Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Autoliv First Quarter 2023 Financial Results Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) Please note that today's conference is being recorded.

美好的一天，謝謝你的支持。歡迎參加 Autoliv 2023 年第一季度財務業績電話會議和網絡廣播。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to hand over to your speaker, Mr. Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想請您的發言人，投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp 先生髮言。請繼續。

Thank you, [Rafaya]. Welcome everyone to our first quarter 2023 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin; and (inaudible), VP, Investor Relations.

謝謝你，[拉法亞]。歡迎大家參加我們 2023 年第一季度的財報電話會議。在這次電話會議上，我們有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Mikael Bratt；以及我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin；和（聽不清）投資者關係副總裁。

During today's earnings call, Mikael and Fredrik will, among other things, provide an overview of the strong sales development in the first quarter, discuss operating leverage and outline the expected sequential margin improvement for 2023 as well as provide an update on our general business and market conditions. We will then remain available to respond to your questions. And as usual, the slides are available at autoliv.com.

在今天的財報電話會議上，Mikael 和 Fredrik 將概述第一季度強勁的銷售發展，討論運營槓桿並概述 2023 年預期的連續利潤率改善，並提供我們一般業務的最新情況和市場狀況。然後我們將隨時可以回答您的問題。和往常一樣，這些幻燈片可在 autoliv.com 上獲取。

Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and, of course, includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference some non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly press release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC.

轉到下一張幻燈片。我們有安全港聲明，它是本演示文稿的組成部分，當然也包括隨後的問答環節。在演示過程中，我們將參考一些非美國公認會計原則的措施。我們在 autoliv.com 上發布的季度新聞稿和將提交給美國證券交易委員會的 10-Q 中披露了歷史上美國 GAAP 與非美國 GAAP 措施的調節。

Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 p.m. Central European Time. So please follow a limit of 2 questions per person.

最後，我要提一下，本次電話會議預計在下午 3:00 結束。中歐時間。因此，請遵循每人 2 個問題的限制。

I now hand over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

我現在將工作交給我們的首席執行官 Mikael Bratt。

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. I would like to start by thanking our employees for a good execution, supporting our strong growth in a challenging environment. The sales performance and strong profit recovery was in line with our earlier communicated expectations. Thanks to a strong ending of the quarter, our organic sales grew by more than 20%, outperforming light vehicle production significantly. The strong growth was a result of product launches, higher prices and higher safety content per vehicle and also supported by a positive regional mix.

謝謝你，安德斯。查看下一張幻燈片。首先，我要感謝我們的員工出色的執行力，支持我們在充滿挑戰的環境中實現強勁增長。銷售業績和強勁的利潤恢復符合我們早先傳達的預期。得益於本季度的強勁表現，我們的有機銷售額增長了 20% 以上，顯著優於輕型汽車產量。強勁的增長是產品發布、更高的價格和每輛車更高的安全含量的結果，同時也得到了積極的區域組合的支持。

Our profit development was as expected considering that market conditions continued to be challenging, especially in Europe, with significant inflationary pressure and continued customer call-off volatility. Mainly due to strong sales growth (inaudible), adverse working capital development led to a negative cash flow in the quarter. We expect (inaudible) cash flow trend for the rest of the year.

考慮到市場條件仍然充滿挑戰，尤其是在歐洲，存在巨大的通脹壓力和持續的客戶取消波動，我們的利潤發展符合預期。主要是由於強勁的銷售增長（聽不清），不利的營運資金發展導致本季度出現負現金流。我們預計今年剩餘時間的（聽不清）現金流趨勢。

Our leverage ratio increased to 1.6x to 1.4x, 3 months ago. In the quarter, we paid $0.66 per share in dividends and repurchased and retired 450,000 shares. We issued our first green bond that allows us to reach new investors and, at the same time, help fund advancement our climate targets. We have a strong commitment to climate action, and this is a milestone in supporting our customers in achieving their sustainability ambitions.

3 個月前，我們的槓桿比率增加到 1.6 倍至 1.4 倍。本季度，我們支付了每股 0.66 美元的股息，並回購和退役了 450,000 股。我們發行了第一隻綠色債券，使我們能夠接觸到新的投資者，同時幫助資助推進我們的氣候目標。我們對氣候行動有著堅定的承諾，這是支持我們的客戶實現其可持續發展目標的里程碑。

We are expanding to Vietnam, investing in increased production capacity of airbag cushions in Asia for Asia. We saw updates to crash test standards and safety regulations in the U.S. and in India, which will support continued increase in safety content per vehicle already this year as well as coming years. We also continue to look for ways to improve our footprint and reduce our costs structurally. The first quarter development (inaudible), and we continue to expect a gradual improving adjusted operating margin during the year. This should allow us to reach the full year indications we set at the beginning of the year.

我們正在向越南擴張，在亞洲投資提高安全氣囊墊的產能。我們看到美國和印度更新了碰撞測試標準和安全法規，這將支持今年和未來幾年每輛車的安全內容持續增加。我們還繼續尋找改善足跡並從結構上降低成本的方法。第一季度的發展（聽不清），我們繼續預計年內調整後的營業利潤率將逐步提高。這應該使我們能夠達到我們在年初設定的全年指標。

Now looking at the expected adjusted operating margin progression for 2023 on the next slide. For 2023, we expect a gradual improvement of the adjusted operating margin quarter by quarter, similar to the [trajectory] in 2022. We expect continued high sales growth, supported by launches, higher light vehicle production and content per vehicle [income]. We anticipate price adjustments will gradually throughout the year offset cost inflation that affects us in the first quarter.

現在在下一張幻燈片中查看 2023 年預期的調整後營業利潤率進展。對於 2023 年，我們預計調整後的營業利潤率將逐季度逐步改善，類似於 2022 年的[軌跡]。我們預計在發布、更高的輕型汽車產量和每輛車的內容 [收入] 的支持下，銷量將持續高速增長。我們預計全年價格調整將逐漸抵消影響我們第一季度的成本通脹。

The positive trajectory will be further supported by improvements from cost reduction, footprint optimization as well as expected gradual improvement of the supply chain and light vehicle production stability. Effects are limited in the first half of the year and significantly larger in the second half of the year. (inaudible) makes me confident in a gradual improving performance, which would allow us to deliver a significant full year increase in cash flow and adjusted operating income.

積極的軌跡將得到成本降低、足跡優化以及供應鍊和輕型汽車生產穩定性預期逐步改善的改善的進一步支持。上半年影響有限，下半年影響明顯加大。 （聽不清）讓我對業績的逐步改善充滿信心，這將使我們能夠實現全年現金流量和調整後營業收入的顯著增長。

Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales increased by USD 2.5 billion, a record for the first quarter. This was close to USD 370 million or 17% higher than a year earlier despite $77 million or 4 percentage point currency headwind. Price volume mix contributed with USD 444 million. Looking on the regional sales split, Asia accounted for 38%, Americas was 33% and Europe was 29%. The China share decreased from 21% a year ago to 18% now as light vehicle production grew in all regions in the quarter, except in China, where it declined significantly. We outlined our organic sales growth compared to light vehicle production on the next slide.

現在在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地了解我們的銷售增長。我們的綜合淨銷售額增加了 25 億美元，創下第一季度的記錄。儘管有 7700 萬美元或 4 個百分點的匯率逆風，但仍接近 3.7 億美元或比去年同期高出 17%。價量組合貢獻了 4.44 億美元。從區域銷售分佈來看，亞洲佔 38%，美洲佔 33%，歐洲佔 29%。中國的份額從一年前的 21% 下降到現在的 18%，因為本季度所有地區的輕型汽車產量都在增長，但中國除外，該地區的產量大幅下降。我們在下一張幻燈片中概述了與輕型汽車生產相比的有機銷售增長。

I am very pleased that our organic sales growth significantly outperformed global light vehicle production growth in the first quarter. This was achieved as we continued to execute on our strong order book. According to S&P Global, light vehicle production increased by around 6% year-over-year in the quarter. This was slightly higher than expectations in the beginning of the quarter. Based on the latest light vehicle production numbers, we outperformed global light vehicle production by around 15 percentage points in the quarter.

我很高興第一季度我們的有機銷售增長顯著優於全球輕型汽車產量增長。這是在我們繼續執行我們強大的訂單簿時實現的。根據標普全球的數據，本季度輕型汽車產量同比增長約 6%。這略高於本季度初的預期。根據最新的輕型車產量數據，我們在本季度的表現比全球輕型車產量高出約 15 個百分點。

In the quarter, we outperformed in Japan by 17 percentage points, in China by 16 percentage points and in Europe by 14 points. Compared to the fourth quarter last year, light vehicle production in the first quarter fell by around 4%. Despite this, our sales increased by 7% sequentially, supported by new launches, market share gains and content per vehicle growth. We expect these positive sales trend to continue, and we expect to outperform light vehicle production by around 12 percentage points for the full year 2023.

