American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. My name is Jamie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions).

大家，早安。我叫傑米，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。此時，我歡迎大家參加 American Axle & Manufacturing 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）。

As a reminder, today's event is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr. David Lim, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

提醒一下，今天的活動正在錄製中。現在，我想請投資者關係主管 David Lim 先生髮言。請繼續，林先生。

Thank you, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's first quarter earnings call. Earlier this morning, we released our first quarter of 2023 earnings announcement. You can access this announcement on the Investor Relations page of our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services.

謝謝你，早上好。我謹歡迎每一位參加 AAM 第一季度財報電話會議的人。今天早些時候，我們發布了 2023 年第一季度收益公告。您可以在我們網站 www.aam.com 的投資者關係頁面以及通過美通社服務獲取本公告。

You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the Investor page of our website as well. To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial (1) 877 344-7529 replay access code 8763803. This replay will be available through May 12.

您還可以在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到本次電話會議的補充幻燈片。要收聽此通話的重播，您可以撥打 (1) 877 344-7529 重播訪問代碼 8763803。此重播將持續到 5 月 12 日。

Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, which cannot be predicted or quantified and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed. For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures as well as a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information is available on our website.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包含受風險和不確定性影響的評論和前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性無法預測或量化，可能導致未來的活動和經營結果出現重大差異從那些討論過的。如需了解更多信息，請參閱我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。此外，在這次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非 GAAP 衡量標準的信息以及這些非 GAAP 衡量標準與 GAAP 財務信息的調節表可在我們的網站上獲取。

With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dauch.

接下來，讓我將此事轉交給 AAM 董事長兼首席執行官 David Dauch。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝大衛，大家早上好。

Thanks for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the first quarter of 2023. Joining me on the call today is Chris May, AAM's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

感謝您今天加入我們討論 AAM 2023 年第一季度的財務業績。今天與我一起參加電話會議的是 AAM 執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Chris May。

To begin my comments, I'll review the highlights of our first quarter financial performance. Next, I will touch on some exciting news in the quarter, including significant developments with our electrification business. The momentum of our technology is clear and is accelerating. The combination of our technology leadership, including power density, mass optimization, efficiency and NVH expertise is driving strong interest in our product portfolio. After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we'll open up the call to any questions that you all may have.

首先，我將回顧一下我們第一季度財務業績的亮點。接下來，我將談談本季度的一些令人興奮的消息，包括我們電氣化業務的重大發展。我們的技術發展勢頭十分明顯，並且正在加速發展。我們的技術領先地位（包括功率密度、質量優化、效率和 NVH 專業知識）相結合，激發了人們對我們產品組合的濃厚興趣。在克里斯詳細介紹我們的財務業績後，我們將通過電話解答大家可能提出的任何問題。

So let's begin. AAM's first quarter of 2023 sales were $1.49 billion. AAM continued to be impacted by downtime at our largest customers and production volatility. We are closely monitoring the overall macro environment, including rising interest rates and consumer sentiment that drives production and demand.

那麼讓我們開始吧。 AAM 2023 年第一季度的銷售額為 14.9 億美元。 AAM 繼續受到我們最大客戶的停機和生產波動的影響。我們正在密切關注整體宏觀環境，包括利率上升和推動生產和需求的消費者信心。

We remain focused on factors that we can control. From a profitability perspective, AAM's adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $175 million or 11.7% of sales. Disruption in the supply chain and changes to the production schedules adversely impacted AAM in the quarter. This continues to be exacerbated by a tight labor market. We anticipate this backdrop to continue throughout 2023, but we remain hopeful that the operating environment should incrementally improve in successive quarters. We experienced launch costs in the first quarter as the company is in the launch mode on some of our most significant launches of the year.

我們仍然專注於我們可以控制的因素。從盈利能力的角度來看，AAM 第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.75 億美元，佔銷售額的 11.7%。供應鏈中斷和生產計劃的變化對本季度的 AAM 產生了不利影響。勞動力市場緊張繼續加劇這種情況。我們預計這種情況將持續到 2023 年，但我們仍然希望運營環境能夠在連續幾個季度逐步改善。我們在第一季度經歷了啟動成本，因為該公司正處於今年一些最重要的啟動模式。

We anticipate these costs to stabilize in the following quarters, and Chris will provide more details about our EBITDA performance in the quarter. AAM's adjusted earnings per share in the first quarter of 2023 was a loss of $0.01. AAM experienced a cash outflow in the quarter and AAM adjusted free cash flow used in the first quarter was $17 million.

我們預計這些成本將在接下來的幾個季度穩定下來，克里斯將提供有關本季度 EBITDA 業績的更多詳細信息。 AAM 2023 年第一季度調整後每股收益為虧損 0.01 美元。 AAM 在本季度出現現金流出，第一季度使用的 AAM 調整後自由現金流為 1,700 萬美元。

Let me talk about some exciting business updates and key highlights, which you can see on Slide 4 of our investment package. Earlier this year at our Technology Day, we showed the investment community the strengths and the advantages of our electric propulsion product portfolio. Today, that technology foundation is continuing to manifest into tangible results. We are very pleased to announce that AAM will supply Stellantis with e-Beam axles for a future electric vehicle program. The program is set to launch in the latter part of this decade. We are limited on any other further details that we can share on this significant program but we are clearly demonstrating our capabilities and value proposition and electric propulsion technology and systems integration to the OEM community. This is a great example of how AAM is leveraging the axle heritage of the company with cutting edge electric propulsion technology leadership of today to drive our future growth.

讓我談談一些令人興奮的業務更新和關鍵亮點，您可以在我們的投資計劃的幻燈片 4 中看到這些內容。今年早些時候，在我們的技術日上，我們向投資界展示了我們電力推進產品組合的優勢和優勢。如今，該技術基礎正在繼續體現為切實的成果。我們非常高興地宣布，AAM 將為未來的電動汽車項目提供 Stellantis 電子束車軸。該計劃將於本十年後半葉啟動。我們無法透露有關這一重要計劃的任何其他進一步細節，但我們正在向 OEM 社區清楚地展示我們的能力和價值主張以及電力推進技術和系統集成。這是 AAM 如何利用公司的車軸傳統和當今領先的尖端電力推進技術來推動我們未來發展的一個很好的例子。

In the past several quarters, we have announced multiple e-beam awards with EKA, Jupiter and now Stellantis. And we expect the momentum to continue as we are in significant conversations with a number of other OEMs. Remember, our e-Beams and EDUs are designed to support multiple vehicle segments and architectures. Additionally, AAM made a commitment and investment in the global strategic mobility fund, which is managed by EnerTech Venture Capital. The investment provides AAM with access to new start-up and fully vetted high-tech companies advancing automotive technologies.

在過去的幾個季度中，我們與 EKA、Jupiter 以及現在的 Stellantis 宣布了多個電子束獎項。我們預計這種勢頭將持續下去，因為我們正在與許多其他原始設備製造商進行重要對話。請記住，我們的電子束和 EDU 旨在支持多個車輛細分市場和架構。此外，AAM 還對全球戰略流動基金做出了承諾和投資，該基金由 EnerTech Venture Capital 管理。這項投資使 AAM 能夠接觸新的初創企業和經過全面審查的高科技公司，以推進汽車技術的發展。

From a business recognition standpoint, we're excited to share that AAM was once again recognized by General Motors with the Overdrive Award for its efforts in sustainability. This is our third consecutive year of receiving the Overdrive Award, which recognizes suppliers for performance in such areas as purchasing, manufacturing services, customer care, after sales and logistics. AAM also made the list of America's best large employers by Forbes, our fourth time in doing so, and Newsweek recognized AAM as one of America's most responsible companies here in 2023.

