日月光投資控股 (ASX) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello. I am Ken Hsiang, the Head of Investor Relations for ASE Technology Holdings. Welcome to our Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Release. Thank you for attending our conference call today. Please refer to our Safe Harbor notice on Page 2. All participants consent to having their voices and questions broadcast via participation in this event. If participants do not consent, please disconnect at this time.

你好。我是 ASE Technology Holdings 投資者關係主管 Ken Hsiang。歡迎來到我們的 2022 年第二季度收益發布。感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。請參閱我們在第 2 頁上的安全港通知。所有參與者都同意通過參與本次活動來廣播他們的聲音和問題。如果參與者不同意，請在此時斷開連接。

I would like to remind everyone that the presentation that follows may contain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a high degree of risk, and our actual results may differ materially. For the purposes of this presentation, our dollar figures are generally stated in New Taiwan dollars, unless otherwise indicated. As a Taiwan-based company, our financials are presented in accordance with Taiwan IFRS. Results presented using Taiwan IFRS may differ materially, from results using other accounting standards, including those presented by our subsidiary using Chinese GAAP. Intercompany transactions between our ATM and EMS businesses have been eliminated during consolidation.

我想提醒大家，下面的演示文稿可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述存在高度風險，我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。就本報告而言，除非另有說明，否則我們的美元數字通常以新台幣表示。作為一家台灣公司，我們的財務按照台灣國際財務報告準則呈報。使用台灣國際財務報告準則呈現的結果可能與使用其他會計準則的結果存在重大差異，包括我們的子公司使用中國公認會計準則呈現的結果。我們的 ATM 和 EMS 業務之間的公司間交易已在合併期間消除。

For today's call, I am joined by Dr. Tien Wu, our COO; and Joseph Tung, our CFO. During the call, Dr. Wu will first provide a midyear update and overall industry outlook. I will quickly go over our financial results, and Joseph will provide the third quarter outlook. Tien and Joseph will both be available to answer questions during the Q&A session that follows. Also, as a reminder, we disposed off ASE Inc.'s China sites at the end of 2021. For our financial results presented here, in addition to our legal entity results, we have included information on a pro forma basis, or as if the disposition of ASE Inc.'s China sites had already occurred. We believe that pro forma results give additional meaningful information, which would assist in providing comparability of our financial results.

對於今天的電話會議，我們的首席運營官 Tien Wu 博士加入了我的行列；和我們的首席財務官 Joseph Tung。在電話會議中，吳博士將首先提供年中更新和整體行業展望。我將快速回顧我們的財務業績，約瑟夫將提供第三季度的展望。 Tien 和 Joseph 都將在隨後的問答環節中回答問題。此外，提醒一下，我們在 2021 年底出售了 ASE Inc. 在中國的工廠。對於我們在此展示的財務業績，除了我們的法人實體業績外，我們還包含了形式上的信息，或者好像ASE Inc. 的中國工廠的處置已經發生。我們相信，備考結果提供了額外的有意義的信息，這將有助於提供我們財務結果的可比性。

For the purposes of this presentation, including that of Dr. Wu's, we will generally discuss our full company and ATM second quarter results sequentially compared with first quarter legal entity results, and year-over-year compared with pro forma second quarter 2021. Dr. Tien Wu will now present our midyear update. Dr. Wu?

出於本次演講的目的，包括吳博士的演講，我們一般將按順序討論我們的完整公司和 ATM 第二季度業績與第一季度法人實體業績相比，以及與 2021 年第二季度備考相比的同比。 . 天武現在將展示我們的年中更新。吳醫生？

Good afternoon. I would like to give you some highlights. First, I would like to talk about the -- our first half '22 and second quarter performance. Our second quarter ASE Holdco revenue grew 27% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms. First half '22 revenues grew 28% year-over-year. As Ken already pointed out, on the pro forma basis. Second quarter '22 ASE ATM revenues grew 25% year-over-year, while the first half '22 revenue grew 25% year-over-year.

下午好。我想給你一些亮點。首先，我想談談我們 22 年上半年和第二季度的表現。以美元計算，我們第二季度 ASE Holdco 的收入同比增長 27%。 22 年上半年收入同比增長 28%。正如肯已經指出的那樣，在備考基礎上。 22 年第二季度 ASE ATM 收入同比增長 25%，而 22 年上半年收入同比增長 25%。

First half '22, we saw advanced packaging revenue up 48% year-over-year. First half '22 ASE HoldCo Automotive revenue grew 64% year-over-year. While the ATM automotive revenue in the first half grew 54% year-over-year. We do expect the momentum to continue into the second half, as well as '23 and '24.

22 年上半年，我們看到先進封裝收入同比增長 48%。 22 年上半年 ASE HoldCo Automotive 收入同比增長 64%。上半年 ATM 汽車收入同比增長 54%。我們確實預計這種勢頭將持續到下半年以及 23 年和 24 年。

First half '22 HoldCo operating margin improved 2.3 percentage points, out of which 0.5% were from the favorable currency. First half '22 ATM operating margin increased 3.4 percentage points, out of which 0.6 percentage points were from the currency.

22 年上半年，HoldCo 的營業利潤率提高了 2.3 個百分點，其中 0.5% 來自有利的貨幣。 22年上半年ATM營業利潤率增長3.4個百分點，其中0.6個百分點來自貨幣。

Let me turn to the next page. I would like to give you a highlight of the 2022 full year. First of all, our full year outlook is on track. The overall market is undergoing inventory correction, with some sectors more aggressive than the others. However, we're still seeing some sectors remain constrained. With our diversified customer portfolio and manufacture flexibility, we're seeing a solid second half '22 with quarter-over-quarter growth of our HoldCo revenue.

讓我翻到下一頁。我想給你一個 2022 年全年的亮點。首先，我們的全年展望步入正軌。整個市場正在經歷庫存調整，一些行業比其他行業更具侵略性。然而，我們仍然看到一些行業仍然受到限制。憑藉我們多元化的客戶組合和製造靈活性，我們看到 22 年下半年穩健，我們的 HoldCo 收入環比增長。

2022 full year ATM revenue year-over-year growth will be 2x of the logic semiconductor industry, with EMS also seeing solid top line growth. We do expect further margin expansion, for both ATM and EMS business comparing to 2021.

2022 年全年 ATM 收入同比增長將是邏輯半導體行業的 2 倍，而 EMS 也實現了穩健的收入增長。與 2021 年相比，我們確實預計 ATM 和 EMS 業務的利潤率將進一步擴大。

The next page, I would like to give you some highlights for the accomplishment for the past few years. Namely, I would like to give you a structural improvement of our efficiency and margins. For the past 2 years, we have made great strides in the ASE-SPIL synergy in R&D, operation, capacity planning, business consolidation and also the customer portfolio calibration and procurement. With that, the synergy is offering us some percentage of margin improvement.

下一頁，我想為您介紹過去幾年的成就。也就是說，我想給你一個我們效率和利潤的結構性改進。在過去的兩年中，我們在 ASE-SPIL 協同研發、運營、產能規劃、業務整合以及客戶組合校準和採購方面取得了長足的進步。有了這個，協同作用為我們提供了一定比例的利潤率改善。

We also made a lot of effort in the automation. The automation has improved significantly, our ability to entertain high volume, high reliability business has also improved our manufacturing efficiency, cost structure and flexibility. We do see increasing demand in multi-die, co-packaging, and that trend is adding the complexity of ATM know-how. And therefore, we believe ASE's value in the total supply chain at a system level.

我們在自動化方面也做了很多努力。自動化程度顯著提高，我們處理大批量、高可靠性業務的能力也提高了我們的製造效率、成本結構和靈活性。我們確實看到對多芯片、聯合封裝的需求不斷增加，而這一趨勢正在增加 ATM 技術的複雜性。因此，我們相信 ASE 在整個供應鏈中的價值在系統層面。

With the above 3, the synergy, automation and also the value -- we do believe that we have a structural improvement of our margin structure in mid-single digit. That is, going forward, we will see higher peaks and shallower troughs in future cycles, comparing to our past performance.

有了以上 3 點，協同作用、自動化以及價值——我們確實相信我們的利潤率結構在中個位數上得到了結構性改善。也就是說，展望未來，與我們過去的表現相比，我們將在未來的周期中看到更高的峰值和更淺的低谷。

Now the last page, I would like to give you some business outlook. For next year, I know many of you are concerned about the business state. It is too early to comment on the macro-environment and potential end market demand shift. However, the general perception is, seasonality will resume in Q1 2023. We believe back-end capacity is in a healthy position, because if you look at the overall investment for the past few years, in back end, the incremental back-end capacity added, is relatively low when compared with the front end, and especially considering back-end investment are needed for technology migration, as well as volume expansion.

