Assurant Inc (AIZ) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Assurant's Second Quarter 2022 Conference Call and Webcast. (Operator Instructions) It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Suzanne Shepherd, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Sustainability. You may begin.

歡迎來到 Assurant 2022 年第二季度電話會議和網絡直播。 （操作員說明）現在我很高興將發言權交給投資者關係和可持續發展高級副總裁 Suzanne Shepherd。你可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our second quarter 2022 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant's conference call are Keith Demmings, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Richard Dziadzio, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家早上好。我們期待今天與您討論我們 2022 年第二季度的業績。和我一起參加 Assurant 電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼首席執行官 Keith Demmings；和我們的首席財務官 Richard Dziadzio。

Yesterday after the market closed, we issued a news release announcing our results for the second quarter of 2022. The release and corresponding financial supplement are available on assurant.com. We will start today's call with remarks from Keith and Richard before moving into a Q&A session.

昨天收市後，我們發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了我們 2022 年第二季度的業績。該新聞稿和相應的財務補充可在 assurant.com 上查閱。在進入問答環節之前，我們將以 Keith 和 Richard 的講話開始今天的電話會議。

Some of the statements made today are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements are based upon our historical performance and current expectations and subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements. Additional information regarding these factors can be found in yesterday's earnings release as well as in our SEC reports.

今天發表的一些聲明是前瞻性的。前瞻性陳述基於我們的歷史業績和當前預期，並受風險、不確定性和其他可能導致實際結果與這些陳述所設想的結果大不相同的因素的影響。有關這些因素的更多信息可以在昨天的收益發布以及我們的 SEC 報告中找到。

During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance. For more details on these measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the two, please refer to yesterday's news release and financial supplement that can be found on our website.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非公認會計原則財務指標，我們認為這對評估公司的業績很重要。有關這些措施的更多詳細信息、最具可比性的 GAAP 措施以及兩者的調節，請參閱昨天的新聞稿和可在我們網站上找到的財務補充。

We have revised all quarterly and annual results for full year 2020 through first quarter 2022 periods to reflect the change in the adjusted EBITDA calculation to exclude certain businesses that we now expect to exit fully, including our sharing economy and small commercial businesses and Global Housing as well as certain legacy long-duration insurance policies within Global Lifestyle. Results have been revised for the correction of any errors related to reinsurance of claims and benefits payable within the Global Lifestyle segment that occurred in late 2018 through first quarter 2022 as well as other immaterial corrections. The impact of these changes individually or in the aggregate, is not material to results for any prior period. A full reconciliation of certain reported and revised key measures of performance and metrics is provided in our second quarter financial supplement posted on assurant.com.

我們已經修訂了 2020 年全年至 2022 年第一季度期間的所有季度和年度業績，以反映調整後 EBITDA 計算的變化，以排除我們現在預計將完全退出的某些業務，包括我們的共享經濟和小型商業企業以及全球住房作為以及 Global Lifestyle 中某些遺留的長期保險單。已對結果進行了修訂，以更正 2018 年底至 2022 年第一季度發生的與 Global Lifestyle 部門內應付的索賠和福利再保險相關的任何錯誤以及其他非實質性更正。這些變化的單獨或總體影響對任何前期的結果都不重要。我們在 assurant.com 上發布的第二季度財務補充中提供了某些報告和修訂的關鍵績效指標的完整核對。

I will now turn the call over to Keith.

我現在將把電話轉給 Keith。

Thanks, Suzanne, and good morning, everyone. As we outlined during our recent Investor Day in March, we aspire to be the leading global business services company supporting the advancement of the connected world. And so far in 2022, we've made solid progress delivering on that vision for the benefit of our clients and their customers, our employees and importantly, our shareholders.

謝謝，蘇珊娜，大家早上好。正如我們在最近 3 月的投資者日中所概述的那樣，我們渴望成為支持互聯世界進步的全球領先商業服務公司。到 2022 年為止，為了我們的客戶及其客戶、我們的員工以及重要的是我們的股東的利益，我們在實現這一願景方面取得了堅實的進展。

We delivered adjusted EPS of $7.22, up 13% in the first half of last year, and adjusted EBITDA was $592 million, both excluding reportable catastrophe losses. We're very pleased that Global Lifestyle had such a strong first half of the year with momentum expected to continue, led by both mobile and auto. Our capital-light and fee income based businesses represented 82% of our adjusted EBITDA ex-cat so far this year and continue to add to the value of our franchise.

我們的調整後每股收益為 7.22 美元，比去年上半年增長 13%，調整後的 EBITDA 為 5.92 億美元，均不包括可報告的巨災損失。我們很高興環球生活方式在今年上半年表現如此強勁，預計在移動和汽車行業的帶動下，勢頭將持續。今年到目前為止，我們以輕資本和費用收入為基礎的業務占我們調整後的 EBITDA ex-cat 的 82%，並繼續增加我們的特許經營價值。

While results in Global Housing were below expectations, largely driven by broader inflationary pressures seen across our industry, we have a clear path and several key actions underway to address near-term macro challenges. Longer term, we continue to believe that our combined housing and lifestyle portfolio of businesses is positioned to deliver attractive earnings growth and strong cash flow generation relative to the broader market, while also providing a compelling countercyclical hedge in what remains a volatile economic landscape.

雖然全球住房的業績低於預期，主要是受到整個行業更廣泛的通脹壓力的推動，但我們有一條明確的道路，並正在採取一些關鍵行動來應對近期的宏觀挑戰。從長遠來看，我們仍然相信，我們的住房和生活方式組合業務組合能夠實現相對於大盤具有吸引力的盈利增長和強勁的現金流，同時在仍然動蕩的經濟環境中提供引人注目的逆週期對沖。

As we look at our Global Lifestyle segment, our business services-oriented offerings generated adjusted EBITDA growth of 12% year-over-year and 14% year-to-date. Our market-leading franchise helped us expand our partnership with several world-class brands in the lifestyle market. In the U.S., we recently signed a multiyear renewal with a large cable operator within our mobile business. This includes comprehensive device protection, trade-in and premium technical support. With the renewal, we'll be including new capabilities, demonstrating our ability to grow relationships with value-added services that ultimately lead to a better customer experience.

當我們審視我們的全球生活方式部門時，我們以商業服務為導向的產品產生了調整後的 EBITDA 同比增長 12% 和年初至今的 14%。我們市場領先的特許經營權幫助我們擴大了與生活方式市場上多個世界級品牌的合作夥伴關係。在美國，我們最近與移動業務中的一家大型有線電視運營商簽訂了多年續約協議。這包括全面的設備保護、以舊換新和高級技術支持。隨著續訂，我們將包括新功能，展示我們與增值服務發展關係的能力，最終帶來更好的客戶體驗。

We've now renewed two major U.S. cable operators in our mobile business within the last year, while also broadening our product offerings to support their growing mobile subscriber bases. We're pleased with the continued growth momentum in Global Lifestyle, which we expect will continue into the second half of 2022. As a result, we believe the segment will deliver mid- to high teens growth in adjusted EBITDA, mainly from strong mobile results, including device protection and trade-in as well as from the continued strength of our auto business.

去年，我們在移動業務中更新了兩家主要的美國有線電視運營商，同時還擴大了我們的產品範圍，以支持他們不斷增長的移動用戶群。我們對 Global Lifestyle 的持續增長勢頭感到高興，我們預計這種勢頭將持續到 2022 年下半年。因此，我們認為該細分市場將在調整後的 EBITDA 中實現中高青少年增長，主要來自強勁的移動業績，包括設備保護和以舊換新以及我們汽車業務的持續實力。

Turning to Global Housing. Similar to others in the industry, we were impacted by significant inflationary pressure, which resulted in higher claim severities and reinsurance costs in the quarter, most notably in lender-placed. These higher costs are expected to be mitigated through rate adjustments over time. In addition to regular rate filings in key states, our lender-placed product includes an inflation guard feature designed to address changes in material and labor costs. We recently implemented a double-digit rate increase on policy renewals. This rate increase will be applied to all renewals over the next 12 months. As a result, there is a timing lag that is magnifying the higher non-cat loss experience in the quarter and ultimately pressuring results through 2022. We believe this will normalize as incremental premiums earn over time. As we look at the housing portfolio, we're also taking other actions to improve profitability through ongoing expense efficiencies and driving even greater focus on the housing businesses where we see a path to market-leading positions that can deliver attractive financial returns.

