美國運通 (AXP) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Express Q4 2021 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎參加美國運通 2021 年第四季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，今天的通話正在錄音中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Vivian Zhou. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給我們的主持人，投資者關係主管 Vivian Zhou 女士。請繼續。

Thank you, Alan, and thank you all for joining today's call. As a reminder, before we begin, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance. These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC.

謝謝你，艾倫，謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。提醒一下，在我們開始之前，今天的討論包含有關公司未來業務和財務業績的前瞻性陳述。這些是基於管理層當前的預期，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。可能導致實際結果與這些陳述產生重大差異的因素包含在今天的演示幻燈片和我們提交給 SEC 的報告中。

The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures. The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials as well as earnings materials for the prior periods we discussed. All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com.

今天的討論還包含非公認會計原則的財務措施。可比的 GAAP 財務指標包含在本季度的收益材料以及我們討論的前期收益材料中。所有這些都發佈在我們的網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上。

We will begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results; and then Jeff Campbell, Chief Financial Officer, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance. After that, we will move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Jeff.

今天我們將從董事長兼首席執行官史蒂夫·斯奎裡開始，他將首先發表一些關於公司進展和成果的評論；然後首席財務官 Jeff Campbell 將對我們的財務業績進行更詳細的審查。之後，我們將與史蒂夫和傑夫一起進行關於結果的問答環節。

With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

有了這個，讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Vivian, and good morning, everyone. As you saw in our press release a short while ago, we reported strong quarterly and full year revenue growth and earnings for 2021, thanks to the efforts of our dedicated and talented colleagues around the globe. We also provided revenue and EPS guidance for 2022, and we announced a new growth plan that resets our longer-term aspirations for revenue and EPS growth to levels that are higher than what we were delivering in the years before the pandemic.

謝謝，薇薇安，大家早上好。正如您在不久前在我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們報告了 2021 年強勁的季度和全年收入增長和收益，這要歸功於我們在全球範圍內敬業且才華橫溢的同事的努力。我們還提供了 2022 年的收入和每股收益指導，並宣布了一項新的增長計劃，將我們對收入和每股收益增長的長期目標重新設定為高於大流行前幾年的水平。

I want to spend my time today talking about why these results and our progress over the last few years has me excited about the future and our aspiration to deliver higher levels of sustainable profitable growth. As we've seen in our results for Q4 and the full year, the capabilities we've built over the past few years by investing in our customers, our brand and our talent are helping us drive share, scale and relevance that leads to profitable growth. And we believe that will continue as the global economy continues to improve.

今天我想花時間談談為什麼這些結果和我們在過去幾年中取得的進展讓我對未來和我們實現更高水平的可持續盈利增長的願望感到興奮。正如我們在第四季度和全年的業績中所看到的那樣，我們在過去幾年通過投資於客戶、品牌和人才而建立的能力正在幫助我們提高份額、規模和相關性，從而實現盈利生長。我們相信，隨著全球經濟的持續改善，這種情況將繼續下去。

Our strong performance across a number of key business metrics helped deliver revenue growth of 30% in the fourth quarter and 17% for the full year. Diluted EPS for the quarter was $2.18 and $10.02 for the full year. In the near term, we expect full year revenue growth to remain at elevated levels, reaching 18% to 20% in 2022, driven by the execution of our growth plan and the recovery tailwinds we anticipate from continued improvement in the macroeconomic environment. We expect EPS of between $9.25 and $9.65 in 2022.

我們在多項關鍵業務指標上的強勁表現幫助實現了第四季度 30% 的收入增長和全年 17% 的收入增長。本季度攤薄後每股收益為 2.18 美元，全年攤薄後每股收益為 10.02 美元。在短期內，我們預計全年收入增長將保持在較高水平，到 2022 年將達到 18% 至 20%，這得益於我們的增長計劃的執行以及我們預期宏觀經濟環境持續改善帶來的複蘇順風。我們預計 2022 年每股收益在 9.25 美元至 9.65 美元之間。

As we think about 2023, the continuation of the recovery tailwinds could drive revenue growth in the mid-teens, which, in turn, should provide a platform for mid-teens EPS growth. Looking further out, as we return to a more steady state economic environment, we aspire to achieve revenue growth in excess of 10% and EPS growth in the mid-teens under our new growth plan for 2024 and beyond.

當我們考慮到 2023 年時，復甦順風的持續可能會推動 10 歲左右的收入增長，而這反過來應該會為 10 歲左右的 EPS 增長提供一個平台。展望未來，隨著我們回到更穩定的經濟環境，我們渴望在 2024 年及以後的新增長計劃下實現超過 10% 的收入增長和 10 歲左右的每股收益增長。

We've learned a lot over the past few years that we believe will help us achieve our growth plan aspirations. The business imperatives and strategies we focused on pre pandemic, the decisions we made when COVID-19 first hit to protect our customers and colleagues and our pivot early in the recovery cycle to ramp up investments in a number of key areas all proved to be the right moves that have been good for our business.

在過去幾年中，我們學到了很多東西，我們相信這將有助於我們實現增長計劃的目標。我們在大流行前關注的業務需求和戰略、我們在 COVID-19 首次出現時為保護我們的客戶和同事而做出的決定，以及我們在恢復週期早期加大對多個關鍵領域的投資的支點，所有這些都被證明是對我們的業務有益的正確舉措。

Most importantly, our experience through this period has reinforced our conviction that investing strategically in our customers' brand and talent is absolutely critical to driving high levels of growth. We've seen that play out in the results we delivered throughout 2021. Our fourth quarter performance continued the trends we saw all year in a number of areas that are core to our growth over the long term.

最重要的是，我們在此期間的經歷更加堅定了我們的信念，即戰略性地投資於客戶的品牌和人才對於推動高水平的增長絕對至關重要。我們已經在 2021 年全年交付的業績中看到了這一點。我們第四季度的業績延續了我們全年在許多對我們長期增長至關重要的領域看到的趨勢。

Spending growth reached a record quarterly high, driven by continued increases in goods and services spending, which was 24% above pre-pandemic levels. Global Consumer goods and services spending in the quarter grew 26% versus 2019. And we saw continued robust growth in small business B2B spending, which increased 25% over Q4 2019 levels. Overall, T&E spending also continued to improve, reaching 82% of pre-pandemic levels, driven by stronger consumer travel spending.

在商品和服務支出持續增長的推動下，支出增長達到創紀錄的季度新高，比大流行前水平高出 24%。本季度全球消費品和服務支出與 2019 年相比增長了 26%。我們看到小企業 B2B 支出持續強勁增長，比 2019 年第四季度的水平增長了 25%。總體而言，在消費者旅行支出增加的推動下，差旅支出也繼續改善，達到大流行前水平的 82%。

Customer retention and satisfaction continue to be very strong and remained above pre-pandemic levels. For example, retention rates in Global Consumer are above 98%. And for the second year in a row and the 11th time in 15 years, we ranked first in J.D. Power's annual credit card satisfaction study of U.S. consumers. Credit performance also continued to be outstanding, with key metrics near historical lows. And our Card Members are building loan balances at a modest pace.

客戶保留率和滿意度仍然非常強勁，並保持在大流行前的水平之上。例如，全球消費者的保留率超過 98%。我們連續第二年和 15 年來第 11 次在 J.D. Power 的美國消費者年度信用卡滿意度研究中排名第一。信貸表現也繼續出色，關鍵指標接近歷史低點。我們的卡會員正在以適度的速度建立貸款餘額。

Customer engagement with our products, services and capabilities continued at high levels in the quarter. The strong engagement, which is fueled by our ongoing investments in value propositions, marketing and new digital services, is helping to drive the results I just spoke about in billings and loan growth as well as customer retention and satisfaction levels.

本季度，客戶對我們的產品、服務和能力的參與度繼續保持較高水平。我們在價值主張、營銷和新數字服務方面的持續投資推動了這種強大的參與，這有助於推動我剛才談到的賬單和貸款增長以及客戶保留和滿意度水平方面的成果。

Additionally, our customer-focused innovation strategy, which has driven increases in customer engagement, has continued to attract large numbers of new customers. New card acquisitions reached 2.7 million in Q4, driven by strong demand for our premium fee-based products, where we saw acquisitions nearly double year-over-year.

此外，我們以客戶為中心的創新戰略推動了客戶參與度的提高，繼續吸引了大量新客戶。受對我們優質收費產品強勁需求的推動，第四季度新卡收購量達到 270 萬張，我們看到收購量同比增長近一倍。

In Consumer, millennials and Gen Z customers are driving the growth in acquisitions, representing around 60% of the new accounts we acquired globally in 2021. In Commercial, Q4 closed out as one of the best years we've ever seen for U.S. SME new account acquisition.

在消費者領域，千禧一代和 Z 世代客戶正在推動收購的增長，占我們 2021 年在全球獲得的新客戶的約 60%。在商業領域，第四季度是我們所見過的美國新中小企業最好的年份之一帳戶獲取。

The momentum we generated throughout 2021 further strengthens our resolve to continue our focus on the strategic imperatives we laid out back in 2018: expanding our leadership position in the premium consumer space by providing a differentiated and ever-expanding range of services and lifestyle-focused value propositions, building on our strong leadership position in commercial payments by being the key provider of payments and working capital solutions for small and medium-sized businesses, expanding our merchant network globally to give our card members more places to use their cards and staying on the leading edge of technology and digital payment solutions to make American Express an essential part of our customers' digital lives.

我們在 2021 年產生的勢頭進一步堅定了我們繼續專注於 2018 年制定的戰略要務的決心：通過提供差異化且不斷擴大的服務範圍和以生活方式為中心的價值，擴大我們在高端消費領域的領導地位通過成為中小型企業支付和營運資金解決方案的主要供應商，鞏固我們在商業支付領域的強大領導地位，在全球範圍內擴展我們的商戶網絡，為我們的卡會員提供更多使用信用卡的地方，並留在領先的技術和數字支付解決方案，使美國運通成為我們客戶數字生活的重要組成部分。

We are entering 2022 in a position of strength. And based on the momentum with which we exited 2021 and the opportunities we see ahead, we feel very good about the future. We believe that continuing our strategy of investing at high levels in our customers' brand and talent as we implement our growth plan will position us well as we seek to achieve our growth aspirations in 2024 and beyond.

我們正以強勢的姿態進入 2022 年。基於我們退出 2021 年的勢頭和我們看到的未來機遇，我們對未來感覺非常好。我們相信，在我們實施增長計劃時，繼續我們對客戶品牌和人才進行高水平投資的戰略，將使我們在尋求在 2024 年及以後實現增長願望時處於有利地位。

I'll now turn it over to Jeff to provide more details on our performance for the fourth quarter and our expectations for the future. And after that, we'll take your questions. Thank you. Jeff?

我現在將把它交給傑夫，以提供有關我們第四季度業績的更多細節以及我們對未來的期望。在那之後，我們會回答你的問題。謝謝你。傑夫?

Well, thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. It's great to be here to talk about our fourth quarter and full year 2021 results, the ambitious new growth plan that Steve just talked about and what it all means for 2022 and beyond.

