Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Autoliv, Inc. Fourth Quarter 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，感謝您的支持。歡迎參加 Autoliv, Inc. 2023 年第四季財務績效電話會議。 （操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Anders Trapp. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給今天的發言人安德斯·特拉普 (Anders Trapp)。請繼續。

Thank you, Nadia. Again, welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter and full year 2023 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin; and me, Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations.

謝謝你，納迪亞。再次歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。出席本次電話會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Mikael Bratt；以及我們的財務長 Fredrik Westin；我是投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。

During today's earnings call, Mikael and Fredrik will, among other things, provide an overview of the record sales and earnings, the strong cash flow, balance sheet and order intake for 2023. They will also outline the expected sequential margin improvement in 2024 and the journey towards our targets. Mikael and Fredrik will also provide an update on our general business and market conditions. We will then remain available to respond to your questions. And as per usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com.

在今天的財報電話會議上，Mikael 和 Fredrik 將概述 2023 年創紀錄的銷售額和收益、強勁的現金流、資產負債表和訂單量。他們還將概述 2024 年預期的連續利潤率改善以及實現我們目標的旅程。 Mikael 和 Fredrik 也將提供有關我們整體業務和市場狀況的最新資訊。然後我們將隨時回答您的問題。像往常一樣，這些幻燈片可以在 autoliv.com 上找到。

Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly press release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-K that will be filed with the SEC. Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 p.m. Central European Time. So please follow a limit of 2 questions per person.

轉到下一張投影片。我們有安全港聲明，它是本簡報的組成部分，並包括隨後的問答。在演示過程中，我們將參考非美國公認會計準則衡量標準。歷史美國 GAAP 與非美國 GAAP 衡量標準的調整已在我們在 autoliv.com 上發布的季度新聞稿以及將向 SEC 提交的 10-K 中披露。最後，我應該要提到，本次電話會議預計將於下午 3:00 結束。中歐時間。因此，請遵守每人 2 個問題的限制。

I will now hand over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

現在我將把工作交給我們的執行長 Mikael Bratt。

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. I'd like to recognize the entire team for delivering another strong quarter, which reflects our strong execution culture. We ended 2023 on a strong note as we achieved or exceeded all our 2023 indications. In the quarter, our organic sales grew by 16%, outperforming Light Vehicle Production significantly, especially in rest of Asia and Japan. The strong growth was mainly a result of product launches and customer compensations for inflationary pressure as well as higher-than-expected Light Vehicle Production.

謝謝你，安德斯。看下一張投影片。我想對整個團隊的表現表示認可，他們再次實現了強勁的季度業績，這反映了我們強大的執行文化。我們以強勁的勢頭結束了 2023 年，我們實現或超過了 2023 年的所有指標。本季度，我們的有機銷售額成長了 16%，顯著超過輕型汽車產量，尤其是在亞洲其他地區和日本。強勁成長主要得益於產品推出和客戶對通膨壓力的補償以及輕型汽車產量高於預期。

We generated a broad-based improvement in key areas, including gross margin and adjusted operating margins, both year-over-year and sequentially. Our cash flow was strong and the net debt leverage improved, while we increased our dividend and repurchased shares for $150 million in the quarter or approximately USD 352 million for the year. We are making progress towards our intention of reducing our indirect workforce by up to 2,000. We now expect savings of around $50 million in 2024 from these initiatives.

我們在關鍵領域實現了廣泛的改善，包括毛利率和調整後的營業利潤率，無論是同比還是環比。我們的現金流強勁，淨債務槓桿率有所改善，同時我們在本季度增加了股息並以 1.5 億美元或全年約 3.52 億美元的價格回購了股票。我們正在朝著減少最多 2,000 名間接員工的目標取得進展。現在，我們預計這些措施到 2024 年可節省約 5,000 萬美元。

Order intake developed well. It is especially encouraging to see the strong order intake with fast-growing Chinese OEMs.

訂單量發展良好。看到快速成長的中國整車廠獲得的強勁訂單尤其令人鼓舞。

For 2024, we foresee sales growing in mid-single digit despite an expected modest decline in Light Vehicle Production. 2024 should take us one important step closer to our adjusted operating margin targets driven by improved call of stability, growth, structural and strategic initiatives and customer compensations. However, the heightened seasonality of earnings of prior years is likely to be repeated in 2024.

儘管輕型汽車產量預計將小幅下降，但我們預計 2024 年銷量將實現中個位數成長。 2024 年，我們將朝著調整後的營業利潤率目標邁出重要一步，這是由於穩定性、成長、結構性和策略性舉措以及客戶薪酬的改善而推動的。然而，前幾年獲利季節性加劇的情況可能會在 2024 年重演。

Now looking at the order intake more in detail on the next 2 slides. Our order intake for the full year continued to develop well, supporting long-term growth in a rapidly changing technology environment with many new OEMs and EV platforms. The estimated lifetime value of our 2023 order intake was the highest in the past 5 years. The strong order intake is an evidence that our company remains the clear leader in the passive safety automotive industry.

現在，在接下來的兩張幻燈片中更詳細地了解訂單量。我們全年的訂單量持續保持良好成長，透過許多新的原始設備製造商和電動車平台，在快速變化的技術環境中支持長期成長。我們 2023 年訂單量的估計終身價值是過去 5 年來的最高值。強勁的訂單量證明我們公司仍然是被動安全汽車行業的明顯領導者。

One of our internal key performance indicators, customer satisfaction continues to be on a high level. We continue to strive for improving products, services, processes and costs while maintaining industry-leading quality.

作為我們內部關鍵績效指標之一，客戶滿意度仍然處於高水準。我們持續努力改善產品、服務、流程和成本，同時保持業界領先的品質。

Our strong order intake with a good mix of EV and ICE platforms and the high level of customer satisfaction support, our confidence regarding growth also beyond 2024.

我們透過電動車和內燃機平台的良好組合以及高水準的客戶滿意度支援獲得了強勁的訂單量，我們對 2024 年以後的成長充滿信心。

Looking on the next slide. In 2023, order intake for new EV platform was high, both with new EV makers and traditional OEMs. We estimate that around 45% of our order intake in 2023 was for future electric vehicles. Consumer demand for EVs may have faded somewhat in the short term, but regulatory changes supporting EVs will increase, at least in Europe. Although our products are drivetrain agnostic, it is important to have a balanced exposure both to EVs and ICE to capture future market growth. With the order book that we have built, we believe that we have a good exposure to all growing segments.

看下一張投影片。 2023 年，新電動車平台的訂單量很高，無論是新電動車製造商還是傳統 OEM 廠商。我們估計 2023 年約有 45% 的訂單來自未來的電動車。消費者對電動車的需求可能在短期內減弱，但支持電動車的監管變化將會增加，至少在歐洲是如此。儘管我們的產品與動力傳動系統無關，但平衡電動車和內燃機對於抓住未來市場的成長非常重要。透過我們建立的訂單簿，我們相信我們對所有不斷增長的細分市場都有良好的接觸。

New automakers, mainly in North America and China, accounted for around 25% of our order intake. Fast-growing Chinese OEMs accounted for around 50% of our order intake in China. And we expect this group of OEMs to account for close to 40% of our Chinese sales in 2024, up from 22% in 2022. We won multiple awards supporting new markets and industry trends like Pretensioner Seatbelts for rear-seat passengers, airbags with low carbon cushion material as well as anti-submarining airbags for zero gravity style seats for self-driving vehicles.

新車製造商（主要來自北美和中國）約占我們訂單量的 25%。快速成長的中國整車廠占我們在中國訂單量的 50% 左右。我們預計，到2024 年，這群OEM 廠商將占我們中國銷售額的近40%，高於2022 年的22%。我們贏得了多個獎項，支持新市場和行業趨勢，例如後座乘客預緊器安全帶、低位安全氣囊碳緩衝材料以及用於自動駕駛車輛零重力式座椅的反潛安全氣囊。

As a result of the strong order intake in the past years, we expect an increase in overall product launches in 2024, especially in China and Europe. This development contributes to building an even stronger platform for our long-term success.

由於過去幾年的訂單量強勁，我們預計 2024 年整體產品發布量將會增加，尤其是在中國和歐洲。這一發展有助於為我們的長期成功建立一個更強大的平台。

Now looking at the significant sequential cost improvements during 2023 on the next slide. Year-to-date, we have generated a broad-based improvement in key areas, both year-over-year and sequentially. On this slide, we highlight the sequential improvements. In the fourth quarter, we continued to actively address our cost base while successfully negotiating with our customers to secure pricing and other compensations that reflect the higher inflation. Our direct labor productivity continues to trend up, supported by the implementation of our strategic initiatives, including automation and digitalization.

現在在下一張投影片上查看 2023 年期間顯著的連續成本改進。今年迄今為止，我們在關鍵領域取得了廣泛的進步，無論是同比還是環比。在這張投影片上，我們重點介紹了連續的改進。在第四季度，我們繼續積極解決我們的成本基礎問題，同時成功地與客戶進行談判，以確保反映較高通膨的定價和其他補償。在自動化和數位化等策略性措施實施的支持下，我們的直接勞動生產力持續上升。

Our gross margin improved by 410 basis points compared to the first quarter and by 140 basis points from the third quarter. This is mainly the result of the higher labor efficiency and customer compensations. The positive trend for RD&E and SG&A in relation to sales have continued and have now declined by 270 basis points since Q1, partly as a result of normal seasonality with high engineering reimbursements in the fourth quarter. Combined with the gross margin improvement, this led to substantially improvement -- substantial improvement in adjusted operating margin.

