American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. My name is Jamie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I'd now like to turn the floor over to Mr. David Lim, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

大家，早安。我叫傑米，今天我將擔任你們的會議主持人。此時，我想歡迎大家參加 American Axle & Manufacturing 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，今天的通話正在錄音中。我現在想請投資者關係主管 David Lim 先生髮言。請繼續，林先生。

Thank you, Jamie, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's fourth quarter earnings call. Earlier this morning, we released our fourth quarter of '22 earnings announcement. You can access this announcement on the Investor Relations page of our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services.

謝謝你，傑米，早上好。歡迎所有參加 AAM 第四季度財報電話會議的人。今天早上早些時候，我們發布了 22 年第四季度的收益公告。您可以在我們網站 www.aam.com 的投資者關係頁面上以及通過美通社服務訪問此公告。

You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the investor page of our website as well. To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1-877-344-7529, replay access code 5108684. This replay will be available through February 24.

您還可以在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到本次電話會議的補充幻燈片。要收聽此電話的重播，您可以撥打 1-877-344-7529，重播接入碼 5108684。此重播將在 2 月 24 日之前提供。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, which cannot be predicted or quantified and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議中討論的事項可能包含受風險和不確定性影響的評論和前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性無法預測或量化，可能導致未來的活動和運營結果不同實質上來自所討論的內容。

For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures as well as a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information is available on our website.

如需更多信息，我們要求您參考我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件。此外，在此次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非 GAAP 財務指標。我們的網站上提供了有關這些非 GAAP 措施的信息以及這些非 GAAP 措施與 GAAP 財務信息的調節。

With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dauch.

有了這個，讓我把事情交給 AAM 的董事長兼首席執行官 David Dauch。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2022. Joining me on the call today are Mike Simonte, AAM's President; and Chris May, AAM's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，大衛，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們討論 AAM 2022 年第四季度和全年的財務業績。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 AAM 總裁 Mike Simonte；和 AAM 的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Chris May。

To begin my comments today, I'll review the highlights of our fourth quarter and full year 2022 financial performance. Next, I'll cover our achievements in 2022 on both electrification and on our legacy business. After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we'll open up the call for any questions that you all may have.

在今天開始發表評論之前，我將回顧一下我們第四季度和 2022 年全年財務業績的亮點。接下來，我將介紹我們 2022 年在電氣化和傳統業務方面取得的成就。在 Chris 介紹了我們的財務結果的詳細信息之後，我們將打開電話詢問大家可能有的任何問題。

So let's begin. AAM's fourth quarter operating results, similar to the third quarter, were negatively impacted by industry macro conditions. However, AAM concluded the year with strong cash flow performance for the fourth quarter and the full year of 2022.

讓我們開始吧。 AAM 的第四季度經營業績與第三季度類似，受到行業宏觀環境的負面影響。然而，AAM 以第四季度和 2022 年全年的強勁現金流表現結束了這一年。

We continue to stay focused on managing the factors that are under our control. AAM's fourth quarter 2022 sales were $1.4 billion, and for the full year, AAM sales were approximately $5.8 billion. From a profitability perspective, AAM's adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $158 million or 11.3% of sales.

我們繼續專注於管理我們可控的因素。 AAM 2022 年第四季度的銷售額為 14 億美元，全年銷售額約為 58 億美元。從盈利能力的角度來看，AAM 第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.58 億美元，佔銷售額的 11.3%。

For the full year, AAM's adjusted EBITDA was $747 million or 12.9% of sales. It was simply a challenging year. AAM was negatively impacted by supply chain disruptions including semiconductor availability, which likely impacted global production by over 4 million units in 2022.

全年，AAM 的調整後 EBITDA 為 7.47 億美元，佔銷售額的 12.9%。這簡直是充滿挑戰的一年。 AAM 受到包括半導體可用性在內的供應鏈中斷的負面影響，這可能在 2022 年影響全球產量超過 400 萬台。

Combined, these factors drove significant customer production volatility and additionally, we navigated higher input costs throughout the year, including rising utility, labor and material costs. Relative to the first half of the year, the second half of 2022 was a more difficult operating environment for us. That stated, even with these challenges, we found solutions to mitigate a number of these issues and still advance key long-term initiatives on many fronts.

綜合起來，這些因素導致客戶生產大幅波動，此外，我們全年應對更高的投入成本，包括不斷上升的公用事業、勞動力和材料成本。相對於上半年，2022年下半年對我們來說是一個更加艱難的經營環境。也就是說，即使面臨這些挑戰，我們也找到了緩解其中一些問題的解決方案，並且仍在許多方面推進了關鍵的長期計劃。

I'll cover some of these topics in a few moments. AAM's adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter of 2022 was a loss of $0.07 per share. For the full year, AAM's adjusted EPS was $0.60 per share. AAM's cash flow performance continued to shine.

稍後我將介紹其中的一些主題。 AAM 在 2022 年第四季度的調整後每股收益為每股虧損 0.07 美元。全年，AAM 的調整後每股收益為 0.60 美元。 AAM 的現金流表現繼續亮眼。

AAM's adjusted free cash flow in the fourth quarter was $99 million, and for the full year, AAM's adjusted free cash flow was $313 million. This cash flow was deployed in 2022 to support significant debt reduction, our acquisition of Tekfor and investing in electrification to position us for the future.

AAM 第四季度調整後的自由現金流為 9900 萬美元，全年調整後的自由現金流為 3.13 億美元。這筆現金流在 2022 年進行了部署，以支持大幅削減債務、收購 Tekfor 以及投資電氣化，為我們的未來做好準備。

Chris will provide additional information regarding the details of our financial results in a few moments. Let me talk about the business updates and key highlights, which you can see on Slide 4 and Slide 5.

克里斯將在稍後提供有關我們財務結果細節的更多信息。讓我談談業務更新和重點亮點，您可以在幻燈片 4 和幻燈片 5 上看到。

We are very pleased to announce that AAM will supply Jupiter Electric mobility with eBeam axles for the company's 2.2-ton battery electric light commercial vehicle. Jupiter Electric Mobility is part of India's Jupiter Wagons Limited which manufactures railcars, commercial and heavy vehicles and marine containers.

我們非常高興地宣布，AAM 將為公司的 2.2 噸電池電動輕型商用車提供配備 eBeam 車軸的 Jupiter Electric Mobility。 Jupiter Electric Mobility 隸屬於印度 Jupiter Wagons Limited，該公司生產軌道車、商用和重型車輛以及海運集裝箱。

We note that this is our second eBeam announcement with our first being The second announcement, a test to AAM's ability to combine electric drive technology to a full beam axle configuration, providing optimal performance for electric commercial vehicle applications.

我們注意到，這是我們第二次發布 eBeam，我們的第一次發布是第二次發布，這是對 AAM 將電驅動技術與全梁軸配置相結合的能力的測試，為電動商用車應用提供最佳性能。

Also, we're very happy to share that AAM will supply TracRite Electronic Locking Differentials for a new electric SUV program, providing superior traction for multiple applications and enhancing passenger safety.

此外，我們很高興地宣布，AAM 將為新的電動 SUV 項目提供 TracRite 電子鎖止差速器，為多種應用提供卓越的牽引力並提高乘客安全。

During CES, many of you experienced this technology firsthand. This vehicles is a derivative of what is out in the market today and the performance of the SUV version should be equally as impressive. AAM is in a great position to provide a full portfolio of products from EV components such as gears and differentials to full electric drive systems.

