艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2014 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML third-quarter results conference call on October 15, 2014. Throughout today's introduction, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. After ASML's introduction, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn to conference over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Please go ahead, sir.

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加 2014 年 10 月 15 日 ASML 第三季業績電話會議。在今天的介紹過程中，所有參與者將處於僅收聽模式。 ASML介紹完後，會有提問的機會。 （操作員指示）現在我想將會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Kirsten, and good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining me today from our headquarters in here Veldhoven, The Netherlands, is ASML CEO, Peter Wennink; and our CFO, Wolfgang Nickl.

謝謝你，克爾斯滕。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。今天與我一起從荷蘭費爾德霍芬總部前來的還有 ASML 執行長 Peter Wennink；以及我們的財務長 Wolfgang Nickl。

The subject of today's call is ASML's third-quarter 2014 results. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at asml.com, and a replay of the call will be available on our website for approximately 90 days.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2014 年第三季的業績。此次電話會議也將透過 asml.com 在網路上進行現場直播，並且會議重播將在我們的網站上提供約 90 天。

Now, before we begin, I'd like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meanings of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties.

現在，在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。

For a discussion of these risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website, asml.com, and in ASML's annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

為了討論這些風險因素，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和我們網站 asml.com 上的簡報以及 ASML 提交給美國證券交易委員會的 20-F 表年度報告和其他文件中包含的安全港聲明。

The length of this call will be 60 minutes. And now I would like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

本次通話時間為 60 分鐘。現在我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Craig. Good afternoon, good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for attending our third-quarter 2014 results conference call. Before we begin the Q&A session, Wolfgang and I would like to provide you an overview and some commentary on the third quarter and provide our views on the coming quarters.

謝謝你，克雷格。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安，感謝大家參加我們的 2014 年第三季業績電話會議。在我們開始問答環節之前，沃夫岡和我想向大家概述一下第三季度的情況並發表一些評論，並對未來幾季發表一些看法。

Wolfgang will start with a review of our third-quarter financial performance, and we'll add some comments on our short-term outlook; then I will complete the introduction with some further comments on the current general business environment and on our future business outlook. So Wolfgang, if you will?

沃夫岡將首先回顧我們的第三季財務業績，然後我們將對我們的短期展望發表一些評論；然後，我將對當前的整體商業環境和我們未來的業務前景發表一些進一步的評論，以完成介紹。那麼沃夫岡，你願意嗎？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. Our Q3 revenue was slightly lower than anticipated at EUR1.32 billion due to the shift of a couple of systems into Q4. Q3 sales were largely driven by foundry customers, representing 50% of our system revenues versus the prior quarter, which was driven by system sales to memory customers.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。由於一些系統轉移到第四季度，我們的第三季營收略低於預期，為 13.2 億歐元。第三季的銷售主要由代工客戶推動，占我們系統收入的 50%，而上一季則由面向記憶體客戶的系統銷售推動。

As anticipated, we recognized revenue for two EUV systems during the quarter. Our ASP came in at EUR29.5 million versus EUR40.1 million last quarter, which was driven by high KrF and i-line content in our product mix. Service and field option sales grew again by about 10% over last quarter to EUR438 million, which was driven by a number of high-value system performance enhancing options.

正如預期的那樣，我們在本季度確認了兩套 EUV 系統的收入。我們的平均銷售價格為 2,950 萬歐元，而上一季為 4,010 萬歐元，這得益於我們產品組合中 KrF 和 i-line 含量較高。服務和現場選項銷售額較上一季再次成長約 10%，達到 4.38 億歐元，這得益於一系列高價值的系統效能增強選項。

Gross margin came in solidly at 43.7% compared to our guidance of approximately 42%. Product mix, record options and service sales, as well as cost control enabled this overachievement. R&D expenses were in line with our guidance and SG&A expenses were slightly below our expectations.

毛利率穩定達到 43.7%，而我們的預期約為 42%。產品組合、記錄選項和服務銷售以及成本控制促成了這一超額成就。研發費用符合我們的預期，銷售、一般及行政費用略低於我們的預期。

Turning to the balance sheet, at the end of Q3 we maintained approximately EUR2.7 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. During Q3 we bought back 2.3 million shares for a total of EUR165 million. Since the beginning of our program in 2013, we have now purchased 11.8 million shares through the end of Q3 for a total of EUR776 million, leaving us EUR224 million buyback authority under our current program, ending in December of 2014.

談到資產負債表，第三季末，我們維持了約 27 億歐元的現金、現金等價物和短期投資。第三季度，我們回購了 230 萬股，總計 1.65 億歐元。自 2013 年該計劃開始以來，截至第三季末，我們已購買了 1,180 萬股股票，總額達 7.76 億歐元，根據我們目前的計劃，我們擁有 2.24 億歐元的回購權限，該計劃將於 2014 年 12 月結束。

Regarding the order book, system bookings were strong at EUR1.4 billion. 75% of bookings came from the memory sector, increasing our overall backlog by approximately 40% to EUR2.4 billion, excluding EUV. Our systems backlog is now skewed in favor of the memory sector.

就訂單而言，系統訂單量強勁，達到 14 億歐元。 75% 的訂單來自記憶體領域，不包括 EUV，我們的整體積壓訂單增加了約 40%，達到 24 億歐元。我們的系統積壓現在偏向記憶體部門。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for Q4 and share our initial views on the start of 2015. The strong memory bookings during our last quarter demonstrate a continued strength in this area, with DRAM taking a prominent position, as this sector plans for capacity expansions in 2015 to offset capacity consumed by growing process complexity that comes with node shrinks.

接下來，我想談談我們對第四季的預期，並分享我們對 2015 年伊始的初步看法。上個季度記憶體訂單強勁，表明該領域繼續保持強勁勢頭，其中 DRAM 佔據突出地位，因為該領域計劃在 2015 年擴大產能，以抵消因節點縮小而導致的工藝複雜性增加而消耗的產能。

NAND customers are expected to continue to execute their planar shrink roadmaps and capacity additions to meet expected steady bit growth demand in 2015. There are no clear capacity add plans for 3-D NAND.

NAND 客戶預計將繼續執行其平面微縮路線圖和產能增加，以滿足 2015 年預期的穩定位成長需求。目前還沒有針對 3-D NAND 的明確產能增加計畫。

With Q3 shipment strength, foundry continues the buildup of 20 nanometer, 16 nanometer, and 14 nanometer capacity through the end of this year. The timing and volume of the continued buildup of this node in 2015 appears now to be dependent on key business allocations by our customers' customers.

憑藉第三季的出貨量強勁表現，晶圓代工廠將在今年年底前繼續增加 20 奈米、16 奈米和 14 奈米的產能。 2015 年該節點持續建置的時間和數量現在看來取決於我們客戶的客戶的關鍵業務分配。

Our estimates show that by the end of this calendar year, about 175,000 wafer starts per month of 20 nanometer, 16 nanometer, and 14 nanometer capacity will have cumulatively shipped. Please remember that it takes approximately six months for this capacity to turn into real wafer output.

我們的估計顯示，到今年年底，20 奈米、16 奈米和 14 奈米產能的晶圓每月累積出貨量將達到約 175,000 片。請記住，該產能需要大約六個月的時間才能轉化為真正的晶圓產量。

The final capacity for the 20 nanometer, 16 nanometer, and 14 nanometer node will ultimately depend on end demand and the timing of the introduction of 10 nanometers. In addition to the expansion of 20 nanometer, 16 nanometer, and 14 nanometer capacity in 2015, we expect some additional shipments for the 28 nanometer node, as demand appears to continue to be growing for these processors. We also expect some early pilot system shipments for 10 nanometers in 2015.

20奈米、16奈米和14奈米節點的最終產能將最終取決於最終需求和10奈米的推出時間。除了 2015 年 20 奈米、16 奈米和 14 奈米產能的擴大之外，我們還預計 28 奈米節點的出貨量還會增加，因為這些處理器的需求似乎持續成長。我們也預計 2015 年將有一些 10 奈米早期試驗系統出貨。

For Q4 of this year we expect total revenues of around EUR1.3 billion, which will make our full-year revenue at least EUR5.6 billion. During Q4 we expect revenue recognition for one EUV system.

我們預計今年第四季的總收入約為 13 億歐元，這將使我們的全年收入至少達到 56 億歐元。在第四季度，我們預計一個 EUV 系統將獲得收入確認。

Strength in service and field options revenues will continue, and we expect revenues in the low EUR400 million range for the next few quarters. We expect growth margins for Q4 to be around 43%. This would result in full-year gross margin of around 44%, a significant increase versus the prior year.

服務和現場選項收入的強勁勢頭將持續下去，我們預計未來幾季的營收將在 4 億歐元左右。我們預計第四季的成長幅度約為43%。這將使全年毛利率達到 44% 左右，較上年大幅成長。

R&D expenses for the fourth quarter will again be about EUR260 million, while our target of EUR250 million per quarter in 2015 remains intact. SG&A is expected at about EUR80 million in Q4. We expect other income of approximately EUR20 million, largely consisting of contributions from our Customer Co-Investment Program. With that, I would like to turn to call back over to Peter.

第四季的研發費用將再次達到約 2.6 億歐元，而我們 2015 年每季 2.5 億歐元的目標保持不變。預計第四季銷售、一般及行政費用約 8,000 萬歐元。我們預計其他收入約為 2000 萬歐元，主要來自我們的客戶共同投資計畫的貢獻。說到這裡，我想轉而打電話給彼得。

Thank you, Wolfgang. I would like to take a brief moment to review current sector trends further in relation to what we saw last quarter. Wolfgang has highlighted the current landscape and our near-term view of 2015. In summary, we expect the memory business to do well, especially in the first half of 2015.

