美鋁公司討論了 2023 年第四季度的收益,強調了他們對安全和卓越營運的關注。他們創下了生產記錄,並獲得了西澳大利亞鋁土礦開採的批准。然而,他們宣布關閉澳洲的奎納納煉油廠,並討論了西班牙聖西普里安煉油廠和冶煉廠持續的財務損失。
美鋁第四季營收持平,為 26 億美元,淨虧損 1.5 億美元。 2023 年全年營收下降至 106 億美元,淨虧損惡化至 6.51 億美元。美鋁預計2024 年氧化鋁和鋁產量將分別在980 萬噸至1000 萬噸和220 萬噸至230 萬噸之間。他們討論了市場狀況、盈利能力改善行動以及圣西普里安綜合體面臨的挑戰。
美鋁的目標是改善財務表現並保持積極勢頭。他們正在與工會和政府合作,為聖西普里安設施尋找解決方案。美鋁預計 2024 年第一季淨收入為 2,700 萬美元,每季淨收入為 1,000 萬美元。他們計劃在 San Ciprian 保留現金,並正在考慮與工會就全面削減產能進行談判。
美鋁公司正在開發低碳解決方案,並致力於在聖西普里安工廠保存現金。他們專注於使營運可行,並期望透過節省成本和改善運營,在未來兩年內將 EBITDA 加倍。他們還在尋求許可並重組陷入財務困境的業務。
使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主
Operator
Operator
Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Presentation and Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, today's event is being recorded.
下午好,歡迎來到美鋁公司 2023 年第四季財報和電話會議。 (操作員說明)請注意,今天的活動正在錄製中。
I'd now like to turn the conference over to James Dwyer, Vice President, Investor Relations and Pension Investments. Please go ahead.
現在我想將會議交給投資者關係和退休金投資副總裁 James Dwyer。請繼續。
James Dwyer - VP of IR
James Dwyer - VP of IR
Thank you, and good day, everyone. I'm joined today by William Oplinger, Alcoa Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer; and Molly Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Bill and Molly.
謝謝大家,祝大家有美好的一天。今天,美國鋁業公司總裁兼執行長威廉·奧普林格 (William Oplinger) 也加入了我的行列。執行副總裁兼財務長莫莉‧比爾曼 (Molly Beerman)。我們將在比爾和莫莉發表評論後回答您的問題。
As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings.
提醒一下,今天的討論將包含與未來事件和預期相關的前瞻性陳述,這些陳述受到各種假設和警告的影響。可能導致公司實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異的因素已包含在今天的簡報和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。
In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. For historical non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation. We have not presented quantitative reconciliations of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures for reasons noted on this slide.
此外,我們也在本簡報中納入了一些非公認會計準則財務指標。對於歷史非 GAAP 財務指標,可以在今天簡報的附錄中找到與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。由於本投影片中所述的原因,我們尚未提供某些前瞻性非公認會計原則財務指標的定量調節表。
Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA.
我們今天討論中提及的 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA。
Finally, as previously announced, the earnings press release and slide presentation are available on our website.
最後,如同先前所宣布的,收益新聞稿和幻燈片簡報可在我們的網站上取得。
With that, here's Bill.
說到這裡,比爾來了。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Jim, and welcome, everyone, to our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. Today, we'll review the substantial progress we've made in the fourth quarter on key objectives, the financial results, the market and our plans to continue to improve and strengthen our company.
謝謝吉姆,歡迎大家參加我們的 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。今天,我們將回顧第四季度在關鍵目標、財務業績、市場以及我們繼續改進和加強公司的計劃方面取得的實質進展。
I started last quarter's call by affirming the areas of Alcoa's near-term focus in reinforcing our values: to act with integrity, operate with excellence, care for people and lead with courage. Consistent with those values, I'm proud that Alcoa's safety performance showed marked improvement in 2023. While we experienced 2 FSI-As last year, we improved year-over-year in all key safety metrics. We intend to continue our progress toward our goal of an injury-free workplace.
我在上個季度的電話會議一開始就肯定了美鋁近期強化價值觀的重點領域:誠信行事、卓越營運、關心員工和勇敢領導。與這些價值觀一致,我感到自豪的是,美鋁的安全績效在 2023 年取得了顯著改善。雖然我們去年經歷了 2 次 FSI-A,但我們在所有關鍵安全指標上都逐年提高。我們打算繼續朝著無傷害工作場所的目標邁進。
Safety performance is important for another reason, too. It's a key indicator of the stability and quality of our operations. Excellent safety performance goes hand-in-hand with operational excellence. I'm not surprised then that given our strong safety performance, we set production records at our 3 smelters in Canada and 1 in Norway, and we are also successfully restarting 1 potline at Warrick here in the States.
安全性能也很重要還有另一個原因。這是我們營運穩定性和品質的關鍵指標。卓越的安全性能與卓越的營運密不可分。鑑於我們強大的安全性能,我們在加拿大的3 座冶煉廠和挪威的1 座冶煉廠創下了生產記錄,並且我們還成功重啟了美國沃里克的1 條電解槽生產線,對此我並不感到驚訝。
We made great progress on other focus areas, too. We achieved what I said was our most important objective, gaining approvals for our bauxite mines in Western Australia. With these approvals, we now have a clear path forward for continued operation in Western Australia.
我們在其他重點領域也取得了巨大進展。我們實現了我所說的最重要的目標,即獲得西澳大利亞鋁土礦開採的批准。有了這些批准,我們現在在西澳大利亞繼續運營有了明確的前進道路。
Also in WA, we recently announced the curtailment of the 60-year-old Kwinana refinery, starting in the second quarter of this year. The decision was based on a variety of factors, including Kwinana's age, scale, operating costs and current bauxite grades, in addition to current market conditions. In December, we began engagement with the national and regional authorities in Spain as well as the Labor Works Council to discuss ongoing financial losses at the San Ciprian refinery and smelter. We are considering all forms of relief while working collaboratively on a long-term solution with the complex.
同樣在西澳,我們最近宣布從今年第二季開始關閉已有 60 年歷史的奎納納煉油廠。該決定基於多種因素,包括奎納納的年齡、規模、營運成本和當前鋁土礦品位,以及當前的市場狀況。 12 月,我們開始與西班牙國家和地區當局以及勞工工作委員會接觸,討論聖西普里安煉油廠和冶煉廠持續的財務損失。我們正在考慮各種形式的救濟,同時與建築群合作制定長期解決方案。
With that, let me turn it over to Molly to go over the financials.
有了這個,讓我把它交給莫莉來檢查財務狀況。
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Thank you, Bill.
謝謝你,比爾。
Revenue was flat sequentially at $2.6 billion as lower shipments for both alumina and aluminum more than offset higher alumina realized price.
由於氧化鋁和鋁的出貨量減少足以抵消氧化鋁實現價格的上漲,營收與上一季持平,為 26 億美元。
The net loss attributable to Alcoa improved $18 million to $150 million, and the loss per share improved from $0.94 to $0.84. On an adjusted basis, the net loss attributable to Alcoa was $100 million or $0.56. The difference is primarily related to the recording of a valuation allowance on deferred tax assets in Brazil, net of noncontrolling interest.
美國鋁業的淨虧損從 1,800 萬美元減少到 1.5 億美元,每股虧損從 0.94 美元減少到 0.84 美元。調整後,美國鋁業公司的淨虧損為 1 億美元,即 0.56 美元。差異主要與記錄巴西遞延稅資產的估價備抵(扣除非控制權益)有關。
Adjusted EBITDA increased $19 million to $89 million.
調整後 EBITDA 增加 1,900 萬美元,達到 8,900 萬美元。
For the full year 2023, year-over-year revenues decreased $1.9 billion to $10.6 billion, and net loss attributable to Alcoa worsened, $528 million, to a loss of $651 million or $3.65 per share.
2023 年全年營收年減 19 億美元至 106 億美元,美國鋁業淨虧損進一步惡化,為 5.28 億美元,至 6.51 億美元或每股虧損 3.65 美元。
Adjusted net income changed from $869 million in 2022 to a loss of $405 million in 2023 or $2.27 per share. And adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, moved from $2.2 billion to $536 million.
調整後淨利從 2022 年的 8.69 億美元變為 2023 年的虧損 4.05 億美元,即每股虧損 2.27 美元。調整後的 EBITDA(不包括特殊項目)從 22 億美元增加到 5.36 億美元。
Let's look at the key drivers of EBITDA. Fourth quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA increased as improved raw material costs and shipment volumes offset energy and price/mix challenges. In addition, favorable production costs, including recognition of the full year benefit for Section 45X of the Inflation Reduction Act at Warrick and Massena more than offset higher other expenses.
讓我們看看 EBITDA 的主要驅動因素。由於原材料成本和出貨量的改善抵消了能源和價格/組合挑戰,2023 年第四季度調整後 EBITDA 有所增加。此外,有利的生產成本,包括承認沃里克和馬塞納《通貨膨脹減少法案》第 45X 條的全年效益,足以抵消其他較高的費用。
Alumina segment EBITDA increased $31 million sequentially, primarily on lower raw material costs and lower production costs in Brazil and Australia. We also saw a substantial benefit from lower raw material costs in the aluminum segment which, combined with favorable production costs, primarily 45X, to offset the impact of higher energy costs and lower value-add product premiums. The higher energy costs included a second year of unfavorable legislative changes in Norway's CO2 compensation arrangement.
氧化鋁部門 EBITDA 環比增長 3,100 萬美元,主要是由於巴西和澳洲原材料成本以及生產成本降低。我們也看到鋁業原料成本降低的巨大好處,再加上有利的生產成本(主要是 45X),抵銷了能源成本上升和附加價值產品溢價降低的影響。較高的能源成本包括挪威二氧化碳補償安排第二年出現不利的立法變化。
Outside the segments, transformation and demolition costs were lower, but intersegment eliminations and other corporate costs were unfavorable. Let's look at cash movements within the fourth quarter on the next slide.
