Autoliv Inc (ALV) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Welcome to the Q1 2022 Autoliv Inc. Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Today, I am pleased to present President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; and Group CFO, Fredrik Westin. I will now hand over to VP, Investor Relations, Anders Trapp. Please begin your meeting.

    歡迎參加 2022 年第一季度 Autoliv Inc. 收益電話會議。 (操作員說明)今天,我很高興向大家介紹總裁兼首席執行官 Mikael Bratt;和集團首席財務官 Fredrik Westin。我現在將移交給投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。請開始您的會議。

  • Anders Trapp - VP of IR

    Anders Trapp - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Mark. Welcome, everyone, to our first quarter 2022 financial results earnings presentation. On this call, we have our President and CEO, Mikael Bratt; and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin; and I am Anders Trapp, Vice President of Investor Relations.

    謝謝你,馬克。歡迎大家參加我們的 2022 年第一季度財務業績報告。在這次電話會議上,我們有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Mikael Bratt;和我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin;我是投資者關係副總裁 Anders Trapp。

  • During today's earnings call, our CEO will provide a brief overview of our first quarter results as well as provide an update on our general business and market conditions. Following Mikael, Fredrik will provide further details and commentary around the financials. We will then remain available to respond to your questions. And as usual, the slides are available at autoliv.com.

    在今天的財報電話會議上,我們的首席執行官將簡要概述我們的第一季度業績,並提供我們一般業務和市場狀況的最新情況。繼 Mikael 之後,Fredrik 將提供有關財務狀況的更多詳細信息和評論。然後,我們將繼續回复您的問題。和往常一樣,這些幻燈片可在 autoliv.com 上獲得。

  • Turning to the next slide. We have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference some non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly press release available at autoliv.com and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC.

    轉到下一張幻燈片。我們有安全港聲明,它是本演示文稿的一個組成部分,包括以下問答。在演示過程中,我們將參考一些非美國公認會計原則的措施。歷史美國 GAAP 與非美國 GAAP 措施的對賬在我們的季度新聞稿中披露,該新聞稿可在 autoliv.com 和將提交給 SEC 的 10-Q 中獲得。

  • Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 p.m. Central European Time. (Operator Instructions)

    最後,我應該提一下,這次電話會議打算在下午 3:00 結束。中歐時間。 (操作員說明)

  • I now hand it over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.

    我現在把它交給我們的首席執行官 Mikael Bratt。

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. The ongoing war in Ukraine is an unconceivable tragedy that has resulted in a massive humanitarian crisis, and my thoughts goes to all those affected. We also continue to experience tough COVID-19 developments and lockdowns in China that are affecting many people, including our employees. I would like to thank all of our employees for dealing with and managing through these tough and unprecedented times.

    謝謝你,安德斯。看下一張幻燈片。烏克蘭正在進行的戰爭是一場難以想像的悲劇,導致了一場大規模的人道主義危機,我對所有受影響的人深表同情。我們還在中國繼續經歷艱難的 COVID-19 發展和封鎖,這影響了包括我們員工在內的許多人。我要感謝我們所有的員工在這些艱難和前所未有的時期中應對和管理。

  • In the quarter, we have managed a very difficult market environment with significant declines in light vehicle production towards the end of the quarter, significant cost inflation and low demand visibility as well as severe disruptions of the global supply chain. Despite adverse regional mix effects, our sales outperformed global LVP by around 3 percentage points according to IHS Markit.

    在本季度,我們應對了非常艱難的市場環境,到本季度末輕型汽車產量大幅下降、成本大幅上漲、需求可見度低以及全球供應鏈嚴重中斷。根據 IHS Markit 的數據,儘管存在不利的區域混合效應,我們的銷售額仍比全球 LVP 高出約 3 個百分點。

  • In the quarter, raw material cost increases impacted our operating margin negatively by more than 5 percentage points, and premium freight costs also increased substantially. The higher premium freight cost was a result of logistical bottlenecks and volatile customer call-offs.

    本季度,原材料成本上漲對我們的營業利潤率產生了超過 5 個百分點的負面影響,溢價運費也大幅增加。較高的溢價運費是物流瓶頸和不穩定的客戶取消的結果。

  • In the quarter, we achieved the targeted level of customer compensation, which still was relatively limited compared to the cost increase level. As a result, sales and profitability were lower than expected. In response to the ongoing challenging market conditions, we further strengthened our cost control measures, implemented a hiring freeze and accelerated other cost savings and footprint activities. Despite the challenging environment, our cash flow was positive, and our balance sheet remains strong.

    本季度,我們實現了客戶補償的目標水平,與成本增加水平相比仍然相對有限。因此,銷售額和盈利能力低於預期。為應對當前充滿挑戰的市場條件,我們進一步加強了成本控制措施,實施了招聘凍結,並加快了其他成本節約和足跡活動。儘管環境充滿挑戰,但我們的現金流為正,資產負債表依然強勁。

  • The leverage ratio remains within our targeted range. In the quarter, we paid $0.64 per share in dividend and initiated the stock repurchase program.

    槓桿率保持在我們的目標範圍內。本季度,我們支付了每股 0.64 美元的股息,並啟動了股票回購計劃。

  • Looking at the rest of the year. We expect increased sales outperformance versus light vehicle production. It is our plan and ambition that our product price increases, completed with strict cost control measures, would gradually offset the cost increases. Therefore, we expect a sequential margin improvement in the second half of the year, supporting a trajectory towards our midterm targets.

    看看今年剩下的時間。我們預計銷售表現將優於輕型汽車產量。我們的計劃和雄心是,我們的產品價格上漲,加上嚴格的成本控制措施,將逐步抵消成本上漲。因此,我們預計下半年利潤率將連續改善,支持我們實現中期目標的軌跡。

  • Looking now on the direct effects on the war in Ukraine on the next slide. Our hearts are with everyone affected by the massive humanitarian crisis created by the war in Ukraine. The war has significantly affected the automotive industry, especially in Europe. We have no operations in Ukraine, but we have identified 4 sub-suppliers in Ukraine. We are in the process of transferring our component procurement out of Ukraine, and we have not stopped any of our customers.

    現在看看下一張幻燈片對烏克蘭戰爭的直接影響。我們的心與受烏克蘭戰爭造成的大規模人道主義危機影響的每一個人同在。戰爭對汽車工業產生了重大影響,尤其是在歐洲。我們在烏克蘭沒有業務,但我們在烏克蘭確定了 4 家次級供應商。我們正在將我們的組件採購轉移出烏克蘭,我們還沒有停止我們的任何客戶。

  • However, the war has affected our customers' ability to produce vehicles, leading to lost volumes and more volatile customer call-offs. As a result, we lost almost 25% of expected sales in March in Europe, significantly affecting our operational efficiency.

    然而,這場戰爭影響了我們客戶的車輛生產能力,導致銷量下降和客戶取消更不穩定。結果,我們在 3 月份在歐洲損失了近 25% 的預期銷售額,極大地影響了我們的運營效率。

  • Autoliv has one production plant in Russia with around 200 employees. In 2021, our sales in Russia reflected less than 1% of our global net sales. As this is a very volatile and challenging situation, we continue to monitor developments closely, and we are reviewing our presence in Russia.

    奧托立夫在俄羅斯擁有一家生產工廠,約有 200 名員工。 2021 年,我們在俄羅斯的銷售額不到我們全球淨銷售額的 1%。由於這是一個非常不穩定和具有挑戰性的情況,我們將繼續密切關注事態發展,我們正在審查我們在俄羅斯的存在。

  • Looking now on the financial overview on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales of $2.1 billion was 5% lower than in Q1 2021, due to negative currency effects and lower global light vehicle production. Adjusted operating income, excluding costs for capacity alignment, fell from $237 million to $68 million. The adjusted operating margin was 3.2% in the quarter.

    現在看下一張幻燈片的財務概覽。由於負面貨幣影響和全球輕型汽車產量下降,我們的合併淨銷售額為 21 億美元,比 2021 年第一季度下降 5%。調整後的營業收入(不包括產能調整成本)從 2.37 億美元降至 6800 萬美元。本季度調整後的營業利潤率為 3.2%。

  • The lower operating margin was mainly a result of rising costs for raw materials, higher costs for freight, especially premium freight and lower-than-expected light vehicle production. Operating cash flow was $70 million, which was $116 million lower than the same period last year, mainly due to the lower net income.

    營業利潤率下降主要是由於原材料成本上升、運費(尤其是優質運費)成本上升以及輕型汽車產量低於預期所致。經營現金流為 7000 萬美元,比去年同期減少 1.16 億美元,主要是由於淨利潤較低。

  • Looking now on the organic sales development on the next slide. Our sales in the quarter came in lower than expected, with light vehicle production in all regions disappointing, except rest of Asia.

    現在看下一張幻燈片上的有機銷售發展。我們本季度的銷售額低於預期,除亞洲其他地區外,所有地區的輕型汽車產量都令人失望。

  • According to IHS Markit, global light vehicle production declined by 4% year-over-year in the quarter. This was 2 percentage points worse than expected at the beginning of the quarter. As a result of the declining light vehicle production, our first quarter sales declined organically by 1%. This was 3 percentage points better than the light vehicle production according to IHS Markit.

    根據 IHS Markit 的數據,本季度全球輕型汽車產量同比下降 4%。這比本季度初的預期低2個百分點。由於輕型汽車產量下降,我們第一季度的銷售額有機下降了 1%。根據 IHS Markit 的數據,這比輕型汽車產量高出 3 個百分點。

  • The outperformance came despite the very negative regional mix impact of more than 8 percentage points in the quarter as a result of production in low safety content markets growing. Supported by recent launches and more positive regional mix as well as a positive pricing, we see sales outperforming LVP substantially more for the rest of the year.