謝謝你，沃夫岡。我想花一點時間來結合上個季度的情況進一步回顧一下當前的行業趨勢。沃夫岡強調了當前的情況以及我們對 2015 年的短期展望。總之，我們預期內存業務將會表現良好，尤其是在 2015 年上半年。

With respect to our logic business, we have to deal with a level of unclarity around the geographical spread and the timing of leading-edge capacity additions. In our view this is caused by the current competitive environment in this space and by a more diverse customer base foundry customer base at the advanced nodes, which brings a specific and relatively new dynamic to this industry segment. With significant, large pieces of such leading-edge business apparently yet to be awarded to our customers, these uncertainties should come as no surprise.

就我們的邏輯業務而言，我們必須處理地理分佈和前沿產能增加時間的不明確性。我們認為，這是由該領域當前的競爭環境以及先進節點上更加多樣化的客戶群代工客戶群造成的，這為該行業領域帶來了特定且相對較新的活力。由於大量此類前沿業務顯然尚未授予我們的客戶，因此這些不確定性並不令人意外。

On the other hand, the 28 nanometer node capacity appears to be tighter than expected as demand continues to grow for this node. We still see capacity growing in this area as a broader base of foundry players is making their 28 nanometer process technology available.

另一方面，隨著 28 奈米節點需求的持續增長，28 奈米節點的產能似乎比預期的要緊張。隨著越來越多的晶圓代工廠商推出 28 奈米製程技術，我們仍然看到該領域的產能正在成長。

On top of this trend, the fast pace of development of new processes continues; and at least one customer is accelerating their 10 nanometer process development in an attempt to gain competitive advantage. And this is a positive for ASML as movements to and capacity builds off these advanced nodes are more lithography-intensive.

除了這一趨勢之外，新製程的開發速度仍在持續快速成長；至少有一位客戶正在加速其 10 奈米製程開發，以期獲得競爭優勢。這對 ASML 來說是一個利好，因為這些先進節點的移動和產能建設對光刻技術的要求更高。

As mentioned, the memory sector appears to remain quite healthy, with bit demand trending at around 25% in DRAM and 40% in command NAND into 2015. Technology node transitions continue to address most, if not all, of the bit supply in DRAM.

如上所述，記憶體產業似乎仍保持著相當健康的勢頭，2015 年 DRAM 的位元需求趨勢為 25% 左右，命令 NAND 的位元需求趨勢為 40% 左右。技術節點轉換繼續解決 DRAM 中大部分（如果不是全部）位元供應問題。

However, lack of capacity additions in recent years, in light of more complex processes and larger die, have reduced the installed wafer out capacity below a critical limit. And in that light, it makes sense that some capacity additions are warranted and are expected to happen in 2015, which is evidenced by the announcement of new fabs in the DRAM space -- the first of these fabs taking delivery of new capacity tools in the first half of 2015.

然而，由於製程更加複雜、晶片尺寸更大，近年來產能缺乏增加，導致已安裝的晶圓產能降至臨界值以下。從這個角度來看，增加一些產能是合理的，並且預計將在 2015 年實現，DRAM 領域新晶圓廠的宣布就證明了這一點 —— 這些晶圓廠中的第一家在 2015 年上半年交付了新的產能工具。

We see our NAND customers extending their planar NAND shrink roadmaps in light of apparent challenges in bringing the new 3-D NAND architectures to market in high volume. We therefore do not expect any significant wafer capacity expansions in 3-D NAND. However, we do expect continued planar NAND shrinks for an addition of about 100,000 wafer starts per month to grow bit supply to the expected 40% demand.

我們看到，鑑於將新的 3-D NAND 架構大規模推向市場所面臨的明顯挑戰，我們的 NAND 客戶正在擴展其平面 NAND 縮小路線圖。因此，我們預期 3-D NAND 晶圓產能不會大幅擴張。然而，我們確實預計平面 NAND 將繼續縮小，每月增加約 100,000 個晶圓，以使位供應量達到預期的 40% 需求。

As mentioned last quarter and the quarters before, I want to repeat that we strongly believe that scaling and the related near-term technology challenges (technical difficulty) and memory create an increasing need for EUV in order to continue the cost-effective scaling that has driven this industry for the last 50 years.

正如上個季度和之前幾個季度所提到的，我想重申，我們堅信，規模擴大和相關的近期技術挑戰（技術難度）以及內存對 EUV 的需求不斷增加，以便繼續實現過去 50 年來推動該行業發展的具有成本效益的規模擴大。

Our lithography cost modeling continues to show that EUV can drive down imaging cost of critical layers, and that it will very likely also improve yields as a result of greater process simplicity. Additionally, cost reductions are also driven by reducing the number of other process steps, positively affecting its associated cost for cleanroom space while reducing rework and cycle time.

我們的光刻成本模型繼續表明，EUV 可以降低關鍵層的成像成本，並且由於製程更加簡單，它很可能還會提高產量。此外，減少其他製程步驟的數量也可以降低成本，對無塵室空間的相關成本產生正面影響，同時減少重工和週期時間。

And as to our EUV progress, we reported last quarter that we were able to supply customers with a 200 wafer per day EUV capability. Now, with all systems in the field upgraded to the latest source configuration, we are moving that to 500-plus wafers per day capability, which has been demonstrated at two customer sites. And we are executing on our programs to reproduce this at the additional sites over several day runs to meet our targets by the end of 2014.

至於我們的 EUV 進展，我們上個季度報告稱，我們能夠為客戶提供每天 200 片 EUV 晶圓的生產能力。現在，隨著現場所有系統都升級到最新的來源配置，我們正在將其提升到每天生產 500 多片晶圓的能力，這已在兩個客戶站點得到驗證。我們正在執行計劃，在幾天內在其他站點重複此過程，以便在 2014 年底之前實現我們的目標。

Current demonstrated performance along with significant progress on multiple fronts of our wafer per day program further boost our confidence in meeting our 1,500 wafer per day target for EUV production in 2016. Given this EUV progress, we continue working with one customer towards a mid-node insertion at 10 nanometer logic node in late 2016, which will require shipments of our production's specified in NXE:3350 starting mid-2015.

目前已展示的性能以及我們在每日晶圓產量計劃多個方面取得的重大進展進一步增強了我們的信心，使我們有信心在 2016 年實現 EUV 產量每日 1,500 片晶圓的目標。鑑於這項 EUV 進展，我們將繼續與一位客戶合作，爭取在 2016 年底實現 10 奈米邏輯節點的中間節點插入，這將要求我們從 2015 年中期開始出貨 NXE:3350 規定的產品。

In addition, we are discussing shipment planning of NXE:3350s with other key customers. These will be used for initial learning in a manufacturing environment, which will allow additional time and EUV system availability to support further buildout of the EUV infrastructure, also requiring shipments starting in the second half of 2015.

此外，我們正在與其他主要客戶討論NXE:3350的出貨計畫。這些將用於製造環境中的初步學習，這將提供額外的時間和 EUV 系統可用性，以支援 EUV 基礎設施的進一步建設，同時要求從 2015 年下半年開始發貨。

Given these combined scenarios, we expect to ship around six NXE:3350 systems in 2015 on top of three NXE:3300 systems, which, as we discussed last quarter, will be upgraded to an NXE:3350-like configuration. Timing of revenue recognition of these systems will be determined based upon final terms and conditions of the commercial agreements that we are currently discussing with our customers.

考慮到這些組合情況，我們預計在 2015 年將在三套 NXE:3300 系統的基礎上推出六套 NXE:3350 系統，正如我們上個季度所討論的那樣，這些系統將升級到類似 NXE:3350 的配置。這些系統的收入確認時間將根據我們目前與客戶討論的商業協議的最終條款和條件確定。

On top of our significant focus on EUV, our overall product strategy is matched to the broadest industry needs by delivering the most competitive dry and immersion solutions possible to meet the needs of today's most complex single and multipass patterning. First, we have now shipped 42 of the TWINSCAN NXT:1970, which marks our fastest ramp of any new product ever and indicates a high customer recognition of the value offered by these scanners.

除了高度關注 EUV 之外，我們的整體產品策略還與最廣泛的行業需求相匹配，提供最具競爭力的乾式和浸入式解決方案，以滿足當今最複雜的單次和多次圖案化的需求。首先，我們現在已經出貨了 42 台 TWINSCAN NXT:1970，這標誌著我們有史以來新產品最快的成長速度，顯示客戶高度認可這些掃描器所提供的價值。

Additionally, and in support of our continued focus on bringing even more value to our customers, a TWINSCAN system operating at a memory customer imaged more than 1.5 million wafers in a one-year period, becoming the second system to do so. Secondly, with 11 YieldStar 250D systems shipped in the third quarter, we are now supplying our CD and overlay metrology solutions to all key logic and memory customers. Our innovative metrology solution, which substantially shortens metrology cycle times and enhances manufacturing yields through feedback loops, was released this quarter to high-volume manufacturing at a large foundry.

此外，為了支援我們繼續致力於為客戶帶來更多價值，在一家記憶體客戶處運行的 TWINSCAN 系統在一年內對超過 150 萬個晶圓進行了成像，成為第二個這樣做的系統。其次，隨著第三季 11 台 YieldStar 250D 系統的出貨，我們現在向所有主要邏輯和記憶體客戶提供 CD 和覆蓋計量解決方案。我們的創新計量解決方案已於本季在大型代工廠投入大批量生產，可大幅縮短計量週期時間並透過回饋迴路提高製造產量。

So in summary, memory sector remains healthy, and node shrink and limited capacity additions are planned to grow bit output to the required demand levels in 2015. Logic demand continues to grow at the 28 nanometer node, while increased competition at the 20 nanometer, 16 nanometer, 14 nanometer node is creating some uncertainty about the timing and geographical allocation of the capacity ramp for this node as we enter into 2015.

