美國運通 (AXP) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Express Q4 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Kerri Bernstein. Thank you. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎來到美國運通 2022 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音中。我現在想把會議轉交給我們的主持人、投資者關係主管 Kerri Bernstein 女士。謝謝你。請繼續。

Thank you, Donna, and thank you all for joining today's call. As a reminder, before we begin, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance. These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC.

謝謝你，唐娜，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。提醒一下，在我們開始之前，今天的討論包含有關公司未來業務和財務業績的前瞻性陳述。這些是基於管理層當前的預期，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。可能導致實際結果與這些陳述存在重大差異的因素包含在今天的演示幻燈片和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中。

The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures. The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discussed. All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com.

今天的討論還包含非 GAAP 財務指標。可比較的 GAAP 財務指標包含在本季度的收益材料以及我們討論的前期收益材料中。所有這些都發佈在我們的網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上。

We'll begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results and then Jeff Campbell, Chief Financial Officer, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance.

今天我們將從董事長兼首席執行官 Steve Squeri 開始，他將首先介紹公司的進展和結果，然後首席財務官 Jeff Campbell 將對我們的財務業績進行更詳細的審查。

After that, we'll move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Jack. With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

之後，我們將進入與史蒂夫和傑克的問答環節。有了這個，讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Kerri. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. It's great to be with you to talk about our 2022 results and our outlook for 2023. As I go through our results, I'll tell you why they strengthen my confidence in our plan to generate strong growth over the long term. A year ago, we introduced our growth plan, which provided a road map for delivering annual growth rates for revenue and earnings per share at levels that are higher than the strong growth rates we were delivering before the pandemic.

謝謝，克里。大家，早安。感謝您今天加入我們。很高興與您討論我們 2022 年的業績和我們對 2023 年的展望。在我回顧我們的業績時，我會告訴您為什麼它們增強了我對我們實現長期強勁增長的計劃的信心。一年前，我們推出了增長計劃，該計劃提供了實現收入和每股收益年增長率高於疫情前強勁增長率的路線圖。

Our results over the last 4 quarters demonstrate that our strategy is clearly working. We exceeded the full year guidance we laid out in our growth plan for both revenues and EPS, and we did so against the mixed economic environment. Revenues, which reached all highs for both the quarter and the year were up 25% for the full year, exceeding the 18% to 20% guidance we started the year with. An earnings per share of $9.85 was well above our guidance of $9.25 to $9.65. The momentum we saw through the year in Card Member spending, engagement and retention continued in the fourth quarter.

我們過去 4 個季度的業績表明我們的戰略顯然正在奏效。我們超出了我們在收入和每股收益增長計劃中製定的全年指導，而且我們是在混合經濟環境下這樣做的。收入在本季度和全年都達到了所有高點，全年增長了 25%，超過了我們年初設定的 18% 至 20% 的指導值。每股收益 9.85 美元遠高於我們 9.25 美元至 9.65 美元的指引。我們在持卡會員支出、參與度和保留率方面全年看到的勢頭在第四季度得以延續。

Fourth quarter billed business reached a record quarterly high of $357 billion and was up 25% for the full year demonstrating our continued ability to acquire, engage and retain high spending premium card members. Customer retention and satisfaction remained very strong. In addition to strong internal metrics, we were recognized once again by our customers for providing industry best products and services, ranking #1 in customer satisfaction in both the 2022 J.D. Power U.S. Consumer Credit Card Study and the U.S. Small Business Card Study.

第四季度計費業務達到 3,570 億美元的季度新高，全年增長 25%，這表明我們繼續有能力獲得、吸引和留住高消費高級卡會員。客戶保留率和滿意度仍然非常高。除了強大的內部指標外，我們還因提供行業最佳產品和服務而再次獲得客戶認可，在 2022 年 J.D. Power 美國消費者信用卡研究和美國小企業信用卡研究中均排名第一。

The investments we've made in our value propositions continue to attract large numbers of new premium customers. We acquired 3 million new card members in the fourth quarter, even as we increased our already high credit thresholds through the year. For the full year, new card acquisitions reached a record level, growing to 12.5 million and nearly 70% of our new accounts acquired are on our fee-based products.

我們在我們的價值主張中所做的投資繼續吸引大量新的優質客戶。我們在第四季度新增了 300 萬名持卡會員，儘管我們全年提高了本已很高的信用門檻。全年，新卡收購達到創紀錄的水平，增長到 1250 萬張，我們收購的新賬戶中近 70% 來自我們的收費產品。

Millennial and Gen Z customers continue to be the largest drivers of our growth, representing over 60% of proprietary consumer card acquisitions in the quarter and for the full year. Credit metrics remained strong, supported by the premium nature of our customer base, our exceptional risk management capabilities and the thoughtful risk actions we've taken for the year.

千禧一代和 Z 世代客戶仍然是我們增長的最大推動力，佔本季度和全年專有消費卡收購量的 60% 以上。在我們客戶群的優質性質、我們卓越的風險管理能力以及我們今年採取的深思熟慮的風險行動的支持下，信用指標仍然強勁。

Looking ahead to 2023 and beyond, let me tell you why these results increase my confidence that we're positioned to deliver on our growth plan aspirations. First, we're in a great business. We operate in the most attractive segments and geographies of the fast-growing payment space. As highlighted by our leadership positions with premium consumers, including Millennials and Gen Zers, small- and medium-sized businesses, as well as serving the largest corporations in the world. We bring to this space a number of advantages that are very difficult for our competitors to replicate.

展望 2023 年及以後，讓我告訴您為什麼這些結果增加了我對我們有能力實現增長計劃願望的信心。首先，我們的業務很棒。我們在快速增長的支付領域中最具吸引力的細分市場和地區開展業務。正如我們在高端消費者（包括千禧一代和 Z 世代）、中小型企業以及為世界上最大的公司提供服務方面的領導地位所強調的那樣。我們為這個領域帶來了許多競爭對手難以復制的優勢。

These include our brand, our unique membership model, a premium global customer base and an integrated payments model. Forming the foundation of these advantages is our talented, dedicated colleagues who deliver unparalleled service to our customers. Put together, the marketplace opportunities we see and the competitive advantages we can leverage create a long runway for growth.

其中包括我們的品牌、獨特的會員模式、優質的全球客戶群和綜合支付模式。這些優勢的基礎是我們才華橫溢、敬業的同事，他們為我們的客戶提供無與倫比的服務。總而言之，我們看到的市場機會和我們可以利用的競爭優勢為增長創造了一條漫長的跑道。

We intend to capture these opportunities and build on our momentum by continuing to invest at high levels in several key areas, continuously innovating our consumer and SME products, refining our powerful marketing and risk management engines and capturing our fair share of lending. Growing merchant acceptance with a particular focus outside the U.S. and expanding partnerships to drive customer value across the enterprise, continuing to introduce new digital capabilities that deliver seamless, intuitive customer experiences in their channels of choice, and expanding into adjacencies that reinforce our core, such as new lifestyle and financial services for consumers and SMEs, which adds more value to our membership model.

我們打算通過繼續在幾個關鍵領域進行高水平投資、不斷創新我們的消費者和中小企業產品、改進我們強大的營銷和風險管理引擎以及獲得我們公平的貸款份額來抓住這些機會並鞏固我們的發展勢頭。提高商家的接受度，特別關注美國以外的地區，並擴大合作夥伴關係以推動整個企業的客戶價值，繼續引入新的數字功能，在他們選擇的渠道中提供無縫、直觀的客戶體驗，並擴展到加強我們核心的相鄰領域，例如作為面向消費者和中小企業的新生活方式和金融服務，這為我們的會員模式增加了更多價值。

All this investment happens while continually focused on gaining efficiencies in our marketing and operating expenses. As we've demonstrated consistently over the past 2 years, executing this investment strategy builds scale, which fuels a virtuous cycle of growth, that starts with a high spending, highly engaged premium customer base.

所有這些投資都是在持續專注於提高我們的營銷和運營支出效率的同時進行的。正如我們在過去 2 年中一貫證明的那樣，執行這一投資戰略可以擴大規模，從而推動良性增長循環，這始於高支出、高度參與的優質客戶群。

These premium customers attract a growing network of merchants and partners who add more value to our membership model, which in turn enables us to attract more premium customers who attract more merchants and partners, which creates more scale. This scale enables us to generate more investment and operating efficiencies in our membership model making it more difficult for our competitors to catch up.

這些優質客戶吸引了越來越多的商家和合作夥伴網絡，他們為我們的會員模式增加了更多價值，這反過來又使我們能夠吸引更多優質客戶，這些優質客戶吸引了更多商家和合作夥伴，從而創造了更大的規模。這種規模使我們能夠在我們的會員模式中產生更多的投資和運營效率，使我們的競爭對手更難趕上。

So what does this mean for 2023? Our plan for this year is built on continuing our investment strategy in the areas I mentioned, while factoring in the blue-chip economic consensus of slowing macroeconomic growth. And as always, we have plans in place to pivot should the economic environment change dramatically.

那麼這對 2023 年意味著什麼呢？我們今年的計劃是建立在繼續我們在我提到的領域的投資戰略的基礎上的，同時考慮到宏觀經濟增長放緩的藍籌經濟共識。與往常一樣，我們制定了在經濟環境發生巨大變化時進行調整的計劃。

This translates into 2023 guidance consistent with what we originally laid out in our growth plan last year. Specifically, we expect revenue growth of 15% to 17%, which is higher than our long-term growth plan aspirations and EPS of $11 to $11.40. In addition, we plan to increase our quarterly dividend on common shares outstanding to $0.60 a share, up from $0.52 beginning with the first quarter 2023 dividend declaration.

這轉化為 2023 年指導，與我們去年在增長計劃中最初制定的一致。具體而言，我們預計收入增長 15% 至 17%，高於我們的長期增長計劃預期和每股收益 11 至 11.40 美元。此外，我們計劃將已發行普通股的季度股息從 2023 年第一季度股息申報開始的 0.52 美元增加到每股 0.60 美元。

To sum up, our 2022 performance shows that our strategy is working. And based on our performance to date and what we see for 2023, I'm even more confident in our ability to achieve our aspirations for double-digit annual revenue growth and mid-teens EPS growth in 2024 and beyond.

總而言之，我們 2022 年的業績表明我們的戰略正在奏效。根據我們迄今為止的表現以及我們對 2023 年的展望，我更加相信我們有能力在 2024 年及以後實現兩位數的年收入增長和 15% 左右的每股收益增長。

I'll now turn it over to Jeff to provide more detail about our performance. As always, we'll have a Q&A session after Jeff's remarks.

我現在將其轉交給 Jeff，以提供有關我們性能的更多詳細信息。與往常一樣，我們將在 Jeff 發言後進行問答環節。

Well, thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. It's good to be here to talk about our '22 results, which reflects steady progress against our multiyear growth plan that we announced last January and also to talk about what our 2022 results mean for 2023. I'll also spend some of our time this morning focusing on our full year trends since it is year-end, and since looking at our business on an annual basis is more in sync with how we actually run the company.

