日月光投資控股 (ASX) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Hello, I am Ken Hsiang, the Head of Investor Relations for ASE Technology Holdings. Welcome to our second quarter 2023 earnings release. Thank you for attending our conference call today. Please refer to our safe harbor notice on Page 2. All participants consent to having their voices and questions broadcast via participation in this event. If participants do not consent, please disconnect at this time.

大家好，我是日月光科技控股的投資者關係主管Ken Hsiang。歡迎閱讀我們的 2023 年第二季度收益發布。感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。請參閱第 2 頁上的安全港通知。所有參與者都同意通過參加本次活動來表達他們的聲音和問題。如果參與者不同意，請此時斷開連接。

I would like to remind everyone that the presentation that follows may contain forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to a high degree of risk, and our actual results may differ materially.

我想提醒大家，接下來的演示可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述面臨高度風險，我們的實際結果可能存在重大差異。

For the purposes of this presentation, our dollar figures are generally stated in New Taiwan dollars, unless otherwise indicated. As a Taiwan-based company, our financials are presented in accordance with Taiwan IFRS. Results presented using Taiwan IFRS may differ materially from results using other accounting standards, including those presented by our subsidiary using Chinese GAAP.

出於本演示的目的，除非另有說明，我們的美元數字通常以新台幣表示。作為一家台灣公司，我們的財務數據按照台灣國際財務報告準則呈報。使用台灣國際財務報告準則呈現的結果可能與使用其他會計準則呈現的結果存在重大差異，包括我們的子公司使用中國公認會計準則呈現的結果。

I am joined today by Joseph Tung, our CFO. For today's session, I will be giving the prepared remarks. Joseph will then be available to take your questions during the Q&A session that follows. The following financial references we'll be referring to the first half of 2023 as compared to the first half 2022.

今天我們的首席財務官 Joseph Tung 也加入了我的行列。在今天的會議上，我將發表準備好的發言。約瑟夫將在接下來的問答環節回答您的問題。在以下財務參考中，我們將參考 2023 年上半年與 2022 年上半年的比較。

The first half of the year has been characterized not just by an unprecedented inventory correction, but also broad-ranging declines in electronics demand, as consumers catch up on travel and socialization. Issues relating to a slower-than-expected economy in China exacerbated [already] lacklustre electronic spending. The excess inventory environment appears to be stretching out well into the back half of 2023.

今年上半年的特點不僅是前所未有的庫存調整，而且隨著消費者追趕旅行和社交活動，電子產品需求也出現廣泛下降。中國經濟慢於預期的相關問題加劇了本已低迷的電子支出。庫存過剩的環境似乎將持續到 2023 年下半年。

In this climate, the holding company first half revenues declined 12% year-over-year, while our ATM and EMS first half revenues declined by 17% and 7% respectively.

在這種環境下，控股公司上半年收入同比下降12%，而我們的ATM和EMS上半年收入分別下降17%和7%。

For our ATM business, our automotive-related application bucked the trend and grew by 15%. Advanced packaging revenues declined slightly more than wirebond packaging revenues during the first half of the year, 20% and 17% respectively. Our advanced packaging products have more exposure to the more heavily impacted Communication segment.

ATM業務方面，汽車相關應用逆勢增長15%。上半年先進封裝收入下降幅度略大於引線鍵合封裝收入，分別為 20% 和 17%。我們的先進封裝產品更多地接觸到受影響更嚴重的通信領域。

Meanwhile, our testing business fared relatively better during the first half, declining 10% when compared with last year. This was driven by more stability of our China test business. Our EMS business declined 7% in the first half of 2023 when compared with the first half of 2022. This represents the overall weaker environment during the current year.

與此同時，我們的測試業務上半年表現相對較好，比去年下降了10%。這是由於我們的中國測試業務更加穩定所致。與 2022 年上半年相比，我們的 EMS 業務在 2023 年上半年下降了 7%。這代表了今年整體疲軟的環境。

Holding Company first half operating income declined by 53%, ATM first half operating income declined by 57%. As can be seen here, our business is highly dependent upon the leverage generated when equipment utilizations are full and operating efficiency is more optimized.

控股公司上半年營業收入下降了53%，ATM上半年營業收入下降了57%。從這裡可以看出，我們的業務高度依賴於設備利用率充分且運營效率更加優化時產生的槓桿。

For our business, it may appear things seem pretty bad with the overall economic environment and lengthening inventory digestion. But if we see this as the trough of all troughs, ASE appears to be doing okay. Of course, we would like a rapid return to health for the entire industry, but as a point of historical comparison, the last major downturns ASE saw were as follows.

對於我們的業務來說，隨著整體經濟環境和庫存消化時間的延長，情況可能看起來相當糟糕。但如果我們將此視為所有低谷中的低谷，那麼 ASE 的表現似乎還不錯。當然，我們希望整個行業能夠迅速恢復健康，但作為歷史比較的一點，日月光最近一次經歷的重大衰退如下。

In 2001, revenues were down 27% year-over-year with gross margin at 13%. In 2005, business was down 20%, with gross margin at 19%. In 2009, business was down 12%, with gross margin at 20%. Arguably, the current downturn is more severe in duration, and at least equal in terms of correction percentage. And yet our margin structure has held up and we are making more EPS in this downturn during the 2 trough quarters than compared to any of those full years. We believe this downturn is proving that our market position has significantly increased our resiliency and improved our structural business model.

2001年，收入同比下降27%，毛利率為13%。 2005年，業務下降20%，毛利率為19%。 2009年，業務下降12%，毛利率為20%。可以說，當前的經濟衰退在持續時間上更為嚴重，並且在修正百分比方面至少是相等的。然而，我們的利潤率結構保持不變，並且在經濟低迷時期的兩個低谷季度中，我們獲得的每股收益比全年中的任何一個季度都要高。我們相信，這次低迷證明我們的市場地位顯著增強了我們的彈性，並改善了我們的結構性業務模式。

For the second quarter, our ATM business experienced a relatively sluggish environment, but was somewhat better than original expectations due to higher-than-expected rush orders. Overall demand for services slightly improved off a first quarter trough levels.

第二季度，我們的ATM業務雖然經歷了相對低迷的環境，但由於搶單量高於預期，略好於原來的預期。總體服務需求較第一季度的低谷水平略有改善。

Customer wafer inventories at our facilities appeared to be in the initial stages of decline. However, given the overall tepid market environment, customers are becoming even more conservative on their inventory levels.

我們工廠的客戶晶圓庫存似乎正處於下降的初始階段。然而，鑑於整體市場環境不溫不火，客戶對庫存水平變得更加保守。

For [our] ATM factories during the quarter, key equipment utilization rates were still low, staying near 60%. On a more positive note, we are seeing more incremental pickup related to R&D, new product introduction work. Our EMS business picked up slightly as anticipated. This is in line with our outlook and in line with our typical seasonality.

本季度ATM工廠關鍵設備利用率仍然較低，維持在60%左右。從更積極的角度來看，我們看到與研發、新產品推出工作相關的增量增加。我們的 EMS 業務如預期略有回升。這符合我們的前景，也符合我們的典型季節性。

With that, please turn to Page 3 where you will find our second quarter consolidated results. For the second quarter, we recorded fully diluted EPS of TWD 1.76 and basic EPS of TWD 1.80. Consolidated net revenues increased 4% sequentially and declined 15% year-over-year.

接下來，請翻到第 3 頁，您將在其中找到我們第二季度的綜合業績。第二季度，我們錄得完全攤薄每股收益 1.76 新台幣，基本每股收益 1.80 新台幣。合併淨收入環比增長 4%，同比下降 15%。

We had a gross profit of TWD 21.7 billion, with a gross margin of 16%. Our gross margin improved by 1.2 percentage points sequentially, and 5.4 percentage points year-over-year. The sequential improvement of margin is principally due to higher loading in the current quarter. The annual decline in gross margin is principally the result of lower loading during the current downturn.

