Assurant Inc (AIZ) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Assurant's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Suzanne Shepherd, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability. You may begin.

歡迎來到安信龍 2022 年第四季度和全年電話會議和網絡直播。 （操作員說明）現在我很高興將發言權交給投資者關係和可持續發展高級副總裁 Suzanne Shepherd。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter and full year 2022 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant's conference call are Keith Demmings, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Richard Dziadzio, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你，運營商。大家，早安。我們期待今天與您討論我們的第四季度和 2022 年全年業績。與我一起參加 Assurant 電話會議的有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Keith Demmings；和我們的首席財務官 Richard Dziadzio。

Yesterday, after the market closed, we issued a news release, announcing our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2022. The release and corresponding financial supplement are available on assurant.com.

昨天，收市後，我們發布了新聞稿，公佈了我們 2022 年第四季度和全年的業績。新聞稿和相應的財務補充資料可在 assurant.com 上獲取。

We'll start today's call with remarks from Keith and Richard before moving into a Q&A session. Some of the statements made today are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements are based upon our historical performance and current expectations and subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements. Additional information regarding these factors can be found in yesterday's earnings release and financial supplement as well as in our SEC reports.

在進入問答環節之前，我們將從 Keith 和 Richard 的發言開始今天的電話會議。今天發表的一些聲明具有前瞻性。前瞻性陳述基於我們的歷史業績和當前預期，並受風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響，這些因素可能導致實際結果與這些陳述預期的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素的更多信息可以在昨天的收益發布和財務補充以及我們的 SEC 報告中找到。

During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance. For more details on these measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the 2, please refer to yesterday's news release and financial supplement.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非 GAAP 財務指標，我們認為這些指標對於評估公司業績很重要。有關這些措施的更多詳細信息、最具可比性的 GAAP 措施以及兩者的調節，請參閱昨天的新聞稿和財務補充。

Effective January 1, 2023, we realigned the composition of our segments to better manage our risk and fee-based, capital-light businesses. Global Housing is now comprised of 2 primary lines of business, Homeowners and Renters and Others. Certain product lines, including our Leased and Financed business, previously reported in housing, have been moved to Global Lifestyle to better align with our go-to-market strategy. While this change has no impact on our consolidated results, it will modestly impact the earnings trends within the segments. Our 2023 outlook is based on this realigned view.

自 2023 年 1 月 1 日起，我們重新調整了部門的構成，以更好地管理我們的風險和收費輕資本業務。 Global Housing 現在由 2 個主要業務線組成，即房主和租房者及其他。某些產品線，包括我們之前報告的住房租賃和融資業務，已轉移到 Global Lifestyle，以更好地配合我們的上市戰略。雖然這一變化對我們的綜合業績沒有影響，但會適度影響各部門的盈利趨勢。我們的 2023 年展望基於這一重新調整的觀點。

Please refer to the financial supplement for a reconciliation of certain key data for these changes.

有關這些變化的某些關鍵數據的核對，請參閱財務補充資料。

I will now turn the call over to Keith.

我現在將把電話轉給基思。

Thanks, Suzanne, and good morning, everyone. Reflecting on my first year as CEO, I couldn't be prouder of the extraordinary dedication and commitment demonstrated by our employees in delivering for our clients and customers around the world. During the year, we made progress in executing our vision to be the leading global business services provider supporting the advancement of the Connected World. We continue to grow and strengthen our partnerships with key clients and delivered new innovative solutions, all while navigating more volatile market conditions. Our portfolio of lifestyle and housing businesses proved resilient, but not immune to macroeconomic headwinds.

謝謝，蘇珊娜，大家早上好。回顧我擔任首席執行官的第一年，我為我們的員工在為全球客戶和客戶提供服務時所表現出的非凡奉獻精神和承諾感到無比自豪。在這一年裡，我們在實現成為支持互聯世界進步的全球領先商業服務提供商的願景方面取得了進展。我們繼續發展和加強與主要客戶的合作夥伴關係，並提供新的創新解決方案，同時應對更加動蕩的市場條件。我們的生活方式和住房業務組合證明具有彈性，但也不能免受宏觀經濟逆風的影響。

In 2022, we grew adjusted earnings per share by 11% and delivered over $1.1 billion of adjusted EBITDA, both excluding reportable catastrophes. Adjusting for $27 million of unfavorable foreign exchange, adjusted EBITDA growth was 3%, and 2022 represented our sixth consecutive year of profitable growth. This is a reflection of our compelling strategy and resilient culture. We've held true to our company's purpose of helping people thrive, with a steadfast commitment to being a socially responsible company for all of our stakeholders. I'm proud that we've been recognized as a Great Place To Work in 13 countries, and most recently in the U.S. for the second consecutive year.

2022 年，我們調整後的每股收益增長了 11%，調整後的 EBITDA 超過 11 億美元，均不包括可報告的災難。調整 2700 萬美元的不利外匯後，調整後的 EBITDA 增長率為 3%，2022 年是我們連續第六年實現盈利增長。這反映了我們引人注目的戰略和富有彈性的文化。我們秉承公司幫助人們茁壯成長的宗旨，堅定地致力於成為一家對我們所有利益相關者俱有社會責任感的公司。我感到自豪的是，我們在 13 個國家/地區被公認為“最佳工作場所”，最近連續第二年在美國獲得認可。

Our focus remains on engaging and developing our diverse talent pool through enhanced leadership and skill development programs. We also continue to reduce our environmental impact as a core pillar of our ESG strategy. Building on our progress to date, we announced in December our goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40% by 2030. This target aligns with the Paris Agreement and ensures we drive meaningful reductions. We've also taken a number of actions within our businesses to strengthen Assurant for the future.

我們的重點仍然是通過加強領導力和技能發展計劃來吸引和發展我們多元化的人才庫。我們還繼續將減少對環境的影響作為我們 ESG 戰略的核心支柱。在我們迄今取得的進展的基礎上，我們在 12 月宣布了到 2030 年將溫室氣體排放量減少 40% 的目標。這一目標與《巴黎協定》保持一致，並確保我們推動有意義的減排。我們還在我們的業務中採取了一些行動來加強 Assurant 的未來。

In Global Housing, we initiated a business transformation, including exiting certain noncore businesses, such as our sharing economy as well as international cat-exposed business, where we did not see a path to leadership positions. More broadly, across Assurant, we realigned our organizational structure, as Suzanne referenced, to drive more focus and better deploy talent. We also took decisive action by accelerating several expense initiatives to realize additional efficiencies and position us for continued long-term growth.

在 Global Housing 中，我們啟動了業務轉型，包括退出某些非核心業務，例如我們的共享經濟以及國際貓暴露業務，在這些業務中我們看不到通往領導職位的途徑。更廣泛地說，正如 Suzanne 所提到的，我們在整個 Assurant 中重新調整了我們的組織結構，以推動更多的關注和更好地部署人才。我們還採取了果斷行動，加快了多項開支計劃，以實現更高的效率，並為持續的長期增長做好準備。

As we announced in December, we expect to realize $55 million of annualized gross savings by the end of 2024 through the simplification of our organizational structure, and our real estate consolidation program given our increasingly hybrid workforce. These actions will help mitigate the impact of higher labor costs and headwinds from the macroeconomic environment as well as fund additional investments, including increased automation.

正如我們在 12 月宣布的那樣，我們預計到 2024 年底，通過簡化我們的組織結構和我們的房地產整合計劃，到 2024 年實現 5500 萬美元的年度總節省，因為我們的員工隊伍日益混合。這些行動將有助於減輕勞動力成本上升和宏觀經濟環境逆風的影響，並為額外投資提供資金，包括提高自動化程度。

In addition to ensuring a more streamlined organizational and cost structure, we've gained momentum throughout the year in both Global Lifestyle and Global Housing, renewing and winning new clients in each of our major lines of business. In Global Lifestyle, adjusted EBITDA increased 7% in 2022, with growth from both Connected Living and Global Automotive. On a constant currency basis, adjusted EBITDA expanded by 11%, aligned with our original expectations for the year. In Connected Living, we grew adjusted EBITDA by 15% on a constant currency basis, driven by mobile protection program growth in North America.

