American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, and welcome to the American Axle & Manufacturing Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

早上好，歡迎來到 American Axle & Manufacturing 2022 年第三季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to David Lim, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係主管 David Lim。請繼續。

Thank you, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone who's joining us on AAM's third quarter earnings call. Earlier this morning, we released our third quarter of 2022 earnings announcement. You can access this announcement on the Investor Relations page of our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services. You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the Investor page of our website as well. To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial in 1 (877) 344-7529, replay access code is 525256. This replay will be available through November 11.

謝謝，早上好。歡迎所有參加 AAM 第三季度財報電話會議的人。今天早上早些時候，我們發布了 2022 年第三季度的收益公告。您可以在我們網站 www.aam.com 的投資者關係頁面上以及通過美通社服務訪問此公告。您還可以在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到本次電話會議的補充幻燈片。要收聽此電話的重播，您可以撥打 1 (877) 344-7529，重播接入碼是 525256。此重播將在 11 月 11 日之前提供。

Regarding the Investor Relations calendar, we would like investors to mark your calendars for our technology event in Ride and Drive in Las Vegas on January 4, 2023.

關於投資者關係日曆，我們希望投資者將您的日曆標記為 2023 年 1 月 4 日在拉斯維加斯 Ride and Drive 舉行的技術活動。

With that said, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, which cannot be predicted or quantified and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed. For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures as well as a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information is available on our website.

話雖如此，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包含受風險和不確定性影響的評論和前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性無法預測或量化，可能導致未來的活動和運營結果有所不同實質上來自所討論的內容。如需更多信息，我們要求您參考我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。此外，在此次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標。我們的網站上提供了有關這些非 GAAP 措施的信息以及這些非 GAAP 措施與 GAAP 財務信息的調節。

Now let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dauch.

現在讓我把事情交給 AAM 的董事長兼首席執行官 David Dauch。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the third quarter of 2022. Joining me on the call today are Mike Simonte, AAM's President; and Chris May, AAM's Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，大衛，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們討論 AAM 2022 年第三季度的財務業績。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 AAM 總裁 Mike Simonte；和 AAM 的副總裁兼首席財務官 Chris May。

I'd like to begin today's call by addressing the media activity from yesterday regarding AAM. We put out a press release earlier this morning addressing it. While it is our long-standing policy not to publicly comment on market rumors and media speculation, we feel it is important to state that we are not engaged in any discussion to sell the company and that we are not otherwise for sale.

在今天的電話會議開始之際，我想談談昨天關於 AAM 的媒體活動。我們今天早上早些時候發布了一份新聞稿來解決這個問題。雖然我們的長期政策是不公開評論市場謠言和媒體猜測，但我們認為重要的是要聲明我們沒有參與任何出售公司的討論，我們也不會以其他方式出售。

In the ordinary course of business and executing our strategic plan, we continuously monitor market conditions and assess industry developments, and we regularly consider strategic opportunities that serve the best interest of the company and its shareholders. Finally, we do not intend to make any further comments or respond to any inquiries regarding these matters on this call.

在日常業務過程和執行我們的戰略計劃中，我們持續監控市場狀況和評估行業發展，並定期考慮符合公司及其股東最佳利益的戰略機會。最後，我們不打算在本次電話會議上就這些事項發表任何進一步評論或回應任何詢問。

That said, the agenda for today's call is as follows: I'll review the highlights of our third quarter financial performance. Next, I'll touch on some exciting business development news inside the quarter regarding wins with electrification and significant wins with our traditional business. Lastly, I'll discuss our updated 2022 financial outlook before turning things over to Chris. After Chris covers the details of the financial results, we will open up the call for any questions that you all may have.

也就是說，今天電話會議的議程如下：我將回顧我們第三季度財務業績的亮點。接下來，我將談談本季度內一些令人興奮的業務發展消息，這些消息涉及電氣化的勝利和我們傳統業務的重大勝利。最後，在將事情交給克里斯之前，我將討論我們更新後的 2022 年財務展望。在 Chris 介紹了財務結果的詳細信息後，我們將打開電話，回答大家可能有的任何問題。

So let's begin. Overall, AAM's third quarter 2022 financial results were impacted by higher-than-expected production volatility and year-over-year inflation. AAM's third quarter sales were $1.5 billion. As we exited the second quarter, we anticipate a relatively more stable operating environment in the second half of this year. However, a number of our customers continue to adjust production volumes throughout the entire quarter, mainly driven by continued semiconductor supply chain challenges and labor availability issues.

讓我們開始吧。總體而言，AAM 2022 年第三季度的財務業績受到高於預期的生產波動和同比通脹的影響。 AAM 第三季度的銷售額為 15 億美元。隨著我們退出第二季度，我們預計今年下半年的經營環境將相對穩定。然而，我們的一些客戶在整個季度繼續調整產量，這主要是由於持續的半導體供應鏈挑戰和勞動力可用性問題。

We experienced this across multiple vehicle segments, in particular, full-size trucks that we support. Most of this volatility was experienced with short lead time notification. In addition, we are closely monitoring the macroeconomic backdrop, underpinned by the rising rate environment and the inflationary pressures. That said, even though we have short-term volatility, we believe large truck demand remains resilient over time as many individuals and businesses rely upon them for work and personal preference. In addition, all-wheel drive and 4x4 mix tend to be more inelastic compared to other vehicle features, especially with the full-size truck segment.

我們在多個車輛領域都經歷過這種情況，尤其是我們支持的全尺寸卡車。這種波動大部分是在提前通知時間短的情況下發生的。此外，我們正在密切關注受利率上升環境和通脹壓力支撐的宏觀經濟背景。也就是說，儘管我們存在短期波動，但我們認為大型卡車需求隨著時間的推移保持彈性，因為許多個人和企業依賴它們來工作和個人喜好。此外，與其他車輛功能相比，全輪驅動和 4x4 混合動力往往更缺乏彈性，尤其是在全尺寸卡車領域。

AAM's adjusted EBITDA in the third quarter of 2022 was $198 million or 12.9% of sales. In the quarter, there were several puts and takes, including volume and mix, and Chris will cover the specifics with you shortly, but we remain focused on factors that we can control, including sales contribution conversion, investing in R&D initiatives and mitigating inflationary headwinds. Furthermore, we continue to make progress to our OEM commercial recovery discussions, and we are on track with what we had told you previously. However, let me underscore supply chain challenges, including semiconductors and labor shortages are very much with us. In our view, we believe normalization may not occur until well into 2023 and possibly beyond.

AAM 在 2022 年第三季度的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.98 億美元，佔銷售額的 12.9%。在本季度，有一些投資和投資，包括數量和組合，Chris 將很快與您討論具體細節，但我們仍然關注我們可以控制的因素，包括銷售貢獻轉換、研發計劃投資和緩解通脹逆風.此外，我們在 OEM 商業恢復討論方面繼續取得進展，並且我們正在按照我們之前告訴您的內容進行。但是，讓我強調一下供應鏈挑戰，包括半導體和勞動力短缺，這對我們來說非常重要。我們認為，正常化可能要到 2023 年甚至更久之後才會發生。

AAM's earnings per share in the third quarter of 2022 was $0.22 per share. AAM's adjusted EPS was $0.27 per share. AAM continued to deliver positive adjusted free cash flow generation in the quarter, a hallmark of our operating model. AAM's third quarter 2022 adjusted free cash flow was $46 million.

