American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, my name is Gary and I will be your conference facilitator today.

早安，我叫加里，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing second quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

此時此刻，我歡迎大家參加 American Axle & Manufacturing 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）謹此提醒，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. David Lim, Head of Investor Relations.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係主管 David Lim 先生。

Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

請繼續，林先生。

Thank you, Gary, and good morning.

謝謝你，加里，早安。

I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's second quarter earnings call.

我謹歡迎所有參加 AAM 第二季財報電話會議的人。

Earlier this morning, we released our second quarter of 2024 earnings announcement.

今天早些時候，我們發布了 2024 年第二季財報公告。

You can access this announcement on the investor relations page of our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services.

您可以透過我們網站 www.aam.com 的投資者關係頁面以及美通社服務取得本公告。

You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the investor page or our website as well.

您也可以在投資者頁面或我們的網站上找到本次電話會議的補充幻燈片。

To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1-877-344-7529, replay access code 273-3759.

若要收聽此通話的重播，您可以撥打 1-877-344-7529，重播接入碼 273-3759。

This replay will be available through August 16.

該重播將持續到 8 月 16 日。

Now, before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties which cannot be predicted or quantified and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed.

現在，在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包含評論和前瞻性陳述，這些評論和前瞻性陳述受到無法預測或量化的風險和不確定性的影響，並可能導致未來的活動和營運結果與所討論的內容有重大差異。

For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。

Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures.

此外，在這次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。

Information regarding these non-GAAP measures as well as reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information is available on our website.

有關這些非 GAAP 衡量標準的資訊以及這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與 GAAP 財務資訊的調整表可在我們的網站上取得。

Now, with that said, let me turn things over to AAMs Chairman and CEO, David Dauch.

現在，話雖如此，讓我將事情轉交給 AAM 董事長兼執行長 David Dauch。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。

Thank you for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the second quarter of 2024.

感謝您今天加入我們討論 AAM 2024 年第二季的財務表現。

Joining me on the call today is Chris May, AAM's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 AAM 執行副總裁兼財務長 Chris May。

To begin my comments, I'll review the highlights of our second quarter financial performance.

首先，我將回顧我們第二季財務表現的亮點。

Next, I'll touch on some business development news and commentary about the industry.

接下來我會講一些有關產業的業務發展新聞和評論。

After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we'll open up the call for any questions that you all may have.

在克里斯詳細介紹我們的財務表現後，我們將開始電話詢問大家可能有的任何問題。

So, let's begin with our financial highlights.

那麼，讓我們從我們的財務亮點開始。

AEM's second quarter of 2024 sales were $1.63 billion.

AEM 2024 年第二季銷售額為 16.3 億美元。

Adjusted earnings per share was $0.19 per share.

調整後每股收益為每股 0.19 美元。

Adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $208 million, or 12.8% of sales.

第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.08 億美元，佔銷售額的 12.8%。

And our adjusted free cash flow was approximately $98 million.

我們調整後的自由現金流約為 9,800 萬美元。

These solid results reflect positive contributions from volume and mix and continued operational performance.

這些堅實的業績反映了數量和組合以及持續營運績效的正面貢獻。

Let me provide you some perspectives about our performance.

讓我向您提供一些關於我們績效的看法。

Overall, volumes for the industry and for a number of our key platforms were highly sequentially -- were higher sequentially and year-over-year according to third-party forecasters.

總體而言，根據第三方預測，該行業和我們許多關鍵平台的交易量均呈連續性增長，且同比增長。

As you all know, production consistency is very important for EBITDA flow-through.

眾所周知，生產一致性對於 EBITDA 流通非常重要。

Production stability that we experienced in the first quarter continued into the beginning of the second quarter.

我們在第一季經歷的生產穩定性一直持續到第二季​​初。

That stated, we did experience periods of higher-than-anticipated downtime near the second quarter end.

也就是說，我們在第二季末確實經歷了超出預期的停機時間。

We will closely monitor this trend in the second half of the year.

我們將在下半年密切關注這一趨勢。

On a positive note, in some cases, customers were providing more advanced shutdown notices given the AAM time to make necessary cost adjustments.

積極的一面是，在某些情況下，鑑於 AAM 有時間進行必要的成本調整，客戶會提供更提前的關閉通知。

From an operational standpoint, we are making good overall progress as seen by our results.

從營運的角度來看，從結果來看，我們整體上取得了良好的進展。

The team continues to work diligently on driving positive operational performance and delivering AAM's high standards of operational excellence.

該團隊將繼續努力推動積極的營運績效並實現 AAM 的高標準卓越營運。

I'm also happy to share that we have concluded most of our commercial discussions related to inflation for the year.

我還很高興地告訴大家，我們已經結束了今年與通膨相關的大部分商業討論。

We do have some minor open discussions remaining, but generally, this is in the rear-view mirror for us here in 2024.

我們確實還有一些小小的公開討論，但總的來說，到 2024 年，這一切都會在後視鏡中出現。

Overall, a good, solid, and positive quarter for Team AAM.

總體而言，對於 AAM 團隊來說，這是一個良好、穩定且積極的季度。

Let me talk about some business updates, which you can see on slide four of our presentation deck.

讓我談談一些業務更新，您可以在我們簡報的第四張投影片上看到這些更新。

We are very pleased to announce that AAM has been awarded business to supply components for a global European OEM's modular vehicle platform that will support a multitude of propulsion systems, including internal combustion, hybrid, and electric vehicle derivatives, highlighting certain of our products that are agnostic to powertrain applications.

我們非常高興地宣布，AAM 已獲得為全球歐洲OEM 的模組化車輛平台供應組件的業務，該平台將支援多種推進系統，包括內燃機、混合動力和電動車衍生系統，這凸顯了我們的某些產品與動力總成應用無關。

Furthermore, AAM will supply a luxury European OEM with helical drive gears for electric drives for a future EV program.

此外，AAM 還將向一家歐洲豪華 OEM 供應用於未來電動車專案的電力驅動的斜齒輪傳動齒輪。

This is a nice incremental win for our components business and plays to our strategy of providing comprehensive approach in both component and full systems and providing OEMs with strong optionality for their respective EV powertrain needs.

這對我們的零件業務來說是一個很好的增量勝利，也符合我們在零件和完整系統中提供全面方法的策略，並為原始設備製造商提供了滿足其各自電動車動力總成需求的強大選擇。

We believe our strategy well positions AAM to be the supplier of choice.

我們相信我們的策略使 AAM 成為首選供應商。

In addition, AAM was recently awarded business to provide traditional axles for a next-generation full-size van program.

此外，AAM 最近還獲得了為下一代全尺寸貨車項目提供傳統車軸的業務。

This is a great example illustrating an ICE for longer thesis.

這是一個很好的例子，說明了較長論文的 ICE。

This program is scheduled to launch later in the decade.

該計劃計劃在本十年晚些時候啟動。

Finally, AAM was named one of Newsweek's greatest workplaces for women in 2024.