總而言之，記憶體產業依然健康，計畫透過節點縮小和有限容量增加，將比特輸出量提升到 2015 年所需的需求水準。 28 奈米節點的邏輯需求持續成長，而 20 奈米、16 奈米、14 奈米節點的競爭加劇，使得我們在進入 2015 年時對這些節點容量提升的時間和地理分配產生了一些不確定性。

EUV performance improvements are moving EUV closer to a production insertion, with manufacturing learning being the logical next step for our most advanced customers. And finally, our continued focus on the broad spectrum of lithography solutions required by the industry for both wet and dry solutions is creating ever more value in imaging and process control solutions.

EUV 性能的改進使 EUV 更接近量產，對於我們最先進的客戶來說，製造學習是合乎邏輯的下一步。最後，我們持續關注業界所需的廣泛的乾濕光刻解決方案，為成像和製程控制解決方案創造更多價值。

With that, we would be happy to take your questions.

我們很樂意回答您的問題。

Thanks, Peter. Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session, but beforehand I would like to kindly ask you to limit -- as we always do -- yourself to one question and one short follow-up, if necessary. This will allow us to get as many callers in as possible.

謝謝，彼得。女士們，先生們，接線員將立即向您介紹問答環節的規程，但在此之前，我想請您限制自己只問一個問題，並在必要時進行一次簡短的跟進——就像我們一貫做的那樣。這將使我們能夠接到盡可能多的來電者。

Now, Kirsten, could we have your instructions and then the first question, please?

現在，Kirsten，我們可以聽聽您的指示，然後問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Sandeep Deshpande, JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）Sandeep Deshpande，摩根大通。

My question is on the EUV shipments into 2015. Peter, you have talked about these nine shipments into 2015. Is this including any production orders already? You said that there is one customer which is potentially putting -- you've got some production orders. Or is there any further orders likely in 2015 for EUV production?

我的問題是關於 2015 年 EUV 出貨量。 Peter，您談到了 2015 年的這九批出貨量。這是否已經包括任何生產訂單？您說有一位客戶可能正在下訂單—您有一些生產訂單。或者 2015 年是否有可能進一步訂購 EUV 生產？

And how should we be looking at recognition? Will this recognition occur when the customer starts shipping actual production wafers in 2016? Or you could even have recognition in 2015 itself?

我們該如何看待認可？當客戶在 2016 年開始運送實際生產晶圓時，是否會出現這種認可？或者你甚至可以在 2015 年就獲得認可？

Thank you, Sandeep, for asking two questions. With respect to the shipments in 2015, these are the shipments that we talk about. So you asked a question about the orders for production systems that we could receive in 2015.

謝謝 Sandeep 提出兩個問題。關於2015年的出貨量，這些就是我們談論的出貨量。所以你問了一個關於我們在 2015 年可以收到的生產系統訂單的問題。

I would say, yes, we are planning to receive orders in 2015 for shipment in 2016. So like we said in the introductory statements, with one customer we are planning a mid-node insertion on the 10 nanometer logic node, and that is an insertion late 2016; but the first shipments to support that would, then, start in the second half or, let's say, mid-2015, which will be NXE:3350s. So, yes, we do expect a follow-on in orders from that moment onward.

我想說，是的，我們計劃在 2015 年接收訂單，並於 2016 年發貨。因此，就像我們在介紹性聲明中所說的那樣，我們計劃與一位客戶在 10 奈米邏輯節點上進行中間節點插入，也就是在 2016 年末插入；但支援該功能的首批出貨將在下半年，或者說 2015 年中期開始，即 NXE:3350s。所以，是的，我們確實期待從那一刻起的後續訂單。

On the revenue recognition, while we are discussing the terms and conditions with our customers today, you need to realize one thing -- that we think it's very important that our customers do recognize the value of those machines. And those machines average about EUR90 million, or it is around the EUR90 million mark.

關於收入確認，當我們今天與客戶討論條款和條件時，您需要意識到一件事——我們認為讓客戶認識到這些機器的價值非常重要。這些機器的平均價值約為 9000 萬歐元，或在 9000 萬歐元左右。

It is important that our customers, when we sign the POs, actually have that value in mind. Now, also, clearly, we are discussing with the customers terms and conditions. And some of those conditions have, of course, given the EUV history -- certain performance criteria in there, likely.

重要的是，當我們簽署採購訂單時，我們的客戶實際上要考慮到這一價值。現在，很明顯，我們正在與客戶討論條款和條件。當然，其中一些條件已經考慮到了 EUV 的歷史——其中很可能包含某些性能標準。

Now, depending on the level of those performance criteria, we might recognize revenue later than we ship the machine. That is currently under negotiation. And depending on the final outcome of those terms and conditions and on the performance criteria that will be part of those terms and conditions, we will recognize that revenue, which could be in 2016 and, depending on some of those terms and conditions, could also be 2015.

現在，根據這些性能標準的水平，我們可能會在發貨機器之後才確認收入。目前正在談判中。根據這些條款和條件的最終結果以及作為這些條款和條件一部分的績效標準，我們將確認收入，可能是在 2016 年，也可能是在 2015 年，具體取決於其中一些條款和條件。

But it's a bit speculative, as we have not yet finalized those commercial negotiations. That will, I believe, happen for the first customers soon. And soon -- I would say over the next couple of months. So I will have to keep you a bit in the dark on a deal-specific answer on this, as we have not finalized the discussions yet.

但這有點推測，因為我們還沒有完成這些商業談判。我相信，對於第一批顧客來說，這很快就會實現。很快——我想說就在接下來的幾個月裡。因此，由於我們尚未完成討論，因此對於這筆交易的具體答案，我將不得不向您保密。

Okay. Thank you for the response.

好的。謝謝您的回覆。

John Pitzer, Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Yes, Peter, good morning. Thanks for letting me ask the question. I guess my first question, Peter, is around the 14 nanometer/16 nanometer uncertainty that you see -- seeing right now. It seems very different than the clarity you and the industry had a year ago as your customers were moving from 28 nanometers to 20 nanometers.

是的，彼得，早安。感謝您讓我提出這個問題。彼得，我想我的第一個問題是關於您現在看到的 14 奈米/16 奈米的不確定性。這似乎與您和整個行業一年前所了解的清晰度有很大不同，當時您的客戶正從 28 奈米轉向 20 奈米。

And I guess my question is: at what point, if there isn't some clarity, does it become, I guess, more clear that the 14 nanometer/16 nanometer volume production is more a 2016 event than a 2015 event? And is there a risk that reuse from 20 nanometers down to FinFET is contributing to some of the uncertainty that you are seeing right now?

我的問題是：如果目前還不清楚，那麼什麼時候才能更清楚地認識到，14 奈米/16 奈米的量產更像是 2016 年的事件，而不是 2015 年的事件？從 20 奈米到 FinFET 的重複使用是否存在風險，從而加劇您目前看到的一些不確定性？

John, to give you an answer, we do think the ramp-up is a 2015 event; it's not the 2016 event. When we look at the discussion that we have with customers in the planned shipments, also for the first half of 2015, that number is actually up from the second half of 2014. So as you would compare first six months 2015/second-half 2014, that number is up in the first half of 2015 for our logic customers.

約翰，給你一個答案，我們確實認為產量提升是 2015 年的事件；這不是 2016 年的活動。當我們與客戶討論計劃出貨量時，我們發現 2015 年上半年的數字實際上比 2014 年下半年有所上升。因此，當您比較 2015 年上半年和 2014 年下半年時，我們會發現 2015 年上半年我們邏輯客戶的出貨量有所上升。

That will not go into 28 nanometer only, and it's too early for a 10 nanometer insertion. That will probably be the second half of 2015. So as far as we are concerned and what we are seeing in customers -- are planning to ramp 16 nanometer and 14 nanometer FinFETs in 2015, not in 2016.

這不會只進入 28 奈米，而且進入 10 奈米還為時過早。那很可能是 2015 年下半年。所以就我們以及我們在客戶身上看到的情況而言——我們計劃在 2015 年而不是 2016 年推出 16 奈米和 14 奈米 FinFET。

That's helpful, Peter. And then for my follow-up, just getting back to the EUV, you guys have made some fairly steady progress throughout the year. I'm wondering if you can give us your assessment of the EUV ecosystem outside of ASML and how you feel like that's progressing? What's the weak link? What do you worry about as far as things you can't control? And at some point, do you think about using some of your own money to help accelerate investment in other areas, or do you think your customers can bring other suppliers along?

這很有幫助，彼得。然後，回到我的後續問題，回到 EUV 問題，你們全年都取得了相當穩定的進展。我想知道您是否可以對 ASML 以外的 EUV 生態系統進行評估，以及您認為其進展如何？薄弱環節是什麼？就您無法控制的事情而言，您會擔心什麼？在某個時候，您是否考慮使用自己的部分資金來幫助加速其他領域的投資，或者您認為您的客戶可以帶來其他供應商？

Yes. That's a long second follow-up, because there's a lot of elements to it. But I'll try to cover everything.

是的。這是一次漫長的第二次跟進，因為其中涉及很多元素。但我會盡力涵蓋所有內容。

With respect to the ecosystem, the EUV ecosystem, as it relates to the 10 nanometer learning manufacturing and the mid-node insertion, I think everything is there. So as for 10 nanometer, it's not the issue.