在本季度，我們在日本的表現優於 17 個百分點，在中國領先 16 個百分點，在歐洲領先 14 個百分點。與去年第四季度相比，第一季度輕型車產量下降了約4%。儘管如此，在新發布、市場份額增加和每輛車內容增長的支持下，我們的銷售額環比增長了 7%。我們預計這些積極的銷售趨勢將持續下去，我們預計 2023 年全年的輕型汽車產量將高出約 12 個百分點。

Looking now on financials in more detail on the next slide. The strong sales increase led to a substantial improvement in adjusted operating income, including effects of capacity alignment and antitrust-related matters, which increased from $68 million to $131 million. The adjusted operating margin was 5.3% in the quarter, an increase of [2.1] percentage points from the same period last year. Operating cash flow was negative $46 million, which was $116 million lower than the same period last year, mainly from adverse working capital as an effect of significantly higher sales level towards the end of the quarter. Fredrik will provide further components of cash flow later in the presentation.

現在在下一張幻燈片上更詳細地查看財務信息。強勁的銷售增長導致調整後的營業收入大幅改善，包括產能調整和反壟斷相關事宜的影響，從 6800 萬美元增加到 1.31 億美元。本季度調整後的營業利潤率為 5.3%，比去年同期增長 [2.1] 個百分點。經營現金流為負 4600 萬美元，比去年同期減少 1.16 億美元，這主要是由於本季度末銷售水平顯著提高而導致營運資金不利。 Fredrik 將在稍後的演示中提供更多的現金流組成部分。

On the next slide, we see some key model launches from the first quarter.

在下一張幻燈片中，我們看到了第一季度推出的一些關鍵型號。

In the quarter, we had a high number of product launches, especially in China and Europe. The models shown on this slide have an [Autoliv] content per vehicle from approximately USD 140 to close to USD 550. These models reflect the changes seen in the automotive industry in recent years, with several relative new OEMs represented and that 6 out of 9 (inaudible) as pure EV. In terms of Autoliv sales potential, the Subaru launches are the most significant. The long-term trend to higher content per vehicle is supported by front center airbag, more advanced seatbelt and pedestrian protection airbags.

本季度，我們推出了大量產品，尤其是在中國和歐洲。這張幻燈片上顯示的模型每輛車的 [Autoliv] 含量從大約 140 美元到接近 550 美元不等。這些模型反映了近年來汽車行業的變化，代表了幾個相對較新的原始設備製造商，9 個中有 6 個（聽不清）作為純電動汽車。就奧托立夫的銷售潛力而言，斯巴魯的發布最為重要。前中央安全氣囊、更先進的安全帶和行人保護安全氣囊支持每輛車更高含量的長期趨勢。

I will now hand it over to our CFO, Fredrik Westin, who will talk about the financials on the next few slides.

我現在將其交給我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin，他將在接下來的幾張幻燈片中討論財務狀況。

Thank you, Mikael Bratt. This slide highlights the key figures for the first quarter of 2023 compared to the first quarter of 2022. Our net sales were $2.5 billion, this was 17% higher than the first quarter of 2022. The gross profit increased by 32% to $379 million, while the gross margin increased to 15.2%. The gross profit increase was primarily driven by price increases, volume growth and lower costs for premium freight. In the quarter, we made $4 million in provisions for capacity alignment activities and antitrust-related matters. The adjusted operating income increased from $68 million to $131 million. The adjusted operating margin increased from 3.2% to 5.3%.

謝謝你，米凱爾布拉特。這張幻燈片突出顯示了 2023 年第一季度與 2022 年第一季度相比的關鍵數據。我們的淨銷售額為 25 億美元，比 2022 年第一季度增長 17%。毛利潤增長 32% 至 3.79 億美元，而毛利率則上升至15.2%。毛利潤的增長主要是由於價格上漲、銷量增長和優質運費成本下降。本季度，我們為產能調整活動和反壟斷相關事宜撥備了 400 萬美元。調整後的營業收入從 6800 萬美元增加到 1.31 億美元。調整後的營業利潤率從 3.2% 增加到 5.3%。

We do recognize that the operating leverage on the strong sales growth was limited in the quarter, and I will explain more when we go through the operating income bridge. The operating cash flow was negative $46 million. Earnings per share diluted decreased by $0.08, where the main driver was $0.52 from capacity alignments and $0.05 from taxes, partly offset by $0.51 from higher adjusted operating income. Our adjusted return on capital employed and return on equity increased to 13% and 12%, respectively. We paid a dividend of $0.66 per share in the quarter and repurchased and retired around 450,000 shares for $42 million under our stock repurchase program.

我們確實認識到本季度強勁銷售增長的經營槓桿是有限的，當我們通過營業收入橋樑時我會解釋更多。經營現金流為負 4600 萬美元。每股攤薄收益減少 0.08 美元，其中主要驅動因素是產能調整 0.52 美元和稅收 0.05 美元，部分被調整後營業收入增加 0.51 美元所抵消。我們調整後的已動用資本回報率和股本回報率分別增至 13% 和 12%。我們在本季度支付了每股 0.66 美元的股息，並根據我們的股票回購計劃以 4200 萬美元的價格回購和退役了約 450,000 股股票。

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the first quarter of 2023, our adjusted operating income of [$131 million] was $63 million higher than the same quarter last year. The impact of raw material price changes was negative $12 million in the quarter. Foreign exchange impacted the operating profit negatively by $25 million. This was mainly a result of (inaudible) transaction effects from the Mexican peso. Costs for SG&A and RD&E net combined was $26 million higher, mainly due to higher personnel costs and projects.

現在看下一張幻燈片中調整後的營業收入橋。 2023 年第一季度，我們調整後的營業收入 [1.31 億美元] 比去年同期高出 6300 萬美元。本季度原材料價格變化的影響為負 1200 萬美元。外匯對營業利潤產生了 2500 萬美元的負面影響。這主要是墨西哥比索（聽不清）交易效應的結果。 SG&A 和 RD&E 的總成本淨額增加了 2600 萬美元，這主要是由於人員成本和項目成本增加。

Our operations were positively impacted by improved pricing higher volumes, lower cost per premium freight as well as our strategic initiatives, partly offset by the significant headwinds from general cost inflation. The impact of the strong sales growth was relatively low in the quarter as new product launches (inaudible) have a lower operating leverage initially. As a result, the leverage on the higher sales, excluding currency effects, was in the low end of our typical (inaudible) operational leverage range. The actions we are now taking that Mikael talked about previously should lead to significantly higher operating leverage, profitability and cash flow as the year progresses, very much like last year.

我們的運營受到價格提高、運量增加、每次保費運費成本降低以及我們的戰略舉措的積極影響，部分被一般成本通脹帶來的重大不利因素所抵消。由於新產品發布（聽不清）最初的運營槓桿較低，因此本季度強勁銷售增長的影響相對較低。因此，較高銷售額的槓桿率（不包括貨幣影響）處於我們典型（聽不清）運營槓桿率範圍的低端。 Mikael 之前談到的我們現在正在採取的行動應該會導致經營槓桿、盈利能力和現金流隨著今年的進展而顯著提高，與去年非常相似。

Looking now on the cash flow on the next slide. For the first quarter of '23, operating cash flow decreased by $116 million to a negative $46 million due to higher working capital and lower net income. During the quarter, trade working capital increased by $226 million, essentially from higher receivables. The higher receivables was a result of high sales towards the end of the quarter. The inefficiencies in inventories did not materially improve as light vehicle production continued to be volatile.

現在看下一張幻燈片的現金流量。 23 年第一季度，由於營運資金增加和淨收入下降，經營現金流減少 1.16 億美元至負 4600 萬美元。本季度，貿易營運資金增加了 2.26 億美元，主要是由於應收賬款增加。較高的應收賬款是本季度末銷售額高的結果。由於輕型汽車生產繼續波動，庫存效率低下並沒有實質性改善。

For the first quarter, capital expenditures net increased to $143 million from $17 million in the previous year's quarter. The first quarter last year was positively affected by the sales of a property in Japan for $95 million. Excluding the property sale, CapEx in relation to sales this quarter increased to 5.7% from 5.3% a year ago. The current high level of investment is related to the ongoing footprint activities and capacity expansion for growth, especially in China.

