Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Q3 2022 Autoliv, Inc. Earnings Group Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today, I am pleased to present Anders Trapp, VP of Investor Relations; Mikael Bratt, CEO; and Fredrik Westin, Group CFO. I'll now hand the floor to our speakers. Please begin your meeting.

歡迎參加 2022 年第三季度 Autoliv, Inc. 收益小組電話會議。 （操作員須知）今天，我很高興向大家介紹投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp；邁克爾·布拉特，首席執行官；和集團首席財務官 Fredrik Westin。我現在請我們的發言人發言。請開始您的會議。

Thank you, Mark. Welcome, everyone, to our third quarter 2022 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin; and me Anders Trapp, VP, IR.

謝謝你，馬克。歡迎大家參加我們的 2022 年第三季度財報電話會議。在這次電話會議上，我們有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Mikael Bratt；和我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin；還有我，IR 副總裁 Anders Trapp。

During today's earnings call, Mikael and Fredrik will, among other things, provide an overview of the strong sales and margin recovery in the third quarter, give an update on the price negotiations, outline the expected sequential margin improvement in Q4 as well as provide an update on our general business and market conditions. We will then remain available to respond to your questions. And as usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com.

在今天的財報電話會議上，Mikael 和 Fredrik 將概述第三季度強勁的銷售和利潤率復甦，更新價格談判，概述第四季度預期的連續利潤率改善，並提供更新我們的一般業務和市場狀況。然後，我們將繼續回复您的問題。和往常一樣，這些幻燈片可在 autoliv.com 上找到。

Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference some non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly press release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC. Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3 p.m. Central European Time. So please follow a limit of 2 questions per person.

轉到下一張幻燈片。我們有安全港聲明，它是本演示文稿的一個組成部分，包括以下問答。在演示過程中，我們將參考一些非美國公認會計原則的措施。歷史美國 GAAP 與非美國 GAAP 措施的調節在我們在 autoliv.com 上提供的季度新聞稿和將提交給 SEC 的 10-Q 中披露。最後，我應該提一下，這次電話會議打算在下午 3 點結束。中歐時間。因此，請遵循每人 2 個問題的限制。

I now hand over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

我現在將交給我們的首席執行官 Mikael Bratt。

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. I'd like to recognize the entire team for delivering a strong quarter, which I believe reflects our strong execution culture. As the market leader, we are building resilience and strength in the turbulent times. Our actions initiated earlier in the year are creating both short-term and long-term improvements and enable us to build an even more competitive position despite the challenging macro environment.

謝謝你，安德斯。看下一張幻燈片。我想感謝整個團隊交付了一個強勁的季度，我相信這反映了我們強大的執行文化。作為市場領導者，我們正在動盪時期建立韌性和實力。我們在今年早些時候採取的行動正在創造短期和長期的改進，使我們能夠在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中建立更具競爭力的地位。

We continued to negotiate higher prices to compensate for inflationary pressure. We also achieved another strong outperformance versus LVP despite a negative regional mix. Our sales in the quarter reached over USD 2.3 billion, the highest so far for the third quarter for our current business structure. This is despite recessionary light vehicle sales volumes in Europe and 8% currency headwind.

我們繼續協商更高的價格以彌補通脹壓力。儘管存在負面的區域組合，但我們也取得了與 LVP 相比的另一個強勁表現。我們在本季度的銷售額達到了超過 23 億美元，在我們目前的業務結構中，這是第三季度迄今為止的最高水平。儘管歐洲的輕型汽車銷量出現衰退並且貨幣逆風為 8%，但情況仍然如此。

We also achieved a strong profit recovery, increasing adjusted operating margin to 7.5%. Our strong performance in the third quarter is especially encouraging considering the market conditions continued to be challenging, with almost 2 percentage points adverse currency effects as well as significant inflationary pressure and high customer call-off volatility.

我們還實現了強勁的利潤復甦，將調整後的營業利潤率提高到 7.5%。考慮到市場環境仍然充滿挑戰，我們在第三季度的強勁表現尤其令人鼓舞，不利的貨幣影響接近 2 個百分點，通貨膨脹壓力很大，客戶取消波動性很大。

We generated a strong operating cash flow. The leverage ratio improved to 1.6x. In the quarter, we paid $0.64 per share in dividends and repurchased and canceled 260,000 shares. Our Q3 performance enabled us to update our full year indication for the adjusted operating margin to the upper end of the indication. We expect continued sequential margin improvement in Q4 through price increases, cost reduction activities as well as a higher LVP and engineering income.

我們產生了強勁的經營現金流。槓桿率提升至 1.6 倍。本季度，我們支付了每股 0.64 美元的股息，並回購和註銷了 260,000 股。我們第三季度的表現使我們能夠將調整後營業利潤率的全年指標更新到指標的上限。我們預計第四季度的利潤率將通過價格上漲、成本降低活動以及更高的 LVP 和工程收入持續改善。

The Q3 performance and the expected Q4 development strengthens our confidence in our midterm targets. In addition, we expect that our balance sheet and positive cash flow trend will allow for higher shareholder returns.

第三季度的表現和預期的第四季度發展增強了我們對中期目標的信心。此外，我們預計我們的資產負債表和正現金流趨勢將允許更高的股東回報。

Looking now on an update of the inflation compensation negotiations on the next slide. To support a sustainable business model in an inflationary environment we continue to work closely with customers to secure price increases to compensate for inflation, volatile light vehicle production and supply chain disruptions. We have reached agreements in more than 90% of the raw material related price adjustment discussions that we initiated earlier.

現在看下一張幻燈片上通脹補償談判的最新情況。為了在通脹環境中支持可持續的商業模式，我們將繼續與客戶密切合作，以確保價格上漲，以彌補通脹、不穩定的輕型汽車生產和供應鏈中斷的影響。我們早前發起的原材料相關價格調整討論中，90%以上都已達成協議。

Price adjustment discussions with our customers for cost increases related to labor, logistics and utilities are progressing. We are also implementing greater pricing flexibility into new and running contracts with our customers to account for changing raw material costs. Now about half of our contracts contain raw material clauses. This is an increase from around 20% before we started the negotiations. The clauses should provide more stable and predictable earnings going forward as changes in costs should be more aligned with changes in price.

與我們的客戶就勞動力、物流和公用事業成本增加的價格調整討論正在進行中。我們還在與客戶簽訂的新合同和正在執行的合同中實施更大的定價靈活性，以應對不斷變化的原材料成本。現在我們大約一半的合同包含原材料條款。這比我們開始談判前的約 20% 有所增加。這些條款應提供更穩定和可預測的未來收益，因為成本變化應與價格變化更加一致。

Looking now on our cost control measures on the next slide. We continue with strict cost control measures, controlled hiring and footprint effectiveness. As a result of these activities, headcount increased only by 9% year-over-year, whereas sales grew organically by 32% during the same period. The increase also reflects preparations for the expected strong sales growth in the fourth quarter.

現在看看我們在下一張幻燈片上的成本控制措施。我們繼續採取嚴格的成本控制措施，控制招聘和足蹟有效性。由於這些活動，員工人數僅同比增長 9%，而同期銷售額有機增長了 32%。這一增長還反映了為第四季度預期的強勁銷售增長做準備。

Also, we continue to execute on our capital efficiency program to improve trade working capital. Considering the uncertainty of the market development, keeping a high degree of flexibility and agility is essential and allows us to be an even stronger company long term.

此外，我們繼續執行我們的資本效率計劃，以提高貿易營運資金。考慮到市場發展的不確定性，保持高度的靈活性和敏捷性至關重要，這使我們能夠長期成為一家更強大的公司。

Looking now on the financial overview on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales of $2.3 billion was 25% higher than in Q3 2021. Adjusted operating income, excluding costs for capacity alignments, increased from USD 103 million to USD 173 million. The adjusted operating margin was 7.5% in the quarter, around 2 percentage points higher than last year.

現在看下一張幻燈片的財務概覽。我們的合併淨銷售額為 23 億美元，比 2021 年第三季度增長 25%。調整後的營業收入（不包括產能調整成本）從 1.03 億美元增加到 1.73 億美元。本季度調整後的營業利潤率為 7.5%，比去年同期提高約 2 個百分點。

The higher operating margin was mainly a result of higher prices, operational leverage on higher volumes as well as cost saving activities. Operating cash flow was $232 million, which was USD 43 million higher than the same period last year, mainly due to improved working capital and higher net income.

