Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Autoliv Third Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions). Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加奧托立夫 2023 年第三季財務業績電話會議。 （操作員說明）。請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Anders Trapp.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人安德斯·特拉普 (Anders Trapp)。

Thank you, Sandra. Welcome, everyone, to our third quarter 2023 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin; and Me Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations. During today's earnings call, Mikael and Fredrik will, among other things, provide an overview of the strong sales, earnings and cash flow development we had in the third quarter, the structural cost reduction activities that we are doing to secure our long- and medium-term competitiveness and our updated full year indications as well as provide an update on our general and business and market conditions.

謝謝你，桑德拉。歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。出席本次電話會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Mikael Bratt；以及我們的財務長 Fredrik Westin；我和投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。在今天的財報電話會議上，Mikael 和 Fredrik 將概述我們第三季度的強勁銷售、盈利和現金流發展，以及我們為確保長期和中期業績而採取的結構性成本削減活動。- 長期競爭力和我們更新的全年指標，以及提供我們的整體狀況、業務和市場狀況的最新資訊。

We will then remain available to respond to your questions. And as usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com. Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference some non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical gain with non-US GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly press release that is available on autoliv.com and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC. And lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 p.m. Central European Time. So please follow a limit of questions per person.

然後我們將隨時回答您的問題。像往常一樣，這些幻燈片可以在 autoliv.com 上找到。轉到下一張投影片。我們有安全港聲明，它是本簡報的組成部分，並包括隨後的問答。在演示過程中，我們將參考一些非美國公認會計準則衡量標準。歷史收益與非美國公認會計準則衡量標準的調節已在我們的季度新聞稿（可在 autoliv.com 上取得）以及將向 SEC 提交的 10-Q 報告中揭露。最後，我應該要提到，本次電話會議預計將於下午 3:00 結束。中歐時間。因此，請遵守每人的問題限制。

I will now hand over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

現在我將把工作交給我們的執行長 Mikael Bratt。

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. Our performance continued to improve substantially in the third quarter. First, I would like to thank our employees for their great contributions to the third quarter results and the efforts to further strengthen our near- and medium-term competitiveness. Our organic sales grew double digits, outperforming light vehicle production significantly, especially in Asia. The strong growth was mainly a result of higher than expected light vehicle production, product launches and customer compensations for inflationary pressure. The adjusted operating income was a new record for a third quarter since the Veoneer spinoff. We generated a broad-based improvement in key areas, including gross and operating margins both year-over-year and sequentially.

謝謝你，安德斯。看下一張投影片。第三季我們的業績持續大幅改善。首先，我要感謝我們的員工為第三季業績做出的巨大貢獻以及為進一步增強我們中短期競爭力所做的努力。我們的有機銷售量成長了兩位數，顯著超過了輕型汽車產量，尤其是在亞洲。強勁成長主要得益於輕型汽車產量高於預期、產品推出以及消費者對通膨壓力的補償。調整後的營業收入創下了 Veoneer 分拆以來第三季的新紀錄。我們在關鍵領域實現了廣泛的改善，包括同比和環比的毛利率和營業利潤率。

Our cash flow was strong, and the debt leverage remained well within our target range. While we maintained our dividend and almost tripled the (inaudible) repurchase compared to the second quarter. We are making progress towards our intention of reducing our indirect workforce by up to 2,000. We have now detailed a large part of our structural cost reduction actions, including optimization of the company's geographic footprint and organization. The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration has issued a new initial decision to recall 52 million airbag inflators benefited by our competitor, ARC. Autoliv estimate that less than 10% of the indemnified inflators were included in airbag modules that Autoliv supplied to customers after Autoliv acquired certain Delphi assets in 2009.

我們的現金流強勁，債務槓桿率仍然在我們的目標範圍內。雖然我們維持了股息，但與第二季相比，回購數量幾乎增加了兩倍（聽不清楚）。我們正在朝著減少最多 2,000 名間接員工的目標取得進展。我們現在已經詳細說明了結構性成本削減行動的很大一部分，包括優化公司的地理足跡和組織。美國國家公路運輸安全管理局已發布一項新的初步決定，召回 5,200 萬個安全氣囊充氣機，這些安全氣囊充氣機均受益於我們的競爭對手 ARC。奧托立夫估計，在 2009 年奧托立夫收購德爾福的某些資產後，奧托立夫向客戶提供的安全氣囊模組中包含了不到 10% 的受賠償充氣機。

Autoliv is not aware of any performance issues regarding the ARC inflators included with its airbags. At this stage, it is too early to talk about any replacement plan. We are, of course, prepared to support our customers with replacement products. The light vehicle production in 2023 is now expected to develop slightly better than expected, and we have therefore increased our full year organic sales indications in line with this. We expect fourth quarter adjusted operating margin to improve by 1.5 to 2 percentage points compared to last year in line with the previously communicated improvement pattern. Additionally, we expect the ongoing reorganization of our global functions and European operations to turn lower tax rate for 2023 than previously anticipated. These changes are also expected to reduce our normalized tax rate from 2024 and onwards to a range of 25% to 30%.

Autoliv 尚未發現其安全氣囊中的 ARC 充氣機有任何性能問題。現階段談論任何替代方案還為時過早。當然，我們準備好透過替換產品來支援我們的客戶。目前預計 2023 年輕型汽車產量的發展將略好於預期，因此我們相應提高了全年有機銷售指標。我們預期第四季調整後營業利潤率將比去年提高 1.5 至 2 個百分點，與先前通報的改善模式一致。此外，我們預計我們的全球職能和歐洲業務正在進行的重組將使 2023 年的稅率低於先前的預期。這些變化預計也將從 2024 年起將我們的標準化稅率降低至 25% 至 30%。

Now looking at the significant sequential cost improvements on the next slide. Year-to-date, we have generated a broad-based improvement in key areas, both year-over-year and sequentially. On this slide, we highlight the sequential improvements. In the third quarter, we continued to actively address our cost base while negotiating with our customers to secure pricing and other compensations that reflect the high inflation. Our labor efficiency continues to trend up, supported by the implementation of our strategic initiatives, including automation digitalization. Our gross margin improved by 270 basis points compared to the first quarter and by 90 basis points from the second quarter.

現在看看下一張投影片上顯著的連續成本改進。今年迄今為止，我們在關鍵領域取得了廣泛的進步，無論是同比還是環比。在這張投影片上，我們重點介紹了連續的改進。第三季度，我們繼續積極解決成本基礎問題，同時與客戶進行談判，以確保反映高通膨的定價和其他補償。在自動化數位化等策略性措施實施的支持下，我們的勞動效率持續上升。與第一季相比，我們的毛利率提高了 270 個基點，比第二季提高了 90 個基點。

This is mainly a result of the higher labor efficiency and customer (inaudible). The positive trend for RD&E and SG&A in relation to sales, have continued and are now lined by 130 basis points since Q1. Combined with the gross margin improvements, this led to a substantially improvement in adjusted operating margin. Looking now on financials in more detail on the next slide. Sales increased by 13%, mainly due to new focus, higher prices and favorable currency translation effects. The strong sales increase and cost reduction activities led to a substantially through substantial improvement in adjusted operating income. Excluding effects of capacity alignment and antitrust-related matters, adjusted operating income increased by more than 40% to SEK 243 million from USD 103 million last year.

這主要是由於更高的勞動效率和客戶（聽不清楚）。與銷售相關的 RD&E 和 SG&A 的正面趨勢仍在繼續，自第一季以來目前已上升 130 個基點。加上毛利率的提高，調整後的營業利益率也大幅提高。現在在下一張投影片中更詳細地了解財務狀況。銷售額成長 13%，主要得益於新的焦點、更高的價格和有利的貨幣換算效應。強勁的銷售成長和成本削減活動導致調整後營業收入大幅改善。排除產能調整和反壟斷相關問題的影響，調整後營業收入從去年的 1.03 億美元成長了 40% 以上，達到 2.43 億瑞典克朗。

The adjusted operating margin, 9.4% in the quarter, an increase by close to 2 percentage points from the same period last year and by over 4 percentage points from the first quarter. Operating cash flow was USD 202 million, which was USD 30 million lower than the same period last year. The main reason for the lower cash flow was the unusual strong cash flow last year, which was related to timing effects of customer recoveries.

本季調整後營業利益率為9.4%，較去年同期成長近2個百分點，較一季成長逾4個百分點。營運現金流為2.02億美元，比去年同期減少0.30億美元。現金流量下降的主要原因是去年現金流量異常強勁，這與客戶恢復的時間效應有關。

Looking now on the limit impact of the UAW strike in North America on the next slide. The UAW strike in North America is in its fifth week. The impact Autoliv in Q3 was very limited. Our North American employees are supplemented by UAW, but we are indirectly impacted by lost sales and more unpredictable and volatile LVP. In First half '23 and the Detroit 3 North America accounted for around 30% of our global sales or 36% of our sales are in India. We estimate that we lost less than SEK 2 million in sales in October. As per October 19, the per week revenue hit from the assembly plant strike is around SEK 6 million.

