美國運通 (AXP) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。

Welcome to the American Express Q2 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加美國運通 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

（操作員指示）提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Kartik Ramachandran.

現在，我想將會議交給我們的主持人、投資者關係主管卡蒂克·拉馬錢德蘭先生。

Thank you, please go ahead.

謝謝，請繼續。

Thank you, Donna, and thank you all for joining today's call.

謝謝你，唐娜，也謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

As a reminder, before we begin, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance.

提醒一下，在我們開始之前，今天的討論包含有關公司未來業務和財務表現的前瞻性陳述。

These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

這些是基於管理層目前的預期，並受風險和不確定性的影響。

Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC.

今天的簡報幻燈片和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中都包含了可能導致實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異的因素。

The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures.

今天的討論也包含非 GAAP 財務指標。

The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discuss.

本季的收益資料以及我們討論的前期收益資料中包含了可比較的 GAAP 財務指標。

All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com. We will begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results.

所有這些都發佈在我們的網站ir.americanexpress.com上。今天的演講首先由董事長兼首席執行官史蒂夫·斯奎裡 (Steve Squeri) 主持，他將首先介紹公司的進展和業績。

And then Christophe Le Caillec, Chief Financial Officer, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance.

然後，財務長 Christophe Le Caillec 將對我們的財務表現進行更詳細的回顧。

After that, we'll move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Christophe.

之後，我們將與史蒂夫和克里斯托夫就結果進行問答。

With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

說完這些，讓我把話題交給史蒂夫。

Good morning, and thanks for joining us.

早安，感謝您加入我們。

As you saw in our earnings release issued a short time ago, we reported strong second quarter results and raised our EPS guidance for the full year, based on the continued momentum we're seeing in our core business.

正如您在我們不久前發布的收益報告中看到的，我們報告了強勁的第二季度業績，並提高了全年每股收益預期，這是基於我們核心業務的持續發展勢頭。

Revenue in the quarter reached an all-time high and earnings grew 44% year over year or 21% after excluding the gain of $0.66 we realized from the sale of Accertify.

本季營收創歷史新高，營收年增 44%，扣除出售 Accertify 所獲的 0.66 美元收益後，成長 21%。

The strong performance of our core business year to date, and our expectations for the balance of the year, will enable us to increase our investments in marketing and other strategic areas that drive our growth without using any of the proceeds from the Accertify sale, while still delivering exceptional earnings results.

今年迄今為止我們核心業務的強勁表現以及我們對今年剩餘時間的預期將使我們能夠增加對營銷和其他推動我們增長的戰略領域的投資，而無需使用 Accertify 出售所得的任何收益，同時仍能實現出色的盈利結果。

In fact, we now expect to invest around $6 billion in marketing this year, up about $800 million versus last year, all of it funded from the results of our core business.

事實上，我們預計今年在行銷上投資約 60 億美元，比去年增加約 8 億美元，所有資金都來自我們核心業務的成果。

As a result, we are raising our EPS guidance range for the full year to $13.30 to $13.80, up from $12.65 to $13.15 previously, and we continue to expect revenue growth in line with our 9% to 11% range for the year.

因此，我們將全年每股收益預期範圍從之前的 12.65 美元至 13.15 美元上調至 13.30 美元至 13.80 美元，並且我們繼續預計全年收入增長率與 9% 至 11% 的範圍一致。

As we've seen through the first half of the year, our core business continues to generate strong momentum even against a backdrop of a slower growth environment.

正如我們在上半年所看到的，即使在成長環境放緩的背景下，我們的核心業務仍繼續保持強勁勢頭。

The continued momentum we're generating reflects the earnings power of our business model, which is driven by several interrelated factors, including: first and foremost, the quality of our loyal premium customer base; plus the increasing scale of our business; a well-controlled expense base; the success of the strategic investments we're making to enhance Amex membership; and our talented colleagues around the world.

我們持續的成長動能反映了我們商業模式的獲利能力，它由幾個相互關聯的因素驅動，其中包括：首先，我們的忠誠的高端客戶群的品質；加上我們業務規模的不斷擴大；控制良好的費用基礎；我們為提升美國運通會員數量而進行的策略性投資取得了成功；以及我們在世界各地的優秀同事。

Our continued strong performance starts with our premium customers, who are high spending, long tenured, and have excellent credit profiles.

我們持續強勁的表現始於我們的優質客戶，他們消費能力高、使用年限長、信用狀況良好。

And we continue to attract large numbers of high-quality premium customers with our superior products, as seen in the consistently strong new account acquisitions and 24 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth in card fee revenue we've delivered.

我們繼續以優質的產品吸引大量優質的高端客戶，這從我們持續強勁的新帳戶獲取和連續24個季度的兩位數增長的卡費收入中可以看出。

Next is scale.

接下來是規模。

Over the past few years, the scale of our business has grown significantly.

過去幾年裡，我們的業務規模大幅成長。

Compared to year-end 2021, revenues have grown by nearly 50%, Card Member spending has increased by almost 40%.

與 2021 年底相比，營收成長了近 50%，持卡會員支出成長了近 40%。

Cards In Force globally have risen by around 23 million or about 20%, and the number of merchant locations on our network has grown by over 30 million or nearly 50%.

全球有效卡數量增加了約 2,300 萬張，增幅約 20%，我們網路上的商家數量增加了 3,000 多萬張，增幅接近 50%。

This increased scale drives growth and gives us significant flexibility in running our business for the long term.

規模的擴大推動了成長，並為我們的長期業務運營提供了極大的靈活性。

At the same time, our operating expenses are growing well below revenues as we drive efficiencies across the business.

同時，隨著我們提高整個業務的效率，我們的營運費用成長遠低於收入成長。

The combination of our increasing scale and our well-controlled expense base produces significant operating leverage that generates more investment dollars we can inject into our business.

我們不斷成長的規模和良好控制的費用基礎相結合，產生了顯著的經營槓桿，從而為我們的業務注入了更多的投資資金。

Another key factor driving our momentum is the success of the strategic investments we've been making in critical areas like marketing, value propositions, technology, control management capabilities, and talent to sustain our growth.

推動我們發展的另一個關鍵因素是我們在行銷、價值主張、技術、控制管理能力和人才等關鍵領域進行策略性投資的成功，以維持我們的成長。

And to keep the momentum going, we're continuing to invest in enhancing our unique Membership Model through ongoing product innovations and new capabilities and benefits.

為了保持這一勢頭，我們將繼續投資，透過持續的產品創新以及新的功能和優勢來增強我們獨特的會員模式。

For example, as we execute our strategy of regularly refreshing our products, we’re focused on embedding additional value in our premium cards to make them highly attractive to customers across generations and geographies.

例如，在執行定期更新產品的策略時，我們專注於在高級卡中嵌入附加價值，以使其對不同世代和不同地區的客戶具有很強的吸引力。

This enables us to add large numbers of new premium Card Members to our customer base, drive greater engagement with existing customers, and price for the value we add.

這使我們能夠在客戶群中添加大量新的高級卡會員，提高與現有客戶的互動，並為我們增加的價值定價。

We are on track to refresh approximately 40 products globally by the end of the year.

我們計劃在今年年底前更新全球約 40 種產品。

As part of that number, we look forward to announcing our refreshed US Consumer Gold Card in the coming weeks, adding to the nearly two dozen refreshed and updated products we've announced through the first half of the year.

作為其中的一部分，我們期待在未來幾週內宣布更新的美國消費者金卡，這將為我們在今年上半年宣布的近二十種更新和升級的產品增添新的內容。

We also continue to add new capabilities and benefits through both internal innovation and bolt-on acquisitions.

我們也透過內部創新和附加收購繼續增加新的能力和優勢。

For example, our Resy dining reservation platform has seen significant growth since its acquisition in 2019 and our planned acquisitions of Tock and Rooam will further expand our dining portfolio, giving our customers access to more great restaurants and increasing the digital offerings we provide to restaurants and merchants in the food and beverage industry.