從商業認可的角度來看，我們很高興與大家分享，AAM 因其在可持續發展方面的努力而再次獲得通用汽車頒發的 Overdrive 獎。這是我們連續第三年獲得 Overdrive 獎，該獎項旨在表彰供應商在採購、製造服務、客戶服務、售後和物流等領域的表現。 AAM 還第四次入選《福布斯》美國最佳大型雇主名單，《新聞周刊》將 AAM 評為 2023 年美國最負責任的公司之一。

From an ESG perspective, we are also very pleased to announce that we recently published in April our 2022 sustainability report. Some of the key highlights of this report include achieving our SBTi validation of greenhouse gas emission goals, an A- rating on the CDP Climate Change survey, hiring our first executive for diversity, equity and inclusion, improving our all safety performance metrics, and establishing a supplier sustainability council while increasing our spend with diverse suppliers.

從 ESG 角度來看，我們也非常高興地宣布，我們最近於 4 月發布了 2022 年可持續發展報告。本報告的一些主要亮點包括實現我們對溫室氣體排放目標的 SBTi 驗證、在 CDP 氣候變化調查中獲得 A- 評級、聘請我們的第一位高管以實現多樣性、公平性和包容性、改進我們的所有安全績效指標，以及建立供應商可持續發展委員會，同時增加我們與多元化供應商的支出。

Clearly, AAM is committed to profitably growing our business in a way that is sustainable, socially responsible and equitable. To close out my comments, Slide 6 shows our guidance, which is unchanged. AAM is targeting sales from $5.95 billion to $6.25 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $725 million to $800 million, adjusted free cash flow of approximately $225 million to $300 million, which assumes a capital spending in the range of 3.5% to 4%. So again, unchanged from earlier guidance.

顯然，AAM 致力於以可持續、對社會負責和公平的方式實現業務的盈利增長。為了結束我的評論，幻燈片 6 顯示了我們的指導意見，該指導意見沒有變化。 AAM 的目標銷售額為 59.5 億美元至 62.5 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 約為 7.25 億至 8 億美元，調整後自由現金流約為 2.25 億至 3 億美元，假設資本支出在 3.5% 至 4% 範圍內。再次強調，與之前的指導意見沒有變化。

And the continuation of the theme that started in the past several years, the operating environment remains dynamic. We are hopeful to see some stabilization in the second half of the year, and it is difficult to predict when normal return, but until it does, we will continue to remain focused on cost control, daily performance and execution, continuous improvement, quality performance and bringing the future faster.

延續過去幾年開始的主題，運營環境仍然充滿活力。我們希望下半年能看到一些穩定，很難預測何時能正常回歸，但在此之前，我們將繼續專注於成本控制、日常績效和執行、持續改進、質量績效並讓未來更快。

And as we've communicated many times before, our aim in the future, and we will continue to drive our efforts towards securing our primary legacy business, generating strong free cash flow, strengthening our balance sheet, advancing our electrification portfolio and positioning AAM for future profitable growth.

正如我們之前多次傳達的那樣，我們未來的目標是，我們將繼續努力確保我們的主要遺留業務、產生強勁的自由現金流、加強我們的資產負債表、推進我們的電氣化產品組合併將 AAM 定位為未來盈利增長。

I'm very excited about what lies ahead for AAM. And that concludes my remarks. Let me now turn the call over to our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May. Chris?

我對 AAM 的未來感到非常興奮。我的發言到此結束。現在讓我將電話轉給我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官克里斯·梅。克里斯？

Okay. Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone.

好的。謝謝大衛，大家早上好。

I will cover the financial details of our first quarter review today. I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments. So let's go ahead and begin with sales.

我今天將介紹我們第一季度回顧的財務細節。我還將參考收益幻燈片，作為我準備好的評論的一部分。那麼讓我們從銷售開始吧。

In the first quarter of 2023, AAM sales were $1.49 billion compared to $1.44 billion in the first quarter of 2022.

2023 年第一季度，AAM 銷售額為 14.9 億美元，而 2022 年第一季度為 14.4 億美元。

Slide 8 shows a walk of first quarter 2022 sales to first quarter 2023 sales. In the quarter, pricing was approximately a $5 million impact. Positive volume mix and other was $10 million, and the primary contributor to the year-over-year sales increase was the Tekfor acquisition, which contributed $101 million to sales. And lastly, metal market pass-throughs and FX lowered net sales by approximately $48 million with metal and FX both lower.

幻燈片 8 顯示了 2022 年第一季度銷售額到 2023 年第一季度銷售額的變化情況。本季度，定價影響約為 500 萬美元。正銷量組合和其他銷售額為 1000 萬美元，銷售額同比增長的主要貢獻者是對 Tekfor 的收購，該收購為銷售額貢獻了 1.01 億美元。最後，金屬市場轉手和外匯使淨銷售額減少了約 4800 萬美元，其中金屬和外匯均下跌。

During the quarter, the key full-size truck programs that we support experienced a fair amount of downtime. Overall, while North American production was up year-over-year, our primary full-size truck platforms related products were generally flat year-over-year.

在本季度，我們支持的主要全尺寸卡車項目經歷了相當長的停機時間。總體而言，雖然北美產量同比增長，但我們的主要全尺寸卡車平台相關產品總體同比持平。

Now let's move on to profitability. Gross profit was $160.6 million in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to $186.8 million in the first quarter of 2022. Adjusted EBITDA was $175.4 million in the first quarter of 2023 versus $196.1 million last year. You can see the year-over-year walk down of adjusted EBITDA on Slide 9. In the quarter, volume, mix and other added $4 million of adjusted EBITDA. R&D increased by approximately $8 million to support product launches and our electrification technology development. Net inflation, performance and other was a headwind of $27 million. For some color on this variance, it is a mix of net inflation for labor and materials and efficiencies due to production volatility and launch costs we incurred as we are ramping up significant new programs in the quarter. Going forward, we would expect labor inflation to remain, efficiencies to improve its stability and launch costs to continue into the second quarter and reduce thereafter.

現在讓我們轉向盈利能力。 2023 年第一季度的毛利潤為 1.606 億美元，而 2022 年第一季度為 1.868 億美元。2023 年第一季度調整後 EBITDA 為 1.754 億美元，去年為 1.961 億美元。您可以在幻燈片 9 上看到調整後 EBITDA 的同比下降情況。本季度，銷量、組合和其他方面增加了 400 萬美元的調整後 EBITDA。研發增加了約 800 萬美元，以支持產品發布和電氣化技術開發。淨通脹、業績及其他方面的逆風為 2700 萬美元。對於這種差異的一些色彩來說，它是勞動力和材料的淨通貨膨脹以及由於生產波動和我們在本季度推出重要新項目時產生的啟動成本而產生的效率的混合體。展望未來，我們預計勞動力通脹將持續存在，效率將提高其穩定性，而啟動成本將持續到第二季​​度並在此後下降。

Let me now cover SG&A. SG&A expense, including R&D, in the first quarter of 2023 was $98.3 million or 6.6% of sales. This compares to $86.1 million or 6% of sales in the first quarter of 2022. AAM's R&D spending in the first quarter of 2023 was approximately $43 million. As we mentioned before, R&D will trend around the $40 million range per quarter as we continue to invest in our electric drive technology, capitalizing on the growing number of electrification opportunities that are before us, including the Stellantis announcement today. The good news here is we continue to see multiple new electric propulsion opportunities driving this investment.

