American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. My name is Jamie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded.

大家，早安。我叫傑米，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。此時，我歡迎大家參加 American Axle & Manufacturing 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的電話會議正在錄音。

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr. David Lim, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

現在，我想請投資者關係主管 David Lim 先生發言。請繼續，林先生。

Great. Thank you, and good morning from Detroit. I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's third quarter earnings call.

偉大的。謝謝你，底特律早安。我謹歡迎每一位參加 AAM 第三季財報電話會議的人。

Earlier this morning, we released our third quarter of 2023 earnings announcement. You can access this announcement on the Investor Relations page of our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services. You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the investor page of our website as well. To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1 (877) 344-7529, replay access code 5629227. This replay will be available through November 10.

今天早些時候，我們發布了 2023 年第三季財報公告。您可以在我們網站 www.aam.com 的投資者關係頁面以及透過美通社服務取得本公告。您也可以在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到本次電話會議的補充幻燈片。若要收聽此通話的重播，您可以撥打 1 (877) 344-7529，重播接入碼 5629227。此重播將持續到 11 月 10 日。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, which cannot be predicted or quantified which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed. For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包含受風險和不確定性影響的評論和前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性無法預測或量化，可能導致未來的活動和經營結果出現重大差異從那些討論過的。如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

Also during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures as well as the reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information is available on our website.

此外，在這次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非 GAAP 衡量標準的資訊以及這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與 GAAP 財務資訊的調整表可在我們的網站上取得。

With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dauch.

接下來，讓我將此事轉交給 AAM 董事長兼執行長 David Dauch。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the third quarter of 2023. With me on the call today is Chris May, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。感謝您今天加入我們討論 AAM 2023 年第三季的財務業績。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Chris May。

To begin my comments, I'll review the highlights of our third quarter financial performance. I will then provide deeper insights into our operating performance issues and what we are doing to bring AAM back to our traditional standards. And then next, I'll touch on significant business development news in the quarter as we continue to make excellent strides in winning both electrification and ICE programs. Our strong product portfolio of both verticals and allows us to fully support OEM driveline needs across multiple platforms and technologies. After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we'll open up the call for any questions that you all may have.

首先，我將回顧我們第三季財務表現的亮點。然後，我將更深入地了解我們的營運績效問題以及我們正在採取哪些措施使 AAM 恢復到我們的傳統標準。接下來，我將談談本季的重大業務發展新聞，因為我們在贏得電氣化和 ICE 專案方面繼續取得了巨大進步。我們強大的垂直產品組合使我們能夠在多個平台和技術中全面支援 OEM 傳動系統需求。在克里斯詳細介紹我們的財務表現後，我們將開始電話詢問大家可能有的任何問題。

So let's begin. AAM's third quarter of 2023 sales were $1.55 billion. AAM sales were negatively impacted by continued customer production volatility stemming from supply chain challenges, including lack of labor availability and delivery constraints within the supply base. From AAM's perspective, the customer production volatility in the third quarter was significantly greater versus the second quarter. This was further exacerbated by the UAW work stoppage that began in the middle of September.

那麼就讓我們開始吧。 AAM 2023 年第三季的銷售額為 15.5 億美元。 AAM 的銷售受到供應鏈挑戰（包括供應基地內缺乏勞動力和交付限制）導致的客戶生產持續波動的負面影響。從 AAM 的角度來看，第三季的客戶生產波動性明顯大於第二季。 9 月中旬開始的 UAW 停工進一步加劇了這種情況。

From a profitability perspective, AAM's adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was $157 million or 10.1% of sales. The margin performance reflects the negative impact of customer production volatility, including the UAW work stoppage, elevated input costs, continued operational challenges at certain AAM plants that are having an outsized influence on profitability and a warranty charge in the quarter associated with the casting component.

從獲利能力的角度來看，AAM 第三季調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.57 億美元，佔銷售額的 10.1%。利潤率表現反映了客戶生產波動的負面影響，包括 UAW 停工、投入成本上升、某些 AAM 工廠持續面臨的營運挑戰（這些工廠對盈利能力產生了巨大影響）以及與鑄造部件相關的季度保固費用。

Compounding our matters in the third quarter economic recoveries have not been reached final -- have not reached final resolution in part because of the distraction of the UAW work stoppage with our top 3 customers, but discussions are very active in the fourth quarter. Taken as a whole, this performance is not up to AAM standards, and Chris will provide more details about our financial performance in a few moments.

使第三季的問題更加複雜的是，經濟復甦尚未達成最終解決方案，部分原因是 UAW 停工分散了我們與我們三大客戶的注意力，但第四季度的討論非常活躍。總體而言，這項業績未達到 AAM 標準，Chris 稍後將提供有關我們財務表現的更多詳細資訊。

AAM's adjusted earnings per share in the third quarter of 2023 was a loss of $0.11 per share. AAM generated a strong positive cash flow in the quarter. AAM's adjusted free cash flow was very strong at nearly $136 million in the third quarter compared to $46 million last year.

AAM 2023 年第三季調整後每股盈餘為每股虧損 0.11 美元。 AAM 在本季產生了強勁的正現金流。第三季 AAM 調整後自由現金流非常強勁，接近 1.36 億美元，去年為 4,600 萬美元。

On Slide 4 of our presentation deck, we have outlined headwinds that we have faced all year; a few stem from the current operating environment and others are AAM internal. This is very disappointing for me and my management team as we pride ourselves on our operational excellence and our performance execution.

在簡報的幻燈片 4 中，我們概述了我們全年面臨的不利因素；其中一些源自於目前的操作環境，其他則來自 AAM 內部。這對我和我的管理團隊來說非常令人失望，因為我們為我們的卓越營運和績效執行感到自豪。

As we mentioned earlier this year, we continue to experience operational challenges at several of our plants, especially in the metal forming business unit. We are driving for the resolution of a majority of these issues as we exit 2023 and the remainder shortly thereafter. Internally, the combination of labor availability, plant throughput challenges and capacity constraints were major contributors to the cost headwinds this quarter. Additional resources have certainly been dispatched to address these operational issues.

正如我們今年稍早提到的，我們的幾家工廠繼續面臨營運挑戰，特別是在金屬成型業務部門。我們正在努力解決 2023 年結束時的大部分問題以及不久之後的其餘問題。在內部，勞動力可用性、工廠吞吐量挑戰和產能限制的組合是本季成本逆風的主要原因。當然已經派遣了額外的資源來解決這些營運問題。

On a brighter note, our team has been doing a marvelous job securing new business with our innovative products and new customers. So looking at Page 5 of our presentation deck, the e-Beam momentum continues for our company here at AAM. You may recall in the first quarter, we announced a significant e-Beam Axle award with Stellantis. That was followed up in the second quarter with additional award from an undisclosed Asian OEM for the China market.

更光明的一面是，我們的團隊一直在透過我們的創新產品和新客戶確保新業務方面做得非常出色。因此，看看我們簡報的第 5 頁，我們公司在 AAM 的電子束勢頭仍在繼續。您可能還記得在第一季度，我們宣布了與 Stellantis 的一項重要的 e-Beam Axle 獎項。隨後第二季度，一家未公開的亞洲 OEM 又為中國市場授予了額外獎項。

Today, we're very happy to announce 2 additional e-Beam awards, 1 from Skywell Auto, supporting an electric van program with a 2-in-1 e-Beam axle in China. This program is slated to launch in 2024. The other win is with Mahindra in India. AAM will supply e-Beam axles for Mahindra's 2.5 ton light electric trucks scheduled for launch in 2025.