較高的營業利潤率主要是由於較高的價格、較高產量的經營槓桿以及成本節約活動。經營現金流為 2.32 億美元，比去年同期增加 4300 萬美元，主要是由於營運資金改善和淨收入增加。

Looking now on our sales growth more in detail on the next slide. Although currency translation effects had a negative impact of 8%, the third quarter consolidated net sales increased by more than USD 450 million to USD 2.3 billion. Retroactive pricing contributed with approximately USD 13 million and price volume mix contributed with almost USD 600 million in the quarter. As a result, the organic sales grew by more than 32% in the third quarter compared to last year. Looking on the regional sales split. Asia accounted for 42% of sales in quarter, North America for 34% and Europe for 24%.

現在在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地查看我們的銷售增長。儘管貨幣換算效應產生了 8% 的負面影響，但第三季度合併淨銷售額增加了 4.5 億美元以上，達到 23 億美元。本季度追溯定價貢獻了約 1300 萬美元，價格組合貢獻了近 6 億美元。因此，與去年相比，第三季度的有機銷售額增長了 32% 以上。查看區域銷售拆分。亞洲佔本季度銷售額的 42%，北美佔 34%，歐洲佔 24%。

Looking to our organic sales growth per region on the next slide. Our organic sales in the quarter came in as we expected in the beginning of the quarter, but with a different regional mix with higher sales in China and Europe, offsetting lower-than-expected sales in Japan and Americas. According to S&P Global, light vehicle production increased by 29% year-over-year in the quarter. This was almost 7 percentage points better than expected at the beginning of the quarter. All of the higher-than-expected volumes came in China and rest of Asia, while volumes in higher content per vehicle markets, North America, Europe and Japan were lower than expected.

在下一張幻燈片中展望我們每個地區的有機銷售增長。我們在本季度的有機銷售額符合我們在本季度初的預期，但區域組合不同，中國和歐洲的銷售額較高，抵消了日本和美洲低於預期的銷售額。根據標準普爾全球的數據，本季度輕型汽車產量同比增長 29%。這比本季度初的預期高出近 7 個百分點。所有高於預期的銷量都來自中國和亞洲其他地區，而每輛汽車市場、北美、歐洲和日本的銷量均低於預期。

Despite the negative regional light vehicle production mix, we outperformed global light vehicle production by around 4 percentage points. Based on the latest light vehicle production numbers, we outperformed in Europe by 11 percentage points, in Americas by 7 percentage points and in Japan by 6 percentage points.

儘管區域輕型車生產組合為負，但我們的表現優於全球輕型車生產約 4 個百分點。根據最新的輕型汽車產量數據，我們在歐洲領先 11 個百分點，在美洲領先 7 個百分點，在日本領先 6 個百分點。

Sales in China outperformed light vehicle production despite the negative mix with manufacturers of low-end vehicles benefiting from more than -- from the latest tax incentives on EVs and cars with engine displacements of up to 2 liters. Supported by recent launches and a positive regional mix as well as further price increases, we see sales outperforming light vehicle production even more in Q4.

儘管低端汽車製造商受益於超過 2 升的電動汽車和發動機排量高達 2 升汽車的最新稅收優惠政策，但中國的銷量仍優於輕型汽車產量。在最近的發布和積極的區域組合以及進一步的價格上漲的支持下，我們認為第四季度的銷售表現更優於輕型汽車生產。

On the next slide, we see some key model launches from the third quarter. In the quarter, we had a high number of launches, especially in Europe and China. The models shown on this slide have an Autoliv content per vehicle from approximately USD 95 to more than USD 400. The long-term trend to higher CPV is supported by the introduction of front center airbags on 5 of these vehicles.

在下一張幻燈片中，我們看到了第三季度推出的一些關鍵車型。在本季度，我們推出了大量產品，尤其是在歐洲和中國。這張幻燈片上顯示的車型每輛車的奧托立夫含量從大約 95 美元到超過 400 美元不等。更高 CPV 的長期趨勢得到了其中 5 輛車的前部中央安全氣囊的支持。

I will now hand it over to our CFO, Fredrik Westin, who will talk about the financials on the next slide.

我現在將把它交給我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin，他將在下一張幻燈片中討論財務狀況。

Thank you, Mikael. This slide highlights our key figures for the third quarter of 2022 compared to the third quarter of 2021. Our net sales were $2.3 billion, this was 25% higher than Q3 '21 and 11% higher than Q2 this year.

謝謝你，米凱爾。這張幻燈片突出了我們與 2021 年第三季度相比的 2022 年第三季度的關鍵數據。我們的淨銷售額為 23 億美元，比 21 年第三季度高出 25%，比今年第二季度高出 11%。

Gross profit increased by 28% to $383 million while the gross margin increased to 16.7%. The gross margin increase was primarily driven by higher prices, partly offset by cost inflation, currencies and the volatile light vehicle production. In the quarter, we made $2 million in provisions for capacity alignment activities.

毛利潤增長 28% 至 3.83 億美元，而毛利率增長至 16.7%。毛利率增加主要是由於價格上漲，部分被成本通脹、貨幣和波動的輕型汽車生產所抵消。在本季度，我們為產能調整活動提供了 200 萬美元的準備金。

The adjusted operating income increased from $103 million to $173 million and the adjusted operating margin increased from 5.6% to 7.5%. The operating cash flow was $232 million, and I will provide further comments on our cash flow later in the presentation.

調整後的營業收入從 1.03 億美元增加到 1.73 億美元，調整後的營業利潤率從 5.6% 增加到 7.5%。運營現金流為 2.32 億美元，我將在演示文稿的後面對我們的現金流提供進一步的評論。

Earnings per share diluted increased by $0.53 where the main driver was $0.59 from higher adjusted operating income, partly mitigated by $0.06 from financial items and nonoperating items.

每股攤薄收益增加了 0.53 美元，其中主要驅動因素是調整後營業收入增加 0.59 美元，金融項目和非經營項目部分減少了 0.06 美元。

Our adjusted return on capital employed increased to 18% and the adjusted return on equity to 17%, up from 11% and 10%, respectively. We paid a dividend of $0.64 per share in the quarter same as in the previous quarter and repurchased around 260,000 shares for $20 million under our stock repurchase program.

我們調整後的資本回報率從 11% 和 10% 分別上升到 18% 和調整後的股本回報率從 10% 上升到 17%。我們在本季度支付了與上一季度相同的每股 0.64 美元的股息，並根據我們的股票回購計劃以 2,000 萬美元的價格回購了約 260,000 股股票。

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the third quarter of 2022, our adjusted operating income of $173 million was $70 million higher than the same quarter last year. The impact of raw material price changes was a negative $96 million in the quarter year-on-year. FX impacted the operating profit negatively by $41 million or almost 2 percentage points. This was a result of translation effects due to the stronger U.S. dollar and transaction effects, mainly relating to the strong U.S. dollar versus the Japanese yen, Korean won and the euro.

現在看下一張幻燈片上調整後的營業收入橋。 2022年第三季度，我們調整後的營業收入為1.73億美元，比去年同期高出7,000萬美元。本季度原材料價格變動的影響為負 9600 萬美元。外匯對營業利潤產生了 4100 萬美元或近 2 個百分點的負面影響。這是由於美元走強和交易效應造成的換算效應，主要與美元兌日元、韓元和歐元走強有關。

SG&A and RD&E net combined was $13 million higher due to higher costs for IT and application engineering as well as timing of engineering income. The profit increase was driven by improved pricing, high volumes as well as our strategic initiatives, partly offset by the significant headwinds from raw materials, foreign exchange, call-off volatility and general cost inflation. As a result, the leverage on the higher sales, excluding currency effects, was within the range of the normal interval of 20% to 30% despite the substantial headwind from raw materials.

由於 IT 和應用工程的成本增加以及工程收入的時間安排，SG&A 和 RD&E 的淨額合計增加了 1300 萬美元。利潤增長是由改進的定價、高產量以及我們的戰略舉措推動的，部分被原材料、外匯、取消波動和一般成本通脹的重大不利因素所抵消。因此，儘管存在來自原材料的巨大阻力，但不包括貨幣影響，較高銷售額的槓桿率仍處於 20% 至 30% 的正常區間範圍內。

Looking now on the cash flow performance on to the next slide. For the third quarter of 2022, operating cash flow increased by $43 million to $232 million compared to last year, mainly due to strong performance in working capital and the higher net income. During the quarter, trade working capital improved by $65 million despite the steep ramp-up in sales. The improved trade working capital was a result of improved payables in part due to our capital efficiency program.

