American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone.

大家，早安。

My name is Jason, and I will be your conference facilitator today.

我叫傑森，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing first-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 American Axle & Manufacturing 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. David Lim, Head of Investor Relations.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 David Lim 先生。

Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

請繼續，林先生。

Thank you and good morning from Detroit.

謝謝你，來自底特律的早安。

I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's first-quarter earnings call.

我謹歡迎每一位參加 AAM 第一季財報電話會議的人。

Earlier this morning, we released our first quarter of 2024 earnings announcement.

今天早些時候，我們發布了 2024 年第一季財報公告。

You can access this announcement on the investor relations page of our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services.

您可以透過我們網站 www.aam.com 的投資者關係頁面以及美通社服務取得本公告。

You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the investor page of our website as well.

您也可以在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到本次電話會議的補充幻燈片。

To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1-877-344-7529, replay access code 944-4230.

若要收聽此通話的重播，您可以撥打 1-877-344-7529，重播接入碼 944-4230。

This replay will be available through May 10.

該重播將持續到 5 月 10 日。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties which cannot be predicted or quantified, and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包含評論和前瞻性陳述，這些評論和前瞻性陳述受到無法預測或量化的風險和不確定性的影響，並可能導致未來的活動和營運結果出現差異實質上來自所討論的內容。

For additional information, we ask that you refer our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，在這次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Information regarding these non-GAAP measures, as well as a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information, is available on our website.

有關這些非 GAAP 衡量標準的信息，以及這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與 GAAP 財務資訊的調整表，請訪問我們的網站。

With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dauch.

接下來，讓我將此事轉交給 AAM 董事長兼執行長 David Dauch。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。

Thank you for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the first quarter of 2024.

感謝您今天加入我們討論 AAM 2024 年第一季的財務表現。

Joining me on the call today is Chris May, AAM's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 AAM 執行副總裁兼財務長 Chris May。

To begin my comments, I'll review the highlights of our first-quarter financial performance.

首先，我將回顧我們第一季財務表現的亮點。

Next I'll touch on some business development news and provide commentary about the industry.

接下來我將介紹一些業務發展新聞並提供有關行業的評論。

And After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we will open up the call for any questions that you may have.

在克里斯詳細介紹我們的財務表現後，我們將撥打電話詢問您可能有的任何問題。

So let's begin, AAM's first quarter of 2024, sales were $1.61 billion and adjusted earnings per share was $0.18 per share.

首先，AAM 2024 年第一季的銷售額為 16.1 億美元，調整後每股收益為 0.18 美元。

And our adjusted free cash flow was a use of 21 million.

我們調整後的自由現金流使用了2100萬。

First quarter production environment was relatively more stable compared to previous quarters, supporting our production system efficiency volumes on our key programs were also stronger than a year ago from a profit, the profitability perspective, AAM's adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $2.6 million or 12.8% of sales year-over-year margin improvement stemmed from the benefits of production stability, stronger volumes and our improvement initiatives.

第一季的生產環境比前幾季相對更加穩定，支援我們關鍵專案的生產系統效率也比一年前更強，從獲利角度來看，AAM 第一季調整後EBITDA 為260 萬美元，即12.8 美元銷售額同比利潤率的提高源於生產穩定性、銷售成長和我們的改進舉措的好處。

Our results demonstrate on a sequential basis that we are experiencing good traction with our performance plans.

我們的結果表明，我們的績效計劃正在經歷良好的牽引力。

Margins for both of our business units increased in the first quarter from the fourth quarter.

我們兩個業務部門的利潤率在第一季均較第四季有所成長。

So 2024, 2024 is off to a solid start.

所以2024年，2024年有了一個好的開始。

Chris will provide more details about our overall financial performance during the prepared remarks.

克里斯將在準備好的演講中提供有關我們整體財務業績的更多詳細資訊。

Let me talk about some business updates, which you can see on Slide 4 of our presentation deck.

讓我談談一些業務更新，您可以在我們簡報的幻燈片 4 中看到這些更新。

We are very pleased to announce today.

我們今天非常高興地宣布。

I am working with our key partner in advance, will supply XPDD. with 3-in-1 electric drive units in China started production is slated for later this year.

我正在提前與我們的主要合作夥伴合作，將供應 XPDD。三合一電力驅動裝置預計今年稍晚在中國開始生產。

Thus far, our shipments are approaching almost a 0.5 million electric drive units in China over the last several years.

到目前為止，過去幾年我們在中國的電力驅動裝置出貨量已接近 50 萬台。

This clearly demonstrates a and technology in the market demand for our electric drive systems.

這清楚地表明了市場對我們的電力驅動系統的技術需求。

Furthermore, we won contracts with multiple luxury European OEM to supply electric vehicle components.

此外，我們還贏得了多家歐洲豪華汽車整車廠的電動車零件供應合約。

In addition to our strong ICE and hybrid business.