現在讓我介紹一下 SG&A。 2023 年第一季度的 SG&A 費用（包括研發）為 9830 萬美元，佔銷售額的 6.6%。相比之下，2022 年第一季度的銷售額為 8610 萬美元，佔銷售額的 6%。AAM 2023 年第一季度的研發支出約為 4300 萬美元。正如我們之前提到的，隨著我們繼續投資於我們的電力驅動技術，利用擺在我們面前的越來越多的電氣化機會，包括今天宣布的 Stellantis，研發費用將趨於每季度 4000 萬美元左右。好消息是我們繼續看到多個新的電力推進機會推動這項投資。

Let's move on to interest and taxes. Net interest expense was $44.6 million in the first quarter of 2023 compared to $41.7 million in the first quarter of 2022. Although our total debt is lower at quarter end on a year-over-year basis, the rising rate environment is driving the interest rate increase. In the first quarter of 2023, our income tax expense was de minimis as compared to an expense of $3 million in the first quarter of 2022. For 2023, we expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be somewhat elevated in the 40% to 50% range, primarily due to an increase in the current period valuation allowance. Taking all this into account, our GAAP net loss was $5.1 million in the quarter or $0.04 per share in the first quarter of 2023 compared to a net income of $1 million or $0.01 per share in the first quarter of 2022.

讓我們繼續討論利息和稅收。 2023 年第一季度的淨利息支出為 4460 萬美元，而 2022 年第一季度為 4170 萬美元。儘管我們季度末的總債務同比較低，但不斷上升的利率環境正在推動利率上升增加。與 2022 年第一季度的 300 萬美元費用相比，2023 年第一季度我們的所得稅費用微乎其微。對於 2023 年，我們預計調整後的有效稅率將在 40% 至 50% 之間有所提高範圍，主要是由於本期估價備抵增加。考慮到所有這些因素，我們本季度的 GAAP 淨虧損為 510 萬美元，即 2023 年第一季度的每股虧損 0.04 美元，而 2022 年第一季度的淨利潤為 100 萬美元，即每股虧損 0.01 美元。

Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release, was a loss of $0.01 per share in the first quarter of 2023 compared to $0.19 per share in the first quarter of 2022. Let's now move to cash flow and the balance sheet. Net cash provided by operating activities for the first quarter of 2023 was $32.1 million. Capital expenditures, net of proceeds from the sale of property, plant and equipment for the first quarter of 2023 were $46.2 million. Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the first quarter of 2023 were $4 million. The net cash inflow for insurance proceeds in the operating section of the statement of cash flows related to the Malvern fire was $7 million in the quarter. Reflecting the impact of these activities, AAM incurred an adjusted free cash flow use of $17.1 million in the first quarter of 2023. We note that historically, working capital is often an outflow in the first quarter and we experienced that trend this year.

調整後每股收益（不包括我們收益新聞稿中提到的項目的影響）為 2023 年第一季度每股虧損 0.01 美元，而 2022 年第一季度每股虧損 0.19 美元。現在讓我們轉向現金流和資產負債表。 2023 年第一季度經營活動提供的淨現金為 3210 萬美元。 2023 年第一季度的資本支出（扣除出售房產、廠房和設備的收益）為 4,620 萬美元。 2023 年第一季度重組和收購相關活動的現金支付為 400 萬美元。本季度與馬爾文火災相關的現金流量表運營部分的保險收益淨現金流入為 700 萬美元。反映這些活動的影響的是，AAM 在 2023 年第一季度的調整後自由現金流使用量為 1,710 萬美元。我們注意到，從歷史上看，營運資金通常在第一季度流出，今年我們也經歷了這種趨勢。

From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the quarter with net debt of $2.4 billion and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $726.6 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 3.3x at March 31. In the first quarter, we continued to reduce our outstanding debt by over $25 million, and we intend to continue to utilize the free cash flow generating power of AAM to strengthen the balance sheet by reducing our outstanding debt.

從債務槓桿角度來看，本季度末我們的淨債務為 24 億美元，LTM 調整後 EBITDA 為 7.266 億美元，計算出截至 3 月 31 日的淨槓桿率為 3.3 倍。第一季度，我們繼續將未償債務減少超過2500 萬美元，我們打算繼續利用 AAM 的自由現金流生成能力，通過減少未償債務來強化資產負債表。

As for the rest of the year, Slide 6 shows our full year guidance. Our 2023 financial targets are unchanged from when we initially provided them on February 17. For sales, we are targeting the range of $5.95 billion to $6.25 billion for 2023. This sales target is based upon a North America production of 14.5 million to 15.1 million units and select assumptions for our key programs. Underpinning our North America production and sales ranges, we anticipate the GM T1XX program on a year-over-year basis to be flat to up to approximately 5% or 10%. In terms of quarterly cadence considerations, we would expect continued launch costs into the second quarter and customer inflation recoveries more weighted in the second half of the year.

至於今年剩餘時間，幻燈片 6 顯示了我們的全年指導。我們的 2023 年財務目標與 2 月 17 日最初提供的目標相同。對於銷售，我們的 2023 年目標為 59.5 億至 62.5 億美元。該銷售目標基於北美產量 1,450 萬至 1,510 萬台。並為我們的關鍵計劃選擇假設。為了支撐我們的北美生產和銷售範圍，我們預計通用汽車 T1XX 計劃同比將持平至約 5% 或 10%。就季度節奏考慮而言，我們預計第二季度的持續推出成本和下半年客戶通脹復甦的比重將更大。

While uncertainty remains, we are cautiously optimistic that the operating environment will improve throughout the year. Our adjusted EBITDA target is $725 million to $800 million, and our adjusted free cash flow target is $225 million to $300 million. So big picture, this quarter has been a busy quarter with critical launch activity, experienced more large truck downtime than expected, has been impacted by volatility and efficiencies and has had a robust R&D spend. However, the even bigger picture, customer interest in our new electrification products is growing and our business is transforming with each new award we earn. So thank you for your time and participation on the call today. I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David, so we can start the Q&A. David?

儘管不確定性依然存在，但我們對全年經營環境將有所改善持謹慎樂觀態度。我們調整後的 EBITDA 目標是 7.25 億美元至 8 億美元，調整後的自由現金流目標是 2.25 億美元至 3 億美元。總體而言，本季度是一個繁忙的季度，有重要的發布活動，大型卡車的停機時間比預期要多，受到波動性和效率的影響，並且研發支出強勁。然而，從更大的角度來看，客戶對我們的新電氣化產品的興趣正在與日俱增，我們的業務也隨著我們獲得的每一個新獎項而發生轉變。感謝您抽出時間參加今天的電話會議。我要在這裡停下來，將電話轉回給大衛，以便我們可以開始問答。大衛？

We have reserved some time to take questions. I would ask that you please limit your questions to no more than 2. So at this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions that you may have. Jamie?

