Assurant Inc (AIZ) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Assurant's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2023 Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Sean Moshier, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

歡迎參加 Assurant 2023 年第四季和全年電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員指示）現在我很高興將發言權交給投資人關係副總裁 Sean Moshier。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant's conference call are Keith Demmings, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Keith Meier, our Chief Financial Officer. Yesterday, after the market closed, we issued a news release announcing our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2023. The release and corresponding financial supplement are available on assurant.com. Also on our website is a slide presentation that we introduced this quarter for our webcast participants.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。我們期待今天與您討論 2023 年第四季和全年業績。與我一起參加 Assurant 電話會議的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Keith Demmings；和我們的財務長 Keith Meier。昨天收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿，公佈了 2023 年第四季度和全年業績。新聞稿和相應的財務補充資料可在 assurant.com 上獲取。我們的網站上還有本季為網路廣播參與者推出的幻燈片簡報。

Some of the statements made today are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements are based upon our historical performance and current expectations and subject to risks uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements. Additional information regarding these factors can be found in the earnings release, presentation and financial supplement on our website as well as in our SEC reports.

今天發表的一些聲明具有前瞻性。前瞻性陳述是基於我們的歷史績效和當前預期，並受到風險不確定性和其他因素的影響，這些因素可能導致實際結果與這些陳述預期的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊可以在我們網站上的收益發布、演示和財務補充以及我們的 SEC 報告中找到。

During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance. For more details on these measures, the most comparable GAAP measures, and a reconciliation of the 2, please refer to the news release and supporting materials.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標，我們認為這些指標對於評估公司績效非常重要。有關這些措施、最具可比性的 GAAP 措施以及兩者的調節的更多詳細信息，請參閱新聞稿和支援資料。

We'll start today's call with remarks before moving into Q&A. I will now turn the call over to Keith Demmings. Keith?

在進入問答環節之前，我們將首先發表演說。我現在將把電話轉給基斯·戴明斯。基思？

Thanks, Sean, and good morning, everyone. 2023 was an extraordinary year for Assurant, our seventh consecutive year of profitable growth. We drove shareholder value by delivering financial outperformance, maintaining a strong capital position and generating significant momentum throughout our businesses. Adjusted EBITDA grew 21% to nearly $1.4 billion, and adjusted EPS increased by 26%, both excluding reportable catastrophes.

謝謝肖恩，大家早安。 2023 年對 Assurant 來說是不平凡的一年，我們連續第七年實現獲利成長。我們透過提供卓越的財務表現、維持強大的資本狀況並在整個業務中產生巨大的動力來推動股東價值。調整後 EBITDA 成長 21%，達到近 14 億美元，調整後每股盈餘成長 26%，均不包括可報告的災難。

Our results were driven by the strength of our Homeowners business within Global Housing, which delivered adjusted EBITDA growth of nearly 65%, excluding cats. In addition, our Connected Living business continued to grow, supported by our strong U.S. partnerships with mobile carriers and cable operators, and our ability to innovate and execute for our clients.

我們的業績得益於 Global Housing 房主業務的強勁表現，調整後 EBITDA 成長近 65%（不包括貓咪）。此外，在我們與行動營運商和有線營運商的強大美國合作夥伴關係以及我們為客戶創新和執行的能力的支持下，我們的互聯生活業務持續成長。

Together, Lifestyle and Housing generated nearly $775 million in dividends. This allowed us to return over $350 million to shareholders, including $200 million of share repurchases. 2023 was a testament to the power and attractive financial profile of our unique and differentiated Lifestyle and Housing businesses.

生活方式和住房業務合計產生了近 7.75 億美元的股息。這使我們能夠向股東返還超過 3.5 億美元，其中包括 2 億美元的股票回購。 2023 年證明了我們獨特且差異化的生活方式和住房業務的實力和有吸引力的財務狀況。

Assurant would not have been able to achieve this level of success without our talented people, including our newly refreshed management committee, further strengthening our leadership team. As we celebrate our 20th year as a public company, I am proud of the world-class culture we've created, exemplified by the many recognitions Assurant has received throughout 2023. Earlier this week, JUST 100 included Assurant as part of its 2024 rankings of America's most JUST companies, recognizing our commitment to serving our employees, customers, communities, the environment and our shareholders.

如果沒有我們的優秀人才，包括我們新改組的管理委員會，進一步加強我們的領導團隊，安信龍不可能如此成功。在我們慶祝上市公司成立20 週年之際，我為我們創造的世界級文化感到自豪，安信龍在2023 年全年獲得的眾多認可就是例證。本週早些時候，JUST 100 將安信龍納入其2024年排名的一部分美國最公正的公司之一，認可我們為員工、客戶、社區、環境和股東服務的承諾。

In addition, we received recognition from Fortune as 1 of America's most innovative companies, and Newsweek recognized the progress we've made to incorporate sustainability into our strategy by placing us on its list of America's most responsible companies. The dedication from our employees and leadership team, who strive to achieve our vision every day, makes it possible to innovate to better serve our clients and create value for our shareholders.

此外，我們也被《財星》雜誌評為美國最具創新力的公司之一，《新聞週刊》將我們列入美國最負責任的公司名單，認可了我們在將永續發展納入策略方面所取得的進展。我們的員工和領導團隊每天都在努力實現我們的願景，他們的奉獻精神使我們能夠進行創新，更好地服務客戶並為股東創造價值。

We begin 2024 in a position of strength and with great momentum. Over the past 2 years, we focused on further strengthening our business portfolio and driving operational excellence while accelerating innovation. By investing in businesses where we have leadership positions, we believe we're well positioned for future success.

我們以強勁的勢頭和強勁的勢頭開啟 2024 年。在過去的兩年裡，我們專注於進一步加強我們的業務組合，推動卓越運營，同時加速創新。透過投資我們處於領先地位的企業，我們相信我們已經為未來的成功做好了準備。

For instance, within Global Lifestyle, we've grown our presence in specialized markets, including in the commercial equipment space, where acquisitions have contributed to new client partnerships. We've strengthened our company through active portfolio management, making decisions to exit businesses that are not core to our long-term strategy. This included exiting our sharing economy offerings and international cat exposed businesses in Housing, further simplifying our portfolio.

例如，在全球生活方式領域，我們擴大了在專業市場的影響力，包括商業設備領域，在該領域的收購有助於建立新的客戶合作關係。我們透過積極的投資組合管理，做出退出非長期策略核心業務的決定，增強了我們的公司實力。這包括退出我們的共享經濟產品和住房領域的國際貓暴露業務，進一步簡化我們的投資組合。

We've made significant progress in driving operational excellence across Assurant with a streamlined organizational structure and real estate footprint. We've implemented Digital First initiatives across our operations to support our businesses and drive value for end consumers. Finally, we've accelerated innovation in a variety of ways to drive our business growth. Moving forward, technology innovation will continue to be an important driver of growth and value creation for Assurant.

透過精簡的組織結構和不動產覆蓋範圍，我們在推動 Assurant 卓越營運方面取得了重大進展。我們在整個營運中實施了數位優先計劃，以支援我們的業務並為最終消費者創造價值。最後，我們透過多種方式加速創新，以推動我們的業務成長。展望未來，技術創新將持續成為安信龍成長和價值創造的重要驅動力。

Our approach has driven success within our financial results, and is evident in our track record of winning new business and renewing client partnerships. This expansion of our client base is an integral part of our strategy and creates important tailwinds as we look toward the future.

