American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings Inc (AXL) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, everyone. My name is Jamie, and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the American Axle & Manufacturing First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. And at this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr. David Lim, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, Mr. Lim.

大家，早安。我的名字是 Jamie，今天我將成為您的會議主持人。在這個時候，我想歡迎大家參加 American Axle & Manufacturing 2022 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）作為提醒，今天的電話會議正在錄音中。在這個時候，我想請投資者關係主管 David Lim 先生髮言。請繼續，林先生。

Thank you, and good morning. I'd like to welcome everyone who is joining us on AAM's first quarter earnings call. Earlier this morning, we released our first quarter of 2022 earnings announcement. You can access this announcement on the Investor Relations page of our website, www.aam.com, and through the PR Newswire services. You can also find supplemental slides for this conference call on the Investor page of our website as well. To listen to a replay of this call, you can dial 1 (877) 344-7529, replay access code 7397562. This replay will be available through May 13.

謝謝你，早上好。我想歡迎所有加入我們參加 AAM 第一季度財報電話會議的人。今天早上早些時候，我們發布了 2022 年第一季度的收益公告。您可以在我們網站 www.aam.com 的投資者關係頁面上以及通過美通社服務訪問此公告。您還可以在我們網站的投資者頁面上找到本次電話會議的補充幻燈片。要收聽此通話的重播，您可以撥打 1 (877) 344-7529，重播訪問代碼 7397562。此重播將持續到 5 月 13 日。

Before we begin, I'd like to remind everyone that the matters discussed in this call may contain comments and forward-looking statements subject to risks and uncertainties, which cannot be predicted or quantified, and which may cause future activities and results of operations to differ materially from those discussed. For additional information, we ask that you refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在開始之前，我想提醒大家，本次電話會議討論的事項可能包含受風險和不確定性影響的評論和前瞻性陳述，這些風險和不確定性無法預測或量化，可能導致未來的活動和經營業績與討論的內容大不相同。如需更多信息，請參閱我們提交給證券交易委員會的文件。

Also, during this call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures as well as a reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to GAAP financial information is available on our website. With that, let me turn things over to AAM's Chairman and CEO, David Dauch.

此外，在本次電話會議中，我們可能會參考某些非公認會計準則財務指標。有關這些非 GAAP 措施的信息以及這些非 GAAP 措施與 GAAP 財務信息的對賬，請訪問我們的網站。有了這個，讓我把事情交給 AAM 的董事長兼首席執行官 David Dauch。

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss AAM's financial results for the first quarter of 2022. Joining me on the call today are Mike Simonte, AAM's President; and Chris May, AAM's Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，大衛，大家早上好。感謝您今天加入我們討論 AAM 2022 年第一季度的財務業績。今天和我一起參加電話會議的是 AAM 總裁 Mike Simonte；和 AAM 的副總裁兼首席財務官 Chris May。

I will review the highlights of our first quarter financial performance. Next, I will touch on some exciting news in the quarter, including our recent acquisition of Tekfor, an important win with Geely, AAM's PACE and PACEpilot award nominations for our electrification technology and the publication of our sustainability report. Lastly, I'll discuss our updated 2022 financial outlook before turning things over to Chris. After Chris covers the details of our financial results, we will open up the call for any questions that you may have.

我將回顧我們第一季度財務業績的亮點。接下來，我將談談本季度的一些令人振奮的消息，包括我們最近收購 Tekfor、與吉利取得的重要勝利、AAM 的電氣化技術獲得 PACE 和 PACEpilot 獎提名以及我們的可持續發展報告的發布。最後，在將事情交給克里斯之前，我將討論我們更新的 2022 年財務展望。在克里斯介紹了我們財務業績的詳細信息後，我們將向您提出任何問題。

So let's begin. AAM's first quarter 2022 financial results were affected by rising input costs and the continuing global supply chain volatility. The unprecedented operating environment that started in 2020 continues into this year. That said, we remain focused on the qualities that differentiate AAM, which are operating excellence, product quality, ensuring the continuity of supply to our customers and generating profits and free cash flow.

那麼讓我們開始吧。 AAM 的 2022 年第一季度財務業績受到投入成本上升和全球供應鏈持續波動的影響。始於 2020 年的前所未有的運營環境一直持續到今年。也就是說，我們仍然專注於使 AAM 與眾不同的品質，即卓越運營、產品質量、確保向客戶供應的連續性以及產生利潤和自由現金流。

AAM's first quarter sales were $1.4 billion. Sales were impacted by volatile production, but schedules did improve somewhat on a quarter-over-quarter basis. We believe the OEMs will continue to prioritize their light truck schedules, which is good for AAM. However, supply chain stabilization, namely semiconductors may not occur until 2023.

AAM 第一季度的銷售額為 14 億美元。銷售受到生產波動的影響，但時間表確實在環比的基礎上有所改善。我們相信 OEM 將繼續優先考慮他們的輕型卡車時間表，這對 AAM 有利。然而，供應鏈穩定，即半導體可能要到 2023 年才會出現。

Inventory levels on key programs that we support remain low and consumer demand for these products appears resilient. Simply, OEMs cannot build their respective large SUVs and trucks fast enough. AAM's adjusted EBITDA in the second -- or in the first quarter of 2022 was $196 million or 13.7% of sales. In the quarter, we were negatively impacted by rising input costs, supply chain constraints and continued semiconductor disruptions.

我們支持的關鍵項目的庫存水平仍然很低，消費者對這些產品的需求似乎具有彈性。簡單地說，原始設備製造商無法以足夠快的速度製造各自的大型 SUV 和卡車。 AAM 在第二季度或 2022 年第一季度的調整後 EBITDA 為 1.96 億美元，佔銷售額的 13.7%。在本季度，我們受到投入成本上升、供應鏈限制和持續的半導體中斷的負面影響。

Material and utility inflation accounted for nearly 200 basis points of margin degradation in the quarter. These input cost headwinds will continue to be a challenge in this year. The operating teams are looking into cost structure improvements and value engineering initiatives. Additionally, we are also having an ongoing discussion with our OEM customers on offsetting this inflation. So far, we have made some progress and discussions have been constructive, but are still ongoing.

材料和公用事業通脹導致本季度利潤率下降近 200 個基點。這些投入成本逆風將在今年繼續成為挑戰。運營團隊正在研究成本結構改進和價值工程計劃。此外，我們還在與我們的 OEM 客戶就抵消這種通貨膨脹進行持續討論。到目前為止，我們已經取得了一些進展，討論也很有建設性，但仍在進行中。

AAM's earnings per share in the first quarter of 2022 was $0.01 per share. AAM's adjusted EPS was $0.19 per share. Even with these challenges, AAM continued to deliver positive free cash flow generation in the quarter. This is a compelling view of the strength of our operating model. AAM's first quarter 2022 adjusted free cash flow was $54 million.

