(AXL) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

My name is Jamie, and I will be your conference facilitator today.

我叫傑米，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing fourth quarter 2023 earnings conference call.

此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 American Axle & Manufacturing 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's event is being recorded.

（操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的事件正在被記錄。

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr. David Lim, Head of Investor Relations.

現在，我想請投資者關係主管 David Lim 先生發言。

Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

請繼續，林先生。

Thank you, Jamie, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，傑米，大家早安。

I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's fourth-quarter earnings call.

我謹歡迎每一位參加 AAM 第四季財報電話會議的人。

Earlier this morning, we released our fourth quarter of 2023 earnings announcement.

今天早些時候，我們發布了 2023 年第四季財報公告。

You can access this announcement on the investor relations page of our website, www.aam.com and through the PR Newswire services.

您可以透過我們網站 www.aam.com 的投資者關係頁面以及美通社服務取得本公告。

You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the investor page of our website as well.

您也可以在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到本次電話會議的補充幻燈片。

To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1-877-344-7529, replay access code 2703442.

若要收聽此通話的重播，您可以撥打 1-877-344-7529，重播接入碼 2703442。

This replay will be available through February 23.

該重播將持續到 2 月 23 日。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties which cannot be predicted or quantified, and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包含評論和前瞻性陳述，這些評論和前瞻性陳述受到無法預測或量化的風險和不確定性的影響，並可能導致未來的活動和營運結果出現差異實質上來自所討論的內容。

For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，在這次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Information regarding these non-GAAP measures, as well as reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information, is available on our website.

有關這些非 GAAP 衡量標準的信息，以及這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與 GAAP 財務資訊的調整表，請訪問我們的網站。

With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dauch.

接下來，讓我將此事轉交給 AAM 董事長兼執行長 David Dauch。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。

Thank you for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2023.

感謝您今天加入我們討論 AAM 2023 年第四季和全年的財務表現。

Joining me on the call today are Chris May, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯梅。

To begin my comments today, I'll review the highlights of our fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 financial performance.

首先，我將回顧我們第四季和 2023 年全年財務表現的亮點。

Next, I'll cover our achievements in 2023 on both our electrification and legacy businesses.

接下來，我將介紹 2023 年我們在電氣化和傳統業務方面的成就。

After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we will open up the call for any questions that you all may have.

在克里斯介紹了我們的財務表現的詳細資訊後，我們將打開電話詢問大家可能有的任何問題。

So let's begin.

那麼就讓我們開始吧。

From a big-picture standpoint, AAM's fourth quarter operating results were negatively impacted by the UAW work stoppage.

從大局來看，AAM 第四季的經營業績受到 UAW 停工的負面影響。

However, our performance was on track with our improvement objectives that we shared with you on the last call, ending a challenging 2023 on a positive trajectory.

然而，我們的業績符合我們在上次電話會議中與您分享的改進目標，以積極的軌跡結束了充滿挑戰的 2023 年。

In addition, we continued to generate positive cash flow and pay down our debt along the way.

此外，我們一路上繼續產生正現金流並償還債務。

AAM's fourth quarter of 2023 sales were $1.5 billion.

AAM 2023 年第四季的銷售額為 15 億美元。

And for the full year, AAM sales were approximately $6.1 billion.

AAM 全年銷售額約 61 億美元。

From a profitability perspective, AAM's adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $169.5 million or 11.6% of sales.

從獲利能力的角度來看，AAM 第四季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.695 億美元，佔銷售額的 11.6%。

For the full year, AAM's adjusted EBITDA was $693.3 million or 11.4% of sales.

全年，AAM 調整後的 EBITDA 為 6.933 億美元，佔銷售額的 11.4%。

AAM's adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2023 was a loss of $0.09 per share.

AAM 2023 年第四季調整後每股盈餘為每股虧損 0.09 美元。

For the full year, AAM's adjusted EPS was also a loss of $0.09 per share.

全年來看，AAM 調整後每股盈餘也虧損 0.09 美元。

For the full year, AAM's adjusted free cash flow was $219 million.

全年，AAM 調整後的自由現金流為 2.19 億美元。

This cash flow was deployed in 2023 to support debt reduction and electrification investments to position us for future growth.

這筆現金流於 2023 年部署，用於支持債務削減和電氣化投資，為我們未來的成長做好準備。

Chris will provide additional information regarding the details of our financial results in a few minutes.

克里斯將在幾分鐘內提供有關我們財務業績細節的更多資訊。

On slide 4 of our presentation deck, we are providing an update to our performance objectives overview slide that we initially shared with you in the last quarter.

在簡報的第 4 張投影片中，我們提供了上個季度最初與您分享的績效目標概述投影片的更新。

First, we experienced more customer stability in the latter part of the fourth quarter.

首先，我們在第四季後半段經歷了更多的客戶穩定性。

And that trend has continued into the first quarter of 2024, which is a positive.

這種趨勢一直持續到 2024 年第一季度，這是正面的。

However, it is early in the year, and we remain optimistic but a little cautious.

然而，現在還處於年初，我們保持樂觀但有些謹慎。

The UAW work stoppage ended in the fourth quarter, and impacted plants have all resumed production, and we now consider this matter closed in its entirety.

UAW停工已於第四季結束，受影響的工廠已全部恢復生產，我們現在認為此事已全部結束。

As for commercial recoveries, we concluded a number of discussions at the very tail end of the year, with positive results.

關於商業復甦，我們在年底完成了一些討論，並取得了積極的成果。

We accomplished our primary objectives for 2023, and now have a few customers to close out in the first quarter here in 2024.

我們完成了 2023 年的主要目標，現在有一些客戶需要在 2024 年第一季關閉。

We are also making steady progress on improving operations at a number of underperforming plants.

我們在改善一些表現不佳的工廠的運作方面也取得了穩步進展。

And we're on track with our objectives and progress has been good.

我們正在實現我們的目標，並且進展良好。

We will continue to allocate the necessary resources to get these plants back to AAM standards and in the time frame that we noted on the chart.

我們將繼續分配必要的資源，讓這些工廠在我們在圖表上註明的時間範圍內恢復到 AAM 標準。

Overall, we feel very good about the glide path we are on to resolve the aforementioned topics.

整體而言，我們對解決上述主題的順利進展感到非常滿意。

Let me now talk about business updates and the 2023 highlights, which you can see on slides 5 and 6.

現在讓我談談業務更新和 2023 年亮點，您可以在幻燈片 5 和 6 中看到。

New for the quarter, we are very pleased to announce that AAM will supply DongFeng with final drive units for a four-wheel drive plug-in hybrid SUV program in the China market.

本季我們非常高興地宣布，AAM 將為東風汽車在中國市場的四輪驅動插電式混合動力 SUV 專案提供最終傳動裝置。

We're also happy to share that AAM will provide eLocking differentials to a Mahindra SUV program launching here in 2024.

我們也很高興地宣布，AAM 將為 2024 年在這裡推出的 Mahindra SUV 專案提供 eLocking 差速器。

And lastly, we have begun shipping electric vehicle components to VinFast for its mid-sized electric vehicle program from our recent Tekfor acquisition.

最後，我們已開始向 VinFast 運送電動車零件，用於我們最近收購的 Tekfor 的中型電動車專案。

On the recognition side, AAM's China operations was recently recognized by SAIC-GM for quality excellence and supply chain stability, and also earned an excellent Supplier of the Year Award from Chery itself.

在認可方面，AAM 中國業務最近因其卓越的品質和供應鏈穩定性而獲得了上汽通用汽車的認可，並獲得了奇瑞頒發的年度優秀供應商獎。

On slide six, it clearly highlights that 2023 was a challenging year from many perspectives.

第六張投影片清楚強調，從許多角度來看，2023 年都是充滿挑戰的一年。

But it also was an eventful year for us with many accomplishments, and I just want to highlight a few of those accomplishments.

但這對我們來說也是不平凡的一年，取得了許多成就，我只想強調其中的一些成就。

After sharing with you our e-Beam awards with EKA Mobility and Jupiter, we announced a significant win with Stellantis, supplying 3-in-1 e-Beams for a future EV program launching in the latter part of the decade.

在與您分享我們與 EKA Mobility 和 Jupiter 獲得的電子束獎項後，我們宣布與 Stellantis 取得重大勝利，為本世紀後半段推出的未來電動車項目提供三合一電子束。

This was soon followed up with an e-Beam award announced with Skywell and Mahindra.

隨後不久，Skywell 和 Mahindra 宣布獲得 e-Beam 獎。

In addition, our cutting-edge e-Beam technology is a PACEpilot Award finalist.

