Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day and thank you for standing by.

您好，感謝您的支持。

Welcome to the Autoliv Inc fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results conference call and webcast.

歡迎參加 Autoliv Inc 2024 年第四季和全年財務業績電話會議和網路廣播。

(Operator Instructions) Please note that today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，今天的會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker, Anders Trapp, Vice President, Investor Relations.

現在，我想將會議交給發言人、投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, Ralph.

謝謝你，拉爾夫。

Welcome everyone to our fourth quarter and full year '24 earnings call on this call.

歡迎大家參加我們 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

We have our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt; and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin; and me Anders Trapp, VP Investor Relations.

我們的總裁兼執行長是 Mikael Bratt；以及我們的財務長 Fredrik Westin；和我，投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。

During today's earnings call, we will cover several key topics including our sales and record earnings, strong cash flow and balance sheet.

在今天的財報電話會議上，我們將討論幾個關鍵主題，包括我們的銷售額和創紀錄的收益、強勁的現金流和資產負債表。

We will outline the expected margin improvement in 2025 as well as how our strong balance sheet and asset returns will support continued high levels of shareholder returns.

我們將概述2025年預期的利潤率改善，以及我們強勁的資產負債表和資產回報將如何支持持續的高水準股東回報。

Following the presentation, we will be available to answer your questions.

演示結束後，我們將回答您的問題。

As usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com.

像往常一樣，這些幻燈片可以在 autoliv.com 上取得。

Turning to the next slide, we have the Safe Harbor statement which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows.

翻到下一張投影片，我們有安全港聲明，它是本次簡報的一個組成部分，包括接下來的問答部分。

During the presentation, we will reference non-US GAAP measures the reconciliations of historical US GAAP to nonuse GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly earnings release available on autoliv.com and in the 10-K that will be filed with the SEC.

在演示過程中，我們將引用非美國 GAAP 指標，歷史美國 GAAP 與未使用 GAAP 指標的調節表在我們可在 autoliv.com 上查閱的季度收益報告中以及將向美國證券交易委員會提交的 10-K 文件中披露。

Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3 PM Central European Time.

最後，我要說一下，本次通話預計將於歐洲中部時間下午 3 點結束。

So please follow a limit of two questions per person.

因此，請限制每個人只問兩個問題。

I will now hand over to our Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt.

現在我將主席職務移交給我們的執行長 Mikael Bratt。

Thank you, Anders.

謝謝你，安德斯。

Looking on the next slide.

請看下一張投影片。

I am very happy to present a record breaking quarter.

我很高興能夠宣布一個破紀錄的季度。

This is a testament to our employees' hard work, dedication and commitment and I want to thank them for their outstanding contributions and for consistently driving our success forward.

這是對我們員工的辛勤工作、奉獻精神和承諾的證明，我要感謝他們的傑出貢獻以及不斷推動我們取得成功。

Meeting our full year guidance, despite accelerated market headwinds, showcases the company's adaptability and resilience, driven by our diverse product portfolio and strong customer relationships.

儘管市場逆風加劇，我們仍達到全年預期，這展現了公司在多樣化產品組合和牢固客戶關係的推動下所具有的適應性和韌性。

This achievement not only highlights our current success but also lays a solid foundation for 2025 with continued margin expansion.

這項成就不僅彰顯了我們目前的成功，也為2025年持續擴大利潤奠定了堅實的基礎。

Despite light vehicle production mix deterioration, leading to lower sales will reach new record highs in the quarter for operating profit, operating margin and earnings per share.

儘管輕型車生產結構惡化，導致銷量下降，但本季營業利潤、營業利潤率和每股收益仍創下歷史新高。

For the full year, we also had a record high operating cash flow.

全年我們的經營現金流也創下了歷史新高。

I am also pleased that we generated an exceptional level of return on our capital employed.

我也很高興我們獲得了卓越的資本回報。

Our strong performance was mainly a result of strict cost control.

我們的強勁業績主要得益於嚴格的成本控制。

Our structural cost reduction program enabled us to reduce our indirect workforce by 1,400 since Q1 2023.

我們的結構性成本削減計劃使我們自 2023 年第一季以來間接員工人數減少了 1,400 人。

We managed to accelerate our operating efficiency improvements partly supported by an improved customer call of accuracy which contributed to a reduction of direct head count by 4,500 in one year, which is a reduction of almost 9%.

我們設法加快了營運效率的提高，部分原因是客戶呼叫準確度的提高，這使得一年內直接員工人數減少了 4,500 人，降幅接近 9%。

The strong results were also supported by agreements we reached with all major customers on excess inflation compensation.

我們與所有主要客戶達成的超額通膨補償協議也支持了強勁的業績。

Cash flow continued to be strong supporting a high level of shareholder returns.

現金流持續強勁，支持高水準的股東回報。

In the quarter, we repurchased shares for USD102 million and retired 3 million shares.

本季度，我們回購了 1.02 億美元的股票，並註銷了 300 萬股。

The board of directors has approved an extension of the shares repurchase program until the end of 2025.

董事會已批准將股票回購計畫延長至2025年底。

Under the extended repurchase program, USD480 million remains.

在延長的回購計畫下，剩餘4.8億美元。

Autoliv was rated BBB+ with a stable outlook by Fitch ratings in November.

11 月份，惠譽將奧托立夫的評級定為 BBB+，展望穩定。

Looking now on financials in more detail on the next slide.

下一張投影片將更詳細地介紹財務狀況。

Sales in the fourth quarter decreased by 5% year over year for several market-related reasons.

由於多種市場原因，第四季銷售額較去年同期下降了 5%。

This includes negative effects from currency translations.

這包括貨幣轉換帶來的負面影響。

LVP development as well as the regional and customer mix development.

LVP 開發以及區域和客戶組合開發。

Despite this, the adjusted operating income for Q4 increased by 5% to USD349 million from USD334 million last year.

儘管如此，第四季調整後的營業收入從去年的 3.34 億美元成長 5% 至 3.49 億美元。

The adjusted operating margin was 13.4%, a record for the company operating cash flow was a solid USD420 million.

調整後營業利益率為13.4%，公司營業現金流創歷史新高，達4.2億美元。

Looking now on the next slide, we continue to generate broad based improvement.

現在看下一張投影片，我們將繼續實現廣泛的改進。

Our direct labor productivity continues to improve as we reduce our direct production personnel by 4,500 year over year.

我們的直接勞動生產力持續提高，直接生產人員比去年同期減少了 4,500 人。

This is supported by the implementation of our strategic initiatives including automation and digitalization.

這得歸功於我們實施自動化和數位化等策略性措施。

Our gross margin was 21%, an increase of 180 basis points year over year.

我們的毛利率為21%，年增180個基點。

The improvement was mainly the result of direct labor efficiency and head count reduction, partly offset by lower sales and a supplier and supplier settlement as communicated in the previous quarter.

這項改善主要歸因於直接勞動力效率和員工人數的減少，但部分被上一季公佈的銷售額下降以及供應商與供應商的結算所抵消。

As a result of our structural efficiency initiatives, the positive trend for RD&E and SDNA from the beginning of the year continued.

由於我們採取了結構性效率舉措，RD&E 和 SDNA 自今年年初以來一直保持著正面趨勢。

Combined with the gross margin improvement, this led to the substantial improvement in adjusted operating margin.

加上毛利率的提高，導致調整後營業利益率大幅提高。

Looking now on the market development in the fourth quarter on the next slide., According to S&P Global, total global light vehicle production for the fourth quarter increased by 40 basis points exceeding the expectation from the beginning of the quarter by over 4% points.

下一張投影片讓我們來看看第四季的市場發展。

Most of this improvement was driven by local OEMs in China, supported by the scrapping and replacement subsidy policy, as well as high growth in South America.

這一成長主要得益於中國本土汽車廠商的推動，以及報廢更換補貼政策和南美洲市場的快速成長。

Key markets in North America and Europe performed in line with expectations.

北美和歐洲主要市場表現符合預期。

This resulted in a more unfavorable regional light vehicle production mix of around 4 basis points in the quarter significantly impacting our outperformance negatively.

這導致本季區域輕型汽車生產組合更加不利，下降了約 4 個基點，對我們的優異表現產生了嚴重負面影響。

In the quarter, we did see call of volatility improving both from the third quarter and year over year.

在本季度，我們確實看到波動性呼聲較第三季和去年同期都有所改善。

We will talk about the market development more in detail later in the presentation.

我們將在後面的演示中更詳細地討論市場發展。

Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide.

下一張投影片將更詳細地介紹我們的銷售成長情況。

Our consolidated net sales were USD2.6 billion.

我們的合併淨銷售額為26億美元。

This was USD136 million lower than a year earlier driven by lower light vehicle production, negative currency translation effects, and lower out of period cost compensations.

由於輕型車產量下降、貨幣換算的負面影響以及期外成本補償減少，該數字比去年同期下降了 1.36 億美元。

The negative currency translation effect reduced sales by almost 2% in the quarter.

