Assurant Inc (AIZ) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Assurant's Third Quarter 2023 Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 Assurant 2023 年第三季電話會議和網路廣播。 （操作員說明）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Suzanne Shepherd, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability. You may begin.

現在我很高興將發言權交給投資者關係和永續發展資深副總裁 Suzanne Shepherd。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our third quarter 2023 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant's conference call are Keith Demmings, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Richard Dziadzio, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。我們期待今天與您討論 2023 年第三季的業績。與我一起參加 Assurant 電話會議的是我們的總裁兼執行長 Keith Demmings；和我們的財務長 Richard Dziadzio。

Yesterday, after the market closed, we issued a news release announcing our results for the third quarter of 2023. The release and corresponding financial supplements are available on assurant.com. We'll start today's call with remarks from Keith and Richard before moving into a Q&A session.

昨天收盤後，我們發布了新聞稿，公佈了 2023 年第三季的業績。新聞稿和相應的財務補充資料可在 assurant.com 上取得。我們將以基斯和理查德的演講開始今天的電話會議，然後進入問答環節。

Some of the statements made today are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements are based upon our historical performance and current expectations and subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements. Additional information regarding these factors can be found in yesterday's earnings release and financial supplement as well as in our SEC reports.

今天發表的一些聲明具有前瞻性。前瞻性陳述是基於我們的歷史績效和當前預期，並受到風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響，這些因素可能導致實際結果與這些陳述預期的結果有重大差異。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊可以在昨天的收益發布和財務補充以及我們的 SEC 報告中找到。

During today's call, we will refer to our non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance. For more details on these measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the two, please refer to yesterday's news release and financial supplements.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考我們的非公認會計準則財務指標，我們認為這些指標對於評估公司表現非常重要。有關這些措施、最具可比性的公認會計準則措施以及兩者的調節的更多詳細信息，請參閱昨天的新聞稿和財務補充材料。

It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Keith.

現在我很高興將電話轉給基斯。

Thanks, Suzanne, and good morning, everyone. We're very pleased with the exceptionally strong results we achieved in the third quarter with adjusted EBITDA, excluding catastrophes, growing nearly 50% year-over-year or 19% on a year-to-date basis, both ahead of our expectations.

謝謝，蘇珊娜，大家早安。我們對第三季度取得的異常強勁的業績感到非常滿意，調整後的 EBITDA（不包括災難因素）同比增長近 50%，年初至今增長 19%，均超出我們的預期。

Our results were largely driven by continued momentum in Global Housing and our steadfast focus on executing our strategy, including driving innovation, creating efficiencies and strengthening our global partnerships. These efforts have positioned us to exceed our previous expectations of high single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth, excluding catastrophes.

我們的業績在很大程度上得益於全球住房的持續發展勢頭以及我們堅定不移地執行我們的策略，包括推動創新、提高效率和加強我們的全球合作夥伴關係。這些努力使我們超出了先前對調整後 EBITDA 高個位數成長（不包括災難）的預期。

We now expect adjusted EBITDA growth of mid- to high-teens. Our year-to-date performance highlights Assurant's competitive differentiators, including our advantaged Global Housing and Global Lifestyle businesses that have proven leadership positions with scale and significant cash generation. Combined, these businesses are extending Assurant's track record of strong financial performance, thanks in part to the swift actions we've taken across our global operations to improve results and strengthen the business given broader macroeconomic headwinds.

我們現在預計調整後的 EBITDA 成長率將達到中雙位數至高雙位數。我們今年迄今為止的業績突顯了安信龍的競爭優勢，包括我們優勢的全球住房和全球生活方式業務，這些業務憑藉規模和可觀的現金流創造了公認的領導地位。這些業務結合起來，延續了安信龍強勁的財務業績記錄，部分歸功於我們在全球業務中採取的迅速行動，以改善業績並在更廣泛的宏觀經濟逆風下加強業務。

We continue to realize benefits from the actions we announced in 2022 to simplify our business and corporate real estate and realign our organizational structure, allowing us to reinvest throughout the enterprise. We extended our 2022 restructuring plan to include additional actions across the enterprise as we believe further enhancing Assurant's operational efficiency will support our long-term profitable growth and value creation.

我們繼續從 2022 年宣布的行動中獲益，這些行動旨在簡化我們的業務和企業房地產，並重新調整我們的組織結構，使我們能夠對整個企業進行再投資。我們延長了 2022 年重組計劃，納入了整個企業的其他行動，因為我們相信進一步提高安信龍的營運效率將支持我們的長期獲利成長和價值創造。

We now expect total restructuring costs associated with our extended plan to be between $90 million and $95 million pretax, above our previously announced expectations of $60 million to $65 million.

我們現在預計與擴展計劃相關的總重組成本將在稅前 9,000 萬美元至 9,500 萬美元之間，高於我們先前宣布的 6,000 萬美元至 6,500 萬美元的預期。

Looking at our business segments. In Global Housing, I want to thank all of our employees who supported policyholders impacted by Hurricane Idalia and the Hawaii wildfires, as well as several other significant weather events during the quarter.

看看我們的業務部門。在全球住房方面，我要感謝所有為受颶風伊達利亞和夏威夷野火以及本季其他重大天氣事件影響的保單持有人提供支援的員工。

Assurant plays a critical role in safeguarding our policyholders and supporting the U.S. mortgage industry. Our Global Housing adjusted EBITDA, excluding cats, more than doubled year-over-year and increased 72% year-to-date, led by significant growth in our homeowners business through top line growth and improving loss experience.

Assurant 在保護我們的保單持有人和支持美國抵押貸款行業方面發揮著至關重要的作用。我們的全球住房調整後 EBITDA（不包括貓）同比增長了一倍以上，年初至今增長了 72%，這得益於我們的房主業務通過收入增長和損失體驗改善而實現的顯著增長。

Our ability to quickly execute changes, particularly in our lender-placed business, has helped us gain earnings momentum from higher in-force policies, average insured values and state-approved rate increases following inflation impacts in 2022.

我們快速執行變革的能力，特別是在貸款人安排的業務中，幫助我們從更高的有效保單、平均保險價值和國家批准的 2022 年通膨影響後的利率上調中獲得了盈利動力。

Our performance so far this year highlights Global Housing's compelling and uniquely positioned portfolio. Year-to-date, including $89 million of reportable catastrophes, our combined ratio is 82% and our annualized ROE is 29%, demonstrating strong returns and cash generation.

我們今年迄今的業績凸顯了 Global Housing 引人注目且定位獨特的投資組合。年初至今，包括 8,900 萬美元的可報告災難在內，我們的綜合成本率為 82%，年化淨資產收益率為 29%，顯示出強勁的回報和現金產生能力。

In our Renters business, we saw continued strength in our property management channel, where policies in-force have grown double digits this year. We continue to win new clients, grow existing partnerships and release new capabilities, including our upgraded leasing agent portal and digital insurance tracking enhancements.

在我們的租屋業務中，我們看到物業管理管道的持續強勁，今年該通路的有效政策成長了兩位數。我們繼續贏得新客戶，發展現有合作夥伴關係並發布新功能，包括升級的租賃代理入口網站和數位保險追蹤增強功能。

We're very pleased with Global Housing's strong performance year-to-date, which reflects our focused execution around streamlined product lines where we have a clear competitive advantage and scale.

我們對 Global Housing 今年迄今的強勁表現感到非常滿意，這反映出我們專注於精簡產品線的執行，在這些產品線中我們擁有明顯的競爭優勢和規模。

Turning to Global Lifestyle. Third quarter earnings increased 7% year-over-year or 14% excluding a onetime client benefit within Connected Living last year. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA down 6% versus the same period in '22 has continued to improve throughout the year and is tracking in line with our expectations of a modest decline for the full year.

轉向全球生活方式。第三季獲利年增 7%，不包括去年互聯生活中的一次性客戶福利，成長 14%。年初至今，調整後 EBITDA 較 2022 年同期下降 6%，全年持續改善，符合我們對全年小幅下降的預期。

Within Connected Living, we continue to support long-term growth through the development of innovative offerings for our partners. U.S. Connected Living is poised for another year of solid growth, particularly within our mobile protection business, a testament to our breadth of innovative offerings, customer experience expertise and deep relationships with mobile carriers and cable operators.

