艾司摩爾 (ASML) 2014 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the ASML first-quarter results conference call on April 16, 2014. (Operator Instructions)

女士們、先生們，感謝你們的支持。歡迎參加2014年4月16日ASML第一季業績電話會議。（操作員指示）

I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Craig DeYoung. Please go ahead, sir.

現在我想將會議交給 Craig DeYoung 先生。先生，請繼續。

Thank you, Kiersten, and good afternoon and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. This is Craig DeYoung, Vice President of Investor Relations at ASML. Joining today from our headquarters in Veldhoven, The Netherlands, is our CEO, Peter Wennink, and our CFO, Wolfgang Nickl.

謝謝您，基爾斯汀。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。我是 ASML 投資人關係副總裁 Craig DeYoung。今天，我們的執行長 Peter Wennink 和財務長 Wolfgang Nickl 從荷蘭費爾德霍芬總部前來參加會議。

The subject of today's call is ASML's first-quarter 2014 results. This call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at www.ASML.com and replay of the call will be available on our website for approximately 90 days.

今天電話會議的主題是 ASML 2014 年第一季的業績。此次電話會議也將透過網路在 www.ASML.com 上進行現場直播，並且會議重播將在我們的網站上提供約 90 天。

Before we begin, I would like to caution listeners that comments made by management during this conference call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These forward-looking statements involve material risks and uncertainties. For a discussion of risk factors, I encourage you to review the Safe Harbor statement contained in today's press release and presentation found on our website and in our annual report on Form 20-F and other documents as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

在我們開始之前，我想提醒聽眾，管理階層在本次電話會議中發表的評論將包括聯邦證券法所定義的前瞻性陳述。這些前瞻性陳述涉及重大風險和不確定性。對於風險因素的討論，我建議您查看今天的新聞稿和我們網站上的簡報以及我們提交給美國證券交易委員會的 20-F 表年度報告和其他文件中包含的安全港聲明。

Just as a reminder, the length of the call is 60 minutes, as usual. Now I would like to turn the call over to Peter Wennink for a brief introduction.

提醒一下，通話時間通常為 60 分鐘。現在我想把電話轉給 Peter Wennink 做簡短的介紹。

Thank you, Craig. Good afternoon, good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for attending our first-quarter results conference call.

謝謝你，克雷格。女士們、先生們，下午好，早安。感謝您參加我們的第一季業績電話會議。

Before we begin the Q&A session, Wolfgang and I would like to provide an overview and some commentary on our first-quarter results and provide our view of the coming quarters. Wolfgang will start with a review of our first-quarter financial performance and will add some comments also on the short term outlook. I will complete the introduction with some further comments on the current general business environment in which we are working and our future business outlook. Wolfgang, if you will?

在我們開始問答環節之前，沃夫岡和我想對我們的第一季業績進行概述和評論，並對未來幾季發表看法。沃爾夫岡將首先回顧我們的第一季財務業績，並對短期前景發表一些評論。最後，我將對我們目前所處的整體商業環境以及未來的業務前景進行一些進一步的評論。沃夫岡，你願意嗎？

Thank you, Peter, and welcome, everyone. Q1 revenue was in line with our guidance of EUR1.4 billion. It was largely driven by sales to our memory customers, which represented about two-thirds of our systems revenue. Also, as anticipated, we recognized revenue for one EUV system during the quarter.

謝謝你，彼得，歡迎大家。第一季的營收符合我們的預期，為 14 億歐元。這很大程度上是由我們對記憶體客戶的銷售所推動的，這占我們系統收入的三分之二左右。此外，正如預期的那樣，我們在本季度確認了一套 EUV 系統的收入。

ASPs of all tools sold remained constant at about EUR26 million in the quarter. Service and field option sales accounted for EUR367 million of revenue.

本季銷售的所有工具的平均銷售價格保持不變，約為 2,600 萬歐元。服務和現場選項銷售額為3.67億歐元。

Gross margin came in above guidance at 43.6%, helped by a favorable product mix and the contribution of holistic lithography option products. With R&D and SG&A line with our expectations, gross margin enabled our quarterly earnings to exceed Street expectation.

得益於良好的產品組合和整體光刻選件產品的貢獻，毛利率達到 43.6%，高於預期。由於研發和銷售、一般及行政費用符合我們的預期，毛利率使我們的季度收益超出了華爾街的預期。

Turning to the balance sheet, we ended Q1 with approximately EUR3 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, roughly flat with the prior quarter. During Q1 we bought back 2.3 million shares for a total of about EUR147 million. This leaves us approximately EUR553 million available for repurchases for the remainder of this calendar year. This represents about 55% of the EUR1 billion 2013/2014 buyback program announced last year.

談到資產負債表，我們第一季末的現金、現金等價物和短期投資約為 30 億歐元，與上一季基本持平。第一季度，我們回購了 230 萬股，總價值約 1.47 億歐元。這使得我們在今年剩餘時間內有大約 5.53 億歐元可供回購。這約佔去年宣布的10億歐元2013/2014年回購計畫的55%。

As a reminder, we will propose to increase our dividend by 15% to EUR0.61 per ordinary share at our AGM on April 23 next week. This dividend will be payable on May 13 to shareholders of record as of April 29.

提醒一下，我們將在下週 4 月 23 日的年度股東大會上提議將股息提高 15% 至每股普通股 0.61 歐元。該股將於 5 月 13 日支付給 4 月 29 日登記在冊的股東。

Our system order backlog at the end of Q1 remains constant quarter over quarter at just under EUR2 billion, excluding EUVs. The number of NXT1970 immersion tools has increased from 14 at the end of December to 24 exiting March. Our system backlog is almost evenly balanced among memory, IDM, and foundry customers.

我們第一季末的系統訂單積壓量與上一季相比保持不變，略低於 20 億歐元（不包括 EUV）。NXT1970 浸入式工具的數量已從 12 月底的 14 個增加到 3 月的 24 個。我們的系統積壓訂單在記憶體、IDM 和代工客戶之間幾乎達到均衡。

With that, I would like to turn to our expectations for Q2 and Q3. Let me start with a view of the markets we serve.

有了這些，我想談談我們對第二季和第三季的預期。首先讓我介紹一下我們所服務的市場。

We are experiencing solid demand in memory with some uncertainty on the ramp of 3-D versus planar NAND, which is changing our product mix slightly. IDM is experiencing strong year-over-year growth, as expected, and in foundry we see strong demand for the 28 nanometer node, but expect some adjustments to shipments for the continued ramp to volume production for both 20 nanometer planar transistor and the 16/14 nanometer thin set node. These adjustments are impacting our revenue forecast for Q2 and Q3.

我們對記憶體的需求非常強勁，但 3D 與平面 NAND 的成長存在一些不確定性，這稍微改變了我們的產品組合。正如預期的那樣，IDM 正在經歷強勁的同比增長，在代工廠方面，我們看到對 28 奈米節點的強勁需求，但隨著 20 奈米平面電晶體和 16/14 奈米薄集節點的持續量產，預計出貨量將進行一些調整。這些調整影響了我們對第二季和第三季的營收預測。

Our long-term view on semiconductor demand remains unchanged. Consequently, we expect sales of around EUR3 billion for the next two quarters including EUV. For Q2, we expect total sales to be about EUR1.6 billion with a gross margin around 44% to 45%.

我們對半導體需求的長期看法保持不變。因此，我們預計包括 EUV 在內的未來兩個季度的銷售額將達到 30 億歐元左右。對於第二季度，我們預計總銷售額約為 16 億歐元，毛利率約為 44% 至 45%。

For Q3, we expect sales of about EUR1.4 billion. We expect to recognize one EUV system in Q2 and two EUV systems in Q3. We do not have sufficient visibility and certainty to guide for the full year revenue at this point in time.

對於第三季度，我們預計銷售額約為 14 億歐元。我們預計在第二季將確認一套 EUV 系統，並在第三季確認兩套 EUV 系統。目前，我們還沒有足夠的可見性和確定性來預測全年收入。

As a reminder, as with all new technology introductions, revenue recognition of EUV systems is currently taking place after installation and customer acceptance. This revenue recognition method will continue until predictable installation and customer acceptance timing is established. On tool acceptance and installation, about EUR60 million per system will be recognized with about EUR10 million per system being deferred until each system receives light source upgrades.

提醒一下，與所有新技術的引入一樣，EUV 系統的收入確認目前是在安裝和客戶驗收之後進行的。這種收入確認方法將持續到可預測的安裝和客戶接受時間建立為止。在工具驗收和安裝方面，每個系統將確認約 6,000 萬歐元，其中每個系統約 1,000 萬歐元將推遲到每個系統進行光源升級。

The previously referred to quarters service and field options revenue of EUR367 million is at a level that we expect will be roughly consistent on average throughout the remainder of 2014. R&D expenses for the second quarter will be about EUR270 million. Other income with contributions from participants of the customer co-investment program will be about EUR20 million. SG&A is expected at about EUR85 million in Q2.

先前提到的季度服務和現場選項收入為 3.67 億歐元，我們預計這一水準在 2014 年剩餘時間內將大致維持平均水準。第二季的研發費用約為2.7億歐元。來自客戶共同投資計畫參與者貢獻的其他收入約為 2000 萬歐元。預計第二季銷售、一般及行政費用約 8,500 萬歐元。

With that I would like to turn the call back over to Peter.

說完這些，我想把電話轉回給彼得。

Thank you, Wolfgang. Wolfgang pointed out that we are seeing a shift of shipment focus in the coming quarters. Such shifts are natural and common in our industry and are the results of the specific dynamics in these industry segments. So let's take a brief moment and zoom out to reflect on what we believe are currently the three most significant trends.

謝謝你，沃夫岡。沃夫岡指出，我們將看到未來幾季出貨重點的轉變。這種轉變在我們的產業中是自然且常見的，也是這些產業領域特定動態的結果。因此，讓我們花一點時間來回顧我們認為目前最重要的三個趨勢。

First of all, we've seen the introduction of the 3-D gate architecture in logic, specifically used for the 14 and 16 nanometer thin set devices. As related to logic specifically, it is important to realize that we are seeing the development of four process nodes in four to five years. Started with 28 nanometer, went to 20, 16 to 14, and 10 nanometer nodes, thereby clearly accelerating the shrink roadmap.

首先，我們看到了邏輯中3D閘架構的引入，專門用於14奈米和16奈米薄集設備。具體到邏輯方面，重要的是要認識到我們將在四到五年內看到四個工藝節點的發展。從 28 奈米開始，發展到 20、16、14 和 10 奈米節點，明顯加速了微縮路線圖。

These aggressive shrinks are driven by the mobile device makers that have become early technology adopters in their search for performance improvements for smartphones and tablets. However, many of those architecture transitions have just left the stage of development and are being moved into the stage of early, often risk-based, production.

