Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Autoliv, Inc. Second Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker today, Anders Trapp. Please go ahead.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Autoliv, Inc. 2023 年第二季度財務業績電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議交給今天的第一位發言人安德斯·特拉普 (Anders Trapp)。請繼續。

Thank you, Nadia. So welcome, everyone, to our second quarter 2023 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin, and me Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations.

謝謝你，納迪亞。歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第二季度財報電話會議。出席本次電話會議的有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Mikael Bratt；以及我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin 和我投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。

During today's earnings call, Mikael and Fredrik will, among other things, provide an overview of the strong sales, earnings and cash flow development we had in the second quarter, the structural cost reduction activities that we're doing to secure our long- and medium-term competitiveness and also the expected sequential margin improvement that we see in Q3 and Q4 of this year as well as provide an update on our general business and market conditions as always.

在今天的財報電話會議上，Mikael 和 Fredrik 將概述我們第二季度的強勁銷售、盈利和現金流發展，我們為確保長期和中期競爭力而採取的結構性成本削減活動，以及我們在今年第三季度和第四季度看到的預期連續利潤率改善，並一如既往地提供有關我們總體業務和市場狀況的最新信息。

We will then remain available to respond to your questions. And as usual, the slides are available at autoliv.com.

然後我們將隨時回答您的問題。與往常一樣，這些幻燈片可在 autoliv.com 上獲取。

Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference some non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly press release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-Q filed with the SEC.

轉到下一張幻燈片。我們有安全港聲明，它是本演示文稿的組成部分，並包括隨後的問答。在演示過程中，我們將參考一些非美國公認會計準則衡量標準。歷史美國公認會計原則與非美國公認會計原則衡量標準的調節已在我們在 autoliv.com 上發布的季度新聞稿以及向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 中披露。

Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 p.m. Central European Time. So please follow a limit of 2 questions per person. I now hand it over to our Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt.

最後，我應該提到，本次電話會議預計於下午 3:00 結束。中歐時間。因此，請遵守每人 2 個問題的限制。我現在將其交給我們的首席執行官米凱爾·布拉特 (Mikael Bratt)。

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. I would like to start by thanking our employees for their great contributions. We saw continued improvement in customer call-off volatility in the quarter, but still higher volatility than prepandemic levels. We believe this reflects an improving global supply chain environment for both our customers and suppliers. Our organic sales grew by close to 27%, outperforming light vehicle production significantly in all regions.

謝謝你，安德斯。看下一張幻燈片。首先我要感謝我們的員工做出的巨大貢獻。我們看到本季度客戶取消波動性持續改善，但波動性仍高於大流行前的水平。我們相信這反映了我們的客戶和供應商的全球供應鏈環境的改善。我們的有機銷售額增長了近 27%，在所有地區都顯著超過了輕型汽車產量。

The strong growth was a result of product launches, higher safety content per vehicle and that we achieved the customer compensations we planned for in the quarter. Our profit margin development was in line with what we had expected as customer call-off volatility improved. We lowered our cost base and that we successfully negotiated the planned customer compensations related to the inflationary pressure.

強勁的增長得益於產品的推出、每輛車更高的安全含量以及我們實現了本季度計劃的客戶補償。隨著客戶取消波動性的改善，我們的利潤率發展符合我們的預期。我們降低了成本基礎，並成功協商了與通脹壓力相關的計劃客戶補償。

We achieved a record operating cash flow for the second quarter, driven by an improved adjusted operating income and a reversal of the negative working capital effects from the first quarter. Our debt leverage ratio decreased to 1.3x from 1.6x a quarter ago. This supports our shareholder returns ambitions.

在調整後營業收入改善和第一季度營運資本負面影響扭轉的推動下，我們第二季度實現了創紀錄的運營現金流。我們的債務槓桿率從一季度前的 1.6 倍降至 1.3 倍。這支持了我們股東回報的雄心。

In the quarter, we paid $0.66 per share in dividends and repurchased and retired 475,000 shares. We also announced the acceleration of our structural cost reductions aiming at simplifying our logistics and geographic footprint. As part of this, we recently announced a headcount reduction of around 1,100 mainly indirect employees with further actions to be announced as plan materialize.

本季度，我們支付了每股 0.66 美元的股息，並回購和退役了 475,000 股股票。我們還宣布加快結構性成本削減，旨在簡化我們的物流和地理足跡。作為其中的一部分，我們最近宣布裁員約 1,100 名，主要是間接員工，隨著計劃的落實，我們將宣布進一步的行動。

We continue to expect a gradual improving adjusted operating margin during 2023 with significantly greater price compensation and other recoveries in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. We continue to be in the forefront of safety technology development which has helped us keep momentum in our new order intake year-to-date. A great example of new innovations in the revolutionary new Bernoulli airbag that we presented at our Investor Day in Detroit in June that is based on the Bernoulli principle.

我們繼續預計 2023 年調整後營業利潤率將逐步改善，第四季度的價格補償和其他復蘇將顯著高於第三季度。我們繼續走在安全技術開發的最前沿，這幫助我們保持了今年迄今為止的新訂單增長勢頭。我們在 6 月份底特律投資者日上展示的革命性新型伯努利安全氣囊是基於伯努利原理的創新的一個很好的例子。

Now looking at the significant sequential cost improvements on the next slide. The meaningful steps we took in the second quarter supports my confidence in sequentially improving adjusted operating margin towards our full year indication. This, of course, also supports our journey towards our medium-term targets.

現在看看下一張幻燈片上顯著的連續成本改進。我們在第二季度採取的有意義的步驟支持了我對逐步提高調整後營業利潤率以實現全年指標的信心。當然，這也支持我們實現中期目標的旅程。

On this slide, we highlight the sequential improvement. In the quarter, we actively addressed our cost base and investment level and negotiated with our customers to secure pricing and other compensations that reflect the high inflation.

在這張幻燈片上，我們強調了連續的改進。本季度，我們積極解決成本基礎和投資水平問題，並與客戶進行談判，以確保反映高通脹的定價和其他補償。

Our labor efficiency continues to trend up supported by the implementation of our strategic initiatives, including automization and digitalization. Our gross margin improved by 180 basis points compared to the first quarter as a result of the higher labor efficiency, customer compensations, higher volumes and a more stable light vehicle production.

在自動化和數字化等戰略舉措的實施的支持下，我們的勞動效率持續呈上升趨勢。由於勞動效率提高、客戶補償、產量增加以及輕型汽車生產更加穩定，我們的毛利率比第一季度提高了 180 個基點。

At the same time, cost for RD&E and SG&A combined declined by 50 basis points in relation to sales. Combined with the gross margin improvement, this led to a substantial improvement in adjusted operating margin. With a more stable vehicle production, we managed to substantially reduce our trade working capital as well. As a result, our operating cash flow reached a new record level for a second quarter.

與此同時，研發、設計、銷售和管理成本合計相對於銷售額下降了 50 個基點。加上毛利率的改善，這導致調整後營業利潤率大幅改善。隨著汽車生產更加穩定，我們也設法大幅減少貿易營運資金。結果，我們第二季度的運營現金流達到了新的紀錄水平。

Now looking at the expected adjusted operating margin progression for 2023 on the next slide. For the remainder of 2023, we expect a quarter-by-quarter improvement in adjusted operating margin. We expect continued high year-over-year sales growth supported by launches, higher light vehicle production and content per vehicle increases. We anticipate that cost compensations from customers will continue to gradually offset cost inflation, especially in the fourth quarter.

現在看看下一張幻燈片中 2023 年預期調整後營業利潤率的進展情況。在 2023 年剩餘時間內，我們預計調整後營業利潤率將逐季度改善。我們預計，在新車推出、輕型汽車產量增加和每輛車內容增加的支持下，銷量將繼續保持較高的同比增長。我們預計客戶的成本補償將繼續逐步抵消成本通脹，特別是在第四季度。

The positive trajectory will be further supported by improvements from cost reductions as well as expected gradual improvement of supply chain and light vehicle production stability, as we have already seen in the second quarter.

正如我們在第二季度已經看到的那樣，成本削減的改善以及供應鍊和輕型汽車生產穩定性的預期逐步改善將進一步支持積極的軌跡。

The actions we are undertaking makes me confident in the gradual improving performance which should allow us to deliver a significant full year increase in cash flow and adjusted operating income.

