美國鋁公司 (AA) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation First Quarter 2023 Earnings Presentation and Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎來到美鋁公司 2023 年第一季度收益演示和電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to James Dwyer, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議轉交給投資者關係副總裁 James Dwyer。請繼續。

Thank you, and good day, everyone. I'm joined today by Roy Harvey, Alcoa Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer; and Molly Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, We will take your questions after comments by Roy and Molly.

謝謝大家，祝大家有美好的一天。今天，美鋁公司總裁兼首席執行官羅伊·哈維 (Roy Harvey) 加入了我的行列；執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Molly Beerman，我們將在 Roy 和 Molly 發表評論後回答您的問題。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings. In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與受各種假設和警告約束的未來事件和預期相關的前瞻性陳述。可能導致公司實際結果與這些陳述存在重大差異的因素包含在今天的演示文稿和我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。此外，我們在本演示文稿中包含了一些非 GAAP 財務指標。與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務措施的調節可以在今天的報告的附錄中找到。在我們今天的討論中提到的任何 EBITDA 都是指調整後的 EBITDA。

Finally, as previously announced, the earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website.

最後，如前所述，收益發布和幻燈片演示可在我們的網站上獲取。

With that, here's Roy.

有了這個，這是羅伊。

Thanks, Jim, and thank you to everyone for joining our call. We are joined today by our new Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Molly Beerman. As you recall, she was appointed as CFO in February of this year. And though this is her first formal presentation of our quarterly financial results, she's no stranger to the process. She had been Alcoa's Principal Accounting Officer and Controller since 2016, and I'm pleased to have her as a member of my executive leadership team. Also, our former CFO, Bill Oplinger, is now Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, where he is working with our production leaders to reinforce a safe and stable operating environment and to drive continued improvement across all of our assets.

謝謝吉姆，感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。今天，我們的新任執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Molly Beerman 加入了我們的行列。您還記得，她於今年 2 月被任命為首席財務官。雖然這是她第一次正式介紹我們的季度財務業績，但她對這個過程並不陌生。自 2016 年以來，她一直擔任美鋁的首席會計官和財務總監，我很高興她成為我的執行領導團隊的一員。此外，我們的前任首席財務官 Bill Oplinger 現任執行副總裁兼首席運營官，他與我們的生產負責人合作，加強安全穩定的運營環境，並推動我們所有資產的持續改進。

Together, my executive leadership team is working with Alcoans around the globe to help advance our company's purpose and vision as outlined on the left of this slide. At Alcoa, we all work together to turn raw potential into real progress. The progress we make as a company matters. It matters for our investors, customers, employees and communities. And it matters for society. as the world will need more responsibly produced aluminum in the future. We constantly remind ourselves of the importance of our actions, whether in operations, in our offices or as we make corporate decisions.

我的執行領導團隊正在與全球各地的 Alcoans 合作，幫助推進本幻燈片左側概述的公司目標和願景。在美鋁，我們齊心協力將原始潛力轉化為真正的進步。作為一家公司，我們取得的進步很重要。這對我們的投資者、客戶、員工和社區都很重要。這對社會很重要。因為未來世界將需要更負責任地生產鋁。我們不斷提醒自己我們行動的重要性，無論是在運營中、在我們的辦公室還是在我們做出公司決策時。

Enfaced with a volatile market environment as well as continued challenges at some of our operations, we continue to focus on 3 strategic priorities: First, we work to reduce complexity, which means operating with a lean cost-focused approach and actively managing our portfolio of assets to drive profitability through all phases of the commodities cycle. Second, we strive to drive returns through margin-focused growth by a purposefully allocated capital and differentiated value-add products. That means consistently working to improve our commercial capabilities through quality, technical excellence and delivery performance.

面對動蕩的市場環境以及我們部分業務的持續挑戰，我們繼續專注於 3 個戰略重點：首先，我們努力降低複雜性，這意味著採用以成本為中心的精益方法運營並積極管理我們的產品組合資產以在商品週期的所有階段推動盈利能力。其次，我們通過有目的地分配資本和差異化增值產品，努力通過以利潤為中心的增長來推動回報。這意味著始終致力於通過質量、卓越技術和交付績效來提高我們的商業能力。

And our third priority is to advance sustainably, which means more than just championing environmental, social and governance processes. We also work to create value and maintain a strong balance sheet while developing breakthrough technologies that have the potential to decarbonize the aluminum value chain. In the first quarter, we saw sequential improvement across our key earnings metrics. Notably, we increased our adjusted EBITDA from the fourth quarter by more than $211 million, posting a result of $240 million.

我們的第三個優先事項是可持續發展，這不僅僅意味著支持環境、社會和治理流程。我們還致力於創造價值並保持穩健的資產負債表，同時開發有可能使鋁價值鏈脫碳的突破性技術。在第一季度，我們看到了關鍵盈利指標的連續改善。值得注意的是，與第四季度相比，我們將調整後的 EBITDA 增加了超過 2.11 億美元，結果為 2.4 億美元。

Molly will dive deeper into our financial results shortly. But first, I'd like to reiterate once again our continuing commitment to Alcoa's values and particularly, to safety. No matter where we operate, we strive to ensure that our employees, contractors and visitors remain safe at our locations. In the first quarter, we did not have any fatal or serious injuries. However, we continue to have near misses or potential incidents, which we closely monitor and use as opportunities to accelerate our learning. So we must, and we will continue to work on identifying and eliminating operational risks that could result in injuries to our employees. We hold ourselves accountable to continuously improve the safety of our work environment and to ensure that everyone arrives home safely.

莫莉將很快深入了解我們的財務業績。但首先，我想再次重申我們對美鋁價值觀的持續承諾，尤其是對安全的承諾。無論我們在哪裡運營，我們都努力確保我們的員工、承包商和訪客在我們的場所保持安全。在第一季度，我們沒有任何致命或重傷。然而，我們仍然有未遂事件或潛在事件，我們會密切監控這些事件並將其作為加速學習的機會。因此，我們必須並將繼續努力識別和消除可能導致員工受傷的運營風險。我們有責任不斷提高工作環境的安全性，並確保每個人都能安全到家。

Next, as you see on this slide, in the first quarter, we made adjustments to operating levels of some of our locations. We'll discuss more about that later in this call, including the agreement we successfully negotiated in Spain on the restart of our San Ciprián smelter and progressing the full restart of the Alumar smelter in Brazil. Finally, our commercial team recently introduced an expansion of our Sustana family of low-carbon products. Our EcoSource low-carbon alumina brand now includes non-metallurgical grades. This complements our existing smelter grade product also marketed under the EcoSource brand.

接下來，正如您在這張幻燈片上看到的那樣，在第一季度，我們對一些地點的運營水平進行了調整。我們將在本次電話會議的稍後部分討論更多相關內容，包括我們在西班牙就重啟 San Ciprián 冶煉廠成功談判達成的協議，以及推進巴西 Alumar 冶煉廠的全面重啟。最後，我們的商業團隊最近推出了 Sustana 系列低碳產品的擴展版。我們的 EcoSource 低碳氧化鋁品牌現在包括非冶金等級。這補充了我們現有的也以 EcoSource 品牌銷售的冶煉級產品。

So with those introductory remarks, let's go to the financials. Molly, please go ahead.

因此，通過這些介紹性評論，讓我們來看看財務狀況。莫莉，請繼續。

Thank you, Roy. We saw a broad improvement from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023. Realized prices were higher for both aluminum and alumina with aluminum up 7% and alumina up 8% sequentially, while revenues remained flat at $2.7 billion on lower shipments. Stable revenues and lower costs were reflected in an improved bottom line. The net loss per share attributable to Alcoa improved by $0.94 to $1.30, and the adjusted loss per share improved $0.59, moving from $0.82 to $0.23. Adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, also improved considerably, increasing from $29 million to $240 million.

謝謝你，羅伊。從 2022 年第四季度到 2023 年第一季度，我們看到了廣泛的改善。鋁和氧化鋁的實際價格均有所上漲，鋁分別上漲 7% 和氧化鋁上漲 8%，而由於出貨量下降，收入持平於 27 億美元。穩定的收入和較低的成本反映在改善的底線中。歸屬於美鋁的每股淨虧損改善 0.94 美元至 1.30 美元，調整後每股虧損改善 0.59 美元，從 0.82 美元降至 0.23 美元。調整後的 EBITDA（不包括特殊項目）也有顯著改善，從 2900 萬美元增加到 2.4 億美元。

Let's look more closely at the key drivers of adjusted EBITDA. The $211 million increase in adjusted EBITDA was propelled by improvement across most of the bridge. While we saw unfavorable currency impacts due to a weaker dollar, Higher metal and alumina prices provided $148 million or 70% of the sequential quarterly improvement. The remainder came from several items: Lower energy costs in the first quarter '23 and the absence of CO2 costs realized in the fourth quarter of '22, primarily in Norway.

讓我們更仔細地看看調整後 EBITDA 的主要驅動因素。調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 2.11 億美元，這是由於大部分橋樑的改善推動的。雖然我們看到美元疲軟對貨幣產生不利影響，但金屬和氧化鋁價格上漲帶來了 1.48 億美元，佔連續季度改善的 70%。其餘部分來自幾個項目：23 年第一季度的能源成本降低以及 22 年第四季度主要在挪威實現的二氧化碳成本的減少。

Price mix was favorable due to improved value-add pricing in Europe, especially rod as well as higher third-party bauxite prices. And the other category was favorable due to the non-recurrence of the Alumar ARO adjustment made last quarter and lower spending outside the segments especially in transformation. Other than foreign currency, the only unfavorable performance was higher production costs due to 2 locations, the Alumar refinery and the Portland smelter. This is the first quarter the Bauxite and Alumina segments have been combined into the Alumina segment. To help with comparisons, we have provided the previously reported 2022 quarterly segment adjusted EBITDA recast into the new alumina segment within the appendix.

由於歐洲增值定價的改善，尤其是桿材以及更高的第三方鋁土礦價格，價格組合有利。另一個類別是有利的，因為上個季度的 Alumar ARO 調整沒有再次發生，並且該部門以外的支出減少，特別是在轉型方面。除了外匯外，唯一不利的表現是由於 2 個地點（Alumar 精煉廠和波特蘭冶煉廠）導致的生產成本較高。這是鋁土礦和氧化鋁部門合併到氧化鋁部門的第一季度。為了幫助進行比較，我們在附錄中提供了先前報告的 2022 年季度調整後的 EBITDA 重鑄到新的氧化鋁部門。

Looking from fourth quarter '22 to first quarter '23 on a comparable basis, the Alumina segment adjusted EBITDA more than doubled on stronger API pricing and product mix, partially offset by higher costs, both production and raw materials. Currency was unfavorable in both segments. For the aluminum segment, outside the currency impact, higher metal prices, lower alumina costs and lower energy costs hit the bottom line, while stronger value-add pricing, combined with lower raw material costs completely offset other unfavorable costs.