現在看下一張幻燈片的現金流表現。 2022 年第三季度，營運現金流較去年增加 4300 萬美元至 2.32 億美元，主要是由於營運資本表現強勁和淨收入增加。儘管銷售額急劇上升，但本季度的貿易營運資金增加了 6500 萬美元。貿易營運資金的改善部分是由於我們的資本效率計劃導致應付賬款改善的結果。

In the quarter, the volatile light vehicle production and logistics challenges continued, and it drove inefficiencies in inventories. The inefficiency in inventory continued to be in excess of $100 million at the end of the quarter. Our ambition is to eliminate these inefficiencies as soon as possible, which does require further stabilization of the supply chain and call-off patterns from our customers.

本季度，不穩定的輕型汽車生產和物流挑戰仍在繼續，導致庫存效率低下。到本季度末，庫存的低效率繼續超過 1 億美元。我們的目標是盡快消除這些低效率，這確實需要進一步穩定供應鍊和客戶的取消模式。

For the third quarter, capital expenditures net increased by 47% to $164 million. In relation to sales, it was 7.1% versus 6.0% a year earlier. The higher level, to some extent, reflects a temporary catch-up of investments that were delayed during the pandemic. It is also related to the ongoing footprint activities and capacity expansion for growth, especially in China.

第三季度，資本支出淨額增長 47% 至 1.64 億美元。就銷售額而言，為 7.1%，而一年前為 6.0%。較高的水平在一定程度上反映了在大流行期間延遲的投資的暫時追趕。它還與正在進行的足跡活動和增長能力擴張有關，尤其是在中國。

For the third quarter of 2022, free cash flow was $68 million, $9 million lower than a year earlier, driven by the higher capital expenditures. The cash conversion over the last 12 months was around 25%. In the quarter, we paid $56 million in dividends and again, repurchased shares for $20 million.

受資本支出增加的推動，2022 年第三季度的自由現金流為 6800 萬美元，比去年同期減少 900 萬美元。過去 12 個月的現金轉換率約為 25%。在本季度，我們支付了 5600 萬美元的股息，並再次以 2000 萬美元的價格回購了股票。

In the fourth quarter of 2022, the timing of payment of customer compensations and seasonality of engineering income are expected to support a positive cash flow development.

在 2022 年第四季度，客戶補償金的支付時間和工程收入的季節性預計將支持正現金流發展。

Now looking on our shareholder returns on the next slide. Autoliv has shown in the past several years its ability to generate a solid cash flow in a difficult market environment with COVID lockdowns, the war in Ukraine, industry supply chain challenges and substantial decline in light vehicle production. We have historically used both dividend payments and share repurchases to create shareholder value. Historically, the dividend has usually represented a yield of approximately 2% to 3% in relation to the average share price.

現在在下一張幻燈片上查看我們的股東回報。奧托立夫在過去幾年中展示了其在艱難的市場環境中產生穩定現金流的能力，其中包括 COVID 封鎖、烏克蘭戰爭、行業供應鏈挑戰和輕型汽車產量大幅下降。我們歷來使用股息支付和股票回購來創造股東價值。從歷史上看，股息相對於平均股價的收益率通常約為 2% 至 3%。

Since beginning of 2019, we have reduced the net debt significantly as well as returned $700 million directly to shareholders. This includes stock buybacks of around $60 million as part of the stock repurchase program that we announced at our Capital Markets Day in 2021. We expect that our balance sheet and positive cash flow trend will allow for increasing shareholder returns.

自 2019 年初以來，我們大幅減少了淨債務，並直接向股東返還了 7 億美元。這包括作為我們在 2021 年資本市場日宣布的股票回購計劃的一部分，回購約 6000 萬美元的股票。我們預計，我們的資產負債表和正現金流趨勢將允許增加股東回報。

Now looking on to the next slide. The leverage ratio at the end of September 2022 was 1.6x, this was a reduction from the 1.7x in the previous quarter as our 12-months trailing adjusted EBITDA increased by $58 million, and our net debt decreased by $36 million.

現在看下一張幻燈片。 2022 年 9 月末的槓桿率為 1.6 倍，與上一季度的 1.7 倍相比有所下降，因為我們 12 個月的追踪調整後 EBITDA 增加了 5800 萬美元，我們的淨債務減少了 3600 萬美元。

Looking at the liquidity position, we go to the next slide. At the end of the quarter, we had a significant liquidity cushion of approximately $1.6 billion in cash and unutilized committed credit facilities. Our unutilized $1.1 billion revolving credit facility is with 11 major banks. This was refinanced in May of this year and matures in 2027 with an extension option to 2029. To minimize refinancing risks, we have diversified our long-term funding sources, and we also have a maturity profile that is well spread over the coming years. None of the credit facilities are subject to financial covenants.

查看流動性頭寸，我們轉到下一張幻燈片。在本季度末，我們擁有大約 16 億美元的現金和未使用的承諾信貸額度的大量流動性緩衝。我們未使用的 11 億美元循環信貸額度與 11 家主要銀行合作。該項目於今年 5 月進行了再融資，並於 2027 年到期，並可選擇延期至 2029 年。為了最大限度地降低再融資風險，我們多元化了我們的長期資金來源，而且我們的到期情況也很好地分佈在未來幾年。概無信貸融通受財務契約規限。

Now looking at our energy usage on to the next slide. We are continuously monitoring the development of the energy markets, and we have taken actions to secure supply and to lock in prices. The energy issue is mainly a European challenge. The cost for the energy used in our facilities in 2021 for the company overall corresponded to approximately 1% of sales. Of our total energy use, 66% was purchased electricity and 27% came from natural gas.

現在在下一張幻燈片上查看我們的能源使用情況。我們不斷監測能源市場的發展，並採取行動確保供應並鎖定價格。能源問題主要是歐洲的挑戰。 2021 年，我們設施中使用的能源成本對公司整體而言約佔銷售額的 1%。在我們的總能源使用中，66% 是購買的電力，27% 來自天然氣。

Autoliv does not generally use gas for its manufacturing processes, it is mainly used for heating at some of our facilities. Our main concern at this stage is the potential impact that a shortage of gas or electricity might have on the industry supply chain, especially in Europe. Currently, we do see a slight easing of prices in Europe due to the steady inflow of gas, mainly LNG and recent decisions to activate nuclear power plants again.

奧托立夫在其製造過程中通常不使用天然氣，它主要用於我們一些設施的供暖。我們現階段主要關注的是天然氣或電力短缺可能對行業供應鏈產生的潛在影響，尤其是在歐洲。目前，由於天然氣（主要是液化天然氣）的穩定流入以及最近再次啟動核電站的決定，我們確實看到歐洲的價格略有下降。

From the remaining of 2022, energy prices are locked in. Contract negotiations for 2023 are completed in all regions, except for Europe. In Europe, we have locked in most of the prices for the first half of 2023. Several of them are new green energy contracts. We are still negotiating in a few countries for the second half of the year.

從 2022 年剩餘時間開始，能源價格被鎖定。除歐洲外，所有地區的 2023 年合同談判均已完成。在歐洲，我們鎖定了 2023 年上半年的大部分價格。其中一些是新的綠色能源合同。今年下半年，我們仍在幾個國家進行談判。

I now hand it back to you, Mikael.

我現在把它還給你，米凱爾。

Thank you, Fredrik. Looking now at the LVP development on the next slide. Part of the auto industry continues to operate at or near recessionary levels impacted by supply chain challenges. For example, due to lack of new vehicles, European registrations year-to-date is approximately 30% lower than for the same period in 2009 during the financial crisis.

謝謝你，弗雷德里克。現在看下一張幻燈片上的 LVP 開發。受供應鏈挑戰影響，部分汽車行業繼續處於或接近衰退水平。例如，由於缺乏新車，今年迄今為止歐洲的註冊量比金融危機期間的 2009 年同期低了約 30%。

For the fourth quarter of 2022, global light vehicle production is expected to grow by 3% compared to the same period in 2021 according to S&P Global. Sequentially, LVP is expected to improve by 4% compared to 43% as the availability of automotive semiconductors is expected to improve, although not as much as previously anticipated.

根據標準普爾全球的數據，到 2022 年第四季度，全球輕型汽車產量預計將比 2021 年同期增長 3%。隨後，LVP 預計將提高 4%，而汽車半導體的可用性預計將提高 43%，儘管沒有之前預期的那麼多。

In North America and Europe, the near-term production forecast continues to be limited by automakers ability to produce, not by demand. In China, light vehicle production is supported by robust EV sales and the effects from tax incentives on certain new vehicles. According to S&P Global, full year global 2022 light vehicle production is forecasted at 79 million units, representing year-over-year growth of 6.8%.