我們正在採取的行動使我對業績的逐步改善充滿信心，這將使我們能夠實現全年現金流和調整後營業收入的大幅增長。

Looking now on the announced structural cost reduction actions on the next slide. To secure our medium- and long-term competitiveness and to support our financial targets, we are accelerating our global structural cost reductions including a substantial reduction of our global workforce with a particular focus on our European operations. These initiatives will continue to optimize our geographic footprint for a more effective structure while reducing costs and driving improvements in margin and cash flow.

現在看看下一張幻燈片上宣布的結構性成本削減行動。為了確保我們的中長期競爭力並支持我們的財務目標，我們正在加速全球結構性成本削減，包括大幅減少全球勞動力，特別關注我們的歐洲業務。這些舉措將繼續優化我們的地理足跡，以建立更有效的結構，同時降低成本並推動利潤和現金流的改善。

We intend to simplify and consolidate how we operate in all areas. The headcount reduction will affect people based in our offices, technical centers and plants, including leadership positions at all levels.

我們打算簡化和鞏固我們在所有領域的運作方式。裁員將影響我們辦公室、技術中心和工廠的人員，包括各級領導職位。

As a first step, we have accrued USD 109 million, primarily driven by a planned reduction of around 1,100 employees. This first step is expected to reduce costs by around $25 million in 2024 increasing to around $55 million in 2025 and to reach around $75 million when completed. Further actions will be announced as plans materialize.

作為第一步，我們已籌集了 1.09 億美元，主要是由於計劃裁員約 1,100 名員工。第一步預計將在 2024 年減少約 2500 萬美元的成本，到 2025 年增加到約 5500 萬美元，完成後將達到約 7500 萬美元。隨著計劃的落實，將宣布進一步的行動。

Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales increased by USD 2.6 billion, a record for a second quarter. This was more than USD 0.5 billion or 27% higher than a year earlier, driven by price, volume and mix.

現在在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地了解我們的銷售增長。我們的綜合淨銷售額增加了 26 億美元，創第二季度紀錄。受價格、數量和組合的推動，這一數字超過 5 億美元，比上年同期增長 27%。

Out of period cost compensations contributed with approximately USD 30 million, same as in the second quarter last year. Out-of-period compensations are retroactive price adjustments and other compensations that mainly relate to the first quarter but were negotiated in the second quarter.

期外成本補償貢獻約3000萬美元，與去年第二季度持平。期外補償是追溯價格調整和主要與第一季度相關但在第二季度協商的其他補償。

Looking on the regional sales split, Asia accounted for 37%, Americas for 35% and Europe for 28%. The China share increased to 19% from 17% last year, when China was largely closed due to COVID lockdowns.

從地區銷售分佈來看，亞洲佔37%，美洲佔35%，歐洲佔28%。中國的份額從去年的 17% 增加到 19%，當時中國因新冠疫情封鎖而基本處於封鎖狀態。

We outlined our organic sales growth compared to light vehicle production on the next slide. I am very pleased that our organic sales growth significantly outperformed global light vehicle production growth in the second quarter, as we continue to execute on our strong order book and successfully achieved the targeted customer compensations.

我們在下一張幻燈片中概述了與輕型汽車產量相比的有機銷售增長。我很高興第二季度我們的有機銷售增長顯著超過全球輕型汽車產量增長，因為我們繼續執行強勁的訂單並成功實現了目標客戶補償。

According to S&P Global, second quarter light vehicle production increased by close to 16% year-over-year. This was 250 basis points higher than the expectation at the beginning of the quarter. We outperformed global light vehicle production by around 11 percentage points in the quarter. We outperformed in China by 23 percentage points, in Japan by 22 percentage points and in the rest of Asia by 13 percentage points.

S&P Global 的數據顯示，第二季度輕型汽車產量同比增長近 16%。這比本季度初的預期高出 250 個基點。本季度我們的輕型汽車產量比全球輕型汽車產量高出約 11 個百分點。我們在中國的表現領先 23 個百分點，在日本領先 22 個百分點，在亞洲其他地區領先 13 個百分點。

Compared to the first quarter, our sales increased by 6%, twice as much as the light vehicle production growth. We expect the positive year-over-year sales growth trend to continue, and we expect to significantly outperform light vehicle production for the remainder of the year.

與第一季度相比，我們的銷量增長了6%，是輕型車產量增長的兩倍。我們預計同比銷售增長趨勢將持續，並且預計今年剩餘時間將顯著優於輕型汽車產量。

Looking now on financials in more detail on the next slide. The strong sales increase led to a substantial improvement in adjusted operating income. Excluding effect of capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters and litigation settlement, adjusted operating income increased by more than 70% to USD 212 million from USD 124 million last year. The adjusted operating margin was 8% in the quarter, an increase by 2 percentage points from the same period last year and by 2.7 percentage points from the first quarter.

現在在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地了解財務狀況。銷售的強勁增長導致調整後營業收入大幅改善。剔除產能調整、反壟斷相關事項和訴訟和解的影響，調整後營業收入從去年的1.24億美元增長70%以上至2.12億美元。本季度調整後營業利潤率為8%，較去年同期增加2個百分點，較一季度增加2.7個百分點。

Operating cash flow was USD 379 million, which was more than USD 400 million better than the same period last year as well as from the first quarter of 2023. Fredrik will provide further comments on our cash flow later in the presentation.

運營現金流為 3.79 億美元，比去年同期以及 2023 年第一季度增加了 4 億美元以上。Fredrik 將在稍後的演示中對我們的現金流提供進一步的評論。

On the next slide, we see some key model launches from the second quarter. In the quarter, we had a high number of product launches, especially in China. The models shown on this slide have an Autoliv content per vehicle from approximately USD 150 to close to USD 400. These models reflect the changes seen in the automotive industry in recent years with several relatively new OEMs represented and that 5 out of 9 are available as pure EVs.

在下一張幻燈片中，我們看到第二季度推出的一些關鍵型號。本季度，我們推出了大量產品，尤其是在中國。這張幻燈片上顯示的車型每輛車的 Autoliv 含量從大約 150 美元到接近 400 美元不等。這些車型反映了近年來汽車行業的變化，其中有幾家相對較新的 OEM 廠商，其中 9 款中有 5 款是純電動汽車。

In terms of Autoliv sales potential, Mercedes E-Class launch is the most significant. The long-term trend to higher CPV is supported by front, center airbags, rear side airbags and pedestrian protection products. For the full year, we expect a record number of launches. By region, we see higher number of launches in China, South Korea and Europe.

就奧托立夫的銷售潛力而言，梅賽德斯E級車的推出最為顯著。前排、中央安全氣囊、後排側安全氣囊和行人保護產品支撐著較高 CPV 的長期趨勢。我們預計全年的發布數量將創歷史新高。按地區劃分，我們發現中國、韓國和歐洲的發布數量較多。

I will now hand it over to our CFO, Fredrik Westin, who will talk about the financials on the next few slides.

我現在將其交給我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin，他將在接下來的幾張幻燈片中討論財務狀況。

Thank you, Mikael. This slide highlights our key figures for the second quarter of 2023 compared to the second quarter of 2022. Our net sales were $2.6 billion. This was a 27% increase. Gross profit increased by $121 million or 37% to $447 million, while the gross margin increased by 1.3 percentage points to 17%.

謝謝你，米凱爾。這張幻燈片重點介紹了我們 2023 年第二季度與 2022 年第二季度相比的關鍵數據。我們的淨銷售額為 26 億美元。增幅為 27%。毛利潤增加 1.21 億美元，即 37%，達到 4.47 億美元，毛利率增加 1.3 個百分點，達到 17%。

The gross profit increase was primarily driven by price increases, volume growth and lower costs for premium freight. This was partly offset by increased costs for personnel related to volume growth and wage inflation as well as adverse effects from unfavorable exchange rates and energy costs.

毛利潤的增長主要是由價格上漲、銷量增長和優質貨運成本下降推動的。這部分被與銷量增長和工資上漲相關的人員成本增加以及不利匯率和能源成本的不利影響所抵消。

In the quarter, we made a total adjustment of $118 million to the operating income, of which $109 million for capacity alignment activities and $8 million related to a litigation settlement. The adjusted operating income increased from $124 million to $212 million and the adjusted operating margin increased by 2 percentage points to 8.0%. I will explain more when we go through the operating income bridge later. The operating cash flow was $379 million and the adjusted earnings per share diluted increased by 103 cents, where the main drivers were $0.69 from higher adjusted operating income and $0.35 from taxes.