除了確保更精簡的組織和成本結構外，我們在全球生活方式和全球住房方面全年都獲得了動力，在我們的每個主要業務領域更新並贏得了新客戶。在全球生活方式領域，2022 年調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 7%，這主要得益於互聯生活和全球汽車業務的增長。在固定匯率基礎上，調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 11%，符合我們對本年度的最初預期。在互聯生活領域，在北美移動保護計劃增長的推動下，我們在固定匯率基礎上將調整後的 EBITDA 增長了 15%。

Our ability to continuously innovate our products and services has supported a stronger and more differentiated customer experience, resulting in increased Net Promoter Scores.

我們不斷創新產品和服務的能力支持更強大、更差異化的客戶體驗，從而提高了淨推薦值。

In addition to key partner renewals, including T-Mobile and XFINITY, we secured new business opportunities and new client partnerships, continuing to diversify our broad client base. In our mobile protection business, we now protect nearly 62 million global devices, driven by the 25 new protection programs we've added since 2015. We serviced over 28 million devices in 2022, mainly from our mobile trade-in business as we add scale and further demonstrate our position as a market leader with this important value-added service to our clients. We added several new trading clients and now have over 40 trade-in programs globally. We continue to invest in talent and strengthen supply chain operations to maintain our competitive advantage.

除了 T-Mobile 和 XFINITY 等重要合作夥伴續約之外，我們還獲得了新的商業機會和新的客戶合作夥伴關係，繼續使我們廣泛的客戶群多樣化。在我們的移動保護業務中，在我們自 2015 年以來新增的 25 項保護計劃的推動下，我們現在保護了近 6200 萬台全球設備。2022 年，我們為超過 2800 萬台設備提供服務，主要來自我們擴大規模的移動以舊換新業務並進一步證明我們作為市場領導者的地位，為我們的客戶提供這項重要的增值服務。我們增加了幾個新的交易客戶，現在在全球擁有 40 多個以舊換新計劃。我們繼續投資於人才並加強供應鏈運營，以保持我們的競爭優勢。

In Global Automotive, we grew global protected autos in 2022 by 2% to 54.1 million vehicles, helping to generate adjusted EBITDA growth of 5%. Recently, we expanded and enhanced our EV One protection offering in the U.S., and coverage is now available for battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, including comprehensive battery coverage.

在全球汽車業務方面，我們在 2022 年將全球受保護汽車增長了 2%，達到 5410 萬輛，幫助實現了 5% 的調整後 EBITDA 增長。最近，我們在美國擴展和增強了我們的 EV One 保護產品，現在可以為純電動汽車和插電式混合動力汽車提供保障，包括全面的電池保障。

In our newly combined Leased and Financed business, we partnered with CNH Industrial in the U.S. and Canada to provide service contracts and physical damage insurance. CNH is the third largest agriculture and construction equipment company in the world. This partnership was made possible by the talent and expertise of our teams, including through the acquisition of EPG.

在我們新合併的租賃和融資業務中，我們與美國和加拿大的 CNH Industrial 合作提供服務合同和物理損壞保險。 CNH 是世界第三大農業和建築設備公司。我們團隊的才能和專業知識使這種夥伴關係成為可能，包括通過收購 EPG。

In Global Housing, we took swift action to mitigate the impact of high inflation within our lender-placed business. We began to see improved performance as we exited the year, reflecting the rate increases implemented over the course of the year. We expect higher rates to roll through our book into 2023 and beyond, while we manage ongoing elevated claims costs. In 2022, we renewed 8 lender-placed clients, including several of our most significant partnerships with multiyear agreements. These renewals represent 36% of our over 31 million loans tracked.

在 Global Housing 方面，我們迅速採取行動，減輕高通脹對我們放貸業務的影響。當我們退出這一年時，我們開始看到業績有所改善，這反映了在這一年中實施的利率增長。我們預計 2023 年及以後的賬面利率會更高，同時我們會管理持續上升的索賠成本。 2022 年，我們續簽了 8 位貸方安置的客戶，其中包括與我們簽訂多年協議的幾個最重要的合作夥伴關係。這些續約占我們追踪的超過 3100 萬筆貸款的 36%。

In Multifamily Housing, we now have over 2.6 million renters policies. While we've seen slower growth from our affinity partnerships, our volume with property management companies continues to expand as we signed several new partnerships, including 2 top PMCs with over 100,000 combined units. We also successfully completed multiyear renewals with 6 key client relationships.

在多戶住宅中，我們現在有超過 260 萬個租戶政策。雖然我們看到親和合作夥伴關係的增長放緩，但隨著我們簽署了幾項新的合作夥伴關係，我們與物業管理公司的業務量繼續擴大，其中包括 2 家擁有超過 100,000 個合併單位的頂級 PMC。我們還成功完成了與 6 個主要客戶關係的多年續約。

As we continue to convert clients to our Cover360 platform, we expect to see ongoing policy growth in that channel. Throughout the year, we maintained a strong balance sheet as we navigated increased macroeconomic uncertainty. Our businesses contributed a total of $550 million in dividends to the holding company, or roughly 52% of segment earnings, including catastrophe losses. Together with the remaining net proceeds from the Global Preneed sale, we returned a total of $718 million in share repurchases and common stock dividends.

隨著我們繼續將客戶轉化為我們的 Cover360 平台，我們希望看到該渠道的政策持續增長。全年，我們在宏觀經濟不確定性增加的情況下保持了強勁的資產負債表。我們的業務為控股公司貢獻了總計 5.5 億美元的股息，約佔分部收益的 52%，其中包括巨災損失。連同 Global Preneed 銷售的剩餘淨收益，我們返還了總計 7.18 億美元的股票回購和普通股股息。

Looking ahead, we believe we have a compelling vision and strategy that will drive outperformance and shareholder value long term. As a business services leader, we will continue to pursue profitable growth in more fee-based, capital-light businesses, which continue to account for the majority of our earnings. In addition, we'll continue to optimize results and cash flow generation in our risk-based business.

展望未來，我們相信我們擁有令人信服的願景和戰略，將推動長期業績和股東價值。作為商業服務的領導者，我們將繼續在更多以收費為基礎的輕資本業務中尋求盈利增長，這些業務繼續占我們收入的大部分。此外，我們將繼續優化基於風險的業務的結果和現金流生成。

In 2023, we believe we can drive continued profitable growth, though at a more modest pace given strong '22 results in lifestyle and our near-term view of the broader economy. Specifically, we expect adjusted EBITDA, excluding cats, to increase low single digits, with results improving as the year progresses, reflecting trends in the business and the broader market as well as the restructuring actions taken in 2022.

到 2023 年，我們相信我們可以推動持續的盈利增長，儘管考慮到 22 年生活方式方面的強勁結果以及我們對更廣泛經濟的近期看法，我們的增長速度會更加溫和。具體而言，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA（不包括巨災）將以低個位數增長，隨著時間的推移，結果會有所改善，反映出業務和更廣泛市場的趨勢以及 2022 年採取的重組行動。

Earnings growth is expected to be driven by improved performance in Global Housing as well as more modest growth in Global Lifestyle. Adjusted earnings per share growth is expected to trail adjusted EBITDA growth, primarily reflecting a higher annual depreciation expense related to several strategic technology investments critical to executing our strategy, a higher consolidated effective tax rate compared to a favorable 2022 and timing of capital deployment. We've had a long-standing track record of strong cash flow generation and disciplined capital deployment, and we continue to believe that a balanced capital deployment strategy drives long-term value.