負面的貨幣換算效應導致本季銷售額下降了近 2%。

Out of period cost compensation contributed with approximately USD24 million in the quarter.

本季期間成本補償貢獻約為 2,400 萬美元。

This was USD21 million lower than in the same period last year.

比去年同期下降了2100萬美元。

Out of period compensations are retroactive price adjustments and other compensations that mainly related to the first three quarters but were settled in the fourth quarter.

期外補償是指追溯性價格調整和其他補償，主要與前三個季度有關，但在第四季度已結算。

Looking on the regional sales, it split reflects the high growth of automotive markets in Asia and our strong market position there.

從區域銷售來看，其分佈反映了亞洲汽車市場的高成長和我們在那裡強大的市場地位。

China accounted for 23%; Asia, excluding China accounted for 20%; Americas for 30%, and Europe for 27%.

中國佔23%；亞洲（不包括中國）佔20%；美洲佔30%，歐洲佔27%。

We outlined our organic sales growth compared to light vehicle production on the next slide.

我們在下一張幻燈片中概述了與輕型汽車產量相比的有機銷售成長。

Our quarterly sales were robust but slightly below our expectations.

我們的季度銷售強勁，但略低於我們的預期。

Primarily due to a more unfavorable regional and customer mix.

主要是由於區域和客戶結構較為不利。

We continued to outperform light vehicle production significantly in Japan, the rest of Asia and in Europe, fueled by product launches and pricing.

由於產品發布和定價的推動，我們的輕型汽車產量在日本、亞洲其他地區以及歐洲繼續大幅領先。

The outperformers in the rest of Asia were driven by India and South Korea.

亞洲其他地區表現優異的主要是印度和韓國。

We expect a continued strong outperformance in 2025 in India from a number of launches.

我們預計，2025 年印度的一系列新產品將持續帶來強勁表現。

In China, we underperformed as light vehicle production growth mix continued to be tilted towards lower CPV models from Chinese domestic OEMs.

在中國，我們的表現不佳，因為輕型汽車產量成長組合繼續傾向於中國國內 OEM 廠商的低 CPV 車型。

In America, we underperformed light vehicle production by 3% points mainly as a result of dealer inventory reductions by major customers and strong South American growth.

在美國，我們的輕型汽車產量比預期低 3 個百分點，主要原因是主要客戶減少經銷商庫存，以及南美經濟強勁成長。

Among the primary growth drivers for the company this quarter, five were Chinese OEMs and two were Japanese underscoring the significance of the Asian market and its customers.

本季該公司的主要成長動力中，有五家來自中國 OEM，兩家來自日本，凸顯了亞洲市場及其客戶的重要性。

On the next slide, we have the organic sales growth for the full year 2024.

下一張幻燈片展示了 2024 年全年的有機銷售成長。

For the full year, we outperformed global light vehicle production by around 2% points.

全年來看，我們的輕型車產量比全球高出約2個百分點。

We estimate that the regional light vehicle production mix was 2% to 3% points worse than expected in the beginning of the year.

我們估計，該地區輕型汽車產量結構比年初預期低 2% 至 3 個百分點。

We outperformed in Japan by 13% points, in the rest of Asia by 10% points, and in Europe by 6% points.

我們在日本的表現比其他國家高出 13 個百分點，在亞洲其他地區高出 10 個百分點，在歐洲高出 6 個百分點。

Our sales to domestic Chinese OEMs grow by 24% and they accounted for more than 37% of our China sales, up from 28% in 2023.

我們對中國國內 OEM 的銷售額成長了 24%，占我們中國銷售額的 37% 以上，高於 2023 年的 28%。

Even so, the negative market mix still resulted in an underperformance of 7% points in China.

即便如此，負面的市場組合仍導致在中國的表現落後 7%。

We expect this to improve in 2025 as our strong order intake with Chinese OEMs should result in a record number of new launches in 2025 leading to significantly better sales performance compared to light vehicle production in China.

我們預計這種情況在 2025 年會有所改善，因為我們從中國 OEM 獲得的強勁訂單將帶來 2025 年新車發布的創紀錄數量，從而帶來比中國輕型汽車產量更好的銷售業績。

Our global market position is strong and we are the market leader in all regions and product categories.

我們在全球市場佔有強大的地位，並且是所有地區和產品類別的市場領導者。

In 2024, our global market share was around 44%.

2024年，我們的全球市佔率約為44%。

This excludes sales of components such as invasive.

這不包括侵入式等組件的銷售。

This is almost 5% points higher than in 2018.

這比 2018 年高出近 5%。

Supported by new launches, especially with Chinese OEMs and CPV growth, we expect sales to outperform light vehicle production by 2% to 3% points in 2025.

受新產品發布的推動，尤其是中國原始設備製造商和 CPV 成長的推動，我們預計 2025 年銷售量將比輕型汽車產量高出 2% 至 3%。

On the next slide, we see some key model launches from Q4.

在下一張幻燈片中，我們將看到第四季度推出的一些關鍵型號。

We saw a record number of significant launches in 2024.

2024 年，重大發射數量創下了歷史新高。

For 2025, we also anticipate a high number of launches especially with Chinese OEMs.

到 2025 年，我們預計新車發布數量將大幅增加，尤其是來自中國 OEM 廠商。

In this slide, three of these models are from Chinese OEMs and three from OEMs in India.

在此幻燈片中，其中三種型號來自中國 OEM，三種來自印度 OEM。

This highlights our growing position with Chinese OEMs and our success in capturing growth in the Indian market.

這凸顯了我們在中國 OEM 中日益提升的地位以及我們在印度市場的成長所取得的成功。

The models shown here have an Autoliv content per vehicle from around USD100 to over USD400.

這裡展示的模型每輛車的 Autoliv 含量從約 100 美元到 400 多美元不等。

In terms of Autoliv sales potential, the Toyota 4Runner and Suzuki DZIRE are the most significant.

就奧托立夫的銷售潛力而言，豐田4Runner和鈴木DZIRE最為顯著。

This is the first time we have a model in India with the highest sales potential.

這是我們首次在印度推出具有最高銷售潛力的車款。

The long term trend to higher CPV is supported by front center airbags on six of these models.

其中六款車型配備的前中央安全氣囊支持了 CPV 長期上漲的趨勢。

Now looking on the next slide in 2024 the industry's sourcing of new business was at its lowest level since 2018.

現在展望 2024 年，該行業的新業務採購處於 2018 年以來的最低水平。

This was driven by technological and geopolitical uncertainties causing the sourcing of several large platforms to be postponed until 2025.

這是由於技術和地緣政治的不確定性，導致幾個大型平台的採購被推遲到 2025 年。

In addition, model lifetime is shortening as Chinese OEMs' share of the order book increase.

此外，隨著中國原始設備製造商的訂單份額增加，車型壽命正在縮短。

Models from Chinese OEMs typically have an average lifetime that is a couple of years shorter.

中國原始設備製造商生產的車型的平均壽命通常要短幾年。

In order intake market share with the rapidly growing Chinese OEMs exceeded 40%, a significant improvement compared to our current market share of close to 25% with this group.

在快速成長的中國原始設備製造商的訂單進氣市佔率超過 40%，與目前我們在該集團中接近 25% 的市佔率相比有顯著提升。

Looking on the order intake more in detail on the next slide.

下一張投影片將更詳細地介紹訂單情況。

In 2024 order intake for new automakers mainly in the North America and China accounted for almost third of our order intake.

2024 年，主要來自北美和中國的新汽車製造商的訂單量占我們訂單量的近三分之一。

We won multiple awards supporting new markets and industry trends like foldable steering wheels for self-driving vehicles including a new type of driver airbag that deploys from the dashboard or ceiling.

我們贏得了多個獎項，支持新市場和行業趨勢，如自動駕駛汽車的可折疊方向盤，以及從儀表板或天花板展開的新型駕駛員安全氣囊。

I believe has successfully secured business in the commercial vehicle sector, bolstering our mobility safety solutions business.

我相信我們已成功獲得商用車領域的業務，從而增強了我們的行動安全解決方案業務。

This expansion not only strengthens our market position but also enhances our ability to deliver innovative safety solutions to a broader range of customers.

此次擴張不僅鞏固了我們的市場地位，也增強了我們向更廣泛客戶提供創新安全解決方案的能力。

We also won airbag contracts featuring low carbon cushion material, a significant step towards sustainability in automotive safety.

我們還贏得了採用低碳墊材料的安全氣囊合同，這是朝著汽車安全可持續性邁出的重要一步。

These innovative airbags not only reduce the environmental impact but also lower the cost of the airbag module.

這些創新的安全氣囊不僅減少了對環境的影響，而且還降低了安全氣囊模組的成本。

Thanks to the robust order intake in recent years, we anticipate that the number of product launches in 2025 to be on a similar level as in 2024.

