美國鋁公司 (AA) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Alcoa Corporation Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Presentation and Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please note, this event is being recorded.

下午好，歡迎來到美鋁公司 2023 年第二季度收益演示和電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，正在記錄此事件。

I would now like to turn the conference over to James Dwyer, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將會議交給投資者關係副總裁 James Dwyer。請繼續。

Thank you, and good day, everyone. I'm joined today by Roy Harvey, Alcoa Corporation President and Chief Executive Officer; and Molly Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Roy and Molly.

謝謝大家，祝大家有美好的一天。今天，美國鋁業公司總裁兼首席執行官羅伊·哈維 (Roy Harvey) 也加入了我的行列。執行副總裁兼首席財務官莫莉·比爾曼 (Molly Beerman)。我們將在羅伊和莫莉發表評論後回答您的問題。

As a reminder, today's discussion will contain forward-looking statements relating to future events and expectations that are subject to various assumptions and caveats. Factors that may cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these statements are included in today's presentation and in our SEC filings.

提醒一下，今天的討論將包含與未來事件和預期相關的前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到各種假設和警告的影響。可能導致公司實際結果與這些聲明存在重大差異的因素已包含在今天的演示文稿和我們向 SEC 提交的文件中。

In addition, we have included some non-GAAP financial measures in this presentation. For historical non-GAAP financial measures, reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the appendix to today's presentation. With respect to our outlook, we have not presented a quantitative reconciliation of certain forward-looking non-GAAP financial measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures because it is impractical to forecast certain special items without unreasonable efforts due to the variability and complexity associated with predicting the occurrence and financial impact of such special items as described in today's presentation. Any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA.

此外，我們還在本演示文稿中納入了一些非公認會計準則財務指標。對於歷史非 GAAP 財務指標，可以在今天演示文稿的附錄中找到與最直接可比的 GAAP 財務指標的調節表。就我們的前景而言，我們尚未對某些前瞻性非公認會計原則財務指標與其最直接可比的公認會計原則財務指標進行定量調節，因為由於相關的可變性和復雜性，如果不做出不合理的努力來預測某些特殊項目是不切實際的。預測今天的演示中描述的此類特殊項目的發生和財務影響。我們今天討論中提及的 EBITDA 均指調整後的 EBITDA。

Finally, as previously announced, the earnings release and slide presentation are available on our website. With that, here's Roy.

最後，正如之前宣布的那樣，收益發布和幻燈片演示可在我們的網站上獲取。說到這裡，羅伊來了。

Thank you, Jim, and thanks to everyone for joining our call. I'm happy to be here today with Molly Beerman, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. She'll soon provide a detailed review of the financial results, but let's start first with safety. We always strive to protect our employees, contractors and visitors from injuries. This is the expectation in all of our daily activities, and it is particularly important when we consider any modifications to our processes or when upset conditions occur.

謝謝吉姆，也感謝大家加入我們的電話會議。我很高興今天能與我們的執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Molly Beerman 一起出席。她很快就會提供財務業績的詳細審查，但讓我們首先從安全開始。我們始終努力保護我們的員工、承包商和訪客免受傷害。這是我們所有日常活動的期望，當我們考慮對流程進行任何修改或發生異常情況時，這一點尤其重要。

Every quarter, we report during this call any serious incidents that we would classify as an FSI-A, which stands for fatal or serious injury, actual. This would involve injuries that are life-altering or fatal. I'm disappointed to report that an employee at our Icelandic smelter lost partial vision in one eye from an injury that happened when he was sampling molten metal. We have investigated the incident and we are working to prevent it from recurring at any of our locations.

每個季度，我們都會在電話會議期間報告任何我們歸類為 FSI-A 的嚴重事件，它代表實際的致命或嚴重傷害。這將涉及改變生活或致命的傷害。我很失望地報告說，我們冰島冶煉廠的一名員工在對熔融金屬進行取樣時受傷，一隻眼睛失去了部分視力。我們已經調查了這一事件，並正在努力防止此類事件在我們的任何地點再次發生。

In the second quarter, our overall injury rates continued to decline. We also are seeing positive trends in leading indicators showing we're proactively identifying and correcting potential risks before they result in injuries. We are focused on continued improvement. Any injury is unacceptable and we expect our teams to be constantly learning and adapting.

第二季度，我們的整體傷病率繼續下降。我們還看到領先指標的積極趨勢，表明我們正在主動識別並糾正潛在風險，以免造成傷害。我們專注於持續改進。任何傷害都是不可接受的，我們希望我們的團隊能夠不斷學習和適應。

Now let me turn to our financial results. We generated slightly higher sequential revenue in the quarter of $2.68 billion. We increased the shipments, which outweighed lower average realized pricing. Still, as you can see, this quarter's challenging market conditions and operational disruptions led to an EBITDA outcome that demonstrates the need for continued improvement. We did pay another quarterly cash dividend and we finished the quarter with $1 billion in cash.

現在讓我談談我們的財務業績。我們本季度的環比收入略高，達到 26.8 億美元。我們增加了出貨量，這抵消了平均實現價格的下降。儘管如此，正如您所看到的，本季度充滿挑戰的市場條件和運營中斷導致 EBITDA 結果表明需要持續改進。我們確實支付了另一季度現金股息，本季度結束時我們擁有 10 億美元現金。

We also continued to strengthen the balance sheet by reducing risk from pension plans. This was accomplished via another annuitization, our sixth such transaction. This one was for certain retirees and beneficiaries in Canada, providing them the same benefits while removing the liabilities and corresponding assets from our books. No cash funding was required for this transaction.

我們還通過降低養老金計劃的風險來繼續強化資產負債表。這是通過另一項年金化實現的，這是我們的第六次此類交易。這是針對加拿大的某些退休人員和受益人的，為他們提供相同的福利，同時從我們的賬簿中刪除負債和相應的資產。本次交易不需要現金融資。

Operationally, in the second quarter, we were also pleased to reach a new labor agreement with the United Steelworkers that covers more than 800 employees at 2 of our smelters in the United States, Warrick in the state of Indiana and Massena in the state of New York. Also, we were pleased to announce in May a major sales contract with Emirates Global Aluminium to supply smelter-grade alumina from Western Australia. This is an 8-year deal beginning in 2024 and will represent a significant portion of our third-party alumina sales. We will be EGA's largest third-party supplier, supplementing their own production at their refinery in Abu Dhabi. We appreciate the confidence that this customer places in us and the many others we serve.

在運營方面，我們還很高興在第二季度與美國鋼鐵工人聯合會達成了一項新的勞工協議，該協議涵蓋了我們位於美國的兩家冶煉廠（印第安納州的沃里克和新州的馬塞納）的 800 多名員工。約克。此外，我們很高興在五月份宣布與阿聯酋環球鋁業公司簽訂了一項重要銷售合同，從西澳大利亞供應冶煉級氧化鋁。這是一項從 2024 年開始為期 8 年的交易，將占我們第三方氧化鋁銷售額的很大一部分。我們將成為 EGA 最大的第三方供應商，補充他們在阿布扎比煉油廠的生產。我們感謝這位客戶對我們以及我們所服務的許多其他客戶的信任。

Before I hand it over to Molly, I'd like to outline our most critical steps to drive improved performance. Importantly, I am pleased to see improving stability across our operations. We have a united team focused on taking action on items most critical to our success. Let me quickly highlight some areas of attention for us in the coming weeks. First, we are focused on securing our approvals for bauxite mining in Western Australia. This is a key priority. In the meantime, we are currently using bauxite with lower grade, and our global centers of excellence are working to optimize our refining system to process these lower grades.