本季度，我們對營業收入進行了總計 1.18 億美元的調整，其中 1.09 億美元用於產能調整活動，800 萬美元與訴訟和解相關。調整後的營業收入從 1.24 億美元增加到 2.12 億美元，調整後的營業利潤率增加 2 個百分點，達到 8.0%。當我們稍後討論營業收入橋樑時，我將進行更多解釋。運營現金流為 3.79 億美元，調整後每股攤薄收益增加了 103 美分，其中主要驅動因素為調整後運營收入增加 0.69 美元和稅收 0.35 美元。

Our adjusted return on capital employed and return on equity increased to 21% and 25%, respectively. We paid a dividend of $0.66 per share in the quarter and repurchased and retired around 475,000 shares for $41 million under our stock repurchase program.

調整後的已動用資本回報率和股本回報率分別增至 21% 和 25%。我們在本季度支付了每股 0.66 美元的股息，並根據我們的股票回購計劃以 4100 萬美元的價格回購併退役了約 475,000 股股票。

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the second quarter of 2023, our adjusted operating income of $202 million was $88 million higher than the same quarter last year. Our operations were positively impacted by improved pricing and other customer compensations, higher volumes, lower costs for premium freight as well as our strategic initiatives partly offset by the significant headwinds from general cost inflation.

現在看看下一張幻燈片上調整後的營業收入橋樑。 2023 年第二季度，我們調整後的營業收入為 2.02 億美元，比去年同期增加 8800 萬美元。我們的業務受到定價和其他客戶補償的改善、銷量增加、優質貨運成本降低以及我們的戰略舉措的積極影響，但總體成本通脹的重大不利因素部分抵消了我們的業務。

The impact of raw material prices was limited. Foreign exchange impacted the operating profit negatively by $19 million. This was mainly as a result of negative transaction effects from the Mexican peso. Costs for SG&A and RD&E net combined was $25 million higher mainly due to higher personnel costs and projects.

原材料價格影響有限。外匯對營業利潤產生了 1,900 萬美元的負面影響。這主要是由於墨西哥比索的負面交易影響。 SG&A 和 RD&E 淨成本合計增加了 2500 萬美元，主要是由於人員成本和項目增加。

Out of-period cost compensation contributed with around $30 million, about the same as in the second quarter last year. As a result, the leverage on the higher sales, excluding currency effects and a patent settlement in 2022 was in the middle of our typical 20% to 30% operational leverage range.

期外成本補償貢獻了約 3000 萬美元，與去年第二季度大致相同。因此，排除貨幣影響和 2022 年專利和解，較高銷售額的槓杆位於我們典型的 20% 至 30% 運營槓桿範圍的中間。

This is despite not getting any leverage on the inflation compensation from our customers. The actions we are now taking, that Mikael talked about previously, should lead to higher operating leverage and profitability as the year progresses.

儘管我們沒有從我們的客戶那裡獲得任何通貨膨脹補償。米凱爾之前談到的我們現在採取的行動應該會隨著時間的推移帶來更高的運營槓桿和盈利能力。

Looking now on the cash flow on the next slide. For the second quarter of 2023, operating cash flow increased to $379 million due to improved adjusted operating income and the reversal of the negative working capital effects from the first quarter.

現在看看下一張幻燈片上的現金流。 2023 年第二季度，由於調整後營業收入的改善以及第一季度營運資本負面影響的扭轉，營業現金流增加至 3.79 億美元。

During the second quarter, working capital improved by $230 million mainly due to accruals for capacity alignments and reduction of trade working capital. Trade working capital was reduced by $117 million, driven by $161 million in higher accounts payables, $39 million in lower inventories that was partly offset by $83 million in higher receivables.

第二季度，營運資本增加了 2.3 億美元，主要是由於產能調整的應計費用和貿易營運資本的減少。貿易營運資本減少了 1.17 億美元，原因是應付賬款增加了 1.61 億美元，庫存減少了 3900 萬美元，但應收賬款增加了 8300 萬美元，部分抵消了這一影響。

Capital expenditures net decreased to $124 million from $139 million in the previous year. Capital expenditure net in relation to sales was 4.7% compared to 6.7% a year earlier. Free cash flow was $255 million which is $455 million higher than a year earlier.

資本支出淨額從上一年的 1.39 億美元減少至 1.24 億美元。與銷售額相關的資本支出淨額為 4.7%，而去年同期為 6.7%。自由現金流為 2.55 億美元，比去年同期增加 4.55 億美元。

Our full year indication of an operating cash flow of $900 million is unchanged.

我們全年經營現金流為 9 億美元的指標保持不變。

Now looking on our leverage ratio development on the next slide. The debt leverage ratio at the end of June 2023 improved by 0.3x to 1.3x compared to a quarter earlier. This was a result of $185 million lower net debt and $91 million higher 12 months trailing adjusted EBITDA.

現在看看下一張幻燈片上我們的槓桿率發展情況。截至 2023 年 6 月末，債務槓桿率較上一季度改善 0.3 倍至 1.3 倍。這是由於過去 12 個月的淨債務減少了 1.85 億美元，調整後 EBITDA 增加了 9100 萬美元。

The current stock repurchase program authorizes the company to repurchase up to USD 1.5 billion between January 2022 and the end of 2024. Under the program, Autoliv has currently repurchased 2.4 million shares for a total of USD 197 million. We are considering several factors when executing the program such as our balance sheet, the cash flow outlook, our credit rating and the general business conditions, not only the debt leverage ratio. We always strive for the balance that is best for our shareholders, both long and short term.

目前的股票回購計劃授權該公司在2022年1月至2024年底期間回購最多15億美元。根據該計劃，奧托立夫目前已回購240萬股股票，總金額為1.97億美元。我們在執行該計劃時考慮了幾個因素，例如我們的資產負債表、現金流前景、我們的信用評級和一般業務狀況，而不僅僅是債務槓桿率。我們始終努力尋求對股東最有利的平衡，無論是長期還是短期。

I now hand it back to you, Mikael.

我現在把它還給你，米凱爾。

Thank you, Fredrik. Now looking at the next slide. As supply chains have improved in many regions, vehicle demand and inventory restocking are now the main drivers for the market development. The third quarter, global light vehicle production is now expected by S&P Global to decline by 4% compared to last year.

謝謝你，弗雷德里克。現在看下一張幻燈片。隨著許多地區供應鏈的改善，車輛需求和庫存補充成為市場發展的主要驅動力。標準普爾全球目前預計第三季度全球輕型汽車產量將比去年下降 4%。

Compared to the second quarter, volumes are expected to be about 5% lower, mainly due to normal seasonality from summer shutdowns. Despite concerns surrounding elevated vehicle pricing in some markets and deteriorating credit conditions, global full year 2023 light vehicle production is projected to be increased by 5.1% to close to 84 million vehicles.

與第二季度相比，銷量預計將下降約 5%，這主要是由於夏季停產造成的正常季節性影響。儘管人們對某些市場的汽車價格上漲和信貸狀況惡化感到擔憂，但 2023 年全球輕型汽車產量預計將增長 5.1%，達到接近 8400 萬輛。

Light vehicle production in China continues to show relative strength owing to both a strong EV demand and export activity. LVP in North America is projected by S&P Global to increase by more than 8% in 2023. This is 3 percentage points higher than the S&P forecast 3 months ago. However, there are concerns around the upcoming union negotiations.

由於強勁的電動汽車需求和出口活動，中國的輕型汽車生產繼續表現出相對強勁的勢頭。標準普爾全球預計 2023 年北美的 LVP 將增長 8% 以上。這比標準普爾 3 個月前的預測高出 3 個百分點。然而，人們對即將舉行的工會談判感到擔憂。

Production in Europe continues to outperform expectations. Although 2023 volumes are to a large extent secured by inventory restocking and the reduction of OEM sales backlogs, we believe underlying demand have abated somewhat. We base our full year sales indications on a global light vehicle production growth of around 4%.

歐洲的生產繼續超出預期。儘管 2023 年的銷量在很大程度上是通過庫存補充和 OEM 銷售積壓的減少來保證的，但我們認為潛在需求有所減弱。我們的全年銷售指標基於全球輕型汽車產量增長 4% 左右。

Looking at our 2023 financial indications on next slide. Except for the currency translation effects, our full year 2023 indications are unchanged and exclude costs and gains from capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters, a litigation settlement and other discrete items.