AAM 2022 年第一季度的每股收益為每股 0.01 美元。 AAM 的調整後每股收益為 0.19 美元。即使面臨這些挑戰，AAM 在本季度仍繼續產生正的自由現金流。這是對我們運營模式實力的一個令人信服的看法。 AAM 2022 年第一季度調整後的自由現金流為 5400 萬美元。

Our capital allocation strategy is very straightforward. We continue to advance key strategic growth initiatives and strengthen the balance sheet, and we achieved both in the first quarter of 2022. Chris will provide additional information regarding the details of our financial results in a few minutes.

我們的資本配置策略非常簡單。我們繼續推進關鍵的戰略增長計劃並加強資產負債表，我們在 2022 年第一季度實現了這兩項目標。克里斯將在幾分鐘內提供有關我們財務業績細節的更多信息。

Now let's talk about some recent key highlights, which you can see on Slide 4 of our slide deck. We announced today AAM entered into a definitive agreement to acquire the Tekfor group for an enterprise value of EUR 125 million. We are very excited about this acquisition as it provides strong synergy potential, diversifies both our geographic and customer mix and enhances our portfolio in electrification components. This is a nice bolt-on acquisition for us, and we expect the deal to close in the second quarter.

現在讓我們談談最近的一些關鍵亮點，您可以在我們幻燈片的幻燈片 4 上看到這些亮點。我們今天宣布，AAM 達成最終協議，以 1.25 億歐元的企業價值收購 Tekfor 集團。我們對此次收購感到非常興奮，因為它提供了強大的協同潛力，使我們的地域和客戶組合多樣化，並增強了我們在電氣化組件方面的產品組合。這對我們來說是一次不錯的補充收購，我們預計該交易將在第二季度完成。

Additionally, we won a major program with Geely to supply independent front and rear drive axles for a premium vehicle. Our products will support both internal combustion as well as plug-in hybrid versions of this program. This win continues the theme of securing business for our traditional products, while we pivot to electrification.

此外，我們還贏得了與吉利的一項重大項目，為高檔汽車提供獨立的前後驅動橋。我們的產品將支持該程序的內燃和插電式混合動力版本。這一勝利延續了我們傳統產品確保業務的主題，同時我們轉向電氣化。

From an electrification standpoint, our P3 2-speed electric drive technology with 2-speed architecture in a drive axle has been nominated as a finalist for the 2022 PACE Award. This electric drive is on multiple variants for a premium European luxury automaker that is based in Germany. We're happy to say we have started production on this drive unit, and we are receiving interest on this specific technology from other automakers at this time.

從電氣化的角度來看，我們在驅動橋中採用 2 速架構的 P3 2 速電動驅動技術已被提名為 2022 PACE 獎的決賽選手。這種電動驅動器適用於一家總部位於德國的歐洲高檔豪華汽車製造商。我們很高興地說，我們已經開始生產這款驅動裝置，目前我們正收到其他汽車製造商對這項特定技術的興趣。

AAM has also been nominated as a PACEpilot award finalist for our next-generation 3-in-1 wheel-end electric drive unit. This assembly fully integrates the motor, gearbox and inverter into an elegant, compact and power-dense design. This technology platform can be used in wheel ends, EDUs, eBeam axles and other applications across multiple vehicle segments.

AAM 還被提名為我們下一代 3 合 1 輪端電動驅動裝置的 PACEpilot 獎決賽入圍者。該組件將電機、變速箱和逆變器完全集成到一個優雅、緊湊和功率密集的設計中。該技術平台可用於輪端、EDU、eBeam 車軸和其他跨多個車輛領域的應用。

Our electric drive technology leadership and innovation are well represented with our PACE award nominations as well as our past wins in these areas. This is also evident with our very constructive electrification dialogues with multiple global OEMs as manufacturers are focused on this very important transformation. Our state-of-the-art technology provides a formidable value proposition as OEMs tap to balance various capital needs. It's our goal to be a key supplier and partner when it comes to electric drive units, subassemblies and components. These are very exciting times for AAM as the electrification opportunities continue to grow and now represent over 70% of AAM's quoting activity.

我們的 PACE 獎提名以及我們過去在這些領域的勝利充分體現了我們在電力驅動技術方面的領先地位和創新。隨著製造商專注於這一非常重要的轉型，我們與多家全球 OEM 進行了非常建設性的電氣化對話，這一點也很明顯。我們最先進的技術提供了強大的價值主張，因為 OEM 可以利用平衡各種資本需求。我們的目標是成為電力驅動單元、子組件和組件的主要供應商和合作夥伴。對於 AAM 來說，這是非常激動人心的時刻，因為電氣化機會繼續增長，現在佔 AAM 報價活動的 70% 以上。

Finally, we're very happy to have earned the 2021 GM Overdrive Award. This is a great distinction as it is a reserve for suppliers who have displayed outstanding achievements across GM's global purchasing and supply chain organization's key priorities. AAM was recognized for our performance in the Launch Excellence category.

最後，我們很高興獲得 2021 年通用汽車超速駕駛獎。這是一個很大的區別，因為它是為在通用汽車全球採購和供應鏈組織的關鍵優先事項中表現出傑出成就的供應商準備的。 AAM 因其在 Launch Excellence 類別中的表現而獲得認可。

From an ESG perspective, we are also very pleased to announce that we recently published our 2021 sustainability report. Within this extended report, we outlined new goals and objectives for AAM. Our goals are to be net zero carbon emission by 2040, to purchase 100% renewable energy in the U.S. by 2025, and to achieve 0 waste to landfill status for all facilities by 2035. These are ambitious goals, but AAM desire to create a better tomorrow.

從 ESG 的角度來看，我們也很高興地宣布，我們最近發布了 2021 年可持續發展報告。在這份擴展報告中，我們概述了 AAM 的新目標。我們的目標是到 2040 年實現淨零碳排放，到 2025 年在美國購買 100% 的可再生能源，到 2035 年實現所有設施的零垃圾填埋狀態。這些都是雄心勃勃的目標，但 AAM 希望創造一個更好的明天。

Further, we also set our 2030 DEI demographic goals to increase the representation of women and minority team members at AAM. We believe diversity drives creativity, which leads to long-term value creation. We are deeply committed to profitably growing our business in a way that is both sustainable and socially responsible.

此外，我們還設定了 2030 年 DEI 人口統計目標，以增加女性和少數族裔團隊成員在 AAM 的代表性。我們相信多元化推動創造力，從而帶來長期價值創造。我們堅定地致力於以可持續和對社會負責的方式盈利地發展我們的業務。

Now let's talk about our guidance on Slide 7 of our slide deck. Given the challenges in the supply chain, the geopolitical uncertainty and production schedule volatility, we have updated our 2022 financial outlook. AAM is now targeting sales of $5.6 billion to $5.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $785 million to $830 million and adjusted free cash flow of approximately $300 million to $350 million.

