Assurant Inc (AIZ) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Assurant's Second Quarter 2023 Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 Assurant 2023 年第二季度電話會議和網絡廣播。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Suzanne Shepherd, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability. You may begin.

現在我很高興將發言權交給投資者關係和可持續發展高級副總裁 Suzanne Shepherd。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our second quarter 2023 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant's conference call are Keith Demmings, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Richard Dziadzio, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家早上好。我們期待今天與您討論 2023 年第二季度的業績。與我一起參加 Assurant 電話會議的是我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Keith Demmings；和我們的首席財務官 Richard Dziadzio。

Yesterday, after the market closed, we issued a news release announcing our results for the second quarter of 2023. The release and corresponding financial supplement are available on assurant.com. We'll start today's call with remarks from Keith and Richard before moving into a Q&A session.

昨天收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿，公佈了 2023 年第二季度的業績。該新聞稿和相應的財務補充資料可在 assurant.com 上獲取。我們將以基思和理查德的講話開始今天的電話會議，然後進入問答環節。

Some of the statements made today are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements are based upon our historical performance and current expectations and subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements.

今天發表的一些聲明具有前瞻性。前瞻性陳述基於我們的歷史業績和當前預期，並受到風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響，這些因素可能導致實際結果與這些陳述預期的結果存在重大差異。

Additional information regarding these factors can be found in yesterday's earnings release and financial supplement as well as in our SEC reports. During today's call, we will refer to our non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance. For more details on these measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the 2, please refer to yesterday's news release and financial supplement.

有關這些因素的更多信息可以在昨天的收益發布和財務補充以及我們的 SEC 報告中找到。在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考我們的非公認會計準則財務指標，我們認為這些指標對於評估公司業績非常重要。有關這些措施、最具可比性的公認會計原則措施以及兩者的調節的更多詳細信息，請參閱昨天的新聞稿和財務補充。

I will now turn the call over to Keith.

我現在將把電話轉給基思。

Thanks, Suzanne, and good morning, everyone. Our results in the second quarter were strong and well ahead of our expectations with adjusted EBITDA, excluding cats, growing 21% year-over-year or a total of 6% on a year-to-date basis. Results were largely driven by continued momentum in Global Housing, primarily from higher top line growth and more favorable loss experience from prior period development on claims. Our performance is a testament to the resilience of our global business model, our compelling client offerings and steadfast focus on operational excellence.

謝謝，蘇珊娜，大家早上好。我們第二季度的業績強勁，遠遠超出了我們的預期，調整後的 EBITDA（不包括貓）同比增長 21%，年初至今總計增長 6%。業績在很大程度上受到全球住房市場持續增長勢頭的推動，主要來自更高的收入增長和前期索賠發展帶來的更有利的損失經驗。我們的業績證明了我們全球業務模式的彈性、我們引人注目的客戶服務以及對卓越運營的堅定關注。

Looking at our business segments. Global Housing adjusted EBITDA increased 49% year-to-date, excluding catastrophes. These results reflect actions taken to transform our Housing business, including focusing on product lines where we have a strong right to win, dramatically reducing noncore areas and our international catastrophe exposure and aggressively deploying digital solutions to improve customer experience while driving greater operational efficiencies. This underscores our ability to quickly respond to ever-evolving market dynamics driving continuous improvement and better performance over time.

看看我們的業務部門。扣除災難因素後，全球住房調整後 EBITDA 年初至今增長了 49%。這些結果反映了我們為改變我們的住房業務而採取的行動，包括專注於我們有強大獲勝權利的產品線，大幅減少非核心領域和我們的國際災難風險，並積極部署數字解決方案以改善客戶體驗，同時提高運營效率。這強調了我們快速響應不斷變化的市場動態的能力，從而隨著時間的推移推動持續改進和更好的績效。

During the first half of 2023, top line performance in our Homeowners business increased 18% year-over-year. This reflects higher average insured values and state-approved rate increases to account for higher claim severities from inflationary factors in lender-placed. Policy counts increased double digits this year from expanded loan portfolios of new and existing clients. While policy growth has been a contributor so far this year, we expect to level off from the first half of the year.

2023 年上半年，我們的房主業務營收同比增長 18%。這反映了較高的平均保險價值和國家批准的利率上調，以解決貸款人因通貨膨脹因素而導致的更高的索賠嚴重程度。由於新老客戶貸款組合的擴大，今年的保單數量增加了兩位數。儘管今年迄今為止政策增長一直是推動因素，但我們預計今年上半年將趨於平穩。

In our Renters business, our property management company distribution channel has shown strong policy growth year-to-date, increasing 14%. This has been driven by the ongoing rollout of our Cover360 solution, one of the many long-term investments we've made in renters that has consistently added value to our PMC partners and customers over the last several years. Our strong growth within the PMC channel has helped to diversify profit pools to partially offset lower contributions from our affinity partners, along with higher non-cat losses, which have returned to more normalized levels.

在我們的租戶業務中，我們的物業管理公司分銷渠道今年迄今表現出強勁的政策增長，增長了 14%。這是由我們不斷推出的 Cover360 解決方案推動的，這是我們對租戶進行的眾多長期投資之一，在過去幾年中不斷為我們的 PMC 合作夥伴和客戶增加價值。我們在 PMC 渠道內的強勁增長有助於實現利潤池多元化，部分抵消了我們的親和合作夥伴貢獻的減少以及非巨災損失的增加，這些損失已恢復到更正常的水平。

In summary, we're very pleased with Global Housing's performance year-to-date and expect strong year-over-year earnings growth to continue into the second half of 2023.

總之，我們對 Global Housing 年初至今的表現非常滿意，並預計強勁的同比盈利增長將持續到 2023 年下半年。

Turning to Global Lifestyle. Underlying segment results were solid and demonstrated steady improvement from the second half of last year. Lifestyle earnings for the first 6 months of the year have increased $34 million or 9% over the second half of last year, from improved Connected Living results. Within Connected Living, we continue to invest in our technology platforms as we deepen our focus on product innovation and evolving our service delivery capabilities to improve customer experience. Our focus on innovation and global trade-in capabilities has continued to drive a significant level of interest from existing and prospective mobile partners. As we continue to realize ongoing efficiencies, we've implemented [expense] actions to mitigate macroeconomic headwinds throughout our global operations.

轉向全球生活方式。基礎部門業績穩健，較去年下半年穩步改善。由於互聯生活業績的改善，今年前 6 個月的生活方式收入比去年下半年增加了 3,400 萬美元，即 9%。在互聯生活領域，我們繼續投資於我們的技術平台，加深對產品創新的關注，並不斷發展我們的服務交付能力，以改善客戶體驗。我們對創新和全球以舊換新能力的關注繼續引起現有和潛在移動合作夥伴的極大興趣。隨著我們不斷提高效率，我們實施了[費用]行動，以減輕我們全球業務中的宏觀經濟阻力。

In Europe, these actions have had a positive impact, ultimately helping to stabilize earnings and allowing us to remain focused on growing the top line. Within extended service contracts, we've made significant progress with our partners in executing large-scale protection and administration programs. In addition, after several quarters of elevated claim severity, we've seen an improvement in the second quarter loss ratio due to rate increases with several clients.