好吧，謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早上好。很高興能在這裡談論我們的 22 年業績，這反映了我們去年 1 月宣布的多年增長計劃取得的穩步進展，並討論我們 2022 年的業績對 2023 年的意義。我也會花一些時間在這個早上專注於我們的全年趨勢，因為它是年底，並且因為每年查看我們的業務與我們實際運營公司的方式更加同步。

Starting with our summary of financials on Slide 2. Full year revenues reached an all-time high of $52.9 billion, up 27% on an FX-adjusted basis. Notably, our fourth quarter revenues of $14.1 billion also reached a record high for the third straight quarter and grew 19% on an FX-adjusted basis. This revenue momentum drove reported full year net income of $7.5 billion and earnings per share of $9.85.

從我們在幻燈片 2 上的財務摘要開始。全年收入達到 529 億美元的歷史新高，經外匯調整後增長 27%。值得注意的是，我們第四季度 141 億美元的收入也連續第三個季度創下歷史新高，經外匯調整後增長 19%。這一收入勢頭推動報告的全年淨收入達到 75 億美元，每股收益達到 9.85 美元。

For the quarter, we reported net income of $1.6 billion and earnings per share of $2.07, which did include a $234 million impact from our net losses in our Amex Ventures strategic investment portfolio. As I've said throughout the year, year-over-year comparisons of net income have been challenging due to the sizable credit reserve releases we had in 2021.

本季度，我們報告的淨收入為 16 億美元，每股收益為 2.07 美元，其中包括 Amex Ventures 戰略投資組合的淨虧損帶來的 2.34 億美元影響。正如我全年所說的那樣，由於我們在 2021 年釋放了大量信貸儲備，淨收入的同比比較一直具有挑戰性。

Because of these prior year reserve releases, we have also included pretax pre-provision income as a supplemental disclosure again this quarter. On this basis, pretax, pre-provision income was $11.8 billion for the full year and $2.9 billion in the fourth quarter, up 27% and 23%, respectively, versus the prior year, reflecting the growth momentum in our underlying earnings.

由於這些前一年的準備金釋放，我們還在本季度再次將稅前撥備前收入作為補充披露。在此基礎上，全年稅前撥備前收入為 118 億美元，第四季度為 29 億美元，分別比上年增長 27% 和 23%，反映了我們基礎收益的增長勢頭。

So now let's get into a more detailed look at our results, beginning with volumes, starting on Slide 3. We saw good quarter-over-quarter growth in volumes. I would note that we reached record levels of spending on our network in both the fourth quarter and full year 2022. Total network volumes and billed business were up 16% and 15% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and 24% and 25% for the full year, all on an FX-adjusted basis.

因此，現在讓我們更詳細地了解我們的結果，從數量開始，從幻燈片 3 開始。我們看到數量環比增長良好。我要指出的是，我們在第四季度和 2022 年全年都達到了創紀錄的網絡支出水平。第四季度網絡總量和收費業務同比增長 16% 和 15%，分別增長 24% 和 25%全年的 %，均基於外匯調整後的基礎上。

Now of course, growth rates for quarters earlier in the year included more of a recovery on the lower levels of volumes in 2021. And we are now to the point where we have lapped the majority of this recovery. We are pleased with this growth and the fact that it is being driven across customer types and geographies.

當然，現在，今年早些時候幾個季度的增長率更多地包括了 2021 年較低水平的複蘇。我們現在已經到了這一複甦的大部分時間。我們對這種增長以及它正在跨客戶類型和地域推動這一事實感到高興。

On Slides 4 through 7, we've given you a variety of views across our U.S. Consumer Services, Commercial Services and International Card Services segments and the various customer types within each. There's a few key points I suggest you take away from these various perspectives.

在幻燈片 4 到 7 中，我們為您提供了我們的美國消費者服務、商業服務和國際卡服務部門以及每個部門的各種客戶類型的各種視圖。我建議您從這些不同的觀點中剔除一些關鍵點。

Starting with our largest segment, U.S. consumer billings grew 15% in the fourth quarter, reflecting the continued strength in spending trends from our premium U.S. consumers. Our focus on attracting, engaging and retaining younger cohorts of card members through our value propositions, drove the 30% growth in spending from our Millennial and Gen Z customers on Slide 5, and who you can now see make up 30% of spend within the segment.

從我們最大的細分市場開始，第四季度美國消費者賬單增長了 15%，反映出我們的高端美國消費者的消費趨勢持續強勁。我們專注於通過我們的價值主張吸引、吸引和留住年輕的持卡會員群體，推動我們的千禧一代和 Z 世代客戶在幻燈片 5 上的支出增長了 30%，您現在可以看到他們佔了 30% 的支出部分。

Turning to Commercial Services. You see that spending from our U.S. small and medium-sized enterprise customers represents the majority of our billings in the segment, supported by our strategic focus on expanding our range of products to help our SME clients run their businesses.

轉向商業服務。您會看到來自我們美國中小企業客戶的支出占我們該細分市場的大部分賬單，這得益於我們擴大產品範圍以幫助我們的中小企業客戶開展業務的戰略重點。

We saw another quarter of solid growth in U.S. SME, though you can see that it was the slowest growing customer type this quarter, up 8% year-over-year. As you heard Steve talk about a bit last month at an investor conference, our SMEs have recently started to slow down spending in service categories such as digital advertising, so we continue to monitor spending trends.

我們看到美國中小企業又一個季度實現了穩健增長，儘管你可以看到它是本季度增長最慢的客戶類型，同比增長 8%。正如你在上個月的一次投資者會議上聽到史蒂夫所說的那樣，我們的中小企業最近開始放慢數字廣告等服務類別的支出，因此我們繼續監測支出趨勢。

Moving to our U.S. Large and Global Corporate customers, the one small customer type that has not come back to pre-pandemic spend levels, they did continue, though their steady recovery this quarter with overall billings now 11% below pre-pandemic levels. And lastly, you see our highest growth in International Card Services, as this segment is now in a steep recovery mode given it started its pandemic recovery later than other segments.

轉向我們的美國大型和全球企業客戶，這是一種尚未恢復到大流行前支出水平的小客戶類型，他們確實繼續了，儘管他們在本季度穩步復甦，目前整體賬單比大流行前水平低 11%。最後，您會看到我們在國際卡服務方面的增長最快，因為該細分市場現在處於急劇復甦模式，因為它比其他細分市場開始大流行複蘇更晚。

Spending from International Consumer and International SME and Large Corporate customers grew 23% and 32% year-over-year, respectively, in Q4. Across all customer types, T&E spending momentum remained particularly strong in the fourth quarter. While we also saw a nice sequential growth in the amount of goods and services spending versus last quarter, there were a few pockets that slowed, such as the digital advertising spend in SME, that I mentioned earlier.

第四季度，來自國際消費者和國際中小企業和大型企業客戶的支出分別同比增長 23% 和 32%。在所有客戶類型中，第四季度 T&E 支出勢頭依然強勁。雖然我們也看到商品和服務支出的數量與上一季度相比出現了不錯的環比增長，但有一些領域放緩了，比如我之前提到的中小企業的數字廣告支出。

So what do all of these takeaways mean for 2023? At this point, on a dollar basis, most of our spending categories have fully recovered. So I would expect more stable growth rates this year across spending categories with the exception that year-over-year growth rates for T&E spending will likely be elevated in Q1 as we lap the impact of Omicron from the prior year.

那麼所有這些要點對 2023 年意味著什麼呢？在這一點上，以美元為基礎，我們的大部分支出類別已經完全恢復。因此，我預計今年各支出類別的增長率將更加穩定，但隨著我們將 Omicron 的影響從上一年回升，第一季度 T&E 支出的同比增長率可能會有所提高。

Importantly, all of the things that Steve just talked about that make up the strategy underlying our growth plan, have created a foundation for sustainable growth rates greater than what we were seeing pre-pandemic.

重要的是，史蒂夫剛才談到的所有構成我們增長計劃戰略的事情，都為可持續增長率奠定了基礎，高於我們在大流行前看到的增長率。

Now moving on to Loans and Card Member receivables on Slide 8, we saw a year-over-year growth of 24% in our loan balances as well as good sequential growth. This loan growth is now exceeding our spend growth as customers steadily rebuild their balances. Given that volumes, of course, have now lapped, there's a steep phase of recovery. We do expect the growth rate of our loan balances to moderate as we progress through 2023, but to remain elevated versus pre-pandemic levels.

現在轉到幻燈片 8 上的貸款和持卡人應收賬款，我們看到貸款餘額同比增長 24%，並且連續增長良好。隨著客戶穩步重建餘額，這種貸款增長現在超過了我們的支出增長。當然，考慮到銷量現在已經下降，復甦將進入一個陡峭的階段。我們確實預計，隨著 2023 年的進展，我們的貸款餘額增長率將放緩，但與大流行前的水平相比仍將保持較高水平。

The interest-bearing portion of our loan balances, which surpassed 2019 levels last quarter also continues to consistently rebuild with over 70% of year-over-year growth in the U.S. coming from our existing customers, which is about 10 percentage points more than what we saw in the years leading up to the pandemic.

我們貸款餘額的計息部分在上個季度超過了 2019 年的水平，也繼續持續重建，美國超過 70% 的同比增長來自我們的現有客戶，比我們的現有客戶高出約 10 個百分點我們在大流行之前的幾年裡看到了。

As you then turn to credit and provision on Slides 9 through 11, the high credit quality of our customer base continues to show through in our strong credit performance. Card Member loans and receivables write-off and delinquency rates remain below pre-pandemic levels.

然後，當您轉向幻燈片 9 到 11 的信貸和撥備時，我們客戶群的高信貸質量繼續體現在我們強勁的信貸表現中。持卡會員貸款和應收賬款註銷率和拖欠率仍低於大流行前水平。

So they did continue to pick up this quarter as we expected, which you can see on Slide 9. Going forward, we expect delinquency and write-off rates to continue to move up over time, but to remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2023, for card member loans.

因此，他們確實如我們預期的那樣在本季度繼續回升，您可以在幻燈片 9 中看到。展望未來，我們預計拖欠率和註銷率將隨著時間的推移繼續上升，但到 2023 年仍將低於大流行前的水平, 用於持卡人貸款。

Turning now to the accounting for this credit performance on Slide 10. And for this year-end, because the pandemic has clearly impacted the timing of quarterly reserve build and release adjustments across the industry, I think it's helpful to look at our full year provision results. Full year 2022 provision expense was $2.2 billion, which included a $617 million reserve build, primarily driven by loan growth, the continued steady and expected increase in delinquency rates and changes in the macroeconomic outlook as the year progressed.

現在轉向幻燈片 10 上的信用表現會計。對於今年年底，由於大流行明顯影響了整個行業季度準備金建立和釋放調整的時間，我認為查看我們的全年準備金會有所幫助結果。 2022 年全年的撥備費用為 22 億美元，其中包括 6.17 億美元的準備金建設，這主要是由於貸款增長、拖欠率持續穩定且預期上升以及宏觀經濟前景隨著時間的推移而發生的變化。

The $2.2 billion number is, of course, still unusually low by historical standards relative to the size of our loan balances and card member receivables. Of the full year $617 million reserve build, we saw $492 million of it in the fourth quarter. Since earlier this year, we were still releasing a significant amount of the credit reserves we had built to capture the uncertainty of the pandemic. At this point, we no longer have any of these pandemic-driven reserves remaining on our balance sheet.

