日月光投資控股 (ASX) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Hello. I am Ken Hsiang, the Head of Investor Relations for ASE Technology Holdings. Welcome to our Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Release. Thank you for attending our conference call today.

你好。我是日月光科技控股有限公司投資者關係主管 Ken Hsiang。歡迎閱讀我們的 2023 年第三季財報發布。感謝您參加我們今天的電話會議。

Please refer to our Safe Harbor notice on page 2. All participants consent to having their voices and questions broadcast via participation in this event. If participants do not consent, please disconnect at this time. I would like to remind everyone that the presentation that follows may contain forward looking statements. These forward looking statements are subject to a high degree of risk and our actual results may differ materially.

請參閱第 2 頁的安全港通知。所有參與者都同意透過參加本次活動來表達他們的聲音和問題。如果參與者不同意，請此時斷開連線。我想提醒大家，接下來的演示可能包含前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述面臨高度風險，我們的實際結果可能有重大差異。

For the purposes of this presentation, dollar figures are generally stated in New Taiwan dollars unless otherwise indicated. As a Taiwan-based company, our financial information is presented in accordance with Taiwan IFRS. Results presented using Taiwan IFRS may differ materially from results using other accounting standards, including those presented by our subsidiary using Chinese GAAP.

出於本演示的目的，除非另有說明，美元數字通常以新台幣表示。身為台灣公司，我們的財務資料依照台灣國際財務報告準則呈報。使用台灣國際財務報告準則所呈現的結果可能與使用其他會計準則呈現的結果有重大差異，包括我們的子公司使用中國公認會計準則呈現的結果。

I am joined today by Joseph Tung, our CFO. For today's session, I will be giving the prepared remarks. Joseph will then be available to take your questions during the Q&A session that follows.

今天我們的財務長 Joseph Tung 也加入了我的行列。在今天的會議上，我將發表準備好的演講。約瑟夫將在接下來的問答環節回答您的問題。

The overall environment for our businesses during the third quarter was relatively soft from a historical perspective. Devices related to new communications products introduced during the quarter generated a small pickup in demand. But by and large, the post-COVID inventory digestion and suboptimal demand environment continued.

從歷史角度來看，第三季我們的整體業務環境相對疲軟。本季推出的與新通訊產品相關的設備需求小幅回升。但整體而言，疫情後的庫存消化和次優需求環境仍在持續。

For the third quarter, both our ATM and EMS businesses saw mild seasonal upticks. Our ATM business results were on the higher side of our expectations. We believe this is primarily attributable to higher than expected unplanned orders. In this soft loading environment, our customers have become more cautious when booking regular production forecasts on the expectation that there would be more capacity available when needed. We do to a certain extent try to apply an unplanned order rate to our outlooks, but for the third quarter, unplanned orders were a bit higher than expected. These unplanned orders were sporadic and disparate and not isolated to any particular product type or market segment. For our ATM factories during the quarter, key equipment utilization rates were still relatively low, averaging out in the mid-60s. Our EMS businesses pickup was slightly below our initial expectation. We believe this was due to some loading being pushed out into the fourth quarter.

第三季度，我們的 ATM 和 EMS 業務均出現季節性溫和成長。我們的 ATM 業務表現高於我們的預期。我們認為這主要是由於計劃外訂單高於預期。在這種軟裝載環境下，我們的客戶在預訂定期生產預測時變得更加謹慎，因為他們期望在需要時會有更多可用產能。我們確實在一定程度上嘗試將計劃外訂單率應用於我們的前景，但第三季的計劃外訂單略高於預期。這些計劃外訂單是零星且分散的，並不孤立於任何特定的產品類型或細分市場。本季我們的 ATM 工廠關鍵設備利用率仍然較低，平均在 60 多歲左右。我們的 EMS 業務成長率略低於我們最初的預期。我們認為這是由於部分負荷被推遲到第四季度所致。

With that, please turn to page three where you will find our third quarter consolidated results. For the third quarter, we recorded fully diluted EPS of TWD 2 and basic EPS of TWD 2.04. Consolidated net revenues increased 13% sequentially and declined 18% year-over-year. We had a gross profit of TWD 24.9 billion with a gross margin of 16.2%. Our gross margin improved by 0.2 percentage points sequentially and declined by 3.9 percentage points year-over-year. The sequential improvement in margin is principally due to higher ATM business loading in the current quarter, offset in part by higher EMS revenue mix. The annual decline in gross margin is principally the result of lower loading during the current downturn.

接下來，請翻到第三頁，您將在其中找到我們第三季的綜合業績。第三季度，我們錄得完全攤薄每股收益 2 新台幣，基本每股收益 2.04 新台幣。合併淨收入季增 13%，年減 18%。毛利為新台幣249億元，毛利率為16.2%。毛利率季增0.2個百分點，較去年同期下降3.9個百分點。利潤率的環比改善主要是由於本季 ATM 業務負荷增加，但 EMS 收入組合的增加部分抵消了這一影響。毛利率的年度下降主要是由於當前經濟低迷期間負荷下降所致。

Our operating expenses increased by TWD 1.2 billion sequentially and declined by TWD 0.8 billion annually. The sequential increase in operating expenses are primarily due to higher profit sharing expenses and miscellaneous increases such as DNA, factory supplies and others. The year-over-year decline was primarily attributable to lower bonus and profit sharing expenses across the company. Our operating expense percentage declined 0.2 percentage points sequentially and increased 1.2 percentage points year-over-year to 8.8%. The sequential operating expense percentage decrease was primarily related to lower salary and bonus costs relative to revenues generated. The annual operating expense increase is primarily due to higher mix of ATM business during the quarter. Operating profit was TWD 11.4 billion, up TWD 2 billion sequentially and down $12.3 billion year-over-year. Operating margin was 7.4%, improving 0.5 percentage points sequentially and declining 5.2 percentage points year-over-year. During the quarter, we had a net non-operating gain of TWD 0.8 billion. Our non-operating gain for the quarter primarily consists of net foreign exchange hedging activities, profits from associates and other non-operating income, offset by net interest expense of TWD 1.2 billion. Tax expense for the quarter was TWD 2.9 billion, net of a one-time capital gain tax of TWD 0.7 billion. Our effective tax rate was 18.1%. We believe our full year effective tax rate to still be about 21%.

營業費用較上季增加 12 億新台幣，每年減少 8 億新台幣。營運費用較上月增加主要是因為利潤分享費用增加以及DNA、工廠供應等雜項增加。年比下降的主要原因是整個公司的獎金和利潤分享費用減少。我們的營業費用百分比季減 0.2 個百分點，較去年同期上升 1.2 個百分點至 8.8%。營業費用百分比連續下降主要與相對於所產生收入的工資和獎金成本降低有關。年度營運費用增加主要是由於本季 ATM 業務組合增加。營業利潤為新台幣 114 億，較上一季增加 20 億新台幣，較去年同期減少 123 億美元。營業利益率為 7.4%，季增 0.5 個百分點，較去年同期下降 5.2 個百分點。本季度，我們的營業外淨收益為 8 億新台幣。我們本季的營業外收益主要包括淨外匯對沖活動、聯營公司利潤和其他營業外收入，被 12 億新台幣的淨利息支出所抵銷。本季稅務支出 29 億新台幣，扣除一次性資本利得稅 7 億新台幣。我們的有效稅率為 18.1%。我們認為全年有效稅率仍約為 21%。

Net income for the quarter was TWD 8.7 billion, representing an increase of TWD 1.1 billion sequentially and a decline of TWD 8.8 billion year-over-year. The NT dollar depreciated 2.9% against the US dollar sequentially during the third quarter and 4.5% annually. From a sequential perspective, we estimate the NT dollar depreciation had a 0.8 percentage point positive impact to the company's gross and operating margins. From a year-over-year perspective, we estimate that the depreciating NT dollar had a 1.2 percentage point positive impact to gross and operating margins. As the rule of thumb, for every percent the NT dollar appreciates, we see a corresponding 0.27 percentage point impact to our holding company gross margin.