在將其交給 Molly 之前，我想概述一下推動績效改進的最關鍵步驟。重要的是，我很高興看到我們運營的穩定性不斷提高。我們擁有一支團結的團隊，專注於對對我們成功最關鍵的事項採取行動。讓我快速強調一下我們在未來幾週內需要關注的一些領域。首先，我們的重點是獲得西澳大利亞鋁土礦開采的批准。這是一個關鍵優先事項。與此同時，我們目前正在使用較低品位的鋁土礦，我們的全球卓越中心正在努力優化我們的精煉系統來加工這些較低品位的鋁土礦。

Second, we are continuing to implement our plans to drive stability across our operations. Our third quarter outlook, to be covered in detail by Molly, shows that operational stability drives financial improvements. Our leaders are focused on spending even more time on the shop floor, setting clear stability criteria and moving towards proactive maintenance to prevent emergency breakdowns. We ended the second quarter with good improvement and have seen a strong start to the third quarter.

其次，我們正在繼續實施我們的計劃，以促進我們業務的穩定。莫莉將詳細介紹我們的第三季度前景，該前景表明運營穩定性推動財務改善。我們的領導者專注於在車間花費更多時間，制定明確的穩定性標準並轉向主動維護以防止緊急故障。我們在第二季度末取得了良好的進步，並在第三季度取得了強勁的開局。

Third, we are watching the ongoing developments in our markets so we can adapt our programs, product portfolio and operations to today's conditions but also to emerging demands from our customers. Aluminum is a critical part of a decarbonized world, and our portfolio of low-carbon, customer-centric value-add products will help us to continue to be a supplier of choice.

第三，我們正在關注市場的持續發展，以便我們能夠調整我們的計劃、產品組合和運營，以適應當今的條件以及客戶的新需求。鋁是脫碳世界的重要組成部分，我們的低碳、以客戶為中心的增值產品組合將幫助我們繼續成為首選供應商。

And finally, we are continuously focused on ensuring that we are operating our facilities in an optimal fashion and making decisions that can drive short-, medium- and long-term profitability across our company and through the cycles. We continuously review all of our facilities to be sure we are operating the right portfolio of assets for current and expected conditions.

最後，我們不斷致力於確保我們以最佳方式運營我們的設施，並做出能夠推動整個公司和整個週期的短期、中期和長期盈利能力的決策。我們不斷審查我們的所有設施，以確保我們正在運營適合當前和預期條件的正確資產組合。

With that, I'll turn it over to Molly to talk about the results, a few key emerging trends and our outlook for the third quarter. Molly, please go ahead.

接下來，我將把它交給莫莉來討論結果、一些關鍵的新興趨勢以及我們對第三季度的展望。莫莉，請繼續。

Thank you, Roy. While both alumina and aluminum third-party realized prices declined slightly in the second quarter, revenues increased 1% on higher shipments. The net loss attributable to Alcoa improved $129 million to $102 million or $0.57 per share, primarily due to the nonrecurrence of charges taken in the first quarter, a $101 million Intalco smelter closure charge and a $41 million utility settlement charge at Ma'aden. On an adjusted basis, the net loss was $62 million or $0.35 per share, and adjusted EBITDA excluding special items declined $103 million to $137 million.

謝謝你，羅伊。儘管第二季度氧化鋁和第三方鋁的實現價格均略有下降，但由於出貨量增加，收入增長了 1%。美國鋁業公司的淨虧損從 1.29 億美元增至 1.02 億美元，即每股 0.57 美元，這主要是由於第一季度不再收取費用、Intalco 冶煉廠關閉費用為 1.01 億美元，以及 Ma'aden 的公用事業結算費用為 4100 萬美元。調整後的淨虧損為 6200 萬美元，即每股 0.35 美元，調整後的 EBITDA（不包括特殊項目）下降了 1.03 億美元，至 1.37 億美元。

Let's look more closely at the key drivers of adjusted EBITDA. The 3 largest drivers of the $103 million sequential decline were higher production costs, lower metal prices and lower volume, which together totaled $167 million. The Alumina segment was the primary source of the increased production costs and lower volume, with $45 million related to lower Australia bauxite grades, better than expected as the full impact of lower grades was not realized in the quarter and with the remainder due to higher maintenance outages and related costs at the Alumar and Wagerup refineries.

讓我們更仔細地看看調整後 EBITDA 的關鍵驅動因素。導致 1.03 億美元環比下降的三大因素是生產成本上升、金屬價格下降和銷量下降，總計 1.67 億美元。氧化鋁部門是生產成本增加和產量下降的主要原因，其中 4500 萬美元與澳大利亞鋁土礦品位較低有關，好於預期，因為本季度尚未實現較低品位的全面影響，其餘部分則由於維護費用增加Alumar 和 Wagerup 煉油廠的停電和相關成本。

Production costs in the Aluminum segment were favorable $14 million, led by improvements at both Norway operations and Alumar. The remainder of the bridge factors net to a $64 million improvement. Highlights here include lower raw material costs in both segments as well as higher API, partially offset by unfavorable product mix primarily in the Alumina segment.

得益於挪威業務和 Alumar 的改進，鋁業務部門的生產成本有利地達到 1,400 萬美元。其餘橋樑因素淨增加 6,400 萬美元。這裡的亮點包括兩個細分市場的原材料成本降低以及 API 較高，但主要被氧化鋁細分市場不利的產品組合部分抵消。

Outside the segments, there was a sequential improvement of $41 million, with intersegment eliminations providing the lion's share; a sequential benefit of $39 million, as less profit was held from earnings when intersegment volumes declined and alumina production costs increased. Transformation costs increased $9 million, coming more in line with expected levels and other corporate spending improved $11 million.

在部門之外，連續改善了 4100 萬美元，其中部門間消除佔據了最大份額；連續效益為 3,900 萬美元，因為當部門間銷量下降且氧化鋁生產成本增加時，收益中的利潤減少。轉型成本增加了 900 萬美元，更加符合預期水平，其他企業支出增加了 1100 萬美元。

Now let's turn to other financial metrics and cash flow. While year-to-date return on equity is negative 4%, we again paid our $0.10 per share dividend in the second quarter, totaling $18 million. Year-to-date free cash flow less net NCI distributions was negative $274 million, of which negative $108 million was in the second quarter, a $58 million sequential improvement. Cash ended the period at $1 billion and proportional adjusted net debt rose to $1.5 billion.

現在讓我們轉向其他財務指標和現金流。雖然年初至今的股本回報率為負 4%，但我們在第二季度再次支付了每股 0.10 美元的股息，總計 1800 萬美元。年初至今的自由現金流減去 NCI 淨分配額為負 2.74 億美元，其中第二季度為負 1.08 億美元，環比改善 5800 萬美元。期末現金為 10 億美元，按比例調整後的淨債務增至 15 億美元。

Year-to-date, the 3 largest uses of cash were income taxes, capital expenditures and working capital. We expect cash taxes to be a smaller use of cash in the second half of the year. The $246 million included $173 million of prior period taxes and $73 million of current year taxes. We expect working capital to continue to improve as well. Days working capital decreased 1 day to 55 days. While working capital was a $216 million use of cash in the first quarter, it was a modest $32 million source in the second quarter, and we expect it to be a larger source of cash in the second half of the year.

今年迄今為止，現金的三大用途是所得稅、資本支出和營運資金。我們預計現金稅將在今年下半年減少現金的使用。 2.46 億美元包括 1.73 億美元的前期稅金和 7300 萬美元的本年度稅金。我們預計營運資金也將繼續改善。營運資金天數減少 1 天至 55 天。雖然第一季度營運資金使用了 2.16 億美元的現金，但第二季度的營運資金為 3200 萬美元，我們預計下半年將成為更大的現金來源。

Let's take a deeper look at this quarter's cash flow and working capital. Similar to the year-to-date cash flow chart, the sequential quarter chart shows that cash income taxes and capital expenditures were 2 large uses of cash in the quarter. Tax payments are expected to decline in the third quarter. Of the $155 million of cash taxes, $115 million were for prior periods, with current period taxes only $40 million, and we expect little or no payments for prior period taxes in the second half of the year. Conversely, we expect capital expenditures to remain a significant use of cash, increasing from $115 million in the second quarter to approximately $155 million in the third quarter.