今天，我們非常高興地宣布另外 2 個 e-Beam 獎項，其中 1 個來自 Skywell Auto，支持中國採用二合一 e-Beam 車軸的電動貨車項目。該計劃預計於 2024 年啟動。另一場勝利是與印度 Mahindra 合作。 AAM 將為 Mahindra 計劃於 2025 年推出的 2.5 噸輕型電動卡車供應 e-Beam 車軸。

Furthermore, we continue to win programs with our ICE business. AAM will provide PTUs and RDMs for multiple Jetour, which is a brand of Chery vehicle programs beginning in 2024. In addition, AAM will also supply independent front axles for a number of FAW plug-in hybrid programs in China beginning in 2025. Today's announcements reinforce AAM's broad EV and ICE product portfolio, our capabilities, our technology and our approach to the market.

此外，我們繼續透過 ICE 業務贏得專案。 AAM 將從 2024 年開始為奇瑞旗下的多個品牌捷途汽車專案提供 PTU 和 RDM。此外，AAM 也將從 2025 年開始為中國一汽的多個插電式混合動力專案提供獨立前軸。加強AAM廣泛的EV 和ICE 產品組合、我們的能力、我們的技術以及我們的市場策略。

From a recognition standpoint, we are also very excited to share that AAM has been named a 2023 Automotive News PACEpilot award finalist for our innovative electric beam axle with high-speed motor and integrated inverter. Our technology can be scaled to cover Class 1 trucks and vans through Class 6 commercial vehicles. Since 2020, AAM has received 5 Automotive News PACE and PACEpilot awards demonstrating the company's innovation leadership in electrification.

從認可的角度來看，我們也非常高興地告訴大家，AAM 憑藉我們配備高速馬達和集成逆變器的創新電動樑橋入圍 2023 年《汽車新聞》PACEpilot 獎決賽。我們的技術可以擴展到覆蓋 1 級卡車和貨車到 6 級商用車。自 2020 年以來，AAM 已獲得 5 項《汽車新聞》PACE 和 PACEpilot 獎項，彰顯了公司在電氣化領域的創新領導力。

To conclude my opening remarks, let's talk about our updated guidance, and please refer to Slide 6 of our presentation deck. AAM is now targeting sales of $6 billion to $6.1 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $660 million to $685 million, adjusted free cash flow of approximately $200 million to $215 million. And according to S&P, 2023 North American production approximates 15.2 million units. However, as you all know, our sales performance is more dependent on production of certain significant platforms with specific customers.

在結束我的開場白之前，我們來談談我們更新的指南，請參閱我們簡報的幻燈片 6。 AAM 目前的目標銷售額為 60 億至 61 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 約為 6.6 億至 6.85 億美元，調整後自由現金流約為 2 億至 2.15 億美元。根據標準普爾的數據，2023 年北美產量約 1,520 萬台。然而，眾所周知，我們的銷售業績更取決於針對特定客戶的某些重要平台的生產。

Related to the UAW work stoppage, our guidance assumes the resumption of production by the first week of November and an overall work stoppage impact of approximately $70 million to $100 million in sales and $25 million to $40 million in adjusted EBITDA.

與 UAW 停工相關，我們的指導假設 11 月第一週恢復生產，停工對銷售額的整體影響約為 7,000 萬至 1 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 約為 2,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元。

I assure you that AAM's management team continues to work with a strong resolve to navigate these dynamic and challenging times. In addition, AAM will continue to drive our efforts towards securing our legacy business, generating strong free cash flow, strengthening our balance sheet, advance our electrification portfolio and position AAM for profitable growth.

我向您保證，AAM 的管理團隊將繼續以堅定的決心努力應對這個充滿活力且充滿挑戰的時代。此外，AAM 將繼續努力確保我們的傳統業務，產生強勁的自由現金流，加強我們的資產負債表，推進我們的電氣化產品組合，並使 AAM 實現盈利增長。

Let me now turn the call over to our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May. Chris?

現在讓我將電話轉給我們的執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯梅。克里斯？

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. I will cover the financial details of our third quarter with you today. I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。今天我將向您介紹我們第三季的財務細節。我還將參考收益幻燈片，作為我準備好的評論的一部分。

So let's go ahead and begin with sales. In the third quarter of 2023, AAM sales were $1.55 billion compared to $1.54 billion in the third quarter of 2022. Slide 8 shows a walk of third quarter 2022 sales to third quarter 2023 sales. Positive volume mix and other was $55 million, driven in large part due to our backlog. The UAW work stoppage had a $15 million negative impact to sales in the quarter. And lastly, metal market pass-throughs and FX lowered net sales by approximately $19 million with metal lower and FX higher.

那麼就讓我們從銷售開始吧。 2023 年第三季度，AAM 銷售額為 15.5 億美元，而 2022 年第三季度為 15.4 億美元。投影片 8 顯示了 2022 年第三季銷售額到 2023 年第三季銷售額的變化。正銷量組合和其他收入為 5500 萬美元，這在很大程度上是由於我們的積壓所致。 UAW 停工對該季度的銷售額造成了 1,500 萬美元的負面影響。最後，金屬市場轉手和外匯導致淨銷售額減少約 1,900 萬美元，其中金屬價格較低，外匯價格較高。

Overall, while North American production was up close to 9% year-over-year in the quarter, in total, our primary full-sized truck platforms were down approximately 4%. And in the third quarter, we experienced extended downtime at some of our customers' full-size truck plants greater than what we experienced in prior quarters.

總體而言，雖然本季北美產量年增近 9%，但我們的主要全尺寸卡車平台整體下降了約 4%。在第三季度，我們的一些客戶的全尺寸卡車工廠的停機時間比前幾個季度更長。

Now let's move on to profitability. Gross profit was $131 million in the third quarter of 2023 as compared to $177 million in the third quarter of 2022. Adjusted EBITDA was $156.8 million in the third quarter of 2023 versus $198.4 million last year.

現在讓我們轉向獲利能力。 2023 年第三季的毛利為 1.31 億美元，而 2022 年第三季為 1.77 億美元。2023 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.568 億美元，去年為 1.984 億美元。

You can see the year-over-year walk down of adjusted EBITDA on Slide 9. In the quarter, volume, mix and other added $15 million of adjusted EBITDA, reflecting a 27% contribution margin on AAM's higher sales. The UAW work stoppage had a $4 million impact to the quarter. In addition, we experienced a warranty charge of $13 million associated with the casting component from our metal forming business unit.

您可以在幻燈片9 上看到調整後EBITDA 的同比下降。本季度，銷售、組合和其他因素增加了1500 萬美元的調整後EBITDA，反映了AAM 較高銷售額帶來的27% 的貢獻率。 UAW 停工對該季度造成了 400 萬美元的影響。此外，我們的金屬成型業務部門還收取了 1,300 萬美元的與鑄造零件相關的保固費用。

The combination of net inflation, performance, launch costs and other impacted EBITDA by approximately $30 million in the quarter. The primary drivers behind this bucket were operational inefficiencies at certain underperforming plants and net year-over-year inflation in several of our cost areas. Collectively, these drivers caused excessive labor costs that represented approximately half of this total, net inflation of about 20% to 30% of this total and excessive scrap and premium freight for most of the remainder. All of these issues are addressable in the manner in which David mentioned. You will also note that metal market and FX was lower year-over-year. Metals were favorable and FX was negative, principally driven by the strength of the Mexican peso.

