Assurant Inc (AIZ) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome to Assurant's fourth quarter and full year 2024 conference call and webcast. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎參加 Assurant 2024 年第四季和全年電話會議和網路廣播。（操作員指令）

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to Sean Moshier, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may now begin.

現在我很高興將發言權交給投資人關係副總裁 Sean Moshier。現在您就可以開始了。

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results with you today. Joining me for Assurant's conference call are Keith Demmings, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Keith Meier, our Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝接線員，大家早安。我們期待今天與您討論我們的第四季和 2024 年全年業績。與我一起參加 Assurant 電話會議的還有我們的總裁兼執行長 Keith Demmings 和我們的財務長 Keith Meier。

Yesterday, after the market closed, we issued a news release announcing our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2024. The release and corresponding financial supplement are available on assurant.com. Also, on our website is a slide presentation for our webcast participants.

昨天，市場收盤後，我們發布了一份新聞稿，宣布了 2024 年第四季和全年業績。該新聞稿和相應的財務補充資料可在 assurant.com 上查閱。此外，我們的網站上也為網路廣播參與者提供幻燈片簡報。

Some of the statements made today are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements are based upon our historical performance and current expectations and subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these statements. Additional information regarding these factors can be found in the earnings release, presentation and financial supplement on our website as well as in our SEC reports.

今天發表的一些聲明具有前瞻性。前瞻性陳述是基於我們的歷史績效和當前預期，並受風險、不確定性和其他因素的影響，這些因素可能導致實際結果與這些陳述所預期的結果有重大差異。關於這些因素的更多資​​訊可以在我們網站上的收益報告、介紹和財務補充以及我們的 SEC 報告中找到。

During today's call, we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe are important in evaluating the company's performance. For more details on these measures, the most comparable GAAP measures and a reconciliation of the two, please refer to the news release and supporting materials.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將參考非公認會計準則財務指標，我們認為這些指標對於評估公司績效非常重要。有關這些指標、最具可比性的 GAAP 指標以及兩者的調節的更多詳細信息，請參閱新聞稿和支援資料。

We'll start today's call with remarks before moving into Q&A. I will now turn the call over to Keith Demmings.

在進入問答環節之前，我們將以評論開始今天的電話會議。現在我將電話轉給 Keith Demmings。

Thanks, Sean, and good morning, everyone. 2024 represented another strong year for Assurant. I'm incredibly proud of the performance of our teams across the company. whose commitment to delivering for our clients and customers enabled us to achieve 15% adjusted EBITDA growth and 19% adjusted earnings per share growth, both excluding reportable cats. Strategic investments in our people, client partnerships, technology and capabilities and targeted actions to drive improved performance across key areas of the business, position us to continue to outperform and deliver exceptional value through our products and services.

謝謝，肖恩，大家早安。 2024 年對 Assurant 來說又是強勁的一年。我對我們整個公司團隊的表現感到無比自豪。我們致力於為客戶服務，這使我們實現了 15% 的調整後 EBITDA 成長和 19% 的調整後每股盈餘成長（均不包括應報告的巨額損失）。我們透過對員工、客戶合作夥伴、技術和能力進行策略性投資，採取有針對性的行動來提高業務關鍵領域的績效，使我們能夠繼續透過我們的產品和服務表現出色並提供卓越的價值。

Our people are at the center of everything we do, and our performance is made possible by our world-class culture. Our culture is how we attract and retain incredible talent to deliver for our customers. We're extremely proud of the recognitions we've received, highlighting our commitment to innovation and sustainability, while supporting and empowering our employees. Our competitive advantage comes from the ongoing dedication of our global workforce and leadership team to drive new business through innovative solutions while elevating the customer -- deepening existing partnerships.

員工是我們一切工作的核心，我們的業績源自於我們世界級的文化。我們的文化決定了我們如何吸引和留住優秀人才來為我們的客戶提供服務。我們為所獲得的認可感到非常自豪，這突顯了我們對創新和永續發展的承諾，同時支持和授權我們的員工。我們的競爭優勢來自於全球員工和領導團隊的持續奉獻，他們致力於透過創新解決方案推動新業務，同時提升客戶—深化現有的合作夥伴關係。

In Global Lifestyle, we had an unprecedented year of client wins and renewals, particularly within Connected Living. We continue to invest in new innovative client programs and leading-edge technology including the incorporation of automation, robotics, and AI at our device care center outside of Nashville.

在全球生活方式領域，我們迎來了前所未有的客戶贏得和續約的一年，特別是在互聯生活領域。我們繼續投資新的創新客戶計畫和尖端技術，包括在納許維爾郊區的設備護理中心融入自動化、機器人和人工智慧。

We recently partnered to launch T-Mobile's Protection 360 Home Tech product. This new offering provides protection for an unlimited number of WiFi-enabled devices and electronics, while providing premium tech support to consumers. This critical new product represents another strategic growth vector and underscores the long-term opportunity presented by the convergence of broadband and mobile in the connected home. By prioritizing investments in programs and capabilities, we generated significant momentum and plan to execute on additional opportunities.

我們最近與 T-Mobile 合作推出了 Protection 360 Home Tech 產品。此項新產品可為無限數量的支援 WiFi 的設備和電子設備提供保護，同時為消費者提供優質的技術支援。這項重要的新產品代表了另一個策略成長方向，並強調了連網家庭中寬頻和行動融合所帶來的長期機會。透過優先對專案和能力進行投資，我們產生了巨大的發展勢頭，並計劃抓住更多機會。

In Global Automotive, we made progress in stabilizing earnings through targeted actions to address elevated claim costs in our vehicle service contract business and our guaranteed asset protection product. We continue to be optimistic about the long-term outlook for this business.

在全球汽車領域，我們透過採取有針對性的措施解決汽車服務合約業務和保證資產保護產品的索賠成本上升問題，在穩定盈利方面取得了進展。我們對該業務的長期前景仍然持樂觀態度。

Before discussing Global Housing, I want to first share that our thoughts are with everyone who is impacted by the events of the last few months, including the California wildfires. In these times, we have a critical role to play in our customers' journey. In Southern California, we're focused on making it quick and easy for policyholders to file claims online on the phone or in person at mobile claims centers, accelerating customer payments.

在討論全球住房之前，我想先表達我們的心意，我們與所有過去幾個月發生的事件（包括加州山火）影響的人們同在。在這些時候，我們在客戶的旅程中扮演著至關重要的角色。在南加州，我們致力於讓保單持有人能夠快速輕鬆地透過電話在線提交索賠或親自到行動索賠中心提交索賠，從而加快客戶付款。

We remain proud of our role in removing the risk of uninsured loss for lenders, investors and homeowners through our housing offerings. As we look at housing's results, we delivered sustained outperformance in 2024, benefiting from the strength of our homeowners and renters businesses, including the rollout of technology innovation to enhance our customer experience. Leveraging the segment's differentiated advantages and efficiency initiatives, we have more than doubled our adjusted EBITDA in the past two years, growing the business from just over $400 million in 2022 and to over $900 million in 2024, excluding cats.

我們透過提供住房幫助貸款人、投資者和房主消除未投保損失的風險，對此我們深感自豪。從房屋業務的業績來看，我們在 2024 年持續表現出色，這得益於房主和租戶業務的強勁成長，包括推出技術創新以提升客戶體驗。利用該部門的差異化優勢和效率舉措，我們在過去兩年中將調整後的 EBITDA 增加了一倍以上，業務從 2022 年的略高於 4 億美元增長到 2024 年的 9 億多美元（不包括貓業務）。

Even including cats, housing has outperformed the P&C industry. Over the past five years, we've achieved an average return on equity of over 22% and our increased scale and efficiency has driven a 10-year average combined ratio of 89%, compared to the broader P&C market of 95%. With clear outperformance and expected growth ahead, the business has the opportunity to be better appreciated from a valuation perspective.