這些大幅縮減是由行動裝置製造商推動的，這些製造商已成為早期技術採用者，尋求提高智慧型手機和平板電腦的效能。然而，許多架構轉變剛結束開發階段，正進入早期（通常是基於風險）的生產階段。

Device architecture limitations, complexity, and learning curves are challenges that customers need to overcome and it will be a matter of time before they are fully resolved. We are currently in a phase where reassessment of the timing of the production ramps where these most advanced nodes needs to be made against the background of this fastest initial ramp for leading-edge logic production that we have ever seen. In that context it is logical that we are seeing some adjustments of the rollout of the 20, 16, and 14 nanometer capacity ramps.

設備架構的限制、複雜性和學習曲線是客戶需要克服的挑戰，而這些問題的完全解決只是時間問題。我們目前正處於重新評估這些最先進節點的生產爬坡時機的階段，在這一階段的背景下，我們迄今見過的最快前沿邏輯生產初始爬坡速度。在這種背景下，我們看到 20、16 和 14 奈米產能提升的推出進行一些調整是合乎邏輯的。

Secondly, we have witnessed the introduction of the 3-D NAND architecture, which are focused on increasing bit density through vertical transistor stacking as a successor to the current 2-D floating gate architecture. As is the case in logic, these technology transitions are complex and it is, therefore, not surprising that the exact timing of these transitions in terms of capacity buildup cannot be accurately predicted.

其次，我們見證了 3-D NAND 架構的引入，該架構專注於透過垂直電晶體堆疊來提高位元密度，作為目前 2-D 浮柵架構的後繼者。正如邏輯上的情況一樣，這些技術轉變是複雜的，因此，無法準確預測這些轉變在產能建設方面的確切時間也就不足為奇了。

Since the equipment tool set needed for these technologies is somewhat different, we are facing some uncertainties as to the composition of what is needed. However, given that NAND memory demand expectations are still about 40% bit growth to support SSD and smartphone demand, we remain confident that this bit demand will be met by continued node shrinks as well as capacity additions.

由於這些技術所需的設備工具套件略有不同，因此我們對所需的組成面臨一些不確定性。然而，考慮到 NAND 記憶體需求預期仍為 40% 左右的位元成長以支援 SSD 和智慧型手機需求，我們仍然相信，這一需求將透過持續的節點縮小以及容量增加來滿足。

DRAM bit demand is expected to be in the mid-20 range, driven by demand in smartphone and service which apply coming only from technology node transitions. In fact, litho process intensity rises with each node transition and with the move to mobile DRAM as now for the first time a majority of year-end is destined for mobile devices and not for PCs.

預計 DRAM 位元需求將在 20 的中間範圍內，這主要受到智慧型手機和服務需求的推動，而這些需求僅來自技術節點的轉變。事實上，光刻工藝強度隨著每次節點轉換而上升，隨著向行動 DRAM 的轉變，現在第一次大部分年底的時間都用於行動裝置而不是個人電腦。

As the last, but certainly not the least, important point, we want to make clear that we strongly believe that the scaling and related technology challenges as explained in the previous two trends created increasing needs for the next-generation lithography solution in order to continue with our cost-effective scale and that solution is EUV. Although the initial introduction of EUV has been challenging and will require significant development and infrastructure cost, we believe that the advantages of EUV will provide a level of process simplification that is so attractive to our customers that they are focusing on qualifying EUV for their next-generation devices.

最後但同樣重要的一點是，我們要明確表示，我們堅信，正如前兩個趨勢所解釋的那樣，規模縮小和相關技術挑戰對下一代光刻解決方案的需求日益增加，以便繼續保持具有成本效益的規模，而這個解決方案就是 EUV。儘管 EUV 的初步引入充滿挑戰，需要大量的開發和基礎設施成本，但我們相信 EUV 的優勢將提供一定程度的流程簡化，這對我們的客戶非常有吸引力，以至於他們專注於為下一代設備認證 EUV。

As an example for their current 10 nanometer process development purposes, they are asking us to deliver currently 100 wafers per day initially and, as they move towards product qualification, the wafer per day requirement moves towards 500 wafers per day on average. Today we are supplying the wafer per day and the availability required for the current process development phase.

以他們目前的 10 奈米製程開發為例，他們要求我們最初每天交付 100 片晶圓，隨著他們逐步獲得產品認證，每天的晶圓需求將平均增加到 500 片晶圓。今天我們每天供應晶圓，並滿足當前製程開發階段所需的供應量。

It is our belief that with our current continued good progress on EUV we will reach a stage of industrialization whereby our customers can confidently assign their critical layers for their most advanced future nodes to EUV. And we have full confidence that we will reach that stage before our customers put these nodes into volume production.

我們相信，憑藉目前在 EUV 方面持續取得的良好進展，我們將達到工業化階段，屆時我們的客戶可以放心地將他們未來最先進節點的關鍵層分配給 EUV。我們完全有信心在客戶將這些節點投入大量生產之前達到這一階段。

We, therefore, remain fully engaged in EUV insertion planning discussions with our customers and are planning system starts for volume production at our customers within this year. Going forward, with the benefits of EUV clearly understood, insertion decisions across all sectors will be based on the economics of EUV, which will be driven by productivity, stability, cost of ownership improvements, in turn driving layer by layer insertion when these improvements become available.

因此，我們將繼續與客戶充分討論 EUV 插入規劃，並計劃在今年內為客戶啟動量產系統。展望未來，隨著對 EUV 優勢的清晰理解，所有行業的插入決策都將基於 EUV 的經濟性，而 EUV 的經濟性將受到生產力、穩定性、擁有成本改進的驅動，反過來，當這些改進可用時，將推動逐層插入。

So with respect of the key areas of execution of our product strategy, we can report the following. Targeted improvements in all key performance metrics of our immersion platform have been met. They are enabling today's most complex single and multipass patterning with two of our key immersion products.

因此，關於我們產品策略執行的關鍵領域，我們可以報告以下內容。我們的沉浸式平台的所有關鍵效能指標均已達到目標改善。他們利用我們的兩種關鍵浸沒產品實現了當今最複雜的單次和多次圖案化。

First of all, it's the TWINSCAN NXT:1970C, which continues to ramp with 24 systems in our backlog with an average selling price of well over EUR50 million, which underscores the high level of customer acceptance and a rapid adoption over all applications.

首先是 TWINSCAN NXT:1970C，該系統在我們的積壓訂單中繼續增加 24 個系統，平均售價超過 5000 萬歐元，這突顯了客戶的高度接受度和在所有應用中的快速採用。

Secondly, for optimum cost of ownership across our emerging product line, we have brought our NXT:1960B, now called the NXT:1965C, on to this current NXTC common platform. With throughput improvements and upgradability through the NXT:1970 or its successor, we maximize its value of ownership and we help manage the capital efficiency in our customer spend. Furthermore, adoption of our YieldStar metrology systems and our Holistic Lithography suite of products has grown significantly within the logic customer base and is now also expanding to memory manufacturers as well.

其次，為了實現我們新興產品線的最佳擁有成本，我們將 NXT:1960B（現稱為 NXT:1965C）引入到目前的 NXTC 通用平台上。透過 NXT:1970 或其後續產品的吞吐量改進和可升級性，我們最大限度地提高了其所有權價值，並幫助管理客戶支出的資本效率。此外，我們的 YieldStar 計量系統和整體光刻產品套件的採用率在邏輯客戶群中顯著增長，現在也擴展到記憶體製造商。

Coming back to EUV, we shift our fourth NXE:3300B to the fourth customer in Q1 and, as mentioned, our focus at the customer interface is on wafers per day, which is a function of throughput and availability. The target of 100 wafers per day is met at the first customer and is targeted soon at customer number two and two additional systems, number three and four, are now under installation and will start process development also soon.

回到 EUV，我們在第一季將第四台 NXE:3300B 轉移給了第四個客戶，正如所提到的，我們在客戶介面上的重點是每日晶圓產量，這取決於吞吐量和可用性。第一個客戶已經達到了每天 100 片晶圓的目標，第二個客戶也很快達到了這個目標，另外兩個系統，即第三和第四個系統，目前正在安裝中，並且很快也將開始製程開發。

With this we believe that this execution of our product strategy enables us to support any short and long-term lithography need of the industry. And with that -- this, I will be happy to take your questions.

我們相信，透過實施我們的產品策略，我們能夠滿足產業的任何短期和長期光刻需求。有了這些，我很樂意回答你們的問題。

Ladies and gentlemen, the operator will instruct you momentarily on the protocol for the Q&A session but beforehand I would like to ask that you kindly limit yourself to one question with one short follow-up if necessary. This will allow us to get as many callers on as possible.

女士們，先生們，接線員將立即向您介紹問答環節的規程，但在此之前，我希望您只問一個問題，並在必要時進行一次簡短的跟進。這將使我們能夠接聽盡可能多的來電者。

Operator, could you please give us the instructions and then the first question, please?

接線員，您能給我們指示，然後問第一個問題嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Francois Meunier, Morgan Stanley.

（操作員指示）摩根士丹利的 Francois Meunier。

Yes, thanks for taking my question. Peter, I would like to jump on your comments you made earlier about the next-generation shrink roadmap you are seeing at the moment. I would like to reconcile this with maybe the slowing down in the computing cycle at the moment, because like the high end of the smartphone is selling down, in terms of growth same for PCs. We've seen that for a while actually.

是的，感謝您回答我的問題。彼得，我想談談你之前對目前看到的下一代縮小路線圖的評論。我想將此與目前計算週期的放緩相協調，因為高階智慧型手機的銷量正在下降，就成長而言個人電腦也是如此。事實上我們已經看到這種情況有一段時間了。

So is it more like maybe like one of the guys is trying to move to 20 nanometers and then some of the other guys we see that they are (inaudible) with 20, 20 move to 16 and 14 thin set. And basically it's a bit like less investment at the end of the day, because one of them is winner and the others don't spend. And then maybe we see what the winners are going to be.

所以這更像是其中一個人試圖轉向 20 奈米，然後我們看到其他一些人（聽不清楚）從 20、20 轉向 16 和 14 奈米薄集。基本上，這有點像最終的投資減少，因為其中一個是贏家，而其他人沒有花錢。然後我們也許就能知道誰會是贏家。

So maybe overall in terms of super cycle or cycle for spending for logic it's not as good as maybe people would have been anticipating 12 months or 24 months ago.