我們預留了一些時間來回答問題。我想請您將您的問題限制在不超過 2 個。因此，此時，請隨時繼續回答您可能有的任何問題。傑米？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from John Murphy from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

I just want to start on Slide 9. And obviously, the inflation, net performance and other bar there -- column is kind of a big swing factor. So just curious if you could give us a little bit more detail around sort of the exact numbers there on labor and material, logistics and launch costs. I think for kind of the big buckets you talked about and how we should think about those going forward? Because I think you kind of alluded to getting much better recoveries towards the second half of the year.

我只想從幻燈片 9 開始。顯然，通貨膨脹、淨績效和其他欄 - 欄是一個很大的搖擺因素。因此，我很好奇您能否向我們提供更多有關勞動力和材料、物流和發射成本的確切數字的詳細信息。我認為對於您談到的一些大目標以及我們應該如何考慮未來的發展？因為我認為你提到下半年會得到更好的恢復。

Yes, certainly, John, this is Chris. I'll take that question. So yes, if you look on Slide 9, you could see that bucket of minus $27 million on a year-over-year basis. I would break that down into the 3 categories that you referred to. Our launch costs, as you know, this is a big backlog year for us. We're launching the Colorado Canyon as one of the larger programs we're launching plus some of the AMG product continues to launch some variance here. That accounts for about 40% to 50% of this.

是的，當然，約翰，這是克里斯。我來回答這個問題。所以，是的，如果您查看幻燈片 9，您會發現同比下降了 2700 萬美元。我會將其分為您提到的三類。如您所知，我們的啟動成本對我們來說是一個大量積壓的一年。我們將推出科羅拉多峽谷，作為我們正在推出的較大計劃之一，加上一些 AMG 產品繼續在這裡推出一些差異。這約佔其中的40%至50%。

So think of this as just getting ready, startup, scrap, runoff, et cetera, as we get up to volume run rate here for the back half of the year. As our backlog from a revenue perspective is weighted more towards outside the first quarter and comes online through the course of the year. So that's about 40% to 50% economics here. So think material, freight, labor, et cetera, about 30% to 40% of that bucket and the performance would be the rest associated really with a lot of volatility inside the market.

因此，當我們達到今年下半年的批量運行率時，請將其視為剛剛準備、啟動、報廢、徑流等。從收入角度來看，我們的積壓訂單更多地集中在第一季度之外，並在全年中上線。所以這大約是 40% 到 50% 的經濟效益。因此，想想材料、貨運、勞動力等，大約佔該桶的 30% 到 40%，其餘的表現將與市場內部的大量波動真正相關。

Okay. That's very helpful. And then David, as we think about Slide 4 the Stellantis e-Beam axle win is great news, and congratulations on that. As you see wins like that, how much does that sort of open the door to other potential wins at a company like Stellantis. Is this sort of a very specific e-Beam axle application? Or is this something that could expand beyond what appears to be just this initial win even into EDUs, et cetera?

好的。這非常有幫助。然後大衛，當我們想到幻燈片 4 時，Stellantis 電子束軸獲勝是個好消息，對此表示祝賀。當你看到這樣的勝利時，對於像 Stellantis 這樣的公司來說，這在多大程度上為其他潛在勝利打開了大門。這是一種非常具體的電子束軸應用嗎？或者說，這是否可以擴展到看似最初的勝利，甚至擴展到 EDU 等領域？

Well, I think the most important thing, and you know this, John, is that we have an extensive portfolio in electrification across e-Beams as well as EDUs. We're very pleased to partner with Stellantis on this electric vehicle program utilizing e-Beam technology. We do think there's other opportunities not only with Stellantis, but other customers to use similar technology, but also the expanded portfolio that we have. This is a significant win for us. It launched in the latter part of the decade.

嗯，我認為最重要的事情是，約翰，你知道這一點，我們在電子束和 EDU 的電氣化領域擁有廣泛的產品組合。我們很高興與 Stellantis 合作開展這個利用電子束技術的電動汽車項目。我們確實認為，不僅 Stellantis 存在其他機會，其他客戶也有使用類似技術的機會，而且我們擁有的擴展產品組合也有機會。這對我們來說是一次重大勝利。它是在本世紀後半葉推出的。

So we're excited about what this program means -- it also just validates and verifies our electrification capabilities not only just Stellantis, but to the other OEMs in regards to the extensive R&D capability that we have in paired up with our operational excellence and our quality and the heritage of our company. So we're very, very excited about this award and glad we could announce it here today. And obviously, we're limited in regards to some of the details we can share, but very positive news for AAM.

因此，我們對這個計劃的意義感到興奮——它不僅驗證了我們的電氣化能力，不僅驗證了 Stellantis，還驗證了其他原始設備製造商的廣泛研發能力，以及我們的卓越運營和我們的能力。質量和我們公司的傳統。因此，我們對這個獎項感到非常非常興奮，很高興我們今天可以在這裡宣布它。顯然，我們可以分享的一些細節有限，但對於 AAM 來說這是非常積極的消息。

I'm sorry, if I can sneak one housekeeping. The 40% to 50% tax rate, Chris, you alluded to for the year, how much of that is cash and noncash? And what's normal?

抱歉，如果我能偷偷做一下家務的話。克里斯，你提到的今年 40% 到 50% 的稅率，其中有多少是現金和非現金？什麼是正常的？

Yes. So I mean that would -- I mean, technically, that's our book rate. Our cash taxes for the year around $65 million.

是的。所以我的意思是——我的意思是，從技術上講，這就是我們的圖書價格。我們今年的現金稅約為 6500 萬美元。

Okay. And what rate should we think is normal?

好的。我們應該認為什麼比率是正常的？

I mean from a cash perspective?

我的意思是從現金角度？

No. Book and cash -- I mean, a book basis going forward. I mean.

不。書籍和現金——我的意思是，未來的書籍基礎。我是說。

Like outside of '23I think it's a low 20% range under [current level].

就像 23 年之外的情況一樣，我認為 [當前水平] 的範圍較低，為 20%。

Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

I thought to ask around the e-Beam axle award with Stellantis. I know the press release refers to your 3-in-1 eDrive technology, featuring an integrated motor, inverter and gearbox, I think that means, but just wanted to confirm if you are integrating your components into the complete system you're providing your own or your JV partners components, I mean, rather than integrating the components of others? And if that is the case, maybe you can speak to how you're able to manage that.

我想向 Stellantis 詢問有關電子束軸獎的問題。我知道新聞稿提到了你們的三合一 eDrive 技術，具有集成電機、逆變器和變速箱，我認為這意味著，但只是想確認一下你們是否將組件集成到您提供的完整系統中我的意思是，自己或您的合資夥伴的組件，而不是集成其他人的組件？如果是這樣的話，也許你可以談談你如何能夠做到這一點。

How are you able to -- or even get into the system integration, how are you able to provide the system or the components at a lower cost or maybe it's a more efficient approach, how you were able to win that award. And then do you think you're in a good position to provide these complete integrated systems where you are providing the components to when it is attached to the axle because you understand the axle, you're probably providing the axle, et cetera, maybe you're in a better position even to provide integrated systems when they go to axle than maybe some other suppliers are when putting the unit somewhere else like attached to the engine or transmission because you're an axle expert. How should we think about that?

