Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Q2 2022 Autoliv Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today, I'm pleased to present CEO and President, Mikael Bratt. I will now hand over to VP Investor Relations, Anders Trapp. Please begin your meeting.

歡迎參加 2022 年第二季度 Autoliv Inc. 收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）今天，我很高興向大家介紹首席執行官兼總裁 Mikael Bratt。我現在將移交給投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。請開始您的會議。

Thank you, Cindy. Welcome, everyone, to our second quarter 2020 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin; and I am Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations.

謝謝你，辛迪。歡迎大家參加我們的 2020 年第二季度財報電話會議。在這次電話會議上，我們有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Mikael Bratt；和我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin；我是投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。

During today's earnings call, our CEO will provide a brief overview of our second quarter results as well as provide an update on our general business and market conditions. Following Mikael, Fredrik will provide further details and commentary around the financials. We will then remain available to respond to your questions. And as usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com.

在今天的財報電話會議上，我們的首席執行官將簡要概述我們的第二季度業績，並提供我們一般業務和市場狀況的最新信息。繼 Mikael 之後，Fredrik 將提供有關財務狀況的更多詳細信息和評論。然後，我們將繼續回复您的問題。和往常一樣，這些幻燈片可在 autoliv.com 上找到。

Turning to the next slide. We have the Safe Harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference some non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly press release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC. Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 p.m. Central European Time. (Operator Instructions)

轉到下一張幻燈片。我們有安全港聲明，它是本演示文稿的一個組成部分，包括以下問答。在演示過程中，我們將參考一些非美國公認會計原則的措施。歷史美國 GAAP 與非美國 GAAP 措施的調節在我們在 autoliv.com 上提供的季度新聞稿和將提交給 SEC 的 10-Q 中披露。最後，我應該提一下，這次電話會議打算在下午 3:00 結束。中歐時間。 （操作員說明）

I will now hand over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

我現在將移交給我們的首席執行官 Mikael Bratt。

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. I would like to start by thanking our employees for a good execution of our mitigating activities in a challenging quarter. We continued to experience tough lockdowns in China that affected the global supply chain and automotive industry, including many of our employees. Although the supply chain situation is improving currently, the automotive industry continues to battle with the semiconductor shortage, limiting the global light vehicle production.

謝謝你，安德斯。看下一張幻燈片。首先，我要感謝我們的員工在充滿挑戰的季度中出色地執行了我們的緩解活動。我們在中國繼續經歷嚴厲的封鎖，影響了全球供應鍊和汽車行業，包括我們的許多員工。儘管目前供應鏈形勢正在改善，但汽車行業繼續與半導體短缺作鬥爭，限制了全球輕型汽車的生產。

Thanks to a strong ending of the quarter, our organic sales increased by 8% year-over-year according to IHS Markit. Our organic sales outperformed global light vehicle production by more than 7 percentage points.

根據 IHS Markit 的數據，由於本季度的強勁收官，我們的有機銷售額同比增長了 8%。我們的有機銷售額比全球輕型汽車產量高出 7 個百分點以上。

Our margins developed better than expected despite raw material cost increases impacting our operating margin in the quarter by almost 6 percentage points and extensive inefficiencies from lockdowns in China. Our cost mitigation measures are on track to achieving price increases to compensate for higher costs for raw materials, labor, logistics and utilities.

儘管原材料成本增加影響了我們在本季度的營業利潤率近 6 個百分點，而且中國的封鎖導致效率普遍低下，但我們的利潤率發展好於預期。我們的成本緩解措施有望實現價格上漲，以彌補原材料、勞動力、物流和公用事業成本的上漲。

Additionally, commercial compensation for previous periods and the patent litigation settlement together amounted to around USD 50 million in the quarter. In response to the ongoing challenging market conditions and to be prepared for possible future challenging conditions, we are strengthening our cost control measures and implementing other cost-saving activities. Mainly due to volatile and timing effects adverse working capital development led to a negative cash flow in the quarter. We expect to recover most of these effects in the second half of the year. The leverage ratio is 1.7x In the quarter, we paid $0.64 per share in dividends and repurchased 0.3 million shares under our 3-year stock repurchase program.

此外，上一季度的商業賠償和專利訴訟和解合計在本季度達到約 5000 萬美元。為應對當前充滿挑戰的市場條件並為未來可能面臨的挑戰做好準備，我們正在加強我們的成本控制措施並實施其他成本節約活動。主要是由於波動性和時間性影響不利的營運資金發展導致本季度出現負現金流。我們預計這些影響將在下半年恢復。槓桿率為 1.7 倍 在本季度，我們支付了每股 0.64 美元的股息，並根據我們的 3 年股票回購計劃回購了 30 萬股。

We continue to develop mobility safety solutions and announced a cooperation with POC to investigate the opportunities with integrating airbag technology into bicycle helmet. Looking at the rest of the year, we expect increased sales outperformance versus light vehicle production.

我們繼續開發移動安全解決方案，並宣布與 POC 合作，研究將安全氣囊技術集成到自行車頭盔中的機會。展望今年餘下的時間，我們預計銷售業績將超過輕型汽車產量。

It is our plan and ambition that our product price increases coupled with strict cost control measures will gradually offset the raw materials and other inflationary cost increases. Therefore, we expect a sequential margin improvement in the second half year, supporting a trajectory towards our midterm target.

我們的計劃和雄心是，我們的產品價格上漲加上嚴格的成本控制措施將逐步抵消原材料和其他通脹成本的增加。因此，我們預計下半年利潤率將連續改善，支持朝著我們的中期目標邁進。

Looking now on the financial overview on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales of $2.1 billion was 3% higher than in Q2 2021. Adjusted operating income, excluding cost for capacity alignments, fell from USD 166 million to USD 124 million. The adjusted operating margin was 6% in the quarter, around 2 percentage points lower than last year. The lower operating margin was mainly a result of inflationary pressure, volatile LVP, currencies and effects from lockdowns in China. Operating cash flow was negative $51 million, which was $114 million lower than the same period last year mainly due to changes in working capital.

現在看下一張幻燈片的財務概覽。我們的合併淨銷售額為 21 億美元，比 2021 年第二季度增長 3%。調整後的營業收入（不包括產能調整成本）從 1.66 億美元降至 1.24 億美元。本季度調整後的營業利潤率為 6%，比去年同期下降約 2 個百分點。較低的營業利潤率主要是由於通脹壓力、波動的 LVP、貨幣和中國封鎖的影響。經營現金流為負 5100 萬美元，比去年同期減少 1.14 億美元，主要是由於營運資金的變化。

Looking now on our sales growth more in detail on the next slide. Although currency translation effects had a negative impact of 5% or USD 103 million, the second quarter consolidated net sales increased by almost USD 60 million to USD 2.1 billion. Retroactive pricing contributed with approximately USD 30 million and price volume mix contributed with USD 132 million or 7% to the growth in the quarter.

現在在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地查看我們的銷售增長。儘管貨幣換算效應產生了 5% 或 1.03 億美元的負面影響，但第二季度合併淨銷售額增加了近 6,000 萬美元，達到 21 億美元。追溯定價貢獻了約 3000 萬美元，價格組合貢獻了 1.32 億美元或 7% 的增長。

Looking to our organic sales growth per region in Q2 2022 on the next slide. Our sales in the quarter came in lower than what we expected in the beginning of the quarter. Due to that, light vehicle production in Japan, Western Europe and North America disappointed. According to IHS Markit, global light vehicle production increased by less than 1% year-over-year in the quarter. This was 2 percentage points worse than expected at the beginning of the quarter, and the mix was worse than expected.

在下一張幻燈片中展望我們在 2022 年第二季度每個地區的有機銷售增長。我們本季度的銷售額低於我們在本季度初的預期。因此，日本、西歐和北美的輕型汽車生產令人失望。根據 IHS Markit 的數據，本季度全球輕型汽車產量同比增長不到 1%。這比本季度初的預期差了 2 個百分點，而且組合差於預期。

Our second quarter sales grew organically by 8%, which was around 7 percentage points better than global light vehicle production according to IHS Markit despite the negative regional LVP mix. The organic sales growth was mainly driven by the large number of product launches in Americas and Europe as well as price increases. Based on the latest light vehicle production numbers from IHS Markit, we outperformed in Europe by 15 percentage points, in Japan by 10 percentage points and in Americas by 8 percentage points. In China, sales underperformed by 4 percentage points. The reason for the underperformance in China was mainly the mix effect from production of low-end vehicles being less affected by the lockdowns. Supported by recent launches and a positive regional mix as well as further price increases, we see sales outperforming light vehicle production substantially more for the rest of the year.

