Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to the Q4 2021 Autoliv, Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) I'll now hand the floor to VP of Investor Relations, Anders Trapp. Please begin your meeting.

歡迎參加 2021 年第四季度 Autoliv, Inc. 收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我現在請投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp 發言。請開始您的會議。

Thank you, Mark. Welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter and full year 2021 financial results earnings presentation. On this call, we have our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt; and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin; and me, Anders Trapp, Vice President, Investor Relations.

謝謝你，馬克。歡迎大家參加我們的 2021 年第四季度和全年財務業績報告。在這次電話會議上，我們有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Mikael Bratt；和我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin；還有我，投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。

During today's earnings call, our CEO will provide a brief overview of our quarterly results as well as provide an update on our general business and market conditions. Following Mikael, Fredrik will provide further details and commentary around the financials. We will then remain available to respond to your questions. And as usual, the slides are available at autoliv.com.

在今天的財報電話會議上，我們的首席執行官將簡要概述我們的季度業績，並提供我們一般業務和市場狀況的最新信息。繼 Mikael 之後，Fredrik 將提供有關財務狀況的更多詳細信息和評論。然後，我們將繼續回复您的問題。和往常一樣，這些幻燈片可在 autoliv.com 上獲得。

Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation, and includes the Q&A that follows. During this presentation, we will reference some non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly press release available on autoliv.com, and in the 10-K that will be filed with the SEC.

轉到下一張幻燈片。我們有安全港聲明，它是本演示文稿的一個組成部分，包括以下問答。在本次演講中，我們將參考一些非美國公認會計原則的措施。我們在 autoliv.com 上提供的季度新聞稿以及將提交給 SEC 的 10-K 中披露了歷史美國 GAAP 與非美國 GAAP 措施的對賬。

Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3 p.m. Central European Time. (Operator Instructions)

最後，我應該提一下，這次電話會議打算在下午 3 點結束。中歐時間。 （操作員說明）

I now hand it over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

我現在把它交給我們的首席執行官 Mikael Bratt。

Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. First, I'd like to thank our team once again for their unrelenting commitment in maneuvering through these challenging times. I would especially like to thank our colleagues in the Philippines that successfully restarted our operations after the devastating typhoon that hit the Philippines in December. All of our employees are safe. We experienced a rising number of COVID cases, resulting in a high number of absentees in our operations. We have managed this without any real effects on our business. Supply shortage of semiconductors and other components continued to impact the light vehicle production in the quarter.

謝謝你，安德斯。看下一張幻燈片。首先，我要再次感謝我們的團隊在度過這些充滿挑戰的時期所做出的不懈努力。我要特別感謝我們在菲律賓的同事在 12 月襲擊菲律賓的毀滅性颱風後成功地重新開始了我們的業務。我們所有的員工都很安全。我們經歷了越來越多的 COVID 病例，導致我們的運營中有大量缺勤。我們已經做到了這一點，但對我們的業務沒有任何實際影響。半導體和其他零部件供應短缺繼續影響本季度輕型汽車生產。

It led to a fourth quarter global LVP decline of 13% according to IHS Markit. Component availability improved somewhat towards the end of the quarter. Markets with high safety content per vehicle were the most negatively affected. LVP in the important markets in Western Europe, North America and Japan, combined fell by more than 20% compared to a year ago. The impact from higher costs for raw materials amounted to close to USD 60 million in the quarter, and we expect to continue to see substantial headwinds from raw materials, also in 2022.

根據 IHS Markit 的數據，這導致第四季度全球 LVP 下降了 13%。組件可用性在本季度末有所改善。每輛車安全含量高的市場受到的負面影響最大。西歐、北美和日本等重要市場的 LVP 與一年前相比下降了 20% 以上。本季度原材料成本上漲的影響接近 6000 萬美元，我們預計原材料將繼續面臨巨大阻力，同樣在 2022 年。

Given all of that, I'm pleased that we reached our latest guidance for 2021 with organic sales growth of around 8%, adjusted operating margin of 8.3% and operating cash flow of USD 754 million. Also, I'm happy to report that we estimate that the order intake share was 50% in 2021, supporting our growth target and an increasing market share. Despite the challenging environment, our cash flow was solid, both in the quarter and for the year, and our debt leverage ratio remains well within our target range.

鑑於所有這些，我很高興我們達到了 2021 年的最新指導，有機銷售額增長約 8%，調整後的營業利潤率為 8.3%，經營現金流為 7.54 億美元。此外，我很高興地報告，我們估計 2021 年的訂單份額為 50%，支持我們的增長目標和不斷增加的市場份額。儘管環境充滿挑戰，但我們的現金流在本季度和本年度都很穩健，我們的債務槓桿率仍然在我們的目標範圍內。

We paid a dividend of $0.64 per share in the fourth quarter. This was 3% more than in the previous quarter.

我們在第四季度支付了每股 0.64 美元的股息。這比上一季度增長了 3%。

Looking now on the financial overview on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales of USD 2.1 billion was 16% lower than in Q4 2020, mainly due to lower global light vehicle production. Adjusted operating income, excluding cost for capacity alignment fell from USD 311 million to USD 177 million. The adjusted operating margin was 8.3% in the quarter. The lower operating margin was a result of lower sales. Pricing costs for raw materials and currency effects. Operating cash flow was a solid USD 317 million despite the challenging environment.

現在看下一張幻燈片的財務概覽。我們的合併淨銷售額為 21 億美元，比 2020 年第四季度下降 16%，主要是由於全球輕型汽車產量下降。調整後的營業收入（不包括產能調整成本）從 3.11 億美元降至 1.77 億美元。本季度調整後的營業利潤率為 8.3%。營業利潤率下降是銷售額下降的結果。原材料的定價成本和貨幣效應。儘管環境充滿挑戰，但經營現金流仍穩定在 3.17 億美元。

Looking now on order intake on the next slide. Our order intake share for the full year continued on a high level, supporting our growth in the years to come. This is strong evidence that our company is the leading company in the passive safety automotive industry, and it shows that we have managed well when launching previous year's high order intake. One of our key performance indicators, customer satisfaction, has continued to improve, and is at a high level. However, this does not mean that we can relax. We always strive for improving products, services, processes and costs. We estimate that we booked 50% of available global order value in 2021. We achieved high win rates with all product types, including front center airbags and hood lifters for pedestrian protection. We are also proud that we were successful in winning many contracts with new pure EV makers.

現在看下一張幻燈片上的訂單接收情況。我們全年的訂單量繼續保持高水平，支持我們在未來幾年的增長。這有力地證明了我們公司是被動安全汽車行業的領先公司，也表明我們在啟動去年的高訂單時管理得很好。我們的關鍵績效指標之一，客戶滿意度，不斷提高，處於較高水平。但是，這並不意味著我們可以放鬆。我們始終致力於改進產品、服務、流程和成本。我們估計，我們在 2021 年預訂了 50% 的全球可用訂單價值。我們在所有產品類型上都實現了高勝率，包括用於行人保護的前部中央安全氣囊和引擎蓋升降器。我們也為我們成功贏得了與新的純電動汽車製造商的許多合同而感到自豪。

Our strong order intake and current customer satisfaction makes us confident regarding our midterm sales targets communicated at our Capital Markets Day, last November.

我們強勁的訂單量和當前的客戶滿意度使我們對去年 11 月資本市場日傳達的中期銷售目標充滿信心。

Looking at the next slide. Our sales in the quarter came in lower than expected, with all regions disappointing, except China. This is in contrast to the changes in -- is in contrast to the changes in light vehicle production reported by IHS Markit during the quarter. This suggests that there might have been an element of pull forward of our sales from fourth to third quarter, contributing to the lower-than-expected outperformance.

看下一張幻燈片。我們本季度的銷售額低於預期，除中國外，所有地區都令人失望。這與 IHS Markit 本季度報告的輕型汽車產量變化形成對比。這表明我們的銷售從第四季度到第三季度可能存在一定的推動因素，導致業績低於預期。

In China, we did see some improvements of production volumes towards the end of the quarter, supporting our sales. As a result of the declining light vehicle production, our fourth quarter sales declined organically by almost 16%. This was 3 percentage points worse than the LVP according to IHS Markit. The regional mix indicates a negative mix impact of close to 3 percentage points in the quarter. Markets with high safety content per vehicle declined significantly more than low safety content markets. We see the sales underperformance as a temporary, and we expect sales to substantially outperform LVP in 2022.

在中國，我們確實在本季度末看到產量有所改善，支持了我們的銷售。由於輕型汽車產量下降，我們第四季度的銷售額有機下降了近 16%。根據 IHS Markit，這比 LVP 低 3 個百分點。區域組合表明本季度的負面組合影響接近 3 個百分點。每輛車安全含量高的市場下降幅度明顯大於安全含量低的市場。我們認為銷售業績不佳是暫時的，我們預計 2022 年銷售額將大大超過 LVP。

Based on the latest LVP numbers from IHS Markit, we underperformed in North America by 4 percentage points and in China by 3 percentage points. In China, the main reason for the underperformance was that production of high-end vehicles declined by 10% while production of low-end vehicles grew by 2%. Regarding North America, our sales during the quarter showed a very different development compared to what IHS Markit reported. This difference can partly be explained by a possible pull forward of our sales from the fourth to the third quarter. We outperformed in Japan, Europe and rest of Asia with between 1 and 2 -- 1 and 4 percentage points. We are confident of a solid outperformance in 2022 in all major regions.