好吧，謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早上好。很高興能在這裡談論我們的第四季度和 2021 年全年業績、史蒂夫剛剛談到的雄心勃勃的新增長計劃以及這對 2022 年及以後意味著什麼。

You see the growth momentum that Steve just discussed in our summary financials on Slide 2, with fourth quarter revenues of $12.1 billion, up 31%, and full year revenues of $42.4 billion, up 17%, both on an FX-adjusted basis. In understanding our full year net income of $8.1 billion and earnings per share $10.02, I would point out that we had around $3.5 billion of significant impacts from items that we do not expect to repeat in the same magnitude going forward, including a $2.5 billion credit reserve release benefit in provision as well as a few sizable net gains on equity investments.

您會看到史蒂夫剛剛在幻燈片 2 的財務摘要中討論的增長勢頭，第四季度收入為 121 億美元，增長 31%，全年收入為 424 億美元，增長 17%，均經外匯調整後。在了解我們 81 億美元的全年淨收入和 10.02 美元的每股收益時，我會指出，我們預計未來不會以相同幅度重複的項目對我們產生了約 35 億美元的重大影響，包括 25 億美元的信貸準備金釋放收益以及一些可觀的股權投資淨收益。

Getting into a more detailed look at our results, let's start with volumes. You'll notice in the several views of volumes on Slides 3 through 9 that we continued to show 2021 volume trends on both a year-over-year basis and relative to 2019. There are a few key insights that I would highlight across these slides that strengthen our conviction in the investment strategy we have been focused on to deliver our new growth plan.

更詳細地了解我們的結果，讓我們從數量開始。您會注意到，在幻燈片 3 至 9 上的多個成交量視圖中，我們繼續展示 2021 年同比和相對於 2019 年的成交量趨勢。我將在這些幻燈片中強調一些關鍵見解這加強了我們對我們一直專注於實施新增長計劃的投資戰略的信念。

To start, we saw record levels of spending on our network in both the fourth quarter and full year 2021, with total network volumes and Billed business volumes both up more than 10% relative to 2019 on an FX-adjusted basis in the fourth quarter, as you can see on Slide 3. This growth in billed business, as shown on Slides 4 and 5, is being driven by continued momentum in spending on goods and services, which strengthened sequentially and grew 24% versus 2019 in Q4.

首先，我們在 2021 年第四季度和全年看到了創紀錄的網絡支出水平，在第四季度經外匯調整後，總網絡量和計費業務量相對於 2019 年都增長了 10% 以上，正如您在幻燈片 3 中看到的那樣。如幻燈片 4 和 5 所示，計費業務的增長是由商品和服務支出的持續增長推動的，與 2019 年第四季度相比，該支出環比增長 24%。

This momentum is from the strong growth in online and card-not-present spending that continued throughout 2021, even as offline spending fully recovered and resumed growth, demonstrating the lasting effect of the behavioral changes we've seen during the pandemic. Importantly, this 24% growth versus 2019 in Q4 represents a cumulative growth rate over the past 2 years that is well above the growth rate we were seeing pre pandemic.

這種勢頭來自於整個 2021 年持續的在線和無卡消費的強勁增長，即使線下消費完全恢復並恢復增長，這表明我們在大流行期間看到的行為變化的持久影響。重要的是，與 2019 年第四季度相比，這 24% 的增長代表了過去 2 年的累積增長率，遠高於我們在大流行前看到的增長率。

In our Consumer business, our focus on attracting and engaging younger cohorts of Card Members through expanding our value propositions and digital capabilities is fueling the 50% growth in spending from our millennial and Gen Z customers you see on Slide 6. And spending from all other age cohorts also showed steady improvement throughout 2021 and exceeded pre-pandemic levels in Q4.

在我們的消費者業務中，我們專注於通過擴大我們的價值主張和數字能力來吸引和吸引年輕的持卡會員群體，這推動了我們在幻燈片 6 上看到的千禧一代和 Z 世代客戶的支出增長了 50%。以及所有其他客戶的支出整個 2021 年，年齡組也顯示出穩步改善，並在第四季度超過了大流行前的水平。

Our strategic focus on helping our small and medium-sized enterprise clients run their businesses by expanding the range of products and capabilities that meet their B2B payments and working capital needs is driving the strong SME spending trends you see on Slide 7. Global SME spending, particularly B2B spending on goods and services, has been driving the growth of our Commercial Billed business throughout 2021 and reached 25% above pre-pandemic levels in Q4.

我們的戰略重點是通過擴展滿足其 B2B 支付和營運資金需求的產品和功能範圍來幫助我們的中小型企業客戶開展業務，這正在推動您在幻燈片 7 中看到的強勁的中小企業支出趨勢。全球中小企業支出，尤其是在商品和服務上的 B2B 支出，在整個 2021 年一直推動我們的商業賬單業務增長，並在第四季度達到大流行前水平的 25%。

Now turning to T&E spending. You can see on Slide 8 that it continues to recover in line with our expectations, with overall T&E spending reaching 82% of 2019 levels in the fourth quarter. We did see some modest impacts from the Omicron variant and T&E spending as the pace of recovery slowed a bit in December. But even with that modest slowdown, U.S. Consumer T&E was not only fully recovered in the fourth quarter, but actually grew 8% above 2019 levels.

現在轉向 T&E 支出。您可以在幻燈片 8 上看到，它繼續按照我們的預期恢復，第四季度整體 T&E 支出達到 2019 年水平的 82%。我們確實看到了 Omicron 變體和 T&E 支出的一些適度影響，因為 12 月的複蘇步伐略有放緩。但即使出現適度放緩，美國消費者 T&E 不僅在第四季度完全恢復，而且實際上比 2019 年的水平增長了 8%。

On balance, the T&E trends we have seen throughout 2021 reinforce our view that travel and entertainment spending will eventually fully recover, but at varying paces across customer types and geographies. And we remain focused on maintaining our leadership position in offering differentiated travel and lifestyle benefits to our Consumer and Commercial customers as they return to travel.

總的來說，我們在 2021 年看到的 T&E 趨勢強化了我們的觀點，即旅遊和娛樂支出最終將完全恢復，但在不同客戶類型和地區的速度不同。我們仍然專注於保持我們的領先地位，為我們的消費者和商業客戶提供差異化的旅行和生活方式利益，因為他們返回旅行。

Finally, on Slide 9, you see that our Billed business momentum continues to be led by the U.S., where spending improved sequentially throughout 2021 and grew 16% above 2019 levels in the fourth quarter. International Billed business has also shown continued steady, though smaller, improvements, with spending almost fully recovered in Q4. Importantly, though, growth in goods and services spending continues to be strong, both in the U.S. and outside of the U.S.

最後，在幻燈片 9 上，您會看到我們的計費業務勢頭繼續由美國引領，美國的支出在整個 2021 年連續增長，第四季度比 2019 年的水平增長了 16%。國際賬單業務也顯示出持續穩定的改善，儘管改善幅度較小，第四季度的支出幾乎完全恢復。不過，重要的是，無論是在美國還是在美國以外，商品和服務支出的增長仍然強勁。

So what do all of these takeaways mean for 2022 and beyond? Most importantly, we expect the strong momentum in goods and services spending to continue, given the investments we've made in premium card member engagement; prospect acquisition; value propositions that particularly appeal to our millennial, Gen Z and SME customers; growing our coverage; and expanding relationships with key partners.

那麼，所有這些要點對 2022 年及以後意味著什麼？最重要的是，鑑於我們在高級卡會員參與方面所做的投資，我們預計商品和服務支出的強勁勢頭將繼續下去；潛在客戶獲取；對我們的千禧一代、Z 世代和中小企業客戶特別有吸引力的價值主張；擴大我們的覆蓋範圍；並擴大與主要合作夥伴的關係。

For T&E, we expect the total Global Consumer and SME T&E spending will be fully recovered by the end of 2022, led by the growth in the U.S. The recovery will be slower for the international and cross-border components of the spend. We've also long said that large and global corporate T&E spending would be the last to recover across our customer types. So these spending types may represent a steady tailwind in both '22 and 2023 as they gradually recover.

對於 T&E，我們預計全球消費者和中小企業 T&E 總支出將在美國增長的帶動下於 2022 年底完全恢復。國際和跨境支出部分的複蘇將較慢。我們也早就說過，大型和全球企業的 T&E 支出將是我們所有客戶類型中最後恢復的。因此，隨著這些支出類型逐漸恢復，它們可能在 22 年和 2023 年都代表著穩定的順風。

Moving on to receivable and loan balances on Slide 10. We are seeing good sequential growth in our lending balances, but it is led by spending. And so the portion of our lending balances that are revolving is recovering more slowly. Because our balances are spend-driven, we do expect to continue to see a strong rebound, with loan balances surpassing 2019 levels in 2022. But we expect it to take more time for the interest-bearing portion of these balances to rebuild as paydown rates continue to remain elevated due to the liquidity and strength amongst our customer base.

在幻燈片 10 上繼續討論應收賬款和貸款餘額。我們的貸款餘額連續增長良好，但這是由支出帶動的。因此，我們正在循環的貸款餘額部分恢復得更慢。由於我們的餘額是由支出驅動的，我們確實預計將繼續強勁反彈，貸款餘額將在 2022 年超過 2019 年的水平。但我們預計這些餘額的計息部分需要更多時間才能隨著還款率的增加而重建由於我們客戶群的流動性和實力，繼續保持高位。

Turning next to credit and provision on Slides 11 through 13. As you flip through these slides, there are a few key points I'd like you to take away. Most importantly, we continue to see extremely strong credit performance, with Card Member loans and receivables write-off and delinquency rates remaining around historical lows. As loan balances begin to rebuild more meaningfully, we do expect delinquency and loss rates to slowly move up over time, but we expect them to remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2022.

轉到幻燈片 11 到 13 上的信用和規定。當您翻閱這些幻燈片時，我希望您帶走一些關鍵點。最重要的是，我們繼續看到極其強勁的信貸表現，卡會員貸款和應收賬款核銷和拖欠率保持在歷史低點附近。隨著貸款餘額開始更有意義地重建，我們確實預計拖欠率和損失率會隨著時間的推移緩慢上升，但我們預計它們將在 2022 年保持在大流行前水平以下。

The strong credit performance, combined with continued improvement in the macroeconomic outlook throughout 2021, drove a $1.4 billion provision expense benefit for the full year as the low write-offs were fully offset by the reserve releases, as shown on Slide 12. As you see on Slide 13, we ended 2021 with $3.4 billion of reserves, representing 3.7% of our loan balances, and 0.1% of our Card Member receivable balances, respectively. This is well below the reserve levels we had pre pandemic, given the strong credit performance we've seen.

如幻燈片 12 所示，強勁的信貸表現，加上整個 2021 年宏觀經濟前景的持續改善，推動了 14 億美元的全年撥備費用收益，因為低沖銷完全被儲備釋放所抵消。如您所見在幻燈片 13 上，我們在 2021 年結束時的準備金為 34 億美元，分別占我們貸款餘額的 3.7% 和我們的卡會員應收餘額的 0.1%。鑑於我們看到的強勁信貸表現，這遠低於我們在大流行前的儲備水平。

In 2022, we will be growing over the $2.5 billion reserve release benefit we saw in 2021 since I would not expect to see reserve releases of the same magnitude going forward. In fact, depending on credit trends and the pace at which our balance sheet grows, it's possible we may need to build some modest level of reserves.

到 2022 年，我們將比 2021 年看到的 25 億美元儲備釋放收益增長，因為我預計未來不會看到同樣數量的儲備釋放。事實上，根據信貸趨勢和我們資產負債表的增長速度，我們可能需要建立一些適度的準備金水平。

Moving next to revenues on Slide 14. Total revenues were up 30% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, up 17% for the full year. This is well above our original expectations for the year, driven by the successful execution of our investment strategy, and it is part of what emboldens us to launch our new growth plan.