在部門之外,改造和拆除成本較低,但部門間抵銷和其他企業成本不利。讓我們在下一張投影片上看看第四季的現金變動。
The cash balance increased $18 million in the quarter to $944 million. The largest source of cash was working capital reduction of $222 million which more than offset the largest use of cash, capital expenditures, at $188 million. Higher EBITDA of $89 million various other items totaling $97 million and net noncontrolling interest contributions of $18 million mostly offset all other uses of cash.
本季現金餘額增加 1,800 萬美元,達到 9.44 億美元。最大的現金來源是營運資本減少 2.22 億美元,這遠遠抵消了最大的現金使用,即資本支出 1.88 億美元。較高的 EBITDA 為 8,900 萬美元,其他各種項目總計 9,700 萬美元,非控股利息貢獻淨額為 1,800 萬美元,大部分抵銷了所有其他現金用途。
Moving on to other key financial metrics. Our key financial metrics are consistent with our earnings results. Full year 2023 return on equity was negative 8.9%. Our fourth quarter dividend added $18 million to stockholder capital returns, which totaled $72 million for the year. While free cash flow, plus net noncontrolling interest contributions, was negative for the year at $282 million, it was positive $28 million in the fourth quarter. Proportional adjusted net debt increased by $0.1 billion due to fourth quarter pension and OPEB plan remeasurements. In both the fourth quarter and full year 2023, capital expenditures and cash income taxes were our largest uses of cash.
轉向其他關鍵財務指標。我們的主要財務指標與我們的獲利結果一致。 2023 年全年股本報酬率為負 8.9%。我們第四季的股利為股東資本回報增加了 1,800 萬美元,全年股東資本回報總額為 7,200 萬美元。儘管今年自由現金流加上淨非控股利息貢獻為負數 2.82 億美元,但第四季卻為正數 2,800 萬美元。由於第四季度退休金和 OPEB 計劃的重新衡量,按比例調整後的淨債務增加了 1 億美元。在 2023 年第四季和全年,資本支出和現金所得稅是我們最大的現金用途。
Days working capital improved 11 days to 39 days year-over-year primarily on decreases in inventories of $243 million. Sequential improvement, also 11 days, was driven primarily by the typical increase in year-end payables while reducing inventory values further. The improved working capital performance provided a significant source of cash in the fourth quarter, resulting in a full year working capital source of cash of $221 million.
營運資金天數年減 11 天至 39 天,主要是因為庫存減少了 2.43 億美元。連續改善也是 11 天,主要是由於年末應付帳款的典型成長同時進一步降低了庫存價值。營運資金績效的改善為第四季度提供了重要的現金來源,全年營運資金現金來源達到 2.21 億美元。
Let's turn to the outlook in the first quarter and the full year 2024. For 2024, we have included an outlook for both production and shipments for the segments. We expect alumina production to range between 9.8 million and 10.0 million tonnes and shipments to range between 12.7 million and 12.9 million tonnes. The difference reflects our normal trading volumes as well as externally sourced alumina to cover the customer contracts previously fulfilled by Kwinana production. The aluminum segment is expected to produce between 2.2 million and 2.3 million tonnes, increasing on smelter restarts, while shipments hold steady between 2.5 million and 2.6 million tonnes due to lower projected trading volumes.
讓我們來展望 2024 年第一季和全年。對於 2024 年,我們對各細分市場的產量和出貨量進行了展望。我們預計氧化鋁產量將在 980 萬噸至 1,000 萬噸之間,出貨量將在 1,270 萬噸至 1,290 萬噸之間。這一差異反映了我們的正常交易量以及外部採購的氧化鋁,以涵蓋奎納納生產先前履行的客戶合約。鋁產量預計將在 220 萬至 230 萬噸之間,因冶煉廠重啟而增加,而由於預計交易量下降,出貨量穩定在 250 萬至 260 萬噸之間。
In EBITDA items outside the segments, we expect transformation costs to remain at $80 million and other corporate expense to improve to $120 million, reflecting a portion of our efforts in productivity and competitiveness programs.
在部門以外的 EBITDA 專案中,我們預計轉型成本將保持在 8,000 萬美元,其他公司費用將提高至 1.2 億美元,這反映了我們在生產力和競爭力計劃方面所做的部分努力。
Below EBITDA, we expect depreciation to increase to $675 million primarily due to additional assets placed in service as well as increases in the assets related to asset retirement obligations from mine reclamation and bauxite residue storage.
低於 EBITDA,我們預計折舊將增加至 6.75 億美元,主要是由於投入使用的資產增加,以及與礦山復墾和鋁土礦殘渣儲存的資產報廢義務相關的資產增加。
Nonoperating pension and OPEB expense is expected to be flat at $15 million, and interest expense will be comparable to 2023's level, at $110 million. For cash flow impacts, we expect 2024 pension and OPEB required cash funding to be similar to 2023, at $70 million. The majority of that spend is U.S. OPEB.
非營業性退休金和 OPEB 支出預計將持平於 1,500 萬美元,利息支出將與 2023 年的水準相當,即 1.1 億美元。對於現金流影響,我們預計 2024 年退休金和 OPEB 所需現金資金與 2023 年類似,為 7,000 萬美元。其中大部分支出來自美國歐佩克 (OPEB)。
Our capital returns to stockholders will continue to be aligned with our capital allocation framework.
我們對股東的資本回報將繼續與我們的資本配置框架保持一致。
Our current capital expenditure estimate is $550 million, with $90 million in return-seeking and $460 million in sustaining capital. Approximately 65% of the total CapEx is within the alumina segment where 40% is funded by our JV partner.
我們目前的資本支出預計為 5.5 億美元,其中 9,000 萬美元用於尋求回報,4.6 億美元用於維持資本。總資本支出的約 65% 屬於氧化鋁領域,其中 40% 由我們的合資夥伴提供資金。
Looking ahead to 2025 and 2026, we expect CapEx to increase approximately $50 million to about $600 million primarily related to mine moves. We expect approximately $130 million lower prior period income tax payments in 2024, down to $50 million. Environmental and ARO spending is expected to increase to approximately $295 million. Approximately $20 million relate to accelerated mine rehabilitation in both Australia and Brazil. We also expect higher spending at Kwinana and residue area closures and regulatory requirements in Brazil, and more spend is projected for demolition and remediation at previously closed sites in 2024 as we prepare those properties for future redevelopment.
展望 2025 年和 2026 年,我們預計資本支出將增加約 5,000 萬美元至約 6 億美元,主要與礦場搬遷有關。我們預計 2024 年前期所得稅繳納額將減少約 1.3 億美元,降至 5,000 萬美元。環境和 ARO 支出預計將增加至約 2.95 億美元。大約 2000 萬美元用於加速澳大利亞和巴西的礦山恢復。我們也預計奎納納的支出以及巴西剩餘區域的關閉和監管要求將會增加,並且預計2024 年將有更多支出用於先前關閉場地的拆除和修復,因為我們正在為未來的重建做好準備。
While we do not provide guidance on full year cash restructuring charges, we did provide the estimates for the Kwinana curtailment in our January 8 announcement. Of Alcoa's share of related cash outlays, approximately $80 million are expected to be spent in 2024 and approximately $35 million in 2025. Our JV partner, Alumina Limited, will cover the remaining 40% of those costs or approximately $65 million.
雖然我們沒有提供全年現金重組費用的指導,但我們在 1 月 8 日的公告中提供了對奎納納削減費用的估計。在美鋁所佔的相關現金支出中,預計2024 年將支出約8,000 萬美元,2025 年將支出約3,500 萬美元。我們的合資夥伴Alumina Limited 將承擔這些成本的其餘40%,即約6,500 萬美元。
To provide flexibility to implement our portfolio actions, today, we executed an amendment to our revolving credit facility agreement, which includes adjusting covenant limits for the 2024 fiscal year.
為了提供實施投資組合行動的靈活性,今天,我們對循環信貸便利協議進行了修訂,其中包括調整 2024 財年的契約限額。
Looking at the first quarter, in the alumina segment, we expect approximately $15 million unfavorable impact related to higher maintenance costs and lower volume in Australia. In addition, we expect benefits from lower raw materials and energy costs to be fully offset by other factors.
展望第一季度,在氧化鋁領域,我們預計由於維護成本上升和澳洲產量下降而產生約 1500 萬美元的不利影響。此外,我們預期原材料和能源成本下降的好處將被其他因素完全抵消。
In aluminum, we expect multiple factors to fully offset, including favorable energy impacts primarily due to lower prices in Brazil and Norway, lower product premiums, and unfavorable net impact from the non-recurrence of fourth quarter 2023 onetime items. Alumina cost in the aluminum segment are expected to be unfavorable by $5 million.
在鋁方面,我們預計多種因素將完全抵消,包括主要由於巴西和挪威價格下跌而帶來的有利能源影響、產品溢價降低以及2023 年第四季度一次性項目不再出現帶來的不利淨影響。鋁業的氧化鋁成本預計將下降 500 萬美元。
Additionally, we expect a onetime unfavorable impact of approximately $20 million as the hedge programs for the Alumar smelter restart ended in December 2023.
此外,隨著 Alumar 冶煉廠重啟的對沖計劃於 2023 年 12 月結束,我們預計將產生約 2,000 萬美元的一次性不利影響。
Below EBITDA, note that fourth quarter other expenses included onetime positive impacts of $51 million primarily foreign currency gains.
請注意,在 EBITDA 下方,第四季度的其他支出包括 5,100 萬美元的一次性正面影響,主要是外匯收益。
Based on recent pricing, we expect first quarter 2024 operational tax expense to be negligible.
根據最近的定價,我們預計 2024 年第一季的營運稅費用可以忽略不計。
Now I'll turn it back to Bill.