第一季度，資本支出從去年同期的 1700 萬美元淨增至 1.43 億美元。去年第一季度受到日本 9500 萬美元房產銷售的積極影響。不包括物業銷售，本季度與銷售相關的資本支出從一年前的 5.3% 增加到 5.7%。目前的高投資水平與正在進行的足跡活動和增長能力擴張有關，尤其是在中國。

For the first quarter of 2023, free cash flow was negative $189 million, $242 million lower than a year earlier. Although our cash flow was temporarily weaker in the first quarter, we expect a gradual positive cash flow development for the rest of the year from higher net income and a more stable sales level. Our full year indication is for an operating cash flow of $900 million and that is unchanged.

2023 年第一季度，自由現金流為負 1.89 億美元，比去年同期減少 2.42 億美元。儘管我們的現金流在第一季度暫時較弱，但我們預計今年剩餘時間的現金流會隨著更高的淨收入和更穩定的銷售水平而逐漸出現正增長。我們的全年指標是運營現金流為 9 億美元，這一數字沒有變化。

Now looking on our leverage ratio development on the next slide. The leverage ratio at the end of March 2023 was 1.6x. This was 0.2 higher than the previous quarter as the net debt increased proportionately more than the 12 months trailing adjusted EBITDA increased. We do remain committed to our 2022 to 2024 share repurchase program. And as you know, we are considering several factors when executing the program. As we have mentioned many times, we are not only considering the debt leverage ratio when deciding on the pace of the repurchases, we're also considering our balance sheet, cash flow outlook, the debt rating and the general business outlook. We always strive for the balance that is best for our shareholders, both long and short term.

現在在下一張幻燈片上查看我們的槓桿率發展。 2023 年 3 月末的槓桿率為 1.6 倍。這比上一季度高 0.2，因為淨債務按比例增加超過 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 增加。我們仍然致力於 2022 年至 2024 年的股票回購計劃。如您所知，我們在執行該程序時會考慮多個因素。正如我們多次提到的，我們在決定回購速度時不僅考慮債務槓桿率，還考慮我們的資產負債表、現金流前景、債務評級和總體業務前景。我們始終努力為我們的股東實現長期和短期的最佳平衡。

Now looking at the next slide. Sustainability is integrated into everything we do. By reducing the number of road fatalities and making transportation systems safer for everyone, our core business directly contributes to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs. During the first quarter, we successfully issued a first EUR 500 million green bond using Autoliv's sustainable financing framework aligned with the ICMA Green Bond Principles. The issuance drew significant interest from debt investors, leading to a successful pricing of the bond resulting in a coupon of 4.25%. The proceeds of our first Green Bond will be used exclusively for financing green projects, including clean transportation, renewable energy, energy efficiency and decarbonization of operations and products. With the projects financed by the Green Bond, we believe we can further contribute to sustainable society.

現在看下一張幻燈片。可持續性融入我們所做的一切。通過減少道路死亡人數並使交通系統對每個人都更安全，我們的核心業務直接為聯合國可持續發展目標 (SDG) 做出貢獻。第一季度，我們使用符合 ICMA 綠色債券原則的奧托立夫可持續融資框架，成功發行了第一筆 5 億歐元綠色債券。此次發行引起了債務投資者的極大興趣，導致債券成功定價，票面利率為 4.25%。我們第一筆綠色債券的收益將專門用於為綠色項目融資，包括清潔交通、可再生能源、能源效率以及運營和產品的脫碳。通過綠色債券資助的項目，我們相信我們可以進一步為可持續發展的社會做出貢獻。

Now looking at the liquidity position on to the next slide. At the end of the quarter, we had a strong liquidity position with [approximately] $1.8 billion in cash and unutilized committed credit facility. With a sustainable financing framework, we have diversified our long-term funding sources. We also have a maturity profile that is well spread out over the coming years. Note that none of our credit facilities are subject to financial covenants. With a leverage ratio of [1.6x], BBB S&P rating with stable outlook, a balanced maturity profile and a strong liquidity position, we are well positioned to operate in any environment.

現在查看下一張幻燈片的流動性狀況。在本季度末，我們擁有強大的流動性頭寸，擁有 [大約] 18 億美元的現金和未動用的承諾信貸額度。憑藉可持續的融資框架，我們實現了長期資金來源的多元化。我們還有一個在未來幾年內廣泛分佈的成熟度概況。請注意，我們的信貸設施均不受財務契約的約束。憑藉 [1.6 倍] 的槓桿率、BBB 標準普爾評級、穩定的前景、平衡的期限配置和強大的流動性狀況，我們有能力在任何環境下運營。

I'll now hand it back to you, Mikael.

我現在把它還給你，Mikael。

Thank you, Fredrik. Let's look at market environment and financial outlook for 2023 on the next few slides. Due to supply constraints of semiconductors, large part of the auto industry have been operating at or near recessionary levels. As the supply of semiconductors has improved somewhat, S&P Global has upgraded the near-term light vehicle production forecast. For second quarter, global light vehicle production is now expected by S&P Global to improve by 13% compared to last year.

謝謝你，弗雷德里克。讓我們在接下來的幾張幻燈片中看看 2023 年的市場環境和財務前景。由於半導體的供應限制，大部分汽車行業一直處於或接近衰退水平。由於半導體供應有所改善，標普全球上調了近期輕型車產量預測。對於第二季度，標準普爾全球現在預計全球輕型汽車產量將比去年增長 13%。

Compared to the first quarter, volumes are expected to be about unchanged. Despite concerns surrounding elevated vehicle pricing in some markets and deteriorating credit conditions, global production is corrected to increase by (inaudible) to close to $83 million in 2023, according to S&P Global. The Chinese market remains volatile short term due to the discontinuation of last year's lower purchase tax and the introduction of new emission rules leading to destocking of inventories at the dealerships.

與第一季度相比，預計銷量將基本保持不變。根據標準普爾全球的數據，儘管對某些市場的汽車價格上漲和信貸狀況惡化感到擔憂，但全球產量已修正為在 2023 年增加（聽不清）接近 8300 萬美元。由於去年較低的購置稅終止以及新排放規則的出台導致經銷商去庫存，中國市場短期內仍將波動。

Light vehicle production in North America is projected by S&P to increase by more than 5% in 2023. However, due to recessionary figures, the increasing inventory levels, the forecast for second half of 2023 has been revised lower. S&P outlook for European light vehicle production has increased by 300,000 units. However, we remain cautious regarding European vehicle demand for 2023. Looking at the 2023 financial indication on next slide.

標準普爾預計 2023 年北美輕型汽車產量將增長 5% 以上。但是，由於經濟衰退，庫存水平上升，2023 年下半年的預測已下調。標準普爾對歐洲輕型汽車產量的展望增加了 300,000 輛。但是，我們對 2023 年歐洲汽車需求仍持謹慎態度。在下一張幻燈片中查看 2023 年的財務指標。

Our full year 2023 indications are unchanged and exclude costs and gains from capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters and other discrete items. Our full year indication is based on light vehicle production growth assumption of around 3%. We expect sales to increase organically by around 15%. Currency translation effects are assumed to be around negative 1%. We expect an adjusted operating margin of around 8.5% to 9%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD 900 million. Our positive cash flow trend should allow for increasing shareholder returns.

我們的 2023 年全年指標保持不變，不包括產能調整、反壟斷相關事項和其他離散項目的成本和收益。我們的全年指標是基於 3% 左右的輕型汽車產量增長假設。我們預計銷售額將有機增長 15% 左右。假定貨幣換算效應約為負 1%。我們預計調整後的營業利潤率約為 8.5% 至 9%。營運現金流預計約為9億美元。我們積極的現金流趨勢應該會增加股東回報。

Turning to the next slide. I am looking forward to seeing you at our Investor Day, which will be held on Monday, June 12 at our technology center in Auburn Hills, Michigan, U.S. The focus of the events will be on medium- and long-term growth opportunities, world-leading products, our strategic road map as well as our innovation [wins] in optimization and operation efficiency and what progress we are making. The format is a half day with presentations by members of our executive management team and exhibitions of Autoliv's latest innovation and technologies showcased by subject matter experts. I'm looking forward to seeing many of you there.

轉到下一張幻燈片。我期待著在我們的投資者日見到您，該日將於 6 月 12 日星期一在我們位於美國密歇根州奧本山的技術中心舉行。活動的重點將是中長期增長機會，世界- 領先的產品，我們的戰略路線圖以及我們在優化和運營效率方面的創新 [wins] 以及我們正在取得的進展。活動為期半天，由我們的執行管理團隊成員進行演講，主題專家展示奧托立夫的最新創新和技術。我期待在那裡見到你們中的許多人。

Turning to the next slide. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions. I will now turn it back to [Rafaya].

轉到下一張幻燈片。我們對今天的收益電話會議的正式評論到此結束，我們想打開問題熱線。我現在將把它轉回 [Rafaya]。

(Operator Instructions) The questions come from the line of Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

（操作員說明）這些問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

Just in terms of the labor cost recoveries, any framing of any impact in Q1? And then I think in the past, you've kind of given an update of what sort of percent of contracts you've been able to renegotiate. Any sort of color there on how that's trending in Q1 and so far in Q2?

