American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning.

早安.

My name is Betsy, and I will be your conference facilitator today.

我叫貝特西，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 American Axle & Manufacturing 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. David Lim, Head of Investor Relations.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 David Lim 先生。

Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

請繼續，林先生。

Thank you, and good morning.

謝謝你，早安。

I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's third quarter earnings call.

我謹歡迎每一位參加 AAM 第三季財報電話會議的人。

Now earlier this morning, we released our third quarter of 2024 earnings announcement.

今天早些時候，我們發布了 2024 年第三季財報公告。

You can access this announcement on the Investor page of our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services.

您可以在我們網站 www.aam.com 的投資者頁面以及透過美通社服務存取本公告。

You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the Investor page of our website as well.

您也可以在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到本次電話會議的補充幻燈片。

Now, to listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1 (877) 344-7529, replay access code 1531572.

現在，要收聽此通話的重播，您可以撥打 1 (877) 344-7529，重播接入碼 1531572。

The replay will be available through November 15.

重播將持續到 11 月 15 日。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, which cannot be predicted or quantified and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包含受風險和不確定性影響的評論和前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性無法預測或量化，可能導致未來的活動和經營結果出現差異實質上來自所討論的內容。

For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，在這次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Information regarding these non-GAAP measures, as well as a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information, is available on our website.

有關這些非 GAAP 衡量標準的信息，以及這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與 GAAP 財務資訊的調整表，請訪問我們的網站。

With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dauch.

接下來，讓我將此事轉交給 AAM 董事長兼執行長 David Dauch。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。

Thank you for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the third quarter of 2024.

感謝您今天加入我們討論 AAM 2024 年第三季的財務表現。

Joining me on the call today is Christopher May, AAM's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 AAM 執行副總裁兼財務長 Christopher May。

To begin my comments, I'll review the highlights of our third quarter financial performance.

首先，我將回顧我們第三季財務表現的亮點。

Next, I'll touch on some business development news and commentary about the industry.

接下來我會講一些有關產業的業務發展新聞和評論。

After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we will open up the call to any questions that you all may have.

在克里斯詳細介紹我們的財務表現後，我們將透過電話解答大家可能提出的任何問題。

So let's begin with our financial highlights.

讓我們從我們的財務亮點開始。

AAM's third quarter of 2024 sales were $1.5 billion.

AAM 2024 年第三季的銷售額為 15 億美元。

Adjusted earnings per share was $0.20 per share.

調整後每股收益為每股 0.20 美元。

Adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter was $174 million or 11.6% of sales.

第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.74 億美元，佔銷售額的 11.6%。

And adjusted free cash flow was $75 million.

調整後的自由現金流為 7,500 萬美元。

AAM delivered year-over-year financial performance driven by productivity and operating efficiencies, resulting in margin expansion despite lower sales versus last year.

在生產力和營運效率的推動下，AAM 實現了同比財務業績，儘管銷售額較去年有所下降，但利潤率仍實現了成長。

Let me provide you with some high-level perspective on what unfolded in the quarter.

讓我向您提供有關本季所發生情況的一些高層觀點。

Overall, North American volumes for the industry were down approximately 5% from last year and 9% sequentially.

總體而言，該產業北美銷量較去年下降約 5%，較上一季下降 9%。

In addition, two of our largest programs are in the different stages of launch, which we continue to support.

此外，我們最大的兩個項目正處於啟動的不同階段，我們將繼續提供支援。

This was partially offset by year-over-year volume growth in the GM T1XX platform.

這被通用汽車 T1XX 平台同比銷量成長部分抵消。

Operationally, we are making positive strides, and this can be seen in our EBITDA results.

在營運方面，我們正在取得積極進展，這可以從我們的 EBITDA 業績中看出。

The AAM team remains highly focused on driving efficiency, cost, and utilization.

AAM 團隊仍然高度關注提高效率、成本和利用率。

Simply, we're managing factors that are under our control and look forward to further positive performance.

簡而言之，我們正在管理我們控制範圍內的因素，並期待進一步積極的表現。

Now, let's talk about some business updates, which you can see on slide 4 of our presentation deck.

現在，我們來談談一些業務更新，您可以在我們簡報的幻燈片 4 中看到這些更新。

We are very pleased to announce that AAM was awarded business to supply an electric beam axle to a Chinese OEM.

我們非常高興地宣布 AAM 獲得了向一家中國 OEM 供應電動梁軸的業務。

The launch is scheduled for 2025, and this win reflects our ability to combine our strong technology and experience in beam axles and electric drives.

該產品預計於 2025 年推出，這場勝利體現了我們將梁軸和電力驅動方面的強大技術和經驗結合起來的能力。

Furthermore, AAM will support a well-known premium luxury performance European OEM with electric vehicle components.

此外，AAM 還將為一家著名的優質豪華性能歐洲 OEM 提供電動車零件支援。

These two wins are examples of our capabilities in the EV market.

這兩項勝利證明了我們在電動車市場的能力。

We can provide dynamic component and subsystems to full turnkey e-Drives and e-Beam systems.

我們可以為完整的交鑰匙電子驅動器和電子束系統提供動態組件和子系統。

Let's talk about our legacy business.

我們來談談我們的傳統業務。

We continue to gain traction with supporting ICE programs.

我們繼續透過支持 ICE 計劃獲得動力。

Last quarter, we announced a win for a van program.

上個季度，我們宣布了貨車項目的勝利。

And recently, we have been awarded multiple ICE components for several OEMs.

最近，我們獲得了多家 OEM 的多個 ICE 組件。

In our view, combustion engines will be around for a long time, and as you know, this is good for AAM.

我們認為，內燃機將會存在很長一段時間，而且如您所知，這對 AAM 來說是件好事。

In sum, AAM's comprehensive product portfolio well positions the company to support OEMs' various propulsion needs.

總之，AAM 全面的產品組合使該公司能夠很好地支援 OEM 的各種推進需求。

And finally, last month, we announced the sale of our India commercial vehicle axle business for a purchase price of $65 million.

最後，上個月，我們宣布以 6,500 萬美元的收購價出售印度商用車車軸業務。

We anticipate this deal will close in the fourth quarter of this year.

我們預計這筆交易將於今年第四季完成。

This is a highly favorable transaction for AAM, and this sale allows us to strengthen our focus on light vehicle, ICE, hybrids and full electric passenger car, pickup truck, and SUV and van applications on a global basis.

對於AAM 來說，這是一筆非常有利的交易，此次出售使我們能夠在全球範圍內加強對輕型汽車、內燃機、混合動力汽車和全電動乘用車、皮卡車、SUV 和貨車應用的關注。

In addition, it provides us additional financial flexibility.

此外，它還為我們提供了額外的財務靈活性。

Now, let's talk about the industry.

現在，我們來談談這個行業。

AAM's view is that ICE, hybrid, and EV powertrains will coexist for a very long time, particularly in the US market.

AAM 認為，內燃機、混合動力和電動車動力系統將長期共存，特別是在美國市場。

We have seen others adjust electric vehicle take rates down over the past year or so, which is reaffirming our view.