毛利217億新台幣，毛利率16%。我們的毛利率環比提高了 1.2 個百分點，同比提高了 5.4 個百分點。利潤率的連續改善主要是由於本季度的負荷增加。毛利率的年度下降主要是由於當前經濟低迷期間負荷下降所致。

Our operating expenses increased by TWD 0.7 billion sequentially and declined by TWD 1.5 billion annually. The sequential increase in operating expenses are primarily due to higher R&D expenses at our ATM business and labor-related costs as customers are starting to ramp new product introductions.

營業費用環比增加 7 億新台幣，每年減少 15 億新台幣。運營費用的環比增加主要是由於我們的 ATM 業務研發費用增加以及客戶開始加大新產品推出力度而導致的勞動力相關成本增加。

The year-over-year decline was primarily attributable to lower bonus and profit-sharing expenses across the company. Our operating expense percentage increased 0.1 percentage points sequentially, and 0.4 percentage points year-over-year to 9%. The sequential operating expense percentage increase was primarily related to higher R&D costs relative to revenues generated. The annual operating expense increase is primarily due to lower overall loading relative to semi-fixed operating costs.

同比下降的主要原因是整個公司的獎金和利潤分享費用減少。我們的運營費用百分比環比上升 0.1 個百分點，同比上升 0.4 個百分點，達到 9%。營業費用百分比環比增加主要與研發成本相對於所產生收入的增加有關。年度運營費用增加主要是由於相對於半固定運營成本而言總體裝載量較低。

Operating profit was TWD 9.4 billion, up TWD 1.7 billion sequentially and down TWD 11.2 billion year-over-year. Operating margin was 6.9%, improving 1.0 percentage points sequentially and declining 5.9 percentage points year-over-year. During the quarter we had a net non-operating gain of TWD 0.7 billion. Our non-operating gain for the quarter primarily consists of net foreign exchange hedging activities, profits from associates, and other non-operating income offset by net interest expense of TWD 1.1 billion.

營業利潤為新台幣 94 億，環比增加 17 億新台幣，同比減少 112 億新台幣。營業利潤率為 6.9%，環比提高 1.0 個百分點，同比下降 5.9 個百分點。本季度我們的營業外淨收益為 7 億新台幣。我們本季度的營業外收益主要包括外匯對沖活動淨額、聯營公司利潤以及被淨利息支出 11 億新台幣抵消的其他營業外收入。

Tax expense for the quarter was TWD 1.9 billion. The effective tax rate for the quarter was 18.9%. Net income for the quarter was TWD 7.7 billion, representing an increase of TWD 1.9 billion sequentially, and a decline of TWD 8.3 billion year-over-year.

該季度稅費為 19 億新台幣。該季度的有效稅率為18.9%。本季度淨利潤為新台幣 77 億，比上一季度增加 19 億新台幣，同比減少 83 億新台幣。

The NT dollar depreciated 0.6% against the U.S. dollar sequentially during the second quarter, and 4.5% annually. From a sequential perspective, we estimate the NT dollar depreciation had a 0.16 percentage point positive impact to the company's gross and operating margins.

第二季度新台幣兌美元匯率環比貶值0.6%，年比貶值4.5%。從環比來看，我們估計新台幣貶值對公司毛利率和營業利潤率有0.16個百分點的積極影響。

From a year-over-year perspective, we estimate that the depreciating NT dollar had a 1.28 percentage point positive impact to gross and operating margins. As a rule of thumb, for every percent the NT dollar appreciates, we see a corresponding 0.29 percentage point impact to our holding company gross margin.

從同比來看，我們估計新台幣貶值對毛利率和營業利潤率產生了 1.28 個百分點的積極影響。根據經驗，新台幣每升值百分之一，我們的控股公司毛利率就會相應受到0.29個百分點的影響。

On the bottom of the page, we provide key P&L line items without the inclusion of PPA-related expenses. Consolidated gross profit excluding PPA expenses would be TWD 22.7 billion with a 16.6% gross margin. Operating profit would be TWD 10.6 billion with an operating margin of 7.8%. Net profit would be TWD 8.9 billion with a net margin of 6.5%. Basic EPS excluding PPA expenses would be TWD 2.07.

在頁面底部，我們提供了關鍵的損益行項目，不包括與購電協議相關的費用。扣除購電協議費用後的綜合毛利潤為新台幣 227 億，毛利率為 16.6%。營業利潤為新台幣 106 億元，營業利潤率為 7.8%。淨利潤為新台幣 89 億，淨利潤率為 6.5%。不包括 PPA 費用的基本 EPS 為新台幣 2.07。

On Page 4 is a graphical presentation of our consolidated financial performance. You can see the impact of the current weak environment here. It does look like we are looking at the first quarter as the bottom though.

第 4 頁以圖形方式展示了我們的綜合財務業績。您可以在這裡看到當前疲軟環境的影響。不過，看起來我們確實將第一季度視為底部。

On Page 5 is our ATM P&L. It is worth noting here that the ATM revenue reported here contains revenue eliminated at the holding company level related to intercompany transactions between our ATM and EMS businesses. For the second quarter of 2023, revenues for our ATM business were TWD 76.1 billion, up TWD 2.8 billion from the previous quarter and down TWD 18.9 billion from the same period last year. This represents a 4% improvement sequentially rather than a flat quarter. While on a year-over-year basis, we declined 20%.

第 5 頁是我們的 ATM 損益表。值得注意的是，此處報告的 ATM 收入包含在控股公司層面消除的與我們的 ATM 和 EMS 業務之間的公司間交易相關的收入。 2023年第二季度，ATM業務收入為761億新台幣，比上季度增加28億新台幣，比去年同期減少189億新台幣。這意味著環比提高了 4%，而不是季度持平。與去年同期相比，我們下降了 20%。

Gross profit for our ATM business was TWD 16.2 billion, up TWD 1.4 billion sequentially, and TWD 11.6 billion year-over-year. Gross profit margin for our ATM business was 21.2%, up 1.1 percentage points sequentially and down 8 percentage points year-over-year. The sequential margin improvement is the result of slightly improved loading offset in part by higher utility costs, while the annual margin decline is primarily the result of lower loading due to the current downturn.

ATM 業務毛利為新台幣 162 億元，環比增加新台幣 14 億元，同比增加新台幣 116 億元。 ATM業務毛利率為21.2%，環比上升1.1個百分點，同比下降8個百分點。連續利潤率的提高是由於負荷略有改善的結果，部分被較高的公用事業成本所抵消，而年度利潤率下降主要是由於當前經濟低迷導致負荷下降的結果。

During the second quarter, operating expenses were TWD 8.7 billion, up TWD 0.4 billion sequentially and down TWD 1.1 billion year-over-year. The sequential increase in operating expenses was primarily driven by higher R&D expenses related to higher labor and new product introduction costs. The annual operating expense decline was driven primarily by lower labor costs due to lower profit sharing and bonus accrual.

第二季度營業費用為新台幣 87 億，環比增加 4 億新台幣，同比減少 11 億新台幣。運營費用的環比增長主要是由於勞動力和新產品推出成本增加導致研發費用增加。年度運營費用下降主要是由於利潤分享和獎金應計減少導致勞動力成本下降。

Our operating expense percentage for the quarter was 11.5%, up 0.1 percentage points sequentially, and 1.2 percentage points year-over-year. The sequential increase was due to increased R&D expenses, while the annual increase was due to lower loading relative to semi-fixed costs.

本季度運營費用率為 11.5%，環比上升 0.1 個百分點，同比上升 1.2 個百分點。環比增長是由於研發費用增加，而年度增長是由於相對於半固定成本的負荷較低。

During the second quarter, operating profit was TWD 7.4 billion, representing an increase of TWD 1 billion quarter-over-quarter and a decline of TWD 10.6 billion year-over-year. Operating margin was 9.7%, improving 1 percentage point sequentially and declining 9.2 percentage points year over year.