由於近年來訂單量強勁，我們預計 2025 年推出的產品數量將與 2024 年持平。

This progress supports our long-term success.

這一進步支持了我們的長期成功。

Let's now look at the sustainability program during 2024 on the next slide.

現在讓我們在下一張投影片中看看 2024 年的永續發展計畫。

Sustainability is an integral part of our business strategy and an important driver for market differentiation and stakeholder value creation.

永續性是我們業務策略不可或缺的一部分，也是市場差異化和利害關係人價值創造的重要驅動力。

Our sustainability approach is based on four focus areas with clear ambitions and targets defined for each area.

我們的永續發展方法基於四個重點領域，每個領域都有明確的抱負和目標。

During 2024, we initiated and concluded a number of activities within these areas.

2024年，我們在這些領域發起並完成了一系列活動。

For example, we continue to expand our addressable users by expanding testing including diverse body shapes, ages and genders.

例如，我們透過擴大測試範圍，包括不同的體型、年齡和性別，繼續擴大我們的可尋址使用者。

Through collaborations, we address protection for vulnerable road users.

透過合作，我們致力於保護弱勢道路使用者。

We significantly improved our recordable incident rate.

我們顯著改善了可記錄事故率。

Greenhouse gas emissions in own operations were reduced by 15% compared to 2023, and the share of renewable electricity increased to 30% having positive environmental and financial effects.

與 2023 年相比，自身營運中的溫室氣體排放量減少了 15%，再生電力佔比增加到 30%，對環境和財務產生了積極的影響。

We conducted our annual supplier climate survey to assess the readiness for our net zero supply chain goals.

我們進行了年度供應商氣候調查，以評估我們實現淨零供應鏈目標的準備。

And we also integrated climate performance into supplier selection and launched a climate accelerator program to support them.

我們還將氣候績效納入供應商選擇之中，並啟動氣候加速器計畫來支持他們。

Turning the slide, I will now hand it over to Fredrik Westin.

現在我將投影片交給 Fredrik Westin。

Thank you, Mikael.

謝謝你，米凱爾。

I will talk about the financials more in detail on the next few slides.

我將在接下來的幾張投影片中更詳細地討論財務狀況。

So turning to the next slide, this slide highlights our key figures for the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.

請轉到下一張投影片，該投影片重點介紹了 2024 年第四季與 2023 年第四季相比的關鍵數據。

The net sales exceeded $2.6 billion representing nearly a 5% decrease.

淨銷售額超過 26 億美元，下降近 5%。

The gross profit increased by $20 million and the gross margin increased by 1.8 percentage points.

毛利增加2000萬美元，毛利率增加1.8個百分點。

The adjusted operating income increased from $334 million to $349 million and the adjusted operating margin increased by 120 basis points to 13.4%.

調整後的營業收入從 3.34 億美元增至 3.49 億美元，調整後的營業利潤率增加 120 個基點至 13.4%。

The reported operating income of $353 million was $4 million higher than the adjusted operating income, thanks to a positive impact from reversal of capacity alignment accruals.

報告的營業收入為 3.53 億美元，比調整後的營業收入高出 400 萬美元，這得益於產能調整應計項目逆轉的正面影響。

Adjusted earnings per share diluted, decreased by $0.70 where the main drivers were $0.90 from higher taxes and $0.10 from higher financial and non operating items partly compensated by $0.11 from higher operating income and $0.19 from lower number of shares.

調整後每股收益（攤薄後）減少 0.70 美元，主要原因是稅收增加 0.90 美元以及財務和非經營項目增加 0.10 美元，但營業收入增加 0.11 美元和股份數量減少 0.19 美元部分彌補了這一減少。

The adjusted return on capital employed was a solid 35% and our adjusted return on equity was 41% driven by share buybacks impacting total equity.

調整後的資本使用報酬率穩定在 35%，調整後的股本報酬率達到 41%，這得益於股票回購對總股本的影響。

We paid a dividend of $0.70 per share in the quarter and we repurchased shares for around USD102 million and retired 3 million shares.

我們在本季支付了每股 0.70 美元的股息，並回購了約 1.02 億美元的股票，並註銷了 300 萬股。

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide.

現在看下一張投影片中的調整後營業收入橋。

In the fourth quarter of 2024 our adjusted operating income increased by $16 million despite market headwinds from lower light vehicle production operations contributed with $57 million mainly from improved call off accuracy and higher operational efficiency as well as lower recall costs.

2024 年第四季度，儘管輕型汽車產量下降帶來市場阻力，但我們的調整後營業收入仍增加了 1,600 萬美元，其中 5,700 萬美元主要來自於召回準確性的提高和營運效率的提高以及召回成本的降低。

The largest offsetting factor to the increase was lower net sales.

抵消這一成長的最大因素是淨銷售額下降。

The net currency effect was $1 million negative as the positive effects mainly from the Mexican peso versus the US dollar was offset by translation effects and negative transaction effects from the Mexican peso versus the euro, the Japanese yen versus the Thai baht, and the US dollar versus the Korean won.

淨貨幣效應為負 100 萬美元，因為主要來自墨西哥比索兌美元的正面效應被墨西哥比索兌歐元、日圓兌泰銖和美元兌韓元的翻譯效應和負面交易效應所抵銷。

The impact from raw materials was around $6 million negative out of period cost compensation of $24 million was $21 million lower than last year.

原料的影響約為負 600 萬美元，而期間成本補償為 2,400 萬美元，比去年低 2,100 萬美元。

Costs for SG&A and RD&E net increased slightly on higher costs for SG&A personnel despite the offset from higher engineering income.

儘管工程收入增加抵銷了銷售、一般和行政費用以及研發與工程淨成本的增加，但由於銷售、一般和行政費用人員成本增加，銷售、一般和行政費用和研發與工程淨成本仍略有增加。

The impact of the supply settlement Mikael mentioned earlier was around $10 million in the fourth quarter.

Mikael 先前提到的供應和解對第四季的影響約為 1000 萬美元。

Looking now at the full year results on the next slide. 2024 was again impacted by labor and supply cost inflation, lower and volatile elect vehicle production, and customer price negotiations.

現在來看看下一張投影片中的全年業績。 2024 年再次受到勞動力和供應成本通膨、電動車產量下降和波動以及客戶價格談判的影響。

Our net sales were $10.4 billion, a 1% decline on negative currency translation effects.

我們的淨銷售額為 104 億美元，由於貨幣換算的負面影響下降了 1%。

The adjusted operating income increased by 9.5% to over USD1 billion.

調整後營業收入成長9.5%，達到10億美元以上。

The adjusted operating margin was 9.7% compared to our guidance of around 9.5% to 10%.

調整後的營業利潤率為 9.7%，而我們的預期約為 9.5% 至 10%。

The operating cash flow was $1.1 billion in line with the guidance adjusted earnings per share increased to $8.32 per share, partly as a result of the share repurchases dividends of $2.74 per share were paid.

經營現金流為 11 億美元，符合預期，調整後每股收益增至 8.32 美元，部分原因是每股回購股利為 2.74 美元。

Despite market headwinds and lower sales adjusted operating profit, operating cash flow as well as the earnings per share were all the highest we have ever achieved.

儘管面臨市場阻力和銷售額下降（調整後營業利潤），但經營現金流和每股盈餘都是我們所達到的最高水準。

Looking now at the cash flow in more detail on the next slide.

下一張投影片將更詳細地介紹現金流。

For the fourth quarter of 2024 the operating cash flow decreased by $27 million to $420 million compared to the same period last year mainly due to a less favorable working capital development, capital expenditures net decreased by $18 million compared to the same period the previous year.

2024 年第四季度，營運現金流較去年同期減少 2,700 萬美元至 4.2 億美元，主要原因是營運資本發展較不利，資本支出淨額較去年同期減少 1,800 萬美元。

Capital expenditures net in relation to sales was 5.0% versus 5.4% a year earlier.

資本支出淨額佔銷售額的比重為 5.0%，去年同期為 5.4%。

The free operating cash flow was positive $288 million compared to positive $297 million in the same period the prior year.

自由經營現金流為正 2.88 億美元，去年同期為正 2.97 億美元。

For the full year, 2024 operating cash flow increased by $77 million to $1.1 billion mainly on higher net income.

就全年而言，2024 年營運現金流增加了 7,700 萬美元，達到 11 億美元，主要由於淨收入增加。

The free operating cash flow was almost $0.5 billion.

自由經營現金流接近5億美元。

Capital expenditures net decreased by $6 million.

資本支出淨減少600萬美元。

Capital expenditures net in relation to sales was unchanged at 5.4%.

與銷售額相關的資本支出淨額維持不變，為 5.4%。

This level is slightly above what we expect for the longer term due to investments in capacity made in Asia and in footprint optimization.

由於對亞洲產能和足跡優化的投資，這一水平略高於我們的長期預期。

The cash conversion in 2024 defined as free operating cash flow in relation to net income was around 77% in line with our target of 80%.