您如何能夠——甚至進入系統集成，您如何能夠以更低的成本提供系統或組件，或者也許這是一種更有效的方法，您如何能夠贏得該獎項。然後，您認為您是否有能力提供這些完整的集成系統，在該系統中，您可以在將其連接到車軸時提供組件，因為您了解車軸，您可能會提供車軸，等等，也許與其他供應商將設備安裝在發動機或變速箱等其他地方時相比，您甚至可以更好地提供集成系統，因為您是車軸專家。我們應該如何思考這個問題？

There is a lot there, Ryan, but I'm going to try to digest it and respond to that here. But yes, we are doing the full design, the integration, the testing, the validation and the assembly of the entire e-Beam axle, just like we've traditionally done for ICE business in the past. You participated in our Technology Day, you saw our 3-in-1 systems that we shared with you all at CES. We're clearly leveraging our heritage and our strength like we said, but we're also partnering with and leveraging our supply base for their components and subsystems. And in this case, we are using a strategic partner to support us with respect to motors and inverters. But at the same time, as we've mentioned to you all, we'll continue to develop some of our efforts in R&D activity in motors and inverters ourselves.

瑞安，其中有很多內容，但我將嘗試消化它並在這裡做出回應。但是，是的，我們正在對整個 e-Beam 軸進行完整的設計、集成、測試、驗證和組裝，就像我們過去為 ICE 業務所做的傳統做法一樣。您參加了我們的技術日，您看到了我們在 CES 上與大家分享的三合一系統。正如我們所說，我們顯然正在利用我們的傳統和優勢，但我們也與他們的組件和子系統的供應基地合作並利用我們的供應基地。在這種情況下，我們正在聘請戰略合作夥伴在電機和逆變器方面為我們提供支持。但與此同時，正如我們向大家提到的，我們將繼續在電機和逆變器方面的研發活動中做出一些努力。

When it comes to the software side of things and the integration side, we're doing a lot of work on the software ourselves. But at the same time, we need to work with the OEMs in regards to their software integration for the entire vehicle. So we'll work jointly together in regards to what we need to do to coordinate the software side of things. But we couldn't be happier to offer and ultimately be able to supply in the future here, an integrated system on e-Beam axles for Stellantis.

當涉及到軟件方面和集成方面時，我們自己在軟件方面做了很多工作。但與此同時，我們需要與整車廠合作進行整車的軟件集成。因此，我們將共同努力協調軟件方面的工作。但我們非常樂意為 Stellantis 提供並最終能夠在未來為 Stellantis 提供電子束車軸集成系統。

And as I said just in John's earlier comment or question, this is going to open up a lot of other doors to other OEMs as well. So I'm very excited about this opportunity with Stellantis, the ability to offer integrated e-Beam systems in this particular one, but also prepared to supply integrated EDUs and e-Beams in the future with other customers as well.

正如我在約翰之前的評論或問題中所說，這也將為其他原始設備製造商打開許多其他大門。因此，我對與 Stellantis 合作的機會感到非常興奮，能夠在這一特定係統中提供集成電子束系統，而且也準備在未來與其他客戶一起提供集成 EDU 和電子束。

Our next question comes from Dan Levy from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的丹·利維。

First, I wanted to ask just on the 1Q bridge and for the guidance for the full year. If you could maybe just talk to a couple of discrete items: a, your transactional exposure on the Mexican peso; and then b, we've obviously seen an increase in steel. I know you're more exposed to SBQ. But what's implied for the metal market, which I think in the last on the 4Q print you said would be a $15 million to $25 million EBITDA headwind.

首先，我想詢問 1Q 橋以及全年的指導。如果您可以只討論幾個離散的項目：a，您對墨西哥比索的交易敞口；然後b，我們明顯看到鋼材的增加。我知道你更容易接觸 SBQ。但這對金屬市場意味著什麼，我認為您在最後一份第四季度報告中說，這將是 1500 萬至 2500 萬美元的 EBITDA 逆風。

Yes, Dan, this is Chris. As it relates to the peso and the metal market, I guess, thinking about our prospective guidance. So as you know, the Mexico peso is our largest foreign currency exposure from a cost perspective, as you know, we have large operations inside of Mexico. We are subject to some level of volatility associated with the peso, but we do have a significant, I would call, 3-year rolling hedge program on the peso. So we are currently benefiting from some of those hedges that were placed last year, 2 years ago, 3 years ago. And obviously, I think for the most part of this year, we'll continue to reap some of that benefit. We will have some exposure transactionally as the peso has strengthened from about, let's call it, MXN 18 to the $1. So we'll have a little bit of that. But again, our hedges will protect from a lot of that exposure here this year.

是的，丹，這是克里斯。我想，因為它與比索和金屬市場有關，所以考慮了我們的前瞻性指導。如您所知，從成本角度來看，墨西哥比索是我們最大的外幣敞口，如您所知，我們在墨西哥境內有大量業務。我們受到與比索相關的一定程度的波動的影響，但我們確實有一個重要的，我稱之為，比索的三年期滾動對沖計劃。因此，我們目前正從去年、兩年前、三年前實施的一些對沖中受益。顯然，我認為在今年的大部分時間裡，我們將繼續獲得一些好處。隨著比索從 18 墨西哥比索升到 1 美元，我們將在交易上面臨一些風險。所以我們會有一點。但同樣，今年我們的對沖將防範大量此類風險。

As it relates to metal market, we generally provide through our guidance, metal market forward-looking sort of at current run rate coming off the quarter. So as you know, they declined sort of at the tail end of 2022, declined a little bit inside of the first quarter and has started to clip up at the end of the first quarter. We've seen some clip up in this activity and cost in April and May, early parts of May. But again, we generally do a flat run rate from the end of the quarter embedded in our guidance. So we are protected. As you know, we pass on 80% to 90% of that exposure to our customers up and down, and it changes every 30 days.

由於它與金屬市場相關，我們通常通過我們的指導提供金屬市場的前瞻性，按本季度當前的運行速度進行。如您所知，它們在 2022 年末有所下降，在第一季度內略有下降，並在第一季度末開始加速。我們在四月和五月以及五月初看到了這項活動和成本的一些縮減。但同樣，我們通常會在我們的指導中從季度末開始執行固定運行率。所以我們受到保護。如您所知，我們將 80% 到 90% 的風險向上或向下傳遞給我們的客戶，並且每 30 天就會改變一次。

Okay. So just to be clear on the peso in the quarter within the $12 million EBITDA increase on metal market and FX, it sounds like there was probably very little transactional headwind on the peso...

好的。因此，為了明確本季度比索在金屬市場和外匯上 1200 萬美元的 EBITDA 增長，聽起來比索的交易阻力可能很小......

Yes, correct. Not very much. Correct.

是，對的。不是很多。正確的。

Okay. Great. And then just continuing the line of questions on your Stellantis win. I think in the past, you disclosed that half of your backlog was drive units versus the other half of your EV component of your backlog was components or subassemblies. So I guess I wonder, how much does this change the trajectory of what you're playing for? Does this change the backlog with more CPV, more focused on drive units.