我們的毛利率比第一季提高了 410 個基點，比第三季提高了 140 個基點。這主要是由於較高的勞動效率和客戶補償的結果。與銷售相關的 RD&E 和 SG&A 的積極趨勢仍在繼續，但自第一季以來已下降 270 個基點，部分原因是第四季度工程報銷較高的正常季節性因素。與毛利率的改善相結合，這導致了大幅改善——調整後營業利潤率的大幅改善。

Looking now on financials in more details on the next slide. Sales in the fourth quarter increased by 18% year-over-year, mainly due to higher Light Vehicle Production, new product launches, higher prices and other compensations, and favorable currency translation effects. The strong sales increase and cost reduction activities led to substantial improvement in adjusted operating income.

現在在下一張投影片中詳細了解財務狀況。第四季銷售額年增18%，主要得益於輕型汽車產量增加、新產品推出、價格上漲和其他補償以及有利的貨幣換算效應。強勁的銷售成長和成本削減活動導致調整後營業收入大幅改善。

Adjusted operating income increased by more than 40% to $334 million from $233 million last year. The adjusted operating margin was 12.1% in the quarter, an increase by over 2 percentage points from the same period last year and by almost 7 percentage points from the first quarter.

調整後營業收入從去年的 2.33 億美元成長了 40% 以上，達到 3.34 億美元。本季調整後營業利益率為12.1%，較去年同期成長逾2個百分點，較第一季成長近7個百分點。

Operating cash flow was $447 million, which was $15 million lower than the same period last year. The main reason for the lower cash flow was the unusual strong cash flow last year which was related to timing effects of customer recoveries.

營運現金流為4.47億美元，比去年同期減少1500萬美元。現金流量下降的主要原因是去年現金流量異常強勁，這與客戶恢復的時間效應有關。

Looking now on the structural cost savings activities on the next slide. To secure our medium- and long-term competitiveness and to support our financial targets, we launched a cost reduction initiative in June 2023, with the intent of reducing our indirect headcount by up to 2,000 and the direct workforce headcount reduction of up to 6,000. We estimate that the annual cost reductions will amount to around $130 million when fully implemented with around $50 million already in 2024 and around $100 million expected in 2025.

現在來看看下一張投影片上的結構性成本節約活動。為了確保我們的中長期競爭力並支持我們的財務目標，我們於 2023 年 6 月啟動了成本削減計劃，旨在減少最多 2,000 名間接員工和最多 6,000 名直接員工。我們估計，全面實施後，每年的成本削減額將約為 1.3 億美元，其中 2024 年已削減約 5,000 萬美元，預計 2025 年將削減約 1 億美元。

Total accrual for capacity alignment in 2023 amounted to USD 218 million. We do not plan to announce further major reduction initiative details. At the end of 2023, around 75% of the planned indirect reductions were detailed and announced. We already see positive impact on direct labor productivity as a result.

2023 年產能調整的應計總額達 2.18 億美元。我們不打算宣布進一步的重大減排計畫細節。到 2023 年底，約 75% 的間接減排計畫已詳細說明並公佈。我們已經看到這對直接勞動生產力產生了積極影響。

Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales increased to almost USD 2.8 billion, a new quarterly record. This was over $400 million higher than a year earlier driven by price, volume, mix and currencies. Out-of-period cost compensations contributed with USD 45 million, out-of-period compensations or retroactive price adjustments and other compensations that mainly relate to the first 3 quarters but were negotiated in the fourth quarter.

現在在下一張投影片中更詳細地了解我們的銷售成長。我們的綜合淨銷售額增至近 28 億美元，創下新的季度記錄。受價格、數量、組合和貨幣的影響，這一數字比一年前增加了 4 億多美元。期外成本補償貢獻了4500萬美元，期外補償或追溯價格調整以及其他補償主要與前三季度有關，但在第四季度進行了協商。

Looking on the regional sales split. Asia accounted for 41%, Americas for 31% and Europe for 28%. We outlined our organic sales growth compared to LVP on the next slide.

看看區域銷售的分佈。亞洲佔41%，美洲佔31%，歐洲佔28%。我們在下一張投影片中概述了與 LVP 相比的自然銷售成長。

I am very pleased that our organic sales growth significantly outperformed global Light Vehicle Production growth in the fourth quarter as we continue to execute on our strong order book. According to S&P Global, fourth quarter Light Vehicle Production increased by 9% year-over-year. This was more than 5 percentage points higher than expectations at the beginning of the quarter, with most of the higher-than-expected production coming from domestic OEMs in China and in North America as the impact of the UAW strike was smaller than expected.

我很高興在第四季度我們的有機銷售成長顯著超過全球輕型汽車產量成長，因為我們繼續執行強勁的訂單。根據 S&P Global 的數據，第四季輕型汽車產量年增 9%。這比本季初的預期高出5個百分點以上，其中大部分高於預期的產量來自中國和北美的國內整車廠，因為UAW罷工的影響小於預期。

In the quarter, we outperformed global Light Vehicle Production by around 7 percentage points, with strong performance, especially in rest of Asia and Japan. The modest underperformance in China was mainly driven by a negative customer mix, following strong Light Vehicle Production growth for lower safety content vehicles.

本季度，我們的輕型汽車產量比全球輕型汽車產量高出約 7 個百分點，表現強勁，尤其是在亞洲其他地區和日本。中國的表現略有不佳，主要是由於安全含量較低的車輛的輕型汽車產量強勁增長後，客戶結構的負面影響。

On to the next slide. For the full year, we outperformed global Light Vehicle Production by around 9 percentage points despite a negative regional Light Vehicle Production mix. We outperformed in Japan by 15 percentage points, in rest of Asia by 14 percentage points, and in China by 8 percentage points. The performance in China was mainly driven by increasing sales to domestic Chinese OEMs. Our sales to this group outperformed Light Vehicle Production by 17 percentage points and accounted for 28% of our sales in China, up from to 22% in 2022.

轉到下一張投影片。儘管地區輕型汽車產量結構呈負增長，但全年我們的輕型汽車產量表現仍比全球輕型汽車產量高出約 9 個百分點。我們在日本的表現領先 15 個百分點，在亞洲其他地區領先 14 個百分點，在中國領先 8 個百分點。中國的業績主要受到中國國內整車廠銷量增加的推動。我們對該集團的銷售比輕型汽車生產高出 17 個百分點，占我們在中國銷售的 28%，這一比例將從 2022 年的 22% 上升到。

In 2023, our global market share was around 45%. This is almost 6 percentage points higher than 5 years ago when the electronic business was spun off. Our global market position is strong in all product categories with 47% of airbags, 45% of seatbelts and 40% of steering wheels. Supported by new launches, market share gains and content per vehicle growth as well as our further price increases, we expect sales to outperform Light Vehicle Production by 5 to 6 percentage points in 2024.

2023年，我們的全球市佔率約為45%。這比 5 年前電子商務業務剝離時高出近 6 個百分點。我們在所有產品類別中都擁有強大的全球市場地位，其中安全氣囊佔 47%、安全帶佔 45%、方向盤佔 40%。在新車推出、市佔率成長、每輛車內容成長以及價格進一步上漲的支持下，我們預計 2024 年銷售量將超過輕型汽車產量 5 至 6 個百分點。

On the next slide, we see some key model launches for the fourth quarter. During 2023, we had a record number of product launches, especially in China, Europe and Japan. For 2024, we see another step up in a number of product launches, particularly in the first half of the year. The trend towards electrification is clear on this slide, with 7 models being available as electric versions. The models shown here have an Autoliv content per vehicle of around $110 or higher with the highest at over USD 800. In terms of Autoliv sales potential, the Zeekr 007 launch is the most significant.

在下一張幻燈片中，我們看到第四季度推出的一些關鍵型號。 2023 年，我們的產品發布數量創歷史新高，尤其是在中國、歐洲和日本。到 2024 年，我們看到許多產品的發布將進一步加快，特別是在今年上半年。這張投影片上的電氣化趨勢很明顯，有 7 種型號可供選擇。這裡展示的車型每輛車的 Autoliv 含量約為 110 美元或更高，最高可達 800 美元以上。就 Autoliv 的銷售潛力而言，Zeekr 007 的推出最為重要。

I will now hand it over to our CFO, Fredrik Westin, who will talk you through the financials on the next slide.

現在我將把它交給我們的財務長 Fredrik Westin，他將在下一張投影片上向您介紹財務狀況。

Thank you, Mikael. This slide highlights our key figures for the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the fourth quarter of 2022.