就勞動力成本回收而言，第一季度有何影響？然後我想在過去，你已經更新了你能夠重新談判的合同百分比。第一季度和第二季度到目前為止的趨勢如何？

When it comes to the price negotiations, I would say it's too early at this point to start to give you an indication (inaudible). I would say that it's in relation to the full year expectations here on the price adjustments, we are in the early stage here. And I would say it is a limited impact, but it is an impact in line with our expectation (inaudible) time. So what I would like to say here is that we're making the progress we need to do to support our confidence when it comes to for the full year here. But it's not meaningful to give a percentage points at this in time (inaudible) contracts connected to labor.

談到價格談判，我想說現在開始給你一個指示（聽不清）還為時過早。我想說的是，這與這裡對價格調整的全年預期有關，我們還處於早期階段。我會說這是一個有限的影響，但它是一個符合我們預期（聽不清）時間的影響。所以我想在這裡說的是，我們正在取得我們需要做的進展，以支持我們對全年的信心。但是，在這個與勞動相關的時間（聽不清）合同中給出一個百分點是沒有意義的。

Got it. And during the quarter, steel prices have jumped quite a bit. Can you just remind us sort of what your risk would be? Because I know you've changed the way your contracts are structured. So are there triggers that renegotiate this, I believe, or any risk there to the outlook from that jump in steel prices?

知道了。在本季度，鋼材價格大幅上漲。你能提醒我們你的風險是什麼嗎？因為我知道你已經改變了合同的結構方式。那麼，我認為是否存在重新談判的觸發因素，或者鋼鐵價格上漲對前景構成的任何風險？

No, you're right. We have also seen that the steel prices have now turned upwards again in certain areas. So that means that we -- whereas we were (inaudible) a quarter ago, we're expecting actually to have a positive effect on the -- from steel prices on us. For the full year, we now expect that to be more or less flat with the outlook that we have here. We have indicated that we have now a better balance of how we're set up versus our suppliers and then our customers that we should be able to manage this and not have any significant impact on profitability from this development.

不，你是對的。我們也看到，現在部分地區的鋼材價格又出現了上漲。因此，這意味著我們 - 雖然我們在一個季度前（聽不清），但我們實際上期望鋼鐵價格對我們產生積極影響。對於全年，我們現在預計這將或多或少與我們目前的前景持平。我們已經表示，我們現在已經更好地平衡了我們的設置方式與我們的供應商，然後是我們的客戶，我們應該能夠管理這一點，並且不會對這一發展的盈利能力產生任何重大影響。

Okay. Any color on the percent of contracts that have sort of clauses that trigger renegotiation? I thought in the past, you said something like 90% and maybe I'm misinterpreting that.

好的。具有觸發重新談判條款的合同百分比有任何顏色嗎？我想過去，你說了大約 90%，也許我誤解了。

No, we said that we had to close more than 90% of the negotiations related to raw materials. And that we are now roughly half of our business on the sales side -- on the customer side now has an indexation type of setup that would adjust for raw material fluctuations. And steel has a larger part than other commodities.

不，我們說我們必須關閉90%以上與原材料有關的談判。而且我們現在大約有一半的業務是在銷售方面——在客戶方面，現在有一種指數化類型的設置，可以根據原材料的波動進行調整。鋼鐵比其他商品所佔的比例更大。

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.

我們現在要繼續我們的下一個問題。問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

Just a fairly specific question here on a piece of your operating income bridge on Slide #10. It seems like currency was a fairly large headwind. It seems like a meaningful portion of -- as a percentage of last year operating income, but obviously, a much smaller impact on the revenue side, which is only a few percent. So can you just go over what's happening there on the FX side? Because it seems like excluding that, I think your margins would have been somewhat meaningfully better.

關於幻燈片 #10 上的營業收入橋樑，這裡只是一個相當具體的問題。貨幣似乎是一個相當大的逆風。這似乎是去年營業收入的一個有意義的部分，但顯然，對收入方面的影響要小得多，只有幾個百分點。那麼，您能否回顧一下外匯方面的情況？因為它似乎排除了這一點，我認為你的利潤率會有所提高。

Yes. So we're showing here year-over-year effect of negative $25 million. We're close to $20 million of that, it's from transactional currency effects and the translational and then the [reevaluation] parts are smaller, also both (inaudible) about $2 million each. And so the negative impact is from the appreciation of the peso against the U.S. dollars. That's roughly 2/3 of the negative transactional effects, but we also have negative effects on a year-over-year basis still from the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen and also U.S. dollar, Korean won. They have improved sequentially, but they have still on a year-over-year view here, there was a negative impact for us.

是的。所以我們在這裡展示了負 2500 萬美元的同比影響。我們接近其中的 2000 萬美元，它來自交易貨幣效應和平移，然後 [重新評估] 部分較小，兩者（聽不清）各約 200 萬美元。因此，負面影響來自比索兌美元的升值。這大約是負面交易影響的 2/3，但我們也有來自美元、日元以及美元、韓元的同比負面影響。他們已經連續改善，但他們仍然在這裡保持同比觀點，這對我們產生了負面影響。

Okay. And any thoughts on the -- in your outlook, is that a meaningful contributor in the full year?

好的。關於 - 在您看來，這是全年有意義的貢獻者的任何想法嗎？

No, we (inaudible). We do indicate here that on the revenue side, we still see the negative 1% and then how all the currency payers should pay out over the (inaudible). I mean we, of course, do expect the currency rates stay where they are that in the second half of the year, we should have a pretty favorable effect from the Asian currencies against the dollar. But then we have to see also then how the peso develop here and others.

不，我們（聽不清）。我們確實在這裡指出，在收入方面，我們仍然看到負 1%，然後所有貨幣支付者應該如何支付（聽不清）。我的意思是，我們當然希望貨幣匯率在今年下半年保持不變，亞洲貨幣兌美元匯率應該會產生相當有利的影響。但是我們還必須看看比索在這里和其他地方如何發展。

Okay. And then I was hoping to get a little bit more color from you on the characterization of operating conditions in Europe. I think you've qualified them as still challenging. Obviously, latest IHS suggests that at least in absolute volume terms, things sort of like (inaudible) that's meaningfully better than maybe expected just sort of like a few months ago at the start of the quarter. So maybe quite a bit more volume than expected. Can you just maybe just describe -- I understand the inflation piece. Just curious about what you're seeing in terms of the choppiness of schedules and the sequential improvement in volume.

好的。然後我希望從你們那裡得到更多關於歐洲運營條件特徵的信息。我認為你認為他們仍然具有挑戰性。顯然，最新的 IHS 表明，至少就絕對數量而言，事情有點像（聽不清），這比幾個月前本季度初的預期要好得多。所以可能比預期的要多得多。你能不能描述一下——我理解通貨膨脹的部分。只是想知道您在日程的起伏不定和數量的連續改善方面看到了什麼。

Yes, as we said here, I mean, (inaudible) I expect 300,000 vehicles more increase here. We are maybe under more cautious side there. And the reason for that is we continue to see some volatility here. It has improved, but it's far from over and behind us here. So that is still a factor. And of course, that in combination with the inflationary environment and challenges also on the labor side here, it is (inaudible) operate here, but we are moving in the right direction. But I would say the overall environment has some way to go before we are out on the other side.

是的，正如我們在這裡所說的，我的意思是，（聽不清）我預計這裡會增加 300,000 輛汽車。我們可能在那裡更加謹慎。原因是我們繼續在這裡看到一些波動。它有所改善，但它遠未結束和落在我們這裡。所以這仍然是一個因素。當然，結合通貨膨脹環境和勞動力方面的挑戰，它在這裡（聽不清）運作，但我們正朝著正確的方向前進。但我想說，在我們走到另一邊之前，整體環境還有一段路要走。

And the questions come from the line of Rod Lache from Wolfe Research.

問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

Firstly, the quarter itself benefited from stronger-than-expected production and obviously stronger-than-expected revenue. Can you talk about whether that production part itself actually converted at its historical rate? I'm not talking about the new business side. And if it did, what were the negative variances versus what you expected at the start of the year? Is it largely currency? Or are there any other developments that you would count as negatives?

首先，該季度本身受益於強於預期的生產和明顯強於預期的收入。您能否談談該生產部件本身是否真的以其歷史速度進行了轉換？我不是在談論新的業務方面。如果是這樣，與您年初的預期相比，負方差是多少？它主要是貨幣嗎？或者還有其他任何您認為是負面的發展嗎？

No, I mean, as we indicate, it's not at the level that we would want it to be, the leverage ratio. And it's -- predominantly, it's still the call of volatility and the impact that has on our ability to operate efficiently in our plants where we are -- have issues to pull through at the historical leverage rates that we could -- we will expect. But then on top of that, as you already mentioned, there is a significant contribution here from new launches, market share gains. And of course, that does not have the same margin impact or leverage rate as just the floating with LVP. And that also then is a contributing factor to the somewhat lower leverage in the quarter.