    儘管由於低安全含量市場的產量增長,本季度對區域組合的影響非常負面,超過 8 個百分點,但仍取得了優異的表現。在最近的發布和更積極的區域組合以及積極的定價的支持下,我們認為今年剩餘時間的銷售額將大大超過 LVP。

  • Based on the latest light vehicle production numbers from IHS Markit, we outperformed in Europe by 12 percentage points, in Japan by 7 percentage points and in Americas by 3 percentage points. In China, sales underperformed by 2%. The reason for the underperformance in China was mainly the mix effects from production of low-end vehicles growing by 17%.

    根據 IHS Markit 的最新輕型汽車產量數據,我們在歐洲的表現領先 12 個百分點,在日本領先 7 個百分點,在美洲領先 3 個百分點。在中國,銷售額下降了 2%。中國表現不佳的原因主要是低端汽車產量增長17%的混合效應。

  • For 2022, we are confident of a solid outperformance in all major regions. On the next slide, we see some key model launches from the first quarter. In the quarter, we had a high number of launches, especially in Japan and China. The models shown on this slide have an Autoliv content per vehicle from approximately $50 to more than $400.

    對於 2022 年,我們有信心在所有主要地區都有穩健的表現。在下一張幻燈片中,我們看到了第一季度推出的一些關鍵型號。在本季度,我們推出了大量產品,尤其是在日本和中國。這張幻燈片上顯示的模型每輛車的 Autoliv 內容從大約 50 美元到 400 多美元不等。

  • The long-term trend to higher CPV is supported by the introduction of front center airbags, battery cutoff switches and pedestrian protection airbags. We are also launching side airbags and curtain airbags on vehicles produced in India, exemplified here by the Suzuki Glanza, supporting the Indian government's intention to make side protection airbags mandatory later this year.

    前排中央安全氣囊、電池切斷開關和行人保護安全氣囊的推出支持了更高 CPV 的長期趨勢。我們還在印度生產的車輛上推出了側面安全氣囊和簾式安全氣囊,以鈴木格蘭扎為例,支持印度政府在今年晚些時候強制使用側面保護安全氣囊的意圖。

  • I will now hand it over to our CFO, Fredrik Westin, who will talk about the financials on the next few slides.

    我現在將把它交給我們的首席財務官 Fredrik Westin,他將在接下來的幾張幻燈片中討論財務狀況。

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • Thank you, Mikael. This slide highlights our key figures for the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2021. Our net sales were $2.1 billion. This was a 5% decrease compared to the same quarter last year.

    謝謝你,米凱爾。這張幻燈片突出顯示了我們 2022 年第一季度與 2021 年第一季度相比的關鍵數據。我們的淨銷售額為 21 億美元。與去年同期相比,下降了 5%。

  • Gross profit declined by 37% to $288 million, while the gross margin decreased to 13.6%. The gross margin decrease was primarily driven by raw materials, premium freight and the volatile and lower-than-expected light vehicle production.

    毛利潤下降 37% 至 2.88 億美元,而毛利率下降至 13.6%。毛利率下降的主要原因是原材料、優質運費以及波動性和低於預期的輕型汽車產量。

  • The reported operating income decreased to $134 million from $237 million. In the quarter, capacity alignments had a $66 million positive impact on the operating profit. As a result, the adjusted operating income decreased to $68 million from $237 million. The adjusted operating margin declined to 3.2%.

    報告的營業收入從 2.37 億美元降至 1.34 億美元。本季度,產能調整對營業利潤產生了 6600 萬美元的積極影響。因此,調整後的營業收入從 2.37 億美元降至 6800 萬美元。調整後的營業利潤率下降至 3.2%。

  • The operating cash flow was $70 million. Earnings per share diluted decreased by $0.85, where the main drivers were $1.39 from lower adjusted operating income, partly mitigated by $0.49 from capacity alignment, $0.05 from financial items and $0.03 from lower tax.

    經營現金流為 7000 萬美元。稀釋後的每股收益減少了 0.85 美元,其中主要驅動因素是調整後的營業收入減少了 1.39 美元,產能調整減少了 0.49 美元,財務項目減少了 0.05 美元,稅收減少了 0.03 美元。

  • Our adjusted return on capital employed declined to 7%, and the adjusted return on equity to 6%. We paid a dividend of $0.64 per share in the quarter, same as in the previous quarter, and repurchased around 230,000 shares for $18 million under our 3-year stock repurchase program.

    我們調整後的資本回報率下降至 7%,調整後的股本回報率下降至 6%。我們在本季度支付了每股 0.64 美元的股息,與上一季度相同,並根據我們的 3 年股票回購計劃以 1800 萬美元的價格回購了約 230,000 股股票。

  • Looking on to the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the first quarter of 2022, our adjusted operating income of $68 million was $169 million lower than the same quarter last year. The impact of raw material price changes was a negative $110 million in the quarter year-on-year. Foreign exchange impacted the operating profit negatively by $5 million, mainly as a result of the stronger U.S. dollar.

    在下一張幻燈片中查看調整後的營業收入橋。 2022年第一季度,我們調整後的營業收入為6800萬美元,比去年同期減少1.69億美元。本季度原材料價格變動的影響為負 1.1 億美元。外匯對營業利潤產生了 500 萬美元的負面影響,主要是由於美元走強。

  • Support from governments in connection with the pandemic was $7 million higher than in the first quarter compared last year. SG&A and RD&E net was unchanged. Our strategic initiatives continue to yield good results. However, these positive effects were more than offset by the difficult market environment. Premium freight and lower-than-expected sales, but also high call-off volatility and broad cost inflation, for instance, related to logistics and utilities, impacted our operations negatively.

    與去年第一季度相比,各國政府對大流行的支持比第一季度高出 700 萬美元。 SG&A 和 RD&E 淨額沒有變化。我們的戰略舉措繼續產生良好的效果。然而,這些積極影響被艱難的市場環境所抵消。溢價運費和低於預期的銷售額,以及與物流和公用事業相關的高取消波動性和廣泛的成本通脹,對我們的運營產生了負面影響。

  • Looking on the cash flow performance on the next slide. For the first quarter of 2022, operating cash flow decreased by $116 million to $70 million compared to last year, mainly due to lower net income. Compared to prior quarter, working capital deteriorated by $18 million despite a $20 million improvement in trade working capital. This was mainly a result of $136 million increase from inventories and $125 million from increase of receivables, partly offset by $241 million from accounts payables.

    查看下一張幻燈片上的現金流表現。 2022年第一季度,營運現金流較去年減少1.16億美元至7,000萬美元,主要是由於淨收入下降。與上一季度相比,儘管貿易營運資金增加了 2000 萬美元,但營運資金減少了 1800 萬美元。這主要是由於庫存增加了 1.36 億美元,應收賬款增加了 1.25 億美元,部分被應付賬款的 2.41 億美元抵消了。

  • The increase in inventories was due to customers in Europe stopping production around quarter end because of supply chain distress related to the war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China. For the first quarter, capital expenditures net decreased by 82% to $17 million, mainly as a result of the divestiture of a facility in Japan.

    庫存增加是由於歐洲客戶在季度末左右停止生產,原因是與烏克蘭戰爭和中國封鎖有關的供應鏈困境。第一季度,資本支出淨額減少 82% 至 1700 萬美元,主要是由於剝離了日本的一家設施。

  • Capital expenditures net in relation to sales was 0.8% versus 4.1% a year earlier. Excluding the divestiture in Japan, capital expenditures was $112 million. For the first quarter 2022, free cash flow was $53 million compared to $93 million a year earlier, driven by the lower operating cash flow, partly offset by lower capital expenditure net. The cash conversion for the last 12 months was 72%. In the quarter, we paid $56 million in dividends and repurchased shares for $18 million.

    與銷售額相關的資本支出淨額為 0.8%,而去年同期為 4.1%。不包括在日本的資產剝離,資本支出為 1.12 億美元。 2022 年第一季度,自由現金流為 5300 萬美元,而去年同期為 9300 萬美元,這主要是由於運營現金流下降,部分被資本支出淨額下降所抵消。過去 12 個月的現金轉換率為 72%。本季度,我們支付了 5600 萬美元的股息,並以 1800 萬美元的價格回購了股票。

  • Now looking on our leverage ratio development on the next slide. We are pleased that our focus on capital management is yielding results, and we can maintain a strong balance sheet also in these challenging times. This has enabled us to start the repurchasing of shares and to maintain our dividend.

    現在在下一張幻燈片中查看我們的槓桿率發展。我們很高興我們對資本管理的關注正在取得成果,我們也可以在這些充滿挑戰的時期保持強勁的資產負債表。這使我們能夠開始回購股票並維持我們的股息。

  • The leverage ratio at the end of March 2022 was 1.4x, a significant improvement since the peak of 2.9x in 2020 and unchanged versus a year ago. In the quarter, our 12 months trailing adjusted EBITDA decreased by $176 million, partly offset by the net debt decrease of $19 million.

    2022 年 3 月末的槓桿率為 1.4 倍,自 2020 年 2.9 倍的峰值以來有顯著改善,與一年前持平。在本季度,我們過去 12 個月的調整後 EBITDA 減少了 1.76 億美元,部分被 1900 萬美元的淨債務減少所抵消。

  • Now looking at the raw material development on to the next slide. The exogenic shock from the war in Ukraine adversely impacted an already distressed global supply chain, driving prices of raw materials further upwards. Cost increases for raw materials generated a headwind of $110 million or around 5 percentage points to our operating margin in the first quarter. This was higher than the full year impact in 2021 of $105 million.