接下來是幻燈片 14 的收入。第四季度總收入同比增長 30%，全年增長 17%。在我們成功執行投資戰略的推動下，這遠高於我們對這一年的最初預期，也是我們鼓勵推出新增長計劃的一部分。

Before I get into more details about our largest revenue drivers in the next few slides, I would note that other fees and commissions and other revenue were both up year-over-year in the fourth quarter and for the full year, primarily driven by the uptick in travel-related revenues we began to see in the second half of 2021. These travel-related revenues still remain well below 2019 levels, however, and their complete recovery will likely lag and be a tailwind into 2023, along with international and cross-border travel.

在我在接下來的幾張幻燈片中詳細了解我們最大的收入驅動因素之前，我要指出的是，其他費用和佣金以及其他收入在第四季度和全年都同比增長，主要受我們在 2021 年下半年開始看到與旅行相關的收入出現上升。然而，這些與旅行相關的收入仍遠低於 2019 年的水平，而且它們的完全復甦可能會滯後，並成為 2023 年的順風車，同時國際和跨-邊境旅行。

Turning to our largest revenue line, discount revenue, on Slide 15. You see it grew 36% year-over-year in Q4 and 25% for the full year on an FX-adjusted basis. This growth is primarily driven by the momentum in goods and services spending we saw throughout 2021. Net card fee revenues have grown consistently throughout the pandemic and, for the full year of 2021, were up 10% year-over-year and up 28% versus 2019, as you can see on Slide 16.

在幻燈片 15 上轉向我們最大的收入線折扣收入。您會看到它在第四季度同比增長 36%，在外匯調整的基礎上全年增長 25%。這一增長主要是由我們在整個 2021 年看到的商品和服務支出的勢頭推動的。在整個大流行期間，淨卡費收入一直在持續增長，在 2021 年全年，同比增長 10% 和 28%如幻燈片 16 所示，與 2019 年相比。

The resiliency of these subscription-like revenues demonstrates the impact of the investments we've made in our premium value propositions and the continued attractiveness of those value propositions to both prospects and existing customers. As a result, I expect net card fee growth to accelerate from these already high growth rates in 2022.

這些類似訂閱的收入的彈性證明了我們在溢價價值主張上進行的投資的影響，以及這些價值主張對潛在客戶和現有客戶的持續吸引力。因此，我預計 2022 年這些已經很高的增長率將加速淨卡費用增長。

Turning to net interest income on Slide 17. You can see that it was up 11% year-over-year in the fourth quarter. This is the second consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth as we clearly hit an inflection point in the second half of 2021.

轉向幻燈片 17 的淨利息收入。您可以看到第四季度同比增長 11%。這是連續第二個季度同比增長，因為我們顯然在 2021 年下半年達到了拐點。

The growth in net interest income is slower than the growth in lending AR due to the strong liquidity demonstrated by our customers that I spoke about earlier, which is leading to both our historically low credit costs and to high paydown rates that are driving lower net interest yields and a slower recovery in revolving loan balances. Looking ahead, we expect net interest income to be a tailwind to our revenue growth in 2022 and likely 2023 due to the slower recovery in revolving loan balances.

由於我之前談到的客戶表現出的強大流動性，淨利息收入的增長慢於貸款 AR 的增長，這導致我們的信貸成本處於歷史低位，而高還款率導致淨利息降低收益率和循環貸款餘額恢復緩慢。展望未來，由於循環貸款餘額恢復緩慢，我們預計淨利息收入將成為我們 2022 年和 2023 年收入增長的推動力。

So to sum up on revenues, the successful execution of our investment strategy has driven the revenue recovery momentum you see on Slide 18. Looking forward into 2022, we expect to see revenue growth of 18% to 20%, driven by the continued strong growth in spend and card fee revenues and the lingering recovery tailwinds from net interest income and travel-related revenues.

總結一下收入，我們投資戰略的成功執行推動了您在幻燈片 18 中看到的收入恢復勢頭。展望 2022 年，在持續強勁增長的推動下，我們預計收入將增長 18% 至 20%支出和卡費收入以及淨利息收入和旅行相關收入的揮之不去的複蘇順風。

The revenue momentum we saw in 2021 was clearly accelerated by the investments we made in marketing, value propositions, technology and people. And those investments show up across the expense lines you see on Slide 19. Starting with variable customer engagement expenses at the top of Slide 19, there are a few things to think about. Most importantly, the investments we are making in our premium value propositions are resonating with our customers and this, of course, is driving growth in these expense lines.

我們在營銷、價值主張、技術和人員方面的投資明顯加速了我們在 2021 年看到的收入勢頭。這些投資出現在您在幻燈片 19 上看到的費用線中。從幻燈片 19 頂部的可變客戶參與費用開始，有幾件事需要考慮。最重要的是，我們在溢價價值主張上的投資引起了客戶的共鳴，這當然也推動了這些費用項目的增長。

In addition, over the course of the pandemic, we added some temporary incremental benefits to many of our premium products in an effort we refer to as value injection because our customers were not able to take advantage of many of the travel-related aspects of our value propositions. The cost of this value injection effort generally showed up in the marketing expense line. Throughout 2021, we gradually wound down the value injection offers as our customers were again engaging more with the travel aspects of our value propositions as well as with the new rewards and benefits we introduced through recent product refreshes.

此外，在大流行期間，我們為我們的許多優質產品添加了一些臨時的增量利益，我們稱之為價值注入，因為我們的客戶無法利用我們的許多與旅行相關的方面有價值的建議。這種價值注入工作的成本通常顯示在營銷費用項中。在整個 2021 年，我們逐漸減少了價值注入優惠，因為我們的客戶再次更多地參與我們價值主張的旅行方面以及我們通過最近的產品更新引入的新獎勵和福利。

This is all a good thing in terms of our long-term customer retention and growth prospects. It does, however, mean you see more year-over-year growth in these variable customer engagement costs. Putting all these dynamics together, I'd expect variable customer engagement costs overall to run at around 42% of total revenues in 2022.

就我們的長期客戶保留和增長前景而言，這都是一件好事。但是，這確實意味著您會看到這些可變客戶參與成本的同比增長更多。綜合所有這些動態，我預計到 2022 年，可變客戶參與成本將佔總收入的 42% 左右。

Moving to the bottom of the slide. Operating expenses were just over $11 billion for full year 2021 and in line with 2020. Understanding our OpEx results, however, it's important to point out that we benefited from $767 million in net mark-to-market gains in our Amex Ventures strategic investment portfolio in 2021 and that these gains are reported in the OpEx line.

移動到幻燈片的底部。 2021 年全年的運營費用略高於 110 億美元，與 2020 年持平。然而，了解我們的運營支出結果，重要的是要指出，我們從美國運通風險投資公司戰略投資組合中的 7.67 億美元淨市值收益中受益在 2021 年，這些收益將在 OpEx 行中報告。

We also increased investments in the critical areas of technology and our talented colleague base in 2021 and expect to continue to grow our investments in these areas this year. For 2022, we expect our operating expenses to be a bit over $12 billion, and we see these costs as a key source of leverage relative to our much higher level of revenue growth. Last, our effective tax rate for 2021 was around 25%. And I'd expect a similar effective tax rate in 2022, absent any legislative changes.

我們還在 2021 年增加了對關鍵技術領域和我們才華橫溢的同事基礎的投資，並預計今年將繼續增加我們在這些領域的投資。到 2022 年，我們預計我們的運營費用將略高於 120 億美元，相對於我們更高水平的收入增長，我們認為這些成本是關鍵的槓桿來源。最後，我們 2021 年的有效稅率約為 25%。在沒有任何立法變化的情況下，我預計 2022 年會有類似的有效稅率。

Turning next to our marketing investments we are making to build growth momentum. You can see on Slide 20 that we invested around $1.6 billion in marketing in the fourth quarter and $5.3 billion for the full year as we continue to ramp up new card acquisitions while winding down our value injection efforts. We acquired 2.7 million new cards, up 54% year-over-year.

轉向我們的營銷投資，我們正在建立增長動力。您可以在幻燈片 20 上看到，我們在第四季度投入了約 16 億美元用於營銷，全年投入了 53 億美元，因為我們繼續加大新卡的收購力度，同時減少我們的價值注入工作。我們購買了 270 萬張新卡，同比增長 54%。

Steve emphasized the critical point, however, that, in particular, we see great demand for our premium fee-based products, with new accounts acquired on these products almost doubling year-over-year and representing 67% of the new accounts acquired in the quarter. Acquisitions of new U.S. consumer and small business Platinum Card members were at all-time highest this year, with Q4 being a record quarter of new account acquisitions from both of these refreshed products.

然而，史蒂夫強調了關鍵點，特別是我們看到對我們的收費產品的巨大需求，這些產品獲得的新賬戶幾乎同比翻了一番，佔新賬戶的 67% 25美分硬幣。今年美國消費者和小型企業白金卡新會員的收購量創歷史新高，第四季度是這兩種更新產品新增賬戶的創紀錄季度。

Much more importantly, though, than just the total number of cards, we focus internally on the overall level of spend and fee revenue growth we bring on from these new acquisitions. We are pleased to see that the revenues from 2021's acquisitions are trending significantly stronger than what we saw pre pandemic. Looking forward, we expect to spend around $5 billion in marketing in 2022.

不過，更重要的是，不僅僅是卡的總數，我們內部還關注我們從這些新收購中帶來的總體支出水平和費用收入增長。我們很高興看到 2021 年收購的收入趨勢明顯強於我們在大流行前看到的收入。展望未來，我們預計 2022 年將在營銷上花費約 50 億美元。

Turning next to capital on Slide 21. We returned $9 billion of capital to our shareholders in 2021, including common stock repurchases of $7.6 billion and $1.4 billion in common stock dividends on the back of a starting excess capital position and strong earnings generation. As a result, we ended the year with our CET1 ratio back within our target range, 10% to 11%.

在幻燈片 21 上轉向資本。我們在 2021 年向股東返還了 90 億美元的資本，其中包括 76 億美元的普通股回購和 14 億美元的普通股股息，這是由於開始的超額資本頭寸和強勁的盈利產生。因此，我們在年底的 CET1 比率回到了我們的目標範圍內，即 10% 至 11%。

In Q1 2022 and another sign of our growing confidence in our growth prospects, we expect to increase our dividend by around 20% to $0.52 and to continue to return to shareholders the excess capital we generate while supporting our balance sheet growth. That brings me to our growth plan on Slide 22, and then we'll open up the call for your questions.

在 2022 年第一季度，這是我們對增長前景信心增強的另一個跡象，我們預計股息將增加約 20% 至 0.52 美元，並繼續向股東返還我們產生的多餘資本，同時支持我們的資產負債表增長。這讓我想到了幻燈片 22 上的增長計劃，然後我們將打開電話詢問您的問題。

The combination of our pre-pandemic strategies, our learnings from the pandemic and the strong momentum we have achieved have all come together to embolden us to announce our new growth plan. What does that mean financially? In the near term, we expect our revenue growth to be significantly higher than our long-term aspiration due to the range of pandemic recovery tailwinds that I've talked about throughout my remarks, which is why we have given 2022 guidance of 18% to 20% revenue growth.