我們的方法推動了我們財務表現的成功，並且在我們贏得新業務和更新客戶合作夥伴關係方面的記錄也反映了這一點。我們客戶群的擴大是我們策略的一個組成部分，並為我們展望未來創造了重要的推動力。

Now turning to highlights across our business segments. For 2023, Global Lifestyle earnings were relatively flat on a constant currency basis. In Connected Living, 2023 represented another year of growth for the business, with a 3% increase in earnings. Within our U.S. business, we drove high single-digit EBITDA growth as we continue to innovate and execute for our growing carrier and cable operator clients through our device protection programs. We strengthened critical partnerships, including Spectrum Mobile, where we provide mobile protection, trade-in and other value-added services. In addition, we expanded our trade-in programs with major OEMs by adding a large new partner as well as renewing AT&T, where we're deploying robotics in our mobile device facilities throughout the U.S.

現在轉向我們業務部門的亮點。 2023 年，以固定匯率計算，全球生活方式收益相對持平。在互聯生活領域，2023 年是該業務又一個成長年，營收成長了 3%。在我們的美國業務中，我們透過設備保護計畫為不斷成長的營運商和有線營運商客戶不斷創新和執行，推動了 EBITDA 高個位數成長。我們加強了重要的合作夥伴關係，包括 Spectrum Mobile，我們在其中提供行動保護、以舊換新和其他增值服務。此外，我們還透過增加大型新合作夥伴以及與 AT&T 續約，擴大了與主要 OEM 廠商的以舊換新計劃，我們正在 AT&T 遍布美國的行動裝置設施中部署機器人。

We continue to make progress internationally. In Europe, we stabilized earnings by driving expense efficiencies while continuing to address ongoing macroeconomic challenges. Throughout Asia Pacific, we're excited by our market position and our long-term outlook. We're very pleased to announce a new partnership with Telstra, Australia's largest mobile operator. Our new multiyear deal will allow us to provide comprehensive products to support the end-to-end device life cycle for Telstra's broad base of customers, including their core mobile protection program as well as trade-in and repair capabilities. This partnership is significant as we continue to build our presence in Asia Pacific.

我們在國際上繼續取得進展。在歐洲，我們透過提高費用效率來穩定收益，同時持續應對持續的宏觀經濟挑戰。在整個亞太地區，我們對我們的市場地位和長期前景感到興奮。我們非常高興地宣布與澳洲最大的行動電信商 Telstra 建立新的合作夥伴關係。我們新的多年期協議將使我們能夠提供全面的產品，為 Telstra 廣大客戶群的端到端設備生命週期提供支持，包括他們的核心移動保護計劃以及以舊換新和維修功能。隨著我們繼續擴大在亞太地區的影響力，這種夥伴關係意義重大。

Turning to Auto. Year-over-year declines were driven by inflationary impacts on claims costs. Beginning in 2022, we took decisive action to address significant inflation that impacted the auto repair industry. For the handful of deal structures, where we've been negatively impacted by underwriting results, we successfully partnered with our clients to implement meaningful rate increases, while making important changes to strengthen and enhance our claims adjudication process. Given the longer average duration of our auto service contracts, we'll earn through the full benefit of these actions over time, with improvement expected to begin in 2024.

轉向自動。年比下降是由於通貨膨脹對索賠成本的影響所造成的。從 2022 年開始，我們採取果斷行動，以應對影響汽車維修業的嚴重通膨問題。對於少數受到承保結果負面影響的交易結構，我們成功地與客戶合作，實現了有意義的費率上調，同時做出了重要改變，以加強和改進我們的索賠裁決流程。鑑於我們的汽車服務合約的平均期限較長，隨著時間的推移，我們將透過這些行動的全部收益獲得收益，預計將於 2024 年開始改善。

Based on the actions taken in Auto and the continued growth of Connected Living, we feel well positioned to deliver Global Lifestyle growth in 2024.

基於汽車領域採取的行動和互聯生活的持續增長，我們認為自己有能力在 2024 年實現全球生活方式的成長。

Let's move on to Global Housing. In 2023, this segment grew significantly, driving our overall enterprise performance. The growth was led by our Homeowners business, which was supported by higher premiums and in-force policy growth. The business rebounded from the inflation impacts on claims experienced in 2022 and also benefited from favorable prior year reserve development.

讓我們繼續討論全球住房。 2023 年，該細分市場顯著成長，推動了我們的整體企業績效。這一增長是由我們的房主業務帶動的，該業務受到保費上漲和有效保單增長的支持。該業務從 2022 年通膨對索賠的影響中反彈，並受益於上一年的準備金發展。

In addition to highlighting the significant earnings power of the business, our '23 housing results demonstrated differentiated returns and strong cash flow. Excluding favorable prior year development, our 2023 combined ratio was 83%, including $111 million of reportable cats, which was below our assumed annual cat load of $140 million.

除了突顯該業務的巨大盈利能力外，我們 23 年的住房業績還展示了差異化的回報和強勁的現金流。排除上一年的有利發展，我們 2023 年的綜合成本率為 83%，其中包括 1.11 億美元的可報告貓，低於我們假設的每年 1.4 億美元的貓負荷。

We are also very pleased to announce a new partnership in our lender-placed business. Beginning in the first quarter of 2024, we'll provide lender-placed insurance services to Bank of America's $1.8 million loan portfolio, further enhancing our market position and validating the competitive strength of our offerings. In renters and other, we increased earnings modestly in 2023 as our property management channel continued to expand. Written premiums in the property management channel grew nearly 20% in 2023. Along with adding new clients, we also achieved double-digit growth across 8 of our top 10 PMC clients, creating significant business momentum. Growth was supported by the continued expansion of Cover360, where we now track over 1 million residents, a nearly 45% increase over the prior year. Technology innovation also enhanced our digital customer experience, including a new digital agent leasing portal and expanded claims processing powered by machine learning.

我們也非常高興地宣佈在我們的貸方業務中建立新的合作夥伴關係。從 2024 年第一季開始，我們將為美國銀行 180 萬美元的貸款組合提供貸款人安排的保險服務，進一步增強我們的市場地位並驗證我們產品的競爭力。在租戶和其他方面，隨著我們的物業管理管道不斷擴大，我們的收入在 2023 年小幅增長。 2023年，物業管理管道的核保保費成長了近20%。隨著新客戶的增加，我們在十大PMC客戶中的8家也實現了兩位數的成長，創造了巨大的業務動力。成長得益於 Cover360 的持續擴張，我們現在追蹤超過 100 萬居民，比前一年增長了近 45%。技術創新也增強了我們的數位客戶體驗，包括新的數位代理商租賃入口網站和由機器學習支援的擴展索賠處理。

Let's turn to our 2024 enterprise outlook. We expect continued profitable growth in 2024, driven by our business momentum. While growth is expected to be lower than the significant outperformance we delivered in 2023, we expect our '24 results will demonstrate the combined earnings power of our advantaged portfolio. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding cats, is expected to grow mid-single digits, with Global Lifestyle and Global Housing delivering similar growth rates for the year. Adjusted EPS growth is expected to modestly trail adjusted EBITDA growth, primarily reflecting higher annual depreciation expenses related to technology investments critical in executing our strategy.