不，我的意思是，正如我們所指出的，它沒有達到我們希望的水平，即槓桿率。而且它 - 主要是，它仍然是波動的呼籲以及對我們在我們所在工廠有效運營的能力的影響 - 我們可以預期的歷史槓桿率存在問題。但最重要的是，正如你已經提到的，新產品的發布和市場份額的增加對這裡做出了重大貢獻。當然，這與 LVP 浮動不具有相同的保證金影響或槓桿率。這也是導致本季度槓桿率略低的一個因素。

Okay. But relative to your expectations, you're suggesting that it's -- it was a bit more volatile, it sounds like. Can you give us...

好的。但相對於你的期望，你暗示它 - 它聽起來有點不穩定。你能不能給我們...

No, I wouldn't say it is more volatile than we had expected. I mean we had indicated around 5%. That's where we come in. I think the top line is also very much or very close to our expectations. So at least for us, there are no big surprises in the quarter.

不，我不會說它比我們預期的更不穩定。我的意思是我們已經指出了大約 5%。這就是我們進來的地方。我認為頂線也非常或非常接近我們的預期。所以至少對我們來說，本季度沒有大的驚喜。

Okay. Okay. Can you just give us a little bit more insight into the drivers of this margin improvement from the low 5s to the low double digits, which would be implied by your full year guidance. It seemed that you would get there by late this year. How much of that is the internal savings that you anticipate? How much do you need to recover of costs that you've been absorbing?

好的。好的。您能否讓我們更深入地了解這種利潤率從低 5 位提高到低兩位數的驅動因素，這將在您的全年指導中暗示。看來你會在今年晚些時候到達那裡。您預計其中有多少內部節省？您需要多少錢才能收回您一直在承擔的成本？

The factors are, I mean we still expect top line growth also from sequentially in the quarter. So that will be a contributing factor. Then of course, the price adjustments that we (inaudible) to be able to negotiate and then come through with here starting in the second quarter. And then it's -- the third one is the stabilization component, which I already mentioned. It's difficult to now give a split of those 3, but those are the main factors here that we expect to contribute to the margin improvement sequentially.

這些因素是，我的意思是我們仍然預計本季度的營收也會環比增長。所以這將是一個促成因素。當然，我們（聽不清）能夠進行價格調整，然後從第二季度開始在這里通過。然後是——第三個是穩定組件，我已經提到過。現在很難將這 3 個分開，但這些是我們預計將有助於連續提高利潤率的主要因素。

Have you defined the automations and digitization savings for this year and what your objectives are? It sounded like those are bigger than what you had originally planned 2 or 3 years ago.

您是否定義了今年的自動化和數字化節省以及您的目標是什麼？聽起來這些比你 2 或 3 年前最初計劃的要大。

We haven't given a specific number for that, not on a yearly basis here. But of course, that is a part of our overall journey towards the midterm target. But I think -- for this year, it is really all about the work that we are doing now to negotiate price adjustments for the inflationary components and then continue with obviously cost control and improvement work here to support the leverage that we have discussed here before. And I mean, as we have guided for this year, we are then indicating 2 percentage point improvement basically around 2 percentage points improvement year-over-year. And we're starting now the Q1 with a 2 percentage points improvement Q1 versus Q1.

我們沒有給出具體數字，這裡不是每年一次。但當然，這是我們實現中期目標的整個過程的一部分。但我認為 - 今年，我們現在所做的全部工作都是針對通脹因素協商價格調整，然後繼續進行明顯的成本控制和改進工作，以支持我們之前在這裡討論過的槓桿作用.我的意思是，正如我們今年所指導的那樣，我們隨後表示 2 個百分點的改進基本上是同比提高 2 個百分點左右。我們現在開始第一季度，第一季度與第一季度相比提高了 2 個百分點。

So that sets us off to a good start for the full year, in line with our plans and expectations. And as we have also said here, we expect then a sequential improvement quarter-by-quarter similar to the way we saw it in 2022. And that, of course, that comes to that 2023 is very much the same as 2022. In terms of inflationary pressure, hitting us first, then we're going through the price negotiations with our customer, and they are trickling in gradually here throughout the year, in combination with what is also a normal seasonality is that we have the productivity coming through throughout the year, while the price downs, et cetera, is happening in the beginning of the year. So instead of price downs here, we're talking about the inflationary pressure. So -- but the seasonality is the same.

因此，這讓我們按照我們的計劃和預期，為全年開了個好頭。正如我們在這裡也說過的那樣，我們預計屆時將出現與 2022 年類似的逐季改善。當然，到 2023 年與 2022 年非常相似。通貨膨脹壓力，首先打擊我們，然後我們正在與我們的客戶進行價格談判，他們全年都在逐漸流入這裡，再加上正常的季節性因素，我們的生產力貫穿始終這一年，雖然價格下跌等發生在年初。因此，我們在這裡談論的不是價格下跌，而是通脹壓力。所以——但季節性是一樣的。

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Philipp Koenig from Goldman Sachs.

我們現在要繼續我們的下一個問題。問題來自高盛的 Philipp Koenig。

My first question is just on the SG&A, which stepped up quite meaningfully in absolute terms compared to sort of the previous quarters. I know that your top line and there is inflation in the system, but where there may be some agreements that you had, including onetime payments that sort of weighed on the SG&A in the first quarter? Or do you expect that to sort of remain above 5% of sales in the coming quarters?

我的第一個問題是關於 SG&A，與前幾個季度相比，它在絕對值上的增長非常有意義。我知道你的頂線和系統中存在通貨膨脹，但你可能有一些協議，包括一次性付款，這在第一季度對 SG&A 造成了壓力？還是您預計未來幾個季度銷售額的佔比會保持在 5% 以上？

And then my second question is just on Mikael on the point that you just touched on earlier is that you mentioned sort of 2% ahead of last year is what you need to get to the guidance that you set up for the year. If we sort of now think about the second quarter, you mentioned better leverage, obviously, higher volumes and better recoveries. Is it fair to say that maybe in the second quarter, we could see maybe an even better step up compared to the first quarter given that you should have quite a few tailwinds. Any color there is much appreciated?

然後我的第二個問題是關於 Mikael 的，你剛才提到的一點是你提到比去年提前 2% 是你需要達到你為今年設定的指導。如果我們現在考慮一下第二季度，您顯然提到了更好的槓桿作用、更高的交易量和更好的複蘇。可以公平地說，也許在第二季度，與第一季度相比，我們可能會看到更好的進步，因為你應該有很多順風。有什麼顏色很受歡迎？

Thank you for questions. Maybe I'll start there on Q2 and Fredrik take the SG&A question there. I mean, as you know, we're not guiding by quarters here, but I think what we are saying here is that you should expect a similar pattern as last year. And we did 2 percentage points improvement and around 2 percentage point improvement in the first quarter, which also translates throughout the year to get to the around 8.5% to 9%. (inaudible) said here that in terms of, let's call it (inaudible) here, it's more geared towards the second half. Also, I would say in line with how last year developed. So I think that is as much commentary I can give regarding the sequential development on the quarters to come here in 2023.

謝謝你的問題。也許我會從第二季度開始，Fredrik 在那裡回答 SG&A 問題。我的意思是，正如你所知，我們在這裡不是以季度為指導，但我認為我們在這裡所說的是你應該期待與去年類似的模式。我們在第一季度提高了 2 個百分點和大約 2 個百分點，這也轉化為全年達到 8.5% 到 9% 左右。 （聽不清）在這裡說，就我們在這裡稱之為（聽不清）而言，它更適合下半場。另外，我會說與去年的發展情況一致。因此，我認為這就是我可以就 2023 年來到這裡的季度的順序發展發表的評論。

And on the SG&A question, I mean, you see from our headcount development that our indirect headcount is up around 4.5%. And that's also the case on the SG&A side. And that is to support a business here that has grown by 21% year-over-year. That's one factor. Then of course, we have the inflation component also moving into our SG&A costs, both on the labor side, but also on the indirect spend. And then we had, in this quarter, maybe a somewhat higher project-related costs. But for the future, our ambition is to also get the right leverage also on our support cost structure, meaning that we aim to keep the SG&A as lean as possible and then with the top line growth, see a more favorable ratio going forward.