在 CES 期間，你們中的許多人親身體驗了這項技術。這輛車是當今市場上的衍生車型，SUV 版本的性能應該同樣令人印象深刻。 AAM 有能力提供從齒輪和差速器等 EV 組件到全電驅動系統的完整產品組合。

For the full year 2022, it was certainly an eventful year with many accomplishments. I want to highlight just a few. After much anticipation, we announced and launched one of the most sophisticated and highly engineered electric drive units in the Mercedes-AMG GT 63 performance vehicle.

對於 2022 年全年來說，這無疑是多事之秋，成就斐然。我想強調幾個。在萬眾期待之後，我們宣布並推出了梅賽德斯-AMG GT 63 高性能車輛中最精密、設計最先進的電驅動單元之一。

This vehicle is an engineering marvel, and we are excited to support a globally recognized premium performance brand in Mercedes-AMG. In addition, last year, we were awarded multiple contracts with major global OEMs for electric components and drive units.

這輛車是一個工程奇蹟，我們很高興能夠支持梅賽德斯-AMG 全球公認的高性能品牌。此外，去年，我們與全球主要原始設備製造商簽訂了多項電子元件和驅動裝置合同。

Our strategy to support the full e-Propulsion value chain to OEMs is taking hold and expanding. As a technology leader with a focus on innovation, we are excited to be recognized as 3 Automotive News PACE Awards in 2022 and for our current P3 electric drive unit, our collaboration with Mercedes-AMG and for our highly integrated 3-in-1 drive unit that will launch in the coming years.

我們為原始設備製造商提供完整電動推進價值鏈支持的戰略正在紮根並不斷擴展。作為專注於創新的技術領導者，我們很高興在 2022 年獲得 3 項汽車新聞 PACE 獎，以及我們目前的 P3 電驅動單元、我們與梅賽德斯-AMG 的合作以及我們高度集成的三合一驅動器將在未來幾年推出的單位。

All the while, we secured our legacy core business with more than $10 billion of lifetime revenue for next-generation of full-size truck axle programs from mid-decade to beyond the 2030 calendar year period of time. AAM was also recently named the new axle supplier for GM's next-generation Colorado and Canyon programs, a conquest business win for us.

一直以來，從十年中期到 2030 日曆年之後，我們為下一代全尺寸卡車車橋項目提供超過 100 億美元的終身收入，從而確保了我們的傳統核心業務。 AAM 最近還被指定為通用汽車下一代科羅拉多和峽谷計劃的新車橋供應商，這對我們來說是一項征服業務的勝利。

This is a great program for us, and it fits nicely with our mission of securing legacy business as we transition to electric. We anticipate full production ramp yet this year and as 2023 unfolds, we'll see the full effect of that. We also welcome the Tekfor Group to the AAM family. Their technical expertise in improving friction and surface treatment is extremely pertinent for e-propulsion applications as well as expanding customer and geographic diversification.

這對我們來說是一個很棒的計劃，它非常符合我們在向電動汽車過渡時確保傳統業務安全的使命。我們預計今年將全面提升產量，隨著 2023 年的到來，我們將看到其全部影響。我們也歡迎 Tekfor Group 加入 AAM 大家庭。他們在改善摩擦和表面處理方面的技術專長與電動推進應用以及擴大客戶和地域多元化極為相關。

Furthermore, we received a number of additional recognitions, including being named one of Forbes' Best Large Employers not only in 2022, but also already here in 2023. Additionally, Newsweek recognized AAM as one of America's most responsible companies.

此外，我們還獲得了許多額外的認可，包括不僅在 2022 年被評為福布斯最佳大型雇主之一，而且已經在 2023 年入選。此外，《新聞周刊》將 AAM 評為美國最負責任的公司之一。

Now let's talk about our long-term strategy. As I said before, our strategy is very straightforward. We'll continue to secure our legacy core business, optimize our operations and drive EBITDA and cash flow generation. As buying returns, this business model is designed to yield handsome conversion. At the same time, we will continue to invest in electrification and solidify our position as a global leader in e-propulsion systems providing OEMs with cost-effective, high-value solutions.

現在讓我們談談我們的長期戰略。正如我之前所說，我們的策略非常簡單。我們將繼續保護我們的傳統核心業務，優化我們的運營並推動 EBITDA 和現金流的產生。作為購買回報，這種商業模式旨在產生可觀的轉化率。與此同時，我們將繼續投資於電氣化，鞏固我們作為電動推進系統全球領導者的地位，為原始設備製造商提供具有成本效益的高價值解決方案。

On the electrification front, we recently hosted an investor event and displayed our electric drive systems and components at CES where we demonstrate our industry-leading electric drive technology. It is great to see many investors experience our engineering firsthand while having the opportunity to drive our electrification demonstration vehicles across multiple vehicle segments.

在電氣化方面，我們最近舉辦了一場投資者活動，並在 CES 上展示了我們的電驅動系統和組件，展示了我們行業領先的電驅動技術。很高興看到許多投資者親身體驗我們的工程，同時有機會在多個汽車領域駕駛我們的電氣化示範車輛。

What differentiates AAM is our platform technology that can accommodate the electric propulsion needs across light vehicle segments, ranging from small cars to light commercial vehicle applications. The flexibility and modularity provides legacy and start-up OEMs with superior optionality from components, gearboxes, motors, power electronics to full systems and eBeam axles. We hope that we clearly conveyed that message to you at CES.

AAM 的與眾不同之處在於我們的平台技術可以滿足從小型汽車到輕型商用車應用等輕型車輛細分市場的電力推進需求。靈活性和模塊化為傳統和初創 OEM 提供了從組件、變速箱、電機、電力電子到完整系統和 eBeam 車軸的卓越選擇。我們希望我們在 CES 上向您清楚地傳達了這一信息。

Before I turn it over to Chris, let me reiterate our 3-year new business backlog that we shared during our Technology Day and discuss -- when we also discuss our 2023 full year financial outlook that was included in our press release this morning.

在我把它交給克里斯之前，讓我重申我們在技術日期間分享和討論的 3 年新業務積壓工作——當時我們還討論了今天上午新聞稿中包含的 2023 年全年財務展望。

AAM expects our gross new business backlog covering a 3-year period of 2023 to 2025 to be approximately $725 million. We expect to launch cadence of this backlog to be $350 million in 2023, $225 million in 2024 and $150 million in 2025.

AAM 預計從 2023 年到 2025 年的 3 年期間，我們的新業務積壓總額約為 7.25 億美元。我們預計 2023 年啟動此積壓訂單的節奏為 3.5 億美元，2024 年為 2.25 億美元，2025 年為 1.5 億美元。

Our backlog factors in the impact of updated customer launch timing, our latest customer volume expectations and does not include replacement business, only new and incremental business.

我們的積壓因素會影響更新的客戶發佈時間、我們最新的客戶量預期，並且不包括替換業務，僅包括新的和增量業務。

From a launch standpoint, we have 17 major launches here in 2023, which should drive growth over the next several years. For the backlog breakdown, please refer to Slide 6 in our presentation package, 40% stems from electrification compared to 35% last year. And our approach to electrification is gaining traction in our book of business. And currently, as we've communicated before, we're quoting approximately $1.5 billion of new and incremental business with over 75% of the quotes that we're working on coming from electrification programs.