在歐洲，這些行動產生了積極影響，最終有助於穩定收益，並使我們能夠繼續專注於增加收入。在擴展服務合同中，我們與合作夥伴在執行大規模保護和管理計劃方面取得了重大進展。此外，經過幾個季度索賠嚴重程度的提高，我們發現由於多個客戶的費率上漲，第二季度的損失率有所改善。

In our Global Auto business, consistent across the industry, our repair costs have continued to increase from inflation. We've taken decisive actions to improve performance. For example, we've implemented prospective rate increases with several key clients, and we're also partnering with our clients to identify cost savings on claims to improve loss experience for programs where we hold the risk. It's difficult to predict the timing of an earnings inflection point, but we expect to see continued improvements as new business earned through although improvement may take several quarters to materialize.

在我們的全球汽車業務中，與整個行業一致的是，我們的維修成本因通貨膨脹而持續增加。我們已採取果斷行動來提高績效。例如，我們已經與幾個關鍵客戶實施了預期費率上調，並且我們還與客戶合作，確定索賠成本節約，以改善我們承擔風險的項目的損失體驗。很難預測盈利拐點的時間，但我們預計隨著新業務的增加，盈利將持續改善，儘管改善可能需要幾個季度才能實現。

Overall, Global Lifestyle earnings were in line with our expectations for the first half of 2023. And while we work to create new vectors of growth for Lifestyle, we now anticipate Global Lifestyle's adjusted EBITDA will be down modestly for the full year. This is mainly due to the headwinds in Global Auto we just discussed and lower international contributions primarily from Japan.

總體而言，環球生活的盈利符合我們對 2023 年上半年的預期。雖然我們努力為生活創造新的增長載體，但我們現在預計環球生活的調整後 EBITDA 將在全年小幅下降。這主要是由於我們剛剛討論的全球汽車行業的不利因素以及主要來自日本的國際貢獻減少。

Reflecting on the first half of 2023, our results have demonstrated the attractiveness of our compelling business model with clear competitive advantages, including alignment with global market leaders across lines of business, leadership positions with scale advantages in attractive and growing lifestyle and housing markets, demonstrated ability to innovate and differentiate through specialized solutions and a strong track record of taking decisive actions to overcome market challenges and drive performance. Combined, Global Lifestyle and Global Housing should continue to generate strong returns and cash flow, highlighting the strength and resiliency of Assurant.

回顧2023 年上半年，我們的業績證明了我們引人注目的商業模式的吸引力，具有明顯的競爭優勢，包括與跨業務線的全球市場領導者保持一致，在有吸引力且不斷增長的生活方式和住房市場中具有規模優勢的領導地位，證明了通過專業解決方案進行創新和差異化的能力，以及採取果斷行動克服市場挑戰和提高業績的良好記錄。全球生活方式和全球住房業務相結合，應會繼續產生強勁的回報和現金流，突顯安信龍的實力和彈性。

Prior to moving to our enterprise outlook and results, I want to take a moment to discuss the progress we've made through our sustainability efforts, a key differentiator for Assurant. In June, we published our 2023 sustainability report, reaffirming our long-term priorities around talent, products and climate. The report highlights our progress in reinforcing our company culture and leveraging ongoing employee listening and feedback to help support our global diverse workforce. The report reaffirms our 2020 to 2025 ESG strategic focus areas of talent, products and climate to build a more sustainable future together with our clients, customers, employees and suppliers. We continue to view our commitment to sustainability as a competitive advantage that delivers short and long-term business value. Of note, we achieved our 2025 supplier diversity target 2 years ahead of schedule. We increased our global gender diversity overall; we expanded coverage for electric vehicle protection products and we repurposed 22 million mobile devices globally.

在談到我們的企業前景和成果之前，我想花點時間討論一下我們通過可持續發展努力所取得的進展，這是 Assurant 的一個關鍵差異化因素。 6 月，我們發布了 2023 年可持續發展報告，重申了我們圍繞人才、產品和氣候的長期優先事項。該報告強調了我們在強化公司文化以及利用持續的員工傾聽和反饋來幫助支持我們全球多元化員工隊伍方面取得的進展。該報告重申了我們 2020 年至 2025 年 ESG 戰略重點領域：人才、產品和氣候，與我們的客戶、顧客、員工和供應商共同建設更加可持續的未來。我們繼續將我們對可持續發展的承諾視為一種競爭優勢，可以帶來短期和長期的商業價值。值得注意的是，我們提前 2 年實現了 2025 年供應商多元化目標。我們總體上提高了全球性別多樣性；我們擴大了電動汽車保護產品的覆蓋範圍，並重新調整了全球 2200 萬台移動設備的用途。

Now let's turn to our enterprise outlook and capital. Given first half results and anticipated performance for the remainder of the year, we now expect adjusted EBITDA to grow high single digits, excluding cats. This represents an increase from our original expectation of low single-digit growth. Adjusted EPS growth is now expected to approximate adjusted EBITDA growth, each excluding reportable catastrophes, an improvement over our previous expectations for EPS growth to trail our EBITDA growth. The increase is mainly due to our higher-than-expected adjusted EBITDA growth, which is now outpacing the increases to depreciation and tax expenses.

現在我們來談談我們的企業觀和資本。鑑於上半年業績和今年剩餘時間的預期表現，我們現在預計調整後的 EBITDA 將增長高個位數（不包括貓）。這比我們最初預期的低個位數增長有所增加。調整後的每股收益增長預計將接近調整後的 EBITDA 增長（均不包括可報告的災難），這比我們之前對每股收益增長落後於 EBITDA 增長的預期有所改善。這一增長主要是由於我們調整後的 EBITDA 增長高於預期，目前已超過折舊和稅收費用的增長。

From a capital perspective, we upstreamed $180 million of segment dividends during the quarter and $292 million year-to-date, nearly half of segment adjusted EBITDA, including cats. We ended the quarter with $495 million of holding company liquidity, a significantly higher level than at the end of the first quarter. As expected, we resumed share repurchases during the second quarter, repurchasing $20 million of common stock as well as an additional $10 million throughout July.

從資本角度來看，本季度我們上調了 1.8 億美元的部門股息，年初至今上調了 2.92 億美元，佔部門調整後 EBITDA（包括貓）的近一半。截至本季度末，我們的控股公司流動資金為 4.95 億美元，明顯高於第一季度末的水平。正如預期的那樣，我們在第二季度恢復了股票回購，回購了 2000 萬美元的普通股，並在整個 7 月份額外回購了 1000 萬美元。

For the remainder of the year, we would expect to gradually accelerate our level of buybacks with the majority weighted toward the fourth quarter, keeping in mind third quarter is hurricane season, and we will look to preserve our capital flexibility.

在今年剩餘時間裡，我們預計將逐步加快回購水平，其中大部分集中在第四季度，記住第三季度是颶風季節，我們將尋求保持資本靈活性。

For 2023, we don't currently expect to exceed the 2022 underlying buyback activity of $200 million. Overall, it's been a strong first half of the year, and we're well positioned for the full year. In both Housing and Lifestyle, it will be critical for us to continue to execute through innovation and enhanced customer experience for our clients and their end consumers, which is what differentiates Assurant and supports long-term growth.