此外，我們的尖端電子束技術已入圍 PACEpilot 獎決賽。

As you already know, we won multiple PACE awards for our electric driving customer collaboration over the years.

如您所知，多年來我們因電動駕駛客戶合作而榮獲多項 PACE 獎項。

So I'm excited about what we continue to do in that area.

因此，我對我們在該領域繼續進行的工作感到興奮。

Our technology is certainly being recognized, and it gives us further confidence about our competitiveness.

我們的技術無疑得到了認可，這讓我們對自己的競爭力更有信心。

In addition, our legacy business continues to gain traction globally.

此外，我們的傳統業務繼續在全球範圍內獲得關注。

We announced award with FAW Group, supplying independent front axles for multiple plug-in hybrid vehicle models; and with JETOUR, providing power transfer units and rear drive modules for multiple all-wheel-drive SUV programs.

宣布與一汽集團合作，為多款插電式混合動力車型提供獨立前軸；並與捷途合作，為多種全輪驅動SUV專案提供動力傳輸單元和後驅動模組。

These awards signify AAM's broad product portfolio that supports multiple powertrain configurations.

這些獎項標誌著 AAM 支援多種動力系統配置的廣泛產品組合。

Finally, in 2023, AAM was recognized with a number of business and DEI awards.

最終，在 2023 年，AAM 獲得了多項商業和 DEI 獎項。

In particular, Forbes named AAM one of America's Best Employers for Diversity in 2023.

特別是，《富比士》將 AAM 評為 2023 年美國多元化最佳雇主之一。

AAM continues to make great strides in diversity, equity, inclusion, as well as environmental sustainability, and we look forward to publishing our new sustainability report in the near future.

AAM 繼續在多元化、公平性、包容性以及環境永續性方面取得巨大進步，我們期待在不久的將來發布新的永續發展報告。

Now let's talk about our strategy.

現在讓我們談談我們的策略。

And we'll continue to secure our legacy core business, which we've made very good progress on.

我們將繼續保護我們的傳統核心業務，我們已經在這方面取得了很好的進展。

We're improving and optimizing our operations.

我們正在改進和優化我們的營運。

We're driving EBITDA and free cash flow performance in generation.

我們正在不斷推動 EBITDA 和自由現金流表現。

And as you know, our business model is designed to yield solid conversion with consistent volumes, and those volumes are getting stronger.

如您所知，我們的業務模式旨在以穩定的銷售量實現穩定的轉化，而且這些銷售量正在變得越來越強勁。

At the same time, we'll continue to invest in electrification and solidify our position as a global leader in e-Propulsion systems, providing the OEMs with cost-effective, high-value solutions, from e-Beam axles and electric drive units and to components as well.

同時，我們將繼續投資電氣化，鞏固我們作為電動推進系統全球領導者的地位，為 OEM 提供經濟高效、高價值的解決方案，包括 e-Beam 車軸和電力驅動裝置以及以及組件。

However, the reality is the industry is in an air pocket, as OEMs reassess their respective electrification strategies, driven by many factors, including consumer adoption, electric infrastructure, cost, and government regulations, just to name a few.

然而，現實情況是，該行業正陷入困境，因為原始設備製造商在消費者採用、電力基礎設施、成本和政府法規等多種因素的推動下重新評估各自的電氣化策略。

As these factors are being weighed, AAM will continue to run our aforementioned playbook and be ready for any shifts in powertrain needs.

在權衡這些因素時，AAM 將繼續執行我們前面提到的策略，並為動力系統需求的任何變化做好準備。

Before I turn it over to Chris, let me discuss our three-year business backlog and our 2024 full-year financial outlook that was included in our press release this morning.

在我將其交給 Chris 之前，讓我先討論一下我們的三年業務積壓工作以及我們今天上午新聞稿中包含的 2024 年全年財務展望。

AAM expects our gross new business backlog covering the three-year period of 2024 through 2026 to be approximately $600 million.

AAM 預計 2024 年至 2026 年三年期間的新業務積壓總額約為 6 億美元。

For the backlog breakdown, please refer to slide 7.

有關積壓的詳細情況，請參閱投影片 7。

About 50% of our backlog stems from electrification, and this is up from last year, which was at 40%.

我們大約 50% 的積壓訂單來自電氣化，這數字高於去年的 40%。

We expect the launch cadence of our backlog to be $300 million in 2024, $175 million in 2025, and $125 million in 2026.

我們預計 2024 年積壓計畫的啟動節奏為 3 億美元，2025 年為 1.75 億美元，2026 年為 1.25 億美元。

The new backlog nicely encompasses the mix of ICE and electric programs, including pickups, CEV programs in Asia, and additional model variants for other sophisticated electric drive units, to highlight a few.

新的積壓訂單很好地涵蓋了內燃機和電動項目的組合，包括皮卡、亞洲的 CEV 項目，以及其他複雜電動驅動裝置的其他型號變體，以強調其中的一些。

Our backlog factors in the impact of updated customer launch timing, our latest customer volume expectations, and does not include replaced new business, just and only new and incremental business.

我們的積壓因素考慮了更新的客戶啟動時間、我們最新的客戶量預期的影響，並且不包括被替換的新業務，僅包括新的增量業務。

And the backlog encapsulates recent OEM powertrain trends and timing estimates.

積壓的訂單概括了最近的 OEM 動力總成趨勢和時間估計。

From a launch standpoint, we have 19 launches in calendar year 2024, which should drive growth over the next several years. 2024 is a big year for AAM in terms of launch activity.

從發布的角度來看，我們在 2024 年推出了 19 個產品，這應該會推動未來幾年的成長。就啟動活動而言，2024 年對 AAM 來說是重要的一年。

In addition to our healthy $300 million new business backlog this year, we have major replacement business launches taking place already in the beginning of this year.

除了今年 3 億美元的健康積壓新業務外，我們還在今年年初啟動了重大替代業務。

And particularly, with the Ram heavy-duty truck, the ICE version, and GM mid-sized CEV platforms.

尤其是 Ram 重型卡車、ICE 版本和通用汽車中型 CEV 平台。

Both of these sizable and popular platforms will continue to help fuel AAM's business into the next decade.

這兩個規模龐大且廣受歡迎的平台將繼續幫助推動 AAM 的業務進入下一個十年。

So let's talk about 2024 from an end-market perspective.

那我們就從終端市場的角度來談談2024年。

We forecast production at approximately 15.8 million units for our primary North American market.

我們預計北美主要市場的產量約為 1580 萬台。

We are monitoring multiple factors that can swing production, including interest rates and the health of the consumer.

我們正在監控可能影響生產的多種因素，包括利率和消費者健康狀況。

Slide 8 illustrates AAM's 2024 financial outlook.

幻燈片 8 說明了 AAM 的 2024 年財務前景。

AAM is targeting sales of $6.05 billion to $6.35 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $685 million to $750 million, and adjusted free cash flow of approximately $200 million to $240 million.

AAM 的目標銷售額為 60.5 億至 63.5 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 約為 6.85 億至 7.5 億美元，調整後自由現金流約為 2 億至 2.4 億美元。

In the longer term, we'll continue to stay focused on securing our core business, generating strong free cash flow, strengthening our balance sheet, advancing our electrification portfolio, and positioning AAM for profitable growth.

從長遠來看，我們將繼續專注於確保我們的核心業務、產生強勁的自由現金流、強化我們的資產負債表、推進我們的電氣化產品組合，並為 AAM 實現盈利增長奠定基礎。

Team AAM looks forward to a positive and productive 2024.

AAM 團隊期待 2024 年積極且富有成效。

That concludes my formal remarks.

我的正式發言到此結束。

Let me now turn the call over to our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May.

現在讓我將電話轉給我們的執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯梅。

Chris?

克里斯？

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。

I will cover the financial details of our fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 with you today.

今天我將向您介紹我們第四季和 2023 年全年的財務細節。

I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments.

我還將參考收益幻燈片，作為我準備好的評論的一部分。

So let's go ahead and begin with sales.

那麼就讓我們從銷售開始吧。

In the fourth quarter of 2023, AAM sales were $1.46 billion compared to $1.39 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022.

2023 年第四季度，AAM 銷售額為 14.6 億美元，而 2022 年第四季為 13.9 億美元。

Slide 11 shows a walk of fourth-quarter 2022 sales to fourth-quarter 2023 sales.