我們的大流行前戰略、我們從大流行中吸取的教訓以及我們所取得的強勁勢頭相結合，使我們更有勇氣宣布新的增長計劃。這在財務上意味著什麼？在短期內，我們預計我們的收入增長將顯著高於我們的長期期望，因為我在整個演講中都談到了大流行恢復順風的範圍，這就是為什麼我們將 2022 年的指引定為 18%收入增長 20%。

We've also given EPS guidance for 2022 of $9.25 to $9.65. We feel good about this earnings guidance as the momentum we have built on the revenue side helps us to grow over the number of notable items that benefited our 2021 results that we certainly don't expect to repeat in the same magnitude in 2022, as I discussed at the very beginning of my remarks this morning.

我們還給出了 2022 年每股收益 9.25 美元至 9.65 美元的指導。我們對這一收益指引感到滿意，因為我們在收入方面建立的勢頭幫助我們增加了受益於我們 2021 年業績的顯著項目的數量，我們當然不希望在 2022 年以同樣的幅度重複這些項目，因為我在我今天上午的發言一開始就討論過。

Our 2022 guidance does assume an economy that will continue to improve and reflects what we know today about the regulatory and competitive environment. It also assumes that, based on current exchange rates, we would not see a significant impact from FX in our reported revenue growth in 2022.

我們的 2022 年指導確實假設經濟將繼續改善並反映我們今天對監管和競爭環境的了解。它還假設，根據當前匯率，我們不會看到外匯對我們報告的 2022 年收入增長產生重大影響。

In 2023, we expect our revenue growth to remain above our long-term aspirational targets due to the lingering recovery tailwinds, which should create a platform for producing mid-teens EPS growth. Longer term, as we get to a more steady-state macro environment, we have an aspiration of delivering revenue growth in excess of 10% and mid-teens EPS growth on a sustainable basis in 2024 and beyond.

由於復甦的順風揮之不去，我們預計我們的收入增長將在 2023 年保持在我們的長期理想目標之上，這應該會為產生十幾歲左右的每股收益增長創造一個平台。從長遠來看，隨著我們進入更穩定的宏觀環境，我們希望在 2024 年及以後實現收入增長超過 10% 和 10% 左右的可持續每股收益增長。

In closing, we are committed to executing against our new growth plan, and we'll be running the company with a focus on achieving our accelerated growth aspirations.

最後，我們致力於執行我們的新增長計劃，我們將專注於實現我們加速增長的願望來運營公司。

With that, I'll turn the call back over to Vivian.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回給 Vivian。

Thank you, Jeff. Before we open up the lines for Q&A, I will ask those in the queue to please limit yourself to just 1 question. Thank you for your cooperation.

謝謝你，傑夫。在我們開放問答線路之前，我會要求排隊的人將自己限制在 1 個問題上。謝謝您的合作。

And with that, the operator will now open the line for questions. Alan?

有了這個，操作員現在將打開問題線。艾倫?

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Ryan Nash。

So it's good to hear about the better-than-expected 2024 plus long-term aspirations for -- in excess of 10% revenue growth and mid-teens EPS growth. So Steve, I was maybe talking -- hoping you can maybe just talk about what is allowing you to drive this better structural growth? Is it the investments you're making? The brand resonating more with investors? And what are the key drivers?

因此，很高興聽到好於預期的 2024 年以及超過 10% 的收入增長和十幾歲左右的每股收益增長的長期願望。所以史蒂夫，我可能在說——希望你能談談是什麼讓你能夠推動這種更好的結構性增長？是你做的投資嗎？品牌更能引起投資者的共鳴？關鍵驅動因素是什麼？

And clearly, you're investing heavily in the near term. Jeff mentioned higher variable engagement costs. Can you maybe just talk about what should give investors confidence that as we get to 2024, the business is going to be able to drive operating leverage versus historically a view of reinvesting a lot into the business?

很明顯，你在短期內進行了大量投資。傑夫提到了更高的可變參與成本。您能否談談什麼應該讓投資者相信，隨著我們到 2024 年，該業務將能夠提高運營槓桿率，而不是歷史上對業務進行大量再投資的觀點？

And just lastly, one point of clarification, Jeff. Can you just clarify the platform for mid-teens EPS growth? Were you mentioning that you expect mid-teens in '23 or more than it was positioning you well for mid-teens within '24?

最後，要澄清一點，傑夫。你能澄清一下青少年每股收益增長的平台嗎？您是否提到您期望 23 年或更多的青少年比它為 24 年的青少年定位更好？

Well, maybe we'll work backwards, Steve will take the last one.

好吧，也許我們會倒退，史蒂夫會拿最後一個。

Okay.

好的。

I think the language on 2023 around EPS growth, Ryan, is meant to make the point that we are -- certainly, given the tailwind is going to drive, again, very high revenue growth, and that creates a great platform for steady earnings growth. The caution there is just you still have some volatility in how credit reserves may play out.

我認為關於 2023 年每股收益增長的措辭，瑞安，旨在表明我們是——當然，鑑於順風將再次推動非常高的收入增長，這為穩定的盈利增長創造了一個很好的平台.需要注意的是，信貸儲備的發揮方式仍然存在一些波動。

And so when you think about sort of the total level of earnings in 2022 and '23, I feel pretty confident. Could you have some result that moves reserve releases between 1 year and another, which skewed the actual year-over-year growth number of it? You might. But I think the core earnings power will be there, given the high revenue growth that Steve is going to talk about next.

因此，當您考慮到 2022 年和 23 年的總收入水平時，我感到非常有信心。您能否得出一些結果，使儲備釋放在 1 年和另一年之間移動，從而扭曲了實際的同比增長數字？你可能會。但我認為，鑑於史蒂夫接下來要談到的高收入增長，核心盈利能力將在那裡。

Yes. But just talk about the operating leverage for a second, too. Because when you look at -- and Jeff mentioned that we had sort of a contra to operating expense with the venture gains this year. When you look at that, you will have operating expense leverage growth this particular year because you're looking at 18% to 20% revenue growth.

是的。但也只談一下運營槓桿。因為當你看到 - 傑夫提到我們今年的風險收益與運營費用有某種對比。當您看到這一點時，您將在這一特定年份獲得運營費用槓桿增長，因為您正在尋找 18% 到 20% 的收入增長。

And if you sort of -- even if you don't normalize it, you're going to have a much higher revenue growth than [OPEX] (corrected by the company after the all). So we're still going to drive operating expense [leverage] (corrected by the company after the call) throughout this -- throughout our journey. But let me talk to you about what gives me the confidence.

如果你有點——即使你不把它標準化，你的收入增長也會比 [OPEX] 高得多（畢竟由公司糾正）。因此，我們仍將在整個過程中推動運營費用 [槓桿]（在電話會議後由公司更正） - 在我們的整個旅程中。但是讓我和你談談是什麼給了我信心。

And when I look at sort of what we've done over the last 4 years, where we are now and how we're exiting, what I would sum this up is it's a combination of 3 things. It is the strategy that we put in place. It is the secular tailwinds that we have and the momentum. And I'm going to start from the back and work my way forward.

當我回顧我們在過去 4 年中所做的事情、我們現在所處的位置以及我們如何退出時，我的總結是它是三件事的結合。這是我們實施的策略。這是我們擁有的長期順風和勢頭。我將從後面開始，繼續前進。

Look at the momentum. I mean you've got 30% revenue growth in this particular quarter. You've got 2.7 million cards that we acquired. You've got historically high billings growth. We haven't gotten into this, but we see travel bookings. When we looked at travel bookings in the fourth quarter, it was 24% up over '19. When we look at the first couple of weeks in January [in the US] (added by the company after the call), we're 44% up over '19. So we have tremendous momentum entering 2022.

看氣勢。我的意思是你在這個特定季度的收入增長了 30%。我們獲得了 270 萬張卡片。您的賬單增長創歷史新高。我們還沒有涉及到這一點，但我們看到了旅行預訂。當我們查看第四季度的旅行預訂時，它比 19 年增長了 24%。當我們查看 1 月份 [在美國] 的前幾週（由公司在電話會議後添加）時，我們比 19 年增長了 44%。因此，進入 2022 年，我們擁有巨大的動力。

And I'll move to the beginning and go to the strategy. We -- at the -- back in 2018, and I made this in my remarks, we talked about being the premium card provider. And I think the skepticism was for millennials and Gen Z. That skepticism from my perspective is over. 60% of the [Consumer] (added by the company after the call) cards that we acquired are millennials and Gen Z in this quarter. 75% of our [US Consumer Platinum and Gold] (added by the company after the call) premium cards were millennials [and Gen Z] (added by the company after the call).

我將開始討論策略。我們 - 在 - 早在 2018 年，我在我的講話中提到了這一點，我們談到了成為高級卡提供商。我認為這種懷疑是針對千禧一代和 Z 世代的。從我的角度來看，這種懷疑已經結束。我們在本季度獲得的 [Consumer]（由公司在電話會議後添加）卡中有 60% 是千禧一代和 Z 世代。我們的 [美國消費者白金和黃金]（公司在電話會議後添加）高級卡中有 75% 是千禧一代 [和 Z 世代]（公司在電話會議後添加）。

And we -- then the next strategic imperative was SME. We had probably the best SME acquisition year that we've ever had. We talked about our ability to be in people's digital lives, we had 31% online spending growth over 2019, and we had 16% online spending growth just over last year.

我們——然後下一個戰略要務是中小企業。我們可能度過了有史以來最好的中小企業收購年。我們談到了我們融入人們數字生活的能力，我們的在線支出比 2019 年增長了 31%，我們的在線支出僅比去年增長了 16%。

And look at what we've done from a merchant perspective. We're at parity in the U.S., and we added over 7 million merchants just last year internationally. And I look at the secular tailwinds. I think the pandemic has moved online spending forward for 3 to 5 years, and we're getting more than our fair share.

從商家的角度來看我們所做的。我們在美國處於同等地位，僅去年一年，我們就在國際上增加了超過 700 萬商家。我看看世俗的順風。我認為大流行已經將在線支出向前推進了 3 到 5 年，而且我們得到的收益超過了我們應得的份額。

And then look at our business. We're at 82% of the overall T&E business from 2019. Now consumer is doing really well. In the fourth quarter, we were up 8%, but the rest of it is below 2019 levels. And so we believe, from a T&E perspective, we've got more room to go.

然後看看我們的業務。從 2019 年開始，我們佔整個 T&E 業務的 82%。現在消費者的表現非常好。在第四季度，我們增長了 8%，但其餘部分低於 2019 年的水平。因此，我們相信，從 T&E 的角度來看，我們還有更大的發展空間。

When we look at our -- as we segment our Card Members, millennials are blowing it out. We had over 50% spending from millennials and our Gen -- and Gen Z increase over both 2019 and 2020. And as we look at sort of our -- our Gen X is up, and our boomers are not. And our boomers are traditionally the ones that travel and have money. And once we get from pandemic to endemic here, they're going to start traveling again.

當我們查看我們的 - 當我們細分我們的卡會員時，千禧一代正在吹噓它。我們有超過 50% 的支出來自千禧一代，而我們的 Gen - 和 Z 世代在 2019 年和 2020 年都在增加。從我們的角度來看 - 我們的 X 一代正在上升，而我們的嬰兒潮一代則沒有。我們的嬰兒潮一代傳統上是旅行和有錢的人。一旦我們從大流行變成地方病，他們將再次開始旅行。

Jeff talked about modest loan balances. That will grow over time, which is the comment we made about some reserve increases, but we're going to get back to where we were. We look at international consumer. International consumer tends to be a more traveling Card Member, and that business is flat. And large and global has not come back.

