日月光投資控股 (ASX) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello. I am Ken Hsiang, the Head of Investor Relations for ASE Technology Holdings. Welcome to our Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Release. Thank you for attending our conference call today. Please refer to our Safe Harbor notice on Page 2. All participants consent to having their voices and questions broadcast via participation in this event. If participants do not consent, please disconnect at this time.

你好。我是 ASE Technology Holdings 投資者關係主管 Ken Hsiang。歡迎來到我們的 2022 年第三季度收益發布。感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。請參閱我們在第 2 頁上的安全港通知。所有參與者都同意通過參與本次活動來廣播他們的聲音和問題。如果參與者不同意，請在此時斷開連接。

I would like to remind everyone that the presentation that follows may contain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a high degree of risk, and our actual results may differ materially. For the purposes of this presentation, our dollar figures are generally stated in New Taiwan dollars, unless otherwise indicated. As a Taiwan-based company, our financials are presented in accordance with Taiwan IFRS. Results presented using Taiwan IFRS may differ materially from results using other accounting standards, including those presented by our subsidiary using Chinese GAAP. Intercompany transactions between our ATM and EMS businesses have been eliminated during consolidation, but appear within business unit results.

我想提醒大家，下面的演示文稿可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在高度風險，我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。就本報告而言，除非另有說明，否則我們的美元數字通常以新台幣表示。作為一家台灣公司，我們的財務按照台灣國際財務報告準則呈報。使用台灣 IFRS 呈現的結果可能與使用其他會計準則的結果存在重大差異，包括我們的子公司使用中國公認會計準則呈現的結果。我們的 ATM 和 EMS 業務之間的公司間交易在合併期間已被消除，但出現在業務部門結果中。

For today's call, I am joined by Joseph Tung, our CFO. During the call, I will go over our financial results and outlook, Joseph will be available to answer questions during the Q&A session that follows. Also as a reminder, we disposed off ASC Inc.'s China sites at the end of 2021. For our financial results presented here, in addition to our legal entity results, we have included information on a pro forma basis or as if the disposition of ASE Inc.'s China sites had already occurred. We believe the pro forma results give additional meaningful information, which would assist in providing comparability of our financial results. For the purposes of this presentation, we will generally discuss our full company and ATM third quarter results sequentially compared with second quarter legal entity results, and year-over-year compared with pro forma third quarter 2021.

對於今天的電話會議，我們的首席財務官 Joseph Tung 加入了我的行列。在電話會議期間，我將回顧我們的財務業績和展望，約瑟夫將在隨後的問答環節中回答問題。另外提醒一下，我們在 2021 年底出售了 ASC Inc. 在中國的工廠。對於我們在此展示的財務業績，除了我們的法人實體業績外，我們還包含了備考信息或如同處置的信息ASE Inc. 的中國站點已經發生。我們相信備考結果提供了額外的有意義的信息，這將有助於提供我們財務結果的可比性。出於本演示文稿的目的，我們將按順序討論我們的完整公司和 ATM 第三季度業績與第二季度法人實體業績相比，以及與 2021 年第三季度備考相比的同比。

Please turn to Page 3, where you will find our third quarter consolidated results with legal entity and pro forma basis comparisons. For the third quarter, we recorded fully diluted EPS of NT$3.92 and basic EPS of NT$4.03. Consolidated net revenue increased 18% sequentially and 25% year-over-year. We had a gross profit of NT$38 billion with a gross margin of 20.1%. Our gross margin declined by 1.3 percentage points sequentially and 0.3 percentage points year-over-year. The sequential and annual margin decreases were primarily attributable to higher EMS business mix offset in part by favorable currency conditions within our ATM and EMS businesses.

請轉到第 3 頁，您將在其中找到我們與法人實體和備考基礎比較的第三季度綜合結果。第三季度，我們錄得全麵攤薄每股收益新台幣 3.92 元和基本每股收益新台幣 4.03 元。綜合淨收入環比增長 18%，同比增長 25%。我們的毛利為新台幣 380 億元，毛利率為 20.1%。我們的毛利率環比下降 1.3 個百分點，同比下降 0.3 個百分點。連續和年度利潤率下降主要是由於我們的 ATM 和 EMS 業務內有利的貨幣條件部分抵消了更高的 EMS 業務組合。

Our operating expenses increased sequentially by NT$0.5 billion during the third quarter to NT$14.3 billion, primarily as a result of higher R&D expenses with new product introductions or NPIs, and higher profit-sharing expenses during the quarter. On a year-over-year basis, our operating expenses increased by NT$1.9 billion, mainly from the increase of scale in both of our ATM and EMS businesses. Our operating expense percentage declined sequentially to 7.6%. On an annual basis, our operating expense percentage declined 1 percentage point from 8.6%. Improvements in operating expense percentage were achieved as a result of operating leverage created.

第三季度我們的營業費用環比增加 5 億新台幣至 143 億新台幣，主要是由於新產品引入或 NPI 的研發費用增加，以及本季度利潤分享費用增加。營業費用同比增加新台幣19億元，主要來自ATM和EMS業務規模的擴大。我們的營業費用百分比連續下降至 7.6%。按年度計算，我們的營業費用百分比從 8.6% 下降了 1 個百分點。由於創造了經營槓桿，經營費用百分比有所提高。

Operating profit was NT$23.7 billion, up NT$3.1 billion sequentially and NT$5.3 billion year-over-year. Operating margin was 12.6%, declining 0.2 percentage points sequentially. Operating margin increased 0.3 percentage points on an annual basis as a result of higher operating leverage. During the quarter, we had a NT$0.1 billion net non-operating loss. This amount included gain from our net foreign exchange hedging activities offset in full by net interest expense of NT$1 billion. Interest expense is higher as a result of higher interest rates on our floating rate debt and higher borrowing after our dividend distribution during the quarter. Tax expense for the quarter was NT$5 billion. The effective tax rate for the third quarter was 21.4%. We expect the tax rate to taper down during the fourth quarter. We now expect a full year effective tax rate being closer to 21%.

營業利潤為新台幣 237 億元，環比增長新台幣 31 億元，同比增長新台幣 53 億元。營業利潤率為12.6%，環比下降0.2個百分點。由於較高的經營槓桿，經營利潤率每年增加 0.3 個百分點。本季度，我們的營業外淨虧損為新台幣 1 億元。該金額包括我們的淨外匯對沖活動的收益被淨利息支出10億新台幣全部抵消。由於我們的浮動利率債務利率較高以及本季度股息分配後藉款增加，利息費用較高。本季度的稅費為新台幣 50 億元。第三季度的有效稅率為21.4%。我們預計稅率將在第四季度逐漸下降。我們現在預計全年有效稅率接近 21%。

Net income for the quarter was NT$17.5 billion, representing an improvement of NT$1.5 billion sequentially and NT$3.3 billion year-over-year. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the NT dollar and the Chinese yuan during the third quarter. Sequentially, we estimate that currency fluctuation had a 1.2 percentage point beneficial impact to our holding company gross margin. From a year-over-year perspective, we estimate that currency fluctuation had a 3.1 percentage point positive impact to gross margin. On the bottom of the page, we provide key P&L line items without the inclusion of PPA-related expenses. Consolidated gross profit would be NT$38.9 billion with a 20.6% gross margin. Operating profit would be NT$24.9 billion with an operating margin of 13.2%. Net profit would be NT$18.6 billion with a net margin of 9.9%. Basic EPS, excluding PPA expenses, would be NT$4.30.

