美國鋁公司 (AA) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Presentation and Conference Call.

下午好，歡迎來到美鋁公司 2023 年第三季財報和電話會議。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to James Dwyer, Vice President, Investor Relations and Pension Investments. Please go ahead.

請注意，此事件正在被記錄。現在我想將會議交給投資者關係和退休金投資副總裁 James Dwyer。請繼續。

Thank you, and good day, everyone. I'm joined today by William Oplinger, Alcoa Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer; and Molly Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Bill and Molly.

謝謝大家，祝大家有美好的一天。今天，美國鋁業公司總裁兼執行長威廉·奧普林格 (William Oplinger) 也加入了我的行列。執行副總裁兼財務長莫莉‧比爾曼 (Molly Beerman)。我們將在比爾和莫莉發表評論後回答您的問題。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements, are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings. In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. For historical non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation. We have not presented quantitative reconciliations of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures for reasons noted on this slide. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA. Finally, as previously announced, the earnings press release and slide presentation are available on our website. With that, here's Bill.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與未來事件和預期相關的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到各種假設和警告的影響。可能導致公司實際結果與這些聲明有重大差異的因素已包含在今天的簡報和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。此外，我們也在本簡報中納入了一些非公認會計準則財務指標。對於歷史非 GAAP 財務指標，可以在今天簡報的附錄中找到與最直接可比較的 GAAP 財務指標的調整表。由於本投影片中所述的原因，我們尚未提供某些前瞻性非公認會計原則財務指標的定量調節表。我們今天討論中提及的 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA。最後，如同先前所宣布的，收益新聞稿和幻燈片簡報可在我們的網站上取得。說到這裡，比爾來了。

Thank you, Jim, and thanks to everyone for joining the call today. Before we get started, I want to acknowledge the important contributions from our former CEO, Roy Harvey. Roy played a key role in our evolution into a stronger and more resilient business, and he was pivotal in our 2016 launch as a pure-play upstream aluminum company. He led the company through some difficult market environments, including COVID and his commitment to making Alcoa successful, never wavered. He is serving as a strategic adviser to me for the remainder of the year, and I appreciate his counsel.

謝謝吉姆，也謝謝大家今天加入電話會議。在開始之前，我要感謝我們的前任執行長 Roy Harvey 做出的重要貢獻。 Roy 在我們發展成為更強大、更有彈性的業務的過程中發揮了關鍵作用，他在我們 2016 年成為一家純粹的上游鋁公司的過程中發揮了關鍵作用。他帶領公司度過了一些困難的市場環境，包括新冠疫情，他對讓美鋁成功的承諾從未動搖。在今年剩下的時間裡，他將擔任我的策略顧問，我很感謝他的建議。

I've interacted with many of you over my 23-year (inaudible) and Alcoa Corp, both in my CFO and COO roles, and I'm glad to be with you again today. In my first few weeks in this role, I've met with employees, customers and industry participants. Several questions keep coming up in those conversations, such as what are our priorities and what are Alcoa's key challenges. First, to address the constant in our company, our values. At Alcoa, we act with integrity, operate with excellence, care for people and lead with courage. These aren't statements that simply live on (inaudible). These are the values we expect every Alcoan to live daily. I'm proud to lead the company guided by strong values. Our relentless focus on the safety of our employees, contractors and visitors to our sites will continue as well our efforts toward our sustainability targets.

在我的 23 年（聽不清楚）和美國鋁業公司（Alcoa Corp）擔任財務長和營運長期間，我與你們中的許多人進行過互動，我很高興今天再次與你們在一起。在擔任此職務的頭幾週內，我會見了員工、客戶和行業參與者。這些對話中不斷出現幾個問題，例如我們的優先事項是什麼以及美鋁面臨的主要挑戰是什麼。首先，要解決我們公司不變的價值觀。在美鋁，我們誠信行事，卓越運營，關懷員工，勇於領導。這些並不是簡單存在的陳述（聽不清楚）。這些是我們期望每個美鋁人每天都實踐的價值觀。我很自豪能夠以堅定的價值觀為指導來領導公司。我們將持續關注員工、承包商和現場訪客的安全，並繼續努力實現永續發展目標。

As I step into the CEO role, I want to make it clear that I have ambition for this company. An ambition manifests as an expectation of excellence in everything we do, from EHS, operations, maintenance and commercial excellence. Alcoa has an impressive history of innovation and leadership in the industry, and we plan to further build on that and strengthen our market connections. We will be action-oriented and make decisions guided by our values, sound business principles and with a focus on creating value for our stockholders. We've made good progress this year. Across our system, we've improved stability and we intend to build on that operational momentum.

當我擔任執行長時，我想明確表示我對這家公司抱持雄心。雄心體現在我們所做的每一件事上都追求卓越，從 EHS、營運、維護到商業卓越。美鋁在行業創新和領導地位方面擁有令人印象深刻的歷史，我們計劃在此基礎上進一步發展並加強我們的市場聯繫。我們將以行動為導向，以我們的價值觀、健全的商業原則為指導做出決策，並專注於為股東創造價值。今年我們取得了良好的進展。在我們的整個系統中，我們提高了穩定性，並打算在此基礎上再接再厲。

So for the near term, the focus will be gaining approvals for bauxite mining in Western Australia. This is our top priority. We are making progress. We have the right team in place for success, and we understand the improvements that our stakeholders are expecting. We will be driving for further operational improvements in Brazil. The ongoing start-up at the Alumar smelter in Sao Luis, hasn't gone as planned. We now have conditions in place for a successful restart from here forward.

因此，短期內的重點將是獲得西澳大利亞鋁土礦開採的批准。這是我們的首要任務。我們正在取得進展。我們擁有成功所需的合適團隊，並且我們了解利害關係人所期望的改進。我們將推動巴西的進一步營運改善。聖路易斯 Alumar 冶煉廠正在進行的啟動工作並未按計劃進行。我們現在已經具備了從現在開始成功重啟的條件。

Next, we will be focusing on productivity across our system with every site focused on margin improvements through operational productivity going into 2024. And we have action plans in place to improve the financial results of certain locations in the system that have been underperforming. Each operation is working to become more globally competitive. In the long term, we remain bullish on aluminum as the material of choice. Mega trends continue to drive increased aluminum usage globally from further EV penetration to the substantial future demand in solar installations. Alcoa is uniquely positioned in the aluminum industry for a world focused on carbon emissions and other sustainability issues, which we are addressing from 3 vectors: primary metal production with our joint venture, ELYSIS, post-consumer scrap usage with our Australia technology and carbon and residue emissions with our Refinery of the Future Initiative.

接下來，我們將重點放在整個系統的生產力，到2024 年，每個站點都將重點放在透過營運生產力提高利潤率。我們還制定了行動計劃，以改善系統中某些表現不佳的站點的財務業績。每個業務部門都在努力提高全球競爭力。從長遠來看，我們仍然看好鋁作為首選材料。從電動車的進一步普及到太陽能裝置未來的巨大需求，大趨勢持續推動全球鋁使用量的增加。在關注碳排放和其他永續發展問題的世界中，美鋁公司在鋁業中處於獨特的地位，我們從三個方面解決這些問題：與我們的合資企業ELYSIS 進行初級金屬生產，利用我們的澳大利亞技術和碳和鋁進行消費後廢料的利用。我們的未來煉油廠計劃的殘留物排放。

So before I address the third quarter results, let me reemphasize, we are laser-focused on improving the short term, and we are working on developing unmatched industry-leading technology for the long term. Let's begin with safety. I'm disappointed that we had one serious injury with life-altering implications in the third quarter. A worker at our Juruti bauxite mine lost portions of 2 fingers while performing maintenance on a bulldozer. While this event is unacceptable, overall, we are making progress on preventing fatalities and serious injuries. So far this year, our total recordable injury rate has improved by 16% and days away and restricted time injury, or DART rate is 27% better on a year-over-year basis. Also, we are increasing the number of on-site field verifications for leaders to evaluate the effectiveness of critical safety controls and coach workers on safety improvements.

因此，在談論第三季業績之前，讓我再次強調，我們專注於改善短期業績，並致力於長期開發無與倫比的行業領先技術。讓我們從安全開始。我很失望，我們在第三節遭遇了一次嚴重的傷病，並改變了我們的生活。我們 Juruti 鋁土礦的一名工人在維護推土機時失去了 2 根手指。雖然這一事件是不可接受的，但總的來說，我們在防止死亡和重傷方面正在取得進展。今年到目前為止，我們的總可記錄工傷率年減了 16%，缺勤和限制時間工傷率或 DART 率年減了 27%。此外，我們還增加了領導者現場驗證的數量，以評估關鍵安全控制的有效性並指導工人進行安全改進。

Now moving to the financials. We reported an adjusted net loss for the third quarter of $1.14 per share and $70 million in adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, driven by lower average realized prices for both alumina and aluminum. Improvements in both raw material and production costs did not fully offset the impact from lower realized pricing in both of our segments. We ended the quarter with a strong balance sheet and a cash balance of $926 million. We've made meaningful progress on our approvals for bauxite mining in Australia during the quarter and have more visibility on the time line for decisions from the government and regulators. I'll address this more fully later.

現在轉向財務。我們公佈第三季調整後淨虧損為每股 1.14 美元，調整後 EBITDA 為 7,000 萬美元（不包括特殊項目），這是由於氧化鋁和鋁的平均實現價格下降所致。原材料和生產成本的改善並沒有完全抵消我們兩個部門實現定價較低的影響。本季結束時，我們的資產負債表強勁，現金餘額為 9.26 億美元。本季度，我們在澳洲鋁土礦開採審批方面取得了有意義的進展，並且對政府和監管機構決策的時間表有了更多的了解。稍後我將更全面地解決這個問題。

In our operations, our Quebec smelter system set production records in the quarter, and we're investing there to increase our casting capabilities for value-add products. From a commercial perspective, we also continue to be encouraged by the reception from customers for our Sustana line of low-carbon products, which includes EcoLum metal and EcoSource alumina. And while demand in some key end markets remain soft, there are signals for a rebound in 2024. We'll talk more about that macroeconomic view of the market in a moment, but first, let me turn it over now to our CFO. Molly, please go ahead.