第二季度營業利潤為新台幣74億，環比增加10億新台幣，同比減少106億新台幣。營業利潤率為 9.7%，環比提高 1 個百分點，同比下降 9.2 個百分點。

For foreign exchange, we estimate that the NT to U.S. dollar exchange rate had a 0.28 percentage point impact on our ATM sequential margins and a 2.21 percentage point impact on a year-over-year basis. Without the impact of PPA-related depreciation and amortization, ATM gross profit margin would be 22.4% and operating profit margin would be 11.2%.

對於外匯，我們估計新台幣對美元的匯率對我們的 ATM 連續利潤率產生了 0.28 個百分點的影響，同比影響了 2.21 個百分點。如果不考慮購電協議相關的折舊和攤銷的影響，ATM 毛利率將為 22.4%，營業利潤率為 11.2%。

On Page 6, you'll find a graphical representation of our ATM P&L. As can be seen here, current year loading levels are still significantly lower than 2022.

在第 6 頁上，您將找到我們 ATM 損益表的圖形表示。從這裡可以看出，今年的負載水平仍顯著低於 2022 年。

On Page 7 is our ATM revenue by market segment. It's fairly similar as last quarter. However, over the course of the last 1.5 years, our Computing segment does appear to be gradually taking on larger segment share.

第 7 頁是我們按細分市場劃分的 ATM 收入。與上季度非常相似。然而，在過去 1.5 年裡，我們的計算部門似乎確實逐漸佔據了更大的部門份額。

On Page 8, you will find our ATM revenue by service type. There isn't a significant change here.

在第 8 頁，您將按服務類型查看我們的 ATM 收入。這裡沒有重大變化。

On Page 9, you can see the second quarter results for EMS business and a graphical representation of its market segment allocation. As usual, the second quarter is the dull financial quarter during which not much changes from the first quarter. But in actuality, our EMS business is in the midst of preparing for its seasonal up cycle.

在第 9 頁上，您可以看到 EMS 業務第二季度的業績及其細分市場分配的圖形表示。與往常一樣，第二季度是沉悶的財務季度，與第一季度相比沒有太大變化。但實際上，我們的 EMS 業務正在為季節性上升週期做準備。

During the second quarter, EMS revenues were TWD 60.4 billion, improving TWD 2.7 billion or 5% sequentially, and declining TWD 5.8 billion or 9% year-over-year. Sequentially our EMS business's gross margin improved 1.4 percentage points, while our operating margin improved 1.2 percentage points. The margin improvements were driven primarily from favorable foreign exchange impacts to raw materials, and overall product mix.

第二季度，EMS 收入為新台幣 604 億，環比增加 27 億新台幣，增長 5%；同比下降 58 億新台幣，下降 9%。隨後，我們的 EMS 業務毛利率提高了 1.4 個百分點，營業利潤率提高了 1.2 個百分點。利潤率的提高主要是由於外匯對原材料和整體產品組合的有利影響。

Our EMS second quarter operating profit was TWD 2.1 billion, up TWD 0.8 billion sequentially and down TWD 0.6 billion annually. For our EMS market segment, our Consumer segment picked up as Industrial and Automotive segments declined. This was driven by slightly stronger demand in the current quarter related to our Consumer SiP product and temporarily weaker demand environment related to industrial products. Our Automotive business looks to be impacted by [and] market dynamics.

EMS第二季度營業利潤為新台幣21億，環比增加8億新台幣，同比減少6億新台幣。對於我們的 EMS 細分市場，我們的消費細分市場有所增長，而工業和汽車細分市場則有所下降。這是由於本季度與我們的消費級 SiP 產品相關的需求略強以及與工業產品相關的需求環境暫時疲軟所推動的。我們的汽車業務似乎會受到市場動態的影響。

On Page 10, you will find key line items from our balance sheet. At the end of the quarter, we had cash, cash equivalents and current financial assets of TWD 66.4 billion. Our total interest-bearing debt was down TWD 3.2 billion to TWD 187.1 billion. Total unused credit lines amounted to TWD 384.6 billion.

在第 10 頁，您將找到我們資產負債表中的關鍵項目。截至季末，我們擁有現金、現金等價物和流動金融資產 664 億新台幣。我們的有息債務總額減少了 32 億新台幣，至 1,871 億新台幣。未使用信貸額度總計3,846億新台幣。

Our EBITDA for the quarter was TWD 25.8 billion. Net debt-to-equity was down to 41% at the end of the quarter. We expect our debt position to increase during the third quarter as a result of incremental cash usage to pay our upcoming dividend.

本季度的 EBITDA 為 258 億新台幣。截至本季度末，淨債務股本比下降至 41%。我們預計，由於使用增量現金來支付即將到來的股息，我們的債務狀況將在第三季度增加。

On page 11, you will find our equipment capital expenditures. Machinery and equipment capital expenditures for the second quarter in U.S. dollars totaled $209 million, of which $107 million were used in packaging operations, $60 million in test operations, $33 million in EMS operations and $9 million interconnect material operations and others.

在第 11 頁，您將找到我們的設備資本支出。第二季度機械設備資本支出（以美元計）總計2.09億美元，其中1.07億美元用於封裝業務，6000萬美元用於測試業務，3300萬美元用於EMS業務，900萬美元用於互連材料業務及其他。

Current quarter EBITDA of USD 0.8 billion continues to outpace our equipment capital expenditures of $0.2 billion.

本季度 EBITDA 為 8 億美元，繼續超過我們 2 億美元的設備資本支出。

Before we get to our outlook, I would like to spend a bit of time on what we believe drives our business and touch upon the topic of the moment, AI. Our core business is to provide our customers unprecedented scale and repeatability of manufacturing. With such scale, we are able to achieve the lowest manufacturing cost without compromising quality. Interestingly, this improved scale of manufacturing also delivers the highest packaging yield.

在我們展望未來之前，我想花一些時間談談我們認為推動我們業務發展的因素，並談談當前的主題：人工智能。我們的核心業務是為客戶提供前所未有的規模化和可重複性的製造。憑藉這樣的規模，我們能夠在不影響質量的情況下實現最低的製造成本。有趣的是，這種生產規模的提高也帶來了最高的封裝產量。

We consider this to be our competitive advantage. I've included a rough and very simplified chart related to our business. The X-axis represents the number of package I/Os, and the Y-axis is a smooth exponential scaled estimate of volumes. We've placed some of our offered package types roughly along the X-axis. These package types actually overlap much more than what is shown here. But the basic message follows.

我們認為這是我們的競爭優勢。我提供了一個與我們業務相關的粗略且非常簡化的圖表。 X 軸表示包 I/O 的數量，Y 軸是平滑指數縮放的捲估計。我們將一些提供的封裝類型大致沿 X 軸放置。這些包類型實際上重疊的程度比此處顯示的要多得多。但基本信息如下。

Our business is driven by the center area of the plot, where there are mass volumes. The more units we manufacture of a particular package type, the better able we are to wrap up economies of scale and manufacturing efficiency.

我們的業務是由地塊中心區域驅動的，那裡有大量的體量。我們製造的特定封裝類型的單位越多，我們就越能實現規模經濟和製造效率。

The right side of this curve identifies leading-edge advanced package types. As we've seen time and time again, as the industry adopts higher I/O counts, new package types reach a manufacturing critical mass and start climbing up the curve. This represents when lower-volume R&D lines become suitable to be scaled up for high volume mass production. We're starting to see this with some of our fan-out base packages.

該曲線的右側標識了領先的高級封裝類型。正如我們一次又一次看到的，隨著行業採用更高的 I/O 數量，新的封裝類型達到了製造臨界質量並開始沿著曲線向上攀升。這代表小批量研發線何時適合擴大規模以進行大批量生產。我們開始在一些扇出基礎包中看到這一點。

For us, having substantial capabilities and leading-edge technologies is necessary as we want to be ahead of the curve, quite literally as in this reference to this graph. But the most technologically advanced packages neither drive significant volume nor significant profitability. For the back-end, package technology migration matters, but volume fundamentally determines manufacturing efficiency, and thus for us, profitability.