2024 年的現金轉換率（即自由經營現金流與淨收入之比）約為 77%，與我們 80% 的目標一致。

Now looking at our trade working capital development on the next slide.

現在來看看下一張投影片中的貿易營運資本發展。

Trade working capital decreased by $117 million compared to the same period last year where the main drivers were $204 million in lower accounts receivables, $179 million in lower accounts payables, and $91 million in lower inventories.

貿易營運資本與去年同期相比減少了 1.17 億美元，主要原因是應收帳款減少 2.04 億美元、應付帳款減少 1.79 億美元以及庫存減少 9,100 萬美元。

In relation to sales, trade working capital decreased from 11.2% to 10.7%.

相對於銷售額，貿易營運資本從 11.2% 下降至 10.7%。

The improvement in trade working capital is a result of our multiyear working capital improvement program and an improvement in customer call of accuracy, enabling a more efficient inventory management.

貿易營運資本的改善是我們多年營運資本改善計畫和客戶呼叫準確性提高的結果，從而實現了更有效率的庫存管理。

Our capital efficiency program aims to improve working capital by $800 million.

我們的資本效率計畫旨在提高 8 億美元的營運資本。

And to date, we have achieved around $700 million.

到目前為止，我們已實現約 7 億美元。

Now looking on our shareholder returns on the next slide.

下一張投影片介紹我們的股東回報。

Over the years, Autoliv has demonstrated its capability to generate solid cash flow across different market conditions.

多年來，奧托立夫已證明其有能力在不同市場條件下創造穩定現金流。

During 2024 we returned over USD770 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks setting a new record for the company.

2024年，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了超過7.7億美元，創下了公司的新紀錄。

Over the last five years, we have significantly reduced our net debt while returning $1.9 billion directly to shareholders.

在過去五年裡，我們大幅減少了淨債務，同時直接向股東返還了 19 億美元。

This includes stock repurchases totaling over USD1 billion.

其中包括總額超過10億美元的股票回購。

Since initiating the current Stock repo program in 2022 we have reduced the number of outstanding shares by over 12%.

自 2022 年啟動目前的股票回購計畫以來，我們已將流通股數量減少了 12% 以上。

When executing the program, we consider several factors including our balance sheet, the cash flow outlook, our credit rating, and the general business conditions as well as the debt leverage ratio.

在執行計劃時，我們會考慮多種因素，包括我們的資產負債表、現金流量前景、我們的信用評級、一般商業狀況以及債務槓桿率。

We always strive to balance what is best for our shareholders in both the short and the long term.

我們始終致力於在短期和長期內平衡股東的最大利益。

Now looking on our debt leverage ratio development on the next slide.

下一張投影片介紹我們的債務槓桿率發展。

Autoliv has consistently prioritized maintaining a strong leverage ratio, reflecting our prudent financial management and commitment to a strong balance sheet.

奧托立夫始終將維持強勁的槓桿率放在首位，這反映了我們審慎的財務管理和對強勁資產負債表的承諾。

This approach has enabled the company to navigate economic fluctuations, invest in innovation, and continue delivering value to stakeholders.

這種方法使公司能夠應對經濟波動、投資創新並繼續為利害關係人提供價值。

While investing in our footprint and returning over $770 million to shareholders during 2024 our leverage ratio was unchanged at 1.2X compared to the third quarter.

在 2024 年投資我們的業務並向股東返還超過 7.7 億美元的同時，我們的槓桿率與第三季相比保持不變，為 1.2 倍。

Our debt leverage ratio decreased by 0.2X as our net debt decreased by $227 million while the 12 month trailing adjusted EBITDA increased by $17 million.

我們的債務槓桿率下降了 0.2 倍，因為我們的淨債務減少了 2.27 億美元，而過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 增加了 1700 萬美元。

With that, I hand it back to you, Mikael.

說完這些，我就把權力交給你了，米凱爾。

Thank you, Fredrik.

謝謝你，弗雷德里克。

On to the next slide.

轉到下一張投影片。

As we enter 2025 the full year outlook for the global light vehicle production by S&P Global stands at the minus 0.5%.

進入 2025 年，標準普爾全球對全球輕型汽車產量的全年預測為下降 0.5%。

The light vehicle production outlook is factoring in regional specific influences particularly the recent extension of the vehicle scrappage and replacement policy in China, persistent headwinds in Europe North America and North America, and a slower EV adaptation growth.

輕型汽車生產前景考慮了特定區域的影響，特別是中國最近延長的汽車報廢和更換政策、歐洲、北美和北美持續的逆風以及電動車適應成長放緩。

The latest forecast indicates a LVP decline of almost 2% for the first quarter versus last year.

最新預測顯示，第一季的 LVP 將與去年同期相比下降近 2%。

LVP in China is proacted to increase 4% in the first quarter following a particularly strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2024.

繼 2024 年第四季表現尤為強勁之後，中國 LVP 預計在第一季將成長 4%。

The ongoing trend of global OEMs losing market share is expected to persist but to moderate in the following quarters.

全球原始設備製造商市佔率不斷下降的趨勢預計還會持續，但在接下來的幾季將會有所緩和。

The forecast for North America first quarter LVP is minus 6%.

北美第一季LVP預測為負6%。

The main reason is the continued need for more vehicle inventory correction.

主要原因是需要繼續進行更多車輛庫存調整。

The light vehicle production in Europe is expected to drop 9% for the first quarter, mainly due to inventory adjustment.

預計第一季歐洲輕型車產量將下降9%，主要原因是庫存調整。

From the fourth quarter to the first quarter, global LVP is proacted to decline by 14%, a reduction of over 3 million vehicles.

從第四季到第一季度，全球汽車銷量預計將下降14%，減幅超過300萬輛。

This drop is significantly higher than what we have observed over the past three years where it has averaged around 7%.

這一降幅明顯高於我們過去三年觀察到的平均約 7% 的降幅。

Based on S&P Global's forecast and our own analysis, our 2025 guidance is built on a global light vehicle production decline of around 8.5% and the region mix in line with S&P's forecast for the full year.

根據標普全球的預測和我們自己的分析，我們對 2025 年的預測建立在全球輕型汽車產量下降約 8.5% 且地區結構與標普對全年的預測一致的基礎上。

Now looking on the business outlook on the next slide.

現在來看看下一張投影片中的業務前景。

We expect 2025 to be a challenging year for the automotive industry with LVP declining and geopolitical risks remaining.

我們預計 2025 年對汽車產業來說將是充滿挑戰的一年，因為 LVP 將下降，且地緣政治風險仍然存在。

However, our continued efficiency focus is expected to support further improvement of our profitability.

然而，我們持續注重效率有望支持我們的獲利能力進一步提高。

We expect to significantly improve our sales performance in China, and that the continued strong cash flow and balance sheet sets a solid foundation for our continued commitment to a high level of shareholder returns and our financial targets.

我們預計將大幅提高我們在中國的銷售業績，持續強勁的現金流和資產負債表為我們繼續致力於高水準的股東回報和財務目標奠定了堅實的基礎。

We expect cost pressure from inflation to moderate in 2025, but we still expect some pressure coming mainly from labor, especially in Europe and the Americas.

我們預期通膨帶來的成本壓力將在 2025 年得到緩和，但我們仍預期部分壓力主要來自勞動力，尤其是在歐洲和美洲。

We expect call of volatility in 2025 on average to be slightly lower than it was in 2024, but remaining higher than the pre-pandemic level.

我們預計 2025 年的波動率平均將略低於 2024 年，但仍高於疫情前的水準。

We also anticipate the challenging fourth quarter in terms of operating margin which should gradually improve throughout the year, similar sequential development as we've seen in the past few years with a relatively weak first quarter and gradual improvement throughout the year.

我們也預計，第四季的營業利潤率將面臨挑戰，但全年將逐漸改善，與過去幾年的情況類似，第一季相對疲軟，全年將逐漸改善。

Turning to the next slide.

翻到下一張投影片。

In closing to summarize our 2025 outlook, we expect continued sales outperformance versus light vehicle production, improved profitability compared to 2024.

最後總結我們對 2025 年的展望，我們預計輕型汽車銷量將繼續優於輕型汽車產量，獲利能力將較 2024 年有所提高。

This improvement is primarily supported by structural cost reduction and strategic initiatives, higher sales as well as favorable currency effects.

這項改善主要得益於結構性成本降低和策略性舉措、銷售成長以及有利的貨幣效應。

We remain mindful of the risk of deteriorating economic conditions and potential tariffs.

我們仍然警惕經濟狀況惡化和潛在關稅的風險。

But I am confident that our leading position, the work we have done to become more resilient and our experience and agility will enable us to manage future challenging conditions.

但我堅信，我們的領先地位、我們為增強韌性所做的努力以及我們的經驗和敏捷性將使我們能夠應對未來的挑戰。

Now looking on the 2025 guidance in detail on the next slide.