本季度淨利潤為新台幣 175 億元，環比增長新台幣 15 億元，同比增長新台幣 33 億元。第三季度美元兌新台幣和人民幣走強。因此，我們估計貨幣波動對我們控股公司的毛利率產生了 1.2 個百分點的有利影響。從同比來看，我們估計貨幣波動對毛利率產生了 3.1 個百分點的積極影響。在頁面底部，我們提供了關鍵的損益表項目，但不包括與 PPA 相關的費用。綜合毛利為新台幣389億元，毛利率為20.6%。營業利潤為新台幣249億元，營業利潤率為13.2%。淨利潤為新台幣186億元，淨利潤率為9.9%。扣除 PPA 費用後的基本每股收益為新台幣 4.30 元。

On Page 4 is a graphical presentation of our consolidated financial performance. The overall gross margin performance of the company fluctuates somewhat generally in line with the mix of EMS revenue, relative to our ATM revenue. The overall profitability of the businesses have improved with increased business scale. Despite the business environment appearing to slow down, we still delivered record revenues and operating profit at the holding company level and at each of our ATM and EMS business units.

第 4 頁是我們綜合財務業績的圖形展示。相對於我們的 ATM 收入，公司的整體毛利率表現大致上與 EMS 收入的組合一致。隨著業務規模的擴大，業務的整體盈利能力有所提高。儘管商業環境似乎放緩，但我們仍然在控股公司層面以及我們的每個 ATM 和 EMS 業務部門實現了創紀錄的收入和營業利潤。

On Page 5 is our ATM P&L with historical results on a legal entity and pro forma basis. During the third quarter, on a U.S. dollar basis, our ATM business revenues performed in line with our original outlook. Capacities continued to be relatively tight during the quarter and with strong demand for our advanced and SiP products, leading to higher material content. Overall, demand for our services remained strong despite ongoing inventory digestion. Customer forecast achievement was also relatively good during the quarter. We did not see major surprises to either the upside or downside, although forecast adjustments for future quarters were more dynamic. Certain communications, automotive and networking products were relatively stronger during the quarter.

第 5 頁是我們的 ATM 損益表，其中包含法人實體和備考基礎上的歷史結果。在第三季度，以美元計算，我們的 ATM 業務收入表現符合我們最初的預期。本季度產能繼續相對緊張，對我們的先進和 SiP 產品的需求強勁，導致材料含量更高。總體而言，儘管庫存持續消化，但對我們服務的需求依然強勁。本季度的客戶預測業績也相對較好。儘管對未來季度的預測調整更具活力，但我們並未看到上行或下行的重大意外。某些通信、汽車和網絡產品在本季度表現相對強勁。

On the expense side of our ATM business, as somewhat anticipated, we continued to see a higher cost environment relating to various unfavorable macro situations. In particular, we are noting some inflationary impact on our cost of goods sold, including costs related to various bills of material, energy costs and rising labor rates. These impacts have largely been offset by local currency depreciation and higher pass-through pricing to our customers.

在我們的 ATM 業務的費用方面，正如一些預期的那樣，我們繼續看到與各種不利的宏觀形勢相關的更高成本環境。特別是，我們注意到通貨膨脹對我們的銷售成本產生了一些影響，包括與各種材料、能源成本和勞動力價格上漲相關的成本。這些影響在很大程度上被當地貨幣貶值和對我們客戶的更高的傳遞定價所抵消。

For the third quarter, revenues for our ATM business were a record NT$98.8 billion, up NT$3.8 billion from the previous quarter and up NT$8.7 billion from the same period last year. This represents a 4% increase sequentially and a 10% increase year-over-year. Gross profit for our ATM business was NT$28.8 billion, up NT$1.1 billion sequentially and up NT$4.1 billion year-over-year. Gross profit margin for our ATM business was 29.2%, flat sequentially and up 1.8 percentage points year-over-year. The sequential gross margins were flat primarily due to the effect of NT dollar depreciation, offset by higher raw material product mix and higher utility costs. The year-over-year gross profit margin improvement was primarily attributable to business scale benefits and NT dollar depreciation, offsetting the negative impact of a higher raw material product mix and increases in other manufacturing costs.

第三季度，我們的ATM業務收入創紀錄的新台幣988億元，比上一季度增加新台幣38億元，比去年同期增加新台幣87億元。這意味著環比增長 4%，同比增長 10%。 ATM業務的毛利為288億新台幣，環比增長11億新台幣，同比增長41億新台幣。 ATM業務的毛利率為29.2%，環比持平，同比增長1.8個百分點。連續毛利率持平主要是由於新台幣貶值的影響，但被更高的原材料產品組合和更高的公用事業成本所抵消。毛利率同比增長主要得益於業務規模效益和新台幣貶值，抵消了更高的原材料產品組合和其他製造成本增加的負面影響。

During the third quarter, operating expenses were NT$10.2 billion, up NT$0.4 billion sequentially and NT$1.1 billion year-over-year. Our operating expense percentage was 10.3%, flat sequentially and up 0.2 percentage points year-over-year. The increase was driven by higher salary and profit-sharing expenses from achieving higher profitability targets. During the third quarter, operating profit was NT$18.7 billion, representing an increase of NT$0.7 billion quarter-over-quarter and an improvement of NT$3 billion year-over-year. Operating margin was 18.9%, flat sequentially and up 1.5 percentage points year-over-year.

第三季度營業費用為新台幣102億元，環比增加4億元，同比增加11億元。我們的營業費用百分比為 10.3%，環比持平，同比上升 0.2 個百分點。這一增長是由於實現更高的盈利目標而導致的更高的工資和利潤分享費用。第三季度營業利潤為新台幣187億元，環比增加7億元，同比增加30億元。營業利潤率為 18.9%，環比持平，同比增長 1.5 個百分點。

The NT dollar depreciating against the U.S. dollar had a positive 1.3 percentage point impact on our ATM sequential margins. On a year-over-year basis, we estimate that the strengthening U.S. dollar had a 3.8 percentage point positive impact to margins. Without the impact of PPA-related depreciation and amortization, ATM gross profit margin would be 30.1%. Operating profit margin would be 20%. On Page 6, you'll find a graphical representation of our pro forma ATM P&L.

新台幣兌美元貶值對我們的 ATM 連續利潤率產生了 1.3 個百分點的積極影響。與去年同期相比，我們估計美元走強對利潤率產生了 3.8 個百分點的積極影響。如果沒有與 PPA 相關的折舊和攤銷的影響，ATM 毛利率將為 30.1%。營業利潤率為20%。在第 6 頁，您將找到我們的備考 ATM 損益表的圖形表示。

On Page 7 is our pro forma ATM revenue by market segment. The market segments were relatively unchanged as compared with the previous quarter, with 1 percentage increase in communications and 1 percentage point decrease in automotive, consumer and others. And though the automotive segment is not separately displayed here, it continues to outgrow other market segments.