好的。偉大的。然後繼續關於你的 Stellantis 勝利的問題。我想在過去，您透露您的積壓訂單的一半是驅動單元，而積壓訂單中的電動汽車組件的另一半是組件或子組件。所以我想我想知道，這會在多大程度上改變你所追求的目標的軌跡？這是否會改變積壓的訂單，增加 CPV，更專注於驅動單元。

So in terms of our backlog, Dan, that commentary related to our recent 3-year backlog we released, so for '23, '24 and '25, this program launches in the latter part of the decade, but it does not change our view on how we are going to market for the products we supply, both from components and drive units. But obviously, large drive units, e-Beam axles have a very high content per vehicle. You've heard us articulate, it can be as high as $25 plus per vehicle. I would put when you have large applications such as this, it would be $2,500 plus, plus. So this will clearly weight towards on a dollar perspective versus a component side. But it does not change how we think about the products we sell into the market and the customers we continue to work with.

因此，就我們的積壓工作而言，丹，該評論與我們最近發布的 3 年積壓工作相關，因此對於“23”、“24”和“25”，該計劃在本世紀後半段啟動，但這並沒有改變我們的關於我們將如何營銷我們供應的產品（包括組件和驅動單元）的看法。但顯然，大型驅動單元、電子束車軸在每輛車上的含量非常高。您已經聽我們說過，每輛車的價格可能高達 25 美元以上。我認為，當您有像這樣的大型應用程序時，費用將超過 2,500 美元。因此，這顯然會從美元角度而非零部件角度產生影響。但這並沒有改變我們對向市場銷售的產品以及我們繼續合作的客戶的看法。

More so in terms of -- does this shift your focus a bit more to some of the larger pieces of content as opposed to the subassemblies, which are lower content? Or is it still sort of a balanced approach throughout all EV opportunities.

更重要的是——這是否會將您的注意力更多地轉移到一些較大的內容上，而不是內容較少的子組合上？或者它仍然是一種平衡所有電動汽車機會的方法。

So Dan, this is David. Let me be very clear. We're going to maintain a balanced approach. As we said, we're one of the very few suppliers that can approach the marketplace in different ways here where we can supply components. So think gears and shafts, subassemblies, think differentials, which we're already supplying both of those segments today to the industry. We're also supplying gearboxes, which is the third item and then the integrated systems, whether they be EDUs or e-Beam. So we're going to continue to service the market. There's a demand out there in the market for those areas, and we'll do it in balance.

丹，這是大衛。讓我說得很清楚。我們將保持平衡的態度。正如我們所說，我們是極少數能夠以不同方式進入市場並提供組件的供應商之一。因此，想想齒輪和軸、組件、差速器，我們今天已經向該行業提供這兩個部分。我們還提供齒輪箱，這是第三項，然後是集成系統，無論是 EDU 還是電子束。所以我們將繼續為市場服務。市場對這些領域有需求，我們會平衡地進行。

Great. If I could just squeeze 1 more in. If you could maybe just comment on the CapEx requirements for a program like this or more broadly, if you're pursuing more drive unit wins.

偉大的。如果我能再擠進 1 個就好了。如果您正在追求更多的驅動單元勝利，您是否可以對此類計劃的資本支出要求或更廣泛的要求發表評論。

Yes. Certainly, Dan. This is Chris. And we talked a little bit about this at our Technology Day earlier in the year in terms of some of our goals from a capital perspective. And that was to keep the capital intensity of new wins in the electrification space and a consistency and an intensity level very similar to our traditional products. Look, a big program -- a big driveline program, of course, requires capital to launch.

是的。當然，丹。這是克里斯。我們在今年早些時候的技術日上從資本角度討論了我們的一些目標。這是為了保持電氣化領域新勝利的資本強度以及與我們傳統產品非常相似的一致性和強度水平。看，一個大項目——一個大型傳動系統項目，當然需要資金來啟動。

But from a goal perspective, it's to keep the capital intensity very similar to our traditional products. But large programs require capital to invest in as do small ones, but the intensity level is what's key here. Optimizing the buy also when you get into some of this -- think of this as e-Beam axle award that we announced here that obviously leverages the core products we do today on the traditional side. So we have a great opportunity to leverage existing equipment through this process as well. But again, from an intensity perspective, we would expect it to be similar.

但從目標角度來看，是為了保持資本密集度與我們傳統產品非常相似。但大型項目和小型項目一樣都需要資本投資，但強度水平才是關鍵。當您參與其中時，也優化購買 - 將其視為我們在此宣布的電子束軸獎，這顯然利用了我們今天在傳統方面所做的核心產品。因此，我們也有很好的機會通過這個過程來利用現有設備。但同樣，從強度的角度來看，我們預計它會是相似的。

Our next question comes from Tom Narayan from RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行 (RBC) 的湯姆·納拉揚 (Tom Narayan)。

Along similar lines of questioning on the EBITDA bridge, the Q1 bridge and then the full year one you guys gave in Q4. So on volume, I mean, it looks as though the remainder of the year, obviously should see a pretty sizable kind of ramp relative to Q1. I think you guys called that out. And then pricing, it looks like the reverse. And I don't know if things maybe have changed since then, but it looks like it was -- you called out like a negative $40 million EBITDA headwind on price for the full year and then it was only negative $5 million for Q1. So curious if you could talk to those 2 volume and price. If anything has changed since Q4 and maybe the dynamics in the remainder of the year for those on EBITDA?

沿著 EBITDA 橋、第一季度橋以及第四季度全年一橋的類似問題。因此，就成交量而言，我的意思是，看起來今年剩餘時間顯然應該會看到相對於第一季度相當大的增長。我想你們已經說過了。然後定價，看起來正好相反。我不知道從那時起情況是否發生了變化，但看起來是這樣的——你說全年的 EBITDA 價格逆風為負 4000 萬美元，然後第一季度僅為負 500 萬美元。很好奇你能否談談這兩個數量和價格。自第四季度以來是否發生了任何變化，以及 EBITDA 的變化可能是今年剩餘時間的變化？

Yes. Certainly, and Tom, this is Chris. From a volume perspective, I think in my prepared comments, we articulated from a range perspective, especially on the full-size truck programs that we support, how we see the full year playing out from a pricing perspective. In addition, from a volume, our backlog is also -- it's a big backlog year for us. It is more weighted from a revenue perspective outside of the first quarter as we're launching some of these programs inside of the first quarter. So that's another key component to think about.

是的。當然，湯姆，這是克里斯。從銷量的角度來看，我認為在我準備好的評論中，我們從一系列角度闡述了我們如何從定價角度看待全年的情況，特別是在我們支持的全尺寸卡車項目上。此外，從數量上看，我們的積壓也是——這對我們來說是一個很大的積壓年份。從第一季度以外的收入角度來看，它的權重更大，因為我們在第一季度內推出了其中一些計劃。這是另一個需要考慮的關鍵因素。

From a pricing perspective, yes, we did have $40 million stepping into the year on a year-over-year bridge. That is still our expectation. And generally, we see those sort of come online in the first half of the year, not all of discrete with inside of the first quarter. So you'll have a little bit of that sort of step in through as the year progresses.