當然，相對於我們的貸款餘額和持卡人應收賬款的規模，按照歷史標準，22 億美元的數字仍然異常低。在全年 6.17 億美元的儲備建設中，我們在第四季度看到了 4.92 億美元。自今年早些時候以來，我們仍在釋放大量為應對大流行的不確定性而建立的信貸儲備。在這一點上，我們的資產負債表上不再有任何這些大流行驅動的儲備。

Moving to reserves on Slide 11. You can see that we ended 2022 with $4 billion of reserves, representing 2.4% of our total loans and card member receivables. This reserve rate is about 50 basis points below the levels we had pre-pandemic or day 1 CECL reflecting the continued premiumization of our portfolio and the strong credit performance we have seen. We view this consolidated reserve rate as more comparable to day 1 CECL than the individual loans and receivables rates. Because as we talked a bit last quarter, our charge products in many instances now have some embedded lending functionality.

轉到幻燈片 11 的準備金。您可以看到，到 2022 年底，我們有 40 億美元的準備金，占我們總貸款和持卡人應收賬款的 2.4%。該準備金率比我們在大流行前或第一天 CECL 的水平低約 50 個基點，反映了我們投資組合的持續溢價化和我們所看到的強勁信貸表現。我們認為此綜合準備金率與第 1 天 CECL 相比，與個別貸款和應收賬款利率更具可比性。因為正如我們上個季度所說的那樣，我們的收費產品在許多情況下現在都具有一些嵌入式貸款功能。

We expect this reserve rate to increase a bit as we move through 2023, but to remain below pre-pandemic levels. Taking all of this into account, in 2023, you should expect to see provision expense move back towards more of a steady state relative to the size of our loan balances and Card Member receivables for the first time since we adopted CECL in early 2020.

我們預計，隨著 2023 年的到來，該準備金率會略有上升，但仍將低於大流行前的水平。考慮到所有這些，到 2023 年，您應該會看到撥備費用相對於我們的貸款餘額和持卡人應收賬款的規模，自 2020 年初採用 CECL 以來首次回歸穩定狀態。

Given the combination of our strong loan growth and the unusually low level by historical standards of provision expense in 2022, I would expect a significant year-over-year increase in provision expense.

鑑於我們強勁的貸款增長和 2022 年撥備費用的歷史標準異常低的水平相結合，我預計撥備費用將同比大幅增長。

Moving next to revenue on Slide 12. Total revenues were up 17% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and up 25% for the full year. This is well above our original expectations, driven by the successful execution of our strategy and is part of which strengthens our confidence in our long-term aspirations.

接下來是幻燈片 12 的收入。第四季度總收入同比增長 17%，全年增長 25%。這遠遠超出了我們最初的預期，這得益於我們戰略的成功執行，這增強了我們對長期目標的信心。

Before I get into more details about our largest revenue drivers in the next few slides, I would note that you see a 200-basis point spread between our FX-adjusted revenue growth and reported revenue growth for this quarter. While this is less of an impact from the strong dollar than what we saw in the prior quarter, it does remain a modest headwind.

在我在接下來的幾張幻燈片中詳細介紹我們最大的收入驅動因素之前，我會注意到您會看到本季度外匯調整後的收入增長與報告的收入增長之間存在 200 個基點的差距。雖然強勢美元的影響不如我們在上一季度看到的那樣，但它確實仍然是一個適度的逆風。

Our largest revenue line, discount revenue grew 16% year-over-year in Q4 and 27% for the full year on an FX-adjusted basis, as you can see on Slide 13. This growth is primarily driven by the momentum seen in our spending volumes throughout 2022. Net card fee revenues continued to accelerate throughout this year, up 25% year-over-year in the fourth quarter and 21% for the full year on an FX-adjusted basis, as you can see on Slide 14.

正如您在幻燈片 13 中看到的那樣，我們最大的收入線折扣收入在第四季度同比增長 16%，經外匯調整後全年增長 27%。這種增長主要是由我們的勢頭推動的整個 2022 年的支出量。正如您在幻燈片 14 中看到的那樣，今年全年的淨卡費用收入繼續加速增長，第四季度同比增長 25%，經外匯調整後全年增長 21%。

In 2023, I expect net card fees to be our fastest-growing revenue line. I would expect growth to moderate from the extremely high level we saw this quarter. This steady growth is powered by the continued attractiveness to both prospects and existing customers of our fee-paying products due to the investments we've made in our premium value propositions, as Steve discussed earlier, with acquisitions of U.S. Consumer Platinum and Gold Card members and U.S. Business Platinum Card members, all reaching record highs in 2022.

到 2023 年，我預計網卡費用將成為我們增長最快的收入線。我預計增長將從我們本季度看到的極高水平放緩。這種穩定的增長是由我們付費產品的潛在客戶和現有客戶的持續吸引力推動的，因為我們對我們的溢價價值主張進行了投資，正如史蒂夫之前討論的那樣，收購了美國消費者白金卡和金卡會員和美國商務白金卡會員，均在 2022 年創下歷史新高。

Moving on to Slide 15. You can see that net interest income was up 32% year-over-year in Q4 and 28% for the year on an FX-adjusted basis due to the recovery of our revolving loan balances. The rising interest rate environment has had a fairly neutral impact on our results in '22, as deposit betas lagged the rapid and steep benchmark rate increases during the year. However, when you think about 2023, deposit betas are now in line with more historical levels.

轉到幻燈片 15。您可以看到，由於我們的循環貸款餘額的恢復，第四季度淨利息收入同比增長 32%，經外匯調整後的全年淨利息收入增長 28%。利率上升的環境對我們 22 年的業績產生了相當中性的影響，因為存款貝塔值落後於當年快速而陡峭的基準利率增長。但是，當您考慮 2023 年時，存款貝塔值現在與更多的歷史水平一致。

So I would expect the year-over-year impact from rising rates to represent more of a headwind in 2023. To sum up on revenues, we're seeing strong results across the board and really good momentum. Looking forward into 2023, we expect to see revenue growth of 15% to 17%.

因此，我預計利率上升的同比影響將在 2023 年代表更多的逆風。總的來說，我們看到了全面的強勁業績和非常好的勢頭。展望 2023 年，我們預計收入將增長 15% 至 17%。

Now all this revenue momentum we just discussed has been driven by the investments we've made in those investments show up across the expense lines you see on Slide 17. Starting with variable customer engagement expenses, these costs, as you see on Slide 17, came in at 42% total revenues for the fourth quarter and 41% for the full year.

現在我們剛剛討論的所有這些收入動力都是由我們在這些投資中進行的投資驅動的，這些投資顯示在您在幻燈片 17 上看到的費用線上。從可變的客戶參與費用開始，這些成本，正如您在幻燈片 17 上看到的，第四季度總收入佔總收入的 42%，全年佔總收入的 41%。

Based off the Q4 exit rate, combined with our continued focus on investing to innovate our products, I'd expect variable customer engagement cost to approach 43% of total revenues in 2023. On the marketing line, we invested around $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter and $5.5 billion in the full year. As a reminder, our marketing dollars mostly represent the things we do to directly drive the great customer acquisition results we are seeing.

根據第四季度的退出率，再加上我們對產品創新投資的持續關注，我預計可變客戶參與成本將在 2023 年接近總收入的 43%。在營銷方面，我們在第四季度投資了約 13 億美元季度和全年 55 億美元。提醒一下，我們的營銷資金主要代表我們為直接推動我們所看到的巨大客戶獲取結果所做的事情。

As we look forward, we remain focused on driving efficiency so that our marketing dollars grow far slower than revenues, as we did for many years prior to the pandemic. As a result, in 2023, we expect to have marketing spend that is fairly flat to 2022. Moving to the bottom of Slide 17, brings us to operating expenses, which were $4.1 billion in the fourth quarter and $13.7 billion for full year '22.

展望未來，我們將繼續專注於提高效率，以便我們的營銷資金增長遠低於收入增長，就像我們在大流行之前的許多年所做的那樣。因此，到 2023 年，我們預計營銷支出將與 2022 年持平。轉到幻燈片 17 的底部，我們將看到運營支出，第四季度為 41 億美元，22 年全年為 137 億美元.

In understanding our OpEx results, it's important to note the net mark-to-market impact to our Amex Ventures strategic investment portfolio that I mentioned earlier with reference to Q4, these gains and losses are reported in the OpEx line and totaled $302 million in losses for full year 2022, while in the prior year, we had a $767 million benefit in net gains. Even putting this aside, as Steve and I have discussed all year, our 2022 operating expenses do represent a step function increase compared to prior years, as we have invested in key underpinnings to support our revenue growth and this inflation has had some impact on our expenses.

在了解我們的運營支出結果時，重要的是要注意我之前提到的第四季度對我們的 Amex Ventures 戰略投資組合的淨市值影響，這些收益和損失在運營支出行中報告，總損失為 3.02 億美元2022 年全年，而在前一年，我們的淨收益為 7.67 億美元。即使撇開這一點，正如我和史蒂夫全年所討論的那樣，我們 2022 年的運營支出確實比往年有所增加，因為我們已經投資於關鍵基礎以支持我們的收入增長，而且這種通貨膨脹對我們產生了一些影響花費。

Moving forward, similar to marketing, we are focused on gaining efficiencies and getting back to the low levels of growth in OpEx that we have historically seen. For 2023, we expect operating expenses to be around $14 billion and see these costs as a key source of leverage relative to the high level of revenue growth in our growth plan.

展望未來，與營銷類似，我們專注於提高效率並回到我們歷史上看到的運營支出的低增長水平。到 2023 年，我們預計運營費用約為 140 億美元，並將這些成本視為相對於我們增長計劃中高水平收入增長的關鍵槓桿來源。

Last, our effective tax rate for full year 2022 was around 22%, our best estimate of the effective tax rate in 2023 is between 23% to 24%, absent any legislative changes.

最後，我們對 2022 年全年的有效稅率約為 22%，我們對 2023 年有效稅率的最佳估計在 23% 至 24% 之間，沒有任何立法變化。

Turning next to capital, on Slide 18. We returned $4.9 billion in capital to our shareholders in 2022, including $1 billion in the fourth quarter with $639 million of common stock repurchases and $389 million in common stock dividends, all on the back of strong earnings generation.

接下來轉向資本，在幻燈片 18 上。我們在 2022 年向股東返還了 49 億美元的資本，其中包括第四季度的 10 億美元、6.39 億美元的普通股回購和 3.89 億美元的普通股股息，所有這些都得益於強勁的收益一代。

We ended the year with our CET1 ratio at 10.3% within our target range of 10% to 11%. In Q1 '23, as Steve discussed, we do expect to increase our dividend by 15%, to $0.60 per quarter, consistent with our approach of growing our dividend in line with earnings and our 20% to 25% target payout ratio. We'll continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth going forward.

年底，我們的 CET1 比率為 10.3%，處於 10% 至 11% 的目標範圍內。正如史蒂夫所討論的那樣，在 23 年第一季度，我們確實希望將股息增加 15%，達到每季度 0.60 美元，這與我們根據收益和 20% 至 25% 的目標派息率增加股息的方法一致。我們將繼續向股東返還我們產生的多餘資本，同時支持我們資產負債表的未來增長。

That then brings me to our growth plan and 2023 guidance on Slide 19. 2022 was a strong year, where we exceeded our full year guidance that we laid out in our growth plan last January for both the revenues and EPS. These results have strengthened our confidence in our 2023 guidance. First and most importantly, we expect the strategies that Steve laid out earlier to deliver continued high levels of revenue growth, leading to our revenue growth guidance for 2023 of 15% to 17% and setting us up well for 2024 and beyond.

