美國鋁公司 (AA) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation First Quarter 2024 Earnings Presentation and Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎來到美鋁公司 2024 年第一季財報和電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to James Dwyer, Vice President, Investor Relations and Pension Investments. Please go ahead.

現在我想將會議交給投資者關係和退休金投資副總裁 James Dwyer。請繼續。

Thank you, and good day, everyone. I'm joined today by William Oplinger, Alcoa Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer; and Molly Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Bill and Molly.

謝謝大家，祝大家有美好的一天。今天，美國鋁業公司總裁兼執行長威廉·奧普林格 (William Oplinger) 也加入了我的行列。執行副總裁兼財務長莫莉‧比爾曼 (Molly Beerman)。我們將在比爾和莫莉發表評論後回答您的問題。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與未來事件和預期相關的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到各種假設和警告的影響。可能導致公司實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異的因素已包含在今天的簡報和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。

In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. For historical non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation. We have not presented quantitative reconciliations of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures for reasons noted on this slide. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA.

此外，我們也在本簡報中納入了一些非公認會計準則財務指標。對於歷史非 GAAP 財務指標，可以在今天簡報的附錄中找到與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。由於本投影片中所述的原因，我們尚未提供某些前瞻性非公認會計原則財務指標的定量調節表。我們今天討論中提及的 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA。

Finally, as previously announced, the earnings press release and slide presentation are available on our website. With that, here's Bill.

最後，如同先前所宣布的，收益新聞稿和幻燈片簡報可在我們的網站上取得。說到這裡，比爾來了。

Thanks, Jim, and welcome, everyone, to our first quarter 2024 earnings call. It's a pleasure to discuss our recent activities and performance with you today. Let's start with the transaction that we announced in late February, our proposed acquisition of Alumina Limited, which would give Alcoa 100% ownership in the Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals, or AWAC, joint venture. In the all-stock transaction, Alumina Limited shareholders would receive 0.02854 Alcoa shares for each Alumina Limited share.

謝謝吉姆，歡迎大家參加我們的 2024 年第一季財報電話會議。很高興今天與您討論我們最近的活動和表現。讓我們從我們在 2 月底宣布的交易開始，即我們擬收購 Alumina Limited，這將使美鋁擁有 Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals（簡稱 AWAC）合資企業 100% 的所有權。在全股票交易中，Alumina Limited 股東每股 Alumina Limited 股票將獲得 0.02854 股 Alcoa 股票。

Based on Alcoa's and Alumina Limited's closing prices as of February 23, 2024, the agreed ratio implied an equity value of approximately $2.2 billion for Alumina Limited and a premium of 13.1% to Alumina Limited share price. Today, through a complex web holdings at a subsegment level, Alumina Limited shareholders have exposure to 40% of only the AWAC bauxite alumina and aluminum assets. Upon completion of the transaction, Alumina Limited shareholders will own 31.25% and Alcoa shareholders would own 68.75% of the combined company on a fully diluted basis. We believe the acquisition will deliver immediate and significant value for both companies' shareholders and it's the right path forward for both Alcoa and Alumina Limited.

根據美鋁公司和 Alumina Limited 截至 2024 年 2 月 23 日的收盤價，商定的比率意味著 Alumina Limited 的股權價值約為 22 億美元，較 Alumina Limited 的股價溢價 13.1%。如今，透過子部門層面的複雜網路控股，Alumina Limited 股東僅持有 AWAC 鋁土礦氧化鋁和鋁資產的 40%。交易完成後，以完全稀釋計算，Alumina Limited 股東將持有合併後公司 31.25% 的股份，Alcoa 股東將持有合併後公司 68.75% 的股份。我們相信，此次收購將為兩家公司的股東帶來直接和重大的價值，這對美鋁和氧化鋁有限公司來說都是正確的前進道路。

Alumina Limited shareholders will participate in the upside potential of a stronger, better capitalized company with a larger and more diversified upstream aluminum portfolio. Alcoa offers a full suite of low carbon and recycled content products and has long-term technology projects under development to transform the upstream aluminum value chain. Additionally, Alcoa shares will be traded in Australia through a secondary listing on the Australian Securities Exchange, or ASX, via CHESS Depositary Interest, or CDI.

Alumina Limited 的股東將分享這家更強大、資本更好、擁有更大、更多元化上游鋁產品組合的公司的上升潛力。美鋁提供全套低碳和可回收成分產品，並正在開發長期技術項目，以改造上游鋁價值鏈。此外，美鋁股票將透過 CHESS 存託利息 (CDI) 在澳洲證券交易所 (ASX) 進行二次上市，在澳洲進行交易。

And as stated earlier, it elevates the ownership position of Alumina Limited shareholders and provides them with a premium over the recent share price for their noncontrolling interest. For Alcoa stockholders, the transaction increases Alcoa's economic interest in our core Tier 1 bauxite and alumina assets and simplifies governance, resulting in greater operational flexibility and strategic optionality. It advances our position as the global pure-play upstream aluminum company and enhances Alcoa's vertical integration along the value chain across bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminum smelting.

如前所述，它提高了 Alumina Limited 股東的所有權地位，並為其非控制權益提供了高於近期股價的溢價。對美鋁股東而言，此交易增加了美鋁對核心一級鋁土礦和氧化鋁資產的經濟利益，並簡化了治理，從而帶來更大的營運靈活性和戰略選擇性。它提升了我們作為全球純上游鋁公司的地位，並增強了美鋁公司在鋁土礦開採、氧化鋁精煉和鋁冶煉價值鏈上的垂直整合。

Alcoa would significantly increase its ownership in 5 of the 20 largest bauxite mines and 5 of the 20 largest alumina refineries globally, excluding China. Following this transaction, Alcoa will be better positioned to continue our long-term plan of investing in Australian bauxite mining and alumina refining. Together, Alcoa and Alumina Limited shareholders will benefit several ways. There are tangible near-term cost synergies and potential for further organizational optimization, replacing the complex JV arrangement with a simpler, less expensive structure.

美鋁公司將大幅增加其在全球 20 個最大鋁土礦中的 5 個以及全球 20 個最大氧化鋁精煉廠中 5 個的所有權（不包括中國）。此次交易後，美鋁將能夠更好地繼續投資澳洲鋁土礦開採和氧化鋁精煉的長期計畫。美鋁公司和氧化鋁有限公司的股東將共同從多個方面受益。短期內有明顯的成本綜效和進一步組織優化的潛力，用更簡單、更便宜的結構取代複雜的合資安排。

We will be more efficient in executing decisions with a view to maximizing returns with fully aligned interest among Alcoa and former Alumina Limited shareholders. We remain fully committed to our capital allocation framework. The all-stock transaction preserves Alcoa's balance sheet strength and provides capital structure flexibility. As one company, we will continue to have opportunities to pay distributions to shareholders while also transforming the portfolio and positioning ourselves for growth, deploying capital to maximize value creation. So in sum, we believe this is the right deal for Alumina Limited shareholders, for Alcoa shareholders and our broader stakeholders and communities. We are confident the transaction will build on our leading position as a global pure-play aluminum company and improve our ability to execute on long-term strategies and growth opportunities.

我們將更有效地執行決策，以實現美國鋁業和前 Alumina Limited 股東利益完全一致的回報最大化。我們仍然完全致力於我們的資本配置框架。全股票交易保留了美鋁的資產負債表實力並提供了資本結構的靈活性。作為一家公司，我們將繼續有機會向股東支付股息，同時轉變投資組合併為成長做好準備，部署資本以最大限度地創造價值。總而言之，我們相信這對 Alumina Limited 股東、美國鋁業股東以及我們更廣泛的利害關係人和社區來說都是正確的交易。我們相信，此交易將鞏固我們作為全球純鋁公司的領先地位，並提高我們執行長期策略和成長機會的能力。

Finally, a quick note on transaction timing. We expect to close the transaction in the third quarter. In the second quarter, we expect that Alcoa will be filing a proxy statement and Alumina Limited will be filing a scheme booklet in connection with the transaction. There are also government approvals that we are seeking in the second and third quarters, which include, in Australia, the Foreign Investment Review Board in the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission, and in Brazil, the Brazil Administrative Council for Economic Defense. We expect to apply for our ASX listing in May, and finally, but most importantly, the shareholder votes to approve the transaction and issue an exchange shares are expected to take place in the third quarter.

最後，簡單說明一下交易時間。我們預計在第三季完成交易。在第二季度，我們預計美國鋁業公司將提交一份委託書，氧化鋁有限公司將提交一份與交易相關的計畫手冊。我們也在第二季和第三季尋求政府批准，其中包括澳洲競爭和消費者委員會的外國投資審查委員會，以及巴西的巴西經濟防禦行政委員會。我們預計將於 5 月申請在澳洲證券交易所上市，最後但最重要的是，股東投票批准交易並發行交易所股票預計將在第三季進行。

Now let's talk about the first quarter. It was a quarter. First and foremost, we had no fatal or serious injuries in the first quarter. Our key lagging indicators, days away restricted time, total recordable injuries and all injury rates all improved. The improving safety performance is driven by a concerted focus on safety across the company and by using programs that include managing critical risks and increasing the positive impact of our leaders spending time in the field. No matter what, safety is always our first priority.