在北美和歐洲，近期產量預測繼續受限於汽車製造商的生產能力，而不是需求。在中國，輕型汽車的生產受到強勁的電動汽車銷售和某些新車稅收優惠的影響。根據 S&P Global 的數據，預計 2022 年全球輕型汽車產量為 7900 萬輛，同比增長 6.8%。

Now looking on the Q4 business outlook on the next slide. As illustrated by this chart, we have been able to gradually improve the adjusted operating margin from 3.2% in the first quarter to 7.5% in the third quarter of 2022. This is despite continued headwinds from raw materials and other inflationary costs. The chart also shows the substantial year-over-year improvements in Q4, that is implied by our full year indication. The main reasons for a sequential improvement are the price increases and higher volumes as well as our strong focus on continuous improvements throughout the organization and our strategic road map initiatives.

現在看下一張幻燈片上的第四季度業務前景。如圖所示，我們已經能夠將調整後的營業利潤率從第一季度的 3.2% 逐步提高到 2022 年第三季度的 7.5%。儘管原材料和其他通脹成本持續存在不利因素。該圖表還顯示了第四季度的同比大幅改善，這是我們的全年指標所暗示的。連續改進的主要原因是價格上漲和銷量增加，以及我們對整個組織的持續改進和我們的戰略路線圖計劃的強烈關注。

As implied by our full year indication, we expect the sequential margin improvement trend to continue in Q4. In addition to higher prices, continued volume recovery and cost reduction initiatives, we expect positive seasonal effects from engineering income. Although uncertainties continue to affect the industry volumes, we expect to significantly outperform light vehicle production in Q4.

正如我們的全年指標所暗示的那樣，我們預計第四季度利潤率的連續改善趨勢將繼續。除了更高的價格、持續的產量恢復和降低成本的舉措外，我們預計工程收入會產生積極的季節性影響。儘管不確定性繼續影響行業產量，但我們預計第四季度的輕型汽車產量將顯著超過。

To put things in context, this year has been dramatic, especially in Europe. The year started with light vehicle production expected to grow by 17% in Europe, while now 9 months later, it is expected to decline by 2%. Additionally, we see -- we were globally affected by volatile light vehicle production with late changes to call-offs, the war in Ukraine and a challenging supply chain, which created disruptions and substantial cost increases.

綜上所述，今年是戲劇性的一年，尤其是在歐洲。今年年初，歐洲的輕型汽車產量預計將增長 17%，而現在 9 個月後，預計將下降 2%。此外，我們看到——我們在全球範圍內受到不穩定的輕型汽車生產的影響，包括後期變更、烏克蘭戰爭和具有挑戰性的供應鏈，這造成了中斷和成本大幅增加。

While we continue to challenge ourselves to further improve, I am pleased that our performance in such a dramatic environment enable us to guide towards the upper end of the adjusted operating margin range.

雖然我們繼續挑戰自己以進一步改善，但我很高興我們在如此戲劇性的環境中的表現使我們能夠引導調整後的營業利潤率範圍的上限。

Looking at the updated full year 2022 indications on the next slide. Our full year 2022 indications exclude costs and gains from capacity alignments, antitrust-related matters and other discrete items. We are adjusting our full year indication for adjusting operating margin to the upper end of the indication range of 6% to 7%, reflecting our Q3 performance and the shorter time span remaining of the year.

查看下一張幻燈片上更新的 2022 年全年指標。我們的 2022 年全年指標不包括產能調整、反壟斷相關事項和其他離散項目的成本和收益。我們正在調整全年指標，將營業利潤率調整至指標範圍的上限 6% 至 7%，以反映我們第三季度的表現和今年剩餘的較短時間跨度。

The updated indications assume that full year 2022 global light vehicle production will grow around 6% and that we achieve our targeted cost compensations plus some level of market stabilization. We expect sales to increase organically by around 15%. Currency translation effects on sales are assumed to be around a negative 6%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD 700 million to USD 750 million.

更新後的跡象假設 2022 年全年全球輕型汽車產量將增長 6% 左右，並且我們實現了目標成本補償以及一定程度的市場穩定。我們預計銷售額將有機增長約 15%。假設貨幣換算對銷售額的影響約為負 6%。經營現金流預計在 7 億美元至 7.5 億美元左右。

Turning to the next slide. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions. I will now turn it back to Mark.

轉到下一張幻燈片。我們對今天的財報電話會議的正式評論到此結束，我們想打開電話提問。我現在將它轉回給馬克。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Mattias Holmberg of DNB.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 DNB 的 Mattias Holmberg。

Two questions from me. I really appreciate the details you gave on the new pricing agreements and this might be a dumb question. But to make it really clear, let's say you have a scenario where steel prices fall or rise by X percent. Can you sort of walk us through the difference of how your selling prices would change in the contracts where you now do you have these raw material clauses versus the ones where you do not?

我的兩個問題。我非常感謝您提供的有關新定價協議的詳細信息，這可能是一個愚蠢的問題。但為了明確起見，假設您有一個鋼鐵價格下跌或上漲 X% 的情景。您能否向我們介紹一下您現在擁有這些原材料條款的合同與您沒有這些原材料條款的合同中您的銷售價格將如何變化的差異？

And my second question is on net working capital. In relation to the inefficiencies in inventories of excess of $100 million, how does this relate to the $800 million, I think you mentioned the capital efficiency program that you talked about at the Capital Markets Day last year and how far you have progressed here?

我的第二個問題是關於淨營運資本。關於超過 1 億美元的庫存效率低下，這與 8 億美元有什麼關係，我想你提到了你在去年資本市場日談到的資本效率計劃，你在這裡取得了多大的進步？

Thank you for your question, sir. Let me start with the pricing question there. What we're stating here is that we have come through 90% of the contracts to be negotiated around the raw material. And in those, we have -- in those negotiations, we have increased what we then call compensation clauses for the future here and connecting that to the developments of raw material, so we have a better balance.

謝謝你的問題，先生。讓我從那裡的定價問題開始。我們在這裡要說明的是，我們已經完成了 90% 的圍繞原材料進行談判的合同。在那些談判中，我們增加了我們所謂的未來補償條款，並將其與原材料的發展聯繫起來，因此我們有更好的平衡。

It's difficult, and I can't give you a very detailed breakdown on that because each agreement, you could say, has its unique details. And what we are focusing here, of course, is to make sure that we have a balance between our supplier base and our customer base and the respective raw materials here. But we have a better position today than what we had in the beginning of the year in relation to that. But I can't unfortunately give you more details than that.

這很困難，我不能給你一個非常詳細的細分，因為你可以說每個協議都有其獨特的細節。當然，我們在這里關注的重點是確保我們的供應商群和客戶群以及這裡的各自原材料之間取得平衡。但在這方面，我們今天的處境比年初時要好。但不幸的是，我不能給你更多的細節。

And when it comes to the net working capital, I'll ask Fredrik to take that.

當談到淨營運資本時，我會請 Fredrik 接受。

Yes. So on the $800 million, we did connect that also with the midterm targets, so the time line 2024. I think on the -- we can also see that from the payable side, we are progressing very well. So I would even say we are ahead of target there, if you look at timing wise. On the inventory side, we have the right initiatives in place. But unfortunately, the effects are not where we want them to be because of the -- both the volatility on the supplier side, but also the call-off patterns on our customer side, meaning that we cannot get the inventory out that our setups would enable us to do because we have to operate at higher safety stock levels.

是的。因此，在 8 億美元上，我們確實將其與中期目標聯繫起來，即 2024 年的時間線。我認為在 - 我們也可以從應付方面看到，我們進展得非常好。所以我什至會說，如果你從時機上看，我們已經領先了目標。在庫存方面，我們採取了正確的舉措。但不幸的是，影響不是我們想要的，因為供應商方面的波動性，以及我們客戶方面的取消模式，這意味著我們無法像我們的設置那樣將庫存拿出來使我們能夠做到，因為我們必須在更高的安全庫存水平下運營。

But should the volatility come down, then we would expect that this allows us to operate at a better efficiency level than what we have right now. So I would say from an initiatives point of view, it's on track. But unfortunately, from the results point of view, it is somewhat delayed because of the current market environment.

但如果波動性下降，那麼我們預計這將使我們能夠以比現在更好的效率水平運營。所以我想說，從倡議的角度來看，它正在走上正軌。但遺憾的是，從結果來看，由於目前的市場環境，它有些延遲。

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Langan at Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

As we're looking at Q4, and I think your guidance implies something close to a 10% if you sort of go to the midpoint in Q4. Is there anything -- I think you highlighted some seasonality. Is there any retroactive pricing help there? And anything that would prevent us from taking that in any material way and not annualizing that as per our margin for 2023?