現在讓我們談談我們對幻燈片 7 的指導。鑑於供應鏈中的挑戰、地緣政治的不確定性和生產計劃的波動，我們更新了 2022 年的財務展望。 AAM 現在的目標是銷售額為 56 億美元至 58 億美元，調整後的 EBITDA 約為 7.85 億美元至 8.3 億美元，調整後的自由現金流約為 3 億美元至 3.5 億美元。

From an end market perspective, we now anticipate North American production at approximately 14.3 million to 14.7 million units versus our prior outlook of 14.8 million to 15.2 million units. Even during these uncertain times, operation in our business is running well in the areas that we can control, and we believe we are well positioned nicely as the production environment improves driven by strong demand and inventory replenishment. That said, our aim is on the future, and we will continue to focus on generating strong free cash flow for the business, strengthening our balance sheet, securing our traditional business, advancing our electrification product portfolio and positioning AAM to profitably grow, especially in the area of electrification and mobility. That concludes my remarks. Let me now turn the call over to our Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Chris May. Chris?

從終端市場的角度來看，我們現在預計北美產量約為 1430 萬至 1470 萬輛，而我們之前的預測為 1480 萬至 1520 萬輛。即使在這些不確定的時期，我們的業務運營在我們可以控制的範圍內運行良好，我們相信隨著強勁需求和庫存補充推動生產環境改善，我們處於有利地位。也就是說，我們的目標是未來，我們將繼續專注於為業務創造強勁的自由現金流、加強我們的資產負債表、保護我們的傳統業務、推進我們的電氣化產品組合併將 AAM 定位為實現盈利增長，尤其是在電氣化和移動領域。我的發言到此結束。現在讓我把電話轉給我們的副總裁兼首席財務官克里斯·梅。克里斯？

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. I will cover the financial details of our first quarter results with you today. I will also refer to the earnings slide deck as part of my prepared comments. So let's begin with sales. In the first quarter of 2022, AAM sales were $1.44 billion compared to $1.43 billion in the first quarter of 2021. Slide 9 shows a walk of first quarter 2021 sales to the first quarter of 2022 sales. First, we account for the unfavorable impact of the semiconductor shortage, which we estimate to be approximately $31 million on a year-over-year basis for the first quarter of 2022. Annual contractual pricing was approximately $8 million and metal market pass-throughs and FX added approximately $39 million to sales.

謝謝你，大衛，大家早上好。今天，我將向您介紹我們第一季度業績的財務細節。作為我準備好的評論的一部分，我還將參考收益幻燈片。所以讓我們從銷售開始。 2022 年第一季度，AAM 銷售額為 14.4 億美元，而 2021 年第一季度為 14.3 億美元。幻燈片 9 顯示了從 2021 年第一季度到 2022 年第一季度的銷售額。首先，我們考慮了半導體短缺的不利影響，我們估計 2022 年第一季度的同比損失約為 3100 萬美元。年度合同定價約為 800 萬美元，金屬市場通過和FX 增加了大約 3900 萬美元的銷售額。

During the last several quarters, we have continued to see an increase in the primary index-related inputs to metal-based materials that we purchase. You may recall, we mitigate a portion of this risk with our customers by passing through the majority of index-related changes. The metal portion of this column reflects these elevated pass-throughs on a year-over-year basis.

在過去幾個季度中，我們繼續看到我們購買的金屬材料的主要指數相關投入有所增加。您可能還記得，我們通過傳遞與指數相關的大部分變化來減輕客戶的部分風險。該列的金屬部分反映了這些同比增長的傳遞率。

Now let's move on to profitability. Gross profit was $187 million or 13% of sales in the first quarter of 2022 compared to $227 million in the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted EBITDA was $196.1 million in the first quarter of 2022 or 13.7% of sales versus $262.9 million or 18.4% of sales last year.

現在讓我們繼續討論盈利能力。 2022 年第一季度毛利潤為 1.87 億美元，佔銷售額的 13%，而 2021 年第一季度為 2.27 億美元。2022 年第一季度調整後 EBITDA 為 1.961 億美元，佔銷售額的 13.7%，而 2.629 億美元，佔銷售額的 18.4%去年的銷售額。

Please refer to our adjusted EBITDA walk-down on Slide 10. During the quarter, semiconductor sales disruptions had a negative impact of approximately $7 million, annual contractual pricing had an impact of $8 million and net material freight utility inflation lowered EBITDA by approximately $28 million. Our R&D spending in the quarter increased $3 million year-over-year, driven by launches and electrification development. The performance in other column reflects an increase in project expense and some inefficiencies caused by volatility in production schedules versus a year ago. We continue to experience increases in index-related metal market costs and the retained portion impacting us this quarter was approximately $7 million.

請參閱我們在幻燈片 10 上調整後的 EBITDA 走訪。在本季度，半導體銷售中斷產生了約 700 萬美元的負面影響，年度合同定價產生了 800 萬美元的影響，淨材料運費公用事業通脹使 EBITDA 降低了約 2800 萬美元.在發射和電氣化發展的推動下，我們本季度的研發支出同比增加了 300 萬美元。其他欄中的表現反映了項目費用的增加以及與一年前相比生產計劃波動造成的一些低效率。我們繼續經歷與指數相關的金屬市場成本的增加，本季度影響我們的保留部分約為 700 萬美元。

Let me now cover SG&A. SG&A expense, which includes R&D, in the first quarter of 2022 was $86.1 million or 6% of sales. This compares to 6.3% of sales in the first quarter of 2021. AAM's R&D spending in the first quarter of 2022 was approximately $35 million compared to $32 million last year. We will continue to control our SG&A costs while investing in and increasing our R&D spend to advance our next-generation electric drive technology platforms.

現在讓我介紹一下SG&A。包括研發在內的 SG&A 費用在 2022 年第一季度為 8610 萬美元，佔銷售額的 6%。相比之下，2021 年第一季度佔銷售額的 6.3%。AAM 在 2022 年第一季度的研發支出約為 3500 萬美元，而去年為 3200 萬美元。我們將繼續控制我們的 SG&A 成本，同時投資和增加我們的研發支出，以推進我們的下一代電驅動技術平台。

Let's move on to interest and taxes. Net interest expense was $41.7 million in the first quarter of 2022 compared to $48.2 million in the first quarter of 2021. We continue to benefit from debt reduction and refinancing actions in the form of lower interest costs. In the first quarter of 2022, we recorded income tax expense of $3 million compared to an expense of $8.8 million in the first quarter of 2021. For 2022, we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 15% to 20%. We would expect cash taxes to be in the $50 million to $60 million range.