在下一張幻燈片中查看我們的 2023 年財務指標。除貨幣換算影響外，我們的 2023 年全年指標保持不變，並且不包括產能調整、反壟斷相關事項、訴訟和解和其他離散項目的成本和收益。

Our full year indication is based on a light vehicle production growth assumption of around 4%. We expect sales to increase organically by around 15%. Currency translation effects are assumed to be around positive 1% instead of earlier assumptions of negative 1%.

我們的全年預測是基於 4% 左右的輕型汽車產量增長假設。我們預計銷售額將有機增長 15% 左右。貨幣換算效應假設為正 1% 左右，而不是之前假設的負 1%。

We expect an adjusted operating margin of around 8.5% to 9%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD 900 million. Our positive cash flow trend should allow for increasing shareholder returns.

我們預計調整後的營業利潤率約為 8.5% 至 9%。經營現金流預計約為9億美元。我們積極的現金流趨勢應該可以增加股東回報。

Turning to the next slide. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors. I now hand it back to Nadia.

轉到下一張幻燈片。我們今天的財報電話會議的正式評論到此結束，我們願意接受分析師和投資者的提問。我現在把它還給娜迪亞。

(Operator Instructions) Now we're going to take our first question, and the question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明） 現在我們要回答第一個問題，該問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

So first one is really around the LVP assumptions and environment. I think you've improved, I think, your assumption a little bit. It's maybe 4% for the year. I think previously, you were maybe looking at like 3%. At the same time, I think you're mentioning in some of the comments some of the UAW risks. Are you incorporating -- are you baking in something? Is the reason you're at 4% on your assumption versus maybe 5% S&P? Is it because of incorporating maybe some cushion in case there is some production losses from UAW strike? Is this in your guidance?

所以第一個是圍繞 LVP 假設和環境的。我認為你的假設有所改進。今年可能是4%。我想以前，你可能會看到 3% 左右。與此同時，我認為您在一些評論中提到了UAW 的一些風險。你是否正在合併——你是否在烘焙一些東西？這就是你的假設為 4% 而標準普爾為 5% 的原因嗎？是不是因為聯合汽車工人工會罷工造成一些生產損失，可能需要採取一些緩衝措施？這在你的指導下嗎？

Thank you for the question there. And when it comes to our light vehicle production outlook here, as you said, we have increased it from 3% to 4% as we have seen the development of the light vehicle production year-to-date. And also, of course, we are relating it to the S&P numbers that you know is also significantly higher than -- it's higher than what it was in the beginning of the year, and they are now looking at 5.1%.

謝謝你的提問。當談到我們的輕型汽車生產前景時，正如您所說，我們已將其從 3% 提高到 4%，因為我們看到了今年迄今為止輕型汽車生產的發展。當然，我們還將其與標準普爾的數據聯繫起來，你知道這些數據也顯著高於年初的數據，他們現在的數據是 5.1%。

With that said, it means that we continue to have a slightly more conservative view than S&P still. So when we started the year at 3%, we were also then baking in some risk that we saw there. So I think, of course, the UAW risk could be there. But I mean as we have a very well-diversed portfolio here and the U.S. is about -- Americas is about 1/3 and it starts to narrow down the OEMs that could be in that situation where it could impact the light vehicle production, it's still even a smaller part of our portfolio. So I would say, all in all, you have that baked into the number here. But for us also, it's very comfortable when it comes to our overall view for the full year here.

話雖如此，這意味著我們的觀點仍然比標準普爾稍顯保守。因此，當我們年初的利率為 3% 時，我們也面臨著我們在那裡看到的一些風險。所以我認為，當然，UAW 風險可能存在。但我的意思是，由於我們在這裡擁有非常多樣化的產品組合，而美國大約佔 1/3，並且它開始縮小可能會影響輕型汽車生產的原始設備製造商的範圍，因此它仍然是我們產品組合的一小部分。所以我想說，總而言之，你已經將這一點融入到了這裡的數字中。但對於我們來說，當談到我們全年的整體看法時，這也是非常舒服的。

And as a quick follow-up to this. You left your organic growth outlook unchanged despite the better LVP assumption. Is there -- what is the offset here?

作為對此的快速跟進。儘管 LVP 假設更好，但您的有機增長前景保持不變。這裡的偏移量是多少？

No, I think, I mean, it's no big, I would say, question around that, I would say. I mean it's a marginal improvement of our LVP upgrade here with 1 percentage points. And -- yes, so you shouldn't read in anything to it. Actually, it's more, let's call it, a rounding question here.

不，我想，我的意思是，我想說，這並不是什麼大問題，我想說。我的意思是，我們的 LVP 升級略微提高了 1 個百分點。而且——是的，所以你不應該讀其中的任何內容。實際上，我們稱之為捨入問題。

And then a question on margin, please. That would be my last question. So I think you made several comments as well in the slide around sort of like some level of back-end loadings between 3Q and 4Q because of seasonality and some of the negotiations. Just curious if it's sort of like more so than expected before? I think in the past, you had said that throughout the year, your margins will improve sequentially by about sort of like 2 points-or-so each quarter throughout the year, more or less. Are you now saying that there will be less so in 3Q and much more in the fourth quarter? Or is it sort of like still the same type of framework just that the fourth quarter are higher margins necessarily?

然後是關於保證金的問題。這是我的最後一個問題。因此，我認為您在幻燈片中也發表了一些評論，有點像第三季度和第四季度之間由於季節性和一些談判而造成的某種程度的後端負載。只是好奇它是否比之前預期的更相似？我想過去您曾說過，全年每個季度您的利潤率將連續提高約 2 個百分點左右，或多或少。您現在是說第三季度會更少，第四季度會更多嗎？或者，這是否仍然是同一類型的框架，只是第四季度的利潤率必然更高？

I think, I mean, we -- as you know, we don't guide the quarter here. But what we referred to was that the sequential development throughout the year should be similar to what we had last year in 2022. What we just want to remind you all about here is, of course, first of all, the seasonality that we always have between Q3 and Q4 where Q4 is a stronger quarter where we have a lot of engineering income centered towards, as one example.

我想，我的意思是，正如你所知，我們不在這裡指導本季度。但我們提到的是，全年的連續發展應該與去年 2022 年的情況類似。當然，我們在這裡只想提醒大家的是，首先，我們在第三季度和第四季度之間始終存在季節性，其中第四季度是一個強勁的季度，我們有很多工程收入集中於此，舉個例子。

And as we are progressing here with the price negotiations, which is, at least up until now, have not been ordinary course of business here. We have mentioned before that it's some calendar time here, and we think it's important here that we manage through those processes and negotiations with the customer in a thorough way and that could mean that you have it more back-end loaded in the second half of the year, similar little bit to what you saw in the first half of the year here also where we had a stronger Q2 in relation to Q1 as we're progressing with the negotiations.

當我們在這裡進行價格談判時，至少到目前為止，這還不是這裡的正常業務流程。我們之前提到過，現在是某個日曆時間，我們認為重要的是我們要徹底管理這些流程並與客戶進行談判，這可能意味著下半年後端負載會更多，與您在今年上半年看到的情況類似，隨著談判的進展，我們的第二季度相對於第一季度表現更強。

Now we're going to take our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Björn Enarson from Danske Bank.

現在我們要回答下一個問題。下一個問題來自丹斯克銀行的 Björn Enarson。

(technical difficulty) and on these negotiations, if you can talk a little bit about how the compensation looked like in the first half and Q2 how much and what kind of compensation you did get? I mean you're talking pricing or lump sum or what have you? And also to put that in perspective of what kind of expectation you should have for the second half?

（技術難度）關於這些談判，您能否談談上半年的薪酬情況以及第二季度您獲得了多少薪酬以及什麼樣的薪酬？我的意思是你說的是定價或一次性付款還是什麼？另外，您對下半年應該有什麼樣的期望？

Yes. I mean, as always, we don't disclose and say any details around the settlements that we have achieved there. But we can say that they are in line with our expectations for the first half. So both in terms of timing, but also in terms of height, what we were expecting.