當我們在看第四季度時，我認為如果你在第四季度達到中點，你的指導意味著接近 10%。有什麼 - 我認為你強調了一些季節性。那裡有任何追溯定價幫助嗎？有什麼會阻止我們以任何實質性的方式接受它，而不是按照我們 2023 年的利潤將其年度化？

I mean you saw already now in the third quarter that the retroactive part on the pricing negotiations was already smaller than in the second quarter. And I would expect that this -- that the fourth quarter would be even smaller than the third quarter. So it's not a matter of say, higher retroactivity or something that then increases the margin sequentially. It is the slightly higher volumes that we expect for the fourth quarter versus the third, and that's particularly in Europe and Japan. It is a further improvement of the price position and then the seasonality on the higher engineering income, which is a typical pattern for our company, that are the main drivers for the fourth quarter.

我的意思是你現在已經在第三季度看到定價談判的追溯部分已經小於第二季度了。我預計第四季度會比第三季度更小。因此，這不是說更高的追溯性或隨後會依次增加利潤的問題。與第三季度相比，我們預計第四季度的銷量會略高，尤其是在歐洲和日本。這是價格地位的進一步改善，然後是較高的工程收入的季節性，這是我們公司的典型模式，是第四季度的主要驅動力。

And so as we're thinking about, let's say, productions flat in 2023, I mean what are the other sort of key pieces we should be thinking about of how your margins should trend because obviously, it's been on a pretty great trajectory so far sequentially. You have continue pricing help, so that should be more helped next year. It looks like in the walk, the inflationary headwinds aren't what they were at the beginning of the year, so do they actually become tailwinds next year in a restructuring production volatility? There seems like a lot of tailwinds, any way to maybe frame some of those issues if say, next year is sort of flat but steady production?

因此，當我們正在考慮，比如說，2023 年的產量持平時，我的意思是，我們應該考慮的其他關鍵部分是什麼？依次。你有繼續定價幫助，所以明年應該會有更多幫助。看起來，通脹逆風不像年初那樣，那麼它們是否真的會成為明年重組生產波動的順風？似乎有很多順風，如果說明年是平穩但穩定的生產，有什麼辦法可以解決其中的一些問題？

I think when it comes to 2023, we will come back with more commentary around the progression there as we get to the Q4 presentation there, as we usually do. So it's too early to comment that. But I think what we're showing here in the quarter is really that we are really focusing on, first of all, the price discussions, but our job internally here is really to continue to work with our cost base and drive the efficiencies here and we have talked on the basis here, which is really our strategic road map to drive efficiency across the whole value chain and the additional cost restructuring -- cost focus that we announced earlier in the spring here.

我認為，當談到 2023 年時，我們會像往常一樣，在進行第四季度演示時，就那裡的進展發表更多評論。所以現在評論還為時過早。但我認為我們在本季度展示的確實是我們真正關注的是，首先是價格討論，但我們在內部的工作是繼續與我們的成本基礎合作並提高這裡的效率我們在這裡討論了基礎，這實際上是我們提高整個價值鏈效率和額外成本重組的戰略路線圖——我們在春季早些時候在這裡宣布的成本重點。

But of course, I mean, there is still a lot of uncertainty out there as we have alluded to here also in the Q3 presentation here that we don't have behind us yet, and we have talked about the volatility, labor challenges and component challenges, et cetera. So I think we will have to come back and give you more details there when the time comes here in the beginning of next year.

但是，當然，我的意思是，仍然存在很多不確定性，正如我們在第三季度演示文稿中提到的那樣，我們還沒有落後，我們已經談到了波動性、勞動力挑戰和組成部分挑戰等等。因此，我認為我們將不得不在明年年初的時候回來並在那裡向您提供更多詳細信息。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris McNally at Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Chris McNally。

Appreciate it team. Maybe if we can focus on FX headwinds. Particularly, it looks like you have in the short term a transactional headwind from the Japanese yen in terms of exporting inflation from the U.S. Typically, FX has kind of washed out after you. But obviously, it's extreme moves in the currencies. Could you just give us an idea, is this something that you can kind of work around from global supply? Or should we sort of think this is going to be a headwind as long as sort of the FX is going against you in the short term?

欣賞它的團隊。也許我們可以專注於外匯逆風。特別是，在從美國出口通脹方面，您在短期內似乎遇到了日元的交易逆風。通常，外彙在您之後已經被淘汰了。但顯然，這是貨幣的極端波動。您能否給我們一個想法，您可以通過全球供應來解決這個問題嗎？或者我們應該認為這將是一個逆風，只要某種外彙在短期內對你不利？

Yes. I mean as we say, we have a total currency headwind of $42 million in the quarter. Around about $25 million of that is from transactional effects. And as you said that the main reasons are the Japanese yen, which has weakened round about 30% year-over-year against the dollar. But also, as I mentioned, the won and -- the Korean won and the euro.

是的。我的意思是，正如我們所說，我們本季度的總貨幣逆風為 4200 萬美元。其中約 2500 萬美元來自交易影響。正如你所說，主要原因是日元兌美元同比下跌約 30%。而且，正如我提到的，韓元和- 韓元和歐元。

We do have -- especially in Asia, we do have FX clauses with a number of customers. So that should compensate for some of these developments. But should the FX rates stay at where they are right now, we would also expect a negative impact here in the fourth quarter. And then we would look into more longer-term solutions should the rates maintain at this level.

我們確實有——尤其是在亞洲，我們確實有許多客戶的外匯條款。因此，這應該可以彌補其中的一些發展。但如果外匯匯率保持在目前的水平，我們預計第四季度也會產生負面影響。如果利率維持在這個水平，我們將研究更長期的解決方案。

So there is FX clauses for some of the aging contracts. But like anything, there's probably a delay and there's probably some gap. So again, issue in Q4 is a headwind, but there may be some recoveries that can -- if I think about 2023?

因此，一些老化合同有外匯條款。但就像任何事情一樣，可能會有延遲並且可能存在一些差距。再說一遍，第四季度的問題是逆風，但可能會有一些復甦——如果我考慮到 2023 年？

Yes, correct.

是，對的。

Perfect. And then just always to revisit, your 12% medium-term margin target still looks like it holds from -- once production normalizes, whatever that is, $89 million plus. I think the raw materials, you've done a great job of price versus raw. So that seems like it's also another check the box. Maybe this FX is a little bit of a headwind, but I just wanted to always confirm that the 12% looks on track once we get production normalizing again?

完美的。然後總是重新審視，你的 12% 的中期利潤率目標看起來仍然是可行的——一旦生產正常化，無論如何，8900 萬美元以上。我認為原材料，你在價格與原材料方面做得很好。所以這似乎也是另一個複選框。也許這個 FX 有點逆風，但我只是想始終確認，一旦我們再次使生產正常化，這 12% 看起來是否正常？

Yes. I think we're stating here in the Q3 report that this quarter is important stepping stone towards our midterm targets here and the framework around 12% that we have announced at least 85 million vehicle production level and that we have a net effect of raw material prices at 2021 year's level is still valid, yes, absolutely.

是的。我認為我們在第三季度報告中指出，本季度是我們實現中期目標的重要墊腳石，以及我們已宣布至少 8500 萬輛汽車生產水平的 12% 左右的框架，並且我們對原材料有淨影響2021 年水平的價格仍然有效，是的，絕對有效。

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak at RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Joseph Spak。

So I totally appreciate that you sort of want to punt on '23 until we get to next quarter because there's still some moving pieces. But as sort of mentioned earlier, right, the implied sort of fourth quarter margins are close to 10%. Fourth quarter, I know typically has that like 100 to 150 basis points from the RD&E income. So if we factor that in and all the other actions you've taken, is something around 9% the right base we should think about? And then we need to sort of consider all those other uncertainties on pricing, volume, commodities, FX, et cetera. Is that how we should start thinking about it?

所以我非常感謝你想在 23 年踢球，直到我們進入下個季度，因為仍然有一些移動的部分。但正如前面提到的，對，第四季度的隱含利潤率接近 10%。第四季度，我知道通常會從 RD&E 收入中獲得 100 到 150 個基點。因此，如果我們考慮到這一點以及您採取的所有其他行動，我們應該考慮 9% 左右的正確基數嗎？然後我們需要考慮定價、數量、商品、外匯等方面的所有其他不確定性。這就是我們應該開始思考的方式嗎？

I'm sorry. I think my answer has to be the same here as before here. We can't really give you any comments around '23 until we get there. But of course, as you said yourself here, it's a lot of moving pieces here in the external environment that also makes it difficult here now to draw to big conclusions.

