming out of COVID, it really started to ratchet up, and then it sort of normalized a little bit.

從 COVID 疫情爆發以來，情況開始真正惡化，然後才稍微正常化。

And then you had inflation, higher interest rates, and so forth.

然後就出現了通貨膨脹、利率上升等等。

So, I think we started to see the decel of -- the deceleration of organic spending stop and start to turn around.

因此，我認為我們開始看到有機支出減速的現象停止並開始改善。

What I think the story will be with SME is that we can get that back to a 3% organic lift.

我認為中小企業的情況是，我們可以將其恢復至 3% 的有機成長。

You will see that -- you will see SME then be more of a contributor to overall Billings than it is right now.

您將看到—您會看到中小企業對整體帳單的貢獻將比現在更大。

So, it truly is an organic story.

所以，這確實是一個有機的故事。

And I just have -- as you pointed out, I'm not going to talk about refreshes, but I think it really comes down to small business confidence.

正如你所指出的，我不會談論更新，但我認為這實際上取決於小型企業信心。

And it's not an acquisition story.

這不是一個收購故事。

It's not an attrition story.

這不是一個消耗戰的故事。

It truly is still an organic story for us.

對我們來說這確實仍然是一個自然的故事。

And I think the industry is still seeing that as well.

我認為業界也仍然看到這種情況。

Brian Foran, Truist.

布萊恩·福蘭，Truist。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning.

早安.

I hate to use my question on FX, but is the 8% to 10% a FX-adjusted guide or GAAP?

我不想在外匯方面提出問題，但 8% 到 10% 是外匯調整後的指導價還是 GAAP？

And because I think you mentioned you assume the dollar stays here.

因為我認為您提到您假設美元會保持在這裡。

And then can you remind us the EPS impact?

那您能提醒我們 EPS 的影響嗎？

I know there's some expense and hedging.

我知道這其中存在一些費用和對沖。

So, is there any appreciable EPS drag that we should think about embedded in the $15.00 to $15.50 range?

那麼，在 15.00 美元到 15.50 美元的範圍內，我們是否應該考慮明顯的每股盈餘拖累？

Yeah.

是的。

So, thank you for your question, Brian.

所以，謝謝你的提問，布萊恩。

The first thing that I'm going to say on this is that we talk about FX-adjusted and FX-reported because we think it is useful to you and to us to think about the momentum that we see, say, from a revenue, from a Billings standpoint -- a stable currency, like once we control for currency movements, because that reflects the true momentum in terms of transaction and, you know, no FX noise.

我首先要說的是，我們討論外匯調整後和外匯報告，因為我們認為這對你和我們都很有用，讓我們思考我們看到的勢頭，比如從收入來看，從比林斯的角度來看，這是一種穩定的貨幣，就像我們控制貨幣變動一樣，因為它反映了交易的真實勢頭，而且沒有外匯噪音。

So, for that reason, we speak about it in FX-adjusted terms.

因此，我們用外匯調整後的術語來談論這個問題。

As we think about forecast and predictions, it's impossible for us to predict where we’re going to be from an FX standpoint.

當我們考慮預測和預報時，我們不可能從外匯的角度預測我們將會處於什麼位置。

So, we cannot talk about it in terms of FX reported at year-end because we don't know which way the dollar is going to go.

因此，我們無法根據年末報告的外匯情況來談論這個問題，因為我們不知道美元將如何走勢。

And therefore, we're not trying to.

因此，我們不會去嘗試。

The way to think about the impact of these currency movements, you saw it in Q4, right.

您在第四季就已經看到了這些貨幣變動帶來的影響，對吧。

Here, we have actual movements.

這裡，我們有實際的動作。

The difference from a revenue growth standpoint was 1 percentage point.

從收入成長角度來看，差異為 1 個百分點。

FX-adjusted revenue growth was 10%.

經外匯調整後的營收成長了 10%。

FX-reported, GAAP reported was 9%.

以外匯報告計算，以美國通用會計準則計算，該比率為 9%。

So, the impact is material; it's 1 percentage point of revenue growth.