最後，AAM 被《新聞週刊》評為 2024 年最適合女性的工作場所之一。

We're very pleased with this award, as it is AAM's goal to support and promote a diverse, inclusive, and safe work environment.

我們對這個獎項感到非常高興，因為支持和促進多元化、包容性和安全的工作環境是 AAM 的目標。

Now let's talk about the industry.

現在我們來談談產業。

The wins that I just mentioned reinforces AAM's view that ICE, hybrid, and EV powertrains will coexist for a long time.

我剛才提到的勝利強化了 AAM 的觀點，即內燃機、混合動力和電動車動力系統將長期共存。

Although we believe electrification technology is compelling, the adoption and consumer acceptance will take time driven by affordability, range performance, and charging infrastructure.

儘管我們相信電氣化技術非常引人注目，但受經濟承受能力、續航里程性能和充電基礎設施的影響，其採用和消費者接受還需要時間。

Meanwhile, AAM will continue to manage factors under our control to facilitate this transition and drive profitable growth.

同時，AAM 將繼續管理我們控制下的因素，以促進這一轉變並推動獲利成長。

This includes making selective investments and closely monitoring technology and policy shifts.

這包括進行選擇性投資以及密切監控技術和政策變化。

In the near term, it appears to us that OEMs are still evaluating future product planning strategies, especially within the propulsion systems, which more clarity is likely to come.

在我們看來，短期內，原始設備製造商仍在評估未來的產品規劃策略，特別是在推進系統方面，這可能會更加清晰。

As such, the bidding pipeline reflects this current environment.

因此，招標管道反映了當前的環境。

What is clear is that the capacity being put in place for EVs has been re-scoped, delayed, or in some cases, canceled.

顯而易見的是，電動車的產能已被重新調整、推遲，甚至在某些情況下被取消。

AAM's view is to maintain and develop a deep and diverse product portfolio to support current and emerging powertrain trends and be agnostic to the market.

AAM 的觀點是維護和開發深入且多樣化的產品組合，以支持當前和新興的動力系統趨勢，並對市場保持不可知的態度。

We believe EV adoption by region and by segment will differ materially.

我們認為，不同地區和細分市場的電動車採用情況將存在重大差異。

On to our guidance.

接受我們的指導。

With two quarters now completed, we're raising our full year sales and EBITDA guidance.

兩個季度現已結束，我們正在提高全年銷售額和 EBITDA 指引。

AAM is now targeting sales in the range of $6.1 billion to $6.3 billion versus our previously guided sales direction of $6.05 billion to $6.35 billion.

AAM 目前的目標銷售額為 61 億美元至 63 億美元，而我們先前指導的銷售方向為 60.5 億美元至 63.5 億美元。

Our adjusted EBITDA will be approximately $705million to $755 million, which is higher than the previously communicated $685million to $750 million.

我們調整後的 EBITDA 約為 7.05 億至 7.55 億美元，高於先前公佈的 6.85 億至 7.5 億美元。

And our adjusted free cash flow will remain unchanged at approximately $200 million to $240 million.

我們調整後的自由現金流將維持在約 2 億至 2.4 億美元不變。

Our second half of the year includes multiple significant launches, including the next generation RAM heavy duty program.

我們下半年將推出許多重要產品，其中包括下一代 RAM 重型方案。

In addition, we continue to monitor industry inventories, transaction prices, incentive spending, and overall interest rates.

此外，我們持續監控產業庫存、交易價格、激勵支出和整體利率。

To conclude my remarks, and as I have communicated previously, AAM is on the future, and we will continue to drive our efforts towards securing our primary legacy business, which in all honesty is substantially complete, generating strong free cash flow, strengthening our balance sheet, we continue to pay down debt every quarter, and advancing our electrification portfolio and positioning AAM for profitable growth.

最後，正如我之前所傳達的，AAM 著眼於未來，我們將繼續努力確保我們的主要遺留業務，老實說，該業務已基本完成，產生強勁的自由現金流，加強我們的平衡表中，我們繼續每季償還債務，並推進我們的電氣化產品組合，並使AAM 實現獲利成長。

So let me now turn the call over to our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May.

現在讓我將電話轉給我們的執行副總裁兼財務長克里斯梅。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大衛，大家早安。

I will cover the financial details of our second quarter of 2024 with you today.

今天我將與您介紹 2024 年第二季的財務細節。

I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments.

我還將參考收益幻燈片，作為我準備好的評論的一部分。

So let's go ahead and begin with sales.

那麼就讓我們從銷售開始吧。

In the second quarter of 2024, AAM sales were $1.63 billion, compared to $1.57 billion in the second quarter of 2023.

2024 年第二季度，AAM 銷售額為 16.3 億美元，而 2023 年第二季為 15.7 億美元。

Slide seven shows a walk of second quarter 2023 sales to second quarter 2024 sales.

幻燈片七顯示了 2023 年第二季銷售額到 2024 年第二季銷售額的變化。

Positive volume, mix, and other was $94 million, driven by a number of our key programs and backlog in the quarter, including the GM midsize truck platform in North America and a Cherry SUV platform in China.

銷售、產品組合和其他方面的正成長為 9,400 萬美元，這得益於本季我們的一些關鍵項目和積壓訂單，包括北美的通用汽車中型卡車平台和中國的 Cherry SUV 平台。

Metal market pass-throughs and FX decreased sales by approximately $20 million, and both were lower in the quarter.

金屬市場轉手和外匯導致銷售額減少約 2,000 萬美元，本季均下降。

Now let's move on to profitability.

現在讓我們轉向獲利能力。

Growth profit was $217.3 million in the second quarter of 2024, as compared to $178.2 million in the second quarter of 2023.

2024 年第二季的成長利潤為 2.173 億美元，而 2023 年第二季的成長利潤為 1.782 億美元。

Adjusted EBITDA was $208.4 million in the second quarter of 2024, versus $191.6 million in the second quarter of last year.

2024 年第二季調整後 EBITDA 為 2.084 億美元，而去年第二季為 1.916 億美元。

You can see a year-over year walkdown of adjusted EBITDA on slide eight.

您可以在第八張投影片上看到調整後 EBITDA 的年同比情況。

In the quarter, volume, mix, and other added a net $22 million of adjusted EBITDA versus the prior year, resulting in a conversion rate of approximately 23%.

本季度，銷售、組合和其他調整後 EBITDA 與前一年相比淨增加 2,200 萬美元，轉換率約為 23%。

R&D was higher year-over-year, as timing of R&D spend can be lumpy from quarter to quarter, and net inflation, performance, and other was favorable by $16 million, driven by a combination of operational improvements, benefits of less production volatility, and inflation offsets.

研發支出較去年同期成長，因為每季的研發支出時間可能不穩定，而淨通膨、績效和其他方面則有利，在營運改善、生產波動較小的好處、和通貨膨脹的抵銷。

Let me now cover SG&A.