讓我們更深入地了解一下本季度的現金流和營運資金。與年初至今的現金流量圖類似，連續季度圖表顯示，現金所得稅和資本支出是本季度現金的兩大用途。預計第三季度納稅額將下降。在 1.55 億美元的現金稅中，1.15 億美元用於前期稅款，當期稅款僅為 4,000 萬美元，我們預計下半年將很少或根本不支付前期稅款。相反，我們預計資本支出仍將是現金的重要用途，從第二季度的 1.15 億美元增加到第三季度的約 1.55 億美元。

As we noted earlier, the working capital change shifted from a use of cash in the first quarter to a source of cash in the second quarter. Payables have stabilized as capital expenditures picked up and offset continued price declines in purchased raw materials. Accounts receivable declined slightly in the second quarter and lowered overall working capital. While raw material inventory values declined notably in the quarter on lower cost, quantities of in-process and finished goods were up at quarter end, but we do expect improvements as we move through the year. Cash flow, again, was helped by a net noncontrolling interest contribution of $20 million.

正如我們之前指出的，營運資金變化從第一季度的現金使用轉變為第二季度的現金來源。隨著資本支出的增加並抵消了採購原材料價格的持續下跌，應付賬款已趨於穩定。第二季度應收賬款小幅下降，降低了整體營運資金。儘管由於成本降低，原材料庫存價值在本季度顯著下降，但半成品和製成品的數量在季度末有所增加，但我們確實預計隨著全年的發展，情況會有所改善。 2000 萬美元的淨非控股利息貢獻再次幫助現金流。

Speaking of inventories and purchase costs, we continue to see purchase prices for key raw materials decline, and as noted on the EBITDA bridge, we are starting to see improvements flow through to the income statement. The 3 key raw materials are caustic soda for our Alumina segment and calcined petroleum coke and coal tar pitch for our Aluminum segment.

說到庫存和採購成本，我們繼續看到主要原材料的採購價格下降，並且正如 EBITDA 橋上所指出的，我們開始看到損益表有所改善。三種關鍵原材料是我們氧化鋁部門的燒鹼以及我們鋁部門的煅燒石油焦和煤焦油瀝青。

Looking at quarterly average market index prices, all 3 commodities declined again in the second quarter. Year-over-year, we are seeing approximately 44% improvement in caustic prices, approximately 30% improvement in quoted prices for coke, and even pitch is down, albeit very slightly from year ago levels. We also saw lower spot prices at quarter end and expect to see further purchase price improvements. These purchase price improvements flow into our inventory valuation and can take 1 to 2 quarters before the improvement starts to flow through COGS and hit the income and cash flow statements. That said, should these raw material price trends continue, we expect to be rewarded with lower inventory valuation, lower COGS related to raw materials and improved cash flow.

從季度平均市場指數價格來看，三類商品二季度均再次下跌。與去年同期相比，我們看到苛性鹼價格上漲了約 44%，焦炭報價上漲了約 30%，甚至瀝青也有所下降，儘管與去年同期相比略有下降。我們還發現季度末現貨價格較低，預計採購價格將進一步提高。這些採購價格的改善流入我們的庫存估值，可能需要 1 到 2 個季度的時間才能開始流入 COGS 並影響收入和現金流量表。也就是說，如果這些原材料價格趨勢持續下去，我們預計將獲得較低的庫存估值、較低的與原材料相關的銷貨成本和改善的現金流。

Now let's turn to our expectations for the year and the third quarter. Our only change in the full year outlook is to decrease capital expenditures by a total of $60 million as some project time lines are extending. Return-seeking capital spending is expected to be approximately $90 million for the year and sustaining capital approximately $450 million. Regarding sequential changes for the third quarter. In the Alumina segment, we expect an improvement of approximately $65 million due to lower raw material prices and better production costs and higher volumes as elevated maintenance during the second quarter concludes. In addition, we expect a $10 million unfavorable impact from lower bauxite grades in Australia, with impacts now expected to continue through at least mid-2024.

現在讓我們轉向對今年和第三季度的預期。我們對全年展望的唯一變化是，由於一些項目工期延長，資本支出減少了總計 6000 萬美元。預計今年尋求回報的資本支出約為 9000 萬美元，維持資本約為 4.5 億美元。關於第三季度的連續變化。在氧化鋁領域，由於原材料價格下降、生產成本改善以及第二季度維護增加導致產量增加，我們預計將實現約 6500 萬美元的增長。此外，我們預計澳大利亞鋁土礦品位較低將產生 1,000 萬美元的不利影響，目前預計影響至少將持續到 2024 年中期。

We expect to face the full impact of the lower grade as higher-quality bauxite inventories have now been depleted. That means an increase from a $45 million impact in the second quarter to $55 million in the third quarter before identified cost savings initiatives take effect and reduce this number in future quarters. In the Aluminum segment, we expect a net improvement of approximately $25 million on favorable raw materials and lower production costs, partially offset by unfavorable price/mix primarily due to softer billet demand.

由於優質鋁土礦庫存現已耗盡，我們預計將面臨品位較低的全面影響。這意味著在確定的成本節約舉措生效並在未來幾個季度減少這一數字之前，影響將從第二季度的 4500 萬美元增加到第三季度的 5500 萬美元。在鋁行業，我們預計有利的原材料和較低的生產成本將帶來約 2500 萬美元的淨改善，但部分被主要由於方坯需求疲軟導致的不利價格/結構所抵消。

Finally, we expect alumina cost in the Aluminum segment to be favorable by $5 million. Below the EBITDA line, other expense in the second quarter included an unusually large favorable foreign currency impact of $40 million due to recent changes in the value of the U.S. dollar. This gain may not recur. Based on recent pricing, the company expects third quarter operational tax expense to approximate $10 million to $20 million. Now I will turn it back to Roy.

最後，我們預計鋁行業的氧化鋁成本將有利 500 萬美元。在 EBITDA 線以下，第二季度的其他費用包括由於最近美元價值的變化而產生的 4000 萬美元的異常大的有利外幣影響。這種收益可能不會再次出現。根據最近的定價，該公司預計第三季度營業稅費用約為 1000 萬至 2000 萬美元。現在我將把它轉回給羅伊。

Thanks, Molly. Next, I'd like to provide some updates from our operations across the globe, beginning with Western Australia. As I said last quarter, we're continuing to work with a host of government agencies on the approvals process for our annual mine plan. Our Mine Management Programs, or MMPs, are normally approved annually on a 5-year basis. Separately, the Western Australian Environmental Protection Authority, or EPA, is considering whether to conduct additional environmental review on these MMPs.

謝謝，莫莉。接下來，我想提供我們在全球各地運營的一些最新情況，首先是西澳大利亞州。正如我上季度所說，我們將繼續與許多政府機構合作，制定年度採礦計劃的審批流程。我們的礦山管理計劃 (MMP) 通常每 5 年每年批准一次。另外，西澳大利亞州環境保護局（EPA）正在考慮是否對這些 MMP 進行額外的環境審查。

The resolution of our mine approvals does not have a fixed timetable, but we are working to constructively address stakeholder needs and expectations in a timely fashion. This is a key priority for our company, and we're focused on doing what is necessary to secure approvals. We are increasing controls to protect drinking water sources, further stepping up mine site rehabilitation and enhancing the management of social impacts. This requires discussion and action with various government agencies. So to give this complex regulatory process appropriate time, we are now mining lower-grade bauxite in previously approved areas.