即使包括貓在內，房屋市場的表現也優於財產和意外保險業。在過去五年中，我們實現了超過 22% 的平均股本回報率，隨著規模和效率的提升，我們的十年平均綜合比率達到 89%，而整體財產險和意外險市場則為 95%。憑藉明顯的優異表現和未來預期的成長，該業務有機會從估值角度獲得更好的升值。

2024 was a remarkable year of commercial success across Assurant, marked by significant client momentum as we enter 2025. Strong execution enabled us to capture new opportunities while solidifying and extending key client relationships. Across our global footprint, we had several key wins, including Australia's largest mobile carrier and two major financial institutions in the US. We renewed client relationships and reinforced our position as a leader and preferred partner throughout our businesses.

2024 年是 Assurant 商業成功的非凡一年，進入 2025 年，客戶發展勢頭強勁。強大的執行力使我們能夠抓住新的機遇，同時鞏固和擴大關鍵客戶關係。在我們的全球業務中，我們取得了幾個重要的勝利，其中包括澳洲最大的行動營運商和美國的兩家主要金融機構。我們重建了客戶關係，並鞏固了我們作為整個業務領域的領導者和首選合作夥伴的地位。

In our mobile business within Connected Living, we completed major renewals in 2024 that represent three of the top five largest mobile carriers in the US. More recently, we also secured a multiyear renewal with a large mobile carrier in Japan. We've now renewed our four largest mobile clients in the last year who represent over 40 million mobile devices protected, a testament to our ability to execute mobile protection programs across the globe.

在我們互聯生活領域的行動業務中，我們於 2024 年完成了重大續約，其中包括美國五大行動電信商中的三家。最近，我們也與日本一家大型行動電信商達成了多年的續約協議。去年，我們已與四大行動客戶續簽了協議，保護了超過 4,000 萬台行動設備，證明了我們在全球實施行動保護計畫的能力。

Within housing, we renewed 10 lender-placed clients, representing over 17 million loans tracked. And in renters, we completed renewals of two top 10 property management companies as we continue the rollout of key technology-enabled services like Cover360 and Assurant TechPro. These help increase policy attachment while enhancing the experience of our partners and renters.

在房屋領域，我們續簽了 10 位貸款方客戶，追蹤的貸款超過 1,700 萬筆。在租戶方面，我們完成了與兩家十大物業管理公司的續約，同時我們繼續推出 Cover360 和 Assurant TechPro 等關鍵技術支援的服務。這些有助於增加政策附件，同時增強我們的合作夥伴和租戶的體驗。

Ultimately, the continuing demand for our offerings and solutions, combined with our strong competitive edge, creates commercial momentum that will extend into 2025 and beyond. We believe in the power of our unique business-to-business to consumer or B2B2C business model. At our core, we're a premier global protection company that partners with the world's leading brands to safeguard and service connected devices, homes and automobiles, utilizing data-driven technology solutions to provide exceptional customer experiences.

最終，對我們的產品和解決方案的持續需求，加上我們強大的競爭優勢，創造了將延續到 2025 年及以後的商業動力。我們相信我們獨特的企業對企業對消費者或B2B2C商業模式的力量。我們的核心是一家全球頂尖的保護公司，與世界領先的品牌合作，保護和服務連網設備、家庭和汽車，利用數據驅動的技術解決方案提供卓越的客戶體驗。

The common thread across our entire enterprise is our powerful B2B2C distribution strategy in both lifestyle and housing, where we have strong leadership positions in attractive markets. Through our differentiated distribution, strong public Fortune 500 company financials and unwavering emphasis on client transparency, we create deep partnerships with leading brands across the world.

我們整個企業的共同點是我們在生活方式和住房領域強大的 B2B2C 分銷策略，我們在有吸引力的市場中擁有強大的領導地位。透過我們差異化的分銷、強大的財富 500 強公司財務狀況以及對客戶透明度的堅定重視，我們與世界各地的領先品牌建立了深厚的合作夥伴關係。

In addition, our commitment to continuously enhance customer experience through customized solutions that wrap around our protection products is built on decades of investment and ongoing innovation. This allows us to deeply integrate our technology and platforms with clients, supporting long-tenured partnerships and exceptional customer experiences. Since 2019, we've increased adjusted EBITDA by over $630 million or a 12% compounded annual growth rate while growing adjusted EPS by over $11 per share or an 18% compounded annual growth rate, both excluding catastrophes.

此外，我們致力於透過圍繞我們的保護產品的客製化解決方案不斷提升客戶體驗，這是基於數十年的投資和持續創新而建立的。這使我們能夠與客戶深度整合我們的技術和平台，支援長期合作夥伴關係和卓越的客戶體驗。自 2019 年以來，我們的調整後 EBITDA 增加了 6.3 億美元以上，年複合成長率為 12%，同時調整後每股收益增加了 11 美元以上，年複合成長率為 18%（均不包括災難因素）。

As we look at our performance versus the broader P&C industry, we've continued to outperform the S&P 1500 P&C index median, both excluding and including cats, when comparing across adjusted earnings and EPS growth. Our compelling track record of outperformance includes eight consecutive years of profitable growth, demonstrating resiliency through various macroeconomic environments.

當我們將我們的表現與整個財產和意外保險行業進行比較時，我們發現，在比較調整後的收益和每股收益增長時，我們的表現繼續優於標準普爾 1500 財產和意外保險指數中位數（包括和不包括巨災保險）。我們出色的業績記錄包括連續八年的獲利成長，展現了我們適應各種宏觀經濟環境的韌性。

In addition, our portfolio benefits from earnings and capital diversification across geographies and business lines, positioning us to continue to invest in and achieve future growth. We believe we'll remain an attractive investment with a compelling path ahead, and we believe we should be valued at a premium to the S&P 1500 P&C index media.

此外，我們的投資組合受益於跨地域和業務線的收益和資本多樣化，使我們能夠繼續投資並實現未來成長。我們相信，我們仍將是一項具有吸引力的投資，未來發展前景令人信服，我們相信我們的估值應該高於標準普爾 1500 財產和意外傷害指數媒體。

Before turning it over to Keith Meyer to share additional insights on our results and review business trends, I want to highlight our strong momentum heading into 2025 and how we plan to deliver future growth. First, will focus on executing, optimizing and scaling significant new partnerships and program launches throughout lifestyle and housing, where we invested last year. Overall, we believe our 2024 investments should be fully earned back through 2025 with an attractive one-year payback.

在請 Keith Meyer 分享有關我們的業績的更多見解並回顧業務趨勢之前，我想強調一下我們邁向 2025 年的強勁勢頭以及我們計劃如何實現未來成長。首先，將專注於執行、優化和擴大我們去年投資的生活方式和住房領域的重要新合作夥伴關係和專案發布。整體而言，我們相信我們 2024 年的投資應該會在 2025 年完全收回，並獲得頗具吸引力的一年回報。

Next, we'll support incremental investments for new launches in our pipeline and accelerate emerging growth opportunities. In addition to our connected home product launch, we have new opportunities with several clients particularly in global lifestyle, and we look forward to sharing more details over the coming quarters.