對於 2023 年，我們目前預計回購活動不會超過 2022 年 2 億美元。總體而言，今年上半年表現強勁，我們為全年做好了準備。在住房和生活方式領域，我們必須繼續通過創新和增強客戶及其最終消費者的客戶體驗來執行任務，這對我們來說至關重要，這也是 Assurant 的獨特之處並支持長期增長。

I'll now turn the call over to Richard to review second quarter results and our 2023 outlook in greater detail. Richard?

我現在將把電話轉給理查德，更詳細地回顧第二季度的業績和我們的 2023 年前景。理查德？

Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. For the second quarter of 2023, adjusted EBITDA, excluding reportable catastrophes, totaled $337 million, up $59 million or 21% year-over-year. And adjusted earnings per share, excluding reportable catastrophes, totaled $4.09 for the quarter, up 26% year-over-year.

謝謝基思，大家早上好。 2023 年第二季度，不包括可報告災難的調整後 EBITDA 總額為 3.37 億美元，同比增長 5,900 萬美元，即 21%。扣除可報告的災難因素後，該季度調整後每股收益總計 4.09 美元，同比增長 26%。

Let's start with Global Lifestyle for our segment results. This segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $197 million in the second quarter, an 11% decline year-over-year. However, prior period results included a real estate joint venture gain of $13 million, mainly impacting Global Automotive. If we exclude this prior period gain, adjusted EBITDA declined only 5% or $11 million, in line with our expectations. This decrease was primarily driven by lower results in Global Auto as continued inflationary impacts on labor and parts increased average claim severities. We also incurred increased claims cost on ancillary products as these costs revert to more normalized levels following their post-COVID lows. The Auto earnings decline was partially offset by higher investment income from higher yields and growth in the U.S. across distribution channels.

讓我們從全球生活方式開始我們的細分結果。該部門第二季度調整後 EBITDA 為 1.97 億美元，同比下降 11%。然而，上期業績包括房地產合資企業收益 1,300 萬美元，主要影響全球汽車公司。如果我們排除前期收益，調整後的 EBITDA 僅下降 5%，即 1100 萬美元，符合我們的預期。這一下降主要是由於全球汽車業績下降，因為勞動力和零部件的持續通脹影響增加了平均索賠嚴重程度。我們還增加了輔助產品的索賠成本，因為這些成本在疫情后的低點後恢復到更正常的水平。汽車收益的下降被美國各分銷渠道的收益率上升和增長帶來的投資收益增加所部分抵消。

In terms of Connected Living, excluding the prior period real estate gain and $3 million of unfavorable foreign exchange, earnings were roughly flat. In Mobile, earnings were down from soft results in Japan and Europe, as expected. As a reminder, headwinds in international earnings did not materialize until the second half of 2022. In Japan, we continue to experience subscriber declines as our 4-year protection product continues to run off. And in Europe, while we are benefiting from previous expense actions taken in the latter part of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, lower volumes have impacted year-over-year results.

在互聯生活方面，排除前期房地產收益和 300 萬美元的不利外匯，收益大致持平。正如預期的那樣，移動業務的收益因日本和歐洲的疲軟業績而下降。提醒一下，國際收益的逆風直到 2022 年下半年才顯現出來。在日本，隨著我們的 4 年期保護產品繼續耗盡，我們的訂戶數量繼續下降。在歐洲，雖然我們受益於 2022 年下半年和 2023 年初採取的費用行動，但銷量下降影響了同比業績。

U.S. mobile earnings were flat year-over-year as growth in North American device protection programs from carrier and cable operator clients was offset by lower mobile trade-in results. Trading results were impacted by lower volumes due to the timing and structure of carrier promotions and lower fee income from the previously disclosed contract change. However, higher prices on used devices partially offset the decline. Extended service contract earnings increased as U.S. client performance improved, benefiting the rate increases implemented from several clients that began to offset the impact of higher claims costs.

美國移動收入同比持平，因為運營商和有線運營商客戶的北美設備保護計劃的增長被移動以舊換新結果的下降所抵消。由於運營商促銷的時間和結構以及先前披露的合同變更導致的費用收入減少，交易量受到了影響。然而，二手設備價格上漲部分抵消了跌幅。隨著美國客戶業績的改善，延長服務合同收入有所增加，這得益於一些客戶實施的費率上調，這些上調開始抵消了索賠成本上升的影響。

Turning to net earned premium fees and other income. Lifestyle was up by $96 million or 5%. This growth was primarily driven by Global Automotive, reflecting prior period sales of vehicle service contracts. Connected Living net earned premiums fees and other income increased 1%. However, this includes an approximate $60 million negative impact from the previously disclosed mobile program contract changes, which had no impact on profitability. Excluding these contract changes, Connected Living net earned premiums, fees and other income grew by 6%.

轉向淨賺保費和其他收入。生活方式增長了 9600 萬美元，即 5%。這一增長主要由全球汽車推動，反映了前期車輛服務合同的銷售。 Connected Living 淨賺保費和其他收入增長了 1%。然而，這包括之前披露的移動項目合同變更帶來的約 6000 萬美元的負面影響，這對盈利能力沒有影響。排除這些合同變更，Connected Living 淨賺保費、費用和其他收入增長了 6%。

The quarter benefited from growth in mobile subscribers in North America, excluding client runoff and higher contributions from extended service contracts. For the full year 2023, we now expect adjusted EBITDA to be down modestly for Global Lifestyle. Global Auto is expected to be down for the full year as we anticipate loss experience to remain unfavorable for several quarters and the impacts from continued normalization of loss experience for select ancillary products previously mentioned.

該季度受益於北美移動用戶的增長，不包括客戶流失和擴展服務合同帶來的更高貢獻。對於 2023 年全年，我們現在預計環球生活方式的調整後 EBITDA 將小幅下降。全球汽車預計全年將下降，因為我們預計損失經歷將在幾個季度中保持不利，以及前面提到的特定輔助產品損失經歷持續正常化的影響。

As Keith described, we've taken specific actions such as rate increases on new business, repair cost reduction and changes to client contract structures to help mitigate these impacts, which is why we expect an increase in profitability over time. Higher investment income has and is expected to continue to partially offset these impacts.

正如基思所描述的，我們已經採取了具體行動，例如提高新業務的費率、降低維修成本以及更改客戶合同結構，以幫助減輕這些影響，這就是為什麼我們預計盈利能力會隨著時間的推移而增加。較高的投資收入已經並將繼續部分抵消這些影響。

In Connected Living, we do expect our U.S. Connected Living business to grow modestly for the full year. As a reminder, third quarter results historically include both lower trade-in volumes and higher loss seasonality. These items typically improve in the fourth quarter. In addition, our third quarter results last year included an $11 million onetime client benefit in Connected Living. And while Japan and Europe have stabilized, we are focused on top line growth, which has been slower to materialize than expected.

在互聯生活方面，我們確實預計我們的美國互聯生活業務全年將溫和增長。提醒一下，從歷史上看，第三季度的業績包括以舊換新量的減少和季節性損失的增加。這些項目通常會在第四季度有所改善。此外，我們去年第三季度的業績還包括 1100 萬美元的互聯生活一次性客戶收益。儘管日本和歐洲已經穩定下來，但我們專注於營收增長，但其實現速度比預期要慢。

Finally, we will also continue to focus on expenses while investing in growth opportunities, we have strong momentum with clients. In terms of net earned premiums, fees and other income for the full year, Lifestyle is expected to grow as growth in Global Automotive is partially offset by ongoing foreign exchange headwinds.