根據 IHS Markit 的最新 LVP 數據，我們在北美的表現落後 4 個百分點，在中國落後 3 個百分點。在中國，表現不佳的主要原因是高端汽車的產量下降了 10%，而低端汽車的產量增長了 2%。關於北美，與 IHS Markit 報告的情況相比，我們在本季度的銷售額顯示出非常不同的發展。這種差異可以部分解釋為我們的銷售額從第四季度到第三季度可能有所增長。我們在日本、歐洲和亞洲其他地區的表現優於 1 到 2 - 1 到 4 個百分點。我們對 2022 年所有主要地區的穩健表現充滿信心。

On the next slide, we can see some key model launches from the fourth quarter. For the full year 2021, we set a new company record of product launches. We also set a new fourth quarter record. The models shown on this slide have an Autoliv content per vehicle from approximately USD 200 to almost USD 450, 5 of these vehicles are either EVs or plug-in hybrids, further extending our exposure to this growing market. The long-term trend to higher CPV is supported by the introduction of front center airbags, active seatbelts and knee airbags on both driver and passenger side.

在下一張幻燈片中，我們可以看到第四季度推出的一些關鍵車型。 2021 年全年，我們創造了新的公司產品發布記錄。我們還創造了新的第四季度記錄。這張幻燈片上顯示的車型每輛車的奧托立夫含量從大約 200 美元到近 450 美元不等，其中 5 輛是電動汽車或插電式混合動力車，進一步擴大了我們在這個不斷增長的市場中的曝光率。駕駛員和乘客側前部中央安全氣囊、主動式安全帶和膝部安全氣囊的引入支持了更高 CPV 的長期趨勢。

I will now hand it over to our CFO, Fredrik Westin, who will talk about the financials on the next few slides.

我現在將把它交給我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin，他將在接下來的幾張幻燈片中討論財務狀況。

Thank you, Mikael. This slide highlights our key figures for the fourth quarter of 2021 compared to the fourth quarter of 2020. Our net sales were $2.1 billion. This was a 16% decrease compared to the same quarter last year. Gross profit declined by 27% to $368 million, while the gross margin decreased to 17.4%. The gross margin decrease was primarily driven by the lower sales, higher raw material costs and negative FX effects. In the quarter, capacity alignments had a $3 million negative impact on the operating profit. The adjusted operating income decreased to $177 million from $311 million. As a result, the adjusted operating margin declined to 8.3%. The operating cash flow was $317 million. Earnings per share, diluted, decreased by $0.84, where the main drivers were $1.04 from lower adjusted operating income, partly mitigated by $0.10 from financial items, $0.06 from lower tax and $0.05 from lower capacity alignment. Our adjusted return on capital employed declined to 19.1% and the adjusted return on equity to 17.5%. We declared and paid a dividend of $0.64 per share in the quarter, $0.02 more than in the previous quarter.

謝謝你，米凱爾。這張幻燈片突出顯示了我們 2021 年第四季度與 2020 年第四季度相比的關鍵數據。我們的淨銷售額為 21 億美元。與去年同期相比下降了 16%。毛利潤下降 27% 至 3.68 億美元，而毛利率下降至 17.4%。毛利率下降主要是由於銷售額下降、原材料成本上升和負面外匯影響所致。本季度，產能調整對營業利潤產生了 300 萬美元的負面影響。調整後的營業收入從 3.11 億美元降至 1.77 億美元。因此，調整後的營業利潤率下降至 8.3%。經營現金流為 3.17 億美元。稀釋後的每股收益減少了 0.84 美元，其中主要驅動因素是調整後的營業收入減少了 1.04 美元，金融項目減少了 0.10 美元，稅收減少了 0.06 美元，產能調整減少了 0.05 美元。我們調整後的資本回報率下降至 19.1%，調整後的股本回報率下降至 17.5%。我們在本季度宣布並支付了每股 0.64 美元的股息，比上一季度增加了 0.02 美元。

Looking now on the adjusted operating margin bridge on the next slide. In the fourth quarter of 2021, our adjusted operating income of $177 million was 43% lower than in the same quarter last year. The fourth quarter in 2020 was exceptionally strong with a record adjusted operating income of $311 million, fueled by the rapid recovery of light vehicle production coupled with a very lean cost structure on the back of earlier shutdowns in 2020.

現在看下一張幻燈片上調整後的營業利潤率橋。 2021 年第四季度，我們調整後的營業收入為 1.77 億美元，比去年同期下降 43%。 2020 年第四季度異常強勁，調整後的營業收入達到創紀錄的 3.11 億美元，這得益於輕型汽車生產的快速恢復以及 2020 年早些時候停工導致的非常精益的成本結構。

Cost for recalls was $55 million lower than Q4 last year. The impact of raw material price changes was a negative $60 million in the quarter year-on-year. Foreign exchange impacted the operating profit negatively by (inaudible) million, mainly as a result of the fall of the Turkish lira. Support from governments in connection with the pandemic was $3 million lower in the fourth quarter compared to last year.

召回成本比去年第四季度低 5500 萬美元。本季度原材料價格變動的影響為負 6,000 萬美元。外匯對營業利潤的負面影響（聽不清）百萬，主要是由於土耳其里拉貶值。與去年相比，第四季度政府對大流行的支持減少了 300 萬美元。

SG&A and RD&E net of government support was $3 million higher, mainly lower sales but also high call of volatility and cost inflation, for instance, related to logistics and utilities impacted our operations negatively in the quarter. Excluding foreign exchange, raw material cost increases and governmental support, the adjusted operating income leverage was approximately 28% on the organic sales decline. The 28% decremental margin is at the high end of our communicated normal range, impacted by unpredictable customer call-offs and the fact that the fourth quarter 2020 was exceptionally strong.

扣除政府支持後的 SG&A 和 RD&E 增加了 300 萬美元，主要是銷售額下降，但與物流和公用事業相關的高波動性和成本通脹對本季度的運營產生了負面影響。剔除外匯、原材料成本增加和政府支持，調整後的營業收入槓桿約為 28%，因有機銷售額下降。 28% 的遞減幅度處於我們傳達的正常範圍的高端，受到不可預測的客戶取消以及 2020 年第四季度異常強勁這一事實的影響。

Looking on the full year 2021 sales performance on the next slide. I'm very pleased that all regions showed organic sales outperformance in 2021. This was achieved as we continue to execute on our strong order book. In North America, we outperformed by 5 percentage points, and in Europe by 12 percentage points. In China, we outperformed by 7 percentage points despite high-end vehicles being more affected by the semiconductor shortage. The 7 percentage points outperformance in Japan was substantially higher than in previous years.

在下一張幻燈片中查看 2021 年全年的銷售業績。我很高興所有地區在 2021 年都表現出有機銷售業績。這是因為我們繼續執行我們強勁的訂單。在北美，我們高出 5 個百分點，在歐洲高出 12 個百分點。在中國，儘管高端汽車受半導體短缺的影響更大，但我們的表現仍高出 7 個百分點。日本的表現比往年高出 7 個百分點。

Looking now on the next slide, our key figures for the full year 2021. 2021 was again a turbulent year with significantly lower light vehicle production than expected in the beginning of the year mainly due to shortages of semiconductors. Our net sales were $8.2 billion, with sales increasing organically by 8%, in line with the latest guidance despite LVP being virtually flat year-over-year. The adjusted operating income was increased by 42% to $683 million. The adjusted operating margin was 8.3% compared to our latest guidance of around 8%. The operating cash flow was $754 million compared to the guidance of around $700 million, and earnings per share more than doubled to $4.96. And lastly, dividends of $1.88 were paid.

現在看下一張幻燈片，我們的 2021 年全年關鍵數據。2021 年再次是動蕩的一年，輕型汽車產量明顯低於年初的預期，主要是由於半導體短缺。我們的淨銷售額為 82 億美元，銷售額有機增長 8%，符合最新指引，儘管 LVP 與去年同期幾乎持平。調整後的營業收入增長了 42%，達到 6.83 億美元。調整後的營業利潤率為 8.3%，而我們最新的指引約為 8%。運營現金流為 7.54 億美元，而指導值約為 7 億美元，每股收益翻了一番多，達到 4.96 美元。最後，支付了 1.88 美元的股息。

Looking now at the cash flow on the next slide. For the full year of 2021, operating cash flow decreased by $95 million to $754 million compared to last year as the higher net income was more than offset by changes in working capital. For the fourth quarter of 2021, operating cash flow decreased by $152 million to $317 million compared to the same period last year, mainly due to lower net income and less positive effects from deferred income taxes. Compared to prior quarter, working capital improved by $116 million, benefiting from an $89 million change in trade working capital. This was mainly a result of $145 million reduction of inventories and $68 million from increases of accounts payables but partly offset by $124 million from increased receivables. The decrease in inventories was a consequence of improving LVP volatility and measures taken to normalize inventory levels.