接下來，我們將支持對新產品的增量投資，並加速新興的成長機會。除了推出連網家居產品外，我們還與多個客戶建立了新的合作關係，特別是在全球生活方式領域，我們期待在未來幾季分享更多細節。

And finally, we'll drive financial performance and operational excellence. We believe we're well positioned to meet our 2025 objectives given the commercial momentum we have within Connected Living, long-term tailwinds in Global Auto and sustained outperformance in Global Housing.

最後，我們將推動財務績效和卓越營運。我們相信，鑑於我們在互聯生活領域的商業發展勢頭、全球汽車領域的長期順風以及全球住房領域的持續優異表現，我們完全有能力實現 2025 年的目標。

Overall, our ability to deliver for our clients, drive efficiencies across our operations and focus on data-driven technology solutions should enhance our position as a leader in the businesses that we operate and extend our compelling track record of financial performance.

總體而言，我們為客戶提供服務、提高營運效率以及專注於數據驅動的技術解決方案的能力應該會增強我們在所營運業務中的領先地位，並延續我們令人信服的財務業績記錄。

I'll now turn it over to Keith.

現在我將把它交給 Keith。

Thanks, Keith, and good morning, everyone. I'm proud of what we achieved in 2024 and including the financial results delivered by our incredibly strong team. For the year, we increased adjusted EBITDA by 15% to over $1.5 billion, while growing adjusted earnings per share to over $20, both excluding cats. We have continued our long-term track record of growing earnings consistently demonstrating the power of Assurant. Our performance was highlighted by another exceptional year in Global Housing, where we delivered double-digit earnings growth overall for the second consecutive year.

謝謝，基思，大家早安。我為我們在 2024 年所取得的成就感到自豪，包括我們強大的團隊所取得的財務表現。今年，我們的調整後 EBITDA 成長了 15%，達到 15 億美元以上，同時調整後的每股盈餘成長了 20 美元以上（均不包括貓）。我們持續保持長期獲利成長的良好記錄，持續展現了 Assurant 的實力。我們的業績亮點是全球住房業務又取得了出色的成績，連續第二年實現了兩位數的整體獲利成長。

Within Global Lifestyle, Connected Living grew 9%, excluding $25 million of investments and $12 million of unfavorable foreign exchange. More importantly, we set a solid foundation for growth as we enter 2025. In Global Auto, targeted actions in our vehicle service contract and GAP products stabilized earnings in the second half of 2024 and and we are excited about the trajectory of the business as we move into 2025.

在全球生活方式中，互聯生活成長了 9%，不包括 2,500 萬美元的投資和 1,200 萬美元的不利外匯影響。更重要的是，我們為進入2025年的成長奠定了堅實的基礎。在全球汽車領域，我們針對汽車服務合約和 GAP 產品採取的針對性措施穩定了 2024 年下半年的收益，我們對 2025 年業務的發展軌跡感到興奮。

I'll begin by highlighting key trends we saw in the fourth quarter. From there, I'll walk through our 2025 outlook as we look to deliver our ninth consecutive year of profitable growth. Beginning with our fourth quarter enterprise results, adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share both increased 13%, excluding cats, led by Global Housing.

首先，我將重點介紹我們在第四季度看到的主要趨勢。從這裡開始，我將介紹我們 2025 年的展望，期待連續第九年的獲利成長。從我們第四季的企業業績開始，調整後的 EBITDA 和每股盈餘均成長了 13%，不包括巨災因素，其中 Global Housing 成長最為顯著。

Looking at capital. Global Lifestyle and Global Housing continued to generate significant cash flow as we upstream nearly $250 million from our segments in the fourth quarter, and over $800 million for the full year. We returned $161 million of that cash to our shareholders in the fourth quarter, which puts our total capital return to shareholders for the year in excess of $450 million, including $300 million of share repurchases. Our buyback level was at the top end of our expectations for the year. At the same time, we ended the year in a strong capital position with $673 million of liquidity at the holding company.

看資本。全球生活方式和全球住房持續產生大量現金流，第四季我們從各部門獲利近 2.5 億美元，全年獲利超過 8 億美元。我們在第四季向股東返還了 1.61 億美元現金，這使得我們全年向股東返還的總資本超過 4.5 億美元，其中包括 3 億美元的股票回購。我們的回購水準達到了今年預期的最高水準。同時，我們在年底時資本狀況強勁，控股公司的流動資金達到 6.73 億美元。

This past November, we increased our common stock dividend by 11%. The increase represented the 20th consecutive year we have raised our dividend since our IPO. In addition, we were just added to the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index earlier this month. We are incredibly proud of this achievement and expect our strong capital returns to continue as part of our balanced capital deployment framework.

去年 11 月，我們將普通股股利提高了 11%。這是我們自首次公開募股以來連續第20年提高股利。此外，本月初我們剛被納入標準普爾高收益股息貴族指數。我們對這項成就感到無比自豪，並預期強勁的資本回報將繼續成為我們平衡資本配置框架的一部分。

Turning to our segment results, beginning with Global Lifestyle. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was down 6% compared to last year or 5% on a constant currency basis. In Connected Living, earnings were roughly flat on a constant currency basis. Fourth quarter results included $4 million of incremental investments related to new capabilities and client partnerships that are expected to drive future growth.

談談我們的分部業績，首先從全​​球生活方式開始。第四季調整後的 EBITDA 較去年同期下降 6%，以固定匯率計算下降 5%。在互聯生活方面，以固定匯率計算的收益大致持平。第四季的業績包括 400 萬美元的增量投資，與新功能和客戶合作夥伴關係有關，預計將推動未來成長。

Investments in 2024 are already paying off as earnings from recently launched clients, including card benefits within our Financial Services business, have begun to contribute to Connected Living's fourth quarter performance. As Keith mentioned, we are now focused on scaling these partnerships for growth. These contributions were offset by lower US trade-in programs, Year-over-year, training results were impacted by business mix and lower volumes. However, we did see sequential trading growth as expected.

2024 年的投資已開始獲得回報，因為來自新推出的客戶（包括我們金融服務業務內的卡片優惠）的收益已開始為 Connected Living 第四季度的業績做出貢獻。正如 Keith 所提到的，我們現在專注於擴大這些合作夥伴關係以實現成長。這些貢獻被美國以舊換新計畫的減少所抵消，與去年同期相比，培訓結果受到業務組合和數量下降的影響。然而，我們確實看到了預期的連續交易成長。

Turning to Global Auto. In the quarter, results were down 11% compared to last year. The year-over-year decline was largely driven by lower real estate joint venture partnership income of $13.8 million. Fourth quarter 2023 included a more significant real estate joint venture gain compared to a smaller gain this year. Excluding this, results in Global Auto were largely flat as higher investment income was partially offset by elevated loss experience in both our GAAP product and our vehicle service contract business compared to last year.

轉向全球汽車。本季業績較去年同期下降 11%。年比下降主要是由於房地產合資夥伴收入下降 1,380 萬美元。與今年較小的收益相比，2023 年第四季的房地產合資收益更為顯著。除此之外，全球汽車業務的業績基本上持平，因為與去年相比，更高的投資收益被我們 GAAP 產品和汽車服務合約業務的虧損經驗增加所部分抵消。

Importantly, we continue to see claims experience remain stable from last quarter. As previously implemented program changes and rate increases continue to earn through our book, leading to a sequential improvement in earnings. In terms of revenue, our net earned premiums, fees and other income for Global Lifestyle grew 2% or approximately 6% on a constant currency basis, and excluding $85 million of favorable non-run rate premium adjustments in Global Automotive in fourth quarter 2023.

