Assurant Inc (AIZ) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Assurant's Third Quarter 2022 Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Suzanne Shepherd, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability. You may begin.

歡迎參加 Assurant 2022 年第三季度電話會議和網絡直播。 （操作員說明）現在我很高興將發言權交給投資者關係和可持續發展高級副總裁 Suzanne Shepherd。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our third quarter 2022 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant's conference call are Keith Demmings, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Richard Dziadzio, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家早上好。我們期待今天與您討論我們 2022 年第三季度的業績。與我一起參加 Assurant 電話會議的有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Keith Demmings；和我們的首席財務官 Richard Dziadzio。

Yesterday, after the market closed, we issued a news release announcing our results for the third quarter of 2022. The release and corresponding financial supplement are available on assurant.com. We'll start today's call with remarks from Keith and Richard before moving into a Q&A session.

昨天，收市後，我們發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了我們 2022 年第三季度的業績。新聞稿和相應的財務補充資料可在 assurant.com 上獲取。在進入問答環節之前，我們將從 Keith 和 Richard 的發言開始今天的電話會議。

Some of the statements made today are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements are based upon our historical performance and current expectations and subject to risks uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements. Additional information regarding these factors can be found in yesterday's earnings release as well as in our SEC reports.

今天發表的一些聲明具有前瞻性。前瞻性陳述基於我們的歷史業績和當前預期，並受風險不確定性和其他因素的影響，這些因素可能導致實際結果與這些陳述預期的結果存在重大差異。有關這些因素的更多信息可以在昨天的收益發布以及我們的 SEC 報告中找到。

During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance. For more details on these measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the two, please refer to yesterday's news release and financial supplement that can be found on our website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非 GAAP 財務指標，我們認為這些指標對於評估公司業績很重要。有關這些措施的更多詳細信息、最具可比性的 GAAP 措施以及兩者的調節，請參閱昨天的新聞稿和可在我們網站上找到的財務補充資料。

I will now turn the call over to Keith.

我現在將把電話轉給基思。

Thanks, Suzanne, and good morning, everyone. As we previewed last week, our third quarter 2022 results came in below our expectations. This reflected a more challenging macroeconomic environment and lower contributions from Global Lifestyle. Following a very strong first half of the year, where we grew Lifestyle adjusted EBITDA by 14% year-over-year, this quarter had more significant headwinds internationally, including unfavorable foreign exchange, a modest uptick in claims and lower Connected Living program volumes.

謝謝，蘇珊娜，大家早上好。正如我們上週預測的那樣，我們 2022 年第三季度的業績低於我們的預期。這反映了更具挑戰性的宏觀經濟環境和來自環球生活的較低貢獻。繼今年上半年非常強勁，我們將生活方式調整後的 EBITDA 同比增長 14% 之後，本季度在國際上遇到了更大的阻力，包括不利的外匯、索賠小幅上升和互聯生活計劃數量下降。

While disappointing, our results don't change our view of the inherent growth momentum in the Lifestyle business. We believe the actions we're taking to drive additional expense savings will also better mitigate potential further deterioration in macro conditions. Looking at Global Housing, the segment's performance was in line with our expectations for the quarter. We're pleased with the progress we've made in not only increasing revenues through higher average insured values and rates but also the transformation actions we've taken to simplify the business and drive future growth.

雖然令人失望，但我們的結果並沒有改變我們對生活方式業務內在增長勢頭的看法。我們相信，我們為推動額外費用節省而採取的行動也將更好地緩解宏觀環境潛在的進一步惡化。看看全球住房，該部門的表現符合我們對本季度的預期。我們對我們在通過提高平均保險價值和費率增加收入以及我們為簡化業務和推動未來增長而採取的轉型行動方面取得的進展感到高興。

Looking at the year-to-date performance through the first 9 months of 2022, Assurant's reported adjusted EPS of $10.05 is up 7% for last year, and adjusted EBITDA of $832 million is down 4%, both excluding reportable catastrophes.

縱觀 2022 年前 9 個月的年初至今業績，Assurant 報告的調整後每股收益為 10.05 美元，比去年增長 7%，調整後的 EBITDA 為 8.32 億美元，下降 4%，均不包括可報告的災難。

As we evaluate our progress this year, we continue to believe we have a compelling strategy, strong fundamentals and momentum with clients as we continue to align with leading global brands and maintain market-leading positions across our key lines of business. For example, we announced a further multiyear extension of our long-standing partnership with T-Mobile. This important contract extension provides us with increased long-term visibility in our U.S. mobile business.

在評估今年的進展時，我們繼續相信我們擁有令人信服的戰略、強大的基本面和與客戶的良好勢頭，因為我們將繼續與全球領先品牌保持一致，並在我們的主要業務領域保持市場領先地位。例如，我們宣布將與 T-Mobile 的長期合作夥伴關係進一步延長多年。這一重要的合同延期為我們在美國移動業務中提供了更高的長期知名度。

At the same time, it gives us greater opportunity to increase repair volumes through our over 500 cellphone repair locations with the ability to leverage this capability with other U.S. clients. We've also made investments to support our product development around the connected home, and we continue to engage in encouraging dialogue with key clients, creating a long-term opportunity for growth. This also included supporting our largest U.S. retail client with the expanded relationship we announced earlier this year. While macroeconomic conditions in Europe are challenging, we continue to win new opportunities and recently expanded our global partnership with Samsung to launch Samsung Care Plus smartphone protection in 6 major European markets. We now offer this solution across 3 continents.

同時，它使我們有更多機會通過我們的 500 多個手機維修點增加維修量，並能夠利用與其他美國客戶的這種能力。我們還進行了投資以支持我們圍繞互聯家庭的產品開發，並且我們繼續與主要客戶進行鼓勵對話，創造長期增長機會。這還包括通過我們今年早些時候宣布的擴大關係來支持我們最大的美國零售客戶。儘管歐洲的宏觀經濟形勢充滿挑戰，但我們繼續贏得新的機遇，並且最近擴大了與三星的全球合作夥伴關係，在 6 個主要歐洲市場推出了 Samsung Care Plus 智能手機保護。我們現在在 3 個大洲提供此解決方案。

This momentum, combined with our partnerships with well-positioned global market leaders, should help us outperform through an economic downturn.

這種勢頭，再加上我們與處於有利地位的全球市場領導者的伙伴關係，應該會幫助我們在經濟低迷時期表現出色。

Turning to Global Housing. We've already begun a comprehensive transformational effort to position the business for long-term success, and we're pleased with our progress. Consistent with our practice of actively managing our portfolio of businesses and reviewing it for strategic fit, in addition to exiting commercial liability, we're eliminating our international housing catastrophe exposure. We don't see these businesses as core to our strategy or a path to leadership positions.

轉向全球住房。我們已經開始了一項全面的轉型努力，以使業務定位於長期成功，我們對我們的進展感到滿意。與我們積極管理我們的業務組合併審查其戰略契合度的做法一致，除了退出商業責任外，我們還消除了我們的國際住房災難風險。我們不認為這些業務是我們戰略的核心或通往領導地位的途徑。

As we execute these changes, we're designing a new organizational structure for Global Housing to better manage our risk businesses from our capital-light oriented businesses as part of our transformational agenda and also to realize greater efficiencies. We're finalizing our plans for implementation in 2023. As we reflect on Assurant's overall results to date and current market conditions, we now expect 2022 adjusted EPS, excluding catastrophes, to grow high single digits from $12.28 last year, driven by share repurchases and Global Lifestyle growth.

在我們執行這些變革時，我們正在為 Global Housing 設計一個新的組織結構，以更好地管理我們以輕資本為導向的業務的風險業務，作為我們轉型議程的一部分，並實現更高的效率。我們正在敲定 2023 年的實施計劃。在我們反思 Assurant 迄今為止的總體業績和當前市場狀況時，我們現在預計 2022 年調整後的每股收益（不包括災難）將從去年的 12.28 美元增長到高個位數，這得益於股票回購和全球生活方式的增長。

For the full year, we expect adjusted EBITDA, excluding catastrophes, will be down modestly to flat with 2021. This will be driven by high single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth for Lifestyle, even with additional macro headwinds. In fact, on a constant currency basis, we expect Global Lifestyle to finish 2022 aligned with our original Lifestyle expectations of low double-digit growth.

對於全年，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA（不包括災難）將小幅下降至與 2021 年持平。這將受到生活方式的高個位數調整後 EBITDA 增長的推動，即使存在額外的宏觀逆風。事實上，在固定匯率的基礎上，我們預計 Global Lifestyle 將在 2022 年結束，與我們最初對低兩位數增長的生活方式預期保持一致。

In Global Automotive, we still expect to outperform our initial expectations, driven by tailwinds from investment income and underlying growth in the business as we expand share with clients and add to our 54 million protected vehicles.

在全球汽車領域，隨著我們擴大與客戶的份額並增加我們的 5400 萬輛受保護車輛，在投資收入和業務潛在增長的推動下，我們仍然希望表現超出我們最初的預期。

For 2022, we continue to believe Global Housing will decrease by low to mid-teens, but we're pleased to see the initial improvements in our underlying results. From a capital perspective, we remain good stewards. Year-to-date, we have returned a total of $667 million of capital to shareholders, including proceeds from the sale of Preneed. And by year-end, we expect to close 2 small acquisitions for a total of approximately $80 million. These deals will strengthen our position in commercial equipment with attractively priced assets and minimal integration effort. Looking ahead, given macroeconomic volatility, we will exercise prudence in the near-term relative to capital deployment so that we can maintain maximum flexibility to continue to support our organic growth.

到 2022 年，我們仍然相信全球住房將減少 15% 至 15%，但我們很高興看到基本結果的初步改善。從資本的角度來看，我們仍然是好管家。年初至今，我們已向股東返還總計 6.67 億美元的資本，包括出售 Preneed 的收益。到年底，我們預計將完成 2 筆小型收購，總金額約為 8000 萬美元。這些交易將以極具吸引力的價格資產和最小的整合努力加強我們在商業設備中的地位。展望未來，鑑於宏觀經濟的波動性，我們將在短期內謹慎對待資本配置，以便我們能夠保持最大的靈活性，繼續支持我們的有機增長。

This doesn't change our conviction of the strong cash flow generation of our businesses, nor our view of the attractiveness of our stock but rather as a reflection of the uncertain macro environment. As the broader environment begins to stabilize and visibility improves, we'll evaluate capital deployment to maximize shareholder value. Looking to 2023, we are confident in the growth of our businesses. We expect both our Global Housing and Global Lifestyle adjusted EBITDA, ex cats, to increase year-over-year. To that end, we're taking decisive actions to mitigate headwinds while we maintain our relentless focus on growth.