現在讓我介紹一下 SG&A。

SG&A expense, including R&D, in the second quarter of 2024 was $105.2 million, or 6.4% of sales.

2024 年第二季的 SG&A 費用（包括研發）為 1.052 億美元，佔銷售額的 6.4%。

This compares to $91.1 million, or 5.8% of sales, in the second quarter of 2023.

相比之下，2023 年第二季的銷售額為 9,110 萬美元，佔銷售額的 5.8%。

AAM's R&D spending in the second quarter of 2024 was approximately $44.5 million.

AAM 2024 年第二季的研發支出約為 4,450 萬美元。

The year-over-year R&D expense increase of $7 million was driven by timing of our engineering spend and programs that we are currently supporting.

研發費用比去年同期增加了 700 萬美元，這是由於我們的工程支出和我們目前支持的項目的時間表所致。

We expect our R&D spend to be in line with our initial estimates for the year, but it can vary from quarter to quarter.

我們預計我們的研發支出將與我們今年的初步估計一致，但每季可能會有所不同。

We will continue to support the needs of our business with the appropriate R&D spending levels.

我們將繼續以適當的研發支出水準來支援我們的業務需求。

That said, we anticipate R&D spend should moderate in the coming years as we finish developing our electric platform technologies and mitigate spending in this area to match current industry power train trends.

也就是說，我們預計，隨著我們完成電動平台技術的開發並減少該領域的支出，以適應當前行業動力傳動系統的趨勢，未來幾年的研發支出應該會有所放緩。

So let's move on to interest and taxes.

那麼讓我們繼續討論利息和稅收。

Net interest expense was $41.8 million in the second quarter of 2024, compared to $44.3 million in the second quarter of 2023, due in part to lower balances -- debt balances.

2024 年第二季的淨利息支出為 4,180 萬美元，而 2023 年第二季為 4,430 萬美元，部分原因是餘額（債務餘額）減少。

In addition, we paid down over $30 million of senior notes in the second quarter, and we continue to lower our debt balances with yet another $50 million paid down of senior notes here in August.

此外，我們在第二季還清了超過 3000 萬美元的優先票據，並且我們在 8 月又還清了 5000 萬美元的優先票據，繼續降低債務餘額。

In the second quarter of 2024, we recorded income tax expense of $17.2 million, compared to $5.3 million of income tax expense in the second quarter of 2023.

2024 年第二季度，我們的所得稅費用為 1,720 萬美元，而 2023 年第二季的所得稅費用為 530 萬美元。

This increase in our elevated effective tax rate was driven by higher profitability and an expense for valuation allowances primarily related to interest expense deduction limitations in the US.

我們提高有效稅率的原因是獲利能力提高以及主要與美國利息費用扣除限制相關的估價津貼費用。

We expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 45% to 50%.

我們預計調整後的有效稅率約為 45% 至 50%。

This elevated book tax rate is a function of the valuation allowance I just described.

這種提高的帳面稅率是我剛才描述的估價津貼的函數。

We also expect cash taxes of approximately $60 million this year.

我們也預計今年的現金稅約為 6000 萬美元。

Taking all these sales and cost drivers into account, our GAAP net income was $18.2 million, or $0.15 per share, in the second quarter of 2024, compared to $8 million, or $0.07 per share, in the second quarter of 2023.

考慮到所有這些銷售和成本驅動因素，我們2024 年第二季度的GAAP 淨利潤為1820 萬美元，即每股0.15 美元，而2023 年第二季度的淨利潤為800 萬美元，即每股0.07 美元。

Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release, was $0.19 per share in the second quarter of 2024, compared to $0.12 per share for the second quarter of 2023.

2024 年第二季調整後每股盈餘（不包括我們收益新聞稿中提到的項目的影響）為 0.19 美元，而 2023 年第二季為 0.12 美元。

Let's now move on to cash flow and the balance sheet.

現在讓我們轉向現金流和資產負債表。

Net cash provided by operating activities for the second quarter of 2024 was $142.8 million.

2024 年第二季經營活動提供的淨現金為 1.428 億美元。

Capital expenditures, net of proceeds from the sale of property, plant, and equipment, and government grants for the second quarter of 2024 were $46.6 million.

2024 年第二季的資本支出（扣除出售房產、廠房和設備的收益以及政府補助）為 4,660 萬美元。

Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the second quarter of 2024 were $1.7 million.

2024 年第二季重組和收購相關活動的現金支付為 170 萬美元。

Reflecting the impacts of these activities, AAM's adjusted free cash flow was $97.9 million in the second quarter of 2024.

AAM 2024 年第二季的調整後自由現金流為 9,790 萬美元，反映了這些活動的影響。

From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the quarter with net debt of $2.2 billion and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $740 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 3.0 times at June 30.

從債務槓桿角度來看，本季末我們的淨負債為 22 億美元，LTM 調整後 EBITDA 為 7.4 億美元，計算截至 6 月 30 日的淨槓桿率為 3.0 倍。

Our focus is to continue to strengthen the balance sheet by reducing debt.

我們的重點是透過減少債務來繼續強化資產負債表。

AAM ended the quarter with total available liquidity of approximately $1.5 billion, consisting of available cash and borrowing capacity on AAM's global credit facilities.

截至本季末，AAM 的可用流動性總額約為 15 億美元，其中包括可用現金和 AAM 全球信貸安排的借貸能力。

As for the full-year outlook, on slide 5, we are adjusting our revenue and EBITDA outlook.

至於全年展望，在幻燈片 5 中，我們正在調整我們的收入和 EBITDA 展望。

For sales, our target range is at the $6.1 billion to $6.3 billion for 2024.

對於銷售額，我們的目標範圍是 2024 年 61 億至 63 億美元。

This sales target is based upon a North American production of approximately 15.8 million units.

該銷售目標基於北美約 1580 萬台的產量。

As you all know, our sales results are more sensitive to the performance of certain key programs versus just macro changes to the overall industry production.

眾所周知，我們的銷售業績對某些關鍵項目的績效更加敏感，而不是整個產業生產的宏觀變化。

From an EBITDA perspective, our new range is $705 million to $755 million.

從 EBITDA 角度來看，我們的新範圍為 7.05 億美元至 7.55 億美元。

Our adjusted free cash flow target remains at $200 million to $240 million, and we anticipate CapEx at approximately 4% of sales.

我們調整後的自由現金流目標仍為 2 億至 2.4 億美元，我們預期資本支出約為銷售額的 4%。

Our adjustments to our guidance are based on what we currently see in future production bills.

我們對指導的調整是基於我們目前在未來生產帳單中看到的情況。

According to third-party estimates, the [GMT-1XX] platform is forecast at approximately 1.4 million units for the full year, with production weighted towards the first half of the year.

根據第三方估計，[GMT-1XX]平台預計全年產量約140萬台，其中產量集中在上半年。

The 1.4 million units continues to represent the midpoint of our guidance range.