謝謝你，米凱爾。這張投影片重點介紹了 2023 年第四季與 2022 年第四季相比的關鍵數據。

Our net sales were almost $2.8 billion, this was an increase of 18% year-over-year. Gross profit increased by $131 million or by 33% to $530 million, while the gross margin increased by 2.2 percentage points to 19.3%. The adjusted operating income increased from $233 million to $334 million, and the adjusted operating margin increased by 220 basis points to 12.1%. Non-GAAP adjustments amounted to $97 million, almost entirely for capacity alignments. Adjusted earnings per share diluted increased by $1.91 where the main drivers were $0.75 of higher adjusted operating income, $1.09 from tax and $0.10 from other items, partly offset by financial items. Our adjusted return on capital employed and return on equity increased to 33% and 47%, respectively. We increased the dividend to $0.68 per share in the quarter, and we purchased and retired 1.5 million shares for around $150 million under our existing $1.5 billion stock repurchase program.

我們的淨銷售額接近 28 億美元，年增 18%。毛利增加 1.31 億美元，或 33%，達到 5.3 億美元，毛利率增加 2.2 個百分點，達到 19.3%。調整後的營業收入從2.33億美元增加到3.34億美元，調整後的營業利益率增加220個基點至12.1%。非 GAAP 調整額為 9,700 萬美元，幾乎全部用於產能調整。調整後每股攤薄收益增加了 1.91 美元，其中主要驅動力是調整後營業收入增加 0.75 美元、稅收 1.09 美元和其他項目 0.10 美元，部分被金融項目抵消。調整後的已動用資本報酬率和股本報酬率分別增加至 33% 和 47%。本季我們將股息提高至每股 0.68 美元，並根據現有 15 億美元的股票回購計劃，以約 1.5 億美元的價格購買並退役了 150 萬股股票。

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the fourth quarter of 2023, our adjusted operating income of $334 million was $101 million higher than the same quarter last year. Our operations were positively impacted by improved pricing and other customer compensations, higher volumes, lower cost for premium freight as well as our strategic initiatives but partly offset by headwinds from general cost inflation. The impact from raw material prices was $14 million positive. Out-of-period cost compensation was approximately $37 million higher than during the same period last year. The FX impact was limited. Cost for SG&A and RD&E net combined was $30 million higher, mainly due to lower engineering income and labor cost inflation. In relation to sales, it was unchanged compared to last year.

現在來看看下一張投影片上調整後的營業收入橋樑。 2023年第四季，我們調整後的營業收入為3.34億美元，比去年同期高出1.01億美元。我們的業務受到定價和其他客戶補償的改善、銷售增加、優質貨運成本降低以及我們的策略性舉措的正面影響，但部分被整體成本通膨的不利影響所抵消。原材料價格的正面影響為 1,400 萬美元。期外成本補償比去年同期高出約 3,700 萬美元。外匯影響有限。 SG&A 和 RD&E 淨成本合計增加了 3,000 萬美元，主要是由於工程收入下降和勞動成本上漲。從銷售額來看，與去年相比沒有變化。

The margin was also affected by the accruals for warranty and recalls of $17 million or 65 basis points. The accruals are related to 3 different cases. As a result, the leverage on the higher sales, excluding currency effects and warranty and recall costs was in the upper half of our typical 20% to 30% operational leverage range.

利潤率也受到 1700 萬美元或 65 個基點的保固和召回應計費用的影響。應計費用與 3 個不同的案例有關。因此，較高銷售額的槓桿率（不包括貨幣影響以及保固和召回成本）處於我們典型的 20% 至 30% 營運槓桿範圍的上半部分。

Looking now on the full year financial results on the next slide. Despite higher-than-expected Light Vehicle Production, 2023 was again a turbulent year with labor cost inflation, supply disruptions, customer price negotiations and continued volatile Light Vehicle Production. Our net sales were $10.5 billion, with sales increasing organically by over 18%, twice the increase in the underlying Light Vehicle Production and 3 percentage points higher than expected in the beginning of the year. The adjusted operating income increased by 54% to $920 million. The adjusted operating margin was 8.8% compared to our guidance of around 8.5% to 9%.

現在來看看下一張投影片上的全年財務表現。儘管輕型汽車產量高於預期，但 2023 年仍然是動蕩的一年，勞動力成本上漲、供應中斷、客戶價格談判以及輕型汽車產量持續波動。我們的淨銷售額為 105 億美元，銷售額有機成長超過 18%，是基礎輕型汽車產量成長的兩倍，比年初的預期高出 3 個百分點。調整後的營業收入成長了 54%，達到 9.2 億美元。調整後的營業利益率為 8.8%，而我們的指導值為 8.5% 至 9% 左右。

The operating cash flow was $982 million compared to the guidance of around $900 million. Adjusted earnings per share increased by $3.79 per share to $8.19 where the main drivers were $2.51 from higher adjusted operating income $1.31 from lower income taxes, partly offset by $0.18 from financial items. Dividends of $2.66 per share were paid and we repurchased and retired 3.7 million shares for around $352 million. Sales, adjusted operating income, operating cash flow as well as the adjusted earnings per share were all the highest we have ever achieved.

營運現金流為 9.82 億美元，而指引為 9 億美元左右。調整後每股收益增加 3.79 美元，達到 8.19 美元，其中主要驅動因素為調整後營業收入增加 2.51 美元，所得稅降低 1.31 美元，部分被金融項目 0.18 美元抵銷。我們支付了每股 2.66 美元的股息，並以約 3.52 億美元的價格回購併退役了 370 萬股股票。銷售額、調整後營業收入、營業現金流以及調整後每股收益均為我們有史以來的最高水準。

Looking now at the full year adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In 2023, our adjusted operating income of $920 million was $322 million higher than last year. The impact from raw material prices was limited. FX impacted the operating profit negatively by $54 million. This was mainly a result of negative translation effects from the Mexican peso. Cost of SG&A and RD&E net combined was $95 million higher. However, in relation to sales, it was down 60 basis points. As a result, the leverage on the higher sales, excluding currency effects, was slightly above our typical 20% to 30% operational leverage range. This is despite not getting any leverage on the inflation compensation from our customers.

現在來看看下一張投影片上的全年調整後營業收入橋樑。 2023 年，我們調整後的營業收入為 9.2 億美元，比去年增加了 3.22 億美元。原物料價格影響有限。外匯對營業利潤產生了 5,400 萬美元的負面影響。這主要是由於墨西哥比索的負面翻譯影響所致。 SG&A 和 RD&E 淨成本總計高出 9,500 萬美元。然而，就銷售額而言，卻下降了 60 個基點。因此，較高銷售額的槓桿率（不包括貨幣影響）略高於我們典型的 20% 至 30% 的營運槓桿範圍。儘管我們沒有從我們的客戶那裡獲得任何通貨膨脹補償。

Looking now at the cash flow on the next slide. For the fourth quarter of 2023, operating cash flow decreased by $15 million to $447 million compared to the same period last year, which was impacted by positive timing effects of customer compensations. Capital expenditures net decreased to $150 million from $165 million. In relation to sales, it was 5.4% this year, down from 7.1% last year. Free cash flow was $297 million, about the same as last year. Our full year operating cash flow was $982 million, a new record for the company. Full year capital expenditures net in relation to sales was virtually unchanged at 5.4%. Free cash flow for the full year improved year-over-year by $186 million to $414 million. Our cash conversion, defined as free cash flow in relation to net income was 85%.

現在看看下一張投影片上的現金流。 2023年第四季度，營運現金流較去年同期減少1,500萬美元，至4.47億美元，這是受到客戶補償的正面時間效應的影響。資本支出淨額從 1.65 億美元減少至 1.5 億美元。就銷售額而言，今年為 5.4%，低於去年的 7.1%。自由現金流為 2.97 億美元，與去年基本持平。我們全年營運現金流為 9.82 億美元，創公司新紀錄。全年資本支出淨額相對於銷售額的比例幾乎沒有變化，為 5.4%。全年自由現金流年增 1.86 億美元，達到 4.14 億美元。我們的現金轉換率（定義為自由現金流與淨利比率）為 85%。

Now looking on our trade working capital development on the next slide. During the fourth quarter, trade working capital decreased by $71 million, driven by $120 million higher accounts payables, partly offset by $30 million higher inventories and by $19 million in higher receivables. The higher inventories and receivables were mainly due to the higher sales. Our capital efficiency program aims to improve working capital by $800 million and to date, we have achieved $580 million. Improvements in receivables and especially in inventories are lagging due to the high call-off volatility and hence, planning changes resulting in efficiencies. We expect this to improve significantly in tandem with the reduced call-off volatility over coming years.

現在來看看下一張投影片中我們的貿易營運資金發展。第四季度，由於應付帳款增加 1.2 億美元，貿易營運資本減少了 7,100 萬美元，部分被庫存增加 3,000 萬美元和應收帳款增加 1,900 萬美元所抵銷。庫存和應收帳款增加主要是因為銷售額增加。我們的資本效率計畫旨在將營運資本提高 8 億美元，迄今為止，我們已實現 5.8 億美元的目標。由於取消波動性較高，應收帳款、特別是庫存的改善滯後，因此計劃變化導致效率提高。我們預計，隨著未來幾年取消波動性的降低，這種情況將顯著改善。

Now looking at shareholder returns over the past 5 years on the next slide. Over the years, Autoliv has shown its ability to generate solid cash flow in periods with difficult market environments, such as COVID lockdowns, war in Ukraine, industry supply chain challenges and related volatile and declining Light Vehicle Production. We have used both dividend payments and share repurchases to create shareholder value. Historically, the dividend has usually represented a yield of approximately 2% to 3% in relation to the average share price. Over the last 5 years, we have reduced the net debt significantly while returning almost $1.4 billion directly to shareholders. This includes stock repurchases of 5.1 million shares for a total of USD 467 million as part of the current stock repurchase program. Since we initiated the stock repurchase program, we have reduced the number of outstanding shares by almost 6%.