這並沒有改變我們對我們業務產生強勁現金流的信念，也沒有改變我們對股票吸引力的看法，而是反映了不確定的宏觀環境。隨著更廣泛的環境開始穩定和知名度提高，我們將評估資本部署以最大化股東價值。展望2023年，我們對業務的增長充滿信心。我們預計我們的全球住房和全球生活方式調整後的 EBITDA（不包括貓）將同比增長。為此，我們正在採取果斷行動來緩解不利因素，同時繼續不懈地關注增長。

The Global Housing business is poised to grow in 2023, and we started to see evidence of that in the third quarter as rate increases flow through the book. In the long-term, the business should provide downside protection if we see a further deterioration in the U.S. economy.

全球住房業務有望在 2023 年增長，我們在第三季度開始看到這方面的證據，因為賬面利率上升。從長遠來看，如果我們看到美國經濟進一步惡化，企業應該提供下行保護。

We believe Global Lifestyle is positioned to grow in 2023. This is based on expectations of continued strong underlying growth momentum, even while factoring in lower international business volumes and increasing claims costs. We have also started several initiatives across the enterprise to drive greater operational efficiencies and leverage our economies of scale. We're now pushing even harder to realize incremental expense savings given the increasingly volatile market.

我們認為 Global Lifestyle 有望在 2023 年實現增長。這是基於對持續強勁的潛在增長勢頭的預期，即使考慮到較低的國際業務量和增加的理賠成本。我們還在整個企業範圍內啟動了多項舉措，以提高運營效率並利用我們的規模經濟。鑑於日益動蕩的市場，我們現在更加努力地實現增量費用節省。

We expect to finalize plans in the months ahead so that we can implement in 2023 and beyond. This includes optimizing our organizational structure and best aligning our talent, leveraging our global footprint to reduce labor costs where possible, continuing to review our real estate strategy, recognizing we have an increasingly more hybrid workforce and accelerating our adoption of digital solutions. Our digital-first strategies are yielding positive results in 2022, both in terms of delivering better customer experiences and meaningful savings. As part of our 2023 planning, we're taking steps to accelerate digital adoption and automate processes which will further reduce cost and improve the customer experience. We're also applying the same principles to drive greater automation and self-service throughout our functional areas.

我們預計將在未來幾個月內完成計劃，以便我們能夠在 2023 年及以後實施。這包括優化我們的組織結構和最好地調整我們的人才，利用我們的全球足跡盡可能降低勞動力成本，繼續審查我們的房地產戰略，認識到我們擁有越來越多的混合勞動力，並加速我們採用數字解決方案。我們的數字優先戰略將在 2022 年取得積極成果，無論是在提供更好的客戶體驗還是在顯著節省方面。作為我們 2023 年計劃的一部分，我們正在採取措施加速數字化採用和自動化流程，這將進一步降低成本並改善客戶體驗。我們還應用相同的原則在我們的各個職能領域推動更高程度的自動化和自助服務。

With this in mind and considering how the overall business environment has changed, we are reevaluating our long-term financial objectives shared at Investor Day. In February, we expect to share our 2023 outlook, also factoring in the most recent business trends and macro environment. This in no way changes our view on our business advantages, leadership aspirations or long-term growth potential. We continue to be well-positioned with industry-leading clients as we focus on key products and capabilities where we have market-leading advantages. We believe we have a compelling portfolio of businesses poised to outperform as we deliver on our vision to be the leading global business services provider supporting the advancement of the connected world.

考慮到這一點並考慮到整體商業環境的變化，我們正在重新評估我們在投資者日分享的長期財務目標。 2 月，我們預計將分享我們的 2023 年展望，同時考慮到最新的商業趨勢和宏觀環境。這絕不會改變我們對我們的業務優勢、領導力抱負或長期增長潛力的看法。由於我們專注於我們擁有市場領先優勢的關鍵產品和功能，因此我們繼續在行業領先的客戶中處於有利地位。我們相信，隨著我們實現成為支持互聯世界進步的全球領先商業服務提供商的願景，我們擁有令人信服的業務組合，有望超越市場。

I'll now turn the call over to Richard to review the third quarter results and our revised 2022 outlook in greater detail. Richard?

我現在將電話轉給理查德，以更詳細地審查第三季度業績和我們修訂後的 2022 年展望。理查德？

Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding catastrophes, totaled $240 million, down 11% from the third quarter of 2021. Our performance reflected weaker results in both Global Housing and Global Lifestyle. For the quarter, we reported adjusted earnings per share, excluding reportable catastrophes, of $2.81, down 8% from the prior-year period.

謝謝你，基思，大家早上好。調整後的 EBITDA（不包括災難）總計 2.4 億美元，比 2021 年第三季度下降 11%。我們的業績反映了全球住房和全球生活方式的較弱業績。本季度，我們報告調整後的每股收益（不包括可報告的災難）為 2.81 美元，比去年同期下降 8%。

Now let's move to segment results, starting with Global Lifestyle. This segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $166 million in the third quarter, a year-over-year decrease of 6%, driven primarily by Connected Living. Excluding an $11 million onetime client contract benefit in Connected Living, Lifestyle earnings decreased by $22 million. The Connected Living decline of $18 million was primarily from 4 factors: First, $7 million of unfavorable foreign exchange, mainly from the weakening of the Japanese yen; second, lower margins in our device trading business from lower volumes.

現在讓我們從 Global Lifestyle 開始細分結果。該部門報告稱，第三季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 1.66 億美元，同比下降 6%，主要受互聯生活的推動。不包括 Connected Living 的 1,100 萬美元一次性客戶合同收益，Lifestyle 收入減少了 2,200 萬美元。 Connected Living 減少 1800 萬美元主要來自 4 個因素：一是 700 萬美元的不利外匯，主要是日元走弱；其次，我們的設備交易業務的利潤率因交易量減少而降低。

However, this is expected to improve starting in the fourth quarter which we have already seen in October; third, our extended service contracts business was impacted by higher claims cost from wage and materials, and we did make some additional investments in Connected Home; and lastly, softer international volumes for mobile, particularly in Japan and Europe. The decline was partially offset by continued mobile subscriber growth in North America device protection programs from carrier and cable operator clients.

然而，從我們在 10 月份就已經看到的第四季度開始，這種情況有望得到改善；第三，我們的延期服務合同業務受到工資和材料索賠成本上升的影響，我們確實對 Connected Home 進行了一些額外投資；最後，國際移動業務量疲軟，尤其是在日本和歐洲。這一下降被運營商和有線電視運營商客戶的北美設備保護計劃的移動用戶持續增長所部分抵消。

In Global Automotive, earnings decreased $4 million or 6%, primarily from lower investment income and higher losses in Europe.

在全球汽車行業，收益減少 400 萬美元或 6%，主要是由於歐洲的投資收益減少和虧損增加。

Turning to revenue. Year-over-year, Lifestyle revenue was up by $29 million or 1%, driven by continued growth in Global Automotive. Global Automotive revenue increased 9%, reflecting strong prior period sales of vehicle service contracts. On a year-to-date basis, our net written premiums in auto were down 2%, demonstrating the resilience of the business relative to the broader U.S. auto market which contracted at a faster pace.

談到收入。受全球汽車業務持續增長的推動，Lifestyle 收入同比增長 2900 萬美元或 1%。全球汽車業務收入增長 9%，反映出前期車輛服務合同的強勁銷售。從年初至今，我們的汽車淨承保保費下降了 2%，表明該業務相對於收縮速度更快的更廣泛的美國汽車市場具有彈性。

Within Connected Living, revenue was down 4% year-over-year due to lower revenue in mobile, mainly from premium declines from runoff programs and unfavorable foreign exchange. This was partially offset by growth in subscribers in North America. In the third quarter, we serviced 7.1 million global mobile devices supported by new phone introductions and carrier promotions for the growing adoption of 5G devices.

在 Connected Living 中，收入同比下降 4%，原因是移動收入下降，主要原因是決選計劃的保費下降和不利的外匯。這部分被北美用戶的增長所抵消。在第三季度，我們為 710 萬台全球移動設備提供了服務，這些設備受到新手機推出和運營商促銷活動的支持，以促進 5G 設備的日益普及。

For the full year 2022, we now expect Lifestyle adjusted EBITDA to grow high single digits compared to 2021, led by double-digit mobile expansion and Global Automotive growth. Earnings in the fourth quarter should grow year-over-year, mainly from growth in Connected Living.

對於 2022 年全年，我們現在預計，與 2021 年相比，生活方式調整後的 EBITDA 將實現高個位數增長，這主要得益於兩位數的移動業務擴張和全球汽車業務增長。第四季度的收益應該會同比增長，主要來自互聯生活的增長。

Moving to Global Housing. The adjusted EBITDA loss was $25 million, which included $124 million of reportable catastrophes. As a retention level event, Hurricane Ian was the primary driver of reportable catastrophes in the quarter along with the associated restatement premiums. Excluding catastrophe losses, adjusted EBITDA was $99 million, down $18 million or 15%. The decrease was driven primarily by approximately $38 million in higher non-cat loss experience across all major products, including approximately $24 million of prior period reserve strengthening.

搬到全球住房。調整後的 EBITDA 損失為 2500 萬美元，其中包括 1.24 億美元的可報告災難。作為保留級別事件，颶風伊恩是本季度可報告災難以及相關重述保費的主要驅動因素。不計巨災損失，調整後的 EBITDA 為 9900 萬美元，下降 1800 萬美元或 15%。減少的主要原因是所有主要產品的非巨災損失增加了約 3,800 萬美元，包括前期儲備增加約 2,400 萬美元。

Lender-placed earnings were flat as elevated loss experience and $13 million of higher catastrophe reinsurance costs were largely offset by higher average insured values and premium rates. The placement rate increased 9 basis points sequentially, mainly from client portfolio additions having a higher average placement rate. The increase is not a reflection of a deterioration in the U.S. mortgage landscape.

由於損失經驗增加和 1300 萬美元的更高巨災再保險成本在很大程度上被更高的平均保險價值和保險費率抵消，貸方收益持平。配售率環比上升 9 個基點，主要來自平均配售率較高的客戶組合增加。這一增長並不反映美國抵押貸款環境的惡化。

Multifamily housing increased non-cat losses, including some reserve strengthening and an increase in expenses from ongoing investments to expand our capabilities and strengthen our customer experience resulted in lower profitability. Global Housing revenue increased 3% from growth within several specialty offerings as well as higher average insured values and premium rates in lender-placed. This was partially offset by higher catastrophe reinsurance costs noted earlier from Hurricane Ian.

多戶住宅增加了非巨災損失，包括一些儲備加強和持續投資的支出增加，以擴大我們的能力和加強我們的客戶體驗，導致盈利能力下降。全球住房收入增長了 3%，原因是幾項專業產品的增長以及更高的平均保險價值和貸方放置的保險費率。這被颶風伊恩早些時候提到的更高的巨災再保險成本部分抵消了。

For the full year, we expect Global Housing adjusted EBITDA, excluding cats, to decline by low to mid-teens from 2021 with an increasing benefit in the fourth quarter from higher AIVs and rate. We're also evaluating our catastrophe reinsurance program as we approach the January 1 purchase to ensure we optimize risk and return. This may include increasing our retention level, reflecting the growth of the book of business stemming from inflation. In the meantime, we believe the implemented rate adjustments will result in higher premiums that can help to mitigate the increase in cat reinsurance costs.

