美國運通 (AXP) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們先生們，謝謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the American Express Q3 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加美國運通 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Kartik Ramachandran.

現在我想將會議交給我們的東道主、投資者關係主管卡蒂克·拉馬錢德蘭 (Kartik Ramachandran) 先生。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Donna, and thank you all for joining today's call.

謝謝唐娜，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

As a reminder, before we begin, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance.

提醒一下，在我們開始之前，今天的討論包含有關公司未來業務和財務表現的前瞻性陳述。

These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些是基於管理層目前的預期，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC.

可能導致實際結果與這些陳述有重大差異的因素包含在今天的簡報投影片和我們向 SEC 提交的報告中。

The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的討論也包括非公認會計準則財務指標。

The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials, as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discuss.

可比較的公認會計準則財務指標包含在本季度的收益材料以及我們討論的前期收益材料中。

All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com.

所有這些都發佈在我們的網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上。

We'll begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results.

今天我們將由董事長兼執行長 Steve Squeri 開始，他將首先介紹公司的進展和成果。

And then Christophe Le Caillec, Chief Financial Officer, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance.

然後財務長 Christophe Le Caillec 將對我們的財務表現進行更詳細的審查。

After that, we'll move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Christophe.

之後，我們將與 Steve 和 Christophe 就結果進行問答環節。

With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

那麼，讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

Good morning and thanks for joining us for our third quarter earnings call.

早安，感謝您參加我們的第三季財報電話會議。

We had another strong quarter that reflects the steady earnings power of our business model and our continued investments for growth.

我們又經歷了一個強勁的季度，這反映了我們業務模式的穩定獲利能力以及我們持續的成長投資。

Earnings per share in the third quarter was $3.49, and revenues were $16.6 billion, up 8% over last year, marking our 10th consecutive quarter of record revenues.

第三季每股收益為 3.49 美元，營收為 166 億美元，比去年成長 8%，連續 10 個季度營收創紀錄。

Based on our performance to date and the strong earnings we’re generating, we are raising our full-year EPS guidance to between $13.75 and $14.05, up from $13.30 to $13.80, and we continue to expect full year revenue growth that is within the guidance range we provided at the beginning of the year, at around 9%.

根據我們迄今為止的業績和我們所產生的強勁盈利，我們將全年每股收益指引從 13.30 美元上調至 13.75 美元至 14.05 美元，並且我們繼續預計全年收入增長在預期範圍內。的指導範圍為9% 左右。

I feel good about our performance to date and the ongoing strength of our business, and I remain confident in our long-term growth prospects.

我對我們迄今為止的業績以及我們業務的持續實力感到滿意，並且我對我們的長期成長前景仍然充滿信心。

A key reason for my confidence is the sustainability of our product refresh strategy and the growth it is generating across our portfolio.

我充滿信心的關鍵原因是我們產品更新策略的可持續性以及它在我們的產品組合中帶來的成長。

We have already achieved our plan of refreshing 40 products globally this year, and we expect to do several more by year-end.

我們今年已經實現了在全球更新 40 種產品的計劃，預計到年底還會推出更多產品。

As we do so, we're adding value to our offerings by embedding new benefits and services that reflect the financial and lifestyle needs of our existing premium Card Members and attract new ones.

在此過程中，我們透過嵌入新的福利和服務來增加我們的產品價值，這些福利和服務反映了我們現有高級卡會員的財務和生活方式需求並吸引了新會員。

A great example of this is the US Consumer Gold Card. We talk a lot about the Platinum Card – and with good reason - but the Gold Card is also a critically important product in our portfolio.

美國消費者金卡就是一個很好的例子。我們經常談論白金卡，而且理由充分，但金卡也是我們產品組合中極為重要的產品。

Gold is a very popular product with total US Consumer Gold acquisitions currently running at about 30% higher than Platinum, and it's our number one premium product for Millennial and Gen-Z consumers, with 80% of US Gold Cards we acquire coming from this cohort.

黃金是一種非常受歡迎的產品，目前美國消費者黃金購買總量比白金高出約30%，它是我們針對千禧世代和Z 世代消費者的第一大優質產品，我們購買的美國金卡片中有80% 來自這群。

In designing the refreshed Gold Card, which we launched in the third quarter, we know that Millennials and Gen-Zs are especially interested in dining.

在設計我們於第三季推出的更新版金卡時，我們知道千禧世代和 Z 世代對餐飲特別感興趣。

In fact, these younger Card Members transact almost 2x more on dining and make up a higher percentage of users on our Resy restaurant booking platform than other generations in our Card Member base.

事實上，這些年輕的持卡會員的餐飲交易量幾乎是我們其他幾代持卡會員的兩倍，並且在我們的 Resy 餐廳預訂平台上所佔的用戶比例更高。

With that in mind, we enhanced the already rich dining benefits that come with Gold Card membership.

考慮到這一點，我們增強了金卡會員本來就豐富的餐飲優惠。

And as we've done with other refreshes, the value of the additional benefits is greater than the annual fee increase.

正如我們對其他更新所做的那樣，額外福利的價值大於年費的增加。

While it's very early days, we're seeing strong new account acquisitions and continued high retention levels among existing US Gold Card Members, indicating that our customers see real value and the enhancements we've made.

雖然現在還處於早期階段，但我們看到現有美國金卡會員的新帳戶獲取量強勁，且保留率持續較高，這表明我們的客戶看到了真正的價值和我們所做的改進。

This is a pattern we see when we refresh our products.

這是我們在更新產品時看到的模式。

We add value that resonates with premium customers, and we price for that enhanced value, which results in strong acquisition and retention numbers that drive spending and consistently strong growth in subscription-like fee revenues.

我們增加與優質客戶產生共鳴的價值，並為這種增加的價值定價，從而帶來強勁的收購和保留數量，從而推動支出和訂閱類費用收入的持續強勁增長。

The Gold Card is just one example of how dining is playing an increasingly integral role in our Membership Model.

金卡只是餐飲在我們的會員模式中發揮越來越重要作用的一個例子。

Dining is an important category across our premium customer base.

餐飲是我們優質客戶群中的重要類別。

In fact, spending on restaurants continues to be one of our fastest-growing T&E categories in our US Consumer business, increasing 7% in Q3 versus last year and growing at nearly twice the industry rate overall since 2019.

事實上，餐廳支出仍然是我們美國消費者業務中成長最快的差旅娛樂類別之一，第三季比去年成長了 7%，成長速度是自 2019 年以來產業整體成長率的近兩倍。

And with total restaurant and food service spend estimated at $1 trillion in the US, dining represents a significant opportunity for us to further differentiate Amex Membership.

美國的餐廳和食品服務總支出估計為 1 兆美元，餐飲為我們提供了進一步區分 Amex 會員的重要機​​會。

This is why we're investing and building out our dining capabilities.

這就是我們投資和建立餐飲能力的原因。

First, with the acquisition of Resy in 2019 and more recently, with the additions of Tock and Rooam, both of which have closed since we announced them in Q2.

首先，隨著 2019 年收購 Resy，最近又增加了 Tock 和 Rooam，自從我們在第二季宣布以來，這兩家公司都已關閉。

We've made significant progress to date.

迄今為止，我們已經取得了重大進展。

We've successfully scaled Resy since acquiring the company with over 50 million registered users.

自從收購了擁有超過 5,000 萬名註冊用戶的公司以來，我們已經成功擴大了 Resy 的規模。

And in the last 12 months alone, the platform has seated over 350 million diners.

僅在過去 12 個月內，該平台就接待了超過 3.5 億食客。

We're also embedding Resy benefits in several of our value propositions, including the US Gold Card I just mentioned as well as our US Consumer Platinum Card and the refreshed premium Delta SkyMiles co-brand cards we announced in February.

我們也將Resy 的優惠融入我們的多項價值主張中，包括我剛才提到的美國金卡、美國消費者白金卡以及我們在2 月份推出的全新優質達美「飛凡哩程常客計畫」聯名卡。

In addition to the many benefits for Card Members, Resy strengthens our Membership Model in other important ways.

除了為持卡會員帶來許多好處外，Resy 還透過其他重要方式強化了我們的會員模式。

It connects our restaurant merchants with high spending premium customers while also providing them with a state-of-the-art technology platform that helps them grow their businesses.

它將我們的餐廳商家與高消費的優質客戶聯繫起來，同時也為他們提供最先進的技術平台，幫助他們發展業務。

Furthermore, Resy's large user base gives us access to a pool of potential prospects who enjoy dining but do not yet have an American Express Card. Our newest acquisitions will expand on the benefits we offer consumers and merchants, driving value for both.