根據 IHS Markit 的數據，儘管區域 LVP 組合為負，我們第二季度的銷售額有機增長了 8%，比全球輕型汽車產量高出約 7 個百分點。有機銷售增長主要受到美洲和歐洲大量產品發布以及價格上漲的推動。根據 IHS Markit 的最新輕型汽車產量數據，我們在歐洲的表現領先 15 個百分點，在日本領先 10 個百分點，在美洲領先 8 個百分點。在中國，銷售表現落後 4 個百分點。中國表現不佳的原因主要是低端汽車生產受封鎖影響較小的混合效應。在最近的發布和積極的區域組合以及價格進一步上漲的支持下，我們認為今年剩餘時間的銷售業績將大大超過輕型汽車產量。

On the next slide, we see some key model launches from the second quarter. In the quarter, we had a high number of launches, especially in Europe and China. The models shown on this slide have an Autoliv content per vehicle from approximately USD 120 to more than USD 550. The long-term trend to higher CPV is supported by the introduction of high-content steering wheels.

在下一張幻燈片中，我們看到了第二季度推出的一些關鍵車型。在本季度，我們推出了大量產品，尤其是在歐洲和中國。這張幻燈片上顯示的車型每輛車的 Autoliv 含量從大約 120 美元到超過 550 美元不等。高 CPV 的長期趨勢得到了高含量方向盤的支持。

I will now hand it over to our CFO, Fredrik Westin, who will talk about the financials on the next few slides.

我現在將把它交給我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin，他將在接下來的幾張幻燈片中討論財務狀況。

Thank you, Mikael. This slide highlights our key figures for the second quarter of 2022 compared to the second quarter of 2021. Our net sales were $2.1 billion. This was a 3% increase compared to the same quarter last year. Gross profit declined by 15% to $326 million, while the gross margin decreased to 15.7%. The gross margin decrease was primarily driven by raw materials, currencies and the volatile and lower-than-expected light vehicle production.

謝謝你，米凱爾。這張幻燈片突出顯示了我們 2022 年第二季度與 2021 年第二季度相比的關鍵數據。我們的淨銷售額為 21 億美元。與去年同期相比，增長了 3%。毛利潤下降 15% 至 3.26 億美元，而毛利率下降至 15.7%。毛利率下降的主要原因是原材料、貨幣以及波動性和低於預期的輕型汽車產量。

In the quarter, we had virtually no additional provisions for capacity alignment activities. And the adjusted operating income decreased to $124 million from $166 million. The adjusted operating margin declined to 6%. The operating cash flow was minus $51 million and I will provide further comments later in the presentation.

在本季度，我們幾乎沒有為容量調整活動提供額外的準備金。調整後的營業收入從 1.66 億美元降至 1.24 億美元。調整後的營業利潤率下降至 6%。運營現金流為負 5100 萬美元，我將在演示文稿的稍後部分提供進一步的評論。

Earnings per share diluted decreased by $0.28 where the main drivers were $0.33 from lower adjusted operating income partly mitigated by $0.04 from financial items. Our adjusted return on capital employed declined to 13% and the adjusted return on equity to 12%. We paid a dividend of $0.64 per share in the quarter, same as in the previous quarter and repurchased around 300,000 shares for $22 million under our 3-year stock repurchase program.

每股攤薄收益減少 0.28 美元，其中主要驅動因素為 0.33 美元，原因是調整後的營業收入下降，部分原因是金融項目減少了 0.04 美元。我們調整後的資本回報率下降至 13%，調整後的股本回報率下降至 12%。我們在本季度支付了每股 0.64 美元的股息，與上一季度相同，並根據我們的 3 年股票回購計劃以 2200 萬美元回購了約 300,000 股股票。

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the second quarter of 2022, our adjusted operating income of $124 million was $42 million lower than the same quarter last year. The impact of raw material price changes was negative $115 million in the quarter year-on-year. FX impacted the operating profit negatively by $20 million as a result of translation effects due to the stronger U.S. dollar and transaction effects mainly relating to comparing Japanese yen to the U.S. dollar and the Korean won to the U.S. dollar.

現在看下一張幻燈片上調整後的營業收入橋。 2022 年第二季度，我們調整後的營業收入為 1.24 億美元，比去年同期減少了 4200 萬美元。本季度原材料價格變動的影響為負 1.15 億美元。由於美元走強和交易影響，外匯對營業利潤產生了 2,000 萬美元的負面影響，主要涉及將日元兌美元和韓元兌美元進行比較。

SG&A and RD&E net combined was $6 million higher due to higher costs for IT and application engineering as well as timing of engineering income. Our improved pricing and other mitigating activities largely offset these significant headwinds.

由於 IT 和應用工程的成本增加以及工程收入的時間安排，SG&A 和 RD&E 的淨額合計增加了 600 萬美元。我們改進的定價和其他緩解活動在很大程度上抵消了這些重大不利因素。

Looking on the income development more closely on the next slide. In the quarter, the operating profit was helped by income from a patent litigation settlement that amounted to $21 million. Also, we recovered around $30 million related to cost increases from earlier periods. Excluding the patent litigation settlement and retroactive cost recoveries, the adjusted operating income was $73 million or 3.6% of sales. This was a notable improvement compared to the first quarter as customer pricing discussions and our strategic initiatives are yielding results.

在下一張幻燈片上更密切地關注收入發展。本季度，營業利潤得益於 2100 萬美元的專利訴訟和解收入。此外，我們收回了與早期成本增加相關的約 3000 萬美元。不計專利訴訟和解和追溯成本回收，調整後的營業收入為 7300 萬美元，佔銷售額的 3.6%。與第一季度相比，這是一個顯著的改善，因為客戶定價討論和我們的戰略舉措正在產生成果。

Looking closer on the cost recovery discussions on the next slide. To support a sustainable business model in the current high inflationary environment, we continue to work intensely with customers to secure price increases to compensate for inflationary pressure and supply chain disruptions. We have made progress on cost recovery through sustainable price increases with most customers. In many cases, the new pricing is retroactive to cover costs incurred in earlier periods. However, we're still being impacted by inflationary cost increases, so the discussions and negotiations continue. We're also negotiating more flexible customer contracts to ensure that future inflationary pressures are effectively and more timely pushed through the value chain.

仔細查看下一張幻燈片上的成本回收討論。為了在當前的高通脹環境中支持可持續的商業模式，我們將繼續與客戶密切合作，以確保價格上漲以彌補通脹壓力和供應鏈中斷。通過與大多數客戶的可持續價格上漲，我們在成本回收方面取得了進展。在許多情況下，新定價具有追溯性，以涵蓋早期產生的成本。但是，我們仍然受到通貨膨脹成本增加的影響，因此討論和談判仍在繼續。我們還在協商更靈活的客戶合同，以確保未來的通脹壓力能夠更有效、更及時地通過價值鏈。

Looking on the cash flow performance on the next slide. For the second quarter of 2022, operating cash flow decreased by $114 million to negative $51 million compared to last year mainly due to changes in working capital and the lower net income. During the quarter, working capital deteriorated by $239 million. The steep ramp-up in sales and the fact that we concluded a rather large number of compensation negotiations towards the end of the quarter as well as the patent litigation settlement had a temporary negative effect on working capital. In the second half of 2022, the timing of the customer compensations will support a more favorable cash flow development.

查看下一張幻燈片上的現金流表現。與去年相比，2022 年第二季度的運營現金流減少了 1.14 億美元至負 5100 萬美元，主要是由於營運資金的變化和淨收入的下降。本季度，營運資金減少了 2.39 億美元。銷售額的急劇增長以及我們在本季度末完成了大量的賠償談判以及專利訴訟和解的事實對營運資金產生了暫時的負面影響。 2022年下半年，客戶補償的時機將支持更有利的現金流發展。

In the quarter, the continued volatile light vehicle production and logistics challenges drove inventories higher. The inefficiency in inventory was in excess of $100 million at the end of the quarter. Our ambition is to eliminate these inefficiencies as soon as possible, which requires a further stabilization of the supply chain and call-off patterns from our customers.

本季度，持續波動的輕型汽車生產和物流挑戰推動庫存增加。到本季度末，庫存效率低下超過 1 億美元。我們的目標是盡快消除這些低效率，這需要進一步穩定供應鍊和客戶的取消模式。

For the second quarter, capital expenditures net increased by 44% to $139 million. In relation to sales, it was 6.7% versus 4.7% a year earlier. The increase is mainly related to the ongoing footprint activities and capacity expansion in China as part of our strategic road map. For the second quarter of 2022, free cash flow was minus $190 million compared to minus $33 million a year earlier, driven by the lower operating cash flow and the higher capital expenditures. The cash conversion over the last 12 months was around 30%. In the quarter, we paid $56 million in dividends and repurchased shares for $22 million.

第二季度，資本支出淨額增長 44% 至 1.39 億美元。就銷售額而言，為 6.7%，而一年前為 4.7%。這一增長主要與作為我們戰略路線圖一部分的中國正在進行的足跡活動和產能擴張有關。 2022 年第二季度的自由現金流為負 1.9 億美元，而去年同期為負 3300 萬美元，這是由於運營現金流減少和資本支出增加所致。過去 12 個月的現金轉換率約為 30%。本季度，我們支付了 5600 萬美元的股息，並以 2200 萬美元的價格回購了股票。

Now looking on our leverage ratio development on the next slide. In the quarter, we continued to repurchase shares, and we maintained our dividend. The leverage ratio at the end of June 2022 was 1.7x. This was 0.3x higher than in the previous quarter as our 12 months trading adjusted EBITDA decreased by $51 million and our net debt increased by $244 million. We see this as a temporary situation, and we expect to be back within the range later in the year.