最後，我們還將繼續關注支出，同時投資增長機會，我們與客戶的勢頭強勁。就全年淨保費、費用和其他收入而言，生活方式預計將增長，因為全球汽車業的增長被持續的外匯不利因素部分抵消。

Moving now to Global Housing. Adjusted EBITDA was $155 million, which included $13 million in reportable catastrophes from severe windstorms in the Southeast U.S. and flooding in Florida. Excluding reportable catastrophes, adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $168 million were up $87 million from both top line growth and favorable non-cat loss experience within homeowners.

現在轉向全球住房。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.55 億美元，其中包括美國東南部嚴重風暴和佛羅里達州洪水造成的 1300 萬美元可報告災難。不包括可報告的災難，調整後的 EBITDA 增長了一倍多，達到 1.68 億美元，由於收入增長和房主良好的非巨災損失經驗，增加了 8700 萬美元。

Top line growth in lender-placed came from higher average insured values and premium rates as well as more policies in force. These together accounted for approximately half of the increase in earnings. Favorable non-GAAP loss experience came from a $40 million year-over-year net reduction in reserves related to prior period development and is comprised of a $28 million reserve reduction in the current quarter plus a $12 million reserve strengthening in the second quarter of '22. Excluding prior period development, non-cat loss experience increased modestly due to the increase in frequency and severity. Higher investment income also contributed to earnings growth.

貸款人的收入增長來自於平均保險價值和保費率的提高以及更多有效的保單。這些合計約佔收入增長的一半。有利的非公認會計準則虧損經驗來自於與前期開發相關的準備金同比淨減少 4000 萬美元，其中包括本季度準備金減少 2800 萬美元以及第二季度準備金增加 1200 萬美元。 22.排除前期的發展，由於頻率和嚴重程度的增加，非貓損失經歷略有增加。較高的投資收入也促進了盈利增長。

Turning to our reinsurance program. We completed our 2023 catastrophe reinsurance program in June. We fared well in the market with this year's total cost increasing less than previously expected and only modestly over 2022. This increase is relatively small due to strategic actions taken, including exiting our international footprint, increasing our level of retention and adjusting our reinsurance coverage. As anticipated, our first event retention increased to $125 million from its previous level of $80 million and the retention level reduces to $100 million for second and third events. We also increased our total program coverage to a 1-in-225-year, probable maximum loss to further minimize our risk from extreme catastrophes.

轉向我們的再保險計劃。我們於 6 月完成了 2023 年巨災再保險計劃。我們在市場上表現良好，今年的總成本增幅低於之前的預期，並且在2022 年期間增幅較小。由於採取了戰略行動，包括退出我們的國際業務、提高我們的自留水平以及調整我們的再保險承保範圍，這一增幅相對較小。正如預期的那樣，我們的第一場活動留存水平從之前的 8000 萬美元增加到了 1.25 億美元，第二次和第三次活動的留存水平則減少到 1 億美元。我們還將計劃總承保範圍提高到 225 年一遇的可能最大損失，以進一步最大限度地降低極端災難的風險。

Moving to Renters and Other. Earnings increased largely due to a benefit within our NFIP flood business of $5 million. Excluding this item, results were in line with 2022. For the full year 2023, we expect Global Housing adjusted EBITDA, excluding reportable cats, to grow significantly due to strong performance in homeowners, driven by top line expansion from lender-placed.

轉向租戶和其他。盈利增長主要歸功於我們 NFIP 洪水業務帶來的 500 萬美元收益。排除這一項目，結果與2022 年一致。對於2023 年全年，我們預計全球住房調整後EBITDA（不包括應報告的貓）將大幅增長，原因是房主表現強勁，而貸方安置的收入擴張推動了房主的強勁表現。

Regarding the second half of the year, we expect ongoing momentum from a continued gradual abatement of inflation, lower seasonal losses particularly in the fourth quarter and continued revenue strength. This momentum should offset a modest increase in catastrophe reinsurance costs in the absence of both another NFIP benefit and additional favorable reserve development, which can be difficult to predict. Together, these last 2 items contributed $33 million to our first half results.

關於今年下半年，我們預計通脹持續逐步減弱、季節性損失減少（特別是第四季度）以及收入持續強勁將帶來持續的動力。在缺乏其他 NFIP 福利和額外有利準備金開發的情況下，這種勢頭應該會抵消巨災再保險成本的小幅增長，​​而這可能很難預測。最後兩項合計為我們上半年的業績貢獻了 3300 萬美元。

Moving to Corporate. The second quarter adjusted EBITDA loss was $29 million, up $4 million from lower investment income. For the full year 2023, we expect the corporate adjusted EBITDA loss to be approximately $105 million. I would also mention that the investment portfolio continues to perform well with higher interest rates improving both short- and longer-term returns.

轉向企業。第二季度調整後 EBITDA 損失為 2900 萬美元，比投資收入下降增加 400 萬美元。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計公司調整後 EBITDA 損失約為 1.05 億美元。我還要提到的是，投資組合繼續表現良好，利率上升改善了短期和長期回報。

Turning to Holding Company Liquidity. We ended the quarter with $495 million. In the second quarter, dividends from our operating segments totaled $180 million. In addition to cash used for corporate and interest expenses, second quarter cash outflows included 3 main items: $20 million of share repurchases, $40 million of common stock dividends and $50 million related to previous acquisitions within Global Auto. For the full year, we expect our businesses to continue to generate meaningful cash flows, approximating 65% of segment adjusted EBITDA, including reportable catastrophes. This is consistent with our previous forecast. Cash flow expectations assume a continuation of the current economic environment and are subject to the growth of the businesses, investment portfolio performance and rating agency and regulatory requirements.

轉向控股公司的流動性。本季度結束時，我們的收入為 4.95 億美元。第二季度，我們運營部門的股息總計 1.8 億美元。除了用於公司和利息支出的現金外，第二季度現金流出包括 3 個主要項目：2000 萬美元的股票回購、4000 萬美元的普通股股息以及與 Global Auto 之前收購相關的 5000 萬美元。全年，我們預計我們的業務將繼續產生有意義的現金流，約佔部門調整後 EBITDA 的 65%，包括可報告的災難。這與我們之前的預測一致。現金流量預期假設當前經濟環境持續存在，並受到業務增長、投資組合業績以及評級機構和監管要求的影響。

In closing, we're quite pleased with our first half overall performance, which continues to demonstrate the strength and the diversity of our businesses and believe we are well positioned to achieve our increased full year financial objectives.

最後，我們對上半年的整體業績感到非常滿意，這繼續展示了我們業務的實力和多樣性，並相信我們有能力實現增加的全年財務目標。

And with that, operator, please open the call for questions.

那麼，接線員，請打開電話提問。

The floor is now open for your questions. (Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from the line of Jeff Schmitt from William Blair.