例如，我們的 Resy 餐飲預訂平台自 2019 年收購以來實現了顯著增長，我們計劃收購 Tock 和 Rooam，這將進一步擴大我們的餐飲組合，讓我們的客戶能夠接觸到更多優質餐廳，並增加我們為餐飲業的餐廳和商家提供的數位產品。

Finally, our talented colleagues across the company are the engine that drives our growth.

最後，公司各處的優秀同事是我們成長的引擎。

Their creativity, determination, and deep commitment to providing the best customer experience every day is what has made American Express what it is today and what will continue to make us successful in the future.

他們的創造力、決心以及每天為客戶帶來最佳體驗的堅定承諾，成就了美國運通今天的成就，並將繼續推動我們在未來取得成功。

The combination of all these factors is what drives our premium business at a scale that can deliver superior earnings on a sustainable basis.

所有這些因素的結合推動了我們的高端業務達到一定規模，並能夠可持續地帶來優異的收益。

The power of our unique business model and the ongoing momentum we're seeing in the business, driven by our loyal customers and dedicated colleagues, gives us confidence in our ability to achieve our expectations for the year and our long-term aspiration for the business.

我們獨特的商業模式的力量和我們在業務中看到的持續發展勢頭，在我們忠實的客戶和敬業的同事的推動下，使我們對實現今年的期望和對業務的長期願望的能力充滿信心。

With that, I'll now turn it over to Christophe.

現在我將發言權交給克里斯托夫。

Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早安。

It's good to be here to talk about our second quarter results, which reflect another quarter of strong performance.

很高興在這裡談論我們的第二季度業績，這反映出我們又一個季度的強勁表現。

Starting with our summary financials on Slide 2.

從投影片 2 上的財務摘要開始。

Second quarter revenues were $16.3 billion and grew 9% year over year on an FX-adjusted basis.

第二季營收為 163 億美元，經外匯調整後年增 9%。

Net income was $3 billion in the quarter, generating earnings per share of $4.15.

本季淨收入為 30 億美元，每股收益為 4.15 美元。

Our second quarter results also reflect the sale of our Accertify business, which closed during the quarter.

我們第二季的業績也反映了我們在本季關閉的 Accertify 業務的出售。

We recognized an after-tax gain on the sale of $479 million, equating to $0.66 of EPS impact.

我們確認了 4.79 億美元的銷售稅後收益，相當於每股收益 0.66 美元。

Excluding this gain, EPS grew 21%, reflecting the power of the business to generate strong earnings growth even in a slower growth environment, as Steve noted.

史蒂夫指出，若不計入此項收益，每股收益則成長了 21%，反映出即使在成長較慢的環境下，該業務仍具有實現強勁獲利成長的能力。

On Slide 3, Billed Business grew 6% versus last year on an FX-adjusted basis, reflecting stable growth and in line with the softer spend environment we've seen in the past few quarters.

在投影片 3 中，經外匯調整後，帳單業務較去年同期成長 6％，反映出穩定的成長，並且與我們在過去幾個季度看到的較疲軟的支出環境一致。

The stability in spend growth was also visible by category, where we saw 6% growth in Goods and Services, 7% growth in Travel and Entertainment spending.

從類別來看，支出成長也呈現穩定性，其中商品和服務支出成長 6%，旅遊和娛樂支出成長 7%。

We did see some slower growth in certain T&E categories versus the prior quarter, such as in airline and lodging.

與上一季相比，我們確實看到某些差旅與娛樂類別的成長有所放緩，例如航空和住宿業。

At the same time, growth in our largest T&E category - restaurants - remained strong, and Goods and Services strengthened a bit versus the prior quarter when excluding the impact of leap year.

同時，我們最大的差旅與娛樂類別——餐廳——的成長依然強勁，而剔除閏年的影響，商品與服務較上一季略有增強。

Stepping back, while spend growth in certain categories was slightly higher or lower versus the prior quarter, overall spend growth was stable and we continued to see strong growth in the number of transactions from our Card Members, which grew 9% this quarter.

回顧一下，雖然某些類別的支出成長與上一季相比略有上升或下降，但整體支出成長保持穩定，我們繼續看到持卡會員交易數量的強勁成長，本季成長了 9%。

There are a few other key points to take away as we then break down our spending trends across our businesses.

當我們分析整個業務的支出趨勢時，還有一些其他關鍵點需要注意。

Starting with our largest segment on Slide 4.

從幻燈片 4 上最大的部分開始。

US Consumer grew billings at 6% this quarter, with balanced growth across both Goods and Services and T&E.

本季美國消費者的帳單成長了 6%，其中商品和服務以及差旅與娛樂業務均實現了均衡成長。

Our premium customer base continues to demonstrate steady growth.

我們的優質客戶群持續呈現穩定成長。

We also saw growth across all generations, Millennial and Gen-Z customers grew their spending 13% and continued to drive our highest Billed Business growth within this segment.

我們也看到各世代都實現了成長，千禧世代和 Z 世代客戶的支出成長了 13%，並繼續推動我們在這一細分市場中最高的帳單業務成長。

These younger Card Members continue to demonstrate strong engagement and we see that they transact over 25% more on average than our older customers.

這些年輕的持卡會員繼續表現出強烈的參與度，我們發現他們的平均交易量比我們的老客戶高出 25% 以上。

And in some categories like dining, they transact almost twice as much.

在餐飲等一些類別中，他們的交易量幾乎是其他類別的兩倍。

Turning to Commercial Services on Slide 5.

前往投影片 5 上的商業服務。

Overall growth came in at 2% this quarter.

本季整體成長率為2%。

Spending growth from our US Small and Medium Enterprise customers increased a bit sequentially versus last quarter but remained modest.

我們的美國中小企業客戶的支出成長與上一季相比略有增加，但仍保持溫和。

Lastly, on Slide 6, we see our highest growth again this quarter in International Card Services, up 13%.

最後，在投影片 6 中，我們再次看到本季國際卡服務的成長最高，成長了 13%。

We continue to see double-digit growth in spending from International Consumers and from International SME and Large Corporate customers.

我們持續看到國際消費者以及國際中小企業和大型企業客戶的支出呈現兩位數成長。

And we are also seeing double digit growth across all regions.

我們也看到所有地區都實現了兩位數的成長。

Stepping back, we continue to see stable spend growth across customer segments, spend categories, and our US and International geographies, and while we are not in a high growth spend environment, particularly in the US, our spending volumes are tracking in line with our expectations and support our revenue expectations for the year.

回顧過去，我們繼續看到各個客戶群、支出類別以及美國和國際地區的支出穩定增長，雖然我們的支出環境並不高，特別是在美國，但我們的支出量符合我們的預期，並支持我們今年的收入預期。

Moving on to Loans and Card Member Receivables on Slide 7, we saw year-over-year growth of 11%, demonstrating strong growth but continuing to moderate as expected.

轉到幻燈片 7 上的貸款和卡會員應收款，我們看到同比增長 11%，顯示出強勁的增長勢頭，但繼續按預期放緩。

As we progress through 2024, we expect loan growth in particular to continue to moderate by a few percentage points but to still grow in double digits as we exit the year.

隨著 2024 年的到來，我們預計貸款成長將繼續放緩幾個百分點，但在年底時仍將保持兩位數的成長。

Turning next to Credit and Provision on Slide 8 to 10.

接下來轉到投影片 8 至 10 上的「信貸和規定」。

Our credit performance remains very strong and is a direct result of our disciplined growth strategy, which has been focused on growing our high credit quality premium customer base, including through the younger customers we attract to the franchise.

我們的信貸表現依然強勁，這直接得益於我們的嚴謹成長策略，該策略專注於擴大我們的高信貸品質優質客戶群，包括透過我們吸引到特許經營店的年輕客戶。

This strategy, coupled with our robust risk management practices, are an important aspect of our business model.

這項策略與我們強大的風險管理實踐相結合，構成了我們商業模式的重要面向。

Going forward, we expect our write-off rates to remain generally stable for the remainder of 2024.

展望未來，我們預計 2024 年剩餘時間內的註銷率將保持基本穩定。

Turning now to the accounting of this credit performance on Slide 9.