所以，影響是重大的；這是1個百分點的收入成長。

In terms of EPS impact, it's a far more complicated story because we have expenses spread out across the world.

就每股盈餘的影響而言，情況要複雜得多，因為我們的開支分佈在世界各地。

We have centers of excellence.

我們擁有卓越中心。

So, it's really a complicated one.

所以，這確實是一個複雜的問題。

I'm going to refer you -- I think it's in the K or in the Q where we have sensitivity.

我要向您推薦——我認為我們在 K 或 Q 中具有敏感性。

And it goes something like this.

事情是這樣的。

You can check the numbers precisely, but the 10% increase in the dollar, or 1% increase -- the 10% increase in the dollar translating to $136 million negative impact on PTI.

你可以精確地檢查這些數字，但美元增加 10%，或增加 1%——美元增加 10% 意味著對 PTI 造成 1.36 億美元的負面影響。

And so, that's the kind of sensitivity.

所以，這就是一種敏感性。

So, it's not hugely impactful, but it is a little bit impactful still.

因此，它的影響不是很大，但仍然有一點影響。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

匯豐銀行的索爾·馬丁內斯（Saul Martinez）。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Let me double click a little bit on the International businesses that you talked about.

讓我稍微回顧一下您談到的國際業務。

I think you've said each of your top five markets you grew mid-to-high teens -- the mid-to-high teens range.

我想您已經說過，在您前五大市場中，您的銷售額都實現了中高水平的增長 - 中高水平的增長範圍。

Can you just comment on what some of the drivers are, what kind of momentum you're seeing in terms of merchant acceptance, how the sales changes you made a couple of years ago are impacting it?

您能否評論一下其中的一些驅動因素，您在商家接受度方面看到了什麼樣的勢頭，以及您幾年前所做的銷售變化對其有何影響？

And I guess I'm just trying to get at how you feel about the trajectory and the sustainability of that kind of growth.

我想我只是想了解您對這種增長的軌跡和可持續性有何看法。

Well, we feel really good about the trajectory and the sustainability.

嗯，我們對發展軌跡和永續性感到非常滿意。

Merchant acceptance in International continues to grow.

國際商家接受度持續成長。

I mean, we acquired millions of merchants, and the comment that I made is we're at 80% LIF coverage in the key markets.

我的意思是，我們獲得了數百萬商家，而我的評論是我們在主要市場的 LIF 覆蓋率達到 80％。

And from a T&E perspective, we're over 80%.

從差旅費用角度來看，我們的比例超過了 80%。

You saw that go up by 8 points over the last three years.

您會看到，過去三年來，這一數字上升了 8 個百分點。

So merchant acceptance internationally continues to grow very, very rapidly for us.

因此，對我們來說，國際商家接受度持續非常迅速地成長。

As far as overall growth, we invest quite a bit in card acquisition in International, and our opportunities in International card acquisition are still really, really good.

就整體成長而言，我們在國際卡收購方面投入了相當多，我們在國際卡收購方面的機會仍然非常非常好。

And a lot of that growth comes from new cards for us.

我們的大部分成長都來自於新卡。

So, we think with less than 6% market share in the top five markets, and in an SME environment, which is really nascent at this point, we think there are still big opportunities in SME and in Consumer for us.

因此，我們認為，儘管我們在前五大市場的份額不到 6%，並且處於中小企業環境（目前還處於起步階段），但我們認為中小企業和消費者市場仍然有很大的發展機會。

And so, our expectation is that double-digit Billings will continue into the foreseeable future.

因此，我們預計兩位數的出票率將在可預見的未來持續下去。

And remember, pre-COVID, that's what we saw.

請記住，在疫情之前，我們看到的就是這樣的。

International was the fastest growing part of our business because we added merchant locations, and we added more cards.

國際業務是我們業務中成長最快的部分，因為我們增加了商家位置，並增加了更多卡片。

During COVID, it was, internationally, if you recall, almost more than a two-year stoppage.