在我們的營運中，我們的魁北克冶煉廠系統在本季度創下了生產記錄，我們正在那裡進行投資，以提高我們增值產品的鑄造能力。從商業角度來看，我們的 Sustana 系列低碳產品（包括 EcoLum 金屬和 EcoSource 氧化鋁）受到客戶的歡迎，這也繼續令我們感到鼓舞。儘管一些關鍵終端市場的需求仍然疲軟，但有跡象表明 2024 年將出現反彈。我們稍後將更多地討論市場的宏觀經濟觀點，但首先，讓我將其轉交給我們的財務長。莫莉，請繼續。

Thank you, Bill. Revenue was down 3% to $2.6 billion as higher shipments only partially offset lower realized prices for both alumina and aluminum. The net loss attributable to Alcoa increased $66 million to $168 million, and the loss per share increased from $0.57 to $0.94. On an adjusted basis, the net loss attributable to Alcoa increased $140 million to $202 million. The difference in that loss is primarily related to a reversal of valuation allowance on deferred tax assets in Iceland.

謝謝你，比爾。由於出貨量增加僅部分抵消了氧化鋁和鋁的實際價格下降，收入下降了 3% 至 26 億美元。美國鋁業的淨虧損增加了 6,600 萬美元，達到 1.68 億美元，每股虧損從 0.57 美元增加到 0.94 美元。調整後，美國鋁業公司的淨虧損增加了 1.4 億美元，達到 2.02 億美元。此損失的差異主要與冰島遞延稅務資產估價備抵的轉回有關。

Adjusted EBITDA declined $67 million to $70 million as part of the decrease in revenue was offset by lower costs. Let's look at the key drivers of EBITDA. Third quarter 2023 adjusted EBITDA declined $67 million to $70 million as lower metal and alumina realized prices were only partially offset by lower raw materials, energy and production costs. Alumina segment EBITDA increased $20 million sequentially. Lower raw material costs, primarily caustic soda, and lower production costs in Brazil and Spain more than offset lower alumina index prices. We also saw the benefit of lower raw materials and production costs in the aluminum segment as well as energy improvements but not enough to overcome the impact of lower metal prices.

調整後 EBITDA 下降 6,700 萬美元至 7,000 萬美元，部分營收減少被成本下降所抵銷。讓我們看看 EBITDA 的主要驅動因素。 2023 年第三季調整後 EBITDA 下降 6,700 萬美元至 7,000 萬美元，因為金屬和氧化鋁實現價格下降僅被原材料、能源和生產成本下降部分抵消。氧化鋁業務 EBITDA 環比成長 2000 萬美元。原料成本（主要是燒鹼）的下降以及巴西和西班牙生產成本的下降足以抵消氧化鋁指數價格的下降。我們也看到了鋁業原料和生產成本降低以及能源改善的好處，但不足以克服金屬價格下跌的影響。

Other costs outside the segments were unfavorable, $56 million. They reflect unfavorable intersegment elimination, higher transformation demolition costs and higher other corporate costs. Here's a deeper dive on raw material costs. This year, we've seen substantial improvement in our segment EBITDA due to lower prices for our key raw materials. Market prices for caustic soda, calcined petroleum coke and coal tar pitch continued to decline in the quarter and are expected to improve further. Company-wide, we have seen an $86 million EBITDA improvement over the first 9 months, $32 million in the Alumina segment and $55 million in the Aluminum segment. These lower raw materials market prices work through our financials on a lag basis, so we expect further improvement in the fourth quarter.

該部門以外的其他成本也很不利，為 5,600 萬美元。它們反映了不利的部門間淘汰、較高的改造拆除成本和較高的其他企業成本。以下是對原材料成本的更深入探討。今年，由於主要原料價格下降，我們的部門 EBITDA 大幅改善。本季燒鹼、煅燒石油焦和煤焦油瀝青市場價格持續下跌，預計將進一步改善。在全公司範圍內，我們看到前 9 個月的 EBITDA 改善了 8,600 萬美元，其中氧化鋁部門改善了 3,200 萬美元，鋁部門改善了 5,500 萬美元。較低的原材料市場價格對我們的財務狀況產生滯後影響，因此我們預計第四季度將進一步改善。

Let's now move to other key financial metrics. Our key financial metrics are consistent with our earnings results. Year-to-date return on equity is negative 8.7%. Our third quarter dividend added $18 million to stockholder capital returns, which totaled $54 million year-to-date. Free cash flow less net NCI contribution was negative $36 million in the quarter, increasing proportional adjusted net debt by $0.1 billion and decreasing the cash balance by a similar amount. Year-to-date, capital expenditures and cash income taxes remained our largest use of cash. In the third quarter, days working capital improved 5 days to 50 days on lower inventories.

現在讓我們轉向其他關鍵財務指標。我們的主要財務指標與我們的獲利結果一致。年初至今股本回報率為負8.7%。我們第三季的股利為股東資本回報增加了 1,800 萬美元，今年迄今總計 5,400 萬美元。本季自由現金流減去 NCI 淨貢獻為負 3,600 萬美元，調整後淨債務比例增加 1 億美元，現金餘額減少類似金額。年初至今，資本支出和現金所得稅仍然是我們最大的現金用途。第三季度，由於庫存減少，營運資金天數增加了 5 天，達到 50 天。

The improved working capital performance provided a significant source of cash in the third quarter, entirely offsetting the previous year-to-date working capital cash use. The working capital improvement is evident on the next slide. Cash balance declined $64 million in the quarter. The largest source of cash was a working capital reduction of $183 million, primarily from lower inventories, followed by EBITDA of $70 million and net noncontrolling interest contributions of $40 million. We expect working capital to be a source of cash in the fourth quarter.

營運資金績效的改善為第三季提供了重要的現金來源，完全抵銷了去年迄今的營運資金現金使用。下一張投影片中可以明顯看出營運資金的改善。本季現金餘額減少 6,400 萬美元。最大的現金來源是營運資本減少 1.83 億美元，主要來自庫存減少，其次是 EBITDA 7,000 萬美元和淨非控股利息貢獻 4,000 萬美元。我們預計營運資金將成為第四季的現金來源。

Capital expenditures were the largest use of cash at $145 million as CapEx typically increases as we move through the year. Notable this quarter were settlement payments of $75 million to former workers at 2 smelters that Alcoa previously owned in Spain as well as environmental and ARO spending of $52 million. Let's turn to the outlook for the final quarter of 2023. Our full year outlook has one favorable adjustment. We expect other corporate expense to improve $10 million to $120 million.

資本支出是現金的最大用途，為 1.45 億美元，因為資本支出通常會隨著一年的推移而增加。本季值得注意的是，向美國鋁業公司先前在西班牙擁有的兩家冶煉廠的前工人支付了 7,500 萬美元的和解金，以及 5,200 萬美元的環境和 ARO 支出。讓我們轉向 2023 年最後一個季度的展望。我們的全年展望有一個有利的調整。我們預計其他公司支出將減少 1,000 萬美元至 1.2 億美元。

At the segment level, in alumina, we expect an improvement of approximately $50 million due to lower raw material prices, better production costs and higher volumes, partially offset by approximately $10 million in higher energy costs. In addition, we expect impacts related to lower bauxite grades in Australia to be consistent with the prior 2 quarters. In the Aluminum segment, we expect unfavorable energy impacts of approximately $30 million, mainly due to CO2 compensation changes in Norway. Additionally, we expect $35 million in raw material price improvements to be offset by unfavorable product mix and higher production costs.

在氧化鋁細分市場層面，由於原材料價格下降、生產成本改善和產量增加，我們預計氧化鋁產量將增加約 5,000 萬美元，但能源成本上漲約 1,000 萬美元將部分抵銷。此外，我們預期澳洲鋁土礦品位較低的相關影響將與前兩季一致。在鋁業，我們預計不利的能源影響約為 3000 萬美元，主要是由於挪威二氧化碳補償的變化。此外，我們預計 3,500 萬美元的原物料價格上漲將被不利的產品結構和更高的生產成本所抵銷。

Finally, alumina cost in the Aluminum segment are expected to be favorable by $5 million. Below EBITDA, note that the third quarter other expenses included one-time negative impacts of $35 million, primarily foreign currency losses, and we expect the fourth quarter operational tax to range between $10 million to $20 million. Now I'll turn it back to Bill.

最後，鋁業的氧化鋁成本預計將有利 500 萬美元。請注意，在 EBITDA 下方，第三季其他費用包括 3,500 萬美元的一次性負面影響，主要是外匯損失，我們預計第四季度營業稅將在 1,000 萬美元至 2,000 萬美元之間。現在我會把它轉回給比爾。

Thank you, Molly. Next, I'd like to recap some key items from our global operations. Each of the 3 smelters in Quebec, Deschambault, Baie Comeau and ABI and Becancour, have set year-to-date production records for tons per day. When totaled together, they performed the best since our 2016 separation. This week, one of those smelters, ABI announced a planned investment to further improve its casting capabilities for a broader array of alloys for value-add products. The new equipment should enable us to deliver products with additional sizes, smoother surfaces and better dimensional control for the automotive and packaging markets.

謝謝你，莫莉。接下來，我想回顧一下我們全球營運的一些關鍵事項。魁北克省的 3 家冶煉廠（Deschambault、Baie Comeau、ABI 和 Becancour）均創下了今年迄今的日產量紀錄。合計起來，他們的表現是我們 2016 年分居以來最好的。本週，其中一家冶煉廠 ABI 宣布了一項計劃投資，以進一步提高其鑄造能力，生產更廣泛的合金，用於增值產品。新設備將使我們能夠為汽車和包裝市場提供尺寸更大、表面更光滑和尺寸控制更好的產品。

We are also focused on operational improvements from assets across our global system driven by productivity enhancements. We took our first action last month at our Kwinana refinery in Western Australia with a restructuring plan that is intended to improve that facility and save $10 million annually with more improvements under consideration. In Brazil, we're employing a deliberate and methodical approach to the Alumar smelter restart, which is now operating at approximately 65% of the site's total capacity and has restored stability to the pots that have been restarted.