因此，從邏輯上講，超級週期或支出週期總體而言可能並不像人們 12 個月或 24 個月前預期的那麼好。

Okay, I will ask a couple of questions in one question. So let me try to answer this briefly.

好的，我會在一個問題中問幾個問題。因此，請允許我嘗試簡要地回答這個問題。

I think if the core of your question is that your concerned or asking me the question if we are concerned about the speed of the, let's say, technology roll and the execution of it, whether that is a concern to us, I would say no. When you mentioned the 20, 16, 14 nanometer node, that node we strongly believe still needs about 300,000 wafer starts.

我認為，如果你的問題的核心是你擔心或問我我們是否擔心技術發展的速度和執行速度，這是否是我們關心的問題，我會說不。當您提到 20、16、14 奈米節點時，我們堅信該節點仍然需要大約 300,000 個晶圓。

The first part of that node and, let me say, this 20 nanometer node is a bit of a strange node. It has two phases. It has the first phase which is really the 20 nanometer node phase and then you have the 16, 14 nanometer thin set. Now on the first part, the 20 nanometer, we have installed about 70,000 wafer starts as of now, which by the way happened in about four quarters.

該節點的第一部分，我想說的是，這個 20 奈米節點是一個有點奇怪的節點。它分為兩個階段。它的第一階段實際上是 20 奈米節點階段，然後是 16、14 奈米薄層階段。現在，在第一部分，即 20 奈米方面，截至目前我們已經安裝了大約 70,000 個晶圓，順便說一下，這大約發生在四個季度內。

If you compare that to the 20 nanometer node, that took about seven quarters to get to 70,000, so we are actually looking at the fastest ramp up of a new node we have ever seen. On top of that, people are developing 14 and 16 nanometer thin set solutions. They are doing that at the same time.

如果將其與 20 奈米節點進行比較，則需要大約七個季度才能達到 70,000，因此我們實際上正在看到有史以來最快的新節點提升。除此之外，人們正在開發14奈米和16奈米薄集解決方案。他們同時在做這件事。

What we are, in fact, seeing is that I don't think there's any delay in the shrink roadmaps at all. It's just a matter that people are trying to do it faster and that is driven by performance improvements in the end devices and by cost. So this is what we are seeing today.

事實上，我們看到的是，我認為縮減路線圖根本沒有任何延遲。問題只是人們試圖更快地完成任務，這是由終端設備性能的提高和成本的提高所驅動的。這就是我們今天所看到的。

And when we talk about timing and adjustment of that capacity or ramp I think is logical if you see those being delayed a bit, a few quarters, simply because our customers are trying to do too much at the same time. I don't think it is specific to one customer. I think it is the need of the mobile industry that is driving the need for more advanced logic solutions and our customers are just trying to cope with this and we are dealing with that particular demand.

當我們談論產能或產量提升的時間表和調整時，我認為如果發現這些產能或產量被推遲了幾個季度，這是合乎邏輯的，因為我們的客戶試圖同時做太多事情。我不認為它只針對某一個客戶。我認為行動產業的需求推動了對更先進的邏輯解決方案的需求，我們的客戶正在努力應對這一特殊需求。

So nothing has changed. I think it is a few quarters delay, but actually is pretty good. Technology roadmaps are completely intact and I think it actually helps us, because if we would have executed at the same speed and slope of the 20 nanometer ramp for also the second phase, which is 14 to 16, then we might have a very meager 2015 because everything would've been shipped in one year. Which of course is not possible, but I think it is understandable where we are today.

所以什麼都沒有改變。我認為這是延遲了幾個季度，但實際上相當不錯。技術路線圖完全完好，我認為這實際上對我們有幫助，因為如果我們在第二階段（即 14 到 16 奈米）也以相同的速度和斜率執行 20 奈米坡道，那麼我們在 2015 年可能會表現非常糟糕，因為所有產品都會在一年內出貨。這當然是不可能的，但我認為我們今天的處境是可以理解的。

Okay. So if revenues from the foundries are kind of trending down and the orders as well, it's really something which is really short-term in your view, basically?

好的。因此，如果代工廠的收入呈下降趨勢且訂單也呈下降趨勢，您認為這基本上是短期現象嗎？

Yes, yes. And from a company point of view, we see very strong demand from DRAM, NAND so we actually look at -- when you look at our guidance for the first -- the actuals of Q1 and the guidance for the next two quarters where it's EUR4.5 billion for the first nine months, last year we did EUR5.2 million. If we then say that we shipped four systems in Q4 for EUV, then you can easily imagine that for ASML 2014 will be a very good year.

是的，是的。從公司的角度來看，我們看到 DRAM、NAND 的需求非常強勁，因此我們實際上會看——當你查看我們對第一季度的指導時——第一季的實際情況和接下來兩個季度的指導，前九個月我們的銷售額為 45 億歐元，去年我們的銷售額為 520 萬歐元。如果我們說我們在第四季度交付了四套 EUV 系統，那麼你可以很容易地想像，對於 ASML 來說，2014 年將是非常好的一年。

Okay, very good. Thank you, Peter.

好的，非常好。謝謝你，彼得。

John Pitzer, Credit Suisse.

瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Good afternoon, guys. Thanks for letting me ask the question. I guess, Peter, can you help us understand a little bit when you think about the revenue makeup in the September quarter, more EUV revenue, probably a mix that's moving slightly away from holistic lithography, can you help me understand how we should think about gross margins in that quarter?

大家下午好。感謝您讓我提出這個問題。我想，彼得，您能否幫助我們理解一下，當您考慮 9 月份季度的收入組成時，更多的 EUV 收入，可能是一種略微偏離整體光刻的收入組合，您能否幫助我理解我們應該如何看待該季度的毛利率？

Wolfgang, you want to answer this?

沃夫岡，你想回答這個問題嗎？

I can take this, John. As you know, our EUV systems don't contribute to gross margin at this point and we also now -- our investor day we showed like the last quarters 43.6 where impacted negatively actually by shipping the one system by about 2%. So as you ship more you start off with more pressure on the system.

我可以接受這個，約翰。如您所知，我們的 EUV 系統目前對毛利率沒有貢獻，而且我們現在 - 我們的投資者日顯示，就像上個季度的 43.6 一樣，實際上由於出貨一個系統而產生了約 2% 的負面影響。因此，隨著您運送的貨物越來越多，系統面臨的壓力也會越來越大。

On the other hand side, we have actually Holistic Lithography solutions outgrowing the rest of our revenue categories. And as you know, that is largely software driven, where we are having like 80% gross margins. You have also seen that we have a pretty strong backlog on the 1970C, which jumped up to 24 systems.

另一方面，我們的整體光刻解決方案的收入實際上超過了其他收入類別。如您所知，這主要是由軟體驅動的，我們的毛利率約為 80%。您還看到，我們在 1970C 上有相當多的積壓，數量躍升至 24 個系統。

So it's a bit more uncertainty in the gross margins because the mix changes here can impact the gross margin. That's also, by the way, a reason why we have started to give a range in the gross margin guidance, but we would think that there could be offsets in Q3 to the second system because 1970s and Holistic Lithography is contributing strongly.

因此，毛利率存在更多的不確定性，因為這裡的組合變化會影響毛利率。順便說一句，這也是我們開始在毛利率指引中給出一個範圍的原因，但我們認為第三季可能會對第二個系統產生抵消，因為 1970 年代和整體光刻技術貢獻巨大。

And I would like to add to that, which I also said in my introductory statement that Holistic Lithography we used to position that as a particular solution for logic. But as I said earlier, we are also seeing now this adoption of holistic litho solutions not only logic but also in leading edge memory, especially DRAM.

我想補充一點，我在開場白中也說過，我們曾經將整體光刻技術定位為邏輯的一種特殊解決方案。但正如我之前所說，我們現在也看到這種整體光刻解決方案不僅在邏輯領域而且在前沿記憶體（尤其是 DRAM）中得到採用。

But also if you go to, for instance, floating gate NAND, leading-edge needs absolutely the full suite of Holistic Lithography products. So we see a broad adoption of Holistic Lithography now across all sectors which will also help the gross margin.

但是如果你去研究浮柵 NAND，那麼尖端技術絕對需要全套整體光刻產品。因此，我們看到整體光刻技術現在被各行業廣泛採用，這也有助於提高毛利率。

That's helpful. Then, Peter, relative to some of the uncertainty around 16, 14 at the foundries, what is your expectation now for time to volume ramp of 16 in FinFET? If it's, let's say, fourth quarter of next year, how many quarters ahead of that do you start to get real certainty?

這很有幫助。那麼，Peter，相對於代工廠 16、14 周圍的一些不確定性，您現在對 FinFET 16 的量產時間有何預期？如果是明年第四季度，那麼提前多少季度你才能開始真正確定呢？

So if you think about -- when do you think the volume production at FinFET starts and in what quarter prior to that would you know for certain people's demand desires?

所以，如果您考慮一下——您認為 FinFET 的大量生產何時開始，以及在此之前的哪個季度您會知道某些人的需求願望？

We have to look at our production and installation cycle time that is driving this because we, of course, do not have detailed insight into what our customers are doing in their development. So if we take about eight to 12 weeks of installation time max before a tool that lands will be put into production, let's say, one quarter, we have six months of production cycle time, so we need about a nine-month warning. If they start ramping up, we need to start building the machine about nine months earlier.

我們必須專注於推動這項進程的生產和安裝週期時間，因為我們當然不了解客戶在開發過程中所做的事情。因此，如果我們最多需要大約 8 到 12 週的安裝時間，然後才能將工具投入生產，比如說，一個季度，我們有六個月的生產週期時間，所以我們需要大約九個月的警告。如果他們開始加大生產，我們需要提前大約九個月開始製造機器。

So, Peter, if the expectation is second half of next year for volume ramp, you should start to see certainty sometime late Q3/Q4 of this year. Is that how I should think about it?

因此，彼得，如果預計產量將在明年下半年增加，那麼您應該會在今年第三季末或第四季的某個時候開始看到確定性。我該這樣想嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Perfect, thank you.

非常好，謝謝。

If your assumption is indeed, let's say, middle of next year or third quarter of next year then you need to adjust that with about nine months earlier.

如果你的假設確實是明年年中或明年第三季度，那麼你需要將其調整為提前約九個月。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Sandeep Deshpande, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Sandeep Deshpande。

Thanks for the question. Peter, maybe -- you did talk about this in the introduction but maybe you can help us understand; you've talked about this 500 wafers per day on EUV by the end of the year. At what stage do you think that the customers get confident enough to say, well, the tool is now stable enough for us to place orders with ASML for 2016? And I have one follow-up.