是的。我的意思是，一如既往，我們不會透露和透露我們在那里達成的和解的任何細節。但我們可以說，他們符合我們對上半年的預期。所以無論是在時間上還是在高度上，都是我們所期待的。

There are -- because this is now more inflation related and that's raw material rated. There is a higher share of, say, lump sum settlements or compensations now than what we had last year. Whereas the vast majority last year was piece price adjustments, there is now a higher share of lump sum components in these negotiations or within the outcome of them.

有 - 因為現在這更多地與通貨膨脹相關，而且是原材料評級。現在一次性和解或賠償的比例比去年更高。去年絕大多數是計件價格調整，而現在這些談判或談判結果中的包乾部分所佔比例更高。

And for the rest of the year, it's still that there are still outstanding negotiations related to inflation, but also other components that we are negotiating and that's what Mikael alluded to here, that we want to secure ourselves the right time here to also then be able to successfully do these negotiations at the right height.

在今年剩下的時間裡，仍然有與通貨膨脹相關的懸而未決的談判，而且我們正在談判的其他部分也是如此，這就是米凱爾在這裡提到的，我們希望在這裡確保自己有正確的時間，以便能夠在正確的高度成功地進行這些談判。

Okay. Perfect. Clear. And if I may ask a second question. You also talked a little bit about the demand situation and you are still below S&P. But I would assume, I mean, we are in the middle of a catch up now. We see volume from OEMs, and you yourselves are very, very strong. Would you dare to have a view on where the underlying demand is, I mean, if we would not have had the sourcing crisis following the COVID situation?

好的。完美的。清除。我可以問第二個問題嗎？您還談到了需求情況，您的股價仍然低於標準普爾。但我認為，我的意思是，我們現在正處於追趕之中。我們看到原始設備製造商的銷量，而你們自己也非常非常強大。我的意思是，如果我們不會在新冠疫情之後出現採購危機，您敢於了解潛在需求在哪裡嗎？

No, I think it's -- no, I wouldn't say a number or so. But I think definitely that with the last couple of years' shortfall, you could say, in terms of delivering in line with the current demand there, we, for sure, have a backlog. And we also have backlog when it comes to refill the pipelines -- the inventory levels, for example, in the U.S., where it's still historically low, I would say it's probably half of what it normally is. So there is a significant volume there to be dealt with.

不，我認為是——不，我不會說一個數字。但我絕對認為，由於過去幾年的短缺，你可以說，就按照當前需求交付而言，我們肯定有積壓。在補充管道方面，我們也有積壓——例如，在美國，庫存水平仍然處於歷史低位，我想說這可能是正常水平的一半。因此，有大量的數據需要處理。

And if you look at the 2023 current LVP outlook here, we were still 25% below 2017-2018 volumes in Europe, and in North America, we are below with roughly 12%. So we're coming from a low level here. We are still at a relatively low levels. I think the delta between the underlying demand and the current outlook, when it comes to production levels, gives me, I would say, relative comfort that we are more on safe ground here when it comes to potential risks in relation to the outlook here.

如果你看看 2023 年當前的 LVP 前景，我們在歐洲的銷量仍比 2017-2018 年低 25%，在北美，我們的銷量比 2017-2018 年低約 12%。所以我們是從低水平開始的。我們仍處於相對較低的水平。我認為，就生產水平而言，基本需求與當前前景之間的差異讓我感到相對安慰，因為當涉及到與前景相關的潛在風險時，我們處於更安全的基礎上。

So we also, I would say, the conservative view we have here relative to S&P's number here, I think we stand confidently on those LVP levels that we are using here for our own forecast.

因此，我想說，相對於標準普爾的數據，我們對此持保守觀點，我認為我們對我們在這裡用於自己預測的 LVP 水平充滿信心。

Now we're going to take our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Chris McNally from Evercore.

現在我們要回答下一個問題。下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Chris McNally。

I appreciate the details. So I'm just going to follow up on Emmanuel's question. If we step back and look at the beginning of the year, it sounds like from your comments, production trending 1%, maybe 2% better of what we know of UAW. Content per vehicle first half, 13%, 14%, sort of better than the 11% you're guiding implies some decel into the back half.

我很欣賞細節。所以我要跟進伊曼紐爾的問題。如果我們退後一步，看看今年年初，從您的評論來看，生產趨勢比我們對 UAW 的了解高出 1%，也許 2%。前半段每輛車的內容為 13%、14%，比您指導的 11% 好一些，這意味著後半段會有所減速。

I wanted to focus on what's been the negative development. So we know about the peso, maybe $60 million-or-so for the full year. Curious if there's anything else that's been a headwind from the beginning of the year because if not, it seems like there's some revenue upside that clearly would push you maybe towards the upper end of your margin targets?

我想把重點放在負面的發展上。所以我們知道比索全年的價值可能是 6000 萬美元左右。很好奇從今年年初開始是否還有其他不利因素，因為如果沒有，似乎有一些收入上升顯然會推動您達到利潤目標的上限？

Yes. I mean as you said, FX has been a headwind that has been larger than we had expected in initial of the year. You see here it's close to $20 million in the quarter after a negative was in the first quarter. $15 million of that $19 million is a negative transactional effect from the peso alone, so quite significant for us.

是的。我的意思是，正如您所說，外匯一直是一個逆風，其規模比我們年初的預期要大。您可以看到，在第一季度出現負數之後，本季度的收入接近 2000 萬美元。這 1,900 萬美元中的 1,500 萬美元是比索帶來的負面交易影響，對我們來說意義重大。

And from what I can see here from how the peso is moving right now, there's not an indication that, that is improving for us. So that is one component. And then we've also had some supply chain issues; even though the overall situation continues to improve, we did have 2 isolated cases, one with a fire at one of our suppliers in Europe and then some capacity issues with the larger supplier for us in North America, and they also impacted the quarter here, not so much in premium freight, but in efficiencies in our setup and our productivity levels in the plants and also a huge workload here to then move the volumes to other suppliers during the quarter.

從我現在看到的比索走勢來看，沒有跡象表明這對我們來說正在改善。所以這是一個組成部分。然後我們還遇到了一些供應鏈問題；儘管整體情況持續改善，但我們確實遇到了兩個孤立的案例，其中一個是我們在歐洲的一家供應商發生火災，然後是我們在北美的一家較大供應商的產能問題，它們也對本季度產生了影響，不是在優質貨運方面，而是在我們的設置效率和工廠生產力水平方面，以及在本季度將貨物轉移到其他供應商的巨大工作量方面。

So yes, we've also had some headwinds here. And the FX part, we don't think that our estimate here is based on exchange rates as of end of May and that would then imply that there's a continued headwind also from exchange rates for the rest of the year.

所以，是的，我們在這裡也遇到了一些阻力。至於外匯部分，我們認為我們的估計並非基於截至 5 月底的匯率，這意味著今年剩餘時間匯率也將持續面臨阻力。

That's very helpful, particularly on the idiosyncratic supply issues in Q2. So the second question I have is more macro around some of your comments on [EU caution] scheduled in second half. There definitely is a little bit of this mix message out there from the European OEMs about some "order weakness." I think we all see the German French order data out there.

這非常有幫助，特別是在第二季度特殊的供應問題上。因此，我的第二個問題是更宏觀的，圍繞您對下半年安排的[歐盟謹慎]的一些評論。歐洲原始設備製造商肯定會發出一些關於“訂單疲軟”的混合信息。我想我們都看到了德國法國的訂單數據。

But I think what's sort of perplexing for -- at least from my side is we had those comments in Q1 as well. The backlog has weakened through Q4 to Q1. But if you look, whether it's sales, regs, they improved from Q1 to Q2, orders tend to convert in 2 to 3 months and also about restocking, it looks like sales and production trending at plus 10%.

但我認為令人困惑的是——至少在我看來，我們在第一季度也有這些評論。從第四季度到第一季度，積壓訂單有所減弱。但如果你看一下，無論是銷售、法規，從第一季度到第二季度都有所改善，訂單往往會在 2 到 3 個月內轉化，而且關於補貨，看起來銷售和生產趨勢在+ 10%。

So can you just help put a little bit of color to this idea of order weakness because it seems like a little bit of bogeyman argument thrown out by the OEMs. I mean obviously, the consumer is weak in Europe, but we just don't see it in the regs in Q2.