傑夫談到了適度的貸款餘額。這將隨著時間的推移而增長，這是我們對一些儲備增加的評論，但我們將回到原來的狀態。我們著眼於國際消費者。國際消費者往往是出差較多的持卡會員，而且業務平淡。而大的和全球的還沒有回來。

And I'll leave you with this on large and global. People are skeptical about business travel because of all the remote workforce. In fact, I think business travel is going to be completely different. And I think as you have more people in more remote locations, they may need to get together 3, 4, maybe 5 times a year to come to headquarters or to come to locations where they never had to come to before.

我將在大型和全球範圍內為您提供這一點。由於所有遠程勞動力，人們對商務旅行持懷疑態度。事實上，我認為商務旅行將完全不同。而且我認為，隨著在更偏遠的地方有更多的人，他們可能需要每年聚集 3、4 甚至 5 次才能來到總部或來到他們以前從未去過的地方。

And let's face it, we all realize that there's nothing better than sitting in front of your customers. And I just -- did just came back from an opportunity at the Amex Golf Tournament to sit in front of a lot of my customers. So when we look at these secular tailwinds, that's why we believe it's not only doable but sustainable as we move forward.

讓我們面對現實吧，我們都意識到沒有什麼比坐在客戶面前更好的了。而我剛剛——剛剛從美國運通高爾夫錦標賽的一個機會中回來，坐在我的很多客戶面前。因此，當我們看到這些長期的順風時，這就是為什麼我們相信它不僅是可行的，而且在我們前進的過程中是可持續的。

Our next question will come from Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Betsy Graseck。

I just wanted to dig in a little bit more on some of the opportunities that you were discussing. When I sit from my seat, I'm wondering what type of penetration do you think you have in the U.S. millennial and Gen Z? The numbers you just quoted are very impressive. But I'm wondering, do you feel you're at 90% of that market or 10%? Give us a sense as to how you're thinking about that.

我只是想更深入地了解您正在討論的一些機會。當我坐在座位上時，我想知道你認為你在美國的千禧一代和 Z 世代有什麼樣的滲透率？你剛才引用的數字令人印象深刻。但我想知道，你覺得你是那個市場的 90% 還是 10%？讓我們了解您對此的看法。

And in addition, on the SME side, where you're the clear leader, where is the room for you to run? Is it by increasing the product set, i.e., the revolving line of credit that you recently announced? Or is it more in acquiring new customers? And really, the question is, what's the TAM? And what percentage of that TAM do you think you have right now in the various customer sets?

此外，在中小企業方面，你是明確的領導者，你的運行空間在哪裡？是通過增加產品組合，即您最近宣布的循環信貸額度嗎？還是更多地是在獲取新客戶？實際上，問題是，什麼是 TAM？您認為您現在在各種客戶群中擁有多少百分比的 TAM？

So let me start, and Jeff can sort of jump in. Look, from a millennial perspective, I don't know exactly where we are. But what I can tell you is we're not at the 90%. I'd be closer to the 10% than the 90%, but millennials and Gen Z. So I think there's a lot of opportunity and a lot of runway. And maybe in Investor Day, we'll try and give you some guidance on that, and we'll do a little bit of work on that.

所以讓我開始，傑夫可以加入。看，從千禧一代的角度來看，我不知道我們到底在哪裡。但我可以告訴你的是，我們還沒有達到 90%。我會比 90% 更接近 10%，但千禧一代和 Z 世代。所以我認為有很多機會和很多跑道。也許在投資者日，我們會嘗試給你一些指導，我們會做一些工作。

From an SME perspective, look, we are -- that's right. We are the clear leader from an SME perspective. And I think when you look at the opportunity set, what we've said from an SME perspective is we want to be the total working capital provider. And so you look at what we've done.

從中小企業的角度來看，我們是——沒錯。從中小企業的角度來看，我們是明顯的領導者。而且我認為，當您查看機會集時，我們從中小企業的角度所說的是，我們希望成為總營運資金的提供者。所以你看看我們做了什麼。

What we've done is we've gone out there and now we've created -- with the acquisition of Kabbage, we've created our -- we have the checking account, we have the debit card. And the checking account is important because that's where all the flows of money come in and go out. From a card perspective, we've always been in great shape. From a revolve perspective on the card, we don't have the same share that we've had.

我們所做的是我們已經走出去，現在我們已經創建了——通過收購 Kabbage，我們創建了我們的——我們有支票賬戶，我們有借記卡。支票賬戶很重要，因為這是所有資金流入和流出的地方。從卡片的角度來看，我們的狀態一直很好。從卡片的旋轉角度來看，我們沒有我們擁有的相同份額。

And so we'll push a little bit more on that revolve and, obviously, on working capital loans and some of the other term loans we'll be pushing on as well. So we think when you put that together holistically, we have a lot of room for growth from an SME perspective, not only in the U.S. but in international, where we leverage our international corporate card business and our position from a small consumer perspective to go after it. So we think both of those areas are still very, very ripe to grow.

因此，我們將在這方面進一步推動，顯然，在營運資金貸款和我們將推動的其他一些定期貸款方面。因此，我們認為，當您將這些整體放在一起時，從中小企業的角度來看，我們有很大的增長空間，不僅在美國，而且在國際上，我們利用我們的國際公司卡業務和我們從小消費者角度出發的地位去在它之後。因此，我們認為這兩個領域的發展仍然非常非常成熟。

Our next question will come from Mihir Bhatia with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia。

I just wanted to ask, maybe we could talk a little bit about variable expenses. Specifically, what I'm wondering is just -- your guide actually seems to imply a little bit of operating leverage in that line item for next year, which -- just compared to this year. And I'm wondering what is driving that? Maybe you can give a little bit more color on the internal lines within that, the 3 different line items in there.

我只是想問一下，也許我們可以談談可變費用。具體來說，我想知道的是——你的指南實際上似乎暗示了明年該項目的一些經營槓桿，與今年相比。我想知道是什麼驅動了它？也許您可以在其中的內部線條上增加一點顏色，其中有 3 個不同的線條項目。

Mihir, I'm -- I didn't get the very first part of your question. I'm sorry.

Mihir，我 - 我沒有得到你問題的第一部分。對不起。

I'm saying your guidance of 42% of the (inaudible) as a percent of revenue is like lower than 2021, right? So I was just trying to understand maybe a little bit more which line items are there? Is it the business development line or services? Like what would be driving that?

我是說您對 42%（聽不清）佔收入百分比的指導低於 2021 年，對吧？所以我只是想多了解一下那裡有哪些行項目？是業務開發線還是服務？就像是什麼推動了這一點？

Yes. Okay. I'm sorry. So there's a few things to think about when you think about that 42%. Remember, to start with, we started giving you this percentage because it was an easy way in a very volatile time during the pandemic to help people think about all 3 of these lines. As you think about next year, I'd point out a number of our revenue lines are recovering more slowly. We talked about net interest income. We talked about other fees and commissions and other revenues because a lot of that is travel related.

是的。好的。對不起。因此，當您考慮這 42% 時，需要考慮一些事情。請記住，首先，我們開始給您這個百分比，因為在大流行期間非常動蕩的時期，這是一種簡單的方法，可以幫助人們考慮所有這 3 條線。當您考慮明年時，我會指出我們的一些收入線正在緩慢恢復。我們談到了淨利息收入。我們談到了其他費用和佣金以及其他收入，因為其中很多都與旅行有關。

So in many ways, because spend has come back more robustly, because we are seeing great engagement from our customers with both our reward programs and our many Card Member services, those engagement behaviors are causing those costs to come back more quickly than 100% of the revenues are coming back. So really, in many ways, one of the reasons we're very bullish about both '22 and '23 revenue growth being above our long-term aspiration is because you have this steady recovery as the other revenues recover.

因此，在許多方面，由於支出的回升更加強勁，因為我們看到客戶對我們的獎勵計劃和許多卡會員服務的參與度很高，這些參與行為導致這些成本回升的速度超過了 100%收入正在恢復。所以說真的，在很多方面，我們非常看好 22 年和 23 年的收入增長都高於我們的長期期望的原因之一是，隨著其他收入的恢復，你會有這種穩定的複蘇。

The other thing I'd point out, Mihir, is that, back to Steve's comment on learnings from the pandemic, and the investments we have made in our value propositions are clearly paying off when you look at our revenue growth, when you look at our acquisition results and when you look at our retention. And so, boy, I would say it is a learning for us from the pandemic that investing, as you see in that 42%, is the right thing to do to create a great platform for long-term growth for the company.

米希爾，我要指出的另一件事是，回到史蒂夫關於從大流行中吸取教訓的評論，當您查看我們的收入增長時，我們在價值主張上所做的投資顯然正在獲得回報。我們的收購結果以及當您查看我們的保留率時。因此，男孩，我想說，這是我們從大流行中學到的，正如你在 42% 中看到的那樣，投資是為公司創造一個長期增長的良好平台的正確做法。

Our next question will come from Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Wolfe Research 的 Bill Carcache。

So Amex was one of the few financials, if not the only, to not cut its dividend during the global financial crisis. Steve, how important to you is sustainability of the dividend? Did that factor into your decision to increase it by 10%? And I guess, what do you view as an optimal level for your dividend payout?

因此，美國運通是少數幾個在全球金融危機期間不削減股息的金融公司之一，如果不是唯一的話。史蒂夫，股息的可持續性對您來說有多重要？是否是您決定將其提高 10% 的因素？我想，您認為股息支付的最佳水平是多少？

Well, what I'd say, Bill, is the dividend is important to us. It's important to many of our shareholders. And the fact that we're raising it for the first time since 2019 is a sign that, in our view, it's time to be on the offense again and feel confident about our growth.

好吧，比爾，我想說的是股息對我們很重要。這對我們的許多股東都很重要。事實上，我們自 2019 年以來首次提高它，這表明，在我們看來，是時候再次進攻並對我們的成長充滿信心了。

All that said, we have a long-standing policy of having a payout that is around 20% to 25% of the dividend. With tremendous growth in earnings this year and what we expect next year or in '22, we've fallen a little bit behind that. And so we're catching up really to that level. But that's what shareholders should expect going forward. So the dividend will grow over time as our earnings grow, but you're not going to see it grow incrementally as a payout percentage.

儘管如此，我們有一項長期政策，即派息約為股息的 20% 至 25%。隨著今年收益的巨大增長以及我們對明年或 22 年的預期，我們已經落後了一點。所以我們正在趕上那個水平。但這就是股東們應該期待的未來。因此，隨著我們收益的增長，股息會隨著時間的推移而增長，但你不會看到它作為派息百分比逐漸增長。

But I think going back to the financial crisis, Bill, it was important to show the stability and just the resilience of the company during that time. And that was an important signal to our shareholders, I believe. And it just -- it showed our commitment to it. So that's about it.

但我認為回到金融危機，比爾，在那個時候展示公司的穩定性和韌性是很重要的。我相信，這對我們的股東來說是一個重要的信號。它只是 - 它表明了我們對它的承諾。就是這樣。

We'll go next to Moshe Orenbuch with Credit Suisse.