我們的礦山審批決議沒有固定的時間表，但我們正在努力及時建設性地滿足利益相關者的需求和期望。這是我們公司的首要任務，我們致力於採取必要措施來獲得批准。我們正在加強對飲用水源的保護，進一步加強礦區恢復和社會影響管理。這需要與各個政府機構進行討論並採取行動。因此，為了給這一複雜的監管過程提供適當的時間，我們現在正在先前批准的地區開採低品位鋁土礦。

As Molly just pointed out, using lower-grade bauxite has a cost. It means using more raw materials and producing less alumina per ton of bauxite. In the second quarter, this unfavorably impacted Alumina segment adjusted EBITDA by $45 million. This is better than we originally expected due to slightly higher bauxite grades and good operational practices. As we look to future quarters, bauxite grades will continue to vary. We expect that it could take 9 to 12 months to transition to new mine areas once approved and improve the bauxite quality sent to our refineries. Thus, the expected impact of these lower bauxite grades will stretch into at least mid-2024.

正如莫莉剛才指出的，使用低品位鋁土礦是有成本的。這意味著每噸鋁土礦使用更多的原材料並生產更少的氧化鋁。第二季度，氧化鋁業務受到不利影響，調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 4500 萬美元。由於鋁土礦品位略高且運營實踐良好，這比我們最初的預期要好。展望未來幾個季度，鋁土礦品位將繼續變化。我們預計，一旦獲得批准，可能需要 9 至 12 個月的時間才能過渡到新礦區，並提高送往我們煉油廠的鋁土礦質量。因此，這些較低鋁土礦品位的預期影響將至少持續到 2024 年中期。

Next, let me provide some more detail on what we're awaiting from the EPA. The authority has indicated it could decide by the end of this month whether to proceed to the next stage in its consideration process, which would be a public comment period. If that occurs, the EPA would then decide whether to conduct additional environmental reviews on all or part of our MMPs and, if so, at what level. We support the authorities process for future major mine extensions, but we believe the current statutory process for our MMPs provides appropriate environmental and social protections in existing mine regions as part of a transition period. As an example, we've already proactively initiated assessment by the EPA for 2 future regions, Myara North and Holyoake.

接下來，讓我提供更多有關我們等待美國環保署提供的信息的詳細信息。該機構表示，可能會在本月底之前決定是否進入審議過程的下一階段，即公眾意見徵詢期。如果發生這種情況，美國環保署將決定是否對我們的全部或部分 MMP 進行額外的環境審查，如果是，審查級別如何。我們支持當局未來主要礦山擴建的程序，但我們相信，作為過渡期的一部分，目前的 MMP 法定程序為現有礦區提供了適當的環境和社會保護。例如，我們已經主動啟動了 EPA 對 2 個未來地區（Myara North 和 Holyoake）的評估。

Finally on this issue, I want to stress that I am very proud of how our team has been operating through different and difficult conditions. We have some of the world's most highly skilled people and we have strong operating processes. We are working together to operate safely, stably and efficiently, and we are pooling our collective knowledge to secure our approvals, and we will strive to reduce the impact of lower-grade bauxite in the coming quarters.

最後，在這個問題上，我想強調，我對我們的團隊在不同和困難的條件下運作的方式感到非常自豪。我們擁有一些世界上技能最高的人才，並且擁有強大的運營流程。我們正在共同努力，安全、穩定、高效地運營，我們正在匯集集體知識以確保獲得批准，我們將努力減少未來幾個季度低品位鋁土礦的影響。

Now let's turn to some key operational items across our 2 segments. First, in Alumina. Some may recall that we had a failure in the first quarter on a ship-to-shore conveyance system that unloads bauxite for the Alumar refinery in Brazil. Our teams worked to successfully make repairs and restore bauxite flows. I was impressed by how our team quickly and safely recovered. Then in June, we proactively began a project to replace a large bearing on the alumina ship loader at the same location. This 4-meter bearing supported the 820 metric ton structure. With much planning and coordination, the teams safely executed this major repair in 8 days working with a specialized contractor.

現在讓我們來看看我們兩個部門的一些關鍵運營項目。首先，在氧化鋁中。有些人可能還記得，我們​​第一季度為巴西 Alumar 煉油廠卸載鋁土礦的船到岸運輸系統發生了故障。我們的團隊努力成功進行修復並恢復鋁土礦流。我們的團隊如何快速、安全地康復給我留下了深刻的印象。然後在六月，我們主動啟動了一個項目，更換同一地點的氧化鋁裝船機上的大型軸承。這個 4 米長的軸承支撐著 820 噸的結構。經過大量規劃和協調，團隊與專業承包商合作，在 8 天內安全地完成了這次重大維修。

This well-coordinated effort enabled the loading of alumina ships to quickly resume. We didn't miss any customer shipments because of this work, and it demonstrates our push to move to proactive rather than reactive measures to keep our facilities at peak capacity.

這種協調一致的努力使氧化鋁船的裝載得以迅速恢復。由於這項工作，我們沒有錯過任何客戶的發貨，這表明我們致力於採取主動而非被動的措施，以保持我們的設施處於峰值產能。

Meanwhile in Spain, we continue to work to find the optimum production levels at the San Ciprián refinery, considering market conditions. It is currently operating at about 50% of its capacity. In the second quarter, a modest increase in production at this facility partially offset some reduced production at Alumar and in Western Australia, where our Kwinana refinery is operating 4 of its 5 digesters and where we finished a major maintenance project at Wagerup.

與此同時，在西班牙，我們考慮市場條件，繼續努力尋找圣西普里安煉油廠的最佳生產水平。目前其產能利用率約為 50%。第二季度，該工廠產量的小幅增長部分抵消了 Alumar 和西澳大利亞的部分產量下降，我們的 Kwinana 煉油廠正在運營其 5 個消化池中的 4 個，並且我們在 Wagerup 完成了一個主要維護項目。

In our Aluminum segment, 6 of our smelters are operating at full capacity with high production levels. Meanwhile, the smelters that have reduced production volume due to partial curtailments, Lista in Norway, Portland in Eastern Australia and Warrick in the United States are all running stably at those levels. Meanwhile, the ongoing restart of the Alumar smelter is progressing with an intentional and deliberate process to ensure that every pot that restarts is stable and operating well. We now have greater than 60% of that site's total capacity operating, and we're also continuing to invest per our agreements to support the phased restart of the San Ciprián smelter beginning next year.

在我們的鋁業務部門，我們的 6 家冶煉廠正在滿負荷運轉，生產水平很高。與此同時，因部分限產而減少產量的冶煉廠，挪威的Lista、澳大利亞東部的波特蘭和美國的Warrick均保持穩定運行。與此同時，Alumar 冶煉廠的重啟工作正在有意識地、深思熟慮的過程中進行，以確保重啟的每一個電解槽都穩定且運行良好。目前，該工廠總產能的 60% 以上正在運營，我們還將繼續根據協議進行投資，以支持圣西普里安冶煉廠從明年開始分階段重啟。

As I said earlier, we are enabling our operational leaders to spend more time in the field. This will bring an increased focus on safety, more fruitful dialogue and interactions with our employees and a renewed drive to find productivity and efficiency improvements.

正如我之前所說，我們正在讓我們的運營領導者能夠花更多的時間在現場。這將使我們更加關注安全，與員工進行更富有成效的對話和互動，並重新推動生產力和效率的提高。

Now let me provide our current view of the overall market for aluminum and discuss Alcoa's position as a producer of choice, both today and in the future. The global aluminum market is currently showing some mixed signals with limited supply growth and divergent demand trends depending on specific end markets. In China, some previously curtailed capacity is restarting in Yunnan province. But there are questions about hydroelectric power availability and stability for both Yunnan and Sichuan provinces, where China's low carbon aluminum supply is concentrated. In the rest of the world, conditions are still not favorable for restarts, and there is very little new capacity ramping up.