現在在下一張投影片上看看北美聯合汽車工人工會罷工的有限影響。北美汽車工人聯合會罷工已進入第五週。奧托立夫第三季的影響非常有限。我們的北美員工得到了 UAW 的補充，但我們間接受到銷售損失以及更難以預測和波動的 LVP 的影響。 23 年上半年，底特律 3 北美賽約占我們全球銷售額的 30%，其中印度銷售額占我們銷售額的 36%。我們估計 10 月的銷售額損失不到 200 萬瑞典克朗。截至 10 月 19 日，裝配廠罷工造成的每週收入損失約為 600 萬瑞典克朗。

We have the developed bonds plan to the strike and build some inventory of components and finished products to support a quick ramp-up when the strike is over. At this point, it's difficult to estimate the full impact of the UAW strike on our fourth quarter sales and profitability. There are many unknown factors, including scope, length of action as well as potential recovery of lost volumes after the strike, but also possible sales increases for brands not affected by the strike actions. Our full year 2023 indications are based on the assumption that the UAW strike is not prolonged beyond what is included in the S&P Global October outlook.

我們制定了針對罷工的債券計劃，並建立了一些零件和成品庫存，以支持罷工結束後的快速增加。目前，很難估計 UAW 罷工對我們第四季度銷售和盈利能力的全面影響。有許多未知因素，包括範圍、行動持續時間以及罷工後損失的銷售的潛在恢復，但未受罷工行動影響的品牌的銷售也可能增加。我們對 2023 年全年的預測是基於這樣的假設：UAW 罷工的時間不會超出標普全球 10 月展望中包含的時間。

Looking now on the announced structural cost reductions initiatives on the next slide. To secure our medium-term long competitiveness and to support our financial targets, we are accelerating our global structural cost reductions as previously communicated. This includes a substantial reduction of our global workforce with a particular focus on our European operations. These initiatives will continue to optimize our geographic footprint for a more effective structure while reducing costs and driving movement volume and cash flow.

現在來看看下一張投影片上宣布的結構性成本削減措施。為了確保我們的中期長期競爭力並支持我們的財務目標，我們正在加快先前溝通的全球結構性成本削減。這包括大幅減少我們的全球員工隊伍，特別是我們的歐洲業務。這些措施將繼續優化我們的地理足跡，形成更有效的結構，同時降低成本並推動運輸量和現金流。

We intend to simplify (inaudible) how we operate in all areas. The headcount reduction will affect people in our offices, technical centers and plants, including leadership positions at all levels. On July 13, we announced the first step of our planned reductions of around 1,100 indirect and direct employees. On October 5, we announced the reduction of 300 indirect employees in China, Japan, Sweden, and the United states and the closure of an office in Netherlands. These 4 steps are expected to reduce cost by around SEK 35 million in 2024, 65 million in 2025 and SEK 85 million when fully implemented.

我們打算簡化（聽不清楚）我們在所有領域的運作方式。裁員將影響我們辦公室、技術中心和工廠的人員，包括各級領導職位。 7 月 13 日，我們宣布了計劃裁減約 1,100 名間接和直接員工的第一步。 10月5日，我們宣佈在中國、日本、瑞典和美國裁減300名間接員工，並關閉荷蘭辦公室。這 4 個步驟預計將在 2024 年減少約 3,500 萬瑞典克朗的成本，到 2025 年減少 6,500 萬瑞典克朗的成本，全面實施後將減少 8,500 萬瑞典克朗的成本。

Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales increased to USD 2.6 billion, a record for the third quarter. This was close to USD 300 million or 13% higher than the year earlier, driven by price, volume and currencies. Out of the period cost compensations contributed with SEK 6 million. Out of period compensations are retroactive price adjustments and other compensations that mainly relate to first and second quarters and negotiated in the third quarter. Looking on the regional and statistics, Asia accounted for 40%, Americas for 35% and Europe for 25.

現在在下一張投影片中更詳細地了解我們的銷售成長。我們的綜合淨銷售額增至 26 億美元，創下第三季的紀錄。受價格、數量和貨幣的推動，這一數字接近 3 億美元，比上年同期增長 13%。期間成本補償貢獻了 600 萬瑞典克朗。期外補償是追溯價格調整和主要與第一和第二季相關並在第三季協商的其他補償。從地區和統計數據來看，亞洲佔40%，美洲佔35%，歐洲佔25%。

We outlined our organic sales growth compared to light vehicle production on the next slide. I am very pleased that our organic sales growth significantly outperformed global light vehicle production growth in the third quarter as we continued to execute on our strong order book. According to S&P Global, third quarter light vehicle production increased by close to 4% year-over-year. This was 7 percentage points higher than expected at the beginning of the quarter, with most of the higher-than-expected production coming from OEMs in China and OEMs in Eastern Europe.

我們在下一張幻燈片中概述了與輕型汽車產量相比的有機銷售成長。我非常高興的是，隨著我們繼續執行強勁的訂單，我們第三季的有機銷售成長明顯超過了全球輕型汽車產量成長。 S&P Global 的數據顯示，第三季輕型汽車產量年增近 4%。這比本季初的預期高出 7 個百分點，其中大部分高於預期的產量來自中國整車廠和東歐整車廠。

In the quarter, we outperformed global light vehicle production by around 7 percentage points. We outperformed in the rest of Asia by 15 percentage points, in Japan by 14 percentage points and in China by 6 percentage points. The performance in China was mainly driven by increasing sales to the fast-growing domestic Chinese OEMs. Our sales to this group outperformed light vehicle production with close to 30 points as we continue to deliver on the strong order book in China. We expect a positive year-over-year sales growth trend to continue into the fourth quarter.

本季度，我們的輕型汽車產量比全球輕型汽車產量高出約 7 個百分點。我們在亞洲其他地區的表現領先 15 個百分點，在日本領先 14 個百分點，在中國領先 6 個百分點。中國市場的業績主要受到快速成長的中國國內整車廠銷量增加的推動。由於我們繼續在中國交付強勁的訂單，我們對該集團的銷售表現比輕型汽車生產高出近 30 個百分點。我們預計第四季將繼續保持積極的同比銷售成長趨勢。

On the next slide, we see some key model launches from the third quarter. In the quarter, we had a high number of product launches, especially in China and Europe. The trend towards electrification is clear. With 6 models being available as electric version, 6 of the models shown on this slide have an Autoliv content per vehicle of around $300 or higher, with the highest at over USD 750. In terms of Autoliv sales potential, the BMW I-55 Series launch is the most significant. For the full year, we expect a record number of launches with high number in China, Europe and South Korea.

在下一張投影片中，我們看到第三季推出的一些關鍵型號。本季度，我們推出了大量產品，特別是在中國和歐洲。電氣化的趨勢很明顯。在 6 款電動版車型中，本幻燈片中顯示的 6 款車型每輛車的 Autoliv 含量約為 300 美元或更高，最高的超過 750 美元。就 Autoliv 銷售潛力而言，BMW I-55 系列發射是最重要的。我們預計全年的發布數量將創歷史新高，其中中國、歐洲和韓國的發布數量很高。

I will now hand it over to our CFO, Fredrik Westin, who will talk about the financials on the next few slides.

我現在將其交給我們的財務長 Fredrik Westin，他將在接下來的幾張投影片中討論財務狀況。

Thank you, Mikael. Slide highlights our key figures for the third quarter of 2023 compared to the third quarter of 2022. Our net sales were SEK 2.6 billion. This was a 13% increase. The gross profit increased by -- sorry, by SEK 82 million or by 21% to SEK 465 million, while the gross margin increased by 1.3 percentage points to 17.9%. The gross profit increase was primarily driven by price increases, volume growth, lower costs for material and premium freight. This was partly offset by increased costs for personnel related to volume growth and wage inflation. In the quarter, we made a total adjustment of $11 million to the operating income, of which SEK 10 million was for capacity alignments.

謝謝你，米凱爾。幻燈片突顯了我們 2023 年第三季與 2022 年第三季相比的關鍵數據。我們的淨銷售額為 26 億瑞典克朗。增幅為 13%。毛利增加了——抱歉，增加了 8,200 萬瑞典克朗或 21%，達到 4.65 億瑞典克朗，而毛利率增加了 1.3 個百分點，達到 17.9%。毛利的成長主要是由於價格上漲、銷售成長、材料成本下降和優質運費的推動。這部分被與銷售成長和薪資上漲相關的人員成本增加所抵銷。本季度，我們對營業收入進行了總計 1,100 萬美元的調整，其中 1,000 萬瑞典克朗用於產能調整。

The adjusted operating income increased from SEK 173 million to NOK 243 million, and the adjusted operating in Ag increased by 180 basis points to 9.4%. I will explain more when we go through the operating income bridge. Adjusted earnings per share diluted increased by $0.04, where the main drivers were $0.57 from higher adjusted operating income, partly offset by $0.10 from financial items and $0.07 from taxes. Our adjusted return on capital employed and return on equity increased to 25% and 21%, respectively. We paid a dividend of $0.66 per share in the quarter, and we repurchased and retired around 1.23 million shares for $120 million under our stock repurchase program.