140 萬台仍然代表我們指導範圍的中點。

Equally important, in addition to normal seasonality, we are in the process of launching some of AAM's largest next-generation programs in the second half of this year.

同樣重要的是，除了正常的季節性之外，我們還在今年下半年啟動 AAM 一些最大的下一代計畫。

These launches include driveline systems for the next-generation GM Delta crossover vehicle program and the next-generation Ram medium and heavy-duty trucks.

這些產品包括用於下一代通用汽車 Delta 跨界車計劃和下一代 Ram 中型和重型卡車的傳動系統。

As you know, with any launch, there are ramp-up costs and volume volatility, some of which can be unpredictable.

如您所知，任何產品的推出都會存在啟動成本和銷售波動，其中一些可能是不可預測的。

Of course, these important launches will serve as part of the key foundational sales pillars for many, many years to come, and this is a very good position to be in.

當然，這些重要的發布將成為未來許多年的關鍵基礎銷售支柱的一部分，這是一個非常好的位置。

Furthermore, we are making good progress with our performance initiatives that we have shared with you and have closed most of our commercial discussions for the year.

此外，我們與您分享的績效計劃取得了良好進展，並已結束了今年的大部分商業討論。

Putting all this together, from a full-year 2024 perspective, we are tracking to deliver year-over-year margin improvement, have reduced our outstanding debt, continue to win new business, and by the end of the year, we'll have completed significant next-generation product launches.

綜上所述，從 2024 年全年的角度來看，我們正在努力實現利潤率同比改善，減少了未償債務，繼續贏得新業務，到今年年底，我們將實現完成了重要的下一代產品發布。

And this is all really good stuff.

這都是非常好的東西。

So thank you for your time and participation on the call today.

感謝您抽空參加今天的電話會議。

I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David so we can start the Q&A

我要在這裡停下來，將電話轉回給大衛，以便我們可以開始問答

Thank you, Chris, and David.

謝謝克里斯和大衛。

We have reserved some time to take questions.

我們預留了一些時間來回答問題。

I would ask that you please limit your questions to no more than two.

我想請您將問題限制在不超過兩個。

So at this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions you may have.

因此，此時，請隨時回答您可能有的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Joe Spak, UBS.

（操作員說明）Joe Spak，UBS。

Hey, team.

嘿，團隊。

Chris.

克里斯.

I just want to sort of just talk a little bit about second half here.

我只想在這裡談下半場。

Net inflation performance, I think $24 million year-to-date.

我認為今年迄今的淨通膨表現為 2,400 萬美元。

But in thinking about second half, how should we think about that driving the EBITDA?

但在思考下半年時，我們該如何看待 EBITDA 的驅動力？

Because you mentioned recovery negotiations are underway.

因為你提到復甦談判正在進行中。

I don't know if you could give us some indications for what we could expect there.

我不知道你是否能給我們一些關於我們在那裡可以期待什麼的指示。

But then also on a year-over-year basis, I think you had some warranty issues last year that shouldn't repeat, and also the inefficiencies which have seemingly gotten better.

但與去年同期相比，我認為去年出現了一些不應重複出現的保固問題，而且效率低下的情況似乎已經有所改善。

But on the other hand, you just sort of indicated it's a pretty heavy launch schedule, which might weigh on performance a little bit.

但另一方面，您只是表示這是一個相當繁重的發布計劃，這可能會對效能產生一些影響。

So what are you guys embedding, I guess, for performance in the back half?

那麼，我想，你們在後半部嵌入了什麼來提升表現呢？

Yeah, Joe, as you think about what we're stepping into here in the back half -- talk about the midpoint, obviously starting with a nice, strong first half of the year.

是的，喬，當你想到我們在後半段即將進入的階段時——談論中點，顯然是從今年上半年的美好、強勁開始。

But from a production standpoint, just normal production, first half, second half, clearly over-weighted into the little bit in the first half, whether it's on the full-size truck platforms.

但從生產的角度來看，只是正常生產，上半年，下半年，明顯超重到上半年一點點，無論是在全尺寸卡車平台上。

Our European operation is a little bit weighted towards the first half as well.

我們的歐洲業務也有點偏重於上半年。

And then you have what's called normal seasonality in the back half of the year, just from a production landscape perspective.

從生產模式的角度來看，下半年會出現所謂的正常季節。

But some of the key items we're talking about that will weigh on the back half of the year, of course, are these large transitions we're having for our next-generation programs.

當然，我們正在談論的一些關鍵項目將在今年下半年產生影響，其中包括我們為下一代專案所做的重大轉變。

And these are some, as you know, some key products that support not only revenue generation, but profit generation in the back half.

如您所知，這些是一些關鍵產品，不僅支持創收，而且支持後半部分利潤的產生。

And they can be a little bit volatile as we sort of work through that.

當我們解決這個問題時，它們可能會有點不穩定。

So that's a key piece of the second half that obviously we'll work through the course of the year.

因此，這是下半年的關鍵部分，顯然我們將在全年中開展工作。

And then as we exit in 2025, those will be behind us.

然後，當我們在 2025 年退出時，這些都將成為過去。

But from a performance standpoint, we would expect to continue to show continued improvement in our metal forming operations in particular.

但從性能的角度來看，我們預計將繼續表現出持續的改進，特別是我們的金屬成型業務。

You can see that trend continuing through their segment disclosures and their margin performance.

您可以透過其細分市場揭露和利潤率表現看到這一趨勢的延續。

So I would expect that to continue.

所以我希望這種情況能夠持續下去。

From a recovery standpoint, our negotiations are substantially complete.

從復甦的角度來看，我們的談判已基本完成。

So that's already embedded in our first half and second half run rates.

所以這已經體現在我們上半場和下半年的運行率。

You're not going to get any additional lift per se in the back half of the year versus the first half there.

與上半年相比，下半年你本身不會獲得任何額外的提升。

So that's sort of how we call level from period to period.

這就是我們如何稱呼不同時期的水平。

And then, again, a little bit of normal seasonality in the back half.

然後，後半段又出現了一些正常的季節性。

You do have an overweight to some of your fixed costs with the holiday schedules, et cetera, as part of the industry trends.

作為行業趨勢的一部分，您確實在假期安排等方面超重了一些固定成本。

That's how I would think about it.

我就是這麼想的。

But as we sit here today stepping into these launches, we're trying to be measured here with the back half.

但當我們今天坐在這裡開始這些發佈時，我們試圖用後半部分來衡量。

But we would expect the underlying performance of the business to continue.

但我們預計該業務的基本業績將持續下去。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

One quick follow-up there.

那裡有一個快速跟進。

I think before you indicated like the midpoint of your guide assumed roughly $1.4 million on the T1.

我想在你指出之前你的指南中點假設 T1 大約為 140 萬美元。

Is that still sort of the going assumption or has that changed at all?

這仍然是目前的假設還是已經改變了？

No, that is still the going assumption.

不，這仍然是目前的假設。

Okay.