現在我們來談談第一季。那是四分之一。首先也是最重要的是，第一季我們沒有出現致命或重傷。我們的關鍵滯後指標、限制時間天數、可記錄傷病總數和所有傷病率均有所改善。安全績效的提高是透過全公司對安全的一致關注以及使用包括管理關鍵風險和增加領導者在現場工作的積極影響等計劃來推動的。無論如何，安全始終是我們的首要任務。

Other items to note in the quarter, in addition to announcing the Alumina Limited acquisition, we continued efforts to find a long-term solution for the San Ciprián complex and we've started a process to potentially sell the facility. We completed the restart of one potline at Warrick, and we set records for quarterly production rates at 2 smelters, ABI and Mosjøen. We fully deployed the $100 million productivity and competitiveness program, and we announced the Kwinana full curtailment. Finally, in March, we issued a $750 million green bond to support our cash position using Alcoa's new green financing framework.

本季度需要注意的其他事項，除了宣布收購 Alumina Limited 之外，我們還繼續努力為聖西普里安綜合體尋找長期解決方案，並且我們已經開始了可能出售該設施的流程。我們完成了 Warrick 一條電解槽生產線的重啟，並在 ABI 和 Mosjen 兩家冶煉廠創下了季度生產力記錄。我們全面部署了 1 億美元的生產力和競爭力計劃，並宣布奎納納全面限電。最後，在 3 月份，我們利用美鋁新的綠色融資框架發行了 7.5 億美元的綠色債券，以支持我們的現金狀況。

Now I'll turn it over to Molly to take us through the financials.

現在我將把它交給莫莉，讓她帶我們了解財務狀況。

Thank you, Bill. Revenue was flat sequentially at $2.6 billion. In the Alumina segment, third-party revenue increased 6% due to higher average realized third-party price for alumina and higher shipments. In the Aluminum segment, third-party revenue decreased 3% due to lower average realized third-party price for aluminum. The net loss attributable to Alcoa changed $102 million to $252 million, and the loss per share changed from $0.84 to $1.41. On an adjusted basis, the net loss attributable to Alcoa was $145 million or $0.81. The difference is primarily related to the restructuring costs and other charges for the Kwinana curtailment. Adjusted EBITDA increased $43 million to $132 million.

謝謝你，比爾。營收與上一季持平，為 26 億美元。在氧化鋁領域，由於氧化鋁第三方平均實現價格上漲和出貨量增加，第三方收入增加了 6%。在鋁業務領域，由於鋁的平均第三方實現價格較低，第三方收入下降了 3%。美國鋁業的淨虧損從 1.02 億美元變為 2.52 億美元，每股虧損從 0.84 美元變為 1.41 美元。調整後，美國鋁業公司的淨虧損為 1.45 億美元，即 0.81 美元。差異主要與奎納納棄電的重組成本和其他費用有關。調整後 EBITDA 增加 4,300 萬美元，達到 1.32 億美元。

Let's look at the key drivers of EBITDA. First quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA increased $43 million, primarily due to improved energy costs. Raw material and other cost benefits were offset by volume and production costs. The unfavorable production costs included the single quarter recognition of Section 45X of the Inflation Reduction Act credits for Warrick and Massena, while last quarter included impacts for the full year based on the timing of approval. Alumina segment EBITDA increased $55 million sequentially, primarily due to higher alumina prices and favorable currency impacts. Lower raw material and energy costs mostly offset higher production costs and lower shipment volumes in Brazil and Australia.

讓我們看看 EBITDA 的主要驅動因素。 2024 年第一季調整後 EBITDA 增加了 4,300 萬美元，主要是由於能源成本的改善。原材料和其他成本效益被產量和生產成本所抵消。不利的生產成本包括單季承認《通貨膨脹減少法案》第 45X 條對 Warrick 和 Massena 的抵免，而上個季度則包括根據批准時間對全年的影響。氧化鋁部門 EBITDA 環比增長 5500 萬美元，主要是由於氧化鋁價格上漲和有利的貨幣影響。較低的原材料和能源成本主要抵消了巴西和澳洲較高的生產成本和較低的出貨量。

Aluminum segment declined $30 million sequentially. While we also saw a substantial benefit from lower energy and raw material costs, those benefits were more than offset by unfavorable currency and metal prices, primarily due to the end of the metal hedge program at Alumar. Other factors are higher alumina costs and unfavorable reduction costs, including impacts from the just mentioned 45X credits. Outside the segments, transformation demolition costs, other corporate costs and intersegment eliminations all improved.

鋁部門連續下降 3000 萬美元。雖然我們也看到了能源和原材料成本下降的巨大好處，但這些好處被不利的貨幣和金屬價格所抵消，這主要是由於 Alumar 金屬對沖計劃的結束。其他因素包括較高的氧化鋁成本和不利的減排成本，包括剛剛提到的 45X 信用的影響。分部之外，轉型拆除成本、其他企業成本及分部間抵銷均有所改善。

Let's look at cash movements within the first quarter on the next slide. In the first quarter, working capital changes, capital expenditures and environmental and ARO payments were the largest uses of cash. Working capital as a significant use of cash in the first quarter is typical for us. However, the first quarter 2024 increase was significantly lower than the last 2 years' levels. Capital spend and environmental and ARO payments were both in line with our 2024 outlook, although the spend is not ratable for the year. Sources of cash in the quarter include the debt issuance of $750 million. The additional liquidity provides us with the flexibility needed to continue to execute the actions, which further strengthen our asset portfolio.

讓我們在下一張投影片上看看第一季的現金變動。第一季度，營運資本變化、資本支出以及環境和 ARO 付款是現金的最大用途。營運資金作為第一季現金的重要使用對我們來說是典型的。然而，2024 年第一季的增幅明顯低於過去兩年的水平。資本支出以及環境和 ARO 付款均符合我們 2024 年的展望，儘管該年度的支出未進行評級。本季的現金來源包括發行 7.5 億美元的債務。額外的流動性為我們提供了繼續執行行動所需的靈活性，從而進一步加強了我們的資產組合。

In the longer term, our capital allocation framework remains unchanged and focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet. In regard to our debt issuance, this is the first issue under our new green finance framework, which prioritizes expenditures and climate change mitigation through projects in circular or low carbon products and pollution-prevention technologies while supporting renewable energy and water management. Proceeds from the issue cover both new and existing decarbonization and water management projects; our research and development expenses related to our breakthrough technologies ELYSIS, ASTRAEA and Refinery of the Future; purchases of renewable energy as well as certain costs related to the reduction of our low-carbon alumina and aluminum products.

從長遠來看，我們的資本配置框架保持不變，重點是維持強勁的資產負債表。就我們的債務發行而言，這是我們新的綠色金融框架下的第一個問題，該框架優先考慮透過循環或低碳產品和污染防治技術項目來支出和減緩氣候變化，同時支持再生能源和水資源管理。此次發行的收益涵蓋新的和現有的脫碳和水管理項目；我們與突破性技術 ELYSIS、ASTRAEA 和未來煉油廠相關的研發費用；購買再生能源以及與減少低碳氧化鋁和鋁產品相關的某些成本。

Under the green finance framework, the net proceeds of a green financing debt can be allocated to qualifying expenditures on a 2-year look back and 3-year look forward. We do not expect to allocate part of the net proceeds to significant capital investments in our breakthrough technologies as we do not expect those to occur in the remainder of this decade.

在綠色金融框架下，綠色融資債務的淨收益可以分配給兩年回顧和三年展望的合格支出。我們預計不會將部分淨收益分配給突破性技術的重大資本投資，因為我們預計這些不會在本十年的剩餘時間內發生。

Moving on to other key financial metrics. Our key financial metrics are consistent with our earnings results. Year-to-date return on equity was negative 14.5%. Days working capital increased 8 days to 47 days sequentially, primarily due to higher accounts receivable.

轉向其他關鍵財務指標。我們的主要財務指標與我們的獲利結果一致。年初至今股本回報率為負 14.5%。營運資金天數比上一季增加 8 天，達到 47 天，主要是因為應收帳款增加。

Our fourth quarter dividend added $19 million to stockholder capital returns. While free cash flow plus net noncontrolling interest contributions was negative for the quarter at $269 million, impacted by the typical first quarter working capital build, the cash balance increased $500 million to $1.4 billion, including proceeds from the debt issuance.

