美國運通 (AXP) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Express Q2 2022 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Kerri Bernstein. Thank you. Please go ahead.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加美國運通 2022 年第二季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，今天的通話正在錄音中。我現在想將會議轉交給我們的主持人，投資者關係主管 Kerri Bernstein 女士。謝謝你。請繼續。

Thank you, Donna, and thank you all for joining today's call.

謝謝你，唐娜，謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

As a reminder, before we begin, today's discussion contains certain forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance. These are based on management's current expectations, and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC.

提醒一下，在我們開始之前，今天的討論包含有關公司未來業務和財務業績的某些前瞻性陳述。這些是基於管理層當前的預期，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。可能導致實際結果與這些陳述產生重大差異的因素包含在今天的演示幻燈片和我們提交給 SEC 的報告中。

The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures. The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discussed. All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com.

今天的討論還包含非公認會計原則的財務措施。可比的 GAAP 財務指標包含在本季度的收益材料以及我們討論的前期收益材料中。所有這些都發佈在我們的網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上。

We'll begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results. And then Jeff Campbell, Chief Financial Officer, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance. After that, we'll move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Jeff. With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

今天我們將從董事長兼首席執行官史蒂夫·斯奎裡開始，他將首先發表一些關於公司進展和成果的評論。然後，首席財務官 Jeff Campbell 將對我們的財務業績進行更詳細的審查。之後，我們將轉到史蒂夫和傑夫的結果問答環節。有了這個，讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Kerri, and welcome to the IR team and your first earnings call. And good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us for our second quarter call.

謝謝，Kerri，歡迎加入 IR 團隊和您的第一次收益電話會議。大家早上好。感謝您加入我們的第二季度電話會議。

We had an outstanding quarter. Revenues were up 31%, reaching a record high, and earnings per share were $2.57. Card member spending was at record levels. Billed business was up 30% from a year earlier on an FX-adjusted basis, led by a vigorous rebound in Travel & Entertainment spending and continued strong growth in Goods & Services. We added 3.2 million new proprietary cards in the quarter, driven by continued strong demand for our fee-based premium products. Acquisitions of our U.S. Consumer Platinum, Gold and Delta co-brand Cards were all at record highs. Customer retention and credit quality both remain at exceptionally strong levels.

我們有一個出色的季度。收入增長 31%，創歷史新高，每股收益為 2.57 美元。卡會員消費創歷史新高。經外匯調整後，計費業務同比增長 30%，主要得益於旅遊和娛樂支出的強勁反彈以及商品和服務的持續強勁增長。由於對我們的收費優質產品的持續強勁需求，我們在本季度新增了 320 萬張新的專有卡。我們對美國消費者白金卡、金卡和達美聯合品牌卡的收購均創歷史新高。客戶保留率和信用質量均保持在異常強勁的水平。

While our strong growth may be somewhat surprising given the uncertainties in the external environment, there are a number of reasons for our continued momentum. First, the decisions we made through the pandemic continue to pay dividends. At the outset, we made it a priority to be there for our customers, focusing on delivering great service, providing financial relief programs, expanding our Shop Small initiatives, and injecting new value into our premium consumer and business products with benefits that were relevant for the times. We then ramped up investments early in the recovery to rebuild our momentum and grow our customer base, refreshing our premium products through a series of new benefits that enhanced our generational relevance. And we accelerated our acquisition engine. These decisions lay the foundation for the strength in customer retention, engagement and acquisitions that you've seen over the past year and our results today.

儘管鑑於外部環境的不確定性，我們的強勁增長可能有些令人驚訝，但我們的持續增長勢頭有很多原因。首先，我們在大流行期間做出的決定繼續帶來回報。起初，我們將服務客戶作為優先事項，專注於提供優質服務、提供財務救濟計劃、擴大我們的小店計劃，並為我們的優質消費者和商業產品注入新價值，並帶來與以下相關的利益時代。然後，我們在復蘇初期加大了投資力度，以重建我們的勢頭並擴大我們的客戶群，通過一系列增強我們代際相關性的新福利來更新我們的優質產品。我們加速了我們的收購引擎。這些決定為您在過去一年中看到的客戶保留、參與和收購以及我們今天的業績奠定了基礎。

Other key factors driving our performance include the many competitive advantages that we have that differentiate us, as well as several structural shifts, some near-term recovery tailwinds, which you remember we discussed at our Investor Day.

推動我們業績的其他關鍵因素包括我們擁有的許多使我們與眾不同的競爭優勢，以及一些結構性轉變，一些近期復甦的順風，您還記得我們在投資者日討論過的。

A critical competitive advantage is our global premium customer base, which is, at scale, unrivaled in the industry, with millions of high-spending super prime, loyal consumer and business customers across generations and geographies. Importantly, Millennial and Gen Z consumers are a large part of our existing customer base and our fastest-growing age cohort, making up 60% of all new consumer card members we're acquiring and around 75% of new U.S. consumer Platinum and Gold Card members. Our new customers have excellent credit profiles, are highly engaged in the premium benefits that come with American Express membership, and are spending more from the start of their relationship with us than previous newcomers, giving us a long runway for growth. In fact, spending by this age group grew 48% in the second quarter, significantly outpacing other generations.

一個關鍵的競爭優勢是我們的全球優質客戶群，其規模在業內無與倫比，擁有數百萬高消費的超級優質、忠誠的消費者和企業客戶，跨越世代和地域。重要的是，千禧一代和 Z 世代消費者是我們現有客戶群和增長最快的年齡組的很大一部分，占我們獲得的所有新消費卡會員的 60%，以及大約 75% 的新美國消費者白金卡和金卡成員。我們的新客戶擁有出色的信用狀況，高度參與美國運通會員資格帶來的高級福利，並且從與我們的關係開始就比以前的新客戶花費更多，為我們的增長提供了漫長的道路。事實上，這個年齡段的消費在第二季度增長了 48%，大大超過了其他幾代人。

Our momentum is also being aided by several structural shifts, which we believe give us significant opportunities to sustain our growth across all lines of business over the longer term. These include the growth in the premium consumer card space around the world, the ongoing increase in online commerce and digital engagement among consumers, the strong pace of small business creation and the acceleration in the digitization -- digitizing of commercial payments.

我們的發展勢頭也得益於幾項結構性轉變，我們相信這為我們提供了重要的機會來維持我們在所有業務領域的長期增長。其中包括全球高端消費卡領域的增長、在線商務和消費者數字化參與的持續增長、小企業創建的強勁步伐以及數字化的加速——商業支付的數字化。

Finally, in the near term, we're benefiting from recovery tailwinds in our businesses outside the U.S., in the large and global corporate space and in Travel & Entertainment. The travel rebound in particular has been faster and stronger than anyone expected. Total T&E spending exceeded pre-pandemic levels in April for the first time. It was at 108% of 2019 levels for the quarter, led by strong growth in Global Consumer and SME spending, and a significant uptick in large and global corporate travel. And we don't see demand in the T&E categories declining significantly anytime soon. Based on the strength of future bookings coming through our consumer travel agency and the trends our partners in the travel industry like Delta are experiencing, particularly in the premium space.

最後，在短期內，我們將受益於我們在美國以外的業務、大型和全球企業領域以及旅遊和娛樂領域的複蘇順風。特別是旅行反彈比任何人預期的都要快和強勁。 T&E 總支出在 4 月份首次超過大流行前的水平。在全球消費者和中小企業支出的強勁增長以及大型和全球商務旅行的顯著增長的帶動下，該季度為 2019 年水平的 108%。而且我們認為 T&E 類別的需求不會很快顯著下降。基於通過我們的消費者旅行社獲得的未來預訂實力以及我們在旅遊行業的合作夥伴（如達美）正在經歷的趨勢，特別是在高端領域。

Of course, we are wary of the uncertainties in the current economic environment and the impact it's having on our business. The historically low unemployment rate is a positive factor as it's helping to drive our strong credit metrics. And we continue to see no significant signs of stress in our consumer base.

當然，我們對當前經濟環境的不確定性及其對我們業務的影響保持警惕。歷史上的低失業率是一個積極因素，因為它有助於推動我們強勁的信貸指標。我們繼續看到我們的消費者群沒有明顯的壓力跡象。

Inflation is a bit of a mixed bag. It's a modest contributor to our strong growth in volumes. But inflation when combined with low unemployment also puts pressure on operating costs. For example, like everyone else, we're seeing intense competition for the best talent. But because our colleagues are a key driver of our success, we continue to invest in talent, which is having an impact on our operating expenses.

通貨膨脹有點喜憂參半。這是我們銷量強勁增長的一個適度貢獻。但通貨膨脹與低失業率相結合也會給運營成本帶來壓力。例如，與其他所有人一樣，我們看到了對最優秀人才的激烈競爭。但由於我們的同事是我們成功的關鍵驅動力，我們繼續投資於人才，這對我們的運營費用產生了影響。

Looking forward, as I've emphasized many times before, we run the company for the long term, and our investment strategy is grounded in this principle. As we sit here today, we have an abundance of great opportunities. And we'll continue to make our decisions with a longer-term view like we did during the pandemic. That means we will continue to invest at high levels in those areas that will drive sustainable growth, including our brand, value propositions, customers, colleagues, technology and coverage. We remain confident that the successful execution of this strategy will position us well as we seek to achieve our long-term growth plan aspirations of revenue growth in excess of 10% and mid-teens EPS growth in 2024 and beyond.

展望未來，正如我之前多次強調的，我們是長期經營公司的，我們的投資策略就是基於這個原則。當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們擁有大量的絕佳機會。我們將繼續以更長遠的眼光做出決定，就像我們在大流行期間所做的那樣。這意味著我們將繼續在推動可持續增長的領域進行高水平投資，包括我們的品牌、價值主張、客戶、同事、技術和覆蓋範圍。我們仍然相信，成功執行這一戰略將使我們處於有利地位，因為我們尋求實現我們的長期增長計劃，即在 2024 年及以後實現收入增長超過 10% 和 10% 左右的每股收益增長。

Thank you. And I'll now turn it over to Jeff.

謝謝你。我現在把它交給傑夫。

Well, thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Good to be here to talk about our second quarter results, which reflect another strong quarter and great progress against our multiyear growth plan.

好吧，謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早上好。很高興在這裡談論我們的第二季度業績，這反映了另一個強勁的季度以及我們的多年增長計劃取得的巨大進展。

Starting with our summary financials on Slide 2. Most importantly, our second quarter revenues were $13.4 billion, up 33% on an FX-adjusted basis, strengthening sequentially from last quarter's already strong 31% year-over-year growth rate. Our reported second quarter net income was $2 billion, with earnings per share of $2.57.