好的。

And just one more quick one.

再快一點。

The e-beam contract that was canceled, any update there?

被取消的電子束合同，有更新嗎？

I know you were trying to get some recoveries.

我知道你正在努力康復。

How are negotiations for that going?

相關談判進展如何？

Joe, this is David.

喬，這是大衛。

As we indicated to you before, that contract's been canceled or terminated, and we've turned in cancellation costs to our customers, and we're still in negotiations with them at this time.

正如我們之前向您表示的，該合約已被取消或終止，我們已將取消費用轉交給我們的客戶，目前我們仍在與他們進行談判。

So nothing further to announce right now.

所以現在沒有什麼好宣布的。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Tom Narayan, RBC Capital.

湯姆‧納拉揚 (Tom Narayan)，加拿大皇家銀行資本 (RBC Capital)。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您提出我的問題。

The first one is on the 2024 guidance.

第一個是關於 2024 年的指導。

So if my math is right, you're raising I think the EBITDA by $12.5 million at the midpoint, but the cash from operations is going down by $16 million.

因此，如果我的數學正確，我認為 EBITDA 會增加 1250 萬美元，但營運現金會減少 1600 萬美元。

Just curious what's driving that.

只是好奇是什麼推動了這一點。

My sense is probably working capital.

我的感覺可能是營運資金。

You talked about those new launches in H2, but I would think some of those launches maybe were already known about.

您談到了下半年的那些新發布，但我認為其中一些發布可能已經為人所知。

Just trying to understand what has changed since the last time I guess you gave the guidance in this regard on potentially working capital, and then I have a follow-up.

只是想了解自上次以來發生了什麼變化，我想您就潛在的營運資金提供了這方面的指導，然後我有一個後續行動。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

No, it's really two elements.

不，這其實是兩個要素。

Our cash tax is up slightly, so that's a piece of it in terms of where our previous guide was, and also it's going to simply fall down to working capital timing in terms of the balance.

我們的現金稅略有上升，所以這只是我們之前指南的一部分，而且就餘額而言，它也將簡單地下降到營運資金時間。

We had a favorable adjustment a little bit on our CapEx.

我們對資本支出進行了一些有利的調整。

Cash tax is up a little bit, and then the balance is working capital timing.

現金稅增加了一點，然後餘額就是營運資金時間。

Got it.

知道了。

And then my second one, one thing we've noticed this earnings season is that some Tier one suppliers, and OEMs for that matter, have talked about something similar to what you're saying, the R&D coming down, et cetera, and they've decided to increase capital returns to shareholders in the form of share buybacks given the depressed market values of their equity.

然後我的第二個問題，我們在這個財報季注意到的一件事是，一些一級供應商和原始設備製造商已經談論了與你所說的類似的事情，研發下降等等，他們鑑於其股權市場價值低迷，我們決定以股票回購的形式增加股東的資本回報。

In some cases, we've even seen companies lever up to do buybacks.

在某些情況下，我們甚至看到公司舉債進行回購。

I know you have that slide that shows a 3 times leverage and $1.5 billion of liquidity in your priorities to reduce debt, but just curious, as you look at where your stock is trading and potentially pushing investments out, what is your appetite to potentially doing more on the share buybacks?

我知道你的幻燈片顯示了3 倍槓桿和15 億美元的流動性，這是你減少債務的優先事項，但只是好奇，當你查看你的股票交易情況並可能推出投資時，你的興趣是什麼？

Thanks.

謝謝。

This is David.

這是大衛。

Listen, our capital allocation priorities are to continue to be disciplined and support our organic growth and our backlog of new business, continue to pay down debt.

聽著，我們的資本配置優先事項是繼續遵守紀律，支持我們的有機成長和新業務的積壓，繼續償還債務。

We obviously are more highly levered than some of our competitors and some of the other industry peers.

顯然，我們的槓桿率比一些競爭對手和其他一些同行更高。

At the same time, we're continuing to look at inorganic growth opportunities.

同時，我們正在繼續尋找無機成長機會。

So I don't really see a near-term future where we're looking at major stock buybacks or shareholder-friendly activities.

因此，我並不認為短期內我們會考慮進行重大股票回購或有利於股東的活動。

But at the same time, those are the four allocations of capital, and we always look at those.

但同時，這些是資本的四種配置，我們總是關注這些。

We try to do what we think is right for the business.

我們盡力做我們認為適合業務的事情。

But right now, I don't see it deviating from the discipline that we've had in the previous quarters and previous years.

但現在，我認為它沒有偏離我們在前幾季和前幾年所遵循的紀律。

Chris, I don't know if there's anything else you want to say.

克里斯，我不知道你還有什麼要說的嗎？

Yeah, no, Tom.

是的，不，湯姆。

Also, we've paid some debt down as a priority capital allocation in the second quarter, and I don't know if you caught in my prepared remarks, we paid yet another $50 million of debt down inside here in the third quarter.

此外，我們已經在第二季償還了一些債務作為優先資本配置，我不知道你是否明白我準備好的言論，我們在第三季又償還了 5000 萬美元的債務。

So that should be very positive and accretive to our investors as well.

因此，這對我們的投資者來說也應該是非常積極和有益的。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Dan Levy, Barclays PLC.

丹·利維，巴克萊銀行。

Hi.

你好。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

I wanted to just follow up on that last question from Tom, and more specifically on the leverage ratio.

我想跟進湯姆的最後一個問題，更具體地說是關於槓桿率。

So I believe you're right now at 3 times.

所以我相信你現在是 3 倍。

Maybe you can give us a sense of just given the current business dynamics and how you're thinking of free cash and the current EBITDA profile, what is a reasonable timeframe to expect to get down to 2 times leverage, which then unlocks a greater set of capital allocation opportunities?

也許您可以讓我們了解一下，鑑於當前的業務動態以及您對自由現金和當前 EBITDA 狀況的看法，預期槓桿率降至 2 倍的合理時間範圍是多少，然後解鎖更大的組合資本配置機會？

Dan, this is Chris.

丹，這是克里斯。

Look, if we continue to perform and increase our EBITDA, of course, this would be on a decent macro backdrop, meaning production volumes continue to remain strong.

看，如果我們繼續表現並增加我們的 EBITDA，當然，這將是在一個良好的宏觀背景下，這意味著產量繼續保持強勁。

We continue to improve our operational performance.

我們不斷改善我們的營運績效。

We can deliver good EBITDA performance over the next couple of years, strong cash flow generation.

我們可以在未來幾年內實現良好的 EBITDA 業績，並產生強勁的現金流。

You're going to start to enter that zip code.

您將開始輸入該郵遞區號。

You can do the math over the next couple of years.

你可以在接下來的幾年裡進行數學計算。

And is there additional opportunities to flex CapEx down or opportunities on the working capital side?

是否還有其他機會來降低資本支出或營運資本的機會？

Look, if you look at our CapEx spend, it's been at some of the lowest levels in our company's history over the past couple of years.

