Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin. And I am Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations.

歡迎大家參加我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年財報電話會議。在這次電話會議上，我們有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Mikael Bratt；以及我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin。我是 Anders Trapp，投資者關係副總裁。

During today's earnings call, Mikael and Fredrik will, among other things, provide an overview of the strong sales and margin development in the fourth quarter, give an update on the price negotiations, outline the expected sequential margin improvement in 2023 and the journey towards our medium-term targets, as well as provide an update on our general business and market conditions. We will then remain available to respond to your questions. And as usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com.

在今天的財報電話會議上，Mikael 和 Fredrik 將概述第四季度強勁的銷售和利潤率發展，提供價格談判的最新情況，概述 2023 年預期的連續利潤率改善以及我們邁向我們的旅程中期目標，並提供有關我們一般業務和市場狀況的最新信息。然後我們將隨時可以回答您的問題。和往常一樣，幻燈片可在 autoliv.com 上獲取。

Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference some non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly press release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-K that will be filed with the SEC.

轉到下一張幻燈片。我們有安全港聲明，它是本演示文稿的組成部分，包括隨後的問答。在演示過程中，我們將參考一些非美國公認會計原則的措施。我們在 autoliv.com 上發布的季度新聞稿和將提交給美國證券交易委員會的 10-K 中披露了歷史上美國 GAAP 與非美國 GAAP 措施的調節。

Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3 p.m. Central European Time, so please follow a limit of 2 questions per person.

最後，我要提一下，本次電話會議預計在下午 3 點結束。歐洲中部時間，因此請遵循每人 2 個問題的限制。

I now hand over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

我現在將工作交給我們的首席執行官 Mikael Bratt。

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. I'd like to recognize the entire team for delivering another strong quarter, which I believe reflects our strong execution culture. The fourth quarter and the full year 2022 were important steps towards our medium-term targets, as we, through price adjustments, managed to gradually offset the highest raw material cost inflation that our industry has seen in decades.

謝謝你，安德斯。查看下一張幻燈片。我想表彰整個團隊帶來了另一個強勁的季度，我相信這反映了我們強大的執行文化。第四季度和 2022 年全年是實現我們中期目標的重要步驟，因為我們通過價格調整，設法逐漸抵消了我們行業幾十年來出現的最高原材料成本通脹。

In the fourth quarter, our organic sales growth outperformed light vehicle production significantly as a result of price increases, product launches and higher safety content per vehicle. Our sales in the quarter were well over USD 2.3 billion, despite a 7% currency headwind. We also achieved a strong profit recovery, increased the adjusted operating margin to 10% for the fourth quarter and 6.8% for the full year, in line with our full year guidance.

在第四季度，由於價格上漲、產品發布和每輛車更高的安全含量，我們的有機銷售增長顯著超過輕型汽車產量。儘管有 7% 的匯率逆風，我們本季度的銷售額仍遠超 23 億美元。我們還實現了強勁的利潤復甦，將調整後的第四季度營業利潤率提高至 10%，將全年提高至 6.8%，符合我們的全年指引。

Our strong performance in the fourth quarter is especially encouraging, considering that market conditions continued to be challenging with significant inflationary pressure and continued high level of customer call-off volatility. We generated a strong operating cash flow, meeting our full year indication. This, combined with improved EBITDA, lowered our leverage ratio to 1.4x from 1.6x last quarter.

我們在第四季度的強勁表現尤其令人鼓舞，因為市場狀況繼續充滿挑戰，通貨膨脹壓力巨大，客戶取消訂單的波動性持續高企。我們產生了強勁的經營現金流，達到了全年指標。這與改善的 EBITDA 相結合，將我們的槓桿率從上一季度的 1.6 倍降至 1.4 倍。

In the quarter, we paid $0.66 per share in dividend, an increase of around 3% from third quarter, and repurchased and retired 650,000 shares. Additionally, we retired 10 million of our treasury shares from previous stock repurchase programs.

本季度，我們支付了每股 0.66 美元的股息，比第三季度增加了約 3%，並回購和退役了 650,000 股。此外，我們從之前的股票回購計劃中收回了 1000 萬股庫存股。

The second half year development in 2022 strengthens our confidence in our midterm targets. In addition, we expect that our balance sheet and positive cash flow trend will allow for higher shareholder returns.

2022年下半年的發展，更加堅定了我們對中期目標的信心。此外，我們預計我們的資產負債表和積極的現金流趨勢將帶來更高的股東回報。

Looking now on an update of the 2022 margin progression on the next slide. During 2022, we reduced our cost base in a challenging market environment. We implemented hundreds of cost efficiency projects, especially in production and supply chain.

現在查看下一張幻燈片中 2022 年利潤率進展的更新。 2022 年，我們在充滿挑戰的市場環境中降低了成本基礎。我們實施了數百個成本效益項目，尤其是在生產和供應鏈方面。

As illustrated by this chart, we started the year at a very low adjusted operating margin level mainly from severe inflation in raw material, but also due to inflation in other cost categories, such as labor and freight.

如圖表所示，我們今年年初的調整後營業利潤率水平非常低，主要是由於原材料的嚴重通貨膨脹，但也由於其他成本類別的通貨膨脹，例如勞動力和運費。

We then managed to gradually improve adjusted operating margin from 3.2% in the first quarter to 10% in the fourth quarter as a result of successful negotiations with our customers regarding cost compensation. This sequential improvement reflects our high volumes and our strong focus on continuous improvement throughout the organization and our strategic road map initiatives.

由於與客戶就成本補償進行了成功談判，我們隨後設法將調整後的營業利潤率從第一季度的 3.2% 逐步提高到第四季度的 10%。這種連續改進反映了我們的高產量以及我們對整個組織和戰略路線圖計劃的持續改進的強烈關注。

We managed to offset these raw material-related cost shock successfully by year-end 2022. For 2023, the main challenge is to tackle the inflation in the non-raw material cost base without neglecting the raw material cost risks.

我們設法在 2022 年底前成功抵消了這些與原材料相關的成本衝擊。2023 年的主要挑戰是在不忽視原材料成本風險的情況下應對非原材料成本基礎的通脹。

Looking on the next slide. To support a sustainable business model in an inflationary environment, we continue to work closely with our customers to secure price increases to compensate for inflation, volatile LVP and supply chain disruptions. During 2022, we reached agreements with almost all OEMs on nonraw material -- on raw material-related price adjustments as well as, to a limited extent, also for other cost category, such as labor and freight.

查看下一張幻燈片。為了在通貨膨脹環境中支持可持續的商業模式，我們繼續與客戶密切合作以確保價格上漲以補償通貨膨脹、不穩定的 LVP 和供應鏈中斷。在 2022 年期間，我們與幾乎所有原始設備製造商就非原材料達成了協議——就與原材料相關的價格調整以及在一定程度上調整其他成本類別（例如勞動力和運費）達成了協議。

At the end of the year, product pricing largely reflected the cost level for raw materials. We have initiated discussions with our customers on nonraw material cost inflation such as labor, logistics and energy. We believe price adjustments will offset the nonraw material cost inflation with small positive effects in the first quarter of 2023, and gradually larger positive effects as the year progresses.

年末產品定價很大程度上反映了原材料的成本水平。我們已與客戶就勞動力、物流和能源等非原材料成本上漲展開討論。我們認為，價格調整將在 2023 年第一季度抵消非原材料成本通脹的小幅正面影響，並隨著時間的推移逐漸擴大正面影響。

Looking now on the order intake on the next slide. Our order intake for the full year continued to develop well, supporting long-term growth in a rapidly changing technology environment with many new OEMs and fast-growing in the number of EV platforms. The lifetime value of the 2022 order intake was in line with last year, despite currency headwinds and a more negative LVP outlook.

現在查看下一張幻燈片的訂單攝入量。我們全年的訂單量繼續保持良好發展，支持在快速變化的技術環境中實現長期增長，許多新的原始設備製造商和電動汽車平台數量快速增長。儘管匯率不利且 LVP 前景更為負面，但 2022 年訂單的生命週期價值與去年持平。

The strong order intake over the past year is an evidence that our company is the leading company in the passive safety automotive industry. One of our key performance indicators, customer satisfaction, has continued to improve and is at a high level. However, this does not mean that we can relax. We always strive for improving products, services, processes and costs. Our strong order intake and current customer satisfaction supports our confidence regarding our midterm sales targets.

過去一年的強勁訂單量證明了我們公司是被動安全汽車行業的領先公司。我們的關鍵績效指標之一——客戶滿意度持續提升並處於較高水平。然而，這並不意味著我們可以放鬆。我們始終致力於改進產品、服務、流程和成本。我們強勁的訂單量和當前的客戶滿意度支持我們對中期銷售目標的信心。

Looking on the order intake in more details on the next slide. In 2022, order win rates for new EV platforms were higher, both with new EV makers and traditional OEMs. We estimate that around 45% of our order intake in 2022 was for future battery electric vehicles. We are proud that we were successful in winning many contracts with new automakers. New automakers, mainly in North America and China, accounted for over 30% of our order intake, up from 12% last year.