就全年而言，我們預計全球住房調整後的 EBITDA（不包括貓）將從 2021 年開始下降至十幾歲左右，第四季度受益於更高的 AIV 和利率。我們還在評估我們的巨災再保險計劃，因為我們接近 1 月 1 日的購買，以確保我們優化風險和回報。這可能包括提高我們的保留水平，以反映通貨膨脹導致的業務增長。與此同時，我們認為實施的費率調整將導致更高的保費，這有助於緩解巨災再保險成本的增加。

At Corporate, the adjusted EBITDA loss was $25 million, up $2 million, driven by lower investment income. For the full year, we continue to expect Corporate adjusted EBITDA loss to be approximately $105 million.

在公司，調整後的 EBITDA 損失為 2500 萬美元，增加了 200 萬美元，這是由於投資收入下降所致。對於全年，我們繼續預計公司調整後的 EBITDA 虧損約為 1.05 億美元。

Turning now to holding company liquidity. We ended the third quarter with $529 million, $304 million above our current minimum target level. In the third quarter, dividends from our operating segments totaled $143 million. In addition to our quarterly corporate and interest expenses, we also had outflows from 3 main items: $80 million of share repurchases, $37 million of common stock dividends and $6 million mainly related to Assurant Venture investments.

現在轉向控股公司的流動性。我們以 5.29 億美元結束了第三季度，比我們目前的最低目標水平高出 3.04 億美元。第三季度，我們運營部門的股息總額為 1.43 億美元。除了我們的季度公司和利息支出外，我們還有 3 個主要項目的資金流出：8000 萬美元的股票回購、3700 萬美元的普通股股息和主要與 Assurant Venture 投資相關的 600 萬美元。

For the full year, in addition to the $365 million of Preneed proceeds, we expect incremental share repurchases to be on the lower end of our targeted range of $200 million to $300 million. As always, segment dividends are subject to the growth of the businesses, investment portfolio performance and rating agency and regulatory capital requirements.

對於全年，除了 3.65 億美元的 Preneed 收益外，我們預計增量股票回購將處於我們 2 億美元至 3 億美元目標範圍的下限。一如既往，分部股息取決於業務增長、投資組合業績以及評級機構和監管資本要求。

Turning to future capital deployment. Our objective continues to be to maintain our strong financial position while continuing to invest in our future organic growth. However, given the interest rate volatility and uncertain global macro environment, we plan to be prudent relative to capital deployment in the near future.

轉向未來的資本配置。我們的目標仍然是保持我們強大的財務狀況，同時繼續投資於我們未來的有機增長。然而，鑑於利率波動和全球宏觀環境的不確定性，我們計劃在近期內相對於資本配置保持謹慎。

In conclusion, while our third quarter results were disappointing, we are confident that our fourth quarter results will improve. And with the additional actions we are taking to grow the top line and leverage our expense base, we are positioning ourselves for growth into 2023.

總之，雖然我們第三季度的業績令人失望，但我們相信第四季度的業績將會有所改善。通過我們為增加收入和利用我們的費用基礎而採取的額外行動，我們正在為 2023 年的增長做好準備。

And with that, operator, please open the call for questions.

有了這個，接線員，請打開問題電話。

(Operator Instructions) And your first question comes from the line of Mike Phillips from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的邁克菲利普斯。

I guess I want to touch on the comments on 2023. You mentioned you expect growth in both segments, as I compare that to the stuff you gave in February, where you were pretty specific with the financial objectives of -- you gave certain numbers by segment of EBITDA growth.

我想我想談談關於 2023 年的評論。你提到你預計這兩個細分市場都會增長，因為我將其與你在 2 月份給出的東西進行了比較，你在 2 月份給出了非常具體的財務目標 - 你給出了某些數字EBITDA 增長的一部分。

Here, you were -- I believe you said you want to reevaluate that. And it sounds like you're also expecting a Lifestyle continue to higher claim cost. So kind of want to kind of marry those and make sure we're not reading too much into your wording of reevaluating 2023 growth as compared to your objectives before.

在這裡，你 - 我相信你說過你想重新評估它。聽起來您還期望 Lifestyle 繼續提高索賠成本。所以有點想把那些結合起來，並確保我們不會過多地解讀你重新評估 2023 年增長與你之前的目標相比的措辭。

Okay. Yes. Maybe I can try to tackle that a couple of ways. So if you think about the outlook for 2022, if we just start with that, obviously, we're below what we expected originally from Investor Day, largely driven by the decline in the housing business as it relates to inflation, which we talked a lot about last quarter.

好的。是的。也許我可以嘗試用幾種方法來解決這個問題。因此，如果您考慮 2022 年的前景，如果我們只是以此為起點，顯然，我們低於我們最初在投資者日的預期，這主要是由於與通貨膨脹相關的住房業務下滑，我們談到了通貨膨脹很多關於上個季度。

We had also expected Lifestyle to even outperform our original expectations. When we think back to where we started the year and kind of what we signaled last quarter, obviously, we saw a softer Q3 in Lifestyle. We still expect Lifestyle to generate strong growth as we think about 2022. So we talked about high single-digit growth in Lifestyle, but that's overcoming relatively significant foreign exchange rates.

我們還曾預計 Lifestyle 的表現甚至會超出我們最初的預期。當我們回想我們今年的起點以及我們上個季度發出的信號時，很明顯，我們看到了 Lifestyle 的第 3 季度較為疲軟。我們仍然預計 Lifestyle 會在 2022 年實現強勁增長。因此我們談到了 Lifestyle 的高個位數增長，但這克服了相對顯著的匯率。

If you think about constant currency basis, we expect to be in the low double-digit range, which was underpinning our Lifestyle Investor Day commentary. I would say that because housing is behind and Lifestyle is sort of in line, but not outperforming as significantly as we had hoped last quarter, and we can talk about the third quarter. We've said it's prudent for us to close the year, evaluate how we finish, look at the trends as we think about '23 and '24. There's a tremendous amount of turmoil in the global economy and the macro environment.

如果你考慮固定貨幣基礎，我們預計會處於較低的兩位數範圍內，這是我們生活方式投資者日評論的基礎。我會這麼說，因為住房落後了，生活方式有點符合要求，但表現不如我們上個季度所希望的那麼明顯，我們可以談談第三季度。我們已經說過，在我們考慮 23 年和 24 年的時候，我們應該謹慎地結束這一年，評估我們如何完成，看看趨勢。全球經濟和宏觀環境存在巨大動盪。

So trying to make sure we take all of that into account, set our outlook for 2023 that will also be based on the expense actions which we're taking in the fourth quarter. We do expect international softness to continue. I think foreign exchange will be a pressure. Claims costs are rising, not a huge part of the Lifestyle story, but still important. We're trying to take expense actions to offset that pressure and I think prudent for us to revisit and think about those longer-term commitments to make sure that we're being as transparent as we can with the market.

因此，為了確保我們考慮到所有這些因素，設定我們對 2023 年的展望，該展望也將基於我們在第四季度採取的支出行動。我們確實預計國際市場將繼續疲軟。我認為外匯會是一個壓力。理賠成本正在上升，這不是 Lifestyle 故事的重要組成部分，但仍然很重要。我們正在努力採取開支行動來抵消這種壓力，我認為謹慎的做法是重新審視和考慮這些長期承諾，以確保我們對市場盡可能透明。

Okay. I think that makes sense. I guess, when you looked at the -- in this quarter, one of the segments in the Lifestyle was the mobile margins, and you talked about how that's not going to continue and kind of revert, I guess you mean in the fourth quarter. Can you talk about why that is?

好的。我認為這是有道理的。我想，當你看到 - 在這個季度，生活方式的一個部分是移動利潤率，你談到瞭如何不會繼續並且有點回歸，我想你的意思是在第四季度。你能談談這是為什麼嗎？

Yes. So there's a couple of things. If I think about the third quarter for Lifestyle, we certainly expected results in the third quarter to be lower than what we saw in the first half. So that wasn't surprising. But obviously, they came in even lower than we were expecting.

是的。所以有幾件事。如果我考慮 Lifestyle 的第三季度，我們當然預計第三季度的結果會低於我們上半年看到的結果。所以這並不奇怪。但顯然，他們的收入甚至低於我們的預期。

Maybe I'll unpack why we would have thought they would have been lower to start with and then what happened in the quarter. So I would say, as we thought about Q3, we knew there'd be more losses in mobile from seasonality. We tend to see higher claims in the summer months, particularly for the clients where we're on risk. So that certainly happened and we saw an elevated level of claims beyond what we were expecting in the third quarter.

也許我會解釋為什麼我們會認為它們一開始會更低，然後是本季度發生的事情。所以我想說，當我們考慮第三季度時，我們知道季節性會帶來更多的移動損失。我們往往會在夏季月份看到更高的索賠，特別是對於我們處於風險中的客戶。所以這肯定發生了，我們看到第三季度的索賠水平超出了我們的預期。

If you think about the first half of the year, we saw tremendous favorability around mobile losses. So frequency of claims is lower than historic levels. We've done a really good job managing severity, a lot of efficiency in our supply chain, but also leveraging walk-in repair as well to drive down severity of claims. And we thought that, that positive trend line would continue in third quarter. There's a little bit of a reversal, mainly around the cost of acquiring devices when we had to do replacement devices and just the sort of the mix of inventory that we had. We expect to see that normalize more into the fourth quarter and beyond.

如果你想想今年上半年，我們看到了對移動損失的巨大支持。因此，索賠頻率低於歷史水平。我們在管理嚴重性方面做得非常好，我們的供應鏈效率很高，而且還利用步入式維修來降低索賠的嚴重性。我們認為，積極的趨勢線將在第三季度繼續。有一點逆轉，主要是圍繞我們不得不更換設備時購買設備的成本，以及我們擁有的那種庫存組合。我們希望看到這種情況在第四季度及以後更加正常化。

When I think about mobile losses year-to-date, pretty in line with what we would have expected at the beginning of the year, very much in line with what we saw in 2021. So choppiness between really strong favorability in the first half and then some softness in the third quarter.

當我考慮今年迄今的移動損失時，這與我們年初的預期非常一致，非常符合我們在 2021 年看到的情況。然後在第三季度有些疲軟。

We also saw accelerated investments around the Connected Home in Q3, which we knew would continue. And we had some favorability in the first half with investment income in auto, which we knew wouldn't continue. So we certainly expected Q3 to be down, but in terms of the miss to our expectations, I would say 50% of that miss is broadly international, a combination of FX and softer volumes in a softer economy, particularly in Europe and Japan. And then about half of it was domestic trade in margins, which was probably more of a timing point in terms of devices being delayed to be received in our depots, and that will reverse itself in the fourth quarter.