投影片 11 顯示了 2022 年第四季銷售額到 2023 年第四季銷售額的變化。

Positive volume mix and other was $158 million, driven in part by our backlog and certain platforms not impacted by the UAW work stoppage.

正銷售組合和其他收入為 1.58 億美元，部分原因是我們的積壓訂單以及未受 UAW 停工影響的某些平台。

The UAW work stoppage had an $84 million negative impact to sales in the quarter.

UAW 停工對該季度的銷售額造成了 8,400 萬美元的負面影響。

And lastly, metal market pass-throughs and FX lowered net sales by approximately $1 million, with metals lower, and FX higher.

最後，金屬市場轉手和外匯導致淨銷售額減少約 100 萬美元，其中金屬價格較低，外匯價格較高。

For the full year of 2023, AAM sales were $6.1 billion as compared to $5.8 billion for the full year of 2022.

2023 年全年，AAM 銷售額為 61 億美元，而 2022 年全年銷售額為 58 億美元。

The primary drivers of the increase were volume and mix, the five-month contribution from our Tekfor acquisition, and AAM's new business backlog, partially offset by the UAW work stoppage and lower metal market pass-throughs.

成長的主要驅動因素是銷售和產品組合、收購 Tekfor 帶來的五個月貢獻以及 AAM 的新業務積壓，但部分被 UAW 停工和較低的金屬市場傳遞所抵消。

Now let's move on to profitability.

現在讓我們轉向獲利能力。

Gross profit was $154.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 as compared to $167.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.

2023 年第四季的毛利為 1.549 億美元，而 2022 年第四季的毛利為 1.672 億美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was $169.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 versus $157.7 million last year.

2023 年第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.695 億美元，去年為 1.577 億美元。

You can see a year-over-year walk down of adjusted EBITDA on slide 12.

您可以在投影片 12 上看到調整後的 EBITDA 逐年下降。

In the quarter, volume, mix and other added a net $39 million of adjusted EBITDA versus the prior year.

本季度，與前一年相比，銷售、組合和其他調整後 EBITDA 淨增加 3,900 萬美元。

The UAW work stoppage had a $23 million negative impact to the quarter.

UAW 停工對該季度造成了 2,300 萬美元的負面影響。

R&D was slightly higher year over year to support product launches and our electrification advancements.

研發年比略高，以支援產品發布和我們的電氣化進步。

And maybe most importantly, net inflation, performance, and other was $13 million favorable, as plant efficiency improvement objectives remained on track, and we concluded a number of commercial discussions at the tail end of last year.

也許最重要的是，淨通貨膨脹、績效和其他方面有利 1300 萬美元，因為工廠效率改進目標仍然在正軌上，我們在去年年底完成了一些商業討論。

For the full year of 2023, AAM's adjusted EBITDA was $693.3 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin was 11.4% of sales.

2023 年全年，AAM 調整後 EBITDA 為 6.933 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率的 11.4%。

Let me now cover SG&A.

現在讓我介紹一下 SG&A。

SG&A expense, including R&D in the fourth quarter of 2023, was $95.7 million or 6.5% of sales.

SG&A 費用（包括 2023 年第四季的研發費用）為 9,570 萬美元，佔銷售額的 6.5%。

This compares to $88.5 million or 6.4% of sales in the fourth quarter of 2022.

相比之下，2022 年第四季銷售額為 8,850 萬美元，佔銷售額的 6.4%。

AAM's R&D spending in the fourth quarter of 2023 was approximately $40 million.

AAM 2023 年第四季的研發支出約為 4,000 萬美元。

As we head into 2024, we will continue to focus on controlling our SG&A costs and investing in our electric drive technology.

進入 2024 年，我們將繼續專注於控制 SG&A 成本並投資於我們的電力驅動技術。

We expect R&D to be flattish year over year.

我們預計研發將與去年同期持平。

We anticipate about $35 million to $40 million per quarter on average, although it can be lumpy, as we expect the annual pace of spending to moderate in the coming years, as we finish developing our electric platform technologies.

我們預計平均每季約為 3,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元，儘管可能會波動較大，因為隨著我們完成電動平台技術的開發，我們預計未來幾年每年的支出速度將會放緩。

Let's move on to interest and taxes.

讓我們繼續討論利息和稅收。

Net interest expense was $42.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to $36.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.

2023 年第四季的淨利息支出為 4,290 萬美元，而 2022 年第四季為 3,690 萬美元。

Although our total debt is lower at quarter end on a year-over-year basis, the rising rate environment drove the interest expense increase.

儘管季末我們的總債務同比有所下降，但利率上升的環境推動了利息支出的增加。

In the fourth quarter of 2023, we recorded income tax expense of $5.8 million compared to an expense of $4.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.

2023 年第四季度，我們的所得稅費用為 580 萬美元，而 2022 年第四季的所得稅費用為 410 萬美元。

The unusual book rate for the quarter includes the recording of valuation allowances that we have discussed in previous calls.

本季不尋常的帳面利率包括我們在先前的電話會議中討論過的估值備抵記錄。

As we head into 2024, we expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 25% to 30%.

進入 2024 年，我們預計調整後的有效稅率約為 25% 至 30%。

Taking all these sales and cost drivers into account, our GAAP net loss was $19.1 million or $0.16 per share in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to net income of $13.9 million or $0.11 per share in the fourth quarter of 2022.

考慮到所有這些銷售和成本驅動因素，我們2023 年第四季的GAAP 淨虧損為1,910 萬美元，即每股0.16 美元，而2022 年第四季的淨利潤為1,390 萬美元，即每股0.11 美元。

Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release, was a loss of $0.09 per share in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared to a loss of $0.07 per share in the fourth quarter of 2022.

調整後每股收益（不包括我們收益新聞稿中提到的項目的影響）為 2023 年第四季每股虧損 0.09 美元，而 2022 年第四季每股虧損 0.07 美元。

For the full year of 2023, AAM's adjusted loss per share was $0.09 versus earnings of $0.60 in 2022.

2023 年全年，AAM 調整後每股虧損為 0.09 美元，而 2022 年每股收益為 0.60 美元。

Let's now move to cash flow and the balance sheet.

現在讓我們轉向現金流和資產負債表。

Net cash provided by operating activities for the fourth quarter of 2023 was $52.9 million.

2023 年第四季經營活動提供的淨現金為 5,290 萬美元。

Capital expenditures, net of proceeds from the sale of property, plant, and equipment, for the fourth quarter of 2023 were $55.9 million.

2023 年第四季的資本支出（扣除出售房產、廠房和設備的收益）為 5,590 萬美元。

Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the fourth quarter of 2023 were $7.5 million.

2023 年第四季重組和收購相關活動的現金支付為 750 萬美元。

Reflecting the impact of these activities, AAM generated adjusted free cash flow of $4.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.

反映出這些活動的影響，AAM 在 2023 年第四季產生了 450 萬美元的調整後自由現金流。

For the full year of 2023, AAM generated adjusted free cash flow of $219 million, compared to $313 million in 2022.

2023 年全年，AAM 產生的調整後自由現金流為 2.19 億美元，而 2022 年為 3.13 億美元。

As a team, we remain focused on free cash flow conversion, including managing CapEx effectiveness and efficiency and reducing cash restructuring payments.

作為一個團隊，我們仍然專注於自由現金流轉換，包括管理資本支出的有效性和效率以及減少現金重組付款。

From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the year with net debt of $2.2 billion and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $693 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 3.2 times at December 31.

從債務槓桿角度來看，我們年底的淨債務為 22 億美元，LTM 調整後 EBITDA 為 6.93 億美元，計算截至 12 月 31 日的淨槓桿率為 3.2 倍。

This is down from 3.3 times leverage ratio at September 30, 2023.

這低於 2023 年 9 月 30 日的 3.3 倍槓桿率。

In 2023, we lowered our senior gross debt by over $140 million, including over $85 million in the fourth quarter.

2023 年，我們將優先債務總額減少了超過 1.4 億美元，其中第四季的債務總額減少了超過 8,500 萬美元。

We will continue to strengthen the balance sheet by reducing our outstanding indebtedness.

我們將繼續透過減少未償債務來強化資產負債表。

AAM ended 2023 with total available liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion, consisting of available cash and borrowing capacity on AAM's global credit facilities.

截至 2023 年底，AAM 的可用流動性總額約為 15 億美元，其中包括可用現金和 AAM 全球信貸安排的借貸能力。

Before we move to the Q&A portion of the call, let me provide some thoughts on our backlog and 2024 financial outlook.