轉向全球住房。與業內其他公司類似，我們受到了巨大的通脹壓力的影響，這導致本季度的索賠嚴重程度和再保險成本更高，尤其是在貸方放置的情況下。隨著時間的推移，這些較高的成本預計將通過費率調整得到緩解。除了關鍵州的定期利率申報外，我們的貸方放置產品還包括一個通脹防護功能，旨在解決材料和勞動力成本的變化。我們最近對保單更新實施了兩位數的加息。此費率上調將適用於未來 12 個月內的所有續訂。因此，時間滯後正在放大本季度較高的非巨災損失經歷，並最終對 2022 年的業績造成壓力。我們相信，隨著時間的推移，隨著保費的增加，這將正常化。在審視住房投資組合時，我們還採取了其他行動，通過持續的費用效率提高盈利能力，並更加關注住房業務，我們認為這是通往市場領先地位的道路，可以帶來可觀的財務回報。

Most recently, we decided to exit the sharing economy business. The strategic and financial objectives for this business did not develop as we originally anticipated, and we want to focus on opportunities that more closely align to our long-term vision and where we have market advantages with a clear right to win. Stepping back and looking at Assurant overall, we believe we have an attractive portfolio of market-leading businesses, which are poised for long-term success. Given the current macro environment, we believe we can deliver adjusted EBITDA growth of 3% to 6%. This takes into account higher expected losses in housing, but also stronger results and momentum within Global Lifestyle.

最近，我們決定退出共享經濟業務。該業務的戰略和財務目標並沒有像我們最初預期的那樣發展，我們希望專注於更符合我們長期願景的機會，以及我們擁有市場優勢和明確獲勝權的機會。回過頭來看看 Assurant 的整體情況，我們相信我們擁有有吸引力的市場領先業務組合，這些業務有望取得長期成功。鑑於當前的宏觀環境，我們相信我們可以實現 3% 至 6% 的調整後 EBITDA 增長。這考慮到了更高的住房預期損失，以及 Global Lifestyle 更強勁的業績和勢頭。

Adjusted earnings per share, excluding reportable cats, is now expected to grow 14% to 18% for the full year, reflecting this view of adjusted EBITDA. EPS growth will, of course, also be supported by share repurchases, including the return of $900 million in pre-need sale proceeds, which was completed in the second quarter. As we've shown historically through various market cycles, we believe we are well positioned to deliver our strategic objectives over the long term. We expect this period of macroeconomic challenges to be no different. Over time, we believe the strength and resiliency of our business model will endure, enabling us to execute on the 2023 and 2024 objectives we outlined at Investor Day.

調整後的每股收益（不包括可報告的貓）現在預計全年增長 14% 至 18%，反映了調整後 EBITDA 的這一觀點。當然，每股收益的增長也將得到股票回購的支持，包括在第二季度完成的 9 億美元的預售收益的返還。正如我們在歷史上通過各種市場週期所表明的那樣，我們相信我們有能力實現我們的長期戰略目標。我們預計這一時期的宏觀經濟挑戰也不例外。隨著時間的推移，我們相信我們的商業模式的實力和彈性將持續下去，使我們能夠執行我們在投資者日概述的 2023 年和 2024 年目標。

Looking forward, we expect adjusted EBITDA acceleration starting next year. While the earnings path may not be linear, we remain confident that in the long term, our combined lifestyle and housing business portfolio will continue to deliver attractive growth, strong cash flow generation and superior shareholder returns relative to the broader market.

展望未來，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將從明年開始加速。雖然盈利路徑可能不是線性的，但我們仍然相信，從長遠來看，我們的生活方式和住房業務組合將繼續帶來有吸引力的增長、強勁的現金流產生和相對於更廣泛市場的卓越股東回報。

I'll now turn the call over to Richard to review the second quarter results and our revised 2022 outlook in greater detail.

我現在將電話轉給理查德，以更詳細地審查第二季度業績和我們修訂後的 2022 年展望。

Thank you, Keith, and good morning, everyone. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding catastrophes, totaled $277 million, down 8% from the second quarter of 2021. As Keith mentioned, performance reflected the strong growth across global lifestyle and weaker results in Global Housing. For the quarter, we reported adjusted earnings per share excluding reportable catastrophes, of $3.25, flat from the prior year period. The 2021 baseline for lifestyle and housing adjusted EBITDA has been updated to remove noncore operations and reflect the accounting correction, Suzanne noted to our prior period results.

謝謝你，基思，大家早上好。不包括災難的調整後 EBITDA 總計 2.77 億美元，比 2021 年第二季度下降 8%。正如基思所說，業績反映了全球生活方式的強勁增長和全球住房的疲軟業績。對於本季度，我們報告了不包括可報告災難的調整後每股收益為 3.25 美元，與去年同期持平。 Suzanne 在我們前期的業績中指出，生活方式和住房調整後 EBITDA 的 2021 年基準已更新，以刪除非核心業務並反映會計更正。

Now let's move to segment results, starting in Global Lifestyle. The segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $207 million in the second quarter, a year-over-year increase of 12% driven by growth across both Connected Living and Global Automotive. Connected Living earnings increased by $12 million or 11% year-over-year. The increase was primarily driven by continued mobile expansion in North America device protection programs from cable operator and carrier clients, including subscriber growth and more favorable loss experience. This was partially offset by unfavorable foreign exchange.

現在讓我們轉向細分結果，從 Global Lifestyle 開始。該部門報告第二季度調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.07 億美元，在互聯生活和全球汽車業務增長的推動下，同比增長 12%。互聯生活收入同比增長 1200 萬美元或 11%。這一增長主要是由於有線電視運營商和運營商客戶在北美設備保護計劃中的持續移動擴展，包括用戶增長和更有利的損失體驗。這部分被不利的外匯所抵消。

In Global Automotive, earnings increased $10 million or 15%, primarily from higher investment income, including higher real estate gains and yields, favorable loss experience and select ancillary products also contributed to the results. As we look at revenue, Lifestyle revenue was up by $48 million or 3%, driven by continued growth in Global Automotive. Global Automotive revenue increased 7%, reflecting strong prior period sales of vehicle service contracts. Despite the overall U.S. auto market showing signs of slowing, our net written premiums remained strong even against the record second quarter of 2021, as additional dealerships and strong attachment rates are offsetting the market headwinds.

在全球汽車領域，收益增加了 1000 萬美元或 15%，主要來自更高的投資收益，包括更高的房地產收益和收益率、良好的損失經驗和精選的輔助產品也促成了這一結果。從收入來看，在全球汽車業務持續增長的推動下，生活方式的收入增長了 4800 萬美元或 3%。全球汽車收入增長 7%，反映了上一期汽車服務合同的強勁銷售。儘管整體美國汽車市場出現放緩跡象，但即使在 2021 年第二季度創紀錄的情況下，我們的淨承保保費仍然強勁，因為額外的經銷商和強勁的附加率抵消了市場逆風。

Within Connected Living, revenue was down slightly due to lower revenue in mobile, mainly from premium declines from runoff programs and unfavorable foreign exchange. This was partially offset by growth in subscribers in North America and higher mobile fee income driven by global mobile devices serviced. In the second quarter, the number of global mobile devices service increased by $1.1 million or approximately 18% to $7.2 million. This was due to higher trading volumes, supported by new phone introductions and carrier promotions from the growing adoption of 5G devices. In terms of mobile subscribers, growth in North America was partially offset by declines in runoff mobile programs previously mentioned, which also impacted mobile devices protected sequentially.

在互聯生活中，由於移動收入下降，收入略有下降，主要是由於徑流計劃和不利的外匯造成的保費下降。這部分被北美用戶的增長和全球移動設備服務推動的移動費用收入增加所抵消。第二季度，全球移動設備服務數量增加了 110 萬美元或約 18%，達到 720 萬美元。這是由於 5G 設備的日益普及，新手機的推出和運營商的促銷活動支持了更高的交易量。在移動用戶方面，北美的增長被前面提到的徑流移動程序的下降部分抵消，這也影響了順序保護的移動設備。

For full year 2022, we now expect lifestyle adjusted EBITDA growth to be mid- to high teens compared to 2021 baseline of $702 million. Mobile is expected to be the key driver of adjusted EBITDA growth for global expansion in existing and new clients across device protection and trade-in and upgrade programs. This will be partially offset by unfavorable impacts, from foreign exchange and strategic investments to support new business opportunities and client implementations. Auto adjusted EBITDA is expected to grow for the full year. But earnings in the second half are expected to be lower than the first half, mainly due to the absence of $14 million of real estate gains. Growth for the year will be partially offset by higher investment income and more favorable loss experience in select ancillary products.

