American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. My name is Jamie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's event is also being recorded.

大家，早安。我叫傑米，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。此時，我歡迎大家參加 American Axle & Manufacturing 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的事件也正在被記錄。

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr. David Lim, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

現在，我想請投資者關係主管 David Lim 先生髮言。請繼續，林先生。

Thank you, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's second quarter earnings call. Earlier this morning, we released our second quarter of 2023 earnings announcement. You can access this announcement on the Investor Relations page of our website. And due the PR Newswire services. You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the Investor page of our website as well. To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1 (877) 344-7529, replay access code 490-7646. This replay will be available through August 11.

謝謝你，早上好。我謹歡迎每一位參加 AAM 第二季度財報電話會議的人。今天早上早些時候，我們發布了 2023 年第二季度收益公告。您可以在我們網站的投資者關係頁面上訪問此公告。並歸功於美通社的服務。您還可以在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到本次電話會議的補充幻燈片。要收聽此通話的重播，您可以撥打 1 (877) 344-7529，重播接入碼 490-7646。該重播將持續到 8 月 11 日。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, which cannot be predicted or quantified, which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed. For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures as well as a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information is available on our website. With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dauch.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包含受風險和不確定性影響的評論和前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性無法預測或量化，這可能會導致未來的活動和經營結果出現差異實質上來自所討論的內容。如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。此外，在這次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非 GAAP 衡量標準的信息以及這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與 GAAP 財務信息的調節表可在我們的網站上獲取。接下來，讓我將此事轉交給 AAM 董事長兼首席執行官 David Dauch。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the second quarter of 2023. With me on the call today is Chris May, AAM's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. To begin my comments, I'll review the highlights of our second quarter financial performance. Next, I'll touch on some incremental electrification business development news in the quarter.

謝謝大衛，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們討論 AAM 2023 年第二季度的財務業績。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 AAM 執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Chris May。首先，我將回顧一下我們第二季度財務業績的亮點。接下來，我將談談本季度一些增量電氣化業務發展新聞。

Our technology and our approach to the market through our components and our drive units continues to gain global momentum and is driving interest across multiple segments and applications. As the transition to electrification unfolds, AAM will be at the forefront of that change with our cutting-edge electric propulsion technology that delivers robust power output, superior NVH and compact designs. After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we'll open up the call to any questions that you may have.

我們的技術以及通過我們的組件和驅動單元進入市場的方法繼續獲得全球動力，並引起了多個細分市場和應用的興趣。隨著向電氣化過渡的展開，AAM 將憑藉我們尖端的電力推進技術走在這一變革的最前沿，該技術可提供強勁的動力輸出、卓越的 NVH 和緊湊的設計。在克里斯詳細介紹我們的財務業績後，我們將致電解答您可能提出的任何問題。

So let's begin. AAM's second quarter of 2023 sales were $1.57 billion. AAM continues to be impacted by intermittent downtime at a number of our customers. Although it has become more difficult to pinpoint that causes this downtime, we believe it is a combination of continuing supply chain challenges, including the lack of labor availability and active inventory management by our customers. On a positive note, we have seen some improvement sequentially regarding these industry issues, but we continue to -- we will continue to monitor the overall macro environment and remain focused on the factors that we can control.

那麼讓我們開始吧。 AAM 2023 年第二季度的銷售額為 15.7 億美元。 AAM 繼續受到許多客戶間歇性停機的影響。儘管現在越來越難以確定導致停機的原因，但我們認為這是供應鏈持續面臨的挑戰的綜合結果，包括缺乏勞動力可用性和客戶積極的庫存管理。從積極的方面來看，我們已經看到這些行業問題相繼有所改善，但我們將繼續監控整體宏觀環境，並繼續關注我們可以控制的因素。

From a profitability perspective, AAM's adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter was $192 million or 12.2% of sales. The margin performance reflects the impact of production volatility and inflation. In addition, we continue to experience elevated launch costs and inefficiencies driven in large part by labor availability. We expect these costs to improve throughout the second half of the year as we adjust our business appropriately.

從盈利能力的角度來看，AAM 第二季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.92 億美元，佔銷售額的 12.2%。利潤率表現反映了生產波動和通貨膨脹的影響。此外，我們繼續面臨著發射成本上升和效率低下的問題，這在很大程度上是由於勞動力的可用性造成的。我們預計，隨著我們適當調整業務，這些成本將在下半年有所改善。

Chris will provide more details around our financial performance in a few moments.

克里斯稍後將提供有關我們財務業績的更多詳細信息。

AAM's adjusted earnings per share in the second quarter of 2023 was $0.12 per share. AAM generated a strong positive cash flow in the quarter. AAM's adjusted free cash flow was very strong at nearly $100 million in the second quarter.

AAM 2023 年第二季度調整後每股收益為 0.12 美元。 AAM 在本季度產生了強勁的正現金流。 AAM 第二季度的調整後自由現金流非常強勁，接近 1 億美元。

Let me talk about some business updates, which you can see on Slide 4 of our presentation deck. Last quarter, we announced a significant e-Beam Axles award with Stellantis. This quarter, we're following up with another e-Beam award with an undisclosed OEM. The program is for a light-duty truck application in China.

讓我談談一些業務更新，您可以在我們演示文稿的幻燈片 4 中看到這些更新。上季度，我們宣布與 Stellantis 一起獲得重要的電子束車軸獎。本季度，我們將與一家未公開的 OEM 一起獲得另一項 e-Beam 獎項。該計劃適用於中國的輕型卡車應用。

Additionally, we are announcing additional wins with our electric components business. These wins were in multiple global OEMs supporting programs both in North America as well as in Europe. Today's announcements reinforce AAM's broad electric vehicle product portfolio, our capabilities, our technology and our approach to the market.