    現在看下一張幻燈片的原材料開發。烏克蘭戰爭的外來衝擊對已經陷入困境的全球供應鏈產生了不利影響,推動原材料價格進一步上漲。原材料成本增加對我們第一季度的營業利潤率產生了 1.1 億美元或約 5 個百分點的不利影響。這高於 2021 年全年 1.05 億美元的影響。

  • In the current price environment, we believe that raw material costs before any customer compensations could be up to 6 percentage points in operating margin headwind for the full year 2022, with similar year-over-year effects in all quarters. This is, of course, a situation which we must address through serious actions to ensure we are back on the trajectory towards our medium-term profitability targets as soon as possible.

    在當前的價格環境下,我們認為,在任何客戶補償之前的原材料成本可能會在 2022 年全年對營業利潤率造成高達 6 個百分點的不利影響,所有季度的同比影響都相似。當然,我們必須通過認真的行動來解決這種情況,以確保我們盡快回到實現中期盈利目標的軌道上。

  • A key lever to achieve this is outlined on the next slide. We are engaging in customer discussions aiming at unprecedented price increases to reflect the significant cost inflation, mainly from raw materials, but also lost volumes and logistic costs.

    下一張幻燈片概述了實現這一目標的關鍵槓桿。我們正在與客戶進行討論,旨在以前所未有的價格上漲來反映主要來自原材料的顯著成本膨脹,以及數量和物流成本的損失。

  • Over time, we believe and expect that customer recoveries should offset the cost inflation. We were on track to achieve the recoveries we had targeted to cope with the cost increases that we anticipated prior to the latest surge in prices and costs. However, the ongoing inflationary pressures require additional actions. Therefore, we have established a global commercial recovery task force, and we have escalated the negotiation processes and are engaged in customer discussions, demanding compensation for the recent additional cost inflation.

    隨著時間的推移,我們相信並期望客戶的恢復應該抵消成本膨脹。我們有望實現目標回收,以應對我們在最近一次價格和成本飆升之前預期的成本增長。然而,持續的通脹壓力需要採取額外的行動。因此,我們成立了全球商業復甦工作組,併升級了談判進程並參與了客戶討論,要求對最近的額外成本膨脹進行補償。

  • The main focus is on price increases from midyear and onwards. In parallel, we're implementing greater pricing flexibility into our new contracts to account for an environment with changing cost levels. For commercial reasons, we will not discuss the level of anticipated recovery or its nature.

    主要關注的是年中及以後的價格上漲。與此同時,我們在新合同中實施了更大的定價靈活性,以適應成本水平不斷變化的環境。出於商業原因,我們不會討論預期的恢復水平或其性質。

  • In addition to commercial recoveries and price increases, we are undertaking other actions as well, as discussed on the next slide. In response to the increased challenging market conditions, we continue with strict cost control measures, a hiring freeze and accelerated cost savings and footprint activities.

    除了商業復甦和價格上漲外,我們還在採取其他行動,如下一張幻燈片所述。為應對日益嚴峻的市場條件,我們繼續採取嚴格的成本控制措施、凍結招聘並加快成本節約和足跡活動。

  • In addition to recently announced capacity alignments and footprint actions in Japan, Europe and Americas, we are reducing direct labor, closing one plant in South Korea, and we divested a property in Japan. In total, we reduced headcount by over 1,700 versus the same quarter last year despite similar sales levels.

    除了最近宣佈在日本、歐洲和美洲進行產能調整和足跡行動外,我們還減少了直接勞動力,關閉了韓國的一家工廠,並剝離了日本的一處房產。儘管銷售水平相似,但與去年同期相比,我們總共減少了 1,700 多名員工。

  • Additionally, our measures include management of inventories and payables, negotiating with suppliers to mitigate cost inflation. Our supply chain management teams have been working hard to balance inventories to actual demand. During the quarter, production planning accuracy declined as a result of the war in Ukraine and the extensive lockdowns in China.

    此外,我們的措施包括管理庫存和應付賬款,與供應商談判以減輕成本膨脹。我們的供應鏈管理團隊一直在努力平衡庫存與實際需求。在本季度,由於烏克蘭戰爭和中國的廣泛封鎖,生產計劃的準確性有所下降。

  • Now switching to the market development, I hand it back to Mikael.

    現在轉向市場開發,我把它交還給 Mikael。

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Fredrik. Looking now at the light vehicle production development on the next slide. While global markets are influenced by the ongoing war in Ukraine, Europe is undeniably the most severely impacted.

    謝謝你,弗雷德里克。現在看下一張幻燈片上的輕型汽車生產發展。雖然全球市場受到烏克蘭持續戰爭的影響,但不可否認,歐洲受到的影響最為嚴重。

  • Beyond the direct impact to Russian LVP, the war in Ukraine also significantly affects wire harnesses production, mainly for German automakers. Compared to 3 months ago, IHS Markit has reduced its global light vehicle production growth for 2022 by more than 4 percentage points to less than 5%, with European accounting for 90% of the reduction. Additionally, we see further risk to supply chains and the broader economic landscape. Given the ongoing uncertainty, we have a scenario-based approach to light vehicle production, and therefore, our updated guidance is based on a light vehicle production range.

    除了對俄羅斯 LVP 的直接影響外,烏克蘭戰爭還嚴重影響了線束生產,主要針對德國汽車製造商。與 3 個月前相比,IHS Markit 已將其 2022 年全球輕型車產量增長幅度降低了 4 個多百分點至不足 5%,其中歐洲佔了 90%。此外,我們認為供應鍊和更廣泛的經濟格局面臨進一步風險。鑑於持續存在的不確定性,我們採用基於情景的輕型汽車生產方法,因此,我們更新的指導基於輕型汽車生產範圍。

  • Looking at LVP forecast in more details on the next slide. For the second quarter of 2022, global light vehicle production is expected to further decline compared to Q1 2022. In North America, sales of light vehicles are slowly improving on a quarter-to-quarter basis and should continue strengthening over the remainder of the year. However, due to low inventory levels, deliveries remain well below demand and well below deliveries a year ago.

    在下一張幻燈片中更詳細地查看 LVP 預測。與 2022 年第一季度相比,預計 2022 年第二季度全球輕型車產量將進一步下降。在北美,輕型車銷量環比緩慢改善,並應在今年剩餘時間內繼續走強.然而,由於庫存水平低,交付量仍遠低於需求,遠低於一年前的交付量。

  • European production will remain challenged as weaker Q1 production is expected to carry forward into Q2, as the war in Ukraine continues to stress the supply chains. Hit by strict COVID containment measures, light vehicle production and sales in China started to decline in March.

    由於烏克蘭戰爭繼續給供應鏈帶來壓力,預計第一季度生產疲軟將延續到第二季度,歐洲生產仍將面臨挑戰。受嚴格的新冠疫情防控措施影響,中國輕型汽車產銷量在 3 月份開始下滑。

  • Lockdowns are also interrupting auto production outside China as exports of components are affected. In the near term, global light vehicle production outlook will be determined by the availability of components as well as the effects of lockdowns in China.

    由於零部件出口受到影響,封鎖也中斷了中國以外的汽車生產。短期內,全球輕型汽車生產前景將取決於零部件的供應情況以及中國封鎖的影響。

  • Now looking on the 2022 business outlook on the next slide. We expect higher sales outperformance versus light vehicle production for the rest of the year, supported by launches, regional mix and higher prices. For the second quarter of 2022, we forecast the adjusted margin to be weaker than in the first quarter due to lower and more volatile light vehicle production, and we expect cost inflation to increase faster than our cost compensation.

    現在看下一張幻燈片上的 2022 年業務前景。我們預計,在發布、區域組合和更高價格的支持下,今年剩餘時間的銷售業績將高於輕型汽車產量。對於 2022 年第二季度,我們預測調整後的利潤率將弱於第一季度,原因是輕型汽車產量較低且波動較大,並且我們預計成本通脹的增長速度將快於我們的成本補償。

  • We expect second half of year improvements from alignment of direct labor with light vehicle production, footprint optimization activities and less volatile light vehicle production in Europe and China. Most importantly, we are negotiating price increases with our customers to compensate for current cost inflation. We believe and expect that our price increases should gradually offset the cost inflation. And assuming some degree of market stabilization, we should be back on trajectory towards our midterm targets.

    我們預計,歐洲和中國的直接勞動力與輕型汽車生產、足跡優化活動以及波動性較小的輕型汽車生產的一致性將在下半年有所改善。最重要的是,我們正在與客戶協商提價,以彌補當前的成本膨脹。我們相信並預期我們的價格上漲應該會逐漸抵消成本上漲。假設市場在一定程度上穩定,我們應該回到中期目標的軌道上。

  • Looking at the updated full year 2022 indications on the next slide. The updated indications are based on the assumption that global light vehicle production will grow 0% to 5% and that we achieve our targeted price increases plus some level of market stabilization. We expect sales to increase organically by around 12% to 17%. Currency translation effects are assumed to be around a negative 3%.

    查看下一張幻燈片上更新的 2022 年全年指標。更新後的指標基於全球輕型汽車產量將增長 0% 至 5% 且我們實現目標價格上漲以及一定程度的市場穩定的假設。我們預計銷售額將有機增長約 12% 至 17%。假設貨幣換算效應約為負 3%。

  • We expect an adjusted operating margin of around 5.5% to 7%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around USD 750 million to USD 850 million. Our full year 2022 indications exclude cost for capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters and other discrete items.

    我們預計調整後的營業利潤率約為 5.5% 至 7%。經營現金流預計約為 7.5 億美元至 8.5 億美元。我們的 2022 年全年指標不包括產能調整、反壟斷相關事項和其他離散項目的成本。

  • Turning to the next slide. We now see global light vehicle production growth being 4 to 9 percentage points lower than in the previous indications from January 2022. Rising raw material costs are expected to have an additional 300 basis points negative impact. We believe our strategic initiatives and other actions should offset some of these additional headwinds. This should lead to an adjusted operating margin for the full year 2022, that is 2.5 to 4 percentage points lower than the previous indication.

