美國運通 (AXP) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American Express Q1 2021 Earnings Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，謝謝你們的支持。歡迎來到美國運通 2021 年第一季度財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音中。

I would now like to turn the call over to our host, Head of Investor Relations, Ms. Vivian Zhou. Please go ahead.

我現在想把電話轉給我們的主持人，投資者關係主管 Vivian Zhou 女士。請繼續。

Thank you, Allan, and thank you all for joining today's call.

謝謝你，艾倫，感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

As a reminder, before we begin, today's discussion contains forward-looking statements about the company's future business and financial performance. These are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation slides and in our reports on file with the SEC.

提醒一下，在我們開始之前，今天的討論包含有關公司未來業務和財務業績的前瞻性陳述。這些是基於管理層當前的預期，並受到風險和不確定性的影響。可能導致實際結果與這些陳述存在重大差異的因素包含在今天的演示幻燈片和我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的報告中。

The discussion today also contains non-GAAP financial measures. The comparable GAAP financial measures are included in this quarter's earnings materials as well as the earnings materials for the prior periods we discussed. All of these are posted on our website at ir.americanexpress.com.

今天的討論還包含非 GAAP 財務指標。可比較的 GAAP 財務指標包含在本季度的收益材料以及我們討論的前期收益材料中。所有這些都發佈在我們的網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上。

We will begin today with Steve Squeri, Chairman and CEO, who will start with some remarks about the company's progress and results. And then Jeff Campbell, Chief Financial Officer, will provide a more detailed review of our financial performance. After that, we will move to a Q&A session on the results with both Steve and Jeff.

今天我們將從董事長兼首席執行官 Steve Squeri 開始，他將首先介紹公司的進展和結果。然後首席財務官傑夫坎貝爾將對我們的財務業績進行更詳細的審查。之後，我們將與史蒂夫和傑夫一起進行關於結果的問答環節。

With that, let me turn it over to Steve.

有了這個，讓我把它交給史蒂夫。

Thanks, Vivian, and hello, everyone. We appreciate you joining us for today's call.

謝謝，薇薇安，大家好。感謝您加入我們今天的電話會議。

Early this morning, we reported first quarter revenues of $9.1 billion and earnings per share of $2.74. I'm pleased to say that our overall core business performance is slightly better than our expectations, with credit performance continuing to be best-in-class, and we're especially encouraged about the progress we're making toward our aspiration of returning to the original EPS expectations we had for 2020 in 2022.

今天一大早，我們報告第一季度收入為 91 億美元，每股收益為 2.74 美元。我很高興地說，我們的整體核心業務表現略好於我們的預期，信用表現繼續處於同類最佳水平，我們為實現重返美國的願望所取得的進展感到特別鼓舞我們在 2022 年對 2020 年的最初 EPS 預期。

As I discussed in January, we're looking at 2021 as a transition year, where our focus is on investing to rebuild growth momentum by firing up our core business, scaling next-horizon opportunities, while continuing to retain financial flexibility. And while I feel good about our results for the quarter, what I feel really good about is the progress we're making to rebuild momentum.

正如我在 1 月份所討論的那樣，我們將 2021 年視為一個過渡年，我們的重點是通過啟動我們的核心業務、擴大下一個地平線的機會，同時繼續保持財務靈活性來投資重建增長勢頭。雖然我對本季度的業績感到滿意，但我真正感到滿意的是我們在重建勢頭方面取得的進展。

When we talk about firing up the core, we're looking for meaningful progress in 4 areas: spending volumes coming back to pre-pandemic levels; bringing new customers into the franchise; retaining and deepening relationships with our current customers; and signing up additional merchants. We're making good progress in all these areas.

當我們談論啟動核心時，我們希望在 4 個領域取得有意義的進展：支出量恢復到大流行前水平；將新客戶帶入特許經營；保留並加深與我們現有客戶的關係；並與其他商家簽約。我們在所有這些領域都取得了良好的進展。

Overall spending on American Express Cards in Q1 continued the sequential improvements we saw through the last 2 quarters of 2020. U.S. volumes exceeded our expectations in the quarter, and spending in March from U.S. consumer and small- and medium-sized enterprise customers was higher than March 2019 levels. Non-U.S. volume lagged a bit due to renewed lockdowns in certain international countries.

第一季度美國運通卡的總體支出延續了我們在 2020 年最後兩個季度看到的環比改善。本季度美國的銷量超出了我們的預期，3 月份美國消費者和中小企業客戶的支出高於2019 年 3 月的水平。非美國由於某些國際國家重新實施封鎖，成交量略有滯後。

Excluding travel and entertainment categories, spending on our cards in Q1 was up 11% on an FX-adjusted basis versus 2019 levels. This marked the third straight quarter of positive growth. And although the T&E volumes were significantly lower in the first quarter versus last year, we've seen a steady sequential upward trend in monthly T&E spending and a noticeable improvement in recent weeks, particularly in the U.S., as the vaccine rollout accelerated.

不包括旅遊和娛樂類別，第一季度我們的信用卡支出在外匯調整的基礎上比 2019 年增長了 11%。這標誌著連續第三個季度實現正增長。儘管第一季度的 T&E 數量明顯低於去年，但我們看到每月 T&E 支出呈穩步連續上升趨勢，並且最近幾周明顯改善，尤其是在美國，因為疫苗推出速度加快。

These trends indicate that the pent-up demand for consumer travel we've been talking about is real, and it increases our confidence that the domestic -- that domestic consumer travel will continue to recover as the year progresses.

這些趨勢表明，我們一直在談論的消費者旅行被壓抑的需求是真實存在的，這增強了我們對國內——國內消費者旅行將隨著時間的推移繼續復甦的信心。

In terms of bringing new customers into the franchise, card acquisitions are also gaining momentum and were up sequentially in the quarter globally. In fact, new accounts acquired on key premium U.S. consumer and small business products were above 2019 levels and exceeded the prior quarters. Initial spending on these new cards is strong, and the average FICO scores of these new U.S. consumer and small business card members are higher than those acquired pre-pandemic.

在將新客戶帶入特許經營方面，卡的收購也在增長勢頭，並在全球範圍內連續上升。事實上，美國主要優質消費者和小型企業產品獲得的新客戶高於 2019 年的水平，並且超過了前幾個季度。這些新卡的初始消費強勁，這些新的美國消費者和小型企業卡會員的平均 FICO 分數高於大流行前獲得的分數。

In addition, card acquisitions in some of our largest travel co-brand portfolios have accelerated since the fourth quarter, an important indicator that travel remains an attractive category for consumers over the long term.

此外，自第四季度以來，我們一些最大的旅遊聯名品牌組合的信用卡收購速度加快，這是一個重要指標，表明從長遠來看，旅遊仍然是對消費者俱有吸引力的類別。

Another indicator of building momentum in our core business is retaining and increasing engagement with existing card members. We have a good story to tell here as well. Card Member attrition on our proprietary products, which also includes our co-brands, continues to be lower than in the previous years, and customer satisfaction levels remain higher than pre-COVID levels. The additional value we provided on several of our premium products helped drive Card Member loyalty and spending in 2020 and, as we believe, has been sustained into this year.

在我們的核心業務中建立勢頭的另一個指標是保留並增加與現有持卡人的互動。我們在這裡也有一個好故事要講。我們專有產品（包括我們的聯合品牌）的持卡人流失率繼續低於往年，客戶滿意度水平仍高於 COVID 之前的水平。我們為我們的幾款優質產品提供的額外價值幫助提高了持卡人的忠誠度和 2020 年的支出，而且我們相信，這種價值一直持續到今年。

For example, 95% of U.S. Platinum Card members who took advantage of the streaming credits and 88% who use wireless credits offered last year are continuing to spend in these categories months later. We're also seeing good engagement on the new offers we rolled out earlier in the first quarter for Platinum Card members, which includes statement credits with PayPal and other select merchants. The uptake on these offers are in line with the wireless and streaming offers we announced last year.

例如，使用去年提供的流媒體積分的美國白金卡會員中有 95% 和使用無線積分的 88% 在數月後繼續在這些類別中消費。我們還看到我們在第一季度早些時候為白金卡會員推出的新優惠獲得了良好的參與，其中包括 PayPal 和其他精選商家的對帳單信用額度。這些優惠的接受度與我們去年宣布的無線和流媒體優惠一致。

Overall, Card Member engagement with our digital channels and capabilities is at an all-time high, in most areas. For example, over 88% of our U.S. Card Members are making their payments digitally, and 87% use our website or app for self-service. The number of Amex Offers redeemed in Q1 increased fivefold versus last year's first quarter, topping 5.3 million redemptions.

總體而言，在大多數地區，持卡人對我們數字渠道和功能的參與度處於歷史最高水平。例如，超過 88% 的美國持卡人使用數字方式進行支付，87% 使用我們的網站或應用程序進行自助服務。與去年第一季度相比，第一季度兌換的 Amex Offer 數量增加了五倍，超過 530 萬次兌換。

Finally, we continue to see strong adoption of Pay It Plan It, our buy now pay later feature, after we recently expanded the capability to all U.S. consumer cards. Since launching Pay It Plan It, card members have created over 6 million plans, totaling over $5 billion of accounts receivable.

最後，我們繼續看到 Pay It Plan It 的廣泛採用，這是我們最近將功能擴展到所有美國消費卡之後的先買後付功能。自推出 Pay It Plan It 以來，持卡人創建了超過 600 萬個計劃，應收賬款總額超過 50 億美元。

Another key driver momentum is expanding merchant coverage. In the first quarter, we continued to make progress growing merchant coverage internationally, while maintaining our coverage levels in the U.S. When it comes to building momentum, we aren't just focused on the near term. We're also focused on scaling next-horizon opportunities that will drive growth over the longer term.

另一個關鍵驅動力是擴大商戶覆蓋範圍。在第一季度，我們繼續在擴大國際商戶覆蓋範圍方面取得進展，同時保持我們在美國的覆蓋水平。在建立勢頭方面，我們不僅僅關注短期。我們還專注於擴大將推動長期增長的下一個地平線機會。

China represents an exciting opportunity in this regard. As you know, developing our card processing network in Mainland China has been a priority for us, and we're pleased with our progress. Since getting the green light to start processing payments in China 8 months ago, we have reached mobile wallet parity coverage through our partnerships with China's major mobile wallet providers. And to date, we have added over 14 million merchants to the network at the point of sale with more to come.

在這方面，中國代表著一個令人興奮的機會。如您所知，在中國大陸發展我們的卡處理網絡一直是我們的首要任務，我們對我們的進展感到滿意。自 8 個月前獲准在中國開始處理支付以來，我們通過與中國主要移動錢包提供商的合作，實現了移動錢包平價覆蓋。迄今為止，我們已經在銷售點將超過 1400 萬商戶添加到網絡中，並且還會有更多商戶加入。

A key enabler of our coverage growth in China is the progress we're making to modernize our network, particularly in adding the capability to process debit transactions globally, which is an essential need for customers in China and helps us prepare for potential additional debit applications elsewhere. We remain focused on scaling our China business by acquiring card members through the relationships we've established with 16 issuing partners, and I look forward to sharing more highlights of our progress over the course of the year.

我們在中國的覆蓋範圍增長的一個關鍵推動因素是我們在網絡現代化方面取得的進展，特別是在增加處理全球借記交易的能力方面，這是中國客戶的基本需求，並幫助我們為潛在的額外借記申請做好準備別處。我們仍然專注於通過與 16 家發行合作夥伴建立的關係來獲取會員卡，從而擴大我們的中國業務，我期待著分享我們在這一年中取得的更多進展。

In our commercial business, our growth has been and will continue to be driven primarily by small- and medium-sized enterprises. A key element of our longer-term growth strategy for SME franchise is to deepen our relationships with current customers and attract new ones by offering a range of supplier payment and cash flow management solutions, both on and beyond the card, giving business owners more tools to help them manage their businesses.

