Assurant Inc (AIZ) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Assurant's First Quarter 2023 Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor to Suzanne Shepherd, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations in Sustainability. You may now begin.

歡迎觀看 Assurant 2023 年第一季度電話會議和網絡直播。 （操作員說明）現在我很高興將發言權交給可持續發展投資者關係高級副總裁 Suzanne Shepherd。你現在可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our first quarter 2023 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant's conference call are Keith Demmings, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Richard Dziadzio, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家早上好。我們期待今天與您討論我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。與我一起參加 Assurant 電話會議的有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Keith Demmings；和我們的首席財務官 Richard Dziadzio。

Yesterday, after the market closed, we issued a news release announcing our results for the first quarter of 2023. The release and corresponding financial supplement are available on assurant.com. We will start today's call with remarks from Keith & Richard before moving into a Q&A session. Some of the statements made today are forward-looking.

昨天，收市後，我們發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了我們 2023 年第一季度的業績。新聞稿和相應的財務補充資料可在 assurant.com 上獲取。在進入問答環節之前，我們將以 Keith 和 Richard 的發言開始今天的電話會議。今天發表的一些聲明具有前瞻性。

Forward-looking statements are based upon our historical performance and current expectations and subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements. Additional information regarding these factors can be found in yesterday's earnings release and financial supplement as well as in our SEC reports. During today's call, we refer to non-GAAP financial measures which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance. For more details on these measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the two, please refer to yesterday's news release and financial supplement.

前瞻性陳述基於我們的歷史業績和當前預期，並受風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響，這些因素可能導致實際結果與這些陳述預期的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素的更多信息可以在昨天的收益發布和財務補充以及我們的 SEC 報告中找到。在今天的電話會議中，我們提到了我們認為對評估公司業績很重要的非 GAAP 財務指標。有關這些措施的更多詳細信息、最具可比性的 GAAP 措施以及兩者的調節，請參閱昨天的新聞稿和財務補充。

I will now turn the call over to Keith.

我現在將把電話轉給基思。

Thanks, Suzanne, and good morning, everyone. We're pleased by our first quarter results, which reflected better-than-expected performance within our Global Housing business and our ongoing focus on driving operating excellence across Assurant. The actions we announced in 2022 to simplify our business and real estate portfolio realign our organizational structure and accelerate the deployment of digital-first experiences are beginning to yield measurable results.

謝謝，蘇珊娜，大家早上好。我們對第一季度的業績感到滿意，這反映出我們全球住房業務的業績好於預期，以及我們持續致力於推動 Assurant 的卓越運營。我們在 2022 年宣布的旨在簡化我們的業務和房地產投資組合以重新調整我們的組織結構並加速部署數字優先體驗的行動開始產生可衡量的結果。

While early, gross savings generated from these initiatives are helping to mitigate the impact of broader macroeconomic headwinds and fund additional critical investments in innovation and our talent. This was reflected in Global Lifestyle's results for the quarter, which improved sequentially in line with our expectations. Our first quarter results also continued to demonstrate the leadership advantages of our well-diversified business portfolio and our global client base. We believe we are well-positioned to deliver on our financial objectives for 2023, and we will continue to prudently manage our capital to drive shareholder value.

雖然早期，這些舉措產生的總儲蓄有助於減輕更廣泛的宏觀經濟逆風的影響，並為創新和我們的人才提供額外的關鍵投資。這反映在 Global Lifestyle 本季度的業績中，該業績的連續改善符合我們的預期。我們第一季度的業績也繼續展示了我們多元化業務組合和全球客戶群的領先優勢。我們相信我們有能力實現 2023 年的財務目標，我們將繼續審慎管理我們的資本以推動股東價值。

Looking ahead, we'll maintain a steadfast focus on execution. First, by strengthening and expanding our global partnerships; second, by driving innovation and delivering on our digital-first vision to improve the customer experience; and third, by realizing savings from ongoing expense management efforts. Recently, we were recognized as one of America's most innovative companies by Fortune, demonstrating the importance we place on finding new ways to serve our clients and fostering a culture of innovation and inclusion.

展望未來，我們將堅定不移地專注於執行。首先，通過加強和擴大我們的全球夥伴關係；其次，通過推動創新和實現我們的數字優先願景來改善客戶體驗；第三，通過持續的費用管理工作實現節省。最近，我們被《財富》雜誌評為美國最具創新力的公司之一，這表明我們非常重視尋找新的方式為客戶提供服務，並培養創新和包容的文化。

Through consumer research and investments in emerging technologies, we develop new products and services to meaningfully enhance the consumer experience, and drive competitive advantages across our key markets, including mobile, auto and housing. We continue to strengthen our large embedded base of businesses.

通過對新興技術的消費者研究和投資，我們開發新產品和服務，以有意義地提升消費者體驗，並在我們的主要市場（包括移動、汽車和住房）中推動競爭優勢。我們繼續加強我們龐大的嵌入式業務基礎。

In Global Lifestyle, we work with 15 of the top 50 most valuable global brands and provide protection and services for nearly 62 million mobile subscribers with a recurring monthly subscription service and we protect nearly 54 million automobiles across a wide range of distribution partners. Our scale supports both businesses to continue their track record of long-term growth. Our U.S. Connected Living business is expected to remain a solid growth driver, anchored by mobile device protection with marquee mobile carriers and cable operators. In addition, our trade-in business continues to be a strong contributor to overall mobile results.

在 Global Lifestyle，我們與全球最有價值品牌 50 強中的 15 個合作，通過每月定期訂閱服務為近 6200 萬移動用戶提供保護和服務，我們還為廣泛的分銷合作夥伴的近 5400 萬輛汽車提供保護。我們的規模支持兩家企業繼續保持長期增長的記錄。我們的美國互聯生活業務預計仍將是穩固的增長動力，主要依靠大型移動運營商和有線電視運營商的移動設備保護。此外，我們的以舊換新業務繼續對整體移動業績做出重要貢獻。

Our international results have begun to stabilize in line with our expectations, even as many of the factors impacting growth last year continue to persist including foreign exchange headwinds and lower business volumes. In Europe, we benefited from expense actions previously taken, leading to improved earnings when compared to the second half of 2022. Additionally, we renewed 8 key clients since the beginning of 2022, solidifying a strong foundation to support continued growth. In Japan, we're implementing actions to stabilize the impact from ongoing mobile subscriber declines and believe we are well-positioned in this critical market even as programs mature.

我們的國際業績已開始穩定下來，符合我們的預期，儘管去年影響增長的許多因素繼續存在，包括外匯逆風和業務量下降。在歐洲，我們受益於之前採取的支出措施，與 2022 年下半年相比，收益有所改善。此外，自 2022 年初以來，我們續約了 8 個主要客戶，為支持持續增長奠定了堅實的基礎。在日本，我們正在採取措施穩定移動用戶持續下降帶來的影響，並相信即使計劃成熟，我們也能在這個關鍵市場中處於有利地位。

In addition to our multiyear partnership with KDDI, we're growing our footprint through expanded relationships with other large Japanese carriers. We're leveraging our core mobile solutions and technology offerings to help optimize operations and launch new services. Moving to Global Auto.

除了與 KDDI 的多年合作夥伴關係外，我們還通過擴大與其他大型日本運營商的關係來擴大我們的足跡。我們正在利用我們的核心移動解決方案和技術產品來幫助優化運營和推出新服務。轉向全球汽車。

We're making steady progress integrating and leveraging recent acquisitions to support commercial success with new partnerships like CNH Industrial, which leverages the combined expertise of our legacy Assurant Lease and Finance business and the broad capabilities of our EPG acquisition. Outside of the U.S., we focused on expanding our share with OEMs. And in Latin America and Europe, we signed 2 new business partnerships in the quarter. Overall, in Lifestyle, while we remain cautious in the short term, given ongoing global macroeconomic uncertainty, we continue to expect modest growth for the full year.