本季淨利為新台幣 87 億，季增 11 億新台幣，年減 88 億新台幣。新台幣兌美元第三季貶值2.9%，年減4.5%。從環比來看，我們估計新台幣貶值對公司毛利率和營業利益率有0.8個百分點的正面影響。從年比來看，我們估計新台幣貶值對毛利率和營業利潤率產生了 1.2 個百分點的正面影響。根據經驗，新台幣每公升值1%，我們的控股公司毛利率就會相應受到0.27個百分點的影響。

On the bottom of the page, we provide key P&L line items without the inclusion of PPA related expenses. Consolidated gross profit excluding PPA expenses would be TWD 25.8 billion with a 16.8% gross margin. Operating profit would be TWD 12.6 billion with an operating margin of 8.2%. Net profit would be TWD 9.9 billion with a net margin of 6.4%. Basic EPS excluding PPA expenses would be TWD 2.31.

在頁面底部，我們提供了關鍵的損益行項目，不包括 PPA 相關費用。扣除購電協議費用後的綜合毛利將為新台幣 258 億，毛利率為 16.8%。營業利益為新台幣 126 億元，營業利益率為 8.2%。淨利潤為新台幣 99 億，淨利率為 6.4%。不包括 PPA 費用的基本 EPS 為新台幣 2.31。

On page 4 is a graphical presentation of our consolidated financial performance. As you can see here, the current correction appears to have had a stronger impact on our ATM business than our EMS business. Our traditionally strong third quarter ATM revenues are just now near our first quarter 2022 levels.

第 4 頁是我們綜合財務績效的圖形展示。正如您在這裡所看到的，目前的調整似乎對我們的 ATM 業務的影響比對 EMS 業務的影響更大。我們傳統上強勁的第三季 ATM 收入目前已接近 2022 年第一季的水平。

On page 5 is our ATM P&L. It is worth noting here that the ATM revenue reported contains revenue eliminated at the holding company level related to intercompany transactions between our ATM and EMS businesses. For the third quarter 2023, revenues for our ATM business were TWD 83.7 billion, up TWD 7.6 billion from the previous quarter and down TWD 15.1 billion from the same period last year. This represents a 10% improvement sequentially and a 15.3% decline annually. Gross profit for our ATM business was TWD 18.6 billion, up TWD 2.4 billion sequentially and down TWD 10.2 billion year-over-year. Gross profit margin for our ATM business was 22.2%, up 1 percentage point sequentially and down 7 percentage points year-over-year. Gross margin was on the higher side of our expectations. The sequential margin improvement is the result of improved scales of efficiency from higher loading, offset in part by slightly higher summer utility consumption and outsourced services, while the annual margin decline is primarily the result of lower loading due to the current downturn.

第 5 頁是我們的 ATM 損益表。值得注意的是，報告的 ATM 收入包含在控股公司層級抵消的與我們的 ATM 和 EMS 業務之間的公司間交易相關的收入。 2023年第三季度，ATM業務收入為新台幣837億，較上季增加76億新台幣，比去年同期減少151億新台幣。這意味著比上一季提高了 10%，而每年則下降了 15.3%。 ATM業務毛利為新台幣186億元，較上季增加24億元新台幣，較去年同期減少102億元新台幣。 ATM業務毛利率為22.2%，季增1個百分點，較去年同期下降7個百分點。毛利率高於我們的預期。連續利潤率的提高是由於負荷增加而提高效率規模的結果，部分被夏季公用事業消耗和外包服務略有增加所抵消，而年度利潤率下降主要是由於當前經濟低迷導致負荷降低的結果。

During the third quarter, operating expenses were TWD 9.8 billion, up TWD 1 billion sequentially and down TWD 0.4 billion year-over-year. The sequential increase in operating expenses was primarily driven by higher compensation based expenses and higher R&D related factory supplies. The annual operating expense decline was driven primarily by lower profit sharing and bonus, offset in part by higher R&D related costs. Our operating expense percentage for the quarter was 11.7%, up 0.2 percentage points sequentially and up 1.4 percentage points annually. Sequential operating expense percentage increased as a result of higher R&D and compensation related costs. The annual increase was due to lower loading and thus lower operating leverage. During the third quarter, operating profit was TWD 8.8 billion, representing an increase of TWD 1.4 billion quarter-over-quarter and a decline of TWD 9.9 billion year-over-year. Operating margin was 10.5%, improving 0.8 percentage points sequentially and declining 8.4 percentage points year-over-year.

第三季營業費用為新台幣 98 億，較上季增加 10 億新台幣，較去年同期減少 4 億新台幣。營運費用的環比增長主要是由於薪酬費用增加和研發相關工廠供應增加。年度營運費用下降主要是由於利潤分享和獎金減少，但部分被研發相關成本上升所抵銷。本季我們的營運費用百分比為 11.7%，較上季上升 0.2 個百分點，較去年同期上升 1.4 個百分點。由於研發和薪酬相關成本增加，連續營運費用百分比增加。年度成長是由於負載降低以及營運槓桿降低所致。第三季營業利潤為新台幣88億元，較上季增加14億元，較去年同期減少99億元。營業利益率為 10.5%，季增 0.8 個百分點，較去年同期下降 8.4 個百分點。

For foreign exchange, we estimate that the NT to US dollar exchange rate had a positive 1.4 percentage point impact on our ATM sequential margins and a positive 2.2 percentage point impact on a year-over-year basis. Without the impact of PPA related depreciation and amortization, ATM gross profit margin would be 23.3% and operating profit margin would be 11.9%.

對於外匯，我們估計新台幣兌美元匯率對我們的 ATM 連續利潤率產生了 1.4 個百分點的正影響，與去年同期相比，產生了 2.2 個百分點的正影響。如果不考慮購電協議相關折舊和攤銷的影響，ATM 毛利率將為 23.3%，營業利潤率為 11.9%。

On page 6, you'll find a graphical representation of our ATM P&L, revenues and their corresponding scaled efficiency are still a ways off from previous 2022 peaks.

在第 6 頁上，您會發現我們的 ATM 損益、收入及其相應的按比例計算的效率的圖形表示與之前 2022 年的峰值相比仍有很大差距。

On page 7, is our ATM revenue by market segment. You can see here the seasonal pickup of some communications products during the quarter. We also saw a smaller pickup in our computing segment. Our automotive, consumer and other market segment declined on a relative and absolute basis. We believe this decline to be out of character for the seasonally strong third quarter. However, it is indicative of the current softness in demand.

第 7 頁是我們按細分市場劃分的 ATM 收入。您可以在此處看到本季某些通訊產品的季節性成長。我們的計算領域也出現了較小的回升。我們的汽車、消費品和其他細分市場的相對和絕對水平均有所下降。我們認為，這種下降與季節性強勁的第三季不符。然而，這表明當前需求疲軟。

On page 8, you will find our ATM revenue by service type. You can see here that we are experiencing a stronger pickup in our advanced packaging services, which includes bumping and flip chip. Our wire bonding and test business saw their relative shares decline during the quarter. It is worth noting that on an absolute dollar basis, both wire bond and test service types increased revenues.

在第 8 頁，您可以按服務類型查看我們的 ATM 收入。您可以在這裡看到，我們的先進封裝服務（包括凸塊和倒裝晶片）正在經歷強勁的成長。我們的引線鍵合和測試業務的相對份額在本季度有所下降。值得注意的是，以絕對美元計算，引線鍵合和測試服務類型的收入均增加。

On page 9, you can see the third quarter results of our EMS business and a graphical representation of its market segment allocation. During the quarter, EMS revenues were TWD 71 billion, improving TWD 10.6 billion or 18% sequentially and declining TWD 19.7 billion or 22% year-over-year. Sequential revenue increase is primarily attributable to the seasonal nature of our EMS business, while the year-over-year revenue decline is primarily due to the broad-based, soft electronics demand environment. Sequentially, our EMS businesses gross margin declined 0.2 percentage points to 9.1%, while our operating margin improved 0.4 percentage points to 3.9%. The operating margin improvements were driven primarily by loading and favorable foreign exchange impacts to raw materials. Our EMS third quarter operating profit was TWD 2.8 billion, up TWD 0.7 billion sequentially and down TWD 2.3 billion annually. For our EMS market segment, our consumer segment picked up seasonally as industrial and automotive segments declined on a relative basis. And while the automotive segment lost relative share, it grew during the quarter by 7% on an absolute dollar basis. From a full year perspective, we continue to expect our automotive market segment to outperform other segments.