在我們進入電話會議的問答部分之前，讓我對我們的積壓工作和 2024 年財務前景提供一些想法。

In our earnings slide deck, we have included walks from 2023 actual results to our 2024 financial targets, and you can find those starting on slide 14.

在我們的收益幻燈片中，我們包含了從 2023 年實際業績到 2024 年財務目標的演進，您可以從投影片 14 開始找到這些目標。

From a backlog perspective, the industry is at a juncture where OEMs are reformulating their electric vehicle product plans and timing, driven by a variety of factors.

從積壓訂單的角度來看，該行業正處於原始設備製造商在多種因素的推動下重新制定電動車產品計劃和時機的關鍵時刻。

Similar to the industry, AAM is not immune to these cross currents, and our new 2024 to 2026 backlog reflects timing of this environment.

與業界類似，AAM 也不能倖免於這些逆流，我們新的 2024 年至 2026 年積壓工作反映了這種環境的時機。

However, the good news here is under various scenarios, our base core business can remain quite strong for longer.

然而，好消息是在各種情況下，我們的基礎核心業務可以在更長的時間內保持相當強勁的勢頭。

Demand for our new next-generation business we are launching should be robust and possibly extend further.

對我們正在推出的新的下一代業務的需求應該會很強勁，並且可能會進一步擴大。

And all that is good for AAM.

這一切對 AAM 來說都是好事。

Let's talk about our guidance for 2024.

讓我們談談我們對 2024 年的指導。

For sales, we are targeting the range of $6.05 billion to $6.35 billion for 2024.

對於銷售額，我們的目標是 2024 年達到 60.5 億美元至 63.5 億美元。

The sales target is based upon a North American production of approximately 15.8 million units and assumptions for our key programs.

銷售目標是基於北美約 1580 萬台的產量以及我們關鍵項目的假設。

New business backlog launches of approximately $300 million and attrition of approximately $220 million.

新業務積壓啟動約 3 億美元，消耗約 2.2 億美元。

We are cautiously optimistic that the supply chain has now a better footing to support more stability versus the past several years, but we are monitoring this very closely.

我們謹慎樂觀地認為，與過去幾年相比，供應鏈現在擁有更好的基礎來支援更高的穩定性，但我們正在密切關注這一情況。

From an EBITDA perspective, we are expecting adjusted EBITDA in the range of $685 million to $750 million.

從 EBITDA 角度來看，我們預計調整後 EBITDA 在 6.85 億美元至 7.5 億美元之間。

And let me provide some color on the key elements of our year-over-year EBITDA walk that is on page 15.

讓我對第 15 頁的逐年 EBITDA 分析的關鍵要素做一些說明。

We expect to convert our year-over-year product volume and mix increase at approximately 25% variable profit.

我們預計我們的產品數量和產品組合的同比增長將達到約 25% 的可變利潤。

As mentioned earlier, our R&D spending will be flattish year over year as we invest in our future and support electrification products and projects that we are in various stages of development.

如前所述，我們的研發支出將比去年同期持平，因為我們投資於未來並支持處於不同發展階段的電氣化產品和專案。

AAM expects to deliver cost reductions, operational productivity, and commercial actions to mitigate inflationary costs and deliver year-over-year efficiency gains.

AAM 期望實現成本降低、營運生產力和商業行動，以減輕通貨膨脹成本並實現逐年效率提升。

You can see year-over-year performance improvements as a net favorable $35 million on our walk.

您可以看到我們的步行淨收益為 3500 萬美元，年比績效有所改善。

And lastly, we expect the net negative impact to the metal markets and FX, with the majority of this related to the strengthening of the Mexican peso.

最後，我們預期金屬市場和外匯將受到淨負面影響，其中大部分與墨西哥比索的走強有關。

On page 16, from an adjusted free cash flow perspective, we are targeting approximately $200 million to $240 million in 2024.

在第 16 頁，從調整後的自由現金流角度來看，我們的目標是到 2024 年約為 2 億至 2.4 億美元。

The main factors driving our cash flow changes are as follows.

驅動我們現金流變動的主要因素如下。

We have higher capital expenditures stemming from key launches and investments such as automation.

由於自動化等關鍵產品的推出和投資，我們的資本支出較高。

A number of these launches are related to our large next-generation core programs that we secured.

其中許多發布都與我們獲得的大型下一代核心計劃有關。

And we are targeting CapEx as a percent of sale of approximately 4% to 4.5%.

我們的目標是資本支出佔銷售額的百分比約為 4% 至 4.5%。

We are also expecting moderately higher cash interest and taxes.

我們也預期現金利息和稅收將適度增加。

Lastly, while not included in our adjusted free cash flow figures, we estimate our restructuring payments to be in the range of $15 million to $25 million for 2024, as we look to finalize the integration of recent acquisitions and further optimize our business.

最後，雖然未包含在我們調整後的自由現金流數據中，但我們預計2024 年的重組付款將在1500 萬至2500 萬美元之間，因為我們希望最終完成最近收購的整合並進一步優化我們的業務。

We continue to focus on the reduction of these type of expenditures.

我們繼續關注減少此類支出。

In addition, we expect to use the free cash flow generated in 2024 to continue to reduce debt, further solidify our position in electrification, and take advantage of select market opportunities to support growth, should they arise.

此外，我們預計將利用 2024 年產生的自由現金流繼續減少債務，進一步鞏固我們在電氣化領域的地位，並利用特定的市場機會來支持成長（如果出現）。

We are excited about AAM's cash flow generation potential as we launch over $10 billion of next-generation full-size truck axle programs, with multiple customers from mid-decade to beyond 2030.

我們對 AAM 的現金流產生潛力感到興奮，因為我們啟動了價值超過 100 億美元的下一代全尺寸卡車車橋項目，從十年中期到 2030 年以後將擁有多個客戶。

From a CapEx perspective, our goal is to remain under 5% of sales, but there could be years that we may spike over that mark depending on launch cadence.

從資本支出的角度來看，我們的目標是保持在銷售額的 5% 以下，但根據發布節奏，我們可能會在幾年內突破這一目標。

As it relates to cadence for the year, sales cadence is similar to 2023, with first and fourth quarters being lower than the second and third quarters.

由於與全年節奏相關，銷售節奏與 2023 年類似，第一季和第四季低於第二季和第三季。

And as depicted on our slide 4 of our deck, we anticipate exiting the listed challenges by the second quarter.

如投影片 4 所示，我們預計到第二季即可解決列出的挑戰。

From a cash flow perspective, we expect the seasonal cash flow use in the first quarter.

從現金流角度來看，我們預計第一季現金流使用季節性。

Overall, we're expecting a more stable operating environment relative to 2023.

總體而言，我們預計營運環境將比 2023 年更加穩定。

As underperforming plans hit operational stride, costs stabilize, and additional productivity improvements are achieved, AAM should generate nice future EBITDA conversion, setting up the opportunity for continued financial performance.

隨著表現不佳的計劃實現營運進步、成本穩定以及生產力的進一步提高，AAM 未來應該會產生良好的 EBITDA 轉換，從而為持續的財務表現創造機會。

Thank you for your time and participation on the call today.

感謝您抽空參加今天的電話會議。

I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David, so we can start Q&A.

我要在這裡停下來，將電話轉回給大衛，以便我們可以開始問答。

David?

大衛？

Thank you, Chris and David.

謝謝你們，克里斯和大衛。

We have reserved some time to take questions.

我們預留了一些時間來回答問題。

(Event Instructions)

（活動須知）

(Operator Instructions) Dan Levy, Barclays.

（操作員指示）Dan Levy，巴克萊銀行。

Wanted to start with just a couple of questions on the '24 EBITDA walk.

我想先問幾個關於 24 年 EBITDA 的問題。

Maybe you could just clarify a couple of items here.

也許您可以在這裡澄清一些事項。

The metal markets and FX, just what are you assuming in terms of peso case of transaction headwinds and anything on the commodity side?

金屬市場和外匯，您對比索交易逆風和大宗商品的情況有何假設？

And then maybe I see R&D is a $5 million headwind.

然後也許我認為研發是 500 萬美元的逆風。

What are the puts and takes within that?

其中的看跌期權和索取金額是什麼？

How much is R&D related to EV programs versus core R&D on ICE?

與電動車專案的研發與內燃機核心研發的相關程度如何？

Yes, Dan, good morning.

是的，丹，早安。

This is Chris.

這是克里斯。

I'll take both of those questions.

我將回答這兩個問題。

We'll start with the R&D, then we can talk about the FX and metals.

我們將從研發開始，然後我們可以討論外匯和金屬。

From an R&D perspective, this really gets us to a run rate of about $40 million a quarter, up from $155 million in 2023 to $160 million in 2024.

