美國運通 (AXP) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

美國運通公佈第二季度盈利強勁,收入和每股收益均創歷史新高。該公司重申了今年的指引,並強調了其差異化的業務模式和強大的合作夥伴關係。他們還宣布了首席財務官的過渡。

該公司第二季度業績顯示其長期增長目標取得了進展,收入達到歷史新高,淨利潤和每股收益均有所增長。隨著旅行和娛樂支出的強勁增長,其網絡上的支出量有所增長。該公司向股東返還資本,並重新確認了全年的收入指引。

在財報電話會議上,高管們表達了對實現增長指導的信心,並討論了消費者支出的積極趨勢。他們還承認商業增長放緩,並強調要重點關注獲取新的小企業客戶。該公司解決了對賬單增長放緩的擔憂,並表示有信心達到收入指引。他們討論了積極的信貸投資組合以及未來信貸指標改善的計劃。

隨著國際市場的反彈以及千禧一代的強勁收購和支出,該公司的長期增長計劃取得了成功。該公司看到了企業部門的增長機會,並預計小型企業增長將會加快。他們強調了投資客戶的重要性,並強調了價值主張和會員模式。該公司的營銷費用將保持不變,重點放在客戶獲取上。

他們表達了對巴塞爾協議 III 法規的擔憂,並對自己補充資本的能力表示信心。該公司討論了其網絡合作夥伴的流程收入,並強調了他們為擴大覆蓋範圍和發行更多卡所做的努力。電話會議以感謝和提出後續問題的方式結束。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Express Q2 2023 Earnings Call.

    女士們先生們,感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加美國運通 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。

  • (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Kerri Bernstein. Thank you. Please go ahead.

    (操作員說明)謹此提醒,今天的通話正在錄音。現在我將會議交給我們的東道主投資者關係主管 Kerri Bernstein 女士。謝謝。請繼續。

  • Kerri S. Bernstein - Head of IR

    Kerri S. Bernstein - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Donna, and thank you all for joining today's call. As a reminder, before we begin, the discussion contains certain forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance. These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties.

    謝謝唐娜,也感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。提醒一下,在我們開始之前,討論包含一些有關公司未來業務和財務業績的前瞻性陳述。這些基於管理層當前的預期,並受到風險和不確定性的影響。

  • Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC. The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures. The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discussed. All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com. We'll begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results. And then Jeff Campbell, Chief Financial Officer, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance.

    可能導致實際結果與這些陳述存在重大差異的因素包含在今天的演示幻燈片和我們向 SEC 提交的報告中。今天的討論還包括非公認會計準則財務指標。可比較的公認會計準則財務指標包含在本季度的收益材料以及我們討論的前期收益材料中。所有這些都發佈在我們的網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上。今天我們將由董事長兼首席執行官 Steve Squeri 開始,他將首先介紹公司的進展和成果。然後首席財務官傑夫坎貝爾將對我們的財務業績進行更詳細的審查。

  • After that, we'll move to a Q&A session on the results with both Kiev and Jeff. With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

    之後,我們將與基輔和傑夫進行有關結果的問答環節。那麼,讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

  • Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

    Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

  • Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today for our second quarter earnings call. This was the sixth consecutive quarter of strong performance since we announced the growth plan in January of [2020]. Revenues of $15 billion grew 12% year-over-year and reached a record high for the fifth straight quarter. Earnings per share of $2.89 is also a quarterly record and is also up 12% over the last year.

    大家,早安。感謝您今天參加我們的第二季度財報電話會議。這是自我們於 [2020] 年 1 月宣布增長計劃以來連續第六個季度表現強勁。營收達 150 億美元,同比增長 12%,連續第五個季度創歷史新高。每股收益 2.89 美元也創季度紀錄,也比去年增長 12%。

  • Based on our performance through the first half, we are reaffirming our guidance for the year of delivering revenue growth of 15% to 17% and EPS of $11 to $11.40. We also remain focused on achieving our growth plan aspirations of annual revenue growth in excess of 10% and mid-teens EPS growth in 2024 and beyond in a steady-state macro environment. I continue to feel very good about our ability to achieve these long-term aspirations. Let me tell you why. As I've said on previous calls and at investor conferences, we have a business model that's differentiated from others in the industry which gives us some important advantages. Our business model is built largely around a fee-based premium -- our fee-based premium products, which drive our spend-centric economics and produce a fast-growing stream of subscription-like revenues.

    根據我們上半年的業績,我們重申今年的收入增長 15% 至 17%,每股收益 11 至 11.40 美元的指導。我們還繼續致力於實現我們的增長計劃目標,即在穩態宏觀環境下,到 2024 年及以後年收入增長超過 10%,每股收益增長達到中位數。我仍然對我們實現這些長期願望的能力感到非常滿意。讓我來告訴你為什麼。正如我在之前的電話會議和投資者會議上所說,我們擁有與業內其他公司不同的商業模式,這給我們帶來了一些重要的優勢。我們的商業模式主要是圍繞收費溢價建立的——我們的收費溢價產品推動了我們以支出為中心的經濟發展,並產生了快速增長的訂閱式收入流。

  • Spending is the largest contributor of revenues while lending plays a more modest role in our model. This revenue mix is a key differentiator for us. It all starts with our premium customer base, which is built on our trusted brand. We have a global scale that's unmatched in the industry and leadership positions with a diverse range of high-quality customers. We build long-term relationships through our unique membership model, which we constantly evolve to attract new customers and grow with them over time. Our high spending Card Members attract a wider and merchants and business partners, giving our customers and partners even more reasons to stay with us, which fuels a virtuous cycle of growth.

    支出是收入的最大貢獻者,而貸款在我們的模型中發揮的作用較小。這種收入組合是我們的一個關鍵差異化因素。這一切都始於我們的優質客戶群,這是建立在我們值得信賴的品牌之上的。我們擁有行業內無與倫比的全球規模和領先地位,擁有多元化的優質客戶。我們通過獨特的會員模式建立長期關係,我們不斷發展該模式以吸引新客戶並與他們一起成長。我們的高消費卡會員吸引了更廣泛的商戶和業務合作夥伴,為我們的客戶和合作夥伴提供了更多理由留在我們身邊,從而推動了良性增長循環。

  • Partnerships play an important role in our model. We have a long history of partnering with brands who share our values of backing customers with world-class products and services and who value developing broad-based and long-term relationships with us. Hilton is one of those long-standing partnerships. Our relationship started 70 years ago when we opened a travel office at a Hilton hotel in Madrid that grew into a merchant relationship after we began issuing cards. And then became our first co-brand partner in the 90s. The partnership has lasted and grown over time because we evolve together and put our customers at the center of what we do. Today, I'm pleased to announce that we've signed a 10-year extension of our relationship with Hilton which includes continuing as the exclusive co-brand issuer of Hilton consumer and small business cards in the United States as well as extensions of our travel and merchant relationships.

    合作夥伴關係在我們的模式中發揮著重要作用。我們與品牌合作有著悠久的歷史,這些品牌與我們有著共同的價值觀,即為客戶提供世界一流的產品和服務,並且重視與我們建立廣泛的長期關係。希爾頓就是這些長期合作夥伴之一。我們的關係始於 70 年前,當時我們在馬德里的一家希爾頓酒店開設了一家旅行辦事處,並在我們開始發行信用卡後發展成為商業關係。然後成為我們90年代第一個聯合品牌合作夥伴。隨著時間的推移,這種合作關係得以持續和發展,因為我們共同發展,並將客戶置於我們工作的中心。今天,我很高興地宣布,我們與希爾頓簽署了為期 10 年的合作關係延期協議,其中包括繼續作為希爾頓消費者卡和小型商務卡在美國的獨家聯合品牌發行商,以及擴展我們的旅行和商業關係。

  • This extension builds on the strong foundation we've built over the years with Hilton and gives us a long runway to invest in products and services and (inaudible) that attract new customers and deepen our relationships with existing ones. It's a great example of the strength of our business model and that it touches virtually all aspects of our business, providing our customers and our partner with exceptional value. Our philosophy of making continuous strategic investments in our business model, is what's driving our growth today, and it's the way we plan to run our business going forward. For our second quarter performance, the power of our differentiated model can be seen in our results. Card Member spending hit another all-time high in the quarter with U.S. consumers and card members outside the U.S., both up by double digits, which offset some softness in U.S. small business.

    此次擴展建立在我們多年來與希爾頓建立的堅實基礎之上,為我們投資產品和服務以及(聽不清)吸引新客戶並加深與現有客戶的關係提供了一條漫長的道路。這是我們業務模式優勢的一個很好的例子,它幾乎涉及我們業務的所有方面,為我們的客戶和合作夥伴提供卓越的價值。我們對業務模式進行持續戰略投資的理念是推動我們今天增長的動力,也是我們計劃未來經營業務的方式。對於我們第二季度的業績,我們的差異化模型的力量可以從我們的結果中看出。本季度美國消費者和美國境外的持卡會員支出均創下兩位數增長,抵消了美國小企業的部分疲軟。

  • Millennial and Gen Z consumers continue to be the fastest-growing portion of our card member base with U.S. billings up 21% in the quarter. Of particular note, you'll recall that our international card business was our fastest-growing segment for several years prior to the pandemic, and it's again the fastest growing. We continue to see strong growth in travel and entertainment spending, which increased by double digits in the quarter and remains strong across customer categories and geographies. Q2 is a record quarter for restaurant reservations through our Resy platform, and bookings to our consumer travel business reached their highest levels since before the pandemic. We also saw continued strong demand for our premium products in the quarter.