調整後的營業收入從 1.73 億瑞典克朗增加到 2.43 億挪威克朗，調整後的 Ag 營業收入增加了 180 個基點，達到 9.4%。當我們通過營業收入橋樑時，我將進行更多解釋。調整後每股攤薄收益增加了 0.04 美元，其中主要驅動因素是調整後營業收入增加帶來的 0.57 美元，部分被金融項目 0.10 美元和稅收 0.07 美元所抵消。調整後的已動用資本報酬率和股本報酬率分別增加至 25% 和 21%。本季我們支付了每股 0.66 美元的股息，並根據股票回購計畫以 1.2 億美元的價格回購並退役了約 123 萬股股票。

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the third quarter of 2023, our adjusted operating income of SEK 243 million was SEK 70 million higher than the same quarter last year. Our operations were positively impacted by improved pricing and other customer compensations, higher volumes, lower cost for premium freight as well as our strategic initiatives that were partly offset by the significant headwinds from general cost inflation. The impact from raw material prices was limited. Out-of-period cost compensation was approximately SEK 6 million lower than during the same period last year. FX impacted the operating profit negatively by SEK 8 million. This was mainly a result of negative translation effects.

現在來看看下一張投影片上調整後的營業收入橋樑。 2023年第三季度，我們調整後的營業收入為2.43億瑞典克朗，比去年同期增加了7,000萬瑞典克朗。我們的業務受到定價和其他客戶補償的改善、銷售增加、優質貨運成本降低以及我們的策略舉措的積極影響，但總體成本通膨的重大不利因素部分抵消了這些舉措。原物料價格影響有限。期外成本補償比去年同期減少約 600 萬瑞典克朗。外匯對營業利潤產生了 800 萬瑞典克朗的負面影響。這主要是負面翻譯效應的結果。

Costs for SG&A and RD&E net combined was SEK 14 million higher, mainly due to higher personnel costs and projects. However, in relation to sales, it was down 50 basis points. As a result, the leverage on the higher sales, excluding currency effects, was in the upper half of our typical 20% to 30% operational leverage range. This is despite not getting any leverage on the inflation compensation from our customers.

SG&A 和 RD&E 的淨成本總計增加了 1,400 萬瑞典克朗，主要是因為人員成本和專案成本增加。然而，就銷售額而言，卻下降了 50 個基點。因此，較高銷售額的槓桿（不包括貨幣影響）處於我們典型的 20% 至 30% 營運槓桿範圍的上半部。儘管我們沒有從我們的客戶那裡獲得任何通貨膨脹補償。

Looking now on the cash flow on the next slide. For the third quarter of 2023, our cash flow decreased by SEK 30 million to SEK 202 million compared to the same period last year, mainly as a result of less favorable working capital effects, partly offset by the higher net income. Year-to-date, operating cash flow increased by NOK 285 million compared to the same period last year to NOK 535 million, mainly due to higher adjusted operating income and less negative working capital effects. During the third quarter, working capital grew by NOK 36 million, driven by higher inventories. We will provide more information on trade working capital on a later slide.

現在看看下一張投影片上的現金流。 2023年第三季度，我們的現金流量與去年同期相比減少了3,000萬瑞典克朗，至2.02億瑞典克朗，這主要是由於營運資本效應較差，但部分被較高的淨利潤所抵銷。年初至今，營運現金流較去年同期增加 2.85 億挪威克朗，達到 5.35 億挪威克朗，主要是因為調整後的營運收入增加以及營運資本負面影響減少。第三季度，由於庫存增加，營運資金增加了 3,600 萬挪威克朗。我們將在後面的幻燈片中提供有關貿易營運資本的更多資訊。

Capital expenditures net decreased to SEK 151 million from $164 million in the previous year. Capital expenditures net in relation to sales was 5.8% compared to 7.1% a year earlier. Free cash flow was SEK 50 million in Q3, $18 million lower than a year earlier. And year-to-date, free cash flow has improved by NOK 186 million to NOK (inaudible) million. Our full year indication of an operating cash flow of around SEK 900 million is unchanged. Last 12 months cash conversion, defined as free cash flow in relation to the net income was 99%.

資本支出淨額從前一年的 1.64 億美元減少至 1.51 億瑞典克朗。與銷售額相關的資本支出淨額為 5.8%，去年同期為 7.1%。第三季自由現金流為 5,000 萬瑞典克朗，比去年同期減少 1,800 萬美元。今年迄今為止，自由現金流增加 1.86 億挪威克朗，達到 100 萬挪威克朗（聽不清楚）。我們全年經營現金流約 9 億瑞典克朗的指標維持不變。過去 12 個月的現金轉換（定義為自由現金流與淨利之比）為 99%。

Now looking on our trade working capital development on the next slide. During the third quarter, trade working capital increased by EUR 11 million, driven by SEK 35 million higher inventories, partly offset by SEK 14 million higher accounts payables and by SEK 10 million in lower receivables. The higher inventories was mainly due to the continued volatility and the UAW strikes. In 2019, we launched our capital efficiency program aiming to improve working capital by SEK 800 million. To date, we have achieved almost SEK 350 million, all from payables so far. Receivables and special inventories are lagging due to the high call of volatility and hence planning challenges resulting in inefficiencies. We do expect this to improve significantly in tandem with the reduced call off volatility.

現在來看看下一張投影片中我們的貿易營運資金發展。第三季度，貿易營運資本增加了 1,100 萬歐元，原因是庫存增加了 3,500 萬瑞典克朗，但部分被應付帳款增加了 1,400 萬瑞典克朗和應收帳款減少了 1,000 萬瑞典克朗所抵銷。庫存增加主要是由於持續的波動和聯合汽車工人工會的罷工。 2019 年，我們啟動了資本效率計劃，旨在提高營運資本 8 億瑞典克朗。迄今為止，我們已實現近 3.5 億瑞典克朗，全部來自應付帳款。由於波動性大，因此規劃挑戰導致效率低下，應收帳款和特殊庫存落後。我們確實預計，隨著取消波動性的降低，這種情況將顯著改善。

Now looking on our leverage ratio development on the next slide. Our debt leverage ratio at the end of September 2023 was 1.3x, unchanged compared to the prior quarter. This was a result of SEK 36 million higher net debt and NOK 77 million higher 12 months trading adjusted EBITDA.

現在看看下一張投影片上我們的槓桿率發展。截至 2023 年 9 月底，我們的債務槓桿率為 1.3 倍，與上一季相比沒有變化。這是由於淨債務增加了 3,600 萬瑞典克朗，12 個月交易調整後 EBITDA 增加了 7,700 萬挪威克朗。

Now looking on shareholder returns on the next slide. Autoliv has shown in the past several years, its ability to generate solid cash flow in periods with difficult market environments, such as Covid lockdowns, the war in Ukraine, industry supply chain challenges and related substantial decline in light vehicle production. Produced dividend payments and share repurchases to create shareholder value. (inaudible) the dividend has usually represented a yield of approximately 2% to 3% in relation to the average share price. Over the last 5 years, we have reduced the net debt significantly while returning SEK 1.2 billion directly to shareholders. This includes stock repurchases of 3.6 million shares for a total of SEK 317 million as part of our current stock repurchase program.

現在來看看下一張投影片上的股東回報。奧托立夫在過去幾年中展現了在市場環境困難時期產生穩定現金流的能力，例如新冠疫情封鎖、烏克蘭戰爭、行業供應鏈挑戰以及相關的輕型汽車產量大幅下降。產生股利支付和股票回購以創造股東價值。 （聽不清楚）股息的收益率通常約為平均股價的 2% 至 3%。在過去 5 年裡，我們大幅減少了淨債務，同時直接向股東返還 12 億瑞典克朗。其中包括作為我們目前股票回購計畫的一部分，回購 360 萬股股票，總金額為 3.17 億瑞典克朗。

We are considering several factors when executing the program such as our balance sheet, the cash flow outlook, our credit rating and the general business conditions, not only the debt leverage ratio. We always strive for the balance that is best for our shareholders, both long and short term.

我們在執行計劃時考慮了幾個因素，例如我們的資產負債表、現金流前景、我們的信用評級和一般業務狀況，而不僅僅是債務槓桿率。我們始終努力尋求對股東最有利的平衡，無論是長期或短期。

I'll now hand it back to Anders.