在我們的商業業務中，我們的增長一直並將繼續主要由中小企業推動。我們針對中小企業特許經營權的長期增長戰略的一個關鍵要素是通過提供一系列供應商支付和現金流管理解決方案來加深我們與現有客戶的關係並吸引新客戶，包括卡內和卡外，為企業主提供更多工具幫助他們管理業務。

Kabbage is one example of how we plan to bring this strategy to life. We've been focused on integrating Kabbage's digital capabilities into our business. And in Q1, we began the rollout of the Kabbage platform, which includes a business checking account and working capital solutions to our small business customers.

Kabbage 是我們計劃如何將這一戰略付諸實踐的一個例子。我們一直專注於將 Kabbage 的數字功能整合到我們的業務中。在第一季度，我們開始推出 Kabbage 平台，其中包括面向小型企業客戶的商業支票賬戶和營運資金解決方案。

In our consumer business, Resy, our online dining platform, helps drive bookings and spending at restaurants, which is a top category for our Card Members. When a pandemic hit, Resy quickly pivoted its value proposition for restaurant owners to help them expand their offerings and find new ways to attract customers, including enabling takeout, meal kits, family meals and virtual events.

在我們的消費者業務中，我們的在線餐飲平台 Resy 有助於推動餐廳的預訂和消費，這是我們持卡人的首選類別。當大流行來襲時，Resy 迅速將其價值主張轉向餐廳老闆，以幫助他們擴大產品範圍並找到吸引顧客的新方法，包括啟用外賣、餐包、家庭聚餐和虛擬活動。

Resy also provided a number of special offers for Amex card members. As a result, over the past year, Resy has seen significant growth in engagement for both consumers and restaurants. In fact, we've seen a number of reservations booked on the platform more than doubled since December, and Amex card members who use Resy are some of our highest spending and most profitable customers.

Resy 還為美國運通卡會員提供了多項特別優惠。因此，在過去的一年裡，Resy 的消費者和餐廳參與度都顯著提高。事實上，自去年 12 月以來，我們已經看到該平台上的預訂數量翻了一番以上，使用 Resy 的美國運通卡會員是我們消費最高、利潤最高的客戶之一。

Those are just some of the examples of our progress in rebuilding our growth momentum, both in our core business and with next-horizon opportunities. Importantly, as we've increased our investments in both categories, we've also been focused on maintaining our financial strength and flexibility. We resumed share repurchases this quarter, and our capital ratios continue to be well above our targets.

這些只是我們在重建增長勢頭方面取得進展的一些例子，包括我們的核心業務和下一個地平線的機會。重要的是，隨著我們增加對這兩個類別的投資，我們也一直專注於保持我們的財務實力和靈活性。本季度我們恢復了股票回購，我們的資本比率繼續遠高於我們的目標。

Before I hand the call over to Jeff, I want to share some thoughts on where I see things heading in the near term. As I sit here a little over a year since the global COVID pandemic started, I'm optimistic that the hopeful signs we're seeing as vaccine distribution accelerates will continue and get stronger as we move through the year.

在我把電話轉給 Jeff 之前，我想分享一些關於我對近期事情發展方向的看法。自從全球 COVID 大流行開始以來，我坐在這裡已經一年多了，我樂觀地認為，隨著疫苗分發的加速，我們看到的充滿希望的跡象將在今年繼續並變得更加強大。

Of course, we're still cautiously keeping an eye on the progression of the virus and its impact on local lockdowns and cross-border travel restrictions in certain areas. But there are clear indicators that the economy is improving, particularly in the U.S., and I believe this will translate into continued steady improvements for American Express.

當然，我們仍在謹慎關注病毒的發展及其對某些地區的當地封鎖和跨境旅行限制的影響。但有明確的跡象表明經濟正在改善，尤其是在美國，我相信這將轉化為美國運通的持續穩步改善。

Given all of this, we remain firmly committed to executing on our 2020 investment strategy for a building growth momentum for the longer term. As I said last quarter, we're not focused on achieving a particular EPS target this year. Instead, we're focused on achieving our aspiration of returning to the original EPS expectations we had for 2020 in 2022, and for the company to be positioned to execute on our financial growth algorithm going forward.

鑑於所有這些，我們仍然堅定地致力於執行我們的 2020 年投資戰略，以建立長期增長勢頭。正如我上個季度所說，我們今年並不專注於實現特定的 EPS 目標。相反，我們專注於實現我們的願望，即在 2022 年恢復到我們對 2020 年的最初 EPS 預期，並使公司能夠在未來執行我們的財務增長算法。

I'm encouraged by the results we've seen thus far in 2021, which makes me even more confident in our roadmap for achieving our 2022 aspiration. I'm particularly proud of our colleagues who have remained nimble and focused through the uncertainties of the past year. Their dedication and hard work, along with the flexibility of our business model, the loyalty of our customer base, the strength of our partnerships and the value of our brand make me feel very good about the future.

我對 2021 年迄今所取得的成果感到鼓舞，這讓我對我們實現 2022 年願景的路線圖更有信心。我為我們的同事感到特別自豪，他們在過去一年的不確定性中保持敏捷和專注。他們的奉獻和辛勤工作，以及我們商業模式的靈活性、客戶群的忠誠度、我們合作夥伴的實力和我們品牌的價值，讓我對未來充滿信心。

Jeff will now walk you through our results, and we will take questions after that.

Jeff 現在將向您介紹我們的結果，之後我們將回答問題。

Well, thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. It's good to be here today to talk about our first quarter results, which reflect good progress towards the aspirations we have for 2022 that Steve just outlined.

好吧，謝謝你，史蒂夫，大家早上好。很高興今天能在這裡談論我們的第一季度業績，這反映了我們在實現史蒂夫剛剛概述的 2022 年願景方面取得了良好進展。

As I've said since the beginning of the pandemic last year, the key drivers of our financial performance in this environment remain volume and credit trends, along with, this year, the marketing investments we are making to rebuild growth momentum. I'll spend most of my time this morning on these topics. But first, looking at the summary financials on Slide 3.

正如我自去年大流行開始以來所說的那樣，在這種環境下我們財務業績的主要驅動因素仍然是數量和信貸趨勢，以及今年我們為重建增長勢頭而進行的營銷投資。今天早上我將把大部分時間花在這些話題上。但首先，請查看幻燈片 3 上的財務摘要。

When you consider year-over-year results, last year's first quarter included 2 months of pre-pandemic results. And so as you would expect, first quarter revenues of $9.1 billion were down 13% year-over-year on an FX-adjusted basis. But in contrast, while we don't typically look at monthly results, were you to look at our revenues in just the month of March, you'd see that they were up 7% year-over-year.

當您考慮同比結果時，去年第一季度包括大流行前 2 個月的結果。正如您所預料的那樣，第一季度經外匯調整後的收入為 91 億美元，同比下降 13%。但相比之下，雖然我們通常不查看月度結果，但如果你只查看 3 月份的收入，你會發現它們同比增長了 7%。

Our first quarter net income was $2.2 billion, and earnings per share was $2.74. Included in these results is a $1.05 billion credit reserve release due to improvements in the macroeconomic outlook and continued strong credit performance.

我們第一季度的淨收入為 22 億美元，每股收益為 2.74 美元。由於宏觀經濟前景的改善和持續強勁的信貸表現，這些結果中包括 10.5 億美元的信貸儲備釋放。

So now let's get into the first key driver of our performance volumes, beginning with a few comments on some nomenclature changes we have made to our volume reporting. Thinking ahead on how we expect our card processing network in Mainland China to grow in the coming quarters and years, we have renamed what we previously called GNS billed business as processed volumes because our business model in China is unique and different from what we do with our GNS partners in other regions.

因此，現在讓我們進入我們性能量的第一個關鍵驅動因素，首先是對我們對量報告所做的一些術語更改的一些評論。考慮到未來幾個季度和幾年我們在中國大陸的銀行卡處理網絡的增長預期，我們將之前稱為 GNS 計費業務的業務重命名為處理量，因為我們在中國的業務模式是獨一無二的，與我們所做的不同我們在其他地區的 GNS 合作夥伴。

We have also changed what we previously referred to as proprietary billed business to just billed business and renamed what we used to call our overall volumes from billed business to network volumes. You will see we've recast prior periods in the disclosures that accompany our earnings release as well as on appendix, Slide 27.

我們還將之前稱為專有計費業務的內容更改為僅計費業務，並將我們過去稱呼我們的總業務量從計費業務重命名為網絡業務量。您會看到我們在收益發布隨附的披露以及附錄幻燈片 27 中重述了前期數據。

So with these changes in mind, moving on to our volume performance on Slide 4, we saw continued recovery across all of our volumes in the first quarter, with total network and billed business volumes down 8% and 9%, respectively, and processed volumes down only 1%, all on an FX-adjusted basis.

因此，考慮到這些變化，繼續我們在幻燈片 4 上的銷量表現，我們看到第一季度我們所有銷量的持續復甦，總網絡和計費業務量分別下降了 8% 和 9%，以及處理量僅下降 1%，均按外匯調整後的基礎計算。

Getting into the details of our billed business growth, which you will see several views of on Slides 5 through 10, we've shown first quarter trends on both a year-over-year basis and relative to 2019 in order to provide a clearer picture of how spending is recovering, as we begin to lap the onset of the pandemic in March of last year. I'd also note that the trends we've seen in the first 2 weeks of April are a continuation of the trends we saw exiting the first quarter that I'll focus on this morning.

進入我們的計費業務增長的細節，您將在幻燈片 5 到 10 上看到幾個視圖，我們已經顯示了第一季度的同比趨勢和相對於 2019 年的趨勢，以便提供更清晰的畫面隨著我們在去年 3 月開始應對大流行病的爆發，了解支出是如何恢復的。我還要指出，我們在 4 月的前 2 週看到的趨勢是我們在第一季度結束時看到的趨勢的延續，我今天早上將重點關注這一點。

In addition, it remains important to look at spending on travel and entertainment categories separately from spending in other categories, which we will now be calling goods and services spending, given the very different impacts the pandemic has had on these 2 very different categories.

此外，將旅行和娛樂類別的支出與其他類別的支出分開看待仍然很重要，我們現在將其稱為商品和服務支出，因為大流行對這兩個截然不同的類別產生了截然不同的影響。

Overall, there are a few key points I'd suggest as the takeaways on volumes from all of these slides. First, there are clear signs of volume momentum that we feel good about. As you can see on Slide 5, our overall billed business volume growth continued to recover steadily throughout the months of the first quarter, with the reopening of the economy and rollout of the vaccines progressing well in the U.S. and certain other geographies.

總的來說，我建議從所有這些幻燈片中總結出幾個關鍵點。首先，有明顯的成交量勢頭跡象讓我們感覺良好。正如您在幻燈片 5 中看到的那樣，隨著經濟的重新開放和疫苗的推出在美國和其他某些地區進展順利，我們在第一季度的幾個月內整體計費業務量增長繼續穩步回升。

Spending on goods and services, which represents the vast majority or 86% of our volumes, exceeded our expectations, growing 6% year-over-year and up 11% versus 2019 in the quarter and up 15% in the month of March.

商品和服務支出超出了我們的預期，占我們總量的絕大部分或 86%，同比增長 6%，與 2019 年相比增長 11%，3 月份增長 15%。

Spending on travel and entertainment also showed sequential improvement given the progress on the medical front in the U.S., further reinforcing our view that consumer and small business travel will recover over time.

鑑於美國醫療方面的進步，旅遊和娛樂支出也呈現環比改善，進一步強化了我們的觀點，即消費者和小型商務旅行將隨著時間的推移而復蘇。

Second, the growth in goods and services spending has continued to improve steadily in both our consumer and commercial businesses. In consumer as shown on Slide 6, we continue to see strong online and card-not-present spend growth, which was up 23% year-over-year this quarter, even as the recovery of offline spending accelerated, driving goods and services volumes up 7% year-over-year and 13% versus 2019.