在互聯生活領域，我們繼續透過為合作夥伴開發創新產品來支持長期成長。 U.S. Connected Living 預計將迎來另一年的穩健成長，特別是在我們的行動保護業務方面，這證明了我們廣泛的創新產品、客戶體驗專業知識以及與行動營運商和有線電視營運商的深厚關係。

As macroeconomic headwinds have persisted, including impacts from inflation, we've taken decisive action across our global operations to mitigate these impacts. In Europe, expense actions have allowed us to stabilize earnings as we focus on critical opportunities to grow our top line. We also continue to invest to advance product innovation and anticipate our clients' needs as well as improve customer experience through expanded service delivery capabilities. For example, as part of the extension of our '22 plan to realize benefits and simplify our business in corporate real estate, we're consolidating our mobile device care centers into 2 sites in the U.S.

由於宏觀經濟逆風持續存在，包括通貨膨脹的影響，我們在全球業務中採取了果斷行動，以減輕這些影響。在歐洲，費用行動使我們能夠穩定收益，因為我們專注於增加收入的關鍵機會。我們也持續投資推動產品創新，預測客戶的需求，並透過擴大服務交付能力來改善客戶體驗。例如，作為擴展 '22 計劃的一部分，以實現效益並簡化我們在企業房地產方面的業務，我們正在將我們的行動裝置護理中心整合到美國的 2 個地點。

We'll move the services currently offered in York, Pennsylvania to our existing facility in Texas. Over time, we'll be investing in a new site in Nashville, where we can leverage a strong talent market and greater logistics efficiencies as we evolve with emerging clients.

我們將把目前在賓州約克市提供的服務轉移到我們在德州的現有設施。隨著時間的推移，我們將在納許維爾投資一個新地點，隨著我們與新興客戶的發展，我們可以利用強大的人才市場和更高的物流效率。

Turning to our Global Auto business. We're beginning to see initial signs of claims improvement, as a result of the decisive actions taken over the last year to improve performance. These actions included implementing rate increases on new policies across impacted clients and advancing opportunities to improve loss experience for programs where we hold the risk. We continue to monitor claims costs closely and expect improvement will be gradual over time given the way the auto business earns.

轉向我們的全球汽車業務。由於去年為提高業績而採取的果斷行動，我們開始看到索賠改善的初步跡象。這些行動包括對受影響的客戶實施新保單的費率提高，以及為我們承擔風險的專案提供改善損失體驗的機會。我們將繼續密切監控索賠成本，考慮到汽車業務的獲利方式，預計隨著時間的推移，索賠成本將逐步改善。

In auto, we launched Assurant Vehicle Care at over 500 dealers. Building on decades of proprietary data on cost of claims, Assurant Vehicle Care is a comprehensive new suite of vehicle protection products. It was developed to help our dealer partners optimize product design, pricing, training and sales to ultimately enhance attachment and economics. For the consumer, Assurant Vehicle Care provides a digital experience with more vehicle coverage, flexibility and transparency.

在汽車領域，我們向 500 多家經銷商推出了 Assurant 車輛護理服務。 Assurant 車輛護理以數十年的索賠成本專有數據為基礎，是一套全面的新型車輛保護產品。它的開發是為了幫助我們的經銷商合作夥伴優化產品設計、定價、培訓和銷售，最終提高依戀度和經濟效益。對於消費者來說，Assurant Vehicle Care 提供了具有更多車輛覆蓋範圍、靈活性和透明度的數位體驗。

Now let's turn to our enterprise outlook and capital. Given our year-to-date results and our business outlook for the remainder of 2023, we now expect adjusted EBITDA to grow mid- to high-teens, excluding catastrophes. Adjusted EPS growth is now expected to exceed adjusted EBITDA growth, each excluding catastrophes. This is primarily due to higher earnings growth that now more than offsets the increase in depreciation expense.

現在我們來談談我們的企業觀和資本。鑑於我們今年迄今的業績和 2023 年剩餘時間的業務前景，我們現在預計調整後的 EBITDA 將成長到中位數至高位數（不包括災難因素）。目前預計調整後每股盈餘成長將超過調整後 EBITDA 成長（均不包括災難）。這主要是由於較高的盈利增長現在足以抵消折舊費用的增加。

From a capital perspective, we upstreamed $202 million of segment dividends during the third quarter and $493 million year-to-date. We ended the third quarter with $491 million of holding company liquidity consistent with the end of the second quarter.

從資本角度來看，我們在第三季支付了 2.02 億美元的分部股息，今年迄今支付了 4.93 億美元。第三季末，我們的控股公司流動資金為 4.91 億美元，與第二季末持平。

In terms of share repurchases, during the third quarter, repurchases totaled $50 million. This brings our total repurchases to approximately $100 million for the year, including an additional $30 million of shares purchased through the end of October. Based on our strong year-to-date results, we expect fourth quarter buybacks to accelerate from third quarter levels and to be approximately $200 million for the year, consistent with our underlying repurchase activity in 2022. We're pleased with our strong capital position, which affords us more long-term flexibility over time.

在股票回購方面，第三季回購總額為5,000萬美元。這使得我們今年的回購總額達到約 1 億美元，其中包括截至 10 月底額外購買的 3,000 萬美元股票。根據我們今年迄今的強勁業績，我們預計第四季度的回購將從第三季的水平開始加速，全年回購規模約為2 億美元，這與我們2022 年的基本回購活動一致。我們對我們強勁的資本狀況感到滿意，隨著時間的推移，這為我們提供了更多的長期靈活性。

Looking to 2024, we expect a more modest level of earnings growth in Global Housing, excluding catastrophes, building on strong 2023 financial results, which included $40 million of favorable prior year reserve development.

展望 2024 年，我們預計，在 2023 年強勁的財務業績（包括上一年 4000 萬美元的有利儲備開發）的基礎上，排除災難因素，全球住房收入增長水平將更為溫和。

In Global Lifestyle, we expect earnings growth to be led by Connected Living, particularly in the U.S. from the expansion of current programs, as we work to gradually improve the auto business, which we will continue to manage closely.

在全球生活方式方面，我們預計互聯生活將引領盈利增長，特別是在美國，由於我們正在努力逐步改善汽車業務，我們將繼續密切管理汽車業務，因此當前計劃的擴展將在美國尤其如此。

From a capital perspective, we're committed to maintaining flexibility for our strong balance sheet and deploying capital for share repurchases and opportunistic acquisitions to support our growth objectives. We will share our 2024 outlook in February, factoring in our fourth quarter earnings, business trends as well as the latest forecast of the macro environment for the year.

從資本角度來看，我們致力於維持強勁資產負債表的靈活性，並部署資本進行股票回購和機會性收購，以支持我們的成長目標。我們將在 2 月分享 2024 年展望，考慮到我們第四季度的盈利、業務趨勢以及對今年宏觀環境的最新預測。

In the near term, we're focused on achieving our 2023 objectives and setting a path for continued growth and value creation in 2024 and beyond. As we look ahead, we remain committed to execution, innovation and enhancing the customer experience for our clients and their end consumers, particularly as we look to capitalize on growth opportunities while supporting continued momentum.

短期內，我們的重點是實現 2023 年的目標，並為 2024 年及以後的持續成長和價值創造制定道路。展望未來，我們仍然致力於執行、創新並增強客戶及其最終消費者的客戶體驗，特別是當我們希望利用成長機會同時支持持續成長動能時。

Before I turn the call over to Richard to review the third quarter results and our 2023 outlook in greater detail. I want to once again thank our employees for their hard work and dedication to deliver for our clients.

在我將電話轉給理查德之前，請他更詳細地回顧第三季業績和我們 2023 年的前景。我想再次感謝我們的員工為客戶服務的辛勤工作和奉獻精神。

Our company was recently recognized as one of TIME's best companies in the world, highlighting Assurant's strong employee satisfaction, revenue growth and sustainability efforts. Assurant was also recognized by Newsweek as one of America's greatest companies. Demonstrating our commitment to and progress in operating more sustainably.

我們公司最近被《時代》雜誌評為全球最佳公司之一，突顯了 Assurant 強大的員工滿意度、收入成長和永續發展努力。安信龍也被《新聞周刊》評為美國最偉大的公司之一。展示我們對更永續營運的承諾和進展。

The recognition was timely as we recently introduced Carbon IQ by Assurant. This offering enables clients to see the carbon impact of each device, including new and refurbished devices and provides them with estimated CO2 emissions throughout the supply chain and life cycle to identify opportunities for reduction.

這項認可是及時的，因為我們最近推出了 Assurant 的 Carbon IQ。該產品使客戶能夠了解每台設備（包括新設備和翻新設備）的碳影響，並為他們提供整個供應鏈和生命週期中二氧化碳排放量的估計值，以確定減少的機會。

We're honored to be recognized for our outstanding culture, products and sustainability all of which help us better serve our clients. And now over to Richard.