第 7 頁是我們按細分市場劃分的備考 ATM 收入。細分市場與上一季度相比基本持平，通信類增長1個百分點，汽車、消費類等下降1個百分點。儘管這裡沒有單獨展示汽車細分市場，但它的增長速度繼續超過其他細分市場。

On Page 8, you will find our pro forma ATM by service type. Service type percentages were relatively stable with advanced packaging and wire bonding, each giving a percentage point to materials and others. Seasonal softness within our advanced packaging and wire bond businesses, compounded with the seasonality of our RF module production led to small percentage movements in each category.

在第 8 頁，您將按服務類型找到我們的備考 ATM。先進封裝和引線鍵合的服務類型百分比相對穩定，每種都給材料和其他一個百分點。我們先進封裝和引線鍵合業務的季節性疲軟，加上我們射頻模塊生產的季節性，導致每個類別的百分比變動很小。

On Page 9, you can see the third quarter results of our EMS business. During the quarter, demand was stronger than anticipated, driven by higher loading and stronger-than-expected demand for both our traditional EMS and SiP services. We believe some products may have an earlier manufacturing cycle when compared with the previous year. Customers in general have been proactive to produce earlier as a preventive measure against any unforeseen supply chain disruptions. In terms of EMS profitability, current quarter improvements were driven by increased scale of manufacturing and the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to the RMB causing short-term reductions in raw material costs recorded during the quarter.

在第 9 頁，您可以看到我們 EMS 業務的第三季度業績。在本季度，由於負載增加以及對我們傳統 EMS 和 SiP 服務的需求強於預期，需求強於預期。我們認為，與上一年相比，某些產品的製造週期可能會提前。總體而言，客戶一直積極主動地提早生產，以預防任何不可預見的供應鏈中斷。就 EMS 盈利能力而言，本季度的改善是由於製造規模的擴大和美元相對於人民幣的走強導致本季度原材料成本的短期下降。

During the third quarter, EMS revenues increased NT$24.4 billion or 37% sequentially and increased NT$29.5 billion or 48% year-over-year. Revenues were somewhat ahead of where we expected, primarily as a result of higher-than-expected SiP and traditional EMS business. Overall, profitability for our EMS business improved with gross margin increasing 0.1 percentage points to 10.1% and reaching 5.6% operating margin. The RMB weakening against the U.S. dollar improved gross margins by 0.8 percentage points during the quarter.

第三季度，EMS收入環比增長244億新台幣或37%，同比增長295億新台幣或48%。收入略高於我們的預期，主要是由於高於預期的 SiP 和傳統 EMS 業務。總體而言，我們的 EMS 業務的盈利能力有所改善，毛利率上升 0.1 個百分點至 10.1%，營業利潤率達到 5.6%。人民幣兌美元走弱使本季度毛利率提高了 0.8 個百分點。

On the bottom half of the page, you will find a graphical representation of our EMS revenue by application. Application movements here are generally in line with underlying product seasonality with consumer and communications peaking and other applications declining.

在頁面的下半部分，您會發現我們的 EMS 收入（按應用程序）的圖形表示。這裡的應用程序移動通常與潛在的產品季節性一致，消費者和通信達到峰值而其他應用程序下降。

On Page 10, you will find key line items from our balance sheet. At the end of the quarter, we had cash, cash equivalents and current financial assets of NT$62 billion. Our total interest-bearing debt was NT$224 billion. Total unused credit lines amounted to NT$296.1 billion. Our EBITDA for the quarter was NT$38.6 billion. Net debt to equity was 53%. Our annual dividend payment was made during the third quarter, resulting in higher net debt to equity percentage.

在第 10 頁，您將找到我們資產負債表中的關鍵項目。截至本季度末，我們的現金、現金等價物和流動金融資產為新台幣 620 億元。我們的有息債務總額為新台幣 2,240 億元。未使用的授信額度總額為新台幣 2,961 億元。我們本季度的 EBITDA 為新台幣 386 億元。淨債務權益比率為 53%。我們的年度股息支付是在第三季度支付的，導致淨債務與權益的百分比更高。

On Page 11, you will find our equipment capital expenditures. Machinery and equipment capital expenditures for the third quarter in U.S. dollars totaled $400 million, of which $197 million were used in packaging operations, $134 million in test operations, and $50 million in EMS operations and $19 million in interconnect material operations and others. We continue to provide our EBITDA in U.S. dollars here as a reference. We believe that the company's EBITDA relative to our equipment CapEx serves as a key financial performance metric for the company. For the quarter, EBITDA was $1.3 billion.

在第 11 頁，您將找到我們的設備資本支出。第三季度以美元計的機械設備資本支出總計 4 億美元，其中 1.97 億美元用於封裝業務，1.34 億美元用於測試業務，5000 萬美元用於 EMS 業務，1900 萬美元用於互連材料業務等。我們繼續在此處以美元提供我們的 EBITDA 作為參考。我們認為，公司的 EBITDA 相對於我們的設備資本支出是公司的關鍵財務業績指標。本季度，EBITDA 為 13 億美元。

Looking forward, we would first like to address the potential impact of the recent U.S. EAR. We, at this time, believe that relatively few devices that are currently serviced by ASC fit the specifications indicated in the recently issued U.S. rules. As such, at this time, we do not believe there to be a material financial impact. Nevertheless, we will continue to work closely with our customers to assess that future products may cross such thresholds. Second, in regards to the ongoing business environment, as our COO, Dr. Tien Wu mentioned in our previous quarter's call, we believe the industry continues to be in a state of inventory correction.

展望未來，我們首先要解決最近美國 EAR 的潛在影響。目前，我們認為，目前由 ASC 提供服務的設備相對較少，符合最近發布的美國規則中規定的規格。因此，目前，我們認為不會產生重大的財務影響。儘管如此，我們將繼續與我們的客戶密切合作，以評估未來的產品可能會跨越這些門檻。其次，關於持續的商業環境，正如我們的首席運營官吳天博士在我們上一季度的電話會議中提到的那樣，我們認為該行業繼續處於庫存調整狀態。

Unexpected demand compounded with supply instability created an unprecedented manufacturing situation. The volatile supply chain was unusually complicated as COVID spread throughout the world. Companies not only needed to order more products, they also had to deal with longer lead times and earlier order commitments. As signs of cooling began towards the end of 2021 into early 2022, production continued at previously established rates. This phenomenon appears to have created a higher level of inventory throughout the semiconductor manufacturing chain.

意外的需求加上供應不穩定造成了前所未有的製造業形勢。隨著 COVID 傳播到世界各地，動蕩的供應鏈異常複雜。公司不僅需要訂購更多產品，還必須處理更長的交貨時間和更早的訂單承諾。隨著從 2021 年底到 2022 年初開始出現降溫跡象，生產繼續以先前確定的速度進行。這種現像似乎在整個半導體製造鏈中造成了更高水平的庫存。

Now as most of the world adapts to an endemic COVID society, the semiconductor industry looks to reset back to a more normalized level of inventory. In the same light that our customers look to bring up overall inventory, they are now choosing to bring down inventory to adjust for lower manufacturing risk and a softening demand environment. This is the framework of the current industry inventory digestion.