其次，我們的消費和商業業務的商品和服務支出增長繼續穩步提高。在消費者方面，如幻燈片 6 所示，我們繼續看到強勁的在線和無卡支出增長，本季度同比增長 23%，儘管線下支出的複蘇加速，推動了商品和服務的數量同比增長 7%，與 2019 年相比增長 13%。

In commercial, as you can see on Slide 7, SME spending remains the most resilient across our customer types, supported by continued growth in B2B spending, which drove overall commercial spend on goods and services up 5% year-over-year and up 8% versus 2019 in the first quarter.

在商業方面，正如您在幻燈片 7 中看到的那樣，在 B2B 支出持續增長的支持下，中小企業支出在我們的客戶類型中仍然是最具彈性的，這推動商品和服務的整體商業支出同比增長 5%，增長 8 % 與第一季度的 2019 年相比。

Third, we are seeing a faster pace of spending recovery in the U.S. versus other regions. As shown on Slide 8, the total volumes from our U.S. consumer and SME customers are recovering faster than other customer types and were up 1% versus 2019 levels in the month of March, even with the continued drag of T&E spend not yet fully recovering.

第三，與其他地區相比，我們看到美國的支出複蘇步伐更快。如幻燈片 8 所示，我們的美國消費者和中小企業客戶的總銷量比其他客戶類型恢復得更快，並且在 3 月份比 2019 年的水平增長了 1%，即使 T&E 支出的持續拖累尚未完全恢復。

International consumer and SME spending, on the other hand, is recovering more slowly due to renewed restrictions in key international geographies and the fact that, historically, we tend to have more travel-related spending in our international regions.

另一方面，由於主要國際地區重新實施限制，而且從歷史上看，我們在國際地區往往有更多與旅遊相關的支出，因此國際消費者和中小企業支出的複蘇速度較慢。

And large and global corporate card spending, which historically has been primarily travel and entertainment, continued to be down the most during the first quarter, as we expected, since this will be the last customer type to see travel recover.

正如我們預期的那樣，從歷史上看主要用於旅遊和娛樂的大型全球企業卡支出在第一季度繼續下降最多，因為這將是最後一種看到旅遊復甦的客戶類型。

Fourth, T&E spending, though still down significantly, did improve steadily across all categories throughout the months of the first quarter, and consumer T&E continued to recover faster than that of SMEs and large corporations, as you can see on Slides 9 and 10. We expect this trend to continue given the pent-up demand to travel that we see in our consumer base and the positive early signs of domestic travel recovery that we see in the U.S. as the vaccine rollout progresses.

第四，T&E 支出雖然仍顯著下降，但在第一季度的幾個月內確實在所有類別中穩步增長，消費者 T&E 的恢復速度繼續快於中小企業和大公司，如幻燈片 9 和 10 所示。我們鑑於我們在消費者群體中看到被壓抑的旅行需求，以及隨著疫苗推出的進展，我們在美國看到國內旅行複甦的積極早期跡象，預計這一趨勢將繼續下去。

So to sum up on spending volumes, we feel good about the steady growth we are seeing in goods and services spending, and we expect it to continue to grow throughout 2021. On T&E spending, the trends we've seen in the first quarter are encouraging and give us more confidence in our current assumption that by Q4, T&E spending will have recovered to around 70% of its Q4 2019 levels, led by recovery in U.S. consumer domestic travel.

因此，總結一下支出量，我們對商品和服務支出的穩定增長感到滿意，我們預計它將在整個 2021 年繼續增長。在 T&E 支出方面，我們在第一季度看到的趨勢是鼓舞人心，讓我們對目前的假設更有信心，即到第四季度，在美國消費者國內旅遊復甦的帶動下，差旅與娛樂支出將恢復到 2019 年第四季度水平的 70% 左右。

Turning next to the other key volume driver, receivable and loan balances on Slide 11. Receivable balances were down 4% sequentially and 6% year-over-year in the first quarter, in line with spending volumes. Loan balances, however, were down 5% sequentially and 13% year-over-year, more than spending volumes, as we continued to see the liquidity and strength amongst our customer base leading to higher paydown rates, which relates to the very strong credit performance I'll talk about in just a moment. Looking forward, I would expect the recovery in loan balances to continue to lag the recovery in spending volumes.

接下來轉向幻燈片 11 上的另一個關鍵數量驅動因素，即應收賬款和貸款餘額。第一季度應收賬款餘額環比下降 4%，同比下降 6%，與支出量一致。然而，貸款餘額環比下降 5%，同比下降 13%，超過支出量，因為我們繼續看到我們客戶群的流動性和實力導致更高的還款率，這與非常強勁的信貸有關性能我稍後會談到。展望未來，我預計貸款餘額的複蘇將繼續落後於支出量的複蘇。

So turning next to our second key driver, credit and provision on Slides 12 through 16. As you flip through these slides, there are a few key points I'd like you to take away. We continue to see extremely strong credit performance, with card member loans and receivables write-off dollars, excluding GCP, down 53% and 82% year-over-year, respectively, as you can see on Slide 12.

因此，接下來轉到我們的第二個關鍵驅動因素，幻燈片 12 到 16 上的信貸和準備金。當你翻閱這些幻燈片時，我希望你能記住幾個關鍵點。我們繼續看到極其強勁的信貸表現，持卡人貸款和應收賬款註銷美元（不包括 GCP）分別同比下降 53% 和 82%，如幻燈片 12 所示。

We attribute this performance to our robust risk management practices, the premium nature of our customer base as well as the unprecedented level of government stimulants and forbearance programs. Clearly, macroeconomic forecasts have improved over the last 90 days, as you can see on Slide 13. However, we still have 2 very different macroeconomic forecast scenarios, and we continued to put significant weight on the downside scenario in the modeling we did to calculate our first quarter credit reserves.

我們將這一業績歸功於我們穩健的風險管理實踐、我們客戶群的優質性質以及前所未有的政府興奮劑和寬容計劃。顯然，宏觀經濟預測在過去 90 天內有所改善，正如您在幻燈片 13 中看到的那樣。但是，我們仍然有 2 種截然不同的宏觀經濟預測情景，我們繼續在我們計算的模型中非常重視下行情景我們的第一季度信貸儲備。

The impact of the improvement in the set of macroeconomic assumptions on our reserve models, coupled with the sequential decline in loan and receivables balances and our strong credit performance, led us to release $1.05 billion of reserves. This reserve release and our extremely low write-offs drove a provision expense benefit of $675 million in the first quarter, as shown on Slide 14.

宏觀經濟假設集的改善對我們的準備金模型的影響，加上貸款和應收賬款餘額的連續下降以及我們強勁的信貸表現，導致我們釋放了 10.5 億美元的準備金。如幻燈片 14 所示，這一準備金釋放和我們極低的註銷在第一季度推動了 6.75 億美元的撥備費用收益。

That said, the balances enrolled in our financial relief programs are still $2.1 billion higher than they were pre-pandemic, as you can see on Slide 15. In the coming quarters, we will see how the Card Members exiting our financial relief programs will perform. That will be an important milestone for us, though I would observe that all of the early exit performance indicators have looked quite strong.

儘管如此，正如您在幻燈片 15 中看到的那樣，我們的經濟救助計劃中註冊的餘額仍比大流行前高出 21 億美元。在接下來的幾個季度中，我們將看到退出我們經濟救助計劃的持卡人的表現如何.這對我們來說將是一個重要的里程碑，儘管我會觀察到所有早期退出績效指標看起來都非常強勁。

There also continues to be some uncertainty in the medical environment and the vaccine rollout, and we'll have to see how that plays out. And so we continue to hold a significant amount of reserves. Slide 16 shows you this, and that we ended the first quarter with $4.8 billion of reserves, representing 6.4% of our loan balances and 0.5% of our Card Member receivable balances, respectively.

醫療環境和疫苗的推出也仍然存在一些不確定性，我們必須看看結果如何。因此，我們繼續持有大量儲備。幻燈片 16 向您展示了這一點，我們在第一季度結束時擁有 48 億美元的準備金，分別占我們貸款餘額的 6.4% 和我們持卡人應收賬款餘額的 0.5%。

Moving on to our third key driver, marketing investments to rebuild growth momentum on Slide 17. We invested $1 billion in marketing in the first quarter as we continued to ramp up new card acquisitions, while maintaining our value-injection efforts. We acquired 2.1 million new cards in the first quarter, up around 20% sequentially.

繼續我們的第三個關鍵驅動因素，營銷投資以重建幻燈片 17 上的增長勢頭。我們在第一季度投資了 10 億美元用於營銷，因為我們繼續增加新卡的收購，同時保持我們的價值注入努力。我們在第一季度獲得了 210 萬張新卡，環比增長約 20%。

Importantly, the number of new accounts we acquired on our premium fee-based products was up 35% versus Q4, with acquisition volumes on many of our premium U.S. consumer and small business products exceeding 2019 levels. As Steve mentioned, in 2021, our focus is on rebuilding growth momentum and maximizing our investments to do so.

重要的是，我們通過付費收費產品獲得的新客戶數量比第四季度增長了 35%，我們許多優質美國消費者和小型企業產品的收購量超過了 2019 年的水平。正如史蒂夫所提到的，在 2021 年，我們的重點是重建增長勢頭並為此最大化我們的投資。

As a result, we continued to expect to spend a little over $4.5 billion in marketing this full year. Our ultimate marketing investment levels will be governed by the universe of attractive investment opportunities and the pace at which we wind down our value-injection efforts, as our customers begin again to experience the full benefits of our existing value propositions.

因此，我們繼續預計今年全年的營銷支出略高於 45 億美元。隨著我們的客戶再次開始體驗我們現有價值主張的全部好處，我們最終的營銷投資水平將取決於有吸引力的投資機會的範圍以及我們結束價值注入工作的速度。

So what do our 3 key drivers mean for our financial performance this quarter? As I said earlier, year-over-year revenues on Slides 18 and 19 are impacted by the prior year quarter, including 2 pre-pandemic months. So first quarter revenues were down 13% year-over-year on an FX-adjusted basis primarily driven by volume declines, impacting net discount revenue and net interest income, as well as declines in travel-related revenues and delinquencies, impacting other commissions and fees and other revenues.

那麼我們的 3 個關鍵驅動因素對我們本季度的財務業績意味著什麼？正如我之前所說，幻燈片 18 和 19 的同比收入受到上一季度的影響，包括大流行前的兩個月。因此，經外匯調整後，第一季度收入同比下降 13%，主要原因是銷量下降，影響了淨折扣收入和淨利息收入，以及與旅遊相關的收入和拖欠率下降，影響了其他佣金和費和其他收入。

Net card fees, however, grew 10% year-over-year in the first quarter, as you can see on Slide 20, demonstrating the impact of the strong continued Card Member engagement that Steve discussed. Looking forward, I expect the growth rate of net card fees will slow for a few more quarters driven by our decision last year to pull back on new card acquisitions as we were managing through the peak of uncertainty during the beginning of the pandemic. Given the renewed momentum, we are now beginning to see in new card acquisitions, I would expect net card fee growth to then reaccelerate.

然而，正如您在幻燈片 20 中看到的那樣，第一季度的淨卡費用同比增長 10%，這表明了 Steve 討論的持卡會員持續強勁參與的影響。展望未來，我預計淨卡費用的增長率將再放緩幾個季度，這是由於我們去年決定撤回新卡收購，因為我們在大流行開始時正在應對不確定性的高峰期。鑑於新的勢頭，我們現在開始在新卡收購中看到，我預計淨卡費用增長將重新加速。

Moving on to net interest income on Slide 21. You see that net interest income declined 22% year-over-year on an FX-adjusted basis. While the primary driver of this is the decline in loan volumes, net interest yield on our Card Member loans also decreased 60 basis points due to the higher paydown rates from revolving Card Members on our credit card products. Looking forward, I expect the recovery in net interest income to lag the recovery in loan volumes.