我們很榮幸因我們傑出的文化、產品和永續發展而獲得認可，所有這些都有助於我們更好地為客戶服務。現在輪到理查。

Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. For the third quarter of 2023, adjusted EBITDA, excluding reportable catastrophes, totaled $357 million, up $118 million or nearly 50% year-over-year. Adjusted earnings per share, excluding reportable catastrophes, totaled $4.68 for the quarter, delivering year-over-year growth of 67%.

謝謝基思，大家早安。 2023 年第三季度，不包括可報告災難的調整後 EBITDA 總計 3.57 億美元，年增 1.18 億美元，成長近 50%。排除可報告的災難因素，該季度調整後每股收益總計 4.68 美元，年增 67%。

To review results in greater detail, let's start with Global Lifestyle. The segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $192 million in the third quarter, an increase of $12 million or 7% year-over-year. As a reminder, prior period results included a onetime client benefit of $11 million within Connected Living. Excluding the prior period gain, Global Lifestyle's adjusted EBITDA increased 14% or $24 million.

為了更詳細地回顧結果，讓我們從全球生活方式開始。該部門第三季調整後 EBITDA 為 1.92 億美元，年增 1,200 萬美元，成長 7%。提醒一下，上期業績包括 Connected Living 中 1,100 萬美元的一次性客戶收益。不計上期收益，Global Lifestyle 調整後 EBITDA 成長 14%，即 2,400 萬美元。

This increase was primarily driven by higher contributions from investment income and mobile growth. Connected Living earnings increased $30 million or 32% excluding the onetime client benefit, demonstrating strong mobile growth from North American device protection programs from carrier and cable operator clients and better trade-in performance.

這一成長主要是由於投資收入和行動成長的貢獻增加。在扣除一次性客戶收益後，互聯生活收入增加了 3000 萬美元，即 32%，這表明來自運營商和有線運營商客戶的北美設備保護計劃帶來的強勁移動增長以及更好的以舊換新業績。

Financial Services also contributed to the growth. Trading results benefited from improved margins related to higher sales prices for used devices, partially offset by lower volumes, impacted by the timing and structure of carrier promotions.

金融服務也對成長做出了貢獻。交易結果受益於二手設備銷售價格上漲帶來的利潤率提高，但部分被營運商促銷時間和結構影響的銷售下降所抵消。

In Europe, we stabilized performance through expense actions, mitigating the impact of headwinds that began in the second half of 2022. In Japan, results were impacted by subscriber decline which is expected to continue into 2024.

在歐洲，我們透過費用行動穩定了業績，減輕了 2022 年下半年開始的不利因素的影響。在日本，業績受到用戶下降的影響，預計這種情況將持續到 2024 年。

Global Auto adjusted EBITDA declined $6 million or 8%. Results continue to be impacted by inflation of labor and parts leading to higher average claims costs. As expected, claims experience for auto ancillary products has also contributed to higher incurred claims costs in the quarter.

全球汽車調整後 EBITDA 下降 600 萬美元，或 8%。結果繼續受到勞動力和零件通膨的影響，導致平均索賠成本上升。如預期，汽車配套產品的理賠經驗也導致本季理賠成本上升。

The auto earnings decline was partially offset by an increase in investment income from higher yields and asset values.

汽車獲利的下降被較高的收益率和資產價值所帶來的投資收入的增加所部分抵消。

Turning to net earned premiums, fees and other income. Lifestyle was up by $83 million or 4%. This growth was primarily driven by Global Automotive, reflecting an increase of 6% from prior period sales of vehicle service contracts. Connected Living's net earned premiums, fees and other income increased 3%. Growth was muted by the previously disclosed mobile program contract changes of approximately $55 million with no corresponding impact to profitability. Excluding the impact of these contract changes, Connected Living's net earned premiums, fees and other income grew by 8%.

轉向淨賺保費、費用和其他收入。生活方式增長了 8,300 萬美元，即 4%。這一成長主要由 Global Automotive 推動，反映出車輛服務合約銷售額較上期成長 6%。 Connected Living 的淨保費、費用和其他收入增加了 3%。先前披露的約 5500 萬美元的行動項目合約變更導致成長放緩，但對獲利能力沒有相應影響。排除這些合約變更的影響，Connected Living 的淨賺取保費、費用和其他收入增加了 8%。

The quarter benefited from higher prices on used mobile devices and modest growth in North America mobile subscribers, excluding ongoing client runoff.

該季度受益於二手行動裝置價格上漲以及北美行動用戶的溫和成長（不包括持續的客戶流失）。

Turning to the full year 2023. We continue to expect Lifestyle's adjusted EBITDA to decline modestly. Global Auto will be down for the full year from unfavorable loss experience, including the impacts from continued normalization for select ancillary products previously mentioned. We've taken decisive actions this year in response to higher claims experience in our auto book, including prospective rate increases and repair cost reduction. While we've seen some improvement, the improvement is expected to take place over a longer period of time given the earnings pattern of the business.

展望 2023 年全年。我們繼續預期 Lifestyle 的調整後 EBITDA 將小幅下降。由於不利的損失經歷，包括前面提到的特定輔助產品持續正常化的影響，全球汽車公司全年業績將下降。今年，我們採取了果斷行動，以應對汽車索賠中較高的索賠經驗，包括提高預期費率和降低維修成本。雖然我們已經看到了一些改善，但鑑於該業務的盈利模式，預計這種改善將在更長的時間內發生。

In Connected Living, we expect our U.S. business to grow for the full year. Overall, we are pleased with Lifestyle's strong third quarter performance, especially in light of ongoing challenges in auto claims. For the fourth quarter, we expect higher trade-in volumes in mobile, but we also expect ongoing top line challenges in Japan and Europe and investments to support business growth. In terms of full year net earned premiums, fees and other income, Lifestyle is expected to grow consistent with year-to-date trends.

在互聯生活方面，我們預計美國業務將全年實現成長。總體而言，我們對 Lifestyle 第三季的強勁表現感到滿意，特別是考慮到汽車索賠方面持續面臨的挑戰。對於第四季度，我們預計行動領域的以舊換新量將會增加，但我們也預期日本和歐洲將面臨持續的營收挑戰以及支持業務成長的投資。就全年淨賺保費、費用和其他收入而言，生活方式預計將與年初至今的趨勢保持一致。

Moving to Global Housing. Adjusted EBITDA was $165 million, which included $26 million in reportable catastrophes, primarily from Hurricane Idalia and Hawaii wildfires. Excluding reportable catastrophes, adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $191 million, with an increase of $106 million.

轉向全球住房。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.65 億美元，其中包括 2,600 萬美元的可通報災難，主要來自颶風伊達利亞和夏威夷野火。排除可通報的災難，調整後的 EBITDA 成長了一倍多，達到 1.91 億美元，增加了 1.06 億美元。

Housing performance was mainly led by 3 main items: First, continued top line growth in homeowners from higher premium rates and average insured values in lender-placed as well as an increase in the number of in-force policies. Second, favorable non-cat loss experience across the segment, including a year-over-year positive impact of $39 million related to prior period reserve development. This was comprised of $15 million of reserve reductions in the current quarter compared to reserve strengthening of $24 million in the prior period.

住房表現主要由三個主要因素帶動：首先，由於保費率和貸方平均保險價值的提高以及有效保單數量的增加，房主的收入持續增長。其次，整個部門的非巨災損失經驗良好，包括與上期準備金開發相關的 3,900 萬美元的年比正面影響。其中包括本季準備金減少 1,500 萬美元，而上一季準備金增加 2,400 萬美元。

And lastly, additional scale within our homeowners expense base ultimately driving stronger operating leverage. Higher investment income also contributed to earnings growth for homeowners.

最後，我們的房主支出基礎的擴大規模最終將推動更強的營運槓桿。較高的投資收入也促進了房主收入的成長。

For Renters and Others, earnings grew modestly from favorable prior period reserve development. Growth within the property management channel was offset by softer affinity channel volumes. For the full year 2023, we expect Global Housing adjusted EBITDA, excluding reportable cats, to grow significantly due to the strong homeowners performance, driven by top line expansion in lender-placed and favorable non-cat loss experience.

對於租戶和其他人來說，由於前期儲備金的良好發展，收益略有增長。物業管理管道的成長被親和力管道數量的疲軟所抵消。對於2023 年全年，我們預計全球住房調整後EBITDA（不包括應報告的巨災）將大幅增長，原因是房主表現強勁，而貸方安置的收入擴張和有利的非巨災損失經驗推動了這一增長。

In the fourth quarter, we expect higher expenses to support business growth. In addition, the third quarter included $15 million of favorable prior period development.