現在，我們在下一張投影片中詳細查看 2025 年的指導。

This slide shows our full year 2025 guidance which excludes effects from capacity alignment, antitrust related matters, and other discrete items.

這張投影片展示了我們 2025 年全年的預期，其中不包括產能調整、反壟斷相關事項和其他單獨項目的影響。

Our full year guidance is based on a global light vehicle production decline of around 0.5%, a tax rate of around 28%, and that the net charity translation effects on sales will be around minus 2%.

我們對全年業績的預期是基於全球輕型汽車產量下降約 0.5%、稅率約 28%，以及慈善轉換對銷售的淨影響約為負 2%。

Based on this, we expect our organic sales to increase by around 2%.

基於此，我們預計我們的有機銷售額將成長 2% 左右。

The guidance for adjusted operating margin is around 10% to 10.5%.

調整後的營業利潤率預期約為 10% 至 10.5%。

Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD1.2 billion.

預計經營現金流約12億美元。

Our positive cash flow trend and our strong balance sheet supports our continued commitment to a high level of shareholder returns.

我們的正現金流趨勢和強勁的資產負債表支持我們繼續致力於高水準的股東回報。

The guidance for 2025 does not include any new or increased tariffs or other trade limitation which may impact our operations.

2025 年的指導方針不包括任何可能影響我們營運的新關稅或增加的關稅或其他貿易限制。

We are monitoring the situation closely and are prepared to be agile as possible to adjust to any such development.

我們正在密切關注事態發展，並準備盡可能靈活地適應任何事態發展。

Looking on the next slide.

請看下一張投影片。

This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call and we would like to open up the line for questions from analysts and investors.

今天的收益電話會議的正式評論到此結束，我們想開放給分析師和投資者提問。

I now hand it back to operator, Ralf.

我現在將它交還給操作員拉爾夫。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Colin Langan, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的科林·蘭根。

Maybe if you could just start with maybe framing some of the puts and takes when we think about the margins year-over-year.

也許，當我們考慮逐年利潤時，您可以先構思一些得失。

I think you mentioned FX transaction.

我覺得您提到了外匯交易。

I mean I think in '23, that was like $60 million of a drag.

我的意思是，我認為在 23 年，這就相當於造成了 6000 萬美元的拖累。

Is that kind of the framework of the good news that we should be thinking about?

這就是我們該思考的好消息的框架嗎？

And then does the labor inflation, is that offsetting 100% through the year with recoveries?

那麼勞動力通膨是否會隨著全年的復甦而 100％ 抵消？

Or is that maybe a net negative?

或者這可能是淨負值？

And then maybe any framing of the restructuring help we should be expecting?

那麼也許我們應該期待任何有關重組幫助的框架？

Yes.

是的。

On the FX, I would refrain from the guidance when it's included in, obviously, what we have here on the operating margin side.

關於外匯，當它顯然被納入我們的營業利潤率方面時，我會避免提供指引。

But I don't want to give what we expect from different currency peers here to contribute.

但我不想給出我們期望這裡的不同貨幣同行的貢獻。

But the peso should continue to be a positive for us.

但比索對我們來說應該會繼續發揮積極作用。

Then on the contribution of restructuring, we expect, as we've said before, around $50 million incremental savings in 2025 and we had $50 million of savings in line with our expectations in 2024.

然後關於重組的貢獻，正如我們之前所說，我們預計 2025 年將增加約 5000 萬美元的節省，並且 2024 年我們將實現 5000 萬美元的節省，符合我們的預期。

And other than that, the headwinds are from inflation.

除此之外，阻力來自通貨膨脹。

The headwind from the supplier cost inflation is higher than what we're expecting from labor cost inflation and the labor cost inflation continues to come down.

供應商成本通膨的阻力高於我們預期的勞動成本通膨，而且勞動成本通膨持續下降。

I mean, we've seen a gradual improvement, and we were talking now about clearly a small percentage numbers versus -- or as an excess inflation versus when this all kicked in.

我的意思是，我們已經看到了逐步的改善，我們現在談論的顯然只是一個很小的百分比數字，或者說與這一切開始的時候相比，是一個過度的通貨膨脹。

And then we are expecting to offset that by commercial recoveries from our customers, but it will be throughout the year.

然後，我們希望透過來自客戶的商業回收來抵消這一損失，但這將持續全年。

And we also had lump sum settlements last year, although the majority was piece price agreements but some of them now fall away in the first quarter already.

去年我們也有一次性結算，儘管大多數是計件價格協議，但其中一些現在在第一季已經消失了。

And then we need to replace them gradually throughout the year, but the ambition is to have a full offset for the gradual inflation that is hitting us.

然後，我們需要在全年逐步替換它們，但我們的目標是完全抵消正在困擾我們的逐漸通貨膨脹。

Got it.

知道了。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Obviously, a lot of headlines these days around tariffs, particularly on goods from Mexico to the US.

顯然，最近許多頭條新聞都與關稅有關，特別是針對從墨西哥到美國的商品。

Can you help us frame if a tariff is in place, how much of an impact that would be?

您能否幫我們估算一下，如果徵收關稅，會產生多大的影響？

And how you think you might be able to offset and work with customers to offset that?

您認為如何才能抵消這項影響以及如何與客戶合作來抵消這種影響？

I think if or when tariffs would be implemented there.

我認為關稅是否會或何時會在那裡實施。

And for us, it's mostly a question of Mexico, US tariffs.

對我們來說，這主要是墨西哥和美國關稅的問題。

Of course, that's passed on to our customer that is necessary there.

當然，這會傳遞給我們必要的客戶。

So I mean that would start immediately to be in discussion with our customer because there is no reason at all why we, as a supplier, should absorb any cost like that.

所以我的意思是，我們會立即開始與客戶進行討論，因為作為供應商，我們沒有理由承​​擔這樣的任何成本。

And I mean, ultimately, it will be a higher cost for vehicles sold in the US.

我的意思是，最終這會導致在美國銷售的汽車成本更高。

And we are preparing ourselves for that as soon as that might come.

我們正在盡快為此做好準備。

So that would start immediately that discussion.

這樣就可以立即開始討論。

Okay, great, great.

好的，太好了，太好了。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Edison Yu, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Edison Yu。

First off, on the outlook.

首先，關於前景。

I'm curious, what kind of impact are you embedding from mix in 2025?

我很好奇，2025 年混合會帶來什麼樣的影響？

Is that going to actually be a positive going forward relative to 2024?

相對於 2024 年而言，這實際上會是一個正面的影響嗎？

We expect around a 1 percentage point negative mix in 2025 versus 2024.

我們預計，2025 年的混合比例將比 2024 年下降約 1 個百分點。

So we -- it should be better than it was in '24.

因此我們 — — 它應該比 24 年更好。

So there we had a negative mix, as we said, around between 2 percentage points and 3 percentage points, and then in '25 that should improve to around 1 percentage point.

因此，正如我們所說，我們的負成長組合約為 2 個百分點至 3 個百分點，而到 25 年，這一比例應該會改善至 1 個百分點左右。

And maybe one correction.

也許還有一個修正。

I think in the presentation before, we said 4 basis points negative mix in Q4, that would be 4 percentage points in Q4.

我認為在先前的演示中，我們說過第四季的負成長為 4 個基點，也就是第四季的 4 個百分點。

Understood.

明白了。

Understood.

明白了。

And then on the order intake, I know you have this, this slide showing, obviously there's a decline and I think you called out a couple of big programs or a couple of big platforms.

然後關於訂單量，我知道你有這個，這張投影片顯示，顯然有一個下降趨勢，我想你提到了幾個大項目或幾個大平台。

Can you give us a sense of what happened there and and when you expect those or what kind of impact you would expect on the growth if any?

您能否告訴我們那裡發生了什麼情況，您預計這些情況何時會發生，或者您預計這對增長會產生什麼樣的影響（如果有的話）？

Yes.

是的。

I mean it's -- we have seen, as we saw, I mean, the lower sourcing activity from our customers basically since we spun off the electronics business.

我的意思是——自從我們剝離電子業務以來，我們看到客戶的採購活動基本上已經減少了。

So it is a rather unusually low sourcing or it was unusually lower sourcing activity, which continued to come down throughout the year.

因此，這是一個相當異常低的採購量，或者說採購活動異常低，並且全年都在持續下降。

What we see is that, I mean, there has been a lot of discussions around that OEMs are the leading sourcing on projects due to uncertainties on the drivetrain side.

我們看到的是，由於動力傳動系統方面的不確定性，關於原始設備製造商 (OEM) 是專案的主要採購方這一主題已經有很多討論。

But what we also see on top of that is also uncertainty to location of production, so where actually they would start or in which location would produce a certain platform.

但除此之外，我們也看到生產地點的不確定性，因此他們實際上會從哪裡開始或在哪個地點生產某個平台。

And that's had a significant impact on the overall market development in 2024 and more than we had expected going into the year.