除了我們強大的內燃機和混合動力業務。

Our two pronged electrification strategy of providing full electric drive systems and components for electric vehicles, well positioned ADM to take advantage of the growing global electrification market.

我們的雙管齊下的電氣化策略是為電動車提供全電驅動系統和零件，ADM 處於有利地位，可以利用不斷增長的全球電氣化市場。

Now let's talk about the industry.

現在我們來談談產業。

Although time is fluid, electric vehicles has established a footprint in the developed markets.

儘管時間瞬息萬變，電動車已在已開發市場佔有一席之地。

However, in the near term, OEMs are reformulating their respective powertrain strategies given the recent consumer adoption rates, especially here in North America.

然而，鑑於最近的消費者採用率，尤其是在北美，短期內，原始設備製造商正在重新制定各自的動力系統策略。

What this means is current ICE platforms will run longer than originally expected and there potentially could even be additional future generations of ICE vehicles, especially with hybrid applications.

這意味著目前的 ICE 平台的運行時間將比最初預期的更長，甚至可能會出現更多的未來幾代 ICE 車輛，尤其是混合動力應用。

Either way, this is highly beneficial for American Axle.

不管怎樣，這對 American Axle 來說都是非常有利的。

I've said this before, the market is the boss and the end customer will ultimately influence what is moving through the showroom while battery technology, charging infrastructure and cost structure improve over time.

我之前說過，市場是老闆，最終客戶最終將影響陳列室中的商品，而電池技術、充電基礎設施和成本結構將隨著時間的推移而改善。

And we'll continue the development of our electric product portfolio and further position ourselves to be agnostic to changes in propulsion system technologies.

我們將繼續開發我們的電動產品組合，並進一步定位自己，以適應推進系統技術的變化。

But as a company, aim is very focused on maximizing our current product portfolio and driving profitable growth.

但作為一家公司，目標非常注重最大化我們目前的產品組合併推動獲利成長。

But given the dynamics, I just mentioned, it's not a growth at all cost approach.

但考慮到我剛才提到的動態，這並不是一種不惜一切代價實現成長的方法。

We will be disciplined.

我們會遵守紀律。

We will seek appropriate returns, and we will make hard but necessary decisions while pursuing new business, especially in the area of electrification.

我們將尋求適當的回報，在追求新業務的同時，我們將做出艱難但必要的決定，特別是在電氣化領域。

In other words, any business we take on must make business sense and add value to our company.

換句話說，我們開展的任何業務都必須具有商業意義並為我們的公司增加價值。

From an ESG perspective, we are also very pleased to announce that we recently published our 2023 sustainability report.

從ESG角度來看，我們也非常高興地宣布，我們最近發布了2023年永續發展報告。

Some of the key highlights from that report include we achieved ISO 5,001 certification at all of our manufacturing facilities.

該報告的一些主要亮點包括我們的所有製造工廠都獲得了 ISO 5,001 認證。

We received 21 quality performance awards.

我們獲得了 21 項品質績效獎。

We exceeded our 2023 U.S. renewable and carbon-free energy goals.

我們超額完成了 2023 年美國再生能源和無碳能源目標。

We increased our supplier diversity spend year over year by 12%, and we launched a global transportation campaign to reduce emissions.

我們將供應商多元化支出逐年增加了 12%，並發起了全球運輸活動以減少排放。

Clearly, I am as committed to profitably growing our business, but in a sustainable and socially responsible way.

顯然，我同樣致力於以可持續和對社會負責的方式發展我們的業務並實現盈利。

So let's quickly talk about our guidance.

那麼讓我們快速談談我們的指導。

The strong first quarter performance gives us added confidence about our full year guide.

第一季的強勁表現讓我們對全年指南更有信心。

However, the year is still early and much can change between now and December 31st.

然而，今年還為時過早，從現在到 12 月 31 日之間可能會發生很多變化。

As such, our guidance remains unchanged for now.

因此，我們的指導目前保持不變。

Aam is targeting sales of 6.05 to 6.35 billion.

Aam 的目標銷售額為 605 至 63.5 億美元。

Our adjusted EBITDA of approximately 685 to $750 million and adjusted free cash flow of approximately 200 to $240 million.

我們調整後的 EBITDA 約為 685 至 7.5 億美元，調整後的自由現金流約為 200 至 2.4 億美元。

To conclude my remarks and as I have communicated previously, our aim is not a future, and we will continue to drive our efforts towards securing our primary legacy business.

最後，正如我之前所傳達的那樣，我們的目標不是未來，我們將繼續努力確保我們的主要遺留業務。

And we've made great progress on that generating strong free cash flow, strengthening our balance sheet, advancing our electrification portfolio and position AAM for profitable growth.

我們在產生強勁的自由現金流、強化資產負債表、推進電氣化產品組合以及幫助 AAM 實現盈利成長方面取得了巨大進展。

So with that, let me now turn the call over to our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May.