現在在下一張幻燈片中查看我們的槓桿率發展。本季度，我們繼續回購股票，維持股息。 2022 年 6 月末的槓桿率為 1.7 倍。這比上一季度高出 0.3 倍，因為我們 12 個月的交易調整後 EBITDA 減少了 5100 萬美元，我們的淨債務增加了 2.44 億美元。我們認為這是暫時的情況，我們預計會在今年晚些時候回到這個範圍內。

Now looking at the raw material development on to the next slide. We still experienced volatile commodity markets coming from the Ukraine war, COVID-related lockdowns and general inflationary pressure. It is encouraging that some commodity prices have decreased since March's highs, especially metals. Cost increases for raw materials generated a gross headwind of $115 million or almost 6 percentage points to our operating margin in the second quarter. As expected, this was slightly higher than in the first quarter.

現在看下一張幻燈片的原材料開發。我們仍然經歷了來自烏克蘭戰爭、與 COVID 相關的封鎖和總體通脹壓力的大宗商品市場波動。令人鼓舞的是，一些大宗商品價格自 3 月份的高點以來已經下跌，尤其是金屬。原材料成本的增加給我們第二季度的營業利潤率帶來了 1.15 億美元的總逆風，或近 6 個百分點。正如預期的那樣，這比第一季度略高。

In the current price environment, we believe that raw material costs before any customer compensations could be around 5.5 percentage points in operating margin headwind for the full year 2022. This situation is addressed through targeted actions and negotiations with customers as already outlined. We're also stepping up cost control measures as shown on the next slide.

在當前的價格環境下，我們認為，在獲得任何客戶補償之前，原材料成本可能會在 2022 年全年的營業利潤率逆風中下降 5.5 個百分點左右。正如已經概述的，通過有針對性的行動和與客戶的談判來解決這種情況。我們還在加強成本控制措施，如下一張幻燈片所示。

In response to the sharp increase in raw material prices and cost inflation, we continue with strict cost control measures, a hiring freeze and accelerated cost savings and footprint activities. Additionally, we are reducing consultants and temporary employees, and we are reviewing and prioritizing projects. As a result of these activities, headcount is virtually unchanged year-over-year despite substantially higher organic sales. We continue to execute on our capital efficiency program to improve trade working capital. We also focus on balancing headcount with expected demand.

為應對原材料價格的急劇上漲和成本上漲，我們繼續採取嚴格的成本控制措施、凍結招聘並加快成本節約和足跡活動。此外，我們正在減少顧問和臨時僱員，我們正在審查和優先考慮項目。由於這些活動，儘管有機銷售額大幅增加，但員工人數與去年同期相比幾乎沒有變化。我們繼續執行我們的資本效率計劃，以提高貿易營運資本。我們還專注於平衡員工人數與預期需求。

Now switching to the market development, I hand it back to Mikael.

現在轉向市場開發，我把它交還給 Mikael。

Thank you, Fredrik. Looking now at the LVP development on the next slide. The second quarter light vehicle production was influenced by the ongoing component shortages and the COVID-related lockdowns in China. However, there are signs that the situation is improving and that the second quarter was the low point of this year. As inventories of new vehicles continue to trend at a record low level and strong OEM order backlogs, we believe the short-term light vehicle production development will depend on the industry's ability to build vehicles, not on the macro sentiment.

謝謝你，弗雷德里克。現在看下一張幻燈片上的 LVP 開發。第二季度輕型汽車生產受到持續的零部件短缺和中國與 COVID 相關的封鎖的影響。然而，有跡象表明情況正在好轉，第二季度是今年的低點。由於新車庫存繼續處於歷史低位，且 OEM 訂單積壓強勁，我們認為短期輕型車生產發展將取決於行業的造車能力，而不是宏觀情緒。

We expect to see substantial year-over-year light vehicle production growth in Q3 and Q4 as the light vehicle production in the second half of 2021 was highly affected by semiconductor shortages, especially in the third quarter. However, total volumes are still expected to be well below the LVP level in the second half of 2020. Additionally, as most LVP -- most of LVP growth is forecasted to come in high CPV markets, the regional mix is expected to be favorable in the second half of the year.

我們預計第三季度和第四季度輕型汽車產量將同比大幅增長，因為 2021 年下半年的輕型汽車產量受到半導體短缺的嚴重影響，尤其是在第三季度。然而，預計到 2020 年下半年，總銷量仍將遠低於 LVP 水平。此外，由於大多數 LVP（大部分 LVP 增長預計將來自高 CPV 市場），因此預計區域組合將在下半年。

Looking at LVP forecast in more detail on the next slide. The auto industry continues to operate at or near recessionary levels impacted by supply chain challenges. For the third quarter of 2022, global LVP is expected to grow by over 20% compared to the very weak LVP in the third quarter of 2021 according to IHS Markit. Sequentially, LVP is expected to improve by 8% compared to Q2 as the availability of automotive semiconductors is expected to improve.

在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地查看 LVP 預測。受供應鏈挑戰影響，汽車行業繼續處於或接近衰退水平。根據 IHS Markit 的數據，與 2021 年第三季度非常疲軟的 LVP 相比，2022 年第三季度全球 LVP 預計將增長 20% 以上。與第二季度相比，隨著汽車半導體的可用性有望改善，LVP 預計將依次提高 8%。

In North America, sales of new vehicles remain well below demand and well below sales a year ago. With dealer inventories remaining at historically low levels, the lockdowns in China affected North American production in the later part of the second quarter. This situation is expected to improve gradually.

在北美，新車銷量仍遠低於需求，也遠低於一年前的銷量。由於經銷商庫存仍處於歷史低位，中國的封鎖在第二季度後期影響了北美的生產。這種情況有望逐步改善。

For European production, we expect volume recovery as supply constraints continue to ease. In China, light vehicle production in June was up over 30% year-over-year as lockdowns were lifted and demand was stimulated by tax incentives. However, continued supply chain challenges limit the level of growth.

對於歐洲產量，我們預計隨著供應限制繼續緩解，產量將恢復。在中國，由於解除封鎖和稅收優惠刺激了需求，6 月份輕型汽車產量同比增長 30% 以上。然而，持續的供應鏈挑戰限制了增長水平。

Now looking on the 2022 business outlook on the next slide. We expect higher sales outperformance versus LVP for the rest of the year, supported by launches, regional mix and higher prices. We also expect improvements in the second half of the year from alignment of direct labor with LVP, footprint optimization activities and a less volatile LVP. We expect this to lead to a strong second half year profitability compared to the first half year.

現在看下一張幻燈片上的 2022 年業務前景。在發布、區域組合和更高價格的支持下，我們預計今年剩餘時間的銷售業績將高於 LVP。我們還預計下半年直接勞動力與 LVP 的一致性、足跡優化活動和波動性較小的 LVP 會有所改善。與上半年相比，我們預計這將導致下半年的盈利能力強勁。

Looking at the updated full year 2022 indications on the next slide. Our full year 2022 indications exclude cost for capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters and other discrete items. We adjust our full year indications to a tighter range, reflecting our activities and the shorter time span remaining of the year. The updated indications assumes that global light vehicle production will grow between 2% and 5% and that we achieved our targeted cost inflation compensation plus some level of market stabilization. We expect sales to increase organically by around 13% to 16%. Currency translation effects on sales are assumed to be around a negative 5%. We expect an adjusted operating margin of around 6% to 7%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around $750 million to $850 million.

查看下一張幻燈片上更新的 2022 年全年指標。我們的 2022 年全年指標不包括產能調整、反壟斷相關事項和其他離散項目的成本。我們將全年指標調整為更窄的範圍，以反映我們的活動和一年中剩餘的較短時間跨度。更新後的跡象假設全球輕型汽車產量將增長 2% 至 5%，並且我們實現了目標成本通脹補償以及一定程度的市場穩定。我們預計銷售額將有機增長約 13% 至 16%。假設貨幣換算對銷售額的影響約為負 5%。我們預計調整後的營業利潤率約為 6% 至 7%。經營現金流預計在 7.5 億至 8.5 億美元之間。

Turning to the next slide. In closing, to summarize our 2022 outlook, we expect continued strong outperformance versus LVP, supported mainly by product launches, increasing content per vehicle and price increases. We expect to gradually offset much of the cost inflation in the coming quarters, putting us on a trajectory towards our midterm targets based on the framework outlined at our Capital Market Day in 2021. Additionally, our balance sheet and cash flow should allow for continued shareholder returns.