從研發角度來看，這確實使我們的營運費用達到了每季約 4,000 萬美元，從 2023 年的 1.55 億美元增加到 2024 年的 1.6 億美元。

And principally, this continues to be the build-out of some of our electrification platforms.

主要的是，這仍然是我們一些電氣化平台的擴展。

So as David mentioned, we do have some large, I would call it, replacement business launching this year, which will require a little bit from an R&D perspective, more on the D side.

正如大衛所提到的，我們今年確實推出了一些大型的，我稱之為替代業務，這需要從研發的角度來看，更多的是在研發方面。

And so that's why we said year over year, we see it flattish.

這就是為什麼我們說年復一年，我們看到它持平。

From a metal market and FX perspective, as you can see on that walk, it is minus $20 million.

從金屬市場和外匯的角度來看，正如您在這次步行中看到的那樣，它是負 2000 萬美元。

Most of that is just simply related to the strengthening of the Mexican peso.

其中大部分只是與墨西哥比索的走強有關。

As you know, we're a large consumer of the peso.

如您所知，我們是比索的大消費者。

We used about MXN5 billion to MXN6 billion a year inside of our Mexico operations.

我們在墨西哥的業務每年消耗約 50 億至 60 億墨西哥比索。

It's about 1.5 points lower than our experience in 2023.

比我們 2023 年的經驗低約 1.5 個百分點。

So we're in that 18% to 18.25% range of our estimate going forward.

因此，我們對未來的預測處於 18% 至 18.25% 的範圍內。

And that's a blended rate with our hedges as well as some floating.

這是與我們的對沖以及一些浮動的混合利率。

Okay.

好的。

And the peso assumption, that now is a full true-up?

那麼比索假設現在已經完全正確了嗎？

Or there's still some heads outstanding that in the future once those reset, that would be an additional headwind based on where the peso is?

或者還有一些懸而未決的問題，一旦這些問題重置，根據比索的情況，這將是一個額外的阻力？

We're at a consistent, I would call it a year-year rolling hedge program.

我們實行的是一致的，我稱之為年度滾動對沖計劃。

So we're constantly hedging three years out at various levels from a risk management perspective.

因此，從風險管理的角度來看，我們不斷在不同層面上對沖三年後的風險。

And it will ultimately depend on the underlying spot rate to how you place those forward into the subsequent one, two, or three years.

最終將取決於基礎即期匯率以及您如何將其遠期到​​接下來的一年、兩年或三年。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The second question is on the backlog, where essentially 40% of the prior backlog of 50% of the current backlog gets you to similar electrification bookings.

第二個問題是關於積壓訂單，基本上之前積壓訂單的 40% 或當前積壓訂單的 50% 可以讓您獲得類似的電氣化預訂。

Maybe you could just provide some context on those figures in light of the slowdown, some of the pushout of programs that we've seen?

也許您可以根據經濟放緩以及我們看到的一些計劃的推出來提供這些數字的一些背景資訊？

How much of this is booked and solid versus still based on maybe their EV assumptions from the OEM?

其中有多少是已預訂且可靠的，與仍基於 OEM 的電動車假設？

Yes.

是的。

Dan, I'll take the first crack at that as well.

丹，我也將首先嘗試這一點。

At least from a -- I mean, these are all booked programs.

至少從——我的意思是，這些都是預訂的節目。

Obviously, we're subject to volume estimates from our consumer -- or our customer is writing other inputs and our own judgment on those.

顯然，我們受到消費者對數量的估計——或者我們的客戶正在寫其他輸入以及我們自己對這些輸入的判斷。

And yes, while it clipped up from last year, meaning from a percent of the backlog, from 40% to 50%, keep in mind, inside of '23, we were launching a fair amount of our drive units with AMG and some others as well.

是的，雖然它比去年有所減少，這意味著積壓的百分比從 40% 到 50%，但請記住，在 23 年期間，我們與 AMG 和其他一些公司一起推出了相當數量的驅動單元以及。

So some of those started production already.

所以其中一些已經開始生產。

So this is some incremental wins that we had that will launch over the next couple of years.

因此，這是我們將在未來幾年內推出的一些增量勝利。

But from an absolute dollar, it's flat.

但從絕對美元來看，它是持平的。

But we've already started to record the actual revenue of some of the prior backlog in 2023.

但我們已經開始記錄 2023 年之前部分積壓訂單的實際收入。

And that continues to grow.

而且這種情況還在持續成長。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

James Picariello, BNP Paribas.

詹姆斯·皮卡里洛，法國巴黎銀行。

Just on your EV program exposure, just any way to think about the EV programs you have in your backlog that you're reporting in the rolling three-year figure relative to your key platform OEM exposure?

就您的電動車專案曝光度而言，有什麼方法可以考慮您在積壓的電動車專案中與您的關鍵平台 OEM 曝光度相關的三年滾動數據中報告的電動車專案嗎？

Just in terms of what that overlap could look like, as we consider the possibility for EV programs to further get pushed and/or delayed, just in terms of what that replacement, the legacy production benefit could be, or what that dynamic looks like?

就重疊可能會是什麼樣子而言，當我們考慮電動車專案進一步推進和/或推遲的可能性時，就替代品、傳統生產效益可能是什麼，或者動態是什麼樣子而言？

So James, this is David.

詹姆斯，這是大衛。

Let me take a crack at it, Chris can add to it.

讓我來嘗試一下，克里斯可以補充一下。

First of all, there's a delay in the EV program, so that's good for our business.

首先，電動車專案有所延遲，這對我們的業務有利。

We can generate strong margins and in that area, strong cash flow continue to fund our electrification growth going forward.

我們可以產生強勁的利潤，在該領域，強勁的現金流繼續為我們未來的電氣化成長提供資金。

At the same time, continue to pay down debt, and work on tactical acquisitions where it makes sense.

同時，繼續償還債務，並在有意義的情況下進行戰術性收購。

So we see that as a positive for us.

所以我們認為這對我們來說是積極的。

At the same time, we're going to continue to develop the portfolio that we need for electrification.

同時，我們將繼續開發電氣化所需的產品組合。

As Chris has already highlighted and I highlighted in my comments, we continue to win new electrification awards.

正如克里斯已經強調的以及我在評論中所強調的那樣，我們繼續贏得新的電氣化獎項。

But to your point, many of the customers are rescoping their program, their content per program, and the volumes that go with that.

但就您而言，許多客戶正在重新調整他們的計劃、每個計劃的內容以及與之相關的數量。

And so our backlog, as we said earlier, is growing year over year.

因此，正如我們之前所說，我們的積壓訂單逐年增加。

We're quoting $1.5 billion of new and incremental business, of which greater than 75% of that is electrification-based.

我們引用了 15 億美元的新業務和增量業務，其中超過 75% 是基於電氣化的。

But most of what we're working on is the latter part of the decade.

但我們所做的大部分工作是在這十年的後半段。

So I think you're going to see, as the OEMs sort out their plans over the next, let's say 12 to 24 months because I think it may take that long.

所以我想你會看到，隨著 OEM 廠商在接下來的 12 到 24 個月內整理他們的計劃，因為我認為可能需要那麼長時間。

Because ultimately, the market is the boss and they've got to put their portfolio in place to be able to support what the consumer demand is.

因為歸根究底，市場才是主宰，他們必須將自己的產品組合到位，才能滿足消費者的需求。

So we'll adjust accordingly, but any delay in EV is only going to ask for more ICE to get inventories where they need to be which, like I said earlier, is a positive thing for AAM.

因此，我們將進行相應調整，但電動車的任何延遲只會要求更多的 ICE 來獲得所需的庫存，正如我之前所說，這對 AAM 來說是一件積極的事情。

So Chris, I don't know if there's anything you want to add or not.

克里斯，我不知道你是否有什麼要補充的。

Yes, specifically to the electrification products inside of our backlog, there's not a lot of overlap with our existing ICE business.

是的，特別是我們積壓訂單中的電氣化產品，與我們現有的 ICE 業務沒有太多重疊。

As you know, AMG is going into multiple derivatives, as we talked about previously, so that continues to expand on that set.

如您所知，正如我們之前討論的那樣，AMG 正在開發多種衍生產品，因此將繼續在該系列上擴展。

But some of the announcements over the last year that we've talked about, especially in the China and India markets, those are incremental to us.

但去年我們談到的一些公告，特別是在中國和印度市場，對我們來說是漸進式的。

But we do see a little bit of overlap on the component side, to the extent that ICE is stronger.