如果你還記得的話，在新冠疫情期間，國際上停頓了近兩年多。

But it's right back to where it was pre-COVID, and we continue to feel that that's going to continue.

但現在一切又回到了疫情之前的狀態，而且我們仍然覺得這種情況會持續下去。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬特里 (Terry Ma)。

Hey, thank you.

嘿，謝謝你。

Good morning.

早安.

I just wanted to ask about net card fee growth.

我只是想問一下淨卡費用成長的情況。

I think you got it to mid-to-high teens growth in '25 with some moderation.

我認為在 25 年，經過一定程度的緩和，成長率達到了十五六成左右。

So, maybe just unpack that a bit.

因此，也許只需稍微解開一下即可。

You've historically had more of a runway to accelerate that kind of growth when you've done major refreshes.

從歷史上看，當你進行重大更新時，你會擁有更多的跑道來加速這種增長。

So, I'm just curious why that would actually moderate this year.

所以，我只是好奇為什麼今年的情況實際上會緩和。

I mean, the first thing is that these growth rates have been very strong for a very long period of time.

我的意思是，首先，這些成長率在很長一段時間內一直非常強勁。

As a matter of fact, this quarter marks the 26th consecutive quarter where we've seen card fee growth in double digit.

事實上，本季已是卡費連續第 26 季實現兩位數成長。

And it's like, when I say double digit, I think the CAGR is like [16%] (corrected by company after the call) over this period of time.

當我說兩位數時，我認為這段時間內的複合年增長率是 [16%]（電話會議後公司進行了更正）。

Right, it's something of that magnitude, so very strong growth.

是的，它確實是這麼大的規模，而且成長非常強勁。

At the beginning of the year, we started the year at like 16% and we said we should expect to exit the year with an acceleration, which is exactly what happened, right.

今年年初，我們的成長速度達到了 16%，我們當時就預計今年年底會以加速成長，事實也確實如此。

We were at 18% last quarter, 19% last -- 18% in Q3, 19% in Q4.

上個季度的比率是 18%，去年同期是 19%，第三季是 18%，第四季是 19%。

So very strong growth, which -- it's always a complicated -- there's always a lot of moving factors here.

成長非常強勁，但這始終是一個複雜的問題，其中總是有很多影響因素。

So, it's not easy to simplify too much, but the big driver of that acceleration was actually the cycle of product refreshes, and we can see it in our models.

因此，簡化太多並不容易，但這種加速的最大驅動力實際上是產品更新的週期，我們可以在我們的模型中看到它。

And therefore, as you think about 2025, that acceleration that we saw in Q3, Q4 is still going to play out in Q1 2025.

因此，當您想到 2025 年時，我們在第三季和第四季看到的加速仍將在 2025 年第一季發揮作用。

And afterwards, it should trend a little bit more like what you saw at the beginning of 2024, which is this mid-teens growth rate.

之後，它的趨勢應該會更像你在 2024 年初看到的趨勢，也就是十幾歲的成長率。

So, still continuing in a very strong trajectory of card fee growth.

因此，信用卡費用仍保持著強勁的成長軌跡。

And I just want to remind as well that on this 13 million cards that we acquired this year, 70% are joining the Franchise on a fee-paying product.

我還想提醒一下，我們今年獲得的 1300 萬張卡中，有 70% 是透過付費產品加入特許經營的。

So, that supports that growth together with the very strong renewal rates that we see as well.

所以，這支持了這種成長，我們也看到了非常強勁的更新率。

So, it's just -- it's been a very successful story for us, not only recently, but over the last five years.

所以，這對我們來說是一個非常成功的故事，不僅是最近，而且是過去五年來。

And that success is going to keep on in 2025.

這種成功也將持續到 2025 年。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

美國銀行的米希爾·巴蒂亞 (Mihir Bhatia)。

Good morning, and thank you for taking my question.

早上好，感謝您回答我的問題。

Maybe I just wanted to take a little bit of a step back in a big picture question for you, just about competition from fintechs and how that has been evolving.