從幻燈片 2 的財務摘要開始。最重要的是，我們第二季度的收入為 134 億美元，經外匯調整後增長 33%，比上一季度已經強勁的 31% 的同比增長率連續增強。我們報告的第二季度淨收入為 20 億美元，每股收益為 2.57 美元。

Now as I said last quarter, given that year-over-year comparisons of net income have been challenging due to the volatility that the pandemic caused in credit reserve adjustments, we are including pretax pre-provision income as a supplemental disclosure again this quarter, which we believe gives you additional insight into the trends of our underlying earnings. On this basis, second quarter pretax pre-provision income was $3 billion, up 27% versus the same time period last year.

現在正如我上個季度所說，鑑於大流行在信貸準備金調整中引起的波動性導致淨收入的同比比較具有挑戰性，我們在本季度再次將稅前撥備收入作為補充披露，我們相信這能讓您更深入地了解我們的基本收益趨勢。在此基礎上，第二季度稅前撥備收入為 30 億美元，比去年同期增長 27%。

So now let's get into a more detailed look at our results, beginning with volumes. Turning on Slide 3. You can see the continued momentum in spending from our strong customer base that Steve noted earlier. Billed business and total network volumes were up around 30% year-over-year on an FX-adjusted basis in the second quarter. We feel really good about both our year-over-year growth as well as our sequential growth. The second quarter saw us achieving our highest ever level of quarterly billed business. And if you were to compare to 2019, the first quarter grew [19%], while the second quarter growth rate accelerated even further to 28%. Importantly, our spending volumes strengthened as we went through the quarter, with the month of June also reaching a new monthly record high. And as we sit here today, this momentum has continued into early July.

所以現在讓我們更詳細地看看我們的結果，從數量開始。打開幻燈片 3。您可以看到史蒂夫早些時候指出的我們強大的客戶群的持續消費勢頭。經外匯調整後，第二季度計費業務和總網絡量同比增長約 30%。我們對我們的同比增長和連續增長都感覺非常好。第二季度，我們實現了季度計費業務的最高水平。如果與 2019 年相比，第一季度增長了 [19%]，而第二季度的增長率甚至進一步加快至 28%。重要的是，隨著我們整個季度的過去，我們的支出量有所增加，6 月份也創下了新的月度記錄。當我們今天坐在這裡時，這種勢頭一直持續到 7 月初。

Now I would point out that when you think about year-over-year growth rates, volumes in 2021 were, of course, in a steep phase of recovery as the year progressed. So I do expect that our year-over-year growth rates will moderate as we progress through the rest of 2022.

現在我要指出的是，當您考慮同比增長率時，隨著時間的推移，2021 年的銷量當然處於急劇的複蘇階段。因此，我確實預計，隨著我們在 2022 年剩餘時間內的進展，我們的同比增長率將會放緩。

Our spending metrics are being driven by both sustained growth in Goods & Services spending and by an acceleration in T&E recovery in the second quarter.

我們的支出指標受到商品和服務支出的持續增長以及第二季度 T&E 復甦加速的推動。

Starting first with Goods & Services spending on Slide 4. We saw a year-over-year growth of 18% in the second quarter. We are now multiple quarters into seeing the effects of the structural shift in online commerce spending patterns, which is accelerated by the pandemic, with our growth rates remaining steady. Specifically, online and card-not-present spending grew 15% in the second quarter.

首先從幻燈片 4 上的商品和服務支出開始。我們看到第二季度同比增長 18%。我們現在已經看到了多個季度的在線商務支出模式結構性轉變的影響，這種轉變因大流行而加速，我們的增長率保持穩定。具體而言，第二季度在線和無卡消費增長了 15%。

In contrast, total T&E spending, as you see on Slide 5, showed an acceleration in its recovery this quarter even more than we and many others would have expected, reaching 108% of 2019 levels. The high demand for travel will be a steep recovery across all customer types. This strength in both goods and services and T&E spending is also evident as we break spending trends down across our consumer and commercial businesses, with a few other key points that I'd suggest you take away.

相比之下，正如您在幻燈片 5 中看到的那樣，T&E 總支出顯示出本季度的複蘇加速，甚至超過了我們和許多其他人的預期，達到 2019 年水平的 108%。對旅行的高需求將是所有客戶類型的急劇復甦。當我們打破消費和商業業務的支出趨勢時，商品和服務以及 T&E 支出的這種優勢也很明顯，我建議您刪除其他一些關鍵點。

First, beginning on Slide 6, Millennial and Gen Z customers continue to drive our highest global consumer Billed business growth, with their spending up 48% year-over-year. I'd also call out that this quarter, all other age cohorts have now reached the pre-pandemic levels of T&E spending, including baby boomers, who had been slower to recover.

首先，從幻燈片 6 開始，千禧一代和 Z 世代客戶繼續推動我們最高的全球消費者計費業務增長，他們的支出同比增長 48%。我還要指出，本季度，所有其他年齡段的 T&E 支出現在都達到了大流行前的水平，包括恢復較慢的嬰兒潮一代。

In our commercial business, on Slide 7, spending from our small- and medium-sized enterprise clients continues to drive our overall growth, with spending up 25% year-over-year. While a smaller part of our business, it is worth noting the significant acceleration in growth of 58% of the large and global corporate customers, significantly above last quarter's growth rate. This is a sign of a more meaningful business travel recovery.

在我們的商業業務中，在幻燈片 7 上，我們的中小型企業客戶的支出繼續推動我們的整體增長，支出同比增長 25%。雖然我們業務的一小部分，但值得注意的是 58% 的大型和全球企業客戶的增長顯著加速，大大高於上一季度的增長率。這是一個更有意義的商務旅行複甦的跡象。

So overall, we are pleased that our strength in spending volumes has exceeded our original expectations for the year. And again this quarter, the majority of our high level of growth was driven by the number of transactions flowing through our network, with some modest additional impact from inflation. This positions us well for our long-term growth aspirations.

總體而言，我們很高興我們的支出實力超過了我們對這一年的最初預期。同樣，本季度，我們的大部分高水平增長是由流經我們網絡的交易數量推動的，通貨膨脹帶來了一些適度的額外影響。這使我們能夠很好地實現我們的長期增長願望。

Moving on now to receivable and loan balances on Slide 8. We saw a good sequential growth in our loan balances, which are now well above pre-pandemic levels this quarter. The interest-bearing portion of our loan balances also continues to consistently increase quarter-over-quarter, but remains a bit below 2019 levels, as paydown rates have remained elevated.

現在轉到幻燈片 8 上的應收賬款和貸款餘額。我們的貸款餘額連續增長良好，目前遠高於本季度大流行前的水平。我們貸款餘額的計息部分也繼續環比持續增加，但仍略低於 2019 年的水平，因為還款率一直處於較高水平。

As you then turn to credit and provision, on Slides 9 through 11, the high credit quality of our customer base continues to show through in our extremely strong credit performance. Card Member loans and receivables write-off and delinquency rates remain well below pre-pandemic levels. And though they did continue to tick up slightly overall this quarter, as we expected, they are trending a bit better than our expectations when we started the year.

然後，當您轉向信貸和撥備時，在幻燈片 9 到 11 上，我們客戶群的高信貸質量繼續體現在我們極其強勁的信貸表現中。卡會員貸款和應收賬款核銷和拖欠率仍遠低於大流行前的水平。儘管正如我們預期的那樣，本季度總體上它們確實繼續小幅上漲，但它們的趨勢比我們年初時的預期要好一些。

Turning then to the accounting for this credit performance on Slide 10. As you know, there are a couple of key drivers of provision expense. First, actionable credit performance, which, as we just discussed, is extremely strong, and second, changes in credit reserves under the CECL methodology. We built a small amount of reserves this quarter as our loan balances grew and the macroeconomic outlook that we flowed through our CECL models got slightly worse relative to the outlook back in Q1, both partially offset by improved portfolio quality. This reserve build, combined with our low net write-offs, drove $410 million of provision expense for the second quarter.

然後轉到幻燈片 10 上對這種信用績效的會計處理。如您所知，準備費用有幾個關鍵驅動因素。首先，可操作的信貸表現，正如我們剛剛討論的那樣，非常強勁，其次，根據 CECL 方法論，信貸準備金的變化。隨著貸款餘額的增長，我們在本季度建立了少量準備金，而我們通過 CECL 模型得出的宏觀經濟前景相對於第一季度的前景略有惡化，這兩者都被投資組合質量的改善部分抵消。這一儲備金的增加，加上我們的低淨沖銷額，為第二季度帶來了 4.1 億美元的撥備費用。

As you see on Slide 11, we ended the second quarter with $3.2 billion of reserves, representing 3.1% of our loan balances and 0.2% of our Card Member receivable balances, respectively. This remains well below the reserve levels we had pre-pandemic.

正如您在幻燈片 11 中看到的那樣，我們在第二季度末的準備金為 32 億美元，分別占我們貸款餘額的 3.1% 和我們的卡會員應收餘額的 0.2%。這仍然遠低於我們大流行前的儲備水平。

Going forward, we continue to expect delinquency and loss rates to move up slowly over time, but to remain well below pre-pandemic levels this year. I do expect to end the year with a higher level of reserves on our balance sheet than where we ended this quarter, given our expected loan growth. But the overall range and timing of reserve adjustments will be heavily influenced by how the macroeconomic outlook evolves between now and the end of the year.

展望未來，我們繼續預計拖欠率和損失率將隨著時間的推移緩慢上升，但仍將遠低於今年大流行前的水平。鑑於我們預期的貸款增長，我確實預計到今年年底，我們資產負債表上的準備金水平將高於本季度末的水平。但儲備調整的整體範圍和時機將在很大程度上受到從現在到年底宏觀經濟前景如何演變的影響。

Moving next to revenue on Slide 12. Total revenues were up 31% year-over-year in the second quarter or 33% on an FX-adjusted basis, as we continue to see a stronger U.S. dollar relative to most of the major currencies in which we operate. Overall, these results were above our original expectations.

接下來是幻燈片 12 上的收入。第二季度總收入同比增長 31%，或在外匯調整的基礎上增長 33%，因為我們繼續看到美元相對於大多數主要貨幣走強我們經營的。總體而言，這些結果超出了我們最初的預期。

Before I get into more details about our largest revenue drivers in the next few slides, I would note that service fees and other revenue was up sharply at 79% growth year-over-year, largely driven by the uptick in travel-related revenues that accelerated this quarter, with cross-border spend in particular surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

在接下來的幾張幻燈片中詳細介紹我們最大的收入驅動因素之前，我會注意到服務費和其他收入同比大幅增長 79%，這主要是由於旅遊相關收入的增長本季度加速，尤其是跨境支出超過了大流行前的水平。

Our largest revenue line, discount revenue, grew 32% year-over-year in Q2 on an FX-adjusted basis, as you can see on Slide 13, driven by both our sustained growth in goods and services spending and the accelerated T&E recovery that you saw in our spending trends.