讓我們來看看我們的2024年企業展望。我們預計，在我們業務動能的推動下，2024 年獲利將持續成長。雖然成長預計將低於我們在 2023 年實現的顯著優異表現，但我們預計 24 年的業績將證明我們優勢投資組合的綜合獲利能力。調整後的 EBITDA（不包括貓）預計將成長中個位數，全球生活方式和全球住房今年的成長率類似。調整後的每股盈餘成長預計將小幅落後於調整後的 EBITDA 成長，這主要反映了與執行我們的策略至關重要的技術投資相關的年度折舊費用增加。

Before concluding, I'd like to introduce our recently appointed CFO, Keith Meier. Keith has been with Assurant for over 25 years and has served in leadership positions, managing P&Ls across many of Assurant's businesses. In his most recent role as Chief Operating Officer, Keith led the transformation of our technology and drove significant operational efforts to support the end customer experience. I have no doubt that Keith, as our CFO, will be an enabler of driving profitable growth while allocating capital strategically.

在結束之前，我想介紹一下我們最近任命的財務長 Keith Meier。 Keith 在 Assurant 工作超過 25 年，並​​擔任領導職務，負責管理 Assurant 許多業務的損益表。 Keith 最近擔任營運長期間，領導了我們的技術轉型，並推動了重大營運工作以支援最終客戶體驗。我毫不懷疑，身為我們的財務官，基思將成為推動獲利成長、同時策略性配置資本的推動者。

Now over to Keith to review our quarterly results and 2024 outlook in further detail.

現在請 Keith 詳細回顧我們的季度業績和 2024 年展望。

Thanks, Keith, and good morning, everyone. Before reviewing the quarterly results, I'd like to share my perspectives as I'm about to wrap up my first 90 days as Assurant's CFO. During my time at Assurant, I've been fortunate to have led several businesses as well as take on a variety of other roles across the organization, including most recently, leading our technology and operational teams. These experiences have provided me with deep insights into our global clients and the understanding of what is needed to deliver a high level of business performance, always backed by strong financial expertise and discipline.

謝謝基思，大家早安。在回顧季度業績之前，我想分享我的觀點，因為我即將結束擔任 Assurant 財務長的第一個 90 天的工作。在 Assurant 任職期間，我有幸領導過多項業務，並在整個組織中擔任過各種其他角色，包括最近領導我們的技術和營運團隊。這些經驗使我對我們的全球客戶有了深入的了解，並了解如何在強大的財務專業知識和紀律的支持下實現高水平的業務績效所需的條件。

As CFO, driving growth and financial performance will continue to be my priorities. I'm focused on ensuring our capital position remains strong as we create additional shareholder value and drive profitable growth through further innovation and differentiation within our product portfolio.

作為財務官，推動成長和財務表現將繼續是我的首要任務。我致力於確保我們的資本地位保持強勁，因為我們透過產品組合的進一步創新和差異化創造額外的股東價值並推動獲利成長。

As I look toward the future, I'm also focused on continued expense efficiencies by utilizing digital and AI technology, which also enables us to deliver better customer experiences. Lastly, I appreciated the opportunity to meet with many of our investors, employees and clients over the last several months and their willingness to share observations about Assurant as I began my tenure as CFO. Our discussions have enabled me to better shape my views and the path going forward.

展望未來，我還專注於透過利用數位和人工智慧技術來持續提高費用效率，這也使我們能夠提供更好的客戶體驗。最後，我很高興有機會在過去幾個月與我們的許多投資者、員工和客戶會面，並感謝他們在我開始擔任財務長時願意分享對安信龍的看法。我們的討論使我能夠更好地塑造我的觀點和前進的道路。

Now let's talk about our fourth quarter financial results, which reinforce the strength of our businesses and the performance that we've seen throughout the year. For the quarter, adjusted EBITDA grew 29% to $382 million, and adjusted EPS increased by 38% to $4.90, both excluding reportable catastrophes. Adjusted earnings and EPS growth were driven by year-over-year growth in both Housing and Lifestyle. Our capital position remains strong, generating $280 million of segment dividends in the fourth quarter and ending the year with $606 million of holding company liquidity. This allowed us to return $169 million to shareholders in the quarter, including $130 million of share repurchases.

現在讓我們來談談我們第四季的財務業績，它增強了我們的業務實力和我們全年的業績。本季度，調整後 EBITDA 成長 29%，達到 3.82 億美元，調整後每股盈餘成長 38%，達到 4.90 美元，均不包括可報告的災難。調整後收益和每股收益成長是由住房和生活方式的同比增長所推動的。我們的資本狀況依然強勁，第四季產生了 2.8 億美元的分部股息，年底控股公司流動性達到 6.06 億美元。這使我們能夠在本季向股東返還 1.69 億美元，其中包括 1.3 億美元的股票回購。

Let's review the businesses, beginning with Global Lifestyle. For the quarter, adjusted EBITDA grew 12% to $205 million, led by strong earnings growth of 23% within Connected Living as our U.S. mobile protection programs continued to grow. Higher yields on invested assets also contributed to the improved fourth quarter results.

讓我們回顧一下這些業務，首先從全​​球生活方式開始。本季度，調整後 EBITDA 成長 12%，達到 2.05 億美元，其中，隨著我們的美國行動保護計畫持續成長，互聯生活 (Connected Living) 的營收強勁成長 23%。投資資產收益率的上升也促進了第四季業績的改善。

Globally, our trade-in programs represent a critical component of our device life cycle value proposition, as well as a fee-based income driver supporting the growth of our mobile business. Throughout 2023, we serviced over 25 million devices, including 7.5 million in the fourth quarter, which represented a high watermark for the year. While trade-in results were down modestly year-over-year, we saw fee income growth from higher sale prices for used devices and contributions from new U.S. trade-in programs.

在全球範圍內，我們的以舊換新計畫代表了我們設備生命週期價值主張的關鍵組成部分，也是支持我們行動業務成長的收費收入驅動因素。 2023 年全年，我們為超過 2500 萬台設備提供了服務，其中第四季度的設備數量為 750 萬台，這是全年的高水位線。雖然以舊換新結果同比小幅下降，但我們看到二手設備銷售價格上漲以及美國新的以舊換新計劃的貢獻帶來了費用收入的增長。

Internationally, we continue to be impacted by subscriber declines in Japan, but have stabilized performance in a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.

在國際上，我們繼續受到日本用戶下降的影響，但在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟背景下實現了穩定的業績。

In Global Auto, fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was relatively flat as higher claims costs from inflation were offset by higher investment income. Claims were also elevated from the expected normalization of auto ancillary products and from international clients.

在全球汽車領域，第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 相對持平，因為通貨膨脹導致的索賠成本上升被投資收入的上升所抵消。汽車配套產品的預期正常化以及國際客戶的索賠也有所增加。

During the latter part of the year, we saw positive signs in U.S. loss trends as we began to benefit from prospective rate increases that were implemented.