我現在把它還給安德斯。

Thank you, Fredrik. Looking at the next slide. As supply chains have improved in many regions, vehicle demand, sales backlogs and inventory stocking are now the main drivers of market development. S&P Global now expects that the fourth quarter global light vehicle production to increase by 3.6% compared to last year. Compared to the third quarter, volumes are expected to increase by around 2% due mainly to normal seasonality from summer shutdowns in the third quarter. Despite concerns surrounding elevated vehicle pricing in some markets and deteriorating credit conditions, global full year 2023 light vehicle production is projected to increase by over 7%. This is 250 basis points higher than their forecast from July.

謝謝你，弗雷德里克。看下一張投影片。隨著許多地區供應鏈的改善，車輛需求、銷售積壓和庫存庫存成為市場發展的主要驅動力。標準普爾全球目前預計第四季全球輕型汽車產量將比去年增加3.6%。與第三季相比，預計銷量將增加 2% 左右，這主要是由於第三季夏季停產造成的正常季節性影響。儘管人們對某些市場的汽車定價上漲和信貸狀況惡化感到擔憂，但 2023 年全球輕型汽車產量預計將增加 7% 以上。這比 7 月的預測高出 250 個基點。

This increase is driven by lower content vehicle models in China and higher growth in Eastern Europe, while production forecast for higher content markets, Western Europe and North America is lowered. For Autoliv, this change impacts average content per vehicle negatively by more than 800 points compared to S&P's July forecast. Light vehicle production in China continues to show relative strength, owing to both a strong EV demand and export activity, mainly benefiting the domestic OEMs. Near-term production, light vehicle production in North America continues to be impacted by the ongoing UAW strike.

這一成長是由中國含量較低的車型和東歐較高的成長所推動的，而含量較高的市場、西歐和北美的產量預測則有所下調。對於 Autoliv 來說，與標準普爾 7 月的預測相比，這項變更對每輛車的平均內容產生了超過 800 個百分點的負面影響。由於強勁的電動車需求和出口活動，中國的輕型車生產繼續表現出相對強勁的勢頭，主要受益於國內整車廠。北美地區的近期生產、輕型汽車生產持續受到美國汽車工人聯合會持續罷工的影響。

The latest S&P forecast for the fourth quarter is revised down to minus 7%. This includes the continuation of the strike actions already announced through Thanksgiving. Production in Europe is to a large extent, secured by OEM sales backlogs. However, we are set to see the underlying demand has abated due to higher vehicle prices and tighter credit conditions and the order backlogs at OEMs are shrinking going into 2024. We based our full year sales indication on global light vehicle production growth of around 7%.

標準普爾最新第四季預測下修至-7%。這包括繼續感恩節之前宣布的罷工行動。歐洲的生產在很大程度上是由 OEM 銷售積壓所保證的。然而，由於汽車價格上漲和信貸條件收緊，我們預計潛在需求將會減弱，原始設備製造商的積壓訂單將在 2024 年減少。我們的全年銷售指標是基於全球輕型汽車產量增加 7% 左右。

Now looking at adjusted operating margin progression in the next slide. For the fourth quarter, we expect substantial improvements of the adjusted operating margin. We anticipate further cost compensations from customers. The headcount reductions that we talked about previously, should support operating leverage and profitability. We expect continued high year-over-year sales growth, supported by launches, higher light vehicle production and higher prices. We have continued to see an improvement of supply chain stability throughout the year with reduced customer call-off volatility.

現在來看看下一張投影片中調整後的營業利潤率進度。對於第四季度，我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將大幅改善。我們預計客戶會進一步補償成本。我們之前討論過的裁員應該會支援營運槓桿和獲利能力。我們預計，在新車上市、輕型汽車產量增加和價格上漲的支持下，銷售量將繼續保持較高的年成長。我們全年持續看到供應鏈穩定性的改善，客戶取消波動的減少。

However, the improvement is somewhat slower than we had expected as it deteriorated somewhat in Europe in Q3. This, together with the higher sales and adverse FX development means that we expect the fourth quarter adjusted operating margin improvement year-over-year of around 1.5 to 2 percentage points, in line with the previously communicated improvement pattern of around 2 percentage points each quarter throughout 2023.

然而，改善速度比我們預期的要慢一些，因為第三季歐洲的情況惡化。再加上較高的銷售額和不利的外匯發展，意味著我們預計第四季度調整後營業利潤率將同比提高約 1.5 至 2 個百分點，與先前公佈的每季約 2 個百分點的改善模式一致整個2023 年。

Looking at our full year 2023 financial indications on the next slide. This slide shows our updated full year 2023 indications. The indications exclude costs and gains from capacity alignment, antitrust-related matter, a litigation settlement and other discrete items. Our full year indication is based on the light vehicle production growth assumption of around 7%, up from 4% in the previous indication. As a consequence, our organic sales is expected to increase organically by around 17% instead of the earlier indications of growth of around 15%. Currency translation effects are assumed to be around positive 1%.

在下一張投影片中查看 2023 年全年財務指標。這張投影片顯示了我們更新的 2023 年全年指標。這些指標不包括產能調整、反壟斷相關事項、訴訟和解和其他離散項目的成本和收益。我們的全年預測是基於 7% 左右的輕型汽車產量成長假設，高於先前預測的 4%。因此，我們的有機銷售額預計將有機成長 17% 左右，而不是先前的 15% 左右的成長跡象。貨幣換算效應假設為正 1% 左右。

The range for the adjusted operating margin is unchanged around 8.5% to 9%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around SEK 900 million. Our positive cash flow trend should allow for continued high shareholder return. Note that our full year 2023 indications are based on the assumptions that the UAW strike is not prolonged beyond what is included in the S&P Global October outlook.

調整後的營業利潤率範圍維持在 8.5% 至 9% 左右。營運現金流預計約 9 億瑞典克朗。我們積極的現金流趨勢應該能夠為股東帶來持續的高回報。請注意，我們的 2023 年全年指標是基於 UAW 罷工時間不會超出標普全球 10 月展望中所包含時間的假設。

I will now hand it over to Fredrik to briefly talk about 2024 and the improvements we see.

現在我將把它交給 Fredrik，簡要談談 2024 年以及我們看到的改進。

Turning to the next slide. For 2024, we see some tailwinds and headwinds. The main tailwinds include call of stability, leading to direct labor efficiency improvements, savings from the structural initiatives, as outlined earlier, effects from effects of continued operational improvements from automation and digitalization, but also favorable raw materials and executing on the strong order book. The main headwinds include operational headwinds from expected continued inflationary pressure, although smaller than this year, which we expect to lead to a customer compensation catch-up later in the year, just as it was in 2022 and 2023. Considering these potential tailwinds and headwinds, we expect a year-over-year improvement in adjusted operating margin.

轉到下一張投影片。 2024 年，我們會看到一些順風和逆風。主要的推動因素包括穩定的呼喚，導致直接的勞動力效率提高、結構性舉措的節省（如前所述）、自動化和數位化持續營運改善的影響，以及有利的原材料和強勁訂單的執行。主要阻力包括預期持續通膨壓力帶來的營運阻力，儘管比今年要小，但我們預計這將導致今年稍後客戶補償的趕上，就像2022 年和2023 年一樣。考慮到這些潛在的順風和逆風，我們預計調整後營業利潤率將比去年同期改善。

We expect 2024 to be an important step towards our medium-term target of 12% adjusted operating margin. As we have communicated, the medium-term targets rests on a few key conditions, which are that global light vehicle production is at least EUR 85 million, that the call of volatility is back to pre-pandemic levels and that we have full compensation for inflationary pressure after 2021 for a full year. We intend, as usual, to come back with the 2024 full year indication in connection with our fourth quarter earnings release in January.

我們預計 2024 年將是實現 12% 調整後營業利益率中期目標的重要一步。正如我們所傳達的，中期目標取決於幾個關鍵條件，即全球輕型汽車產量至少為 8500 萬歐元、波動性回到大流行前的水平以及我們對2021年後全年通膨壓力。像往常一樣，我們打算在 1 月發布第四季財報時提供 2024 年全年業績指標。

And I'll now hand it back to you, Mikael.

現在我將把它還給你，米凱爾。

Thank you, Fredrik. On to the next slide. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors.

謝謝你，弗雷德里克。轉到下一張投影片。我們今天的財報電話會議的正式評論到此結束，我們願意接受分析師和投資者的提問。

I will now hand it over back to our operator, Sandra.

現在我將把它交還給我們的操作員桑德拉。

(Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Relius Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）。我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Relius Emmanuel Rosner。

I had 2 questions around some of the factors you've highlighted going into 2024. The first one you're mentioning on this slide is the customer call-offs as a positive. So just was curious if you could give a little bit more color of what you've actually seen in Europe this quarter where you indicated that there may have been some sequential deterioration. What do you think drives this? And is that an ongoing issue? And then as we move essentially into 2024, how do we think about these savings? Is it just better incremental margin on higher volume? Or is it like -- is there a discrete bucket of, I don't know, headcount reduction that you can achieve as a result of more stable call-offs?