現在在下一張投影片上查看過去 5 年的股東回報。多年來，奧托立夫已經證明了其在市場環境困難時期產生穩定現金流的能力，例如新冠疫情封鎖、烏克蘭戰爭、行業供應鏈挑戰以及相關的不穩定和下降的輕型汽車產量。我們利用股利支付和股票回購來創造股東價值。從歷史上看，股息的收益率通常約為平均股價的 2% 至 3%。在過去 5 年裡，我們大幅減少了淨債務，同時直接向股東返還近 14 億美元。其中包括作為目前股票回購計畫的一部分，回購 510 萬股股票，總金額為 4.67 億美元。自從我們啟動股票回購計畫以來，我們已將流通股數量減少了近 6%。

We do consider several factors when executing the program such as our balance sheet, the cash flow outlook, our credit rating and the general business conditions and not only the debt leverage ratio. We always strive to balance what is best for our shareholders, both short and long term.

在執行該計劃時，我們確實考慮了幾個因素，例如我們的資產負債表、現金流前景、我們的信用評級和一般業務狀況，而不僅僅是債務槓桿率。我們始終努力平衡短期和長期股東的最佳利益。

Now looking on our leverage ratio development on the next slide. Despite increased stock repurchases and higher dividend, the debt leverage ratio at the end of December 2023 improved to 1.2x from 1.3x at the end of the third quarter. This was a result of $108 million higher 12 months trailing adjusted EBITDA as the net debt was unchanged. We expect that our debt leverage and positive cash flow trend will allow for continued high shareholder returns going forward.

現在看看下一張投影片上我們的槓桿率發展。儘管股票回購增加和股息增加，但截至 2023 年 12 月底的債務槓桿率從第三季末的 1.3 倍改善至 1.2 倍。這是由於淨債務保持不變，過去 12 個月調整後 EBITDA 增加了 1.08 億美元。我們預計，我們的債務槓桿和正現金流趨勢將使股東持續獲得高回報。

I now hand it back to you, Mikael.

我現在把它還給你，米凱爾。

Thank you, Fredrik. On to the next slide. After a year where the global auto industry finally reached pre-pandemic levels to 2024 is shaping up to be something of a transitional year. With many regions having already rebuilt inventories, S&P continues to see a production outlook that is more reliant on the end customer demand.

謝謝你，弗雷德里克。轉到下一張投影片。全球汽車產業最終達到疫情前水準的一年之後，到 2024 年將成為過渡的一年。由於許多地區已經重建庫存，標準普爾繼續認為生產前景更加依賴最終客戶的需求。

Global Light Vehicle Production is projected to decline by close to 1% in 2024. This is due to affordability of new vehicles, somewhat softer interest in EVs in some regions and high interest rates. Most of the expected decline is in Japan and Europe. S&P Global expects first half year global Light Vehicle Production to increase 1%, while see second half declining almost 3% compared to last year.

預計 2024 年全球輕型車產量將下降近 1%。這是由於新車的承受能力、某些地區對電動車的興趣減弱以及高利率所致。預計下降的大部分發生在日本和歐洲。標準普爾全球預計上半年全球輕型汽車產量將成長 1%，而下半年將較去年下降近 3%。

Light vehicle production in China continues to be supported by strong EV demand and export activity. In North America, the UAW strike and the strong vehicle sales towards the end of 2023 have reduced inventories somewhat bolstering production volumes slightly for 2024. Production in Europe is expected to decline as inventory restocking will no longer boost output as was the case over the last 2 years.

中國的輕型汽車生產繼續受到強勁的電動車需求和出口活動的支持。在北美，UAW罷工和2023年底強勁的汽車銷售減少了庫存，在一定程度上提振了2024年的產量。歐洲的產量預計將下降，因為庫存補充將不再像去年那樣提高產量2年。

We based our full year sales indication on a global Light Vehicle Production decline of around 1%.

我們的全年銷售指標基於全球輕型汽車產量下降 1% 左右。

Now looking on the next slide. In 2023, the main cost challenges were around labor, cost inflation and energy. For 2024, we expect inflation mainly to impact labor costs for us and for our suppliers. We estimate the combined labor exposure, our own and our suppliers represents more than 40% of our cost base. Already during 2023, the tight labor market in some countries resulted in significantly higher than normal labor inflation. For 2024, we foresee further headwinds from wage increases, especially in Europe and North America.

現在看下一張投影片。 2023 年，主要成本挑戰圍繞勞動力、成本通膨和能源。對於 2024 年，我們預期通膨將主要影響我們和供應商的勞動成本。我們估計，我們自己和供應商的綜合勞動力風險占我們成本基礎的 40% 以上。 2023 年，一些國家勞動市場緊張導致勞動力通膨明顯高於正常水準。到 2024 年，我們預計薪資上漲將帶來進一步的阻力，尤其是在歐洲和北美。

Although many commodity indices are down since their peak in 2022, we currently assume raw material costs to only decline slightly in 2024. The reason being that the prices of specific raw material used in our products, such as automotive grade steel has not declined as much as the generic steel indices indicate. Additionally, we see higher costs for some materials such as yarn and resin. The Red Sea situation has not yet had any measurable impact on our own operations. We have noticed that some customers have reduced their volumes short term, but it is too early to estimate what potential impact it may have for 2024. Cost compensation negotiations will again be challenging, but nevertheless, we expect that price adjustments and other compensation will offset cost inflation.

儘管許多大宗商品指數自2022 年的峰值以來有所下降，但我們目前假設原材料成本在2024 年只會小幅下降。原因是我們產品中使用的特定原材料（例如汽車級鋼材）的價格並未下降那麼多正如通用鋼鐵指數所示。此外，我們發現某些材料（例如紗線和樹脂）的成本更高。紅海局勢尚未對我們自己的行動產生任何可衡量的影響。我們注意到一些客戶短期內減少了產量，但現在估計這對 2024 年可能產生的潛在影響還為時過早。成本補償談判將再次充滿挑戰，但儘管如此，我們預計價格調整和其他補償將抵消成本通膨。

Looking at the 2024 business outlook on the next slide. We expect a significant improvement in adjusted operating margin in 2024 compared to 2023, supported mainly by organic sales growth, a more stable Light Vehicle Production, structural and strategic initiative, cost control and customer compensations. We expect the adjusted operating margin in the first quarter to be around 7%, a significant decline from the fourth quarter in 2023 due to lower Light Vehicle Production, lower engineering income, cost inflation and timing of cost compensation. This is in line with the seasonality in the past 2 years.

在下一張投影片中查看 2024 年的業務前景。我們預計，與 2023 年相比，2024 年調整後營業利潤率將顯著改善，這主要得益於有機銷售成長、更穩定的輕型汽車生產、結構和策略舉措、成本控制和客戶補償。我們預計第一季調整後營業利潤率將在 7% 左右，較 2023 年第四季大幅下降，原因是輕型汽車產量下降、工程收入下降、成本通膨和成本補償時機。這與過去兩年的季節性相符。

We anticipate price adjustments and cost compensations will gradually, throughout the year, offset cost inflation and the pattern is expected to be similar to the quarterly pattern seen in 2022 and 2023 with limited positive effects in the first quarter. This trajectory should be further supported by improvements from strict cost control, structural savings as well as expected gradual improvement of the supply chain and Light Vehicle Production stability.

我們預計全年價格調整和成本補償將逐步抵銷成本通膨，預計該模式將與 2022 年和 2023 年的季度模式類似，第一季的正面影響有限。嚴格的成本控制、結構性節約以及供應鏈和輕型汽車生產穩定性的預期逐步改善應進一步支持此軌跡。

Looking at our 2024 financial guidance on the next slide. This slide shows our full year 2024 guidance, which excludes costs and gains from capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters and other discrete items. Our full year guidance is based on a Light Vehicle Production decline of around 1%. Despite lower Light Vehicle Production, our organic sales is expected to increase by around 5%. No net currency translation effects are expected on sales. The guidance for adjusted operating margin is around 10.5%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD 1.2 billion. Our positive cash flow trend should allow for continued high shareholder returns. We foresee a tax rate of around 28%, in line with our previous indications, of 25% to 30% as the new normal tax rate.