在今年下半年，我們看到了美國損失趨勢的積極跡象，因為我們開始受益於已實施的預期升息。

Turning to net earned premiums, fees and other income. Lifestyle grew by $268 million or 13%. Growth from Global Automotive, which increased 14%, was due to $85 million of non-run rate premium adjustments with no corresponding earnings impact as well as prior period sales of vehicle service contracts. Connected Living net earned premiums, fees and other income increased 12%, benefiting from contributions from new trade-in programs, higher prices on used mobile devices and modest growth in North America mobile subscribers. Looking ahead to 2024, we expect Global Lifestyle's adjusted EBITDA to grow, driven by both Connected Living and Global Automotive.

轉向淨賺保費、費用和其他收入。生活方式增長了 2.68 億美元，即 13%。全球汽車業務成長了 14%，這是由於 8,500 萬美元的非運行費率溢價調整（沒有相應的盈利影響）以及前期車輛服務合約的銷售所致。 Connected Living 淨賺保費、費用和其他收入增加了 12%，這得益於新的以舊換新計劃、二手行動裝置價格上漲以及北美行動用戶的適度成長。展望 2024 年，我們預期 Global Lifestyle 的調整後 EBITDA 將在互聯生活和 Global Automotive 的推動下成長。

We expect growth in Connected Living to be led by the continued expansion of our U.S. business. We expect Japan and Europe to remain generally stable throughout the year.

我們預計互聯生活的成長將由我們美國業務的持續擴張帶動。我們預計日本和歐洲全年將保持整體穩定。

In Global Auto, we expect rate actions taken over the past 18 months to drive improvement over time, beginning in 2024. Investments related to new client implementations will temper growth in 2024 for Lifestyle, but are critical levers to expand our portfolio and strengthen our business over the long term. We continue to monitor foreign exchange impacts, broader macroeconomic conditions and interest rates, which may impact the pace and timing of growth.

在Global Auto 中，我們預計從2024 年開始，過去18 個月採取的利率行動將隨著時間的推移推動改善。與新客戶實施相關的投資將抑制Lifestyle 2024 年的成長，但它們是擴大我們的投資組合和加強我們的業務的關鍵槓桿從長遠來看。我們繼續監控外匯影響、更廣泛的宏觀經濟狀況和利率，這些可能會影響成長的速度和時機。

In terms of full year net earned premiums, fees and other income, lifestyle is expected to grow mainly from our Connected Living business.

就全年淨賺保費、費用和其他收入而言，生活方式預計將主要來自我們的互聯生活業務。

Moving to Global Housing. 2023 was truly a strong year. We drove growth from the actions taken over the past few years to ensure rate adequacy and drive expense leverage while benefiting from the streamlining that we undertook to simplify our portfolio. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $186 million, which included $22 million of reportable cats. Excluding reportable cats, adjusted EBITDA increased by nearly 50% or $68 million to $208 million. 2/3 of the increase was driven by favorable non-cat loss experience in homeowners including a favorable year-over-year impact of $35 million related to prior period reserve development.

轉向全球住房。 2023 年確實是強勁的一年。我們透過過去幾年採取的行動來推動成長，以確保利率充足並提高費用槓桿，同時受益於我們為簡化投資組合而進行的精簡。第四季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.86 億美元，其中包括 2,200 萬美元的應報告貓。不包括應報告的貓，調整後的 EBITDA 成長了近 50%，即 6,800 萬美元，達到 2.08 億美元。成長的 2/3 是由房主良好的非巨災損失經驗推動的，其中包括與上期準備金開發相關的 3500 萬美元的有利同比影響。

This was comprised of $40 million of reserve reductions in the current quarter compared to a $5 million reduction in the fourth quarter of 2022. The remainder of the adjusted EBITDA increase was from continued top line growth in homeowners from higher premiums and an increase in the number of in-force policies. Higher investment income also contributed to earnings growth.

其中包括本季準備金減少 4000 萬美元，而 2022 年第四季度減少了 500 萬美元。調整後 EBITDA 增長的其餘部分來自房主因保費上漲和數量增加而導致的收入持續增長。的有效政策。較高的投資收入也促進了獲利成長。

Growth was partially offset by incremental expenses to support new business, and an increase to our catastrophe reinsurance premium.

成長被支持新業務的增量支出以及巨災再保險保費的增加部分抵消。

For renters and other, earnings were flat as growth in our property management channel was offset by softer affinity channel volumes. For the full year 2024, we expect Global Housing adjusted EBITDA, excluding reportable cats, to grow, driven by continued top line momentum in homeowners.

對於租戶和其他人來說，收入持平，因為我們的物業管理管道的成長被親和力管道數量的疲軟所抵消。對於 2024 年全年，我們預計在房主收入持續增長勢頭的推動下，全球住房調整後 EBITDA（不包括應報告貓）將增長。

In 2023, we benefited from $54 million of favorable prior year reserve development. Our expectation is to deliver growth in housing in 2024, overcoming the $54 million of favorable prior year reserve development, demonstrating the strength of the housing business.

2023 年，我們受惠於前一年 5,400 萬美元的有利儲備開發。我們的預期是在 2024 年實現住房成長，克服上一年 5,400 萬美元的有利儲備開發，展現住房業務的實力。

As Keith discussed, we will begin onboarding 1.8 million loans from Bank of America in the first quarter. When fully onboarded, we expect the placement rate of the book to be below Assurant's current portfolio average of 1.8%, which may impact overall placement rate trends. Due to implementation expenses, we do not expect these loans to contribute significantly to adjusted EBITDA in 2024.

正如 Keith 所討論的，我們將在第一季開始從美國銀行獲得 180 萬筆貸款。當完全加入後，我們預計該書的安置率將低於 Assurant 目前投資組合的平均 1.8%，這可能會影響整體安置率趨勢。由於實施費用的原因，我們預計這些貸款不會對 2024 年調整後 EBITDA 做出重大貢獻。

In terms of our cat reinsurance program, we have transitioned to a single April 1 placement date beginning this year. This greatly simplifies our placement process, while maintaining comprehensive coverage in the market. As this is a transition year, we placed virtually all of our 2024 program in January, with some smaller components remaining for the April placement. For our 2024 program, our per-event retention will increase to $150 million, aligning with a 1- and 5-year probable maximum loss or PML, as we continue to optimize risk and return. This is consistent with our 2023 program.

就我們的巨災再保險計畫而言，從今年開始，我們已將單一安置日期改為 4 月 1 日。這極大地簡化了我們的安置流程，同時保持了對市場的全面覆蓋。由於今年是過渡年，我們幾乎將 2024 年的所有計劃都安排在 1 月份，還有一些較小的部分留到 4 月份安排。對於我們的 2024 年計劃，隨著我們繼續優化風險和回報，我們的每次事件保留將增加到 1.5 億美元，與 1 年和 5 年可能的最大損失或 PML 保持一致。這與我們的 2023 年計劃是一致的。

We've expanded our risk protection to align with exposure by increasing our top end limit to protect against a 1 in 265 PML event. Over the past 2 years, we've continued to increase our capital protection, increasing the top end of our program from a 1 in 174 PML in 2022 and to a 1 in 225 PML in 2023 and now a 1 in 265 PML in 2024.

我們擴大了風險保護範圍，透過提高上限來防範 265 個 PML 事件中的 1 個，從而與風險敞口保持一致。在過去的兩年裡，我們不斷加強資本保護，將計畫的上限從 2022 年的 1 分 174 PML 提高到 2023 年的 1 分 225 PML，現在到 2024 年提高到 265 分之一 PML。

Reflecting on these expected changes, we now estimate the appropriate cat load to be $155 million for 2024.