與 2021 年的基線 7.02 億美元相比，我們現在預計 2022 年全年調整後的生活方式調整後的 EBITDA 增長將處於中高水平。預計移動設備將成為調整後 EBITDA 增長的主要驅動力，以推動現有客戶和新客戶在設備保護、以舊換新和升級計劃方面的全球擴張。這將被不利影響部分抵消，這些不利影響來自外彙和戰略投資，以支持新的商業機會和客戶實施。汽車調整後的 EBITDA 預計全年將增長。但預計下半年的收益將低於上半年，主要是由於沒有 1400 萬美元的房地產收益。今年的增長將被更高的投資收入和精選輔助產品的更有利的虧損經驗所部分抵消。

Moving to Global Housing. Adjusted EBITDA was $75 million, which included $20 million of reportable catastrophes for the second quarter. Excluding catastrophe losses, earnings decreased $40 million, primarily driven by $25 million in higher non-cat loss experience, largely in lender-placed and to a lesser extent, Multifamily Housing. This included $12 million in year-over-year reserve strengthening and higher fire losses in the quarter. The balance of the earnings reduction was driven mainly from $17 million in higher catastrophe reinsurance costs. The cost of our reinsurance program reflected both the higher exposures and increased pricing within the reinsurance market. And with the completion of our 2022 catastrophe reinsurance program in June, we believe we fared relatively well in the market given our strong relationships with our more than 40 reinsurance partners.

搬到全球住房。調整後的 EBITDA 為 7500 萬美元，其中包括第二季度 2000 萬美元的可報告災難。不包括巨災損失，收入減少了 4000 萬美元，主要是由於非巨災損失增加了 2500 萬美元，主要是貸款人安置的多戶住房，在較小程度上是多戶住房。這包括 1200 萬美元的同比儲備加強和本季度更高的火災損失。收入減少的餘額主要是由於巨災再保險成本增加了 1700 萬美元。我們的再保險計劃的成本反映了再保險市場中更高的風險敞口和更高的定價。隨著我們在 6 月完成 2022 年巨災再保險計劃，我們相信，鑑於我們與 40 多家再保險合作夥伴的牢固關係，我們在市場上的表現相對較好。

We maintained an $80 million per event retention including second and third events. We also continued to benefit from the placement of multiyear coverage covering 45% of our program and a cascading feature that provides multi-event protection. In Multifamily Housing, growth in our P&C channels was offset by increased non-cat losses and expenses from ongoing investments to expand our capabilities and further strengthen our client experience. Global Housing revenue was flat year-over-year as higher catastrophe reinsurance costs were offset by higher average insured values and lender placed.

我們為每個活動保留了 8000 萬美元，包括第二次和第三次活動。我們還繼續受益於覆蓋我們計劃 45% 的多年覆蓋和提供多事件保護的級聯功能。在 Multifamily Housing 中，我們 P&C 渠道的增長被不斷增加的非巨災損失和支出所抵消，這些持續投資是為了擴大我們的能力並進一步加強我們的客戶體驗。全球住房收入同比持平，因為較高的巨災再保險成本被較高的平均保險價值和放貸人所抵消。

For the full year, we now expect Global Housing adjusted EBITDA, excluding cats, to decline by low to mid-teens from the 2021 baseline of $512 million. In addition to the higher claims costs, REO volumes have continued to be muted and placement rate trends we are seeing are softer than originally expected. At the same time, we continue to realize expense efficiencies from new system enhancements and strength in digital capabilities. While the duration and magnitude of inflationary trends remain fluid, rate filings and inflation guards are expected to start to flow through premiums as we exit the year.

對於全年，我們現在預計全球住房調整後的 EBITDA（不包括貓）將從 2021 年的基線 5.12 億美元下降低至十幾歲。除了較高的索賠成本外，REO 的數量繼續保持低迷，我們看到的安置率趨勢比最初預期的要弱。與此同時，我們繼續通過新系統的增強和數字能力的力量來實現費用效率。儘管通脹趨勢的持續時間和幅度仍然不穩定，但隨著我們退出今年，預計利率申報和通脹守衛將開始通過保費流動。

At corporate, adjusted EBITDA loss was $25 million, up $8 million compared to the unusually low second quarter of 2021. This was mainly driven by higher employee-related and technology expenses. For full year 2022, we expect the corporate adjusted EBITDA loss to be approximately $105 million.

在企業方面，調整後的 EBITDA 虧損為 2500 萬美元，與 2021 年第二季度異常低的第二季度相比增加了 800 萬美元。這主要是由於員工相關費用和技術費用增加所致。對於 2022 年全年，我們預計公司調整後的 EBITDA 虧損約為 1.05 億美元。

Turning to holding company liquidity. We ended the second quarter with $595 million, $370 million above our current minimum target level. In the second quarter, dividends from our operating segments totaled $189 million. In addition to our quarterly corporate and interest expenses, we also had outflows from three main items: $232 million of share repurchases; $75 million from the repayment of our 2023 notes; and $39 million in common stock dividends. For the full year, our outlook assumes $365 million of shares repurchased from the remaining premium sale proceeds plus an additional $200 million to $300 million.

轉向持有公司流動性。我們以 5.95 億美元結束了第二季度，比我們目前的最低目標水平高出 3.7 億美元。第二季度，我們運營部門的股息總額為 1.89 億美元。除了我們的季度公司和利息支出外，我們還從三個主要項目中流出：2.32 億美元的股票回購；償還我們 2023 年票據的 7500 萬美元；以及 3900 萬美元的普通股股息。對於全年，我們的展望假設從剩餘的溢價出售收益中回購了 3.65 億美元的股票，再加上額外的 2 億至 3 億美元。

Through July, we've bought back $504 million worth of our stock. Given changes in investment portfolio values, reserve strengthening for noncore operations and accounting adjustments, we expect segment dividend to be moderately below our target of roughly 3/4 of segment adjusted EBITDA, including catastrophes. While lower, we still expect capital generation to be strong given our business model and product mix. As always, segment dividends are subject to the growth of the businesses, rating agency and regulatory capital requirements and investment portfolio performance.

截至 7 月，我們已經回購了價值 5.04 億美元的股票。考慮到投資組合價值的變化、非核心業務的儲備增加和會計調整，我們預計分部股息將略低於我們約 3/4 的分部調整後 EBITDA 的目標，包括災難。雖然較低，但鑑於我們的業務模式和產品組合，我們仍預計資本產生強勁。與往常一樣，分部股息受業務增長、評級機構和監管資本要求以及投資組合表現的影響。

In conclusion, we believe Assurant is well-positioned for long-term growth and strong capital generation, underscored by the attractive portfolio of Global Lifestyle and Global Housing businesses.

總之，我們認為 Assurant 在長期增長和強勁的資本生成方面處於有利地位，全球生活方式和全球住房業務的有吸引力的投資組合突顯了這一點。

And with that, operator, please open the call for questions.

有了這個，接線員，請打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Michael Phillips from Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）您的第一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Michael Phillips。

So I guess I want to talk on the inflationary pressures you're seeing on the lender-placed, but can we switch that over to the lifestyle side? And anything that you're seeing there on either Auto or Mobile, maybe you can talk about how much risk you retain on that side. It's clearly not 100%. But anything that you're seeing there that might cause pressure from inflationary pressures there? And if so, kind of your ability to combat that?

所以我想我想談談你在放貸人身上看到的通脹壓力，但我們可以把它轉移到生活方式方面嗎？以及您在汽車或移動設備上看到的任何內容，也許您可以談論您在這方面保留了多少風險。這顯然不是 100%。但是你在那裡看到的任何可能導致那裡的通貨膨脹壓力的壓力？如果是這樣，你有什麼能力與之抗爭？

Terrific. Yes. So I think the Lifestyle business has obviously performed very well this year. We've raised the outlook for the full year. So we're confident in the momentum. I would say in terms of the resiliency, we've been dealing with a couple of things, certainly inflationary pressures, but also supply chain constraints as you think about the last couple of years of the pandemic, particularly around parts, both on the Connected Living and the Auto side.

了不起。是的。所以我認為生活方式業務今年顯然表現得非常好。我們上調了全年的展望。因此，我們對這一勢頭充滿信心。我想說的是，就彈性而言，我們一直在處理一些事情，當然是通脹壓力，還有供應鏈限制，因為你考慮到過去幾年的大流行，尤其是在連接的部分周圍生活和汽車方面。

So I think the nature of our deal structures is quite favorable. 2/3 of the time we're not holding the risk relative to the services we perform and the programs that we manage. So that's been very helpful. I'd say we've got a stronger orientation to fee income, even in deals where we retain risk, we're targeting fees. We've got typically allowable loss ratios, ability to reprice. You will see timing issues occur in terms of -- sometimes losses are a little higher, we may recover that over time with client deal structures.