    千禧一代和 Z 世代消費者仍然是我們持卡會員群體中增長最快的部分,本季度美國的賬單增長了 21%。特別值得注意的是,您會記得,我們​​的國際卡業務是疫情爆發前幾年增長最快的業務,現在也是增長最快的業務。我們繼續看到旅行和娛樂支出的強勁增長,本季度增長了兩位數,並且在不同的客戶類別和地區保持強勁。第二季度是通過我們的 Resy 平台進行餐廳預訂的創紀錄季度,我們的消費者旅遊業務的預訂量達到了疫情爆發前以來的最高水平。本季度我們還看到對我們優質產品的持續強勁需求。

  • With over 70% of the new accounts we acquired on fee-based products and more than 60% of new customer accounts acquired globally are coming from Millennials and Gen Z. While a number of new accounts is important, we pay particular attention to the quality and potential revenues they represent. And when you look at the accounts we've acquired over the last year compared to those we acquired over a comparable period pre-pandemic. The overall revenue being generated by these new accounts is up substantially over 2019. Importantly, we continue to be thoughtful about who we grow with and how. And you see that in our results. Our credit metrics remain best-in-class, supported by the premium nature of our customer base, our robust risk management capabilities and a thoughtful underwriting actions we take on an ongoing basis that we've discussed with you on these calls over the last several quarters. Before I turn it over to Jeff, I want to take a couple of minutes to talk about our CFO transition.

    我們通過收費產品獲得的新賬戶中有超過 70%,全球獲得的新客戶賬戶中有超過 60% 來自千禧一代和 Z 世代。雖然新賬戶的數量很重要,但我們特別關注它們所代表的質量和潛在收入。當你將我們去年獲得的客戶與我們在大流行前的可比時期獲得的客戶進行比較時。這些新客戶產生的總體收入比 2019 年大幅增長。重要的是,我們繼續思考與誰一起成長以及如何成長。您可以在我們的結果中看到這一點。我們的信用指標仍然是一流的,這得益於我們優質的客戶群、強大的風險管理能力以及我們在過去幾個季度的電話會議中與您討論的持續採取的深思熟慮的承保行動。在將其交給傑夫之前,我想花幾分鐘時間談談我們的首席財務官的過渡。

  • As we announced last month Jeff will be stepping down as our CFO on August 14, at which time, our deputy Control, our Deputy CFO, Christophe Le Caillec will become CFO of the company. First, I want to recognize Jeff and thank him for his outstanding tenure as our CFO for the past decade. He's been an invaluable partner and friend to me and to American Express throughout his time at the company. Jeff's Insights, strategic acumen and calm focused approach has helped us navigate through numerous challenges, including the unprecedented COVID Pandemic, while strengthening the company's overall financial position and the flexibility of our business model. Jeff is a person of exceptional integrity, and our company is stronger today because of him.

    正如我們上個月宣布的那樣,Jeff 將於 8 月 14 日辭去我們首席財務官的職務,屆時,我們的副控制官、副首席財務官 Christophe Le Caillec 將成為公司的首席財務官。首先,我要感謝杰夫並感謝他在過去十年擔任我們的首席財務官期間的出色表現。在公司任職期間,他一直是我和美國運通公司的寶貴合作夥伴和朋友。傑夫的洞察力、戰略敏銳性和冷靜專注的方法幫助我們應對了眾多挑戰,包括前所未有的新冠疫情,同時加強了公司的整體財務狀況和業務模式的靈活性。傑夫是一個非常正直的人,我們的公司今天因為他而變得更加強大。

  • While Jeff will officially be stepping down as CFO in mid-August, he'll be staying on as our Vice Chairman until next March, during which time he will be available to me, Christophe and our Executive Committee as we work on many of the important matters facing the company. Jeff, I speak for all of us at American Express when I say that it's truly been an honor and a pleasure working with you as our CFO these last 10 years. I also want to welcome Christophe who has been a trusted partner to our leadership team and a key contributor to our company's growth for 25 years.

    雖然 Jeff 將於 8 月中旬正式辭去首席財務官的職務,但他將繼續擔任我們的副主席,直到明年 3 月,在此期間,我、Christophe 和我們的執行委員會將在我們處理公司面臨的許多重要事務時,他將隨時為我服務。傑夫,我代表美國運通全體員工說,過去 10 年與您作為我們的首席財務官一起工作確實是一種榮幸和愉快。我還要歡迎 Christophe,他是我們領導團隊值得信賴的合作夥伴,也是我們公司 25 年來發展的關鍵貢獻者。

  • As our Deputy CFO, Christophe works closely with our executive in, Jeff and me to drive our financial strategy and performance. Over his tenure, he has served in finance leadership roles across the company. Christophe has gained a deep knowledge of all aspects of our business and his experience and thoughtful analysis play a key role in our strategic decision-making. I'm sure you all enjoy getting to know it.

    作為我們的副首席財務官,Christophe 與我們的高管 Jeff 和我密切合作,推動我們的財務戰略和績效。在任職期間,他在整個公司擔任財務領導職務。 Christophe 對我們業務的各個方面都有深入的了解,他的經驗和深思熟慮的分析在我們的戰略決策中發揮著關鍵作用。我相信你們都喜歡了解它。

  • With that, I'll now turn it over to Jeff for his 85th earnings call as a public company CFO and his 41st and final call as the CFO of American Express.

    現在,我將把它交給傑夫,參加他作為上市公司首席財務官的第 85 次財報電話會議,以及他作為美國運通首席財務官的第 41 次也是最後一次電話會議。

  • Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

    Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

  • Well, thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. It's good to be here to talk about our second quarter results, which are tracking with the guidance we gave for the full year and reflects steady progress against our long-term growth aspirations.

    好吧,謝謝你,史蒂夫,大家早上好。很高興在這裡談論我們的第二季度業績,該業績與我們給出的全年指導一致,反映了我們在實現長期增長目標方面的穩步進展。

  • Starting with our summary financials on Slide 2. Our second quarter revenues were $15.1 billion, reaching a record high for the fifth straight quarter, up 13% year-over-year on an FX-adjusted basis. This revenue momentum drove reported net income of $2.2 billion and earnings per share of $2.89, up 12% year-over-year. This does represent a quarterly EPS record for the company and it also reflects the sequential strengthening we expected as we move through the year that I mentioned last quarter. Pretax pre-provision income was $3.9 billion, up 33% versus the same time period last year, reflecting the strong growth momentum in our underlying earnings.

    從幻燈片 2 上的財務摘要開始。我們第二季度的收入為 151 億美元,連續第五個季度創歷史新高,經匯率調整後同比增長 13%。這一收入勢頭推動淨利潤達到 22 億美元,每股收益達到 2.89 美元,同比增長 12%。這確實代表了該公司的季度每股收益記錄,也反映了我們在上個季度提到的這一年中預期的連續走強。稅前撥備收入為39億美元,較去年同期增長33%,反映了我們基本盈利的強勁增長勢頭。

  • So now let's get into a more detailed look at our results, which in our spend-centric business model always begins with a look at volumes, which you see on Slides 3 through 7. In total, you see on Slide 3 that we did reach a new record level for spending on our network this quarter, with total network volumes and build business up 9% and 8% year-over-year, respectively, on an FX-adjusted basis. Of course, I'd remind you that growth rates were particularly elevated last quarter as we lapped the impact of Omicron in the first quarter of the prior year. We are now seeing the more stable rates that we expect are more representative of the kind of growth rates we will see in the balance of the year.

    現在,讓我們更詳細地了解一下我們的結果,在我們以支出為中心的業務模型中,總是從流量開始,您可以在幻燈片 3 到 7 中看到這一點。總的來說,您在幻燈片 3 上看到,我們本季度的網絡支出確實達到了新的記錄水平,在匯率調整後,總網絡流量和業務增長分別同比增長 9% 和 8%。當然,我想提醒您,上個季度的增長率特別高,因為我們克服了去年第一季度 Omicron 的影響。我們現在看到,我們預期的更穩定的增長率更能代表我們在今年剩餘時間裡看到的增長率。

  • Goods and services spending grew 6% overall in the second quarter. We saw good growth in goods and services spending in U.S. consumer and international card services of 8% and 15%, respectively, while this growth rate in U.S. SME did continue to slow down a bit further from last quarter. In contrast, we saw very strong growth in travel and entertainment spending across geographies and customer types, up 14% overall driven by sustained demand for travel and dining experiences. Looking forward, I would expect this growth rate to remain in the double digits through the rest of this year.

    第二季度商品和服務支出總體增長 6%。我們看到美國消費者和國際卡服務的商品和服務支出分別增長了 8% 和 15%,而美國中小企業的增長率確實比上季度進一步放緩。相比之下,由於對旅行和餐飲體驗的持續需求,我們看到跨地區和客戶類型的旅行和娛樂支出增長非常強勁,總體增長了 14%。展望未來,我預計今年剩餘時間這一增長率將保持在兩位數。

  • Turning to our largest segment, U.S. consumer grew billing strongly at 10% this quarter. Millennial and Gen Z customers continue to drive our highest bill business growth within this segment. with their spending growing 21% year-over-year. You see our highest growth again this quarter in International Card Services with strong growth across both geographies and customer types. Spending from international consumers grew 16%, while spending from international SME and large corporate customers grew 19%.

    談到我們最大的細分市場,本季度美國消費者的收入增長強勁,達到 10%。千禧一代和 Z 世代客戶繼續推動我們在該細分市場中實現最高的賬單業務增長。他們的支出同比增長 21%。您會看到本季度國際卡服務再次實現最高增長,各個地區和客戶類型均實現強勁增長。國際消費者的支出增長了 16%,國際中小企業和大型企業客戶的支出增長了 19%。

  • This strength in spending growth from our [U.S.] consumers and card members outside the U.S. offset the continued softness in U.S. SME spending growth that we have been talking about for the past few quarters. Looking at Commercial Services, U.S. SME growth came in at 2% this quarter. Looking forward, we will continue to monitor these spending trends. Our U.S. large and global corporate customers also grew billings 2% in the second quarter, as we've said for many years, these customers, while not a particular growth driver for our business to remain an important foundation for the company's business model. Taking all of this into account, spending volumes are tracking to support our revenue guidance for the year and our long-term aspirations for sustainable growth rates greater than what we were seeing per-pandemic.