謝謝你的提問。彼得，也許——你確實在介紹中談到了這一點，但也許你可以幫助我們理解；您曾談到，到今年年底，每天將使用 EUV 生產 500 片晶圓。您認為在什麼階段客戶會有足夠的信心說，現在該工具已經足夠穩定，我們可以向 ASML 下 2016 年的訂單了？我還有一個後續問題。

I think, when you look at where we are today, we initially provide a capability of about 100 wafers per day with addition availability and addition availability is about over 50%. That's what we are doing today, but as I said earlier, at around 100 wafers per day.

我認為，當您看到我們目前的狀況時，我們最初提供每天約 100 片晶圓的生產能力，並且附加可用性約為 50% 以上。這就是我們今天所做的，但正如我之前所說，每天大約生產 100 片晶圓。

This is -- this 100 wafers per day is the result of the first upgrade cycle. To get to 500 wafers per day we need several upgrade cycles which are planned throughout the year. I think that will determine -- I don't think we will need to show over a lengthy period of time 500 wafers per day.

這是－每天 100 片晶圓是第一個升級週期的成果。為了達到每天 500 片晶圓的產量，我們需要全年規劃的幾個升級週期。我認為這將決定——我認為我們不需要在很長一段時間內每天展示 500 片晶圓。

It is the result after every upgrade cycle that is going to increase the confidence of our customers. For instance, the upgrade cycle that we did just after SPIE for the tools in the field actually gave us the projected results. So if we can keep executing on what we are doing today, that means that after every upgrade cycle throughout this year the confidence level of customers will go up. And that means that we are currently planning to be at that 500 wafers per day around the end of the year, beginning of next year.

每次升級週期後的結果都會增加客戶的信心。例如，我們在 SPIE 之後對現場工具進行的升級週期實際上給了我們預期的結果。因此，如果我們能夠繼續執行我們今天所做的事情，這意味著在今年的每次升級週期之後，客戶的信心水平都會上升。這意味著我們目前計劃在今年年底或明年年初達到每天 500 片晶圓的產量。

But I would think -- that is my personal expectation that we should have that confidence level higher before we reach that point. So somewhere this year I think customers and the ASML need to sit around the table to talk about the follow-up of the industrialization of EUV.

但我認為——這是我個人的期望，我們在達到這一點之前應該有更高的信心水平。所以我認為今年某個時候客戶和ASML需要坐下來討論EUV產業化的後續事宜。

Thanks, Peter. Secondly, if I ask a more macro question, if you look at what the market is looking for in terms of semiconductor CapEx this year that they should -- semiconductor CapEx should grow this year overall driven to some extent by memory CapEx. But your first-quarter orders are showing a different trend in terms of memory CapEx as well. So do you think that your own orders will catch up with what market trends expect for 2014 in terms of memory CapEx, or do you think that the market is wrong at this point on memory CapEx?

謝謝，彼得。其次，如果我問一個更宏觀的問題，如果你看看今年市場對半導體資本支出的期望，那麼他們應該——半導體資本支出今年總體上應該會增長，這在一定程度上受到內存資本支出的推動。但您的第一季訂單在記憶體資本支出方面也呈現不同的趨勢。那麼，您是否認為您自己的訂單將趕上 2014 年內存資本支出方面的市場趨勢預期，或者您是否認為市場目前在內存資本支出方面是錯誤的？

You want to talk about the CapEx, Wolfgang?

你想談談資本支出嗎，沃夫岡？

Yes, I will talk in general about corporate growth. The overall market CapEx is flat. Peter already talked in one answer, to the first question I believe.

是的，我會概括地談論企業成長。整體市場資本支出持平。我相信，對於第一個問題，彼得已經給了答案。

We are having strong year. We are guiding to EUR4.4 billion for the first nine months and then, depending on how the fourth quarter looks like, we have a significantly stronger yield than the EUR5.2 billion. So in general our revenue is up significantly and the industry's CapEx is flat that we would be kind of independent of that.

今年我們過得很充實。我們預計前九個月的收益將達到 44 億歐元，然後，根據第四季的情況，我們的收益將遠高於 52 億歐元。因此，總體而言，我們的收入大幅增加，而產業的資本支出持平，因此我們不會對此產生太大影響。

On the backlog question, yes, the backlog is always dependent on what projects are going on and which customers are blazing it. In general, our backlog is pretty much flat quarter over quarter at about EUR2 billion.

關於積壓問題，是的，積壓總是取決於正在進行的專案以及哪些客戶正在努力。總體而言，我們的積壓訂單量與上一季基本持平，約 20 億歐元。

It's a very good quality of backlog. It was very, very focused on memory as we ended the quarter. You have indeed seen in our revenues it was about two-thirds of the systems revenue was memory and you see that balancing out a bit more now. The backlog that we have now is actually almost equally split between the three major segments.

這是品質非常好的積壓工作。截至本季末，我們非常注重記憶。您確實已經看到，在我們的收入中，大約三分之二的系統收入來自內存，而現在您會發現這一比例更加平衡了。我們目前的積壓訂單實際上幾乎平均分配給了三個主要部分。

As you know, we talk about that a lot, that the orders in the order backlog when you look at who do we ship to and what projects do we ship to, those are projects where we are very well positioned, so customers actually indicate to us much more when they need the machine. So our shipment planning with our customers is, in that sense, more important than the orders.

如您所知，我們經常談論這一點，當您查看訂單積壓中的訂單時，我們會查看我們向誰發貨以及我們向哪些項目發貨，這些都是我們定位非常良好的項目，因此客戶實際上會在需要機器時向我們表明更多信息。因此，從這個意義上來說，我們與客戶制定的出貨計畫比訂單更為重要。

Once we know that we are designed into that particular project, that new fab, then we know we will get the orders. And then it just depends. Like Wolfgang pointed out on the timing of that one or two, three customers putting the orders in for that one particular project, it doesn't say anything about their, let's say, desire to receive those tools.

一旦我們知道我們被設計到那個特定的項目、那個新工廠，我們就知道我們會得到訂單。然後就看情況了。就像沃夫岡指出的，有一兩個或三個客戶為某個特定項目下訂單的時間，並沒有說明他們是否希望收到這些工具。

You could say that the orders, we said this I think before on earlier calls, is the end of an administrative process. It is not so much an indication of the willingness of a customer to put capital forward to make sure that it can fuel the next generation of device shrinks, because that's what they are doing.

您可以說，這些命令（我想我們在之前的電話中已經說過）是行政程序的結束。這並不完全表明客戶願意投入資金來確保能夠推動下一代設備微縮，因為這就是他們正在做的事情。

When you talk about DRAM there is no new capacity being built. The 25% bit growth is simply technology transitions that will happen. NAND has the same thing.

當你談論 DRAM 時，並沒有新的產能正在建造。25% 的成長只是即將發生的技術轉變。NAND 也有同樣的事情。

We have a few big NAND projects, one particular one that is taking new machines. They need to support 40% bit growth, which will be about 100,000 wafer starts; that needs to happen. So the order patterns could be disconnected from what we call the shipment planning and the shipment patterns.

我們有幾個大型的 NAND 項目，其中一個特別需要新機器。他們需要支援40%的位元增長，這將需要大約100,000個晶圓的啟動；這必須發生。因此訂單模式可能與我們所謂的出貨計畫和出貨模式脫節。

Understood. Thank you, Peter.

明白了。謝謝你，彼得。

Stephane Houri, Natixis.

法國外貿銀行的 Stephane Houri。

Yes, good afternoon. I have a question about the visibility and the way we should think about Q4. According to you, what are the main moving parts we should have in mind on the upside but also on the downside?

是的，下午好。我有一個關於可見性以及我們應該如何看待第四季度的問題。您認為，我們在有利方面和不利方面應該關注的主要動因是什麼？

On the upside, I would say -- like I said as an answer to an earlier question, we have not detailed the monthly or weekly insight into development process and the development progress that certain of our customers have. And especially when you talk about leading-edge logic.

從好的方面來說，我想說——就像我在回答之前的問題時所說的那樣，我們還沒有詳細說明某些客戶每月或每週的開發過程和開發進度。尤其是當你談論前沿邏輯時。

Now if they have some breakthroughs they will pull things in because they know on an earlier question, I think it was John, saying what's the time that they need. They need about nine months to -- six months of our production time and then about one quarter of installation and ramp up time. So if they have breakthroughs they will come earlier, that is upside.

現在，如果他們取得了一些突破，他們就會把事情拉進來，因為他們知道之前的一個問題，我想是約翰，說他們需要什麼時間。他們需要大約九個月到六個月的生產時間，然後大約四分之一的安裝和啟動時間。因此，如果他們取得突破，他們就會更早取得進展，這是有利的。

Like I said earlier, we need 300,000 wafer starts for this node, which is the -- it's a two-phase node, the 20 nanometer and then the 14, 16 nanometer thin set. So that 300,000 will happen. It's just a matter of when and that's why I said the delays that we are seeing are for only two quarters. So that is upside.

就像我之前說的，我們需要 30 萬個晶圓用於這個節點，這是一個雙相節點，20 奈米，然後是 14、16 奈米薄層。這樣 30 萬就會實現。這只是時間問題，這就是為什麼我說我們看到的延遲只持續了兩個季度。所以這是有好處的。

Downside, well, I need to think a bit harder. The logic we have basically scrubbed you could say. DRAM is obvious. DRAM market is healthy. There's no overcapacity there, there's no square meters being added. There is a lot of technology.

缺點是，嗯，我需要再認真思考。可以說，我們基本上已經清除了邏輯。DRAM 很明顯。DRAM市場健康。那裡不存在產能過剩，也沒有新增平方公尺。有很多技術。

We have the NAND situation, the 3-D NAND, which by the way could be upside. There is no downside because if 3-D NAND is introduced a bit later then the 40% bit growth needs to be fueled by capacity additions and will be planar. Planar also uses leading-edge immersion tools but they are much more loaded with the Holistic Lithography options so the average selling price would be a lot higher.

我們有 NAND 的情況，即 3-D NAND，順便說一下，這可能會帶來好處。沒有任何不利之處，因為如果 3-D NAND 稍後推出，那麼 40% 的位元成長需要透過增加容量來推動，並且將是平面的。Planar 也使用尖端浸沒式工具，但它們配備了更多的整體光刻選項，因此平均售價會高得多。

So I think that's basically how we look at it. I think we've scrubbed in our internal analysis the logic segment for the, as I say, later ramp up of the 14 and 16 nanometer node. And the others I don't see a lot of downside and that's why Wolfgang said 2014 looks like a very solid year.