在第 9 頁，您可以看到我們的 EMS 業務第三季業績及其細分市場分配的圖形表示。本季度，EMS 營收為新台幣 710 億，季增 106 億新台幣，年增 18%，年減 197 億新台幣，即 22%。營收連續成長主要歸因於我們的 EMS 業務的季節性，而營收年減主要歸因於廣泛的軟電子需求環境。隨後，我們的 EMS 業務毛利率下降了 0.2 個百分點至 9.1%，而我們的營業利潤率則提高了 0.4 個百分點至 3.9%。營業利潤率的提高主要是由於原材料的裝載和有利的外匯影響。 EMS第三季營業利潤為新台幣28億，季增7億新台幣，較去年同期減少23億新台幣。對於我們的 EMS 細分市場，我們的消費細分市場季節性回升，而工業和汽車細分市場相對下降。儘管汽車領域的相對份額有所下降，但以絕對美元計算，本季成長了 7%。從全年的角度來看，我們繼續預計我們的汽車細分市場將優於其他細分市場。

On page 10, you will find key line items from our balance sheet. At the end of the third quarter, we had cash and cash equivalents and current financial assets of TWD 71.9 billion. Our total interest bearing debt was down TWD 32.1 billion to TWD 219.2 billion. Total unused credit lines amounted to TWD 347 billion. Our EBITDA for the quarter was TWD 27.8 billion. As mentioned in our previous quarter, our net debt to equity this quarter was up as a result of cash usage for annual dividend payment.

在第 10 頁，您將找到我們資產負債表中的關鍵行項目。截至第三季末，我們的現金及現金等價物以及流動金融資產為新台幣719億。我們的有息債務總額減少了 321 億新台幣，至 2,192 億新台幣。未使用的信貸額度總額達 3,470 億新台幣。本季的 EBITDA 為 278 億新台幣。正如我們在上一季提到的，由於使用現金支付年度股息，本季我們的淨債務與股本比率有所上升。

On page 11, you will find our equipment capital expenditures. Machinery, and equipment capital expenditures for the third quarter in US dollars totaled $239 million, of which $121 million were used in packaging operations, $89 million in test operations, $28 million in EMS operations and $1 million in interconnect material operations and others. Current quarter EBITDA of $0.9 billion continues significantly to outpace our equipment capital expenditures of $0.2 billion. It is worth noting that with more excitement surrounding AI, our leading-edge advanced packages in our vertically integrated or VIPack offerings are getting a lot more attention from our shareholders as well as our customers. At this point, we are expecting incremental customer adoptions of our fan-out and interposer-based solutions along with increasing collaboration with Upstream Foundry Partners on Leading Edge Advanced Packaging. As a result, we will be making incremental investments to support these businesses subject to financially justifiable returns. And while revenues related to these products are relatively small, representing a low single-digit percentage of ATM revenues, we believe we see significant growth opportunities in the coming year.

在第 11 頁，您將找到我們的設備資本支出。第三季機械和設備資本支出（以美元計）總計2.39億美元，其中1.21億美元用於封裝業務，8,900萬美元用於測試業務，2,800萬美元用於EMS業務，100萬美元用於互連材料業務及其他業務。本季 EBITDA 為 9 億美元，持續大幅超過我們 2 億美元的設備資本支出。值得注意的是，隨著人工智慧越來越令人興奮，我們垂直整合或 VIPack 產品中的領先先進軟體包正受到股東和客戶的更多關注。目前，我們預計客戶將越來越多地採用我們的扇出和中介層解決方案，並與上游代工合作夥伴在前沿先進封裝方面加強合作。因此，我們將進行增量投資來支持這些企業，並獲得合理的財務回報。雖然與這些產品相關的收入相對較小，佔 ATM 收入的比例較低，但我們相信來年會看到巨大的成長機會。

We are in October now, and the year is almost done. Much of the original wafer banks for our ATM business still remain to be addressed. As with many situations during the downturn, our wafer bank situation has become a bit complicated. During the third quarter, while some wafer banks were gradually being looked down, the composition of some of those wafer banks appeared to be replenishing instead of just declining. In effect, we saw newer wafers started to come in and replace older ones. Devices on these older wafers may continue to be sold, perhaps by being re-skewed or by being marked down. And if that is the case, we will provide packaging and testing services for those products. But for us, the focus going forward should be placed on the newer generation of products. And while we are not in position to predict how long those new products will stay in the channel before they sell through in the end markets, we do believe that the overall environment heading into 2024 appears to be improving. Our customers have been more cautious in their approach towards restocking. Overall demand looks marginally better as consumers finish their post-COVID catchup spending. Businesses are looking to implement AI to optimize their business operations. Consumers are discovering how new AI technology may help improve their lives. It is an opportunity to target a new generation of products at a new generation of consumer demand.

現在已經是十月了，這一年也快結束了。我們 ATM 業務的許多原始晶圓庫仍有待解決。就像經濟低迷時期的許多情況一樣，我們的晶圓庫情況變得有點複雜。第三季度，雖然一些晶圓庫逐漸被低估，但其中一些晶圓庫的組成似乎正在補充，而不是只是下降。實際上，我們看到更新的晶圓開始出現並取代舊的晶圓。這些舊晶圓上的裝置可能會繼續銷售，可能是透過重新傾斜或降價來銷售。如果是這種情況，我們將為這些產品提供封裝和測試服務。但對我們來說，未來的重點應該放在新一代產品上。雖然我們無法預測這些新產品在終端市場銷售之前將在通路中停留多久，但我們確實相信進入 2024 年的整體環境似乎正在改善。我們的客戶在補貨方面更加謹慎。隨著消費者完成疫情後的追趕支出，整體需求看起來略有改善。企業正在尋求實施人工智慧來優化其業務運營。消費者正在發現新的人工智慧技術如何幫助改善他們的生活。這是針對新一代消費者需求推出新一代產品的機會。

Looking out into the fourth quarter, we see many products continuing their seasonal builds. And while we did see a welcomed mild seasonal ramp, we have not necessarily seen a rapid recovery for the industry. As an extension to this concept, we believe the seasonal forces of product cycles are still stronger than the recovery we are encountering. As such, we see our fourth quarter revenues to be more indicative of waning seasonal builds, than the rising momentum of a full recovery. For our EMS business, the third quarter is shallower than normal product reps turn into a longer building season with a peak in the fourth quarter. Product mix and the cessation of foreign exchange benefits will result in a lower quarterly operating margin similar with year-to-date levels.

展望第四季度，我們看到許多產品仍在繼續其季節性建設。雖然我們確實看到了令人歡迎的溫和季節性增長，但我們不一定看到該行業的快速復甦。作為這個概念的延伸，我們相信產品週期的季節性力量仍然比我們正在經歷的復甦更強。因此，我們認為第四季的營收更能顯示季節性成長的減弱，而不是全面復甦的上升勢頭。對於我們的 EMS 業務，第三季度比正常的產品代表要淺，轉而進入一個較長的建設季節，並在第四季度達到高峰。產品組合和外匯優惠的終止將導致季度營業利潤率下降，與年初至今的水平相似。

We would like to summarize our outlook for the fourth quarter as follows. For our ATM business, in NT dollar terms, our ATM fourth quarter 2023 revenues should decline low to mid single digits quarter-over-quarter. Our ATM fourth quarter 2023 gross margin should be flattish as compared to third quarter 2023. For our EMS business, in NT dollar terms, our EMS fourth quarter 2023 revenues should increase percentage wise in the low teens quarter-over-quarter. Our EMS fourth quarter 2023 operating margin should be similar or slightly higher than our EMS year-to-date 2023 operating margin of 3.3%.