從可比的基礎上看，從 22 年第四季度到 23 年第一季度，氧化鋁部門調整後的 EBITDA 增加了一倍多，原因是 API 定價和產品組合更強勁，部分被生產和原材料成本增加所抵消。貨幣對這兩個部分都是不利的。對於鋁行業，在貨幣影響之外，更高的金屬價格、更低的氧化鋁成本和更低的能源成本觸及底線，而更強的增值定價，加上更低的原材料成本完全抵消了其他不利成本。

Now let's turn to other financial metrics and cash flow. While sequentially higher adjusted EBITDA increased cash flow potential, our typical first quarter working capital build offset those gains. $216 million of increased working capital was the largest use of funds in the quarter and a key driver of negative $166 million free cash flow, less net NCI distribution. We expect the 56 days of working capital to reduce as the year progresses. Cash ended the period at $1.1 billion and proportional adjusted net debt rose to $1.4 billion. We again paid our $0.10 per share dividend in the first quarter, totaling $18 million.

現在讓我們轉向其他財務指標和現金流。雖然連續較高的調整後 EBITDA 增加了現金流潛力，但我們典型的第一季度營運資本建設抵消了這些收益。增加的 2.16 億美元營運資金是本季度最大的資金使用，也是導致負 1.66 億美元自由現金流（減去 NCI 淨分配）的主要驅動因素。我們預計 56 天的營運資金會隨著時間的推移而減少。期末現金為 11 億美元，按比例調整後的淨債務增至 14 億美元。我們在第一季度再次支付了每股 0.10 美元的股息，總計 1800 萬美元。

For a little more granularity on working capital and cash flow, let's look at raw materials and inventory. Given the significance of raw materials and the value of our inventory, they are a key driver of both profitability and cash flows. Three materials are dominant in our business. Caustic for our Alumina segment, petroleum coke and coal tar pitch for our Aluminum segment. Looking at market index prices for the past year, all 3 commodities are coming off their peaks.

為了更詳細地了解營運資金和現金流，讓我們看看原材料和庫存。鑑於原材料的重要性和我們庫存的價值，它們是盈利能力和現金流的關鍵驅動因素。三種材料在我們的業務中占主導地位。我們的氧化鋁部門使用苛性鹼，我們的鋁部門使用石油焦和煤焦油瀝青。縱觀過去一年的市場指數價格，所有 3 種商品均已從高位回落。

We are seeing considerable recent improvement in caustic prices as well as more gradual improvements in quoted prices for coke and pitch. These price improvements flow into our inventory valuation and as we previously shared, it can take 1 or 2 quarters before the purchase price improvement starts to flow through COGS and hit the income and cash flow statements. That said, should these raw material price trends continue, we expect to be rewarded with lower inventory valuations, lower COGS related to raw materials and improved cash flow.

我們看到近期苛性鹼價格大幅改善，焦炭和瀝青的報價也逐步改善。這些價格改善流入我們的庫存估值，正如我們之前分享的那樣，購買價格改善可能需要 1 或 2 個季度才能開始通過 COGS 流動並影響收入和現金流量表。也就是說，如果這些原材料價格趨勢繼續下去，我們預計將獲得更低的庫存估值、更低的與原材料相關的銷貨成本以及改善的現金流。

Now let's turn to our expectations for the year and provide comments on the second quarter. At this point, we are not making updates to our full year outlook for either the income statement or cash flow items. Regarding sequential changes for the second quarter. In the Alumina segment, we expect an approximately $55 million unfavorable impact from lower bauxite grades in Australia. In addition, we expect a net unfavorable impact of $10 million as higher seasonal maintenance, volume and impacts associated with the Alumar conveyor system recovery are partially offset by improvements in raw materials and energy.

現在讓我們談談我們對今年的預期，並對第二季度發表評論。在這一點上，我們不會更新損益表或現金流量項目的全年展望。關於第二季度的連續變化。在氧化鋁領域，我們預計澳大利亞較低品位的鋁土礦將產生約 5500 萬美元的不利影響。此外，我們預計淨不利影響為 1000 萬美元，因為與 Alumar 輸送機系統恢復相關的季節性維護、數量和影響會部分被原材料和能源的改善所抵消。

In the Aluminum segment, we expect a net improvement of $30 million as favorable raw materials, volume and lower production costs are only partially offset by changes in value-add premiums. In addition, we expect $5 million to $10 million in unfavorable impacts associated with the Portland partial curtailment. Finally, we expect alumina cost in the Aluminum segment to be unfavorable by $15 million.

在鋁部門，我們預計淨增長 3000 萬美元，因為有利的原材料、產量和較低的生產成本僅被增值溢價的變化部分抵消。此外，我們預計與波特蘭部分限電相關的不利影響將達到 500 萬至 1000 萬美元。最後，我們預計鋁部門的氧化鋁成本將不利 1500 萬美元。

Below the EBITDA line, other expense is expected to be approximately $30 million favorable primarily due to the absence of a onetime charge taken in the first quarter. Based on recent pricing, the company expects second quarter '23 operational tax expense to approximate $30 million to $40 million.

在 EBITDA 線以下，其他費用預計約為 3000 萬美元，這主要是由於第一季度沒有一次性費用。根據最近的定價，公司預計 23 年第二季度的營業稅支出約為 3000 萬至 4000 萬美元。

Now I will turn it back to Roy.

現在我會把它轉回給羅伊。

Thanks, Molly. I'd like to start with what we're seeing in the global alumina and aluminum markets. Then I'll highlight some potential implications and a few commercial developments specific to Alcoa. At a macro level, the global alumina and aluminum markets both remain in balance. In China, however, there are slight deficits for both products. Meanwhile, the regional markets in the rest of the world are in a slight surplus for both alumina and aluminum. For the long term, we continue to believe that aluminum demand will rise significantly, driven by global decarbonization strategies.

謝謝，莫莉。我想從我們在全球氧化鋁和鋁市場上看到的情況開始。然後我將強調一些潛在的影響和一些特定於美鋁的商業發展。宏觀層面，全球氧化鋁和電解鋁市場均保持平衡。然而，在中國，這兩種產品都存在輕微的逆差。與此同時，世界其他地區的區域市場氧化鋁和鋁略有過剩。從長遠來看，我們仍然認為，在全球脫碳戰略的推動下，鋁需求將大幅上升。

The International Aluminum Institute for example, is forecasting global aluminum demand to increase up to 80% by 2050 from a baseline of 2018, and that will require both new primary and secondary capacity. This year, global inventories of aluminum are expected to be at historic lows. With such low inventories, if demand normalizes in China or the rest of the world, those supplies will be insufficient.

例如，國際鋁業協會預測到 2050 年全球鋁需求將比 2018 年的基線增加 80%，這將需要新的初級和次級產能。今年，全球鋁庫存預計將處於歷史低位。由於庫存如此之低，如果中國或世界其他地區的需求恢復正常，這些供應將不足。

Now moving to the right hand of this slide. You'll see some recent aluminum supply changes in the first quarter of this year. On the supply side, we saw more curtailments than restarts. While power costs have eased in some places outside of China, it was not enough to support significant restarts. Meanwhile, in China, the supply situation could potentially move the world market into a deficit. There have already been curtailments of approximately 1 million metric tons in 2 key regions, and the restart of curtailed capacity in Yunnan is heavily dependent on hydroelectricity, which is seeing supply shortages.

現在移至這張幻燈片的右側。您會在今年第一季度看到最近的一些鋁供應變化。在供應方面，我們看到的削減多於重啟。儘管中國以外的一些地方的電力成本有所下降，但這不足以支持大規模重啟。同時，在中國，供應情況可能會使世界市場出現短缺。 2個重點地區已實現約100萬噸限電，雲南限電產能重啟嚴重依賴水電，水電供應緊張。

The smelters operating in that province are producing below capacity and analysts have noted that they may be asked to further reduce output and/or switch to coal generated power. In key end markets for aluminum, we see automotive production continuing to strengthen, which is supportive of the demand for flat rolled products. The market for construction products remains challenging given high interest rates. Foundry, slab and rod markets remained strong, while billet demand is soft in Europe and North America.

該省的冶煉廠產能不足，分析師指出，他們可能會被要求進一步減少產量和/或改用煤電。在鋁的主要終端市場，我們看到汽車生產繼續走強，這支持了對扁平軋材的需求。鑑於高利率，建築產品市場仍然充滿挑戰。鑄造、板坯和棒材市場依然強勁，而歐洲和北美的方坯需求疲軟。

Next, regarding the production and warehousing of Russian metal. In February, the U.S. government placed a 200% tariff on Russian metal imports. The U.S. has taken a strong first move with these tariffs that were implemented as a punitive measure for the country's invasion of Ukraine. The government is also tracing Russian origin metal in various imported products. However, we believe there is more that can be done. While many rest of world smelters remain curtailed, Russian smelters continue to produce at full capacity.(technical difficulty) Thus, we continue to advocate with our governments for full sanctions on Russian origin aluminum.

其次，關於俄羅斯金屬的生產和倉儲。 2 月，美國政府對俄羅斯金屬進口徵收 200% 的關稅。美國採取了這些關稅的強有力的第一步，這些關稅是作為對該國入侵烏克蘭的懲罰措施而實施的。政府還在各種進口產品中追踪俄羅斯原產金屬。然而，我們相信還有更多的事情可以做。儘管世界上許多其他冶煉廠仍處於減產狀態，但俄羅斯冶煉廠繼續滿負荷生產。（技術困難）因此，我們繼續倡導我們的政府對俄羅斯原產鋁實施全面製裁。

As many aluminum customers self sanction against Russian metal, unwanted Russian tons are being stockpiled in London Metal Exchange warehouses and are threatening to undermine the reliability of the LME as a global pricing reference for aluminum. As you may recall, Alcoa warned that the LME aluminum contract was at risk of becoming dislocated from the physical market as LME warehouses would eventually receive a disproportionate amount of unwanted Russian stocks.

由於許多鋁客戶對俄羅斯金屬進行自我制裁，不想要的俄羅斯噸被儲存在倫敦金屬交易所的倉庫中，並有可能破壞 LME 作為全球鋁定價參考的可靠性。您可能還記得，美國鋁業公司警告說，LME 鋁合約有可能脫離實物市場，因為 LME 倉庫最終會收到不成比例的俄羅斯庫存。

The data should prompt concern. As of the end of March, Russian stocks and LME warehouses increased to 53% of the total inventories, that compares to approximately 5% of the total prior to the invasion of Ukraine. We expect that further stockpiling of Russian material will occur throughout the year and into the future. If this trend continues, the LME's aluminum price reference will be relegated to a price for unwanted warehouse Russian aluminum, which much of the world refuses to purchase or consume. Given these developments, we continue to advocate with our host governments to apply full sanctions on Russian origin aluminum, and we are strongly urging the LME that Russian metal be delisted as a deliverable brand.