    轉到下一張幻燈片。我們現在看到,自 2022 年 1 月以來,全球輕型汽車產量增長比之前的跡象低 4 至 9 個百分點。原材料成本上漲預計將產生額外 300 個基點的負面影響。我們相信我們的戰略舉措和其他行動應該可以抵消其中一些額外的不利因素。這應該會導致調整後的 2022 年全年營業利潤率,比之前的指標低 2.5 到 4 個百分點。

  • Our adjusted operating margin outlook may still be impacted by supply chain disruptions in the automotive industry and potential risk of surge in COVID cases and its effect on us and the automotive industry.

    我們調整後的營業利潤率前景仍可能受到汽車行業供應鏈中斷和 COVID 病例激增的潛在風險及其對我們和汽車行業的影響的影響。

  • Turning the page. In closing, to summarize our 2022 outlook. We expect continued strong outperformance versus light vehicle production, supported mainly by product launches, increasing content per vehicle and price increases. Supported by a somewhat more stable market, we anticipate to gradually offset much of the cost inflation in the coming quarters, which will take us back to a trajectory towards our midterm targets. Additionally, our balance sheet and cash flow should allow for continued shareholder return. I.

    翻頁。最後,總結一下我們對 2022 年的展望。我們預計與輕型汽車生產相比,其表現將持續強勁,主要受到產品發布、每輛車含量增加和價格上漲的支持。在較為穩定的市場支持下,我們預計將在未來幾個季度逐步抵消大部分成本通脹,這將使我們回到中期目標的軌道上。此外,我們的資產負債表和現金流應該允許持續的股東回報。一世。

  • will now hand it back to Anders.

    現在將把它交還給安德斯。

  • Anders Trapp - VP of IR

    Anders Trapp - VP of IR

  • Thank you, Mikael. Turning to the next slide, which concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and I would like to open the line for questions. So now I turn it back to you, Mark.

    謝謝你,米凱爾。轉到下一張幻燈片,它結束了我們對今天財報電話會議的正式評論,我想打開電話提問。所以現在我把它還給你,馬克。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • (Operator Instructions) The first is from Hampus Engellau of Handelsbanken.

    (操作員說明)第一個來自 Handelsbanken 的 Hampus Engellau。

  • Hampus Engellau - Automotive Analyst

    Hampus Engellau - Automotive Analyst

  • I just have one question, but it may be a dual question here. What I'm trying to understand like it is that pricing situation that you're in. And especially when I put it into the perspective that the core OEMs have increased new car pricing by 5% to 8%, used car prices are up 25% and many of the OEMs reported record margins last year. And hasn't this in some way impacted your possibility to push forward price increases? Or could you maybe elaborate on that a bit? And also what kind of time lag we should expect on the price increases that you have implemented so far?

    我只有一個問題,但這裡可能是一個雙重問題。我試圖理解的是你所處的定價情況。尤其是當我把它放在核心 OEM 將新車定價提高 5% 到 8% 的角度來看時,二手車價格上漲了 25 % 和許多原始設備製造商去年報告了創紀錄的利潤率。這是否在某種程度上影響了您推動價格上漲的可能性?或者你能詳細說明一下嗎?還有,到目前為止,我們應該對你們實施的價格上漲有什麼樣的延遲?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • Thank you, Hampus. No, let me say that, I mean, I feel comfortable going to the customers here and discuss and negotiate these price increases. I mean it's clearly so that what we are going to the customers with is the inflationary pressure we see in the industry, and it's not Autoliv-specific issues, if I put it like that.

    謝謝你,漢普斯。不,讓我這麼說,我的意思是,我很樂意去這裡的客戶那裡討論和談判這些價格上漲。我的意思是,很明顯,我們向客戶提供的是我們在行業中看到的通脹壓力,如果我這樣說的話,這不是奧托立夫特有的問題。

  • So I mean when we go into this discussion, we have well built up cases here. And as you said, they have already started this journey. But as a supplier, it's in the business models we have, at least had history as a supplier. You can't anticipate price increases before that happens. So therefore, we can only go to the customer when we have them, so to speak. And that is what we're doing now.

    所以我的意思是當我們進入這個討論時,我們在這裡已經建立了很好的案例。正如你所說,他們已經開始了這段旅程。但作為供應商,它存在於我們擁有的商業模式中,至少有作為供應商的歷史。在此之前,您無法預測價格上漲。因此,可以這麼說,我們只能在有客戶的情況下去找他們。這就是我們現在正在做的事情。

  • So therefore, you have this time lag, as we have talked about here. But once again, I feel comfortable in our ambitions here of getting the compensation for deflationary pressure that is in the industry.

    因此,正如我們在這裡所討論的,您有這個時間滯後。但再一次,我對我們的雄心感到滿意,即獲得行業通貨緊縮壓力的補償。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Colin Langan at Wells Fargo.

    我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Colin Langan。

  • Colin M. Langan - Senior Equity Analyst

    Colin M. Langan - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Just looking at Slide 12, you're definitely clear that raw material costs have obviously massively increased since the beginning of 2020. But for a lot of them, they're not too far off of the end of last year. So trying to line up the big increase in raw material headwinds versus where it ended last year, a lot of these aren't too off base. Is it that the assumptions, the initial guidance, we're assuming that some of these started to moderate? Is there just sort of a timing issue? I'm just trying to think about where we were at year-end and why the large increase today.

    只看幻燈片 12,您肯定很清楚,自 2020 年初以來,原材料成本明顯大幅增加。但對於其中許多人來說,距離去年年底並不遙遠。因此,試圖將原材料逆風的大幅增長與去年結束的情況進行對比,其中很多都不太離譜。是假設,最初的指導,我們假設其中一些開始緩和嗎?只是時間問題嗎?我只是想想想我們在年底的情況以及今天大幅增長的原因。

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • Yes. So I mean, as we laid out in the -- after the Q4 earnings, we said that it was also based on, I'll say, an expected development of raw material prices going forward. And when we look at what now the, especially the Ukraine war, has done to the raw material situation, we see that the increase that we have now from roughly 300 basis points to 600 basis points, roughly 3/4 of that are from steel and nonferrous metals. And this is really where the -- also the forward curves have changed significantly. So we now assume that we will roll over these contracts at significantly higher price levels than what we were assuming just 3 months ago. So that's the main difference here in the assumptions going forward.

    是的。所以我的意思是,正如我們在第四季度財報中所闡述的那樣,我們說這也是基於,我會說,未來原材料價格的預期發展。當我們看看現在,尤其是烏克蘭戰爭對原材料形勢的影響時,我們看到我們現在從大約 300 個基點增加到 600 個基點,其中大約 3/4 來自鋼鐵和有色金屬。這確實是——前向曲線也發生了顯著變化的地方。因此,我們現在假設我們將以比我們 3 個月前假設的價格水平高得多的價格展期這些合約。這就是未來假設的主要區別。

  • Colin M. Langan - Senior Equity Analyst

    Colin M. Langan - Senior Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Got it. So it is a sort of a forward-looking change. Okay. And then as I'm looking at the full year guidance, you've indicated next quarter is going to be a bit worse than this quarter. So we're talking 3%-ish maybe for the first half.

    好的。知道了。所以這是一種前瞻性的變化。好的。然後,當我查看全年指導時,您已經表示下個季度會比本季度差一些。所以我們說的可能是上半年的 3% 左右。

  • To get to the midpoint, which is like 6.25% really requires, I think, almost a tripling of margins from first half to second half. You mentioned some items. I mean what are really the major step functions to kind of get to that big sort of first half to second half leap. When we think of sort of ranking order, what drives that?

    我認為,要達到 6.25% 的中點,我認為從上半年到下半年的利潤率幾乎是三倍。你提到了一些項目。我的意思是,真正實現上半場到下半場飛躍的主要步驟功能是什麼。當我們想到排序順序時,是什麼驅動了它?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • I think the -- it's all about closing this time gap between cost increases that we are facing from our value chain with the compensation from our customers here. And as we indicated already in the Q4 earnings release, we stated there that the first half of the year will be challenging, and we talked there about 500 basis points raw material headwind in the first half and then we should see the compensation coming through to the second half of the year. And that's still the dynamics in the guidance we're doing now.

    我認為 - 這一切都是為了縮小我們從價值鏈面臨的成本增加與來自我們這裡的客戶的補償之間的時間差距。正如我們在第四季度財報中已經指出的那樣,我們在那裡表示,今年上半年將充滿挑戰,我們在那裡談到了上半年原材料逆風 500 個基點,然後我們應該會看到補償達到下半年。這仍然是我們現在正在做的指導中的動態。

  • The difference compared to that, of course, is that the war in Ukraine put additional pressure on the value chains here and drove up prices not only on raw material, but also on logistics costs and energy prices, et cetera, which meant that we now needed to opt our ambitions here with the price increases with the customers. And hence then, you have the time gap again here.

    當然,與此不同的是,烏克蘭戰爭給這裡的價值鏈帶來了額外的壓力,不僅推高了原材料價格,還推高了物流成本和能源價格等,這意味著我們現在需要隨著客戶的價格上漲而在這裡選擇我們的雄心壯志。因此,你又在這裡有時間間隔。

  • So we will see then a gradual improvement on price side closing these gaps. So of course, there is a big difference between the first quarter and the last quarter in this forecast, which is also was in the regional guidance for the year.

    因此,我們將看到價格方面逐漸改善,縮小這些差距。所以當然,這個預測第一季度和最後一個季度有很大的不同,這也是今年的區域指導。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Rod Lache at Wolfe Research.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Rod Lache。

  • Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

    Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

  • So I also wanted to ask about the commodities. So last year, thanks for quantifying, you had a 130 basis point drag from raw materials and now you're up to 600 this year. So 700 basis points cumulatively. Can you just remind us, first of all, is that a gross or a net number? And I was hoping you can elaborate a little bit on the time line and magnitude of potential recovery. So if you achieve the recovery that you anticipate in the back half of this year, I would imagine some of that spills over to next year. What -- can you maybe give us a little bit of color on the magnitude of tailwind that would then -- you would then benefit from next year from this?