讓我們繼續討論利息和稅收。 2022 年第一季度的淨利息支出為 4170 萬美元，而 2021 年第一季度為 4820 萬美元。我們繼續以降低利息成本的形式從減債和再融資行動中受益。 2022 年第一季度，我們的所得稅費用為 300 萬美元，而 2021 年第一季度為 880 萬美元。我們預計 2022 年的有效稅率約為 15% 至 20%。我們預計現金稅將在 5000 萬至 6000 萬美元之間。

Taking all these sales and cost drivers into account, our GAAP net income was $1 million or $0.01 per share in the first quarter of 2022 compared to $38.6 million or $0.33 per share in the first quarter of 2021. Adjusted earnings per share, which excludes the impact of items noted in our earnings press release, was $0.19 per share in the first quarter of 2022 compared to $0.57 per share in the first quarter of 2021.

考慮到所有這些銷售和成本驅動因素，我們的 GAAP 淨收入在 2022 年第一季度為 100 萬美元或每股 0.01 美元，而 2021 年第一季度為 3860 萬美元或每股 0.33 美元。調整後的每股收益，不包括2022 年第一季度每股收益為 0.19 美元，而 2021 年第一季度為每股 0.57 美元。

Let's now move to cash flow and the balance sheet. Net cash provided by operating activities for the first quarter of 2022 was $68.5 million. Capital expenditures, net of proceeds from the sale of property, plant and equipment for the first quarter of 2022 were $24.4 million. Cash payments for restructuring and acquisition-related activity for the first quarter of 2022 were $8.4 million. The net cash outflow related to the recovery from the Malvern fire we experienced in September of 2020 was $1.4 million in the quarter. In total, we expect approximately $20 million to $30 million in restructuring and acquisition-related costs in 2022.

現在讓我們轉向現金流和資產負債表。 2022年第一季度經營活動提供的淨現金為6850萬美元。資本支出（扣除 2022 年第一季度出售物業、廠房和設備的收益）為 2440 萬美元。 2022 年第一季度重組和收購相關活動的現金支付為 840 萬美元。本季度與我們在 2020 年 9 月經歷的馬爾文大火恢復相關的淨現金流出為 140 萬美元。總體而言，我們預計 2022 年重組和收購相關成本約為 2000 萬至 3000 萬美元。

Reflecting the impact of this activity, AAM generated adjusted free cash flow of $54 million in the first quarter of 2022. From a debt leverage perspective, we ended the quarter with net debt of $2.6 billion and LTM-adjusted EBITDA of $767 million, calculating a net leverage ratio of 3.3x at March 31. We expect to continue to strengthen AAM's balance sheet by reducing our gross debt and lowering future interest payments. In the first quarter of 2022, we conducted significant refinancing to further reduce interest costs and extend maturities. We also continue with our debt reduction initiatives by paying down $25 million of our Term Loan B in the quarter.

反映這一活動的影響，AAM 在 2022 年第一季度產生了 5400 萬美元的調整後自由現金流。從債務槓桿的角度來看，我們在本季度末的淨債務為 26 億美元，LTM 調整後 EBITDA 為 7.67 億美元，計算出3 月 31 日的淨槓桿率為 3.3 倍。我們預計將通過減少總債務和降低未來利息支付來繼續加強 AAM 的資產負債表。 2022 年第一季度，我們進行了大量再融資，以進一步降低利息成本並延長期限。我們還通過在本季度償還 2500 萬美元的定期貸款 B 來繼續我們的減債計劃。

Before we move on to the Q&A portion of the call, let me close my comments with some thoughts on our revised 2022 financial outlook. As you can see from our press release, we have updated our outlook to $5.6 billion to $5.8 billion of sales, $785 million to $830 million of adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow of $300 million to $350 million. We've updated our outlook based on the latest and best information we have regarding customer production schedules and operating environment, including inflation headwinds and projected recoveries. Our North American production assumption for 2022 is 14.3 million to 14.7 million units, and we expect the cadence of sales and related profitability to align with industry estimates of a stronger second half volume timing versus the first half of the year. We continue to assume our customers will prioritize building full-size pickups and SUVs, but volatility remains across the entire spectrum of activities in our industry.

在我們繼續電話的問答部分之前，讓我以對我們修訂後的 2022 年財務前景的一些想法來結束我的評論。正如您從我們的新聞稿中看到的那樣，我們已將我們的展望更新為 56 億美元至 58 億美元的銷售額、7.85 億美元至 8.3 億美元的調整後 EBITDA 和 3 億美元至 3.5 億美元的調整後自由現金流。我們根據我們掌握的有關客戶生產計劃和運營環境的最新和最佳信息更新了我們的展望，包括通脹逆風和預計的複蘇。我們對 2022 年的北美產量假設為 1430 萬至 1470 萬輛，我們預計銷售和相關盈利能力的節奏將與行業估計的下半年銷量時間比上半年更強的預測保持一致。我們繼續假設我們的客戶將優先生產全尺寸皮卡和 SUV，但我們行業的整個活動範圍仍然存在波動。

That said, we will focus on what we can control, which are cost discipline, optimizing our operations, delivering high-quality products on time and maximizing our cash flow conversion. We will navigate through the near-term challenges and also in the meantime, continue to provide compelling high-value products and customer diversification as evidenced by the new Geely business award we announced today. We continue to invest in electrification and bolt-on high-value acquisitions like Tekfor to position us for future profitable growth that is aligned with our strengths and capital allocation priorities.

也就是說，我們將專注於我們可以控制的事情，即成本紀律、優化我們的運營、按時交付高質量的產品以及最大化我們的現金流轉換。我們將應對近期挑戰，同時繼續提供引人注目的高價值產品和客戶多元化，我們今天宣布的新吉利商業獎就是證明。我們將繼續投資於電氣化和像 Tekfor 這樣的高價值收購，以使我們能夠實現與我們的優勢和資本配置優先事項相一致的未來盈利增長。

And lastly, we will continue to develop and showcase highly advanced electric drive units, subassemblies and components. Those efforts were recently recognized as PACE Award finalist as David mentioned in his remarks. Thank you for your time today and your participation on the call. I'm going to stop here and turn the call back over to David so we can start the Q&A.

最後，我們將繼續開發和展示高度先進的電力驅動單元、子組件和組件。正如大衛在講話中提到的那樣，這些努力最近被公認為 PACE 獎決賽選手。感謝您今天抽出寶貴時間參加電話會議。我要在這裡停下來，把電話轉給大衛，這樣我們就可以開始問答了。

Thank you, Chris and David. We have reserved some time to take questions. I would ask that you please limit your questions to no more than 2. So at this time, please feel free to proceed with any questions you may have.