正如您在幻燈片 13 中看到的那樣，我們最大的收入線折扣收入在第二季度經外匯調整後同比增長 32%，這得益於我們的商品和服務支出持續增長以及 T&E 加速復蘇你在我們的消費趨勢中看到了。

Net card fee revenues were up 19% year-over-year in the second quarter on an FX-adjusted basis, with growth continuing to accelerate, as you can see on Slide 14, largely driven by the continued attractiveness to both prospects and existing customers of our fee-paying products as a result of the investments we've made in our premium value propositions.

經外匯調整後，第二季度淨卡費收入同比增長 19%，增長繼續加速，如幻燈片 14 所示，主要是由於對潛在客戶和現有客戶的持續吸引力由於我們對我們的溢價價值主張進行的投資，我們的付費產品。

This quarter, we acquired 3.2 million new cards, with acquisitions of U.S. Consumer Platinum card numbers again reaching a record high and increasing 20%, above last quarter's record levels, demonstrating the great demand we're seeing, especially for our premium fee-based products.

本季度，我們購買了 320 萬張新卡，美國消費者白金卡的購買量再次創下歷史新高，增長 20%，高於上一季度的創紀錄水平，這表明我們看到了巨大的需求，尤其是對於我們的收費收費產品。

Moving on to net interest income. On Slide 15, you can see that it was up 31% year-over-year on an FX-adjusted basis, accelerating above last quarter's growth rate due to the continued recovery of our revolving loan balances. Looking forward, while I would expect our loan balances to continue to recover at higher growth rates, the rising rate environment will likely cause our net interest income growth rate to slow given our sizable non-interest-bearing charge balances.

轉到淨利息收入。在幻燈片 15 上，您可以看到經外匯調整後同比增長 31%，由於我們的循環貸款餘額持續恢復，高於上一季度的增長率。展望未來，雖然我預計我們的貸款餘額將繼續以較高的增長率恢復，但鑑於我們龐大的非計息費用餘額，利率上升的環境可能會導致我們的淨利息收入增長率放緩。

To sum up on revenues on Slide 16. We're seeing continued strong results and sustained momentum across the board. So looking forward, we now expect to see revenue growth of 23% to 25% for the full year of 2022.

總結幻燈片 16 的收入。我們看到持續強勁的業績和全面的持續發展勢頭。因此，展望未來，我們現在預計 2022 年全年的收入將增長 23% 至 25%。

So the revenue momentum we just discussed has been driven by the investments we've made in our brand, value propositions, customers, colleagues, technology and coverage. And those investments show up across the expense lines you see on Slide 17.

因此，我們剛剛討論的收入勢頭是由我們在品牌、價值主張、客戶、同事、技術和覆蓋範圍方面的投資推動的。這些投資顯示在您在幻燈片 17 上看到的支出項目中。

Starting with variable customer engagement expenses, these costs came in as expected, at 42% of total revenues for the quarter, and are tracking with our expectations for variable customer engagement costs to run at around 42% of total revenues on a full year basis. On the marketing line, we invested $1.5 billion in the second quarter.

從可變客戶參與費用開始，這些成本按預期出現，佔本季度總收入的 42%，並且與我們對可變客戶參與成本的預期保持一致，全年佔總收入的 42% 左右。在營銷線上，我們在第二季度投資了 15 億美元。

We feel really good about the strong demand for new card acquisitions , as we showed on Slide 14. More importantly, we feel good about the spend, credit and revenue profiles of the customers we are bringing in to American Express membership, which continue to look strong relative to what we saw pre-pandemic. I would now expect to spend a little over $5 billion on marketing in 2022.

正如我們在幻燈片 14 中展示的那樣，我們對新卡購買的強勁需求感到非常滿意。更重要的是，我們對我們為美國運通會員帶來的客戶的支出、信用和收入狀況感到滿意，這些情況繼續看起來相對於我們在大流行前看到的情況而言，情況要好得多。我現在預計到 2022 年將在營銷上花費超過 50 億美元。

Moving to the bottom of Slide 17 brings us to operating expenses, which were $3.3 billion in the second quarter. There's often some quarterly volatility in this number due to the varied timing of certain accruals and entries. This quarter, for example, we see the impact of the prior year including a sizable benefit from net mark-to-market gains in our Amex Ventures strategic investment portfolio.

移動到幻燈片 17 的底部，我們將看到第二季度的運營費用為 33 億美元。由於某些應計和分錄的時間不同，這個數字通常會出現季度波動。例如，本季度，我們看到了上一年的影響，包括從我們的 Amex Ventures 戰略投資組合中的淨市值收益中獲得可觀收益。

As I said last quarter, and as Steve discussed earlier, inflation, while driving some modest positive impact on volumes, it's also putting pressure on our operating expenses, particularly in our compensation costs. Taking everything into account, we now expect our full year operating expenses to be around $13 billion, as we invest in our talented colleague base, technology and other key underpinnings of our growth given our tremendously high levels of revenue growth.

正如我上個季度所說，正如史蒂夫之前討論的那樣，通貨膨脹雖然對銷量產生了一些適度的積極影響，但也給我們的運營費用帶來了壓力，特別是在我們的薪酬成本方面。考慮到所有因素，我們現在預計全年運營費用約為 130 億美元，因為我們投資於我們才華橫溢的同事基礎、技術和其他支持我們增長的關鍵基礎，因為我們的收入增長水平非常高。

Turning next to capital. on Slide 18. We returned $1 billion of capital to our shareholders in the second quarter, including common stock repurchases of $611 million and $394 million in common stock dividends on the back of strong earnings generation. Our CET1 ratio was 10.3% at the end of the second quarter, within our target range of 10% to 11%. We plan to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth.

轉向資本旁邊。在幻燈片 18 上。我們在第二季度向股東返還了 10 億美元的資本，其中包括 6.11 億美元的普通股回購和 3.94 億美元的普通股股息，這是由於強勁的盈利產生。第二季度末，我們的 CET1 比率為 10.3%，在我們 10% 至 11% 的目標範圍內。我們計劃在支持資產負債表增長的同時，繼續將我們產生的多餘資本返還給股東。

Given the concerns about the macro economy and the market, it is worth noting that in the Fed's CCAR stress test results released last month, American Express was again one of the few firms that remained cumulatively profitable under the Fed's macroeconomic stress scenario and we had the highest profit margin as a percentage of assets of any participating bank.

鑑於對宏觀經濟和市場的擔憂，值得注意的是，在美聯儲上個月公佈的 CCAR 壓力測試結果中，美國運通再次成為美聯儲宏觀經濟壓力情景下為數不多的保持累計盈利的公司之一，我們有任何參與銀行的最高利潤率佔資產的百分比。

That brings me to our growth plan and 2022 guidance on Slide 19. Our performance year-to-date and our full year guidance reinforce several points that Steve and I have now both discussed. First and most importantly, we clearly have momentum across all of the areas critical for us to drive sustained high levels of revenue growth, including customer acquisition, engagement and retention, evidenced by our strong Q2 results. Inflation is additionally providing some modest benefit to our revenues. The combination of all of these things led us to increase our expectations for full year revenue growth to 23% to 25%, up from our original range of 18% to 20%.

這讓我想到了幻燈片 19 的增長計劃和 2022 年指導。我們年初至今的業績和全年指導強化了史蒂夫和我現在都討論過的幾點。首先也是最重要的是，我們在所有對我們推動持續高水平收入增長至關重要的領域顯然都有動力，包括客戶獲取、參與和保留，我們強勁的第二季度業績證明了這一點。通貨膨脹也為我們的收入提供了一些適度的好處。所有這些因素的結合使我們將全年收入增長的預期從最初的 18% 到 20% 提高到 23% 到 25%。

For now though, our EPS guidance remains unchanged, from between $9.25 and $9.65. Let me walk you through our thinking here. As I talked about earlier, we feel really good about the strong results generated by our marketing investments this year. And that's why we now expect to spend a little over $5 billion for the full year, modestly above our original expectations. Both Steve and I also talked about the fact that there are some pressures on our operating expenses, particularly around compensation and partially fueled by inflation. And therefore, we now expect our operating expenses to be around $13 billion this year. Lastly and most importantly, as we think about our EPS this year, as I talked about in the credit section, while our credit performance and metrics remain extremely healthy, we can't predict how the macroeconomic outlook will evolve. That makes it difficult sitting here today to predict a precise range of outcomes for any potential CECL reserve adjustments for the balance of the year.

不過，就目前而言，我們的每股收益指引保持不變，介於 9.25 美元至 9.65 美元之間。讓我在這裡帶您了解我們的想法。正如我之前所說，我們對今年營銷投資產生的強勁成果感到非常滿意。這就是為什麼我們現在預計全年花費略高於 50 億美元，略高於我們最初的預期。史蒂夫和我都談到了我們的運營費用存在一些壓力的事實，特別是在薪酬方面，並且部分受到通貨膨脹的推動。因此，我們現在預計今年的運營費用約為 130 億美元。最後也是最重要的是，當我們考慮今年的每股收益時，正如我在信貸部分談到的那樣，雖然我們的信貸業績和指標仍然非常健康，但我們無法預測宏觀經濟前景將如何演變。這使得今天坐在這裡很難預測今年餘額中任何潛在的 CECL 儲備調整的精確結果範圍。

That said, should the macroeconomic outlook not change meaningfully between now and the end of the year, and therefore, not have a large impact on current reserves in the balance of the year, we would expect to be at or even a bit above the high end of our EPS guidance range. In any environment, we remain committed to executing against our growth plan and running the company with a focus on achieving our aspiration of delivering revenue growth in excess of 10% and mid-teens EPS growth on a sustainable basis in 2024 and beyond.

也就是說，如果從現在到年底宏觀經濟前景沒有顯著變化，因此對今年餘額中的當前儲備沒有太大影響，我們預計會達到甚至略高於高位我們的 EPS 指導範圍結束。在任何環境下，我們都將繼續致力於執行我們的增長計劃並運營公司，重點是實現我們的願望，即在 2024 年及以後實現收入增長超過 10% 和 10% 左右的可持續每股收益增長。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Kerri to open up the call for your questions.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給 Kerri 來打開你的問題的電話。

Thanks, Jeff. (Operator Instructions) Thank you for your cooperation. And with that, the operator will now open up the line for questions. Operator?

謝謝，傑夫。 （操作說明）感謝您的合作。有了這個，運營商現在將打開問題線。操作員？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ryan Nash of Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的瑞安納什。

Maybe just to start on revenue growth, Steve. So it's obviously coming in much better than expected, and you're choosing to invest more to propel future growth. So I was just hoping maybe you can just talk a little bit about the additional investments that you're making across the company, whether it's in OpEx or in card member engagement. How much of this is offensive versus -- to drive revenue growth versus defensive? And then given the acceleration of investments that we're seeing through '22, could this position us for better revenue growth in the intermediate time frame?