我們將與瑞士信貸一起前往 Moshe Orenbuch。

Great. I just wanted to kind of focus a little bit on the cost side. I mean you did -- the revenue guidance is very strong, clearly and probably $2 billion to $3 billion above where consensus expectations were for 2022. But only the high end of the EPS guidance is kind of where consensus is. So it sort of implies, I guess, between credit and costs, roughly $3 billion more in there. Is there a way to kind of think about what the big categories are? Because -- so that we can have a better idea of how that operating leverage post that kind of comes through.

偉大的。我只是想稍微關註一下成本方面。我的意思是你做到了——收入指引非常強勁，很明顯，可能比 2022 年的共識預期高出 20 億至 30 億美元。但只有每股收益指引的高端才是共識所在。因此，我想，在信貸和成本之間，這意味著大約多出 30 億美元。有沒有辦法思考大類別是什麼？因為——這樣我們就可以更好地了解這種運營槓桿是如何產生的。

Well, Moshe, I would admit you were fading in and out a little bit, so I'm going to take a shot at what I think you just asked. I think when you look at our 2022 EPS guidance, I actually -- the first one, I would think, would be to point people back to the revenue guidance, right? So we're all about growth. And growing our revenues another 18% to 20% on top of the 30% growth that we just showed in the fourth quarter, we think, is creating the kind of scaled platform, that is, the best platform for creating value in the long term for our shareholders.

好吧，Moshe，我承認你有點淡入淡出，所以我要試一試我認為你剛才問的問題。我認為，當您查看我們的 2022 年每股收益指引時，我認為第一個指引是讓人們回到收入指引，對嗎？所以我們都是關於增長的。我們認為，在我們剛剛在第四季度展示的 30% 增長的基礎上，我們的收入再增長 18% 到 20%，這正在創造一種規模化的平台，即長期創造價值的最佳平台為我們的股東。

Second point I'd make, when you think about 2022 earnings is, as I said at the beginning of my remarks, you had around $3.5 billion of pretax items in the 2021 earnings that I don't expect to repeat. So $2.5 billion of credit reserve releases, I think we're closer to a steady-state position on that. Another $1 billion on mark-to-market gains on both our fintech portfolio and our Global Business Travel joint venture.

我要說的第二點，當您想到 2022 年的收益時，正如我在發言開始時所說，您在 2021 年的收益中有大約 35 億美元的稅前項目，我預計不會重複。因此，釋放 25 億美元的信貸儲備，我認為我們更接近於穩定狀態。我們的金融科技產品組合和我們的全球商務旅行合資企業的按市值計價收益又增加了 10 億美元。

And so we look at our 2022 earnings guidance and see ourselves growing over that $3.5 billion while making the investments that Steve talked about in customers, brand and colleagues to drive 18% to 20% revenue growth. Boy, and we feel really good about that outcome, and we think it creates a great platform for long-term sustainable growth.

因此，我們查看了我們的 2022 年收益指引，並看到自己的增長超過 35 億美元，同時進行史蒂夫談到的對客戶、品牌和同事的投資，以推動 18% 至 20% 的收入增長。男孩，我們對這個結果感覺非常好，我們認為它為長期可持續增長創造了一個很好的平台。

Yes. I mean, look, simplistically, take the $3.5 billion off the $10.2, just call it $6.50, call it $6.70. So we see it going from that number to [$9.25] (corrected by company after the call) to $9.65. And as we've always said, we thought we'd be at the top end of the range of our 2020 plan. And the guidance that we've given used the top end of our range as the bottom end of our range. So we think it's -- from a pure operating perspective, I think it's a lot of operating EPS in 2022. You guys can decide whether you believe that or not, but the numbers are the numbers.

是的。我的意思是，看，簡單地說，從 10.2 美元中減去 35 億美元，就叫它 6.50 美元，就叫它 6.70 美元。所以我們看到它從那個數字到 [9.25 美元]（在電話會議後由公司更正）到 9.65 美元。正如我們一直說的那樣，我們認為我們將處於 2020 年計劃範圍的頂端。我們給出的指導使用我們範圍的頂端作為我們範圍的底端。所以我們認為——從純粹的運營角度來看，我認為 2022 年的運營每股收益很多。你們可以決定是否相信，但數字就是數字。

We'll once again go back to the line of Chris Donat with Piper Sandler.

我們將再次回到 Chris Donat 和 Piper Sandler 的路線。

Can you hear me this time?

這次你能聽到我的聲音嗎？

We can. Very clearly.

我們可以。很清楚。

Okay. That's a better thing. Just wanted to ask around discount rate if that factors in as one of the tailwinds you expect going forward as we think about the mix of your T&E businesses and the discount rates there and also with G&S and even online. Do you pick up any tailwinds from expected mix shift in business with the recovery?

好的。這是一件更好的事情。只是想問一下貼現率，如果我們考慮到您的 T&E 業務的組合以及那裡的貼現率以及 G&S 甚至在線的貼現率，這是否是您期望的順風之一。您是否從預期的業務組合轉變與復蘇中獲得任何順風？

Probably not. I mean because goods and services are growing so dramatically. Our traditional mix of business was 70-30, 70% goods and services and 30% T&E. We may wind up being at a steady state of 80-20. And so obviously, as T&E does come back, and we're at 82% of where we were in 2019, that's a positive to the overall discount rate, but goods and services tends to be a little bit lower.

可能不是。我的意思是因為商品和服務的增長如此之快。我們傳統的業務組合是 70-30、70% 的商品和服務以及 30% 的 T&E。我們最終可能會處於 80-20 的穩定狀態。很明顯，隨著 T&E 的回歸，我們達到了 2019 年的 82%，這對整體折扣率是有利的，但商品和服務往往會低一些。

But look, at the end of the day, we're driving discount revenue here, and that's what we're focused on. And so we're very happy with the goods and services growth and particularly the online. And what I would point out is not only is online growing, but offline is growing as well, and it's growing tremendously over 2020.

但是看，歸根結底，我們正在推動這裡的折扣收入，這就是我們所關注的。所以我們對商品和服務的增長非常滿意，尤其是在線。我要指出的是，不僅線上在增長，線下也在增長，而且在 2020 年增長迅猛。

But when you look at it over 2019, I mean, even [offline for us is up over 12%. So you've got a combination of online] (corrected by company after the call), up 31% over '19. You got offline up 12%. So we feel really good about how our Card Members are using the products.

但是，當您查看 2019 年的數據時，我的意思是，即使 [我們的線下業務也增長了 12% 以上。所以你有一個在線組合]（在電話會議後由公司更正），比 19 年增長了 31%。你離線了 12%。所以我們對我們的卡會員如何使用這些產品感覺非常好。

We'll go to the line of Bob Napoli for our next question, with William Blair.

我們將轉到 Bob Napoli 的下一個問題，由 William Blair 提問。

So one of your competitors, a large bank, I guess, targeted lower returns because of the need for tech investment to compete against, I guess, fintechs or (inaudible). But what is your thought on the -- what kind of investment do you have built in? How do you feel about the American Express tech stack and the need to invest? And I guess, as it relates to maybe blockchain and cryptocurrency, potential disruptors to payment rails, and buy now, pay later as a disruptor to credit cards?

所以你的一個競爭對手，我猜是一家大型銀行，因為需要技術投資來與金融科技或（聽不清）競爭，所以目標是降低迴報。但是你對——你建立了什麼樣的投資有什麼看法？您如何看待美國運通的技術堆棧和投資需求？而且我猜，因為它可能與區塊鍊和加密貨幣有關，可能是支付軌道的潛在破壞者，現在購買，以後支付作為信用卡的破壞者？

Well, that's a lot, Bob. Look, I think -- and you and I have talked about this before. Look, we've continued to invest in our technology stack over time. And as you know, I used to run technology many years ago, and we've been committed to constantly refreshing our tech stack and making those investments. And this year is no other, and it's not any more than it's been in years past.

嗯，這很多，鮑勃。聽著，我想——你和我以前談過這個。看，隨著時間的推移，我們一直在繼續投資於我們的技術堆棧。如您所知，我多年前曾從事技術工作，我們一直致力於不斷更新我們的技術堆棧並進行這些投資。今年沒有其他年份，也不比往年更多。

I mean from a tech development perspective, I would say we're flattish as we think about 2022, up a little bit here or there. And from a tech operations perspective, you keep taking advantage of scale and to reduce cost. And then, of course, you then pivot more money into cyber because that's constantly where you overall invest.

我的意思是，從技術發展的角度來看，我會說我們在考慮 2022 年時表現平淡，在這里或那里略有上升。從技術運營的角度來看，您將繼續利用規模優勢並降低成本。然後，當然，然後您將更多資金投入網絡，因為這一直是您整體投資的地方。

Look, as far as buy now, pay later, and again, I've made these comments many, many times, I do not believe this is targeted at our customers. Look, we have Pay it Plan It. And Pay it Plan It is -- we believe in offering our customers the opportunity to be as flexible with their payments as possible. And it gives you the ability to pick your installments and pay it over time. And we've had some increasing usage here, but it's not a major driver of our growth.

看，至於現在購買，以後付款，我已經多次發表這些評論，我不相信這是針對我們的客戶的。看，我們有 Pay it Plan It。並且支付它計劃它是 - 我們相信為我們的客戶提供盡可能靈活付款的機會。它使您能夠選擇分期付款並隨著時間的推移支付。我們在這裡的使用量有所增加，但這並不是我們增長的主要驅動力。

And if you look at the other types of buy now, pay later, the Pay in 4, geez, the reality is the charge card is almost a Pay in 4 because by the time you pay your -- on average, your charge card off or your credit card on a nonrevolve basis, you could be at 45 days anyway.

如果你看看其他類型的現在購買，以後付款，支付 4，天哪，現實是收費卡幾乎是支付 4，因為當你支付時 - 平均而言，你的收費卡關閉或您的信用卡在非循環的基礎上，無論如何您都可能在 45 天。

So -- and when we've looked at sort of buy now, pay later and that target audience, it tends to be lower FICO, it tends to be debit card users, and it tends to be utilized potentially as an acquisition tool. And that's just not how we play our game. So I'm not at all concerned with buy now, pay later.

所以 - 當我們看到現在購買，稍後付款和目標受眾時，它往往是較低的 FICO，它往往是藉記卡用戶，它往往被用作潛在的獲取工具。這不是我們玩遊戲的方式。所以我根本不關心現在購買，以後付款。

I think some successful companies out there that are driving some revenue and are driving a lot of volume through buy now, pay later. But again, we look at it as an option with our Pay It Plan It. And the nice part about Pay It Plan It is it's not at the point of sale because you can do it to any transaction. It doesn't just have to be at the point of sale, where not everybody has a buy now, pay later feature. So that's that.

我認為一些成功的公司正在推動一些收入，並通過現在購買，以後付款來推動大量銷量。但是，我們再次將其視為 Pay It Plan It 的一個選項。 Pay It Plan 的好處在於它不在銷售點，因為您可以對任何交易進行操作。它不僅必須在銷售點，不是每個人都有現在購買，以後付款的功能。就是這樣。

As far as cryptocurrency goes, look, we watch cryptocurrencies. And you've heard -- you guys have heard me talk about this. We think about the spectrum of digital currencies. We think about crypto. We think about stable coins. We think about Central Bank current digital currency. And at this particular point in time, we view more cryptocurrency as an asset class.