因此，現在讓我將電話轉給我們的執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯梅。

Chris?

克里斯？

Okay.

好的。

Thank you, David, and good morning to everyone.

謝謝你，大衛，祝大家早安。

I will cover the financial details of our first quarter 2024 with you today.

今天我將向您介紹 2024 年第一季的財務細節。

I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments.

我還將參考收益幻燈片，作為我準備好的評論的一部分。

So let's go ahead and begin with sales.

那麼就讓我們從銷售開始吧。

In the first quarter of 2024, AAM sales were $1.61 billion compared to $1.49 billion in the first quarter of 2023.

2024 年第一季度，AAM 銷售額為 16.1 億美元，而 2023 年第一季為 14.9 億美元。

Slide 8 shows a walk of first quarter 2023 sales to first quarter 2024 sales, positive volume mix and other was $114 million, driven in part by our backlog with key programs such as GM's mid-size truck and a cherry SUV in China.

幻燈片8 顯示了2023 年第一季銷售額到2024 年第一季銷售額的變化情況、銷量組合和其他金額為1.14 億美元，部分原因是我們在中國的通用汽車中型卡車和櫻桃SUV 等關鍵項目的積壓訂單。

In addition, we have had better than expected volumes on certain programs, including the T1XX platforms, metal market pass-throughs and FX increased sales by approximately $6 million.

此外，我們在某些​​項目上的銷量超出了預期，包括 T1XX 平台、金屬市場直通和外匯，銷售額增加了約 600 萬美元。

The increase was mainly from metals, which were higher than a year ago.

成長主要來自金屬，高於去年同期。

Now let's move on to profitability.

現在讓我們轉向獲利能力。

Gross profit was $198.5 million in the first quarter of 2024 as compared to $160.6 million in the first quarter of 2023.

2024 年第一季的毛利為 1.985 億美元，而 2023 年第一季的毛利為 1.606 億美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was $205.6 million in the first quarter of 2024 versus $175.4 million last year.

2024 年第一季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.056 億美元，去年為 1.754 億美元。

You can see the year-over-year walk down of adjusted EBITDA on Slide 9.

您可以在投影片 9 上看到調整後 EBITDA 的年減。

In the quarter, volume mix and other added a net 31 million of adjusted EBITDA versus the prior year, resulting in a profit conversion rate of approximately 27%.

本季度，銷售組合和其他調整後 EBITDA 與上年相比淨增加 3,100 萬美元，利潤轉換率約為 27%。

R&d was lower year over year as timing of R&D spend can be lumpy from quarter to quarter and net inflation performance in others was favorable by $8 million, driven by a combination of the efficiency benefits of less production volatility and our operational improvement initiatives, partially offset by inflation costs.

研發支出較去年同期下降，因為研發支出的時間可能會從季度到季度不穩定，而其他國家的淨通膨表現則有利800 萬美元，這得益於生產波動性較小的效率效益和我們的營運改進舉措，部分抵消了通過通貨膨脹成本。

Let me now cover SG&A SG&A expense, including R&D in the first quarter of 2024 was 98.3 million or 6.1% of sales.

現在讓我介紹一下 SG&A SG&A 費用，包括 2024 年第一季的研發費用為 9,830 萬美元，佔銷售額的 6.1%。

This compares to an identical $98.3 million or 6.6% of sales in the first quarter of 2023.

相比之下，2023 年第一季銷售額為 9,830 萬美元，佔銷售額的 6.6%。

And R&D spending in the first quarter of 2024, it was approximately 37 million.

而2024年第一季的研發支出約為3700萬。

We expect our R&D spend to be flattish year over year and anticipate about 35 to 40 million per quarter on average.

我們預計我們的研發支出將與去年同期持平，平均每季約為 35 至 4,000 萬美元。

But as I mentioned, this amount can vary from quarter to quarter.

但正如我所提到的，這個金額可能會因季度而異。

We anticipate R&D spending should moderate in the coming years as we finish developing our electric platform technologies.

我們預計，隨著我們完成電動平台技術的開發，未來幾年研發支出將會放緩。

Let's now move on to interest and taxes.

現在讓我們繼續討論利息和稅金。

Net interest expense was 41 million in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 45 million in the first quarter of 2023 due in part to lower debt balances.

2024 年第一季的淨利息支出為 4,100 萬美元，而 2023 年第一季的淨利息支出為 4,500 萬美元，部分原因是債務餘額減少。

In addition, we paid down over 10 million of debt in the quarter.

此外，我們在本季還清了超過 1,000 萬美元的債務。

In the first quarter of 2024, we recorded income tax expense of 15.9 million compared to no tax expense in the first quarter of 2023.

2024 年第一季度，我們錄得所得稅費用為 1,590 萬美元，而 2023 年第一季沒有所得稅費用。

This increase in our elevated effective tax rate was driven by higher profitability and an expense for valuation allowances, primarily related to interest expense deduction limitations in the US.