謝謝你，克里斯和大衛。我們預留了一些時間來回答問題。我想請您將您的問題限制在不超過 2 個。因此，此時，請隨時繼續處理您可能遇到的任何問題。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question today comes from John Murphy from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 John Murphy。

Thanks for the details this morning. If we look at Slide 10 and think about your comments about these discussions you're having with your automaker customers is potentially getting some recoveries or greater recoveries. I'm just curious where the greatest opportunity is. Because I mean you traditionally have metals markets here pretty good pass-through through indexing and other agreements. So I mean, on the raw side, you're not to expose. So it's sort of the untraditional costs or the costs that aren't typically passed through it, I guess, you might be discussing with them.

感謝您今天早上提供的詳細信息。如果我們查看幻燈片 10 並考慮您對與汽車製造商客戶進行的這些討論的評論，可能會獲得一些或更大的恢復。我只是好奇最大的機會在哪裡。因為我的意思是你傳統上在這裡有金屬市場非常好的通過索引和其他協議傳遞。所以我的意思是，在原始方面，你不要暴露。所以這是一種非傳統成本或通常不會通過它傳遞的成本，我猜，你可能正在與他們討論。

So as we look at this, I mean, it's really that $28 million that would be sort of a new area of discussion or focus. I'm just curious what the opportunity set is there and how far along the discussions and what do you think the potential for success is?

所以當我們看到這個時，我的意思是，這確實是 2800 萬美元，這將是一個新的討論或焦點領域。我只是好奇那裡的機會是什麼，討論的進展如何，你認為成功的潛力是什麼？

Yes, John, just maybe -- this is Chris. Just to maybe frame up that $28 million, about 2/3 of that relates to net material costs that we've increased in terms of inflation. And we reset a lot of the purchasing prices with our supply base on the 1st of January. The balance of that or the remaining 1/3 is about -- consider that freight and utility related.

是的，約翰，也許——這是克里斯。只是為了湊齊這 2800 萬美元，其中大約 2/3 與我們因通貨膨脹而增加的淨材料成本有關。我們在 1 月 1 日用我們的供應基地重新設置了很多采購價格。剩下的 1/3 的餘額大約是 - 考慮到運費和公用事業相關。

So in terms of -- look, we're addressing these issues with our customers. As you know, it's a very sensitive topic with our customers. We've continued to make good progress with them. We benefited from some progress in the first quarter, and I would expect progress in these discussions to receive ultimately a reasonable recovery on some of these costs through the course of the second quarter and early part of the third quarter.

所以就 - 看，我們正在與我們的客戶一起解決這些問題。如您所知，這對我們的客戶來說是一個非常敏感的話題。我們繼續與他們取得良好進展。我們從第一季度的一些進展中受益，我預計這些討論的進展最終將在第二季度和第三季度初的部分成本中得到合理的恢復。

Okay. But -- I'm sorry, I mean, usually, there's kind of a takeaway of the stuff. So do you think there's a reasonable portion of the $20 million is going to be recovered in the coming second and third quarter. I'm sorry, is that what you said, Chris?

好的。但是——我很抱歉，我的意思是，通常情況下，這些東西都有點外賣。那麼，您認為在接下來的第二和第三季度中，2000 萬美元中有相當一部分會被收回。對不起，克里斯，你是這麼說的嗎？

Yes. On a prospective basis. As we have reset a lot of our pricing with our supply base, we are in with our customers having active discussions on compensation related to some of those increases that we've already begun to experience here in the first quarter.

是的。在前瞻性的基礎上。由於我們已經通過我們的供應基礎重新設置了很多定價，我們正在與我們的客戶就與我們在第一季度已經開始在這裡經歷的一些增長相關的薪酬進行積極討論。

Okay. That's encouraging. And then just a second question on Slide 4. I mean, obviously, you could argue that the Geely contract is kind of outsourcing of traditional products, but it kind of in that theme. So just curious, as you think about sort of these new cos that you're winning business with how much opportunity there is there for some traditional products? And maybe even in the incumbents that there might be some level of outsourcing. Maybe if you could juxtapose that opportunity set on traditional products with your view of making acquisitions for technology like Tekfor integrating to your traditional product?

好的。這是令人鼓舞的。然後只是關於幻燈片 4 的第二個問題。我的意思是，很明顯，你可以爭辯說吉利合同是一種傳統產品的外包，但它有點像這個主題。所以只是好奇，當您考慮這些新的因素時，您正在贏得業務，一些傳統產品有多少機會？甚至可能在現有企業中也可能存在某種程度的外包。如果您可以將傳統產品上的機會與您將收購 Tekfor 等技術整合到您的傳統產品中的觀點並列起來？

Yes, John, this is David. First and foremost, our objective was to try to secure our next-generation business on our traditional or conventional product. We've made tremendous progress on that as we've announced previously in earlier calls. So we feel real good about the cash generation that we're going to be able to realize going forward in the future for an extended period of time.

是的，約翰，這是大衛。首先，我們的目標是嘗試在我們的傳統或傳統產品上確保我們的下一代業務。正如我們之前在之前的電話會議中宣布的那樣，我們在這方面取得了巨大進展。因此，我們對未來很長一段時間內將能夠實現的現金產生感覺非常好。

At the same time, there are other opportunities that are presenting themselves, some new program opportunities as well as some potential outsourcing opportunities that fit right into our wheelhouse and on existing equipment. So we're very pleased with the opportunity. Geely just happens to be one of the latest ones. At the same time, it does have a hybrid application associated with that. So it depends on which way you want to look at that electrification versus conventional, but we're happy to take it either way.

與此同時，還有其他機會正在出現，一些新的計劃機會以及一些適合我們駕駛室和現有設備的潛在外包機會。所以我們對這個機會感到非常高興。吉利恰好是最新的之一。同時，它確實有一個與之相關的混合應用程序。因此，這取決於您希望以哪種方式看待電氣化與傳統，但我們很高興採取任何一種方式。

And then at the same time, we do see a significant amount of electrification opportunities presenting themselves. And like we said, each quarter, that just continues to grow and our backlog that we're quoting or should I say, quoting opportunities and now represents over 70% of the business there. So we're going to continue to grow in our conventional products. We're going to continue to grow in electrification, especially electrification because it makes up the majority of what we're quoting today. But we also do think there'll be other opportunities that will present themselves as OEMs evaluate their strategies in the future and we're here to help.