此外，Resy 龐大的用戶群使我們能夠接觸到一群喜歡用餐但尚未擁有美國運通卡的潛在客戶。我們最新的收購將擴大我們為消費者和商家提供的好處，為雙方帶來價值。

Tock extends our dining footprint with millions of additional users and thousands more bookable venues including wineries, hotels and certain events in addition to restaurants.

Tock 擴大了我們的餐飲足跡，增加了數百萬用戶和數千個可預訂場所，包括酒莊、酒店和餐廳以外的某些活動。

With Rooam, hospitality merchants can have access to sophisticated integration capabilities across various restaurant management platforms and the ability to enhance live events and stadium experiences.

借助 Rooam，酒店商家可以獲得跨各種餐廳管理平台的複雜整合功能，並能夠增強現場活動和體育場體驗。

While the competition is fierce in the dining space, we believe our business model advantages, including our premium customer base, the strong merchant relationship we have with restaurants and other hospitality providers, and our Membership Model - position us well to continue our growth in this important category.

雖然餐飲領域的競爭非常激烈，但我們相信我們的商業模式優勢，包括我們的優質客戶群、我們與餐廳和其他酒店供應商建立的牢固的商業關係以及我們的會員模式，使我們能夠在這一領域持續成長。

As we demonstrated, the investments we continue to make in our value propositions - as reflected in our product refresh strategy - and in our capabilities - as seen in the example of dining - are fueling our momentum.

正如我們所展示的，我們繼續對我們的價值主張（如我們的產品更新策略所反映的）和我們的能力（如餐飲示例中所體現的）進行的投資正在推動我們的發展勢頭。

And these are just a couple of the examples of why I remain confident that our long-term growth aspirations are the right ones.

這些只是我仍然相信我們的長期成長願望是正確的幾個例子。

Thank you, and I'll now turn it over to Christophe for a more detailed look at our performance in the quarter.

謝謝，我現在將其交給 Christophe，以便更詳細地了解我們本季的業績。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早安。

Before going into the details of our third quarter results, I'd like to take a few minutes to step back and highlight the key takeaways from our year-to-date performance.

在詳細介紹第三季業績之前，我想花幾分鐘時間回顧我們今年迄今為止的業績的主要收穫。

First, our business model is performing really well.

首先，我們的商業模式表現非常好。

We had another solid quarter of earnings generation with EPS of $3.49, even as we continue to invest significantly in marketing and technology.

儘管我們繼續在行銷和技術方面進行大量投資，但我們又一個季度實現了穩健的盈利，每股收益為 3.49 美元。

The spend environment has been stable over the course of the year, and revenue growth is in line with our expectations with a year-to-date FX adjusted growth of 10%.

全年支出環境維持穩定，營收成長符合我們的預期，年初至今經匯率調整後的成長為 10%。

We continue to add many more customers to the Franchise, transaction engagement is deepening, and we benefit from our diverse set of customer types, revenue streams and geographies.

我們繼續為特許經營增加更多客戶，交易參與不斷加深，我們受益於我們多樣化的客戶類型、收入流和地理位置。

In addition, as Steve discussed, our focus on continuously refreshing products is resulting in an acceleration in our card fees revenue, which grew by 18% this quarter.

此外，正如 Steve 所討論的，我們對不斷更新產品的關注導致我們的卡費收入加速成長，本季成長了 18%。

And our focus on premium products continues to be the foundation of our very strong credit performance.

我們對優質產品的關注仍然是我們強勁信用表現的基礎。

We continue to manage our expense base with discipline.

我們繼續嚴格管理我們的支出基礎。

Year-to-date, excluding the gain from Accertify, operating expenses have grown very modestly as we fully leverage the scale and the digitization of our operations.

今年迄今為止，除去 Accertify 的收益，隨著我們充分利用營運規模和數位化，營運費用成長非常溫和。

This business model is yielding very strong earnings, which is enabling us to increase investments to grow the Franchise and also to return excess capital to our shareholders.

這種商業模式產生了非常強勁的收益，這使我們能夠增加投資來發展特許經營權，並將多餘的資本回饋給我們的股東。

Compared to last year, we reduced the number of shares outstanding by $24 million.

與去年相比，我們已發行的股票數量減少了 2,400 萬美元。

Turning now to our Q3 spend performance on Slide 3.

現在轉向幻燈片 3 上的第三季支出表現。

Billed Business grew 6% on an FX-adjusted basis, continuing the trend of stable volume growth that we've been seeing over the past several quarters.

經匯率調整後，計費業務成長了 6%，延續了過去幾季我們看到的銷量穩定成長的趨勢。

And while T&E growth rates are now more in line with what we're seeing on Goods and Services spending, the picture hasn't changed very much since last quarter.

雖然差旅費成長率現在與我們所看到的商品和服務支出更加一致，但自上季以來，情況並沒有太大變化。

Our customers continue to deepen their engagement with their American Express cards, as the number of transactions was up 9% in Q3.

我們的客戶繼續加深與美國運通卡的互動，第三季交易數量增加了 9%。

This is a function of growth in the number of customers and merchants as well as growth in the number of transactions per customer.

這是客戶和商家數量增長以及每個客戶交易數量增長的函數。

For instance, transactions per customer are up around 30% from five years ago.

例如，每位客戶的交易量比五年前增加了約 30%。

As you look at the spend trends by segment over the next few slides, I want to highlight a few key points to take away.

當您在接下來的幾張投影片中以細分市場查看支出趨勢時，我想強調幾個要點。

Spend across our affluent US Consumer base continued to be very stable with strong growth from Millennial and Gen-Z customers, up 12%.

我們富裕的美國消費者群體的支出持續非常穩定，千禧世代和 Z 世代客戶的支出強勁成長，成長了 12%。

Notably, we continue to see very strong loyalty with this younger cohort, with new customer retention higher than that of older generations.

值得注意的是，我們繼續看到這群年輕族群的忠誠度非常高，新客戶的保留率高於老一輩。

Within Commercial Services, spend growth was up modestly and consistent with what we've seen over the past few quarters.

在商業服務領域，支出成長小幅成長，與我們過去幾季看到的情況一致。

Our fastest-growing segment again this quarter is International Card Services, with spend growth of 13%.

本季我們成長最快的細分市場再次是國際卡服務，支出成長了 13%。

The breadth of this continued performance is especially worth noting: every one of our top five markets is growing in double digits, with four out of the five in mid to high teens.

這種持續表現的廣度尤其值得注意：我們排名前五的市場中的每一個都以兩位數的速度成長，其中五個市場中有四個處於中高點。

For example, Japan is up 17% and Mexico 15% on an FX-adjusted basis.

例如，經匯率調整後，日本上漲了 17%，墨西哥上漲了 15%。

We also see strong engagement from Millennial and Gen-Z customers in International, with the age cohort growing 23% FX adjusted in Q3.

我們也看到國際市場千禧世代和 Z 世代客戶的強烈參與，該年齡層的客戶在第三季的外匯調整後增加了 23%。

Let me now turn to Lending and Credit performance on Slides 7 through 9.

現在讓我談談幻燈片 7 至 9 上的貸款和信貸績效。

Total Loans and Card Member Receivables growth was strong at 10% year-over-year and continued to moderate as expected.

貸款總額和卡片會員應收帳款成長強勁，年增 10%，並如預期繼續放緩。

Loan growth was 15% this quarter, consistent with Q2.

本季貸款成長 15%，與第二季一致。

Our enhanced lending capabilities such as Pay Over Time continue to be the largest contributor to our loan growth.

我們增強的貸款能力（例如分期付款）仍然是我們貸款成長的最大貢獻者。

In addition, over 70% of revolving loan growth continues to be driven by tenured customers.

此外，超過 70% 的循環貸款成長繼續由長期客戶推動。

Looking ahead, we continue to see a long runway for growth as we expand our share of lend with our premium Card Members.

展望未來，隨著我們擴大優質卡會員的貸款份額，我們將繼續看到漫長的成長道路。

While revolve rates have largely built back since the pandemic, we expect to see continued upward momentum over time as we meet more of our customers' borrowing needs on our premium products and grow our Charge and Co-brand portfolios.

儘管自大流行以來循環利率已基本回升，但隨著我們滿足更多客戶對優質產品的借貸需求以及擴大我們的收費和聯合品牌產品組合，我們預計隨著時間的推移，循環利率將繼續呈上升勢頭。

Our focus on growing lending through our premium customer base also continues to pay off in the strength of our credit performance.