淨通膨、業績、啟動成本和其他因素綜合影響本季 EBITDA 約 3,000 萬美元。這個問題背後的主要驅動因素是某些表現不佳的工廠運作效率低下，以及我們幾個成本領域的年比淨通膨。總的來說，這些驅動因素導致勞動成本過高，約佔總成本的一半，淨通貨膨脹約佔總成本的 20% 至 30%，而其餘大部分則造成廢品和溢價運費過高。所有這些問題都可以按照大衛提到的方式解決。您還會注意到，金屬市場和外匯較去年同期下降。金屬價格有利，外匯市場不利，主要是受到墨西哥比索走強的推動。

Let me now cover SG&A. SG&A expense, including R&D, in the third quarter of 2023 was $81.8 million or 5.3% of sales. This compares to $85.7 million or 5.6% of sales in the third quarter of 2022. AAM's R&D spending in the third quarter of 2023 was approximately $35 million.

現在讓我介紹一下 SG&A。 2023 年第三季的 SG&A 費用（包括研發）為 8,180 萬美元，佔銷售額的 5.3%。相較之下，2022 年第三季的銷售額為 8,570 萬美元，佔銷售額的 5.6%。AAM 2023 年第三季的研發支出約為 3,500 萬美元。

As we indicated entering into 2023, R&D will trend in the $35 million to $40 million range per quarter as we continue to invest in our electric drive technology, capitalizing on the growing number of electrification opportunities that are before us and launching new programs.

正如我們所指出的，進入2023 年，隨著我們繼續投資於電力驅動技術、利用擺在我們面前的越來越多的電氣化機會並推出新項目，研發費用將趨於每季3500 萬至4000 萬美元。

Let's move on to interest and taxes. Net interest expense was $43.7 million in the third quarter of 2023 compared to $39.4 million in the third quarter of 2022. Although our total debt is lower at quarter end on a year-over-year basis, the rising rate environment drove the interest expense increase.

讓我們繼續討論利息和稅收。 2023 年第三季的淨利息支出為 4,370 萬美元，而 2022 年第三季為 3,940 萬美元。儘管我們季末的總債務同比較低，但利率上升的環境推動了利息支出的增加。

In the third quarter of 2023, our income tax was a $2 million benefit as compared to a benefit of $5.7 million in the third quarter of 2022. For 2023, we expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be elevated at approximately minus 100% at the midpoint of our guidance range. This very unusual looking rate is driven by the recording of a valuation allowance that we have discussed in previous calls. We also expect cash taxes of approximately $55 million to $60 million this year.

2023 年第三季度，我們的所得稅效益為 200 萬美元，而 2022 年第三季的所得稅效益為 570 萬美元。對於 2023 年，我們預計調整後的有效稅率將提高至約 -100%。我們指導範圍的中點。這種看起來非常不尋常的利率是由我們在之前的電話會議中討論過的估值津貼的記錄所驅動的。我們也預計今年的現金稅約為 5,500 萬至 6,000 萬美元。

Taking all this into account, our GAAP net income was a loss of $17.4 million or $0.15 per share in the third quarter of 2023 compared to a net income of $26.5 million or $0.22 per share in the third quarter of 2022. Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release, was a loss of $0.11 per share in the third quarter of 2023 compared to earnings of $0.27 per share in the third quarter of 2022.

考慮到所有這些因素，我們2023 年第三季的GAAP 淨利潤為虧損1,740 萬美元，即每股0.15 美元，而2022 年第三季的淨利潤為2,650 萬美元，即每股0.22 美元。調整後每股收益，排除我們收益新聞稿中提到的項目的影響，2023 年第三季每股虧損 0.11 美元，而 2022 年第三季每股收益為 0.27 美元。

Let's now move to cash flow and the balance sheet. Net cash provided by operating activities for the third quarter of 2023 was $178.3 million. Capital expenditures net of proceeds from the sale of property, plant and equipment for the third quarter of 2023 were $47.5 million.

現在讓我們轉向現金流和資產負債表。 2023年第三季經營活動提供的淨現金為1.783億美元。 2023 年第三季扣除出售房產、廠房及設備收益後的資本支出為 4,750 萬美元。

Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the third quarter of 2023 were $5 million. Reflecting the impact of these activities, AAM generated adjusted free cash flow of $135.8 million in the quarter. This is one of our top-performing cash flow quarters over the last several years.

2023 年第三季重組和收購相關活動的現金支付為 500 萬美元。反映出這些活動的影響，AAM 在本季產生了 1.358 億美元的調整後自由現金流。這是過去幾年我們現金流表現最好的季度之一。

From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the quarter with net debt of $2.2 billion and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $682 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 3.3x at September 30.

從債務槓桿角度來看，本季末我們的淨負債為 22 億美元，LTM 調整後 EBITDA 為 6.82 億美元，計算截至 9 月 30 日的淨槓桿率為 3.3 倍。

As for the rest of the year, Slide 6 shows our full year guidance. Our 2023 financial targets have been updated to reflect our estimate that the UAW work stoppage we'll have on our operations. For sales, we are targeting a range of $6 billion to $6.1 billion for 2023. The sales target is based upon our production assumptions for our key programs, and we estimate that General Motors large truck production will be at 1.3 million to 1.35 million units this year, roughly flattish at the midpoint year-over-year.

至於今年剩餘時間，幻燈片 6 顯示了我們的全年指導。我們已更新 2023 年財務目標，以反映我們對 UAW 停工對我們營運造成的影響的估計。對於銷售，我們的目標是 2023 年 60 億至 61 億美元。銷售目標基於我們對關鍵項目的產量假設，我們估計通用汽車今年大型卡車的產量將為 130 萬至 135 萬輛。年中點大致持平。

Our guidance also assumes that production resumes and begins to ramp up during the first week of November on the UAW work stoppage. We estimate that the impact of the work stoppage will reduce sales by $70 million to $100 million and adjusted EBITDA by $25 million to $40 million. Our adjusted EBITDA target is $660 million to $685 million, and our adjusted free cash flow target is $200 million to $215 million. This guidance reflects the impact of the UAW work stoppage, our third quarter performance and warranty charge and tracks with our performance overview on Slide 4.

我們的指導還假設 UAW 停工期間生產將在 11 月第一周恢復並開始增加。我們估計停工的影響將導致銷售額減少 7,000 萬至 1 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 減少 2,500 萬至 4,000 萬美元。我們調整後的 EBITDA 目標為 6.6 億至 6.85 億美元，調整後的自由現金流目標為 2 億至 2.15 億美元。本指南反映了 UAW 停工、我們第三季業績和保固費用的影響，並追蹤投影片 4 上的業績概述。

Although we are not providing formal 2024 guidance, we would like to provide a number of initial guideposts or factors to consider. On the cost side, we expect our underperforming plans to positively contribute by early next year. The higher warranty item included in adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of 2023 should not repeat next year, and we will lap the UAW work stoppage. In addition, less production volatility should convert to better operational efficiencies and reduced premium costs.

儘管我們沒有提供正式的 2024 年指導，但我們希望提供一些初步指南或需要考慮的因素。在成本方面，我們預計表現不佳的計劃將在明年初做出積極貢獻。 2023 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 中包含的較高保固項目明年不應再出現，我們將接受 UAW 停工。此外，較小的生產波動應轉化為更好的營運效率和降低的溢價成本。

For the top line, the industry continues to be positioned for production growth year-over-year, the magnitude of which will be better served once the dust finally settles with production restarts post the UAW work stoppage.

就營收而言，該行業的產量將繼續實現同比增長，一旦 UAW 停工後生產重新開始，塵埃落定，產量增長的幅度將得到更好的體現。

As David mentioned, we are focused on operational improvements as these inefficiencies that we are experiencing are very flexible, making progress with our commercial recovery discussions with our customers; and lastly, securing both prospective ICE and EV business.