重要的是，我們看到索賠經驗與上一季相比保持穩定。由於先前實施的計劃變更和費率上調繼續透過我們的帳簿產生收益，從而導致收益連續改善。在收入方面，我們的全球生活險淨賺保費、費用和其他收入增長了 2% 或按固定匯率計算增長了約 6%，並且不包括 2023 年第四季度全球汽車險 8500 萬美元的優惠非運行率保費調整。

Moving to Global Housing. Fourth quarter results were strong. building on an exceptional performance for the year. Adjusted EBITDA was $225 million, which included $50 million of cat losses, largely from Hurricane Milton. Excluding cats, adjusted EBITDA increased 32%. In the quarter, we saw a continuation of robust policy growth in homeowners from higher placement rates given voluntary insurance market pressure. As these additional policies are placed, we benefit from the significant expense leverage we have driven in this business from our technology investments.

遷往全球住房。第四季業績強勁。在今年取得優異成績的基礎上再接再厲。調整後的 EBITDA 為 2.25 億美元，其中包括 5,000 萬美元的災難損失，主要來自颶風米爾頓。除貓之外，調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 32%。在本季度，由於自願保險市場壓力，我們看到房屋保險率持續保持強勁成長。隨著這些附加政策的實施，我們將受益於透過技術投資在該業務中推動的顯著費用槓桿。

Earnings growth in the quarter also included impacts from favorable non-catastrophe losses due to lower frequency as well as lower catastrophe reinsurance costs. While we had favorable prior period reserve development of $38 million in the quarter, it was relatively consistent with fourth quarter 2023 and did not impact year-over-year growth trends. Within our renters business, we continue to benefit from strong results in our PMC channel, which achieved its tenth consecutive quarter of double-digit gross written premium growth.

本季獲利成長還包括由於頻率降低而導致的非災難損失的有利影響以及災難再保險成本的降低。雖然本季我們的前期儲備金發展情況良好，達到 3,800 萬美元，但這與 2023 年第四季相對一致，並沒有影響同比成長趨勢。在我們的租賃業務中，我們繼續受益於 PMC 通路的強勁業績，連續第十個季度實現了兩位數的毛承保保費成長。

Now, let's discuss our outlook for 2025. We expect full year adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share to increase modestly, both excluding cats. Overcoming $107 million of favorable prior year reserve development in housing's 2024 results. Excluding the significant favorable PYD in 2024, strong underlying growth trends are expected to deliver high single-digit earnings and EPS growth, both excluding cats. Our outlook includes our forward view of foreign exchange rates and interest rates but does not factor in potential impacts from tariffs, including those related to claims costs or consumer demand.

現在，讓我們討論一下對 2025 年的展望。我們預計全年調整後的 EBITDA 和每股盈餘將小幅成長（均不包括巨災因素）。住房 2024 年業績突破前一年 1.07 億美元的有利儲備發展水準。除 2024 年顯著有利的 PYD 外，強勁的潛在成長趨勢預計將帶來高個位數的收益和 EPS 成長（均不包括巨災因素）。我們的展望包括對外匯匯率和利率的前瞻性看法，但沒有考慮關稅的潛在影響，包括與索賠成本或消費者需求相關的影響。

While tariffs could potentially affect claims costs, we believe we are well positioned to react quickly to address potential impacts. Over time, our business model has had a proven ability to deliver in the face of various economic environments and cycles. Looking at our segments. For 2025, we expect global lifestyle growth driven by higher contributions from Connected Living and Global Automotive. Growth is expected to be partially offset by an unfavorable impact from foreign exchange rates as well as investments in new partnerships and programs in 2025.

雖然關稅可能會影響索賠成本，但我們相信我們有能力迅速做出反應，以應對潛在影響。隨著時間的推移，我們的商業模式已被證明能夠在各種經濟環境和週期中發揮作用。看看我們的細分市場。到 2025 年，我們預計全球生活方式的成長將受到互聯生活和全球汽車的更大貢獻的推動。預計外匯匯率的不利影響以及 2025 年對新合作夥伴關係和新項目的投資將部分抵消這一成長。

In mind, we expect foreign exchange and incremental investments to mute growth by a few percentage points. Turning to Global Housing. We expect EBITDA, excluding cats, to decline modestly. Given the $107 million of favorable prior year reserve development seen in 2024. Excluding the impact of prior year development in 2024, on an underlying basis, we expect strong global housing EBITDA growth in 2025. As a reminder, our 2025 outlook does not contemplate additional prior year development. Underlying growth is expected to be driven by our homeowners business, which will continue to benefit from lender-placed policy growth and expense leverage.

請記住，我們預期外匯和增量投資將使經濟成長放緩幾個百分點。轉向全球住房。我們預計，不包括貓在內的 EBITDA 將小幅下降。鑑於 2024 年上年儲備金的有利發展情況，為 1.07 億美元。排除 2024 年上一年發展的影響，從根本上講，我們預計 2025 年全球住房 EBITDA 將強勁成長。提醒一下，我們的 2025 年展望並未考慮前幾年的額外發展。預計基本成長將由我們的房主業務推動，該業務將繼續受益於貸款方制定的保單成長和費用槓桿。

For the recent wildfires in California, we remain focused on Settling claims and helping our policyholders navigate through the event. Reportable catastrophes from the California wildfires are expected to approach or slightly exceed our per event catastrophe reinsurance program retention of $150 million. We'll provide a further update in May as we learn more and continue to settle claims. In terms of other impacts to 2025, we are working through the placement of our catastrophe reinsurance program, which will be effective on April 1. We expect a similar structure to our 2024 program, maintaining robust coverage at both the top and bottom end of our program.

對於最近加州發生的山火，我們仍然專注於解決索賠並幫助我們的保單持有人渡過難關。預計加州野火造成的可報告災難將接近或略微超過我們每次災難再保險計劃的保留金額 1.5 億美元。隨著我們了解更多並繼續解決索賠，我們將在五月提供進一步的更新。就 2025 年的其他影響而言，我們正在實施巨災再保險計劃，該計劃將於 4 月 1 日生效。我們期望其結構與我們的 2024 年計劃類似，在計劃的頂端和底端都保持強大的覆蓋範圍。

As the program terms are finalized, we will also get greater insights into our expected cat load for the year. We'll provide an update in May on expectations, which will be inclusive of our California wildfire estimates. Our capital objectives for 2025 are consistent with prior years as we focus on maintaining balance and flexibility to support new business growth while returning excess capital to shareholders.

隨著計畫條款的最終確定，我們也將對今年的預期載重量有更深入的了解。我們將在五月提供預期更新，其中將包括我們對加州野火的估計。我們 2025 年的資本目標與前幾年一致，因為我們專注於保持平衡和靈活性以支持新業務成長，同時向股東返還多餘的資本。

From a share repurchase perspective, our expected range for 2025 is between $200 million to $300 million, subject to M&A as well as market and other conditions. This range accounts for our estimated impact from the California wildfires. Of course, we will continue to make sound capital allocation decisions over the course of the year as our track record has shown. Through February 7, we've repurchased $24 million of shares. We expect buybacks to be more consistent throughout the year compared to back-end weighted in prior years, driven by our confidence in our strong capital position and cash flow generation.