與此同時，我們確實看到了大量的電氣化機會出現。就像我們說的那樣，每個季度都在繼續增長，我們引用的積壓訂單或者我應該說，引用機會，現在佔那裡業務的 70% 以上。因此，我們將繼續發展我們的傳統產品。我們將繼續在電氣化方面發展，尤其是電氣化，因為它構成了我們今天引用的大部分內容。但我們也確實認為，隨著原始設備製造商在未來評估他們的戰略，還會有其他機會出現，我們隨時為您提供幫助。

Our next question comes from Ryan Brinkman from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Ryan Brinkman。

As we go about -- which is on Tekfor. As we go about modeling that acquisition, what can you tell us at this stage about the margin profile of that business? And it was announced in the press release highlighting the pivot toward electrification. I understand it broadens your electrification product portfolio, but is there anything you can say about like what percentage of Tekfor's revenue or maybe backlog stems from electrified vehicles?

在我們進行的過程中——在 Tekfor 上。在我們對收購進行建模時，您能在這個階段告訴我們該業務的利潤率概況嗎？它在新聞稿中宣布，突出了電氣化的重心。我知道它擴大了您的電氣化產品組合，但是您有什麼可以說的，比如 Tekfor 的收入中有多少百分比或積壓來自電動汽車？

Yes. Ryan, this is Chris. We did disclose in our press release. Just in terms of framing the size of the Tekfor acquisition from a revenue perspective. Last year's revenues for Tekfor were approximately EUR 285 million. And we're looking to close on that here in the second quarter. We have not disclosed specific margin profile associated with that. But I would think as one of the crux of the key elements of this transaction is, this is a high synergy deal for us.

是的。瑞恩，這是克里斯。我們確實在我們的新聞稿中披露過。就從收入的角度來看 Tekfor 收購的規模而言。 Tekfor 去年的收入約為 2.85 億歐元。我們希望在第二季度結束這一點。我們尚未披露與此相關的具體保證金情況。但我認為，這項交易的關鍵要素之一是，這對我們來說是一筆高協同效應的交易。

By 2023 estimates, think of the value of that purchase price around 3x our synergized EBITDA. So that will give you a little bit of a framework of how we think about this business transforming over the next 18 to 24 months. In terms of the revenue profile, we project by 2025, approximately 40% of the revenue for our Tekfor acquisition will either be better or, I would call propulsion agnostic, meaning it serves both ICE vehicles and electric vehicles. So this is one of the more attractive elements of this transaction. It brings us some new components on our metal form side of the house to support the [bet] business, but also a lot that's fairly agnostic in terms of propulsion. So again, the key element of our strategy for that acquisition. Hopefully, that helps.

到 2023 年估計，購買價格的價值約為我們協同 EBITDA 的 3 倍。因此，這將為您提供一些關於我們如何看待未來 18 到 24 個月內這項業務轉型的框架。就收入狀況而言，我們預計到 2025 年，我們收購 Tekfor 的大約 40% 的收入要么會更好，要么我稱之為推進不可知論，這意味著它同時服務於內燃機汽車和電動汽車。因此，這是此次交易中更具吸引力的元素之一。它為我們在房屋的金屬形式一側帶來了一些新組件，以支持 [bet] 業務，但也有很多在推進方面相當不可知。再說一次，我們此次收購戰略的關鍵要素。希望這會有所幫助。

Okay. Yes, it does. And then just finally, still on Tekfor. I recall when you purchased MPG, that they were a supplier to you also. And so some of those sales became like intercompany transactions and with the benefit in the case of those sales to EBITDA instead of -- or EBITDA margin instead of to revenue. And I was just looking on the Tekfor website and I saw they had a press release about how they were an American Axle supplier of the year, a few years ago in Brazil or whatnot. So I just wanted to get a sense to, and maybe I missed it, but what percentage of Tekfor's revenue was coming from American Axle as we sort of think about the modeling invitations of that too?

好的。是的，它確實。最後，還是在 Tekfor 上。我記得當你購買 MPG 時，他們也是你的供應商。因此，其中一些銷售變得像公司間交易，並且在這些銷售中受益於 EBITDA 而不是 - 或 EBITDA 利潤率而不是收入。我只是在 Tekfor 網站上查看，我看到他們發布了一份新聞稿，說明他們是如何成為年度美國車橋供應商的，幾年前在巴西或其他地方。所以我只是想了解一下，也許我錯過了，但是當我們考慮建模邀請時，Tekfor 的收入中有多少百分比來自 American Axle？

Yes, Ryan, this is David. A small percentage of their revenue comes from American Axle, although they are a very good supplier to us out of our Brazilian operations. As Chris indicated here, we're going to continue to use our operational excellence and really focus on the synergistic opportunities to drive margin enhancement into the business.

是的，瑞恩，這是大衛。他們的一小部分收入來自 American Axle，儘管他們是我們巴西業務中非常好的供應商。正如克里斯在此指出的那樣，我們將繼續利用我們的卓越運營，並真正專注於協同機會來推動業務利潤率的提高。

Clearly, we'll look at plant loading initiatives. We'll look at buying power initiatives and other initiatives to achieve those synergies. But we're very excited about this acquisition. And again, it just shows that we can continue to do tactical acquisitions while growing our business and pivoting the business to supporting electrification in the future.

顯然，我們將研究工廠裝載計劃。我們將研究購買力舉措和其他舉措以實現這些協同效應。但我們對這次收購感到非常興奮。再一次，它只是表明我們可以繼續進行戰術性收購，同時發展我們的業務並將業務轉向支持未來的電氣化。

And our next question comes from Joe Spak from RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joe Spak。

I was wondering if can you just help us a little bit on the updated guide versus prior. I think previously, you were looking for metal markets to be $150 million to $200 million plus and, call it, about a $30 million negative on EBITDA. What's the updated contribution to the new guidance from that on both the top line and on EBITDA?

我想知道您是否可以在更新的指南與之前的指南中幫助我們一點。我認為以前，您正在尋找 1.5 億至 2 億美元以上的金屬市場，並且稱其為 EBITDA 約 3000 萬美元的負數。對收入和 EBITDA 的新指引有何更新貢獻？

Yes. From a metal market pass-through perspective, Joe, that would still remain very similar. And you can see that run rate flowing through our first quarter. So from a metal perspective, not a lot different from where our guide was 90 days ago. If you think about why the top end of our range from our revenue is down, I think holistically, in particular, the North American markets are down about 3% versus our previous volume estimates.

是的。從金屬市場傳遞的角度來看，喬，這仍然非常相似。您可以看到我們第一季度的運行率。因此，從金屬的角度來看，與 90 天前我們的指南沒有太大不同。如果您考慮為什麼我們的收入範圍的高端下降，我認為整體而言，特別是北美市場與我們之前的銷量估計相比下降了約 3%。

Of course, half our business is full-size truck related. To that, our view has been very stable over the last 90 days in terms of volume projections. So really, it's the balance of our business and metal is relatively very similar to where we were 90 days ago.