請查看下一張投影片中我們的 2024 年財務指引。這張投影片顯示了我們 2024 年的全年指導，其中不包括產能調整、反壟斷相關事項和其他離散項目的成本和收益。我們的全年指引是基於輕型汽車產量下降 1% 左右。儘管輕型汽車產量下降，但我們的有機銷售額預計將增加 5% 左右。預計銷售額不會受到淨貨幣換算影響。調整後營業利益率指引值為 10.5% 左右。營運現金流預計約12億美元。我們積極的現金流趨勢應該能夠為股東帶來持續的高回報。我們預計稅率為 28% 左右，與我們先前的預測一致，即 25% 至 30% 作為新的正常稅率。

Looking to our sustainability approach on the next slide. Guided by our vision of saving more lives. Our mission is to provide world-class life-saving solutions for mobility and society. Sustainability is an integral part of our business strategy and an important driver for market differentiation and stakeholder value creation, helping to ensure that our business will continue to thrive and contribute to sustainable development in the long term.

下一張投影片將介紹我們的永續發展方法。以拯救更多生命的願景為指導。我們的使命是為旅遊和社會提供世界一流的救生解決方案。永續發展是我們業務策略不可或缺的一部分，也是市場差異化和利害關係人價值創造的重要驅動力，有助於確保我們的業務持續蓬勃發展，並為長期永續發展做出貢獻。

Our sustainability approach is based on 4 focus areas: Saving more lives, safe and inclusive workplace, climate and responsible business, each consisting of long-term ambitions and more specific short-term targets. Our sustainability approach is anchored in well-established international frameworks such as the UN Global Compact and Science-based Targets. We aim to be carbon neutral in our own operations by 2030, and further aim for net zero emissions across our supply chain by 2040. These ambitions plays out to live among the front runners in the broader group of automotive suppliers.

我們的永續發展方法基於 4 個重點領域：拯救更多生命、安全和包容的工作場所、氣候和負責任的企業，每個領域都包含長期雄心和更具體的短期目標。我們的永續發展方法植根於完善的國際框架，例如聯合國全球契約和基於科學的目標。我們的目標是到 2030 年在我們自己的營運中實現碳中和，並進一步爭取到 2040 年在整個供應鏈中實現淨零排放。這些雄心壯志在更廣泛的汽車供應商群體中成為領先者。

Now looking at the sustainability progress in 2023 on the next slide. During 2023, we initiated and concluded a number of activities that highlight our commitment and contribution to the UN sustainable development goals and our own sustainability targets. For example, we are at the forefront of broadening test models and to include more body shapes and parameters such as age and gender. We have increased the use of renewable electricity, contributing to a significant decrease in greenhouse gas emissions from our own operations. The incidence rates have improved, and we carried out our annual climate survey at direct material suppliers to track their alignment with our climate requirements and ambitions.

現在在下一張投影片上查看 2023 年的永續發展進展。 2023 年，我們發起並完成了一系列活動，突顯了我們對聯合國永續發展目標和我們自己的永續發展目標的承諾和貢獻。例如，我們處於拓寬測試模型並納入更多體型和參數（例如年齡和性別）的前沿。我們增加了再生電力的使用，從而顯著減少了我們自身運作中的溫室氣體排放。發病率有所改善，我們對直接材料供應商進行了年度氣候調查，以追蹤他們與我們的氣候要求和目標的一致性。

Turning the slide to look at progress towards our targets. In the medium term, we are expecting to continue to grow our core business, airbags, seatbelts and steering wheels, through execution on the current strong order books. The other important growth driver is safety content per vehicle, which is driven by continuous updates of government regulation and cross-test ratings. Our growth target for the 3 years, 2022, 2023 and 2024, was to grow organically by around 4 percentage points more than Light Vehicle Production growth per year on average. This excludes any price compensation for raw material and other inflationary costs. The growth in 2022 and 2023 and the guidance for 2024 means that we expect to exceed these targets.

轉動幻燈片來看看我們目標的進度。從中期來看，我們預計透過執行目前強勁的訂單，繼續發展我們的核心業務—安全氣囊、安全帶和方向盤。另一個重要的成長動力是每輛車的安全內容，這是由政府法規和交叉測試評級的不斷更新所推動的。我們的 3 年（2022 年、2023 年和 2024 年）成長目標是每年有機成長比輕型汽車產量平均成長高出約 4 個百分點。這不包括原材料和其他通貨膨脹成本的任何價格補償。 2022 年和 2023 年的成長以及 2024 年的指導意味著我們預計將超過這些目標。

To maintain the growth momentum beyond 2024, we are pursuing an ambitious innovation program, the strong 2023 order intake supports continued growth momentum.

為了保持 2024 年以後的成長勢頭，我們正在實施雄心勃勃的創新計劃，2023 年強勁的訂單量支持了持續的成長勢頭。

Now looking on the multiple levers for margin improvement on the next slide. In the past 2 years, Autoliv has significantly reduced its cost base. We have implemented hundreds of cost efficiency projects, especially in production and supply chain. Our adjusted operating margin target of around 12% is based on the framework communicated at our Investor Day in June 2023. A business environment with a stable global Light Vehicle Production of at least $85 million and that headwinds from inflation is offset through price compensations. We remain confident that when these conditions are met for the full year, we are capable to reach a 12% adjusted operating margin target.

現在在下一張投影片上研究提高利潤率的多種手段。在過去兩年中，奧托立夫顯著降低了成本基礎。我們已經實施了數百個成本效率項目，特別是在生產和供應鏈方面。我們調整後的營業利潤率目標約為12%，是基於2023 年6 月投資者日傳達的框架。全球輕型汽車產量穩定至少為8,500 萬美元的商業環境，通膨帶來的阻力可以透過價格補償來抵消。我們仍然相信，當全年滿足這些條件時，我們有能力實現 12% 的調整後營業利潤率目標。

We now expect that the Light Vehicle Production conditions will be fulfilled during 2024. We expect that call-off volatility through 2024 will be lower than in 2023, but remain higher than the pre-pandemic level, having a negative impact on our productivity and efficiency. We expect continued inflationary pressure in 2024 with customer compensations lagging behind the cost increases. To offset the negative effects from inflation and market conditions and to secure our long-term competitiveness, we have launched a number of cost saving activities. We believe that the net effect of our actions and headwinds should result in a substantial step in 2024 towards our adjusted operating margin target.

我們現在預計輕型汽車生產條件將在 2024 年實現。我們預計 2024 年之前的取消波動將低於 2023 年，但仍高於大流行前的水平，這對我們的生產力和效率產生負面影響。我們預計 2024 年通膨壓力將持續，客戶補償將落後於成本成長。為了抵​​消通貨膨脹和市場狀況的負面影響並確保我們的長期競爭力，我們進行了一系列成本節約活動。我們相信，我們的行動和逆風的淨影響應該會導致我們在 2024 年朝著調整後的營業利潤率目標邁出實質的一步。

Now looking on delivering shareholder value through our 2024 business agenda on the next slide. To drive towards our financial targets and deliver shareholder value, the health and safety of our employees is our first priority, while continuing more activities to further improve quality and efficiency. We also continue our efforts of flawless execution of new launches, improving customer satisfaction further, and thereby, supporting our new and strong market position. Through our capital efficiency program, we aim to unlock capital from receivables, inventory and payables, combined with the execution of our strategic plan, this should lead to a strong cash flow generation which sets Autoliv up for attractive shareholder value creation.

現在，我們將在下一張投影片中探討如何透過 2024 年業務議程來實現股東價值。為了實現我們的財務目標並創造股東價值，員工的健康和安全是我們的首要任務，同時繼續進行更多活動以進一步提高品質和效率。我們也將繼續努力完美地執行新產品的發布，進一步提高客戶滿意度，從而支持我們新的、強大的市場地位。透過我們的資本效率計劃，我們的目標是從應收帳款、庫存和應付帳款中釋放資本，再加上我們戰略計劃的執行，這應該會產生強勁的現金流，從而為奧托立夫創造有吸引力的股東價值。

By executing on our strategic initiatives, footprint optimization and negotiating compensation from OEMs, we believe we will mitigate headwinds from cost inflation. To progress towards our climate targets, we will focus on increased resource efficiency and reduction of carbon footprint.

透過執行我們的策略性舉措、足跡優化以及與原始設備製造商協商補償，我們相信我們將減輕成本通膨帶來的不利因素。為了實現我們的氣候目標，我們將專注於提高資源效率並減少碳足跡。

I will now hand it back to Anders.

我現在將其交還給安德斯。

Thank you, Mikael. Turning to the last page. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors.

謝謝你，米凱爾。翻到最後一頁。我們今天的財報電話會議的正式評論到此結束，我們願意接受分析師和投資者的提問。

I now hand it back to you, Nadia.

我現在把它還給你，納迪亞。

(Operator Instructions) And now we're going to take our first question, and it comes from the line of Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）現在我們要回答第一個問題，它來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

Just looking at the -- you commented on this a bit, your long-term target is 4% over market. The guidance implies about 6%, I think you said in Slides 5 to 6, any reason why it's so strong this year? And maybe is that including some of the inflationary cost recoveries that you're expecting? I know that was a bit of a help last year. And any thoughts on the China headwind you called out in the quarter. Is that also kind of going to continue?