正如大衛所提到的，我們專注於營運改進，因為我們遇到的這些低效率問題非常靈活，與客戶的商業恢復討論取得了進展；最後，確保未來的內燃機和電動車業務。

Thank you for your time and participation on the call today. I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David, so we can start Q&A.

感謝您抽空參加今天的電話會議。我要在這裡停下來，將電話轉回給大衛，以便我們可以開始問答。

Thank you, Chris and David. We have reserved some time to take questions. I would ask that you please limit your questions to no more than two. So at this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions you may have.

謝謝你們，克里斯和大衛。我們預留了一些時間來回答問題。我想請您將問題限制在不超過兩個。因此，此時，請隨時回答您可能有的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

My question is on the operating inefficiencies. Of course, the UAW work stoppage was outside your ability to control. And so I see us called out separately on Slide 9. It would be great to get a sense though of the $30 million year-over-year negative bucket of EBITDA drivers related to net inflation performance, launch and other also on that side. How much of that may relate to these operating inefficiencies you're talking about? And then of that amount, how much would you say relates to factors truly outside your control similar to the UAW work stoppage such as customer -- volatility in customer production such as with the GM full-size truck program, et cetera, versus how much might maybe lie more within your organization, and so therefore, better within your ability to control? And what is your line of sight to mitigating those factors?

我的問題是營運效率低。當然，UAW停工是你無法控制的。因此，我看到我們在幻燈片 9 上分別被點名。儘管如此，如果能夠了解與淨通膨表現、發行和其他相關的 EBITDA 驅動因素同比 3000 萬美元的負值，那就太好了。其中有多少可能與您所說的營運效率低下有關？然後，在這個金額中，您認為有多少與真正超出您控制範圍的因素有關，類似於 UAW 停工，例如客戶生產的波動性，例如通用汽車全尺寸卡車計劃等，與多少有關可能更多地取決於您的組織，因此，更好地取決於您的控制能力？您對減輕這些因素有何看法？

Yes, this is Chris. I'll take the first part of that question. I'll dimensionalize that $30 million from a dollar perspective, and then I'll turn it over to David to give you some commentary related to some other elements of your question. So if you think about the $30 million on a year-over-year basis, about half of that is driven by labor inefficiencies inside, I would say, our own operations, mostly on the metal form business unit side of the house. It's premium labor cost over time, I would call it, excessive cost we had to pay for -- to bring third-party personnel to assist with maintenance and temporary workers as we were working through some of our challenges. Again, all fixable.

是的，這是克里斯。我將回答這個問題的第一部分。我將從美元的角度對這 3000 萬美元進行維度化，然後我會將其交給 David，以便為您提供一些與您的問題的其他一些要素相關的評論。因此，如果你考慮一下同比 3000 萬美元，其中大約一半是由我們自己的業務內部勞動力效率低下造成的，主要是在金屬成型業務部門方面。隨著時間的推移，我稱之為溢價勞動成本，我們必須支付過高的成本——在我們應對一些挑戰時聘請第三方人員來協助維護和臨時工。再說一次，一切都是可以修復的。

About 20% to 30% of this is net inflation. So we may have some wage inflation. We have some inflation from the supply base. That, of course, as you know, we're working through with some potential customer recoveries to offset some of that. And then the remaining piece is excessive scrap, premium freight associated with some of these inefficiencies that we have. And again, once we start to temper down some of those inefficiencies, these costs as well will start to dissipate in the near term. So that sort of dimensionalize it from a dollar perspective. I'll turn it over to David for some...

其中約 20% 到 30% 是淨通膨。所以我們可能會出現一些薪資上漲。我們的供應基礎出現了一些通膨。當然，正如您所知，我們正在努力恢復一些潛在的客戶，以抵消其中的一些影響。剩下的部分是過多的廢品和與我們效率低下相關的高額運費。再說一次，一旦我們開始減少一些低效率的問題，這些成本也將在短期內開始消失。因此，可以從美元的角度對其進行維度化。我會把它交給大衛一些......

Yes. Ryan, this is David. Chris touched on and you touched on the customer production downtime was much higher in the third quarter than it was in the second quarter. We made a choice to hold on to our people during that period of time. Similar situation with the UAW work stoppage. Because of the dynamic environment that we're operating in from a labor availability issue, we chose to hold on to our people and did some voluntary layoffs based on their own selection. That drove some premium cost for us that normally we wouldn't carry with us.

是的。瑞安，這是大衛。克里斯提到，您提到第三季的客戶生產停機時間比第二季要長得多。在那段時間裡，我們選擇留住我們的員工。與UAW停工情況類似。由於勞動力供應問題導致我們所處的動態環境，我們選擇保留我們的員工，並根據他們自己的選擇進行了一些自願裁員。這給我們帶來了一些通常我們不會隨身攜帶的溢價。

As Chris indicated, we also had some operational inefficiency and throughput issues at a couple of our metal forming plants, specifically related more towards the powder metal side. Again, that's largely driven because of labor availability issues. Once you have experienced workers that are leaving the business or have left the business, you bring new or temporary workers in. There's a learning curve to go through that drives excess of scrap and drives other premium costs in the business. But we've got our hands on it, and we're getting things stabilized. And as Chris indicated, we feel that we'll have most of that cleaned up by the end of the year, a little bit in the first quarter of next year.

正如克里斯指出的那樣，我們的幾個金屬成型工廠也存在一些營運效率低下和吞吐量問題，特別是與粉末金屬方面更多相關。同樣，這主要是由於勞動力供應問題造成的。一旦經驗豐富的員工離開企業或已經離開企業，你就會引進新員​​工或臨時員工。需要經歷一個學習曲線，這會導致廢品過多，並導致企業產生其他溢價成本。但我們已經掌握了它，事情正在穩定下來。正如克里斯所指出的，我們認為我們將在今年年底之前清理大部分內容，並在明年第一季清理掉一些。

We did in the quarter experienced some unexpected downtime at our Three Rivers facility in -- on the driveline side of our business. That issue has been addressed. It's resolved. It's behind us now. So our real focus is on the metal form side of our business and just continuing to fix and address the issues that are largely within our control. The biggest thing that we don't control in this whole thing is just customer schedules, and we experienced a lot of volatility in the third quarter.

我們在本季的三河工廠確實經歷了一些意外的停機——在我們業務的傳動系統方面。該問題已解決。已經解決了。現在它已經在我們身後了。因此，我們真正的重點是我們業務的金屬成型方面，並繼續修復和解決很大程度上在我們控制範圍內的問題。在整件事中，我們無法控制的最大的事情就是客戶時間表，我們在第三季經歷了巨大的波動。

Okay. Great. And then just lastly for me, sort of as a follow-up to some of those awards that are shown on Slide 5 and taking into account the pretty plentiful electrification awards, especially on the e-Beam axle side that you announced in conjunction with 1Q and 2Q earnings. Is there maybe any sort of preview that you might be able to provide for when you announced in January, your -- you've rolled the 2023 through '25 backlog to reflect 2024 through 2026. How that might track? Or is on pace to track, including relative to the 40% of backlog that was announced last January that related to electrification products.

好的。偉大的。最後對我來說，有點像幻燈片 5 中顯示的一些獎項的後續，並考慮到相當多的電氣化獎項，特別是在您與第一季一起宣布的電子束軸側和第二季度收益。當您在一月份宣布您已將 2023 年至 25 年的積壓工作滾動以反映 2024 年至 2026 年時，您是否可以提供任何類型的預覽。這可能會如何追蹤？ Or 正在穩步推進，包括去年 1 月宣布的 40% 的積壓訂單與電氣化產品相關。

Yes, Ryan, this is Chris. We're not providing any update to our backlog information. As you know, we customarily, will release that with our first quarter earnings call. But you've seen us through the course of the year, continue to win in various electric drive e-Beam axles, but also on some of our ICE business as well.