這對 2024 年的整體市場發展產生了重大影響，超出了我們對今年的預期。

We also said here that there are a couple of platforms that we are the incumbent that have also been delayed into 2025.

我們也在這裡提到，我們現有的幾個平台也被推遲到 2025 年。

And the expectation here is that, that sourcing should come in during the first half of this year.

我們的預期是，採購將在今年上半年完成。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris McNally, Evercore.

克里斯‧麥克納利 (Evercore)。

Actually, just wanted to follow up on Edison's question and think about mix in a different way.

實際上，只是想跟進愛迪生的問題並以不同的方式思考混合。

I don't think -- you obviously don't guide by region.

我不這麼認為——你顯然沒有按地區進行指導。

But when I think about plus 2% organic at the midpoint, I was wondering if you could just take a shot at sort of ranking from strongest organic to weakest sort of across your four regions, non-Asia, China, North America and Europe.

但當我考慮中間點加上 2% 的自然轉換率時，我想知道您是否可以嘗試對四個地區（非亞洲、中國、北美和歐洲）的有機轉換率從最強到最弱進行排名。

Just sort of where we may see the highest to lowest?

我們可以從哪裡看到從最高到最低的？

No.

不。

I think as we have indicated here, we see the strongest growth opportunities and growth in Asia.

我認為，正如我們在這裡指出的那樣，我們看到亞洲擁有最強勁的成長機會和成長空間。

You have, of course, China, where we are also taking market share with Chinese OEMs here that continue to strengthen our already leading market position there.

當然還有中國，我們也正在透過中國原始設備製造商佔領中國市場份額，這將繼續鞏固我們在中國已經領先的市場地位。

And of course in the rest of Asia also, you have strong contribution from India where we not only see the LVP growing, but also the content is growing there.

當然在亞洲其他地區也同樣如此，印度的貢獻非常強勁，我們不僅看到 LVP 的成長，而且那裡的內容也在成長。

And then of course we have, I would say, Europe in a challenging situation and also, I would say, North America here when we look at LVP growth in general there.

當然，我想說的是，歐洲面臨嚴峻的形勢，而且，當我們看北美的 LVP 整體成長情況時，我也想說這一點。

So yes, I think it's a little bit the same picture as we have seen this year here.

是的，我認為這與我們今年看到的情況有點相似。

So the trend continues more.

因此這種趨勢還會持續下去。

It's super encouraging.

這非常令人鼓舞。

I know it's hard with qualitative, but it's nice to hear China towards the top implies that growth over market there is turning back quite positive, and you mentioned that.

我知道定性很難，但很高興聽到中國邁向頂峰意味著那裡的市場成長正在回暖，相當積極，你也提到了這一點。

Second question on some of the weakness in North America and Europe, is that where the OEM mix also is the sort of the -- when you mentioned the minus 1 where we should think about the impact the most, the independent forecasters 2 of the Detroit 3, down sort of low- to mid-single digits, the German 3 in Europe, it's going to be probably a tougher year, given NEV regulations.

第二個問題是關於北美和歐洲的一些弱點，OEM 組合也是這樣的——當您提到減 1 時，我們應該考慮最大的影響，獨立預測者預測底特律三巨頭中的 2 家，下降了低到中等個位數，歐洲的德國三巨頭，考慮到 NEV 法規，今年可能會是更艱難的一年。

Again, is there less secular growth in North America and Europe?

那麼，北美和歐洲的長期經濟成長是否放緩了呢？

Or is it really more a mix issue for 2025 in those two regions?

或者對這兩個地區來說，2025 年的問題其實是混合的？

No, I think, I mean, it's very much related to, I would say, the overall, I would say, economic situation in those regions.

不，我認為，我的意思是，這與這些地區的整體經濟狀況密切相關。

So I mean it's the LVP production per se, that is the biggest challenge there.

所以我的意思是 LVP 生產本身就是最大的挑戰。

So no, nothing specific there on an OEM level.

所以，OEM 層面上沒有什麼具體的東西。

I would say it's more related to what was mentioned here before around uncertainty on drivelines from the end consumer, the overall affordability from the end consumer and so forth.

我想說的是，這更多是與之前提到的有關，例如最終消費者對傳動系統的不確定性、最終消費者的整體承受能力等等。

So holding it down.

所以堅持下去。

And of course, when it comes to export out of these regions also the competitiveness, you could say.

當然，談到這些地區的出口，你也可以說具有競爭力。

Vijay Rakesh, Mizuho.

瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh。

Just a quick question.

這只是一個簡單的問題。

When you look at the 2% organic growth, I was wondering what you're embedding in terms of any potential tariffs looks like coming down the pipe here in Canada, tariffs on the Mexico side or how that impact to the 2025 LVP or even the EV mandate piece, how do you -- what are we embedding in that assumption?

當您看到 2% 的有機成長率時，我想知道您在考慮加拿大即將徵收的任何潛在關稅、墨西哥徵收的關稅，或者這對 2025 年低碳排放目標 (LVP) 甚至電動車強制要求將產生怎樣的影響時，您如何——我們在該假設中嵌入了什麼？

Yes.

是的。

No, I would say, I mean there is no tariff assumptions included in the guidance for 2025 here.

不，我想說，這裡的 2025 年指引中沒有包含關稅假設。

Basically for reason, it's very difficult to have a view on it.

基本上，出於理性，很難對此發表看法。

It's many different scenarios you can think about the level of tariffs, the length of the tariffs as an example.

您可以考慮許多不同的情況，例如關稅水平、關稅期限等。

So that is not included in the outlook here.

因此這不包括在這裡的展望中。

It's something we are following very closely.

我們正在密切關注此事。

And as we said here, in terms of our own impact potentially there, we will start negotiating with the customer immediately about passing that on.

正如我們在這裡所說的那樣，就我們自身可能產生的影響而言，我們將立即開始與客戶進行談判，以將此影響轉嫁出去。

And then if the impact it may have on the demand from the end consumer, we have no detail around at this point in time.

那麼，如果它對最終消費者的需求產生影響，我們目前還不清楚具體細節。

Got it.

知道了。

And then on China, definitely encouraging to see that you're focusing on that.

然後談到中國，看到您關注中國，絕對令人鼓舞。

When you look at the CPV in 2024, like approximately where there is average out and just wondering how much of a step-up you would see on the average CPV, let's say, on 2025.

當您查看 2024 年的 CPV 時，大約會發現平均值，並且想知道在 2025 年，平均 CPV 會增加多少。

Actually, the CPV in China went down year-over-year, 2023 to 2024 slightly.

實際上，2023 年至 2024 年，中國的 CPV 年比略有下降。

And that was mostly due to the market mix that we saw, where as we said before, these scrappage premiums and so on have favored more lower-end vehicles.

這主要是由於我們看到的市場組合，正如我們之前所說，這些報廢溢價等有利於更多低端車輛。

So with that, we have to actually see -- saw that the overall content per vehicle in the China market went down year-over-year, but we expect this to reverse in 2025.

因此，我們必須實際看到——中國市場每輛車的整體內容逐年下降，但我們預計這種情況將在 2025 年逆轉。

And the trend in the market is, of course, to gradually increase the content in the vehicles in general in all the different segments here.

當然，市場的趨勢是逐步增加各不同領域的車輛內容。

So I would say, this is a more temporary nature as a result of the shift in the OEM mix, so to speak.

所以我想說，這只是由於 OEM 組合轉變而產生的暫時現象。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hampus Engellau, Handelsbanken.

漢堡商業銀行。

Two questions for me.

我有兩個問題。

I'm sorry to come back on the LVP -- it's just that when you look at your outlook, is it based on what your talks with the OEMs or S&P because I think S&P has included a 10% tariff for the US.

很抱歉再次談論 LVP 問題——只是當您審視您的前景時，它是基於您與 OEM 還是標準普爾的談判，因為我認為標準普爾對美國徵收了 10% 的關稅。

And at the same time, we have a lot of ongoing in Europe with maybe a massive program on the incentives for battery electrics and also changing the regulation on not putting penalties directly on the OEMs that will fail on the 93.6 MG and maybe having that measured over three years in average.

同時，我們在歐洲也有很多正在進行的項目，可能包括一項針對電池電動車的大規模激勵計劃，同時也在修改法規，不再對 93.6 MG 出現故障的原始設備製造商直接處以罰款，並且可能對三年內的平均值進行測量。

It's just interesting to hear your moving parts on being on par with S&P on 0.5 LVP.

聽到你們在 0.5 LVP 上與標準普爾持平的舉動很有趣。

That's my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

Second question is more on -- if you could talk a little bit about content per vehicle in India?

第二個問題是關於—您能談談印度每輛車的內容嗎？

I know you have a market share there and what's happening with this commitment by the OEMs?

我知道你們在那裡佔有一定市場份額，那麼 OEM 的承諾如何呢？

Thank you, Hampus.