關於生態系統，EUV 生態系統，因為它與 10 奈米學習製造和中間節點插入相關，我認為一切都存在。對於 10 奈米來說，這不是問題。

If you would say, now you have to introduce today EUV for 7 nanometer, then there are certain areas where we still need to make progress. And those areas are specifically in the mask area -- in the mask inspection area, mask blanks, and patent masks. And also, we would like to have photoresist that has a higher level of stability that can be used in a mass manufacturing environment.

如果你說，現在你必須引入 7 奈米的 EUV，那麼我們仍然需要在某些領域取得進展。這些區域具體來說是掩模區域——掩模檢查區域、掩模空白和專利掩模。此外，我們希望擁有穩定性更高的光阻，可以在大規模生產環境中使用。

Now, having said that, I think -- in the discussion that we have with our customers, they all believe that those are elements of the ecosystem that we can control and that will be available when we move into 7 nanometer mass production. With respect to your question -- do they need to put money in that ecosystem? Well, it's not for me to comment on what customers should or shouldn't do in that sense, but I'm pretty sure that when they look at the advantage of the EUV, customers and suppliers of the missing links are going to sit together, and they will find solutions, I'm pretty sure. I have enough confidence in the discussions with our customers and with our colleagues in the industry that that will happen.

現在，話雖如此，我認為——在我們與客戶的討論中，他們都相信這些都是我們可以控制的生態系統元素，當我們進入 7 奈米大規模生產時，這些元素將會可用。關於您的問題—他們需要在該生態系統中投入資金嗎？好吧，我不能評論客戶在這個意義上應該做什麼或不應該做什麼，但我很確定，當他們看到 EUV 的優勢時，缺失環節的客戶和供應商會坐在一起，找到解決方案，我很確定。我對與我們的客戶和業內同事的討論充滿信心，相信這一目標一定會實現。

As to our own money, we do put some of our own money into play, but that is when it comes very close to what we ship and what we make. For instance, the development of a pellicle, which is kind of a protection membrane in front of the photomask -- that's something that we have developed. And because -- you could argue it's so much integral to our system, it's inside our system; that's what we did. But we do not intend to be a pellicle manufacturer, so somewhere down the line we will probably hand this over to a company that is more, I would say, adapted to this mass production of these pellicles. But, yes, we are putting some of our R&D money to work to make that happen.

至於我們自己的錢，我們確實投入了一部分自己的錢，但那隻是與我們運送的東西和製造的東西非常接近的。例如，我們已經開發出一種位於光掩模前面的保護膜——防護薄膜。而且因為－－你可以說它是我們系統不可或缺的一部分，它在我們的系統內部；我們就是這麼做的。但我們並不打算成為一家薄膜製造商，因此，在未來的某個時候，我們可能會把這項業務交給一家更適合大規模生產這些薄膜的公司。但是，是的，我們正在投入部分研發資金來實現這一目標。

Now I hope I covered everything that you asked me in your question.

現在我希望我涵蓋了您在問題中問我的所有內容。

You did, Peter. Thank you. Very helpful.

你確實做到了，彼得。謝謝。非常有幫助。

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

提摩西·阿庫裡，考恩公司。

Peter, you had talked previously about the total volume demand for 20 nanometer, 16 nanometer, and 14 nanometer being about 300,000; and now you are saying that you shipped about 175,000 of that into the market. Granted, it won't become productive volume until the middle of next year, but do you think that that -- A, do you think that that 300,000 has changed? And B, it seems like the 175,000 is a little bit ahead of where you had said last time. I was thinking more like 125,000. So I don't know if something changed, where you got some orders now that you have chewed farther into that 300,000? Can you sort of go into detail on that? Thanks.

Peter，您之前談過，20 奈米、16 奈米和 14 奈米的總需求量約為 300,000；現在您說您已向市場運送了約 175,000 輛。當然，它要到明年年中才能達到生產量，但您認為——答，您認為那 30 萬有變化嗎？而且 B，看起來 175,000 比您上次說的要多一點。我原本以為是 125,000。所以我不知道是否有什麼變化，既然你已經進一步深入研究了 300,000，你從哪裡得到了一些訂單？ 能詳細地講一下嗎？謝謝。

Yes. One word of warning is that these node transitions currently are a bit more complex than they were in the past. In the past, everybody went within a very short time period from one node to the other.

是的。需要注意的是，這些節點轉換目前比過去複雜一些。過去，每個人都在很短的時間內從一個節點到達另一個節點。

So it has become more difficult for us to see, when we ship a tool, whether the tool is being used in the ramp-up -- let's say the 20 nanometer node or a 16 nanometer FinFET node; or, because of the 28 nanometer demand, which is higher than we thought, it's still being used for 28 nanometer. That is, as you could say, it's more crossover flow now than we have ever seen before. That's a caveat when we talk about how many wafer starts are in a particular node.

因此，當我們運送一個工具時，我們很難知道該工具是否用於提升——比如說 20 奈米節點或 16 奈米 FinFET 節點；或者說，因為28奈米的需求比我們想像的要高，所以仍然在用28奈米。也就是說，正如您所說，現在的交叉流比我們以前見過的要多。當我們談論特定節點中有多少個晶圓啟動時，這是一個警告。

When we said 300,000 wafer starts and 175,000, what we are -- I must admit that today, because of the caveat that I just talked about, it is a bit unclear to what level that will indeed grow. Some of our people here look at the available fab space for logic customers, and they say, well, if you look at the available fab space for logic customers, somebody needs to come out, and they need to in any case announce an additional line to get to 300,000 wafer starts, because there's not enough space available.

當我們說 30 萬片晶圓啟動和 175,000 片晶圓時，我必須承認，今天，由於我剛才談到的警告，我們不太清楚這究竟會增長到什麼水平。我們這裡的一些人正在查看邏輯客戶可用的晶圓廠空間，他們說，好吧，如果你查看邏輯客戶可用的晶圓廠空間，就需要有人出來，無論如何他們都需要宣布增加一條生產線以達到 300,000 片晶圓的產量，因為沒有足夠的可用空間。

And that can be also explained by the fact that some of our customers that originally planned a fab to be a logic fab turned it into a DRAM fab. So there are always moving elements there that make it a bit difficult to say it's going to be 300,000 wafer starts, because all these elements which, if you cross over from node to node -- which is changes in customer allocations of that particular segment in which they want to produce chips from logic to DRAM -- make it difficult for us to say it's going to be that particular number.

這也可以透過以下事實來解釋：我們的一些客戶最初計劃將晶圓廠改造成邏輯晶圓廠，但後來將其改造成了 DRAM 晶圓廠。因此，總是存在一些變動因素，這使得我們很難說晶圓產量會達到 30 萬片，因為所有這些因素，如果從一個節點跨越到另一個節點 - - 即客戶在特定細分市場的分配發生變化，他們希望在該細分市場中從邏輯晶片生產到 DRAM 晶片 - - 使得我們很難說這將是那個特定的數字。

Like I also said, fab in our space is also a bit of a question, and you have to put it all together. Now, looking at this from a holistic point of view, we don't have sincere doubts that 300,000 wafer starts can be reached, but if you ask me when, and especially in the context of what we have already shipped -- so how much are we going to ship over the next 12 months? That's very difficult to answer. So no major doubts about the 300,000, but timing will be more difficult because of the issues that I just talked about.

就像我說的，我們領域中的晶圓廠也存在一些問題，你必須把所有因素綜合起來。現在，從整體來看，我們並不懷疑能否達到 30 萬片晶圓的出貨量，但如果你問我什麼時候能達到，特別是考慮到我們已經出貨的數量——那麼我們在未來 12 個月內要出貨多少呢？這個問題很難回答。因此，對於 30 萬這個數字並沒有什麼重大疑問，但由於我剛才談到的問題，時機的選擇將更加困難。

Got it, Peter. Thanks so much.

明白了，彼得。非常感謝。

Srini Sundararajan, Summit Research.

Srini Sundararajan，高峰會研究。

Could you give me some color on the bookings and backlog with respect to the DRAM/NAND fractions? I know you don't break it out right now, but based on the locations, could you maybe hazard a guess as to what might be the fraction for DRAM and what might be diffraction for NAND?

您能否提供有關 DRAM / NAND 部分的預訂和積壓情況的一些資訊？我知道您現在還沒有將其分解，但是根據位置，您是否可以猜測 DRAM 的比例是多少以及 NAND 的衍射是多少？

I think, as we said in the call -- sorry, in the introductory statements of this call -- that the place where we see some new capacity additions needed is for DRAM. NAND forms a pretty predictable path of about 100,000 wafer starts additions last year, which was about what we did this year, which was about what we did in 2013.

我認為，正如我們在電話會議中所說的那樣 - 抱歉，在本次電話會議的介紹性陳述中 - 我們認為需要增加一些新容量的地方是 DRAM。去年，NAND 的晶圓生產量增加了約 10 萬片，這與今年和 2013 年的表現大致相同，這是一個相當可預測的軌跡。

But where we see some acceleration of capacity is in the DRAM space. So if you want to put a qualitative answer to your question, I think it's a bit more skewed towards DRAM in terms of the bookings than to NAND. But it's not entirely clear, as you say, because customers switch from one to the other; but that's what my answer would be.

但我們看到 DRAM 領域的產能有所加速。因此，如果您想對您的問題給出定性的答案，我認為就預訂量而言，DRAM 比 NAND 更受青睞。但正如你所說，這並不完全清楚，因為客戶會從一個轉換到另一個；但我的答案就是這樣的。

Okay. As a quick follow-up, what kind of milestones do you have for the 10 nanometer implementation? Essentially, what would be the GO/NO GO regarding EUV versus multiple patterning?