對於我們來說，擁有強大的能力和領先的技術是必要的，因為我們希望處於領先地位，正如對此圖的引用一樣。但技術最先進的封裝既不能帶來顯著的銷量，也不能帶來顯著的盈利能力。對於後端來說，封裝技術遷移很重要，但數量從根本上決定了製造效率，因此對我們來說也決定了盈利能力。

Now to the business of AI. Recently, we have been frequently asked to comment on our view of AI. Often, these discussions have centered on products that are very specific to the core enablement of AI training.

現在談談人工智能業務。最近，我們經常被要求評論我們對人工智能的看法。通常，這些討論都集中在專門針對人工智能培訓核心支持的產品上。

We understand the excitement and importance of such specific products which are enabling AI development. However, we believe that zeroing in on a couple of specific tip-of-the-iceberg products tend to be somewhat missing the bigger picture.

我們了解此類支持人工智能開發的特定產品的令人興奮和重要性。然而，我們認為，專注於幾個特定的冰山一角產品往往會在某種程度上忽視了更大的前景。

AI's impact on ASE will be much broader and multifaceted than focusing in on specific leading edge units. We believe AI is substantially a much larger phenomenon. We believe AI serves as a catalyst to the next super cycle for the semiconductor industry.

人工智能對 ASE 的影響將比專注於特定的前沿單元更廣泛和多方面。我們相信人工智能本質上是一個更大的現象。我們相信人工智能將成為半導體行業下一個超級週期的催化劑。

At a basic level, AI means more information will be collected, stored and analyzed everywhere and pertaining to anything and everything. From AI's edge data collection to the inference of that data, represents new volumes all along AI's processing chain. Not only do we see incremental product volumes ahead, future AI features will require an incremental step up in capabilities, increasing both die and package level requirements.

從根本上講，人工智能意味著將在任何地方收集、存儲和分析更多與任何事物相關的信息。從人工智能的邊緣數據收集到數據的推理，代表了人工智能處理鏈上的新容量。我們不僅看到未來的產品數量會不斷增加，未來的人工智能功能也將需要逐步提升功能，從而增加芯片和封裝級別的要求。

If we try to show this on our chart here, as incremental complexity ramps, higher I/O counts push the entire curve to the right. As you can see, this step-up will also drive adoption at the leading edge of our vertically integrated solutions. In this graph, the line pushes up for volumes and to the right for the technology step-up.

如果我們嘗試在此處的圖表上顯示這一點，隨著複雜性的增加，I/O 數量的增加會將整個曲線推向右側。正如您所看到的，這一升級還將推動我們垂直集成解決方案前沿的採用。在這張圖中，線向上推則代表成交量，而向右則代表技術進步。

We also see further opportunities for system level complexities that may force further parallel design versus historical monolithic design tendencies. As overall system architecture must accommodate increasingly power hungry applications such as AI, we believe it becomes increasingly necessary to solve power issues near or at the package level. These are all frontiers on the heterogeneous integration roadmap.

我們還看到了系統級複雜性的更多機會，這可能會迫使進一步的並行設計與歷史上的整體設計趨勢相比較。由於整體系統架構必須適應人工智能等日益耗電的應用程序，我們認為解決封裝級附近或封裝級的功耗問題變得越來越有必要。這些都是異構集成路線圖上的前沿。

AI only serves to add to this need and opportunity for us. The chart here extends once again for the potential proliferation of heterogeneous integration, all across our package types. We may see AI as a novelty now, but it will be ubiquitous soon enough.

人工智能只會增加我們的這種需求和機會。這裡的圖表再次擴展了跨我們的軟件包類型的異構集成的潛在擴散。我們現在可能認為人工智能是一個新鮮事物，但它很快就會無處不在。

As we come back to look towards the nearer term, we are seeing a ramp in manufacturing for the coming third quarter across our businesses. It's definitely not the pickup of a typical manufacturing year, but given the entire macro climate, including post-COVID spending patterns, lacklustre China demand and tightening inventory control by our customers, it's a decent start.

當我們回過頭來展望近期時，我們看到我們的業務在未來第三季度的製造業將出現增長。這絕對不是典型的製造業年的回升，但考慮到整個宏觀環境，包括疫情后的支出模式、中國需求低迷以及客戶加強庫存控制，這是一個不錯的開始。

The current year does not look to be the V-shaped recovery that the industry was hoping for. It's looking more like a checkmark with a return to optimal manufacturing, unfortunately, stretching into future quarters.

今年看起來並沒有出現行業所希望的V型複蘇。不幸的是，它看起來更像是一個回歸最佳製造的複選標記，並將持續到未來幾個季度。

From the cost perspective, the coming quarter's cost environment will be impacted by higher summer consumption and 3 full months of higher summer utility rates. Further, we have a smaller set of products ramping in the third quarter as -- versus normal. Given the selective product mix, we see a temporarily higher raw material content environment for the coming third quarter.

從成本角度來看，下一季度的成本環境將受到夏季消費增加和整整三個月夏季公用事業費率上升的影響。此外，與正常情況相比，我們在第三季度推出的產品數量較少。鑑於選擇性的產品組合，我們預計未來第三季度原材料含量會暫時較高。

We would like to summarize our outlook for the third quarter as follows. For our ATM business in NT dollar terms, our ATM third quarter 2023 revenues should grow quarter-over-quarter by mid to high single-digits. Our ATM third quarter 2023 gross margin should improve 75 to 100 basis points versus the second quarter of 2023. For our EMS business in NT dollar terms, our EMS third quarter 2023 revenues should increase 20% quarter-over-quarter. Our EMS third quarter 2023 operating margin should be similar with the second quarter of 2023.

我們對第三季度的展望總結如下。對於我們以新台幣計算的 ATM 業務，我們的 ATM 2023 年第三季度收入應該會環比增長中到高個位數。我們的 ATM 2023 年第三季度毛利率應比 2023 年第二季度提高 75 至 100 個基點。對於以新台幣計算的 EMS 業務，我們 2023 年第三季度的 EMS 收入應環比增長 20%。我們的 EMS 2023 年第三季度營業利潤率應與 2023 年第二季度相似。

This concludes our prepared remarks. We would like to start the Q&A here. Thank you.

我們準備好的發言到此結束。我們想從這裡開始問答。謝謝。

Now we would like to open the floor for questions.(Operator Instructions). We have a question from Mr. Randy Abrams of Credit Suisse.

現在我們開始提問。（操作員說明）。我們有來自瑞士信貸銀行的蘭迪·艾布拉姆斯先生的提問。

I'll ask the first question on the sales guidance. For the IC ATM, it looks like it's tracking fairly close to TSMC, but leading the Tier 2 foundries. Could you discuss a bit more on the split by applications, where you're seeing the incremental growth momentum continuing? And if you see that continuing into fourth quarter?

我會問關於銷售指導的第一個問題。對於IC ATM，看起來它的跟踪相當接近台積電，但領先於二級代工廠。您能否更多地討論一下按應用程序劃分的問題，您認為增量增長勢頭仍在繼續？如果您認為這種情況會持續到第四季度？

And then for EMS, the 20% sequential looks like it's lagging traditional seasonality. Could you talk if it's delayed timing on product ramps, softness in certain applications, or just a timing issue that could help shift some of the business out to fourth quarter?

然後對於 EMS，20% 的環比看起來落後於傳統的季節性。您能否談談是否是產品升級時間延遲、某些應用程序疲軟，或者只是一個可能有助於將部分業務轉移到第四季度的時間問題？

I think for both ATM as well as EMS, the delayed of the -- somewhat delayed new product launches, this has an impact on the second half performance -- revenue performance as the -- we are expecting sequential growth continuing for the second half. Also into fourth quarter, the inventory digestion as well as the weak end market consumption is still continuing. So we are now taking a more conservative outlook on the second half. And so the -- what we're showing here is really the forecast with some judgment with the focus that we got with our own -- some of our own judgment to come up with the numbers.