我們提高有效稅率的原因是獲利能力提高和估價津貼費用，主要與美國的利息費用扣除限制有關。

As we head into 2024, we expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 40% to 45%.

進入 2024 年，我們預計調整後的有效稅率約為 40% 至 45%。

This elevated book tax rate is a function of the valuation allowance I just described.

這種提高的帳面稅率是我剛才描述的估價津貼的函數。

We also expect cash taxes of approximately 50 to 55 million this year.

我們也預計今年的現金稅約為 5,000 至 5,500 萬美元。

Taking all these sales and cost drivers into account, our GAAP net income was $20.5 million or $0.17 per share in the first quarter of 2024 compared to a net loss of $5.1 million or $0.04 per share in the first quarter of 2023.

考慮到所有這些銷售和成本驅動因素，我們2024 年第一季的GAAP 淨利潤為2,050 萬美元，即每股0.17 美元，而2023 年第一季的淨虧損為510 萬美元，即每股0.04 美元。

Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release was $0.18 per share in the first quarter of 2024 compared to a loss of $0.01 per share for the first quarter of 2023.

2024 年第一季調整後每股收益（不包括我們收益新聞稿中提到的項目的影響）為 0.18 美元，而 2023 年第一季每股虧損 0.01 美元。

Let's now move on to cash flow and the balance sheet.

現在讓我們轉向現金流和資產負債表。

Net cash provided by operating activities for the first quarter of 2024 was $17.8 million.

2024 年第一季經營活動提供的淨現金為 1,780 萬美元。

Capital expenditures, net of proceeds from the sale of property, plant and equipment for the first quarter of 2024 were 44.9 million.

2024 年第一季的資本支出（扣除出售房產、廠房和設備的收益）為 4,490 萬美元。

Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the first quarter of 2024 were 5.7 million, reflecting the impact of these activities, AAM's adjusted free cash flow was a seasonal use of $21.4 million in the first quarter of 2024.

2024 年第一季重組和收購相關活動的現金支付為 570 萬美元，反映了這些活動的影響，AAM 的調整後自由現金流在 2024 年第一季季節性使用為 2,140 萬美元。

From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the quarter with a net debt of 2.3 billion and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $723.5 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 3.2 times at March 31st.

從債務槓桿角度來看，本季末我們的淨負債為 23 億美元，LTM 調整後 EBITDA 為 7.235 億美元，計算出截至 3 月 31 日的淨槓桿率為 3.2 倍。

Our focus is to continue to strengthen the balance sheet by reducing our debt and ended the quarter with total available liquidity of approximately $1.4 billion consisting of available cash and borrowing capacity on AAM's global credit facilities.

我們的重點是透過減少債務來繼續強化資產負債表，本季末可用流動性總額約為 14 億美元，其中包括可用現金和 AAM 全球信貸安排的借貸能力。

As for the full year outlook on Slide 6, it remains unchanged from when from when we initially provided 2024 guidance on February 16th.

至於幻燈片 6 中的全年展望，與我們最初於 2 月 16 日提供 2024 年指導時相比保持不變。

For sales, our target ranges at 6.05 to $6.35 billion for 2020.

對於銷售額，我們 2020 年的目標範圍為 6.05 至 63.5 億美元。

For this sales target is based upon a North America production of approximately 15.8 million units and assumptions for our key programs remain unchanged from our previous outlook.

這項銷售目標是基於北美約 1580 萬台的產量，我們對關鍵項目的假設與先前的展望保持不變。

As you all know, our sales results are more sensitive to performance of these key programs versus just macro changes to overall industry production.

眾所周知，我們的銷售業績對這些關鍵項目的績效更加敏感，而不僅僅是整個產業生產的宏觀變化。

Relative to past quarters, the production environment was less volatile, and we hope this trend continues for the balance of the year.

與過去幾季相比，生產環境波動較小，我們希望這一趨勢在今年剩餘時間內持續下去。

From an EBITDA perspective, the range remains at 685 to $750 million.

從 EBITDA 角度來看，該區間仍維持在 685 至 7.5 億美元之間。

And our adjusted free cash flow target is 200 to 240 million, although first quarter financial results were off to a good start, the year is just beginning.

我們調整後的自由現金流目標為200至2.4億，儘管第一季財務表現開局良好，但今年才剛開始。

However, from a timing perspective, later in the year, several key programs that we support will be launching and transitioning to new models.

然而，從時間角度來看，今年晚些時候，我們支持的幾個關鍵項目將啟動並過渡到新模型。

In addition, certain third-party estimates have the T1XX platform production to be first half weighted in their latest forecasts.

此外，某些第三方估計 T1XX 平台的產量在其最新預測中佔了上半年的比重。

This compares to an almost even split first half versus second half when we gave our guidance back in February.