我們第四季的股利為股東資本回報增加了 1,900 萬美元。儘管受第一季典型營運資本建設的影響，本季自由現金流加上淨非控股利息貢獻為負數 2.69 億美元，但現金餘額增加了 5 億美元，達到 14 億美元，其中包括債務發行收益。

Let's turn to the outlook for the second quarter. We have one update to our full year outlook on the income statement. Interest expense is changing from $110 million to $145 million in light of our debt issue.

讓我們轉向第二季度的展望。我們對損益表的全年展望進行了更新。鑑於我們的債務問題，利息支出從 1.1 億美元變為 1.45 億美元。

Regarding sequential changes for the second quarter. In the Alumina segment, we expect impact of approximately $20 million related to higher seasonal maintenance and other mining costs for the Australian operations. In the Aluminum segment, we expect favorable raw material and production costs to fully offset unfavorable energy impacts. Alumina cost in the Aluminum segment are expected to be unfavorable by $15 million.

關於第二季的連續變化。在氧化鋁領域，我們預計澳洲業務的季節性維護和其他採礦成本增加將產生約 2000 萬美元的影響。在鋁業，我們預計有利的原材料和生產成本將完全抵消不利的能源影響。鋁業的氧化鋁成本預計將下降 1500 萬美元。

Below EBITDA, note that first quarter other expenses included onetime negative impacts from foreign currency losses of approximately $20 million. Based on last week's pricing, we expect second quarter 2024 operational tax expense to approximate $40 million to $50 million.

請注意，在 EBITDA 下方，第一季的其他支出包括約 2,000 萬美元的外匯損失造成的負面影響。根據上週的定價，我們預計 2024 年第二季營運稅費用約為 4,000 萬至 5,000 萬美元。

Lastly, I'd like to provide a quick update on our near-term actions for profitability improvement as we guided last quarter. For the second quarter, we have locked in more of the $310 million year-over-year savings in raw material costs, although not as prominent from a sequential view. Our productivity and competitiveness initiatives are identified and being implemented. We are on track to deliver at a full run rate by the first quarter of 2025 as committed.

最後，我想快速介紹一下我們上季度所指導的近期獲利能力改善行動的最新情況。第二季度，我們鎖定了同比 3.1 億美元的原材料成本節省中的大部分，儘管從環比來看並不那麼突出。我們的生產力和競爭力措施已確定並正在實施。我們預計將按照承諾在 2025 年第一季全面交付。

The Warrick third line restart was completed at the end of March; however, additional actions have been identified and need to be deployed to achieve profitability. The smelter is not expected to have significant improvement in the second quarter, but is projecting an improved second half of 2024. The full improvement is not expected to be reached until the end of 2025.

沃里克三線重啟已於3月底完成；然而，已經確定並需要採取更多行動來實現盈利。該冶煉廠預計第二季不會有顯著改善，但預計 2024 年下半年會有所改善。

Kwinana curtailment is going according to plan, and we expect to start seeing some savings in the second half of 2024. Although stability continues to be a challenge at the Alumar smelter, we remain committed to delivering our near-term targets by the end of 2025.

Kwinana 限電正在按計劃進行，我們預計將在 2024 年下半年開始看到一些節省。

Now I'll turn it back to Bill.

現在我會把它轉回給比爾。

Thanks, Molly. The near-term markets are showing signs of improvement, and the long-term outlook remains very positive for both alumina and aluminum. For alumina, alumina prices recently reached a 2-year high. While demand has remained steady, near-term supply concerns have continued. Chinese refineries have curtailed capacity due to bauxite shortages and environmental issues. The fuel depot explosion in Guinea raises concerns about the security of supply for China's and the world's largest seaborne bauxite source. The Queensland Australia gas supply disruption as well as our announced curtailment of the Kwinana refinery has made Australian alumina supply less certain.

謝謝，莫莉。近期市場顯示出改善的跡象，氧化鋁和鋁的長期前景仍然非常樂觀。氧化鋁方面，近期氧化鋁價格創2年新高。儘管需求保持穩定，但近期供應擔憂仍在持續。由於鋁土礦短缺和環境問題，中國煉油廠削減了產能。幾內亞燃料庫爆炸引發了人們對中國和世界最大海運鋁土礦來源供應安全的擔憂。澳洲昆士蘭州天然氣供應中斷以及我們宣布的奎納納煉油廠的削減使澳洲氧化鋁供應變得更加不確定。

Long-term alumina demand is expected to grow alongside aluminum. But limited low-carbon energy sources and increasing reliance on seaborne bauxite supply, particularly for Chinese refineries, are expected to constrain the growth potential and cost competitiveness of future refineries. For aluminum, currently, demand is looking up. Demand in the automotive and electrical sectors have remained strong, and we are seeing signs of recovery in packaging. Building and construction remains the most challenged end market but is showing signs of stabilization, especially in North America.

預計氧化鋁的長期需求將與鋁一起成長。但有限的低碳能源和對海運鋁土礦供應的日益依賴（尤其是中國煉油廠）預計將限制未來煉油廠的成長潛力和成本競爭力。目前，鋁的需求正在上升。汽車和電氣行業的需求依然強勁，我們看到包裝行業復甦的跡象。建築業仍然是最具挑戰性的終端市場，但正在顯示出穩定的跡象，尤其是在北美。

In our order book, we see sales of VAP, or value-added products, increasing both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter. We are even seeing opportunities for spot sales across our portfolio.

在我們的訂單簿中，我們看到 VAP（加值產品）的銷售額年比和季比均有所成長。我們甚至在我們的產品組合中看到了現貨銷售的機會。

From a supply perspective, there are a few new projects coming online. Even considering the announced Yunnan restarts, China continues to hold to its 45 million metric ton production cap. So inventory days remain low, and unwanted Russian aluminum still makes up more than 90% of the LME inventory. The big news last week was that the U.S. and U.K. governments announced sanctions on Russian aluminum. The impact was to establish an import ban into the U.S. and the U.K. and restrict activity at the London Metal Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. This was the right decision, as Alcoa has consistently advocated, and we maintain that the EU should take action as well. As you might expect from this news, LME aluminum recently hit its highest level in a year and first quarter regional premiums in the U.S., Europe and Japan all increased sequentially.

從供應角度來看，有一些新項目上線。即使考慮到已宣布的雲南復工，中國仍繼續維持 4,500 萬噸的產量上限。因此，庫存天數仍然很低，不需要的俄羅斯鋁仍佔 LME 庫存的 90% 以上。上週的重大消息是美國和英國政府宣布對俄羅斯鋁業實施制裁。其影響是對美國和英國實施進口禁令，並限制倫敦金屬交易所和芝加哥商業交易所的活動。正如美國鋁業公司一貫主張的那樣，這是正確的決定，我們認為歐盟也應該採取行動。正如您可能從該消息中預期的那樣，LME 鋁最近觸及一年來的最高水平，美國、歐洲和日本的第一季區域溢價均較上季上漲。

Long term, we remain bullish. More aluminum, both primary and secondary, will be needed to drive the renewable energy transition and achieve global decarbonization goals. Today, there are not enough announced projects to meet that expected demand. And future projects face challenges finding renewable energy supplies amid expected increases in carbon emission costs. Even China is adding aluminum to its emission trading system, or ETS. In summary, alumina and aluminum markets are improving in the near term and our long-term outlook remains very positive.

長期來看，我們仍然看漲。需要更多的原鋁和二次鋁來推動再生能源轉型並實現全球脫碳目標。如今，已公佈的項目不足以滿足預期需求。在碳排放成本預期增加的情況下，未來的專案面臨著尋找再生能源供應的挑戰。甚至中國也將鋁納入其排放交易體系（ETS）。總之，氧化鋁和鋁市場近期正在改善，我們的長期前景仍然非常樂觀。

Now let's review key activities at Alcoa. We continue to make progress on key near-term actions as well as keeping momentum on long-term activities. Focusing on the near term, the overall outlook is positive. We're seeing further improvement in purchase prices for key raw materials. So if the current market outlook continues, our expectation is to exceed our savings target.

現在讓我們回顧一下美鋁的主要活動。我們繼續在關鍵的近期行動上取得進展，並保持長期活動的勢頭。著眼於近期，整體前景樂觀。我們看到主要原料的採購價格進一步改善。因此，如果當前的市場前景持續下去，我們的預期是超過我們的儲蓄目標。

We have deployed our productivity and competitiveness program and expect to realize savings in the coming quarters, with full run rate improvement of $100 million by the first quarter of 2025. The restart of one potline at Warrick is complete, and we remain optimistic that we will see additional IRA funding decided by the U.S. government sometime this year. The Kwinana full curtailment, which we announced in January, is on track, with all production to be stopped by the end of the second quarter. We expect to see resulting EBITDA improvement in the third quarter.