現在來看看投影片 9 上的這項信貸表現的會計。

The quarter over quarter reserve build of $101 million is mostly driven by growth in our loan balances, largely offset by lower delinquencies.

季度環比儲備金增加 1.01 億美元，主要得益於貸款餘額的增長，但拖欠率的下降在很大程度上抵消了這一增長。

This reserve build, combined with net write-offs, drove $1.3 billion of provision expense in the second quarter.

這項準備金累積加上淨註銷導致第二季的撥備支出達到 13 億美元。

As you see on Slide 10, we ended the second quarter with $5.6 billion of reserves, representing 2.8% of our loans and Card Member receivables, a slight decrease compared to Q1.

正如您在投影片 10 上看到的，我們在第二季結束時的儲備金為 56 億美元，占我們貸款和卡片會員應收款的 2.8%，與第一季相比略有下降。

It's worth noting that there is a seasonality component to reserves, although we are also encouraged by the strength of the performance we see in the portfolio.

值得注意的是，儲備具有季節性因素，儘管我們也對投資組合的強勁表現感到鼓舞。

Moving next to revenue on Slide 11.

接下來是投影片 11 上的收入。

Total revenues were up 9% year over year, benefiting from the diversification across revenue streams, customer segments, and geographies.

總收入年增 9%，受益於收入來源、客戶群和地理的多樣化。

Looking at the components of our revenue, our largest revenue line, discount revenue, grew 5% year over year on an FX-adjusted basis, as you can see on Slide 12.

從我們收入的組成來看，我們最大的收入來源，折扣收入，經外匯調整後同比增長了 5%，正如您在幻燈片 12 上看到的那樣。

This growth is mostly driven by the spending trends we discussed earlier.

這種成長主要受到我們之前討論過的支出趨勢的推動。

Net card fee revenues were up 16% year over year on an FX-adjusted basis, as you can see on Slide 13.

正如您在投影片 13 中所看到的，經外匯調整後，淨卡費收入年增 16%。

We're now generating over $2 billion in quarterly card fee revenue as the differentiated value and experiences we offer on our products continues to resonate with our Card Members globally.

由於我們產品所提供的差異化價值和體驗繼續引起全球持卡會員的共鳴，我們目前每季的卡費收入超過 20 億美元。

This is an important metric for us, because it also reflects the choice that our -- that our customers make each year to renew their membership.

這對我們來說是一個重要的指標，因為它也反映了我們的客戶每年更新會員資格的選擇。

We're pleased with the growth and expect to exit the year with further momentum.

我們對這一成長感到滿意，並期望今年能夠取得更大的發展勢頭。

In the quarter, we acquired 3.3 million new cards, demonstrating the demand we're seeing for our products and the investments we've made.

本季度，我們獲得了 330 萬張新卡，這表明我們的產品需求旺盛，並且我們進行了投資。

Acquisition of our premium fee-based products continued to account for around 70% of new accounts.

我們的優質收費產品的取得仍然佔新帳戶的 70% 左右。

And importantly, as we have increased the total number of cards acquired, we have maintained disciplined underwriting standards.

重要的是，隨著我們獲得的卡片總數的增加，我們一直保持嚴格的承保標準。

Moving on to Slide 14.

轉到投影片 14。

Net interest income was up 20% year over year.

淨利息收入較去年同期成長20%。

This growth is driven by the increase in our revolving loan balances, which also contributes to the continued net yield expansion versus the prior year.

這一增長主要得益於我們的循環貸款餘額的增加，這也促使淨收益率較上年持續擴大。

As we've shared before, we continue to expect this growth to further moderate as we progress through the year.

正如我們之前所分享的，我們預計隨著時間的推移，這種成長將進一步放緩。

To sum up revenues on Slide 15, the power of our diversified model continues to drive strong revenue momentum even in a slower growth environment as our results in this quarter were fueled by growth in all our major revenue lines across each of our different business segments and across geographies.

總結投影片 15 的收入，即使在成長較慢的環境下，我們多元化模式的力量也持續推動強勁的營收勢頭，因為本季的業績受到各個不同業務部門和地區所有主要營收線成長的推動。

Moving to expenses on Slide 16, starting at the top of the page.

前往投影片 16 上的費用，從頁面頂部開始。

Variable customer engagement expenses came in at 42% of the total revenues for the second quarters.

可變客戶參與費用佔第二季總收入的 42%。

Looking forward, I expect variable customer engagement expenses as a ratio to revenues to be in line with this level for the balance of year.

展望未來，我預期可變客戶參與費用與收入的比率在今年餘下時間將與此水準保持一致。

On the marketing line, we continued to invest at an elevated level at $1.5 billion in the second quarter.

在行銷方面，我們第二季繼續進行高額投資，達到了 15 億美元。

Given the strong performance in the core business, we now anticipate our full year marketing spend to be around $6 billion or 15% higher versus last year as we plan to invest at high levels to sustain our growth momentum.

鑑於核心業務的強勁表現，我們現在預計全年行銷支出將達到約 60 億美元，比去年高出 15％，因為我們計劃進行高水準投資以保持我們的成長勢頭。

To put this in perspective, this is an incremental $800 million above what we spent in 2023.

從這個角度來看，這比我們在 2023 年的支出增加了 8 億美元。

At the same time, we intend to deploy those investments in a disciplined way.

同時，我們打算以有紀律的方式部署這些投資。

As I discussed at Investor Day, our investment optimization engine is engineered to make profitability-based decisions at the margin.

正如我在投資者日所討論的那樣，我們的投資優化引擎旨在做出基於獲利能力的邊際決策。

And there is a high bar for returns on these substantial incremental investments.

而且這些大量增量投資的回報門檻很高。

Moving to the bottom of Slide 16 brings us to operating expenses.

移至第 16 張投影片的底部，我們可以看到營運費用。

Operating expenses were $3 billion in the second quarter, down 13% versus last year due to the $531 million pre-tax gain we recognized from the sale of our Accertify business.

第二季的營運費用為 30 億美元，較去年同期下降 13%，因為我們出售 Accertify 業務獲得了 5.31 億美元的稅前收益。

Excluding the gain, operating expenses were up 3% in the quarter.

除去這項收益，本季的營業費用上漲了 3%。

Well below the pace of revenue growth even as we continue to invest in technology and our control management capabilities.

儘管我們繼續對技術和控制管理能力進行投資，但收入成長速度仍遠低於這一水平。

Excluding the impact of the Accertify gain, we continue to expect operating expenses for the year to be fairly flat to 2023.

除去 Accertify 收益的影響，我們仍然預計今年的營運費用到 2023 年將基本持平。

This quarter's results demonstrate how the scale of the business and strong expense discipline enable us to generate significant efficiencies, and those efficiencies are enabling us to invest at elevated levels while still generating significant leverage to drive strong earnings growth.

本季的業績表明，業務規模和嚴格的費用紀律使我們能夠產生顯著的效率，而這些效率使我們能夠在更高水平上進行投資，同時仍能產生顯著的槓桿作用來推動強勁的盈利增長。

Turning next to capital on slide 17.

接下來轉到第 17 張投影片上的資本。

Our CET1 ratio was 10.8% at the end of the second quarter within our target range of 10% to 11%.

截至第二季末，我們的 CET1 比率為 10.8%，處於我們 10% 至 11% 的目標範圍內。

We also returned $2.3 billion of capital to our shareholders, including $1.8 billion of share repurchase.

我們也向股東返還了 23 億美元的資本，其中包括 18 億美元的股票回購。

This is the highest level in over two years.

這是兩年多來的最高水準。

And the recent CCAR results further demonstrate the strength of our portfolio and the resilience of our business model.

最近的 CCAR 結果進一步證明了我們投資組合的實力和我們商業模式的彈性。

The stress test results show that under a severely adverse scenario, our portfolio remains profitable.

壓力測試結果顯示，在嚴重不利的情況下，我們的投資組合仍然獲利。

In fact, we are the most profitable financial institution as a percentage of asset growth across all the banks subject to CCAR and have the lowest credit card loss rate under stress as well.