但我們確實看到組件方面有一點重疊，以至於 ICE 更強。

Obviously, our ICE business would pick up any slack from the component side.

顯然，我們的 ICE 業務將彌補組件方面的任何不足。

That's how I think about the electrification.

這就是我對電氣化的看法。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then just my follow-up is, as certain OEMs consider a pivot to hybridization or emphasis on it, as a full driveline supplier, what could be the conceivable fastest turnaround to get an existing ICE driveline to incorporate hybrid?

然後我的後續行動是，由於某些原始設備製造商考慮轉向混合動力或強調混合動力，作為完整的動力傳動系統供應商，可以想像的最快週轉時間是多少，以使現有的ICE 動力傳動系統融入混合動力？

Just high-level thoughts on that?

只是對此的高層想法嗎？

James, for us, the product components and subassemblies that we manufacture between ICE and hybridization are very similar to one another.

James，對我們來說，我們在 ICE 和混合動力之間製造的產品組件和子組件彼此非常相似。

So we can get to the market very quickly without a lot of change.

這樣我們就可以很快進入市場，而無需進行太多改變。

It's really what the OEMs, how they want to identify the type of hybridization that they want to put into their vehicle.

這實際上是原始設備製造商想要如何確定他們想要在車輛中採用的混合動力類型。

But again, that could be a positive for our company.

但這對我們公司來說可能是正面的。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，一點沒錯。

James, keep in perspective, a few years back, some of our customers had some large truck platforms that were hybrid.

詹姆斯，請客觀看待，幾年前，我們的一些客戶擁有一些混合動力的大型卡車平台。

It was the exact same axle for us.

這對我們來說是完全相同的軸。

And that would entail additional content for you, potentially, as well, right?

這也可能會為你帶來額外的內容，對嗎？

There is potential, especially on some of our VCS business as they have -- depending on, obviously, how they -- what type of engine signs, et cetera, inside of a vehicle.

這是有潛力的，尤其是我們的一些 VCS 業務，因為它們顯然取決於它們在車輛內部的引擎標誌類型等。

But potentially, yes.

但有可能，是的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

John Murphy, Bank of America.

約翰‧墨菲，美國銀行。

Surprisingly, I have more questions on the backlog.

令人驚訝的是，我對積壓的問題還有更多疑問。

When you look at this 50% BEV, does that include EV and hybrids?

當您看到這個 50% 純電動車時，這是否包括電動車和混合動力車？

And I wonder if you could maybe give us a split there.

我想知道你是否可以給我們分攤。

And also, Chris, slide 14, you gave us this great $220 million attrition against the $300 million gross.

另外，克里斯，幻燈片 14，您為我們提供了 2.2 億美元的巨大消耗，而總收入為 3 億美元。

So we had a net new business backlog and roll on in '24 of $80 million.

因此，我們的新業務積壓淨額將在 2024 年達到 8,000 萬美元。

I just wonder if you have some similar guidance or something you'd give us there for '25 and '26, so we could back into a net new business backlog.

我只是想知道您是否有一些類似的指導或可以為我們提供 25 和 26 年的指導，以便我們可以重新處理淨新業務積壓。

Yes.

是的。

So let's start with the first question as it relates to our EV backlog, it's all about -- with the exception, technically, in the AMG product, as you know, we supply is technically a hybrid, but it's an electrified axle, but the rest is all BEV in terms of that half, not hybrid.

因此，讓我們從第一個問題開始，因為它與我們的電動車積壓有關，這一切都是關於——技術上的例外，在AMG 產品中，正如你所知，我們提供的技術上是混合動力，但它是一個電動車軸，但剩下的一半都是純電動車，而不是混合動力車。

In terms of how we think about attrition going forward, as you know, this is a little bit larger year for us.

就我們如何看待未來的人員流失而言，如您所知，今年對我們來說是一個更大的一年。

There was a couple of platforms that we supplied that ceased production.

我們提供的幾個平台已經停止生產。

But as you go forward, we typically think about somewhere between $100 million to $200 million of attrition on an annual basis.

但隨著您的發展，我們通常會考慮每年 1 億至 2 億美元的損耗。

So you can use midpoints of those going forward for the time being.

因此，您可以暫時使用未來的中點。

Okay.

好的。

And then just one more follow-up.

然後還有一個後續行動。

I mean, in this, you are not accounting for potential upside in the mid EV program that GM is relaunching, the Ram HD, any upside in GMT programs or the full-size truck at GM.

我的意思是，在這方面，你沒有考慮到通用汽車正在重新推出的中型電動車計劃、Ram HD、GMT 計劃或通用汽車全尺寸卡車的任何優勢。

I mean, there's no accounting for that at all in this backlog whatsoever?

我的意思是，在這個積壓的訂單中根本沒有考慮到這一點？

No, that's all our core business.

不，這就是我們的核心業務。

And the only thing we have a backlog, John, is to an incremental business.

約翰，我們唯一積壓的就是增量業務。

We consider that to be a replacement business, which Is part of our core financials.

我們認為這是一項替代業務，也是我們核心財務的一部分。

Okay.

好的。

And Chris, you mentioned margins on this near and long term on this backlog, as it rolls on.

克里斯，你提到了積壓訂單的近期和長期利潤，隨著它的持續進行。

If you could just talk about maybe the difference between the EV and the ICE backlog?

您能否談談 EV 和 ICE 積壓訂單之間的差異？

Yeah, we've not provided specific margin guidance on splits from EV to our ICE business in the future.

是的，我們沒有就未來從電動車業務分拆到我們的內燃機業務提供具體的利潤指引。

But as we've stated previously, our goal is to drive maximum financial performance of these to ultimately replicate what we have today.

但正如我們之前所說，我們的目標是推動這些公司的財務表現最大化，最終複製我們今天的情況。

But that is a long way to go.

但這還有很長的路要走。

They have long tails before they reach volume, et cetera.

它們在達到體積之前有很長的尾巴，等等。

They'll go through a normal cycle of a product, right?

他們會經歷一個正常的產品週期，對吧？

They'll have investments upfront, they'll have low volume start up, and then they'll get into volume later in their life cycle.

他們將進行前期投資，啟動小批量，然後在生命週期的後期進入大量生產。

It's no different.

沒什麼不同。

I mean, we're generating strong margins on our ICE business today.

我的意思是，我們今天的 ICE 業務正在創造強勁的利潤。

But because we got size and scale, the EV business doesn't have the size and scale to date.

但由於我們已經有了規模和規模，電動車業務迄今為止還沒有達到這樣的規模和規模。

So you can actually expect those margins will be lower.

因此，您實際上可以預期這些利潤會更低。

But as that size and scale grows over time, you can expect that we'll stay focused on delivering on our financial hurdles.

但隨著規模不斷擴大，您可以預期我們將繼續專注於解決財務障礙。

Very helpful guys.

非常有幫助的人。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Winnie Dong, Deutsche Bank.

溫妮‧董，德意志銀行。

I was wondering if you can provide an update on the labor situation.

我想知道您是否可以提供有關勞工狀況的最新資訊。

It was a very helpful slide included in the deck.

這是甲板上包含的一張非常有用的幻燈片。

Maybe if you can go into any latest changes in the availability of labor?

或許您能了解一下勞動力供給的最新變化嗎？

And then what kind of improvement you're anticipating and that's embedded within the outlook?

那麼您期望並包含在前景中的是什麼樣的改進？

Yes.

是的。

Winnie, this is David.

溫妮，這是大衛。

Labor's going to continue to be the problem for the industry going forward here.

勞動力將繼續成為該行業未來發展的問題。

It's not just an American Axle issue, it's an industry and just an overall economic issue.

這不僅是美國車橋的問題，這是一個產業，也是一個整體的經濟問題。

There's a scarcity in labor that’s out there today.

如今，勞動力短缺。

Clearly, we’re doing our necessary things in order to secure our labor going forward.

顯然，我們正在做必要的事情，以確保我們的勞動力繼續前進。

We’re making adjustments in base ways and fully loaded labor cost.

我們正在對基本方式和滿載勞動成本進行調整。

We’re bringing, I think, incremental workers in where we need to, even temps if we have to.

我認為，我們正在將增量工人帶到我們需要的地方，甚至在必要時僱用臨時工。

We’re investing heavily in automation and robotics right now to address any shortfalls that we might have on the labor side.

我們現在正在大力投資自動化和機器人技術，以解決勞動力方面可能存在的任何短缺問題。

And we’re obviously driving productivity and efficiency to try to free up labor in our existing plants, that can be reallocated to other facilities or other work within those facilities.