看，如果你看看我們的資本支出，你會發現過去幾年它一直處於我們公司歷史上的最低水平。

We're very cognizant to continue to support the appropriate maintenance capital inside the business, which we will not thrift because that's critical to our ongoing operational success.

我們非常清楚要繼續支持企業內部適當的維護資本，我們不會節儉，因為這對我們持續的營運成功至關重要。

And then it will ebb and flow with the new programs that we launch.

然後它會隨著我們推出的新計劃而潮起潮落。

From a working capital perspective, we're pretty tight on receivables and payables.

從營運資金的角度來看，我們的應收帳款和應付帳款非常緊張。

I think we've been one of the best benchmarks from an inventory perspective, though I do think there's continued cash flow opportunity there, which we'll squeeze out of the business over the next year or two.

我認為從庫存角度來看，我們一直是最好的基準之一，儘管我確實認為那裡有持續的現金流機會，我們將在未來一兩年內將其擠出業務。

But that continues to fund a good, solid delivery of cash flow over the next couple of years.

但這將繼續為未來幾年良好、穩定的現金流提供資金。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then maybe a follow-up.

然後也許是後續行動。

David, more of a strategic question.

大衛，更多的是一個戰略問題。

Understandably, there was a large bidding pipeline and you were trying to expand your portfolio of opportunities.

可以理解的是，有大量的投標管道，而您正試圖擴大您的機會組合。

And obviously, that's changed, as you noted in your remarks, and the bidding pipeline has certainly shifted.

顯然，正如您在演講中指出的那樣，情況已經改變，投標管道也肯定發生了變化。

The question is, what is the forward opportunity on bidding, and what are the aspirations for Axle to diversify beyond the core North America truck exposure, which has consistently been your core exposure?

問題是，競標的前瞻性機會是什麼？ 除了核心北美卡車業務之外，Axle 的多元化願望是什麼？

Or is the strategy shifting a bit to say, okay, given where we are right now, this is an exposure we're very happy with, and we're happy to flex down some of the spend and stay where we are right now?

或者策略是否發生了一些變化，好吧，考慮到我們現在的處境，這是我們非常滿意的一次曝光，我們很樂意減少一些支出並保持現在的水平？

Yes.

是的。

And clearly, our responsibility is to protect the overall health of the company.

顯然，我們的責任是保護公司的整體健康。

We're going to continue to focus on driving operational performance and strengthen the balance sheet.

我們將繼續專注於推動營運績效並加強資產負債表。

But to your point, I mean, we don't control the market and the consumer is not readily accepting electrification, which was the path that the whole industry was going.

但就你的觀點而言，我的意思是，我們無法控制市場，消費者也不容易接受電氣化，而這是整個產業正在走的路。

And everyone's had to throttle back.

每個人都必須節流。

And as I commented, all the OEMs are evaluating their long-range product plans right now.

正如我所說，所有原始設備製造商現在都在評估他們的長期產品計劃。

And we're hopeful to get some more clarity on that as we go forward here.

我們希望在我們繼續前進的過程中能夠更清楚地了解這一點。

But meanwhile, there's kind of like an air pocket going through the industry that's impacting us and other suppliers in regards to quoting opportunities, both on the ICE side and especially on the EV side.

但同時，整個產業就像一個氣穴，影響著我們和其他供應商的報價機會，無論是在 ICE 方面，尤其是在電動車方面。

And what we're doing is -- as I said, we're substantially completing securing our next-generation ICE and hybrid business.

正如我所說，我們正在做的是，我們正在基本完成下一代內燃機和混合動力業務的保護。

We're in discussions with a number of customers in regards to looking at contract extensions to some of that business as well, beyond the years that we were originally being contemplated.

我們正在與許多客戶討論是否將部分業務的合約延期，超出了我們最初設想的期限。

A lot of the EV business, as we said, has been re-scoped, re-timed, delayed, or even canceled.

正如我們所說，許多電動車業務已經重新調整範圍、重新安排時間、推遲甚至取消。

So that's impacting not only AAM, but the industry and our peers.

因此，這不僅影響 AAM，也影響整個產業和我們的同業。

And we're just trying to understand where it is.

我們只是想了解它在哪裡。

But meanwhile, we're being selective in regards to where we're placing those investments between the different powertrain propulsion systems.

但同時，我們正在選擇性地在不同的動力總成推進系統之間進行投資。

Now, truck has been a strong point for us.

現在，卡車已成為我們的強項。

It's going to continue to be a strong point for us, we think, for decades.

我們認為，幾十年來，這將繼續成為我們的優勢。

We're in a solid position with respect to that.

我們在這方面處於有利地位。

So we'll have strong cash generation there.

因此，我們將在那裡產生強勁的現金流。

But we also recognize that we need to get more diversification with customers as well as geographically in our business.

但我們也意​​識到，我們需要在客戶和業務地域上實現更加多元化。

It's part why we're doing tactical acquisitions like TechForward that allows us to grow with other customers.

這就是我們進行像 TechForward 這樣的戰術收購的部分原因，這使我們能夠與其他客戶一起成長。

So that's why I also indicated that the electrification strategies are going to vary by region.

因此，我還指出，電氣化策略將因地區而異。

Obviously in Asia, especially in China, they're going all in on hybrid and full battery electric vehicles.

顯然，在亞洲，尤其是在中國，他們正在全力開發混合動力和全電池電動車。

Europe feels strongly about it as well, but maybe lagging a little bit behind China.

歐洲對此也有強烈的感受，但可能稍微落後中國。

And North America, I think everyone's going to be in a holding pattern until we see where the election comes out in the November period of time and consumer acceptance.

至於北美，我認為每個人都將處於觀望狀態，直到我們看到 11 月的選舉結果以及消費者的接受程度。

And you know what the consumer issues are.

你知道消費者的問題是什麼。

It's all about affordability right now.

現在一切都與負擔能力有關。

It's about range anxiety, and it's about charging infrastructure.

這與里程焦慮有關，也與充電基礎設施有關。

And until those issues get fixed, I think it's going to lag in the US for a period of time, which is going to impact all of us, which just means we're going to be making more ICE and EV for a longer period of time, or -- ICE and hybrid -- excuse me, for longer periods of time.

在這些問題得到解決之前，我認為美國將滯後一段時間，這將影響我們所有人，這意味著我們將在更長的時間內生產更多的內燃機和電動車時間，或者- ICE 和混合- 對不起，更長的時間。

So, and as I said, so, I mean, you either grow organically or you grow inorganically, right?

所以，正如我所說，所以，我的意思是，你要么有機增長，要么無機增長，對嗎？

And so we're trying to manage both, but the organic growth side of things is slowing down, not just for AAM, but just for the industry in general.

因此，我們正在努力管理這兩個問題，但有機成長正在放緩，不僅對 AAM 如此，對整個產業也是如此。

And so that's why we're also trying to figure out other means for us to grow, both within our current space, meaning auto, or there are adjacent markets that we need to leverage our competencies to exercise.