在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地查看訂單攝入量。 2022 年，新電動汽車平台的訂單贏得率更高，無論是新電動汽車製造商還是傳統原始設備製造商。我們估計 2022 年約 45% 的訂單來自未來的純電動汽車。我們很自豪我們成功地贏得了與新汽車製造商的許多合同。主要在北美和中國的新汽車製造商占我們訂單量的 30% 以上，高於去年的 12%。

We won multiple awards supporting new markets and industry trends, like knee airbag, side airbags in India, integrated child seats, seatbelts specifically designed for electrical vehicles as well as seatbelts for zero-gravity style seats for self-driving vehicles. As a result of strong order intake over the past years, we expect an increase in overall product launches in 2023. This development contributes to building an either stronger platform for our long-term success.

我們贏得了多個支持新市場和行業趨勢的獎項，如膝部安全氣囊、印度側氣囊、集成兒童座椅、專為電動汽車設計的安全帶以及用於自動駕駛汽車零重力式座椅的安全帶。由於過去幾年訂單量強勁，我們預計 2023 年整體產品發布量會增加。這一發展有助於為我們的長期成功構建更強大的平台。

Looking now on the financial overview on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales of USD 2.3 billion was 10% higher than a year earlier, despite 7 percentage points currency headwind. Adjusted operating income, excluding costs for capacity alignments, increased from USD 177 million to USD 233 million. The adjusted operating margin was 10% in the quarter, 1.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The higher operating margin was mainly a result of high prices, operational leverage on higher volumes as well as cost saving activities. Operating cash flow was USD 462 million, which was USD 146 million higher than the same period last year, mainly due to improved working capital and higher net income.

現在查看下一張幻燈片的財務概覽。我們的綜合淨銷售額為 23 億美元，比去年同期增長 10%，儘管存在 7 個百分點的匯率不利因素。不包括產能調整成本的調整後營業收入從 1.77 億美元增加到 2.33 億美元。本季度調整後的營業利潤率為10%，比去年同期高出1.7個百分點。較高的營業利潤率主要是由於價格高、銷量增加的經營槓桿以及成本節約活動。經營現金流為 4.62 億美元，比去年同期增加 1.46 億美元，主要是由於營運資金改善和淨收入增加。

Looking now on sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Despite the currency headwind, the fourth quarter consolidated net sales increased by more than USD 200 million to USD 2.3 billion. Organic sales grew by 18% in the fourth quarter compared to last year. Retroactive pricing contributed with approximately $8 million, and price volume mix contributed with almost $350 million in the quarter. Looking on the regional sales split. Asia accounted for 42%, North America for 32% and Europe for 26%.

現在在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地了解銷售增長。儘管匯率不利，第四季度的綜合淨銷售額仍增長了 2 多億美元，達到 23 億美元。與去年同期相比，第四季度有機銷售額增長了 18%。本季度追溯定價貢獻了約 800 萬美元，價格量組合貢獻了近 3.5 億美元。查看區域銷售分配。亞洲佔42%，北美佔32%，歐洲佔26%。

We outlined our organic sales growth compared to LVP on the next slide. I am very pleased that our organic sales growth outperformed global light vehicle production growth in the fourth quarter. This was achieved as we continued to execute on our strong order book. According to S&P Global, light vehicle production increased by around 2% year-over-year in the quarter.

我們在下一張幻燈片中概述了與 LVP 相比的有機銷售增長。我很高興我們的有機銷售增長在第四季度超過了全球輕型汽車產量增長。這是在我們繼續執行我們強大的訂單簿時實現的。根據標普全球的數據，本季度輕型汽車產量同比增長約 2%。

This was slightly lower than expected in the beginning of the quarter, as production in North America, Japan and China were lower than expected. Based on the latest light vehicle production numbers, we outperformed global light vehicle production by around 15 percentage points in the quarter and by around 7 percentage points for the full year.

這略低於本季度初的預期，因為北美、日本和中國的產量低於預期。根據最新的輕型車產量數據，我們在本季度的全球輕型車產量高出約 15 個百分點，全年高出約 7 個百分點。

In the quarter, we outperformed in Europe by 23 percentage points, by 14 percentage points in both China and Japan and by 9 percentage points in Americas. Supported by new launches, market share gains and CPV growth as well as further price increases, we expect sales to outperform light vehicle production by around 12 percentage points in 2023.

本季度，我們在歐洲的表現優於 23 個百分點，在中國和日本均優於 14 個百分點，在美洲優於 9 個百分點。在新產品發布、市場份額增加和 CPV 增長以及價格進一步上漲的支持下，我們預計到 2023 年銷量將超過輕型汽車產量約 12 個百分點。

On the next slide, we see some key model launches from the fourth quarter. In the quarter, we had a high number of launches, especially in China and Japan. The models shown on this slide have an Autoliv content per vehicle from approximately $200 to close to $500. These models reflect the changes seen in the automotive industry in recent years, with several relatively new OEMs represented, and that 4 out of 9 are available as pure electrical vehicles.

在下一張幻燈片中，我們看到了第四季度推出的一些關鍵型號。本季度，我們推出了大量產品，尤其是在中國和日本。這張幻燈片上顯示的模型每輛車的 Autoliv 內容從大約 200 美元到接近 500 美元不等。這些車型反映了近年來汽車行業的變化，有幾家相對較新的 OEM 代表，9 輛中有 4 輛是純電動汽車。

In terms of Autoliv sales potential, the entirely redesigned Honda Pilot and Honda Accord launches are the most important. The long-term trend to higher content per vehicle is supported by front-center airbags, knee airbags, more advanced seatbelts and active pedestrian protection systems.

就奧托立夫的銷售潛力而言，完全重新設計的本田 Pilot 和本田雅閣的發布是最重要的。前中央安全氣囊、膝部安全氣囊、更先進的安全帶和主動行人保護系統支持了每輛車更高配置的長期趨勢。

Looking to our sustainability approach on the next slide. Guided by our vision of saving more lives, our mission is to provide world-class life-saving solutions for mobility and society. Sustainability is an integral part of our business strategy and fundamental driver for market differentiation and stakeholder value creation, helping to ensure that our business will continue to thrive and contribute to sustainable development in the long term.

在下一張幻燈片中查看我們的可持續發展方法。在拯救更多生命的願景指引下，我們的使命是為出行和社會提供世界一流的救生解決方案。可持續發展是我們業務戰略不可或缺的一部分，也是市場差異化和利益相關者價值創造的根本驅動力，有助於確保我們的業務繼續蓬勃發展，並為長期的可持續發展做出貢獻。

Our sustainability approach is based on 4 focus areas: saving more lives; safe and inclusive workplace; inclusive workplace; climate and responsible business, each consisting of broad ambitions and more specific short-term targets. Our sustainability approach is anchored in well-established international frameworks, such as the UN Global Compact, of which we have been a signatory for several years. We aim to be carbon neutral in our own operations by 2030, and furthermore aim for net zero emissions across our supply chain for 2040.

我們的可持續發展方法基於 4 個重點領域：拯救更多生命；安全和包容的工作場所；包容性工作場所；氣候和負責任的企業，每個都包含廣泛的雄心和更具體的短期目標。我們的可持續發展方法植根於完善的國際框架，例如聯合國全球契約，我們多年來一直是該契約的簽署國。我們的目標是到 2030 年在我們自己的運營中實現碳中和，並進一步目標是到 2040 年在我們的整個供應鏈中實現淨零排放。

These commitments place Autoliv among the frontrunners in the broader group of automotive suppliers. As a part of this commitment, our reduction targets were approved by the science-based targets initiative in February of 2022. We cooperate with international organizations, suppliers and customers to ensure maximum positive impact. A few examples of such partnerships includes the UN Road Safety Fund, this green steel collaboration with SSAB and Piaggio [Group] to push the boundaries of safety to include vulnerable road users.

這些承諾使奧托立夫在更廣泛的汽車供應商群體中處於領先地位。作為這一承諾的一部分，我們的減排目標於 2022 年 2 月獲得了基於科學的目標倡議的批准。我們與國際組織、供應商和客戶合作，以確保產生最大的積極影響。此類合作夥伴關係的一些例子包括聯合國道路安全基金，這是與 SSAB 和 Piaggio [Group] 的綠色鋼鐵合作，旨在突破安全界限，將弱勢道路使用者包括在內。

Now looking at the sustainability progress in 2022 on the next slide. During 2022, we initiated and concluded a number of activities to ensure our commitment and contribution to the UN sustainable development goals and our own sustainability targets. For example, we took steps to reach our ambition of saving 100,000 lives per year by expanding our activities in the vulnerable road use area.