現在請大家提問。 （操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自威廉·布萊爾的傑夫·施密特。

Global Housing seems to really be turning a corner here. But just looking at that, you'd mentioned the favorable development charge, I think it was $28 million. When we back that out, the underlying loss ratio was at 44%, which is still sort of high relative to historical levels and especially, I think, considering with the way that housing material and labor cost inflation to move down. So are you just sort of taking a conservative posture there? Or what are you seeing?

全球住房似乎真的正在迎來轉機。但只要看看這個，你就提到了有利的開發費用，我認為是 2800 萬美元。當我們推翻這一點時，基本損失率為 44%，相對於歷史水平來說仍然很高，特別是，我認為，考慮到住房材料和勞動力成本通脹下降的方式。那麼你只是採取保守的姿態嗎？或者你看到了什麼？

Yes. So maybe a couple of comments. Obviously, really pleased with the progress that the team has made. We talked a lot about it last year, a lot of actions to streamline the business to focus on the core products and obviously put appropriate rate adjustments in place, and certainly, it's showing through in the first half of the year. And to your point, that's exactly the way we look at it. We adjust the $28 million of [PPD] in the quarter. We also adjust for the $5 million FEMA bonus as we look at our overall results, underlying still incredibly strong, $135 million in the quarter.

是的。也許有一些評論。顯然，我們對團隊所取得的進步感到非常滿意。去年我們對此進行了很多討論，採取了很多精簡業務以專注於核心產品的行動，顯然還進行了適當的費率調整，當然，這一點在今年上半年就得到了體現。就您而言，這正是我們看待它的方式。我們調整了本季度 2800 萬美元的 [PPD]。當我們審視我們的整體業績時，我們還對 500 萬美元的 FEMA 獎金進行了調整，本季度的業績基礎仍然非常強勁，為 1.35 億美元。

And then to your point, current accident quarter loss ratios are 44%. I think a little under 42% last year. And that's just a factor of the increased inflationary pressure that we see being largely offset by the work we're doing on rate but not fully back to the levels that we saw last year. So as we think about the strong fundamental performance in Housing, it's not a result of unusually low loss ratios. In fact, kind of our year-to-date normalized combined are kind of right in the range of what we would have otherwise expected. But Richard, I don't know if you wanted to add anything else to that.

然後就你的觀點而言，當前季度事故損失率為 44%。我認為去年略低於 42%。這只是通脹壓力增加的一個因素，我們認為通脹壓力在很大程度上被我們在利率方面所做的工作所抵消，但並沒有完全回到去年的水平。因此，當我們考慮住房市場強勁的基本面表現時，這並不是損失率異常低的結果。事實上，我們今年迄今為止的標準化總和在我們原本預期的範圍內。但是理查德，我不知道你是否還想補充什麼。

Yes, exactly. And I would just say, if we look year-over-year, you're exactly right, Jeff, with the 44%. That's a couple of points above last year's level, same time. And as Keith said, I think we do have some inflation that's -- it's higher last year than the costs are higher this year than last year. So that's running through a little more frequency and just also, there was more, I would call, severe convexity storms in the last quarter. And while those storms, most of those storms didn't make it to reportable cats for us, over $5 million, as you know, we had a very low level in the quarter. Some of them are in the non-cat loss ratio. So we did have our share of those, I would say, overall, and that's within the couple point increase that we see over the year as well.

對，就是這樣。我只想說，如果我們逐年比較的話，傑夫，你說的是 44%，這是完全正確的。這比去年同期的水平高出幾個百分點。正如基思所說，我認為我們確實存在一些通貨膨脹——去年的通貨膨脹率高於今年的成本。因此，這種情況的發生頻率更高一些，而且上個季度出現了更多的，我稱之為嚴重的凸性風暴。雖然這些風暴，其中大部分風暴並沒有達到我們應報告的目標，但如您所知，超過 500 萬美元，我們本季度的水平非常低。其中一些處於非貓損失率中。因此，我想說，總體而言，我們確實取得了這些份額，而且這也在我們今年看到的幾個百分點的增長之內。

Okay. That makes sense. And then what was the inflation guard adjustment, I think that goes in maybe once a year, but what is that going to be this year versus last year? Obviously, that's going to go into premium. And then are you still getting rate sort of above that as well?

好的。這就說得通了。然後，通脹警戒調整是什麼，我認為可能每年進行一次，但今年與去年相比會是多少？顯然，這將進入溢價。那麼您的利率是否仍高於該水平？

Yes. So we talked about inflation guard going in double-digit levels last July. So we would have put the final adjustments through based on that in June of this year. And then to your point, we do an annual adjustment, it's 3.1% adjustment that would go in on top of that for July to AIV. And then modest rate adjustments, plus and minus as we think about managing across all of our states, but certainly still have more to earn through from last year's AIV adjustments and then on top of that, the 3% that we just put in place in July.

是的。因此，去年 7 月我們談到通脹率將達到兩位數水平。所以我們會在今年6月份的基礎上進行最後的調整。然後就你的觀點而言，我們會進行年度調整，這是 7 月份 AIV 調整的 3.1%。然後是適度的利率調整，當我們考慮在我們所有的州進行管理時，加減，但肯定仍然可以從去年的 AIV 調整中獲得更多收益，然後最重要的是，我們剛剛實施的 3％七月。

Our next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團 (UBS) 的布萊恩·梅雷迪思 (Brian Meredith)。

A couple of questions here for you. First, can you talk a little bit about the inflationary pressures you're seeing in Global Auto? And I understand it's going to pressure margins here through the remainder of 2023. Is this something we're going to see continuing to pressure margin throughout 2024 just as it takes time for these contract changes to work through numbers?

這裡有幾個問題要問你。首先，您能談談您在全球汽車行業看到的通脹壓力嗎？據我所知，這將在2023 年剩餘時間內對利潤率造成壓力。我們是否會在整個2024 年看到這種情況繼續對利潤率造成壓力，就像這些合同變更需要時間才能通過數字體現出來一樣？

Yes, I definitely think there'll be continued pressure. I do expect '24 to be improved from '23, but definitely, we'll see elevated levels of losses from the inflationary pressure on the parts and labor and auto. As I think about sizing that for you, I'd probably think maybe a little north of $10 million a quarter in EBITDA impact. So if I was going to size it for this year, that's probably the range that we would put on it.

是的，我確實認為壓力將會持續存在。我確實預計 24 年會比 23 年有所改善，但毫無疑問，我們會看到零部件、勞動力和汽車的通脹壓力造成的損失水平上升。當我考慮為您確定這個規模時，我可能認為每季度 EBITDA 的影響可能會超過 1000 萬美元。因此，如果我要確定今年的規模，這可能就是我們的範圍。

I would say that's -- we expect that to recover over time, both in terms of the rate increases that I mentioned earlier, but also the actions we're taking to try to optimize the service network to improve access to parts and to try and drive down claim costs as well. And that obviously can have a more near-term benefit and the rate takes a little longer to earn through.

我想說的是，我們預計這種情況會隨著時間的推移而恢復，無論是在我之前提到的費率增加方面，還是在我們為優化服務網絡以改善零件獲取和嘗試而採取的行動方面。也降低了索賠成本。這顯然可以帶來更短期的好處，但需要更長的時間才能實現。

What I would say is we've taken the actions that we want to take. So we've had great dialogue with our clients. There's only a handful of clients where this is really an impact for us, and we've made rate adjustments already in partnership. Our interests are very well aligned with our clients, and we feel confident that we're going to get this to the right level over time. You've seen us resolve issues from inflation in Housing. We've resolved issues on ESC. Obviously, auto is the new area of focus, and our team is 100% focused on delivering and executing.