我們對第四季的展望總結如下。對於我們的 ATM 業務，以新台幣計算，我們 2023 年第四季的 ATM 收入應較上季下降低至中個位數。與2023 年第三季相比，我們的ATM 2023 年第四季毛利率應持平。對於我們的EMS 業務，以新台幣計算，我們2023 年第四季的EMS 營收應按季度環比增長百分之十以下的百分比。我們的 EMS 2023 年第四季營業利潤率應與 EMS 2023 年迄今 3.3% 的營業利潤率相似或略高。

That is the conclusion of our prepared remarks. I would like to open the floor to questions.

這是我們準備好的發言的結論。我想請大家提問。

Now we would like to open the floor for questions. (Operator Instructions) We have a question from Mr. Gokul Hariharan of JP Morgan.

現在我們想請大家提問。 （操作員指令） 我們有來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan 先生的問題。

So my first question is on the wafer bank comment, quite interesting. Could you talk a little bit more, Ken and Joseph on the composition of that wafer bank. Are you seeing new wafers coming in for one kind of application while the older wafers that are not yet getting fully depleted is for some other kind of application? Is there any difference by application that you are seeing in terms of the wafer bank inventory buildup and reduction? And to the extent that you have visibility for, could you talk a little bit about how quickly this wafer bank could potentially get depleted over the next maybe a couple of quarters or so? That's my first question.

所以我的第一個問題是關於晶圓銀行的評論，非常有趣。肯和約瑟夫，您能多談談晶圓庫的組成嗎？您是否看到新晶圓用於一種應用，而尚未完全耗盡的舊晶圓則用於其他某種應用？您所看到的晶圓庫庫存增加和減少方面是否存在因應用而異的情況？在您了解的範圍內，您能否談談這個晶圓庫在接下來的幾個季度左右可能會以多快的速度耗盡？這是我的第一個問題。

Well, I don't think we can predict how fast or how, what kind of a pace that the original wafer bank will be worked out. We are seeing these original wafer banks being progressively working down to a certain level. But at the same time the overall wafer bank is still at a relatively high level because of some of the wafer banks are being replaced by the new wafers that are coming in. And I think at this point it's really the new products that we launched, which is mostly in communication, consumer as well as in computing area. It's quite widespread in terms of new wafers coming in and I think the overall inventory digestion is still going on. It should continue for some time. I think the bright side of it is we are seeing that being worked out and we're seeing signs of this inventory being consumed and the digestion -- we should be at the tail end of the industry digestion now.

好吧，我認為我們無法預測原始晶圓庫將以多快、如何、什麼樣的速度製定出來。我們看到這些原始晶圓庫正在逐步降低到一定水平。但同時，整體晶圓庫仍然處於相對較高的水平，因為一些晶圓庫正在被即將到來的新晶圓所取代。我認為目前這確實是我們推出的新產品，主要是在通訊、消費以及計算領域。就新晶圓進入而言，這是相當普遍的，我認為整體庫存消化仍在繼續。它應該會持續一段時間。我認為好的一面是我們正在看到這個問題正在解決，我們看到庫存被消耗和消化的跡象——我們現在應該處於行業消化的尾聲。

So if you look at the Q4 guidance down low to mid single digit, you saw a pretty good improvement in communication by both auto and industrial kind of tailed-off in Q3. Is that the same trend going into Q4 that communication and consumer is relatively strong while you see the drop off continuing in auto and industrial?

因此，如果您將第四季度的指引下調至低至中個位數，您會發現汽車和工業的溝通在第三季有所減弱。進入第四季度，通訊和消費領域相對強勁，而汽車和工業領域持續下滑，這是否也是同樣的趨勢？

And lastly, I think on the auto industrial side, any thoughts on how this is likely to play out given it's been a sector, which has been relatively strong until very recently, seems like seeming to go into inventory correction now. Based on prior history and your judgment, do you think this is going to be still a drag for most of next year, like first half of next year at least?

最後，我認為在汽車工業方面，鑑於該行業直到最近相對強勁，任何關於這可能如何發展的想法現在似乎都進入了庫存調整階段。根據先前的歷史和您的判斷，您認為這在明年的大部分時間（至少是明年上半年）仍然會是一個拖累嗎？

I think overall situations are stabilizing now. And auto remains to be one of the brighter spots and we are making quite a bit of progress in moving up the auto part of the business. I think last year we have overall about 7% of our revenue coming from automotive and that ratio has been up to around 10% for this year. And we believe it will continue to grow, although we are seeing some level of the growth, momentum seems to be slowing down a little bit because in certain area there will be some inventory that needs to be digested. But overall I think the overall trend is still going fairly healthy. For quarter four, I think it's across the board. I think a lot of the new products are being introduced and we are seeing the seasonal uptick from these new products that are being launched.

我認為現在整體局勢正在穩定。汽車仍然是亮點之一，我們在提升汽車業務方面取得了相當大的進展。我認為去年我們大約有 7% 的收入來自汽車，今年這一比例已上升至 10% 左右。我們相信它將繼續增長，儘管我們看到了一定程度的增長，但勢頭似乎有所放緩，因為在某些領域會有一些庫存需要消化。但總的來說，我認為整體趨勢仍然相當健康。對於第四季度，我認為這是全面的。我認為許多新產品正在推出，我們看到這些正在推出的新產品的季節性上升。

Our next question is from Ms. Laura Chen of Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題是來自花旗集團的Laura Chen女士。

My first question is about the COAS or substrate advanced packaging expansion. Can you provide us more detail about how big of the capacity you are preparing and also in terms of the growth outlook, even though so far is at very low single digit of the IC ATM business. But just wondering your view on the capacity expansion plan and also the growth outlook? That's my first question.

我的第一個問題是關於 COAS 或基板先進封裝擴充。您能否向我們提供更多有關您正在準備的容量以及增長前景的詳細信息，儘管到目前為止 IC ATM 業務的個位數非常低。但只是想知道您對產能擴張計劃和成長前景的看法？這是我的第一個問題。

Well, instead of giving out the numbers for capacity, I think what we can say is we have the sufficient installed capacity that are generating the revenue that we're generating now. And we do see pretty good potential going forward and we'll be making the necessary investment, provided those are financially justifiable. And most of the CapEx that we are going to put in or the investment we're going to put in are for de-bottling the capacity. And at this point we are confident that we should easily double that part of the revenue next year.

好吧，我認為我們可以說的是，我們擁有足夠的裝置容量，可以產生我們現在正在產生的收入，而不是給出容量數字。我們確實看到了未來相當好的潛力，如果這些投資在財務上是合理的，我們將進行必要的投資。我們將投入的大部分資本支出或投資都是為了減少產能。在這一點上，我們有信心明年我們應該輕鬆地將這部分收入翻倍。

And also my second question is also just wondering that you see the ATM business will see slightly down but at the same time the gross margin seems to be resilient at the current level. So just wondering like in terms of the technology mix or applications, what have you held relatively well for the profitability into Q4, even though we see still some softness?

我的第二個問題也只是想知道，您是否認為 ATM 業務會略有下降，但同時毛利率在當前水平上似乎具有彈性。因此，我想知道在技術組合或應用方面，儘管我們仍然看到一些疲軟，但第四季度的盈利能力相對較好的是什麼？

Well, a lot of it comes with the product mix that we're building. In quarter three and also in quarter four we are seeing that the higher margin products being representing a higher percentage of our overall revenue and also, I think the pricing continued to be resilient and given our scale and our technology offering and the efficiency or the level of automation that we have, we have continued to being able to maintain a reasonable price level and also to have pretty good control over our cost making the margin at, you know, we are not totally happy, but quite satisfactory level at this point. Even when we are anticipating a mild decline in revenue going into quarter 4, given the efforts that we put in we believe that we can maintain whatever margin we achieved in quarter 3, if not higher, a little bit higher.