事實上，在所有接受 CCAR 監管的銀行中，我們是資產成長百分比最賺錢的金融機構，而且在壓力之下，我們的信用卡損失率也是最低的。

This result in our stress capital buffer remaining at 2.5%, the lowest prescribed level.

這導致我們的壓力資本緩衝仍維持在2.5%的最低規定水準。

We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth.

我們計劃繼續向股東返還我們產生的剩餘資本，同時支持我們的資產負債表成長。

We do not expect any material near-term changes to our capital management approach.

我們預計我們的資本管理方法短期內不會發生任何重大變化。

This brings me to our 2024 guidance on Slide 18.

這讓我想到了第 18 張投影片上的 2024 年指引。

Let me step back and make a few observations about the growth in the business and the way we see the balance of the year unfolding.

讓我回顧一下，對業務的成長以及我們對今年平衡發展的看法做一些觀察。

First, we have a core business that is comfortably generating mid-teens EPS growth, even in a slower growth environment, and before the gain from the Accertify sale.

首先，我們擁有核心業務，即使在成長較慢的環境中，並且在扣除 Accertify 出售收益之前，該業務仍能輕鬆實現中等水平的每股收益成長。

Second, the pace of earnings generation in the core business, combined with the strong demand we are seeing in the market for our products is enabling us to invest around 15% more in marketing compared to last year.

其次，核心業務的獲利速度，加上市場對我們產品的強勁需求，使得我們在行銷方面的投資比去年增加了約 15%。

As a result, we are able to fund significantly more investments from our core business than our expectation at the start of the year - without relying on the one-off gain from Accertify.

因此，我們能夠從核心業務中獲得比年初預期多得多的投資，而無需依賴 Accertify 的一次性收益。

With that, as Steve mentioned, we are raising our guidance for EPS for the year to a range of $13.30 to $13.80, and within that range we now expect to drop all $0.66 of the Accertify gain to the bottom line.

正如史蒂夫所提到的那樣，我們將今年的每股收益預期上調至 13.30 美元至 13.80 美元之間，並且在此範圍內，我們目前預計將 Accertify 收益中的 0.66 美元全部降至底線。

This is a departure from our usual practice of reinvesting a significant portion of one-off gains in growth initiatives.

這不同於我們將大部分一次性收益再投資於成長計畫的慣例。

But we are confident in the ability of our business to support the year-over-year growth of around $800 million in marketing while delivering mid-teens EPS growth.

但我們對我們的業務能力充滿信心，能夠支持約 8 億美元的營銷支出同比增長，同時實現中等水平的每股收益增長。

Finally, we still expect to deliver revenue growth in the year in line with our initial 9% to 11% range.

最後，我們仍然預計今年的營收成長將與我們最初的 9% 至 11% 的範圍一致。

With that, I turn the call back over to Kartik to open up the call for your questions.

說完這些，我將電話轉回給卡蒂克，讓他回答你們的問題。

Thank you, Christophe.

謝謝你，克里斯托夫。

(Event Instructions) Thank you for your cooperation.

(活動須知)感謝您的合作。

And with that, the operator will now open up the line for questions.

這樣，接線員就會開始回答問題。

Operator?

操作員？

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Ryan Nash, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的瑞安·納什（Ryan Nash）。

Good morning, Steve.

早安，史蒂夫。

Good morning, Christophe.

早上好，克里斯托夫。

Good morning.

早安.

Good morning.

早安.

Steve, can you maybe expand on what you're seeing in the US Consumer and SMEs?

史蒂夫，你能否詳細談談你對美國消費者和中小企業的看法？

US Consumer, we saw a little bit of a slowdown from 8% to 6%.

美國消費者成長略有放緩，從 8% 降至 6%。

Are you seeing a broader slowdown in the consumer?

您是否發現消費領域出現了更大範圍的放緩？

Maybe just talk about what you're seeing on a same-store sales basis and then on the SME side, you obviously saw a slight uptick.

也許只是談談您在同店銷售額方面看到的情況，然後在中小企業方面，您顯然看到了略微的上漲。

So maybe if you could just expand on those both.

所以也許你可以對這兩者進行擴展。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So, I think - look, in US Consumer, you saw a little bit of a sequential decline.

所以，我認為 - 看看美國消費者，你會看到一點連續的下降。

But also remember last quarter we had the extra day, so it's not really apples to apples.

但也請記住，上個季度我們有額外的一天，因此這並不是真正的蘋果與蘋果的比較。

But listen, the US Consumer was 6% up for the quarter, continued to be strongly influenced by Millennial and Gen-Z growth.

但是，美國消費者本季成長了 6%，繼續受到千禧世代和 Z 世代成長的強烈影響。

It's now up to 33% of our total billings and they're up 13%.

現在它已占我們總營業額的 33%，而且成長了 13%。

And so, we feel good where the US Consumer is.

因此，我們對美國消費者的現狀感到滿意。

Obviously, organic spending we'd like to see a little bit higher, but it is a slower growth economic environment.

顯然，我們希望看到有機支出略高一些，但經濟環境成長較慢。

But one thing I will point out before touching on SME, when our consumer – a lot of their spending is discretionary.

但在談到中小企業之前，我要指出一點，我們的消費者的許多支出都是可自由支配的。

And for our consumer, if they decide they’re going to pull back, they’ll pull back a little bit on a discretionary, but they’ll continue to pay their bills, which is why our credit numbers continue to be so strong and we continue to widen the gap between us and our competitors.

對於我們的消費者來說，如果他們決定減少開支，他們會在可自由支配的支出上減少一點，但他們會繼續支付賬單，這就是為什麼我們的信用數字繼續如此強勁，我們與競爭對手的差距繼續擴大。

So, we feel that the US Consumer has been pretty consistent, and we think it's going to be pretty consistent throughout the year.

因此，我們認為美國消費者的消費習慣一直非常穩定，我們認為全年都會保持相當穩定。

From a Small Business perspective, while there still is an organic decline year over year, that organic decline is less than it was last quarter and the quarter before that.

從小型企業的角度來看，雖然年比來看仍有有機下降，但有機下降幅度低於上一季和上季。

So, we're seeing slight improvement.

因此，我們看到了輕微的改善。

In both the US Consumer and in Small Business, retention is still strong and acquisition is still strong, and so what I like about where we're sitting is as the economy rebounds, whenever that may be, organic will pick up, driving future growth.

無論是在美國消費者還是小型企業中，客戶保留率和客戶獲取率都依然強勁，因此，我喜歡我們現在所處的境況，因為隨著經濟的反彈，無論何時，有機增長都會回升，推動未來的成長。

And then just the last comment on International.

最後再談一下關於國際的問題。

You didn't ask about it, because, probably, it is so strong.

你沒有問這個，因為，可能是因為它太強大了。

It's up 13% in the quarter and even Small Business and Commercial within International is up 14%.

本季成長了 13%，甚至國際範圍內的小型企業和商業也成長了 14%。

So, we feel good about where we are right now.

因此，我們對目前的狀況感到很滿意。

Don Fandetti, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的唐‧范德蒂 (Don Fandetti)。

Yes.

是的。

Can you talk a little bit, I know you're reiterating your revenue guide for '24 of 9% to 11%.

你能稍微談談嗎，我知道你重申了 2024 年 9% 到 11% 的收入預期。

But just given results, do you think you're, sort of, more leaning towards the mid to lower end?

但僅從結果來看，您是否認為更傾向於中低端？

And then can you talk about where you're investing in marketing in terms of US Consumer, Commercial, and International?

然後，您能談談您在美國消費者、商業和國際市場的行銷投資嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So I think look, year to date we’re at about 10%, both reported and FX, and for the quarter we were at 8% and 9%.

所以我認為，今年迄今為止我們的報告和外匯成長率約為 10%，而本季我們的報告和外匯成長率分別為 8% 和 9%。

So I think we’re going to wind up within that range.

所以我認為我們最終會達到這個範圍。

And I think depending upon how organic either rebounds or stays where it is, will determine where we wind up within that range.