相較之下，當我們在二月給予指導時，上半年與下半年幾乎平分秋色。

But all that said, we're making great progress on the performance drivers in our business, and we look forward to the remainder of 2024 and continuing driving positive results.

儘管如此，我們在業務績效驅動方面取得了巨大進展，我們期待 2024 年剩餘時間並繼續取得積極成果。

Thank you for your time and participation on the call today.

感謝您抽空參加今天的電話會議。

I'm going to stop here and turn it back over to David, so we can start Q&A.

我要在這裡停下來，把它轉回給大衛，這樣我們就可以開始問答了。

David?

大衛？

Thank you, Chris and David.

謝謝你們，克里斯和大衛。

We have reserved some time to take questions.

我們預留了一些時間來回答問題。

I would ask that you please limit your questions to no more than two.

我想請您將問題限制在不超過兩個。

So at this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions you may have.

因此，此時，請隨時回答您可能有的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Joe Spak, UBS.

（操作員說明）Joe Spak，UBS。

Good morning, gentlemen.

早安，先生們。

It looked like it was obviously a stronger quarter than I think the industry is looking for reiterated the guidance, Tom, is that really in your view, just sort of some of the cadence of some of the key programs?

看起來這顯然是一個比我認為行業正在尋求重申的指導更強勁的季度，湯姆，在您看來，這真的只是一些關鍵計劃的一些節奏嗎？

I think I think the midpoint of your guide assumed about 1.4 million T. ones from GM, but maybe you could confirm that and like for there to be some upside as it really would you say more execution driven at this point in your mind?

我想我認為你的指南的中點假設來自通用汽車的大約140 萬個T.，但也許你可以確認這一點，並希望有一些好處，因為你真的會說此時在你的腦海中更多的是執行驅動嗎？

This is Chris.

這是克里斯。

Yes, but so a couple of points in there and start, yes, our midpoint of our guidance is approximately 1.4 million units on the GM full-size truck platform.

是的，但有幾點開始，是的，我們指導的中點是通用汽車全尺寸卡車平台上的大約 140 萬輛。

That remains consistent from where we were a quarter ago in our view from that perspective.

從這個角度來看，這與一個季度前的情況保持一致。

But in terms of drivers, I would expect through the course of the year for us to continue to remain on a progressive trend of improvements in hold sticky performance that we achieved here in the first quarter.

但就驅動程式而言，我預計在這一年中，我們將繼續保持第一季在保持黏性性能方面取得的進步趨勢。

But obviously we got to continue to build on this momentum.

但顯然我們必須繼續鞏固這股勢頭。

I think about the back half of the year, we had some large transitions going on at some of our key platforms that we support that are converting into new models.

我認為今年下半年，我們支持的一些關鍵平台正在進行一些重大轉變，這些平台正在轉換為新模型。

So that would impact some of our volumes in the back half of the year.

因此，這將影響我們今年下半年的部分銷售量。

And we're starting to see a little bit of some light truck downtime here in the second quarter from one of our customers, and they talked about that publicly on their calls.

我們開始看到第二季度我們的一位客戶出現了一些輕型卡車的停機情況，他們在電話中公開談論了這一點。

But at the end of the day.

但最終。

I think we're in a pretty good spot where we sit here in the first quarter and we get some things to play out through the year.

我認為我們處於一個非常好的位置，我們在第一季就坐在這裡，並且我們在全年中都會完成一些事情。

Hopefully that addresses your question.

希望這能解決您的問題。

Yeah.

是的。

No, I appreciate it.

不，我很感激。

Tom.

湯姆.

What about just on on R&D spend?

僅僅在研發支出上怎麼樣？

I mean, I think in the past you sort of said you expect to run sort of 40 million pace.

我的意思是，我想你過去曾說過你希望以 4000 萬的速度跑步。

I think it might have been a little bit below that this quarter, but I'm just wondering if you think there's an opportunity to rethink some of that spend or push some of that spend is because, as David sort of mentioned, right, like clearly some electrification plan have had been pushed.

我認為本季的支出可能略低於這個數字，但我只是想知道您是否認為有機會重新考慮部分支出或推動部分支出，因為正如大衛提到的那樣，對吧，就像顯然，一些電氣化計劃已經被推動。

So wanted to understand how you're thinking about that

所以想了解自己是怎麼想的

--

--

Yeah, so included in our guidance for this year, meaning 2024, we are expecting to spend closer towards that $40 million per quarter range.

是的，因此，在我們今年（即 2024 年）的指導中，我們預計每季的支出將接近 4,000 萬美元的範圍。

We're just just shy of that here in the first quarter, it does move around from quarter to quarter.

我們只是在第一季就做到了這一點，但它確實在每個季度都有所變化。

We experienced last year quarters where it was over that average and some in some instances where it was less than that amount.

我們去年的幾個季度都超過了平均水平，在某些情況下還低於平均水平。

But throughout the course of the year, very close to about 35 to $40 million a quarter.