對不起。我想我的答案在這裡必須和以前一樣。在我們到達那里之前，我們真的不能在 23 年左右給你任何評論。但是，當然，正如您在這裡所說的那樣，外部環境中有很多動人的部分，這也使得現在很難得出重大結論。

But what I can say is that, I mean, I feel comfortable with what we can control that our team is doing that well and that we are moving forward in the right direction here. And as I said, Q3 is an important stepping stone on that directional movement here, and we will come back with more detail later.

但我能說的是，我的意思是，我對我們可以控制的事情感到滿意，我們的團隊做得很好，並且我們正在朝著正確的方向前進。正如我所說，第三季度是這裡定向運動的重要墊腳石，我們稍後會回來提供更多細節。

Maybe to simplify the question then like, is that right that, that fourth quarter has about that 100 to 150 basis points RD&E benefit?

也許為了簡化問題，第四季度的 RD&E 收益大約是 100 到 150 個基點，對嗎？

Yes. It sounds about right.

是的。聽起來差不多。

Okay. The second question then. So you mentioned the 5 percentage point hit from raw materials in '22. Can you -- like pro forma for all the way, all the new contracts are written, what do you think that would have been in '22?

好的。那麼第二個問題。所以你提到了 22 年原材料的 5 個百分點。你能 - 就像備考一樣，所有的新合同都寫好了，你認為在 22 年會是什麼？

I don't understand the question.

我不明白這個問題。

So you're expecting a 5 percentage point hit from raw materials in '22, right? But you've -- through the year, you've formed new contracts that can compensate you for raw materials. So if those had been in place starting on Jan 1, what do you think that margin hit would have been for the year?

因此，您預計 22 年原材料將受到 5 個百分點的打擊，對嗎？但是你已經 - 通過這一年，你已經形成了可以補償你原材料的新合同。因此，如果這些措施從 1 月 1 日開始實施，您認為今年的利潤率會是多少？

Let me try to answer it this way. I mean we have, as we said here, achieved more than 90 -- or settled more than 90% of the negotiations related to raw materials, and we have done that at a level that is satisfactory for us to offset the raw material headwinds that we have experienced. So with that, we are where we think we should be when it comes to the raw material compensation, yes, at the moment.

讓我試著這樣回答。我的意思是，正如我們在此所說，我們已經完成了 90 多個 - 或解決了超過 90% 的與原材料有關的談判，而且我們已經做到了令人滿意的水平，以抵消原材料不利因素我們經歷過。因此，在原材料補償方面，是的，目前，我們認為我們應該做到這一點。

Okay. So it would have been arguably somewhat negligible. Obviously, there's other inflationary pressure, but strictly on the raw materials, it would have been pretty minor headwind?

好的。因此，可以說它可以忽略不計。顯然，還有其他通脹壓力，但嚴格來說，就原材料而言，這會是很小的逆風嗎？

Had we had this from the beginning, yes.

如果我們從一開始就有這個，是的。

Our next question comes from the line of Agnieszka Vilela at Nordea.

我們的下一個問題來自 Nordea 的 Agnieszka Vilela。

Perfect. I have 2 questions, and I will ask them one by one. So Mikael and Fredrik, you said that the main reason for the margin improvement in Q3 were the price increases and higher volumes. Yet when I look at the margin development in the quarter sequentially or year-on-year, I come to the conclusion that much of this improvement was driven by OpEx cost such as R&D and SG&A and not that much by the improvement in gross margin. And I would expect that the pricing and volumes would translate more into the strength in the gross margin. So I would just appreciate your comments on that and what we should expect going forward.

完美的。我有2個問題，我會一一問。所以 Mikael 和 Fredrik，你說第三季度利潤率提高的主要原因是價格上漲和銷量增加。然而，當我按季度或同比查看本季度的利潤率發展時，我得出的結論是，這種改善主要是由研發和 SG&A 等運營支出成本推動的，而不是毛利率的改善。我預計定價和銷量將更多地轉化為毛利率的優勢。因此，我非常感謝您對此的評論以及我們對未來的期望。

Yes, sure. First of all, I mean, what we're seeing is that we have now -- see the balance in place related to raw materials. When it comes to the other inflationary pressures on labor, logistics, freight -- sorry, and utilities that is -- we have not come as far in those negotiations. So that is one of the reasons why you don't see the full effect on the price negotiations on the gross margin line because there's still some outstanding work to be done on the other 3 components.

是的，當然。首先，我的意思是，我們現在看到的是——看到與原材料相關的平衡。當談到勞動力、物流、貨運（對不起，還有公用事業）的其他通脹壓力時，我們在這些談判中還沒有走得那麼遠。因此，這就是您看不到對毛利率線的價格談判產生全面影響的原因之一，因為在其他 3 個組成部分上仍有一些出色的工作要做。

Then on the FX part, that hits to a much larger extent on the gross profit line than it does on the cost below. It's actually positive on the cost below gross profit. So it's a significantly larger FX hit when you look at the gross margin. So I think you need to consider that to understand maybe the operational performance better.

然後在外匯部分，這對毛利潤線的影響比對以下成本的影響要大得多。它實際上對低於毛利的成本是積極的。因此，當您查看毛利率時，它對外彙的影響要大得多。因此，我認為您需要考慮這一點，以更好地了解運營績效。

And then maybe lastly, there is still a lot of inefficiency in our set up due to the call of volatility. It is -- the volatility is improving, but it's still far from levels that we had pre-COVID. And what I mean -- for instance, premium freight is still also a cost burden to us. It's not as bad as it was in the first quarter or even in the second, but it's still a headwind for us that's also impacting the gross margin.

然後也許最後，由於波動的呼聲，我們的設置仍然存在很多低效率。確實是——波動性正在改善，但仍遠未達到我們在 COVID 之前的水平。我的意思是——例如，溢價運費對我們來說仍然是成本負擔。它不像第一季度甚至第二季度那麼糟糕，但它仍然是我們的逆風，這也影響了毛利率。

Okay. Perfect. Fair point. And then my last question is about you're referring to the 90% of the negotiated contracts being now concluded. The contracts that you negotiate are they all contracts that you have? Or is it just the proportion of the outstanding contracts?

好的。完美的。有道理。然後我的最後一個問題是關於你指的是現在正在簽訂的 90% 的談判合同。您談判的合同都是您擁有的合同嗎？還是只是未完成合同的比例？

Can you -- I don't understand.

你能 - 我不明白。

I can say like that may be -- so you have, say, total contracts of your customers. Are you addressing all the contracts that you have with the price negotiations? Or are we just choosing some of the contracts to address?

我可以說可能是這樣 - 所以你有你的客戶的總合同。您是否正在處理所有與價格談判有關的合同？還是我們只是選擇一些合同來解決？

No, no, it is by customer. So we typically have an agreement by a customer. It might be sometimes by customer and region. But the 90% indicates that it covers all contracts that we have.

不，不，這是由客戶決定的。所以我們通常會得到客戶的同意。有時可能是由客戶和地區決定的。但 90% 表明它涵蓋了我們擁有的所有合同。

All contracts. Okay. Perfect. And then maybe a short follow-up on that. So when we look at Q3, how much of your sales was based on the negotiated prices? Was it already 90%? Or was it a smaller proportion?

所有合同。好的。完美的。然後可能會對此進行簡短的跟進。因此，當我們查看第三季度時，您的銷售額中有多少是基於協商價格？已經90%了嗎？還是比例更小？

It was less because there were contracts that were adjusted during the quarter and not all of that -- those had retroactivity in them.

減少是因為在本季度有一些合同進行了調整，而不是全部調整——這些合同具有追溯性。

Our next question comes from the line of Philipp Konig of Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Philipp Konig。

My first question is just coming back to the raw materials. You're guiding for around 5% for this year. If I look at it year-to-date, we are running at around 5% and it was around 4% in the third quarter. When -- is it fair to say that this is maybe a bit of a conservative assumption that probably given that Q4 should also see a bit of an improvement sequentially? And when do you see a potential rollover? I think in the first quarter this year, you had majority of your steel contracts that you renegotiated, would these be renegotiated again in the first quarter of next year? That's my first question.

我的第一個問題只是回到原材料上。你今年的指導價約為 5%。如果我看一下今年迄今為止的情況，我們的運行速度約為 5%，第三季度約為 4%。什麼時候——公平地說，這可能是一個保守的假設，可能考慮到第四季度也應該看到一些連續的改進？你什麼時候會看到潛在的翻轉？我想今年第一季度，你們大部分鋼鐵合同都重新談判了，明年第一季度還會重新談判嗎？這是我的第一個問題。

Yes. I mean we're seeing up to 5 percentage points. And the reason for that is that, yes, we do see that, for instance, steel or other nonferrous metals are coming down, and they should also have a positive effect already in the fourth quarter. However, that is offset by yarn and resin, which has a different cost development for us.