嗯，其中很多都伴隨著我們正在建立的產品組合。在第三季度和第四季度，我們看到利潤率較高的產品占我們總收入的比例較高，而且，考慮到我們的規模、技術產品以及效率或水平，我認為定價仍然具有彈性憑藉我們擁有的自動化能力，我們繼續能夠保持合理的價格水平，並且能夠很好地控制我們的成本，從而使利潤達到，你知道，我們目前並不完全滿意，但相當令人滿意的水平。即使我們預計第四季度收入將略有下降，但考慮到我們付出的努力，我們相信我們可以保持第三季實現的利潤率，即使不是更高，也可以更高一點。

Next question is from Mr. Bruce Lu of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題是來自高盛的Bruce Lu先生。

The management sounds a lot more bullish or positive in terms of AI revenue potentials. Given that the technology for AI in terms of packaging is so complicated for me, can you tell us what is the service you provided for AI. It's more linked to fan-out or on sub-tray or anything? What kind of profitability, what kind of return on equity, what kind of capital intensity for this business?

就人工智慧收入潛力而言，管理層聽起來更加樂觀或積極。鑑於AI在封裝方面的技術對我來說太複雜了，您能告訴我們您為AI提供的服務是什麼嗎？它更多地與扇出或子托盤或其他東西相關？該業務的獲利能力、股本報酬率、資本強度如何？

Well, we are getting pretty good traction with our customers in terms of both our (inaudible) as well as interposer-based kind of packaging products. And we will be aggressively engaging these customers and try to feed their needs. But at the same time, we are also increasing our collaboration with the upstream foundries in providing the sufficient capacity into this area. So we are optimistic about the revenue from these different package type products coming from both directions. One is our own solutions, and the other is really the collaboration with foundries.

嗯，就我們的（聽不清楚）以及基於中介層的封裝產品而言，我們在客戶中獲得了相當大的吸引力。我們將積極吸引這些客戶並盡力滿足他們的需求。但同時，我們也加強與上游代工廠的合作，為此領域提供足夠的產能。因此，我們對這些不同封裝類型產品來自兩個方向的收入持樂觀態度。一是我們自己的解決方案，二是與代工廠的合作。

But which one is stronger for the past 3 months which one turns out to be more positive to give the management like stronger confidence? Collaboration with foundries or yourself?

但在過去的三個月裡，哪一個比較強大，哪一個比較積極，可以帶給管理階層更強的信心呢？與鑄造廠合作還是您自己？

The collaboration is more stable there and it's more obvious. In terms of our own solution, I think the design or the process of this is still subject to a lot of the customer discussions and also co-working with our customers. But we are making a lot of progress on that. And we're actually in mass production, but in terms of real volume, I think we should be seeing that coming from next year.

那裡的合作更加穩定，也更加明顯。就我們自己的解決方案而言，我認為其設計或流程仍然需要大量客戶討論以及與客戶的合作。但我們正在這方面取得很大進展。我們實際上正在進行大規模生產，但就實際數量而言，我認為我們應該從明年就看到這一點。

Okay. Sorry. So what was the profitability for that? Capital intensity -- the profitability for the AI-related business and capital intensity for that?

好的。對不起。那麼它的獲利能力是多少呢？資本密集度－AI相關業務的獲利能力和資本密集度是什麼？

Well, you're seeing our margin being gradually improving. So at least the margin should be accretive.

嗯，你會看到我們的利潤率逐漸提高。因此，至少利潤應該是增值的。

Our next question is from Mr. Charlie Chan of Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題是來自摩根士丹利的陳查理先生。

So first of all, congrats for the great execution, especially for first quarter gross margin improvement. And so first question -- yes, sure. So first question is about your view about the cycle. I know right now, customers placing rush orders, the wafer bank get depleted, but do you think that right now is the hard bottoming cycle, meaning for the first quarter, you wouldn't expect a further decline of the fab utilization? Can you just give us some color about the cycle recovery?

首先，恭喜您的出色執行力，特別是第一季毛利率的改善。所以第一個問題——是的，當然。所以第一個問題是關於你對週期的看法。我知道現在，客戶下緊急訂單，晶圓庫會耗盡，但您是否認為現在是硬性觸底週期，這意味著第一季度，您不會預期晶圓廠利用率會進一步下降？您能給我們一些關於週期恢復的資訊嗎？

Well, I certainly don't have the crystal ball for us. I think the market is still very volatile. I think one good sign of it is we, same as everybody else, we believe that we are at least at the -- maybe at nearing the end of the inventory digestion. But still, I think that's -- we did not -- at this point, I don't -- I personally don't believe that this is really the real issue here. I think the real issue is still whether the overall consumption will recover more -- in a stronger case than what we're witnessing now. That really involves a lot of different various exogenous factors.

好吧，我當然沒有我們的水晶球。我認為市場仍然非常不穩定。我認為一個好的跡像是，我們和其他人一樣，相信我們至少處於——也許接近庫存消化的尾聲。但我仍然認為——我們沒有——在這一點上，我不——我個人不認為這真的是真正的問題。我認為真正的問題仍然是整體消費是否會恢復得更多——在比我們現在看到的情況更強勁的情況下。這確實涉及很多不同的外生因素。

The recent war that's going on in the Middle East, certainly, it doesn't help the situation. And we thought that the inflation is in check now. But with the war going on, that may have another -- put in another variable into it. So it's very hard to predict how soon or how fast the industry will recover. We're just going to play by ears. I think there are good signs, there are bad signs, but overall I think we were just focusing on what we do best and serve our customers.

當然，最近中東發生的戰爭對局勢也無濟於事。我們認為通貨膨脹現在已經得到控制。但隨著戰爭的持續，這可能會有另一個變數——放入另一個變數。因此，很難預測該行業將多快或多快復甦。我們只是憑耳朵行事。我認為有好的跡象，也有壞的跡象，但總的來說，我認為我們只是專注於我們最擅長的事情並為客戶服務。

And we are cautiously about next year -- cautiously optimistic about next year. We believe that going into Q1, all over -- throughout the whole year of next year, we will continue to see year-over-year growth.

我們對明年持謹慎態度——對明年持謹慎樂觀態度。我們相信，進入第一季度，整個明年全年，我們將繼續看到同比增長。

Okay. Thanks, Joseph. So, just to look back. When did you start to see or feel the so-called the rush orders? Can you give us kind of a timing, when did you start to see that?

好的。謝謝，約瑟夫。所以，只是回顧一下。您什麼時候開始看到或感受到所謂的「緊急訂單」？您能給我們一個時間安排嗎？您是什麼時候開始看到這一點的？

We have been seeing rush orders throughout the years, particularly at the -- last month of any particular quarter, we will -- we see some rush orders coming in across the board. I think that's the reason -- the reason for that is customers are, like Ken mentioned, is at this point more cautious about restocking. And since there are ample capacity as well as wafers and also materials, I think the customers will tend to wait till the last minute until they see -- they have a clearer view of their upcoming demand that will put -- they will put the orders in. So that's what we have been seeing for the past few quarters and we are seeing that still going on at this point.

多年來，我們一直看到緊急訂單，特別是在任何特定季度的最後一個月，我們都會看到一些緊急訂單全面湧入。我認為這就是原因 - 正如肯提到的那樣，客戶目前對補貨更加謹慎。由於有充足的產能以及晶圓和材料，我認為客戶往往會等到最後一刻，直到他們看到——他們對即將到來的需求有更清晰的了解——他們會下訂單這就是我們在過去幾個季度所看到的情況，我們看到這種情況目前仍在繼續。

Next question is from Mr. Rick Hsu of Daiwa Securities.

下一個問題是大和證券的Rick Hsu先生提出的。

Can you guys hear me?

你們聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Okay. Great. First question is regarding your capacity utilization across the board, ATM. I think if I don't remember wrong, Ken said something about mid-60s for Q3, right? So I assume, given your expected decline in Q4 ATM revenue, so your loading should be below mid-60s in Q4, is that right?