轉到下一張幻燈片。最後，總結一下我們對 2022 年的展望，我們預計將繼續強勁的表現優於 LVP，這主要受到產品發布、每輛車內容增加和價格上漲的支持。我們預計將在未來幾個季度逐步抵消大部分成本通脹，使我們在 2021 年資本市場日概述的框架基礎上朝著中期目標邁進。此外，我們的資產負債表和現金流應該允許繼續持有股東返回。

We remain mindful of the risk of deteriorating economic conditions, but I'm confident that our leading position, the work we have done to become more resilient and our experience and agility will enable us to manage future challenging conditions.

我們仍然注意經濟狀況惡化的風險，但我相信，我們的領先地位、我們為變得更有彈性所做的工作以及我們的經驗和敏捷性將使我們能夠應對未來的挑戰。

I will now hand it back to Anders.

我現在把它還給安德斯。

Thank you, Mikael. Turning to the next slide. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions. So I now turn it back to you, Cindy.

謝謝你，米凱爾。轉到下一張幻燈片。我們對今天的財報電話會議的正式評論到此結束，我們想打開電話提問。所以我現在把它還給你，辛迪。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Mattias Holmberg from DNB.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 DNB 的 Mattias Holmberg。

My question is regarding the commercial recoveries. And it would be very interesting to hear if there's anything you can say, first of all, in terms of what we should expect going forward? Is sort of the level of the $30 million in Q2 a reasonable assumption for the rest of the year or any other quarters? And then I'm also interested here if you're only negotiating recoveries for periods in 2022 or if you're also looking into getting recoveries for what happened in 2021?

我的問題是關於商業回收的。聽聽您是否有什麼可以說的，首先，就我們應該期待的未來而言，這將是非常有趣的？第二季度的 3000 萬美元水平是今年剩餘時間或任何其他季度的合理假設嗎？如果您只是在協商 2022 年的恢復期，或者您是否也在尋求恢復 2021 年發生的事情，那麼我在這裡也很感興趣？

Thank you for your questions. When it comes to the price negotiations, we can't guide in any -- describe in any details how these are going. But I would say that what we have achieved so far is in line with what we need to do going forward here to, I would say, restore the balance between our prices to our customers and the cost impacts we see. Focus, of course, initially here has been on what has come first, so to speak, hitting us in terms of raw material. But of course, we are covering all the different parameters here that we have talked about when it comes to utilities, inflationary labor cost and the freight side of the business as well here.

謝謝你的提問。在價格談判方面，我們無法提供任何指導——詳細描述這些談判的進展情況。但我想說的是，到目前為止，我們所取得的成就與我們未來需要做的事情是一致的，我想說的是，恢復我們對客戶的價格與我們看到的成本影響之間的平衡。當然，最初的重點是先到先得，可以這麼說，在原材料方面打擊我們。但是，當然，我們在這裡涵蓋了我們在公用事業、通貨膨脹勞動力成本和業務貨運方面討論過的所有不同參數。

And in terms of the time horizon here, which we are covering in the discussion, it's really focusing on restoring the height, so to speak, on the price and that we get the balance right there. Of course, there are, as we have indicated here also, retroactive aspects. But there, it depends on what kind of costs we're talking about and when they occurred and so on. But as we have said all along, our focus here is to get full compensation for the cost increases outside out-of-lease control is what we're looking at.

就我們在討論中討論的時間範圍而言，它真正關注的是恢復高度，可以說是價格，我們在那裡取得平衡。當然，正如我們在這裡所指出的，還有追溯方面。但是，這取決於我們談論的成本類型以及它們發生的時間等等。但正如我們一直所說的那樣，我們的重點是對超出租賃控制範圍的成本增加進行全面補償，這正是我們所關注的。

Maybe just a quick follow-up and a rephrasing perhaps of my question. Can you say out of all the negotiations that you're in, how many have you concluded in this quarter?

也許只是對我的問題的快速跟進和改寫。你能說在你參與的所有談判中，你在本季度完成了多少？

I can't give you that indication. I think the main message here is really that, I mean, of course, we are negotiating with the full customer base here, meaning all our customers. And depending on the development here, it's an ongoing effort here. So I would say the work continues very much as we move forward here and we see the continued inflationary pressure affecting us here. So it's not finalized in any way. It's an ongoing work as long as we have this cost situation.

我不能給你那個暗示。我認為這裡的主要信息是，我的意思是，當然，我們正在與這裡的全部客戶群進行談判，這意味著我們所有的客戶。根據這裡的發展，這是一項持續的努力。所以我想說，隨著我們在這裡向前發展，這項工作仍在繼續，我們看到持續的通脹壓力在這裡影響著我們。所以它沒有以任何方式最終確定。只要我們有這種成本情況，這是一項持續的工作。

The next question comes from Emmanuel Rosner from Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

Maybe just to start off, following up on the commercial recoveries discussion. So the retroactive ones that you achieved in the second quarter, I think in the press release you were mentioning June playing out better than expected partly due to this. Were these sort of like unexpected? Or was it just the timing of it a surprise? And should we expect more retroactive recoveries in the second half? I guess what I'm trying to get to is to what extent would the second half margin run rate would be a good base to estimate 2023? Or is this a starting point for 2023? Or how much of it would benefit from retroactive recoveries as well?

也許只是開始，跟進商業回收討論。因此，您在第二季度實現的追溯性目標，我認為您在新聞稿中提到 6 月份的表現好於預期，部分原因是這一點。這些是不是有點出乎意料？還是只是驚喜的時機？我們是否應該期待下半年會有更多的追溯性恢復？我想我想知道的是，下半年的利潤率運行率在多大程度上是估計 2023 年的良好基礎？或者這是 2023 年的起點？或者有多少也將從追溯恢復中受益？

I couldn't quantify that for you here. But as I said before here, I mean, the focus is to get the height. That's the priority here -- for us here. And of course, when it comes to the timing, as this is negotiations, you could say, I mean, if we had concluded on Monday instead of Friday at the end of the quarter, it makes a difference, of course. And as we have been in these negotiations for some time, I mean, we have very detailed discussion. And that's why it's taking time as well because we are negotiating contract by contract with each customer here, and it's really on plant level as well. So there's a lot of detail that needs to come in to -- is coming into play here in those discussions. That's why it's taking, of course, time. And the timing of it is depending on how quickly we conclude those discussions. It's difficult to give that kind of indications at this point in time. But the bottom line here is that we are on track towards what we have told you before what we need to do to reach our full year guidance here.

我無法在這里為您量化。但正如我之前所說，我的意思是，重點是獲得高度。這是這裡的首要任務——對我們來說。當然，談到時機，因為這是談判，你可以說，我的意思是，如果我們在本季度末的星期一而不是星期五結束，那當然會有所不同。由於我們已經在這些談判中進行了一段時間，我的意思是，我們進行了非常詳細的討論。這也是為什麼它也需要時間的原因，因為我們正在與這裡的每個客戶逐個談判合同，而且實際上也是在工廠層面。所以有很多細節需要進入——在這些討論中發揮作用。這就是為什麼它當然需要時間。其時間取決於我們結束這些討論的速度。目前很難給出這樣的指示。但這裡的底線是，在我們需要做些什麼來達到我們的全年指導之前，我們正在朝著我們告訴你的方向前進。

So let me ask you this differently then -- let me ask differently, and then I have a follow-up on commodities. But your second half implied margin based on your new guidance range, at the midpoint, it's like 8.2%. Would this second half margin include also some retroactive recoveries or only forward-looking new pricing?

那麼讓我換一種方式問你——讓我換一種方式問，然後我會對商品進行跟進。但是根據您的新指導範圍，您下半年的隱含利潤率在中點約為 8.2%。下半年的利潤率是否還包括一些追溯性回收或僅包括前瞻性的新定價？

I mean the short answer is yes. I mean everything we get retroactive will be booked in the second quarter and effect -- sorry, second half year, sorry. So you will get it there. So yes.

我的意思是簡短的回答是肯定的。我的意思是我們追溯的所有東西都將在第二季度預訂並生效——對不起，下半年，對不起。所以你會得到它。所以是的。

Yes, there would be retroactive recoveries as well.

是的，也會有追溯性恢復。

In the case there is retroactive, it will affect the second half year.

如有追溯，將影響下半年。

Right.

正確的。

That's where -- if I understand your question right.

那就是-如果我正確理解您的問題。

Right. All right. Let me just switch to commodities quickly. So I think your outlook is still for 550 basis points in a hit to margin this year, but basically evenly spread out by quarters. Now as you noted in your slides, some of these commodities that sort of started inflecting down. Can you just give a little bit more detail on what sort of like commodities will be the largest headwinds for you in the second half? And if prices sort of like remain where they've sort of like fallen back to, is there some -- could that be a tailwind in 2023?