我認為，對於 ATM 和 EMS 來說，新產品發布的延遲——某種程度上延遲了，這對下半年的業績——收入業績——產生了影響——我們預計下半年將繼續實現環比增長。同樣進入四季度，庫存消化以及終端市場消費疲軟仍在持續。因此，我們現在對下半年的前景持更為保守的態度。因此，我們在這裡展示的實際上是帶有一些判斷的預測，重點是我們自己的一些判斷來得出數字。

For the profitability, you discussed a few impacts on utilities and materials. Could you discuss a little more of the mix? What's driving that short-term material shift? And with the leverage where it's about -- it looks like a (inaudible) too light of kind of a normal pickup with that type of volume. Are there headwinds from pricing environment? How you're seeing pricing or other factors?

對於盈利能力，您討論了對公用事業和材料的一些影響。你能多討論一下這個組合嗎？是什麼推動了短期的物質轉變？就其槓桿作用而言，它看起來像是（聽不清）太輕的那種具有這種音量的普通拾音器。定價環境是否存在阻力？您如何看待定價或其他因素？

I think pricing still remains to be resilient at this point. And going into third quarter, we do have a higher cost structure given the fact that the -- we're in the summer time, and we're subject to summer [rates] for energy and that put some pressure on our margin expansion. Typically, when we see our overall utilization goes up and revenue goes up, the margin should -- expansion should be a bit higher than what we are presenting here. But given the higher energy cost, I think that's putting some pressure on the margin expansion.

我認為目前定價仍保持彈性。進入第三季度，我們確實有更高的成本結構，因為我們正處於夏季，我們受到夏季能源[費率]的影響，這給我們的利潤擴張帶來了一些壓力。通常，當我們看到我們的整體利用率上升並且收入上升時，利潤率應該——擴張應該比我們在這裡展示的略高一些。但考慮到能源成本上升，我認為這給利潤擴張帶來了一些壓力。

And also in terms of product mix, I think some of the higher material content products are being put out in this coming 2 quarters. That's also putting some pressure on the material cost of ours, and therefore, the margin expansion. But I think overall the -- in terms of material content or product mix effect, we'll start to improve in fourth quarter.

在產品組合方面，我認為一些材料含量較高的產品將在未來兩個季度推出。這也給我們的材料成本以及利潤擴張帶來了一些壓力。但我認為總體而言，就材料內容或產品組合效果而言，我們將在第四季度開始改善。

Next question is from Mr. Gokul Hariharan of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan 先生。

My first question is on the state of the inventory cycle. Could you give us a little bit more color on what you're seeing overall on wafer bank inventory? How quickly are customers drawing that down? And also, could you give us some more color on the Q3 revenue guidance of sequential growth? Big segments are driving the growth of mid to high single-digit. Is there any divergence between what you're seeing on your communication platform versus Automotive, Industrial, and Computing?

我的第一個問題是關於庫存週期的狀況。您能給我們更多關於您所看到的晶圓庫庫存的總體情況嗎？客戶用的速度有多快？另外，您能否為我們提供有關第三季度收入環比增長指引的更多信息？大型細分市場正在推動中高個位數的增長。您在通信平台上看到的內容與汽車、工業和計算平台上看到的內容之間是否存在差異？

I think the overall pick up in the third quarter, I think it's across the board throughout all applications. As we see new products coming out, we see Automotive continue to be (inaudible) part for us.

我認為第三季度整體回升，我認為所有應用程序都全面回升。當我們看到新產品問世時，我們看到汽車仍然是我們的（聽不清）一部分。

And the first part of the question?

問題的第一部分？

Wafer bank. I think it's being gradually worked down, but I think the -- nowadays, I think -- all customers, given the soft market condition, I think people are getting more cautious. So the -- I think the inventory digestion will continue for may be the next 2 quarters or even further quarters into the future. But as a whole, I think going into 2024, I think things will start to improve quite a bit, and we are expecting a much more healthier growth here for us in 2024.

晶圓銀行。我認為它正在逐漸減少，但我認為——現在，我認為——所有客戶，考慮到疲軟的市場狀況，我認為人們變得更加謹慎。因此，我認為庫存消化可能會持續到未來兩個季度，甚至未來幾個季度。但總的來說，我認為進入 2024 年，情況將開始有很大改善，我們預計 2024 年我們的增長會更加健康。

My second question is on the AI-related demand. Any estimate of exposure to AI for ASE as of now? I think TSMC talked about roughly 6% of revenue this year. And how are you planning for capacity on AI starting from some of your 2.5D and fan-out-related products to also -- like Ken mentioned, moving into some of the more mainstream higher volume kind of products as well? How are you thinking about -- like when do these products start to kind of kick in into your packaging and testing portfolio?

我的第二個問題是關於人工智能相關的需求。到目前為止，ASE 對 AI 的接觸有任何估計嗎？我認為台積電今年談到了大約6%的收入。你們如何規劃人工智能的容量，從一些 2.5D 和扇出相關產品開始，以及像 Ken 提到的那樣，進入一些更主流的更高容量的產品？您如何考慮——比如這些產品什麼時候開始進入您的封裝和測試產品組合？

Well, I think if we are narrowly defining AI today, the associated revenue for us, it's roughly at the low single-digit of our ATM revenue at this point. But I think more importantly, it's really given time, AI will be adopted into all existing and new applications. Therefore, given time it would create tremendous volume and business opportunities for us, covering all kinds of different chips that will be coming on stream, as Ken has demonstrated in the chart that we've shown earlier on.

嗯，我認為，如果我們今天狹隘地定義人工智能，我們的相關收入，目前大約是我們 ATM 收入的低個位數。但我認為更重要的是，隨著時間的推移，人工智能將被採用到所有現有的和新的應用程序中。因此，假以時日，它將為我們創造巨大的銷量和商機，涵蓋即將投入生產的各種不同芯片，正如肯在我們之前顯示的圖表中所展示的那樣。

In terms of exact timing, I think that's -- it's -- right now, AI is still at its early stage. And I think it will take some time for us to -- for this segment to continue to grow, but not particularly just AI itself. But as AI gets emerged into all different applications, that's when we will start to see explosive -- above volume growth and that -- and driving the whole industry into the next super cycle.

就確切的時間而言，我認為目前人工智能仍處於早期階段。我認為我們需要一些時間才能讓這一領域繼續增長，但不僅僅是人工智能本身。但隨著人工智能出現在所有不同的應用中，那時我們將開始看到爆炸性的增長——超過數量的增長——並推動整個行業進入下一個超級週期。

Next question is from Mr. Brad Lin of BofA.

下一個問題是來自美國銀行的 Brad Lin 先生。

I have a question on advanced packaging. So basically, Ken just mentioned that critical mass is quite important for us to ramp up the advanced packaging capacity. So are we reaching a so-called sweet spot yet? Or when should we expect the company to -- or the industry to reach the sweet spot? And do we have any incremental CapEx plan on it? That's my first question.

我有一個關於先進封裝的問題。基本上，肯剛剛提到臨界質量對於我們提高先進封裝產能非常重要。那麼我們已經達到所謂的最佳點了嗎？或者我們什麼時候應該期望公司或行業達到最佳狀態？我們是否有任何增量資本支出計劃？這是我的第一個問題。

Well, it will definitely go into that stage, and we are preparing ourselves by keeping us at the forefront of the technology development. We will be making the necessary investment as we see fit when the time comes. And exactly when it will start to happen, I think it will be a progressive – we will take steps and [it] will progressive -- very nicely going forward. We do have the capacity in place, meeting different kinds of requirements, but what we're waiting for is for the volume to start the increase and to grow, and we will make our necessary investment accordingly.