預計盈利增長將受到 Global Housing 業績改善以及 Global Lifestyle 業務溫和增長的推動。調整後的每股收益增長預計將落後於調整後的 EBITDA 增長，這主要反映了與對執行我們戰略至關重要的幾項戰略技術投資相關的年度折舊費用增加、與有利的 2022 年相比更高的綜合有效稅率以及資本部署的時機。我們在產生強勁的現金流和嚴格的資本配置方面有著長期的往績，我們仍然相信平衡的資本配置策略可以推動長期價值。

Our capital management priorities for this year will be focused on supporting the organic growth of our business and maintaining our investment-grade ratings. We expect share repurchases will remain a core component of our capital deployment strategy given the attractiveness of our stock. But in light of the continued uncertain macro environment, we believe it is prudent to preserve flexibility over the near term. Therefore, based on current market conditions and expected business performance, we anticipate that any share repurchases would occur in the second half of the year and could be below 2022 underlying buyback activity.

我們今年的資本管理重點將集中在支持我們業務的有機增長和維持我們的投資級評級上。鑑於我們股票的吸引力，我們預計股票回購仍將是我們資本配置戰略的核心組成部分。但鑑於宏觀環境持續不明朗，我們認為在短期內保持靈活性是謹慎的做法。因此，根據當前的市場狀況和預期的業務表現，我們預計任何股票回購都將在今年下半年發生，並且可能低於 2022 年的基本回購活動。

As the broader environment begins to stabilize and visibility improves, we will reevaluate levels and timing of capital deployment as part of our overall capital deployment strategy. Our M&A strategy will continue to focus on compelling deals in Global Lifestyle. However, the hurdle rate for M&A will be high given the attractiveness of our stock.

隨著更廣泛的環境開始穩定和可見度提高，我們將重新評估資本部署的水平和時間，作為我們整體資本部署戰略的一部分。我們的併購戰略將繼續專注於 Global Lifestyle 領域引人注目的交易。然而，鑑於我們股票的吸引力，併購的門檻很高。

As we enter 2023, we remain well positioned for long-term growth through our differentiated lifestyle and housing portfolio. We are focused on creating new sources of growth, scaling new client wins and deepening current client relationships to continually drive added value for our key clients and customers.

隨著我們進入 2023 年，我們將通過差異化的生活方式和住房組合為長期增長做好準備。我們專注於創造新的增長來源、擴大贏得新客戶的規模並深化現有客戶關係，以持續為我們的主要客戶和客戶帶來附加值。

I'll now turn the call over to Richard to review the fourth quarter results and our 2023 outlook in greater detail. Richard?

我現在將電話轉給理查德，以更詳細地審查第四季度業績和我們的 2023 年展望。理查德？

Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. As Keith has outlined our full year 2022 performance, I will focus on fourth quarter trends, particularly as we outlined our expectations for 2023. Given some of the significant changes in foreign exchange rates during the year, I will be citing some growth rates in both absolute and constant currency terms.

謝謝你，基思，大家早上好。由於 Keith 概述了我們 2022 年的全年業績，我將重點關注第四季度的趨勢，尤其是當我們概述了我們對 2023 年的預期時。鑑於這一年外匯匯率的一些重大變化，我將在這兩個方面都提到一些增長率絕對和不變的貨幣條款。

For the fourth quarter 2022, adjusted EBITDA, excluding catastrophes, totaled $296 million or $39 million or 15% year-over-year and 19% on a constant currency basis. Our performance reflected improved results from both Global Housing and Global Lifestyle. Adjusted earnings per share, excluding reportable catastrophes, totaled $3.56 for the quarter, up 24% year-over-year.

2022 年第四季度，調整後的 EBITDA（不包括災難）總計 2.96 億美元或 3900 萬美元，同比增長 15%，按固定匯率計算為 19%。我們的表現反映了 Global Housing 和 Global Lifestyle 的業績有所改善。本季度調整後的每股收益（不包括可報告的災難）總計 3.56 美元，同比增長 24%。

Now let's move to segment results, starting with Global Lifestyle. The segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $166 million in the fourth quarter, a 6% increase year-over-year, but double that, or 12% on a constant currency basis. The increase was driven by higher Connected Living earnings, which grew 21% or 31% on a constant currency basis. Connected Living strong growth was primarily from 3 factors: first, reduced mobile service and repair expenses compared to the prior year period; second, continued modest mobile subscriber growth in North American device protection programs from carrier and cable operator clients; and third, higher investment income.

現在讓我們從 Global Lifestyle 開始細分結果。該部門報告稱，第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.66 億美元，同比增長 6%，但按固定匯率計算增長兩倍，即 12%。這一增長是由更高的互聯生活收入推動的，按固定匯率計算增長了 21% 或 31%。互聯生活的強勁增長主要來自三個因素：第一，與去年同期相比移動服務和維修費用減少；其次，來自運營商和有線電視運營商客戶的北美設備保護計劃的移動用戶持續適度增長；三是投資收益更高。

As expected, strong U.S. results were partially offset by continued weak performance in Europe and declines in Japan as programs mature. In device trading, we serviced 7.5 million devices in the fourth quarter, our highest quarterly volume this year. While volumes were strong, trading results declined as margins were pressured by device mix resulting from carrier promotions. Claims cost in Connected Living overall remain steady. Although we did see some pockets of higher costs from labor and materials within our extended service contract business.

正如預期的那樣，美國強勁的業績被歐洲持續疲軟的業績和日本隨著項目成熟而出現的下滑所部分抵消。在設備交易方面，我們在第四季度為 750 萬台設備提供服務，這是我們今年最高的季度交易量。雖然銷量強勁，但由於運營商促銷導致的設備組合對利潤率造成壓力，交易結果有所下降。互聯生活的理賠成本總體保持穩定。儘管我們確實看到我們的擴展服務合同業務中的勞動力和材料成本有所增加。

In Global Automotive, earnings decreased $7 million or 10%, primarily from weaker global performance and higher claims costs. In the U.S., a higher portion of higher claims costs are expected to be recovered over time from client contract structures. The earnings decrease was partially offset by domestic growth across distribution channels.

在全球汽車行業，收益減少 700 萬美元或 10%，主要是由於全球業績疲軟和索賠成本上升。在美國，隨著時間的推移，預計較高部分的較高索賠成本將從客戶合同結構中收回。收入下降部分被國內分銷渠道的增長所抵消。

Turning to net earned premium, fees and other income. Lifestyle was up $20 million, or 1% and 3% on a constant currency basis. This growth was primarily driven by Global Automotive, reflecting strong prior period sales of vehicle service contracts. When adjusting for unfavorable foreign exchange, Connected Living's net earned premiums, fees and other income increased slightly from growth in mobile subscribers in North America, partially offset by premium declines in mobile from runoff programs.

轉向淨收入保費、費用和其他收入。 Lifestyle 增長了 2000 萬美元，按固定匯率計算分別增長 1% 和 3%。這一增長主要由全球汽車業務推動，反映了前期車輛服務合同的強勁銷售。在對不利的外匯進行調整後，Connected Living 的淨收入保費、費用和其他收入因北美移動用戶的增長而略有增加，部分被決選計劃的移動保費下降所抵消。

Based on the new reporting structure for full year 2023, lifestyle adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow modestly from our revised 2022 baseline of $809 million, driven by both Connected Living and Global Automotive. Over the course of the year, we expect Connected Living to benefit from modest subscriber growth in existing North American mobile programs as well as increases in U.S. auto. The gradual ramp-up of our new mobile and connected home programs and expense savings from the previously announced restructuring plan should benefit results as we get into the second half of the year.

根據 2023 年全年的新報告結構，在互聯生活和全球汽車的推動下，生活方式調整後的 EBITDA 預計將從我們修訂後的 2022 年基準 8.09 億美元小幅增長。在這一年中，我們預計互聯生活將受益於現有北美移動計劃的適度用戶增長以及美國汽車的增長。隨著我們進入下半年，我們新的移動和聯網家庭計劃的逐步增加以及先前宣布的重組計劃帶來的費用節省應該有利於結果。

We do anticipate some continued headwinds to partially offset these growth drivers. These will be more pronounced in the first half of the year. Specifically, in 2022, we benefited from a number of favorable items that are not expected to recur. These included $24 million in investment income from real estate joint venture investments and $11 million from a client contract benefit.