AAM 在 2022 年第三季度的每股收益為 0.22 美元。 AAM 的調整後每股收益為 0.27 美元。 AAM 在本季度繼續產生正的調整後自由現金流量，這是我們運營模式的一個標誌。 AAM 2022 年第三季度調整後的自由現金流為 4600 萬美元。

We have a very straightforward capital allocation strategy supported by our free cash flow generation. And that's clearly to strengthen the balance sheet, invest in electrification technology and conduct smart, high-value bolt-on M&A when it makes sense such as we recently did with our Tekfor acquisition. And in the third quarter, we reduced our long-term debt by an additional $50 million.

我們有一個非常簡單的資本配置策略，由我們產生的自由現金流支持。這顯然是為了加強資產負債表，投資電氣化技術，並在有意義的時候進行明智的、高價值的補強併購，比如我們最近對 Tekfor 的收購。在第三季度，我們又減少了 5000 萬美元的長期債務。

Now let's talk about some recent and very exciting key highlights, which you can see on Slides 4 and 6 of our investment package. Let's start with the electrification. Our technical and commercial efforts in the electrification continue to experience very positive traction. Having a solid technology base and growing product portfolio are opening up multiple dialogues with OEM customers. The auto manufacturers are extremely focused on the future mobility and they need partners with a proven track record in technology and operational excellence. And it's the goal of AAM and this leadership team to be a key OEM partner in electrification propulsion from components to full systems.

現在讓我們談談最近的一些非常令人興奮的關鍵亮點，您可以在我們投資組合的幻燈片 4 和 6 上看到這些亮點。讓我們從電氣化開始。我們在電氣化方面的技術和商業努力繼續獲得非常積極的牽引力。擁有堅實的技術基礎和不斷增長的產品組合正在開啟與 OEM 客戶的多重對話。汽車製造商非常關注未來的移動性，他們需要在技術和卓越運營方面擁有良好記錄的合作夥伴。 AAM 和這個領導團隊的目標是成為從組件到完整系統的電氣化推進的主要 OEM 合作夥伴。

As such, we're very happy to announce our first eBeam axle award with EKA Mobility for its 2.5 ton light commercial vehicle. EKA is a leader in commercial vehicles in India, manufacturing a complete range of EVs, fuel cell EVs and alternative fuel vehicles with a focus on low total cost of ownership. In addition, we were awarded contracts to supply gears for Volvo Cars' next-generation electric drive units. Volvo is a premier global brand known for its focus on safety.

因此，我們非常高興地宣布 EKA Mobility 的 2.5 噸輕型商用車獲得了我們的第一個 eBeam 車橋獎。 EKA 是印度商用車的領導者，生產全系列的電動汽車、燃料電池電動汽車和替代燃料汽車，專注於降低總擁有成本。此外，我們還獲得了為沃爾沃汽車的下一代電動驅動裝置供應齒輪的合同。沃爾沃是全球首屈一指的品牌，以注重安全著稱。

With EKA and Volvo Cars, you're hearing us talk about new customers, markets and geography. This is aligned with our vision of our electrification growth and emphasis on our ability to grow in electric drive units and components.

通過 EKA 和沃爾沃汽車，您會聽到我們談論新客戶、市場和地域。這與我們對電氣化增長的願景以及對我們在電力驅動裝置和組件方面增長能力的重視是一致的。

And as a testament to our engineering and innovation, AAM was awarded not 2 but 3 PACE awards this year. We received a PACE award for our P3 electric drive in the Mercedes-AMG GT 63 SC performance vehicle, a PACE Innovation Partnership Award for our high-level collaboration with Mercedes AMG, and a PACE Pilot Innovation Award for our highly integrated 3-in-1 wheel and electric drive which incorporates and integrates a motor, a gearbox and inverter into a compact power dense form function. This technology is applicable on multiple vehicle segments from compact cars to full eBeam axle applications on light commercial vehicles and is scheduled to launch with a customer in 2024.

作為對我們的工程和創新的證明，AAM 今年獲得了 3 個 PACE 獎項，而不是 2 個。我們在梅賽德斯-AMG GT 63 SC 高性能車輛中的 P3 電驅動獲得了 PACE 獎，我們與梅賽德斯 AMG 的高水平合作獲得了 PACE 創新合作夥伴獎，我們高度集成的 3-in- 1 輪和電驅動，將電機、變速箱和逆變器集成並集成到緊湊的功率密集型功能中。該技術適用於從緊湊型汽車到輕型商用車上的全 eBeam 軸應用的多個車輛細分市場，併計劃於 2024 年與客戶一起推出。

These 3 PACE awards add to the 2 PACE awards that AAM received in 2020 for our advanced electric drive unit and OEM collaboration. In a span of approximately 2 years, we have been recognized with 5 PACE awards related to our electrification technology.

這 3 個 PACE 獎項是 AAM 在 2020 年因我們先進的電驅動裝置和 OEM 合作而獲得的 2 個 PACE 獎項的補充。在大約 2 年的時間裡，我們獲得了 5 項與電氣化技術相關的 PACE 獎項。

In addition to the great -- in electrification, we continue to win significant new business on our conventional programs. AAM was selected as a new axle supplier for the GM Colorado and Canyon vehicles beginning in model year 2023. These are very exciting vehicles, and we're proud to partner with GM on this important vehicle segment.

除了電氣化方面的偉大成就外，我們還在傳統項目中繼續贏得重要的新業務。從 2023 年款開始，AAM 被選為 GM Colorado 和 Canyon 車輛的新車橋供應商。這些都是非常令人興奮的車輛，我們很自豪能與 GM 在這個重要的車輛領域合作。

Our wins are not limited to North America. Chery Automobile Company Limited has selected AAM to supply power transfer units and rear drive modules for its new SUV program. Although we are limited on the details of what we can share, this new SUV is fantastic and is well positioned to add upon Chery's success and expand our customer and revenue base in a very important market.

我們的勝利不僅限於北美。奇瑞汽車有限公司已選擇 AAM 為其新 SUV 項目提供動力傳輸單元和後驅動模塊。雖然我們可以分享的細節有限，但這款新 SUV 非常棒，並且有能力為奇瑞的成功增添光彩，並在一個非常重要的市場擴大我們的客戶和收入基礎。

Now let's talk about our guidance on Slide 7. We have updated our financial outlook to reflect the best information we have available and to take into consideration the current operating environment. AAM is now targeting sales of $5.75 billion to $5.85 billion compared to what we had earlier communicated at $5.75 billion to $5.95 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $745 million to $765 million compared to $790 million to $830 million previously and adjusted free cash flow of approximately $300 million compared to $300 million to $350 million previously.

現在讓我們談談我們對幻燈片 7 的指導。我們更新了我們的財務展望，以反映我們現有的最佳信息，並考慮到當前的運營環境。 AAM 現在的目標銷售額為 57.5 億美元至 58.5 億美元，而我們之前的目標是 57.5 億美元至 59.5 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 約為 7.45 億美元至 7.65 億美元，而之前為 7.9 億至 8.3 億美元，調整後的自由現金流約為 300 美元億美元，而此前為 3 億至 3.5 億美元。

From an end market perspective, in addition to normal production seasonality, fewer production days in the fourth quarter versus third quarter, we expect the fourth quarter operating environment to be very similar to that, that we experienced here in the third quarter including the continuation of higher than previously anticipated volatility in truck production. Already here in the fourth quarter, we have received numerous schedule adjustments as customers have reduced shifts, lowered overtime and outright cancel production relative to prior plants.