現在看看下一張幻燈片上的現金流。與去年相比，2021 年全年的經營現金流減少了 9500 萬美元至 7.54 億美元，因為較高的淨收入被營運資金的變化所抵消。 2021年第四季度，經營現金流較去年同期減少1.52億美元至3.17億美元，主要是由於淨利潤下降和遞延所得稅的積極影響較小。與上一季度相比，營運資本增加了 1.16 億美元，這得益於貿易營運資本的 8900 萬美元變化。這主要是由於庫存減少了 1.45 億美元，應付賬款增加了 6800 萬美元，但部分被應收賬款增加的 1.24 億美元抵消了。庫存減少是由於 LVP 波動性改善以及為使庫存水平正常化而採取的措施的結果。

For the full year 2021, capital expenditures increased by $114 million, which mainly reflects that the level in the prior year was still low due to the pandemic. In relation to sales, CapEx net was 5.5% in 2021 versus 4.6% in 2020. For the fourth quarter, capital expenditures increased by 38% to $153 million. Net capital expenditure in relation to sales was 7.2% versus 4.4% a year earlier.

2021年全年資本支出增加1.14億美元，主要反映受疫情影響，上年水平仍偏低。就銷售額而言，2021 年資本支出淨額為 5.5%，而 2020 年為 4.6%。第四季度，資本支出增加 38% 至 1.53 億美元。與銷售相關的淨資本支出為 7.2%，而去年同期為 4.4%。

For the full year 2021, free cash flow was $300 million compared to $509 million a year earlier driven by the lower operating cash flow and higher capital expenditure. And in the fourth quarter 2021, free cash flow was $164 million, and also here impacted by lower operating cash flow and higher capital expenditure. The cash conversion for the full year 2021 was 69%.

2021 年全年的自由現金流為 3 億美元，而去年同期為 5.09 億美元，這是由於較低的運營現金流和較高的資本支出所致。在 2021 年第四季度，自由現金流為 1.64 億美元，這也受到了較低的運營現金流和較高的資本支出的影響。 2021 年全年的現金轉換率為 69%。

Now looking on our leverage ratio development on the next slide. In the past 2 years, we have managed a very difficult market environment with significant declines in light vehicle production, raw material price increases and low demand visibility as well as severe disruptions of global supply chains. And still, we have reduced our net debt by more than $750 million since mid-2019, and thereby recovered to a balance sheet position that is in line with our target. The leverage ratio at the end of December 2021 was 1.2x, a significant improvement since the peak of 2.9x in 2020. In the quarter, our 12-month trailing adjusted EBITDA decreased by $140 million, approximately balanced by the net debt decrease of $148 million.

現在在下一張幻燈片中查看我們的槓桿率發展。在過去的兩年裡，我們應對了非常困難的市場環境，輕型汽車產量大幅下降、原材料價格上漲、需求可見度低以及全球供應鏈嚴重中斷。儘管如此，自 2019 年年中以來，我們已將淨債務減少了超過 7.5 億美元，從而恢復到符合我們目標的資產負債表狀況。 2021 年 12 月末的槓桿率為 1.2 倍，自 2020 年 2.9 倍的峰值以來有了顯著改善。在本季度，我們 12 個月的追踪調整後 EBITDA 減少了 1.4 億美元，與淨債務減少 148 美元大致平衡百萬。

Now looking at the raw material development on to the next slide, supply-demand imbalances continued to drive prices of raw materials higher during the year. Cost increases from -- for raw materials generated a headwind of $60 million or 3 percentage points to our operating margin in the fourth quarter. In 2021, we limited the impact from raw materials to around 130 basis points or around $105 million, of which $100 million came in the second half of the year. For the full year 2022, we expect raw material costs to amount around 3 percentage points in operating margin headwind, with around 5 percentage points year-over-year impact in the first half and around 1 to 2 percentage points in the second half year. Given this exceptional period of high raw material prices, we believe that customer recoveries will offset some of these expected raw material cost increases. It will take time to see the results of these efforts, and we do not expect to see much results until the second half of 2022. For commercial reasons, we will not discuss the anticipated recovery or its nature at this time.

從原材料發展來看，供需失衡繼續推動原材料價格在年內走高。原材料成本增加對第四季度的營業利潤率產生了 6000 萬美元或 3 個百分點的不利影響。 2021年，我們將原材料的影響限制在130個基點左右或1.05億美元左右，其中1億美元來自下半年。對於 2022 年全年，我們預計原材料成本對營業利潤率的不利影響約為 3 個百分點，上半年的同比影響約為 5 個百分點，下半年約為 1 至 2 個百分點。鑑於這一原材料價格高企的特殊時期，我們認為客戶的回收將抵消部分預期的原材料成本上漲。這些努力的結果需要時間才能看到，我們預計要到 2022 年下半年才能看到太多結果。出於商業原因，我們目前不會討論預期的複蘇或其性質。

On to the next slide. Through a number of actions, we have mitigated some of the negative effects from the lower sales and the cost inflation during 2021. These actions include activities such as adjusting production, shortening workweek hours and furloughing personnel. This includes, for example, footprint and capacity alignment in Europe as well as moving over at functions to best cost countries in Americas. We have also initiated further footprint adjustments in Japan and in the rest of Asia. In total, we have reduced head count by over 8,000 since the beginning of the year, of which 1,400 were in the fourth quarter. Other strict measures include management of inventories and payables, negotiating with suppliers and customers to mitigate impacts of raw materials and high call of volatility. Our supply chain management teams have been working hard to balance inventories to actual demand. During the quarter, production planning accuracy improved from November as customer call loss are more stable than before.

轉到下一張幻燈片。通過一系列行動，我們減輕了 2021 年銷售額下降和成本上漲帶來的一些負面影響。這些行動包括調整生產、縮短工作時間和解僱人員等活動。例如，這包括歐洲的足跡和容量調整，以及將職能轉移到美洲成本最高的國家。我們還在日本和亞洲其他地區啟動了進一步的足跡調整。自年初以來，我們總共減少了 8,000 多人，其中 1,400 人是在第四季度。其他嚴格的措施包括管理庫存和應付賬款，與供應商和客戶進行談判以減輕原材料和高波動性的影響。我們的供應鏈管理團隊一直在努力平衡庫存與實際需求。在本季度，由於客戶來電損失比以前更加穩定，生產計劃的準確性比 11 月有所提高。

This concludes 2021. And now switching to '22. I hand it back to Mikael.

到 2021 年結束。現在切換到 22 年。我把它還給了 Mikael。

Thank you, Fredrik. Looking now at the LVP development on the next slide. For the first 3 quarters of 2022, global LVP is expected to remain on a similar level as we saw in Q4, at just below 20 million units per quarter. This level should be achievable, assuming no further deterioration of component availability. In North America, the industry continues to struggle to meet consumer demand for new vehicles due to the shortage of semiconductor. Inventory of new vehicles in the U.S. ended December around 1 million units, the lowest level seen for at least 35 years.

謝謝你，弗雷德里克。現在看下一張幻燈片上的 LVP 開發。 2022 年前三個季度，全球 LVP 預計將保持在與我們在第四季度看到的相似水平，每季度略低於 2000 萬台。假設組件可用性沒有進一步惡化，這個水平應該是可以實現的。在北美，由於半導體短缺，該行業繼續努力滿足消費者對新車的需求。截至 12 月，美國新車庫存約為 100 萬輛，為至少 35 年來的最低水平。

Despite healthy underlying demand trends in Europe, component shortage meant that registrations have not returned to the pre-pandemic level. This has led to record long waiting times for new vehicles. In China, we saw a rebound in December for light vehicle sales, indicating an easening of semiconductor chip shortages. As component availability appear to be improving somewhat, we expect a good demand and low inventories to support the recovery in LVP in 2022. IHS Markit expects that the global LVP will be around 80 million units in 2022, a 9% increase over 2021. However, we still see the component availability as a limiting factor for the recovery. We expect a positive regional mix as most growth is expected to come in high content per vehicle markets, such as Western Europe and North America. Where possible, OEMs will likely continue to prioritize production of vehicles with no or low CO2 levels as well as larger vehicles.

儘管歐洲的潛在需求趨勢健康，但零部件短缺意味著註冊量尚未恢復到大流行前的水平。這導致新車等待時間創紀錄。在中國，我們看到 12 月輕型汽車銷量反彈，表明半導體芯片短缺情況有所緩解。由於組件可用性似乎有所改善，我們預計良好的需求和低庫存將支持 2022 年 LVP 的複蘇。IHS Markit 預計 2022 年全球 LVP 將在 8000 萬件左右，比 2021 年增長 9%。但是，我們仍然將組件可用性視為恢復的限制因素。我們預計區域組合將是積極的，因為大多數增長預計將來自每輛車市場的高含量，例如西歐和北美。在可能的情況下，原始設備製造商可能會繼續優先生產無二氧化碳或二氧化碳含量低的車輛以及更大的車輛。

Turning to the next slide. Here, you see some of the key models supporting the strong sales growth and outperformance we expect for 2022. These models are expected to account for 1/4 of our organic sales growth during the year. Most of these models were launched in 2021. Some are yet to be launched, including the Chevrolet Silverado. New steering wins on several new and existing (inaudible) vehicles are also to be launched. Our content per vehicle on these 12 models is in the range of USD 140 to USD 400. According to IHS Markit, global LVP in 2022 is expected to increase by approximately 9% with a positive region mix for Autoliv. The mix is expected to provide 2 to 3 percentage points growth over market. We also expect CPV growth of around 2%. We foresee substantial sales outperformance in all major regions in 2022. Japan and China are expected to be the markets for us with the highest outperformance followed by Europe and North America.