所以我認為這基本上就是我們看待這個問題的方式。我認為，我們已經在內部分析中清除了邏輯部分，以便稍後提升 14 和 16 奈米節點。至於其他方面，我看不出有什麼太大的不利因素，這就是為什麼沃夫岡說 2014 年看起來是非常穩健的一年。

Right, right and just a follow-up on the Holistic Lithography. You've been talking about Holistic Lithography being adopted also by memory manufacturers. When you've been talking about this EUR1 billion sales target, did it include this or is it in upside looking three years ahead?

對，對，這只是對整體光刻技術的後續關注。您一直在談論整體光刻技術也被記憶體製造商所採用。當您談到這個 10 億歐元的銷售目標時，它是否包括這一點，還是說這是未來三年的上行趨勢？

No, it did include that because when you go to the next-generation memory devices, whether it's the next-generation DRAM devices or even when you go another node, planar node in NAND, that is challenging from a production point of view. And there you need the Holistic Lithography solutions so that is included.

不，它確實包括了這一點，因為當你轉向下一代儲存設備時，無論是下一代 DRAM 設備，還是當你轉向另一個節點，NAND 中的平面節點，從生產的角度來看這都是具有挑戰性的。您需要整體光刻解決方案，因此它被包括在內。

All right, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Andrew Gardiner, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的安德魯·加德納。

Good afternoon. Thank you very much. Just another one around EUV. I was just wondering whether there has been a change in tone from your customers around EUV development process over the last quarter or so.

午安.非常感謝。這只是 EUV 相關的另一個例子。我只是想知道在過去一個季度左右，您的客戶對 EUV 開發流程的態度是否改變了。

Peter, you've highlighted the accelerating shrink and the pressure on the industry and some of the difficulties that some of them are having. But is that causing a change in tone from them where, say, before they may have said, well, we think we can do a bit more with multipass patterning? Now are they acknowledging that EUV is perhaps even more critical than they had previously thought?

彼得，你強調了產業萎縮的加速和壓力，以及一些產業面臨的一些困難。但這是否會導致他們語氣的改變，比如說，之前他們可能會說，好吧，我們認為我們可以利用多通道圖案化做更多的事情？現在他們是否承認 EUV 可能比他們之前想像的更為重要？

How would you, therefore, characterize the timing of any decision on that part? What is their -- the current level of flexibility they've got in terms of the timing for insertion at 10 nanometer? With the dual development track it keeps slipping out a little bit or they are getting themselves more flexibility to get there? What is the latest on that front? Thank you.

那麼，您如何描述做出該部分決定的時機？就 10 奈米插入時間而言，他們目前的靈活性水平如何？隨著雙重發展軌道的出現，它是否一直在下滑，或者他們是否正在為自己獲得更多的靈活性來實現這一目標？這方面的最新進展是什麼？謝謝。

I think it is the latter what you said. I think they are creating more flexibility for themselves to do EUV introduction. And that will be driven by, let's say, a certain level of wafer per day productivity, which is driven by power and availability of [an order too]. That will be the point where -- that will be the main focus.

我認為你說的是後者。我認為他們正在為自己創造更多的靈活性來引入 EUV。這將取決於一定程度的晶圓/日生產率，而這又取決於功率和訂單的可用性。這將是重點所在。

But you are correct; I think if you -- which, by the way, the issue that we are currently seeing with our potential delays I would say in shipment pattern for leading edge logic is driven by the fact that -- I need to remind you all that by the fact that this roadmap capacity ramp was the most aggressive that we have ever seen. So we are seeing just an adjustment of the timing of this ramp, which brings it back to, I would say, more normal patterns. This is the main reason why we have to adjust let's say the initial planning that we have.

但你是對的；我認為，如果您 - 順便說一句，我們目前看到的潛在延遲問題，我想說，前沿邏輯的出貨模式是由以下事實驅動的 - 我需要提醒大家，這個路線圖容量提升是我們所見過的最激進的。因此，我們看到的只是這個斜坡時間的調整，我想說，這會使其恢復到更正常的模式。這就是我們必須調整初步計劃的主要原因。

But on EUV, you are absolutely correct. What we notice and what we hear from all the customers is that the challenges with multipass patterning are indeed very, very high and that one of the main reasons why we want to introduce EUV is not so much because of cost. The cost impact will be limited.

但關於 EUV，您是完全正確的。我們注意到並且從所有客戶那裡聽到的是，多通道圖案化的挑戰確實非常非常高，而我們想要引入 EUV 的主要原因之一併不是因為成本。成本影響將是有限的。

We talked in logic, for instance, about a few layers, one or two layers, but it is more about the process simplification. It makes the process more simple and that's the main focus that our customers are currently having. And that, of course, helps.

例如，我們在邏輯上討論了幾層、一層或兩層，但更多的是關於流程簡化。它使流程更加簡單，這也是我們的客戶目前關注的重點。這當然有幫助。

So when we reach those, let's say, 500 wafer per day targets, and we are getting close to it, then I'm pretty convinced that those customers will make those choices because the benefits are clear.

因此，當我們達到每天 500 片晶圓的目標，並且已經接近這個目標時，我非常確信那些客戶會做出這樣的選擇，因為這樣做的好處是顯而易見的。

Understood. And just a very quick follow-up if I may. You have shifted the focus of the EUV metrics from power and wafers per hour to wafers per day over the last quarter or so.

明白了。如果可以的話，我只想做一個非常快速的跟進。在過去一個季度左右，您已將 EUV 指標的重點從功率和每小時晶圓數量轉移到每天晶圓數量。

The prior targets that you had set, say, 70 wafers per hour during the back half of this year, 125 wafers per hour next year in terms of the peak throughput, are those still sort of contact and analogous to the wafer per day targets that you are now referring to or have things changed?

您之前設定的目標，例如今年下半年每小時 70 片晶圓，明年的峰值吞吐量為每小時 125 片晶圓，這些目標是否仍然與您現在提到的每天晶圓的目標有聯繫且類似，還是情況已經發生了變化？

No, they have not changed. The 70 wafers per day; we need to show the capability of 70 wafers -- I'm sorry, 70 wafers per hour by the end of the year and our capability to do 125 wafers per hour in 2015. That is because customers for the initial start of their risk production don't need that, but they would really like to see that that capability is ultimately there. So that has not changed.

不，他們沒有改變。每天70片晶圓；我們需要展示到今年年底每小時生產 70 片晶圓的能力——抱歉，是 70 片晶圓，到 2015 年，我們每小時生產 125 片晶圓的能力。這是因為客戶在風險生產初期並不需要這樣做，但他們確實希望看到最終能夠實現這種能力。所以這並沒有改變。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Kai Korschelt, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的凱·科舍爾特（Kai Korschelt）。

Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. I have two.

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。我有兩個。

The first one was maybe just simplify the sort of pushouts on 16, 14 nanometers compared maybe to the overly aggressive roadmaps. Could this potentially mean that also the 10 nanometer rollout may be somewhat later or would ramp somewhat later, which would in turn then give you more time to execute on the EUV roadmap, at least compared to maybe what you thought six months ago? That's my first question. Then I have a follow-up, please. Thank you.

第一個可能只是簡化了 16、14 奈米的推出方式，與過於激進的路線圖相比。這是否意味著 10 奈米的推出可能會稍晚一些，或者會稍晚一些推出，這反過來會給你更多的時間來執行 EUV 路線圖，至少與你六個月前的想法相比是這樣？這是我的第一個問題。那我有一個後續問題，請回答。謝謝。

I don't think there's going to be any delay. It's not a follow-up. I think what we are currently seeing is that the 16 -- sorry, 10 nanometer is needed in the course of 2016 and 2017, so we are still more than two years we have left for the 14 and 16 nanometer rollout, which I think is a sufficient time and, as a matter of fact, looks like the normal Moore's Law heartbeat. So I don't think that has any impact.

我認為不會有任何延遲。這不是後續行動。我認為我們目前看到的是，16 奈米——抱歉，10 奈米需要在 2016 年和 2017 年期間實現，因此我們仍然有兩年多的時間來推出 14 奈米和 16 奈米，我認為這是一個足夠的時間，事實上，這看起來像是正常的摩爾定律心跳。所以我認為這不會產生任何影響。

But what we are seeing has the intensity with which customers do R&D of 10 nanometers, that is going up and that's why there is so much interest for EUV. I don't think it has a major impact on the timing of the introductions.

但我們看到客戶對 10 奈米研發的強度正在上升，這就是人們對 EUV 如此感興趣的原因。我認為這不會對介紹的時間產生重大影響。

Okay, thanks. Then maybe a brief follow-up on NAND. So I think you would previously said 3-D versus 2-D, that debate doesn't really impact the lithography content per wafer. But I think you earlier said you're now getting a bit more comfortable with sort of two different scenarios.

好的，謝謝。然後也許會對 NAND 進行簡要的跟進。所以我認為您之前說過 3-D 與 2-D 的爭論實際上並不影響每片晶圓的光刻內容。但我認為您之前說過，您現在對兩種不同的情況更加適應了。

I'm just wondering which -- if you could maybe be a bit more specific what you think now if you include the higher software and holistic litho content of one versus the other, what do you think roughly is the litho value in total terms difference between 3-D and 2-D? Thank you.

我只是想知道——如果您可以更具體地說一下，如果將兩者的高級軟體和整體光刻內容結合起來，您認為 3-D 和 2-D 之間的光刻價值總體差異大致是多少？謝謝。

I think that the litho difference is a bit difficult to quantify for the following reasons. When you say we do at 3-D you could probably go for the NXT:1965, which is, let's say, a sort of lower-priced tool, which is more cost effective but it has a lower throughput.

我認為光刻差異有點難以量化，原因如下。當您說我們在 3-D 上做的時候，您可能會選擇 NXT:1965，這是一種價格較低的工具，它更具成本效益，但吞吐量較低。

So when you say you go to 2-D you need the 1970C with all the holistic litho options on there, but it has a higher throughput so you need fewer of them. I would think, it's a gut feel, that it doesn't make a huge difference, but it is important because it means that the composition of what we need to deliver is, of course, different. It also means from a production planning point of view, it's a bit different.

因此，當您說要轉向 2-D 時，您需要配備所有整體光刻選項的 1970C，但它具有更高的吞吐量，因此您需要的選項更少。我認為，這是一種直覺，它不會帶來巨大的差異，但它很重要，因為這意味著我們需要交付的內容的組成當然是不同的。這也意味著從生產計劃的角度來看，情況有點不同。

From an ASP point of view, it is also different. 2-D requires higher ASP tools, but also less because the 1970C is a higher product -- it's a higher productivity tool. It's about 10% to 15% more productive and that gives you an indication of the number of tools. Given the fact that the wafers out requirement is probably the same, that the number of tools on 2-D might be less than on 3-D.