我們還看到第三季度圍繞互聯家庭的投資加速，我們知道這會繼續下去。上半年我們在汽車投資收益方面獲得了一定的青睞，我們知道這種情況不會持續下去。所以我們當然預計第三季度會下降，但就我們預期的失誤而言，我想說 50% 的失誤主要是國際性的，這是外彙和經濟疲軟導致交易量疲軟的結合，尤其是在歐洲和日本。然後大約一半是利潤率的國內貿易，就設備延遲到我們的倉庫接收而言，這可能更像是一個時間點，並且這將在第四季度逆轉。

I talked about the mobile losses being another driver. And then we saw a little bit of loss pressure on the [ESC] portfolio, not a huge number, but certainly, there's inflation in the system, and that's flowing through.

我談到了移動損失是另一個驅動因素。然後我們看到 [ESC] 投資組合有一點損失壓力，不是很大，但可以肯定的是，系統中存在通貨膨脹，並且正在流動。

Your next question comes from the line of Tommy McJoynt from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tommy McJoynt。

So just maybe stepping back a little bit and thinking from a high level, just thinking about the step down, I guess, in this year's guidance from perhaps like a 6 months ago back in May, we've seen kind of 2 sequential steps down. So can you just kind of frame how much of that step down has come from -- is expected loss cost, the claims inflation side versus perhaps just a lower demand for your products and services, I guess, over in Europe and then a little bit domestically? So if you were just trying to bucket into those 2 categories, the step down in guidance over the year, how would you do that?

所以也許退後一步，從高層次思考，只是考慮下台，我想，在今年 6 個月前的 5 月份的指導中，我們已經看到了 2 個連續的下台.那麼你能不能大致說明這種下降有多少來自預期損失成本，索賠通脹方面與可能只是對你的產品和服務的較低需求，我猜，在歐洲，然後是一點點在國內？因此，如果您只是想將這兩個類別歸為一類，即一年中指導的下降，您會怎麼做？

Yes. I think when we sat here at the end of the second quarter, we certainly saw pressure in the housing business, no question. That was the driver of the step down last quarter, offset by really, really strong first half. We think about Lifestyle record year in 2021 and then an incredibly robust first half. We projected that trend line would continue and that favorability would continue. I'd say the adjustment that we're talking about now is entirely sort of backing out that favorability for the full year from Lifestyle. So Lifestyle, like I said, it's going to come in very much in line with our original expectations from Investor Day from the beginning of the year, and the real impact is FX.

是的。我認為，當我們在第二季度末坐在這裡時，毫無疑問，我們確實看到了住房業務的壓力。這是上個季度下降的驅動因素，被上半場非常、非常強勁的表現所抵消。我們考慮 2021 年創紀錄的 Lifestyle 年度，然後是令人難以置信的強勁上半年。我們預計該趨勢線將繼續存在，並且這種青睞將繼續存在。我想說的是，我們現在談論的調整完全是為了抵消 Lifestyle 對全年的青睞。所以生活方式，就像我說的，它會非常符合我們從年初開始投資者日的最初預期，真正的影響是外匯。

If I think about Lifestyle overall, I would say, domestic Connected Living will finish the year very much in line with what we had expected. So a really strong year, really robust growth. Global Auto will be ahead of what we originally expected, mainly driven by investment income, which we've talked about being a nice tailwind for the auto business. That favorability in auto, I would say, offset by softness in underlying international business results, mainly in Europe, a little bit of pressure in Japan.

如果我從整體上考慮生活方式，我會說，家庭互聯生活將在今年結束時非常符合我們的預期。所以這是非常強勁的一年，非常強勁的增長。 Global Auto 將超過我們最初的預期，主要受投資收入的推動，我們已經談到這對汽車業務來說是一個很好的順風。我想說的是，汽車業的這種優勢被主要在歐洲的基本國際業務業績疲軟所抵消，日本也有一點壓力。

And then we've got FX layered on top of that. But again, ignoring FX, pretty much in line and I'd say auto outperforming and offsetting softness internationally. And then housing is very much in line with expectations. If we think about what we expected in the third quarter, housing came in very much in line. We've made tremendous progress to transform housing. We've reacted with urgency. I'm really proud of the way the team has come together.

然後我們將 FX 置於其上。但同樣，忽略外匯，幾乎一致，我會說汽車在國際上表現出色並抵消了疲軟。然後住房非常符合預期。如果我們考慮一下我們對第三季度的預期，住房市場的表現非常符合預期。我們在改造住房方面取得了巨大進展。我們已做出緊急反應。我真的為團隊走到一起的方式感到自豪。

We've simplified the focus. You saw the exit of sharing economy. We've signaled the exit of international housing-related cat business. We're implementing a new org design to delineate between our housing risk and capital light to increase our focus, drive even more efficiency. And then just a tremendous amount of work on offsetting inflation, not just with expense discipline and prudence, but the work with AIVs that has started to take hold a little bit this quarter. A lot of progress on rate, 31 approved rates with States that are implemented in '22, several more for early '23.

我們簡化了焦點。你看到了共享經濟的出口。我們已經發出退出國際住房相關貓業務的信號。我們正在實施一個新的組織設計來區分我們的住房風險和資本燈，以增加我們的注意力，提高效率。然後是在抵消通貨膨脹方面的大量工作，不僅僅是開支紀律和審慎，還有與 AIV 相關的工作在本季度開始發揮作用。在費率方面取得了很大進展，31 個州在 22 年實施了 31 個批准的費率，23 年初還有幾個。

So just a lot of progress there, and I'd say housing pretty much in line as we think about what we said last quarter.

因此，那裡取得了很多進展，我想說的是，在我們考慮上個季度所說的內容時，住房幾乎是一致的。

And to follow up on that, what gives you guys confidence that some of the weaker pressures over in Europe and Japan might not spill over into the North American side?

接下來，是什麼讓你們相信歐洲和日本的一些較弱的壓力可能不會蔓延到北美方面？

Yes. We certainly expect the pressure in Europe and in Japan to continue. I would say, obviously, they're both profitable markets for us. Japan has been an incredible success story. And I think even though there's some softness in the economy, we're very well-positioned in the market, and there's a tremendous long-term opportunity for growth and our team is doing an incredible job.

是的。我們當然預計歐洲和日本的壓力將繼續存在。我會說，顯然，它們對我們來說都是有利可圖的市場。日本是一個令人難以置信的成功故事。而且我認為，儘管經濟有些疲軟，但我們在市場上處於非常有利的地位，並且存在巨大的長期增長機會，我們的團隊正在做著令人難以置信的工作。

So I feel really good long term about our position there. Europe is even more challenged, obviously, with the economy and with FX in that marketplace. So that -- we're seeing some softness. I think that persists and continues. We're taking actions to make sure we're simplifying our focus, rationalizing our expense base. But nothing that we're going to do is going to destroy long-term value, disrupt what we do with clients or customers.

因此，從長遠來看，我對我們在那裡的地位感覺非常好。顯然，歐洲在該市場的經濟和外匯方面面臨更大的挑戰。所以——我們看到了一些疲軟。我認為這種情況會持續下去。我們正在採取行動，以確保我們正在簡化我們的重點，使我們的費用基礎合理化。但我們要做的任何事情都不會破壞長期價值，破壞我們與客戶或客戶所做的事情。

And then in North America, we've actually seen really robust results. Our subscriber counts on mobile in North America postpaid are up sequentially. They're up year-over-year, obviously, with the T-Mobile acquisition of Sprint. But good momentum. Our clients are growing. If you think about our device protection clients in the U.S. on the postpaid side, they're gaining a lot of net adds. I think 70% of the net adds are coming through our client -- the client partnerships that we have.

然後在北美，我們實際上看到了非常強勁的結果。我們在北美的後付費移動用戶數依次上升。很明顯，隨著 T-Mobile 對 Sprint 的收購，它們同比增長。但勢頭不錯。我們的客戶在增長。如果你想想我們在美國的設備保護客戶在後付費方面，他們獲得了很多淨增加。我認為 70% 的淨增加來自我們的客戶——我們擁有的客戶合作夥伴關係。

So that bodes well for device protection, and then trade-in continues to be strong as there's a lot of competition in the broader market, particularly domestically.

因此，這預示著設備保護的好兆頭，然後以舊換新繼續保持強勁勢頭，因為在更廣闊的市場上，尤其是在國內，存在著很多競爭。

Got it. And then just last 1 for me. In housing, you recorded the prior period development of $24 million but the full year guidance for housing didn't change. So was that prior period development already anticipated in the guidance?

知道了。然後對我來說只是最後一個。在住房方面，你記錄了 2400 萬美元的前期開發，但住房的全年指導沒有改變。那麼指南中是否已經預期了前期發展？

So I think that we certainly expected higher claims cost in the quarter, and that came through in prior period development versus current accident quarter development. And maybe Richard can share some highlights on that. But I would say that the offset to the prior period development was the significance that we saw both in terms of rate, from AIVs a little bit, but mainly from all the rate adjustments that we've made over the course of last year, and then policy growth.

因此，我認為我們當然預計本季度會有更高的索賠成本，這是在前期發展與當前事故季度發展中實現的。或許 Richard 可以分享一些重點。但我要說的是，對前期發展的抵消是我們在利率方面看到的重要性，從 AIV 來看，但主要是從我們去年所做的所有利率調整中，以及然後是政策增長。

We've got 26,000 incremental LPI policies that came through in the quarter as well, which we can talk about. But maybe, Richard, talk a little bit about the prior period.

我們也有 26,000 個增量 LPI 政策在本季度通過，我們可以討論。但也許，理查德，談談前期。

Yes, exactly. I think you nailed it. In terms of the prior period development, obviously, when we closed Q2, we put some prior period development in and the best number and our best estimate. On the other hand, when we were looking at our outlook, we said inflation is high. Let's just assume inflation is going to stay at a very high level. So we kind of, I would say, hedged our bets in terms of where the total loss ratio could go at the end of this year, call it, not really prior period development, but just all-in loss cost.

對，就是這樣。我想你成功了。就前期發展而言，顯然，當我們關閉第二季度時，我們將一些前期發展納入最佳數字和最佳估計。另一方面，當我們審視我們的前景時，我們說通貨膨脹率很高。讓我們假設通貨膨脹將保持在非常高的水平。因此，我想說，我們在今年年底的總損失率方面對沖了我們的賭注，稱之為，不是真正的前期開發，而是全部損失成本。

So that came through and we're in a decent place there, and that was able to absorb some of the prior period development. Of the prior period development, I would say 14 was this year. So it's really just a movement within the calendar year and 10 for the prior years.

這樣就實現了，我們在那里處於一個不錯的位置，並且能夠吸收一些前期的發展。在前期發展中，我會說今年有 14 個。所以這實際上只是日曆年內的一次運動，而前幾年是 10 次。

And then as Keith said, our premiums were a little bit better. We are seeing the AIVs, we are seeing some new business come on. And so that helped to offset any other variance with the prior period development that came in.

然後正如基思所說，我們的保費好一點。我們看到了 AIV，我們看到了一些新業務的出現。因此，這有助於抵消前期發展的任何其他差異。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes from Truist.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist 的 Mark Hughes。

The delay on the trade-in activity, I got some questions on that. What was the logistical cause of the delay?