好的。簡單問一下，您對 10 奈米實施有哪些里程碑？本質上，EUV 與多重圖案化相比，哪個更可行，哪個更不可行？

That's a simple one. That 500 good wafers per day. That's what customers tell us, is -- I mean, if we can get 500 good wafers per day, we will start. And that means that, clearly, when they move into 10 nanometer in 2016/2017, that 500 wafers per day should be, of course, more. And like we said, we have a target of 1,500.

這很簡單。每天生產 500 片優質晶圓。這就是客戶告訴我們的——我的意思是，如果我們每天能生產 500 個優質晶圓，我們就會開始生產。顯然，這意味著，當他們在 2016/2017 年進入 10 奈米時，每天 500 片晶圓的數量當然會更多。正如我們所說的，我們的目標是 1,500。

So a customer should have the confidence that we can grow to 1,500 wafers per day. But I would say the hurdle is the 500 good wafers per day -- that's what they will start off with. And then we will have enough confidence, together with our customers, to get to 1,500 wafers per day. And another milestone is, then, if they are confident that 500 wafers per day is sufficient to start, the next milestone is to get the orders in.

因此客戶應該相信我們可以將晶圓產量提高到每天 1,500 片。但我想說，最大的障礙是每天生產 500 片優質晶圓——這就是他們起步的目標。然後，我們將有足夠的信心與我們的客戶一起實現每天 1,500 片晶圓的生產目標。另一個里程碑是，如果他們確信每天 500 片晶圓足以啟動，那麼下一個里程碑就是獲得訂單。

Okay. Thank you very much.

好的。非常感謝。

C.J. Muse, ISI Group.

ISI 集團的 C.J. Muse。

I guess first question is a follow-up to a prior EUV question. You talked about nine shipments base case in calendar 2015. Curious what your outlook for potential upside to that number -- and where would it be driven by? Is it primarily foundry, or we also see a handful of DRAM in there?

我想第一個問題是對先前 EUV 問題的後續。您談到了 2015 年的九批出貨量基準情況。好奇您對這一數字的潛在上漲空間有何展望——以及它將受到哪些因素的推動？它主要是代工廠嗎，還是我們也看到其中有少量的 DRAM？

Yes, it's a good question. What we have seen -- again, it's a qualitative answer. What we have seen is those customers that are most advanced in the 10 nanometer development have put more pressure on us to get the EUV working.

是的，這是個好問題。我們所看到的——再次強調，這是一個定性的答案。我們看到，那些在 10 奈米開發方面最先進的客戶對我們施加了更大的壓力，要求我們讓 EUV 發揮作用。

I deduced from that that 10 nanometer is very difficult to do without the EUV. Now, could there be upside to that number? We gave you a number, so I'm not going to change that number; but the upside would come from the realization of customers that when they move on with their development, that they run into the same physics issues as our leading edge customer has actually run into.

我從中推斷，如果沒有 EUV，10 奈米就很難實現。那麼，這個數字還有上升空間嗎？我們給了你一個號碼，所以我不會改變這個號碼；但好處是，當客戶繼續開發時，他們會意識到自己遇到了與我們前沿客戶實際遇到的相同的物理問題。

I think that could create an upside. Whether that's an upside in terms of orders or shipments early 2016 or late 2015, I don't know. But what we have learned -- and let me say one thing. When we talk about customers, we don't talk about one voice. I mean, what we get back from customers is that the R&D people at the customer site are more and more inclined to look for EUV to solve their complexity issues.

我認為這可能會帶來好處。我不知道這對 2016 年初或 2015 年底的訂單或出貨量來說是否是一個利好。但我們學到了什麼——請容許我說一件事。當我們談論客戶時，我們談論的不是一個人的聲音。我的意思是，我們從客戶那裡得到的回饋是，客戶現場的研發人員越來越傾向於尋求 EUV 來解決他們的複雜性問題。

The operations people say that it's fine if you'd let them give me a solution that is reliable, that I can use even if it's with low productivity, but that I can design in my production process. So those are the type of discussions that we don't only have with our customers, but our customers also have internally. And that could drive upside. But I'm not willing and will not changing the numbers that we gave you today. But this gives you a qualitative background.

營運人員說，如果讓他們給我一個可靠的解決方案就好了，即使生產率較低我也可以使用，但我可以在生產過程中進行設計。因此，我們不僅在與客戶之間進行此類討論，而且我們的客戶內部也會進行此類討論。這可能會帶來上漲。但我不願意、也不會改變我們今天給你們的數字。但這給你提供了一個定性的背景。

True. That's helpful. I think as my follow-up, I get the uncertainty on the 20 nanometer, 16 nanometer, 14 nanometer foundry at -- given 175,000 installed by the end of the year, or at least shipped in your part -- but curious in terms of what you are seeing at 28 nanometer? I believe the industry added roughly 70,000, 80,000 wafer starts in 14 nanometer. Curious what kind of additions you see there, where it appears as though it's primarily UMC, SMIC, WALI as the only guys adding. I would love to get your vision for spend there in 2015.

真的。這很有幫助。我認為作為我的後續問題，我對 20 奈米、16 奈米、14 奈米代工廠的不確定性 - 考慮到今年年底將安裝 175,000 個，或至少在您所在的部分發貨 - 但我很好奇您在 28 奈米方面看到了什麼？我相信該行業在 14 奈米製程中增加了大約 70,000 到 80,000 個晶圓。好奇您在那裡看到了什麼樣的新增內容，看起來好像主要是 UMC、SMIC、WALI 是唯一的新增內容。我很想了解您對 2015 年支出的願景。

Yes, you mentioned three names, but those are three names, and we are talking about multiple systems. So you talk about not a low -- the capacity number that we are adding; those are three customers that have the capability to buy multiple systems and put them to work and have the business for it.

是的，您提到了三個名字，但那是三個名字，我們正在討論多個系統。所以你所說的並不低——我們增加的容量數字；這三位客戶有能力購買多個系統並投入使用，同時還擁有相應的業務。

So it is not marginal. It's a node that definitely grows significantly over 300,000 wafer starts per month, the way that we see it. And of course I cannot go into the detail per customer, what they are buying, and I will not do that; but it's multiple systems per customer.

所以它不是邊緣的。就我們看來，這個節點每月的晶圓生產量肯定會顯著增加超過 30 萬片。當然，我無法詳細介紹每個客戶，他們購買了什麼，我也不會這樣做；但每個客戶都有多個系統。

Very helpful. Thank you.

非常有幫助。謝謝。

Francois Meunier, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的 Francois Meunier。

Thanks for taking my question. The first one is -- you've got one slide showing that your laser is now working at 80 watts, which looks like good news to me. I'm just referring to a slide from your CTO, Martin van den Brink, that with 80 watts you could actually do 1,000 wafers per day; also, the old target of 69 wafers per hour. So is that something we can extrapolate from the 80 watts in your slides?

感謝您回答我的問題。第一個是——一張幻燈片顯示你的雷射現在以 80 瓦的功率工作，這對我來說是個好消息。我只是引用了你們首席技術官 Martin van den Brink 的一張幻燈片，上面說用 80 瓦的功率，你們每天實際上可以生產 1,000 片晶圓；此外，原定目標是每小時 69 片晶圓。那麼，我們可以從幻燈片中的 80 瓦推斷出這一點嗎？

Well, what you need to remember -- when we talk about 500 good wafers per day, we talk about an average. So there will be days when there is maintenance on the machine; there's overhead time on the machine. So in order to do 500 wafers per day reliably, you need to be over 500 wafers per day capability per day.

嗯，你需要記住的是——當我們談論每天 500 個優質晶圓時，我們談論的是平均值。所以會有機器需要維護的日子；機器上有額外時間。因此，為了可靠地每天生產 500 片晶圓，您每天的生產能力需要超過 500 片晶圓。

That's why Martin van den Brink said under the right conditions. And if we execute on our upgrade programs and our availability programs, then there will be days when we are closer to 1,000 wafers per day than to 500 wafers per day. But in order to get to the average, you need to have that capability. So it's all pretty much in line and in sync with what we are saying.

這就是馬丁范登布林克 (Martin van den Brink) 說「在適當的條件下」的原因。如果我們執行升級計劃和可用性計劃，那麼我們每天的晶圓產量將接近 1,000 片，而不是 500 片。但為了達到平均水平，你需要具備這種能力。所以這一切都與我們所說的基本一致且同步。

Okay. Now maybe more of a macro question on the chip sector. I'm sure you still have those -- access to the lithography machines which are in the field. Have you seen any weakness in terms of capacity utilization at some of the foundries or IDMs, given what we heard from microchip last week?

好的。現在可能更多的是關於晶片領域的宏觀問題。我確信你仍然能夠使用現場的光刻機。根據我們上週從微晶片公司聽到的消息，您是否發現一些代工廠或IDM的產能利用率有任何弱點？

No, we haven't seen that.

不，我們沒見過。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Gareth Jenkins, UBS.

瑞銀的加雷斯‧詹金斯。

One follow-up on an earlier question, if I could. I just wondered, with the change in, I guess, base case, or the sensitivity scenarios you put out there, Peter, I just wonder whether you could give a sense of whether EUV will still be inserted at 16 nanometer DRAM?

如果可以的話，我想就之前的問題進行一下跟進。我只是想知道，隨著基本情況或您提出的敏感度情景的變化，Peter，您是否可以判斷 EUV 是否仍會插入 16 奈米 DRAM？

And then just secondly -- sorry for the two. But I think I'm right in saying that you said that you expected planar NAND to come through early part of next year. I just wondered -- does that mean that there's more still to come through on the 3-D NAND side next year, and therefore maybe some upside as we're going through the year? Thank you.

