美國鋁公司 (AA) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation fourth quarter and full-year 2024 earnings presentation and conference call.

下午好，歡迎參加美國鋁業公司 2024 年第四季和全年財報和電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

（操作員指示）請注意，此事件正在記錄中。

I would now like to turn the conference over to Louis Langlois, Senior Vice President of Treasury & Capital Markets.

現在，我想將會議交給財政與資本市場資深副總裁 Louis Langlois。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you, and good day, everyone.

謝謝大家，祝大家有美好的一天。

I'm joined today by William Oplinger, Alcoa Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer; and Molly Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起出席的還有美國鋁業公司總裁兼執行長威廉‧奧普林格 (William Oplinger)；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Molly Beerman。

We will take your questions after comments by Bill and Molly.

我們將在比爾和莫莉發表評論後回答您的問題。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與未來事件和預期有關的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受各種假設和警告的影響。

Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings.

今天的簡報和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中都包含了可能導致公司實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異的因素。

In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation.

此外，我們在本報告中也納入了一些非公認會計準則財務指標。

For historical non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation.

對於歷史非 GAAP 財務指標，可以在今天簡報的附錄中找到與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的對帳。

We have not presented quantitative reconciliations of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures for reasons noted on this slide.

由於本投影片中所述的原因，我們並未提供某些前瞻性非 GAAP 財務指標的定量對帳。

Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA.

我們今天討論中提到的 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA。

Finally, as previously announced, the earnings press release and slide presentation are available on our website.

最後，正如先前宣布的那樣，收益新聞稿和幻燈片演示可在我們的網站上查閱。

Now I'd like to turn over the call to Bill.

現在我想把電話轉給比爾。

Thank you, Louis, and welcome, everyone, to our fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

謝謝路易斯，歡迎大家參加我們 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

Today, we'll review the substantial progress we made during 2024 on key objectives, substantial results, the market, and our plans to continue to improve and strengthen our company in 2025.

今天，我們將回顧 2024 年在關鍵目標、實質成果、市場方面取得的重大進展，以及我們在 2025 年繼續改善和加強公司的計畫。

Let's start with a recap of 2024.

讓我們先回顧一下 2024 年。

I'm very pleased that we had no fatalities or life-altering injuries and improved our key safety metrics.

我很高興我們沒有發生人員死亡或重大傷害，並且改善了我們的關鍵安全指標。

We successfully operated under our new mine conditions in Western Australia, which included daily observation of our mining and rehabilitation practices by certain regulators.

我們在西澳大利亞新的礦山條件下成功運營，其中包括某些監管機構每天觀察我們的採礦和修復實踐。

9 of our 11 smelters increased annual production, with 5 achieving annual production records.

旗下 11 家冶煉廠中有 9 家實現了年度產量成長，其中 5 家創下了年度產量最高紀錄。

On the people side, we onboarded and integrated new talent in several critical roles and promoted a culture that prioritizes high performance and continuous improvement.

在人才方面，我們在幾個關鍵職位上吸收並整合了新的人才，並提倡一種注重高績效和持續改進的文化。

Commercially, we expanded a number of important customer and supplier relationships and invested in growth CapEx to enhance value-add products needed by our customers to meet their manufacturing and sales objectives.

在商業方面，我們擴大了許多重要的客戶和供應商關係，並投資於成長資本支出，以增強客戶所需的增值產品，滿足他們的製造和銷售目標。

In our sustainable line of products, we announced our first sales of EcoSource non-metallurgical alumina, and our low-carbon EcoLum primary aluminum now makes up half of our sales of metal in Europe.

在我們的永續產品系列中，我們宣布首次銷售 EcoSource 非冶金氧化鋁，我們的低碳 EcoLum 原鋁現在占我們在歐洲金屬銷售額的一半。

We delivered and exceeded our $645 million profitability improvement program ahead of schedule through initiatives which included savings on raw materials, actions to improve profitability and competitiveness, as well as changes to improve the financial performance of our operating portfolio.

我們透過節省原材料、提高盈利能力和競爭力的舉措以及改善營運組合財務績效的變革等舉措提前完成並超額完成了 6.45 億美元的盈利能力提升計劃。

In November, we started delevering the company with the repayment of $385 million of debt while maintaining our quarterly dividend.

11 月份，我們開始降低公司槓桿率，償還 3.85 億美元的債務，同時維持季度股利。

We completed the Alumina Limited acquisition and initiated the sale of our investment in the Ma'aden joint ventures valued today at about $1.3 billion.

我們完成了對 Alumina Limited 的收購，並開始出售我們對 Ma'aden 合資企業的投資，目前價值約 13 億美元。

Also in the fourth quarter of 2024, we progressed the cooperation with stakeholders to improve the long-term outlook of our San Ciprián operations.

此外，在 2024 年第四季度，我們推進了與利益相關者的合作，以改善我們聖西普里安業務的長期前景。

To sum it up, 2024 was a successful year at Alcoa.

總而言之，2024 年是美鋁公司成功的一年。

Now I'll turn it over to Molly to take us through the strong financial results.

現在我將請 Molly 向我們介紹強勁的財務表現。

Thank you, Bill.

謝謝你，比爾。

Revenue was up 20% sequentially to $3.5 billion.

營收季增 20%，達到 35 億美元。

In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue increased 45% on higher average realized third-party price and higher shipments.

在氧化鋁部門，由於第三方平均實現價格上漲和出貨量增加，第三方收入增加了 45%。

In the Aluminum segment, third-party revenue increased 5%, primarily due to the increase in average realized third-party price.

在鋁部門，第三方收入成長了 5%，主要由於第三方平均實現價格的上漲。

Fourth-quarter net income attributable to Alcoa was $202 million versus the prior quarter of $90 million, with earnings per common share doubling to $0.76 per share.

第四季歸屬於美國鋁業公司的淨利潤為 2.02 億美元，而上一季為 9,000 萬美元，每股普通股收益翻了一番，達到每股 0.76 美元。

These results include an additional $82 million restructuring charge for the Kwinana curtailment.

這些結果包括奎那那 (Kwinana) 減產的額外 8,200 萬美元重組費用。

During the fourth quarter, we completed the technical evaluation of the water management requirements for the residue areas and to increase the duration of the transition and related equipment costs for ongoing water treatment.

第四季度，我們完成了對殘留物區域水管理要求的技術評估，並增加了持續水處理的過渡時間和相關設備成本。

On an adjusted basis, the net earnings attributable to Alcoa was $276 million or $1.04 per share.

經調整後，歸屬於美鋁公司的淨利潤為 2.76 億美元，即每股 1.04 美元。

Adjusted EBITDA increased $222 million to $677 million.

調整後的 EBITDA 增加 2.22 億美元，達到 6.77 億美元。

Let's look at the key drivers of EBITDA.

讓我們來看看 EBITDA 的關鍵驅動因素。

Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA reflects higher alumina and aluminum prices, higher shipments and lower energy costs, partially offset by increased other costs primarily related to intersegment eliminations.

第四季調整後的 EBITDA 反映了氧化鋁和鋁價格的上漲、出貨量的增加以及能源成本的下降，但部分被主要與部門間抵銷相關的其他成本的增加所抵消。

The Alumina segment increased $349 million, primarily due to higher alumina prices, higher volume, while all other cost increases were mostly offset by currency gains.

氧化鋁部門增加了 3.49 億美元，主要由於氧化鋁價格上漲、銷量增加，而所有其他成本增加大部分都被貨幣收益所抵消。

The Aluminum segment increased slightly with higher metal prices, production cost improvements, and lower energy costs being mostly offset by higher alumina costs.

鋁部門略有成長，原因是金屬價格上漲，生產成本改善，以及能源成本降低，但大部分被氧化鋁成本的上漲所抵消。

Outside the segments, other corporate costs increased, and the intersegment elimination expense increased as expected with significantly higher average alumina price requiring more inventory profit elimination.

分部之外，其他公司成本增加，且分部間消除費用如預期增加，氧化鋁平均價格大幅上漲需要更多庫存利潤消除。

Moving on to cash flow activities for the fourth quarter and full-year 2024.

繼續討論 2024 年第四季和全年的現金流活動。

We used cash from improved earnings in the fourth quarter, along with cash on the balance sheet to repay the debt acquired in the Alumina Limited transaction.

我們利用第四季獲利改善帶來的現金以及資產負債表上的現金償還了氧化鋁有限公司交易中產生的債務。

This repayment was partially offset by increased borrowings under an inventory repurchase program.

該還款部分被庫存回購計畫下增加的借款所抵銷。

Working capital improved slightly in the quarter as lower inventories and higher year-end accounts payables offset increased accounts receivables related to higher API and metal prices.

由於庫存減少和年末應付帳款增加抵消了 API 和金屬價格上漲導致的應收帳款增加，本季營運資本略有改善。

For the year, capital expenditures, working capital changes, and environmental and ARO payments continue to be our largest uses of cash.

今年，資本支出、營運資本變動以及環境和 ARO 支付仍然是我們最大的現金用途。

Additionally, in 2024, our restructuring payments included approximately $140 million related to the Kwinana curtailment and approximately $35 million related to our employee commitments in Spain.

此外，2024 年，我們的重組付款包括與奎那那削減相關的約 1.4 億美元和與我們在西班牙的員工承諾相關的約 3500 萬美元。

Next, we'll review the performance on our profitability improvement program.

接下來，我們將回顧我們的獲利能力改善計劃的績效。

We have already exceeded the $645 million target set for our profitability program, which was generally a two-year program to improve our financial results from full-year 2023's low EBITDA of $536 million.

我們已經超額完成了為盈利計劃設定的 6.45 億美元的目標，該計劃通常是一個為期兩年的計劃，旨在將我們的財務業績從 2023 年全年 EBITDA 的低點 5.36 億美元提升至更高水平。

Overall, the improvements are evident in our year-over-year bridge by program or location.

整體而言，我們按項目或地點劃分的橋樑逐年改善，效果顯著。

During the fourth quarter, we added $150 million to the third quarter's year-to-date progress for a total of $675 million.