在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們看到其他人調整了電動車的使用率，這再次證實了我們的觀點。

What will drive electric vehicle adoption will be factors such as affordability, range, charging availability and electrical infrastructure.

推動電動車採用的因素包括價格承受能力、行駛里程、充電可用性和電力基礎設施等因素。

In the near term, it appears to us the OEMs are still evaluating their future product planning strategies.

在我們看來，短期內，原始設備製造商仍在評估其未來的產品規劃策略。

This includes balancing investment spend, capacity, program profitability, and consumer preferences.

這包括平衡投資支出、產能、專案獲利能力和消費者偏好。

This is clearly impacting electrification programs, and we are starting to see a renewed interest in ICE and hybrid platforms, including program extensions.

這顯然影響了電氣化項目，我們開始看到人們對內燃機和混合動力平台（包括項目擴展）重新產生了興趣。

As for our own investments, we will invest as needed to maintain our product and technology leadership across multiple propulsion systems.

至於我們自己的投資，我們將根據需要進行投資，以保持我們在多個推進系統的產品和技術領先地位。

AAM is very focused on profitable growth and achieving adequate returns.

AAM 非常注重獲利成長並實現足夠的回報。

Onto our financial guidance.

關於我們的財務指導。

With three completed, we are adjusting our full year sales, EBITDA, and adjusted free cash flow ranges as follows: AAM is now targeting sales of $6.1 billion to $6.15 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $715 million to $745 million, and adjusted free cash flow of approximately $200 million to $220 million.

三項完成後，我們將調整全年銷售額、EBITDA 和調整後自由現金流範圍，如下：AAM 目前的目標銷售額為61 億美元至61.5 億美元，調整後EBITDA 約為7.15 億美元至7.45 億美元，調整後自由現金流範圍約2億至2.2億美元。

The tightening reflects our latest assumption of North American industry production and volume output of certain platforms, including those that are in launch.

這種緊縮反映了我們對北美工業生產和某些平台（包括正在推出的平台）產量的最新假設。

In addition, we continue to monitor overall industry inventories, which have been rising.

此外，我們繼續監控整體行業庫存，該庫存一直在上升。

We are also monitoring transaction prices, incentive spending and overall interest rates.

我們也監控交易價格、激勵支出和整體利率。

To conclude my remarks, and as I have communicated previously, our aim is on the future, and we will continue to drive our efforts towards: securing our primary legacy business, which is substantially complete; generating strong free cash flow, which we continue to deliver; strengthening our balance sheet, and we've been disciplined about paying down debt; advancing our electrification portfolio, and we've demonstrated incremental wins in that space; and positioning AAM for continued profitable growth.

最後，正如我之前所傳達的那樣，我們的目標是未來，我們將繼續努力：確保基本完成的主要遺留業務；產生強勁的自由現金流，我們將繼續提供這種現金流；加強我們的資產負債表，並且我們在償還債務方面一直遵守紀律；推進我們的電氣化產品組合，我們已經在該領域展示了漸進式的勝利；並使 AAM 實現持續獲利成長。

Let me now turn the call over to our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Christopher May, for the financial details.

現在讓我將電話轉給我們的執行副總裁兼財務長 Christopher May，以了解財務詳細資訊。

Chris?

克里斯？

Thank you, David, and good morning to everyone.

謝謝你，大衛，祝大家早安。

I will cover the financial details of our third quarter 2024 results with you today.

今天我將向您介紹我們 2024 年第三季業績的財務細節。

And I will also refer to our earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments.

我也會參考我們的收益幻燈片，作為我準備好的評論的一部分。

So let's go ahead and begin with sales.

那麼就讓我們從銷售開始吧。

In the third quarter of 2024, AAM sales were $1.5 billion compared to $1.55 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

2024 年第三季度，AAM 銷售額為 15 億美元，而 2023 年第三季為 15.5 億美元。

Slide 7 shows a walk between third quarter 2023 sales to third quarter 2024 sales.

投影片 7 顯示了 2023 年第三季銷售額與 2024 年第三季銷售額之間的變化。

Lower volume, mix, and other was $23 million, driven primarily by lower customer production volumes on certain vehicle programs that we support.

銷售、組合和其他方面的下降為 2300 萬美元，這主要是由於我們支持的某些車輛項目的客戶產量下降所致。

Metal market pass-throughs and FX decreased sales by approximately $19 million, and both were lower year-over-year in the quarter.

金屬市場轉手和外匯導致銷售額減少約 1,900 萬美元，本季均較去年同期下降。

Now, let's move on to profitability.

現在，讓我們轉向獲利能力。

Gross profit was $171.3 million in the third quarter of 2024 as compared to $130.6 million in the third quarter of 2023.

2024 年第三季的毛利為 1.713 億美元，而 2023 年第三季的毛利為 1.306 億美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was $174.4 million in the third quarter of 2024 versus $156.8 million in the third quarter of last year.

2024 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.744 億美元，去年第三季為 1.568 億美元。

You can see the year-over-year walk-down of adjusted EBITDA on slide 8.

您可以在投影片 8 上看到調整後 EBITDA 的年比情況。

In the quarter, lower volume, mix and other reduced our adjusted EBITDA by approximately $9 million versus the prior year.

本季度，銷售量、產品組合和其他方面的下降使我們調整後的 EBITDA 比前一年減少了約 900 萬美元。

R&D spend was higher year-over-year, based on program requirements and timing.

根據計畫要求和時間安排，研發支出較去年同期增加。

However, sequentially, it was lower by $4 million as we look to optimize our R&D expense.

然而，由於我們希望優化研發費用，因此連續減少了 400 萬美元。

And lastly, but most importantly, net inflations, performance, and other was favorable to adjusted EBITDA by $28 million, driven by a combination of operational improvements, cost controls, and elimination of a warranty charge in the prior year.

最後但也是最重要的是，在營運改善、成本控制和消除上一年保固費用的共同推動下，淨通膨、業績和其他因素有利於調整後 EBITDA 成長 2,800 萬美元。

All of these activities ultimately resulted in a stronger year-over-year margin performance on lower sales.

所有這些活動最終在銷售額下降的情況下實現了同比更強勁的利潤表現。

Let me now cover SG&A.

現在讓我介紹一下 SG&A。

SG&A expense, including R&D, in the third quarter of 2024 was $94.6 million or 6.3% of sales.

2024 年第三季的 SG&A 費用（包括研發）為 9,460 萬美元，佔銷售額的 6.3%。

This compares to $81.8 million or 5.3% of sales in the third quarter of 2023.

相比之下，2023 年第三季銷售額為 8,180 萬美元，佔銷售額的 5.3%。

The increase was primarily due to higher R&D and other costs.

這一增長主要是由於研發和其他成本增加。

AAM's R&D spending in the third quarter of 2024 was approximately $40.1 million.

AAM 2024 年第三季的研發支出約為 4,010 萬美元。

We will continue to support the needs of our business with the appropriate R&D spending levels.