現在是最後一頁，我想給你一些商業前景。對於明年，我知道你們中的許多人都在關注商業狀況。現在評論宏觀環境和潛在的終端市場需求變化還為時過早。然而，普遍的看法是，季節性將在 2023 年第一季度恢復。我們認為後端產能處於健康狀態，因為如果你看過去幾年的整體投資，在後端，增量的後端產能此外，與前端相比，相對較低，特別是考慮到技術遷移需要後端投資，以及體積擴張。

When I talk about technology migration, I was implying to density, package type, as well as multi-die. That is for the same equipment in the advanced technology, you might only be able to support fewer units due to the complexity and density. We are also seeing increasing resource allocation or resource demand needed for NPI after more than 2 years of COVID lockdown. The NPI trend is very healthy. We're monitoring the NPI trend from all customers, because that is a key indicator, which can set our direction for future capacity investment, planning, equipment-type upgrades, automation and technology roadmap.

當我談到技術遷移時，我指的是密度、封裝類型以及多芯片。也就是說，對於先進技術中的相同設備，由於復雜性和密度，您可能只能支持更少的單元。在 COVID 鎖定 2 年多之後，我們還看到 NPI 所需的資源分配或資源需求不斷增加。 NPI 趨勢非常健康。我們正在監控所有客戶的 NPI 趨勢，因為這是一個關鍵指標，可以為我們未來的產能投資、規劃、設備類型升級、自動化和技術路線圖設定方向。

Lastly, we are optimistic that ASE's capacity utilization will stay at a higher level, given our customer engagement, LTA, technology, automation leadership, manufacturing scale, and as I pointed out in the last few bullets, relevance to all NPIs.

最後，鑑於我們的客戶參與度、LTA、技術、自動化領導地位、製造規模，以及正如我在最後幾條中指出的與所有 NPI 的相關性，我們樂觀地認為 ASE 的產能利用率將保持在更高水平。

Thank you. With that, I'll pass to Ken.

謝謝你。有了這個，我會傳給肯。

Thank you, Tian. Let's quickly go over the second quarter financial results. Please turn to Page 7, where you will find our second quarter consolidated results with legal entity and pro forma basis comparisons. For the second quarter, we recorded fully diluted EPS of $3.61 and basic EPS of $3.69. Consolidated net revenue increased 11% sequentially and 33% year-over-year. We had a gross profit of $34.4 billion, with a gross margin of 21.4%. Our gross margin increased by 1.7 percentage points sequentially and 2 percentage points year-over-year.

謝謝你，田。讓我們快速回顧一下第二季度的財務業績。請轉至第 7 頁，您將在其中找到我們與法人實體和備考基礎比較的第二季度綜合結果。對於第二季度，我們記錄了 3.61 美元的完全攤薄每股收益和 3.69 美元的基本每股收益。綜合淨收入環比增長 11%，同比增長 33%。我們的毛利潤為 344 億美元，毛利率為 21.4%。我們的毛利率環比增長 1.7 個百分點，同比增長 2 個百分點。

The sequential margin increase is primarily attributable to favorable currency conditions within our ATM and EMS businesses. From an annual perspective, the margin improvements are primarily the result of higher profitability, scale efficiency and a favorable currency environment within our ATM business and scale efficiencies within our EMS business.

利潤率的連續增長主要歸因於我們的 ATM 和 EMS 業務的有利貨幣條件。從年度角度來看，利潤率的提高主要是由於我們的 ATM 業務中更高的盈利能力、規模效率和有利的貨幣環境以及我們的 EMS 業務中的規模效率。

Our operating expenses increased sequentially by $1.4 billion during the second quarter, to $13.8 billion, primarily as a result of higher bonus and profit-sharing expenses during the quarter. On a year-over-year basis, our operating expenses increased by $2.7 billion, mainly from the increase of scale, in both our ATM and EMS businesses. Our operating expense percentage stayed flat sequentially at 8.6%. On an annual basis, our operating expense percentage declined 0.6 percentage points from 9.2%. Improvements in operating expense percentage were achieved as a result of operating leverage created. Operating profit of $20.6 billion, up $4.5 billion sequentially and $8.2 billion year-over-year.

我們的運營費用在第二季度環比增長 14 億美元，達到 138 億美元，主要是由於本季度獎金和利潤分享費用增加。與去年同期相比，我們的運營費用增加了 27 億美元，主要是由於我們的 ATM 和 EMS 業務的規模增加。我們的營業費用百分比環比持平於 8.6%。按年度計算，我們的營業費用百分比從 9.2% 下降了 0.6 個百分點。由於創造了經營槓桿，經營費用百分比有所提高。營業利潤為 206 億美元，環比增長 45 億美元，同比增長 82 億美元。

Operating margin was 12.8%, increasing 1.6 percentage points sequentially. Operating margin increased 2.5 percentage points on an annual basis, as a result of higher loading and increased profitability. During the quarter, we had a net non-operating gain of $0.5 billion. The non-operating gain was primarily from our net foreign exchange hedging activities, offset in part by net interest expense of $0.7 billion. Tax expense for the quarter was $4.5 billion. The effective tax rate for the second quarter was 21.2%.

營業利潤率為12.8%，環比提高1.6個百分點。由於負荷增加和盈利能力提高，營業利潤率每年增長 2.5 個百分點。本季度，我們的非經營性淨收益為 5 億美元。營業外收益主要來自我們的淨外匯對沖活動，部分被 7 億美元的淨利息支出所抵消。本季度的稅收支出為 45 億美元。第二季度的有效稅率為21.2%。

During the quarter, we saw slightly higher tax expenses, primarily related to undistributed earnings and treasury activities. We expect a full year effective tax rate of between 20% to 21%. Net income for the quarter was $16 billion, representing an improvement of $3.1 billion sequentially and $5.7 billion year-over-year. The U.S. dollar strengthened against the NT dollar and the Chinese yuan during the second quarter. Sequentially, we estimate that currency fluctuation had a 1.6 percentage point beneficial impact to our holding company gross margin. From a year-over-year perspective, we estimate that currency fluctuation had a 1.4 percentage point positive impact to gross margin.

在本季度，我們看到稅收支出略有增加，主要與未分配收益和資金活動有關。我們預計全年有效稅率在 20% 至 21% 之間。本季度淨收入為 160 億美元，環比增長 31 億美元，同比增長 57 億美元。第二季度美元兌新台幣和人民幣走強。因此，我們估計貨幣波動對我們控股公司的毛利率產生了 1.6 個百分點的有利影響。從同比來看，我們估計貨幣波動對毛利率產生了 1.4 個百分點的積極影響。

On the bottom of the page, we provide key P&L line items without the inclusion of PPA-related expenses. Consolidated gross profit, excluding PPA expenses, would be $35.3 billion with a 22% gross margin. Operating profit would be $21.8 billion with an operating margin of 13.6%. Net profit would be $17.2 billion with a net margin of 10.7%. Basic EPS, excluding PPA expenses, would be $3.97.

在頁面底部，我們提供了關鍵的損益表項目，但不包括與 PPA 相關的費用。不包括 PPA 費用的合併毛利潤為 353 億美元，毛利率為 22%。營業利潤為 218 億美元，營業利潤率為 13.6%。淨利潤為 172 億美元，淨利潤率為 10.7%。不包括 PPA 費用的基本每股收益為 3.97 美元。

On Page 8 is a graphical presentation of our consolidated financial performance. On Page 9 is our ATM P&L, with historical results on a legal entity and pro forma basis. It is worth noting here, that the ATM revenue reported here contains revenue eliminated at the holding company level, related to intercompany transactions between our ATM and EMS businesses.

第 8 頁是我們綜合財務業績的圖表展示。第 9 頁是我們的 ATM 損益表，其中包含法人實體和備考基礎上的歷史結果。值得注意的是，此處報告的 ATM 收入包含在控股公司層面消除的收入，與我們的 ATM 和 EMS 業務之間的公司間交易有關。

During the second quarter, our ATM business ramped up significantly ahead of where we thought it would. The revenue level achieved in the second quarter is near our original estimation of our third quarter revenues. It almost goes without saying, that capacities were tight with overall demand for our services remaining strong during the quarter. From the cost perspective, and as we mentioned last quarter, we encountered some higher costs of operations during the quarter, namely logistics, labor scarcity, lower efficiencies from COVID and higher energy costs. These incremental costs offset the scale efficiencies that were created during the quarter going forward, while costs related to COVID and labor shortage issues appear to be more under control, energy costs appear to be more ongoing.

在第二季度，我們的 ATM 業務大幅增長，超出了我們的預期。第二季度實現的收入水平接近我們對第三季度收入的最初估計。幾乎不用說，由於本季度對我們服務的整體需求保持強勁，產能緊張。從成本的角度來看，正如我們上個季度提到的那樣，我們在本季度遇到了一些較高的運營成本，即物流、勞動力短缺、COVID 效率降低和能源成本增加。這些增量成本抵消了本季度未來創造的規模效率，而與 COVID 和勞動力短缺問題相關的成本似乎更加可控，能源成本似乎更加持續。

For the second quarter, revenues for our ATM business were a record $95 billion, up $11 billion from the previous quarter and up $22.3 billion from the same period last year. This represents a 13% increase sequentially and a 31% increase year-over-year. Our ATM revenues came in ahead of our expectations, due to broad-based higher-than-expected loading.