第四季度，我們在第三季年初至今的進展基礎上又增加了 1.5 億美元，總計 6.75 億美元。

Through December 31, the company overachieved its $310 million target on raw materials with approximately $385 million in savings.

截至 12 月 31 日，該公司超額實現了 3.1 億美元的原物料目標，並節省了約 3.85 億美元。

Within our productivity and competitiveness program through December 31, we implemented actions contributing approximately $80 million of savings and expect to deliver the $100 million run rate target by the end of the first quarter of 2025.

截至 12 月 31 日，我們在生產力和競爭力計劃中實施了約 8,000 萬美元的節省措施，並預計在 2025 年第一季末實現 1 億美元的運行率目標。

We have also progressed our portfolio improvements.

我們的投資組合改進也取得了進展。

To date, Warrick has achieved $45 million of its $60 million target.

到目前為止，沃里克已經實現了 6000 萬美元目標中的 4500 萬美元。

We also received the final ruling from the US Treasury on the inclusion of direct materials and Section 45X of the IRA program, which adds roughly $15 million in annual credits or about half of the benefit we had expected.

我們還收到了美國財政部關於納入直接材料和 IRA 計劃第 45X 條款的最終裁決，這增加了大約 1500 萬美元的年度信貸，約為我們預期收益的一半。

The Alumar smelter restart achieved approximately $105 million on its $75 million target and is currently operating at nearly 85% capacity.

Alumar 冶煉廠重啟後，實現了約 1.05 億美元的投資，遠超其 7,500 萬美元的目標，目前產能利用率接近 85%。

The Kwinana curtailment has been slow to deliver savings due to high transition and holding costs, but we will continue to work toward the $70 million improvement target.

由於高昂的過渡和持有成本，奎那那削減專案節約的進度很慢，但我們將繼續努力實現 7,000 萬美元的改善目標。

Moving on to other key financial metrics.

繼續討論其他關鍵財務指標。

The year-to-date return on equity is positive 6.5%.

年初至今的股本回報率為正 6.5%。

Days working capital decreased 11 days sequentially to 34 days, primarily due to a decrease in inventory days on increased sales.

營運資本天數較上季減少 11 天至 34 天，主要由於銷售額增加導致庫存天數減少。

Our fourth-quarter dividend added $27 million to stockholder capital returns.

我們第四季的股息為股東資本回報增加了 2700 萬美元。

Free cash flow plus net non-controlling interest contribution was positive for the quarter, resulting in a cash balance of $1.1 billion.

本季自由現金流加上淨非控制權益貢獻為正，導致現金餘額為 11 億美元。

As we look ahead to 2025, continuing to delever and reposition debt to the jurisdictions where cash is needed will be a priority for us.

展望 2025 年，繼續去槓桿並將債務重新定位到需要現金的地區將是我們的首要任務。

Turning to the outlook for the full year and first quarter of 2025.

展望2025年全年及第一季的展望。

To be clear, our outlook does not include any estimates for the impacts of potential tariffs.

需要明確的是，我們的展望並不包括對潛在關稅影響的任何估計。

For the full year, we expect alumina production to range between 9.5 million and 9.7 million tons and shipments to range between 13.1 million and 13.3 million tons.

我們預計全年氧化鋁產量將在 950 萬至 970 萬噸之間，出貨量將在 1,310 萬至 1,330 萬噸之間。

The difference reflects our normal trading volumes as well as externally sourced alumina.

這一差異反映了我們的正常交易量以及外部採購的氧化鋁。

The Aluminum segment is expected to produce 2.3 million to 2.5 million tons, increasing on smelter restarts, while shipments are expected to range between 2.6 million and 2.8 million tons.

鋁部門預計產量為 230 萬至 250 萬噸，隨著冶煉廠重啟而增加，而出貨量預計在 260 萬至 280 萬噸之間。

In EBITDA items outside the segments, we expect transformation costs to be $75 million, slightly increased from last year and reflecting the work we are doing to accelerate remediation activity in order to take advantage of potential asset monetization opportunities.

在部門以外的 EBITDA 計畫中，我們預計轉型成本為 7,500 萬美元，較去年略有增加，這反映了我們為加快補救活動以利用潛在資產貨幣化機會所做的工作。

Other corporate expense will improve to approximately $170 million, reflecting continued efforts to control our overhead costs.

其他公司費用將改善至約 1.7 億美元，這反映了我們持續努力控制管理費用。

Below EBITDA, we expect depreciation to remain at approximately $640 million. Non-operating

低於 EBITDA，我們預計折舊將保持在約 6.4 億美元。非經營性

pension and OPEB expense is expected to be up slightly at $25 million and interest expense will be $165 million.

退休金和OPEB支出預計將小幅上漲至2,500萬美元，利息支出將達到1.65億美元。

For cash flow impacts, we expect 2025 pension and OPEB required cash funding to be similar to 2024 at $70 million.

對於現金流的影響，我們預計 2025 年退休金和 OPEB 所需現金資金將與 2024 年相似，為 7,000 萬美元。

The majority of that spend is for the US OPEB plan.

其中大部分支出用於美國 OPEB 計劃。

Our capital returns to stockholders will continue to be aligned with our capital allocation framework.

我們對股東的資本回報將繼續與我們的資本配置框架保持一致。

Our capital expenditure estimate is $700 million, with $625 million in sustaining and $75 million in return-seeking.

我們的資本支出估計為 7 億美元，其中 6.25 億美元為維持性支出，7,500 萬美元為回報尋求支出。

The sustaining capital increase is $185 million over 2024, primarily due to a $70 million increase related to upcoming mine moves in Australia, as well as a number of major projects, including energy transition projects in Juruti, a new ship unloader in Canada, and upgrades to a bauxite reclaiming system in Australia.

2024 年的持續資本增加為 1.85 億美元，主要由於與澳洲即將進行的礦場搬遷有關的 7,000 萬美元增加，以及一些重大項目，包括 Juruti 的能源轉型項目、加拿大的新卸船機以及澳洲鋁土礦回收系統的升級。

We expect return-seeking investments to decrease following our investment in the Brazil bauxite vessels in 2024.

我們預計，繼 2024 年對巴西鋁土礦船進行投資後，尋求回報的投資將會減少。

However, we continue to identify capacity expansion projects and remain open to fund those requests if they meet return criteria and market conditions allow.

然而，我們將繼續尋找產能擴張項目，如果這些項目符合回報標準且市場條件允許，我們仍願意為這些請求提供資金。

We expect approximately $50 million of prior-period income tax payments in 2025.

我們預計 2025 年的上期所得稅支付約為 5,000 萬美元。

That amount is lower than you might expect based on our 2024 higher earnings, primarily due to the utilization of the Alumina Limited carryforward net operating loss, which saved approximately $70 million on 2024 cash taxes.

該金額低於您根據我們 2024 年更高收益所預期的金額，這主要是由於利用了 Alumina Limited 結轉淨經營虧損，從而節省了約 7000 萬美元的 2024 年現金稅。

We have approximately $60 million of tax benefit related to that NOL remaining to use in future periods, subject to annual percentage limitations.

我們有大約 6000 萬美元的與該 NOL 相關的稅收優惠可在未來期間使用，但須遵守年度百分比限制。

Environmental and ARO spending is expected to be similar to 2024 at approximately $240 million.

預計環境和 ARO 支出將​​與 2024 年相似，約 2.4 億美元。

We do not provide guidance on full-year cash restructuring charges but can show the portion attributable to the Kwinana curtailment.

我們不提供全年現金重組費用的指導，但可以顯示歸因於奎那那限產的部分。

Approximately $140 million remains to be spent from the Kwinana restructuring reserve with a large majority of that to be dispersed in 2025.

奎那那重組儲備金仍有約 1.4 億美元待支出，其中絕大部分將於 2025 年撥付。

For the first quarter of 2025 at the segment level, in Alumina, we expect performance to be favorable by approximately $30 million due to the non-recurring inventory adjustment recorded in the fourth quarter, partially offset by typical first quarter impacts from the beginning of maintenance cycles and lower shipping volumes.

對於 2025 年第一季的氧化鋁分部層面，我們預計業績將有利約 3000 萬美元，原因是第四季度記錄的非經常性庫存調整，但部分抵消了維護週期開始和運輸量下降對第一季度的典型影響。

In the Aluminum segment, we expect performance to be unfavorable by approximately $60 million due to the nonrecurring IRA Section 45 true-up benefit recorded in the fourth quarter, lower seasonal pricing at the Brazil hydroelectric facilities, and the absence of Ma'aden offtake shipping volumes in accordance with the terms of the announced transaction.

在鋁業部門，我們預計業績將不利約 6,000 萬美元，原因是第四季度記錄的非經常性 IRA 第 45 條真實收益、巴西水力發電設施的季節性價格較低，以及根據宣布的交易條款缺少 Ma'aden 承購運輸量。

While the higher average price of alumina will increase overall Alcoa adjusted EBITDA, alumina cost in the Aluminum segment is expected to be unfavorable by approximately $90 million.

雖然氧化鋁平均價格上漲將提高美鋁公司整體調整後的 EBITDA，但預計鋁業務的氧化鋁成本將損失約 9,000 萬美元。

Beyond the standard sensitivity provided for intersegment profit elimination, we anticipate an additional $20 million of income in the first quarter of 2025 due to the lower profit retained in inventory related to changes in production costs and volumes.

除了為分部間利潤消除提供的標準敏感度之外，我們預計 2025 年第一季還將產生 2,000 萬美元的收入，原因是生產成本和產量變化導致庫存保留的利潤較低。

Below EBITDA, within other expenses, contributions to ELYSIS in the first quarter of 2025 are expected to increase by $25 million, which triggers loss recognition.

在 EBITDA 以下，在其他費用中，預計 2025 年第一季對 ELYSIS 的貢獻將增加 2,500 萬美元，這將觸發損失確認。

The fourth quarter of 2024 included negative impacts of $50 million due to foreign currency losses, which may not recur.

2024 年第四季因外匯損失產生了 5,000 萬美元的負面影響，這種影響可能不會再發生。

Based on last week's pricing, we expect the first quarter of 2025 operational tax expense to approximate $120 million to $130 million.