所以我認為我們交易結構的性質是非常有利的。 2/3 的時間我們沒有承擔與我們執行的服務和我們管理的項目相關的風險。所以這非常有幫助。我想說我們對費用收入有更強的定位，即使在我們保留風險的交易中，我們的目標是費用。我們有通常允許的損失率，重新定價的能力。您會看到時間問題發生在——有時損失會更高一些，我們可能會隨著時間的推移通過客戶交易結構來恢復。

But it hasn't been an issue that's emerged over the course of the last several quarters. We feel really good about it, certainly never fully insulated, but a very different operating model. And then if you think about inflation on the housing side, we've got rate filings, inflation guard and a number of factors that are being put in place to combat that. So lifestyle has been quite resilient from that perspective.

但這並不是在過去幾個季度中出現的問題。我們對此感覺非常好，當然永遠不會完全絕緣，而是一種非常不同的運營模式。然後，如果您考慮住房方面的通脹，我們有利率申報、通脹守衛和許多正在實施的因素來應對這一問題。所以從這個角度來看，生活方式是相當有彈性的。

Okay. Okay. You mentioned, Keith, on the opening comments about -- on the lender-placed side, in inflation guard and then you also mentioned double-digit on renewals. Was that the same -- was that double digit? Was that the inflation guard? Or is that on top of the inflation gaurd?

好的。好的。基思，你在開場評論中提到了 - 在放貸方，通脹守衛，然後你還提到了兩位數的續約。是一樣的——是兩位數嗎？那是通脹守衛嗎？或者是在通脹保護之上？

So the -- so if you think about inflation guard, we put a double-digit rate increase in July. So that is going to flow through the book as it renews. We've also got regular course rate filings. We've been accelerating rate filings with states, obviously, as severities have been higher and losses have been higher. We've actually gotten 30 state rate filings approved this year, not all of which have been fully implemented, but they're all approved and will be implemented by the end of the next year -- or by the end of this year, sorry. And then we've got an additional set of discussions ongoing with states. So that additional rate layers on top of the double-digit increase that we talked about relative to inflation guard.

所以 - 所以如果你考慮通脹守衛，我們在 7 月份提出了兩位數的加息。因此，這將在本書更新時流淌。我們也有定期的課程費率文件。顯然，我們一直在加快向各州提交申請的速度，因為嚴重程度更高，損失也更高。今年我們實際上已經批准了 30 個州的稅率申報，並不是所有的都已完全實施，但它們都已獲得批准，並將在明年年底前實施 - 或今年年底前，對不起.然後我們與各州進行了一系列額外的討論。因此，在我們談到的相對於通脹守衛的兩位數增長之上，還有額外的利率層。

Is there any difference in here, can you maybe just talk about the difference that you have in those other rate filings by state that you're alluding to, different than a traditional, say, homeowners insurance company where the clients are individuals like me and you, your clients knowing your place are a little different. So does that give any differences in the ability, the speed at which or the ability to take higher rate and the speed that you can take them than maybe a traditional insurance company?

這裡有什麼不同嗎，你能不能只談談你在那些你所暗示的州的其他費率文件中的不同之處，不同於傳統的，比如，客戶是像我這樣的個人的房主保險公司你，你的客戶知道你的地方有點不同。那麼，與傳統保險公司相比，這是否會在能力、速度或採取更高利率的能力以及您可以採取的速度方面產生任何差異？

Yes. I think probably a couple of things. First of all, these are short-tail policies, they're annual policies. So as we do get rate, it flows through over a 12-month period, number one. I think the fact that we've got inflation guard built into the product, we don't have to get approval. That's already approved, and we just apply an inflationary factor every year. That drives AIVs up and corresponding increases to rate. So that -- I would call that normal course.

是的。我想可能有幾件事。首先，這些是短尾政策，是年度政策。因此，當我們確實獲得利率時，它會在 12 個月內流動，排名第一。我認為我們在產品中內置了通脹保護這一事實，我們不必獲得批准。這已經被批准了，我們每年只應用一個通貨膨脹因素。這推動了 AIV 的上升並相應地提高了利率。所以——我稱之為正常課程。

Obviously, inflation is elevated. The industry data supports a higher inflation factor driving more AIV. In terms of the rate, I think as we work with states, we're really looking at the historical experience to justify the increases that we're getting. And I'd say that, that happens like very consistently with what other insurers would be doing. But we've been more aggressive as others have, just in terms of the heightened severities that we're seeing in the marketplace.

很明顯，通貨膨脹正在上升。行業數據支持更高的通脹因素推動更多 AIV。就利率而言，我認為當我們與各州合作時，我們真的在看歷史經驗來證明我們獲得的增長是合理的。我想說的是，這與其他保險公司的做法非常一致。但就我們在市場上看到的日益嚴重的嚴重性而言，我們和其他人一樣更具侵略性。

So good opportunity to get rate. We're looking to make fair returns on the business. I would say it doesn't have a huge impact on volume. So we've got exceptional relationships with our clients. Obviously, this is a lender-placed policy, and we expect to see consistent policy counts as we move forward even in this higher inflationary environment with more rate flowing through.

獲得利率的好機會。我們希望在業務上獲得公平的回報。我會說它對音量沒有太大影響。因此，我們與客戶建立了特殊的關係。顯然，這是一項由貸方制定的政策，即使在這種更高的通脹環境和更多的利率流動中，我們也希望在我們前進的過程中看到一致的政策計數。

Congrats, and best of luck in the future.

恭喜你，祝你未來好運。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Schmitt from William Blair.

我們的下一個問題來自 William Blair 的 Jeff Schmitt。

What is your view on where the placement rate in the lender-placed business could go next year if we move into a recession, whether we're in one now or not, let's say, sort of a deeper recession if interest rates continue to move up, could that move above 2% pretty quickly? Or where do you think that could go?

如果我們進入衰退，您對明年放貸業務的安置率有何看法？無論我們現在是否處於衰退之中向上，能很快超過 2% 嗎？或者你認為它可以去哪裡？

Yes. I think it depends on a range of factors. I would say that as you see the placement rates are relatively stable and have been so for several quarters, and that's just the strength of the housing market, the fact that there's so much positive equity. And I also think about placement rate really tracking closely to delinquency and you've got a prevalence of servicers working on loan modifications, a lot of loss mitigation efforts that's really limiting delinquency, it's limiting foreclosure activity.

是的。我認為這取決於一系列因素。我想說的是，正如你所看到的，安置率相對穩定，並且已經持續了幾個季度，這只是房地產市場的實力，事實上有如此多的正資產。而且我還認為安置率確實與拖欠密切相關，並且您有大量的服務人員致力於修改貸款，許多減輕損失的努力確實限制了拖欠，它限制了止贖活動。

Obviously, if that starts to shift and that starts to change and delinquency rates rise at any level significantly, that would have a corresponding impact on our placement rate. Obviously, if there are more foreclosures that would drive up our REO volumes, which are really probably 1/3 of pre-pandemic level. So there's certainly upside over time in placement rate. The real question is, when does that emerge in the economy just because of the strength of the Housing market.

顯然，如果這種情況開始發生變化並且開始發生變化並且拖欠率顯著上升，那將對我們的安置率產生相應的影響。顯然，如果有更多的止贖將推高我們的 REO 數量，這實際上可能是大流行前水平的 1/3。因此，隨著時間的推移，安置率肯定會上升。真正的問題是，僅僅因為房地產市場的強勁，這種情況何時會出現在經濟中。

You've also got rising interest rate pressure, certainly, a hardening voluntary insurance market, higher inflationary pressure. So I think we need to see how the economy responds and how consumers respond to get a better feel. We're not counting on a big increase in placement rates as we think about our longer-term expectations. And obviously, if that does happen, that's where we talk about it being a countercyclical hedge from a housing perspective.

你還面臨著不斷上升的利率壓力，當然，自願保險市場的硬化，更高的通脹壓力。所以我認為我們需要看看經濟如何反應以及消費者如何反應以獲得更好的感覺。在考慮我們的長期預期時，我們並不指望安置率會大幅提高。顯然，如果確實發生了這種情況，這就是我們所說的從住房角度來看它是一種反週期對沖。

Right. Okay. That makes sense. And then the expense ratio in Global Housing continues to run above 46%. I think in the past, you've guided to sort of 44% to 46%. Is there some kind of inflation driving that higher? Or when do you think it could move below that 46% level?