第二季度，我們的 ATM 業務收入達到創紀錄的 950 億美元，比上一季度增加 110 億美元，比去年同期增加 223 億美元。這意味著環比增長 13%，同比增長 31%。由於普遍高於預期的裝載量，我們的 ATM 收入超出了我們的預期。

Gross profit for our ATM business was $27.8 billion, up $4.7 billion sequentially and up $8.9 billion year-over-year. Gross profit margin for our ATM business was 29.2%, up 1.7 percentage points sequentially and up 3.3 percentage points year-over-year. The sequential gross margin improvement was primarily due to NT dollar depreciation. The year-over-year gross profit margin improvement was primarily attributable to NT dollar depreciation and scale efficiencies. During the second quarter, operating expenses were $9.8 billion, up $0.7 billion sequentially and $2 billion year-over-year. Our operating expense percentage was 10.3%, down 0.5 percentage points sequentially and year-over-year. During the second quarter, operating profit was $18 billion, representing an increase of $4 billion quarter-over-quarter and an improvement of $7 billion year-over-year. Operating margin was 18.9%, improving 2.2 percentage points sequentially and 3.7 percentage points year-over-year.

我們 ATM 業務的毛利潤為 278 億美元，環比增長 47 億美元，同比增長 89 億美元。 ATM業務毛利率為29.2%，環比上升1.7個百分點，同比上升3.3個百分點。毛利率環比改善主要是由於新台幣貶值。毛利率同比增長主要歸功於新台幣貶值和規模效益。第二季度，運營費用為 98 億美元，環比增長 7 億美元，同比增長 20 億美元。我們的營業費用百分比為 10.3%，環比和同比下降 0.5 個百分點。第二季度，營業利潤為 180 億美元，環比增長 40 億美元，同比增長 70 億美元。營業利潤率為18.9%，環比提高2.2個百分點，同比提高3.7個百分點。

The NT dollar depreciating against the U.S. dollar had a positive 2.3 percentage point impact on our ATM sequential margins. On a year-over-year basis, we estimate that the strengthening U.S. dollar had a 2 percentage point positive impact to margins. Without the impact of PPA-related depreciation and amortization, ATM gross profit margin would be 30.2% and operating profit margin would be 20.1%.

新台幣兌美元貶值對我們的 ATM 連續利潤率產生了 2.3 個百分點的積極影響。與去年同期相比，我們估計美元走強對利潤率產生了 2 個百分點的積極影響。剔除與 PPA 相關的折舊和攤銷的影響，ATM 毛利率為 30.2%，營業利潤率為 20.1%。

On Page 10, you'll find a graphical representation of our pro forma ATM P&L. On Page 11 is our pro forma ATM revenue by market segment. The market segments were unchanged as compared with the previous quarter. And though the automotive segment is not separately displayed here, it continues to outpace the other market segments performances.

在第 10 頁，您將找到我們的備考 ATM 損益表的圖形表示。第 11 頁是我們按細分市場劃分的備考 ATM 收入。細分市場與上一季度相比沒有變化。雖然這裡沒有單獨展示汽車細分市場，但它繼續超過其他細分市場的表現。

On Page 12, you will find our pro forma ATM revenue by service type. There was a small move, in which our wire bond products grew slightly faster than our other product lines. This was primarily the result of seasonality of underlying products.

在第 12 頁，您會發現我們按服務類型劃分的備考 ATM 收入。有一個小動作，我們的引線鍵合產品的增長速度略快於我們的其他產品線。這主要是基礎產品季節性的結果。

On Page 13, you can see the second quarter results of our EMS business. During the quarter, demand was stronger than anticipated, driven by stronger-than-expected demand for both our traditional EMS and SiP services. Overall, operating conditions started improving halfway through the quarter. However, China's COVID mitigation strategy continues to have spotty impacts throughout our EMS business. And though the situation is still somewhat dynamic, our EMS factories are poised and ready for the third quarter seasonal uptick.

在第 13 頁，您可以看到我們 EMS 業務的第二季度業績。在本季度，由於對我們的傳統 EMS 和 SiP 服務的需求強於預期，需求強於預期。總體而言，經營狀況在本季度中途開始改善。然而，中國的 COVID 緩解戰略繼續對我們的 EMS 業務產生不穩定的影響。儘管情況仍然有些動態，但我們的 EMS 工廠已準備好迎接第三季度的季節性增長。

During the second quarter, EMS revenues increased $5 billion or 8% sequentially and increased $17 billion or 35% year-over-year. Revenues were somewhat ahead of where we expected, primarily as a result of higher-than-expected SiP and traditional EMS business. Overall, profitability for our EMS business improved, with gross margin increasing 1.2 percentage points to 10% and reaching our 4% operating margin target. On the bottom half of the page, you will find a graphical representation of our EMS revenue by application. The reduction in the communications related segment, is primarily due to seasonality.

第二季度，EMS 收入環比增長 50 億美元或 8%，同比增長 170 億美元或 35%。收入略高於我們的預期，主要是由於高於預期的 SiP 和傳統 EMS 業務。總體而言，我們的 EMS 業務的盈利能力有所改善，毛利率增長 1.2 個百分點至 10%，並達到我們 4% 的營業利潤率目標。在頁面的下半部分，您會發現我們的 EMS 收入（按應用程序）的圖形表示。通信相關部門的減少主要是由於季節性因素。

On Page 14, you will find key line items from our balance sheet. At the end of the quarter, we had cash, cash equivalents and current financial assets of $79 billion. Our total interest-bearing debt was $218.3 billion. Total unused credit lines amounted to $312.4 billion. Our EBITDA for the quarter was $35.2 billion. Net debt to equity was 50%.

在第 14 頁，您將找到我們資產負債表中的關鍵項目。在本季度末，我們擁有 790 億美元的現金、現金等價物和流動金融資產。我們的有息債務總額為 2183 億美元。未使用的信貸額度總額為 3124 億美元。我們本季度的 EBITDA 為 352 億美元。淨債務權益為 50%。

On Page 15, you will find our equipment capital expenditures. Machinery and equipment capital expenditures for the second quarter in U.S. dollars totaled USD515 million, of which USD290 million were used in packaging operations, USD161 million in test operations, USD53 million in EMS operations and USD11 million in interconnect material operations and others. We continue to provide our EBITDA in U.S. dollars here as a reference. We believe that the company's EBITDA relative to our equipment CapEx, serves as a key financial performance metric for the company. For the quarter, EBITDA was USD1.2 billion.

在第 15 頁，您將找到我們的設備資本支出。第二季度機器設備資本支出以美元計為5.15億美元，其中2.9億美元用於封裝業務，1.61億美元用於測試業務，5300萬美元用於EMS業務，1100萬美元用於互連材料業務等。我們繼續在此處以美元提供我們的 EBITDA 作為參考。我們認為，公司的 EBITDA 相對於我們的設備資本支出，是公司的一項關鍵財務業績指標。本季度，EBITDA 為 12 億美元。

Joseph Tung will now present our outlook. Joseph?

Joseph Tung 現在將介紹我們的展望。約瑟夫？

Thank you, Ken. Before I give the specifics, let me reiterate that despite the macro challenges, including the pandemic and related lockdowns, Ukraine war, supply chain disruptions, [worldwide] inflation, escalating energy costs and segment inventory corrections, we were still able to significantly outgrow our second quarter estimates and reach close to our anticipated peak revenue for the year.

謝謝你，肯。在我給出具體細節之前，讓我重申一下，儘管存在宏觀挑戰，包括大流行和相關的封鎖、烏克蘭戰爭、供應鏈中斷、[全球]通貨膨脹、能源成本上升和部門庫存調整，我們仍然能夠大大超過我們的第二季度估計並接近我們預期的今年收入峰值。

As a result, we will see a more linearized revenue outlook and continue to see a higher operating cost structure for the remainder of the year. Having said that, our guidance for the third quarter is as follows: for our ATM business in U.S. dollar terms, our ATM third quarter 2022 business levels should be slightly above second quarter 2022 levels. On a pro forma basis, our ATM third quarter 2022 gross margin, should be similar with our fourth quarter 2021 gross margin. And as a reference, our fourth quarter 2021 gross margin was 28.5%.

因此，我們將看到更加線性化的收入前景，並在今年剩餘時間內繼續看到更高的運營成本結構。話雖如此，我們對第三季度的指導如下：對於我們以美元計算的 ATM 業務，我們 2022 年第三季度的 ATM 業務水平應略高於 2022 年第二季度的水平。在備考基礎上，我們的 ATM 2022 年第三季度毛利率應該與我們 2021 年第四季度的毛利率相似。作為參考，我們 2021 年第四季度的毛利率為 28.5%。

Now for our EMS business, in U.S. dollar terms, our EMS third quarter 2022 business sequential growth, should be similar with the same period last year. And again, as a reference, the third quarter last year's growth rate was up 25%.

現在對於我們的 EMS 業務，以美元計算，我們 2022 年第三季度的 EMS 業務環比增長應該與去年同期相似。再次作為參考，去年第三季度的增長率為 25%。

Our EMS third quarter 2022 operating margin should be similar to second quarter 2022 levels. In our second quarter 2022, operating margin was 4.0%.