看看你對此的評論，你的長期目標是高出市場 4%。我想您在幻燈片 5 至 6 中說過，指導意味著大約 6%，今年如此強勁的原因是什麼？也許這包括您預期的一些通膨成本回收？我知道去年這對我有一點幫助。以及您對本季中國逆風的任何想法。這也會繼續下去嗎？

Thank you for your questions there. The 4% outperformance versus LVP takes us into 2024. So this is the last year of the 3-year period that we have communicated on. And as we said there, we expect to over-deliver on that target. And of course, it is thanks to the growth we have created through the order intake over the last couple of years. And of course, we have seen a good development on the content per vehicle also, and we expect to see that also next year. This excluded, as we mentioned here, also the price negotiations that is on top of that. Then beyond 2024, we have the 4% to 6%, where the core -- 4% to 6% organic growth target where the current, let's say, core business should be 2% to 4%. So that is our target beyond 2024.

謝謝您的提問。與 LVP 相比，4% 的優異表現將我們帶入 2024 年。因此，這是我們溝通的 3 年期間的最後一年。正如我們所說，我們預計將超額實現該目標。當然，這要歸功於過去幾年我們透過訂單量創造的成長。當然，我們也看到了每輛車內容的良好發展，我們預計明年也能看到這一點。正如我們在這裡提到的，這也排除了最重要的價格談判。然後到 2024 年之後，我們有 4% 到 6% 的核心有機成長目標，即 4% 到 6% 的有機成長目標，目前的核心業務應該是 2% 到 4%。這就是我們 2024 年以後的目標。

Regarding China, the minus 2% versus LVP, we saw in the fourth quarter is due to mix effects. As we mentioned here, we had growth -- significant growth on the low-end vehicles or, let's say, the vehicles with lower safety content than usual. But if you look at the full year, we had a very strong outperformance there of 8% for the full year. So we look very positively on China, and we feel that we are well positioned with -- let's say, the new EV players and also the OEMs in general there. So a positive view on China going forward.

至於中國，我們在第四季看到，與 LVP 相比，負 2% 是由於混合效應造成的。正如我們在這裡提到的，我們取得了成長——低端車輛，或者說，安全含量低於平常的車輛顯著增長。但如果你看看全年，我們的表現非常強勁，全年成長了 8%。因此，我們對中國持非常積極的態度，我們認為我們與那裡的新電動車製造商以及整個原始設備製造商處於有利地位。因此對中國的未來持正面看法。

Got it. And any color on -- you called out labor inflation again with other costs. Any way to frame how large this is in terms of dollars or the impact that's dragging your margins this year?

知道了。任何顏色——你再次提到勞動力通膨和其他成本。有什麼方法可以描述一下以美元計算的影響有多大，或是影響今年的利潤率嗎？

Yes. I mean we expect it actually to be about the same level as we had last year, which, what we said, would be somewhere mid-single digit above normal inflation. So pre '23, basically. And we're also giving some breakdown here on the slides on our -- on the labor cost of our -- as a percent of sales. So with that, you can calculate what the impact is. And that's the major inflation we're expecting. Then on top of that, we also expect some energy increases basically as a surcharge on materials that we're buying, especially on textiles. So those are the main 2 components.

是的。我的意思是，我們預計實際通膨率將與去年的水平大致相同，正如我們所說，這將比正常通膨率高出中個位數。所以基本上是 23 年前。我們也在幻燈片上對我們的勞動成本佔銷售額的百分比進行了一些細分。這樣，您就可以計算出影響是什麼。這就是我們預期的主要通膨。除此之外，我們也預期能源價格會增加，基本上作為我們購買的材料（尤其是紡織品）的附加費。這些是主要的兩個組成部分。

And the next question comes from the line of Giulio Pescatore from BNP Paribas Exane.

下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行 Exane 的 Giulio Pescatore。

The first one on the buyback. Just wondering if you'd be comfortable getting closer to the upper end of the leverage range in 2024, especially considering a further uplift in margin potentially in 2025 and the good cash flow generation you expect for this year.

第一個是回購。只是想知道您是否願意在 2024 年接近槓桿範圍的上限，特別是考慮到 2025 年利潤率可能進一步提高以及您預計今年將產生良好的現金流。

Then my second question on inflation and compensation. You mentioned that you expect full compensation for costs. Does that mean at the end of the year. So we shouldn't expect full compensation on 2024 as a whole but by the end of the year, you think you can have full compensation with potentially some slippage in the first few months. Is that a fair way to describe it?

然後我的第二個問題是關於通貨膨脹和薪水的。您提到您希望獲得全額費用補償。是不是意味著年底了。因此，我們不應期望在 2024 年全年獲得全額補償，但到年底，您認為您可以獲得全額補償，但在前幾個月可能會出現一些下滑。這是一個公平的描述方式嗎？

Thank you for your question. On the buybacks, as you know, we only report on what we have done on a regular basis through our web page here. We are, I mean, very committed to our program that we have. And I think you can see that we have, in the fourth quarter here, a healthy level of buybacks. And, of course, we are focusing a lot on making sure that we have the cash flow generation needed. And as you see from the report here, we are committed to be a shareholder-friendly company when it comes to both the regular dividend and also to the buyback program, and we will come back on that as we progress here. But that's as much as I could say here today.

謝謝你的問題。如您所知，關於回購，我們僅透過此處的網頁定期報告我們所做的事情。我的意思是，我們非常致力於我們現有的計劃。我認為你可以看到我們第四季的回購水準處於健康水準。當然，我們非常注重確保我們擁有所需的現金流。正如您從此處的報告中看到的那樣，在定期股息和回購計劃方面，我們致力於成為一家對股東友好的公司，隨著我們的進展，我們將回到這一點。但這就是我今天能在這裡說的。

Regarding the inflation, there is a lead time. And as we have indicated here already, you see, let's say, the cost effect from inflation hitting us earlier in the year, and then we have the negotiation throughout the year. And in the same fashion as we were stating last year, our focus here is to get the full compensation and the height of the compensation rather than looking at the quarter-by-quarter here. So it's the full year compensation that is the priority and the height of it. So therefore, you get this, let's say, new seasonality, if we call it that, where you have, obviously, Q1 and then revenue improved throughout the year. So that's the reason behind that.

關於通貨膨脹，有一個提前期。正如我們已經在這裡指出的，你看，比方說，今年早些時候通膨對我們造成的成本影響，然後我們全年都在進行談判。正如我們去年所說的那樣，我們的重點是獲得全額補償和補償的高度，而不是逐季查看。因此，全年薪酬是重中之重，也是重中之重。因此，你會得到這個，比方說，新的季節性，如果我們這麼稱呼它，顯然，第一季度，然後全年收入都有所改善。這就是背後的原因。

I don't know if you would like to add anything there, Fredrik?

我不知道你是否願意添加任何內容，弗雷德里克？

No. Well, overall, our expectation is we should be compensated also for the full year effect. And then that was also the case in 2023, whereas 2022, with the raw material compensation, there was a component that we were not compensated for in '22. Hence, there was a carryover effect into '23, but we don't expect that same pattern for '24.

不。總體而言，我們的期望是我們也應該因全年影響而得到補償。 2023 年也是如此，而 2022 年，在原料補償的情況下，有一個部分我們在 22 年沒有得到補償。因此，23 年會有延續效應，但我們預期 24 年不會出現同樣的模式。

And the next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的伊曼紐·羅斯納。

My first question, I was hoping to ask you about could you comment a little bit more about your path towards the 12% reiterated operating margin target? I very much appreciate the scorecard that you put at the end of the slide deck. So if I'm understanding it correctly, it looks like production is probably in the right level at least, maybe cost recovery sort of like offset by some of your cost reduction programs. So is the main impediment to getting to your targets, the call-off accuracy? And if so, I guess, what is the line of sight? Is it fair to assume that this will normalize? Or are there further actions that you need to get you to these targets?

我的第一個問題是，我想問您，您能否對您實現重申的 12% 營業利潤率目標的道路發表更多評論？我非常感謝您放在投影片末尾的記分卡。因此，如果我理解正確的話，看起來生產可能至少處於正確的水平，也許成本回收有點像被一些成本削減計劃所抵消。那麼，達到目標的主要障礙是取消的準確性嗎？如果是這樣，我想視線是什麼？假設這將會正常化是否公平？或者您需要採取進一步的行動來實現這些目標嗎？

Okay. I mean there's a lot of components in your question. So overall, the framework is, I think, pretty clear. $85 million, we say as it looks right now in '24, $85 million seems to be in place as an assumption here for 2024. Then when it comes to the other 2 that we are made whole on the inflation compensation, that will potentially have an impact also on a full year as long as we have inflation and there's always this catch-up effect from when the costs come in until we are compensated for. Again, here, our ambition is to have that also in place for 2024, but that remains to be seen also how inflation develops during the year.

好的。我的意思是你的問題中有很多成分。總的來說，我認為框架非常清晰。 8500 萬美元，我們現在看來是在 24 年，8500 萬美元似乎是 2024 年的假設。然後，當涉及到另外兩個時，我們在通貨膨脹補償方面已經完全了，這可能會只要存在通貨膨脹，就會對全年產生影響，並且從成本增加到我們得到補償之間總會存在這種追趕效應。同樣，我們的目標是在 2024 年也實現這一目標，但這也有待觀察年內通膨如何發展。

Then the last component is on call-off stability and here, we have a graph in our presentation where it's clearly not in place going into the year. I mean we've seen it kind of stabilizing at around 90% now or during the second half of last year. We are not assuming right now that this will improve significantly during 2024. And then there's also -- even if it were to come up to pre-pandemic levels, closer to the 100%, there's also a time lag of when say that accuracy is actually in place until we can also get the efficiency out in our network.