但全年來看，每季的營收非常接近 3,500 至 4,000 萬美元。

We have a lot of activity going on.

我們有很多活動正在進行。

Obviously last year inside of our business, developing our electrification platform.

顯然，去年在我們的業務範圍內，開發了我們的電氣化平台。

We expect that to continue here into into this year.

我們預計這種情況將持續到今年。

We have a fair amount of interest in some of our key products and platforms.

我們對我們的一些關鍵產品和平台非常感興趣。

And we're also getting ready to launch some key programs over the next couple of years as well.

我們也準備在未來幾年推出一些關鍵項目。

So those will continue to consume some R&D dollars and these new programs are both ICE hybrid and as well as our EV programs.

因此，這些將繼續消耗一些研發資金，這些新項目既是內燃機混合動力項目，也是我們的電動車項目。

It's not exclusive to EV.

這並不是電動車獨有的。

So it's launch and on customer driven, there's a there's you don't see from an opportunity to sort of either pull back a little bit or push some of that spend continuing.

因此，它是在客戶驅動下推出的，你看不到有機會稍微縮減或繼續推動部分支出。

Maybe there's a little bit of a bigger inflection.

也許有一點更大的變化。

Yeah, in the near term, I would expect the run-rate to be pretty consistent.

是的，在短期內，我預期運轉率會非常穩定。

But as we've said a couple of times, we would expect over the next year or two as our platform technologies, especially as it relates to electrification start to mature and in a good spot, you will start to see that the development side start to step down.

但正如我們多次說過的那樣，我們預計在未來一兩年內，隨著我們的平台技術（特別是與電氣化相關的技術）開始成熟並且處於良好狀態，您將開始看到開發方面開始下台。

I would expect to see some benefits in the call it mid term associated with that sense, interesting.

我希望在中期看到一些與這種感覺相關的好處，有趣。

Dan Levy, Barclays.

丹·利維，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning.

早安.

Thank you for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

Wondering if you could just start by addressing metal forming a sequential step up.

想知道是否可以從解決金屬形成連續的步驟開始。

As you had talked on the last call, you're going to continue to see progress on some of these operational issues in terms of labor availability and in our output, whatnot.

正如您在上次電話會議上所說的那樣，您將繼續看到在勞動力可用性和我們的產出等方面的一些營運問題上取得的進展。

So maybe you could just talk to where metal forming stands, what are the additional steps to improve it from here?

因此，也許您可以談談金屬成形的立場，從這裡改進它的額外步驟是什麼？

And this is David.

這是大衛。

We saw some marked improvement in regards to our metal forming operations, but still not where we wanted to be.

我們看到金屬成型業務有了一些顯著的改善，但仍然沒有達到我們想要的水平。

The biggest thing we need to do is stabilize some of the operations, which we've done for the most part.

我們需要做的最重要的事情是穩定一些運營，我們已經完成了大部分工作。

Now it's just a matter of rebuilding the profitability of some of the select plants or select product lines we have as you know, some major labor scarcity issues out there.

現在的問題只是重建我們所擁有的一些選定工廠或選定產品線的盈利能力，以及一些主要的勞動力短缺問題。

We've addressed a lot of those issues on by reloading.

我們已經透過重新加載解決了很多此類問題。

Some of our plants changed the compensation structure at some of the existing plants and bringing talent in from other other areas.

我們的一些工廠改變了一些現有工廠的薪資結構，並從其他領域引進人才。

So manpower isn't as big of a problem as it was in the past before, one of the areas we do have still in manpower there to challenge is just the skill sets that will be different today than what it was before, meaning that we need to put more training and an emphasis into their development, which takes a little bit longer when it when it comes to production efficiencies and all.

因此，人力並不像過去那樣是一個大問題，我們仍然需要挑戰的人力領域之一就是今天與以前不同的技能組合，這意味著我們需要對他們的發展進行更多的培訓和重視，這在生產效率等方面需要更長的時間。

But overall, we're pleased with the progress that we're making on overall are for our forging business continues to run very strongly in the steel forging business.

但總的來說，我們對整體取得的進展感到滿意，因為我們的鍛造業務在鋼鍛造業務中繼續強勁運作。

We've got some issues in powder metal that we're working our way through on.

我們在粉末金屬方面遇到了一些問題，正在努力解決。

That's really highlighted what we've highlighted before to you.

這確實突出了我們之前向您強調過的內容。

And we continue to make favorable progress in that area.

我們繼續在該領域取得有利進展。

And we will quarter to quarter as we go forward also, because I don't know if you want to comment,

隨著我們的進展，我們也會逐季進行，因為我不知道你是否想發表評論，

yes, you can see the trend in our margin trajectory of that business segment for us in terms of metal forming in our performance here in the first quarter, Dan, was the best it's been in the last four quarters.

是的，你可以從我們第一季的業績中看到金屬成型業務部門的利潤軌跡趨勢，丹，是過去四個季度中最好的。

So that has been especially sequentially.