現在讓我介紹一下我們對鋁整體市場的當前看法，並討論美鋁作為當前和未來首選生產商的地位。全球鋁市場目前顯示出一些複雜的信號，供應增長有限，而需求趨勢因特定終端市場而異。在中國，一些先前被削減的產能正在雲南省重新啟動。但中國低碳鋁供應集中的雲南省和四川省的水力發電可用性和穩定性都存在問題。在世界其他地區，重啟的條件仍然不有利，新增產能也很少。

On the demand side, China is expected to see growth this year for aluminum used in electrical grid investments and vehicle production. The country's weaker real estate market, however, has slowed demand for aluminum in the construction sector. In the rest of the world, we see strong year-on-year growth in the automotive market, particularly in Europe and North America. The same is true for electrical applications, although construction and packaging have slowed this year as a knock-on impact from higher interest rates, inflation and destocking trends.

在需求方面，預計中國今年用於電網投資和汽車生產的鋁將出現增長。然而，該國房地產市場疲軟導致建築行業對鋁的需求放緩。在世界其他地區，我們看到汽車市場同比強勁增長，特別是在歐洲和北美。電氣應用也是如此，儘管今年建築和包裝由於利率上升、通貨膨脹和去庫存趨勢的連鎖影響而放緩。

The long-term outlook remains positive as the world will need more aluminum from both primary and recycled sources for existing users as well as global decarbonization efforts, including the transition to renewable energy, more electric vehicles and recyclable packaging. Recovery is expected in the construction market long term as developing markets see interest rates stabilize with continued urbanization trends. While more aluminum will be needed, China is still expected to continue to enforce its 45 million metric ton per year capacity cap, which it will approach in the next year or 2. Also, China's existing low carbon capacity is likely to face ongoing challenges related to hydroelectric power reliability.

長期前景仍然樂觀，因為世界將需要更多來自初級和回收來源的鋁供現有用戶以及全球脫碳努力，包括向可再生能源、更多電動汽車和可回收包裝的過渡。隨著發展中市場利率隨著城市化趨勢的持續穩定而穩定，建築市場預計將長期復蘇。雖然需要更多的鋁，但預計中國仍將繼續執行其每年 4500 萬噸的產能上限，並將在未來一兩年內接近該上限。此外，中國現有的低碳產能可能面臨相關的持續挑戰水力發電的可靠性。

In the rest of the world, we also see limited supply growth, especially in the production of aluminum made with lower carbon emissions. The announced projects in the pipeline are not expected to be enough to meet demand of our critical mineral. Market conditions are expected to be favorable for aluminum in the future, and Alcoa will also remain well positioned as a low-carbon primary aluminum producer of choice in key regions. We are a domestic producer in North America and Europe, which are both deficit regions where customers prefer domestically and responsibly-produced metal.

在世界其他地區，我們也看到供應增長有限，特別是在碳排放較低的鋁生產方面。預計已宣布的計劃中的項目不足以滿足我們對關鍵礦物的需求。預計未來的市場狀況對鋁有利，美國鋁業也將繼續保持作為關鍵地區首選低碳原鋁生產商的有利地位。我們是北美和歐洲的國內生產商，這兩個地區都是赤字地區，客戶更喜歡國內負責任生產的金屬。

Now I'd like to return to an issue that we discussed in prior quarterly earnings calls, the continued risk for the London Metal Exchange, or LME, related to Russian-origin aluminum. In the past 2 years, we've seen customers move away from Russian metal, particularly in Europe and North America. Also in Asia, many banks that traders use are not financing Russian metal. Many of these customers in this region are served by the small local traders. The dynamic regarding Russian-origin aluminum should raise alarm as we've previously stressed at our last earnings call in April.

現在我想回到我們在之前的季度財報電話會議中討論的一個問題，即倫敦金屬交易所（LME）與俄羅斯原產鋁相關的持續風險。在過去的兩年裡，我們看到客戶不再使用俄羅斯金屬，特別是在歐洲和北美。同樣在亞洲，交易員使用的許多銀行都不為俄羅斯金屬提供融資。該地區的許多客戶都是由當地小型貿易商提供服務的。正如我們之前在四月份的上次財報電話會議上所強調的那樣，有關俄羅斯原產鋁的動態應該引起警惕。

The situation has since worsened. Russian stocks in LME warehouses recently reached an all-time high concentration, representing 80% of total LME aluminum stocks as of the end of June. The physical stocks in LME warehouses are the basis of the published LME aluminum price, which is widely used as a price reference in global aluminum contracts. Because those stocks are now predominantly Russian-origin metal, which is unwanted by much of the world, it is difficult to have confidence that the LME exchange price matches the true physical price for non-Russian aluminum that customers largely require.

此後情況變得更糟。 LME 倉庫中的俄羅斯庫存近期達到歷史最高集中度，截至 6 月底佔 LME 鋁庫存總量的 80%。 LME倉庫中的實物庫存是LME公佈的鋁價的基礎，該價格被廣泛用作全球鋁合約的價格參考。由於這些庫存現在主要是俄羅斯原產金屬，而世界上許多國家都不需要這種金屬，因此很難相信倫敦金屬交易所的交易價格與客戶主要需要的非俄羅斯鋁的真實實物價格相匹配。

We have continued to reiterate our position to the LME that it should take immediate action to delist Russian-origin metal. There is a real risk here that if the LME delays acting, a stockpile of metal that is under extremely punitive tariffs and/or self-sanctioned will continue to build up. That would then cause this unwanted metal to inappropriately influence the global benchmark on pricing, damaging the integrity and relevance of the LME's aluminum contract.

我們繼續向倫敦金屬交易所重申我們的立場，即倫敦金屬交易所應立即採取行動，將俄羅斯產金屬退市。這裡存在一個真正的風險，如果倫敦金屬交易所延遲採取行動，受到極其懲罰性關稅和/或自我批准的金屬庫存將繼續增加。這將導致這種不需要的金屬不適當地影響全球定價基準，損害倫敦金屬交易所鋁合約的完整性和相關性。

Returning to Alcoa, we continue to see growing sales in our Sustana product portfolio as customers seek metal made with lower carbon emissions to reach their own sustainability goals. This year, we expect to see our sales of our EcoLum brand to reach 40% of our total European production, which would be a 60% annual increase. We also offer a wide range of value-add aluminum products that serve a diverse end market. And we have seen the same demand trends that I discussed earlier play out in our order book. Our participation in a variety of end markets allows us to benefit from divergent trends as we can flex our value-add production to adapt to different market conditions across the various end markets.

回到美鋁公司，我們的 Sustana 產品組合的銷量繼續增長，因為客戶尋求採用低碳排放製造的金屬來實現自己的可持續發展目標。今年，我們預計 EcoLum 品牌的銷售額將達到歐洲總產量的 40%，即每年增長 60%。我們還提供各種增值鋁產品，服務於多元化的終端市場。我們在訂單簿中看到了我之前討論過的相同需求趨勢。我們參與各種終端市場，使我們能夠從不同的趨勢中受益，因為我們可以靈活地調整增值生產，以適應各個終端市場的不同市場條件。

Now let me discuss opportunities for our business. While we are currently working through challenging market conditions, we look forward to recovery and the expectation of growth in long-term aluminum demand. And as we look toward this future, I'd like to stress not only the value of our current products, such as our Sustana offerings in alumina and aluminum, but the value that is embedded in Alcoa as a pure-play innovations-focused aluminum company.

現在讓我討論一下我們的業務機會。雖然我們目前正在應對充滿挑戰的市場條件，但我們期待著復甦和長期鋁需求增長的預期。當我們展望未來時，我不僅想強調我們當前產品的價值，例如我們的 Sustana 氧化鋁和鋁產品，而且還強調美鋁作為專注於創新的純鋁產品所蘊含的價值公司。

We are well positioned as the world moves to a decarbonized economy. The future requires more aluminum, which is a material of choice due to its lightweight, recyclability, durability and strength. And with customers increasingly focused on the need for responsible production, Alcoa is the company to deliver due to our environmental, social and governance practices.