從發布的角度來看，我們將在 2023 年在這裡進行 17 項重大發布，這將推動未來幾年的增長。有關積壓的明細，請參閱我們演示文稿中的幻燈片 6，其中 40% 來自電氣化，而去年為 35%。我們的電氣化方法在我們的業務中越來越受歡迎。目前，正如我們之前所傳達的那樣，我們正在引用大約 15 億美元的新業務和增量業務，其中超過 75% 的報價來自電氣化項目。

Let's talk about 2023 from an end market perspective. We forecast production at approximately 14.5 million to 15.1 million units for our primary North American market. This represents anywhere between a 1% to a 6% increase over last year. Because of the industry's recent production trends stemming from multiple factors, including the supply chain challenges and macro environment I mentioned earlier, we remain cautious about the build environment in 2023 at this time.

讓我們從終端市場的角度談談2023。我們預測北美主要市場的產量約為 1450 萬至 1510 萬台。這比去年增加了 1% 到 6%。由於行業最近的生產趨勢源於多種因素，包括我前面提到的供應鏈挑戰和宏觀環境，我們目前對 2023 年的建設環境保持謹慎。

As such, Slide 7 illustrates AAM's 2023 financial outlook. AAM is targeting sales of $5.95 billion to $6.25 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $725 million to $800 million, adjusted free cash flow of approximately $225 million to $300 million, which assumes capital spending in the range of 3.5% to 4% of sales.

因此，幻燈片 7 展示了 AAM 的 2023 年財務前景。 AAM 的目標銷售額為 59.5 億美元至 62.5 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 約為 7.25 億美元至 8 億美元，調整後的自由現金流約為 2.25 億美元至 3 億美元，假設資本支出佔銷售額的 3.5% 至 4%。

In the near term, we will remain focused on mitigating inflation, optimizing our business and addressing cost recoveries. Furthermore, we'll remain aggressive in our plans to position the company for future margin expansion. This includes our focus on plant capacity and utilization, variable and structural cost improvements and further reducing the capital intensity of our business.

在短期內，我們將繼續專注於緩解通貨膨脹、優化我們的業務和解決成本回收問題。此外，我們將繼續積極制定我們的計劃，為公司未來的利潤率擴張做好準備。這包括我們關注工廠產能和利用率、可變成本和結構性成本改進，以及進一步降低我們業務的資本密集度。

These initiatives will have a positive impact on our business over the next several years. And as we stated at CES, our goal is to continue to be a top-tier margin performer and cash flow generator. In the longer term, we will continue to focus on securing our core business, generating strong free cash flow, strengthening our balance sheet, advancing our electrification portfolio and positioning AAM for profitable growth, especially in the area of electrification.

這些舉措將在未來幾年對我們的業務產生積極影響。正如我們在 CES 上所說，我們的目標是繼續成為一流的利潤率和現金流產生者。從長遠來看，我們將繼續專注於保護我們的核心業務，產生強勁的自由現金流，加強我們的資產負債表，推進我們的電氣化產品組合，並將 AAM 定位為盈利增長，尤其是在電氣化領域。

I'm very excited about what lies ahead for AAM. And that concludes my remarks today. Let me now turn the call over to our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May. Chris?

我對 AAM 的未來感到非常興奮。我今天的發言到此結束。現在讓我將電話轉交給我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官克里斯·梅。克里斯？

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. I will cover the financial details of our fourth quarter and full year 2022 with you today. I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments.

謝謝你，大衛，大家早上好。我今天將與您一起介紹我們第四季度和 2022 年全年的財務細節。我還將參考收益幻燈片作為我準備好的評論的一部分。

So let's go ahead and begin with sales. In the fourth quarter of 2022, AAM sales were $1.39 billion compared to $1.24 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021. Slide 10 shows a walk of fourth quarter 2021 sales to fourth quarter 2022 sales.

因此，讓我們繼續並從銷售開始。 2022 年第四季度，AAM 的銷售額為 13.9 億美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 12.4 億美元。幻燈片 10 顯示了 2021 年第四季度銷售額與 2022 年第四季度銷售額的對比。

In the quarter, we experienced a lower negative impact from semiconductor and supply chain challenges, which we estimate at approximately $21 million. Positive volume mix and other was $128 million. The Tekfor acquisition contributed $84 million to sales.

在本季度，我們受到半導體和供應鏈挑戰的負面影響較小，我們估計約為 2100 萬美元。正銷量組合和其他為 1.28 億美元。對 Tekfor 的收購為銷售額貢獻了 8400 萬美元。

And lastly, metal market pass-throughs and FX lowered net sales by approximately $68 million with metal and FX both lower. Although sales were up year-over-year, we note that supply chain volatility continued sequentially from the third quarter, resulting in frequent changes to schedules.

最後，金屬市場傳遞和外匯使淨銷售額減少了約 6800 萬美元，金屬和外匯均下跌。儘管銷售額同比增長，但我們注意到供應鏈波動從第三季度開始連續不斷，導致時間表頻繁變化。

For the full year of 2022, AAM sales were $5.8 billion compared to $5.16 billion for the full year of 2021. The primary drivers of this increase with the Tekfor acquisition, which occurred on June 1 and accounted for approximately $200 million in sales, and additional volume and mix throughout the year.

2022 年全年，AAM 的銷售額為 58 億美元，而 2021 年全年為 51.6 億美元。這一增長的主要驅動因素是 6 月 1 日收購 Tekfor，銷售額約為 2 億美元，另外全年的數量和組合。

Now let's move on to profitability. Gross profit was $167.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 as compared to $140 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. Adjusted EBITDA was $157.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 versus $164.6 million last year.

現在讓我們繼續討論盈利能力。 2022 年第四季度的毛利潤為 1.672 億美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 1.4 億美元。2022 年第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.577 億美元，而去年同期為 1.646 億美元。

You can see the year-over-year walk down of adjusted EBITDA on Slide 11. In the quarter, higher sales due to a lower impact of semiconductor availability and overall volume and mix and other added a net $39 million of adjusted EBITDA versus the prior year.

您可以在幻燈片 11 中看到調整後 EBITDA 的同比下降。在本季度，由於半導體可用性和整體數量和組合的影響較小，銷售額增加，與之前相比，調整後的 EBITDA 淨增加了 3900 萬美元年。

Fourth quarter material, freight and utility inflation, net of customer recoveries was an $8 million headwind. The net headwind for all of 2022 was $60 million and in line with previous estimates. R&D was higher by approximately $18 million to support product launches and our electrification portfolio.

第四季度材料、運費和公用事業通貨膨脹（扣除客戶回收）是 800 萬美元的逆風。 2022 年全年的淨逆風為 6000 萬美元，與之前的估計一致。研發增加了約 1800 萬美元，以支持產品發布和我們的電氣化產品組合。

You may recall, last year, we had the benefit of a large customer ED&D reimbursement that accounts for most of this year-over-year difference. And lastly, Tekfor added approximately $5 million in adjusted EBITDA.

您可能還記得，去年，我們受益於大客戶 ED&D 報銷，這佔了同比差異的大部分。最後，Tekfor 的調整後 EBITDA 增加了約 500 萬美元。

For the full year of 2022, AAM's adjusted EBITDA was $747.3 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 12.9% of sales.

2022 年全年，AAM 的調整後 EBITDA 為 7.473 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率為銷售額的 12.9%。

Let me now cover SG&A. SG&A expense, including R&D, in the fourth quarter of 2022 was $88.5 million or 6.4% of sales. This compares to $77.5 million or 6.3% of sales in the fourth quarter of 2021. AAM's R&D spending in the fourth quarter of 2022 was approximately $39 million.