我們在整合和利用最近的收購方面取得了穩步進展，以支持 CNH Industrial 等新合作夥伴的商業成功，它利用了我們傳統的 Assurant 租賃和金融業務的綜合專業知識以及我們 EPG 收購的廣泛能力。在美國以外，我們專注於擴大與原始設備製造商的份額。在拉丁美洲和歐洲，我們在本季度簽署了 2 個新的業務合作夥伴關係。總體而言，在生活方式方面，雖然我們在短期內保持謹慎，但鑑於全球宏觀經濟持續存在不確定性，我們仍預計全年將適度增長。

Within Global Housing, we continue to simplify our focus on product lines where we have clear competitive advantages and scale. We operate a countercyclical market-leading lender-placed business that has generated significant cash flow and attractive returns over the long term, while we invest to drive growth in our capital-light renters insurance business. Despite higher-than-expected cat activity this quarter, Global Housing had a strong start to the year as adjusted EBITDA, excluding cats, increased 7%.

在 Global Housing 內部，我們繼續簡化我們對具有明顯競爭優勢和規模的產品線的關注。我們經營反週期市場領先的貸款業務，長期產生可觀的現金流和有吸引力的回報，同時我們投資以推動輕資本租戶保險業務的增長。儘管本季度的貓活動高於預期，但全球住房在今年開局強勁，調整後的 EBITDA（不包括貓）增長了 7%。

In homeowners, which is primarily driven by lender-placed, top line grew 16%, both from higher policy growth and higher average insured values and rates, partially offset by increased non-cat losses and cats reinsurance costs. Policy growth came from both new and existing clients. In lender-placed, our ability to drive higher premiums both through our inflation guard product feature and rate actions have helped to offset continued inflation impacts on claims, which remain elevated across global housing.

在主要由貸方放置的房主中，收入增長了 16%，這主要是由於更高的保單增長和更高的平均保險價值和利率，部分被非巨災損失和巨災再保險成本的增加所抵消。保單增長來自新客戶和現有客戶。在貸方放置中，我們通過我們的通脹保護產品功能和利率行動推動更高保費的能力有助於抵消持續的通脹對索賠的影響，這種影響在全球住房中仍然處於高位。

Entering the second quarter, the impact of inflation on building materials and labor costs is beginning to show signs of improvement. As we consider the magnitude and pace of earnings recovery for Global Housing over the year, it will be important to see how ongoing loss experience improves over the next few quarters. Let's turn to our enterprise outlook and capital.

進入二季度，通脹對建材和人工成本的影響開始出現好轉跡象。當我們考慮 Global Housing 全年盈利復甦的幅度和速度時，重要的是要了解未來幾個季度持續虧損的情況如何改善。再說說我們的企業觀和資本。

Reflecting on the quarter and current market conditions, we continue to expect to grow adjusted EBITDA, excluding reportable cats, by low single digits this year. Adjusted EPS growth is still expected to trail adjusted EBITDA growth both excluding reportable cats, primarily reflecting higher annual depreciation expenses related to several strategic technology investments critical to executing our strategy, a higher consolidated effective tax rate compared to favorable rates in 2022 and the timing of capital deployment. From a capital perspective, we upstreamed a $112 million of segment dividends in the first quarter and ended the quarter with $383 million of holding company liquidity. We've been carefully monitoring the broader business and macroeconomic environment as we consider capital deployment. We now expect to resume share repurchases later in the second quarter, but at modest levels, given the ongoing market volatility. We expect the majority of share repurchases to be weighted toward the end of the year and maybe below 2022 underlying buyback activity.

考慮到本季度和當前的市場狀況，我們繼續預計今年調整後的 EBITDA（不包括應報告的貓）將以低個位數增長。調整後的每股收益增長預計仍將落後於調整後的 EBITDA 增長，兩者均不包括應報告的巨災，這主要反映了與對執行我們戰略至關重要的幾項戰略技術投資相關的年度折舊費用增加、與 2022 年的優惠稅率相比更高的綜合有效稅率以及資本配置。從資本的角度來看，我們在第一季度上游分紅 1.12 億美元，並在本季度末以 3.83 億美元的控股公司流動資金。在考慮資本部署時，我們一直在仔細監測更廣泛的商業和宏觀經濟環境。我們現在預計將在第二季度晚些時候恢復股票回購，但考慮到持續的市場波動，回購幅度適中。我們預計大部分股票回購將在年底前進行，並且可能低於 2022 年的潛在回購活動。

As we look ahead, we're focused on the continued execution of our vision to be the leading global business services provider supporting the advancement of the connected world. We believe our strong global client partnerships and our ability to innovate for more than 300 million customers will be critical to achieving our vision.

展望未來，我們專注於繼續執行我們的願景，即成為支持互聯世界進步的全球領先商業服務提供商。我們相信，我們強大的全球客戶合作夥伴關係以及我們為超過 3 億客戶進行創新的能力對於實現我們的願景至關重要。

I'll now turn the call over to Richard to review the first quarter results and our 2023 outlook in greater detail. Richard?

我現在將電話轉給理查德，以更詳細地審查第一季度業績和我們 2023 年的展望。理查德？

Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. For the first quarter of 2023, adjusted EBITDA, excluding reportable catastrophes, totaled $293 million, down $22 million or 7% year-over-year and 5% on a constant currency basis. While the results were lower than the prior year, they came in above our expectations, driven by stronger Global Housing performance. Adjusted earnings per share, excluding reportable catastrophes, totaled $3 million and $0.49 (sic) [$3.49] for the quarter, down 12% year-over-year, primarily from lower segment earnings a higher effective tax rate compared to favorability in the prior period and a higher depreciation expense.

謝謝你，基思，大家早上好。 2023 年第一季度，調整後的 EBITDA（不包括可報告的災難）總計 2.93 億美元，同比下降 2200 萬美元或 7%，按固定匯率計算下降 5%。儘管結果低於上一年，但在全球住房表現強勁的推動下，它們超出了我們的預期。本季度調整後的每股收益（不包括可報告的災難）總計 300 萬美元和 0.49 美元（原文如此）[3.49 美元]，同比下降 12%，這主要是由於較低的部門收益以及與上一期間的有利程度相比較高的有效稅率和更高的折舊費用。

Now let's move to segment results, starting with Global Lifestyle. The segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $199 million in the first quarter, a 12% decline year-over-year or a 10% decline on a constant currency basis. The decrease came from lower results in both Connected Living and Global Automotive, partially offset by higher investment income. Connected Living earnings were down 15% or 11% on a constant currency basis from decreases in extended service contracts and weaker international results.

現在讓我們從 Global Lifestyle 開始細分結果。該部門報告第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.99 億美元，同比下降 12% 或按固定匯率計算下降 10%。減少來自互聯生活和全球汽車業務的較低業績，部分被較高的投資收入所抵消。由於延長服務合同減少和國際業績疲軟，互聯生活收入按固定匯率計算下降了 15% 或 11%。

Extended service contract results were lower due to an increase in claims costs and in particular, relative to the prior year quarter, which included favorable claims experience. We expect a modest level of higher cost to persist during the remainder of the year. The level of which will depend on the broader inflation trends in the market. However, we have recently implemented rate increases with several clients, which should begin to flow through during the course of the year, mitigating the increase.