以舊換新活動的延遲，我對此有一些疑問。延遲的後勤原因是什麼？

Yes, at a high level, relatively simple. So a client -- we expected a client to send additional devices to us towards the end of the third quarter, and that was delayed for a variety of reasons, still to be received in Q4. So it's really just a shift between 3 and 4. And it wasn't so much the lack of volume from a margin perspective. It was the fact that we had staffed labor accordingly to be able to process and receive those devices. So there's a bit of a mismatch between the labor that we had in place in anticipation of the volume and then the volume being delayed for some logistical reasons in terms of clients getting us those devices. So something that we expect to write the ship in the fourth quarter.

是的，在高層次上，相對簡單。所以一個客戶——我們預計客戶會在第三季度末向我們發送更多設備，但由於各種原因而被推遲，但仍需在第四季度收到。所以這實際上只是 3 和 4 之間的轉變。從利潤率的角度來看，這並不是因為數量不足。事實上，我們配備了相應的勞動力，以便能夠處理和接收這些設備。因此，我們在預期數量方面所做的工作與由於客戶獲得這些設備的一些後勤原因而延遲的數量之間存在一些不匹配。所以我們希望在第四季度寫這艘船。

On the reinsurance, I think you had mentioned that you were looking at taking up your retention. Could you refresh me the timing of the new renewals. I think at renewals that renews at a couple of different times through the year. How you anticipate what your early thoughts are about the cost of that program for 2023 versus 2022? And then, I guess, already asked on the timing. So just timing, cost retention, if you could address those.

關於再保險，我想你已經提到你正在考慮接受你的保留。你能告訴我新續約的時間嗎？我認為在一年中的幾個不同時間續訂。您如何預測您對 2023 年與 2022 年該計劃成本的早期想法？然後，我想，已經詢問了時間。所以只是時間安排，成本保留，如果你能解決這些問題的話。

Sure. And maybe, Richard, you can start in terms of the timing, and then I can add some color at the end.

當然。也許，理查德，你可以從時間開始，然後我可以在最後添加一些顏色。

Yes. Great. So when we think about our reinsurance program, full year this year will probably be about $190 million in total cost in it. And how are we looking at the reinsurance program? Really, we need to look at it in terms of total housing prices. Start with the total housing prices and housing prices have gone up. Inflation has been boosting them. Other factors have been boosting them. So if you think about the insurance that we put on the properties, we're putting more insurance on. And then that obviously means -- that obviously results in us needing to purchase more insurance. So really by kind of just a function of the overall book of business growing, we'll be placing more reinsurance and the premium will grow.

是的。偉大的。因此，當我們考慮我們的再保險計劃時，今年全年的總成本可能約為 1.9 億美元。我們如何看待再保險計劃？真的，我們需要從房價總價來看。從房價總量開始，房價上漲了。通貨膨脹一直在提振它們。其他因素一直在推動它們。因此，如果您考慮我們為財產投保的保險，我們會投保更多。然後這顯然意味著 - 這顯然導致我們需要購買更多保險。因此，實際上只是整體業務增長的一個功能，我們將提供更多的再保險，保費也會增長。

If you think about it having a bigger book of business and more premiums means we do have more exposure at the lower levels and a higher probability that those lower levels will be touched. So as we look at it, it's more of a proportional position that we would take and say, "Okay, well, what's the right new level for our retention?" That's why we wanted to signal that, that lower layer will probably go up.

如果你考慮擁有更大的業務和更多的溢價意味著我們確實在較低水平上有更多的風險敞口，並且觸及這些較低水平的可能性更高。因此，當我們審視它時，它更像是一個我們會採取的比例立場，然後說，“好吧，好吧，我們保留的正確新水平是多少？”這就是為什麼我們想發出信號，較低的層可能會上升。

It's just kind of a logical conclusion in terms of what's been happening in the market. I would say, as we said a number of times, we are getting rate increases. We are getting increases in average insured values. So we are getting premium increases, the rise in the reinsurance costs, and we are expecting some increase in reinsurance costs given the state of the reinsurance market. That would be an offset to some of the premium increases that we are getting. So I would say sort of logical in that sense. In terms of timing, we typically purchase about 2/3 of our reinsurance at the beginning of the year and then the rest of it at mid-year. We always look at that, that proportion could change as we get into the market and see the dynamics of it.

就市場上發生的事情而言，這只是一種合乎邏輯的結論。我會說，正如我們多次說過的那樣，我們正在提高利率。我們的平均保險價值正在增加。因此，我們的保費正在增加，再保險成本也在上升，鑑於再保險市場的狀況，我們預計再保險成本會有所增加。這將抵消我們正在獲得的一些保費增長。所以我會說在這個意義上有點合乎邏輯。就時間而言，我們通常在年初購買約 2/3 的再保險，然後在年中購買其餘部分。我們一直在關注這一點，隨著我們進入市場並看到它的動態，這個比例可能會發生變化。

Yes. And maybe just 1 other comment. I think at the highest level, we certainly expect the reinsurance cost increase to be more than offset by additional rate, both from the rate increases but also from inflation guard, the average insured value increases. So even with a harder reinsurance market, we've got really strong relationships across a wide range of reinsurers.

是的。也許只有 1 條其他評論。我認為在最高層面上，我們當然預計再保險成本的增加會被額外的利率所抵消，這既來自利率的上漲，也來自通貨膨脹的警衛，平均保險價值的增加。因此，即使再保險市場更加艱難，我們也與眾多再保險公司建立了牢固的關係。

We partnered with over 40 different reinsurers, a strong performing business long-term. We continue to simplify the portfolio, which I think helps us as we move forward. And then definitely rising costs, but we anticipate that our rate will be more than sufficient to offset that.

我們與 40 多家不同的再保險公司合作，這是一家長期表現強勁的企業。我們繼續簡化產品組合，我認為這有助於我們前進。然後肯定會增加成本，但我們預計我們的利率將足以抵消這一點。

So it sounds like what you're seeing on rate in your judgment at this point will more than offset both the underlying inflation and higher reinsurance costs. Is that right?

因此，聽起來您此時在判斷中看到的利率將不僅僅抵消潛在的通貨膨脹和更高的再保險成本。那正確嗎？

That's correct. Yes. And if I think about housing, even if we just look at the third quarter, revenues are up 3% year-over-year. If you back out the reinstatement premium from the premium line, we'd be up 8% year-over-year. So we had $35 million in reinstatement premium this year and $8 million in Q3 last year. So that's pretty meaningful, up 8%.

這是正確的。是的。如果我考慮住房，即使我們只看第三季度，收入也同比增長 3%。如果您從保費系列中取消恢復保費，我們將同比增長 8%。因此，我們今年的恢復保費為 3500 萬美元，去年第三季度為 800 萬美元。所以這是非常有意義的，增長了 8%。

I would say that's half from rate, very little of that is from this year's AIV. So we put the AIV increase in July. We talked about double-digit rate as a result of AIV. That's had 3 months to have an effect, right? So it's really a 24-month cycle. We renew policies over 12 months and they take 12 months to earn. We're 3 months into that 24-month cycle. So very little of the improvement is from AIV. Most of it is from all of the rate action we've taken at the individual state level and then from the policy growth that we saw in the third quarter.

我會說這是利率的一半，其中很少一部分來自今年的 AIV。所以我們把 AIV 增加放在 7 月份。由於 AIV，我們談到了兩位數的利率。那是有3個月的效果吧？所以這真的是一個24個月的周期。我們在 12 個月內續簽保單，他們需要 12 個月才能賺到錢。我們已經進入 24 個月的周期 3 個月了。所以很少有改進來自 AIV。其中大部分來自我們在各個州層面採取的所有利率行動，然後來自我們在第三季度看到的政策增長。

So that will just continue to build and accelerate as the full effect of AIV rate comes through the program.

因此，隨著 AIV 率的全面影響通過該計劃，這將繼續建立和加速。

Your SG&A in Lifestyle was up 1 point sequentially. That number has been a little bit volatile, but any change in the economics of the agreements that you've got with the auto dealers or your carrier partners? I know you just renewed with T-Mobile. Is there maybe a little more sharing you're having to do with those partners these days?

您在生活方式中的 SG&A 連續上升了 1 個百分點。這個數字有點波動，但是您與汽車經銷商或您的運營商合作夥伴達成的協議的經濟性有何變化？我知道您剛剛續訂了 T-Mobile。這些天您是否需要與這些合作夥伴進行更多分享？

No. So in terms of T-Mobile, you're correct. We did do a multiyear contract extension on top of the multiyear extension that we got a year ago. The deal structure has changed as we pivoted from the in-store repair to leveraging our 500 CPR stores. But in terms of the broad economics, I would say quite simply, we protected the financial integrity of the original deal that we had.

不，所以就 T-Mobile 而言，你是對的。我們確實在一年前獲得的多年延期基礎上進行了多年合同延期。隨著我們從店內維修轉向利用我們的 500 家 CPR 商店，交易結構發生了變化。但就廣義經濟學而言，我想說的很簡單，我們保護了我們所擁有的原始交易的財務完整性。

So we've restructured the way it operates, but no impact to our EBITDA expectations for that business. And then we further extended the agreement to protect that relationship over time, which is really significant in terms of giving us long-term visibility into the U.S. mobile market. So nothing there that would create any economic change to us.

所以我們重組了它的運作方式，但沒有影響我們對該業務的 EBITDA 預期。然後我們進一步延長協議以隨著時間的推移保護這種關係，這對於讓我們長期了解美國移動市場而言非常重要。所以那裡沒有任何東西會給我們帶來任何經濟變化。

In terms of the balance of clients, I'd say, tremendous momentum still commercially with our clients. Lots of focus on driving growth, driving innovation, but no fundamental changes in deal structures and services provided. So if we think about the softness in the third quarter in Lifestyle, other than pointing to the broader economy and some of the impacts that I discussed earlier, nothing related to client deal-related changes. And then Rick, you want to add anything on the sequential expense?

就客戶的平衡而言，我想說的是，我們的客戶在商業上仍然保持著巨大的勢頭。許多重點放在推動增長、推動創新上，但在交易結構和提供的服務方面沒有發生根本性的變化。因此，如果我們考慮第三季度生活方式的疲軟，除了指向更廣泛的經濟和我之前討論的一些影響之外，與客戶交易相關的變化無關。然後瑞克，你想在連續費用上添加什麼嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Keith. Yes, exactly. No changes to client contracts. But I would say the increase in the overall SG&A is reflecting some increases in the business, growth in the business, particularly in the auto business. Obviously, there's distribution costs with regard to that, and we have been growing the business over the last year. So there's some commissions in there.