當然，我們一半的業務與全尺寸卡車有關。對此，我們對過去 90 天的交易量預測非常穩定。所以真的，這是我們業務的平衡，金屬與我們 90 天前的情況相對非常相似。

Okay. So the reduction is pretty much volume based. I guess if metal markets -- this is a dangerous statement, but if they actually hold from spot, is there still an impact into '23? Or would '23 be more neutral on both accounts?

好的。所以減少幾乎是基於數量的。我想如果金屬市場——這是一個危險的說法，但如果他們真的從現貨上持有，對 23 年還有影響嗎？或者'23 在這兩個賬戶上會更加中立嗎？

If metal holds at these levels, and as you know, Joe, they reset every 30 days, we saw metal start to trail down in the first quarter, and then they spiked up in May, for example, it's obviously very difficult to predict. But if they hold at these levels for the bulk of this year, on a year-over-year basis, stepping into '23, it would be relatively neutral. I mean there's a lot that goes into it, but the macro is how you should think about it.

如果金屬保持在這些水平，正如你所知，喬，它們每 30 天重置一次，我們看到金屬在第一季度開始下跌，然後在 5 月飆升，這顯然很難預測。但是，如果他們在今年的大部分時間裡保持在這些水平，同比增長，進入 23 世紀，那將是相對中性的。我的意思是其中有很多內容，但宏觀是你應該如何思考它。

Yes. Perfect. And then just finally, David, maybe this even sort of ties in a little bit to some of your sustainability comments. I guess just functionally, when you are selling a, let's call it a 3 in 1 or an electric drive unit that has a motor, right? You're not -- I think you're not doing the motors, but the motors clearly have some sensitive commodities in there. One, have you done an audit of your suppliers in terms of sort of making sure there's sufficient supply of rare earths or whatnot to sort of meet your goals?

是的。完美的。最後，大衛，也許這與你的一些可持續發展評論有一點聯繫。我想只是在功能上，當您銷售時，我們將其稱為 3 合 1 或帶有電機的電動驅動裝置，對嗎？你不是——我認為你不是在做電機，但電機裡顯然有一些敏感的商品。一，您是否對您的供應商進行了審核，以確保有足夠的稀土供應或其他類似的東西來滿足您的目標？

And then I get -- and as well as, I guess, for sustainability purposes they're coming from the right place. And b, when there is a -- if and when there is a change in that price, just sort of given what we've seen in some other commodity release. Who's like -- who pays for that increase? Is that something you're going to have to absorb as you sort of pay for the motor and then sort of pass that on through to the customer?

然後我得到 - 而且，我猜，出於可持續發展的目的，它們來自正確的地方。 b，當有 - 如果該價格發生變化時，只是考慮到我們在其他一些商品發布中看到的情況。誰像 - 誰為這種增長買單？當您為電機支付費用然後將其傳遞給客戶時，您將不得不吸收這些東西嗎？

A couple of questions within your questions, so let me just kind of work my way through this a little bit here is. Clearly, what we're going to do is from a motor standpoint, and inverter standpoint, we are buying some of those today. We have agreements in place with those customers or those suppliers today and obviously have agreements in place with our customers. When it comes to the rare earth metals, we have to, not only on semiconductors, but also all these other components, we need to understand where our supply base is getting their materials from, have transparency to that, understand what risk it may have, ask our suppliers to provide the robust supply chain or how they're going to protect our continuity of supply.

您的問題中有幾個問題，所以讓我在這裡稍微解決一下。顯然，我們要做的是從電機和逆變器的角度來看，我們今天要購買其中的一些。我們今天與這些客戶或供應商簽訂了協議，並且顯然與我們的客戶簽訂了協議。談到稀土金屬，我們不僅要了解半導體，還要了解所有其他組件，我們需要了解我們的供應基地從哪裡獲得材料，對此保持透明度，了解它可能存在的風險，請我們的供應商提供強大的供應鍊或他們將如何保護我們的供應連續性。

Obviously, that's become a huge issue in the last 18 months as it relates to the supply chain visibility and transparency. So there's a lot taking place already that the OEMs are asking for as well as the Tier 1s are asking for to get deeper into the tiers, including the raw material sources. Also, we're looking at alternatives to those rare earth metals as far as advancements in technologies that make us less dependent on those rare metals and the countries that provide those rare earth metals.

顯然，這在過去 18 個月中已成為一個大問題，因為它關係到供應鏈的可見性和透明度。因此，原始設備製造商（OEM）和一級供應商（Tier 1）都要求更深入地了解這些層級，包括原材料來源，這已經發生了很多事情。此外，我們正在尋找這些稀土金屬的替代品，以使我們減少對這些稀土金屬和提供這些稀土金屬的國家的依賴的技術進步。

And on the material increase side of things, again, that's a negotiation case by case with our customers. But clearly, we're not going to absorb all those in the future. We've got to be able to have the ability to pass that -- those adjustments on to our customer base. But again, that's an individual negotiation.

在物質增加方面，再次，這是與我們的客戶逐案談判。但很明顯，我們將來不會吸收所有這些。我們必須能夠將這些調整傳遞給我們的客戶群。但同樣，這是一個單獨的談判。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Dan Levy from Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Dan Levy。

I'm sorry if I missed it earlier, I think you may have mentioned it, but just an update on your cost guidance, which was $40 million initially. And maybe you could just talk broadly about the types of costs that you're seeing, be it labor, freight. We know that you're very energy intense in your operations. And what piece of that might be sticky versus something that's more temporary?

很抱歉，如果我早些時候錯過了它，我想你可能已經提到它，但只是對你的成本指導的更新，最初是 4000 萬美元。也許您可以廣泛談論您所看到的成本類型，無論是勞動力還是運費。我們知道您在運營中非常精力充沛。與更臨時的東西相比，哪一部分可能是粘性的？

Dan, this is Chris. Yes, the guidance that we released in our previous earnings call did show a net $40 million increase for purchased materials. Obviously, with our updated guidance, you see here today that has significantly increased in terms of the net cost associated with that. And as we mentioned on one of the previous questions, we're still having active negotiations with our customers to mitigate some of that increase. But of course, still work to do. But that's, of course, why we provide a range from an EBITDA perspective.

丹，這是克里斯。是的，我們在之前的財報電話會議中發布的指導確實顯示採購材料淨增加了 4000 萬美元。顯然，根據我們更新的指導，您今天在這裡看到與此相關的淨成本顯著增加。正如我們在之前的一個問題中提到的那樣，我們仍在與客戶進行積極的談判，以減輕部分增長。但是，當然，還有工作要做。但這當然是我們從 EBITDA 角度提供範圍的原因。

The second half of your question relates along the lines of stickiness. Obviously, the negotiated elements of items that we're working with our customers on that kind of mutes that from a stickiness perspective in terms of impact to us. Freight. Obviously, will ebb and flow a little bit with market conditions, and we saw increases in freight here in the first quarter. We saw some of that in the back half of last year. And we also have a fair amount of productivity initiatives in terms of that cost area for us that can help mitigate some of that.