由於索賠成本增加，特別是與去年同期相比，延長服務合同結果較低，其中包括有利的索賠經驗。我們預計在今年餘下的時間裡，成本將保持適度的上漲。其水平將取決於市場上更廣泛的通脹趨勢。然而，我們最近對幾個客戶實施了利率上調，這應該會在年內開始流動，從而減輕漲幅。

In mobile, earnings were down as expected from softer international results, mainly in Asia Pacific and unfavorable foreign exchange, both of which are expected to continue. U.S. mobile earnings were flat year-over-year as modest mobile subscriber growth in North America device protection programs from carrier and cable operator clients was offset by lower mobile trading results. Trade and margins were impacted by device mix from carrier promotions and slightly lower volumes, mainly due to the discontinuation of in-store service and repair. Sequentially, however, we are seeing improved mobile performance including in the U.S. and Europe, as results benefit from expense management and more favorable loss experience compared to trends that emerged in the second half of 2022, while declines in Japan have started to stabilize.

在移動領域，由於國際業績疲軟（主要是亞太地區）和不利的外匯影響，收入如預期的那樣下降，預計這兩種情況都將持續。由於來自運營商和有線電視運營商客戶的北美設備保護計劃的移動用戶適度增長被較低的移動交易結果所抵消，美國移動收入同比持平。貿易和利潤率受到運營商促銷的設備組合和銷量略有下降的影響，這主要是由於停止店內服務和維修。然而，與 2022 年下半年出現的趨勢相比，與 2022 年下半年出現的趨勢相比，我們看到包括美國和歐洲在內的移動性能有所改善，因為結果受益於費用管理和更有利的損失經驗，而日本的下降已經開始趨於穩定。

Turning to Global Automotive. Earnings decreased $8 million or 9% and $5 million, excluding real estate joint venture gains from the first quarter. Similar to others in the industry, the auto business was impacted by a rise in severity from higher parts and labor costs that contributed to elevated claims. We expect to recover a portion of the higher claims cost over time through client contract structures though we expect elevated claims experience to persist throughout this year. The auto earnings decrease was partially offset by growth in the U.S. across distribution channels. And although higher claims costs across auto and extended service contracts are being driven by inflation, these businesses are also benefiting from higher investment income due to higher yields.

轉向全球汽車。收益減少 800 萬美元或 9% 和 500 萬美元，其中不包括第一季度的房地產合資收益。與業內其他公司類似，汽車業務受到零件和勞動力成本上升導致索賠增加的嚴重程度上升的影響。我們預計隨著時間的推移，通過客戶合同結構收回部分較高的索賠成本，儘管我們預計今年全年索賠經驗將持續增加。汽車收入的下降部分被美國各分銷渠道的增長所抵消。儘管通貨膨脹推動了汽車和延期服務合同的索賠成本上升，但這些企業也因更高的收益率而受益於更高的投資收入。

Turning to net earned premiums, fees and other income. Lifestyle was up by $52 million or 3%. This growth was primarily driven by Global Automotive, reflecting strong prior period sales of vehicle service contracts. Connected Living net earned premiums fees and other income decreased 5%. This reflects an approximately $65 million impact from the previously disclosed new contract structures as well as premium declines related to mobile runoff programs. Excluding these contract changes in foreign currency, Connected Living's revenues grew by 4%. The quarter benefited from growth in mobile subscribers in North America and higher contributions from extended service contracts.

轉向淨收入保費、費用和其他收入。 Lifestyle 增加了 5200 萬美元或 3%。這一增長主要由全球汽車業務推動，反映了前期車輛服務合同的強勁銷售。 Connected Living 淨賺保費和其他收入下降 5%。這反映了先前披露的新合同結構以及與移動徑流計劃相關的保費下降帶來的約 6500 萬美元的影響。排除這些外幣合同變更，Connected Living 的收入增長了 4%。本季度受益於北美移動用戶的增長以及延長服務合同的貢獻增加。

For full year 2023, we expect modest growth for Global Lifestyle, supported by the ongoing expansion of new and existing partnerships, particularly in Connected Living and accelerating expense savings throughout the year. We also expect increasing contributions from investment income and the positive impact from the actions mentioned to address rising claims cost. In terms of net earned premiums fees and other income for 2023, Lifestyle is still expected to grow modestly as growth in Global Automotive is partially offset by ongoing foreign exchange headwinds.

對於 2023 年全年，我們預計 Global Lifestyle 將適度增長，這得益於新的和現有合作夥伴關係的持續擴張，特別是在互聯生活領域，以及全年加速的費用節省。我們還預計投資收入的貢獻將增加，以及上述解決索賠成本上升的行動將產生積極影響。就 2023 年的淨已賺保費和其他收入而言，由於全球汽車業務的增長被持續的外匯逆風部分抵消，Lifestyle 預計仍將溫和增長。

Moving to Global Housing. Adjusted EBITDA was $68 million which included a $43 million increase in reportable catastrophes from severe weather and tornado events. Excluding reportable catastrophes, adjusted EBITDA was $118 million up $7 million or 7%. The stronger-than-expected results were driven by Homeowners' top line performance, mainly from lender-placed policy growth as well as higher average insured values and premium rates. Policy growth was mainly from expanded loan portfolios of new and existing clients, although we do expect the client portfolio to run off our books as the year progresses.

搬到全球住房。調整後的 EBITDA 為 6800 萬美元，其中包括惡劣天氣和龍捲風事件導致的可報告災難增加 4300 萬美元。不包括可報告的災難，調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.18 億美元，增長 700 萬美元或 7%。強於預期的結果是由房主的收入表現推動的，主要來自貸方保單增長以及更高的平均保險價值和保險費率。政策增長主要來自新客戶和現有客戶擴大的貸款組合，儘管我們確實預計客戶組合會隨著時間的推移從我們的賬面上消失。

While non-Cat loss experienced across all major products increased by $32 million, our performance in the quarter demonstrates our ability to more than offset the inflation impacts. Catastrophe reinsurance costs also increased in line with our expectations.

雖然所有主要產品的非巨災損失增加了 3200 萬美元，但我們在本季度的表現表明我們有能力抵消通貨膨脹的影響。巨災再保險成本的增長也符合我們的預期。

In renters and Other, earnings decreased from expected higher non-Cat losses, which should continue throughout the year. For full year 2023, we continue to expect Global Housing adjusted EBITDA, excluding reportable Cats, to grow due to improved performance in Homeowners, driven by top line expansion from higher rates and policy growth in lender-placed and by ongoing expense actions to be realized over the course of the year. We are monitoring potential changes in the reinsurance market as we place the remaining [1/3] of our reinsurance program in the coming months. Currently, we anticipate the cost to increase year-over-year, in line with our previous expectations.

在租房者和其他方面，收入因預期較高的非巨災損失而下降，這種情況應該會持續到全年。對於 2023 年全年，我們繼續預計全球住房調整後的 EBITDA（不包括可報告的巨災）將增長，原因是房主的業績有所改善，這是由於較高的利率和放貸人的保單增長帶來的收入擴張以及將要實現的持續支出行動所推動的在這一年的過程中。我們正在監測再保險市場的潛在變化，因為我們將在未來幾個月內安排剩餘的 [1/3] 再保險計劃。目前，我們預計成本將逐年增加，這與我們之前的預期一致。

Lastly, we are not anticipating a significant improvement in lender-placed non-catastrophe losses until later in the year and continue to monitor the impact of inflation closely. Please also keep in mind that the second quarter tends to be a seasonally elevated period for non-cat losses.

最後，我們預計直到今年晚些時候貸方放置的非災難性損失才會有顯著改善，並繼續密切監測通貨膨脹的影響。還請記住，第二季度往往是非巨災損失的季節性高發期。

Moving to corporate. The first quarter adjusted EBITDA loss was $24 million, up $2 million driven by lower investment income. For the full year 2023, we continue to expect corporate adjusted EBITDA loss to be approximately $105 million. Given the market volatility over the last quarter, I also want to take a moment to discuss our investment portfolio.