現在我會把它轉回給比爾。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Molly. Now let's discuss our markets.
謝謝,莫莉。現在讓我們討論一下我們的市場。
In alumina, prices rallied at the end of the fourth quarter driven by announced Chinese refinery curtailments due to a domestic bauxite shortage and concerns about Guinea bauxite supply and have continued to increase in January. We expect the market to be short in 2024 with steady demand from smelters and little inventory available.
氧化鋁方面,由於國內鋁土礦短缺以及對幾內亞鋁土礦供應的擔憂,中國宣布了煉油廠減產,因此價格在第四季度末上漲,並在 1 月繼續上漲。我們預計 2024 年市場將出現短缺,冶煉廠需求穩定且可用庫存很少。
In aluminum, for 2024, we expect a balanced to a slight surplus market depending on the speed of demand recovery during the year. On the supply side, there are a few announced restarts or new projects, and China has held to its 45 million tonne capacity cap. In addition, hydropower shortages caused 1.2 million tonnes of capacity to be curtailed in Yunnan province last November.
在鋁方面,我們預計 2024 年市場將保持平衡至輕微過剩,具體取決於年內需求復甦的速度。在供應方面,有一些已宣布的重啟或新項目,中國已維持4500萬噸的產能上限。此外,去年11月,水電短缺導致雲南省120萬噸產能被削減。
Demand has stabilized in North America and Europe, and we see the potential for a moderate recovery throughout the year. Regional premiums are increasing due to both the widening contango and higher transportation costs to import metal.
北美和歐洲的需求已經穩定,我們看到全年溫和復甦的潛力。由於期貨溢價擴大和進口金屬運輸成本上升,地區溢價正在上漲。
In our order book, value-add product orders are stabilizing and premiums appear to be firming up. While lower than their peaks, VAT premiums remain above historical levels.
在我們的訂單簿中,加值產品訂單正在穩定,溢價似乎正在堅挺。雖然增值稅溢價低於峰值,但仍高於歷史水平。
In China, we expect government stimulus programs to prompt demand growth as those measures take effect. Globally, growth in aluminum-intensive EVs and renewable power infrastructure will continue to support this positive trend. We also see demand improving in packaging as inventory destocking has been largely accomplished.
在中國,我們預計政府刺激計劃生效後將促進需求成長。在全球範圍內,鋁密集型電動車和再生能源基礎設施的成長將繼續支持這一積極趨勢。我們也看到,隨著庫存去庫存已基本完成,包裝需求也有所改善。
And finally, on a concerning note, we have seen the share of Russian metal stocks on the LME soar to 90% in December. Because LME stocks are now predominantly Russian-origin metal, which is unwanted by much of the world, subject to a 200% tariff in the U.S. and now legally prohibited in the U.K., it is difficult to have confidence that the LME exchange price matches the true physical price for non-Russian aluminum. In December, we joined others within European Aluminium to call on the EU to progress sanctions against Russia and specifically to include aluminum primary metal, which remains outside of the scope of the measures currently agreed to by the EU.
最後,令人擔憂的是,我們看到 12 月俄羅斯金屬股在倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 的份額飆升至 90%。由於LME 股票現在主要是原產於俄羅斯的金屬,而世界上許多國家都不需要這種金屬,而且在美國要繳納200% 的關稅,而且現在在英國受到法律禁止,因此很難相信LME 的交易價格與實際價格相符。非俄羅斯鋁的真實實體價格。去年12月,我們與歐洲鋁業內部的其他人一起呼籲歐盟推進對俄羅斯的製裁,特別是將鋁原生金屬納入製裁範圍,而鋁原生金屬仍不在歐盟目前同意的措施範圍之內。
Now let's turn our focus from the market to Alcoa and our actions to improve profitability. This slide describes factors that can improve our financial performance over 2023's results. As you can see from the chart, we have significant upside potential to adjusted EBITDA. We divide the improvement drivers into three categories: near-term actions, medium-term opportunities and market improvement.
現在讓我們把焦點從市場轉向美鋁以及我們提高獲利能力的行動。這張投影片描述了可以改善我們 2023 年財務表現的因素。從圖表中可以看出,調整後的 EBITDA 具有巨大的上升潛力。我們將改善驅動因素分為三類:近期行動、中期機會、市場改善。
Near-term actions are underway and have the most well-defined financial impacts. The largest area of impact is our $310 million estimate of raw material savings for 2024, including for key raw materials like caustic soda and lime for refining and anode carbon products for smelting. Thanks to our procurement team's actions as well as pricing and inventory lags, roughly 1/3 of that amount is already fully realizable, and the remainder is conservatively estimated using current market pricing.
近期行動正在進行中,並且具有最明確的財務影響。影響最大的領域是我們預計到 2024 年可節省 3.1 億美元的原材料,其中包括用於精煉的燒鹼和石灰以及用於冶煉的陽極碳產品等關鍵原材料。由於我們採購團隊的行動以及定價和庫存滯後,大約 1/3 的金額已經完全實現,其餘部分是使用當前市場定價保守估計的。
Next, we are targeting a $100 million benefit from our program to reduce controllable operating costs across our organization outside of raw materials, energy and transportation, which are already under active management. Recently initiated full run rate savings are expected to be achieved by the first quarter of 2025. This overarching program includes general belt tightening as well as efforts, such as our workforce blueprint, in which we benchmark our operations internally and externally and set aggressive best-in-class goals for each operation.
接下來,我們的目標是從我們的計劃中獲得 1 億美元的收益,以減少我們整個組織除原材料、能源和運輸之外的可控營運成本,這些成本已經在積極管理之下。最近啟動的全面運行率節省預計將在2025 年第一季實現。這一總體計劃包括總體緊縮開支以及我們的勞動力藍圖等工作,在該藍圖中,我們對內部和外部的運營進行了基準測試,並設定了積極的最佳目標。每個操作的課堂目標。
Three additional components of our near-term actions are the Warrick smelter optimization and potline restart with the benefit of additional IRA funding at both Warrick and Massena, completing the Alumar smelter restart, and realizing savings from the Kwinana curtailment. All of these locations are fully mobilized and working toward achieving the savings targets.
我們近期行動的另外三個組成部分是 Warrick 冶煉廠優化和電解槽重啟,受益於 Warrick 和 Massena 的額外 IRA 資金,完成 Alumar 冶煉廠重啟,並實現 Kwinana 削減的節省。所有這些地點都已充分動員起來,努力實現節約目標。
As mentioned earlier, last month, we started discussions with union and government stakeholders of finding a long-term solution for the San Ciprian smelter and refinery. In late 2021, with the support of our employees, local communities and government, we started down a path aimed at positioning the San Ciprian complex for long-term economic viability. To accomplish that goal, Alcoa invested hundreds of millions of dollars in the operations and supporting employees, their families and the local economy. While operations continue to be restricted to 50% at the refinery and are fully curtailed at the smelter, 2023 EBITDA losses were over $150 million across the San Ciprian complex. Despite our collective efforts, we have clearly fallen far short of our goal of achieving economic viability for San Ciprian.
如前所述,上個月,我們開始與工會和政府利益相關者進行討論,為聖西普里安冶煉廠和精煉廠尋找長期解決方案。 2021 年底,在我們的員工、當地社區和政府的支持下,我們開始了一條旨在使聖西普里安綜合體實現長期經濟活力的道路。為了實現這一目標,美國鋁業公司投資了數億美元用於營運並支持員工及其家庭和當地經濟。雖然煉油廠的營運持續限制在 50%,冶煉廠的營運也完全縮減,但整個聖西普里安綜合體 2023 年的 EBITDA 損失超過 1.5 億美元。儘管我們做出了集體努力,但我們顯然還遠遠沒有達到實現聖西普里安經濟活力的目標。
Looking forward into 2024, the San Ciprian complex is expected to incur substantial losses even with the recent improvements in energy markets and the alumina price. If the situation does not change significantly in the months ahead, we anticipate that available funding will be exhausted in the second half of 2024. If that happens, we will have no choice but to make hard decisions that will adversely, and potentially irrevocably, impact employment and the economy in Galicia more broadly. Nobody wants that, but absent significant change, that is exactly what will happen. That is why we are urgently advancing our engagement efforts with employees and governments to begin defining options.
展望 2024 年,即使能源市場和氧化鋁價格近期有所改善,聖西普里安綜合體預計仍將遭受重大損失。如果未來幾個月情況沒有發生重大變化,我們預計可用資金將在 2024 年下半年耗盡。如果發生這種情況,我們將別無選擇,只能做出艱難的決定,這將對更廣泛地講,加利西亞的就業和經濟。沒有人希望這樣,但如果沒有重大變化,這正是將會發生的情況。這就是為什麼我們正在緊急推進與員工和政府的接觸努力,以開始確定選擇。
For its part, Alcoa intends to continue to honor the spirit of the commitments it made in the viability agreement. However, we will need flexibility from our unions and significant support from the regional and national governments.
就美鋁而言,它打算繼續履行其在生存協議中所做的承諾的精神。然而,我們需要工會的靈活性以及地區和國家政府的大力支持。
Medium-term opportunities and market improvements are the other two drivers of adjusted EBITDA improvement potential. Medium-term opportunities are beyond 2024 and 2025 but achievable in the next several years. An example is benefiting from better bauxite grades in Australia after upcoming mine moves. When it comes to market impacts, we are a commodity business. A large part of adjusted EBITDA potential correlates to market improvement. As an example, comparing more favorable 2022 metal and alumina prices to 2023 prices reveals massive potential for EBITDA improvement, especially in the metals segment, should prices increase. We have demonstrated the ability to profit from favorable market conditions when they arise.