從 ASP 的角度來看，它也有所不同。2-D 需要更高的 ASP 工具，但也需要更低的 ASP，因為 1970C 是更高級的產品——它是一種生產率更高的工具。它的生產力提高了約 10% 到 15%，這可以讓您了解工具的數量。鑑於晶圓產量要求可能相同，2-D 上的工具數量可能少於 3-D 上的工具數量。

Would you see some sort of ramp up problems or issues with 3-D or qualifications then that would be good for you?

您是否會看到與 3-D 或資格相關的某些問題或麻煩，這對您來說是好事嗎？

It would be good for average selling prices. You would probably sell fewer tools, so I think from a litho point of view I don't think it makes a huge difference from a sales point of view. But from a margin point of view, clearly.

這對於平均售價來說會是好事。您可能會銷售更少的工具，因此我認為從平版印刷的角度來看，從銷售的角度來看，這不會帶來巨大的差異。但從利潤率的角度來看，顯然如此。

Okay, thank you very much.

好的，非常感謝。

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

邁赫迪·胡賽尼（Mehdi Hosseini），SIG。

Yes, thanks for taking my question. Can you help us understand how the economics like wafer -- ASP per wafer for your customers' customer are changing as we go into 20, 16, and 14? And how those changes in economics are compared to previous nodes, like when we transition from 45 to 35?

是的，感謝您回答我的問題。您能否幫助我們了解，當我們進入 20、16 和 14 片晶圓時，您的客戶的客戶每片晶圓的平均售價等經濟狀況是如何變化的？與先前的節點相比，這些經濟變化有何不同，例如從 45 歲過渡到 35 歲？

The reason I am asking is, given the fact that there is more multi-patterning at and below 20, I'm just wondering if those additional cars are also having an adverse impact. And I do have a follow-up question.

我之所以問這個問題是因為考慮到 20 及以下的多重模式較多，我只是想知道這些額外的汽車是否也會產生不利影響。我還有一個後續問題。

I think it's a very good question, Mehdi. I think in general the economics are not favorable for our customers when we go to 20 or 16 and 14. I think the cost per wafer from a lithography point of view will go up. There is no discussion there. And in a sense you could say that is a bit different from the previous nodes where we were still able to follow, let's say, the cost per wafer reduction roadmap that they had.

我認為這是一個非常好的問題，Mehdi。我認為，總體而言，當我們達到 20 或 16 和 14 時，對我們的客戶來說經濟效益並不有利。我認為從光刻的角度來看每片晶圓的成本將會上升。那裡沒有討論。從某種意義上說，你可以說這與以前的節點有點不同，在以前的節點上我們仍然能夠遵循他們制定的每片晶圓成本降低路線圖。

Now you need to realize that I would say the 20, 16, 14 nanometer node is kind of a bridge node from a lithography point of view. We are about two years late with EUV, so clearly there's these wafer -- the cost per wafer economics are being impacted by the fact that we have to do so much past patterning. Not only I think from a CapEx point of view, but probably also from the yield point of view, and that's why the focus of customers is on the introduction of EUV in any case at 10.

現在你需要意識到，從光刻的角度來看，20、16、14奈米節點是一種橋樑節點。我們的 EUV 技術晚了大約兩年，因此顯然這些晶圓——每個晶圓的經濟成本受到了我們必須進行大量圖案化處理這一事實的影響。我不僅從資本支出的角度來思考，而且可能從產量的角度來思考，這就是為什麼客戶的重點無論如何都放在 10 點引入 EUV 上。

And that is the game changer again, or you could say that's the change to bring us back on the cost per function or cost per wafer roadmap as we originally planned. Of course, we are trying to help the customers with this economic issue on the cost per wafer by increasing the throughput, the NXT:1970C has a record throughput with the capability to give our customers maximum, let's say, control over their process, the Holistic Lithography product portfolio. So yield management plus productivity is something that we have added to our product portfolio to compensate for what is obvious an increase in the cost per wafer, which can only come down after we have introduced EUV.

這又是一個改變遊戲規則的因素，或者你可以說這是一個讓我們回到最初計劃的每個功能成本或每個晶圓成本路線圖的變化。當然，我們正試圖透過提高吞吐量來幫助客戶解決每片晶圓成本的經濟問題，NXT:1970C 擁有創紀錄的吞吐量，能夠讓我們的客戶最大限度地控制他們的工藝，即整體光刻產品組合。因此，我們在產品組合中增加了產量管理和生產力，以彌補每片晶圓成本的顯著增加，而只有在引入 EUV 之後，成本才會下降。

Got it. And then the follow-up has to do with the EUV. Given your target of 500 wafers per day by 2016, how does that change or can you provide us an update on the total number of EUV that you will be able to ship in 2016 and 2017?

知道了。後續工作與 EUV 有關。鑑於你們在 2016 年設定的目標是每天生產 500 片晶圓，那麼這個目標會如何改變？或者，您能否提供我們 2016 年和 2017 年能夠出貨的 EUV 總數的最新情況？

Yes, we have said that based on these targets that we talked about, we still believe that the capacity that we need to put in place in 2015 is about 12 to 15 units, which with the further successful rollout of EUV will have to double in 2016 and double again in 2017. So that statement is still valid. We said that before, that is not going to change.

是的，我們說過，基於我們談到的這些目標，我們仍然認為，2015 年我們需要投入的產能約為 12 到 15 個單位，隨著 EUV 的進一步成功推出，這個數字在 2016 年必須翻一番，在 2017 年再翻一番。因此該聲明仍然有效。我們之前就說過，這不會改變。

Got it. Thanks so much.

知道了。非常感謝。

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

提摩西·阿庫裡，考恩公司。

Thanks. Peter, I had a question on the 3350. You are building some 3350s and I think the idea was that you might be able ship a few of them this year, and now it sounds like you've achieved some of the milestones for at least development work. So can we expect to see follow-on orders and shipments for the 3350 before the end of the year? I would think that we would see follow-on orders based upon what you previously said for some 3350s before year-end.

謝謝。彼得，我對 3350 有一個疑問。您正在製造一些 3350，我認為您今年可能就能交付其中幾台，現在聽起來您至少在開發工作上已經取得了一些里程碑。那麼我們是否可以期待在今年年底之前看到 3350 的後續訂單和發貨？根據您之前所說的，我認為我們會在年底前看到一些 3350 的後續訂單。

That's clearly our target, Tim. We do not start the production of these systems if we do not think there is a, I would say, home for those systems. And if there's a home for those systems we need orders, so I think it's a fair assumption.

這顯然是我們的目標，提姆。如果我們認為這些系統沒有合適的市場，我們就不會開始生產這些系統。如果這些系統有歸屬，我們就需要訂單，所以我認為這是一個合理的假設。

Okay, great. Can you talk a little bit about Holistic Litho? The attach rate looks very high. I think you have previously said that you are going to do like EUR500 million to EUR600 million this year in Holistic Litho. Is this still the case and how much of that is actual hardware versus software?

好的，太好了。您能簡單談談 Holistic Litho 嗎？附加率看起來很高。我想您之前曾說過，今年您將在 Holistic Litho 投資 5 億至 6 億歐元。情況仍然如此嗎？其中有多少是實際的硬件，有多少是軟體？

I ask that because that's the piece that ultimately gets taken out of the pocket of other companies selling hardware as well. Thanks.

我之所以問這個問題，是因為這部分收入最終也是從其他銷售硬體的公司口袋裡掏出來的。謝謝。

This is Wolfgang. Yes, the ramp there is completely intact. We did just under EUR500 million last year and we are going to get over EUR1 billion by 2017.

這是沃夫岡。是的，那裡的坡道完好無損。去年我們的營收接近 5 億歐元，到 2017 年我們將達到 10 億歐元以上。

This here is going to be greater than last year and I would think that it's probably 75% software content, 80% software content, and the rest is hardware content, which comes from the YieldStar metrology tool that is included there. And the blended gross margin is very, very healthy at about 80% for that business.

今年的內容將比去年更多，我認為大概是 75% 的軟體內容，80% 的軟體內容，其餘的是硬體內容，這些內容來自其中包含的 YieldStar 計量工具。該業務的混合毛利率非常健康，約 80%。

Which is normal for software.

這對於軟體來說很正常。

Yes, software is higher and then the yields are a little bit lower but blended 80%.

是的，軟體更高，然後收益率稍微低一點，但混合了 80%。

Blended 80%, okay. Thanks very much.

混合了80%，好的。非常感謝。

Gareth Jenkins, UBS.

瑞銀的加雷斯‧詹金斯。

Thanks very much. It's a follow-up on an earlier question. I just wondered whether you could talk about the number of exposures if you were to do 10 nanometers in the option where you don't use EUV. Would it be -- how many were sort of multiples of exposure that you have to do with immersion? And then I have a follow-up just on EUV, so I will [come back for that one].

非常感謝。這是對先前問題的後續回答。我只是想知道，如果您不使用 EUV 進行 10 奈米加工，您是否可以談談曝光次數。會不會是－與沉浸有關的曝光倍數是多少？然後我會跟進 EUV 的問題，所以我會[回來討論這個問題]。

I think the number of exposures, it depends a bit on the architectures of our customers, but in general you could say that in a critical layer on 10 nanometers that -- there is normally a 2-D layer. That has to turn into a 3-D layer, which means one, let's say, EUV layer would then be replaced by two or three immersion layers.

我認為曝光次數有點取決於我們客戶的架構，但一般來說，你可以說在 10 奈米的關鍵層中 - 通常有一個 2-D 層。它必須變成一個 3-D 層，這意味著一個 EUV 層將被兩個或三個浸沒層取代。

And with every layer needs multi-passes, so it could vary from 7 to 9 immersion passes for that one layer, which then, of course, if you have a full -- now you can do two things. If you have this multipass 3-D immersion design for a critical layer which would -- like I said, 7 to 9 passes. If you would replace that with EUV, then you could and you would not change your architecture, just use the 3-D architecture, but you then just replace multiple immersion passes with one EUV pass, you can bring it down to two or three EUV passes. That's one solution.