那麼，您能否幫助為訂單疲軟的想法增添一點色彩，因為這似乎是原始設備製造商拋出的一點妖怪論點。我的意思是，顯然，歐洲的消費者疲軟，但我們在第二季度的法規中沒有看到這一點。

No. And I think as I said here, I mean, from our horizon, there is nothing that indicates the weakness you're referring to there. And of course, difficult to comment to what you have heard from the OEMs here.

不。我認為正如我在這裡所說的，我的意思是，從我們的視野來看，沒有任何東西表明你所指的弱點。當然，很難對您從原始設備製造商那裡聽到的消息發表評論。

But I can only say what we said here about our own perspectives here, and that is that we feel comfortable with the outlook we have for the rest of the year here getting to the organic sales growth here of around 15% for the full year, and we have nothing else to say around that.

但我只能說我們在這裡所說的關於我們自己的觀點，那就是我們對今年剩餘時間的前景感到滿意，全年有機銷售增長率約為 15%，對此我們沒有其他可說的。

Now we're going to take our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

現在我們要回答下一個問題。下一個問題來自富國銀行的科林·蘭根 (Colin Langan)。

On the structural cost reduction plan, the slides today say it's $75 million. I just want to clarify, is that just for the 1,000 that were announced this week? And so there would be more related to the full 11%, which I think is around 8,006 direct to indirect workers? Or is that actually the whole plan just to make sure I'm comparing that...

關於結構性成本削減計劃，今天的幻燈片顯示該計劃為 7500 萬美元。我只是想澄清一下，這只是本周宣布的 1,000 名嗎？因此，與全部 11%（我認為大約有 8,006 名直接間接工人）相關的情況會更多嗎？或者這實際上是整個計劃只是為了確保我正在比較......

No, this is only what has been communicated so far with the last announcement we made here related to the 1,100 and the $100 million associated restructuring costs with that. And then you have the expected phasing here of the savings that go in hand with that. So there's more to come. We have booked around half of the restructuring costs that we would expect for a total program at this point.

不，這只是我們在此發布的最新公告中所傳達的內容，涉及 1,100 美元以及與之相關的 1 億美元重組成本。然後你就可以看到與此相關的節省的預期階段。所以還有更多的事情要做。目前，我們已經預訂了整個計劃的重組成本的大約一半。

Got it. So $75 million is the savings of just 1,100 workers, but the total plan is going to be close to 8,000 workers. Is that right? Or I have -- is that incorrect?

知道了。因此，7500 萬美元只是 1,100 名工人的節省，但總計劃將接近 8,000 名工人。是對的嗎？或者我有——這是不正確的嗎？

It's 2,000 indirect or salaried and then 6,000 to restore our productivity in -- on the direct labor side. And the 1,100 that we mentioned now, and the first step is -- majority is indirect. It's also a smaller part of direct labor. So there's more to come in further steps. But as I said, the restructuring cost we expect for the total program, we are about halfway through on that.

這是 2,000 間接或帶薪工資，然後是 6,000 來恢復我們的生產力——在直接勞動力方面。我們現在提到的 1,100 個，第一步是——多數是間接的。這也是直接勞動力的一小部分。因此，下一步還有更多工作要做。但正如我所說，我們預計整個計劃的重組成本大約已完成一半。

Okay. And then just going back to the recoveries. Any color on how much or what percent are completed at this point? And how much is sort of left to go? I think in the past, it (inaudible) nearly 50%, 60% or where do you kind of stand now?

好的。然後回到恢復。有什麼顏色可以說明此時完成了多少或百分比嗎？還剩下多少？我認為過去（聽不清）接近 50%、60%，或者你現在處於什麼位置？

No, I can't give you a number on that as we are in ongoing discussions with our customers here. But what we can say is that we have compensation with basically all the customers here. So it's a new way of working here in this environment, and we are taking it step by step here and we are engaged in dialogues around all the different components here that we have talked about with all our customers. So we are progressing according to our plan here.

不，我無法向您提供具體數字，因為我們正在與客戶進行持續討論。但我們可以說的是，我們基本上對這裡所有的客戶都有補償。因此，這是在這種環境下的一種新的工作方式，我們正在一步一步地採取這種方式，並且我們正在圍繞我們與所有客戶討論過的所有不同組件進行對話。所以我們正在按照我們的計劃進行。

Now we're going to take our next question. The next question comes from the line of Michael Jacks from Bank of America.

現在我們要回答下一個問題。下一個問題來自美國銀行的邁克爾·傑克斯。

Just 1 or 2 follow-ups on the restructuring topic. Just to be clear, so if the roughly $100 million that you've just booked equates to half of the total restructuring cost. The indication then is that you're actually headed for an outcome which is closer to a 1-year payback period within that [1 to 2] bracket that you initially announced?

關於重組主題只有一兩個後續行動。需要明確的是，如果您剛剛預訂的大約 1 億美元相當於重組總成本的一半。那麼這表明您實際上正在走向接近您最初宣布的 [1 到 2] 範圍內的 1 年投資回收期的結果？

And then just to clarify on timing, at the CMD, I got the impression that the restructuring program would contribute quite significantly more to the 2024 earnings outlook. I had penciled in somewhere closer to, I think, $75 million to $100 million. Can you just help us to understand a little bit more on the timing and the sequencing or the sequencing around how the restructuring process is likely to follow from here? And then just 1 final question, if I may, on pricing. How much did price contribute to organic growth in Q2?

然後為了澄清時間安排，在 CMD，我得到的印像是重組計劃將對 2024 年盈利前景做出相當大的貢獻。我認為，我的預算接近 7500 萬至 1 億美元。您能否幫助我們更多地了解重組過程可能如何進行的時間安排和順序？如果可以的話，最後一個問題是關於定價的。價格對第二季度有機增長的貢獻有多大？

Yes. The second question, again, we will not provide any further breakdown here on what the pricing component was or the price compensations or cost compensation that we got in the quarter.

是的。第二個問題，我們不會在這裡提供任何有關定價組成部分或我們在本季度獲得的價格補償或成本補償的進一步細目。

But on your first question, so we took $109 million in restructuring charge in the quarter. And as I indicated, we -- this is around halfway through of what we think that the total cost for the program will be. Now the steps that we don't announce in the first, with this announcement, there are 2 site closures included here or planned site closures, 1 in Germany and 1 in the U.K., and they have, by nature, say, a longer payback time.

但關於你的第一個問題，我們在本季度收取了 1.09 億美元的重組費用。正如我所指出的，我們——這大約是我們認為該計劃總成本的一半。現在，我們首先沒有宣布的步驟，通過此公告，這裡包括 2 個站點關閉或計劃關閉，1 個在德國，1 個在英國，而且它們本質上有更長的投資回收期。

And still with that, we expect that we have a savings profile here of $25 million next year, $55 million the year after and then a run rate of $75 million. The cash outflow we expect around $50 million next year and then around $40 million the year after. So the payback time if you related to the cash outflow is in the 1- to 2-year range that we have given. And then we will communicate the next steps here when they are ready to be communicated and then provide also further details when we communicate those steps.

儘管如此，我們預計明年的節省額為 2500 萬美元，後年為 5500 萬美元，運行率為 7500 萬美元。我們預計明年的現金流出約為 5000 萬美元，後年約為 4000 萬美元。因此，如果涉及現金流出，投資回收期在我們給出的 1 到 2 年範圍內。然後，當準備好傳達後續步驟時，我們將在此處傳達後續步驟，然後在傳達這些步驟時提供進一步的詳細信息。

Now we're going to take our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Mattias Holmberg from DNB Markets.

現在我們要回答下一個問題。下一個問題來自 DNB Markets 的 Mattias Holmberg。

First of all, I would just like to clarify on Björn's earlier question. I just want to make sure that I heard you right that you said that a larger share of the price negotiated this year were lumped some compensations and last year more on the permanent price adjustment side?

首先，我想澄清一下 Björn 之前提出的問題。我只是想確保我沒聽錯，你說今年談判的價格中有很大一部分是補償性的，而去年則更多是永久性價格調整方面的？

And if that was the case, what does this mean in terms of stickiness of these price increases? I mean assuming the inflation is sticky, would that mean you will need to sort of renegotiate to get further lump compensations?

如果是這樣的話，這對價格上漲的粘性意味著什麼？我的意思是假設通貨膨脹是粘性的，這是否意味著您需要重新談判以獲得進一步的一次性補償？

Yes. As I said here, I mean, this is a little bit the new way of working together with our customers here as we are in this current, let's call it, inflationary environment here. And I think it's very important to remember also that, of course, what we're trying to do here and are doing is to mirroring the balance between the impact from our suppliers and our customers.