在第四季度，我們預計更高的費用將支持業務成長。此外，第三季還包括 1,500 萬美元的前期開發成果。

Moving to corporate. The third quarter adjusted EBITDA loss was $26 million, representing a modest year-over-year increase, mainly related to higher employee expenses. For the full year 2023, we continue to expect the corporate adjusted EBITDA loss to approximate $105 million.

轉向企業。第三季調整後 EBITDA 虧損為 2,600 萬美元，較去年同期小幅成長，主要與員工費用增加有關。對於 2023 年全年，我們仍然預期公司調整後 EBITDA 損失約為 1.05 億美元。

Turning to holding company liquidity. We ended the quarter with $491 million and dividends from our operating segments totaled $202 million. In addition to cash used for corporate and interest expenses, third quarter cash outflows included 3 items, $50 million of share repurchases, $37 million for common stock dividends and $50 million to complete the repayment of our September 2023 notes.

轉向控股公司的流動性。本季結束時，我們的利潤為 4.91 億美元，營運部門的股息總額為 2.02 億美元。除了用於公司和利息支出的現金外，第三季現金流出還包括3 個項目，即5000 萬美元的股票回購、3700 萬美元的普通股股息以及5000 萬美元的完成2023 年9 月票據的償還。

As Keith mentioned, given our year-to-date performance and outlook for the year as well as the strength of Assurant's balance sheet, we expect to achieve full year share repurchases of approximately $200 million.

正如基思所提到的，考慮到我們今年迄今的業績和展望以及安信龍資產負債表的實力，我們預計全年將實現約 2 億美元的股票回購。

For the full year, we continue to expect our businesses to generate meaningful cash flows, approximating 65% of segment adjusted EBITDA, including reportable catastrophes. Cash flow expectations assume a continuation of the current economic environment and are subject to the growth of the businesses, investment portfolio performance and rating agency and regulatory requirements.

對於全年，我們繼續預期我們的業務將產生有意義的現金流，約佔部門調整後 EBITDA 的 65%，包括可報告的災難。現金流量預期假設當前經濟環境持續存在，並受到業務成長、投資組合績效以及評級機構和監管要求的影響。

In closing, through the resilience of our unique business model, the decisive management actions taken and our intense client focus, we are confident in our ability to achieve the higher full year objectives we have outlined today.

最後，透過我們獨特的業務模式的彈性、採取的果斷的管理行動以及我們對客戶的強烈關注，我們對實現今天提出的更高的全年目標充滿信心。

And with that, operator, please open the call for questions.

那麼，接線員，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question is coming from the line of Mark Hughes of Truist.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自 Truist 的 Mark Hughes。

Keith, Richard, I really like this housing business, and I'm glad you didn't listen to those people who said you should divest it. Little (inaudible). On the housing business, increased policy count, how much of that is coming from, say, voluntary versus some uptick perhaps in the delinquencies or foreclosures or REO?

基斯、理查德，我真的很喜歡這個房地產業務，我很高興你們沒有聽那些說你們應該剝離它的人的話。很少（聽不清楚）。在住房業務方面，保單數量的增加，其中有多少來自自願，而不是拖欠、喪失抵押品贖回權或 REO 的增加？

Yes. I'd say, first of all, yes, we're pretty excited about the results in housing and it's tremendous amount of work by the team in the last year, and it's really showing through here the last few quarters, and we're building a lot of momentum.

是的。我想說，首先，是的，我們對住房方面的成果感到非常興奮，去年團隊做了大量的工作，在過去的幾個季度中確實體現了這一點，我們正在建立很大的動力。

I would say very little of the policy growth relates to the underlying economy or REO at all. We're really seeing no change in placement rate based on economic conditions, maybe a little bit of increase in policy count in a state like California, I'd say very modest, but a bit of a harder market. So we're seeing a little bit of growth there. Florida, basically flat year-to-date. So most of the growth is clients and client loan-related mix and nothing yet in terms of the broader economy.

我想說，政策成長與基礎經濟或 REO 的關係微乎其微。我們確實沒有看到基於經濟狀況的安置率發生變化，在像加州這樣的州，政策數量可能會增加，我想說的是非常溫和，但市場有點困難。所以我們看到了一些成長。佛羅裡達州，年初至今已基本持平。因此，大部分成長來自於客戶和客戶貸款相關的組合，而就更廣泛的經濟而言，還沒有任何成長。

What's your sense of the opportunity for sustained momentum, say, in higher values or higher rate? Has that activity peaked perhaps? Or is there still some way to go on both those fronts?

您對持續動力（例如更高價值或更高利率）的機會有何看法？該活動可能已經達到頂峰了嗎？或者這兩方面還有什麼路可走嗎？

Yes. I mean, obviously, we work on rates related to that product line consistently state by state. We also have, as you know, the average insured value adjustment that we do in the summer every year. And obviously, last summer, we put a meaningful double-digit increase into average insured values. This year, it was just over 3%, 3.1% that went into July.

是的。我的意思是，顯然，我們一直在按州制定與該產品線相關的費率。如您所知，我們每年夏季都會進行平均保險價值調整。顯然，去年夏天，我們將平均保險價值實現了兩位數的有意義的成長。今年，這一數字剛超過 3%，進入 7 月為 3.1%。

And then state by state, based on historical performance and expected costs, we continue to work with states. I feel like we still have momentum running through the portfolio. We haven't -- certainly haven't topped out in terms of the impact from the rate adjustments. But we do see it tapering and slowing. Certainly, as we think about Q4 as we head into 2024.

然後，根據歷史表現和預期成本，我們繼續與各州合作。我覺得我們的投資組合仍然有動力。就利率調整的影響而言，我們當然還沒有達到頂峰。但我們確實看到它在逐漸減少和放緩。當然，當我們進入 2024 年時，我們會想到第四季。

But year-to-date, feel good with where our loss ratios sit. In housing, we're 42% non-cat loss ratio if you adjust for prior period development, very consistent with where we were last year. So we feel like the rates that we have are certainly appropriate. And as we see impacts on cost of claims will modify as we go forward.

但今年迄今為止，我們對損失率的狀況感到滿意。在住房方面，如果對前期開發進行調整，我們的非貓損失率為 42%，這與去年的情況非常一致。所以我們覺得我們的費率當然是合適的。正如我們所看到的，隨著我們的前進，對索賠成本的影響將會改變。

Then one final one. Your fee income was up in Lifestyle, your devices service were down 20%-plus. I think you mentioned the higher value per device. Anything else contributing to that, just the divergence between the fee income and the device fee service?

然後是最後一張。您的生活方式費用收入增加了，您的設備服務下降了 20% 以上。我認為您提到了每台設備的更高價值。除了費用收入和設備費用服務之間的差異之外，還有其他因素造成這種情況嗎？

Yes. So if we think about that year-over-year, certainly, volumes are down. We saw softer promotional activity in the third quarter, not out of alignment with what we expected. We did see a pickup in the back half of September, obviously, after new product introduction by Apple. So hopefully, that sets us up with what we'd expect in the fourth quarter to be an improvement there.

是的。因此，如果我們逐年考慮，銷量肯定會下降。我們看到第三季的促銷活動較為疲軟，這與我們的預期並沒有不一致。顯然，在蘋果推出新產品之後，我們確實在 9 月下旬看到了回升。因此，希望這能讓我們在第四季取得進步。

And as I look at that business, we've done a really nice job in driving operational efficiency and automation to continue to improve the efficiency with which we operate. And then as you said, we've gotten higher sale prices when we're selling devices and obviously, we derive revenue based on how well we sell devices in the secondary market. But I'd say there's not much else to report.

當我審視該業務時，我們在提高營運效率和自動化方面做得非常好，以繼續提高我們的營運效率。然後，正如您所說，當我們銷售設備時，我們獲得了更高的銷售價格，顯然，我們的收入取決於我們在二級市場上銷售設備的情況。但我想說沒有什麼好報告的。

Profitability, a little bit stronger. But if you'll remember, third quarter last year, we had a bit of a mismatch between expenses and revenue. So Q3 trading results were a little bit depressed last year.

獲利能力，強一點點。但如果你還記得的話，去年第三季度，我們的支出和收入之間存在一些不匹配。所以去年第三季的交易結果有點低迷。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Schmitt of William Blair.

你的下一個問題來自威廉布萊爾的傑夫施密特。

Back to growth in Global Housing. So PFO growth was 23% in the quarter. And I'm just trying to think through the components. You had mentioned inflation guard was 3%, I think, in June or July, but I guess 12% last year. So maybe kind of a mix there earning through. What's rate at? How much was the rate component? And how much was the unit growth component? I'm just trying to think of the different parts there.