我認為，取決於有機物如何反彈或保持原狀，這將決定我們最終會處於哪個範圍內。

But we’re very comfortable with, sort of, the 9% to 11%.

但我們對 9% 到 11% 的成長率還是比較滿意的。

As far as investment, what we do is, we will look at the myriad of opportunities that we have to acquire more cardholders.

就投資而言，我們的做法是，尋找各種機會來吸引更多的持卡人。

And depending upon, at any given point in time, because our acquisition engine is a very dynamic engine and things change all the time, we will allocate those investments either US Consumer, Small Business, or International.

並且根據任何給定的時間點，由於我們的收購引擎是一個非常動態的引擎並且事情隨時都在變化，我們將這些投資分配到美國消費者、小型企業或國際。

Traditionally, the US Consumer business would get more of that investment followed either by International and Small Business.

傳統上，美國消費業務將獲得更多的投資，其次是國際和小型企業。

But as I sit here today, it's hard to say exactly what percentages will be, but it will be focused on acquiring more cardholders.

但今天我坐在這裡，很難說出具體的百分比是多少，但它將專注於吸引更多的持卡人。

And the key about that is, is that when we acquire cardholders in the second half of the year, it's really not going to drive spending for us this year.

關鍵在於，當我們在下半年獲得持卡人時，這實際上並不會推動我們今年的消費。

It will -- what we're doing here is we're investing for the medium and the longer term, and it will acquire cardholders that will spend for us, for us next year.

我們會的——我們在這裡所做的是進行中期和長期投資，它將吸引明年願意為我們消費的持卡人。

So, I think the takeaway from the point that Christophe made and the point that I made is the business is – we feel the business is strong right now.

因此，我認為克里斯托夫和我提出的觀點可以得出的結論是——我們感覺現在的業務很強勁。

That we're able to, you know, invest more.

你知道，我們能夠投入更多。

And we have line of sight into those opportunities without compromising on credit.

我們抓住了這些機會，但又不損害信譽。

The only thing I will add to that, Don, is that, the revenue growth was exactly as we were expecting it to be.

唐，我唯一要補充的是，收入成長正如我們預期的那樣。

And as we talked about it on the Q1 call.

正如我們在第一季電話會議上所討論的那樣。

We talked about stable billings, which is exactly what we got.

我們談論的是穩定的賬單，而我們也確實得到了穩定的賬單。

We talked about card fee remaining, in terms of growth, where it was in Q1 before picking up a bit of momentum in the balance of year.

我們討論了卡費剩餘的成長情況，第一季的情況是這樣的，然後在今年餘下的時間裡獲得了一些成長勢頭。

We still think that is the right way to think about card fees.

我們仍然認為這是考慮卡費的正確方式。

And we talked about NII growth rate moderating a little bit.

我們討論了 NII 成長率的略微放緩。

So that revenue growth is where we thought it would be.

所以收入成長是符合我們預期的。

Sanjay Sakhrani, KBW.

桑傑薩克拉尼（Sanjay Sakhrani），KBW。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

And Steve, I think I heard you say a Gold Card refresh will probably be announced shortly.

史蒂夫，我想我聽到你說金卡更新可能很快就會宣布。

I guess, just can we contextualize what that means?

我想，我們能否將其意義具體化呢？

I assume it helps card fees next year.

我認為這將有助於提高明年的卡費。

And then just the spend trends intra-quarter.

然後只是季度內的支出趨勢。

Were those pretty stable?

這些是否相當穩定？

Sounds like they were, but just clarifying.

聽起來是這樣的，但只是澄清一下。

Yeah.

是的。

So, not going to get into the details of the card.

因此，我們不打算深入討論該卡的細節。

But, what I would say is, one of the big advantages of the refresh is, is it makes the marketing dollars work a lot harder.

但是，我想說的是，更新的一大優點是，它讓行銷資金發揮更大的作用。

So, what happens is - when you do a product refresh, whether it's Gold, whether it's Delta, whether it's Hilton, or whether it's another Gold or Platinum card that we do internationally.

因此，當您更新產品時，無論是金卡、達美卡、希爾頓卡，還是我們在國際上推出的另一張金卡或白金卡，都會發生這種情況。

What happens is, you're able to provide more value to those cardholders that already have the product, you may be able to upgrade a Green to a Gold, and obviously you're able to acquire even new cardholders with that.

事實上，您能夠為已經擁有該產品的持卡人提供更多價值，您可以將綠卡升級為金卡，顯然，您甚至可以透過此方式吸引新的持卡人。

And what happens is, as you go out and acquire new cardholders, you will have buzz around the fact that we have a new card and it has, obviously, a different value proposition and you'll have the marketing that goes with it.

而當你出去獲得新的持卡人時，你就會聽到關於我們有新卡的消息，而且它顯然有不同的價值主張，你也會有隨之而來的營銷。

So, when you do a refresh and you have your marketing spend, your marketing dollars work a little bit, the overall value proposition is a lot stronger and it works a little bit harder for you.

因此，當您進行刷新並且花費了行銷費用時，您的行銷資金就會發揮一點作用，整體價值主張就會更加強大，而且對您來說也會更加有利。

And when it comes to the intra-quarter Billings, we typically don't talk about those and there's nothing much to say here.

當談到季度內帳單時，我們通常不會談論這些，這裡也沒有什麼可說的。

So, there's nothing noticeable in terms of monthly Billing growth.

因此，從每月帳單成長來看，沒有什麼明顯的變化。

Craig Maurer, FT partners.

克雷格‧莫瑞爾（Craig Maurer），英國《金融時報》合夥人。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您回答這個問題。

I wanted to ask about the marketing spend and it seems like you're putting the pedal down.

我想詢問有關行銷支出的問題，但看起來你們正在放慢腳步。

So typically, when American Express does this, it's because -- or at least in the past, you've seen this happen because Amex is either anticipating or already seeing a slowdown from competitors in terms of their market activity and you see a significant opportunity to gain share.

因此，通常情況下，當美國運通這樣做時，是因為——或者至少在過去，你曾經看到過這種情況發生，因為美國運通要么預期到，要么已經看到競爭對手的市場活動放緩，而你看到了獲得份額的巨大機會。

Is that -- is any of that thought process going into this year?

那──今年還會有這樣的思考過程嗎？

And second, business development costs were lower than what was being forecast.

其次，業務發展成本低於預期。

So, I'm curious if that's due to some slower partner growth that might have meant less incentives or what went into that?

所以，我很好奇，這是否是因為合作夥伴成長放緩，從而意味著激勵減少，或者其中的原因是什麼？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

So, a couple of points, I think $6 billion for the year in total marketing is not an area we’ve ever been in before and an $800 million year over year increase is a pretty significant increase.

所以，有幾點，我認為今年的總行銷支出 60 億美元是我們以前從未達到過的水平，而同比增長 8 億美元是一個相當顯著的增長。

I think that when we make a decision, Craig, to put more marketing dollars in, it’s because we see the opportunity.

克雷格，我認為，當我們決定投入更多行銷資金時，是因為我們看到了機會。

And if you look at where we have been from a marketing spend for the first two quarters, that would show a trajectory of $6 billion.

如果你看看我們前兩季的行銷支出狀況，你會發現我們的行銷支出達到了 60 億美元。

So, we're really keeping all of our marketing spending consistent quarter to quarter because we do see the opportunity.

因此，我們確實保持所有行銷支出逐季度保持一致，因為我們確實看到了機會。

And we see the opportunity within the credit box and within the dimensions of who we're looking for - for our cardholders.

我們在信貸領域以及我們尋找的持卡人範圍內看到了機會。

It's not due to a -- we're not making this investment because of a slowdown in Billings.

這並不是因為——我們進行這項投資並不是因為比林斯的經濟放緩。

This was something that we had planned to do at the beginning of the year - where billings were or where they weren't going to be.

這是我們在年初就計劃要做的事情——確定帳單在哪裡或不在哪裡。

And as far as competitors pulling back, I don't see competitors pulling back at all.

至於競爭對手的撤退，我根本沒有看到競爭對手撤退。

I think competitors right now -- the environment is just as competitive as it's ever been.