現在讓我介紹 SG&A。 2022 年第四季度，包括研發在內的 SG&A 費用為 8850 萬美元，佔銷售額的 6.4%。相比之下，2021 年第四季度為 7750 萬美元，佔銷售額的 6.3%。AAM 在 2022 年第四季度的研發支出約為 3900 萬美元。

As we head into 2023, we will continue to focus on controlling our SG&A costs and investing in our electric drive technology, capitalizing on the growing number of electrification opportunities that are before us. And we expect R&D to increase in 2023 and be closer to the $40 million per quarter on average, although timing can be lumpy.

隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們將繼續專注於控制我們的 SG&A 成本並投資於我們的電驅動技術，以利用擺在我們面前的越來越多的電氣化機會。我們預計研發將在 2023 年增加，平均每季度接近 4000 萬美元，儘管時間可能會起伏不定。

The good news here is we continue to see multiple new opportunities driving this spend. Let's move on to interest and taxes. Net interest expense was $36.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to $41.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2021. We continue to benefit from our debt reduction actions. In the fourth quarter of 2022, we reported income tax expense of $4.1 million compared to a benefit of $2.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2021.

這裡的好消息是我們繼續看到推動這一支出的多個新機會。讓我們繼續討論利息和稅收。 2022 年第四季度的淨利息支出為 3690 萬美元，而 2021 年第四季度為 4180 萬美元。我們繼續受益於我們的債務削減行動。 2022 年第四季度，我們報告的所得稅費用為 410 萬美元，而 2021 年第四季度的收益為 230 萬美元。

As we head into 2023, we expect our adjusted effective tax rate to be approximately 20% to 25%. Taking all these sales and cost drivers into account, our GAAP net income was $13.9 million or $0.11 per share in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to a net loss of $46.3 million or a loss of $0.41 per share in the fourth quarter of 2021.

隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們預計調整後的有效稅率約為 20% 至 25%。將所有這些銷售和成本驅動因素考慮在內，我們在 2022 年第四季度的 GAAP 淨收入為 1390 萬美元或每股 0.11 美元，而 2021 年第四季度的淨虧損為 4630 萬美元或每股虧損 0.41 美元。

Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release, was a loss of $0.07 per share in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to a loss of $0.09 per share in the fourth quarter of 2021. For the full year of 2022, AAM's adjusted earnings per share was $0.60 versus $0.93 in 2021.

調整後的每股收益（不包括我們的收益新聞稿中提到的項目的影響）在 2022 年第四季度為每股虧損 0.07 美元，而 2021 年第四季度為每股虧損 0.09 美元。全年到 2022 年，AAM 的調整後每股收益為 0.60 美元，而 2021 年為 0.93 美元。

Let's now move on to cash flow and the balance sheet. Net cash provided by operating activities for the fourth quarter of 2022 was $148.5 million. Capital expenditures, net of proceeds from the sale of property, plant and equipment for the fourth quarter of 2022 were $53.1 million.

現在讓我們繼續討論現金流量和資產負債表。 2022 年第四季度經營活動提供的現金淨額為 1.485 億美元。 2022 年第四季度資本支出扣除出售不動產、廠房和設備所得款項後為 5310 萬美元。

Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the fourth quarter of 2022 were $6.6 million. The net cash inflow related to the Malvern fire was $3 million in the quarter.

2022 年第四季度重組和收購相關活動的現金支付為 660 萬美元。本季度與馬爾文火災相關的淨現金流入為 300 萬美元。

Reflecting the impact of these activities, AAM generated adjusted free cash flow of $99 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. For the full year of 2022, AAM generated adjusted free cash flow of $313 million compared to $423 million in 2021. As a team, we remain focused on free cash flow conversion, including managing CapEx effectiveness and efficiency and reducing cash restructuring payments.

為反映這些活動的影響，AAM 在 2022 年第四季度產生了 9900 萬美元的調整後自由現金流。2022 年全年，AAM 產生了 3.13 億美元的調整後自由現金流，而 2021 年為 4.23 億美元。作為一個團隊，我們仍然專注於自由現金流轉換，包括管理資本支出的有效性和效率以及減少現金重組支付。

From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the year with a net debt of $2.4 billion and LTM adjusted EBITDA of $747.3 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 3.2x at December 31. This is down from a 3.3x leverage ratio at September 30, 2022.

從債務槓桿的角度來看，我們年底的淨債務為 24 億美元，LTM 調整後的 EBITDA 為 7.473 億美元，計算得出截至 12 月 31 日的淨槓桿率為 3.2 倍。這低於 9 月 30 日的 3.3 倍槓桿率， 2022.

In 2022, we lowered our gross debt by over $150 million, including $50 million inside of the fourth quarter. We will continue to utilize the free cash flow generating power of AAM to strengthen the balance sheet by reducing our debt. In addition, we refinanced our Term Loan B in the fourth quarter and now have no significant maturities until 2026.

2022 年，我們將總債務減少了超過 1.5 億美元，其中包括第四季度的 5000 萬美元。我們將繼續利用 AAM 的自由現金流產生能力，通過減少債務來加強資產負債表。此外，我們在第四季度對我們的定期貸款 B 進行了再融資，現在到 2026 年都沒有重大到期日。

AAM ended 2022 with total available liquidity of approximately $1.4 billion, consisting of available cash and borrowing capacity on AAM's global credit facilities.

截至 2022 年，AAM 的可用流動資金總額約為 14 億美元，包括可用現金和 AAM 全球信貸額度的借貸能力。

So before we move on to the Q&A portion of the call, let me provide some thoughts on our 2023 financial outlook. In our earnings slide deck, we have included walks from 2022 actual results to our 2023 financial targets and you can find those starting on Slide 13.

因此，在我們繼續電話會議的問答部分之前，讓我就我們 2023 年的財務前景提出一些想法。在我們的收益幻燈片中，我們包含了從 2022 年實際結果到我們 2023 年財務目標的步驟，您可以在幻燈片 13 中找到這些內容。

For sales, we are targeting a range of $5.95 billion to $6.25 billion for 2023. This sales target is based upon a North America production of 14.5 million to 15.1 million units and select assumptions for our key programs.

對於銷售額，我們的目標是 2023 年達到 59.5 億美元至 62.5 億美元。該銷售目標基於北美 1450 萬至 1510 萬台的產量以及我們關鍵項目的選擇假設。

New business backlog launches of approximately $350 million and attrition of approximately $200 million. There is continued uncertainty in 2023, as David mentioned, although supply chain issues appear to be stabilizing relative to last year, the volatility that we experienced in the second half of 2022 looks to continue in the near term of 2023, though we remain cautiously optimistic that the operating environment will improve throughout the year.

新業務積壓啟動約 3.5 億美元，損耗約 2 億美元。正如大衛提到的，2023 年仍存在不確定性，儘管供應鏈問題相對於去年似乎趨於穩定，但我們在 2022 年下半年經歷的波動似乎將在 2023 年短期內繼續，儘管我們仍保持謹慎樂觀經營環境將全年改善。

From an EBITDA perspective, we are expecting adjusted EBITDA in the range of $725 million to $800 million. Let me provide some color on the key elements of our year-over-year EBITDA walk on Page 14.

從 EBITDA 的角度來看，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將在 7.25 億至 8 億美元之間。讓我在第 14 頁上提供一些關於我們同比 EBITDA 走動的關鍵要素的顏色。

First, we expect to convert our recurring year-over-year product volume and mix increases at approximately 25% variable profit. Second, the incremental portion attributable to the Tekfor acquisition principally represents 5 additional months of profit contribution in 2023 versus 2022.