現在在下一張幻燈片中查看 2022 年的可持續發展進展。 2022 年期間，我們啟動並完成了多項活動，以確保我們對聯合國可持續發展目標和我們自己的可持續發展目標的承諾和貢獻。例如，我們採取措施通過擴大我們在脆弱道路使用區域的活動來實現每年拯救 100,000 條生命的宏偉目標。

We conducted sustainability audits and carried out climate surveys, covering 98% of our direct material suppliers. We substantially increased our use of renewable electricity. We trained all senior management members in the main areas of our climate program, including decarbonization levers.

我們進行了可持續性審計和氣候調查，覆蓋了 98% 的直接材料供應商。我們大幅增加了可再生電力的使用。我們在氣候計劃的主要領域對所有高級管理人員進行了培訓，包括脫碳手段。

Autoliv is committed to provide safe working conditions for our employees. As a result of our continuous improvement activities, the incident rate reduced by over 20 percentage points in 2022. We will provide more information on our progress in our coming annual sustainability report.

奧托立夫致力於為我們的員工提供安全的工作條件。由於我們持續改進活動，事故率在 2022 年降低了 20 個百分點以上。我們將在即將發布的年度可持續發展報告中提供更多有關我們進展的信息。

I will now hand over to our CFO, Fredrik Westin, who will talk you through the financials on the next slide.

我現在將交給我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin，他將在下一張幻燈片中向您介紹財務狀況。

Thank you, Mikael. 2022 was, again, a turbulent year with both lower and more volatile light vehicle production than expected at the beginning of the year mainly due to supply chain disruptions.

謝謝你，米凱爾。 2022 年又是動蕩的一年，輕型汽車產量低於年初預期且波動更大，主要原因是供應鏈中斷。

Our net sales were $8.8 billion, with sales increasing organically by close to 14%, twice the increase in the underlying light vehicle production. The adjusted operating income decreased by 12% to $598 million. The adjusted operating margin was 6.8% compared to our latest guidance of reaching the upper range of between 6% and 7%.

我們的淨銷售額為 88 億美元，銷售額有機增長近 14%，是基礎輕型汽車產量增幅的兩倍。調整後營業收入下降 12% 至 5.98 億美元。調整後的營業利潤率為 6.8%，而我們最新的指引是達到 6% 至 7% 的上限。

The operating cash flow was $713 million compared to the guidance of between $700 million to $750 million. Earnings per share was $4.85. Dividends of $2.58 per share were paid, and we repurchased and retired 1.44 million shares for USD 115 million.

經營現金流為 7.13 億美元，而指引為 7 億至 7.5 億美元。每股收益為 4.85 美元。支付了每股 2.58 美元的股息，我們以 1.15 億美元的價格回購併註銷了 144 萬股股票。

Looking now at the full year adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. For the full year of 2022, our adjusted operating income was $598 million. This was $85 million lower than the previous year, which was a result of higher costs for raw materials and FX combined of approximately $460 million.

現在看看下一張幻燈片上的全年調整後營業收入橋。 2022 年全年，我們調整後的營業收入為 5.98 億美元。這比上一年減少了 8500 萬美元，這是由於原材料和外匯成本增加了約 4.6 億美元。

Costs for call-off volatility, such as premium freight and labor and material inefficiency, increased substantially as well. This was partly offset by positive effects from actions, including price increases and cost-saving activities as well as higher volumes.

取消波動的成本，例如高額運費、勞動力和材料效率低下，也大幅增加。這部分被行動的積極影響所抵消，包括價格上漲和成本節約活動以及更高的銷量。

SG&A and RD&E net combined was virtually unchanged, despite 14% organic growth.

儘管有 14% 的有機增長，但 SG&A 和 RD&E 的淨合併幾乎沒有變化。

Looking on the quarterly performance on the next slide. This slide highlights our key figures for the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021. Our net sales were $2.3 billion. This was 10% higher than Q4 2021. Gross profit increased by 8% to $399 million, while the gross margin declined slightly to 17.1%. The gross margin decrease was primarily driven by cost inflation and the volatile light vehicle production and has largely been compensated by price increases and cost savings.

查看下一張幻燈片的季度業績。這張幻燈片突出顯示了我們 2022 年第四季度與 2021 年第四季度相比的關鍵數據。我們的淨銷售額為 23 億美元。這比 2021 年第四季度高出 10%。毛利潤增長 8% 至 3.99 億美元，而毛利率則小幅下降至 17.1%。毛利率下降的主要原因是成本上漲和輕型汽車生產波動，並在很大程度上被價格上漲和成本節約所彌補。

In the quarter, we made $3 million in provisions for capacity alignment activities. The adjusted operating income increased from $177 million to $233 million. The adjusted operating margin increased from 8.3% to 10.0%. The operating cash flow was $462 million, and I will provide further comments on the cash flow later in the presentation.

本季度，我們為產能調整活動撥備了 300 萬美元。調整後的營業收入從 1.77 億美元增加到 2.33 億美元。調整後的營業利潤率從 8.3% 增加到 10.0%。運營現金流量為 4.62 億美元，我將在稍後的演示文稿中提供有關現金流量的進一步評論。

Earnings per share diluted increased by $0.49, where the main drivers were $0.43 from higher adjusted operating income and $0.04 from lower tax costs. Our adjusted return on capital employed and return on equity both increased to 25%, up from 19% and 18%, respectively.

每股攤薄收益增加 0.49 美元，主要驅動因素是調整後營業收入增加 0.43 美元，稅收成本降低 0.04 美元。我們調整後的已動用資本回報率和股本回報率分別從 19% 和 18% 增至 25%。

We paid a dividend of $0.66 per share in the quarter, an increase of $0.02 from last year, and repurchased and retired 650,000 shares for USD 55 million under our stock repurchase program.

我們在本季度支付了每股 0.66 美元的股息，比去年增加了 0.02 美元，並根據我們的股票回購計劃以 5500 萬美元的價格回購和註銷了 650,000 股股票。

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the fourth quarter of 2022, our adjusted operating income of $233 million was $56 million higher than the same quarter last year. The impact of raw material price changes was negative $83 million in the quarter.

現在看下一張幻燈片中調整後的營業收入橋。 2022 年第四季度，我們調整後的營業收入為 2.33 億美元，比去年同期高出 5600 萬美元。本季度原材料價格變化的影響為負 8300 萬美元。

Foreign exchange impacted the operating profit positively by $9 million. This was mainly a result of positive revaluation effects, partly offset by negative translation effects.

外匯對營業利潤產生了 900 萬美元的積極影響。這主要是積極的重估效應的結果，部分被負面的轉換效應所抵消。

SG&A and RD&E net, combined, was $22 million lower, mainly due to timing of engineering income and positive currency translation effects.

SG&A 和 RD&E 淨額合計減少 2200 萬美元，主要是由於工程收入的時間安排和積極的貨幣換算效應。

Our operations were positively impacted by improved pricing, higher volumes as well as our strategic initiatives, partly offset by the significant headwinds from call-off volatility and general cost inflation. As a result, the leverage on the higher sales, excluding currency effects, was in the upper end of our typical 20% to 30% operational leverage range, despite the substantial headwinds from raw materials.

我們的運營受到定價改善、銷量增加以及我們的戰略舉措的積極影響，部分被取消波動和一般成本通脹帶來的重大不利因素所抵消。因此，儘管原材料存在巨大阻力，但不包括貨幣影響在內的更高銷售額的槓桿率處於我們通常 20% 至 30% 的運營槓桿率範圍的上限。

Looking at our cash flow overview on the next slide. For the fourth quarter of 2022, operating cash flow increased by $146 million to $462 million, mainly due to stronger performance in working capital and higher net income. During the quarter, trade working capital decreased by $132 million as a result of improved payables, in part due to our capital efficiency program, partly offset by higher inventories.

在下一張幻燈片上查看我們的現金流概覽。 2022 年第四季度，經營現金流增加了 1.46 億美元，達到 4.62 億美元，這主要是由於營運資金表現強勁和淨收入增加。在本季度，由於應付賬款增加，貿易營運資金減少了 1.32 億美元，部分原因是我們的資本效率計劃，部分被較高的庫存所抵消。

The continued inefficiencies in inventories is a result of the volatile light vehicle production and logistics challenges. Our ambition is to eliminate these inefficiencies as soon as possible, which requires the stabilization of the supply chain and call-off patterns from our customers.

庫存持續低效是輕型汽車生產和物流挑戰不穩定的結果。我們的目標是盡快消除這些低效率，這需要穩定供應鍊和客戶的取消模式。

For the fourth quarter, capital expenditures net increased by 8% to $165 million. In relation to sales, it was 7.1%, virtually the same as a year ago. The high level is related to the ongoing footprint activities and capacity expansion for growth, especially in China.

第四季度，資本支出淨增長 8% 至 1.65 億美元。銷售額為 7.1%，與一年前基本持平。高水平與正在進行的足跡活動和增長能力擴張有關，尤其是在中國。

For the fourth quarter of 2022, free cash flow was $297 million, $133 million higher than a year earlier. For the full year of 2022, operating cash flow declined somewhat from the prior year to $713 million mainly due to inventory inefficiencies. Cash flow -- free cash flow amounted to $228 million, down $72 million from 2021. CapEx in relation to sales was 5.5%, in line with our full year indication, and the cash conversion was around 54%. In 2023, we expect positive cash flow development from higher net income and a gradually more stable light vehicle production.