從終端市場的角度來看，除了正常的生產季節性，第四季度的生產天數比第三季度更少，我們預計第四季度的運營環境將與我們在第三季度經歷的情況非常相似，包括繼續卡車生產的波動性高於此前預期。在第四季度，由於客戶減少了班次、減少了加班時間並完全取消了相對於之前工廠的生產，我們已經收到了許多計劃調整。

That stated, during these turbulent times, AAM is very focused on the core operational values that differentiate us from the other suppliers through the cycle. We will adhere to smart cost control and look to improve efficiency. We will maintain the high quality of our products, achieve on-time delivery and support the continuity of supply to our customers. At the same time, we'll continue to invest in electrification and new mobility. Although no two cycles are alike, we underscore that the AAM team has deep industry experience and is confident in successfully navigating the near-term environment.

也就是說，在這些動盪時期，AAM 非常關注核心運營價值觀，這些價值觀使我們在整個週期中有別於其他供應商。堅持精控成本，著力提升效率。我們將保持產品的高質量，實現準時交貨，並支持對客戶的持續供應。同時，我們將繼續投資於電氣化和新型機動性。儘管沒有兩個週期是相同的，但我們強調 AAM 團隊擁有深厚的行業經驗，並且有信心在近期環境中取得成功。

In conclusion, our aim is on the future, and we will continue to focus on generating strong free cash flow, strengthening our balance sheet, securing our traditional and next-generation business, advancing our electrification product portfolio and positioning AAM for profitable growth, especially in the area of electrification, while building shareholder value.

總之，我們的目標是面向未來，我們將繼續專注於產生強勁的自由現金流，加強我們的資產負債表，確保我們的傳統和下一代業務，推進我們的電氣化產品組合，並將 AAM 定位為盈利增長，尤其是在電氣化領域，同時創造股東價值。

Let me now turn the call over to our Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May. Chris?

現在讓我將電話轉交給我們的副總裁兼首席財務官克里斯梅。克里斯？

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. I will cover the financial details of our third quarter results for you today. I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments. So let's go ahead and begin with sales.

謝謝你，大衛，大家早上好。我今天將為您介紹我們第三季度業績的財務細節。我還將參考收益幻燈片作為我準備好的評論的一部分。因此，讓我們繼續並從銷售開始。

In the third quarter of 2022, AAM sales were $1.54 billion compared to $1.21 billion in the third quarter of 2021. Slide 9 shows a walk of third quarter 2021 sales to third quarter 2022 sales. First, we account for the change in the year-over-year impact from semiconductors and supply chain challenges. While we continue to be significantly impacted by this issue, we did experienced a year-over-year lower negative impact, which we estimate added approximately $136 million of sales in the quarter. Positive volume mix and other was $113 million, and the Tekfor acquisition contributed $92 million to sales. And lastly, metal market pass-throughs and FX lowered net sales by approximately $10 million, with metal up and FX lower inside of that net number.

2022 年第三季度，AAM 的銷售額為 15.4 億美元，而 2021 年第三季度為 12.1 億美元。幻燈片 9 顯示了 2021 年第三季度銷售額與 2022 年第三季度銷售額的對比。首先，我們考慮了半導體和供應鏈挑戰帶來的同比影響的變化。雖然我們繼續受到此問題的重大影響，但我們確實經歷了同比較低的負面影響，我們估計本季度增加了約 1.36 億美元的銷售額。正銷量組合和其他為 1.13 億美元，收購 Tekfor 貢獻了 9200 萬美元的銷售額。最後，金屬市場傳遞和外匯使淨銷售額減少了大約 1000 萬美元，其中金屬上漲和外匯下跌在該淨數字內。

Now let's move on to profitability. Gross profit was $177.4 million in the third quarter of 2022 as compared to $165.6 million in the third quarter of 2021. Adjusted EBITDA was $198.4 million in the third quarter of 2022 versus $183.2 million last year.

現在讓我們繼續討論盈利能力。 2022 年第三季度的毛利潤為 1.774 億美元，而 2021 年第三季度為 1.656 億美元。2022 年第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.984 億美元，而去年同期為 1.832 億美元。

Please refer to our adjusted EBITDA walk on Slide 10. In the quarter, the year-over-year change in semiconductor availability and volume mix and other added $43 million and $13 million, respectively, to adjusted EBITDA. Third quarter material, freight and utility inflation, net of customer recoveries, negatively impacted EBITDA by $12 million. This pacing is consistent with our full year estimate and continued progress of recoveries with customers. R&D was slightly higher by approximately $1 million and continues to run in the range of $35 million to $40 million per quarter.

請參閱我們在幻燈片 10 上調整後的 EBITDA 步調。本季度，半導體可用性和銷量組合以及其他方面的同比變化分別為調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 4300 萬美元和 1300 萬美元。第三季度材料、運費和公用事業通貨膨脹（扣除客戶回收）對 EBITDA 產生了 1200 萬美元的負面影響。這一步伐與我們的全年估計和客戶恢復的持續進展一致。研發費用略高約 100 萬美元，並繼續保持在每季度 3500 萬至 4000 萬美元的範圍內。

With a full quarter of Tekfor in our third quarter 2022 results, the acquisition contributed approximately $9 million of EBITDA inside the quarter. During the latter part of the quarter, we experienced a significant drop in key metal market indexes that are an input component of our products, in particular, scrap steel indexes. As we have described previously, as rates change, there is a valuation and cost timing for customers, suppliers and internal inventory to run at new levels. That is what's happening here and understanding this detailed point is important.

憑藉我們 2022 年第三季度業績中 Tekfor 的整個季度，此次收購在本季度內貢獻了約 900 萬美元的 EBITDA。在本季度後期，作為我們產品輸入成分的主要金屬市場指數大幅下跌，尤其是廢鋼指數。正如我們之前所描述的，隨著費率的變化，客戶、供應商和內部庫存的估值和成本時間會在新的水平上運行。這就是這裡發生的事情，理解這個細節點很重要。

As a result of this rapid index drop of nearly 39% from July 1 to September 30, we experienced the opposite effect on our inventory valuations and cost of goods sold versus what we realized in the second quarter of 2021 when rates rapidly increased. You may recall that we shared with you at that time there was a $16 million positive benefit inside the second quarter of 2021 for this dynamic. Conversely, as prices rapidly declined in the quarter, we effectively expensed inventory that was purchased at a higher level through our P&L.

由於該指數從 7 月 1 日到 9 月 30 日迅速下跌近 39%，我們對庫存估值和銷售成本的影響與我們在 2021 年第二季度利率迅速上漲時所實現的相反。您可能還記得，我們當時與您分享過，2021 年第二季度，這一動態帶來了 1600 萬美元的積極收益。相反，隨著本季度價格迅速下跌，我們通過損益表有效地將以更高水平購買的庫存計入費用。

Let me now cover SG&A. SG&A expense, including R&D, in the third quarter of 2022 was $85.7 million or 5.6% of sales. This compares to $90.5 million or 7.5% of sales in the third quarter of 2021. This is a 190 basis point improvement. AAM's R&D spending in the third quarter of 2022 was $35.4 million compared to $34.7 million last year. We continue to control our SG&A costs while efficiently investing in R&D to advance our next-generation electric drive platforms.

現在讓我介紹 SG&A。 2022 年第三季度，包括研發在內的 SG&A 費用為 8570 萬美元，佔銷售額的 5.6%。相比之下，2021 年第三季度銷售額為 9050 萬美元，佔銷售額的 7.5%。提高了 190 個基點。 AAM 在 2022 年第三季度的研發支出為 3540 萬美元，而去年為 3470 萬美元。我們繼續控制我們的 SG&A 成本，同時有效地投資於研發以推進我們的下一代電驅動平台。

Let's move on to interest and taxes. Net interest expense was $39.4 million in the third quarter of 2022 compared to $47 million in the third quarter of 2021. We continue to benefit from debt reduction and previous refinancing actions in the form of lower interest costs. In the third quarter of 2022, we recorded an income tax benefit of $5.7 million compared to a benefit of $13.6 million in the third quarter of 2021. The benefit in the quarter was a result of a mix of earnings and valuation allowances on a jurisdictional basis. For the balance of the year, we expect our effective adjusted tax rate to be approximately 10% to 15% and we would expect cash taxes to be in the range of $40 million to $45 million.