搬到公司。第一季度調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 2400 萬美元，由於投資收入下降，增加了 200 萬美元。對於 2023 年全年，我們繼續預計公司調整後的 EBITDA 虧損約為 1.05 億美元。鑑於上個季度的市場波動，我還想花點時間討論一下我們的投資組合。

Investments cash and cash equivalents had a value of $9.3 billion at the end of Q1. The portfolio is high quality and diversified, reflecting our conservative investment philosophy. Fixed maturity investments in cash and cash equivalents represented 86% of our total portfolio. An estimated 94% of our fixed income securities are investment-grade rated. And overall, our U.S. regional bank exposure is modest.

第一季度末投資現金和現金等價物的價值為 93 億美元。投資組合質量高且多元化，體現了我們保守的投資理念。現金和現金等價物的固定期限投資占我們總投資組合的 86%。我們估計 94% 的固定收益證券具有投資級評級。總體而言，我們對美國地區銀行的風險敞口不大。

We also have commercial real estate investments across a number of investment vehicles with the overall portfolio performing well. Our assets are diversified across geographic regions and property type with low average security size and have attractive loan-to-value and debt coverage servicing ratios. For example, our commercial mortgage loan portfolio represents approximately 3% of our investment portfolio with approximately 130 loans with an average loan amount of about $2.3 million. The loan portfolio is highly diversified across the U.S., including a variety of property classes and with office buildings representing 11% or approximately $34 million of the loan portfolio and our real estate equity portfolio represents only 2% of our investment portfolio. It is also a diverse portfolio with only 4 office assets with a $26 million book value.

我們還通過多種投資工具進行商業房地產投資，整體投資組合表現良好。我們的資產分佈於不同的地理區域和財產類型，平均證券規模較低，貸款價值比和償債比率具有吸引力。例如，我們的商業抵押貸款組合約占我們投資組合的 3%，約有 130 筆貸款，平均貸款金額約為 230 萬美元。美國的貸款組合高度多元化，包括各種物業類別和占貸款組合 11% 或約 3400 萬美元的辦公樓，而我們的房地產股權組合僅占我們投資組合的 2%。它也是一個多元化的投資組合，只有 4 個辦公資產，賬面價值為 2600 萬美元。

We also have CMBS and REIT positions with 98% of those investments being investment-grade rated. While certainly not risk-free, we believe our investment portfolio is relatively low risk as it relates to current macroeconomic headwinds.

我們還有 CMBS 和 REIT 頭寸，其中 98% 的投資被評為投資級。雖然肯定不是沒有風險，但我們認為我們的投資組合風險相對較低，因為它與當前的宏觀經濟逆風有關。

Turning to holding company liquidity. We ended the quarter with $383 million. In the first quarter, dividends from our operating segments totaled $112 million. During the quarter, we issued $175 million in 2026 senior notes and redeemed a portion of the $225 million of senior notes due in 2023. We intend to redeem the balance of the notes on or prior to maturity in September.

轉向控股公司的流動性。我們以 3.83 億美元結束了本季度。第一季度，我們運營部門的股息總額為 1.12 億美元。本季度，我們發行了 1.75 億美元的 2026 年優先票據，並贖回了 2023 年到期的 2.25 億美元優先票據中的一部分。我們打算在 9 月到期或之前贖回票據余額。

In addition to the $136 million of cash used for corporate and interest expenses, first quarter cash flows included $37 million of common stock dividends. For the year, we expect our businesses to continue to generate meaningful cash flow, approximating 65% of segment adjusted EBITDA, including reportable catastrophes. Cash flow expectations assume a continuation of the current macroeconomic environment and are subject to the growth of the businesses, investment portfolio performance, and rating agency and regulatory requirements.

除了用於公司和利息支出的 1.36 億美元現金外，第一季度現金流還包括 3700 萬美元的普通股股息。今年，我們預計我們的業務將繼續產生有意義的現金流，約佔部門調整後 EBITDA 的 65%，包括可報告的災難。現金流量預期假定當前宏觀經濟環境持續存在，並受業務增長、投資組合績效以及評級機構和監管要求的影響。

As Keith mentioned, given our performance in the first quarter and our current expectations for cash generation, we plan to resume modest buybacks as we exit the second quarter. We will continue to monitor the macroeconomic environment and adjust accordingly.

正如 Keith 所提到的，鑑於我們在第一季度的表現以及我們目前對現金產生的預期，我們計劃在第二季度結束時恢復適度回購。我們將繼續監測宏觀經濟環境並作出相應調整。

In summary, our performance in the first quarter provides us with the confidence in our full year outlook. And while macroeconomic uncertainty will likely continue throughout the year, we believe the strength and momentum of our businesses and strong cash flow generation are powerful differentiators for Assurant.

總之，我們在第一季度的表現讓我們對全年展望充滿信心。儘管全年宏觀經濟不確定性可能會持續存在，但我們相信我們業務的實力和勢頭以及強勁的現金流生成是 Assurant 的強大差異化因素。

And with that, operator, please open the call for questions.

有了這個，接線員，請打開問題電話。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is coming from Tommy McJoynt from KBW.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tommy McJoynt。

So the first one, with regards to your comments on the claims cost in the Lifestyle business, so in the past, you've distinguished between the lifestyle partners where you hold the ultimate risk and the partners where the risk ultimately goes back to the partners. Could you give into a bit more detail on the timing of how some of those unfavorable claims could weigh on earnings in the current period but ultimately get recovered in the future periods. And what is the magnitude of those swings? Just from our standpoint, should we kind of see these numbers kind of [add] the flow in the numbers.

所以第一個，關於您對生活方式業務中理賠成本的評論，所以在過去，您區分了您承擔最終風險的生活方式合作夥伴和風險最終返回合作夥伴的合作夥伴.您能否更詳細地說明一些不利索賠如何影響當前期間的收益但最終在未來期間收回的時間。這些波動的幅度有多大？從我們的角度來看，我們是否應該看到這些數字有點 [添加] 數字中的流量。

Yes. So maybe I can try to take that and then certainly, Richard, feel free to add in. I'd probably point to a couple of things. I'll set aside housing, which I'm sure we'll talk about later in the progress there from an inflation perspective. Nothing really to report on the mobile side. So a lot of stability mobile-ly -- in terms of the mobile business around severity. So that's come in line fairly nicely in the last couple of quarters.

是的。所以也許我可以嘗試接受它，然後理查德，當然可以隨意添加。我可能會指出幾件事。我會把住房放在一邊，我相信我們稍後會從通貨膨脹的角度討論那裡的進展。在移動端沒有什麼可報告的。因此，就移動業務的嚴重性而言，移動穩定性很高。因此，在過去幾個季度中，這一點相當不錯。

We've signaled some pressure on the ESC. So the retail service contract side of the business. We've actually been taking rate increases with our partners adjusting program coverages, but also putting rate in place. So we saw a little bit of pressure in the first quarter, which is continued, I'd say, over the last 3 or 4 quarters or so. We expect that to moderate over the rest of the year. So we've taken action that will start to benefit through in terms of the earned premium this year. And hopefully, that will slow down that impact over the rest of '23.

我們已經表示對 ESC 施加了一些壓力。因此，業務的零售服務合同方。我們實際上一直在與我們的合作夥伴一起提高利率，調整計劃覆蓋範圍，但也將利率落實到位。所以我們在第一季度看到了一點壓力，我想說，在過去的 3 或 4 個季度左右，這種壓力還在繼續。我們預計在今年餘下的時間裡這種情況會有所緩和。因此，我們採取了將在今年的已賺保費方面開始受益的行動。希望這將減緩對 23 年剩餘時間的影響。

Where we are seeing a little more pressure is on the auto side, we talked about this a little bit last quarter, but certainly elevated severities in the repair shops, both in terms of parts costs and labor costs. We're definitely seeing that come through in our performance. As you rightly suggested, we do share risk with a lot of our partners. So the vast majority of our deals are either reinsured or profit shared. So we're keeping a residual amount of that severity risk. We do recover that in a lot of cases through repricing with our clients, whether contractually required, which is often the case or just with the partners, we'll work to try to achieve target loss ratios over time.