回到全球住房的成長。因此，本季 PFO 成長率為 23%。我只是想仔細考慮各個組成部分。我想，你曾提到 6 月或 7 月的通膨率是 3%，但去年我猜是 12%。所以也許是一種混合收入。費率是多少？利率部分是多少？單位增長成分是多少？我只是想想想那裡的不同部分。

Yes. So maybe I can start and then certainly, Richard can jump in. Obviously, when you look at Housing's revenue year-over-year, it's up meaningfully, $100 million, $103 million year-over-year. All of that is from growth in homeowners, which is up 31% year-over-year in terms of revenue.

是的。所以也許我可以開始，然後理查德當然可以加入。顯然，當你看看Housing的收入同比時，它顯著增長，同比1億美元、1.03億美元。所有這一切都來自房主數量的增長，就收入而言，房主數量同比增長 31%。

If we think about what's driving the performance from an underlying EBITDA perspective and Richard obviously talked about the prior period development. If you adjust the development, $15 million this year against adverse development last year of '24, we still see a $67 million increase in our underlying EBITDA.

如果我們從基本的 EBITDA 角度考慮是什麼推動了業績，理查德顯然談到了前期的發展。如果你根據去年 24 年的不利發展調整今年 1500 萬美元的發展，我們仍然會看到我們的基本 EBITDA 增加了 6700 萬美元。

And I would say 2/3 of that is really driven by rates average insured values, which obviously play together, and then relatively stable losses related to higher levels of premium rolling through. And then the balance, maybe 1/3 is split between policy growth, which is up 3.5% year-over-year and then investment income, which is obviously helping with cash yields and more assets being held. But Richard, happy to have you add any other detail.

我想說，其中 2/3 確實是由費率平均保險價值驅動的，這顯然是共同作用的，然後是與較高水平的保費滾動相關的相對穩定的損失。然後，餘額中的 1/3 可能會分配給政策成長（年增 3.5%）和投資收益（這顯然有助於提高現金收益率和持有更多資產）。但是理查德，很高興您添加任何其他細節。

Yes, sure. Yes, that's exact. And I guess I would add, by the way, good morning Jeff, what I would add is that if you just look at the premium component that Keith just talked about, think about it generally as being 1/3 for each of the components that we've just discussed. It's the increase in rates, average insured values and inflation guard. That's sort of the way to look at it.

是的，當然。是的，沒錯。順便說一句，早上好，傑夫，我想我要補充的是，如果你只看基思剛才談到的高級組件，一般將其視為每個組件的 1/3。我們剛剛討論過。這是利率、平均保險價值和通膨防範的增加。這就是看待它的方式。

And the other thing, too, that I would mention is you see -- you heard Keith talk about how much drops to the bottom line. I think that's also a credit to the expense discipline that we've had and the leverage we're getting, and you can see that coming out in the expense ratios that the growth in the premiums and the leverage that we have in the business is really allowing us to increase the bottom line.

我要提到的另一件事是你看——你聽到基思談到了利潤下降了多少。我認為這也是我們所實行的費用紀律和我們所獲得的槓桿作用的功勞，你可以看到，從費用比率來看，保費的增長和我們在業務中的槓桿作用是確實讓我們能夠增加利潤。

Got it. Very helpful. And then in Global Lifestyle, just looking at that benefit ratio kind of continue to move up. Despite rate increases, it was 23% in the quarter, mainly driven by auto, it sounds like. Could you maybe just discuss the pricing strategy there? Like when does that begin? What level of pricing can you get in this market? Really, any detail on that would be helpful.

知道了。很有幫助。然後在全球生活方式方面，只要看看福利比率就持續上升。儘管利率有所上升，但本季成長率為 23%，聽起來主要是由汽車推動的。您能否討論一下那裡的定價策略？例如什麼時候開始？在這個市場上你能得到什麼水準的定價？真的，任何關於這方面的細節都會有幫助。

Yes, I can certainly start, Richard. So if I think about the auto business, I'm actually pleased with the work done by our team. So we started making adjustments to rate late last year. So we've probably been in about a 12-month cycle, making adjustments with clients. We're really on the risk in a meaningful way for 4 or 5 different programs.

是的，我當然可以開始，理查德。因此，如果我考慮汽車業務，我實際上對我們團隊所做的工作感到滿意。因此，我們從去年年底開始對費率進行調整。所以我們可能會以大約 12 個月的週期與客戶進行調整。我們確實以有意義的方式承擔了 4 或 5 個不同專案的風險。

So it's not the bulk of our business, as we've talked about before. Most of that business is reinsured. So there's a handful of clients that we're working with very closely. And we put rate in place that we feel is appropriate to get the business to perform at the levels that are expected.

因此，正如我們之前討論過的，這不是我們業務的主要部分。大部分業務都得到了再保險。因此，我們正在與少數客戶密切合作。我們設定了我們認為合適的費率，以使業務達到預期的水平。

So that work has been done. It's been ongoing for the last 4 quarters or so feel good about the adjustments we've made. We've had incredible discussions with our clients to try to get the programs to the right level of profitability. We've also been working incredibly hard, not just on rate, but on the claims adjudication process, how we're acquiring parts, how we're thinking about repairs and which repair shops to use when the options are available to us to drive more efficiency, and a lot of diligence end-to-end and very much in partnership with the clients.

所以這項工作已經完成。過去 4 個季度一直在進行，因此我們對我們所做的調整感到滿意。我們與客戶進行了令人難以置信的討論，試圖使這些計劃達到適當的獲利水準。我們也一直在非常努力地工作，不僅在費率方面，而且在索賠裁決流程、我們如何獲取零件、我們如何考慮維修以及當我們可以選擇駕駛時使用哪些維修店更高的效率、端到端的大量勤奮以及與客戶的密切合作。

So as we look at the results in the quarter, certainly seeing a similar pattern to what we saw in Q2. But the good news is we've seen relative stability. The cost of severity on the auto side is up a little bit in Q3 over Q2, but the premium earning through is also up, and we're seeing a modest improvement in the underlying loss ratio when we look at the risk clients.

因此，當我們查看本季的結果時，肯定會看到與第二季類似的模式。但好消息是我們已經看到相對穩定。第三季汽車方面的嚴重成本比第二季略有上升，但保費收入也有所上升，當我們觀察風險客戶時，我們發現基本損失率略有改善。

So I feel like we're doing the right things. It's going to take time, certainly, to earn through. But early signs of good momentum at least in starting to stabilize as we look to bend the curve. But Richard, certainly anything else you want to add?

所以我覺得我們正在做正確的事。當然，這需要時間才能實現。但當我們希望曲線彎曲時，至少有開始穩定的良好勢頭的早期跡象。但是理查德，您當然還想補充什麼嗎？

Yes, I think that's exactly right. And in our prepared remarks, we basically talked about it will take some time. The claims adjudication work we're doing and the teams are doing a fantastic job, that's helping us today bend the curve a little bit. We've been able to get rate, which is fantastic. But it's going to take time because we've sold what we've sold in the past, and that's going to run through and then the new rates and the new premiums we're getting, that will come through and help us bend the curve as we go in the future, but it will take some time.

是的，我認為這是完全正確的。在我們準備好的發言中，我們基本上談到了這需要一些時間。我們正在做的索賠裁決工作和團隊做得非常出色，這幫助我們今天稍微扭轉了局面。我們已經能夠獲得利率，這太棒了。但這需要時間，因為我們已經賣掉了過去賣過的東西，這將貫穿始終，然後我們獲得的新費率和新保費將貫穿並幫助我們扭轉曲線我們將來會繼續前進，但這需要一些時間。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith of UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的布萊恩梅雷迪思。

Could you talk a little bit about what's going on in Japan and maybe when we might see a flip there from a growth perspective? I know you said you'll still see some pressures in 2024, and I know you've got the new contracts that are going in. When do we see that flip? I would have thought that was going to be a nice little tailwind for growth in '24.

您能談談日本正在發生的事情嗎？也許我們什麼時候可以從成長的角度看到那裡的轉變？我知道您說過 2024 年您仍會面臨一些壓力，而且我知道您已經簽訂了新合約。我們什麼時候會看到這種轉變？我原以為這將成為 24 年成長的一個不錯的小推動力。

Yes, sure. We start at the highest level with Japan, I mean -- and I've talked about this before, and hopefully, this comes through. I mean this is a really, really critical market for Assurant. It's a tremendous mobile marketplace. It's the second largest in the world after the U.S. And I do think we are well positioned for long-term growth. That's the fundamental point. We're doing a lot of investing in the market, investing in not just capabilities but also talent. And we're in a really fortunate position today in that we have relationships with every major operator in the marketplace.