中期機會和市場改善是調整後 EBITDA 改善潛力的另外兩個驅動因素。中期機會是在 2024 年和 2025 年之後,但可以在未來幾年內實現。一個例子是澳洲在即將進行的礦場搬遷後受益於更好的鋁土礦品位。就市場影響而言,我們是一家商品企業。調整後的 EBITDA 潛力很大一部分與市場改善有關。例如,將更有利的 2022 年金屬和氧化鋁價格與 2023 年價格進行比較,發現 EBITDA 改善的巨大潛力,特別是在金屬領域,如果價格上漲的話。我們已經證明了在有利的市場條件出現時能夠從有利的市場條件中獲利的能力。
Finally, we have not included here the potential we see from breakthrough R&D technologies, including ELYSIS, because they're longer term. We do not anticipate significant capital expenditures for ELYSIS before the end of the decade, although the continued ramp-up of the R&D work will produce additional volume of ELYSIS metal for the partners, including Alcoa, to bring to market.
最後,我們在這裡沒有包括我們從突破性研發技術(包括 ELYSIS)中看到的潛力,因為它們是長期的。儘管研發工作的持續增加將為包括美國鋁業在內的合作夥伴生產更多的 ELYSIS 金屬,並將其推向市場,但我們預計在本世紀末之前 ELYSIS 不會出現大量資本支出。
For the quarter, I'm very proud that we have remained true to our values, including improving on both safety and operational performance. While profit metrics improved slightly on a sequential basis, we are aiming to improve substantially from where we are today. And on that front, we have made important and impactful progress on our key challenges.
對於本季度,我感到非常自豪,因為我們仍然忠於我們的價值觀,包括提高安全性和營運績效。雖然利潤指標較上季略有改善,但我們的目標是在目前的基礎上大幅改善。在這方面,我們在應對關鍵挑戰方面取得了重要且有影響力的進展。
Going forward, we are working to maintain positive momentum in Western Australia and continue to build toward a long-term solution for our San Ciprian complex in Spain.
展望未來,我們將努力保持西澳大利亞的積極勢頭,並繼續為西班牙圣西普里安綜合體制定長期解決方案。
Our entire organization is focused on delivering near-term actions and company-wide productivity and competitiveness programs. We believe that not only is the medium and long-term outlook for aluminum is strong, but 2024 is starting to look like a positive turning point.
我們整個組織專注於提供近期行動以及全公司的生產力和競爭力計劃。我們認為,鋁的中長期前景不僅強勁,而且 2024 年開始看起來像是一個積極的轉折點。
With that, operator, what questions do we have in the queue?
那麼,接線員,我們隊列中有哪些問題?
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research.
(操作員說明)今天我們的第一個問題來自垂直研究公司的 Michael Dudas。
Michael Stephan Dudas - Partner
Michael Stephan Dudas - Partner
First, with San Ciprian, so Bill, as you've analyzed it from a different seat over the past few months and probably have been dealing with this for several years, can you maybe give a sense of how more comfortable -- or the solutions, are there changes or opportunities that are coming about? Or is it really getting down to the point of something needs to give here, which kind of sounds what you kind of indicated here in your prepared remarks.
首先,對於圣西普里安(San Ciprian),比爾,正如您在過去幾個月中從不同的座位上分析的那樣,並且可能已經處理這個問題好幾年了,您能否給出一種更舒適的感覺,或解決方案,是否會出現變化或機會?或者它真的已經到了需要在這裡提供某些內容的程度,這聽起來就像您在準備好的演講中所表示的那樣。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Yes. Thanks, Mike. Let me just give you some background and give you some thoughts around San Ciprian and the situation there. If you recall, in February 2023, we agreed to a phased restart of the smelter which was supposed to begin in 2024 via what's called the viability agreement. And the refinery has been operating at about 50% capacity since the third quarter of 2022 to try to mitigate the losses. The economics for both the smelter and the refinery remain today unfavorable.
是的。謝謝,麥克。讓我向您介紹一些背景情況,並提供一些關於聖西普里安及其情況的想法。如果你還記得,2023 年 2 月,我們同意透過所謂的可行性協議分階段重啟冶煉廠,該重啟原定於 2024 年開始。自 2022 年第三季以來,該煉油廠一直以約 50% 的產能運行,以試圖減輕損失。如今,冶煉廠和精煉廠的經濟效益仍然不利。
Now we are committed to fulfilling the spirit of the obligations in the viability agreement. However, the commitments need to result in a viable operation. And due to a decline in the markets, both metal and the delay in the development of competitive power solution, the time to realize a viable operation has extended out considerably. And so as you alluded to, under these circumstances, it's prudent to look at every action that we can take to stretch the remaining funds available to see if a viable business plan can be assured for the site.
現在我們致力於履行可行性協議中義務的精神。然而,這些承諾需要帶來可行的運作。由於金屬市場的下滑以及有競爭力的電力解決方案開發的延遲,實現可行運營的時間大大延長了。因此,正如您所提到的,在這種情況下,謹慎地考慮我們可以採取的每一項行動,以利用剩餘的可用資金,看看是否可以確保網站有一個可行的商業計劃。
To be clear, the refinery and the smelter have not been funding their operations. They've not been able to fund their operations for many years, and the operational losses and investments have been funded via loans from other Alcoa entities, and there's virtually no ability for San Ciprian to repay those loans. The Alcoa entities will provide no further funding to an operation that is not viable, and that's an important point for you and others to know.
需要明確的是,煉油廠和冶煉廠尚未為其營運提供資金。他們多年來一直無法為營運提供資金,營運損失和投資都是透過其他美鋁實體的貸款來彌補的,而聖西普里安實際上沒有能力償還這些貸款。美國鋁業公司實體將不再為不可行的業務提供進一步的資金,這是您和其他人必須了解的重要一點。
So at this point, you're probably wondering about timing of a resolution. The timing is not clear at this point, but we're asking the unions for their understanding of the situation and necessary flexibility to reach a solution. Likewise, we're working with the regional and national governments to identify all potential forms of relief, and we'll work collaboratively with all stakeholders on a long-term solution. So that basically sums up some of the history and where we stand at the site at San Ciprian today.
因此,此時,您可能想知道解決方案的時間表。目前時間尚不清楚,但我們要求工會了解情況並採取必要的彈性來達成解決方案。同樣,我們正在與地區和國家政府合作,以確定所有潛在的救濟形式,並將與所有利益相關者合作制定長期解決方案。這基本上總結了一些歷史以及我們今天在聖西普里安遺址所處的位置。
Michael Stephan Dudas - Partner
Michael Stephan Dudas - Partner
That's very helpful. My follow-up is maybe more thoughts on your near-term actions on your EBITDA potential slide and the $310 million of the raw materials and the views of the market, maybe in the sense that are those expectations relative to expectations of the current or future market for alumina and aluminum. You say 1/3 is in the bag so far but how confident to realize those others? And is that on an annualized basis, over the next 2-year basis? And is that a level where you could maybe see better performance in a more improved pricing market? I mean a sound price market, rather.
這非常有幫助。我的後續可能更多地思考您對 EBITDA 潛在下滑的近期行動以及 3.1 億美元的原材料以及市場的看法,也許從某種意義上說,這些預期是相對於當前或未來的預期氧化鋁和鋁市場。你說到目前為止 1/3 已經成功,但有多大信心去實現其他的呢?是在未來兩年的年化基礎上嗎?在這個水平上,您是否可以在定價市場更加改善的情況下看到更好的表現?我指的是一個健全的價格市場。
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Mike, thanks for the question. The raw material improvement that we are showing, the $310 million, is our outlook for 2024. Now it's based on prices that we've already achieved, given our lags that we incurred in the second half of '23 as well as what we're seeing now in current purchases as well as our procurement teams look forward. So yes, we have about 1/3 of that already confirmed and good outlook for achieving the $310 million in '24, and that is an annual run rate. So we would expect that to continue forward based on today's market view.
麥克,謝謝你的提問。我們展示的原材料改進,即 3.1 億美元,是我們對 2024 年的展望。現在它是基於我們已經實現的價格,考慮到我們在 23 年下半年發生的滯後以及我們的我們現在看到的是當前的採購以及我們的採購團隊的期待。所以,是的,我們大約有 1/3 已經確認,並且在 24 年實現 3.1 億美元的前景良好,這是年度運行率。因此,根據今天的市場觀點,我們預計這種情況將持續下去。
Operator
Operator
And our next question comes from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.
我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
So just also on the other business considerations, just to clarify, the $36 million reversal for IRA, you're going to give back the $36 million in total or only a part of that given that the benefit of the IRA should be recurrent going forward?
因此,就其他商業考慮而言,只是為了澄清一下,IRA 的 3600 萬美元逆轉,您將總共退還 3600 萬美元,或者只退還其中的一部分,因為 IRA 的福利應該是經常性的。 ?
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Carlos, what you're going to see there is a net of $27 million in the first quarter. So the $37 million we recognized the full year '23, and then we'll have about $10 million in each quarter going through '24.
卡洛斯,你會看到第一季淨收入為 2700 萬美元。因此,我們在 23 年全年確認了 3700 萬美元,然後在 24 年每個季度我們將獲得約 1000 萬美元。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Great. And just on San Ciprian then, at this point, Bill, you are not going to restart the small capacity that was supposed to come up in the first quarter of 2024. Is that correct?
偉大的。就在聖西普里安,比爾,此時此刻,您不會重啟本應在 2024 年第一季啟動的小產能。這是正確的嗎?
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Well, we plan to fulfill the viability agreement. And part of the viability agreement is that we restart 32 pots in the first quarter. However, it does not make economic sense to restart those pots. And the more that we -- if we were to restart those pots, they are negative cash flow, and it will just simply consume cash out of the entities quicker than if we were not restarting those pots. So at this point, we will be having the discussions with all the parties involved and make sure they understand that starting those pots will consume cash, and there is only a limited amount of cash available in the entities. And once that cash is gone, Alcoa does not plan to put further cash into the entities.