我認為現在的競爭對手——環境與以往一樣激烈。

Obviously, you make these investments because you obviously want to gain more traction with your cardholders, and you want to gain more share.

顯然，您進行這些投資是因為您顯然希望獲得對持卡人的更多吸引力，並且希望獲得更多的份額。

Craig, let me add a few things that and I will also answer your question about business development expenses.

克雷格，讓我補充幾點，同時我也會回答你關於業務發展費用的問題。

So, the other element here to factor into the decision to invest more is the visibility we have in the balance of year performance.

因此，影響增加投資決策的另一個因素是我們對年度績效平衡的了解。

The business is generating a lot of earnings, we have more visibility in terms of the credit performance in the balance of year, in terms of the OpEx as well.

該業務正在產生大量的收益，我們對年度餘額中的信貸表現以及營運支出方面有了更多的了解。

And that gives us confidence in our ability to actually deploy more marketing dollars.

這讓我們對自己實際投入更多行銷資金的能力充滿信心。

And to get to your question about business developments, it's expenses -- there's nothing here significant.

至於你關於業務發展的問題，那就是費用——這裡沒有什麼重要的。

There was, in the quarter, some efficiencies.

本季度，我們取得了一些效率提升。

I'll use that word in terms of the Commercial spend and the incentives that we have with some Card Members and partners here.

我將用這個詞來描述我們與一些持卡會員和合作夥伴之間的商業支出和激勵措施。

And it gave us a bit of efficiency, but there was nothing related specifically to co-brand partners or anything of that nature.

這確實提高了我們的效率，但與聯合品牌合作夥伴或任何類似的東西沒有任何特別的關係。

Rick Shane, JP Morgan.

摩根大通的里克·沙恩 (Rick Shane)。

Thanks, everybody, for taking my question.

謝謝大家回答我的問題。

And I apologize I can't see my computer this morning.

而且我很抱歉今天早上我不能去看我的電腦。

So, it's a little hard to get context on the marketing spend.

因此，要了解行銷支出的背景資訊有點困難。

But what I'm trying to understand is the following, what I've heard is that given the strength of the underlying business, the incremental marketing spend is going to be funded organically as opposed to from the Accertify gain.

但我想了解的是，我聽說鑑於基礎業務的實力，增量行銷支出將由有機資金提供，而不是來自 Accertify 收益。

What I'm wondering is that $800 million year over year, has that changed materially from your prior guidance?

我想知道的是，與去年同期相比，8 億美元的成長與您之前的預期相比有重大變化嗎？

Have you, in fact, increased your expectations and funded it organically or is it roughly the same and it's just a matter of how you're going to pay for it.

事實上，你是否提高了你的期望並有機地為其提供資金，或者情況是否大致相同，而這只是一個你如何支付的問題。

Yeah.

是的。

Let me take that question and I hope you fix your computer problems soon.

讓我來回答這個問題，我希望你能盡快解決你的電腦問題。

The way to think about this is we always -- so we entered the year thinking we want to invest and we want to invest more because we see the opportunities and they are compelling investments with attractive returns.

我們總是這樣思考這個問題——所以我們在進入新的一年時就認為我們想要投資，而且想要投資更多，因為我們看到了機會，而且它們是具有誘人回報的引人注目的投資。

The fact of the matter is that the core business, which I would define as like the business, excluding the Accertify gain, is generating more earnings than we had anticipated.

事實是，核心業務（我將其定義為不包括 Accertify 收益的業務）產生的收益超出了我們的預期。

So, you're right, we can afford to spend more, and to fund it through the core business.

所以，你說得對，我們有能力花費更多，並透過核心業務來提供資金。

But on top of that, we also raised, a little bit, our marketing dollars.

但除此之外，我們也增加了一些行銷費用。

Now it’s not a significant amount.

現在這個數目還不算很大。

You know, as we've said in the past, in a given week we spend $120 million on average of marketing dollars.

你知道，正如我們過去所說的，我們每周平均花費 1.2 億美元用於行銷。

So, $100 million or $200 million, a bit more a bit less, it's actually not that material.

所以，1 億美元也好，2 億美元也好，多一點，少一點，其實都不是那麼重要。

But the key thing here is that in terms of the funding, it's going to be funded all from the core business and because it's generating more earnings than we had anticipated at the beginning of the year.

但這裡的關鍵是，就資金而言，所有資金都將來自核心業務，因為它產生的收益超出了我們年初的預期。

Jeff Adelson, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的傑夫·阿德爾森。

Hey, good morning Steve and Christophe.

嘿，早上好，史蒂夫和克里斯托夫。

Good morning.

早安.

Good morning.

早安.

Just wanted to revisit the credit quality a little bit.

只是想稍微重新檢視一下信用品質。

I know last quarter, Christophe, you were talking about your expectation for write offs to, kind of, continue ticking up from here and seems like your view is - has now shifted to a more stable outlook over the rest of the year.

我知道上個季度，克里斯托夫，你談到了對註銷額度從現在開始繼續上升的預期，而且似乎你的觀點已經轉向對今年剩餘時間更為穩定的展望。

Can you just maybe talk about what you're seeing from your core customers’ health.

您能否談談您對核心客戶健康狀況的觀察。

Maybe what's driving some more confidence in the outlook there?

也許是什麼讓人們對那裡的前景更有信心呢？

And then should we also be thinking about a stable reserve rate from here versus, I think you were talking about more of an uptick over the rest of the year, as well, previously.

那麼，我們是否也應該從現在開始考慮穩定的準備金利率，而不是像您之前所說的那樣，在今年剩餘時間內出現更多的上漲。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hey, good morning, Jeff.

嘿，早安，傑夫。

So you’re right.

所以你是對的。

We have changed, a little bit, the way we think about credit write offs for the balance of year end.

我們稍微改變了一下對於年末餘額信用註銷的看法。

We are at the beginning of Q3 now, we have good visibility in terms of what's going to write off in Q3 and Q4.

我們現在正處於第三季的開始階段，對於第三季和第四季的核銷情況我們有很好的了解。

So, we can be more confident in terms of providing a direction here.

因此，我們可以更有信心地提供方向。

And to your point, the direction we're providing now is that it's going to be, like, stable at about the level you saw in Q2 at around 2.1%.

對於您所說，我們現在提供的方向是，它將穩定在第二季的水平，約為 2.1%。

Now I need to say this, specifically, to address your question on the reserve and how to think about it for the balance of year.

現在我需要具體地說你關於儲備的問題以及如何考慮今年的平衡問題。

A big driver of the reserve is going to be the delinquency levels.

儲備金的一大推動因素將是違約率。

Those Card Members that are showing signs of - signals of stress early on.

那些持卡會員很早就顯露出壓力的跡象。

The delinquency improvement in the quarter, there is seasonality in that - in that improvement.

本季的拖欠率有所改善，這種改善有季節性。

And so, we expect, you know, that the delinquency rate is just going to probably tick up a bit in the balance of year and that will drive a bit of incremental reserve together with the volume growth that we expect to see.

因此，我們預計，拖欠率在今年餘下時間可能會略有上升，這將推動儲備金的增量以及我們預計的交易量成長。

But from a reserve rate standpoint, we are at 2.8%.

但從準備金利率的角度來看，我們的利率為 2.8%。

It's a good reference point for what to expect for the balance of the year.

這可以為預測今年餘下的業績提供一個很好的參考。

It might increase a little bit.

可能會增加一點點。

We'll see.

我們將會看到。

It's hard to predict where CECL is just going to land exactly at the end of Q4, but it's a good guide in terms of what to expect for the balance of year.

很難預測 CECL 在第四季末的具體表現，但對於全年剩餘時間的預期而言，這是一個很好的指導。

I would expect 2.8%, maybe 2.9%, but we're going to be in that range.

我預計是 2.8%，或許是 2.9%，但我們會在這個範圍內。

And to your point, credit losses, we expect stability from where we are now for the balance of year.