    所以我也想問一下商品。因此,去年,感謝您的量化,原材料拖累了 130 個基點,而今年您的拖累高達 600 個。所以累計700個基點。你能提醒我們,首先,這是一個總數字還是一個淨數字?我希望你能詳細說明潛在復甦的時間線和幅度。因此,如果您在今年下半年實現預期的複蘇,我會想像其中一些會蔓延到明年。什麼——你能否給我們一點關於順風幅度的顏色,然後——你會從明年中受益嗎?

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • Yes. So the guidance on the raw material side continues to be a gross number, as we always had. So there's no recovery or offset in that number. That's the effect that we see the raw material prices hitting our P&L on the cost level.

    是的。所以原材料方面的指導仍然是一個總數字,就像我們一直做的那樣。所以這個數字沒有恢復或抵消。這就是我們看到原材料價格在成本水平上觸及我們的損益表的影響。

  • Then as Mikael already indicated, if you look at our, say, the margins levels that we achieved during the first quarter and indicating also for the second quarter and then the implied trajectory then into Q3 and 4, you can see that we are expecting a significant recovery level.

    然後正如 Mikael 已經指出的那樣,如果您查看我們在第一季度實現的利潤率水平,並指出第二季度的利潤率水平,然後是第三季度和第四季度的隱含軌跡,您可以看到我們期望顯著的恢復水平。

  • However, with the raw material price increases, say, the net of the cost increase versus offset then by recoveries is less favorable now than it was in the initial guidance. But we should be, as we say, back towards the trajectory to meet the 12% margin target that we have for the medium term, and that should be quite visible already in the Q3 and Q4 performance.

    然而,隨著原材料價格的上漲,成本增加的淨值與當時的回收抵消相比,現在不如最初的指導方針那麼有利。但正如我們所說,我們應該回到軌道,以實現我們在中期設定的 12% 利潤率目標,這在第三季度和第四季度的表現中應該已經很明顯了。

  • Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

    Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

  • Okay. You mentioned premium freight and other cost inflation, and that's why you're seeing that $61 million drag on a 1% organic decline. Are you expecting to recover that through pricing as well? And then just lastly, you mentioned additional semiconductor risk due to the war in Ukraine. Can you just elaborate on what you're specifically looking at?

    好的。您提到了溢價運費和其他成本膨脹,這就是為什麼您看到 6100 萬美元拖累了 1% 的有機下降。您是否也希望通過定價來恢復這一點?最後,您提到了烏克蘭戰爭帶來的額外半導體風險。你能詳細說明你具體在看什麼嗎?

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • So yes, premium freight was quite substantial in the quarter. And as Mikael mentioned, 5% was or more than 5% was the hit from raw materials, which was fairly much in line with our guidance. But then we saw around about a 2% hit on the margin also from premium freight, of which we believe the majority of that is recoverable then throughout the remainder of the year.

    所以,是的,本季度的溢價運費相當可觀。正如 Mikael 提到的,5% 或超過 5% 是來自原材料的打擊,這與我們的指導非常一致。但隨後我們看到溢價運費也對利潤率造成了約 2% 的打擊,我們認為其中大部分可以在今年剩餘時間內恢復。

  • But then we also saw inefficiencies on direct labor, mainly due to the call of volatility, but also related to COVID shut -- or COVID cases in both Europe, but also parts of Southeast Asia and in China, which hampered our ability to run at normal productivity levels.

    但隨後我們也看到直接勞動力的效率低下,主要是由於波動性的呼聲,但也與 COVID 關閉有關——或者在歐洲、東南亞和中國的部分地區出現 COVID 病例,這阻礙了我們在正常的生產力水平。

  • And on top of that then, also the -- what you can see in the markets, also the freight and utility cost levels have come up quite significantly also in the first quarter. So those are the main components of the $61 million headwinds on the operations side. And can you repeat your second question on Ukraine? I didn't fully understand that one.

    最重要的是,您在市場上可以看到,第一季度的運費和公用事業成本水平也顯著上升。因此,這些是運營方面 6100 萬美元逆風的主要組成部分。你能重複你關於烏克蘭的第二個問題嗎?我沒有完全理解那個。

  • Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

    Rod Avraham Lache - MD & Senior Analyst

  • You -- on one of your slides, you alluded to additional semiconductor risk due to the war in Ukraine. So it sounded like you were tying that. And was that related to neon gas? Or was there something else that you're seeing that led you to raise that as a larger risk associated with the conflict?

    你——在你的一張幻燈片上,你提到了烏克蘭戰爭帶來的額外半導體風險。所以聽起來你在綁那個。這和氖氣有關嗎?還是您看到的其他原因導致您將其視為與衝突相關的更大風險?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes, that's correct. I mean that's one example. But the raw material is also going into the semiconductor production that is affected by the war in Ukraine there.

    對,那是正確的。我的意思是這是一個例子。但原材料也將進入受烏克蘭戰爭影響的半導體生產。

  • But I think on the semiconductor side, I mean, there is also, of course, still some challenges when it comes to the total supply there, and that's also what is challenging for the overall LVP outlook here, as we have outlined here. And at least, the China situation there where -- we actually see semiconductor manufacturing go down slightly in Q1.

    但我認為在半導體方面,我的意思是,就那裡的總供應量而言,當然仍然存在一些挑戰,這也是我們在這裡概述的整體 LVP 前景面臨的挑戰。至少,中國的情況——我們實際上看到第一季度半導體製造業略有下降。

  • And of course, with the lockdowns and the consequences also on the freight out of China, there you can expect some [disturbances] of that. But it's all part of the 0% to 5% growth number for LVP included there.

    當然,隨著封鎖和對中國貨運的影響,你可以預料到其中的一些[干擾]。但這都是其中包含的 LVP 0% 到 5% 增長數字的一部分。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And our next question comes from the line of Vijay Rakesh of Mizuho.

    我們的下一個問題來自瑞穗的 Vijay Rakesh。

  • Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

    Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

  • Just on the full year guide. Just wondering if you're able to -- the 12% to 17% year-on-year, are you able to pass on some of the costs? And what price increases are you embedding in that full year number? If you can give us some color.

    就在全年指南上。只是想知道你是否能夠 - 同比增長 12% 到 17%,你能轉嫁一些成本嗎?您在該全年數字中嵌入了哪些價格上漲?如果你能給我們一些顏色。

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • We don't go into any details on the levels and so forth here, specifically as we are in the midst of the negotiations with our customers here.

    我們不會在這裡詳細介紹級別等,特別是因為我們正在與這裡的客戶進行談判。

  • So with that said, I started out this Q&A session here by stating that I feel comfortable with us going then to the customer, achieving the full compensation for what is done, inflationary pressure in the system. Once again, it's not Autoliv-unique cost increases here. It is in cost pressure in the industry here. And...

    話雖如此,我在這裡開始了這個問答環節,說我對我們去客戶那裡感到滿意,實現對所做工作的全部補償,系統中的通貨膨脹壓力。再一次,這不是 Autoliv 獨有的成本增加。這裡的行業面臨成本壓力。和...

  • Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

    Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

  • Got it. Makes sense. Yes. And I think you also mentioned some customer call-offs, about 25% of European sales affected. Now with the Shanghai shutdown almost a month into the quarter here, are you seeing that distress in the supply chain resulting in call-offs in both Europe and China? Or what's being embedded or what are you seeing in your order activity? That's it.

    知道了。說得通。是的。而且我認為您還提到了一些客戶取消,大約 25% 的歐洲銷售額受到影響。現在隨著上海停工近一個月進入本季度,您是否看到供應鏈中的困境導致歐洲和中國的停工?或者嵌入了什麼或者您在訂單活動中看到了什麼?就是這樣。

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • So as I said, I think the consequences from what have happened so far in terms of lockdowns in China during the quarter here and as we speak, I would say, is included in the 0% to 5% scenario. Then of course, as we have pointed out here, there's a lot of uncertainty around the COVID situation as well as the war in Ukraine, et cetera, on further impact.

    因此,正如我所說,我認為迄今為止在中國本季度發生的封鎖以及正如我們所說的那樣,其後果包括在 0% 到 5% 的情景中。當然,正如我們在這裡指出的那樣,COVID 局勢以及烏克蘭戰爭等方面的進一步影響存在很多不確定性。

  • But what we can identify today, we believe that's within the 0% to 5% LVP growth there, if that answers your question.

    但是我們今天可以確定的是,如果這回答了您的問題,我們相信這在 0% 到 5% 的 LVP 增長范圍內。

  • Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

    Vijay Raghavan Rakesh - MD of Americas Research & Senior Semiconductor Analyst

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And the next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak at RBC Capital Markets.

    下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Joseph Spak。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

  • I guess I just wanted to understand a couple of things on pricing because on Slide 19, you're showing for the full year that you're basically able to offset the -- pretty much the entire impact of raw materials, and I know some of that's sort of your own -- your actions. But that implies that it's actually a much bigger impact versus the raw material headwind in the second half because you didn't really get any of that in the first half.

    我想我只是想了解一些關於定價的事情,因為在幻燈片 19 上,你展示了全年你基本上能夠抵消 - 幾乎所有原材料的影響,我知道一些那是你自己的——你的行動。但這意味著與下半年的原材料逆風相比,它實際上產生了更大的影響,因為您在上半年並沒有真正得到任何影響。

  • So I guess I just want to understand, are you -- like I can understand how you can price for inflation, but it seems like there's maybe also an element of recovery for prior impact. And is that correct? And then I just also want to confirm that functionally, these -- any recoveries are reported in -- are they reported in sales, so it's also impacting your organic growth? Or is it a contra expense?