是的。謝謝，基思。對，就是這樣。客戶合同沒有變化。但我想說，總體 SG&A 的增長反映了業務的一些增長，業務的增長，尤其是汽車業務。顯然，與此相關的分銷成本，我們在過去一年中一直在發展業務。所以那裡有一些佣金。

Also in our prepared remarks, you heard us talk about some additional investments in our Home Solutions and a chunk of that obviously is expensed in the quarter. So those would be the 2 main drivers.

同樣在我們準備好的評論中，您聽到我們談論了對家庭解決方案的一些額外投資，其中很大一部分顯然在本季度支出。所以這些將是兩個主要驅動因素。

Your next question comes from the line of Gary Ransom from Dowling & Partners.

你的下一個問題來自 Dowling & Partners 的 Gary Ransom。

I was wondering if you could add a little color on the exit from international housing. What -- how long will that take? And what size the magnitude of what's being reduced? It's not clear to me whether that includes the Caribbean exposure as well. But could you talk about that a little bit?

我想知道您是否可以在國際住房的出口處添加一點顏色。什麼——這需要多長時間？減少的幅度有多大？我不清楚這是否也包括加勒比風險。但是你能談談嗎？

Sure. And it does include the Caribbean exposure and really anything that we write internationally that is cat-exposed homeowners related business. We've made the decision strategically to exit. I would say we'll be done writing policies. Most of it will be done this year. There's a little bit that we will finish at the end of the first quarter, but we won't be writing new policies as of Q2 '23.

當然。它確實包括加勒比地區的風險以及我們在國際上寫的任何與貓暴露的房主相關的業務。我們已經從戰略上做出了退出的決定。我會說我們將完成編寫政策。大部分將在今年完成。我們將在第一季度末完成一些工作，但從 23 年第二季度開始我們不會編寫新政策。

And then depending on how some of the final discussions unwind, maximum, we'd have a 12-month runoff on those policies; in some cases, shorter. So that's to be finalized and determined. But in terms of the scale of it, I think about maybe $50 million in net earned premium in a year as being kind of typical, probably takes 10% of our tower. So if you think about the tower that Richard talked about, our reinsurance tower, 10% of that goes to protect the international exposures.

然後根據一些最終討論的展開方式，最多，我們將對這些政策進行 12 個月的決選；在某些情況下，更短。所以這是要最終確定的。但就它的規模而言，我認為每年大約有 5000 萬美元的淨賺保費是典型的，可能占我們塔的 10%。所以如果你想想理查德談到的塔，我們的再保險塔，其中 10% 用於保護國際風險。

And strategically, it's been a challenging market. Hard to get rate. There's been rising costs as we know of claims. We expect rising cost of reinsurance, adds a lot of complexity to not only manage the business but negotiate the reinsurance that backs it. And ultimately, with modeled ALLs, fairly limited effect to all-in EBITDA, certainly EBITDA ex cat, but all in EBITDA with cat not hitting our target levels of return risk adjusted. So we're making the decision to further simplify and focus in places where we think we have clear competitive advantages and where we're differentiated.

從戰略上講，這是一個充滿挑戰的市場。很難得到率。據我們所知，理賠成本一直在上升。我們預計再保險成本會上升，這不僅會增加管理業務的複雜性，還會增加支持業務的再保險談判的複雜性。最終，使用模型化的 ALL，對全部 EBITDA 的影響相當有限，當然 EBITDA ex cat，但所有 EBITDA 都沒有達到我們調整後的回報風險目標水平。因此，我們決定進一步簡化並專注於我們認為具有明顯競爭優勢和差異化的地方。

We're not just a risk taker. We're providing deeply integrated, more differentiated services. That wasn't the case with this business, and we weren't able to get the returns we wanted.

我們不只是冒險者。我們正在提供深度集成、差異化程度更高的服務。這項業務並非如此，我們無法獲得我們想要的回報。

Is some of this business coming through the LPI business as well?

這些業務中的一些是否也來自 LPI 業務？

No.

不。

No? Okay. It's all just separate -- separate homeowners business (inaudible).

不？好的。這一切都是獨立的——獨立的房主業務（聽不清）。

Yes, separate homeowners. Some of it were a reinsurer, some of it were a direct writer. But none of it connects to what we do in LPI. And LPI is really unique. It's an incredibly advantaged business in terms of how we operate, how we're integrated and we create much more value than just being a risk taker, and we're able to get rate and we're able to drive the right level of profitability over time in that business. So it's quite a different business to manage versus what we've been working with in the international property side.

是的，獨立的房主。其中一些是再保險公司，一些是直接承保人。但這些都與我們在 LPI 中所做的事情無關。 LPI 確實是獨一無二的。就我們的運營方式、我們的整合方式和我們創造的價值而言，這是一個令人難以置信的優勢業務，而不僅僅是作為一個冒險者，我們能夠獲得利率，我們能夠推動適當的盈利水平隨著時間的推移在那個行業。因此，與我們在國際房地產方面一直合作的業務相比，這是一項完全不同的業務。

Great. And I also wanted to ask about the 2 acquisitions. I know you had the EPG acquisition, maybe it's a couple of years ago now. But do those all fit together? I mean, is that -- is there some consolidation potential? And just I wondered if -- is that a market size that will be additive to the growth you're thinking about over the long run?

偉大的。我還想問一下這 2 次收購。我知道您收購了 EPG，也許是幾年前的事了。但這些都適合嗎？我的意思是，是否有整合潛力？我只是想知道，從長遠來看，這個市場規模是否會增加您正在考慮的增長？

Yes, I think that's exactly right. If we think about the EPG acquisition and then the acquisition that we're talking about now, it's really to build on the strength that we've got in that market around commercial equipment, leased and finance equipment. We've had good results and strong growth. And we operate this business both in our Housing side and the Lifestyle side. So we're going to evaluate how to drive more synergies through the organization as we move forward.

是的，我認為這是完全正確的。如果我們考慮對 EPG 的收購，然後再考慮我們現在談論的收購，這實際上是建立在我們在商業設備、租賃和融資設備市場上的實力之上。我們取得了良好的成績和強勁的增長。我們在住房方面和生活方式方面都經營這項業務。因此，我們將評估如何在我們前進的過程中通過組織推動更多的協同效應。

But absolutely, it's capital-light fee income. We're talking about small tuck-in acquisitions of existing clients that are high performing. We're already underwriting the business and it's really just buying the administrative capability and the scale to drive that forward. So we definitely see growth in this line of business, and we think it can accelerate as we make somewhat are really quite small acquisitions, but can add a lot of value to our franchise.

但絕對是輕資本手續費收入。我們談論的是對現有高性能客戶的小規模收購。我們已經在承保業務，它實際上只是在購買管理能力和推動業務發展的規模。所以我們肯定看到了這一業務線的增長，我們認為它可以加速，因為我們進行了一些非常小的收購，但可以為我們的特許經營增加很多價值。

Yes. You said that some of it is in housing and some of it is in Lifestyle. I guess I sort of thought of it as sort of similar to the auto business, but maybe I was wrong on that.

是的。你說一部分在住房，一部分在Lifestyle。我想我有點認為它類似於汽車業務，但也許我錯了。

Very much. I think we write 2 different product lines when we think about heavy equipment and commercial equipment. Some of it is service contracts, some of it is physical damage. Operates very consistently, really predictable strong profitability. And that's been the legacy of how we've been set up as an organization.

非常。當我們考慮重型設備和商業設備時，我認為我們寫了 2 個不同的產品線。有些是服務合同，有些是物理損壞。運營非常一致，真正可預測的強勁盈利能力。這就是我們作為一個組織的建立方式的遺產。

So one of the things that we're focused on now is, as I talked about some of the housing realignment between risk-based homeowners business and fee income capital-light is just thinking about how do we create maximum efficiency and effectiveness organizationally, how do we create clarity in terms of where we want to focus to drive growth, what is the mindset that we need leading various different products and then make sure that we've got the least amount of friction in how we're organized as possible. So more changes to come as we think about our go-to-market strategy longer-term.

因此，我們現在關注的一件事是，正如我談到的一些基於風險的房主業務和費用收入資本輕之間的住房調整，只是在思考我們如何在組織上創造最大的效率和效力，如何我們是否明確了我們希望推動增長的重點領域，我們需要領導各種不同產品的心態是什麼，然後確保我們在組織方式上的摩擦盡可能少。因此，隨著我們從長遠考慮我們的上市戰略，將會有更多的變化。

And actually, just 1 more maybe a bigger picture question. When you're thinking about all these macro impacts and inflation, foreign exchange and then putting that in the context of how you were thinking about '23 and '24 before. I'm not even really asking whether what you think about hitting the '24 or not, but just what -- just how your thinking might have changed?

實際上，再多 1 個可能是一個更大的問題。當您考慮所有這些宏觀影響和通貨膨脹、外匯時，然後將其置於您之前對 23 世紀和 24 年的思考方式中。我什至不是真的在問你是否對打 24 歲有什麼看法，而是什麼——你的想法可能會發生怎樣的變化？

And what -- we've had these couple of disappointments in the second and third quarter. What did that do for your thinking about the outlook as we go into '24 and maybe even longer?

還有什麼——我們在第二和第三季度遇到了一些令人失望的事情。當我們進入 24 世紀甚至更長時間時，這對您對前景的思考有何影響？

Yes, I think it probably -- we step back and reflect on just how uncertain and complicated the environment is. That's true for Assurant and it's true for most companies today, right? So there's a lot of market volatility, market uncertainty. Interest rates are moving quickly. The economy obviously is going to shift over the course of the coming quarters, and we'll see how that lands.

是的，我認為可能——我們退後一步，反思環境的不確定性和復雜性。這對 Assurant 來說是正確的，對當今的大多數公司來說也是如此，對吧？所以市場波動很大，市場存在不確定性。利率變化很快。經濟顯然將在未來幾個季度發生變化，我們將拭目以待。

So there's just a recognition of the complexity. And then like I talked about earlier, we knew housing was going to be weaker this year. We thought the outperformance in Lifestyle would make up that gap as we thought about 2024. We certainly expect to continue to see the housing growth. It's no doubt going to grow as we think forward over the next couple of years. But the question mark is around can Lifestyle outperform at the level that we would have needed to in order to offset that housing softness?

所以只有對複雜性的認識。然後就像我之前談到的那樣，我們知道今年房地產市場會走弱。我們認為 Lifestyle 的出色表現將彌補我們對 2024 年的看法。我們當然預計會繼續看到房地產增長。毫無疑問，隨著我們在未來幾年的思考，它將會增長。但問題在於，Lifestyle 能否在我們需要的水平上表現出色，以抵消住房市場的疲軟？

And housing is probably more of a delay than a pivot in terms of what our expectations are. It's really just that we're a year behind where we thought we would be. But we are seeing evidence of significant improvement. And I think right now, given the uncertainty is particularly in the international markets, just taking a step back, like I said, finish the fourth quarter, deliver on a really strong plan in terms of what we expect to accomplish in '23 relative to expenses as well as driving the right outcomes with our clients. And then stepping back and revisiting what's possible as we think about the longer-term and then providing some color on a more informed basis in February.