根據上週的定價，我們預計 2025 年第一季的營運稅費約為 1.2 億至 1.3 億美元。

Note that the fourth quarter 2024 tax provision included a $55 million catch-up expense.

請注意，2024 年第四季的稅務準備金包含了 5,500 萬美元的補繳費用。

Our sensitivities have been updated for our view of 2025.

我們對 2025 年的展望已更新敏感度。

Please note that we revised our regional premium distribution due to the increase in the Alumar smelter shipments.

請注意，由於 Alumar 冶煉廠出貨量的增加，我們修改了區域溢價分佈。

Our pricing in Brazil is based on both index and fixed pricing.

我們在巴西的定價是基於指數和固定定價。

As a proxy for the average result of that pricing scheme, we see a high correlation to the Midwest duty-unpaid index and suggest using that index for your model.

作為此定價方案平均結果的代表，我們發現其與中西部未繳關稅指數有較高的相關性，因此建議在您的模型中使用該指數。

Lastly, we have a new disclosure in the appendix.

最後，我們在附錄中有一個新的披露。

At the request of our stockholders, particularly those in Australia where per unit disclosures are widely available, we are now including cost per unit measures for the Alumina and Aluminum segments as a whole for your reference.

應我們股東的要求，特別是那些單位資訊揭露廣泛可用的澳洲股東的要求，我們現在將氧化鋁和鋁部門的單位成本指標作為一個整體納入其中，供您參考。

Now I'll turn it back to Bill.

現在我將話題轉回給比爾。

Thanks, Molly.

謝謝，莫莉。

We expect to maintain our fast pace in 2025.

我們預計 2025 年仍將維持快速發展步伐。

Let's cover some of our key areas of focus in 2025.

讓我們來介紹一下 2025 年的一些重點關注領域。

We want a step change in safety.

我們希望在安全方面取得重大進展。

We've made great progress in the last two years but we want more.

我們在過去兩年裡取得了巨大的進步，但我們還想要取得更多。

We see a direct correlation between safety and operational stability.

我們發現安全性和運作穩定性之間有直接的關聯。

We're continuing our pursuit of operational excellence, supported by the modernization of the Alcoa business system and with particular attention on improving the performance of our Brazilian operations.

我們將繼續追求卓越運營，並藉助美鋁業務系統現代化的支持，特別注重提高我們巴西業務的績效。

Progressing our mining approvals in Australia remains of paramount importance.

推進澳洲的採礦審批仍然至關重要。

We expect to raise the bar on commercial excellence through customer-focused decisions.

我們希望透過以客戶為中心的決策來提高商業卓越的標準。

We want to be positioned as the supplier of choice for customers in terms of product quality, innovation, sustainability, and security of supply.

我們希望在產品品質、創新性、永續性和供應安全性方面成為客戶的首選供應商。

We plan to pursue targeted areas for growth via organic and inorganic opportunities.

我們計劃透過有機和無機機會尋求目標成長領域。

We will do that where returns exceed the cost of capital and deliver value to our shareholders.

當回報超過資本成本並為股東帶來價值時，我們就會做到這一點。

We are progressing our work on San Ciprián and expect to execute the first steps in 2025.

我們正在推動聖西普里安計畫的建設，預計在 2025 年邁出第一步。

Lastly, on capital allocation, delevering and repositioning debt are a priority for us.

最後，在資本配置方面，去槓桿和重新定位債務是我們的首要任務。

Assuming prices retain their strength, we expect to generate sufficient cash to enable further debt reductions.

假設價格保持強勢，我們預計將產生足夠的現金來進一步減少債務。

We believe delevering is another means to deliver value to our stockholders.

我們相信去槓桿是另一個向股東創造價值的手段。

Now let's discuss our markets.

現在讓我們討論一下我們的市場。

In alumina, prices reached an all-time high in the fourth quarter as a result of a tight market on lower-than-expected supply.

就氧化鋁而言，由於供應低於預期導致市場吃緊，第四季價格創下歷史新高。

In Guinea, a force majeure on bauxite exports to China from a major player in protests in the region all impacted the flow of bauxite exports.

在幾內亞，由於該地區主要抗議活動爆發，導致對中國的鋁土礦出口遭遇不可抗力，這一切都影響了鋁土礦的出口。

This is particularly relevant to the Chinese market that was already facing tight bauxite supply due to lower local production related to safety and environmental inspections at mines in northern China.

這對中國市場來說尤其重要，由於中國北方礦山安全和環境檢查導致當地產量下降，中國市場已經面臨鋁土礦供應緊張的問題。

Meanwhile, demand remained strong from smelters, resulting in low stocks available in the alumina spot market, creating competition for alumina cargos and increasing the cost of smelters.

同時，冶煉廠需求仍然強勁，導致氧化鋁現貨市場庫存較低，造成氧化鋁貨物競爭加劇，增加了冶煉廠的成本。

Looking ahead to 2025, in order for the alumina market to come back to balance, several ramp-up and new projects in China, Indonesia, and India must complete as planned.

展望2025年，為了使氧化鋁市場恢復平衡，中國、印尼和印度的多個增產和新項目必須按計劃完成。

Also, bauxite availability is key to keeping refining projects in India and China on track.

此外，鋁土礦的供應是確保印度和中國的煉油項目順利進行的關鍵。

In Aluminum, global demand remained resilient in the fourth quarter.

就鋁而言，第四季全球需求依然保持彈性。

European and North American demand continues to be supported by the packaging and electrical sectors, while building and construction and automotive remain challenged.

歐洲和北美的需求繼續受到包裝和電氣行業的支撐，而建築和汽車行業仍然面臨挑戰。

For building and construction, specifically, prior interest rate cuts in Europe and in the US are likely to provide support for recovery.

具體來說，對於建築業而言，歐洲和美國先前的降息可能會為復甦提供支援。

In China, growth in all end uses with the exception of building construction led to strong primary aluminum demand growth in 2024.

在中國，除建築業以外所有終端用途的成長，推動2024年原鋁需求強勁成長。

The increase in alumina price has outweighed the increase in aluminum price and resulted in tighter margins for smelters exposed to spot price.

氧化鋁價格的漲幅超過了鋁價的漲幅，導致受現貨價格影響的冶煉廠利潤收緊。

Announced smelter curtailments in Russia, front-loaded maintenance at smelters in China, together with delayed ramp-ups in Indonesia, have tightened global aluminum supply.

俄羅斯宣布削減冶煉廠產能，中國冶煉廠前期維護，以及印尼延後增產，導致全球鋁供應吃緊。

For 2025, aluminum demand outside China is expected to rebound, with North America and Europe supported by higher real incomes and lower average interest rates year over year.

預計到2025年，中國以外的鋁需求將反彈，因為北美和歐洲將受到逐年提高的實際收入和降低的平均利率的支撐。

Limited supply growth is expected globally in 2025 following recent curtailments and delayed ramp-ups, supported by China approaching the 45 million metric ton capacity cap.

由於中國接近 4,500 萬噸的產能上限，近期的減產和產能提升延遲，預計 2025 年全球供應成長將有限。

And of course, there is uncertainty related to the impact of any new US tariffs, which could have wide-ranging effects on supply, demand, and trade flows.

當然，美國新關稅的影響也存在不確定性，可能會對供給、需求和貿易流動產生廣泛影響。

When we speak of the possibility of changing trade flows, it is important to point out Alcoa's competitive advantage as a vertically integrated primary aluminum player from mine to metal with bauxite mines, alumina refineries, and aluminum smelters and cast houses located across the world.

當我們談論改變貿易流的可能性時，必須指出美鋁公司的競爭優勢，作為一家從礦山到金屬的垂直整合原鋁企業，美鋁公司的鋁土礦山、氧化鋁精煉廠、鋁冶煉廠和鑄造廠遍布全球。

This positioning gives Alcoa the ability to maneuver and respond to challenging and changing market and policy conditions.

這一定位使美鋁公司能夠靈活應對不斷變化的市場和政策條件。

As I mentioned earlier, the tight supply in 2024 in bauxite and alumina caused alumina prices to rise to all-time highs, and some smelters had to cut production or delay ramp-ups.

正如我之前提到的，2024 年鋁土礦和氧化鋁供應緊張導致氧化鋁價格升至歷史新高，一些冶煉廠不得不減產或推遲增產。

Our global network of mines and refineries enabled us to navigate these market conditions without significant operational issues while benefiting from the elevated alumina price.

我們遍布全球的礦場和煉油廠網路使我們能夠駕馭這些市場條件，而不會出現重大的營運問題，同時受益於氧化鋁價格的上漲。

In aluminum, Alcoa's close proximity to customers in North America and Europe with smelters across the US, Canada and Europe.

在鋁業方面，美鋁公司與北美和歐洲的客戶關係非常密切，其冶煉廠遍及美國、加拿大和歐洲。

For both alumina and aluminum products, our customers value the security that comes with Alcoa-sourced products.

對於氧化鋁和鋁產品而言，我們的客戶非常重視美鋁產品的安全性。

They appreciate our close proximity, reliable delivery performance, as well as a variety of mature and stable transportation choices.

他們欣賞我們鄰近的地理位置、可靠的配送性能以及多種成熟穩定的運輸選擇。

Alcoa prides itself on offering high-quality products across the value chain and continuing to innovate our products to meet customer needs, including low carbon solutions.

美鋁公司自豪於能夠在整個價值鏈中提供高品質的產品，並不斷創新我們的產品以滿足客戶需求，包括低碳解決方案。

When you transition from Alcoa's global footprint to look at the primary aluminum supply flows into the United States, you can see the US currently has a significant inflow from Canada.

當您從美鋁公司的全球足跡轉向觀察流入美國的原鋁供應量時，您會發現美國目前有大量來自加拿大的鋁流入。

The current discussions and proposals on tariffs by the US government may have significant impacts on how metal is flowing from one country to another.

美國政府目前正在討論並提出的關稅提案可能會對金屬從一個國家流向另一個國家的方式產生重大影響。

Currently, the US imports two-thirds of its primary aluminum from Canada.

目前，美國三分之二的原鋁從加拿大進口。

This was true both before and after the Section 232 tariffs on aluminum implemented by President Trump in his first term, who also granted an exemption to the tariffs for Canada and select other countries.