我們對透過優質客戶群增加貸款的關注也繼續在我們的信用表現中得到回報。

Delinquency rates remain very low and in line with our prior quarters, especially taking into account the seasonal downtick we saw in Q2.

拖欠率仍然非常低，與我們前幾季的情況一致，特別是考慮到我們在第二季看到的季節性下降。

And write-off rates declined to 1.9% this quarter.

本季沖銷率下降至 1.9%。

Looking forward, I still expect modest upward bias to these rates as we continue to acquire new customers at elevated levels and increase our share of lending from existing customers.

展望未來，隨著我們繼續以較高的水平獲得新客戶並增加現有客戶的貸款份額，我仍然預計這些利率會適度上行。

This quarter, we had about $1.4 billion of provision expense.

本季度，我們的撥備費用約為 14 億美元。

This includes a reserve build of $264 million, which was predominantly driven by loan volume growth.

其中包括 2.64 億美元的準備金建設，這主要是由貸款量成長推動的。

The reserve rate was 2.9%, consistent with recent quarters.

準備率為2.9%，與最近幾季一致。

Taking a step back, these best-in-class credit metrics are a reflection of our strategy.

退一步來說，這些一流的信用指標反映了我們的策略。

Our product value propositions create a powerful positive selection effect, which carries through to better credit performance.

我們的產品價值主張創造了強大的正向選擇效應，從而帶來更好的信用表現。

Our risk management strategies and capabilities widen the margin of safety and ensure profitable growth.

我們的風險管理策略和能力擴大了安全邊際並確保獲利成長。

Focusing next on revenues, starting on Slide 10.

接下來專注於收入，從投影片 10 開始。

As I noted earlier, we grew total revenues net of interest by 8%.

正如我之前指出的，我們扣除利息後的總收入增加了 8%。

Discount revenue, our largest revenue line, grew 4% versus last year and is driven by the spend trends I discussed earlier.

折扣收入是我們最大的收入項目，與去年相比增長了 4%，這是由我之前討論的支出趨勢所推動的。

Net card fees increased 18% on an FX-adjusted basis, accelerating 2 points sequentially, driven in part by the product refreshes.

經匯率調整後，網卡費用增加了 18%，季增了 2 個百分點，部分原因是產品更新。

And we continue to see strong demand for our products as we bring new customers into the Franchise, with new cards acquired of $3.3 million in the quarter.

隨著我們為特許經營業務引入新客戶，我們繼續看到對我們產品的強勁需求，本季獲得了 330 萬美元的新卡。

Our strong acquisition and retention levels, along with our ongoing cycle of refreshing products, continue to drive sustainable growth in card fee revenue.

我們強大的獲取和保留水平，以及我們不斷更新的產品週期，繼續推動卡費收入的可持續增長。

This strong growth represents a real proof point of the success of our strategy and the continued engagement of our customers.

這種強勁的成長真正證明了我們策略的成功和客戶的持續參與。

Turning to our lending economics on slide 14, net interest income grew 17% on an FX-adjusted basis and, continues to moderate as we previously communicated.

轉向幻燈片 14 上的貸款經濟學，經匯率調整後，淨利息收入增長了 17%，正如我們之前所傳達的那樣，繼續放緩。

Growth in this line is driven by increases in revolving loan balances and net yield versus the prior year.

該業務的成長是由循環貸款餘額和淨收益率與去年相比的成長所推動的。

I'll turn now to our expense performance on slide 15.

我現在將轉向投影片 15 上的支出績效。

Our VCE to revenue ratio remained stable at 41% this quarter ,with variable customer engagement expenses up 10% versus last year.

本季我們的 VCE 與營收比例穩定在 41%，可變客戶參與費用比去年成長 10%。

Looking at some of the components of VCE, rewards expense this quarter grew 10%, outpacing spend growth.

從 VCE 的一些組成部分來看，本季的獎勵支出增加了 10%，超過了支出成長。

We are continuously evolving the MR value proposition to increase the ease of redemption for our Card Members and also to maintain the economics of the program.

我們不斷發展 MR 價值主張，以提高持卡會員兌換的便利性並保持該計劃的經濟性。

In the short term, those changes drive a very small increase in the ultimate rate of redemption, but over time we are confident in the economics, with minimal impact to the VCE ratio.

短期內，這些變化會導致最終贖回率略有上升，但隨著時間的推移，我們對經濟充滿信心，對 VCE 比率的影響微乎其微。

And we continue to invest in our Card Member benefits to deliver superior experiences for our customers.

我們繼續投資於持卡會員福利，為我們的客戶提供卓越的體驗。

For example, this year, we've added over 300 new hotels to the Hotel Collection program, one of the benefits on the Gold Card. And we see that year-to-date bookings on the program are 6x higher than five years ago.

例如，今年，我們在 Hotel Collection 計劃中新增了 300 多家新酒店，這是金卡的福利之一。我們發現，今年迄今該計劃的預訂量比五年前增加了 6 倍。

Marketing expense was $1.5 billion, in line with our run rate so far this year as we continue to invest at elevated levels versus last year.

行銷費用為 15 億美元，與今年迄今為止的運行率一致，因為我們繼續以高於去年的水平進行投資。

As I mentioned last quarter, we expect our full year marketing spend for 2024 to be around $6 billion as we lean into the attractive growth opportunities available to us.

正如我上季度提到的，隨著我們抓住可用的有吸引力的成長機會，我們預計 2024 年全年行銷支出將達到 60 億美元左右。

Lastly, operating expenses of about $3.8 billion were up 5% versus last year.

最後，營運費用約為 38 億美元，比去年增長 5%。

There is some seasonality to operating expense levels and we expect to see a slight uptick in Q4, consistent with prior year's trend.

營運費用水準存在一定的季節性，我們預計第四季將略有上升，與去年的趨勢一致。

On a full year basis, we continue to expect operating expenses to remain fairly flat year-over-year, adjusting for the Accertify gain.

就全年而言，我們繼續預計營運支出將比去年同期保持相當平穩，並根據 Accertify 收益進行調整。

Taking a step back, total expenses year-to-date are up about 5% relative to 10% growth in FX adjusted revenue.

退一步來說，今年迄今的總支出成長了約 5%，而外匯調整後的收入成長了 10%。

This is a reflection of our ability to invest at elevated levels and drive strong expense leverage.

這反映出我們有能力進行高水準的投資並推動強大的費用槓桿。

Let me now move to Capital on slide 16.

現在讓我轉到投影片 16 上的《資本論》。

Our CET1 ratio was 10.7%, well within our 10% to 11% range, and we returned $2.4 billion in capital to our shareholders.

我們的 CET1 比率為 10.7%，完全在 10% 至 11% 的範圍內，我們向股東返還了 24 億美元的資本。

This is the highest return included -- sorry, this capital return included $1.9 billion of share repurchases, the highest level in the past two years, and $0.5 billion in dividends.

這是包含的最高回報——抱歉，這個資本回報包括19億美元的股票回購，是近兩年來的最高水平，以及5億美元的股息。

Also, we continue to have a very robust and diverse funding stack at our disposal.

此外，我們繼續擁有非常強大且多樣化的資金來源。

Our High-Yield Savings balances grew by 19% year-over-year this quarter.

本季我們的高收益儲蓄餘額年增 19%。

Notably, over 75% of balances come from existing Card Members, though less than 10% of our US Consumer customers have a High-Yield Savings account with us.

值得注意的是，超過 75% 的餘額來自現有持卡會員，但只有不到 10% 的美國消費者客戶在我們這裡擁有高收益儲蓄帳戶。

This brings me to our 2024 guidance.

這讓我想到了我們 2024 年的指導。

For the full year, we expect revenue growth of around 9%, within the revenue guidance range we provided at the beginning of the year.

對於全年，我們預計收入成長在 9% 左右，在我們年初提供的收入指導範圍內。

We are also raising our full year EPS guidance to $13.75 to $14.05, reflecting both the momentum and the earnings power of our business.

我們還將全年 EPS 指導上調至 13.75 美元至 14.05 美元，反映了我們業務的勢頭和盈利能力。

This represents 23% to 25% year-over-year growth.

這意味著同比增長 23% 至 25%。

It is higher than we expected at the start of the year and above our long-term aspiration of mid-teens growth.

它高於我們年初的預期，也高於我們對青少年成長的長期期望。

With that, I will now turn the call back over to Kartik, and we will take your questions.

現在，我將把電話轉回卡蒂克，我們將回答您的問題。

Thank you, Christophe.