也許只是從收入增長開始，史蒂夫。所以它顯然比預期的要好得多，你選擇投資更多來推動未來的增長。所以我只是希望你能談談你在整個公司進行的額外投資，無論是在運營支出還是在卡會員參與方面。其中有多少是進攻性的，而不是——推動收入增長而不是防禦性的？然後考慮到我們在 22 年看到的投資加速，這是否能讓我們在中間時間框架內實現更好的收入增長？

So I think everything that we're doing here is offensive. I mean you could argue that raising compensation is defensive. But I think you're going to -- you've seen compensation being raised across. So if I break out the categories, you're going to see OpEx up. And you see an OpEx up for 2 reasons. #1, we are investing a little bit more in -- from an operating perspective. But that investment -- the main investment from an operating perspective is you can't grow your billings 30%, and with the majority of those billings being grown by 30% by more transactions without having more people to be able to serve your customers, to be able to engage with them from a travel perspective.

所以我認為我們在這裡所做的一切都是冒犯性的。我的意思是你可以爭辯說提高薪酬是防禦性的。但我認為你會——你已經看到了薪酬的提高。因此，如果我分解類別，您將看到 OpEx 上升。您看到運營支出上升的原因有兩個。 #1，從運營的角度來看，我們正在投入更多資金。但是這項投資——從運營的角度來看，主要投資是你不能將你的賬單增長 30%，而且大多數賬單通過更多的交易增長了 30%，而沒有更多的人能夠為你的客戶提供服務，能夠從旅行的角度與他們互動。

And you have to remember, one of the huge differentiating factors that we have in our business model is our ability to serve our customers when and where they need to be served. And as you get more and more transactions, as you get more and more customers, you do have this step function increase. And so a lot of our operating expense growth has been done -- has been to the addition of people, which is not maybe a popular topic right now that people are talking about, but we're adding people. We're not subtracting people from our business. And we're adding people to make sure that we can continue the level of service that we had. And I don't mind doing that, especially in a growth environment, which is what we're expecting.

而且您必須記住，我們在業務模式中擁有的巨大差異化因素之一是我們能夠在客戶需要的時間和地點為他們提供服務。而且隨著您獲得越來越多的交易，隨著您獲得越來越多的客戶，您確實會增加此步驟功能。因此，我們的很多運營費用增長已經完成 - 一直是增加人員，這可能不是人們現在談論的熱門話題，但我們正在增加人員。我們不會從我們的業務中減少人員。我們正在增加人員以確保我們能夠繼續我們擁有的服務水平。而且我不介意這樣做，尤其是在我們所期望的增長環境中。

Look, you're also seeing wage increase, and you have to pay more to keep your best talent. And so we will do that. That is sure (inaudible) not to do that, and we will continue to do that.

看，你也看到工資上漲，你必須付出更多才能留住你最好的人才。所以我們會這樣做。肯定（聽不清）不會這樣做，我們將繼續這樣做。

From a marketing perspective, I've been doing this for a number of years now. And one of the things that you hear us say is we have lots and lots of good investment opportunities. And to let those investment opportunities go by the Board because, we thought we might have spent $5 billion, but maybe it will be $5.2 billion, whatever, that's shortsighted because we're running the company for the longer term.

從營銷的角度來看，我已經這樣做了很多年了。你聽到我們說的其中一件事是我們有很多很多好的投資機會。讓董事會放棄這些投資機會，因為我們認為我們可能已經花費了 50 億美元，但也許會是 52 億美元，無論如何，這是短視的，因為我們正在長期經營公司。

So I would say that the investments that we're making -- and additional investments in technology are truly all longer -- all thinking about the long term here.

所以我想說，我們正在進行的投資 - 以及對技術的額外投資確實更長 - 都在這裡考慮長期。

As far as revenue goes for next year, look, we're building up momentum. But I think when we came out and said we were going to grow 18% to 20% this year, there was probably some skepticism. And now we're coming out and saying we're going to go 23% to 25%, which is going to put the level of revenue at the end of this year obviously higher than what we thought. We have a plan to get us to -- in 2024 at 10% plus revenue growth on a sustainable basis, which means in 2023, we'll certainly exceed 10%. What that number will actually be? I don't know sitting here right now. I don't know. But I can tell you it will be on our growth trajectory. And as long as we have good revenue opportunities and as long as we can continue to grow this business, I will continue to invest. And that's where we are.

就明年的收入而言，看，我們正在建立勢頭。但我認為，當我們站出來說我們今年將增長 18% 到 20% 時，可能會有一些懷疑。現在我們出來說我們將達到 23% 到 25%，這將使今年年底的收入水平明顯高於我們的預期。我們有一個計劃讓我們在 2024 年實現 10% 的收入增長，這意味著在 2023 年，我們肯定會超過 10%。這個數字實際上是多少？我不知道現在坐在這裡。我不知道。但我可以告訴你，這將是我們的成長軌跡。只要我們有良好的收入機會，只要我們能夠繼續發展這項業務，我就會繼續投資。這就是我們所在的地方。

And as Jeff said, we've decided not to -- and I think it's really important. We've decided not to raise our earning -- our EPS guidance because of the uncertainty with CECL, which, quite honestly, we don't have a lot of control over. And so for us to sit here today and say, hey, look, let's just raise it to then come back in the third quarter or the fourth quarter and say, hey, we had to drop it, it's just -- it's fool hearted. But the revenue, it's what we see. And so when we're asked questions about, what do you think about the economy and you see a slowdown? If I was thinking there was a slowdown in the next couple of quarters, I wouldn't be sitting here raising revenue to 23% to 25%. So that's how I think about it.

正如傑夫所說，我們決定不這樣做——我認為這非常重要。由於 CECL 的不確定性，我們決定不提高我們的收益——我們的每股收益指引，老實說，我們對此沒有太多控制權。所以我們今天坐在這裡說，嘿，看，讓我們把它舉起來，然後在第三季度或第四季度回來，然後說，嘿，我們不得不放棄它，這只是 - 它是愚蠢的。但是收入，這就是我們所看到的。因此，當我們被問到有關經濟的問題時，您如何看待經濟放緩？如果我認為接下來幾個季度會放緩，我就不會坐在這裡將收入提高到 23% 到 25%。所以我就是這麼想的。

The next question is coming from Sanjay Sakhrani of KBW.

下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

T&E was a big driver of the upside. And I think, Jeff, you mentioned there's been further strength in July, which makes sense given we're moving into the heart of the summer months. Are you guys concerned this is sort of a pull forward, and you see a slowdown thereafter? And maybe that ties into what we saw in corporate T&E because that also moved up quite a bit. Where do you think the new normal shakes out?

T&E 是上漲的一大推動力。我認為，傑夫，你提到 7 月份的實力進一步增強，考慮到我們正在進入夏季的中心地帶，這是有道理的。你們是否擔心這有點向前推進，然後你會看到放緩？也許這與我們在公司 T&E 中看到的情況有關，因為這也有很大的提升。你認為新常態在哪裡動搖？

So if you look at where we are right now, and yes, we're at 100 -- we're at 8% growth over 2019. And that's not really a big number when you think about it. When you think about 8% growth over 2019 from a T&E perspective, and you think about sort of airline prices, you think about some of the inflation built in, I'd say there's more room to run on T&E. And when you disaggregate sort of T&E, and you look at it, and you see that the consumer is running sort of 38% above and you've got international consumer running only 8% above and you got SME running probably 8% above and corporate travel is only 60% of what it was in 2019, I wouldn't call out a pull forward. And when I look at my bookings, my future bookings in my consumer business, they're strong.

因此，如果您看看我們現在的情況，是的，我們已經達到了 100 - 我們在 2019 年的增長率為 8%。當您考慮它時，這並不是一個很大的數字。當您從 T&E 的角度考慮 2019 年 8% 的增長，並且您考慮某種航空公司的價格時，您會考慮一些內置的通貨膨脹，我會說 T&E 有更多的運行空間。當你分解 T&E 類型時，你看一下，你會發現消費者的運行率高出 38%，而國際消費者的運行率僅高出 8%，而中小企業的運行率可能高出 8%，企業旅行只是 2019 年的 60%，我不會呼籲向前推進。當我查看我的預訂，我在消費業務中的未來預訂時，它們很強大。

And then when you get -- then you sort of disaggregate and you go below those numbers, and you look and you say, okay, what's really driving it? And you see a tremendous growth, right? We're seeing a tremendous growth, like 48% growth in restaurant. Lodging is huge. Airline is way up. But lodging and airlines are still below 2019 levels in aggregate. So -- and the airline industry is probably only about 85%, 90% of their capacity. And they have some staffing issues and what have you, and they're sort of canceling. So I don't think this is a pull-forward at all. I think there's a huge pent-up demand, obviously, to get out and travel and see the world or see anybody at this particular point in time. But no, I'm not really concerned about a pullback because I don't think we've gotten to a normal level yet. I really don't believe we've gotten to a normal level of T&E. So now we're going to see 90% year-over-year growth rates, no. But I look at absolute aggregate numbers, and I can't get too focused on just the growth rates. We're not at a normal level of T&E yet in our business.

然後當你得到 - 然後你分解然後你低於這些數字，你看著然後說，好吧，真正驅動它的是什麼？你看到了巨大的增長，對吧？我們看到了巨大的增長，比如餐廳增長了 48%。住宿很大。航空公司漲價了。但總體而言，住宿和航空公司仍低於 2019 年的水平。所以——航空業可能只佔其運力的 85%、90%。他們有一些人事問題，你有什麼問題，他們有點取消。所以我認為這根本不是一個前行。我認為有一個巨大的被壓抑的需求，顯然，出去旅行，看看這個世界或在這個特定的時間點見任何人。但是不，我並不真正擔心回調，因為我認為我們還沒有達到正常水平。我真的不相信我們已經達到了正常的 T&E 水平。所以現在我們將看到 90% 的年增長率，不。但我看的是絕對總數，我不能太專注於增長率。我們的業務還沒有達到正常的 T&E 水平。

The next question is coming from Betsy Graseck of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

Yes. It's really great, great results here. I wanted to dig in a little bit on how you're thinking about the loan growth on the SME side. I know that's been accelerating here. Just give us a sense as to where pockets of opportunity are and how you would flex if there was a slowdown?

是的。這裡真的很棒，很棒的結果。我想深入了解您如何看待中小企業方面的貸款增長。我知道這裡一直在加速。讓我們了解一下機會在哪裡，如果經濟放緩，您將如何靈活調整？

Look, we're -- our stated goal for our SME business is be the working capital provider for small businesses. And so I think that what we're trying to do is to be able to provide liquidity to them using cards. We've got some short-term working capital loans. We've got some shorter-term loans. And they're taking advantage of it.