我們確實預計一些持續的逆風將部分抵消這些增長動力。這些在上半年會更加明顯。具體來說，在2022年，我們受益於一些預計不會再發生的利好項目。其中包括來自房地產合資企業投資的 2400 萬美元投資收入和來自客戶合同收益的 1100 萬美元。

We also anticipate continued headwinds in our international business, particularly in the first half of the year given lower volumes in Europe and modest subscriber declines as programs mature in Japan. In addition, unfavorable foreign exchange, which will impact both the top and bottom lines. And finally, we anticipate continued higher claims costs particularly in extended service contracts as well as less favorable loss experience for select ancillary auto products.

我們還預計我們的國際業務將繼續面臨逆風，尤其是在今年上半年，因為歐洲的業務量較低，而隨著日本項目的成熟，訂戶數量也略有下降。此外，不利的外匯交易將影響頂線和底線。最後，我們預計索賠成本將繼續上升，尤其是在延長服務合同中，以及某些輔助汽車產品的損失體驗將更差。

In terms of net earned premiums, fees and other income for 2023, lifestyle is expected to grow modestly as growth in Global Automotive is offset by declines in Connected Living and ongoing foreign exchange headwinds. Connected Living will be impacted by the implementation of 2 new contract structures, which we estimate will lower top line in 2023 by $230 million. It is important to note, though, that these 2 changes will have no impact to our bottom line. Excluding these changes, we would anticipate growth in Connected Living net earned premiums, fees and other income.

就 2023 年的淨保費、費用和其他收入而言，生活方式預計將溫和增長，因為全球汽車的增長被互聯生活的下滑和持續的外匯逆風所抵消。互聯生活將受到 2 個新合同結構的實施的影響，我們估計這將使 2023 年的收入減少 2.3 億美元。不過，請務必注意，這兩項更改不會對我們的底線產生影響。排除這些變化，我們預計互聯生活淨賺保費、費用和其他收入將增長。

Moving now to Global Housing. Adjusted EBITDA was $135 million, which included $22 million of reportable catastrophes from winter storms and Hurricane Nicole during the quarter. Excluding catastrophe losses, adjusted EBITDA was $157 million, up $31 million or 25%. The increase was driven primarily by lender-placed insurance, partially offset by $15 million in higher non-cat loss experience across all major products, including Multifamily Housing. Lender-placed earnings significantly increased, accounting for most of the increase in housing's earnings from higher average insured values and premium rates as well as policy growth. In addition, expense savings and higher investment income contributed to the increase. These items were partially offset by higher cat reinsurance costs.

現在轉到全球住房。調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.35 億美元，其中包括本季度冬季風暴和颶風妮可造成的 2200 萬美元可報告災難。不包括巨災損失，調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.57 億美元，增加 3100 萬美元或 25%。這一增長主要是由貸方投保的保險推動的，部分被包括多戶住宅在內的所有主要產品的非巨災損失增加 1500 萬美元所抵消。貸方收入顯著增加，其中大部分來自平均保險價值和保險費率以及保單增長帶來的住房收入增長。此外，費用節省和更高的投資收入也推動了這一增長。這些項目被較高的巨災再保險成本部分抵消。

Based on the new reporting structure, for the full year 2023, we expect Global Housing adjusted EBITDA, excluding cats, to grow from a revised 2022 baseline of $417 million. Improved earnings performance is expected from 2 main drivers. First, top line growth from rate recovery and lender-placed; and second, ongoing expense actions to be realized over the course of the year. We expect ongoing elevated noncatastrophe losses, including higher seasonal weather-related claims in the first half and increased cat reinsurance costs to continue in 2023. Gradual improvement in lender-placed noncatastrophe losses is assumed later in the year. We also expect lower Multifamily Housing profitability from lower contributions from our affinity partners and higher non-cat losses as they return to more normalized levels.

根據新的報告結構，對於 2023 年全年，我們預計全球住房調整後的 EBITDA（不包括貓）將從修訂後的 2022 年基線 4.17 億美元增長。預計 2 個主要驅動因素將改善盈利表現。首先，利率回升和貸方配售帶來的營收增長；其次，將在一年中實現的持續支出行動。我們預計非災難性損失將持續增加，包括上半年季節性天氣相關索賠的增加以及巨災再保險成本的增加將在 2023 年繼續。假設貸方放置的非災難性損失將在今年晚些時候逐步改善。我們還預計，隨著我們親和合作夥伴的貢獻減少以及非巨災損失恢復到更正常的水平，多戶住宅的盈利能力將下降。

In terms of our cat reinsurance program, in January, we secured 2/3 of our 2023 program. Similar to much of the industry, we've seen significant price increases, but the cost is relatively in line with our expectations. We anticipate elevated pricing will continue in June when we place the final third of the full program and have reflected this in our outlook. Given the significant increase in reinsurance prices, and in order to optimize risk and return, we expect our per event retention level to increase to $125 million. This incorporates the growth in lender-placed exposure, primarily from inflation, partially offset by some declines in our international risk exposure.

就我們的巨災再保險計劃而言，1 月份，我們獲得了 2023 年計劃的 2/3。與許多行業類似，我們看到價格大幅上漲，但成本相對符合我們的預期。我們預計 6 月份將繼續提高定價，屆時我們將完成整個計劃的最後三分之一，並將其反映在我們的展望中。鑑於再保險價格的顯著上漲，並且為了優化風險和回報，我們預計我們的每次事件保留水平將增加到 1.25 億美元。這包括主要來自通貨膨脹的貸方風險敞口的增長，部分被我們國際風險敞口的下降所抵消。

Reflecting on these expected changes, we now believe the appropriate cat load for 2023 is $140 million. And finally, I'd also note that our outlook for housing assumes no meaningful deterioration in the broader U.S. housing market that would cause an increase in placement rates or a worsening of loss experience.

考慮到這些預期變化，我們現在認為 2023 年的適當巨災負荷為 1.4 億美元。最後，我還要指出，我們對住房的展望假設更廣泛的美國住房市場不會出現會導致安置率上升或損失體驗惡化的有意義的惡化。

Moving to Corporate. The fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA loss was $27 million, up $2 million, and was driven by lower investment income. For the full year 2023, we expect the Corporate adjusted EBITDA loss to be approximately $105 million.

搬到公司。第四季度調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 2700 萬美元，增加了 200 萬美元，這是由於投資收入下降所致。對於 2023 年全年，我們預計公司調整後的 EBITDA 虧損約為 1.05 億美元。

Turning to holding company liquidity. We ended the year with $446 million. In the fourth quarter, dividends from our operating segments totaled $89 million. In addition to our quarterly corporate and interest expenses, we also had outflows from 3 main items: $13 million of share repurchases, $38 million in common stock dividends and $81 million related to the 2 strategic acquisitions previously announced that will strengthen our position in the commercial equipment space.

轉向控股公司的流動性。我們以 4.46 億美元結束了這一年。第四季度，我們運營部門的股息總額為 8900 萬美元。除了我們的季度公司和利息支出外，我們還有 3 個主要項目的資金流出：1300 萬美元的股票回購、3800 萬美元的普通股股息以及與先前宣布的 2 項戰略收購相關的 8100 萬美元，這將加強我們在商業領域的地位裝備空間。

During 2022, lifestyle and housing contributed $550 million in dividends to the holding company. This was below our expectations given changes in investment portfolio values, reserve strengthening and accounting changes for noncore operations.

2022 年期間，生活方式和住房為控股公司貢獻了 5.5 億美元的股息。鑑於投資組合價值的變化、儲備加強和非核心業務的會計變化，這低於我們的預期。

In 2023, we expect our businesses to continue to generate meaningful cash flow. Cash conversion should approximate 65% of segment adjusted EBITDA, including reportable catastrophes. This accounts for the previously announced restructuring charges. This also assumes a continuation of the current economic environment and is subject to the growth of the business, investment portfolio performance and regulatory rating agency requirements.