我們將繼續以適當的研發支出水準來支援我們的業務需求。

That said, we anticipate R&D expense should moderate in the coming years as we adjust our spending in this area to mirror current industry powertrain trends.

也就是說，我們預計未來幾年研發費用應該會下降，因為我們會調整這一領域的支出以反映當前的產業動力總成趨勢。

Let's move on to interest and taxes.

讓我們繼續討論利息和稅收。

Net interest expense was $38.1 million in the third quarter of 2024 compared to $43.7 million in the third quarter of 2023, due in part to lower debt balances.

2024 年第三季的淨利息支出為 3,810 萬美元，而 2023 年第三季為 4,370 萬美元，部分原因是債務餘額減少。

In addition, we paid down approximately $50 million of principal on our 2026 senior notes in the third quarter, which we announced previously, and we'll continue to opportunistically pay down our debt.

此外，我們在第三季償還了我們先前宣布的 2026 年優先票據的約 5,000 萬美元本金，並且我們將繼續機會主義地償還我們的債務。

In the third quarter of 2024, we recorded an income tax benefit of $12.1 million compared to $2 million in the third quarter of 2023.

2024 年第三季度，我們的所得稅優惠為 1,210 萬美元，而 2023 年第三季為 200 萬美元。

For the full year, we now expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 25% to 30%.

對於全年，我們現在預計調整後的有效稅率約為 25% 至 30%。

This reduction in overall rate versus previous estimates is primarily due to the favorable tax benefit incurred in the third quarter.

總體稅率與先前估計相比的下降主要是由於第三季產生的有利稅收優惠。

We also expect cash taxes of approximately $50 million to $55 million this year.

我們也預計今年的現金稅約為 5,000 萬至 5,500 萬美元。

Taking all these sales and cost drivers into account, our GAAP net income was $10 million or $0.08 per share in the third quarter of 2024 compared to a net loss of $17.4 million or a loss of $0.15 per share in the third quarter of 2023.

考慮到所有這些銷售和成本驅動因素，我們2024 年第三季的GAAP 淨利為1,000 萬美元，即每股虧損0.08 美元，而2023 年第三季的淨虧損為1,740 萬美元，即每股虧損0.15 美元。

Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release, was $0.20 per share in the third quarter of 2024 compared to an adjusted loss of $0.11 per share for the third quarter of 2023.

2024 年第三季調整後每股盈餘（不包括我們收益新聞稿中提到的項目的影響）為 0.20 美元，而 2023 年第三季調整後每股虧損為 0.11 美元。

Let's now move to cash flow and the balance sheet.

現在讓我們轉向現金流和資產負債表。

Net cash provided by operating activities for the third quarter of 2024 was $143.6 million.

2024 年第三季經營活動提供的淨現金為 1.436 億美元。

Capital expenditures, net of proceeds from the sale of property, plant, and equipment, for the third quarter of 2024 were $72.9 million.

2024 年第三季的資本支出（扣除出售房產、廠房和設備的收益）為 7,290 萬美元。

Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the third quarter of 2024 were $3.9 million.

2024 年第三季重組和收購相關活動的現金支付為 390 萬美元。

Reflecting the impact of these activities, AAM's adjusted free cash flow was $75 million in the third quarter of 2024.

反映這些活動的影響的是，AAM 2024 年第三季調整後的自由現金流為 7,500 萬美元。

From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the quarter with net debt of $2.1 billion and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $758 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 2.8 times at September 30.

從債務槓桿角度來看，本季末我們的淨負債為 21 億美元，LTM 調整後 EBITDA 為 7.58 億美元，計算出截至 9 月 30 日的淨槓桿率為 2.8 倍。

Our focus is to continue to strengthen the balance sheet by reducing debt.

我們的重點是透過減少債務來繼續強化資產負債表。

AAM ended the quarter with total available liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion, consisting of available cash and borrowing capacity on AAM's global credit facilities.

截至本季末，AAM 的可用流動性總額約為 15 億美元，其中包括可用現金和 AAM 全球信貸安排的借貸能力。

I also want to provide some additional insight into the sale of our commercial vehicle axle operations in India that David mentioned and that we announced earlier in the third quarter.

我還想就大衛提到的以及我們在第三季早些時候宣布的印度商用車車軸業務的銷售提供一些額外的見解。

The sales price is $65 million and is expected to close before the end of the year, pending regulatory approval.

售價 6500 萬美元，預計今年底前完成，尚待監管部門批准。

This operation generated approximately $156 million in sales in the last 12 months as of June 30 and approximately $10 million in adjusted EBITDA for the same period.

截至 6 月 30 日的過去 12 個月內，該業務的銷售額約為 1.56 億美元，同期調整後 EBITDA 約為 1,000 萬美元。

Upon closing, this transaction will be both margin and leverage favorable to AAM.

交割後，本次交易的保證金和槓桿均對 AAM 有利。

So, as David said, this is a good deal for us.

因此，正如大衛所說，這對我們來說是一筆划算的交易。

As for the full year outlook, on slide 5, we are adjusting our revenue, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow outlooks.

至於全年展望，在幻燈片 5 中，我們正在調整我們的收入、調整後的 EBITDA 和調整後的自由現金流前景。

For sales, our target range is at $6.1 billion to $6.15 billion for 2024.

對於銷售額，我們的目標範圍是 2024 年 61 億美元至 61.5 億美元。

This sales target is based upon a North America production of approximately 1.5 million units at the midpoint.

該銷售目標基於北美產量中位數約 150 萬台。

As you all know, our sales targets are based upon current customer production, production of certain key platforms, launch schedules, and the macro business environment.

眾所周知，我們的銷售目標是基於當前客戶產量、某些關鍵平台的產量、上市時間表和宏觀商業環境。

From an EBITDA perspective, we tightened our full year range to $715 million to $745 million, previously $705 million to $755 million.

從 EBITDA 角度來看，我們將全年範圍收緊至 7.15 億至 7.45 億美元，之前為 7.05 億至 7.55 億美元。

Our adjusted free cash flow target is $200 million to $220 million, and we anticipate CapEx to be approximately the same as stated before at 4% of sales.

我們調整後的自由現金流目標為 2 億至 2.2 億美元，我們預期資本支出與先前所述大致相同，佔銷售額的 4%。

Let me provide you with some additional color on our guidance.

讓我為您提供一些關於我們的指導的額外資訊。

According to third-party estimates, the GM T1XX platform is forecasted at approximately 1.4 million units for the full year, which continues to represent the midpoint of our guidance range.

根據第三方估計，通用汽車 T1XX 平台預計全年銷量約為 140 萬輛，這仍然是我們指導範圍的中點。

Our implied quarterly cadence of sales and profitability also reflects the timing of the launches of two of our top programs, some early fourth quarter customer downtime related to supply chain disruptions due to the impact of hurricanes and overall volume seasonality.

我們隱含的季度銷售和獲利節奏也反映了我們兩個頂級專案的啟動時間，第四季初的一些客戶停機與由於颶風和整體銷售季節性影響而導致的供應鏈中斷有關。

Putting all this together, AAM delivered year-over-year performance for the third quarter, while effectively managing critical launches.