就我們的期望而言，住房可能更多的是延遲而不是支點。這真的只是我們比我們想像的落後了一年。但我們看到了顯著改善的證據。我認為現在，考慮到國際市場的不確定性，就像我說的那樣，退後一步，完成第四季度，就我們預計在 23 年相對於費用以及與我們的客戶一起推動正確的結果。然後退後一步，重新審視我們考慮長期的可能性，然後在 2 月提供更明智的基礎上的一些顏色。

Your next question comes from the line of John Barnidge from Piper Sandler.

你的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 John Barnidge。

You've had expanded partnerships in the Lifestyle business announced this year. I had a couple of questions on that. In light of inflationary pressures, one, can you talk about how you manage that inflationary volatility? And then can you contrast that with -- could that pressure actually lead to more partners looking to outsource more of their service management and refurbishment of mobile devices?

你們在今年宣布的 Lifestyle 業務中擴大了合作夥伴關係。我有幾個問題。鑑於通脹壓力，第一，你能談談你如何管理通脹波動嗎？然後你能否將其與 - 這種壓力是否真的會導致更多合作夥伴尋求外包更多的服務管理和移動設備翻新？

Yes, it's interesting. If I start with the second point first, just on outsourcing and this ebbs and flows over time. But I think as we think about a more challenging economy going forward, if we think about a recessionary environment, oftentimes, we'll see clients focusing on core. And the same for us, right? How do we focus on the things where we can generate the greatest amount of return? How do we prioritize what's critically important to the company?

是的，這很有趣。如果我先從第二點開始，那就是外包，隨著時間的推移，這種情況會起伏不定。但我認為，當我們考慮未來更具挑戰性的經濟時，如果我們考慮經濟衰退的環境，我們通常會看到客戶專注於核心業務。我們也一樣，對吧？我們如何專注於可以產生最大回報的事情？我們如何確定對公司至關重要的事情的優先順序？

I think clients do the same thing. So as clients reprioritize their focus, there may be opportunities for them to say, "Hey, is there someone else in the market that's better equipped to help me with something" because it's just not the burning priority at the moment. So we'll see how that evolves. That sort of happens over time, but it's certainly reasonable to expect as we continue to build scale and as we have better and better capabilities that are efficiently operated, we can provide a great source of value to our partners over time.

我認為客戶做同樣的事情。因此，當客戶重新確定他們的關注重點時，他們可能有機會說，“嘿，市場上還有其他人可以更好地幫助我做某事嗎？”因為這不是目前最重要的事情。所以我們將看看它是如何演變的。隨著時間的推移，這種情況會發生，但隨著我們繼續擴大規模，隨著我們擁有越來越好的有效運營能力，我們可以隨著時間的推移為我們的合作夥伴提供巨大的價值來源，這當然是合理的。

So I think that -- hopefully, that trend continues. In terms of the volatility in Lifestyle, from a macro environment, I think if you step back and look at the totality of the year, we've signaled some puts and takes around kind of the inflationary environment. In Lifestyle, we see its strong investment income, certainly flowing through the auto business, which is the biggest source of our portfolio. So that's a positive. We've seen mobile losses, as I talked about earlier, performing quite well, not because of inflation but because frequency of claims is reduced a little bit. And then how we're doing with controlling severity through walk and repair, et cetera.

所以我認為 - 希望這種趨勢繼續下去。就生活方式的波動性而言，從宏觀環境來看，我認為如果你退後一步看看今年的整體情況，我們已經發出了一些看跌期權和採取某種通脹環境的信號。在Lifestyle，我們看到其強勁的投資收入，肯定流向汽車業務，這是我們投資組合的最大來源。所以這是積極的。正如我之前所說，我們已經看到移動損失表現相當不錯，這不是因為通貨膨脹，而是因為索賠頻率有所降低。然後我們如何通過行走和修復等來控制嚴重程度。

And then we've had favorability in GAAP losses on the auto side, which we've talked about. And then 2/3 of the time, we're not on the risk, and we're sharing that risk back with our partners. So that leaves us with 1/3 of the deals where we're more, let's call it, more exposed to those pressures. And we are seeing losses on the risk side escalating. It's not a huge part of the portfolio. It's not a big part of our narrative this quarter, but certainly on the [ESC] side, cost of parts and labor a little bit on the auto side as well.

然後我們在汽車方面的 GAAP 損失中獲得了青睞，我們已經談到了這一點。然後有 2/3 的時間，我們沒有承擔風險，我們正在與我們的合作夥伴分擔風險。所以這讓我們有 1/3 的交易，我們可以稱之為更多，更容易受到這些壓力的影響。我們看到風險方面的損失正在升級。它不是投資組合的很大一部分。這不是我們本季度敘述的重要部分，但肯定是在 [ESC] 方面，汽車方面的零件和人工成本也有一點。

And then there's labor inflation. And we try to offset labor inflation with digital initiatives and investments in optimizing our operational transformation efforts. So those would be the big highlights on balance, not a huge driver for the year, but certainly, FX and softness internationally, which is -- we're feeling more of that is a pressure we expect as we go forward.

然後是勞動力通脹。我們試圖通過數字化舉措和投資來優化我們的運營轉型工作來抵消勞動力通脹。因此，這些將是平衡的重大亮點，而不是今年的巨大推動力，但可以肯定的是，國際上的外彙和疲軟，這是 - 我們感到更多的是我們在前進時預期的壓力。

And I do think continued elevation of claims. And then our job will be to make sure that we've got the right pricing in place with clients that we're restructuring deals, and we're trying to drive more stability over time.

我確實認為索賠的持續提升。然後我們的工作將是確保我們與正在重組交易的客戶制定了正確的定價，並且我們正努力隨著時間的推移提高穩定性。

That's helpful. And then following up on that, I wanted to go back to the pre-announcement, you talked about simplifying the business portfolio. You talked about exiting commercial liability and international housing catastrophe. Have you completed that simplification of the business portfolio? Or could there be additional niche lines you look to exit in the near to intermediate term?

這很有幫助。然後跟進，我想回到預先公告，你談到了簡化業務組合。你談到了退出商業責任和國際住房災難。您是否完成了業務組合的簡化？或者您是否希望在中短期內退出其他利基產品線？

Yes, great question. I would say we've -- I think we've had a very successful track record of managing the portfolio and you've seen us do that consistently over many years. There are certainly more things that we'll evaluate in terms of smaller product lines and making sure that we're investing in places where we have clear competitive advantages.

是的，很好的問題。我會說我們 - 我認為我們在管理投資組合方面有著非常成功的記錄，而且你已經看到我們多年來一直這樣做。我們肯定會根據較小的產品線評估更多的東西，並確保我們在我們具有明顯競爭優勢的地方進行投資。

I think about -- we need a strong right to win and the size of the price needs to be meaningful. And there are probably other pockets where we could continue to refine the portfolio over time. And I think that will continue permanently, right? That's always going to be a part of our DNA is to look to optimize and create more focus on things that can more significantly move the needle and try to limit the distraction for the company, focusing energy on products that are smaller don't contribute significantly to the profitability of the company.

我想——我們需要強大的獲勝權，價格的大小也需要有意義。隨著時間的推移，我們可能還會在其他方面繼續完善投資組合。我認為這將永遠持續下去，對嗎？這將永遠成為我們 DNA 的一部分，即尋求優化並更多地關注那些可以更顯著地改變現狀的事情，並試圖限制對公司的干擾，將精力集中在規模較小的產品上，貢獻不大到公司的盈利能力。

If that effort can be better placed elsewhere to drive more meaningful growth, those are the choices and trade-offs that our management team is making on a regular basis.

如果這種努力可以更好地放在其他地方以推動更有意義的增長，那麼這些就是我們的管理團隊定期做出的選擇和權衡。

My last question. You talked about $12 million in buybacks in October. Does that seem like a reasonable run rate for the fourth quarter given the M&A transactions?

我的最後一個問題。你在 10 月份談到了 1200 萬美元的回購。考慮到併購交易，這似乎是第四季度的合理運行率嗎？

Yes, maybe I'll offer a couple of thoughts, and then certainly, Richard can jump in. I think -- when we step back and think about capital management at the highest level, we've talked about our focus on continuing to be very disciplined in terms of how we think about our capital. We've indicated interest in being balanced between share buybacks and M&A.

是的，也許我會提出一些想法，然後當然，理查德可以加入。我認為 - 當我們退後一步並考慮最高級別的資本管理時，我們已經談到了我們的重點是繼續成為在我們如何看待我們的資本方面非常有紀律。我們表示有興趣在股票回購和併購之間取得平衡。

If you think about where we sit year-to-date, we've done $567 million in share repurchases and then $80 million we've signaled in M&A. So repurchases has been a big part of the story this year, nearly 90% of the capital that we've deployed in that respect. So I think we feel good about meeting our commitment on the Preneed return. We feel good about meeting our commitment to, in a normal year do $200 million to $300 million of share repurchases. But we also recognize the market is really challenging.

如果你想一想我們今年迄今的處境，我們已經完成了 5.67 億美元的股票回購，然後我們在併購方面發出了 8000 萬美元的信號。因此，回購是今年故事的重要組成部分，占我們在這方面部署的資本的近 90%。所以我認為我們對履行我們對 Preneed 回報的承諾感覺很好。我們很高興兌現我們的承諾，在正常的一年裡進行 2 億至 3 億美元的股票回購。但我們也認識到市場確實充滿挑戰。

There's a lot of interest rate volatility, and we want to be more prudent in terms of capital management. And it's really just about maintaining flexibility, protecting our financial strength and then looking for the market to stabilize and for visibility to improve. And then as we look towards the future, we see our stock prices extremely attractive, right?

利率波動很大，我們希望在資本管理方面更加謹慎。這實際上只是為了保持靈活性，保護我們的財務實力，然後尋求市場穩定和知名度提高。然後當我們展望未來時，我們看到我們的股票價格極具吸引力，對吧？

So as we think about future M&A, we'll have to have a very high hurdle rate in terms of the M&A relative to what a share buyback looks like today. But Richard, is there anything else you would add?

因此，當我們考慮未來的併購時，相對於今天的股票回購，我們必須在併購方面有一個非常高的門檻率。但是理查德，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. I guess just to add on to what you said. I mean we -- in terms of share repurchases this year, we're already through October at -- a little over $550 million. In addition to that, $113 million in dividends. So that brings us to about, say, $670 million. So we had targets at the beginning of the year. We wanted to make sure we hit them for the year. And I would say we have hit them, which is why we signaled we would be at the lower end of that $200 million to $300 million we had talked about earlier in terms of repurchases outside of the Preneed proceeds that we repurchased.

是的。我想只是補充一下你所說的。我的意思是我們 - 就今年的股票回購而言，我們已經到 10 月份 - 略高於 5.5 億美元。除此之外，還有 1.13 億美元的股息。所以這給我們帶來了大約 6.7 億美元。所以我們在年初就有了目標。我們想確保我們在這一年中擊中他們。而且我會說我們已經擊中了他們，這就是為什麼我們表示我們將在我們回購的 Preneed 收益之外的回購方面處於我們之前談到的 2 億至 3 億美元的低端。

And as Keith said, it's uncertain market conditions, and we want to make sure we continue to invest in ourselves and we continue to do the right things and remain disciplined with capital. So no change in our philosophy -- our capital philosophy, the discipline we have, keeping the balance sheet very strong.