我們也專注於在生產力提高的推動下，對全球系統中的資產進行營運改善。上個月，我們在西澳大利亞的奎納納煉油廠採取了第一個行動，制定了一項重組計劃，旨在改進該設施，每年節省 1000 萬美元，並正在考慮進行更多改進。在巴西，我們正在採用深思熟慮且有條不紊的方法來重啟 Alumar 冶煉廠，該冶煉廠目前的營運能力約為該廠總產能的 65%，並且已經恢復了已重啟的電解槽的穩定性。

Finally, we are committed to conformance with the global industry standard on tailings management. Alcoa has voluntarily disclosed information from all of our global tailings and we've worked with the International Council on Mining and Metals, or ICMM, to improve the industry's management of tailings. This has been a significant undertaking and we work diligently, including with third-party reviewers to provide additional information about impoundments with the highest classification ratings before an August deadline set for ICMM members. Now let's turn to an update on our mining approvals in Western Australia.

最後，我們致力於遵守尾礦管理的全球產業標準。美鋁公司已自願披露我們全球所有尾礦的信息，並且我們與國際採礦和金屬理事會 (ICMM) 合作，以改善行業對尾礦的管理。這是一項重大任務，我們努力工作，包括與第三方評審員合作，在 ICMM 成員規定的 8 月份截止日期之前提供有關具有最高分類評級的蓄水池的更多資訊。現在讓我們來看看西澳大利亞州採礦審批的最新情況。

Our teams have continued to work with relevant state government departments to advance our annual approvals for bauxite mining at the Huntly and Willowdale mines. Securing an approval is an absolute priority for our company, and we are working toward a final resolution in the fourth quarter. We have submitted a revised mine management program, or MMP, for the period '23 to 2027. This updated MMP is now being reviewed by regulators. We believe this revised plan meets evolving stakeholder needs as it includes numerous enhancements designed to specifically address expectations of the government. It includes additional controls for the protection of drinking water, including increased distances from reservoirs and addresses biodiversity concerns through a plan to accelerate rehabilitation.

我們的團隊繼續與相關州政府部門合作，推動亨特利和威洛代爾礦鋁土礦開採的年度批准。確保獲得批准是我們公司的絕對優先事項，我們正在努力在第四季度達成最終解決方案。我們已提交了 23 至 2027 年期間修訂後的礦山管理計劃 (MMP)。監管機構目前正在審查更新後的 MMP。我們相信，修訂後的計劃滿足了利益相關者不斷變化的需求，因為它包括許多旨在專門滿足政府期望的增強功能。它包括保護飲用水的額外控制措施，包括增加與水庫的距離，並透過加速恢復計劃解決生物多樣性問題。

Separately, let me briefly discuss the Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority process. In August, the agency completed a public consultation period on whether it should assess all or part of the current and next MMPs. The WA EPA has indicated that it expects to decide on this before the end of the year. We have demonstrated our commitment to transitioning to a more modernized approvals framework for new major mine regions. That's why we proactively began a formal assessment in 2020 from the WA EPA for our 2 new major regions for the Huntly mine, Myara North and Holyoake. But this will take some time. The assessment for Myara North and Holyoake is ongoing, and we do not expect the first bauxite ore from these new regions any earlier than 2027.

另外，讓我簡單討論一下西澳大利亞州環境保護局的流程。 8 月，該機構完成了關於是否應評估當前和下一個 MMP 的全部或部分的公眾諮詢期。西澳環保局表示，預計今年底前做出決定。我們已經表明了對新的主要礦區過渡到更現代化的審批框架的承諾。這就是為什麼我們在 2020 年主動開始接受西澳環保局對 Huntly 礦場的 2 個新主要區域（Myara North 和 Holyoake）的正式評估。但這需要一些時間。對 Myara North 和 Holyoake 的評估正在進行中，我們預計這些新地區的第一批鋁土礦礦石不會早於 2027 年。

We do expect the bauxite grade from these regions to be more consistent with the higher grades we previously experienced at the existing Myara Central. However, until then, we expect similar bauxite quality as compared to recent grades. As Molly described, we are actively working to mitigate the financial impacts of these lower grades while also looking for opportunity to optimize productivity.

我們確實預期這些地區的鋁土礦品位將與我們先前在現有邁拉中心所經歷的較高品位更加一致。然而，在那之前，我們預期鋁土礦的品質與最近的品位相似。正如莫莉所描述的，我們正在積極努力減輕這些較低等級的財務影響，同時也尋找優化生產力的機會。

Next, let's move to some highlights from a commercial perspective and discuss some demand trends. First, customers are increasing demand for our Sustana line of products. The Sustana line is a small but growing proportion of our overall sales volume. Sales of EcoLum, our low-carbon aluminum, are strong in Europe and orders are being placed in North America, too. Overall, we expect our annual global sales volume for EcoLum to increase approximately 60% for 2023 when compared to last year.

接下來我們從商業角度來看一些亮點，討論一些需求趨勢。首先，客戶對我們 Sustana 系列產品的需求不斷增加。 Sustana 系列在我們總銷量中所佔比例雖小，但仍在不斷增長。我們的低碳鋁 EcoLum 在歐洲的銷售強勁，北美也有訂單。總體而言，我們預計 2023 年 EcoLum 的全球年銷量將比去年增長約 60%。

Also in the third quarter, we made our first sale of the non-metallurgical variety of EcoSource, our low-carbon alumina brand. Earlier this year, we started offering non-metallurgical varieties in addition to existing smelter grade EcoSource. Alcoa is one of the world's largest producers of non-metallurgical alumina, which is used in everything from refractories, sand paper and water treatment processes across the world. Our Sustana line has the aluminum industry's most comprehensive portfolio due to the range of products we offer from alumina to metal. Meanwhile, we also have customers coming to us due to our history of alloy development. Last month, we were recognized for the second year in a row with an award from the North American Die Casting Association for an Alcoa-developed alloy used in mega castings for electric vehicles. We are selling and licensing alloys that can be used to make these one-piece high-pressure die castings. With our alloys, OEMs can get a one-piece casting rather than many separate pieces, creating greater efficiency.

同樣在第三季度，我們首次銷售了我們的低碳氧化鋁品牌 EcoSource 的非冶金品種。今年早些時候，除了現有的冶煉級 EcoSource 之外，我們還開始提供非冶金品種。美鋁公司是世界上最大的非冶金氧化鋁生產商之一，其產品廣泛應用於世界各地的耐火材料、砂紙和水處理工藝等各個領域。由於我們提供從氧化鋁到金屬的產品範圍，我們的 Sustana 系列擁有鋁業最全面的產品組合。同時，由於我們的合金開發歷史，我們也有客戶來找我們。上個月，我們連續第二年因美鋁開發的電動車大型鑄件的合金而獲得北美壓鑄協會頒發的獎項。我們正在銷售和許可可用於製造這些一體式高壓鑄件的合金。借助我們的合金，原始設備製造商可以獲得一件式鑄件，而不是許多單獨的鑄件，從而提高效率。

On the cost side, our energy team signed a new 9-year power agreement in August that will cover 50% of Portland smelter capacity starting in July of '26. We continue to pursue options for the smelters remaining electricity requirements with a strong focus on renewable energy. The global alumina and aluminum markets are both balanced to a slight surplus. At the same time, aluminum inventories in terms of days of consumption remain at historically low levels, positioning the market well for when demand improves. In 2024, there is uncertainty in the markets due to a range of geopolitical and macroeconomic factors. One of the biggest questions revolves around demand outside of China. Our base view is for continued growth in transportation and recovery in the packaging and in the building and construction sector.

在成本方面，我們的能源團隊在 8 月簽署了一項新的為期 9 年的電力協議，將從 26 年 7 月開始涵蓋波特蘭冶煉廠產能的 50%。我們繼續尋求滿足冶煉廠剩餘電力需求的方案，並專注於再生能源。全球氧化鋁和鋁市場均保持平衡，略有盈餘。同時，以消費天數計算的鋁庫存仍處於歷史低點，這為市場在需求改善時做好了準備。 2024年，由於一系列地緣政治和宏觀經濟因素，市場存在不確定性。最大的問題之一是中國以外的需求。我們的基本觀點是包裝和建築業的運輸和回收將持續成長。

Within transportation, the automotive market typically drives the major trends. At this point, most of the COVID-related automotive supply chain disruptions have resolved. While uncertainty remains due to the labor actions in the United States, we anticipate year-on-year growth in tons of aluminum as automotive production continues to ramp up to 2019 levels.

在交通運輸領域，汽車市場通常推動主要趨勢。至此，大部分與新冠肺炎相關的汽車供應鏈中斷已經解決。儘管美國勞工行動仍存在不確定性，但隨著汽車產量持續升至 2019 年水平，我們預計鋁噸數將年增。

In packaging, downstream inventory levels have largely normalized, and we expect demand increasing. In building and construction, high interest rates have negatively affected that sector in the last year, particularly in North America and Europe. A relative recovery in building and construction is expected next year compared to 2023. This is based on analyst projections for slowing inflation and stabilizing interest rates, which should provide a better foundation for increased year-over-year activity, although the pace of that improvement remains uncertain and reliant on economic conditions.

在包裝方面，下游庫存水準已基本正常化，我們預計需求將會增加。在建築業，高利率去年對該行業產生了負面影響，特別是在北美和歐洲。與 2023 年相比，預計明年建築業將相對復甦。這是基於分析師對通膨放緩和利率穩定的預測，這應該為同比活動的增加提供更好的基礎，儘管改善的速度仍存在不確定性並取決於經濟狀況。

In closing, we are encouraged by the positive operational momentum in the third quarter and intend to build on that performance. Our company's primary objective is to gain approvals for bauxite mining in Western Australia. We believe we're on the right path with an updated mine plan that has an enhanced commitment meant to address the government's expectations. And importantly, we now have line of sight to decision timing, which is expected before the end of the year. Across our global operations, we are focused on improvement. We will work to increase productivity, reduce and control costs, and manage our working capital. We also are continuing work on our future-focused breakthrough technology programs, which have the potential to further differentiate our company. And finally, while some end-use sectors for aluminum are softer now, we remain bullish on the long-term fundamentals for our markets. I'm not alone in this view. I attended LME Week where the prevailing view was that aluminum is poised for long-term growth.