我們的 EMS 2022 年第三季度營業利潤率應與 2022 年第二季度的水平相似。在我們 2022 年第二季度，營業利潤率為 4.0%。

Now with that we'll open the floor for questions.

現在，我們將開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Mr. Randy Abrams. Randy?

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Randy Abrams 先生。蘭迪？

Okay. Yes. Good results. I wanted to ask the first question, just a little more on the guidance. For the third quarter, it's IC ATM high base. Second quarter did well. But the factor for the small sequential growth, is that -- how much is capacity limited that you're tight on capacity, and how much is it -- you're seeing any moderation or slowdown in certain applications?

好的。是的。好結果。我想問第一個問題，關於指導的更多信息。第三季度是IC ATM 高基數。第二季表現不錯。但是，小幅連續增長的因素是——容量有限，你的容量緊張，有多少——你看到某些應用程序出現放緩或放緩？

Our utilization -- our loading remains to be high. And we do see this year, the revenue on a quarter-to-quarter basis seems to be more linearized; because in the second quarter, we have better-than-expected revenue stream coming in. And although there are some inventory corrections in different sectors, but there are also other sectors that remain very, very strong. So overall, I think it's not a capacity constraint kind of situation. But overall, the market movement that is causing the year to be a more linearized revenue stream.

我們的利用率——我們的負載仍然很高。我們確實看到今年的季度收入似乎更加線性化；因為在第二季度，我們的收入流好於預期。雖然不同行業存在一些庫存調整，但也有其他行業仍然非常非常強勁。所以總的來說，我認為這不是一種能力限制的情況。但總體而言，導致這一年收入流更加線性化的市場運動。

Okay. In the prepared remarks, you talked early about -- we'll get back to return to the first quarter, where we traditionally have that seasonality, I think like high single, low teens decline. If you could give an initial view between that fourth quarter, some years, I think in the middle of the year, you've had enough confidence to say, IC ATM would grow in fourth quarter, I guess, for this type of year, do you still see linear -- like from the high base, a little bit of growth, or would we start some inventory correction in the fourth quarter?

好的。在準備好的評論中，您早早談到了——我們將回到第一季度，我們傳統上具有季節性，我認為像高單身，低青少年下降。如果你能給出第四季度之間的初步看法，有些年份，我認為在年中，你有足夠的信心說，IC ATM 將在第四季度增長，我猜，對於這種類型的年份，你仍然看到線性 - 比如從高基數開始，一點點增長，還是我們會在第四季度開始一些庫存調整？

I think for the second half of the year -- again, the revenue seems to be more linearized, and in the fourth quarter, we're expecting, at this point, a similar quarter to third quarter, although there is still some opportunity for further growth on a sequential basis.

我認為今年下半年 - 再次，收入似乎更加線性化，在第四季度，我們預計此時與第三季度類似，儘管仍有一些機會環比進一步增長。

Okay. And one further -- 2 follow-ups on growth. For the applications, I mean we've had a lot of commentary about almost 2 cycles, but the consumer cycle smartphone TV, PC, that that's the softness. I'm curious where you're talking about inventory correction, is it those areas that you're seeing it? And then the other commentary on demand outlook, it looks like EMS after a strong second quarter is also quite strong. Is that a function of any shift like earlier builds or additional projects this year, or other factors driving the good strength in EMS?

好的。還有一個——關於增長的 2 次跟進。對於應用程序，我的意思是我們有很多關於近兩個週期的評論，但消費者周期智能手機電視，PC，這就是柔軟度。我很好奇您在哪裡談論庫存校正，是您看到的那些區域嗎？然後是其他關於需求前景的評論，看起來 EMS 在經歷了強勁的第二季度之後也相當強勁。這是像今年早些時候的建設或其他項目這樣的轉變，還是其他推動 EMS 良好實力的因素？

Well, let me comment on the sector inventory controls. And I think there's enough conversation out there to talk about the consumer sector inventory control, I will not further elaborate. So we're seeing some sectors still very constrained. And then the -- in the data centers, in the networking, high-performance computing and, of course, automotive. So we will continue to see this kind of a sector fluctuation rotation. In terms of the EMS strengths, the -- in addition to our normal SiP projects, I think this year, we do have a good amount of automotive and the other different type of EMS projects. So the answer is yes. We do have some new wins.

好吧，讓我評論一下行業庫存控制。而且我認為那裡有足夠的對話來談論消費部門的庫存控制，我不會進一步詳細說明。因此，我們看到一些行業仍然非常受限。然後是數據中心、網絡、高性能計算，當然還有汽車。因此，我們將繼續看到這種板塊波動輪動。就 EMS 實力而言，除了我們正常的 SiP 項目外，我認為今年我們確實有大量汽車和其他不同類型的 EMS 項目。所以答案是肯定的。我們確實有一些新的勝利。

Our next question is from Mr. Gokul Hariharan.

我們的下一個問題來自 Gokul Hariharan 先生。

Yes. So my first question, could we talk a little bit about what are you seeing for our utilizations by the 3 big capacity categories, testing, wirebonding and for advanced packaging? Are we starting to see any slack in any of these areas right now?

是的。所以我的第一個問題是，我們能否談談您對我們在 3 大容量類別（測試、引線鍵合和先進封裝）的利用率的看法？我們現在是否開始看到這些領域的任何鬆懈？

I think the overall packaging utilization remains the same as first quarter, at about 80% to 85%. And the same pattern will be going into third quarter as well. And also for testing, the overall utilization still remains to be above 80%, and that will also go into third quarter as well.

我認為整體包裝利用率與第一季度持平，約為 80% 至 85%。同樣的模式也將進入第三季度。而且在測試方面，整體利用率仍然保持在 80% 以上，這也將持續到第三季度。

In terms of packaging, I think the overall loading is higher in the more advanced packaging, whereas the wire bonding, it's still growing and it's still quite full, but comparing to the advanced packaging, I think advanced packaging seems to have a stronger momentum.

在封裝方面，我認為更高級的封裝整體負載更高，而引線鍵合，它還在增長，仍然相當飽滿，但與高級封裝相比，我認為高級封裝似乎有更強的動力。

Got it. So for wirebonding, I think the industry overall and ASE also saw some increase in prices, given the tight capacity last year?

知道了。那麼對於引線鍵合，我認為整個行業和 ASE 的價格也出現了一些上漲，因為去年產能緊張？

Are you talking about the...

你說的是...

Given some slack, customers going -- yes, exactly.

考慮到一些懈怠，客戶會 - 是的，完全正確。

Well, we're seeing a stable pricing environment. In other words, between the -- if you're asking if there are any structural negotiation on the price down, the answer is no. We do see a stable pricing environment across all of the service category. I think we expect that between the Q3 as well as Q4. And I think this scenario might well last into 2023.

好吧，我們看到了一個穩定的定價環境。換句話說，如果你問是否有任何關於價格下降的結構性談判，答案是否定的。我們確實看到所有服務類別的定價環境穩定。我認為我們預計第三季度和第四季度之間會出現這種情況。我認為這種情況很可能會持續到 2023 年。

Maybe one more question on that. And I think you have long-term loading agreements with a lot of customers signed last year, as well as early this year. Are any customers starting to discuss any changes to these, I mean, similar to what we are heading in the foundry side, where there are some LTAs being renegotiated?

也許還有一個問題。而且我認為您與許多客戶在去年以及今年年初簽署了長期裝載協議。是否有任何客戶開始討論對這些的任何更改，我的意思是，類似於我們在代工方面的進展，那裡有一些 LTA 正在重新談判？

I think every company is signing LTA in all different forms. When we sign the LTA, typically is with the NPI loading agreement, as well as the pricing stability for specific lines. We don't sign the LTA for some lines, but we do sign LTA for - -like 100% LTA for some lines. And right now, it's mixed. To answer your question, the short answer is no, we don't have any customer coming back to renegotiate the LTA.

我認為每家公司都在以各種不同的形式簽署長期協議。當我們簽署 LTA 時，通常是與 NPI 裝載協議，以及特定線路的定價穩定性。我們不會為某些線路簽署 LTA，但我們會為某些線路簽署 LTA，例如 100% LTA。而現在，情況喜憂參半。要回答您的問題，簡短的回答是否定的，我們沒有任何客戶回來重新協商 LTA。

Next question is from Mr. Szeho Ng of China Renaissance. Szeho?

下一個問題來自華興資本的吳思豪先生。思豪？

Sorry, yes. I unmute myself. Actually, 2 questions from my side. First one regarding the dividend policy, yes, because the company paid a pretty high dividend this year. So I just want to know the company's dividend policy or the philosophy going forward?

對不起，是的。我自己取消靜音。實際上，我這邊有兩個問題。第一個關於股息政策，是的，因為該公司今年支付了相當高的股息。所以我只想知道公司的股息政策或未來的理念？

I think we will -- I think the -- in terms of the dividend, amount is higher than previous years, it's because -- but in terms of the payout ratio, it's pretty much the same. And I anticipate that we will continue this payout percentage going forward. Although part of the profit that we generated through the sale of the sites, some of that earnings, we will maybe have a few -- maybe some percentage of that profit will be given out in the following years.

