Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome everyone to our second quarter 2024 earnings call.

歡迎大家參加我們的 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。

On this call, we have our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin and me, Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations.

出席本次電話會議的有我們的總裁兼執行長 Mikael Bratt、我們的財務長 Fredrik Westin 和我、投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。

During today's earnings call, Mikael and Frederic will, among other things, provide an overview of our sales, earnings, and cash flow development in the quarter how our strong balance sheet and asset return rates support a continued high level of shareholder returns.

在今天的財報電話會議上，Mikael 和 Frederic 將概述我們本季的銷售、收益和現金流發展情況，以及我們強勁的資產負債表和資產回報率如何支持持續高水準的股東回報。

They will outline the expected sequential margin improvement in the second half of 2024 towards our targets and the continued improvement of our business with domestic Chinese OEMs.

他們將概述 2024 年下半年預計利潤率持續改善的目標，以及我們與中國國內 OEM 廠商業務的持續改善。

And we will also, as usual, provide an update on our general business and market conditions.

我們還將像往常一樣提供有關我們整體業務和市場狀況的最新資訊。

We will then remain available to respond to your questions.

然後我們將隨時回答您的問題。

And as usual, the slides are available on autoliv.com.

像往常一樣，這些幻燈片可以在 autoliv.com 上找到。

Turning to the next slide, we have the Safe Harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows.

轉向下一張投影片，我們有安全港聲明，它是本簡報的組成部分，包括隨後的問答。

During the presentation, we will reference some non-US GAAP measures.

在演示過程中，我們將參考一些非美國公認會計準則衡量標準。

The reconciliations of historical US GAAP to non-US GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly earnings release available on autoliv.com. and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC.

我們在 autoliv.com 上發布的季度收益報告中披露了歷史美國公認會計準則與非美國公認會計準則衡量標準的調節表。以及將提交給 SEC 的 10-Q 報告。

Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 PM Central European Time.

最後，我應該提到，本次電話會議預計在歐洲中部時間下午 3:00 結束。

So please follow a limit of two questions per person.

因此，請遵守每人提出兩個問題的限制。

I now hand over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt

我現在將工作交給我們的執行長 Mikael Bratt

.

。

Thank you Anders.

謝謝安德斯。

Looking on the next slide.

看下一張投影片。

I would like to thank all our employees for managing through a challenging quarter with lower and more volatile light vehicle production than expected.

我要感謝我們所有的員工度過了充滿挑戰的季度，輕型汽車產量低於預期且波動更大。

Profitability improved both year-over-year and sequentially, despite lower net sales driven by successful execution of cost reductions and pricing.

儘管成功執行成本削減和定價導致淨銷售下降，但獲利能力較去年同期和較上季均有所改善。

I am pleased that we have been able to settle cost compensation claims with the majority of our customers and target to close most of the remaining claims in Q3.

我很高興我們能夠與大多數客戶解決成本賠償索賠，並計劃在第三季結束大部分剩餘索賠。

We are making good progress towards our previously announced intention of reducing our indirect workforce by up to 2000 and related savings of USD50 million in 2024.

我們正在朝著先前宣布的計劃取得良好進展，即到 2024 年減少最多 2000 名間接員工並節省 5000 萬美元的相關費用。

Sales in all regions in the second quarter developed less favorably than what we had expected, especially in June.

第二季所有地區的銷售發展都低於我們的預期，尤其是 6 月。

This was due to lower light vehicle production with certain key customers following weaker sales and inventory adjustments.

這是由於銷售和庫存調整疲軟導致某些主要客戶的輕型汽車產量下降。

We saw no improvement in call-off volatility compared to first quarter 2024.

與 2024 年第一季相比，我們發現取消波動性並沒有改善。

However, it is encouraging that customer production plans for the third quarter are stronger, indicating that the June weakness should be temporary.

然而，令人鼓舞的是，第三季客戶生產計畫更加強勁，顯示六月的疲軟應該是暫時的。

The lower than expected sales impacted our adjusted operating margin in the quarter with an operating leverage at the higher end of our normal 20% to 30% range.

低於預期的銷售額影響了我們本季調整後的營業利潤率，營業槓桿處於正常 20% 至 30% 範圍的高端。

Cash flow continued to be strong, supporting both a high level of shareholder returns and an improvement of the leverage ratio to 1.2 times.

現金流持續強勁，支持高水準的股東回報和槓桿率提高至1.2倍。

Even with shareholder returns of USD250 million in the quarter.

即使本季股東回報為 2.5 億美元。

I am also pleased with a high return on capital employed.

我也對所使用的資本的高回報率感到滿意。

In addition to the credit ratings from S&P, we have now added a second credit rating as Moody's on July 17 signed a long term credit rating of Baa1 with stable outlook.

除了標準普爾的信用評級外，我們現在又增加了第二個信用評級，穆迪於 7 月 17 日簽署了 Baa1 的長期信用評級，展望為穩定。

Although we adjusted our full year 2024 guidance down mirroring softer global light vehicle production, we remain focused on delivering on our around 12% adjusted operating margin target.

儘管我們根據全球輕型汽車產量疲軟的情況下調了 2024 年全年指引，但我們仍然專注於實現調整後 12% 左右的營業利潤率目標。

While the positive development of our cash flow and balance sheet supports our continued commitment to a high level of shareholder returns.

我們的現金流量和資產負債表的積極發展支持了我們對高水準股東回報的持續承諾。

Illustrating our close cooperation with innovative and fast-growing Chinese OEMs, we have signed a strategic cooperation agreement with XPENG AEROHT, Chinese leading flying core innovator to pioneer safety solutions for future mobility.

我們與中國領先的飛行核心創新者小鵬航空簽署了戰略合作協議，為未來出行提供安全解決方案，這體現了我們與創新和快速發展的中國整車廠的密切合作。

Looking now on the market development in the second quarter on the next slide.

現在在下一張投影片展望第二季的市場發展。

The global light vehicle production for the second quarter came in more than 3-percentage-point lower than expected in the beginning of the quarter according to S&P Global.

標準普爾全球公司(S&P Global)的數據顯示，第二季全球輕型汽車產量比本季初的預期低3個百分點以上。

The largest reductions were in Europe, Japan and in China.

減少幅度最大的是歐洲、日本和中國。

In part, the reductions reflect a focus from OEMs on inventory management due to recent sales weakness in China and increasing headwinds for certain OEMs.

在某種程度上，這種減少反映了由於近期中國銷售疲軟以及某些原始設備製造商面臨的不利因素日益增加，原始設備製造商對庫存管理的關注。

As a result, we continued to experience high call of volatility throughout the quarter, especially in June.

因此，我們在整個季度（尤其是 6 月）繼續經歷高波動性。

The lower volumes and the higher volatility, together with a negative customer mix had a substantial impact on our top line and earnings, especially in June when our sales was 12% lower than expected at the beginning of the quarter.

銷量下降和波動性加大，加上負面的客戶組合對我們的營收和收益產生了重大影響，特別是在 6 月份，當時我們的銷售額比本季初的預期低 12%。

However, we expect this to be a temporary headwind as customer production plans are developing better so far in the third quarter.

然而，我們預計這將是暫時的阻力，因為第三季迄今客戶生產計畫進展順利。

We will talk about the market development more in detail in the presentation.

我們將在演示中更詳細地討論市場發展。

Looking now on our cost improvements on the net slide.

現在看看我們在網路投影片上的成本改進。

We continue to generate broad-based improvement in key areas.

我們繼續在關鍵領域取得廣泛的改進。

Our direct labor productivity continues to trend up, supported by the implementation of our strategic initiatives, including automization and digitalization.

在自動化和數位化等策略性措施實施的支持下，我們的直接勞動生產力持續上升。

Year-over-year, we have reduced our direct, production, personnel by

與去年同期相比，我們的直接人員、生產人員和人員減少了

[1400].

[1400]。

Our gross margin improved by 130 basis points from the first quarter and the year-over-year.

我們的毛利率較第一季和年比提高了 130 個基點。

The improvement was mainly the result of the higher direct labor efficiency, reductions within the indirect workforce and customer compensations.

這項改善主要是由於直接勞動力效率提高、間接勞動力和客戶補償的減少。

As a consequence of the lower than expected sales, RD&E and SG&A in relation to sales increased by 30 basis points versus Q2 2023.

由於銷售額低於預期，與銷售額相關的 RD&E 和 SG&A 較 2023 年第二季增加了 30 個基點。

Now looking on financials in more detail on the next slide.

現在在下一張投影片上更詳細地了解財務狀況。

Sales in the second quarter decreased by 1% year over year on unfavorable currency translation effects, lower light vehicle production and a negative regional and customer light vehicle production mix.