此外，我們還宣布我們的電氣元件業務取得了額外的勝利。這些勝利來自於北美和歐洲的多個全球 OEM 的支持計劃。今天的公告強化了 AAM 廣泛的電動汽車產品組合、我們的能力、我們的技術以及我們的市場策略。

From a recognition standpoint, we are very excited to share that I have also made Forbes America's Best Employers for Diversity and for New Graduates. AAM is focused on fostering a safe, inclusive and accepting work environment. In addition, one of our goals is to develop the newly hired graduates to become AAM's future business leaders who will not only drive future profitability and growth for the company, but also have a strong sense for community and social responsibility.

從認可的角度來看，我們非常高興地告訴大家，我還被福布斯美國評為多元化和應屆畢業生最佳雇主。 AAM 致力於營造一個安全、包容和包容的工作環境。此外，我們的目標之一是將新聘用的畢業生培養成為 AAM 未來的商業領袖，他們不僅能推動公司未來的盈利和增長，而且具有強烈的社區和社會責任感。

To close out my comments on Slide 5 shows our guidance, which is essentially unchanged. AAM targeting sales in the range of $5.95 billion to $6.25 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $725 million to $800 million and adjusted free cash flow approximately $225 million to $300 million. And we're forecasting North American production of approximately 15.5 million units.

最後，我對幻燈片 5 的評論顯示了我們的指導，該指導基本上沒有變化。 AAM 的目標銷售額為 59.5 億至 62.5 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 約為 7.25 億至 8 億美元，調整後的自由現金流約為 2.25 億至 3 億美元。我們預計北美產量約為 1550 萬台。

However, as you all know, our sales performance is more dependent on the production of certain significant platforms with specific customers. In the continuation of the theme that started over the past several years, the operating environment remains dynamic, but we are hopeful to see additional industry stabilization in the second half of the year and starting to see signs of that.

但眾所周知，我們的銷售業績更多地依賴於特定客戶的某些重要平台的生產。延續過去幾年開始的主題，經營環境仍然充滿活力，但我們希望看到下半年行業進一步穩定，並開始看到這種跡象。

As such, we believe the industry is positioned for stable and positive trajectory the coming years. As we have communicated before, our focus and aim is on the future, and we'll continue to drive our efforts towards securing our legacy business, generating strong free cash flow, strengthening our balance sheet, advancing our electrification portfolio and positioning AAM for profitable growth. The future is very bright for AAM, underpinned by our award-winning electrification technology.

因此，我們相信該行業在未來幾年將保持穩定和積極的發展軌跡。正如我們之前所傳達的，我們的重點和目標是未來，我們將繼續努力確保我們的傳統業務，產生強勁的自由現金流，加強我們的資產負債表，推進我們的電氣化產品組合，並使AAM 實現盈利生長。在我們屢獲殊榮的電氣化技術的支持下，AAM 的未來非常光明。

Let me now turn the call over to our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May. Chris?

現在讓我將電話轉給我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官克里斯·梅。克里斯？

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. I will cover the financial details of our second quarter with you today. I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments. So let's go ahead and begin with sales. In the second quarter of 2023, AAM sales were $1.57 billion compared to $1.44 billion in the second quarter of 2022.

謝謝大衛，大家早上好。今天我將向您介紹第二季度的財務細節。我還將參考收益幻燈片，作為我準備好的評論的一部分。那麼讓我們從銷售開始吧。 2023 年第二季度，AAM 銷售額為 15.7 億美元，而 2022 年第二季度為 14.4 億美元。

Slide 7 shows a walk of second quarter 2022 sales to second quarter 2023 sales. In the quarter, pricing was a $4 million impact. Positive Volume, Mix & Other was $106 million. And the Tekfor acquisition completed at the beginning of June last year, contributed $69 million on a year-over-year basis.

幻燈片 7 顯示了 2022 年第二季度銷售額到 2023 年第二季度銷售額的變化情況。本季度，定價受到 400 萬美元的影響。正銷量、混合及其他為 1.06 億美元。去年 6 月初完成的 Tekfor 收購，同比貢獻了 6900 萬美元。

And lastly, metal market pass-throughs and FX lowered net sales by approximately $38 million with metal and FX both lower. Overall, while the North American production was up close to 15% year-over-year, our primary full-size truck platforms with GM and Stellantis were up just over 4%.

最後，金屬市場轉手和外匯使淨銷售額減少了約 3800 萬美元，其中金屬和外匯均下跌。總體而言，雖然北美產量同比增長近 15%，但我們與 GM 和 Stellantis 合作的主要全尺寸卡車平台的產量僅增長了 4% 以上。

Now let's move on to profitability. Gross profit was $178 million in the second quarter of 2023 as compared to $174 million in the second quarter of 2022. Adjusted EBITDA was $191.6 million in the second quarter of 2023 versus $195.1 million last year. You can see the year-over-year walk down of adjusted EBITDA on Slide 8. In the quarter, Volume, Mix, & Other added $31 million of adjusted EBITDA, reflecting a 29% contribution margin on AAM's higher sales.

現在讓我們轉向盈利能力。 2023 年第二季度的毛利潤為 1.78 億美元，而 2022 年第二季度為 1.74 億美元。2023 年第二季度調整後 EBITDA 為 1.916 億美元，去年為 1.951 億美元。您可以在幻燈片 8 上看到調整後 EBITDA 的同比下降。在本季度，Volume、Mix 和 Other 增加了 3100 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA，反映出 AAM 較高銷售額的貢獻率為 29%。

R&D increased by approximately $2 million to support product launches and our electrification technology development. Net inflation was a headwind of approximately $14 million and inflationary cost recovery discussions remain ongoing with our OEM customers, and we expect resolution should be achieved in the second half of the year with most of our customers.