正確的。好的。那講得通。然後全球住房的費用率繼續超過46%。我認為在過去，你指導的比例是 44% 到 46%。是否有某種通貨膨脹推動如此之高？或者你認為它什麼時候會低於 46% 的水平？

Yes. And maybe, Richard, do you want to talk about expenses?

是的。也許，理查德，你想談談費用嗎？

Yes. Yes, it's a great question. It is up a little bit over the last quarter to 46%. So I think you're right. It's a little bit higher than we'd like to see it. We are -- we've talked about in previous calls. We are investing digitalization in projects like that, create more efficiencies, as Keith said in his opening remarks. So we would see that, I would say, over time as these projects and these efforts come through. Also, the first question on placement rates as the volumes of the business grow, obviously, the things that we have in place in our operations are very leverageable. So that would also bring down the expense ratio over time.

是的。是的，這是一個很好的問題。它比上一季度略有上升，達到 46%。所以我認為你是對的。它比我們希望看到的要高一點。我們是——我們在之前的電話會議中談到過。正如基思在開場白中所說，我們正在對此類項目進行數字化投資，以提高效率。所以我們會看到，我會說，隨著這些項目和這些努力的實施，隨著時間的推移。此外，隨著業務量的增長，關於安置率的第一個問題顯然是，我們在運營中擁有的東西非常具有槓桿作用。因此，隨著時間的推移，這也會降低費用比率。

Your next question comes from the line of Tommy McJoynt from KBW.

您的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Tommy McJoynt。

So what are the expectations for the noncore operations loss contribution going forward? Is that meant to be more of a breakeven? I know it's excluded from the guidance. And what's the general time horizon for that wind down?

那麼，對未來非核心業務損失貢獻的預期是什麼？這是否意味著更多的盈虧平衡？我知道它被排除在指導之外。風平浪靜的一般時間範圍是多少？

Sure. Maybe I can start, and then Richard can add on. So we made the decision this quarter, as we talked about, to exit all of our long-tail liability business and driven by the decision around sharing economy. So as we talked about, just wasn't strategically aligned with the direction that we're headed as a company. And it was highly specialized niche business with inherent risk and volatility. We didn't see a path to leadership. We didn't think we could generate the financial returns. But it wasn't strategically aligned with the direction of the company.

當然。也許我可以開始，然後理查德可以補充。因此，正如我們所談到的，我們在本季度做出了退出所有長尾責任業務的決定，並受到共享經濟決策的推動。所以正如我們所說，只是在戰略上與我們作為一家公司的發展方向不一致。它是高度專業化的利基業務，具有固有的風險和波動性。我們沒有看到通往領導的道路。我們認為我們無法產生財務回報。但它在戰略上與公司的方向不一致。

So as part of that, all of the clients have already been notified. All of the contracts will be non-renewed. I would say, by first quarter of '23, the net earned premium will be immaterial. And by this time next year, it will be gone completely, really just at that point, managing the runoff. As you saw, we put up a reserve. So as we exited did a very comprehensive top-to-bottom review of the performance of the business, I did a lot of scenario analysis to try to think about how this could emerge over time, put up a full reserve to adequately cover the runoff, which we think is appropriate and look to put this behind us.

因此，作為其中的一部分，所有客戶都已收到通知。所有合同將不再續簽。我想說，到 23 年第一季度，淨賺取的保費將無關緊要。到明年這個時候，它將完全消失，真的只是在那個時候，管理徑流。如您所見，我們設置了儲備金。因此，當我們退出時，我們對業務表現進行了非常全面的自上而下的審查，我進行了大量的情景分析，試圖思考隨著時間的推移，這種情況會如何出現，並準備好全額儲備以充分覆蓋徑流，我們認為這是適當的，並希望將其拋在腦後。

Okay. And I guess, as you kind of explored what to do with those businesses, there was no way to sort of monetize what you've built there. And I guess, just you have typically been kind of sellers and ways to monetize things, there just wouldn't be any kind of takers for those businesses?

好的。而且我想，當你探索如何處理這些業務時，沒有辦法將你在那裡建立的東西貨幣化。而且我猜，只是您通常是某種賣家和貨幣化的方式，這些業務就不會有任何類型的接受者嗎？

Yes. I think potentially, we could have looked at that as a path. We didn't see it viable. And really, it could have become a distraction to focusing on driving growth through the rest of the organization. We will certainly consider alternatives now that we've put it in runoff to see if there's a way to structure something around sharing the risk with a third party. That's certainly possible, and we'll look to consider that. But the value for monetization, I would say, was lower than the distraction factor of trying to work through that process quite candidly.

是的。我認為潛在地，我們可以將其視為一條道路。我們認為它不可行。真的，它可能會分散注意力，讓我們無法專注於推動組織其他部門的增長。我們肯定會考慮替代方案，因為我們已經將其放入徑流中，看看是否有辦法圍繞與第三方分擔風險來構建一些東西。這當然是可能的，我們會考慮這一點。但我想說的是，貨幣化的價值低於試圖坦率地完成這個過程的分心因素。

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes from Truist Securities.

您的下一個問題來自 Truist Securities 的 Mark Hughes。

The multifamily business is kind of flat in terms of top line this quarter. What's happening there?

就本季度的收入而言，多戶家庭業務有點平淡。那裡發生了什麼？

Yes. So a couple of things. First of all, I would say we feel like we're really well-positioned in the retros business. We've got 2.6 million customers. So it's giving us a great opportunity in terms of market leadership, scale. We've been investing in the customer experience, deepening our expertise. So we do expect long-term growth. It's a very attractive part of the market.

是的。所以有幾件事。首先，我想說我們覺得我們在復古業務中處於有利地位。我們有 260 萬客戶。因此，它在市場領導地位和規模方面為我們提供了絕佳機會。我們一直在投資於客戶體驗，深化我們的專業知識。因此，我們確實期望長期增長。這是市場中非常有吸引力的一部分。

I would say in terms of the results being flat, we do have strength in growth within the property management company channel. So that continues to grow exceptionally well. We're gaining share. We're driving attach rates, and we're having a lot of success with our Cover360 product, really just more integrated into the byflow. We've talked about better digital tools, collecting the insurance as part of the rent and just leveraging our full capability. So that's going extremely well.

我想說，就業績持平而言，我們在物業管理公司渠道內確實有增長實力。所以它繼續增長得非常好。我們正在獲得份額。我們正在提高附加率，並且我們的 Cover360 產品取得了很大的成功，實際上只是更多地集成到了旁路中。我們已經討論了更好的數字工具，將保險作為租金的一部分，並充分利用我們的全部能力。所以進展非常順利。

We have an affinity portion of our business, which the growth has slowed where we partner with insurance companies. I think as insurance companies have been focusing on getting rate and dealing with inflationary pressures, a little less marketing generally with some of our partners. So I think that normalizes over time as the economy finds more stability in the future. But we are seeing growth, and we do think long-term growth will emerge as we continue to focus on this part of our business.

我們的業務有親和力部分，在我們與保險公司合作的地方，增長已經放緩。我認為，由於保險公司一直專注於獲得費率和應對通脹壓力，因此通常與我們的一些合作夥伴進行較少的營銷。因此，我認為隨著經濟在未來更加穩定，這種情況會隨著時間的推移而正常化。但我們看到了增長，我們確實認為，隨著我們繼續專注於這部分業務，長期增長將會出現。

And, Richard, the investment portfolio, what do you anticipate in terms of the progression in the yield? What's the new money yield? What kind of turnover is there in the portfolio? A little bit on that would be helpful.

而且，Richard，投資組合，您對收益率的進展有何預期？新的貨幣收益率是多少？投資組合中有什麼樣的營業額？一點點會有所幫助。

Yes, sure, Mark. Yes. First of all, I would say that rising interest rates overall are good for the business, and we've been seeing that in this quarter as well. We've had some real estate gains, as we mentioned in our remarks, but we also have fixed income and yields on fixed income raising. We have a 5-year duration. So think about 20% of the portfolio rolling over every year. So we won't have any quantum step in terms of long-term rates and long-term yields. But it will gradually increase over time, which is a good thing. I think you probably saw the yield for this quarter over 3.5%, which is quite good.