現在，隨著世界大部分地區適應流行的 COVID 社會，半導體行業希望重新回到更正常的庫存水平。鑑於我們的客戶希望提高整體庫存，他們現在選擇降低庫存以適應較低的製造風險和疲軟的需求環境。這是當前行業庫存消化的框架。

For the fourth quarter, we see a generally softening environment. There will be some products that remain relatively strong, but issues with potential recessions and anti-inflationary policies look to be dampening overall demand. Even looking beyond the fourth quarter, our customer forecasts are also experiencing in an additional level of volatility as customers balance inventory reduction with product demand. Despite adjusting downward, forecast movements are on balance, very controlled. We do see this environment continuing to stretch into the first half of 2023.

對於第四季度，我們看到一個普遍疲軟的環境。將有一些產品保持相對強勁，但潛在衰退和反通脹政策的問題似乎正在抑制整體需求。即使在第四季度之後，我們的客戶預測也將經歷額外的波動，因為客戶在減少庫存與產品需求之間取得了平衡。儘管向下調整，但預測走勢是平衡的，非常受控。我們確實看到這種環境會持續到 2023 年上半年。

We believe that the interesting question to ask would be, what impact will the inventory digestion period have on ASE? And what will the impact be once it's over? Of course, we don't have a magic crystal ball, but we can take an educated guess based upon 3 differences between the previous down cycle versus the upcoming one. First and foremost, our combination with SPIL has been completed. This increases our service offerings and our pricing capability even in a soft environment. Second, we have demonstrated that customers prefer ASC over our competition. As a result, we continue to gain share and even more so in a downturn. We estimate that we are roughly 3x the size and scale in pure ATM business of our nearest competitor. With a sizable scale advantages comes competitive advantages in the form of lower cost and better yield.

我們認為，有趣的問題是，庫存消化期對 ASE 有何影響？結束後會有什麼影響？當然，我們沒有魔法水晶球，但我們可以根據前一個下行週期與即將到來的下行週期之間的 3 個差異進行有根據的猜測。首先，我們與SPIL的結合已經完成。即使在軟環境中，這也增加了我們的服務和定價能力。其次，我們已經證明客戶比我們的競爭對手更喜歡 ASC。因此，我們繼續獲得份額，在經濟低迷時期更是如此。我們估計，我們在純 ATM 業務中的規模和規模大約是最接近的競爭對手的 3 倍。具有相當大的規模優勢帶來了更低的成本和更高的產量形式的競爭優勢。

Third, heterogeneous integration, paired with recent developments in advanced packaging technologies are encouraging our customers to rethink how their future products are designed. ATM manufacturing processes are now becoming part of the mainstream methodology for increasing transistor density. ASE is in a unique position to deliver additional value in these newly developing markets. These competitive factors lead us to believe that we are in the most competitive position we have been in ever. And as a result, we believe we can continue to outgrow our competition. Even though next year, we see the logic semiconductor industry's prospects as being somewhat soft, ASE can continue to outperform our competition. It's definitely early and customer forecasts are not particularly firm. But if we were to guess at this point, with the current information, we see a seasonally shaped, but flattish year ahead of us.

第三，異構集成與先進封裝技術的最新發展相結合，正在鼓勵我們的客戶重新思考他們未來產品的設計方式。 ATM 製造工藝現在正成為增加晶體管密度的主流方法的一部分。 ASE 在這些新興市場提供額外價值方面處於獨特的地位。這些競爭因素使我們相信我們處於有史以來最具競爭力的位置。因此，我們相信我們可以繼續超越競爭對手。儘管明年我們認為邏輯半導體行業的前景有些疲軟，但日月光仍可以繼續超越我們的競爭對手。現在肯定還早，客戶預測也不是特別確定。但是，如果我們在這一點上猜測，根據當前的信息，我們會看到一個季節性的但平淡的一年。

From a profitability perspective, we reiterate our belief that annual structural margins have been lifted from peaking and troughing historically between cycles between 20% to 25% to now from the mid-20%s to 30%. Though we do not necessarily wish for a down cycle, we do understand that with one, we will be given the opportunity to prove our strategic assessment and demonstrate our resiliency. As a note, we are trying to improve transparency and simplify the methodology used to provide our quarterly outlook. We have made a few changes in the way we provide our outlook. Part of this change includes using NT dollar figures with applicable exchange rate assumptions.

從盈利能力的角度來看，我們重申我們的信念，即年度結構性利潤率已從歷史上 20% 至 25% 的周期之間的高峰和低谷提升到現在的 20% 至 30% 之間。儘管我們不一定希望出現下行週期，但我們確實明白，有了一個，我們將有機會證明我們的戰略評估並展示我們的彈性。作為說明，我們正在努力提高透明度並簡化用於提供我們季度展望的方法。我們在提供展望的方式上做了一些改變。這種變化的一部分包括使用具有適用匯率假設的新台幣數字。

We see the U.S. dollar and NT dollar exchange rate going from 30.1% in the third quarter to 31.8% in the fourth quarter. With those exchange rates in mind, we provide our outlook as follows. For our ATM business in NT dollar terms, our ATM fourth quarter 2022 business levels should be slightly below second quarter levels this year. As a reference, our ATM second quarter revenues were NT$94.9 billion. Our ATM fourth quarter 2022 gross margin should be slightly below first quarter 2022 gross margin. As a reference, our first quarter 2022 gross margin was 27.5%. For our EMS business in NT dollar terms, our EMS fourth quarter 2022 business levels should be slightly above third quarter levels this year. As a reference, our third quarter EMS revenues were NT$90.7 billion. Our EMS fourth quarter 2022 operating margin should be close to the operating margin in the same period last year. As a reference, our fourth quarter 2021 operating margin was 4.4%.

我們看到美元和新台幣匯率從第三季度的 30.1% 上升到第四季度的 31.8%。考慮到這些匯率，我們提供如下展望。對於我們以新台幣計算的 ATM 業務，我們 2022 年第四季度的 ATM 業務水平應該略低於今年第二季度的水平。作為參考，我們的 ATM 第二季度收入為新台幣 949 億元。我們的 ATM 2022 年第四季度毛利率應略低於 2022 年第一季度的毛利率。作為參考，我們 2022 年第一季度的毛利率為 27.5%。對於我們以新台幣計算的 EMS 業務，我們 EMS 2022 年第四季度的業務水平應該略高於今年第三季度的水平。作為參考，我們第三季度的 EMS 收入為新台幣 907 億元。我們 EMS 2022 年第四季度的營業利潤率應該接近去年同期的營業利潤率。作為參考，我們 2021 年第四季度的營業利潤率為 4.4%。

Thank you. We can start our Q&A session now.

謝謝你。我們現在可以開始我們的問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Now we have a question from Mr. Randy Abrams of Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）現在我們有一個來自瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams 先生的問題。

Yes. Okay, the first question I wanted to ask, actually on your acknowledgment of the slowdown. Could you talk about the CapEx outlook? It looks like you slowed it down a bit for third quarter. If you could give a latest how you expect '22 to come in and then also a view for '23? And then within that, you've had relatively better utilization and strength on advanced technology, whether you're seeing that start to slow or do you still see, into the coming quarters, to advanced holding up better than some of the mature wire bonding?