我們已經部署了我們的生產力和競爭力計劃，並預計在未來幾季實現節省，到2025 年第一季度，全面運行率將提高1 億美元。 Warrick 一條電解槽生產線的重啟已完成，我們仍然樂觀地認為，我們將請參閱美國政府今年某個時候決定的額外 IRA 資金。我們在一月份宣布的奎納納全面限產計劃正在按計劃進行，所有生產將在第二季末停止。我們預計第三季 EBITDA 將有所改善。

On a negative note, the Alumar restart has regressed. While we have solved a number of issues, we continue to struggle with equipment reliability and personnel experience, we have reinforced the leadership and expert teams in Brazil and are taking actions to improve its overall performance. San Ciprián is a focal point of our near-term actions. Consistent with the viability agreement, we restarted 32 pots in the first quarter. Our work is in 2 areas of focus: to take actions to make San Ciprián viable for the long term, and alternatively, to find a potential purchaser for the site.

不利的一面是，Alumar 的重啟已經倒退。雖然我們已經解決了許多問題，但我們仍然在設備可靠性和人員經驗方面遇到困難，我們加強了巴西的領導力和專家團隊，並採取行動提高其整體績效。聖西普里安是我們近期行動的焦點。根據可行性協議，我們在第一季重新啟動了 32 個專案。我們的工作重點有兩個領域：採取行動使聖西普里安長期可行，或為該地點尋找潛在買家。

We have completed the optimization study and delineated a modest set of potential short-term and medium-term improvement actions. We are working on implementing actions while preserving cash. Though purchase prices for energy and sales prices have improved, the business remains unviable, and we do not expect near-term government support to be forthcoming. We started a potential sale process for the entire location, both the smelter and the refinery, and we expect to complete the bid process by the end of June. Any long-term solution requires government and union support.

我們已經完成了優化研究，並描繪了一系列潛在的短期和中期改進行動。我們正在努力實施行動，同時保留現金。儘管能源購買價格和銷售價格有所改善，但該業務仍無法生存，我們預期政府短期內不會提供支援。我們啟動了整個地點（包括冶煉廠和精煉廠）的潛在出售流程，預計在 6 月底完成投標流程。任何長期解決方案都需要政府和工會的支持。

Consistent with all these actions and the current market environment, and barring reaching an acceptable outcome on either of these 2 paths, we expect cash to run out in the second half of 2024. At that point, Alcoa corporation will not provide further funds and hard decisions will need to be made.

與所有這些行動和當前的市場環境一致，除非在這兩條路徑中的任何一條上取得可接受的結果，我們預計現金將在2024 年下半年耗盡。進一步的資金和硬性支援。

As a company, we are very excited about the progress we are making on multiple fronts. Through the Alumina Limited deal, we are increasing the economic interest in assets we already control and operate in an all-stock transaction that benefits all parties. We have safely executed an impressive list of operational activities to improve the business and we have more actions to complete, and both the alumina and aluminum markets are on the upswing. This is an exciting time to be at Alcoa.

作為一家公司，我們對在多個方面取得的進展感到非常興奮。透過 Alumina Limited 交易，我們正在增加我們已經控制和運營的資產的經濟利益，全股票交易使各方受益。我們已經安全地執行了一系列令人印象深刻的營運活動來改善業務，我們還有更多行動需要完成，氧化鋁和鋁市場正在上升。對於美鋁來說，這是一個令人興奮的時刻。

Operator, let's start the question-and-answer session.

接線員，我們開始問答環節。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today is from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Lucas Pipes 和 B. Riley。

Bill, first, to maybe start out on the macro side, a little bit higher level. With some of the changes that are expected on the power side and then the Chinese production cap, what's your view of kind of the relative market strength in aluminum versus alumina? And how should we see that in the context of the AWAC acquisition? And on AWAC, any view that you could share in terms of kind of synergies from a tax perspective and overhead.

比爾，首先，也許可以從宏觀開始，更高一點的水平。鑑於電力方面預計會發生一些變化以及中國的產量上限，您對鋁與氧化鋁的相對市場強度有何看法？在 AWAC 收購的背景下我們應該如何看待這一點？關於 AWAC，您可以從稅務角度和管理費用的角度分享任何有關協同效應的觀點。

Let me take the first question -- the second question first. The Alumina Limited deal is a long-term deal. It's a deal that we've been focused on for a while. And we think that it provides benefits to our shareholders and their shareholders and the communities that we work in. So the -- any near-term market dynamics really don't go into significant decision-making around the Alumina Limited deal.

讓我先回答第一個問題——第二個問題。氧化鋁有限公司的交易是一項長期交易。這是我們一段時間以來一直關注的交易。我們認為它為我們的股東及其股東以及我們工作的社區帶來了利益。

As far as the synergies go, fairly quickly, we can take out $12 million of overhead. And then there's potential synergies down the road on capital structure and being able to have debt in Australia. So there's some potential synergies there.

就綜效而言，我們很快就能消除 1,200 萬美元的管理費用。此外，資本結構和在澳洲擁有債務方面也存在潛在的協同效應。因此，存在一些潛在的協同效應。

We then step back to the original part of your question, the market dynamics for both alumina and aluminum are improving. I start with aluminum, we're seeing growth -- demand growth in all of our major markets, with the exception of European building construction. Everything else, so we're seeing demand growth on a year-over-year basis. That really is impacting the metal prices higher. It's also driving regional premiums higher in the Midwest and in Europe and in Japan. So good strong demand on the metal side.

然後我們回到你問題的最初部分，氧化鋁和鋁的市場動態都在改善。我從鋁開始，我們看到了成長——我們所有主要市場的需求成長，歐洲建築除外。其他一切，我們看到需求逐年增加。這確實影響了金屬價格的上漲。它也推動中西部、歐洲和日本的地區保費上漲。金屬方面的需求如此強勁。

In the case of alumina, as we referenced in our prepared remarks, some of the uncertainty around the raw materials on alumina, for instance, bauxite coming out of Guinea and the gas situation in Northern Australia, has driven alumina prices up at the same time also. So our view for 2024, just to bring it back to a summary, is that aluminum will be fairly in balance, although we're seeing stronger demand than what we had anticipated. And alumina should be in deficit in 2024, with some of the curtailments that we've seen, specifically also with the curtailment of Kwinana in June of this year.

In the case of alumina, as we referenced in our prepared remarks, some of the uncertainty around the raw materials on alumina, for instance, bauxite coming out of Guinea and the gas situation in Northern Australia, has driven alumina prices up at the same time也.因此，我們對 2024 年的看法是，鋁將相當平衡，儘管我們看到需求比我們預期的要強。由於我們已經看到了一些減產，特別是今年 6 月奎納納 (Kwinana) 的減產，2024 年氧化鋁應該會出現短缺。

And then there's been a lot of government support recently. If you look to the U.S., there's been DoE funding for new smelter. We'll see what the details bring. In Europe, there's been over $8 billion in public funding announced for the transition of the steel industry. You've invested a lot in new technologies such as ELYSIS and the Refinery of the Future. I would imagine your programs would be prime candidates for some of these government initiatives. So at this time, could your programs benefit? Is there anything in the pipeline? How do you think about all that?

最近政府也給予了許多支持。如果你看看美國，你會發現美國能源部為新冶煉廠提供了資金。我們將看看細節會帶來什麼。在歐洲，已宣佈為鋼鐵業轉型提供超過 80 億美元的公共資金。您在 ELYSIS 和未來煉油廠等新技術上投入了大量資金。我想你們的計畫將成為其中一些政府措施的主要候選人。那麼這個時候，你的程式能受益嗎？管道中有東西嗎？您如何看待這一切？

Lucas, we'll be looking at different forms of governmental support for our programs. However, one of the things to consider is that the implementation of our 3 breakthrough technologies will really be out post 2030. So any support that we would be looking for today would be on the R&D side. But any implementation or significant capital spend is really going into the next decade, and therefore, it doesn't match up well with the near-term governmental support.

盧卡斯，我們將考慮政府對我們計畫的不同形式的支持。然而，需要考慮的事情之一是，我們的 3 項突破性技術的實施將在 2030 年之後真正實現。但任何實施或重大資本支出實際上都會在下一個十年內進行，因此，它與近期政府的支持不太相符。

The next question is from Chris LaFemina with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Chris LaFemina。

I wanted to ask about closure costs. So first on Kwinana. I think you said $80 million of cash outflow to close the refinery in 2024 and $35 million more in 2025. I assume the $80 million in the second half of the year. But I'm wondering, first of all, in addition to that $115 million, if there's anything else to close Kwinana. That's my first question.