到 2023 年，我們預計我們的業務將繼續產生有意義的現金流。現金轉換應約為部門調整後 EBITDA 的 65%，包括可報告的災難。這佔先前宣布的重組費用。這也假設當前的經濟環境將持續下去，並受業務增長、投資組合績效和監管評級機構要求的影響。

In summary, we continued our track record of profitable earnings growth and strong cash flow generation in 2022 despite some challenging conditions. And although we do expect to face continued macroeconomic uncertainty in 2023, we firmly believe we're well positioned to serve our current and future clients and customers and to continue to grow Assurant.

總而言之，儘管面臨一些挑戰，但我們在 2022 年繼續保持盈利增長和產生強勁現金流的記錄。儘管我們確實預計 2023 年將面臨持續的宏觀經濟不確定性，但我們堅信我們有能力為我們當前和未來的客戶和客戶提供服務，並繼續發展 Assurant。

And with that, operator, please open the call for questions.

有了這個，接線員，請打開問題電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of John Barnidge from Piper Sandler.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 John Barnidge。

There definitely seems to be a lot of conservatism in the outlook as it relates to the first half of the year. How different does your outlook differ for the first half versus the second half? And why does the second half give you confidence?

與今年上半年相關的前景中肯定有很多保守主義。您對上半年和下半年的看法有何不同？為什麼下半場會給你信心？

Great. Maybe just a couple of comments on '22, and then I'll talk about how we think about '23. So certainly happy with how we finished the year, obviously, a tremendous amount of change in the marketplace, very dynamic. And the fact that we were able to grow, not just EPS, but also grow EBITDA for the full year, really proud of the work done by the team to do that. And we do feel really well positioned as we think about our market position, how we're engaged with our clients. So expect that to continue as we roll forward.

偉大的。也許只是對 22 年的一些評論，然後我將談談我們對 23 年的看法。所以當然對我們今年結束的方式感到滿意，顯然，市場發生了巨大的變化，非常有活力。事實上，我們不僅能夠實現每股收益增長，還能實現全年 EBITDA 增長，我們為團隊為此所做的工作感到非常自豪。當我們考慮我們的市場地位，我們如何與客戶互動時，我們確實感覺自己處於有利地位。因此，希望隨著我們的前進，這種情況會繼續下去。

As we think about 2023, I guess there's a couple of things to remember. We certainly had some favorability, particularly in lifestyle in '22 that doesn't repeat. Richard mentioned about $35 million between real estate gains as well as the onetime client benefits. So we've got to grow our way through that into '23. We also expect continued foreign exchange pressure in our '23 outlook in lifestyle. And then on top of that, we do expect to grow, even though we've got some pressure certainly in the international markets, which we've talked about over the last couple of quarters.

當我們思考 2023 年時，我想有幾件事要記住。我們當然有一些好感，特別是在 22 年的生活方式中不會重複。理查德提到了大約 3500 萬美元的房地產收益和一次性客戶收益。所以我們必須通過它成長為'23。我們還預計我們的 23 世紀生活方式展望將繼續面臨外匯壓力。然後最重要的是，我們確實希望增長，儘管我們在國際市場上肯定有一些壓力，我們在過去幾個季度已經談到了這一點。

And then in terms of the housing business, obviously, a really strong fourth quarter. We're excited by the progress that our team has made, not just in terms of getting rate, adjusting average insured values, but also the work done on expenses, simplifying the organization, expect continued momentum as we head into '23. Obviously, there's a natural reset between Q4 and Q1 in the housing business. We typically see higher losses in the first quarter due to winter storms and seasonality.

然後就住房業務而言，很明顯，第四季度非常強勁。我們對我們的團隊所取得的進步感到興奮，不僅在獲得費率、調整平均保險價值方面，而且在費用方面所做的工作、簡化組織，預計在我們進入 23 年時會繼續保持勢頭。顯然，住房業務在第四季度和第一季度之間有一個自然的重置。由於冬季風暴和季節性因素，我們通常會在第一季度看到更高的損失。

We also had really favorable losses in Multifamily Housing in the first half of '22. That was a carryover from '21 as well. So we've got to overcome that as we think about the progression through the year. So again, expect each quarter to improve as we get through '23 and then accelerate growth into '24.

在 22 年上半年，我們在多戶住宅方面也遭受了非常可觀的損失。這也是 21 年的結轉。因此，當我們考慮這一年的進展時，我們必須克服這一點。因此，再次期待每個季度都會隨著我們度過 23 年而有所改善，然後加速增長到 24 年。

And then my follow-up question. It looks like there was growth in global mobile devices protected, serviced and global protected vehicles. Can you maybe talk about that: one, maybe the upgrade cycle, market positioning and then that trade-in issue that was occurring in the third quarter, that seems to have resolved itself?

然後是我的後續問題。全球移動設備保護、服務和全球保護車輛似乎有所增長。你能不能談談這個：第一，也許升級週期、市場定位以及第三季度發生的以舊換新問題似乎已經自行解決了？

Great. Yes. So I think if I start with auto, steady progress, as we've seen over many quarters in terms of protected vehicles, and that trend certainly has continued, and we continue to be well positioned there. On the mobile side, you're correct. We saw about -- pretty significant growth in the U.S. market. So if I look at devices protected up 300,000 sequentially, 500,000 of that is actually from growth domestically in the U.S. market, and that's offsetting some natural runoff that we have. So pretty strong growth in the U.S., great results in the U.S. for Connected Living overall for the year. And that's driven just by market share gains from the clients that we partner with on the insurance side.

偉大的。是的。因此，我認為，如果我從汽車開始，穩步取得進展，正如我們在受保護車輛方面已經看到的那樣，而且這種趨勢肯定會持續下去，我們將繼續在這方面處於有利地位。在移動端，你是對的。我們看到了——美國市場出現了相當顯著的增長。因此，如果我按順序查看受保護的 300,000 台設備，其中 500,000 台實際上來自美國市場的國內增長，這抵消了我們擁有的一些自然流失。美國的增長如此強勁，今年美國整體互聯生活取得了巨大成果。而這僅僅是由於我們在保險方面與之合作的客戶的市場份額增長所推動的。

So if you think about our device protection partners in the U.S., they're gaining roughly 70% of the net adds for postpaid customers. So that is helping us significantly in the U.S. market. And then we've got a little bit of softness internationally in terms of subscribers. I'd say a little bit of growth in Europe, offset by some declines in Latin America and then a little bit of softness in Japan, which we've talked about in the last couple of quarters.

因此，如果您考慮一下我們在美國的設備保護合作夥伴，他們將獲得大約 70% 的後付費客戶淨增長。所以這對我們在美國市場有很大幫助。然後，就訂戶而言，我們在國際上有一點疲軟。我會說歐洲的一點點增長，被拉丁美洲的一些下降所抵消，然後是日本的一點點疲軟，我們在過去幾個季度已經談到了這一點。

And then finally, on the trade-in point, we did see the issue resolve itself that we talked about in the third quarter. That did get resolved in the fourth quarter. We saw good volume growth flowing through. We saw some different margins in the business based on the mix of devices in certain client contracts, part of our fees are based on selling prices of devices. So sometimes you can have higher volume, but a potentially lower quality devices, and that can affect the ultimate margins in the business and move around from quarter-to-quarter.

最後，在以舊換新方面，我們確實看到我們在第三季度談到的問題自行解決。這確實在第四季度得到解決。我們看到了良好的銷量增長。根據某些客戶合同中的設備組合，我們在業務中看到了一些不同的利潤率，我們的部分費用是基於設備的售價。因此，有時您可能擁有更高的銷量，但可能質量較低的設備，這可能會影響業務的最終利潤率並在每個季度之間移動。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes from Truist Securities.