    所以我想我只是想了解一下,你是不是 - 就像我可以理解你如何為通貨膨脹定價一樣,但似乎之前的影響可能還有一個恢復因素。這是正確的嗎?然後我還想確認,從功能上講,這些 - 任何恢復都報告在 - 它們是否在銷售中報告,所以它也會影響您的有機增長?還是相反的費用?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • I mean if I start, and Fredrik can fill in there on the details there. But I mean, of course, when we go now to the customers, we are seeking full compensation for what is then the inflationary pressure, as I mentioned here.

    我的意思是,如果我開始,Fredrik 可以在那裡填寫詳細信息。但我的意思是,當然,當我們現在去找客戶時,我們正在為當時的通脹壓力尋求全額補償,正如我在這裡提到的那樣。

  • Then, of course, also you have other claims here connected to the specific situations with the customers. I mean as alluded to before, some of the premium freights that are caused by the customer is also on the claims list there. So we include that.

    然後,當然,您還有其他與客戶的具體情況相關的索賠。我的意思是,正如之前提到的,由客戶造成的一些溢價運費也在理賠清單上。所以我們把它包括在內。

  • And I think the impact here on our full year guidance is the timing gap between when we are being hit by the cost and when we get the customer compensation here. And as I said, it's a part -- has been a part of the business model for auto suppliers, as you know. And that, of course, is something we're working on to shorten as much as possible.

    而且我認為這裡對我們全年指導的影響是我們受到成本打擊和我們在這裡獲得客戶補償之間的時間差。正如我所說,它是汽車供應商商業模式的一部分,如你所知。當然,這是我們正在努力盡可能縮短的事情。

  • But when it comes to the height here and the facts behind it, I feel comfortable here to go to the customer with a full amount here.

    但是當談到這裡的高度和背後的事實時,我覺得在這裡全款去客戶那裡很舒服。

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • Yes. And the recoveries will be in our net sales. So that's how we will report them. As such, they are then also part of the organic growth outperformance. So one of the reasons why we then have increased that from 11% to 12% is also from a higher than previously expected price adjustment from our customers to offset the stronger raw material headwinds that we're facing.

    是的。恢復將在我們的淨銷售額中。這就是我們將如何報告他們的方式。因此,它們也是有機增長表現出色的一部分。因此,我們將這一比例從 11% 提高到 12% 的原因之一也是我們的客戶進行了高於先前預期的價格調整,以抵消我們面臨的更強的原材料逆風。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

  • Okay. And then, I guess, Mikael, maybe building off sort of a comment you just made here about changing relationships and you mentioned in your report and I think in your opening comments something about greater pricing flexibility going forward. Does that mean that you are trying to move more towards an indexing model versus prior similar to other suppliers? And if so, is that just for new contracts? Or is that something you think you can achieve for existing contracts as well?

    好的。然後,我想,Mikael,也許是建立在你剛剛在這裡發表的關於改變關係的評論的基礎上,你在報告中提到,我認為在你的開場評論中,關於未來更大的定價靈活性。這是否意味著您正試圖更多地轉向索引模型而不是之前與其他供應商類似的模型?如果是這樣,那是否僅適用於新合同?還是您認為您也可以通過現有合同實現這一目標?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • No. As I said, I mean, I wouldn't say that it's -- the answer to the question is indexation or not. I think it's all about that we are in a different environment now than what we have been in for the last at least 20 years here.

    不。正如我所說,我的意思是,我不會說它是——這個問題的答案是索引與否。我認為這完全是因為我們現在所處的環境與過去至少 20 年來所處的環境不同。

  • And of course, there is a changing -- change over time also for our customers as well for ourselves here. But I think we have good speed and good focus when it comes to get these adjustments in place, and as we continue to see at least for some time here, continued pressure. That will be an ongoing dialogue, of course, with the customer.

    當然,我們的客戶和我們自己也會隨著時間的推移而發生變化。但我認為,在進行這些調整方面,我們有很好的速度和良好的專注力,而且我們至少在一段時間內繼續看到,持續的壓力。當然,這將是與客戶的持續對話。

  • Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

    Joseph Robert Spak - Autos and Leisure Analyst

  • So just to follow up, what do you mean by greater pricing flexibility then when you mentioned that?

    所以只是跟進,當你提到這個時,你所說的更大的定價靈活性是什麼意思?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • No. It means that we need to make sure that we have a faster response time from our customers here to get compensated for the price increases we see in our system. And then you can achieve that with different means. But it's more, I would say, a part of the dialogue with the customers and how you set it up with respect to customers.

    不,這意味著我們需要確保我們的客戶有更快的響應時間,以補償我們在系統中看到的價格上漲。然後您可以通過不同的方式實現這一目標。但我想說,這更多是與客戶對話的一部分,以及您如何針對客戶進行設置。

  • And of course, as we mentioned, indexation is one tool in that toolbox, but it's something we need to develop individually with our respective customer.

    當然,正如我們所提到的,索引是該工具箱中的一個工具,但它是我們需要與各自的客戶單獨開發的東西。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Sascha Gommel at Jefferies.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sascha Gommel。

  • Sascha Sebastian Gommel - Equity Analyst

    Sascha Sebastian Gommel - Equity Analyst

  • I also got a couple of items. The first one is just a clarification. In that 600 basis points of headwind you're guiding, is there the freight cost or the logistics headwind included? Or would that come on top? And how much is that in the full year?

    我也有幾件物品。第一個只是一個澄清。在你引導的 600 個基點的逆風中,是否包括運費或物流逆風?還是會排在首位?全年是多少?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • The 600 basis points is pure raw material. We haven't specified the freight cost or any other inflationary cost pressures specifically there. It's a part of the overall guidance effect there. But once again, all that type of cost is what we intend to get compensated for.

    600個基點是純原材料。我們沒有具體說明運費或任何其他通脹成本壓力。這是那裡整體指導效果的一部分。但再一次,所有這些類型的成本都是我們打算得到補償的。

  • Sascha Sebastian Gommel - Equity Analyst

    Sascha Sebastian Gommel - Equity Analyst

  • I see. But it's fair to assume that this kind of logistics headwind remains at least for the second quarter, if not also for the second half.

    我懂了。但可以公平地假設這種物流逆風至少在第二季度仍然存在,如果不是在下半年也是如此。

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • Yes. Yes.

    是的。是的。

  • Sascha Sebastian Gommel - Equity Analyst

    Sascha Sebastian Gommel - Equity Analyst

  • Okay. Great. And then the second thing I wanted to clarify is the share buyback. On your website, you only reported numbers until the end of March. And does that imply you stop the share buyback at the end of March? Or are you still buying right now?

    好的。偉大的。然後我想澄清的第二件事是股票回購。在您的網站上,您只報告了 3 月底之前的數字。這是否意味著您在 3 月底停止股票回購?還是你現在還在買?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • As you know, we published there when transactions are being done, and we don't comment on what we intend to do and when we intend to do it and so on. But I mean we have initiated the buyback program, and we are committed to the $1.5 billion by 2024 there in the buyback program.

    如您所知,我們在交易完成時在那裡發布,我們不會評論我們打算做什麼以及我們打算什麼時候做等等。但我的意思是我們已經啟動了回購計劃,我們承諾到 2024 年在回購計劃中投入 15 億美元。

  • Sascha Sebastian Gommel - Equity Analyst

    Sascha Sebastian Gommel - Equity Analyst

  • So that means there was no buying early April?

    所以這意味著四月初沒有購買?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • We will continue to inform you when we have done something in the program there.

    當我們在那裡的計劃中完成某些事情時,我們將繼續通知您。

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • Yes, and we have to report it. So if there was nothing reported on...

    是的,我們必須報告。所以如果沒有任何報導...

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Agnieszka Vilela of Nordea.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Nordea 的 Agnieszka Vilela。

  • Agnieszka Vilela - Research Analyst

    Agnieszka Vilela - Research Analyst

  • When I look at the raw material impact on your EBIT, it was the aggregated or is expected to be the aggregate at $600 million in the past 2 years, 2021 and now including guidance for 2022. And you say that you have the ambition to recover that and also recover the freight costs and other costs that you're incurring right now. What gives you confidence that you can reach this kind of recovery? And also when we should expect that? So will it spill over to 2023 as well?

    當我查看原材料對您的息稅前利潤的影響時,它是過去 2 年(2021 年,現在包括 2022 年的指導)的總計或預計總計為 6 億美元。您說您有恢復的雄心還可以收回您現在產生的運費和其他費用。是什麼讓你有信心實現這種康復?還有什麼時候我們應該期待呢?那麼它也會蔓延到 2023 年嗎?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • I mean the confidence in achieving this lies in the fact that it is external price pressure towards the industry. It's not Autoliv specific. I would rather say that, I mean, I think we have, through our supply chain team, managed to keep down the cost increases here for better part of 2021 and at lower levels. So I think we have done a great job there. We are not asking for anything more than what has ended up here.

    我的意思是,實現這一目標的信心在於,這是對該行業的外部價格壓力。這不是 Autoliv 特定的。我寧願說,我的意思是,我認為我們已經通過我們的供應鏈團隊設法在 2021 年的大部分時間和更低的水平上控制了這裡的成本增長。所以我認為我們在那裡做得很好。除了在這裡結束的東西之外,我們沒有要求更多的東西。

  • So I think we have good arguments and good facts behind this. And once again, it's inflationary pressure and inflation by definition is passed on here. And as we stated before here, we see then a gradual recovery here over the next coming quarters here. So full focus on 2022 here.