正如您所說，信貸損失，我們預計今年的餘額將保持穩定。

Mark DeVries, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的馬克‧德弗里斯 (Mark DeVries)。

Yes, thanks.

是的，謝謝。

I think you pointed out it is pretty unusual for you to let a gain like the Accertify gain fall to the bottom line.

我認為您指出過，讓 Accertify 這樣的收益降至底線是很不尋常的。

And I realize you don't give 2025 guidance.

我知道你沒有給 2025 年的指導。

But, Steve, just kind of wondering if you still expect to target that mid-teens EPS growth off this, this higher 2024 EPS level?

但是，史蒂夫，我只是想知道您是否仍希望將 2024 年的每股盈餘增幅定為十五六個百分點，即更高的每股盈餘水準？

Well, I'm actually glad you asked that question because it is a one-time gain.

嗯，我真的很高興你問了這個問題，因為這是一次性的收益。

And so, as we do give guidance for next year, we certainly do expect to be in that mid-teens EPS range.

因此，當我們給出明年的指引時，我們確實預期每股盈餘將達到十幾歲的水平。

However, we will be -- and we'd expect that people would adjust for that one-time gain.

然而，我們會——並且我們希望人們能夠適應這一一次性收益。

I think by calling out that one-time gain the way that we have and not using it within the business, I think it makes your job a little bit easier to just, sort of, remove that and then build from there.

我認為，透過像我們這樣調用一次性收益而不是在業務中使用它，我認為這會讓你的工作變得更容易一些，只需將其刪除，然後從那裡開始構建。

Because when you look at it, it's a one-time gain, that's why they call it a one-time gain.

因為當你看它時，它是一個一次性收益，這就是為什麼他們稱之為一次性收益。

But the thing that I would also point out is that because we have elevated our marketing spending to where it is, using the core business and not use the one-time gain, that gives us the opportunity to actually reset our marketing at a much higher level for next year, which will allow us to drive even more growth as we as we go forward.

但我想指出的是，由於我們已將行銷支出提升到目前的水平，並且用於核心業務而不是使用一次性收益，這使我們有機會在明年將我們的行銷重置到更高的水平，這將使我們能夠在未來推動更多的成長。

So, that's the - that's the big advantage that we look at this.

所以，這就是我們所看到的一大優勢。

By not using a one-time gain and saying, “hey, look, that's what we didn't have in our core”.

透過不使用一次性收益並說「嘿，看，這就是我們核心所沒有的」。

By adjusting up our marketing by using core earnings, our anticipation is we'll be able to keep that marketing there and grow from there going forward versus going back to the $5.2 billion.

透過使用核心收益來調整我們的行銷，我們預計我們將能夠保持現有的行銷規模並從那裡開始成長，而不是回到 52 億美元。

Cris Kennedy, William Blair.

克里斯甘迺迪，威廉布萊爾。

Good morning.

早安.

Thanks for taking the question.

感謝您回答這個問題。

At the Investor Day, digital banking was one of the key areas of investment over the next couple of years.

在投資者日，數位銀行是未來幾年投資的重點領域之一。

Can you just talk about those investments and what the goal is there?

您能談談這些投資以及目標是什麼嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Look, the overall goal is to be more engaged with both our small businesses and to be more engaged with our consumers.

我們整體的目標是更積極地參與我們的小型企業和消費者的活動。

And I think digital banking is a bit of a journey for us.

我認為數位銀行對我們來說是一個過程。

We now have multiple accounts, and we're just going to continue to invest not only in capabilities, but continue to invest in making sure that our customers are using that.

我們現在擁有多個帳戶，我們不僅會繼續投資於功能，還會繼續投資確保我們的客戶正在使用這些帳戶。

So, there'll be more to come on that.

因此，接下來還會有更多內容。

But we're at the beginning of this journey, there’s still a long way for us to go.

但我們才剛踏上這段旅程的開始，前面的路還很長。

Terry Ma, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的馬特里 (Terry Ma)。

Hey, thanks, good morning.

嘿，謝謝，早安。

I just want to get some more color on how your announced product refreshes are going in terms of just acquisitions, retentions, and just overall receptiveness and whether or not you still feel pretty good about having net card fees exit the year higher than last year.

我只是想進一步了解你們宣布的產品更新在收購、保留和整體接受度方面的進展情況，以及你是否仍然對今年的淨卡費用高於去年感到滿意。

In terms of acquisition or the product refreshes?

在收購還是產品更新方面？

In terms of just overall how product refreshes are going and whether or not you still feel pretty good about having net card fee growth exit the year…

就整體產品更新而言，以及您是否對今年年底淨卡費用的成長感到滿意…

So we feel very good about, you know, adding a bit more momentum, as we said, in terms of the card fee growth, we are at like 16% FX-adjusted.

因此，我們感覺非常好，你知道，增加了一些動力，正如我們所說的，就卡費成長而言，經外匯調整後，我們的成長率約為 16%。

And we are definitely expecting this to tick up a bit in the balance of year.

我們確實預計今年這一數字會略有上升。

It's on the back of the product refreshes, but not only on the back of product refreshes.

它依賴產品更新，但不僅僅依賴產品更新。

I mean the single most important, as I said in my prepared remarks here, single most important element of that is the renewed commitment that Card Members, tenured Card Members in the portfolio make every year to actually renew their membership.

我的意思是，正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，其中最重要的一個因素是持卡人、投資組合中的長期持卡人每年做出的真正更新會員資格的承諾。

That's a super important element of the mix here.

這是混合中非常重要的一個元素。

But card refreshes, we are on track.

但卡片刷新後，我們就回到正軌了。

We talked about 40 products and we are tracking well against that.

我們討論了 40 種產品並且正在順利追蹤。

And as Steve said, you know, Gold is next to come.

正如史蒂夫所說，黃金即將到來。

Yes.

是的。

I mean, we're about halfway through on those on those product refreshes.

我的意思是，我們已經完成了這些產品更新的一半。

Gold is the next big one to come, and it's really a little bit too early to tell how each one individually has done.

黃金是下一個大趨勢，現在判斷黃金的具體表現還為時過早。

But what you look at is, 3.4 million cards, 3.3 million cards acquired and retention rates are still strong.

但您所看到的是，已獲得 340 萬張卡、330 萬張卡，並且保留率仍然很高。

And those are the things that you look at, but we'll be able to have more color as the year goes on.

這些都是您所看到的東西，但隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠擁有更多的色彩。

Saul Martinez, HSBC.

匯豐銀行的索爾·馬丁內斯（Saul Martinez）。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，大家早安。

So the question on your EPS guide, the midpoint of your guidance range implies an EPS in the second half that, at the midpoint of the range, suggests around 2.6% growth.

因此，關於您的每股盈餘指引的問題，您的指引範圍的中點意味著下半年的每股盈餘，在該範圍的中點，意味著成長約 2.6%。

I think at the higher end, I think it's roughly a little under seven.

我認為最高值大約是略低於七。

Now, obviously, the higher marketing explains the bulk of it, if not all of it.

現在，顯然，更高級的行銷可以解釋其中的大部分，即使不是全部。

But, just wanted to ask, was there anything else there that is relevant that we should be thinking about driving that deceleration and may be different than what you had anticipated?

但是，只是想問一下，還有其他什麼相關的事情值得我們考慮來推動這種減速，並且可能與您的預期不同？

Because obviously on a core basis, your numbers, stripping out Accertify, have been better than expected in the first half, yet on a core basis you’ve kept the EPS guide unchanged.

因為顯然從核心基礎來看，剔除 Accertify 後，你們上半年的數據好於預期，但從核心基礎來看，你們仍保持 EPS 指引不變。

On that second half outlook, I think you have said in the past, correct me if I'm wrong, but card fee acceleration ends the year closer to 20%.

關於下半年的展望，我想您過去曾說過，如果我錯了請糾正我，但到今年年底，卡費加速成長將接近 20%。

I think, I don't think you've given a specific number on this call, other than to say you see some acceleration but is 20% still the bogey there?.

我認為，我不認為你在這次通話中給出了一個具體的數字，只是說你看到了一些加速，但是 20% 仍然是一個障礙嗎？

Thanks.