我想問一下關閉費用。首先是奎納納。我想你說的是 2024 年關閉煉油廠需要 8,000 萬美元的現金流出，2025 年還要增加 3,500 萬美元。但我首先想知道，除了 1.15 億美元之外，是否還有其他措施可以關閉 Kwinana。這是我的第一個問題。

Chris, let's clarify that those are curtailment costs and not closure costs. So most of those are severance costs and other environmental related to setting up the water treatment. So that's what you're seeing there. Our closure cost would be significantly more, but we've not made a decision. And that's, a decision at Kwinana will take some time if we were to go there, that we do need approvals actually to close permanently.

克里斯，讓我們澄清一下，這些是削減成本，而不是關閉成本。因此，其中大部分是遣散費和與設置水處理相關的其他環境費用。這就是你所看到的。我們的關閉成本會高得多，但我們還沒有做出決定。也就是說，如果我們要去奎納納，我們需要一些時間才能做出決定，我們確實需要批准才能永久關閉。

And then what about -- so kind of same question in San Ciprián. I'm not sure if I've seen any kind of estimates of what the cost would be. If you -- I mean, obviously, a sale might be a better outcome, but if you ultimately do close the refinery and the smelter, can you give us an estimate as to what that might cost?

那麼在聖西普里安也有同樣的問題呢？我不確定我是否見過任何對成本的估計。如果你——我的意思是，顯然，出售可能是一個更好的結果，但如果你最終關閉煉油廠和冶煉廠，你能給我們估算一下這可能會花費多少錢嗎？

In terms of a refinery closure without factoring in severance because in Spain, that's very difficult to estimate, you can think of that refinery closure is about a $200 million cost, a smelter could be between 25 and 50. And that would be on the environmental and ARO side, again, not counting severance because of a very different situation on severance in Spain.

就關閉煉油廠而言，不考慮遣散費，因為在西班牙，這是很難估計的，你可以認為關閉煉油廠的成本約為2 億美元，冶煉廠的成本可能在25 到50 之間。將是對環境的影響ARO 方面再次不計算遣散費，因為西班牙的遣散費情況截然不同。

And Chris, if I could just jump in real quickly. I think it's a little premature to be talking about curtailment or closure costs around San Ciprián. We're focused on 2 things, specifically around the site in San Ciprián, one is viability. And trying to make that site viable and we're working on a series of actions to take cost out. But ultimately, viability of the smelter will be low-cost, sustainable green electricity.

克里斯，如果我能很快加入就好了。我認為現在談論聖西普蘭周圍的削減或關閉成本還為時過早。我們專注於兩件事，特別是在聖西普里安的網站周圍，一是可行性。為了使網站可行，我們正在採取一系列行動來降低成本。但最終，冶煉廠的生存能力將是低成本、可持續的綠色電力。

And then secondly, we did announce in this quarter the -- launching a sale process, and we will go through that sale process through the second quarter and see if there are viable buyers for that site. Now we will not repeat some of the problems that we had in Avilés La Coruña. But -- and therefore, we're going to really focus on the viability of a potential buyer of that site. So it's a little premature at this point to talk of curtailment or closure costs. So I don't want to speculate there.

其次，我們確實在本季宣布啟動銷售流程，我們將在第二季完成該銷售流程，看看該網站是否有可行的買家。現在我們不會重複在阿維萊斯拉科魯尼亞遇到的一些問題。但是 - 因此，我們將真正關注該網站潛在買家的生存能力。因此，現在談論削減或關閉成本還為時過早。所以我不想在那裡猜測。

Understood. I'm just trying to figure out the different scenarios that might ultimately materialize there.

明白了。我只是想找出最終可能實現的不同場景。

The next question is from Alex Hacking with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Alex Hacking。

I guess, firstly, on working capital, any guidance there for the rest of the year. And then secondly, you mentioned that with raw material costs trending as they are, you might be able to exceed your savings targets. Is there any way of quantifying that? And how would that trade off against potentially higher energy costs that are linked to higher LME prices?

我想，首先是關於營運資金，以及今年剩餘時間的任何指導。其次，您提到，隨著原料成本的趨勢，您可能能夠超越您的節省目標。有什麼方法可以量化嗎？這將如何抵銷與倫敦金屬交易所價格上漲相關的潛在更高的能源成本？

So Alex, on the working capital, for 2024, we are targeting $1 billion level by the end of the year. We closed the quarter at $1.4 billion, and we are working aggressively down towards the $1 billion mark by the end of the year.

Alex，關於 2024 年的營運資金，我們的目標是到年底達到 10 億美元的水準。本季收盤價為 14 億美元，我們正在積極努力，爭取在年底前實現 10 億美元的目標。

In terms of raw materials, we don't have another number above the 310 year-over-year that we committed to, but we are seeing favorable results coming in now and we do expect to exceed that. If you look at caustic prices, we are definitely recognizing the benefits of the lower purchase prices from the second half of '23 into the first half of '24. And current purchase prices are just very slightly elevated, but very comparable to pre-pandemic levels. We are still seeing declines on coke and pitch. And while we have a 3-month lag in inventory there, we expect that to continue throughout 2024 with those coming down.

在原材料方面，我們沒有比我們承諾的 310 同比更高的數字，但我們現在看到了良好的結果，我們確實預計會超過這個數字。如果你看看苛性鹼的價格，我們肯定會認識到從 23 年下半年到 24 年上半年較低的採購價格帶來的好處。目前的購買價格只是略有上漲，但與大流行前的水平非常相似。我們仍然看到焦炭和瀝青的下降。雖然我們的庫存存在 3 個月的滯後，但我們預計這種情況將持續到 2024 年，庫存將下降。

Okay. And then just quickly on Alumar, it sounds like kind of switching over to EBITDA positive there, it's probably something that's more likely to happen now in 2025 and 2024. Is that fair? Or am I being too pessimistic?

好的。然後很快在 Alumar 上，聽起來有點像 EBITDA 為正，這可能更有可能在 2025 年和 2024 年發生。還是我太悲觀了？

I think it will depend on what metal price is. And as metal price has gone up, that's benefited the site. So it's going to depend there. And really in the case of Alumar, that site had been curtailed for about 8 years. And I think we just fundamentally underestimated how hard it was going to be to get that site back up and running, especially from a mechanical perspective, from the condition of some of the equipment there. So continue to work it, and it's delayed from where we thought it was going to be.

我認為這將取決於金屬價格。隨著金屬價格上漲，該網站受益匪淺。所以這取決於那裡。事實上，就 Alumar 而言，該網站已縮減了大約 8 年。我認為我們從根本上低估了讓該站點恢復並運行的難度，特別是從機械角度來看，從那裡的一些設備的狀況來看。所以繼續努力吧，但它比我們預期的要延遲了。

The next question is from Lawson Winder with Bank of America.

下一個問題來自美國銀行的勞森溫德。

I might just follow up on Alumar and just position it from the point of view of several years ago, 8 years ago, as you mentioned, when you took the decision to close it. I mean it was among some of the higher-cost smelters in the world. I mean is there any questioning now at this point whether it might make sense to abandon the restart? And then -- and looking at it from another way, is there any thought to that asset potentially being sold?

我可能會跟進 Alumar，並從幾年前、8 年前的角度來定位它，正如你所提到的，當時你決定關閉它。我的意思是它是世界上成本較高的冶煉廠之一。我的意思是，現在是否有人質疑放棄重啟是否有意義？然後，從另一個角度來看，是否考慮過可能出售該資產？

So as far as consideration of abandoning the restart, Lawson, as you can imagine in our jobs, both Molly and I, we constantly need to be revisiting the decisions that we've made and make sure that on a go-forward basis, the actions that we take makes sense. And so with that statement, we have looked at what are our options in Alumar. We still believe, given the power contract that we have, the fact that it's co-located with the refinery, the fact that it's in a part of the world where it needs aluminum, the business case is still soft on a go-forward basis to continue with the restart.

因此，就考慮放棄重啟而言，勞森，正如你在莫莉和我的工作中可以想像的那樣，我們需要不斷地重新審視我們所做的決定，並確保在前進的基礎上，我們採取的行動是有意義的。因此，透過這項聲明，我們研究了我們在 Alumar 的選擇。我們仍然相信，考慮到我們擁有的電力合約、它與煉油廠位於同一地點的事實、它位於世界上需要鋁的地區這一事實，商業案例在未來的基礎上仍然疲軟繼續重新啟動。

We are disappointed with the pace and the execution that we've seen on the restart. And there's really a couple of different areas. I mentioned the mechanical condition of some of the equipment. We continue to work through that. And then the other one is really around the technical expertise of the people that we have there. It has taken some time to make sure that the folks that we have there are able to effectively work through the restart. We've doubled down on some of the resources that we've provided out of the center of excellence and also some external resources. So at this point, we continue to work through the restart.