綜上所述，AAM 在第三季實現了同比業績，同時有效管理了關鍵的發布。

On a year-to-date perspective, we continue to deliver year-over-year margin improvement.

從今年迄今的角度來看，我們的利潤率持續實現年比改善。

We have reduced our outstanding debt by nearly $100 million and continue to win new business.

我們已將未償債務減少了近 1 億美元，並繼續贏得新業務。

That said, thank you for your time and participation on the call today.

儘管如此，還是感謝您抽出時間參加今天的電話會議。

I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David Lim, so we can start the Q&A.

我要在這裡停下來，將電話轉回給 David Lim，這樣我們就可以開始問答了。

David?

大衛？

Thank you, Chris and David.

謝謝你們，克里斯和大衛。

We have reserved some time to take your questions.

我們預留了一些時間來回答您的問題。

I would ask that you please limit your questions to no more than two.

我想請您將問題限制在不超過兩個。

So, at this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions you may have.

因此，此時，請隨時回答您可能有的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Ryan Brinkman, JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）Ryan Brinkman，摩根大通。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Maybe starting with the comment on slide 5, I see that your outlook is predicated upon North America light vehicle production of 15.5 million, so seemingly in keeping with S&P Global Mobility's outlook for 15.48 million.

也許從幻燈片 5 上的評論開始，我看到您的前景是基於北美輕型汽車產量 1550 萬輛，因此似乎與 S&P Global Mobility 的 1548 萬輛前景一致。

Just wanted to check if you think there might be some downside risk to that, given that some other suppliers, Lear in particular, assumed below S&P production levels in 4Q, primarily in Europe, but also in North America.

只是想檢查一下您是否認為這可能存在一些下行風險，因為其他一些供應商（尤其是李爾）假設第四季度的產量低於標準普爾的產量水平，主要是在歐洲，但也在北美。

I know you're less exposed to Europe.

我知道你較少接觸歐洲。

There's some caution around some of the Stellantis programs, I think where you might have some exposure.

我認為您可能會接觸到一些 Stellantis 項目，因此需要謹慎對待。

Just what's the latest that you're seeing in terms of this evolving Detroit 3 inventory correction actions so far here in 4Q?

到目前為止，您在第四季度看到的底特律 3 號庫存修正行動的最新情況是什麼？

Yeah.

是的。

Good morning, Ryan.

早安，瑞安。

This is Chris.

這是克里斯。

I'll take that question.

我來回答這個問題。

Yes, our macro guidance is predicated upon the number you referred to that you see in our press release.

是的，我們的宏觀指導是基於您在我們的新聞稿中看到的提到的數字。

As you know, as we build our forecast also for the fourth quarter, we do take into consideration current customer releases and production schedules that we are experiencing, either in October or what we project over about the next six to eight weeks.

如您所知，當我們對第四季度進行預測時，我們確實考慮了當前的客戶發布和我們正在經歷的生產計劃，無論是 10 月份還是我們預計未來六到八週的情況。

From our perspective, as you know, a couple of our large programs are going through some critical launches, and those -- continue to monitor those volumes very closely.

從我們的角度來看，如您所知，我們的幾個大型專案正在經歷一些關鍵的啟動，並且這些專案將繼續非常密切地監控這些數量。

So they're generally down and ramping up as they go through these launches.

因此，在這些發布過程中，它們通常會先下降再上升。

And also, from a macro perspective, we do see some intermittent downtime, but we try to reflect those in our current schedule estimates and bake that into our current guidance.

而且，從宏觀角度來看，我們確實看到了一些間歇性停機，但我們試圖在當前的時間表估計中反映這些情況，並將其納入我們當前的指導中。

So between here and the end of the year, of course, the year is not over, but we are looking at customer schedules and accounting for that impact that we see on the ground, not just the macro assumption.

因此，從現在到年底，當然，這一年還沒有結束，但我們正在研究客戶時間表並考慮我們在實地看到的影響，而不僅僅是宏觀假設。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And then, lastly for me, maybe just to follow up on some of your comments about the sale of the commercial vehicle axle operations in India.

最後，對我來說，也許只是跟進您關於出售印度商用車車軸業務的一些評論。

Just wanted to check whether that includes the totality of your business in India, if anything remains.

只是想檢查一下這是否包括您在印度的全部業務（如果還有的話）。

I know you were excited about some of those light commercial vehicle e-Beam awards there.

我知道您對其中的一些輕型商用車電子束獎感到興奮。

Presumably, that's sold as well.

估計這個也賣了。

Does anything remain?

還剩下什麼嗎？

And then, are there other operations, whether commercial vehicle operations globally -- I know you've got a small business in the UK or Scotland, right?

然後，是否還有其他業務，無論是全球商用車業務——我知道您在英國或蘇格蘭有一家小型企業，對吧？

Anything else globally, maybe even beyond commercial vehicles?

除了商用車之外，全球還有其他什麼嗎？

Was this something opportunistic?

這是投機取巧的事嗎？

Did somebody come to you?

有人來找你嗎？

Or were you kind of thinking we're looking for ways to improve our margin profile and financial leverage and there could be other avenues to doing that as well?

或者您認為我們正在尋找改善利潤狀況和財務槓桿的方法，還有其他方法可以做到這一點？

Yes.

是的。

So, Ryan, this is David.

所以，瑞安，這是大衛。

To address your question, we're only selling two facilities in India of the three manufacturing facilities that we have.

為了解決您的問題，我們在印度擁有三個製造工廠，其中僅出售兩個工廠。

We're selling the Pune and the Chennai facilities.

我們正在出售浦那和欽奈的設施。

We're holding on to our facility in Chakan.

我們將保留查坎的工廠。

The Pune and Chennai facilities were dedicated to commercial vehicle applications.

浦那和金奈工廠致力於商用車應用。

The Chakan facility does a lot of other work for light vehicle-type systems.

查坎工廠也為輕型車輛類型系統做了許多其他工作。

We've just made a strategic decision as an organization to concentrate our efforts more on the light vehicle and passenger car, light truck, and SUV and van side and less on the commercial vehicle space.

作為一個組織，我們剛剛做出了一項戰略決策，將我們的精力更多地集中在輕型汽車和乘用車、輕型卡車、SUV 和貨車方面，而不是商用車領域。

Clearly, it helps us from a financial standpoint, improves our financial liquidity, as we talked about, and just allows us to concentrate our resources, both human capital and financial capital, in the light vehicle space, as I mentioned.

顯然，從財務角度來看，它可以幫助我們，提高我們的財務流動性，正如我們所談到的，正如我所提到的，它使我們能夠將人力資本和金融資本等資源集中在輕型車輛領域。

We still will maintain a large presence in India as it relates to our business and technical office there.

我們仍將在印度保持大量業務，因為這與我們在那裡的業務和技術辦公室有關。

So we're still committed to the Indian market.

所以我們仍然致力於印度市場。

But at the same time, our real focus is going to be on light vehicle systems.