考慮到這些預期的變化，我們現在估計 2024 年適當的巨災負荷為 1.55 億美元。

Given the exit of our international property business, and the better market pricing as we leverage our strong reinsurer relationships, we expect a modest overall cost savings in 2024. We will provide further updates on the reinsurance program in May.

鑑於我們國際房地產業務的退出，以及我們利用強大的再保險公司關係來獲得更好的市場定價，我們預計 2024 年總體成本將適度節省。我們將在 5 月份提供再保險計劃的進一步更新。

Moving to Corporate. The fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA loss was $30 million, a $3 million year-over-year increase, mainly due to higher employee-related expenses. For 2024, we expect the corporate adjusted EBITDA loss to approximate $105 million.

轉向企業。第四季調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 3,000 萬美元，較去年同期增加 300 萬美元，主要是員工相關費用增加。 2024 年，我們預計公司調整後 EBITDA 損失約為 1.05 億美元。

Turning to capital management. As we look forward to 2024, we expect to continue to generate significant capital and focus on maintaining balance and flexibility to support business growth. For the full year, we expect our businesses to generate meaningful cash flows, approximating 2/3 of segment adjusted EBITDA, including reportable cats.

轉向資本管理。展望 2024 年，我們預計將繼續產生大量資本，並專注於保持平衡和靈活性，以支持業務成長。全年，我們預計我們的業務將產生有意義的現金流，約佔部門調整後 EBITDA 的 2/3，其中包括應報告的貓。

Cash flow expectations assume a continuation of the current macroeconomic environment and are subject to the growth of the businesses, investment portfolio performance and rating agency and regulatory requirements.

現金流量預期假設當前宏觀經濟環境持續存在，並受到業務成長、投資組合績效以及評級機構和監管要求的影響。

We repurchased $200 million of common stock in 2023, and currently expect share repurchases to be in the range of $200 million to $300 million for 2024, which will depend on strategic M&A opportunities, market conditions and cat activity. As you can see, we are well positioned to deliver another year of growth in 2024 through the power of the Assurant franchise.

我們在 2023 年回購了 2 億美元的普通股，目前預計 2024 年股票回購金額將在 2 億至 3 億美元之間，這將取決於策略併購機會、市場狀況和巨災活動。正如您所看到的，我們已做好充分準備，透過 Assurant 特許經營權的力量，在 2024 年實現又一個增長。

I'll now turn the call back to Keith Demmings to share his views on performance as supported by our differentiated business model. Keith?

現在，我將把電話轉回基思·戴明斯 (Keith Demmings)，分享他對我們差異化業務模式所支持的績效的看法。基思？

I'd like to take a few minutes to discuss why we believe that Assurant is so attractively valued today. Assurant is a powerful differentiated business with unique advantages that have outperformed over time. Our B2B2C business model throughout Lifestyle and Housing is different from other insurers and service-oriented companies. Not only do we operate in a unique, highly specialized and attractive markets, but we hold strong market positions and benefit from our scale.

我想花幾分鐘時間討論為什麼我們認為 Assurant 今天的估值如此有吸引力。 Assurant 是一家強大的差異化企業，擁有獨特的優勢，隨著時間的推移，其表現一直優於其他企業。我們在生活方式和住房領域的 B2B2C 業務模式不同於其他保險公司和服務型公司。我們不僅在一個獨特、高度專業化和有吸引力的市場中運營，而且還擁有強大的市場地位並受益於我們的規模。

At our core, we provide specialty insurance solutions and fee-based services that are often deeply integrated with our large clients as we play an important role in delivering services to their end customers. Our alignment with industry leaders and market disruptors has helped us generate significant scale within our businesses. Our competitive advantages are further strengthened by our broad set of capabilities that allow us to innovate and execute for our partners and customers, enabling us to be flexible and agile.

我們的核心是提供專業保險解決方案和收費服務，這些解決方案和收費服務通常與我們的大客戶深度整合，因為我們在向最終客戶提供服務方面發揮著重要作用。我們與行業領導者和市場顛覆者的合作幫助我們在業務中實現了巨大的規模。我們廣泛的能力進一步增強了我們的競爭優勢，這些能力使我們能夠為合作夥伴和客戶進行創新和執行，使我們變得靈活敏捷。

We have compelling and unique aspects of our business model that we believe create advantages. Our low capital intensity businesses allow us to grow efficiently, while generating additional capital for deployment. This is evident through our capital efficiency and strong cash generation of $3.5 billion over the last 5 years.

我們的商業模式具有引人注目且獨特的方面，我們相信這些方面可以創造優勢。我們的低資本密集度業務使我們能夠高效成長，同時產生額外的部署資本。過去 5 年我們的資本效率和 35 億美元的強勁現金產生就證明了這一點。

Our risk profile is attractive. Earnings volatility is lowered by the risk-sharing structures within our business models, reducing the impacts of macroeconomic volatility. For example, throughout Connected Living and Global Auto, approximately 2/3 of total risk is reinsured or profit shared to our partners. Within Housing, our portfolio simplification efforts have focused on exiting more capital-intensive businesses, which has enhanced our risk profile. In addition, our robust catastrophe program substantially limits retained risk due to the low per occurrence retention level and high limit at the top end of the tower.

我們的風險狀況很有吸引力。我們的業務模式中的風險分擔結構降低了獲利波動性，從而減少了宏觀經濟波動的影響。例如，在 Connected Living 和 Global Auto 中，大約 2/3 的總風險被再保險或利潤分享給我們的合作夥伴。在房屋領域，我們的投資組合簡化工作重點是退出更多資本密集業務，這增強了我們的風險狀況。此外，由於每次發生的保留水準較低且塔頂端的限制較高，我們強大的災難計劃大大限制了保留風險。

Lastly, we're well positioned to adjust pricing to enable our targeted rates of return. Lender-placed is a prime example where our product has a built-in annual inflation guard feature to ensure policy pricing accounts for higher labor and materials cost as we've seen over the last 2 years. In Auto, most of our client deal structures share in the risk through reinsurance or profit shares. This creates close alignment between Assurant's underlying economics and our clients' financial results. Given this dynamic, we have the ability to adjust rates together with our clients to account for inflation impacts in the broader market.

最後，我們有能力調整定價以實現我們的目標回報率。貸款人放置是一個典型的例子，我們的產品具有內建的年度通膨防範功能，以確保政策定價考慮到我們在過去兩年中看到的更高的勞動力和材料成本。在汽車領域，我們的大多數客戶交易結構透過再保險或利潤分享來分擔風險。這使得 Assurant 的基本經濟狀況與我們客戶的財務表現緊密結合。鑑於這種動態，我們有能力與客戶一起調整利率，以應對更廣泛市場的通膨影響。

Over the past 18 months, we've successfully worked with our clients to put through prospective rate increases on new vehicle service contracts.

在過去 18 個月中，我們成功地與客戶合作，實現了新車服務合約的預期費率上漲。

Financial performance is paramount for Assurant. While growth may not always be linear, we've delivered average annual earnings and EPS growth of double digits since 2019, which has generated significant cash flow. Our 2024 outlook adds to this historical growth that we've delivered.