從定價的角度來看，是的，我們今年確實有 4000 萬美元的收入。這仍然是我們的期望。一般來說，我們看到這些在今年上半年上線，而不是在第一季度內全部離散。因此，隨著這一年的進展，你將會經歷一些類似的步驟。

Okay. And then my follow-up, Magna this morning issued a -- raised their production guidance, global auto production guidance slightly. We're starting to see kind of folks getting a little more constructive on that certainly may be coming from price cutting coming from automakers or views on pricing coming down on a retail perspective for the OEMs. Just curious how you're viewing auto production just in general, do you feel that same kind of view of things getting more constructive? Or is this still challenging and still kind of clouds at the end of the year, supply chain, all that -- all those types of issues.

好的。然後我的後續行動，麥格納今天早上發布了——小幅提高了他們的生產指導，全球汽車生產指導。我們開始看到一些人對此變得更有建設性，這當然可能來自汽車製造商的降價或原始設備製造商零售角度對定價的看法。只是好奇您總體上如何看待汽車生產，您是否覺得同樣的觀點變得更有建設性？或者這仍然具有挑戰性，並且在年底仍然是一種雲，供應鏈，所有這些類型的問題。

Yes. I'll take that. This is David Dauch. Well, first of all, in the first quarter, we clearly were impacted negatively in regards to unexpected downtime from our customers because of supply chain issues or semiconductor-related matters. So there's still some uncertainty and disruption and volatility in the marketplace. We see that continuing, although improving quarter-over-quarter as we go forward here. Obviously, the macro environment is challenged still. Interest rates are rising. So we'll see how that impacts consumer sentiment and demand in the future here. The wage inflation is still sticky. We're dealing with that. We're also dealing with economic issues that you're all aware of both raw material and components-wise.

是的。我會接受的。這是大衛·道赫。嗯，首先，在第一季度，我們顯然受到了客戶因供應鏈問題或半導體相關問題而意外停機的負面影響。因此，市場仍然存在一些不確定性、破壞性和波動性。我們看到這種情況仍在繼續，儘管隨著我們的前進，這一情況逐季度有所改善。顯然，宏觀環境仍面臨挑戰。利率正在上升。因此，我們將看看這將如何影響未來的消費者情緒和需求。工資通脹依然嚴峻。我們正在處理這個問題。我們還正在處理你們都知道的原材料和零部件方面的經濟問題。

Energy is softening a little bit in regards to Europe from the highest that it was at before but still above where we typically had operated at. Labor availability continues to be an issue and companies are going to have to run their businesses differently going forward than how we did pre-pandemic. That's just a fact of reality. I think freight issues, the increases have subsided, but still higher than where they were before. So things that need to be dealt with and addressed there. But we do see the second half of the year getting better.

歐洲的能源價格較之前的最高水平略有走軟，但仍高於我們通常的運營水平。勞動力供應仍然是一個問題，公司未來將不得不以與大流行前不同的方式經營業務。這只是現實的事實。我認為運費問題，漲幅已經減弱，但仍然高於之前的水平。所以需要在那里處理和解決的事情。但我們確實看到下半年情況會有所好轉。

We've guided our -- The Street at 14.5 million to 15.1 million units here in North America. We're hopeful that we're at the higher end of that, but we're also prepared to operate to the lower end if we need to based on the marketplace and the customer and demand. But to wrap it all up, I mean, there's still uncertainty and disruption and volatility in the marketplace. Again, we're going to stay focused on the things that we can control. But we're hopeful that the successive quarters start to show improvement.

我們已經將北美地區的 The Street 銷量控制在 1,450 萬至 1,510 萬台。我們希望我們處於高端，但如果我們需要基於市場、客戶和需求，我們也準備好向低端運營。但總而言之，我的意思是，市場仍然存在不確定性、混亂和波動。同樣，我們將繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情。但我們希望連續幾個季度開始出現改善。

Okay. And if I could just sneak one in. Does your guidance incorporate impacts any potential impacts from UAW with the GM?

好的。如果我能偷偷地插一句的話。您的指導意見是否包含了 UAW 與 GM 之間的任何潛在影響？

Absolutely not. We all need to be prepared in regards to potential work stoppage, but we can't build that into our forecasting right now. There is an incident or issue that takes place that obviously the whole marketplace is going to be impacted and we'll all do so accordingly.

絕對不。我們都需要為潛在的停工做好準備，但我們現在無法將其納入我們的預測中。發生一個事件或問題，顯然整個市場都會受到影響，我們都會相應地這樣做。

Our next question comes from Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的亞當喬納斯。

First, just a housekeeping. What percentage or portion of your CapEx spend this year and let's say, near term is devoted to EV, pure EV products?

首先，只是做家務。今年（比如說，近期）您的資本支出中有多少百分比或部分專門用於電動汽車、純電動汽車產品？

Just pure this year, Adam, it's not really -- think of it probably like 1/3 as you're starting to launch some of these components that are near term, some of the AMG product, but we're still launching a fair amount of our conventional products, especially this year that's driving some of our larger backlog, but that's a rough estimate at this point.

只是今年純粹，亞當，這並不是真的 - 想想它可能像 1/3，因為你開始推出一些近期的組件，一些 AMG 產品，但我們仍然推出公平的我們的傳統產品數量，特別是今年，導致我們的一些積壓量更大，但目前這是一個粗略的估計。

Yes. When do we hit like half or when does that flip?

是的。我們什麼時候打到一半或者什麼時候翻轉？

Well, it's going to transition over the next couple of years because we -- half of our backlog is associated with -- or nearly half is associated with EV product on the component side as well as some additional EV wins. And then this announcement we had here today is the latter part of the decade. So it's just going to continue to step up.

好吧，它將在未來幾年內發生轉變，因為我們一半的積壓與組件方面的電動汽車產品以及一些額外的電動汽車勝利相關。我們今天在這裡宣布的這一消息是這個十年的後半段。所以它只會繼續加強。

Yes. So this is David. I mean 40% of our backlog is electrification based today. That backlog covering the '23 to '25 period of time. what we're quoting on is about $1.5 billion of doing incremental opportunities that's 75% or more electrification based. So to Chris' comments, it's going to be the latter part of the decade that we'll start seeing that, but we'll grow into it each year as we went to a new EV business and that backlog grows on the EV space.

是的。這就是大衛。我的意思是，我們今天 40% 的積壓訂單都是基於電氣化的。該積壓工作涵蓋 23 至 25 年間。我們引用的是大約 15 億美元的增量機會，其中 75% 或更多是基於電氣化的。因此，根據克里斯的評論，我們將在本十年的後半段開始看到這一點，但隨著我們進入新的電動汽車業務，並且電動汽車領域的積壓訂單不斷增加，我們每年都會成長起來。

Just a follow-up. I mean, let me word this carefully. Some of your OEM customers set these volume targets a year or so ago, when the outlook for EVs, when there was like a year waiting list for a Tesla and Tesla is the most profitable car company in the world, and there's just a ton of hype, frankly. And I look at those volume targets now that they're still clinging to, and I'm thinking there's just no way, right, not even close. Now that's just my opinion. And I think some people on this call may have different opinions.