謝謝你，克里斯托夫。

Before we open up the lines for Q&A, I will ask those in the queue to please limit yourself to just one question.

在我們開放問答隊列之前，我會請隊列中的人限制自己只回答一個問題。

Thank you for your cooperation.

感謝您的合作。

And with that, the operator will now open up the line for questions.

話務員現在將開放提問線。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

（操作員說明）Sanjay Sakhrani，KBW。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I appreciate the solid results in what clearly is a softer spending backdrop.

我很欣賞在支出明顯疲軟的背景下所取得的堅實成果。

I guess I'm just thinking about the updated guidance, and as we think about that 10% plus revenue expectation in the future, I mean, is that possible in the current spending backdrop?

我想我只是在考慮更新後的指導，當我們考慮未來 10% 以上的收入預期時，我的意思是，在當前的支出背景下這可能嗎？

Next year, as I think about it, NII will be slower, card fees, obviously, should be stronger, but does Billed Business have to accelerate to get to double digits?

明年，我認為，NII 會更慢，卡費顯然應該更高，但計費業務是否必須加速達到兩位數？

Or is there another way?

或者還有別的辦法嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Sanjay.

謝謝，桑傑。

Look, I think that the Bill Business definitely has to accelerate to get to our aspirational goal of 10% revenue growth.

看，我認為帳單業務肯定必須加速實現我們 10% 收入成長的理想目標。

When you think about the three legs of the stool that we have, to grow our revenues, I think we absolutely have the right balance, the balance of spending, NII, and card fees, and card fees continue to grow at accelerated rates.

當你想到我們擁有的三隻凳子時，為了增加我們的收入，我認為我們絕對擁有正確的平衡，支出、NII 和卡費用的平衡，並且卡費用繼續加速增長。

It's 25 straight quarters now of double digit.

現在已經連續 25 季兩位數了。

We had 18% this quarter.

本季我們佔 18%。

NII continues to chug along, but I don't think anybody wants to see us really accelerate too much from there.

NII 繼續穩步前進，但我認為沒有人希望看到我們在此基礎上加速太多。

And I think that as we think about our overall aspiration, that aspiration was set in a more robust environment.

我認為，當我們思考我們的整體願望時，這個願望是在一個更強大的環境中設定的。

And so, for us to hit that 10%, we would need to have an acceleration in Billings, certainly an acceleration from 6%.

因此，為了達到 10%，我們需要比林斯加速，當然是從 6% 開始加速。

Having said that, and I said this about a year ago at the Goldman Sachs Conference, we have driven the scale of this business at this point to such a place that even with a softer, albeit consistently, it's been consistently soft for the last -- pretty much for the last year, if you go back, our Billings overall for pretty much the last year, other than the second quarter when we had the extra day, have been about 6% overall.

話雖如此，我大約一年前在高盛會議上說過，我們目前已經將這項業務的規模擴大到這樣的程度，即使是在持續疲軟的情況下，它在過去一直是持續疲軟的—— - 幾乎是去年的情況，如果你回顧過去，去年我們的比林斯總體水平（除了第二季度我們有額外一天的時間）總體約為6%。

But yet, we are able to deliver on our mid-teens EPS growth.

但是，我們仍然能夠實現每股收益的十幾歲左右的成長。

And I think that's what our focus is really on.

我認為這才是我們真正關注的焦點。

And so, as the economy gets stronger, when that is, I don't know, but I think it's absolutely the right aspiration for us as a company to strive for 10% revenue growth, but we will need an acceleration in Billings.

因此，隨著經濟變得更加強勁，我不知道什麼時候，但我認為作為一家公司，爭取 10% 的收入成長絕對是我們正確的願望，但我們需要比林斯加速。

Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

瑞恩·納什，高盛。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

Steve, thank you for the for the branding of our conference on the prior response.

史蒂夫，感謝您在先前的回覆中為我們的會議做了品牌宣傳。

So, maybe just a follow-up on Sanjay's question.

所以，也許只是桑傑問題的後續。

When you think about the three legs of the stool, if we don't see an acceleration in Billings growth, can you maybe just talk about the drivers of EPS growth into 2025?

當您考慮凳子的三條腿時，如果我們沒有看到比林斯增長加速，您能否談談 2025 年 EPS 增長的驅動因素？

Can you continue to sustain the mid-teens growth, even in the face of a challenging -- of a slower than aspirational revenue growth environment?

即使面臨收入成長速度慢於預期的充滿挑戰的環境，您能否繼續維持十幾歲左右的成長？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I mean, just -- if you look at this year, as I just said, we've had Billings growth of pretty much 6% for almost a year now.

我的意思是，如果你看看今年，正如我剛才所說，我們比林斯的成長率近一年來接近 6%。

And so, I'll just go back to my comments that I just made to Sanjay.

因此，我將回到我剛剛對 Sanjay 發表的評論。

I think at the level of that 6% overall Billings growth, and we continue to acquire cards, and we continue to upgrade Card Members, and we continue to grow NII where we are.

我認為，在比林斯整體成長 6% 的水平上，我們將繼續獲取信用卡，繼續升級持卡會員，並繼續在目前的情況下增加 NII。

Yes, I think EPS growth in the range -- in our mid-teens range is absolutely something that should be expected from us.

是的，我認為每股盈餘的成長絕對是我們應該期待的。

The other thing that I would say is that while we are not -- if you look at this year, we've acquired 3.4 million cards in the first quarter, and 3.3 million cards in the second quarter, and 3.3 million cards in the third quarter.

The other thing that I would say is that while we are not -- if you look at this year, we've acquired 3.4 million cards in the first quarter, and 3.3 million cards in the second quarter, and 3.3 million cards in the third四分之一.

And that's all about really the future for us.

這就是我們的未來。

And as the economy gets stronger, these are cohorts, and most of these people that we're acquiring are Millennials and Gen-Z.

隨著經濟變得更加強勁，這些都是群體，而我們正在收購的大多數人都是千禧世代和 Z 世代。

These are cohorts that will continue to grow with us.

這些群體將繼續與我們一起成長。

That will see an uptick in organic spending over time.

隨著時間的推移，有機支出將會增加。

That will wind up being upgraded from a Green to a Gold, a Gold to a Platinum and so forth.

最終將從綠色升級為金級，從金級升級為白金級，等等。

And so, once again, I think that we are really laying the foundation with the investments that we're making for strong growth going forward.

因此，我再次認為，我們正在為未來的強勁成長進行投資，真正奠定基礎。

Maybe I will just add one point.

也許我只想補充一點。

This year, indeed, is a good reference, right?

今年確實是一個很好的參考，對吧？

And we're going to grow EPS north of the mid-teens, even when you control for the Accertify gain.

即使您控制 Accertify 收益，我們的每股收益也會成長到青少年以上。

And that's after increasing the marketing investments year-over-year by as much as $800 million, right?

那是在行銷投資年增了 8 億美元之後，對嗎？

And so, that speaks about the power of generating mid-teens EPS growth despite a 6% Billings growth.

因此，這說明了儘管比林斯成長了 6%，每股盈餘仍能實現約 10%的成長。

Craig Maurer, FT Partners.

克雷格‧毛雷爾，《金融時報》合夥人。

Yes.

是的。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks.

謝謝。

I wanted to ask about business development spend came in well below what consensus was expecting.

我想詢問業務開發支出遠低於共識預期的情況。

And I was curious what is happening there, whether it was a short-term phenomenon or something more long term?

我很好奇那裡正在發生什麼，這是短期現象還是更長期的現象？

And just second, was there any impact from weather in the guide for the rest of the year?

其次，今年剩餘時間的天氣對指引有影響嗎？

Let me -- I'll answer the second question, and Christophe will answer the first one.

讓我——我來回答第二個問題，克里斯托夫來回答第一個問題。

No, there was no impact at all from weather in the guide at all.

不，指南中根本沒有受到天氣的影響。

And on the business or partner payments line and business development, a lot of those expenses are about the agreement that we have with customers and co-brand partners in terms of sharing the economics of the co-brands.

在業務或合作夥伴支付線和業務開發方面，許多費用都與我們與客戶和聯合品牌合作夥伴就共享聯合品牌經濟方面達成的協議有關。

And specifically, in terms of this quarter, the reason why that number is not growing as much as maybe you were expecting is because -- on the small -- on the Corporate side, we also have agreements in terms of incentives that we pay back to our customers.