謝謝。

So we haven't given a number.

因此我們沒有給出一個數字。

So and I’m going to stick to that.

所以我會堅持這一點。

But your math is -- you know, we've done the math as well, and we're looking at those numbers and you need to factor, as well, into account the fact that last quarter we had the, like, about $200 million of one-off gain as well, you might remember, linked to the URR model.

但你的計算是——你知道，我們也做過計算，我們正在看這些數字，你還需要考慮上個季度我們大約有 2 億美元的一次性收益，你可能還記得，這與 URR 模型有關。

But when - as you think about the balance of year there are a couple of additional items to bake into your forecast.

但是當您考慮年度餘額時，還有一些其他項目需要考慮在您的預測中。

The first thing is that, as I said, it was on a previous question, I think it was from Jeff.

首先，正如我所說，這是之前的一個問題，我認為是傑夫提出的。

We expect to build some balances in the balance of year for credit reserve, CECL balance -- CECL reserve, sorry.

我們預計在年度餘額中建立一些信用儲備金、CECL 餘額——CECL 儲備金，抱歉。

And so that will put a bit of pressure on the EPS.

這會給每股收益帶來一些壓力。

The second thing is that OpEx, we're investing in technology, as I said in my remarks, as well.

第二件事是 OpEx，我們正在投資技術，正如我在演講中所說的。

We're investing in our control management capabilities, and typically, as well, there’s a seasonal factor at American Express, we've seen operating expenses tick up a little bit towards the end of the year.

我們正在投資我們的控制管理能力，而且通常情況下，美國運通也存在季節性因素，我們發現臨近年底的營運費用會略有上升。

So, when you bake all of this into account, including a bit more marketing that we are projecting at this, at this point in time in the balance of year, you actually get back on your feet and you'll see that the EPS cadence or run rate is actually not moving that much and remains, like, very high.

因此，當你將所有這些都考慮進去時，包括我們目前預計的更多行銷，在今年餘下的這個時間點，你實際上會重新站起來，你會發現每股收益節奏或運行率實際上並沒有發生太大變化，而且仍然非常高。

Moshe Orenbush, TD Cowen.

Moshe Orenbush，TD Cowen。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Is there -- as you look at the net interest income, that did decelerate about 6 points in the quarter from the first quarter level, but still the growth rate of NII is still well above the growth rate in loans.

從淨利息收入來看，本季的淨利息收入較第一季的水準確實下降了約 6 個百分點，但 NII 的成長率仍然遠高於貸款的成長率。

As you kind of approach the end of the year, do you think that those two kind of converge?

隨著今年年底的臨近，您認為這兩者會融合嗎？

Or will there be margin pressure?

或者利潤率會有壓力嗎？

And could that and net interest income growth be lower than the growth in balances by then?

那麼到那時，淨利息收入的成長會低於餘額的成長嗎？

Thank you for your question, Moshe.

謝謝你的提問，Moshe。

There are a couple of things to keep in mind here.

這裡有幾件事要記住。

The first one is that as I’ve said, we should expect the volume, the balances, the loans growth rate to moderate a bit further in the balance of year, although it will remain in double digit.

第一個是，正如我所說的，我們預計今年的貸款量、餘額和貸款成長率將進一步放緩，儘管仍將保持兩位數。

From a yield standpoint, we have a slide that shows the yields, we had a bit of a yield improvement on the back of, you know, I would say a few things.

從收益率的角度來看，我們有一張投影片顯示收益率，我們的收益率有所提高，我想說幾件事。

Year over year yield improvement on the back of, you know, the revolve rates are a bit higher and they keep ticking up a little bit.

您知道，由於循環利率略高，而且還在持續小幅上漲，因此收益率逐年增加。

And the second thing is, as we covered during the investor day on the funding side, we still have this dynamic around a bigger share of our funding mix going to high-yield savings accounts, which for us is an effective funding channel.

第二件事是，正如我們在投資者日關於融資方面提到的那樣，我們仍然保持這種動態，即我們的融資組合中更大比例的資金流向高收益儲蓄帳戶，這對我們來說是一種有效的融資管道。

And so that dynamic is still going to play out in the balance of year.

因此，這種動態仍將在今年年底前發揮作用。

And so, you should expect to see the NII growth rate kind of, like, moderate a bit in the balance of year.

因此，您應該會看到 NII 成長率在今年餘下時間會略有放緩。

Mihir Bhatia, Bank of America.

美國銀行的米希爾·巴蒂亞 (Mihir Bhatia)。

Hi, thank you for taking my question.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。

Wanted to go back just staying on spending and revenue.

想要回到只專注於支出和收入的狀態。

Is it fair to say that you’re planning for the softer spending environment to continue for the next couple of quarters?

您是否計劃在接下來的幾季繼續保持較為疲軟的支出環境？

So, discount revenue growth will be at like current quarter levels, probably a fair way to think about it or are you thinking any change in that trajectory?

那麼，折扣收入成長將與當前季度水準持平，這可能是一個合理的想法，還是您認為該軌跡會有任何變化？

And then just relatedly on spending, if I could just – if you could just tell us what happened in Large and Global spend?

然後就支出而言，如果您可以告訴我們大額和全球支出的情況，那我是否可以告訴您？

It looked like it decelerated a fair amount.

看起來它的速度已經減速不少了。

So, is there anything to call there?

那麼，那裡有東西可以打電話嗎？

I mean, I know it's a smaller business, but so - fairly meaningful deceleration.

我的意思是，我知道這是一家規模較小的企業，但是 - 減速相當顯著。

So let me take the first one around how we're thinking about Billings.

那麼，首先讓我來談談我們對比林斯的看法。

So we are -- as I said, you know, we see a lot of stability across the last two, three quarters and even a bit further when you look at this in detail.

所以，正如我所說，你知道，如果你詳細地看一下，我們會發現過去兩三個季度，甚至更長時間裡，情況都非常穩定。

So, you know, from a guidance standpoint, when we develop the guidance and the revenue guidance that's what we bake in.

所以，你知道，從指導的角度來看，當我們制定指導和收入指導時，這就是我們所包含的內容。

If there is upside to that spend level, then all - it's going to be a good thing for us.

如果該支出水準有上升空間，那麼對我們來說都是一件好事。

But from a guidance standpoint, that's what we are assuming on the revenue side.

但從指導的角度來看，這就是我們對收入的假設。

When it comes to Global and Large, last quarter you remember there was, like, a tick up, it was at 5%.

說到全球和大型企業，您記得上個季度有一個小幅上漲，達到了 5%。

This quarter there was - we’re back to that 0%.

本季度，我們又回到了 0% 的水平。

There are a few things here, like, there is really nothing meaningful outside of, like, we noticed in, like, one specific client, like, a significant drop in terms of their Card Member usage.

這裡有幾件事，例如，除了我們注意到一個特定客戶之外，真的沒有什麼有意義的事情，例如，他們的卡片會員使用量顯著下降。

But there was nothing really material there, not a big change, not an inflection point in terms of what we’re seeing in terms of Corporate Card spend.

但就我們所看到的公司卡消費情況而言，並沒有什麼實質的變化，也沒有什麼轉折點。

Donna, back to you.

唐娜，回到你身邊。

Well, with that, we will bring the call to an end.

好吧，我們的通話就到此結束。

Thank you again for joining today's call and for your continued interest in American Express.

再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議並感謝您對美國運通的持續關注。

The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions.

IR 團隊將隨時解答任何後續問題。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Donna?

唐娜？

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast replay will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.americanexpress.com, shortly after the call.

女士們、先生們，電話會議結束後不久，網路直播重播將在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上提供。

You can also access the digital replay of the call at 8776606853 or 2016127415, access code 13747456.

您也可以撥打 8776606853 或 2016127415（存取代碼 13747456）收聽此通話的數位重播。

After 1:00 PM, Eastern time on July 19, through July 26.

美國東部時間 7 月 19 日下午 1 點後至 7 月 26 日。

That will conclude our conference call for today.

今天的電話會議就到此結束。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。