轉到下一張幻燈片。在這裡，您會看到一些支持我們預計 2022 年強勁銷售增長和出色表現的關鍵模型。這些模型預計將占我們年內有機銷售增長的 1/4。其中大部分車型於 2021 年推出。其中一些尚未推出，包括雪佛蘭 Silverado。還將推出幾款新的和現有的（聽不見的）車輛的新轉向勝利。我們在這 12 款車型上每輛車的含量在 140 美元到 400 美元之間。根據 IHS Markit 的數據，預計 2022 年全球 LVP 將增長約 9%，其中奧托立夫的區域組合是積極的。預計該組合將比市場提供 2 至 3 個百分點的增長。我們還預計 CPV 將增長約 2%。我們預計 2022 年所有主要地區的銷售業績都將大幅領先。日本和中國預計將成為我們表現最出色的市場，其次是歐洲和北美。

Backed by these recent product launches, strong rebound in global LVP and a positive light vehicle production mix, we expect sales to increase organically by around 20%. Looking to our expected margin development for 2022 on next slide. Our strategic initiatives continue to yield good results, and we are confident in our 2022, 2024 targets. In 2021, we reduced headcount by 11%, and we will continue a strict cost control in 2022, as previously outlined by Fredrik. This includes executing on capacity alignments, footprint optimization, strategic initiatives and customer recoveries partly offset by cost inflation from wages, logistics and energy. The expected sales increase should bring strong margin improvement support while rising raw material costs is expected to amount to around 3 percentage points in operating margin headwind with a significantly larger year-over-year impact in first half. We expect customer recoveries to offset some of these expected raw material cost increases, mainly in the second half year. This would lead to an improved adjusted operating margin for the full year 2022 of around 9.5% compared to 8.3% in the prior year.

在這些最近的產品發布、全球 LVP 的強勁反彈和積極的輕型汽車生產組合的支持下，我們預計銷售額將有機增長 20% 左右。在下一張幻燈片上展望我們對 2022 年的預期利潤率發展。我們的戰略舉措繼續產生良好效果，我們對 2022 年、2024 年的目標充滿信心。 2021 年，我們將員工人數減少了 11%，我們將在 2022 年繼續嚴格控製成本，正如 Fredrik 之前所概述的那樣。這包括執行產能調整、足跡優化、戰略舉措和客戶恢復，部分被工資、物流和能源的成本膨脹所抵消。預期的銷售增長應會帶來強勁的利潤率改善支持，而原材料成本上漲預計將對營業利潤率造成約 3 個百分點的不利影響，上半年的同比影響將顯著增加。我們預計客戶的回收將抵消部分預期的原材料成本增加，主要是在下半年。這將導致 2022 年全年調整後的營業利潤率從上一年的 8.3% 提高到 9.5% 左右。

Our adjusted operating margin outlook may still be impacted by supply chain disruption in the automotive industry and potential risk of surging COVID cases and its effect on us and automotive industry.

我們調整後的營業利潤率前景可能仍會受到汽車行業供應鏈中斷和新冠病毒病例激增的潛在風險及其對我們和汽車行業的影響的影響。

Looking at the detailed indications on the next slide. Our full year 2022 indications exclude cost for capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters and other discrete items. Our full year indication is based on the LVP growth assumption of around 9% compared to 2021. We expect sales to increase organically by around 20%. Currency translation effects are assumed to be around 3% negative. We expect an adjusted operating margin of around 9.5%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD 950 million.

查看下一張幻燈片上的詳細指示。我們的 2022 年全年指標不包括產能調整、反壟斷相關事項和其他離散項目的成本。我們的全年指標基於與 2021 年相比約 9% 的 LVP 增長假設。我們預計銷售額將有機增長約 20%。假設貨幣換算效應約為 3% 為負。我們預計調整後的營業利潤率約為 9.5%。經營現金流預計約為 9.5 億美元。

Turning the slide to look at our 2022 priorities. The health and safety of our employees is our first priority, while continuing with more activities to further improve efficiency. We will also continue our efforts of flawless execution of new launches, improving customer satisfaction further, and thereby supporting our new and stronger market position. Through our capital efficiency program, we aim to unlock capital from receivables, inventory and payables for other users. Combined with the execution of our strategic plan, this should lead to a strong cash flow generation, which sets Autoliv up for attractive shareholder value creation by executing on our strategic initiatives, footprint optimization and negotiating compensations from OEMs, we will mitigate headwinds from raw materials and cost inflation. We also aim to grow mobility safety solutions, supporting our growth targets beyond 2024. To progress towards our climate target, we will focus on increased resource efficiency and reduction of our carbon footprint. I will now hand it back to Anders.

轉動幻燈片來看看我們 2022 年的優先事項。員工的健康和安全是我們的首要任務，同時繼續開展更多活動以進一步提高效率。我們還將繼續努力完美執行新產品，進一步提高客戶滿意度，從而支持我們新的和更強大的市場地位。通過我們的資本效率計劃，我們旨在為其他用戶從應收賬款、庫存和應付賬款中釋放資本。結合我們戰略計劃的執行，這應該會帶來強勁的現金流產生，這將使奧托立夫通過執行我們的戰略計劃、足跡優化和與原始設備製造商談判補償來創造有吸引力的股東價值，我們將減輕原材料的不利影響和成本膨脹。我們還致力於發展移動安全解決方案，支持我們在 2024 年後的增長目標。為了實現我們的氣候目標，我們將專注於提高資源效率和減少碳足跡。我現在把它還給安德斯。

Thank you, Mikael. Turning the page. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions. I'll turn it back to Mark.

謝謝你，米凱爾。翻頁。我們對今天的財報電話會議的正式評論到此結束，我們想打開電話提問。我會把它轉回給馬克。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

And our first question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner of Deutsche Bank.

我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Emmanuel Rosner。

I have 2 questions. The first one is around the revenue outlook. So very pleased and positively surprised to see your expect 11% growth of the market in 2022 as well as your confirmation that you're on track for the midterm targets. At the same time, just at the recent Capital Markets Day, you had sort of tweaked back down your growth over market midterm framework to just 4 points a year or so on average. So based on the cadence of your backlog, and sort of like the new business that you have won, would you expect sort of like the rest of the horizon to be below average in (inaudible) market?

我有 2 個問題。第一個是圍繞收入前景。很高興看到您預計 2022 年市場將增長 11%，並確認您正在實現中期目標。與此同時，就在最近的資本市場日，你已經將市場中期框架的增長率下調至平均每年 4 個百分點左右。因此，根據您積壓的節奏，有點像您贏得的新業務，您是否會期望在（聽不清的）市場中，其他部分會低於平均水平？

Thank you for your question. I think at the Capital Markets Day, we did not lower the expectation. We actually increased it. As you remember, in 2019, we talked about this 4% to 5% over the strategic horizon. And now as we have moved forward, we talked about the LVP outperformance for '22, '23 and '24 to be LVP plus around 4%. So when you compare those numbers, it's actually a little bit higher number when you look at our latest update. So what we are saying here is that we are confirming the strong growth that we have as a result of the order book we have built over the last couple of years. So we have the right tractor here going forward, and that is what you see in our guidance for 2022 here.

謝謝你的問題。我認為在資本市場日，我們並沒有降低預期。我們實際上增加了它。如您所知，在 2019 年，我們在戰略範圍內談到了 4% 到 5%。現在，隨著我們向前邁進，我們談到 '22、'23 和 '24 的 LVP 表現優於 LVP 加上約 4%。因此，當您比較這些數字時，當您查看我們的最新更新時，它實際上是一個更高的數字。因此，我們在這裡要說的是，我們正在確認由於我們在過去幾年中建立的訂單簿而實現的強勁增長。因此，我們在這裡擁有合適的拖拉機，這就是您在我們的 2022 年指南中看到的內容。

Okay. Understood. And then second question, I guess, on the raw material headwind for this year, and then obviously partly mitigated by some recoveries. I think in some of your earlier expectations, I think you had assumed that you would have decent amount of clarity on commercial recoveries earlier in the year and potentially some of these commercial recoveries achieved already in the first or second quarter of 2022. Your latest commentary seem to indicate maybe a little bit more back-end loaded in terms of clarity on this and sort of like achieving that. Can you maybe just -- I understand you can't quantify expectation, but can you maybe just characterize what drives this, saying, why will it take sort of a little bit longer? Have your expectations directionally in terms of magnitude change in terms of the ability to recover commodities?

好的。明白了。然後是第二個問題，我猜是關於今年的原材料逆風，然後顯然部分被一些復甦所緩解。我認為，在您之前的一些預期中，我認為您已經假設您對今年早些時候的商業復甦有相當大的了解，並且可能在 2022 年第一季度或第二季度已經實現了其中一些商業復甦。您的最新評論似乎表明在這方面的清晰度可能會加載更多的後端，並且有點像實現這一目標。你能不能——我知道你不能量化期望，但你能不能描述一下是什麼驅動了這個，說，為什麼要花一點時間？就恢復商品的能力而言，您的預期是否有方向性的變化？

No. I don't think there's any change to what we have thought or said previously. We did have already recoveries in 2021. But as we indicated, they were at a lower levels. And then we expect not to have larger recoveries in 2022. And of course, on the smaller part of our business where we are already indexed, I mean that reset that happens already earlier during the year. So those recoveries will come in earlier. But as the bulk of it will be based on negotiations, they will have an effect more towards the second half of the year.