研發增加了約 200 萬美元，以支持產品發布和電氣化技術開發。淨通貨膨脹是約 1400 萬美元的逆風，我們仍在與 OEM 客戶討論通貨膨脹成本回收問題，我們預計大多數客戶應在今年下半年達成解決方案。

The combination of launch costs, performance and other impacted EBITDA by approximately $27 million in the quarter. The drivers behind this bucket were good overall performance by the AAM's driveline segment offset by a combination of launch costs as we continue to ramp up significant new programs, the impacts of production volatility and inefficiencies at certain plants.

啟動成本、性能和其他因素相結合，對該季度的 EBITDA 產生了約 2700 萬美元的影響。這一桶背後的驅動因素是 AAM 動力傳動系統部門良好的整體性能，但由於我們繼續推進重要的新項目、生產波動和某些工廠效率低下的影響而產生的啟動成本所抵消。

Going forward, AAM's launch costs should diminish in successive quarters as we progress along our launch curves. We would also expect customer production volatility to continue to improve. As for inefficiencies, we are addressing challenges at underperforming locations, which largely stem from labor availability, which are impacting throughput, scrap, the need for expedited delivery and some other premium costs. Again, we expect these matters to be resolved this year.

展望未來，隨著我們沿著發射曲線前進，AAM 的發射成本應該會連續幾個季度下降。我們還預計客戶生產波動性將繼續改善。至於效率低下，我們正在解決表現不佳地點的挑戰，這主要源於勞動力的可用性，這影響了吞吐量、廢品、快速交付的需求和其他一些溢價成本。我們再次希望這些問題能夠在今年得到解決。

Let me now cover SG&A. SG&A expense, including R&D, in the second quarter of 2023 was $91.1 million or 5.8% of sales. This compares to $84.8 million or 5.9% of sales in the second quarter of 2022. AAM's R&D spending in the second quarter of 2023 was approximately $37 million. As we indicated, entering into 2023, R&D will trend in the $40 million range per quarter as we continue to invest in our electric drive technology, capitalizing on the growing number of electrification opportunities that are before us and are launched -- [into launched] new programs.

現在讓我介紹一下 SG&A。 2023 年第二季度的 SG&A 費用（包括研發）為 9110 萬美元，佔銷售額的 5.8%。相比之下，2022 年第二季度的銷售額為 8480 萬美元，佔銷售額的 5.9%。AAM 2023 年第二季度的研發支出約為 3700 萬美元。正如我們所指出的，進入 2023 年，隨著我們繼續投資於我們的電力驅動技術，利用擺在我們面前並已推出的越來越多的電氣化機會，研發費用將趨於每季度 4000 萬美元。新節目。

Let's move on to interest and taxes. Net interest expense was $44.3 million in the second quarter of 2023 compared to $39.5 million in the second quarter of 2022. Although our total debt is lower at quarter end on a year-over-year basis, the rising rate environment is driving the interest expense increase. In the second quarter of 2023, our income tax expense was $5.3 million as compared to an expense of $0.6 million in the second quarter of 2022.

讓我們繼續討論利息和稅收。 2023 年第二季度的淨利息支出為 4430 萬美元，而 2022 年第二季度為 3950 萬美元。儘管我們季度末的總債務同比較低，但不斷上升的利率環境正在推動利息支出增加。 2023 年第二季度，我們的所得稅費用為 530 萬美元，而 2022 年第二季度的所得稅費用為 60 萬美元。

For 2023, we expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be somewhat elevated at approximately 50% for the midpoint of our guidance range due to a valuation allowance as mentioned on our first quarter call. We also expect cash taxes of approximately $65 million this year. Taking all this into account, our GAAP net income was $8 million or $0.07 per share in the second quarter of 2023 and compared to a net income of $22.9 million or $0.19 per share in the second quarter of 2022. Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release, was $0.12 per share in the second quarter of 2023 compared to $0.22 per share for the second quarter of 2022.

對於 2023 年，由於我們在第一季度電話會議中提到的估值津貼，我們預計調整後的有效稅率將有所提高，達到指導範圍中點的約 50%。我們還預計今年的現金稅約為 6500 萬美元。考慮到所有這些，我們2023 年第二季度的GAAP 淨利潤為800 萬美元，即每股0.07 美元，而2022 年第二季度的淨利潤為2290 萬美元，即每股0.19 美元。調整後每股收益，不包括我們的收益新聞稿中提到的項目的影響，2023 年第二季度為每股 0.12 美元，而 2022 年第二季度為每股 0.22 美元。

Let's now move on to cash flow and the balance sheet. Net cash provided by operating activities for the second quarter of 2023 was $132.8 million. Capital expenditures, net of proceeds from the sale of property, plant and equipment for the second quarter of 2023 were $44.1 million. Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the second quarter of 2023 were $7.1 million. Reflecting the impact of these activities, AAM generated adjusted free cash flow of $95.8 million in the quarter.

現在讓我們轉向現金流和資產負債表。 2023年第二季度經營活動提供的淨現金為1.328億美元。 2023 年第二季度的資本支出（扣除出售房產、廠房和設備的收益）為 4,410 萬美元。 2023 年第二季度重組和收購相關活動的現金支付為 710 萬美元。反映出這些活動的影響，AAM 在本季度產生了 9580 萬美元的調整後自由現金流。

From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the quarter with net debt of $2.4 billion and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $723 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 3.3x at June 30. Driven by AAM's strong cash flow performance in the second quarter, we continued to reduce our outstanding debt by over $25 million. We will continue to utilize the free cash flow generating power of AAM to strengthen the balance sheet by reducing our outstanding debt.

從債務槓桿角度來看，本季度末我們的淨債務為24 億美元，LTM 調整後EBITDA 為7.23 億美元，計算出截至6 月30 日的淨槓桿率為3.3 倍。在AAM 第二季度強勁現金流表現的推動下，我們繼續將我們的未償債務減少超過 2500 萬美元。我們將繼續利用 AAM 的自由現金流生成能力，通過減少未償債務來強化資產負債表。

As for the rest of the year, Slide 5 shows our full year guidance. Our 2023 financial targets are unchanged. For sales, we are targeting a range of $5.95 billion to $6.25 billion for 2023. This sales target is based upon our production assumptions for our key programs and a North American production of approximately 15.5 million units. For our guidance range, we continue to anticipate the GM [T1XX] program to be flat to up to approximately 5% to 10% on a year-over-year basis.