我們對重啟時的速度和執行力感到失望。實際上有幾個不同的領域。我提到了一些設備的機械狀況。我們將繼續努力解決這個問題。另一件事情實際上是圍繞我們那裡的人員的技術專長。我們花了一些時間來確保我們的人員能夠有效地完成重啟工作。我們加倍利用了卓越中心提供的一些資源以及一些外部資源。所以此時，我們繼續進行重啟工作。

The next question is from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

Yes. So I guess maybe sticking on Alumar, but maybe also related to work because it sounds like you're facing some challenges in both and then there are some IRA things you're still trying to work out. Are the $75 million and $70 million for work in Kwinana still the right way to think about it, albeit more later in 2025? Or the challenge you spoke to more likely to take the savings level down.

是的。所以我想也許會堅持使用 Alumar，但也可能與工作有關，因為聽起來你在這兩方面都面臨著一些挑戰，然後還有一些 IRA 的事情你仍在努力解決。 7500 萬美元和 7000 萬美元用於奎納納的工程是否仍然是正確的考慮方式，儘管 2025 年晚些時候會更多？或者你談到的挑戰更有可能降低儲蓄水準。

Bill, we are still working toward those stated targets, and we do believe that they can be achieved by the end of '25. For Warrick, we did have a successful restart there. Now I don't expect to see considerable improvement in the second quarter. They have identified additional actions. Those will need to be implemented before we get to profitability. I think we indicated on the last call, we have about $30 million in IRA opportunity. We're waiting for a decision from the government on if direct materials can be included there. So that was part of Warrick. They had $60 million related to the operations and $30 million between Warrick and Massena on the IRA.

Bill，我們仍在努力實現這些既定目標，我們相信它們可以在 25 年底實現。對於沃里克來說，我們確實在那裡成功重啟了。現在我預計第二季不會有明顯改善。他們已經確定了額外的行動。在我們實現盈利之前，這些都需要實施。我想我們在上次電話會議中表示，我們有大約 3000 萬美元的 IRA 機會。我們正在等待政府決定是否可以將直接材料包含在那裡。這就是沃里克的一部分。他們有 6000 萬美元與營運相關，還有 Warrick 和 Massena 之間的 IRA 資金 3000 萬美元。

On Alumar, we're still committed. Again, as Bill mentioned, we still expect to get through the issues that we're facing. We're knocking down items one by one in a very day-to-day focus there and fortunately, have enough expertise now on hand of trying to make progress there.

在 Alumar 上，我們仍然堅定不移。正如比爾再次提到的，我們仍然希望解決我們面臨的問題。我們正在日常工作中一項一項地解決問題，幸運的是，我們現在擁有足夠的專業知識來嘗試在那裡取得進展。

And on Kwinana, I'll say that we had guided to a $70 million improvement there in the -- we will not see that. It will start to ramp in, say, in the second half of '24, but we should be in good shape for realization of Kwinana, the $70 million in '25.

至於奎納納，我想說的是，我們已經指導了 7000 萬美元的改進——但我們不會看到這一點。比方說，它會在 24 年下半年開始增加，但我們應該處於良好狀態，可以在 25 年實現 Kwinana，即 7000 萬美元。

Okay. If you think about the U.S. market, it's benefited from protection through Section 232. How do you see further protection evolving given the election year and also the headlines out this morning regarding Chinese material? Based on our math, it looks like around maybe 3% to 5% of total U.S. imports over the past few years.

好的。如果您考慮美國市場，您會發現它受益於第 232 條的保護。根據我們的計算，過去幾年它大約占美國進口總額的 3% 到 5%。

So the headlines that came out this morning, if we just back up, the 232, we don't see that necessarily the 232 tariffs changing. And so we think those will stay in place. The headlines that came out this morning around potential increase of tariffs on 301 is, first of all, it's a fairly small subsegment of the aluminum that's used. And second of all, I guess, in our view, it's probably positive for our North American customers. And if it's positive for our North American downstream customers, we're supportive of the increased tariff level. Now it's very recent news, and we haven't seen any the final information. So that's a preliminary view.

因此，今天早上出現的頭條新聞，如果我們只是支持 232，我們並不認為 232 關稅一定會改變。所以我們認為這些將保持不變。今天早上出現的關於 301 關稅可能增加的頭條新聞首先是，它只是所使用的鋁的一個相當小的子部分。其次，我想，在我們看來，這對我們的北美客戶來說可能是正面的。如果這對我們的北美下游客戶有利，我們就會支持提高關稅水準。現在這是最近的消息，我們還沒有看到任何最終訊息。這是初步的看法。

The next question is from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的 Timna Tanners。

As I look across your like remaining operations, there's still some curtailed smelting capacity and refining capacity. And in light of your optimistic outlook and the strength recently in aluminum, do you revisit like further Warrick restarts or Lista, for example? Or do you think about opportunities to maybe capitalize on this higher price in the near term or going forward as well?

當我查看你們的剩餘運作時，仍然有一些冶煉能力和精煉能力被削減。鑑於您的樂觀前景和最近鋁業的強勢，您是否會像進一步重啟沃里克（Warrick）或利斯塔（Lista）那樣重新審視？或者您是否考慮過在短期內或未來利用這一較高價格的機會？

You know that, for instance, in the case of Warrick and Lista, we always look at the economics of a potential restart. In those situations, we would need to have real clarity around near-term energy prices. And so we would consider it. However, in the case of, for instance, work, I want to make sure that we have the 3 lines running well and capture the savings that we've announced and gone out publicly with. And in the case of Lista, it would have to be an energy solution that we would be able to get over the near term.

你知道，例如，就沃里克和利斯塔而言，我們總是關注潛在重啟的經濟性。在這種情況下，我們需要真正明確指出近期能源價格。所以我們會考慮它。然而，例如，在工作方面，我想確保我們的 3 條生產線運作良好，並捕獲我們已宣布並公開支出的節省費用。就 Lista 而言，它必須是我們能夠在短期內獲得的能源解決方案。

Okay. Helpful. And I just want to understand Spain a little bit better. So when you think about selling the assets, but you're on the same breath, you're telling us that you're not very optimistic about them. So would a potential buyer have to have, I guess, you mentioned the other Spanish sale, and so they need to have some deep pockets and maybe a different relationship with the union and government. Like how do you sell an asset that you're telling people is struggling? I just want to understand that better and what your prospects you think there are?

好的。有幫助。我只是想更了解西班牙。因此，當您考慮出售資產但又持相同態度時，您是在告訴我們您對這些資產不太樂觀。因此，我想，潛在買家必須擁有您提到的另一筆西班牙銷售，因此他們需要擁有雄厚的財力，也許還需要與工會和政府建立不同的關係。例如你告訴人們正在苦苦掙扎的資產如何出售？我只是想更好地了解這一點以及您認為的前景如何？

Well, we're running a really broad-based sale process, and we've gone out to just about every strategic and financial buyer in the industry. And it will really be up to them to take a position around how they view some of the things that they can achieve either with the union or through governmental support and metal prices and alumina prices, right? So if somebody has a view that Europe will be short metal for the long term, potentially, they can justify buying the asset. We'll go through that process. At the same time, as I said, we'll be very focused around trying to ensure the viability of the site for ourselves and for a potential future buyer. And if we get to the second half of this year, and we don't have a buyer and we can't assure the viability. As we've said, we're not putting more money into that site and hard decisions will have to be made at that time.

嗯，我們正在運行一個非常廣泛的銷售流程，我們已經接觸了行業中幾乎所有的策略和財務買家。他們確實應該根據自己的立場來看待他們可以透過工會或透過政府支持以及金屬價格和氧化鋁價格實現的一些目標，對嗎？因此，如果有人認為歐洲將長期看空金屬，那麼他們就有理由購買該資產。我們將完成這個過程。同時，正如我所說，我們將非常專注於確保網站對我們自己和未來潛在買家的可行性。如果到了今年下半年，我們還沒有買家，我們就無法保證可行性。正如我們所說，我們不會向該網站投入更多資金，屆時必須做出艱難的決定。

Okay. And just to clarify, the view of running out of cash in the second half does include the recent run rate of aluminum and alumina prices.

好的。需要澄清的是，下半年現金耗盡的觀點確實包括近期鋁和氧化鋁價格的運作。

So at -- I think we've said recently that we have about $200 million of internal lines of credit or cash, of which some of that is restricted cash associated with capital expenditures. And that largely includes the most recent view. Metal prices run up a little bit over the last few days. Maybe that pushes it out a month or 2. But that's the view, Timna, that it will be second half sometime.

所以，我想我們最近說過，我們有大約 2 億美元的內部信貸或現金額度，其中一些是與資本支出相關的限制性現金。這主要包括最新的觀點。過去幾天金屬價格小幅上漲。也許這會將它推遲一兩個月。

The next question is from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

On Alumar, just how potentially could the issue that you're facing now impact the $75 million incremental EBITDA that you expect to get from that operation by the end of 2025?