不，我認為我們之前的想法或言論沒有任何變化。我們確實已經在 2021 年實現了復甦。但正如我們所指出的，它們處於較低水平。然後我們預計 2022 年不會有更大的複蘇。當然，在我們已經被索引的業務的較小部分，我的意思是在今年早些時候已經發生了重置。所以這些復甦會更早到來。但由於大部分將基於談判，它們將在今年下半年產生更大的影響。

And just to be clear, is there some level of recovery baked in -- raw materials baked into this 9.5% guidance?

需要明確的是，是否有一定程度的複蘇——原材料被納入這個 9.5% 的指導？

Yes, yes. So we were -- I mean the 3 percentage point headwind we're guiding for on the raw material side is the pure headwind we're seeing on the cost side. So that is not net of any recovery. That's just a pure cost element. But if you look at the high level, the waterfall we're giving to get to the 9.5% even if you take, say, an average leverage on the incremental volume, you can also infer from that, that there is a recovery assumption also baked into the 9.5%.

是的是的。所以我們是——我的意思是我們在原材料方面引導的 3 個百分點的逆風是我們在成本方面看到的純粹逆風。所以這還沒有扣除任何復蘇。這只是一個純粹的成本要素。但是，如果你看一下高水平，即使你對增量交易量採取平均槓桿，我們給出的瀑布達到 9.5%，你也可以從中推斷，也有一個恢復假設烤成9.5%。

Our next question comes from the line of Hampus Engellau of Handelsbanken.

我們的下一個問題來自 Handelsbanken 的 Hampus Engellau。

Two questions for me. First is on the order intake. If you maybe could discuss a little bit on the drivers behind getting back to 50% market share compared to 45% in 2020. And also if there's an element of -- or how we should think about pricing in regards to stepping up in market share, again in orders? That's my first question. Second question is more related to the semi shortage. If I'm reading OEMs and looking at ICF, it seems like it's reasonable to assume that there will be similar semi shortage in the first quarter as we had in fourth quarter. And it would be interesting to hear your comments on that.

我有兩個問題。首先是關於訂單的接收。如果您可以討論一下從 2020 年 45% 的市場份額恢復到 50% 市場份額的驅動因素。以及是否存在 - 或者我們應該如何考慮在提高市場份額方面的定價，再次在訂單中？這是我的第一個問題。第二個問題與半短缺有關。如果我正在閱讀 OEM 並查看 ICF，似乎可以合理地假設第一季度將出現與第四季度類似的半短缺。聽聽您對此的評論會很有趣。

Thank you, Hampus. On the order intake, no, I think, I mean, as we said last year there, I mean, we were pleased with that order intake we had that year as well. And of course, every year, it's not the same. So -- and as you know, we don't have a market share target per se, but we need to fight for the business here, and we believe that we have a strong order book that we have continued to build, and we are heading towards around 45% market share in the future as we have indicated, and that is what we intend to defend here. But of course, defend it with healthy business, and that is what we are focusing on here. So 50% 1 year, around 45% in another year, and that's really no drama in that development of either up or down there. So we have no real differences there, I would say. So for us, the market share is not the top priority, it is to have healthy business defending our position in the market. That's our priority.

謝謝你，漢普斯。關於訂單量，不，我想，我的意思是，正如我們去年所說的那樣，我的意思是，我們對當年的訂單量也很滿意。當然，每年都不一樣。所以——如你所知，我們本身沒有市場份額目標，但我們需要在這里為業務而戰，我們相信我們有一個強大的訂單，我們會繼續建立，我們正在正如我們所指出的那樣，未來將達到 45% 左右的市場份額，這就是我們打算在這裡捍衛的。但是，當然，用健康的業務來捍衛它，這就是我們在這里關注的重點。所以一年是 50%，另一年大約是 45%，這在上下的發展中真的沒有什麼戲劇性的。所以我們在那裡沒有真正的區別，我會說。所以對我們來說，市場份額不是重中之重，重要的是要有健康的業務來捍衛我們在市場上的地位。這是我們的首要任務。

And then on the semi shortage side there I mean, I definitely believe that we -- and as you see in our indications here, also, we believe that we will have disturbances for limitations to the LVP growth due to semiconductors on the major part of 2022 as well. I think it's very difficult to have a very clear opinion when semiconductor challenges will be behind us because we all know the growing need for semiconductors, not only in automotive, but also in society in large here and -- it's a catch-up game that needs to be done here from the semiconductor manufacturers here, and that's not a quick fix. But what we think here is that we have come to some kind of more stable situation overall. And as we have commented here, we saw the volatility in the call-ups coming down towards the end of the quarter, and we believe that we will have a more stable situation. However, still growth is being hold back due to semiconductor shortage.

然後在半短缺方面，我的意思是，我絕對相信我們——正如你在我們這裡的跡像中看到的那樣，我們相信由於半導體的主要部分，我們將對 LVP 增長的限制產生干擾2022年也是如此。我認為很難有一個非常明確的觀點，當半導體挑戰將過去時，因為我們都知道對半導體的需求不斷增長，不僅在汽車領域，而且在整個社會中，而且——這是一場追趕遊戲，需要從這裡的半導體製造商那裡完成，這不是一個快速的解決方案。但我們在這裡的想法是，我們總體上已經達到了某種更穩定的局面。正如我們在這裡評論的那樣，我們看到徵召的波動性在本季度末有所下降，我們相信我們的情況會更加穩定。然而，由於半導體短缺，增長仍受阻。

Our next question comes from the line of Victoria Greer at Morgan Stanley. .

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Victoria Greer。 .

A couple of questions from me, please. I wanted to come back to your top line guidance, please. So production, 9% in LVP based on IHS and then making it up to 20% with 1100 basis points of outperformance. But I can think of, I guess, several factors that are probably additional to normal than just the new business in that 1100 basis points is positive geographical mix. You mentioned CPV growth of about 200 basis points. I guess some of that is coming from regional mix. Some of it will be coming from new orders. and maybe there's an element of price increases in that top line guidance also. Could you talk us through, I guess, how much of that 1100 basis points outperformance in 2022 is from these unusual factors with the geographical mix, and how much of it is straight new starts. And the second question is on share buyback, really kind of more of a procedural question than anything else. You obviously set the target across 2022 to 2024 of up to $1.5 billion. How would you expect to execute on that? Could you give us a specific number for 2022? Or should we think about this as more opportunistic?

請教我幾個問題。我想回到你的一線指導，拜託。所以生產，基於 IHS 的 LVP 為 9%，然後以 1100 個基點的優異表現將其提高到 20%。但我想，我想，除了 1100 個基點的新業務之外，還有幾個可能超出正常範圍的因素是積極的地域組合。您提到 CPV 增長約 200 個基點。我想其中一些來自區域組合。其中一些將來自新訂單。並且也許該頂線指導中也存在價格上漲的因素。我猜你能告訴我們，2022 年 1100 個基點的優異表現中有多少來自這些不尋常的因素與地理組合，有多少是直接的新開始。第二個問題是關於股票回購，實際上更像是一個程序問題。您顯然將 2022 年至 2024 年的目標設定為高達 15 億美元。您希望如何執行？你能給我們一個 2022 年的具體數字嗎？還是我們應該認為這更投機取巧？

Thank you for your questions there. I think you touched most of the components there when it comes to the outperformance. As you correctly said there, I mean, mix and content per vehicle on top of the LVP growth stands for, I would say, to 2/3 of the development here. And then the remaining part is really then our growth as a result of the order book level built here. So I think that's the short of it.

謝謝你在那裡的問題。我認為您在表現出色時觸及了那裡的大部分組件。正如你在那兒所說的那樣，我的意思是，在 LVP 增長之上，每輛車的混合和內容代表，我想說的是，這裡的發展的 2/3。然後剩下的部分實際上是我們的增長，因為這裡建立了訂單簿級別。所以我認為這是短板。

On the share buyback side, I think we have nothing to comment around that here. I mean we have presented our buyback program here, leading up to 2024. And we will take those steps towards that -- we are still committed to that, but we will not have any pre-announcement on that. We will inform in due course here when we take the different steps towards that. But we are still, of course, fully committed to that, and we believe we have more to say when we have something to talk about there.

在股票回購方面，我認為我們在這裡沒有什麼可評論的。我的意思是我們已經在這裡提出了我們的回購計劃，直到 2024 年。我們將朝著那個方向採取這些步驟——我們仍然致力於這一點，但我們不會對此有任何預先宣布。當我們為此採取不同的步驟時，我們將在適當的時候在這里通知。但是，當然，我們仍然全力以赴，並且我們相信，當我們在那裡有話要說時，我們還有更多話要說。

Our next question comes from the line of Mattias Holmberg of DNB.

我們的下一個問題來自 DNB 的 Mattias Holmberg。

Sorry to get back to the 2 -- or sorry, the 4 percentage point outperformance guidance for '22 to '24, but I didn't really understand the answer. So I would just like to get clarified. The 4%, should we expect that you grow at least 4 percentage points faster also in '23 and '24 despite the much stronger outperformance now in '22?