首先，我們預計將我們的經常性同比產品數量和混合增長以大約 25% 的可變利潤進行轉換。其次，歸因於 Tekfor 收購的增量部分主要代表 2023 年與 2022 年相比增加 5 個月的利潤貢獻。

Keep in mind, since this is the annualization of an acquisition, the additional profit contribution is realized at a full cost margin profile and not variable profit rates. Third, our R&D spending will increase year-over-year as we invest in our future and support electrification projects that are in various stages of launch and development.

請記住，由於這是收購的年化，因此額外的利潤貢獻是在完整的成本利潤率而非可變利潤率下實現的。第三，我們的研發支出將逐年增加，因為我們投資於我們的未來並支持處於不同啟動和開發階段的電氣化項目。

Fourth, we anticipate some higher costs related to inflation this year, and our goal is to continue to successfully negotiate with our OEM customers for offsets. And lastly, in addition, AAM expects to deliver operational productivity to mitigate some of these inflationary costs and efficiency pressures we are experiencing inside of our own operations. You can see a continued year-over-year performance on our walk of a net positive $10 million.

第四，我們預計今年與通貨膨脹相關的成本會更高，我們的目標是繼續成功地與我們的 OEM 客戶就抵消進行談判。最後，此外，AAM 期望提供運營生產力，以減輕我們在自己的運營中遇到的一些通貨膨脹成本和效率壓力。您可以在我們的 1000 萬美元淨收益中看到持續的同比表現。

On Page 15, from an adjusted free cash flow perspective, we are targeting approximately $225 million to $300 million in 2023. The main factors driving our cash flow changes are as follows: we have capital expenditures as we are coming upon some key launches and investments such as automation and electrification business. However, our CapEx to sales ratio is still very low by our historical measures, as we are targeting a CapEx as a percent of sales of approximately 3.5% to 4%.

在第 15 頁，從調整後的自由現金流的角度來看，我們的目標是在 2023 年達到約 2.25 億美元至 3 億美元。推動我們現金流變化的主要因素如下： 我們有資本支出，因為我們正在進行一些關鍵的啟動和投資如自動化和電氣化業務。然而，根據我們的歷史衡量標準，我們的資本支出與銷售額的比率仍然很低，因為我們的目標是資本支出佔銷售額的百分比約為 3.5% 至 4%。

We also are expecting higher cash interest and taxes, and we do see opportunity to improve working capital, in particular, related to inventory. And lastly, while not included in our adjusted free cash flow figures, we estimate our restructuring payments, primarily or related to the integration of our recent acquisitions to be in the range of $20 million to $30 million for 2023.

我們還預計會有更高的現金利息和稅收，我們確實看到了改善營運資金的機會，尤其是與庫存相關的營運資金。最後，雖然未包括在我們調整後的自由現金流數字中，但我們估計 2023 年的重組付款（主要或與我們近期收購的整合相關）將在 2000 萬至 3000 萬美元之間。

This continues a multiyear trend for a reduction of these type of expenditures. We expect to use the free cash flow generated in 2023 to continue to reduce debt, further solidify our position in electrification and take advantage of select market opportunities to support growth should they arise.

這延續了多年來減少此類支出的趨勢。我們預計將利用 2023 年產生的自由現金流繼續減少債務，進一步鞏固我們在電氣化領域的地位，並利用精選的市場機會來支持出現的增長。

As it relates to cadence for the year, we anticipate the first quarter to experience the lowest sales per production day and an overweight timing of price reductions. We also expect to realize a disproportion of impact from cost headwinds similar to what we experienced last year.

由於它與今年的節奏有關，我們預計第一季度每個生產日的銷售額將是最低的，並且降價的時間過長。我們還預計，與我們去年經歷的類似，成本逆風的影響將不成比例。

These costs typically include a timing aspect where recoveries occur in the following quarters. As the year progresses, we forecast these net costs to improve on a quarter-over-quarter basis. In addition, our new business backlog timing increases throughout the year.

這些成本通常包括時間方面，其中回收發生在接下來的幾個季度。隨著時間的推移，我們預測這些淨成本將環比改善。此外，我們的新業務積壓時間全年都在增加。

And lastly, we would expect a more stable operating environment as the year goes along. So in conclusion, 2022 was a tough year driven by production choppiness, supply chain inconsistencies and input cost challenges, all ultimately impacting our cost structure.

最後，我們預計隨著時間的推移，運營環境會更加穩定。因此，總而言之，2022 年是艱難的一年，受生產波動、供應鏈不一致和投入成本挑戰的推動，所有這些最終都影響了我們的成本結構。

That said, AAM will continue to focus on what we can control, including driving optimization, successfully negotiating customer recoveries, integrating the Tekfor acquisition, executing on our capital allocation plan and developing class-leading electrification technology. We are actively positioning AAM to be the electric propulsion supplier of choice, and you can see evidence of that from our growing backlog and electrification mix.

也就是說，AAM 將繼續專注於我們可以控制的事情，包括推動優化、成功談判客戶恢復、整合對 Tekfor 的收購、執行我們的資本配置計劃以及開發一流的電氣化技術。我們正在積極地將 AAM 定位為首選的電力推進供應商，您可以從我們不斷增長的積壓訂單和電氣化組合中看到這一點的證據。

So as costs stabilize, volumes return and the realization of cost optimization improvements, outlined by David earlier, AAM should generate nice future EBITDA conversion translating to continued robust free cash flow generation.

因此，隨著成本穩定、銷量回升和成本優化改進的實現，正如 David 之前概述的那樣，AAM 應該會產生良好的未來 EBITDA 轉換，轉化為持續強勁的自由現金流產生。

Thank you for your time and participation on the call today. I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David so we can start Q&A. David?

感謝您抽出時間參加今天的電話會議。我要在這裡停下來，把電話轉回給大衛，這樣我們就可以開始問答了。大衛？

Thank you, Chris and David. We have reserved some time to take questions. (Operator Instructions) So at this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions you may have.

謝謝克里斯和大衛。我們預留了一些時間來回答問題。 （操作員說明）所以此時，請隨時回答您可能有的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from John Murphy from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自美國銀行的約翰墨菲。

A first question on the step-up in R&D. I mean we saw some of the fruits of that in its early stages in some of the stuff -- the products you showed us out in Vegas, packaging around the inverter and the electric motor were very interesting and fairly unique.

關於研發升級的第一個問題。我的意思是我們在某些東西的早期階段看到了一些成果——你在拉斯維加斯向我們展示的產品、逆變器和電動機周圍的包裝非常有趣且相當獨特。

But I'm just curious, as you think about this R&D step up, how much of it is program based for products that are in the bidding process and you may have won versus product development to really go and pitch your EV technology to the -- to your consumers?

但我很好奇，當你考慮這一研發升級時，其中有多少是基於投標過程中產品的程序，你可能已經贏得了與產品開發的競爭，從而真正將你的 EV 技術推向 - - 對你的消費者？

I'm just trying to understand how much of this is structural going forward or how much is kind of a step-up here in the short run as well?

我只是想了解其中有多少是結構性的，或者在短期內有多少是一種升級？

John, this is David. I would say a lot of our initial spending right now is more on the platform-based technology to get our portfolio in a position that we can actively market to our customers. Clearly, there will be some program-based spending as we win new business going forward. But the majority is platform-based to put the product line in place.

約翰，這是大衛。我想說的是，我們現在的很多初始支出更多地用於基於平台的技術，以使我們的產品組合處於可以積極向客戶推銷的位置。顯然，隨著我們未來贏得新業務，將會有一些基於項目的支出。但大多數是基於平台的，以將產品線放到位。

And once that product line is in place, then we'll expect that to scale down. But hopefully, some of the program wins will -- may require us to spend some additional electrification engineering resources or R&D as we book new business.