在 Alumar 上，您現在面臨的問題對您預計到 2025 年底從該營運中獲得的 7,500 萬美元增量 EBITDA 有何影響？

So Carlos, when we set that guidance for the $75 million improvement, we were really looking at the losses that we had accumulated in 2023 and setting a goal for ourselves to at least be back to a neutral to breakeven. So we're still on that path to get into 2025, hopefully turning the quarter into positive profitability. But that's why we are focused on the $75 million as being achievable.

因此，卡洛斯，當我們為 7500 萬美元的改善設定指導時，我們確實在考慮 2023 年積累的損失，並為自己設定了一個目標，至少要恢復到中性以實現盈虧平衡。因此，進入 2025 年，我們仍將沿著這條道路前進，希望該季度能夠實現正盈利。但這就是為什麼我們關注 7500 萬美元是可以實現的。

All right. And then on the breakthrough technologies, which some of them are really exciting. What is going on that maybe it feels, at least to me, that it is delaying a little bit the implementation of the peso, which those are advancing. Any color that you can provide there on the ELYSIS or the Refinery of the Future, perhaps?

好的。然後是突破性技術，其中一些技術確實令人興奮。發生了什麼事，也許至少對我來說，它正在推遲比索的實施，而這些正在推進。也許您可以在 ELYSIS 或未來煉油廠上提供任何顏色？

Yes. So ELYSIS, we continue to make progress on ELYSIS. We will have a commercial size test cell running in 2024 at the Rio Tinto's Alma smelter. That's a 450 kA cell. So from that cell, we'll be able to get good reading on how well it operates and be able to get a good feel for how well it operates today on the commercial side. So our view is that we won't be implementing anything until post 2030. That gives time for the technology to be completely developed and vetted out, so that when we get to a point of large capital expenditures for ELYSIS potlines, we'll have a good sense that the technology is completely solid.

是的。所以 ELYSIS，我們繼續在 ELYSIS 上取得進展。我們將於 2024 年在力拓的阿爾瑪冶煉廠運行一個商業規模的測試單元。這是一個 450 kA 的電池。因此，從該單元中，我們將能夠很好地了解它的運作情況，並能夠很好地了解它今天在商業方面的運作情況。因此，我們的觀點是，直到 2030 年之後我們才會實施任何措施。

And from what you see today, Bill, would you implement ELYSIS potlines in carbon smelter? Or do you think it should be more in a greenfield?

從今天看到的情況來看，Bill，您會在碳冶煉廠中實施 ELYSIS 電解槽嗎？還是你認為它應該更多地在綠地上？

It's really early, Carlos. And what -- some of the restrictions that we will be placing on it is that it only makes sense for us to implement ELYSIS where we have green, sustainable power, renewable power that's inexpensive. So we'll be looking around the world both for brownfields and greenfields in the 2030 time frame to implement ELYSIS, but it will have to be on renewable, low-cost sustainable power.

現在還真早，卡洛斯。我們將對其施加的一些限制是，只有在我們擁有綠色、可持續電力、廉價的可再生電力的情況下，實施 ELYSIS 才有意義。因此，我們將在 2030 年的時間範圍內在世界各地尋找棕地和綠地來實施 ELYSIS，但必須使用可再生、低成本的可持續電力。

The next question is from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Katja Jancic。

First, Bill, can you provide an update on the permitting process for the new bauxite mine areas in Western Australia?

首先，比爾，您能否提供有關西澳大利亞新鋁土礦礦區許可流程的最新資訊？

Yes. So we're focused on -- continue to be focused on EPA assessment process. We're moving forward on the Part IV process for Myara North and Holyoake. There are a series of steps that are outlined on our website. So it actually makes it much easier for you to follow along and see how you can hold us accountable for moving forward. We will have -- we expect an EPA public comment period on the environmental review document. That could be as early as the second quarter of 2024. Maybe that goes into the third quarter.

是的。因此，我們將繼續關注 EPA 評估流程。我們正在推進 Myara North 和 Holyoake 的第四部分流程。我們的網站上概述了一系列步驟。因此，它實際上讓您更容易跟隨並了解如何讓我們對前進負責。我們預計美國環保署將對環境審查文件進行公眾評議期。最早可能會在 2024 年第二季進行。

We'll prepare responses to the submissions for that in the third quarter of 2024. The EPA will publish a report on their assessment and, we say, in the first quarter of 2025. That's all leading toward a ministerial decision at the end of 2025, the fourth quarter of 2025, so that we can implement the mine move so that we can get there no earlier than 2027. So those are the various steps, and we're continuing to make progress on those steps.

我們將在 2024 年第三季準備對提交的答覆。季度，這樣我們就可以實施礦山搬遷，這樣我們就可以在2027 年之前實現這一目標。

Okay. And then maybe on the 45X credit, do you think alumina and other input costs are eventually going to be included in the calculation? And if so, what would the incremental benefit for you potentially be?

好的。然後也許在 45X 信用額上，您認為氧化鋁和其他投入成本最終會包含在計算中嗎？如果是這樣，您可能獲得的增量收益是什麼？

So Katja, if alumina and all of our raw materials are included, we should see about a $30 million to $40 million benefit from the direct material inclusion. We have made our case to the government and now we are awaiting a word.

因此，Katja，如果將氧化鋁和我們所有的原材料都包括在內，我們應該會看到直接材料包含帶來的約 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元的收益。我們已經向政府提出了申訴，現在正在等待政府的答覆。

Is there any time line on when the decision could be made?

有沒有什麼時間可以做決定？

Unfortunately, no.

很不幸的是，不行。

The next question is from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research.

下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的 Michael Dudas。

So I guess encouraging news on the sanctions out of the U.K. and the U.S. And with the Russian aluminum situation, any read or thought about the EU there following through? And maybe on the dynamics of the marketplace. I mean certainly basin prices have improved and certainly a loans benefit. But can you get a sense of, I guess, the customer base really kicking in here on the demand side? And is some of the dynamics on the maybe speculative or some of the dynamics with regard to some of the metals flow could be more or less supportive in this recent run, Bill?

因此，我認為有關英國和美國制裁的令人鼓舞的消息以及俄羅斯鋁業的情況，有任何關於歐盟後續行動的讀物或想法嗎？也許還取決於市場的動態。我的意思是流域價格肯定有所改善，貸款也肯定會受益。但我想，你能感覺到客戶群真正在需求上發揮作用嗎？比爾，在最近的這一輪走勢中，一些可能是投機的動態或一些與某些金屬流動有關的動態可能或多或少具有支持性？

So a lot of components to that question, Mike. So let me try to parse it out a little bit. But if we start with the Russian sanctions, the first and foremost, we're appreciative of the action that was taken by the U.S. and the U.K. governments. We've been supporting this type of action for and really advocating for this type of action for a couple of years now. Prior to the announcement on Friday, and just to be clear, the index price, and this has been our argument for 2 years, the index price for all metal sales had been set by Russian units, which we believe were discounted in the marketplace. And so you had a global pricing mechanism that had lost its credibility because it was based on a product that wasn't widely accepted in the market. So this move reestablishes the credibility of the benchmark price.

麥克，這個問題有很多組成部分。那麼讓我試著稍微解析一下它。但如果我們從對俄羅斯的製裁開始，首先也是最重要的，我們對美國和英國政府採取的行動表示讚賞。幾年來，我們一直支持這種類型的行動，並真正倡導這種類型的行動。在周五宣布之前，需要明確的是，指數價格，這是我們兩年來的論點，所有金屬銷售的指數價格都是由俄羅斯單位設定的，我們認為該價格在市場上有折扣。因此，你的全球定價機制已經失去了可信度，因為它是基於一個未被市場廣泛接受的產品。因此，此舉重新確立了基準價格的可信度。

To go to the second part of the question, we think it paves the way for the EU to take similar action, and we would obviously advocate for similar action.

回到問題的第二部分，我們認為這為歐盟採取類似行動鋪平了道路，我們顯然會主張採取類似行動。

And then the third part of the question is, I would not attribute all of the price moves recently to this Russian sanctions move. We are seeing strong demand across the board. As I said in my prepared remarks, in just about every industry and every region that we serve, with the exception of European building construction, but if it's packaging, automotive, transportation, electrical transmission, we're seeing growth in each of those markets. And again, if it's China, Europe or North America, we see it in all markets. So the price movement that we've seen on the LME can be attributed in part to the Russia sanctions, in part to some of the strength in demand, price movement that we've seen in the premiums, we think, is related to stronger demand, too. So you've seen the Midwest premium move up, the European premiums move up, and the Japanese premium move up also. So we're really feeling as if we're in a spot where the -- we're getting some tailwinds from the marketplace.