    我們的[美國]消費者和美國以外的信用卡會員的支出增長強勁抵消了我們過去幾個季度一直在談論的美國中小企業支出增長的持續疲軟。就商業服務而言,本季度美國中小企業增長率為 2%。展望未來,我們將繼續監控這些支出趨勢。我們的美國大型和全球企業客戶在第二季度的營業額也增長了 2%,正如我們多年來所說的那樣,這些客戶雖然不是我們業務的特定增長動力,但仍然是公司業務模式的重要基礎。考慮到所有這些,支出量正在跟踪,以支持我們今年的收入指導,以及我們對可持續增長率高於每次大流行期間看到的增長率的長期願望。

  • Now moving on to loans and Card Member receivables on Slide 8. We saw good continued sequential growth as well as year-over-year growth of 15%. Year-over-year growth moderated a bit this quarter as we expected, but remains elevated versus pre-pandemic levels. The interest-bearing portion of our loan and receivable balances continues to grow faster than the overall growth you see as our customers continue to rebuild balances. Importantly, the majority of this revolving loan growth in the U.S. continues to come from our high credit quality existing customers. We also included a disclosure this quarter showing that only [8%] of our U.S. Card Member loans and receivables comes from customers with a FICO less than 660.

    現在轉到幻燈片 8 上的貸款和卡會員應收賬款。我們看到了良好的持續環比增長以及 15% 的同比增長。正如我們預期的那樣,本季度同比增長略有放緩,但與大流行前的水平相比仍然較高。隨著我們的客戶繼續重建餘額,我們的貸款和應收賬款餘額的計息部分的增長速度繼續快於您所看到的整體增長速度。重要的是,美國循環貸款增長的大部分仍然來自我們高信用質量的現有客戶。本季度我們還披露了一項信息,顯示我們的美國卡會員貸款和應收賬款中只有 [8%] 來自 FICO 低於 660 的客戶。

  • As you then turn to credit and provision on Slides 9 through 11, this high credit quality of our customer base continues to show through in our best-in-class credit performance. Our Card Member loans and receivables write-off and delinquency rates remain below pre-pandemic levels. Delinquency rates remained flat quarter-over-quarter while write-off rates continue to move up a bit this quarter as we expected, as you can see on Slide 9. Going forward, as we've talked about for many quarters now, we continue to expect these delinquency and write-off rates to increase over time, but they are likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2023.

    當您轉向幻燈片 9 至 11 上的信貸和撥備時,我們客戶群的這種高信用質量繼續體現在我們一流的信用表現中。我們的卡會員貸款和應收賬款核銷率和拖欠率仍低於大流行前的水平。拖欠率環比保持持平,而沖銷率本季度繼續小幅上升,正如我們預期的那樣,正如您在幻燈片 9 中看到的那樣。展望未來,正如我們已經討論了許多季度的那樣,我們繼續預計這些拖欠率和沖銷率將隨著時間的推移而增加,但到 2023 年它們可能仍低於大流行前的水平。

  • Turning now to the accounting for this credit performance on Slide 10. The quarter-over-quarter growth in our loan balances was the primary driver of our $327 million for build. Although there was also a small component from incorporating a slightly worse macroeconomic outlook this quarter relative to last quarter. This reserve build, combined with net write-offs, drove $1.2 billion of provision expense in the second quarter. As you see on Slide 11, we ended the second quarter with $4.7 billion of reserves representing 2.6% of our total loans and card member receivables. This reserve remains about 30 basis points below the levels we had pre-pandemic or Day 1 CECL. We continue to expect this reserve rate to increase a bit as we move through 2023, while also reflecting the continued premiumization of our portfolio.

    現在轉向幻燈片 10 上的信貸績效會計。貸款餘額的環比增長是我們 3.27 億美元建設的主要推動力。儘管也有一小部分原因是本季度宏觀經濟前景較上季度略差。儲備金的增加加上淨沖銷,導致第二季度撥備支出達到 12 億美元。正如您在幻燈片 11 中看到的,第二季度末我們的準備金為 47 億美元,占我們貸款和持卡會員應收賬款總額的 2.6%。該準備金仍比大流行前或 CECL 第一天的水平低約 30 個基點。我們繼續預計,隨著 2023 年的到來,準備金率將略有上升,同時也反映出我們投資組合的持續高端化。

  • Moving next to revenue on Slide 12. Total revenues were up 13% year-over-year in the second quarter on an FX-adjusted basis. Our largest revenue line, discount revenue grew 8% year-over-year in Q2, as you can see on Slide 13, driven by the spending trends we discussed earlier. Net card fee revenues were up 22% year-over-year in the second quarter on an FX-adjusted basis as you can see on Slide 14. Growth remains quite strong, and continues to be driven largely by bringing new accounts onto our fee-paying products. This quarter, we acquired 3 million new cards and the spend, revenue and credit profiles of these acquisitions continue to look strong relative to what we saw pre-pandemic. Importantly, the acquisition trends you see on Slide 14 in this and recent quarters are consistent with our long-term growth aspirations.

    接下來是幻燈片 12 上的收入。按匯率調整後,第二季度總收入同比增長 13%。我們最大的收入線——折扣收入在第二季度同比增長了 8%,正如您在幻燈片 13 中看到的那樣,這受到我們之前討論的支出趨勢的推動。正如您在幻燈片 14 中看到的那樣,經匯率調整後,第二季度網卡費用收入同比增長 22%。增長仍然相當強勁,並且繼續主要由我們的付費產品引入新賬戶來推動。本季度,我們購買了 300 萬張新卡,與我們在大流行前看到的情況相比,這些收購的支出、收入和信用狀況仍然強勁。重要的是,您在幻燈片 14 上看到的本季度和最近幾個季度的收購趨勢與我們的長期增長願望一致。

  • Moving on to Slide 15, you can see that net interest income was up 32% year-over-year, driven primarily by the growth in our revolving loan balances. To sum up on revenues on Slide 16, we're seeing broad-based revenue growth across our revenue lines. We're tracking with our expectations. So looking forward, we still expect to see revenue growth within our range of 15% to 17% for the full year of 2023. The revenue momentum we just discussed has been driven by the investments we've made. And those investments show up across the expense lines you see on Slide 17. Starting with variable customer engagement expenses, these costs came in at 42% of total revenues in the second quarter and are tracking with our expectation for them to run at around 43% of total revenues on a full year basis.

    轉到幻燈片 15,您可以看到淨利息收入同比增長 32%,這主要是由我們的循環貸款餘額增長推動的。總結幻燈片 16 上的收入,我們看到各個收入線的收入都在廣泛增長。我們正在跟踪我們的期望。因此,展望未來,我們仍然預計 2023 年全年的收入增長將在 15% 至 17% 的範圍內。我們剛才討論的收入勢頭是由我們所做的投資推動的。這些投資顯示在您在幻燈片 17 中看到的費用線中。從可變的客戶參與費用開始,這些成本佔第二季度總收入的 42%,並且與我們預期的一致,佔全年總收入的 43% 左右。

  • On the marketing line, we invested $1.4 billion in the quarter, on track with our expectation to have full year marketing spend of around $5.5 billion. We remain focused on driving efficiencies so that our marketing dollars grow slower than revenues while continuing to drive the high-quality (inaudible) that Steve discussed earlier. Moving to the bottom of Slide 17, brings us to operating expenses which were $3.4 billion in the second quarter, also tracking with our expectation for operating expenses to be around $14 billion for the full year. This quarter, you see that, as we expected, we have far less growth in OpEx relative to our high level of revenue growth. And looking forward, we continue to see OpEx as a key source of leverage.

    在營銷方面,我們本季度投資了 14 億美元,預計全年營銷支出約為 55 億美元。我們仍然專注於提高效率,以便我們的營銷費用增長速度慢於收入增長,同時繼續提高史蒂夫之前討論的高質量(聽不清)。轉到幻燈片 17 的底部,我們看到第二季度的運營支出為 34 億美元,也符合我們對全年運營支出約為 140 億美元的預期。本季度,您會看到,正如我們預期的那樣,相對於高水平的收入增長,我們的運營支出增長要少得多。展望未來,我們繼續將運營支出視為槓桿的關鍵來源。

  • Turning next to capital on Slide 18. We returned $1.6 billion of capital to our shareholders in the second quarter, including common stock purchases of $1.1 billion and $446 million in common stock dividends, all on the back of strong earnings generation. Now as you know, this is an off-cycle year for Amex as a CCAR bank. Let me briefly remind you of our capital management approach. We generally increased our dividend roughly in line with earnings and target a 20% to 25% payout ratio. And you saw us do that as we increased our dividend by 15% to $0.60 per share last quarter. We target a CET1 ratio between 10% and 11%. And we ended the second quarter in the middle of that range at 10.6%. As we think about the potential finalization of Basel III, I'd remind you that our 10% to 11% CET1 target range is actually well above our current regulatory minimum of 7%.

    接下來轉向幻燈片 18 上的資本。我們在第二季度向股東返還了 16 億美元的資本,包括購買 11 億美元的普通股和 4.46 億美元的普通股股息,所有這些都得益於強勁的盈利能力。如您所知,對於美國運通作為 CCAR 銀行來說,今年是非週期的一年。讓我簡要提醒您我們的資本管理方法。我們通常會根據盈利增加股息,並設定 20% 至 25% 的派息率目標。你看到我們這樣做了,上個季度我們將股息增加了 15% 至每股 0.60 美元。我們的目標是 CET1 比率在 10% 到 11% 之間。第二季度末,我們的增長率處於該範圍的中間,為 10.6%。當我們考慮巴塞爾協議 III 的潛在最終確定時,我想提醒您,我們 10% 至 11% 的 CET1 目標範圍實際上遠高於目前 7% 的最低監管水平。

  • We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth and we don't expect any material near-term changes to our capital management approach, driven by the evolution of these rules. So that then brings us to Slide 19 in the growth plan. To step back for a minute, I joined American Express 10 years ago in 2013 because I was excited about the long-term growth prospects for the company. Today, as I join you from my last earnings call, I'm actually even more excited about those growth prospects. Steve and I first introduced our new multiyear growth aspirations back in January of 2022. And I would point out that Christophe was in the room for every key decision we made as we developed that plan with the senior business leaders across Amex.