轉到幻燈片 21 的淨利息收入。您會看到經外匯調整後的淨利息收入同比下降 22%。雖然造成這種情況的主要原因是貸款量下降，但由於循環卡會員對我們信用卡產品的還款率較高，我們卡會員貸款的淨利息收益率也下降了 60 個基點。展望未來，我預計淨利息收入的複蘇將滯後於貸款量的複蘇。

Volumes are also the primary driver of the discount revenue trends you see on Slide 22. As expected, though, the contraction in discount revenue continued to be a bit larger than the decline in billed business. The average discount rate declined 8 basis points year-over-year driven by the greater declines we saw in T&E spending where we, on average, earn higher discount rates.

數量也是您在幻燈片 22 上看到的折扣收入趨勢的主要驅動力。不過，正如預期的那樣，折扣收入的收縮繼續略大於收費業務的下降。平均貼現率同比下降 8 個基點，原因是我們在 T&E 支出中看到的降幅更大，平均而言，我們獲得了更高的貼現率。

The year-over-year erosion in the first quarter is a bit less than in Q4 due to the recovery in T&E spending throughout the quarter that I spoke about earlier. Looking forward, we still expect that if T&E spending recovers to around 70% of 2019 levels by Q4, as I mentioned previously, you'd probably see overall revenue growth of around 9% to 10% for full year 2021. And if T&E recovers more slowly or quickly, you could see full year revenue growth, but somewhat lower or higher than that 9% or 10%.

由於我之前談到的整個季度 T&E 支出的複蘇，第一季度的同比下降略低於第四季度。展望未來，我們仍然預計，如果 T&E 支出在第四季度恢復到 2019 年水平的 70% 左右，正如我之前提到的那樣，您可能會看到 2021 年全年的整體收入增長約 9% 至 10%。如果 T&E 恢復更慢或更快，你可以看到全年收入增長，但略低於或高於 9% 或 10%。

Moving on to expenses. We are continuing to break out on Slide 23 our variable customer engagement expenses, which moved naturally in line with spend volumes and benefits usage and marketing and OpEx, which are driven by management decisions. Variable customer engagement expenses in total were down 10% year-over-year. Relative to the past few quarters, we did experience higher usage of travel-related benefits and rewards, which we see as a clear sign of the pent-up demand we've been talking about. Looking forward, a good way to think about these variable customer engagement expenses is that I'd expect them to be about 40% of our total revenues for the next few quarters.

繼續討論費用。我們將繼續在幻燈片 23 上打破我們可變的客戶參與費用，這些費用自然地與支出量和福利使用以及營銷和運營支出保持一致，這是由管理決策驅動的。可變客戶參與費用總額同比下降 10%。相對於過去幾個季度，我們確實體驗到了更多與旅行相關的福利和獎勵的使用，我們認為這是我們一直在談論的被壓抑需求的明顯跡象。展望未來，考慮這些可變的客戶參與費用的一個好方法是，我預計它們將佔未來幾個季度總收入的 40% 左右。

Moving on to operating expenses. You can see that they were down 10% year-over-year in the first quarter primarily driven by a few sizable gains in our Amex Ventures equity investment portfolio, partially offset by some higher deferred and other compensation expenses. In 2021, we still expect our operating expenses to be around $11.5 billion, below 2019 levels, as we continue to keep tight control over our operating expenses, while also investing to rebuild growth momentum.

繼續經營費用。你可以看到，他們在第一季度同比下降了 10%，這主要是由於我們的 Amex Ventures 股權投資組合獲得了一些可觀的收益，部分被一些更高的遞延和其他補償費用所抵消。到 2021 年，我們仍預計我們的運營支出約為 115 億美元，低於 2019 年的水平，因為我們將繼續嚴格控制運營支出，同時也進行投資以重建增長勢頭。

Turning next to capital and liquidity. On Slide 23, our capital and liquidity positions remain tremendously strong. Our CET1 ratio increased to 14.8% in the first quarter, our highest level since we began reporting this ratio. And our cash and investment balance ended the quarter at [$61.6 billion] (corrected by company after the call), far above our target levels, driven by the shrinkage in our balance sheet over the past year.

接下來轉向資本和流動性。在幻燈片 23 中，我們的資本和流動性狀況仍然非常強勁。我們的 CET1 比率在第一季度增加到 14.8%，這是我們開始報告該比率以來的最高水平。我們的現金和投資餘額在本季度結束時為 [616 億美元]（公司在電話會議後更正），遠高於我們的目標水平，這是受過去一年資產負債表縮減的推動。

We resumed share repurchases in the first quarter, repurchasing 3.3 million shares, and we remain committed to our dividend distribution and to our long-term CET1 target ratio of 10% to 11%. In Q2, we plan to repurchase shares up to the maximum amount permitted under the Fed authorized capacity of around $900 million. Looking forward, our capital distributions will be a function of the Fed's guidelines, our capital generation and the growth in our balance sheet.

我們在第一季度恢復了股票回購，回購了 330 萬股，我們仍然致力於我們的股息分配和我們 10% 至 11% 的長期 CET1 目標比率。在第二季度，我們計劃回購股票至美聯儲授權能力允許的最高金額約 9 億美元。展望未來，我們的資本分配將取決於美聯儲的指導方針、我們的資本生成和資產負債表的增長。

So let's close by talking about what the signs of momentum we saw in Q1 might mean for the future. In January, I laid out 2 scenarios of potential outcomes for 2021 that were primarily based on what happened with credit reserves.

因此，讓我們最後談談我們在第一季度看到的勢頭跡像對未來可能意味著什麼。一月份，我列出了 2021 年的兩種潛在結果情景，這些情景主要基於信貸儲備的情況。

Our original scenario 1, or low scenario, assumed a much worse medical and economic environment this year, and that we would not release any credit reserves in the year. Now 3 months into the year, the macro outlook has improved, and credit performance has remained very strong, so we've already released $1.05 billion of reserves. This still leaves us, however, with a lot of credit reserves we've built due to economic uncertainty.

我們最初的情景 1，或低情景，假設今年的醫療和經濟環境要糟糕得多，我們不會在這一年釋放任何信貸儲備。今年 3 個月以來，宏觀前景有所改善，信貸表現仍然非常強勁，因此我們已經釋放了 10.5 億美元的準備金。然而，由於經濟的不確定性，這仍然給我們留下了大量的信貸儲備。

So our updated scenario 1 on Slide 25 assumes that this uncertainty persists, that the medical and economic environment does not improve further and, that we, therefore, do not release any additional credit reserves this year. Such an economic outcome would likely put some pressure on our current assumption of a 70% T&E recovery by Q4 and likely drive a somewhat weaker revenue recovery. The combination of these things could lead to an EPS outcome as low as around $6 per share.

因此，我們在幻燈片 25 上更新的情景 1 假設這種不確定性持續存在，醫療和經濟環境沒有進一步改善，因此我們今年不會釋放任何額外的信貸儲備。這樣的經濟結果可能會給我們目前的第 4 季度 T&E 恢復 70% 的假設帶來一些壓力，並可能導致收入恢復有所減弱。這些事情的結合可能導致每股收益低至 6 美元左右。

Our updated scenario 2 in contrast assumes that we continue to see strong credit performance and a steady improvement in the economic outlook, leading to less uncertainty and having no need to maintain our current level of credit reserves. This sort of economic outcome would also likely drive a somewhat stronger revenue recovery in line with the 9% to 10% revenue growth assumption I spoke about earlier. In this scenario, our 2021 EPS could be as high as $7.50.

相比之下，我們更新後的情景 2 假設我們繼續看到強勁的信貸表現和經濟前景的穩步改善，從而減少不確定性，並且無需維持我們目前的信貸儲備水平。這種經濟結果也可能會推動更強勁的收入復甦，這與我之前談到的 9% 至 10% 的收入增長假設相符。在這種情況下，我們 2021 年的每股收益可能高達 7.50 美元。

More importantly, in either scenario, as I said earlier, our marketing investment levels will be governed by the universe of attractive investment opportunities that we see, not by a focus on any specific EPS outcome for 2021. What we are focused on is managing the company to rebuild growth momentum and achieving our aspiration of being back to the original EPS expectations that we had for 2020 in 2022, and for the company to be positioned to execute on its financial growth algorithm beyond 2022.

更重要的是，在任何一種情況下，正如我之前所說，我們的營銷投資水平將取決於我們看到的有吸引力的投資機會，而不是關注 2021 年任何具體的 EPS 結果。我們關注的是管理公司重建增長勢頭並實現我們的願望，即在 2022 年回到我們對 2020 年的最初 EPS 預期，並使公司能夠在 2022 年以後執行其財務增長算法。

And with that, I'll turn the call back over to Vivian.

有了這個，我會把電話轉回 Vivian。

Thank you, Jeff. (Operator Instructions) Thank you for your cooperation. And with that, the operator will now open up the line for questions. Allan?

謝謝你，傑夫。 （操作員說明）感謝您的合作。有了這個，接線員現在將打開問題熱線。艾倫？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from the line of Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Don Fandetti 與 Wells Fargo 的合作。

(inaudible) 4% in March versus '19.

（聽不清）3 月份與 19 年相比增長 4%。

Don? Don, could you start again? We missed the beginning.

大學教師？唐，你能重新開始嗎？我們錯過了開始。

Sure. No problem. So Jeff, if you look at your T&E down about 54% versus '19 in March, and April sounds like it gained a lot of momentum, it looks like down 30% for Q4 would be pretty conservative.

當然。沒問題。所以傑夫，如果你看看你的 T&E 比 3 月份的 19% 下降了大約 54%，而 4 月份聽起來它獲得了很大的動力，那麼第四季度下降 30% 似乎是相當保守的。

How are you thinking about that? And also what are your T&E assumptions as you sort of look at your '22 aspirational guide?

你怎麼想的？還有，當您查看您的 22 年志向指南時，您的 T&E 假設是什麼？

Well, maybe I'll start. And then, Steve, you might want to add a few comments. So let me work backwards.

好吧，也許我會開始。然後，史蒂夫，你可能想添加一些評論。所以讓我倒著工作。

So in 2022, we're really assuming, Don, that consumer travel and entertainment spending is mostly back to where it was pre pandemic, small business lagging that a bit, and then large and global corporation travel still being well below its 2019 levels.

因此，唐，我們真的假設到 2022 年，消費者旅行和娛樂支出大部分會回到大流行前的水平，小型企業略有落後，然後大型和全球公司旅行仍遠低於 2019 年的水平。

The other comment I would make about 2022 is domestic travel in the U.S. and around the globe will be the fuel that gets us to that level. We would still expect cross-border travel to be a little weaker next year than it was in 2019 just given the likely lingering number of cross-border restrictions that you've seen.

關於 2022 年，我要發表的另一個評論是美國和全球的國內旅行將成為讓我們達到這一水平的燃料。考慮到您所看到的跨境限制數量可能揮之不去，我們仍然預計明年的跨境旅行會比 2019 年略微疲軟。

As of how we feel about our Q4 assumption, look, we had a clear inflection point this quarter in the U.S., and so we feel good. But Steve, you may want to add a few.

至於我們對第四季度假設的看法，看，本季度我們在美國有一個明顯的拐點，所以我們感覺很好。但是史蒂夫，你可能想補充一些。

Yes. No, I think that those -- the assumptions that Jeff just went through are exactly the assumptions we have in our calculus here. But I think when you look at this quarter and you look at the trends that we're seeing, I mean, we're seeing an increase in bookings, right?