但同時，我們真正的重點將是輕型車輛系統。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Thanks, Ryan.

謝謝，瑞安。

John Murphy, Bank of America.

約翰‧墨菲，美國銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

I'm going to ask the -- sort of the obvious question about the implied in the fourth quarter of about $142 million in EBITDA at the midpoint.

我要問一個關於第四季中位數約 1.42 億美元 EBITDA 的明顯問題。

And Chris, I think you kind of just guided to this in some of the schedules and stuff.

克里斯，我認為你只是在一些時間表和內容中引導了這一點。

But is the bulk of this the Ram HD changeover and some downtime at GM trucks that's really kind of the sequential pressure point?

但其中大部分是 Ram HD 更換和通用汽車卡車的一些停機時間，這真的是連續壓力點嗎？

Or are there other things that are going on?

還是還有其他事情正在發生？

Yeah.

是的。

No, I think you captured it actually with your comments.

不，我認為您通過評論實際上抓住了這一點。

Obviously, North America production overall quarter-to-quarter, as you know, is down.

顯然，如您所知，北美的整體產量逐季度下降。

That impacts our component side of the business.

這影響了我們業務的組件方面。

We do have a couple of large programs in launch as they're kind of ramping up to their full volumes through the back half of this year, and then hopefully, will exit into next year quite strong.

我們確實有幾個大型項目正在啟動，因為它們將在今年下半年達到全部產量，然後希望明年能夠強勁退出。

You do have your normal seasonality, as you know, in the fourth quarter.

如您所知，第四季度確實存在正常的季節性。

But also, I will point, the beginning of October started a little slow.

但我還要指出的是，十月初開始得有點慢。

There were some supply chain bumps associated with some of the weather or hurricane events that we experienced here in North America.

我們在北美經歷的一些天氣或颶風事件導致了供應鏈的一些波動。

That's how I would construct how you think about the fourth quarter.

這就是我如何建立你對第四季的看法。

Okay.

好的。

And then, just a follow-up.

然後，只是後續行動。

That leads to two very different stories between the first three quarters and the fourth quarter on EBITDA margin.

這導致前三個季度和第四季的 EBITDA 利潤率出現兩個截然不同的情況。

You're looking at something that's about 12.5% for the first three quarters and then about 10% for the fourth quarter.

你會發現前三個季度的成長率約為 12.5%，第四季約為 10%。

So, as we think about 2025, and I doubt you want to go there in detail, but as we think about the walk-off point for 2025 numbers, is the first three quarters, at this mid-12% EBITDA margin, much more representative of how we should be thinking about sort of the base to walk off for 2025?

因此，當我們考慮 2025 年時，我懷疑您是否想詳細了解這一點，但當我們考慮 2025 年數字的分界點時，是前三個季度，EBITDA 利潤率為 12% 左右，甚至更多代表我們應該如何考慮2025 年的出發點？

Yes.

是的。

So I understand your question.

所以我理解你的問題。

I will start with we are not providing 2025 guidance here today.

首先，我們今天不提供 2025 年指引。

However, as you think about this year into next year, I would not use the fourth quarter as a launching pad.

然而，當你考慮今年到明年時，我不會使用第四季作為發射台。

I think based upon all the different elements and production nuances of each and every quarter we experienced here in 2024, I think you need to look at the whole year in totality.

我認為，基於 2024 年我們在每個季度經歷的所有不同元素和生產細微差別，我認為您需要從整體上看待全年。

Great.

偉大的。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

And just one clarification.

只需要澄清一件事。

You're just on the Ram HD, right?

你只是使用 Ram HD，對吧？

The other RAM pickups, you guys have little to no content.

其他 RAM 拾音器，你們幾乎沒有內容。

Is that correct?

這是正確的嗎？

We do supply some components, but the primary driveline systems, we are on the HD platform, so the 2500 series and higher.

我們確實提供一些組件，但主要的傳動系統，我們是在 HD 平台上，所以是 2500 系列及更高版本。

And those inventories are tight.

而且這些庫存很緊張。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Joe Spak, UBS.

喬·斯帕克，瑞銀集團。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

David, I know we're not going to talk about '25, but I did want to sort of touch on one portion that I know you'll update next quarter, which is -- which relates to sort of the backlog because it doesn't seem like maybe there's very many major awards being awarded right now.

大衛，我知道我們不會談論 25 年，但我確實想談談我知道你會在下個季度更新的一部分，這與積壓工作有關，因為它不似乎現在頒發的主要獎項並不多。

But I know you won some stuff that you highlighted today.

但我知道你贏得了你今天強調的一些東西。

But you did also mention some program extensions.

但您也提到了一些程式擴充功能。

So I think you normally consider about $100 million to $200 million of attrition.

所以我認為你通常會考慮大約 1 億到 2 億美元的損耗。

If we consider both those factors, which is, new awards might be a little bit constrained, but attrition is a little bit lower, from a net basis, do you expect much of a difference from what we've seen over the past few years?

如果我們考慮這兩個因素，即新獎項可能會受到一些限制，但從淨額來看，人員流失率會稍低一些，您預計與我們過去幾年所看到的情況會有很大差異嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Well, Joe, good morning.

好吧，喬，早安。

Let me just say this, I'll start on the attrition side.

讓我這麼說吧，我將從消耗方面開始。

Typically, we attrit somewhere between $100 million and $200 million a year.

通常，我們每年消耗 1 億至 2 億美元。

This year was a little bit on the higher side.

今年的情況有點偏高。

In the future, we expect it to be a little bit more on the lower side, but within that range.

未來，我們預計它會稍微低一點，但在這個範圍內。

So that's point number one.

這是第一點。

Point number two is, we do not contemplate extensions in our new business backlog.

第二點是，我們不考慮擴展新的業務積壓。

We consider that to be the base business.

我們認為這是基礎業務。

But obviously, that's good for our business overall.

但顯然，這對我們的整體業務有利。

But we do have several customers that are talking to us about contract extensions right now, which is, like I said, positive.

但我們現在確實有幾個客戶正在與我們討論合約延期問題，正如我所說，這是積極的。

And then, as it relates to new business side of things, as I mentioned before in previous calls, there's an air pocket kind of going through the industry right now as OEMs are relooking at their long-range product plans, re-timing, re-scoping their programs.

然後，由於它與事物的新業務方面相關，正如我之前在之前的電話會議中提到的那樣，隨著原始設備製造商正在重新考慮其長期產品計劃、重新計時、重新調整，整個行業正在出現一種氣穴。

AAM is no different than any of the other suppliers.

AAM 與其他供應商沒有什麼不同。

We'll all be impacted by that.

我們都會受到影響。

It's just a matter of when they come forward with new business opportunities.

這只是他們何時出現新商機的問題。

The most important thing for us is, we've got the majority of our current business locked up.

對我們來說最重要的是，我們目前的大部分業務都已鎖定。

Now, we're talking about extensions on that business.

現在，我們正在討論該業務的擴展。

We're still winning incremental programs, but to your point, not super large programs, but incremental programs.