我想說的是，我們已經採取了我們想要採取的行動。所以我們與客戶進行了很好的對話。只有少數客戶這對我們確實產生了影響，我們已經在合作夥伴中進行了費率調整。我們的利益與客戶的利益非常一致，並且我們有信心隨著時間的推移將其達到正確的水平。您已經看到我們解決了住房通脹問題。我們已經解決了 ESC 的問題。顯然，汽車是新的重點領域，我們的團隊 100% 專注於交付和執行。

Excellent. And then second question, Japan, when are we going to lap some of these kind of contract roll things that were going on? When will that finally kind of be done? Is that the end of this year? Is there any kind of going into 2024 as the contract changes in Japan?

出色的。然後第二個問題，日本，我們什麼時候要完成一些正在發生的合同滾動事情？這最終什麼時候才能完成？那是今年年底嗎？隨著日本合同的變化，是否會進入 2024 年？

Yes. I think that runs through really this year, and I would expect to see a lot more stability as we head into '24. And then I do think we've got an incredible position in the Japanese market. We partnered with all 4 carriers. There's a tremendous amount of long-term growth opportunity in that market. And I definitely think we'll see growth again in '24 and over the long term.

是的。我認為這確實貫穿了今年，我預計當我們進入 24 世紀時會看到更多的穩定性。我確實認為我們在日本市場上擁有令人難以置信的地位。我們與所有 4 家運營商都有合作。該市場存在巨大的長期增長機會。我絕對認為我們將在 24 年以及長期內再次看到增長。

So that's a meaningful part of the headwind you're seeing is the Japan kind of contractual more than kind of an economic situation?

那麼，您所看到的逆風的一個有意義的部分是日本的合同而不是經濟形勢？

Yes. I think the financial performance is still very strong in Japan. I would say the first half of this year stabilized from the second half of last year. We had a very strong first half, both in Japan and Europe in our '22 results. So from a year-over-year comparison, definitely, they look down. But in terms of sequential, as we look at exiting last year, they're both very stable. So I'm really pleased with that performance. In fact, Europe is above where it finished the year in Japan very stable to where it finished. But it is a meaningful contributor for us, and it's an important part of long-term growth. So it will no doubt be a priority.

是的。我認為日本的財務表現仍然非常強勁。我想說今年上半年比去年下半年穩定了。在我們 22 年的成績中，我們上半場的成績非常強勁，無論是在日本還是在歐洲。因此，從同比比較來看，他們肯定會看不起。但就順序而言，當我們看看去年的退出時，它們都非常穩定。所以我對這次的表現非常滿意。事實上，歐洲的表現高於日本今年的表現，與去年的表現非常穩定。但它對我們來說是一個有意義的貢獻者，也是長期增長的重要組成部分。因此，這無疑將是一個優先事項。

Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes from Truist.

我們的下一個問題來自 Truist 的馬克·休斯 (Mark Hughes)。

The fee income, what's your outlook in terms of kind of programs or trade-in promotions as we think about the balance of the year?

費用收入，當我們考慮今年的剩餘時間時，您對各種計劃或以舊換新促銷的前景有何看法？

Sure. And maybe I'll start and certainly, Richard, if you have other thoughts on fee income. But we saw -- and this can be volatile quarter-to-quarter really dependent on promotional activity within the industry. We're fortunate, particularly in the U.S., we partner with all of the major carriers, which is a great position to be in from a trade-in perspective. We definitely saw lower trade-in volume in Q2, whether you look at it sequentially or year-over-year. And that's really just a function of the amount of advertising, the promotion and how hard are carriers pushing to upgrade customers to new devices and then how aggressively are they promoting trade-in offers.

當然。也許我會開始，當然，理查德，如果你對費用收入有其他想法。但我們看到，這可能會逐季度波動，實際上取決於行業內的促銷活動。我們很幸運，特別是在美國，我們與所有主要運營商都有合作夥伴，從以舊換新的角度來看，這是一個很好的位置。無論是按順序還是同比來看，我們在第二季度確實看到了以舊換新量的下降。這實際上只是廣告數量、促銷活動以及運營商推動客戶升級到新設備的力度以及他們促銷以舊換新優惠的力度的函數。

And that ebbs and flows. It was a little bit down in the quarter. To the extent that as new devices come out in the fall, we certainly expect to see more aggressive marketing campaigns. But it's a little bit in the control of the hands of our clients, and it's a very dynamic market, but continues to be important for our clients and something that we're very focused on.

潮起潮落。本季度略有下降。隨著新設備在秋季上市，我們當然希望看到更積極的營銷活動。但這在我們客戶手中有一點控制權，這是一個非常活躍的市場，但對我們的客戶和我們非常關注的事情仍然很重要。

And typically, Mark, we would, Q3, we're not expecting big increases typically a higher period would be kind of Q4 for us. So a little bit of what we mentioned in our remarks as well. So there is some seasonality to it, as Keith mentioned, in the second half of the year.

通常情況下，馬克，我們預計第三季度不會出現大幅增長，通常較高的時期對我們來說是第四季度。我們在發言中也提到了一些內容。因此，正如基思提到的，下半年存在一些季節性。

Yes. Understood. You mentioned the inflation guard up 3%. Any prospect for additional rate on top of that based on the date approved increases?

是的。明白了。您提到通貨膨脹率上升 3%。根據批准的加息日期，是否有可能增加加息？

I would say some marginal rate increases, certainly state by state. And obviously, we look at our rates very closely. So there's -- there'll be a little bit of additional rate coming through. But obviously, the big adjustments we put through last year that are still earning through the book.

我想說的是，邊際利率會有所提高，當然是逐州提高。顯然，我們非常仔細地審視我們的費率。因此，將會有一些額外的利率出現。但顯然，我們去年所做的重大調整仍然通過這本書獲利。

Sorry, Mark, as we look forward to the second half of the year, we could see slight increases, but we're not seeing large increases to revenues continuing. I think we've kind of gotten there already, plus we've gotten out of certain international areas. So overall, the revenues will be impacted a little bit by that. But overall, I think there will be a little more to come, but not -- certainly not the levels we've seen over the past year.

抱歉，馬克，當我們期待下半年時，我們可能會看到輕微的增長，但我們沒有看到收入持續大幅增長。我認為我們已經到達了那裡，而且我們已經脫離了某些國際領域。總體而言，收入將受到一點影響。但總的來說，我認為還會有更多的變化，但肯定不會達到我們去年看到的水平。

Yes. And how about the new money yield on investments versus the portfolio yield? What are the prospects for more improvement there?

是的。投資的新資金收益率與投資組合收益率相比如何？那裡有哪些進一步改善的前景？

Well, I'd divide into a couple of things. I mean, we've actually had some nice increase in investment income over the last year. Think Absent the real estate gains, probably $30 million in cash in short term. And then obviously, we didn't have a real estate gain this quarter. But just on your question on yields, we do have, in the long term, our fixed income portfolio is a 5-year duration. So we get a continuous role on that, and we'll get a continuous kind of increase in those longer-term yields.