關於 SG&A 問題，我的意思是，從我們的員工人數發展情況來看，我們的間接員工人數增加了 4.5% 左右。 SG&A 方面也是如此。那就是支持這裡的業務同比增長 21%。這是一個因素。當然，我們的通貨膨脹因素也進入了我們的 SG&A 成本，既有勞動力方面的，也有間接支出方面的。然後，在本季度，我們的項目相關成本可能有所增加。但對於未來，我們的目標是在我們的支持成本結構上也獲得正確的槓桿作用，這意味著我們的目標是盡可能保持 SG&A 的精簡，然後隨著收入的增長，看到一個更有利的比率。

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken.

我們現在要繼續我們的下一個問題。問題來自 Handelsbanken 的 Hampus Engellau。

It would be interesting if you guys could maybe give us a flavor on how the production at your customer has been during the quarter -- I mean, your call offs during the quarter, have they been lumpy or more stable? And how should we think about that going forward? And then on your outlook, Mikael, 50% organic growth outlook, is that based on a more conservative number for Europe and the plus 7% that IHS currently have? Those are my questions.

如果你們能給我們介紹一下您的客戶在本季度的生產情況，那將會很有趣——我的意思是，你們在本季度的停工，它們是起伏不定還是更穩定？我們應該如何考慮未來的發展？然後關於你的前景，Mikael，50% 的有機增長前景，這是基於歐洲更保守的數字和 IHS 目前擁有的 7% 以上嗎？這些是我的問題。

Thank you, Hampus. No, I meant, actually, I would say that the volatility has improved, but it's not normalized yet. So there is still some way to go. It varies quite a lot between the different customers here, which will also (inaudible) in the last couple of quarters here, that is not one size fits all here in terms of volatility. And it's very much connected to (inaudible) supply and also what type of meaning supplier in their turn. And also what kind of versions of semiconductors they are using. And as we have seen here, a year later and more new technology you have in your semiconductors, you have some better position compared to (inaudible) the older and more traditional OEM (inaudible). And there is a lot of activities going on with the ones that are still on the old technology platforms, you could say on semiconductors, too, to redesign and resource there.

謝謝你，漢普斯。不，我的意思是，實際上，我會說波動性有所改善，但還沒有正常化。所以還有一段路要走。這裡的不同客戶之間差異很大，在過去的幾個季度中也將（聽不清）在這裡，就波動性而言，這並不是一個適合所有人的尺寸。它與（聽不清）供應密切相關，也與供應商的含義類型密切相關。還有他們使用的是什麼版本的半導體。正如我們在這裡看到的那樣，一年後，您在半導體中擁有更多新技術，與（聽不清）更老的和更傳統的 OEM（聽不清）相比，您處於更好的位置。還有很多活動仍在舊技術平台上進行，你也可以說在半導體上，在那裡重新設計和資源。

So expectation is that it should move in the right direction. And that's also in that space where the semiconductor manufacturers are putting in new capacity. So more work to be done there, but moving in the right direction. I think the expectations is that we should see less of volatility as we move forward. But as we know there's a lot of other moving parts going on at the same time that can have some disturbances, and we have seen that also connected to logistic issues, for example, where (inaudible) shipping lanes and freight schedules are not as reliable as it was reported in pandemic here. So there are also others things going on top of the semiconductor issue. So I guess that's the response on the first question.

所以期望它應該朝著正確的方向前進。這也是半導體製造商投入新產能的領域。所以還有更多的工作要做，但要朝著正確的方向前進。我認為預期是我們在前進的過程中應該看到更少的波動。但正如我們所知，同時有許多其他活動部件在運行，可能會產生一些干擾，而且我們已經看到這也與物流問題有關，例如，（聽不清）航道和貨運時間表不那麼可靠正如這裡的大流行病所報導的那樣。因此，除了半導體問題之外，還有其他事情正在發生。所以我想這就是對第一個問題的回答。

And regarding the outlook and Europe's (inaudible) -- and I guess the short answer is yes to your question. Of course, the cautiousness around Europe that I expressed before is a part of our light vehicle growth of around 3%. That is the basis for our organic (inaudible) there. So yes, to your second question.

關於前景和歐洲的（聽不清）——我想對你的問題的簡短回答是肯定的。當然，我之前表達的對歐洲的謹慎是我們輕型車增長 3% 左右的一部分。這是我們在那裡有機（聽不清）的基礎。所以是的，你的第二個問題。

Super. And maybe on that, is it from what you see in your customer base? Or is it just general thinking surrounding the European economy and all of that, that makes you more cautious?

極好的。也許就此而言，是從您在客戶群中看到的嗎？還是只是圍繞歐洲經濟的一般想法以及所有這些讓你更加謹慎？

I think it's a combination of the two. But of course, it's very much connected to the customer interaction, I would say.

我認為這是兩者的結合。但當然，我會說，這與客戶互動密切相關。

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho.

我們現在要繼續我們的下一個問題。問題來自 Mizuho 的 Vijay Rakesh。

Just a quick question. On the -- when you look at the global LVP, 3.7% this year, what slowdown are you assuming for the U.S. like second half on first half? And any thoughts on Europe if U.S. slows down? I'm just wondering what the assumptions are.

只是一個簡單的問題。關於 - 當你看一下全球 LVP，今年 3.7%，你假設美國下半年和上半年一樣放緩多少？如果美國放緩，對歐洲有什麼想法？我只是想知道這些假設是什麼。

No, I think our -- I mean distribution of our number is not very much different from what you see from S&P Global. I would say, if you see the different weights from the region tariff it ties into to our U.S. well with maybe the exception that we are a little bit lower on Europe, as we said, but that has affected around 3% instead of 3.5%. So it's already in there. In terms of regional mix, it doesn't differ too much.

不，我認為我們的 - 我的意思是我們的數字分佈與您從標準普爾全球看到的沒有太大不同。我想說，如果你看到區域關稅的不同權重，它與我們美國的關係很好，除了我們對歐洲的影響略低，正如我們所說，但這影響了大約 3% 而不是 3.5% .所以它已經在那裡了。就區域組合而言，它並沒有太大差異。

Yes. And then on China, obviously, it looks like they are assuming a pretty strong growth. Are you assuming any subsidies from China, either on the EV side that drives that LVP in China through the back half as well?

是的。然後在中國，很明顯，他們似乎假設增長非常強勁。您是否假設來自中國的任何補貼，無論是在電動汽車方面，還是通過後半部分推動中國的 LVP？

No, it's nothing we see (inaudible) here, and I have on radar screen here. I think, overall, we see a high level of activity in the Chinese market here. And as you know, the Shanghai Auto Show is currently ongoing here this week. So a very dynamic market, and we are, I would say, positive to the Chinese LVP...

不，我們在這裡沒有看到（聽不清），我在雷達屏幕上看到了。我認為，總的來說，我們看到中國市場的活躍度很高。如您所知，本週上海車展正在這裡舉行。這是一個充滿活力的市場，我想說，我們對中國 LVP 持積極態度……

Last question. I know you mentioned 90% of the products have been negotiated with the cost inflation side. Broadly, is there a way to look at what the pricing tailwind would be from the cost pricing negotiations as you run through '23 because some of these pricing have continued to go up. But just wondering broadly, what's the ballpark pricing tailwind?

最後一個問題。我知道你提到 90% 的產品已經與成本膨脹方面進行了談判。從廣義上講，有沒有一種方法可以查看 23 年期間成本定價談判的定價順風，因為其中一些定價繼續上漲。但只是廣泛地想知道，大概的定價順風是什麼？

Well, it's more than 90%. We haven't said the exact number, but it's more than 90%. I think the indication we can give is that in the 15% organic growth, we still assume around 3% global LVP. We've said around 3% in content per vehicle, and then the remaining to come from pricing and from market share gain and that pricing would be the larger of the 2 components. And I think that's as much as we can say on the pricing contribution.

嗯，超過90%。我們沒有說具體數字，但超過 90%。我認為我們可以給出的跡像是，在 15% 的有機增長中，我們仍然假設全球 LVP 約為 3%。我們已經說過每輛車大約 3% 的內容，然後剩下的來自定價和市場份額的增加，而定價將是這兩個組成部分中較大的一個。我認為這就是我們對定價貢獻所能說的。

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Erik Golrang from SEB.

我們現在要繼續我們的下一個問題。問題來自 SEB 的 Erik Golrang。

2 questions. The first 1 is a follow-up on the pricing comment. If it's around 5% for the year, how much was pricing up in the first quarter here since you say that there's more to come. And then the second question on the expectations of LVP stability and visibility improving. I guess that's completely out in your hands, right? So if that doesn't happen, how much lower would the full year margin be?