問題的第三部分是，我不會將最近所有的價格變動歸因於俄羅斯的製裁措施。我們看到全面的強勁需求。正如我在準備好的演講中所說，在我們服務的幾乎每個行業和每個地區，除了歐洲建築施工，但如果是包裝、汽車、運輸、電力傳輸，我們都看到每個市場的成長。再說一次，如果是中國、歐洲或北美，我們都會在所有市場上看到它。因此，我們在倫敦金屬交易所看到的價格變動部分歸因於俄羅斯制裁，部分歸因於需求的強勁，我們認為，我們在溢價中看到的價格變動與走強有關。因此，您已經看到中西部保費上漲，歐洲保費上漲，日本保費也上漲。因此，我們真的感覺好像我們正從市場中獲得一些順風車。

The next question is from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Very Independent Research.

下一個問題來自 John Tumazos 和 John Tumazos Very Independent Research。

Will Alcoa apply for a $0.5 billion grant like Century did? And do you have site infrastructure? It's some of your existing or prior facilities that would make it cheaper for you to build a large smelter and a brownfield or existing site rather than starting fresh?

美國鋁業公司會像世紀公司一樣申請 5 億美元的撥款嗎？你們有網站基礎建設嗎？您現有或之前的一些設施將使您建造大型冶煉廠和棕地或現有場地比重新開始更便宜？

John, we have existing sites around the U.S., for instance, Massena East, which is the old Reynolds facility, Massena West, Point Comfort, Intalco, Wenatchee. Off the top of my head, I don't know that any of those would have large enough electrical infrastructure to make a meaningful difference in putting a new site, a new plant there. So on the margin, it may. I think those sites are much better suited for redevelopment, and that's why we have our transformation group, and you have seen some of the real successes over the last couple of years, dating back to when we sold Rockdale for $250 million, and we sold Eastalco for $100 million. We get real value out of some of these sites through a redevelopment program and then sell them, and we'll continue to do that.

約翰，我們在美國各地都有現有工廠，例如馬塞納東（雷諾茲舊工廠）、馬塞納西、Point Comfort、Intalco、韋納奇。在我的腦海中，我不知道其中任何一個都會擁有足夠大的電力基礎設施來對在那裡建立新地點、新工廠產生有意義的影響。所以從邊際來看，可能是這樣。我認為這些地點更適合重建，這就是為什麼我們有我們的轉型小組，你已經看到了過去幾年的一些真正的成功，可以追溯到我們以 2.5 億美元出售 Rockdale 時，我們出售了Eastalco斥資1億美元。我們透過重建計劃從其中一些網站中獲得真正的價值，然後將其出售，我們將繼續這樣做。

To answer your first question, we would need -- very similar to the comment that I made to Carlos, we would need renewable energy at a low cost to make a large investment in the U.S. And in order for us to make that large investment, we would be going to the government also. It's not in the works right now, John. That's not on our agenda. We've not talked about that. And it's just not on my agenda over the near term to have that done.

為了回答你的第一個問題，我們需要—與我對卡洛斯的評論非常相似，我們需要低成本的再生能源來在美國進行大量投資。現在還沒開始，約翰。這不在我們的議程上。我們還沒有討論過這個。而且這並不在我近期的議程上。

So if I can ask another, why do you think the government shows the April 13 cutoff dates for bidding the Russian metals as opposed to for bidding the preexisting metal wherever it might be laying around? A lot of the aluminum is stuck in Korea, anyway, in warehouses.

那麼，如果我可以問另一個問題，您認為政府為什麼會顯示 4 月 13 日為俄羅斯金屬投標的截止日期，而不是對現有金屬（無論其位於何處）的投標？無論如何，許多鋁都滯留在韓國的倉庫裡。

I don't have a good answer for you. I can't speculate why the government chose the date they chose. I'm just pleased that they took the action that they did and really think that it is the first step towards reestablishing the credibility of the aluminum contract on the LME, and I'm glad they did it. And whether they have chosen the 12th or the 14th, I'm just glad they did it.

我沒有一個好的答案給你。我無法推測政府為什麼選擇這個日期。我很高興他們採取了他們所做的行動，並且確實認為這是重建倫敦金屬交易所鋁合約可信度的第一步，我很高興他們這樣做了。無論他們選擇了 12 號還是 14 號，我很高興他們這麼做了。

Your next question is a follow-up from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley.

您的下一個問題是 Lucas Pipes 和 B. Riley 的後續問題。

Bill, on the copper side, there's a lot of excitement about AI, electrification of everything and obviously, aluminum benefits as a substitute in many of those ways. But aluminum also competes for electricity. So when you kind of think about the demand side, but then also kind of additional costs in the supply side when you net it out, what do you think does it mean for the aluminum industry longer term? And how would you position Alcoa for that trend?

比爾，在銅方面，人工智慧、一切電氣化都令人興奮，顯然，鋁作為替代品在許多方面都有好處。但鋁也會爭奪電力。因此，當您考慮需求方面，同時考慮供應方面的額外成本時，您認為這對鋁產業的長期意味著什麼？您將如何為美鋁公司定位這一趨勢？

So Lucas, thanks for the question. I fundamentally believe that aluminum is an integral part of the energy transition that will occur in the world over the next 25 years. Copper is critically important, but aluminum is right there also. There's a historical reference point of like 3,500 -- I'm sorry, 3.5x difference between copper price and aluminum price that when copper goes up, there's a substitution effect between copper and aluminum. We see that holding true today. And as copper becomes more expensive, we think that, that will benefit aluminum.

盧卡斯，謝謝你的提問。我從根本上相信，鋁是未來 25 年世界能源轉型不可或缺的一部分。銅至關重要，但鋁也同樣重要。有一個類似3500的歷史參考點——對不起，銅價和鋁價之間有3.5倍的差異，當銅價上漲時，銅和鋁之間存在替代效應。我們今天看到這一點仍然成立。我們認為，隨著銅變得更加昂貴，這將使鋁受益。

However, aluminum monotone, and you know this story, critically important to electrification, critically important to electric vehicles. You look at how much is used in applications around solar applications for the panels, the frames of the panels, the wind turbines, it's a significant driver of aluminum. And we're looking at, I think CRU says 80% increase in aluminum demand between now and 2050. So I think the future is really bright for aluminum and copper, but aluminum especially.

然而，鋁單調，你知道這個故事，對電氣化至關重要，對電動車至關重要。你看看太陽能應用的電池板、電池板框架、風力渦輪機的使用量，它是鋁的重要動力。我們正在研究，我認為 CRU 表示從現在到 2050 年鋁需求將增加 80%。

And on the power side, what do you think it means for how you're positioned?

在權力方面，您認為這對您的定位意味著什麼？

Well, I think on the power side, renewable green power is getting harder and harder, and it doesn't -- to find globally. And so it doesn't matter if it's being used for something else associated with the transition of energy, but it is getting harder and harder to find, which ultimately means that supply, to some extent, will be limited, right? The supply growth over time will really be based on green energy. And if green energy sources are being used for other things like data centers, I think it limits supply. So again, you can tell I'm pretty bullish on aluminum, and I think both of those factors play into a stronger aluminum market in the future.

嗯，我認為在電力方面，可再生綠色電力變得越來越難，但事實並非如此——在全球範圍內尋找。因此，它是否被用於與能源轉型相關的其他用途並不重要，但它越來越難找到，這最終意味著供應在某種程度上將受到限制，對嗎？隨著時間的推移，供應成長將真正基於綠色能源。如果綠色能源被用於資料中心等其他用途，我認為這會限制供應。再說一次，你可以看出我非常看好鋁，我認為這兩個因素都會在未來推動鋁市場走強。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Oplinger for his closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回奧普林格先生作閉幕詞。

Thanks, Gary. And as we just said to Lucas, as you can hear from our voice, Molly and I are really excited about the future of the company. We think we made substantial progress in the quarter, with the Alumina Limited deal being announced and the other operational actions that we took. The markets are, in our view, a tailwind and the markets are improving. We didn't really talk that much about the fact that our back book is improving also. So while metal prices and alumina prices and premiums are going up, we're seeing that VAP sales, value-added product sales, go up also. And so with all that, we'll sign off. We're looking forward to talking to you in July. Thank you.

謝謝，加里。正如我們剛剛對盧卡斯所說的那樣，正如你從我們的聲音中可以聽到的那樣，莫莉和我對公司的未來感到非常興奮。我們認為，隨著 Alumina Limited 交易的宣布以及我們採取的其他營運行動，我們在本季度取得了實質進展。我們認為，市場是順風車，市場正在改善。我們並沒有真正談論我們的背書也在改進這一事實。因此，雖然金屬價格、氧化鋁價格和溢價上漲，但我們看到 VAP 銷售、加值產品銷售也在上漲。就這樣，我們就結束了。我們期待在七月與您交談。謝謝。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。