好的。偉大的。第一個問題是關於 ATM 的整體容量利用率。我想如果我沒記錯的話，Ken 說了一些關於 Q3 的 60 年代中期的事情，對吧？所以我認為，考慮到您預計第四季度 ATM 收入會下降，因此第四季度您的負載應該低於 60 左右，對嗎？

It will be slightly lower than 65%, yes.

是的，會略低於 65%。

Okay. Great. Second question. Your foundry partners, like the TSMT and UMC, see some good early signs of demand stability from PC and smartphone consumer electronic products. Do you guys agree? And if so, do you see any counter seasonal possibility for your Q1 loading, assuming there's already some demand recovery from this consumer space?

好的。偉大的。第二個問題。您的代工合作夥伴（例如台積電和聯華電子）看到了 PC 和智慧型手機消費性電子產品需求穩定的一些良好的早期跡象。你們同意嗎？如果是這樣，假設這個消費領域的需求已經復甦，您認為第一季的負荷是否有反季節性的可能性？

Well, there are spotty signs of optimism, but -- and demand remains to be seen. There could be some volatility in 2023. But we believe that things are starting to look up. And that's why we -- like I said earlier, we are cautiously optimistic about next year.

嗯，有一些樂觀的跡象，但是——需求仍有待觀察。 2023 年可能會出現一些波動。但我們相信情況正在開始好轉。這就是為什麼我們——就像我之前所說的那樣，我們對明年持謹慎樂觀的態度。

Next question is from Brad Lin of BofA.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Brad Lin。

I have 2 questions. One on generative AI and second on the silicon photonics. So, basically, firstly, we are encouraged to learn the management's positive comments on the new generation of the consumer demand. I'm quite curious about what kind of the new application should we expect for the consumer market and what are the applications that are inside for the ASE? And also, what time do we expect it to, well, take off?

我有 2 個問題。第一個是生成式人工智慧，第二個是矽光子學。所以，基本上，首先，我們被鼓勵去了解管理階層對新一代消費者需求的正面評價。我很好奇我們應該為消費市場期待什麼樣的新應用程式以及 ASE 內部有哪些應用程式？而且，我們預計它什麼時候會起飛？

Take off in what? In silicon photonics?

乘什麼起飛？在矽光子學領域？

No, no. For the new generation of the consumer demand, which may be brought by the generative AI.

不，不。對於新一代的消費需求，這可能是由生成式AI帶來的。

I think the AI is coming and we're expecting the AI technology to proliferate into so many different kinds of edge devices. And it will be the main thing for the next few years. It will be a mega driving force for the industry to grow, and we're certainly going to be well-prepared for it. I think the real cream for us is not just the AI chip itself, but the proliferating applications into all different kinds of devices that will create tremendous peripheral chips demand for us to satisfy.

我認為人工智慧即將到來，我們預計人工智慧技術將擴散到許多不同類型的邊緣設備。這將是未來幾年的主要事情。這將成為產業發展的巨大推動力，我們當然會為此做好充分準備。我認為對我們來說真正的精華不僅僅是人工智慧晶片本身，而是在各種不同類型設備中的應用激增，這將為我們創造巨大的外圍晶片需求來滿足。

Got it. So that's a structural trend, and then we should see a lot of the new applications to come in the coming years.

知道了。所以這是一個結構性趨勢，然後我們應該會在未來幾年看到很多新的應用程式。

Yes. Exactly. And I think the momentum will start to -- really start to accelerate going to 2024.

是的。確切地。我認為到 2024 年，這種勢頭將開始真正開始加速。

Got it. Got it. And then my second question is on the CPO. So we have learned that ASE started development of the CPO or silicon photonics for a couple of years during the SEMICON. So may we learn the opportunities and also the implication of the new technology and what are the key barriers or challenges for ASE here in this new technology?

知道了。知道了。我的第二個問題是關於 CPO 的。據我們了解，ASE 在 SEMICON 期間就開始了 CPO 或矽光子學的開發幾年。那麼，我們是否可以了解新技術的機會和意義，以及 ASE 在這項新技術方面的主要障礙或挑戰是什麼？

Well, now, being a technology guy, I think from what I heard, that's still a few years away. Right now, we're still focusing on the silicon photonic chips packaging test. Going forward, I think the technology will just -- will push the development of CPO and we're still at the investing stage. And when the demand really comes, we will be ready for it.

好吧，現在，作為一名技術人員，我認為從我所聽到的情況來看，這還需要幾年的時間。目前，我們仍專注於矽光子晶片的封裝測試。展望未來，我認為這項技術將推動 CPO 的發展，但我們仍處於投資階段。當需求真正到來時，我們將做好準備。

Next question is from Ms. Sunny Lin of UBS.

下一個問題是來自UBS的Sunny Lin女士。

Could you hear me okay?

你聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So my first question is on interposer-based 2.5D package. I think currently the mainstream solution is based on silicon interposer, but there's increasing discussions on the technology move into RDL-based 2.5D package. And so based on your engagement with the key customers, when do you think that shift will start to happen? And for ASE, I assume that you should be getting more opportunities if the industry does start to make that shift?

所以我的第一個問題是關於基於中介層的 2.5D 封裝。我認為目前主流解決方案是基於矽中介層，但關於技術轉向基於 RDL 的 2.5D 封裝的討論越來越多。因此，根據您與主要客戶的互動，您認為這種轉變何時會開始發生？對於 ASE 來說，我認為如果產業確實開始做出這種轉變，您應該會獲得更多機會？

Yes. We're seeing that happening now, and we are aggressively engaging our customers who are looking for more cost-effective kind of solution. At this point, I think if you call silicon-based -- silicon interposer-based, it's still a bit more matured kind of technology and I think the RDL-based, there will still be some discussions in terms of the design or the process of it that needs to be worked on individually with the customers that we are engaging now.

是的。我們現在看到這種情況正在發生，我們正在積極與正在尋找更具成本效益的解決方案的客戶合作。在這一點上，我認為如果你稱之為基於矽的——基於矽中介層的，它仍然是一種更成熟的技術，我認為基於RDL，在設計或工藝方面仍然會有一些討論其中需要與我們現在正在接觸的客戶單獨合作。

We are in mass production at this point, but with limited amount. But we see this has a pretty good potential, and we will continue to make investment into it and continue to work very closely with our customers to start expanding that part of the business for us.

目前我們正在批量生產，但數量有限。但我們認為這具有相當好的潛力，我們將繼續對其進行投資，並繼續與我們的客戶密切合作，開始為我們擴展這部分業務。

Got it. So a quick follow-up on this part of the business. And so in terms of the competition, obviously, the leading foundry is also aggressive on the overall technology road map. Some of your competitors are also focusing on exploring the opportunities. And so for ASE, what are some of the competitive advantage that you think you have when competing with the key projects?

知道了。所以快速跟進這部分業務。因此，就競爭而言，顯然領先的代工廠在整體技術路線圖上也很激進。您的一些競爭對手也正在專注於探索機會。那麼對於ASE來說，您認為自己在與重點項目競爭時有哪些競爭優勢？

Well, our long partnering relationship with the foundry or the foundry certainly gives us an edge. And given our scale and the technology that we have been brewing over the years, I think we are certainly ahead of our competitors in whatever products that we are building today or whatever technology that we're developing. So we -- competition is given. There's always going to be competition. The key here is really to stay focused and continue to bring out the satisfactory offering to our customers as well as our upstream foundry partners.

嗯，我們與鑄造廠或鑄造廠的長期合作關係無疑地為我們帶來了優勢。考慮到我們多年來一直在醞釀的規模和技術，我認為無論我們今天正在製造的任何產品或我們正在開發的任何技術，我們肯定都領先於我們的競爭對手。所以我們——競爭是存在的。競爭總是存在的。這裡的關鍵是保持專注並繼續為我們的客戶以及我們的上游代工合作夥伴提供滿意的產品。

Next question is from Mr. Szeho Ng of China Renaissance.