讓我們繼續討論利息和稅收。 2022 年第三季度的淨利息支出為 3940 萬美元，而 2021 年第三季度為 4700 萬美元。我們繼續以較低的利息成本形式受益於債務減少和之前的再融資行動。 2022 年第三季度，我們錄得 570 萬美元的所得稅收益，而 2021 年第三季度為 1360 萬美元。本季度的收益是基於管轄範圍的收入和估值津貼的混合結果.對於今年的餘額，我們預計我們的有效調整稅率約為 10% 至 15%，我們預計現金稅將在 4000 萬至 4500 萬美元之間。

Taking all of these sales and cost drivers into account, our GAAP net income was $26.5 million or $0.22 per share in the third quarter of 2022 compared to a net loss of $2.4 million or $0.02 per share in the third quarter of 2021. Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impacts of items noted in our earnings press release, it was $0.27 per share in the third quarter of 2022 compared to $0.15 per share in the third quarter of 2021.

將所有這些銷售和成本驅動因素考慮在內，我們 2022 年第三季度的 GAAP 淨收入為 2650 萬美元或每股 0.22 美元，而 2021 年第三季度的淨虧損為 240 萬美元或每股 0.02 美元。調整後的每股收益不包括我們的收益新聞稿中提到的項目的影響，2022 年第三季度每股收益為 0.27 美元，而 2021 年第三季度為每股 0.15 美元。

Let's now move on to cash flow and the balance sheet. Net cash provided by operating activities for the third quarter of 2022 was $85.2 million. Capital expenditures, net of the proceeds from the sale of property, plant and equipment for the third quarter of 2022 were $46.6 million. Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the third quarter of 2022 were $4.7 million and cash payments related to the Malvern fire we experienced in September of 2020, net of recoveries was $2.5 million in the quarter. In total, we continue to expect approximately $30 million to $40 million in restructuring and acquisition-related costs in 2022.

現在讓我們繼續討論現金流量和資產負債表。 2022 年第三季度經營活動提供的現金淨額為 8520 萬美元。 2022 年第三季度資本支出扣除出售物業、廠房和設備所得款項後為 4660 萬美元。 2022 年第三季度重組和收購相關活動的現金支付為 470 萬美元，與我們在 2020 年 9 月經歷的 Malvern 火災相關的現金支付（扣除回收後）為 250 萬美元。總體而言，我們繼續預計 2022 年的重組和收購相關成本約為 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元。

Reflecting the impact of these activities, AAM generated adjusted free cash flow of $45.8 million in the third quarter of 2022. From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the quarter with a net debt of $2.5 billion and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $754.2 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 3.3x at September 30. This is down from a leverage ratio of 3.4x at June 30. In addition, as David mentioned earlier, we paid an additional $50 million down on our Term Loan B inside of the quarter. We expect to continue to strengthen AAM's balance sheet by reducing our gross debt and lowering future interest payments. Year-to-date, we reduced our total debt by approximately $100 million.

反映這些活動的影響，AAM 在 2022 年第三季度產生了 4580 萬美元的調整後自由現金流。從債務槓桿的角度來看，我們在本季度結束時的淨債務為 25 億美元，LTM 調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.542 億美元，計算9 月 30 日的淨槓桿率為 3.3 倍。這低於 6 月 30 日的 3.4 倍槓桿率。此外，正如大衛之前提到的，我們在本季度內為我們的定期貸款 B 額外支付了 5000 萬美元。我們希望通過減少我們的總債務和降低未來的利息支付來繼續加強 AAM 的資產負債表。年初至今，我們的總債務減少了大約 1 億美元。

Before we move on to Q&A, let me close out my comments with some perspectives on our 2022 financial outlook. As you can see from our press release, we have updated our outlook to $5.75 billion to $5.8 billion of sales, $745 million to $765 million of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow target of approximately $300 million. We reduced our top end sales by $100 million and at the midpoint, $50 million. The sales decline is driven by greater production volatility versus our prior forecast, primarily in key light truck platforms we support. By way of figures, our current forecast estimate is approximately 50,000 to 100,000 full-sized truck units lower in the second half of 2022 versus our previous guidance. On a sales per production day basis, we would expect the fourth quarter to be very similar or slightly lower to that of what we experienced in the third quarter.

在我們繼續進行問答之前，讓我以對 2022 年財務前景的一些觀點結束我的評論。正如您從我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們已將我們的前景更新為 57.5 億美元至 58 億美元的銷售額，7.45 億美元至 7.65 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和調整後的自由現金流目標約 3 億美元。我們將高端銷售額減少了 1 億美元，中點銷售額減少了 5000 萬美元。銷售額下降的原因是產量波動幅度大於我們之前的預測，主要是我們支持的主要輕型卡車平台。通過數字，我們目前的預測估計是 2022 年下半年的全尺寸卡車比我們之前的指導低約 50,000 至 100,000 輛。在每個生產日的銷售額基礎上，我們預計第四季度與第三季度的情況非常相似或略低。

As for the new adjusted EBITDA targets, the midpoint change can be summarized as follows: Loss contribution margin of approximately $30 million on lower net sales, which reflects the weighting impact of a high concentration mix of lower full-size trucks, the impact of metal costs and related Q3 inventory absorption impact of $20 million and a net amount of inefficiency of $5 million to $10 million due to this volatility.

至於新調整後的 EBITDA 目標，中點變化可概括如下：淨銷售額下降導致的虧損邊際貢獻約為 3000 萬美元，這反映了較低全尺寸卡車的高度集中組合的權重影響，金屬的影響由於這種波動，成本和相關的第三季度庫存吸收影響為 2000 萬美元，效率低下淨額為 500 萬至 1000 萬美元。

What is really important to note here, once production is more stable and predictable, these issues will most likely not be with us. In addition, with lower metal market pricing on select commodities, once we pass through this life period, this should be very good for AAM. Lastly, our cash flow conversion remains strong as evidenced by our guidance and continues to be a priority for the company.

這裡真正需要注意的是，一旦生產更加穩定和可預測，這些問題很可能不會出現在我們身上。此外，由於特定商品的金屬市場定價較低，一旦我們度過這個生命週期，這對 AAM 來說應該是非常好的。最後，正如我們的指導所證明的那樣，我們的現金流轉換仍然強勁，並且仍然是公司的優先事項。

So in conclusion, we'll continue to focus on what we can control, including driving optimization, successfully negotiating customer recoveries, integrating the Tekfor acquisition, developing class-leading electrification technology and positioning AAM for 2023 and executing on our capital allocation plan.

因此，總而言之，我們將繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情，包括推動優化、成功談判客戶恢復、整合對 Tekfor 的收購、開發一流的電氣化技術和為 2023 年定位 AAM 以及執行我們的資本配置計劃。

Thank you for your time and participation on the call today. I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David so we can start the Q&A.