由於不利的貨幣換算影響、輕型汽車產量下降以及區域和客戶輕型汽車生產組合的負面影響，第二季銷售量較去年同期下降 1%。

The adjusted operating income for Q2 increased by 4% to $221 million from USD212 million last year.

第二季調整後營業收入成長 4%，從去年的 2.12 億美元增至 2.21 億美元。

The adjusted operating margin increased by 50 basis points to 8.5% despite lower sales.

儘管銷售額下降，調整後的營業利潤率仍成長了 50 個基點，達到 8.5%。

Operating cash flow was $340 million, which was USD39 million lower compared to the unusually strong second quarter last year.

營運現金流為 3.4 億美元，比異常強勁的去年第二季減少了 3,900 萬美元。

Q2 last year was positively affected by a reversal of negative working capital effects.

去年第二季受到營運資本負面效應逆轉的正面影響。

Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide.

現在在下一張投影片中更詳細地了解我們的銷售成長。

Our consolidated net sales was USD2.6 billion.

我們的綜合淨銷售額為 26 億美元。

This was approximately USD30 million lower than a year earlier, driven by negative currency translation effects of $49 million, lower light vehicle production and lower and level of out of period costs compensation, partly offset by a positive price volume and product mix The negative currency translation effect reduced sales by almost 2% in the quarter.

較上年同期減少約 3,000 萬美元，原因是 4,900 萬美元的負貨幣換算影響、輕型汽車產量下降以及期外成本補償水平較低，但部分被積極的價格量和產品組合所抵消。該季度的銷售額減少了近2%。

Out of period cost compensations contributed with approximately USD6 million in the quarter.

本季期外成本補償貢獻約 600 萬美元。

This was USD24 million lower than in the same period last year, reflecting the lower level of inflation this year out of period compensations are retroactive price adjustments and other compensations that mainly related to our first quarter, but were negotiated in the second quarter.

這比去年同期減少了 2,400 萬美元，反映出今年通膨水準較低，期間補償是追溯價格調整和主要與我們第一季相關但在第二季協商的其他補償。

Looking at the regional sales split, Asia accounted for 37%, Americas for 34%and Europe for 29%.

從地區銷售分佈來看，亞洲佔 37%，美洲佔 34%，歐洲佔 29%。

We outline our organic sales growth compared to light vehicle production on the next slight.

我們概述了與輕型汽車產量相比的有機銷售成長。

Our sales in the quarter came in lower than expected as light vehicle production in all major regions was lower than predicted.

由於所有主要地區的輕型汽車產量均低於預期，我們本季的銷售量低於預期。

According to S&P, global light vehicle production declined by 1% year over year in the quarter.

標準普爾的數據顯示，本季全球輕型汽車產量年減 1%。

This was more than 3-percentage-points worse than expected at the beginning of the quarter.

這比本季初的預期差了 3 個百分點以上。

We estimate that the geographical light vehicle production mix had a 119 basis points negative impact on our outperformance.

我們估計，輕型汽車生產地理結構對我們的卓越表現產生了 119 個基點的負面影響。

Despite this, that's some key customer were adjusting inventories, our organic sales growth outperformed global light vehicle production by 140 basis points.

儘管如此，一些關鍵客戶正在調整庫存，我們的有機銷售成長超過全球輕型汽車產量 140 個基點。

We continued to outperform light vehicle production significantly in Japan, rest of Asia and in Europe fueled by product launches and pricing.

在產品推出和定價的推動下，我們在日本、亞洲其他地區和歐洲的輕型汽車產量持續大幅領先。

The outperformance in rest of Asia was driven by South Korea and India.

亞洲其他地區的優異表現是由韓國和印度推動的。

For India, we expect a strong outperformance in the second half of the year from a number of launches earlier in the third quarter -- early in the third quarter.

對於印度來說，我們預計，由於第三季早些時候（第三季初）推出的一系列產品，印度下半年的表現將強勁。

In Americas, we underperformed slightly as some key customers reduced production.

在美洲，我們的表現略有不佳，因為一些主要客戶減少了產量。

In China, the market developed unfavorably with certain brands and models with low alternate content growing strongly while some of our key global customers production declined significantly leading to 7-percentage-points underperformance in China.

在中國，市場發展不利，某些替代含量低的品牌和型號成長強勁，而我們一些主要的全球客戶產量大幅下降，導致中國市場表現不佳7個百分點。

On the next slide, we look a bit closer on the Chinese market and our development there.

在下一張投影片中，我們將更仔細地了解中國市場以及我們在那裡的發展。

We are rapidly strengthening our position with fast growing domestic Chinese OEMs.

我們正在迅速鞏固我們在快速成長的中國國內原始設備製造商中的地位。

It has been a long road for China's domestic producers to really rival global vehicle manufacturers.

中國國內生產商要真正與全球汽車製造商競爭還有很長的路要走。

With China taking the lead in the production of electric vehicles and with the high rate of new domestic Chinese car models coming to market, we have seen a major pivot towards domestic brands in the Chinese market.

隨著中國在電動車生產方面處於領先地位，以及中國國產新車型的高上市率，我們看到中國市場的國產品牌正在發生重大轉變。

As a result, Chinese OEMs have grown their share of the Chinese light-vehicle production from around 40% in the beginning of 2022 to close to 55% in the second quarter of this year.

因此，中國整車廠在中國輕型汽車產量中的份額從 2022 年初的 40% 左右增長到今年第二季度的近 55%。

As a result of our strong order intake in recent years, we have continued to expand our business with domestic Chinese OEMs.

由於近年來我們的訂單量強勁，我們不斷擴大與中國國內整車廠的業務。

They accounted for 38% of our Chinese sales in the Q2 2024, up from 20% in the beginning of 2022.

2024 年第二季度，它們占我們中國銷售額的 38%，高於 2022 年初的 20%。

In Q2 '24, our sales to this group increased by 39% versus a year ago and by 25% versus Q1 2024.

2024 年第二季度，我們對該族群的銷售額較去年同期成長了 39%，較 2024 年第一季成長了 25%。

As safety content will weaken, CPV is on track to grow by around 10% from 2022 to 2024 for both global and domestic Chinese OEMs.

由於安全內容將減弱，從 2022 年到 2024 年，全球和中國國內 OEM 廠商的 CPV 預計將成長 10% 左右。

Due to the large difference in CPV between the two groups and the fast growing market share for Chinese OEMs, the average CPV is expected to grow by only 5% during the same period.

由於兩組之間的CPV差異較大，且中國整車廠的市佔率快速成長，預計同期平均CPV僅成長5%。

This has a negative impact on our ability to outperform light vehicle production in China currently.

這對我們目前超越中國輕型汽車生產的能力產生了負面影響。

Although incentive programs such as subsidies for ICE vehicles, replacement and vehicle financing programs have been implemented to support light vehicle sales, demand remains stagnant in China.

儘管已經實施了內燃機汽車補貼、置換和汽車融資計劃等激勵計劃來支持輕型汽車銷售，但中國的需求仍然停滯不前。

Due to steep competitions between OEMs, a wide-ranging price war has taken place since last year.

由於整車廠之間的競爭激烈，從去年開始就發生了大規模的價格戰。

Therefore, many end consumers have become hesitant to purchase a new vehicle on expectations for further price reductions.

因此，不少終端消費者對新車的購買猶豫不決，因為他們期待價格進一步下調。

However, lately, we have seen signs of moderation of the price war.

然而，最近我們看到價格戰有所緩和的跡象。

The potential impact of the new EU tariffs on Chinese exports remains difficult to assess.

歐盟新關稅對中國出口的潛在影響仍難以評估。

In this context , it is important to understand that a large minority of the Chinese exports on conventional ICE cars to Asia, the Middle East and Africa.

在這種背景下，重要的是要了解中國大部分傳統內燃機汽車出口到亞洲、中東和非洲。

However, we see global OEMs relocating production from China to Europe and Chinese OEMs accelerating efforts to add production capacity outside of China.

然而，我們看到全球整車廠將生產從中國轉移到歐洲，而中國整車廠正在加速增加中國境外的產能。

Looking at our recent model launches on the next slide.

在下一張投影片上查看我們最近發布的模型。

Although we see some changes to our customers' plans for model launches, we continue to expect a record number of product launches for 2024.

儘管我們看到客戶的車型發布計劃發生了一些變化，但我們仍然預計 2024 年的產品發布數量將創歷史新高。

As can be seen from this slide, six of these models are produced in China, reflecting our strong position with Chinese OEMs as well as with global OEMs producing in China.