數據應引起關注。截至 3 月底，俄羅斯庫存和 LME 倉庫增加到總庫存的 53%，而在入侵烏克蘭之前這一比例約為 5%。我們預計全年和未來將進一步儲存俄羅斯材料。如果這種趨勢持續下去，LME 的鋁價參考將降級為不需要的俄羅斯倉庫鋁的價格，而世界上大部分地區都拒絕購買或消費這種鋁。鑑於這些事態發展，我們繼續倡導我們的東道國政府對俄羅斯原產鋁實施全面製裁，我們強烈敦促 LME 將俄羅斯金屬從可交付品牌中除名。

Now let's turn to our own commercial developments. We have already seen some increased volumes and new contracts as customers continue to look for alternatives to Russian supply of material. Within Europe, several large customers require guarantees that no Russian aluminum exists within their suppliers' materials as it could result in substantial tariffs should their products be exported to the United States.

現在讓我們轉向我們自己的商業發展。隨著客戶繼續尋找俄羅斯材料供應的替代品，我們已經看到一些增加的數量和新合同。在歐洲，一些大客戶要求保證其供應商的材料中不存在俄羅斯鋁，因為如果他們的產品出口到美國，這可能會導致高額關稅。

Finally, I want to highlight the news about our Sustana family of low-carbon products comprised of EcoSource alumina, EcoLum aluminum and EcoDura aluminum with recycled content. Last year, we saw nearly a fivefold increase in sales volumes for EcoLum, which is manufactured with an emissions intensity that is 3x better than the industry average. We offer it in a range of products, including billets, foundry, slab, wire rod, an alloy high purity and commodity-grade P1020. While these annual volumes are still a small portion of our overall sales volume, we're building on last year's good growth with an expected addition of 30% in increased sales this year, particularly in Europe.

最後，我想強調一下我們的 Sustana 系列低碳產品的消息，這些產品由 EcoSource 氧化鋁、EcoLum 鋁和 EcoDura 鋁組成，含有回收成分。去年，我們看到 EcoLum 的銷量增長了近五倍，EcoLum 的製造排放強度比行業平均水平高 3 倍。我們在一系列產品中提供它，包括鋼坯、鑄造、板坯、線材、合金高純度和商品級 P1020。雖然這些年度銷量仍然只占我們總銷量的一小部分，但我們正在鞏固去年的良好增長，預計今年的銷量將增長 30%，尤其是在歐洲。

We expect this trend to continue with more customers committing to aggressive decarbonization targets. And as I mentioned at the top of our call, we also expanded our EcoSource product line to now include non-metallurgical alumina or NMA as well as the smelter-grade product we launched in 2020. These EcoSource products are unique across our industry and are unmatched by our competitors. The expansion of our EcoSource brand helps leverage our advantages as a producer of SGA and NMA with a low carbon dioxide intensity. Our EcoSource product has its greenhouse gas calculations verified by a third party, and we can deliver from a global refinery portfolio that has an average emissions intensity that is half the industry average.

我們預計隨著更多客戶致力於實現積極的脫碳目標，這一趨勢將繼續下去。正如我在電話會議開頭提到的，我們還擴展了 EcoSource 產品線，現在包括非冶金氧化鋁或 NMA 以及我們在 2020 年推出的冶煉級產品。這些 EcoSource 產品在我們的行業中是獨一無二的，並且是我們的競爭對手無法比擬的。我們 EcoSource 品牌的擴張有助於發揮我們作為低二氧化碳強度 SGA 和 NMA 生產商的優勢。我們的 EcoSource 產品的溫室氣體計算已由第三方驗證，我們可以從平均排放強度為行業平均水平一半的全球煉油廠組合中交付產品。

Now I'd like to turn our attention to our operations. We made several reductions of capacity in the quarter as we've ramped up production in others. Our Canadian facilities include 3 smelters that we operate in Quebec, Dechambault, Bécancour and Baie Comeau, all are powered by hydroelectricity, and together, they are currently operating at near peak levels. In the United States, we have improved operational stability at our Warrick smelter for the 2 operating pot lines. Also in the United States, we made the strategic decision in March to permanently close the Intalco smelter after evaluating various options for the asset, including a potential sale.

現在我想把注意力轉移到我們的運營上。我們在本季度多次削減產能，因為我們提高了其他產能。我們在加拿大的設施包括我們在魁北克、Dechambault、Bécancour 和 Baie Comeau 運營的 3 家冶煉廠，所有冶煉廠均由水力發電提供動力，目前它們的運行接近峰值水平。在美國，我們提高了 Warrick 冶煉廠 2 條運行中的電解槽生產線的運行穩定性。同樣在美國，我們在評估資產的各種選擇（包括潛在出售）後，於 3 月做出了永久關閉 Intalco 冶煉廠的戰略決定。

It had been fully idle since 2020 and the land of that site has now transferred to a new owner, who is working on economic development opportunities. Our transformation group, which manages curtailed and closed sites, has done a good job to position this site for new productive uses. In Brazil, we are continuing with the restart of the Alumar smelter, which is now producing at approximately 60% of capacity and continues to accelerate production. Alumar also includes a co-located alumina refinery.

自 2020 年以來，它一直處於閒置狀態，該地點的土地現已轉讓給新的所有者，他正在尋找經濟發展機會。我們的轉型小組負責管理縮減和關閉的站點，在將此站點定位為新的生產用途方面做得很好。在巴西，我們正在繼續重啟 Alumar 冶煉廠，該冶煉廠目前的產能約為 60%，並繼續加速生產。 Alumar 還包括位於同一地點的氧化鋁精煉廠。

On March 25th, a Ship to Shore conveyance system collapsed temporarily halting the flow of bauxite to the refinery. While investigating the failure to root cause, our teams safely executed critical repairs to restore the flow, thus enabling the refinery to continue to operate. These repairs were important in time-sensitive activities and the teams did a great job completing them safely and swiftly. Now that bauxite is again being delivered to the refinery. We are building back the on-site inventory and gradually ramping up production. Our expectation is to reach full production levels by the end of this month. We have continued to make all customer shipments of alumina from the refinery through this period.

3 月 25 日，船對岸運輸系統崩潰，暫時停止了鋁土礦向精煉廠的流動。在調查故障的根本原因時，我們的團隊安全地執行了關鍵維修以恢復流量，從而使煉油廠能夠繼續運營。這些維修在時間緊迫的活動中非常重要，團隊在安全迅速地完成這些工作方面做得非常出色。現在，鋁土礦又被運往精煉廠。我們正在重建現場庫存並逐步提高產量。我們的預期是到本月底達到滿負荷生產水平。在此期間，我們繼續從精煉廠向客戶運送所有氧化鋁。

Now moving to Europe and our San Ciprián complex, which includes our refinery and the fully curtailed smelter. At the refinery, we reduced the production rate last year to help mitigate the high cost of natural gas in Spain. We are now operating at approximately 50% of the refinery's 1.6 million tons of annual capacity and continue to analyze the most advantageous run rate given market conditions. For the San Ciprián smelter, in February, we successfully reached an agreement with the workers' representatives to commence the restart process in phases beginning in January 2024.

現在轉移到歐洲和我們的 San Ciprián 綜合設施，其中包括我們的煉油廠和完全削減的冶煉廠。在煉油廠，我們去年降低了生產率，以幫助緩解西班牙天然氣的高成本。我們現在以煉油廠 160 萬噸年產能的大約 50% 的速度運行，並繼續分析給定市場條件下最有利的運行率。對於 San Ciprián 冶煉廠，我們在 2 月成功地與工人代表達成協議，從 2024 年 1 月開始分階段重啟進程。

We currently have 2 long-term wind sourced power purchase agreement that can support a portion of the smelters needs, pending permitting, development and construction of the wind farms. As part of our agreement with the workforce, we are also moving forward with capital projects that will help support this restart and the future competitiveness of this facility. In Norway, we continue to operate 2 of the 3 potlines at the Lista smelter. You will recall 1 line was curtailed last year due to exorbitant spot energy prices. We have now fixed our energy costs for Lista's 2 potlines through 2023, which provides short-term stability during highly volatile energy markets. Meanwhile, our other Norwegian smelter, Mosjøen, is operating stably and near full pot complement as is our Fjardaál facility in Iceland.

我們目前有 2 份長期風力發電採購協議，可以支持部分冶煉廠的需求，等待許可，開發和建設風電場。作為我們與員工達成的協議的一部分，我們還將推進有助於支持此次重啟和該設施未來競爭力的資本項目。在挪威，我們繼續運營 Lista 冶煉廠 3 條電解槽線中的 2 條。您會記得去年由於現貨能源價格過高而削減了 1 條線路。我們現在已經將 Lista 的 2 條電解槽線的能源成本固定到 2023 年，這在高度波動的能源市場中提供了短期穩定性。與此同時，我們在挪威的另一家冶煉廠 Mosjøen 和我們在冰島的 Fjardaál 工廠一樣，正在穩定運營，接近滿罐。

Finally, on this slide, let's discuss Australia. In March, the Portland aluminum joint venture reduced its production to approximately 75% of its total annual capacity. Alcoa's share of the capacity is 197,000 metric tons per year. We have restored stability at this site, which had experienced challenges related to the production of roded anodes. At our Kwinana refinery, we made the decision to keep 1 of 5 digesters curtailed. It was first curtailed due to a statewide shortage of natural gas. Given an extended process for our mine approvals in Western Australia, we have decided to keep this digester curtailed. Delays in our bauxite mine approvals process in Western Australia has also prompted us to extend mining in previously approved areas by extracting lower-grade bauxite beginning in the second quarter of this year. As we commented during last quarter's earnings presentation.

最後，在這張幻燈片上，讓我們討論一下澳大利亞。 3 月，波特蘭鋁業合資企業將其產量減少至其年總產能的約 75%。美鋁的產能份額為每年 197,000 公噸。我們已經恢復了該站點的穩定性，該站點曾經歷過與桿狀陽極生產相關的挑戰。在我們的 Kwinana 煉油廠，我們決定縮減 5 個蒸煮器中的 1 個。由於全州天然氣短缺，它首先被削減。鑑於我們在西澳大利亞的礦山審批流程延長，我們決定縮減該沼氣池。我們在西澳大利亞的鋁土礦批准程序的延遲也促使我們從今年第二季度開始通過提取低品位鋁土礦來擴大先前批准區域的開採。正如我們在上一季度的收益報告中所評論的那樣。

Next, I'd like to talk a little more about our approach to responsible mining globally and particularly about our bauxite mining operations in Western Australia, a region where we have operated for 60 years. First, I want to stress that we appreciate and understand the increasing expectations that stakeholders have for mining operations. Sustainability has been core to our focus at Alcoa, and it's one overriding priority that helps differentiate our company. In fact, it's why we have the strategic priority to advance sustainably. We believe that delivering on our stakeholders' expectations is a key to our success moving forward.

接下來，我想多談談我們在全球範圍內開展負責任採礦的方法，尤其是我們在西澳大利亞開展的鋁土礦開採業務，我們已經在該地區運營了 60 年。首先，我想強調，我們讚賞並理解利益相關者對採礦業務的期望越來越高。可持續發展一直是我們 Alcoa 關注的核心，也是幫助我們公司脫穎而出的首要任務。事實上，這就是我們將可持續發展作為戰略重點的原因。我們相信，實現利益相關者的期望是我們取得成功的關鍵。

We strive to maintain our commitment to safe and responsible operations, including proactive engagement with our communities before, during and after bauxite mining. We also know the world is evolving, and we are committed to continually improving our practices and meeting modernized expectations. As we work to address evolving challenges facing the mining industry, we cannot lose sight of how important aluminum is now and will be in the future. It's a fact that aluminum is critical to a more sustainable future because it's used in electric vehicles, renewable energy and numerous other aluminum-intensive products that can help the world meet ambitious decarbonization goals.