一旦該產品線到位，我們就會預計它會縮減規模。但希望某些項目獲勝——可能需要我們在預訂新業務時花費一些額外的電氣化工程資源或研發。

Okay. And then just sort of a housekeeping or 2 quick housekeeping, Chris. The volatility in schedules and the disruption, can you just remind us what that cost you in 2022? What you expect in 2023? And then also, when we think about gross versus net-on-net new business or new business, it seems like there's a big attrition this year of $200 million. How should we think about attrition against that gross business bookings over time?

好的。然後只是一種內務處理或 2 次快速內務處理，克里斯。時間表的波動和中斷，你能提醒我們你在 2022 年付出了什麼代價嗎？您對 2023 年有何期待？然後，當我們考慮新業務或新業務的淨值與淨值時，今年似乎有 2 億美元的巨大減員。隨著時間的推移，我們應該如何考慮總業務預訂量的流失？

Yes, John, in terms of your first question associated with the efficiency impacts. If you think about -- if you look at our -- the walks that we provided throughout the course of the year, we have a column there called performance and other. And for example, in the fourth quarter, it's minus $13 million.

是的，約翰，就你第一個與效率影響相關的問題而言。如果你想想——如果你看看我們——我們在整個一年中提供的散步，我們在那裡有一個名為性能和其他的專欄。例如，在第四季度，它減少了 1300 萬美元。

The vast majority of that would be associated with the impact of some of that volatility. So you saw that both in the third quarter, which was a little lighter than that. You saw some further onset in the fourth quarter that we articulated. The variances that you saw in the first half of 2022, I wouldn't really articulate those more as efficiency related to the volatility because those were comparing to periods, I would call them, an almost near-COVID shutdown type of activity at the beginning of '21. But that -- those variances that you see on our walks in the back half of the year would be by and large indicative of what we're experiencing through our operations.

其中絕大多數與某些波動的影響有關。所以你在第三季度看到了這兩個，比那更輕一些。您在我們闡明的第四季度看到了進一步的發展。您在 2022 年上半年看到的差異，我不會真正將這些更多地表述為與波動性相關的效率，因為這些是與期間進行比較，我稱它們為開始時幾乎接近 COVID 關閉類型的活動21 年的。但是，你在今年下半年的散步中看到的那些差異大體上表明了我們在運營中所經歷的事情。

The second question -- does that answer your question?

第二個問題——這是否回答了您的問題？

Yes. So I mean, so you're talking about something that's in the $20 million, $30 million range, if you -- I mean if you kind of put that together?

是的。所以我的意思是，所以你說的是 2000 萬美元、3000 萬美元之間的東西，如果你——我的意思是如果你把它們放在一起？

Yes, over the back half, that's what we experienced, correct, that's reasonable.

是的，在後半段，這就是我們所經歷的，正確的，這是合理的。

And do you expect that to continue into 2023 at the same rate eventually if the world stabilizes, that would then go away? Is that a fair statement?

如果世界穩定下來，你是否預計這種情況最終會以同樣的速度持續到 2023 年，然後就會消失？這是一個公平的說法嗎？

Yes, that's a fair statement. Correct.

是的，這是一個公平的聲明。正確的。

Okay.

好的。

And I think your second question then was associated with attrition. We have $200 million of attrition on our year-over-year sales walk that relates to some programs in China and also some in North America. We have historically said the impact associated with that was between $100 million to $200 million. This year is at the higher end of the range. I would think more closer towards the midpoint kind of in the subsequent years.

我認為你的第二個問題與人員流失有關。我們的年度銷售流失了 2 億美元，這與中國和北美的一些項目有關。從歷史上看，我們曾說過與此相關的影響在 1 億到 2 億美元之間。今年處於該範圍的高端。我會認為在隨後的幾年中更接近中點。

Our next question comes from Dan Levy from Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Dan Levy。

Wondering if you could just talk a bit to the mix trend? Obviously, T1, if you look at some of the third-party schedules, I think that's forecasting them to be down year-over-year. Can you just talk about the impact of mix on margins?

想知道您是否可以談談混合趨勢？顯然，T1，如果你看一些第三方時間表，我認為這是預測它們會同比下降。您能談談混合對利潤率的影響嗎？

Yes. So from a broad perspective, as associated with mix as it relates to -- if you think about our 2 largest programs, T1, Ram's obviously a large program. I'll come back to (inaudible) in a minute. The rest of production, I would expect to continue as volumes come back that to increase on the rest of the business, so that will start to increase its proportional sale mix of our overall business Ram, probably very similar year-over-year.

是的。因此，從廣泛的角度來看，與混合相關——如果你考慮我們的兩個最大程序 T1，Ram 顯然是一個大型程序。我會在一分鐘後回到（聽不清）。其餘的生產，我預計會繼續，因為其他業務的銷量會增加，因此這將開始增加我們整體業務 Ram 的比例銷售組合，可能與去年同期非常相似。

So obviously, you can compute how the mix would impact from that. And on the T1 perspective, I believe some estimates -- third-party estimates yesterday were just updated to be a little bit more elevated. I would think about that sort of the lower end of our sales range.

很明顯，你可以計算出混合會如何影響它。從 T1 的角度來看，我相信一些估計——昨天的第三方估計剛剛更新了一點點。我會考慮我們銷售範圍的低端。

We're a little more bullish on that platform. Our customers are a little more bullish on that platform, we believe. So think of our midpoint of the range, maybe about 5% higher than current IHS estimates, and we're probably a little higher than that at the high end of our range. But again, we're a little more bullish on that. But you'll see the rest of our book of business continue to grow as part of that mix.

我們更看好該平台。我們相信，我們的客戶對該平台更加看好。因此，想想我們的範圍中點，可能比目前 IHS 估計高出約 5%，而且我們可能比我們範圍的高端略高。但同樣，我們對此更加樂觀。但是你會看到我們業務的其餘部分作為這種組合的一部分繼續增長。

Great. And then the second question is on your electrification backlog. So your narrative on EV is that you have a variety of ways to win between subcomponents, the full 3-in-1 system. Could you maybe break down of that 40% of the backlog that is EV. Is there a rough idea of the mix on subcomponents, full drive units, some of the casing and the rough CTV that's implied there?

偉大的。然後第二個問題是關於你的電氣化積壓。所以你對 EV 的敘述是你有多種方式在子組件、完整的三合一系統之間取勝。您能否分解 EV 積壓的 40%。是否對子組件、完整驅動單元、一些外殼和那裡暗示的粗略 CTV 的組合有一個粗略的了解？

Yes. Dan, this is Chris again. Yes, the mix, think about it slightly more than half is associated on the -- think of the drive units, the other -- the remainder then would be on the component side. And then from a -- I think your second part of your question was content per vehicle.

是的。丹，我又是克里斯。是的，考慮到混合，略多於一半與 - 考慮驅動單元，另一個 - 其餘部分則在組件方面。然後從 - 我認為你問題的第二部分是每輛車的內容。

Obviously, on the drive units, as you've heard us maybe articulate our content per vehicle is very significant associated with those. Think of up to $2,500-plus. And then on the component side, depending on the vehicle, depending on the component supply, we could be up to $500 per vehicle.