是的，瑞安，這是克里斯。我們不會提供任何積壓資訊的更新。如您所知，我們通常會在第一季財報電話會議上發布此消息。但您已經看到我們在這一年中繼續在各種電動驅動 e-Beam 車軸以及我們的一些 ICE 業務上取得勝利。

Ryan, this is David. I just expect it to be positively received.

瑞安，這是大衛。我只是希望它能得到正面的回應。

Our next question comes from John Murphy from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰·墨菲。

This is [Federico Morandi] on for John Murphy. My first question is, so the UAW strike has raised the labor cost at the OEMs and especially their internal axle plants. How does this translate to axle labor costs? Do you see any spillover effect?

這是約翰·墨菲的[費德里科·莫蘭迪]。我的第一個問題是，UAW罷工提高了整車廠的勞動成本，特別是他們的內軸工廠。這如何轉化為車軸勞動成本？您看到任何溢出效應嗎？

Well, I mean, clearly, we're not an OEM, and we don't pay OEM wages nor do any of the other Tier 1s that are out there. But at the same time, we have to be sensitive to the movement that's taking place in regards to some of the component operations within the OEMs. Obviously, we're all in the market, and there's a war on talent. And we got to be able to not only attract the talent but retain the talent. And obviously, this again put pressure on the whole industry, not just American Axle or the axle business.

嗯，我的意思是，很明顯，我們不是 OEM，我們不支付 OEM 工資，也不支付任何其他一級供應商的工資。但同時，我們必須對原始設備製造商內某些零件業務所發生的變化保持敏感。顯然，我們都在市場上，並且存在著人才之戰。我們不僅要能夠吸引人才，還要能夠留住人才。顯然，這再次給整個行業帶來了壓力，而不僅僅是美國車橋或車橋業務。

So we're constantly reviewing our wage and benefit structure. We're looking at that against the market and the competition to make sure that we can be at or above where the market is to make sure we have a stable workforce. We do expect that there will be downward pressure that will cascade down based on the result of the OEM negotiations, and we'll be prepared to address it appropriately. At the same time, we'll look at what other things that we can do to automate our factories as much as we possibly can to mitigate some of the labor complement if need be in order to maintain and address our cost structure.

因此，我們不斷審查我們的工資和福利結構。我們正在針對市場和競爭來考慮這一點，以確保我們能夠達到或高於市場水平，以確保我們擁有穩定的勞動力。我們確實預計，根據 OEM 談判的結果，將會出現下行壓力，我們將做好適當的應對。同時，我們將研究我們可以採取哪些其他措施來盡可能地實現工廠自動化，以在需要時減少一些勞動力補充，以維持和解決我們的成本結構。

And my second question is on electrification. So it's great to hear that you won more programs in Asia. And I was wondering, can you give us an estimate on how those programs are impacting margins? And given that in the last few weeks, everybody is talking about the slower demand in EVs. How does this impact your future programs or expectation on electric vehicles?

我的第二個問題是關於電氣化。因此，很高興聽到您在亞洲贏得了更多項目。我想知道，您能給我們估計一下這些計劃對利潤率的影響嗎？鑑於過去幾週，每個人都在談論電動車需求放緩。這對您未來的電動車計畫或期望有何影響？

Yes, this is Chris. Look, from a margin perspective, as you know, we don't typically discuss margin by specific programs and platforms. But as we look to source and win business in this space, we have certain financial hurdles that we are required to maintain and we want to keep that discipline. And as we go into these negotiations, that is on top of our mind as well. So maintaining a good, healthy financial profile is part of our quotation process. And whether it's electrification or ICE programs, that's the discipline we intend to keep. .

是的，這是克里斯。從保證金的角度來看，如您所知，我們通常不會透過特定的程序和平台來討論保證金。但當我們尋求在這個領域尋找並贏得業務時，我們需要維持某些財務障礙，並且我們希望保持這種紀律。當我們進行這些談判時，這也是我們最關心的問題。因此，保持良好、健康的財務狀況是我們報價流程的一部分。無論是電氣化還是 ICE 項目，這都是我們打算遵守的紀律。 。

Our next question comes from James Picariello from BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello。

Can you just provide some additional context on what the specific challenges were at the [Ashville] plant downtime in September on the driveline side, just to have some color or some context there.

您能否提供一些額外的背景信息，說明 9 月份 [阿什維爾] 工廠停機時傳動系統方面面臨的具體挑戰，只是為了提供一些顏色或背景信息。

I'm sorry, James, this is David. Are you asking about the Three Rivers and the downtime we experienced there?

對不起，詹姆斯，這是大衛。您是在詢問三河以及我們在那裡經歷的停機時間嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. It was a component-related matter, both internally as well as externally. And just really a throughput issue is really what it came down to. So FTQ and OEE-related matters. Like I said, those issues are both resolved as far as the outside supplier as well as our own internal capability. So we feel comfortable with where we are at this time.

好的。這是一個與元件相關的問題，無論是內部還是外部。歸根究底，吞吐量問題才是真正的問題。所以 FTQ 和 OEE 相關的問題。就像我說的，這些問題無論是外部供應商還是我們自己的內部能力都得到了解決。所以我們對目前的處境感到滿意。

Got it. And then just as we think about the production restart process post notification, once we get there, from your perspective, how well positioned is the supply chain to get volumes back going again? Maybe remind us what that time line look like from ratification to restart back in 2019, that would be helpful.

知道了。然後，正如我們在通知後考慮生產重啟流程一樣，一旦我們到達那裡，從您的角度來看，供應鏈的定位如何才能使產量再次恢復？也許提醒我們從批准到 2019 年重啟的時間線是什麼樣的，這會很有幫助。

Yes. I mean typically workers don't go back into the plants until their agreements are ratified. Obviously, that's different with these negotiations here, where the UAW has allowed the workers working with the OEMs to come back and start before the ratification is completed. Ratification will take several weeks. So by mid-November you can expect, probably before, to be done and that it will be staggered based on the resolution of timing between Stellantis and GM as well.

是的。我的意思是，在協議獲得批准之前，工人們通常不會回到工廠。顯然，這與這裡的談判不同，美國汽車工人聯合會允許與原始設備製造商合作的工人在批准完成之前回來開始工作。批准需要幾週時間。因此，到 11 月中旬，您可以預期（可能會更早）完成，並且也將根據 Stellantis 和 GM 之間的時間安排錯開。

But let's just say the balance of November. I think a lot of the supply base is especially being encouraged by the OEMs try to run as much as we possibly could during that downtime to address service parts, aftermarket and production-type related things. We've filled up a lot of the inventory. So we should all be in a fairly good shape for now.

但我們只說 11 月的餘額。我認為，許多供應基地特別受到原始設備製造商的鼓勵，他們試圖在停機期間盡可能地運行，以解決服務零件、售後市場和生產類型相關的問題。我們已經填滿了很多庫存。所以我們現在都應該處於相當好的狀態。

My biggest concern, quite honestly, is what others did with their labor, and can they attract the labor back, and then can they maintain continuity of supply as things get going. You'll see a ramp-up over the next 2 to 4 weeks to get these plants back at full rate, but we fully expect the OEMs to try to make up as many lost units as possible, which is going to put a lot of stress and a lot of demand on the overall supply chain, which is already fragile to begin with.