在川普總統第一任期內實施的第 232 條鋁關稅之前和之後都是如此，川普也對加拿大和其他部分國家給予了關稅豁免。

If there were to be tariffs on Canadian aluminum imports to the US, this would represent a threat to US industrial competitiveness.

如果美國對加拿大進口的鋁徵收關稅，這將對美國工業競爭力構成威脅。

A 25% tariff on current Canadian export volume to the US could represent $1.5 billion to $2 billion of additional annual cost for US customers.

對目前加拿大對美國的出口量徵收 25% 的關稅可能會給美國消費者帶來每年 15 億至 20 億美元的額外成本。

In addition, increasing costs on trade with Canada and Mexico would particularly hurt the US transportation supply chain, the largest end market in North America and specifically the automotive market.

此外，與加拿大和墨西哥的貿易成本增加將特別損害美國運輸供應鏈、北美最大的終端市場，特別是汽車市場。

Trade flows would likely be impacted such that US aluminum imports would increase from countries and regions that have a lower import duty level like the Middle East and India, while Canadian metal could reroute to Europe and other countries.

貿易流動可能會受到影響，美國從中東和印度等進口關稅較低的國家和地區的鋁進口量將增加，而加拿大的鋁進口量可能會改道銷往歐洲和其他國家。

In Alcoa's case, we could reroute supply from our Canadian smelters to Europe.

就美國鋁業公司而言，我們可以將供應從加拿大冶煉廠轉移到歐洲。

While it is an advantage to have this optionality, it certainly is not a benefit for our customers and supply chains like them.

雖然這種可選性是一個優勢，但對於我們的客戶和供應鏈來說，它肯定不是一個好處。

That said, Alcoa is a 135-year-old global company which operates in markets all over the world and has worked with governments on many topics throughout our history.

儘管如此，美鋁公司是一家擁有 135 年歷史的全球性公司，業務遍及全球各地的市場，並且在整個歷史上與政府在許多議題上進行過合作。

If the US government decides to implement new tariffs for strategic purposes, we will work with the administration to protect Alcoa's interests.

如果美國政府出於戰略目的決定實施新的關稅，我們將與美國政府合作，以保護美鋁的利益。

Let's move on to talk about our work in Spain.

讓我們繼續談論我們在西班牙的工作。

We just announced further progress with our San Ciprián stakeholders.

我們剛剛宣布了與聖西普里安利益相關者取得的進一步進展。

Alcoa Inespal, IGNIS EQT, the Spanish national, and Xunta regional governments have entered into a memorandum of understanding to work cooperatively toward improving the long-term outlook for the complex.

Alcoa Inespal、IGNIS EQT、西班牙國家政府和 Xunta 地區政府已簽署諒解備忘錄，共同努力改善該綜合體的長期前景。

There are four key elements of the MOU, which include cooperation from the parties: first, support by the governments for our dialogue with San Ciprián workers to prioritize restarting the smelter over capital investments that can be deferred to a later date; second, streamline the authorization of renewable energy projects and deploy policies to achieve competitive energy costs; third, provide materially higher CO2 compensation support.

該諒解備忘錄有四個關鍵要素，包括各方的合作：首先，政府支持我們與聖西普里安工人的對話，優先重啟冶煉廠，而不是可以推遲到以後的資本投資；二是簡化再生能源專案的授權，並部署政策，實現具競爭力的能源成本；第三，提供大幅增加的二氧化碳補償支持。

We've already seen the Spanish national government increase the CO2 compensation program budget, which will provide meaningful support when the San Ciprián smelter reaches full capacity; last, support the approval by the regional government of the residue storage area capital projects, which are needed to maintain production in the refinery.

我們已經看到西班牙國家政府增加了二氧化碳補償計劃預算，這將在聖西普里安冶煉廠達到滿載時提供有意義的支持；最後，支持區域政府批准煉油廠維持生產所需的渣油儲存區資本項目。

We expect to use the momentum created by the MOU to continue advancing these key areas of cooperation as well as the remaining conditions, including energy supply contracts.

我們希望利用諒解備忘錄創造的勢頭繼續推進這些關鍵合作領域以及包括能源供應合約在內的剩餘條件。

Additionally, Alcoa Inespal and IGNIS EQT are working to finalize the partnership agreement.

此外，Alcoa Inespal 和 IGNIS EQT 正在努力敲定合作協議。

We are working to complete these steps as early as possible in the first quarter of 2025.

我們正在努力在 2025 年第一季儘早完成這些步驟。

As a company, we are proud of the progress we have made in the fourth quarter and in 2024 on multiple fronts.

作為一家公司，我們為第四季度和 2024 年在多個方面取得的進展感到自豪。

Looking ahead, we plan to maintain a fast pace of execution on our 2025 key areas of focus and strategic initiatives, improve the competitiveness of our operations, and capitalize on strong market fundamentals to deliver value to our stockholders.

展望未來，我們計劃繼續快速執行2025年的重點關注領域和策略計劃，提高營運競爭力，並利用強勁的市場基本面為股東創造價值。

Operator, let's start the question-and-answer portion of the session.

接線員，我們開始本次會議的問答部分。

(Operator Instructions) Katja Jancic, BMO Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）Katja Jancic，BMO 資本市場。

Maybe starting on tariffs, Bill, you mentioned if there are 25% tariffs on Canada, you would potentially divert that volume to European market.

也許從關稅開始，比爾，你提到如果對加拿大徵收 25% 的關稅，你可能會將這部分出口轉移到歐洲市場。

Where do you think the Midwest premium could actually go if we do start seeing that volume being directed and US would still have to attract the volume from somewhere else?

如果我們確實開始看到這些貨量被引導，而美國仍然需要從其他地方吸引貨量，您認為中西部溢價實際上會走向何方？

Yes, Katja, the Midwest premium, we think, will go substantially higher.

是的，卡佳，我們認為中西部地區的保費將大幅上漲。

I don't have a number in front of me on what we think it will end up at, but it will go substantially higher in order to attract volumes into the US.

我還沒有確定最終價格會達到多少，但是為了吸引更多客戶進入美國，價格會大幅上漲。

Ultimately, if there's a differential between Canadian and non-Canadian metal, you're going to see trade flows disrupted such way that us and other suppliers most likely will ship from Canadian metal into Europe.

最終，如果加拿大和非加拿大金屬之間存在差異，你會看到貿易流動受到干擾，以至於我們和其他供應商很可能會將加拿大金屬運往歐洲。

And you'll see Middle Eastern metal and potentially Indian metal coming into North America because there would potentially be a 15% trade differential.

你會看到中東金屬和潛在的印度金屬進入北美，因為可能有15％的貿易差異。

Literally, you'd see ships passing in the Atlantic carrying the exact same product back and forth, and it doesn't make a lot of sense.

從字面上理解，你會看到船隻在大西洋上來回運送著完全相同的產品，這並沒有多大意義。

And so that's why we've shown the chart that we showed.

這就是我們展示該圖表的原因。

And then maybe just for Alcoa specifically, would the increase in Midwest premium and your US operation be enough to offset the negative impact from tariffs?

那麼也許僅對於美鋁公司而言，中西部溢價的增加和美國業務是否足以抵銷關稅帶來的負面影響？

So remember the differential between the size of production in the US versus the size of production in Canada.

因此，請記住美國與加拿大生產規模之間的差異。

We have roughly 900,000 metric tons in Canada and operating in the US roughly 300,000 metric tons, so the differential would not offset.

我們在加拿大擁有約 90 萬公噸，在美國經營約 30 萬公噸，因此差異不會抵銷。

Now before we speculate too much, the tariff structure hasn't been set.

在我們進行過多猜測之前，關稅結構尚未確定。

We have been appreciative of the US government taking the time to think through these tariffs.

我們感謝美國政府花時間考慮這些關稅。

And we'll wait and see what it brings and then give you a view of the outlook at that point.

我們將拭目以待，看看它會帶來什麼，然後向您介紹屆時的前景。

Lawson Winder, Bank of America Securities.

勞森·溫德（Lawson Winder），美國銀行證券。

Nice work on a solid '24.

在'24方面做得很好。

If I could, I'd like to ask about your net debt position.

如果可以的話，我想詢問一下您的淨債務狀況。

Nice to see it fall during the quarter.

很高興看到它在本季下降。

Bill, I know you haven't done this in the recent past, but would you feel that you might be able to, in your position today, provide some sort of clarity on the net debt target for Alcoa?

比爾，我知道你最近沒有這樣做過，但你是否覺得，以你今天的職位，你可以對美鋁公司的淨債務目標做出某種澄清？

And then how do you think about the Ma'aden equity position and how does that factor into your thinking?

那麼您如何看待 Ma'aden 的股權狀況以及這對您的想法有何影響？

And I'm coming from the point of view just to try to gauge the timing of when Alcoa might consider some sort of potential increase in capital return.

我只是想從這個角度來判斷美鋁公司何時會考慮增加某種形式的資本回報。

Lawson, I'll take the first part on our net debt target.

勞森，我將首先討論我們的淨債務目標。

We no longer have a stated net debt target.

我們不再有明確的淨債務目標。

However, we are currently higher than we've been in the last three years.

然而，我們目前的水平比過去三年要高。

We closed the year at $2.1 billion in adjusted net debt.

截至年底，我們的調整後淨債務為 21 億美元。

If you recall back to 2021 and '22, we were right around $1 billion in adjusted net debt, and that was certainly a more comfortable level for us.

如果您回想一下 2021 年和 2022 年，我們的調整後淨債務約為 10 億美元，這對我們來說無疑是一個更舒適的水平。

We will have delevering as well as repositioning debt as a priority in 2025.

去槓桿和債務重組將是2025年的首要任務。

If we find, though, that we have excess cash after maintaining our strong balance sheet and funding our operations to sustain them, we will look at our capital allocation framework, and we'll look at shareholder returns, positioning for growth as well as any further portfolio actions that we need to take.

不過，如果我們發現在維持強勁的資產負債表和為維持營運提供資金後，仍有剩餘現金，我們就會審視我們的資本配置框架，審視股東回報、成長定位以及我們需要採取的任何進一步的投資組合行動。

And when we consider the Ma'aden transaction, it's important to remember that we've announced it but we haven't closed it.