正確的。好的。讓我快速切換到商品。所以我認為你的前景仍然是今年利潤率受到衝擊的 550 個基點，但基本上是按季度平均分佈的。現在，正如您在幻燈片中指出的那樣，其中一些商品開始向下彎曲。您能否更詳細地說明下半年對您來說最大的不利因素是哪種類似商品？如果價格有點像保持在他們有點像回落的地方，是否有一些——這會是 2023 年的順風嗎？

Yes. I mean, yes, that is from the indication taken down the impact that we see for the year from around 6 to 5.5 percentage points. The main impact is still from steel even though that impact has also come down. But it remains our, say, the largest year-over-year issue or impact on our cost development. Pretty much all major commodities for us, we do see an improvement. But due to the contract structure that we have with our supply base, it takes some time then for the spot price movements to flow through into our cost setup here.

是的。我的意思是，是的，這是從我們看到的今年影響從大約 6 個百分點降低到 5.5 個百分點的跡像中得出的。主要影響仍然來自鋼鐵，儘管這種影響也有所下降。但它仍然是我們最大的同比問題或對我們成本發展的影響。對我們來說幾乎所有主要商品，我們確實看到了改善。但是由於我們與供應基地的合同結構，現貨價格變動需要一些時間才能流入我們這裡的成本設置。

And then for 2023, I mean, it remains to be seen. Should they remain at, say, the lower levels where some of the metals are right now, obviously, that should then be beneficial for us going into 2023, yes.

然後到 2023 年，我的意思是，還有待觀察。如果它們保持在一些金屬目前處於的較低水平，顯然，這對我們進入 2023 年應該是有利的，是的。

The next question comes from Hampus Engellau from Handelsbanken.

下一個問題來自 Handelsbanken 的 Hampus Engellau。

Two questions for me. I guess, Mikael, this is more of a general question. But given the historic pattern on the cost and then the price negotiations for you guys, I mean, you're currently almost at 50% global market share. Is there any initiative that you might kind of change your pricing model, try to be a little bit more aggressive using your strong market position given that you probably should be the market leader in pricing? That's the first question.

我有兩個問題。我想，Mikael，這更像是一個籠統的問題。但考慮到成本的歷史模式以及你們的價格談判，我的意思是，你們目前幾乎佔據全球市場份額的 50%。考慮到您可能應該成為定價的市場領導者，您是否有任何舉措可以改變您的定價模式，嘗試利用您強大的市場地位更加激進一些？這是第一個問題。

Second question is more related to how this would work when you are in balance on the cost that you're currently compensating for in the segmental prices coming down, as an example, will you then be immediately given back that? Or will you kind of overcompensate? Those are my 2 questions.

第二個問題與您當前在分段價格下降中補償的成本保持平衡時，這將如何運作更相關，例如，您會立即得到回報嗎？還是你會過度補償？這是我的兩個問題。

Let me start by taking the first 2 question first, and then I'll let Fredrik answer the second question there. I think, I mean, first of all, we should remember here that we haven't been in a situation where we have been needed to go to our customer with price increases for at least 25 years here. Yes, we have the annual negotiations with the customer where we have, I would say, certain elements of volume, steel prices, et cetera, very few items that we cover every year. But in this magnitude and this breadth of costs items to discuss, we haven't seen in the industry, I would say, for this very long time period. So this is a new situation. And of course, it requires a lot of additional work between ourselves and the customer here on a very, very detailed level.

讓我先回答前兩個問題，然後讓 Fredrik 在那裡回答第二個問題。我認為，我的意思是，首先，我們應該記住，我們在這里至少有 25 年沒有遇到過需要向客戶提價的情況。是的，我們每年都會與客戶進行談判，我想說的是，數量、鋼材價格等方面的某些要素，我們每年涵蓋的項目很少。但是，在這個規模和如此廣泛的成本項目中，我們在這個行業中還沒有看到，我想說，在很長一段時間內。所以這是一個新情況。當然，這需要我們和客戶之間在非常非常詳細的層面上進行大量額外的工作。

And the pricing power, if you put it like that, is really when we have the quote process. So when we have an RFQ for a new program, that's where you could say that the market position is playing out. Then we are in contracts with our customer for the life of that vehicle, simply put. And that is what we're now going through and negotiating here. And I would say we have good discussions here with our customers. And it is a fact-based and the detailed discussions that we are working our way through here now and that is gradually paying off fair in line with what we have discussed. So a little bit new territory, but the real pricing is in the RFQ process.

定價權，如果你這麼說的話，就是我們有報價流程的時候。所以當我們有一個新項目的詢價時，你可以說市場地位正在發揮作用。然後，簡單地說，我們就該車輛的使用壽命與我們的客戶簽訂了合同。這就是我們現在正在經歷和談判的事情。我想說我們在這裡與客戶進行了很好的討論。這是一個基於事實的詳細討論，我們現在正在這裡進行工作，並且根據我們所討論的內容逐漸得到公平的回報。所以有點新的領域，但真正的定價是在 RFQ 過程中。

Then on your second question on the correlation between, say, cost and price development going forward. I mean for us, the priority has been to restore our pricing levels then to make sure that whatever the cost inflation has been so far that we get the right adjustment for that going forward, as Mikael said before. We will after these negotiations and already now have a higher level of indexation, which then also will reduce our volatility or our exposure to the spread between the raw material cost development and our top line. And these structures that we are now on with our customers to a larger extent, they vary from between, say, quarterly to annual structures. So it will vary a little bit then how the cost development will then ultimately come through on the pricing side in both directions.

然後是關於未來成本和價格發展之間相關性的第二個問題。我的意思是，對我們來說，首要任務是恢復我們的定價水平，然後確保無論到目前為止的成本通脹如何，我們都能為未來做出正確的調整，正如 Mikael 之前所說的那樣。我們將在這些談判之後並且現在已經有了更高水平的指數化，這也將減少我們的波動性或我們在原材料成本發展和我們的收入之間的利差中的敞口。而我們現在在更大程度上與客戶合作的這些結構，它們從季度到年度結構之間有所不同。因此，成本開發最終將如何在定價方面雙向進行會有所不同。

The next question comes from Colin Langan from Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

Just following up on commodities. You took it down a bit. Is there any good news left on that 550 for 2022? Or is it just given the contract timing, that's all going to be recovered in '23? And what did sort of drive that? Is that just the mark-to-market help from the spot prices? That has nothing to do with the customer negotiations, right?

只是跟進商品。你把它拿下來了一點。 2022 年的 550 有什麼好消息嗎？還是只是考慮到合同時間，這一切都將在 23 年恢復？是什麼推動了這一點？這僅僅是現貨價格的盯市幫助嗎？跟客戶談判沒關係吧？

No, so this is cost impact that we're guiding for. It does not include any compensation effect from our customers. So it's the pure cost impact on our profit and loss statement that we're expecting for this year. And as I said, I mean, we have seen commodity prices come down mostly on metals. And we also do expect a limited impact from that towards the second half -- or in the second half of the year here also on our cost base. But due to the structures that we have with our customers, also here, we have between quarterly and annual setups. There is a time lag then of how these spot price developments then translate into our cost structure.

不，所以這是我們正在指導的成本影響。它不包括我們客戶的任何補償效果。因此，這是我們預計今年對我們損益表的純成本影響。正如我所說，我的意思是，我們已經看到大宗商品價格下跌主要是受金屬影響。而且我們也確實預計這對下半年的影響有限 - 或者在今年下半年，我們的成本基礎也是如此。但由於我們與客戶之間的結構，同樣在這裡，我們有季度和年度之間的設置。這些現貨價格發展如何轉化為我們的成本結構存在時間滯後。

Okay. So doesn't work. There's less room there, okay. And then just looking at the full year guidance change, I mean, I think it implies around at the midpoint around $12 million increase in operating income for the year. But Q2 came in quite a bit better than expected. You had the $22 million in litigation settlement that I assume wasn't expected. Commodity headwinds, I think, are roughly $50 million lower than what you're expecting. So why not a bigger full year increase? Or what sort of is offsetting that from a second half outlook at this point?

好的。所以行不通。那裡的空間少了，好吧。然後只看全年的指導變化，我的意思是，我認為這意味著在中點左右，全年營業收入增加了 1200 萬美元左右。但第二季度的表現好於預期。你有 2200 萬美元的訴訟和解金，我認為這是意料之外的。我認為，商品逆風比您的預期低大約 5000 萬美元。那麼為什麼不增加更大的全年增長呢？或者在這一點上是什麼抵消了下半年的前景？

Yes. So we are looking at a substantial improvement in the second half of the year. So we are somewhere around 7% to 9% versus around 4.5% in the first half of the year. You highlighted some of the positive factors, but there are also some headwinds. We, for instance, see that FX is now a larger headwind than what we had included in our guidance, both for the full year and after Q1. So that will have a larger negative impact on us than we had expected just 3 months ago. And we also see that there are some other cost components that are raw material related, for instance, logistics also have more unfavorable development. So there are a couple of components that are offsetting the ones that you mentioned.