好吧,我們計劃履行可行性協議。可行性協議的一部分是我們在第一季重新啟動 32 場比賽。然而,重啟這些項目並沒有經濟意義。如果我們重新啟動這些資金,它們就會產生負現金流,而且它只會比我們不重新啟動這些資金更快地消耗實體中的現金。因此,在這一點上,我們將與所有相關方進行討論,並確保他們明白啟動這些資金會消耗現金,而實體中可用的現金數量有限。一旦現金用完,美國鋁業公司就不打算向這些實體投入更多現金。
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Carlos De Alba - Equity Analyst
Fair enough. If I may, I'll just squeeze one more. The $70 million benefit from the closure of Kwinana starting in the third quarter, are those net of the purchases that you have to make in the market to fulfill your customer contracts?
很公平。如果可以的話,我會再擠一個。從第三季開始關閉 Kwinana 帶來的 7000 萬美元收益是扣除您為履行客戶合約而必須在市場上進行的採購的嗎?
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
So Carlos, the $70 million is the Kwinana loss elimination. We will have some costs to replace -- basically purchase the committed alumina for customers. That's part of our overall trading activity, and we do not see a material impact there.
所以卡洛斯,這 7000 萬美元是奎納納損失消除。我們將有一些成本來替換——基本上是為客戶購買承諾的氧化鋁。這是我們整體交易活動的一部分,我們認為這不會產生實質影響。
Operator
Operator
Our next question today comes from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets.
今天我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Katja Jancic。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Can you quickly provide an update on the Alumar smelter restart?
您能否快速提供有關 Alumar 冶煉廠重啟的最新消息?
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Yes. So as we said, in the fourth quarter, we are taking the Alumar smelter restart slowly and at a measured pace. We have increased the amount of pots operating, as of today, to approximately 70% of the plant, and we're making slow but good progress on restarting the smelter. So while I would wish it was faster, we want to do it safely, we want to do it economically, and we want to do it in a way that positions the asset for the long term, and so we continue to make progress.
是的。正如我們所說,在第四季度,我們將緩慢而有節奏地重啟 Alumar 冶煉廠。截至目前,我們已將工廠運作的電解槽數量增加至約 70%,並且我們在重啟冶煉廠方面取得了緩慢但良好的進展。因此,雖然我希望速度更快,但我們希望安全地做到這一點,我們希望經濟地做到這一點,並且我們希望以一種能夠長期定位資產的方式做到這一點,因此我們繼續取得進展。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
And is the $75 million, is that expected to also occur in '24, the benefit?
預計 24 年也會出現 7,500 萬美元的收益嗎?
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Yes. Katja, you will see the $74 million (sic) [$75 million] come in over time. So that would be a run rate by the time we get to the end of '25.
是的。 Katja,隨著時間的推移,您會看到 7400 萬美元(原文如此)[7500 萬美元] 的收入。所以這將是我們到 25 年底時的運行率。
Katja Jancic - Analyst
Katja Jancic - Analyst
And just one more question, if I may. Going back to San Ciprian, are there specific reasons why you can't just shut it down now?
如果可以的話,還有一個問題。回到聖西普里安,是否有具體原因導致您現在不能關閉它?
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
The smelter, as you know, obviously, is curtailed today. The refinery is at 50% capacity. If we chose to go to a full curtailment, we would have to go through the process of negotiating with the unions on a curtailment and that may be a consideration. We'll be looking at all options at this point to conserve cash out of that entity.
如您所知,冶煉廠今天顯然已停產。煉油廠產能利用率為 50%。如果我們選擇全面削減,我們必須經歷與工會就削減問題進行談判的過程,這可能是個考慮因素。此時我們將考慮所有選項以節省該實體的現金。
Operator
Operator
And our next question today comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.
今天我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Timna Tanners。
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Wanted to ask about the comment on ELYSIS and how there wasn't any required spending till the end of the decade. I didn't know if that was a change from the past. I thought, at your last Investor Day, you've been able to talk of ELYSIS Australia Refinery, the future investments, and I was just wondering if you could provide us an update on that broadly.
想詢問對 ELYSIS 的評論以及如何在本世紀末之前沒有任何必需的支出。我不知道這是否與過去相比有所改變。我想,在上一次投資者日,您已經能夠談論 ELYSIS 澳洲煉油廠以及未來的投資,我只是想知道您是否可以向我們提供有關這方面的最新情況。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
So I'll take a first cut at that. And then Molly, you can jump in if you want to add anything. Timna, we continue to make progress with our partners and ELYSIS on the process. And we have plans to start a commercial-size cell at the Alumar smelter in Quebec in 2024. So we are continuing to make progress. However, we are not planning on an implementation in the near term of ELYSIS. We're going to allow for ELYSIS to go through some of the testing process and ensure that we have the right package of engineering. And so at this point, we're not planning on significant investments in ELYSIS cutover or an ELYSIS plant this part in this decade. So it would be earlier next decade. Is that a change? It's an R&D project, and we're working through that R&D and ensuring that the process works well. And we'll implement it later in the decade, early next decade.
所以我會先做這個。然後莫莉,如果你想添加任何內容,你可以加入。 Timna,我們繼續與我們的合作夥伴和 ELYSIS 一起在流程上取得進展。我們計劃於 2024 年在魁北克省的 Alumar 冶煉廠啟動商業規模的電解槽。因此,我們正在繼續取得進展。然而,我們不打算在短期內實施 ELYSIS。我們將允許 ELYSIS 完成一些測試流程,並確保我們擁有正確的工程套件。因此,目前我們不打算在這十年內對 ELYSIS 割接或 ELYSIS 工廠進行大量投資。所以那會是下一個十年的早期。這是一個改變嗎?這是一個研發項目,我們正在完成該研發並確保流程運作良好。我們將在本世紀末、下個十年初實施它。
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Timna Beth Tanners - MD of Equity Research
Okay. And then regarding possible other portfolio changes, I know you've talked about Lista in the past. At these aluminum prices, any thinking about its viability? And similarly, anything that you could tweak beyond the Warrick restart given the 45X benefit?
好的。關於可能的其他投資組合變化,我知道您過去曾談論過 Lista。在目前的鋁價下,有沒有考慮過它的可行性?同樣,考慮到 45 倍的好處,除了 Warrick 重啟之外,您還可以進行哪些調整?
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Well, to give you a little bit of perspective of some of the things that we've had going on, we mentioned the Warrick restart, and so we got half of that done in the fourth quarter. I plan on getting the other half of that done in the first quarter. We've made the announcement around Kwinana. So that will be in 2024. We continue to make progress around Alumar, and so we have that restart going on. And we have engagement on all the pertinent issues in Spain, and so we have that going on. At this point, Timna, that's a lot to get done. And I think the team has done a great job of initiating all of that. We will consider, as we always do, asset by asset, it doesn't make sense to start-stop all of those options. And we make it on a fairly real-time basis. And where we have spot power exposure, we make those decisions on a real-time basis. So we're always considering some of those portfolio options, specifically around high-cost facilities like Lista.
好吧,為了讓您對我們正在進行的一些事情有一些了解,我們提到了沃里克的重啟,所以我們在第四季度完成了一半的工作。我計劃在第一季完成另一半工作。我們已經在奎納納周圍宣布了這一消息。那將是 2024 年。我們將繼續圍繞 Alumar 取得進展,因此我們將重新開始。我們就西班牙的所有相關問題進行了接觸,所以我們正在這樣做。在這一點上,蒂姆納,還有很多事情要做。我認為團隊在發起這一切方面做得很好。我們將一如既往地逐項考慮資產,啟動停止所有這些選項是沒有意義的。我們是在相當實時的基礎上完成的。當我們有現貨電力曝光時,我們會即時做出這些決定。因此,我們一直在考慮其中一些投資組合選擇,特別是圍繞 Lista 這樣的高成本設施。
Operator
Operator
And our next question today comes from John Tumazos with Tumazos Very Independent Research.
今天我們的下一個問題來自圖馬佐斯非常獨立研究中心的約翰‧圖馬佐斯。
John Charles Tumazos - President and CEO
John Charles Tumazos - President and CEO
Congratulations on getting through the tough year and cutting costs so much.
恭喜您度過了艱難的一年並大幅削減了成本。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, John.
謝謝,約翰。
John Charles Tumazos - President and CEO
John Charles Tumazos - President and CEO
First question, and I'm not sure if I'm supposed to ask this question but I'll try, you're planning to buy almost 3 million tonnes of alumina this year, which is a lot of boatloads, where are you buying it? China's 59% of world output, you're around 5%. So there aren't that many choices. Are you buying it from China or some Western country complying with sanctions that has some capacity that would have gone to Rusal in the old days.
第一個問題,我不確定我是否應該問這個問題,但我會嘗試一下,您今年計劃購買近 300 萬噸氧化鋁,這是很多船的負載,您在哪裡購買它?中國產量佔世界產量的59%,而你們只佔5%左右。所以沒有那麼多選擇。你是從中國還是從某些遵守制裁的西方國家購買的,這些國家的一些能力在過去應該屬於俄羅斯鋁業公司。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
John, to give you a little bit of background, it is not unusual for us to be in the market to buy alumina. In past years, I think in 2023, we probably did about 2 million metric tonnes. As you see, with the curtailment of Kwinana, that's increasing to about 3 million metric tonnes. We have an alumina trading arm, and I don't want to make that sound as if we're doing any type of prop trading, but we have an alumina trading arm that is constantly sitting there trying to optimize logistics and optimize tonnes and quality across the system. And where will we get that? We have already agreed with certain suppliers that we will have offtake in 2024. And those suppliers run the gamut of Western world suppliers, Indonesian traders. And as we go through 2024, we'll do more of that.