從股票回購的角度來看，我們預計 2025 年的回購範圍將在 2 億至 3 億美元之間，具體取決於併購以及市場和其他條件。這個範圍解釋了我們估計的加州野火造成的影響。當然，正如我們的業績記錄所表明的那樣，我們將在今年繼續做出合理的資本配置決策。截至 2 月 7 日，我們已經回購了價值 2,400 萬美元的股票。我們預計，與前幾年的後端加權相比，今年全年的回購將更加穩定，這得益於我們對強勁的資本狀況和現金流創造的信心。

And finally, speaking of cash flow generation, we believe Assurant is differentiated compared to the broader P&C industry, given our unique lifestyle and housing portfolio, which creates strong capital efficiencies and the ability to reinvest for growth. In 2025, we expect to continue to generate meaningful cash flows aligned with our recent performance. Overall, we are proud of our consistent outperformance and feel well positioned to continue our growth trajectory in 2025.

最後，談到現金流產生，我們認為，鑑於我們獨特的生活方式和住房組合，Assurant 與更廣泛的 P&C 行業相比具有差異化，這創造了強大的資本效率和再投資增長的能力。2025 年，我們預計將繼續產生與近期業績相符的有意義的現金流。總體而言，我們為公司一貫的優異表現感到自豪，並有信心在 2025 年繼續保持成長勢頭。

With that, operator, please open the call for questions.

接線員，請打開電話回答問題。

(Operator Instructions) Mark Hughes, Truist.

（操作員指示）馬克·休斯，Truist。

Good morning, Keith. On the homeowners business, the placement rate has been looking quite good. Can you talk about the -- what is a voluntary versus the lender placed? And do you still see the same dislocation in those markets that's been pushing the voluntary, presumably, how much momentum does that give you for 2025?

早安，基斯。對於房主業務來說，安置率一直看起來相當不錯。能談談自願貸款與貸款人貸款的差異嗎？您是否仍看到這些市場中存在著同樣的混亂，從而推動了自願性的轉變？

Yes. Great question, and thanks for that. So I would say a couple of things. We've definitely seen really strong PIF growth on lender place throughout the year. That trend continues certainly in the fourth quarter. Year-over-year, we're up 16% in terms of policies in force. And if I simplified that, I'd probably say a third of that is client growth and loan movement within clients. A third of that is California due to the hardening market and then the other third is the rest of the country growth from a similar dynamic.

是的。這個問題問得好，謝謝。因此我想說幾件事。我們確實看到全年貸款機構的 PIF 成長非常強勁。這一趨勢在第四季度肯定會持續。與去年同期相比，我們有效保單數量增加了 16%。如果我簡化這一點，我可能會說其中三分之一是客戶成長和客戶內部的貸款流動。其中三分之一是由於市場的強勁成長而來自加州，另外三分之一是由於類似的動態而來自該國其他地區的成長。

So we've definitely still seen hard insurance markets, creating opportunity for policy growth on our book of business. And we've seen a lot of diversification as well across geographies. So I think that likely continues. Certainly, the trend was pretty consistent in fourth quarter as we saw for the first three quarters. So expect some continued growth there, probably not at the same level that we've seen, but certainly feel good about the momentum overall in housing.

因此，我們確實仍然看到了艱難的保險市場，這為我們的業務保單成長創造了機會。我們也看到不同地區的多元趨勢。所以我認為這種情況可能會持續下去。當然，正如我們在前三個季度看到的那樣，第四季度的趨勢相當一致。因此，預計那裡將繼續增長，可能不是達到我們所看到的水平，但對住房市場整體的發展勢頭肯定感到樂觀。

Then in Global Lifestyle, how do we think about the top line growth? Just kind of broadly, you've given good guidance on EBITDA. You've given some thoughts about customer growth, that sort of thing, but how do we think about top line growth maybe in 2025 or just more broadly in lifestyle?

那麼在全球生活方式方面，我們如何看待營收成長？總體而言，您對 EBITDA 給出了很好的指導。您已經給了一些關於客戶成長之類的想法，但我們如何看待 2025 年或更廣泛的生活方式的營收成長？

Yes. I mean if I think about lifestyle, the first thing I would highlight, and we covered it in the prepared remarks, but we are particularly excited on the Connected Living side, securing our mobile clients is really, really important and so fundamental to the business long term. It then allows us to focus more energy with our partners to drive growth, to launch new products, to optimize customer experience. There's a lot of energy around making sure we're optimizing all the buy flows and touch points to serve consumers. So I think that will be a catalyst for continued momentum certainly, on the Connected Living business, we saw Chase come on in the fourth quarter.

是的。我的意思是，如果我考慮生活方式，我首先要強調的是，我們在準備好的評論中已經涵蓋了它，但我們對互聯生活方面特別興奮，保護我們的行動客戶真的非常重要，對長期業務至關重要。這樣我們就可以集中更多精力與合作夥伴一起推動成長、推出新產品、優化客戶體驗。我們投入了大量精力來確保優化所有購買流程和接觸點來為消費者提供服務。因此，我認為這肯定會成為聯網生活業務持續發展勢頭的催化劑，我們看到大通在第四季度取得了進展。

That's going to obviously drive financial services growth throughout the year. So I do think we're well positioned we've had pretty consistent Lifestyle growth in terms of the top line for the last few years. I think that growth continues as we move forward. And then in auto, it's about the loss recovery and our ability to continue to see that mature and feel really good about how the second half of the year stabilized, obviously, more road to go, but feel like we're well positioned. But Keith, anything else?

這顯然將推動全年金融服務的成長。因此，我確實認為我們處於有利地位，過去幾年來，我們的生活方式業務在營收方面一直保持著相當穩定的成長。我認為，隨著我們不斷前進，這種成長將會繼續下去。然後在汽車領域，這關乎損失的恢復，以及我們繼續看到其成熟的能力，並對下半年的穩定感到非常滿意，顯然，還有更多的路要走，但感覺我們處於有利位置。但是基思，還有其他嗎？

No, I think it really speaks to the momentum that we have and the opportunities that we have as we look forward to '25. We've talked about making some investments in '24, and we certainly expect to do that again in 2025. It's because of the momentum we've got in our markets, especially in Connected Living. So we certainly look forward to sharing more of those updates as we go through the year.

不，我認為這確實體現了我們在展望25年時所擁有的動力和機會。我們已經討論過在2024年進行一些投資，我們當然希望在2025年再次這樣做。這是因為我們在市場上，特別是在互聯生活領域中擁有良好的發展動能。因此，我們當然期待在今年分享更多更新內容。

And one final quick one. The ForEx headwind for 2025, I think you said with ForEx and investments a few percentage points. How about ForEx specifically?

最後一個簡短的。我認為您說過 2025 年外匯市場的逆風會與外匯和投資市場相差幾個百分點。ForEx 的具體情況如何？

Yes. I think we'd probably say foreign exchange, a couple of points of headwind. In terms of the investments, probably 1 to 2 points. If you think about '24, just to kind of create context, we had $25 million of incremental investments. Roughly $10 million of that was Depot automation that we've talked about and the other $15 million or so, roughly two-thirds was client-related launches.

是的。我想我們可能會說外匯，有幾個不利因素。就投資方面來說，大概是1到2點。如果您想想 24 年，只是為了創建背景，我們有 2500 萬美元的增量投資。其中大約 1000 萬美元是我們談到的 Depot 自動化，另外 1500 萬美元左右，大約三分之二是與客戶相關的發布。

So as we look at '25, probably somewhere maybe approaching a similar level of investment in clients maybe slightly below. So we've got given the 1% to 2% headwind relative to lifestyle overall. But we do have some good things in the hopper with clients, new clients, existing clients, new product launches. And we're certainly excited to update as we go through the year.