看，我們是——我們對中小企業業務的既定目標是成為小企業的營運資金提供者。所以我認為我們正在嘗試做的是能夠使用卡為他們提供流動性。我們有一些短期營運資金貸款。我們有一些短期貸款。他們正在利用它。

But I'll send you back to the pandemic. I mean when you look at our small business base, I think everybody was really concerned about how stressed this was because -- or how stressed this could be because of what the perception is the makeup of small businesses. And I've said this over and over again. When people think about small businesses, they think about restaurants and they think about small retail on Main Street. And it's much more than that.

但我會把你送回大流行。我的意思是，當您查看我們的小企業基礎時，我認為每個人都非常擔心這是因為 - 或者由於對小企業構成的看法而造成的壓力。我一遍又一遍地這麼說。當人們想到小企業時，他們會想到餐館，他們會想到大街上的小型零售店。它遠不止於此。

And so I think that -- and you saw how we performed. I mean our credit metrics performed brilliantly through the pandemic. And we've always grown in the last few years a little bit -- well, pre-pandemic, we've always grown faster than the market. We have a very low share of our small businesses lending volume relative to their spending volume. I mean we probably have over 40% of their spending volume, but we have less than maybe 20% of the land. So there is opportunity, and we will go after this opportunity the same way we go after everything else, in a very measured, analytical and risk-adjusted way. And so we're not trying to grow crazily. We are just providing our customers with what they need. Having said that, I think you've seen our ability to pivot, and if need be, we will pivot again. But what I do really love about our small business base, not only that it continues to grow, but it is so diverse across so many different types of industries, and that's really, really, really important.

所以我認為——你看到了我們的表現。我的意思是我們的信用指標在大流行期間表現出色。在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在增長一點點——嗯，在大流行之前，我們的增長速度總是快於市場。相對於他們的支出量，我們在小企業貸款量中所佔的份額非常低。我的意思是，我們可能擁有他們 40% 以上的支出，但我們擁有的土地可能不到 20%。所以有機會，我們將像追求其他一切一樣追求這個機會，以一種非常衡量、分析和風險調整的方式。所以我們並沒有試圖瘋狂地成長。我們只是為客戶提供他們需要的東西。話雖如此，我認為您已經看到了我們的轉型能力，如果需要，我們將再次轉型。但我真的很喜歡我們的小企業基礎，不僅因為它繼續增長，而且在這麼多不同類型的行業中如此多樣化，這真的、真的、真的很重要。

Our next question is coming from Bob Napoli of William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Bob Napoli。

Also congratulate you on a super strong numbers. Really great to see. I guess maybe a question on network coverage, one of your key areas of focus and incremental investment. And just maybe any update on how you're performing versus your plan on network expansion. Either kind of -- obviously, international seems like where you have the most opportunity from a network expansion. Any thoughts on or any metrics you can give on international and your thoughts on where your coverage should be internationally over the long term?

也祝賀你獲得了超強的數字。真的很高興看到。我想可能是關於網絡覆蓋的問題，這是您關注和增量投資的關鍵領域之一。以及關於您的表現與您的網絡擴展計劃的任何更新。無論哪種——顯然，國際似乎是您從網絡擴展中獲得最大機會的地方。您對國際範圍的任何想法或任何指標，以及您對長期國際覆蓋範圍的想法？

Yes. Look, I mean, from a U.S. perspective, we continue to remain in parity coverage, and as we -- virtual parity coverage. And as we said, it doesn't mean you're not going to run into somebody that doesn't accept the card now and again. But usually, it's -- when we do that, we're able to sign them up because it's sort of old news in terms of what the rates are and how we -- and so forth. So I'm not really can -- I should say, I'm not concerned about the U.S. But I like where we are in the U.S. and I like our approach to the U.S.

是的。看，我的意思是，從美國的角度來看，我們繼續保持平價覆蓋，並且我們 - 虛擬平價覆蓋。正如我們所說，這並不意味著您不會一次又一次地遇到不接受該卡的人。但通常情況下，當我們這樣做時，我們能夠註冊他們，因為就費率和我們的方式而言，這是一種舊新聞 - 等等。所以我真的不能——我應該說，我不關心美國。但我喜歡我們在美國的位置，我喜歡我們對美國的態度。

From international, I think we've been really, really, really clear. We've been focusing on priority cities and continuing to drive those numbers higher, and those continue to do well. We've probably signed well over 3 million merchants this year, which is -- I think we're on pace to sign as many as we did last year from an international perspective. And we'll continue to provide information, not on a quarterly basis, but on an as-needed basis to show you that the progress that we're making. But we're really pleased with the progress that we're making in our priority cities. And that doesn't mean we're not focused on signing every merchant that doesn't accept the card. We do. But we think it's more important to sign those merchants where card members actually are. And that's why the priority cities and the priority countries are so important for us. And we feel really good about it. And you only have to look at the international spending to say, is it really working? And when you look at sort of our international spending this year, it's up higher than our consumer spending year-over-year for this quarter. So it's a big driver for growth for us.

在國際上，我認為我們已經非常非常非常清楚。我們一直專注於重點城市，並繼續將這些數字推高，並且這些城市繼續表現良好。今年我們可能已經簽署了超過 300 萬商戶，從國際角度來看，我認為我們正在努力簽署與去年一樣多的協議。我們將繼續提供信息，不是每季度一次，而是根據需要向您展示我們正在取得的進展。但我們對我們在優先城市取得的進展感到非常滿意。這並不意味著我們不專注於簽署每個不接受該卡的商家。我們的確是。但我們認為更重要的是簽約那些卡會員實際所在的商戶。這就是為什麼優先城市和優先國家對我們如此重要。我們對此感覺非常好。你只需要看看國際支出就可以說，它真的有效嗎？當你看一下我們今年的國際支出時，它比本季度的消費者支出同比增長要高。因此，這對我們來說是增長的一大動力。

The next question is coming from Mark DeVries of Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊的 Mark DeVries。

I had a question for Steve about the 48% growth in Millennial and Gen Zs. I assume it's normal for the younger generations to have stronger growth, just as a combination of what I assume are kind of stronger new account acquisitions and also just the ramping of spend as they age and their incomes grow. Can you give us a sense of what the breakdown is in that 48% between new account acquisition and then actual organic spend on an individual account basis? I know you indicated that they are spending more than previous newcomers. But any sense of kind of dimensionalizing that, how that compares? And then just finally on comparing across the different cohorts. Kind of how -- what your market share is for these newer cohorts compared to Gen X and boomers at points in their age?

我有一個關於千禧一代和 Z 世代增長 48% 的問題要問史蒂夫。我認為年輕一代擁有更強勁的增長是正常的，就像我認為的更強的新賬戶獲取以及隨著他們年齡和收入增長而增加支出的組合一樣。您能否讓我們了解新帳戶獲取與個人帳戶實際有機支出之間的 48% 的細分是什麼？我知道你表示他們比以前的新來者花費更多。但是任何一種維度化的感覺，比較如何？然後最後只是比較不同的群組。怎麼樣 - 與 X 一代和嬰兒潮一代相比，這些新群體的市場份額是多少？

Yes. So we don't really get into all of that either in our release or talk. But let me give you a couple of points. When we look at sort of how we're getting card member spending, we really look at share of wallet. Share of wallet is really important for us. And from Millennials and Gen Zs, we're getting a higher share of their wallets off the bat. That's key. Because what happens is, with a lot of our boomers and so forth, and especially our boomers, they were used to an American Express that was accepted in a limited universe. Our Gen Z and our Millennials are used to an American Express that's really accepted everywhere. And so we're able to penetrate their wallets more right out of the gate because, number one, they're more card savvy, and they tend to use no cash. And they're more value proposition savvy, and they tend to figure out how to utilize the card in the best way for them. And so we're getting a higher percentage of their wallet. As they grow, as their wallets grow, as they progress through life, our aim is to continue to keep that wallet share. And that's a big deal. Plus, as you acquire Gen Zs and Millennials, they tend to have a longer runway or tenure with the card product. As far as the 48% growth and breaking it out sort of -- I mean, really what you're asking for is same-store sales versus new store sales. I don't really have that at the tip of my fingertips here.

是的。所以我們並沒有在我們的發布或談話中真正涉及到所有這些。但讓我給你幾點。當我們查看我們如何獲得卡會員消費時，我們真正關注的是錢包份額。錢包份額對我們來說真的很重要。從千禧一代和 Z 世代來看，我們從他們的錢包中獲得了更高的份額。這是關鍵。因為發生的事情是，對於我們的許多嬰兒潮一代等等，尤其是我們的嬰兒潮一代，他們已經習慣了在有限的宇宙中被接受的美國運通。我們的 Z 世代和千禧一代已經習慣了美國運通，這種美國運通在任何地方都能被真正接受。因此，我們能夠更直接地從他們的錢包中取出，因為第一，他們更精通信用卡，而且他們往往不使用現金。他們更精通價值主張，他們傾向於找出如何以最適合他們的方式使用卡片。因此，我們從他們的錢包中獲得了更高的百分比。隨著他們的成長，隨著他們的錢包的增長，隨著他們在生活中的進步，我們的目標是繼續保持他們的錢包份額。這是一件大事。此外，當您獲得 Z 世代和千禧一代時，他們往往會在卡片產品上擁有更長的時間或使用期限。至於 48% 的增長和突破——我的意思是，你真正要求的是同店銷售與新店銷售。我真的沒有觸手可及的。

Yes. We don't disclose the exact numbers, Mark. But we do pull it apart, just like you described. And we certainly have made the point that a disproportionate share of our new account acquisitions are going to that Millennial and Gen Z demographic. But then when you break out, just to Steve's raised the same-store sales, it is also the fastest-growing demographic on a same-store sales basis. So both contribute, both the same-store sales effect and the fact that they are disproportionate, and our new customers.

是的。我們不會透露確切的數字，馬克。但我們確實把它拆開，就像你描述的那樣。我們當然已經指出，我們新客戶獲取的不成比例的份額將流向千禧一代和 Z 世代人口。但是當你爆發的時候，僅僅以史蒂夫的同店銷售額上升，它也是同店銷售額增長最快的人群。因此，兩者都做出了貢獻，包括同店銷售效應和它們不成比例的事實，以及我們的新客戶。

The next question is coming from Dominick Gabriele of Oppenheimer.

下一個問題來自奧本海默的 Dominick Gabriele。

Great. Obviously, you're reporting incredibly strong recovery spending numbers. If you just think about the spending cycle and inflation boosting nominal PCE versus real PCE, how should we think about the effects on your high-end consumer base versus the average U.S. consumer in terms of their susceptibility to a spending slowdown? And perhaps, why could this customer base that you have act differently versus the average consumer in the next spending cycle? And I'm just talking about total spending, if you -- if that works.