隨著世界轉向脫碳經濟，我們處於有利地位。未來需要更多的鋁，鋁因其輕質、可回收性、耐用性和強度而成為首選材料。隨著客戶日益關注負責任生產的需求，美鋁公司憑藉我們的環境、社會和治理實踐成為了能夠實現這一目標的公司。

We know all metal is not created equally, and our focus on sustainability is what will differentiate us from other global competitors. That's why we're working so diligently to adapt to increased expectations in Western Australia, which will allow us to optimize our bauxite lines and return to higher-grade ore as soon as possible. And this focus on community engagement and responsible practices can also be applied globally across our mines, refineries, smelters and casthouses. Developing these systems not only helps us to surmount these immediate challenges, but it will also provide the road map to operating responsibility long into the future.

我們知道並非所有金屬都是平等的，我們對可持續發展的關注將使我們與其他全球競爭對手區分開來。這就是為什麼我們如此努力地工作，以適應西澳大利亞不斷增長的期望，這將使我們能夠優化我們的鋁土礦生產線並儘快恢復更高品位的礦石。這種對社區參與和負責任實踐的關注也可以應用於全球範圍內的礦山、精煉廠、冶煉廠和鑄造廠。開發這些系統不僅有助於我們克服這些迫在眉睫的挑戰，而且還將為未來很長一段時間內的運營責任提供路線圖。

Meanwhile, we're focused on finishing some key projects, including returning the Alumar refinery to normal production after the repair and maintenance projects I discussed earlier. And our focus on driving simple yet effective and proactive maintenance programs will ensure we are operating stably across our portfolio. We are also continuing to increase production via operational improvements that allow us to creep our capacity, and we're investing in next-generation casthouse technology to grow our value-add product capabilities and capacity.

與此同時，我們正在集中精力完成一些關鍵項目，包括在我之前討論的維修和保養項目之後使Alumar煉油廠恢復正常生產。我們專注於推動簡單而有效和主動的維護計劃，這將確保我們的整個產品組合穩定運營。我們還繼續通過運營改進來提高產量，從而提高我們的產能，並且我們正在投資下一代鑄造廠技術，以提高我們的增值產品能力和產能。

Two recent examples of this include a new casting line at Deschambault to cast smaller ingots that will allow the smelter to produce alloys from Alcoa's award-winning EZCast family. And at our Bécancour smelter in Canada, we're working to install technology that will improve the surface quality of slabs, helping customers improve their recovery of finished products. It will also help us attract new customers, specifically in the packaging and automotive markets.

最近的兩個例子包括德尚博的一條新鑄造線，用於鑄造較小的鑄錠，使冶煉廠能夠生產美鋁屢獲殊榮的 EZCast 系列合金。在我們位於加拿大的貝坎庫爾冶煉廠，我們正在努力安裝可提高板坯表面質量的技術，幫助客戶提高成品回收率。它還將幫助我們吸引新客戶，特別是在包裝和汽車市場。

For our production levels, I noted earlier that we're progressing with the Alumar restart, and we're investing for the phased restart of the San Ciprián smelter in Europe and its 228,000 metric tons of aluminum capacity currently idled. We also have some other curtailed capacity, both in refining and smelting, and we have options that we'll continue to evaluate should market factors and overall economics improve.

對於我們的生產水平，我之前指出，我們正在推進 Alumar 重啟，並且我們正在投資分階段重啟歐洲 San Ciprián 冶煉廠及其目前閒置的 228,000 噸鋁產能。我們還有一些其他的精煉和冶煉產能被削減，如果市場因素和整體經濟狀況改善，我們將繼續評估這些選擇。

Finally, we continue to work on next-generation technologies that have the potential to further differentiate our products from our competitors. These 3 projects, ELYSIS, our Refinery of the Future initiative and the Australia scrap purification process are all part of our technology road map. These remain under development and will help us on our journey to decarbonize and achieve our Net Zero 2050 ambition.

最後，我們繼續致力於下一代技術的研究，這些技術有可能進一步使我們的產品與競爭對手區分開來。 ELYSIS、我們的未來煉油廠計劃和澳大利亞廢料淨化工藝這 3 個項目都是我們技術路線圖的一部分。這些仍在開發中，將幫助我們脫碳並實現 2050 年淨零排放目標。

As you recall, ELYSIS is a partnership company based on process innovations that Alcoa first developed at the Alcoa Technical Center outside of Pittsburgh. The process eliminates all direct greenhouse gas emissions, replacing those with pure oxygen. ELYSIS is currently working to ramp up this technology to commercial scale, including the development of large smelting cells that would operate at 450 kiloamperes at the end of an existing potline in Quebec. Also, unlike some competing technologies, the ELYSIS process has already produced commercial-grade aluminum at research scale and has been used in end products from such brands as Audi and Apple.

您還記得，ELYSIS 是一家基於流程創新的合作夥伴公司，該流程創新是美鋁公司在匹茲堡郊外的美鋁技術中心首次開發的。該過程消除了所有直接溫室氣體排放，並用純氧代替。 ELYSIS 目前正在努力將這項技術推向商業規模，包括開發大型熔煉槽，該熔煉槽將在魁北克省現有電解槽末端以 450 千瓦的電流運行。此外，與一些競爭技術不同的是，ELYSIS 工藝已經以研究規模生產商業級鋁，並已用於奧迪和蘋果等品牌的最終產品。

We also know that the final carbon footprint of aluminum is not only determined by the electrolysis process itself, but also by the energy source and the alumina that is used to feed those smelting pots. That's why we're also working on the Refinery of the Future, which will help to improve a refinery's carbon footprint, reduce water usage and reduce bauxite residue. This includes electric calcination, mechanical vapor recompression and other developing technologies.

我們還知道，鋁的最終碳足跡不僅取決於電解過程本身，還取決於能源和用於供給這些熔煉鍋的氧化鋁。這就是為什麼我們還致力於未來煉油廠的建設，這將有助於改善煉油廠的碳足跡、減少用水量並減少鋁土礦殘留物。這包括電煅燒、機械蒸汽再壓縮和其他開發技術。

Meanwhile, we're also continuing our R&D work in our Australia technology, a proprietary scrap purification process that can economically separate aluminum from other nonferrous metals and impurities. It could provide metal of a purity level that would far exceed the quality of what most commercial smelters can produce.

與此同時，我們還在繼續澳大利亞技術的研發工作，這是一種專有的廢料淨化工藝，可以經濟地將鋁與其他有色金屬和雜質分離。它可以提供純度水平遠遠超過大多數商業冶煉廠生產的金屬的質量。

In closing, we continue to work to optimize our portfolio so we can succeed regardless of market cycles. We are focused on continued improvement, and we have a strong balance sheet with $1 billion of cash, allowing us to drive improvements during a challenging market and to focus on operational excellence. Our priorities are clear: securing our mine approvals in Western Australia; driving stability across our operations; adapting to a volatile aluminum market; and ensuring we operate the right portfolio for today and tomorrow.

最後，我們將繼續努力優化我們的投資組合，以便無論市場週期如何，我們都能取得成功。我們專注於持續改進，我們擁有強大的資產負債表和 10 億美元現金，使我們能夠在充滿挑戰的市場中推動改進並專注於卓越運營。我們的優先事項很明確：確保我們在西澳大利亞的礦山獲得批准；推動我們運營的穩定性；適應波動的鋁市場；並確保我們為今天和明天運營正確的投資組合。

Also, we remain a supplier of choice, and we're proud that customers come to us for solutions, including our recently announced contract with Emirates Global Aluminium. We not only sell low-carbon metal through our Sustana line, but we are the only producer in the aluminum industry that also markets and sells a low-carbon alumina brand. These products, which include EcoLum, EcoDura and EcoSource, can help producers lower their carbon footprint by switching to our material. EcoLum is our low-carbon aluminum. EcoDura contains recycled content and EcoSource is our low-carbon alumina. We are encouraged to see demand and sales growth in this brand family, albeit still a small percentage of our overall sales. Still, the growth demonstrates the rising demand for low-carbon technologies. This shows strong potential and value in the work we're doing to bring forward our research and development programs and reinvent the industry we created.