是的。正如我在這裡所說的，我的意思是，這是與我們的客戶合作的一種新方式，因為我們正處於當前的通貨膨脹環境中。我認為非常重要的是要記住，當然，我們在這裡試圖做的和正在做的事情是反映我們的供應商和客戶的影響之間的平衡。

So of course, when we say we have a lump sum compensation with our customers, we also have a lump sum consideration with our suppliers. So depending on what the type of compensation we get, it's following, of course, in both sides of our P&L statement here. So that's the important thing for us is to keep this balance correctly.

當然，當我們說我們對客戶有一次性補償時，我們也對供應商有一次性補償。因此，根據我們獲得的補償類型，當然，它會出現在我們的損益表的兩側。所以對我們來說重要的是正確保持這種平衡。

And I would say that also, it depends on the type of approach the different customer has, but just because it's lump sum, it doesn't mean that it's less stable versus a piece price per se because you can say, some have this as an operating model structure, and we come back to it, and it's a very natural part of discussions. If you have a piece price, of course, that also depending on what the reason for the piece price adjustments, it has some flexibility in that also when the reason comes down, so to speak.

我還要說的是，這取決於不同客戶採用的方法類型，但僅僅因為它是一次性付款，並不意味著它與計件價格本身相比不太穩定，因為你可以說，有些人將此作為運營模型結構，我們回到它，這是討論的一個非常自然的部分。當然，如果你有計件價格，那也取決於計件價格調整的原因，可以說，當原因下降時，它也具有一定的靈活性。

So I should not be spending too much time on the question around lump sum piece price here because it's the overall balance that is the important part here, and that's something we are keeping a lot of focus on, of course.

因此，我不應該在這里花太多時間討論一次性計件價格的問題，因為總體平衡是這裡的重要部分，當然，這是我們非常關注的事情。

Yes. That's clear. A quick second one, if I may. At the Capital Markets Day, you said, I think, you had about $900 million in capacity for shareholder returns this year. Do you still think this number is relevant or realistic? And can you tell us anything more to kind of us understand better why the run rate of the buybacks are quite far off this level?

是的。很清楚。如果可以的話，請快速講第二個。在資本市場日，您說，我認為您今年有大約 9 億美元的股東回報能力。您仍然認為這個數字相關或現實嗎？您能否告訴我們更多信息，以便我們更好地理解為什麼回購的運行率與這個水平相差甚遠？

What we wanted to illustrate with that calculation was more at the balance sheet capacity that we would have in place. But it was not any type of indication what we would buy back this year or any commitment in that sense. So it was just to show if we deliver on our -- the guidance here for the year, what that would -- what that could mean in terms of capacity for share buybacks. But we are committed to the $1.5 billion mandate that we have. But again, this is -- that is not also a guidance or anything. It's simply an authorization that we have from our Board that we are -- that we can buy back up to $1.5 billion until the end of next year.

我們想通過該計算來說明更多的是我們現有的資產負債表容量。但這並不是任何類型的跡象表明我們今年將回購什麼或在這個意義上做出任何承諾。因此，這只是為了表明我們是否兌現了今年的指導，這對股票回購能力意味著什麼。但我們致力於履行我們所擁有的 15 億美元的授權。但同樣，這也不是指導或任何東西。這只是我們從董事會獲得的一項授權——我們可以在明年年底之前回購最多 15 億美元。

We're going to take our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Dan Levy from Barclays.

我們將回答下一個問題。下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Dan Levy。

I wanted to just first ask, with the improved environment and reduced call-offs and better stability, you mentioned that your operating leverage was in line with the typical operating leverage you said, and there was some -- that was partially driven by recoveries. But now that we have this very improved environment, to what extent could we see you at the upper end of that typical 20% to 30% operating leverage? And how long is the runway on maintaining potentially a higher incremental margin?

我想首先問一下，隨著環境的改善、取消的減少和穩定性的提高，您提到您的運營槓桿與您所說的典型運營槓桿一致，並且有一些 - 部分是由複蘇驅動的。但現在我們的環境已得到很大改善，我們可以在多大程度上看到您處於典型的 20% 至 30% 運營槓桿的上限？保持更高的增量利潤率還有多長的路要走？

Yes. I mean as I indicated during the presentation, if you adjust for FX and then the patent settlement we had last year, the benefit of that from last year, we were in the middle of the 20% to 30% range. And one component that does not allow us to pull through a higher leverage rate is the fact that we don't get any margin on the cost compensation we get from our customers. I mean these negotiations are very much around the structure or the inflationary costs that have impacted us. And that's what we're putting on the table, but we very rarely get a margin upside on those costs. If you would adjust for, say, that lack of margin on the compensation, we will even be closer to 30% on the leverage side.

是的。我的意思是，正如我在演講中指出的那樣，如果您對外匯進行調整，然後對我們去年的專利和解進行調整，從去年的好處來看，我們處於 20% 到 30% 範圍的中間。不允許我們實現更高槓桿率的一個因素是，我們從客戶那裡獲得的成本補償沒有獲得任何利潤。我的意思是，這些談判很大程度上圍繞著影響我們的結構或通脹成本。這就是我們提出的方案，但我們很少能在這些成本上獲得利潤上行。如果你對薪酬方面缺乏保證金的情況進行調整，我們的槓桿率甚至會接近 30%。

Is that type of level -- and I realize there's going to be some lumpiness around the recoveries. But is that type of level something that's sustainable for the foreseeable future or that's sort of unique to this particular period?

就是這種水平嗎？我意識到復蘇過程中會出現一些波動。但這種水平在可預見的未來是可持續的，還是這個特定時期獨有的？

I mean I think it goes back to many discussions we've had around this topic. A lot depends on the type of volume growth that we face. I mean if it's an LVP and market growth, then we just grow into our existing footprint and capacity, then it would be at the higher end of that range. If it is through launches and market share, then it is at the lower end of the range.

我的意思是，我認為這可以追溯到我們圍繞這個主題進行的許多討論。很大程度上取決於我們面臨的銷量增長類型。我的意思是，如果這是 LVP 和市場增長，那麼我們只需增長現有的足跡和產能，那麼它將處於該範圍的高端。如果通過發布和市場份額來衡量，那麼它處於該範圍的下限。

And as you can -- we indicated here that we have a record level of launches this year, and we also expect a larger contribution from market share gains this year, which would then indicate that the leverage of that volume is at the lower end of the range.

正如您所言，我們在此指出，今年的發布水平創歷史新高，我們還預計今年市場份額的增長將做出更大的貢獻，這將表明該數量的槓桿率處於該範圍的下限。

And as a follow-up, I'd just like to dig in on the OpEx. Your SG&A and R&D are both rising, but as a percent of sales, that ratio is coming down. How should we think about the SG&A and R&D going forward? Your release talked about increased personnel projects for SG&A. Presumably you're going to have some offsets from the headcount reductions. But what should we think about for the trajectory of SG&A and R&D?

作為後續行動，我想深入探討一下運營支出。你們的 SG&A 和 R&D 都在上升，但作為銷售額的百分比，這個比率正在下降。我們應該如何考慮未來的SG&A 和研發？您的新聞稿談到了 SG&A 人事項目的增加。想必您會因裁員而獲得一些補償。但對於 SG&A 和 R&D 的軌跡，我們應該思考什麼？

Yes. I mean I think we could display already that compared to the first quarter, you've seen a sequential improvement, and we are very focused here on controlling both the SG&A and RD&E costs also going forward. And yes, also the headcount reductions we're doing, as we're indicating where we're looking at all levels in the company, all functions, that would also have an impact then on SG&A and RD&E going forward.

是的。我的意思是，我認為我們已經可以表明，與第一季度相比，您已經看到了連續的改善，而且我們非常注重控制未來的 SG&A 和 RD&E 成本。是的，我們正在削減員工人數，因為我們正在表明我們正在關注公司各個級別、所有職能部門，這也會對未來的銷售、管理和管理 (SG&A) 和研發與評估 (RD&E) 產生影響。

And the increases we've seen so far has been very much also inflation driven on the labor cost side and to some extent, also higher headcount to support the volume growth.