偉大的。顯然，您報告的複蘇支出數字令人難以置信。如果您只考慮支出週期和通脹提振名義 PCE 與實際 PCE，我們應該如何考慮高端消費者群與美國普通消費者對支出放緩的易感性的影響？也許，為什麼您擁有的這個客戶群在下一個消費周期中的行為與普通消費者不同？我只是在談論總支出，如果你 - 如果這有效。

Well, I think the simple answer is they have more money. But when you look at sort of what's going on in the economy and the stock market going up and down, we've never really been tied to that. I mean -- and I've been here for forever, right, 35 years or so. And I've never seen a correlation between that. What I have seen a correlation between is sort of unemployment and people losing their jobs and not being able to pay their bills. And so that's potentially an issue down the road. But we're in a very crazy sort of environment, and Jeff called this out in his own remarks. I mean, we've got high inflation and low unemployment. And it's actually hard to hire people right now. And so yes, you're seeing some layoffs and some companies talking about slowing down their hiring and things like that. But it's not broad based and it's not broad scale at this particular point in time. And so I think as far as I look at this -- the cohort that we have, which is a small segment, right, of the U.S. population, but a very powerful segment of the U.S. population, you would have to see a huge credit crunch driven by unemployment, I think, for this cohort to be hit.

嗯，我認為簡單的答案是他們有更多的錢。但是，當您查看經濟中正在發生的事情以及股市上下波動時，我們從未真正與之相關。我的意思是——我已經在這裡待了很久，對，35 年左右。而且我從未見過兩者之間的相關性。我所看到的失業與人們失去工作並且無法支付賬單之間存在相關性。所以這可能是一個潛在的問題。但是我們處於一種非常瘋狂的環境中，傑夫在他自己的講話中指出了這一點。我的意思是，我們有高通脹和低失業率。而且現在真的很難招人。所以是的，你會看到一些裁員，一些公司正在談論放慢招聘速度之類的事情。但它的基礎並不廣泛，在這個特定的時間點也不是廣泛的。所以我認為，就我的看法而言——我們擁有的群體，是美國人口的一小部分，對，但在美國人口中是一個非常強大的部分，你必須看到巨大的功勞我認為，由失業驅動的緊縮對於這個群體會受到打擊。

The other thing I would say is, when we pull apart our numbers, this spending is not inflation-driven. And that's not to say there's not inflation in these numbers. But you have to remember that coming out at the end of last year, when no one wanted to talk about it, we had inflation in those numbers last year. So whether you look at 8% or 9% sort of spending inflation out there in the environment, it's not an 8% -- 8% or 9% benefit to our business because you do have a grow over.

我要說的另一件事是，當我們分開數據時，這種支出不是通貨膨脹驅動的。這並不是說這些數字沒有通貨膨脹。但是你必須記住，去年年底出來的時候，沒有人想談論它，去年我們的這些數字出現了通貨膨脹。因此，無論您查看環境中 8% 或 9% 的支出通脹，這對我們的業務來說都不是 8% - 8% 或 9% 的收益，因為您確實有增長。

But the most important thing for us is we're seeing an increase in transactions. And that's what's really driving our growth right now, is an increase in overall transactions in our business. And that's an important indicator for us. We look at not only transactions, but we look at transaction size. And then we look at that transaction size a little bit on a normalized basis as you take the effects of inflation out. And we've got real growth when you do that.

但對我們來說最重要的是我們看到交易量有所增加。這就是現在真正推動我們增長的原因，是我們業務整體交易量的增加。這對我們來說是一個重要指標。我們不僅關注交易，還關注交易規模。然後，當您消除通貨膨脹的影響時，我們會在標準化的基礎上稍微查看該交易規模。當你這樣做時，我們得到了真正的增長。

Yes. The only thing I'd add is that we have said consistently, a modest level of inflation, and I'd still use the word modest for where we are, absent a spike in unemployment, like Steve said, is generally net a positive thing for our business. It helps revenues a little bit. It puts a little pressure on cost. But it nets to a positive. And as long as the labor market stays where it is, that's why we feel pretty good about the guidance we've given you for the rest of the year.

是的。我唯一要補充的是，我們一直在說，適度的通貨膨脹水平，我仍然會用適度這個詞來形容我們所處的位置，沒有像史蒂夫所說的那樣失業率飆升，通常是一件好事為我們的業務。它對收入有所幫助。這對成本造成了一點壓力。但它帶來了積極的影響。只要勞動力市場保持原狀，這就是為什麼我們對我們在今年餘下時間為您提供的指導感到非常滿意的原因。

The next question is coming from Bill Carcache of Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

Could you speak to how much the competitive environment for high spending customers has intensified post pandemic, particularly as other issuers look to compete beyond cash rewards to provide their customers with greater experiential value by investing in things like airline lounge, travel portals and the like? And then I guess more specifically on -- and if I may just squeeze in on the acceleration in spending among large global corporates. Could you discuss which products are enjoying the greatest uplift there?

您能否談談大流行後高消費客戶的競爭環境在多大程度上加劇了，特別是當其他發行人希望通過投資航空公司休息室、旅遊門戶等方面為他們的客戶提供更大的體驗價值而不是現金獎勵時進行競爭？然後我更具體地猜測 - 如果我可以擠入大型全球企業的支出加速。你能討論一下哪些產品在那裡享受最大的提升嗎？

Yes. I mean, this environment has been a highly competitive environment since the financial crisis. And it hasn't really changed. Yes. I mean, invest in more things. I mean we've all raised the price of poker here a little bit. But we figure our competitors will continue to invest. We figure that our competitors will copy what we're doing. And that's why it's important for us to stay ahead. And so has it intensified? I mean we just work under the assumption, it's a highly competitive environment, and it will remain a highly competitive environment. And you're really talking about the U.S. consumer segment, but you've got high competition in small business. You've got high competition in various markets. You've got high competition in corporate card. But what we strive to do is put the best products and services out there. And that's worked out pretty well for us. And so yes, it requires a little bit more investment. It requires investment across the board. But in the long run, I think you just have to look at the results. And right now, we're acquiring more cards than we've ever acquired. But we've said this before. What's really important for us is that we're looking to acquire revenues and we're looking to acquire Billed business. We talk in terms of cards. But those cards are generating new Billed business and generating revenue for us, obviously, because we're raising our revenue guidance.

是的。我的意思是，自金融危機以來，這種環境一直是一個競爭激烈的環境。它並沒有真正改變。是的。我的意思是，投資更多的東西。我的意思是我們都稍微提高了撲克的價格。但我們認為我們的競爭對手將繼續投資。我們認為我們的競爭對手會復制我們正在做的事情。這就是為什麼保持領先對我們很重要。所以它加劇了嗎？我的意思是我們只是在這樣的假設下工作，這是一個競爭激烈的環境，而且它將保持一個高度競爭的環境。而且你真的在談論美國消費者領域，但你在小企業中競爭激烈。您在各個市場都面臨著激烈的競爭。你在公司卡方面競爭激烈。但我們努力做的是把最好的產品和服務放在那裡。這對我們來說效果很好。所以是的，它需要更多的投資。它需要全面投資。但從長遠來看，我認為你只需要看看結果。而現在，我們獲得的卡片比以往任何時候都多。但是我們之前已經說過了。對我們來說真正重要的是我們正在尋求獲得收入並且我們正在尋求收購 Billed 業務。我們用卡片來說話。但顯然，這些卡正在為我們創造新的計費業務並為我們創造收入，因為我們正在提高我們的收入指導。

As far as corporate, I'm not sure I really understand the question all that much. But we only have a corporate card. So -- and yes, companies are spending. But we're only at 60 -- our T&E is only at 60%. And Jeff, where are we overall on corporate card spending? I don't remember.

就公司而言，我不確定我是否真的完全理解這個問題。但我們只有一張公司卡。所以 - 是的，公司正在支出。但我們只有 60 歲——我們的 T&E 只有 60%。傑夫，我們在公司卡支出方面的總體情況如何？我不記得了。

It's a little higher because the travel never went down as much. So the overall number is at about closer to 80% pre-pandemic.

它有點高，因為旅行從來沒有下降那麼多。因此，總體數字接近大流行前的 80%。

So -- but we're not back yet. But you're seeing pockets of it and consultants are back out there on the road and bankers are back out there on the road. And I think people are having a lot more meetings. I know we had one in June, and it was hard to get conference room space for like 100 or 150 people. And even looking to book for next year for the same type of meeting, boy, people are out there booking 1 year, 1.5 years in advance. And I think that's good for the lodging business. It's good for the airline business. It's good for us. So that's kind of where it is.

所以——但我們還沒有回來。但是你看到了它的口袋，顧問們又回到了路上，銀行家們又回到了路上。我認為人們正在舉行更多會議。我知道我們在 6 月份有一個會議室，很難為 100 或 150 人提供會議室空間。甚至希望為明年預訂相同類型的會議，男孩，人們會提前 1 年，1.5 年預訂。我認為這對住宿業有好處。這對航空公司業務有利。這對我們有好處。所以這就是它的位置。

The next question is coming from Lisa Ellis of MoffetNathanson.

下一個問題來自 MoffetNathanson 的 Lisa Ellis。

Steve and Jeff, you've commented earlier on some of the near-term investments that you're making given the strong growth in top line you're seeing in wages and marketing, et cetera. Can you also comment a bit perhaps on some of the longer-term investments that you're leaning in on, kind of taking advantage of the strong growth in the business to be able to lean in and position Amex even better for the next sort of 3 to 5 years?

史蒂夫和傑夫，鑑於工資和營銷等領域收入的強勁增長，你們之前已經評論了你們正在進行的一些短期投資。您能否也評論一下您所依賴的一些長期投資，有點利用業務的強勁增長，以便能夠傾斜並為美國運通更好地定位下一種3到5年？

Yes. Well, I mean, we're always making -- there's always the balance between long-term investments and short-term investments. And we don't talk a lot about the long-term investments until they actually happen. But you have to invest in your technology, and we've done that. And I've talked about that before because we've been one of the only companies that have said, we're not taking step function changes in our technology investment because we've been investing in technology all along. We're constantly investing in value proposition.

是的。嗯，我的意思是，我們一直在做——長期投資和短期投資之間總是存在平衡。在長期投資真正發生之前，我們不會談論太多。但是你必須投資於你的技術，而我們已經做到了。我之前已經談到過這一點，因為我們是僅有的幾家說過，我們不會在我們的技術投資中進行階梯式功能改變的公司之一，因為我們一直在投資技術。我們不斷投資於價值主張。

And when people look at that, and we sit here on the phone here and we talk about it, they sounds like, okay, so what are you going to do to the Platinum card? Well, it's not the Platinum card. It's the 29 proprietary countries that we operate in, the small business cards that we operate in those countries and the corporate cards we operate in those countries and the co-brand cards we operate in those countries and the personal cards, Green, Gold, Platinum and (inaudible) . So we're constantly investing, and I think we use the Platinum Card in the U.S. either business or personal as a proxy for our overall investment, and that's not it, because we're investing in all our card products across the globe on an ongoing basis. You can't have product refreshes by just snapping your fingers and saying, hey, we're going to have a product refresh. This is months and months and months in the making and negotiations and partnerships and so forth. But look, we continue to invest in our lounge program. We continue to look at those things that add more value. I mean you've seen the expansion of things that we've done, whether it's checking accounts and debit cards for our consumers and our small businesses. And what we're trying to do is to create more stickiness and more reason to interact with American Express on an ongoing basis. I mean just look at sort of how the services around our card products have evolved over the last few years, whether that be from a small business perspective where we can meet a wide variety of reworking capital needs, banking needs and so forth, and then look at it from a consumer perspective and look at what we've done with resi, with over 30 million registered users on resi, and we have cards on file, a huge acquisition. So we'll continue to make those longer-term investments, but you'll continue to hear about them as they happen.