財務表現對於 Assurant 來說至關重要。雖然成長可能並不總是線性的，但自 2019 年以來，我們的平均年收益和每股盈餘實現了兩位數的成長，產生了可觀的現金流。我們對 2024 年的展望進一步推動了我們所實現的歷史性成長。

To demonstrate the strength of our business model, we thought it would be useful to show how we performed versus a broad group of insurers on an adjusted earnings basis given the available data. Please keep in mind, this example is not to suggest a new peer group. We've selected the S&P 1500 P&C Index to highlight our performance against a credible and broad index that includes members we are often compared to, including specialty and P&C insurers. Over the past 5 years, we've grown double digits and outperformed the index. Our average annual adjusted earnings growth rate, excluding cats, up 12%, is almost double the index growth rate of 7% over the same time period.

為了展示我們業務模式的優勢，我們認為在現有數據的情況下，展示我們在調整後收益基礎上與眾多保險公司相比的表現將很有用。請記住，此範例並不是建議新的同級組。我們選擇 S&P 1500 P&C 指數是為了突出我們在可信賴且廣泛的指數中的表現，該指數包括我們經常進行比較的成員，包括專業保險公司和財產保險公司。過去 5 年，我們的業績實現了兩位數成長，並且跑贏了指數。我們的平均年度調整後獲利成長率（不包括貓）成長了 12%，幾乎是同期指數成長率 7% 的兩倍。

Including reportable cats, we've also outpaced the market, driving 10% average annual growth versus the index growth rate of 6%. We believe that our consistent ability to demonstrate strong, profitable growth and returns with lower volatility and required capital makes Assurant attractively valued. I'm confident that we'll continue to drive long-term profitable growth and create shareholder value.

包括應報告貓在內，我們的年平均成長率也超過了市場 10%，而指數成長率為 6%。我們相信，我們始終有能力展現強勁、獲利的成長和回報，同時波動性和所需資本較低，這使得安信龍的估值具有吸引力。我相信我們將繼續推動長期獲利成長並創造股東價值。

And with that, operator, please open the call for questions.

那麼，接線員，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is coming from Mark Hughes with Truist Securities.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。

Welcome Keith Meier. The BofA, congratulations on that. You say that the placement rate is going to be lower? Is the -- is that just because the placement rate on an underlying basis is lower? Or is that the actual premium and the covered homes are not being transferred over to you?

歡迎基斯·邁爾。美國銀行，對此表示祝賀。你說錄取率會更低？這只是因為基礎基礎上的安置率較低嗎？或者實際保費和承保房屋沒有轉移給您？

No. We're going to be picking up all of the loans and then all of the policies, but the placement rate on that particular block of business is just lower than the average. If you look at our current average, it's 1.8%. It will be south of that, just the nature of the loans and nature of the business. But to the more fundamental point, really excited about the opportunity and many years in the making and a huge congratulations to our lender-place team for doing an incredible job building a relationship and then obviously getting to this point is incredibly exciting and extremely validating.

不。我們將獲得所有貸款，然後是所有保單，但該特定業務領域的安置率僅低於平均水平。如果你看看我們目前的平均水平，它是 1.8%。其南邊就是貸款的性質和業務的性質。但從更根本的角度來看，我對這個機會和多年來的準備感到非常興奮，並對我們的貸方團隊在建立關係方面所做的令人難以置信的工作表示祝賀，然後顯然達到這一點是令人難以置信的令人興奮和極其有效的。

Yes. And then on the Homeowners business, the reserve -- or favorable reserve development was that just because Hurricane Ian turned out better than expected? Or is there -- are you seeing a fundamental change in underlying trends? It seems like the non-cat losses have been very favorable lately. Is it something we should view as sustainable?

是的。然後，在房主業務上，儲備金或有利的儲備金發展只是因為伊恩颶風的結果好於預期嗎？或者您看到潛在趨勢發生了根本性變化？最近非貓損失似乎非常有利。我們應該將其視為可持續的嗎？

Mark, this is Keith Meier. So I think the first thing I would say is the reserve -- the positive reserve development was more in relation to the higher inflationary environment that we had previously. Now that, that's more settled, that's what's really been the change in the estimates that our team has made there. So I think that was more the driver than any other type of weather activity or any other type of experience. So I think that was the key there.

馬克，這是基斯·梅爾。因此，我認為我要說的第一件事是準備金——準備金的積極發展更多地與我們之前所處的較高通膨環境有關。現在，情況已經更加確定了，這就是我們團隊所做的估計的真正變化。所以我認為這比任何其他類型的天氣活動或任何其他類型的體驗更具驅動力。所以我認為這是關鍵。

And then in terms of your question on the quarter, the way to think about that is, if you take out the prior year -- the prior period development and over the whole year, we basically are at about a 40% non-cat loss ratio. It's about 1 point better than last year. And then if you think about looking at 2024, we would see our non-cat loss ratio to be somewhat level to what we're seeing in 2023. So that's probably the way to think about our views on the non-cat loss ratio.

然後就你關於本季的問題而言，思考這個問題的方法是，如果你剔除上一年——前期的發展和全年的情況，我們基本上處於大約 40% 的非巨災損失比率。比去年好1分左右。然後，如果你考慮一下 2024 年，我們會發現我們的非巨災損失率與 2023 年的水平持平。因此，這可能是思考我們對非巨災損失率看法的方式。

And just 1 final thought. I mean modestly better in the quarter when you make the adjustment at 38%, but that's just normal seasonality, nothing we would really point to there, Mark.

最後還有一個想法。我的意思是，當你進行 38% 的調整時，本季的情況會稍微好一些，但這只是正常的季節性，我們不會真正指出這一點，馬克。

Yes. And if I could squeeze in 1 more. The fee income in Lifestyle was up substantially, much more so than the devices service. What was going on there?

是的。如果我能再擠進1個就好了。生活方式的費用收入大幅成長，遠高於設備服務。那裡發生了什麼事？

Yes. That's mainly the higher trade-in volumes that we have seen in the fourth quarter. So in the fourth quarter, we also saw the addition of to new programs. So 1 with 1 of the major OEMs and then also a program that cuts across several of our other clients, then that's also tempered a little bit by some of the promotional activity. But overall, we felt really good about the trade-in performance in the quarter.

是的。這主要是我們在第四季看到的較高的以舊換新量。所以在第四季度，我們也看到了新節目的增加。因此，與 1 個主要 OEM 合作，然後還有一個涉及我們其他幾個客戶的計劃，那麼這也透過一些促銷活動得到了一點緩和。但總的來說，我們對本季的以舊換新表現感覺非常好。

Our next question is coming from John Barnidge with Piper Sandler.

我們的下一個問題來自約翰·巴尼奇和派珀·桑德勒。

My first question, I know there was an expense reduction program in December '22, with full savings emerging in '24. Are you able to talk about geography of those savings that's supposed to merge in '24? And how you view a run rate global housing expense ratio?

我的第一個問題，我知道 22 年 12 月有一項費用削減計劃，並在 24 年實現全額節省。您能談談那些本應在 24 年合併的儲蓄的地理位置嗎？您如何看待全球住房費用比率的運作率？

Sure. So I think the -- it's a blend of both employee actions as well as some of our facilities that we've been able to gain some efficiencies on as well. But I think in terms of the expense efficiencies for Housing, we had a really, really strong year, and this has really been the story over the last couple of years, especially a lot of our technology investments and the work that we've done through our digital programs and really driving on even better customer experience.