我們看到汽車方面的壓力更大一些，我們在上個季度討論了一點，但在零件成本和勞動力成本方面肯定會提高維修店的嚴重程度。我們肯定會在我們的表現中看到這一點。正如您正確建議的那樣，我們確實與許多合作夥伴分擔風險。因此，我們的絕大多數交易要么是再保險，要么是利潤分享。因此，我們保留了剩餘的嚴重風險。我們確實在很多情況下通過與客戶重新定價來恢復這一點，無論是合同要求（通常是這種情況還是僅與合作夥伴），我們將努力隨著時間的推移實現目標損失率。

So we've already started taking pricing actions. We started taking certain actions more than 6 months ago, around the auto business, and that should benefit us as we flow through probably more helpful in '24 than '23, we'll definitely still see some pressure this year in the auto results. We do expect to see progress in auto, over the balance of the year in '23. We are seeing good growth in revenue. We're also seeing help in terms of the investment income portfolio, and those are helping to offset some of the pressure on severities.

所以我們已經開始採取定價行動。我們在 6 個多月前開始圍繞汽車業務採取某些行動，這應該對我們有利，因為我們在 24 年的流動可能比 23 年更有幫助，我們肯定會在今年的汽車業績中看到一些壓力。我們確實希望看到汽車在 23 年的餘下時間裡取得進展。我們看到收入增長良好。我們也看到了投資收益組合方面的幫助，這些幫助抵消了嚴重程度的一些壓力。

And then just my second question, what specifically are you seeing that's different from previously that gives you comfort to resume the buyback assumingly just maybe a month or 2 ahead of prior plan? And how much of that is attributed to just looking at where the stock is trading relative to your assessment of intrinsic value?

然後是我的第二個問題，你看到的具體是什麼與以前不同，讓你放心地恢復回購，假設可能比之前的計劃提前一兩個月？其中有多少是因為僅查看股票相對於您對內在價值評估的交易位置？

Yes, I think as we sit here today, we've got a lot of confidence in our cash flow generation as a company. The strength of the business model. And I would say the positive momentum that we've seen in the housing business, the fact that we are seeing improving housing cost inflation indicators. We obviously had a really strong fourth quarter that repeated in the first quarter. We're seeing some improvement in terms of inflation, and that gave us more confidence as we think about the full year outlook and our ability to deliver against that. And to your point, we're starting a little bit earlier but we do want to capitalize on the fact that we think our stock is attractively valued, and we feel like there's a good opportunity for us to get back into the market and be more consistent with our buyback activity as we move forward.

是的，我認為當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們對公司的現金流產生充滿信心。商業模式的實力。我要說的是我們在住房業務中看到的積極勢頭，我們看到住房成本通脹指標正在改善。顯然，我們在第四季度表現非常強勁，在第一季度重複了一遍。我們看到通貨膨脹方面有所改善，這讓我們在考慮全年前景和我們實現這一目標的能力時更有信心。就你的觀點而言，我們開始的時間有點早，但我們確實希望利用我們認為我們的股票估值具有吸引力這一事實，我們覺得我們有一個很好的機會重返市場，並且做得更多隨著我們前進，與我們的回購活動一致。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes from Truist Securities.

你的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。

The renters insurance business you're in, number of renters has held up pretty well, but your revenue has dipped a little bit. Is that a mix shift? Could you give a little detail on that?

你所從事的租房保險業務，租房人數一直保持良好，但你的收入略有下降。那是混班嗎？你能詳細說明一下嗎？

Yes, sure. I would say a couple of things to unpack with renters. Broadly, our policy counts to your point, are pretty steady over the last year we're seeing average premium per policy, pretty steady, and really growth in the PMC channel, we're seeing double-digit revenue growth in our PMC channel, offset by some softness on the affinity side.

是的，當然。我會說幾件事來與租房者一起解壓。從廣義上講，我們的保單對你來說很重要，在過去的一年裡我們看到每份保單的平均保費非常穩定，而且 PMC 渠道確實在增長，我們看到 PMC 渠道的收入增長了兩位數，被親和力方面的一些柔軟度所抵消。

When you do look at the revenue for the first quarter, a couple of things I would point out. First of all, we did have an adjustment that flowed through the premium line. If I back that out, our revenue would be roughly flat in the quarter. So I think if you take something away from renters, pretty stable, consistent performance underlying revenue pretty constant compared to Q4 compared to first quarter last year. We think there's an opportunity to drive long-term growth within this business.

當您查看第一季度的收入時，我會指出幾件事。首先，我們確實對保費線進行了調整。如果我支持這一點，我們本季度的收入將大致持平。所以我認為，如果你從租房者那裡拿走一些東西，與去年第一季度相比，與第四季度相比，基礎收入相當穩定、一致的表現相當穩定。我們認為有機會推動該業務的長期增長。

The second thing, we did see some favorability in the quarter from NFIP, where we're getting paid to administer claims on behalf of the U.S. government. That does not flow through the revenue line. It flows through as a ceding fee that we receive and effectively a contra commission.

第二件事，我們確實在本季度看到了 NFIP 的一些優勢，我們在代表美國政府管理索賠方面獲得報酬。這不會流經收入線。它作為我們收到的分讓費流過，實際上是對沖佣金。

So the real headline from my perspective around renters is well-positioned, steady results. The loss ratios are certainly normalizing in line with what we saw in the second half and still believe we have good long-term opportunity to grow that business.

因此，從我的角度來看，圍繞租房者的真正頭條新聞是定位良好、穩定的結果。損失率肯定正在正常化，與我們在下半年看到的情況一致，並且仍然相信我們有良好的長期機會來發展該業務。

Then on the Connected Living, what's your assessment of the amount of marketing or advertising that's going on around 5G programs kind of feeding into your mobile device count, maybe feeding into your fee income driven by the upgrade and logistical operations. Are you still seeing the same tempo? How do you see that play out over the coming years?

然後在互聯生活方面，您對圍繞 5G 計劃進行的營銷或廣告數量的評估如何，這些營銷或廣告會影響您的移動設備數量，可能會影響您由升級和物流運營驅動的費用收入。你還看到同樣的節奏嗎？您如何看待未來幾年的發展？

Yes. So we certainly had a pretty high watermark in 2022 with respect to trading activity, to your point, a lot of advertising around 5G. We saw pretty consistent volumes in the first quarter so if you strip out the impact of service and repair within that device to service line, trade-in volumes are pretty constant in Q1 versus Q1 last year. We did see a little bit of margin pressure around the mix, the mix of services we provided, the clients that have flowed through. But pretty steady from that perspective, I'd say it's still an important part of the ecosystem. Clients use it as an important tool to attract customers and the marketing tends to ebb and flow and very much driven by the competitive state, particularly within the domestic mobile business.

是的。因此，就您的觀點而言，我們在 2022 年的交易活動中肯定有一個相當高的水印，圍繞 5G 進行了大量廣告。我們在第一季度看到了相當穩定的交易量，因此如果你剔除該設備內的服務和維修對服務線的影響，與去年第一季度相比，第一季度的以舊換新交易量相當穩定。我們確實看到了圍繞組合、我們提供的服務組合、流經的客戶的一些利潤壓力。但從這個角度來看相當穩定，我想說它仍然是生態系統的重要組成部分。客戶將其用作吸引客戶的重要工具，營銷往往起伏不定，並且在很大程度上受到競爭狀態的驅動，尤其是在國內移動業務中。

The second thing I would highlight is just the strength of our device protection business, in particular in the U.S. If you look at our top clients, and we operate with obviously one of the major mobile operators, two major cable operators picked up 84% of all net adds for postpaid customers in Q1. So our clients are growing. We're obviously participating in that growth, and that will afford us opportunity to do more services and add more value over time.