是的，當然，馬克。是的。首先，我想說整體利率上升對企業有利，我們在本季度也看到了這一點。正如我們在評論中提到的那樣，我們已經獲得了一些房地產收益，但我們也有固定收益和固定收益增加的收益率。我們的期限為 5 年。所以想想每年有 20% 的投資組合滾動。因此，在長期利率和長期收益率方面，我們不會有任何量子步驟。但它會隨著時間的推移逐漸增加，這是一件好事。我認為您可能看到本季度的收益率超過 3.5%，這非常好。

What's interesting too about it is if we look at our book of business, if we go back a year from now, the assets that were coming to maturity or the fixed income coming to maturity, we're rolling over at lower levels than they were maturing at. Now they're rolling over for the most part at higher levels. So that bodes well for the future. And short-term rates, yes, we have some of our money and cash, obviously. And we're getting an immediate impact on that. Obviously, smaller dollars given a smaller level of cash that we have relative to the fixed income portfolio.

有趣的是，如果我們看一下我們的業務賬簿，如果我們從現在開始回溯一年後，即將到期的資產或即將到期的固定收益，我們的滾動水平比以前低成熟於。現在他們大部分都在更高的水平上滾動。所以這對未來來說是個好兆頭。短期利率，是的，很明顯，我們有一些錢和現金。我們正在對此產生立竿見影的影響。顯然，相對於固定收益投資組合，我們擁有的現金水平較低，因此美元較少。

Then, Keith, you had -- I think you said you expect adjusted EBITDA to accelerate next year. Could I hear that properly? And any other metrics you want to throw out for next year, maybe EPS growth?

然後，基思，你有 - 我想你說過你預計明年調整後的 EBITDA 會加速。我能聽清楚嗎？以及您想為明年拋棄的任何其他指標，也許是每股收益增長？

Yes. I think as we look at the year at 3% to 6% in terms of our EBITDA growth. We certainly expect that to be increasing as we move into 2023. And I'd say, largely, we do expect the lender-placed business and Housing overall to continue to improve as we get more rate. And then we do have great momentum in Lifestyle. So we haven't set the specific target for 2023 and 2024. What we have said is on average, we want to deliver north of 10% EBITDA growth. We're still committed to our long-term objectives from Investor Day, which I think is really important. And we're going to do everything we can to deliver those results and be accountable to delivering our financial commitments.

是的。我認為，就我們的 EBITDA 增長而言，我們今年將增長 3% 至 6%。我們當然預計，隨著我們進入 2023 年，這種情況會增加。我想說，在很大程度上，我們確實預計隨著利率的提高，貸方的業務和住房整體將繼續改善。然後我們在生活方式方面確實有很大的發展勢頭。所以我們還沒有設定 2023 年和 2024 年的具體目標。我們所說的是平均而言，我們希望實現 10% 以上的 EBITDA 增長。我們仍然致力於實現投資者日的長期目標，我認為這非常重要。我們將盡我們所能來實現這些結果，並負責履行我們的財務承諾。

And then just one final one. The timing of the rate increase is going to get the inflation guard for the lender-placed, does that only kick in if there is a renewal cycle around that? Or why wouldn't that kick in immediately?

然後只有最後一個。加息的時機將使貸方設置通脹守衛，這是否只有在圍繞這一更新周期的情況下才會生效？或者為什麼不立即啟動？

Yes. So the policies are annual, and they renew it each year. So if you think about, let's take July, for example, we put in place double-digit rate increases for the cohort of annual policies that renewed in July. So think about that rate going in 1\12 at a time over 12 months and then think about it earning 1/12 at a time after it's in place. So the whole cycle takes 24 months, but it builds momentum month by month by month.

是的。所以這些政策是年度的，而且他們每年都會更新。因此，如果您考慮一下，讓我們以 7 月為例，我們為 7 月更新的年度政策隊列實施了兩位數的加息。所以想想這個比率在 12 個月內一次 1\12，然後想想它在到位後一次賺取 1/12。所以整個週期需要24個月，但它會逐月建立動力。

And then we've also got, as I said, state-related rate increases that go in at different periods in the year. That's also contributing. And I mentioned 30 approved rates really affecting about 75% of our premium overall and then a number of additional filings that are ongoing. So we do feel like we've got a great opportunity with rate, it's a terrific mechanism and designed to deal with inflationary pressures. And we expect it to work, and we expect to get the housing business where it needs to be from a total return perspective.

然後，正如我所說，我們還得到了一年中不同時期與州相關的加息。這也是有貢獻的。我提到了 30 項批准的費率確實影響了我們整體保費的 75%，然後還有一些正在進行的額外申請。所以我們確實覺得我們有一個很好的利率機會，這是一個了不起的機制，旨在應對通脹壓力。我們希望它能夠奏效，並且我們希望從總回報的角度來看，房地產業務能夠達到它需要的水平。

The one thing that's interesting, if you think about Housing, and it's a tough quarter, right? We're not pleased with the results in the quarter. The first half housing combined ratio is 86%. The first half annualized ROE, it's 20.6%. That will normalize as we get through the rest of the year. But we still think it will be quite strong overall, given we're underperforming our own expectations.

有趣的是，如果您考慮住房，這是一個艱難的季度，對嗎？我們對本季度的結果不滿意。上半年住房綜合成本率為86%。上半年年化ROE，20.6%。隨著我們度過今年剩下的時間，這將正常化。但我們仍然認為總體上會相當強勁，因為我們的表現低於自己的預期。

So I do want to highlight that as the backdrop. It is a strong business. It generates tremendous cash flow. We've got great market-leading advantages, and the financial performance is still strong. It's just not where we want it to be to deliver on our total commitments.

所以我確實想強調它作為背景。這是一項強大的業務。它產生了巨大的現金流。我們有很大的市場領先優勢，財務表現依然強勁。這不是我們想要兌現我們的全部承諾的地方。

Your next question comes from the line of John Barnidge from Piper Sandler.

您的下一個問題來自 Piper Sandler 的 John Barnidge。

You talked about a -- signing a multiyear renewal with a cable operator. Last quarter, you also talked about an expanded relationship. Can you talk about maybe what the renewal calendar looks like? And how do you think about potential hit rates for expanded relationships as you come up on renewal?

您談到了與有線電視運營商簽署多年續約協議。上個季度，您還談到了擴大關係。你能談談更新日曆的樣子嗎？當您提出續約時，您如何看待擴展關係的潛在命中率？

Yes. We've had a pretty good track record of maintaining our clients, and this is true across the board. We actually renewed two of our larger lender-placed clients on the housing side this quarter. I didn't mention in the prepared remarks, but our team did a fantastic job on those client renewals. And I'd say that we've got a track record of renewing clients. Average tenure of clients is extremely long. So we're proud of that, and it's all based on delivering and executing for the clients, but ultimately for end consumers.

是的。我們在維護客戶方面有著非常好的記錄，這在所有方面都是正確的。實際上，本季度我們在住房方面更新了兩個較大的貸方客戶。我沒有在準備好的評論中提到，但我們的團隊在這些客戶續訂方面做得非常出色。我想說的是，我們有更新客戶的記錄。客戶的平均任期非常長。所以我們為此感到自豪，這一切都基於為客戶交付和執行，但最終是為最終消費者。

In terms of the cable space, I think we've become a market leader with cable operators who are -- who have entered the mobile space, they're growing rapidly. They're evolving their products and services meaningfully every year, and we're really proud of the work that our teams have done there. And I think that's built a lot of momentum.

就有線電視領域而言，我認為我們已經成為有線電視運營商的市場領導者，他們已經進入移動領域，並且發展迅速。他們每年都在有意義地改進他們的產品和服務，我們為我們的團隊在那裡所做的工作感到非常自豪。我認為這建立了很大的動力。

So we're strong with carriers. We're strong with new market entrants. And we've been a company that's been quite nimble in how we've approached the market. Hopefully, that also sets us up to grow new relationships with new clients as we move forward. And we think we're extremely well-positioned in Connected Living, And we've invested significantly over many, many years to get to this position, and we have great fantastic momentum.

所以我們在運營商方面很強大。我們擁有強大的新市場進入者。我們一直是一家在進入市場方面非常靈活的公司。希望這也能讓我們在前進的過程中與新客戶建立新的關係。而且我們認為我們在互聯生活方面處於非常有利的位置，並且我們已經進行了很多很多年的大量投資來達到這個位置，而且我們擁有巨大的發展勢頭。

And then as it relates to expanded relationships similar to what you announced today and then in the first quarter, how do you think about the potential to leverage what you've done so far?