我們努力保持對安全和負責任運營的承諾，包括在鋁土礦開采之前、期間和之後與我們的社區積極互動。我們也知道世界在不斷發展，我們致力於不斷改進我們的做法並滿足現代化的期望。在我們努力應對採礦業面臨的不斷變化的挑戰時，我們不能忽視鋁現在和將來的重要性。事實上，鋁對於更可持續的未來至關重要，因為它被用於電動汽車、可再生能源和許多其他鋁密集型產品，可以幫助世界實現雄心勃勃的脫碳目標。

Producing the aluminum that the world needs now and for the future will require bauxite mining, but mining must be done the right way. We intend to mine in a responsible way that protects the environment and create value for our host communities, and we are focused on delivering on those expectations and implementing improvements whenever they are needed. Currently, we have 2 significant areas of attention for our Western Australian mines, Huntley and Willowdale. The first is the protection of public drinking water and the second is the restoration of the forest and its biodiversity.

生產世界現在和未來需要的鋁將需要開採鋁土礦，但必須以正確的方式進行開採。我們打算以負責任的方式進行開採，以保護環境並為我們所在的社區創造價值，並且我們專注於實現這些期望並在需要時實施改進。目前，我們對西澳大利亞的礦山 Huntley 和 Willowdale 有 2 個重要的關注領域。首先是保護公共飲用水，其次是恢復森林及其生物多樣性。

In our long history of operations, we have never negatively impaired the supply of drinking water in Western Australia, and we do not intend to compromise that record. That's why we are currently working through a detailed environmental, technical and economic assessment on additional protection measures that can be included in our mining plans. We also are committed to protecting the biodiversity of the Northern Jarrah forest. We have long taken pride in our rehabilitation efforts. Among our many successes was to be the first mining company in Australia to officially hand back a significant area of rehabilitated land, and we are one of the few mining companies in Western Australia to have ever done this.

在我們長期的運營歷史中，我們從未對西澳大利亞的飲用水供應造成負面影響，我們也不打算破壞這一記錄。這就是為什麼我們目前正在對可以包含在我們的採礦計劃中的額外保護措施進行詳細的環境、技術和經濟評估。我們還致力於保護 Northern Jarrah 森林的生物多樣性。長期以來，我們一直為我們的康復工作感到自豪。我們取得的眾多成就之一是成為澳大利亞第一家正式交還大面積復墾土地的礦業公司，我們是西澳大利亞少數幾家曾經這樣做過的礦業公司之一。

Today, about 75% of all areas we have cleared for mining have been rehabilitated and are at different growth stages from early plantings to developed forest. But again, we intend to continue to evolve and improve including accelerating rehabilitation in open areas. Protecting water supplies and restoration are focal point as we cooperatively work with government regulators on modernizing our approval's framework for our Huntley and Willowdale mines. We are also considering how we can reduce potential social impacts through this process.

今天，在我們為採礦而清理的所有區域中，約有 75% 已經恢復，並且處於從早期種植到發達森林的不同生長階段。但同樣，我們打算繼續發展和改進，包括加速開放地區的康復。保護供水和恢復是重點，因為我們與政府監管機構合作，對 Huntley 和 Willowdale 礦山的審批框架進行現代化改造。我們也在考慮如何通過這一過程減少潛在的社會影響。

Now let me spend a few minutes explaining our current situation with mine permitting. The Huntly and Willowdale mines are currently subject to a bespoke approvals process that is conducted annually on a 5-year rolling basis. As we said last quarter, this process is taking longer than in prior iterations due to increased expectations towards a modernized approvals framework. In response to these delays, we are extending mining in areas already permitted under existing approvals. That means mining bauxite with a lower quality or grade using more caustic and producing less alumina. Also, during the first quarter of this year, a third party referred our current and future mine plans for Huntly and Willowdale to the Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority for assessment.

現在讓我花幾分鐘在我允許的情況下解釋我們目前的情況。 Huntly 和 Willowdale 礦山目前接受定制的審批程序，該程序每年進行一次，每 5 年滾動一次。正如我們上個季度所說，由於對現代化審批框架的期望增加，此過程比之前的迭代花費的時間更長。為了應對這些延誤，我們正在擴大現有批准已經允許的區域的採礦。這意味著使用更多的苛性鹼開採質量或品位較低的鋁土礦，並生產較少的氧化鋁。此外，在今年第一季度，第三方將我們目前和未來的 Huntly 和 Willowdale 礦山計劃提交給西澳大利亞環境保護局進行評估。

The third-party referral will likely result in further delays with bauxite grade impacts expected to continue until at least the first quarter of 2024. Remember that it requires considerable planning and development to reach new bauxite areas, which we have included in this projection of future bauxite trades. It's important to note here that prior to these referrals, we had proactively initiated our own EPA assessment process for the extension of our operations to the future Mayara North and the Holyoake regions of the Huntly mine.

第三方推薦可能會導致進一步延遲，鋁土礦品位影響預計至少會持續到 2024 年第一季度。請記住，需要大量規劃和開發才能到達新的鋁土礦區，我們已將其包含在未來預測中鋁土礦貿易。在此需要注意的是，在這些轉介之前，我們已經主動啟動了我們自己的 EPA 評估流程，以便將我們的業務擴展到未來的 Mayara North 和 Huntly 礦的 Holyoake 地區。

This process is commonly known in the state of Western Australia as an EPA Part IV assessment. As we transition to this process for future regions, we believe the current statutory process for Huntly and Willowdale can be adapted to provide enhanced environmental protections and be successfully applied to our current mining operations. As noted, we continue to work with relevant government bodies to support these annual approvals processes. We are also responding to requests for information from the state EPA to support the authority's consideration of whether the third-party referrals are valid and require assessment.

此過程在西澳大利亞州通常稱為 EPA Part IV 評估。隨著我們為未來地區過渡到這一流程，我們相信 Huntly 和 Willowdale 的當前法定程序可以進行調整以提供增強的環境保護並成功應用於我們當前的採礦作業。如前所述，我們將繼續與相關政府機構合作，以支持這些年度審批流程。我們還回應了州 EPA 的信息請求，以支持當局考慮第三方推薦是否有效並需要評估。

This is a complex and evolving situation, and we are fully committed to reaching a collaborative agreement with the Western Australian government to protect the environment, meet stakeholder expectations and maintain the vital economic benefits that our operations provide.

這是一個複雜且不斷變化的情況，我們完全致力於與西澳大利亞州政府達成合作協議，以保護環境、滿足利益相關者的期望並保持我們的運營提供的重要經濟利益。

In closing, I want to quickly summarize 3 key elements from our presentation today. First, we saw improvement in our key earnings metrics during the first quarter. We grew our EBITDA to $240 million, and we also maintained a strong balance sheet with $1.1 billion in cash and low proportional adjusted net debt. We continue to drive for improvement in our financials and our operations. While we have challenges that we need to solve, we are laser-focused on operational stability and consistent improvement, and we are seeing progress.

最後，我想快速總結一下我們今天的演講中的 3 個關鍵要素。首先，我們看到第一季度的關鍵盈利指標有所改善。我們的 EBITDA 增長到 2.4 億美元，我們還保持著強勁的資產負債表，擁有 11 億美元的現金和低比例的調整後淨債務。我們繼續努力改善我們的財務和運營。雖然我們面臨著需要解決的挑戰，但我們非常專注於運營穩定性和持續改進，並且我們正在取得進展。

From a leadership perspective, we help set the priorities in the direction, but our teams on the ground turn it into reality. They make it work by what they do every minute, every shift and every day. I'm proud of the more than 13,000 employees we have across the globe and their commitment to continuously improve. I look forward to continuing to report on these improvements as the year progresses.

從領導的角度來看，我們幫助確定方向的優先級，但我們的實地團隊將其變為現實。他們通過每分鐘、每班和每一天所做的事情來使其發揮作用。我為我們在全球擁有的 13,000 多名員工以及他們不斷改進的承諾感到自豪。隨著時間的推移，我期待著繼續報告這些改進。

Finally, the long-term fundamentals of our industry remain strong. Demand for our metal is expected to grow in the future as customers seek lower carbon raw materials across the supply chain. Aluminum is lightweight, strong, highly conducted and recyclable, making it ideally suited for a wide range of applications, including electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure. We are working to deliver more sustainable solutions through technologies we have under development to decarbonize aluminum production and advanced recycling technologies in support of our vision to reinvent the aluminum industry for a sustainable future.

最後，我們行業的長期基本面依然強勁。隨著客戶在整個供應鏈中尋求低碳原材料，預計未來對我們金屬的需求將會增長。鋁重量輕、強度高、導電性好且可回收，使其非常適合廣泛的應用，包括電動汽車和可再生能源基礎設施。我們正在努力通過我們正在開發的技術來提供更可持續的解決方案，以實現鋁生產脫碳和先進的回收技術，以支持我們重塑鋁行業以實現可持續未來的願景。

And with that, Molly and I are ready to accept your questions. Operator, who do we have in the line for our first question today.

有了這個，莫莉和我準備好接受你的問題了。接線員，我們今天的第一個問題有誰在排隊。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question comes from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Vertical Research 的 Michael Dudas。

First question is your observations on rest of the world capacity and the lack of restarts, even though energy power prices have corrected downwards somewhat, is the demand outlook and the energy outlook and uncertainty given geopolitics, even if prices stay low, will it still make it more difficult for capacity restarts in the marketing in your view?

第一個問題是您對世界其他地區產能和重啟缺乏的觀察，即使能源電力價格已經有所下調，但考慮到地緣政治的需求前景和能源前景以及不確定性，即使價格保持低位，它是否仍會在您看來，營銷中的產能重啟難度更大？

Yes, Michael, let me handle that one. So first and foremost, what I'd say is that we have seen pricing come down and particularly in Europe. So it is significantly better, but still significantly higher priced than it was prior to the invasion in Ukraine. And so we're seeing relief, but it still isn't in my perspective, enough relief really to drive a fundamental shift in the ability to smelt aluminum in Europe. The second side of it on the demand side, realistically speaking, I think the demand is still there. And particularly as you look at a number of companies essentially putting in their own set of sanctions against Russian metal, it means that we've got more interest in our volumes coming out of Europe.

是的，邁克爾，讓我來處理那個。所以首先，我要說的是我們已經看到價格下降，尤其是在歐洲。所以它比入侵烏克蘭之前要好得多，但價格仍然高得多。因此，我們看到了緩解，但在我看來，這仍然不是真正足以推動歐洲冶煉鋁的能力發生根本性轉變的緩解。它的第二個方面是需求方面，現實地說，我認為需求仍然存在。特別是當你看到許多公司基本上對俄羅斯金屬實施了自己的一套制裁時，這意味著我們對來自歐洲的產量更感興趣。

And so there's demand available. It's just that the margins are pretty tight. So when you take the fact that across the aluminum industry margins are tight because costs are still high. They are coming down. So when we look out these next quarters, we're going to continue to see raw materials relief. Margins are still thin. So when energy prices are high and the average margins are thin from around the world, it's just not justifying or incentivizing significant restarts.