    我們計劃繼續向股東返還我們產生的多餘資本,同時支持我們的資產負債表增長,並且我們預計在這些規則的演變的推動下,我們的資本管理方法短期內不會發生任何重大變化。接下來我們將看到幻燈片 19 中的增長計劃。退一步來說,我在 10 年前的 2013 年加入了美國運通,因為我對公司的長期增長前景感到興奮。今天,當我參加上一次財報電話會議時,我實際上對這些增長前景感到更加興奮。早在 2022 年 1 月,史蒂夫和我就首次介紹了我們新的多年增長願景。我要指出的是,當我們與美國運通的高級業務領導者一起制定該計劃時,克里斯托夫參與了我們做出的每一個關鍵決策。

  • Now in July of 2023, we have consistently achieved the aspirations we set out 6 quarters ago, thanks to the great efforts of our 77,000 colleagues across American Express. So we are reconfirming today, our 2023 full year revenue guidance of 15% to 17% growth with EPS in the range of $11 to $11.40. Our revenue momentum and customer acquisition trends are positioning us well for our growth aspirations this year in 2024 and beyond. So this momentum, combined with this being my 85th consecutive earnings call across 3 industries without a break makes this a good time for me to transition the CFO role to Christophe. With that, I'll ask Christophe to say a few words before Steve and I take your questions.

    現在到了 2023 年 7 月,在美國運通 77,000 名同事的巨大努力下,我們始終如一地實現了 6 個季度前設定的目標。因此,我們今天再次確認 2023 年全年收入增長 15% 至 17% 的預期,每股收益在 11 美元至 11.40 美元之間。我們的收入勢頭和客戶獲取趨勢使我們能夠很好地實現 2024 年及以後的增長目標。因此,這種勢頭,再加上這是我連續第 85 次在 3 個行業不間斷地召開財報電話會議,這使得這是我將 CFO 職位移交給 Christophe 的好時機。接下來,在史蒂夫和我回答你們的問題之前,我會請克里斯托夫說幾句話。

  • Christophe Le Caillec

    Christophe Le Caillec

  • Thank you, Jeff, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to continue the strong legacy of performance that Steve and Jeff have delivered. I look forward to spending time with many of you on the call in the coming months. With that, I'll turn the call over back to Kerri to open up the call for your questions.

    謝謝你,傑夫,大家早上好。我很高興能夠延續史蒂夫和傑夫所創造的強大的業績遺產。我期待著在接下來的幾個月裡與你們中的許多人一起參加電話會議。這樣,我會將電話轉回給 Kerri,以解答您的問題。

  • Kerri S. Bernstein - Head of IR

    Kerri S. Bernstein - Head of IR

  • Thank you, Christophe. Before we open up the lines for Q&A, I will ask those in the queue to please limit yourself to just one question. Thank you for your cooperation. And with that, the operator will now open up the line for questions. Donna?

    謝謝你,克里斯托夫。在我們開放問答隊列之前,我會請隊列中的人限制自己只回答一個問題。謝謝您的合作。話務員現在將開放提問線路。唐娜?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Sanjay Sakhrani of KBW.

    (操作員說明)我們的第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

  • Sanjay Harkishin Sakhrani - MD

    Sanjay Harkishin Sakhrani - MD

  • Congratulations, Jeff. You've had quite a run at American Express has been very helpful throughout your tenure and I'm sure you will be in your remaining position. Christophe, I look forward to working with you.

    恭喜,傑夫。您在美國運通公司的表現在您的整個任期內都非常有幫助,我相信您將繼續擔任剩下的職位。克里斯托夫,我期待著與你合作。

  • My first question is on billed business growth. Obviously, there's so much noise over the last couple of years and even in this year. And I'm just -- Jeff, you talked about stabilization going forward and expecting that. Could you just talk about what gives you the confidence that you see that stabilization because we're still a little bit above trend in terms of that growth? And then what you need in the back half to get to that growth guidance on revenues?

    我的第一個問題是關於計費業務增長。顯然,過去幾年甚至今年都有很多噪音。我只是 - 傑夫,你談到了未來的穩定並期待這一點。您能否談談是什麼讓您有信心看到這種穩定,因為我們的增長仍略高於趨勢?那麼下半年您需要什麼才能獲得收入增長指導?

  • Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

    Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

  • So gosh, I guess I don't particularly Sanjay see as above trend. What gives us confidence is looking at what has actually happened in our business over the course of this year. In the first quarter, you were clearly lapping Omicron. And that was, in some ways, I think, the last of the pandemic-driven noise in our results.

    所以天哪,我想我並不特別認為 Sanjay 認為上述趨勢。讓我們有信心的是看看今年我們業務中實際發生的事情。在第一季度,你顯然超越了 Omicron。我認為,從某些方面來說,這是我們結果中最後一個由流行病驅動的噪音。

  • As you got into the second quarter, we have seen stabilization across geographies at a level that I would suggest is actually consistent with being in a pretty low-growth economy. And what we're hearing from us is with the kind of volume growth that you see this quarter, which we think has stabilized, which we think will continue. That is consistent with both the guidance we provided for this year as well as with our longer-term growth aspirations.

    當進入第二季度時,我們已經看到各個地區的穩定水平,我認為這實際上與經濟增長相當低的情況一致。我們從我們那裡聽到的是本季度看到的銷量增長,我們認為這種增長已經穩定下來,我們認為這種增長將持續下去。這符合我們今年提供的指導以及我們的長期增長願望。

  • I would point out, at some point, the economy is likely to get stronger, but even with the economy and its current kind of low growth state, the volume growth that we're seeing now allows us to achieve what we have been committing to for 6 quarters.

    我想指出的是,在某個時候,經濟可能會變得更加強勁,但即使經濟目前處於低增長狀態,我們現在看到的數量增長也使我們能夠實現我們在 6 個季度裡所承諾的目標。

  • Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

    Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. And look, I mean, just look at consumer, right? I mean consumer in the U.S. is up at 10%. T&E is still very, very strong. We talked about travel bookings, travel bookings more than 1 month out are higher than they've been pre-pandemic. They were higher than they were at this time last year. They were higher than they were, obviously, in 2019.

    是的。我的意思是,看看消費者,對嗎?我的意思是美國的消費者增長了 10%。 T&E 仍然非常非常強大。我們談到了旅行預訂,1 個多月後的旅行預訂量高於大流行前。它們比去年這個時候要高。顯然,它們比 2019 年要高。

  • International is really coming back strong for us. And as we said, it's a fastest growing part of our business. And the other thing I'll point out is you just had -- you had a little hangover of noise from Omicron in this quarter because last year, you had a little bit of spending that was pushed from the first quarter to the second quarter. And if you look at -- if you go back and look sequentially last year was a huge increase sequentially quarter-over-quarter. So we feel really good about. I mean it's hard to apologize for record billings. And as Jeff said, it's the billings we need to hit our growth plans. So we feel really good about it. And the other point I'll just reiterate again is that, look, we're in a low-growth economy right now.

    國際比賽對我們來說確實強勢回歸。正如我們所說,這是我們業務中增長最快的部分。我要指出的另一件事是,本季度 Omicron 的噪音給您帶來了一些後遺症,因為去年,您的一些支出從第一季度推到了第二季度。如果你回顧一下,去年的季度環比大幅增長。所以我們感覺非常好。我的意思是很難為創紀錄的賬單道歉。正如傑夫所說,這是我們實現增長計劃所需的賬單。所以我們對此感覺非常好。我要再次重申的另一點是,我們現在正處於低增長經濟之中。

  • We're still at the acquiring card members. Credit is really good. Our base is changing in terms of more Millennials and Gen Z who will grow with us. And as the economy gets better, we expect the spending to pick up. So we feel really confident.

    我們仍在收單卡會員中。信用確實很好。我們的基礎正在發生變化,更多的千禧一代和 Z 世代將與我們一起成長。隨著經濟好轉,我們預計支出將會增加。所以我們非常有信心。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Ryan Nash of Goldman Sachs.

    下一個問題來自高盛的瑞安·納什。

  • Ryan Matthew Nash - MD

    Ryan Matthew Nash - MD

  • Good morning, everyone.

    大家,早安。

  • Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

    Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

  • Good morning, Ryan.

    早上好,瑞安。

  • Ryan Matthew Nash - MD

    Ryan Matthew Nash - MD

  • Jeff, it's been a pleasure working with you and best of luck in the future. And Christophe, I'm looking forward to working with you in the future. Maybe to drill down into 2 areas that were highlighted on the call. First, commercial, obviously, we've seen a big slowdown there to 2% year-over-year growth.

    傑夫,很高興與您合作,祝您未來一切順利。 Christophe,我期待著將來與您合作。或許可以深入探討電話會議中強調的兩個領域。首先,在商業領域,我們明顯看到同比增長大幅放緩至 2%。

  • Steve, maybe just talk about what's driving the slowdown and what do we need to see for a reacceleration? And maybe just drill a little bit further on T&E in terms of your confidence. Like it seems like sequentially, it may have slowed a little bit, but I think the point that year-over-year growth rates are still strong. So can you maybe just talk about what you see as the key drivers of that remaining in double digits?

    史蒂夫,也許只是談談是什麼導致了經濟放緩,以及我們需要看到什麼才能重新加速?也許只是在你的信心方面進一步鑽研一下 T&E。就像順序一樣,它可能已經放緩了一點,但我認為同比增長率仍然強勁。那麼您能否談談您認為保持兩位數增長的關鍵驅動因素是什麼?

  • Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

    Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. I mean, from a T&E perspective, and I think you just have to listen to our friends at Delta and what Ed had said, I mean, they're seeing record growth. And for us, we're seeing -- as we have a line of sight to future bookings. And so when you look at sort of consumer T&E restaurant, not only is airline bookings up, but if you look at what's going on in restaurants in terms of Resy. I mean, restaurant is probably the biggest segment that we have in T&E -- because we have all other, but we'll wind up disaggregating that. Yes, it grew 15%.

    是的。我的意思是,從 T&E 的角度來看,我認為你只需要聽聽我們在達美航空的朋友以及埃德所說的話,我的意思是,他們看到了創紀錄的增長。對於我們來說,我們正在看到——因為我們對未來的預訂有一定的了解。因此,當你看看消費者 T&E 餐廳時,不僅航空公司的預訂量增加了,而且如果你看看 Resy 餐廳的情況也有所增加。我的意思是,餐廳可能是我們 T&E 中最大的部分——因為我們有所有其他部分,但我們最終會將其分解。是的,增長了 15%。

  • And so we have really strong T&E growth, and I think that people are just back traveling. And so the line of sight into what we see from Resy and the activity we see on Resy from a restaurant perspective, from the activity that we see in our consumer travel business, we feel really [confident] about that. As far as a small business and corporate, look, I think it's so about large corporate first. I think large corporate it's crawling its way back is the best way to describe it. It is a small piece of our business. It's about 5% of our business right now. It's an important piece of our business. And we value all of the corporate relationships that we have.

    因此,我們的旅遊和娛樂增長非常強勁,我認為人們剛剛回來旅行。因此,從餐廳的角度來看,我們從 Resy 看到的情況以及我們在 Resy 上看到的活動,從我們在消費者旅遊業務中看到的活動,我們對此感到非常[自信]。就小型企業和企業而言,我認為首先是大型企業。我認為大企業正在緩慢地回歸是描述它的最好方式。這是我們業務的一小部分。目前它約占我們業務的 5%。這是我們業務的重要組成部分。我們重視我們擁有的所有企業關係。

  • But as many of us know, the first step is to get people into the (inaudible) and then the second step is to get them out onto the road. And I think what you're seeing a little bit less of is those one as one-stop trips, that quick hop to London to meet with that one client or that quick sort of run across the country to have an internal meeting, you're seeing less of that. So I think that will continue to come back. We continue to be aggressive, obviously, at retaining those customers and aggressive acquiring new customers, but I think that's going to be slower. I don't think that's coming back as fast, which is a contrast to consumer. A small business goes, I think when we look at small business, I think the biggest thing there from a small business perspective is really the organic growth.

    但正如我們許多人所知,第一步是讓人們進入(聽不清),然後第二步是讓他們上路。我認為您看到的較少的是一站式旅行,即快速前往倫敦與一位客戶會面,或者快速穿越全國參加內部會議,您看到的較少。所以我認為這種情況會繼續回來。顯然,我們將繼續積極保留這些客戶並積極獲取新客戶,但我認為這會更慢。我認為這種情況的恢復速度不會那麼快,這與消費者形成鮮明對比。小型企業是這樣的,我認為當我們看待小型企業時,我認為從小型企業的角度來看,最大的事情實際上是有機增長。

  • I think organic growth has slowed. I don't think that's a mix phenomenon. I think that's a little bit of an industry phenomenon. And I think small businesses grew very, very rapidly. And I think they have slowed down. What we have focused in on from a small business perspective is making sure we're continuing to acquire more small business customers, continuing to meet the other needs that they have, which are some lending needs for existing customers and also their deposit needs. And so as we grow both aspects of those business, -- and as when they're ready to grow again, we'll be ready to grow judiciously with them. And that's what we're focused on. So look, would we prefer that our SME business was growing like our consumer business, sure, we would.

    我認為有機增長已經放緩。我不認為這是一種混合現象。我認為這有點像行業現象。我認為小企業的增長非常非常快。我認為他們已經放慢了速度。從小型企業的角度來看,我們關注的重點是確保我們繼續獲得更多的小型企業客戶,繼續滿足他們的其他需求,其中包括現有客戶的一些貸款需求以及他們的存款需求。因此,當我們發展這些業務的兩個方面時,當他們準備好再次增長時,我們將準備好與他們一起明智地發展。這就是我們關注的重點。所以看,我們是否希望我們的中小企業業務像我們的消費者業務一樣增長,當然,我們願意。

  • But there are these cycles. And at this particular point in time, I think you're seeing a little bit of an industry-wide slowdown from a small business perspective. But again, just to pick up on Jeff's point, from before, after the slowdown comes to recovery. So we'll be poised for that.

    但存在這些循環。在這個特定的時間點,我認為從小企業的角度來看,您會看到整個行業的放緩。但再次重申一下傑夫的觀點,從經濟放緩到復甦之前來看。所以我們會為此做好準備。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley.

    下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的貝特西·格拉塞克。

  • Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

    Betsy Lynn Graseck - MD

  • And Jeff, all the best. It's been great working with you and Christophe looking forward to meeting you and working with you as well. I did just want to make sure I understood the guide on the rev outlook here because what I'm hearing and tell me where I'm wrong. What I'm hearing is that, billings growth you're anticipating something similar to what you generated this quarter on a year-on-year basis for the second half of this year. And that's a little bit of a slower pace obviously than the rev guide of 15% to 17%. Clearly, 1Q was very strong, well above that.

    傑夫,一切順利。與您合作非常愉快,Christophe 也期待見到您並與您合作。我只是想確保我理解這里關於轉速前景的指南,因為我所聽到的並告訴我哪裡錯了。我聽到的是,您預計的賬單增長將與今年下半年本季度同比增長類似。這顯然比 15% 到 17% 的轉速指導要慢一些。顯然,第一季度非常強勁,遠高於這一水平。

  • So I'm just trying to understand if the other lines in revenue are going to more than make up for that. i.e., net interest income. Maybe you could speak to that a little bit or some of the other fee lines that drive your outlook for the 15% to 17% for the full year rev guide?

    所以我只是想了解其他收入線是否足以彌補這一點。即淨利息收入。也許您可以談談這一點或其他一些費用線,這些費用線推動您對全年收入指南 15% 至 17% 的預期?

  • Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

    Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

  • So I think it's an important question, Betsy. But if you really just look at this quarter, the thing I would point out is you do have some unusual noise in the service fees and other revenue line when you look at our Slide 12 in the slide deck. Because in the prior year, we had a complicated litigation settlement that drove some unusual movement in that line.

    所以我認為這是一個重要的問題,貝特西。但如果你真的只看這個季度,我要指出的是,當你查看幻燈片中的幻燈片 12 時,服務費和其他收入線確實有一些不尋常的噪音。因為在前一年,我們達成了一項複雜的訴訟和解協議,導致該領域出現了一些不尋常的變化。

  • What we're really saying is that we are in a low growth economy, but we -- it is consistent with the objectives we set if you maintain the volume growth that we have, and then combine it with the kind of consistent high growth in net card fees that you've seen right through the pandemic grew 21% this quarter. If you combine it with the fact that you still have customers rebuilding balances a little bit on the net interest income side. And you take the noise out on the service fee and other revenue side, you then easily get to a number that is very consistent in the back half of the year with what we've guided for the full year.

    我們真正想說的是,我們正處於一個低增長的經濟體中,但如果你保持現有的銷量增長,然後將其與你在疫情期間看到的網卡費用的持續高增長結合起來,這與我們設定的目標是一致的,本季度你已經看到了21%的增長。如果你把它與你仍然有客戶在淨利息收入方面稍微重建餘額的事實結合起來。如果去掉服務費和其他收入方面的噪音,你就可以輕鬆得到一個與我們全年指導值非常一致的數字。

  • Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

    Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. And I think he's a great example of the model, right? I mean, it's a great example of the related stool. But we've got you got card fee growth is very, very strong. I mean, it's the third -- I think it's the third straight quarter we've had a 20% card fee plus growth. Yes, we're benefiting a little bit from net interest income.

    是的。我認為他是這個模型的一個很好的例子,對吧?我的意思是,這是相關凳子的一個很好的例子。但我們知道卡費增長非常非常強勁。我的意思是,這是第三個 - 我認為這是我們連續第三個季度獲得 20% 的卡費加增長。是的,我們從淨利息收入中受益匪淺。

  • As Jeff said, there's noise in the services fee and other revenue, and that will shift. But yes, we feel comfortable with billings around where we are today to make that revenue guidance because of the 3 tiers of the revenue that we have. So that's what gives us confidence.

    正如傑夫所說,服務費和其他收入中存在噪音,這種情況將會發生變化。但是,是的,我們對目前的賬單感到滿意,可以做出收入指導,因為我們擁有 3 個層次的收入。這就是給我們信心的原因。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Rick Shane of JPMorgan.

    下一個問題來自摩根大通的里克·謝恩。

  • Richard Barry Shane - Senior Equity Analyst

    Richard Barry Shane - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Jeff, I often say this in these circumstances, a little bit tongue in cheek that we're going to miss you more than you're going to miss us, but I think that's absolutely here. It's been a pleasure working with you over the years and Christophe. We're looking forward to getting to know you as well.

    傑夫,我經常在這種情況下說這句話,有點半開玩笑地說我們會比你更想念你,但我認為這絕對是在這裡。多年來與您和 Christophe 合作非常愉快。我們也期待著認識您。

  • I do, Betty really as a pull on the thread that I'm interested in pursuing as well, but would love to sort of think about this a little bit more. When we look at the deceleration of top line in the second quarter, if revenue stays on that trajectory for the second half of the year, it sort of puts you at the low end of your top line guidance. It sounds like there's a little bit of noise that gives you some confidence, but I'm curious, fundamentally, do you think we will see some acceleration in the back half to sort of offset any potential risk if you just look at the trend line.