最後一個組成部分是關於取消穩定性，在這裡，我們在簡報中有一個圖表，其中顯然在今年沒有到位。我的意思是，我們現在或去年下半年已經看到它穩定在 90% 左右。我們現在並不假設這一情況會在 2024 年期間顯著改善。而且，即使達到大流行前的水平，接近 100%，準確率也存在時間滯後。直到我們也能提高網路效率為止。

So it -- yes, it's trending towards the framework, but for sure, 2024, it will not be in place and it remains to be seen how much of that -- the #2 and 3 here will come in place during '24, and then what the impact is for '25.

所以它——是的，它正朝著框架的方向發展，但可以肯定的是，到2024 年，它不會到位，其中有多少還有待觀察——這裡的#2 和3 將在24 年期間到位，那麼對 25 世紀的影響是什麼？

Looking at the building blocks of how to get from the 8.8% that we had now in '23, up to the 12%. It's roughly -- you can divide into 3 buckets. One is the structural initiatives and the headcount reductions. The second one is the volatility improvement, combined with the labor productivity development. And then the third component is sales growth and our strategic initiatives. And it's roughly, I would say, 1/3 margin contribution from those 3 buckets.

看看如何從 23 年現在的 8.8% 提高到 12%。大致可分為 3 個桶子。一是結構性措施和裁員。第二個是波動性的改善，結合勞動生產力的發展。第三個組成部分是銷售成長和我們的策略舉措。我想說，這大約是這 3 個部分的 1/3 利潤貢獻。

So let me just hone in for my second question on the sales growth piece of it. As we look past this year and towards some of your targets, I think we started in the past, you had reported sometimes on your annual win rate. And oftentimes, they were at like 50% or better. Obviously, your market share, you reported that 45%. What is your -- can you comment on the win rates? And I guess what is the confidence level in being able to capture additional market share over the next few years beyond the 2024 framework?

因此，讓我來討論一下關於銷售成長部分的第二個問題。當我們回顧今年並朝著你們的一些目標邁進時，我想我們從過去就開始了，你們有時會報告你們的年度勝率。通常情況下，他們的成功率約為 50% 或更高。顯然，你報告的市佔率是 45%。能評論一下勝率嗎？我猜想在 2024 年框架之後的未來幾年內能夠獲得額外市場份額的信心是多少？

Yes. As you know, we have, since last year, communicated here around the lifetime revenue on the order intake. And I think, we had a very good 2023 and the highest in 5 years here in terms of lifetime revenue. And what we are saying here is that we reached the 45% market share in 2023, which we have indicated since some years back that, that was what we expected us to grow into. And with the order intake and the order book we have, we expect to defend this market share.

是的。如您所知，自去年以來，我們一直在此圍繞訂單量的終身收入進行溝通。我認為，我們在 2023 年度過了非常美好的一年，就終身收入而言，是 5 年來最高的一年。我們在這裡所說的是，我們在 2023 年達到了 45% 的市場份額，幾年前我們就已經表示，這就是我們期望的發展目標。憑藉我們的訂單量和訂單簿，我們預計將捍衛這一市場份額。

We do not have, I would say, a target or an ambition to set a new level of our market share here. It is really to defend this market share position with healthy business, of course. If we can grow more in a healthy way, of course, we will do it, but it's not targeting itself. So the growth that we expect going forward, the 2% to 4%, as I talked about, and we have announced earlier beyond 2024 is connected to Light Vehicle Production and content with more sophisticated products.

我想說，我們沒有將我們的市場份額提高到新水平的目標或雄心。當然，這實際上是為了透過健康的業務來捍衛這一市場份額地位。如果我們能夠以健康的方式成長更多，我們當然會這樣做，但這並不是針對它自己。因此，我們預計未來的成長，即 2% 至 4%，正如我所談到的，在我們早些時候宣布的 2024 年之後，與輕型汽車生產和更複雜產品的滿足有關。

And the next question comes from the line of Michael Jacks from Bank of America Securities.

下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的麥可傑克斯。

First one, just on price recoveries. Some other suppliers have struggled to compensation for wage inflation and Autoliv has clearly been more successful. Is there anything structural you could point towards that gives you the confidence that you can achieve the same in 2024?

第一個，只是價格恢復。其他一些供應商一直在努力補償薪資上漲，而奧托立夫顯然更成功。您是否可以提出任何結構性的建議，讓您有信心在 2024 年實現相同的目標？

And then the second question is just on working capital. What is the magnitude of improvement expected in 2024 in relation to the remaining gap of $220 million to the $800 million reduction target that you have in mind?

第二個問題是關於營運資金的。與您心目中的 8 億美元削減目標之間尚有 2.2 億美元的差距，預計 2024 年的改善幅度是多少？

Thank you. Let me start with the price recovery and Fredrik will comment on the working capital there.

謝謝。讓我從價格復甦開始，弗雷德里克將評論那裡的營運資金。

But on the price recovery, I can't say that it's structural to it. I think it's -- I mean, of course, I can only comment on what we are doing here. And we have now, for the last 2 years, have had very constructive dialogues with our customers around the over and above normal cost increases we see in the system here. And I mean, we're starting out with raw materials. And there, we have also mentioned that we have made some indication -- higher level of indexation to those contracts here also. So I mean, it works both ways, obviously. So when we see that come down, we will also hand that back to our customers.

但就價格復甦而言，我不能說這是結構性的。我認為——我的意思是，當然，我只能評論我們在這裡所做的事情。在過去的兩年裡，我們已經與客戶就我們在系統中看到的超出正常成本的增加進行了非常有建設性的對話。我的意思是，我們從原料開始。在那裡，我們也提到，我們已經做出了一些指示——這些合約的指數化程度也更高。所以我的意思是，顯然它是雙向的。因此，當我們看到這種情況下降時，我們也會將其回饋給我們的客戶。

When it comes to the other components here, it's a little bit different to its nature. But I think it's very important to get compensation for what is the inflationary component here. And we, for this year definitely, have the labor in focus here. And I mean that's the nature of inflation. It needs to be passed on to the end consumer here and meaning the price of the car at the end of the day. So we need to push that on because there is no possibility for us to compensate our suppliers unless we get the pass on here. It's not sustainable, and that's something we also need to continue to work hard with and we will do that. And that's our focus here going forward as well.

當談到這裡的其他組件時，它的性質有點不同。但我認為，獲得通貨膨脹成分的補償非常重要。今年我們肯定會重點關注勞動力問題。我的意思是，這就是通貨膨脹的本質。它需要傳遞給最終消費者，這意味著汽車最終的價格。所以我們需要推動這一點，因為除非我們在這裡獲得通過，否則我們不可能補償我們的供應商。這是不可持續的，我們也需要繼續努力，我們會這樣做。這也是我們未來的重點。

And Michael, on your second question, working capital. Yes, so we reported here that we have achieved around $580 million of the $800 million target that we set ourselves. In the $800 million target, we had also detailed that around $500 million of that would come to improved payables. And that we have achieved or even overachieved already to date. So we don't expect more to be contributed from that component.

邁克爾，關於你的第二個問題，營運資金。是的，所以我們在這裡報告說，我們已經實現了我們設定的 8 億美元目標中的約 5.8 億美元。在 8 億美元的目標中，我們也詳細說明其中約 5 億美元將用於改善應付帳款。到目前為止，我們已經取得了成就，甚至超越了成就。因此，我們預計該組件不會做出更多貢獻。

So the inventory is challenging right now due to the call-off volatility as we show here that it's kind of stabilizing still to the core levels. And as I mentioned, we don't expect this to improve significantly during 2024. And accordingly, we do not also expect that we will be able to do so much on the inventory side either in 2024. And we do not guide for working capital specifically, but you see a very strong operating cash flow guidance here of $1.2 billion, but there is then more opportunity coming later from improving working capital further.

因此，由於取消波動，庫存目前面臨挑戰，正如我們在此表明的那樣，庫存仍穩定在核心水平。正如我所提到的，我們預計這種情況在 2024 年不會有顯著改善。因此，我們也不預期 2024 年我們能夠在庫存方面做這麼多。而且我們不指導營運資本具體來說，但您會看到這裡的營運現金流指導非常強勁，為12 億美元，但以後進一步改善營運資本會帶來更多機會。

And the question comes from the line of Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken.

這個問題來自德國商業銀行的Hampus Engellau。

Two questions for me. Despite (inaudible). But I'm curious about the drop in Active Seatbelts sales during the quarter, minus 11%, given the big spread to the LVP that increased by more than 9%. If you don't have, we can take that later, but it's just my curiosity. I had -- I mean, sorry to come back on this cost inflation because I'm trying to understand the dynamics here. I can definitely see that the OEMs are retroactively compensating you guys for rising cost in the quarters. But on the labor side, could you maybe give us some more detail on how those negations are going, given that those cost savings are quite permanent and sticky? And are you guys getting compensated retroactively for these also? And well, how does the process work?