謝謝你，Hampus。

On the LVP outlook and what we base it on, I mean, as always, we -- in the short next coming weeks, months, we adjust it maybe with what -- we adjusted with our own insights there.

關於 LVP 前景以及我們以此為基礎的觀點，我的意思是，與往常一樣，在接下來的幾週或幾個月內，我們可能會根據自己的見解進行調整。

But when I look at the total year-on-year on the 0.5% negative that we are mentioning here is I will say is mainly based on the LVP-based on the S&P Global here.

但是，當我查看我們在此提到的同比總體下降 0.5% 時，我會說這主要是基於標準普爾全球指數的 LVP。

So we have not, as I mentioned before here, made our own judgment here on potential impact on tariffs and so on.

因此，正如我之前提到的，我們還沒有對關稅等的潛在影響做出自己的判斷。

So in the extent it is included in the S&P is there, but we have not massaged it on our side here.

因此，它在一定程度上被納入標準普爾指數，但我們並沒有對其進行修改。

So as we said, we don't have a better crystal ball here than anybody else.

正如我們所說，我們沒有比別人更好的水晶球。

And I think when it comes to India, I mean, we see that continue to improve.

我認為，就印度而言，我們看到情況持續改善。

Overall, in 2024, it was around $120.

總體而言，到 2024 年，這一價格將達到 120 美元左右。

For next year, we expect it to raise to close to $140 and onwards here, so even $160 in size here.

對於明年，我們預計這裡的價格將升至接近 140 美元甚至更高，甚至達到 160 美元。

So what we have alluded to before here about the growth opportunities in India we see both the LVP and CPV contributing to this.

因此，我們之前提到印度的成長機會，我們看到 LVP 和 CPV 都為此做出了貢獻。

And with our 60% market share in India, we are well positioned to capture this.

我們在印度擁有 60% 的市場份額，因此我們完全有能力佔領這個市場。

And it's 4% of -- India stands for 4% of our sales, which is basically equal to the South Korean market here.

印度占我們銷售額的 4%，基本上相當於這裡的韓國市場。

Thanks very much.

非常感謝。

(technical difficulty).

（技術難度）。

My first question would be great if you could share a more specific reading on the exit rate for call-off accuracy in Q4.

我的第一個問題是，如果您能分享有關第四季度取消準確度的退出率的更具體讀數，那就太好了。

It looks like it picks up quite nicely.

看起來進展得相當順利。

And how that compares to the level that is built into the '25 guidance.

這與 25 指南中規定的水平相比如何。

And then my second question just goes back to the point on favorable ForEx transactional effects.

然後我的第二個問題又回到了關於有利的外匯交易效應的問題。

I know, Fred, you don't want to give a very specific guide on that.

我知道，弗雷德，你不想對此給予非常具體的指導。

But does that imply that you see a net tailwind at an EBIT level?

但這是否意味著您在息稅前利潤水準上看到了淨順風？

Or is -- you're just referring to some kind of an offset against the top line ForEx headwinds that you're expecting?

或 — — 您只是指的是某種抵銷您預期的外匯頂線逆風的措施？

Yes.

是的。

So on the exit rate in terms of call-off stability, so we -- as you see in the graph there, we were at around 94% in the fourth quarter, and we saw a good development in Europe, Americas and also in rest of Asia, whereas China continues to be at that, say, lower reliability levels.

因此，就退出率（以停機穩定性而言）而言，正如您在圖表中看到的那樣，我們在第四季度達到了 94% 左右，並且我們看到歐洲、美洲以及亞洲其他地區都取得了良好的發展，而中國仍然處於較低的可靠性水平。

And as we indicated here, we believe that 2025 on average should be at a better level than '24 on average.

正如我們在此指出的，我們認為 2025 年的平均值應該比 2024 年的平均值要好。

So that it continues to be somewhere between 90%, 95% range, which we believe, I think, is encouraging.

因此它繼續保持在 90% 到 95% 之間的某個範圍內，我們相信這是令人鼓舞的。

And Michael, can you ask your second question again?

邁克爾，你能再問一次你的第二個問題嗎？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Thanks for that.

謝謝。

Just back to the point on transactional effects for ForEx.

回到 ForEx 交易效果的話題。

Does that statement or that guide imply that you see a net tailwind at an EBIT level from transactional effects?

該聲明或指南是否暗示您看到交易效應在息稅前利潤水準上出現淨順風？

Or is it meant to be just an offset against the top line ForEx headwind that you're seeing?

或者這是否僅僅是為了抵消您所看到的外匯收入逆風？

I mean -- yes, as I said, I don't want to guide honestly, transactional effect for the full year.

我的意思是 - 是的，正如我所說，我不想誠實地指導全年的交易效果。

But when what we saw in the fourth quarter was a very positive development, obviously, on the US dollar to Mexican peso development with our cost base in peso that had around $12 million positive transactional effect for us.

但是，我們在第四季度看到的是一個非常積極的發展，顯然，美元兌墨西哥比索的發展，以我們的比索成本基礎，為我們帶來了約 1200 萬美元的積極交易效應。

But then that was offset by -- I already mentioned the currency pairings with the Japanese yen against the Thai baht, the US dollar against the Korean won, and then they were importing euro-denominated products into Mexico, and they all roughly had about a $4 million negative effect.

但隨後這些影響被抵消了——我已經提到過日圓兌泰銖、美元兌韓元的貨幣配對，然後他們將以歐元計價的產品進口到墨西哥，這些都產生了約 400 萬美元的負面影響。

So that almost completely offset the positive effect we saw from the peso.

所以這幾乎完全抵消了我們從比索看到的正面影響。

And so it's -- depending on how this currency moves , you have the assumptions on our guidance slide here, what we're basing the forecast on and then we'll have to see where the FX rates end up.

所以這取決於貨幣的走勢，你可以在我們的指導幻燈片中看到一些假設，我們的預測也以此為基礎，然後我們必須看看外匯匯率最終會走向何處。

Okay, clear.

好的，清楚了。

Fred, if I could just sneak in one final one.

弗雷德，我可以偷偷說最後一個嗎？

Just in terms of your expectations around the phasing of improved outperformance in China, I think previously, you're a little more confident that you could start to see some outperformance already at the beginning of 2025.

就您對中國業績逐步改善的預期而言，我認為您之前更有信心在 2025 年初就能開始看到一些優異表現。

Is that still the case?

現在還是這樣嗎？

Or is it more an H2 situation?

或是更像 H2 的情況？

No.

不。

I think what we have said here is that it will gradually improve here, and we it's always difficult to be exact on the timing here due to, as you said, I mean, here we're seeing a real push due to the incentives that are in place.

我認為我們在這裡所說的是，它會逐漸改善，而且我們總是很難準確地確定時間，因為正如你所說，我的意思是，我們在這裡看到了由於現有激勵措施而產生的真正推動力。

But we feel confident about the shift in trend here as a result of the increased share of the orders that we are taking.

但由於我們承接的訂單份額增加，我們對趨勢的轉變充滿信心。

So we are on the right track and have to come back on the exact details as they play come through.

因此，我們走在正確的軌道上，並且必須在比賽中回顧準確的細節。

Super.

極好的。

Thank you very much

非常感謝

George Galliers, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的喬治‧加利爾斯 (George Galliers)。

I had two questions, if I may.

如果可以的話，我有兩個問題。

The first one just related to order intake on Slides 11 and 12.

第一個僅與投影片 11 和 12 上的訂單量相關。

It's very helpful on Slide 12 to see the share of order take, which is accruing to new OEMs.

第 12 頁的訂單份額非常有幫助，這些訂單來自新的 OEM。

But if I apply that to the dollar order amount on Slide 11, it would seem to imply that the absolute order intake from new OEMs was down year-over-year.

但如果我將其應用到投影片 11 上的美元訂單金額，似乎意味著來自新 OEM 的絕對訂單量比去年同期下降。

Is that correct?

那正確嗎？

And if yes, could you perhaps explain why that is?

如果是，您能解釋一下原因嗎？

Is it because of the new OEMs also reconsidering product offerings?

是因為新的 OEM 也重新考慮了產品供應？

Or is it related to the point you make around some of the Chinese OEMs having shorter lifetimes for their programs?

或者這是否與您提到的一些中國 OEM 的程式壽命較短有關？

The second question I had was with respect to shareholder returns.

我的第二個問題是關於股東回報。

I appreciate the current buyback mandate and what is outstanding.

我很讚賞目前的回購授權以及尚未完成的部分。

But given the implied EBIT forecast for this year and also the guide on cash flow, is it reasonable to expect a step-up in shareholder returns once more in 2025?

但考慮到今年的隱含息稅前利潤預測以及現金流指南，預期 2025 年股東回報率再次上升是否合理？

If we look at the last three years, I think on average the step-up has been around $200 million per annum.

如果我們回顧過去三年，我認為平均每年的增幅約為 2 億美元。

Is there any reason not to assume that a similar step-up might be possible this year?