是的。因此，我們正在尋找下半年的實質性改善。所以我們在 7% 到 9% 左右，而今年上半年約為 4.5%。您強調了一些積極因素，但也存在一些不利因素。例如，我們看到外匯現在比我們在全年和第一季度之後的指導中包含的阻力更大。因此，這將對我們產生比我們 3 個月前預期的更大的負面影響。我們也看到，還有一些其他的成本構成與原材料有關，比如物流也有更不利的發展。因此，有幾個組件可以抵消您提到的組件。

The next question comes from Chris McNally from Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Chris McNally。

I wanted to kind of go a little bit broader on the raw materials. I apologize if it's like the third or fourth question on it. But rather than specific on timing and specific contracts, if we step back and think about that 550 basis points of gross raw material inflation, there's obviously a net number there. You've covered on a certain amount. Whatever that net number is, we all can kind of make our own estimates. I guess what we're trying to figure out is, will that be -- do you think you'll get the majority of that recovered over '22 and '23 so that 2024 is sort of "normalize" and you sound pretty confident on your 12% margin. Is that the right way to think about it that the recoveries could be sort of the majority of that net will go away by the end of '23 sort of a 2-year basis?

我想在原材料上更廣泛一點。如果它像第三或第四個問題，我很抱歉。但不是具體時間和具體合同，如果我們退後一步想想 550 個基點的原材料通脹總額，顯然有一個淨數字。你已經覆蓋了一定的金額。無論這個淨數字是多少，我們都可以做出自己的估計。我想我們要弄清楚的是，那會是 - 你認為你會在 22 年和 23 年恢復大部分嗎，這樣 2024 年就有點“正常化”了，你聽起來很自信您的 12% 保證金。這是正確的思考方式，即復蘇可能是該網絡的大部分，將在 23 年結束時消失，以 2 年為基礎？

Correct, yes. So what we're aiming for is to get pricing compensations that then offset these headwinds that you just talked about, including the 5.5 percentage point margin impact of raw materials from this year. And we are not only putting raw materials on the table, but also, as we mentioned, utilities, labor costs and also logistics. And we have close some of those agreements then also with the heights that we were aiming for to be able to offset these costs. And then they should come through here -- the majority of this should come through during this year.

正確，是的。因此，我們的目標是獲得定價補償，然後抵消您剛才談到的這些不利因素，包括今年原材料對利潤率的 5.5 個百分點影響。我們不僅將原材料擺在桌面上，而且正如我們所提到的，還包括公用事業、勞動力成本和物流。我們已經完成了其中一些協議，然後還達到了我們旨在能夠抵消這些成本的高度。然後他們應該在這裡完成——其中大部分應該在今年完成。

Okay. That's great. And then just thinking longer term, there's always this question of you sort of normalized guidance of 12%. I think the way you phrased it is sort of low $90 million production the way LMC or IHS and if that happens to be sort of what were both forecasts are for 2024. And on the raw materials, you talked about a flattening. Is the second part, the raw materials, are we at a level that the 12% would be realistic? Or is there another consideration because we kind of had a step-up when you first gave that? I'm trying to get a sense that the 12% is a good proxy for 2024 since that's where the industry production is expected to be.

好的。那太棒了。然後只是考慮更長遠的問題，總是有這個問題是關於 12% 的標準化指導。我認為你所說的方式是像 LMC 或 IHS 那樣低 9000 萬美元的產量，如果這恰好是對 2024 年的預測的話。在原材料方面，你談到了扁平化。第二部分，原材料，我們是否達到了 12% 的水平？還是有其他考慮因素，因為當你第一次給出的時候我們有點進步？我試圖了解 12% 是 2024 年的一個很好的代表，因為這是行業生產的預期水平。

I think what we're assuming now here is, of course, the framework we gave in the Capital Markets Day, and that's still valid. And we said at least 85 million vehicles, and we had the net effect on the raw material side that is back at 2021 year's level. So that's -- that still stands. And as we have described here today, I think we are heading in that direction than what the world will look like on a certain date. That's, of course, the question here. But I feel comfortable that what we can control, we are controlling well in line with what we have said here. And so I think that's as much we can describe the target of around 12% there.

我認為我們現在在這裡假設的當然是我們在資本市場日給出的框架，而且這仍然有效。我們說至少有 8500 萬輛汽車，我們對原材料方面的淨影響回到了 2021 年的水平。所以那 - 仍然存在。正如我們今天在這裡所描述的那樣，我認為我們正朝著這個方向前進，而不是某個日期的世界將是什麼樣子。當然，這就是這裡的問題。但我感到很舒服，我們可以控制，我們控制得很好，符合我們在這裡所說的。所以我認為這就是我們可以描述的大約 12% 的目標。

The next question comes from Giulio Pescatore from BNP Exane.

下一個問題來自 BNP Exane 的 Giulio Pescatore。

The first one on natural gas, you leave it for the manufacturing process of airbags. So I was wondering, are you looking at alternatives to the first in case we go into restrictions in Europe? And is there an alternative? Is there an easier alternative for you?

第一個是天然氣，你把它留給安全氣囊的製造過程。所以我想知道，如果我們在歐洲受到限制，你是否正在尋找第一個的替代方案？還有其他選擇嗎？有更簡單的選擇嗎？

And then the second question on the top line. You did increase the LVP guidance, but you didn't increase the organic growth guidance, which implies that your outperformance is supposed to be slightly lower, which surprises me given your comments on having positive regional mix going forward especially in H2. So can you maybe explain what's changed there?

然後是最上面的第二個問題。你確實提高了 LVP 指導，但你沒有提高有機增長指導，這意味著你的表現應該略低，這讓我感到驚訝，因為你對未來的積極區域組合特別是在下半年的評論。那麼你能解釋一下那裡發生了什麼變化嗎？

On your first question on natural gas, we do not use gas for processing in our manufacturing processes. So we were not exposed to natural gas in that sense. We do use it for heating of some of our facilities. So that's the only exposure we have. So in that sense, we, of course, monitoring very closely what is happening here in the market. But our exposure would be more on the impact on our suppliers or then indirectly through impacts on our customers.

關於您關於天然氣的第一個問題，我們在製造過程中不使用天然氣進行加工。所以從這個意義上說，我們沒有接觸到天然氣。我們確實使用它來加熱我們的一些設施。所以這是我們唯一的曝光。因此，從這個意義上說，我們當然會非常密切地監控市場上正在發生的事情。但我們的曝光更多地是對我們的供應商的影響，或者間接地通過對我們客戶的影響。

Then on LVP, yes, we're now guiding for 11% of performance. So the 2% to 5% range, that's mainly, as we said in the presentation, that the time frame has shortened here for the year. And we think that, that range is realistic. We've had a quite significant negative mix year-to-date of around 6%. And that is the main reason why we take down our full year outperformance then from 12% to 11%. So the mix component in there has deteriorated slightly. All the others, like content per vehicle, market share and also pricing remain unchanged versus our previous guidance.

然後在 LVP 上，是的，我們現在指導 11% 的性能。所以 2% 到 5% 的範圍，正如我們在演示文稿中所說，這主要是因為今年的時間框架已經縮短。我們認為，這個範圍是現實的。年初至今，我們的負面組合相當顯著，約為 6%。這就是我們將全年業績從 12% 降至 11% 的主要原因。所以里面的混合成分稍微變質了。與我們之前的指導相比，所有其他方面，例如每輛車的內容、市場份額和定價都保持不變。

The next question comes from Joseph Spak from RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Joseph Spak。

Maybe just going back to raw materials for a second here and also the comment on sort of being more flexible. I understand there might be timing impacts here, but if those inputs continue to be deflationary, I'm assuming those flexible pricing arrangements work both ways. So is it possible that as you sort of get beyond '23 and maybe before that, that you would have to give back even more than the price downs that you've typically become accustomed to for -- at Autoliv?

也許只是在這裡回到原材料一秒鐘，還有關於更靈活的評論。我知道這裡可能會有時間影響，但如果這些輸入繼續導致通縮，我假設這些靈活的定價安排是雙向的。那麼，當你超過 23 年或者在此之前，你是否有可能不得不回饋比你通常習慣的降價更多的回報——在 Autoliv？

No. I think -- I mean, as I said, I mean if we get on more indexation programs, I would say, there is no -- let me put it like this, the net effect of what we get out over a cycle or of a period here with this program is not changing. I think we get a smoother development with indexation programs, indexation clauses here because we'll get a quick compensation. And of course, yes, it has a quicker reduction. But net-net, shouldn't be any difference here because it's tied together also, of course, with our -- how we are balancing our supplier base here. So that's a very important component to make sure that, that is tying together. And we feel comfortable with that setup. We shorten the lead times. That's basically the effect.