嗯，它肯定會進入那個階段，我們正在做好準備，讓我們保持在技術發展的最前沿。時機成熟時，我們將進行我們認為合適的必要投資。確切地說，當它開始發生時，我認為這將是一個進步——我們將採取措施，[它]將會進步——非常順利地向前推進。我們確實有能力滿足不同類型的需求，但我們等待的是數量開始增加並增長，我們將相應地進行必要的投資。

So also, we have learned from UMC's call yesterday about the -- its collaboration with ASE and some IC design service firms on a so-called open ecosystem for advanced packaging. So would you please share the pros and cons associated with this open system that ASE and UMC are forming? And also -- would you please also provide some insights into the so-called optimal [operation] model versus the current dominant close system by TSMC?

同樣，我們從聯電昨天的電話中了解到，它與日月光和一些 IC 設計服務公司就所謂的先進封裝開放生態系統進行了合作。那麼您能否分享一下 ASE 和 UMC 正在形成的這個開放系統的優缺點？另外，您能否提供一些關於所謂的最佳[操作]模型與台積電當前占主導地位的封閉系統的見解？

Well, we're definitely one of – we're definitely the initiator of the collaboration, particularly on the interposer. And this is a major component of the overall chip and wafer type of process. And -- so we are collaborating with the foundries to complete the full process for us. And on top of that, we also have our own solution focus that is progressing well. We have very active engagement with a lot of -- quite a few of our customers, and we believe mass production will start soon going to the later part of the year or maybe early next year.

嗯，我們絕對是其中之一——我們絕對是合作的發起者，特別是在中介層方面。這是整個芯片和晶圓類型工藝的主要組成部分。而且——所以我們正在與鑄造廠合作，為我們完成整個過程。最重要的是，我們還有自己的解決方案重點，進展順利。我們與很多客戶進行了非常積極的接觸，我們相信批量生產很快就會在今年下半年或明年初開始。

Next question is from Mr. Rick Hsu of Daiwa.

下一個問題是來自Daiwa的Rick Hsu先生。

First question is just a very general housekeeping question. (technical difficulty) [rate] across the board that your packaging test in Q2 and Q3?

第一個問題只是一個非常普遍的內務問題。 （技術難度）【率】Q2、Q3你們的封裝測試一刀切？

Q2, we are roughly at 60% across the board. And going to Q3, given the pick of our business, we believe the average utilization will be hovering around 65%.

第二季度，我們的整體進度大約為 60%。到第三季度，考慮到我們的業務選擇，我們相信平均利用率將徘徊在 65% 左右。

Second question is just a quick follow-up on this open ecosystem. You guys -- cooperation with the foundries like UMC producing the interposer, and you guys are in charge of the back-end services like [covers] and 2.5D and 3D. A further follow-up is do you guys have any -- do you have any exposure right now in the core GPU area for the covers ? Any participants in this area for capitalizing the AI server demand growth?

第二個問題只是對這個開放生態系統的快速跟進。你們——和聯電這樣的代工廠合作生產中介層，你們負責後端服務，比如[封面]和2.5D和3D。進一步的後續問題是你們現在在封面的核心 GPU 區域有任何曝光嗎？該領域是否有參與者利用人工智能服務器需求的增長？

Well, right now, the AI-related exposure is still low. We have -- as I mentioned earlier on, a single -- low single-digit percentage of our overall ATM revenue. Not commenting on the specific products, but we are defining this as our leading edge packaging technology that that's AI related. I think mostly in the networking, in HPC type of applications. And I think the potential of this business is also pretty good. I think going next year we could probably see this part of the -- or this particular segment of business should easily double for -- in next year.

嗯，目前人工智能相關的曝光度還很低。正如我之前提到的，我們 ATM 總收入的百分比很低。我們不對具體產品發表評論，但我們將其定義為與人工智能相關的領先封裝技術。我認為主要是在網絡、高性能計算類型的應用程序中。而且我覺得這個業務的潛力也是相當不錯的。我認為明年我們可能會看到這一部分——或者這個特定的業務部門應該很容易在明年翻一番。

Next question is from Sunny Lin of UBS.

下一個問題是瑞銀 (UBS) 的 Sunny Lin 提出的。

So my first question is about longer term. And so obviously, last few years, ASE has been outperforming the [semi]industry probably because of the share gain and customer supply diversification. And so I wonder, now looking ahead, how much of the growth upside you think ASE could continue to realize? Meanwhile, China [auto] companies are also expanding overseas. So would that affect ASEs opportunity to some extent?

所以我的第一個問題是關於長期的。顯然，過去幾年，日月光的表現一直優於[半]行業，這可能是因為份額增長和客戶供應多元化。所以我想知道，現在展望未來，您認為 ASE 可以繼續實現多少增長空間？與此同時，中國汽車企業也在海外擴張。那麼這會在某種程度上影響 ASE 的機會嗎？

Well, definitely, we're the clear leader in our space, and we will continue to gain shares going forward, leveraging on our scale and our technology competencies as well as our proximity to the foundries, particularly on these more advanced technology that's coming on stream.

嗯，毫無疑問，我們是該領域明顯的領導者，並且我們將繼續利用我們的規模和技術能力以及我們與代工廠的距離，特別是在即將出現的這些更先進的技術方面，繼續獲得份額。溪流。

Going forward, I think geographical expansion will continue. That's really the going trend as we see demand starting to polarize between China and outside China. On that, we do have very good footprints around the world. We are currently expanding in Malaysia, in Poland, in Korea, in Japan as we see fit or as required by our customer. When we see business opportunity that we -- that justifies our expansion, we will continue to do so. And I think…

展望未來，我認為地域擴張將會繼續。這確實是當前的趨勢，因為我們看到中國和國外的需求開始兩極分化。在這一點上，我們確實在世界各地留下了很好的足跡。我們目前正在馬來西亞、波蘭、韓國、日本進行擴張，只要我們認為合適或根據客戶的要求。當我們看到商業機會證明我們的擴張是合理的時，我們將繼續這樣做。我認為……

Sorry.

對不起。

Obviously, the Chinese will do the same, but then given the scale and also the leadership of ours in all aspects, I think, we will continue to outcompete our peers wherever they are.

顯然，中國人也會這樣做，但考慮到我們在各個方面的規模和領導力，我認為，我們將繼續超越我們的同行，無論他們在哪裡。

I recall previously the company had a growth target to grow about 2x of the large SMEs. Is that still a value target that we could continue to anticipate?

我記得之前該公司的增長目標是大型中小企業的兩倍左右。這仍然是我們可以繼續預期的價值目標嗎？

Yes. Well, of course, 2023 is a very different year because we are all going through a very challenging year. But as I mentioned, I think, going into 2024, things will start to pick up and will go to a much more healthier condition. And our target is to continue to grow twice the [logic] semi-growth.

是的。當然，2023 年是非常不同的一年，因為我們都在經歷非常具有挑戰性的一年。但正如我所提到的，我認為進入 2024 年，情況將開始好轉，並將走向更加健康的狀態。我們的目標是繼續增長兩倍於[邏輯]半增長。

Next question is from Liyen Chen of Citigroup.

下一個問題是花旗集團的 Liyen Chen 提出的。

My first question is actually about our IC ATM growth margin outlook. We know that this year we still see the inventory correction continue. But previously, we are looking for like mid 20% to 30% gross margin for IC ATM. So I'm just wondering that what kind of utilization rate we can reach that level? And also considering that we are also doing some advanced packaging for the AI chip. So I'm just wondering that for that kind of business, what the -- will that be a margin dilution for the overall IC ITM business?

我的第一個問題實際上是關於我們的 IC ATM 增長率前景。我們知道，今年庫存調整仍在繼續。但此前，我們希望 IC ATM 的毛利率達到 20% 至 30% 左右。所以我只是想知道我們能達到什麼樣的利用率才能達到這個水平？而且考慮到我們也在為AI芯片做一些先進的封裝。所以我只是想知道，對於此類業務，整個 IC ITM 業務的利潤率會被稀釋嗎？

Right now, the -- what we call the leading edge technology or leading edge packaging, I think the overall profitability as well as return, is actually above corporate average. And in terms of the structural margin that we mentioned before, I think it takes us to go to a utilization rate of around 70%. Anything below that will be very difficult for us to reach that structural margin.