因此，當我們展望25年時，可能在某個地方，對客戶的投資可能會接近類似的水平，也可能略低一些。因此，我們給出了相對於整體生活方式的 1% 到 2% 的阻力。但我們在客戶、新客戶、現有客戶和新產品發布方面確實有一些好事情要做。我們當然很高興能夠在新的一年裡不斷更新。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Jeff Schmitt.

傑夫施密特。

Can you hear me?

你聽得到我嗎？

Perfectly.

完美。

Hi. Good morning. So the placement rate in housing, just one more question on that. Are you seeing a lot of insurers fleet, California after the fires. So could we maybe see that kind of jump in Q1?

你好。早安.那麼住房安置率是多少，我還有一個問題。加州大火之後，你是否看到很多保險公司的車隊？那麼我們可能在第一季看到這種成長嗎？

Yes. And I think overall for California, Jeff, there was a moratorium put on in California so that the insurers would not be leaving, the wildfires just taking place. So we think that will temper some of that for a while. And then I'm sure that will open back up later. But for right now, in the short term, I would say we don't expect a lot of exits from the state.

是的。傑夫，我認為總體而言，對於加州來說，加州實施了暫停令，以便保險公司不會離開，而山火只是發生。因此我們認為這會在一段時間內緩和一些這種情況。我相信稍後它還會再次開放。但就目前而言，從短期來看，我認為我們預計不會有大量政府退出。

Okay. And then in Global Auto, are you still seeing elevated losses in that GAAP book? And how much did that contribute to the loss ratio in the quarter?

好的。那麼在全球汽車領域，您是否仍看到 GAAP 帳簿上的虧損增加？這對本季的損失率有何影響？

Yes. So from a GAAP perspective, Jeff, we've seen it stabilize. From the third quarter to the fourth quarter, it was flat to maybe slightly better. So I think from that perspective, I think that also points to why we feel good about where we're going for 2025, and that we've signaled that we see growth in auto as we go through this year.

是的。因此，傑夫，從 GAAP 的角度來看，我們已經看到它趨於穩定。從第三季到第四季度，情況持平甚至略有改善。因此，我認為從這個角度來看，這也表明了為什麼我們對 2025 年的發展方向感到樂觀，我們已經表明，今年我們將看到汽車行業的成長。

Yes. And maybe just one add-on comment as we think about GAAP and we've talked about this, when we look at the written business we expect to put on in '25 will largely be off of most -- not quite all, but close to all of the risks that we write. So that will definitely change that dynamic longer term and create more stability in our approach.

是的。當我們考慮 GAAP 並且討論過這個問題時，也許只需要補充一條評論，當我們查看預計在 25 年開展的書面業務時，這將在很大程度上擺脫大多數（不是全部，但幾乎是所有）我們所承擔的風險。所以從長遠來看，這肯定會改變這種動態，並使我們的方法更加穩定。

Okay. Any sense on the size of that impact that we could have just in the quarter or the last two quarters really?

好的。我們能真正感覺到，在本季或最後兩季，這種影響到底有多大嗎？

I would say just maybe $1 million or $2 million better for this quarter, Jeff, but pretty stable.

傑夫，我想說本季的收入可能只會增加 100 萬或 200 萬美元，但相當穩定。

Okay. All right. Thanks.

好的。好的。謝謝。

Tommy McJoynt, KBW.

湯米·麥喬因特，KBW。

Good morning. Tommy.

早安.湯米。

Hey. Good morning. Yeah, another question on the investment spend. You called out the $25 million last year. And I just want to understand your comments about the payback period is effectively being one year. So are you saying that those new programs are generating $25 million of positive EBITDA in 2025 to fully out that really $25 million drag in '24. Is that -- am I understanding that right?

嘿。早安.是的，還有一個關於投資支出的問題。去年您宣布了 2500 萬美元。我只是想了解您關於投資回收期實際上是一年的評論。所以你是說，這些新項目將在 2025 年產生 2500 萬美元的正 EBITDA，從而完全抵消 2024 年真正的 2500 萬美元的拖累。是的──我的理解對嗎？

Perfectly. That's exactly what we're saying.

完美。這正是我們要說的。

Okay. And the new investment spend for 2025, what types of programs are those? And are those related to the one last year, I think, related to Chase and travel benefits? Or what can you say about the new plans?

好的。2025 年的新投資支出計畫是什麼類型的？我認為這些是否與去年的有關，與大通和旅行福利有關？或者您對新計劃有什麼看法？

Yes. I would say entirely separate from the clients that we signaled last year. And obviously, we had T-Mobile also roll Synthon in the fourth quarter that we would have been investing in last year as well. So we're typically telling you about the things sort of after they become public in the market.

是的。我想說的是，這與我們去年向客戶發出的信號完全不同。顯然，T-Mobile 在第四季度也推出了 Synthon，而我們去年也對此進行了投資。因此，我們通常會在事情在市場上公開之後告訴您。

But if we look at the potential for kind of 1 to 2 points of headwind relative to those investments in '25, it will be net new things that we haven't discussed yet. With marquee brands and clients that I think you would very much recognize. So we're super excited.

但如果我們看一下相對於 25 年的投資而言可能出現的 1 到 2 個點的逆風，那將是我們尚未討論過的淨新事物。我想您一定非常熟悉這些知名品牌和客戶。因此我們非常興奮。

We don't want to get in front of ourselves. There's a lot of ongoing contracting with clients, launch plans, technology investment. So there's always a lot in the works, but we have a really, really strong pipeline in '25. And I'd say it's similar types of things with different clients, obviously in '25.

我們不想成為別人的阻礙。我們正在與客戶簽訂大量合同，制定發布計劃，進行技術投資。因此，總是有很多工作要做，但我們在 25 年擁有非常非常強大的管道。我想說的是，不同的客戶也會遇到類似的事情，顯然是在 25 年。

Yes. And I think, Tom, one thing you can expect is just like we did last year, as we make those investments through 2025, we'll be very transparent about what they were and the benefits in the clients that came as a result. So we'll be sharing that with you and connecting that to the investments as we go through the year.

是的。湯姆，我認為，你可以期待的一件事就是，就像我們去年所做的那樣，當我們在 2025 年進行這些投資時，我們將非常透明地說明這些投資是什麼以及客戶因此獲得的好處。因此，我們將與您分享這一點，並將其與我們全年的投資聯繫起來。

Okay. Got it. And then switching over to the Housing side. with the higher placement rates and seemingly ever rising average matured value, that segment continues to generate a lot of scale. Does that increase scale? And I guess, just combined with really strong underlying performance on the underwriting side, does that change your outlook for the combined ratio in that segment?

好的。知道了。然後切換到住房方面。隨著安置率的提高和平均成熟價值的不斷上升，該部分將繼續產生巨大的規模。這會增加規模嗎？我想，結合核保方面非常強勁的潛在表現，這會改變您對該領域綜合比率的展望嗎？

Yes. I think what I would say, if we look at '25, even with the California fires, and we size that at slightly less than or slightly more than $150 million of overall losses. We think we're still going to be in that mid-80s combined for the full year of '25 and we think that's a really, really strong result. Obviously, the dynamics changed. So we'll see longer term what we think the right long-term target is for that. But feel really good. And again, we'll deliver north of 20% ROEs in that business as well.