感謝您抽出時間參加今天的電話會議。我要在這裡停下來，把電話轉回給大衛，這樣我們就可以開始問答環節了。

Thank you, Chris and David. We have reserved some time to take questions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝克里斯和大衛。我們預留了一些時間來回答問題。 （操作員說明）

(Operator Instructions) And the first question will be from Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）第一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

Could you maybe give an update on the pace and progress of negotiations with customers to recover premium noncommodity costs? I think maybe you'd already been a little less impacted by higher commodity costs because you've had an above-average level of pass-through arrangements in your country, but nobody had anything in there with regards to the noncommodity costs to -- is the pricing still negative? I don't know -- what do you think the outlook is for that going forward? And would just love to get your take on -- I know you have less exposure to Ford, but I guess they handed out $1 billion in the quarter, which allowed some other companies to beat maybe the automakers that you're in discussions with, you have more exposure to might be a little bit taking a different cadence of reimbursement or something. Just how should we think about this issue?

您能否提供有關與客戶談判以收回溢價非商品成本的最新進展和進展情況？我想也許你受商品成本上漲的影響已經小一些，因為你在你的國家有高於平均水平的轉嫁安排，但沒有人在非商品成本方面有任何東西 -定價仍然是負數嗎？我不知道——你認為未來的前景如何？並且很想听聽你的看法——我知道你對福特的了解較少，但我猜他們在本季度發放了 10 億美元，這讓其他一些公司可能擊敗了你正在與之討論的汽車製造商，您有更多的接觸機會可能會採取不同的報銷節奏或其他方式。究竟應該如何看待這個問題？

Brian, this is David. I'll make some initial comments, then if Chris wants to chime in, he can. But as we've said, and I said in my prepared remarks, we continue to make meaningful progress with all of our customers on a global basis with respect to some of the commercial and economic recoveries. We clearly have some more work to do just based on the continued level of increases that keep coming into our company. I would characterize the discussions as being very fair and balanced with our customers, some better than others. But at the same time, overall, I think, balanced and we definitely are on track with what we said we would do in this area.

布賴恩，這是大衛。我將發表一些初步意見，然後如果 Chris 想插話，他可以。但正如我們已經說過的，我在準備好的發言中也說過，我們繼續在全球範圍內與所有客戶就一些商業和經濟復甦取得有意義的進展。基於我們公司不斷增加的持續增長水平，我們顯然還有更多工作要做。我認為與我們的客戶進行的討論非常公平和平衡，有些客戶比其他客戶更好。但與此同時，我認為，總體而言，我們是平衡的，我們肯定會按照我們所說的在這一領域要做的事情走上正軌。

A big challenge that we're still facing as an organization and as an industry is, especially the energy and the utility issues, especially in the European market. That's a big issue that we're going to have to continue to address as we go forward here. But overall, I'd characterize them as being fair and balanced discussions, meaningful progress made, but more work to do.

作為一個組織和一個行業，我們仍然面臨著一個巨大的挑戰，尤其是能源和公用事業問題，尤其是在歐洲市場。這是一個大問題，我們在前進的過程中將不得不繼續解決這個問題。但總的來說，我認為它們是公平和平衡的討論，取得了有意義的進展，但還有更多工作要做。

Yes. Ryan, this is Chris. I would offer a couple of other data points to align in with your question. I know you made some reference to some activity here inside of the third quarter. I would refer you back to some of our previous commentary on this, where in the first quarter of this year, we were almost $30 million off from an inflation standpoint on that topic. And you noticed we close that gap pretty meaningfully inside of the second quarter with a lot of our customers, almost cut that exposure in half, and we've been now running at that kind of much lower rate due to those negotiations in the first half of the year.

是的。瑞安，這是克里斯。我會提供一些其他數據點來與您的問題保持一致。我知道你提到了第三季度這裡的一些活動。我會讓你回顧一下我們之前對此的一些評論，在今年第一季度，從該主題的通脹角度來看，我們已經減少了近 3000 萬美元。你注意到我們在第二季度與我們的許多客戶非常有意義地縮小了這一差距，幾乎將風險敞口減少了一半，而且由於上半年的談判，我們現在一直以這種低得多的速度運行的一年。

And then secondarily, you also commented on the pricing element inside of our walks. This is our annual year-over-year long-term negotiated pricing arrangements with our customers. We stepped into this year, we told you it'd be around $40 million. This is just consistent with that. That's outside the scope of the economic recoveries that you're referring to.

其次，您還評論了我們散步中的定價因素。這是我們與客戶的年度同比長期協商定價安排。我們進入今年，我們告訴過你它大約是 4000 萬美元。這正好符合那個。這超出了您所指的經濟復甦的範圍。

Okay. Great. And could you just maybe comment, last question, a bit more on the Chevrolet Colorado GMC Canyon win. It's an important one, I think. It's a conquest. And a lot of what's been going on at Axle the last number of years has had do in part with your relationship with GM, their decision to in-source a portion of their full-size truck platform and then later with their strategy around OTM drive. So you're still winning business there. What does this say about the relationship with them and how it could potentially evolve over time?

好的。偉大的。最後一個問題，您能否評論一下雪佛蘭科羅拉多 GMC Canyon 的勝利。我認為這是一個重要的問題。這是一場征服。過去幾年在 Axle 發生的很多事情在一定程度上與您與通用汽車的關係有關，他們決定內購部分全尺寸卡車平台，然後是他們圍繞 OTM 驅動的戰略.所以你仍然在那裡贏得業務。這說明與他們的關係如何以及隨著時間的推移可能會如何演變？

So Ryan, this is David. We have a very strong relationship with General Motors. We value the relationship that we have with them. We've had a strategic partnership for well over 25-plus years. We're their largest driveline supplier. We're honored to pick up this Colorado Canyon business. We conquested this from our largest competitor in this space. It's an important vehicle segment that continues to do very well in the marketplace. So we're excited to launch it next year, which is great.

瑞安，這是大衛。我們與通用汽車公司有著非常牢固的關係。我們重視與他們的關係。我們建立了超過 25 年的戰略合作夥伴關係。我們是他們最大的動力傳動系統供應商。我們很榮幸接手科羅拉多峽谷業務。我們從這個領域最大的競爭對手那裡戰勝了它。這是一個重要的汽車細分市場，在市場上繼續表現出色。所以我們很高興明年推出它，這很棒。

At the same time, we've been GM Supplier of the Year 6 years in a row. So they look to us with solid operating experience and performance and technology leadership and outstanding quality, much like many of the other OEMs do. We expect a long-term positive relationship with General Motors going forward including activity on electrification. And that's about all I can really say at this point in time.

同時，我們已連續 6 年獲得通用汽車年度最佳供應商稱號。因此，他們希望我們擁有紮實的運營經驗、性能和技術領先地位以及卓越的品質，就像許多其他原始設備製造商所做的那樣。我們期待與通用汽車建立長期的積極關係，包括電氣化方面的活動。這就是我此時此刻真正能說的。

But we're highly confident in our technology, we feel very good about our relationship with General Motors, and we'll continue to look to maintain and strengthen that relationship as we go forward.

但我們對我們的技術充滿信心，我們對與通用汽車的關係感覺非常好，我們將繼續尋求維持和加強這種關係。

The next question is from John Murphy from Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

I just wanted to follow up on the outlook here. I mean a number of times you alluded in the call that the fourth quarter would be similar to the third quarter, and then you gave us some puts and takes. So I appreciate that.

我只是想跟進這裡的前景。我的意思是你在電話中多次提到第四季度將與第三季度相似，然後你給了我們一些看跌期權。所以我很感激。

But I mean, as you think about your key product volumes in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, are you saying they're going to be relatively similar? And then Chris, you said there were some negatives on the contribution margin side or the EBITDA side of $30 million in contribution margin, $20 million on metals and then $5 million to $10 million on volatility that would kind of indicate all else equal, that you're looking for sort of $60 million lower on EBITDA versus, I think, the third quarter, right? And the third -- the fourth quarter implied EBITDA is $155 million to $175 million. So I mean that would take us down to the 140-ish range, and you're applying $155 million to $175 million. So there might be some good guys that are occurring in there. So really just kind of if you can help us walk or kind of explain what you're thinking about on the sequential third quarter to fourth quarter on the top line and then on this EBITDA line as well.