我要強調的第二件事是我們的設備保護業務的實力，特別是在美國。如果你看看我們的頂級客戶，我們顯然與主要的移動運營商之一合作，兩家主要的有線電視運營商獲得了 84% 的份額第一季度後付費客戶的所有淨增加。所以我們的客戶在增長。我們顯然正在參與這種增長，這將使我們有機會提供更多服務並隨著時間的推移增加更多價值。

Your next question is coming from John Barnidge, Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自約翰·巴尼奇 (John Barnidge)、派珀·桑德勒 (Piper Sandler)。

If we could stick with the auto business. I know there's an ability to recoup part of the deficit, but it can take a number of quarters to do so, if I'm understanding that correctly. How large is the deficit? And how much of that will -- recruitment will leak into '24?

如果我們能堅持汽車業務。我知道有能力彌補部分赤字，但如果我理解正確的話，可能需要幾個季度才能完成。赤字有多大？其中有多少——招聘會滲入 24 年？

Yes. The deficit isn't that large. We're obviously taking action and have been taking action now for a couple of quarters to make sure that we're on the right side of that as we move forward. As I said, I think we'll see a little bit of pressure over the next 3 or 4 quarters, offset by the strong growth in the investment income. I definitely expect to see some of that recovery coming through in '24. And to your point, if I think about where we've seen some pressure in a good amount of the cases, we're actually going to recover that deficit on an inception-to-date basis.

是的。赤字並沒有那麼大。我們顯然正在採取行動，並且已經採取了幾個季度的行動，以確保我們在前進的過程中站在正確的一邊。正如我所說，我認為我們會在接下來的 3 或 4 個季度看到一些壓力，但會被投資收入的強勁增長所抵消。我絕對希望在 24 年看到一些復甦。就你的觀點而言，如果我考慮一下我們在大量案例中看到的一些壓力，我們實際上將在開始至今的基礎上彌補這一赤字。

Where in another cases, we'll achieve target loss ratios on new business. We may not get historical losses back. But there is an ability to actually recover historical losses, to your point and recapture deficits. So feel really good about how we're positioned in auto.

在其他情況下，我們將實現新業務的目標損失率。我們可能無法挽回曆史損失。但實際上有能力恢復歷史損失，達到你的觀點並重新奪回赤字。所以對我們在汽車領域的定位感到非常滿意。

We work closely with our clients on pricing. We don't require regulatory approvals to make pricing changes. So it's really just working in partnership with our clients to do that. We've been dealing with this for 20-plus years as an organization, and we're very good at trying to find creative solutions with our clients to normalize results over time.

我們在定價方面與客戶密切合作。我們不需要監管部門的批准即可更改價格。所以它真的只是與我們的客戶合作來做到這一點。作為一個組織，我們已經處理這個問題 20 多年了，我們非常擅長與客戶一起尋找創造性的解決方案，以隨著時間的推移使結果正常化。

And I would just add too, John. I mean, the other side of that, as Keith mentioned earlier in the remarks is that we are getting investment income. So what we're seeing on the claims cost rising in auto and extended service contracts is just part of the inflationary environment, prices going up, but also interest rates have come up, which is part of what you're seeing in the investment income increase during the quarter.

我還要補充一點，約翰。我的意思是，另一方面，正如基思在前面的評論中提到的那樣，我們正在獲得投資收益。因此，我們所看到的汽車和延期服務合同的索賠成本上升只是通貨膨脹環境的一部分，價格上漲，而且利率也上升了，這是您在投資收益中看到的一部分本季度增加。

Appreciate that color. And then on pricing increases, I'd imagine another round for inflation guard will be coming in July. Am I correct in thinking it won't be nearly the same degree as a year ago, but should benefit the overall premium profile?

欣賞那種顏色。然後在價格上漲方面，我想 7 月份將出現另一輪通脹保護措施。我是否認為它不會與一年前的程度幾乎相同，但應該有利於整體保費狀況？

Yes, that's right. And if we look at the core logic industry factor for inflation around housing, materials and labor. And if you look at where it was April 1 last year, it was 16%. If you look at that this year, it's just a little over 3%. So a much more modest adjustment to average insured values, which obviously, it'll have less of an impact on rate, but I think it's more positive in terms of the health of the broader market. Seeing inflation rates normalize is very important for the performance of the business and obviously trying to keep premiums manageable from a consumer perspective. So I actually feel really good about what we're seeing from core logic. It matches up closely with a lot of the data that we look at within our business. So feel good about how we're positioned there.

恩，那就對了。如果我們看看圍繞住房、材料和勞動力的通貨膨脹的核心邏輯行業因素。如果你看看去年 4 月 1 日的情況，它是 16%。如果你看看今年的數據，它只略高於 3%。因此，對平均保險價值進行更適度的調整，顯然，它對利率的影響較小，但我認為它對更廣泛市場的健康狀況更為積極。看到通貨膨脹率正常化對於企業的業績非常重要，並且顯然試圖從消費者的角度保持保費可控。所以我實際上對我們從核心邏輯中看到的東西感覺很好。它與我們在業務中查看的許多數據密切相關。所以對我們在那裡的定位感到滿意。

And just the other thing to add to that, John, and I'm sure you're probably aware of it, but the 16% last year that takes a number of months to roll through as the policies renew themselves and new policies come in and so forth. So that does take some time, just as when the 3% comes in, the first policies come in July when they renew that increase will come into place. So it's a little bit averaging as we get through the course of the year.

還有一點要補充的是，約翰，我相信你可能已經意識到了這一點，但是隨著政策的更新和新政策的出台，去年 16% 需要幾個月的時間才能完成等等。所以這確實需要一些時間，就像 3% 出現時一樣，第一批政策會在 7 月份出台，屆時他們會更新這一增長。因此，隨著我們度過這一年的過程，這有點平均。

Yes, it's a great point. We haven't fully written in the 16% [AIVs], that will fully right in through June, and then it will take 12 months from there to fully earn through the book. So you're still going to feel significant rate and premium growth acceleration over the course of this year, regardless of what factor goes in, in July.

是的，這是一個很好的觀點。我們還沒有完全寫入 16% [AIVs]，這將在 6 月份完全寫入，然後需要 12 個月的時間才能完全通過這本書獲得收益。因此，無論在 7 月份出現什麼因素，你仍然會在今年的過程中感受到顯著的利率和保費增長加速。

Next question is coming from Grace Carter, Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Grace Carter。

So I was wondering, just given that you said that the first quarter came in above expectations, but guidance remains flat I know you all called out some seasonality in housing losses in the second quarter and obviously, inflationary pressure on claims cost across the book. But are there any sort of timing items or one-off favorable items in the first quarter that we need to consider when I'm trying to square the first quarter performance versus the full year guidance?

所以我想知道，鑑於你說第一季度超出預期，但指引仍然持平，我知道你們都提到了第二季度住房損失的一些季節性，顯然，通貨膨脹對索賠成本的壓力。但是，當我試圖將第一季度業績與全年指導相比較時，我們需要考慮第一季度的任何時間項目或一次性有利項目嗎？

You want to start on that, Richard?

你想開始嗎，理查德？

Yes. No, I think your question was well-phrased. I think we do see, as the year goes on, we can see some seasonality in claims and typically, Q1 is a little bit lower. We'll see what happens. Obviously, there's inflation that's coming down. So that can help the claims cost due. We had some good investment income that depends what happens with interest rates as the year goes on. We did not have any real estate sales or gains in the numbers. So there's no one-offs in that area as well. We have some good PIF counts in housing, policies in force. And we do -- we did mention that we see a client rolling off as the year goes down -- a year goes on, that might temper the overall increase in policies in force. So I would say more business than usual, nothing big in the first quarter to call out, Grace.