嗯，我會分為幾件事。我的意思是，去年我們的投資收入實際上有了一些不錯的增長。想想如果沒有房地產收益，短期內可能會獲得 3000 萬美元的現金。顯然，本季度我們沒有獲得房地產收益。但就你關於收益率的問題而言，從長遠來看，我們的固定收益投資組合的期限確實是 5 年。因此，我們將在這方面發揮持續的作用，並且我們將獲得長期收益率的持續增長。

We've really benefited from short-term rates also, which is -- accounts for almost as much as the increase or as much as the increase in the longer-term yields, right, with the Fed increasing interest rates. At some point in the future, those will probably come down. So we'll see that cash return come down. Who knows when that will happen, but we could see that as well. But on a longer-term basis, we should continue to get some yield increase.

我們也確實從短期利率中受益，隨著美聯儲加息，短期利率幾乎與長期收益率的增長一樣多，對吧。在未來的某個時候，這些可能會下降。所以我們會看到現金回報下降。誰知道什麼時候會發生，但我們也可以看到這一點。但從長期來看，我們應該會繼續獲得一定程度的收益率增長。

Our next question comes from the line of Tommy McJoynt with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tommy McJoynt。

You mentioned the expectations for modest growth in Connected Living this year, and we've had a little bit of discussion on sort of U.S., Japan and Europe. Could you dissect those expectations for that modest growth just into any maybe sort of ranges for U.S. x percent, Japan down x percent. Just trying to get a gauge of exactly how much of a headwind in terms of the overall number that Japan and Europe actually are?

您提到了今年互聯生活適度增長的預期，我們對美國、日本和歐洲進行了一些討論。您能否將這些對溫和增長的預期分解為美國 x%、日本下降 x% 的任何可能範圍。只是想衡量一下日本和歐洲的總體數字究竟有多少逆風？

Yes, I'd say if I look at Lifestyle and we think about the outlook for '23, I would say, domestic Connected Living, I think we had a strong first half, and that will continue consistently for the back half of the year, and that will yield modest growth for Connected Living U.S.. So performance pretty steady, but that's going to be an increase year-over-year. And again, that's overcoming the onetime client benefit we had last year in the third quarter for $11 million.

是的，我想說，如果我看看生活方式，並考慮 23 年的前景，我會說，國內互聯生活，我認為我們上半年表現強勁，並且下半年將持續這種情況，這將為美國互聯生活帶來適度增長。因此表現相當穩定，但同比將會有所增長。這再次超過了我們去年第三季度獲得的 1100 萬美元的一次性客戶收益。

In terms of international, I'd say our expectations in the second half would be consistent with what we saw in the first half. So continued stability and obviously then putting our attention to driving longer-term growth opportunities, particularly in Europe and Asia Pacific. And then in terms of the auto side of the business, I'd say auto losses will remain kind of at elevated levels as we saw in the first half. We'll continue to see the normalization of GAAP and I would expect Auto in the back half of the year to reflect something more similar to what we saw in the second quarter. That would be the simple way for me to think about it, Tommy.

在國際比賽方面，我想說我們對下半場的期望將與我們在上半場看到的一致。因此，持續穩定，顯然我們將注意力放在推動長期增長機會上，特別是在歐洲和亞太地區。然後就汽車業務而言，我認為汽車損失將保持在較高水平，正如我們在上半年看到的那樣。我們將繼續看到公認會計準則的正常化，我預計今年下半年的汽車行業將反映出與我們在第二季度看到的更相似的情況。湯米，這對我來說是一個簡單的思考方式。

Okay. Yes. That's helpful. And then switching over to some of the line of questioning on Housing. Obviously, there's been pretty tremendous growth this year. I think you guys have last given your sort of normalized cat load expectations for $140 million for this year. With all the growth that you've seen in Housing, [you have] been any early indications for what you might consider a normalized cat load as we head into '24?

好的。是的。這很有幫助。然後轉向一些有關住房的問題。顯然，今年的增長相當巨大。我想你們上次給出了今年 1.4 億美元的標準化貓負荷預期。隨著您在住房領域看到的所有增長，[您]是否有任何早期跡象表明，當我們進入 24 世紀時，您可能會考慮標準化的貓負載？

Yes. We haven't really updated our cat load. I mean we put it in for the year and then to be honest, after that, it's sort of like the weather the cats will get, I would say. So we're still at that $140 million number so far. But speaking of that, we were really happy with the reinsurance, the cat reinsurance placement that we put into place where we had thought going into the season at the end of last year, we get an increase, a non-negligible increase in our cat reinsurance. And actually, at the end of the day, we're only going to be modestly up over the year.

是的。我們還沒有真正更新我們的貓負載。我的意思是我們把它放在一年裡，然後說實話，在那之後，我想說，這有點像貓會遇到的天氣。所以到目前為止我們的數字仍然是 1.4 億美元。但說到這一點，我們對再保險感到非常滿意，我們在去年底的賽季中進行了貓再保險安排，我們得到了增加，我們的貓的增加不可忽視再保險。事實上，歸根結底，我們這一年只會小幅上漲。

We've done that through a number of things, whether it's increasing the retention level, working with our reinsurers, exiting some of the international -- or exiting the international property footprint that we have. So we've done a lot of things to kind of protect the company. We increased the top end as well to 1-in-225-year, maximum probable loss, so we think we're in good position. So far in -- through July, we haven't had any cats hit us that are reportable so far, so we'll wait and see. Obviously, we're in cat season right now, so we'll see how it comes out.

我們已經通過很多事情做到了這一點，無論是提高保留水平、與我們的再保險公司合作、退出一些國際業務，還是退出我們現有的國際財產足跡。因此，我們做了很多事情來保護公司。我們還將上限提高至 225 年一遇的最大可能損失，因此我們認為我們處於有利位置。到目前為止，直到七月份，我們還沒有發生任何可報告的貓襲擊我們的事件，所以我們將拭目以待。顯然，我們現在正處於貓的季節，所以我們會看看結果如何。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from the line of John Barnidge from Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 John Barnidge。

In your prepared remarks, you talked about new [vectors] of Global Lifestyle growth. How do you think through that? It sounds like expanding business.

在您準備好的發言中，您談到了全球生活方式增長的新[向量]。您對此有何看法？聽起來像是在擴大業務。

Yes. Certainly, a couple of thoughts. We've got great momentum with clients in Global Lifestyle around the world. If I think about our mobile business and the traction we've had over the course of the last 7 or 8 years has been pretty steady. We've got relationships with so many of the marquee brands globally, and that yields a lot of opportunity to do new things, introduce new services, innovate with new products, try to find new ways to help them drive success. So I would say we've got as much ongoing dialogue with clients today and prospects today as we've ever had, and there seems to be a constant interest in innovating and doing new things. And the fact that we've got a really wide-ranging capability set, I think, is a huge advantage for us, and we'd look to see that continue to drive growth long term.