但我的意思是，當你考慮第四季度與第三季度的關鍵產品銷量時，你是說它們會相對相似嗎？然後克里斯，你說邊際貢獻或 EBITDA 方面有一些負面影響，邊際貢獻為 3000 萬美元，金屬為 2000 萬美元，然後是波動性為 500 萬至 1000 萬美元，這表明其他條件相同，你與我認為的第三季度相比，我們希望 EBITDA 降低 6000 萬美元，對嗎？第三 - 第四季度隱含的 EBITDA 為 1.55 億美元至 1.75 億美元。所以我的意思是，這將使我們下降到 140 左右的範圍，而你正在申請 1.55 億美元到 1.75 億美元。所以那裡可能會出現一些好人。所以真的只是一種如果你能幫助我們走路或解釋你在連續第三季度到第四季度的收入以及這條 EBITDA 線上的想法。

Yes, certainly, John. When I -- let me just sort of recalibrate. When I articulated the guidance walk of the volume and mix, the inventory and a little bit of efficiency, that was for the full year. That was not just the fourth quarter. So I was articulating the elements that were going on inside of our third quarter and fourth quarter combined walk in to our previous guidance to our current guidance from a full year perspective, not just the fourth quarter. So that would be sort of point one.

是的，當然，約翰。當我——讓我重新校準一下。當我闡明數量和組合、庫存和一點效率的指導方針時，那是針對全年的。那不僅僅是第四季度。因此，我從全年的角度，而不僅僅是第四季度，闡明了我們第三季度和第四季度內部發生的因素，這些因素結合了我們之前對當前指導的指導。所以這將是第一點。

But if you think about going from Q3 into Q4, our commentary on a production day basis, so think about the fourth quarter has 3 or 4 less production days than the third quarter, we would expect our revenues on a production day basis or our volumes to be similar to the third quarter, but holistically, collectively for the quarter would be less because of less production days, if that makes sense.

但是如果你考慮從第三季度到第四季度，我們對生產日的評論，那麼想想第四季度的生產天數比第三季度少 3 或 4 天，我們預計我們的收入將基於生產天數或我們的產量與第三季度相似，但從整體上看，由於生產天數減少，本季度的總產量會減少，如果這是有道理的話。

So as we walk from Q3 to Q4, I mean, the element obviously would be lower volume and mix just holistically with the lower production days that I just articulated with you. We should see some benefit with the absence of that inventory absorption issue kind of somewhat behind us. We'll experience probably a little bit more of that if metal continues to come down inside of the fourth quarter, and then that will be behind us. You take those two elements and then you got some puts and takes around the horn on a variety of other elements that are pretty close to get you walking to our midpoint of that range.

因此，當我們從第 3 季度走到第 4 季度時，我的意思是，該元素顯然會降低產量，並與我剛剛與您闡述的較低生產日相結合。我們應該看到一些好處，因為我們有點落後於缺乏庫存吸收問題。如果金屬在第四季度繼續下跌，我們可能會經歷更多，然後我們就會過去。你拿了這兩個元素，然後你得到了一些看跌期權，並在各種其他元素上繞過號角，這些元素非常接近讓你走到我們那個範圍的中點。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just to follow up, on the 50,000 to 100,000 trucks that you think are going to be out of the schedule in the fourth quarter that could have been in the schedule because of supply chain disruptions, do you think that will be made up quickly as we get into early 2023? Or is this a thing where these get -- put on the side or those -- that production run just gets put off indeterminately?

好的。這很有幫助。然後只是跟進，關於你認為在第四季度將不在計劃中的 50,000 到 100,000 輛卡車，這些卡車可能由於供應鏈中斷而在計劃中，你認為這會很快彌補嗎當我們進入 2023 年初時？還是這些東西——放在一邊或那些——生產運行只是被不確定地推遲？

Yes. So I would tell you, on the 50,000 to 100,000 truck reference that you made, again, that was for the entire back half of the year, so second half of the year versus our previous thought 90 days ago. We experienced some of that decline in the third quarter, and we're obviously projecting a little bit of that decline versus our previous estimate inside of the fourth quarter. But as David mentioned on his prepared remarks, right, we continue to see expectation of demand for those full-size vehicles and how their production schedules came into next year, I think it's a little too early to call, but we're still holistically building those platforms. It's across multiple customers as we think of 2023 and beyond.

是的。所以我會告訴你，關於你提出的 50,000 到 100,000 輛卡車參考，那是整個下半年，所以今年下半年與我們 90 天前的想法相比。我們在第三季度經歷了一些下降，我們顯然預計與我們之前在第四季度的估計相比會出現一些下降。但正如大衛在他準備好的發言中提到的那樣，我們繼續看到對這些全尺寸車輛的需求預期以及明年的生產計劃，我認為現在下結論還為時過早，但我們仍然整體上構建這些平台。考慮到 2023 年及以後，它涉及多個客戶。

But you understand that's pure supply chain disruption, it has nothing to do with inventory building in the channel with the dealers who're in transit, this is purely supply chain issues. Is that...

但是你知道那是純粹的供應鏈中斷，它與運輸途中的經銷商在渠道中建立庫存無關，這純粹是供應鏈問題。就是它...

Yes, John -- John, this is David. I mean the three big things impacting all of us in the industry right now, clearly, semiconductors, but the supply chain issues themselves have become a much greater issue, and those supply chain challenges are really driven because of labor shortage or labor availability issues that are out there.

是的，約翰——約翰，這是大衛。我的意思是目前影響我們所有人的三大行業，很明顯，半導體，但供應鏈問題本身已經成為一個更大的問題，而這些供應鏈挑戰實際上是由勞動力短缺或勞動力可用性問題驅動的在外面。

I do expect there's still a pent-up demand for these products that are out there. I do think the OEMs will continue to balance in the desired inventory levels that they want to put in place in order to continue to benefit from the transaction pricing that they have and lower incentives. But at the same time, they've got to replenish the shortage in inventory that's out there. And that's why I think this pent-up demand will continue.

我確實預計對這些現有產品仍有被壓抑的需求。我確實認為原始設備製造商將繼續平衡他們想要達到的理想庫存水平，以便繼續從他們擁有的交易定價和較低的激勵中獲益。但與此同時，他們必須補充現有的庫存短缺。這就是為什麼我認為這種被壓抑的需求將繼續存在的原因。

It's just -- the big issue really just comes down to us getting stability back in the supply chain so that they can consistently run their facilities on a normal basis versus the volatility that we're experiencing and no immediate notice on shutdowns, which creates a lot of problem for the supply base, AAM included.

這只是 - 真正的大問題歸結為我們讓供應鏈恢復穩定，以便他們能夠始終如一地正常運行他們的設施，而不是我們正在經歷的波動並且沒有立即通知關閉，這造成了供應基地有很多問題，包括 AAM。

The next question is from Rod Lache with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Rod Lache 和 Wolfe Research。

David, I'm not asking you to comment on GKN specifically. You already told us that you won't. But I just wanted to get your thoughts on how you're thinking about the market strategically. Do you think that broader consolidation is worth exploring? Do you think it happens over time? Because the last time a combination of driveline suppliers was proposed, the synergies were pretty big. So I just wanted to get a high-level -- just how are you thinking about the market and how things kind of play out in the space?