是的。不，我認為你的問題措辭得當。我認為我們確實看到，隨著時間的推移，我們可以看到索賠有一些季節性，而且通常情況下，第一季度會略低一些。我們將看看會發生什麼。顯然，通貨膨脹正在下降。這樣可以幫助理賠到期費用。我們有一些不錯的投資收入，這取決於隨著時間的推移利率會發生什麼變化。我們沒有任何房地產銷售或收益的數字。所以在那個領域也沒有一次性的。我們在住房和現行政策方面有一些不錯的 PIF 計數。我們確實 - 我們確實提到我們看到客戶隨著時間的推移而減少 - 一年過去了，這可能會緩和有效政策的整體增長。所以我會說比平時更多的業務，第一季度沒什麼大不了的，格蕾絲。

And I think you had previously mentioned the hard market in certain states, including Florida, as driving some of the growth in the housing book. Is there any impact that you'll expect from the recent reforms in Florida on growth levels going forward or more on margins?

而且我認為您之前曾提到某些州（包括佛羅里達州）的硬市場推動了住房賬簿的一些增長。您預計佛羅里達州最近的改革對未來的增長水平或利潤率有什麼影響嗎？

Maybe I'll start on that, Richard, and certainly, you can add in. I'd say it's really early in terms of the Florida reforms. I think long term, it's going to be really important for that market to improve the competitiveness and improve pricing for consumers without question. So -- and we are starting to see lower AOBs coming through. So that will take time to work through, and we'll see how that emerges. But I do feel good about how that's positioned for the future.

也許我會開始，理查德，當然，你可以補充。我想說就佛羅里達州的改革而言，這真的很早。我認為從長遠來看，毫無疑問，提高競爭力和改善消費者定價對於該市場來說非常重要。所以——我們開始看到較低的 AOB 正在通過。所以這需要時間來解決，我們將看看它是如何出現的。但我確實對未來的定位感到滿意。

In terms of the hard market, I would say we certainly saw PIF count grow in Florida last year. So we had about 14,000 new policies over the course of the year because I would say largely the hard market, some of it from new clients, but a good amount from the hard market. We actually saw that begin to reverse a little bit, Grace in the first quarter. So our PIF count in Florida actually went down a little bit. And I think that's a sign of potentially more competitiveness into the marketplace. So we won't be monitoring that, but we're not expecting Florida to be a big driver of PIF from the hard market as we look forward in the rest of the year.

就硬市場而言，我想說我們去年在佛羅里達州確實看到了 PIF 數量的增長。所以我們在這一年中有大約 14,000 個新政策，因為我會說主要是硬市場，其中一些來自新客戶，但有很多來自硬市場。我們實際上看到，第一季度的 Grace 開始有所逆轉。所以我們在佛羅里達州的 PIF 計數實際上下降了一點。我認為這是進入市場可能更具競爭力的跡象。因此，我們不會對其進行監控，但我們預計今年餘下時間佛羅里達州不會成為硬市場 PIF 的主要推動力。

(Operator Instructions) Next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS.

（操作員說明）下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

So a couple of questions here for you. The first one, you kind of described Japan starting to get a little bit better, Europe start to get a little bit better. When do you think we could start to see some year-over-year growth in global covered mobile devices in Connected Living?

所以這裡有幾個問題要問你。第一個，你有點描述日本開始好一點，歐洲開始好一點。您認為我們什麼時候可以開始看到全球覆蓋的互聯生活移動設備出現同比增長？

Yes, it's a great question. So let me just address Europe quickly, and then I'll talk about Japan. So I'm really pleased with the progress that our team has made in Europe, and we had a pretty significant turnaround in the first quarter. A tough second half of last year without question, but significantly improved results in the first quarter and a lot of that was due to the expense actions that our team took in the back half of 2022. So I think we're well-positioned there and expect strong stable results in Europe over the course of the year.

是的，這是一個很好的問題。因此，讓我快速談談歐洲，然後我將談談日本。因此，我對我們的團隊在歐洲取得的進展感到非常滿意，我們在第一季度取得了非常顯著的轉變。毫無疑問，去年下半年很艱難，但第一季度的業績有了顯著改善，其中很大一部分是由於我們的團隊在 2022 年下半年採取的開支行動。所以我認為我們在這方面處於有利地位並預計今年在歐洲取得強勁穩定的業績。

And I'd say Japan, that's been the market where we've seen some subscriber declines. Everywhere else has been relatively stable. The U.S. historically has been growing for us. So that -- I expect that will continue. And I'd say in Japan, a couple of things that are really important. Number one, it's a really important market for the mobile business. I think we're incredibly well-positioned and we've made a lot of progress in that market. And that's progress around investing in local talent, capabilities, technology. We actually now have relationships with all 4 carriers in the Japanese market. So that creates interesting opportunities to innovate and drive growth. The subs are definitely down quarter-over-quarter.

我會說日本，這是我們看到一些訂戶下降的市場。其他地方都相對穩定。從歷史上看，美國一直在為我們成長。所以——我希望這種情況會繼續下去。我想說在日本，有幾件事非常重要。第一，它是移動業務非常重要的市場。我認為我們處於非常有利的位置，並且我們在該市場取得了很大進展。這是圍繞投資本地人才、能力和技術取得的進展。實際上，我們現在與日本市場上的所有 4 家運營商都建立了關係。因此，這為創新和推動增長創造了有趣的機會。潛艇肯定環比下降。

And I would point to two things and give you a little bit more color on that. One, we see slightly lower attach rates more recently. And that's mainly because customers have migrated to more affordable devices. Because of foreign exchange, devices became more expensive last fall, and we've seen a little bit lower attach on less expensive devices in older models, but nothing of concern.

我會指出兩件事，並給你更多的顏色。第一，我們最近看到附加率略有下降。這主要是因為客戶已遷移到更實惠的設備。由於外匯，設備在去年秋天變得更加昂貴，而且我們已經看到舊型號中較便宜的設備的附加值略低，但無需擔心。

And then the second thing, which is actually the bigger driver, when we launched in Japan in 2018 with our initial device protection product, it had a 4-year term. So a monthly pay product for 4 years as opposed to an evergreen structure. And that was appropriate at the time of the Japanese market. After a couple of years, we actually moved to an Evergreen product, what you're seeing in Japan is some of that transition rolling through where some of those 4-year contracts are hitting their end date and the cancellation rate plus those contracts ending is a higher number than the new adds that we're putting on the book.

然後第二件事，實際上是更大的驅動因素，當我們於 2018 年在日本推出我們最初的設備保護產品時，它有 4 年的期限。因此，與常綠結構相反，4 年的月付產品。這在當時的日本市場是合適的。幾年後，我們實際上轉向了 Evergreen 產品，你在日本看到的是一些過渡，其中一些 4 年期合同即將到期，取消率加上那些合同結束是比我們在書中添加的新內容要多。

I would say, before the end of this year, that will be fully gone and then we'll be positioned in Japan for growth going forward. And to my earlier point, we expect to continue to grow U.S. mobile as we have for many years.

我會說，在今年年底之前，這將完全消失，然後我們將在日本定位，以實現未來的增長。就我之前的觀點而言，我們希望像多年來一樣繼續發展美國移動業務。

And I would just add to -- Yes, I'd just say, Brian, in addition to the sub count, we've always talked about adding services to clients. So you have the sub count and then you have what's the services inside that. So as we go on, we continue to innovate the products and innovate the services going into the client to provide us more revenue per client, I would say, as well.