不，我認為——我的意思是，正如我所說，我的意思是，如果我們進行更多的索引程序，我會說，沒有——讓我這樣說，我們在一個週期內得到的淨效應或者這個程序的一個時期是沒有改變的。我認為我們在這里通過索引程序和索引子句得到了更順利的發展，因為我們會得到快速的補償。當然，是的，它的減少速度更快。但是 net-net 在這裡應該沒有任何區別，因為它當然也與我們聯繫在一起 - 我們如何在這里平衡我們的供應商基礎。所以這是一個非常重要的組成部分，以確保將其捆綁在一起。我們對這種設置感到滿意。我們縮短交貨時間。基本上就是這樣的效果。

Okay. And then maybe going back to a follow-up on Chris' question before as we sort of think going forward and I recognize you're not going to give or update sort of guidance here, but even if we think like is 8% margin level for the back half is maybe sort of a decent base. And then we look at even for next year sort of industry expectations plus your outgrowth algorithm and historical 25% incrementals, you can get back to sort of even like over -- around 9%, maybe 9.5% next year. So is it -- just remind us, is it really just volume that gets you to the 12%. I mean I know you've taken some actions here in the near term, but some of them seem may be more temporary than permanent. So can you just remind us of really the big drivers to get back to 12%?

好的。然後可能會回到 Chris 之前的問題的後續跟進，因為我們有點想繼續前進，我知道你不會在這裡給出或更新某種指導，但即使我們認為是 8% 的保證金水平因為後半部分可能是一個不錯的基礎。然後我們看看明年的行業預期加上你的增長算法和歷史 25% 的增量，你可以回到甚至超過 - 大約 9%，明年可能是 9.5%。是嗎 - 提醒我們，真的只是音量讓你達到 12%。我的意思是我知道你在短期內已經採取了一些行動，但其中一些似乎是暫時的而不是永久性的。那麼你能提醒我們真正回到 12% 的主要驅動因素嗎？

No, I think I mean, the driver is to get us to the 12% remains the same. I think what happened -- from when we started this journey, what have happened here, of course, is all to disturb -- in the meantime, it's the older disturbances we have got from the pandemic, from the now the consequences of that and the raw materials and everything we have been through here now. So what we need to do and which we are doing now is to balance that again. And what we need to have going forward is that we get a more stable market as we're indicating here because the volatility up and down with the very short time horizons we have seen here, of course, is disturbing the trajectory here in the short term.

不，我想我的意思是，驅動程序是讓我們保持不變的 12%。我認為發生的事情——從我們開始這段旅程開始，當然，這裡發生的一切都令人不安——與此同時，這是我們從大流行中得到的更古老的干擾，從現在開始，它的後果和原材料和我們現在在這裡經歷的一切。因此，我們需要做的以及我們現在正在做的就是再次平衡這一點。我們需要的是，我們需要得到一個更穩定的市場，正如我們在這裡所指出的那樣，因為我們在這裡看到的非常短的時間範圍內的上下波動，當然，在短期內擾亂了這裡的軌跡學期。

So it's still very much around driving our efficiency and productivity in the company where we have the underlying strategic road maps that we have talked about and that is progressing well. We need to continue to get, I mean, the price adjustments in place here to cover then what I talked about the short-term fluctuations. But other than that, I think we have all the components here to get there, and that's why we feel comfortable to reiterate the targets here for this period we're talking about.

因此，在我們擁有我們已經討論過的基本戰略路線圖並且進展順利的公司中，這仍然很大程度上是圍繞提高我們的效率和生產力。我的意思是，我們需要繼續進行價格調整，以涵蓋我所說的短期波動。但除此之外，我認為我們已經具備了實現目標的所有要素，這就是為什麼我們願意在這裡重申我們正在談論的這一時期的目標。

Okay. Maybe if I could just squeeze one quick one. What euro rate are you assuming for the back half of the year?

好的。也許如果我能快速擠一個。你假設下半年的歐元匯率是多少？

Sorry, the?

對不起，？

The euro rate?

歐元匯率？

Euro rate.

歐元匯率。

At the end rate of June...

6月底的時候...

So about parity?

那麼平價呢？

Yes, one or something, yes. I don't have it in my head at the moment. But we can come back to you on that.

是的，一個或什麼，是的。此刻我的腦海裡沒有它。但我們可以就此問題與您聯繫。

Our next question comes from Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nordea 的 Agnieszka Vilela。

I have 2 questions, starting with your organic growth guidance. It seems like you base it on the LVP assumption of 2% to 5% growth for the year, yet IHS is at 5%. So if you could give us any reasons why you seem to be a bit more cautious here.

我有 2 個問題，從您的有機增長指南開始。看起來你是基於 LVP 假設今年增長 2% 到 5%，但 IHS 是 5%。因此，如果您能給我們任何理由，說明您在這裡似乎更加謹慎。

Yes. I think the cautious view here, if you call it that, is that we still see that there is a lot of uncertainty out there. I mean as we have indicated, things moving in the right direction. But we also see that we are not through when it comes to the semiconductors. We still have challenges in the logistical change around the world here. Pandemic is still here, plus that I think in Europe here, we are also facing a winter here with potentially challenging energy situations as well. So there is a lot of uncertainty out there that I think makes it prudent to have more cautious view on the LVP development there.

是的。我認為這裡的謹慎觀點，如果你這麼說的話，是我們仍然看到存在很多不確定性。我的意思是，正如我們所指出的，事情正朝著正確的方向發展。但我們也看到，在半導體方面，我們還沒有完成。我們在世界各地的後勤變革中仍然面臨挑戰。大流行仍然存在，而且我認為在歐洲，我們也面臨著一個冬天，能源形勢也可能具有挑戰性。因此，我認為那裡存在很多不確定性，因此對那裡的 LVP 發展持更謹慎的看法是謹慎的做法。

And maybe a follow-up on that. When you speak to your customers, do you feel that they are getting a bit more confident about the volumes when they place the call-offs for you?

也許會對此進行跟進。當您與客戶交談時，您是否覺得他們在為您下單時對交易量更有信心？

I think -- I mean, the short answer would probably be yes, on that question. But here, maybe you can see some reason for our cautiousness also is that we see that there has been a lot of -- more confident in the call off than what actually have come out. So that has been a big challenge for us the last couple of quarters here that what has been requested has not been picked up by the customer here.

我認為——我的意思是，在這個問題上，簡短的回答可能是肯定的。但是在這裡，也許你可以看到我們謹慎的一些原因，也是我們看到有很多 - 對取消比實際出現的更有信心。因此，在過去的幾個季度中，這對我們來說是一個巨大的挑戰，因為這裡的客戶沒有收到所要求的東西。

So there is, of course, a will and a wish from the OEM side here to get more volume through. And that, of course, is based on what we have talked about here that there is a strong order book, there is extremely low level of inventory, especially in the U.S., et cetera. But there is still disturbances in the industry value chain here that makes it difficult to get to the volumes that has been put into the systems there. So I would say the only thing that is holding back the volume right now in the short term, that is the availability of components in the whole industry, not Autoliv specific.

因此，這裡的 OEM 方面當然有意願和願望來獲得更多的銷量。當然，這是基於我們在這裡談到的，即有強大的訂單，庫存水平極低，尤其是在美國，等等。但是，這裡的行業價值鏈仍然存在干擾，這使得很難獲得已經投入到那裡系統中的數量。所以我想說，目前唯一在短期內阻礙銷量的因素是整個行業的組件可用性，而不是 Autoliv 特定的。

Perfect. And then the second question is on your cost alignment program. You haven't provided any kind of quantification for the scope. What you're doing there? Do you expect any savings coming from that? Do you expect any cost also to cover this program? Could you give us a bit more details on that?

完美的。然後第二個問題是關於您的成本調整計劃。您沒有為範圍提供任何類型的量化。你在那裡做什麼？您期望從中獲得任何節省嗎？您是否期望任何費用也涵蓋該計劃？你能告訴我們更多的細節嗎？

And I guess you're referring to the one we indicated here in June that we are taking additional steps to reduce cost. We are not expecting to see any meaningful onetime effects or cost restructuring charges to that at this point. So we have not quantified that for you for that reason. It is also a gradual implementation of it. And the main effect of those activities is really towards the end of the year and for 2023.

我猜你指的是我們在 6 月份在這裡指出的，我們正在採取額外措施來降低成本。我們預計此時不會看到任何有意義的一次性影響或成本重組費用。因此，出於這個原因，我們沒有為您量化。這也是它的逐步實施。這些活動的主要影響實際上是在年底和 2023 年。

But you don't provide any cost savings target for this program.

但是您沒有為此計劃提供任何成本節約目標。

No. No, it's a part of what we're doing here to secure our trajectory here towards the midterm target. So we haven't broken that out specifically. It's on top of everything else we do here.

不，不，這是我們在這裡所做的工作的一部分，以確保我們朝著中期目標邁進。所以我們還沒有具體說明這一點。它在我們在這裡所做的一切之上。

The next question comes from Philipp Konig from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Philipp Konig。

Yes. I just want to come back to the recoveries. It seems like you made some particularly strong progress in June, which we also see in your working capital. I was just wondering if that sort of run rate continues, is it fair to say that you might even be able to aim for the upper end of the 6% to 7% margin range in terms of what you're baking in for the second half of the year in terms of the recoveries?