正如基思所說，這是不確定的市場條件，我們希望確保我們繼續投資於自己，我們繼續做正確的事情，並保持對資本的紀律。所以我們的理念沒有改變——我們的資本理念，我們的紀律，保持資產負債表非常強大。

As Keith said, and we've always said, we always look at deployment of capital between share repurchases and M&A. And in these markets, with the share price where it is, the share price, obviously, from our perspective, is extremely attractive today. So that creates a higher bar for M&A.

正如基思所說，我們一直在說，我們總是關注股票回購和併購之間的資本配置。在這些市場中，從目前的股價來看，從我們的角度來看，股價顯然在今天極具吸引力。因此，這為併購創造了更高的門檻。

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Schmitt from William Blair.

你的下一個問題來自威廉布萊爾的傑夫施密特。

In Global Lifestyle, I understand the inflation impact being low on the claims side just because you don't retain a ton of the risk. But what about for SG&A? How much of that is employee comp and what level of wage inflation are you seeing there kind of relative to last year?

在 Global Lifestyle，我理解通貨膨脹對索賠方面的影響很低，只是因為您沒有保留大量風險。但是 SG&A 呢？其中有多少是員工薪酬，你看到的工資通脹水平與去年相比如何？

I think we're generally doing a pretty good job offsetting wage inflation with automation and our digital efforts. So certainly, paying our employees more is important in the war on talent, make sure that we're staying competitive, but I think we're doing a really good job offsetting that with our efforts on driving automation through our operations.

我認為我們通常在通過自動化和數字化努力抵消工資上漲方面做得很好。因此，當然，在人才爭奪戰中，為員工支付更多薪水很重要，確保我們保持競爭力，但我認為我們在通過運營推動自動化方面所做的努力很好地抵消了這一點。

Okay. And then in Global Housing, I'm just trying to understand the numbers. When I adjust for or add back that restatement premium, brings that attritional loss ratio down to, I think, 38%. And then if there was -- if you back out the unfavorable development, it brings it down quite a bit more, 33%, 34%.

好的。然後在全球住房中，我只是想了解這些數字。當我調整或加回該重報溢價時，我認為該損耗率降至 38%。然後如果有——如果你取消不利的發展，它會把它降得更多，33%，34%。

So I'm trying to understand, you're talking about the pressures that you're seeing there. I think you're pushing for double-digit rate increases. I guess, where is that pressure being felt? Or I guess, why is that the sort of loss pick is as low as it is?

所以我試圖理解，你說的是你在那裡看到的壓力。我認為您正在推動兩位數的加息。我想，在哪裡感受到壓力？或者我猜，為什麼那種損失選擇如此之低？

Yes. Maybe, Richard, just to talk, I think we don't see it at that level. But maybe, Richard, just talk about our view on kind of the normalized loss ratio in the quarter.

是的。也許，理查德，只是說說，我認為我們沒有在那個層面上看到它。但也許，理查德，只是談談我們對本季度標準化損失率的看法。

Yes. And I would start, it's a great question, Jeff. I think -- I'd first start by -- when we go in for rate increases, we are looking at it kind of bottom line. So you have to take in -- you're looking at the non-cat loss ratio. I think you have to look at all in. If you look at our combined ratio for the quarter with Hurricane Ian, it's over 100%, obviously. So that will be taken into account when we go and go for rate increases.

是的。我會開始，這是一個很好的問題，傑夫。我認為 - 我首先要開始 - 當我們開始加息時，我們正在研究它的底線。所以你必須考慮——你在看非巨災損失率。我認為你必須全面考慮。如果你看看我們本季度與颶風伊恩的綜合比率，顯然超過 100%。所以當我們去加息時會考慮到這一點。

And essentially, what we end up doing with our non-cat loss ratio, there are a couple of different moving parts. If you think about it from a net earned premium part, we have caps that the reinstatement premium, we have to add that back, but also from the incurred claims, we have to take out the prior year development. When we add back the caps and we get to kind of like from a 68% that you see in the supplement to about 45%, and then we take out the $24 million of prior period development, we get to about 40%.

從本質上講，我們最終對非巨災損失率所做的事情，有幾個不同的活動部分。如果您從淨賺取的保費部分考慮，我們有恢復保費的上限，我們必須將其加回去，而且從已發生的索賠中，我們必須扣除前一年的發展。當我們加回上限時，我們會從補充文件中看到的 68% 增加到大約 45%，然後我們去掉前期開發的 2400 萬美元，我們會達到大約 40%。

You're a little bit lighter. So there's maybe a numerator/denominator thing, But I think the point -- your point is a good one. You'd say 40%, that looks low. But it's really the all-in cost, including cat, including the expenses, the tracking, et cetera, that are taken into account when we go for rates.

你輕了一點。所以可能有分子/分母的問題，但我認為你的觀點很好。你會說 40%，這看起來很低。但這實際上是所有成本，包括貓，包括費用、跟踪等，我們在計算費率時都會考慮在內。

So it's a bigger number on an all-in basis.

所以在全押的基礎上，這是一個更大的數字。

And your final question comes from the line of Grace Carter from Bank of America.

你的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Grace Carter。

So I was wondering in the Lifestyle book, just given how much of that risk that you don't retain, it seems like inflationary pressures have been a bit more persistent than maybe a lot of people originally hoped. I know that you had mentioned in the past that you hadn't really been seeing too much pushback from your clients regarding your profit sharing and reinsurance arrangements.

所以我在生活方式書中想知道，考慮到你沒有保留的風險有多少，通脹壓力似乎比許多人最初希望的要持久一些。我知道你過去曾提到過，你並沒有真正看到客戶對你的利潤分享和再保險安排有太多的反對。

I was just wondering if given the persistency of inflationary pressures and that, that actually started to show a little bit in the results in the quarter, if those conversations had evolved any in the past few months?

我只是想知道，考慮到通貨膨脹壓力的持續存在，並且實際上開始在本季度的結果中顯示出一點點，這些對話在過去幾個月中是否有任何進展？

No, I would say the clients that are currently in profit share and reinsurance structures, that's the preferred approach for those clients. Those programs are quite -- typically quite large, very sophisticated. The clients understand the program economics and there's a tremendous amount of transparency in those deals, and there's sufficient profitability in those structures that can absorb the inflationary pressure.

不，我會說目前處於利潤分享和再保險結構中的客戶，這是這些客戶的首選方法。這些程序非常——通常非常大，非常複雜。客戶了解項目經濟學，這些交易具有極大的透明度，並且這些結構具有足夠的盈利能力，可以吸收通貨膨脹壓力。

So from a client perspective, no interest in moving away from those structures. And then clients where we're more on the risk, over time, we'll certainly see discussions evolve and emerge as clients become more sophisticated and interested in taking on more of the risk. That may evolve over time. But generally speaking, it's been pretty steady. And I wouldn't say it's a huge source of discussion with our teams.

因此，從客戶的角度來看，沒有興趣擺脫這些結構。然後是我們承擔更多風險的客戶，隨著時間的推移，隨著客戶變得更加老練並且有興趣承擔更多風險，我們肯定會看到討論的發展和出現。這可能會隨著時間的推移而演變。但總的來說，它一直很穩定。我不會說這是與我們團隊討論的重要來源。

Perfect. And I guess just kind of thinking of how the Lifestyle book has evolved over time, moving from sort of more of the protection in towards more fee-based services. I mean is the recent emphasis on growing fee-based services like trade-ins, upgrades, whatnot change the level of macro sensitivity today versus maybe what we've seen in downturns in the past? Or do you consider it to be pretty even?

完美的。我想這只是在思考生活方式書籍是如何隨著時間的推移而演變的，從更多的保護轉向更多的收費服務。我的意思是，最近對以舊換新、升級等收費服務的增長的重視是否會改變今天的宏觀敏感性水平，而不是我們過去在經濟低迷時期所看到的水平？還是你認為它很均勻？

I think it's pretty stable. I would say when you think about fee-based services, even what we do for clients that are reinsured, that doesn't show up in fee income. So if you think about administrative fees and underwriting fees, where we're not sitting on the risk, it still flows through outside of the fee income line, but it behaves a lot more like fee income, right? We get stated fees for providing insurance and related services.

我認為它非常穩定。我會說當你考慮收費服務時，即使我們為再保險的客戶所做的，也不會出現在收費收入中。因此，如果你考慮管理費用和承銷費用，我們沒有承擔風險，它仍然流經費用收入線之外，但它的表現更像是費用收入，對吧？我們收取提供保險和相關服務的規定費用。

So that's still a significant driver of our overall economics, and that doesn't show up in the fee income line. And then I think the thing we're excited about is the balance that we have today. We do a lot more work with partners across the value chain. So trade-in related services are important to our clients -- increasingly important. And it gives us another way to add value for our customers. It's more defensible competitively, and then we can create other unique ways to drive value longer-term because we're playing in a broader set of services across the ecosystem.

所以這仍然是我們整體經濟的重要驅動力，並且不會出現在費用收入線上。然後我認為我們感到興奮的是我們今天所擁有的平衡。我們與價值鏈上的合作夥伴開展了更多工作。因此，以舊換新相關服務對我們的客戶很重要——而且越來越重要。它為我們提供了另一種為客戶增加價值的方式。它更具競爭力，然後我們可以創造其他獨特的方式來長期推動價值，因為我們正在整個生態系統中參與更廣泛的服務。

So from that perspective, I think it's really favorable and it does create more balance. But the bulk of the economics on the parts where we don't take the risk are also quite predictable, and that's evolved over time as well.

所以從這個角度來看，我認為這真的很有利，它確實創造了更多的平衡。但是，我們不承擔風險的部分的大部分經濟學也是可以預測的，並且隨著時間的推移也在演變。

Wonderful. Well, thanks, everybody. Just a couple of closing comments from me. We believe we've performed well in what is a really challenging macroeconomic environment and remain differentiated in terms of our business model with compelling long-term earnings growth potential and cash flow generation capability. We look forward to closing the year strong and we'll talk to everybody on our fourth quarter call in February.

精彩的。嗯，謝謝大家。只是我的幾條結束評論。我們相信我們在真正具有挑戰性的宏觀經濟環境中表現良好，並且在我們的商業模式方面保持差異化，具有令人信服的長期盈利增長潛力和現金流產生能力。我們期待以強勁的勢頭結束這一年，我們將在 2 月份的第四季度電話會議上與所有人交談。

In the meantime, as usual, please reach out to Suzanne or Sean with any follow-up questions. And thanks, everybody. Have a great day.

與此同時，如有任何後續問題，請像往常一樣聯繫 Suzanne 或 Sean。謝謝大家。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時請斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。