您問題的後半部分與粘性有關。顯然，從粘性的角度來看，我們正在與客戶合作的項目的談判元素對我們的影響減弱了。貨運。顯然，隨著市場狀況的變化，會出現一些波動，我們看到第一季度這裡的貨運量有所增加。我們在去年下半年看到了其中的一些。而且我們在該成本領域方面也有相當數量的生產力計劃，可以幫助減輕其中的一些。

But again, I think of some of the core elements of the company trying to regionalize production to support customers also tries to -- allows us to protect ourselves somewhat from that. But that's obviously can ebb and flow over time.

但同樣，我認為公司試圖將生產區域化以支持客戶的一些核心要素也試圖讓我們在某種程度上保護自己免受這種影響。但這顯然會隨著時間的推移而起起落落。

And then, of course, the other largest element that we're experiencing would be utilities and then labor. Utilities, again, I would suspect that's going to ebb and flow some. Obviously, we're at a peak for a variety of different reasons on the macro environment sector. So I would expect that to trend in different directions based on the macro. And from a labor perspective, we, as is pretty much everyone else inside of this industry and almost every other industry are facing labor inflation pressures, and I would expect those to be in terms of cost, sticky, but the focus is leveraging our operating system to work on efficiencies and mitigate that cost over time through, I would call it, old-fashioned productivity, automation and things of that nature to kind of keep some of that inflation at bay over an extended period of time. That's how I think about our different cost elements. Hopefully, that answers your question.

然後，當然，我們正在經歷的另一個最大的因素是公用事業，然後是勞動力。公用事業，再次，我懷疑這會潮起潮落。顯然，由於各種不同的原因，我們在宏觀環境領域處於頂峰。所以我希望它會根據宏觀走向不同的方向。從勞動力的角度來看，我們和這個行業內的幾乎所有其他人以及幾乎所有其他行業都面臨著勞動力通脹壓力，我預計這些壓力會在成本方面具有粘性，但重點是利用我們的運營系統來提高效率並隨著時間的推移降低成本，我會稱之為老式的生產力，自動化和類似性質的東西，可以在很長一段時間內保持一些通貨膨脹。這就是我對我們不同成本要素的看法。希望這能回答你的問題。

Great. And even if some of this cost is sticky, if we just assume that inflation is what it is. There's no reason to believe that your incremental margins on any volume recovery wouldn't be similar to what they've been in the past, call it, that 25% plus contribution margin, correct?

偉大的。即使其中一些成本是粘性的，如果我們只是假設通貨膨脹就是這樣。沒有理由相信您在任何數量恢復上的增量利潤都不會與過去相似，稱之為 25% 的貢獻邊際，對嗎？

When you think just pure impact of volume changes, you are correct.

當您認為只是單純的音量變化影響時，您是正確的。

Okay. Great. And then just as a second question, given it's a more uncertain environment and the goal of -- for the time line of reaching 2x net debt to EBITDA is probably pushed out somewhat given the macro volatility. How does the balance sheet -- how does the playbook change for any balance sheet actions? Clearly, you just did an acquisition. So I think that shows some confidence. But how do things change with an elongated time line to reaching 2x net debt to EBITDA?

好的。偉大的。然後作為第二個問題，鑑於這是一個更加不確定的環境和目標 - 考慮到宏觀波動，達到 EBITDA 淨債務 2 倍的時間線可能會在一定程度上被推遲。資產負債表如何 - 任何資產負債表行動的劇本如何變化？顯然，您剛剛進行了一次收購。所以我認為這表明了一些信心。但是，隨著時間線的延長，達到 EBITDA 的 2 倍淨債務，情況會如何變化？

Yes. From a balance sheet perspective, look, I think our operations have been set up, and we continue to operate them to generate strong cash flow. We continue to take action on the gross debt side of our balance sheet. We paid additional debt down in the first quarter of this year in addition to announcing our Tekfor acquisition.

是的。從資產負債表的角度來看，我認為我們的業務已經建立，我們將繼續運營它們以產生強勁的現金流。我們繼續在資產負債表的總債務方面採取行動。除了宣布收購 Tekfor 之外，我們在今年第一季度還清了額外的債務。

So we'll just continue to strengthen the balance sheet from a gross debt perspective, meaning reducing it. The net leverage obviously will come when it comes. We're going to continue to focus on reducing that over time. We're highly confident in our ability to generate cash flow and to work our capital allocation playbook appropriately.

因此，我們將繼續從總債務的角度加強資產負債表，這意味著減少它。淨槓桿顯然會在它到來時到來。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續專注於減少這種情況。我們對我們產生現金流和適當地運用我們的資本分配劇本的能力充滿信心。

Dan, this is David. We've been very consistent in regards to our capital allocation is that we're going to support the organic growth of book business that we have, which is over $700 million over the next 3 years as we talked. We're going to continue to pay down debt. We've demonstrated that every quarter, including last quarter. And we're also going to focus on tactical acquisitions that are within our capital structure that make good sense for our business, which is also evident with what we just did with Tekfor. So we're going to do it all in balance. One -- quarter-by-quarter, it may vary between those 3 items, but those 3 items are the main direction that we provide our organization as it relates to capital allocations.

丹，這是大衛。我們在資本分配方面一直非常一致，我們將支持我們擁有的圖書業務的有機增長，正如我們所說的，未來 3 年將超過 7 億美元。我們將繼續償還債務。我們已經證明了每個季度，包括上一季度。而且我們還將專注於我們資本結構內對我們的業務有意義的戰術收購，這在我們剛剛對 Tekfor 所做的事情中也很明顯。所以我們要平衡地做這一切。一個 - 每季度，這三個項目之間可能會有所不同，但這三個項目是我們為我們的組織提供的主要方向，因為它與資本分配有關。

And ladies and gentlemen, there are no further questions at this time, and I'd like to turn the floor back over to Mr. Lim.

女士們，先生們，目前沒有其他問題，我想把發言權轉回給 Lim 先生。

Great. We thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM. We certainly look forward to talking with you in the future. Thank you.

偉大的。我們感謝所有參與此次電話會議的人，並感謝您對 AAM 的興趣。我們當然期待在未來與您交談。謝謝你。

And ladies and gentlemen, with that, we'll conclude today's presentation. We do thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，到此，我們將結束今天的演講。我們非常感謝您的加入。您現在可以斷開線路。