此外，我們仍然是首選供應商，我們很自豪客戶向我們尋求解決方案，包括我們最近宣布與阿聯酋全球鋁業公司簽訂的合同。我們不僅通過 Sustana 系列銷售低碳金屬，而且是鋁行業中唯一一家也營銷和銷售低碳氧化鋁品牌的生產商。這些產品包括 EcoLum、EcoDura 和 EcoSource，可以幫助生產商改用我們的材料來降低碳足跡。 EcoLum 是我們的低碳鋁。 EcoDura 含有回收成分，EcoSource 是我們的低碳氧化鋁。我們很高興看到這個品牌系列的需求和銷售增長，儘管仍然只占我們整體銷售額的一小部分。儘管如此，這種增長表明了對低碳技術的需求不斷增長。這顯示了我們正在開展的研究和開發計劃以及重塑我們創建的行業的工作的巨大潛力和價值。

Molly and I are now ready to take your questions. Operator, who do we have on the line with our first question today?

莫莉和我現在準備好回答你們的問題。接線員，今天有誰在線上回答我們的第一個問題？

(Operator Instructions) The first question is from Alex Hacking with Citi.

（操作員說明）第一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Alex Hacking。

I have a couple of questions, but I guess the first question would be on the environmental permitting in WA. Maybe I'm misinterpreting your comments, but it seems like you're a bit more conservative now than on the last call and anticipating that this process might be a bit more onerous than you previously anticipated. I mean is that -- is my interpretation fair? Or is the process going kind of as you expected?

我有幾個問題，但我想第一個問題是關於西澳的環境許可。也許我誤解了您的評論，但您現在似乎比上次通話時更加保守，並且預計此過程可能比您之前預期的更加繁重。我的意思是——我的解釋公平嗎？或者這個過程是否按照你的預期進行？

Yes, Alex, I think I wouldn't interpret it as more onerous or really all that different from what we talked about the last time we went through earnings. I think it's -- we certainly had hoped it would be solved this last quarter. And so it is taking longer in the time line and we reiterate that the time line is uncertain. However, I would continue to say that we're working collaboratively with the Australian regulators. We did have the Western Australian Environmental Protection Agency, EPA, so that by the end of this month, they believe that they'll give a decision about whether the referral is valid. So we are progressing. We're not there yet, but we're certainly progressing.

是的，亞歷克斯，我想我不會將其解釋為更加繁重，或者與我們上次討論收益時討論的內容有很大不同。我認為我們當然希望這個問題能夠在上個季度得到解決。因此，時間線需要更長的時間，我們重申時間線是不確定的。不過，我仍要說，我們正在與澳大利亞監管機構合作。我們確實有西澳大利亞州環境保護局（EPA），所以到本月底，他們相信他們會就推薦是否有效做出決定。所以我們正在進步。我們還沒有達到那個目標，但我們肯定正在進步。

On the other side of that, Alex, I would also say that I think we were -- I was pleased with particularly how our Pinjarra refinery, which is our largest refinery in the system in Western Australia, was able to perform with the bauxite grades as they were coming through. And so that's something where we can actively work as we go through this period of uncertainty and as we start to work towards improved grades in the future. The better and more efficiently that we can operate that facility and Kwinana as well, which has the same bauxite source, the less impact that we have both financially and operationally.

另一方面，亞歷克斯，我也想說，我認為我們——我對我們的平賈拉煉油廠（西澳大利亞系統中最大的煉油廠）能夠處理鋁土礦品位感到特別滿意當他們經過時。因此，當我們度過這段不確定的時期並開始努力提高未來的成績時，我們可以積極開展工作。我們越能更好、更高效地運營該設施以及具有相同鋁土礦來源的奎納納，我們在財務和運營方面的影響就越小。

So really, it's a very similar situation to where we found ourselves last quarter. It wasn't meant to look more conservative, but rather to say, hey, this is 3 months further delayed than what we had seen the last time we talked.

事實上，這與我們上季度的情況非常相似。這並不是要顯得更加保守，而是想說，嘿，這比我們上次談話時看到的情況延遲了 3 個月。

Okay, that's clear. And I appreciate the clarification. And then I guess on the second question, the smelters where you're operating kind of at reduced production levels, Lista, Warrick, Portland, I know Warrick has its own power source. But for Lista and Portland, are you involved in negotiations for power cuts next year? Is there any flexibility there? And if there isn't flexibility, is there a potential that production there could be further reduced if aluminum prices don't improve?

好的，很清楚了。我很欣賞你的澄清。然後我想關於第二個問題，你們正在以較低的生產水平運營的冶煉廠，Lista，Warrick，波特蘭，我知道Warrick有自己的電源。但是對於利斯塔和波特蘭來說，明年你們是否參與了停電談判？那裡有靈活性嗎？如果沒有靈活性，如果鋁價不改善，那裡的產量是否有可能進一步減少？

Yes. Thanks, Alex. And I think it's -- the answer is going to be, it varies and it depends, as is always the case. And each facility is a different situation. So take Lista as an example. We decided to bring Lista down simply because spot energy prices had climbed so high. And we were able to find the power contract that covered part of that facility. And that was able to allow us to drive it back into profitability, which is not an easy thing to do in Europe right now, given where energy prices stand.

是的。謝謝，亞歷克斯。我認為答案是，它會有所不同，而且取決於情況，一如既往。而且每個設施的情況都不同。以Lista為例。我們決定降低 Lista 的價格只是因為現貨能源價格已經攀升得如此之高。我們找到了涵蓋該設施部分的電力合同。這使得我們能夠將其推回盈利狀態，考慮到能源價格的現狀，這在歐洲目前並不是一件容易的事情。

And so we have the option, of course, to further curtail it as we go into this next round of power contracts, or we also will have the opportunity to bring it back up again. The European market, of course, is slower than it has been, but it continues to have strong premiums. And we continue to see a lot of customer demand, particularly for green and low-carbon aluminum, which is something that Lista certainly does and also has a very highly value-added casthouse.

因此，當然，我們可以選擇在簽訂下一輪電力合同時進一步削減它，或者我們也將有機會再次恢復它。當然，歐洲市場的增長速度比以往要慢，但溢價仍然很高。我們繼續看到大量客戶需求，特別是對綠色和低碳鋁的需求，這是 Lista 確實做的事情，並且還擁有非常高附加值的鑄造廠。

Take Portland sort of out the other side of that. Portland, we really had to bring back down because of some instability happening in the production of anodes. So that's one where we have the power available. We can scale that back up again, but we're not going to do that until we are certain that we have stability. And then, of course, we'll make the decision about whether that's financially viable, whether we continue to -- whether we consume that energy or we sell it into the open market.

把波特蘭帶出另一邊。波特蘭，由於陽極生產中出現一些不穩定因素，我們確實不得不恢復生產。這就是我們擁有可用權力的地方。我們可以再次擴大規模，但在我們確定穩定之前我們不會這樣做。然後，當然，我們將決定這在財務上是否可行，是否繼續——無論我們消耗這些能源還是將其出售給公開市場。

Warrick is a little bit different, of course, because we do have our own power source. That's one where we're really trying to work through what are the strategic plans for that facility, what do we want to do as far as long-term power source and how do we make sure that we're operating that smartly and efficiently. So that's one really that we have full control, whether we start back up some of the pots that are idled or what we choose to do that going forward.