至於今年剩餘時間，幻燈片 5 顯示了我們的全年指導。我們的 2023 年財務目標保持不變。對於銷售，我們的 2023 年目標範圍為 59.5 億至 62.5 億美元。該銷售目標基於我們對關鍵項目的生產假設以及北美產量約 1550 萬台。對於我們的指導範圍，我們繼續預計 GM [T1XX] 計劃將同比持平至約 5% 至 10%。

We note that our total sales are more sensitive to production of certain key platforms versus just overall inventory production. In terms of quarterly cadence considerations, we would expect launch costs to improve in the third quarter and customer inflation recoveries in the back half of the year. Operational inefficiencies should diminish over the balance of the year. While uncertainty remains, we are cautiously optimistic that the industry operating environment will continue to improve throughout the year. Our adjusted EBITDA target is $725 million to $800 million, and our adjusted free cash flow target is $225 million to $300 million.

我們注意到，我們的總銷售額對某些關鍵平台的生產比整體庫存生產更敏感。就季度節奏考慮而言，我們預計第三季度的推出成本將有所改善，而客戶通脹將在下半年恢復。在今年餘下的時間裡，運營效率低下的情況應該會減少。儘管不確定性依然存在，但我們對全年行業經營環境將持續改善持謹慎樂觀態度。我們調整後的 EBITDA 目標是 7.25 億美元至 8 億美元，調整後的自由現金流目標是 2.25 億美元至 3 億美元。

In conclusion, we continue to make good strides with our electrification business development and technology, reduce launch costs, progress and efficiency gains will continue, and we are optimistic about our commercial recovery [discretions] with our customers. As we head into some interesting times, we are focused on remaining nimble optimizing our business and looking forward to capturing updrafts and macro conditions as they materialize.

總之，我們在電氣化業務發展和技術方面繼續取得良好進展，降低啟動成本，進步和效率增益將持續，我們對我們與客戶的商業復甦[酌情權]持樂觀態度。當我們進入一些有趣的時期時，我們專注於保持靈活地優化我們的業務，並期待在它們實現時捕捉上升氣流和宏觀條件。

Thank you for your time and participation on the call today. I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David so we can start Q&A. David?

感謝您抽出時間參加今天的電話會議。我要在這裡停下來，將電話轉回給大衛，以便我們可以開始問答。大衛？

Thank you, Chris and David. We have reserved some time to take questions. I would ask that you please limit your questions to no more than 2. So at this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions you may have.

謝謝你們，克里斯和大衛。我們預留了一些時間來回答問題。我請求您將您的問題限制在不超過 2 個。因此，此時，請隨時繼續回答您可能有的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from John Murphy from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

One quick question first on the 29% flow-through or incremental margin you were talking about on the revenue and EBITDA and line mix. You also mentioned something about some performance pressure from the volatility of schedule that was in the bar of (inaudible) of $27 million on the EBITDA. So I mean are you pulling that out and saying that, that's not part of the incremental? And just how should we be thinking about these incrementals going forward? Maybe if you could give us the number on that volatility costs in the quarter?

首先有一個簡單的問題，關於您所談論的收入、息稅折舊攤銷前利潤 (EBITDA) 和產品線組合的 29% 流通量或增量利潤。您還提到了由於計劃波動而產生的一些績效壓力，該壓力在 EBITDA 的 2700 萬美元（聽不清）中。所以我的意思是，你是否把它拿出來並說，這不是增量的一部分？我們應該如何考慮未來的這些增量？也許您能給我們本季度波動成本的數字？

Sure. Yes. When we talk about our contribution margin as it relates to EBITDA on our volume, that is sort of pure variable profit. So that's running at [29%,] you've heard us historically talk about -- it will range anywhere from 25% to 35% based on mix. So that's our pure variable profit on those incremental sales or decremental. In this case, they're incremental.

當然。是的。當我們談論與我們銷量的 EBITDA 相關的邊際貢獻時，這是一種純粹的可變利潤。因此，這個比例是 [29%]，您已經聽我們歷史上談論過——根據組合，它的範圍從 25% 到 35% 不等。這就是我們在增量銷售或減量銷售上的純可變利潤。在這種情況下，它們是增量的。

The performance piece that you're talking about is in the $27 million bucket. You think about half of that bucket is related to launch activity in the beginning of the quarter, especially and the other half is related to some of these inefficiencies. And I would expect that half of that bucket to continue then to diminish over time through the balance of the year from a performance standpoint. That's the impact from a sequential Q2 to Q3 to Q4. That's kind of the bucket we're talking about from an inefficiency perspective. Does that?

你所說的表演部分價值 2700 萬美元。您認為其中一半與本季度初的啟動活動有關，尤其是另一半與其中一些低效率有關。從績效的角度來看，我預計這一數字的一半將隨著時間的推移在今年剩餘時間內繼續減少。這是第二季度、第三季度和第四季度連續的影響。這就是我們從低效率角度討論的桶。是嗎？

Yes. And your expectation is that is close to 0 as we exit the year. Is that a fair statement?

是的。當我們結束這一年時，您的期望是接近於 0。這是一個公平的說法嗎？

Yes. I mean it will be definitely trending that way, yes.

是的。我的意思是，它肯定會是這樣的趨勢，是的。

And David, just a second question on the EV transition. Obviously, 2 of your large customers or 2 large customers here in North America or maybe 3, are pushing back their expectations for EV volume ramp. I'm just curious what that means for your business. Does that mean on the core side, you're going to generate margins and cash flow that will fund the future and that may shift the way you run the business? Or you may just keep running and investing heavily in the EV side. I'm just curious how you're interpreting this and what it means for your strategy and business in the near term and long term.