這讓我想到了幻燈片 19 上的增長計劃和 2023 年指導。2022 年是強勁的一年，我們超過了去年 1 月在收入和每股收益增長計劃中製定的全年指導。這些結果增強了我們對 2023 年指南的信心。首先也是最重要的是，我們預計史蒂夫早些時候制定的戰略將帶來持續高水平的收入增長，從而使我們 2023 年的收入增長目標達到 15% 至 17%，並為 2024 年及以後做好準備。

As you think about the drivers of EPS growth in 2023, first, we expect to return to the low levels of growth we have historically driven in our marketing and operating expenses producing some nice leverage. Going the other direction, the 2 notable headwinds that should be just 2023 challenges are around the year-over-year impacts of provision and of interest rates, as I discussed earlier.

當您考慮 2023 年 EPS 增長的驅動因素時，首先，我們預計將恢復到我們在營銷和運營費用方面歷來推動的低增長水平，從而產生一些不錯的槓桿作用。另一方面，正如我之前討論的那樣，2023 年應該面臨的兩個顯著不利因素是圍繞撥備和利率的同比影響。

Combining all of these factors together, it leads to our EPS guidance of $11 to $11.40 for 2023. There is clearly uncertainty as it relates to the macroeconomic environment. But as Steve discussed, our 2023 guidance factors in the blue-chip macroeconomic consensus, which is for slowing growth though not a significant recession. I'd also say that our guidance is based on what we are actually seeing in terms of behavior from our customers around the globe.

將所有這些因素結合在一起，我們得出的 2023 年 EPS 指導值為 11 美元至 11.40 美元。顯然存在與宏觀經濟環境相關的不確定性。但正如史蒂夫所討論的那樣，我們的 2023 年指導因素考慮了藍籌宏觀經濟共識，即增長放緩而非嚴重衰退。我還要說，我們的指導是基於我們在全球客戶行為方面實際看到的情況。

And of course, it reflects what we know today about the regulatory and competitive environment. We feel good about the momentum we see in our business and in any environment. Remain committed to running the company with a focus on achieving our aspiration of sustainably delivering revenue growth in excess of 10% and mid-teens EPS growth in 2024 and beyond as we get to a more steady-state macro environment.

當然，它反映了我們今天對監管和競爭環境的了解。我們對我們在業務和任何環境中看到的勢頭感到滿意。繼續致力於經營公司，重點是實現我們的願望，即隨著我們進入更穩定的宏觀環境，在 2024 年及以後可持續地實現超過 10% 的收入增長和十幾歲的每股收益增長。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Kerri to open up the call for your questions.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回 Kerri 來打開你的問題的電話。

Thank you, Jeff. (Operator Instructions) And with that, the operator will now open up the line for questions. Operator?

謝謝你，傑夫。 （操作員說明）這樣，操作員現在將打開問題熱線。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Ryan Nash of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的瑞安納什。

So Steve, maybe just to focus on the revenue growth. So obviously, 15% to 17% is much better than the market was expecting, given macro concerns. And there's obviously been a little bit of an uptick in white-collar unemployment. So could you maybe just talk high level about how you're able to put up this type of revenue growth in a somewhat weakening environment. Maybe just talk through some of the things that are idiosyncratic to Amex that Jeff just referenced, at the end of the call, that maybe the market isn't appreciating that should be big drivers of revenue growth in the year ahead.

所以史蒂夫，也許只是專注於收入增長。很明顯，考慮到宏觀擔憂，15% 到 17% 比市場預期的要好得多。顯然，白領失業率略有上升。那麼，您是否可以高級別地談論您如何能夠在稍微疲軟的環境中實現這種類型的收入增長。也許只是談談 Jeff 剛剛在電話會議結束時提到的一些與美國運通不同的事情，也許市場並沒有意識到這應該是未來一年收入增長的主要驅動力。

Well, I think Jeff really hit it. I mean, what he basically said was, and this is where we, what we're focused on is, we can only run the business and forecast the business on what we're seeing. And what we're seeing is, we're still seeing high consumer growth. We're seeing high consumer growth in international. We talked about some moderation in small business. Corporate spending still has not come back. Jeff talked about T&E. But I think when you think about the model, I think what just -- you have to get an appreciation for is, we're a small segment of the overall U.S. population, and it's a premium customer base.

好吧，我認為傑夫真的做到了。我的意思是，他基本上說的是，這就是我們所關注的地方，我們只能經營業務並根據我們所看到的預測業務。我們所看到的是，我們仍然看到消費者的高速增長。我們看到國際消費者的高增長。我們談到了小企業的一些節制。企業支出仍未恢復。 Jeff 談到了 T&E。但我認為，當你考慮這個模型時，我認為你必須欣賞的是，我們只占美國總人口的一小部分，而且是一個優質的客戶群。

And that premium customer base, while not immune to economic downturn, certainly, right now is spending on through. And so the other thing that we've been doing is, we're constantly tightening up the card members that we're acquiring. I mean, look, the card member base we have today is, from a credit perspective, better than the card member base that we had pre-pandemic.

而這些高端客戶群，雖然不能免受經濟衰退的影響，但現在肯定會繼續消費。因此，我們一直在做的另一件事是，我們不斷收緊我們正在收購的持卡人。我的意思是，從信用的角度來看，我們今天擁有的持卡會員群比大流行前的持卡會員群要好。

And card members we're acquiring today are reaching a higher hurdle rate than ones we acquired just a year ago. And because of the value, there is still a good pool of customers that are out there.

我們今天收購的持卡會員的最低門檻比我們一年前收購的要高。而且由於價值，那裡仍然有很多客戶。

As far as overall white collar unemployment, what I would say is, yes, you've seen some headlines of individual companies that are going through layoffs. But the one thing that I would say is, I think it's really important to look at where these companies were pre-pandemic. And they're probably still at employment levels that are much higher than what they were pre-pandemic. And so there's a rightsizing a little bit. But even with that rightsizing, we still have unemployment rates under 4%. And so look, we look at unemployment. But it has not, at this particular point in time, had any impact on our card member base.

至於整體白領失業率，我想說的是，是的，你已經看到一些個別公司正在裁員的頭條新聞。但我要說的一件事是，我認為了解這些公司在大流行前的位置非常重要。而且他們可能仍處於比大流行前高得多的就業水平。所以有一點調整。但即使進行了精簡，我們的失業率仍然低於 4%。所以看，我們看看失業率。但在這個特定的時間點，它對我們的持卡會員群沒有任何影響。

I mean, again, keeping our write-offs at 0.8% and 0.6% is sort of not sustainable and we are at 1.1%, as Jeff said, it shows on the slides. And that will tick up a little bit over time. But that's just normal for the business. So I think what you have to really -- you have to look at is this is a premium card member base that appreciates premium products and is spending.

我的意思是，再次將我們的註銷率保持在 0.8% 和 0.6% 是不可持續的，正如 Jeff 所說，我們在 1.1%，它顯示在幻燈片上。隨著時間的推移，這會有所增加。但這對企業來說是正常的。所以我認為你必須真正 - 你必須看看這是一個高級卡會員群，他們欣賞優質產品並正在消費。

And it is a -- small -- it is a small piece of the overall U.S. economy. And we've talked about the economy being bifurcated and there's probably no better example of what we have here. The other thing that I would say, when you think about revenue growth, unlike our competitors, we have a 3-legged revenue stool here, right? You've got fees that we get for merchants, you have card fees.

它是——很小的——它是整個美國經濟的一小部分。我們已經談到了經濟的分化，可能沒有比這更好的例子了。我要說的另一件事是，當你考慮收入增長時，與我們的競爭對手不同，我們這裡有一個三足收入凳子，對吧？你有我們為商家收取的費用，你有卡費用。

Now card fees saw 25% growth in the fourth quarter. And while that's a high number, we certainly expect double-digit card fee growth to continue. And then you have, obviously, which is a smaller portion of our business, we have obviously interest revenue as well. So when we look at the card members we're acquiring, we're really looking at acquiring revenue across those 3 components. And the other thing that I'd point you to is 70% of the cards that we acquire are paying fees. So that's how we come up with 15% to 17%.

Now 卡費用在第四季度增長了 25%。雖然這是一個很高的數字，但我們當然預計兩位數的卡費增長將繼續下去。然後，很明顯，這是我們業務的一小部分，我們顯然也有利息收入。因此，當我們查看我們正在獲取的持卡會員時，我們實際上是在考慮通過這 3 個組成部分獲取收入。我要指出的另一件事是，我們獲得的卡中有 70% 是付費的。這就是我們得出 15% 到 17% 的方法。

The next question is coming from Sanjay Sakhrani of KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

I guess had a revenue question as well. Jeff, could you maybe just disaggregate the building blocks of the revenue growth. I know you mentioned a couple of things in terms of the trends on fees and NII. I'm just looking at discount revenue and the year-over-year change in growth, and that sort of decelerated a little bit more than I had anticipated. I guess, does that slow down? Maybe some help there would be helpful.

我想也有收入問題。傑夫，你能不能分解一下收入增長的基石。我知道你提到了一些關於費用和 NII 趨勢的事情。我只關注折扣收入和同比增長變化，這種減速比我預期的要多一些。我想，這會減慢速度嗎？也許那裡的一些幫助會有所幫助。

I think, Sanjay, the building blocks are pretty straightforward. And of course, as Steve just pointed out in our model, you always have to start spending right? That's what drives our model, that lending. And I think probably the important words that I would pick out of some of the things Steve and I have just said is, for most of our spending categories, if you think about what's important in terms of dollars, we really have hit recovery point.

我認為，Sanjay，構建基塊非常簡單。當然，正如史蒂夫剛剛在我們的模型中指出的那樣，您總是必須開始消費，對嗎？這就是驅動我們模型的動力，即貸款。而且我認為我可能會從史蒂夫和我剛才所說的一些事情中挑選出的重要詞語是，對於我們的大多數支出類別，如果你考慮美元方面的重要內容，我們確實已經達到了復甦點。

And so as we look at the Q4 rate, I actually see those exit rates as approaching pretty stable levels for what we think given the tremendous success we're having in bringing new customers into the franchise because as you know, Sanjay, that is a key aspect of what drives our growth.

因此，當我們查看第四季度的比率時，我實際上認為這些退出率接近我們認為的相當穩定的水平，因為我們在將新客戶引入特許經營方面取得了巨大成功，因為正如你所知，Sanjay，這是一個推動我們增長的關鍵方面。

I actually see those rates being fairly stable going forward. So that's what drives first, really strong discount revenue growth. Our card fee growth, as Steve just mentioned, is super sustainable. I'd just remind everyone that is the frontline item that grew double digits right through all the ups and downs of the pandemic.

我實際上看到這些利率在未來相當穩定。所以這就是首先推動真正強勁的折扣收入增長的原因。正如史蒂夫剛才提到的，我們的卡費增長是超級可持續的。我只想提醒大家，這是在大流行的所有起伏中增長了兩位數的前線項目。

And gosh, our latest figures that Steve just gave you, 70% of our card members on fee-paying products this quarter, we have a long ways to go to keep growing net card fees. And then, look, it's the third leg of the stool. It's only 19%, 20% of our revenues, but net interest income matters. And we are still in a rebuilding mode of balances. Certainly, that process has now begun in earnest, and that's why you saw our loans grow a little faster than volumes this quarter. So I don't expect to see quite as high a rate next year as you saw in Q4 but it's still above in 2023, I would say, at a stable level and still above where we were pre-pandemic because of that rebuilding process.