是的。好的，我想問的第一個問題，實際上是關於你對經濟放緩的承認。您能談談資本支出前景嗎？看起來你在第三季度放慢了速度。如果你能給出一個最新的你期望 '22 的到來，然後還有對 '23 的看法？然後在此範圍內，您對先進技術的利用和實力相對較好，無論您是看到它開始放緩還是您仍然看到，在接下來的幾個季度中，先進的保持比一些成熟的引線鍵合更好?

Yes, I think for this year's CapEx, we will bring this down a little bit, roughly around 10%. For next year, we're still in the process of formulating the overall outlook, and we will decide how much we will be spending for next year. In terms of utilization in quarter 3, we continue to have pretty tight utilization with assembly and tests, both over 80%. But going into fourth, I think the overall utilization will range from 75% to 80% for both assembly and test with the advanced packaging capacity slightly higher than wire bonding.

是的，我認為對於今年的資本支出，我們將把它降低一點，大約 10% 左右。對於明年，我們仍在製定總體前景的過程中，我們將決定明年我們將花費多少。就第三季度的利用率而言，我們在組裝和測試方面的利用率仍然非常緊張，均超過 80%。但進入第四，我認為組裝和測試的整體利用率將在 75% 到 80% 之間，高級封裝能力略高於引線鍵合。

And then the -- I guess I'm going to get to -- okay, the second question I wanted to ask, actually, if you could give a bit more detail about the margins, where it looks like in your guidance, it's going back to first quarter level, sales back to Q2, so implies a bit more a dip despite currency being favorable. So if you could talk about that trend and then also how the -- I think you mentioned it should be a better pricing environment, but just how you are seeing that, whether customer pressure, competitive pressure, how that's shaping up? And then just a factor on the margin, what's driving a little bit bigger decline there?

然後 - 我想我要開始了 - 好吧，我想問的第二個問題，實際上，如果你能提供更多關於邊距的細節，它在你的指導中看起來像什麼，它會去回到第一季度的水平，銷售回到第二季度，因此儘管貨幣有利，但意味著更多的下降。所以，如果你能談談這個趨勢，然後還有——我認為你提到它應該是一個更好的定價環境，但你是如何看待的，無論是客戶壓力、競爭壓力，它是如何形成的？然後只是邊際上的一個因素，是什麼推動了那裡更大的下降？

Well, I think overall in the fourth quarter, I think the pricing still remains to be stable. And although we do expect that there will be around going back to a normal pricing negotiation going into next year. In terms of margin, I think, of course, the loading really is the determining factor of our margin and going into quarter 4, because there is going to be some softness in terms of the overall utilization and the volume will be -- will come down a bit. So the margin certainly will have some impact. In quarter 3, we had a better margin because the loading continues to be high. But I think going to quarter 4, the margin prospects we are looking at, it really reflects the differences in our loading. And also, I think the -- as we mentioned earlier, we are entering into a higher cost structure, higher cost environment because of developing macro situations that we're facing.

好吧，我認為總體而言，在第四季度，我認為定價仍然保持穩定。儘管我們確實預計明年將恢復正常的定價談判。就利潤率而言，我認為，當然，負載確實是我們利潤率的決定因素，進入第 4 季度，因為整體利用率方面將會出現一些疲軟，而且數量將會 - 將會到來下降一點。所以保證金肯定會有一些影響。在第三季度，我們的利潤率更高，因為負載仍然很高。但我認為到第四季度，我們正在關注的利潤率前景，它確實反映了我們負載的差異。而且，我認為 - 正如我們之前提到的，由於我們面臨的宏觀形勢的發展，我們正在進入一個更高的成本結構、更高的成本環境。

Next question is from Ms. Sunny Lin of UBS. Sunny?

下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Sunny Lin 女士。桑尼？

Hi, can you hear me?

嗨，你能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So my first question is to get your thoughts on how we should think about the seasonality going to first half 2023. I understand things are still moving pretty quickly, but any initial expectation will be appreciated?

所以我的第一個問題是，請您談談我們應該如何考慮到 2023 年上半年的季節性。我知道事情進展得很快，但任何初步預期都會受到讚賞？

Like we said, there's a lot of -- still a lot of uncertainties in front of us, and we are not giving out any guidance for first quarter yet. What we can say is, we're going to see a normal seasonality factor that comes into play. And typically, in the first quarter, in the past, under the normal seasonality, we should be looking at a 5% to 10% drop in the revenue.

就像我們說的那樣，我們面前還有很多 - 仍然有很多不確定性，我們還沒有給出第一季度的任何指導。我們可以說的是，我們將看到一個正常的季節性因素發揮作用。通常，在過去的第一季度，在正常的季節性情況下，我們應該看到收入下降 5% 到 10%。

Got it. Then my second question is, if we look at the demand environment for the second half of the year, automotive, consumer, industrial are still relatively stable. But how would you think about the sustainability going to early 2023? I guess in recent weeks, we started to hear from the supply chain regarding the increasing uncertainties. So just wanted to get your thoughts here. And also, would you expect the IBM outsourcing to also slow down somewhat going to 2023?

知道了。那麼我的第二個問題是，如果我們看下半年的需求環境，汽車、消費、工業還是比較穩定的。但是您如何看待到 2023 年初的可持續性？我想最近幾週，我們開始從供應鏈中聽到越來越多的不確定性。所以只是想在這裡得到你的想法。此外，您是否預計 IBM 外包業務到 2023 年也會有所放緩？

I think it's, we're not different from anybody else in the industry that we are facing the same uncertainties in front of us. And our best estimate for the year is that, we should be looking at a flattish year. And given our position, we remain confident that we will outperform the industry as a whole and also the our competitors.

我認為，我們與業內其他任何公司都面臨著同樣的不確定性。我們對今年的最佳估計是，我們應該看到一個平淡的一年。鑑於我們的地位，我們仍然相信我們將超越整個行業以及我們的競爭對手。

Going into the first quarter, I think the -- I think the same pattern remains that the automotive and networking will continue to be performing stronger than the other sectors. And I think the industry inventory digestion will continue in the first half of next year. And also the new restrictions imposed by the U.S., that remains to be seen. So there are a lot of moving parts in front of us, and we will be closely monitoring the situation.

進入第一季度，我認為 - 我認為同樣的模式仍然是汽車和網絡將繼續表現優於其他行業。而且我認為行業庫存消化將在明年上半年繼續。還有美國施加的新限制，還有待觀察。所以我們面前有很多活動的部分，我們將密切關注情況。

Our next question is from Baya Kumar. Baya, please state your company name before your questions. Baya?

我們的下一個問題來自 Baya Kumar。 Baya，請在提問前說明您的公司名稱。巴亞？

Our next question is from Rick Hsu.

我們的下一個問題來自 Rick Hsu。

Yes, can you guys hear me?

是的，你們能聽到我的聲音嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Just one question to Joseph. I just wanted to clarify, when you said, next year you're looking for kind of flattish 2023. Does that mean the total -- your total business or the total industry IC, ATM business or the global semiconductor market?