大衛，這是關於電動汽車轉型的第二個問題。顯然，您的 2 個大客戶或北美的 2 個或 3 個大客戶正在推遲他們對電動汽車銷量增長的預期。我只是好奇這對您的業務意味著什麼。這是否意味著在核心方面，您將產生利潤和現金流，為未來提供資金，並可能改變您經營業務的方式？或者你可能會繼續在電動汽車方面進行運營和大量投資。我只是好奇您如何解釋這一點以及它對您的近期和長期戰略和業務意味著什麼。

Yes, John, I don't think it really changes our strategy that much. I mean, obviously, we're going to continue to optimize our core ICE business and get the most value out of that business. as you indicated, the performance of our current business is really what's helping us fund the future. But as Chris has commented, we're going to spend approximately $40 million per quarter in regards to R&D cost and most of that is dedicated towards supporting the transition to electrification. So we're going to continue to round out our portfolio, continue to grow our backlog in new business in electrification while optimizing our core business.

是的，約翰，我認為這並沒有真正改變我們的策略那麼多。我的意思是，顯然，我們將繼續優化我們的核心 ICE 業務，並從該業務中獲得最大價值。正如您所指出的，我們當前業務的業績確實有助於我們為未來提供資金。但正如克里斯所說，我們每季度將花費約 4000 萬美元用於研發成本，其中大部分用於支持向電氣化的過渡。因此，我們將繼續完善我們的產品組合，繼續增加電氣化新業務的積壓，同時優化我們的核心業務。

Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

I heard you say in the prepared remarks that there may have been some adverse customer mix or lower production on a particular customer program. I wanted to dig into the sort of only reiterated guide, despite now expecting the $15.5 million North America production versus [14.5] to [15.1] earlier.

我聽到您在準備好的發言中說，可能存在一些不利的客戶組合或特定客戶計劃的產量較低。我想深入研究那種只是重申的指南，儘管現在預計北美產量為 1550 萬美元，而之前的產量為 [14.5] 至 [15.1]。

It sounded like at least some of your programs might still be experiencing some unexpected downtime. I heard you say that it could be harder to pin down the reason for the downtime versus earlier when maybe automakers were more public about it clearly being semiconductor related, et cetera. So I don't know if you're able to say like which program or programs that you supply into that might have tracked softer? And do you think it's due to the customer taking downtime to adjust to lower demand, which could presumably continue? Or do you suspect it relates instead to a more supply-side explanation that could resolve?

聽起來至少您的某些程序可能仍在經歷一些意外的停機。我聽到你說，與早些時候相比，現在可能更難確定停機的原因，當時汽車製造商可能更公開地認為這顯然與半導體相關，等等。所以我不知道你是否能說出你提供的哪個或哪些程序可能跟踪得更軟？您認為這是由於客戶需要停機來適應較低的需求嗎？這種情況可能會持續下去？或者您是否懷疑這與可以解決的更多供應方解釋有關？

Yes, Ryan, this is Chris. I'll take the first part of your question here. I think the crux of your question is -- macro view from a production standpoint is 15.5 million units. That's up from our previous view, but yet we didn't raise our sales guidance in what is contributing to that thought process. So what I will tell you is, first and foremost, if you look at the assumptions for our sales, it's really the underpinning of our specific platforms.

是的，瑞安，這是克里斯。我將在這裡回答你問題的第一部分。我認為你問題的關鍵是——從生產角度宏觀來看是1550萬台。這與我們之前的觀點有所不同，但我們並沒有提高我們的銷售指導，以了解有助於這一思維過程的因素。所以我要告訴你的是，首先也是最重要的，如果你看看我們的銷售假設，它確實是我們特定平台的基礎。

And to be frank, our view on our big platforms that drive this company have not really changed much over the last, call it, quarter or 2. I told you, as we mentioned in the prepared remarks, our view on the General Motors full-size truck platform continues to remain the same as it was previously from a year-over-year flat to up 5% to 10% (inaudible) our range and as well as our other top platforms with Stellantis and other ones with General Motors.

坦率地說，我們對推動這家公司發展的大平台的看法在過去，即季度或兩個季度並沒有真正改變太多。我告訴過你，正如我們在準備好的發言中提到的，我們對通用汽車的看法完全我們的系列以及我們與Stellantis 合作的其他頂級平台以及與通用汽車合作的其他頂級平台，小型卡車平台繼續保持與之前相同的水平，從同比持平上升5% 至10%（聽不清）。

Those continue to remain pretty consistent sort of quarter-over-quarter. We do see some ancillary benefit on the elevated production in some of our smaller components, we would supply, for example, through the metal forming group. So you do get a little bit of lift on that, but our main programs, we have not changed our views on.

這些數據與季度相比仍然保持相當一致。我們確實看到一些較小部件的產量提高帶來了一些附帶好處，例如，我們將通過金屬成型集團供應。所以你確實對此有所了解，但我們的主要計劃並沒有改變我們的觀點。

Okay. I did want to check in on that other comment on the Slide 2 about the guidance being based upon sort of the current business environment versus the earlier business environment? Are you seeing the same improvement in business environment that other suppliers are reporting such as steadier customer production schedules generally or, I don't know, moderating non-commodity supply chain costs, I heard a lot about freight this quarter? How are you feeling about the overall industry operating backdrop?

好的。我確實想查看幻燈片 2 上關於指導基於當前業務環境與早期業務環境的其他評論？您是否看到其他供應商報告的商業環境也有同樣的改善，例如總體上更穩定的客戶生產計劃，或者我不知道，緩和非商品供應鏈成本，我在本季度聽到了很多關於貨運的信息？您對整個行業的運行背景有何看法？

Yes. I think from a production standpoint, Ryan, what I would tell you is our second quarter in terms of downtime, duration of downtime, notification of downtime, still impacted negatively but better than what we saw and experienced in the first quarter of this year.