天哪，史蒂夫剛剛給你的最新數據，本季度我們 70% 的持卡會員使用付費產品，我們還有很長的路要走，以保持淨卡費用的增長。然後，看，這是凳子的第三條腿。它只占我們收入的 19%、20%，但淨利息收入很重要。我們仍處於平衡重建模式。當然，這個過程現在已經真正開始了，這就是為什麼你看到我們本季度的貸款增長速度比數量快一點。因此，我預計明年的增長率不會像您在第四季度看到的那樣高，但我想說的是，它在 2023 年仍處於穩定水平之上，並且由於重建過程仍高於大流行前的水平。

So you put all that together with the comments that you've now heard both Steve and I make, which is, look, we got to run the business based on what we see with our customers, who are premium consumers, select segments of small businesses and the largest companies in the world, and that's where you get to the 15% to 17% revenue growth.

所以你把所有這些和你現在聽到的史蒂夫和我的評論放在一起，那就是，看，我們必鬚根據我們對客戶的看法來經營業務，他們是優質消費者，選擇小型細分市場企業和世界上最大的公司，這就是你獲得 15% 到 17% 收入增長的地方。

The next question is coming from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

So another kind of subtext on this theme. I wanted to understand a little bit about how I should be triangulating the revenue growth outlook, which is very clear with the comments around normalization of credit, should I be expecting that you're underwriting to that pre-pandemic level of was it 2.3% on the slide, with marketing spend being flat. And the proprietary net acquired accounts here coming down a little bit in the quarter.

所以關於這個主題的另一種潛台詞。我想了解一下我應該如何對收入增長前景進行三角測量，這在有關信貸正常化的評論中非常清楚，我是否應該期望你承銷到大流行前的水平是 2.3%在幻燈片上，營銷支出持平。本季度專有淨收購賬戶略有下降。

So when I see all that, I'm thinking that your bubble of account acquisitions is through, I suppose, and you don't need that marketing dollars to drive that incremental rev growth at the same time as you're underwriting to a group, a credit pool that's similar to pre-pandemic, so we should have that NCO trajectory move back up towards pre-pandemic? Or is there something that I'm missing in pulling that all together?

因此，當我看到這一切時，我認為你的客戶收購泡沫已經過去了，我想，你不需要營銷資金來推動增量收入增長，同時你正在為一個集團承保，一個類似於大流行前的信用池，所以我們應該讓 NCO 軌跡回到大流行前？還是我在將所有這些放在一起時遺漏了什麼？

Well, I'll, there's a lot there, but let me try and talk about marketing, and Jeff can pick up on other components. But -- so look, the $5.5 billion of marketing spend was all-time record high. And the 12.5 million cards that we acquired. The fact that you saw a 300,000 card decrease sort of sequentially quarter-over-quarter is not something that we're concerned about at all. And some of that is complete timing of when you do your acquisition and so forth.

好吧，我會的，那裡有很多，但讓我試著談談營銷，傑夫可以選擇其他部分。但是——你看，55 億美元的營銷支出創歷史新高。還有我們獲得的 1250 萬張卡片。事實上，你看到 300,000 張卡環比連續減少，這根本不是我們關心的事情。其中一些是您進行採集等的完整時間。

And so -- but the key point here is that we're all looking at marketing efficiencies. And we continuously raise the bar on who we are bringing into the franchise. So we're not -- I wouldn't say we're at a bubble in terms of card acquisition. We don't project card acquisition. We provide the card acquisition numbers, but for us, and probably we need to do a better job going forward from a metrics perspective, but we really look at revenue.

所以——但這裡的關鍵是我們都在關注營銷效率。我們不斷提高將誰帶入特許經營權的門檻。所以我們不是——我不會說我們在卡片獲取方面處於泡沫之中。我們不計劃卡片獲取。我們提供了卡片獲取數量，但對我們來說，從指標的角度來看，我們可能需要做得更好，但我們確實關注收入。

I mean we look at the cards that we acquire in terms of how much revenue we can acquire. It's the same thing with billings. I mean, not all billings are created equal. I mean there's billings that you have that don't have a lot of value to it within the industry, we look at profitable billings, we look at card fees and we look at that, as Jeff said, interest income.

我的意思是我們根據我們可以獲得多少收入來看待我們獲得的卡片。賬單也是一樣的。我的意思是，並非所有賬單都是平等的。我的意思是，你擁有的賬單在行業內沒有太多價值，我們關注盈利的賬單，我們關注信用卡費用，正如傑夫所說，我們關注利息收入。

So I wouldn't take away from this that we were at an inflection point or a bubble or anything like that. I think the $5.5 billion is a tremendous amount of money to go out there and acquire with, and we're pushing the organization to even be more efficient and more effective with that money.

所以我不會認為我們正處於拐點或泡沫或類似的情況。我認為 55 億美元是一筆巨大的資金，可以用來收購，我們正在推動該組織利用這筆資金提高效率和效率。

So we're looking at the same kind of acquisition levels that we've had in the past with higher underwriting standards as well. As far as operating expenses go, and as you start to think about that, we had a big step-up in operating expenses as we had tremendous growth. And having had a lot of experience running the components of this organization from both a technology perspective and an operating perspective, travel and what have you, as you see those volume increases, you need to manage and get to that, to get to that next level of scale.

因此，我們正在研究與過去相同的收購水平以及更高的承保標準。就運營費用而言，正如您開始考慮的那樣，隨著我們的巨大增長，我們的運營費用大幅增加。從技術角度和運營角度來看，在運行該組織的組件方面擁有豐富的經驗，旅行和你有什麼，當你看到這些數量增加時，你需要管理並做到這一點，然後才能做到這一點規模水平。

And we believe that we have gotten to that next level of scale, and we'll get back to normal operating expense growth. And the other part of it, just like everybody else, look, rates have increased, there was some inflationary pressure within there, but make no mistake about it, there was -- we had to get to another scale.

我們相信我們已經達到了下一個規模水平，我們將恢復正常的運營費用增長。而它的另一部分，就像其他人一樣，看，利率增加了，那裡有一些通脹壓力，但不要搞錯了，我們必須達到另一個規模。

When you have 25% revenue growth, we have 25% billings growth. When you have travel bookings that are at all-time highs and continuing to increase quarter-over-quarter, you have to put in place not only the digital capabilities, but the people to make sure that you can handle all that.

當你有 25% 的收入增長時，我們就有 25% 的賬單增長。當您的旅行預訂量創下歷史新高並繼續環比增長時，您不僅要部署數字功能，還要部署人員以確保您能夠處理所有這些事情。

So from an expense perspective, the reason we're able to say that we think marketing will be where it is and operating expenses will not grow at the same level that they will is, because we believe we've gotten to that scale component that we now believe that we can grow revenues 15% to 17%, get into a 10% growth mode 2024 plus -- 10% plus growth mode 2024 and beyond with that scale until that point in time.

因此，從費用的角度來看，我們之所以能夠說我們認為營銷將保持原樣並且運營費用不會以與現在相同的水平增長，是因為我們相信我們已經達到了這樣的規模我們現在相信，我們可以將收入增長 15% 到 17%，進入 2024 年以上 10% 的增長模式 - 2024 年及以後的 10% 以上增長模式，直到那個時間點。

And I don't know when that is, where we have to have another scale jump. But what you saw from a growth perspective, last year was all about the scale. So Jeff, do you want to talk about credit or anything else or...

我不知道那是什麼時候，我們必須在哪裡進行另一次規模跳躍。但是你從增長的角度來看，去年是關於規模的。傑夫，你想談談信用或其他任何事情，或者...

No, I think you got it.

不，我想你明白了。

So that's how I would think about that in terms of going below sort of the components of revenue and how expenses relate to that revenue.

所以這就是我在收入的組成部分以及費用與收入的關係方面的思考方式。

The next question is coming from Mark DeVries of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Mark DeVries。

Sorry if I missed this, but can you talk about how sensitive your revenue guidance is to the macro, kind of what gets you to the high and low end of the range you provided? And are you using at all the same assumptions around GDP and unemployment that you used to kind of set the reserve levels?

抱歉，如果我錯過了這個，但你能談談你的收入指導對宏觀有多敏感，是什麼讓你達到你提供的範圍的高端和低端？您是否使用了與設定準備金水平相同的 GDP 和失業率假設？

Mark, one of the interesting things that I think surprises people is, we have looked historically every way you can imagine, trying to find really direct correlations between GDP growth and for that matter between movements in the markets that affect people's financial wealth. And the, I think, surprising thing to many people is we can't find any direct correlation between those 2 things. So when you look at our 15% to 17% guidance, it's really -- I'll go back to what Steve and I have both now said a couple of times, driven by -- our best indicator is what we see with our customers around the globe and how they're behaving.

馬克，我認為讓人們感到驚訝的一件有趣的事情是，我們從歷史上看你能想像到的每一種方式，試圖找到 GDP 增長與影響人們金融財富的市場變動之間真正直接的相關性。而且，我認為，讓許多人感到驚訝的是，我們找不到這兩件事之間的任何直接關聯。因此，當您查看我們 15% 至 17% 的指導時，這真的是——我會回到史蒂夫和我現在都說過幾次的話，由——我們最好的指標是我們對客戶的看法全球各地以及他們的行為方式。

And we certainly are aware of and thinking about various macroeconomic forecasts but you start with what behaviors are we actually seeing. And I'd also remind everyone that the U.S. remains by far our largest market. The U.S. economy shrank in the first 2 quarters of 2022, and we just posted revenue growth for the full year, 25%. So when I think about the 15% to 17% range, it's really not at all, 15% is a weaker economy, 17%.

我們當然知道並考慮各種宏觀經濟預測，但你從我們實際看到的行為開始。我還要提醒大家，到目前為止，美國仍然是我們最大的市場。美國經濟在 2022 年前兩個季度萎縮，我們剛剛公佈全年收入增長 25%。所以當我想到 15% 到 17% 的範圍時，它真的根本不是，15% 是一個較弱的經濟，17%。

Frankly, it's -- I wish we were more precise about forecasting, but it's just a little bit of forecast error, I would say, based on the trends we've seen and the macroeconomic consensus, which is absolutely, the economy is supposed to slow when you look at that consensus, and that's factored in here as well.

坦率地說，我希望我們能更準確地進行預測，但我想說，根據我們看到的趨勢和宏觀經濟共識，這只是一點點預測錯誤，這絕對是經濟應該當您查看該共識時會很慢，這也在此處考慮在內。

The next question is coming from Mihir Bhatia of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

I think you said 70% of existing loan lending growth came from existing members. Is there a similar metric you can share on the spending side? Just trying to understand as things normalize and we get into more of a normal cadence how, maybe help us project a little bit on spending growth, how that can translate as we look at your last few quarters of strong acquisitions.

我想你說過 70% 的現有貸款增長來自現有成員。您是否可以在支出方面分享類似的指標？只是想了解隨著事情的正常化，我們會進入更多的正常節奏，也許可以幫助我們對支出增長進行一些預測，當我們看到你最近幾個季度的強勁收購時，這會如何轉化。

Well, so what I'd say is that when you look at lending, I'm going to go back to that 70% number. And I do think it's an important one to think about the implications. I think occasionally, people look at our loan growth and say, "Oh, is that all the new customers you're acquiring and what do you know about them? " And so we actually draw a lot of comfort from the fact that you have 70% of that loan growth coming from just our existing customers that we know well, that we have history with, really just rebuilding more towards historical levels.