    所以我認為這背後我們有很好的論據和很好的事實。再一次,它是通貨膨脹壓力,而通貨膨脹的定義是在這里傳遞的。正如我們之前在這裡所說的那樣,我們在接下來的幾個季度看到這裡逐漸復蘇。所以在這裡全神貫注於2022年。

  • Agnieszka Vilela - Research Analyst

    Agnieszka Vilela - Research Analyst

  • Great. And then the last question for me is that if we look at your leverage, it is now approaching 1.5x, which is the high end of your target. Is it fair to assume that you could pause the share repurchases right now?

    偉大的。然後對我來說最後一個問題是,如果我們看看你的槓桿率,它現在接近 1.5 倍,這是你目標的高端。假設您現在可以暫停股票回購是否公平?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • I think as we have said before here, I mean, when to move forward on share repurchase is a number of factors that needs to be built in, in that decision. And leverage, of course, is one, but it's also our cash flow generating capabilities going forward here and where we are in general in the cycle here. So there's a number of factors here.

    我認為正如我們之前在這裡所說,我的意思是,何時推進股票回購是該決定中需要考慮的許多因素。當然,槓桿是其中之一,但它也是我們在這裡向前發展的現金流產生能力,以及我們在這個週期中的總體情況。所以這裡有很多因素。

  • So it's not absolute black-and-white definition on the buyback if it's 1.5 or 1.6 or 1.4. It's a combination of all the 3. And I think we have used the phrase before as we have a pragmatic view on that, and that's still true going forward.

    因此,如果它是 1.5 或 1.6 或 1.4,那麼對於回購來說,這並不是絕對的黑白定義。這是三者的結合。我認為我們以前使用過這個短語,因為我們對此有務實的看法,而且這在未來仍然是正確的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Philipp Konig of Goldman Sachs.

    我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Philipp Konig。

  • Philipp Konig - Research Analyst

    Philipp Konig - Research Analyst

  • I just got a question on the operating leverage. If we think about the second half of the year to sort of get to your guidance, it implies sort of a 9% to 10% margin. You mentioned earlier and also on Slide 19 that you expect to offset the 3% additional raw materials with your pricing and other cost actions. Just thinking about the organic growth, how -- when you have positive LVP growth in the second half of the year, do you sort of expect to be back at the normalized operating leverage level? Or do you think because of higher freight costs and everything that flows into that part of the operations, that maybe that will continue to lag and all of the margin improvement will come from the pricing would be helpful?

    我剛收到一個關於經營槓桿的問題。如果我們考慮今年下半年來獲得您的指導,這意味著大約有 9% 到 10% 的利潤率。您之前以及在幻燈片 19 中提到,您希望通過定價和其他成本行動來抵消 3% 的額外原材料。想想有機增長,當你在下半年有正的 LVP 增長時,你是否期望回到正常的運營槓桿水平?或者您是否認為由於更高的運費成本以及流入該部分運營的所有內容,這可能會繼續滯後,並且所有利潤率的提高都將來自定價會有所幫助?

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • No, we believe that the underlying, say, operational leverage should be within the range that we're normally talking about, 20% to 30% and probably at the higher end of that range when you exclude for the inflationary pressure.

    不,我們認為基本的運營槓桿應該在我們通常談論的範圍內,即 20% 到 30%,並且在排除通脹壓力時可能處於該範圍的較高端。

  • So if you take those costs out but also the recovery. So the underlying operational performance should be at the upper end of that 20% to 30% range is our expectation here.

    所以,如果你把這些成本都拿出來,還能恢復。因此,我們的預期是基礎運營績效應該在 20% 到 30% 範圍的上限。

  • Philipp Konig - Research Analyst

    Philipp Konig - Research Analyst

  • Okay. And then my second question, just quickly on the FX. Obviously, there was quite a minimal impact on the EBIT line, although it was fairly more material on the revenues. Is that sort of something you expect going forward given the hedges that you have in place?

    好的。然後是我的第二個問題,很快就談到了 FX。顯然,對息稅前利潤的影響很小,儘管它對收入的影響相當大。考慮到您現有的對沖措施,您是否期望這種情況發生?

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • Yes. So we're expecting roughly a 3% translational effect on revenues. So slightly lower for the full year than what we had in the first quarter here.

    是的。因此,我們預計對收入的轉化影響約為 3%。因此,全年略低於我們第一季度的水平。

  • Philipp Konig - Research Analyst

    Philipp Konig - Research Analyst

  • And on the EBIT?

    在息稅前利潤上?

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • What we can see at the moment, it's not a material effect.

    我們目前所看到的,並不是物質效應。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Chris McNally of Evercore.

    我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Chris McNally。

  • Christopher Patrick McNally - Senior MD

    Christopher Patrick McNally - Senior MD

  • One recap and then one on incremental decremental margins. So focusing on that Slide 19, just to recap on the extra 300 basis points of raw materials from all the questions so far. So is it fair to characterize that it's not really about spot prices having increased? But essentially, when you made the guidance in the beginning of the year, you were expecting, let's call it, lower steel and magnesium costs for the second half into '23, that now because prices are elevated, is an incremental pressure to your guidance. And you're obviously going to price for that, but there's a delay. Just wanted to make sure I understood that dynamic.

    一個回顧,然後一個關於增量遞減利潤。因此,專注於幻燈片 19,只是為了回顧迄今為止所有問題中額外的 300 個原材料基點。那麼,將其定性為不是真的與現貨價格上漲有關是否公平?但本質上,當你在年初制定指導方針時,你期待,讓我們稱之為,在 23 年下半年降低鋼鐵和鎂的成本,現在由於價格上漲,對你的指導方針施加了越來越大的壓力.你顯然會為此付出代價,但會有延遲。只是想確保我理解這種動態。

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • Yes, that's a correct assessment or conclusion. It is that we don't, as we have said many times, we don't buy on the spot markets, but the developments of the spot markets have also impacted the prices at which we know can close, say, are more long-term agreements.

    是的,這是一個正確的評估或結論。正如我們多次說過的那樣,我們不會在現貨市場上購買,但現貨市場的發展也影響了我們知道可以收盤的價格,例如,更長時間-期限協議。

  • And that's the effect that we talked about. We have then increased our commercial recovery ambitions accordingly. But as Mikael has laid out, there will be a continuous timing or time lag effect should these material costs materialize as they are now, say, as we are guiding for them, yes.

    這就是我們談到的效果。然後,我們相應地增加了我們的商業復甦雄心。但正如 Mikael 所闡述的那樣,如果這些材料成本像現在這樣成為現實,比如我們正在為它們提供指導,是的,將會有持續的時間或時間滯後效應。

  • Christopher Patrick McNally - Senior MD

    Christopher Patrick McNally - Senior MD

  • Okay. Well understood. So then the second question is really on the first bar on decremental margins associated with lower production. I mean obviously, I don't think that the Slide 19 is maybe fully to scale. But could you help us understand on, let's call it, the lost 6%, 7% of core production by your adjustment? What was the sort of normal decremental margin? And then on top of that, you obviously had some disruption and things like that. But just an idea from here what your decrementals and incrementals could be. Because of things like freight, it's hard for us to see what your true decremental margin was on just pure volume.

    好的。完全了解。那麼第二個問題實際上是關於與較低產量相關的遞減利潤率的第一個問題。我的意思很明顯,我不認為 Slide 19 可能完全按比例縮放。但是你能幫我們理解一下,讓我們稱之為,你的調整造成的核心產量損失的 6%、7% 嗎?什麼是正常的遞減邊際?然後最重要的是,你顯然有一些干擾和類似的事情。但只是從這裡你的減量和增量可能是什麼的一個想法。由於諸如運費之類的問題,我們很難僅根據純數量來了解您的真實遞減保證金是多少。

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • No, it's what I said before. I mean if we exclude the inflationary effects. And there are -- it's not only raw material, but it is -- the vast majority is raw material. But then we also have increased labor costs. They have not picked up yet so much in the first quarter. It will be more pronounced in -- from Q2 going forward.

    不,這是我之前說的。我的意思是,如果我們排除通脹影響。還有——不僅是原材料,而且是——絕大多數是原材料。但隨後我們也增加了勞動力成本。他們在第一季度還沒有回升太多。從第二季度開始,它將更加明顯。

  • And then, of course, also logistics cost and utilities. But as I said, it is -- raw material is the vast majority of that. And that -- if you exclude for that, then our operating leverage is at the upper end of the 30% or 20% to 30% range if we look at the underlying performance of the business.

    然後,當然還有物流成本和公用事業。但正如我所說,它是——原材料是其中的絕大部分。而且 - 如果您排除這一點,那麼如果我們查看業務的基本表現,那麼我們的運營槓桿處於 30% 或 20% 至 30% 範圍的上限。

  • Christopher Patrick McNally - Senior MD

    Christopher Patrick McNally - Senior MD

  • Okay. So at the higher end of the ramp and on top of it is the things like sort of expediated freight. I mean the only reason I asked is things like labor cost, I'm not sure how much that's changed in the last 2 months.

    好的。因此,在坡道的較高端和頂部是諸如加急貨運之類的東西。我的意思是我問的唯一原因是勞動力成本之類的問題,我不確定過去 2 個月有多少變化。

  • Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

    Fredrik Westin - CFO & EVP of Finance

  • Labor cost inflation has not been material or not very significant to date. I mean it's the way that we -- that our contracts are set up. It's something that typically starts at the end of the first quarter and then is in the run rate as of the second quarter going forward. But that was not so much an impact in the first quarter. It was more what I said before, that the COVID shutdowns and the supply chain volatility led to lower operational efficiency and productivity in our operations. And that was an issue here in the first quarter.

    迄今為止,勞動力成本上漲並不嚴重或不是很顯著。我的意思是,這是我們建立合同的方式。這通常在第一季度末開始,然後在第二季度開始運行。但這對第一季度的影響不大。正如我之前所說,COVID 關閉和供應鏈波動導致我們的運營效率和生產力降低。這是第一季度的一個問題。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Our next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson at Barclays.