是的。不，我認為 Jeff 剛剛經歷的那些假設正是我們在此處的微積分中所做的假設。但我認為，當您查看本季度並查看我們所看到的趨勢時，我的意思是，我們看到預訂量有所增加，對嗎？

So we're seeing our travel bookings are up 50% over the -- this quarter up 50% over Q4 '20. When you look at -- and we look at this really carefully. When you look at February versus March, in March now, we were 50% of 2019 bookings, and that was 19%. So we have 31% in February and then went to 50%. So we feel really good about that.

因此，我們看到我們的旅行預訂量比 20 年第四季度增長了 50%——本季度增長了 50%。當你看 - 我們真的很仔細地看這個。當您比較 2 月與 3 月時，現在 3 月，我們佔 2019 年預訂量的 50%，即 19%。所以我們在 2 月份有 31%，然後達到 50%。所以我們對此感覺非常好。

When we also start to really dig into the data, we start to look at sort of cohorts of spending, and we're seeing people that are younger are getting back at a much higher level. Their overall T&E spending is probably about 85% to 90% and almost 100% back to where they were in 2019 in restaurants.

當我們也開始真正深入研究數據時，我們開始研究某種支出群體，我們看到更年輕的人正在恢復到更高的水平。他們的總體 T&E 支出可能約為 85% 至 90%，幾乎 100% 回到了 2019 年在餐廳的水平。

And then when we look at older people, as they get vaccinated, we're seeing sequential growth month-on-month as we look at their growth. And so if you look at just people over 45, you're seeing an 11% increase in their overall T&E spending month-to-month. We -- that's only going to get better for us as we move along.

然後當我們觀察老年人時，當他們接種疫苗時，我們看到他們的增長是環比增長的。因此，如果你只看 45 歲以上的人，你會發現他們的整體 T&E 支出每月增加 11%。我們——隨著我們的前進，這對我們來說只會變得更好。

And the last thing that gives us a lot of great hope is redemptions, is MR redemptions. I mean, when you go back and look at sort of MR redemptions that we had, our MR point redemptions in the fourth quarter for Air was like 30%, and it's up to 54%.

最後給我們很大希望的是贖回，是 MR 贖回。我的意思是，當你回頭看看我們的 MR 積分兌換情況時，我們在第四季度為 Air 兌換的 MR 點數大約為 30%，最高可達 54%。

So we are doing some good things here, and our customers are doing some good things. And we'll continue to make sure that we're retaining these customers because they're going to spend. And as Jeff said, our co-brand cards are doing quite well as well. So all of that leads to, again, in an environment that continues to improve, us having a lot of confidence in hitting our 2020 plan in 2022 .

所以我們在這裡做了一些好事，我們的客戶也在做一些好事。我們將繼續確保留住這些客戶，因為他們會花錢。正如傑夫所說，我們的聯名卡也做得很好。因此，所有這些再次導致在一個持續改善的環境中，我們對在 2022 年實現 2020 年計劃充滿信心。

We'll go next to the line of Craig Maurer.

我們將轉到 Craig Maurer 的旁邊。

I hope everybody is well. I wanted to just ask about the guide a little bit for 2021. Versus your original scenarios that you laid out with fourth quarter earnings, how much higher was the reserve release than you had envisioned? I'm trying to understand how much pull forward of reserve release benefit might have happened in first quarter because of how strong credit quality was and the fact that lending did not accelerate.

我希望每個人都好。我只想問一下 2021 年的指南。與您為第四季度收益制定的原始方案相比，準備金釋放比您預想的高多少？我試圖了解由於信貸質量有多強以及貸款沒有加速這一事實，第一季度可能會提前多少準備金釋放收益。

Yes. So I think, Craig, the first comment I would make is, remember, we're not trying to provide guidance this year. We tried to give people a couple of low and high scenarios back in January to help people think about the year, and we updated them this quarter. What we are incredibly focused on is that 2022 aspiration, which we are really growing in confidence about.

是的。所以我想，克雷格，我要發表的第一條評論是，請記住，我們今年不會嘗試提供指導。我們試圖在 1 月份為人們提供一些低情景和高情景，以幫助人們思考這一年，並在本季度更新了這些情景。我們非常關注的是 2022 年的願望，我們對它的信心正在增強。

All that said, if you -- if I take it back to January, the then $5 low scenario assumed that the world would be so tough this year that you would not end up releasing any credit reserves. So we just released $1.05 billion of reserves. That's about a buck. That takes you from $5 to $6. So your $6 assumes, once again, the world from here is suddenly going to get really tough, and you're not going to release any more reserves. At the high end, yes, we had assumed you release some modest level of reserves, which is why the high end only went up from $7 to $7.50.

綜上所述，如果你 - 如果我把它帶回到 1 月份，當時 5 美元的低位情景假設今年世界將如此艱難，以至於你最終不會釋放任何信貸儲備。所以我們剛剛釋放了 10.5 億美元的儲備金。那大約是一塊錢。這需要你從 5 美元到 6 美元。所以你的 6 美元再次假設，從這裡開始的世界突然變得非常艱難，你不會再釋放任何儲備。在高端，是的，我們假設你釋放了一些適度的準備金，這就是為什麼高端只從 7 美元上漲到 7.50 美元。

So that's how we thought about it. I just want to close, though, by again emphasizing, we're not focused on any particular EPS outcome this year. We're incredibly focused on what we're trying to achieve for 2022.

這就是我們的想法。不過，我只想再次強調，我們今年並不關注任何特定的每股收益結果。我們非常專注於 2022 年要實現的目標。

We'll go next to the line of Mark DeVries with Barclays.

我們將在 Mark DeVries 與 Barclays 的旁邊。

I think that guidance around the corporate T&E spend makes a lot of sense. But Steve, I'd be interested in getting your color on recent conversations you're having with your large corporates on when they think they'll feel comfortable having their employees travel more freely, whether they'll recover to pre-pandemic levels, how much substitution of virtual occurs. And then finally, just given that, do you see more upside or kind of downside to that 70% of recovery level?

我認為圍繞企業 T&E 支出的指導很有意義。但是史蒂夫，我很想了解你最近與大公司進行的對話的顏色，他們認為他們什麼時候會讓員工更自由地旅行，他們是否會恢復到大流行前的水平，發生了多少虛擬替換。最後，鑑於此，您認為 70% 的恢復水平有更多的上升空間還是某種下降空間？

All right. So when you think about corporate, the first thing people have to do is get back into the offices, right, because If people are back into the offices, there's nowhere to travel to. And you're starting to see -- look, I mean, Jeff and I are in here today with 80 of our closest friends in a building that has about 5,000 people. And we've said we're not going to have people really come back until after Labor Day. You're seeing other companies sort of gradually get back into it. So I think, the step 1.

好的。所以當你想到公司時，人們要做的第一件事就是回到辦公室，對吧，因為如果人們回到辦公室，就沒有地方可去。你開始看到 - 看，我的意思是，傑夫和我今天和我們 80 位最親密的朋友在一座擁有大約 5,000 人的大樓裡。我們已經說過，要等到勞動節之後，人們才會真正回來。你會看到其他公司逐漸回歸其中。所以我認為，第 1 步。

First step is let's get people back into the office, and then companies are going to say, "Okay. How comfortable I am having visitors into the building?" And my anticipation is most companies will start opening -- start the process of reopening in the United States now, July through sort of September, and get to some capacity level. I mean -- and you guys have your own situations yourselves, where you're -- most of you are probably sitting at home today.

第一步是讓人們回到辦公室，然後公司會說，“好吧。我讓訪客進入大樓感覺如何？”我預計大多數公司將開始營業——從現在開始在美國重新開業，從 7 月到 9 月，並達到一定的產能水平。我的意思是——你們有自己的情況，你們在哪裡——你們中的大多數人今天可能都坐在家裡。

So I think what's going to happen is it's going to be slow, which is why we really haven't assumed a lot of corporate T&E coming back and a lot of travel coming back. Having said that, corporate T&E takes many forms. We do have salespeople that are on -- out and on the road and calling on accounts. And there's car rental and there's gas, and they're still staying at hotels and restaurants. And so I think for a segment of it, and I think when you look at a segment of our, let's call them, industrial corporate -- T&E corporate customers, they have people that are going to plants and visiting -- making customer calls and so forth.

所以我認為將會發生的事情會很慢，這就是為什麼我們真的沒有假設很多公司 T&E 回來，很多旅行回來。話雖如此，公司 T&E 有多種形式。我們確實有銷售人員在外出差並拜訪客戶。還有汽車租賃和汽油，他們仍然住在酒店和餐館。所以我認為對於其中的一部分，我認為當你看我們的一部分時，我們稱他們為工業企業——T&E 企業客戶，他們有人要去工廠和參觀——打電話給客戶，等等。

I think that, eventually, what will happen is investment banks and consultants are going to want to go out and meet with their clients again. There's been a lot of deals that have been done, a lot of relationships that have been built, but there's nothing like in person. I just think it will take a bit of time.

我認為，最終會發生的事情是投資銀行和顧問將想要再次走出去與他們的客戶會面。已經完成了很多交易，已經建立了很多關係，但是沒有什麼比面對面更好的了。我只是認為這需要一些時間。

And look, there's also -- there's that substitution. It's a substitution of WebEx and Zoom and what have you, which is why we've been talking 2023 before it gets back to 2019 levels. And I think with that assumption, we feel good about hitting that 2020 aspiration in 2022.

看，還有 - 有那個替代品。它是 WebEx 和 Zoom 的替代品，你有什麼，這就是為什麼我們一直在談論 2023 年，然後才回到 2019 年的水平。我認為，有了這個假設，我們對在 2022 年實現 2020 年的願望感到很高興。

So when you think about what goes into our assumption for 2022, you've got a slower return of international, you've got a much lower return of corporate, and yet we're saying we'll be at 2020 levels.

因此，當你考慮我們對 2022 年的假設時，你會發現國際回報較慢，企業回報要低得多，但我們說我們將達到 2020 年的水平。

And so is there upside from a consumer perspective on travel? I think that all depends on the rollout of the vaccine, governments opening up their borders and things like that. I think from a domestic travel perspective, pent-up -- there's pent-up demand. In talking to Ed Bastian and talking to Chris Nassetta, they're seeing a lot of bookings out front. I just went through some of our travel data.

那麼，從消費者的角度來看，旅行有好處嗎？我認為這一切都取決於疫苗的推出、政府開放邊界等。我認為從國內旅遊的角度來看，被壓抑的需求是被壓抑的。在與 Ed Bastian 和 Chris Nassetta 交談時，他們看到了很多預訂。我剛剛瀏覽了一些我們的旅行數據。

So as we go through this, I think what's going to be the key thing to watch for is how much does international travel come back from a consumer, and we're assuming that sort of now in the second half of 2022, okay, not in -- not really this year.

因此，當我們討論這個問題時，我認為需要關注的關鍵是國際旅行從消費者那裡回來了多少，我們假設現在是 2022 年下半年，好吧，不是在——不是今年。

And I think the other thing you're seeing, Mark, is you're seeing a divergence. I mean, you see what's going on in India right now. There's a lot of countries that are having different results and different situations as it relates to the vaccine. But one thing is inarguable. The more vaccine rollout, the more people feel confident. The more people feel confident, the more they'll get out and spend.

馬克，我認為你看到的另一件事是你看到了分歧。我的意思是，你看到印度現在正在發生什麼。有很多國家在疫苗方面有不同的結果和不同的情況。但有一件事是無可爭辯的。疫苗推出的次數越多，人們就越有信心。越多的人感到自信，他們就會越多地出去消費。

And that's why I think when you look at sort of the -- towards the end of the second quarter into third quarter in the summer, you're going to see people hitting the road, you're going to see people hitting the skies, especially in the U.S.

這就是為什麼我認為當你看一些——在夏天的第二季度末到第三季度，你會看到人們上路，你會看到人們飛向天空，特別是在美國

We'll go next to the line of Betsy Graseck with Morgan Stanley.