具體來說，就本季而言，這個數字之所以沒有像您預期的那樣成長，是因為在企業方面，我們在獎勵方面也達成了協議，我們將予以償還給我們的客戶。

And since the Billing is coming at a lower level, so are those incentives that we pay back to the customers.

由於帳單水準較低，我們向客戶支付的激勵措施也較低。

Rick Shane, JPMorgan.

里克·肖恩，摩根大通。

Thanks for taking my question this morning.

感謝您今天早上提出我的問題。

Look, as we move into the fourth quarter, the setup is that earnings will be way above initial guidance and even above the second quarter increase, and revenues are gravitating towards the low end of your range.

看，當我們進入第四季度時，收益將遠高於最初的指導，甚至高於第二季度的增幅，並且收入正趨向區間的低端。

That suggests credit and operating leverage are better than you expected.

這表示信貸和經營槓桿比您預期的要好。

You've talked about the ramp in marketing, the incremental $800 million.

您談到了行銷方面的成長，增量為 8 億美元。

Historically, when the earnings setup is this strong, you really pull forward investments, planting seeds for long-term revenue growth, I'm curious this year why you're letting so much fall to the bottom line?

從歷史上看，當獲利設定如此強勁時，你確實會提前投資，為長期收入成長播下種子，我很好奇今年為什麼你讓這麼多的資金落入底線？

Are you starting - as you ramp up that $800 million incremental, are you starting to see the marginal return on those investments diminish in a way that it's no longer attractive?

當您增加 8 億美元的增量時，您是否開始看到這些投資的邊際回報減少，不再具有吸引力？

No, I don't think we're seeing the marginal return.

不，我認為我們沒有看到邊際回報。

I think it's a matter of ramping.

我認為這是一個加速的問題。

It's just ramping up to the level that we are.

它只是上升到我們現在的水平。

I mean, when you think about how much we are spending on a relative basis at 1.5 -- almost $1.5, $1.6 billion in marketing, we're stepping up that marketing almost $800 million.

我的意思是，當你考慮我們相對而言在 1.5 的基礎上花費了多少——幾乎 1.5 美元、16 億美元用於行銷時，我們正在加大行銷力度，接近 8 億美元。

We've also stepped up technology spend.

我們也加大了技術支出。

We've invested -- we're investing more in control management as we move from a Category 4 bank to a Category 3 bank.

隨著我們從第 4 類銀行轉向第 3 類銀行，我們已經在控制管理方面進行了更多投資。

And so, we're not walking away from any investments and it's -- but we're also not -- what we're also not doing is we're not lowering our standards in any way, either.

因此，我們不會放棄任何投資，而且我們也不會這樣做，我們也不會以任何方式降低我們的標準。

So no, I think that we've ramped up our investments all year long.

所以不，我認為我們全年都在增加投資。

It is just really hard to then just jam a bunch more investment into next year.

明年要投入更多投資真的很困難。

Having said that, we expect that we will grow our investment levels from here as we move into 2025.

話雖如此，我們預計在進入 2025 年時我們的投資水準將在此基礎上提高。

I would not expect a pullback in marketing because as we start to look at next year, we're looking for more efficiencies, obviously, in our marketing spend.

我預計行銷不會出現下滑，因為當我們開始展望明年時，我們顯然正在尋求提高行銷支出的效率。

But additionally, we're looking to invest more in marketing as we move into next year and more in technology and so forth.

但此外，隨著明年的到來，我們希望在行銷方面投入更多，在技術等方面投入更多。

So, when you think about the business, from a quarter-to-quarter basis, yes, it's easy to have that -- the assumption that you have.

所以，當你考慮每季的業務時，是的，很容易就有這樣的假設——你有這樣的假設。

When you think about the business on a continuum, you have to layer in your investments over time.

當您以連續體的方式思考業務時，您必須隨著時間的推移分層投資。

So, it's not as easy just to pull sort of investments in from the first quarter of next year into the fourth quarter of this year.

因此，僅僅從明年第一季到今年第四季進行投資並不那麼容易。

Years ago we could do that because our investment levels were probably half of where they are today.

幾年前我們可以做到這一點，因為我們的投資水準可能只有現在的一半。

And so, as you get to that, to that level that we are today, it is easier to go on a continuum in the way we're going as opposed to, hey, look, there's an opportunity, let's pull it -- let's just pull it forward.

所以，當你達到這個水平，達到我們今天的水平時，以我們正在採取的方式繼續下去會更容易，而不是，嘿，看，有一個機會，讓我們抓住它——讓我們只需將其向前拉即可。

So, we feel good about the investment opportunities over the next -- over the medium to long range, and we'll continue to invest in the business.

因此，我們對未來中長期的投資機會感到滿意，我們將繼續投資這項業務。

Erika Najarian, UBS.

艾莉卡·納賈里安，瑞銀。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

When I look at the supplement, it does seem like spend on a per member basis has been a little bit flatter than overall spend growth, 2% versus 6%.

當我查看該補充資料時，發現每位會員的支出確實比整體支出成長平一些，分別為 2% 和 6%。

And clearly, that's a result of your success in adding so many new customers.

顯然，這是您成功增加這麼多新客戶的結果。

If we don't get the rebound in spend growth next year -- and obviously, everyone is trying to figure out whether we're going to have the soft landing or not a soft landing.

如果我們明年的支出成長沒有反彈——顯然，每個人都在試圖弄清楚我們是否會實現軟著陸。

How much runway do you feel you have to continue to add new customers to keep the spend growth at the current level?

您認為需要多長的跑道才能繼續增加新客戶才能將支出成長保持在當前水平？

And maybe as a compound question to that, maybe give us some color on where we are on the product refresh cycle?

也許作為一個複合問題，也許可以給我們一些關於我們在產品更新周期中的位置的資訊？

Yes.

是的。

So, let me answer the second part and then go to the first.

那麼，讓我回答第二部分，然後再討論第一部分。

I think on the product refresh cycle, we've already surpassed -- we're at our 40 that we had committed to at the beginning of the year.

我認為在產品更新周期方面，我們已經超過了年初承諾的 40 個週期。

And there will be some more refreshes that will be done over the rest of this year.

今年剩下的時間還會有更多的更新。

And we will continue refreshing on next year.

明年我們將繼續刷新。

I'll let Christophe comment a little bit, but I'll just give you a couple of other points as it relates to your first question.

我會讓克里斯托夫評論一下，但我只會給你一些與你的第一個問題相關的其他觀點。

We still see line of sight as we move into next year to acquire more card holders.

當我們進入明年時，我們仍然希望獲得更多持卡人。

I think when you look at the overall spending, organic spending in our customer base is not as robust as it was in a more robust environment.

我認為，當你觀察整體支出時，我們客戶群的有機支出並不像在更強勁的環境中那麼強勁。

And that's what our card holders do.

這就是我們的持卡人所做的。

What our card holders will do is pull back slightly if they lose any confidence, see any sort of signs of their own stress, but they will continue to pay their bills, and that's why our credit numbers are so good.

我們的持卡人會做的是，如果他們失去信心，看到任何自身壓力的跡象，他們會稍微退縮，但他們會繼續支付賬單，這就是為什麼我們的信用數據如此良好。

I think when you look at the organic piece of this, you see this especially within our Small Business.

我認為，當您審視其中的有機部分時，您會發現這一點尤其是在我們的小型企業中。

Our Small Business has been hit from a macro perspective.

從宏觀角度來看，我們的小型企業受到了打擊。

I think just like a lot of other companies, small business, and at the organic spend or the same-store sales spend that is occurring on the card in small businesses, it is certainly not as robust as it was coming out of the pandemic.

我認為，就像許多其他公司、小型企業一樣，小型企業的有機支出或同店銷售支出肯定不如疫情後那麼強勁。

In fact, it is negative because when you look at our Small Business, our acquisition is good, and our retention is really good.

事實上，這是負面的，因為當你看看我們的小型企業時，我們的收購很好，我們的保留也非常好。

It is that organic spend that's down.

有機支出下降了。

And so that organic spend leads to a slight depression in spend per Card Member.

因此，有機支出會導致每位持卡會員的支出略微下降。

And so, to add to the other part of your question, the metrics you're looking at is an average - is a global average.

因此，為了補充問題的另一部分，您正在查看的指標是平均值 - 是全球平均值。

So that adds up customers in Australia and Japan as well in the US.

這樣就增加了澳洲、日本以及美國的客戶。

So, it's hard to read a lot of insights out of that metric.

因此，很難從該指標中獲得許多見解。

So, to give you a bit more color on how to think about those new Card Members that are joining the Franchise, we do see that they are more engaged than the past vintages, if you want.