從這張投影片中可以看出，其中六款車型是在中國生產的，反映了我們在中國整車廠以及在中國生產的全球整車廠的強勢地位。

The trend towards electrification continues, especially in China.

電氣化趨勢仍在持續，尤其是在中國。

On this slide, all models, but one are being made available as electric versions.

在這張投影片上，所有型號（除一款外）均以電動版本提供。

The models shown here have an outlet content per vehicle from around $130 to over $500.

這裡展示的車型每輛車的折扣內容從大約 130 美元到超過 500 美元不等。

In terms of out of the sales potential, the Nissan Kicks launch is the most significant followed by the Stiletto F9, which is a collaboration between Huawei and

從銷售潛力來看，Nissan Kicks 的推出最為重要，其次是華為與華為合作的 Stiletto F9。

[bike].

[自行車]。

The long-term trend to higher CPV is supported by front center airbags on five of these models, more advanced seatbelts, and pedestrian protection hood lifters.

其中五款車型配備的前排中央安全氣囊、更先進的安全帶和行人保護罩升降器支持了較高 CPV 的長期趨勢。

Now looking at the sustainability highlights on the next slide.

現在來看看下一張投影片上的永續發展亮點。

Guided by our vision of saving more lives, we are taking significant steps towards our sustainability commitments.

在拯救更多生命的願景指引下，我們正在採取重大步驟來實現我們的永續發展承諾。

For example, how to live and the UN road safety fund or collaborating to enhance motorcycle safety.

例如，如何與聯合國道路安全基金或合作加強摩托車安全。

The collaboration support the UN Sustainable Development Goal 3.6, which aims to reduce road traffic [pathologies] and injuries, and the ultimate goal of saving 100,000 lives annually.

此次合作支持聯合國永續發展目標 3.6，旨在減少道路交通[病症]和傷害，以及每年拯救 10 萬人生命的最終目標。

We are also completely phased out Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) that was used in steering wheel production.

我們也完全淘汰了方向盤生產中使用的六氟化硫 (SF6)。

SF6 was our largest source of fugitive emissions that was responsible for around 6% of our two lives total scope one and two emissions in 2023.

SF6 是我們最大的無組織排放源，到 2023 年，它約占我們兩種生活第一類和第二類排放總量的 6%。

We have continued to increase the use of renewable electricity, though additional renewable electricity instruments and further increasing on side solar energy generation capacity.

我們透過增加再生電力設備並進一步增加太陽能發電能力，繼續增加再生電力的使用。

In collaboration with key's supply chain partners, we have developed airbag cushions made from 100% recycled polyester.

我們與 key 的供應鏈合作夥伴合作，開發了由 100% 再生聚酯製成的安全氣囊墊。

Using recycled materials is a crucial step towards our ultimate commitment to reduce emissions across its product range and will contribute to our company's ambition to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions across the supply chain by 2040.

使用回收材料是我們實現減少整個產品系列排放的最終承諾的關鍵一步，並將有助於實現我們公司在 2040 年實現整個供應鏈溫室氣體淨零排放的目標。

I will now hand over to our CFO, Fredrik Westin, who will talk you through the financials on the next slide.

現在我將把時間交給我們的財務長 Fredrik Westin，他將在下一張投影片上向您介紹財務狀況。

Thank you, Mikael.

謝謝你，米凱爾。

For this slide highlights our key figures for the second quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter of 2023.

這張投影片重點介紹了 2024 年第二季與 2023 年第二季相比的關鍵數據。

Our net sales were $2.6 billion.

我們的淨銷售額為 26 億美元。

This was a 1% decrease.

下降了 1%。

Gross profit increased by $28 million or by 6% to $475 million, while the gross margin increased by 1.3-percentage-points to 18.2%.

毛利增加 2,800 萬美元，成長 6%，達到 4.75 億美元，毛利率增加 1.3 個百分點，達到 18.2%。

The adjusted operating income increased from $212 million to $221 million, and the adjusted operating margin increased by 50 basis points to 8.5%.

調整後的營業收入從2.12億美元增加到2.21億美元，調整後的營業利益率增加50個基點至8.5%。

Non-GAAP adjustments amounted to $50 million from capacity alignments and antitrust-related matters.

由於產能調整和反壟斷相關事宜，非 GAAP 調整金額達 5,000 萬美元。

Adjusted earnings per share diluted decreased by $0.05 where the main drivers were $0.13 from higher income taxes and $0.09 from the financial net and nonoperating items, partly offset by $0.07 from higher operating income and $0.1 from the lower number of shares.

調整後稀釋每股收益下降了0.05 美元，其中主要驅動因素是所得稅增加帶來的0.13 美元以及財務淨和非經營項目帶來的0.09 美元，部分被營業收入增加帶來的0.07 美元和股份數量減少帶來的0.1 美元所抵銷。

Our adjusted return on capital employed and return on equity were a solid 22% and 26%, respectively.

我們調整後的已動用資本回報率和股本回報率分別為 22% 和 26%。

We paid a dividend of $0.68 per share in the quarter and repurchased and retired $1.3 million shares for around USD160 million.

本季我們支付了每股 0.68 美元的股息，並以約 1.6 億美元的價格回購並退役了 130 萬美元的股票。

Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide.

現在來看看下一張投影片上調整後的營業收入橋樑。

In the second quarter of 2024, we managed to increase our adjusted operating income despite cost inflation and no volume growth.

2024 年第二季度，儘管成本上漲且銷售量沒有成長，但我們仍設法增加了調整後的營業收入。

This was due to successful execution of cost reductions and cost compensations.

這是由於成本削減和成本補償的成功執行。

Net currency effect was $3 million positive, driven by the Turkish lira, partly offset by the negative effect from the Mexican peso and the Japanese yen.

在土耳其里拉的推動下，淨貨幣效應為 300 萬美元，但部分被墨西哥比索和日圓的負面影響所抵消。

The impact, the impact from raw materials was negligible.

原材料的影響可忽略不計。

Out of period cost compensation of $6 million was $24 million lower than last year, reflecting the lower level of inflation.

期外成本補償為 600 萬美元，比去年減少了 2,400 萬美元，反映出通貨膨脹水準較低。

Cost for SG&A and RD&E net combined was $4 million higher.

SG&A 和 RD&E 淨成本總計高出 400 萬美元。

This was driven by higher SG&A due to several smaller cost items of predominantly temporary nature, such as the UN and road safety fund contribution and higher legal fees.

這是由於幾個主要是臨時性的較小成本項目（例如聯合國和道路安全基金捐款以及更高的法律費用）導致銷售管理費用增加所致。

As a result of our cost-saving activities, the operating leverage, excluding currency effects on the organic sales increase was substantially above our normal 20% to 30% range.

由於我們採取了成本節約活動，營運槓桿（不包括貨幣對有機銷售額成長的影響）遠高於我們正常的 20% 至 30% 範圍。

Looking now on the cash flow, more in detail on the next slide.

現在看看現金流，下一張投影片將詳細介紹。

For the second quarter of 2024, operating cash flow declined by $39 million to $340 million compared to the unusually strong second quarter last year, which was affected by the reversal of the negative working capital effects from the first quarter last year.

2024年第二季度，營運現金流與去年異常強勁的第二季度相比下降了3,900萬美元，至3.4億美元，這是受到去年第一季負面營運資本效應逆轉的影響。

Capital expenditures net increased to $146 million from $124 million last year.

資本支出淨額從去年的 1.24 億美元增至 1.46 億美元。

In relation to sales it was 5.6% this year, up from 4.7% last year.

就銷售額而言，今年為 5.6%，高於去年的 4.7%。

Free cash flow declined by $61 million compared to the same period the prior year, mainly due to the lower operating cash flow.

自由現金流較上年同期下降 6,100 萬美元，主要是由於營運現金流減少。

The last 12 months, cash on cash conversion, defined as free cash flow in relation to the net income was 84%.

過去 12 個月，現金現金轉換（定義為自由現金流與淨利比率）為 84%。

Now looking at our trade working capital developments on the next slide.

現在來看看下一張投影片中我們的貿易營運資金發展。

During the second quarter, trade working capital decreased by $167 million, driven by $104 million in lower receivables, $61 million lower inventory, and $3 million lower accounts payables.

第二季度，貿易營運資本減少了 1.67 億美元，因為應收帳款減少了 1.04 億美元，庫存減少了 6,100 萬美元，應付帳款減少了 300 萬美元。

The lower inventories and receivables were partly due to lower sales towards the end of the quarter.

庫存和應收帳款減少的部分原因是本季末銷售額下降。

Compared to the same period last year, trade working capital decreased from 12.3% to 11.2% in relation to sales.