我們將與 Morgan Stanley 一起去 Betsy Graseck 旁邊。

So my question is on the 2.1 million accounts acquired in the quarter. Maybe you could give us some color on the type of customer, age bracket, income geography, that kind of thing and give us a sense of what's resonating.

所以我的問題是關於本季度獲得的 210 萬個帳戶。也許你可以給我們一些關於客戶類型、年齡段、收入地域等的顏色，讓我們了解什麼是共鳴。

Is it more the cash back, the T&E, the specific enhancements that you're making on some of the programs, spend more, get more kind of points, bonus points and a little bit on how you're thinking about this group of new accounts that you're acquiring, and what that means for future spend trajectory and growth rates versus maybe what you were acquiring pre-pandemic? If there's any compare and contrast there you can share, that would be great.

是更多的現金返還，T&E，你在一些項目上所做的具體改進，花更多的錢，得到更多的積分，獎勵積分，以及你對這組新人的看法您正在收購的賬戶，與您在大流行前收購的賬戶相比，這對未來的支出軌跡和增長率意味著什麼？如果有任何比較和對比可以分享，那就太好了。

Okay. Well, let me give you a couple. It's probably a half hour meeting there, but let me go through. So look, 2.1 million new cards, normally 2019, you saw us average about 2.5 million new cards.

好的。好吧，讓我給你幾個。在那裡開會可能需要半個小時，但讓我講完。所以看，210 萬張新卡，通常是 2019 年，你看到我們平均約有 250 萬張新卡。

When you look at the consumer cards, 60% of the cards we acquired were millennial or Gen Z. We saw -- in the pandemic, you saw more cash-back cards being acquired. We -- there was a 35% jump in premium cards that we saw in this particular quarter, and acquisition of Platinum and Gold cards was well above pre-pandemic levels. So we feel good about that.

當你看消費卡時，我們獲得的卡中有 60% 是千禧一代或 Z 世代。我們看到——在大流行中，你看到更多的現金返還卡被收購。我們——我們在這個特定季度看到的高級卡數量增長了 35%，白金卡和金卡的購買量遠高於大流行前的水平。所以我們對此感覺很好。

And just to give you some sort of contrast on that, when you look at our fee-based products, it's still a little bit lower. I mean, we're acquiring about 60%. It was about 70% in 2019, but sequential increases have helped.

只是為了給您一些對比，當您查看我們的收費產品時，它仍然要低一些。我的意思是，我們收購了大約 60%。 2019 年約為 70%，但連續增長有所幫助。

We're seeing co-brand cards come back. I mean, we talked about 90% more Delta cards acquired in this quarter than in the previous quarter, and we're seeing a higher-level customer. I mentioned that in my remarks. The FICO is a lot higher, and we're seeing good spending.

我們看到聯名卡又回來了。我的意思是，我們談到本季度獲得的 Delta 卡比上一季度多 90%，而且我們看到了更高級別的客戶。我在發言中提到了這一點。 FICO 高得多，我們看到了良好的支出。

So we feel good about both our small business and consumer. We don't really talk about geographic distribution and things like that. But our intent is not only to acquire cards, but we also -- when we talk about it, we acquire billed business. And we're on track to do from a billed business acquired perspective where we were in 2019. So we feel good about that.

因此，我們對我們的小企業和消費者都感覺良好。我們並沒有真正談論地理分佈之類的事情。但我們的意圖不僅是獲得卡，而且我們還——當我們談論它時，我們獲得了收費業務。從我們在 2019 年獲得的計費業務的角度來看，我們有望做到這一點。所以我們對此感覺很好。

The only thing I'd add, just to make it clear, Betsy, is that the sequential growth in the travel co-brands has been tremendous. They're still below where they were pre-pandemic because you still don't have anywhere near as many people staying at hotels or sitting on airplanes.

Betsy，我唯一要補充的是，旅遊聯合品牌的連續增長是巨大的。它們仍然低於大流行前的水平，因為仍然沒有那麼多的人住在酒店或坐在飛機上。

And so that's what leaves us overall a little bit below the level of pre-pandemic new card acquisitions, but we're quite confident that will come back. And once you look beyond that sector, we think we're at great levels today.

因此，這使我們總體上略低於大流行前的新卡收購水平，但我們非常有信心這種情況會回來。一旦你超越那個領域，我們認為我們今天處於很好的水平。

We'll go next to the line of Mihir Bhatia of Bank of America.

我們將走到美國銀行的 Mihir Bhatia 旁邊。

I wanted to ask about -- a big -- a little bit more on the 70% by year-end T&E assumption. Is there -- it sounds like there's a mix shift between volumes there, too, between domestic and international, where it did more towards domestic, which I think we all understand.

我想問——一個大的——關於年底 T&E 假設的 70%。那裡 - 聽起來國內和國際之間的銷量之間也存在混合變化，它對國內的影響更大，我想我們都明白這一點。

But maybe is there a difference in revenue or profitability between that travel in terms of what you make? So I guess, what I'm trying to ask is as T&E comes back, is the contribution to revenue maybe going to lag a little bit on the -- compared to the contribution to volume just from that mix shift? And then any update on April billing trends?

但是，就您的收入而言，那次旅行之間的收入或盈利能力可能存在差異嗎？所以我想，我想問的是，隨著 T&E 的回歸，與混合轉變對銷量的貢獻相比，對收入的貢獻是否會有所滯後？然後是關於 4 月份賬單趨勢的任何更新嗎？

Yes. No. So when we report the volume, it's the volume, and there's no difference. Obviously, If people are booking first class international tickets to Hong Kong, they cost a lot more than first class tickets Indianapolis. But the reality is we're giving you volume numbers. So it just means you need a lot more of those tickets to Indianapolis than you do to Hong Kong.

是的。沒有。所以當我們報告體積時，它就是體積，沒有區別。顯然，如果人們預訂到香港的頭等艙國際機票，他們的費用要比印第安納波利斯的頭等艙機票貴很多。但現實是我們給你的是數量。所以這只是意味著你需要比去香港多得多的去印第安納波利斯的票。

So no, there isn't. There isn't a difference for us. We're not giving you sort of -- when we talk about volumes, we're not giving you a number of trips booked here. What we're doing is we're giving you actual volume.

所以不，沒有。對我們來說沒有區別。我們不會給你 - 當我們談論數量時，我們不會給你在這裡預訂的旅行數量。我們正在做的是給你實際的音量。

So we may have actually more trips. In fact, when we look at -- we look at this, you'll -- we look at receipt of charges and transactions basically, so we may have more transactions in Air, and you may have lower dollar, but that doesn't mean anything to our margins.

所以我們實際上可能會有更多的旅行。事實上，當我們看——我們看這個，你會——我們基本上看收費和交易的收據，所以我們可能有更多的航空交易，你可能有更低的美元，但這並沒有對我們的利潤意味著什麼。

The only thing I'd add, Mihir, is when you look at our other revenue and other fee and commission lines, there is some dollars in there that do come from cross-border travel. And as we think about the 2022 aspiration, we don't actually expect that to be fully back to 2019 levels in 2022. We don't need it to be to hit our 2022 aspirations.

Mihir，我唯一要補充的是，當您查看我們的其他收入以及其他費用和佣金時，其中確實有一些美元來自跨境旅行。當我們考慮 2022 年的願望時，我們實際上並不希望它在 2022 年完全回到 2019 年的水平。我們不需要它來實現我們的 2022 年願望。

I'd actually put that in the category of things Steve talked about earlier that even beyond '22, there's still probably a couple of remaining tailwinds as the last of cross-border travel and corporate travel begin to come back to 2019 levels post-2022.

實際上，我會把它歸入史蒂夫早些時候談到的事情類別中，即使在 22 年以後，隨著最後的跨境旅行和公司旅行開始回到 2022 年後的 2019 年水平，可能仍然存在一些順風.

We'll go next to the line of Meng Jiao with Deutsche Bank.

我們和德意志銀行一起去孟郊那條線旁邊。

I wanted to touch on the recent expansion of Pay It Plan it to all U.S. Consumer Cards. Have you seen any sort of usage acceleration since you expanded that? And then can you actually frame for us how big the opportunity set can be and it could apply to that 2022 aspiration that you mentioned?

我想談談最近將 Pay It Plan it 擴展到所有美國消費卡的情況。自從你擴展它之後，你有沒有看到任何形式的使用加速？然後你能為我們確定機會集有多大，它可以適用於你提到的 2022 年願景嗎？

Yes. No. So it's really too early to sort of tell on just how much we've got it because we really just did it, but it's not really in the -- it's not in our calculus to help us make our 2022 number. It's totally upside for us.

是的。不，所以現在判斷我們得到了多少還為時過早，因為我們真的做到了，但它並不是真的——它不在我們的計算中來幫助我們計算 2022 年的數字。這對我們來說完全有利。

But again, just to put it in perspective, you're talking about 6 million plans from inception, you're talking about $5 billion of overall AR. And it's a convenience feature that we have. It's -- yes, I'd like to say it was our answer to buy now pay later, except we had it before a lot of the buy now pay later. We just had it on particular cards, and now we've put it on all the card.

但是，再一次，從一個角度來看，你談論的是從一開始就有 600 萬個計劃，你談論的是 50 億美元的整體 AR。這是我們擁有的便利功能。這是 - 是的，我想說這是我們的答案，先買後付款，除了我們在很多先買後付款之前就已經有了它。我們只是把它放在特定的卡片上，現在我們把它放在所有卡片上。

So it really is all about meeting overall Card Members cash flow needs, and they'll do this versus potentially revolve on charge or just a normal lending transaction. It gives them more certainty. So it's in the overall numbers that we have and the overall spending that we have, but I wouldn't say, in any way, shape or form, it's a big driver of 2022.

所以這真的是為了滿足持卡人的整體現金流需求，他們會這樣做而不是可能循環收費或只是正常的貸款交易。這給了他們更多的確定性。所以這是我們擁有的總體數字和我們擁有的總體支出，但我不會說，以任何方式，形狀或形式，它是 2022 年的一個重要推動力。

We'll go next to the line of Bill Carcache with Wolfe Research.

我們將與 Wolfe Research 一起探討 Bill Carcache 的產品線。

So you guys have done a very effective job of adjusting your pre-pandemic value propositions, but can you offer any thoughts on the work you've done more recently around potential post-pandemic changes in consumer preferences that may be longer lasting and the risk that could lead to more permanent changes?

所以你們在調整大流行前的價值主張方面做得非常有效，但是您能否就最近圍繞大流行後消費者偏好的潛在變化所做的工作提出任何想法，這些變化可能會持續更長時間，並且風險這會導致更永久的改變？

For example, how concerned are you guys about the risk that the value proposition associated with the airline lounges may not be as great post-COVID? And how confident are you that you'll be able to identify sustainable cost-effective alternatives to maintain the overall value proposition across your different products to the extent that we can't just go back to the old -- sort of the older pre-pandemic offerings that you guys had?

例如，你們有多擔心與航空公司休息室相關的價值主張在 COVID 後可能沒有那麼大的風險？您對能夠確定可持續的具有成本效益的替代方案以保持不同產品的整體價值主張到我們不能只是回到舊的程度的程度有多大信心 - 有點舊的pre-你們有大流行產品嗎？

Yes. So a couple of points. So look, our strategy for the last 3 years has been to refresh our products on an ongoing basis, ongoing basis anywhere from sort of 3 to 4 years. And so we'll talk more as we refresh those products, and we'll give you a little bit more color on that.

是的。所以有幾點。所以看，我們過去 3 年的策略是持續更新我們的產品，持續時間從 3 到 4 年不等。因此，當我們更新這些產品時，我們會談得更多，我們會給你更多的顏色。

I take the opposite view on sort of the travel value propositions. I think they're actually going to be even stronger at this point. I think that people are going to want to have the safety and security of our lounges. We're opening up more lounges. We're not backing away from these lounges. In fact, we've opened up numerous lounges during the pandemic, and they've turned into a little bit more of an oasis for people where, they know, with our brand, our security and our reputation, we're going to take as good care of people in our lounges as possible.