是的。我認為，從生產的角度來看，瑞安，我要告訴你的是，我們第二季度的停機時間、停機時間、停機通知仍然受到負面影響，但比我們今年第一季度看到和經歷的情況要好。

That does continue though into the third quarter. One of our largest endpoint plants from the light truck perspective is down, for example, 2/3 of the month of July. So that does continue, but it is sequentially better than what we experienced in the early part of the year. From a cost perspective, we've seen some favorability from our macro conditions on things like utilities and freight, but we still face pressures from an inflation standpoint on labor as well as from our supply base who are also experiencing these type of inflationary cost pressures that they're looking to pass up through the chain, those continue.

這種情況確實持續到第三季度。從輕型卡車的角度來看，我們最大的端點工廠之一處於停機狀態，例如，7 月份有 2/3 的時間處於停機狀態。所以這種情況確實會持續下去，但它比我們今年早些時候經歷的情況要好得多。從成本角度來看，我們已經看到公用事業和貨運等宏觀條件對我們有利，但我們仍然面臨勞動力通脹以及我們的供應基礎的壓力，他們也正在經歷此類通脹成本壓力他們希望通過鏈條向上傳遞，這些仍在繼續。

Our next question comes from Dan Levy from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。

I think you may have addressed this in the comment [or] just launch cost dissipating, but maybe you can give us a little more color, Chris, on the 1H to 2H bridge. And specifically, you have revenue down slightly at the midpoint, but your margin is up 1 point. Is that just purely the launch costs dissipating? Is there anything optical with (inaudible) color on the margins?

我想你可能已經在評論中解決了這個問題，[或者]只是啟動成本消散，但克里斯，也許你可以在 1H 到 2H 橋上給我們更多的信息。具體來說，您的收入在中點略有下降，但您的利潤率上升了 1 個百分點。這僅僅是發射成本的消散嗎？邊緣是否有任何帶有（聽不清）顏色的光學物體？

Yes, if you think about first half performance -- first half, second half in totality, if you're talking about, call it, at the midpoint of our range, the revenues would be about equal, which would imply sales per day slightly higher because there are lower production days in the second half. Our view is some of our larger platforms are more consistent from an absolute volume perspective, plus our backlog is a little bit more weighted to the back half of the year from a revenue perspective.

是的，如果你考慮上半年的業績——上半年，下半年的整體表現，如果你說的是，稱之為，在我們範圍的中點，收入將大致相等，這意味著每天的銷售額略有增加較高是因為下半年的生產天數較低。我們的觀點是，從絕對數量的角度來看，我們的一些較大平台更加一致，而且從收入的角度來看，我們的積壓訂單更多地集中在今年下半年。

And then absolutely, yes, that would also imply an uptick in some level of margin performance, and that's driven by elimination of some of these launch costs as they dissipated some of our larger programs were launched during the first half of the year. Think of, for example, the GM midsize truck platform that was launched in the first quarter and early parts of the second quarter as well as gaining on some of those efficiencies related to labor availability that we've been working through -- in a meaningful way here in the second quarter that will continue into the third quarter and then will start to improve itself as we exit the third quarter into the fourth. That's how I would think about that.

然後絕對，是的，這也意味著一定程度的利潤表現的上升，這是由於消除了其中一些啟動成本，因為它們消散了我們在今年上半年啟動的一些大型項目。例如，想想第一季度和第二季度初期推出的通用汽車中型卡車平台，以及我們一直在努力解決的與勞動力可用性相關的一些效率問題——以一種有意義的方式在第二季度，這種情況將持續到第三季度，然後當我們從第三季度進入第四季度時，這種情況將開始改善。我就是這麼想的。

Okay. And then just as a follow-up to John's question earlier, David, just on the issue of EV targets getting pushed out by some of the D3. Are you seeing any change in the OEMs in terms of their focus on vertical integration, I would have thought that maybe they won't have enough volume to adjust the 5 vertical integration efforts for certain components. And so this plays in a bit more to the outsourcing opportunity and is the opportunity for you on drive units?

好的。然後，作為約翰之前問題的後續，大衛，關於電動汽車目標被一些 D3 推遲的問題。您是否看到 OEM 在對垂直整合的關注方面有任何變化，我本以為他們可能沒有足夠的數量來調整某些組件的 5 個垂直整合工作。因此，這對外包機會起到了更大的作用，這對您來說是驅動單元的機會嗎？

And I mean there's obviously uncertainty as the OEMs are still trying to figure out their long-range product plans and what type of vertical integration strategy that they want to have. What's clear to us is that they're going to do part of it. The question is how much are they going to do. All we want to do is make sure that we've got the proper product portfolio in place to be able to satisfy any demand that they go to the outside to support.

我的意思是，這顯然存在不確定性，因為原始設備製造商仍在試圖弄清楚他們的長期產品計劃以及他們想要採用哪種類型的垂直整合戰略。我們清楚的是他們將做其中的一部分。問題是他們要做什麼。我們想要做的就是確保我們擁有適當的產品組合，以便能夠滿足他們到外部支持的任何需求。

And we're very well positioned for that. As we've conveyed to you all before, we're approaching the market where we can go at it from a component standpoint. We can do it from a subassembly standpoint. We can do it from a gearbox standpoint, and we can do it in a final assembly and that final assembly can either be an EDU like an electric drive unit or a complete e-beam assembly, which is more applicable to pickups and things like that for low carrying capabilities.