所以有可用的需求。只是利潤率非常低。因此，當你考慮到整個鋁行業的利潤率都很低的事實時，因為成本仍然很高。他們下來了。因此，當我們展望下幾個季度時，我們將繼續看到原材料的緩解。利潤率仍然很低。因此，當能源價格居高不下且全球平均利潤微薄時，就不能證明或鼓勵大規模重啟。

That's some observation. And my follow-up would be in giving your prepared remarks relative to China of having deficits or slight deficit of alumina and aluminum. Can you just check some of the dynamics in the alumina market are actually in both markets where is there a propensity for one to be a little bit more closer to balance or oversupplied or vice versa, given some of the power challenges or some of the demand challenges you're seeing on the (inaudible)?

這是一些觀察。我的後續行動是就中國存在氧化鋁和鋁的赤字或輕微赤字發表你準備好的評論。你能不能檢查一下氧化鋁市場的一些動態實際上在這兩個市場中是否存在一個更接近平衡或供應過剩或反之亦然的傾向，考慮到一些電力挑戰或一些需求您在（聽不清）上看到的挑戰？

Yes, Michael, I think the -- it's a really good question. And I think the answer has got to be that both markets are thinly balanced and could move an eye of the direction, right? You look at aluminum, for example, in China, really good, strong demand increase. But on the supply side, there's just not enough power in the Southwestern provinces. And so we're seeing the likelihood for more further curtailments, which means it drives them into an even bigger deficit, which then ends up with a deficit in the whole world as an example. On the alumina side, it's not necessarily a different perspective, right? In Europe, it's -- with natural gas prices, again, they're better than they were, but they're still significantly increased from where they were natural gas and all the different other sources of energy that are available.

是的，邁克爾，我認為——這是一個非常好的問題。而且我認為答案必須是兩個市場都處於微弱平衡狀態並且可以改變方向，對嗎？以鋁為例，在中國，需求增長非常好。但在供應方面，西南省份的電力不足。因此，我們看到了進一步削減的可能性，這意味著它會使他們陷入更大的赤字，然後最終以整個世界的赤字為例。在氧化鋁方面，這不一定是不同的觀點，對吧？在歐洲，天然氣價格再次比以前好，但與天然氣和所有其他可用能源相比，它們仍然顯著增加。

So it means that refining in Europe, and we see this in our San Ciprián refinery, it's why we're running at 50% is really difficult and is either extremely thinly margined or more likely a loss maker. So both markets -- my point is, both markets really are finally balanced. And so when we look at the short term, it's just hard to call which way they're going to go. Now somehow that's going to bridge to a longer term.

所以這意味著歐洲的煉油，我們在我們的 San Ciprián 煉油廠看到了這一點，這就是為什麼我們以 50% 的速度運行真的很困難，而且要么利潤微薄，要么更有可能虧損。所以這兩個市場——我的意思是，這兩個市場最終真的達到了平衡。因此，當我們著眼於短期時，很難判斷他們將走哪條路。現在不知何故，這將成為一個長期的橋樑。

And I am convinced and enthusiastic about the long term because we're seeing real expectations on where the new demand sources are going to come in when you look at electric vehicles, you look at the renewable energy and the need for aluminum as part of the infrastructure, and there just isn't enough new capacity coming online in order to be able to answer that aluminum demand or realistically to be able to answer that alumina demand either. And so all that comes together to say we're in a balanced and finally sort of very finely balanced market today, at some point, that is going to get to this sort of medium- to long-term where we have a much more positive future.

我對長期充滿信心和熱情，因為我們看到了對新需求來源的真正期望，當你看電動汽車時，你看可再生能源和鋁的需求作為其中的一部分基礎設施，並且沒有足夠的新產能上線以能夠滿足鋁需求或現實地能夠滿足氧化鋁需求。所以所有這些都表明我們今天處於一個平衡的，最終是一個非常精細的平衡市場，在某個時候，這將進入這種中長期，在那裡我們有一個更加積極的未來。

The next question comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

下一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Lucas Pipes。

Roy, I also have a higher-level question to kick things off. And there are a lot of commentators out there calling for $8, $9, $12, even $20-plus copper prices per pound. And in that sort of world, where in the market and what sort of applications would you see aluminum substitution? And is there enough discipline? I think you just kind of answered that question in the aluminum industry today that this would also pull up aluminum prices. Would really appreciate your perspective on that.

羅伊，我還有一個更高級的問題要開始。並且有很多評論員呼籲每磅銅價達到 8 美元、9 美元、12 美元，甚至超過 20 美元。在那種情況下，您會在市場上的哪些地方以及哪些應用中看到鋁的替代品？是否有足夠的紀律？我認為您今天剛剛回答了鋁行業的這個問題，即這也會拉高鋁價。非常感謝您對此的看法。

Yes. Lucas, I can give you an answer. I'm not sure if it will cover all the bases, but at least it will get you started. We look at history and it tells us that there is a real arbitrage that people play when it comes to copper and aluminum. And in fact, the 2 prices tend to be pretty closely connected through time, although you do see some variations in that. as copper prices start to jack up, I think we're also seeing some positives in the aluminum price as well. I was happily watching it over the course of today, and that certainly has a big -- makes a big difference to us.

是的。盧卡斯，我可以給你一個答案。我不確定它是否會涵蓋所有基礎，但至少它會讓你入門。我們回顧歷史，它告訴我們，人們在銅和鋁方面確實存在套利行為。事實上，這 2 個價格往往隨著時間的推移而密切相關，儘管你確實看到了其中的一些變化。隨著銅價開始上漲，我認為我們也看到了鋁價的一些積極因素。在今天的整個過程中，我都很高興地看著它，這對我們來說肯定有很大的不同。

I think they'll tend to be connected. But the more the copper price runs, the more substitution you're going to see back into aluminum because the fact is that aluminum tends to be very versatile. It is infinitely recyclable, and it's available, right? The fact is that we have available inventories and we have the ability to ramp up production. At the same time, I think your other point is very -- is really, really quite key to understanding the future. There's just not a lot of new production that's going to come online. You've got some smelters that we can restart.

我認為他們會傾向於連接。但銅價上漲得越多，你就會看到更多的鋁替代品，因為鋁的用途非常廣泛。它是無限可回收的，而且是可用的，對吧？事實上，我們有可用的庫存，而且我們有能力提高產量。同時，我認為你的另一點對於理解未來非常、非常關鍵。只是沒有很多新產品會上線。你有一些我們可以重新啟動的冶煉廠。

You've got the potential for some growth happening in Southeast Asia and in the Middle East, for example, but outside of that, there's just not a lot of projects. And so as that demand grows, as some of that substitution happens, there's just not a clear, a clear place where that new demand is going to come in. Part of the solution will be recycling. And I think that's an area we've got a breakthrough technology that we're working on with recycling to be able to better manage post-consumer scrap.

例如，你有可能在東南亞和中東發生一些增長，但除此之外，項目並不多。因此，隨著需求的增長，隨著一些替代的發生，新需求將進入的地方並不明確。部分解決方案將是回收利用。我認為這是一個我們擁有突破性技術的領域，我們正在致力於回收利用，以便能夠更好地管理消費後廢料。

So that is going to be supportive, but there's also just not enough metal. You're going to need primary metal, and it's going to have to come from somewhere. And so that's all stuff that needs to be designed and figured out on how we're going to be able to address that. But that's what leads me to my very positive view on the medium- to long-term in our industry.

所以這將起到支撐作用，但金屬也不夠。你將需要原生金屬，而且它必須來自某個地方。所以這就是所有需要設計和弄清楚我們將如何解決這個問題的東西。但這就是讓我對我們行業的中長期前景持非常積極看法的原因。

I really appreciate that color. And as a second question, switching topics. I appreciated the update on and reminder on the San Ciprián restart plans on the smelter side. And I just wanted -- is there kind of a minimum utilization that we should think of for 2024?

我真的很欣賞那種顏色。作為第二個問題，轉換話題。我感謝有關 San Ciprián 冶煉廠重啟計劃的更新和提醒。我只是想——我們應該考慮 2024 年的最低利用率嗎？

Yes. What we've tried to do is match the progress of the restart with the new contracts that we've signed, the new energy capacity coming online. And because it takes time to actually permit and then construct those new wind farms. It means a lot of that capacity is going to be pointed more towards 2025 rather than 2024. So we have a commitment to get started in 2024 and by January 1. It's -- and if I remember, it's 5% of the total output. So it's a relatively small piece of it.

是的。我們試圖做的是將重啟的進度與我們簽署的新合同、新能源產能的上線相匹配。而且因為實際許可然後建造這些新風電場需要時間。這意味著很多產能將更多地指向 2025 年而不是 2024 年。因此我們承諾在 2024 年和 1 月 1 日之前開始。它是——如果我沒記錯的話，它佔總產量的 5%。所以這是一個相對較小的部分。

That gets us started. If we get new wind capacity coming in, we can start to ramp that up because it's very low-priced energy, and we'd be glad to be smelting aluminum at those levels. But really, we need to be up and fully operational by October of 2025. That's a firm commitment that we have on our end. I think it matches what we've been able to build on the energy side. And to be quite honest, we're putting a lot of effort into making the San Ciprián smelter a competitive smelter for the long term.

這讓我們開始了。如果我們獲得新的風力發電能力，我們可以開始提高它，因為它是非常低價的能源，我們很高興能夠以這樣的水平冶煉鋁。但實際上，我們需要在 2025 年 10 月之前啟動並全面投入運營。這是我們對自己的堅定承諾。我認為它與我們在能源方面的建設相匹配。老實說，我們正在付出很多努力，使 San Ciprián 冶煉廠成為一個長期具有競爭力的冶煉廠。

The next question comes from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Timna Tanners。

I wanted to kick off, if I could, talking about the guidance on the -- unchanged guidance on shipments for aluminum and alumina. We just thought it was a little surprising given some of the disruptions. So I just want to make sure I understood. It seems like perhaps at Alumar was brief and doesn't matter. Maybe the other refinery is a small impact, but I just want to make sure I understood fully that maybe they were smaller, or maybe you're expecting some improvement as the year progresses to keep volumes the same.

如果可以的話，我想開始談論關於鋁和氧化鋁出貨量不變的指導。考慮到一些中斷，我們只是認為這有點令人驚訝。所以我只是想確保我理解。似乎在 Alumar 的時間很短而且無關緊要。也許其他煉油廠的影響很小，但我只是想確保我完全理解它們可能更小，或者你可能期望隨著時間的推移會有一些改進以保持產量不變。

Hi, Timna, I'll take this one. So in regard to the alumina guidance, we had a good outlook on the WA bauxite situation. So that was built into the guidance for the year. The Alumar refinery, the interruption is like we do expect to catch up and be on target for the year. And in aluminum, we're still tracking well to the guidance.