是的。我的意思是，我們看到最多 5 個百分點。其原因是，是的，我們確實看到，例如，鋼鐵或其他有色金屬正在下跌，而且它們在第四季度也應該已經產生了積極影響。然而，這被紗線和樹脂所抵消，這對我們來說具有不同的成本發展。

And as we've said many times before, we have the 6 to 9 months' time lag between spot price development and our -- when the costs come into our P&L, and that still holds true. So we need to see here how the cost -- whether the indices develop here going forward and then what that implies for next year. But I think it's also important to remember that even though we've seen the raw material costs come down or prices come down, there are still at significantly higher levels than they were pre-COVID.

正如我們之前多次說過的那樣，現貨價格的發展和我們的 - 當成本進入我們的損益表時，我們有 6 到 9 個月的時間差，這仍然適用。所以我們需要在這裡看看成本如何——指數是否會在未來發展，以及這對明年意味著什麼。但我認為同樣重要的是要記住，即使我們已經看到原材料成本下降或價格下降，但仍處於比 COVID 之前高得多的水平。

And my second question is just connected to the pricing on that. You moved up to 50% from 20% on the raw materials. Does that then also include the 6 to 9 months' time lag in line with how it hits your P&L? Or is that really pretty different across contracts?

我的第二個問題只是與定價有關。您將原材料的 20% 提高到 50%。那麼這是否還包括 6 到 9 個月的時間延遲，這與它如何影響您的損益表一致？或者這在合同之間真的有很大不同嗎？

There is a range on the contracts as well. And what we're striving for is to have a good balance between -- or the right setup between -- of how the top line is impacted versus how our cost base is impacted. But there's -- there are -- as Mikael said before, it's rather complex structures when you look at how the different contracts are set up by customer and then also the adjustment cycles of that. But our ambition is that we have a better balance between both cost and the top line development.

合同也有一個範圍。我們正在努力在收入如何受到影響與我們的成本基礎如何受到影響之間取得良好的平衡——或正確的設置。但是，正如 Mikael 之前所說，當您查看客戶如何設置不同的合同以及其調整週期時，這是相當複雜的結構。但我們的目標是在成本和營收發展之間取得更好的平衡。

Our next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner at Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

So it's good to see that you're having productive negotiations around price recoveries for energy, freight, labor. When would you expect the timing of these negotiations to conclude? And would the benefit be seen this year? Or is this something that would be incremental for 2023?

因此，很高興看到你們圍繞能源、貨運和勞動力的價格復甦進行了富有成效的談判。您預計這些談判何時結束？今年會看到好處嗎？或者這是否會在 2023 年有所增加？

I think it's gradually coming on here as we move forward with negotiations. And of course, I mean, it's -- as long as we live in an inflationary environment here and we see continued cost pressure, it's, of course, an ongoing dialogue and discussion with our customers and how to pass this on. So I wouldn't say that we will be finished at a certain point. It all is connected to how the cost development will be when it comes to these external factors, but gradually seeing the effects from that.

我認為隨著我們推進談判，它會逐漸出現。當然，我的意思是，只要我們生活在通貨膨脹的環境中並且我們看到持續的成本壓力，當然，這就是與我們的客戶進行持續的對話和討論，以及如何將其傳遞下去。所以我不會說我們會在某個時候完成。當涉及到這些外部因素時，這一切都與成本發展的方式有關，但逐漸看到由此產生的影響。

Understood. And then, I guess, separately, so you mentioned, I guess, in the implied fourth quarter margin outlook, you mentioned some typical seasonality and sort of timing benefit in there. Would you be more comfortable thinking about your second half 2022 margin as a good run rate to start thinking about building expectations for next year? Is that a cleaner number in terms of where you think your business is operating on an underlying basis?

明白了。然後，我想，分開，所以你提到，我猜，在隱含的第四季度利潤率展望中，你提到了一些典型的季節性和某種時間優勢。您是否更願意將 2022 年下半年的利潤率視為開始考慮建立明年預期的良好運行率？就您認為您的業務在基礎上運營的地方而言，這是一個更清晰的數字嗎？

Yes. I think, first of all, I mean, the good thing here is that we are moving in the right direction here and building a momentum as we manage through this difficult external landscape. And I think when we talk about run rates here, I think what we're showing here is that we have good improvement on the underlying run rate here. But we still have a lot of external factors heading in the wrong direction. I mean, it's still a headwind for us and will probably continue to be so, and we have mentioned them earlier here around overall inflationary pressure. We have the currency situation, volatility, we still see far from normalized there and we have the component and labor shortage in general for the industry here.

是的。我認為，首先，我的意思是，這裡的好處是，我們正在朝著正確的方向前進，並在我們度過這一艱難的外部環境時建立動力。我認為當我們在這裡談論運行率時，我認為我們在這裡展示的是我們在這裡的基本運行率有了很好的改進。但是我們仍然有很多外部因素朝著錯誤的方向發展。我的意思是，這對我們來說仍然是一個逆風，並且可能會繼續如此，我們之前已經在整體通脹壓力中提到了它們。我們有貨幣情況，波動性，我們仍然認為那裡的正常化還有很長的路要走，而且我們這裡的行業普遍存在組件和勞動力短缺。

So I think with too many moving pieces on the outside, I think it's difficult to be too firm here. But despite all this, I think we are showing here that our own activities is really giving results here. And I'm happy to see that, and I'm feeling that we are well set up to continue to deal with the external environment here.

所以我認為外面有太多動人的東西，我認為在這裡很難太堅定。但儘管如此，我認為我們在這裡展示了我們自己的活動確實在這裡取得了成果。我很高興看到這一點，我覺得我們已經準備好繼續處理這裡的外部環境。

The next question comes from the line of Rod Lache at Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

I wanted to ask about the new contracts. So if you do see direct material declines from here or commodity declines from here, can you maybe just give us a little bit of color on how much of that gets retained? So I believe that 40% of your material exposure is steel, which is obviously down a lot, but now you have index agreements on some of your contracts.

我想問一下新合同。因此，如果您確實看到從這裡開始的直接材料下降或從這裡開始的商品下降，您能否給我們一些關於保留多少的顏色？所以我相信你們40%的材料敞口是鋼鐵，這顯然下降了很多，但現在你們的一些合同有指數協議。

And then secondly, just regarding the non-raw material negotiations. So labor, logistics and utilities. Could you give us a sense of what the value at stake is or what you are targeting in terms of recovery in that category?

其次，就非原材料談判而言。所以勞動力、物流和公用事業。您能否讓我們了解風險價值是什麼，或者您在該類別的複蘇方面的目標是什麼？

Yes. If I start with the raw material part, as we said here a couple of times, I mean there are different setups now with different customers, and they follow both different indices and different, say, renewal cycles. So our target is really that we have a balance between our cost side and our customer side that does not have a significant impact on our margin going forward, but that we have a good balance here between price and cost.

是的。如果我從原材料部分開始，正如我們在這裡說過幾次，我的意思是現在有不同的客戶有不同的設置，他們遵循不同的指標和不同的，比如更新周期。因此，我們的目標實際上是在成本方和客戶方之間取得平衡，這不會對我們未來的利潤率產生重大影響，但我們在價格和成本之間取得了良好的平衡。

Also not to forget, I mean, we are indicating here that we are now -- we have clauses on materials here on about half the portfolio, not on more than that. So the other half is then still being negotiated and does not follow any type of indexation or closed setup.

另外不要忘記，我的意思是，我們在這裡表明我們現在 - 我們在大約一半的投資組合中有關於材料的條款，而不是更多。因此，另一半仍在協商中，不遵循任何類型的索引或封閉設置。

Then on the non-raw material, I mean it is a significantly smaller part that has -- or how it has burdened our cost structure so far. I mean on utilities, as we said here, it's around 1% of our cost base. And then we've seen or we expect for this year to have maybe a 10 basis point increase on utilities, whereas freight and labor are significantly more -- or stronger headwinds that we're facing. So the focus is really now here for us to also have fact-based discussions here with our customers and to be able to get the offset also for these cost types.