我們仍在贏得增量項目，但就你的觀點而言，不是超大型項目，而是增量項目。

But we are seeing new opportunities present themselves that we weren't seeing in the past year on ICE and hybrid programs, in addition to the electrification programs that we were previously quoting on.

但除了我們之前引用的電氣化項目之外，我們還看到了去年在內燃機和混合動力項目上未曾見過的新機會。

So hopefully, that addresses your question.

希望這能解決您的問題。

Yeah.

是的。

And maybe one quick follow-up and maybe it's a definitional thing.

也許是一個快速的後續行動，也許這是一個定義性的事情。

I just want to understand -- like I understand you're not baking in sort of program extensions, but if that were to occur, your attrition would go lower, right?

我只是想了解 - 就像我了解您並沒有烘焙某種程序擴展一樣，但如果發生這種情況，您的人員流失會降低，對吧？

Because when the program ends, is it not in that attrition number?

因為當計畫結束時，不就在那個流失數字中了嗎？

Correct.

正確的。

Those programs would extend, your attrition would drag down.

這些計劃會延長，你的人員流失會減少。

Okay.

好的。

We're on the same page.

我們在同一頁上。

Okay.

好的。

And then, Chris, I think one of the things that investors are starting to sort of think about here with -- post the election is tariffs, obviously, but also steel prices.

然後，克里斯，我認為投資者在大選後開始考慮的事情之一顯然是關稅，以及鋼鐵價格。

Can you just remind us what happened last time with some of the steel actions globally and how that impacted you, if at all, and how you are protected or mitigated on that?

您能否提醒我們上次全球範圍內的一些鋼鐵行動發生了什麼？

Yes.

是的。

So, our commodity business is -- it's really sort of two elements.

所以，我們的商品業務其實是由兩個要素組成的。

We have pieces that are based upon the commodity element or the inputs to steel and other items that we purchase.

我們有基於商品元素或我們購買的鋼鐵和其他物品的投入的零件。

As you know, we generally have contractual arrangements with our customers to pass up and down those commodity changes, protects us 80% to 90% of those changes, either a pass-up of additional cost or pass-up of an additional save, depending how those commodities move.

如您所知，我們通常與客戶簽訂合約安排來傳遞這些商品變更，保護我們 80% 到 90% 的這些變更，要么傳遞額外成本，要么傳遞額外節省，具體取決於這些商品如何移動。

As it relates to some of the other components, whether it's aluminum or steel, we did experience some tariff elements back in the 2017, '18, '19 time frame.

由於它與其他一些組件相關，無論是鋁還是鋼，我們確實在 2017 年、18 年、19 年時間範圍內經歷了一些關稅因素。

But as you know, part of our philosophy has been to buy and source in the regions for which we produce, which helps mitigate some of the impact of the tariffs specifically, though not completely immune to that.

但如您所知，我們的部分理念是在我們生產的地區進行採購和採購，這有助於減輕關稅的一些具體影響，儘管不能完全免受關稅的影響。

We are a global supplier, and we do source globally.

我們是一家全球供應商，我們在全球範圍內進行採購。

But we do try to focus on that regionalization for sourcing.

但我們確實嘗試將重點放在採購的區域化上。

So that does insulate us from some of that activity.

因此，這確實使我們免受某些活動的影響。

Where you did see some pressures in terms of like base prices increases because others had tariffs, I think we are generally able to mitigate a lot of that through the scale of our buy and negotiations with our supply base.

如果你確實看到一些壓力，例如因為其他國家徵收關稅而導致基本價格上漲，我認為我們通常能夠透過我們的購買規模以及與供應基地的談判來減輕很多壓力。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks for that reminder.

謝謝你的提醒。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

Dan Levy, Barclays.

丹·利維，巴克萊銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I wanted to ask about the EBITDA bridge in the third quarter, $28 million of positive performance, inflation.

我想問一下第三季的 EBITDA 橋樑，即 2800 萬美元的積極業績和通貨膨脹。

Maybe you could just unpack some of the benefits there.

也許您可以從中了解一些好處。

I know there's a point here of $13 million of favorable warranty, but still even absent that, a pretty good result.

我知道這裡有 1300 萬美元的優惠保修，但即使沒有這一點，也是一個相當不錯的結果。

And then maybe you could just remind us of sort of what is left in terms of inflation unwind benefit

然後也許你可以提醒我們通膨放鬆收益還剩下什麼

[eventually]?

[最終]？

Yeah, certainly.

是的，當然。

I'll take that here, Dan.

我會把它拿在這裡，丹。

This is Chris.

這是克里斯。

So if you take the $28 million, you're spot on, one of the largest chunks in there was a year-over-year $13 million item related to our warranty, which leaves us still with $15 million of sizable year-over-year performance.

因此，如果您拿走這 2800 萬美元，那麼您就對了，其中最大的一筆是與我們的保固相關的同比 1300 萬美元的項目，這使得我們仍然有 1500 萬美元的同比可觀金額表現。

Generally speaking, that performance was split between both of our business units, meaning the driveline and the metal forming groups.

一般來說，這項業績由我們的兩個業務部門（即傳動系統部門和金屬成型部門）分配。

We saw a very concentrated effort to continue to have -- and we talked about this, probably, each of the last four quarters -- continuing to heavily focus and double down on productivity and performance enhancements in our metal form group.

我們看到我們非常集中地努力繼續——我們可能在過去四個季度的每個季度都討論過這一點——繼續高度關注並加倍努力提高我們金屬成型團隊的生產力和性能。

You're seeing those dollars flow through, similar with the driveline as well.

你會看到這些資金流過，傳動系統也類似。

And it was really across the spectrum of all their cost elements.

這確實涵蓋了所有成本要素。

And I think this -- hopefully, that addresses your question for the bridge.

我認為這——希望能夠解決你對這座橋的問題。

Yes.

是的。

And then, just in terms of sort of any remaining low-hanging fruit on perhaps whether it's metal forming underperformance or other inflationary items that you're recovering on?

然後，就任何剩餘的容易實現的目標而言，也許是金屬成型表現不佳，還是您正在恢復的其他通膨項目？

Yeah.

是的。

So let's -- I'll do that in reverse.

那麼讓我們吧——我會反過來做。

In terms of the inflationary items, we mentioned, I think it was last quarter's call, that we generally have most of our negotiations with our customers done.

就通膨項目而言，我們提到，我認為這是上個季度的電話，我們通常已經完成了與客戶的大部分談判。

So from an inflationary either recovery or incurrence, I think we're pretty much set for this year.

因此，無論是通膨復甦還是發生，我認為今年我們已經基本做好了準備。

We're in a pretty good spot.

我們處於一個非常好的位置。

You may recall last year, a lot of that was backweighted in the fourth quarter, some of those recoveries.

您可能還記得去年，其中許多都是在第四季度回減的，其中一些是復甦的。

We've concluded that sort of here midyear, and I think we're in a really good position as a company from that perspective.

我們在年中就得出了這樣的結論，我認為從這個角度來看，我們作為一家公司處於非常有利的位置。

As it relates to performance, our expectation, we talked about this a year ago, is to continue to drive performance improvements, especially on our metal forming operations.