我認為我們會 - 我認為 - 就股息而言，金額高於前幾年，這是因為 - 但就派息率而言，它幾乎相同。我預計我們將繼續保持這種支付百分比。雖然我們通過出售網站產生的部分利潤，其中一些收益，我們可能會有一些 - 也許這些利潤的一部分將在接下來的幾年中發放。

Okay. All right. Yes. And roughly speaking, what percentage of our capacity right now is under LTA agreement?

好的。好的。是的。粗略地說，我們現在有多少百分比的產能是在 LTA 協議下的？

About 70%.

約70%。

All right. Okay. last one, yes, on the CapEx front, I think we are sticking to the $2 billion figure for this year, right? But how does the percentage breakdown amongst different divisions? CapEx percentage breakdown?

好的。好的。最後一個，是的，在資本支出方面，我認為今年我們將堅持 20 億美元的數字，對嗎？但是不同部門之間的百分比是如何劃分的呢？資本支出百分比細分？

Okay. I think overall, for this year, we're looking at the allocation between assembly test material and EMS. I think in terms of packaging, the overall percentage will be about 54%, down from 65% last year, and we're increasing our test CapEx from last year's 25% to this year's 30%. Material, we're also increasing our CapEx and the percentage will rise from 2% to 4% this year. And also for EMS, raising that from 9% to 12% this year.

好的。我認為總的來說，今年，我們正在研究組裝測試材料和 EMS 之間的分配。我認為在包裝方面，整體百分比將約為 54%，低於去年的 65%，我們正在將測試資本支出從去年的 25% 增加到今年的 30%。材料，我們也在增加我們的資本支出，今年這個百分比將從 2% 上升到 4%。對於 EMS，今年將這一比例從 9% 提高到 12%。

We have a question from Mr. Bruce Lu of Goldman Sachs.

我們有一個來自高盛的 Bruce Lu 先生的問題。

Hello, can you hear me?

你好，你能聽到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Congrats on a great result. I'm very impressed in terms of your gross margin for both EMS and ATM. I know part of that is due to the currency, but still the gross margin improved a lot. However, you are guiding for a slightly decline in the third quarter for the ATM gross margin, with the currency is still very weak. And the capacity [expansion rate] we made at the same level, can you give us a little bit more color on that?

恭喜取得好成績。我對你們 EMS 和 ATM 的毛利率印象深刻。我知道部分原因是由於貨幣，但毛利率仍然提高了很多。但是，您預計第三季度 ATM 毛利率會略有下降，貨幣仍然非常疲軟。還有我們在同級別製作的容量[擴展率]，你能給我們多一點顏色嗎？

That's more, there are 2 factors involved. One is for some of the product mix, with some of the higher material contents -- shipments would be higher. And the other main reason is, really the rising utility costs, which will give us a over 50 basis points increase in terms of our costs.

更重要的是，涉及到兩個因素。一種是針對某些產品組合，其中一些材料含量較高——出貨量會更高。另一個主要原因是公用事業成本的上漲，這將使我們的成本增加超過 50 個基點。

I see. But can I assume that, if the [retention rate] remained at the current level, the 28% and above will be a new norm for ATM profitability moving forward?

我懂了。但我是否可以假設，如果[留存率]保持在當前水平，28% 及以上將成為 ATM 盈利能力向前發展的新標準？

I think, Tien mentioned -- discussed about our structural improvement in terms of our margin. I think if you go back to past 10 years, I think the margin range is from -- a gross profit margin range from 20% to mid-20%. I think with the scale enlargement with the technology improvement, also the -- a lot of the efficiency improvement. I think structurally, we are -- we can anticipate a move up of that range from mid-20s to 30%.

我認為，Tien 提到 - 討論了我們在利潤率方面的結構性改進。我認為如果你回到過去 10 年，我認為利潤率範圍是 - 毛利率範圍從 20% 到 20% 左右。我認為隨著技術改進的規模擴大，效率也有很大的提高。我認為從結構上講，我們是 - 我們可以預期這個範圍會從 20 年代中期上升到 30%。

So we can expect somehow 30% gross margin next year?

所以我們可以期待明年毛利率達到 30% 嗎？

That's the current growth. And I'd also bear in mind that, with the raised range, the new range is including the PPA, which has about a 1% impact on our overall margin.

這就是現在的增長。而且我還要記住，隨著範圍的提高，新範圍包括 PPA，這對我們的整體利潤率產生了約 1% 的影響。

(inaudible).

（聽不清）。

Yes. So apple-to-apples, there's another 1% increase in the structural margin there.

是的。因此，蘋果對蘋果的結構性利潤率又增加了 1%。

Okay. Okay. My next question is regarding to the advanced packaging business. I mean, (inaudible) if TSMC is willing to outsource some of the advanced packaging business to ASE. Do we have any threshold in terms of profitability or ROE, whether ASE would take that kind of business or not? Is that even in company's growth strategy?

好的。好的。我的下一個問題是關於先進封裝業務。我的意思是，（聽不清）如果台積電願意將一些先進封裝業務外包給 ASE。我們在盈利能力或 ROE 方面是否有任何門檻，日月光是否會接受這種業務？這甚至在公司的增長戰略中嗎？

I mean the -- it certainly is in part of the growth strategy, but we will not comment any detail on this one.

我的意思是——它當然是增長戰略的一部分，但我們不會對此發表任何評論。

Just a little bit color, Ken.

只是有點顏色，肯。

No comment.

沒有意見。

Thank you. Our next question is from Mr. Rick Hsu of Daiwa Securities. Rick?

謝謝你。我們的下一個問題來自大和證券的 Rick Hsu 先生。瑞克？

This is Rick here. I guess...

這是瑞克。我猜...

Hello, Rick.

你好，瑞克。

Yes.

是的。

Please restate your question again?

請再次重申您的問題？

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Right. So I got only one question, for your outlook for the year 2023. I think the tax cycle, how much the cycle would drop, nobody knows, but some of the industry leaders at TSMC and UMC, they still expect a growth year for 2023, regardless of the cyclical correction. So I would like to have your view on your revenue growth for next year. Can you give us a little bit color?

好的。正確的。所以我只有一個問題，關於你對 2023 年的展望。我認為稅收週期，週期會下降多少，沒人知道，但台積電和聯電的一些行業領導者，他們仍然預計 2023 年是增長年，不管週期性修正。所以我想听聽你對明年收入增長的看法。你能給我們一點顏色嗎？

As I pointed out, it's really too early to talk about 2023, but if you really want to ask and I can offer you a most likely scenario, right? I believe next year, is going to be a challenging year with a lot of uncertainty, a headwind. So the overall industry, it won't perform as well as the previous few years. However, in that scenario, you will have some companies, some sectors doing better than the others. And certainly, I believe the company you have just mentioned, as well as ASE, we're striving to perform in the upper threshold of the average. In other words, it is possible even though the industry is flattish, slightly up or slightly down. But some company will continue to outperform the others. And I think next year will be a perfect scenario to see the differential of technology, customer traction, as well as the economy of scale. And I believe that's what some of the companies we're referring to.

正如我所指出的，現在談論 2023 年還為時過早，但如果你真的想問，我可以為你提供一個最有可能的情況，對吧？我相信明年將是充滿挑戰的一年，充滿不確定性和逆風。所以整個行業，它的表現不會像前幾年那麼好。但是，在這種情況下，您將有一些公司，一些部門比其他部門做得更好。當然，我相信你剛才提到的公司以及 ASE，我們都在努力達到平均水平的上限。換句話說，即使行業平淡、小幅上漲或小幅下跌，也有可能。但有些公司將繼續超越其他公司。我認為明年將是一個完美的場景，可以看到技術、客戶吸引力以及規模經濟的差異。我相信這就是我們所指的一些公司。

In terms of specifically, its upturn downturn, where the recession is going to hit us, and that really is very, very difficult. I don't think anyone knows. However, I do believe if there's a downturn, it would be a good opportunity for us to demonstrate that differential. Thank you.

具體來說，它的好轉低迷，經濟衰退將打擊我們，這真的非常非常困難。我想沒有人知道。但是，我確實相信，如果出現經濟低迷，這將是我們展示這種差異的好機會。謝謝你。

Thank you so much Dr. Wu, that's very clear.

非常感謝吳醫生，很清楚。

If I may add, I think our goal -- our target is continue to do 2x of the [large semi] growth.

如果我可以補充的話，我認為我們的目標——我們的目標是繼續實現 2 倍的 [大型半] 增長。

Okay. That sounds pretty good. Just one quick follow-up about your guidance. I think when you say EMS Q3, I presume that EMS Q3 quarter-on-quarter growth will be around 25%, right?

好的。這聽起來很不錯。只需快速跟進您的指導。我認為當您說 EMS Q3 時，我認為 EMS Q3 季度環比增長將在 25% 左右，對吧？

Correct.