與去年同期相比，貿易營運資金佔銷售額的比例從 12.3% 下降至 11.2%。

Our capital efficiency program aims to improve working capital by $800 million.

我們的資本效率計畫旨在將營運資本提高 8 億美元。

To date, we have achieved around $640 million.

迄今為止，我們已實現約 6.4 億美元的收入。

Improvements in inventories are lagging due to the high call of volatility and hence counting challenges that cause inefficiencies.

由於波動性大，庫存的改善滯後，因此計算導致效率低下的挑戰。

Over the coming years, we expect inventories to improve significantly in tandem with the reduced coal of volatility.

未來幾年，我們預計庫存將隨著煤炭波動性的降低而顯著改善。

Now looking on our debt leverage ratio development on the next slide.

現在來看看下一張投影片上我們的債務槓桿率發展。

Our continued focus on balance sheet efficiency is supporting our strong performance for cash flow, cash conversion and return on capital employed.

我們對資產負債表效率的持續關注支持了我們在現金流、現金轉換和資本回報率方面的強勁表現。

Our leverage ratio improved compared to the same quarter a year ago, despite investing in our footprint and returning over $810 million to shareholders.

儘管投資了我們的業務並向股東返還了超過 8.1 億美元，但與去年同期相比，我們的槓桿率有所提高。

The debt leverage ratio at the end of June 2024 improved by 0.1 times from the end of the first quarter.

2024年6月末債務槓桿比率較一季末改善0.1倍。

Compared to the first quarter of 2024, our net debt increased by $9 million, while 12 months trailing adjusted EBITDA improved by $11 million.

與 2024 年第一季相比，我們的淨債務增加了 900 萬美元，而過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 增加了 1,100 萬美元。

We expect that our debt leverage and positive cash flow trend will allow for continued high shareholder returns going forward, Autoliv has entered into an additional revolving credit facility agreement with Standard Chartered Bank that can be used for general corporate purposes.

我們預計，我們的債務槓桿和正現金流趨勢將允許未來持續的高股東回報，奧托立夫已與渣打銀行簽訂了額外的循環信貸融資協議，可用於一般企業用途。

The agreement provides for a $125 million revolving credit facility that matures in 2029 and does not contain any financial covenants.

該協議規定提供 1.25 億美元的循環信貸額度，將於 2029 年到期，且不包含任何財務契約。

Now looking at shareholder returns over the past five years on the next slide.

現在在下一張投影片上查看過去五年的股東回報。

Over the years, Autoliv has shown its ability to generate solid cash flow in periods with varying market environments.

多年來，奧托立夫已展現出在不同市場環境時期產生穩定現金流的能力。

We have used both dividend payments and share repurchases to create shareholder value.

我們利用股利支付和股票回購來創造股東價值。

Historically, the dividend has usually represented a yield of approximately 2% to 3% in relation to the average share price.

從歷史上看，股息的收益率通常約為平均股價的 2% 至 3%。

During the last 12 months, we have returned around $810 million to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, a new record for the company.

在過去 12 個月中，我們透過股利和股票回購向股東返還了約 8.1 億美元，創下了公司的新紀錄。

Over the last five years, we have reduced the net debt significantly while returning $1.7 billion directly to shareholders.

在過去五年中，我們大幅減少了淨債務，同時直接向股東返還 17 億美元。

This includes stock repurchases and cancellations of 7.8 million shares for a total of close to USD800 million as part of the current stock repurchase program.

作為目前股票回購計畫的一部分，這包括股票回購和註銷 780 萬股，總金額接近 8 億美元。

Since we initiated the current stock repurchase program in 2022, we have reduced the number of outstanding shares by close to 9%.

自 2022 年啟動目前股票回購計畫以來，我們已將流通股數量減少了近 9%。

We consider several factors when executing the program such as our balance sheet, our cash flow outlook, our credit rating, and the general business conditions, not only the debt leverage ratio.

在執行計劃時，我們會考慮幾個因素，例如我們的資產負債表、現金流前景、信用評級和一般業務狀況，而不僅僅是債務槓桿率。

We always strive to balance what is best for our shareholders, both short and long-term.

我們始終努力平衡短期和長期股東的最佳利益。

Now looking on our efficient balance sheet that supports our shareholder return from the next slide.

現在看看我們有效的資產負債表，它支持下一張投影片中的股東回報。

Strong balance sheet and good return on capital employed is fundamental for long-term shareholder value creation.

強勁的資產負債表和良好的資本回報率是創造長期股東價值的基礎。

Despite an operating margin impacted by the challenging market environment for the past five years, our return on capital employed has remained strong, averaging around 17%.

儘管過去五年營業利潤率受到充滿挑戰的市場環境的影響，但我們的已動用資本回報率仍然強勁，平均約為 17%。

Our capital turnover rate, meaning our sales in relation to average capital employed, has improved substantially over the past three years and is now significantly above our 5-year average.

我們的資本週轉率，即我們的銷售額與平均所用資本的比率，在過去三年中大幅提高，目前明顯高於我們的五年平均值。

With that, I hand it back to you Mikael.

說完，我把它還給你，米凱爾。

Thank you Fredrick.

謝謝弗雷德里克。

On to the next slide.

轉到下一張投影片。

As we enter the second half of 2024, the outlook for the global light vehicle production has been reduced by 2-percentage-points since April and to IONA's 2.2% by S&P.

進入 2024 年下半年，標準普爾將全球輕型車產量預期自 4 月以來下調了 2 個百分點，降至 IONA 的 2.2%。

The light vehicle production update is factoring in region-specific influences, particularly recent light vehicle sales weakness in China, persistent headwinds in Europe, vehicle homologation issues in Japan and growing vehicle inventories in North America.

輕型汽車產量更新考慮了特定地區的影響，特別是最近中國輕型汽車銷售疲軟、歐洲持續的不利因素、日本的汽車認證問題以及北美不斷增長的汽車庫存。

The updated forecast indicates a light vehicle production decline of 4% for the second half of the year with the third quarter falling 5.5%.

更新後的預測顯示，下半年輕型汽車產量將下降 4%，其中第三季下降 5.5%。

Light vehicle production in China is expected to decline 7% in the third quarter on a very strong third quarter last year and a weak domestic demand.

由於去年第三季非常強勁且國內需求疲軟，預計中國第三季輕型汽車產量將下降 7%。

The outlook for North America is light vehicle production has been revised down 3.4% over the short term horizon on the need for a greater inventory correction.

由於需要更大幅度的庫存修正，北美輕型車產量的前景已被修正為短期內下降 3.4%。

Light vehicle production forecast for Europe has decreased to minus 5% in the third quarter, mainly due to higher longer interest rate effects and consumer demand and continued inventory reductions at some OEMs.

第三季歐洲輕型汽車產量預測已降至-5%，主要是由於較高的長期利率影響和消費者需求以及一些原始設備製造商的庫存持續減少。

Based on S&P Global's forecast and our own analysis, our 2024 guidance is built on a global light vehicle production decline of around 3% for the full year.

根據 S&P Global 的預測和我們自己的分析，我們的 2024 年指引是基於全年全球輕型汽車產量下降 3% 左右。

Now looking on the business outlook on the next slide.

現在來看看下一張投影片的業務前景。

We expect a significant increase in profitability in the second half of the year with an adjusted operating margin of around 11% to 12% compared to the first half year's 8%.

我們預計下半年獲利能力將大幅成長，調整後營業利潤率將由上半年的 8% 左右提高至 11% 至 12% 左右。

This is supported mainly by a more stable and slightly higher light vehicle production, structural and strategic initiatives, cost control and customer compensations.

這主要得益於更穩定和略高的輕型汽車產量、結構和策略性舉措、成本控制和客戶補償。

This is expected to be partly offset by higher cost for raw materials driven mainly by steel and nylon.

預計這將被主要由鋼鐵和尼龍驅動的原材料成本上漲所部分抵消。

Looking at our 2024 financial guidance on the next slight.

接下來來看看我們的 2024 年財務指引。

This slide shows our full year 2024 guidance, which excludes effects from capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters, and other discrete items.

這張投影片顯示了我們 2024 年的全年指導，其中排除了產能調整、反壟斷相關事項和其他離散項目的影響。

Our updated full year guidance is based on a global light vehicle production decline of around 3% instead of 1%.

我們更新後的全年指引是基於全球輕型汽車產量下降約 3%（而不是 1%）。

The lower light vehicle production assumptions has a negative impact on our sales, adjusted operating margin and operating cash flow.

較低的輕型汽車產量假設對我們的銷售、調整後的營運利潤率和營運現金流產生負面影響。

Our organic sales is now expected to increase by around 2%.