老實說，我最關心的是其他人如何處理他們的勞動力，他們能否吸引勞動力回來，然後隨著事情的進展他們能否保持供應的連續性。您將看到在接下來的 2 到 4 週內，這些工廠將全面恢復生產，但我們完全希望 OEM 廠商能夠盡可能彌補損失的設備，這將投入大量資金整個供應鏈面臨壓力和大量需求，而供應鏈本來就很脆弱。

And Our next question comes from Douglas Karson from Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的道格拉斯·卡森。

Great, guys. Thank you for the update here. Congrats on some of the EV business you've won. Can we maybe just turn to the balance sheet. I know that reduction has been in sharp focus, and you've done well reducing debt over the last few years. If you could just refresh us on where your targets lie and how 2024, '25 may look in net leverage ratio, which I believe is at 3.3% right now.

太棒了，夥計們。感謝您的更新。恭喜您贏得了一些電動車業務。我們可以看看資產負債表嗎？我知道減少債務一直是人們關注的焦點，過去幾年你們在減少債務方面做得很好。如果您能向我們介紹一下您的目標以及 2024 年 25 月淨槓桿率的情況，我認為目前淨槓桿率為 3.3%。

Doug, this is Chris. Yes, in terms of how we are addressing the balance sheet from a capital allocation part, I think we've been pretty consistent over the last several years that our strong free cash flow generation will be primarily used to pay down gross debt. We've continued to do that really over the last couple of years, each and every quarter. Obviously, in the third quarter, we took just a little bit of our foreign debt down, held cash coming into a UAW work stoppage situation. But obviously, paying our debt down will continue to be top of our mind.

道格，這是克里斯。是的，就我們如何從資本配置部分處理資產負債表而言，我認為過去幾年我們一直非常一致，我們強大的自由現金流產生將主要用於償還總債務。在過去的幾年裡，我們每季都在繼續這樣做。顯然，在第三季度，我們只減少了一點外債，並在 UAW 停工情況下持有現金。但顯然，償還債務仍將是我們的首要任務。

From a leverage perspective, our goal is we've articulated publicly many times has been to drive towards a 2x net levered company. That's driven in part by our cash flow generation and continued reduction of debt, but also then to grow our EBITDA sort of from here in these run rates, especially as production starts to clip up into the future. So that -- those goals and those objectives and those allocation priorities have not changed.

從槓桿的角度來看，我們的目標是我們多次公開闡明的目標是推動淨槓桿率達到 2 倍的公司。這在一定程度上是由我們的現金流產生和債務的持續減少所推動的，而且我們的 EBITDA 也從這裡開始以這些運行率增長，特別是隨著未來產量開始加快。因此，這些目標和分配優先事項都沒有改變。

That's helpful. And if I could just circle back to the EV wins. In the past, you've put out a backlog for EV. I'm looking at the slide deck, I don't see it. I know the numbers, you're typically pretty strong. Can you maybe give us an update on what the backlog looks like in EV?

這很有幫助。如果我能回到電動車的勝利。過去，您已經積壓了電動車訂單。我正在看投影片，但沒看到。我知道這些數字，你通常都很強。您能否向我們介紹一下 EV 積壓工作的最新情況？

Yes, we released that earlier in the year, actually at our CES show in January. It was about 40% of our backlog. We typically update that once a year. I would expect to see something early next year with that. .

是的，我們在今年早些時候發布了它，實際上是在 1 月的 CES 展會上。這大約占我們積壓訂單的 40%。我們通常每年更新一次。我預計明年初會看到一些東西。 。

Our next question comes from [Tom Marian] from RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 [Tom Marian]。

Follow-ups on some of the questions that just got asked. So in the event there is this like snapback post UAW production. Just curious as to your guys' production capacity. Presumably, you're not obviously operating at kind of 100% or whatever, but like -- I mean, there's clearly a limitation as far as how much can be produced. Just curious if there's any color on that dynamic. Like can you -- or are you at all seeing enough inertia to kind of overproduce or do weekends or et cetera that you ordinarily not do? Are you seeing this like sharp snapback potential? That's the first question.

剛剛提出的一些問題跟進。因此，萬一出現 UAW 生產後的快速恢復情況。只是好奇你們的生產能力。據推測，你顯然並沒有以 100% 或其他方式運營，但就像——我的意思是，就生產量而言，顯然存在限制。只是好奇這種動態是否有任何色彩。就像你可以——或者你是否有足夠的慣性來過度生產或在周末做一些你通常不會做的事情？您是否看到了這種急劇反彈的潛力？這是第一個問題。

Well, remember, many of us were running heavy prior to the strike taking place as OEMs were trying to build some strike thing protection. So we've got experience of doing that and running it at the higher capacity levels based on our installed capacity. I expect, as I said earlier, that the customers are going to try to make up for lost units because of the work stoppage. Therefore, they'll be pushing the supply base, not just AM, but the full supply base to those maximum capacity levels.

好吧，請記住，在罷工發生之前，我們中的許多人都在忙著跑步，因為原始設備製造商正在嘗試建立一些罷工保護措施。因此，我們擁有這樣做的經驗，並根據我們的裝置容量以更高的容量水平運行它。正如我之前所說，我預計客戶將盡力彌補因停工而損失的單位。因此，他們將推動供應基地，不僅是增材製造，而是整個供應基地達到最大產能水準。

The question is for how long and how sustainable is that because we all need to be able to do maintenance on our equipment and be able to give our people a break. But at the same time, wherever we can provide a product to support our customers, we're going to do that. And so there will be stress on the system. There's no doubt about it, but it's a design stress by the OEMs. And I think they're going to push the system as hard as they can, and they'll find out which suppliers aren't capable of keeping up and that will be the limiting factor for the industry.

問題是這種情況能持續多久以及可持續程度如何，因為我們都需要能夠對我們的設備進行維護，並且能夠讓我們的員工休息一下。但同時，只要我們能夠提供產品來支援我們的客戶，我們就會這樣做。因此系統將會承受壓力。毫無疑問，這是 OEM 廠商的設計壓力。我認為他們將盡其所能地推動該系統，他們會發現哪些供應商無法跟上，這將成為該行業的限制因素。

Great. Next one on the EV backlog, you just said that you gave that at CES and you give one again next year. Is there any commentary on that backlog? Are you seeing any vulnerability there? Or can you -- is it safe to say that that's pretty secure as of now to any cancellations? Any kind of color on that backlog?

偉大的。關於電動車積壓的下一個項目，您剛剛說過您在 CES 上提供了該項目，明年您將再次提供一個。對於積壓的工作有什麼評論嗎？您發現那裡有任何漏洞嗎？或者你可以——可以肯定地說，到目前為止，任何取消都是相當安全的嗎？積壓訂單上有什麼顏色嗎？

Yes. As it relates to our backlog, we disclosed earlier in the year, no significant cancellations at this point in time.

是的。由於這與我們的積壓有關，我們在今年稍早披露，目前沒有重大取消。

Our next question comes from [Joe Stack] from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的[Joe Stack]。

A couple of questions here. One, on the operational challenges you listed, which -- and you know this sort of chart with the circle is helpful. But what -- like what would be the factors that would cause either an acceleration or a delay versus getting things back in order by that second quarter '24 time frame? Is it really labor or -- which is a little bit outside of your control, especially if it's sort of further down the supply chain to your suppliers? Or is it more stuff under your control that would cause it to lean one way versus the other?