很抱歉回到 2 - 或者抱歉，22 到 24 年的 4 個百分點優於績效指導，但我並沒有真正理解答案。所以我想澄清一下。 4%，我們是否應該期望您在 23 和 24 年的增長速度至少快 4 個百分點，儘管現在在 22 年的表現要強得多？

Yes. I mean as I said here, I mean, we have indicated that we wouldn't -- coming 3 years, '22, '23 and '24 should have LVP outperformance of around 4% per year. Then, of course, as it comes out here, we -- it will not be a linear development. And we have only guided you here now for 2022. And when it comes to '23 and '24, we will come back there.

是的。我的意思是，正如我在這裡所說，我的意思是，我們已經表明我們不會——未來 3 年，'22、'23 和 '24 應該有每年約 4% 的 LVP 表現。然後，當然，當它在這裡出現時，我們 - 它不會是線性發展。我們現在只在 2022 年指導您。當談到 23 和 24 年時，我們會回到那裡。

Can also add a little bit? I mean as you might have seen that we did not perform as well as we had expected -- our outperformance as well as expected in the fourth quarter, largely due to a negative mix of almost taking out almost 3 percentage points. We think that some of that negative mix we will recover in 2022, which was not part of the original 4% per year growth over market of LVP as an average for '22, '23 and '24. So therefore, it might be somewhat higher actually than combined compared to what we said before, due to these mix effects that we now see positive in '22.

還可以加一點嗎？我的意思是，正如您可能已經看到的那樣，我們的表現不如我們預期的那樣好——我們在第四季度的表現和預期一樣好，主要是由於幾乎減少了近 3 個百分點的負面組合。我們認為，我們將在 2022 年恢復其中的一些負面組合，這不是 22 年、23 年和 24 年 LVP 市場平均每年 4% 的原始增長率的一部分。因此，由於我們現在在 22 年看到的這些混合效應，它實際上可能比我們之前所說的要高一些。

Great. That's clear. Second one for me. You mentioned the 50% market share on order intake. Can you say what market share you had on sales, please?

偉大的。這很清楚。第二個給我。您提到了 50% 的訂單接收市場份額。你能說一下你在銷售方面的市場份額嗎？

We are not ready with that calculation, yet. So it's more data required in order to conclude on that calculation. So we have no update when it comes to the -- let's call it, the running portfolio market share there.

我們還沒有準備好進行這種計算。因此，需要更多數據才能得出該計算的結論。所以我們沒有更新 - 讓我們稱之為那裡正在運行的投資組合市場份額。

We're still waiting for competitors report so on and some more market intelligence to conclude on those calculations here.

我們仍在等待競爭對手的報告和更多的市場情報來總結這些計算。

Our next question comes from the line of Rod Lache at Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

On the commodities, your Slide 14 charts on commodities, looks like it ends in Q3. Steel looks like it's been coming down a lot since that time frame, hot-rolled coils are now $1,100 or $1,200 a short ton. I'm wondering if that is reflected in your guidance. And maybe you can just educate us a little bit on how that flows through. What kind of lag you typically experience? And if it stayed at spot levels, how does that factor into your 12% margin target?

在商品方面，您的商品幻燈片 14 圖表看起來像是在第三季度結束。自那段時間以來，鋼鐵價格似乎已經下跌了很多，熱軋卷現在每短噸 1,100 美元或 1,200 美元。我想知道這是否反映在您的指導中。也許你可以教育我們一點關於它是如何流動的。您通常會遇到什麼樣的延遲？如果它保持在現貨水平，這對你的 12% 保證金目標有何影響？

Yes. No, I think it's a formatting thing than on the access. I believe it is Q4 that is also included in those developments. But you're right, we also here during the first part of Q1, we've seen those trends on certain commodities continuing in a positive direction for us. And the main impact that we see here for next year is continued headwinds here on steel, and that is based on how our contracts are structured, and the timing of how we roll those over. But then we also see an increased impact from nonferrous metals, mainly aluminum and magnesium, but also yarn, especially the polyester and polyamide or nylon will have a significantly larger impact in 2022 than it had in 2021.

是的。不，我認為這是格式化的事情，而不是訪問權限。我相信第四季度也包含在這些發展中。但你是對的，我們也在第一季度的第一部分在這裡，我們已經看到某些商品的這些趨勢繼續朝著積極的方向發展。我們明年在這裡看到的主要影響是鋼鐵方面的持續逆風，這是基於我們的合同結構以及我們如何展期的時間。但隨後我們也看到有色金屬（主要是鋁和鎂）以及紗線（尤其是聚酯和聚酰胺或尼龍）的影響將在 2022 年比 2021 年產生更大的影響。

So those are the main components of the raw material headwinds that we're seeing. It is -- the guidance is based on our contract structures, so the timing of when we have to roll these contracts over. And then also on the price trends that we're seeing in the market. So they're not necessarily based on our current spot price levels, as we have indicated before. There are always been time lags, how they roll into our contractual setup, and then also the duration of our contracts also play a role. But it's our best estimate at this point of time how our -- yes, the current raw material price situation and trends will be reflected in our cost base.

所以這些是我們看到的原材料逆風的主要組成部分。它是 - 該指導基於我們的合同結構，因此我們必須將這些合同展期的時間。然後還有我們在市場上看到的價格趨勢。因此，正如我們之前所指出的，它們不一定基於我們當前的現貨價格水平。總是有時間滯後，它們如何進入我們的合同設置，然後我們的合同期限也發揮了作用。但這是我們目前最好的估計——是的，當前的原材料價格狀況和趨勢將如何反映在我們的成本基礎中。

And at the moment, we're working hard both on say, operational efficiency, also value-added value engineering activities with our supply base and our customers. But also, obviously, on the commercial recoveries to ensure that we can still hit the 12% margin target that we have set out.

目前，我們正在與我們的供應基地和客戶一起努力提高運營效率，以及增值工程活動。而且，很明顯，在商業復甦方面，以確保我們仍然可以達到我們設定的 12% 的利潤率目標。

Okay. And maybe second, can you give us an update on just the status of just the automation and digitization projects. I think you had $160 million of savings from that. There was maybe $80 million of footprint changes. R&D over the next year or 2 is going to come down by about 100 basis points. So how should we -- any update on how we should be -- what we should be looking for in 2022?

好的。其次，您能否向我們介紹一下自動化和數字化項目的最新情況。我認為您從中節省了 1.6 億美元。可能有 8000 萬美元的足跡變化。未來一兩年的研發將下降約 100 個基點。那麼我們應該如何——關於我們應該如何做的任何更新——我們應該在 2022 年尋找什麼？

Yes. Again, I think in the bridge or the waterfall chart that we're giving here for 2022, you can already infer from that there are further improvements also included there from those activities. So we see that continuing automation and more operational activities with the shorter payback periods, and then the footprint activities tend to have longer payback periods, so not such a significant component or impact from the second part here on 2022. But those are the main components where we are able then to mitigate the effects from raw material headwinds that are quite significant at 3 percentage points, and still be able to give a 9.5% margin target here for next year or for this year.

是的。同樣，我認為在我們為 2022 年提供的橋樑或瀑布圖中，您已經可以從中推斷出這些活動還包括進一步的改進。因此，我們看到持續的自動化和更多的運營活動具有更短的投資回收期，然後足跡活動往往具有更長的投資回收期，因此從 2022 年的第二部分來看，這不是一個重要的組成部分或影響。但這些是主要組成部分然後，我們能夠在 3 個百分點的情況下減輕原材料逆風的影響，並且仍然能夠在此處給出明年或今年 9.5% 的利潤率目標。

Our next question comes from the line of Colin Langan at Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

Just a follow-up on the raw material question. Just want to understand this. Can you remind us the split of your exposure by steel, non-ferrous and nylon? And I would kind of anticipate maybe a 6-month lag between when maybe the spot and your contracts. So does that mean in the outlook that steel is maybe more flat in the second half of the year and then the bulk of the impact is hitting, just seems -- just any color there in terms of how that operates.

只是對原材料問題的跟進。只是想明白這一點。你能提醒我們你在鋼、有色金屬和尼龍方面的曝光嗎？而且我預計在現貨和您的合同之間可能會有 6 個月的延遲。那麼這是否意味著鋼鐵在下半年可能會更加持平，然後大部分影響正在發生，只是似乎 - 就其運作方式而言，任何顏色都存在。

Yes. On the commodity breakdown, steel is roughly 45% of our commodity exposure. That is followed by yarn or textiles. That's around 20%, followed by resins or in plastic inputs. That's around 15%. And then nonferrous metals is, yes, between 10% and 15% and then the others make up 5% to 10%. So that's the composition we have. And as you said, I mean, we were expecting the majority of the headwinds on steel to be in the first half of the year. We had very limited impact in the first half of 2021 due to our ability to postpone the impact, and also our contractual setups. But now as those contracts expire, and we have to roll them over, we will see a significant headwind in the first half and then as you say, a much lower impact in the second half on steel.

是的。在大宗商品方面，鋼鐵約占我們大宗商品敞口的 45%。其次是紗線或紡織品。這大約是 20%，其次是樹脂或塑料投入。這大約是 15%。然後有色金屬是，是的，在 10% 到 15% 之間，然後其他金屬佔 5% 到 10%。這就是我們的組成。正如你所說，我的意思是，我們預計鋼鐵行業的大部分不利因素將出現在今年上半年。由於我們推遲影響的能力以及我們的合同設置，我們在 2021 年上半年的影響非常有限。但是現在隨著這些合同到期，我們必須將它們展期，我們將在上半年看到巨大的逆風，然後如你所說，下半年對鋼鐵的影響要小得多。

Okay. So the second half is mostly the nylon and the nonferrous type of stuff hitting.