接下來的問題是來自華興資本的吳思豪先生。

My first question is regarding the pricing environment. So far, it seems to be quite stable. But would there be a risk that the pricing environment would be more aggressive when the inflation point really kicks in, when the market rate bottoms?

我的第一個問題是關於定價環境。到目前為止，似乎相當穩定。但當通膨點真正出現、市場利率觸底時，是否有定價環境變得更積極的風險？

Well, pricing is -- pricing pressure is always there and -- but given our scale and our leading position, I think our pricing is more resilient than our competitors. And we'll continue to find the most suitable pricing strategy for -- to satisfy ourselves as well as our customers.

嗯，定價——定價壓力始終存在——但考慮到我們的規模和領先地位，我認為我們的定價比競爭對手更具彈性。我們將繼續尋找最合適的定價策略，以滿足我們自己和客戶的需求。

I see. All right. And second question regarding the CapEx this year and also any initial outlook for next year's CapEx?

我懂了。好的。關於今年資本支出的第二個問題以及明年資本支出的初步展望？

Nothing for next year, but for this year, we are sticking to our original CapEx roughly for equipment about TWD 1 billion. And the split of it will be around 50% in assembly, 30% in test, 17% in EMS, and 3% for material.

明年沒有什麼，但今年，我們將大致堅持原始資本支出約 10 億新台幣的設備。其中約50%用於組裝，30%用於測試，17%用於EMS，3%用於材料。

Next question is from Mr. Gokul Hariharan of J.P. Morgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Gokul Hariharan 先生。

So for some of these 2.5D packaging and advanced generative AI-related products, could you talk a little bit about how much more capital intensive these investments are? I think long time back we used to talk about [TWD 1.1] revenue for TWD 1 of CapEx for flip chip and much lower for wirebond. Could we talk a little bit about how we are seeing this capital entity going up for some of these investments?

那麼，對於其中一些 2.5D 封裝和先進的生成式 AI 相關產品，您能否談談這些投資的資本密集程度如何？我想很久以前我們曾經討論過倒裝晶片的資本支出 [TWD 1.1] 收入為 TWD 1，而引線鍵合的收入要低得多。我們能否談談我們如何看待這個資本實體在其中一些投資中的發展？

Second, what is ASE's stance on taking some customer-supported capacity buildups? Some of your competitors or some of your peers have kind of done some of the capacity expansion in partnership with some of these AI customers. Any thoughts on how ASE is approaching this kind of capacity build out?

其次，日月光對於採取一些客戶支持的產能建設持什麼立場？你的一些競爭對手或一些同行已經與其中一些人工智慧客戶合作進行了一些產能擴張。對於 ASE 如何實現這種能力建構有何想法？

And lastly, I think we've been seeing CapEx cuts, CapEx declining since 2021. So do we feel like we are reaching an inflection where we start to have to add some capacity, increase CapEx in next year? Or you think given utilization is still mid-60s, next year outlook is still not that clear to guide for any meaningful CapEx increase?

最後，我認為我們一直在看到資本支出削減，自 2021 年以來資本支出一直在下降。那麼我們是否覺得我們正在達到一個轉折點，我們開始必須在明年增加一些產能、增加資本支出？或者您認為鑑於利用率仍處於 60 年代中期，明年的前景仍然不明確，無法指導任何有意義的資本支出增加？

Well, like I said, we are seeing a better overall market environment for next year. I wouldn't be surprised that we -- next year's CapEx, although I don't have the number here, but I do believe that the CapEx that we need to put in for next year will be higher than this year.

嗯，就像我說的，我們看到明年整體市場環境會更好。我不會對明年的資本支出感到驚訝，雖然我這裡沒有數字，但我確實相信我們明年需要投入的資本支出將高於今年。

In terms of the advanced packaging, I think, like we said, the -- right now, we're still at the early -- very early stage in developing this part of the business. And so I think we don't have sufficient data points to come on with a real or more precise investment intensity at this point. Plus, like I mentioned earlier on, whatever investment that we are on the table today for this type of products is mostly for debottling the current capacity that we have.

就先進封裝而言，我認為，正如我們所說，目前，我們仍處於開發這部分業務的早期階段。因此，我認為我們目前沒有足夠的數據點來得出真實或更精確的投資強度。另外，正如我之前提到的，我們今天對此類產品的任何投資主要是為了減少我們現有的產能。

So I don't have a real number for -- in terms of capital intensity for this type of product, until we collect more data points and until this part of the business becomes a larger enough pool of business that we can come up with the more meaningful real numbers for it. I think whatever we're going to do is really, we will look at the demand, we will look at the technology that's required or the equipment that's required, and also the business terms that we can get. So when we put the investment in, it will be suitable for the demand and also that can create a justifiable financial return for us.

因此，就此類產品的資本密集度而言，我沒有真實的數字，直到我們收集更多數據點，直到這部分業務成為足夠大的業務池，我們才能得出更有意義的實數。我認為無論我們要做什麼，我們都會考慮需求，我們會考慮所需的技術或設備，以及我們可以獲得的商業條款。所以當我們投入的時候，它會適合需求，也能為我們創造合理的財務回報。

Okay. Got it. My second question is on the adoption of chiplet. We've seen a lot of that happen in the HPC side. Broadly, could you talk a little bit about how the chiplet adoption helps or changes ASE's role, either adds to it or takes away something, but just how you think about it? And more specifically, do you see more chiplet-related packaging potentially getting adopted even in the communication, the mobile smartphone segment which is largely monolithic right now, looking out maybe a couple of years in terms of what you see and have discussions with your key mobile customers?

好的。知道了。我的第二個問題是關於chiplet的採用。我們已經在 HPC 方面看到了很多這樣的情況。概括地說，您能否談談小晶片的採用如何幫助或改變 ASE 的角色，無論是增加還是減少某些東西，但您是如何看待它的？更具體地說，您是否看到更多與小晶片相關的封裝甚至在通訊領域也有可能被採用，行動智慧型手機領域目前基本上是單一的，根據您所看到的內容並與您的關鍵進行討論，可能需要幾年的時間移動客戶？

Well, I guess chiplet is certainly the technology that's required for, especially for advanced nodes and there's physical boundaries that we need to break through the chiplet packaging. So it is a growing trend, and we will -- at this point, we think it's still predominantly in the HPC area or networking. When or how fast it will move into other areas, I think it will take some time for us to have a better grasp of its development.

嗯，我想小晶片肯定是所需要的技術，特別是對於先進節點來說，並且我們需要突破小晶片封裝的物理邊界。所以這是一個不斷增長的趨勢，我們將——在這一點上，我們認為它仍然主要出現在 HPC 領域或網路中。它什麼時候或以多快的速度進入其他領域，我認為我們需要一些時間才能更好地掌握它的發展。

Next question is from Bruce Lu of Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Bruce Lu。

Joseph, I want to ask about the dividend. Given your EBITDA is so much stronger than the CapEx, can we expect a higher dividend payout ratio moving forward or at least for this year? You are paying TWD 8, TWD 7 for the last two years given the weakness of this year, but your cash flow is still very strong. So can we expect a higher payout ratio this year?

約瑟夫，我想問一下股利的事。鑑於您的 EBITDA 遠強於資本支出，我們是否可以預期未來或至少今年會有更高的股息支付率？考慮到今年的疲軟，你過去兩年的工資是新台幣 8、​​新台幣 7，但你的現金流仍然很強勁。那我們可以預期今年的派息率會更高嗎？

I think we have been paying 60% to 65% over the years, and this is not up for me to answer. I think this has to go through the Board. And given the circumstance, I think we will have good discussion on how we address this issue. Sorry...

我想這些年來我們一直在支付 60% 到 65% 的費用，這不由我來回答。我認為這必須經過董事會。鑑於這種情況，我認為我們將就如何解決這個問題進行良好的討論。對不起...

I understand that just like, if you maintain the 60%, 70%, given that the earnings decline more than that, so we don't want to see the dividend per share goes down much. I mean just an investor feedback.