2022 年第四季度，自由現金流為 2.97 億美元，比去年同期增加 1.33 億美元。 2022 年全年，經營現金流較上年略有下降至 7.13 億美元，主要原因是庫存效率低下。現金流——自由現金流為 2.28 億美元，比 2021 年減少 7200 萬美元。與銷售額相關的資本支出為 5.5%，與我們的全年指標一致，現金轉換率約為 54%。到 2023 年，我們預計更高的淨收入和逐漸更穩定的輕型汽車生產將產生正現金流。

Now looking on our leverage ratio developments on the next slide. The leverage ratio at the end of December 2022 was 1.4x. This was an improvement from the 1.6x in the previous quarter, as our 12 months trailing adjusted EBITDA increased by $49 million and our net debt decreased by $99 million.

現在在下一張幻燈片上查看我們的槓桿率發展情況。 2022 年 12 月末的槓桿率為 1.4 倍。這比上一季度的 1.6 倍有所改善，因為我們過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 增加了 4900 萬美元，我們的淨債務減少了 9900 萬美元。

Now looking at the liquidity position on to the next slide. At the end of the quarter, we had a significant liquidity cushion of approximately $1.7 billion in cash and unutilized committed credit facility. To minimize refinancing risks, we have diversified our long-term funding sources, and we also have a maturity profile that is well spread over the coming years. None of the credit facilities are subject to financial covenants.

現在查看下一張幻燈片的流動性狀況。在本季度末，我們擁有約 17 億美元現金和未動用承諾信貸額度的大量流動性緩衝。為了將再融資風險降至最低，我們對長期資金來源進行了多元化處理，而且我們的期限分佈在未來幾年也很分散。信貸設施均不受財務契約的約束。

With that, I hand it back to you, Mikael.

有了這個，我把它還給你，Mikael。

Thank you, Fredrik. Let's look at the financial and market environment we see for 2023 on the next few slides. Large part of the auto industry continues to operate at or near recessionary levels mainly due to supply chain constraints. Despite concerns surrounding the ongoing volatility of the supply chain and recessionary fears, global production is projected to increase by 3.5% to 82 million vehicles in 2023, according to S&P Global January 2023.

謝謝你，弗雷德里克。讓我們在接下來的幾張幻燈片中看看 2023 年的金融和市場環境。主要由於供應鏈限制，大部分汽車行業繼續處於或接近衰退水平。根據標準普爾全球 2023 年 1 月的數據，儘管圍繞供應鏈的持續波動和經濟衰退的擔憂存在擔憂，但預計 2023 年全球產量將增長 3.5%，達到 8200 萬輛。

For first quarter, global light vehicle production is expected to improve by 2.6% compared to last year, but decline by 6%, more than 1 million units compared to the fourth quarter. The decline versus fourth quarter is mainly an effect of supply chain issues from the recent wave of COVID-19 in China.

第一季度，全球輕型汽車產量預計比去年增長 2.6%，但比第四季度下降 6%，超過 100 萬輛。與第四季度相比的下降主要是中國最近一波 COVID-19 的供應鏈問題的影響。

With the relaxing of the COVID policy in China, LVP as well as short-term demand have been negatively impacted. As a result, first quarter production in China has been lowered by close to 0.5 million units, with volume losses expected to be recovered in subsequent quarters.

隨著中國 COVID 政策的放寬，LVP 和短期需求都受到了負面影響。因此，中國第一季度的產量下降了近 50 萬台，預計隨後幾個季度將彌補產量損失。

In North America and Europe, the near-term production forecast continue to be limited by automakers' ability to produce not by demand.

在北美和歐洲，近期產量預測繼續受到汽車製造商生產能力而非需求的限制。

Now looking on the next slide. We expect 2023 to be a challenging year as inflation impacts our nonraw material cost base, which is almost twice as large as our raw material cost base. In 2022, the main cost challenge was related to raw materials affecting our costs for purchased components.

現在看下一張幻燈片。我們預計 2023 年將是充滿挑戰的一年，因為通貨膨脹會影響我們的非原材料成本基礎，這幾乎是我們原材料成本基礎的兩倍。 2022 年，主要的成本挑戰與影響我們採購組件成本的原材料有關。

Although many commodity indices are down since their peaks in 2022, we currently assume raw material costs unchanged in 2023, the reason being that the prices of specific raw materials used in our products, such as automotive-grade steel, has not declined as much as the generic steel indices would indicate. Additionally, we see higher costs for some materials such as yarn and resin.

儘管許多大宗商品指數自 2022 年達到峰值以來有所下降，但我們目前假設原材料成本在 2023 年保持不變，原因是我們產品中使用的特定原材料（例如汽車級鋼材）的價格跌幅沒有達到通用鋼鐵指數將表明。此外，我們看到紗線和樹脂等某些材料的成本更高。

For 2023, the main cost challenge is related to labor and energy inflation, which impacts us directly as well as through suppliers' value-added costs. Already, during 2022, the tight labor market, mainly in North America resulted in significantly higher-than-normal labor inflation. For 2023, we foresee further headwinds from wage increases, especially in Europe. We also predict cost increases from suppliers due to labor inflation and higher energy costs. Additionally, we expect higher costs for logistics and utilities in our operations, mainly in Europe.

2023 年，主要的成本挑戰與勞動力和能源通脹有關，這直接影響我們並通過供應商的增值成本產生影響。 2022 年期間，主要在北美的勞動力市場緊張已經導致勞動力通脹率顯著高於正常水平。到 2023 年，我們預計工資上漲將帶來更多不利因素，尤其是在歐洲。我們還預測，由於勞動力通脹和更高的能源成本，供應商的成本會增加。此外，我們預計我們運營中的物流和公用事業成本會更高，主要是在歐洲。

We have initiated new discussions with our customers aimed at offsetting this broader inflation. We believe it will be challenging. But nevertheless, we expect the price adjustments will gradually, throughout the year, offset nonraw material cost inflation.

我們已經開始與客戶進行新的討論，旨在抵消這種更廣泛的通貨膨脹。我們相信這將充滿挑戰。但儘管如此，我們預計價格調整將在全年逐步抵消非原材料成本上漲。

Looking at the 2023 business outlook on the next slide. We expect a significant improvement in adjusted operating margin in 2023 compared to 2022, supported mainly by 15% organic sales growth, cost control and product price adjustments. We expect continued high sales outperformance versus light vehicle production in 2023, supported by launches, higher prices, content per vehicle increases and regional mix.

在下一張幻燈片中查看 2023 年的業務前景。我們預計，與 2022 年相比，2023 年調整後的營業利潤率將有顯著改善，這主要得益於 15% 的有機銷售增長、成本控制和產品價格調整。我們預計 2023 年銷量將繼續高於輕型汽車產量，這得益於發布、更高的價格、每輛車的內容增加和區域組合。

We expect the adjusted operating margin in the first quarter to be around 5% due to lower LVP, and cost inflation is expected to increase faster than our cost compensations in the beginning of the year. We anticipate price adjustments will gradually, throughout the year, offset nonraw material cost inflation, and the pattern will be similar to the quarterly pattern seen in 2022, with limited positive effects in the first quarter and gradually more as the year progress.

由於 LVP 較低，我們預計第一季度調整後的營業利潤率約為 5%，預計成本通脹的增長速度將快於我們年初的成本補償。我們預計全年價格調整將逐步抵消非原材料成本通脹，其格局將類似於 2022 年的季度格局，第一季度的積極影響有限，隨著時間的推移逐漸增加。

This trajectory will be further supported by improvements from strict cost control, footprint optimization as well as expected gradual improvement of the supply chain and light vehicle production stability.

嚴格的成本控制、足跡優化以及供應鍊和輕型汽車生產穩定性的預期逐步改善將進一步支持這一軌跡。

Looking at our 2023 financial indications on the next slide. Our full year 2023 indications exclude costs and gains from capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters and other discrete items. Our full year indication is based on the light vehicle production growth assumption of around 3%, in line with S&P Global outlook.

在下一張幻燈片中查看我們的 2023 年財務指標。我們的 2023 年全年指標不包括產能調整、反壟斷相關事務和其他離散項目的成本和收益。我們的全年指標基於 3% 左右的輕型汽車產量增長假設，與標準普爾全球展望一致。

We expect sales to increase organically by around 15%. Currency translation effects are assumed to be around negative 1%. We expect an adjusted operating margin of around 8.5% to 9%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD 900 million. Our positive cash flow trend should allow for increasing shareholder returns.

我們預計銷售額將有機增長 15% 左右。假定貨幣換算效應約為負 1%。我們預計調整後的營業利潤率約為 8.5% 至 9%。營運現金流預計約為9億美元。我們積極的現金流趨勢應該會增加股東回報。

Turning the slide to look at progress towards our midterm targets. In the medium term, we are expecting to continue to grow our core business, airbags, seatbelts and steering wheels, through execution on the current strong order book. The other important growth driver is safety content per vehicle driven by continuous updates of government regulations and crash test ratings.