    我確實如此,貝蒂確實是我也有興趣追求的線索的拉動者,但我想多思考一下這個問題。當我們看到第二季度營收減速時,如果下半年收入保持在這一軌跡上,那麼你的營收指引就會處於低端。聽起來好像有一些噪音給了你一些信心,但我很好奇,從根本上來說,如果你只看趨勢線,你認為我們會在後半段看到一些加速來抵消任何潛在的風險嗎?

  • Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

    Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

  • We still feel really confident that we'll be within the 15% to 17%. And there's really not a lot more to say other than that. So yes, you have a little -- as I said, you have a little bit of deceleration from a billings perspective. But it's a record quarter of billings, over $420 billion of billings. And so again, we feel very confident of the 15% to 17%, and we'll see where it winds up landing within that range. But the reason we give ranges.

    我們仍然非常有信心將這一比例控制在 15% 到 17% 之間。除此之外真的沒什麼可說的了。所以,是的,正如我所說,從比林斯的角度來看,你有一點減速。但這是創紀錄的季度營收,超過 4,200 億美元。同樣,我們對 15% 到 17% 非常有信心,我們將看看它最終會落在這個範圍內。但我們給出的原因是范圍。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Next coming from Bob Napoli of William Blair.

    接下來來自威廉·布萊爾的鮑勃·納波利。

  • Robert Paul Napoli - Partner and Co-Group Head of Financial Services & Technology

    Robert Paul Napoli - Partner and Co-Group Head of Financial Services & Technology

  • Thank you very much. And Jeff, thank you for your help, and good luck to you, Christophe, welcome. I look forward to meeting you. I would like to ask about your views on credit normalization, kind of a trend in credit normalization. What -- as you look at your portfolio, what we should expect as we look at the aspirations for 2024. So the -- I mean, the back half of '23 is pretty baked, but just as we think about that going into 2024 and onward.

    非常感謝。傑夫,謝謝你的幫助,祝你好運,克里斯托夫,歡迎。我期待著與您見面。我想問一下您對信用正常化這一信用正常化趨勢的看法。當你審視你的投資組合時,當我們審視 2024 年的願望時,我們應該期待什麼。所以,我的意思是,23 年後半段已經相當成熟,但正如我們考慮進入 2024 年及以後的情況一樣。

  • Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

    Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

  • Well, I think the most important point to make there, Bob, is that we have a portfolio today that is more premium and stronger than what we had in 2019 and Day 1 CECL. That is why we added the additional disclosure this quarter around the small percentage of our portfolio that is in the band where you do see challenges, and that's the FICO band below 660.

    鮑勃,我認為最重要的一點是,我們今天擁有的投資組合比 2019 年和 CECL 第一天的投資組合更優質、更強大。這就是為什麼我們在本季度針對我們投資組合中確實存在挑戰的一小部分(即低於 660 的 FICO 區間)進行了額外披露。

  • So we feel really good about where we are from a credit perspective in this environment. I think we feel really good about the fact that when you look sequentially, you actually saw delinquencies flat. There is complexity in the CECL calculation when you try to do comparisons across companies. I did make the observation that the way and with the timing of how we do ours, we actually incorporated a slightly worse economic outlook this quarter than we did last quarter, sitting here on July 20. I think most people would say things have perhaps gotten a bit more optimistic in recent days. But we'll have to see how that influences things.

    因此,從信用角度來看,我們對當前環境下的現狀感到非常滿意。我認為我們對以下事實感到非常滿意:當您按順序查看時,您實際上會看到拖欠率持平。當您嘗試跨公司進行比較時,CECL 計算會很複雜。我確實觀察到,按照我們的做法和時間安排,本季度的經濟前景實際上比 7 月 20 日坐在這裡的上季度稍差。我想大多數人會說,最近幾天情況可能變得更加樂觀了。但我們必須看看這會如何影響事情。

  • At core, though, we feel really good about the product choices, the acquisition choices and the risk management choices we've made, which leave us confident that we will be below this year on credit metrics, all of the places we were in 2019. And absent some dramatic change in the economy, I think we feel good about what that means for 2024.

    不過,從本質上講,我們對我們所做的產品選擇、收購選擇和風險管理選擇感到非常滿意,這讓我們有信心,我們今年的信貸指標將低於 2019 年的所有水平。如果經濟沒有發生重大變化,我認為我們對這對 2024 年意味著什麼感到滿意。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Craig Maurer of FT Partners.

    下一個問題來自 FT Partners 的 Craig Maurer。

  • Craig Jared Maurer - Co-Director of Research & MD

    Craig Jared Maurer - Co-Director of Research & MD

  • On, Jeff, for meeting you in the middle of a nice storm till now. I appreciate all the help over the years and Christophe looking forward to meeting you soon. So my question -- my 2 questions really are around: one, SME just wanted to dig in a little further there. If you can help me understand if there was a meaningful difference in growth between the total number and if you just looked at it on a same business activity level, and took out the new business adds.

    繼續,傑夫,到目前為止,在一場美麗的暴風雨中遇見了你。我感謝多年來所有的幫助,克里斯托夫期待很快見到您。所以我的問題——我的兩個問題確實圍繞著:第一,SME 只是想進一步深入研究。如果您能幫助我了解總數之間的增長是否存在有意義的差異,以及如果您只是在相同的業務活動水平上查看它並取出新業務增加的話。

  • And second, has there been any real difference in credit vintages? We've recently seen some data on consumer loans that have shown a real deterioration in recent vintages of loans. So I wanted to ask about that.

    其次,信貸年份是否存在真正的差異?我們最近看到一些有關消費貸款的數據,這些數據顯示最近幾年的貸款確實惡化了。所以我想問一下。

  • Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

    Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

  • So for the second question first, the answer is no. It's really not big, Jeff, do you want to....

    那麼首先對於第二個問題,答案是否定的。它真的不大,傑夫,你想嗎……

  • Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

    Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

  • Well, with the only color I'd remind you, over the course of the past year, Craig, we have talked about the fact that we have consistently made some adjustments from a risk management perspective. And I think that is part of why, as Steve says, don't see any change from [management] perspective.

    好吧,我想用唯一的顏色提醒你,克雷格,在過去的一年裡,我們已經討論過這樣一個事實:我們一直從風險管理的角度進行一些調整。正如史蒂夫所說,我認為這就是為什麼從[管理]角度看不到任何變化的部分原因。

  • Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

    Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. As far as line of sight into SME, I mean, the way to think about it is organic is probably flat. You obviously have businesses that go out of business. And so you have a little bit of sort of same stores that go away. But the acquisition is still relatively strong.

    是的。就中小企業的視線而言,我的意思是,有機地思考它的方式可能是平坦的。顯然,有些企業倒閉了。因此,有一些相同的商店消失了。但收購力度還是比較大的。

  • So think about organic as having a neutral impact, think about attrition because attrition has a negative impact, but no different than what we've seen over the last few years and then acquisition in there. I think the biggest difference is really organic. And what you saw through the pandemic is, you saw a small businesses continue to add and add and add. And you got to remember, small businesses use a card to run their entire business.

    因此,將有機視為具有中性影響,考慮消耗,因為消耗會產生負面影響,但與我們在過去幾年中看到的情況以及隨後的收購沒有什麼不同。我認為最大的區別確實是有機的。通過這次大流行,你看到的是,你看到小企業不斷增加、增加、增加。您必須記住,小型企業使用一張卡來運營其整個業務。

  • And so -- there was a lot of buying ahead from a goods and services perspective, from an inventory perspective. And so we're going to watch it really closely in terms of have they finally gotten to sort of full stock and what have you. And -- but I think that's the way to think about those 3 components: organic, basically flat and acquisition up and attrition pretty much stable.

    因此,從商品和服務的角度以及庫存的角度來看,有大量的提前購買。因此,我們將密切關注他們是否最終達到了庫存充足以及您擁有什麼。而且——但我認為這就是思考這三個組成部分的方式:有機的、基本持平的、收購增加和流失相當穩定。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Lisa Ellis of Moffett Nathanson.

    下一個問題來自 Moffett Nathanson 的 Lisa Ellis。

  • Lisa Ann Dejong Ellis - Partner & Senior Research Analyst

    Lisa Ann Dejong Ellis - Partner & Senior Research Analyst

  • You guys highlighted that it is now 6 quarters since you introduced the structural increase in your long-term plan to double-digit revenue growth and mid-teens EPS growth. A lot has happened in the last 6 quarters. We're kind of finally returning to normal after the pandemic. So can you just highlight when you look at the underlying business drivers required to sustain that model on an ongoing basis, what is sort of doing better than you expected? Maybe where do you need to make some adjustments, et cetera? Just kind of comment on how that strategy and your thoughts about that has evolved as you look forward now back into a more normalized economy.

    你們強調,自從你們在長期計劃中引入結構性增長以實現兩位數的收入增長和中雙位數的每股收益增長以來,已經過去了 6 個季度。過去 6 個季度發生了很多事情。疫情過後,我們終於恢復正常了。那麼,當您審視持續維持該模式所需的潛在業務驅動因素時,您能否強調一下,哪些方面做得比您預期的要好?也許您需要在哪些地方進行一些調整等等?當您現在期待回到更加正常化的經濟時,請評論一下該策略以及您對此的想法是如何演變的。

  • Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

    Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. Well, I think you got to go back to sort of strategic priorities we always talk about, which is focused on premium consumer. We're focused on small business, and we're focused on coverage. If I look at this, I would say that international has come back probably even a little quicker than we had thought within our 3-year horizon.

    是的。好吧,我認為你必須回到我們經常談論的戰略重點,即關注高端消費者。我們專注於小型企業,並且專注於覆蓋範圍。如果我看一下這一點,我會說國際化的回歸可能比我們在三年內想像的還要快一些。

  • I think Millennials are playing out even better than what we had thought, both from an acquisition perspective and a spending perspective. I think when you think about boomers, I think they've been slower to return, but it's just -- it becomes a smaller piece of our business over time. Corporate, I think that's an opportunity going forward from a growth perspective. And I think small business started out in the beginning -- in all business will wind up being sort of a tale of 3 cities over this, over this time horizon. I think it was very, really strong for us last year. I think it's a little bit more muted it's a little bit more muted.