我們為此做好了充分的準備。正如我們之前向大家傳達的那樣，我們正在接近可以從組件角度進入的市場。我們可以從組件的角度來做到這一點。我們可以從變速箱的角度來做到這一點，我們可以在總裝中做到這一點，總裝可以是像電動驅動單元這樣的EDU，也可以是完整的電子束組件，這更適用於皮卡和類似的東西用於低承載能力。

So we're growing in all those segments right now. At the same time, we're hopeful that we can continue to grow maybe at an accelerated rate, but that's going to be dependent on the OEMs making their vertical integration strategies. But back to John's earlier comment in regards to these volumes may be pushing out a little bit.

所以我們現在在所有這些領域都在增長。與此同時，我們希望能夠繼續加速增長，但這將取決於原始設備製造商制定的垂直整合戰略。但回到約翰之前關於這些卷的評論可能有點過時了。

Again, I still think ICE is going to be here much longer than maybe others think. I've been very vocal and very open about that. But at the same time, I'm a big believer in electrification technology. I just think it's going to take a little bit longer to be fully adopted because there's a number of issues that got to get addressed from the infrastructure standpoint, the charging station standpoint, the affordability of materials, the affordability from a consumer standpoint, from a mass market.

再說一次，我仍然認為 ICE 存在的時間比其他人想像的要長得多。我對此一直非常直言不諱、非常開放。但與此同時，我非常相信電氣化技術。我只是認為它需要更長的時間才能被完全採用，因為有許多問題需要從基礎設施的角度、充電站的角度、材料的承受能力、消費者的承受能力、從大眾市場。

And then ultimately, the OEMs also got to demonstrate the ability to make money here because that's ultimately what's going to continue to fund -- organizations going forward. So I think though my personal opinion I think there'll be a balance. What that balance and mix is going to be in the future is TBD. But at the same time, we'll be prepared to support whatever that mix is going to be.

最終，原始設備製造商還必須展示在這裡賺錢的能力，因為這最終將繼續為組織的發展提供資金。所以我認為，儘管我個人的意見，我認為會有一個平衡。未來的平衡和混合將會是什麼，還有待確定。但與此同時，我們將準備好支持任何組合。

Our next question comes from James Picariello from BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello。

Just on the metals and FX flow through, right, the first half has seen an EBITDA benefit of $23 million. And I think your original guidance, which, of course, remains intact, baked in a full year headwind to EBITDA of about $20 million. So what's driving the major delta there? And how are you thinking about the rest of the year? And then just a follow-on to that, can you provide any color on how you're managing your Mexican peso exposure and the associated impact there to your conversion.

僅就金屬和外匯流量而言，上半年的 EBITDA 收益就達到了 2300 萬美元。我認為您最初的指導方針當然保持不變，在全年 EBITDA 約為 2000 萬美元的逆風中得以實現。那麼是什麼推動了主要三角洲的發展呢？您對今年剩下的時間有何看法？接下來，您能否提供有關如何管理墨西哥比索風險以及對轉化的相關影響的任何信息。

Yes. Certainly, I'll take this here, James. From a metal market perspective, we have seen the first half of this year a benefit, if you will, as we've seen some softening in some of those metal indices. So you're seeing that translate in a positive relationship to us. Typically, when they go down, our revenues go down, but we capture a little bit of that 10% to 20% residual to the profit upside. The inverse happens, of course, when they go up. We've seen them start to trend up a little bit here in the back half of the second quarter, but not meaningfully. How do we think about these unfolding for the balance of the year? Typically, as you know, they change every 30 days for us. We just assume sort of run rate where we exited the second quarter from a level of metals indices.

是的。當然，我會在這裡接受這個，詹姆斯。從金屬市場的角度來看，如果你願意的話，我們已經看到今年上半年的收益，因為我們看到其中一些金屬指數有所走軟。所以你會看到這對我們產生了積極的關係。通常情況下，當它們下降時，我們的收入也會下降，但我們會從利潤增長的 10% 到 20% 的剩餘部分中獲得一點點。當然，當它們上漲時，相反的情況就會發生。我們看到它們在第二季度後半段開始略有上升，但意義不大。我們如何看待今年餘下時間裡這些事情的發展？如您所知，通常情況下，我們每 30 天就會更改一次。我們只是假設第二季度退出金屬指數水平時的運行率。

In terms of profitability standpoint, like I mentioned, they have an inverse relationship. We saw some increasing metal content at the end of last year. Aluminum was very strong and elevated. We saw some mix trends on some of the other commodities. So that was our guidance going into the year. This is obviously playing out a little bit better for us from a metals perspective. But again, it changes every 30 days, and we're subject to the [whims], the design of our contracts with our customers are to insulate us and protect us at a macro level for these type of metal changes. That would be my first point.

從盈利能力的角度來看，正如我提到的，它們之間存在反比關係。去年年底，我們發現金屬含量有所增加。鋁非常堅固且高。我們看到其他一些商品出現了一些混合趨勢。這就是我們今年的指導。從金屬的角度來看，這顯然對我們來說更好一些。但同樣，它每 30 天就會發生變化，而且我們會受到[突發奇想]的影響，我們與客戶的合同設計是為了在宏觀層面上隔離我們並保護我們免受此類金屬變化的影響。這是我的第一點。

Second point, you've asked about the peso side. Yes, obviously, that currency is a very important currency for us from a cost perspective. We buy over or consume on an annual basis, over PHP 5 billion. So think of a few hundred million dollars worth of pesos. We do have a rolling hedge program. In terms of that where we hedge between 0 to 3 years out, and we're in a pretty good spot for that here this year.

第二點，您詢問了比索方面。是的，顯然，從成本角度來看，該貨幣對我們來說是非常重要的貨幣。我們每年購買或消費超過 50 億比索。因此，想想價值幾億美元的比索。我們確實有滾動對沖計劃。就我們在​​ 0 到 3 年內進行對沖而言，今年我們處於一個非常好的位置。

We disclosed all our hedging relationships, of course, inside of our [queue]. But any -- in a typical time frame, we're hedged on a next 12-month rolling basis anywhere between, call it, 75% to 80%. Hopefully, that frames up our peso exposure. But it is strengthening, and obviously, that will be a little bit of a headwind for us, as we head more into next year, a very small amount for the balance of this year.