轉動幻燈片，看看實現我們的中期目標的進展情況。從中期來看，我們預計通過執行當前強勁的訂單，繼續發展我們的核心業務，即安全氣囊、安全帶和方向盤。另一個重要的增長驅動力是政府法規和碰撞測試評級不斷更新所推動的每輛車的安全含量。

Based on our order book and expected CPV increases, our growth targets for the medium term is to grow organically by around 4 percentage points more than light vehicle production growth per year on average. This excludes any price compensation for raw materials and other inflationary costs.

根據我們的訂單和預期的 CPV 增長，我們的中期增長目標是有機增長比輕型汽車產量平均每年增長高出約 4 個百分點。這不包括任何原材料價格補償和其他通貨膨脹成本。

In 2022, our outperformance was 7 percentage points, including price adjustments. And for 2023, we expect to outperform light vehicle production by around 12 percentage points. This is substantially above our growth targets. Even if we disregard the effects of the price increases on the outperformance, we are still on track to deliver on the growth targets of 4 percentage points outperformance on average. To maintain the growth momentum beyond the market share driven growth, we are pursuing an ambitious innovation program.

2022 年，我們的表現優於 7 個百分點，包括價格調整。到 2023 年，我們預計輕型汽車產量將高出約 12 個百分點。這大大高於我們的增長目標。即使我們忽略價格上漲對跑贏業績的影響，我們仍然有望實現平均跑贏業績 4 個百分點的增長目標。為了保持超越市場份額驅動增長的增長勢頭，我們正在推行一項雄心勃勃的創新計劃。

Now looking on the multiple levers for margin improvements on the next slide. In the past 2 years, Autoliv has significantly reduced its cost base in a challenging market environment. We have implemented hundreds of cost efficiency projects, especially in production and supply chain.

現在在下一張幻燈片中查看提高利潤率的多種槓桿。在過去的 2 年中，奧托立夫在充滿挑戰的市場環境中顯著降低了成本基礎。我們已經實施了數百個成本效益項目，尤其是在生產和供應鏈方面。

Our medium-term adjusted operating margin target of around 12% is based on the previously communicated framework. This relies on the continued implementation of our strategic initiatives, including optimization, digitalization and footprint optimization, together with the following conditions; a business environment with a stable global light vehicle production of at least 85 million; and that headwind from inflation do not have a greater net negative impact on our operating margin that we had in 2021 offset through price compensation or declining raw material prices.

我們的中期調整後營業利潤率目標約為 12%，這是基於之前傳達的框架。這依賴於我們戰略舉措的持續實施，包括優化、數字化和足跡優化，以及以下條件；全球輕型車產量穩定在8500萬輛以上的營商環境；通貨膨脹帶來的逆風並沒有對我們在 2021 年通過價格補償或原材料價格下降所抵消的營業利潤率產生更大的淨負面影響。

We remain confident that if these conditions are met for the full year 2024, which we see as possible if the political and macroeconomic situation improves, we should reach the 12% adjusted operating margin target in 2024.

我們仍然有信心，如果這些條件在 2024 年全年都得到滿足（如果政治和宏觀經濟形勢有所改善，我們認為這是可能的），我們應該會在 2024 年達到 12% 的調整後營業利潤率目標。

Now looking on the next slide. I look forward to sharing more about our journey with you at our Investor Day on June 12, 2023, where the main focus will be on product, strategic road map as well as optimization and operational efficiency. The event will be held at our technology center in Auburn Hill, Michigan, USA. I'm looking forward to seeing many of you there.

現在看下一張幻燈片。我期待在 2023 年 6 月 12 日的投資者日與您分享更多關於我們的旅程，屆時主要關注產品、戰略路線圖以及優化和運營效率。該活動將在我們位於美國密歇根州奧本山的技術中心舉行。我期待在那裡見到你們中的許多人。

Turning to the next slide. In closing, to summarize our 2023 outlook, we expect continued strong sales outperformance versus light vehicle production; a challenging first quarter in terms of operating margin, which should gradually improve throughout the year; a significant full year adjusted operating margin improvement compared to 2022.

轉到下一張幻燈片。最後，總結我們的 2023 年展望，我們預計銷售業績將繼續強勁超過輕型汽車生產；第一季度的營業利潤率充滿挑戰，全年應該會逐漸改善；與 2022 年相比，全年調整後的營業利潤率顯著提高。

We remain mindful of the risk of deteriorating economic conditions and supply chain disruptions, but I am confident that our leading position, the work we have done to become more resilient and our experience and agility will enable us to manage further challenging conditions -- the future challenging conditions.

我們仍然關注經濟狀況惡化和供應鏈中斷的風險，但我相信，我們的領先地位、我們為提高彈性所做的工作以及我們的經驗和敏捷性將使我們能夠應對更具挑戰性的條件——未來具有挑戰性的條件。

I will now hand back to Anders.

我現在將交還給安德斯。

Thank you, Mikael. Turning to the next slide. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions. I now turn it back to you, Ralf.

謝謝你，米凱爾。轉到下一張幻燈片。我們對今天的收益電話會議的正式評論到此結束，我們想打開問題熱線。我現在把它還給你，拉爾夫。

(Operator Instructions) We are now going to proceed with the first question. The questions come from the line of Rod Lache from Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們現在將繼續第一個問題。這些問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

Just firstly, in 2021, you announced digitization and automation program that should save about $160 million, I think, over 2 years. And it was $60 million from footprint changes, and there was also an expectation that R&D would decline by 100 basis points. Can you just provide a little bit more color on what you've achieved so far on those and what you see as achievable in front of you in 2023?

首先，在 2021 年，您宣布了數字化和自動化計劃，我認為該計劃將在 2 年內節省約 1.6 億美元。這是 6000 萬美元來自足跡變化，並且預計研發將下降 100 個基點。您能否就迄今為止在這些方面取得的成就以及您認為 2023 年可以實現的目標提供更多色彩？

Thank you, Rod. No, I think when it comes to those activities that we laid out there in 2021, and originally actually in 2019, as a part of our journey here, and I want to say, it was a number of strategic road maps initiatives that should strongly support our journey here, I would say, that we are performing well on those.

謝謝你，羅德。不，我認為當談到我們在 2021 年，實際上是在 2019 年安排的那些活動時，作為我們在此旅程的一部分，我想說的是，一些戰略路線圖倡議應該強烈支持我們在這裡的旅程，我會說，我們在這些方面表現良好。

And I think we have been consistent throughout the last couple of challenging years here to hold on to the majority of these initiatives to secure that the underlying improvement were still on track, despite that we have this challenging environment, of course, disturbing the overall net result here.

我認為我們在過去充滿挑戰的幾年裡始終如一地堅持其中的大部分舉措，以確保基本的改進仍在軌道上，儘管我們面臨著這個充滿挑戰的環境，當然，擾亂了整體網絡結果在這裡。

But I would say, thanks to those initiatives, we are feeling comfortable on the way forward here. And of course, they have also contributed for us to deliver the results that we are delivering here in this quarter as well. So long story short, I would say we are on track when it comes to strategic road map initiatives that you referred to.

但我要說的是，由於這些舉措，我們對這裡的前進道路感到很自在。當然，他們也為我們在本季度交付的結果做出了貢獻。長話短說，我想說的是，就您提到的戰略路線圖計劃而言，我們正在走上正軌。

Can you maybe provide some quantification of what is still in front of you from those? And the reason I'm asking, maybe just I'm looking at the fourth quarter strong margin. And I know that there's typically a seasonal lift of about 120 basis points from engineering recoveries.

你能否從那些人中提供一些仍然擺在你面前的東西的量化數據？我問的原因，也許只是我在看第四季度的強勁利潤率。而且我知道工程恢復通常會帶來大約 120 個基點的季節性提升。

But it would look like, even adjusted for that, you'd be in the mid- to high 9% range off of that. Presumably, there's some positive from these restructurings and digitization and automation. But your target margin for the full year 2023 is only 8.5% to 9%. So could you help me reconcile that maybe with a little bit of a bridge?

但看起來，即使對此進行了調整，你也會處於 9% 的中高範圍內。據推測，這些重組以及數字化和自動化帶來了一些積極的影響。但您 2023 年全年的目標利潤率僅為 8.5% 至 9%。那麼你能幫我調和一下這可能有一點橋樑嗎？

Yes. I think, you let me start, and I will hand over to Fredrik here to take you through the different steps there. But coming back to the strategic initiatives here, as I said, they are on track. But with that said, we also see that we have still a lot of opportunities in that area.