並且每一層都需要多次浸沒，因此對於該層來說，可能需要 7 到 9 次浸沒，當然，如果您有完整的 - 現在您可以做兩件事。如果您對關鍵層有此多通道 3-D 浸入式設計，那麼 — — 就像我說的，需要 7 到 9 次。如果您將其替換為 EUV，那麼您可以並且不會改變您的架構，只需使用 3-D 架構，但您只需用一次 EUV 通道替換多次浸沒式通道，就可以將其減少到兩次或三次 EUV 通道。這是一個解決方案。

You could also say now I'm going to have a different design which actually takes benefit of the full EUV capability, which actually brings the exposure down to one pass, which is the only EUV pass. So you can see how the economics then quickly turn in favor of EUV, but clearly that's why customers are very interested in us showing the capability of 70 and 125 wafers per hour. Once you are at that productivity level, then clearly the economics of EUV kick in. And it also gives them a lot of simplicity back, because as you can imagine, a 3-D multipass immersion layer is highly complex.

您還可以說，現在我將採用不同的設計，該設計實際上可以利用完整的 EUV 功能，實際上將曝光減少到一次通過，這是唯一的 EUV 通過。因此，您可以看到經濟效益如何迅速轉向有利於 EUV，但顯然這就是為什麼客戶對我們展示每小時 70 和 125 個晶圓的能力非常感興趣。一旦達到該生產力水平，EUV 的經濟效益就會明顯顯現。而且它也為它們帶來了很多簡單性，因為你可以想像，3-D 多通道浸沒層非常複雜。

I just want to thank you for that, Peter. Just wondered whether we could talk about the EUV development that you have worked on through the course of this year. Can you give us an update on where we are out the talent pool for example and some of the things that you are working on in the industrialization process that we can measure you by?

我只是想為此感謝你，彼得。只是想知道我們是否可以談談您今年以來所從事的 EUV 開發工作。您能否向我們介紹我們的人才庫的最新情況，以及您在工業化過程中所做的一些工作，以便我們衡量您？

I think we have -- what we have done last year is to improve the source development whereby we show the capability of 70 watts, which was actually attached to a 3100 which was a 3100 source, which basically we then copied the architecture onto the 3300 source which also had a different architecture called mobile [pre-pass]. So we have mobile pre-pass now on the 3300 which are the tools that are being shipped to the customer, connected to the scanner whereby we have done the first round of upgrades, bringing us the level of power and availability that at least gives our customers the requirements for the current R&D development.

我認為我們已經——我們去年所做的是改進光源開發，展示了 70 瓦的功率，它實際上連接到 3100，即 3100 光源，然後我們基本上將架構複製到 3300 光源上，它也有一個稱為移動 [預傳遞] 的不同架構。因此，我們現在對 3300 進行了行動預檢，這些工具正在發送給客戶，並連接到掃描儀，從而我們完成了第一輪升級，為我們帶來了至少可以滿足客戶當前研發發展要求的功率和可用性水平。

So in summary, bringing the new mobile pre-pass architecture live on the 3300 source connected to the 3300 scanner, which is going to be the scanner being used by our customers for the initial risk production on 10 nanometer. That is what we've achieved for the first three to four months of this year and that is actually running now, I would say, well at the customer side where our customers are now asking us to make sure that we can execute as well on the next couple of upgrades as we did on the first one.

總而言之，將新的行動預通過架構在連接到 3300 掃描儀的 3300 源上投入使用，這將是我們的客戶用於 10 奈米初始風險生產的掃描器。這就是我們在今年前三到四個月所取得的成就，我想說，現在客戶方面確實在努力實現這一目標，我們的客戶現在要求我們確保接下來的幾次升級也能像第一次升級一樣順利完成。

Sumant Wahi, Redburn.

蘇曼特·瓦希，雷德伯恩。

Gentlemen, good afternoon. Thanks for squeezing me in. My question is actually around the gross margin which you reported for this quarter and probably going forward.

先生們，下午好。謝謝你把我擠進來。我的問題實際上是關於您報告的本季度以及未來的毛利率。

Could you possibly kind of give us an idea of how this gross margin gets split out in terms of what has been the effect of Cymer being internalized within this gross margin? And how much is lithography or Holistic Lithography benefiting the gross margin as such right now? Then I have a follow-up.

您能否向我們介紹一下這個毛利率是如何分配的，以及 Cymer 內部化對這個毛利率的影響如何？那麼光刻技術或整體光刻技術目前對毛利率有多大幫助呢？然後我有一個後續問題。

I will give you a general answer on that. Like we said, the mix greatly impacts the gross margin just by the fact that we -- and we had it earlier on the call. Holistic Lithography is greatly accretive as it increases as a percent of revenue and EUV right now is dilutive. That will change over the next couple of years.

我將就此給你一個總體答案。就像我們所說的那樣，這種組合對毛利率有很大影響，因為我們—而且我們在早些時候的電話會議上已經提到過。整體光刻技術具有很大的增值潛力，因為它佔收入的百分比不斷增加，而 EUV 目前卻具有稀釋作用。這種情況在未來幾年內將會改變。

I think the Cymer affect you see over the longer run. The Cymer margins right now are included in the first 11 systems, which are very low because we had to put a second source in there. But I don't think that you see any short-term variation that relates to Cymer. The short-term variation really comes from the mix of revenue.

我認為從長遠來看您會看到 Cymer 的影響。目前，Cymer 的利潤包含在前 11 個系統中，這些系統的利潤非常低，因為我們必須放入第二個來源。但我不認為您會看到任何與 Cymer 相關的短期變化。短期變化其實來自於收入的組合。

But shouldn't Cymer internalization in the NXT tools have already benefited the Company's margins?

但是 Cymer 在 NXT 工具中的內化難道不應該已經為公司的利潤帶來了好處嗎？

A little bit. It also helps. I might add -- the Cymer service business for instance, the light source business there is a pretty solid business and that that contributes gross margins that are also above the corporate average. But it is yet another revenue category that helps with gross margins.

有一點點。這也有幫助。我想補充一點——例如，Cymer 服務業務、光源業務是一項相當穩固的業務，其毛利率也高於企業平均水平。但它是另一個有助於提高毛利率的收入類別。

In fact, Cyber is now an integral part of ASML and we are not splitting out our gross margins in our different business units, so we just have to live going forward with one gross margin for the Company.

事實上，網路現在是 ASML 不可或缺的一部分，我們不會在不同的業務部門中分割毛利率，因此我們只需要為公司維持一個毛利率。

Okay. And I guess this one has been asked in a way as well, but I'm just slightly confused about the push out of revenue which was guided about to --. I suppose if I did the calculation right, it's about EUR300-odd-million which is being pushed out from Q2, Q3.

好的。我想這個問題也曾被以某種方式問過，但我只是對相關收入的增加感到有點困惑——。我想如果我的計算正確的話，這個數字大約是 3 億歐元，是從第二季、第三季開始推出來的。

I am just wondering is there any possibility of you coming back next quarter and saying, well, you know what, they got their 14, 15 nanometer breakthrough and hence we are pulling it back. Could this actually feature in Q4 or should we just be thinking about overall [hurt] on our full-year revenues with this -- expectations with this particular figure?

我只是想知道您是否有可能在下個季度回來說，嗯，您知道嗎，他們在 14、15 奈米方面取得了突破，因此我們要將其撤回。這實際上會在第四季出現嗎？或者我們應該只考慮這個特定數字對我們全年收入的整體影響？

You know, I think somebody asked that question; could there be upsides? Well, the only upside I could see is that customers have breakthroughs which we are, of course, not very close to. And when they do they just need to take account of the nine-month lease time and they might come in earlier. It might come in a bit later, but that could indeed happen.

你知道，我認為有人問過這個問題；會有好處嗎？嗯，我能看到的唯一好處是客戶取得了突破，而我們當然還差得遠。當他們這樣做時，他們只需要考慮九個月的租賃時間，他們可能會提前入住。它可能會晚一點到來，但確實有可能發生。

With respect to -- you said the push out of EUR300 million. I calculate --

關於—您說要推出 3 億歐元。我計算了一下——

It was EUR100 million.

金額為1億歐元。

It was about EUR100 million from Q2 because we never guided Q3. So it's about EUR100 million, which is about 3% to 4% of what we guided so that's not significant. It's a few machines, but we just tell you what it is.

由於我們從未預測過第三季度，因此從第二季度開始約為 1 億歐元。所以大約是 1 億歐元，大約是我們指導金額的 3% 到 4%，所以這並不重要。這是幾台機器，但我們只是告訴你它是什麼。

Sorry, but I guess my confusion comes from the fact that we were assuming a bit of the 14, 16 nanometer revenue coming through in the second half of this year. Whereas the question previously which was asked was if the volume production comes in the second half of next year or maybe I got that wrong. The nine months ahead of that would imply Q4, Q1 orders. (multiple speakers)

抱歉，但我想我的困惑來自於這樣一個事實：我們假設今年下半年會有一部分 14、16 納米的收入。而之前提出的問題是量產是否會在明年下半年進行，或者我可能記錯了。未來九個月將意味著第四季、第一季的訂單。（多位發言者）

Under those assumptions, when it starts, the production ramp starts the middle of next year then they need to calculate back and then they need to get shipments in Q4, yes. That is under that assumption.

根據這些假設，當它開始時，產量將在明年年中開始增長，然後他們需要進行回溯計算，然後他們需要在第四季度發貨，是的。這是基於這樣的假設。

All right, thank you very much. I understand.

好的，非常感謝。我明白。

Srini Sundararajan, Summit Research.

Srini Sundararajan，高峰會研究。

Thanks for taking the question. My first question is why is your 2014 NAND guidance significantly better than two or three memory guys who have 35% and 37% versus your 45%?

感謝您回答這個問題。我的第一個問題是，為什麼你們的 2014 年 NAND 指導價格明顯優於兩三個內存廠商，他們的指導價格分別為 35% 和 37%，而你們的指導價格為 45%？

On NAND?

在 NAND 上？

Bit growth.

位元增長。

Bit growth (multiple speakers) [around] 40%. When you talked about customers we don't hear any other numbers. If you're talking about DRAM, DRAM is probably more like 25% to 27%. So what are you talking about?

位增長（多位發言者）[約] 40%。當您談到客戶時，我們沒有聽到任何其他數字。如果您談論的是 DRAM，那麼 DRAM 可能更像是 25% 到 27%。那你在說什麼？

Right. On NAND the customers have guided to 35% and 37% whereas you are guiding to 45%, so I was just wondering where the 8-odd-percent came from.

正確的。在 NAND 方面，客戶指導的是 35% 和 37%，而您指導的是 45%，所以我只是想知道這 8% 多的比例是從哪裡來的。

Well, we said 40%, which is basically a blended, amalgamated number of the customers that we've talked to. And we have to talk to all our net customers, so it's kind of a blended number. So 37% might be a number that somebody throws out and it might be 41% or 42% that somebody else throws out. We said 40%, not 45%.