就加密貨幣而言，看，我們關注加密貨幣。你們已經聽到了——你們已經聽到我談論這個了。我們考慮數字貨幣的範圍。我們考慮加密貨幣。我們考慮穩定幣。我們考慮中央銀行當前的數字貨幣。在這個特定的時間點，我們將更多的加密貨幣視為一種資產類別。

I mean you've just seen Bitcoin go from $68,000 a coin to $34,000 a coin. Currencies that you use in the payment space, that's a hard thing to utilize that way. So -- and as far as blockchain, look, we've got investments in blockchain companies. We constantly look at blockchain and figure out are there use cases for us.

我的意思是你剛剛看到比特幣從每枚硬幣 68,000 美元漲到每枚硬幣 34,000 美元。您在支付領域使用的貨幣，很難以這種方式使用。所以——就區塊鏈而言，看，我們已經對區塊鏈公司進行了投資。我們不斷研究區塊鏈並找出適合我們的用例。

So and as far as stable coins and NFTs and things like that, we're partnering with, obviously, the NBA and Top Shop. And we'll look at ways to get involved. But as I've said, we're probably not going to offer a crypto card. It doesn't mean we wouldn't use MR as a redemption option. And I've said many times, it's a digital currency in itself.

因此，就穩定幣和 NFT 之類的東西而言，我們顯然正在與 NBA 和 Top Shop 合作。我們將研究參與的方式。但正如我所說，我們可能不會提供加密卡。這並不意味著我們不會使用 MR 作為兌換選項。我已經說過很多次了，它本身就是一種數字貨幣。

So -- we keep our eye on it. We keep our eye on buy now, pay later in case that -- if that tide changes. We keep our eye on cryptocurrency in case it becomes more stable. But right now, I don't see it as an immediate or medium-term threat to our business.

所以——我們密切關注它。我們一直關注現在購買，以後再付款以防萬一——如果潮流發生變化。我們密切關注加密貨幣，以防它變得更加穩定。但就目前而言，我認為這不會對我們的業務構成直接或中期威脅。

Our next question will come from Arren Cyganovich with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗的 Arren Cyganovich。

I wonder if you could talk a little bit about your capital return plans for next year. Obviously, a nice increase in the dividend, but you're at your CET1 target or within the range now at 10.5%. What -- where do you think buybacks go from here, particularly since you're starting to grow your receivable balances by a decent amount?

我想知道您能否談談您明年的資本回報計劃。顯然，股息增加了很多，但你達到了 CET1 目標或現在的 10.5% 範圍內。什麼 - 你認為回購從哪裡開始，特別是因為你開始將應收賬款餘額增加相當數量？

Well, we're pretty committed to staying within that 10% to 11% range on the CET1 ratio when I talked earlier about the dividend will go up steadily as our earnings go up. The thing to keep in mind, though, is that we pretty uniquely also generate returns on equity in recent years in excess of 30%. So we produce a tremendous amount of capital each year, far more than we need to support the growth in our very spend-centric business model and the balance sheet that results from that.

好吧，當我早些時候談到股息將隨著我們收益的上升而穩步上升時，我們非常致力於將 CET1 比率保持在 10% 至 11% 的範圍內。不過要記住的是，我們非常獨特地在最近幾年也產生了超過 30% 的股本回報率。因此，我們每年產生大量資本，遠遠超過我們支持以支出為中心的業務模式和由此產生的資產負債表增長所需的資金。

So you'll continue to see a steady level of share repurchase from us each quarter, consistent with that kind of earnings generation and that kind of ROE and staying within our 10% to 11% range. Clearly, though, the big catch-up has been the last 2 quarters, where you saw what I will call above-trend levels of share repurchase to get us right back down to that target range.

因此，您將繼續看到我們每個季度的股票回購穩定水平，與那種盈利產生和那種 ROE 一致，並保持在我們 10% 到 11% 的範圍內。不過，很明顯，最近兩個季度出現了大幅追趕，在那裡你看到了我所說的高於趨勢水平的股票回購，讓我們回到了目標範圍。

We'll go next to Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

我們將與摩根大通一起去 Rick Shane 旁邊。

One of the things that's come up repeatedly is the strength of the millennial Gen Z growth. When you look towards your revenue growth guidance, how much is embedded related to the sort of life cycle of a younger consumer and the growth that you would expect there? How does that play out over time?

反復出現的一件事是千禧一代 Z 世代增長的力量。當您查看您的收入增長指導時，與年輕消費者的生命週期以及您期望的增長相關的嵌入有多少？隨著時間的推移，這將如何發揮作用？

Well, I think when you see us very uncharacteristically, Rick, talking about long-term aspirations in '24 and beyond, a key part of that aspiration is looking at the demographics of who we're bringing in and thinking about the lifetime value of Card Members, right? We are a business with extremely high retention rates relative to almost any other business you could think about.

好吧，我認為當你非常反常地看到我們時，里克，談到 24 年及以後的長期抱負，這個抱負的一個關鍵部分是研究我們引進的人口統計數據，並思考我們的終生價值卡會員，對吧？與您能想到的幾乎所有其他業務相比，我們是一家擁有極高保留率的業務。

And when we acquire customers, we are thinking about the lifetime value of those customers. That's one of the things that contributes to the excitement that Steve started the call off with when we think about the longer-term growth prospects of the demographic that we are increasingly bringing into the company.

當我們獲得客戶時，我們會考慮這些客戶的生命週期價值。當我們考慮我們越來越多地帶入公司的人口的長期增長前景時，這就是讓史蒂夫開始興奮的原因之一。

We'll go to the line of Mark DeVries with Barclays.

我們將與巴克萊一起前往 Mark DeVries。

Yes. And this may be a somewhat related question to what Rick just asked. As I look at the 2024 kind of aspirational growth plan, it looks like you're almost back to kind of a pre-financial crisis growth algorithm with a pretty healthy spread between revenue growth and EPS growth as opposed to like the years prior to the pandemic, where there was a much tighter spread. Is that a fair observation? And if so, what's different? Are you expecting more operating leverage? Is this higher return business you're bringing on? Kind of what's behind that?

是的。這可能與 Rick 剛剛提出的問題有些相關。當我查看 2024 年的理想增長計劃時，看起來你幾乎回到了金融危機前的增長算法，收入增長和每股收益增長之間的分佈相當健康，而不是像之前幾年那樣大流行，那裡的傳播範圍要小得多。這是一個公平的觀察嗎？如果是這樣，有什麼不同？您是否期待更多的經營槓桿？這是你帶來的更高回報的業務嗎？這背後是什麼？

Well, maybe I'll start, Steve. And so first, Mark, I think I'd remind everyone our -- what we, at the time, referred to as our financial growth algorithm pre pandemic, which we very successfully executed on for 10 straight quarters, until the pandemic interrupted, with revenue growth in the 8% to 10% range and double-digit EPS growth. So we have much bolder ambitions now to be in excess of 10% on the revenue growth side in mid...

好吧，也許我會開始，史蒂夫。所以首先，馬克，我想我要提醒大家我們——我們當時所說的大流行前的財務增長算法，我們連續 10 個季度非常成功地執行了該算法，直到大流行中斷，收入增長在 8% 至 10% 範圍內，每股收益增長兩位數。因此，我們現在有更大膽的野心，希望在中期的收入增長方面超過 10%……

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Why don't you start again?

為什麼不重新開始？

Okay. So sorry. So apologize, everyone, not quite sure where the tech problem is. We're sitting in our office in the tower in New York. So pre pandemic, we were at 8% to 10% revenue growth, double-digit EPS growth like clockwork. We executed on that for 10 straight quarters until the pandemic interrupted. We see ourselves having a much bolder aspiration now in excess of 10% revenue growth, mid-teens EPS growth, and that's going to come after a '22 and '23 at higher levels than that in terms of revenue growth.

好的。非常抱歉。所以抱歉，大家，不太確定技術問題出在哪裡。我們坐在紐約塔樓的辦公室裡。因此，在大流行之前，我們的收入增長了 8% 到 10%，EPS 的兩位數增長就像發條一樣。我們連續執行了 10 個季度，直到大流行中斷。我們認為自己現在有一個更大膽的願望，即超過 10% 的收入增長、十幾歲左右的每股收益增長，而這將在 22 和 23 年之後的收入增長水平更高。

And that kind of revenue growth gives us a tremendous platform for scale, for relevance and for getting steady leverage on the marketing line and on the OpEx line because, boy, you don't need to grow marketing and OpEx at anywhere near those kind of rates. So that's the math. Maybe you want to comment, Steve?

這種收入增長為我們提供了一個巨大的規模、相關性和在營銷線和運營支出線上獲得穩定影響力的平台，因為，男孩，你不需要在接近這些領域的任何地方增加營銷和運營支出率。這就是數學。也許你想發表評論，史蒂夫？

Yes. No, I would just say, look, we've been on -- you mentioned pre-financial crisis. And yes, pre-financial crisis, there were years where we were in excess of 10% revenue growth. And then post-financial crisis -- I mean the game changed post-financial crisis, not only from a competitive perspective, but from a regulatory perspective. And then we're more mid-single digits sort of revenue growth.

是的。不，我只想說，看，我們一直在 - 你提到金融危機前。是的，在金融危機之前，有幾年我們的收入增長超過 10%。然後是金融危機後——我的意思是金融危機後的遊戲改變了，不僅從競爭的角度來看，而且從監管的角度來看。然後我們更多的是中等個位數的收入增長。

But the other thing I'd say is we're a much larger company right now as well. And so when you start to think about 2024, and you think about revenue growth, you're looking at excess of $6 billion per year in revenue growth. So I think when you start to look at those numbers and put those in perspective and contrast those to pre- and post-financial crisis, they are quite different.

但我要說的另一件事是，我們現在也是一家更大的公司。因此，當您開始考慮 2024 年並考慮收入增長時，您會看到每年超過 60 億美元的收入增長。因此，我認為，當您開始查看這些數字並正確看待這些數字並將其與金融危機前後的對比時，它們是完全不同的。

But as I said, we have all the faith in our strategy in a -- look, in a highly competitive environment. But if you think about what's moving us -- as I started this call with what's moving us right now to even higher revenue growth in the next 2 years is the fact that we've got some catch-up to do with our core business in the areas that I mentioned in terms of T&E and in loan growth and in large and global and certainly in international. And then as we move and get to a more steady state, that's where the -- again, just this reliance on the strategy that we've implemented.

但正如我所說，在競爭激烈的環境中，我們對我們的戰略充滿信心。但是，如果你想想是什麼讓我們感動——正如我開始這次電話會議時，是什麼讓我們現在在未來兩年內實現更高的收入增長，那就是我們在我在 T&E 和貸款增長方面以及在全球範圍內，當然在國際範圍內提到的領域。然後當我們移動並進入更穩定的狀態時，這就是 - 再次，這就是對我們實施的戰略的依賴。

And as Rick just mentioned, and Jeff answered the question, in terms of the lifetime value and the focus on millennials and Gen Z and whatever the next generation is going to be after this, that's going to be a key to our strategy as we expand the universe of Card Members from a premium perspective. So you'll see how it all plays out, but we are very, very confident.

正如 Rick 剛剛提到的，Jeff 回答了這個問題，就終生價值和對千禧一代和 Z 世代的關注以及在此之後的下一代將成為什麼而言，這將成為我們擴張戰略的關鍵從高級的角度來看卡會員的世界。所以你會看到這一切是如何發生的，但我們非常非常有信心。

Our next question will come from Lisa Ellis with MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Lisa Ellis 和 MoffettNathanson。

Terrific. I had a question about the investment plan supporting that 2024 outlook and beyond. Can you talk about the role of M&A -- tuck-in M&A or, I guess, I'm thinking more broadly about adjacent areas that you're focused on investing in as you build towards that kind of 2-, 3-year out plan? I'm thinking about things like Kabbage and resi like you've done in the past.