好的。只問約瑟夫一個問題。我只是想澄清一下，當你說，明年你正在尋找一種平淡的 2023 年。這是否意味著總數——你的總業務或整個行業 IC、ATM 業務或全球半導體市場？

No, no, we're talking about ourselves. I think the general idea is that the market returns softer next year. And -- but from our best estimates, we're looking at our overall situation and the customer forecast, we're still confident that we will outcompete everybody else and maintaining at least a flattish year for ourselves in terms of our ATM business. And another factor to look at is that we believe that in a down -- particularly in a downward market situation, our market share expansion should actually accelerate given our leading position there.

不，不，我們在談論我們自己。我認為總體思路是明年市場將走軟。而且 - 但根據我們的最佳估計，我們正在關注我們的整體情況和客戶預測，我們仍然相信我們將在競爭中勝過其他所有人，並在我們的 ATM 業務方面保持至少平淡的一年。另一個需要考慮的因素是，我們相信在市場下行——尤其是在下行的市場情況下，鑑於我們在那裡的領先地位，我們的市場份額擴張實際上應該加速。

Right. Okay. Just one quick follow-up. Can you give us more color about what's your view on the global semiconductor market next year? Were a bit declining or just give us some direction?

正確的。好的。只需快速跟進。您能否就您對明年全球半導體市場的看法提供更多信息？是有點下降還是只是給我們一些方向？

Well, I think the chance of coming down seems to be higher.

嗯，我認為下來的機會似乎更高。

Okay. Great. Yes, that's helpful. Yes, that's all I have.

好的。偉大的。是的，這很有幫助。是的，這就是我所擁有的。

You are welcome.

不客氣。

Next question is from Evelyn Yu of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Evelyn Yu。

This is Bruce. Can you hear me?

這是布魯斯。你能聽到我嗎？

Oh, Bruce.

哦，布魯斯。

Hi, Bruce.

嗨，布魯斯。

Let me try to add some simple questions. So can you give us what's your capacity distribution? How much of a capacity in China? How much of a capacity from different geographic location? And what is the revenue coming from the different geographic location, for ATM alone? And for EMS, for your consumer and communication business, how much of the business and the capacity is coming from China?

讓我嘗試添加一些簡單的問題。那麼你能告訴我們你的容量分佈是什麼嗎？中國的產能有多少？不同地理位置的容量有多大？僅就 ATM 而言，來自不同地理位置的收入是多少？對於EMS，對於您的消費和通信業務，有多少業務和產能來自中國？

In terms of ATM, we have about 7% out of China in terms of capacity. And our Taiwan operation is about 85%.

在 ATM 方面，就容量而言，我們有大約 7% 來自中國。而我們台灣的業務大約是85%。

For EMS?

對於EMS？

EMS around 60%-some in China and the others are all over the place.

EMS 大約 60%——一些在中國，其他的遍布各地。

Do you see a strong customer demand asking for Taiwan plus 1 or China plus 1 capacity or, i.e., that they're asking you to have some big upside outside of Taiwan and China?

您是否看到強烈的客戶需求要求台灣加 1 或中國加 1 產能，或者，他們要求您在台灣和中國以外有一些大的上漲空間？

I don't think it's that obvious in terms of ATM. I think the -- our going rates still continue to be strong in Taiwan because of the much larger and more complete infrastructure. It's very difficult to go outside to set up something new in the short run. And I think all the technology development are still here. So I think the customers are still pretty confident that working with Taiwan is a safer bet for them. But in terms of EMS, we do see more requests from our customers to further expand to outside of China. And so we are making a lot of progress in terms of expanding our capacity outside of China, including our investment in Poland, in Vietnam, also in Taiwan.

我認為在 ATM 方面並不那麼明顯。我認為，由於更大、更完整的基礎設施，我們在台灣的運行速度仍然保持強勁。短期內很難走出去建立新的東西。而且我認為所有的技術發展都還在這裡。所以我認為客戶仍然非常有信心與台灣合作對他們來說是一個更安全的選擇。但在 EMS 方面，我們確實看到更多客戶要求進一步擴展到中國以外。因此，我們在擴大中國以外的產能方面取得了很大進展，包括我們在波蘭、越南和台灣的投資。

I see, so which means that you don't have the capacity or you don't have any plan to increase your non-Taiwan and non-China ATM capacity, and do you see any building out plan at this moment?

我明白了，這意味著你們沒有能力或者沒有任何計劃增加非台灣和中國以外的 ATM 能力，你現在看到有什麼建設計劃嗎？

We'll continue to monitor the situation, and we'll go where our customer wants us to go, provided that makes commercial sense for us. So it's going to be a dynamic process. We'll continue to monitor the situation and make the right decision.

我們將繼續監控情況，我們會去客戶希望我們去的地方，只要這對我們有商業意義。所以這將是一個動態的過程。我們將繼續關注情況並做出正確的決定。

So current customer demand is not strong enough for you to make a decision to go aggressive to expand the ATM capacity outside of Taiwan and China?

因此，目前的客戶需求不足以讓您決定積極擴展台灣和中國以外的 ATM 容量？

I think what you're referring to is really the U.S. and yes, I think there are some inquiries about whether we will be having something sizable in the U.S. And like I said, we are monitoring the situation and see how we can better address that when the time comes.

我認為你所指的實際上是美國，是的，我認為有一些關於我們是否會在美國有相當規模的東西的詢問。就像我說的那樣，我們正在監控情況，看看我們如何才能更好地解決這個問題在時機成熟時。

I see, I understand that. The next question, I'll try to follow-up with the seasonality. I'm actually very surprised that you mentioned that the first quarter is going to be a pretty -- it will follow a seasonality, which is not the case for most of the foundry at this moment. I mean, we are looking at 16%, 20% sequential decline in the first quarter for most of the foundry names. And if there's no wafer, how can you have the similar like previous years. So can you tell me where -- can you tell me that my thought process with this is might go wrong?

我明白了，我明白這一點。下一個問題，我將嘗試跟進季節性。實際上，我很驚訝你提到第一季度將會很不錯——它將遵循季節性，目前大多數代工廠都不是這種情況。我的意思是，我們預計大多數代工廠商第一季度將連續下降 16% 和 20%。而如果沒有晶圓，怎麼可能像往年一樣。那麼你能告訴我在哪裡 - 你能告訴我我的思考過程可能會出錯嗎？

There is a time lag between our foundries and production in our -- and our production. I think the wafer bank has already been there. And we're looking at the quarter performance based on the forecast that we're getting from our customers. Right now we do see a normal seasonality pattern in the first quarter.

我們的鑄造廠和我們的生產之間存在時間差——以及我們的生產。我認為晶圓庫已經在那裡了。我們正在根據我們從客戶那裡得到的預測來查看季度業績。目前，我們確實在第一季度看到了正常的季節性模式。

I see, well, that's a lot better than expectation. One quick follow-up for the LTA. What's the current situation for those LTA you saw like a couple of quarters ago. And you also mentioned some -- a little bit different pricing environment in the fourth quarter. Can you elaborate a bit more?

我明白了，嗯，這比預期的要好得多。 LTA 的一項快速跟進。您在幾個季度前看到的那些 LTA 目前的情況如何。你還提到了一些——第四季度的定價環境有點不同。你能詳細說明一下嗎？

Well, I think the LTA is signed doing a -- relatively a special circumstances and is one of the ways for us to secure a -- better our relationship with customers. I think it did serve its purpose and the LTAs are going into a retirement cycle now. I think coming next year, I think things will start to be normalized in terms of our pricing negotiations and I think our position does give us a good leverage to have a suitable pricing strategy that works for both ourselves and our customers. And that would be the pricing environment for next year.