由於它與性能相關，我們的期望（我們一年前談到過這一點）是繼續推動性能改進，特別是在我們的金屬成型業務方面。

We've seen sequential improvements there, subject to volume puts and takes, but seen sequential improvements in metal forming.

我們已經看到了那裡的連續改進，取決於產量和產量，但也看到了金屬成型的連續改進。

Our view -- our belief is, we continue to have performance enhancements to drive that business into further productivity and productivity over the next couple of quarters into next year as well.

我們的觀點 - 我們的信念是，我們將繼續提高績效，以推動該業務在接下來的幾個季度甚至明年進一步提高生產力和生產力。

So we expect continued performance in that group.

因此，我們預計該組將繼續表現出色。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

As a follow-up, with this environment and I think the expectation by some that the election outcome could drive an extended ICE tail, maybe you could give us a sense of what that means for the resource outlays at American Axle.

作為後續行動，在這種環境下，我認為有些人對選舉結果可能會推動 ICE 尾部延長的預期，也許您可以讓我們了解這對 American Axle 的資源支出意味著什麼。

You had talked a little bit to some reduction in R&D.

您剛才談到了研發的一些削減。

What does this say about the CapEx trends, et cetera?

這對資本支出趨勢等有何說明？

Just anything on the resource outline would be helpful.

資源大綱中的任何內容都會有所幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Dan, I would think about it this way, especially as programs could potentially be extended or additional vehicle platforms may be launching on ICE or hybrid that, that plays very well to us.

丹，我會這樣考慮，特別是當項目可能會擴展或額外的車輛平台可能會在 ICE 或混合動力車上推出時，這對我們來說非常有利。

As you know, we have a strong installed capability and capacity inside of our factories that will allow us then to minimize capital investment to support those programs or extensions.

如您所知，我們工廠內部擁有強大的安裝能力和產能，這將使我們能夠最大限度地減少支持這些計劃或擴展的資本投資。

From an R&D perspective, as I mentioned in some of my prepared comments, we would expect some of that R&D spend to moderate based upon all in on electrification development to a more balanced portfolio, of which, we have a very strong footing in both the ICE and hybrid applications here today.

從研發角度來看，正如我在一些準備好的評論中提到的那樣，我們預計部分研發支出將在電氣化發展的基礎上進行適度調整，以形成更平衡的投資組合，其中，我們在今天在這裡介紹ICE 和混合應用。

So, we would see some additional benefits on the R&D side as well.

因此，我們也會在研發方面看到一些額外的好處。

So punch line, benefit from an installed capacity that can support a lot of capability and production on ICE and hybrid today without a lot of new investment dollars to drive that further and then also some benefits on the R&D side.

因此，有趣的是，受益於裝置容量，可以支援當今內燃機和混合動力車的大量能力和生產，而無需大量新的投資資金來進一步推動這一目標，然後在研發方面也有一些好處。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Tom Narayan, RBC.

湯姆·納拉揚，加拿大皇家銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Thanks for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

Two follow-ups to stuff that's already been asked.

對已經被問過的事情的兩個後續行動。

The first one, I just want to confirm, if I'm looking at that Q4 implied versus Q3, except for the hurricane -- I just wanted to be sure -- so all these items, the platforms, the production cuts that you already knew about, was this already known that the dynamic that Q4 would be kind of more depressed versus Q3, I guess, except the hurricane?

第一個，我只是想確認一下，如果我看的是第四季度與第三季度的情況，除了颶風——我只是想確定一下——所以所有這些項目、平台、減產都是你已經知道的我想，除了颶風之外，第四季的動態會比第三季更加沮喪，這是否已經知道？

Or was there something new that's kind of changed when you gave -- as opposed to when you gave your guidance in Q2?

或者，當您給予指導時，與您在第二季度給予指導時相比，是否有一些新的變化？

Yeah.

是的。

Tom, this is Chris.

湯姆，這是克里斯。

Yes.

是的。

What I would tell you is clearly a couple of pieces to that.

我要告訴你的顯然是其中的一些內容。

Certainly, there's been some puts and takes with the launches on our two top programs, that being the Ram and the GM midsize crossover vehicle.

當然，我們的兩個頂級項目（Ram 和通用汽車中型跨界車）的推出也帶來了一些變化。

As they've gone through launches, some of those have kind of counterbalanced between third and fourth quarter.

隨著它們的發布，其中一些在第三季和第四季之間取得了平衡。

And we've seen some choppiness a little bit in terms of production schedules that we didn't experience or expect 90 days ago.

我們在生產計劃方面也看到了一些波動，這是我們在 90 天前沒有經歷過或沒有預料到的。

We've seen that inside of the fourth quarter as well for a little bit, as well as some -- what appears to be maybe some inventory management from the OEMs.

我們在第四季度也看到了這一點，以及一些——這似乎是原始設備製造商的一些庫存管理。

But this is a pretty dynamic environment from a production standpoint.

但從生產的角度來看，這是一個非常動態的環境。

It's not as crazy, I would say, as it was a year or two ago, but there's still a fair amount of variability here that we continue to navigate and learn on a weekly basis at some level.

我想說，這並不像一兩年前那麼瘋狂，但這裡仍然存在相當多的變化，我們在某種程度上繼續每週導航和學習。

But I think we've been doing a pretty good job managing our way through it.

但我認為我們在管理方面做得非常好。

Okay.

好的。

And then, a follow-up on the tariff question.

然後是關稅問題的後續行動。

Maybe you could remind us what happened in 2018, 2019 on an OEM exposure level.

也許您可以提醒我們 2018 年、2019 年在 OEM 曝光等級上發生了什麼。

On one level, you're more exposed to US.

一方面，您更接觸美國。

D3 should be a benefit potentially.

D3 應該是一個潛在的好處。

But then, you had called out today winning business from a European luxury OEM and a Chinese OEM.

但是，您今天已經贏得了歐洲奢侈品原始設備製造商和中國原始設備製造商的業務。

So to what -- maybe you can remind us how that affected based on OEM exposure in the last round of this.

那麼，也許您可以提醒我們，根據上一輪 OEM 曝光情況，這會產生怎樣的影響。

And also, how this impacts your strategy to conquest OEM business?

另外，這對您征服 OEM 業務的策略有何影響？

Does it make you favor more domestic OEM targets?

這是否讓您青睞更多的國內OEM目標？

Or -- yeah, those are the questions.

或者——是的，這些就是問題。

Tom, this is David Dauch.

湯姆，這是大衛道奇。

As Chris said earlier in a previous response, our policy is to buy and build local in the regions that we serve.

正如克里斯早些時候在先前的回應中所說，我們的政策是在我們服務的地區購買和建造本地產品。

We're a global company, so we do have some business being moved around the world.

我們是一家全球性公司，因此我們確實有一些業務轉移到世界各地。

But most of the time, we have it in the local region.

但大多數時候，我們在當地都有它。

Therefore, we're not as impacted by the tariff implications, especially for a company our size.