我對某種旅遊價值主張持相反的觀點。我認為他們實際上會在這一點上變得更加強大。我認為人們會想要我們休息室的安全保障。我們正在開設更多休息室。我們不會放棄這些休息室。事實上，我們在大流行期間開設了許多休息室，它們已經變成了人們的綠洲，他們知道，憑藉我們的品牌、我們的安全和我們的聲譽，我們將採取盡可能照顧好我們休息室裡的人。

And I think the other thing that there's a lot of questions we got at this time last year was, "Geez. What's the future of your travel co-brand cards?" And when we look at the month of March, and we look at sort of Delta and we look at Hilton as just 2 examples, they're at 2019 spending levels overall and because people have been accumulating points and people want status. And as I've said numerous times on these calls, status is probably even going to be more important going forward.

我認為去年這個時候我們收到的很多問題是，“天哪。你們的旅行聯名卡的未來是什麼？”當我們看 3 月份時，我們看一下 Delta 和希爾頓這兩個例子，它們總體上處於 2019 年的支出水平，因為人們一直在積累積分，人們想要地位。正如我在這些電話會議上多次說過的那樣，未來地位甚至可能變得更加重要。

So what we will continue to do is we're not going to walk away from our travel value propositions. If anything, I've been more encouraged that we did the right things, and we'll continue to add though. I mean, I think if you look at our history over the last 3 years or so, 3.5 years, we've kept our core value proposition and continued to add.

因此，我們將繼續做的是，我們不會放棄我們的旅遊價值主張。如果有的話，我更受鼓舞的是我們做了正確的事情，但我們會繼續增加。我的意思是，我想如果你看看我們過去 3 年左右的歷史，3.5 年，我們一直保持我們的核心價值主張並繼續增加。

And during the pandemic, I talked about the results we had with wireless and the results we had with streaming. We got customers who were not using our card for those things. By putting some value in, we're now 4 months after the value and they're still spending.

在大流行期間，我談到了我們在無線和流媒體方面取得的成果。我們有一些客戶沒有使用我們的卡來做這些事情。通過投入一些價值，我們現在已經過了價值 4 個月，而他們仍在消費。

And we're doing the same thing. Right now, we've got a PayPal Credit for our Platinum cardholders, and we're picking up more Card Members that didn't use PayPal. And as I've talked about PayPal and I've talked about some of the other fintech Square and Stripe and so forth, they've actually not only helped us get more coverage, but have helped us in ways to deliver more value to our Card Members.

我們正在做同樣的事情。現在，我們為白金卡持卡人提供了 PayPal Credit，並且我們正在招募更多未使用 PayPal 的持卡人。當我談到 PayPal 和其他一些金融科技 Square 和 Stripe 等等時，它們實際上不僅幫助我們獲得了更多的覆蓋面，而且幫助我們以多種方式為我們的客戶提供更多價值卡會員。

So we feel good about our card -- our value propositions. We feel good about the travel value propositions that are in our products, but we will continue to expand and evolve our value propositions as we have over time. We're not walking away from that strategy.

所以我們對我們的卡片感覺良好——我們的價值主張。我們對產品中的旅遊價值主張感到滿意，但我們將隨著時間的推移繼續擴展和發展我們的價值主張。我們不會放棄該戰略。

We'll go next to Ryan Nash with Goldman Sachs.

我們將與高盛一起去 Ryan Nash 旁邊。

So Steve, maybe as a follow-up on that. So you injected significant value prop enhancements into the business, like streaming and wireless, as you just referenced, and I believe some of those will evolve over the next few quarters. So can you maybe just talk about how you envision repurposing those marketing dollars?

所以史蒂夫，也許作為後續行動。因此，正如您剛才提到的，您為業務注入了重要的價值支持增強功能，例如流媒體和無線，我相信其中一些將在未來幾個季度內發展。那麼，您能否談談您設想如何重新利用這些營銷資金？

I think, Jeff, you talked about spending a little over $4.5 billion this year. Could we see that come down beyond this year? Or do you expect to see these enhancements shifted towards customer acquisition and maybe we could see customer acquisitions above that, those 2.5 million per quarter that you talked about in 2019?

我想，傑夫，你談到今年的支出略高於 45 億美元。我們能看到今年以後會下降嗎？或者您是否希望看到這些增強功能轉向客戶獲取，也許我們可以看到客戶獲取高於此，即您在 2019 年談到的每季度 250 萬？

Yes. So a couple of points. We spent, I think, it was like $1 billion this quarter. Some of that was in value injection, not the wireless and streaming. Those have ended. This is different types of value injection, but the majority of that was customer acquisition and customer engagement.

是的。所以有幾點。我認為，本季度我們花費了 10 億美元。其中一些是價值注入，而不是無線和流媒體。那些已經結束了。這是不同類型的價值注入，但其中大部分是客戶獲取和客戶參與。

When we look at the rest of the year, I think we said we're going to spend $4.5 billion, but we'll spend up to the attractive opportunities that are there. If there are not attractive opportunities, we will not spend it. If there are attractive opportunities, we will spend more if they're there mainly because we're focused on building that momentum.

當我們回顧今年剩下的時間時，我想我們說過我們將花費 45 億美元，但我們會根據現有的有吸引力的機會花錢。如果沒有誘人的機會，我們就不會花錢。如果有有吸引力的機會，我們會花更多的錢，主要是因為我們專注於建立這種勢頭。

Having said that, given that you have sort of probably a 6-month value injection window and you've got customer acquisition and customer retention, more than likely, you will see that overall dollar bucket come down next year as we go into 2022 when you're not doing that value injection.

話雖如此，鑑於你可能有一個 6 個月的價值注入窗口，並且你已經獲得了客戶並保留了客戶，你很可能會看到明年隨著我們進入 2022 年，整體美元桶會下降你不是在做那種價值注入。

The only thing I'd add, Ryan, is we've talked about the fact that as you go through this year, to Steve's point, you need to see the value injection spending come down. And we were pleased this quarter because, actually, it was down sequentially, and we still continue to see tremendous customer attrition and retention rates, probably because the travel-oriented value parts of our value propositions are becoming more valuable to people again.

瑞安，我唯一要補充的是，我們已經討論過這樣一個事實，即在今年，按照史蒂夫的觀點，你需要看到價值注入支出下降。本季度我們很高興，因為實際上它連續下降，我們仍然繼續看到巨大的客戶流失率和保留率，這可能是因為我們價值主張中以旅遊為導向的價值部分再次變得對人們更有價值。

We'll go next to the line of Jamie Friedman with Susquehanna Research.

我們將在 Susquehanna Research 的 Jamie Friedman 旁邊。

This is a very thoughtful IR deck, so thank you for that and for the updated commentary. I just wanted to ask, in Slides 7, 8 and 9, you demonstrate the outperformance of SME. You don't have to go to the slides and just anchoring it. But in terms of the outperformance of SME, Steve and Jeff, could you remind us what it is about that relative to large and corporate that is different that makes it more sustainable?

這是一個非常周到的 IR 平台，因此感謝您提供最新的評論。我只想問，在幻燈片 7、8 和 9 中，您展示了 SME 的出色表現。您不必轉到幻燈片並固定它。但是就 SME、Steve 和 Jeff 的出色表現而言，您能否提醒我們，相對於大型企業而言，是什麼使其更具可持續性？

Yes. So you probably heard us shuffling the pages to get to 7, 8 and 9. But yes, so there's a huge difference. I mean -- so our Corporate Card is predominantly, it's like 60% travel and entertainment, whereas our SME card is like 80% goods and services. They use the card to run their business.

是的。所以您可能聽到我們將頁面改組到第 7、8 和 9。但是，是的，所以有很大的不同。我的意思是——所以我們的公司卡主要是 60% 的旅遊和娛樂，而我們的 SME 卡是 80% 的商品和服務。他們使用該卡來經營他們的業務。

And as we've talked about travel coming back, it comes back in layers. It comes back with consumer, then it's SME and then it's large and corporate. So it is a very different business and -- which is why we went and acquired Kabbage to have a digital front for these SMEs where they can not only get their card spending done, but also get working capital loans, have a transaction banking account, have merchant financing loan, have short-term loans and things like that because small businesses -- small and midsized businesses use this card to really help to run their businesses, which is a fundamental difference between how corporations use the card, which is to support T&E. And obviously, there's B2B opportunities with large corporates, but -- that's why small business has come back.

正如我們所說的旅行回歸，它是分層回歸的。它與消費者一起回歸，然後是中小企業，然後是大型企業。所以這是一個非常不同的業務——這就是為什麼我們去收購 Kabbage 為這些中小企業提供數字前沿，在那裡他們不僅可以完成他們的卡消費，還可以獲得流動資金貸款，擁有一個交易銀行賬戶，有商業融資貸款，有短期貸款和類似的東西，因為小企業——中小型企業使用這張卡來真正幫助他們經營業務，這是企業使用卡的根本區別，即支持差旅費。顯然，大型企業存在 B2B 機會，但這就是小型企業回歸的原因。

What our small businesses have done, I think, even better than what you might have thought is, is the dispersion that we have across the small business arenas, and I've said this many times. When people think about small businesses, they tend to think about the small retail shop, what they tend to think about is small restaurant.

我認為，我們的小企業所做的，甚至比你想像的還要好，是我們在小企業領域的分散，我已經說過很多次了。當人們想到小企業時，他們往往會想到小型零售店，他們往往會想到小餐館。

The reality is a lot of them didn't do so well during this time. We don't have a tremendous amount of our small business base there. It is a very diverse base. And when you think about professional services, you think about cooling and plumbing and electric and all those things, our base is very wide, and that has helped us because some small business segments during this time have just been through the roof. Others have been hit really hard, and others have businesses -- have maintained as they were before the pandemic.

事實上，他們中的很多人在這段時間裡並沒有做得很好。我們在那裡沒有大量的小型企業基地。這是一個非常多樣化的基地。當你想到專業服務時，你會想到冷卻、管道和電力以及所有這些東西，我們的基礎非常廣泛，這對我們有幫助，因為這段時間的一些小業務部門剛剛取得了成功。其他人受到的打擊非常嚴重，而其他人則有生意——一直保持著大流行之前的狀態。

We'll go now to the line of Bob Napoli with William Blair.

我們現在將轉到 Bob Napoli 和 William Blair 的台詞。

A question on China, I guess, and in debit as -- and broader thoughts on debit. So what do we -- what should we see out of China? You've changed your reporting somewhat because you expect to see some significant numbers, I guess, out of China.

我想，一個關於中國的問題，以及關於借方的更廣泛的想法。那麼我們——我們應該從中國看到什麼？你已經稍微改變了你的報告，因為你希望看到一些重要的數字，我猜，來自中國。

But you also talked about building a debit capability broader than China. And I just wondered what your long-term thoughts were on that.

但你也談到了建立比中國更廣泛的借記能力。我只是想知道您對此有何長期想法。

Yes. So I think we changed that to provide, I think, the appropriate level of transparency for you guys because, obviously, as we've said this all along, GNS volumes are not worth the same to us as GNS as proprietary volumes, and China volumes are part of that mix.

是的。所以我認為我們改變了這一點，我認為，為你們提供適當的透明度，因為很明顯，正如我們一直所說的那樣，GNS 卷對我們來說與專有捲的 GNS 不一樣，而中國卷是該組合的一部分。

And so that's why we changed it to process volumes because, yes, you're right, over time, we do expect that volume to be very significant. And we wanted to make sure we were providing the right level of insight, so that you guys could make the right assumptions.