顯然，在驅動單元上，正如您所聽到的那樣，我們可能會闡明我們每輛車的內容與這些內容非常重要。想想高達 2,500 美元以上。然後在組件方面，取決於車輛，取決於組件供應，我們每輛車可能高達 500 美元。

Our next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

First question on the Tekfor acquisition. It seems based on your 2023 walk, you're expecting maybe a margin contribution sort of like the low double-digits based on the guidance. Can you just remind us if this is the right margin profile for the business going forward or if there's more incremental opportunity for improvement?

關於 Tekfor 收購的第一個問題。看起來基於你 2023 年的步行，你期望利潤率貢獻可能有點像基於指導的低兩位數。您能否提醒我們，這是否是未來業務的正確利潤率概況，或者是否有更多的增量改進機會？

Yes. So if you think about -- they came on midyear, June 1, 2022. And if you look at the full year performance, the Tekfor had for us and contributed in 2022 from an EBITDA perspective, it was just a little bit north of 7%.

是的。所以如果你想想——它們是在 2022 年 6 月 1 日年中出現的。如果你看一下全年的表現，Tekfor 為我們在 2022 年從 EBITDA 的角度做出了貢獻，它只是略高於 7 %。

And you may recall, going into this transaction, we saw a great opportunity to expand some of our diversification in customers, but also a great synergy opportunity. So the incrementals you see coming online for 2023, you're sort of more than at 10% to 12.5% range.

你可能還記得，在進行這項交易時，我們看到了擴大客戶多元化的絕佳機會，同時也是一個很好的協同機會。因此，您看到的增量將在 2023 年上線，大約在 10% 到 12.5% 的範圍內。

So you're accomplishing a couple of elements that you're bringing on the full cost business for the first 5 months, plus you're starting to see some of those synergies start to kick in, in 2023. So that implies sort of $5 million to $10 million range of synergies coming online because you'll get a holistic lift to your margins. I would expect synergies to continue to grow after this period as well. And then obviously, once we transition past the full year '23, their change in revenues will be on a variable profit basis.

因此，您正在完成前 5 個月為全成本業務帶來的幾個要素，而且您開始看到其中一些協同效應在 2023 年開始發揮作用。這意味著大約 5 美元數百萬至 1000 萬美元的協同效應即將上線，因為您的利潤率將得到全面提升。我預計在此期間之後協同效應也將繼續增長。然後很明顯，一旦我們過渡到 23 年全年，他們的收入變化將基於可變利潤。

Yes. That makes sense. I wanted to ask you about nonmaterial cost inflation. I think you had previously indicated you expect some of this inflation to be sticking around for the year. I don't really see it as a sort of a major factor in the walk. Is this not a headwind for this year? Or do you anticipate offsetting these cost increases with productivity?

是的。這就說得通了。我想問你關於非物質成本通脹的問題。我認為您之前曾表示您預計今年的部分通貨膨脹會持續存在。我真的不認為這是步行的主要因素。這不是今年的逆風嗎？還是您預計會用生產力來抵消這些成本增加？

Yes. No, it continues to be a headwind in particular areas such as labor and some other costs that we incur. It's included in our productivity, inflation and other common net column. If you think about in 2022, our net residual after customer recoveries for the bulk of this type of inflation was about $60 million.

是的。不，它在某些特定領域仍然是不利因素，例如勞動力和我們產生的其他一些成本。它包含在我們的生產率、通貨膨脹和其他常見淨值欄中。如果您考慮到 2022 年，我們在客戶收回大部分此類通貨膨脹後的淨剩餘約為 6000 萬美元。

We also had some labor inflation on top of that. Our expectation is that on a net basis is lower than that, lower than half of that here in 2023 versus 2022. But again, customer recoveries and productivity initiatives will help us set a lot.

除此之外，我們還有一些勞動力通脹。我們的預期是，在淨基礎上低於 2023 年與 2022 年相比的一半。但同樣，客戶恢復和生產力舉措將幫助我們設定很多。

Okay. And then very finally, if I can squeeze one more. So I guess in terms of overall message, right? So your (inaudible) are still fairly choppy, and that sort of continues to put some pressure on margin. What sort of -- what do you need to see to get back towards sort of like a path of stable margins or margin expansion? Is it just -- is it mostly around the volatility of schedules? Is it sort of like additional industry volume growth? I guess what would be needed for that?

好的。最後，如果我能再擠一個的話。所以我想就整體信息而言，對嗎？所以你的（聽不清）仍然相當不穩定，並且這種情況繼續對保證金施加一些壓力。什麼樣的——你需要看到什麼才能回到穩定利潤率或利潤率擴張的道路上？它只是 - 主要是圍繞時間表的波動性嗎？這有點像額外的行業銷量增長嗎？我想那需要什麼？

Yes, Emmanuel, this is David. I mean, clearly, the first thing is we just see stabilization in our business, right? We were dealing with so much uncertainty and volatility in our production schedules. So first thing is stabilization of the production schedules.

是的，伊曼紐爾，這是大衛。我的意思是，很明顯，第一件事就是我們看到業務穩定，對嗎？我們在生產計劃中應對如此多的不確定性和波動性。因此，首先是穩定生產計劃。

Clearly, any growth, as the market starts to recover and rebuild some of the inventory, I don't think the inventory will ever go back to historical levels, but incremental growth will be positive for us. And then we also need to see stabilization of the workforce from a labor standpoint. And we're not waiting around for that. We're making investments in automation and other things to take those things into our own control. But the biggest thing would be stabilization across the board.

顯然，任何增長，隨著市場開始復蘇並重建一些庫存，我認為庫存永遠不會回到歷史水平，但增量增長對我們來說是積極的。然後我們還需要從勞工的角度來看勞動力的穩定。我們不會坐以待斃。我們正在對自動化和其他事物進行投資，以將這些事物置於我們自己的控制之下。但最重要的是全面穩定。

And Emmanuel, this is Chris. That's from the labor perspective. Your question even more broadly as it relates to margins. Obviously, volume drives a lot of that stabilizing or reducing, even metal market reimbursements, obviously, inflation that we just talked about that you're asking about. And ultimately, as David mentioned in some of his prepared remarks, it continued to squeeze down on some of our fixed cost and capacity utilization increases will drive margin as well.

伊曼紐爾，這是克里斯。這是從勞動力的角度來看。你的問題更廣泛，因為它與利潤率有關。顯然，數量推動了很多穩定或減少，甚至是金屬市場報銷，顯然，我們剛才談到的你問的通貨膨脹。最終，正如大衛在他準備好的發言中提到的那樣，它繼續壓縮我們的一些固定成本，產能利用率的提高也將推動利潤率。

Our next question comes from James Picariello from BNP Paribas.

我們的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 James Picariello。

Just as a follow-on to the last question, just taking a step back and looking at by segment, thinking about most of nearly all of the R&D investments taking place in the Driveline segment, what is really -- what are the driving forces that challenges in the metal forming segment?

作為最後一個問題的後續問題，退後一步，按細分市場來看，考慮幾乎所有研發投資中的大部分都發生在傳動系統細分市場，真正的驅動力是什麼金屬成型領域的挑戰？

And does this fourth quarter represent the bottom, right? I mean because we've seen some pretty notable sequential refines from an EBITDA perspective. Does the fourth quarter mark the bottom for metal forming? And if not, just time line on that? And when does this get better? When does this get better for this segment?

這個第四季度是否代表底部，對嗎？我的意思是因為從 EBITDA 的角度來看，我們已經看到了一些非常顯著的連續改進。第四季度是否標誌著金屬成型的底部？如果不是，那隻是時間線？什麼時候會好轉？這個細分市場什麼時候會好轉？

Yes, James, this is David. Yes, we do expect the fourth quarter this past year to be the bottom. Clearly, the big issue we're battling is labor availability in our metal forming area. We're working hard to stabilize that and also bring automation into those factories. But clearly, it's a heavy fixed cost business. We need volume running across it.