是的，當然。我的意思是，我們從日本的最高層級開始，我之前已經討論過這一點，希望這一點能夠實現。我的意思是，這對 Assurant 來說是一個非常非常重要的市場。這是一個巨大的行動市場。它是僅次於美國的世界第二大經濟體，我確實認為我們已經做好了長期成長的準備。這是根本點。我們在市場上進行了大量投資，不僅投資能力，還投資人才。今天我們處於一個非常幸運的位置，因為我們與市場上的每個主要運營商都有關係。

We don't do all things for all operators, but we've got access, we've got deep relationships. And I think over time, that will bear fruit. I would say, as we think about exiting 2023, we're certainly stabilizing the financial performance in Japan. We've seen some subscriber runoff as we've talked about in the past. I expect that to continue to decelerate into '24.

我們不會為所有運營商做所有事情，但我們有機會，我們有深厚的關係。我認為隨著時間的推移，這將會取得成果。我想說，當我們考慮退出 2023 年時，我們肯定會穩定日本的財務表現。正如我們過去所討論的，我們已經看到了一些訂戶流失。我預計到 24 年後這種情況將繼續減速。

And we do think we'll grow EBITDA in Japan year-over-year, '24 over '23. So I'm really pleased with the hard work that the teams are doing and how we're positioned in the market. But that market is about what is it going to look like in 5 years? And how do we unlock the full potential of what I think we can achieve in that market.

我們確實認為我們在日本的 EBITDA 將同比增長，「24 年比 23 年」。因此，我對團隊所做的辛勤工作以及我們在市場中的定位感到非常滿意。但這個市場是關於 5 年後會是什麼樣子？我們如何釋放我認為我們可以在該市場實現的全部潛力。

Do you have like a percentage you can give us of how much of the Japanese business is now on a perpetual policy versus, I guess, it was a 4-year policy is what they were?

您能告訴我們現在有多少日本企業採用的是永久保單，而我猜，有多少是採用的是四年期保單？

Yes. So the 4-year policies continue to run down. Certainly, the majority of the business is on an evergreen policy. A 100% of the business that is sold today is on an evergreen policy, but certainly, the vast majority.

是的。所以4年保單繼續走下去。當然，大多數業務都遵循常青政策。今天出售的業務 100% 都遵循常青政策，但當然絕大多數。

Got you. And then second question, just going back to Global Housing. I'm just curious, what are you seeing right now from an inflationary perspective in that business, right? It sounds like it's pretty modest given what your loss ratios are pretty good. But if I look at some of the other homeowners insurance companies, they're still seeing a fair amount of inflationary pressure there. And maybe you can pivot that into maybe your business is a little bit different, and you've got better ways to control those that inflation than maybe some of the traditional homeowners companies?

明白你了。然後是第二個問題，回到全球住房。我只是好奇，從通貨膨脹的角度來看，您現在在該行業看到了什麼，對吧？考慮到您的損失率相當不錯，這聽起來相當適中。但如果我看看其他一些房屋保險公司，他們仍然面臨相當大的通膨壓力。也許你可以將其轉向也許你的業務有點不同，並且你有比某些傳統房主公司更好的方法來控制通貨膨脹？

Yes. So we definitely have still seen inflationary pressure. If we look at the Q3 results as an example, we did see higher severities year-over-year. We did see higher frequencies year-over-year. But because of the rate action that we've taken and the change with inflation guard on insured values, the premiums that we're getting more than offset those increases from a claims perspective. So I'd say that's largely why we're outperforming in this market. And obviously, our team is doing a really good job, to Richard's point, not just on the way we operate claims and the diligence that we work with, but the effort around expense efficiency.

是的。所以我們肯定仍然看到通膨壓力。如果我們以第三季的結果為例，我們確實看到了同比更高的嚴重程度。我們確實看到頻率逐年上升。但由於我們採取的利率行動以及通貨膨脹防範對保險價值的變化，從索賠的角度來看，我們獲得的保費足以抵消這些增加。所以我想說，這很大程度上是我們在這個市場表現出色的原因。顯然，在理查德看來，我們的團隊做得非常好，不僅體現在我們處理索賠的方式和我們工作的勤奮方面，也體現在圍繞費用效率的努力上。

I mean if you think about Housing, we've scaled that business -- and it really is a scale business. We've scaled tremendously and our expenses -- operational expenses are flat to down for the bulk of the Housing business. And overall, done a really good job on containing G&A, simplifying and focusing and driving a lot of digital initiatives to drive efficiency.

我的意思是，如果你考慮住房業務，我們已經擴大了該業務的規模——這確實是一項規模化的業務。我們已經大幅擴張，我們的開支——大部分住房業務的營運開支持平甚至下降。總體而言，在控制一般費用、簡化和集中精力以及推動許多數位計劃以提高效率方面做得非常好。

So it's a combination of 4 or 5 things that are coming together to lead to the outperformance. It's not as simple as rate. It's a lot of work across the board over the last 12 months-or-so.

因此，這是 4 或 5 件事的結合，共同導致了優異的表現。這並不像利率那麼簡單。在過去 12 個月左右的時間裡，全面開展了大量工作。

(Operator Instructions) Your next question comes from the line of John Barnidge of Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 John Barnidge。

You talked about on the call consolidating mobile service centers to 2 areas. I believe you name check Texas and Tennessee, if I heard correctly. Both are low tax, previously low-cost states. Are there further opportunities into '24 to move businesses or operations in cheaper areas in the U.S. that you're considering?

您在電話中談到將行動服務中心整合到兩個區域。如果我沒聽錯的話，我相信你可以查一下德克薩斯州和田納西州。兩者都是低稅收、以前低成本的州。進入 24 世紀，是否還有更多機會將業務或營運轉移到您正在考慮的美國成本較低的地區？

Yes, I would say that we're not actively considering any other relocations. If you think back to when we acquired HYLA. So go back to December 2020, we acquired HYLA. HYLA had a large facility in Nashville, Tennessee, and then Assurant had a facility in New York and a facility in Texas. And as we've looked at our business model, and we always wanted to have multiple sites for redundancy, certainly in operational resilience, but trying to get back to 2 sites, feels like a strategically the right thing to do for the business.

是的，我想說我們沒有積極考慮任何其他搬遷。如果你回想一下我們收購 HYLA 的時候。那麼回到2020年12月，我們收購了HYLA。 HYLA 在田納西州納許維爾擁有一家大型工廠，而 Assurant 在紐約和德克薩斯州也分別擁有一家工廠。當我們審視我們的業務模式時，我們一直希望擁有多個站點來實現冗餘，當然是在營運彈性方面，但嘗試恢復到 2 個站點對於企業來說，從戰略上來說似乎是正確的做法。

And then looking at geographies where we feel like we're really well positioned from a access to talent, from a logistics, access to clients, et cetera. So it's really more about the strategic decision here than it is purely on a cost basis. And it's trying to have scaled facilities that we can make proper investments in and then obviously get access to the talent. So that's what's driving that change. And we will be actually scaling our facility in Nashville. We're in the process of doing that work now. So we'll be building a newer, more modern and significantly larger facility to support the long-term growth of that business.

然後看看我們認為我們在人才、物流、客戶等方面確實處於有利地位的地區。因此，這實際上更多的是關於策略決策，而不僅僅是純粹的成本基礎。它正在嘗試擁有規模化的設施，我們可以對其進行適當的投資，然後顯然可以獲得人才。這就是推動這一變化的原因。我們實際上將擴大納許維爾的工廠規模。我們現在正在做這項工作。因此，我們將建造一個更新、更現代化、規模更大的設施，以支持該業務的長期成長。

I'd also just -- that's exactly right. Now I'd just add to that, too, is one of the other areas we've been getting some real estate efficiency, if I can put it that way, is on our corporate real estate.

我也只是——這是完全正確的。現在我還要補充一點，我們一直在提高房地產效率的其他領域之一，如果我可以這麼說的話，就是我們的企業房地產。

We have been either downsizing some of our offices or eliminating some of the offices. And that helps us from an expense base to that overall corporate expense that we have. So that's another area that we've gotten some pretty good efficiency in, John.

我們要么縮小了一些辦公室的規模，要么取消了一些辦公室。這有助於我們從支出基礎轉向我們的整體公司支出。所以這是我們在另一個領域取得了相當好的效率，約翰。

That's very helpful. I appreciate that. Earnings growth has been very strong. And my follow-up question, I'm not trying to get ahead of formal guidance coming in February, and I appreciate what you've offered today. But how do we think of reinsurance savings next year emerging on the book that's being run off within Global Housing, juxtaposed against what's fortunately, knock on wood, but somewhat favorable of a cat environment for you this year?