當人們看到它，我們坐在這裡打電話討論它時，他們聽起來像是，好吧，那麼你打算對白金卡做什麼？好吧，這不是白金卡。這是我們經營的 29 個專有國家、我們在這些國家經營的小型名片、我們在這些國家經營的公司卡、我們在這些國家經營的聯名卡以及個人卡、Green、Gold、Platinum和（聽不清）。所以我們一直在投資，我認為我們在美國使用白金卡作為我們整體投資的代表，無論是商業還是個人，但事實並非如此，因為我們在全球範圍內投資於我們所有的卡產品處於持續進行狀態。您不能通過打響指然後說，嘿，我們將進行產品更新來更新產品。這是幾個月和幾個月的製作、談判和夥伴關係等等。但是看，我們繼續投資於我們的休息室計劃。我們繼續關注那些增加更多價值的東西。我的意思是你已經看到我們所做的事情的擴展，無論是為我們的消費者和我們的小企業提供支票賬戶和借記卡。我們正在努力做的是創造更多的粘性和更多的理由與美國運通持續互動。我的意思是看看我們的卡產品在過去幾年中的服務是如何發展的，無論是從小企業的角度來看，我們可以滿足各種各樣的再循環資金需求、銀行需求等等，然後從消費者的角度來看，看看我們用 resi 做了什麼，在 resi 上有超過 3000 萬註冊用戶，我們有卡片存檔，這是一筆巨大的收購。因此，我們將繼續進行這些長期投資，但當它們發生時，您將繼續聽到它們的消息。

The next question is coming from Moshe Orenbuch of Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Moshe Orenbuch。

Great. And Steve, certainly note your comments that you're not anticipating a recession in the next couple of quarters given what you're seeing in your customer base. But could you just talk conceptually about how you think about account acquisition in terms of kind of new accounts, a high level of new accounts? Obviously, industry as a whole is still doing that. But clearly, less seasoned accounts are the ones that are always would carry somewhat more risk. And maybe talk about the things you do to kind of mitigate that or steps you would take if you saw that and the rates start to rise?

偉大的。史蒂夫，當然請注意您的評論，鑑於您在客戶群中看到的情況，您預計未來幾個季度不會出現衰退。但是，您能否從概念上談談您如何看待新客戶類型、高水平新客戶的客戶獲取？顯然，整個行業仍在這樣做。但顯然，經驗較少的賬戶總是會帶來更大的風險。也許談談你為減輕這種情況所做的事情，或者如果你看到這一點並且利率開始上升，你會採取哪些措施？

Well, let me maybe start, Moshe, by just reminding everyone of the highly analytical process we have for determining who we bring into membership in the franchise. And it's based on searching for that premium customer, whether they are a consumer or a small business. It's based on the vast amounts of data and history we have. And it's based on having very high financial cutoffs for who we allow into the franchise or not. And when you look at the outcome of that process right now, we are on average bringing in new customers who have higher credit qualities than when we saw pre-pandemic in 2019, who are showing much higher spending profiles and who are also carrying balances at a greater rate. So we feel really good about the people we're bringing into the franchise. And as you've heard Steve and I and Doug and others talk about, we also always, when we bring people in model their results, assuming there will be a recession. I don't know when there will be a recession, but there will be. And so we build a through-the-cycle view of the economics right into our upfront calculation of whether we think it's a good idea or not to bring a given customer into the franchise at a given level of marketing spend.

好吧，Moshe，讓我先提醒大家我們為確定我們將誰帶入特許經營權而進行的高度分析過程。它基於尋找優質客戶，無論他們是消費者還是小型企業。它基於我們擁有的大量數據和歷史。它基於對我們是否允許進入特許經營權的人有非常高的財務限制。當您現在查看該過程的結果時，我們平均會引入新客戶，這些客戶的信用質量比我們在 2019 年大流行前看到的情況要高，他們的支出狀況要高得多，而且餘額也達到了更大的比率。因此，我們對我們引入特許經營權的人感覺非常好。正如你已經聽到史蒂夫和我以及道格和其他人談論的那樣，當我們讓人們對他們的結果進行建模時，我們也總是假設會出現衰退。我不知道什麼時候會出現衰退，但一定會出現。因此，我們在預先計算我們是否認為以給定的營銷支出水平將給定的客戶帶入特許經營權是否是一個好主意時，建立了一個貫穿整個週期的經濟學觀點。

Yes. And the other thing I'd say is that changes -- that can change daily. That can change weekly. Those criteria could change monthly. It all depends on how we're looking at and what our models are showing and what we're feeling. The other reality is we could lower our thresholds, spend even a lot more money. But there's that balance that you have and that balance of making sure that we're growing, the bottom line is in an appropriate fashion and also making sure that we have a higher quality consumer and small business as part of our franchise. But it is something that's been developed over many, many years. And it's not static. I mean I think that's the key point. This thing is not static. And we continue to adjust it and modify it.

是的。我要說的另一件事是變化——每天都在變化。這可以每週改變。這些標準可能會每月更改。這一切都取決於我們如何看待、我們的模型展示了什麼以及我們的感受。另一個現實是我們可以降低門檻，花更多的錢。但是，您擁有這種平衡，並且確保我們正在成長，底線以適當的方式進行，並確保我們擁有更高質量的消費者和小型企業作為我們特許經營權的一部分。但它是經過多年開發的。而且它不是靜態的。我的意思是我認為這是關鍵點。這件事不是靜態的。我們繼續對其進行調整和修改。

Steve, the other thing I would add, and I'm going to quote you, is we run the company for the long term. We make these decisions on a through the cycle basis. There will be a recession at some point. I don't know when. But the thing about recessions is they're always followed by a recovery. And we're running the company to achieve the highest possible sustainable level of long-term growth. And we think that the process we have and the analytics we have for bringing people into the franchise are very consistent with that.

史蒂夫，我要補充的另一件事，我要引用你的話，是我們長期經營公司。我們在整個週期的基礎上做出這些決定。在某個時候會出現衰退。我不知道什麼時候。但關於衰退的問題是，它們總是伴隨著復甦。我們經營公司是為了實現盡可能高的可持續長期增長水平。我們認為我們擁有的流程和將人們帶入特許經營權的分析與此非常一致。

The next question is coming from Chris Donat of Piper Sandler.

下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 Chris Donat。

I wanted to dig -- try to dig a little deeper on the Travel & Entertainment recovery and the Slide 23 you had and revisit the question about possible pull forward. I heard the commentary around bookings, and so that seems good for visibility for airlines and lodging. What I'm wondering about is, should there be any reason to be concerned around restaurant spending, which has been really strong? And is restaurant spending highly correlated with lodging and airlines so maybe we don't need to worry about it? Or just if you're seeing anything that could be a cause for concern and maybe future pullback in restaurants as...

我想深入挖掘 - 嘗試更深入地挖掘旅遊和娛樂復甦以及您擁有的幻燈片 23，並重新審視有關可能向前推進的問題。我聽到了有關預訂的評論，因此這似乎對航空公司和住宿的知名度有好處。我想知道的是，是否有任何理由擔心餐廳支出，這真的很強勁？餐廳支出是否與住宿和航空公司高度相關，所以也許我們不需要擔心？或者只是如果你看到任何可能引起關注的事情，或者未來餐館的回調……

The only thing I would say is that if restaurant spending is really highly correlated with lodging and airlines, you're going to expect it to go up. But I think, look, I mean, anybody that's been to a restaurant, prices are a little bit higher because they're -- they got wages and they got fluid costs and so forth. But look, from my perspective, restaurants really -- sort of a lot of them change their business models during the pandemic because restaurants that weren't doing takeout do take out. And so people are eating out a lot more, and they're spending more time at restaurants and ordering for restaurants. So no, I really don't think it's highly correlated at all. And in fact, if you took restaurant out, and we just said travel, and travel being defined as car rental, lodging and air, we're not back yet, right? What's pulling T&E over the finish line here to go past that 2019 is truly restaurants. So if anything, as people travel more, you might see more restaurant spending or the other side of that is, well, you won't see more restaurant spending because now it lead to different locations. So I don't think it's -- I don't think a pullback here will really hurt restaurants all that much.

我唯一想說的是，如果餐廳支出真的與住宿和航空公司高度相關，那麼你會期望它會上升。但我認為，聽著，我的意思是，任何去過餐館的人，價格都會高一點，因為他們——他們有工資，他們有流動成本等等。但是，從我的角度來看，餐館真的——在大流行期間，他們中的很多人改變了他們的商業模式，因為不做外賣的餐館確實外賣。因此，人們外出就餐的次數增加了，他們花更多的時間在餐館和為餐館點餐。所以不，我真的不認為它是高度相關的。事實上，如果你把餐廳拿出來，我們只是說旅行，旅行被定義為汽車租賃、住宿和航空，我們還沒有回來，對吧？將 T&E 拉過終點線以超越 2019 年的是真正的餐廳。因此，如果有的話，隨著人們旅行的增多，您可能會看到更多的餐廳支出，或者另一方面，您不會看到更多的餐廳支出，因為現在它會導致不同的地點。所以我不認為——我認為這裡的回調不會真的對餐館造成太大的傷害。

The next question is coming from Rick Shane of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Rick Shane。

When I think about the numbers, 2 things stand out. One is the loan growth and the other is obviously the strong penetration for Millennial and Gen Z card growth. I am curious if -- as Millennials and Gen Z customers are taking cards, if those are being delivered with additional features enabled on borrow? Or are there behavioral factors that are causing your younger demographic to borrow more?

當我想到這些數字時，有兩件事很突出。一是貸款增長，二是千禧一代和 Z 世代卡增長的強勁滲透。我很好奇——當千禧一代和 Z 世代客戶正在使用卡片時，如果這些卡片在藉用時啟用了附加功能？還是有一些行為因素導致您的年輕人借更多錢？

Well, maybe I'll start, Steve. So first, we have moved over the last couple of years, Rick, to add to the majority of our charge products a pay over time capability. For existing card members, that phases in a variety of ways. For new card members, that capability is on as it is as they get the card. So I do think that has some impact on our results. There also is a demographic feature, as I talked about earlier. If you look at who we're bringing into the franchise now, and there is a skew towards the Millennials and Gen Zs, they are higher spending, higher credit quality. And there is a propensity to carry balances that is a little higher than what we see in the older demographic.