好吧，所以我要說的是，當你看貸款時，我會回到那個 70% 的數字。我確實認為考慮其影響很重要。我想偶爾，人們看著我們的貸款增長會說，“哦，是你獲得的所有新客戶嗎？你對他們了解多少？”所以我們實際上從你擁有的事實中得到了很大的安慰70% 的貸款增長來自我們熟悉的現有客戶，我們有歷史，實際上只是重建到歷史水平。

If you think about spending, in our model, we talked a lot about the fact that we have, I think, by the standards of most industries, remarkably high retention rates, in the high 90% range. And that's a real key strength of our model. Once we get someone into the franchise, they intend to stay. That group, depending on the economy is growing organically a little bit. When you think about adding our new customers, that is a key engine at any point in time of adding another in a normal environment.

如果你考慮支出，在我們的模型中，我們談到了很多事實，我認為，按照大多數行業的標準，我們擁有非常高的保留率，在 90% 的高範圍內。這是我們模型的真正關鍵優勢。一旦我們讓某人加入特許經營權，他們就會打算留下來。這個群體，取決於經濟正在有機增長一點點。當您考慮添加我們的新客戶時，這是在正常環境中隨時添加另一個客戶的關鍵引擎。

And it varies over time, but I might anchor you around an 8% to 10% kind of number. So it's a mixture of super low retention, what we're doing to spur more spending by our existing customers and that steady flow of new customers.

它會隨著時間的推移而變化，但我可能會將你固定在 8% 到 10% 左右的數字。因此，這是超低保留率的混合體，我們正在做的事情是為了刺激現有客戶的更多支出以及穩定的新客戶流。

And so one of the things, again, that Steve and I have both just talked about because I think people seem a little surprised by the 15% to 17%. It's a key driver of why we're comfortable with that is, our tremendous success over the last year and in the first weeks of 2023 at bringing great new customers into the franchise.

因此，史蒂夫和我剛才都談到了其中一件事，因為我認為人們似乎對 15% 到 17% 的比例感到有些驚訝。這是我們對此感到滿意的一個關鍵驅動因素，即我們在去年和 2023 年的頭幾週取得了巨大的成功，為我們的特許經營帶來了新客戶。

Yes. And the other thing I would say is, and I said this in my remarks, this virtuous cycle that we talk about, the more card members we bring in, the more merchant and partner offers that we can get. And so the engagement -- the increased engagement from existing cardholders is a really important driver of growth. So that -- the membership model is, we just don't bring our card members in and sort of watch them hope they grow.

是的。我要說的另一件事是，我在發言中說過，我們談論的這種良性循環，我們引入的持卡人越多，我們可以獲得的商家和合作夥伴的優惠就越多。因此，參與度——現有持卡人的參與度增加是增長的一個非常重要的驅動力。所以——會員模式是，我們只是不把我們的持卡會員帶進來，而是看著他們希望他們成長。

We bring our card members in and we want to work with them to grow. We do that from a small business perspective with our account development teams, making sure that they're taking advantage of all the benefits of the card, making sure that they're spending in categories that they can spend in, maximizing rewards and so forth.

我們把我們的持卡人帶進來，我們想和他們一起成長。我們從小企業的角度與我們的賬戶開發團隊一起做到這一點，確保他們利用卡的所有好處，確保他們在他們可以消費的類別中消費，最大化獎勵等等.

And we do that with our card base from an offer perspective through Amex offers, through other direct offers from partners embedded offers within the model. And so a lot of our engagement not only from a customer service perspective is to making sure that our card members are taking advantage of all the aspects of the card that are out there.

我們通過 Amex 報價，通過合作夥伴在模型中嵌入的其他直接報價，從報價的角度使用我們的卡庫來做到這一點。因此，我們的很多參與不僅是從客戶服務的角度來看，也是為了確保我們的持卡人能夠充分利用現有卡片的所有方面。

And so we really look to grow, if you would, like same-store sales, right? I mean, so from existing card members, we're constantly looking to grow that share of their wallet. And again, that gets easier as the cycle gets bigger because more and more merchants want to reach more and more of our card members.

所以我們真的希望增長，如果你願意，就像同店銷售一樣，對吧？我的意思是，從現有的持卡人那裡，我們一直在尋求增加他們錢包的份額。而且，隨著周期變大，這會變得更容易，因為越來越多的商家希望接觸越來越多的我們的持卡會員。

The next question is coming from Brian Foran of Autonomous Research.

下一個問題來自 Autonomous Research 的 Brian Foran。

Obviously, a very positive outlook. I don't want to sound negative, but I think what we're all kind of dealing with is, investors being like, this is great, I'll take it, but help me think about what are the risks? Where could it go wrong?

顯然，前景非常樂觀。我不想听起來很消極，但我認為我們都在處理的是，投資者就像，這很好，我會接受，但幫我想想有什麼風險？哪裡會出錯？

So maybe one question and one follow-up along the same theme. Jeff, when you were talking about the macro sensitivity, one question I hear sometimes is the note that the aspirational 2024 and beyond is a steady-state macro. And I get the investor question like, where is the dividing line?

所以也許一個問題和一個跟進是同一主題。傑夫，當你談到宏觀敏感性時，我有時聽到的一個問題是，令人嚮往的 2024 年及以後是一個穩態宏觀。我得到了投資者的問題，比如，分界線在哪裡？

Like what would a non-steady-state macro look like, where that guidance would then or aspiration would then not apply. So maybe you could touch on that, like what are the bounds in your mind for a steady-state macro?

就像非穩態宏觀會是什麼樣子，然後該指導或願望將不適用。所以也許你可以談談這個，比如你心目中的穩態宏的界限是什麼？

Well, I think, Brian, I would start with 2 comments. First, when you think about our long-term aspirations, we don't actually worry about recessions at all because the reality is, at some point, and I don't know if it's 6 months from now or 6 years, there will be a recession. And after that recession, there will be a recovery.

好吧，我想，布賴恩，我將從 2 條評論開始。首先，當你考慮我們的長期目標時，我們實際上根本不擔心經濟衰退，因為現實是，在某個時候，我不知道是從現在開始的 6 個月還是 6 年，會有衰退。在那次衰退之後，將會出現復甦。

And it doesn't change our view of we should be able to steadily grow this company in excess of 10%. Now when there's a recession where you see a very significant shrinkage in GDP, so not like the first half of last year where maybe the U.S. GDP went down 0.5 point or something. But where you suddenly see a quarter or 2 where you have pandemic like or great financial crisis like large percentage declines in GDP and you see huge spikes in unemployment.

這並沒有改變我們的看法，我們應該能夠讓這家公司穩步增長超過 10%。現在，當經濟衰退時，你會看到 GDP 出現非常顯著的萎縮，所以不像去年上半年那樣，美國 GDP 可能下降了 0.5 個百分點左右。但是你突然看到一個或兩個季度發生大流行病或嚴重的金融危機，如 GDP 大幅下降，你會看到失業率大幅飆升。

If you go back to one of the appendix slides, you will see that our CECL credit reserve accounting assumes a baseline and also builds in a downside scenario. In that downside scenario, you have 8% unemployment by the third quarter of 2023. Well, if there's 8% employment by the third quarter of 2023, we're going to have a few quarters where we're probably below our longer-term aspirations.

如果您返回其中一張附錄幻燈片，您會看到我們的 CECL 信用儲備核算假設了一個基線，並且還建立在一個下行情景中。在這種不利情況下，到 2023 年第三季度失業率為 8%。好吧，如果到 2023 年第三季度就業率為 8%，我們將有幾個季度的失業率可能低於長期水平願望。

But it's that kind of large shock that's going to knock us off for a few quarters, but I really want to keep coming back to and I suspect, Steve, you might reinforce this, but it doesn't change our long-term aspirations or how we're going to run the company.

但這種巨大的衝擊會讓我們停滯幾個季度，但我真的很想繼續回來，我懷疑，史蒂夫，你可能會強化這一點，但這不會改變我們的長期願望或我們將如何經營公司。

No. And I think just go back to the pandemic. So look, we pulled back on acquiring card members because I don't think anybody had any line of sight. I mean that the pandemic was worse than the financial crisis from a credit underwriting perspective. You never say never, but that's sort of like the 100-year flood, right?

不，我想回到大流行。所以看，我們取消了獲取持卡人的計劃，因為我認為沒有人有任何視線。我的意思是，從信用承銷的角度來看，大流行病比金融危機更嚴重。你永遠不會說永遠，但這有點像 100 年一遇的洪水，對吧？

And so my perspective is, we'll still acquire in that kind of scenario. And remember, everything we acquired today, we acquired through the cycle, but what we would do is move the credit criteria even further up. But what we would do again is, we would engage with our card members.

所以我的觀點是，我們仍然會在那種情況下獲得。請記住，我們今天獲得的一切，都是我們通過週期獲得的，但我們要做的是進一步提高信用標準。但我們會再次做的是，我們會與我們的持卡會員互動。

And I think one of the most successful things that we did during the pandemic was retaining cardholders, retaining those cardholders, whether it was through financial relief programs that got them through the hump for a couple of months or 6 months, whatever it was, or engaging them to spend in other areas and to stick with us.

我認為我們在大流行期間所做的最成功的事情之一就是留住持卡人，留住這些持卡人，無論是通過經濟救助計劃讓他們度過幾個月或 6 個月的低谷，無論是什麼，還是讓他們在其他領域消費並堅持使用我們。

So the reality is, is that if we were running this business quarter-to-quarter, which we don't, you would pull back. But the reality is, as Jeff said, after every recession there is a recovery. And the last thing you want to do is retrench in such a way that you're not going to be able to take advantage of the recovery. And that retrenchment looks -- it looks like layoffs that don't make sense and pulling back on marketing and trying to hit an EPS number for a quarter or for a year that is irrelevant.

所以現實情況是，如果我們按季度經營這項業務，而我們沒有這樣做，你就會撤退。但現實是，正如傑夫所說，每次衰退之後都會出現復甦。您想做的最後一件事就是以您無法利用複甦的方式進行緊縮。而這種裁員看起來——看起來像是沒有意義的裁員，並撤回營銷並試圖在一個季度或一年內達到無關緊要的每股收益數字。

What's relevant is for a 172-year-old company to continue to grow over the medium and long term. And the way you do that is, you invest judiciously and you invest smartly. And in times when things are bad, you invest in your infrastructure, you invest in your people because you're going to need great people through when a recession is over, and your infrastructure is going to need to do that.

對於一家擁有 172 年曆史的公司而言，重要的是要在中長期內繼續發展。你這樣做的方式是，你明智地投資，你聰明地投資。在情況不佳的時候，你投資於基礎設施，投資於你的員工，因為當經濟衰退結束時，你將需要優秀的人才，而你的基礎設施將需要這樣做。

And where companies make mistakes is, let go of great people, and also do not invest in those things, they're going to need 6 to 9 months from now when the recession is over. So yes, we may have a moment in time, as Jeff said, it could be 6 months, it could be 6 years, but there will be a time when we don't make that. And -- but there will be a time where we exceed that. And that's why we say our long-term aspiration is for 10%, 10%-plus growth in revenue, and we feel we're on our way to that.