嗨，蒂姆娜，我要這個。因此，關於氧化鋁指導，我們對 WA 鋁土礦的情況有很好的展望。所以這被納入了今年的指導方針。 Alumar 煉油廠的中斷就像我們確實希望趕上並實現今年的目標一樣。在鋁方面，我們仍在很好地跟踪指導。

Okay. Great. I have so many more questions...

好的。偉大的。我還有很多問題...

I should have added that we haven't made decisions yet on the Portland restart. So again, not a huge volume there, we're 25% down, but that's one provision on the aluminum.

我應該補充說，我們還沒有就波特蘭重啟做出決定。所以再一次，那裡的數量不是很大，我們下降了 25%，但這是鋁的一項規定。

Got you. And that's somewhat small. So I can see how that might not move the needle. Okay. I guess I wanted to ask, if I could sneak in. On the bauxite situation, I just want to clarify, you're expecting the extended unfavorable mining circumstances to continue through the first quarter. But what's embedded in your assumptions is that you'll expect to be able to move to your expected mine plan beyond that? And what's baked in there? And then if I could sneak in another one on the energy exposure side, getting a lot of questions about benefits to lower prices, but I believe you're pretty well secured for the year. So just sneaking that one in as well, if you could comment on how much exposure you might have through the end of the year to power prices.

明白了這有點小。所以我可以看到這可能不會移動針頭。好的。我想我想問的是，我是否可以潛入。關於鋁土礦的情況，我只想澄清一下，您預計延長的不利採礦環境將持續到第一季度。但是，您的假設中包含的是您期望能夠超越該計劃轉向您預期的礦山計劃？裡面烤的是什麼？然後，如果我能在能源暴露方面偷偷摸摸地再做一個，得到很多關於降低價格的好處的問題，但我相信你今年的安全性很好。因此，如果您可以評論到今年年底您可能對電價有多少敞口，那麼也只是偷偷摸摸地把那個放進去。

Let me answer Western Australian and then I'll let Molly answer the energy question. I think the key here in Western Australia is that we're still in the midst of discussions with our -- with the Western Australian government. And so we're not yet at an endpoint, as I said in my comments, I'm confident that we are working collaboratively to reach that solution. What we've built into that assumption around going into first quarter 2024 is that it typically takes 9 to 12 months to develop the plan and then to deploy on the plan to be able to change to -- essentially to be able to change to new mining areas.

讓我回答西澳大利亞，然後讓莫莉回答能量問題。我認為西澳大利亞的關鍵在於我們仍在與西澳大利亞政府進行討論。因此，正如我在評論中所說，我們還沒有走到終點，我相信我們正在通力合作以達成該解決方案。我們在進入 2024 年第一季度時所做的假設是，通常需要 9 到 12 個月的時間來製定計劃，然後根據計劃進行部署，以便能夠更改為——基本上能夠更改為新的礦區。

And so that sort of helps you build your understanding of when we think we're going to be moving our way through that permitting process and then how long it takes us to be able to adapt and have the surety of where we're going to be mining and when we're going to be mining. It takes about one quarter to do the detailed planning to move from one grade to the next. So the quicker that we can finalize the discussions that we're having with the Western Australian government. The quicker we can be very clear about the extra measures that we need to take and what bauxite areas that we will be we'll be moving to next.

因此，這可以幫助您了解我們認為我們將在何時通過許可流程前進，以及我們需要多長時間才能適應並確定我們要去哪裡正在挖礦以及我們什麼時候開始挖礦。從一個年級轉到下一個年級的詳細計劃大約需要四分之一的時間。因此，我們可以盡快完成與西澳大利亞政府的討論。我們越快就可以非常清楚我們需要採取的額外措施以及我們下一步將前往哪些鋁土礦區。

And that, like I said, it's an ongoing discussion with the government. The quicker we can get that done, the quicker we'll have surety of where we'll be, the amount of ore that we'll have available and how much effort and infrastructure it takes to be able to reach that ore and then we can start counting backwards on when we can do that one quarter away from changing the bauxite grades. So I realize that's a lot of sort of calculations that sit inside of that. But as we look at it today, we think 1Q 2024 is our best estimate for when we can the last of those impacts, but we'll keep you updated as we progress. And Molly, I'll turn it over to you for energy.

而且，正如我所說，這是與政府的持續討論。我們越快完成這項工作，我們就能越快確定我們的位置、我們將擁有的礦石量以及需要多少努力和基礎設施才能到達這些礦石，然後我們可以開始倒計時，我們何時可以在改變鋁土礦品位四分之一之後做到這一點。所以我意識到其中有很多計算。但正如我們今天所看到的那樣，我們認為 2024 年第一季度是我們對這些影響何時能產生最後影響的最佳估計，但隨著我們的進展，我們會及時通知您最新情況。莫莉，我會把它交給你來獲取能量。

Timna, on your energy exposure question, you're right, we do have everything secured now, except one small piece in Norway. I do want to call out the list of smelter in Norway. We had highlighted a couple of quarters ago back in the third quarter of '22, that site actually lost $45 million for the quarter. And we're pleased to say that, that is now running at near breakeven. And with further premium improvements, we could get some more profitability out of that site. So a great turnaround for Lista where we've secured the power through the end of the year.

Timna，關於你的能量暴露問題，你是對的，我們現在確實已經確保了一切，除了挪威的一小部分。我確實想調出挪威的冶煉廠名單。幾個季度前，我們曾在 22 年第三季度強調過，該網站實際上在該季度虧損了 4500 萬美元。我們很高興地說，現在接近收支平衡。隨著保費的進一步提高，我們可以從該網站獲得更多利潤。這對 Lista 來說是一個巨大的轉變，我們在年底前確保了電力供應。

The next question comes from John Tumazos with Tumazos Very Independent Research.

下一個問題來自 John Tumazos 和 Tumazos Very Independent Research。

Trying to put together the different bits and pieces, should we expect something like a $10 a ton cost increase in the alumina segment in the June quarter? And something like a $0.03 or $0.05 fall in the aluminum metal segment, which I guess, benefit more from pitch and tar and energy?

試圖將不同的點點滴滴放在一起，我們是否應該期望氧化鋁部門在 6 月季度每噸成本增加 10 美元？鋁金屬部分下跌 0.03 美元或 0.05 美元，我猜這從瀝青、焦油和能源中獲益更多？

John, we didn't work it out to the ton level. We can certainly do that. I don't have that handy for you right now.

約翰，我們沒有把它解決到噸級。我們當然可以做到。我現在手頭沒有給你。

The next question comes from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Carlos De Alba。

So first question is coming back to the bauxite situation in Western Australia. So the guidance is for sequential guidance for $55 million unfavorable impact on lower-grade bauxite in the country. Given that the situation extends until the first quarter 2024, how should we look at cost going forward? Is this $51 million basically taking us to the level where you were going to be throughout the first quarter or until the first quarter of 2024, or there could be potentially higher negative impact on this situation in the Alumina segment? That will be my first question.

所以第一個問題是回到西澳大利亞的鋁土礦情況。因此，該指導是針對該國低品位鋁土礦 5500 萬美元不利影響的連續指導。鑑於這種情況一直持續到 2024 年第一季度，我們應該如何看待未來的成本？這 5100 萬美元是否基本上使我們達到了整個第一季度或直到 2024 年第一季度的水平，或者可能對氧化鋁領域的這種情況產生更大的負面影響？這將是我的第一個問題。

And my second question is, if you could maybe comment -- provide a little bit more detail on the value-added premiums that you are getting? And if there is any differentiation between Europe and the U.S. that are important for us taking into account?

我的第二個問題是，您是否可以發表評論——提供更多有關您獲得的增值保費的詳細信息？歐洲和美國之間是否存在任何對我們來說很重要的差異？

Okay. Carlos. First, on the $55 million guidance, that is applying to the second quarter, we do see opportunities to work on cost to reduce that. And we'll give you updates going forward. But for right now, the $55 million is applying for our future look and that includes about $10 million impact of volume and about $45 million for caustic, bauxite and energy usage is unfavorable at this bauxite grade.

好的。卡洛斯。首先，關於適用於第二季度的 5500 萬美元指導，我們確實看到了降低成本的機會。我們將為您提供未來的更新。但就目前而言，5500 萬美元用於我們的未來展望，其中包括約 1000 萬美元的產量影響和約 4500 萬美元的腐蝕性、鋁土礦和能源使用在該鋁土礦等級上不利。

And Carlos, just to tie on to Molly's comments there, too. I mean as we look forward to the next quarters, we're essentially running the Western Australian refineries at lower grades than we have before. And so there's a certain amount of learning that we're going to be doing as we go. And so like Molly said, the expectation is that we can learn and we can improve upon the operating efficiencies every quarter. But we don't want to make promises and guarantees on that until we can be certain that we can show that. So we hope to report some good news for you coming into this next quarter as we look towards future quarters.

還有 Carlos，我也想和 Molly 的評論聯繫起來。我的意思是，當我們期待下一個季度時，我們基本上以比以前更低的等級運行西澳大利亞煉油廠。因此，我們將在進行過程中進行一定程度的學習。因此，就像 Molly 所說的那樣，期望我們可以學習並且每個季度都可以提高運營效率。但在我們確定我們能夠證明這一點之前，我們不想就此做出承諾和保證。因此，我們希望在展望未來幾個季度時為您報告下個季度的一些好消息。

On value-added premiums, when we look at it year-on-year, we continue to see strength. The fact is, we came into what was a pretty crazy year with the first half with nothing but blue skies and the second half a bit more cloudy. Coming into this year, we're continuing to see strength. We're seeing more strength, honestly, in Europe. Part of that is the self sanctioning part of it is also because the energy situation is a lot better than it was expected. So coming into the year, I think we're seeing better strength in the volumes and in the end, the volumes that impact the premiums that we negotiate on a quarterly basis.

在增值保費方面，當我們同比看時，我們繼續看到實力。事實上，我們進入了非常瘋狂的一年，上半年只有藍天，下半年多雲。進入今年，我們將繼續看到實力。老實說，我們在歐洲看到了更多的力量。其中一部分是自我制裁的一部分，也是因為能源狀況比預期的要好得多。因此，進入今年，我認為我們看到了更好的銷量，最終，影響我們每季度協商的保費的銷量。

In North America, I think there was a bunch of uncertainty because of the banking situation. I know there were a lot of questions what that might do to demand. We seem to be successfully past that, at least for now. We're certainly seeing better premiums than we were last year. But we're also seeing a little bit of weakness on the billet side, particularly that's really coming in from building and construction, which just isn't moving as quickly as what we've seen in some other times. So it's sort of a mixed picture. I think we're seeing year-over-year improvements.