約翰,請為您介紹一下背景知識,我們在市場上購買氧化鋁並不罕見。在過去的幾年裡,我認為到 2023 年,我們的產量可能約為 200 萬噸。如您所見,隨著奎納納的削減,這一數字將增加至約 300 萬噸。我們有一個氧化鋁貿易部門,我不想讓這聽起來像是我們在進行任何類型的自營交易,但我們有一個氧化鋁貿易部門,它一直坐在那裡試圖優化物流並優化噸數和質量整個系統。我們從哪裡得到它?我們已經與某些供應商達成協議,我們將在 2024 年承購。這些供應商包括西方世界供應商、印尼貿易商。到 2024 年,我們將做更多這樣的事。
John Charles Tumazos - President and CEO
John Charles Tumazos - President and CEO
If I could ask another one, you've designated your Chief Operating Officer to be in Australia. Over most of my career, the raw materials have been a big cash cow and the market's a little tougher now. Is the division of labor for Mr. Reed to be primarily raw materials and you're focusing on the smelters, Bill? And is this signal that we're going to be paying very close attention to the environmental permitting and regulatory issues as well as operations in Australia?
如果我可以問另一個問題,您已指定您的營運長在澳洲。在我職業生涯的大部分時間裡,原材料一直是一個巨大的搖錢樹,而現在的市場有點艱難。里德先生的分工是否主要是原料,而您則專注於冶煉廠,比爾?這是否表明我們將非常密切關注澳洲的環境許可和監管問題以及營運?
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Thanks for the question, John. So let me just back up a little bit, Matt Reed was chosen to be COO because he's the best person for the job, in my view. And the fact that he sits in Western Australia is a little bit of a benefit because we do have such a massive operations in Western Australia. To specifically address your question of whether I'll be focused on the smelters and he'll be focused on mining and refining, no. Matt has an agreement for all operations globally. It's a big job. It will be a hard job to do out of Western Australia, and I have had that discussion, but I think he's the right person for the job.
謝謝你的提問,約翰。所以讓我稍微支持一下,馬特·里德被選為首席營運官,因為在我看來,他是這項工作的最佳人選。他位於西澳大利亞州這一事實有一點好處,因為我們在西澳大利亞州確實有如此大規模的業務。具體回答你的問題,即我是否會專注於冶煉廠,而他是否會專注於採礦和精煉,答案是否定的。馬特簽署了全球所有營運協議。這是一項艱鉅的工作。在西澳大利亞,這將是一項艱鉅的工作,我已經進行過討論,但我認為他是這份工作的合適人選。
And now with that said, he has 4 regional vice presidents that sit underneath him. And he used to be one of them, obviously, in Australia, so he has to replace himself. They're very good people, very capable people, who have the ability to make decisions in the regions to benefit the regions. And that's important because as we saw in the permitting process, it is critically important to have really strong local leadership in the regions that can make decisions that make sure that the permitting is done correctly, that the rehab is done correctly, that the ESG factors are appropriately considered in the regions. Sometimes it's hard for a global player to have that perspective. That's why you have to have strong leadership in the regions, and Matt will ensure that he has 4 strong leaders around the world.
話雖如此,他手下還有 4 位地區副總裁。顯然,他曾經是澳洲的其中一員,所以他必須取代自己。他們是非常好的人,非常有能力的人,有能力在該地區做出決策,使該地區受益。這很重要,因為正如我們在許可過程中看到的那樣,在該地區擁有真正強大的地方領導力至關重要,他們可以做出決策,確保正確地進行許可、正確地進行修復、ESG 因素各地區均予以適當考慮。有時,全球參與者很難擁有這樣的視角。這就是為什麼你必須在各個地區擁有強大的領導力,而馬特將確保他在全球擁有 4 位強有力的領導者。
Operator
Operator
And our next question today comes from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.
今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的比爾彼得森。
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
I wanted to come back to the near-term $245 million and how to think about the cadence. It sounds like some visibility in raw materials, maybe 1/3 of that -- pardon me, I'm in the airport. But what else do you have visibility? Do you see that most of this has been back half weighted more into '25 based off of the other buckets that are within that, just to sort of get a feel for the rollout of this over the next 12 to 24 months.
我想回到近期的 2.45 億美元以及如何考慮節奏。聽起來原料有些可見度,也許是其中的 1/3——請原諒,我在機場。但你還有什麼可見性呢?您是否看到,其中大部分已在 25 年中根據其中的其他部分進行了一半加權,只是為了了解未來 12 到 24 個月內推出的情況。
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Yes, Bill, I think it's fair to say that there is various timing on those items, but they are, again, designed to deliver a run rate savings by the end of '25. On the raw materials, we did indicate that's a '24 number. That's an annual number that will repeat on the productivity and competitive programs. We're trying to hit a run rate by the end of the first quarter of '25 on Warrick optimization. And the IRA funding, that one will kind of bleed in over time as Warrick gains momentum from the restart. And we are working actively with treasury and other folks in the government on the funding improvements. Alumar will come in over time as well, and then Kwinana will start to be realized in the second half of '24.
是的,比爾,我認為可以公平地說,這些項目有不同的時間安排,但它們再次被設計為在 25 年底之前實現運行率節省。在原材料上,我們確實表明這是 '24 號碼。這個每年的數字都會在生產力和競爭計劃上重複出現。我們試圖在 25 年第一季末之前達到 Warrick 優化的運行率。隨著沃里克從重啟中獲得動力,愛爾蘭共和軍的資金將隨著時間的推移而逐漸增加。我們正在與財政部和政府其他人員積極合作,改善融資問題。隨著時間的推移,Alumar 也會加入進來,然後 Kwinana 將在 24 年下半年開始實現。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
And Bill, I really have to give kudos to Molly and her team and Jim Dwyer. Many of the investors have been asking us, "Hey, there's lots of moving parts here. Can you help us understand what those moving parts look like and how good can things be if you accomplish those moving parts?" And so that's the point of this slide. It basically says our view of raw materials is going to be $300 million better. We're actually instituting, and we haven't talked much about it on this call, but we're instituting what we're calling a competitiveness program where we're trying to get 5% of the cost structure, aside from raw materials and energy out of the cost structure, and it's at every single plant, mine, refinery, around the world. So this chart was meant to be a reaction to investors that said, "Help us understand, with all these moving pieces, what can it look like?" And that's why we put it together.
比爾,我真的要向莫莉和她的團隊以及吉姆·德懷爾表示敬意。許多投資者一直在問我們:“嘿,這裡有很多活動部件。你能幫助我們了解這些活動部件是什麼樣子的嗎?如果你完成了這些活動部件,事情會有多好?”這就是這張投影片的重點。它基本上表明我們對原材料的看法將會好轉 3 億美元。我們實際上正在製定,在這次電話會議上我們沒有太多談論它,但我們正在製定我們所說的競爭力計劃,除了原材料之外,我們試圖獲得 5% 的成本結構成本結構中的能源和能源,遍布世界各地的每一個工廠、礦場、煉油廠。因此,這張圖表是對投資者的反應,他們說:“幫助我們理解,有了所有這些移動的部分,它會是什麼樣子?”這就是我們將其放在一起的原因。
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
William Chapman Peterson - Analyst
No, I can appreciate that. Just the cadence is particularly an important addition to that. Second question, kind of a follow-up on your lower carbon solution, and I appreciate that ELYSIS looks more like next decade, but what about, I guess, the Sustana line? You gave some talk in the past in the EcoLum, EcoSource, EcoDura, how should we think about those programs, the ability for you to drive premiums? And where does I guess, lower carbon aluminum just fit more broadly in your strategies for Alcoa as well as your customers?
不,我很欣賞這一點。節奏是對此特別重要的補充。第二個問題,有點像你的低碳解決方案的後續,我很欣賞 ELYSIS 看起來更像下一個十年,但我猜 Sustana 系列怎麼樣?您過去在 EcoLum、EcoSource、EcoDura 上做過一些演講,我們應該如何看待這些計劃以及您推動保費的能力?我猜低碳鋁在哪裡更廣泛地適合您對美鋁以及您的客戶的策略?
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
I made some comments at the Future Minerals Forum in Saudi Arabia last week, and I'll reiterate those here, our customers are asking for low-carbon solutions. And we, and some of our competitors, are developing those low-carbon solutions. We have the broadest line of low-carbon solutions of anybody out there, between EcoLum, EcoDura, EcoSource. We offer low-carbon solutions today that our customers can take advantage of. We've seen a fairly sizable growth of EcoLum year-over-year, something like a 60% increase in sales in EcoLum. Are we getting premiums? Small ones, right? And I would like to get a whole lot more premium than what we get. But today, we are getting premiums for EcoLum across the system. And so our customers want it. We need to be on the forefront. ELYSIS in Australia going into the next decade will provide us significant advantages, but we're starting to see some of the benefits of selling that broad product line today.
我上週在沙烏地阿拉伯舉行的未來礦產論壇上發表了一些評論,我將在這裡重申,我們的客戶正在尋求低碳解決方案。我們和我們的一些競爭對手正在開發這些低碳解決方案。我們擁有最廣泛的低碳解決方案系列,包括 EcoLum、EcoDura、EcoSource。今天,我們提供可供客戶利用的低碳解決方案。我們看到 EcoLum 的同比增長相當可觀,例如 EcoLum 的銷售額增長了 60%。我們得到保費嗎?小的,對吧?我希望得到比我們得到的更多的溢價。但今天,我們在整個系統中獲得了 EcoLum 的溢價。所以我們的客戶想要它。我們需要走在最前線。進入下一個十年,澳洲的 ELYSIS 將為我們提供顯著的優勢,但我們今天開始看到銷售這條廣泛產品線的一些好處。
Operator
Operator
And our next question today comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.