公司犯錯誤的地方是，放棄優秀的人才，也不投資這些東西，從現在開始，經濟衰退結束後，他們將需要 6 到 9 個月的時間。所以是的，我們可能會有時間，正如 Jeff 所說，可能是 6 個月，也可能是 6 年，但總有一天我們不會做到這一點。並且 - 但總有一天我們會超越它。這就是為什麼我們說我們的長期目標是收入增長 10%、10% 以上，我們覺得我們正在實現這一目標。

The next question is coming from Rick Shane of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

Look, when we look at Slide 5, it's really interesting in terms of the contribution and the significant growth from Millennials and Gen Z. You guys have been really successful there. And we've seen that progress over time. I'm curious, given that the Millennial, Gen Z growth in the last year was basically 5x, 4 to 5x other cohorts and the significant loan growth. If we looked at this distribution by age cohort, not for billed business, but by portfolio in terms of borrowings, what the distribution would it look like with Millennials over-index versus the peers.

看，當我們看幻燈片 5 時，它在千禧一代和 Z 世代的貢獻和顯著增長方面真的很有趣。你們在那裡真的很成功。隨著時間的推移，我們已經看到了這種進步。我很好奇，鑑於去年千禧一代、Z 世代的增長基本上是其他人群的 5 倍、4 到 5 倍，而且貸款增長顯著。如果我們按年齡組來看這種分佈，不是針對收費業務，而是按借款方面的投資組合，那麼千禧一代與同齡人相比指數過高的分佈會是什麼樣子。

Well, the short answer, Rick, is no. When you think about the behavior of the Millennials and Gen Zs, there are a few distinguishing features, and we've talked about these. They tend to be more digitally engaged. They tend to be more engaged with the overall value proposition, which we actually see as a good thing. Because of that, they often will engage more quickly when they get a new product.

嗯，簡短的回答，里克，是否定的。當您考慮千禧一代和 Z 世代的行為時，會發現一些顯著特徵，我們已經討論過這些。他們往往更傾向於數字化。他們傾向於更多地參與整體價值主張，我們實際上認為這是一件好事。因此，當他們獲得新產品時，他們通常會更快地參與進來。

But I'd also remind you of the other stat we've talked about this morning, which is 70% of our growth in loans right now is coming from existing customers. So as we add a lot of these Millennials there, that segment is still not adding as much to the loan growth because of the rebuild imbalances by your existing customers.

但我也要提醒你我們今天早上談到的另一個統計數據，即我們目前 70% 的貸款增長來自現有客戶。因此，當我們在那裡添加很多這些千禧一代時，由於現有客戶的重建失衡，該部分仍然沒有增加貸款增長。

So while the behaviors of the younger card members are, on average similar to the older card members when you think about borrowing, just sort of the math here because you've got this rebuilding effect, would say that they're not driving that big a portion of our loan growth.

因此，當你考慮借貸時，雖然年輕的持卡人的行為平均與年長的持卡人相似，但這裡只是一種數學，因為你有這種重建效應，會說他們並沒有那麼大我們貸款增長的一部分。

Yes. And we tend to get a higher share of their wallet, but they have lower -- they do have lower spending. And the great part about Millennials and Gen Zs is that they're -- and depending on where you are in Millennials, I mean some Millennials are 40 now. So I mean, they're in a different thing. But the reality is the lifetime value of these cardholders is going to be significantly more than the lifetime value of acquiring a Boomer or acquiring a Gen Xer right now. And that is -- that's very attractive as well.

是的。我們往往會在他們的錢包中獲得更高的份額，但他們的份額較低——他們的支出確實較低。千禧一代和 Z 世代的重要之處在於他們——取決於你在千禧一代中的位置，我的意思是有些千禧一代現在已經 40 歲了。所以我的意思是，他們處於不同的狀態。但現實是，這些持卡人的終生價值將遠遠超過現在獲得嬰兒潮一代或 X 世代的終生價值。那就是——這也非常有吸引力。

And if you look, again, Rick, on Page 5, you'll see that, look, it's 30% of the billed business growth. On the other hand, the Boomer growth is only 6%. And some of those have been leery to go back traveling, still. So we'd also expect that to go up.

里克，如果你再看一下第 5 頁，你會看到，看，它佔已結算業務增長的 30%。另一方面，嬰兒潮一代的增長率僅為 6%。其中一些人仍然對回去旅行持懷疑態度。所以我們也希望它會上升。

The next question is coming from Dominick Gabriele of Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自 Oppenheimer 的 Dominick Gabriele。

I just want to change the topic a little bit. I just wanted your updated thoughts, if you could just remind everybody about your ability to make account-by-account purchase limit authorization decisions, given many of the accounts don't actually have stated line sizes on the charge cards. So I'm just really wondering about severity of loss in a downturn versus the frequency is more based on unemployment, but your ability to really hone in on limiting the severity of loss given your underwriting techniques.

我只是想稍微改變一下話題。我只是想知道你的最新想法，如果你能提醒大家你有能力做出逐個賬戶的購買限額授權決定，因為許多賬戶實際上並沒有在藉記卡上註明行數。所以我真的很想知道經濟低迷時損失的嚴重程度與頻率更多是基於失業率，但你有能力真正磨練限制損失的嚴重程度，因為你的承保技術。

I mean I think you just reminded us. The reality is, it's a couple of things, right? #1, we constantly go through and look at contingent liability that's not being utilized. And so if we have somebody that has X for a line and they're only using 25% of X, we may not keep X there that long because we don't want to be a lender of last resort, right? That's #1.

我的意思是我認為你剛剛提醒了我們。現實是，這是兩件事，對吧？ #1，我們不斷檢查並查看未使用的或有負債。因此，如果我們有人擁有一條線路的 X 而他們只使用了 X 的 25%，我們可能不會將 X 留在那裡那麼久，因為我們不想成為最後貸款人，對吧？那是#1。

#2, we also are putting down for new card members, we're raising those cycles, but raising the limit, excuse me, raising the limit and the hurdle rate that we acquire card members. But we underwrite every transaction. We make a credit decision not based on the line because most of our card members do not have a line. I mean, obviously, traditional lending cards have lines. But other than that, we are underwriting every single transaction.

#2，我們也正在為新的持卡人提供服務，我們正在提高這些週期，但提高了限額，對不起，提高了我們獲得持卡人的限額和門檻率。但我們承保每一筆交易。我們不根據線路做出信用決定，因為我們的大多數持卡人都沒有線路。我的意思是，很明顯，傳統藉貸卡是有線的。但除此之外，我們承保每一筆交易。

So we're not letting somebody just run it up because they've run it up in the past, and we're not letting somebody run up to a limit and have that write off. One of the advantages of our model, and I'm not going to get into all the variables underneath for a couple of reasons. #1, we don't have time. And #2, it's very complicated. And #3, I probably don't fully all understand the whole thing either. But it's -- it is a -- an advantage of this model is that every single transaction is adjudicated on its own merits. It's not adjudicated based on an open to buy. And that is very important. It also -- but that's from a credit perspective, that's a really reassuring thing.

因此，我們不會讓某人只是運行它，因為他們過去已經運行過它，我們不會讓某人運行到極限並註銷。我們模型的優勢之一，出於幾個原因，我不打算深入探討下面的所有變量。 #1，我們沒有時間。 #2，它非常複雜。 #3，我可能也不完全理解整件事。但它 - 它是 - 這種模式的優勢在於每筆交易都根據其自身的優點進行裁定。它不是根據開放購買來裁定的。這非常重要。它也——但從信用的角度來看，這是一件非常令人放心的事情。

But from a spending perspective, it also enables why you read some of these stories of, hey, I just bought a painting for $75 million. There's nobody that has a $75 million line, right? Now those are very difficult underwriting decisions and not for the faint of heart, but it does show that we make those same kind of decisions on a $200 purchase, on a $400 purchase.

但從消費的角度來看，它也解釋了為什麼你會讀到一些這樣的故事，嘿，我剛花了 7500 萬美元買了一幅畫。沒有人擁有 7500 萬美元的生產線，對嗎？現在這些是非常困難的承保決定，不是為了膽小的人，但它確實表明我們對 200 美元的購買和 400 美元的購買做出了同樣的決定。

Every single transaction that comes through this system is adjudicated on its own merits, not on sort of some open to buy, and that gives us great comfort in terms of not having somebody just run something up and then have something written off.

通過該系統進行的每一筆交易都根據其自身的優點進行裁定，而不是根據某種開放購買的方式進行裁定，這給了我們很大的安慰，因為不會有人只是運行一些東西然後註銷一些東西。

Yes. The only thing I'd add, I think that is a unique capability we have honed over many decades since we first started the charge card product. The other advantage of the charge card product, I would say, Dominick, is it does give us this population who is supposed to pay us in full every 30 days, which actually is almost like an early warning system from an overall risk management perspective of when there are problems that pop up in various parts of the world or various segments or various customer types. And we think that's actually helpful to our overall results, and it's at the heart of the many things that drives us historically and today they have, by far, best-in-class credit metrics.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，我認為這是我們自推出借記卡產品以來數十年來磨練出來的獨特能力。借記卡產品的另一個優勢，Dominick，是它確實給了我們這個應該每 30 天全額付款的人群，從整體風險管理的角度來看，這實際上幾乎就像一個預警系統當世界各地或不同細分市場或不同客戶類型出現問題時。我們認為這實際上對我們的整體結果有幫助，並且它是歷史上推動我們的許多事情的核心，而今天他們擁有迄今為止一流的信用指標。

The next question is coming from Moshe Orenbuch of Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Moshe Orenbuch。

Sorry to go back to the revenue guide. But Jeff, and I appreciate the 25% revenue growth for the full year, but the quarter was 17%. And between you and Steve, you both said that there was going to be a slowdown, it's still strong, obviously, but a slowdown in card fee revenue growth and with the comments about margin, probably net interest income. So I guess is there a part of the revenue base that you think is accelerating in '23?

抱歉回到收入指南。但 Jeff 和我都很欣賞全年 25% 的收入增長，但本季度為 17%。在你和史蒂夫之間，你們都說經濟將會放緩，它仍然很強勁，顯然，但卡費收入增長放緩以及關於保證金的評論，可能是淨利息收入。所以我想你認為 23 年的收入基礎中是否有一部分正在加速？

Well, so 2 comments. Also I think it's a good call out, Moshe. The first comment is, as you think about 2021, of course, the base year here, you saw things progressively pick up as you went through the year. So that's why each quarter, our volumes on a year-over-year basis has slowed a little bit. But we also have pointed out that I think you're sort of through that recovery period now. So I think what you see in Q4, in our view, is very typical of what you're going to get.

好吧，所以有 2 條評論。我也認為這是一個很好的呼籲，Moshe。第一個評論是，當你想到 2021 年時，當然是這裡的基準年，你看到事情在你經歷這一年的過程中逐漸好轉。所以這就是為什麼每個季度，我們的銷量同比都有所放緩。但我們也指出，我認為你現在已經度過了那個恢復期。所以我認為你在第四季度看到的，在我們看來，是你將要得到的非常典型的東西。

Now the one exception that we do think will accelerate, is the net interest income piece because you do have customers continuing to rebuild balances. So net card fees probably moderates a little bit. Net interest income probably accelerates a little bit, but your discount revenue should be pretty consistent with what you have seen in this quarter. And that's really the model that leads you from Q4 to what we expect for 2023.