也許我只是想退一步向您問一個大問題，即來自金融科技的競爭以及這種競爭是如何演變的。

You talked a little bit about it on the Commercial side earlier in response to Craig's question, but maybe just talk about it on the Consumer side as well.

您之前在回答 Craig 的問題時從商業方面談了一些這個問題，但也許也從消費者方面談一下這個問題。

Specifically, I was wondering, we've been seeing some pretty rich cashback offers from some of the newer entrants in the market, if you will.

具體來說，我想知道，我們已經看到一些新進入市場的企業提供了相當豐厚的現金回饋優惠，如果你願意的話。

Is that starting to have any impact in drawing customers away from the traditional rewards card?

這是否開始對吸引顧客放棄傳統獎勵卡產生影響？

And just what are you seeing on competition there from the fintechs in the Consumer side?

您認為消費者領域金融科技領域的競爭如何？

Thank you.

謝謝。

No, I would say I'd go back to the answer I gave before.

不，我會說我會回到我之前的答案。

I think Rick Shane asked the question before about how we invest.

我認為 Rick Shane 之前問過我們如何投資的問題。

I think our Card Member is a little bit different and they're really not really focused on cashback.

我認為我們的持卡會員有點不同，他們實際上並不關注現金回饋。

We have cashback products for those that like it, but our Card Members are more focused on a balance between rewards, experience, and service.

對於喜歡的人，我們提供現金回饋產品，但我們的持卡會員更注重獎勵、體驗和服務之間的平衡。

And so from a fintech perspective on the Consumer side, we really have not seen anything.

因此，從消費者金融科技的角度來看，我們確實沒有看到任何東西。

Not that we don't look at it, not that we're not aware of it, but again, it's about knowing your customer.

這並不是說我們沒有關注它，也不是說我們沒有意識到它，而是這關乎了解你的客戶。

And our customer is one that really does value that experience, access, and service, as well as having rewards with it.

我們的客戶確實看重這種體驗、管道、服務以及由此獲得的回報。

So, and that's not something that the fintechs have been able to really replicate.

所以，這並不是金融科技能真正複製的東西。

Again, it is more of a cashback product.

再說一遍，它更像是一種現金回饋產品。

On the SME side, it's technology integrated with card, and we're very aware of that.

在中小企業方面，這是與卡片整合的技術，我們非常清楚這一點。

And as I said, we'll take the appropriate steps to address that.

正如我所說，我們將採取適當措施來解決這個問題。

So, on a Consumer side, though, no, we have not seen any inroads at all.

因此，從消費者角度來看，我們還沒有看到任何進展。

And if you look at it, our card acquisition -- we don't unpack it, but our card acquisition from a Consumer perspective was at record levels as well.

如果你看一下，我們的卡片收購 - 我們不會打開它，但從消費者的角度來看，我們的卡片收購也達到了創紀錄的水平。

So, we had high, high Consumer cards that we've acquired.

所以，我們獲得了非常高的消費者卡。

So, nothing to see there at this point, but again, we'll continue to watch it.

所以，現在還沒有什麼好看的，但我們會繼續關注。

Steve, thank you.

史蒂夫，謝謝你。

With that, we will bring the call to an end.

至此，我們的通話就結束。

Thank you again for joining today's call and for your continued interest in American Express.

再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議並感謝您對美國運通的持續關注。

The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions.

IR 團隊將隨時解答任何後續問題。

Operator, back to you.

接線員，回到你身邊。

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast replay will be available on our investor relations website at ir.americanexpress.com shortly after the call.

女士們、先生們，電話會議結束後不久，網路直播重播將在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上提供。

You can also access a digital replay of the call at (877) 660-6853 or (201) 612-7415, access code 13750743, after 1:00 PM Eastern Standard Time on January 24 through January 31.

您也可以在 1 月 24 日至 1 月 31 日美國東部標準時間下午 1:00 之後撥打 (877) 660-6853 或 (201) 612-7415，訪問代碼 13750743，收聽此次電話會議的數位重播。

That will conclude our conference call for today.

今天的電話會議就到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。