今天我們的下一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Lucas Pipes。
Lucas Nathaniel Pipes - MD, Senior VP & Equity Analyst
Lucas Nathaniel Pipes - MD, Senior VP & Equity Analyst
I wanted to follow up on San Ciprian. You mentioned that internal funding sources and lines are close to being exhausted. And I wondered, the status quo, is this a matter of weeks, months, quarters? When would those lines be fully exhausted?
我想跟進聖西普里安的情況。您提到內部資金來源和額度已接近耗盡。我想知道,就現狀而言,這只是幾週、幾個月、幾季的問題嗎?這些線路什麼時候才能完全用完?
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
I hate to give you a definitive time, but I can quantify it a little bit for you. There is roughly $240 million of a combination of restricted cash in the entities and credit lines available. The entities lost, on a pretax basis, about $150 million in 2023. So we are essentially sitting down with the stakeholders, trying to determine how can we preserve the cash in the entity to give that facility long enough time to come up with a plan to be viable over time. So there's not any specific, at this point, something as far as I'm willing to go out and say when that cash will run out. But it is a situation where there is limited cash available, and we need to figure out how to get that facility viable over time.
我不想給你一個明確的時間,但我可以為你量化。實體中的限制性現金和可用信貸額度總計約為 2.4 億美元。以稅前計算,這些實體在2023 年損失了約1.5 億美元。因此,我們實際上是在與利益相關者坐下來,試圖確定如何保留實體中的現金,以便為該機構提供足夠長的時間來制定計劃隨著時間的推移是可行的。因此,目前還沒有任何具體的事情,我願意出去說現金何時會用完。但在這種情況下,可用現金有限,我們需要弄清楚如何使設施隨著時間的推移變得可行。
Lucas Nathaniel Pipes - MD, Senior VP & Equity Analyst
Lucas Nathaniel Pipes - MD, Senior VP & Equity Analyst
Very helpful. And I understand if you were to restart those $240 million of restricted cash and credit lines, that would be exhausted very quickly.
很有幫助。我知道如果你要重新啟動這 2.4 億美元的受限現金和信貸額度,這些資金很快就會耗盡。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
So if we were to restart the 32 pots, it just adds to the drain. Now we have a viability agreement that we plan on fulfilling, but if we do that, then it just accelerates the drain of cash. And that's a situation where everybody loses.
因此,如果我們重新啟動 32 個罐子,只會增加排水量。現在我們已經有了一個計劃履行的可行性協議,但如果我們這樣做,只會加速現金的流失。在這種情況下,每個人都會失敗。
Lucas Nathaniel Pipes - MD, Senior VP & Equity Analyst
Lucas Nathaniel Pipes - MD, Senior VP & Equity Analyst
Two quick follow-up questions, the first is on 45X. Does that change how you think about the U.S. assets more structurally? Where would you say they fit within your smelter portfolio today? And where do you think they are on the global cost curve after this credit? And then on the environmental ARO, I think kind of cash outflows went from $139 million in 2022 to $202 million last year; and then this year, $295 million. Are those inflationary pressures? Is there something lumpy? And where do you think that cash item will go over the coming years?
兩個快速跟進問題,第一個是關於 45X 的。這是否會從結構上改變您對美國資產的看法?您認為它們在您今天的冶煉廠產品組合中處於什麼位置?您認為在獲得此信貸後,它們在全球成本曲線上處於什麼位置?然後在環境 ARO 方面,我認為現金流出從 2022 年的 1.39 億美元增加到去年的 2.02 億美元;今年則達 2.95 億美元。這些是通膨壓力嗎?有沒有塊狀的東西?您認為未來幾年現金項目將走向何方?
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Let me take the U.S. question first. Just it's important to note how appreciative we are to the U.S. government for providing the clarity around 45X and the fact that those funds essentially support keeping aluminum, which, in our view, is a critical mineral for the United States economy, keeping those assets running.
我先回答美國問題。值得注意的是,我們非常感謝美國政府提供 45X 的明確訊息,以及這些資金基本上支持保留鋁的事實,在我們看來,鋁是美國經濟的重要礦物,可以維持這些資產的運作。
Warrick, as we've said, we're investing in Warrick to restart the third line. The 45X clearly helps, and we have plans to make Warrick even more profitable over time. Now Warrick, in the future, needs to figure out what its energy source is going to be. Its energy source is still coal-based. And if we're going to meet our greenhouse gas targets, we will have to transition that to a sustainable energy. But that's a problem that we have some time to work on. Massena, on the other hand, it's renewable energy. It's got a great energy source. And now with the 45X support, it's a better facility. So we're pretty pleased with the level of support that we've gotten.
沃里克,正如我們所說,我們投資沃里克是為了重啟第三條生產線。 45X 顯然有幫助,我們計劃隨著時間的推移讓 Warrick 獲得更多利潤。現在,沃里克在未來需要弄清楚它的能源是什麼。其能源仍以煤炭為主。如果我們要實現溫室氣體排放目標,我們就必須將其轉變為永續能源。但這是我們需要一些時間來解決的問題。另一方面,馬塞納是可再生能源。它有一個巨大的能源。現在有了 45X 支持,這是一個更好的設施。因此,我們對所獲得的支持程度感到非常滿意。
We're trying to get further clarity around 45X to include the raw material sources, and that's included in that $90 million benefit that you see, but we'll continue to work on that.
我們正在努力進一步明確 45X 左右的情況,以包括原材料來源,這已包含在您看到的 9000 萬美元的收益中,但我們將繼續努力解決這一問題。
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
On the environmental and remediation cash increase, so it's about $95 million, and there's 3 main components there. We are accelerating mine rehabilitation primarily in Australia but also a bit in Brazil. We've got residue areas coming to end of life as well as Kwinana water treatment. And then lastly, we are upping our spend on demolition because we have closed properties that are getting ready for redevelopment.
環境和修復方面的現金增加約為 9500 萬美元,其中有 3 個主要組成部分。我們主要在澳洲加速礦場恢復,在巴西也有一些進展。我們的殘留區域以及奎納納水處理設施都即將報廢。最後,我們正在增加拆除支出,因為我們已經關閉了準備重新開發的房產。
Lucas Nathaniel Pipes - MD, Senior VP & Equity Analyst
Lucas Nathaniel Pipes - MD, Senior VP & Equity Analyst
And looking forward on a "more normalized" basis, where could that number settle out given those developments?
在展望「更加正常化」的基礎上,考慮到這些事態發展,這個數字會在哪裡解決?
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
This is a lumpy one because of, again, the demolition, that we have opportunities. So that's why we want to get that done. And also on the mine rehab, you can think of that as really a 3-, 3.5-year up because we are accelerating the Brazil as part of our commitment for the mine approval.
這是一個崎嶇不平的問題,因為,再次,拆除,我們有機會。這就是我們想要完成這項工作的原因。在礦山修復方面,你可以認為這實際上是 3、3.5 年的增長,因為我們正在加速巴西的建設,作為我們礦山審批承諾的一部分。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Western Australia.
澳洲西部。
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Sorry, yes.
抱歉,是的。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
You said Brazil, so we are accelerating Brazil, too, because of external stakeholders, but Western Australia.
你說的是巴西,所以我們也在加速巴西,因為外部利害關係人,但西澳大利亞。
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Western Australia. Thank you.
澳洲西部。謝謝。
Lucas Nathaniel Pipes - MD, Senior VP & Equity Analyst
Lucas Nathaniel Pipes - MD, Senior VP & Equity Analyst
Really appreciate all the color. Best of luck.
真的很欣賞所有的顏色。祝你好運。
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
And our next question today comes from Lawson Winder with Bank of America.
今天我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的勞森溫德。
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
I just wanted to ask on just one other capital allocation question and then on the dividend. And I don't know, maybe your slide on taking actions now might actually address my question, but just when you think about the dividend, would your recommendation be to the Board to change it in any way? Or are you comfortable with the current level?
我只想問另一個資本分配問題,然後問股息。我不知道,也許你現在採取行動的幻燈片可能實際上解決了我的問題,但當你考慮股息時,你會建議董事會以任何方式改變它嗎?或者你對目前的水平感到滿意嗎?
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Our capital allocation program really is not changing, Lawson. We're going to continue to maintain the strong balance sheet. We're going to make capital expenditures to maintain and improve our portfolio. And then when we have excess cash, in no particular order, we'll use it for portfolio actions, preparing for growth and returning cash to shareholders. The dividend is something that we speak carefully to the Board about and they would guide us with any changes there.
勞森,我們的資本配置計畫確實沒有改變。我們將繼續保持強勁的資產負債表。我們將進行資本支出來維持和改善我們的投資組合。然後,當我們有多餘的現金時,無論順序如何,我們都會將其用於投資組合行動,為成長做好準備並將現金返還給股東。我們會與董事會仔細討論股息問題,他們會指導我們進行任何更改。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
And remember, when we set the dividend, we set it at a level that we thought was very affordable through the cycle. It's not a huge dividend. But we set it at a time when our indebtedness -- our overall proportional net debt had gone from $3.8 billion down to $1.1 billion. It's crept up a little bit this year, but we set the dividend at a level that we thought was affordable through the cycle. And so that's the thinking.
請記住,當我們設定股息時,我們將其設定在我們認為在整個週期中非常實惠的水平。這不是一個巨大的股息。但我們設定這個時間的時候,我們的債務——我們的整體比例淨債務已經從 38 億美元下降到 11 億美元。今年略有上升,但我們將股息設定在我們認為整個週期可以承受的水平。這就是我們的想法。
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
Lawson Winder - VP & Research Analyst
Okay. Fantastic. And then if I could just maybe ask one more question on San Ciprian just to potentially get a little more clarity on what the path forward might be. But I mean, if those facilities run out. I mean does that imply then that, that subsidiary then we'll have to enter some sort of bankruptcy protection proceeding?