因此，我們也在努力尋找其他成長方式，無論是在我們目前的領域（即汽車領域），還是我們需要利用我們的能力來行使的鄰近市場。

Hopefully, that addresses your question.

希望這能解決您的問題。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Itay Michaeli, Citi.

伊泰‧米凱利，花旗銀行。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Just a couple of follow-ups.

只是幾個後續行動。

Could you maybe just quantify the top line impact from the second half launches you talked about?

您能否量化一下您談到的下半年發布對營收的影響？

Yeah, we haven't quantified those specifically, Itay, but you can clearly see that embedded inside of if you follow, for example, the midpoint of our guidance, if you have a reasonable conversion rate on our sales, if you're comparing first rate or first run rate, half run rate compared to second half, obviously we'll probably click the step down a little bit to higher contribution margin due to the products that, in terms of weighted from trucks, first half versus second half.

是的，我們還沒有具體量化這些，Itay，但是如果您遵循我們指導的中點，如果您對我們的銷售有合理的轉換率，如果您進行比較，您可以清楚地看到嵌入其中的內容第一次率或首次運行率，與下半年相比的一半運行率，顯然我們可能會稍微降低一點，以獲得更高的貢獻率，因為就卡車的加權而言，上半年與下半年的產品。

The balance of that we'll squeeze out is sort of some of the launch impact that you'll feel in both the third and fourth quarters.

我們將擠出的平衡是您在第三季和第四季都會感受到的一些發布影響。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then just maybe, thinking beyond 2024, how should we think about the effective and cash tax rate for the company?

然後，也許，考慮到 2024 年之後，我們應該如何考慮公司的有效稅率和現金稅率？

And then also, if you just maybe give us a bit of help on the second half kind of outlook for SG&A.

另外，如果您能就下半年的 SG&A 前景給我們一些幫助。

Yeah, SG&A, we'll reverse SG&A.

是的，SG&A，我們將取消 SG&A。

We're sort of targeting that 6% to 6.5% range.

我們的目標是 6% 到 6.5% 的範圍。

I would expect that to continue in the back half.

我預計這種情況會在後半段繼續下去。

I would expect R&D to be, relatively flattish near that $40 million a quarter, which is a key piece of that SG&A as well that doesn't necessarily flex with sales.

我預計研發費用將相對持平，接近每季 4000 萬美元，這也是 SG&A 的關鍵部分，並不一定會隨著銷售的變化而變化。

So you got to contemplate that.

所以你必須考慮一下。

We've not given tax specific guidance for forward looking years, but you can see our recent cash tax rates would probably be very similar going forward.

我們沒有給出未來幾年的具體稅收指導，但您可以看到我們最近的現金稅率未來可能會非常相似。

Of course, as you become more profitable, you will pay more cash tax.

當然，隨著你的利潤增加，你將支付更多的現金稅。

Effective rate in the US is 21%.

美國的有效率是21%。

We've been higher than that, closer to that 45% to 50% due to some of our interest deduction limitations.

由於我們的一些利息扣除限制，我們的利率一直高於這個數字，接近 45% 到 50%。

So it's going to be probably somewhere between that US effective tax rate and sort of the higher rate we're experiencing currently right now, meaning as you get more profitable, those limitations start to roll off.

因此，它可能介於美國有效稅率和我們目前正在經歷的較高稅率之間，這意味著當你獲得更多利潤時，這些限制就會開始消失。

So it's going to be somewhere between the two.

所以它會介於兩者之間。

Perfect.

完美的。

That's all very helpful.

這一切都非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jake Scholl, BNP.

傑克‧肖爾，法國巴黎銀行。

Hey, guys.

嘿，夥計們。

I just wanted to dig in a little bit on profitability.

我只是想深入探討一下獲利能力。

So obviously, the first half has performed pretty well at that 12.8% level, and there's pretty big fall off in the second half.

很明顯，上半年在 12.8% 的水平上表現相當不錯，而下半年則出現了相當大的下滑。

And I know in the second half, you're dealing with a combination of lower industry volumes and RAM and Delta changeovers.

我知道在下半年，您將面臨行業銷售下降以及 RAM 和 Delta 轉換的組合。

So as we look beyond this year, are there any structural reasons why the business can't operate in that 12.5% to 13% range?

那麼，當我們展望今年之後，是否存在任何結構性原因導致該業務無法在 12.5% 至 13% 的範圍內運作？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, no, it's a great question.

是的，不，這是一個很好的問題。

And it's always difficult to extrapolate a forward-looking full year based on a single quarter, right, because there's a lot of different dynamics that go inside the quarter inside our business, whether it's launches or normal seasonality.

基於單一季度來推斷前瞻性的全年總是很困難，對吧，因為我們業務的季度內有很多不同的動態，無論是發布還是正常的季節性。

But I guess what I would encourage you is take a look at our full year guidance that we provide today holistically over 12 months.

但我想我會鼓勵您看一下我們今天提供的 12 個月的全年指導。

Obviously, our performance trend continues to be positive.

顯然，我們的業績趨勢仍然積極。

That's with a decent also volume macro backdrop.

這是有一個不錯的宏觀背景。

And then I would expect performance to continue to drive forward into the years past 2024, and some of these -- I'll call it premium costs associated with launches in the back half start to subside.

然後我預計性能將繼續向前推進到 2024 年過去的幾年，其中一些——我稱之為與後半段發布相關的溢價成本開始消退。

So I think full year, stepping into next year is a good way to think about it, making a couple of those adjustments for what I just described.

因此，我認為全年、進入明年是一個很好的思考方式，針對我剛才所描述的內容進行一些調整。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then as the EV -- you know, as the overall EV market slows down a little bit, how should we think about the profitability of your EV business?

然後，作為電動車，隨著整個電動車市場的放緩，我們應該如何考慮電動車業務的獲利能力？

I know you have also the Mercedes-AMG in addition to some of the EV programs, but how should we think about that?

我知道除了一些電動車項目之外，你們還有梅賽德斯-AMG，但我們應該如何看待這一點？

Yeah, our current EV business is only a couple percent of our current revenues today.

是的，我們目前的電動車業務僅占我們目前收入的百分之幾。

But as we go and source and secure new business, especially as it relates to electrification, -- we have certain financial hurdles that we have instituted and are very focused on as we're looking to win that business and secure that for the future.

但當我們去尋找和獲得新業務時，特別是與電氣化相關的業務時，我們已經設置了某些財務障礙，並且非常關注，因為我們希望贏得該業務並確保未來的業務。

So our goal and our objective is to continue to strive to have a top-performing profile business with our ICE, with our hybrid, and with our EV business.

因此，我們的目標是繼續努力透過我們的內燃機、我們的混合動力和我們的電動車業務來實現表現最佳的業務。

John Murphy, Bank of America.