這裡有幾個問題。第一，關於您列出的營運挑戰，您知道這種帶圓圈的圖表很有幫助。但是，與在 24 年第二季的時間範圍內恢復正常相比，哪些因素會導致加速或延遲？這真的是勞動力嗎？還是——這有點超出您的控制範圍，特別是如果它位於供應鏈下游的供應商那裡？或者是否有更多的東西在你的控制之下，導致它向一側傾斜而不向另一側傾斜？

Joe, this is David. Clearly, the biggest issue for us is just the labor availability side of things. We had some major shortfalls on labor availability or labor scarcity in a couple of our critical metal forming plants. We've now dealt with that. The bigger issue that we're dealing with now is we've got the bodies. Some of those bodies don't have the same experience level or a skill set level. Therefore, it takes us a little bit longer, and we lose some efficiency or we drive inefficiencies into our operation that also lead to scrap and other premium costs.

喬，這是大衛。顯然，對我們來說最大的問題只是勞動力的可用性面向。我們幾個關鍵的金屬成型工廠在勞動力供應方面嚴重短缺或勞動力短缺。我們現在已經解決了這個問題。我們現在要處理的更大問題是我們已經找到了屍體。其中一些機構沒有相同的經驗水平或技能水平。因此，我們需要更長的時間，並且會損失一些效率，或導致營運效率低下，從而導致廢品和其他溢價成本。

So now that we have the bodies, it's a matter for us to getting them trained and up to our standards which will then help us alleviate those premium costs that we're incurring right now. So I think the biggest issue was just labor availability. I think we've addressed that between permanent hires as well as contractor temporary hires, but the biggest thing now is going to be within our control with respect to getting them up the learning curve and then minimizing the premium costs we're incurring.

因此，現在我們有了屍體，我們需要對它們進行培訓並使其達到我們的標準，這將有助於我們減輕目前所產生的額外費用。所以我認為最大的問題就是勞動力的可用性。我認為我們已經解決了長期僱用和承包商臨時僱用之間的問題，但現在最重要的事情將在我們的控制範圍內，讓他們提高學習曲線，然後最大限度地減少我們所產生的溢價成本。

If I could just follow up there, and maybe I misunderstood, but I thought you were sort of implying that there's labor challenges even broader through the supply chain maybe to your suppliers. Is that not the case? And if your suppliers continue to have some issues or challenges, could that, in turn, impact you upstream?

如果我能跟進的話，也許我誤解了，但我認為你有點暗示，整個供應鏈可能對你的供應商有更廣泛的勞動力挑戰。難道不是這樣嗎？如果您的供應商繼續遇到一些問題或挑戰，這是否會反過來影響您的上游？

Joe, there's still labor availability or scarcity issues in the marketplace across the supply base. So we all run the risk, not just AAM, we all run the risk of that. I mean, clearly, we're working with our various tiers to try to understand where we have risk and mitigate that risk wherever possible. Over the last couple of years, AAM has in-sourced a lot of work. So it's within our control in many cases. But we do run some risk, and we are monitoring several suppliers right now that have labor scarcity issues.

喬，整個供應基地市場仍然存在勞動力可用性或稀缺問題。因此，我們所有人都面臨著風險，而不僅僅是 AAM，我們所有人都面臨著這一風險。我的意思是，顯然，我們正在與各個層面合作，試圖了解我們有風險的地方，並盡可能減輕風險。在過去幾年中，AAM 內包了大量工作。所以在很多情況下它都在我們的控制範圍內。但我們確實面臨一些風險，我們現在正在監控幾家有勞動力短缺問題的供應商。

Okay. And then second question, and I think you sort of touched on this a little bit earlier, but maybe to ask it a different way. Like you mentioned some of the recoveries were maybe pushed as you had some customers that were somewhat distracted this quarter. Maybe if you could quantify that one, that would be helpful.

好的。然後是第二個問題，我認為您早些時候已經談到過這個問題，但也許是以不同的方式提出的。就像您提到的，一些復甦可能會被推遲，因為您的一些客戶本季有些分心。也許如果你能量化這一點，那會很有幫助。

But two, obviously, the -- your customers are facing increased costs next year and the year after as well. So it seems like maybe those negotiations if they are pushed or get a little bit tougher. And I'm just wondering if you have any early insight into how you go after what is rightfully yours, whether that is lump sum payments or maybe it sort of takes the form of piece price adjustments or maybe even securing future business.

但顯然，您的客戶明年和後年都將面臨成本增加的問題。因此，如果這些談判被推動或變得更加艱難，那麼這些談判似乎可能會發生。我只是想知道您是否對如何追求應得的東西有任何早期了解，無論是一次性付款還是可能採取計件價格調整的形式，甚至可能確保未來的業務。

Like I said in my remarks, many of our negotiations in the third quarter where we expected to bring resolution got postponed or pushed into the fourth quarter and understandably so because of the focus on work stoppage and the labor negotiations. We've been in earnest discussion with them. We continue -- as I mentioned here in the fourth quarter, there's always dynamic tension that there's there. We've got to find a solution that's mutually beneficial to both of us. We can't just absorb all the economic inflationary issues that are going on. You know what I'm talking about there.

正如我在演講中所說，我們預計在第三季度達成解決方案的許多談判都被推遲或推遲到第四季度，這是可以理解的，因為重點是停工和勞資談判。我們一直在與他們進行認真的討論。我們繼續下去——正如我在第四季度提到的那樣，那裡總是存在著動態的緊張局勢。我們必須找到一個對我們雙方都有利的解決方案。我們不能僅僅吸收正在發生的所有經濟通膨問題。你知道我在說什麼。

At the same time, it's going to be -- it won't be the same solution, I don't think for every customer, and we'll do our best to do that. But at the same time, it could be lump sum, could be piece price, could be a number of different ways that things can get ultimately resolved. Ultimately, what we need is relief to the inflated costs that we're incurring across the board for material to wages or labor to utilities and freight other things that we've encouraged -- encountered over the years.

同時，它不會是相同的解決方案，我不認為對每個客戶都是如此，我們將盡最大努力做到這一點。但同時，它可以是一次性付款，可以是計件價格，可以是最終解決問題的多種不同方式。最終，我們需要的是緩解我們多年來所鼓勵的材料、工資、勞動力、公用事業和貨運等方面所產生的全面膨脹成本。

We are being respectful of the fact that, and we are seeing some trends in the right direction from a macro standpoint where some of these costs are coming down. So we've taken some of those issues off the table, but there's still a large number that needs to be dealt with these customers.

我們尊重這一事實，從宏觀角度來看，我們看到了一些朝著正確方向發展的趨勢，其中一些成本正在下降。因此，我們已經解決了其中一些問題，但仍有大量問題需要與這些客戶處理。

And any sense of the magnitude of recoveries you were expecting in the quarter that got delayed?

您對延遲的季度復甦的幅度有任何感覺嗎？

Yes, I wouldn't say magnitude of recoveries per se Joe. This is Chris. If you look at our last couple of bridges that we've provided through these earnings calls, we talked about, this quarter, 20% to 30% of that $30 million of performance related to net inflation. You saw a number of about $14 million we disclosed in the second quarter and another similar number back in the first quarter. So that's giving you the magnitude of the inflation headwinds that we're facing that we're obviously in active discussion with.

是的，我不會說恢復程度本身，喬。這是克里斯。如果你看看我們透過這些財報電話會議提供的最後幾座橋樑，我們談到，本季度，3000 萬美元業績的 20% 到 30% 與淨通膨有關。您可以看到我們在第二季度披露的約 1400 萬美元的金額以及第一季披露的另一個類似數字。因此，這讓您了解了我們所面臨的通膨逆風的嚴重程度，我們顯然正在積極討論這個問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, our last question today comes from Dan Levy from Barclays.