你的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。

Kind of along those lines, the 5G upgrade programs, I think you mentioned you're getting 70% of the net adds among your customers, that's an interesting number. Where do they stand in terms of the marketing, the push to get those 5G upgrades? Does that help? Or is that activity decelerating? How do you see it?

沿著這些思路，5G 升級計劃，我想你提到你在你的客戶中獲得了 70% 的淨增加，這是一個有趣的數字。他們在營銷和推動 5G 升級方面的立場如何？這有幫助嗎？還是該活動正在減速？你怎麼看？

Yes, I think we saw a little bit of lower marketing activity in the fourth quarter. There were certainly some supply constraints in the market. So that affected some of the traded promotional offers that we would normally see that can bounce around and be quite seasonal and also depending on the competitive nature of the market. But there's no doubt the push by carriers to move customers to 5G, to unlimited plans, to higher-end devices continues. We'll see how that evolves in '23. We obviously had a tremendous amount of trade-in activity in 2022, a relatively high watermark. Expect to see continued strength around that as we go forward. But it ebbs and flows, I would say, depending on the dynamics and the competitive landscape.

是的，我認為我們在第四季度看到了一些較低的營銷活動。市場上肯定存在一些供應限制。因此，這影響了我們通常會看到的一些交易促銷優惠，這些優惠可能會反彈並且非常季節性，並且還取決於市場的競爭性質。但毫無疑問，運營商將客戶轉移到 5G、無限計劃和更高端設備的努力仍在繼續。我們將在 23 年看到它是如何演變的。顯然，我們在 2022 年進行了大量的以舊換新活動，這是一個相對較高的水位線。期待在我們前進的過程中看到持續的力量。但它起伏不定，我想說，這取決於動態和競爭格局。

And in the coastal property markets, I think there's some reference to maybe a lender-placed being held in states like Florida, just because the standard policies are getting so expensive. Are you seeing a dynamic like that? Is that an opportunity for you? Do you think that will help push out placement rates in Florida and other coastal markets?

在沿海房地產市場，我認為有一些參考資料可能是在佛羅里達州等州舉行的放貸人，只是因為標準政策變得如此昂貴。你看到這樣的動態嗎？這對你來說是一個機會嗎？您認為這將有助於提高佛羅里達州和其他沿海市場的安置率嗎？

Yes. If you look at the fourth quarter, and we think about lender-placed, we had about 12,000 incremental policies come into the book. So we are seeing growth in in-force policies. I'd say half of that growth is we brought on a new client, which is why you'll see loans tracked up fairly significantly. And then the other half is entirely due to what I would say is the hard market. Florida is certainly a big chunk of that as well as California and other areas.

是的。如果你看一下第四季度，我們會考慮放款人，我們有大約 12,000 個增量保單進入賬簿。因此，我們看到了有效保單的增長。我想說增長的一半是我們帶來了一個新客戶，這就是為什麼你會看到貸款顯著增加的原因。然後另一半完全是由於我要說的硬市場。佛羅里達州以及加利福尼亞州和其他地區肯定是其中的很大一部分。

So I do think that is helping support policy growth. We saw a pretty strong policy growth for the full year in lender-placed. And none of that is really from deterioration in the economy more broadly where we might expect to see placement rates increase over time if there's a lot of pressure in the economy. It's all just the difficult insurance market. So it's definitely helping us. We're well priced with our products in those markets, and we feel we're well positioned to grow from it.

所以我確實認為這有助於支持政策增長。我們看到放貸人全年的保單增長相當強勁。而這一切都不是真正來自更廣泛的經濟惡化，如果經濟面臨很大壓力，我們可能會預計安置率會隨著時間的推移而增加。這只是困難的保險市場。所以它肯定對我們有幫助。我們的產品在這些市場上定價合理，我們覺得我們有能力從中發展。

Your next question comes from the line of Tommy McJoynt from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tommy McJoynt。

So first one, can you just go into a bit more detail on some of the drivers for pausing the buyback? I guess, I think of this business really holistically is less exposed to the -- some of the economic cyclicality. So it's a bit surprising to see that as the driver for pausing the capital distribution. So if you could just go into a little bit more detail on that, that would be great.

那麼首先，您能否更詳細地介紹一些暫停回購的驅動因素？我想，我認為這項業務真的從整體上來說不太容易受到一些經濟周期性的影響。因此，將其視為暫停資本分配的驅動因素有點令人驚訝。所以，如果你能更詳細地介紹一下，那就太好了。

Sure. And maybe I'll start, and certainly, Richard can chime in. But first and foremost, I would say our capital management philosophy, as an organization, has not changed. At third quarter, we signaled a disciplined approach that we wanted to exercise prudence. There's just a lot of market uncertainty today. It's been a pretty dynamic macro backdrop. So we're trying to exercise caution and make the best decisions we can with our capital. We've talked about this in the prepared remarks and consistently over time. We're definitely supporting the organic growth of the company. We still see lots of opportunity to grow organically. We want to protect our ratings, which are important to us. And then we've signaled -- we do think share buybacks will be an important part of our capital deployment strategy going forward.

當然。也許我會開始，理查德當然可以插話。但首先，我要說的是，作為一個組織，我們的資本管理理念沒有改變。在第三季度，我們發出了一種紀律嚴明的方法，我們希望謹慎行事。今天市場存在很多不確定性。這是一個非常動態的宏觀背景。因此，我們正在努力謹慎行事，並用我們的資金做出我們能做的最好的決定。隨著時間的推移，我們已經在準備好的評論中談到了這一點。我們絕對支持公司的有機增長。我們仍然看到很多有機增長的機會。我們想保護我們的評級，這對我們很重要。然後我們發出信號——我們確實認為股票回購將是我們未來資本部署戰略的重要組成部分。

We've talked about being balanced long term between capital deployment through share return and also M&A, but based on where we sit today, we think our shares are very attractive. And so I think about it as being prudent for the moment, getting better visibility, understanding how results are progressing and then making those rate decisions with all of that additional information as we head into the back half of the year.

我們已經討論過通過股票回報和併購在資本配置之間實現長期平衡，但根據我們今天的位置，我們認為我們的股票非常有吸引力。因此，我認為目前它是謹慎的，獲得更好的可見性，了解結果的進展情況，然後在我們進入今年下半年時根據所有這些額外信息做出這些利率決定。

But, Richard, what else might you add?

但是，理查德，你還能補充什麼？

Yes. Thanks, Keith. Yes, I think exactly what Keith said in terms of being prudent and really wanting to see how the macroeconomic environment plays out. I'd also add that, last year, in terms of returns of capital to shareholders, it was a high point for us with a return of about $720 million when we talk about share repurchases and dividends together. So we have shown and demonstrated over time that we won't sit on excess capital for a long time, but we do want to be prudent in the markets here. And if everything plays out, we would expect, at some point, to be back in maybe late in the second half, but we'll see how things go. We want to be prudent.

是的。謝謝，基思。是的，我認為基思所說的是謹慎的，並且真的想看看宏觀經濟環境如何發揮作用。我還要補充一點，去年，就股東的資本回報而言，當我們一起談論股票回購和股息時，我們的回報達到了約 7.2 億美元。因此，隨著時間的推移，我們已經表明並證明我們不會長期持有過剩資本，但我們確實希望在這裡的市場上保持謹慎。如果一切順利，我們預計在某個時候可能會在下半場晚些時候回歸，但我們會看看事情的進展。我們要謹慎。

And then just my other question, going back a little bit to the Connected Living side, you talked about being some of your partners with T-Mobile, Sprint (inaudible) Charter, Spectrum. Can you talk a little bit about the opportunity around Verizon, AT&T? And just kind of remind us what services you are providing for them and kind of what any kind of incremental opportunity might be?