大衛，我不是要你專門評論 GKN。你已經告訴我們你不會了。但我只是想了解您如何從戰略上考慮市場。您認為更廣泛的整合值得探索嗎？你認為它會隨著時間的推移而發生嗎？因為上次提出了動力傳動系統供應商的組合，所以協同效應非常大。所以我只是想得到一個高層次的——你是如何看待市場的，以及這個領域的事情是如何發生的？

Yes, as I've said before, and you and I have talked, I mean, I still believe that there will be consolidation that will take place in the auto space, both from an OEM standpoint. You're already starting to see that, or select partnerships that are coming together because everyone can afford to do things on their own and try to -- manage current ICE business as well as the transition to electrification and mobility. I think you'll see further consolidation within the supply base.

是的，正如我之前所說，你和我已經談過，我的意思是，我仍然相信汽車領域將會發生整合，無論是從 OEM 的角度來看。你已經開始看到這一點，或者選擇正在走到一起的合作夥伴關係，因為每個人都有能力自己做事並嘗試——管理當前的 ICE 業務以及向電氣化和機動性的過渡。我認為你會看到供應基地內的進一步整合。

As we've said all along, we want to be a consolidator. At the same time, we're going to manage our priorities based on a capital allocation standpoint. And our focus right now is supporting our organic growth and our strength in our balance sheet. At the same time, you've seen us take strategic actions from an inorganic standpoint, but within our capital structure, with the recent things that we've done with the Tekfor acquisition and some previous things before them. But again, I do think there'll be consolidation in the space. I think it's going to be healthy for the industry when it's all said and done. But that's about all I can really say or comment on at this point in time.

正如我們一直所說的，我們想成為一個整合者。與此同時，我們將根據資本配置的觀點來管理我們的優先事項。我們現在的重點是支持我們的有機增長和我們在資產負債表上的實力。與此同時，你已經看到我們從無機的角度採取戰略行動，但在我們的資本結構內，我們最近通過收購 Tekfor 所做的事情以及之前的一些事情。但同樣，我確實認為該領域會出現整合。我認為當一切都說完之後，這對行業來說將是健康的。但這就是我此時此刻真正能說或評論的全部內容。

Okay. I appreciate that. And I wanted to ask just to clarify that I'm seeing in Q4 year-over-year revenue growth from $1.2 billion last year to $1.4 billion this year and it looks like kind of similar, maybe just a tad lower revenue in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, but you also had that $20 million inventory charge in the third quarter. So just -- I'm just curious about what am I missing that drives the sequential decline in EBITDA?

好的。我很感激。我想澄清一下，我看到第四季度的收入同比增長從去年的 12 億美元增加到今年的 14 億美元，看起來有點相似，第四季度的收入可能略有下降與第三季度相比，但您在第三季度也有 2000 萬美元的庫存費用。所以只是 - 我只是好奇我錯過了什麼導致 EBITDA 連續下降？

Sequential decline. Are you referring to Q4...

依次下降。你指的是第四季度...

Look, either -- look -- Q4 of last year to this year, I mean, you have higher revenue, but similar EBITDA. And then sequentially, it looks like similar revenue, but lower EBITDA. So either way, would just be helpful to get a little bit of a bridge from you.

看，要么——看——去年第四季度到今年，我的意思是，你有更高的收入，但 EBITDA 相似。然後順序地，看起來收入相似，但 EBITDA 較低。因此，無論哪種方式，都有助於從您那裡獲得一點橋樑。

Sure. Well, if you think -- let's start with the sequential -- Q3 to Q4. At the midpoint, our revenues are implied to be down from the third quarter, over $100 million down. So it's sizable from a volume and mix perspective. So that is the key negative driver inside the sequential walk between Q3 and Q4. You do get a benefit of the reversal of that inventory absorption benefit and net everything else, there's a small puts and takes around the horn that sort of (inaudible) right into the midpoint of our guidance.

當然。好吧，如果你認為 - 讓我們從順序開始 - Q3 到 Q4。從中點來看，我們的收入預計比第三季度下降超過 1 億美元。所以從數量和混合的角度來看，它是相當大的。因此，這是第三季度和第四季度之間順序走動中的關鍵負面驅動因素。你確實從庫存吸收收益的逆轉中獲益並淨賺了其他所有東西，有一個小的看跌期權並繞過喇叭，那種（聽不清）正好進入我們指導的中點。

If you think about Q4 of last year into Q4 of this year, very similar, as you mentioned, volume and mix is up. But don't forget this year, we do have those net inflationary factors that we've talked about. We've been running that $10 million to $15 million a quarter now since the second quarter of this year. FX and metal still while declining down is up from last year. And you may recall in the fourth quarter of last year, our R&D expense was very low. We had a favorable benefit of some customer reimbursements for that, that we're not expecting to occur here in the fourth quarter of this year. And then we got some -- a little bit of favorable productivity that will drive it up a little bit from there on a year-over-year basis. That's how I would think about last fourth quarter to this fourth quarter.

如果你考慮去年第四季度到今年第四季度，非常相似，正如你提到的，數量和組合都在增加。但不要忘記今年，我們確實有我們談到的那些淨通脹因素。自今年第二季度以來，我們每季度的運營成本一直在 1000 萬至 1500 萬美元之間。外彙和金屬仍在下降，但比去年有所上升。你可能還記得去年第四季度，我們的研發費用非常低。我們從一些客戶報銷中獲得了有利的好處，我們預計不會在今年第四季度發生。然後我們得到了一些 - 一點點有利的生產力，這將推動它在同比基礎上略有提高。這就是我對上個第四季度到這個第四季度的看法。

The next question is from James Picariello from BNP Paribas.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello。

Can you just confirm -- so what is the full year commodities impact now with the additional $20 million you set within the guidance?

您能否確認 - 那麼現在全年商品的影響是什麼以及您在指導中設定的額外 2000 萬美元？

Commodity.

商品。

Commodity impact. Yes. So we have experienced -- through the first -- we do disclose this as a standalone item inside of our year-over-year loss from a combined FX and combined -- with our metals in terms of productivity. So sales impact was $56 million, profit was down $26 million. So that was excluding the $20 million inventory item. So that inventory item would be on top of that. And then right now, some metal indexes are starting to trend down into the fourth quarter, like I mentioned, scrap steel. But some of them have not, like aluminum continue to sort of hang around sort of the consistent level over the past couple of months. Magnesium is also in a very similar spot. Those are key inputs for us. So we've not disclosed the specific amount for the fourth quarter, but that's where we've been trending. They've been trending down a little bit holistically for us.

商品影響。是的。因此，我們已經經歷過 - 通過第一個 - 我們確實將其作為一個獨立項目披露在我們的綜合外彙和綜合的同比損失中 - 與我們的金屬在生產率方面。因此，銷售額影響為 5600 萬美元，利潤下降了 2600 萬美元。所以這不包括 2000 萬美元的庫存項目。因此，該庫存項目將位於其之上。然後現在，一些金屬指數開始下降到第四季度，就像我提到的，廢鋼。但其中一些並沒有，比如鋁在過去幾個月中繼續徘徊在某種程度上的穩定水平。鎂也處於非常相似的位置。這些是我們的關鍵輸入。所以我們沒有透露第四季度的具體金額，但這就是我們一直在關注的趨勢。對我們來說，它們整體上呈下降趨勢。

Okay. Understood. And then just on the inventory absorption timing of this $20 million. Just want to make sure I fully understand it. So regardless of commodities pricing for next year, the impact -- this impact will get unwound in '23 or will it still be dependent on certain market dynamics?