最後，我們對第三季的積極營運動能感到鼓舞，並打算在此基礎上再接再厲。我們公司的主要目標是獲得西澳大利亞鋁土礦開採的批准。我們相信，我們正走在正確的道路上，更新了礦山計劃，該計劃增強了旨在滿足政府期望的承諾。重要的是，我們現在可以確定決策時間，預計在今年年底前做出。在我們的全球營運中，我們專注於改進。我們將努力提高生產力，降低和控製成本，並管理我們的營運資金。我們也正在繼續致力於面向未來的突破性技術計劃，這些計劃有可能進一步使我們的公司脫穎而出。最後，雖然鋁的一些最終用途行業目前較為疲軟，但我們仍然看好市場的長期基本面。我並不孤單持這種觀點。我參加了倫敦金屬交易所週，當時盛行的觀點是鋁有望實現長期成長。

Alcoa is well positioned for this future. We have the distinct advantage of being active in all aspects of upstream aluminum production, and I'm excited about our prospects and the work ahead. With that, Molly and I are ready to take your questions.

美鋁公司已為這一未來做好了充分準備。我們擁有積極參與上游鋁生產各個方面的獨特優勢，我對我們的前景和未來的工作感到興奮。至此，莫莉和我準備好回答你們的問題了。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question is from Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities.

我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的勞森溫德。

Bill, congratulations on your new role. Yes, it's very nice to hear from you today. I just wanted to ask about Kwinana. And just with the lower grades now expected to continue through 2027 at the earliest. Is there a point at which a complete shutdown could become a high probability of risk?

比爾，恭喜你擔任新職務。是的，今天很高興收到你的來信。我只是想問一下奎納納的情況。目前，較低的成績預計最早將持續到 2027 年。是否存在完全關閉可能成為高風險風險的點？

So at Kwinana, we're essentially looking at all options. And in the near term, as you see, we've announced restructuring that takes some cost out. In addition to that, we're looking at a variety of different levers to be pulled to drive costs down and improve profitability there. But ultimately, as with any marginal asset and Kwinana is a marginal asset at this point, we'll consider options on the table, including curtailment and closure.

因此，在奎納納，我們基本上正在考慮所有選擇。正如您所看到的，在短期內，我們宣布了重組，以削減一些成本。除此之外，我們正在尋找各種不同的槓桿來降低成本並提高獲利能力。但最終，與任何邊際資產一樣，奎納納目前也是邊際資產，我們將考慮桌面上的選項，包括削減和關閉。

Okay. That's very clear. And then in a similar vein, Alcoa has had this goal of reducing its cost to first quartile level globally. With you now in the lead seat, what are your thoughts on that goal in terms of timing and achievability?

好的。這非常清楚。同樣，美國鋁業公司的目標是將其成本降低到全球第一四分位數水準。現在您處於領先位置，您對該目標的時間安排和可實現性有何看法？

Thanks, Lawson. I think we first of all, if you step back and look at where crew has us today on the cost curve, we are still first quartile bauxite mining, first quartile refining and second quartile smelting. The current situation in Western Australia puts pressure on the refining segment. So that could move us into the second quartile. But to answer your question very specifically, you see in the presentation that we did today, we highlighted productivity and competitiveness a couple of times in the presentation.

謝謝，勞森。我認為，首先，如果你退後一步，看看我們今天在成本曲線上的位置，我們仍然處於第一四分位的鋁土礦開採、第一四分位的精煉和第二四分位的冶煉。西澳大利亞州目前的局勢給煉油業帶來壓力。因此，這可能會使我們進入第二個四分位。但為了非常具體地回答您的問題，您在我們今天所做的演示中看到，我們在演示中多次強調了生產力和競爭力。

We have launched a program across the company to enhance competitiveness plant by plant and so we're essentially going after that. I think there's opportunities even in our best plants, and we highlighted the great success that we've had in Quebec so far this year. I still think there's opportunities to make those plants more competitive, take cost out and more productive. So we'll continue to strive for those targets.

我們在整個公司範圍內啟動了一項計劃，以提高各個工廠的競爭力，因此我們基本上正在努力實現這一目標。我認為即使在我們最好的工廠中也存在機會，我們強調了今年迄今為止我們在魁北克取得的巨大成功。我仍然認為有機會使這些工廠更具競爭力、降低成本並提高生產力。因此，我們將繼續努力實現這些目標。

The next question is from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

下一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Lucas Pipes。

Bill, I'd like to add my congratulations. And I wanted to pick up with the last question left off on the competitiveness. Can you maybe add a little bit more detail on (inaudible)? Is there capital needed to modernize plans? Is it streamlining some of the labor relationships? Is it energy? If you could maybe just peel the onion a little bit further, I would really appreciate your perspective.

比爾，我想表達我的祝賀。我想繼續回答關於競爭力的最後一個問題。能否加入更多細節（聽不清楚）？現代化計劃是否需要資金？是否簡化了一些勞動關係？是能量嗎？如果你能把洋蔥剝得再深一些，我真的很感激你的觀點。

Sure. So we'll peel the onion back a little bit. We -- and the plants are at varying stages of where they sit on this effort. Probably the earliest one to undertake, it was Kwinana, given some of the difficulties that we're having at Kwinana. We're looking at Kwinana from 2 perspectives. The first is an overall profitability perspective where we were looking at are there additional markets that we can address because Kwinana has NMA capability or a non-metallurgical alumina capability. Are there opportunities for pricing improvements for specific products.

當然。所以我們要把洋蔥剝一點。我們和工廠在這項工作上處於不同的階段。考慮到我們在奎納納遇到的一些困難，奎納納可能是最早採取行動的一個。我們從兩個角度來看奎納納。第一個是整體獲利能力的角度，我們正在考慮是否有其他市場可以解決，因為 Kwinana 擁有 NMA 能力或非冶金氧化鋁能力。特定產品的定價是否有改進的機會？

But then on the cost side, it's about labor productivity and maintenance productivity, so really getting down, not these upon, but to get down to the nuts and bolts of trying to determine are we effective on the maintenance side and can we significantly improve our wrench time. So that was the work that's being done at Kwinana. We subsequently launched what we're calling a workforce blueprint exercise, and it started in some of our best facilities up in Quebec. And you say, why start in some of your best facilities? Because I think if we can get gains in places like Quebec that are really, really performing well, we can probably get better gains in other parts of the system. So that is actually going through and looking at the labor that we have and the amount of time it takes to do specific tasks and a very scientific comparison of the people that we have in each plant and whether there's opportunities across the system to streamline and take cost out.

但在成本方面，這關係到勞動生產力和維護生產率，所以真正要認真對待，不是這些，而是要深入到具體細節，試圖確定我們在維護方面是否有效，以及我們能否顯著提高我們的維護效率。扳手時間。這就是奎納納正在做的工作。隨後，我們啟動了所謂的勞動力藍圖演習，並從我們位於魁北克省的一些最好的設施開始。你說，為什麼要從一些最好的設施開始呢？因為我認為，如果我們能夠在像魁北克這樣表現得非常非常好的地方獲得收益，我們可能可以在系統的其他部分獲得更好的收益。因此，這實際上是檢查我們擁有的勞動力以及完成特定任務所需的時間，並對我們每個工廠的人員進行非常科學的比較，以及整個系統是否有機會進行精簡和利用成本。

I want to follow up on Western Australia. A couple of quick questions there. First, I think the company had previously guided to, I think, 2024 at the earliest in terms of a transition back to higher grades, now 2027. Could you remind us what changed? Why 3 more years? And then if there is a kind of formal assessment at the EPA level in Western Australia, could that change the time line? Would appreciate your thoughts on that.

我想跟進西澳大利亞的情況。有幾個簡單的問題。首先，我認為公司之前預計最早要到 2024 年才能過渡到更高等級，現在是 2027 年。您能提醒我們發生了什麼變化嗎？為什麼還要3年？那麼，如果西澳大利亞州環保局層級進行正式評估，是否會改變時間表？非常感謝您對此的想法。

Sure. So if we address kind of the suite of questions that you have, I think we made good progress in the third quarter on this issue. We have been working with the government, and we've been working with the agencies and the government to get our annual mine approvals process. We submitted what's called a revised mine management program for '23 to 2027 with the enhancements that we talked about in the presentation. And essentially, where that gets us to is that we expect that decisions will be taken this quarter, both on the mine plan approvals and the EPA assessment process. So I think it's a big step forward for the company. We should have some clarity this quarter.

當然。因此，如果我們解決您提出的一系列問題，我認為我們在第三季度在這個問題上取得了良好進展。我們一直在與政府合作，我們一直在與各機構和政府合作以獲得年度礦山審批程序。我們提交了所謂的 23 年至 2027 年修訂後的礦山管理計劃，其中包括我們在演示中談到的增強功能。從本質上講，我們預計本季將就採礦計劃批准和 EPA 評估流程做出決定。所以我認為這對公司來說是向前邁出的一大步。本季我們應該會有一些清晰的認知。

Now to address your question about what changed between our prior guidance and today's guidance. If you go back and look at our prior guidance, we are very careful to note that there was not great clarity beyond 12 and 18 months. So we were essentially saying, hey, we are expecting the lower grades for a 12- to 18-month period. Since that time, with the concessions that we have made in the MMP process, we now have some better clarity. We've been able to work those concessions through the mine plans and the mine models. And we've developed the detailed plans for the most economic ways to mine the areas that are now -- that we believe are likely to be accessible under the approvals. And even with our best thoughts as far as mining and blending plans, we can't get back to the historical grades that we've seen prior times. However, as we transition to Myara North, we believe that the geological sampling in those new regions will support the better grades, that transition will occur we expect in the '27 time frame. I hope that addresses your question.