嗯，我們說的是 40%，這基本上是與我們交談過的客戶的混合、合併數字。我們必須與所有網路客戶進行溝通，因此這是一個混合數字。因此，37% 可能是某人拋出的數字，也可能是 41% 或 42% 是其他人拋出的數字。我們說的是 40%，而不是 45%。

The presentation source shows mid-45%, by the way. Your presentation that was put on the web shows -- that's why I asked the question.

順便說一下，演示來源顯示為 45% 中間值。您發佈到網路上的簡報表明——這就是我提出這個問題的原因。

It's probably 40%. (multiple speakers) I said it also in the introductory statements that it is 40%. (multiple speakers) Sorry, just to clarify that for the others, if you go to -- on page 16 it does say [mid-40%].

大概是40%。（多位發言者）我在開場白中也說過，是 40%。（多位發言者）抱歉，我只是想向其他人澄清一下，第 16 頁確實寫著 [40% 左右]。

Okay, thanks. Let's make that a clarification. It is about 40%.

好的，謝謝。讓我們澄清一下。大約是40%。

Okay, thank you. On EUV, how many tools in your estimate are required for the 10 nanometer logic and for the sub 20 nanometers across all the customers? What do you think is the size of the EUV revenues from all the quals that are happening?

好的，謝謝。對於 EUV，您估計所有客戶的 10 奈米邏輯和 20 奈米以下製程需要多少台工具？您認為從目前發生的所有品質事件來看，EUV 的收入規模是多少？

What we (multiple speakers) is using our capacity that would actually need our capacity of 10 -- 12 to 15 units in 2015. So if you take the 10 nanometer logic introduction, early introduction on the, let's say, 1X high DRAM and there will be customers that say, listen, we need to prepare our production learning for 7 nanometers. Then we will have onesies or twosies that we will sell. We think we will be between 12 and 15 units for next year.

我們（多位發言者）正在使用的產能實際上需要 2015 年 10 到 12 到 15 個單位的產能。因此，如果您採用 10 奈米邏輯介紹，早期介紹 1X 高 DRAM，那麼會有客戶說，聽著，我們需要為 7 奈米做好生產學習準備。然後我們會出售連身衣或兩件套衣服。我們認為明年我們的單位數量將在 12 至 15 個之間。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Westin Twigg, Pacific Crest Securities.

威斯汀·特維格（Westin Twigg），太平洋皇冠證券公司。

Thanks, just two questions. The first one, just was wondering if you could give us a little bit more idea on the 14 nanometer pushout regarding technology challenges. You said maybe customers could have a breakthrough to get upside, but it sounds like you have high conviction that demand does pick up within the next few quarters.

謝謝，只有兩個問題。第一個問題，我只是想知道您是否可以給我們一些有關 14 奈米推廣方面的技術挑戰的想法。您說也許客戶可以取得突破並獲得收益，但聽起來您非常確信需求在未來幾季內會回升。

I am just wondering how severe the technology challenges that your seeing are at that 16, 14 nanometer FinFET node.

我只是想知道您所看到的 16、14 奈米 FinFET 節點的技術挑戰有多嚴峻。

We don't see that to the level that would make us expert on the subject. Those are the customers. But we see the behavior where of course customers say, hey, this could be a few quarters later, so this is what we are reporting to you that we actually see that as a result.

我們認為這還不足以讓我們成為該主題的專家。這些都是顧客。但我們當然會看到客戶會說，這可能還要再過幾個季度才會發生，所以我們要向你們報告我們實際看到的結果。

But I think, in general, what we are seeing is an innovating desire and push from our customers to keep shrinking. That means that if you look at what they tell us and we look at certain assumptions on the growth of the end markets, the 300,000 wafer start for this node, which is this two-phase node, 20 nanometer and let's say the FinFET node, is a very realistic number. And whether that happens let's say in 20 months or in 26 months it doesn't really matter.

但我認為，總的來說，我們看到的是客戶對創新的渴望和不斷縮小的推動力。這意味著，如果你看看他們告訴我們的內容，並看看我們對終端市場成長的某些假設，那麼這個節點（即這個兩相節點，20 奈米，我們稱之為 FinFET 節點）的 30 萬片晶圓的啟動是一個非常現實的數字。至於這是否發生在 20 個月或 26 個月後，其實並不重要。

So this is where our confidence comes from, that we believe in the discussion we have with our customers that they're going to solve any issue that they currently have, which I believe is largely driven by the fact that they are speeding up the shrink roadmap to such a point where they are putting so much strain on their own resources. And that it is inevitable that from time to time you will see some of those pushouts, which basically brings this node ramp back to what it should be.

所以這就是我們的信心來源，我們相信透過與客戶的討論，他們將解決當前遇到的任何問題，我相信這很大程度上是因為他們正在加快縮減路線圖的速度，以至於給自己的資源帶來了很大的壓力。並且不可避免的是，您有時會看到一些推出的情況，這基本上會使該節點坡道恢復到其應有的狀態。

So we have seen, and I repeat it again, the beginning of this node was the fastest ramp we've ever seen. It just goes back to a normal heartbeat.

所以我們已經看到，我再重複一遍，這個節點的起點是我們見過的最快的坡道。它只是恢復了正常的心跳。

I see, that's helpful. The other quick question I had was just on 3-D NAND you discussed that you're engaged with some customers. I'm wondering how many customers are actively working on 3-D NAND with you right now.

我明白了，這很有幫助。我的另一個快速問題是關於 3-D NAND，您曾討論過您正在與一些客戶接觸。我想知道目前有多少客戶正在與您一起積極進行 3-D NAND 工作。

All of them. 3-D NAND is just an architectural choice that is happening throughout the whole industry.

全部都是。3-D NAND 只是整個產業正在發生的一種架構選擇。

Okay. And have you shipped tools to all of the customers for 3-D NAND development that you know of?

好的。您是否已經向您所知的所有 3D NAND 開發客戶發送了工具？

We don't know what they do in their development fabs, but we do know what they ask us to ship. And that clearly indicates that they are all planning at a certain level, a certain model, day, and time -- and I cannot be specific about the customers of course -- the introduction of a vertical NAND solution.

我們不知道他們在開發工廠裡做什麼，但我們知道他們要求我們運送什麼。這清楚地表明，他們都在某個特定的層級、特定的模型、日期和時間計劃推出垂直 NAND 解決方案——當然，我無法具體說明客戶的具體情況。

Perfect. Very helpful, thank you.

完美的。非常有幫助，謝謝。

Actually let me jump in here, if you don't mind, because we only have time for one last question. If you were unable to get through on the call, feel free to give Investor Relations department a call and we will get back to you as quickly as we possibly can.

實際上，如果您不介意的話，請讓我插話，因為我們只剩下時間回答最後一個問題了。如果您無法接通電話，請隨時致電投資者關係部門，我們將盡快回覆您。

So with that, operator, can we have the last question?

那麼，接線員，我們可以問最後一個問題嗎？

Amit Harchandani, Citigroup.

花旗集團的阿米特·哈爾錢達尼 (Amit Harchandani)。

Good afternoon, gentlemen. Amit Harchandani, Citigroup. Thanks for absolutely squeezing me in.

先生們，下午好。花旗集團的阿米特·哈爾錢達尼 (Amit Harchandani)。非常感謝你給我安排這次機會。

Just one quick question. If I look from 2014 towards 2015 and we talk about 2014 being a good year for ASML and clearly the 2015 you are talking about 12 to 15 EUV tools coming through, what would be the different drivers that you could think of for the puts and takes? What kind of growth can we expect going from 2014 to 2015?

只是一個簡單的問題。如果我從 2014 年展望 2015 年，我們認為 2014 年對 ASML 來說是好年頭，而 2015 年顯然將有 12 到 15 種 EUV 工具問世，您能想到哪些不同的驅動因素會影響這些因素的得失呢？從 2014 年到 2015 年我們可以期待什麼樣的成長？

I understand this is a hypothetical question, but just to know your thoughts of what could be the moving parts where you have seen more confidence than the others, thank you.

我知道這是一個假設性問題，但我只是想了解您認為哪些因素比其他因素更能讓您感到自信，謝謝。

I think what is -- it's a good question but of course we're not going to give you any guidance on 2015 if we're not able to even guide on the fourth quarter of this year. But the general comment I would like to make -- we've been talking a lot about what people call pushout. I would call is going back to the regular Moore's Law heartbeat, the regular ramp, because this two-phase 20 nanometer FinFET ramp was the fastest we've ever seen.

我認為這是一個好問題，但如果我們無法對今年第四季的業績做出指引，那麼我們當然也不會對 2015 年的業績做出任何指引。但我想說的是，我們已經討論了很多人們所說的「推擠」問題。我稱之為回到正常的摩爾定律心跳、正常的斜坡，因為這個兩相 20 奈米 FinFET 斜坡是我們所見過的最快的。

Now if you see an adjustment of that timing, which is good, because if it would not be an adjustment everything would've been pushed and pulled into 2014, which actually would mean that that node would have been the fastest ramp and the 300,000 wafer starts would have been installed, let's say, first half of 2015. Yes? Done.

現在，如果您看到時間安排有所調整，這很好，因為如果沒有調整，一切都會被推遲到 2014 年，這實際上意味著該節點將是最快的增長節點，並且 300,000 片晶圓的啟動將會在 2015 年上半年完成。是的？完畢。

Now if we now go back to a more normal pattern of ramp, then 2015 would just see the result of the rollout of the FinFET solutions together with the normal rollout of I think the capacity additions that we need to see in and on NAND and the further technology transitions in DRAM. So I think what we are seeing today levels out, as I say, the capacity ramp over the years 2014 and not as the expectation was the emphasis on 2014 on.

現在，如果我們回到更正常的成長模式，那麼 2015 年就將會看到 FinFET 解決方案的推出，以及我認為我們需要看到的 NAND 內部和外部產能增加以及 DRAM 的進一步技術轉型。因此，我認為我們今天看到的情況是平穩的，正如我所說，2014 年的產能成長並不像預期的那樣，而是 2014 年的重點。

I think it's a qualitative answer but I cannot help you more than with this.

我認為這是一個定性的答案，但我無法為您提供更多幫助。

Appreciate it. Thank you.

非常感謝。謝謝。

Thanks, everybody. To finish the call, I would like to thank you again formally on behalf of the ASML's Board of Management for joining us today. Kiersten, if you could formally conclude the call, we would appreciate it. Thanks.

謝謝大家。在電話會議結束時，我謹代表 ASML 管理委員會再次正式感謝您今天的參與。基爾斯滕，如果您能正式結束通話，我們將不勝感激。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the ASML first-quarter 2014 results conference call. Thanks for participating. You may now disconnect.

女士們、先生們，ASML 2014 年第一季業績電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。