當我們考慮 Ma'aden 交易時，重要的是要記住我們已經宣布了它，但尚未完成它。

We anticipate that it will be closed in the first half of this year.

我們預計它將在今年上半年關閉。

The value on the day that we announced the transaction was roughly $1.1 billion.

我們宣布交易當天的價值約為 11 億美元。

Subsequent to that time, the Ma'aden shares have increased so the value is more like $1.3 billion.

此後，Ma'aden 的股價有所上漲，價值已接近 13 億美元。

We're very focused on getting that transaction closed.

我們非常專注於完成這筆交易。

Recall that it has a lockup period of roughly a third, a third, a third, three years, four years, and five years.

回想一下，它的鎖定期大約是三分之一、三分之一、三分之一、三年、四年和五年。

And so over that time period, we'll consider what we do with those shares but there is a lockup period.

因此，在這段時間內，我們會考慮如何處理這些股票，但有一個鎖定期。

So we'll have some time before we potentially recognize that value.

因此我們還需要一些時間才能真正認識到這個價值。

Okay, very helpful.

好的，很有幫助。

Thank you for the comments.

感謝您的評論。

If I could actually jump to the bauxite market.

如果我真的可以進入鋁土礦市場。

And just you provided some commentary and it's helpful.

而且您剛才提供了一些評論，這很有幫助。

It sounded kind of -- I guess it was a bit of a warning to some of these aluminum refineries that are ramping up.

這聽起來有點像——我想這對一些正在加大產能的鋁精煉廠來說是一種警告。

I mean, what are you hearing from your third-party customers in terms of bauxite availability?

我的意思是，您從第三方客戶那裡聽到了有關鋁土礦供應情況的什麼消息？

Do you have a sense that there is sufficient bauxite capacity in 2025 to see some of these new refineries in particular in India and China ramp up?

您是否認為到 2025 年，鋁土礦產能足以滿足印度和中國一些新煉油廠的產能需求？

The bauxite market currently is very tight.

目前鋁土礦市場非常緊張。

We see bauxite pricing into China at $120, $130 per ton, probably the highest bauxite's ever been.

我們看到中國鋁土礦的價格為每噸 120 至 130 美元，這可能是歷史最高價。

When a coastal refinery in China is looking at restarting, if they're using imported bauxite, their bauxite cost alone is somewhere between $250 and $300 per ton.

當中國沿海煉油廠考慮重啟時，如果他們使用進口鋁土礦，那麼僅鋁土礦成本就在每噸 250 至 300 美元之間。

So the market is tight, and it's tight for the reasons that we discussed in the prepared remarks.

因此，市場緊張，原因我們在準備好的評論中已經討論過了。

And that has a flow on impact on the alumina market.

這對氧化鋁市場產生了連鎖影響。

When we look at the alumina market, we think that alumina will remain tight, we believe, through the first half.

當我們觀察氧化鋁市場時，我們認為上半年氧化鋁市場仍將保持緊張。

I don't know what will happen after that.

我不知道之後會發生什麼事。

In order for the alumina market to loosen up, we need to see production coming online in India, Indonesia.

為了放鬆氧化鋁市場，我們需要看到印度、印尼的產量上線。

But with a tight bauxite market and an expensive bauxite market, that pressures the alumina market further.

但由於鋁土礦市場緊張且昂貴，這進一步對氧化鋁市場造成壓力。

Daniel Major, UBS.

瑞銀的丹尼爾·梅傑（Daniel Major）。

Yes, two questions.

是的，兩個問題。

The first one just on San Ciprián.

第一個就在聖西普里安 (San Ciprián)。

I guess, good progress with the memorandum of understanding, a couple of components.

我認為，諒解備忘錄的幾個部分都取得了良好進展。

Can you confirm what the cash balance is at the end of the year at San Ciprián?

您能確認聖西普里安年末的現金餘額是多少嗎？

And any updated projection based on kind of market prices as to when effectively that will run out of cash?

有沒有基於市場價格的最新預測，顯示何時現金會真正耗盡？

And is the memorandum of understanding, I guess, it's encouraging, but it doesn't guarantee a deal will be reached.

我認為，這份諒解備忘錄令人鼓舞，但並不能保證達成協議。

Is that way of thinking about it?

是這樣思考的嗎？

Yes, I'll take the first part on the cash balance.

是的，我將處理現金餘額的第一部分。

So with recently high API prices, it has reduced our net cash consumption but cash is still depleting weekly.

因此，由於最近 API 價格高企，我們的淨現金消耗減少了，但現金每週仍在減少。

And so we do have a sense of urgency to complete our discussions and negotiations, primarily with the unions on the release of the restricted cash and with the energy suppliers on viable contracts.

因此，我們確實迫切地希望完成我們的討論和談判，主要是與工會就釋放限制性現金進行談判，並與能源供應商就可行合約進行談判。

The decision for us to proceed with the JV formation and initial investments that would be made by Alcoa and our partner, IGNIS, will be based on the certainty that we have on each of the remaining items.

我們是否繼續與美鋁公司和我們的合作夥伴 IGNIS 組成合資公司並進行初始投資，將取決於我們對剩餘每個項目的確定性。

As far as the MOU goes, we think the MOU is a step forward for the long-term viability of the site.

就諒解備忘錄而言，我們認為該諒解備忘錄對於該地點的長期生存能力而言是向前邁出的一步。

The MOU provides essentially four things, as I outlined in my prepared remarks.

正如我在準備好的演講中所概述的那樣，該諒解備忘錄主要提供了四項內容。

Both the national and the regional government are supportive of prioritizing the smelter restart over the capital investments.

國家和地方政府都支持優先重啟冶煉廠，而不是資本投資。

They're supportive of streamlining the authorization of renewable energy projects, specifically wind farms.

他們支持簡化再生能源項目（特別是風電場）的授權。

They're providing their support for materially higher CO2 compensation support.

他們正在為大幅提高二氧化碳補償提供支援。

That's a big deal.

那是一件大事。

Back in December 13, they talked about doubling compensation for CO2.

早在 12 月 13 日，他們就談到了加倍二氧化碳補償。

That supports the long-term viability of the site.

這支持了該網站的長期生存能力。

And then lastly, we need -- not least important but we need support on approval of the residue storage area uplift.

最後，我們需要——這並非最不重要，但我們需要對殘留物儲存區提升的批准支援。

With that said, Daniel, we continue to plan for the ramp-up of the smelter.

話雖如此，丹尼爾，我們仍會繼續規劃擴大冶煉廠的產能。

But at this point, it can't be guaranteed.

但目前還不能保證。

As we mentioned earlier, we still have several key pieces that need to fall in place.

正如我們之前提到的，我們還有幾個關鍵部分需要落實。

Currently, the smelter is not viable so ramping up production will accelerate the consumption of cash that Molly talked about from the proposed investment that must be reserved to support the long-term viability of the operations.

目前，冶煉廠尚無生存能力，因此提高產量將加速 Molly 所說的擬議投資中的現金消耗，必須保留這些現金以支持營運的長期可行性。

We also need to hear from the Works Council on releasing the restricted cash.

我們也需要聽取工會關於釋放限制現金的意見。

So the MOU is a step forward, but it doesn't necessarily guarantee the restart of the smelter.

因此，這份諒解備忘錄是向前邁出的一步，但它不一定能保證冶煉廠的重啟。

Very good.

非常好。

And then second part of the question, lots of excitement around monetizing excess energy offtake that you have to feed the AI data center dynamic.

然後是問題的第二部分，人們對將多餘的能源消耗貨幣化以供給人工智慧資料中心動態感到非常興奮。

Can you provide us with any numbers around megawatts to potential excess capacity and any steer around the upside to there?

您能否為我們提供與兆瓦相關的潛在過剩產能數字及其上行潛力的任何指導？

You were breaking up on us, but I think the question that you're asking was that do we have excess energy that we can monetize around the world?

你說我們要分手，但我認為你問的問題是，我們是否擁有可以在世界各地貨幣化的過剩能源？

And we have four positions down in Brazil that are part ownership in hydros that we sell into the marketplace there.

我們在巴西擁有四個水力發電廠的部分所有權，並將產品銷售到巴西市場。

We saw the benefit of some higher pricing in the fourth quarter versus the third quarter, so that's a positive.

與第三季相比，我們看到第四季度定價有所上漲，所以這是積極的一面。

That will fluctuate depending on what the rainfall essentially looks like and what the energy prices look like down in Brazil.

這將取決於巴西的降雨情況和能源價格情況而波動。

The other place that we could potentially monetize energy is in but coal-fired power plants, and currently, we're using that energy to run the smelting.

我們可以將能源貨幣化的另一個地方是燃煤發電廠，目前，我們正在使用該能源進行冶煉。

But those are really the two areas that we could monetize energy other than making it into aluminum.

但除了將能源製成鋁之外，這實際上是我們可以將能源貨幣化的兩個領域。

Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

So maybe similar vein of the last question but maybe slightly different.

因此可能與上一個問題類似，但可能略有不同。

What is the opportunity that Alcoa has to potentially monetize idle sites, given the interest from data centers on that type of assets?

鑑於資料中心對此類資產的興趣，美鋁公司將閒置站點貨幣化的可能性有多大？

Thanks for the question, Carlos.

謝謝你的提問，卡洛斯。

And we actually have a history of monetizing legacy assets.

我們實際上有將遺留資產貨幣化的歷史。

That has generated significant value over time.

隨著時間的推移，這已經產生了巨大的價值。

And so while others may talk about it, we have actually done it.

因此，儘管其他人還在談論，但我們實際上已經做到了。

So for instance, in Texas, if you remember the Rockdale site, I believe we sold it for right around $270 million a number of years ago, and that has subsequently been redeveloped into certain areas.

舉例來說，在德克薩斯州，如果你還記得 Rockdale 地塊，我記得我們幾年前以大約 2.7 億美元的價格將其出售，後來它被重新開發成某些區域。

Again, we were able to monetize it and make good money.