女士們先生們，我們今天的最後一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。

A couple of questions on the EV side. First, maybe you can just give us a sense of the trajectory of your R&D spend on EVs. I know you said the backlog right now which is intact, the program delays. But maybe you could give us a sense of the trajectory. And specifically, the level of flexibility you have if there are haircuts to emerge on the volume side, what flexibility do you have to defer pieces of spend?

關於電動車方面的幾個問題。首先，也許您可以讓我們了解您在電動車上的研發支出軌跡。我知道你說現在的積壓工作完好無損，但計劃延遲了。但也許你可以讓我們了解發展軌跡。具體來說，如果數量方面出現削減，您所擁有的彈性程度，您有什麼彈性可以推遲支出？

From a dollar perspective -- Dan, this is Chris. From a trajectory, as you know, we've talked about what would probably the last, I would say, 4 to 8 quarters that we would from a spend perspective, clip it up to about $35 million to $40 million per quarter. You see us now sort of performing in that range. That's why while we're building out our electrification platform, while we have 1 work and beginning some development work for the programs that we have won, in the event that something was delayed or deferred or something of that nature, obviously, we can manage some of those costs accordingly.

從美元的角度來看——丹，這是克里斯。如您所知，從軌跡來看，我們已經討論過可能會在最後 4 到 8 個季度，從支出角度來看，我們會將其削減至每季度 3500 萬至 4000 萬美元左右。你現在看到我們的表現在這個範圍內。這就是為什麼當我們正在建造我們的電氣化平台時，雖然我們有一項工作並開始為我們贏得的項目進行一些開發工作，但如果出現某些事情被延遲或推遲或類似性質的事情，顯然我們可以管理其中一些費用相應地增加。

Dan, this is David. The only thing I would say is that, obviously, all the OEMs are going to be reevaluating their electrification strategies in light of some of the softening of the EVs as far as inventory levels are growing, and just maybe the acceptance by the consumer is maybe a little bit slower than maybe what was anticipated. So as Chris said, we can throttle things with respect to our spending there. But at the same time, we want to make sure that we continue to develop the portfolio so we can be agnostic to the market so we can supply ICE hybrid or EV-related products going forward. So we'll spend appropriately going forward, but we wanted to make sure we round out our electrification portfolio appropriately.

丹，這是大衛。我唯一要說的是，顯然，鑑於電動車的一些疲軟以及庫存水平的增長，所有原始設備製造商都將重新評估其電氣化策略，而且消費者的接受程度可能會很高比預期的要慢一點。因此，正如克里斯所說，我們可以限制在那裡的支出。但同時，我們希望確保繼續開發產品組合，這樣我們就可以對市場保持不可知狀態，以便我們能夠繼續供應內燃機混合動力或電動車相關產品。因此，我們將在未來適當地支出，但我們希望確保適當地完善我們的電氣化投資組合。

Okay. And the margin impact, should we think if there is a slowdown that emerges within your particular product set, but it's offset by ICE. Is it that the margin profile on ICE, at least from a contribution margin standpoint, is superior to EV, so it is net positive to margins? How should we think of the net margin impact in the event of a slower EV volume outlook?

好的。至於利潤率影響，我們是否應該考慮您的特定產品系列中是否出現放緩，但它被 ICE 抵消了。 ICE 的利潤率狀況（至少從貢獻利潤率的角度來看）是否優於 EV，因此它對利潤率是淨正值？如果電動車銷量前景放緩，我們該如何看待淨利潤率的影響？

Yes. If -- holistically, our ICE business is basically how we performed over the last several years, which can be very compelling from a margin perspective. We have high variable profit, if it's just incremental volume on our ICE. It can be anywhere from 25% to 35% depending on the product set. So if it's just variable incremental volume on ICE, that's obviously very positive for us. And some of our large electrification wins, some that we announced earlier are launching in latter part of the decade. So that mix obviously is not upon us right now. We'll launch some smaller programs, but they'll come in at more full cost like any new piece of business would come in at full cost. But a profile, as you know, we've tried to articulate that we're trying to run in reasonable financial returns for both sides of this business.

是的。如果——整體而言，我們的 ICE 業務基本上是我們過去幾年的表現，從利潤角度來看，這可能非常引人注目。如果只是增加我們 ICE 的交易量，我們就有很高的可變利潤。它可以是 25% 到 35% 之間的任何值，具體取決於產品集。因此，如果只是 ICE 上的增量增量，這顯然對我們來說非常積極。我們在電氣化方面取得的一些重大成果，其中一些是我們先前宣布的，將在本世紀後半段推出。因此，這種混合顯然現在還沒有出現在我們身上。我們將推出一些較小的項目，但它們將以更高的全額成本投入，就像任何新業務都會以全額成本投入一樣。但正如您所知，我們試圖闡明我們正在努力為這項業務的雙方帶來合理的財務回報。

But it's very clear that we've got size and scale on our ICE business, and we have growing scale on our EV but you can't expect the margins on EV to be at the same level as ICE right out of the chute. But as that scale grows, then you could expect margins to improve. But clearly, as Chris indicated, we should benefit if there's a slowdown of ICE based on -- I mean a slowdown of EV based on ICE margins that we're incurring today.

但很明顯，我們的內燃機業務已經有了規模，而且我們的電動車規模也在不斷擴大，但你不能指望電動車的利潤率能立即達到與內燃機相同的水平。但隨著規模的擴大，你可以預期利潤率會提高。但顯然，正如克里斯所指出的，如果 ICE 成長放緩，我們應該會受益——我的意思是，基於我們今天的 ICE 利潤率，電動車增速放緩。

Okay. And just as a follow-up, I think what we've heard from some of the OEMs out there is that in a weaker volume environment, it makes them rethink the level of vertical integration that they have planned because maybe it takes them longer to get scale or to get the volumes to justify that scale. Is the tone or tenor of your conversations with OEMs who maybe initially were a bit more aggressive on vertical integration shifting a bit that there's perhaps a bit more opportunity for that to be outsourced to you?

好的。作為後續行動，我認為我們從一些原始設備製造商那裡聽到的是，在銷量較弱的環境中，這使他們重新考慮他們計劃的垂直整合水平，因為也許他們需要更長的時間才能實現獲得規模或獲得數量來證明該規模的合理性。您與原始設備製造商（OEM）對話的語氣或基調是否會發生一些變化，這些原始設備製造商最初可能在垂直整合方面更加積極主動，以至於可能有更多機會將其外包給您？

We haven't had any discussions to date because the labor negotiations just have wrapped up. They've clearly got to assess their long-range product plans strategies, what they want to do to your point on vertical integration. They clearly understand our capability. They clearly understand that we're available to help them. Currently, today, we have a cost structure that's lower than the OEM cost structure. Hopefully, we can maintain that as we go forward. So I do expect that there will be some discussions along those lines in the future.

到目前為止我們還沒有進行任何討論，因為勞資談判剛剛結束。他們顯然必須評估他們的長期產品規劃策略，他們想要對你的垂直整合觀點做些什麼。他們清楚地了解我們的能力。他們清楚地知道我們可以幫助他們。目前，我們的成本結構低於 OEM 成本結構。希望我們能夠在前進的過程中保持這一點。所以我確實希望將來會有一些類似的討論。

Thank you, Dan, and we thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM. We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future. Thank you.

謝謝 Dan，我們感謝所有參與本次電話會議的人，並感謝您對 AAM 的興趣。我們當然期待將來與您交談。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們先生們，今天的電話會議和演講到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。現在您可以斷開線路。