關於您強調的進入 2024 年的一些因素，我有兩個問題。您在這張投影片中提到的第一個因素是客戶取消訂單這一積極因素。因此，我很好奇您是否可以對本季度歐洲實際看到的情況提供更多信息，您表示可能存在一些連續惡化。您認為是什麼推動了這一點？這是一個持續存在的問題嗎？然後，當我們基本上進入 2024 年時，我們如何看待這些節省？是否只是銷售量增加而帶來更好的增量利潤？或者是不是——我不知道，是否可以透過更穩定的取消來實現人員數量的減少？

Thank you, Emmanuel. Let me start with the call last then and hand over to Fredrik to take you through the second part of your question there. As we have talked about throughout not only this year, but see some time back here, we have had a challenging situation when it have come to this volatility resulting in Stop-n-Go in our operations here. And that has, throughout the year, improved and going in the right direction, including Europe. But what we saw in Q3 here in Europe was that it turn to the worse again. And that is, I would say, purely related to supply issues in our customers' value chain here.

謝謝你，伊曼紐。讓我從上次的電話開始，然後交給弗雷德里克（Fredrik）來帶您解決問題的第二部分。正如我們不僅今年一直在談論的那樣，而且在過去一段時間裡也談到過，當這種波動導致我們在這裡的業務時停時走時，我們面臨著一個充滿挑戰的局面。這一年來，情況有所改善，並朝著正確的方向發展，包括歐洲。但我們在歐洲第三季看到的是情況再次變得更糟。我想說，這純粹與我們客戶價值鏈中的供應問題有關。

So of course, the root cause for that could vary. But for example, we still see that the semiconductor situation is still a problem for some of our customers. We have no reason to believe that this deterioration in Europe comes from any end consumer deterioration or situation at all. So, I see it's very much connected to the reasons we have had in the last quarters and years here that, unfortunately, went in the wrong direction for Europe. But otherwise, I would say, as an average, we are climbing up towards the 90% level. But as you remember, pre-pandemic, we were basically at 100%. So, we are still far from where we were before the pandemic when it comes to the stability altogether in the company regardless of region there.

當然，其根本原因可能會有所不同。但例如，我們仍然看到半導體情況對我們的一些客戶來說仍然是一個問題。我們沒有理由相信歐洲的這種惡化來自任何終端消費者的惡化或情況。因此，我認為這與我們過去幾季和幾年的經歷有很大關係，不幸的是，歐洲走錯了方向。但除此之外，我想說的是，作為平均水平，我們正在向 90% 的水平攀升。但正如你所記得的，在大流行之前，我們基本上處於 100%。因此，無論在哪個地區，就公司的穩定性而言，我們距離大流行之前的水平還很遠。

So, Fredrik, maybe...

所以，弗雷德里克，也許…

So then, yes, for next year, if you look at S&P Global, based on that, there will also be the expectation is that we should also expect some even a bit limited volume growth. So that should help the margin development. But then it is more importantly, the further improvement on the call of stability. I mean we do have significant inefficiencies in our operations due to the current significantly lower level of stability. And the further this comes up to the 100% that Mikael mentioned, the more it will allow us to move or operate back at the efficiency levels that we've been used to. But of course, then the third component is the structural initiatives that we have added on to this and both on the indirect side and the direct side that is also supported by what we're doing in automation and digitalization.

那麼，是的，明年，如果你看看標準普爾全球公司，基於此，我們也應該預期銷量成長會有所有限。因此，這應該有助於利潤率的發展。但更重要的是，穩定性的進一步提高。我的意思是，由於目前的穩定性水準明顯較低，我們的營運效率確實嚴重低。越進一步達到 Mikael 提到的 100%，我們就越能恢復或恢復到我們已經習慣的效率水準。當然，第三個組成部分是我們在間接和直接方面添加的結構性舉措，這也得到了我們在自動化和數位化領域所做工作的支持。

And then my second question is specifically about the structural initiatives. I think earlier in the year, when you had first announced a plan for headcount reduction. I think you had mentioned at the time a potential total of 8,000 headcount reduction. I think so far, based on the plans announced the first steps, I think you announced maybe about 1,400 or so of this 8,000. So obviously, a lot more to go. So, my questions are, is 8,000 still the right number in the current environment? And then what would be the timing for not just announcements of additional steps, but can any of those still benefit 2024? Or would that be beyond that?

我的第二個問題具體是關於結構性措施。我想是在今年早些時候，當時你們首次宣布了裁員計畫。我想您當時曾提到可能總共裁員 8,000 人。我認為到目前為止，根據宣布的第一步計劃，我認為您可能宣布了這 8,000 個中的 1,400 個左右。顯然，還有很多工作要做。那麼，我的問題是，在當前環境下8000仍然是正確的數字嗎？那麼，除了宣布額外措施之外，還有哪些措施仍能讓 2024 年受益的時機是什麼？或會超出這個範圍嗎？

Yes. So, we did announce 8,000, but we also split that into 2 groups. It was 2,000 of what we call indirect or salaried employees and then 6,000 on the direct side. The direct side, the 6,000 is very much connected to what we just talked about before. So, it is also based on that we come-- or that the stability levels on the call of also support that. And then we should be able to come back to the regular type of productivity achievements that we have been operating at, which will then allow us to take out 6,000 people with the volumes of end of March as the basis for that number, and that is progressing.

是的。所以，我們確實宣布了 8,000 人，但我們也將其分成了 2 組。其中 2,000 名我們稱之為間接或受薪員工，然後是 6,000 名直接員工。從直接的角度來看，6000 與我們之前談到的有很大關係。因此，這也是基於我們的到來——或者說，我們的穩定性水平也支持這一點。然後我們應該能夠回到我們一直以來所取得的常規生產力成就，這將使我們能夠以 3 月底的數量作為該數字的基礎，取出 6,000 人，那就是正在進步。

Then on the 2,000, yes, we have announced so far 1,400 of which 300 were direct. So, of the 2,000, we have announced 1,100. And also, the savings associated with that. So, there is more to come, but we have so far progressed on more than half of the 2000. And cost-wise of what we've taken also more than half has been booked already. And you can also see now in the third quarter that our headcount is down by 400 employees on the indirect side. So yes, some of those activities are already in place.

然後關於 2,000 個，是的，到目前為止我們已經宣布了 1,400 個，其中 300 個是直接的。因此，在這 2,000 個中，我們已經宣布了 1,100 個。還有與此相關的節省。所以，還有更多的事情要做，但到目前為止，我們已經在 2000 年的一半以上取得了進展。從成本角度來看，我們所採取的措施也有一半以上已經被預訂。現在您也可以看到，我們在第三季間接減少了 400 名員工。所以，是的，其中一些活動已經到位。

We will now take the next question from the line of Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

現在我們將回答富國銀行科林·蘭根 (Colin Langan) 提出的下一個問題。

In the last slide, you noted inflationary pressure and the timing of customer compensation as the big headwind into next year. What are the new inflationary costs that we should be thinking about into next year? Or is it that you're getting a little bit more pushback on getting recoveries? Is that the other part of the issue? And then in general, can you just remind us how much of what you've already gotten recovered is in the piece price versus what would actually need to get maybe renegotiated at the start of next year?

在上一張投影片中，您指出通膨壓力和客戶賠償的時機是明年的一大阻力。明年我們應該考慮哪些新的通膨成本？或者你在康復方面遇到了更多阻力？這是問題的另一部分嗎？總的來說，您能否提醒我們，您已經收回的金額中有多少是計件價格，而實際需要在明年初重新談判的金額有多少？

So, on the first -- we use the same macroeconomic forecast that you have at your hand and available. So, we do expect that inflation level should come down as they are right now, and they should be lower next year than this year. But we do also expect that special labor will have a higher inflation level next year than what it has had at historical averages, but most likely less than what we've had in this year. But we'll come back to that when we talk more specifically on 2024.

因此，首先，我們使用您手邊可用的相同宏觀經濟預測。因此，我們確實預期通膨水準應該會像現在一樣下降，明年的通膨水準應該會低於今年。但我們也確實預期明年特殊勞動力的通膨水平將高於歷史平均水平，但很可能會低於今年的通膨水平。但當我們更具體地討論 2024 年時，我們會回到這個主題。

Then on the recovery side, I think we have progressed as expected. And we did indicate after the second quarter's earnings or in the call that there might be a delay from Q3 into Q4, but that has not really happened. So Q3 developed more or less as we had expected initially, meaning that it's not as much back-end loaded in this year as we had communicated back then. And it's also -- it was more piece price recovery in the third quarter here now with the lump sum than what we have communicated in the second quarter.