再次，我們能夠將其貨幣化並賺取豐厚的利潤。

In advance of that, I should say after that, we sold the Intalco site for $100 million.

在此之前，我應該說，在此之後，我們以 1 億美元的價格出售了 Intalco 工廠。

That ultimately went to a data center developer and it was long before this craze around AI and data centers, and we were able to monetize $100 million there.

這筆錢最終落到了一家資料中心開發商手中，早在人工智慧和資料中心熱潮興起之前，我們就能夠在那裡賺到 1 億美元。

We have a number of sites around the country and around the world that are uniquely positioned to be able to take advantage of both the data center and the AI situation.

我們在全國和世界各地擁有多個站點，這些站點具有獨特的優勢，能夠同時利用資料中心和人工智慧的優勢。

Why do I say they're uniquely positioned?

為什麼我說他們有獨特的優勢？

They have generally energy connections that are able to bring energy in.

它們通常具有能夠引入能量的能量連接。

So when I look at it, there are places like Macia East.

所以當我看它時，有像 Macia East 這樣的地方。

The one that's probably the most valuable is Point Comfort because it has access to a port.

最有價值的可能是 Point Comfort，因為它可以通往港口。

Globally, we have Point Henry, which is a site that's in Australia.

在全球範圍內，我們有位於澳洲的亨利角 (Point Henry) 遺址。

So while I'm not willing to put a value on it, you see our track record before the real craze around AI and data centers of multi-hundred million dollar sales generation from these sites.

因此，雖然我不願意對其估值，但您可以看到，在人工智慧和資料中心真正熱潮興起之前，這些網站就已經創造了數億美元的銷售額。

Maybe just a follow-up on that one.

也許只是對此的一個後續行動。

Is there any timetable, and you were focused obviously last year on closing the Alumina Limited.

有沒有時間表，顯然去年您的重點是關閉氧化鋁有限公司。

You have been making progress in San Ciprián, that's an ongoing effort.

你們在聖西普里安已經取得了進展，這是一項持續不斷的努力。

But do you have now this potential monetization of legacy assets in your agenda for the coming months, quarters?

但是，在未來幾個月或幾個季度裡，您是否已經將這種潛在的遺留資產貨幣化列入了您的計劃中？

Any color as to when exactly where the company is potentially in this process and where we could see some benefit?

您能具體說明一下公司在這個過程中可能處於什麼位置以及我們可以從中得到什麼好處嗎？

No.

不。

And the reason why I say no, Carlos, is because these things take time and I want maximum value.

而我之所以說不，卡洛斯，是因為這些事情需要時間，而我想要最大的價值。

We're not in a position where we need to do a fire sale on any of these assets.

我們目前的情況是，不需要對任何這些資產進行賤賣。

So if you recall the saga of Rockdale from a number of years ago, we had offers in Rockdale that were as small as $40 million, and we held out for maximum value that was -- again, my recollection was greater than $250 million.

因此，如果您還記得幾年前 Rockdale 的故事，我們在 Rockdale 收到的報價低至 4,000 萬美元，而我們堅持要求最高價值——再說一次，我記得超過 2.5 億美元。

So I'm not going to lay out a timetable.

所以我不會制定時間表。

We have assets that we can monetize in the case of something like Point Comfort.

在 Point Comfort 之類的情況下，我們擁有可以貨幣化的資產。

We're going through the demolition.

我們正在進行拆除工作。

We're going to make sure that we get maximum value out of these sites.

我們將確保從這些網站獲取最大價值。

So we're not in a rush to sell but it is actually a good market right now, so we'll let you know.

所以我們並不急於出售，但現在實際上是一個好市場，所以我們會通知你。

Fair enough.

很公平。

And I'm going to cheat a little bit since there was technically one question.

我要稍微作弊一下，因為技術上只有一個問題。

If I may just ask on San Ciprián.

可以問一下聖西普里安 (San Ciprián) 的問題嗎？

So if all these efforts that you are putting into restarting the asset within a viable agreement don't work, don't play out, what would be like sort of maybe a range of the worst case for Alcoa and Alcoa's shareholders?

所以，如果你在可行協議內為重啟資產所做的所有努力都不起作用，沒有發揮作用，那麼對美鋁和美鋁股東來說，最糟糕的情況會是什麼？

How much money you would potentially lose or cash that would be stranded in the country?

您可能會損失多少錢或有多少現金會被滯留在該國？

If you can provide some color or framework around that, that would be useful.

如果您可以提供一些顏色或框架，那將會很有用。

So, Carlos, before Molly gives you some numbers, I will caution you that I don't want to speculate on the potential outcome here.

因此，卡洛斯，在莫莉給你一些數字之前，我要提醒你，我不想對這裡的潛在結果進行猜測。

We are focused on making San Ciprián a viable site.

我們致力於讓聖西普里安成為一個可行的場地。

We just announced a significant support that we're really pleased with from both the national and the regional government.

我們剛剛宣布了來自國家和地區政府的大力支持，我們對此感到非常高興。

So we are focused on making that a viable site for the long term.

因此，我們致力於使其成為一個長期可行的網站。

That's our priority outcome.

這是我們的優先成果。

However, Molly can give you some numbers around potential curtailment or closure costs.

不過，莫莉可以提供你一些有關潛在削減或關閉成本的數字。

So, Carlos, these haven't updated from the last time.

所以，卡洛斯，這些與上次相比還沒有更新。

They remain the same.

它們保持不變。

On the smelter without severance, we're looking at $40 million to $50 million in cash closure costs.

對於不計遣散費的冶煉廠，我們預計關閉該冶煉廠的現金成本為 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。

On the refinery, again, without severance, we're about $200 million, but that does include about $80 million in the CapEx for the residue storage area.

再次，就煉油廠而言，不包括遣散費，我們的成本約為 2 億美元，但其中包括殘渣儲存區的資本支出約 8,000 萬美元。

We're actually going to go ahead and do that work now.

我們實際上現在就要繼續進行這項工作。

That will be needed, whether we're running or closing.

無論我們是營運還是關閉，這都是必要的。

And then a closure scenario, again, we're not there but we would be paying out those funds that I just spoke about over five to seven years.

然後是關閉方案，再說一次，我們還沒有到達那一步，但我們將在五到七年內支付我剛才談到的那些資金。

Nick Giles, B. Riley Securities.

尼克吉爾斯 (Nick Giles)，B. Riley Securities。

Congrats on a really nice quarter here.

恭喜您度過了一個非常愉快的季度。

I just wanted to follow up on some of your legacy power assets.

我只是想跟進一下你們的一些遺留電力資產。

What have conversations look like to date?

迄今為止的對話情況如何？

Have you been approached by any hyperscalers or similar data center developers?

有沒有超大規模企業或類似的資料中心開發人員與您聯繫過？

Or is due diligence really just on Alcoa's end at this stage?

或者說，目前盡職調查真的只是在美國鋁業公司這一端？

Nick, we are in constant contact with developers on all of these sites.

尼克，我們與所有這些網站的開發人員都保持著密切聯繫。

And it takes time and it takes a lot of work with various groups.

這需要時間，也需要與各個團體合作進行大量工作。

These are generally not -- the landscape has changed a little bit with some of the hypers, the hyperscalers.

這些通常都不是——隨著一些超級計算器、超大規模計算器的出現，情況發生了些許變化。

But historically, these are generally not well-capitalized firms.

但從歷史上看，這些公司一般都資本不雄厚。

So you go through a lot of process and ultimately find out that they don't have the money to be able to do it.

因此，你經歷了很多過程，最終發現他們沒有足夠的資金來做到這一點。

But that's what we've done in places like Rockdale and Intalco.

但這就是我們在 Rockdale 和 Intalco 等地所做的事情。

So we are in contact with folks and trying to move forward for the best value for our shareholders.

因此，我們與大家保持聯繫，並努力為股東創造最大價值。

Well, Bill, I think it's safe to say everyone will be a little better capitalized after this target announcement last night.

好吧，比爾，我想可以肯定地說，在昨晚宣布這個目標之後，每個人都會變得更有資本。

My next question was, first of all, congratulations on the execution of the profitability improvement program.

我的下一個問題是，首先，祝賀盈利能力提升計劃的實施。

I was wondering if you could provide an update on your productivity and competitiveness program.

我想知道您是否可以提供有關生產力和競爭力計劃的最新資訊。

I think you had reached $45 million as of Q3.

我認為截至第三季度，您的收入已達到 4500 萬美元。

Should we still think about you exiting 1Q at the $100 million run rate?

我們是否仍應該考慮您以 1 億美元的營運率退出第一季？

Yes.

是的。

By that point, we'll have executed all the actions to hit the $100 million run rate.

到那時，我們將執行所有行動，實現 1 億美元的運行率。

We actually put all of the productivity initiatives into our 2025 plan.

我們實際上將所有生產力舉措都納入了我們的 2025 計劃。

While I know externally that you guys like these profitability programs, internally, they're actually hard to measure and hold accountable.

雖然我從外部知道你們喜歡這些獲利計劃，但從內部來看，它們實際上很難衡量和追究責任。

So we took the step of building all of our improvements into our plan.

因此，我們採取了將所有改進納入計劃的措施。

That way, we can track it by operation by department and know who's accountable.

這樣，我們就可以按部門追蹤操作並知道誰負責。

So we're feeling good about going into 2025 with all of those actions locked down and accounted in the plan.

因此，我們很高興能夠進入 2025 年，因為所有這些行動都已確定並納入計劃中。

And continued best of luck.

並繼續祝你好運。

Chris LaFemina, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的克里斯拉菲米納 (Chris LaFemina)。

I was going to ask about CapEx, but first, just on to that profitability improvement program.

我本來想問有關資本支出的問題，但首先，我們來談談獲利能力提升計畫。

Molly, you mentioned that it's hard to monitor that stuff internally.

莫莉，你提到內部監控這些東西很困難。

Well, it's also hard for us to monitor it externally.

嗯，從外部監控我們也比較困難。

So if we look at what you've delivered there and we assume you get the full benefit from the Kwinana curtailment, we assume you get the full benefit of the productivity and competitive program that you just spoke about.