因此，為了讓您更了解如何看待那些加入特許經營的新卡會員，如果您願意的話，我們確實看到他們比過去的年份更加投入。

When we look at the number of transactions per new [customer] that number is trending up.

當我們查看每個新[客戶]的交易數量時，該數字呈上升趨勢。

And in my prepared remarks, I cited the metric of 30% more transactions per [customer] (corrected by company after the call) now than five years ago, and we see that, right?

在我準備好的發言中，我引用了現在每個[客戶]的交易量比五年前增加了 30% 的指標（由公司在電話會議後更正），我們看到了這一點，對嗎？

And this is a function of better coverage, not only in the US, but also outside of the US.

這是更好的覆蓋範圍的結果，不僅在美國，而且在美國之外。

And we stick to the premiumness of our acquisition.

我們堅持收購的溢價性。

Not only we grew the number of Card Members, as you pointed out, but we are maintaining the fact that about [70%] (corrected by company after the call) of them are coming up on our fee-paying products.

正如您所指出的，我們不僅增加了持卡會員的數量，而且我們還堅持這樣一個事實，即大約 [70%]（由公司在電話會議後更正）的持卡會員將使用我們的付費產品。

So, they are very engaged.

所以，他們非常投入。

And so, each vintage, if you want, is definitely showing progress. and what's impacting this average are the things that Steve talked about and that the tenured Card Members, and what we call the organic spend, that is a little bit more challenged.

因此，如果你願意的話，每個年份都肯定會顯示出進步。影響這一平均水平的是史蒂夫談到的事情以及終身卡會員，以及我們所說的有機支出，更具挑戰性。

Don Fandetti, Wells Fargo.

唐范德蒂，富國銀行。

Steve, the general consensus, pretty much among everyone, is that the affluent US consumer is in good shape.

史蒂夫，幾乎所有人的普遍共識是，富裕的美國消費者狀況良好。

I just wanted to get your sense if you're seeing anything in your data bookings that would raise concern around the sustainability of that?

我只是想了解一下您是否在資料預訂中看到任何會引起人們對其可持續性的擔憂？

You've got an election coming up and things of that nature?

您即將舉行選舉以及類似的事情嗎？

No.

不。

I mean, look, this company has been around a long time.

我的意思是，看，這家公司已經存在很久了。

I mean, obviously, we didn't have cards 174 years ago.

我的意思是，顯然，174 年前我們還沒有卡片。

But we've been around for lots of different elections, lots of different configurations of the House, the Senate and so forth.

但我們經歷過許多不同的選舉，眾議院、參議院的許多不同配置等等。

Our customer base is very different than our competitors' customer base.

我們的客戶群與競爭對手的客戶群非常不同。

And it's really resilient and pretty stable.

而且它確實具有彈性並且非常穩定。

I think that they're continuing to spend, albeit not levels that we saw coming out of the pandemic.

我認為他們仍在繼續支出，儘管沒有達到我們在大流行中看到的水平。

But the US Consumer, just to pick the US Consumer, has been really stable.

但就美國消費者而言，美國消費者一直非常穩定。

I mean, it's been just about 6% for the last few quarters.

我的意思是，過去幾個季度的成長率僅為 6% 左右。

And if you look at the International Consumer and a lot of people forget, we do have the International side of our business.

如果你看看國際消費者，很多人都會忘記，我們的業務確實有國際層面。

International Consumer business has been growing [about] (added by company after the call) 13% for the last four quarters as well.

過去四個季度，國際消費者業務也成長了約 13%（公司在電話會議後補充）。

So we're not seeing anything that would indicate that spending would go down.

因此，我們沒有看到任何跡象表明支出會下降。

And we're not seeing anything that would indicate our credit metrics are getting any worse.

我們沒有看到任何表明我們的信用指標變得更糟的跡象。

In fact, you saw write-offs go sequentially down.

事實上，您看到沖銷額連續下降。

And so, we feel good about the Consumer.

因此，我們對消費者感覺良好。

We would like to see more organic spend.

我們希望看到更多的有機支出。

And I think to go back to the beginning, when Sanjay opened us up with that question, I think an uptick in that organic spend will help us reach our overall aspiration of 10%.

我想回到一開始，當 Sanjay 向我們提出這個問題時，我認為有機支出的增加將幫助我們實現 10% 的整體願望。

But that's why our aspiration of 10% is in fact, an aspiration, and I think still the right aspiration for this company because we do expect organic to come back.

但這就是為什麼我們 10% 的願望實際上是一個願望，我認為對這家公司來說仍然是正確的願望，因為我們確實期望有機回歸。

Organic will not stay at this level forever.

有機不會永遠停留在這個水平。

When that comes back, I don't know.

當它回來時，我不知道。

But regardless, and as we've proven this year, we're able to still deliver that mid-teens EPS growth.

但無論如何，正如我們今年所證明的那樣，我們仍然能夠實現十幾歲左右的每股收益成長。

Jeffrey Adelson, Morgan Stanley.

傑弗裡·阿德爾森，摩根士丹利。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

I guess just if we look at the approximately 9% revenue growth for the year, as you sit here, only 18 days in the quarter, does that suggest that you're maybe looking for a little bit of revenue growth reacceleration in the fourth quarter here?

我想，如果我們看看今年大約 9% 的收入增長，當你坐在這裡，這個季度只有 18 天時，這是否表明你可能正在尋找第四季度收入增長的重新加速這裡？

Or, how are you thinking about that 9% for the year?

或者，您如何看待今年的 9%？

Could it maybe slip a little bit below that?

它可能會稍微低於這個水平嗎？

And when we look at the discount revenue growth, it did go under the Billed Business growth a little bit this quarter, I think the implied discount rate did drop a little bit.

當我們查看折扣收入成長時，本季它確實略低於計費業務成長，我認為隱含折扣率確實下降了一點。

Is there any noise in there?

裡面有噪音嗎？

Or is there something we should be aware of there?

或者有什麼我們該注意的嗎？

So, I'll take the second part of your question first in terms of how to think about the discount revenue versus the Billed Business.

因此，我將首先回答您問題的第二部分，即如何考慮折扣收入與計費業務。

As Steve just mentioned, International is growing at a faster clip than the US.

正如史蒂夫剛才所提到的，國際市場的成長速度比美國更快。

And as you probably know, the discount rate in International is lower than in the US.

您可能知道，國際航班的折扣率低於美國的折扣率。

So that creates a little bit of a disconnect between the growth you see in discount revenue and on Billed Business globally.

因此，這在您看到的折扣收入成長和全球計費業務成長之間造成了一點脫節。

As far as the first part of your question, in terms of how to think about revenue growth and how to think about Q4.

至於你問題的第一部分，關於如何考慮收入成長以及如何考慮第四季。

The best way to -- the key word that we've been using this morning is stability.

最好的方法——我們今天早上一直使用的關鍵字是穩定性。

We see stability in terms of Billings, in terms of the trends, and no inflection points.

我們看到比林斯的穩定性、趨勢的穩定性，沒有拐點。

So, as you said, we are only like a few weeks into Q4, but my projection for Q4 is to be a continuation of a lot of these trends.

因此，正如您所說，我們距離第四季度只有幾週了，但我對第四季度的預測是許多這些趨勢的延續。

So, Q3 is a good proxy for what to expect about Q4, and that's why we're guiding towards 9% revenue growth.

因此，第三季可以很好地反映第四季度的預期，這就是我們指導收入成長 9% 的原因。

I want to point out, though, that the EPS in terms of the full year performance is also way north of what we guided towards at the beginning of the year, even when you adjust for Accertify.

不過，我想指出的是，即使您根據 Accertify 進行調整，全年業績的每股收益也遠高於我們年初的指導目標。

So, we're generating a lot of earnings even with being at a 9% revenue growth, which still -- when I listen to peers, it compares really well to most of our peers.

因此，即使收入增加了 9%，我們仍然創造了大量收益，當我聽取同行的意見時，我們發現它與我們大多數同行相比確實很好。

Cris Kennedy, William Blair.

克里斯甘迺迪，威廉布萊爾。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您提出問題。

Steve, you mentioned how customers generally move from Green Cards to Gold Cards to Platinum Cards.

史蒂夫，您提到客戶通常如何從綠卡轉為金卡，然後再轉為白金卡。

Is there any way to think about the lifetime value or average spend by category?

有什麼方法可以按類別來考慮生命週期價值或平均支出嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I think when you -- when you start to move up the food chain, you move up because you're going to -- for example, you're moving from -- if you're a Millennial, for example, and you're on a Gold Card, you're probably not traveling as much, but you're dining out a lot and you may be just starting with the Franchise.