好的。明白了。然後就是這 2000 萬美元的庫存吸收時間。只是想確保我完全理解它。因此，無論明年的商品定價如何，影響——這種影響將在 23 年消除，還是仍將取決於某些市場動態？

No. I mean, it's effectively unwound itself. So now, once we step into a lower run rate with metal, we'll start to realize that benefit of the lower metal costs running rough our P&L. You probably have another quarter here, meaning the fourth quarter as we step down even further. But this should be a good thing for AAM going forward. Assuming metal stays -- as you know, they change every 30 days, and they can move quick in either direction like we experienced in the third quarter.

不，我的意思是，它實際上是自行展開的。所以現在，一旦我們進入較低的金屬運行率，我們將開始意識到較低的金屬成本對我們的損益表的好處。你可能在這裡有另一個季度，這意味著第四季度，因為我們進一步下台。但這對於 AAM 的發展來說應該是一件好事。假設金屬保持不變——如你所知，它們每 30 天變化一次，並且它們可以像我們在第三季度所經歷的那樣向任一方向快速移動。

Right. Or every 2 hours, right? Just on the Tekfor acquisition, the $9 million positive contribution, is that trending ahead of expectations? It just seems like a pretty decent contribution right from the start regarding that acquisition.

正確的。或者每 2 小時一次，對嗎？就收購 Tekfor 而言，900 萬美元的積極貢獻是否超出預期？從收購的一開始，這似乎是一個相當不錯的貢獻。

Yes. So that's effectively a 10% EBITDA margin on the Tekfor business. That was sort of a -- we acquired them on June 1. That was pretty close to our expectation in terms of the near term. We thought it would be high single digits, and we're pretty much on track for that. Our synergy potential and expectations would be for that to step up, as we mentioned, more into 2023. But it's certainly in line -- pretty much in line with what we thought, below obviously our average, but we expect it to get up. This is a meaningful deal from a synergy perspective for us.

是的。因此，這實際上是 Tekfor 業務 10% 的 EBITDA 利潤率。那有點——我們在 6 月 1 日收購了它們。就近期而言，這非常接近我們的預期。我們認為這將是高個位數，而且我們正朝著這個目標邁進。正如我們提到的那樣，我們的協同潛力和預期將在 2023 年進一步提高。但它肯定符合 - 與我們的想法非常一致，顯然低於我們的平均水平，但我們預計它會上升。從協同效應的角度來看，這對我們來說是一筆有意義的交易。

(Operator Instructions) The next question is from Joe Spak from RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joe Spak。

I think, Chris, you may have sort of just answered this, but just to be clear on the inventory adjustment. Is there still an impact in the fourth quarter? Or -- and then going forward from there, you should start to benefit if prices stay lower or is that really still done for now, I guess, on a year-over-year basis?

我想，克里斯，你可能剛剛回答了這個問題，但只是為了清楚庫存調整。四季度還有影響嗎？或者——然後從那裡開始，如果價格保持較低，你應該開始受益，或者我想，現在真的還在做，與去年同期相比嗎？

Yes. So this dynamic happens, it's really an inventory valuation perspective from an accounting -- months through our P&L. So if it drops again dramatically, which, as you know, is good for us, you will continue to expense out higher-priced inventory sort of think of it in a period where your revenue reimbursement from your customer is lower. It will pass within a quarter, and then it's good when you're into the lower metal market run rates from there. So if the extent they drop even further in the fourth quarter, maybe you have a little bit of an impact to that, but again, you'll start to benefit from the lower metal cost holistically.

是的。所以這種動態發生了，這實際上是從會計角度來看的庫存估值——通過我們的損益表幾個月。因此，如果它再次急劇下降，如您所知，這對我們有利，您將繼續花費高價庫存，在客戶的收入報銷較低的時期考慮一下。它會在一個季度內過去，然後當你從那裡進入較低的金屬市場運行率時它會很好。因此，如果它們在第四季度進一步下降，也許你會對此產生一點影響，但同樣，你將開始從整體上降低金屬成本中受益。

Okay. So I guess the view is that impact in the third quarter mostly sort of gets you to current sort of spot price levels for the metals?

好的。所以我猜想，第三季度的影響主要是讓你達到目前的金屬現貨價格水平？

Yes. It's pretty close. That was driven by the predominantly scrap steel, which was a rapid decline. And you saw this, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks. We actually had the opposite phenomenon happen in the second quarter of '21, which was a very positive benefit for us. So think of it just sort of unwound itself over the course of the last 12-plus months as metals have come back down.

是的。非常接近。這是由主要是廢鋼推動的，廢鋼正在迅速下降。正如我在準備好的發言中提到的，你看到了這一點。實際上，我們在 21 年第二季度發生了相反的現象，這對我們來說是一個非常積極的好處。因此，可以認為它只是在過去 12 個多月的過程中隨著金屬價格回落而自行解除。

And then, David, look, I know as sort of Rod mentioned, I sort of heard your comments on deals and I know you don't like to comment on speculation. I guess, again, stepping aside from any specific deal, this isn't the first time we've seen your company in speculatory news about a transaction. So I was wondering, and this is management that in the past has also expressed, I guess, some frustration on valuation. So maybe you could just add a little bit in terms of Board and management psyche when you sort of see the market reaction to these news and how you think about that going forward?

然後，大衛，聽著，我知道就像 Rod 提到的那樣，我聽到了你對交易的評論，我知道你不喜歡對投機發表評論。我想，再次撇開任何具體交易不談，這不是我們第一次在有關交易的投機性新聞中看到貴公司。所以我想知道，這是管理層過去也表達過的，我猜，對估值有些沮喪。因此，當您看到市場對這些消息的反應以及您對未來的看法時，也許您可以在董事會和管理層心理方面增加一點？

Well, obviously, the news articles are a distraction to the management team in our business with respect to what came out and what we have to do to go forward and put out a public statement with respect to the company's not for sale, hasn't been for sale. So it's disappointing that we have to do that and redirect our management time. But at the same time, we want to be very clear to the investment community and our stakeholders that we are not for sale.

好吧，很明顯，新聞文章分散了我們業務的管理團隊的注意力，因為他們不知道發生了什麼，我們必須做什麼才能繼續前進，並就公司的非賣品發表公開聲明，還沒有已出售。所以令人失望的是，我們必須這樣做並重新調整我們的管理時間。但與此同時，我們希望向投資界和我們的利益相關者非常清楚，我們不會出售。

We have a job to do. We have a business to run. Part of our business is not only to grow organically, but to look at what can we do to grow inorganically. We're going to continue to assess the market and look at what we can do to strengthen our company as far as our balance sheet show growth in the marketplace, at the same time, continue to deliver the profitable results that we do as a company.

我們有工作要做。我們有一項業務要經營。我們業務的一部分不僅僅是有機增長，而是研究我們可以做些什麼來實現無機增長。我們將繼續評估市場，看看我們可以做些什麼來加強我們的公司，只要我們的資產負債表顯示市場增長，同時，繼續提供我們作為一家公司所做的盈利結果.

So we'll continue to look at the market conditions and the opportunities that present themselves. That's just doing a good job from a management and leadership standpoint with the proper support from governance. But at the same time, all I can do is just be clear again, that we're not for sale.

因此，我們將繼續關注市場狀況和出現的機會。從管理和領導的角度來看，這只是在治理的適當支持下做得很好。但與此同時，我所能做的就是再次明確，我們是非賣品。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to David Lim for any concluding remarks.

女士們，先生們，我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回給 David Lim 作任何總結性發言。

Thank you, Chad, and we thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM. We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future. Thank you.

謝謝查德，我們感謝所有參與此次電話會議的人，感謝您對 AAM 的興趣。我們當然期待在未來與您交談。謝謝你。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。