    我認為,無論是從收購角度還是從支出角度來看,千禧一代的表現都比我們想像的要好。我認為當你想到嬰兒潮一代時,我認為他們的回歸速度較慢,但隨著時間的推移,它只是我們業務的一小部分。對於企業而言,我認為從增長的角度來看,這是一個前進的機會。我認為小企業是從一開始就開始的——在這個時間範圍內,所有的商業最終都會成為三個城市的故事。我認為去年對我們來說非常非常強大。我認為它更加靜音一點,它更加靜音一點。

  • And I think it will probably pick up. And the other thing that's been difference it's been -- when we started with this plan, it was done in a much slower -- it was done with -- we anticipated a more robust economy. So what really makes us feel good about this is that we've accomplished this in a slow growth environment. We've stayed true to who we are from a credit quality perspective. And the last thing that I'll add is, I think we've made some really great coverage gains over this period of time as we continue to march to our goals, especially international, where I think the team has done a really good job from a coverage perspective.

    我認為它可能會回升。另一件不同的事情是——當我們開始實施這個計劃時,它的完成速度要慢得多——它是在——我們預期經濟會更加強勁的情況下完成的。因此,真正讓我們感到高興的是,我們是在緩慢增長的環境中實現這一目標的。從信用質量的角度來看,我們始終忠於自己。我要補充的最後一件事是,我認為在這段時間裡,隨著我們繼續向我們的目標邁進,我們已經取得了一些非常好的覆蓋率收益,尤其是國際目標,我認為團隊從覆蓋率的角度來看做得非常好。

  • And when you think about our longer-term partnerships here, we've really cemented in our key partnerships over the long-term here. Obviously, with Delta and with -- we still have Marriott and BA, which go out still a number of years. So we feel good about it. And the interesting part about this is, did it play out exactly as we thought it was going to play out? No. But the flexibility in the model has enabled it to go where we wanted it to go. And I think we really got off to a tremendous start in 2022 with tremendous revenue growth. I mean when we did this 3-year plan, we did not project 25% revenue growth last year.

    當你想到我們在這裡的長期合作夥伴關係時,我們確實已經鞏固了我們在這裡的長期關鍵合作夥伴關係。顯然,與達美航空和——我們仍然有萬豪酒店和英航,它們仍然存在很多年。所以我們對此感覺良好。有趣的是,事情的發展是否完全按照我們的預期進行?不會。但是模型的靈活性使其能夠實現我們想要的目標。我認為我們在 2022 年確實取得了一個巨大的開端,收入大幅增長。我的意思是,當我們制定這個 3 年計劃時,我們去年並沒有預計 25% 的收入增長。

  • We were at 17% to 19%, I believe, when we started the year, then we took it up to 19% to 21%, and then you got 25%. So if you think about sort of where we thought we were going to be we're ahead of where we thought we were going to be longer-term, and the 15% to 17% guidance that we provided at the beginning of this year was based off original guidance that was 17% to 19%. So we're growing over bigger numbers. So and that's why I feel really good about it. And so we'll continue. And I think the most important thing for us is to stay focused and to focus on our priorities. And I think the team has done a really good job of that. And you have to remember, and you guys all know this -- this is a very good industry to be in. And when you play in this industry the way we play in it, across 3 different dimensions of card fees of billings and of net interest income, it makes our model completely differentiated from our competitors.

    我相信,年初時我們的比例是 17% 到 19%,然後我們把它提高到 19% 到 21%,然後是 25%。因此,如果你考慮一下我們認為我們將達到的目標,我們已經領先於我們認為的長期目標,而我們在今年年初提供的 15% 至 17% 的指導是基於 17% 至 19% 的原始指導。所以我們的數量正在不斷增長。這就是為什麼我對此感覺非常好。所以我們會繼續。我認為對我們來說最重要的是保持專注並專注於我們的優先事項。我認為團隊在這方面做得非常好。你們必須記住,你們都知道這一點——這是一個非常好的行業。當您以我們的方式參與這個行業時,跨越信用卡費用、賬單和淨利息收入三個不同的維度,這使得我們的模式與我們的競爭對手完全不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Arren Cyganovich of Citi.

    下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Arren Cyganovich。

  • Arren Saul Cyganovich - VP & Senior Analyst

    Arren Saul Cyganovich - VP & Senior Analyst

  • Your marketing expense pulled back a bit this quarter. You still have high customer acquisitions. How are you thinking about marketing expenses going into the second half of the year? And kind of quarter-to-date update in terms of your growth rates to [billed] business.

    本季度您的營銷費用有所下降。您的客戶獲取量仍然很高。您如何看待下半年的營銷費用?以及[計費]業務增長率方面的季度至今更新。

  • Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

    Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

  • We're not going to do a quarter-to-date update on [billed] business. We're kind of 20 days in. So there's no real change. But in terms of marketing, the only thing that's important to know is that we said we'd spend about $5.5 billion on marketing. That's our plan to continue to do that.

    我們不會對[計費]業務進行季度至今的更新。我們已經 20 天了。所以沒有真正的變化。但在營銷方面,唯一重要的是我們說過我們將在營銷上花費約 55 億美元。這是我們繼續這樣做的計劃。

  • How it winds up sort of moving from quarter-to-quarter, I think we're probably $100 million from last year or something like this in this particular quarter. But that all depends on the programs we're running and the timing and everything else. And so a week here, a week there, can make all the difference in the world sometimes when you think about when you think about spending $1.5 billion, $1.4 billion in a quarter, it's like $100 million sort of a week.

    它最終如何從一個季度到另一個季度發生變化,我認為我們可能比去年增加 1 億美元,或者在這個特定的季度達到類似的水平。但這一切都取決於我們正在運行的程序、時間安排以及其他一切。因此,這裡一周,那裡一周,有時可以讓世界發生很大的變化,當你想到一個季度花費 15 億美元、14 億美元時,就相當於每週花費 1 億美元。

  • So the bottom line is we are committed to go after all the great opportunities that are out there, and we believe that we'll wind up spending about $5.5 billion from a marketing perspective. And just to remind everybody that the marketing spend for us is predominantly customer acquisition, right? And affiliate fees and incentives and things like that, it's not sort of TV and print and it's kind of advertising. That's what that marketing spend is. And that's why it can vary a little bit from quarter-to-quarter.

    因此,最重要的是,我們致力於抓住現有的所有絕佳機會,並且我們相信,從營銷角度來看,我們最終將花費約 55 億美元。只是想提醒大家,我們的營銷支出主要用於獲取客戶,對嗎?還有附屬費用和獎勵以及類似的東西,這不是電視和印刷品,而是廣告。這就是營銷支出。這就是為什麼它每個季度可能會略有不同。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Dominick Gabriele of Oppenheimer & Co.

    下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer & Co. 的 Dominick Gabriele。

  • Dominick Joseph Gabriele - Director & Senior Analyst

    Dominick Joseph Gabriele - Director & Senior Analyst

  • So I was just wondering, when you think about your aspirational revenue target, has the thought process on the contribution to growth from net card fees to total revenue changed over time where it's potentially providing more of a boost towards that a 10% revenue goal versus the past versus discount revenue.

    因此,我只是想知道,當您考慮理想的收入目標時,網卡費用對總收入增長的貢獻的思考過程是否會隨著時間的推移而發生變化,與過去相比,與折扣收入相比,它可能會為實現 10% 的收入目標提供更多推動力。

  • Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

    Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

  • No, look, I think one of the big differentiators for us is that card fee. I mean you think about that as sort of subscription SaaS kind of revenue, and we're really pleased with that. But no, I mean, it's in the ballpark of what we what we thought it was going to be as we put together our aspirations, right? I mean -- and so when you look at this the 20% 3 quarters in a row is a big number. And another thing I'd point out during the pandemic, it was growing in double digits. And so -- which is -- it's a big contributor, and it's obviously a high -- it has higher growth than discount revenue would, but it's pretty much in line with where we thought we were going to be.

    不,我認為對我們來說最大的區別之一是卡費。我的意思是,你可以將其視為訂閱 SaaS 類型的收入,我們對此非常滿意。但不,我的意思是,當我們把我們的願望放在一起時,它就在我們所認為的範圍內,對吧?我的意思是——所以當你看這個時,連續 3 個季度 20% 是一個很大的數字。我在大流行期間要指出的另一件事是,它以兩位數的速度增長。因此,它是一個很大的貢獻者,而且顯然很高,它的增長速度比折扣收入更高,但這與我們認為的目標非常一致。

  • Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

    Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

  • I just can't resist that and Dominick for something that grew in double digits all through the pandemic has had really high growth rates last year. It is going to continue to grow to be an ever bigger part of our revenue pie. And I think that is a key strength of the company. It really ties customers and engages customers with us and the product and is a critical part of the overall model.

    我無法抗拒這一點,而多米尼克在整個大流行期間以兩位數增長的東西去年的增長率非常高。它將繼續增長,成為我們收入中越來越大的一部分。我認為這是公司的關鍵優勢。它真正將客戶聯繫起來,讓客戶與我們和產品互動,是整個模型的關鍵部分。

  • Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

    Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. And just one other thing, because Jeff, just sort of remind me, as he said that when we talked about sort of this -- double-digit growth during the pandemic. It really speaks to how we think about our customers over the long-term because if we had not invested in our customers during the pandemic, you would not have seen that double-digit growth during the pandemic or coming out of the pandemic.

    是的。還有另一件事,因為傑夫,只是提醒我,正如他所說,當我們談論這一點時——大流行期間的兩位數增長。這確實說明了我們對客戶的長期看法,因為如果我們在疫情期間沒有對客戶進行投資,你就不會在疫情期間或疫情結束後看到兩位數的增長。

  • It was really important to embrace those customers. It would have been easier to drop more money to the bottom line rather than to put more money into our existing customers, but that's not how we run the company. And we were thinking much more from a long-term perspective. And by really investing in the value proposition because, as you all remember, those value propositions from a travel perspective were challenged best. And to put other things in there, it really helped us cement those relationships, which kept those fees going, but more important, drop just normal attrition that we had because we improved our retention rates over the course of the pandemic.