我認為，當你——當你開始向食物鏈上游移動時，你就會向上移動，因為你將——例如，你正在從——如果你是千禧一代，例如，你”如果你持有金卡，您可能不會經常旅行，但您會經常外出用餐，而且您可能剛開始使用特許經營卡。

As you start to move along, you might have a little bit more discretionary income.

當你開始前進時，你可能會有更多的可自由支配收入。

You're traveling more, you're taking advantage of lounges, you're taking advantage of fine hotels and resorts and hotels.

您旅行的次數越來越多，您正在利用休息室，您正在利用優質的飯店、度假村和飯店。

And so, you will see higher spending on Platinum Cards than you will on Gold Cards and on Green Cards, because if you're going to pay a higher fee for a product, you're going to engage in that product more, you're going to use that product for what the benefits of those -- of that product, in fact, is.

因此，您會發現白金卡上的支出高於金卡和綠卡上的支出，因為如果您要為某種產品支付更高的費用，您就會更多地參與該產品，您'事實上，我們將使用該產品來獲得該產品的好處。

And when you think about it, the Platinum Card, while it's morphing into much more of a lifestyle card overall, it still has heavy travel benefits to it.

想想看，白金卡雖然整體上更像是一種生活方式卡，但它仍然具有很大的旅行福利。

And to really take full advantage of that, you want to be traveling, and airline tickets cost money and hotels cost money and so forth.

要真正充分利用這一點，你想要旅行，而機票要花錢，飯店要花錢等等。

So, I think as people do move along the continuum, you do have a higher lifetime value depending upon when you enter the Franchise, right?

所以，我認為當人們確實沿著連續體移動時，你確實擁有更高的終身價值，這取決於你何時進入特許經營，對嗎？

So, if you enter the Franchise at a Gold Card level and then ultimately upgrade to a Platinum, yes, you will have a higher lifetime value overall to us.

因此，如果您以金卡等級進入特許經營，然後最終升級到白金卡，是的，您將擁有更高的整體終身價值。

If you enter as a Gen-X or a Boomer into the Platinum Franchise, which we still acquire Gen-X's and Boomers, obviously, you'll probably have a lower lifetime value than you would as a Millennial who entered in as a Gold Card Member.

如果您以 X 世代或嬰兒潮世代的身份進入白金特許經營權（我們仍然獲得 X 世代和嬰兒潮世代），顯然，您的終身價值可能會低於以金卡身分進入的千禧世代成員。

So, it all depends on the entry point.

因此，這一切都取決於切入點。

But in general, as they move up, we get more value out of them.

但總的來說，隨著他們的晉升，我們可以從他們身上獲得更多價值。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

索爾·馬丁內斯，匯豐銀行。

Hey, good morning.

嘿，早安。

I wanted to ask about how to think about net interest income dynamics as we head into 2025 and just what the building blocks are?

我想問一下，當我們進入 2025 年時，如何看待淨利息收入動態以及其組成要素是什麼？

Steve, I think you mentioned that you don't want to accelerate too much from here.

史蒂夫，我想你有提到你不想從這裡加速太多。

But if you could just -- Christophe, if you could just give us some of the building blocks in terms of how to think about NII in this rate environment?

但是，如果您可以—Christophe，您是否可以為我們提供一些關於如何在這種利率環境下考慮NII 的基礎知識？

Your liability-sensitive, deposit dynamics, revolve rates, balances and stuff like that?

您對負債敏感、存款動態、循環利率、餘額等等？

If you could just kind of help us think through how to think about the evolution as we head out into 2025?

您能否幫助我們思考在邁入 2025 年時如何看待演變？

Yes.

是的。

So, the first thing maybe is to remind ourselves that we are slightly liability sensitive, but only very slightly.

因此，第一件事可能是提醒自己，我們對責任有輕微的敏感性，但只是非常輕微。

And the impact of Fed funds rate cuts on our NII is actually quite small.

而聯邦基金利率下調對我們NII的影響其實很小。

And we regularly update this sensitivity in our 10-Q, and you'll see later this afternoon, we updated those numbers as well.

我們定期在 10-Q 中更新這種敏感性，今天下午晚些時候您會看到，我們也更新了這些數字。

They're really small.

它們真的很小。

And so, maybe we can put this one out of the equation.

所以，也許我們可以把這個排除在外。

The rest is a volume rate balance.

剩下的就是體積率平衡。

So, from a volume standpoint, we have said that you should expect the volumes, the AR, especially the revolving balances, to moderate in terms of growth.

因此，從交易量的角度來看，我們說過，你應該預期交易量、AR，尤其是循環餘額的成長會放緩。

And the dynamic, I mean, we're all familiar with that.

我的意思是，我們都熟悉這種動態。

During the pandemic people pay back their balances and have been rebuilding slowly their balances.

在大流行期間，人們償還餘額並一直在緩慢重建餘額。

And the revolve rates that we see now are starting to stabilize and moderate.

我們現在看到的周轉率開始穩定並放緩。

So I think we are -- I would say this normalization is -- for the most part, is behind us.

所以我認為我們——我想說這種正常化——在很大程度上已經過去了。

And so, you expect now the [change in] (added by company after the call) growth rate to very much moderate.

因此，您現在預計[變化]（由公司在電話會議後添加）增長率將非常溫和。

And from a yield standpoint, there are two things here, right?

從產量的角度來看，這裡有兩件事，對吧？

The first one is we are -- we keep shifting the funding of those balances towards High-Yield Savings accounts, which is the lowest funding cost for us.

第一個是我們不斷將這些餘額的資金轉移到高收益儲蓄帳戶，這對我們來說是最低的融資成本。

And so, this creates a positive impact or positive effect on the yield.

因此，這對產量產生了積極的影響或積極的影響。

And on the interest income, we keep working in terms of making sure we have the right price points, we constantly compare our price as well against our peers, and we make sure that we are well positioned there.

在利息收入方面，我們繼續努力確保我們擁有合適的價格點，我們不斷將我們的價格與同行進行比較，並確保我們處於有利地位。

And so, we should expect the yield to benefit from this dynamic.

因此，我們應該預期收益率將從這種動態中受益。

But the way to think about it is moderation in terms of -- in terms of volume [deceleration] (added by company after the call).

但思考這個問題的方法是在數量[減速]方面進行適度調整（由公司在電話會議後面添加）。

We're going to maintain the strong yield that you see now and very, very limited impact from any change in the rate environment from a Fed rate standpoint.

我們將維持您現在看到的強勁收益率，並且從聯準會利率的角度來看，利率環境的任何變化所產生的影響非常非常有限。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

馬特里，巴克萊銀行。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

So, your card acquisitions continue to run at a pretty healthy level and your net card fee growth this quarter has already exceeded the exit rate of last year.

因此，您的卡收購繼續以相當健康的水平運行，並且本季度您的網卡費用增長已經超過了去年的退出率。

I guess, are you running ahead of your expectations for some of these product refreshes in terms of adoption or engagement in general?

我想，您對其中一些產品的更新在採用率或參與度方面是否超出了您的預期？

No, I think it's what we really expected from an adoption and engagement perspective.

不，我認為從採用和參與的角度來看，這是我們真正期望的。

As I said, there'll be a few more product refreshes.

正如我所說，還會有更多的產品更新。

This is where we pretty much expected the overall growth rate to be.

這是我們幾乎預期的整體成長率。

Obviously higher than when we entered the year because that's what happens, right?

顯然比我們進入今年時要高，因為這就是發生的情況，對吧？

People get attracted to the products.

人們被產品所吸引。

I think one of the things that -- and we've said this before, but I think it's worth repeating, when you refresh the product, what it does, it creates more demand in the marketplace, and it helps your marketing dollars work even harder for you.

我認為其中一件事——我們之前已經說過了，但我認為值得重複一遍，當你更新產品時，它的作用是，它會在市場上創造更多的需求，甚至可以幫助你的行銷資金發揮作用對你來說更難。

And so, when you look at how that category of revenue grows early on, those categories are from new card holders.

因此，當您查看該類別收入的早期成長時，會發現這些類別來自新持卡人。

Remember, we amortize that over a 12-month period and not everybody gets repriced all at once.

請記住，我們會在 12 個月內攤銷，並不是每個人都會立即重新定價。

So, it does build in for us a ramping up effect of that overall category.

因此，它確實為我們帶來了整個類別的提升效應。

So, not only is it important to upgrade these products because it enables you to attract new card holders but, enables you to continue to engage with your existing card holders.