目前，我們所說的領先技術或領先包裝，我認為整體盈利能力和回報實際上高於企業平均水平。就我們之前提到的結構性利潤而言，我認為我們需要達到 70% 左右的利用率。低於這個水平，我們就很難達到結構性利潤。

And also on the EMS business, I think just following -- Randy previously also asked about the seasonality into Q3 seems to be milder than historical. So just wondering that is that just due to the muted demand? Or we see any significant delay for the new product launch in second half?

關於 EMS 業務，我認為蘭迪之前也詢問過第三季度的季節性似乎比歷史溫和。所以只是想知道這只是因為需求低迷嗎？或者我們認為下半年新產品的推出會出現明顯的延遲嗎？

No, I think it's just overall the muted demand that's causing the weaker seasonality -- seasonal pickup for our EMS business. But typically, if you look at a whole year from a quarter-to-quarter, typically, the third quarter will be the peak quarter. And at this time around, I think -- not trying to be the spokesman for our customer, I think the market knowledge about some of the products seems to be launched later than normal, does have some impact in terms of some of the order being pushed back to fourth quarter. So I think this year will be a little bit different from -- on a quarter-to-quarter performance perspective.

不，我認為整體需求疲軟導致了季節性疲軟——我們的 EMS 業務出現季節性回升。但通常情況下，如果你按季度查看全年，通常情況下，第三季度將是高峰季度。此時此刻，我認為 - 並不是試圖成為我們客戶的代言人，我認為有關某些產品的市場知識似乎比正常情況下推出得晚，確實對某些訂單產生了一些影響推遲到第四季度。所以我認為，從季度業績的角度來看，今年會有點不同。

Our next question is from Zheng Lu of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的鄭路。

Let's start with some easy ones. So I think 3 months ago, you talked about the ATM business kind of declined by high single-digit to low teens. As we get closer to the end, can you give us some outlook for the full year for the ATM business?

讓我們從一些簡單的開始。所以我認為三個月前，您談到 ATM 業務出現了高個位數到低雙位數的下降。隨著年底的臨近，您能否給我們介紹一下全年 ATM 業務的展望？

Yes. I think it's going to be low teens to mid-teens.

是的。我認為這將是十幾歲到十幾歲左右。

So based on this kind of low-teens to mid-teens, we should see what kind of profitability?

那麼基於這種低十幾歲到中十幾歲的水平，我們應該看到什麼樣的盈利能力？

I think it will be a substructure margin.

我認為這將是一個子結構利潤。

Then I still go back to the advanced packaging business. I do acknowledge that you guys talked about a larger addressable market for the AI potential business. But which part of the AI packaging business will have faster growth for ASE? I mean for the real advance one, for the [covers] one or for the wafer or chip? Which one will have some higher profitability? And in terms of like covers or related packaging business, what's your return threshold and margin threshold for you to continue to invest a lot more -- invest more for this business?

那我還是回到先進封裝業務上來。我確實承認你們談論了人工智能潛在業務的更大潛在市場。但日月光AI封裝業務中哪一部分的增長速度更快呢？我的意思是對於真正的先進產品，對於[封面]還是對於晶圓或芯片？哪一個的盈利能力會更高一些？就類似封面或相關包裝業務而言，您的回報閾值和利潤閾值是多少，您才能繼續加大投入——為這項業務投入更多資金？

We're not still trying to figure out what kind of return that we can get out of the full process of [covers]. I think that's depending on a lot of different factors, most importantly, whether we have a stable volume that we're going through. We will have -- how wide the adoption will be. And I mean the customer will be using that, so we can diversify the risk.

我們還沒有試圖弄清楚我們可以從[涵蓋]的整個過程中獲得什麼樣的回報。我認為這取決於很多不同的因素，最重要的是，我們是否擁有穩定的交易量。我們將了解採用的範圍有多大。我的意思是客戶會使用它，所以我們可以分散風險。

And there are a lot of factors that have been considered. I don't think that it's now at a more as mature stage as we expect. So I think the -- how much or how soon we will start investing into full process of covers , it really depends on the situation that we're looking at. Right now, we do have some covers capacity, but that helps maintain our technology prior acquisition. But for the -- I think the real bread and butter for us is really once the AI starts to proliferate into other applications going into automotive, communication, computing, all sorts of new applications. And that's where we're going to see the mainstream packages being started to be required for these ships. And that's where the volume is. And I think that will be the main investment area that we'll be focusing on.

而且考慮的因素很多。我認為它現在還沒有達到我們預期的成熟階段。所以我認為——我們將開始投資多少或多久開始投資於整個封面過程，這實際上取決於我們正在考慮的情況。目前，我們確實擁有一些覆蓋能力，但這有助於維持我們在收購之​​前的技術。但對於 - 我認為對我們來說真正的麵包和黃油確實是一旦人工智能開始擴散到其他應用程序，進入汽車、通信、計算和各種新應用程序。這就是我們將看到這些船舶開始需要主流軟件包的地方。這就是音量所在。我認為這將是我們重點關注的主要投資領域。

Next question is from Szeho Ng of China Renaissance.

下一個問題來自華興資本的吳思豪。

2 questions. First one regarding this year's CapEx budget, can you provide us an update? And in what areas we are spending CapEx budgetary money?

2 個問題。第一個關於今年的資本支出預算，您能給我們提供最新情況嗎？我們將資本支出預算資金花在哪些領域？

I think the CapEx for equipment, our guidance, it remains the same as 3 months ago. In terms of its breakdown, I think roughly 55%, 56% will be for assembly and the bulk of it is for always packaging and roughly 25% for test, and then 15% or so for EMS, and then another 3% for material.

我認為設備的資本支出，我們的指導，與 3 個月前相同。就其細分而言，我認為大約 55%、56% 將用於組裝，其中大部分用於始終包裝，大約 25% 用於測試，然後 15% 左右用於 EMS，然後另外 3% 用於材料。

And then going forward in the next couple of years, should we expect the CapEx intensity to rise because of our more involvement in the advanced packaging area?

那麼未來幾年，我們是否應該預期資本支出強度會因為我們更多地涉足先進封裝領域而上升？

Yes. Really -- again, it really depends on where the volume is and where we should be investing. But all in all, I think given the fact that this year, we have been fairly cautious and conservative about our CapEx, and we're expecting growth to start resume next year. I believe the capital investment or CapEx for next year will be somewhat higher.

是的。真的——再說一遍，這確實取決於交易量以及我們應該投資的地方。但總而言之，我認為考慮到今年，我們對資本支出相當謹慎和保守，我們預計明年將開始恢復增長。我相信明年的資本投資或資本支出會更高一些。

Next question is from Mr. Gokul Hariharan of JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan 先生。

My question is that we are seeing a lot of capacity expansion on the front end happening in China, especially for holder technologies. What do you envisage for ASE? Do you think that you will also -- you will kind of miss out on that potential packaging demand given you have lesser exposure in China today? And is that potentially a competitive threat down the line, given that we are seeing some of that competitive threat emerge for the foundry side at this point in time? How do you see this evolve? Because we had a view maybe about 1 year back that the market is kind of becoming a little bit more divergent between China and non-China. You still think that's the case? Or you think some of the -- given that there is a lot of capacity getting built in China, even some of the non-China [fabless] companies will eventually go back, find their way back to the China capacity to leverage the lower pricing?

我的問題是，我們看到中國前端產能大量擴張，尤其是支架技術。您對 ASE 有什麼期望？鑑於您目前在中國的曝光度較低，您是否認為您也會錯過潛在的包裝需求？鑑於我們此時看到代工方面出現了一些競爭威脅，這是否是潛在的競爭威脅？您如何看待這種演變？因為大約一年前我們有一個觀點，即中國和非中國市場之間的分歧越來越大。你仍然認為是這樣嗎？或者你認為，考慮到中國正在建設大量產能，甚至一些非中國[無晶圓廠]公司最終也會回去，找到回到中國產能的途徑，以利用較低的定價？

Well, I think the demand is diverged at this point. And -- but that also creates a lot of requirements in China for localization. And so we are seeing that. And we do have our -- aside from selling our 4 factories 2 years ago, we still remain to have a very sizable operation in Suzhou, which we can accommodate the -- whatever the opportunity there is. Plus the Suzhou factory that we have is of more advanced technology and more higher yield and efficiency. So I think it's a very, very competitive operation of ours in China to address the local demand.