    我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Brian Johnson。

  • Brian Arthur Johnson - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Brian Arthur Johnson - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • And thank you for your very kind of honest and kind of open lift the situation on the ground with inflation. I just want to kind of get a little bit understanding. When we came into the year, you were looking towards productive negotiations with the customers to get back to that 10% to 11% margin targets, where you've been kind of since then, OEM margins continue to expand. But clearly, the pain on suppliers with fixed-price contracts is increasing. So are the OEMs expect you to take some pain share and live with lower margins in this environment? Or can they see their way to getting you -- not that this would be your thinking, back to your original margin targets?

    感謝您以非常誠實和開放的態度解除通貨膨脹的實際情況。我只是想稍微了解一下。當我們進入這一年時,您正在尋求與客戶進行富有成效的談判,以恢復 10% 到 11% 的利潤率目標,從那時起您一直在這個目標上,OEM 利潤率繼續擴大。但顯然,固定價格合同供應商的痛苦正在增加。那麼,原始設備製造商是否希望您在這種環境中分擔一些痛苦並以較低的利潤率生活?或者他們是否能找到讓你滿意的方法——不是說這會是你的想法,回到你原來的利潤目標?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • No, I can't comment on what the OEMs are planning or thinking. But I mean, in terms of pain sharing, I think it's quite visible the effects we have had here as a result of the increased prices here. And we are absolute determined here that this needs to be passed on, and that's what we're working accordingly as we have expressed here.

    不,我無法評論 OEM 的計劃或想法。但我的意思是,就痛苦分擔而言,我認為由於這裡的價格上漲,我們在這裡所產生的影響是非常明顯的。我們在這裡絕對確定需要將其傳遞下去,這就是我們在此表達的相應工作。

  • And once again, it's not out of the specific cost that is created here and that needs to be passed on, it is inflationary pressure and that needs to go on. So that's what we're working with. And as I said, I feel comfortable in these dialogues based on that assumption.

    再一次,這不是在這裡產生的需要轉嫁的具體成本,而是通脹壓力,需要繼續下去。所以這就是我們正在使用的。正如我所說,基於這個假設,我對這些對話感到很自在。

  • Brian Arthur Johnson - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Brian Arthur Johnson - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • And just to follow up, kind of thinking of this managerial going to put it to an OEM. Clearly, I would imagine your competitors are going after the OEMs for discussions. Every other component supplier were likely to hear this earnings season is accelerating the discussion. So just logistically, how does that get done? Is it a program-by-program negotiation? Do you have to work your way up to the CEO and get final sign-off on pricing? And just how does the timing and how is just the sheer overload, I imagine on procurement organizations that are also trying to desperately find supplies to keep their factories open, how does that affect the timing of recovery?

    只是為了跟進,有點想這位管理人員將其交給 OEM。顯然,我想您的競爭對手正在追隨原始設備製造商進行討論。其他所有零部件供應商都可能聽說這個財報季正在加速討論。所以從邏輯上講,這是怎麼做到的?是逐個程序的協商嗎?您是否必須通過自己的方式找到 CEO 並最終批准定價?我想,對於那些也在拼命尋找供應以保持工廠開工的採購組織來說,時間和超負荷情況如何,這對複甦的時間有何影響?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • No. I mean those factors you mentioned there is nothing I see or we see. I mean we have our relationships well established within the OEMs, and we access them when we need to access them. And I would say it's more a negotiation question about time rather than anything else. And of course, the daily business are running in parallel there. So it's nothing impacting there. So no, it's a pure commercial negotiation that is taking place and it's, of course, challenging times for everyone in the industry here, but nothing dramatic about that in relation to anything that needs to be done.

    不,我的意思是你提到的那些因素,我沒有看到或我們看到。我的意思是我們在原始設備製造商內部建立了良好的關係,我們在需要訪問它們時訪問它們。我想說這更多的是關於時間的談判問題,而不是其他任何問題。當然,日常業務在那裡並行運行。所以那裡沒有什麼影響。所以不,這是一場純粹的商業談判,當然,這對這裡的行業中的每個人來說都是充滿挑戰的時期,但與需要做的任何事情相比,這並沒有什麼戲劇性的。

  • Brian Arthur Johnson - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

    Brian Arthur Johnson - MD & Senior Equity Analyst

  • Okay. And just a final follow-up. You do have a substantial presence with Japanese OEMs. They just closed out their fiscal year, usually calendar first quarter is when they drop the suppliers? Did -- were you able to get recoveries there? Or did you kind of -- because Ukraine were relatively late in the quarter, do we have to kind of wait until calendar first quarter '23 for those negotiations to conclude?

    好的。只是最後的跟進。您確實在日本 OEM 中有大量業務。他們剛剛結束了他們的財政年度,通常日曆第一季度是他們放棄供應商的時候?有沒有 - 你能在那裡得到恢復嗎?或者你是不是——因為烏克蘭在本季度相對較晚,我們是否必須等到 23 年日曆第一季度才能結束這些談判?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • No. I mean I can't comment on how we succeeded with specific OEMs here. But as we have mentioned here, we were on track when it comes to the commercial recovery based on the regional scenario here. But with the war in Ukraine and additional pressure that has been applied on the supply chains and the price increases coming out of that, we needed to up our ambition levels here, and that is what is being brought back on the table here, additionally, on what was also on top. And that's true for all OEMs and all global players here.

    不,我的意思是我不能在這裡評論我們如何與特定的原始設備製造商取得成功。但正如我們在這裡提到的,根據這裡的區域情況,我們在商業復甦方面走上了正軌。但是隨著烏克蘭的戰爭以及對供應鏈施加的額外壓力以及由此產生的價格上漲,我們需要在這裡提高我們的雄心壯志水平,這就是這裡被帶回桌面的東西,此外,在上面的東西上。對於這裡的所有 OEM 和所有全球參與者來說都是如此。

  • Anders Trapp - VP of IR

    Anders Trapp - VP of IR

  • All right. I think that was the last question. We are out of time. Mark?

    好的。我想這是最後一個問題。我們沒時間了。標記?

  • Operator

    Operator

  • We did have one further question if you have time for it, but we have reached the top of the hour. So completely up to you.

    如果您有時間,我們確實還有一個問題,但我們已經到了時間的頂端。所以完全取決於你。

  • Anders Trapp - VP of IR

    Anders Trapp - VP of IR

  • Sorry, there was one more question. I thought it was all out. Yes, we take one more.

    抱歉,還有一個問題。我以為一切都結束了。是的,我們再拿一個。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • Okay. And that's on the line of Itay Michaeli of Citi.

    好的。這就是花旗的 Itay Michaeli 的觀點。

  • Itay Michaeli - Director & Global Head of Autos Sector

    Itay Michaeli - Director & Global Head of Autos Sector

  • Great. I'll just -- two quick ones, just going back on the pricing negotiations. Of what you're expecting in the second half of the year for recoveries, roughly how much of it's already been secured versus still to be negotiated? And then secondly, on the new contracts you're signing for forward programs, are you actually -- can you confirm that you're actually getting higher pricing on your content per vehicle on those programs to kind of compensate for the higher inflationary environment?

    偉大的。我只是 - 兩個快速的,只是回到定價談判。在您對下半年復甦的預期中,大約有多少已經獲得保障,而仍有待談判?其次,在您為遠期計劃簽署的新合同中,您是否真的 - 您能否確認您實際上在這些計劃的每輛車的內容上獲得了更高的定價,以補償更高的通貨膨脹環境?

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • No. As I said, we can't go in and quantify any details around it here. I mean it's all built into the -- really, the consequence -- the timing of it is built into our full year guidance, and I have to leave it like that as we are in the midst of discussions here.

    不,正如我所說,我們不能在這裡量化任何細節。我的意思是,這一切都內置於 - 實際上,結果 - 它的時間安排已內置於我們的全年指導中,我必須保持這樣的狀態,因為我們正在這裡進行討論。

  • And of course, all new quotes that is being discussed and awarded are more on the right level than, I would say, the current portfolio currently are running at. So that is, of course, taken care of there. So the bill of material it's of course, just today. Yes.

    當然,所有正在討論和授予的新報價都比我想說的當前投資組合當前運行的水平更合適。當然,這就是在那里處理的。所以當然是今天的物料清單。是的。

  • Operator

    Operator

  • And with that, there are no further questions in the queue. So I'll hand back to you for the closing comments.

    這樣一來,隊列中就沒有其他問題了。所以我會交還給你的結束意見。

  • Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

    Mikael Bratt - President, CEO & Director

  • Okay. Thank you very much, Mark. I know I speak for everyone at Autoliv in expressing our concerns for all those affected by the war in Ukraine. In this very volatile and challenging situation, we continue to monitor the development closely.

    好的。非常感謝,馬克。我知道我代表奧托立夫的每個人表達我們對所有受烏克蘭戰爭影響的人的關切。在這個非常動盪和充滿挑戰的情況下,我們將繼續密切關注事態發展。

  • Before we end today's call, I would like to say that we intend to do what it is needed to do in order to get back on track to our medium-term targets. And I'm confident that Autoliv will come out of this challenging time as a stronger company.

    在結束今天的電話會議之前,我想說,我們打算做我們需要做的事情,以重回我們的中期目標。我相信奧托立夫將作為一家更強大的公司走出這個充滿挑戰的時期。

  • Meanwhile, Autoliv continues to focus on our vision of saving more lives, which is our most important contribution to a sustainable society. Our second quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, July 22, 2022.

    與此同時,奧托立夫繼續專注於我們拯救更多生命的願景,這是我們對可持續發展社會的最重要貢獻。我們的第二季度財報電話會議定於 2022 年 7 月 22 日星期五舉行。

  • Thank you, everyone, for participating on today's call. We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv. Until next time, stay safe.

    謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。我們衷心感謝您對 Autoliv 的持續關注。直到下一次,保持安全。