正確的。

And we have a question from Mr. Frank Lee of HSBC.

我們有一個來自匯豐銀行的 Frank Lee 先生的問題。

Just wanted to ask, I guess, looking at the bigger picture and you've talked about, I think, a consistent message, some pockets of weakness, some other areas still holding up. But I guess if we look at this as a whole, the areas of weakness such as smartphones and PCs, looks like they keep getting worse and worse over the last couple of quarters. And yet your overall outlook has been good. The overall business hasn't been too negatively impacted. As you go into next year, I know there's a lot of uncertainties, are there any specific end market applications that would be a concern? Because it seems like no matter how bad consumer gets -- so far, it's not impacting you guys in the overall industry, especially some of the other foundries. But are any particular areas of concern that would be a bigger problem from a demand point of view that you can share?

我想只是想問一下，從更大的圖景來看，你已經談到了，我認為，一個一致的信息，一些弱點，其他一些領域仍然存在。但我想，如果我們從整體上看，智能手機和個人電腦等薄弱領域似乎在過去幾個季度變得越來越糟。然而，你的整體前景一直很好。整體業務並沒有受到太大的負面影響。當你進入明年時，我知道有很多不確定性，是否有任何特定的終端市場應用會引起關注？因為似乎無論消費者變得多麼糟糕——到目前為止，它都不會影響整個行業的你們，尤其是其他一些代工廠。但是，從需求的角度來看，是否有任何特定的關注領域會成為一個更大的問題，您可以分享嗎？

It's very sensitive to talk about which sector, because the -- we will be automatically linked to the company and the customer that we're supporting. But if I want to talk about bigger picture in general terms and then the -- from ASE's perspective, we are preparing for the following scenario. I call this one of the worst-case scenario is, people continue to order, assuming that they are either gaining share or nothing is going to change. And the consumer most likely will go back to the traditional purchase pattern. Now that will not affect the Q3 and Q4 loadings because we have to prepare for Thanksgiving, Christmas and maybe the Chinese New Year. Once we step up, if the end market demand really shows strong signs of weakness, then there will be a major correction. Chances are in very late December, most likely will be in the January, February timeframe. This is why the general assumption right now of all the supply chain guys that I talk to, are assuming we will go back to the normal seasonality in Q1 of 2023, okay? So this is really what we [paint out] as the worst-case scenario.

談論哪個部門非常敏感，因為我們將自動與我們支持的公司和客戶聯繫起來。但是，如果我想籠統地談論大局，然後從 ASE 的角度來看，我們正在為以下情況做準備。我稱這是最壞的情況之一，人們繼續訂購，假設他們要么獲得份額，要么什麼都不會改變。消費者很可能會回到傳統的購買模式。現在這不會影響第三季度和第四季度的裝載，因為我們必須為感恩節、聖誕節和中國新年做準備。一旦我們加緊，如果終端市場需求真的顯示出強烈的疲軟跡象，那麼就會出現重大回調。很有可能在 12 月下旬，很可能會在 1 月、2 月的時間範圍內。這就是為什麼現在與我交談過的所有供應鏈人員的一般假設都假設我們將在 2023 年第一季度恢復正常的季節性，好嗎？所以這真的是我們[描繪]為最壞的情況。

But I really would like to give all of you some operational highlights. Now if you recall, all of the supply chain guys, including ASE, we have not had a break for almost 2.5 years. And you also understand that we are short of equipment, we sort of manpower. Everybody is calling everybody throughout the whole supply chain, everybody, just the same parts. So for any operation under such an intensive stretch, it's like running a marathon 3x. They will be fatigued. So when I talk to all the supply chain, including my [guys], everybody is kind of desperate for a break, for seasonality.

但我真的很想給大家一些操作亮點。現在，如果您還記得，包括 ASE 在內的所有供應鏈人員，我們已經將近 2.5 年沒有休息過。而且你也明白我們缺乏設備，我們有點人力。每個人都在呼喚整個供應鏈中的每個人，每個人，只是相同的部分。因此，在如此高強度的拉伸下進行任何操作，都像是跑了 3 次馬拉松。他們會感到疲倦。因此，當我與包括我的 [伙計們] 在內的所有供應鏈交談時，每個人都非常渴望休息，渴望季節性。

The seasonality -- people can take the necessary attrition, equipment upgrade, software upgrade, maintenance and many customers are pushing us to establish additional automation line. But you understand that, to do automation line, it takes a lot of resource, a lot of qualification and then the (inaudible) after 2 years, the customers start traveling, the NPI becomes very fascinating. So we have a lot of very interesting multi-die co-package, all kinds of applications. All of the NPI will occupy critical resources for qualification, and redesign of material process, equipment, software, everything. We have not had the time to do the necessary things to prepare for the next 5 years of growth. This is the general scenario I'm painting to you. I don't think anyone is of exception.

季節性——人們可以進行必要的減員、設備升級、軟件升級、維護，許多客戶正在推動我們建立額外的自動化生產線。但是你明白，做自動化線需要很多資源，很多資質，然後（聽不清）2年後，客戶開始旅行，NPI變得非常迷人。所以我們有很多非常有趣的多芯片聯合封裝，各種應用。所有 NPI 都將佔用關鍵資源，用於材料工藝、設備、軟件等一切的資格認證和重新設計。我們還沒有時間做必要的事情來為未來 5 年的增長做準備。這是我給你畫的一般場景。我認為沒有人例外。

So everybody is concerned about seasonality. Seasonality is -- this is like a four seasons, it's like night and day. This is something we grew up with, and this is something health-wise, biological wise, it makes sense business-wise. So we really welcome seasonality. We should not really look at after 2 years of COVID, we should assume the abnormal to be normal. So I really would like to start laying out, yes, we'll go back to seasonality. We will try to well utilize the precious seasonality to do the right thing, like what we have always been trained to do. By doing this, we're looking at structural improvement in our baseline, our capability, our efficiency, better NPI, better engagement. And then industry is really poised for the long horizon. If you talk to anybody today, people will tell you, well next 5, 10 years is fantastic. But 2023, we don't know. So just take it, 2023, we don't know. But future 5 years is fantastic.

所以每個人都關心季節性。季節性是——這就像四個季節，就像白天和黑夜。這是我們長大的東西，這是健康方面的，生物學方面的，商業方面的。所以我們非常歡迎季節性。我們不應該真的在 2 年後的 COVID 之後再看，我們應該假設異常是正常的。所以我真的很想開始佈局，是的，我們將回到季節性。我們將努力利用寶貴的季節性做正確的事，就像我們一直受訓要做的那樣。通過這樣做，我們正在研究我們的基線、能力、效率、更好的 NPI 和更好的參與度的結構性改進。然後行業真的準備好迎接長遠的發展了。如果您今天與任何人交談，人們會告訴您，接下來的 5 年、10 年非常棒。但是2023年，我們不知道。所以就拿它吧，2023年，我們不知道。但未來 5 年非常棒。

Now if that is a scenario, what would you do, as an operator? So I believe if we put things really in the big picture in perspective, you will see that this is actually a necessary transition, back to the normalcy. Whatever it is, for the long haul, it will be better for the industry. That's my honest opinion.

現在，如果這是一種情況，作為操作員，您會怎麼做？所以我相信，如果我們真正把事情放在大局中，你會發現這實際上是一個必要的過渡，回到正常狀態。不管是什麼，從長遠來看，這對行業來說都會更好。這是我的誠實意見。

I really appreciate that Dr. Wu, that's a great answer. Can I just ask a follow-up then, just on what you've painted as a worst case where -- or I guess maybe the base case is to what you said, if things start to normalize by beginning of next year or at least it's a 2 or 3 quarter slowdown, because that's been the past correction cycles we've seen in the industry. But we've also seen kind of an unprecedented 2-year upturn, and inventory levels, if you collectively look at semiconductors, is probably at a multiyear high, which we've never seen so high before. Do you think it's normal to assume that it will be just a normal 2, 3 -- I know it's a very difficult question, but given where we are coming off of such a high base, could it be a longer period, or is it -- or are we too optimist think that it's a normal 2, 3 quarters, in light of the fact that everything is extremely elevated levels?

我真的很感謝吳博士，這是一個很好的答案。那我可以問一個後續問題嗎這是 2 或 3 個季度的放緩，因為這是我們在行業中看到的過去的修正週期。但我們也看到了前所未有的 2 年好轉，如果你集體看半導體，庫存水平可能處於多年高位，這是我們以前從未見過的如此高的水平。你認為假設它只是一個正常的 2、3 是否正常 - 我知道這是一個非常困難的問題，但鑑於我們從如此高的基數中脫離出來，它可能是一個更長的時期，還是- 或者我們是否過於樂觀地認為這是一個正常的 2、3 個季度，因為一切都處於極高水平？

Joseph and Ken are signaling, asking me not to say it. But I think I want to say it; because if you look at the -- I mean, how bad the downturn is going to be, please consider the following fact. I think the -- if you look at the PC number, whether commercial or the personal -- the consumer or the commercial, the baseline is moving up, and that's a fact. And if you look at the wireless, I really do not want to talk about any customer. What we have seen is the wireless inventory control started in January of this year. I've never seen people jump in so early, because the -- yes, we're -- we have our agility, we should.