現在回答您關於我們之前的指導和今天的指導之間發生了什麼變化的問題。如果你回頭看看我們之前的指導，我們會非常小心地註意到，超過 12 個月和 18 個月的指導並沒有很明確。所以我們本質上是說，嘿，我們預計 12 到 18 個月內成績會較低。從那時起，隨著我們在 MMP 流程中做出的讓步，我們現在有了一些更好的清晰度。我們已經能夠透過礦山計劃和礦山模型來實現這些讓步。我們已經制定了詳細的計劃，以最經濟的方式開採現在的區域——我們相信在獲得批准後很可能可以進入這些區域。即使我們對採礦和混合計劃有最好的想法，我們也無法回到我們之前看到的歷史等級。然而，當我們過渡到 Myara North 時，我們相信這些新地區的地質採樣將支持更好的等級，我們預計這種過渡將在 27 年的時間範圍內發生。我希望這能解決您的問題。

The next question is from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research.

下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的 Michael Dudas。

Bill, can you just share some thoughts since you were promoted to the Chief Operating Officer earlier this year, I guess, maybe 6 or 7 months in that job. And what would you find out after moving from the finance chair about the company? And I'm assuming some of these implementations were pure ideas. And how you're going to translate that as CEO to allow Alcoa to capture more of the anticipated cost reductions and likely hopefully pricing improvements that should run through the business in a more normalized environment over the next couple of years?

Bill，您能分享一下自從您今年早些時候晉升為首席營運長以來的一些想法嗎？我猜，可能在該職位上工作了 6 或 7 個月。從財務主席職位卸任後，您會發現哪些有關公司的資訊？我假設其中一些實現純粹是想法。作為首席執行官，您將如何將這一點轉化為讓美國鋁業能夠更多地實現預期的成本削減以及有望在未來幾年在更加規範化的環境中貫穿整個業務的定價改進？

So what I found out when I transitioned from a long stint as the CFO, 10 years as the CFO into what turned out to be a short stint in the COO role was a couple of things. First of all, I was happy to find that we have great people in operations. We have people who have long tenure, 20, 30 years with the company that have tremendous institutional knowledge. But we've also brought in a lot of newer people who see things new ways and do things new ways, so I was really pleased to get to see that. And just (inaudible) I loved my COO role for 8 months. .

因此，當我從擔任了 10 年的長期財務長到短暫擔任營運長一職後，我發現了一些事情。首先，我很高興發現我們有優秀的營運人員。我們的員工在公司工作了 20、30 年，擁有豐富的機構知識。但我們也引進了許多新人，他們以新的方式看待事物、以新的方式做事，所以我很高興看到這一點。只是（聽不清楚）我熱愛我的營運長角色長達 8 個月。 。

The other thing that I learned though is that there is a tremendous amount of opportunity out there. And people were really wanting to do things differently, wanting to aggressively address some things. And so I thought there was a tremendous amount of opportunity. So if I transition to some thoughts around the CEO role, just to be clear, and I'm sure this question maybe was embedded in your original question or will be asked later on, the strategy and direction of the company is largely unchanged. We know where we're going from a strategic perspective. The thing that I'm trying to drive as CEO and you see this changing over the last year or so is really a cultural change. That cultural change is making decisions at a faster pace, it's having a performance orientation in everything we do and really an expectation of excellence in everything we do. And I hit upon this in my prepared remarks, whether it's operations, maintenance, finance, an expectation of really being excellent.

我學到的另一件事是，那裡有大量的機會。人們確實想要以不同的方式做事，想要積極地解決一些問題。所以我認為有大量的機會。因此，如果我轉向圍繞執行長角色的一些想法，請澄清一下，我確信這個問題可能已包含在您最初的問題中或稍後會被問到，公司的策略和方向基本上沒有改變。從策略角度來看，我們知道我們要去哪裡。作為首席執行官，我試圖推動的事情在過去一年左右發生了變化，這實際上是一種文化變革。這種文化變革正在以更快的速度做出決策，它在我們所做的一切中都以績效為導向，並且真正期望我們所做的一切都追求卓越。我在準備好的發言中偶然想到了這一點，無論是營運、維護、財務，都期望真正做到優秀。

If we then couple that with what I think are the inherent advantages of Alcoa. So some of the inherent advantages of our company. We're present in all aspects of the value chain. We're a pure-play aluminum company. We're not spending time on other parts of battery minerals. We are focused exclusively on being successful in aluminum. We have a global presence. And back to that first part of the question, I think we have unmatched technical expertise still in this company. We haven't really shown it the last couple of years on the operations side. But I think it's there, and we're starting to show it now.

如果我們將其與我認為的美鋁的固有優勢結合。那麼我們公司的一些先天優勢。我們涉足價值鏈的各個面向。我們是一家純粹的鋁公司。我們不會花時間研究電池礦物的其他部分。我們專注於在鋁業取得成功。我們的業務遍及全球。回到問題的第一部分，我認為我們公司仍然擁有無與倫比的技術專長。過去幾年我們在營運方面並沒有真正展示這一點。但我認為它就在那裡，我們現在開始展示它。

So when I combine all of that, I translate that into an ambition for the company that we want to reestablish ourselves as the premier aluminum company in the world. And I think we can do that. And not to go on too long, Michael. I'm really excited and really happy to be in the role that I'm in.

因此，當我將所有這些結合起來時，我將其轉化為公司的雄心壯志，也就是我們希望將自己重新打造為世界領先的鋁業公司。我認為我們可以做到這一點。不要說得太久，麥可。我真的很興奮也很高興能夠擔任我所扮演的角色。

I appreciate all those observations. Looking out, how quickly do you think you can implement the culture and kind of get best practices throughout the organization and productivity enhancements to show meaningful results or achieve those goals? Is it 3 month, 6 months, a year? Is there something that can -- how urgent do you see that process (inaudible)?

我很欣賞所有這些觀察。展望一下，您認為您可以多快地在整個組織中實施這種文化並獲得最佳實踐並提高生產力，以顯示有意義的結果或實現這些目標？是3個月、6個月還是一年？有沒有什麼可以－您認為這個過程有多緊急（聽不清楚）？

Right. So Rome wasn't built in a day. We're not going to change the culture of this company in a day, a week, a quarter. However, look at the bridge that Molly showed, we saw production cost improvements for the first time in a long time in the third quarter. And just so you understand how that bridge works, that's largely because we were able to make the tons. And so we were able to make the tons in the third quarter. And the guidance that she gave was pretty strong guidance with the exception of the carbon change from the Norwegian government, which is totally outside of our control. So I think we're seeing some of that change today already, and I think you'll see more in the future. And everybody I talk to within Alcoa, here is the story of performance culture. We're trying to drive a performance culture.

正確的。所以羅馬不是一天造成的。我們不會在一天、一週、一個季度內改變這家公司的文化。然而，看看莫莉展示的橋樑，我們在第三季度看到了很長一段時間以來的首次生產成本改善。為了讓您了解這座橋是如何運作的，這很大程度上是因為我們能夠製造大量的橋。因此我們能夠在第三季實現大量生產。她給出的指導是相當強有力的指導，但挪威政府的碳排放變化除外，這完全超出了我們的控制範圍。所以我認為我們今天已經看到了一些變化，我認為您將來會看到更多。我在美鋁內部與每個人交談過，這裡是績效文化的故事。我們正在努力推動績效文化。

And it's all about having expectations of excellence and driving those expectations of excellence. And I think we've seen that on the op side to some extent. We set records in Quebec. We're getting better stability in places like Brazil and the restart, much significantly better stability and operational performance in our Western Australia assets even though they have worse bauxite quality. So I think we're seeing it now and hopefully accelerates into the future.

這一切都是為了抱持卓越的期望並推動這些卓越的期望。我認為我們在某種程度上已經看到了這一點。我們在魁北克創造了記錄。我們在巴西和重啟等地獲得了更好的穩定性，在我們的西澳大利亞資產中，儘管鋁土礦品質較差，但穩定性和營運績效卻顯著提高。所以我認為我們現在已經看到了這一點，並希望未來能加速實現。

The next question is from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的比爾彼得森。

Bill, good luck in the new role. So wanted to take a step back to maybe more macro supply-demand. So you just said you attended LME Week. I guess what is the latest just seeing in terms of supply-demand balance, I guess, in the context of restart (inaudible) relatively weak macro backdrop? And then I guess maybe on the end market demand side, where are you seeing most resilience? What's -- and then what remains the most muted? And any sort of color between regions?

比爾，祝你在新角色上好運。因此，我想退一步考慮更多的宏觀供需。你剛才說你參加了倫敦金屬交易所週。我猜想，在重啟（聽不清楚）相對疲軟的宏觀背景下，就供需平衡而言，最新的情況是什麼？然後我想也許在終端市場需求方面，您在哪裡看到最具彈性的地方？那什麼是最沉默的呢？區域之間有任何顏色嗎？

So 2023 is going to go down as a pretty tough year for the aluminum industry. In 2023, we see a slight surplus on the aluminum side. On alumina, it's fairly balanced. And so on the aluminum side, we see about an 800,000 ton surplus in 2023. The reason for that is demand in rest of the world actually contracted in 2023. So some of the big demand drivers in the rest of world that we have seen this year are really a reduction -- significant reduction in building and construction, actually a reduction of demand in packaging of all places, ever so slight. And so across the board, we're seeing some weakness in the end markets.