我們的有機銷售額目前預計將成長 2% 左右。

Net currency translation effects are now expected to be minus 1% on sales.

目前預期淨貨幣換算對銷售額的影響為-1%。

The guidance for adjusted operating margin is around 9.5% to 10%.

調整後營業利益率的指引約為 9.5% 至 10%。

Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD1.1 billion.

營運現金流預計約11億美元。

Our positive cash flow trend should allow for continued high shareholder returns.

我們積極的現金流趨勢應該能夠為股東帶來持續的高回報。

We foresee a tax rate of around 28%.

我們預計稅率約為 28%。

Looking on the next slide.

看下一張投影片。

This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors.

我們今天的財報電話會議的正式評論到此結束，我們願意接受分析師和投資者的提問。

I now hand it back to Nadia.

我現在把它還給娜迪亞。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Colin Langan, Wells Fargo.

柯林‧蘭根，富國銀行。

Okay, great.

好的，太好了。

Thanks for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

It's just to start, if I look at the midpoint of your guidance cut, it looks like close to a 30% decremental on lower sales.

這只是開始，如果我看一下你們指導下調的中點，看起來銷售額下降了近 30%。

Is it a little bit higher than normal.

是不是比平常高了一點點。

Any thoughts on why is it toward the higher end, particularly with PSO?

你有什麼想法為什麼它會走向高端，特別是對 PSO 來說？

So because I thought there was a big headwind last year and the pace it seems to be now maybe help.

因為我認為去年存在很大的逆風，而現在的步伐可能會有所幫助。

So that actually can help decremental, actually improve into the second half and how are you thinking about that

所以這實際上可以幫助減少，實際上可以改善到下半場，你對此有何看法

?

？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

Thanks for the question.

謝謝你的提問。

I mean, we always said if it's basically LDP that is driving the sales development, then we would expect that the decremental margin would be at the higher end of the 20% to 30% range.

我的意思是，我們總是說，如果基本上是自民黨推動銷售發展，那麼我們預計下降幅度將在 20% 至 30% 範圍的較高端。

And that's basically what you are also then calculating area.

這基本上就是你要計算的面積。

On top of that, we also have as I said a slight headwind also from raw materials versus what we had expected previously.

最重要的是，正如我所說，與我們先前的預期相比，我們也面臨來自原料的輕微阻力。

So those are the main things.

這些是主要的事情。

On the PSO, we have included here what we have based our guidance for.

關於 PSO，我們在此包含了我們所依據的指南。

So that's a pay us a rate of around 17 to the dollars.

因此，我們支付的匯率約為 17 美元。

And yes, depending on how that moves here in the second half of the year, that could be a difference to what we are assuming at the moment.

是的，這取決於今年下半年的情況，這可能與我們目前的假設有所不同。

Okay.

好的。

So 30s at the higher end.

所以 30 多歲是高端。

So the PSO help maybe it's all washed out by the raw material headwind, but the right way to think about it.

因此，PSO 的幫助可能會被原料逆風沖走，但這是正確的思考方式。

Potentially.

有潛力。

Okay.

好的。

And then just overall that the guidance came down from 5% to 2%.

總體而言，指導值從 5% 降至 2%。

I think with rounding, it's light vehicle production is down just to.

我認為透過四捨五入，輕型汽車產量將下降至。

You talked a lot about mixed headwinds particular in this quarter.

您談到了很多複雜的不利因素，特別是本季的不利因素。

You said it was 12% worse than you expected versus production being 3% worse for Q2.

你說第二季的產量比你預期的低 12%，但產量卻低了 3%。

How much of a mix headwind is baked in for the second half of the year?

下半年的混合逆風有多大？

Is that expected to persist or is most of that sort of, I guess 1% extra customer mix headwind already occurred in Q2 ?

這種情況預計會持續下去，還是大部分這種情況，我猜第二季度已經出現了 1% 的額外客戶組合逆風？

No, the 12% that we were referring to was how the volumes in June developed compared to our expectations at the beginning of the quarter.

不，我們所說的 12% 是 6 月銷量與本季初預期相比的成長情況。

So basically, the whole deviation for the quarter was in June, whereas April and May were more or less in line with expectations, that's what we were saying.

所以基本上，該季度的整個偏差是在 6 月，而 4 月和 5 月或多或少符合預期，這就是我們所說的。

Then on the mix in the quarter had a negative 2-percentage-point or close to 2-percentage-point effect.

然後，本季的組合產生了 2 個百分點或接近 2 個百分點的負面效應。

And we expect that for the full year to be around negative 1%.

我們預計全年的成長率為負 1% 左右。

And that is mainly based on say that the sales mix in China would improve in the second half for us versus the first half.

這主要是基於我們下半年在中國的銷售組合將比上半年有所改善。

Mean, if you look at how the Chinese OEMs developed in the second quarter, they were up 20% year over year, whereas the global OEMs were down 10%.

也就是說，如果你看看中國整車廠第二季度的發展情況，你會發現它們比去年同期成長了20%，而全球整車廠則下降了10%。

And this number for the full year is expected to be plus 10 minus 10 or so.

而全年這個數字預計在正10負10左右。

It means that this negative trend we had in Q2 should reverse in the second half.

這意味著第二季的這種負面趨勢應該會在下半年扭轉。

But again, that's what we're basing it on and remains to be seen how that plays out.

但同樣，這就是我們的基礎，效果如何還有待觀察。

But based on this assumption, it's a negative 1-percentage-point mix effect for the full year.

但基於此假設，全年的混合效應為負 1 個百分點。

Got it.

知道了。

That's very helpful and thank you for taking my call.

這非常有幫助，感謝您接聽我的電話。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Hampus Engellau, Handelsbanken.

Hampus Engellau，德國商業銀行。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Two questions for me.

有兩個問題問我。

Firstly, if you could maybe talk a little bit about your view on the light vehicle production of 3% for this year, slightly more than the 2% in comparison to I mean, the way you do this is Europe.

首先，如果你能談談你對今年輕型汽車產量 3% 的看法，略高於我的意思是 2%，那麼你這樣做的方式是在歐洲。

That is that you are more cautious on.

那就是你比較謹慎。

Second question is more on your price compensation with customers.

第二個問題更多的是關於你對客戶的價格補償。

Has those stocks become tougher now than it was the same adjustments on production and also in inventory reductions also.

現在這些庫存是否比生產和庫存減少方面進行相同調整時變得更加困難？

Quite a question.

真是一個問題。

Thank you Hampus.

謝謝漢普斯。

On the first point , regarding our slightly more negative view on the full year and then SMP here is, as you said correctly, connected to our more cautious view on Europe.

關於第一點，正如您所說，我們對全年和 SMP 的看法略為負面，這與我們對歐洲更謹慎的看法有關。

There, we, of course, also see the effects coming from the overall business cycle and consumer demand here that are slightly weaker as a result of higher cost of living and higher interest rates, et cetera.

當然，我們也看到了整體商業週期和消費者需求的影響，由於生活成本上升和利率上升等原因，這些影響略有減弱。

So there are some I would say more economic related topics there and what we maybe see in other parts of the world.

因此，我想說有一些與經濟相關的主題，以及我們可能在世界其他地方看到的內容。

So we are slightly more conservative there and underprice compensation, I think we're making good progress there.

因此，我們在那裡稍微保守一些，補償價格較低，我認為我們在那裡取得了良好的進展。

As we have reported here, we have closed with the majority of our customers here.

正如我們在此報道的，我們已經與這裡的大多數客戶關閉了。

Is it easier or harder?

是更容易還是更難？

I would say it is as it has always been a very detailed negotiation.

我想說的是，因為這一直是個非常詳細的談判。

I think in terms of evidence here, I mean, it's an evidence driven negotiations, and it's all about, external inflationary impacts on our value chain and it's well documented.

我認為就證據而言，我的意思是，這是一個證據驅動的談判，而這一切都是關於外部通膨對我們價值鏈的影響，並且有據可查。

I think we have found a way to work with our customers on this and this is the 3 year that we have an extensive negotiation related to inflation.

我認為我們已經找到了一種與客戶合作的方法，這是我們在第三年就通膨問題進行了廣泛的談判。

And I think we have found a good way to manage this process here.

我認為我們已經找到了管理此流程的好方法。

So I think we have a good setup, but it's never easy.

所以我認為我們有一個很好的設置，但這絕非易事。

And it requires a lot of details in those negotiations.

在這些談判中需要很多細節。

And as we have said before here, it's really component by component and plant-by-plant.

正如我們之前所說，它實際上是逐個組件、逐個工廠進行的。

So that continuous.