顯然，我們正在提高生產力和效率，試圖釋放現有工廠的勞動力，這些勞動力可以重新分配到其他設施或這些設施內的其他工作。

And we’re also looking at pack consolidation opportunities as well to free up labor so we can transfer it to other locations.

我們也正在尋找包裝整合機會，以釋放勞動力，以便我們可以將其轉移到其他地點。

So it's demanding a lot of time and a lot of attention.

所以它需要大量的時間和大量的注意力。

It's not an issue that's going away.

這不是一個會消失的問題。

At the same time, with that labor, you're also seeing an increase in costs associated with employing that labor that's going to be sticky and be here, that we're going to have to find a way to offset as we go forward or pass through.

同時，隨著勞動力的增加，您還會看到與僱用勞動力相關的成本增加，這些勞動力將具有黏性並存在於此，我們必須找到一種方法來抵消我們前進或通過。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And I guess in related terms, I was wondering if you can maybe break down the last bucket in the EBITDA walk.

我想用相關的術語來說，我想知道你是否可以分解 EBITDA 中的最後一個桶子。

Obviously, inflation from labor is a headwind, as you said.

顯然，正如您所說，勞動力造成的通貨膨脹是一種逆風。

But what are the other breakdown in buckets that you're hoping to generate, whether it's from recoveries from customers or some of the plant efficiencies that you're planning to generate?

但是，您希望產生的其他細分是什麼，無論是來自客戶的回收還是您計劃產生的一些工廠效率？

Yes, Winnie, I think you're assuming to a year-over-year walk, the $35 million of performance improvement, and what inflation is embedded in there?

是的，Winnie，我認為您假設同比增長 3500 萬美元，其中包含哪些通貨膨脹？

Yes.

是的。

What are the different buckets that are embedded in that performance?

該性能中包含哪些不同的部分？

How we're offsetting labor and

我們如何抵消勞動力和

--

--

Yes.

是的。

So as we think about inflation stepping into 2024, we will have labor inflation as everyone will.

因此，當我們考慮進入 2024 年的通膨時，我們將像所有人一樣面臨勞動力通膨。

And we do have other inflation embedded from some of our purchase components.

我們的一些購買組件中確實還存在其他通貨膨脹。

But through some of our core plant productivity initiatives, we're offsetting much of that labor inflation.

但透過我們一些核心的工廠生產力舉措，我們正在抵銷大部分勞動力通膨。

That would be our expectation.

這將是我們的期望。

Same with anything from the supply base or have commercial arrangements with our customers to mitigate that.

與供應基地的任何東西相同，或與我們的客戶進行商業安排以減輕這種情況。

But far less in scope than we experienced in 2022 and 2023.

但範圍遠小於我們在 2022 年和 2023 年所經歷的情況。

I think that answers your question.

我認為這回答了你的問題。

Yeah.

是的。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you so much for the color.

非常感謝你的顏色。

Joe Spak, UBS.

喬·斯帕克，瑞銀集團。

Maybe just a couple more on the backlog.

也許還有幾個積壓的訂單。

David, you mentioned this air pocket, which makes sense because people are figuring out what to do with EVs and delaying it.

大衛，你提到了這個氣穴，這是有道理的，因為人們正在弄清楚如何處理電動車並推遲它。

But then, they're also extending some ICE program.

但隨後，他們也擴展了一些 ICE 計畫。

So I think like last year, you talked about a $1.5 billion quoting funnel.

所以我認為就像去年一樣，您談到了 15 億美元的報價管道。

Is there any update on that activity?

該活動有任何更新嗎？

Joe, as I was saying earlier, we still have about $1.5 billion of new and incremental quoting opportunity today, heavily weighted towards electrification.

喬，正如我之前所說，我們今天仍然擁有約 15 億美元的新增量報價機會，其中主要是電氣化。

But as the customers are sorting out that LRPP, it may adjust the timing of some of what we're porting out as far as the launch cadence of that.

但隨著客戶整理 LRPP，它可能會調整我們正在移植的一些內容的時間（就其發布節奏而言）。

But also, as I mentioned, it may be -- those launches will most likely be later in the decade versus mid-decade.

但正如我所提到的，這些發布很可能會在本世紀末而不是本世紀中期進行。

That's really what we see right now.

這確實是我們現在所看到的。

Okay.

好的。

And then, Chris, I heard an answer to -- when you're answering John's question before, about the attrition in the outer years, you talked about that continual plan for $100 million to $200 million.

然後，克里斯，我聽到了一個答案——當你之前回答約翰的問題時，關於外部幾年的人員流失，你談到了 1 億至 2 億美元的持續計劃。

I guess conceptually, why -- if your customers are extending programs, why wouldn't it be at a lower level if they're extending some of the current programs they're on?

我想從概念上講，為什麼 - 如果您的客戶正在擴展程序，如果他們正在擴展他們正在使用的一些當前程序，為什麼它不會處於較低的水平？

Yes.

是的。

So I mean the – great question, $100 million to $200 million, I mean, we have tens of hundreds of different programs we have through our entire global franchise of sales.

所以我的意思是——很好的問題，1 億到 2 億美元，我的意思是，我們透過整個全球銷售特許經營擁有數以萬計的不同計劃。

Some are smaller engine programs, or transmission programs, or driveline programs.

有些是較小的引擎項目、變速箱項目或傳動系統項目。

Occasionally, they’ll cease production of a vehicle, like, for example, you saw Stellantis cease production of the Jeep Cherokee last year.

有時，他們會停止生產某種車輛，例如，您去年看到 Stellantis 停止生產吉普切諾基。

So those are types of things that will fall into the attrition bucket.

所以這些都是會被歸類在消耗桶的東西。

If they’re extending programs, you have a chance to mitigate some of that attrition as higher, right?

如果他們延長計劃，您就有機會減少部分人員流失，對嗎？

So then maybe they’ll continue engine production on certain size engines for an extended period of time, which bodes very well to our component business.

因此，也許他們將在較長一段時間內繼續生產某些尺寸的發動機，這對我們的零件業務來說是個好兆頭。

So it is a little bit of a mix of a lot of factors.

所以這是很多因素的混合。

But you do have vehicle nameplates that, from time to time, or sub-transmissions or sub engines that simply cease production and replaced with something else.

但你確實有車輛銘牌，有時，或者子變速器或子引擎只是停止生產並用其他東西替換。

Again, Joe, I think it just goes back to, what are the OEMs going to do with their long-range product plans?

喬，我想這又回到了原始設備製造商將如何處理他們的長期產品計劃？

As Chris indicated, they've already made some decisions to cancel certain programs or stop manufacturing programs.

正如克里斯指出的那樣，他們已經做出了一些決定，取消某些計劃或停止製造計劃。

We're going to feel that spike or that impact periodically.

我們會定期感受到這種高峰或影響。

But historically, we're going to be in that $100 million to $150 million in normal attrition.

但從歷史上看，我們的正常損耗將達到 1 億至 1.5 億美元。

And then when you get into some of the higher years, it can be $200 million, $200 million plus, right?

然後當你進入一些更高年級時，它可能是 2 億美元，2 億美元以上，對吧？

But it's been pretty consistent in that $100 million to $200 million range, and we've been able to offset that.

但在 1 億到 2 億美元的範圍內，它是相當一致的，我們已經能夠抵消這一點。

Obviously, with this air pocket that I'm talking about, hopefully, some of the extensions of these programs that we're starting to see will cover up some of the attrition that's there.

顯然，有了我正在談論的這個氣穴，希望我們開始看到的這些計劃的一些擴展能夠掩蓋其中的一些消耗。

But the big thing for us is to make sure that we can demonstrate incremental and profitable growth going forward.

但對我們來說最重要的是確保我們能夠展示未來的增量和獲利成長。

And most of that that we're working on right now is electrification-based, which is going to be the latter part of the decade.

我們現在正在進行的大部分工作都是基於電氣化的，這將是本十年的後半段。

So that's that air pocket that we talked about between now and then, but it can be filled with incremental volume as the production ramps up and the desire ramps up and inventory gets to desired levels.

這就是我們從現在到那時討論的那個氣穴，但隨著產量的增加、需求的增加以及庫存達到所需的水平，它可以被增量填充。

Yes.

是的。

So just like big picture, generally speaking, yes to your underlying thesis, Joe. If products are extended, that's generally good for us.

所以就像大局一樣，一般來說，你的基本論點是肯定的，喬。如果產品擴展，這通常對我們有利。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks for the color.