好的。所以下半場主要是尼龍和有色金屬的撞擊。

Yes. And so it's -- the impact is -- it was -- of the $105 million that we had this year, basically 3/4 almost of that was from steel. And of the 300 basis points we have for 2022, it's much more evenly spread between steel, nonferrous and textiles, yeah that's correct.

是的。所以它是 - 影響是 - 它是 - 我們今年擁有的 1.05 億美元，基本上其中 3/4 幾乎來自鋼鐵。在我們 2022 年的 300 個基點中，鋼鐵、有色金屬和紡織品之間的分佈更加均勻，是的，這是正確的。

That's very helpful. And then just to follow up on the growth over market, one of the things I struggle with is understanding product mix because 2021 seems like all the luxury, holistic stuff like that were in favor that sort of helped mix overall. How are you thinking about that in your guidance? Obviously, geographic mix makes total sense with North America and Europe outperforming. Have you factored in negative product mix? Or do you think it's going to be steady this year? Just your thoughts there would be helpful.

這很有幫助。然後只是為了跟進市場的增長，我努力的一件事是了解產品組合，因為 2021 年似乎所有像這樣的奢侈品、整體的東西都支持這種有助於整體組合的東西。你在你的指導中是怎麼想的？顯然，在北美和歐洲表現出色的情況下，地域組合完全合理。您是否考慮了負面的產品組合？或者你認為今年會穩定嗎？只是你的想法會有幫助。

No. I mean, of course, that's a part of our estimation here. And you -- I would say, right now, you have a growth in content per vehicle across the board here. I mean also the low-end vehicle, if we call them that as well as the premium has gradually increase. And I think the actually, the gap between the lower and the premiums remains as both are to a large extent as they both are growing. So that's, I would say, a minor factor there, if you look at the total development of the industry. Then of course, in a single quarter or a single month, you can have those swing depending on which modalities. But as a general -- principally, I would say, the mix effect is mainly under the regional side of things.

不，我的意思是，當然，這是我們在這裡估計的一部分。而你——我想說，現在，你的每輛車的內容全面增長。我的意思也是低端車輛，如果我們這樣稱呼它們，那麼溢價也逐漸增加。而且我認為實際上，較低和溢價之間的差距仍然存在，因為兩者在很大程度上都在增長。如果你看看這個行業的整體發展，我想說，這是一個次要因素。然後，當然，在一個季度或一個月內，您可以根據哪種方式進行調整。但總的來說，我想說的是，混合效應主要是在區域方面。

Our next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak at RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Joseph Spak。

Sorry, but one more on commodities. And I guess maybe this is a -- I just want to clarify something because I think there was maybe an assumption that fourth quarter would have been the peak for raw materials, and now clearly seems it's more first half. But I'm wondering when you talk about these numbers either absolute like $105 million in '21 or the 300 basis points in this fourth quarter versus the 500 in the first half. Is that a -- is there like a net versus gross? Because I think in answer to Emmanuel's question earlier, you mentioned the 300 basis point impact for '22 is a gross number. But when you talk about it in the actual results, is that also gross or is that netted?

對不起，還有一個關於商品的。而且我想這可能是 - 我只是想澄清一些事情，因為我認為可能有人假設第四季度將是原材料的高峰，現在顯然似乎更多是上半年。但我想知道當你談論這些數字時，無論是絕對數字，比如 21 年的 1.05 億美元，還是第四季度的 300 個基點與上半年的 500 個基點。那是 - 有沒有像淨值和總值？因為我認為在回答 Emmanuel 之前的問題時，您提到 22 年 300 個基點的影響是一個總數。但是當你在實際結果中談論它時，這也是粗略的還是淨額？

No. It's the same basis. Yes.

不，這是相同的基礎。是的。

It's the same. Okay.

一樣的。好的。

But it's -- so it's the same. It's not the full risk or exposure we would have on commodities. That would be even higher. I mean if we were transacting on spot markets and so on, the raw material impact would be higher. So there are already a lot of mitigating actions in the 300 basis points for this year or the 130 basis points for last year. And that's, I mean, delaying price increases, switching suppliers and so on. So there are already a lot of mitigating activities in the 300 basis points. But it is -- as I said, it's a gross number, how we expect to hit our P&L in terms of cost increases year-over-year from raw materials. But then the recovery part -- but the recovery part from our customers is not included. And as I said, we already had recoveries in 2021. But for commercial reasons, we prefer not to disclose those because the negotiations are ongoing.

但它是——所以它是一樣的。這不是我們對商品的全部風險或敞口。那會更高。我的意思是，如果我們在現貨市場等進行交易，原材料的影響會更大。所以今年300個基點或去年130個基點已經有很多緩解措施。那就是，我的意思是，推遲價格上漲，更換供應商等等。因此，在 300 個基點中已經有很多緩解活動。但它是 - 正如我所說，這是一個總數字，我們預計如何在原材料成本同比增長方面達到我們的損益。然後是恢復部分——但不包括我們客戶的恢復部分。正如我所說，我們已經在 2021 年實現了復甦。但出於商業原因，我們不願透露這些信息，因為談判正在進行中。

Okay. That makes sense. And then just on the comment about that you may have seen some pull forward from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. Can you just expand upon that a little bit? What -- because I guess is -- what you're trying to imply that there may have been some vehicles you ship to that maybe weren't completely assembled because they were missing components, and so they got assembled in a quarter later, which may have sort of created a mismatch in outgrowth when you sort of compare it to production? Or maybe you could talk a little bit more about your views there.

好的。這就說得通了。然後只是關於您可能已經看到從第三季度到第四季度的一些評論。你能稍微擴展一下嗎？什麼 - 因為我猜是 - 你試圖暗示可能有一些你運送到的車輛可能沒有完全組裝，因為它們缺少組件，所以它們在四分之一之後組裝，這當您將其與生產進行比較時，可能會產生一種不匹配的結果？或者，也許你可以多談談你的觀點。

Yes. I mean it's exactly right. I think as I indicated here, I mean, we have had a very volatile 2021, especially Q3 there -- where we had short-term changes to the production schedules, and we believe that some of the material that was actually called off at the end of the day were going into vehicles that were produced later in Q4. So the whole volatility situation has made it a little bit more difficult to read here. And as we have said here, I mean, we -- what we can see the production numbers for Q4 is a little bit higher than what -- on the LVP side, a little bit higher than what activity we could see from our side here. So we believe that there is effect of that, that some of the volumes in Q3 belong really to Q4 in terms of LVP.

是的。我的意思是完全正確。我認為正如我在這裡指出的那樣，我的意思是，我們經歷了一個非常不穩定的 2021 年，尤其是那裡的第三季度——我們對生產計劃進行了短期更改，我們相信一些實際上在最終將進入第四季度晚些時候生產的車輛。因此，整個波動情況使這裡的閱讀變得更加困難。正如我們在這裡所說，我的意思是，我們 - 我們可以看到第四季度的生產數字略高於 - 在 LVP 方面，略高於我們從我們這邊看到的活動.所以我們認為這是有影響的，第三季度的一些交易量在 LVP 方面確實屬於第四季度。

Maybe just a quick follow-up. How do you see recent scheduled volatility? And is your expectation of that, that will improve -- that the stability will improve as you move through the year?

也許只是一個快速的跟進。您如何看待近期的預定波動？您對此的期望是否會有所改善——隨著您這一年的發展，穩定性會有所改善？

We believe so. And as we said, towards the end of the quarter, we saw a stabilization. And when we look into 2022, we are not seeing anything that should indicate that we have increased volatility. But I mean, there is a lot of things going on in the world around us here with raw material prices, energy situations, et cetera, et cetera. So we, of course, keep a very close eye on the development here, but no indications as of today that volatility should return.

我們相信如此。正如我們所說，在本季度末，我們看到了穩定。當我們展望 2022 年時，我們沒有看到任何表明我們增加了波動性的東西。但我的意思是，我們周圍的世界發生了很多事情，包括原材料價格、能源狀況等等。因此，我們當然會密切關注這裡的發展，但截至今天沒有跡象表明波動性會再次出現。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris McNally at Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Chris McNally。

Two -- just questions around the general pace of the production recovery. The first around the orders, you talked about the 50% share. But if you actually look at the absolutes, I was kind of surprised to see that the absolute level of orders this year was back to 2019. It seems quicker than expected, also we are not expected to get back to the production levels for another year. So just if you can comment on the general pace of industry orders. I mean the numbers are the same 50%. So I know you're pleased with the 50%. But how about the -- just the RFPs that are out there?

二——只是關於生產恢復的總體速度的問題。第一個圍繞訂單，您談到了 50% 的份額。但如果你真的看絕對值，我有點驚訝地發現今年的訂單絕對水平回到了 2019 年。似乎比預期的要快，而且我們預計不會再回到生產水平。 .因此，如果您可以評論行業訂單的總體步伐。我的意思是數字是相同的 50%。所以我知道你對 50% 很滿意。但是 - 只是那裡的 RFP 怎麼樣？

Yes. I mean if I understand your question right here, I mean, the order value on the RFQs that we are winning, of course, are based on our customers' expectation on these different programs here. So I don't think you can compare it to 2019 where we have -- in terms of production schedules or anything like that. So this is for the future, and some of these programs may go into production in '24 and even in some cases beyond. But I would say, more '24, '25, '26 time horizon. So there is, of course, a different basis for that. So...