然後是我的另一個問題，回到互聯生活方面，您談到了成為 T-Mobile、Sprint（聽不清）Charter、Spectrum 的一些合作夥伴。你能談談 Verizon 和 AT&T 周圍的機會嗎？只是提醒我們您為他們提供了哪些服務，以及什麼樣的增量機會可能是什麼？

Sure. So we do business with both Verizon and AT&T and support their trade-in business domestically in the U.S. So great partnerships, actually came through the HYLA acquisition, and there's certainly long-term opportunity. We talk about our business being built on deep client relationships with the world's leading brands. Those are certainly 2 examples of really, really important clients and brands that we can partner with. So no doubt there's opportunity over time to help them solve problems, innovate and create value for their customers. And we certainly work hard every day to serve them today, and then look for opportunities to grow with them in the future.

當然。因此，我們與 Verizon 和 AT&T 都有業務往來，並支持他們在美國國內的以舊換新業務。如此出色的合作夥伴關係，實際上是通過收購 HYLA 實現的，而且肯定有長期機會。我們談論我們的業務建立在與世界領先品牌深厚的客戶關係之上。這些當然是我們可以與之合作的非常非常重要的客戶和品牌的兩個例子。因此，毫無疑問，隨著時間的推移，他們有機會幫助他們解決問題、創新並為他們的客戶創造價值。我們當然每天都在努力工作，今天為他們服務，然後在未來尋找機會與他們一起成長。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS.

你的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

A couple of them here for you. First, I'm just curious, Richard, maybe, NII outlook here going forward in the Global Housing business? Or is there still potential upside given where new money rates are?

其中有幾個在這里為您服務。首先，我只是好奇，理查德，也許，NII 在全球住房業務中的前景如何？或者考慮到新的貨幣利率，是否仍有潛在的上行空間？

Yes. Thanks for the question, Brian. Yes, I think in terms of new money rates fixed income, we do see overall yields continuing to move up in the future as the portfolio rolls over and the lower yields that we've had in the past convert themselves into the new higher yield. So we will see that as we go forward over the next couple of years. So a nice tailwind for us. We've obviously seen short-term rates come up to. That's a nice tailwind for us. I would say that relative, if I think about '23 versus 2022, as Keith mentioned earlier and in our prepared remarks, we did have some good real estate gains during the course of the year. So I kind of look at it for 2023 that the increase in investment income will be a bit modest just given those 2 factors, increase in yields being offset by the real estate gains.

是的。謝謝你的問題，布賴恩。是的，我認為就新貨幣利率固定收益而言，我們確實看到隨著投資組合的滾動以及我們過去的較低收益率將自身轉化為新的更高收益率，未來整體收益率將繼續上升。因此，我們將在未來幾年內看到這一點。所以對我們來說是一個很好的順風。我們顯然已經看到短期利率上升。這對我們來說是一個很好的順風。我會說，相對而言，如果我考慮 23 年與 2022 年的對比，正如基思之前提到的和我們準備好的發言中所提到的，我們在這一年中確實取得了一些不錯的房地產收益。因此，我認為 2023 年投資收入的增長將略微考慮到這兩個因素，收益率的增長被房地產收益所抵消。

That makes sense. And then I guess my second question, Keith, you talked a little bit about the international markets and some pressure we're going to see in the first half of the year. I'm just curious what your thoughts are, and built in your expectations and guidance for kind of the domestic consumer here in the U.S. What do things look like potentially if we do go into a recession second half of the year?

這就說得通了。然後我想我的第二個問題，基思，你談到了國際市場和我們將在今年上半年看到的一些壓力。我只是想知道你的想法是什麼，以及你對美國國內消費者的期望和指導。如果我們在今年下半年陷入衰退，情況可能會是什麼樣子？

Yes. So our U.S. business has performed incredibly well if we think about where we're at in 2022. And we expect to continue to see growth going forward in '23. We obviously have to offset the onetime client benefit we talked about in Q3. But we do feel like, domestically, we're well positioned. If you think about the business, and I'll talk about mobile and then maybe auto quickly. On the mobile side, bulk of our economics are driven by the in-force subscribers that we protect. And as you saw that actually increased in the fourth quarter, consumers continue to want to protect their devices, and that's an in-force monthly subscription. So we don't see a lot of movement quarter-to-quarter and month-to-month. So we do feel like we're quite well protected there.

是的。因此，如果我們考慮到 2022 年的情況，我們的美國業務表現得非常好。我們預計 23 年將繼續看到增長。我們顯然必須抵消我們在第三季度談到的一次性客戶利益。但我們確實覺得，在國內，我們處於有利地位。如果你考慮業務，我會談談移動，然後可能很快就會談到汽車。在移動端，我們的大部分經濟活動都是由我們保護的有效用戶推動的。正如您所看到的，第四季度實際有所增加，消費者繼續希望保護他們的設備，這是一種有效的月度訂閱。所以我們沒有看到很多季度到季度和月度到月的變動。所以我們確實覺得我們在那裡受到了很好的保護。

To the extent there's less trade-in activity, if consumers are less incented to buy new devices because the economy is a little more pressured, we might see a little bit of softness in terms of that side of the business. It's not the biggest driver of total profitability, but it's still obviously an important factor. And then if you think about the auto business more broadly, we do expect sales of -- retail sales of cars to be relatively steady in '23 versus '22. A little more growth on new offset by softness on the used side, but probably 80% of the economics in '23 are from policies that have already been written that will earn through the book. So from that perspective, we're relatively well positioned, and we've done well through typical downturns in the economy in our product lines because it just puts more focus on the sale of these ancillary products with our partners.

在某種程度上，以舊換新活動較少，如果消費者因為經濟壓力更大而不太願意購買新設備，那麼我們可能會看到這方面的業務有所疲軟。它不是總盈利能力的最大驅動力，但顯然仍然是一個重要因素。然後，如果你更廣泛地考慮汽車業務，我們確實預計 23 年與 22 年的汽車零售額相對穩定。新產品的增長稍稍被舊產品的疲軟所抵消，但 23 年 80% 的經濟數據可能來自已經制定的政策，這些政策將通過這本書獲利。因此，從這個角度來看，我們處於相對有利的位置，並且我們在產品線的典型經濟衰退中做得很好，因為它只是更加關注與我們的合作夥伴一起銷售這些輔助產品。

Your next question comes from the line of Grace Carter from Bank of America.

你的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Grace Carter。

I've seen some forecast out there for potential lower smartphone shipments to the U.S. next year. And I was just wondering how the domestic Connected Living business might be affected if that were to happen, and just the extent to which that might be reflected in your outlook for next year?

我看到一些預測，明年美國的智能手機出貨量可能會下降。我只是想知道，如果發生這種情況，國內的互聯生活業務會受到怎樣的影響，以及這會在多大程度上反映在您對明年的展望中？

Yes, certainly, and I've seen the same reports. And like I said, that would definitely have an impact on trade-in volumes if there's less devices being purchased by consumers. I still expect to see a healthy number, certainly in '23 overall, but maybe a little bit muted from '22 levels. A lot of the growth that we're getting is because our clients are actually adding subscribers. So we're seeing that through the fourth quarter as well. So from a device protection point of view, we think we're well positioned there, and we have seen meaningful growth in the last quarter as a result of that.

是的，當然，我也看到了同樣的報導。就像我說的，如果消費者購買的設備減少，那肯定會對折價交易量產生影響。我仍然希望看到一個健康的數字，當然是在 23 年的總體水平，但可能與 22 年的水平相比有點低。我們獲得的很多增長是因為我們的客戶實際上在增加訂閱者。所以我們在第四季度也看到了這一點。因此，從設備保護的角度來看，我們認為我們在這方面處於有利地位，因此我們在上個季度看到了有意義的增長。

So I do feel like we'll see strength in domestic Connected Living. And obviously, that will drive to offset some of the other factors that we talked about in 2022. So we had some help in 2022 from the items we discussed. We've got to overcome foreign exchange. And domestically, we expect our business to perform well to allow us to generate that growth in '23.