好吧，也許我會開始，史蒂夫。因此，首先，我們在過去幾年中採取了行動，瑞克，為我們的大多數收費產品增加了隨時間付費的功能。對於現有的卡會員來說，這會以多種方式分階段進行。對於新卡會員，該功能在他們獲得卡時即處於啟用狀態。所以我確實認為這對我們的結果有一些影響。正如我之前談到的，還有一個人口統計特徵。如果你看看我們現在將誰帶入特許經營權，並且傾向於千禧一代和 Z 世代，他們的支出更高，信用質量更高。並且有一種比我們在老年人口中看到的餘額略高的傾向。

Yes. And they also tend to use our Pay It Plan It feature a little bit more, which is -- and I'll use these words, buy now, pay later, but on the back end as opposed to a point of sale. I mean, they can go on to their statement and decide, look, for this particular charge, I'm going to pay it in 6 installments, and I'm going to pay it at $100 a month. But I'm going to pay the rest of my balance in full. So I think that ability of looking at your statement, deciding which things you might want to pay in an installment, deciding which thing you might want to use Pay with Points to pay, deciding which thing you may want to revolve and then deciding which things you want to pay in full is a pretty good feature of the product. And so when you look at meeting somebody's entire payment needs, boy, that kind of does it in one-stop shopping.

是的。他們還傾向於使用我們的 Pay It Plan It 功能更多一點，那就是——我會用這些詞，現在購買，稍後付款，但在後端而不是銷售點。我的意思是，他們可以繼續他們的聲明並決定，看，對於這項特殊費用，我將分 6 期支付，每月支付 100 美元。但我將全額支付剩餘的餘額。因此，我認為能夠查看您的聲明，決定您可能想要分期支付的東西，決定您可能想要使用積分支付的東西，決定您可能想要旋轉的東西，然後決定哪些東西你要全額付款是該產品的一個相當不錯的功能。因此，當您考慮滿足某人的全部付款需求時，男孩，這就是一站式購物。

The next question is coming from Mihir Bhatia of Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

I wanted to ask a little bit about just longer term, right? I mean I appreciate your comments about making investments now while the opportunity is available. But I was wondering just in the longer term, for example, in 2023, you've guided to longer -- higher than longer-term revenue growth in 2023. So will that also translate in higher than long-term EPS growth or higher than long-term PPNR growth? Or is there just so much wide space available for you, just the amount of growth opportunity that 2023 could also be another big investment year? Just trying to understand how you balance that, all this revenue upside you see versus the investment opportunities available to you.

我想問一些關於長期的問題，對吧？我的意思是，我很欣賞您對現在有機會進行投資的評論。但我想知道的是，從長遠來看，例如，在 2023 年，你已經指導了更長的 - 高於 2023 年的長期收入增長。那麼這也會轉化為高於長期每股收益增長或高於PPNR 的長期增長？或者是否有這麼多廣闊的空間可供您使用，僅僅是 2023 年也可能成為另一個大投資年的增長機會？只是想了解你如何平衡這一點，你看到的所有這些收入增長與你可用的投資機會。

Well, I can't resist by start -- by pointing out that, yes, Steve and I talked a lot about the heavy investments that we're making this year. We're also growing our pretax pre-provision profit by 27% this quarter, in line with the 31% revenue growth. Look, as Steve said earlier, we'll have to see. I think we feel really good about the revenue momentum we have. And so just mathematically, given our long-term sustainable goals and a steady-state environment for 2024 and beyond, I expect to be above that -- easily above the 10% level on revenue growth next year. How much? Don't know. We'll have to see. And that provides a pretty darn good platform for good earnings growth. All that said, it's only July 22. We haven't given you specific guidance for next year. And the wildcard from a GAAP EPS perspective in all this is the volatility that you've seen so much of in the last 10 quarters in the CECL credit reserves because we have good, I think, visibility and beliefs about the trajectory of our own business. But the consensus macroeconomic forecast and how it evolves is going to have a big influence on what we book for credit reserves.

好吧，我一開始就忍不住——指出，是的，史蒂夫和我談了很多關於我們今年進行的大量投資的事情。本季度，我們的稅前撥備利潤也增長了 27%，與 31% 的收入增長一致。看，正如史蒂夫之前所說，我們將不得不看到。我認為我們對我們擁有的收入勢頭感覺非常好。因此，就數學而言，鑑於我們的長期可持續目標和 2024 年及以後的穩定環境，我預計明年的收入增長將超過 10% 的水平。多少錢？不知道。我們得看看。這為良好的盈利增長提供了一個非常好的平台。話雖如此，這只是 7 月 22 日。我們還沒有給你明年的具體指導。從公認會計原則每股收益的角度來看，這一切的通配符是您在過去 10 個季度中看到的 CECL 信用儲備的波動性，因為我認為，我們對自己的業務軌蹟有很好的可見性和信念.但一致的宏觀經濟預測及其演變方式將對我們為信貸儲備預訂的金額產生重大影響。

But just think of how those 2 numbers that Jeff threw out, 31% revenue growth and 27% PPNR growth. Would you have felt better if it was 32%, and we decided not to invest? I wouldn't. And I think what's really important, and I'll take you back to Investor Day. This is a flywheel. Scale is important. Scale begets more scale. And not crazy scale, but scale with premium card members from a small business perspective and a consumer perspective that merchants want to see and merchants want to provide value to, which continues that strength in the flywheel. And that's one thing. As you know, we talked about, do you see more competition? The one thing that is really, really hard to replicate, and we haven't used these words, but this enclosed cycle that we have, otherwise known as the famous closed loop, the ability to have those merchants and have those card members and to be able to feed off one another from a value perspective is really, really critical. And the value that we're able to provide merchants with high spending card members and the value that those merchants are able to provide to our card members is really, really important. And so as we sit here and look at our business and look at it long term, what's really important is that growth and that sustainable growth. And again, throw all the noise out around CECL and credit reserve releases and bills and so forth. And if you focus on that number, well, 31% and 27% is pretty good. And so we feel really good about the level of investment that we've made in the business. And quite honestly, don't necessarily focus on any of those individual line items, but focus on the aggregate in what it's driving and the value it's creating. And if you're just going to measure value through a quarterly EPS growth, you're missing the point. What you need to measure value is on how sustainable your business model is over the long term. And all we're doing is enhancing our business model over the long term with these investments.

但是想想傑夫拋出的那兩個數字，31% 的收入增長和 27% 的 PPNR 增長。如果是 32%，而我們決定不投資，你會不會感覺更好？我不會。我認為真正重要的是，我會帶你回到投資者日。這是一個飛輪。規模很重要。規模產生更大的規模。不是瘋狂的規模，而是從小企業的角度和商家希望看到的消費者的角度，以及商家希望為其提供價值的高級卡會員的規模，這延續了飛輪的力量。這是一回事。如您所知，我們談到了，您是否看到更多競爭？一件非常非常難以復制的事情，我們沒有使用這些詞，但是我們擁有的這個封閉循環，也被稱為著名的閉環，擁有這些商家和擁有這些卡會員的能力，並能夠從價值的角度相互補充是非常非常關鍵的。我們能夠為商家提供高消費卡會員的價值以及這些商家能夠為我們的卡會員提供的價值非常非常重要。因此，當我們坐在這裡，審視我們的業務並從長遠來看，真正重要的是增長和可持續增長。再一次，把所有關於 CECL 和信用準備金釋放和賬單等的噪音都扔掉。如果你關注這個數字，那麼 31% 和 27% 就相當不錯了。因此，我們對我們在業務中的投資水平感到非常滿意。老實說，不一定要關注任何這些單獨的項目，而要關注它所驅動的總和以及它所創造的價值。如果你只是通過季度每股收益增長來衡量價值，那你就錯了。您需要衡量價值的是您的商業模式在長期內的可持續性。我們正在做的就是通過這些投資長期提升我們的商業模式。

Our final question will come from Don Fandetti of Wells Fargo.

我們的最後一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Don Fandetti。

Can you provide an update on B2B progress? Are you seeing small businesses accelerate their automation of accounts payable? And also, large corporates on the supplier side, are they accepting more cards?

您能否提供有關 B2B 進展的最新信息？您是否看到小型企業加快了應付賬款的自動化？此外，供應商方面的大公司，他們接受更多的卡嗎？

The short answer is yes. We don't -- we're not sharing all the statistics, but small businesses continue. When you look at our small business base, probably over 8% of their spending is B2B spending versus T&E spending. And we continue to see ACOM pay go up for us. Our partnerships continue to yield more value. We're seeing -- what Jeff talked about it, we're about 80% of where we were from a corporate card perspective, but yet only 60% from a travel perspective. So that's driven by more B2B. But it's not -- when you look at that automation of B2B, some of it is automation of existing business, especially in the small businesses. Some of it is growth. But it is still continues to be a long-term play. But you're seeing more suppliers take it. And we'll continue to work towards getting more acceptance and leveraging our flexible model here to be able to work with suppliers and our small businesses and our corporations to drive more acceptance and to drive more spend.

簡短的回答是肯定的。我們沒有——我們沒有分享所有的統計數據，但小企業仍在繼續。當您查看我們的小型企業基礎時，可能超過 8% 的支出是 B2B 支出與 T&E 支出。我們繼續看到 ACOM 為我們加薪。我們的合作夥伴關係繼續產生更多價值。我們看到 - Jeff 談到它，從公司卡的角度來看，我們大約是 80%，但從旅行的角度來看只有 60%。所以這是由更多的 B2B 驅動的。但它不是——當你看到 B2B 的自動化時，其中一些是現有業務的自動化，特別是在小型企業中。其中一些是增長。但它仍然是一個長期的遊戲。但是你看到更多的供應商接受它。我們將繼續努力獲得更多認可，並利用我們靈活的模式與供應商、我們的小企業和我們的公司合作，以推動更多的接受和推動更多的支出。

Great. With that, we will bring the call to an end. Thank you again for joining today's call and for your continued interest in American Express. The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions. Operator, back to you.

偉大的。這樣，我們將結束通話。再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議並感謝您對美國運通的持續關注。 IR 團隊將隨時為您解答任何後續問題。接線員，還給你。

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast replay will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.americanexpress.com shortly after the call. You can also access a digital replay of the call at (877) 660-6853 or (201) 612-7415, access code of 13729997 after 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time on July 22 through midnight, July 30. That will conclude our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，電話會議後不久，我們的投資者關係網站 ir.americanexpress.com 將提供網絡直播重播。您還可以在下午 1:00 後撥打 (877) 660-6853 或 (201) 612-7415 訪問電話的數字重播，訪問代碼為 13729997。東部時間 7 月 22 日至 7 月 30 日午夜。這將結束我們今天的電話會議。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。