因此，升級這些產品不僅很重要，因為它可以讓您吸引新的持卡人，而且可以讓您繼續與現有的持卡人互動。

But it does add to that, obviously, that overall subscription like and SaaS-like revenues that card fee subscriptions are.

但顯然，它確實增加了卡費訂閱的整體訂閱和 SaaS 收入。

And we're over $2 billion in this particular quarter.

我們在這個特定季度的營收超過 20 億美元。

So, we continue to focus on that because what we know is our fee-paying Card Members are our most engaged cardholders that we have because they -- we want them to use the benefits and services.

因此，我們繼續關注這一點，因為我們知道我們的付費卡會員是我們最活躍的持卡人，因為我們希望他們使用我們的福利和服務。

Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

馬克‧德弗里斯，德意志銀行。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

I have a related question to the impact of Fed easing on your business.

我有一個關於聯準會寬鬆政策對您業務的影響的相關問題。

Have you looked at kind of what the impact is from Fed easing and the effort to stimulate the economy on your Billed Business growth?

您是否研究過聯準會的寬鬆政策和刺激經濟的努力對您的計費業務成長有何影響？

So, this is a good point.

所以，這是一個好點。

So, at this point in time, the reduction is too small.

所以，在這個時間點上，減少的幅度太小了。

It's too early to see any impact in terms of the spend patterns.

現在判斷對支出模式產生任何影響還為時過早。

And we looked into it, but there's like nothing visible, as you would expect, probably too small.

我們調查了它，但正如你所料，沒有任何可見的東西，可能太小了。

But the expectation is that the consumer and small business confidence is going to improve as a result of the rate environment being more supportive.

但預計由於利率環境更具支持性，消費者和小型企業的信心將會改善。

Because -- as we said this morning, right, we see no evidence of stress in terms of credit.

因為——正如我們今天早上所說的，我們沒有看到信貸方面存在壓力的證據。

We see demand in terms of our premium products.

我們看到了對我們優質產品的需求。

We see very strong renewal rates even when Card Members are moving to a higher price point.

即使持卡會員轉向更高的價格點，我們也看到非常強勁的續訂率。

So, there's definitely capacity to spend -- to spend more.

所以，肯定有能力花錢——花更多的錢。

And my expectation is that the accumulation of cuts will provide some support for the consumer and small business confidence and that will provide some support to Billings.

我的預期是，削減的累積將為消費者和小型企業的信心提供一些支持，這將為比林斯提供一些支持。

And to go back to the first question we addressed this morning, especially to that organic growth, that would benefit from that.

回到我們今天早上提出的第一個問題，特別是有機成長，這將從中受益。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

米希爾·巴蒂亞，美國銀行。

Hi, good morning and thank you for taking my question.

你好，早安，謝謝你回答我的問題。

I wanted to turn to T&E spend for a second.

我想談談差旅費支出。

And just a two-part question on that.

這只是一個由兩個部分組成的問題。

The first is just on airline spend.

第一個是航空支出。

I think it accelerated this quarter.

我認為這個季度加速了。

Can you just talk about the drivers there?

能簡單談談那裡的司機嗎？

Was it Corporate, Consumer, both, what you saw there?

您在那裡看到的是企業、消費者還是兩者？

And then just on restaurant spending.

然後只是餐廳支出。

I think it deceled a little bit this quarter, but just going back to the opening remarks, you referenced just the investments you're making in that category between Resy and Tock and just adding those benefits to various cards.

我認為本季度有所放緩，但回到開場白，您僅提到了 Resy 和 Tock 之間在該類別中進行的投資，並將這些好處添加到各種卡片中。

Do you expect restaurant spending as a category to become a bigger part of your business and grow?

您是否預計餐廳支出作為一個類別將成為您業務的更大組成部分並實現成長？

Like should we expect acceleration in that spending from here?

就像我們應該期望從這裡開始支出會加速嗎？

Yes, so, let me talk about restaurant spending.

是的，那麼，我來談談餐廳消費。

So, when you look at -- before we made our foray into sort of the restaurant reservation business here with Resy, restaurant spending was not our biggest T&E category.

所以，當你看到——在我們與 Resy 一起涉足餐廳預訂業務之前，餐廳支出並不是我們最大的 T&E 類別。

Our biggest T&E category, and still our fastest-growing T&E category right now, is restaurants.

我們最大的差旅和娛樂類別是餐廳，目前仍然是我們成長最快的差旅和娛樂類別。

And our expectations are that we will continue to gain share in that restaurant space.

我們的期望是我們將繼續獲得該餐廳領域的份額。

If you look at it, we've -- just over the last five years, [US Consumer has] (added by company after the call) grown twice what the industry growth rate has been from a restaurant perspective.

如果你看一下，我們——就在過去五年裡，[美國消費者]（由公司在電話會議後添加）的增長是從餐廳角度來看行業增長率的兩倍。

Yes, there was a little bit of a decel this quarter, but I guess, 8% to 7%, but I'm not really all that concerned about that.

是的，本季有一點減速，但我猜是 8% 到 7%，但我並不是真的那麼擔心。

And I think with our Tock acquisition and so forth, I think we will continue to punch above our weight from a restaurant perspective.

我認為，透過對 Tock 的收購等，我認為我們將繼續從餐廳的角度超越我們的實力。

I'll just give you a high level on airline.

我只會給你一個關於航空公司的高水準。

I don't think there's really a lot of change whether it's from a Corporate perspective or a Consumer perspective from airline, I mean, you went from 5% to 6%.

我認為無論是從企業角度還是從航空公司消費者角度來看，都沒有太大變化，我的意思是，從 5% 上升到 6%。

I mean that's not, in some cases, it can just be a little rounding up or a little rounding down quarter-to-quarter.

我的意思是，在某些情況下，這可能只是逐季度向上捨入或向下舍入一點點。

But airline is still strong.

但航空公司依然強勁。

And as we said, we saw international bookings -- I mean I didn't say this, but we saw international bookings in the third quarter from our travel business actually be at the highest levels since before the pandemic.

正如我們所說，我們看到了國際預訂量 - 我的意思是我沒有這麼說，但我們看到我們的旅行業務第三季度的國際預訂量實際上達到了大流行之前以來的最高水平。

So our Card Members are still looking to travel.

因此，我們的持卡會員仍在尋求旅行。

They're looking at -- when you're traveling internationally, you tend to spend a little bit more than when you're traveling domestically.

他們正在考慮——當您進行國際旅行時，您往往會比國內旅行時花費更多。

So, I don't think there's much to read into the airline piece of it or the restaurant piece, other than restaurant is still a very, very strong category for us.

因此，我認為航空公司或餐廳方面沒有太多值得解讀的地方，除了餐廳對我們來說仍然是一個非常非常強大的類別。

But the 1 point up and 1 point down, I wouldn't make too much about for this particular quarter.

但對於這個特定季度的 1 分上升和 1 分下降，我不會做太多討論。

But I think that from a restaurant perspective, we obviously are doubling down on restaurant, not only from the perspective of what we've done with the Tock and Roaam acquisitions, but just look at the Gold Card refresh, which is a heavy dining product and it's targeted at a cohort, Millennial and Gen-Zs, that spend more in dining than any other cohort that we have.

但我認為，從餐廳的角度來看，我們顯然正在加倍投資餐廳，不僅從我們收購Tock和Roaam的角度來看，而且看看金卡刷新，這是一個重磅餐飲產品它針對的是千禧一代和Z 世代這一群體，他們在餐飲上的花費比我們其他任何群體都多。

So, we're pretty bullish on the restaurant industry.

所以，我們非常看好餐飲業。

With that, we'll bring the call to an end.

這樣，我們就結束通話。

Thank you again for joining today's call and for your continued interest in American Express.

再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議並感謝您對美國運通的持續關注。

The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions.

IR 團隊將隨時解答任何後續問題。

Operator, back to you.

接線員，回到您身邊。

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast replay will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.americanexpress.com shortly after the call.

女士們、先生們，電話會議後不久，我們的投資者關係網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上將提供網路廣播重播。

You can also access a digital replay of the call at (877) 660-6853 or (201) 612-7415, access code 13749052 after 1:00 PM ET on October 18 through October 25.

您也可以在美國東部時間 10 月 18 日至 10 月 25 日下午 1:00 後撥打 (877) 660-6853 或 (201) 612-7415（造訪代碼 13749052）查看此通話的數位重播。

That will conclude our conference call for today.

我們今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。