2 個問題。第一個是對定價評論的跟進。如果今年大約是 5%，那麼第一季度的定價是多少，因為你說還有更多。然後是關於 LVP 穩定性和能見度提高的預期的第二個問題。我想這完全在你手中，對吧？那麼，如果不發生這種情況，全年利潤率會低多少？

Let me start with the second question, and Fredrik can take the first 1 there. I mean in our guidance, of course, we are aware of the market situation here, and we are working hard to manage it. So of course, volatility is here, even though we think it's going to improve. Of course, we need to improve our way to work in such an environment. And I think last year, you saw that we had a significant premium freight. We don't have that this year. And of course, the quarter that is that we have been improving. And I would say, added on support in our plans to create more stability in our own production to offset that constraint from our customers here. So we find a way to operate in such an environment.

讓我從第二個問題開始，Fredrik 可以拿第一個。我的意思是在我們的指導中，當然，我們知道這裡的市場情況，我們正在努力管理它。所以當然，波動性就在這裡，儘管我們認為它會有所改善。當然，我們需要改進我們在這樣的環境中工作的方式。我想去年，你看到我們有大量的溢價運費。我們今年沒有。當然，我們一直在改進的那個季度。我會說，在我們的計劃中增加支持，以在我們自己的生產中創造更多的穩定性，以抵消我們這裡客戶的限制。所以我們想辦法在這樣的環境下運作。

And as we move to (inaudible) we continue to improve that work. It's not as, Fredrik alluded to before, optimal at this point in time. But the combination of improving and stabilizing what we see from our customers and our own ability should support what we are talking about here in terms of full year guidance. I don't see any reason why we shouldn't be able to contain that volatility that we're talking about here within our framework here. So I feel comfortable with the current situation.

隨著我們轉向（聽不清），我們將繼續改進這項工作。 Fredrik 之前提到，這並不是此時的最佳選擇。但改進和穩定我們從客戶那裡看到的東西以及我們自己的能力的結合應該支持我們在這裡談論的全年指導。我看不出有什麼理由不能在我們的框架內包含我們在這裡討論的波動性。所以我對現在的情況很滿意。

Yes. And then on the pricing side, I mean, I think we need to refer back to what we said after the fourth quarter earnings for this year. And the way that these negotiations go is that we need to have the cost increases in our cost structure first before we can then get the compensation from the customer. And that has now happened here in the first quarter. As we've indicated, the 2 largest components of inflation that we are facing is -- so the impact of the nonraw material-related inflation in our supply base and then the labor cost inflation in our own operations. And those have materialized in the first quarter already with not so much compensation that came in from the customer side. So pricing has remained relatively flat sequentially.

是的。然後在定價方面，我的意思是，我認為我們需要回顧一下我們在今年第四季度收益後所說的話。這些談判的方式是，我們需要先在成本結構中增加成本，然後才能從客戶那裡獲得補償。現在第一季度就發生了這種情況。正如我們所指出的，我們面臨的兩個最大的通貨膨脹組成部分是——我們供應基礎中與非原材料相關的通貨膨脹的影響，然後是我們自己運營中的勞動力成本通貨膨脹。這些已經在第一季度實現，而客戶方面的補償並不多。因此，定價環比保持相對平穩。

So the vast majority of that 5% is not yet in the books.

所以這 5% 中的絕大部分還沒有記在賬面上。

Correct.

正確的。

Okay. And then a final question on these -- the drag from new volumes or new contracts ramping and there being weaker leverage on that initially. I mean that's something we've seen that a couple of times historically. And how I guess you always need new volumes and new contracts to grow over time. So why is that -- is there anything you could put a number or frame how much there is the sort of share of new contracts or new volumes this quarter compared to an average or something like that to put it in perspective?

好的。然後是關於這些的最後一個問題 - 新數量或新合同的拖累以及最初的槓桿作用較弱。我的意思是，這是我們在歷史上見過幾次的事情。我猜你總是需要新的數量和新的合同來隨著時間的推移而增長。那麼，為什麼會這樣——你有沒有什麼可以給出一個數字或框架，與平均水平或類似的東西相比，本季度新合同或新數量的份額有多少？

Well, I don't think I need to explain why they have initially lower profitability. But the contribution from these launches have been significantly larger in this first quarter than what you would typically see. In LVP, it's up 6%. Our volumes are up significantly more than that. And that's -- it was a larger part of the volume growth that came from these launches than in a more normalized quarter.

好吧，我認為我不需要解釋為什麼他們最初的盈利能力較低。但是這些發佈在第一季度的貢獻比你通常看到的要大得多。在 LVP 中，它上漲了 6%。我們的銷量遠不止於此。那就是——與更正常化的季度相比，這些發布帶來的銷量增長佔了更大的一部分。

Okay. So -- but that means that the higher outperformance the lower the leverage. Is that always how one should think about it?

好的。所以 - 但這意味著更高的表現越低杠桿。人們總是應該這樣想嗎？

Initially, yes.

最初，是的。

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Michael Jacks from Bank of America.

我們現在要繼續我們的下一個問題。問題來自美國銀行的 Michael Jacks。

Maybe the first one, following on from Fredrik's comments on the factors that you consider when deciding on the pace of share buybacks. Would it be fair then to assume that there should be somewhat of a linear relationship between your margin and cash evolution through the year and the execution on the program?

也許是第一個，繼 Fredrik 關於您在決定股票回購速度時考慮的因素的評論之後。那麼假設你的利潤和現金在一年中的變化與項目的執行之間應該存在某種線性關係是否公平？

Yes. I don't want to talk to you now about how it develops by quarter. But I think you can look at our normal seasonality and the margin progression that -- we're also indicating here for the year. And I think that's -- those 2 together gives you maybe also an indication about how the cash flow generation will look per quarter. Then of course, we will be -- as I said, it's not only, say, profitability, but then also means the leverage ratio, which is clearly connected to that, but also the cash flow and the visibility we have in the near term on the market development and our own business development. So yes, somewhat, is maybe my answer to your question.

是的。我現在不想和你談論它是如何按季度發展的。但我認為你可以看看我們的正常季節性和利潤率進展——我們也在這裡指出了這一年。而且我認為那是 - 這兩個一起可以讓你了解每個季度的現金流量生成情況。然後，當然，正如我所說，這不僅是盈利能力，而且還意味著槓桿率，這顯然與此相關，還有現金流和我們在短期內的可見性關於市場開發和我們自己的業務發展。所以是的，在某種程度上，這可能是我對你問題的回答。

Right. Understood. And then I guess, we're all now very well used to watching out for downside risks to likely production, but the aggregate unit sales ambitions of the OEMs for this year clearly require perhaps an even higher LVP growth than what S&P is expecting. Just curious if this delta is perhaps visible in the production schedules that your customers have provided to you for the coming quarters.

正確的。明白了。然後我猜，我們現在都非常習慣於注意可能生產的下行風險，但今年 OEM 的總單位銷售目標顯然需要比標準普爾預期更高的 LVP 增長。只是好奇這個增量是否可能在您的客戶為您提供的未來幾個季度的生產計劃中可見。

I mean if I look at what we see for the first quarter that the production volatility is still around us. It's in -- the vast majority of the case is that deviation is on the downside. So meaning that the [EDI] call-offs we get are then revised downwards for the vast majority of our customers. So maybe that's an indication of where that delta (inaudible) going forward.

我的意思是，如果我看一下第一季度的情況，就會發現生產波動仍在我們身邊。它在 - 絕大多數情況下偏差是不利的。這意味著我們得到的 [EDI] 取消會針對我們的絕大多數客戶向下修改。所以也許這表明了三角洲（聽不清）的發展方向。

So they start the quarter then really high and then cut back as the quarter progresses, is that the trend?

所以他們在本季度開始時非常高，然後隨著季度的進展而削減，這是趨勢嗎？

Yes, yes. And very few deviate on the upside, yes.

是的是的。很少有人偏離上行，是的。

But at the same time, it's not the new phenomenon. So it's normal outlook.

但與此同時，這並不是新現象。所以這是正常的看法。

We are now going to proceed with our next question. And the questions come from the line of Mattias Holmberg from DNB.

我們現在要繼續我們的下一個問題。問題來自DNB 的Mattias Holmberg。

A bit of a philosophical one, perhaps. And if we look at your customers, the OEMs, we see some of them basically cutting prices as if it was going out of fashion. So it would be interesting to hear if you can share your view on how lower final selling prices for light vehicles works its way through the value chain. And perhaps more importantly, explain the logic on how you sort of or meant to raise prices when your customers are generally cutting prices at this point?