約翰‧墨菲，美國銀行。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

Through your commentary, I mean, you have the Mercedes-AMG EV program you mentioned, the van program later in the decade, and there's some other comments.

透過你的評論，我的意思是，你提到了梅賽德斯-AMG 電動車計劃，十年後的貨車計劃，還有其他一些評論。

It's kind of an indication that the bidding is going, fairly well to grow the backlog over time.

這在某種程度上表明招標正在進行，並且隨著時間的推移，積壓訂單的數量會增加。

But we're also seeing this extension of ICE programs, right -- when I think -- when you look at your backlog, you'll net out or roll off programs that you're exiting or be wound down over time.

但我們也看到了 ICE 計劃的擴展，對吧——當我想——當你查看積壓的工作時，你會淘汰或滾動那些你正在退出或隨著時間的推移而結束的計劃。

But some of those may be actually extended.

但其中一些實際上可能會延長。

So it just seems like the backlog from a growth basis is getting better and potentially from a net roll-off will get better as some of these ICE programs get extended.

因此，成長基礎上的積壓似乎正在變得更好，隨著其中一些 ICE 計畫的擴展，淨滾存也可能變得更好。

How do you think about the backlog potential as we grind into the end of the year and into next year, that it could potentially be significantly higher than it was, at the start of the year?

當我們進入年底和明年時，您如何看待積壓的潛力，它可能會比年初時顯著增加？

John, I mean, you know our normal attrition rate's about $100 million to $200 million on a given year.

約翰，我的意思是，您知道我們每年的正常流失率約為 1 億至 2 億美元。

This year it's a little bit higher.

今年這個數字稍微高一點。

Going forward, I mean, what you're going to see is our core ICE and hybrid programs are going to extend further.

我的意思是，展望未來，您將看到我們的核心 ICE 和混合計劃將進一步擴展。

We don't include that in our backlog.

我們不會將其納入我們的積壓工作中。

That's part of our base business.

這是我們基礎業務的一部分。

So we only in our backlog show new and incremental business to the base business that we have.

因此，我們僅在積壓訂單中向我們現有的基礎業務展示新的增量業務。

Because of this air pocket going through the industry, I think it's going to challenge not only us but other suppliers going forward in regards to that backlog.

由於整個產業都存在這種氣穴，我認為這不僅會挑戰我們，也會挑戰其他供應商在積壓方面的未來。

But we still have a healthy backlog at $600 million today and obviously we'll update that appropriately at the right time next year.

但今天我們仍有 6 億美元的積壓訂單，顯然我們會在明年適當的時候適當更新。

But we're just trying to manage our way through, those issues right now.

但我們現在只是想設法解決這些問題。

But if you want to factor in extensions on core business today, then certainly our backlog would be going up.

但如果你想考慮今天核心業務的擴展，那麼我們的積壓肯定會增加。

But that's not how we have historically done it.

但我們歷史上並不是這樣做的。

As I said, we only include new and incremental business to our backlog.

正如我所說，我們只將新的和增量業務納入我們的待辦事項。

I don't know, Chris, if there's anything else you want to say.

我不知道，克里斯，你還有什麼想說的嗎？

Yes, no, John, you wouldn't see our, attrition as we thought about it before, obviously, would quote unquote slow down, right?

是的，不，約翰，你不會看到我們之前想到的損耗，顯然，會放慢速度，對嗎？

Because our programs, as David indicated, will be extended, or also being replaced with additional equivalents going into their next generation of products as well.

因為正如大衛所指出的，我們的計劃將被擴展，或者也將被下一代產品中的其他同等項目所取代。

So that's a critical factor to keep in mind.

所以這是一個需要牢記的關鍵因素。

Yes.

是的。

But are you getting actual clarity on that at this point or is that kind of a little bit of a guessing game, in conjunction with your partners?

但是，您現在是否真正清楚了這一點，或者與您的合作夥伴一起，這有點像猜謎遊戲？

Are you actually seeing that directly, in the next in current schedules and program changeovers?

您是否真的在當前的日程安排和計劃轉換中直接看到了這一點？

So our schedules on our core business today, John, are very strong and holding there.

因此，約翰，我們今天的核心業務日程非常充足，並且保持不變。

I mean, obviously, we're going through some launches, so it's impacting a little bit of the volume, especially on the RAM and on the D22, as we highlighted earlier.

我的意思是，很明顯，我們正在經歷一些發布，所以它會影響一點體積，特別是在 RAM 和 D22 上，正如我們之前強調的那樣。

But the balance of our core business is still very strong.

但我們核心業務的平衡仍然非常強勁。

It's just a matter of how long, ICE and hybrid are going to continue to run, which we think will be for a long period of time.

這只是 ICE 和混合動力將繼續運行多久的問題，我們認為這將持續很長一段時間。

And listen, the OEMs are essentially adopting and protecting their ICE business while at the same time making the necessary investments in EV and hedging their bets.

聽著，原始設備製造商本質上是在採用和保護他們的內燃機業務，同時對電動車進行必要的投資並對沖他們的賭注。

And we've said, listen, we don't have the deep pocket book that an OEM has, but we need to be more selective on where we're placing our investments in the EV, and that's exactly what we're doing on certain customers and certain programs and investing in certain technology development.

我們說過，聽著，我們沒有 OEM 那樣的雄厚資金，但我們需要更有選擇性地投資電動車，而這正是我們正在做的事情某些客戶和某些計劃以及對某些技術開發的投資。

And again, we want to be agnostic to the market, we want to be relevant to the market, and we want to give the OEMs a choice of the propulsion systems that -- whatever they need, we want to have something on the shelf to support them.

再說一遍，我們希望對市場保持不可知論，我們希望與市場相關，我們希望為原始設備製造商提供推進系統的選擇——無論他們需要什麼，我們都希望有一些現成的東西可以滿足他們的需求。支持他們。

Yeah.

是的。

And John, if you look at some of the recent announcements from some of the OEMs, they were not EV-related, which, of course, certainly supports and grows some of our base internal combustion engine and hybrid business.

約翰，如果你看看一些原始設備製造商最近發布的一些公告，你會發現它們與電動車無關，當然，電動車肯定支持和發展了我們的一些基礎內燃機和混合動力業務。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Yeah, just one comment on the cap allocation stuff.

是的，我只是對上限分配問題發表一點評論。

I think paying down debt can be very accretive to the equity over time.

我認為隨著時間的推移，償還債務可以大大增加股本。

So, you know, keep that up.

所以，你知道，堅持下去。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝，夥計們。

Thanks, John.

謝謝，約翰。

Appreciate it.

欣賞它。

That was our final question.

這是我們的最後一個問題。

This concludes our question and answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to David Lim for any closing remarks.

我想將會議轉回給 David Lim 發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, and we thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM.

謝謝，我們感謝所有參與本次電話會議的人，並感謝您對 AAM 的興趣。

We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future.

我們當然期待將來與您交談。

Thanks.

謝謝。

The conference is now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。