因此，2023 年對於鋁業來說將是相當艱難的一年。 2023年，我們看到鋁方面略有盈餘。在氧化鋁上，它相當平衡。因此，在鋁方面，我們預計 2023 年將出現約 80 萬噸的過剩。原因是世界其他地區的需求實際上在 2023 年出現收縮。因此，我們看到世界其他地區的一些重大需求驅動因素今年確實減少了——建築和施工大幅減少，實際上所有地方的包裝需求都減少了，儘管非常輕微。因此，總體而言，我們看到終端市場出現一些疲軟。

Now you referenced my trip to the LME Week. Pretty resoundingly, what we hear amongst all the industry players is that 2023 and maybe going into 2024, can still be difficult times for aluminum, but it's just a matter of time where aluminum has significantly better market environment. The reason why we see that is that demand continues to grow, starting to see even in 2024, a rebound in places like building and construction, some of the destocking that we saw occur in can sheet is now over, so we should see a rebound in demand there.

現在你提到了我的倫敦金屬交易所週之旅。相當響亮的是，我們從所有行業參與者中聽到的是，2023 年甚至可能進入 2024 年，對於鋁來說仍然是困難時期，但鋁擁有明顯更好的市場環境只是時間問題。我們看到這種情況的原因是需求持續成長，甚至在 2024 年就開始看到建築業等領域的反彈，我們看到的罐頭板材的一些去庫存現在已經結束，所以我們應該會看到反彈那裡有需求。

And we fundamentally believe that the Chinese cap on supply will be maintained at the 45 million metric tons, and we can address why we believe that. But over time, we see that the market fundamentals for the metal itself, really driven by some of the macro trends over the longer period of time with EVs and solar should be significantly better than they are today. But with that said, it's been a pretty tough year on demand in aluminum.

我們從根本上相信，中國的供應上限將維持在 4500 萬噸，我們可以解釋為什麼我們相信這一點。但隨著時間的推移，我們看到金屬本身的市場基本面，實際上是由電動車和太陽能在較長時間內的一些宏觀趨勢所推動的，應該會比現在好得多。但話雖如此，今年對鋁的需求來說是相當艱難的一年。

That's great color. I may have missed it, but I believe last quarter, you -- there was an update about San Ciprian, discussing the planned Phase 3 starting at the beginning of 2024 with full restart by October '25. And then obviously trying to basically capture and set the PPAs in motion. But can you give us an update there? Again, I may have missed it, but I didn't see that in the prepared remarks.

那顏色真棒。我可能錯過了，但我相信上個季度，您 - 有關於圣西普里安的更新，討論了計劃於 2024 年初開始的第三階段，並在 25 年 10 月之前全面重啟。然後顯然是試圖從根本上捕獲並啟動購電協議。但你能給我們更新一下嗎？再說一次，我可能錯過了，但我在準備好的發言中沒有看到這一點。

Yes. So let me give you an update. We continue to work toward really achieving long-term economic viability of the site in Spain. And in the case of the smelter, that allows for a restart in 2024. However, as basically the question that you just asked, we're starting -- we see significant challenges that need to be overcome for that site to be viable, including soft demand for the value-add products. That site makes slab and billet, low aluminum prices. In this -- in the case of Europe, high power costs and delay in permitting and construction of some of the alternative power supplies that we have been looking at. We hope to overcome these challenges to allow for a progressive restart through the end of 2025, but it's been and it remains very difficult. So that's the situation in Spain.

是的。讓我向您通報最新情況。我們將繼續努力真正實現西班牙工廠的長期經濟可行性。就冶煉廠而言，可以在 2024 年重新啟動。但是，正如您剛才提出的問題一樣，我們正在開始——我們看到要使工廠可行，需要克服重大挑戰，包括對增值產品的需求疲軟。工廠生產板坯和方坯，鋁價低廉。就歐洲而言，電力成本高昂，我們一直在考慮的一些替代電源的許可和建設延遲。我們希望克服這些挑戰，以便在 2025 年底前逐步重啟，但無論過去或現在都非常困難。這就是西班牙的情況。

The next question is from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Independent Research.

下一個問題來自約翰‧圖馬佐斯獨立研究中心的約翰‧圖馬佐斯。

Comparing to the containerboard market today, International Paper announced they were shutting 900,000 tons or about 2.5% of U.S. supply. In the world aluminum market, obviously, China is 59% of output. And some of the other continents don't have very much production left. The bigger other regions are Russia, which is hydro, Canada, which is hydro, India, which is coal, and the Persian Gulf, which is gas. Do you think it's possible to have a 2.5% supply reduction event in the world aluminum industry the way it's structured today?

與今天的箱板紙市場相比，國際紙業宣布將關閉 90 萬噸，即美國供應量的 2.5% 左右。顯然，在世界鋁市場上，中國產量佔59%。其他一些大陸的產量也所剩無幾。其他較大的地區是俄羅斯（水力發電）、加拿大（水力發電）、印度（煤炭）和波斯灣（天然氣）。您認為按照目前的結構，全球鋁業有可能出現 2.5% 的供應減少事件嗎？

John, that's a hard question, and give me just a second to formulate an answer.

約翰，這是一個很難回答的問題，請給我一點時間來回答。

Sure. I'm sorry to compare. There's never been a 10% non-recessionary fall in the containerboard industry before. It took that industry a long time to get a grip on it. And aluminum isn't down 10%, but it's just not growing the way would be normal.

當然。不好意思比較一下。箱板紙產業以前從未出現過 10% 的非衰退性下滑。這個行業花了很長時間才獲得控制權。鋁的價格並沒有下降 10%，只是沒有以正常的方式成長。

So let me give you -- and you and I have known each other a long time, and we've both been around this industry for a long time. So let me give you a qualitative historical perspective. This industry has not had a problem on the demand side with the exception of the global financial crisis, where we saw demand fall off and that inventory is built. This year, we've seen demand fall off, and yet inventories have not been built significantly. So inventories and whether they're on the LME or on the market or off-market inventories, remain historically pretty low.

所以讓我告訴你——你和我已經認識很久了，而且我們都在這個行業工作了很長時間。因此，讓我給您一個定性的歷史視角。除了全球金融危機期間，我們看到需求下降和庫存增加之外，這個產業在需求方面沒有出現問題。今年，我們看到需求下降，但庫存卻沒有大幅增加。因此，庫存，無論是倫敦金屬交易所、市場上或場外庫存，都保持在歷史上相當低的水平。

As we look forward, we see a rebound of demand going into 2024 and really see strong demand trends that are driven by the mega trends going out into the future. The question has historically been, will the Chinese maintain the 45 million metric ton cap? We are seeing indications that we believe that they will maintain that cap. If they do maintain that cap and demand continues to grow, that should assist the fundamentals of the industry.

展望未來，我們看到需求將在 2024 年反彈，並且真正看到由未來大趨勢驅動的強勁需求趨勢。歷史上的問題是，中國會維持 4500 萬噸的上限嗎？我們看到有跡象表明我們相信他們將維持這個上限。如果他們確實維持上限和需求持續成長，這應該有助於該行業的基本面。

As far as significant -- and to address your question, 2.5% cut in supply, the areas around the world where supply is under pressure, specifically is in Europe. And we know that there are some plants that have hedged that those hedges will be rolling off over time. We have our own challenged plant in Europe. And so it will remain to be seen whether the industry takes a 2.5% cut-out or not.

至於重要的——為了解決你的問題，供應量減少了 2.5%，世界各地供應面臨壓力的地區，特別是歐洲。我們知道，有些工廠已經進行了對沖，但隨著時間的推移，這些對沖將會消失。我們在歐洲有自己的面臨挑戰的工廠。因此，該行業是否採取 2.5% 的削減還有待觀察。

The next question is from Alex Hacking with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Alex Hacking。

And let me add my congratulations, Bill, on the new role. Just following up on WA, right? So it seems like we're in the low grades now until 2027. As we think about the mine moves north that are going to (inaudible) mining in 2027. What are the major risk factors around that? How should we think about that? And how should we think about the time line? Because if you're going to be mining in 2027, I assume you need infrastructure, pre-stripping, all kinds of things that are going to need to be done ahead of that. So I guess, how should we think about the risks and time lines?

比爾，讓我對這個新角色表示祝賀。只是跟進 WA，對嗎？因此，在 2027 年之前，我們的品位似乎都處於低水平。當我們考慮到礦山嚮北移動，並將在 2027 年（聽不清楚）採礦時，主要的風險因素是什麼？我們該如何思考這個問題？我們應該如何考慮時間軸？因為如果你要在 2027 年進行採礦，我假設你需要基礎設施、預剝離以及在此之前需要完成的各種事情。所以我想，我們應該如何考慮風險和時間表？

So Molly and I are going to team up on this a little bit. The permitting process that we have undertaken for the Myara North move is what's called a Part IV permitting process. It is a modernized recognized permitting process within Western Australia for starting a new mine site. And it requires a lot of information. And so we made that choice going back, I think it was in 2020 to move to that modernized process for Myara North. We made that choice because we recognized that the customized process that we have currently really needed to be modernized and our stakeholders wanted the more modernized process. So the risk that I see is around that permitting process.

所以莫莉和我將在這方面進行一些合作。我們為邁拉北搬遷所採取的許可程序稱為第四部分許可程序。這是西澳大利亞州內認可的現代化新礦場許可程序。而且它需要大量的資訊。因此，我們做出了這樣的選擇：我認為是在 2020 年，Myara North 轉向現代化流程。我們做出這個選擇是因為我們認識到我們目前的客製化流程確實需要現代化，而我們的利害關係人也希望採用更現代化的流程。因此，我看到的風險與許可流程有關。

Now we're doing everything that we can to mitigate that risk. And when we get closer to that time period, we will have line of sight. I can tell you, we are very energized around reducing the time between when we get that permit to go and when we open up the mine phase. And given the fact that we've had some delays in permitting, we're really trying to focus our efforts on making sure that we minimize that time between getting the permit and actually getting bauxite out of the ground. So Molly, anything you want to add to that?

現在我們正在盡一切努力來降低這種風險。當我們接近那個時間段時，我們就會看到視線。我可以告訴你，我們非常熱衷於縮短從獲得許可到開始採礦階段之間的時間。考慮到我們在許可方面存在一些延誤，我們確實在努力集中精力，確保最大限度地縮短獲得許可和實際開採鋁土礦之間的時間。莫莉，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I'll just add as far as our guidance on about $45 million impact that we're currently seeing in the quarter. We have plans to continue to mitigate that number. You saw the first action announced this quarter with Kwinana's severance program there. So that will save $10 million, and it's just the first bit of announcement, but we will keep moving through and finding productivity enhancements or portfolio changes to work that number down.