嗯，我認為目前需求存在分歧。而且——但這也對中國的本地化提出了很多要求。我們也看到了這一點。我們確實有——除了兩年前出售我們的 4 家工廠之外，我們仍然在蘇州擁有規模很大的業務，無論有什麼機會，我們都可以容納。再加上我們擁有的蘇州工廠技術更先進，產量和效率更高。因此，我認為我們在中國的業務非常非常有競爭力，可以滿足當地的需求。

As we are also seeing that a lot of investment being put in China is for the mainstream technology type of products. And so we do feel that there is a fairly good potential in that area as well. So I don't know if you all are aware that we are investing into the combination of our -- I should have put this -- We are putting back some of our investment into the 4 factories that we sold. That 4 factories is now combining with another entity today.

我們也看到，在中國投入的大量投資是針對主流技術類型的產品。所以我們確實認為該領域也有相當好的潛力。所以我不知道你們是否都知道我們正在投資於我們的組合——我應該這麼說——我們正在將部分投資重新投入到我們出售的 4 家工廠中。今天，這 4 家工廠正在與另一家實體合併。

So we are taking a two-pronged approach. One is using our own facility, leveraging our own facility to capture some of the opportunity for the more advanced type of demand and also some minority interest in the 4 factories that we sold and continue to benefit or to share some of the prospects in the mainstream or the legacy kind of demand in China, which has a fairly good potential at this point.

因此，我們採取雙管齊下的方法。一是利用我們自己的設施，利用我們自己的設施來捕捉一些更高級類型需求的機會，以及我們出售的4家工廠中的一些少數股權，並繼續受益或分享主流中的一些前景或者是中國的傳統需求，目前具有相當好的潛力。

And just a further question on the AI-related demand. For the cohost like technologies, what portion of the demand does ASE expect to kind of fulfill next year? Do you expect to -- I think TSMC talked about expansion of their own capacity and they probably account for the vast majority of the capacity right now. But what percentage of like -- roughly how much of that demand does ASE expect to satisfy once you start bringing some of your capacity online next year?

還有一個關於人工智能相關需求的進一步問題。對於類似技術，ASE 預計明年能滿足哪一部分需求？你是否期望——我認為台積電談到了他們自己產能的擴張，他們現在可能佔據了絕大多數產能。但是，一旦明年開始將部分產能上線，ASE 預計能滿足大約多少比例的需求？

I think -- by and large, I think most of the demand will still have to be satisfied by the foundry itself because this type of technology or process is mostly wafer process, and I think they should be taking the leading role on this. And -- but as we've been saying all along, as time goes by, as the technology becomes more mature, the adoption becomes wider and the multi-customer using that and volume becomes more stable and much bigger in size, there will be a natural division of works between us and the foundry. And without specifying what kind of share we will be having, I think that is the going trend. It really depends on how much demand there is and what's the suitable working model between us and the foundry to share the work and to satisfy the demand.

我認為，總的來說，我認為大部分需求仍然必須由代工廠本身來滿足，因為這種類型的技術或工藝主要是晶圓工藝，我認為他們應該在這方面發揮主導作用。而且 - 但正如我們一直以來所說的，隨著時間的推移，隨著技術變得更加成熟，採用範圍變得更廣泛，使用該技術的多客戶以及數量變得更加穩定且規模更大，將會有我們和鑄造廠之間的工作自然分工。在沒有具體說明我們將擁有什麼樣的份額的情況下，我認為這是當前的趨勢。這實際上取決於有多少需求以及我們和代工廠之間分擔工作並滿足需求的合適工作模式是什麼。

Next question is from Mr. Zheng Lu of Goldman Sachs.

接下來的問題是高盛鄭路先生提出的。

Can I know what's the CapEx for the second half? And what's the CapEx allocation for 2.5D packaging in the second half.

我能知道下半年的資本支出是多少嗎？下半年2.5D封裝的資本支出分配是多少？

I think for second half, our overall CapEx will be in the range of TWD 580 million to TWD 600 million.

我認為下半年，我們的整體資本支出將在新台幣 5.8 億至新台幣 6 億之間。

For 2 quarters?

2個季度？

For 2 quarters, yes -- No, for the second half.

對於兩個季度，是的——不，對於下半年。

And location?

和位置？

We are not commenting on the 2.5D CapEx at this point

我們目前不對 2.5D 資本支出發表評論

So what's the threshold for you to invest more in the 2.5D?

那麼您在2.5D上投入更多的門檻是多少？

As I said, the business has to justify the investment. Economic...

正如我所說，企業必須證明投資的合理性。經濟的...

What is the threshold?

門檻是多少？

What is the threshold? Well, in terms of margin, in terms of the lifespan, in terms of the return, it has to be above the corporate average.

門檻是多少？嗯，就利潤而言，就使用壽命而言，就回報而言，它必須高於企業平均水平。

But it looks like the revenue is going all in a meaningful way, believe that or not, but that's the current outlook for all of the project.

但不管你信不信，看起來收入都在以有意義的方式發展，但這就是整個項目的當前前景。

Yes.

是的。

It seems to me that you are not aggressive in terms of investing in these 2 systems.

在我看來，你們對這兩個系統的投資並不積極。

Like I said, we are not focusing and we should not be focusing on the these so-called AI chips as narrowly defined, which maybe includes CPU, GPU, or AI accelerators. I think that's really just the catalyst of our business expansion going forward. So that's really not the part that we should be focusing our investment in. Once it gets to proliferate into other applications then volume be created for the -- our mainstream packaging and test, that's really when we start to invest in a major way. So I don't think it's wise to just focusing on the -- this [covers] or 2.5D specifically because that's -- we will be missing out the whole -- the full picture here.

就像我說的，我們沒有也不應該關注狹義上的這些所謂的人工智能芯片，這些芯片可能包括CPU、GPU或人工智能加速器。我認為這確實是我們未來業務擴張的催化劑。所以這確實不是我們應該重點投資的部分。一旦它擴散到其他應用程序中，然後為我們的主流封裝和測試創建容量，那才是我們真正開始進行重大投資的時候。所以我認為只關注這個[覆蓋]或 2.5D 是不明智的，因為我們會錯過這裡的整體情況。

And one more question is what's the -- what do you think about the system level testing business? What's the revenue contribution from SLP for you? And is that a growing business? Is that a profitability business? Is that a high ROE business for you in the future?

還有一個問題是——您對系統級測試業務有何看法？ SLP 為您帶來的收入貢獻是多少？這是一項不斷增長的業務嗎？這是盈利業務嗎？這對你們來說是未來高 ROE 的業務嗎？

Well, we do have system level test, and it's making a reasonable return. Just like every other business, as we see, there is real business potential. There is enough return for us to make, and then we'll make the necessary investment.

嗯，我們確實進行了系統級測試，並且正在取得合理的回報。正如我們所看到的，就像所有其他企業一樣，存在真正的商業潛力。我們可以獲得足夠的回報，然後我們將進行必要的投資。

(Operator Instructions). There is no more question.

（操作員說明）。沒有更多的問題了。

Okay. Thank you, everybody. And hopefully we will clear some of the concerns or questions you may or may not have. And we -- I think we had a decent second quarter and we'll have a decent second half to look after as well. So thank you very much. We will be seeing you next quarter.

好的。謝謝大家。希望我們能夠消除您可能有或沒有的一些疑慮或問題。我認為我們第二季度表現不錯，下半年也將有不錯的表現。非常感謝。我們下個季度再見。