也許有點哲學意義。如果我們看看你的客戶，原始設備製造商，我們看到他們中的一些人基本上在降價，就好像它已經過時了一樣。因此，如果您能分享您對輕型車輛的較低最終售價如何在價值鏈中發揮作用的看法，那將是一件很有趣的事情。也許更重要的是，當您的客戶此時普遍降價時，請解釋一下您如何或打算提高價格的邏輯？

Yes, this is a philosophical question here. But first of all, I think what we're talking about here with our customer is not anything else than the inflationary components of doing business in this industry here. So we're coming with request here to offset external factors. I think in the same fashion that we are being hit with the inflationary costs, then going to the customer, we have the sequential here before where we have, let's say, the negative impact first, and then we get compensation when we (inaudible) evidence there in our negotiations.

是的，這是一個哲學問題。但首先，我認為我們在這裡與客戶談論的只是在這個行業開展業務的通貨膨脹因素。所以我們來這裡是為了抵消外部因素。我認為以同樣的方式，我們受到通貨膨脹成本的打擊，然後去找客戶，我們在這裡有順序，比方說，首先是負面影響，然後當我們（聽不清）時我們得到補償我們談判中的證據。

I think if you look at our forecast, I think many of them rather have actually increased prices on the core side than what you're referring to there. But I think in a broader extent, I think there is no doubt about that the industry as such are aware of what needs to be done here to compensate the value chain to make sure that we have a sustainable value chain in the industry. So in my discussions with our customers, that's not the factor that we are considering here. We are looking at the facts around inflationary components hitting the value chain here, and that's what we're negotiating around.

我想如果你看一下我們的預測，我認為他們中的許多人實際上在核心方面提高了價格，而不是你所指的那裡。但我認為，在更廣泛的範圍內，我認為毫無疑問，整個行業都知道需要在這裡做什麼來補償價值鏈，以確保我們在行業中擁有可持續的價值鏈。所以在我與客戶的討論中，這不是我們在這裡考慮的因素。我們正在研究影響這裡價值鏈的通脹因素的事實，這就是我們正在談判的內容。

We Are Now going to take our next question. And the questions come from the line of Dan Levy from Barclays.

我們現在開始下一個問題。問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Dan Levy。

First, I think this was slightly alluded to, but maybe you could just talk about on the cash flow specifically, the working capital dynamic, which was quite negative and just the swing of receivables that was $200 million decline. Could you just explain that movement? What we should expect going forward on the working capital front?

首先，我認為這有點暗示，但也許你可以具體談談現金流，營運資本動態，這是非常負面的，只是應收賬款的波動減少了 2 億美元。你能解釋一下那個動作嗎？在營運資金方面我們應該期待什麼？

Yes. I mean it was a bit of an unusual say, first quarter in the sense that it was a very high month of month ago, starting from January then into December -- to March, sorry. And that created a fairly large receivable balance at the end of the quarter, whereas the other 2 working capital components, inventory and payables or they follow also a normal pattern, but the very significant sales increase towards the end of the quarter drove up the receivables. But this should normalize then as also the -- we do not expect the same type of growth profile for the next quarter that we have now in within the first quarter. And then that working capital buildup should revert somewhat.

是的。我的意思是，第一季度的說法有點不尋常，因為它是一個月前的一個非常高的月份，從 1 月開始到 12 月——到 3 月，抱歉。這在本季度末創造了相當大的應收賬款餘額，而其他 2 個營運資金組成部分，庫存和應付賬款，或者它們也遵循正常模式，但本季度末非常顯著的銷售增長推動了應收賬款.但這應該會正常化——我們預計下一季度不會出現與第一季度相同的增長情況。然後，營運資金的積累應該會有所恢復。

Okay. Great. Okay. So the working capital should reverse, great. And then just want to go to the question on inflation. And specifically, your release talked about inflation pressures in Europe, which didn't flag Europe specifically in the past. Maybe you could just walk through the inflation dynamics by region. And specific to labor, how labor is evolving? And what has been the tone and tenor of conversations with automakers to compensate on labor?

好的。偉大的。好的。所以營運資金應該逆轉，很好。然後只想談談通貨膨脹的問題。具體來說，你的新聞稿談到了歐洲的通脹壓力，過去並沒有特別提到歐洲。也許你可以按地區瀏覽通貨膨脹動態。具體到勞動力，勞動力是如何演變的？與汽車製造商就勞動力補償進行對話的基調和基調是什麼？

Yes. I think if I start with the negotiations there, I think it's just what we have said before here that when -- I mean, it's -- I would say it's never easy to discuss and negotiate the price increases with our customers. We were successful in those discussions during 2022 related to raw materials. And we are making progress also here in the non-raw material area. Of course, it becomes a little bit more complicated in this space because in difference to the raw material side, you don't have the same type of reference points as you have on the raw material side, meaning that each plant and each site and each country are unique. So you need to go through much more of an even more detailed discussion with (inaudible) you get the side, it's very much the same as on the raw material side. So we are making progress in that area.

是的。我認為，如果我從那裡的談判開始，我認為這就是我們之前在這裡所說的——我的意思是——我會說與我們的客戶討論和談判價格上漲絕非易事。我們在 2022 年與原材料相關的討論中取得了成功。我們在非原材料領域也取得了進展。當然，在這個空間中它變得有點複雜，因為與原材料方面不同，您沒有與原材料方面相同類型的參考點，這意味著每個工廠和每個地點和每個國家都是獨一無二的。因此，您需要與（聽不清）進行更多更詳細的討論，這與原材料方面非常相似。因此，我們正在該領域取得進展。

Yes. I mean on the -- how the inflation is hitting up in general, it's no different from all the data you can get publicly. So this -- yes, not to say other than that. I mean we -- on the labor cost side, there have been one country where minimum wages have increased significantly or been very significant (inaudible) Mexico that has a larger impact, but then also Turkey, where we have a large operation, is pretty significantly impacted by inflation, of course. But in general, you can look at where these indices are and they are publicly available, and we typically follow them also for the countries that we operate in.

是的。我的意思是——通貨膨脹總體上是如何上升的，這與你可以公開獲得的所有數據沒有什麼不同。所以這個-- 是的，除此之外別無他法。我的意思是我們 - 在勞動力成本方面，有一個國家的最低工資顯著增加或非常顯著（聽不清）墨西哥的影響更大，但土耳其也有很大的影響，我們有很大的業務當然，受通貨膨脹的影響很大。但總的來說，你可以看看這些指數在哪裡，它們是公開的，我們通常也會在我們開展業務的國家/地區遵循它們。

Okay. And then Europe specifically, is there some unique dynamic in Europe?

好的。然後具體到歐洲，歐洲是否有一些獨特的動態？

I think in Europe, of course, the war in Ukraine has impacted to some extent here, of course, energy and also on freight as a consequence of that. So yes, I mean, each region has their own reasons so to speak and we hope to (inaudible) challenges in Europe.

我認為在歐洲，當然，烏克蘭的戰爭在一定程度上影響了這裡，當然，能源和貨運也因此受到影響。所以，是的，我的意思是，可以說每個地區都有自己的理由，我們希望（聽不清）在歐洲提出挑戰。

Yes. I mean, but on that, and of course, energy has been a much larger topic in Europe and also driving them up the price for purchase components from our supply base. So that has been significantly more of a challenge in Europe than it has been in other regions.

是的。我的意思是，但就此而言，當然，能源在歐洲一直是一個更大的話題，也促使他們提高從我們的供應基地購買零部件的價格。因此，與其他地區相比，這在歐洲面臨的挑戰要大得多。

Due to time constraint, we will now end the question-and-answer session here. And I hand back the conference the President and CEO, Mr. Mikael Bratt, for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

由於時間關係，我們現在將結束問答環節。我將會議的主席兼首席執行官 Mikael Bratt 先生交還給閉幕詞。請繼續。

Thank you, Andrea. Before we end today's call, I would like to say that we are continuing to execute on (inaudible) cost reduction activities relying on our strong company culture. Our actions are creating both short-term and long-term improvements. And additionally, we are evaluating ways to improve our footprint and to reduce our cost structure. We believe these actions will enable us to build an even stronger position. Autoliv continues to focus on our vision of saving more lives, which is our most important direct contribution to sustainable society. Our second quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, July 21, 2023.

謝謝你，安德里亞。在我們結束今天的電話會議之前，我想說的是，我們將繼續依靠我們強大的公司文化來執行（聽不清）成本削減活動。我們的行動正在創造短期和長期的改善。此外，我們正在評估改善足跡和降低成本結構的方法。我們相信這些行動將使我們能夠建立更強大的地位。奧托立夫繼續專注於我們拯救更多生命的願景，這是我們對可持續發展社會最重要的直接貢獻。我們的第二季度財報電話會議定於 2023 年 7 月 21 日星期五舉行。

Thank you, everyone, for participating in today's call. We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv. Until next time, stay safe.

謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們衷心感謝您對奧托立夫的持續關注。直到下一次，保持安全。

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們，先生們，今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開線路。