因此，如果我們看看你們在那裡所做的一切，並假設你們從奎那那削減產量中獲得了全部利益，我們假設你們從你剛才談到的生產力和競爭力計劃中獲得了全部利益。

We assume you get the full benefit of the work optimization.

我們假設您已從工作優化中獲益匪淺。

That would imply like $750 million in total benefits.

這意味著總福利為 7.5 億美元。

And I think you did about $530 million roughly of EBITDA in 2023 before this program was implemented.

我認為在該計劃實施之前，您在 2023 年的 EBITDA 約為 5.3 億美元。

So does that mean effectively that if we go back to a 2023 commodity price environment, EBITDA, instead of being $530 million, would be $750 million more than that, so it's more like $1.3 billion in that sort of price environment?

那麼，這實際上意味著，如果我們回到 2023 年的商品價格環境，EBITDA 不是 5.3 億美元，而是會比這多出 7.5 億美元，所以在這種價格環境下更像是 13 億美元？

Is that the way we should think about that program in terms of modeling it going forward?

從未來建模的角度來看，我們應該這樣思考這個計畫嗎？

I hear what you're saying, Chris, but I kind of focus on the performance side of it.

我聽到了你所說的話，克里斯，但我更關注它的性能方面。

So if you look at the numbers that we've listed in the chart on the progress that we've made, if you look at the year-over-year bridge, which is in the back of your appendix, you'll see that our initiatives have generated about $625 million of productivity that's showing up in the '23 to '24 bridge.

因此，如果您查看我們在圖表中列出的所取得進展的數字，如果您查看附錄後面的同比變化情況，您會發現我們的舉措已產生約 6.25 億美元的生產力，這體現在 '23 年至 '24 年的期間。

That's on top of the market improvements of $740 million.

這是在 7.4 億美元的市場改善基礎上的額外支出。

So when you look at the deltas, we do have about $50 million of headwinds related to lower value-add product premiums and about $250 million other headwinds related to inflation and costs outside the program.

因此，當您查看增量時，我們確實面臨與降低增值產品溢價相關的約 5000 萬美元的不利因素，以及與通貨膨脹和計劃外成本相關的約 2.5 億美元的其他不利因素。

So we have a net delivery that's very apparent in the bridge of over $300 million.

因此，我們的淨交付額非常明顯，超過了 3 億美元。

And that's the beauty of that bridge, right?

這就是那座橋的美麗之處，對吧？

There's puts and takes.

有得有失。

We have a massive effort in place to continuously improve the company, but the bridge spells out exactly what we ended up getting.

我們付出了巨大的努力來持續改善公司，但這座橋樑清楚地表明了我們最終得到了什麼。

And so it bridges the earnings to earnings, and it's pretty clear there.

這樣，它就將收益與收益聯繫起來了，這一點非常清晰。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then secondly just on CapEx.

其次僅討論資本支出。

So your 2025 CapEx guidance is probably a little bit higher than I think many in the market had expected.

因此，我認為您對 2025 年資本支出的預期可能比市場上許多人的預期要高一些。

And Bill, you mentioned that there's some substantial projects that are contributing to the high sustaining CapEx for 2025 and it's up nearly $200 million versus 2024.

比爾，您提到，一些重大項目將為 2025 年的高持續資本支出做出貢獻，與 2024 年相比，將增加近 2 億美元。

How do we think about where that trends after 2025?

我們如何看待2025年以後的趨勢？

So is it going to be a big lump of CapEx in 2025 and then it reverts back to somewhere normalized level in 2026?

那麼，2025 年資本支出是否會大幅增加，然後在 2026 年恢復正常？

And then what is that more normalized level?

那麼更加規範化的層次是什麼呢？

How should we think about CapEx kind of through the cycle?

我們該如何看待整個週期內的資本支出？

Where should it be aside from your growth?

除了你的成長之外它應該在哪裡？

So, Chris, let me take this one.

那麼，克里斯，讓我來接手這個。

There's a couple of moving components because of the changes between sustaining and return-seeking.

由於維持和尋求回報之間的變化，存在一些移動組件。

But if you think in 2024, we were guiding to about $600 million in expected CapEx.

但如果你想想 2024 年，我們預期資本支出約為 6 億美元。

We did underspend that a bit.

我們的支出確實有點少。

However, we're thinking of it as going from $600 million up to $700 million.

然而，我們考慮將這一數字從 6 億美元增加到 7 億美元。

And we have been guiding that we would add at least $50 million in the next two years related to the mine moves.

我們一直計劃在未來兩年內增加至少 5,000 萬美元與礦場搬遷相關的投資。

As it turns out, we're adding $70 million in '25.

事實證明，我們在 25 年增加了 7000 萬美元。

I don't yet have the number for '26 on the mine moves, but you can expect that that will be significant.

我還沒有 26 年礦井移動的數字，但你可以預料到，這個數字將會十分可觀。

The mine moves will take three-ish years to complete, so we would be elevated during that time.

礦井搬遷大約需要三年時間才能完成，因此在此期間我們的水平會得到提升。

Okay.

好的。

So that's 70% of the, I think, you said $185 million increase, right?

所以我想這就是您所說的 1.85 億美元增幅的 70%，對嗎？

Is the other $115 million all kind of one-off 2025 items that we should expect to reverse in 2026?

其餘 1.15 億美元是否都是 2025 年的一次性項目，我們應該預期在 2026 年逆轉？

Or are they just -- I mean, I understand there's a lot of moving parts.

或者它們只是——我的意思是，我知道有很多活動部件。

Just trying to think about where that might go even with the mine CapEx that you're spending.

只是想想想，即使您花了礦山資本支出，這些錢可能會流向何處。

Yes, we have some opportunities with sustaining CapEx now to really improve our business.

是的，我們現在有一些機會透過維持資本支出來真正改善我們的業務。

If you look at the projects that we mentioned, Juruti is going through an energy transition or connecting them to the grid there.

如果你看看我們提到的項目，你會發現 Juruti 正在進行能源轉型或將其連接到那裡的電網。

We have a new ship unloader filling in in Canada, that's significant expense, and then we also have a bauxite reclaimer in Western Australia.

我們在加拿大安裝了一台新的卸船機，這是一筆不小的開支，另外我們在西澳大利亞還有一台鋁土礦回收機。

So maybe it's timing, but we absolutely have an opportunity now to really improve the business.

所以也許是時機問題，但我們現在絕對有機會真正改善業務。

And so while we have the cash available, we are going to put it into the business.

因此，只要我們有現金，我們就會將其投入業務。

Michael Dudas, Vertical Research.

邁克爾·杜達斯（Michael Dudas），垂直研究。

Bill, as you put forth your outlook for 2025 with regard to volumes and shipments, et cetera, maybe you could share like, are you anticipating in the cycle, tariffs aside, a recovery year, a more normalized year?

比爾，當您提出 2025 年銷量和出貨量等方面的展望時，也許您可以分享一下，除了關稅之外，您是否預計 2025 年將是復甦年，還是更加正常化的一年？

Like what's the sense from the client base and what you're seeing about on the demand front where the cycle might be here as we move forward just from the overall outlook for, say, the aluminum industry?

例如，從客戶群的感覺來看，在需求方面您怎麼看？

So let me start with aluminum and we'll just briefly hit on alumina and bauxite.

因此，我先從鋁開始，我們將簡單介紹一下氧化鋁和鋁土礦。

But as we look forward on alumina, we are seeing global demand growth at roughly 2% on a growth on a year-over-year basis.

但展望氧化鋁，我們看到全球需求年增約 2%。

That breaks down roughly of rest of world of 3% and China at approximately 1%.

其中，世界其他地區約佔 3%，中國約佔 1%。

I'm rounding these numbers a little bit from the exact numbers, but it gives you an indication of what type of growth that we're seeing.

我將這些數字與確切數字稍微進行了四捨五入，但它可以讓您了解我們看到的增長類型。

Rest of world growth is actually pretty strong.

世界其他地區的成長實際上相當強勁。

China growth at 1% is historically low, but we'll see whether China takes any action around stimulus.

中國 1% 的經濟成長處於歷史低點，但我們將拭目以待中國是否會採取任何刺激措施。

And to me, potentially, that's upside.

對我來說，這可能是件好事。

Then if I look at the rest of the world demand picture and we go kind of end market by end market, we continue to see demand strength in packaging.

然後，如果我看一下世界其他地區的需求情況，並且我們逐個終端市場地進行觀察，我們會繼續看到包裝方面的需求強勁。

We continue to see demand strength in electrical conductor and electrical distribution.

我們持續看到電導體和電力分配的需求強勁。

The automotive space is a little bit mixed.

汽車領域的情況有點混亂。

We are seeing strength in North America with a little bit of weakness in Europe.

我們看到北美表現強勁，而歐洲則略顯疲軟。

And then building construction, which is the largest demand driver globally for aluminum is still fairly weak.

然後，作為全球鋁需求最大的驅動力，建築業仍然相當疲軟。

And building construction will be based on what happens with interest rates.

建築施工將根據利率的變化而進行。

And I know a lot of people were anticipating that interest rates would be lower in 2025.

我知道很多人預計 2025 年利率會更低。

Just from a mathematics perspective, it looks like you'll be, on average, a little bit lower unless rates go higher from here.

僅從數學角度來看，除非利率從現在開始上升，否則平均而言，利率會稍微低一些。

And we think that potentially offers some upside on the demand side.

我們認為這可能會為需求方面帶來一些好處。

So that's the markets.

這就是市場。

That's very helpful, Bill.

這非常有幫助，比爾。

And then maybe just a follow up.

然後可能只是一個後續行動。

Do you think the market, as you're getting ready for it, do you think the market is expecting the tariffs that we're anticipating?

您是否認為，在為此做好準備的同時，市場是否預期到我們預期的關稅？

Do you see a sense from the client base, market indices?

您是否從客戶群和市場指數中看出了什麼？

How you're thinking about this?

您對此有何看法？

And how quickly or how rapidly can the industry kind of adjust to these dynamics since they seem to be happening at pretty breakneck speed here as we start the new administration?

隨著新政府的上台，這些動態似乎正以驚人的速度發生，那麼產業能夠多快或多迅速地適應這些動態呢？

So I'm going to give you a little bit of a non-answer, and it's just because there's not a lot of clarity around what the market is expecting.