如此連續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Michael Jacks, Bank of America.

麥可傑克斯，美國銀行。

Hi, good afternoon.

嗨，下午好。

Thank you for the presentation.

謝謝您的介紹。

My first question is on this headwind reported from out-of-period compensation.

我的第一個問題是關於期外薪酬帶來的不利影響。

Is this just a timing issue or is there perhaps some inflation in the system that you're unable to recover.

這只是一個時間問題還是系統中可能存在一些無法恢復的通貨膨脹。

Will this headwind repeat again in Q3 and Q4?

這種逆風會在第三季和第四季再次重演嗎？

And then maybe just more broadly speaking on the topic of retroactive pricing.

然後也許只是更廣泛地談論追溯定價的主題。

Is the idea that suppliers are going to continue needing this retroactive pricing for prior year's wage increases not becoming somewhat tenuous, especially as the cumulative effect continues to roll up.

供應商將繼續需要對上一年的薪資成長進行追溯定價的想法是否變得有些脆弱，特別是隨著累積效應繼續累積。

Is there a risk here that we have OEMs perhaps start to draw a line in terms of how far back they're willing to go on this?

這裡是否有這樣的風險：我們的原始設備製造商可能會開始在他們願意在這方面進行多久之前劃清界線？

Thank you.

謝謝。

The I think the attractiveness we referred to here was really that last year in comparison, we got the higher portion connected to out of period in the result Q2 2023.

我認為我們在這裡提到的吸引力實際上是與去年相比，我們在 2023 年第二季的結果中獲得了與過時相關的更高部分。

Then we got this year.

然後我們就到了今年。

So you could say that it's not I wouldn't say a headwind this year in comparison here, you need to make that adjustment.

所以你可以說，與這裡相比，我不會說今年是逆風，你需要做出調整。

So it doesn't indicate anything that goes back further in time more or less than it has been before.

因此，它並不表明任何比以前更多或更少的時間可以追溯到更早的時間。

So you can say that, of course, as the inflation comes down and the negotiations is being concluded, of course, the outer period become less when you're talking about less of an impact.

所以你當然可以說，隨著通貨膨脹的下降和談判的結束，當然，當你談論影響較小時，外部時期會變少。

So that's a real question here.

所以這是一個真正的問題。

I think on the -- our supply base here is really this year that we are negotiating.

我認為，我們今年的供應基地確實是我們正在談判的。

So it's not a 2023 overhang or anything like that.

所以這不是 2023 年的懸而未決或類似的事情。

It's really between the quarters in the current year that we have this out-of-period impact, so to speak.

可以說，我們實際上是在今年的兩個季度之間產生了這種期外影響。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then maybe sorry, just to be clear on this out of period compensation, I mean what we're simply reporting there is what we negotiated in the second quarter of this year.

然後，也許很抱歉，為了澄清這一期外補償，我的意思是我們只是報告的是我們在今年第二季度協商的內容。

That is then retractive and from a reporting point of view, should have been reported than in the first quarter of this year.

這是可收回的，從報告的角度來看，應該比今年第一季報告。

And that's simply the magnitude of the past conversations we got last year that ended up being $30 million, that then belongs to the -- because of the attractive component in the first quarter.

這就是我們去年進行的對話的規模，最終達到 3000 萬美元，然後屬於——因為第一季的有吸引力的組成部分。

So it was not realistic run rate related for the second quarter, whereas that number this year was only $6 million.

因此，第二季的運行率並不現實，而今年的數字僅為 600 萬美元。

So you get a mathematical effect here of the $24 million.

所以你可以得到 2400 萬美元的數學效應。

I understand.

我明白。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Maybe just to clarify then on the second part, how much compensation is required on wage increases that were affected in 2023?

也許只是為了澄清第二部分，2023 年受影響的薪資上漲需要多少補償？

And given that some of these, I guess, are being settled by customers via lump-sum payments.

我猜想，其中一些費用是由客戶透過一次性付款來解決的。

Does this affect not just continue to roll up over the years?

難道這種影響不只是多年來不斷累積的嗎？

No.

不。

I mean, as I said, before.

我的意思是，正如我之前所說的。

I mean, right now, in 2024, we only negotiated impacts arriving in 2024.

我的意思是，現在，在 2024 年，我們只協商了 2024 年到達的影響。

So that's no 2023 impacting that.

所以 2023 年不會對此產生影響。

Then, of course, if there was a lump sum payment in '23 for '23.

當然，如果在 23 年一次性支付 23 年的話。

Of course, when we go to our customers and we got a lump sum last year that lump sum needs to be included, of course, in this year's compensation.

當然，當我們去找客戶時，我們去年得到了一筆一次性付款，當然，這筆一次性付款需要包含在今年的補償中。

But that has nothing to do with the outer period because that the outer period is, as we said before here, as we reported here is between the quarters in the current year.

但這與外部期間無關，因為正如我們之前所說，外部期間是在本年度的季度之間。

So there is nothing to do with 2023.

所以和2023年沒有任何關係。

And as I said here, I mean, it was a higher number last year because it was a higher base with we were negotiating.

正如我在這裡所說的，我的意思是，去年的數字更高，因為我們正在談判的基礎更高。

This year it was in lower and because the inflation has come down and that is a low number that we all need to negotiate this year than it was last year.

今年的數字較低，因為通貨膨脹已經下降，我們今年需要協商的數字比去年低。

And in comparison, of course, between Q2 and Q2, if you had a big bigger out of period last year, it shows up as a headwind here, but it's not a headwind in comparison mathematically.

當然，相比之下，在第二季度和第二季度之間，如果去年有一個更大的周期，那麼它在這裡會顯示為逆風，但從數學角度來看，這並不是逆風。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you for that.

謝謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Erik Golrang, SEB

埃里克·戈爾朗，SEB

Thank you.

謝謝。

First question is on the call of volatility.

第一個問題是關於波動性的召喚。

You illustrated the development there on the slide, and I was just -- there hasn't really been an improvement over the past year, in fact, some deterioration towards the end.

你在幻燈片上說明了那裡的發展情況，我只是——過去一年並沒有真正的改善，事實上，到年底還出現了一些惡化。

What's the main reason for why you expect that to improve ahead.

您期望未來有所改善的主要原因是什麼？

And then the second question related to that, the so the new margin target still to 75 bps or so.

第二個問題與此相關，因此新的保證金目標仍為 75 個基點左右。

More distant from the 12% target.

距離12%的目標還很遙遠。

How much of that is just being the unexpectedly high call of volatility and how much is volume, i.e., what comes back if you want to get to more stable market.

其中有多少只是意外的高波動性，有多少是交易量，也就是如果你想進入更穩定的市場，會回來什麼。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for the question there.

謝謝你的提問。

Of course, we -- I mean, we are expecting that call it volatility eventually should come back to normal.

當然，我們——我的意思是，我們預計波動性最終會恢復正常。

I think the automotive industry is definitely used to work effectively with a call-off towards the supplier base.

我認為汽車產業肯定習慣於透過取消供應商基礎來有效地工作。

And I have no reason to believe that shouldn't be the case going forward.

我沒有理由相信未來的情況不該如此。

I think we this is a reflection that we still are in a very uncertain economic environment around the world here.

我認為這反映出我們仍然處於世界各地非常不確定的經濟環境中。

And as we went through the different regions here before you can see that are there, of course, different reasons.

當我們瀏覽這裡的不同地區時，您會發現其中當然存在不同的原因。

And this is not an average across all our customer base.

這並不是我們所有客戶群的平均值。

I mean, some customers are definitely very close or on pre pandemic targets.

我的意思是，有些客戶肯定非常接近或達到疫情前的目標。

And there's are further away.

還有更遠的地方。

And of course, if you are an OEM out there that maybe losing market share, you may be losing some specific gear platform sales out in regions, you need to adjust and adjust your inventories, and that's may be with some short notice that creates this.

當然，如果您是一家可能會失去市場份額的原始設備製造商，您可能會失去一些特定地區的齒輪平台銷售，您需要調整和調整您的庫存，這可能會在短時間內產生這種情況。

Excuse me.

打擾一下。

And there was a very a variance of reasons for it, but it's all reflecting them and uncertainty in the industry as such.

造成這種情況的原因多種多樣，但這都反映了這些原因以及產業本身的不確定性。

So I mean, you could say that why do we believe it then?

所以我的意思是，你可能會說我們為什麼相信它？

It is because we see many customers are returning to that level at some point.

這是因為我們看到許多客戶在某個時候回到了這個水平。

Then the impact here on the other reduction, I would say it's more connected to the absolute light vehicle production levels.