這就是我們將其更改為處理量的原因，因為，是的，你是對的，隨著時間的推移，我們確實希望該量非常重要。我們想確保我們提供了正確水平的洞察力，這樣你們就可以做出正確的假設。

And there will be -- in China, it will be charge credit, and it will be debit cards. And so as we build that capability, we will evaluate where else. If you build that capability for your network, it gives you the capability to do it in other markets. And so we'll evaluate over time where that makes sense for us to roll that out.

在中國，將會有信用卡和借記卡。因此，當我們建立這種能力時，我們將評估其他地方。如果您為自己的網絡構建了該功能，那麼您將有能力在其他市場實現這一目標。因此，我們將隨著時間的推移評估對我們來說有意義的地方。

So nothing really to announce here, but I think it's important that you understand the capabilities that we're building as well, and we're building these capabilities from a global perspective so that we have it.

所以這裡沒有什麼要宣布的，但我認為重要的是你也要了解我們正在構建的能力，我們正在從全球角度構建這些能力，以便我們擁有它。

But to also point out, we do have GNS partners in local markets today that have debit products -- have American Express debit products. They just tend to get used more locally within country as opposed to around the world.

但還要指出的是，我們今天在當地市場確實有 GNS 合作夥伴，他們有借記產品——有美國運通借記產品。與世界各地相比，它們只是傾向於在國內更多地使用。

And it's important, at some point, we will have a lot of traveling Chinese card members, and it's important that they're able to use all the products that we -- that our partners issue to them all around the world, and debit being one of them.

重要的是，在某些時候，我們將有很多旅行的中國信用卡會員，重要的是他們能夠使用我們——我們的合作夥伴在世界各地向他們發行的所有產品，並藉記卡其中之一。

We'll go next to the line of Rick Shane with JPMorgan.

我們將在 JPMorgan 的 Rick Shane 旁邊。

I know you guys have been on here a while. One of the consequences of the Card Act was that it shifted the competitive landscape from offering lower rates to higher rewards. And we think, at the peak of the GFC recovery, that was particularly challenging for AXP because it had the impact of basically causing industry offers to converge to your core value propositions.

我知道你們在這裡已經有一段時間了。 《卡片法》的後果之一是它將競爭格局從提供較低的費率轉變為提供更高的獎勵。我們認為，在全球金融危機復甦的高峰期，這對 AXP 來說尤其具有挑戰性，因為它的影響基本上導致行業報價趨同於您的核心價值主張。

One of the responses we saw from you is that you moved on to your front foot in terms of targeting millennials for card acquisition. I'm curious, as we sort of enter this new period of expansion and all of your competitors are talking about growth, what are the lessons you learned last cycle? And either tactically or strategically, how will you respond?

我們從您那裡看到的回應之一是，您在針對千禧一代獲取卡片方面邁出了第一步。我很好奇，當我們進入這個新的擴張時期並且您的所有競爭對手都在談論增長時，您在上一個週期中吸取的教訓是什麼？無論是戰術上還是戰略上，您將如何應對？

Well, I have a different version of the Card Act than you do. I think our competitors got into this more after the financial crisis when they really looked at this and said, "This was a very attractive business."

好吧，我有一個與你不同版本的卡片法。我認為我們的競爭對手在金融危機之後更多地涉足這一領域，當時他們真正審視了這一點並說：“這是一項非常有吸引力的業務。”

The reality is the Card Act had a lot less impact on us because, remember, 80% of our revenues are not from interest. And the fact that interest rates, especially on prior balances, were now controlled, really, had less impact on us than it did at our competitors. Our competitors wound up just growing their overall business. And one of the first things they did is hire a lot of people from American Express to do that.

事實上，卡片法對我們的影響要小得多，因為請記住，我們 80% 的收入不是來自利息。事實上，利率，尤其是之前的餘額，現在受到控制，實際上，對我們的影響小於對我們競爭對手的影響。我們的競爭對手最終只是發展了他們的整體業務。他們做的第一件事就是從美國運通公司聘請了很多人來做這件事。

But, look, I think that the lessons that we've learned over time -- and look, I've always said this, we welcome competition. The lessons that we learned over time is you need to continue to focus in on what your customer needs are and how your customer is changing and evolving. And this is why, when I took over, one of the first things I said is we're going to go to a strategy of refreshing our products on a real ongoing basis. You cannot have your Green Card sit out there for 30 years and think it's still as relevant 30 years ago as it is today.

但是，看，我認為我們隨著時間的推移吸取的教訓——看，我一直這麼說，我們歡迎競爭。隨著時間的推移，我們吸取的教訓是，您需要繼續關注客戶的需求以及客戶的變化和發展方式。這就是為什麼當我接手時，我說的第一件事就是我們將採取一項戰略，在真正持續的基礎上更新我們的產品。你不能讓你的綠卡放在那裡 30 年，並認為它在 30 年前仍然和今天一樣重要。

Millennials was really not as much a Card Act. Millennials was us opening our eyes to the fact that our value proposition had a much broader appeal, and I think that we really started to communicate that. And look -- and I've said this publicly before, I think your company there did a great job of really highlighting premium cards. I'm talking about JPMorgan, and Gordon and his team did a fantastic job of highlighting premium cards to millennials, and our value proposition played remarkably well there. And as I just said, 60% of our cards that we just acquired are millennials.

千禧一代真的不像卡片法。千禧一代讓我們睜開眼睛，認識到我們的價值主張具有更廣泛的吸引力，我認為我們真的開始傳達這一點。看——我之前公開說過，我認為你們公司在真正突出高端卡方面做得很好。我說的是摩根大通，戈登和他的團隊在向千禧一代強調優質卡方面做得非常出色，我們的價值主張在那裡發揮得非常好。正如我剛才所說，我們剛剛獲得的卡片中有 60% 是千禧一代。

I think we had to expand our aperture, and we did that. We expanded that aperture, and we realized that the value proposition that we had could have a wider audience and could have a wider target, and we've done that, and we will continue to do that. You will continue to see that from a multicultural perspective. You will continue to see that from millennials. You'll continue to see that with women as well.

我認為我們必須擴大光圈，我們做到了。我們擴大了這個範圍，我們意識到我們的價值主張可以有更廣泛的受眾和更廣泛的目標，我們已經做到了，我們將繼續這樣做。您將繼續從多元文化的角度看待這一點。你會繼續從千禧一代那裡看到這一點。你也會繼續在女性身上看到這一點。

So I think what we learned is that -- since then is that there is a broader market for our products than we initially thought, number one. Number two, you always have to keep innovating, and you have to innovate on a regular cycle basis. You can't stand on your laurels. And I would say that we learned more from some of our trials and tribulations with Costco than we did from the Card Act.

所以我認為我們學到的是 - 從那時起我們的產品市場比我們最初想像的更廣闊，第一。第二，你必須不斷創新，而且你必須定期創新。你不能固步自封。我要說的是，我們從 Costco 的一些考驗和磨難中學到的東西比我們從卡片法中學到的要多。

Our final question will come from Sanjay Sakhrani with KBW.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 KBW 的 Sanjay Sakhrani。

Most of my questions have been asked, but just a quick one on credit. Jeff, I think you mentioned you're still weighting towards the negative -- or higher weighting towards the negative scenario in your reserve calculation. I'm just curious sort of how realistic that is given sort of where we are, and we're looking at delinquency rates here and the building momentum. Maybe you could just talk about that.

我的大部分問題都已被問到，但只是一個快速的問題。傑夫，我想你提到過你在準備金計算中仍然偏重於負面——或者更高的權重。我只是想知道我們所處的位置有多現實，我們正在研究這裡的拖欠率和建設勢頭。也許你可以談談這個。

And then just one quick one on the expenses. You mentioned the venture gains helping expenses this quarter. I mean, should we just view it as a onetime gain? Or how should we think about that? Was that spent?

然後只是關於費用的一個快速的。你提到了本季度的風險收益幫助支出。我的意思是，我們是否應該將其視為一次性收益？或者我們應該如何考慮？那是花了嗎？

So on credit, Sanjay, you're correct. For the purposes of our accounting credit reserve, we did significantly weighed a downside scenario, and I think that's in keeping with a little bit of a regulatory view where you have the Federal Reserve saying to all banks, "We're still a little. Why don't we see a little bit more time pass before we free everyone to go back to returning to your appropriate capital levels?"

所以在信用方面，Sanjay，你是對的。就我們的會計信用儲備而言，我們確實對下行情景進行了重大權衡，我認為這在一定程度上符合監管觀點，即美聯儲對所有銀行說，“我們還有一點。為什麼在我們讓每個人都自由回到適當的資本水平之前，我們不能看到更多的時間過去？”

So we thought it was appropriate to be that conservative. But to be clear, the reserve that we have on the books implies that some -- that steady recovery that we're in the midst of now just stops, and things get worse. So if it doesn't, then you would expect to see more reserves.

所以我們認為保持保守是合適的。但要明確的是，我們在賬面上的儲備意味著一些 - 我們現在正處於穩定的複蘇只是停止，事情變得更糟。所以如果沒有，那麼你會期望看到更多的儲備。

The only other comment I'd make is it's April 23. You're already at the point of the year where you really can't, for the most part, see write-offs go up significantly this year. Even if that stuff happens, the actual write-offs would go into next year.

我要發表的唯一其他評論是現在是 4 月 23 日。你已經到了一年中你真的不能，在大多數情況下，看到今年註銷大幅上升。即使發生這種情況，實際的註銷也會進入明年。

On OpEx, yes, we did have a $377 million gain on the really great portfolio we have of fintech investments. We have about 50 different companies we have holdings in. We do partnerships with those companies. It's really all about those partnerships. But market has been pretty frothy lately, so there was a big gain on a couple of those companies this quarter.

在 OpEx 方面，是的，我們確實從我們擁有的金融科技投資組合中獲得了 3.77 億美元的收益。我們持有大約 50 家不同的公司。我們與這些公司建立了合作夥伴關係。這真的是關於這些夥伴關係。但最近市場相當泡沫，因此本季度其中幾家公司獲得了巨大收益。

There's also some offsets when the equity markets are frothy. Our deferred comp balances are a bit of an offset or a hedge almost to the equity investments. I would really think of it, Sanjay, mostly as a onetime sort of thing.

當股市出現泡沫時，也有一些抵消。我們的遞延補償餘額幾乎是對股權投資的抵消或對沖。 Sanjay，我真的會認為它主要是一次性的事情。

This year, the reality is we're not focused on any particular EPS outcome. What we're focused on is, to the extent we have good investment opportunities, you will see us use the financial strength that we have right now to pursue those opportunities because we are laser-focused and increasingly confident of the aspiration we have for 2022.

今年，現實情況是我們並不關注任何特定的 EPS 結果。我們關注的是，在我們擁有良好投資機會的範圍內，您會看到我們利用我們現在擁有的財務實力來追求這些機會，因為我們專注於激光，並且對我們對 2022 年的抱負越來越有信心.

With that, we will bring the call to an end. Thank you again for joining today's call and for your continued interest in American Express. The IR team will be available for any follow-up questions.

至此，我們將結束通話。再次感謝您參加今天的電話會議以及您對美國運通的持續關注。 IR 團隊將隨時回答任何後續問題。

Allan, back to you.

艾倫，回到你身邊。

Ladies and gentlemen, the webcast replay will be available on our Investor Relations website at ir.americanexpress.com shortly after the call. You can also access the digital replay of the call at (866) 207-1041 or (402) 970-0847, access code 3411494 after 12:00 p.m. Eastern time today, April 23 through midnight, April 30.

女士們，先生們，網絡直播重播將在電話會議後不久在我們的投資者關係網站 ir.americanexpress.com 上提供。您還可以在中午 12:00 後撥打 (866) 207-1041 或 (402) 970-0847，訪問代碼 3411494，觀看電話會議的數字重播。今天東部時間，4 月 23 日到 4 月 30 日午夜。

That will conclude our conference call for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

這將結束我們今天的電話會議。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。

6/7/2021

6/7/2021

AXP Internal

AXP 內部

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