我只想補充——是的，我只想說，布賴恩，除了子計數之外，我們一直在談論向客戶添加服務。所以你有子計數，然後你有里面的服務。因此，在我們繼續前進的過程中，我們將繼續創新產品並創新進入客戶的服務，以便為我們每個客戶提供更多收入，我會說，也是。

Got you. That's helpful. And then my second question, I'm just curious, going to capital management. I appreciate probably starting to buy back a little more stock at the end of the second quarter. But given the cash flow you're expecting and given the excess capital already at the holding company, why modest, right? I mean I understand there's a little macro uncertainty, but you've got a pretty conservative investment portfolio, as you pointed out, cash flows look like they're pretty strong. Why wouldn't you take advantage of the really inexpensive valuation, your stock more aggressively at this point?

明白了這很有幫助。然後我的第二個問題，我只是好奇，去資本管理。我很欣賞可能在第二季度末開始回購更多的股票。但考慮到您預期的現金流和控股公司已有的過剩資本，為什麼要適度，對嗎？我的意思是我知道存在一些宏觀不確定性，但是正如您所指出的那樣，您的投資組合非常保守，現金流看起來非常強勁。你為什麼不利用真正便宜的估值，在這一點上更積極地利用你的股票？

Yes. And I think it's as simple as we're just trying to be prudent. We're very disciplined as a company with the way we think about capital management and we're trying to get more information just in terms of how the macro picture is going to play out. Interest rates, whether there's going to be a recession, if so, when does that start to kick in? So I just think we're trying to be prudent with our thinking on that and certainly expect as we get more information to be able to deploy more capital.

是的。我認為這很簡單，因為我們只是想保持謹慎。作為一家考慮資本管理方式的公司，我們非常自律，我們正努力獲取更多有關宏觀形勢將如何發展的信息。利率，是否會出現衰退，如果會，什麼時候開始出現？所以我只是認為我們正在努力謹慎地考慮這一點，並且當然希望隨著我們獲得更多信息能夠部署更多資金。

But Richard, feel free to add anything else.

但是理查德，請隨意添加任何其他內容。

Does your outlook yet, also can add does your outlook contemplate a recession?

你的前景還好嗎，你的前景是否考慮到經濟衰退？

When we look at the outlook, we do take into account, for example, more I would say, a decrease in inflation as the year goes on. We don't take into account when we're projecting that there's any sort of hard landing of things. So -- we do take into account, for example, when Keith was talking about in the conversation we had on claims service, the service charges, the claims cost going up. We do take into account that, that could continue to go up during the year when we reinforce our outlook for the quarter.

當我們審視前景時，我們確實考慮到了，例如，我想說的更多的是，隨著時間的推移，通貨膨脹率會下降。當我們預測會有任何形式的硬著陸時，我們不會考慮在內。所以 - 我們確實考慮到了，例如，當基思在我們關於索賠服務的對話中談論時，服務費，索賠成本上升。我們確實考慮到這一點，當我們加強對本季度的展望時，這一數字可能會在年內繼續上升。

In terms of capital, really what Keith was saying is right on, is that we're just trying to be prudent. When you look at the macroeconomic environment today and you look at the shaky what's going on in some of the inflation aspects and the Fed increasing rates and the banking industry and things going on just generally, I think we're trying to be prudent and just be cautious about the steps we take. I agree with you. We have a -- we're in a strong financial position. We've got a strong balance sheet. We've got a conservative investment portfolio. There's nothing today that we're sitting on looking at our investment portfolio that we're worried about, although we are keeping an eye on everything so to speak. So it's really from just being prudent to see how things play out over the next couple of months. But we do see us increasing the share buybacks toward the end of the year if things play out okay on the number of things we just talked about.

就資本而言，基思所說的真的是正確的，我們只是想保持謹慎。當你看看今天的宏觀經濟環境，看看一些通脹方面的不穩定情況，美聯儲加息和銀行業以及一般情況下發生的事情時，我認為我們正在努力保持謹慎和公正對我們採取的步驟保持謹慎。我同意你的看法。我們有一個 - 我們處於強大的財務狀況。我們有一個強大的資產負債表。我們有一個保守的投資組合。今天我們沒有什麼可以坐視我們擔心的投資組合，儘管我們可以說一直在關註一切。所以這真的只是謹慎地觀察未來幾個月的情況。但我們確實看到，如果我們剛剛談到的事情進展順利，我們會在年底前增加股票回購。

Yes. And maybe just a little bit more color on the recession question and how we think about that. We're certainly updating our views for the full year to take into account all of the trends that we're seeing within each of our lines of business. So there's no doubt that we're paying close attention and modifying as appropriate there. I'm not having a crystal ball, but certainly, we can see some of those trends emerging.

是的。也許只是對經濟衰退問題以及我們對此的看法有更多的色彩。我們肯定會更新我們對全年的看法，以考慮到我們在每個業務線中看到的所有趨勢。所以毫無疑問，我們正在密切關注並在那裡進行適當的修改。我沒有水晶球，但可以肯定的是，我們可以看到其中一些趨勢正在出現。

I would say a couple of things, though. Number one, we haven't assumed any change in placement rate related to a recession. So we haven't banked on the idea that if the economy gets tougher, we will see placement rates evolve over time. So that we've kept relatively static, and we'll see how that emerges. And then I'd just remind you on the Lifestyle business, A lot of our mobile economics are driven by the in-force subscribers that we have, which is $62 million monthly pay recurring. We don't expect that to move around a lot certainly in 2023, regardless of recessionary impacts or consumer demand because that's an in-force block of recurring revenue. And then on the auto side, we're sitting on over $10.5 billion of unearned premium reserves that are going to roll through.

不過，我會說幾件事。第一，我們沒有假設與經濟衰退相關的安置率有任何變化。因此，我們沒有寄希望於這樣的想法，即如果經濟變得更加艱難，我們將看到安置率隨著時間的推移而變化。所以我們一直保持相對靜態，我們將看到它是如何出現的。然後我想提醒你關於生活方式業務，我們的很多移動經濟都是由我們擁有的有效用戶驅動的，這是每月 6200 萬美元的經常性工資。我們預計到 2023 年，無論經濟衰退影響或消費者需求如何，這種情況都不會發生太大變化，因為這是經常性收入的有效塊。然後在汽車方面，我們坐擁超過 105 億美元的未到期保費準備金。

The bulk of the earnings this year are on business that's already been written. So from that perspective, in '23, we feel really good about projecting forward. And to Richard's point, really watching closely inflationary trends, good and bad, right? Inflationary maybe upside if housing continues to perform well and then obviously, some pressure on auto and ESC and keeping a close eye on those 2 things.

今年的大部分收益來自已經寫入的業務。因此，從這個角度來看，在 23 年，我們對向前發展感覺非常好。就理查德的觀點而言，真正密切關注通脹趨勢，無論好壞，對吧？如果住房繼續表現良好，那麼通貨膨脹可能會上升，然後顯然，汽車和 ESC 會面臨一些壓力，並密切關注這兩件事。

And that concludes our Q&A. I'd like to hand back over to Keith and Richard for closing remarks.

我們的問答到此結束。我想把結束語交還給基思和理查德。

Well, great. Just quickly, thanks, everyone. Appreciate your time, as always. We're pleased with the quarter and the strong start we've had to the year and obviously very focused on delivering on all of our commitments for '23. We'll look forward to reconnecting again for our second quarter call in August. And in the meantime, please reach out to Sean and Suzanne, if you have any other questions. And thanks, everybody. Have a great day.

好吧，太好了。快點，謝謝大家。珍惜你的時間，一如既往。我們對本季度和今年的強勁開局感到滿意，並且顯然非常專注於兌現我們對 23 年的所有承諾。我們期待在 8 月份的第二季度電話會議上再次聯繫。同時，如果您有任何其他問題，請聯繫 Sean 和 Suzanne。謝謝大家。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. This does conclude today's Quarter (inaudible) conference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。這確實結束了今天的季度（聽不清）會議。此時請斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。