這非常有幫助。我很感激。獲利成長非常強勁。我的後續問題是，我並不是想搶先於二月發布的正式指導意見，我感謝您今天提供的內容。但是，我們如何看待明年在全球住房內部流失的賬簿上出現的再保險節省，與幸運的是，敲木頭，但今年對你來說有點有利的貓環境相比？

Yes. So maybe I'll just offer one thought and then Richard can speak to the process. But to your point, we've obviously had a favorable cat year to this point, significantly below last year, and we talked about a target cat load of $140 million. We're sitting at $89 million year-to-date. So obviously, that's fortunate from that perspective and we'll certainly look to those statistics as we talk to our partners heading into the renewal cycle and hopefully a little bit of a different environment than we were in last year. But Richard, maybe talk a little bit about how we're thinking about reinsurance.

是的。所以也許我只會提出一個想法，然後理查德就可以談論這個過程。但就您而言，到目前為止，我們顯然已經度過了一個有利的貓年，明顯低於去年，我們談到了 1.4 億美元的目標貓負荷。今年迄今為止，我們的收入為 8900 萬美元。顯然，從這個角度來看這是幸運的，當我們與進入更新周期的合作夥伴交談時，我們肯定會關注這些統計數據，並希望環境與去年有所不同。但是理查德，也許可以談談我們對再保險的看法。

Yes. Thanks, Keith. Yes, in terms of the reinsurance, it's a little bit early days to talk to specifically about it, but I think you hit it on the head in the question. The market has stabilized in terms of processing pricing, it has stabilized versus what it was in the last couple of years, so we're going into better market conditions.

是的。謝謝，基斯。是的，就再保險而言，現在具體討論它還為時過早，但我認為您在這個問題中擊中了要害。市場在加工定價方面已經穩定，與過去幾年相比已經穩定，所以我們將進入更好的市場條件。

I would say we'll have a consistent approach that we've had in the last couple of years when we go into the market. And as Keith said, we're entering the market, I would say, as one of the good guys in terms of we have not gone up into our past our retention levels to the reinsurers this year for the cat reinsurance. So we walk into the meetings, we'll be there in presenting a very favorable position relative to the reinsurers, where they ended up in 2023.

我想說，當我們進入市場時，我們將採用過去幾年所採用的一致性方法。正如基斯所說，我們正在進入這個市場，我想說的是，作為好人之一，我們今年的巨災再保險還沒有達到過去的再保險公司保留水準。因此，當我們參加會議時，我們將在那裡展示相對於再保險公司非常有利的立場，他們最終在 2023 年取得了這樣的成績。

Your next question comes from the line of Tommy McJoynt of KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tommy McJoynt。

I think you said, Keith said and this (inaudible) for 2024 that you're expecting more modest growth in housing in 2024. Just want to clarify that, that is still expecting growth? And then is that in reference or I guess some terminology excluding catastrophes or including catastrophes?

我想你說過，基斯說過，對於 2024 年（聽不清楚），你預期 2024 年房屋市場將出現更溫和的成長。只是想澄清一下，這仍然是預期的成長嗎？那麼這是參考文獻還是我猜測一些排除災難或包括災難的術語？

Yes, great question. So we're looking at ex cat, first of all, obviously, hard to predict what cats are going to look like. But as I think about Housing in '24, I think when we suggest modest growth, there's a couple of things to remember. First of all, a phenomenal 2023. I mean this is a pretty significant recovery year, obviously, a little bit more challenged in '22, but roaring back in 2023.

是的，很好的問題。所以我們首先要看看前貓，顯然，很難預測貓會是什麼樣子。但當我想到 24 年的房屋市場時，我認為當我們建議適度成長時，有幾件事需要記住。首先，這是非凡的 2023 年。我的意思是，這是一個相當重要的復甦年，顯然，22 年面臨的挑戰更大一些，但 2023 年會捲土重來。

So we're extremely pleased about that. And of course, that trend line can't continue because it's been such a turnaround. But what I would say is we've also seen about $40 million of prior year development benefiting the P&L in 2023. But we still think we'll grow housing even though we've got to grow through that $40 million of PYD before we generate $1 of growth, we still think we'll grow Housing because of the momentum that we see and all the great work done by the team.

所以我們對此感到非常高興。當然，這條趨勢線無法繼續下去，因為它已經發生瞭如此大的轉變。但我想說的是，我們還看到上一年的約4000 萬美元的開發項目使2023 年的損益表受益。但我們仍然認為我們會開發住房，儘管我們必須先完成這4000 萬美元的PYD成長才能產生收益。成長 1 美元，我們仍然認為我們會成長住房業務，因為我們看到了勢頭以及團隊所做的所有出色工作。

So that's what we're trying to signal. Obviously, we'll get into the detailed forecast as we come back in February, but we do feel good about how we're positioned, right? Housing obviously is going to moderate, but we've got great trend lines sitting behind us and great momentum. And then as we saw in Lifestyle in the third quarter, although we've got challenges we're working through on the auto side, overall, we're exactly where we thought we would be. We're still signaling down modestly for the year. We are signaling growth in 2024 for Lifestyle, and we'll come back with more details, but certainly driven by the strength of the U.S. Connected Living business, which has been growing nicely for 7 or 8 years.

這就是我們想要發出的訊號。顯然，我們將在二月回來時進行詳細的預測，但我們確實對自己的定位感到滿意，對嗎？房地產市場顯然會放緩，但我們身後有著巨大的趨勢線和強勁的勢頭。正如我們在第三季的生活方式中看到的那樣，儘管我們在汽車方面遇到了挑戰，但總的來說，我們完全達到了我們的預期。我們仍然對今年的業績溫和下調。我們預計生活方式將在 2024 年實現成長，我們將在回來時提供更多細節，但肯定是受到美國互聯生活業務實力的推動，該業務在過去的七、八年裡一直在良好增長。

And just another addition on Housing. We will have something like $40 million of PYD going into next year. So obviously, can't count on that in the future years. So that's something we're going to need to overcome. And as Keith said, it's just a fantastic year we're having in Housing. And kind of the way I look at it, an we look at it inside is we look at it a multiyear journey.

還有關於住房的另一個補充。明年我們將投入約 4000 萬美元的 PYD。顯然，未來幾年不能指望這一點。所以這是我們需要克服的問題。正如基思所說，這是我們在住房領域度過的美好的一年。我看待它的方式，我們看待它的內部，我們看待它是一個多年的旅程。

So really looking at -- last year was a bit of a tougher year. We turned the corner really quickly in terms of the uniqueness of our business, and we've talked about the inflation guard and the rates and the expense leverage that we're getting. So we are expecting it to be continued rate but at a slower pace. But again, it can -- it's not going to be like this year, it's going to be slower given all the elements that Keith and I have mentioned.

所以說，去年是比較艱難的一年。就我們業務的獨特性而言，我們很快就扭轉了局面，我們已經討論了通膨防範以及我們獲得的利率和費用槓桿。因此，我們預計它會持續成長，但速度會放緩。但同樣，它可以——不會像今年那樣，考慮到基斯和我提到的所有因素，它會變慢。

Makes sense. And then, Richard, can you talk a little bit about the new money yields that you guys are getting, the duration of your investment portfolio and just how much of the tailwinds of sort of reinvesting over time could be? And then also how that allocates between potential upside for Connected Living versus Auto versus Housing, just kind of how that investment income fits within each of those?

說得通。然後，理查德，您能談談您獲得的新資金收益率、投資組合的持續時間以及隨著時間的推移再投資的順風車可能有多大嗎？然後，如何在互聯生活、汽車和住房的潛在優勢之間進行分配，投資收入如何適應其中的每一個？

Yes. Thanks, Tommy. And in fact, yields and interest rates have been a nice tailwind for us. It's helping us offset some of the inflationary issues that we've talked about, particularly in Auto, for example. So if you look at year-to-year, our investment income is up about 50% or $40 million.

是的。謝謝，湯米。事實上，收益率和利率對我們來說是一個很好的推動力。它正在幫助我們抵消我們已經討論過的一些通貨膨脹問題，特別是在汽車領域。因此，如果你逐年查看，我們的投資收入成長了約 50%，即 4000 萬美元。

So a really nice number coming through. I would say, in answer to your question, that's probably think about it being maybe 1/3 Housing, 2/3 Lifestyle and in Lifestyle, the bigger component of it is in Auto. What you're seeing in this quarter is really the result of 2 things, and I've talked about it in past earnings calls, it's really -- it's coming from fixed income and fixed income yields.