然後在恢復方面，我認為我們已經取得了預期的進展。我們確實在第二季財報發布後或在電話會議中表示，可能會從第三季推遲到第四季度，但這並沒有真正發生。因此，第三季的發展或多或少符合我們最初的預期，這意味著今年的後端負載沒有我們當時傳達的那麼多。而且，第三季的單價復甦比我們在第二季溝通的情況要多。

But does that mean when you go into next year, you'll have to renegotiate those lump sums again? And is that a concern as you go into next year that you might get more pushback given the labor inflation the automakers are facing?

但這是否意味著當您進入明年時，您將不得不再次重新談判這些一次性付款？當你進入明年時，考慮到汽車製造商面臨的勞動力通膨，你是否會擔心你可能會受到更多阻力？

No, I think already last year, we also had lump-sums that we negotiated this year. I think the important thing is that we have a, I would say, a process together with our customers, how to get compensated for the inflationary components here. And we have, I would say, an annual process here where we take that into account. So, I think the split of what is lump sum and what is more fees price related is connected to the tie for inflation. You could say, if it's something of temporary nature, it should, of course, not need to be in the same level as we move forward. So, it's a very detailed negotiation with each customer.

不，我想去年我們就已經商定了今年的一次性付款。我認為重要的是，我想說，我們與客戶一起制定了一個流程，如何獲得通貨膨脹成分的補償。我想說，我們有一個年度流程，我們會考慮到這一點。因此，我認為一次性付款和與價格相關的費用的劃分與通貨膨脹有關。你可以說，如果它是暫時性的，那麼它當然不需要與我們前進的程度相同。因此，這是與每個客戶進行非常詳細的談判。

But what you need to remember also is that this is mirroring what we have with our suppliers. So, we have a fair amount of lump sums paid to our supplier base as well. So, we balance these 2 sides of the business here against each other here to make sure that we have a good cost structure and a flexible cost structure to offset any changes there. But for me, I feel very comfortable with the way we get compensated here. And as long as we are in the inflationary environment, this will be ordinary course of business to negotiate with our customers on an early basis for this type of costs.

但您還需要記住的是，這反映了我們與供應商的關係。因此，我們也向我們的供應商群體一次性支付了相當數量的款項。因此，我們在這裡平衡業務的這兩個方面，以確保我們擁有良好的成本結構和靈活的成本結構來抵消那裡的任何變化。但對我來說，我對我們在這裡獲得報酬的方式感到非常滿意。只要我們處於通貨膨脹環境中，儘早與客戶就此類成本進行談判就將是正常的業務過程。

We will now take the next question from the line of Mattias Holmberg from DNB Markets.

我們現在將回答來自 DNB Markets 的 Mattias Holmberg 的下一個問題。

First, I would just like to clarify on the tax rate given that it's likely to have quite a material impact on the net profit going forward. So, in order to get to the 20% for the full year, given that you've had a bit above 30% year-to-date, am I correct to assume that you're paying basically 0 tax in Q4? And then also on that topic, the 25% to 30% that you see a new normalized tax rate going forward, quite a wide range and also significantly lower than the 32% you've had in the past. Could you specify it perhaps a little bit more than that? Or is there any reason why you've given such a wide range?

首先，我想澄清一下稅率，因為它可能會對未來的淨利潤產生相當大的影響。那麼，為了達到全年 20% 的稅率，考慮到今年迄今為止您的稅率略高於 30%，我假設您在第四季度基本繳納 0 稅的假設是否正確？同樣在這個主題上，你會看到未來新的標準化稅率為 25% 到 30%，範圍相當廣泛，而且也明顯低於過去的 32%。能具體說明一下嗎？或者有什麼理由讓你給出如此廣泛的範圍嗎？

So yes, you're right. We were taking down the guidance here for the taxes of 32% to around 20%. This is due to the ongoing very significant reorganization of both global functions and our European operations, which is expected to lead to a reduced tax rate in this year, which is also very much associated with the ongoing restructurings. But it's also important -- this is not cash effective in this year. So, it will not affect the taxes paid in this year. Then going forward, we do expect, as we said, the normalized tax rate to be then around 25% to 30% from 2024 onwards. I think using the midpoint of that range is not a bad assumption at the moment. And this will then be impacting the taxes paid also from 2024 onwards.

所以是的，你是對的。我們將此處的稅率指引從 32% 下調至 20% 左右。這是由於全球職能和歐洲業務正在進行非常重大的重組，預計這將導致今年稅率降低，這也與正在進行的重組有很大關係。但同樣重要的是——這在今年並不具有現金效益。因此，不會影響本年度繳納的稅金。然後，正如我們所說，展望未來，我們確實預計從 2024 年起，正常化稅率將在 25% 至 30% 左右。我認為目前使用該範圍的中點並不是一個糟糕的假設。這也將影響 2024 年以後繳納的稅金。

And should we view this as a permanent steady state going forward in terms of tax rate?

我們是否應該將其視為未來稅率的永久穩定狀態？

Yes, you can.

是的你可以。

And then final question for me. You mentioned the potential recall here of the ARC inflators. I'm just curious, are you as a company liable for the inflators RCS produced? Or how would that work in a potential recall situation?

然後是我的最後一個問題。您提到了 ARC 充氣機可能被召回的情況。我只是好奇，作為一家公司，你們要為 RCS 生產的充氣機負責嗎？或者在潛在的召回情況下這將如何發揮作用？

ARC is -- they are a competitor to us. That's their exposure. Then of course, our part of that, as I mentioned here, is where we have purchased these components from them. So, we are also a customer to them in this regard. And the portion that is related to Autoliv modules as far as we understand and see here, there has not been any cases connected to that volume here. So, we're, of course, following this development here very closely, but we see this also clearly as something we can support our customers with in case of a recall, but where they need to have replacement, but we are not there yet.

ARC 是－他們是我們的競爭對手。這就是他們的曝光度。當然，正如我在這裡提到的，我們的部分是從他們那裡購買這些組件。所以，在這方面我們也是他們的客戶。根據我們所了解和看到的與 Autoliv 模組相關的部分，這裡還沒有任何與該磁碟區相關的案例。因此，我們當然非常密切地關注這一發展，但我們也清楚地看到，我們可以在召回的情況下為客戶提供支持，但他們需要更換，但我們還沒有做到這一點。

And do you believe that you could get compensation in a potential recall from ARC? Or would you have to cover that cost yourself?

您是否認為 ARC 可能召回您可以獲得賠償？還是您必須自己承擔這筆費用？

If there would be such a situation, our expectations, of course, is that this is on ARC's accounts, for sure.

如果發生這種情況，我們的期望當然是這肯定是在 ARC 的帳戶上。

We will now take the next question from the line of Jairam Nathan from Daiwa.

現在我們將回答來自 Daiwa 的 Jairam Nathan 的下一個問題。

I was just wanted to go to the LEAP year outperformance slide. So, it looks like the outperformance in North America and Europe have declined quite a bit from the first half. And what are the main reasons for that? And how should we think about the regional outperformance for next year?

我只是想看看 LEAP 年表現出色的幻燈片。因此，北美和歐洲的表現似乎較上半年下降。其主要原因是什麼？我們該如何看待明年的地區表現？

No. I think if you go back in time, you can see that this number is a little bit volatile, but that direction is clearly that we are continuing to grow our market share in our respective regions you talked about here. And of course, in a single quarter, you can have certain mix effects. So, I shouldn't read in too much to that. I think we are steadily moving towards the market share of around 45% that we have communicated earlier on. And yes, I think we have a good activity level also to backfill our order book here to support that.

不。我想如果你回到過去，你會發現這個數字有點波動，但這個方向顯然是我們正在繼續增加你在這裡談到的各自地區的市場份額。當然，在一個季度內，你可以產生一定的混合效應。所以，我不應該讀太多的內容。我認為我們正在穩步朝著我們之前溝通過的 45% 左右的市場份額邁進。是的，我認為我們也有良好的活動水平來回填我們的訂單簿以支持這一點。

And just finally, on the share buybacks and debt to debt levels. But given the higher interest rate environment and maybe for longer, does that change your thinking on the debt levels and buyback funding?

最後，關於股票回購和債務水準。但考慮到較高的利率環境，並且可能持續更長的時間，這是否會改變您對債務水平和回購資金的看法？

I think we believe that with the good cash flow generating operations we have today, it supports well the buyback program that we are committed to here, and I don't see this being something that would affect our way forward here.

我認為我們相信，憑藉我們今天擁有的良好的現金流產生業務，它很好地支持了我們在這裡承諾的回購計劃，我不認為這會影響我們在這裡前進的道路。

We will now take the next question from the line of Giulio Pescatore from BNP Exane.