在北美，我認為由於銀行業的情況存在很多不確定性。我知道有很多問題可能會影響需求。我們似乎成功地超越了這一點，至少目前是這樣。我們肯定會看到比去年更好的保費。但我們也看到方坯方面的一些疲軟，尤其是建築和建築方面的疲軟，只是不像我們在其他時候看到的那樣快速移動。所以這是一個混合的畫面。我認為我們看到了逐年的改進。

We're sort of seeing a continued amount of uncertainty when we look out at the next quarter and hope that with some of the improvements that we're seeing in demand in China, particularly some of the resolution around what energy prices are going to look like and some of the more surety about what -- how much natural gas Europe is going to have going forward. I think that starts to build a little bit more resilience back into the market, which then has its [long-term] impacts in our value-added products.

當我們展望下個季度時，我們會看到持續存在的不確定性，並希望隨著我們看到的中國需求的一些改善，特別是圍繞能源價格走勢的一些解決方案喜歡和一些更確定的東西 - 歐洲將有多少天然氣向前發展。我認為這開始為市場建立更多的彈性，然後對我們的增值產品產生 [長期] 影響。

Right. So should we interpret by your comments on construction that we still haven't seen any meaningful impact from the [Infrastructural bill] approved last year in the U.S.?

正確的。那麼我們是否應該根據您對建設的評論來解釋我們仍然沒有看到美國去年批准的 [基礎設施法案] 產生任何有意義的影響？

We -- Carlos, we've seen a bunch of announcements and expectations. That's not transferred through into orders yet. But I would say it's probably still a little bit early for that money to be dispersed and for people to start turning the ideas and concepts into actual on-the-ground orders. Again, I'm pretty -- we've had a lot of interaction with government around the IRA. And obviously, in ways that we can be able to use that to help promote our breakthrough technologies. Just in some of the meetings that I've had, there's a lot of -- there tends to be when you have a group. You've got a lot of people around the table that are very enthusiastic about investing in the U.S. and building up capacity. And so I have to say, I'm very bullish, but it's probably still a little early to see that translate into specific orders for us.

我們——卡洛斯，我們看到了很多公告和期望。這還沒有轉移到訂單中。但我想說，現在分散這筆錢以及人們開始將想法和概念轉化為實際的實地訂單可能還為時過早。再說一次，我很漂亮——我們圍繞 IRA 與政府進行了很多互動。顯然，我們可以利用它來幫助推廣我們的突破性技術。就在我參加的一些會議中，有很多——當你有一個小組時往往會有。桌旁有很多人都非常熱衷於在美國投資和建設產能。所以我不得不說，我非常看好，但現在看到這轉化為我們的具體訂單可能還為時過早。

The next question comes from Emily Chieng with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Emily Chieng。

My first is just around the Alumar smelter. I thought that this was going to be a 9-month process in wrapping the smelter back to full capacity. So curious what's driving the delay there? Is it operational? Or is there some intentional throttling of volumes back given the pricing environment?

我的第一個是在 Alumar 冶煉廠附近。我認為這將需要 9 個月的時間才能使冶煉廠恢復滿負荷運轉。很好奇是什麼導致了那裡的延遲？可操作嗎？還是考慮到定價環境，有意限制交易量？

Yes. Emily, I'll take that one. It's more, I guess, logistical and operational in nature. Logistical from the fact that when we were first getting started restarting Alumar, and I know the plant well, I used to work there. It was just harder to get the quality of raw materials that we needed to have a kind of restart that we had expected. So that was a bit of disadvantage when we were getting started. I think we've been able to iron out those issues and now we have the qualities that we needed to be honest, because we have a good portion of the smelter already operating.

是的。艾米麗，我要那個。我想，它更多的是後勤和運營性質的。從我們剛開始重新啟動 Alumar 的事實開始，我很了解這家工廠，我曾經在那里工作。只是更難獲得我們期望的重啟所需的原材料質量。因此，當我們開始時，這有點不利。我認為我們已經能夠解決這些問題，現在我們擁有誠實所需的品質，因為我們有很大一部分冶煉廠已經在運營。

It means that you have the raw materials on hand and you're able to generate some of the (inaudible) and hot metal that you need in order to restart that next set of pots. The other (inaudible) surprise we have now Alumar is that as we got started with those pots that a lot of them have been relined but others have not been relined. We simply -- as we started them, we just didn't get the ability to keep them operating for as long as we had expected and stated another way, we had more failures than we expected to have during the restart process.

這意味著您手頭有原材料，並且能夠生成一些（聽不清）和熱金屬，以重新啟動下一組鍋。我們現在對 Alumar 感到的另一個（聽不清）驚喜是，當我們開始使用這些花盆時，其中很多已經重新襯裡，但其他的還沒有重新襯裡。我們只是——當我們啟動它們時，我們只是沒有能力讓它們像我們預期的那樣長時間運行，換句話說，我們在重啟過程中遇到的失敗比我們預期的要多。

I think that comes down to the fact that it was idle for a good portion of time, a number of years. So we've now got that sort of back on the road, we're essentially where we expected to be on the restart in the last time we reported at the end of Q4. We have the right management and the right operators and the right people working on this, and I think we're making real steady progress and I'm super enthusiastic about that team and about that facility for the long term because of the great power contract that we have and the strength of operations.

我認為這歸結為它在很長一段時間內閒置了很多年。所以我們現在已經回到了路上，我們基本上是在我們上次在第四季度末報告時預期重新啟動的地方。我們擁有合適的管理層、合適的運營商和合適的人員，我認為我們正在取得真正的穩步進展，我對這個團隊和長期的設施非常熱情，因為電力合同很大我們擁有和運營的實力。

Understood. That makes a lot of sense. And maybe shifting gears to San Ciprián, and I wanted to talk about the refinery there. I believe the gas environment for San Ciprián or gas contracts or rather the price of the [pot], at what point given where gas prices are today, is there any consideration to bring back some of the refining capacity there?

明白了。這很有意義。也許換檔到圣西普里安，我想談談那裡的煉油廠。我相信 San Ciprián 的天然氣環境或天然氣合同，或者更確切地說是 [pot] 的價格，考慮到今天的天然氣價格，在什麼時候，是否有考慮恢復那裡的一些煉油能力？

So I'll take that one and Molly can jump in if she has some quantitative comments as well. We're essentially running at 50% capacity. And I can promise you that running a refinery at 50% is never the ideal point. And really, what we've been targeting is to try and focus as much on non-metallurgical grade alumina because those tend to be higher-priced contracts and for more specialized operations. But we're also selling some smelter grade alumina as well. We analyze almost continuously to see at what point have natural gas prices come down.

所以我會接受那個，如果 Molly 也有一些定量評論，她可以加入。我們基本上以 50% 的容量運行。而且我可以向你保證，以 50% 的速度運行煉油廠從來都不是理想的點。實際上，我們的目標是嘗試盡可能多地關注非冶金級氧化鋁，因為這些往往是價格更高的合同，並且用於更專業的操作。但我們也出售一些冶煉級氧化鋁。我們幾乎不間斷地分析，看看天然氣價格在什麼時候下降了。

And then when you look at the price of SG&A in the market, does that create a business case for restarting more of that capacity. I'll put in a short advertisement we have a great workforce in San Ciprián. They really run that refinery really well. They're running it at levels, they've not for a very long time, and I'm very pleased with what they've done, and we're on top of things to see when we can make that natural gas price connect with the market environment so that we can bring that capacity back up online again.

然後，當您查看市場上 SG&A 的價格時，是否會創建一個重新啟動更多產能的商業案例。我將投放一個簡短的廣告，我們在 San Ciprián 擁有優秀的員工隊伍。他們真的很好地經營那家煉油廠。他們正在按水平運行，他們已經很長時間沒有運行了，我對他們所做的事情感到非常滿意，我們正處於最重要的位置，看看何時可以使天然氣價格保持一致隨著市場環境的變化，我們可以重新恢復產能。

I'll just add that we did see about a $20 [-odd] million sequential improvement there for that site this quarter. So great progress.

我只想補充一點，本季度我們確實看到該站點的連續改進大約為 20 [-odd] 百萬美元。這麼大的進步。

The next question comes from Alex Hacking with Citi.

下一個問題來自 Alex Hacking with Citi。

I just have a quick follow-up on WA. When will the state EPA make a decision about whether or not to accept the third-party referral? And if they do decide to accept that referral what is the practical implication of that? Sort of what happens next, does that constrain your ability to operate in any way and develop new mine plans?

我只是對 WA 進行了快速跟進。州環保署何時會作出是否接受第三方轉介的決定？如果他們確實決定接受該推薦，那麼這有什麼實際意義？接下來會發生什麼，這是否會限制您以任何方式運營和製定新礦山計劃的能力？

Yes, Alex, I'll take that one. So we're in the midst of sort of the data collection phase where the EPA is considering really 2 things. Number 1 is the referral valid, which means it -- does it fulfill all the requirements for actually having a referral. And then assuming that it's valid, then going into deciding whether, in fact, it should be assessed, i.e., should there be another process to determine what are the environmental. What are the current and then medium and long-term environmental impacts of that specific project. So that process will take some time.

是的，亞歷克斯，我要那個。所以我們正處於數據收集階段，EPA 正在考慮兩件事。數字 1 是推薦有效，這意味著它是否滿足實際推薦的所有要求。然後假設它是有效的，然後決定實際上是否應該對其進行評估，即是否應該有另一個流程來確定什麼是環境因素。該特定項目的當前、中期和長期環境影響是什麼。所以這個過程需要一些時間。

We don't have a specific estimate because it's also that time line is really reset every time they have another data request. And so it's going to take a little bit of time. The reason that we essentially structured what we've said about our bauxite grade impact by and extending it really into the first quarter of 2024 should give you a pretty good feel for what we think that this is going to add to the process, assuming it plays out the way that we should. I can't really jump into hypothetical situations about what that process is going to come out and what [billet] does it mean. The fact is it's -- there's not a clear standard for what happens next.

我們沒有具體的估計，因為每次他們有另一個數據請求時，時間線都會重新設置。所以這需要一點時間。我們從根本上構建了我們所說的關於鋁土礦品位影響的內容並將其真正擴展到 2024 年第一季度的原因應該讓您對我們認為這將增加到流程中的內容有一個很好的感覺，假設它發揮我們應該的方式。我不能真正跳入關於該過程將要出現的內容以及它的 [billet] 含義的假設情況。事實是——接下來會發生什麼並沒有明確的標準。

I think I would go back to say the state EPA and the referrals process as well as the current discussions around the operating permits is really all managed at the Western Australian level. So the work that we're doing in order to try and solve all of these problems is to make sure that we have the mitigations in place that we're protecting the watersheds and ensuring that we have the best quality, not impacting the quality of the great quality of water that Western Australia has and also making sure that we can accelerate our biodiversity and rehabilitation efforts.

我想我會回過頭來說，州環保署和轉介程序以及目前圍繞經營許可證的討論實際上都是在西澳大利亞層面進行管理的。因此，我們為嘗試解決所有這些問題所做的工作是確保我們有適當的緩解措施，我們正在保護流域並確保我們擁有最好的質量，而不是影響質量西澳大利亞擁有的優質水，並確保我們能夠加快我們的生物多樣性和恢復工作。

So when you think about what happens next, the answer is we need to come to an agreement with the Western Australian government on what we're doing in order to protect both of those things. that then indicates where we can mine the next set of tons, which then means we can have our -- can have this next round of permit that then buys us to certain to be able to come back to normal bauxite grades again. Again, and sort of like with the question that I have had earlier, there's a lot of what-ifs and a lot of questions that sit in there. It is a process that is playing out right now, and we will keep you updated as soon as we hear -- as soon as we continue to hear what's happening next. I appreciate the question, Alex.