    擁抱這些客戶非常重要。投入更多資金來實現利潤比向現有客戶投入更多資金要容易得多,但這不是我們經營公司的方式。我們從長遠角度思考更多。通過真正投資於價值主張,因為正如你們都記得的那樣,從旅行角度來看的這些價值主張受到了最大的挑戰。把其他東西放在那裡,它確實幫助我們鞏固了這些關係,從而使這些費用得以維持,但更重要的是,減少了我們的正常流失,因為我們在大流行期間提高了保留率。

  • So I think it speaks to the membership model because this card fee is a decision that our members make to join the franchise. And that's really important because that means they see value in the product. They see ongoing value in the product. And it's our job, and we'll continue to do this to continue to insert more values into the product, and that's what keeps this thing going. And that's why from a strategic perspective, the consistent refreshing of our products is really, really important to our strategy.

    所以我認為這與會員模式有關,因為卡費是我們的會員加入特許經營權時做出的決定。這非常重要,因為這意味著他們看到了產品的價值。他們看到了產品的持續價值。這是我們的工作,我們將繼續這樣做,繼續為產品注入更多價值,這就是讓這件事繼續下去的原因。這就是為什麼從戰略角度來看,我們產品的持續更新對我們的戰略非常非常重要。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • The next question is coming from Don Fandetti of Wells Fargo.

    下一個問題來自富國銀行的唐·范德蒂。

  • Donald James Fandetti - Senior Analyst

    Donald James Fandetti - Senior Analyst

  • Jeff, I want to clarify on the Basel comments. Are you saying that you won't have to run at a higher CET1 than your target of 10% to 11%. I know there was some concern around fees being looked at differently. I wonder if you can clarify that?

    傑夫,我想澄清一下巴塞爾的評論。您是說您不必以高於目標 10% 到 11% 的 CET1 進行跑步嗎?我知道有人擔心費用會被以不同的方式看待。你能否澄清一下?

  • Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

    Jeffrey C. Campbell - Vice Chairman & CFO

  • Don, you were cutting out a little bit, but I think you're asking about the CET1 target and Basel III. And the point I was trying to make is you need to remember a few things here. Our 10% to 11% CET1 target is actually more driven by our own view and rating agency views versus the regulatory constraints . Because our regulatory minimum has long been only 7%. That's the first point.

    唐,你刪掉了一點,但我認為你問的是 CET1 目標和巴塞爾協議 III。我想說的一點是你需要記住一些事情。我們 10% 至 11% CET1 的目標實際上更多地是由我們自己的觀點和評級機構的觀點而不是監管限制驅動的。因為我們的監管下限長期以來只有7%。這是第一點。

  • The second point to remember is we have a return on equity of over 30%. So our ability to quickly replenish capital whenever we need to without, frankly, taking more than a brief pause from share repurchase is very high. Third, I know there's been a lot of attention paid to different iterations of Basel, the Basel III end game, particularly around ops risk. I guess I'd also just remind people, ops risk is only one component. There are other components that probably have some positive and probably have some negative impacts on us. So I guess my -- but we'll have to see whenever the final rules come out. We've been waiting for them for actually like much of my tenure here.

    要記住的第二點是我們的股本回報率超過 30%。因此,坦率地說,我們在需要時快速補充資本的能力非常高,而無需短暫暫停股票回購。第三,我知道巴塞爾協議的不同版本、巴塞爾協議 III 的最終版本受到了很多關注,特別是圍繞運營風險。我想我還要提醒人們,運營風險只是其中一個組成部分。還有其他一些因素可能對我們產生一些積極的影響,也可能產生一些消極的影響。所以我想我的——但我們必須看看最終規則何時出台。實際上就像我在這裡任職的大部分時間一樣,我們一直在等待他們。

  • But they may come out hopefully later this month. And the devil is in the details here. But I think my overarching message is we don't see it as a material event for this company. Because it's certainly a possible outcome that there's no change in our target and even a modest change in our target with a 30%-plus ROE is not going to have any material impact on share repurchase or the trajectory of our EPS growth that we've laid out in the growth plan.

    但他們可能會在本月晚些時候問世。問題在於細節。但我認為我的首要信息是我們不認​​為這對這家公司來說是一個重大事件。因為很可能出現的結果是,我們的目標沒有變化,即使我們的目標略有變化(ROE 超過 30%),也不會對股票回購或我們在增長計劃中製定的 EPS 增長軌跡產生任何實質性影響。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our final question is coming from Mihir Bhatia of Bank of America.

    我們的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

  • Mihir Bhatia - VP in Equity Research & Research Analyst

    Mihir Bhatia - VP in Equity Research & Research Analyst

  • Congratulations, Jeff. Thank you for all your help, and welcome, Christophe. I look forward to getting to know and working with you. I wanted to switch gears a little bit and talk about the process revenues of the network partnerships, I think the old [GNS] business. It seems like there's been a little bit of momentum in terms of signing some new partners recently.

    恭喜,傑夫。感謝您的幫助,並歡迎您,克里斯托夫。我期待著認識您並與您合作。我想稍微轉換一下話題,談談網絡合作夥伴關係的流程收入,我認為是舊的 [GNS] 業務。最近在簽署一些新合作夥伴方面似乎有一些勢頭。

  • I believe this quarter, we actually saw the launch of the Square Card and processed volumes grew faster than billed business this quarter. So just wondering if you could talk about that business a little bit more. Has there been something -- has something changed internally? Are you focused more on that segment? What's driving that momentum?

    我相信本季度,我們實際上看到了 Square Card 的推出,並且本季度處理量的增長速度快於計費業務。所以只是想知道你是否可以多談談這件事。內部有什麼變化嗎?您是否更關注該細分市場?是什麼推動了這種勢頭?

  • Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

    Stephen Joseph Squeri - Chairman & CEO

  • Yes. No, I don't think anything has changed. I think these are -- it's always been something that we have been focused on. But to switch or to get a partner to come on to the network is a big deal. And there are technical hurdles to wind up crossing. And we're -- the GNS team is out there on a consistent basis looking for new partners. And when you think about our overall model, we're really operating around 29 proprietary countries.

    是的。不,我不認為任何事情都改變了。我認為這些一直是我們一直關注的事情。但更換或讓合作夥伴加入網絡是一件大事。最終還存在需要跨越的技術障礙。我們 - GNS 團隊一直在尋找新的合作夥伴。當你考慮我們的整體模式時,你會發現我們實際上在 29 個專有國家/地區開展業務。

  • All the rest of the markets that we operate around the world are GNS markets, either just from a card acceptance perspective or from a both a card acceptance and a card issuing perspective. And there's been a lot of work going on with GNS over the years to get -- to increasingly get more and more coverage. And so when you look at our improvements in coverage, so much of that's been driven by our GNS partners. And just to remind you that everything that we're doing in China really comes under the heading of GNS because we're in there just as a network. We don't acquire merchants. We don't issue cards, we have a joint venture, and that's a that's a GNS relationship. And look, our launch of our card, I mean, with Square, that's been in the pipeline for a long time.

    我們在全球運營的所有其他市場都是 GNS 市場,無論是從卡受理角度還是從卡受理和發卡角度來看。多年來,GNS 進行了大量的工作,以獲得越來越多的覆蓋範圍。因此,當您看到我們在覆蓋範圍方面的改進時,您會發現其中很大一部分是由我們的 GNS 合作夥伴推動的。只是想提醒您,我們在中國所做的一切實際上都屬於 GNS 的範疇,因為我們在那裡只是作為一個網絡。我們不收購商人。我們不發卡,我們有一家合資企業,這就是 GNS 關係。看,我們推出的卡,我的意思是,與 Square 一起推出,這已經醞釀了很長時間了。

  • But it's -- if you aren't in cards or if you're issuing Visa MasterCard, it's a little bit different to [hook up] to our systems to get priority within your own system and so forth. And so we've been out there on a consistent basis, working to get partners. I think the Square One has a little bit more -- I guess a little bit more headlines because it's a U.S. partnership, but the team is out there on a real consistent basis all across Asia and South America and Africa and so forth, really thinking through how we continue to get more coverage and how we get more cards issued. So while you may see it a little bit more, I can tell you, the team has been working really hard at this for a lot of years.

    但如果您沒有使用信用卡或發行 Visa MasterCard,那麼[連接]我們的系統以獲得您自己系統中的優先權等等會有些不同。因此,我們一直在努力尋找合作夥伴。我認為 Square One 有更多的內容——我想有更多的頭條新聞,因為它是美國的合作夥伴,但該團隊在亞洲、南美洲和非洲等地都在真正一致的基礎上,真正思考我們如何繼續獲得更多的報導以及如何發行更多的卡片。因此,雖然您可能會看到更多一點,但我可以告訴您,團隊多年來一直在這方面努力工作。

  • Kerri S. Bernstein - Head of IR

    Kerri S. Bernstein - Head of IR

  • Great. And with that, we will bring the call to an end. Thank you again for joining today's call and for your continued interest in American Express. The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions. Donna, back to you.

    偉大的。至此,我們將結束通話。再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議並感謝您對美國運通的持續關注。 IR 團隊將隨時解答任何後續問題。唐娜,回到你身邊。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast replay will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.americanexpress.com shortly after the call. You can also access a digital replay of the call at (877) 660-6853 or 201-6127415 access code 1373-9237 after 1:00 p.m. Eastern on July 21 through July 28. That will conclude our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

    謝謝。女士們、先生們,電話會議後不久,我們的投資者關係網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上將提供網絡廣播重播。您還可以在下午 1:00 後撥打 (877) 660-6853 或 201-6127415 訪問代碼 1373-9237 觀看通話的數字重播。東部時間 7 月 21 日至 7 月 28 日。我們今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。