是的。當然，有一些想法。我們與世界各地的全球生活方式客戶保持著良好的合作關係。如果我考慮一下我們的移動業務，我們在過去七、八年裡的吸引力一直相當穩定。我們與全球眾多知名品牌建立了合作關係，這為我們提供了很多嘗試新事物、推出新服務、創新新產品、嘗試尋找新方法來幫助他們取得成功的機會。因此，我想說，我們今天與客戶和潛在客戶進行了前所未有的持續對話，而且人們似乎對創新和做新事物有著持續的興趣。我認為，我們擁有非常廣泛的能力，這對我們來說是一個巨大的優勢，我們希望看到它繼續推動長期增長。

And then my follow-up question, you talked about expense reductions across the global franchise. Is that above what was previously contemplated into the Lifestyle input cost trends drive an increase in cost reductions?

然後是我的後續問題，您談到了全球特許經營的費用削減。這是否超出了之前預期的生活方式投入成本趨勢推動成本削減的增加？

Yes. Maybe I'll start and then Richard can add on. But certainly, we've tried to be very disciplined around expense management. Our goal this year was to hold our G&A expenses relatively flat. That means we have to overcome merit increases, additional costs for health and well-being for our employees. We've got to absorb incremental growth and incremental investment and we've tried to do that with some of the expense actions that we took in the fourth quarter last year, but also a pretty intense focus on driving digital first and automation through all of our operations, whether they were call center, claims operations or even our depots. That continues to be a huge area of focus for us. And we're really pleased with the progress we've made so far.

是的。也許我先開始，然後理查德可以補充。但當然，我們努力在費用管理方面非常嚴格。我們今年的目標是保持一般管理費用相對穩定。這意味著我們必須克服績效增長、員工健康和福祉的額外成本。我們必須吸收增量增長和增量投資，我們已經嘗試通過去年第四季度採取的一些費用行動來做到這一點，但也非常注重通過所有領域推動數字優先和自動化。我們的運營，無論是呼叫中心、索賠運營，甚至是我們的倉庫。這仍然是我們關注的一個重要領域。我們對迄今為止所取得的進展感到非常滿意。

But Richard, anything else you want to add on expenses?

但是理查德，您還想增加什麼費用嗎？

Yes, I would just say and then turning to the Housing side, in particular, we've gotten some really good leverage off our expense base with some of the investments we've made in automation and digital capabilities. And you've seen in our supplement, the expense ratio go down a number of points over the last year where we're at 38.8%. Now part of that, we had that NFIP bonus that Keith mentioned. But really, the lion's share of it is the fact that we've had increases in revenues and not a proportionate increase in expenses. So that really demonstrates we are getting leverage out of the business, out of the operations and all of the work that we talked about last year that the Housing area is doing.

是的，我只想說，然後轉向住房方面，特別是，我們通過在自動化和數字能力方面進行的一些投資，從我們的支出基礎中獲得了一些非常好的槓桿作用。您在我們的補充資料中看到，費用比率比去年下降了很多點，為 38.8%。作為其中的一部分，我們有基思提到的 NFIP 獎金。但實際上，最大的一部分是我們的收入增加，而不是支出相應增加。因此，這確實表明我們正在從業務、運營以及我們去年談到的住房領域正在進行的所有工作中獲得槓桿作用。

Our last question is coming from the line of Grace Carter from Bank of America.

我們的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Grace Carter。

I think that we had previously talked about maybe some seasonality in the Connected Living book in 3Q, just with people more likely to be out in the belt and maybe damaged devices. I was just curious if you could quantify that on a historical basis, just how we're thinking about how the loss ratio might shape up in the second half of the year?

我認為我們之前在第三季度的《互聯生活》一書中討論過可能存在一些季節性，只是人們更有可能處於困境並且可能損壞設備。我只是好奇你是否可以在歷史基礎上量化這一點，我們如何考慮下半年的損失率可能會如何形成？

Yes. Maybe I'll offer a couple of thoughts and then I ask Richard to jump in. But definitely, you're correct. We do see seasonality in Q3. We also see to Richard's point earlier, lower trade-in volume in the third quarter and higher trade-in volume in the fourth quarter. So as a result, we'd expect to see an improvement in Q4 over Q3 for Connected Living. And to the extent that we've got certain mobile programs where we're on risk, obviously, we see that impact on frequency in our quarterly results in the third quarter.

是的。也許我會提出一些想法，然後我請理查德插話。但毫無疑問，你是對的。我們確實在第三季度看到了季節性。我們還看到理查德早些時候的觀點，第三季度以舊換新量減少，第四季度以舊換新量增加。因此，我們預計第四季度的互聯生活將比第三季度有所改善。就我們的某些移動程序而言，我們顯然面臨風險，我們在第三季度的季度業績中看到了這對頻率的影響。

Now we have moved one of our clients to a reinsurance structure, which we talked about, that noneconomic contract change. That certainly will help mitigate some of that impact. But I don't think we've sized what we would expect the delta to be. But Richard, you might want to add some commentary?

現在，我們已經將我們的一位客戶轉移到再保險結構，我們談到了這種非經濟合同變更。這肯定有助於減輕部分影響。但我不認為我們已經確定了三角洲的規模。但是理查德，你可能想添加一些評論嗎？

Yes. We haven't sized it, but I would say it's modest. I mean, really what we wanted to portray is really Q3 is typically a softer quarter from us -- for us, for the trade-ins and some claims increase. It's not hugely material, but it's enough for us to talk about to really say, hey, when you're looking at Q3 and Q4, if you're modeling that, Q3 is going to be softer and Q4 is usually stronger because we don't have the claims, the increase in claims that we just talked about and then trade-ins are usually higher.

是的。我們還沒有確定它的大小，但我想說它是適度的。我的意思是，我們真正想要描繪的是，第三季度通常是我們的一個較疲軟的季度——對我們來說，因為以舊換新和一些索賠的增加。這並不是很重要，但足以讓我們真正談論，嘿，當你看 Q3 和 Q4 時，如果你對此進行建模，Q3 會更軟，而 Q4 通常會更強，因為我們不這樣做沒有索賠，我們剛才談到的索賠增加，然後以舊換新通常會更高。

And then I guess on the decrease year-over-year in Global Devices service. To what extent is that driven by the discontinuation of the in-store repair capabilities versus any other factors?

然後我猜測全球設備服務的同比下降。與其他因素相比，店內維修能力的中斷在多大程度上導致了這種情況？

Yes. That was $400,000 on a year-over-year basis. So you could remove $400,000 from Q2 last year, and that will give you an appropriate comparison. .

是的。同比增長 40 萬美元。因此，您可以從去年第二季度中扣除 400,000 美元，這樣您就可以進行適當的比較。 。

All right. I think we took all of the questions. So thank you, everyone, for joining today, and we'll certainly look forward to speaking to you again in November for our third quarter earnings call. And as usual, please reach out to Suzanne and Sean, if you have any follow-up questions. And again, thanks, everybody.

好的。我想我們回答了所有的問題。感謝大家今天的加入，我們當然期待在 11 月份的第三季度財報電話會議上再次與大家交談。像往常一樣，如果您有任何後續問題，請聯繫 Suzanne 和 Sean。再次謝謝大家。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a...

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時請斷開您的線路，並...

And Sean, if you have any follow-up questions. And again, thanks, everybody.

肖恩，如果您有任何後續問題。再次謝謝大家。