到目前為止，我們看到的增長很大程度上也是勞動力成本方面的通貨膨脹驅動的，在某種程度上，也是支持銷量增長的員工人數增加。

Revenue, should we expect that percent to decline presumably?

收入，我們是否應該預期該百分比會下降？

Well, as I said, we are very focused here on the cost side. You've seen that as a percent of revenue, it has improved sequentially. And yes, we're focused on the costs in the company. So yes. Could improve.

嗯，正如我所說，我們非常關注成本方面。您已經看到，作為收入的百分比，它已經連續改善。是的，我們關注的是公司的成本。所以是的。可以改進。

Now we're going to take our next question. And the next question comes from the line of Rod Lache from Wolfe Research.

現在我們要回答下一個問題。下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的 Rod Lache。

I appreciate the indication of the Q3 and Q4 margins that you provided on Slide 5. And it sounds like there are lump sum payments of some kind in those Q3 and Q4 margins, but they should be viewed kind of as recurring lumps, kind of like a surcharge for costs at these levels. I guess I'm just wanting to clarify, are you basically saying that you now have a mechanism for passing along a broader scope of costs going forward? And is there any part of these expectations for Q3 and Q4 that are, in fact, retroactive adjustments? So we shouldn't extrapolate from the level of margin that you're specifically expecting in the second half?

我很欣賞您在幻燈片 5 上提供的第三季度和第四季度利潤的指示。聽起來第三季度和第四季度的利潤中存在某種一次性付款，但它們應該被視為經常性的一次性付款，有點像這些水平的成本附加費。我想我只是想澄清一下，你基本上是說你現在有一個機制可以轉移更廣泛的成本嗎？對第三季度和第四季度的預期是否有任何部分實際上是追溯調整？所以我們不應該根據您具體預期的下半年利潤水平來推斷？

No, there is elements of retroactiveness there, yes. And the question about lump sum or piece price is not a big question regarding the Q3, Q4 balance, if we call it that. Because, I mean, regardless if it's a piece price or lump sum, it takes place when it takes place based on when the negotiations are concluded and have the same quarter effect, so to speak. So that's not really the driver.

不，那裡有追溯性的因素，是的。關於總價或計件價格的問題對於第三季度、第四季度的餘額（如果我們這麼說的話）來說並不是一個大問題。因為，我的意思是，無論是計件價格還是包乾價格，它都是根據談判結束的時間發生的，並且具有相同的季度效果，可以這麼說。所以那不是真正的司機。

The driver is more -- it is when we conclude the negotiations regardless if it's a piece price or lump sum. Then on the -- some recurring of the lump sum, you could say that, I mean, we are developing a way of working together with our customers here, but it's still a question around evidence-driven negotiations, so to speak.

驅動因素更多——這是我們結束談判的時候，無論是計件價格還是一次性總價。然後，關於一次性付款的一些重複出現，你可以說，我的意思是，我們正在開發一種與這裡的客戶合作的方式，但這仍然是一個圍繞證據驅動的談判的問題，可以這麼說。

So that's why it takes a long time also in terms of calendar time here because we are going through the various impacts that occurred basically on a plant and a component level. So that is what's taking the time. But you could say, it's a small discussion as we have now been practicing this for a while.

這就是為什麼這裡的日曆時間也需要很長時間，因為我們正在經歷基本上在工廠和組件級別上發生的各種影響。這就是需要時間的原因。但你可以說，這只是一個小討論，因為我們已經練習了一段時間了。

Okay. Can you give us any indication of the extent to which the back half includes retroactive kind of out-of-period gains? I'm just asking because you might look at these numbers and say that it's pretty impressive and at least supportive of these longer-term targets or midterm targets that you've been talking about at an 85 million unit production rate. But can we look at those as indicative of the run rate profitability or just any indication of what is out of period?

好的。您能否告訴我們後半段在多大程度上包含追溯性期外收益？我只是問這個問題，因為您可能會看到這些數字並說這是相當令人印象深刻的，並且至少支持您一直在談論的 8500 萬單位生產率的長期目標或中期目標。但我們是否可以將這些視為運行率盈利能力的指標，或者只是表明什麼是過時的指標？

No, I think it's really the full year -- I mean the conclusion of the full year that really speaks to it because I think the important thing here is that we have this development according to our plan, and we are gradually seeing the improvement when you look back. So I mean, of course, on a 12 months rolling, it is giving you some indications there. But I think it's too difficult to draw too many conclusions on the Q3, Q4 prioritization here, so to speak.

不，我認為這確實是全年——我的意思是全年的結論，這才真正說明了這一點，因為我認為這裡重要的是我們按照我們的計劃進行了這一發展，當你回顧過去時，我們正在逐漸看到改進。所以我的意思是，當然，在 12 個月的滾動中，它給了你一些跡象。但我認為在這裡很難對第三季度、第四季度的優先順序得出太多結論。

Okay. And just lastly, the pace of buybacks so far have been progressing somewhat slowly just relative to the $1.5 billion authorization. Can you just give us any thoughts on how you're thinking about that? And how -- whether that $1.5 billion through the end of next year is a magnitude that is indicative of something? Or I guess, how are you going to make the decision about the magnitude of buybacks going forward?

好的。最後，相對於 15 億美元的授權，迄今為止的回購步伐進展有些緩慢。您能告訴我們您對此有何想法嗎？到明年年底，這 15 億美元的規模是否具有某種象徵意義？或者我猜，您將如何決定未來回購的規模？

I mean it's the same as we have reported so far. I think, I mean, we are moving forward with our program here. And as Fredrik has said here, and we also said at Investor Day here in June is that we are committed to this program. And I think what Fredrik tried to show here and also reiterated here is our ability to generate liquidity to progress with this plan and what we need to consider here, of course, is also how the world around us is developing. And that is, of course, looking back to when this program was launched and where we are now, and the last year and 2 years have been quite volatile and challenging.

我的意思是，這與我們迄今為止報導的相同。我想，我的意思是，我們正在推進我們的計劃。正如 Fredrik 在這裡所說的，以及我們在 6 月份的投資者日上所說的，我們致力於該計劃。我認為弗雷德里克試圖在這裡展示並在這裡重申的是我們產生流動性以推進該計劃的能力，當然，我們在這裡需要考慮的也是我們周圍的世界正在如何發展。當然，回顧這個計劃的啟動時間和我們現在的情況，過去的一年和兩年是相當不穩定和充滿挑戰的。

And of course, we have continued with the program, but with some cautiousness considering all the different parameters that were alluded to before here. And as we move forward, we will continue to assess that. But we are having high ambitions when it comes to this. And I think what we have shown here today with our cash flow generation and also our outlook gives us a good basis for continuing here with good progress.

當然，我們繼續執行該計劃，但考慮到之前提到的所有不同參數，我們持謹慎態度。隨著我們的前進，我們將繼續評估這一點。但我們對此抱有遠大的抱負。我認為我們今天在這裡展示的現金流生成和前景為我們繼續取得良好進展奠定了良好的基礎。

Dear participants, thank you very much for all your questions today. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Mikael Bratt, for any closing remarks.

尊敬的參與者，非常感謝您今天提出的所有問題。現在我想將會議交給發言人米凱爾·布拉特 (Mikael Bratt) 發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, Nadia. Before we end today's call, I would like to say that we are continuing to execute on productivity and cost reduction activities. Our actions are creating both short-term and long-term improvements as is visible from the steps we took in the second quarter.

謝謝你，納迪亞。在結束今天的電話會議之前，我想說我們將繼續執行提高生產力和降低成本的活動。從我們在第二季度採取的步驟可以看出，我們的行動正在創造短期和長期的改進。

Together with the announced accelerated structural cost reductions, we believe these actions will enable us to build an even stronger position long term. Autoliv continues to focus on our vision of saving more lives, which is our most important direct contribution to a sustainable society.

加上宣布的加速結構性成本削減，我們相信這些行動將使我們能夠建立更強大的長期地位。奧托立夫繼續專注於拯救更多生命的願景，這是我們對可持續社會最重要的直接貢獻。

Our third quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, October 20, 2023. Thank you, everyone, for participating in today's call. We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv and until next time, stay safe.

我們的第三季度財報電話會議定於 2023 年 10 月 20 日星期五舉行。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們真誠地感謝您對奧托立夫的持續關注，下次之前請注意安全。

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.

我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。你們現在可以斷開連接了。祝你今天過得愉快。