現在我們將回答來自 BNP Exane 的 Giulio Pescatore 的下一個問題。

The first one on the guidance, just quickly, I'm just trying to understand exactly what assumptions are you incorporating with regards to the strike. So, you said you are in line with IHS. Does that mean that you expect the strike to continue until the end of November? I think that's what S&P is currently forecasting. And is that -- does that mean EUR 6 million per week until the end of November? Is that what you are including in the 1.5% to 2% margin improvement in Q4? And maybe if you can give us also an indication of what operating leverage or drop-through on that lost revenue are you incorporating in the assumption?

關於指導的第一個，很快，我只是想準確地了解您對罷工有何假設。所以，你說你符合 IHS。這是否意味著您預計罷工將持續到 11 月底？我認為這就是標準普爾目前的預測。這是否意味著 11 月底前每週 600 萬歐元？這就是您在第四季 1.5% 至 2% 的利潤率改善中所包含的內容嗎？也許您也可以向我們表明您在假設中納入了哪些營運槓桿或收入損失的下降？

So, the short answer to your first question is yes. So, it is until the end of November. And from what we can tell right now, it is around SEK 6 million per week that is the impact on our top line. Of course, this can change daily. And on the drop through here, it remains to be seen what that will be at the end of the quarter. As Mike mentioned here before, we do see that at the moment, the volumes seem to be picked up also by some of the competitors. They are not unionized by UAW. So, it's still a very fluid environment here that we need to monitor throughout the quarter.

所以，你的第一個問題的簡短答案是肯定的。就這樣，一直到11月底。據我們目前所知，每週對我們營收的影響約為 600 萬瑞典克朗。當然，這每天都可能會改變。至於這裡的下降，本季末的情況還有待觀察。正如麥克之前提到的，我們確實看到目前一些競爭對手的銷量似乎也有所增加。他們沒有加入 UAW 工會。因此，這裡的環境仍然非常不穩定，我們需要在整個季度進行監控。

And you're also not assuming a big pickup after the end of the strike, a big pickup in volumes.

而且你也不會假設罷工結束後產量會大幅增加。

Yes, I think some pickup if it goes through into basically Thanksgiving and then a pickup then to recover some of that volume in the fourth quarter. But again, it's very fluid and it remains to be seen here how the overall volumes also develop.

是的，我認為如果基本上持續到感恩節，然後會有所回升，然後在第四季度恢復部分銷量。但同樣，它非常不穩定，整體銷售如何發展還有待觀察。

Then the second question on the [hello], is it fair to say that you stand to benefit way more than you start to lose out of this recall. Both in terms of the potential replacement impact and in terms of the long-term implication with regard to pricing if one of your competitors was to suffer. And that's the first part of the question. And the second part is, can you maybe help us quantify the potential opportunity for you on the replacement side? Because it feels like it's very significant, right? It's over the course of 10 years, of course, but let's say that the EUR 52 million recall does materialize. Is it fair to say that you might have 50% share of that recall? And can you just help us understand the opportunity here if recall does go into effect?

然後關於[你好]的第二個問題是，可以公平地說，您從這次召回中受益遠多於開始損失。無論是在潛在的替代影響方面，還是在您的競爭對手之一遭受損失時對定價的長期影響方面。這是問題的第一部分。第二部分是，您能否幫助我們量化您在替代方面的潛在機會？因為感覺這件事很有意義，對吧？當然，這已經過去了 10 年，但我們假設 5,200 萬歐元的召回確實實現了。公平地說，您可能擁有 50% 的召回份額嗎？如果召回確實生效，您能否幫助我們了解這裡的機會？

I think it's too premature to speculate in that. As we all know, it's not in that stage yet, and there is work with NISA and of course, ARC and the customers that is ongoing. So, we are standing by and willing to support our customers if needed, but it's too early to start to talk about any numbers or potentials and so forth in this. We just have to wait and see here.

我認為現在猜測還為時過早。眾所周知，目前還沒有進入那個階段，與 NISA、當然還有 ARC 和客戶的​​合作正在進行中。因此，我們隨時待命，並願意在需要時為我們的客戶提供支持，但現在開始談論這方面的任何數字或潛力等還為時過早。我們只能在這裡拭目以待。

We will now take the next question from the line of Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea.

現在我們將回答來自 Nordea 的 Agnieszka Vilela 的下一個問題。

So, starting with the EBIT bridge, I note that probably for the first time in 9 quarters, you reported positive impact from raw materials, a moderate one, but still positive. So, could you please maybe talk about some deflation that you see in your cost input? And what it is related to? That's my first question.

因此，從息稅前利潤橋開始，我注意到，這可能是九個季度以來第一次，你們報告了原材料的正面影響，雖然影響不大，但仍然是正面的。那麼，您能否談談您在成本投入中看到的一些通貨緊縮？以及它與什麼有關？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. Correct. It's the first time in a long time here that we see a positive effect on raw materials. We have guided for a flat development for the full year, which means that we should see an even stronger positive development also in the fourth quarter. So yes, we do see that raw material prices are coming -- or costs are coming down for us. So far, it's been mainly driven by nonferrous materials, especially magnesium, that has come down from the peaks, but also steel has been favorable, but we have seen still some increases this year, especially on the textile side. But we also expect that this should be more favorable going forward. Then on what this means for next year, as we said before, we have this 6 to 9 months’ time lag between where spot prices or indices are moving until that manifests itself in our cost structure. So, we are monitoring very closely what that means, but we'll talk more specifically about that with the guidance for next year.

是的。正確的。這是我們很長一段時間以來第一次看到原材料受到正面影響。我們預計全年發展將持平，這意味著第四季度我們應該會看到更強勁的積極發展。所以，是的，我們確實看到原物料價格正在上漲——或者我們的成本正在下降。到目前為止，它主要受到有色金屬材料的推動，尤其是鎂，已經從峰值回落，而且鋼鐵也受到了有利的推動，但我們今年仍然看到一些增長，特別是在紡織方面。但我們也預期這對未來會更有利。那麼這對明年意味著什麼，正如我們之前所說，現貨價格或指數變動之間存在 6 至 9 個月的時間滯後，直到這種情況在我們的成本結構中反映出來。因此，我們正在密切關注這意味著什麼，但我們將在明年的指導中更具體地討論這一點。

And just to understand a follow-up on that. Will your customers require then price decreases because of lower input cost for you? Or how should we think about it?

只是為了了解後續情況。您的客戶會因為您的投入成本降低而要求降價嗎？或者說我們該如何思考？

Yes. We do expect that we will then also give some of those price decreases back to our customers. And then we have a higher level of pass-through clauses with the customers now. So yes, when raw material costs come down, we then also adjust our prices accordingly. But that should have a favorable impact on the margin because it was margin dilutive on the way up, and then it should be somewhat accretive on the way down.

是的。我們確實希望我們也能將部分降價回饋給我們的客戶。然後我們現在與客戶有更高水準的轉嫁條款。所以，是的，當原料成本下降時，我們也會相應地調整我們的價格。但這應該會對利潤率產生有利的影響，因為利潤率在上升時會被稀釋，而在下降時它應該會增加。

And then my second question, I think, Mikael, you mentioned that the car production in Europe so far is secured by backlog, but you see demand abating and also order backlog shrinking going into 2024. And if color you could provide to us when you speak to your customers in Europe in regards to their production planning?

然後是我的第二個問題，Mikael，您提到迄今為止歐洲的汽車生產是透過積壓訂單來保證的，但您會看到需求減弱，而且訂單積壓量也會減少，直到2024 年。如果您可以提供我們顏色，當您與歐洲客戶討論他們的生產計劃？

I think -- as you know, the problem we have here is that even if we have visibility, the pickups is deteriorating. So, it's in a short-term perspective where we have the challenges within the week. Otherwise, I think when it comes to the overall production planning, there is nothing indicating that we are looking at the weaker European market. I think what is happening is, of course, that after all these years of backlog buildup, that is now normalizing. So, I would say, from a consumer point of view, we have nothing indicating that we should have lower volume due to that. And I think we are seeing more normalization of backlog and volatility coming from the supply component issues that we have talked about earlier. So that otherwise, we don't see anything.

我認為——正如你所知，我們面臨的問題是，即使我們有能見度，皮卡的性能也在惡化。因此，從短期角度來看，我們在本週內面臨挑戰。否則，我認為就整體生產計劃而言，沒有任何跡象表明我們正在考慮疲軟的歐洲市場。當然，我認為正在發生的事情是，經過這些年的積壓，現在正在正常化。所以，我想說，從消費者的角度來看，我們沒有任何跡象顯示我們應該因此而減少銷售量。我認為我們看到積壓和波動更加正常化，這些問題來自於我們之前討論過的供應組件問題。否則，我們什麼也看不見。

We will now take the next question from the line of Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken.

我們現在將回答來自 Handelsbanken 的 Hampus Engellau 的下一個問題。

Two questions from me. First, Mike, if you could maybe talk a little bit about the development in China with the local OEMs quite healthy growth there. How much is this driven by better electric cars coming into the market and exports and how much is it driven by, I guess, more competition in China on being more safe.