好吧，我認為簽署長期協議是為了 - 相對特殊的情況，並且是我們確保 - 更好地與客戶關係的方式之一。我認為它確實達到了它的目的，LTA 現在正進入退休週期。我認為明年，我們的定價談判將開始正常化，我認為我們的立場確實為我們提供了一個很好的槓桿，可以製定一個適合我們自己和我們的客戶的定價策略。這將是明年的定價環境。

Next question is from Szeho Ng of China Renaissance. Yes. Two questions for me. The first one, is it possible to quantify any additional cost synergy we can expect from the ASE/SPIL merger? Because I can't really mention that, does the merger actually make a small resilient in the downturn?

下一個問題來自華興資本的 Szeho Ng。是的。我有兩個問題。第一個問題，是否可以量化我們可以從 ASE/SPIL 合併中獲得的任何額外成本協同效應？因為我不能真正提到這一點，合併是否真的在低迷時期產生了小的彈性？

Well, of course, the synergy can come from our business negotiations with our customers. It comes from the better usage or better allocation with our resource, in terms of our R&D efforts, in many different areas we can have synergies created and sharing of best known message is also one of them. So that's really what Ken was mentioning earlier on in the session. And that through the merger with SPIL, it does give us a better cost structure and also more -- higher efficiency when we're facing a challenging environment now.

當然，協同效應可以來自我們與客戶的業務談判。它來自更好地使用或更好地分配我們的資源，就我們的研發工作而言，在許多不同的領域我們可以創造協同效應，分享最知名的信息也是其中之一。這就是Ken 在會議早些時候提到的。通過與 SPIL 的合併，它確實為我們提供了更好的成本結構以及更多——當我們現在面臨充滿挑戰的環境時更高的效率。

Now maybe just coming to OpEx intensity perspective, can we expect further improvement?

現在也許只是從運營支出強度的角度來看，我們可以期待進一步的改善嗎？

Well, I think we have been making a lot of improvement in terms of our OpEx, right? In third quarter, our OpEx ratio was 7.6%, down from -- if we look at the same period last year, it was probably 8.2%. So we're making a lot of progress in operating expenses. And for quarter 4, I think the OpEx ratio will remain at the similar level to quarter 3. So we will continue to have a tight control over our operating expenses.

好吧，我認為我們在 OpEx 方面已經取得了很大的進步，對吧？第三季度，我們的運營支出率為 7.6%，低於去年同期的 8.2%。因此，我們在運營費用方面取得了很大進展。對於第 4 季度，我認為 OpEx 比率將保持在與第 3 季度相似的水平。因此我們將繼續嚴格控制我們的運營費用。

Our next question is from Mr. Gokul Hariharan.

我們的下一個問題來自 Gokul Hariharan 先生。

Congrats on the resilience on the margins, especially. I had a couple of questions. One, could you talk a little bit about the inventory situation that you're seeing today compare it with the last maybe couple of cycles. What -- based on the wafer banks that you see, as well as what you see with customers, it feels like inventory is definitely much more elevated compared to the last few cycles. So just wanted to understand why you feel by first half this year, we should be -- first of next year, we should be done within inventory correction? Or do you think that it could take longer than first half of next year to kind of clear out the inventory?

祝賀邊緣的彈性，尤其是。我有幾個問題。一，您能否談談您今天看到的庫存情況，將其與過去可能的幾個週期進行比較。什麼 - 根據您看到的晶圓庫以及您從客戶那裡看到的情況，感覺與過去幾個週期相比，庫存肯定要高得多。所以只是想了解為什麼你覺得今年上半年，我們應該——明年的第一年，我們應該在庫存調整範圍內完成？或者你認為清理庫存可能需要比明年上半年更長的時間？

I think the inventory correction already started in the first half of the year and it's continuing. I think it's stretching a little bit longer than what was originally expected. And same as everybody else, we're expecting this to last throughout first half of next year. I think partially, it will be consumed. And also, some of the inventory will be actually replaced by the new products that we introduce in the next year.

我認為庫存調整已經在今年上半年開始，並且還在繼續。我認為它的延伸時間比最初預期的要長一些。和其他人一樣，我們預計這將持續到明年上半年。我認為部分，它會被消耗掉。而且，一些庫存實際上將被我們明年推出的新產品所取代。

Okay. So on your rough guidance or indication for next year being flattish, what is your expectation of industry -- industry is down mid-single digit or something like that? Is that how we're thinking about how much ASC will outgrow the industry next year?

好的。因此，關於您對明年的粗略指導或指標持平，您對行業的期望是什麼——行業下降了中個位數或類似的東西？這就是我們正在考慮明年 ASC 將超過該行業多少？

No, I don't really have a view except like I said, the chance of coming down is higher.

不，我沒有真正的看法，只是像我說的那樣，下來的機會更高。

Understood. And on pricing, should we expect that we should see pricing going back to the -- maybe mid-to-high single-digit kind of decline next year? Or we think when we talk about the more normalized pricing environment, it will still be better than the mid-to-high single-digit kind of price declines that we were used to in the past?

明白了。在定價方面，我們是否應該期望我們應該看到明年定價會回到 - 可能是中高個位數的下降？或者我們認為，當我們談論更加規範化的定價環境時，它仍然會比我們過去習慣的中高個位數的價格下跌要好？

Well, it's going to be a normalized pricing environment. And there will be price hikes throughout the year. But like I mentioned, our position does give us better pricing capability when we start the negotiation process, and we believe that we will have the capability to come up with a suitable pricing strategy that works for both ourselves and our customers. And like I said, like we mentioned, we do believe and we remain very confident that the margin that we're going to have will move up from previously between cycles, 20% to 25%, now to mid 20% to 30%. So we remain confident that we will have a structural margin improvement.

好吧，這將是一個標準化的定價環境。而且全年都會漲價。但就像我提到的，當我們開始談判過程時，我們的立場確實給了我們更好的定價能力，我們相信我們將有能力提出對我們自己和我們的客戶都適用的合適的定價策略。就像我說的，就像我們提到的那樣，我們確實相信並且我們仍然非常有信心，我們將擁有的利潤率將從之前的周期之間上升，從 20% 到 25%，現在上升到 20% 到 30% 的中間。因此，我們仍然相信我們將有結構性的利潤率改善。

(Operator Instructions) Next question is from Szeho Ng of China Renaissance.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自華興資本的 Szeho Ng。

Yes, I have a follow-up. Regarding the China ATM operation, can we assume that we are primarily serving the domestic clients in that factory?

是的，我有後續行動。關於中國 ATM 的運作，我們可以假設我們主要是為那家工廠的國內客戶服務嗎？

Yes. It is more of local customers. And I think the operation there remains to be -- still working quite nicely at this point at a healthy level. We believe that come next year, it will remain to be a resilient operation of ours.

是的。更多的是本地客戶。而且我認為那裡的操作仍然存在 - 在這一點上仍然以健康的水平運行得很好。我們相信，明年，它仍將是我們的彈性運營。

And the other one on the dividend one. Going forward for the dividend policy, would it be more based on the payout or based on the absolute dollar level?