因此，我們不會受到關稅影響，特別是對於我們這樣規模的公司。

That was also reflective previously back when other tariffs were put into place.

這也反映了之前實施其他關稅時的情況。

Yeah, we had some impact, but not to the extent that you would expect a company our size to encounter.

是的，我們產生了一些影響，但沒有達到您期望我們規模的公司會遇到的程度。

And again, a lot of that goes back to our policy of buy and build local.

再說一次，這在很大程度上可以追溯到我們本地購買和建造的政策。

So we're not showing a preference towards any OEM.

因此，我們不會對任何 OEM 表現出偏好。

What we're doing is managing risk, being selective about what programs, what customers, what products we're going after to make sure that we can get the proper and adequate financial returns on the business.

我們正在做的是管理風險，選擇性地選擇我們要追求的專案、客戶和產品，以確保我們能夠獲得適當和足夠的業務財務回報。

At the same time, we're managing our overall profitable growth and trying to make sure that we can partner with those that we think are going to be able to not only identify the growth, but ultimately be able to deliver and sustain the growth from an OEM standpoint.

同時，我們正在管理我們的整體獲利成長，並努力確保我們能夠與那些我們認為不僅能夠識別成長，而且最終能夠實現和維持成長的伙伴合作。

And Tom, this is Chris.

湯姆，這是克里斯。

One other consideration you mentioned, for example, our China Axle win that we talked about here today.

您提到的另一個考慮因素，例如我們今天在這裡討論的中國車橋勝利。

We've announced a few other wins in that region in the past couple of quarters.

在過去的幾個季度中，我們已經宣佈在該地區取得了一些其他勝利。

Generally speaking, that product is for the local market.

一般來說，該產品是針對當地市場的。

So it's not exported out.

所以沒有導出。

So it's really not a tariff issue from our end OEM customer standpoint.

因此，從我們最終 OEM 客戶的角度來看，這確實不是關稅問題。

Got it.

知道了。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

James Picariello, BNP.

詹姆斯·皮卡里洛，法國巴黎銀行。

Hi, guys.

嗨，大家好。

I've got a quick one on FX and commodities.

我對外匯和大宗商品進行了快速了解。

And then, because I'm so creative, I also have a question on tariffs.

然後，因為我很有創意，所以我還有一個關於關稅的問題。

FX, commodities were a positive contributor to EBITDA in the quarter.

外匯、大宗商品為本季 EBITDA 做出了積極貢獻。

Was this driven by the peso primarily?

這主要是由比索推動的嗎？

And just how are you positioned for the fourth quarter?

您對第四季的定位如何？

Should this stay positive for you?

這對你來說應該保持正面的態度嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

So in terms of -- James, this is Chris.

所以就詹姆斯而言，這是克里斯。

In terms of the third quarter, we were favorable profitability-wise on commodities and FX, and that was split relatively equal.

就第三季而言，我們在大宗商品和外匯方面的獲利能力良好，而且分配相對平等。

Most of that did relate to the peso from an FX standpoint.

從外匯角度來看，其中大部分確實與比索有關。

Look, as you know, the peso has been -- it's moved around quite a bit this year, right?

瞧，如你所知，比索今年已經波動了很多，對吧？

It's been in its lows in the 16s, again in the 17s, now it's run up and it's kind of seeding back a little bit.

它在 16 年代曾處於低點，在 17 年代再次出現，現在已經上升，並且有所回升。

Generally speaking, if you think about our exposure on the peso, we buy MXN5 billion to MXN6 billion -- or consume MXN5 billion to MXN6 billion a year.

一般來說，如果考慮我們對比索的敞口，我們會購買 50 億至 60 億墨西哥比索，或每年消耗 50 億至 60 億墨西哥比索。

And sort of a rolling 12-month average, we're already 70% to 80% hedged on those from previous hedges.

以 12 個月滾動平均值計算，我們已經對先前的對沖進行了 70% 到 80% 的對沖。

You get a little bit of a leeway or movement with the spot.

你在這個地方有一點迴旋餘地或移動。

So could you get a little bit of continued strength if it stays at MXN20 or so from an FX rate?

那麼，如果外匯匯率維持在 MXN20 左右，您能否獲得一點持續的強勢？

Possibly.

可能吧。

But generally, the closer you get to the current day, the more we have already hedged and that's closed out.

但一般來說，距離當天越近，我們已經對沖的金額就越多，而且已經平倉了。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then, just on your Mexico footprint and the tariff potential we'll all have to navigate from here, if certain OEMs were to prioritize their US capacity to max out full frame production, right, depending on the tariff scenario, how should we consider your driveline capacity optionality and your North America footprint?

然後，就您在墨西哥的足跡和關稅潛力而言，我們都必須從這裡開始，如果某些原始設備製造商要優先考慮其美國產能以最大限度地擴大全畫幅生產，對吧，根據關稅情況，我們應該如何考慮您的傳動系統容量選擇和您的北美足跡？

If the industry does tilt toward running US plants to max utilization, do you guys have a similar lever to pull or not necessarily?

如果該行業確實傾向於最大限度地提高美國工廠的利用率，你們是否有類似的槓桿可以拉動，或者不一定？

Yeah, James.

是的，詹姆斯。

This is David.

這是大衛。

Clearly, we're trying to drive utilization of our factories to be 85% or greater at all times just from an efficiency and performance standpoint.

顯然，從效率和績效的角度來看，我們一直在努力將工廠的利用率提高到 85% 或更高。

We've built in flexibility into our North American production capability between the US and Mexico.

我們在美國和墨西哥之間的北美生產能力中建立了靈活性。

That production capability has flexibility to a certain extent.

這種生產能力具有一定的彈性。

But at the same time, if incremental investments are required in the US, then we'll evaluate that.

但同時，如果美國需要增量投資，那麼我們將進行評估。

But we're clearly going to try to leverage the installed capacity that we have to minimize CapEx going forward.

但我們顯然將嘗試利用現有的裝置容量來最大限度地減少未來的資本支出。

But we'll do what is necessary in order to protect our customers and their programs.

但我們將採取必要措施來保護我們的客戶及其計劃。

Yeah.

是的。

If I could just squeeze one quick one.

如果我能快點擠一根就好了。

Regarding the divestitures, did you share the EBITDA impact that's going out with the two India plants?

關於資產剝離，您是否分享了印度兩家工廠對 EBITDA 的影響？

Yes, James.

是的，詹姆斯。

This is Chris.

這是克里斯。

So on an LTM basis, for the last 12 months, this will be as of the second quarter, but sales were a little over $150 million. LTM

因此，以 LTM 計算，過去 12 個月的數據是截至第二季的數據，但銷售額略高於 1.5 億美元。長期TM

EBITDA is about $10 million.

EBITDA 約 1000 萬美元。

Thanks.

謝謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to David Lim for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回給 David Lim 發表閉幕詞。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Betsy, and we thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM.

謝謝 Betsy，我們感謝所有參與本次電話會議的人，並感謝您對 AAM 的興趣。

We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future.

我們當然期待將來與您交談。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。