所以我確實覺得我們會看到家庭互聯生活的力量。顯然，這將抵消我們在 2022 年討論的其他一些因素。因此，我們在 2022 年從我們討論的項目中獲得了一些幫助。我們必須克服外匯問題。在國內，我們希望我們的業務表現良好，使我們能夠在 23 年實現增長。

And on the housing side, kind of back to the question about the Florida market, how does the risk profile of the policies that you've been adding due just to the hard market dynamics compare versus the remainder of the book? And I was wondering if the recent reforms in Florida have any noticeable impact on the growth outlook for the housing book this year?

在住房方面，回到有關佛羅里達市場的問題，與本書的其餘部分相比，由於市場動態艱難而增加的政策的風險狀況如何？我想知道佛羅里達州最近的改革是否對今年住房賬簿的增長前景有任何顯著影響？

Yes. I think -- so certainly, the housing -- the reforms in Florida should be helpful to the industry over time without question and obviously looking to try to stabilize the insurance environment and really for the benefit of the end consumer try to control pricing over time. So I think, over time, that will benefit loss ratios and reduce some of the litigation. Obviously, that's not something that we're building into our forecast at this point. There's a lot of work yet to be done to see how that will roll through.

是的。我認為 - 當然，住房 - 佛羅里達州的改革應該毫無疑問地隨著時間的推移對該行業有所幫助，並且顯然希望嘗試穩定保險環境並且真正為了最終消費者的利益而嘗試隨著時間的推移控制價格.所以我認為，隨著時間的推移，這將有利於降低損失率並減少一些訴訟。顯然，這不是我們目前正在預測的內容。還有很多工作要做，看看這將如何實現。

I think growth in Florida for us is a positive thing. We're well priced and well positioned. And lender place is a scale business. We're tracking the loans already. So if we pick up some additional policies, we're not adding a tremendous amount of incremental expense. We've done an incredibly good job in housing in '22, actually driving down operational expenses year-over-year, even though we've seen policy growth, which demonstrates our focus on digital investments, but also the scale advantages of the business. So I think growth in Florida is a good thing for our business, and we're well positioned to take advantage of it over time.

我認為佛羅里達州的增長對我們來說是一件積極的事情。我們的價格和定位都很好。貸方是一家規模企業。我們已經在跟踪貸款了。因此，如果我們選擇一些額外的政策，我們就不會增加大量的增量費用。我們在 22 年的住房方面做得非常好，實際上同比降低了運營費用，儘管我們看到了政策增長，這表明我們專注於數字投資，但也體現了業務的規模優勢.因此，我認為佛羅里達州的增長對我們的業務來說是一件好事，而且我們有能力隨著時間的推移利用它。

And we have been getting (inaudible) as well. So as Keith said, it's -- we have been getting a little bit more, but it's -- from our point of view, it's good business. And the reforms, as you pointed out, should help over time.

我們也一直在（聽不清）。因此，正如基思所說，它是 - 我們得到了更多一點，但它 - 從我們的角度來看，這是一筆好生意。正如你所指出的，改革應該隨著時間的推移有所幫助。

(Operator Instructions) And we have a follow-up question from the line of Mark Hughes from Truist Securities.

（操作員說明）我們有來自 Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes 的後續問題。

The $15 million you talked about in higher non-cat losses on the property side, you really haven't mentioned inflation. But I wonder if there's any thoughts you've got how much of that may be weather, if you have already seen that or anticipated versus just materials, labor costs, things like that? And whether you are kind of over the hump on that? Or has there been any material inflection? Just how do you see it now?

你談到的 1500 萬美元在財產方面的非巨災損失增加，你真的沒有提到通貨膨脹。但我想知道您是否有任何想法，其中有多少可能是天氣，如果您已經看到或預期與材料、人工成本等相比？你是否有點不知所措？還是有任何實質性的轉折？你現在怎麼看？

Yes. Maybe I'll just start at a high level, Richard, and then you could add some color. But I definitely think we're -- from an inflationary perspective, we're still seeing elevated claims costs, there's no question. I think where we are seeing the favorability overall is really the rate rolling through from both rate increases and average insured values, and that is obviously offsetting some of that inflationary pressure. But we definitely see inflation still, that will persist and construction inflation is different yet again from other measures of inflation.

是的。也許我會從高層次開始，Richard，然後你可以添加一些顏色。但我絕對認為我們 - 從通貨膨脹的角度來看，我們仍然看到索賠成本上升，這是毫無疑問的。我認為我們看到的總體好感度實際上是從利率增長和平均保險價值中滾動而來的利率，這顯然抵消了部分通脹壓力。但我們肯定會看到通貨膨脹仍然存在，並且會持續存在，建築業通貨膨脹再次不同於其他通貨膨脹指標。

But what would you add, Richard?

但是你會補充什麼，理查德？

Yes, similar to what Keith said, I guess I would say that -- I would say most of it is in severity. I think severity these days, it's we think inflation. Actually, frequencies have been coming down just in terms of weather, whatever, we haven't been seeing an increase in smaller weather-related items. So more in severity. And as Keith said, we have been getting some price increases with that. We do the rate filings on an interim basis. So we think we're in a good position. We also think as we go forward this year, we're being prudent and I guess, appropriately prudent with regard to our expectations of inflation. Obviously, that's big headline out in the markets. We do see inflation staying a little bit resistantly high for the near term, but really coming down slowly as the year goes on. So we've kind of factored that into our analysis and should be in a good place there, not trying to go -- be too aggressive about bringing inflation down.

是的，與 Keith 所說的類似，我想我會這麼說——我會說其中大部分是嚴重的。我認為這些天的嚴重性，我們認為是通貨膨脹。實際上，就天氣而言，頻率一直在下降，無論如何，我們沒有看到與天氣相關的較小項目有所增加。所以更嚴重。正如基思所說，我們的價格一直在上漲。我們臨時進行利率申報。所以我們認為我們處於有利位置。我們還認為，隨著今年的前進，我們會保持謹慎，我想，在我們對通脹的預期方面，我們會保持謹慎。顯然，這是市場上的頭條新聞。我們確實看到通脹在短期內保持在一點點高位，但隨著時間的推移真正緩慢下降。因此，我們已經將這一點納入我們的分析，並且應該處於一個好的位置，而不是試圖去——過於積極地降低通脹。

Yes. And then one -- just one other point to make, and I referenced it earlier, we did see favorability -- set aside lender-placed for a second, we did see favorability of loss ratios in some of our other lines, renters and some specialty products, particularly in the first half of '22. We've seen that normalize over the balance of '22 to what are more natural levels. I think we were really at kind of pandemic level lows with respect to some of the losses that we were seeing. So that also will normalize. That puts a little pressure on the first half of the year for housing and then obviously, lender-placed where we're getting a lot of rate tries to help overcome that over the course of the year.

是的。然後 - 只是要說明的另一點，我之前提到過，我們確實看到了有利因素 - 暫時擱置貸方放置，我們確實看到了我們其他一些線路、承租人和一些線路的損失率的有利因素特色產品，特別是在 22 年上半年。我們已經看到將 22 年的平衡歸一化到更自然的水平。我認為就我們所看到的一些損失而言，我們確實處於大流行病的低谷。所以這也將正常化。這給今年上半年的住房帶來了一點壓力，然後很明顯，放貸人在我們獲得大量利率的地方試圖在這一年中幫助克服這一壓力。

And there are no further questions at this time. I'll turn it over to Keith Demmings for some final closing comments.

目前沒有其他問題。我將把它轉交給 Keith Demmings 作一些最後的結束評論。

Wonderful. Well, thanks, everybody, for participating in today's call. And obviously, we'll look forward to speaking to you all again at the end of the first quarter and our call in May. In the meantime, reach out to Suzanne Shepherd or Sean Moshier, if you have any other follow-up questions. But again, thanks for the time. Have a great day.

精彩的。嗯，謝謝大家參加今天的電話會議。顯然，我們期待在第一季度末和五月份的電話會議上再次與大家交談。同時，如果您有任何其他後續問題，請聯繫 Suzanne Shepherd 或 Sean Moshier。但再次感謝您的時間。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時請斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。