其次，我對這兩位表示抱歉。但我認為我說得對，您說預計平面 NAND 將在明年年初問世。我只是想知道——這是否意味著明年 3-D NAND 方面還會有更多進展，因此我們今年可能會有一些上漲空間？謝謝。

Okay. With respect to your last question, this is what -- our expectation and what we see is that we do not expect the 3-D NAND capacity to ramp significantly next year. There is the installed capacity that, of course, needs to be fully utilized. I think that will probably happen next year, but we don't plan that.

好的。關於您的最後一個問題，我們的預期和看到的情況是，我們預計明年 3D NAND 產能不會大幅增加。當然，需要充分利用已安裝的容量。我認為這可能會在明年發生，但我們沒有計劃這麼做。

So if there would be a need for a lot of additional 3-D NAND capacity, that would be an upside for us. That's not what we are currently planning.

因此，如果需要大量額外的 3-D NAND 容量，這對我們來說將是一個優勢。這不是我們目前的計劃。

And with respect to planar, yes, we see the capacity additions that we are currently being asked -- logic going into areas where there is 2-D planar production. That's where it goes.

關於平面，是的，我們看到了目前要求的產能增加——邏輯進入了二維平面生產的領域。事情就是這樣的。

With respect to EUV insertion, a 19 nanometer DRAM -- you didn't ask 19; you asked 16. But 19 nanometer DRAM -- we still think our customers can get around that with, let's say, complex immersion. But at 16 nanometer it's our -- I believe, also based on discussion with customers, that we move into the EUV territory.

關於 EUV 插入，19 奈米 DRAM——你沒有問 19；你問的是 16。但對於 19 奈米 DRAM——我們仍然認為我們的客戶可以透過複雜的浸入來解決這個問題。但在 16 奈米時，我相信，這也是基於與客戶的討論，我們將進入 EUV 領域。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Kai Korschelt, Merrill Lynch.

美林證券的 Kai Korschelt。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I had a couple. The first one was, again -- I'm sorry -- about that follow-on on the EUV revenue recognition. So I'm just wondering, could this end up being a sort of pro rata revenue recognition depending on milestones situation?

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。我有幾個。第一個問題，再次——抱歉——是關於 EUV 收入確認的後續問題。所以我只是想知道，這最終是否會成為一種根據里程碑情況按比例確認的收入？

Or could it be a bit more binary outcome, where you either recognize a majority of revenue for the tools in 2015 or 2016? Or could be it be smoothed, I guess, is my first question?

或者它可能是更二元化的結果，即您要么在 2015 年或 2016 年確認工具的大部分收入？ 或者它可以被平滑，我想，這是我的第一個問題？

And the follow up would be on memory. On DRAM, I'm just wondering -- from your perspective, how much is the current strength driven by mobile versus PC? And the reason I'm asking is if PCs were to soften again, do you think that it may impact demand for DRAM tools next year? Thank you.

後續將會關注記憶。關於 DRAM，我只是想知道——從您的角度來看，當前的優勢在多大程度上是由行動裝置而不是 PC 推動的？我問這個問題的原因是，如果個人電腦再次疲軟，您認為這會影響明年對 DRAM 工具的需求嗎？謝謝。

Okay. With respect to the rev rec, it's speculative, because we are negotiating those terms and conditions. So it could be all of the above, you could say, everything that you all mentioned.

好的。關於 rev rec，這只是推測，因為我們正在協商這些條款和條件。因此，可以說，以上所有情況都是你們所提到的一切。

But that is a speculative answer which I don't want to give, really, because it is about what we will be able to negotiate with our customers. And I'd like to repeat what I said. First, it's very important that the customers recognize the value of the machine, and that they are also trying to manage their risks in terms of the introduction, in terms of the tool performance -- that there are conditions, at that, which will have certain performance criteria is logical.

但這只是我不想給出的推測性答案，因為這關係到我們能否與客戶進行協商。我想重複我說過的話。首先，讓客戶認識到機器的價值非常重要，而且他們也要試圖在引進、工具性能方面管理風險——在有條件的情況下，有一定的性能標準是合乎邏輯的。

Now, how that will, in the end, look and how severe those will be, we'll just have to see. For us the most important part is that we have a PO within around EUR90 million, or we going to be EUR90 million-plus PO value, that will be recognized. Matter of time.

現在，最終情況會如何，嚴重程度如何，我們只能拭目以待。對我們來說，最重要的部分是，我們擁有價值約 9,000 萬歐元的採購訂單，或價值超過 9,000 萬歐元的採購訂單，這將得到認可。時間問題。

And it is about the introduction of EUV into manufacturing, getting up the learning curve. That's the most important one, because EUV is not about 2015 revenue recognition. It is about 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and the next decade, which will drive the top line of this Company. So it is all about that, not so much about the rev rec of the first few tools.

這是關於將 EUV 引入製造業，並提高學習曲線。這是最重要的一點，因為 EUV 與 2015 年的收入確認無關。這是關於 2016 年、2017 年、2018 年、2019 年以及未來十年，這將推動該公司的營收成長。所以，一切都與此有關，而不是與前幾個工具的 rev rec 有關。

The NAND and the mobile -- yes, I think we sometimes discuss this with customers, whether it's mobile-driven or PC-driven. But in this particular case we simply don't have enough evidence and not enough intelligence to give you an answer. And I don't want to speculate here, also; so I am afraid I have to pass on this answer.

NAND 和行動裝置——是的，我想我們有時會與客戶討論這個問題，無論是行動驅動還是 PC 驅動。但在這個特殊的案例中，我們根本沒有足夠的證據和足夠的情報來給你答案。我也不想在這裡猜測；所以恐怕我必須傳達這個答案。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Andrew Gardiner, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的安德魯·加德納。

Good afternoon. Thank you. Just sort of a higher-level question looking out into next year, really: for the past couple of years you guys have been willing to provide us with not only a one-quarter-ahead revenue guidance, but also a slightly longer-term -- normally, say, for the next six months. This time around you haven't done that.

午安.謝謝。這其實只是一個展望明年的更高層次的問題：過去幾年裡，你們不僅願意為我們提供未來一個季度的收入指引，而且還願意提供稍微長期的指引——通常比如說未來六個月的指引。這次你沒有這樣做。

I can appreciate the uncertainty around the foundry side, given indecision in parts of the food chain; but it does seem, certainly, from an industry perspective and from what you are saying, of course, that spending will need to happen from one of the two parties involved. So if we combine that with backlog at levels not seen since early 2011, it seems to me that you should have at least a good baseline from which to work for the next year.

鑑於食品鏈各環節的猶豫不決，我可以理解代工廠方面的不確定性；但從行業角度以及您所說的情況來看，確實需要由所涉及的兩方中的一方來支出。因此，如果我們將其與 2011 年初以來未見的積壓水平結合起來，我認為你應該至少有一個良好的基準，可以為明年的工作奠定基礎。

So shouldn't this support year-on-year growth on an underlying basis in the first half of next year, even before we consider EUV? Is this a reasonable starting spot? And are there more details you can provide about what you are classifying as a strong start to next year? Thank you.

那麼，在我們考慮 EUV 之前，這不應該在明年上半年從根本上支持同比增長嗎？這是一個合理的起點嗎？您能否提供更多細節來說明您如何定義明年的強勁開局？謝謝。

Let me take a crack at this. This is Wolfgang, Andrew. Indeed, there is not enough clarity, visibility, and certainty to give you a number, but probably can summarize a bit from a qualitative perspective.

讓我嘗試一下。這是沃夫岡，安德魯。確實，沒有足夠的清晰度、可見性和確定性來給你一個數字，但可能可以從定性的角度總結一下。

It is a strong start; that's clear. It's driven by DRAM, but it's also driven by the expansion on capacity on 20 nanometer, 16 nanometer, 14 nanometer. But if you go by the different segments, DRAM and NAND, there's really no significant change. We had a good quarter this year, and our bit growth assumptions are pretty stable -- around 40% NAND and about 25% in DRAM.

這是一個好的開始；很清楚。這是由 DRAM 推動的，但也是由 20 奈米、16 奈米、14 奈米容量擴展所推動的。但如果按照 DRAM 和 NAND 這兩個不同的部分來看，其實並沒有顯著的變化。我們今年的一個季度表現不錯，我們的比特成長假設相當穩定——NAND 約為 40%，DRAM 約為 25%。

So the year's overall shouldn't look all that different. On logic foundry non-EUV -- you heard about the three components. I mean, there is still significant buildout on 20 nanometer, 16 nanometer, 14 nanometer.

因此，今年的整體情況應該不會有太大不同。關於邏輯代工非 EUV——您聽說過這三個組件。我的意思是，20 奈米、16 奈米、14 奈米方面仍有顯著的進展。

And then what people sometimes underestimate is that we have still shipments on 28 nanometer; and then Peter told you there are several customers, so a significant shipment. Plus, customers are pushing very hard -- or at least one customer -- to get 10 nanometer in as early as possible, with potential shipments, pilot shipments, towards the end of the year as well. So we wouldn't be surprised if that logic foundry is up year over year.

人們有時會低估的是，我們仍然有 28 奈米的出貨量；然後彼得告訴你有幾個客戶，所以出貨量很大。此外，客戶（至少有一位客戶）正在極力推動儘早獲得 10 奈米技術，並計劃在年底前進行潛在出貨和試點出貨。因此，如果邏輯代工廠的產能逐年增加，我們不會感到驚訝。

Now, EUV we have discussed a lot -- that's the big wildcard. We know what we think we will ship, but we don't know what we will recognize. In terms of IDM, we have also said before that on the current volume node, we had a strong year this year, and we'll have a little bit of a weaker year next year. But then we are ramping into the next node, so that should be flattish.