然後，由於它涉及類似於您今天和第一季度宣布的擴展關係，您如何看待利用您迄今為止所做的事情的潛力？

Yes. I think -- when I look at the growth opportunity in Connected Living, I still think that we have more growth opportunity there than in any business that we operate. And it's growing the fastest and it's the largest contributor to financial results. So that's a pretty strong place to be. On your biggest, most successful business still has more white space, both in terms of the core of what we do, but also in terms of expanding our scope of services and then winning new clients. We've talked about trade-in and the fact that we do trade-in services with multiple brands now around the world. That creates opportunity for us to build deeper partnerships where we can add additional value over time. As we think about the evolution, we've talked a lot about leveraging our network for in-store repair. Those are additional capabilities. We operate 500 CPR stores. That is something that we want to continue to leverage to create value for our partners.

是的。我認為 - 當我看到 Connected Living 的增長機會時，我仍然認為我們在那裡的增長機會比我們經營的任何業務都多。它的增長速度最快，也是財務業績的最大貢獻者。所以這是一個非常強大的地方。在您最大、最成功的業務上，無論是在我們工作的核心方面，還是在擴大我們的服務範圍和贏得新客戶方面，仍然有更多的空白。我們已經討論了以舊換新以及我們現在在世界各地與多個品牌進行以舊換新服務的事實。這為我們創造了建立更深層次的合作夥伴關係的機會，我們可以隨著時間的推移增加額外的價值。當我們考慮演變時，我們已經談論了很多關於利用我們的網絡進行店內維修的事情。這些是附加功能。我們經營 500 家 CPR 商店。我們希望繼續利用這一點為我們的合作夥伴創造價值。

As I think about the work that we've done with T-Mobile, that's another great example in terms of service and repair. It wasn't designed to be a significant financial contributor overall. It was designed around how do we give consumers choice and better options to get their repairs done at their convenience. As I think about that part of the business, volumes have been a little lower than expected, but customer feedback and Net Promoter Scores have been exceptional, and I would say higher than we would have otherwise anticipated. We actively work to optimize that program to modify the program and expect over time, changes to be financially beneficial for both parties. So a lot of interesting momentum in this part of the business.

當我想到我們使用 T-Mobile 所做的工作時，這是服務和維修方面的另一個很好的例子。總體而言，它的設計初衷並非是重要的財務貢獻者。它的設計是圍繞我們如何為消費者提供選擇和更好的選擇，以便在他們方便的時候完成維修。當我想到這部分業務時，銷量略低於預期，但客戶反饋和淨推薦值非常出色，我會說比我們原本預期的要高。我們積極努力優化該計劃以修改該計劃，並期望隨著時間的推移，這些改變對雙方都有利。所以這部分業務有很多有趣的勢頭。

Great. And then if I could ask one more question. On the expense initiatives that you talked about, which should help to offset inflation. Is there a way to size or dimension how we should be thinking about these scale economies?

偉大的。然後如果我可以再問一個問題。關於你談到的開支計劃，這應該有助於抵消通貨膨脹。有沒有辦法確定我們應該如何考慮這些規模經濟？

Yes. So probably a couple of thoughts, and then Richard can certainly add in. We have seen progress in a lot of the great efforts by our team, particularly in housing on digital first, so really transforming our operations and driving more efficiency and better experience. That's building quarter over quarter over quarter. So we do see momentum in the second half and further acceleration as we get into 2023, even at the current level of placement rates in the current scale.

是的。所以可能有幾個想法，然後理查德當然可以加入。我們已經看到我們團隊的許多巨大努力取得了進展，特別是在數字優先的住房方面，因此真正改變了我們的運營並推動了更高的效率和更好的體驗。這是一個季度一個季度一個季度的增長。因此，我們確實看到了下半年的勢頭，並在進入 2023 年時進一步加速，即使在當前規模的當前安置率水平上也是如此。

We're also looking to continue to simplify the business. optimize support structures, how do we focus our energy where we can move the needle the most. So that work is ongoing as well. And then to Richard's earlier point, if we do get an increase in volume through placement rate over time, we have natural economies of scale that will benefit the P&L over time.

我們還希望繼續簡化業務。優化支撐結構，我們如何將精力集中在最能移動針頭的地方。因此，這項工作也在進行中。然後到理查德早先的觀點，如果我們確實通過放置率隨著時間的推移而增加交易量，我們就會擁有自然的規模經濟，這將使損益隨著時間的推移而受益。

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Meredith from UBS.

您的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Brian Meredith。

A couple here. First, Keith, could you remind us what the potential impact here? Is it from a consumer-led recession on mobile subs as well as just growth as well as like average revenue per subscriber. Will you see that decline if you've got a kind of consumer-led recession?

這裡有一對。首先，Keith，你能提醒我們這裡的潛在影響是什麼嗎？是來自消費者主導的移動訂閱衰退，還是增長以及每個用戶的平均收入。如果您遇到某種以消費者為主導的衰退，您會看到這種下降嗎？

Yes. I think from a mobile perspective, I would say that, first of all, there still seems to be very strong demand for high-end smartphones in key markets, even as we see pressure in the economy. The high-end smartphone market is up year-over-year, and it's up in our core markets. So that's a really good thing. We see clients continuing to push for growth today to take advantage of their investments in 5G and the relevance of the mobile device today, it's increasingly important for consumers. So that's helpful backdrop.

是的。我認為從移動的角度來看，首先，即使我們看到經濟壓力，關鍵市場對高端智能手機的需求似乎仍然非常強勁。高端智能手機市場同比增長，而且在我們的核心市場中也在增長。所以這是一件非常好的事情。我們看到客戶今天繼續推動增長，以利用他們對 5G 的投資以及當今移動設備的相關性，這對消費者來說越來越重要。所以這是有用的背景。

I would say that the majority of our total economics in mobile are driven by our device protection subscribers. We've got 63.5 million global subs. Whether a customer buys a new device or retains their old device, it doesn't move that number a significant amount. Obviously, if our clients are growing or shrinking in terms of net adds, that can have an impact over time, but fairly moderated and based on the nature of the subscription service. Where I would see more pressure would be potentially less trade-in activity, if there were less mobile phone sales, which we certainly haven't seen. Mobile phone sales are strong, trade-ins are very strong, but that would be the leading indicator if trade-in starts to slow down.

我想說的是，我們在移動領域的總體經濟大部分是由我們的設備保護用戶驅動的。我們有 6350 萬全球訂閱者。無論客戶是購買新設備還是保留舊設備，都不會大幅移動該數字。顯然，如果我們的客戶在淨增加方面增長或縮小，隨著時間的推移，這可能會產生影響，但會受到相當緩和的影響，並且取決於訂閱服務的性質。如果手機銷售減少，我會看到更大的壓力可能會減少以舊換新活動，這是我們當然沒有看到的。手機銷售強勁，以舊換新非常強勁，但如果以舊換新開始放緩，這將是領先指標。

That's not a big driver of total economics. The counterpoint would be used devices will become more valuable, more attractive, and there may be other ways for us to monetize it. So I think mobile is relatively protected from any kind of short-term shocks from a recessionary environment.

這不是總體經濟的主要驅動力。與之相對的是，使用過的設備將變得更有價值、更具吸引力，並且我們可能還有其他方式將其貨幣化。因此，我認為移動設備相對免受衰退環境帶來的任何短期衝擊。

But I'm just curious also if -- because I know you've all talked about selling additional services per sub, right? And that's been a big -- does that slow down? Or is somebody did not take that optional AppleCare or whatever it is product?

但我也很好奇——因為我知道你們都談到過為每個潛艇出售額外的服務，對吧？這是一個很大的 - 這會放慢速度嗎？還是有人沒有採用可選的 AppleCare 或其他任何產品？

No, I don't think so. I think we've seen really steady attach, really steady churn. I think consumers are inclined to protect high-end devices generally. And certainly, if there are more strap for cash having protection in place is probably a good thing. But we haven't seen through economic cycles, really material changes in terms of the attach of the churn over time. So we don't expect that would be a big driver.

不，我不這麼認為。我認為我們已經看到了非常穩定的連接，非常穩定的流失。我認為消費者普遍傾向於保護高端設備。當然，如果有更多的現金帶，有適當的保護可能是一件好事。但我們還沒有看透經濟周期，隨著時間的推移，隨著時間的推移，客戶流失的附加程度確實發生了重大變化。所以我們不認為這會是一個很大的驅動力。

Got you. And then I guess my next question, just curious, we've talked about the lender-placed, but on the multifamily business, what's the impact of inflation there? I would imagine you get some pressure there as well potentially.

得到你。然後我想我的下一個問題，只是好奇，我們已經討論了放貸人的問題，但是對於多戶型企業，那裡的通貨膨脹有什麼影響？我想你也可能在那裡受到一些壓力。

Yes. Definitely, there is some incremental increases in the non-cat loss ratio. Certainly, a little bit of that is inflation. But I would say, broadly, it's more getting to in-line with pre-pandemic. So we saw more favorability in loss ratios as people were home more during the pandemic. I think we've seen that normalize. And obviously, we get rate adjustments on that product line, too, as needed and as justified. But I don't see a huge inflationary impact. It's more just lining up with historicals.