是的。我想，你讓我開始，我會把這裡交給 Fredrik 來帶你完成那裡的不同步驟。但回到這裡的戰略舉措，正如我所說，它們已經步入正軌。但話雖如此，我們也看到我們在該領域仍有很多機會。

I mean, some of them has longer lead times, and we are in progress here of securing many of the footprint initiatives that we have launched, for example, as a part strategic initiatives. And specifically, when it comes to the optimization here, it's, of course, a gradual journey, as we are implementing it also when we have new program launches, so that you have a sequential development that could take some calendar time.

我的意思是，其中一些有更長的交貨時間，我們正在這裡取得進展，以確保我們已經啟動的許多足跡計劃，例如，作為戰略計劃的一部分。具體來說，當涉及到這裡的優化時，這當然是一個漸進的過程，因為我們也在啟動新程序時實施它，因此您有一個可能需要一些日曆時間的順序開發。

So good progress, but still great opportunities as we move forward here. And of course, the bridge from where we are in '20, expect us to be here in relation to the midterm targets. There are a number of components that we just went through.

如此好的進展，但隨著我們在這裡前進，仍然有很大的機會。當然，我們在 20 世紀所處的橋樑，希望我們能夠實現中期目標。我們剛剛經歷了一些組件。

But I'll let Fredrik take you through the details there.

但我會讓 Fredrik 帶您了解那裡的詳細信息。

Yes. I mean -- for '23, I mean, the main contributors will be in the carryover effect and then the incremental additional pricing versus what you compare what the pricing point was going into last year and then, of course, the organic growth that we see, excluding pricing. And those are the two main components that are the positive drivers.

是的。我的意思是 - 對於 23 年，我的意思是，主要貢獻者將是結轉效應，然後是增量附加定價與你比較去年的定價點，當然還有我們的有機增長看，不包括定價。這些是積極驅動因素的兩個主要組成部分。

But then don't neglect that we're also laying out here that we do see quite significant inflationary headwinds, and the largest part of that is actually on the value-added components that we see from our supply base and then followed by our labor cost inflation that we expect and, then to a smaller extent, on logistics and utilities.

但是不要忽視我們也在這裡指出，我們確實看到了相當大的通脹逆風，其中最大的部分實際上是我們從供應基地看到的增值部分，然後是我們的勞動力我們預期的成本通脹，然後是物流和公用事業的成本通脹。

If you then look at going beyond that, it is the continued volume growth that we expect and also delivering on the market share expansion. So the launch activities that will drive up the margin further, further improvements from the strategic initiatives that you do see that are starting to bite and have effects.

如果你再考慮超越這一點，那就是我們預期的持續銷量增長，以及市場份額的擴大。因此，啟動活動將進一步提高利潤率，進一步改進你所看到的戰略舉措，這些舉措已經開始產生影響。

And then the variable component is, of course, what is the incremental inflation effect that we then need to offset, either through further cost reduction activities or through negotiations with our customers. And those are the main building blocks, both for '23, but then also beyond.

然後，可變部分當然是我們需要通過進一步降低成本活動或通過與客戶談判來抵消的增量通貨膨脹效應。這些都是主要的組成部分，既適用於 23 年，也適用於未來。

Okay. Maybe just lastly, can you quantify the labor energy and logistics inflation that you need to offset? And are you saying that you will offset it for the full year or by the end of the year?

好的。也許就在最後，你能量化你需要抵消的勞動力能源和物流通貨膨脹嗎？你是說你會在全年或年底前抵消它？

We would offset it by the end of the year, hence, also the somewhat lower margin that we're indicating in the first quarter, and that's also due to the -- there's a calendar year effect of how some of these inflationary components come in, not the least on the labor cost side.

我們將在年底前抵消它，因此，我們在第一季度表示的利潤率也略低，這也是由於 - 這些通脹因素中的一些如何進入日曆年的影響，尤其是在勞動力成本方面。

What I can indicate is that, I mean, as I said, the highest headwind we're facing or what we're expecting is in -- on the value-add component of our suppliers, so the components that we procure and then followed by labor and then the smallest component being, as I said, logistics and utilities. Overall, it is less than what we had in terms of raw material headwinds in 2022.

我可以指出的是，我的意思是，正如我所說，我們面臨的最大阻力或我們所期望的是——我們供應商的增值組件，因此我們採購然後遵循的組件通過勞動力，然後是最小的組成部分，正如我所說，物流和公用事業。總的來說，這比我們在 2022 年的原材料逆風方面要小。

We are now going to proceed with our next question, and the questions come from the line of Mattias Holmberg from DNB Markets.

我們現在將繼續我們的下一個問題，這些問題來自 DNB Markets 的 Mattias Holmberg。

I wonder if you could break down the outperformance of 12% versus light vehicle production in 2023 a bit. So is the delta versus the 4% outperformance target all the price increases? Or are there any other moving parts that you can quantify? And if you don't want to quantify, perhaps you could just rank the different drivers in order of importance that adds up to the 12%, please?

我想知道你是否可以稍微分解一下 2023 年 12% 與輕型汽車產量的表現。那麼 delta 與 4% 的跑贏目標是否都是價格上漲？還是有任何其他可以量化的活動部分？如果你不想量化，也許你可以按重要性順序對不同的驅動因素進行排序，總計 12%，好嗎？

Sure. So it is -- I mean, the largest component will be price. And as I said, it's both a carryover effect from '22, but then also the incremental pricing that we're expecting, that's the largest contributor. Then followed by pretty much an even levels, CPV growth and the underlying LVP growth. And then you also have market share gains that we expect to be larger in '23 than they were in 2022, yes. And to be clear, not only LVP, but also then the third component is the launches and then -- that we have.

當然。所以它是 - 我的意思是，最大的組成部分將是價格。正如我所說，這既是 22 年的結轉效應，也是我們預期的增量定價，這是最大的貢獻者。然後是幾乎均勻的水平，CPV 增長和潛在的 LVP 增長。然後你還有市場份額的增長，我們預計 23 年的市場份額將比 2022 年更大，是的。需要明確的是，不僅是 LVP，還有第三個組成部分是發射，然後是我們擁有的發射。

Perfect. Second question for me on the buyback program, could you just remind us on how much left of the program? And given that you've been quite conservative in utilizing the mandate so far, do you believe that you're in a better position to become a bit more aggressive with the buyback now?

完美的。關於回購計劃的第二個問題，你能否提醒我們該計劃還剩多少？鑑於到目前為止您在使用授權方面一直相當保守，您是否認為您現在處於更有利的位置，可以在回購方面變得更加激進？

I mean, first of all, we are committed to our program, that is USD 1.5 billion program. We have 2 remaining years, '23 and '24, in that program. And as we have said before, I mean, we will let you know regularly here when we have made purchases here. And of course, what we have said here is also that the timing and the volumes, et cetera, is, of course, judged from time to time.

我的意思是，首先，我們致力於我們的計劃，即 15 億美元的計劃。在該計劃中，我們還有 2 年，'23 和 '24。正如我們之前所說，我的意思是，當我們在這裡進行採購時，我們會定期在這里通知您。當然，我們在這裡所說的也是時間和數量等，當然是不時判斷的。

But I feel confident on our way forward here with the track that we have laid out here that we will be able to provide good shareholder returns over time through the buyback program as well as the dividend. So I can't give you more details on the breakdown there because that will come gradually here.

但我對我們在這裡制定的軌道充滿信心，我們將能夠通過回購計劃和股息隨著時間的推移提供良好的股東回報。所以我不能給你更多關於那裡崩潰的細節，因為這將在這裡逐漸出現。

We are now going to proceed with our next question, and the questions come from the line of Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho Group.

我們現在將繼續下一個問題，問題來自瑞穗集團的 Vijay Rakesh。

Just a quick question. First, great -- good quarter and a great guide for 2023. But on the '23 guide, specifically on the 15% top line, I know you talked about market share and pricing and units. Is there a way to parse what would be the approximate magnitudes of all those in that 15% -- embedded in that 15%?

只是一個簡單的問題。首先，很好——很好的季度和 2023 年的很好指南。但是在 23 年的指南中，特別是在 15% 的收入上，我知道你談到了市場份額、定價和單位。有沒有一種方法可以解析那 15% 中所有那些（嵌入在這 15% 中）的近似幅度是多少？

Well, as I said, the order of magnitude is pricing first. Then launches market share, number two; and CPV, number three. And CPV, we see around 3%. And then light vehicle production, of course, around 3% as well. So that gives you the 15%. And then I'll leave it to you how you distribute the rest in between pricing and market share gain.

好吧，正如我所說，數量級首先是定價。然後推出市場份額，排名第二；和 CPV，第三。而 CPV，我們看到大約 3%。然後是輕型汽車產量，當然也有 3% 左右。所以這給了你 15%。然後我會留給你如何在定價和市場份額收益之間分配其餘部分。

Okay. Sounds good. And then on the -- as you look at 2023 LVP, obviously, we had 2 years of benefiting from a pretty nice mix shift to premium vehicles. How do you see '23? Do you see any mix -- any mean reversion in that shift mix moving back to mid-end? I also saw you kind of showed a much higher design win rate into EVs, but just trying to see how that changes as you look at '23.