是的，詹姆斯，這是大衛。是的，我們確實預計去年第四季度將觸底。顯然，我們面臨的最大問題是金屬成型領域的勞動力供應問題。我們正在努力穩定這一點，並將自動化帶入這些工廠。但很明顯，這是一項沉重的固定成本業務。我們需要通過它的音量。

We clearly run a lot better when we have the incremental volume going across that. At the same time with scheduled volatility, you can't lay off people. So therefore, there's an incremental cost, the same 10 new people that we're bringing in don't have that experience level and we're incurring some incremental overtime and scrap that we historically haven't endured. But we do think the fourth quarter was the bottom of the metal form performance. We'll start seeing some improvement to that year quarter-to-quarter going forward.

當我們有增量的交易量時，我們顯然運行得更好。同時，隨著計劃的波動，你不能裁員。因此，存在增量成本，我們引入的 10 名新員工沒有那種經驗水平，而且我們正在招致一些增量加班和報廢，這是我們歷史上從未忍受過的。但我們確實認為第四季度是金屬形式表現的底部。我們將開始看到當年的季度環比有所改善。

And James, this is Chris. One other point I would add. You mentioned that the (inaudible) so, that the R&D is disproportionate on the Driveline segment of our business. What I would tell you, at least from an inflation standpoint perspective, utilities, costs and metal market impacts are overweight to the metal forming side of the business. So you see some of that on their margin pressure, and you saw that sort of play out through the course of 2022, as those cost elements moved around, and you saw inflation for utility, in particular in Europe, which is where they have a large concentration of businesses.

詹姆斯，這是克里斯。我還要補充一點。你提到（聽不清）所以，研發在我們業務的傳動系統部分是不成比例的。我要告訴你的是，至少從通貨膨脹的角度來看，公用事業、成本和金屬市場的影響對金屬成型業務的影響過大。所以你看到了他們的利潤壓力的一部分，你看到這種情況在整個 2022 年都在發生，因為這些成本因素四處移動，你看到公用事業的通貨膨脹，特別是在歐洲，這是他們有企業高度集中。

Got it. Understood. That's helpful. And then just one on interest expense. What's driving the higher interest expense? Is it -- was it the refi that took place in the fourth quarter just carrying a higher interest rate? Or should we assume you're carrying some more short-term related debt on the balance sheet?

知道了。明白了。這很有幫助。然後只有一個關於利息支出。是什麼推動了更高的利息支出？是 - 是第四季度發生的再融資只是帶來了更高的利率嗎？或者我們是否應該假設您的資產負債表上有更多短期相關債務？

Yes. I would tell you, it's a composition of 3 elements. First, we actually are -- although it's hard to see, receiving some benefits from our continued debt pay down. But the 2 elements driving the net cost up would be, one, when we refinanced our Term Loan B, the spread on that was up 125 basis points versus the Term Loan B that was originally put back in place in 2017.

是的。我會告訴你，它是由 3 個元素組成的。首先，我們實際上——雖然很難看到，從我們持續償還的債務中獲得了一些好處。但推動淨成本上升的兩個因素是，第一，當我們為我們的定期貸款 B 再融資時，與最初於 2017 年恢復的定期貸款 B 相比，利差上升了 125 個基點。

And secondly, as you know, this is a variable rate debt instrument. So it's effectively SOFR plus the spread and SOFR is now, what, 3x or 4x what it was a year ago. So that's really driving (inaudible). A good chunk of this we have hedged, but holistically, the rates are up on the variable debt instrument.

其次，如您所知，這是一種可變利率債務工具。所以它實際上是 SOFR 加上利差，而 SOFR 現在是一年前的 3 倍或 4 倍。所以這真的很驅動（聽不清）。我們已經對沖了其中很大一部分，但總體而言，可變債務工具的利率上升。

And ladies and gentlemen, our final question today will come from Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan.

女士們，先生們，我們今天的最後一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

How should we think about R&D and CapEx trending as a percentage of sales beyond 2023? And as we drill down to the impact on like EBITDA or FCF over a multiyear period, do you expect that the earnings and cash flow headwind from higher electrification spending is more of a like multiyear timing issue given that spending is taking place in advance of product launches and that the contribution margin when these products do launch will offset the higher cost over time? Or I guess said differently, like while dilutive initially is the pivot toward electrification accretive, dilutive or neutral to EBITDA margin and free cash conversion over the medium and long term?

我們應該如何看待 2023 年以後研發和資本支出佔銷售額的百分比趨勢？當我們深入研究多年期間對 EBITDA 或 FCF 的影響時，您是否認為更高電氣化支出帶來的收益和現金流逆風更像是一個多年時間問題，因為支出發生在產品之前推出這些產品時的邊際收益將抵消隨著時間的推移而增加的成本？或者我想換個說法，就像雖然最初是稀釋性的，但從中長期來看，電氣化的支點對 EBITDA 利潤率和自由現金轉換是增加的、稀釋的還是中性的？

Yes. From a cycle -- from a cash perspective, as you point out, and David mentioned in one of the previous questions, our R&D spend would be elevated as we're building out our product portfolio. That would then decline then you have some potential program specific R&D as you step into launches. But we would see some opportunity over an extended period of time, as you mentioned, in the future, we would expect this then to at some point pivot and decline down.

是的。從一個週期——從現金的角度來看，正如你所指出的，大衛在前面的一個問題中提到，我們的研發支出會隨著我們構建產品組合而增加。那會下降然後你有一些潛在的特定於程序的研發，因為你進入發布。但我們會在很長一段時間內看到一些機會，正如你提到的，在未來，我們預計這會在某個時候轉向並下降。

From a CapEx perspective, we're coming off of 2022, which was, I think, the lowest percent of sales for CapEx in the company's history. Our guide here this year, which continues to have program launches, also electrification element of it, still quite low by our historical standards to 3.5% to 4%.

從資本支出的角度來看，我們即將結束 2022 年，我認為這是公司歷史上資本支出佔銷售額的最低百分比。我們今年的指南繼續推出項目，其中也包括電氣化元素，按照我們的歷史標準，仍然很低，只有 3.5% 到 4%。

But our commentary around this has been to try to maintain our CapEx on the near and midterm at less than 5% of sales. We have been very focused on capital efficiency and effectiveness. And even as we're pivoting into electrification, continuing to maintain a good, healthy control and balance over our CapEx spend is a top priority for the company.

但我們對此的評論是試圖將我們的近期和中期資本支出維持在銷售額的 5% 以下。我們一直非常關注資本效率和有效性。即使我們正在轉向電氣化，繼續保持良好、健康的控制和平衡我們的資本支出也是公司的首要任務。

Now where could you see a different solution is when you win a significant amount of new and incremental business inside of the company where you would have to spend some extra dollars, we think that would be a great investment to make.

現在你在哪裡可以看到不同的解決方案是當你在公司內部贏得大量新的和增量業務時你將不得不花費一些額外的錢，我們認為這將是一項很好的投資。

Thank you, Ryan. And we want to thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM. We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future.

謝謝你，瑞安。我們要感謝所有參與此次電話會議的人，並感謝您對 AAM 的興趣。我們當然期待在未來與您交談。

Ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's conference call and presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，我們將結束今天的電話會議和演講。我們非常感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。