只是後續行動。我的意思是，讓我仔細說一下。您的一些 OEM 客戶大約一年前就設定了這些銷量目標，當時電動汽車的前景，特斯拉的等待名單大約有一年，而特斯拉是世界上最賺錢的汽車公司，而且只有大量的坦白說，炒作。我現在看看他們仍然堅持的那些銷量目標，我認為根本沒有辦法，對吧，甚至沒有接近。現在這只是我的意見。我認為參加這次電話會議的一些人可能會有不同的看法。

But how do you remain flexible when you're planning for these radically different type of architectures and products. Can you tell us what -- when it's delivered by people that just may not be setting price or cost in the industry and the gap between the checks that their CFOs wrote and then what can actually get cashed. How do you stay nimble on kind of what's baked into the contract or just help us out here because I'm thinking there's this reckoning and I think it's going to happen kind of soon, guys.

但是，當您規劃這些完全不同類型的架構和產品時，如何保持靈活性。你能告訴我們什麼嗎——當它由那些可能沒有設定行業價格或成本的人交付時，以及他們的首席財務官開具的支票與實際可以兌現的支票之間的差距。你們如何在合同中的內容上保持靈活，或者只是在這裡幫助我們，因為我認為有這樣的清算，我認為這很快就會發生，伙計們。

Well, this is David. First and foremost, from a manufacturing standpoint, we're going to try to design our operations to be as flexible as possible and to utilize as much equipment from ICE converting over EV, but as we've talked in the past before, there is some dedicated equipment towards EV-related technologies. So we just need to be smart as to how we invest. We need to be sensitive to your point in regards to volumes. All the volumes right now are forecast other than what some of the EV producers are generating today, especially Tesla. So we've got to be smart about that because there's still a lot of uncertainty in regards to the adoption rates for electrification.

嗯，這是大衛。首先也是最重要的，從製造的角度來看，我們將嘗試將我們的運營設計得盡可能靈活，並利用盡可能多的 ICE 設備而不是 EV 設備，但正如我們之前談到的，一些針對電動汽車相關技術的專用設備。因此，我們只需要明智地選擇投資方式即可。我們需要對您關於數量的觀點保持敏感。除了一些電動汽車生產商（尤其是特斯拉）今天的產量之外，目前所有的產量都是預測的。因此，我們必須對此保持明智，因為電氣化的採用率仍然存在很多不確定性。

And the other part of that is that we're balanced in regards to our commercial approach with our customers here so we can share and mitigate the risk and address any concerns that come up on fixed cost absorption issues and things along those lines. But you raised a very, very important point. There's still a lot of issues that are potentially going to impact the penetration of EVs. Just the grid itself, the charging systems, the battery technology, the raw material cost. Can the OEMs make money at this or not. But when it's all said and done, it's going to come down to consumer affordability. And right now, the average electrification price for a vehicle is $66,000, which is beyond where the mass market is. And that's why we've got to be smart about looking at what these adoption rates are going to be and the volume penetration.

另一方面，我們在與客戶的商業方法方面保持平衡，這樣我們就可以分擔和減輕風險，並解決固定成本吸收問題和類似問題中出現的任何問題。但你提出了一個非常非常重要的觀點。仍然有很多問題可能會影響電動汽車的普及。只是電網本身、充電系統、電池技術、原材料成本。 OEM廠商能不能靠這個賺錢？但歸根結底，這將取決於消費者的承受能力。目前，一輛汽車的平均電氣化價格為 66,000 美元，這超出了大眾市場的價格。這就是為什麼我們必須明智地了解這些採用率和銷量滲透率。

And our next question comes from James Picariello from BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello。

Just on the key customer downtime late in the first quarter, clearly, it seems as though you guys were able to navigate it pretty well and I know you touched on these factors, but what would you attribute to that performance to manage that disruption? And then relative to your expectation for the first quarter's margins to trend sequentially flat or worse what was the biggest clearest favorable surprise on that.

顯然，就第一季度末的關鍵客戶停機而言，你們似乎能夠很好地應對它，我知道你們觸及了這些因素，但您認為管理這種中斷的績效歸因於什麼？然後，相對於您對第一季度利潤率連續持平或更糟的預期，最大、最明顯的有利驚喜是什麼。

Yes. In terms of the quarter in that performance bucket that was asked earlier, 10% to 20% of that, I would call, year-over-year bridge is associated with performance impacts from that volatility in terms of dimensionalizing some of that inside the quarter. And look, what I want to tell you, James, is continuing to be nimble with production schedules, it's a challenge. You see it dragging through some of our performance in these year-over-year walks, but trying to be nimble, trying to have good communication with customers and flexing as quick as you can, speed matters in this game and managing inventories properly as well. So it's a lot to handle. And obviously, it's not optimizing our performance. So that's why we see some upside in the future when things stabilize.

是的。就之前提出的績效桶中的季度而言，我認為其中 10% 到 20% 的同比橋接與波動性對績效的影響有關，具體而言，將季度內的一些波動進行維度化。詹姆斯，我想告訴你的是，要繼續靈活地制定生產計劃，這是一個挑戰。你會發現它拖累了我們在這些年復一年的業績中的一些表現，但要努力保持敏捷，努力與客戶進行良好的溝通並儘可能快地進行調整，速度在這場遊戲中很重要，並且正確管理庫存也很重要。所以有很多事情需要處理。顯然，這並沒有優化我們的性能。這就是為什麼當情況穩定下來時我們會看到未來的一些好處。

Got it. And I know you called out some launch costs set up for the second quarter. Just in terms of the margin cadence for the year, should we assume steady profitability improvement through the year?

知道了。我知道您提到了第二季度的一些啟動成本。就今年的利潤率而言，我們是否應該假設全年盈利能力穩步改善？

Yes, our guidance would indicate that's correct. But again, we'll have some launch costs here inside of the second quarter and recoveries from customers on some of those discussions are a little back weighted towards the second half of the year versus the first half.

是的，我們的指導表明這是正確的。但同樣，我們將在第二季度內產生一些啟動成本，並且與上半年相比，下半年從客戶那裡獲得的一些討論的回收率會稍微偏低。

Got it. And my last one is, just congrats on the Stellantis award. Will this cover the nameplates entire production? Or could it be variant specific?

知道了。我的最後一點是，祝賀您獲得 Stellantis 獎。這會覆蓋銘牌的整個生產過程嗎？或者它可能是特定於變體的嗎？

Cover the nameplate production. At the same time, there could be derivatives. That's going to be dependent upon where Stellantis goes with the product. Clearly, we'll be able to adapt and adjust onto their market needs but we also have other products in our portfolio based on what they may be looking for.

蓋銘牌製作。同時，可能還有衍生品。這將取決於 Stellantis 與產品的搭配。顯然，我們將能夠適應和調整他們的市場需求，但我們的產品組合中還根據他們可能的需求提供其他產品。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll be concluding today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to David Lim for any closing remarks.

女士們、先生們，今天的問答環節就到此結束。我想請大衛·林 (David Lim) 發表結束語。

Thank you, Jamie, and we thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM. We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future. Thank you. Have a good weekend.

謝謝 Jamie，我們感謝所有參與本次電話會議的人，並感謝您對 AAM 的興趣。我們當然期待將來與您交談。謝謝。有一個美好的周末。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，我們今天的電話會議就到此結束。我們非常感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。