有什麼理由不相信今年也會出現類似的增幅呢？

And if it is, can you give us any insight into the split.

如果是的話，您能否向我們介紹一下此次分裂的情況？

It looks like the dividend has remained flat around the $220 million mark should we expect any step-up to be more focused on buybacks and dividends?

看起來股息一直保持在 2.2 億美元左右的水平，我們是否應該預期任何增加都會更專注於回購和股息？

Let me start -- thank you.

讓我開始吧——謝謝。

Let me start with the order intake there I mean, the factors here when you look at the value of order intake is the factors we mentioned here that we see mainly in the, let's call it, the western world here, pushing out in time the launches of new vehicle and thereby also the RFQs.

讓我從那裡的訂單量開始吧，我的意思是，當您查看訂單量的價值時，這裡的因素是我們在此處提到的因素，我們主要看到的是，我們稱之為西方世界，及時推出新車，從而也推出 RFQ。

And when it comes to the Chinese OEMs, it is as we said, also there, the shortening lifetime.

對於中國原始設備製造商來說，正如我們所說，其使用壽命也正在縮短。

And those two main factors that is adding up to the difference there.

這兩個主要因素造成了差異。

I feel that we have an order intake here in order to support our ambition here of safeguarding the market share that we have, which is around 45% as we move forward.

我覺得我們在這裡的訂單量是為了支持我們實現維護現有市場份額的雄心，未來我們的市場份額將保持在 45% 左右。

And very encouraging in all this is that we also see the strong growth we have in the Chinese OEMs here that we have also described in detail here.

最令人鼓舞的是，我們也看到了中國原始設備製造商的強勁成長，我們也在這裡詳細描述了這一點。

So this is more reflecting the dynamics in the industry right now than anything else.

因此，這比其他任何事情都更能反映當前的行業動態。

When it comes to the return to the shareholders here, as you know we can't communicate anything around what we might do or not do in this regard, more than what we have said in the past.

當談到對股東的回報時，如你所知，我們無法透露任何有關我們在這方面可能做什麼或不做什麼的信息，除了我們過去所說的。

And that is that we have a very strong ambition here to be a shareholder-friendly company by returning liquidity to our shareholders.

這就是說，我們有一個強烈的願望，那就是透過向股東返還流動性，成為一家股東友善公司。

I think in the last couple of years here shows that we are serious about that.

我認為過去幾年的情況表明我們對此是認真的。

And what we also have indicated about the ability to generate liquidity going forward is also, I would say, something that supports that statement going forward.

我們也指出了未來產生流動性的能力，我想說，這也是支持這項聲明的一種方式。

We have the mandates we have today and how and when we are using that.

我們有今天的權力，也知道如何和何時使用這些權力。

We have to report afterwards.

我們得事後報告。

And as you know, we post on our homepage there on a weekly basis on a frequency of a weekly basis there.

如您所知，我們每週都會在我們的主頁上發布文章。

Under direct dividend, we have the ambition to have a stable and increasing dividend in that.

在直接股息方面，我們的目標是獲得穩定且不斷成長的股息。

So yes, I think that there's as much we can say around that.

是的，我認為我們可以就此說很多。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Agnieszka Vilela, Nordea.

阿格涅什卡·維萊拉 (Agnieszka Vilela)，Nordea。

Perfect.

完美的。

I have two questions if I may.

如果可以的話我有兩個問題。

Starting with your market share, it was 44% in 2024 margin marginally, lower than in '23.

從您的市佔率開始，2024 年的利潤率略微為 44%，低於 23 年。

Can you just say, what was the reason for that?

你能說一下那是什麼原因造成的嗎？

And also do you expect a further decline in the market share in '25?

您預計 25 年的市佔率會進一步下降嗎？

No.

不。

Thank you.

謝謝。

As I said, I feel comfortable with the order book we have to support our market share around 45%.

正如我所說，我對我們的訂單量感到滿意，這些訂單可以支撐我們 45% 左右的市場份額。

The difference you see between '23 and '24 is very marginal.

'23 和 '24 之間的差異非常小。

And the main reason for that is actually that we have the strong growth of BYD in China where we and no one else is selling to them as they have their in-house manufacturer of safety products.

而主要原因實際上是比亞迪在中國的強勁成長，由於比亞迪擁有自己的安全產品製造商，所以我們而不是其他任何人向他們銷售產品。

But we are selling, for example, inflator to them.

但是，我們正在向他們出售諸如充氣機之類的產品。

And that's not included in our market share, and that I would say it's a meaningful volume to them.

這還不包括在我們的市場份額中，我想說這對他們來說是一個有意義的數量。

So if you would count that, a little different.

所以如果你把這一點算上的話，情況就有些不同了。

But -- so in my book here, we are standing stable around 45%.

但是——所以在我看來，我們的成長率穩定在 45% 左右。

Understood.

明白了。

Fair point.

公平地說。

And then also you mentioned that Q1 will be a challenging quarter in terms of the operating margin.

然後您也提到，就營業利潤率而言，第一季將是一個充滿挑戰的季度。

And when I look at your previous performance, usually, the margin decreased by some 4 percentage points to 5 percentage points sequentially in Q1.

當我查看您之前的表現時，通常會發現第一季的利潤率會較上季下降約 4 個百分點到 5 個百分點。

So should we expect a kind of similar decrease now or maybe even more pressure due to somewhat weaker Q-on-Q car production?

那麼，我們現在是否應該預期會出現類似的下降，或者由於汽車產量環比下降而出現更大的壓力？

I don't want to guide your specifically on the first quarter.

我不想針對第一季給你具體的指導。

But I mean, if you look at what have been the drivers for the margin decline in the past couple of years, where it's been around 5 percentage points from Q4 to Q1.

但我的意思是，如果你看看過去幾年利潤率下降的原因，從第四季到第一季利潤率下降了約 5 個百分點。

It's been the lower LVP, as we mentioned during the presentation, that was over the last three years, a decline of 7% sequentially quarter-over-quarter.

正如我們在演示中提到的那樣，過去三年的 LVP 一直較低，環比下降了 7%。

Right now, we're seeing a decline of 14%, so twice that number.

現在，我們看到下降了 14%，是這個數字的兩倍。

And that, of course, would also have a higher impact on our operating leverage and also the operating income.

當然，這也會對我們的營業槓桿和營業收入產生更大的影響。

Then it's the very traditional or typical seasonality that we have on the engineering income side.

那麼這就是我們在工程收入方面非常傳統或典型的季節性。

That's not going to be any different this year than it has been in previous years.

今年的情況與前幾年沒有什麼不同。

And then also what we've seen in the last year is the combination of the fallaway of lump sum recoveries that we then need to reinstate throughout the year and inflation coming in, and that combined effect is lower this year than it has been in previous years.

而且，我們在去年看到的是，我們需要在全年恢復一次性回收，但同時又出現了通貨膨脹，這兩種因素的綜合作用在今年比前幾年要低。

But if you take all of the three combined, maybe that's not so dissimilar to what we've seen previously because of the larger LVP decline.

但如果將這三者結合起來，也許與我們之前看到的情況並沒有什麼不同，因為 LVP 的下降幅度更大。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The Q&A session is now closed.

問答環節現已結束。

I will now hand back to Mikael Bratt for closing remarks.

現在我將把發言權交還給麥可‧布拉特 (Mikael Bratt)，請他作最後發言。

Thank you, Ralf.

謝謝你，拉爾夫。

I am pleased to invite you to our Capital Markets Day on June 3, 2025, and I am looking forward to sharing with you how we see our way forward.

我很高興邀請您參加我們 2025 年 6 月 3 日的資本市場日，並期待與您分享我們前進的道路。

More details to be announced shortly.

更多細節即將公佈。

Before we conclude today's call, I want to emphasize our commitment to achieving our target of around 12% adjusted operating margins.

在我們結束今天的電話會議之前，我想先強調一下我們致力於實現調整後營業利潤率約 12% 的目標。

Our focus remains on structural cost reduction in innovation, quality, and sustainability.

我們的重點仍然是降低創新、品質和永續性方面的結構性成本。

Despite significant market challenges such as fluctuating demand and lower LVP in important markets, we continued our strong performance.

儘管面臨需求波動、重要市場 LVP 較低等重大市場挑戰，我們仍維持強勁表現。

The positive trend in our cash flow and balance sheet reinforce our dedication to delivering strong shareholder return.

我們的現金流量和資產負債表的正面趨勢增強了我們致力於實現強勁股東回報的決心。

Our first quarter call is scheduled for Wednesday, April 16, 2025.

我們的第一季電話會議定於 2025 年 4 月 16 日星期三舉行。

Thank you all for joining today's call.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

We truly value your continued interest in Autoliv.

我們非常重視您對 Autoliv 的持續關注。

Until next time, drive safely.

下次見，祝您駕駛平安。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

Thank you all for participating.

感謝大家的參與。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路了。

Thank you.

謝謝。