所以這是一個非常好的數字。我想說，在回答你的問題時，可能會想到它可能是 1/3 住房，2/3 生活方式，而在生活方式中，更大的組成部分是汽車。你在本季看到的實際上是兩件事的結果，我在過去的財報電話會議中談到過它，它實際上來自固定收益和固定收益收益率。

Our assets are up a little bit, but yields are up as that -- as those fixed income maturities roll over and we get more investment income on those, but also cash yields are really high, as you know. Who knows what's going to -- what the Fed is going to do next year. But for the moment, we're getting nice -- real high returns off the cash that we're holding. So nice sort of tailwinds to us, and that should continue as long as rates and so forth hold up. But if rates start coming down, I would say inflation is probably coming down. So we'll get some offset there, hopefully, as well.

我們的資產增加了一點，但收益率也隨之增加——隨著這些固定收益到期日的延期，我們獲得了更多的投資收益，但正如你所知，現金收益率也非常高。誰知道美聯儲明年會做什麼。但目前，我們的情況很好——我們持有的現金獲得了真正的高回報。這對我們來說是一種很好的順風，只要利率等保持不變，這種順風就應該持續下去。但如果利率開始下降，我想說通膨可能會下降。因此，我們希望也能在那裡得到一些補償。

(Operator Instructions) Our last question comes from the line of Grace Carter of Bank of America.

（操作員指示）我們的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Grace Carter。

I guess back to the expectations for housing next year. I was wondering if we could maybe talk a little bit about the components of the growth that's expected? I mean even excluding the reserve development this quarter, the underlying loss ratio looks pretty good. And just the extent to which maybe the improvement in the loss ratio and the expense ratio (inaudible) is sustainable or the extent to which maybe they could improve even further just as the recent pricing actions continue to earn through the book. And I guess, just kind of the expectations for the top line, given that presumably maybe some of the benefits from the inflation adjustment and things like that start to decelerate a bit next year?

我想回到明年對住房的預期。我想知道我們是否可以談談預期成長的組成部分？我的意思是，即使排除本季的準備金成長，基本損失率看起來也相當不錯。損失率和費用率（聽不清楚）的改善可能在多大程度上是可持續的，或者在多大程度上它們可能會進一步改善，就像最近的定價行動繼續透過這本書獲利一樣。我想，這只是對收入的預期，因為通膨調整等帶來的一些好處可能會在明年開始放緩？

Yes. No, it's a great question. And certainly, Richard can add in. But when I think about that business, and we've talked about over the long term an expected combined ratio range of 86% to 91%. If we look at where we sit on a reported basis this year looks a little bit lower, but adjusting for the prior year development, it's about 85% year-to-date with a relatively light cat year so far in terms of the P&L. So we're relatively close to that range today, which is good.

是的。不，這是一個很好的問題。當然，理查德可以補充一下。但是當我考慮這項業務時，我們已經討論了長期的預期綜合成本率範圍為 86% 至 91%。如果我們看看今年的報告基礎上的情況看起來有點低，但根據上一年的發展進行調整，年初至今約為 85%，就損益而言，到目前為止，貓年相對較少。所以今天我們相對接近這個範式，這很好。

Obviously, we think that's an appropriate long-term range for the business. We do think rate will continue to come through. But as we've said, at a more moderated pace as we have less of that double-digit AIV earning through and then it obviously comes through at just over 3% going forward, let's call it a more normalized level.

顯然，我們認為這對該業務來說是一個合適的長期範圍。我們確實認為利率將繼續上漲。但正如我們所說，隨著我們的兩位數 AIV 收入減少，以更溫和的速度前進，然後它顯然會以略高於 3% 的速度前進，讓我們稱之為更正常化的水平。

I think policy count is relatively stable. But we do think we're well positioned. If you think about industry consolidation and think about the clients that we operate with, we partner with a lot of major players in the space. And hopefully, as the market dynamics move around, there could be some opportunity for us to continue to grow policies over time.

我認為政策數量相對穩定。但我們確實認為我們處於有利位置。如果您考慮行業整合並考慮與我們合作的客戶，我們會與該領域的許多主要參與者合作。希望隨著市場動態的變化，我們可能有機會隨著時間的推移繼續制定政策。

So I do think it will be just a moderated trend line from what we saw this year, but certainly still expect strong results in Housing and hence, overcoming the $40 million of prior year development. But Richard, what else might you add?

因此，我確實認為這將只是我們今年看到的一條溫和的趨勢線，但當然仍然期望住房方面取得強勁成果，從而克服去年 4000 萬美元的開發費用。但是理查德，你還能補充什麼嗎？

Yes. I think that, I guess, I would also say that, Grace, when we look at the combined operating ratio, something we keep our eye on. So really a combination of everything we're getting. We've talked about the top line growth, and that would be tapering the expense ratio, we're in a good place with that.

是的。我想，我想，我也會說，格蕾絲，當我們考慮綜合營運比率時，我們會密切關注這一點。所以這其實是我們所得到的一切的結合。我們已經討論過收入成長，這將減少費用比率，我們在這方面處於有利地位。

I think that could continue, maybe not as low as it is now because we'll always have -- maybe some -- have some investments and so forth. But we're in a good place there. The loss ratio think about 40%, 42% maybe full year, that kind of thing. But even then, it's going to depend on what weather we're going to get. What's the severity, what's the frequency, what are the storms, the convective storms that we had in the spring time.

我認為這種情況可能會持續下去，也許不會像現在那麼低，因為我們總是會有——也許是一些——有一些投資等等。但我們在那裡處於一個很好的位置。全年損失率約 40%、42%，之類的。但即便如此，這也將取決於我們將要遇到的天氣。春季我們遇到的風暴、對流風暴的嚴重程度如何、頻率如何、有哪些。

So obviously, that's something that's hard to call. But if we talk about the combined ratio at 86% to 91% with cat, that's probably something that we look to and say, on a normal cat year, we'd probably be in and around that range, if that's helpful.

顯然，這是很難說的。但如果我們談論貓的綜合比率為 86% 到 91%，這可能是我們所關注的，並且會說，在正常的貓年，我們可能會在這個範圍內或附近，如果這有幫助的話。

Yes, that's helpful. And I guess on the Renters book. We've heard some personal auto players this quarter say that they're starting to see severity trends maybe flatten out a bit. And I was just curious on the affinity partners aspect of that business, if you all are seeing any green shoots there or when that might inflect back to strong growth.

是的，這很有幫助。我猜是在《租屋者》一書中。本季我們聽到一些個人汽車玩家表示，他們開始看到嚴重性趨勢可能會趨於平緩。我只是對該業務的親和合作夥伴方面感到好奇，如果你們都看到那裡有任何萌芽，或者什麼時候可能會恢復強勁增長。

Yes. I think we're seeing maybe early signs of modest improvement there. I'd say it's probably too early to call it, Grace. But definitely, when we look at Renters, really strong performance, and we've signaled this over the last few years in the property management channel.

是的。我認為我們可能看到了適度改善的早期跡象。我想說現在說這可能還太早，格蕾絲。但可以肯定的是，當我們看到租戶時，他們的表現非常強勁，而且我們在過去幾年中已經在物業管理管道中表明了這一點。

So certainly diversifying our portfolio between affinity and property management, and we actually grew our PMC in the third quarter this year more than we grew it all of 2022. So the team has done an incredible job adding clients, driving attach and leveraging our Cover360 platform.

因此，當然，我們的投資組合在親和力和物業管理之間多樣化，實際上，我們今年第三季度的PMC 增長量超過了2022 年全年的增長量。因此，該團隊在增加客戶、推動附加和利用我們的Cover360 平台方面做得非常出色。

And then to your point, should we start to see an acceleration in marketing relative to auto insurers, then that could certainly provide upside opportunity over time? I'd say it's too early to suggest that we're seeing firm trends, but definitely feel like there's opportunity there as we look forward and certainly in '24.

然後就您的觀點而言，我們是否應該開始看到相對於汽車保險公司的營銷加速，那麼隨著時間的推移，這肯定會提供上行機會？我想說，現在說我們看到了堅定的趨勢還為時過早，但在我們展望未來時，肯定會感覺到那裡有機會，當然在 24 年。

Okay. I think that was the last question. So thank you, everybody, for joining the call. We'll certainly look forward to reconnecting in February. And as always, if you have questions, please reach out to Suzanne or Sean, and we'll get back in touch. Thanks so much.

好的。我認為這是最後一個問題。謝謝大家加入這次電話會議。我們當然會期待在二月重新建立聯繫。像往常一樣，如果您有疑問，請聯絡 Suzanne 或 Sean，我們將盡快與您聯繫。非常感謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。請此時斷開線路，祝您有美好的一天。