當然。所以我認為——這是員工行動以及我們已經能夠提高效率的一些設施的結合。但我認為就住房的支出效率而言，我們度過了非常非常強勁的一年，這確實是過去幾年的故事，特別是我們的大量技術投資和我們所做的工作通過我們的數字計劃，真正推動更好的客戶體驗。

When you look at our expense ratio year-over-year, we're down 6 points from 46 to about 40. And so that really has been a story of a lot of our technology investments that we've been making. And I think that's what's enabling us to -- if you think into 2024, we should be able to take a lot more expense leverage with the growth we had in Housing, but not increasing our expenses in a corresponding way.

當你查看我們的費用率同比情況時，我們下降了 6 個百分點，從 46 降至 40 左右。這確實是我們一直在進行的大量技術投資的一個故事。我認為這使我們能夠——如果你考慮到 2024 年，我們應該能夠隨著住房的增長而採取更多的支出槓桿，但不會以相應的方式增加我們的支出。

So really proud of the work that our teams have done there to not just lower the cost, but also create advantages in the market. And I think when you think about the customer experience that we've been delivering, I think that's a great example of why a client like Bank of America would want to do business with Assurant. So I think those investments are paying off in multiple ways.

我們對我們的團隊所做的工作感到非常自豪，不僅降低了成本，而且還創造了市場優勢。我認為，當您考慮我們一直在提供的客戶體驗時，我認為這是一個很好的例子，說明了為什麼像美國銀行這樣的客戶希望與 Assurant 開展業務。所以我認為這些投資正在以多種方式獲得回報。

And on Auto input costs, can you maybe talk about the ability to recoup the elevated Auto input costs through contracted actions for '24? I think you talked about improvement expected this year.

關於汽車投入成本，您能否談談透過「24」的團結行動收回增加的汽車投入成本的能力？我想你談到了今年預期的改進。

Yes. So maybe I'll take that. And I think what I would say is there's a handful of clients and deal structures where we're feeling the pressure on the underwriting results, which we've talked about. We've made significant rate adjustments over the last 18 months or so with all 5 of these clients and feel really good about how we're positioned. I mean the relationships are incredibly strong. To your point, our contracts are built with transparency. We've got very much aligned interest in terms of financial performance. So we put a lot of rate in. We'll continue to look at performance, obviously, monitor claims activity.

是的。所以也許我會接受。我想我想說的是，有少數客戶和交易結構讓我們感受到了承保結果的壓力，我們已經討論過這一點。在過去 18 個月左右的時間裡，我們對所有 5 位客戶進行了重大費率調整，並且對我們的定位感到非常滿意。我的意思是，這些關係非常牢固。就您而言，我們的合約是透明製定的。我們對財務表現有著非常一致的興趣。因此，我們投入了大量資金。顯然，我們將繼續專注於績效，並監控索賠活動。

I would say that we saw things level off in the fourth quarter, which is a good sign. We've stabilized severity in the business. And then based on the nature of these service contracts, it takes a little longer for it to earn through than when you think about what happened within the housing business. Those are annual policies. These are 3-, 4-, 5-, 6-year policies. So it's a little bit different from that perspective. But I would say we feel really well positioned and certainly see improvement in '24, and that should continue to flow through in '25 and beyond.

我想說的是，我們看到第四季情況趨於平穩，這是一個好兆頭。我們已經穩定了業務的嚴峻性。然後，根據這些服務合約的性質，與住房行業內發生的情況相比，它需要更長的時間才能實現盈利。這些是年度政策。這些是 3 年、4 年、5 年、6 年期保單。所以從這個角度來看有點不同。但我想說，我們感覺自己處於有利位置，並且肯定會在 24 年看到進步，這應該會在 25 年及以後繼續發展。

Our next question is coming from Tommy McJoynt with KBW.

我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tommy McJoynt。

There's a -- it sounds like there's a couple of moving pieces related to the mobile side. So you called out some upcoming investments in that space, and you also have the onboarding of Telstra in Australia. Are you going to quantify some of the figures around that in terms of the investment cost, the onboarding costs and then what the run rate, either revenue or earnings contribution from Telstra could be? We're just trying to think about after the next 12 months sort of what the earnings power of that Connected Living mobile device business might look like?

聽起來有幾個與行動端相關的移動部分。因此，您提到了該領域即將進行的一些投資，並且澳洲電信 (Telstra) 也加入了。您是否打算量化投資成本、入職成本以及運行率（Telstra 的收入或盈利貢獻）方面的一些數字？我們只是想思考一下，未來 12 個月後，互聯生活行動裝置業務的獲利能力會是什麼樣子？

Yes, I'd probably offer a couple of thoughts. Obviously, it's a pretty exciting development. We're super proud of the team in Australia. And it's a great example of leveraging our capabilities and our global reach. It's going to roll out in phases. We expect to launch in the first quarter, and then there's a number of different phases to the rollout. So it will be, I would say, probably modestly EBITDA negative this year in terms of the investment to get that ramped up. Obviously, I would expect it to be significantly improved in -- certainly in '25 -- sorry, yes, in '25 over '24.

是的，我可能會提供一些想法。顯然，這是一個非常令人興奮的發展。我們為澳洲的團隊感到非常自豪。這是利用我們的能力和全球影響力的一個很好的例子。它將分階段推出。我們預計在第一季度推出，然後會有多個不同的階段來推出。因此，我想說，就增加投資而言，今年的 EBITDA 可能會出現適度的負值。顯然，我預計它會在 25 年（當然是 25 年）得到顯著改善，抱歉，是的，25 年比 24 年有顯著改善。

In terms of the size and scale of investments, so one thing I would say, Tommy, there's quite a bit of investment going on within Assurant. Certainly, we talked about BofA. But even just on the Lifestyle and Connected Living side, Telstra is 1 example. Obviously, we're talking about it publicly, but there are also a lot of other investments that we're making, building out capabilities, and we're in many, many discussions with different clients, different prospects about rolling out new products, new services. So I would say we probably have more investment going on even beyond Telstra within Connected Living this year than we would in a normal average year.

就投資規模而言，Tommy，我要說的是，Assurant 內部正在進行大量投資。當然，我們談到了美國銀行。但即使只是在生活方式和互聯生活方面，澳洲電信也是一個例子。顯然，我們正在公開談論它，但我們也正在進行許多其他投資，增強能力，並且我們正在與不同的客戶、不同的前景進行許多關於推出新產品的討論，新服務。因此，我想說，今年我們在互聯生活領域的投資甚至可能超過澳洲電信，比正常年份還要多。

When we talk about mid-single-digit growth for Lifestyle, you could probably think about the investment putting pressure on that by a few points. So it would be more in the high-single-digit range if we weren't making some of these what are, for us, significant investments in the future.

當我們談論生活方式的中個位數成長時，您可能會想到投資對其施加了幾個百分點的壓力。因此，如果我們不進行其中一些對我們來說是未來重大投資的投資，那麼這個數字將更多地處於高個位數範圍內。

Got it. I appreciate you quantifying some of those numbers. You also separately reported some pretty high net investment yields across the various business lines this quarter and even for the full year. Is there any upside to the net investment income from here? And what's the sensitivity of those various portfolios to potential rate cuts?