現在，我們已經討論了很多 EUV——這是一個很大的未知數。我們知道我們會運送什麼，但我們不知道我們會識別什麼。就IDM而言，我們之前也說過，就目前的交易量節點而言，今年我們的表現強勁，而明年的表現會稍微弱一些。但隨後我們進入下一個節點，因此這應該是平穩的。

And then what we sometimes forget in these discussions -- field options and services have been improving over the years. So the timing is a wildcard. The where and when is a wildcard. But in general we feel pretty good about the year ahead of us.

在這些討論中，我們有時會忘記——現場選項和服務多年來一直在不斷改進。因此時機尚不確定。地點和時間是一個通配符。但整體而言，我們對未來的一年感到十分樂觀。

Thanks. I appreciate it.

謝謝。我很感激。

Pierre Ferragu, Bernstein.

皮耶費拉古、伯恩斯坦。

On EUV, so it seems that getting to 500 wafers per day at the end of the year is really the last critical milestone. And if I understand correctly, you need to increase with your maximum throughput per day and make sure that you can sustain that kind of level for several days.

對 EUV 而言，到年底達到每天 500 片晶圓的產量似乎是最後一個關鍵里程碑。如果我理解正確的話，您需要增加每天的最大吞吐量，並確保可以維持這種水平數天。

Could you take us through what's going to be -- what could be challenging in achieving that? So what are the technical difficulties that you are going to face by having this endurance test during longer?

您能否向我們介紹一下實現這項目標將面臨哪些挑戰？那麼進行更長時間的耐力測試會面臨哪些技術困難呢？

And then maybe take us through how you are going to manage that. Is that something you are doing internally in your own labs, or is that something your key clients are working on at the moment? And how much control do you have on timing for that? And maybe what would be the news flow we should expect from here on that front?

然後請您向我們介紹您將如何處理這個問題。這是你們在自己的實驗室內部進行的研究，還是你們的主要客戶目前正在進行的研究？您對時間的控制能力有多強？那麼，在這方面我們該期待什麼樣的新聞呢？

Let me answer the last question first: how do we manage this? We manage this not only internally but in very close cooperation with our customers. EUV is as important to us as it is to our customers, or it is as important to our customers as it is to us.

讓我先回答最後一個問題：我們該如何處理這個問題？我們不僅在內部管理這一點，而且還與我們的客戶密切合作。 EUV 對我們和我們的客戶一樣重要，或者說它對我們的客戶和我們一樣重要。

So at every site where customers are getting really serious about EUV, putting into manufacturing environment, we have almost a one-team approach. So we have to do this, because it is complex; it's new. Somebody asked a question about the ecosystem -- we need to understand all those elements, also: how it relates or if it relates to our lithography performance.

因此，在每個客戶真正重視 EUV 並投入製造環境的站點，我們幾乎都採用單一團隊的方法。所以我們必須這樣做，因為它很複雜；它是新的。有人問了一個關於生態系統的問題——我們還需要了解所有這些元素：它與我們的光刻性能有何關係，或者是否相關。

So this is how we manage it. It's not in isolation. It's very much with our customers.

這就是我們的管理方式。它並不是孤立的。這與我們的客戶息息相關。

And so news flow will also come out of customers. News flow will be, going forward, news flow about performances at customer sites. There will be a news flow about all of this. That's what you need to look at, and that's what you can expect.

因此新聞流也會從客戶傳出來。未來的新聞流將是有關客戶現場表現的新聞流。這一切都會有新聞報道。這就是您需要關注的，也是您能夠期待的。

Now, in terms of what do we look at in terms of making progress -- what are the areas: I would refer you to slide 21 of our presentation.

現在，關於我們在取得進展方面關注的領域是什麼：請您參閱我們簡報的第 21 張投影片。

Slide 21 says: in fact, when you want to improve wafers per day, and how do we get to more than 500 wafers per day -- it has three elements. It's the element of source power; it's the element of the system availability, which is the source system availability; and the scanner. And the latter is more the integration of the source with the scanner.

投影片 21 說：事實上，當你想提高每天的晶圓產量時，我們如何達到每天 500 片以上的晶圓產量——這有三個要素。它是源頭力量的元素；是系統可用性的要素，即來源系統可用性；和掃描器。而後者更多的是源與掃描器的整合。

Now, the source power has four elements that are specifically focused on in terms of development programs and the things that we did together with our customers, which is what we call the conversion efficiency -- how much EUV light can you get out of the plasma out of the tin and of the CO2 laser?

現在，光源功率有四個要素，這些要素是我們與客戶共同開發的計劃和工作中特別關注的，這就是我們所說的轉換效率——你能從錫和二氧化碳激光器的等離子體中得到多少 EUV 光？

The drive laser power -- which I just talked about, the CO2 laser power -- is the dose margin. How much EUV dose do you get stable out of the EUV plasma? It's the laser to droplet control. And where we've got the system availability, it's the automation, which is basically metrology and the feedback systems; the lifetime of the collector, which actually we made a lot of progress on; the reliability of the droplet generator, which is, you could say, the tin machine gun; and the drive laser reliability.

驅動雷射功率——我剛才談到的，二氧化碳雷射功率——是劑量裕度。從 EUV 等離子體中可以獲得多少穩定的 EUV 劑量？這是雷射對液滴的控制。我們的系統可用性在於自動化，基本上是計量和反饋系統；收集器的壽命，實際上我們在這方面取得了很大進展；液滴產生器的可靠性，你可以說它是錫機槍；以及驅動雷射器的可靠性。

Those are, again, full programs. And each have a defined and a very specific set of engineers that are looking at this and then integrate this into the system in the field.

再次強調，這些都是完整的程序。每個部門都有一組特定的工程師來研究這個問題，然後將其整合到現場系統中。

And then, of course, you have the scanner, which you could say is least of our problems. But there is a lot of integration and overhead elimination in terms of time between the source and the scanner.

當然，還有掃描儀，可以說這是我們最不擔心的問題。但在時間方面，源和掃描器之間存在大量的整合和開銷消除。

Now, it's a long list, but it is -- in fact, it's those 12 issues that are shown on slide 21, all of them contributing to more than 500 wafers per day, more than 1,000 wafers per day, and more than 1,500 wafers per day. And this is how you need to look at it.

現在，這是一個很長的清單，但事實上，第 21 張幻燈片上顯示的就是這 12 個問題，它們都導致每天的晶圓產量超過 500 塊、每天超過 1,000 塊以及每天超過 1,500 塊晶圓。你需要這樣看待它。

And you could argue it's all part of a chain, and they all need to improve. One has a bigger impact than the other. But it is -- if you want to get to the ultimate 1,500 wafers per day or even 2,000 wafers per day going forward, then those are the 12 elements that we constantly need to monitor, manage, and make real progress on.

您可能會說這都是鏈條的一部分，它們都需要改進。其中一個的影響比另一個更大。但事實是——如果想要最終實現每天生產 1,500 片晶圓甚至 2,000 片晶圓的目標，那麼我們就需要不斷監控、管理這 12 個要素，並取得真正的進展。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Weston Twigg, Pacific Crest Securities.

太平洋頂峰證券公司的韋斯頓·特維格 (Weston Twigg)。

I just wanted to clarify, on R&D -- a year ago I think you indicated that quarterly R&D would drop to around EUR250 million a quarter by the end of this year. It looks like you are guiding it to EUR260 million, but I think you mentioned earlier on the call that you still hope to hit EUR250 million in 2015. So I wanted to clarify that that is the case and then see if you can tell us when you expect to hit that EUR250 million a quarter number.

我只是想澄清一下，關於研發——一年前，我記得您曾表示，到今年年底，季度研發費用將下降到每季約 2.5 億歐元。看起來您將其目標設定為 2.6 億歐元，但我記得您之前在電話會議上提到過，您仍然希望在 2015 年達到 2.5 億歐元。所以我想澄清一下情況確實如此，然後看看您是否可以告訴我們您預計何時能達到每季 2.5 億歐元的目標。

Certainly, EUR250 million is the target for 2015. I've got to tell you, also, that a large chunk of our R&D is flexible. So it depends really on projects and programs that we are also doing with the outside world. So it could be -- one quarter could be a little bit higher; one could be a little bit lower.

當然，2.5億歐元是2015年的目標。我還必須告訴你，我們很大一部分的研發都是彈性的。因此，這實際上取決於我們與外界合作的項目和計劃。所以有可能——一個季度可能會稍微高一點；可以稍微低一點。

So that is still the target as it relates to Q4. We kept it a bit higher, because with all the progress that we are having, we didn't want to limit any of the projects that are ongoing right now. But the target is consistent with what we have said before.

因此，這仍然是與第四季相關的目標。我們將其保持在稍高一些，因為儘管我們取得了進展，但我們不想限制目前正在進行的任何專案。但目標和我們之前說的一致。

Okay. Good. And then, just as a follow up on the DRAM side, can you just clarify where you are seeing -- which node, I guess, you are seeing the capacity expansion happen in? And could you tell us if it's -- I guess I'm wondering about the litho intensity, whether it's more space or double patterning based or litho edge patterning?

好的。好的。然後，作為對 DRAM 方面的後續關注，您能否澄清一下您所看到的情況 - 我猜您看到容量擴展發生在哪個節點？您能否告訴我們—我想知道光刻強度，它是否有更多的空間或基於雙重圖案或光刻邊緣圖案？

In DRAM it's -- the complexity needs double patterning solutions. And it's sort of 20 nanometers, so we're moving into the 19 nanometer node for the leading edge. But also, in DRAM you see customers having different roadmaps.