是的。我想說的是，如果我們看看 25 年，即使加州發生了火災，我們估計總損失也略低於或略高於 1.5 億美元。我們認為，2025年全年我們的總收入仍將維持在85%左右，這是一個非常非常強勁的結果。顯然，情況發生了變化。因此，我們將從更長遠的角度來看待我們認為正確的長期目標是什麼。但感覺確實很好。而且，我們在該業務中的 ROE 也將超過 20%。

And to your point, not only have we seen a lot of growth, but we've created a lot of expense leverage, invested a lot in technology and that's helped us deliver pretty strong outperformance. So we'll kind of reassess as we go forward. But if we look at '25, we think rates will be relatively neutral to us this year. We're not seeing big increases certainly in rate, but that will ebb and flow, and we'll monitor that as we go.

正如您所說，我們不僅看到了很大的成長，而且我們還創造了許多費用槓桿，在技術上投入了大量資金，這幫助我們實現了相當強勁的業績。因此，我們會在前進的過程中重新評估。但如果我們看一下25年，我們認為今年的利率對我們來說將相對中性。當然，我們不會看到利率大幅上漲，但利率會有起伏，我們會隨時監控。

Great. Thanks, Keith.

偉大的。謝謝，基斯。

(Operator Instructions) James Chmiel, Piper Sandler.

(操作員指示) James Chmiel、Piper Sandler。

Good morning. James.

早安.詹姆斯。

How should we be thinking of reinsurance renewal cost and the ability to get additional rate through regulators in impacted geography?

我們應該如何考慮再保險續保成本以及透過受影響地區的監理機關獲得額外費率的能力？

So maybe, Keith will start on reinsurance, I'll hit on rate.

因此，也許 Keith 會開始從事再保險，我會從事利率業務。

Yes. So from a reinsurance perspective, we were at about $186 million for 2024 that included in the first quarter a benefit when we went to the single placement of about $15 million. So that would move you to around $200 million for the reinsurance.

是的。因此，從再保險的角度來看，我們在 2024 年的金額約為 1.86 億美元，其中包括第一季我們進行單筆投保時的收益約 1,500 萬美元。因此這將導致您的再保險費用達到約 2 億美元。

And then we're going through the process right now, and we're currently evaluating our program structure. And we expect to maintain a relatively consistent program retention, historically, a one in five probable maximum loss. So with the volumes being up a little bit, we think the pricing should be pretty favorable as well. So it will probably be up a little bit for the volumes from there, maybe slightly better on the on-level pricing. But what we'll definitely do for you is give more details on the final program as we get into our next earnings call.

然後我們現在正在經歷這個過程，我們目前正在評估我們的程序結構。我們希望保持相對一致的專案保留率，從歷史上看，可能的最大損失為五分之一。因此，隨著銷售量略有上升，我們認為定價也應該相當有利。因此，從那裡開始，銷售量可能會略有上升，或許在同一水平的定價上會稍微好一些。但我們一定會在下次財報電話會議時為您提供有關最終計劃的更多詳細資訊。

Yes. And I think we've got a really, really strong track record. Our program has certainly outperformed the market generally for our reinsurance partners. We've got a really diverse panel of reinsurers, and I think our relationships are incredibly strong. So expect that to continue as we go forward.

是的。我認為我們擁有非常非常好的業績記錄。對於我們的再保險合作夥伴來說，我們的計劃總體上表現優於市場。我們擁有一支多元化的再保險公司團隊，我認為我們的關係非常強大。因此，我們期望這種情況能夠持續下去。

And then as we think about rate and the ability to get rate on the housing side, I'd say we obviously file our rates at a state level. Those rates are reviewed and approved, and we've had a really good track record of getting appropriate rates relative to the risk that we write no reason to believe that won't continue to be true as we go forward. And I think we've had a long history of doing that. So not a point of concern and certainly a normal part of our process.

然後，當我們考慮利率以及在住房方面獲得利率的能力時，我想說我們顯然是在州一級提交我們的利率。這些利率都經過了審查和批准，我們在獲得適當利率方面有著良好的記錄，相對於風險，我們沒有理由相信這種情況在未來不會繼續存在。我認為我們這樣做已經有很長的歷史了。因此，這不是一個值得關注的問題，而且肯定是我們流程的正常部分。

Perfect. Thank you for the color. My follow-up question is regarding tariffs. How does this impact your view on input costs for the businesses of lifestyle? And how should we be thinking of the FX impact in '25? Thank you.

完美的。謝謝你的顏色。我的後續問題是關於關稅。這對您對生活風格業務投入成本的看法有何影響？我們該如何看待 25 年的外匯影響？謝謝。

You bet. Thank you. So we haven't baked anything into our guide for the year relative to tariffs just because of the uncertainty that surrounds it and it's ever evolving. So but we did certainly think about foreign exchange. We thought about interest rates. We try to include assumptions around those elements, which obviously tariffs have an impact on. So that's certainly baked into our '25 view.

當然。謝謝。因此，我們沒有將任何與關稅相關的內容納入年度指南，因為關稅存在不確定性並且會不斷變化。但我們確實考慮過外匯。我們考慮了利率。我們嘗試圍繞這些顯然受關稅影響的因素做出假設。所以這肯定符合我們 25 年的看法。

And then what I would say on tariffs is certainly the bigger effects for us would be longer term, is there a drop in consumer demand with elevated pricing, that's something we'll monitor. It will have a longer-term effect certainly in terms of financial impact. The bigger short-term impact would be rising input costs around claims, parts and materials what I would highlight is we saw a significant amount of inflation in 2022 in housing and because our product is built with an automatic inflation guard feature, we've always got the ability to get rate. We took a lot of action around product and efficiency. The recovery from that has been quite strong in the last two years. So I feel really good about our long-term ability to get to a good place.

關於關稅，我想說的是，它對我們來說肯定會產生更大的長期影響，價格上漲是否會導致消費者需求下降，這是我們將要監控的事情。從財務影響來看，它肯定會產生長期影響。更大的短期影響將是索賠、零件和材料方面的投入成本上升，我想強調的是，我們在 2022 年看到了住房方面的大量通貨膨脹，而且由於我們的產品具有自動通膨保護功能，我們始終有能力獲得利率。我們圍繞產品和效率採取了很多行動。過去兩年的復甦勢頭相當強勁。因此，我對於我們長期取得良好進展的能力感到非常滿意。

And then the other side would be the auto business. We've seen elevated CPI on auto repairs in the last couple of years. We've built a really strong muscle with our clients in terms of regular reviews, monthly reviews around loss ratios, claims costs, by location, by geography, that will continue to be true. And if there's elevated input costs around tariffs, we'll continue to run the playbook that we've been running. It doesn't change our long-term view around the strength of this business fundamentally. But what would you add?

另一面是汽車業務。過去幾年，我們看到汽車維修的 CPI 有所上升。我們與客戶建立了非常強大的關係，定期審查、每月審查損失率、索賠成本、按地點、按地理位置，這種關係將繼續保持下去。如果關稅方面的投入成本上升，我們將繼續執行我們一直以來的策略。它不會從根本上改變我們對該業務實力的長期看法。但您還想補充什麼呢？

Yes. And I think going through the inflation environments for auto and for housing has really helped us develop a tremendous amount of rigor around navigating any changes in inflation. A good example is in our housing business, we used to have an inflation guard adjustment that would be -- that would take place once a year.

是的。我認為，經歷汽車和住房的通膨環境確實幫助我們在應對通膨變化方面形成了極其嚴謹的態度。一個很好的例子就是我們的房地產業務，我們曾經進行過每年一次的通膨防禦調整。

And now -- and across all the 50 states now, we actually can do it quarterly, and we do it by state. So I think those are the types of things that as you go through those times, you actually can come out of it stronger and better. And I think that's a good example of what we've been able to do after the last couple of years.