約瑟夫和肯在發信號，要我不要說出來。但我想我想說；因為如果你看 - 我的意思是，經濟衰退會有多糟糕，請考慮以下事實。我認為——如果你看看個人電腦的數量，無論是商業的還是個人的——消費者或商業的，基線正在上升，這是事實。如果你看看無線，我真的不想談論任何客戶。我們看到的是今年1月開始的無線庫存控制。我從來沒有見過人們這麼早加入，因為——是的，我們是——我們有我們的敏捷性，我們應該這樣做。

But our customers are more shrewd. You don't know, like we used to be like 30%, 40% overbooked, sometimes 50% overbooked. In the last few quarters, things have changed dramatically starting January. So the inventory control has been going on for 2 quarters already. So the question now is the -- I mean Q3 additional inventory control by some sectors, Q4 another control, and you believe this will last all the way to the second half of next year. Again, nobody knows. I only want to offer perspective.

但我們的客戶更精明。你不知道，就像我們過去一樣 30%，40% 超額預訂，有時 50% 超額預訂。在過去的幾個季度中，從 1 月份開始，情況發生了巨大變化。所以庫存控制已經進行了兩個季度。所以現在的問題是——我的意思是一些行業第三季度額外的庫存控制，第四季度另一個控制，你相信這將一直持續到明年下半年。再一次，沒有人知道。我只想提供觀點。

I believe the baseline, because of the COVID, people travel differently. People use Zoom differently. People use PC differently. The baseline has absolutely moved up, I'm convinced. The question now is, with all of the baseline moving up, as was inventory control, as was everything that's going on. Right now, we just don't know what it is. But if you really ask my honest opinion, I think next year will be a mild adjustment, and if you look at even the U.S. fab, I mean, yesterday, the market moved up and then they raised 3 basis point and then -- we hear everything.

我相信基線，因為 COVID，人們的旅行方式不同。人們使用 Zoom 的方式不同。人們使用 PC 的方式不同。基線絕對上升了，我深信。現在的問題是，隨著所有基線的上升，庫存控制也在上升，正在發生的一切也是如此。現在，我們只是不知道它是什麼。但如果你真的問我的誠實意見，我認為明年將是一個溫和的調整，如果你看看美國工廠，我的意思是，昨天，市場上漲，然後他們提高了 3 個基點，然後——我們聽到一切。

But again, I don't have a crystal ball and I just want to share with you what our internal conversation has been. People are sharing extreme thoughts, that next year is going to be a holocaust, terrible. But on the other hand, look at the signs, look at all the NPIs and look at all of the bookings, look at all of the substrate, look at all of the automotive guys, what a long waiting list. I mean, I talk to a lot of customers, the way to aggressively booking capacity. It really makes you think why.

但同樣，我沒有水晶球，我只想和你分享我們的內部對話。人們正在分享極端的想法，明年將是一場大屠殺，太可怕了。但另一方面，看看標誌，看看所有的 NPI，看看所有的預訂，看看所有的基板，看看所有的汽車製造商，等待名單的時間真長。我的意思是，我與很多客戶交談，積極預訂容量的方式。它真的讓你思考為什麼。

But again, by next January, we will see better. And we can compare it to my notes 6 months ahead of time. So we'll see. Okay. Joseph asked me absolutely not to say anymore. I stop.

但同樣，到明年一月，我們會看到更好的結果。我們可以提前 6 個月將其與我的筆記進行比較。所以我們拭目以待。好的。約瑟夫讓我絕對不要再說了。我停下。

Now we have a question from Mr. Bruce Lu of Goldman Sachs.

現在我們有一個來自高盛的 Bruce Lu 先生的問題。

Hey, I wanted to ask one more question about the multiyear growth, which is 2x of semiconductor growth. Can you break it down in terms of like, what is the dollar content growth? What is the shipment growth, and what is the share gain, in a way that we can better understand it? Or can you provide something like TSMC has been saying that their dollar content will increase by mid- to high single digit in the next few years. Can we have that kind of quantitative guidance for your growth for the next few years?

嘿，我想再問一個關於多年增長的問題，即半導體增長的 2 倍。您能否將其分解為美元內容增長是多少？出貨量增長是多少，份額增長是多少，我們可以更好地理解它嗎？或者你能提供像台積電一直在說他們的美元含量將在未來幾年中以中高個位數增長的東西。我們可以為您未來幾年的增長提供這種定量指導嗎？

My apologies, we don't have this kind of detailed dollar breakdown in terms of the end product to customers. Because our customers are too diversified, and it's hard for us to track. But in terms of the -- I mean the organic growth is easy, and we also have the technology, which means that for the same unit, we have to start adding more value because of the complexity. On top of that, the share gain actually is not difficult to comprehend. If you look at the supply chain for the last 2 years, and you really ask the question, we are -- where were the bottlenecks? You will understand that OSAT is hardly the bottlenecks, and we have other bottlenecks.

抱歉，我們沒有對客戶的最終產品進行這種詳細的美元細分。因為我們的客戶太多樣化了，我們很難追踪。但就--我的意思是有機增長很容易，我們也有技術，這意味著對於同一個單位，由於復雜性，我們必須開始增加更多的價值。最重要的是，份額收益實際上並不難理解。如果你看看過去 2 年的供應鏈，你真的會問這個問題，我們是——瓶頸在哪裡？你會明白 OSAT 幾乎不是瓶頸，我們還有其他瓶頸。

Therefore, to have a more secure supply chain, a lot of the end customer, including automotives are demanding to have second source. And the second source being, moving to the foundry and OSAT. So in terms of market share gain, we know we have market share gain. And that is giving us more confidence, in terms of how do we have the stability moving forward, even though you have a sector rotation up and down?

因此，為了擁有更安全的供應鏈，包括汽車在內的許多終端客戶都要求擁有第二貨源。第二個來源是，轉向代工廠和 OSAT。因此，就市場份額的增長而言，我們知道我們有市場份額的增長。這讓我們更有信心，即使你有一個上下輪換，我們如何保持穩定向前發展？

But can you say that the market share gain is more important than your additional value add to your product, i.e., the dollar growth, which one is the more important factors?

但是你能說市場份額的增長比你對產品的附加值增加更重要，即美元增長，哪一個是更重要的因素？

So I think the safe answer is all important, because I...

所以我認為安全的答案很重要，因為我...

I am sorry.

對不起。

I don't want to misuse the information. I don't want to mislead you and -- but...

我不想濫用這些信息。我不想誤導你而且——但是...

No, I think it's very, very critical that, we have a very, very unique scalability. When the time is uncertain, I think all the customers will (inaudible) security and also fly for quality. I think that's what we have. I mean the whole industry, we will continue to see unit growth. We will continue to see IC content growth. We will see -- continue to see increasing outsourcing, even like automotive in the past, very little percentage of the auto parts are being outsourced. And now because of the customers' request, the more outsourcing in the automotive is happening as well. So we're seeing a lot of growth in the IoT. We're seeing HPC, we're seeing a lot of different categories that are still growing strong. I think the overall unit continues to make -- lay a very strong support for our business, and given our leading position in the industry, market share gain is a very natural thing for us.

不，我認為非常非常關鍵的是，我們擁有非常非常獨特的可擴展性。當時間不確定時，我認為所有的客戶都會（聽不清）安全並為質量而飛。我認為這就是我們所擁有的。我的意思是整個行業，我們將繼續看到單位增長。我們將繼續看到 IC 內容的增長。我們將看到 - 繼續看到越來越多的外包，即使像過去的汽車一樣，只有很少比例的汽車零部件被外包。現在，由於客戶的要求，汽車領域的外包也越來越多。所以我們看到物聯網有很大的增長。我們看到了 HPC，我們看到了許多仍在增長的不同類別。我認為整個部門繼續為我們的業務提供非常強大的支持，並且鑑於我們在行業中的領先地位，市場份額的增長對我們來說是很自然的事情。

And just to give some additional color to the last 2 years, because as the head of operation, you have to understand that in the last 2 years, there's a lot of like commodity type of number looking for volume, which is very critical. In the last 2 years, there are very difficult parts like in automotive, that not everyone can do it. And then ASE was constrained by equipment delivery, and was also constrained by manpower, because of COVID. But if you look at the number of parts that we shipped. And also, if you relook into the content, there has been -- we made a lot of friends, let's put it this way.

並且只是給最近2年一些額外的顏色，因為作為運營負責人，你必須了解在過去2年中，有很多類似商品類型的數字尋找數量，這是非常關鍵的。在過去的 2 年裡，有非常困難的部件，比如汽車，不是每個人都能做到的。然後 ASE 受到設備交付的限制，也受到人力的限制，因為 COVID。但是，如果您查看我們運送的零件數量。而且，如果您重新查看內容，我們已經交了很多朋友，讓我們這樣說吧。

In an extreme difficult condition, we were able to just put it together and then really start shipping in record time, of a highly complex volume parts, using some -- using the fully automated line. And that gained us a lot of friendships. And then the -- which is rewarded by additional NPIs. So when we look at the whole scenario, yes, we do understand the install capacity. We do understand our competitor. But with everything considered, and I think the -- especially in 2023, I think it will be interesting, just to see all of the friendship, how much that is worth.