所以這是特別連續的。

Those steps that we're taking, you're seeing translate into positive performance for us, and we expect that to continue.

您看到，我們正在採取的這些步驟轉化為我們的正面業績，我們希望這種情況能持續下去。

So as far as cadence through the rest of the year, is it fair to assume that there is a continued positive cadence?

那麼，就今年剩餘時間的節奏而言，假設持續的正向節奏是否公平？

Yes, I would expect so especially on a year over year basis because if you may recall, 20 year over year basis, it really started to sort of step down from a margin performance in the second quarter of last year, that sort of dropped off in the third, but we're now starting to see that upswing.

是的，我預計會如此，特別是在同比基礎上，因為如果你還記得，在同比基礎上 20 年，它確實開始從去年第二季度的利潤率表現開始下降，這種下降在第三次，但我們現在開始看到這種上升。

And we still have a little bit of work to do to drive some further improvements there.

我們仍然需要做一些工作來推動進一步的改進。

Again, we made a lot of activity in the fourth quarter.

同樣，我們在第四季做了很多活動。

We saw a lot of activity in the first quarter.

我們在第一季看到了很多活動。

A lot of it appears to be sticky in terms of performance run rates, we got to continue to hold those and then build upon those going forward.

其中許多在效能運行率方面似乎都是黏性的，我們必須繼續保持這些，然後在這些基礎上繼續前進。

Okay, thank you.

好的謝謝。

And my second question is just on resource allocation and specifically on CapEx, where last few years, your CapEx has been running pretty low now roughly 200 million over the last year.

我的第二個問題是關於資源分配，特別是關於資本支出，過去幾年，你們的資本支出一直很低，現在大約是去年的 2 億。

And CapEx as a percent of sales in the call it the 3% range and you're talking about going to something in the 4.5% range this year.

資本支出佔銷售額的百分比稱為 3% 範圍，而您正在討論今年將達到 4.5% 範圍。

But David, you alluded in your prepared remarks that automakers are rethinking.

但是大衛，你在準備好的演講中提到汽車製造商正在重新思考。

Some of the you are seeing platform is getting candid.

你看到的一些平台正在變得坦誠。

I'm just wondering why there is it may be more of an opportunity for CapEx too, structurally still below, call it that 200 million range, closer to 3% of sales.

我只是想知道為什麼資本支出也可能有更多的機會，結構上仍然低於，稱之為 2 億範圍，接近銷售額的 3％。

As you're seeing an extension of these platforms, what is the runway at it?

當您看到這些平台的擴展時，它的跑道是什麼？

Capex may be slow if you remember, your historic VAM ran in that 4% to 6% of sales when we bought MPG. or CapEx or jumped up to that 6% to 8% of sales, we made a commitment tailwind to get down to that 4% to 5% range and ultimately below four, we've been disciplined in regards to the administration execution of that CapEx management to your point that we've been running yield between 3% and 4% the last couple of years here, we've got some big things that we're launching as far as next generation product.

如果您還記得的話，資本支出可能會很慢，當我們購買 MPG 時，您歷史上的 VAM 佔銷售額的 4% 到 6%。或資本支出或躍升至銷售額的 6% 至 8%，我們承諾順風將其降至 4% 至 5% 範圍並最終低於 4%，我們在該資本支出的管理執行方面受到了紀律處分管理層指出，過去幾年我們的殖利率一直在3% 到4% 之間，我們已經推出了一些重要的產品，包括下一代產品。

And that product will run for a long time.

而且該產品將運作很長時間。

So we've got to upgrade some of that equipment there.

所以我們必須升級那裡的一些設備。

So that's driving some CapEx needs there.

因此，這推動了一些資本支出需求。

Obviously, there's electrification programs and other new ICE and hybrid business that are in our backlog as well that we've got to be able to support so where we can be disciplined and cut costs and manage the CapEx tighter.

顯然，我們的待辦事項中還有電氣化計劃以及其他新的內燃機和混合動力業務，我們必須能夠支持這些業務，以便我們能夠遵守紀律，削減成本並更嚴格地管理資本支出。

We'll do that.

我們會這麼做的。

But we have to make the necessary investments in order to productize protect the product programs that we committed to our customers and also support how we want to run our operations going forward.

但我們必須進行必要的投資，以便產品化，保護我們向客戶承諾的產品計劃，並支持我們未來的營運方式。

But you know us well enough that we're very disciplined in that area.

但您對我們非常了解，我們在這方面非常自律。

We've demonstrated based on our performance the last several years, and we'll continue to look at tightening that down.

我們已經根據過去幾年的表現進行了展示，並且我們將繼續考慮加強這一點。

It only helps us to manage it very tightly because it allows assistance to pay down debt, strengthen the balance sheet or continue to fund electrification growth and or look at other tactical acquisitions that we can work on just in generally, if companies are extending, OEMs are extending the life of their platform but presumably all else equal would reduce your CapEx because you've already incurred that spend?