好的。聽起來不錯。然後——當你看到 2023 年 LVP 時，很明顯，我們有 2 年的時間從相當不錯的混合轉向高端車輛中受益。你怎麼看'23？您是否看到任何混合 - 轉移組合中的任何均值回歸回到中端？我還看到你在電動汽車中展示了更高的設計獲勝率，但只是想看看你在 23 年時會發生什麼變化。

Thank you. No, we don't expect any dramatic shifts in the distribution there between premium and the one that I said there. I think what we feel very positively about is how we continue to be part of the transition over to electrical vehicles.

謝謝你。不，我們預計溢價和我在那裡所說的之間的分配不會發生任何重大變化。我認為我們感到非常積極的是我們如何繼續成為向電動汽車過渡的一部分。

I mean we are, of course, working also with the pure EV makers here and also, let's call it, the traditional OEMs that are getting more and more electrical EV platforms. So we are well positioned in our order book here for the transition over to EVs, and we see that as a very positive momentum.

我的意思是，當然，我們也在與這裡的純電動汽車製造商合作，我們稱之為擁有越來越多電動電動汽車平台的傳統原始設備製造商。因此，我們在向電動汽車過渡的訂單中處於有利地位，我們認為這是一個非常積極的勢頭。

And also, as you all know, content in electrical vehicles is positive. And it requires also, in many cases, more sophisticated products over time. So there's good development there.

而且，眾所周知，電動汽車的內容是積極的。在許多情況下，隨著時間的推移，它還需要更複雜的產品。所以那裡有很好的發展。

We're now going to proceed with our next question, and the questions come from the line of Giulio Pescatore from Exane BNP Paribas.

我們現在要繼續我們的下一個問題，問題來自 Exane BNP Paribas 的 Giulio Pescatore。

I have a couple of ones on China first. So the first one, you registered a large number of model launches in China in the last few quarters with Chinese car makers Geely, Great Wall, NIO, Changfeng. What percentage of your business in China at the moment is with local players as compared to international brands?

我首先有幾個關於中國的。所以第一個，你在過去幾個季度與中國汽車製造商吉利、長城、蔚來、長豐一起在中國註冊了大量車型發布。與國際品牌相比，您目前在中國的業務中本土企業所佔的比例是多少？

And then the second question again on China. How do you expect to continue to outgrow the market there? Is it content per vehicle as China approaches you and North America is more market share gain?

然後是關於中國的第二個問題。您期望如何繼續超越那裡的市場？隨著中國接近您和北美市場份額的增加，它是每輛車的內容嗎？

Yes. I think -- I mean, on the Chinese OEMs, as we defined them, we are roughly 25%, I would say, of our sales in China is towards them. As you're correctly stating here, I mean, we work very closely with many of them and also many of the upcoming OEMs here also.

是的。我認為——我的意思是，對於中國的原始設備製造商，正如我們所定義的那樣，我們在中國的銷售額中大約有 25% 是針對他們的。正如你在這裡正確陳述的那樣，我的意思是，我們與他們中的許多人以及這裡的許多即將到來的原始設備製造商密切合作。

And we are, of course, providing the opportunity also for them to be a robust supplier outside China as they continue to grow outside. But I think we have a lot of very interesting development agreements and programs with the Chinese OEMs for further growing that part of the portfolio. So I look very positively on our collaboration with our Chinese customers for the future here, both inside China, but also outside China.

當然，隨著他們繼續在海外發展，我們也為他們提供了成為中國境外強大供應商的機會。但我認為我們與中國原始設備製造商有很多非常有趣的開發協議和計劃，以進一步發展這部分產品組合。因此，我非常看好我們與中國客戶未來的合作，無論是在中國境內還是在中國境外。

And maybe to build on that, I mean, for 2023, we actually see the largest outperformance in terms of markets in China and Asia.

也許在此基礎上，我的意思是，到 2023 年，我們實際上看到中國和亞洲市場的表現最為出色。

We are now going to proceed with our next question, and the questions come from the line of Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken.

我們現在將繼續我們的下一個問題，這些問題來自 Handelsbanken 的 Hampus Engellau。

Two questions for me, which was what you have disclosed, but it -- maybe negotiations are. I mean, I would it be interesting to hear what type of rate increases we're looking at. So that's the first question.

我有兩個問題，這是你所披露的，但它——也許是談判。我的意思是，聽到我們正在關注的加息類型會很有趣。這是第一個問題。

Second question is on this price increases that you've been even compensated for contracts that have already been delivered, if you have any [cash] number for what type of contribution you have that on your EBIT for fourth quarter, if there were any. Those are my two questions.

第二個問題是關於這個價格上漲，你甚至已經為已經交付的合同得到了補償，如果你有任何 [現金] 數字說明你在第四季度的息稅前利潤中有什麼類型的貢獻，如果有的話。這是我的兩個問題。

Hampus, sorry, but can you repeat your first question? You're breaking up a little bit there.

Hampus，抱歉，你能重複你的第一個問題嗎？你在那里分手了一點。

Okay. No, I was asking if you had a number on how much wage increases you had seen for the year in the organization in average, if it's like 5% or 10%?

好的。不，我是問你是否有關於你在組織中看到的一年平均工資增長多少的數字，如果是 5% 或 10%？

Labor increases in '22.

22 年勞動力增加。

In 2022 or 2023?

2022 年還是 2023 年？

2023, of course.

當然是 2023 年。

Okay. Yes, it's -- so it's a single-digit percent number above what we would normally have. Mid-single-digit percent number increase versus what we would normally have, yes, so above normal wage inflation here.

好的。是的，它是——所以它比我們通常擁有的高出個位數百分比。與我們通常擁有的相比，中等個位數的百分比增長，是的，因此高於正常的工資通脹。

Fair enough. And then did you have like any cost compensation for the delivered contracts in the quarter?

很公平。然後你對本季度交付的合同有任何成本補償嗎？

Yes, we don't disclose that level of detail. Sorry, Hampus.

是的，我們不會透露那種程度的細節。對不起，漢普斯。

We're now going to proceed with our next question, and the questions come from the line of Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

我們現在要繼續我們的下一個問題，問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

Just following up on the earlier question, looking at the second half rate, the margin that you're guiding to for '23 is actually almost in line with second half rate. Yet sales, if you annualize the second half, are up a lot. So why the low conversion on those higher sales? What are the offsets there?

只是跟進前面的問題，看看下半年的利率，你為 23 年指導的利潤率實際上幾乎與下半年的利率一致。然而，如果你將下半年按年計算，銷售額會增長很多。那麼，為什麼那些較高銷售額的轉化率較低呢？那裡有什麼偏移量？

I don't think we're guiding for the second half. I mean, what we're indicating is the margin for the first quarter, but we're not giving any guidance on top line or anything on a quarterly level. So I'm not sure I understand...

我認為我們不會指導下半場。我的意思是，我們所指的是第一季度的利潤率，但我們沒有就收入或季度水平提供任何指導。所以我不確定我是否理解...

Yes, sir. If I average your margin in the second half of '22, it was around 8.8%, and your guidance at the midpoint for this year is around 8.8%. And yet, sales are supposed to be up into next year. So what are the offsets relative to where we stood in the second half? I think a lot of investors are kind of using that as a jumping off point.

是的先生。如果我平均你在 22 年下半年的利潤率，約為 8.8%，而你今年的中點指導約為 8.8%。然而，銷售額應該會持續到明年。那麼相對於下半場我們所處的位置的抵消是什麼？我認為很多投資者都以此為起點。

Okay. Well, then, yes, the major issue are the headwinds that we're seeing on inflation, in general, so not the raw material. Cost development that we expect to be more or less flat year-over-year. But then, as we indicated here several times, it's the inflation we're expecting on the value add from our suppliers.

好的。那麼，是的，主要問題是我們在通貨膨脹方面看到的不利因素，一般來說，而不是原材料。我們預計成本發展或多或少與去年同期持平。但是，正如我們在這裡多次指出的那樣，這是我們預期供應商增加值的通貨膨脹。

So -- and that is mainly energy and labor, but then also the labor cost inflation that I described before and logistics costs and, to a very limited extent, utilities in our own operations.

所以 - 這主要是能源和勞動力，還有我之前描述的勞動力成本通脹和物流成本，以及在非常有限的範圍內，我們自己運營中的公用事業。

And those headwinds are significant. But as I indicated, they are not as high as a headwind as we had from raw materials last year, but that is the main challenge that we're facing in this year.

這些阻力很大。但正如我所指出的，它們並不像我們去年在原材料方面遇到的阻力那麼大，但這是我們今年面臨的主要挑戰。

Got it. Very helpful. Actually, I think it relates to my second question. So the net impact in guidance of the expected increase in inflationary costs and what you're expecting in terms of price recoveries is still a net negative for the year. You're not expecting to get the full recovery within the full year. Maybe by the Q4, you get full recovery. Is that what's baked in there?