在極其困難的情況下，我們能夠將它們組裝在一起，然後真正開始在創紀錄的時間內運送高度複雜的體積零件，使用一些——使用全自動生產線。這為我們贏得了很多友誼。然後是 - 由額外的 NPI 獎勵。因此，當我們查看整個場景時，是的，我們確實了解安裝容量。我們確實了解我們的競爭對手。但考慮到一切，我認為——尤其是在 2023 年，我認為這會很有趣，看看所有的友誼，它值多少錢。

Can I -- can I ask in a different way that, for the last 2 years, obviously, you are growing 2x then, semi growth. So for the last 2 years, at least you have some consultative number, that how much is coming from the share gap, how much was coming from the higher value add you provide to your customers? At least for the last 2 years?

我可以 - 我可以以不同的方式問，在過去的 2 年中，很明顯，你正在增長 2 倍，半增長。所以在過去的兩年裡，至少你有一些諮詢數字，有多少來自份額差距，有多少來自你為客戶提供的更高附加值？至少過去2年？

Well I don't know the number, I'll just tell you 50-50.

嗯，我不知道這個數字，我只會告訴你 50-50。

We have a question from Mr. Randy Abrams of Credit Suisse. Randy?

我們有一個來自瑞士信貸的 Randy Abrams 先生的問題。蘭迪？

I wanted to ask on the capacity expansion. If you could clarify the announcements you've made in SPIL in terms of like timing and how much you're bringing on? And second part to that, we've had all these chips at Europe, now U.S. may go ahead, India. Is anything shifting in thinking? Because it looks like you (inaudible) on deck for expansion in Taiwan?

我想問關於擴容的問題。如果你能澄清你在 SPIL 中發布的公告，比如時間和你帶來了多少？第二部分，我們在歐洲擁有所有這些芯片，現在美國可能會領先，印度。思維有什麼變化嗎？因為看起來你（聽不清）準備在台灣擴張？

I'll answer the -- I'm not sure you're talking about the U.S., the upper house just passed the chip act, is that what you're talking about?

我會回答——我不確定你說的是美國，上議院剛剛通過了籌碼法案，你說的是這個嗎？

Not through all the way. But yes, the upper -- the Senate passed, so, there's quite a bit of money in there, including some copackaging.

一路走不通。但是，是的，上層——參議院通過了，所以里面有很多錢，包括一些聯合包裝。

Right. I mean, obviously, our customers and our governments (inaudible), are all pushing us to do some investment. And our answer is the following; we will like to make that investment in different geography, just to satisfy the supply chain security and everything. But we need to understand precisely what are the requirements. So until today, we have not been able to narrow down to the precise investment that we need to make, in order to make the supply chain security better.

正確的。我的意思是，顯然，我們的客戶和我們的政府（聽不清）都在推動我們進行一些投資。我們的答案如下；我們願意在不同的地域進行投資，以滿足供應鏈安全和一切。但是我們需要準確地了解需求是什麼。所以直到今天，我們都無法縮小到我們需要進行的精確投資，以使供應鏈安全性更好。

Now the support, the funding is always good to have. However, we will not make any investment because of the funding or the subsidies. But we will make investment if we understand precisely the requirement in detail, such that we can perform to that expectation. So the short answer is, the short term, no, we're not engaging in any kind of capacity investment in any geography outside of our current jurisdiction.

現在有支持，有資金總是好的。但是，我們不會因為資金或補貼而進行任何投資。但是，如果我們準確地了解詳細的需求，我們就會進行投資，以便我們可以按照預期執行。所以簡短的回答是，短期內，不，我們不會在我們當前管轄範圍之外的任何地區進行任何類型的產能投資。

In terms of the -- I'm sorry, in terms of the SPIL investment, I think SPIL is building the additional buildings in anticipation for the next few years of our run-up. And then the -- I think ASE is also acquiring land and building facility, because the facility and the building are on a different tempo. They're on a different time scale, comparing to the business up and down. So we also want to make sure the infrastructure is ready, and then we will deal with the business, the equipment and the qualification accordingly.

就 - 對不起，就 SPIL 的投資而言，我認為 SPIL 正在建造額外的建築物，以期我們未來幾年的啟動。然後 - 我認為 ASE 也在收購土地和建築設施，因為設施和建築的節奏不同。與業務的起起伏伏相比，它們處於不同的時間尺度。所以我們也想確保基礎設施準備好，然後我們會相應地處理業務、設備和資質。

Okay. Makes sense. And if you could talk to this -- you've mentioned a few times the multi-die, the co-packaged. In the past, there was a lot of focus, which was a fair amount of EMS. Could you go a little more into the application of the products driving this, and how big it is for the overall -- if it's more IC ATM, how big it is?

好的。說得通。如果你能談談這個 - 你已經多次提到多芯片，共同封裝。過去，有很多重點，這是相當數量的EMS。你能多談一下驅動這個的產品的應用嗎？它對整體有多大——如果是更多的 IC ATM，它有多大？

Okay. when we talk about the multi-academy apology for all of these terms, because it is different. Because we always talk about the multichip module MCM. The MCM tends to be multiple chip, (inaudible), using the similar method to be attached to one module. When I talk about the multi die copackage, that means it could be multiple package. The multiple die or multiple package, and let's put it together. So when you think about this, then your question is relevant. In this kind of multi-die co-package, should that be going to the ATM business, or should I go to the USI business? The question really is, the answer is yes, both. It really depends on the density, the complexity and also the feature size. And it also depends on the logistics. So the ATM can do it, the very, very fine pitch, a complicated ATM will do it. And a little bit -- whatever the EMS can handle, the EMS will handle.

好的。當我們談論多學院為所有這些術語道歉時，因為它是不同的。因為我們總是談論多芯片模塊MCM。 MCM 往往是多芯片（聽不清），使用類似的方法連接到一個模塊。當我談到多芯片聯合封裝時，這意味著它可以是多封裝。多個裸片或多個封裝，讓我們將它們放在一起。因此，當您考慮這一點時，您的問題是相關的。在這種多芯片聯合封裝中，應該去ATM業務，還是應該去USI業務？問題確實是，答案是肯定的，兩者都是。它實際上取決於密度、複雜性以及特徵大小。這也取決於物流。所以 ATM 可以做到，非常非常精細的音高，複雜的 ATM 可以做到。還有一點——無論 EMS 能處理什麼，EMS 都會處理。

But in terms of application, I mean we see this in all applications, especially when you talk about automotive, the automotive used to be -- I mean if you look at the Tesla, for example, right, their design always will be compared to the old automotive design. The old automotive design was like one microcontroller will control the radio, and then the CD and the windows. One chip will do one thing -- one chip does one thing. But if you look at how Tesla design things, one chip does 20 things. So in order to do this, if you really have to start thinking about the concept of multi-die co-package and managing by the firmware, software and everything around it. In the future, like not only all of the combustion cars are going this way, the electrical vehicle are absolutely going this way. So that's just one example.

但就應用而言，我的意思是我們在所有應用中都看到了這一點，尤其是當你談論汽車時，汽車曾經是——我的意思是，如果你看看特斯拉，例如，對，他們的設計總是會被比作舊的汽車設計。舊的汽車設計就像一個微控制器將控制收音機，然後是 CD 和窗戶。一個芯片做一件事——一個芯片做一件事。但如果你看看特斯拉是如何設計事物的，一個芯片可以做 20 件事。所以為了做到這一點，如果你真的必須開始考慮多芯片聯合封裝的概念，並通過固件、軟件和周圍的一切進行管理。未來，不僅所有的內燃機汽車都這樣，電動汽車也絕對會這樣。所以這只是一個例子。

So when you think about multi-die copackage, and I think you bundle the power management chip, with ASA controller memory, they are necessarily the same. I mean wireless chip, then you have linear analog, and digital. They're not just die. They can be die, they can be die on the package. And then they somehow bundle all of the pack together. So things become a little bit more creative now. I think it covers the -- all of the applications, and this is something that we believe will offer us more value and room for imagination in the future.

因此，當您考慮多芯片聯合封裝時，我認為您將電源管理芯片與 ASA 控制器內存捆綁在一起，它們必然是相同的。我的意思是無線芯片，然後你有線性模擬和數字。他們不只是死。他們可以死，他們可以死在包裝上。然後他們以某種方式將所有包裝捆綁在一起。所以現在事情變得更有創意了。我認為它涵蓋了所有應用程序，我們相信這將在未來為我們提供更多價值和想像空間。

There's no more questions.

沒有更多的問題了。

Thank you guys.

感謝你們。

Okay, if there's no more questions, we will end the -- we'll end the call today. Thank you very much.

好的，如果沒有更多問題，我們將結束 - 我們今天將結束通話。非常感謝。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

See you next quarter.

下個季度見。