它只會幫助我們非常嚴格地管理它，因為它可以幫助我們償還債務、加強資產負債表或繼續為電氣化增長提供資金，或者考慮我們一般可以進行的其他戰術收購，如果公司正在擴展，原始設備製造商正在延長其平台的壽命，但想必在其他條件相同的情況下會減少您的資本支出，因為您已經產生了這筆支出？

Correct.

正確的。

But we have obviously an established portfolio today as far as equipment and stuff.

但就設備和材料而言，我們今天顯然擁有成熟的產品組合。

And we had normal maintenance on that at the same time.

我們同時對其進行了正常的維護。

As I said, the key thing is many of our big programs are key platforms are going to next gen products and there are some revisions to that once those products get launched?

正如我所說，關鍵是我們的許多大型專案的關鍵平台都將轉向下一代產品，一旦這些產品推出，就會進行一些修改？

I think you're right.

我想你是對的。

I think that it will be more in a maintenance capital mode and not so much the bigger investment that we're having to spend now for the next generation products.

我認為這將更多地處於維護資本模式，而不是我們現在必須為下一代產品花費的更大投資。

So we're kind of getting hit both ways in regards to the next-generation product as well as electrification.

因此，我們在下一代產品和電氣化方面都受到了雙重打擊。

But same time that next-generation product will subside over the next few years as we get those programs launched.

但同時，隨著我們啟動這些計劃，下一代產品將在未來幾年內消退。

Federico Merendi, Bank of America.

費德里科·梅倫迪，美國銀行。

Good morning, guys.

早上好傢伙。

I'm going to pick the one quick question on the the second half.

我將在下半場選擇一個簡短的問題。

So your larger customer talked about the ramp of EV production in second half?

那麼您的大客戶談到了下半年電動車產量的成長？

And if I heard correctly, you said it part of it might be in the guidance.

如果我沒聽錯的話，你說它的一部分可能在指南中。

What's the risk to that number in case that customer?

如果該客戶對該號碼有何風險？

I don't know they have, let's say, a delay in the production, right.

我不知道他們的製作有延遲，對吧。

Well, I think you're referring to their electrification platform.

嗯，我想你指的是他們的電氣化平台。

Our commentary in terms of production volume, second half is under, I'll call it traditional ICE platform for the full-size truck.

我們對下半年產量的評論如下，我將其稱為全尺寸卡車的傳統ICE平台。

And we articulated that at about 1.4 million units at the midpoint.

我們明確表示，中點數量約 140 萬台。

And we continue to see still good solid demand for that, as you know, they've articulated some of their cadence through the year and the build of that platform.

我們繼續看到對此的需求仍然良好，正如您所知，他們已經闡明了今年的一些節奏以及該平台的構建。

But if if they continue to drive demand for that vehicle, there's either upside or downside to that depends on their production cadence.

但如果他們繼續推動對該車輛的需求，那麼這會帶來好處還是壞處取決於他們的生產節奏。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then the second question I have is on the restructuring sorry, the restructuring actions on.

我的第二個問題是關於重組，抱歉，重組行動正在進行中。

Could you give us some details on what do you expect to be payback time in the magnitude of the savings those actions have gone into January?

您能否向我們提供一些詳細信息，說明您預計一月份這些行動所節省的投資回收期是多少？

Yes, we continued I mean, our guide for this year, somewhere between 15 to $25 million in terms of restructuring, call it, cash and P&L and integration.

是的，我們繼續，我的意思是，我們今年的指導，在重組、現金、損益和整合方面，大約在 15 至 2500 萬美元之間。

So some of that relates to integration of some previous acquisitions that are nearing completion.

因此，其中一些與之前一些即將完成的收購的整合有關。

But in addition, we do have some restructuring activity to optimize our business and reduce our cost structure.

但除此之外，我們確實進行了一些重組活動，以優化我們的業務並降低成本結構。

All that is already included inside at least for the current year inside of our guidance ranges that we have provided, what some of the initiatives that we're taking in terms of fixed capacity reductions, i.e., a plant reduction.

所有這些都已經包含在我們提供的指導範圍內，至少在今年，我們在固定產能削減（即工廠削減）方面採取的一些措施。

It will provide us future benefits and continue to drive us in terms of margin enhancement performance going forward, if necessary, we can integrate notes.

它將為我們帶來未來的好處，並繼續推動我們未來提高利潤率，如有必要，我們可以整合票據。

It's very going and we thank all of you that participated on this call and appreciate your interest in ADM.

會議進展順利，我們感謝所有參與本次電話會議的人，並感謝您對 ADM 的興趣。

We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future.

我們當然期待將來與您交談。

Conference has now concluded for attending today's presentation.

出席今天演講的會議現已結束。

You may now.

你現在可以了。