在 DRAM 中，複雜性需要雙重圖案化解決方案。它的尺寸大約是 20 奈米，因此我們正在進入 19 奈米節點的前沿。但同樣，在 DRAM 中，你會看到客戶有不同的路線圖。

You have -- the most aggressive customers are moving into the 19 nanometer DRAM node. There are still customers that are in the low 20s. So this is the area.

最積極的客戶正在轉向 19 奈米 DRAM 節點。仍有 20 多歲的顧客。這就是該區域。

But you are right: those 19 nanometer devices, they need to hold some double-patterning layers, and that is what drives up the litho intensity. And it also creates a situation whereby the wafer out capacity, of course, goes down, because you have more layers and you have more multipass patterning. So per definition, if you don't build a new fab, you have fewer wafers out in that industry -- which is the reason -- I think one of the main reasons why customers are adding some extra capacity, to keep the wafer out capacity basically stable.

但你是對的：那些 19 奈米的設備，它們需要容納一些雙重圖案層，這就是提高光刻強度的原因。當然，這也會導致晶圓產能下降，因為層數更多，而且多道次圖案化也更多。因此，根據定義，如果你不建造新的晶圓廠，那麼該行業的晶圓產量就會減少 - 這就是原因 - 我認為客戶增加額外產能的主要原因之一，就是保持晶圓產能基本穩定。

Okay. Good. Thank you.

好的。好的。謝謝。

Amit Harchandani, Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿米特·哈爾錢達尼 (Amit Harchandani)。

Amit Harchandani from Citigroup. Thanks for taking my question.

花旗集團的阿米特‧哈昌達尼 (Amit Harchandani)。感謝您回答我的問題。

My first question is really in terms of the improvement and progress that we are seeing, particularly with respect to EUV over the last 6 to 12 months. I understand you are closely working in cooperation with your key R&D suppliers. Going forward, do you see a need to increase your intensity levels of cooperation with any of the particular suppliers? Are there any particular pain areas that you see at this point of time within your supply chain? Not necessarily making a move like Cymer, but are there any areas still where you could potentially increase the level of cooperation to accelerate the progress on EUV? That would be my first question.

我的第一個問題實際上是關於我們所看到的改進和進步，特別是過去 6 到 12 個月 EUV 方面的改進和進步。我了解到您正在與您的主要研發供應商密切合作。展望未來，您是否認為有必要加強與特定供應商的合作強度？目前，您是否發現您的供應鏈中存在哪些特別的痛點？不一定要像 Cymer 那樣採取行動，但是是否還有哪些領域可以提高合作水平以加速 EUV 的進展？這是我的第一個問題。

Okay. It's almost a rhetorical question. Yes, of course we need to increase the level of cooperation with our suppliers, because as there's always room for an improvement in that area. But generally, I will say the level of cooperation and the depth of cooperation with our key suppliers is such that we don't need to go that much further. It is more about the clarity, sometimes, of roles and responsibilities in terms of the resolution of some technical issues.

好的。這幾乎是一個反問句。是的，我們當然需要加強與供應商的合作水平，因為該領域總有改進的空間。但總的來說，我認為我們與主要供應商的合作程度和合作深度已經足夠，我們不需要走得太遠。有時，它更多是關於解決某些技術問題時角色和職責的明確性。

But that's normal. We don't need to do anything else. I think we are where we are. We need to intensify the efficiency, but not so much more suppliers or a deeper level of cooperation. What we have should be good enough. We just need to move on to industrialization, which means that we need to move out of a development phase with our suppliers into a predictable industrial production environment. And that will probably -- based on our experience gives us some additional challenges, because when you go into a volume industrial production, then you run into new issues.

但這很正常。我們不需要做任何其他事情。我認為我們現在就處於這樣的境地。我們需要提高效率，但不需要太多的供應商或更深層的合作。我們所擁有的應該已經夠好了。我們只需要走向工業化，這意味著我們需要與供應商一起走出開發階段，進入可預測的工業生產環境。根據我們的經驗，這可能會為我們帶來一些額外的挑戰，因為當你進行大規模工業生產時，你會遇到新的問題。

But that doesn't need any deeper cooperation. It just needs better and more efficient cooperation once we move into volume.

但這不需要任何更深入的合作。一旦我們進入大量生產階段，就需要更好、更有效的合作。

Okay. And just as a quick follow-up, given the new scenario you have outlined for EUV for 2015, does that in any way alter your build plan for EUV for 2015? Because I understand earlier you had a scenario even as high as 12 to 15 tools. Based on what you see today with the level of uncertainty you see on the foundry side, does that in any way change your build plans? And how do you go about building these tools over the next six to nine months?

好的。再問一下，鑑於您為 2015 年 EUV 概述的新情景，這是否會改變您 2015 年 EUV 的建設計劃？ 因為我之前了解到您甚至遇到多達 12 到 15 種工具的情況。根據您今天看到的情況以及代工方面的不確定性程度，這是否會改變您的建設計劃？在接下來的六到九個月內，您將如何建立這些工具？

Well, it hasn't really changed in the sense that we said one system per month, but then we just started. We do this six months later. So it changed the build plan in the sense that we asked the modules and the parts to come in six months later. That's what it will mean. So no fundamental change.

嗯，從我們所說的每月一個系統的角度來看，它實際上並沒有改變，但我們才剛剛開始。六個月後我們就會這麼做。因此，從某種意義上說，我們改變了建造計劃，要求模組和零件在六個月後到達。這就是它的意義。因此沒有根本性的改變。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Adithya Metuku, BofA Merrill Lynch.

Adithya Metuku，美銀美林。

My questions have largely been answered. Just a quick question on EUV gross margins. If you could comment on those next year -- how do you see the progression? And a question on -- if you could clarify the tax rates. Your tax rates in the last couple of quarters have been better than what we have been expecting. That would be very useful. Thanks very much.

我的問題大部分已經得到解答。關於 EUV 毛利率的一個簡單問題。如果您明年可以對此發表評論——您如何看待進展？還有一個問題——您是否可以澄清一下稅率。過去幾季的稅率比我們預期的要好。那將會非常有用。非常感謝。

Yes. In terms of EUV gross margin, we are in general terms still on the track that once we are in volume production, somewhere in two years or so after we introduce the 3350 and ship the 3350 we should be somewhere around the 40% mark. And this next year is going to be better. It depends a little bit on the terms and conditions as well. It's going to be much better than what we had in the current year.

是的。就 EUV 毛利率而言，我們總體上仍處於正軌上，一旦我們投入量產，在我們推出 3350 並出貨 3350 大約兩年後，我們的毛利率應該在 40% 左右。明年將會更好。這也在一定程度上取決於條款和條件。這將比今年的情況好得多。

And we have always said we are shooting for the 20% range. So we will hopefully be somewhere in that range.

我們一直說我們的目標是 20% 的範圍。因此我們希望能夠處於這個範圍內。

And the second part of your question was regarding the tax rate. We've always said you should model around 10% for your longer-term model. The last two years were driven by one-time events, and that was up 1% in the year we are currently in. We are expecting somewhere around 6% or so, because some of the Cymer-related effects carry into 2014 as well. So 6% this year, and then I would put 10% in the model from 2015 on.

你問題的第二部分是關於稅率的。我們一直說，你的長期模型應該以 10% 左右為宜。過去兩年都是由一次性事件推動的，今年這一數字上漲了 1%。我們預計漲幅將在 6% 左右，因為一些與 Cymer 相關的影響也將延續到 2014 年。所以今年是 6%，然後從 2015 年起我會在模型中放入 10%。

Let me just break in here and just suggest that we have time for one last call. And anybody who was unable to ask their question or has remaining questions, feel free to contact the Investor Relations group. And we'll do our very best to get back to you as quickly as possible.

讓我打斷一下，建議我們留出時間進行最後一次通話。如果您無法提出問題或仍有問題，請隨時聯絡投資者關係小組。我們將盡最大努力盡快回覆您。

So now, Kirsten, if we can have the last question, please?

那現在，Kirsten，我們可以問最後一個問題嗎？

Johannes Schaller, Deutsche Bank.

約翰內斯·夏勒，德意志銀行。

Wolfgang, you mentioned the good growth in field services and options. I was just wondering generally how we should think about that going into next year? There is probably already a pretty good attach rate for a lot of the field options with the new tools you are selling. How should we think about that? And then, also, in the installed base, how much more room is there to grow that? Thank you.

沃爾夫岡，您提到了現場服務和選擇的良好增長。我只是想知道我們總體上應該如何考慮明年的事情？對於您銷售的新工具而言，許多現場選件可能已經具有相當不錯的附著率。我們該如何看待這個問題？那麼，在已安裝的基礎上，還有多少成長空間呢？謝謝。

We think you should model that in the low 400s. This year will be somewhere around 400, and then it will grow into the low 400s. And it's driven by service; it's driven by options; and it's also driven by bigger upgrades that we are doing in the field right now.

我們認為您應該在 400 以下進行建模。今年將會在 400 左右，然後會成長到 400 出頭。它是由服務驅動的；它是由選擇驅動的；這也是受到我們目前在現場進行的更大升級的推動。

That's helpful. Thank you.

這很有幫助。謝謝。

You're welcome.

不客氣。

All right, everybody. On behalf of ASML's Board of Management, I'd like to thank you for joining us on the call today. Operator, if you could formally conclude the call, I would appreciate it. Thanks.

好的，各位。我謹代表 ASML 管理委員會感謝您今天參加我們的電話會議。接線員，如果您能正式結束通話，我將不勝感激。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML third-quarter 2014 results conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2014 年第三季業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。