當然，我們在[隊列]內部披露了所有對沖關係。但在典型的時間範圍內，我們會在未來 12 個月的滾動基礎上進行對沖，範圍為 75% 到 80%。希望這能確定我們的比索敞口。但它正在加強，顯然，這對我們來說會有點阻力，因為我們將更多地進入明年，而今年剩餘時間的阻力很小。

Understood. That's helpful. And just on the e-Beam Axle award in China, would that be through any joint venture relationship for you guys? Or is that going to be just completely done in region through your consolidated operations? Just any color you can provide there?

明白了。這很有幫助。就中國的 e-Beam Axle 獎項而言，你們會通過任何合資關係嗎？或者這將通過您的整合運營在該地區完全完成？您可以在那裡提供任何顏色嗎？

We're just not able to comment on that at this time based on what the customer has asked us at this point in time. But at the appropriate time, we certainly will do that and let you know that.

我們目前無法根據客戶此時向我們提出的問題對此發表評論。但在適當的時候，我們當然會這樣做並讓您知道。

And ladies and gentlemen, our last question today will come from Tom Narayan from RBC.

女士們、先生們，今天的最後一個問題將由加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的湯姆·納拉揚 (Tom Narayan) 提出。

If you could provide maybe some color on specifically what -- how you guys are improving the labor availability. I know you've called that out a couple of quarters now. Yes, just what specifically you're doing that gives you confidence that will improve.

如果您能提供一些具體信息，說明你們如何改善勞動力可用性。我知道你已經這麼說了幾個季度了。是的，正是你正在做的具體事情讓你有信心會有所進步。

Yes. This is David. Tom. First and foremost, I mean, obviously, we're extending the pool in the area that we're looking to attract talent from -- we're paying referral bonuses, we're paying retention bonuses. We've increased our wages multiple times. We're demonstrating greater flexibility in regards to how we are hiring and the type of positions and roles that we have.

是的。這是大衛。湯姆.首先，我的意思是，顯然，我們正在擴大我們希望吸引人才的領域的人才庫——我們支付推薦獎金，我們支付保留獎金。我們已經多次漲工資了。我們在招聘方式以及職位和角色類型方面表現出更大的靈活性。

We're also putting in appropriate skill set training and development. So there's 1 thing to the vet them and then hire them but also then retain them so we can slow down some of the attrition rate that's going on in the marketplace to you today. But everything I just covered with you and a number of other things are definitely starting to pay off, and we're starting to address and get these issues taking care of and we're highly confident that we'll have it resolved here in the second half of the year.

我們還進行適當的技能培訓和發展。因此，有一件事要審查他們，然後僱用他們，然後保留他們，這樣我們就可以減緩當今市場上發生的一些流失率。但我剛剛向您介紹的所有內容以及其他一些事情肯定已經開始得到回報，我們正在開始解決並解決這些問題，我們非常有信心我們將在下半年。

Some other elements for that, Tom, as well, as we look at some of the product flow in our facilities looking to optimize some of our open capacity elsewhere that has labor availability or I should say, doesn't have labor availability issues that we can leverage from that perspective as well as you've heard us also talk about automation, so that takes time to implement over time. So we're looking for areas to support that as well. So we're really attacking this on all fronts.

湯姆，還有其他一些因素，當我們查看我們工廠中的一些產品流程時，希望優化我們其他地方的一些開放產能，這些產能有勞動力可用，或者我應該說，不存在我們認為的勞動力可用問題。可以從這個角度利用，而且您也聽說過我們也談論自動化，因此隨著時間的推移，這需要時間來實施。因此，我們也在尋找支持這一點的領域。所以我們確實在各個方面對此進行攻擊。

Got it. And then my follow-up on the -- the D3 volume issue in North America, we're not necessarily seeing that happen as much with maybe European OEMs. Just curious if -- are you able -- if you're making these products, is it possible to shift your strategy to selling to other OEMs? Or are you kind of just fixed on developing EV products for your existing OEM kind of customers that you have that are maybe more -- North America...

知道了。然後是我的後續行動——北美的 D3 銷量問題，我們不一定會看到歐洲 OEM 發生同樣的情況。只是好奇如果——你能——如果你正在生產這些產品，是否有可能將你的策略轉變為向其他原始設備製造商銷售？或者您是否只是專注於為您現有的 OEM 類型客戶開發電動汽車產品，這些客戶可能更多 - 北美......

Our approach to the market is a global approach to the market from an electrification standpoint, broken down in the different segments that I outlined earlier. Clearly, we service 75% of our business today is here in North America. So we want to work to protect the existing programs that we have, while also growing that. But we also, as we've highlighted before, won sizable awards in Europe as well as in China, that's all electrification based. So again, we'll go where the opportunities are. At the same time, be respective of the OEM decisions in regards to what they think the launch time will be for their respective programs.

從電氣化的角度來看，我們的市場策略是全球市場策略，分為我之前概述的不同細分市場。顯然，我們今天 75% 的業務都在北美。因此，我們希望努力保護我們現有的計劃，同時也擴大其規模。但正如我們之前強調的那樣，我們在歐洲和中國也贏得了相當大的獎項，這都是基於電氣化的。同樣，我們會去有機會的地方。同時，原始設備製造商 (OEM) 就他們認為各自程序的發佈時間做出各自的決定。

I believe that was our last question. Thank you, Tom, and we thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM. We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future. Thank you.

我相信這是我們的最後一個問題。謝謝您，Tom，我們感謝所有參與本次電話會議的人，並感謝您對 AAM 的興趣。我們當然期待將來與您交談。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們先生們，我們今天的電話會議和演示就到此結束。我們感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。