那麼這裡對其他減少的影響，我想說它與絕對輕型車生產水平更相關。

So we are not discounting too much on the volatility side here, but maybe Fredrik, you can develop that a little bit.

因此，我們在這裡不會對波動性方面打太多折扣，但也許弗雷德里克（Fredrik），你可以稍微發展一下。

It is basically what we have said previously that from that 8.8% where we were last year, then the bridge up to the 12% margin target that we expect 1-percentage-point of that 3-percentage-point gap to be closed by the improved flow, call it, volatility.

這基本上就是我們之前所說的，從去年的 8.8% 開始，到 12% 的利潤率目標，我們預計 3 個百分點的差距中的 1 個百分點將在改善流動性，稱之為波動性。

And with that also our ability then to operate with better direct labor efficiency.

這樣我們就有能力以更好的直接勞動效率來運作。

So there's nothing unchanged on that.

所以這方面沒有什麼改變。

Just as Mikael said that the underlying LVP here is developing a bit differently and what we had expected a quarter ago.

正如 Mikael 所說，這裡的潛在 LVP 的發展與我們一個季度前的預期略有不同。

Very good.

非常好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And just to follow up then on Mikael's answer.

只是為了跟進 Mikael 的回答。

What is the particular region or group of OEMs that we should focus on to find that positive delta in the in Call of stability

我們應該關注哪些特定地區或 OEM 群體，以找到穩定呼聲中的正增量

?

？

I think when it comes to regions, I think it's more Europe, Americas, a situation, and I wouldn't like to go into specific OEMs there.

我認為說到地區，我認為更多的是歐洲、美洲的情況，我不想討論那裡的特定原始設備製造商。

But of course, depending on the unique situation it varies between them.

但當然，根據具體情況，它們之間會有所不同。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Dan Levy, Barclays.

丹·利維，巴克萊銀行。

Sorry, Thank you.

對不起，謝謝。

Hi, good afternoon to you.

你好，下午好。

Thank you for taking the questions.

感謝您提出問題。

Wanted to just go back to the question on customer mix.

我想回到關於客戶組合的問題。

And you mentioned that you're only assuming down 1%, but if we just do some rough back-of-the-envelope math, one of your key customers, large European OEM with the heavy North America exposure, they've revised negatively another customer.

你提到你只假設下降 1%，但如果我們只是做一些粗略的粗略計算，你的主要客戶之一、在北美業務較多的大型歐洲 OEM 廠商，他們已經做出了負面修正另一位顧客。

We've seen some negative revisions there.

我們在那裡看到了一些負面的修改。

And then the China piece, we're well aware of the revision there.

然後是中國部分，我們很清楚那裡的修訂。

So a 1% negative mix seems a bit light in the context of that.

因此，在這種情況下，1% 的負面組合似乎有點輕。

Maybe you could just provide a little more context on that assumption of 1% negative mix and the

也許你可以就 1% 負面混合的假設以及

(technical difficulty)

（技術難度）

Thank you.

謝謝。

As I said, I can't comment on specific OEM here.

正如我所說，我不能在這裡評論特定的 OEM。

But in general, I can say that this, of course, maybe hasn't bigger impact here as you're alluding to.

但總的來說，我可以說，這當然可能不會像您提到的那樣產生更大的影響。

It's, of course, because we are very well positioned across the universe here.

當然，這是因為我們在宇宙中處於非常有利的位置。

I mean, we are well-represented with all the different OEMs.

我的意思是，我們在所有不同的原始設備製造商中都有很好的代表。

We have a regional mix that is also well represented across the board.

我們的區域組合也具有全面的代表性。

And as we alluded to here also, we are growing significantly with the Chinese OEMs here and supported by their growth in the region.

正如我們在這裡也提到的，我們與這裡的中國原始設備製造商一起取得了顯著的增長，並得到了他們在該地區增長的支持。

So that is offsetting, of course, a lot of the comment related to the comments you had here.

當然，這抵消了許多與您在這裡發表的評論相關的評論。

So we have good portfolio to offset that impact

因此，我們有良好的投資組合來抵消這種影響

.

。

And maybe on the 1- percentage-point, I mean what we're talking about there is the negative regional mix that we're expecting.

也許在 1 個百分點上，我的意思是我們正在談論的是我們預期的負面區域組合。

And then also the customer mix within China.

然後還有中國境內的客戶組合。

That's a negative 1%.

那是負的1%。

Understood.

明白了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then as a follow-up, I'm wondering if you could just discuss the competitive dynamics a bit in China.

作為後續行動，我想知道您是否可以討論中國的競爭動態。

I believe at one point you said that you are aiming for 40% market share in China and improvements from there.

我相信您曾經說過，您的目標是在中國獲得 40% 的市場份額，並在此基礎上不斷提高。

But maybe you could provide us to the extent possible.

但也許你可以盡可能地為我們提供幫助。

Any color on at your share within the domestics versus the multinationals.

在國內企業與跨國企業中，您所佔的份額有任何顏色。

How much of that total 40% market share is domestics versus multinationals?

與跨國公司相比，國內公司佔 40% 市場份額的比例有多少？

And then as a follow-up to that, how you view the competition from some of the other local Chinese suppliers in China and then also outside of China as well?

接下來，您如何看待來自中國以及中國以外其他一些中國本土供應商的競爭？

I think I mean, first of all, we don't have a market share target either globally or regionally more than we want to defend our strong position.

我想我的意思是，首先，我們在全球或區域範圍內的市場份額目標並沒有超出我們想要捍衛我們的強勢地位的目標。

And as we said in the Q2 here, I mean, the Chinese OEM stands for 38% of our share sales in in China.

正如我們在第二季所說，我的意思是，中國 OEM 占我們在中國銷售份額的 38%。

That has grown significantly, and we expect to continue to grow here.

這一數字已顯著增長，我們預計將繼續增長。

So well positioned there.

那裡的位置很好。

And I mean, we have also had this regional strategy for long and in China, obviously, we are in China for China, and we are a market leader in China.

我的意思是，我們長期以來也有這種區域戰略，在中國，顯然，我們在中國為中國服務，我們是中國的市場領導者。

So I think we have also good position here too, to work with towards how you say, in competition with our peers in the industry also in China.

所以我認為我們在這裡也有很好的地位，可以按照你所說的方式與我們的中國同行競爭。

So we well and prepared and well set up for that to continue that effort there.

因此，我們做好了充分準備，並做好了充分準備，以便繼續在那裡努力。

Globally, I think it's very much the same in the sense that you have in all three, you could say three global players with a similar portfolio, then you have more of a regional players and also a place with some smaller, more narrower product offering.

在全球範圍內，我認為這在很大程度上是相同的，你可以說三個具有相似產品組合的全球參與者，然後你有更多的區域參與者以及一些更小、更窄的產品供應的地方。

And that it also is operating in.

而且它也在其中運作。

But I think there's no dramatic change to the landscape that we have seen here for quite some time.

但我認為我們在這裡看到的景觀已經有一段時間沒有巨大的變化了。

Maybe that's a competitive industry and we are well prepared and we have a very strong offering here to be able to continue to defend our market share leadership position here.

也許這是一個競爭激烈的行業，我們已經做好了充分準備，我們在這裡擁有非常強大的產品，能夠繼續捍衛我們的市場份額領先地位。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Agnieszka Belowska, Nordea.

阿格涅斯卡‧貝洛斯卡 (Agnieszka Belowska)，北歐聯合銀行。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I have a question on your margin guidance for H2 2024.

我對你們 2024 年下半年的保證金指導有疑問。

You expect 11% to 12% margin.

您預計利潤率為 11% 到 12%。

And just looking at H2, 2023 were up underlying, I think 11.1% with a quite good finish to car production in 2023.

光是看下半年，2023 年就基本上漲了 11.1%，2023 年汽車生產的收尾相當不錯。

So the question is, if you could maybe specify or quantify what buckets will be driving this margin improvement in H2, especially in the light with some raw material headwinds and car production headwinds that are increasing into H2?

所以問題是，您是否可以指定或量化哪些因素將推動下半年利潤率的提高，特別是考慮到下半年一些原材料不利因素和汽車生產不利因素正在加劇？

Yes, sure.

是的，當然。

So I mean, yes, you're roughly say 11% to 12% is what we're seeing here compared to 8% for the first half.

所以我的意思是，是的，你大致可以說我們在這裡看到的是 11% 到 12%，而上半年是 8%。

And as already pointed out in the presentation, we expect a slightly higher EBIT in the second half than in the first half and also more stable development.