有兩個問題問我。儘管（聽不清楚）。但我對本季主動式安全帶銷量下降（-11%）感到好奇，因為 LVP 的增幅超過 9%。如果你沒有，我們可以稍後再做，但這只是我的好奇心。我的意思是，很抱歉再次討論成本通膨問題，因為我正在努力了解這裡的動態。我可以肯定地看到，原始設備製造商正在追溯補償你們本季成本上升的情況。但在勞工方面，考慮到這些成本節約是相當永久性和黏性的，您能否給我們更多關於這些否定的進展的細節？你們是否也因此獲得了追溯補償？那麼，這個過程是如何進行的呢？

I think on the Active Seatbelt side, there's no drama into that. Of course, you get mix effect also in specific years where you have maybe some outgoing car models where you had a high level of, in this case, Active Seatbelts. And my expectation here is that you should see that recovery -- recovering in the next year here. So no drama to that, it's more of a temporary mix effect.

我認為在主動安全帶方面，沒有什麼戲劇性的。當然，在特定年份，您也會獲得混合效應，您可能會推出一些配備高水準主動安全帶的車型。我的期望是，你們應該看到這種復甦——明年在這裡復甦。所以這沒什麼戲劇性的，它更多的是一種臨時的混合效果。

Then on the cost compensation here, if I understand you right. I mean the nature of -- I mean, as you said, labor cost increase is sticky, and therefore, it's -- I mean, it will not come down. I think we can call it. So of course, there is an absolute necessity that, that inflationary component has to come through. There is no room for anything else, and that is what we are doing here. And we, of course, have very detailed supporting documents to -- when we go to our customers, how that connects to their specific business and how it's correlated. So that's something we need to go through. And I mean we went through that partly already last year when we saw in some cases and in some regions, that impact already in 2023. So we expect to do more of that.

那麼關於這裡的成本補償，如果我理解正確的話。我的意思是，正如你所說，勞動成本的成長是黏性的，因此，我的意思是，它不會下降。我想我們可以這樣稱呼它。因此，當然，通膨因素絕對有必要克服。沒有空間容納其他任何東西，這就是我們在這裡所做的。當然，我們有非常詳細的支援文件——當我們去找客戶時，這些文件如何與他們的特定業務連結以及如何關聯。所以這是我們需要經歷的事情。我的意思是，去年我們已經部分經歷過這種情況，當時我們在某些​​情況下和某些地區看到了這種影響，到2023 年就已經產生了這種影響。所以我們預計會做更多這樣的事情。

And our question comes from the line of Bjorn Enarson from Danske Bank.

我們的問題來自丹斯克銀行的 Bjorn Enarson。

I have a question also on price. I mean, you have been very successful in getting compensation, but also we have seen, I mean, OEMs coming from high probability. And as I say, you mentioned yourself, we need to see inflation coming to the price of the cars. But we have also seen price cuts on cars. We've also seen OEMs reporting lower profitability and accepting perhaps a lower profitability as they are investing in price in a way, is this a situation that impact some suppliers in general? Or how has it been in the past? That's my first question.

我還有一個關於價格的問題。我的意思是，你們在獲得補償方面非常成功，但我們也看到，我的意思是，原始設備製造商來自高機率。正如我所說，您提到了自己，我們需要看到汽車價格出現通貨膨脹。但我們也看到汽車降價。我們也看到原始設備製造商報告盈利能力較低，並接受可能較低的盈利能力，因為他們在某種程度上投資於價格，這種情況是否會影響某些供應商？或者說過去的情況如何？這是我的第一個問題。

Thank you, Bjorn. No, I think I see what you're referring to here. But I mean, first of all, it has never been easy these negotiations, not even when we saw record profitability at the OEMs. And I think the point from my side here is that it has nothing to do with their profitability or our profitability. This is inflation that needs to be passed on. It's not sustainable for us to pay our suppliers unless we can get the pass-through. So that's just something that we are very firm on and needs to continue to be firm on. There is no other way than that.

謝謝你，比約恩。不，我想我明白你在這裡指的是什麼。但我的意思是，首先，這些談判從來都不容易，即使我們看到原始設備製造商創紀錄的獲利能力也是如此。我認為我的觀點是，這與他們的獲利能力或我們的獲利能力無關。這就是需要傳遞的通貨膨脹。除非我們能夠獲得轉嫁，否則我們向供應商付款是不可持續的。所以這就是我們非常堅定並且需要繼續堅定的事情。除此之外，沒有其他辦法。

Then I think when you look at the price reductions and so on towards the end consumers, I think there is, of course, different reasons for that you see those prices coming down, which probably is more on an individual basis between the OEMs. So I have no comments around that, but we need to focus on our business here, which we are doing, so just to continue to press on there.

然後我認為，當你看到面向最終消費者的降價等情況時，我認為當然有不同的原因導致這些價格下降，這可能更多地取決於原始設備製造商之間的個體情況。所以我對此沒有任何評論，但我們需要專注於我們正在做的業務，所以要繼續努力。

And just a follow-up and perhaps in the past, we have not really seen a correlation between car prices and your price negotiations. I mean, you have your negotiations with the team at your customers and then there are other teams setting the price for -- on the actual cars? Or is there a correlation?

只是後續行動，也許在過去，我們還沒有真正看到汽車價格和你們的價格談判之間的相關性。我的意思是，您與客戶團隊進行談判，然後還有其他團隊在實際汽車上設定價格？或者說有什麼相關性嗎？

No. I mean, not -- from our perspective, there's no correlation, and I think that's my point here that they need -- I mean each company takes care of their business. And in our case here, we need to get compensation for the inflation in our system, which includes...

不，我的意思是，不是——從我們的角度來看，沒有相關性，我認為這就是我的觀點，他們需要——我的意思是每家公司都照顧自己的業務。在我們的例子中，我們需要為我們系統中的通貨膨脹獲得補償，其中包括...

And one more thing. I mean, last year, I'd like to remember that you had an outlook that was based on an LVP a little bit below what was in the market back then or by S&P and now you are in line with them. And last year, we also saw this catch-up driven sales and now it's more assets you highlight more in line with the market. Is there a nervousness on where the market will end up when you are talking to your customers or people in the industry as we are maybe heading into more of a slowdown or more visible this year than last year?

還有一件事。我的意思是，去年，我想記住，您的前景是基於 LVP 略低於當時市場或標準普爾的水平，現在您與他們一致。去年，我們也看到了這種追趕驅動的銷售，現在你強調的資產更多，更符合市場。當您與客戶或業內人士交談時，您是否對市場最終走向何方感到緊張，因為今年我們可能會比去年更明顯地放緩或更明顯？

No, I think, I mean, at least from the dialogues we have with our customers on the way forward here, I don't see any discrepancies to what we refer to here as the minus 1% from S&P Global in general here. I think there is more of this mix effect between ICE and EVs especially in Europe, where maybe the EVs is slowing down somewhat, but it's more a mix effect there. And for us, that is neutral because as you know, we are well represented in both categories, and we are agnostic to the driveline question here. So we don't see the effect on our end here.

不，我認為，我的意思是，至少從我們與客戶就未來發展方向進行的對話來看，我認為我們在這裡所說的標準普爾全球總體負 1% 沒有任何差異。我認為內燃機和電動車之間有更多的混合效應，尤其是在歐洲，電動車的發展速度可能會放緩，但更多的是混合效應。對我們來說，這是中立的，因為如您所知，我們在這兩個類別中都有很好的代表，我們對這裡的傳動系統問題不可知。所以我們在這裡看不到對我們的影響。

Dear participants, due to time, we are not taking any further questions.

親愛的參與者，由於時間關係，我們不會再回答任何問題。

I would like now to hand the conference over to Mikael Bratt for any closing remarks.

現在我想將會議交給米凱爾布拉特 (Mikael Bratt) 發表閉幕詞。

Thank you very much, Nadia. I am confident that we will deliver a substantial increase in sales, operating cash flow and adjusted operating income in 2024 while maintaining substantial shareholder return. Our actions are creating both short-term and long-term improvements, and we believe these actions enable us to take important steps towards our targets. While we remain agile and prepare for more adverse market development, should that be necessary.

非常感謝你，納迪亞。我相信，我們將在 2024 年實現銷售額、經營現金流量和調整後營業收入的大幅成長，同時保持可觀的股東回報。我們的行動正在創造短期和長期的改進，我們相信這些行動使我們能夠朝著我們的目標邁出重要的一步。雖然我們保持敏捷並為更不利的市場發展做好準備，但如果有必要的話。

Autoliv continues to focus on our vision of saving more lives, which is our most important direct contribution to a sustainable society.

奧托立夫繼續專注於拯救更多生命的願景，這是我們對永續社會最重要的直接貢獻。

Our first quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, April 26, 2024. Thank you, everyone, for participating in today's call. We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv. Until next time, stay safe.

我們的第一季財報電話會議定於 2024 年 4 月 26 日星期五舉行。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們衷心感謝您對奧托立夫的持續關注。直到下次，注意安全。

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.

我們今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。你們現在可以斷開連結了。祝你今天過得愉快。