好的。極好的。然後我是否可以再問一個關於聖西普里安的問題,以便更清楚地了解前進的道路。但我的意思是,如果這些設施都用完了。我的意思是,這是否意味著我們的子公司將不得不進入某種破產保護程序?
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Lawson, at this point, I don't want to speculate what happens when and if they were to run out of cash. What the task for us currently is to work with the unions and the government to try to get that to be a viable operation. And that's what we're really focused on. We have a dedicated group of people who are working with the various stakeholders and constituents to make it viable.
勞森,在這一點上,我不想猜測當他們用完現金時會發生什麼。我們目前的任務是與工會和政府合作,努力使之成為可行的行動。這就是我們真正關注的重點。我們有一群專門的人員正在與各個利益相關者和選民合作,以使其可行。
Operator
Operator
And our final question today comes from Curtis Woodworth with UBS.
今天我們的最後一個問題來自瑞銀集團的柯蒂斯‧伍德沃斯。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Curtis, thanks for reinitiating coverage, but you did it at the wrong level, just to be clear.
柯蒂斯,感謝您重新啟動報道,但您在錯誤的層面上進行了報道,請澄清一下。
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Research Analyst
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Research Analyst
Well, let's dig into that a little bit.
好吧,讓我們深入探討一下。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Good. We can. We got a while, so we can dig in.
好的。我們可以。我們還有時間,所以我們可以深入研究。
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Research Analyst
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Research Analyst
Okay. So here's the question. So alumina is at $370 million, bauxite's up. You're saying you've got 1/3 of the way down on the $310 million raw materials. You're guiding to a tax expense in the first quarter of 0. So are you saying based on spot pricing for the first quarter, your earnings before tax is 0? Like, I would have thought that at $370 million alumina, you'd have some tax expense in AWAC. So how do I think about that?
好的。那麼問題來了。因此,氧化鋁價格為 3.7 億美元,鋁土礦價格上漲。您是說 3.1 億美元的原料已經減少了 1/3。您指導第一季的稅費為 0。那麼您是說根據第一季的現貨定價,您的稅前利潤為 0?就像,我以為 3.7 億美元的氧化鋁,你會在 AWAC 中產生一些稅收費用。那麼我對此有何看法呢?
And then, again, just kind of what's the cadence, I guess, as you see kind of the margin profile in the alumina segment? I know that you talked about trying to get costs down and mitigating some of the bauxite grade issues. But is there a glide path in the next several quarters where there's more meaningful margin recovery for a given alumina price point?
然後,我想,正如您所看到的氧化鋁領域的利潤概況,節奏是怎樣的?我知道您談到試圖降低成本並緩解一些鋁土礦品位問題。但在接下來的幾個季度中,對於給定的氧化鋁價格點,是否會出現一條下滑路徑,使利潤率更有意義的恢復?
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
So Curtis, let me take the tax part first. You've followed us for a while. You know as our income gets right around breakeven, predicting taxes is extremely difficult, looking at the jurisdictions where we're paying taxes versus those where we're fully reserved. So we are at that point where if we have a meaningful departure on tax, we'll have to give you an update.
柯蒂斯,讓我先談談稅收部分。你關注我們有一段時間了。您知道,隨著我們的收入接近收支平衡,預測稅收極其困難,需要考慮我們納稅的司法管轄區和完全保留的司法管轄區。因此,如果我們在稅收上有有意義的偏離,我們將不得不向您提供最新情況。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Let me address the second part of the question or maybe the theme of the question, Lawson (sic) [Curtis]. Part of the reason why we put the chart together that we've been very focused on here is that we made $500 million in EBITDA in 2023. Everybody can see that. And at the prices and raw material level in 2023, that's where we ended up. We have line of sight to near-term actions that are going to double that over the next, let's say, 2 years. And that's not banking on any type of a metal market or alumina market improvement. If you then factor in where we were way back in 2022, which was not that long ago on metal prices, you can see the earnings just really accelerate very, very quickly.
讓我談談問題的第二部分,或者也許是問題的主題,勞森(原文如此)[柯蒂斯]。我們將圖表放在一起的部分原因是我們在 2023 年實現了 5 億美元的 EBITDA。每個人都可以看到這一點。以 2023 年的價格和原料水平,這就是我們最終的結果。我們著眼於近期行動,這些行動將在未來(比如說兩年)內翻倍。這並不是指望任何類型的金屬市場或氧化鋁市場的改善。如果你考慮到我們早在 2022 年(就金屬價格而言並不是很久以前)的情況,你會發現盈利確實在非常非常快地加速。
So we at Alcoa aren't sitting here hoping for a market recovery. We're taking action. We're taking the hard actions, quite honestly. Kwinana is not an easy decision. Warrick is an easy decision but hard to accomplish safely and to do it effectively. Alumar, we're improving. We haven't even talked much about WA bauxite permits here. That is something that was a nontrivial task to get accomplished in the fourth quarter. And it's good to have that behind us. And then on top of that, we're going after $100 million of cost savings, and we're going to have that on a run rate basis by the first quarter of next year. So you can see that we are pulling every lever to take that $500 million to a much higher level and essentially prove your initial thesis incorrect.
因此,我們美鋁不會坐在這裡希望市場復甦。我們正在採取行動。老實說,我們正在採取強硬行動。奎納納不是一個容易的決定。沃里克是一個簡單的決定,但很難安全且有效地完成。阿盧馬爾,我們正在進步。我們在這裡甚至沒有過多談論西澳鋁土礦許可證。這是第四季要完成的一項艱鉅的任務。很高興能把它拋在身後。除此之外,我們還力求節省 1 億美元的成本,並且我們將在明年第一季之前以運行率為基礎實現這一目標。所以你可以看到,我們正在竭盡全力將這 5 億美元提升到一個更高的水平,並從根本上證明你最初的論點是錯誤的。
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Research Analyst
Curtis Rogers Woodworth - Research Analyst
Okay. And what do you think cash restructuring could theoretically look like? Like, in the event that you -- because I think you had a comment in November that underperforming assets were $90 million negative EBITDA quarterly, right? So San Ciprian's maybe 40% of that. Kwinana is 70%. But you still have other buckets at play to deal with. So I guess, do you expect more restructuring? And can you size potential like cash restructuring needs for the business? And then just lastly, in terms of North Myara and getting the permit for the next phase, when do you expect that to happen? Because I think there was a view that it could be concomitant with what you're trying to do with your existing permit.
好的。您認為現金重組理論上會是什麼樣子?就像,如果您 - 因為我認為您在 11 月發表評論稱,表現不佳的資產每季度 EBITDA 為負 9000 萬美元,對吧?聖西普里安可能佔其中的 40%。奎納納是70%。但您還有其他事情需要處理。所以我想,您是否期望更多的重組?您能否評估業務的現金重組需求等潛力?最後,就北邁拉和獲得下一階段的許可證而言,您預計什麼時候會發生?因為我認為有人認為它可能與你試圖用現有許可證做的事情同時進行。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
So on the permitting, we are going through a Part 4 permitting process in Western Australia. That takes time. And we are saying that we won't be into North Myara until at least 2027. As far as any potential further restructuring, and I'm going to let Molly answer it from a quantitative perspective, when we talk about our financially troubled operations, there are still ones in there that we are really challenging to be more cost competitive. Lista, we talked about earlier in this call. Warrick, we have a plan to get there. Portland, it has been repowered and is currently starting some small marginal capacity in a couple of pots at a time, but that adds marginal EBITDA. So that's the actions that we're taking to address those remaining financially troubled operations.
因此,在許可方面,我們正在西澳大利亞州辦理第 4 部分許可程序。這需要時間。我們說我們至少要到 2027 年才會進入北邁拉。至於任何潛在的進一步重組,當我們談論我們陷入財務困境的業務時,我將讓莫莉從定量的角度回答這個問題,仍然有一些我們真正需要提高成本競爭力的挑戰。 Lista,我們之前在這次電話會議中談到過。沃里克,我們有一個到達那裡的計劃。波特蘭,它已經重新供電,目前一次在幾個罐子中啟動一些小邊際產能,但這增加了邊際 EBITDA。這就是我們為解決那些仍有財務問題的業務所採取的行動。
Any comment from you on cash restructuring?
您對現金重組有何評論?
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
It is too early to have a number for San Ciprian. Obviously, we're working toward a solution there, but there's potential -- no numbers yet.
現在確定聖西普里安的電話號碼還為時過早。顯然,我們正在努力尋找解決方案,但有潛力——目前還沒有數字。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
But Curtis, thanks for coming back to following us. Appreciate it.
但是柯蒂斯,感謝您回來關注我們。欣賞它。
Operator
Operator
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Oplinger for any closing remarks.
我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回奧普林格先生發表閉幕詞。
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
William F. Oplinger - President, CEO & Director
Thanks, Rocco, for hosting the call for us. And thanks again to all who joined our call. We're excited about our initiatives, as you can hear from our voices, including the work to address key challenges and drive improvements. I think we made a lot of progress over the last 90 days. There's an energy and enthusiasm within the company that's driving toward solving many of these near-term and midterm problems, and we are really going after it.
感謝 Rocco 為我們主持這次電話會議。再次感謝所有加入我們電話會議的人。我們對我們的舉措感到興奮,您可以從我們的聲音中聽到這一點,包括解決關鍵挑戰和推動改進的工作。我認為過去 90 天我們取得了很大進展。公司內部充滿活力和熱情,推動解決許多近期和中期問題,我們正在真正追求這一目標。
Molly and I look forward to speaking with you next time. And until that time, be safe. Thank you.
莫莉和我期待下次與您交談。在那之前,請注意安全。謝謝。
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Molly S. Beerman - Executive VP & CFO
Thank you.
謝謝。
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The conference has now concluded. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful evening.
謝謝。會議現已結束。我們感謝大家參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開線路,度過一個美好的夜晚。