正如演示中已經指出的那樣，我們預計下半年的息稅前利潤將略高於上半年，發展也將更加穩定。

Then we also expect continued impact from our structural and strategic initiatives, cost control, especially on the SG&A side and then increased customer compensations.

然後，我們也預期我們的結構和策略性舉措、成本控制（尤其是銷售管理、行政管理方面）以及客戶薪資的增加將持續產生影響。

So those are the positives and then a slight headwind or a bit more headwind than we expected at the beginning of the year from raw materials.

因此，這些都是積極的因素，然後是來自原材料的輕微逆風或比我們年初預期的逆風更大。

So when you sum it up, it is really a I would say a good development here when it comes to all the initiatives and activities that we are driving in to improve our results towards the around 12% target.

因此，當您總結起來時，我想說，就我們為提高業績以實現 12% 左右的目標而採取的所有舉措和活動而言，這確實是一個良好的發展。

So we are making progress.

所以我們正在取得進展。

It's giving the intended results.

它給出了預期的結果。

And that, of course, in combination with the good progress on the price negotiation.

當然，這與價格談判的良好進展相結合。

So the challenges here is very much around the absolute light vehicle production volume and of course, also the volatility that we've seen in.

因此，這裡的挑戰很大程度上圍繞著輕型汽車的絕對產量，當然還有我們所看到的波動性。

Just the gap seems quite big from, say, 8% margin in H1 in total, 11% in H2.

只是差距似乎相當大，例如上半年利潤率為 8%，下半年利潤率為 11%。

So we'll probably I mean, I would appreciate a bit more detailed quantification of what would be driving that.

所以我們可能會說，我希望能對推動這一趨勢的因素進行更詳細的量化。

It is the elements that I just mentioned.

就是我剛才提到的那些要素。

I mean, I cannot the largest bond will, of course, be the customer compensations.

我的意思是，我不能說最大的連結當然是客戶賠償。

And I -- we've never talked about how what we're targeting and what the effect of that will be, but that is one important part of it, yes.

我——我們從未討論過我們的目標是什麼以及其效果將會是什麼，但這是其中的一個重要部分，是的。

Then we also I mean, as you know, we always have a seasonality effect that our Q4 is traditionally always stronger than the other three quarters.

然後，我的意思是，如您所知，我們總是有季節性影響，我們的第四季度傳統上總是強於其他三個季度。

So that's we're not expecting that to be different this year than in any other year.

因此，我們預計今年的情況不會與其他年份有所不同。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Bruno Dossena , Wolfe Research.

布魯諾·多塞納，沃爾夫研究。

Hi, and thank you for taking the questions.

您好，感謝您提出問題。

I wanted to ask on the cost reduction opportunity on my math in the second quarter.

我想詢問第二季數學成本降低的機會。

Cost reductions, I believe added $20 million to 25 million year over year.

我相信成本削減年增了 2,000 萬至 2,500 萬美元。

But could you give us a sense of the trajectory of cost reductions this year, both the $50 million of indirect that you said, as well as that direct headcount reductions.

但您能否讓我們了解今年成本削減的軌跡，包括您所說的 5000 萬美元的間接成本削減，以及直接人員削減。

What could those cost savings be on an annualized basis exiting this year.

以年計算，今年節省的成本是多少？

And then as a follow-up to that, when we think about these cost reductions, how much of those are offsetting normal price reductions worse offsetting but beyond the normal productivity improvements that would flow straight to the bottom line?

然後，作為後續行動，當我們考慮這些成本削減時，其中有多少抵消了正常的降價，更糟的是抵消了但超出了直接影響利潤的正常生產力提高？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yes.

是的。

No, I mean, it's there's planned savings from our structural initiatives are unchanged, and they are still $50 million this year and then ramping up to $100 million next year and then $130 million when fully implemented.

不，我的意思是，我們的結構性舉措計劃節省的資金沒有改變，今年仍然是 5000 萬美元，明年將增加到 1 億美元，全面實施後將達到 1.3 億美元。

So there's no change on that we had about $10 million already last year.

所以去年我們已經有大約 1000 萬美元，這一點沒有改變。

So the year-over-year effect is about $40 million.

因此，年比影響約為 4000 萬美元。

And these are in cost out activities and they are not part of our traditional toolbox that we work with to offset the LTA.

這些都屬於成本支出活動，不屬於我們用來抵銷長期協議的傳統工具箱的一部分。

So the annual price reductions with our customers, those we typically offset with both past negotiations with our supply base.

因此，每年與客戶的降價，我們通常會透過過去與供應基地的談判來抵消。

We have activities, direct labor efficiency and so on.

我們有活動、直接勞動效率等等。

So this is on top of what we would have done in under normal circumstances to offset the price reductions.

因此，這是我們在正常情況下為抵消價格下降所做的事情的基礎。

Okay.

好的。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then if we step back and think about companies market outgrowth caution, historically, we thought about it in the mid-single digit range from content for market share.

然後，如果我們退後一步，考慮公司對市場成長的謹慎態度，從歷史上看，我們認為內容與市場份額的關係處於中個位數的範圍內。

But as you look forward and you consider the shifting customer mix dynamic, you consider the changing price cost and the market share you've already taken over the several years.

但當您展望未來並考慮不斷變化的客戶組合動態時，您會考慮不斷變化的價格成本以及您在過去幾年中已經佔據的市場份額。

What's the -- whether the right -- what's the right calculus on the outgrowth?

什麼是──是否正確──對結果的正確計算是什麼？

And how should we think about a sort of normalized level going forward?

我們該如何考慮未來的正常化程度？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I can, of course, not give us any indication or guidance on what our performance would be going forward.

當然，我不能就我們未來的表現提供任何指示或指導。

But of course, we believe that the strong you see that the content is continuing to grow and grow in importance, both in terms of and on absolute content also among premium, but also the catch-up effect you could say with where you have the lower specification models adding on gradually.

但當然，我們相信，您所看到的內容的重要性正在持續增長，無論是在絕對內容方面還是在優質內容方面，而且您可以說的追趕效應都在您擁有的地方較低規格型號逐漸增加。

I mean, like we see in India for example, where the content is growing.

我的意思是，就像我們在印度看到的那樣，那裡的內容正在增長。

So that trend is there.

所以這種趨勢是存在的。

And we see more advanced solutions.

我們看到了更先進的解決方案。

Then, of course, also on price as we go through that for what is an element, of course market share growth will be less as we have potentially because what we have said here, we don't have a new market share target of around 45 where we are, but that's something we're going to defend.

當然，在價格方面，當我們研究一個要素時，市場佔有率的成長當然會像我們可能的那樣減少，因為我們在這裡所說的，我們沒有一個新的市佔率目標45 我們現在的位置，但這是我們要捍衛的東西。

So what we have said is that going forward of the outperformance reference here is really the organic growth guidance or target order that we have disclosed before, which is before to six, where we say one to two is connected to light vehicle production growth.

因此，我們所說的是，這裡的業績參考的前進實際上是我們之前披露的有機增長指導或目標訂單，即之前的六，我們說一到二與輕型汽車產量增長有關。

One to two is connected to content growth or one to two is additional business opportunities that we see mainly in the mobility services solution area.

一到二與內容成長有關，或一到二是我們主要在行動服務解決方案領域看到的額外商機。

So as we said, the focus should be more on the organic growth ambitions that we have there on the 46.

因此，正如我們所說，重點應該更多地放在 46 上的有機成長目標上。

Thank you, Bruno.

謝謝你，布魯諾。

Yes, thank you.

是的，謝謝。

Dear participants, thank you very much for all your questions today.

尊敬的參與者，非常感謝您今天提出的所有問題。

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Mikael Bratt for any closing remarks.

現在我想將會議交給發言人米凱爾布拉特 (Mikael Bratt) 發表閉幕詞。

Thank you, Nadia.

謝謝你，納迪亞。

Before we end today's call, I would like to say that we remain fully focused on delivering on the around 12% adjusted operating margin target.

在結束今天的電話會議之前，我想說，我們仍然完全專注於實現 12% 左右的調整後營業利潤率目標。

We continue to focus on structural cost reductions, cost compensations, innovation, quality, and sustainability.

我們持續關注結構性成本降低、成本補償、創新、品質和永續性。

The positive development of our cash flow and balance sheet supports our continued commitment to a high level of shareholder returns.

我們的現金流量和資產負債表的積極發展支持了我們對高水準股東回報的持續承諾。

Our third quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, October 18, 2024.

我們的第三季財報電話會議定於 2024 年 10 月 18 日星期五舉行。

Thank you everyone for participating in today's call.

感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。

We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv until next time drive safely.

我們衷心感謝您對奧托立夫的持續關注，直至下次安全駕駛。