現在——在全部 50 個州，我們實際上可以按季度進行，並且按州進行。所以我認為，當你經歷這些事情時，你實際上可以變得更強大、更好。我認為這是我們過去幾年所取得的成就的一個很好的例子。

Mark Hughes, Truist.

馬克·休斯，Truist。

Yes, I love it. The prior year development in the fourth quarter was the driver of that similar to what you saw earlier in the year?

是的，我喜歡它。去年第四季的發展情況與今年稍早的情況類似嗎？

Yes. So I think the short answer is probably yes. The key thing Mark, is it really relates to a couple of things. One, certainly, coming out of the inflationary environment for the last couple of years, that's really what's contributed to our prior our prior year development in 2024.

是的。因此我認為簡短的回答可能是肯定的。關鍵的是，馬克，它確實與幾件事相關。首先，毫無疑問，過去幾年通膨環境的出現，確實推動了我們在 2024 年所取得的發展。

And then I think there is also an element of -- we also saw moments of frequencies being lower than expected. A good example is there was a quarter in the last couple of years, that was one of the lowest frequency quarters from a historical perspective for us. So there's a couple of those dynamics that I would say we're playing into the reserves for the last year or so. But overall, I think we're appropriately reserved and in a good position for the future.

然後我認為還有一個因素——我們也看到頻率低於預期的時刻。一個很好的例子是，過去幾年中有一個季度，從歷史角度來看，這是頻率最低的季度之一。所以我想說，在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們正在利用這些動態來影響儲備。但總體而言，我認為我們已經適當保留，為未來做好了準備。

Yes. And I think if you look at the housing business and you sort of walked out the $107 million of PYD this year and then you walked out the $54 million of PYD last year, you're still at a 28% growth rate for the full year. So at every level, the housing business has outperformed, no matter how you look at it.

是的。我認為，如果您看一下住房業務，今年的 PYD 為 1.07 億美元，而去年的 PYD 為 5400 萬美元，全年的增長率仍然為 28%。因此，無論從哪個層面來看，房地產業務都表現出色。

Am I right in thinking the fourth quarter ex-cat prior year development, loss ratio was very good. Do you assume that, that will continue into the in 2025? I know you said the mid-80s combined. I assume that has -- does that have cats in it or not? And should we think that 4Q? Is it something that you can run rate? Or is that an anomaly?

我是否正確地認為第四季除巨災因素外去年同期的發展、損失率非常好。您認為這種情況會持續到 2025 年嗎？我知道您說的是 80 年代中期的總和。我猜那裡面有貓嗎？我們是否應該認為是第四季？這是您可以運行的速率嗎？或者這只是一個異常現象？

Yes. I think our best view as we think about '25 would be non-cat loss ratio in the high 30s an expense ratio in the high 30s and probably 10 points-ish of cat given the California wildfires in the first quarter. So probably a little bit better non-cat loss ratio trend that we've seen a little bit higher cat load, probably gets you right back to a similar spot in mid-80s.

是的。我認為，當我們考慮 25 年時，我們最好的觀點是非巨災損失率在 30% 以上，費用率在 30% 以上，並且考慮到第一季加州的野火，巨災損失率可能在 10 個百分點左右。因此，非貓損失率趨勢可能會好一些，我們已經看到了貓負載略高一些，可能會讓你回到80年代中期的類似水平。

Yes. And maybe just to add -- I'm just going to say, maybe just to add the 10 points, just the way to think about it is, give or take, $150 million on the wildfires. Last year, we did $155 million cat load in. So we expect that to be a little higher this year with the growth. But if you add those together, we expect it to be somewhere in the low 300s, and we'll finalize that more specifically on the next earnings call.

是的。也許只是補充一下——我只是想說，也許只是補充 10 點，想想的方式是，大約 1.5 億美元用於撲滅野火。去年，我們的超重貨物運輸量達 1.55 億美元。因此，我們預計今年的成長幅度會略高一些。但如果將這些加在一起，我們預計它會在 300 出頭左右，我們將在下次財報電話會議上更具體地確定這一點。

And then you talked about the opportunity to be better appreciated, Keith, in your opening comments, and I know you gave a lot of good statistics about your performance relative to industry metrics. Anything more specific you had in mind when you think about the opportunity to be better appreciated some action on your part or positioning of the company just that --.

然後，基思，在開場白中，您談到了獲得更好讚賞的機會，我知道您給出了很多關於您相對於行業指標的表現的很好的統計數據。當你想到有機會更好地被欣賞時，你想到了什麼更具體的事情，你的一些行動或公司的定位就是這樣--.

Yes, we probably used similar phrases in different ways at different times. I think certainly, the market appreciates the lifestyle business, it's more capital-light, fee income, et cetera. And I think what sometimes gets missed is the strength -- the fundamental strength of the housing business and the housing franchise over the long term. It's been a really, really strong performer. It's well risk managed. We've demonstrated considerable resiliency. It's much less volatile.

是的，我們可能在不同時間以不同的方式使用類似的短語。我認為，市場肯定會欣賞生活方式業務，因為它資本更輕，費用收入更多，等等。我認為，人們有時會忽略住房業務和住房特許經營的長期實力——根本實力。它的表現確實非常非常強勁。風險管理很好。我們已展現出相當強的韌性。它的波動性要小得多。

And we're delivering -- we talked about it on the prepared remarks, a 10-year combined ratio of 89% against any measure that is outperforming the market, the industry. If you look at pure homeowners companies, it'd even be a more dramatic differential versus just looking at at a wider cross-section across P&C. So I think the business is incredibly powerful. I think it scales well. It's deeply integrated and it's not a traditional product. It's the services that we deliver that complement the core insurance products that differentiate us.

我們在準備好的發言稿中談到了這一點，即 10 年期綜合比率為 89%，相對於任何指標，該比率都優於市場和行業。如果你看一下純粹的房主公司，與僅僅查看財產和意外事故保險公司的更廣泛的橫截面相比，差異會更加顯著。所以我認為這個業務非常強大。我認為它的可擴展性很好。它是深度整合的，它不是傳統的產品。我們所提供的服務是核心保險產品的補充，這也是我們與眾不同之處。

And I think it's on Assurant to help tell that story and just further educate the secret sauce of what we do and how we create value because our story is consistent, whether it's mobile, whether it's auto or housing, how we add value for partners is really unique, super differentiated and hard to replicate. And it scales incredibly well because we're partnered with the who's who, the leaders in the market and the market consolidator. So we've got to continue to tell that story and that's what we'll do as we go forward.

我認為 Assurant 可以幫助講述這個故事，並進一步教育我們所做的秘密以及我們如何創造價值，因為我們的故事是一致的，無論是移動、汽車還是住房，我們為合作夥伴增加價值的方式確實是獨一無二的、超級差異化的並且難以復制。而且它的擴展性非常好，因為我們與市場知名企業、領導者和市場整合者合作。所以我們必須繼續講述這個故事，這就是我們今後要做的事情。

And I think that was the last question. So we'll go ahead and say thank you, everybody, for joining, and we'll look forward to providing more updates on our next earnings call in May. Thanks very much. Have a great day.

我認為這是最後一個問題。因此，我們要感謝大家的加入，我們期待在 5 月的下一次財報電話會議上提供更多更新。非常感謝。祝你有美好的一天。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。請立即斷開您的線路，祝您有美好的一天。