知道了。非常有幫助。實際上，我認為這與我的第二個問題有關。因此，對通貨膨脹成本預期增加的指導的淨影響以及您對價格回升的預期仍然是今年的淨負面影響。您不會期望在全年內完全康復。也許到第四季度，你就會完全康復。是裡面烤的嗎？

Yes. For the full year would be a net negative and then -- but with the different phasing that we have not fully recovered it in the first quarter, and then you would see a gradual improvement, like, in 2022 throughout the year. And then we would be at compensated levels coming out of the year.

是的。全年將是淨負值，然後——但隨著我們在第一季度還沒有完全恢復的不同階段，你會看到逐步改善，比如在 2022 年全年。然後我們將達到今年的補償水平。

We are now going to proceed to our next question, and the questions come from the line of Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea.

我們現在要進行下一個問題，這些問題來自 Nordea 的 Agnieszka Vilela。

If we can get back to outperformance and actually revisit what you expected for 2022. With your first guidance, you expected about 11%, 12% even outperformance against the car production, and the outcome in the end was 7 percentage points outperformance.

如果我們能回到跑贏大盤，並重新審視你對 2022 年的預期。根據你的第一個指導，你預計汽車產量將跑贏 11%、12% 甚至跑贏，最終的結果是跑贏跑贏 7 個百分點。

So -- and you also mentioned in the beginning that you will have product launches and so on. And we obviously saw quite good price momentum in H2 2022. So can you just explain what went wrong when it comes to your actual outperformance in '22?

所以 - 你在開始時也提到你將有產品發布等。而且我們顯然在 2022 年下半年看到了相當不錯的價格勢頭。那麼你能解釋一下你在 22 年的實際表現中出了什麼問題嗎？

Yes. The main difference when we compare to the beginning of last year was the regional mix. So Europe was expected to be up, I think it was 17%, 18% on a year-over-year basis, and it actually ended up being down 1% or 2%. And that, as it has been one of our highest content vehicle markets, that created a very large negative regional mix, which is the main explanation of that difference.

是的。與去年年初相比，主要區別在於區域組合。因此，預計歐洲會上漲，我認為同比增長 17%、18%，但實際上最終下降了 1% 或 2%。而且，由於它一直是我們內容最豐富的汽車市場之一，因此造成了非常大的負面區域組合，這是對這種差異的主要解釋。

Perfect. And then the second question on your expected price trajectory for 2023. You mentioned somewhat lower price compensations in Q1, if I understood that correctly. So if you could just tell us what you really expect. And also with the spot prices coming down for raw materials, if you could tell us if your customers will not expect price decreases in mid-2023.

完美的。然後是關於 2023 年預期價格軌蹟的第二個問題。如果我理解正確的話，你在第一季度提到了較低的價格補償。所以，如果你能告訴我們你真正的期望是什麼。此外，隨著原材料現貨價格的下降，您能否告訴我們您的客戶是否預計價格不會在 2023 年年中下降。

I mean, we don't put out a specific price target here in all of this, but what we're saying here is that we are working with our customers to get full compensation one way or another. And of course, we are in parallel to that, also working with our own cost base, especially now when we're talking about the other inflationary costs outside the raw material bucket, so to speak. So that is what Fredrik have talked about gradually, compensation here for -- throughout the year.

我的意思是，我們並沒有在這裡提出一個具體的價格目標，但我們在這裡所說的是，我們正在與我們的客戶合作，以某種方式獲得全額補償。當然，我們與此同時，也在處理我們自己的成本基礎，尤其是現在當我們談論原材料桶之外的其他通貨膨脹成本時，可以這麼說。這就是弗雷德里克（Fredrik）逐漸談到的，這裡的補償——全年。

And I mean, of course, as raw material potentially here is gradually coming down, and as you have seen on the index side here, it is coming down. But in our case here, we have many products that is not really correlating to indices, so we don't see the same reduction.

我的意思是，當然，隨著這裡潛在的原材料逐漸下降，正如你在這裡的指數方面看到的那樣，它正在下降。但在我們這裡的例子中，我們有許多與指數沒有真正相關的產品，所以我們沒有看到同樣的減少。

But on a conceptual note, of course, when we see raw materials starting to come back, eventually, there is some mechanism here and discussion with our customers to give back on that. But at the same time, we are going to get compensation from our supplier base. So it's throughout the whole value chain. Of course, that needs to be regulated. As the way it was on the way up, it will be on the way down eventually there.

但在概念上，當然，當我們看到原材料開始回歸時，最終，這裡有一些機制並與我們的客戶討論以回饋這一點。但與此同時，我們將從供應商那裡獲得補償。所以它貫穿整個價值鏈。當然，這需要監管。正如它在上升的過程中一樣，它最終會在下降的過程中到達那裡。

We're now going to proceed with our next question, and the questions come from the line of Itay Michaeli from Citi.

我們現在要繼續我們的下一個問題，問題來自花旗的 Itay Michaeli。

Just wanted to -- as you pursue the commercial recoveries for the labor and other inflation, hoping you could give us a bit of insights as to how the initial conversations are going. Is it pretty consistent across regions and various automakers? And just kind of how do you think about when you think you'll be kind of largely complete to have real good line of sight into the targets that you provided today on those negotiations?

只是想——當你追求勞動力和其他通貨膨脹的商業復甦時，希望你能給我們一些關於最初對話進展情況的見解。它在不同地區和不同汽車製造商之間是否非常一致？你如何看待你認為你會在很大程度上完成對你今天在這些談判中提供的目標有真正良好的視線？

I think, first of all, we have now been spending a better part of the last 12 to 15 months here in discussions with our customer around the increased cost base, starting out with the raw material, as we have said here. And this is a new territory for our customers. It's a new territory for the supply base.

我認為，首先，我們在過去 12 到 15 個月的大部分時間裡都在這裡與客戶討論增加的成本基礎，從原材料開始，正如我們在這裡所說的那樣。這對我們的客戶來說是一個新領域。這是供應基地的新領域。

So of course, it has been a lot of discussion. It's very detailed discussion. And we have made good progress here as we could -- can report here. And of course, when we now move into a territory where it's outside the raw material that, at least has been, to some extent, in the scope historically because this is more challenging.

因此，當然，已經進行了很多討論。這是非常詳細的討論。我們已經盡可能地取得了良好的進展——可以在這里報告。當然，當我們現在進入原材料之外的領域時，至少在某種程度上，歷史上一直在範圍內，因為這更具挑戰性。

But I think we're all recognizing here as an industry that we need to find a way to work in a potentially higher inflation environment, and that calls for more regular discussion around price adjustments.

但我認為我們都認識到，作為一個行業，我們需要找到一種在潛在的更高通脹環境中工作的方法，這需要就價格調整進行更定期的討論。

So that is ongoing. It is constructive dialogues with our customers here. But the nature, of course, have a time line because we are not discussing price adjustments, anything else than what has been already impacted us. So the discussion is around already agreed agreement that needs to be updated.

所以這是正在進行的。這是與我們客戶的建設性對話。但是大自然當然有一個時間表，因為我們不是在討論價格調整，而是已經影響到我們的任何其他事情。因此，討論是圍繞需要更新的已經商定的協議展開的。

So therefore, it's on product and plant level going through the cost impact from these different drive -- cost drivers, as we have mentioned here. So it's far from one size fits all in the discussions here. It is on a product and plant level. So it's a lot of work. And therefore, there is some time delays in it.

因此，正如我們在這裡提到的，它在產品和工廠層面上經歷了這些不同驅動因素的成本影響——成本驅動因素。因此，這裡的討論遠非一刀切。它是在產品和工廠層面。所以這是很多工作。因此，它有一些時間延遲。

We have no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the conference back to Mr. Mikael Bratt for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

目前我們沒有其他問題。我現在想將會議交還給 Mikael Bratt 先生作閉幕詞。請繼續。

Thank you very much, Ralf. Before we end today's call, I would like to say that we are continuing to build resilience and strength in the turbulent times, relying on our strong company culture. Our actions are creating both short-term and long-term initiative improvements, and we believe these actions will enable us to build an even stronger position, despite the challenging macro environment. We remain agile and prepared for a more adverse market development, should that be necessary.

非常感謝，拉爾夫。在我們結束今天的電話會議之前，我想說的是，我們依靠強大的企業文化，在動蕩的時代繼續增強韌性和力量。我們的行動正在創造短期和長期的積極性改進，我們相信這些行動將使我們能夠在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中建立更強大的地位。如果有必要，我們將保持敏捷並為更不利的市場發展做好準備。

Autoliv continues to focus on our vision of saving more lives, which is our most important direct contribution to a sustainable society. Our first quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, April 21, 2023. And thank you, everyone, for participating in today's call. We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv. Until next time. Stay safe.

奧托立夫繼續專注於我們拯救更多生命的願景，這是我們對可持續發展社會最重要的直接貢獻。我們的第一季度財報電話會議定於 2023 年 4 月 21 日星期五舉行。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們衷心感謝您對奧托立夫的持續關注。直到下一次。注意安全。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。