謝謝你的顏色。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝，喬。

Tom Narayan, RBC.

湯姆·納拉揚，加拿大皇家銀行。

So there was a large European OEM who was saying that they expected in 2024, they would have to make meaningful concessions to the suppliers because of cutting production on EVs.

因此，有一家大型歐洲 OEM 表示，他們預計到 2024 年，由於削減電動車產量，他們將不得不向供應商做出有意義的讓步。

They just have to make those agreements whole.

他們只需要完善這些協議。

Just curious if this is something you guys anticipate there's some choppiness of orders moving around that the contracts you guys have with your OEM customers, such that they would have to compensate you guys if they're shutting down particular EV schedules, et cetera?

只是好奇這是否是你們預計的事情，你們與 OEM 客戶簽訂的合約中的訂單會出現一些波動，這樣，如果他們關閉特定的電動車時間表，等等，他們就必須補償你們？

Well, clearly, anytime you have a program adjustment, whether it's ICE or hybrid or EV, and investments are being made and volumes aren't being realized or programs are being delayed, there's commercial discussions that need to take place.

嗯，很明顯，任何時候你有一個項目調整，無論是內燃機、混合動力還是電動汽車，並且正在進行投資但產量沒有實現或項目被推遲，都需要進行商業討論。

Those are taking place with all the OEMs or all the suppliers that have made investments to support the OEMs, especially as they're adjusting some of those timings.

這些都是與所有原始設備製造商或所有為支援原始設備製造商進行投資的供應商一起進行的，特別是當他們正在調整其中一些時間表時。

AAM is not excluded from those discussions.

AAM 並未被排除在這些討論之外。

So we're in discussion with our different OEMs, just trying to better understand their long-range product plans, understand the timing and the rescoping of the programs, and then understanding the impact that it may have on the business cases and the plans that we put together.

因此，我們正在與不同的 OEM 進行討論，只是試圖更好地了解他們的長期產品計劃，了解計劃的時間安排和範圍重新劃分，然後了解它可能對業務案例和計劃產生的影響。我們放在一起。

Obviously, where we can redeploy assets if need be or reallocate those assets to other business, we'll do that between ICE, hybrid, and EV.

顯然，如果需要的話，我們可以重新部署資產或將這些資產重新分配給其他業務，我們將在內燃機、混合動力和電動車之間做到這一點。

But at the same time, where there's sunk investment in regards to some of the R&D activity that's taking place, we'll need to make sure we're recovering appropriately.

但同時，如果一些正在進行的研發活動出現投資沉沒，我們需要確保我們能夠適當地恢復。

So that's what I'd say, I guess.

我想這就是我想說的話。

Okay.

好的。

And then a lot of folks are thinking that 2024 could be a year of M&A in the auto space.

然後很多人認為 2024 年可能是汽車領域併購的一年。

You have volumes not necessarily growing that much, but counter to that would be obviously high financing costs.

你的交易量不一定會成長那麼多，但與此相反的是，融資成本顯然會很高。

You guys do have a little bit of leverage, but just curious as to your guys' appetite to where it's being maybe acquisitive in '24?

你們確實有一點影響力，但只是好奇你們的胃口在 24 世紀可能會在哪裡變得貪婪？

Well, we’ve said all along that we want to be a consolidator, and we actually started that activity back in 2017 with the acquisition of MPG.

嗯，我們一直說我們想成為一家整合商，實際上我們早在 2017 年收購 MPG 時就開始了這項活動。

We’ve also done some other tactical acquisitions since that time, the latest one being the Tekfor acquisition that we did last year.

從那時起，我們也進行了一些其他戰術性收購，最新的一次是我們去年收購的 Tekfor。

We’ll continue to look at, what I’ll call tactical M&A right now that we can operate within our current capital structure.

我們將繼續關注我現在所說的戰術併購，以便我們能夠在當前的資本結構內運作。

But if there's other opportunities that make business sense for us that ultimately strengthen the company going forward and position us as an organization going forward, we'll look at those opportunities as well.

但如果還有其他對我們具有商業意義的機會，最終能夠增強公司的發展能力，並使我們成為一個不斷發展的組織，我們也會考慮這些機會。

And we got a fiduciary responsibility to do those types of things, so we'll definitely keep M&A on our radar screen.

我們有信託責任去做這些類型的事情，所以我們肯定會把併購放在我們的雷達螢幕上。

Okay.

好的。

Now if I could sneak one final one, sorry, David.

現在，如果我能偷偷拍最後一張，對不起，大衛。

Chinese OEMs potentially entering Europe and obviously, Europe but then maybe even producing locally in the US.

中國的原始設備製造商可能會進入歐洲，顯然是歐洲，但隨後甚至可能在美國本地生產。

Just curious as to how you guys think about this as something -- a customer subset that maybe you're underexposed to.

只是好奇你們如何看待這個問題——可能是你們接觸不足的客戶子集。

Could you easily pivot to more Chinese OEM exposure, should this happen?

如果發生這種情況，您能否輕鬆轉向更多的中國 OEM 業務？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Well, the good news is we're growing our China business, especially on the electrification and the PHEV side of the business.

好消息是我們正在發展中國業務，尤其是電氣化和插電式混合動力業務方面。

They're becoming global OEMs.

他們正在成為全球原始設備製造商。

They're clearly on the offensive now, where before, they were looking at just satisfying their demand within the country of China.

他們現在顯然處於攻勢，而之前他們只想滿足中國境內的需求。

But they're obviously attacking and positioning themselves in Europe very aggressively right now, and Mexico.

但他們現在顯然正在歐洲和墨西哥非常積極地進攻和定位自己。

And there's no doubt, it's just a matter of time before they come strong to the US.

毫無疑問，他們在美國的強勢只是時間問題。

But obviously, I think a lot of countries are going to have to look at what mechanisms that they need to put into place to protect some of their businesses, meaning the automotive businesses, whether that’s tariffs or other types of things to level the playing field.

但顯然，我認為許多國家將不得不考慮需要採取哪些機制來保護其某些業務，即汽車業務，無論是關稅還是其他類型的東西來平衡比賽場地。

But ultimately, it means game on.

但最終，這意味著比賽開始。

And a low-cost producer that can produce the quality product that the consumer desires is going to win in the long run.

從長遠來看，能夠生產消費者所需的優質產品的低成本生產商將會獲勝。

So it’s just going to elevate the game of every one of the OEMs.

因此，這只會提升每個原始設備製造商的競爭力。

And technology will be a differentiator as we go forward, but the Chinese have vertically integrated the BEV side of the business.

隨著我們的前進，科技將成為一個差異化因素，但中國人已經垂直整合了純電動車方面的業務。

But I also think it’s important to point out a couple of things is, I don’t think BEVs are going to make up 100% of volume on a global basis any time soon.

但我還認為需要指出的一點是，我認為純電動車短期內不會佔全球銷量的 100%。

So ICE and hybrid and even hydrogen will play a meaningful role going forward.

因此，內燃機和混合動力，甚至氫氣將在未來發揮有意義的作用。

I also think in Europe, the luxury cars are pretty well-dominated by the Europeans, so that’s a tough market to crack because of the performance that goes with that.

我還認為，在歐洲，豪華車完全由歐洲人主導，因此，由於與之相伴的性能，這是一個很難攻克的市場。

And that same thing holds true here in North America from a truck and SUV and crossover standpoint, but especially truck and SUV, there's very loyal buyers in those areas.

從卡車、SUV 和跨界車的角度來看，同樣的情況在北美也是如此，尤其是卡車和 SUV，這些地區有非常忠實的買家。

So they're new entrants, a growing entrant, and they're going to gain market share.

所以他們是新進入者，一個成長中的進入者，他們將獲得市場份額。

But at the same time, it's an opportunity for companies like us and other suppliers.

但同時，這對像我們這樣的公司和其他供應商來說也是一個機會。

Got it.

知道了。

Thanks so much, guys.

非常感謝，夥計們。

Jamie, I think that was our last question.

傑米，我想這是我們的最後一個問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, that was our last question.

女士們先生們，這是我們的最後一個問題。

I'd like to turn the floor back over to you, Mr. Lim, for any closing remarks.

林先生，我想請您做結束語。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, and we thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM.

謝謝，我們感謝所有參與本次電話會議的人，並感謝您對 AAM 的興趣。

We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future.

我們當然期待將來與您交談。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that will conclude today's conference call and presentation.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議和演講到此結束。

We do thank you for joining.

我們非常感謝您的加入。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。