然後在非原材料方面，我的意思是它是一個小得多的部分，或者說到目前為止它是如何給我們的成本結構帶來負擔的。我的意思是公用事業，正如我們在這裡所說，它約占我們成本基礎的 1%。然後我們已經看到或預計今年公用事業可能會增加 10 個基點，而貨運和勞動力則要多得多——或者我們面臨的阻力更大。因此，我們現在的重點實際上是在這裡與我們的客戶進行基於事實的討論，並能夠獲得這些成本類型的抵消。

Okay. Great. And just lastly, can you maybe just give us an update on where you stand on the digitization and automation initiatives and what you're looking at in terms of implementing that over the near term?

好的。偉大的。最後，您能否向我們介紹一下您在數字化和自動化計劃方面的立場以及您在短期內實施該計劃方面的看法？

No, I think we have hold on to our, what we call the strategic road maps where digitalization and optimization is a part of. And I think that's very important to do that even though we have a lot of challenges short term here in the market. And we are progressing according to plan there. And that, of course, is also what's helping us here gradually each quarter. We will continue with that.

不，我認為我們已經堅持了我們所謂的戰略路線圖，其中數字化和優化是其中的一部分。而且我認為這樣做非常重要，即使我們在市場上短期內面臨很多挑戰。我們正在那裡按計劃進行。當然，這也是每個季度逐漸幫助我們的原因。我們將繼續這樣做。

And our next question comes from the line of Hampus Engellau at Handelsbanken.

我們的下一個問題來自 Handelsbanken 的 Hampus Engellau。

I just wanted to hear you guys on the deal activity in Europe. I had some conversations with other sub-suppliers to the auto industry saying that they've seen cancellations from OEMs and part of that could be that they are now seeing better component availability, which means that they're slightly normalizing their inventory levels. What's your view on that and is your experience similar in your daily business? That's my only question.

我只是想听聽你們在歐洲的交易活動。我與汽車行業的其他次級供應商進行了一些對話，他們說他們已經看到原始設備製造商取消訂單，部分原因可能是他們現在看到了更好的組件可用性，這意味著他們正在稍微正常化他們的庫存水平。您對此有何看法，您在日常業務中的經歷是否相似？這是我唯一的問題。

I think as we said before here, I mean, we have seen improvements when it comes to the volatility. But I would say it's still an issue and far from normalized. So that's ongoing. Of course, the volumes also have stabilized and improved on an absolute level here compared to the previous quarters. So we're moving in the right direction, but it's still far from normalized here.

我認為正如我們之前所說，我的意思是，在波動性方面我們已經看到了改善。但我會說這仍然是一個問題，遠未正常化。所以這一直在進行。當然，與前幾個季度相比，這裡的交易量也已經穩定並在絕對水平上有所改善。所以我們正朝著正確的方向前進，但它還遠未正常化。

And it's clearly so that, I mean, yes, the semiconductor availability has improved, but we still see differences between the different customers here. Some is, you could say, almost gone, it's not a topic, whilst others still are facing some challenges there. So I guess it depends on the OEM here still.

很明顯，我的意思是，是的，半導體的可用性得到了改善，但我們仍然看到不同客戶之間的差異。有些，你可以說，幾乎消失了，這不是一個話題，而另一些仍然面臨著一些挑戰。所以我想這仍然取決於這裡的 OEM。

Our next question comes from the line of Vijay Rakesh of Mizuho.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh。

Just to beat a dead horse again on the pricing side, just wondering, as you look at your price adjustments, some are tied to indices and on a rolling basis, I guess. But are you using like 2019, '20 as a base for some of these price increases? Or are they more tied to where pricing is now? Which means as pricing starts to come down, it could be -- it could impact your future pricing. Can you talk to how -- what's the starting point versus base pricing you're using?

只是為了在定價方面再次擊敗一匹死馬，只是想知道，當您查看價格調整時，我猜有些與指數掛鉤，並且是滾動的。但是，您是否使用像 2019 年、20 年這樣的價格上漲作為其中一些價格上漲的基礎？還是它們與現在的定價更相關？這意味著隨著價格開始下降，它可能會影響您未來的定價。你能談談如何 - 你使用的基本定價與起點是什麼？

Yes. I mean it's a good point. I mean, of course, if you don't -- if you're not on a setup like that and then you have to jump on to an index, you need to make sure that you get the right price compensation. That's what we've been extremely focused on. So for us, it's been really about getting the right height on these adjustments to compensate for the -- basically, the cost evolution that we had to absorb for a period of time here. And that's been our prime focus. And as we've closed out on 90% plus off of these agreements, I think we can also then with that say that we have gotten the right height as we would have expected, otherwise, we would not have closed them out.

是的。我的意思是這是一個很好的觀點。我的意思是，當然，如果你不這樣做——如果你不是在這樣的設置上，然後你必須跳到一個指數上，你需要確保你得到正確的價格補償。這是我們一直非常關注的。因此，對我們來說，實際上是在這些調整中獲得正確的高度，以補償 - 基本上，我們必須在這裡吸收一段時間的成本演變。這一直是我們的主要關注點。由於我們已經關閉了這些協議的 90% 以上，我認為我們也可以這樣說我們已經達到了我們預期的正確高度，否則我們就不會關閉它們。

Got it. And so then as you look at '23 given that pricing might come down, but still they could be fairly elevated, you would expect still that to be a fairly good tailwind into '23 as well, right?

知道了。因此，當您查看 23 年時，考慮到價格可能會下降，但它們仍然可能會相當高，您仍然會期望這對 23 年也是一個相當不錯的順風，對吧？

It's -- I think it's too early to tell. But I mean, the way that the indices look right now, it would indicate that the cost would come down and then that would also then lead to, say, an adjustment on the pricing side or vice versa. And then really here, our ambition is that this -- that we have a better balance between the cost and the pricing development and also that this is reflected in a reasonable amount of time, and that, that reduces our risk profile as a company. So that has been our main addition here.

這是 - 我認為現在說還為時過早。但我的意思是，從目前的指數來看，它表明成本會下降，然後也會導致定價方面的調整，反之亦然。然後真的在這裡，我們的目標是——我們在成本和定價發展之間取得更好的平衡，並且這反映在合理的時間量上，這降低了我們作為一家公司的風險狀況。這就是我們在這裡的主要補充。

Got it. Last question. On the inventory side, when you look at your OEM customers and the channel, can you talk to how inventory levels are improving or if they are not either sequentially or year-on-year? If you can give us some color on that.

知道了。最後一個問題。在庫存方面，當您查看您的 OEM 客戶和渠道時，您能否談談庫存水平是如何改善的，或者它們是否不是按順序或同比？如果你能給我們一些顏色。

Actually, the main problem for us at the moment is more on the raw material side, so more on the incoming inventory levels, and that's where we have the larger problems but due to still rather distressed supply chains and then also longer lead times. So that has been the larger issue for us.

實際上，目前我們的主要問題更多是在原材料方面，因此更多是在進貨庫存水平上，這就是我們遇到更大問題的地方，但由於供應鏈仍然相當困難，而且交貨時間也更長。所以這對我們來說是一個更大的問題。

Then, of course, also the -- the call of volatility causes inefficiencies on the finished goods side, but that is not a large problem year-over-year. I mean, that was actually even worse last year than this year.

然後，當然，波動的呼聲也會導致成品方面的效率低下，但這並不是一個年復一年的大問題。我的意思是，這實際上比去年更糟。

I think we're out of time here. So I think we should close the call maybe.

我想我們已經沒時間了。所以我認為我們應該結束通話。

Of course. I'll hand back to you for the closing comments.

當然。我會交還給你的結束意見。

Okay. Thank you, Mark. Before we end today's call, I would like to say that we are continuing to build resilience and strength in turbulent times relying on our strong company culture. Our actions are creating both short-term and long-term improvements, and we believe these actions would enable us to build an even stronger position despite the challenging macro environment. We remain agile and prepared for more adverse market development, should that be necessary.

好的。謝謝你，馬克。在結束今天的電話會議之前，我想說的是，依靠我們強大的公司文化，我們將在動盪時期繼續建立韌性和力量。我們的行動正在創造短期和長期的改進，我們相信這些行動將使我們能夠在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中建立更強大的地位。如果有必要，我們將保持敏捷並為更不利的市場發展做好準備。

Autoliv continues to focus on our vision of saving more lives, which is our most important direct contribution to a sustainable society. Our fourth quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, January 27, 2023.

奧托立夫繼續專注於我們拯救更多生命的願景，這是我們對可持續發展社會最重要的直接貢獻。我們的第四季度財報電話會議定於 2023 年 1 月 27 日星期五舉行。

Thank you, everyone, for participating in today's call. We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv. Until next time, stay safe.

謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們衷心感謝您對 Autoliv 的持續關注。直到下一次，保持安全。