是的。我的意思是，如果我在這裡理解您的問題，我的意思是，我們贏得的 RFQ 上的訂單價值當然是基於我們的客戶對這裡這些不同程序的期望。所以我認為你不能將它與我們所擁有的 2019 年進行比較——就生產計劃或類似的東西而言。所以這是面向未來的，其中一些程序可能會在 24 年甚至在某些情況下投入生產。但我會說，更多的'24、'25、'26 時間範圍。因此，當然，這有不同的基礎。所以...

I guess my only point was we hear a lot about lack of confidence in the future, and this would sort of say that we're getting back to some level of pre-COVID normalization with the expectations of your customers.

我想我唯一的觀點是我們聽到了很多關於對未來缺乏信心的說法，這可以說是我們正在恢復到一定程度的 COVID 之前的正常化，滿足客戶的期望。

Yes. I think, I mean, the underlying demand there -- at least I don't see any doubt about the strength in that. I think we have a very strong underlying demand driven by the fact that there is a much older fleet out there, and there is replacement need. We have a several years with relatively low production, and it has not been low because of demand. It has been low because of first COVID and then semiconductor shortage and other challenges here on the materials side. And it's still hampered by the fact that the availability is not there. So underlying demand is very strong. We have pipelines, for example, in U.S. that they are on record low levels, as we indicated here. I mean 1 million vehicles. It's 2 million, 3 million just to refill that pipeline to what's normal. So very strong there. And then on top of that, also, we have the shift to electrical vehicles. So there is strong interest from consumers here to go into new vehicles with new technology here. So when the chip shortages and material shortages is behind us, we believe in a very strong recovery here.

是的。我認為，我的意思是，那裡的潛在需求——至少我認為這方面的實力沒有任何疑問。我認為我們有一個非常強大的潛在需求，這是因為那裡有一個更老的機隊，並且有更換需求。我們有幾年的產量相對較低，並且由於需求而沒有低。由於首先是 COVID，然後是半導體短缺以及材料方面的其他挑戰，它一直很低。而且它仍然受到可用性不存在的事實的阻礙。因此，潛在需求非常強勁。例如，我們在美國的管道處於創紀錄的低水平，正如我們在此指出的那樣。我的意思是100萬輛汽車。 200萬，300萬隻是為了將管道重新填充到正常水平。那裡非常強大。最重要的是，我們還轉向了電動汽車。因此，這裡的消費者對在這裡使用新技術的新車有著濃厚的興趣。因此，當芯片短缺和材料短缺已經過去時，我們相信這裡會有非常強勁的複蘇。

And maybe one other comment, we expect the -- say, the lifetime sales that we were quoting on to be even higher for 2021 at the beginning of the year. So we've seen some projects being pushed out into 2022, but we do expect at the moment that 2022 will be, say, also a step up from '21 in terms of business that will be out for sourcing from our customers.

也許還有其他評論，我們預計 - 例如，我們在年初引用的 2021 年的終生銷售額會更高。因此，我們已經看到一些項目被推遲到 2022 年，但我們目前確實預計，在從客戶那裡採購的業務方面，2022 年也將比 21 年更上一層樓。

No. I appreciate the detail. And then maybe just a little bit more near-term question about recovery, sequentially. I think on Slide 16, you talked about the next couple of quarters being relatively flat, light vehicle production. I know that's sort of what IHS has. But what's interesting is we're hearing from some of the customers like Toyota, I think is talking about April being 35% higher than February. Is there a potential that while Q1 seems pretty flat that by Q2, as you get out of sort of some of the COVID-related shutdowns that Q2 could be actually up sequentially, I know some of the other forecasts are up 4% to 5% Q1 to Q2.

不，我很欣賞細節。然後可能只是一個更近期的關於復甦的問題，依次。我認為在幻燈片 16 上，您談到接下來的幾個季度相對平穩，輕型汽車生產。我知道這就是 IHS 所擁有的。但有趣的是，我們從豐田等一些客戶那裡聽到，我認為 4 月份比 2 月份高出 35%。有沒有可能，雖然第一季度看起來很平，但到第二季度，當你擺脫一些與 COVID 相關的停工時，第二季度實際上可能會連續上升，我知道其他一些預測會上升 4% 到 5% Q1 到 Q2。

No. I think -- I mean you're referring to one customer here, and it could very well be slow for various reasons. But as an industry, it's to the best of our knowledge that what we have described here today. And once again, I think the -- I mean the pure limiting factor is the availability of material here. So if that is corrected, you can see quick step ups here. But that's the best data we have as of today. And of course, as you know, the visibility we have is not that far out in terms of (inaudible).

不，我認為 - 我的意思是您在這裡指的是一位客戶，由於各種原因，它很可能很慢。但作為一個行業，據我們所知，我們今天在這裡所描述的內容。再一次，我認為 - 我的意思是純粹的限制因素是這裡材料的可用性。因此，如果該問題得到糾正，您可以在此處查看快速升級。但這是我們今天擁有的最好的數據。當然，如您所知，就（聽不清）而言，我們所擁有的知名度並沒有那麼遙遠。

And again, the underlying assumption for the full year is that Q1, 2 and 3 will be relatively flat versus Q4 so that the industry should be able to hold up at those -- at the Q4 volumes. And then a slight increase sequentially into the fourth quarter this year.

同樣，全年的基本假設是第一季度、第二季度和第三季度將與第四季度相比相對持平，因此該行業應該能夠保持在第四季度的銷量。然後在今年第四季度連續小幅增長。

I think we have time for one more question.

我想我們還有時間再問一個問題。

That will come from the line of Sascha Gommel of Jefferies.

這將來自 Jefferies 的 Sascha Gommel。

Two quick ones, actually. The first one is on working capital. You mentioned that you see further improvement potential. So I was wondering if you can give us a bit of scope and measures for the main working capital items that you see? And then secondly, on the share buybacks, again, more procedural question. Is it a management or a Board decision like the dividend?

實際上是兩個快速的。第一個是營運資金。您提到您看到了進一步的改進潛力。所以我想知道你能否就你看到的主要營運資金項目給我們一些範圍和衡量標準？其次，關於股票回購，再次是程序性問題。是像股息一樣的管理層或董事會決定嗎？

Yes. On the dividend, it's a board decision. As you know, we have a quarterly dividend, and that's decided by the Board quarter-by-quarter.

是的。關於股息，這是董事會的決定。如您所知，我們有季度股息，這是由董事會按季度決定的。

And buybacks as well? Is buybacks a management decision?

還有回購嗎？回購是一項管理決策嗎？

Buybacks, we have a mandate from the Board and that is the mandate one that we have present up to that level. So that is an operational question after that.

回購，我們有董事會的授權，這就是我們在該級別上提出的授權。所以這是之後的操作問題。

And then on working capital, I mean, I think you can see that -- and we did talk about on the Capital Markets Day, how we're focusing, especially on accounts payables. And I think if you look at the multiyear trend. You can see a significant improvement also into 2022. And we are expecting that we will see further improvements from that here over the next few years. And then on inventory, I think we proved also here that in very, very challenging times, we were able to reduce inventory sequentially by almost $150 million, which also shows that we have a lot of focus and traction also on those initiatives. And also here, we expect to see more going forward, and I think we have a good setup for these improvements. So I think we're well on track to get to the $800 million that we've talked about with 2019 as a basis point.

然後關於營運資金，我的意思是，我認為你可以看到這一點 - 我們確實在資本市場日談到了我們如何關注，尤其是應付賬款。我想如果你看看多年的趨勢。您還可以看到到 2022 年的顯著改善。我們預計，在接下來的幾年中，我們將看到進一步的改善。然後在庫存方面，我認為我們在這裡也證明了，在非常非常具有挑戰性的時期，我們能夠連續減少近 1.5 億美元的庫存，這也表明我們對這些舉措也有很多關注和牽引力。同樣在這裡，我們希望看到更多的進展，我認為我們為這些改進做好了準備。因此，我認為我們很可能以 2019 年為基點達到我們所討論的 8 億美元。

So that was the last question ? So...

所以這是最後一個問題？所以...

Okay. Thank you very much. Before we end today's call, I would like to say that we are operating from a position of strength in many aspects, including market position, growth and dedicated employees. Unfortunately, there will be millions of vehicle collisions in 2022. Autoliv will continue to focus on our vision of saving more lives, which is our key contribution to sustainable society.

好的。非常感謝你。在結束今天的電話會議之前，我想說的是，我們在許多方面都處於優勢地位，包括市場地位、增長和敬業的員工。不幸的是，2022 年將發生數百萬輛汽車碰撞事故。奧托立夫將繼續專注於我們拯救更多生命的願景，這是我們對可持續社會的重要貢獻。

Our first quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, April 22, 2022. Thank you, everyone, for participating on today's call. We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv. Until next time. Stay safe.

我們的第一季度財報電話會議定於 2022 年 4 月 22 日星期五舉行。感謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們衷心感謝您對 Autoliv 的持續關注。直到下一次。注意安全。