知道了。我很感謝您量化其中一些數字。您還分別報告了本季甚至全年各個業務線的相當高的淨投資收益率。這裡的淨投資收益有什麼上升空間嗎？這些不同的投資組合對潛在降息的敏感度如何？

Yes, Tommy. So I think, one, in terms of our expectations for next year, we see investment income being relatively flat to slightly up. We -- you mentioned the higher results for this quarter. We had our real estate joint venture sales so that contributed. We don't think we'll have as high of real estate sales into next year, but we do think it should be relatively positive going into next year. Right now, we've -- our portfolio book yield is at 4.99%, so just under 5%. New money rates will be a little bit higher than that. And so we do expect, as the year goes on, of course, the Fed is expected to reduce rates through the year. So depending on the timing of some of those rate changes, those will be kind of offsetting the increase that you saw this year.

是的，湯米。所以我認為，第一，就我們對明年的預期而言，我們認為投資收益相對持平或略有上升。我們—您提到了本季更高的業績。我們有房地產合資企業的銷售，因此做出了貢獻。我們認為明年的房地產銷售量不會那麼高，但我們確實認為明年的房地產銷售量應該相對積極。目前，我們的投資組合帳面收益率為 4.99%，略低於 5%。新貨幣利率將比這高一點。因此，我們確實預計，隨著時間的推移，聯準會預計將全年降息。因此，根據其中一些利率變化的時間，這些變化將在某種程度上抵消您今年看到的成長。

So overall, we think it will -- we're in a pretty good place from an investment income standpoint, but probably slightly up for next year.

因此，總的來說，我們認為從投資收入的角度來看，我們處於一個非常好的位置，但明年可能會略有上升。

Yes. And maybe Tommy, just to add a little bit more color on how I'm thinking about that. I mean, when you look at the overall guide for the year, we're overcoming $54 million of PYD in Housing. And then we don't have material tailwinds on investment income. It might be modestly positive, but not like what we saw this year. So obviously, being able to deliver strong growth on top of those 2 factors we feel really good about, along with the investments that I mentioned earlier.

是的。也許湯米，只是為了讓我的想法更添色彩。我的意思是，當你查看今年的總體指南時，我們將在住房方面克服 5400 萬美元的 PYD。然後我們就沒有對投資收入產生實質的推動作用。這可能是適度積極的，但不像我們今年看到的那樣。顯然，除了我們感到非常滿意的這兩個因素以及我之前提到的投資之外，能夠實現強勁成長。

Our next question is coming from Brian Meredith with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布萊恩梅雷迪思。

A couple of them here. First one, I'm just curious, Keith, you mentioned that Japan was going to be relatively flat this year. I'm just curious kind of how we should think about that with respect to the contract kind of changes that are going on? Is that kind of ending in 2024? Are there still pressures there, and you expect some growth? And then also on that, kind of maybe you can kind of tell us what your kind of baseline macro assumption is in your kind of outlook for 2024?

這裡有幾個。第一個，我只是好奇，基思，你提到日本今年將相對穩定。我只是好奇我們應該如何考慮正在發生的合約變化？這種情況會在 2024 年結束嗎？那裡仍然存在壓力嗎？您預計會有一些增長嗎？另外，您能否告訴我們您對 2024 年前景的基本宏觀假設是什麼？

Yes. Sure, Brian. And so starting with Japan, we mentioned the 4-year customer contracts that were running off and then the new contracts were evergreen. That's still going to be a bit of a pressure for us, not as much as '23, but there'll still be a pressure for us in '24. I think that is offset a little bit by some new structures and new programs that we have launched in Japan. So that's where that -- you'll see that moderating. And I think longer term, I feel even better about Japan, where, a few years ago, we only had a couple of relationships with the mobile carriers. Now you fast forward to today, we've got a business -- active business that we do with all of 4 top mobile operators.

是的。當然，布萊恩。因此，從日本開始，我們提到了即將到期的 4 年期客戶合同，然後新合約是常青的。這對我們來說仍然是一個壓力，不像23年那麼大，但24年對我們來說仍然會有壓力。我認為我們在日本推出的一些新結構和新計劃稍微抵消了這一影響。所以這就是——你會看到這種緩和。我認為從長遠來看，我對日本的感覺更好，幾年前，我們只與日本的行動電信商建立了一些關係。現在快進到今天，我們已經有了一項業務——我們與所有 4 家頂級行動電信商開展的活躍業務。

And so in our business, it's not easy to win big clients. But when you can be an existing partner already, and then be able to grow that relationship from there, I think that puts us in a very good relationship in why we have a lot of optimism for the future of Japan. But with some of those new programs coming up, I think that's what allowed us to feel like we've gotten past some of those headwinds from before.

因此，在我們的業務中，贏得大客戶並不容易。但是，當你已經成為現有的合作夥伴，然後能夠從那裡發展這種關係時，我認為這使我們建立了非常良好的關係，這就是為什麼我們對日本的未來非常樂觀。但隨著一些新項目的推出，我認為這讓我們感覺我們已經克服了以前的一些阻力。

Yes. And we certainly stabilized Japan here. If we look at the last couple of quarters, Q3 and Q4 in terms of the overall financial performance, so we feel good about that. And I would say, as we look forward to '24, expect to see some modest improvement over time. And then to Keith's point, longer term, still an exciting market for us.

是的。我們確實穩定了日本。如果我們看看過去幾季、第三季和第四季的整體財務表現，我們對此感覺良好。我想說的是，當我們展望 24 世紀時，預計隨著時間的推移會看到一些適度的改進。然後基思指出，從長遠來看，這對我們來說仍然是一個令人興奮的市場。

And in terms of the macroeconomic conditions, Brian, I don't think we're expecting anything significant. Obviously, we talked about interest rates and things like that. But beyond that, not -- there's nothing that's contemplated that's that significant.

就宏觀經濟狀況而言，布萊恩，我認為我們不會期待任何重大的事情。顯然，我們討論了利率之類的事情。但除此之外，沒有什麼是那麼重要的。

Great. And then 1 other just quick 1 here. On the BofA deal, I'm just -- I'm assuming your kind of guidance for cat load for this year includes the BofA deal?

偉大的。然後還有另外 1 個，這裡只是快速 1。關於美國銀行的交易，我只是－我假設你對今年巨額交易的指導包括美國銀行的交易？

Yes, it does.

是的，它確實。

Our final question is coming from Grace Carter with Bank of America.

我們的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Grace Carter。

It does appear we did lose Grace. One moment, please. It does appear that Grace has dropped off the call, gentlemen.

看來我們確實失去了格蕾絲。稍等一會兒。先生們，格蕾絲確實掛斷了電話。

No problem. All right. And that was the last question. Am I correct?

沒問題。好的。這是最後一個問題。我對麼？

That is correct, sir.

這是正確的，先生。

Wonderful. Okay. Well, we will call it a wrap for today, and we'll look forward to speaking to everybody again in May. And then, obviously, in the meantime, please feel free to reach out to our IR team, who will be happy to answer any questions that everybody has. But thanks very much, and we'll talk soon.

精彩的。好的。好了，今天就到此結束，我們期待在五月再次與大家交談。當然，與此同時，請隨時聯繫我們的 IR 團隊，他們將很樂意回答每個人提出的任何問題。但非常感謝，我們很快就會談。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。請此時斷開線路，祝您有美好的一天。