另一個是關於股息的。展望股息政策，它會更多地基於派息還是基於絕對美元水平？

I think the -- it was -- it will be more payout.

我認為 - 它是 - 這將是更多的支出。

Okay. Okay. That means sticking to the ballpark around 50%, right?

好的。好的。這意味著堅持大約 50%，對吧？

I'm sorry?

對不起？

The ballpark is around 50%, yes.

大概是50%左右，是的。

I think we have been paying out roughly 60% to 65%.

我認為我們已經支付了大約 60% 到 65% 的費用。

Okay, all right. Okay, got you.

好吧，好吧。好的，明白了。

Next question is from Mr. Gokul Hariharan of JPMorgan. One follow-up question from my side. Could you talk a little bit about the demand environment in smartphones? Are we seeing mostly demand weakness in the Android camp? Or are we starting to see some demand weakness in the high-end smartphones as well? Is it becoming a little bit more broad-based?

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan 先生。我這邊的一個後續問題。您能談談智能手機的需求環境嗎？我們是否主要看到 Android 陣營的需求疲軟？或者我們是否也開始看到高端智能手機的需求疲軟？它是否變得更加廣泛？

And for your auto and industrial demand, do you now factor in any potential correction in that demand as well next year? Or you think that it will be reasonably resilient through most of next year as well, unlike the rest of the semiconductor industry?

對於您的汽車和工業需求，您現在是否考慮到明年該需求的任何潛在修正？或者你認為它在明年的大部分時間裡也將具有相當的彈性，與半導體行業的其他部分不同？

Yes. I think automotive continues to be the brightest spot at this point. And we do believe that the momentum will continue into next year. In fact, year-to-date, I think our automotive has been growing very fast. We have over 50% growth this year. And from an ATM perspective, I think we'll be able to hit the NT$1 billion revenue mark. And also for EMS, it will be -- it will hit a NT$700 million threshold and we'll continue to be going strong.

是的。我認為汽車仍然是目前最亮的地方。我們確實相信這種勢頭將持續到明年。事實上，今年迄今為止，我認為我們的汽車一直在快速增長。今年我們有超過 50% 的增長。從 ATM 的角度來看，我認為我們將能夠達到 10 億新台幣的收入。而且對於 EMS，它將是 - 它將達到 7 億新台幣的門檻，我們將繼續保持強勁勢頭。

I think in terms of EMS, the original goal was to reach a NT$1 billion mark by 2024, but I think that was -- that's going to accelerate. We have a very, very good chance in 2023, we already reached that goal. In terms of smartphone, I think across the board, I think the Android system continues to be soft. Although in terms of unit growth, in terms of unit volume, it does come down, but the one offsetting factor is the rising IC content in it. So it's going to be softer, but it's not going to crash.

我認為在 EMS 方面，最初的目標是到 2024 年達到 10 億新台幣大關，但我認為那是——這將加速。我們在 2023 年有一個非常非常好的機會，我們已經達到了這個目標。在智能手機方面，我認為全面來說，我認為Android系統仍然是軟的。雖然在單位增長方面，在單位體積方面確實有所下降，但一個抵消因素是其中的IC含量上升。所以它會更柔軟，但不會崩潰。

Our next question is from Randy Abrams of Credit Suisse. Randy?

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的蘭迪艾布拉姆斯。蘭迪？

Actually, just one on the USI, which has had a very strong year. And I think you discussed pull-in and a bit earlier build. Could you give a framework actually for that part of the business for next year, both the first half coming off a high base and then full year? And if you see any just set and also traditionally EMS, what the outlook is?

實際上，只有 USI 的一個，它有一個非常強勁的一年。而且我認為您討論了引入和更早的構建。你能否為明年的那部分業務提供一個框架，上半年從高基數開始，然後是全年？如果您看到任何剛剛設置好的和傳統的 EMS，前景如何？

Well, we're not going to talk about any customer in particular, but I think overall, we remain confident that we'll be seeing growth in our EMS business come next year.

好吧，我們不會特別談論任何客戶，但我認為總的來說，我們仍然相信明年我們的 EMS 業務將會增長。

Okay. So that should still grow. I mean you talked auto still has a lot of growth. But overall, it sounds like better than IC/ATM from what you're seeing?

好的。所以應該還會增長。我的意思是你談到汽車仍然有很大的增長。但總的來說，從您所看到的情況來看，它聽起來比 IC/ATM 更好？

EMS, yes.

EMS，是的。

Okay. The second question, it relates to the China, not much direct impact. Could you discuss just the behavior, and it might be early, but one is if there's any change in more localization, trying to -- like we're domestic customers prioritizing domestic and flipside international customers, if you've seen any inquiry that could be an incremental business that might have been using domestic. I'm just curious if you're seeing ships in either direction there?

好的。第二個問題，它涉及到中國，沒有太大的直接影響。你能否只討論這種行為，可能還為時過早，但一個是如果在更多本地化方面有任何變化，嘗試 - 就像我們是國內客戶，優先考慮國內和另一邊的國際客戶，如果你看到任何可能的詢問是可能一直在使用國內的增量業務。我只是好奇你是否看到那裡有任何方向的船隻？

You mean the local?

你是說本地的？

Yes. Like one would be China based -- your China-based customers, if they start prioritizing it even a bit more local supply. And then the flipside is international customers, if they're a bit worrying, actually move a bit out from domestic OSATs, if there's been any shift?

是的。就像一個基於中國的客戶——如果他們開始優先考慮更多的本地供應，你的中國客戶。然後另一面是國際客戶，如果他們有點擔心，實際上會從國內 OSAT 中移出一點，如果有任何轉變？

Well, I think the customer come to us regardless it's Chinese customers or other customers, they come to us for value, is not coming for geopolitical. This is a business. It's not a political decision here. I think right now we're seeing that our Chinese customers are giving us normal forecasts, there's not much of a movement there because of the tension.

好吧，我認為客戶來找我們，不管是中國客戶還是其他客戶，他們來找我們是為了價值，而不是為了地緣政治。這是一門生意。這不是一個政治決定。我認為現在我們看到我們的中國客戶正在給我們正常的預測，由於緊張局勢，那裡沒有太大的動靜。

Okay. No, that's good. And it sounds like not much movement internationally either. So it's -- because it's kind of targeted on certain parts, so --

好的。不，那很好。聽起來國際上也沒有太大的動靜。所以它 - 因為它是針對某些部分的，所以 -

No, I think it's up and down, still going --

不，我認為它有起有落，仍在繼續——

With the normal --

用正常的——

With the normal industry situation. Okay. Great. That's helpful.

與正常的行業形勢。好的。偉大的。這很有幫助。

There is no more question.

沒有更多的問題。

Okay, if there is no more question, I will end the session. And I think there's a lot of challenges ahead of us, but we are confident that we can weather this very nicely. And given our leading position, we are very confident that we will continue to have a healthy year in front of us. Thank you very much.

好的，如果沒有更多問題，我將結束會議。我認為我們面前有很多挑戰，但我們有信心能夠很好地度過難關。鑑於我們的領先地位，我們非常有信心，我們將繼續在我們面前度過一個健康的一年。非常感謝。