了不起。我對支持 2024 年及以後前景的投資計劃有疑問。你能談談併購的作用嗎？ 或者，我想，我正在更廣泛地考慮你在朝著那種 2 年或 3 年的發展而專注於投資的相鄰領域計劃？我正在考慮像你過去所做的那樣的 Kabbage 和 resi 之類的事情。

Yes. So I think -- Lisa, I think the way to think about this is, look, there's no singular investment target that we are looking at. But I think you've hit the nail on the head. We look at adjacencies that make sense. And as we think about the strategies for the product, I mean as we move into -- as we moved into a broader definition of how we were going to serve SMEs, the Kabbage platform made all the sense in the world. Look, you had 3 choices there: you could have tried to build it, you could buy it or you could try and partner with it.

是的。所以我認為——麗莎，我認為思考這個問題的方式是，看，我們正在關注的沒有單一的投資目標。但我認為你已經一針見血了。我們著眼於有意義的鄰接。當我們考慮產品的策略時，我的意思是當我們進入 - 當我們進入更廣泛的定義我們將如何為中小企業服務時，Kabbage 平台在世界範圍內變得非常有意義。看，你有 3 個選擇：你可以嘗試構建它，你可以購買它，或者你可以嘗試與它合作。

And so it was an opportune time, and we were able to buy it. And that's how we're replatforming our SME base. When you think about what we've done from a consumer perspective, and resi is a good example of that, is that it's an extension of our overall attractiveness of the product and an investment in resi giving access to our Card Members to dining. And it's also a great acquisition tool for customers because resi is not an Amex-only product. It has some Amex-only offers for our customers.

所以這是一個合適的時機，我們能夠買下它。這就是我們如何重塑我們的中小企業基礎。當您從消費者的角度考慮我們所做的事情時，resi 就是一個很好的例子，它是我們產品整體吸引力的延伸，也是對 resi 的投資，讓我們的卡會員可以用餐。對於客戶來說，它也是一個很好的獲取工具，因為 resi 不是美國運通唯一的產品。它為我們的客戶提供了一些僅限美國運通的優惠。

So as we continue to build out the strategy, we will make those determinations, whether it makes sense for us to build it ourselves, partner or buy it, and we'll tuck those things in, if and when they make sense, and if the overall price is right. So that's how we'll think about it.

因此，當我們繼續制定戰略時，我們將做出這些決定，無論我們自己構建、合作還是購買它是否有意義，我們將把這些東西塞進去，如果它們有意義，以及如果整體價格合適。所以我們會這麼想。

But just -- I'll just bring you back to the 4 strategic imperatives that we have, which is continuing to be the best premium card, a provider of a consumer, looking at being that working capital provider for SME, becoming even more digital to our customers and adding more and more merchants. And as things make sense along that strategic continuum, we will act if appropriate.

但只是 - 我將帶您回到我們擁有的 4 個戰略要務，即繼續成為最好的高級卡、消費者的提供者、著眼於成為 SME 的營運資金提供者、變得更加數字化給我們的客戶，並增加越來越多的商家。如果事情在這個戰略連續體中有意義，我們將在適當的情況下採取行動。

Our next question will come from Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題將來自富國銀行的 Don Fandetti。

Good to see your mid-teens EPS. I don't know, can you guys hear me?

很高興看到你十幾歲的 EPS。我不知道，你們能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, we hear you, Don.

是的，我們聽到了，唐。

Okay. Great. Good to see the mid-teens growth in '24 and beyond. I mean, I think we all sort of think of low double digits. So good to see. I guess, Steve, could you dig in a little bit on this January and December Omicron slowdown? And maybe just talk about, did you see a dip, what kind of dip and has it stabilized? Just to give us some comfort on where to go.

好的。偉大的。很高興看到 24 年及以後的青少年成長。我的意思是，我想我們都會想到低兩位數。很高興看到。我想，史蒂夫，你能深入了解一下今年 1 月和 12 月的 Omicron 減速嗎？也許只是談談，你看到下跌了嗎，什麼樣的下跌並且穩定了？只是為了給我們一些關於去哪裡的安慰。

Yes. For us, I think one of the most leading -- the biggest leading indicator for us of what's going on is how people want to travel, right? Because as we know, people have shopped online. We haven't seen much of a slowdown from a goods and services perspective. What really is the delineating factor is, are people out and about?

是的。對我們來說，我認為最領先的 - 對我們來說正在發生的事情的最大領先指標之一是人們想要如何旅行，對吧？因為眾所周知，人們已經在網上購物。從商品和服務的角度來看，我們沒有看到太大的放緩。真正的劃定因素是，人們在外面嗎？

And we talked about the fourth quarter as being 24% up from a travel bookings perspective. However, the last few weeks of December, we did see a slowdown in terms of some of our travel bookings as people got, and rightfully so, a little Omicron nervous. But the first 2 weeks in January, our [US] (added by the company after the call) travel bookings are up 44% over 2019.

從旅遊預訂的角度來看，我們談到第四季度增長了 24%。然而，在 12 月的最後幾週，隨著人們的到來，我們確實看到我們的一些旅行預訂有所放緩，而且理所當然地，Omicron 有點緊張。但 1 月的前兩週，我們的 [美國]（由公司在電話會議後添加）旅行預訂量比 2019 年增長了 44%。

So what that tells me is people are ready to get out and get out and about again. And we'll see when Omicron peaks and when we get the next variant. But I think society is learning how to deal with this. And as Ed Bastian said on his earnings call, I think we'll ultimately move from pandemic to endemic, and we'll learn how to deal with this.

所以這告訴我的是，人們已經準備好出去走走走走。我們將看到 Omicron 何時達到頂峰以及何時獲得下一個變體。但我認為社會正在學習如何處理這個問題。正如埃德巴斯蒂安在財報電話會議上所說，我認為我們最終會從流行病轉向地方病，我們將學習如何應對。

So we really haven't seen a slowdown in our [bookings] (corrected by the company after the call) at all. In fact, we've seen an acceleration in travel bookings. So that gives us a lot of confidence. The other thing I would say, though, is that, remember, from a consumer perspective, we're back. I mean from a T&E perspective, we were up 8% over 2019 from a consumer perspective in the fourth quarter, and we anticipate that moving further north.

所以我們真的沒有看到我們的[預訂]（在電話會議後由公司更正）放緩。事實上，我們已經看到旅行預訂的加速。所以這給了我們很大的信心。不過，我要說的另一件事是，請記住，從消費者的角度來看，我們回來了。我的意思是，從 T&E 的角度來看，從消費者的角度來看，第四季度我們比 2019 年增長了 8%，我們預計這種情況會進一步向北移動。

Our final question will come from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

Let me ask of the aspirational guidance or long-term aspirational question again. But if we think about sort of the long-term revenue algorithm, right, is there anything that you're seeing inside your customer base, whether it be higher unit economics on the new accounts or evolving mix shift from different businesses, that's going to drive that above-average revenue growth relative to history?

讓我再問一下志向指導或長期志向問題。但是，如果我們考慮某種長期收入算法，對，您在客戶群中是否看到了任何東西，無論是新賬戶的更高單位經濟效益還是不同業務不斷變化的組合轉變，這將推動高於歷史平均水平的收入增長？

I guess it'd be good -- and maybe this is an Investor Day thing, it'd be good to just understand sort of what the key drivers will be as we look out, whether it be the baseline for economic growth versus share shift versus the different segments, right, like B2B, et cetera. I don't know. That's an open-ended question, but I'm just curious what your response to it.

我想這會很好 - 也許這是投資者日的事情，最好了解我們所關注的關鍵驅動因素，無論它是經濟增長與股票轉移的基線與不同的細分市場相比，對，如 B2B 等。我不知道。這是一個開放式問題，但我只是好奇你對此有何反應。

No, I got it. So -- all right. You're helping us a little bit with our outline for Investor Day. Thank you. But look, I think one of the things that people don't take into account when they're thinking about future revenue growth is retention of Card Members. One of the big drivers of our growth has been the fact that, gee, it's a lot easier when you keep on to your Card Members who are with you and are spending and so forth. And retention of Card Members is at an all-time high.

不，我明白了。所以——好吧。您正在幫助我們制定投資者日的大綱。謝謝你。但是看，我認為人們在考慮未來收入增長時沒有考慮的一件事是保留卡會員。我們增長的主要驅動力之一是，天哪，當您繼續使用與您在一起並正在消費等的卡會員時，這會容易得多。持卡人的留存率創歷史新高。

The other thing that's driving this is, obviously, the shift from a goods and services perspective. I mean, look, we grew -- we had more billings in 2021 than we had in the history of the company, and we're at 82% of our overall T&E billings in 2019. And theoretically, we're known as a T&E product, right? So I think we'll talk about this, but I think there are a number of things. I think it's retention.

顯然，推動這一趨勢的另一件事是從商品和服務角度的轉變。我的意思是，看，我們增長了——我們在 2021 年的賬單比公司歷史上的還要多，我們在 2019 年佔總 T&E 賬單的 82%。理論上，我們被稱為 T&E產品，對吧？所以我想我們會討論這個，但我認為有很多事情。我認為是保留。

I think as Jeff mentioned before, in response to Rick's question, the lifetime value of Card Members, obviously, getting Card Members earlier in their life, you're going to keep them longer, especially if you have the retention rates that we have. We'll continue from an SME perspective to evolve our product set and, therefore, evolve our revenues. And we'll continue to bring loan balances back to -- we were above-average industry growth from a loan balances perspective, and we think we'll get back there.

我認為正如 Jeff 之前提到的，在回答 Rick 的問題時，卡會員的終生價值，顯然，在他們生命的早期獲得卡會員，你會保留他們更長時間，特別是如果你有我們擁有的保留率。我們將從中小企業的角度繼續發展我們的產品組合，從而發展我們的收入。我們將繼續將貸款餘額恢復到 - 從貸款餘額的角度來看，我們的行業增長高於平均水平，我們認為我們會回到那裡。

So look, we'll give you some more insight on that. But I think those -- sort of from a high-level perspective, those are the things that give us all the confidence in the world.

所以看，我們會給你一些更多的見解。但我認為那些——從高層次的角度來看，這些是讓我們對這個世界充滿信心的東西。

With that, we will bring the call to an end. Thank you again for joining today's call and for your continued interest in American Express. The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions.

這樣，我們將結束通話。再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議並感謝您對美國運通的持續關注。 IR 團隊將隨時為您解答任何後續問題。

Alan, back to you.

艾倫，回到你身邊。

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast replay will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.americanexpress.com shortly after the call. You can also access a digital replay of the call at (866) 207-1041 or area code (402) 970-0847. The access code is 4117520 after 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time today, January 25, through midnight, February 1. That will conclude our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

女士們，先生們，電話會議後不久，我們的投資者關係網站 ir.americanexpress.com 將提供網絡直播重播。您還可以撥打 (866) 207-1041 或區號 (402) 970-0847 訪問電話的數字回放。下午 1:00 後訪問代碼為 4117520。今天東部時間，1 月 25 日，到 2 月 1 日午夜。這將結束我們今天的電話會議。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。