所以當你考慮接下來會發生什麼時，答案是我們需要與西澳大利亞政府就我們正在做的事情達成協議，以保護這兩件事。然後表明我們可以在哪裡開採下一組噸，這意味著我們可以獲得 - 可以獲得下一輪許可證，然後我們可以確定能夠再次恢復到正常的鋁土礦等級。同樣，有點像我之前提出的問題，裡面有很多假設和很多問題。這是一個正在上演的過程，我們會在聽到後立即通知您 - 只要我們繼續聽到接下來發生的事情。我很欣賞這個問題，亞歷克斯。

The next question comes from Lawson Winder with Bank of America Securities.

下一個問題來自美國銀行證券公司的 Lawson Winder。

Two quick questions for me. First would be in terms of your expectations for the CapEx ramp for 2023, which quarter do you expect would be the heaviest level? And where do you expect Q2 '23 to be directionally versus Q1?

我有兩個簡單的問題。首先是您對 2023 年資本支出增長的預期，您預計哪個季度將達到最高水平？您期望 Q2 '23 與 Q1 的方向性在哪裡？

So Lawson, our fourth quarter is always the heaviest CapEx period, and we're still looking at $485 million for sustaining and $115 million for our return seeking. We don't have the number handy between the quarters before (inaudible).

所以勞森，我們的第四季度始終是資本支出最重的時期，我們仍在尋找 4.85 億美元的維持資金和 1.15 億美元的回報尋求資金。我們手頭沒有前兩個季度之間的號碼（聽不清）。

Would it be a gradual ramp up like it has been in the past. So...

會不會像過去那樣逐漸增加。所以...

Yes. Yes, I'll follow the past, gradual ramp up.

是的。是的，我會按照過去，逐漸上升。

And then I'm not sure I heard you mention it, but who is the third party that referred the case to the EPA and what are their key concerns?

然後我不確定我是否聽到你提到過，但是將案件提交給 EPA 的第三方是誰？他們的主要關注點是什麼？

The -- so we didn't specifically mention a third party, but it's a local NGO. The concerns that they have are really, I did mention what the concerns were, it's protecting the water quality because we are mining in areas that are within the watershed for Perth. We need to make sure that we are controlling erosion that we're applying all these mitigating measures to always protect water first and foremost, which is how we've always approached this, but I think we need to make sure that we can provide even more risk reduction in order to satisfy our regulators.

- 所以我們沒有特別提到第三方，但它是當地的非政府組織。他們真正擔心的是，我確實提到了他們擔心的是什麼，它正在保護水質，因為我們在珀斯流域內的地區進行採礦。我們需要確保我們正在控制侵蝕，我們正在應用所有這些緩解措施，始終首先保護水資源，這就是我們一直以來處理這個問題的方式，但我認為我們需要確保我們能夠提供甚至進一步降低風險以滿足我們的監管機構。

The other piece, of course, that they ask about is around biodiversity, and how we are rehabilitating in the Jarrah Forest. The Jarrah Forest is one of the most beautiful places on the planet. It is an immense privilege for us to be able to mine there. I look back at our 60 years of operating in Western Australia. And I'm very proud of what we've been able to accomplish, and that's on the science side, as well as on the practical and pragmatic side of actually seeing that restoration because it's been so long live to see our restored habitat and all the way from relatively new plantations, all the way to what is advanced and develop new forests.

當然，他們詢問的另一部分是關於生物多樣性，以及我們如何在 Jarrah 森林中恢復。賈拉森林是地球上最美麗的地方之一。能夠在那裡開採對我們來說是一種巨大的榮幸。我回顧了我們在西澳大利亞經營的 60 年。我為我們能夠取得的成就感到非常自豪，這是在科學方面，以及實際看到恢復的實際和務實方面，因為看到我們恢復的棲息地和所有從相對較新的種植園，一直到先進的和開發新森林的方式。

As you can imagine, our practices have improved year after year. We have some super cool technologies that we've been able to start using really over this last decade particularly, and we're very focused on making sure that not only are we developing for us, but we're making sure that we preserve all the biodiversity that was there after we finished rehabilitation. So we sort of measure the number of species and things along those lines. And in fact, we were the -- one of the few Western Australian companies that, in fact, has returned and reserved -- received a certificate of completions for rehabilitation that has been completed and then [hand] back over to the state.

可以想像，我們的做法年復一年地得到改善。我們有一些超級酷的技術，特別是在過去十年中，我們已經開始真正使用這些技術，我們非常專注於確保我們不僅為我們開發，而且我們確保我們保留所有我們完成康復後那裡的生物多樣性。所以我們沿著這些路線測量物種和事物的數量。事實上，我們是 - 實際上已經返回並保留的少數西澳大利亞公司之一 - 收到了修復完成證書，該證書已經完成，然後 [移交] 給國家。

So a great legacy of stuff that we've been able to do. That's good, but we need to do better, and we need to accelerate, and we need to make sure that we're also rehabilitating very quickly, particularly in sensitive areas that obviously are these places where we need to always be rehabilitating as quickly as we possibly can. So all that to say it's -- those are really the 2 issues that they've really made questions about. They happen to be aligned with the same thing that we're discussing with our regulators. So again, I think the answer here is that we need to make sure that we're delivering on what we've been requested, which I'm very confident that we're doing. We just need to make sure that we have those consensual discussions and the collaboration between government and Alcoa.

所以我們已經能夠做的事情的偉大遺產。這很好，但我們需要做得更好，我們需要加快速度，我們需要確保我們也在快速恢復，特別是在敏感地區，顯然這些地方我們需要盡快恢復我們可能可以。綜上所述，這就是他們真正提出問題的兩個問題。它們恰好與我們正在與監管機構討論的同一件事保持一致。因此，我再次認為這裡的答案是我們需要確保我們正在交付我們所要求的，我非常有信心我們正在做。我們只需要確保我們有那些協商一致的討論以及政府和美鋁之間的合作。

And our last question is a follow-up from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

我們的最後一個問題是 Lucas Pipes 與 B. Riley Securities 的後續行動。

The follow-up is on the LME situation, Roy, that you mentioned earlier. Do you have a kind of time line in mind for potential breaking point given the inflows of Russian Metal in London?

後續就是你剛才提到的LME的情況，Roy。考慮到倫敦的俄羅斯金屬流入，您是否有一個潛在突破點的時間線？

Yes. Lucas, it's always good to get these questions. it's hard to predict exactly. And I hate to think in to linear fashion. But when we started out this time last year, there was about 5% of inventories that were Russian. We're now at 53%. I can't tell you when the market starts to get more and more distorted. But at some point, the only thing left in LME warehouses will be metal that is only consumed by a small group of non-Western producers. We're seeing more and more of our customers that are extremely sensitive to any Russian content because if their products then go to the U.S., they could have very significant tariffs placed on them. because of the way that these tariffs were fashioned.

是的。盧卡斯，得到這些問題總是好的。很難準確預測。而且我討厭考慮線性時尚。但是當我們去年這個時候開始的時候，大約有 5% 的庫存是俄羅斯的。我們現在是 53%。我不能告訴你市場什麼時候開始變得越來越扭曲。但在某個時候，LME 倉庫中唯一剩下的將是僅由一小部分非西方生產商消費的金屬。我們看到越來越多的客戶對任何俄羅斯內容都極為敏感，因為如果他們的產品隨後銷往美國，他們可能會被徵收非常高的關稅。因為這些關稅的製定方式。

And so to me, 53%, like I tried to be very clear, my remarks is already a point of significant warning that very quickly, we're going to get to a point where there's the aluminum metal price LME that's based off these inventories is going to be based off metal that nobody wants. That's just not a place that we want to be. It's just -- it's just not sensible that we're seeing curtailments to the rest of the world while Russia continues to operate at full capacity. It just has no sense to me, which is why we believe the sanctions are the best answer, number one. And number two, we think the LME should delist Russian metal immediately.

所以對我來說，53%，就像我試圖非常清楚的那樣，我的言論已經是一個重要的警告點，很快，我們將達到 LME 鋁金屬價格基於這些庫存的地步將基於沒人想要的金屬。那不是我們想要成為的地方。只是 - 在俄羅斯繼續滿負荷運轉的同時，我們看到對世界其他地區的削減是不明智的。這對我來說毫無意義，這就是為什麼我們認為製裁是最好的答案，第一。第二，我們認為 LME 應該立即將俄羅斯金屬退市。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference over to Roy Harvey for closing remarks.

我們的問答環節到此結束。我想將會議轉交給 Roy Harvey 作閉幕詞。

Thank you, Vaishnavi, and thanks once again for everyone who joined our call today. I've appreciated the questions and continued interest in Alcoa. And I also want to thank Molly for joining me for her first earnings call. I know she'll be relieved that it's over. But it's also just a privilege and a pleasure to have her here at my side. As we outlined in our presentation today, we're making progress every day in accordance with our purpose, vision and values. We aim for continued improvement in everything we do, and I truly have confidence in our teams and their abilities. We know how to solve problems.

謝謝你，Vaishnavi，並再次感謝今天加入我們電話會議的每一個人。我很感激這些問題並對美鋁持續感興趣。我還要感謝莫莉和我一起參加她的第一次財報電話會議。我知道一切都結束了，她會鬆一口氣的。但有她在我身邊也是一種榮幸和榮幸。正如我們在今天的演講中所概述的那樣，我們每天都在根據我們的宗旨、願景和價值觀取得進展。我們的目標是不斷改進我們所做的一切，我真的對我們的團隊和他們的能力充滿信心。我們知道如何解決問題。

That's been part of the aluminum industry for the 25 years that have been here. This includes the challenges that we face today while continuing to work on our long-term strategies on resolving Western Australia as a great example. We know the future will bring even more importance to our products across the aluminum value chain as the world works to decarbonize. That's why we've been so focused on building an even stronger company and not sacrificing the work that we're doing on our breakthrough technologies, and we intend to remain resilient and ready and running forward. I look forward to talk to you again in July when we'll share our second quarter results. In the meantime, please be safe. And once again, thanks for your time today. Good night, everyone.

25 年來，它一直是鋁工業的一部分。這包括我們今天面臨的挑戰，同時繼續制定解決西澳大利亞問題的長期戰略，這是一個很好的例子。我們知道，隨著世界致力於脫碳，未來我們的產品將在整個鋁價值鏈中變得更加重要。這就是為什麼我們一直如此專注於打造一家更強大的公司，而不是犧牲我們在突破性技術方面所做的工作，我們打算保持彈性、做好準備並向前邁進。我期待在 7 月再次與您交談，屆時我們將分享我們的第二季度業績。在此期間，請注意安全。再次感謝您今天的時間。各位晚安。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may all now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。你們現在可能都斷開連接了。