我的理解是，如果你維持60%、70%，考慮到獲利下降幅度更大，所以我們不希望看到每股股息下降太多。我的意思只是投資人的回饋。

Yes, yes, yes. I understand.

對對對。我明白。

Another question for your testing. I mean, I think I do recall in early 2022, management turned more aggressive in testing, which generated pretty stronger growth and earnings. However, if you look at from the second, third quarter, your testing revenue, the growth rate was substantially slower than your packaging business. At the same time, your peers, their testing business has been pretty good with very impressive share price. So what kind of testing strategy can we expect? Do we expect some change for the testing? Do we turn more aggressive into the testing? Do we get involved in the wafer-level testing moving forward? What kind of strategy we're going to -- can we expect?

另一個問題供您測試。我的意思是，我想我確實記得在 2022 年初，管理層在測試方面變得更加積極，這產生了相當強勁的成長和收益。但是，如果從第二、第三季來看，你們的測試收入成長速度明顯慢於你們的包裝業務。同時，你們的同行，他們的測試業務也相當不錯，股價也非常可觀。那我們可以期待什麼樣的測試策略呢？我們預計測試會發生一些變化嗎？我們是否會更積極地進行測試？我們是否會參與未來的晶圓級測試？我們將採取什麼樣的策略──我們可以期待嗎？

Well, we still have the same view on testing that we believe still has -- it does have good potential for us. We want to maintain -- remain aggressive in making tests. This is a larger part of our overall. And we're going to come back and revisit the overall situation and see how we can move further toward our target and to bring this part of the business up. What are the right businesses that we should be pursuing? What kind of new technology that we should be investing in? That's an ongoing process.

嗯，我們對測試的看法仍然是一樣的——它確實對我們有很大的潛力。我們希望在測試中保持積極性。這是我們整體的較大部分。我們會回來重新審視整體情況，看看我們如何進一步實現我們的目標，並把這部分業務提升起來。我們應該從事哪些正確的業務？我們該投資什麼樣的新技術？這是一個持續的過程。

I think the recent kind of a slower growth pace in tests is because of the overall product shifting in this market at this point. So, I think that's one of the main reasons why we're seeing some of the differences in the test business growth pattern between us and our competitor. But we're going to look into this and we're going to put our focus back on test and we'll continue to drive that business.

我認為最近測試成長速度放緩是因為此時該市場的整體產品轉移。因此，我認為這是我們與競爭對手之間的測試業務成長模式存在一些差異的主要原因之一。但我們將對此進行研究，並將重點重新放在測試上，我們將繼續推動該業務。

Next question is from Mr. Szeho Ng of China Renaissance.

接下來的問題是來自華興資本的吳思豪先生。

Yes. Regarding the interposer business, do you have any plan to get into the fabrication part of the business?

是的。關於中介層業務，您有計劃涉足製造部分業務嗎？

I'm sorry, I didn't get your question.

抱歉，我沒聽清楚你的問題。

Do you have any plan to build interposer internally?

你們有內部建構中介層的計畫嗎？

Build interposer internally?

內部建構中介層？

Right.

正確的。

I wish we could, but, no. I don't think we have any plans of doing that.

我希望我們可以，但是，不。我認為我們沒有這樣做的計劃。

I see. Because it doesn't fit our DNA, right, I think for interposer?

我懂了。因為它不符合我們的 DNA，對吧，我認為對於中介層？

Doesn't fit what?

不適合什麼？

It doesn't fit our DNA. I mean the business or the know-how.

它不符合我們的DNA。我指的是業務或專業知識。

I'm not sure this is really what our strength is. And this is a wafer process and we're assembly house. So I don't see the -- a real good fit in it.

我不確定這真的是我們的優勢。這是晶圓工藝，我們是組裝廠。所以我不認為——真正適合它。

Next question is from Mr. Charlie Chan of Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題是摩根士丹利的陳查理先生提出的。

So, I'm not trying to be picky, but I'm very interested about your previous comments. You said that usually in the previous quarters, right, rush order only happen in the quarter end. But now we are at the beginning of the quarter, do you still see rush orders coming? Am I getting anything wrong or is that a sign of kind of demand is actually better than expected? How do we read this?

所以，我並不是想挑剔，但我對你之前的評論非常感興趣。你說通常在前幾季是吧，緊急訂單只發生在季度末。但現在正處於季度初，您是否仍然看到緊急訂單到來？我是否理解錯了什麼，或者某種需求的跡象實際上比預期要好？我們怎麼讀這個？

No, I'm saying the pattern seems to be remaining. That's to say, by end of the quarter, we could see some other rush orders coming in. I'm simply trying to say that the quarter-end rush order seems to be the pattern up until now, yes.

不，我是說這種模式似乎仍然存在。也就是說，到季度末，我們可能會看到其他一些緊急訂單進來。我只是想說，季度末緊急訂單似乎是迄今為止的模式，是的。

Okay. Okay. So another follow-up question or 2, if I may. One is the AI chip testing business, right, [GPU or ASIC]. It seems like your competitor in testing business are gaining a lot of market share. I just wanted to know any fundamental reason behind that?

好的。好的。如果可以的話，還有一個或兩個後續問題。一是AI晶片測試業務，對吧，【GPU或ASIC】。看起來你的測試業務競爭對手正在獲得大量市場份額。我只是想知道背後有什麼根本原因嗎？

And second part of question is more about long term because as you can see that for mature foundry, that's a capacity expansion happening in China. So I'm just wondering if China in the long term will gain market share, whether that means ASE in the back end foundry service will lose market share because you're probably -- I'm not sure, right, but you probably sold your China operation a couple of years ago?

問題的第二部分更多的是關於長期的，因為正如你所看到的，對於成熟的代工廠來說，這是中國發生的產能擴張。所以我只是想知道，從長遠來看，中國是否會獲得市場份額，這是否意味著後端代工服務的日月光會失去市場份額，因為你可能——我不確定，對吧，但你可能會賣掉了幾年前您在中國的業務？

Well, I think the -- our China operation remained in Suzhou, which is under SPIL. It's a bit different from -- it's quite different from the 4 factories that we sold 2 years ago. I think the Suzhou factory today is a more advanced facility than the 4 that we sold. And it does address the growing demand in China, particularly when the -- when things are -- the whole industry is kind of polarizing at this point where China demand remains into China and the outside of China goes to outside.

嗯，我認為──我們的中國業務仍在蘇州，隸屬於 SPIL。這與我們 2 年前出售的 4 家工廠有很大不同。我認為今天的蘇州工廠比我們出售的 4 個工廠更先進。它確實解決了中國不斷增長的需求，特別是當整個行業出現兩極化的時候，中國的需求仍然留在中國，而中國的外部則流向外部。

So I think the Suzhou being a more advanced, more efficient and a more cost-effective kind of facility, I think it does -- it's doing quite well actually in China, particularly in terms of serving the China customer -- Chinese customers with higher-end technology requirement. So we're confident that in China we could be losing some revenue in terms of dollar, but in terms of business, we're actually gaining better quality business in China.

所以我認為蘇州是一個更先進、更有效率、更具成本效益的設施，我認為它確實在中國做得很好，特別是在服務中國客戶方面——中國客戶擁有更高的服務水平。最終技術要求。因此，我們有信心在中國，以美元計算，我們可能會損失一些收入，但就業務而言，我們實際上在中國獲得了更好的品質業務。

Testing, yes, for that GPU and ASIC, yes.

測試，是的，針對 GPU 和 ASIC，是的。

Other than congratulating, our competitors are doing a very good job in securing that type of business. Well, we have some catch-up to do, and we will do so.

除了祝賀之外，我們的競爭對手在確保此類業務方面做得非常好。好吧，我們還有一些工作要做，我們會這樣做的。

(Operator Instructions) There is no more question.

（操作員指示）沒有更多問題了。

Okay. Thank you all for coming. Sorry for my low voice because I caught a cold. But thank you again for joining us and we'll see you next quarter.

好的。謝謝大家的到來。抱歉，我感冒了，聲音很小。但再次感謝您加入我們，我們下季再見。