現在我們確實認為會加速的一個例外是淨利息收入部分，因為您確實有客戶繼續重建餘額。因此，網卡費用可能會有所緩和。淨利息收入可能會略有加快，但您的貼現收入應該與本季度的情況相當一致。這確實是引導您從第四季度到我們對 2023 年的預期的模型。

The next question is coming from Bob Napoli of William Blair.

下一個問題來自威廉·布萊爾的鮑勃·那不勒斯。

And maybe some topics that haven't been touched on yet. And Steve, you called out investment in services and adjacencies, I'd say. And also, the international piece, expanding your merchant acceptance there. So just any call outs on adjacencies, the B2B payments and your -- how that contributes to your long-term strategy. And then international, I seem to recall Japan being an important market for you, saw some good growth internationally, Japan reopened, China is reopening. Is there acceleration potential in international in 2023?

也許還有一些尚未觸及的主題。史蒂夫，我會說，你呼籲對服務和鄰接進行投資。而且，國際部分，擴大了您在那裡的商家接受度。因此，只要對鄰接、B2B 支付以及您的任何呼籲——這對您的長期戰略有何貢獻。然後是國際，我似乎記得日本對你來說是一個重要的市場，在國際上看到了一些良好的增長，日本重新開放，中國正在重新開放。 2023年國際化有加速潛力嗎？

Yes. So let me hit a couple of these topics and hopefully, I'll remember them all that you went through. But look, I think international, we've seen really good and just look at the slides, you've seen really good growth from not only a consumer perspective, which is over 20%, but international SME and large corporations are growing at 32%.

是的。因此，讓我談談其中的幾個主題，希望我能記住您經歷過的所有這些主題。但是看，我認為國際，我們看到了非常好的情況，看看幻燈片，你看到了非常好的增長，不僅從消費者的角度來看，超過 20%，而且國際中小企業和大公司的增長速度為 32 %。

So -- and remember, pre-pandemic, those were the fastest-growing parts of our business. So we expect that to continue to grow, which obviously Japan is part of it and one of our top markets. From an acceptance perspective, we continue to grow acceptance internationally. We're really happy with the coverage gains that we've had, and we'll continue to focus on that.

所以——請記住，在大流行之前，這些是我們業務增長最快的部分。所以我們預計它會繼續增長，顯然日本是其中的一部分，也是我們的主要市場之一。從接受度的角度來看，我們繼續提高國際接受度。我們對我們已經取得的覆蓋面收益感到非常滿意，我們將繼續關注這一點。

We've talked about focusing on priority cities, we focused on all the categories, e-commerce and restaurants and lodging and tourist attractions, airlines, hotel and so forth to get those up. But again, with that we're getting 23% and 32% billings growth and our coverage is not where we want it to be yet, and we will continue to invest in that coverage.

我們已經談到了專注於優先城市，我們專注於所有類別，電子商務和餐飲住宿和旅遊景點，航空公司，酒店等。但同樣，我們獲得了 23% 和 32% 的賬單增長，我們的覆蓋範圍還沒有達到我們想要的水平，我們將繼續投資於該覆蓋範圍。

Look, as far as B2B goes, B2B continues to be a good story for us, but it's just a small part -- it's a smaller part of the business. And we continue to invest in capabilities and we'll continue to focus on B2B, but that will add not only to commercial spending, but that will also add to small business spending as well.

看，就 B2B 而言，B2B 對我們來說仍然是一個好故事，但這只是一小部分——它是業務的一小部分。我們將繼續投資於能力，我們將繼續專注於 B2B，但這不僅會增加商業支出，還會增加小企業支出。

And remember, 80% of the small business spending that we have is in the category of B2B spending. And so we'll continue to hunt for that and try and automate more and more of those billings, and it makes it easy to get on the card.

請記住，我們擁有的 80% 的小企業支出屬於 B2B 支出類別。因此，我們將繼續尋找這一點，並嘗試將越來越多的賬單自動化，這樣就可以很容易地獲得信用卡。

The next question will be coming from Don Fandetti of Wells Fargo.

下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Don Fandetti。

Steve, just curious if you've seen anything that sort of raised your concern level around competition in U.S. consumer or small business. I mean, it seems to us like you might be pulling away a little bit from competitors. I'm not sure if your metrics suggest that or not.

史蒂夫，我很好奇你是否看到過任何引起你對美國消費者或小企業競爭的擔憂程度的事情。我的意思是，在我們看來，您可能正在與競爭對手拉開一點距離。我不確定您的指標是否表明了這一點。

Well, I mean, I don't -- we continually look to raise the bar. And I think that there's a lot of great competitors out there. We've got JPMorgan and Bank of America and Wells Fargo and U.S. Bank and Capital One. And everybody is -- they're all strong. And they -- I mean they all had pretty strong results from a growth perspective. But as I said in my remarks, the more value we continue to add, the more we get our flywheel working, the harder it is to catch up.

好吧，我的意思是，我不——我們一直在尋求提高標準。而且我認為那裡有很多偉大的競爭對手。我們有摩根大通、美國銀行、富國銀行、美國銀行和第一資本。每個人都是——他們都很堅強。他們——我的意思是從增長的角度來看，他們都取得了相當強勁的成果。但正如我在發言中所說，我們繼續增加的價值越多，我們的飛輪越運轉，就越難趕上。

And we're not resting on our laurels. And that's why we continue to invest. We continue to invest in value propositions. We continue to invest in capabilities. We continue to invest in service. And so are we increasing the distance between us and our competitors?

我們並沒有固步自封。這就是我們繼續投資的原因。我們繼續投資於價值主張。我們繼續投資於能力。我們繼續投資於服務。那麼，我們是否正在拉近與競爭對手之間的距離？

I don't know how you measure that, but I think we -- our goal is to constantly make it hard for them to catch up. And our goal is to make sure that we're trying to be 1 step, 2 steps or 3 steps ahead of them. And it's flattering actually that they're coming after the segments that we're in. And -- but competition is there, and it is fierce. And for us, competition is just not U.S. consumer. It's small business. It's corporate. It's in international. And so we're fighting a lot of battles here in terms of defending our territory, but I think the team is doing a really, really good job.

我不知道你是如何衡量的，但我認為我們——我們的目標是不斷讓他們難以趕上。我們的目標是確保我們努力領先他們 1 步、2 步或 3 步。事實上，他們正在追趕我們所處的細分市場，這真是令人高興。而且 - 但競爭在那裡，而且非常激烈。對我們來說，競爭不只是美國消費者。這是小生意。是公司的。它在國際上。因此，我們在這里為保衛我們的領土進行了很多戰鬥，但我認為團隊做得非常非常好。

But we're never going to rest. And if, in fact, they stopped, we'd still keep going. So it is really important. I think it's one of the things that we decided a number of years ago that we would constantly refresh our products on a very regular basis and add value on an interim basis, which you've seen with our Platinum Card and our other products. And I think that's really helped us out quite a bit.

但我們永遠不會休息。如果，事實上，他們停下來了，我們仍然會繼續前進。所以這真的很重要。我認為這是我們多年前決定的事情之一，我們將不斷定期更新我們的產品並臨時增加價值，您已經在我們的白金卡和其他產品中看到了這一點。我認為這確實幫助了我們很多。

Our final question will come from Lisa Ellis of MoffettNathanson.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 MoffettNathanson 的 Lisa Ellis。

Terrific. I had a question about international, the 26% billed business growth in international really caught my eye because that figure is more than 2x of what Visa and Mastercard's international credit growth was in the fourth quarter. And so I was hoping to just dig in a little bit, so into what -- looking at your international business, is driving that and how sustainable it is? It looks like it's mostly driven by spending per card. The card growth isn't unusually high. So is there a -- I'm trying to understand, is this a significant share gain going on? Is this acceptance that you're driving? Is this something unique about the geographic composition of the customer base? Can you just dig into that a little bit, perhaps, as I imagine?

了不起。我有一個關於國際的問題，26% 的國際收費業務增長確實引起了我的注意，因為這個數字是 Visa 和萬事達卡第四季度國際信貸增長的 2 倍多。所以我希望稍微深入一點，看看你的國際業務是什麼在推動它，它的可持續性如何？看起來它主要是由每張卡的支出驅動的。卡的增長並不異常高。那麼有沒有 - 我試圖理解，這是一個重要的份額增長嗎？這是你正在駕駛的接受嗎？這是客戶群地理構成的獨特之處嗎？你能不能像我想像的那樣深入研究一下？

Yes. So Lisa, I think it's -- look, pre-pandemic, we were pretty close to 20% anyway from an international perspective. And look, it's a smaller base than Visa, MasterCard. And it's a really high premium customer segment. And it's a segment that travels. It's a card base that travels quite a bit.

是的。所以麗莎，我認為這是——看，大流行前，從國際角度來看，我們已經非常接近 20%。看，它的基數比 Visa、MasterCard 小。這是一個非常高的高端客戶群。這是一個旅行的部分。這是一個旅行相當多的卡片基地。

So pre-pandemic, we were growing in that 20% range. And that growth was due to a real focus on value proposition and a focus on merchant acceptance. I think what you're seeing right now, which is 26% growth, which is slightly outsized growth, is still a recovery from the pandemic, right? I mean if you think about it, this 26% growth quarter-over-quarter, you still had a lot of lockdowns. People were not traveling last year at this time in international.

所以在大流行前，我們的增長率在 20% 的範圍內。這種增長是由於對價值主張的真正關注和對商家接受度的關注。我認為你現在看到的是 26% 的增長，略微超額增長，仍然是從大流行中復蘇，對吧？我的意思是，如果你仔細想想，這個 26% 的環比增長，你仍然有很多封鎖。去年這個時候人們沒有在國際旅行。

And so look, we're -- our goal is to -- our hope is to continue to grow this business as it was pre-pandemic at around that 20% level. But from my perspective, there's really nothing unusual here. We're sticking to our strategy, enhancing the value, continuing to add merchant acceptance and continuing to invest in this segment -- these 2 segments of small business and international consumer card, which were fast-growing pre-pandemic.

所以看，我們 - 我們的目標是 - 我們希望繼續發展這項業務，因為它在大流行前處於 20% 左右的水平。但從我的角度來看，這裡真的沒有什麼不尋常的。我們堅持我們的戰略，提高價值，繼續增加商家的接受度，並繼續投資這一領域——小企業和國際消費卡這兩個領域，這兩個領域在大流行前增長迅速。

So nothing really unusual. And it probably normalized a little bit as the year goes on because people were getting out there and traveling and we got into the second and third quarters.

所以沒什麼特別的。隨著時間的推移，它可能會稍微正常化，因為人們開始外出旅行，我們進入了第二和第三季度。

With that, we will bring the call to an end. Thank you for joining today's call and for your continued interest in American Express. The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions.

至此，我們將結束通話。感謝您參加今天的電話會議並感謝您對美國運通的持續關注。 IR 團隊將隨時回答任何後續問題。

Operator, back to you.

接線員，回到你身邊。

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast replay will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.americanexpress.com shortly after the call. You can also access a digital replay of the call at (877) 660-6853 or (201) 612-7415, access code 13734498 after 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time on January 27 through February 3. That will conclude our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，網絡直播重播將在電話會議後不久在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上提供。您還可以在下午 1:00 後撥打 (877) 660-6853 或 (201) 612-7415，接入代碼 13734498 觀看通話的數字重播。東部時間 1 月 27 日至 2 月 3 日。這將結束我們今天的電話會議。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。