不，我只是補充一下我們目前在本季看到的約 4500 萬美元影響的指導。我們計劃繼續減少這個數字。您看到了本季宣布的第一個行動，即奎納納的遣散計劃。因此，這將節省 1000 萬美元，這只是宣布的第一部分，但我們將繼續努力，尋找生產力提高或投資組合變化來降低這個數字。

That's helpful. I guess when you talk about the permits, obviously, being the key risk. If I remember correctly, there are some potential issues with proximity to local communities. Are there other major permitting hurdles that you could foresee? I know this is a very kind of generic question, but any more color would be helpful.

這很有幫助。我想當你談論許可證時，顯然，這是關鍵風險。如果我沒記錯的話，靠近當地社區存在一些潛在的問題。您可以預見到還有其他主要的許可障礙嗎？我知道這是一個非常普遍的問題，但更多的顏色會有所幫助。

The -- not forecasting any issues around the Part 4 process per se. But let me give you color around some of the concessions that we've made in the current process, the current MMP process, which we anticipate to be decided by the end of this year. We've added additional controls for protection of drinking water. We have agreed on distances from mining a certain distance from some of the key reservoirs and we've agreed to accelerating rehabilitation and to increase the biodiversity in the near term on the rehab. So those are the 3 areas that we have been discussing with the stakeholders and to try to get the current mine approvals through the process.

- 沒有預測第 4 部分流程本身的任何問題。但讓我向大家介紹一下我們在當前流程、目前的 MMP 流程中所做的一些讓步，我們預計將在今年年底做出決定。我們增加了額外的控制措施來保護飲用水。我們已就採礦距離與一些關鍵水庫保持一定距離達成一致，並同意在近期加速恢復並增加恢復過程中的生物多樣性。這些是我們一直在與利益相關者討論的三個領域，並試圖透過該流程獲得當前的礦山批准。

Okay. And then just a quick follow-up on Alumar, if I may. I think the message last quarter there was you fixed the conveyor issues and above 60%. Has something else gone wrong in the last quarter? Or are you still on track from where you were then?

好的。如果可以的話，然後對 Alumar 進行快速跟進。我認為上個季度的消息是您修復了傳送帶問題，並且修復率超過 60%。上個季度還有其他問題嗎？或者你仍然在原來的軌道上嗎？

Something big happened in Brazil in the quarter. There was a massive power outage. And if you follow our competitor there, Alunorte had the same issue, Albras had the same issue. We lost power for close to 3.5 hours in the smelter at Alumar. And that has knock-on impacts not only on the smelter, but on the refinery, too. Now thank goodness, we had good stability. We had recovered stability going into that. We were able to get through that power outage. You -- what happens in a power outage in a smelter is that you stress the pots, bringing them back online. We lost a few pots, I think we probably lost close to a dozen pots bringing the plant back online from that power outage.

本季巴西發生了一件大事。發生了大規模停電。如果你關注我們的競爭對手，Alunorte 也有同樣的問題，Albras 也有同樣的問題。我們 Alumar 的冶煉廠停電近 3.5 小時。這不僅對冶煉廠產生連鎖反應，而且對煉油廠也產生連鎖反應。現在謝天謝地，我們的穩定性很好。我們已經恢復了穩定。我們能夠渡過停電的難關。當冶煉廠停電時，您會對罐子施加壓力，然後將它們恢復在線狀態。我們失去了一些盆子，我想我們可能失去了近十幾個盆子，使工廠從停電中恢復過來。

So that was a setback that really is out of the control. It impacted something like 2/3 of the country in Brazil. And so it was a setback for the plant, they've recovered. They have a daily action plan. It's a daily go-no-go on restarting pots and increasing average. And as we said in the prepared remarks, we're at about 65% today.

所以這是一次真正無法控制的挫折。它影響了巴西約 2/3 的國土面積。所以這對工廠來說是一次挫折，但他們已經恢復了。他們有每日行動計劃。每天都不能再重新開始彩池並提高平均值。正如我們在準備好的演講中所說，我們今天的進度約為 65%。

The next question is from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的 Timna Tanners。

I thought I would pivot a little bit, if I could, talking a little bit about some of your strategic initiatives and the cash flows, if I could. So first off, I just want to ask, I know you talked about advances in EcoLum and EcoSource, but can you elaborate a bit on the premium that you're garnering there?

如果可以的話，我想我會稍微調整一下，談談你們的一些策略舉措和現金流。首先，我想問一下，我知道您談到了 EcoLum 和 EcoSource 的進步，但是您能否詳細說明您在那裡獲得的溢價？

So the premiums are consistent with the premiums that you see quoted on various sources. So it depends on the product, but the premiums are anywhere between $10 and $30 a ton.

因此，保費與您在各種來源上看到的報價一致。所以這取決於產品，但溢價在每噸 10 美元到 30 美元之間。

Okay. That's helpful. And then if we look at your cash balance, I know in the past, you've said that you wanted to keep it at or below -- at or above $1 billion. And it kept below that. I know it's not a perfect number. But if we look at the cash resources and use year-to-date, there's not a lot of free cash flow at these commodity prices, even with the third quarter strong working capital release. And then we had from your Investor Day, a great amount of initiatives that you were progressing on. I know you referred to them in the beginning as well like (inaudible), et cetera. And I'm just wondering, how do we reconcile, again, this commodity price environment with some of those initiatives and some of the cash needs to source those? So the CapEx requirements going forward, are they compatible with this earnings environment? Or how are you thinking about that?

好的。這很有幫助。然後，如果我們看看你的現金餘額，我知道你過去曾說過你希望將其保持在 10 億美元或以下，即 10 億美元或以上。它一直低於這個水平。我知道這不是一個完美的數字。但如果我們看看今年迄今的現金資源和使用情況，即使第三季營運資金釋放強勁，以這些商品價格計算，也沒有大量自由現金流。然後，從您的投資者日開始，我們就收到了您正在實施的大量措施。我知道您一開始也提到過它們（聽不清楚）等等。我只是想知道，我們如何再次協調這種商品價格環境與其中一些舉措以及採購這些舉措的一些現金需求？那麼未來的資本支出要求是否與這種獲利環境相容？還是你怎麼想的？

Okay. Thanks, Timna. First of all, thanks for asking me a question. So let me just say on our cash position now, we're at $926 million. We still have access to significant liquidities. So we have our undrawn revolving credit agreement. We have our auxiliary credit line, so those are available to us as needed. As you know, we've taken action in the past, working capital programs to monetize that. We can take more aggressive actions on cost control and portfolio actions. But for us, if I look at kind of the short-term cash preservation, it really is focusing on our operations that are consuming more cash than generating. So that is the focus. Bill mentioned earlier. We have key sites that we are working to improve. So that's the near term on the cash management.

好的。謝謝，蒂姆納。首先，感謝您向我提問。我現在只想說一下我們的現金狀況，我們的現金狀況為 9.26 億美元。我們仍然可以獲得大量流動資金。所以我們有未提取的循環信貸協議。我們有輔助信用額度，因此我們可以根據需要使用這些信用額度。如您所知，我們過去已採取行動，透過營運資金計畫將其貨幣化。我們可以在成本控制和投資組合方面採取更積極的行動。但對我們來說，如果我考慮短期現金保存，它實際上關注的是我們消耗現金多於產生現金的業務。這就是重點。比爾之前提到過。我們正在努力改進一些關鍵站點。這就是現金管理的近期情況。

On our CapEx. You can even see from this year instead of adding to our CapEx project list and filling the queue to spend the whole budget, we ended up staying just with the capital plans that were already on the agenda. As they slowed spending, which typically happens, we allowed that just to happen. And so we've saved some money on CapEx. We can do that again with the programs that are in the next Q. And if you look out to our breakthrough technologies, each of those have to meet a certain criteria before they're going to receive funding, most of those now are pointing toward funding in 2025 and later. So we still have time for those and working through that financing and funding.

在我們的資本支出上。您甚至可以從今年看到，我們沒有添加到我們的資本支出項目清單中並填寫隊列來花費整個預算，而是最終停留在已經列入議程的資本計劃上。當他們放慢支出時（這種情況通常會發生），我們就允許這種情況發生。因此，我們在資本支出上節省了一些錢。我們可以透過下一個問題中的專案再次做到這一點。如果你專注於我們的突破性技術，每項技術都必須滿足一定的標準才能獲得資金，其中大多數現在都指向2025 年及以後提供資金。因此，我們仍然有時間進行這些工作並完成融資和融資工作。

Got it. So bluntly then, if the commodity price stays at these levels, no concerns in terms of proceeding with some of those initiatives, (inaudible), et cetera. But if we started to get into 2025 and didn't see much aluminum price improvement, then it might be needing to rethink some of those capital outlays. Is that a fair conclusion?

知道了。坦白說，如果大宗商品價格保持在這些水平，就無需擔心繼續實施其中一些舉措（聽不清楚）等。但如果我們開始進入 2025 年並且沒有看到鋁價有太大改善，那麼可能需要重新考慮其中一些資本支出。這是一個公平的結論嗎？

Yes, that's fair, Timna.

是的，這很公平，蒂姆納。

The next question is from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

Congratulation, Bill. Just on coming back to Western Australia. So I just want to understand if you know or what might be the potentially the implications of the EPA deciding to do a formal assessment of your MMPs and mining plans. Would that result primarily on just a longer approval process, maybe more detailed analysis and requirements? Or will also result in higher cost maybe above -- not beyond the 45 that you have, but that would prevent the 45 to completely come back to zero once you are getting into the 2027 mining plan or those areas in 2027 with better bauxite quality?