是的。我只想回到康復中。看來您在 6 月份取得了一些特別強勁的進展，我們在您的營運資金中也看到了這一點。我只是想知道這種運行率是否會持續下去，可以公平地說，就第二次烘焙而言，您甚至可以瞄準 6% 到 7% 保證金範圍的上限半年的回收率？

And then my second question is just on the near-term volumes, sort of what have the first couple of weeks in July been like? Has the momentum continued from June, has been even better? Any color there would be appreciated.

然後我的第二個問題是關於近期的交易量，7 月份的前幾周是什麼樣的？勢頭是否從 6 月份開始持續，甚至更好？任何顏色都將不勝感激。

I don't think -- I can't give you any more details around the progression there. I think what we have said here is that we are making progress and are in line with what we have indicated before. And we have narrowed the range here to the 6% and 7% adjusted operating income. And I can't narrow it down even further for you there, unfortunately.

我不認為——我不能給你更多關於那裡進展的細節。我認為我們在這裡所說的是我們正在取得進展，並且與我們之前所表明的一致。我們已將此處的範圍縮小到 6% 和 7% 的調整後營業收入。不幸的是，我無法進一步縮小範圍。

When it comes to the momentum in the market, I think we can say here that it's holding up. And there's no question that there is an underlying demand and it's all about now securing in the whole industry the ability to secure components. And I would say there's a lot of uncertainty out there regarding that, and we just need to see how it comes through here. But there is not -- too early to say anything around that when it comes to the beginning of the quarter here.

當談到市場的勢頭時，我認為我們可以在這裡說它正在支撐。毫無疑問，存在潛在的需求，而這一切都與現在確保整個行業能夠保護組件的能力有關。我想說的是，這方面存在很多不確定性，我們只需要看看它是如何發生的。但是，當談到這裡的季度初時，現在說任何事情都還為時過早。

The next question comes from Vijay Rakesh from Mizuho Securities.

下一個問題來自瑞穗證券的 Vijay Rakesh。

Yes. I was just wondering, I think you made a comment on chip supply having improved. Just wondering where you had been seeing any constraints and where you're seeing some of the supply improving?

是的。我只是想知道，我認為您對芯片供應有所改善發表了評論。只是想知道您在哪裡看到了任何限制，以及您在哪裡看到了一些供應改善？

No. As I said, I mean, we see some improvements. And of course, we also hear from our customers here and that there are some improvements there. It's still very, let's call it, spotty here because it's not across all customers. There are some customers that are more confident than others in terms of securing semiconductors for their own production. Of course, the lockdowns in China created some bumps on the road here, also outside China when it comes to the semiconductor supply.

不，正如我所說，我的意思是，我們看到了一些改進。當然，我們也從這裡的客戶那裡聽到，那裡有一些改進。它仍然非常，讓我們稱之為，這裡參差不齊，因為它並不適用於所有客戶。在為自己的生產確保半導體方面，有些客戶比其他客戶更有信心。當然，在半導體供應方面，中國的封鎖給這裡帶來了一些障礙，在中國以外的地區也是如此。

And I think also we see that there is still these lower specs of vehicles here to not need as many semiconductors that you otherwise would. So of course, if the availability is improving here, I think the demand will also go up here. So that's why we are also cautious here that we are not out of the woods here yet when it comes to the semiconductors. But it's trending in the right direction. That's what we feel when we talk to our customers. Plus that, of course, our own semiconductor needs is under control there.

而且我認為我們也看到這裡仍然存在這些較低規格的車輛，不需要像其他情況下那樣多的半導體。所以當然，如果這裡的可用性正在改善，我認為這裡的需求也會上升。所以這就是為什麼我們在這裡也很謹慎，因為我們在半導體方面還沒有走出困境。但它正朝著正確的方向發展。這就是我們與客戶交談時的感受。另外，當然，我們自己的半導體需求在那裡得到控制。

Got it. And last question. I know a lot of questions on the pricing side. Is -- I mean, on the pricing, are you pegging it to a commodity index? Because it looks like the broader commodity index is starting to kind of soften a bit. I'm just wondering, is there like a -- do these price increases, are they like a 6-month horizon? Is there -- how are you -- if you can give some more color on using a broader index and what the time frame for the price increases are?

知道了。最後一個問題。我知道定價方面的很多問題。是 - 我的意思是，在定價方面，您是否將其與商品指數掛鉤？因為看起來更廣泛的商品指數開始有點軟化。我只是想知道，這些價格上漲是否像 6 個月一樣？有沒有 - 你好嗎 - 如果你可以在使用更廣泛的指數以及價格上漲的時間範圍內給出更多的顏色？

Yes. There's no straightforward answer to that question. It's a mix. Pretty much every OEM uses a different structure for these type of discussions. So it's -- some have steel indices based on different types of indices. Then you have also commodities that are not covered. Others do cover them. So it's a basket of arrangements that you then can choose to have with a certain way. So it's difficult to give a simple answer to that question. And as I mentioned before, the cadence of these adjustments are between quarterly and annual.

是的。這個問題沒有直接的答案。這是一個混合體。幾乎每個 OEM 都使用不同的結構進行此類討論。所以它 - 有些有基於不同類型指數的鋼鐵指數。然後，您還有未涵蓋的商品。其他人確實覆蓋了它們。所以這是一籃子安排，然後您可以選擇以某種方式進行。所以很難對這個問題給出一個簡單的答案。正如我之前提到的，這些調整的節奏介於季度和年度之間。

We can take one last question.

我們可以回答最後一個問題。

The last question comes from Erik Golrang from SEB.

最後一個問題來自 SEB 的 Erik Golrang。

Yes. I have one question, and I am returning to the raw material subject. Can I understand it correctly that you said that you were aiming for full compensation of raw material and logistics headwinds that were out of your control? And I mean if I just sum up the raw mat headwind you've had since the start of '21, that's in excess of $300 million. And now you've got the $30 million in compensation, and you expect the rest in the second half. Is that the right way to read it?

是的。我有一個問題，我回到原材料主題。我能否正確理解您說您的目標是全額補償您無法控制的原材料和物流逆風？我的意思是，如果我總結一下自 21 年初以來你遇到的原始墊子逆風，那將超過 3 億美元。現在你已經拿到了 3000 萬美元的賠償金，剩下的將在下半年支付。這是正確的閱讀方式嗎？

No. What we're talking about here and as I emphasized before here, our focus -- and I want to have discussion about retroactiveness and so on. Our focus here is to get full compensation when it comes to height. So when we're negotiating here now is for the cost that has hit us and restored that balance, so to speak, between our incoming costs and the price. So that is the focus.

不。我們在這裡談論的是，正如我之前在這裡強調的那樣，我們的重點——我想討論追溯性等等。我們的重點是在身高方面獲得全額補償。因此，當我們現在在這裡談判時，是為了打擊我們並恢復這種平衡的成本，可以說是我們的傳入成本和價格之間的平衡。所以這是重點。

And maybe to clarify, I mean, the $30 million that we spell out is only the recovery that we received that is related to -- prior to the second quarter. So these are retroactive adjustments going back then to January 1 that we're disclosing that are not related to the second quarter. The recoveries we got overall is higher than $30 million.

也許要澄清一下，我的意思是，我們列出的 3000 萬美元只是我們收到的與第二季度之前相關的複蘇。因此，這些是追溯調整，可追溯到 1 月 1 日，我們正在披露與第二季度無關的調整。我們獲得的總體賠償額超過 3000 萬美元。

Thank you. That was the last question. Now I'll turn the conference back to you for any closing comments.

謝謝你。那是最後一個問題。現在，我會將會議轉回給您，以徵求任何結束意見。

Thank you, Cindy. Before we end today's call, I would like to say that the recent developments in supply chains, customer production plans, raw material prices and our cost recovery discussions are encouraging, and we are well prepared for an improved market development. However, we are also making sure we are agile and prepared for more adverse market development should that be necessary. Autoliv continues to focus on our vision of saving more lives, which is our most important contribution to sustainable society. Our third quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, October 21, 2022. Thank you, everyone, for participating on today's call. We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv. Until next time, stay safe.

謝謝你，辛迪。在我們結束今天的電話會議之前，我想說的是，供應鏈、客戶生產計劃、原材料價格和我們成本回收討論的近期發展令人鼓舞，我們為改善市場發展做好了充分準備。但是，我們也確保我們是敏捷的，並在必要時為更不利的市場發展做好準備。奧托立夫繼續專注於我們拯救更多生命的願景，這是我們對可持續社會最重要的貢獻。我們的第三季度財報電話會議定於 2022 年 10 月 21 日星期五舉行。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們衷心感謝您對 Autoliv 的持續關注。直到下一次，保持安全。

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for attending. You may now disconnect your lines.

謝謝你。這確實結束了今天的電話會議。謝謝大家的出席。您現在可以斷開線路。