是的。當然，非貓損失率有一些增量增加。當然，其中有一點是通貨膨脹。但我想說，從廣義上講，它更符合大流行前的情況。因此，隨著人們在大流行期間更多地在家，我們看到損失率更有利。我想我們已經看到了正常化。顯然，我們也會根據需要和合理的情況對該產品線進行費率調整。但我沒有看到巨大的通脹影響。它更多地只是與歷史相吻合。

So it's more from a frequency perspective, that things are picking up rather than severity, okay.

所以更多的是從頻率的角度來看，事情正在好轉，而不是嚴重，好吧。

Correct.

正確的。

And then just quickly, last question, Richard, just curious the, call it, underlying loss ratio for Global Housing was 47%, but when you adjust out some of the current year development and prior year development. Kind of what's the baseline kind of run rate loss ratio in that non-benefit ratio?

然後很快，最後一個問題，理查德，只是好奇，稱之為，全球住房的潛在損失率為 47%，但是當你調整一些當年的發展和上一年的發展時。該非收益比率中的基準運行率損失率是多少？

Yes. When we back out the reserving that we did, the strengthening of the reserves that we did, we're getting closer to the low 40s. I would say -- on the other hand, call it 43%. On the other hand, what I would say, as Keith articulated earlier, we do have inflation coming through. There will be a lag in terms of when the rates and inflation guards come through. So I wouldn't see that rate coming down so faster than that, faster than 43% or lower than 43% any time kind of in the next quarter. I think over time, we're going to see that improve and probably go closer to 40% as we go through the end of the year into next year, so forth. It's hard to predict because, obviously, it's hard to predict what inflation is going to do for the rest of the year. But essentially, as we're looking forward at our forecasting, that's what we're looking at.

是的。當我們退出我們所做的儲備，加強我們所做的儲備時，我們正接近 40 年代的低點。我會說——另一方面，稱之為 43%。另一方面，我想說的是，正如基思早些時候所說，我們確實經歷了通貨膨脹。利率和通脹守衛何時通過會有滯後。所以我不會看到這個比率下降得這麼快，在下一季度的任何時候都不會超過 43% 或低於 43%。我認為隨著時間的推移，我們會看到這種改善，並且可能會接近 40%，因為我們會從年底到明年，依此類推。這很難預測，因為很明顯，很難預測通脹在今年剩餘時間裡會發生什麼。但本質上，當我們期待我們的預測時，這就是我們所關注的。

And your final question comes from the line of Grace Carter from Bank of America.

您的最後一個問題來自美國銀行的 Grace Carter。

So I just had kind of a quick clarification question to start from one of the prior questions. I guess thinking about the original adjusted EBITDA growth targets for 2023 and 2024, I think average of 10%. And I mean just thinking about like the lower base, I guess, expected for 2022. I mean is -- should we just assume that the 2024 adjusted EBITDA levels will come out a little bit lower than maybe the original growth expectations implied? Or I guess, what is the likelihood that EBITDA growth over the next couple of years could accelerate sufficiently to get it kind of back in that original range?

所以我有一個快速澄清的問題，從前面的一個問題開始。我想考慮到 2023 年和 2024 年的原始調整後 EBITDA 增長目標，我認為平均為 10%。我的意思是，我猜想，2022 年預期的基數較低。我的意思是——我們是否應該假設 2024 年調整後的 EBITDA 水平會比原來暗示的增長預期略低一點？或者我猜想，未來幾年 EBITDA 增長能夠加速到足以讓它回到原來的範圍內的可能性有多大？

Yes. It's a great question. And I would say that my commitment and the goal that we have in terms of financial performance is to deliver the original Investor Day outlook for 2024. So what that implies is we've got to accelerate growth beyond the original 10% in '22 -- or '23 and '24 to make up for the shortfall in 2022, which is exactly your point. So that's certainly how we're thinking about it, Grace.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。我想說的是，我的承諾和我們在財務業績方面的目標是實現 2024 年最初的投資者日展望。這意味著我們必須在 22 年加速增長，超過最初的 10% - - 或 '23 和 '24 來彌補 2022 年的不足，這正是你的觀點。所以這當然是我們的想法，格蕾絲。

Obviously, there's a lot of moving parts and there's a lot of unknowns as we think about the economy and inflation. The good news is, I think the miss, as we look at 2022, is entirely driven by housing loss ratio from inflation, in particular from severity. And because of the features within the product and the ability to get rate that naturally resolves itself over time without a degradation in volume. So provided that, that rolls through as we expect and hope that it will, provided inflation calms down.

顯然，當我們考慮經濟和通貨膨脹時，有很多活動部件和很多未知數。好消息是，我認為，當我們展望 2022 年時，這一失誤完全是由通脹導致的住房損失率驅動的，尤其是嚴重程度。並且由於產品中的功能和獲得速率的能力，隨著時間的推移自然會自行解決，而不會降低體積。因此，只要通脹平靜下來，它就會像我們預期的那樣順利進行。

So our current thinking is inflation stays elevated through the end of the year begins moderating and moderates consistently through '23 and then sort of normalizes into '24. If that happens, we do feel good about our 2024 long-term commitment. And part of it is the strength of Global Lifestyle and in particular, investment income in Auto has been strong. The business has been generating significant growth. And then Connected Living and Mobile, in particular, has been on quite a role in the last handful of years.

因此，我們目前的想法是，通脹在年底前一直處於高位，並開始放緩，並在 23 年持續放緩，然後在 24 年恢復正常。如果發生這種情況，我們確實對 2024 年的長期承諾感到滿意。其中一部分是環球生活方式的實力，尤其是汽車的投資收益一直很強勁。該業務一直在產生顯著增長。尤其是互聯生活和移動設備，在過去幾年中發揮了相當大的作用。

And then, I guess, I just wanted to confirm that the -- kind of target combined ratio range that [Doug] mentioned before, I think 84% to 89% in the housing book still holds even with the exit of certain businesses? And I guess just kind of how should we think about the ability to stay within that range over the next few quarters as -- just given the pressure from inflation, versus still kind of waiting for the rate increases turn through?

然後，我想，我只是想確認一下 [Doug] 之前提到的那種目標綜合成本率範圍，我認為即使某些業務退出，房屋賬簿中的 84% 到 89% 仍然存在？而且我想我們應該如何考慮在接下來的幾個季度中保持在該範圍內的能力 - 只是考慮到通貨膨脹的壓力，而不是仍然在等待加息結束？

Yes. I would say that we're going to finish the year at least if we think about our forecast today and what's implied in that forecast when you unpack Housing. It may be a little above our range on a combined ratio basis, probably at the low end in terms of ROE. So pretty strong financial performance still overall based on those metrics. But let's say, a little bit worse than the range. We definitely think that 84% to 89% range over time is the right target for this business. And the exit of sharing economy, I'd say it wasn't a huge business, not a big driver, and it doesn't significantly change the way we think about combined targets.

是的。我會說，如果我們考慮一下今天的預測以及拆開房屋包裝時該預測所暗示的內容，我們至少會結束這一年。在綜合比率的基礎上，它可能略高於我們的範圍，就 ROE 而言可能處於低端。基於這些指標，整體財務表現仍然非常強勁。但是比方說，比範圍差一點。我們絕對認為，隨著時間的推移，84% 到 89% 的範圍是這項業務的正確目標。共享經濟的退出，我想說它不是一個巨大的業務，不是一個大的驅動力，它並沒有顯著改變我們對綜合目標的看法。

Well, thank you very much, everybody. Appreciate all the questions and the interest in the company. We had a solid first half of the year, led by the strength of the Global Lifestyle segment. We believe our business model remains well-positioned, as we've talked about, even in a challenging macro environment. In the meantime, please reach out to Suzanne Shepherd and Sean Moshier with any follow-up questions. Thanks, everybody. Have a great day.

嗯，非常感謝大家。感謝所有的問題和對公司的興趣。在全球生活方式板塊的強勢帶動下，我們上半年表現穩健。正如我們所談到的，我們相信我們的商業模式仍然處於有利地位，即使在充滿挑戰的宏觀環境中也是如此。同時，如有任何後續問題，請聯繫 Suzanne Shepherd 和 Sean Moshier。謝謝大家。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝你。今天的電話會議到此結束。請在這個時候斷開您的線路，並祝您有美好的一天。