恭喜，比爾。剛回到西澳大利亞。因此，我只想了解您是否知道，或者 EPA 決定對您的 MMP 和採礦計劃進行正式評估可能會產生什麼潛在影響。這是否會導致審批流程更長、分析和要求更詳細？或者還會導致更高的成本 - 不超過您擁有的 45，但是一旦您進入 2027 年採礦計劃或 2027 年鋁土礦質量更好的地區，這將阻止 45 完全回到零？

So Carlos, you can imagine, we completely understand what the process is at least from a legal and a technical perspective going forward. I really hate to speculate on what an assessment would look like, what an assessment would cover. And until we had better insight into the EPA's decision-making process around what they would actually be assessing, it's really hard to answer that question. We're moving forward on the path to over the next 75 days to ensure that our permits get approved through the process. And that's the focus. If we find ourselves in an assessment of part of the process, we'll have to determine what is assessed and what the impact will be at that point, and we'll let you know.

所以卡洛斯，你可以想像，我們完全理解這個過程，至少從法律和技術的角度來看。我真的很討厭猜測評估會是什麼樣子，評估會涵蓋什麼。在我們更了解美國環保署圍繞其實際評估內容的決策過程之前，很難回答這個問題。我們將在接下來的 75 天內繼續前進，以確保我們的許可證通過整個流程獲得批准。這就是重點。如果我們發現自己正在評估部分流程，我們將必須確定評估的內容以及屆時會產生什麼影響，我們會通知您。

All right. Okay. And before I ask a question on smelting. Just a clarification, maybe, Molly, I thought you had guided to around $55 million impact in the third quarter because of the bauxite issues, increasing from $45 million in the second quarter. And so you did better than that, right? Just to make sure that, that is based on the initiatives and the efforts you are doing to control these costs?

好的。好的。在我問一個關於冶煉的問題之前。只是澄清一下，莫莉，我認為由於鋁土礦問題，您已將第三季的影響從第二季的 4500 萬美元增加到了 5500 萬美元左右。所以你做得比那更好，對吧？只是為了確保這是基於您為控制這些成本所採取的措施和努力？

Yes. Carlos, it's actually 3 things. We did draw on stockpiles that had slightly better quality than we expected during the third quarter. We also see the refineries operating very well with the lower bauxite quality. And then third, you're right, the mitigation efforts are just starting to drive down costs.

是的。卡洛斯，其實是三件事。我們確實利用了第三季庫存的品質略好於我們的預期。我們也看到煉油廠運作良好，但鋁土礦品質較低。第三，你是對的，緩解措施剛開始降低成本。

All right. And then finally, is there any update or any comment that you can provide on the situation of your European smelters? I mean Lista remains with 1/3 of the capacity shut down. I don't know if there is any renegotiation or upcoming renegotiations of contracts for energy in Lista or Mosjoen (inaudible) given where prices are today?

好的。最後，您對歐洲冶煉廠的情況有什麼更新或評論嗎？我的意思是 Lista 仍有 1/3 的產能被關閉。鑑於目前的價格，我不知道利斯塔或莫斯約恩（聽不清楚）是否有任何重新談判或即將進行的能源合約重新談判？

So let's look at them independently. Mosjoen is very well positioned and has a good energy source and is probably one of our most profitable plants in the system. So Mosjoen is in good shape. However, this new carbon legislation that is potential that could be passed into law in December. I think we've noted the fact that we could have up to $24 million negative in the fourth quarter associated with Mosjoen and Lista based on that new carbon legislation. That type of a change in legislation makes it really difficult to make long-term decisions around investments in places like Norway.

因此，讓我們獨立地看待它們。 Mosjoen 地理位置優越，擁有良好的能源，可能是我們系統中最賺錢的工廠之一。所以Mosjoen的狀態很好。然而，這項新的碳立法有可能在 12 月通過成為法律。我認為我們已經注意到這樣一個事實，即根據新的碳立法，第四季度 Mosjoen 和 Lista 可能會帶來高達 2400 萬美元的負收益。這種立法變化使得在挪威等地的投資方面做出長期決策變得非常困難。

So it's one of the disappointing things that I continue to see out of the Norwegian budgeting system that it really makes it hard to determine that you're going to put a lot of capital into an environment where there's not a good structure around carbon or at least a predictable structure around carbon. In the case of Lista, Lista is slightly different. No plans at this point to potentially restart that idle capacity. Lista, given its size, given its age, given its cost structure is under a lot of pressure. And so revert back to my comments from earlier in the presentation, Lista is an area that we're looking at. It's very similar to Kwinana, every opportunity to try to make that plant more competitive and we need to, given some of the headwinds it's facing, especially on the carbon side.

因此，我在挪威預算體系中繼續看到的令人失望的事情之一是，它確實讓人很難確定是否要將大量資本投入到一個圍繞碳或在碳方面沒有良好結構的環境中。至少有一個圍繞碳的可預測的結構。就 Lista 而言，Lista 略有不同。目前尚無計劃重新啟動閒置產能。考慮到其規模、年齡和成本結構，Lista 面臨很大的壓力。回到我在簡報前面的評論，Lista 是我們正在研究的一個領域。這與奎納納非常相似，考慮到它面臨的一些阻力，特別是在碳方面，我們需要利用一切機會來嘗試使工廠更具競爭力。

All right. Great. (inaudible) you have also a good contract there and no changes in the short term, right?

好的。偉大的。 （聽不清楚）你在那裡也有一份很好的合同，並且短期內沒有變化，對吧？

We have a long-term power contract in Iceland. There is a repricing mechanism that comes up later in the decade, but that's later in the, I want to say, in the 2027, 2028 time frame.

我們在冰島有長期電力合約。重新定價機制將在本十年晚些時候出現，但我想說的是，在 2027 年、2028 年的時間範圍內。

The next question is from Chris LaFemina with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Chris LaFemina。

Congratulations on the new role and good luck. So just a question on the WA mining situation. So if the EPA does an assessment on the 2022 5-year plan, which is, I guess, the one that you're operating under right now, can you continue to mine? So I understand the point about low grade until 2027 when you move up to Myara and Holyoake. But before that, is there a risk that they would basically not allow you to mine because they're reviewing the plan that you're currently operating at? Or do you have confidence that you'd be able to continue to mine into the existing plan?

祝賀新角色並祝你好運。所以只是關於西澳採礦情況的問題。因此，如果 EPA 對 2022 年 5 年計劃（我猜是您現在正在執行的計劃）進行評估，您可以繼續採礦嗎？所以我理解關於低等級的觀點，直到 2027 年，當你升級到 Myara 和 Holyoake 時。但在此之前，是否存在他們基本上不允許你挖礦的風險，因為他們正在審查你目前正在運營的計劃？或者您有信心能夠繼續挖掘現有計劃嗎？

Well, I think that there are a variety of different outcomes that could occur if they go to a full assessment. But again, as I answered to Carlos, let's see what gets assessed and we will react accordingly. We're confident that we are doing all the right things to avoid either having an assessment or not getting our mine permits approved. So we're doing all the right things. We have line of sight to have an answer this quarter, we believe. And if we -- depending on that outcome, we will take the right actions.

嗯，我認為如果進行全面評估，可能會出現各種不同的結果。但同樣，正如我對卡洛斯的回答，讓我們看看評估了什麼，我們將做出相應的反應。我們相信，我們正在做所有正確的事情，以避免進行評估或未獲得採礦許可證的批准。所以我們正在做所有正確的事情。我們相信，我們預計在本季度得到答案。如果我們——根據結果，我們將採取正確的行動。

And does the decision that the EPA makes as to whether they'll do an assessment, get impacted by the concessions that you're offering to make now? Or do they just base it on what the existing plan basically allows you to do?

環保署所做的是否進行評估的決定是否會受到你們現在所做的讓步的影響？或者他們只是基於現有計劃基本上允許你做的事情？

I don't know the answer to that one. So we would need to revert back to you.

我不知道這個問題的答案。因此，我們需要回覆您。

And our final question today is a follow-up from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

我們今天的最後一個問題是 Lucas Pipes 和 B. Riley Securities 的後續報導。

Western Australia again, the $45 million. Order of magnitude, what sort of savings could you be looking at? I think you noted $10 million at Kwinana that would take it down to $43 million or so per quarter going forward. Order of magnitude, how much more could you be looking at?

再次是西澳大利亞，4500萬澳元。您可以考慮節省哪些數量級？我想您注意到 Kwinana 的 1000 萬美元將使其未來每季下降至 4300 萬美元左右。數量級，您還能看到多少？

Lucas, I don't have a number. Again, these are efforts that we're going to continue to work through. And as they are restructuring our programs that need to be announced, we'll certainly do that. Otherwise, you'll simply see the additional savings work into our outlook as we progress through time. But I can tell you, we have dedicated teams on it. They're working very aggressively to identify savings. We've got a great pipeline of opportunities. So I do believe we will have meaningful mitigation to share, but I don't have a number for you today.

盧卡斯，我沒有電話號碼。同樣，這些都是我們將繼續努力的方向。當他們正在重組我們需要宣布的計劃時，我們當然會這樣做。否則，隨著時間的推移，您只會看到額外的節省對我們的前景產生影響。但我可以告訴你，我們有專門的團隊。他們正在非常積極地努力尋找節省的資金。我們有大量的機會。因此，我確實相信我們將分享有意義的緩解措施，但今天我沒有具體數字可以提供給您。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Oplinger for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉回由奧普林格先生致閉幕詞。

Thanks for your questions and interest in our company. As you can hear from my comments, it's a true honor to lead this company as we position for long-term success. I really believe with disciplined focus and you've heard a lot of our talk around disciplined focus today, we'll build an even stronger company for the future. I look forward to talking to many of you in the fourth quarter results in January and until then, be safe.

感謝您的提問以及對我們公司的興趣。正如您從我的評論中聽到的那樣，領導這家公司是我們真正的榮幸，因為我們致力於長期成功。我真的相信，透過嚴格的專注，您今天已經聽過我們很多關於嚴格的專注的討論，我們將在未來建立一家更強大的公司。我期待與你們中的許多人討論一月份的第四季度業績，在那之前，請注意安全。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連線。