因此我將給你一個非答案，這只是因為市場預期並不十分明確。

You look at the Midwest premium in the US, it has gone from something like $0.18 in November, December timeframe to $0.24 today.

看看美國中西部的溢價，它已經從11月、12月的0.18美元左右漲到了今天的0.24美元。

So is it anticipating some type of tariffs?

那麼它是否預計會徵收某種類型的關稅？

It may be anticipating some type of tariff.

它可能正在預期某種類型的關稅。

What it's not anticipating is a 25% tariff.

它沒有預料到的是25%的關稅。

That would have a massive step-up in overall Midwest premium.

這將大幅提升中西部地區整體的保費水準。

So our customers -- and it's a question that Molly and I were just talking with our commercial team over the last couple of days.

所以我們的客戶——這也是我和莫莉過去幾天剛與我們的商務團隊討論的問題。

Our customers are in the same spot we're in.

我們的客戶和我們在同一個地方。

They don't know what to do as far as tariffs.

他們不知道在關稅方面該怎麼辦。

They're not necessarily doing significant repositioning of metal because they just simply don't know.

他們不一定會對金屬進行重大的重新定位，因為他們根本不知道。

So we'll wait to see what comes of it.

因此我們將拭目以待，看看結果如何。

As far as how quickly things will turn, once the tariffs go into place, you will, I believe, immediately see a bump-up in the Midwest premium as soon as the tariffs take effect.

至於情況會以多快的速度發生變化，一旦關稅生效，我相信，你會立即看到中西部溢價上漲。

And then over time, metal will flow, and we think it'll take, what do we say, one to two quarters that it will take time for metal to flow out of other regions if there is a tariff differential.

然後隨著時間的推移，金屬將會流動，我們認為，如果存在關稅差異，金屬從其他地區流出將需要一到兩個季度的時間。

So we're speaking about a situation where Canada has a 25% tariff and the rest of the world has a 10% tariff.

所以我們談論的情況是加拿大的關稅為 25%，而世界其他國家的關稅為 10%。

We will see trade flows over the course of, let's say, half of the year, have significant impacts but it will start immediately.

我們將看到，比如說，半年內的貿易流動將產生重大影響，但它將立即開始。

Bill, that was a great non-answer.

比爾，這是一個糟糕的答案。

I appreciate it.

我很感激。

Timna Tanners, Wolfe Research.

坦納斯（Timna Tanners），沃爾夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）。

Wanted to expand a little bit, I know you talked about use of cash debt pay down's a priority but you did allude to some expansions.

想要稍微擴展一下，我知道您談到使用現金償還債務是一個優先事項，但您確實提到了一些擴展。

And I know you've talked in the past about opportunity to revisit Warrick or Lista and others.

我知道您過去曾談到重訪沃里克、利斯塔和其他人的機會。

Given this really high aluminum price, is it just a matter of alumina prices or balance not being compelling?

鑑於鋁價如此之高，這僅僅是氧化鋁價格的問題還是平衡不夠引人注目？

Or what kind of decisions do you need to make to decide to restart in this environment?

或者你需要做出什麼樣的決定才能決定在這個環境中重新啟動？

So thanks for the question, Timna.

感謝 Timna 提出這個問題。

I hope you're doing well.

我希望你一切都好。

The first and foremost is we need some clarity around the tariff structure before we do anything with the US or Canadian assets or European assets.

首先，在對美國、加拿大或歐洲資產採取任何行動之前，我們需要先明確關稅結構。

We need clarity around tariffs.

我們需要明確關稅。

And then you hit upon one that is big alumina prices.

然後你會發現一個問題，那就是氧化鋁價格大幅上漲。

So as we look at potential -- the metal price may support additional capacity in a place like Lista, especially if we can get European energy prices at a reasonable level.

因此，當我們看潛力時——金屬價格可能會支持像 Lista 這樣的地方的額外產能，特別是如果我們能夠將歐洲能源價格維持在合理水平的話。

But really factoring alumina, there's an opportunity cost of consuming alumina in a place like Lista that we can turn around and sell at $570 a ton.

但實際上考慮到氧化鋁，在像 Lista 這樣的地方消費氧化鋁存在機會成本，我們可以以每噸 570 美元的價格轉手出售。

So as we always do, once we get clarity around the tariffs, we'll factor in exchange rates, alumina prices, aluminum prices, and most importantly, energy prices to make a determination, specifically around Lista and Warrick.

因此，正如我們一貫所做的那樣，一旦我們明確了關稅問題，我們就會考慮匯率、氧化鋁價格、鋁價格，以及最重要的能源價格來做出決定，特別是圍繞 Lista 和 Warrick。

Those are the two places that we have excess capacity that could be restarted.

這兩個地方我們的過剩產能可以重新啟動。

Okay, helpful.

好的，很有幫助。

I also wanted to touch base on your technology initiatives as far as CapEx use.

我也想了解你們在資本支出使用上的技術舉措。

I know in the past, those were a big focus and there wasn't much emphasis in this presentation on some of the initiatives you've detailed in the past.

我知道，在過去，這些都是重點關注的焦點，而本次演講並沒有過度強調您過去詳述的一些舉措。

So any update can you provide for us?

那麼您能為我們提供任何更新資訊嗎？

Would those be kind of in line for capital uses or are they pushed out a bit?

這些是否符合資本用途，或者是否被稍微推遲了？

So before Molly answers the numbers question, I do want to give you some insight into our thinking around our three key technology programs.

因此，在 Molly 回答數位問題之前，我確實想讓您了解我們對三個關鍵技術項目的想法。

ELYSIS in 2024 was a little bit of a disappointment in that it did not deliver the start of 450 Ka cells in 2024.

2024 年的 ELYSIS 有點令人失望，因為它未能在 2024 年啟動 450 Ka 電池的發射。

We anticipate that in 2025, we will have a 450 Ka cell started in ELYSIS.

我們預計在 2025 年，我們將在 ELYSIS 中啟動一個 450 Ka 單元。

So that's the anticipation there.

這就是我們的期待。

When I look at Australia, we're making progress in Australia.

當我看澳大利亞時，我們發現我們在澳大利亞正在取得進展。

We've gone from really a desktop-sized cell to a much larger cell, not commercially sized, not by any stretch, but we are stepping up the cell size in Australia.

我們的蜂窩尺寸已經從桌面型變為更大的蜂窩尺寸，雖然不是商業級尺寸，但我們正在澳大利亞加大蜂窩尺寸。

We're doing that at the Alcoa Technical Center.

我們正在美鋁技術中心進行這項工作。

And then in the refinery side, we are making progress on key technologies, for instance, electric calcination that are promising.

在煉油方面，我們在關鍵技術方面取得了進展，例如很有前景的電煅燒技術。

And so we're seeing that technology and looking at how we can apply it to our existing refineries to have a step change in both energy usage and carbon emissions.

因此，我們正在研究如何將其應用於我們現有的煉油廠，以逐步改變能源使用和碳排放。

So Molly, do you want to address the dollar question?

那麼莫莉，你想談談美元問題嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Timna, we do not have significant technology dollars.

蒂姆納，我們沒有大量的技術資金。

I don't have the Australia-specific rate handy but recall it's around $15 million.

我手頭上沒有澳洲的具體利率，但記得大約是 1500 萬美元。

And ELYSIS?

還有 ELYSIS？

No ELYSIS CapEx.

沒有 ELYSIS 資本支出。

Bill Peterson, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

This is Bennett on for Bill.

這是貝內特 (Bennett) 代替比爾 (Bill)。

If I could circle back to San Ciprián real quick, wondering what the feedback has been from the union and workforce regarding the MOU and proposed JV.

如果我可以快速回到聖西普里安，想知道工會和勞動力對於諒解備忘錄和擬議的合資企業的反饋如何。

Is this at all a bottleneck moving forward?

這是否是前進的瓶頸？

So the MOU is really fresh, right?

所以這份諒解備忘錄真的很新鮮，對嗎？

And so we had meetings with our employees and informed them of the MOU, but we are also being very balanced in the discussion around the MOU.

因此，我們與員工舉行了會議並向他們通報了諒解備忘錄，但我們在圍繞諒解備忘錄的討論中也保持了非常平衡的態度。

The MOU is, as I said, as I characterized it, is a real step forward in that we have support from the national and the regional governments.

正如我所說，這份諒解備忘錄是向前邁出的真正一步，因為我們得到了國家和地區政府的支持。

But there are still certain things that need to come into place in order for us to guarantee the restart of the smelter.

但為了確保冶煉廠的重啟，我們還需要做好一些準備。

So that's the communication that we've had with our employees and with the unions.

這就是我們與員工和工會之間的溝通。

And they've heard that directly from us at this point.

他們現在已經直接從我們這裡聽說了這一消息。

And then on permitting in Western Australia, has that public comment period begun?

那麼關於西澳大利亞的許可，公眾意見徵詢期是否已經開始了？

And what are the next milestones we should watch for after that?

那麼此後我們應該關注的下一個里程碑是什麼？

Go ahead, Molly.

繼續吧，莫莉。

So the public comment period, we expect to commence towards the end of the first quarter and go into the second quarter.

因此，我們預計公眾意見徵詢期將在第一季末開始並持續到第二季​​。

At this point, we're still on track for our approvals in 2026, and then the mine move and access to the upgraded bauxite no earlier than '27.

目前，我們仍有望在 2026 年獲得批准，並且最早在 2027 年完成礦場遷移並獲得升級後的鋁土礦開採權。

Congrats on the great quarter.

恭喜本季取得如此出色的成績。

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Oplinger for his closing remarks.

我想將會議交還給奧普林格先生，請他作結束語。

Thanks, Gary, and thank you, all, for joining our call.

謝謝，加里，也謝謝大家參加我們的電話會議。

Molly and I look forward to sharing further progress when we speak again in April.

莫莉和我期待在四月再次交談時分享進一步的進展。

Thank you.

謝謝。

The conference has now concluded.

會議現已結束。

Thank you for attending today's presentation.

感謝您參加今天的演講。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。