我有兩個問題。首先，麥克，您能否談談在中國的發展，當地原始設備製造商在中國的發展相當健康。我猜這在多大程度上是由更好的電動車進入市場和出口所推動的，在多大程度上是由中國在更安全方面的更多競爭所推動的。

A quick note on that. I don't think I have a number for to give you the breakdown, what is driven by what there. But as you said, we see export growth for Chinese OEM increasing quite significantly to, yes, mainly China, Asian countries, you could say, but also to Europe there. And also, the overall ambition from the Chinese OEMs here to increase the safety content. And I would say quite dynamic market here where their requests for new innovations together with us to improve content is a great growth opportunity for us here and good collaboration here with our Chinese OEMs here. So, a strong position for us in China altogether there.

關於這一點的快速說明。我不認為我有一個數字可以給你細分，什麼是由那裡的因素驅動的。但正如您所說，我們看到中國 OEM 的出口成長相當顯著，是的，主要是中國、亞洲國家，您可以說，但也包括歐洲。此外，中國原始設備製造商整體上有增加安全內容的雄心。我想說，這裡的市場非常活躍，他們對新創新的要求與我們一起改進內容，對我們來說是一個巨大的成長機會，也是我們與中國原始設備製造商的良好合作。因此，我們在中國擁有強大的地位。

Maybe a last question then for me is, in this process of the automization and digitalization of the production, would it be possible for you to maybe share some back on where you are in that process? How far have you come and how much is left?

也許對我來說最後一個問題是，在這個生產自動化和數位化的過程中，您是否可以分享一些您在這個過程中所處的位置？你已經走了多遠，還剩下多少？

I think in the Investor Day here in India we had a slide showing -- I don't have it in front of me here now. But there, you saw that we have come a fair amount in certain of our product families here, but still a lot of opportunities left. So, we have plenty of opportunities to continue this journey. I think in some of the product families, maybe we are in a 30%, 40% of the potential. So yes, plenty of room to capitalize on optimization and digitalization going forward. But I can refer to that slide in the presentation deck on the Investor Day that you can see in more detail.

我想在印度的投資者日，我們放映了一張幻燈片——現在我面前沒有它。但在那裡，你看到我們在某些​​產品系列中已經取得了相當大的成果，但仍然有很多機會。因此，我們有很多機會繼續這趟旅程。我認為在某些產品系列中，我們可能擁有 30%、40% 的潛力。所以，是的，未來有足夠的空間來利用優化和數位化。但我可以參考投資者日簡報中的那張投影片，您可以看到更多詳細資訊。

We will now take the next question from the line of Rod Lache from Wolfe Research.

現在我們將回答來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache 的下一個問題。

I'd like to understand what your Q4 implied margin, your guidance of 11.5% to 12% suggests for the run rate of margin if we adjusted for seasonality because we know that Q4 is typically, I think, at least 100 basis points above average due to seasonality of recoveries, maybe a few other factors. Is that the case? Is that roughly the magnitude that we should be thinking about if we're thinking about a run rate? And then you reiterated the 12% margin objective at an 85 million-unit LVP as long as it's stable. So, S&P is already there. Could you quantify what the magnitude is of the inefficiency due to instability that you're experiencing right now?

我想了解你們第四季的隱含利潤率，如果我們根據季節性進行調整，你們的指導值為11.5% 到12%，建議的利潤率運行率是多少，因為我認為，我們知道第四季度通常比平均值高出至少100 個基點由於復甦的季節性，也許還有其他一些因素。是這樣嗎？如果我們考慮運行率，這大致是我們應該考慮的程度嗎？然後您重申了 8500 萬單位 LVP 的 12% 利潤率目標，只要它穩定即可。所以，標準普爾已經在那裡了。您能否量化您目前所經歷的不穩定所導致的效率低下的嚴重程度？

So, the seasonality in Q4 is not different this year than in other years. So, it's, yes, around 100, 110 basis points that we also expect this year and then mostly of that is related to the engineering income that is seasonally higher in the fourth quarter. The rest of the margin increase is from the structural cost initiatives we're putting in place and then the further development on the commercial recoveries with our customers. And then on the margin walk up, I think we have to come back on that. Nothing has changed from what we have said earlier at the Investor Day or in other discussions. It is the same logic that still applies to what we've said before.

因此，今年第四季的季節性與其他年份並沒有什麼不同。因此，是的，我們預計今年的成長率約為 100、110 個基點，其中大部分與第四季度季節性較高的工程收入有關。其餘的利潤成長來自我們正在實施的結構性成本計劃，以及與客戶的商業復甦的進一步發展。然後在邊緣走上來，我認為我們必須回到這一點。我們之前在投資者日或其他討論中所說的內容沒有任何變化。同樣的邏輯仍然適用於我們之前所說的內容。

Yes, I understand. I was just hoping you might just give us a sense of the burden that Autoliv is incurring right now from that inefficiency?

是的我明白。我只是希望你能讓我們了解奧托立夫現在因效率低下而承受的負擔？

I don't think we've given a number before, and I don't want to do that either now. But as Mike said before, here is that we actually saw that in some parts of the world, especially in Europe, the call of reliability went backwards in Q3. It was a good track throughout the year. And in, say, all other regions, it continued to improve. But unfortunately, Europe, it went backwards. It’s -- and then it has very, very different types of how that manifests itself in our inefficiency. So, it's very difficult to give a number. That's why I would like to refrain from it.

我認為我們之前沒有給過具體數字，現在我也不想這樣做。但正如麥克之前所說，我們實際上看到在世界某些地區，特別是在歐洲，對可靠性的呼聲在第三季度出現了倒退。這是全年都很好的賽道。在所有其他地區，情況都在持續改善。但不幸的是，歐洲卻倒退了。它以非常非常不同的方式表現在我們的低效率上。所以，很難給一個數字。這就是為什麼我想避免這樣做。

And just lastly, if the recall happens, as NISA is suggesting, it obviously makes sense that Autoliv would participate in some way, supporting your customers with replacement modules. Could you just, at a very high level, talk about what typically happens in advance of something like that? Do your customers ask for engineering work ahead of time? If this were to happen, what would you guess would be the earliest that you could accommodate the industry? And how long would the process of supporting the industry to do something of that magnitude take?

最後，如果正如 NISA 所建議的那樣發生召回，奧托立夫以某種方式參與，透過更換模組為您的客戶提供支持，顯然是有意義的。您能否在很高的層面上談談在類似事件發生之前通常會發生什麼？您的客戶是否要求提前進行工程工作？如果發生這種情況，您認為最早可以容納該行業需要什麼時間？支持該行業做如此大規模的事情需要多長時間？

I think it's -- to start with, the process would be that the customer engaged and request us to quote for such an activity and of course, then work with any engineering adjustment needed from our side. The specific details there is difficult to answer because it's unique by customer and depending on our own product portfolio here and what needs to be done there. So that's a unique case. But I think we have shown in the past that we are capable of supporting our customers in quite significant recall situations there. So, I expect us to be able to do that fairly quickly if this would happen here as well.

我認為，首先，流程是客戶參與並要求我們對此類活動進行報價，當然，然後進行我們方面所需的任何工程調整。那裡的具體細節很難回答，因為它對客戶來說是獨一無二的，並且取決於我們自己的產品組合以及在那裡需要做什麼。所以這是一個獨特的案例。但我認為我們過去已經表明，我們有能力在相當重大的召回情況下為客戶提供支援。因此，如果這種情況也發生在這裡，我希望我們能夠相當快地做到這一點。

I would now like to turn the conference back to Mikael Bratt for closing remarks.

現在我想請米凱爾布拉特 (Mikael Bratt) 致閉幕詞。

Thank you, Sandra. I'm confident that we will deliver a substantial increase in sales, operating cash flow and adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter. We continue to advance of our structural cost reductions initiatives, and we see an improving position with fast-growing OEMs as well as continued gradual stabilization of supply chains. This forms a strong foundation for continued strong development in the years to come that support our midterm targets. Autoliv continues to focus on our vision of saving more lives, which is our most important direct contribution to a sustainable society. Our fourth quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, January 26, 2024. Thank you, everyone for participating in today's call. We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv. Until next time. Stay safe.

謝謝你，桑德拉。我相信我們將在第四季度實現銷售額、營運現金流和調整後營運收入的大幅成長。我們繼續推進結構性成本削減計劃，我們看到快速成長的原始設備製造商的地位正在改善，供應鏈也持續逐步穩定。這為未來幾年的持續強勁發展奠定了堅實的基礎，支持我們的中期目標。奧托立夫繼續專注於拯救更多生命的願景，這是我們對永續社會最重要的直接貢獻。我們的第四季財報電話會議定於 2024 年 1 月 26 日星期五舉行。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們衷心感謝您對奧托立夫的持續關注。直到下一次。注意安全。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。