當然，沃里克有點不同，因為我們確實有自己的能源。這就是我們真正努力研究該設施的戰略計劃、就長期電源而言我們想要做什麼以及如何確保我們明智而高效地運營的問題。因此，這確實是我們可以完全控制的，無論我們是否開始備份一些閒置的資金，或者我們選擇繼續做什麼。

I'd also remind you, we've got the San Ciprián smelter that will start to come back at the beginning of 2024. Now that will be relatively modest production capacity at the beginning. But we do have a commitment by October of 2025 to have that fully restarted into about 228,000 tons. And I would remind you that is our lowest-cost facility outside of electricity costs. So we are working very hard to find a way to get those costs down as low as we can, including the renewable power contracts that we've signed starting really as we progress over these next couple of years.

我還想提醒您，我們的圣西普里安冶煉廠將於 2024 年初開始恢復生產。現在，一開始的產能相對較小。但我們確實承諾在 2025 年 10 月之前全面重啟產能，產量達到約 228,000 噸。我想提醒您，這是我們除電費之外成本最低的設施。因此，我們正在非常努力地尋找一種方法，盡可能降低這些成本，包括我們在未來幾年的進展中真正開始簽署的可再生能源電力合同。

The next question is from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的卡洛斯·德阿爾巴。

So I wonder if you could perhaps, Molly, quantify the cost savings that you expect to reach in alumina from the initiative that you have identified to sort of offset or reduce the impact of the lower bauxite that you will be mining. And in terms of the timing as to when those may kick in, is that something that you see for the fourth quarter or mostly in the first and second quarter of next year?

因此，莫莉，我想知道您是否可以通過您已確定的旨在抵消或減少您將開采的低級鋁土礦影響的舉措來量化您期望在氧化鋁方面節省的成本。就這些措施何時生效的時間而言，您認為是在第四季度還是主要在明年第一和第二季度？

So Carlos, we've already started to implement some of the savings initiatives. They didn't amount to a significant amount in the third quarter, so that's why we've kept the $55 million guide. But you will start to see changes related to changes in our labor, changes in our maintenance routine as well as we're looking at some modest CapEx to improve operating efficiency. So those will start to pick up some speed in the fourth quarter and then will continue because we are continuing to identify additional opportunities to take at that savings into '24.

卡洛斯，我們已經開始實施一些節約舉措。第三季度的金額並不大，因此我們保留了 5500 萬美元的指導值。但您將開始看到與我們的勞動力變化、維護例行變化相關的變化，以及我們正在考慮一些適度的資本支出以提高運營效率。因此，這些將在第四季度開始加快速度，然後將繼續下去，因為我們正在繼續尋找其他機會，將這些節省帶到 24 世紀。

All right, okay. And maybe on the products that the ROI -- on the low-carbon products that the company offers, EcoLum, for instance, and others. You mentioned that your clients are asking for it and it will represent 60% of your aluminum volumes in Europe. Have you been able to monetize these lower-carbon products? Are you getting a premium? And is there a way you can give us a range of how much these premium represents?

好吧，好吧。也許是在產品的投資回報率上——在公司提供的低碳產品上，例如 EcoLum 等。您提到您的客戶正在要求它，它將佔您在歐洲鋁產量的 60%。您能夠將這些低碳產品貨幣化嗎？您獲得溢價嗎？您是否可以通過某種方式向我們提供這些溢價代表的範圍？

Yes. So let me take a stab at that, let's sort of break it into 2 pieces. The first is around volumes and continued demand. I have to say, and this really starts in Europe and where about 40% of our value-added now is going into these low-carbon products. We're seeing more and more pull. And you can see this, for example, with some of the automotive customers where they have set some pretty aggressive targets to be able to drive to net zero carbon. But we also see it in, for example, electric cables and in a number of different places.

是的。那麼讓我來嘗試一下，讓我們把它分成兩部分。首先是銷量和持續需求。我不得不說，這確實是從歐洲開始的，我們現在大約 40% 的附加值都投入到了這些低碳產品中。我們看到越來越多的拉力。例如，您可以在一些汽車客戶身上看到這一點，他們設定了一些相當激進的目標，以實現淨零碳排放。但我們也在電纜和許多不同的地方看到了它。

And so I have to say, as we've progressed, and I've probably been asked this question every single quarter for the last couple of years, I'm becoming more and more optimistic that those volumes are going to continue to improve. And we're seeing that really take root in Europe and starting to see that in North America as well. And of course, there's a lot of connections between our customers in North America and Europe, so it tends to spill over. So certainly seeing good volume improvements and particularly going to continue to see those volume improvements because we've got a lot of ongoing conversations with customers.

所以我不得不說，隨著我們的進步，過去幾年我可能每個季度都會被問到這個問題，我越來越樂觀地認為這些銷量將繼續改善。我們看到這種情況在歐洲真正紮根，並開始在北美看到。當然，我們北美和歐洲的客戶之間有很多聯繫，因此往往會溢出。因此，我們肯定會看到銷量的良好增長，尤其是會繼續看到這些銷量的增長，因為我們與客戶進行了很多持續的對話。

On the realizable value, so the important thing here for us is that because we've, for the most part, turned to renewable energy, a lot of these sales right now are cost-free, right? It's a matter of making sure that we have the right power source. Of course, there's all the work that goes into being a responsible producer and making sure that we can line up to the Aluminum Stewardship Initiative so that we can prove our credentials. But most importantly, this is essentially driving towards the scarcity or the fact that there is a differentiated product with less carbon content inside of our products. And so it's cost-free.

就可實現價值而言，對我們來說重要的是，因為我們在很大程度上已經轉向可再生能源，所以現在很多銷售都是免費的，對嗎？問題是要確保我們擁有正確的電源。當然，成為負責任的生產商需要付出所有努力，並確保我們能夠遵守鋁管理倡議，以便證明我們的資歷。但最重要的是，這本質上是導致稀缺性的原因，或者說我們的產品中有一種碳含量較低的差異化產品。所以它是免費的。

On the premium side, and you can see some of the published indices, which I think are pretty representative of the kind of premiums that we're getting, tends to range between $25 and $50 now, which is a beginning. It is certainly not where we see this continuing to go. And I would also argue, look at our low carbon sales, EcoLum is a very good example of that, which is our low-carbon aluminum, look at this as sort of the first step to making sure that our market is prepared for zero carbon aluminum down the road.

在溢價方面，你可以看到一些已發布的指數，我認為這些指數非常能代表我們所獲得的溢價，現在往往在 25 美元到 50 美元之間，這只是一個開始。我們肯定不會看到這種情況繼續發展。我還想說，看看我們的低碳銷售，EcoLum 就是一個很好的例子，這是我們的低碳鋁，將此視為確保我們的市場為零碳做好準備的第一步鋁在路上。

For our ELYSIS metal, we want it to be very clear, the unique properties, the unique characteristics and the fact that this will be truly a differentiated product. And so really, this is sowing the seeds that does create value for us in the short term, but more importantly will be the seeds that will be significantly greater value down the road.

對於我們的 ELYSIS 金屬，我們希望它非常清晰、獨特的性能、獨特的特性以及這將是真正差異化的產品這一事實。事實上，這播下的種子確實在短期內為我們創造了價值，但更重要的是，這些種子將在未來創造更大的價值。

The next question is from Timna Tanners with Wolfe Research.

下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究公司的 Timna Tanners。

Wanted to follow up a little bit on the time line for the upstream bauxite inefficiencies that you've laid out. So on the fact sheet that you've provided on your website or the Australia website on environmental assessment, there's a time line that says the finalization of the ERD, Environmental Review Document, is Q2, Q3. Is that what you're talking about that has to get finalized to kick off that 9- to 12-month lag before you get to kind of the optimization of the bauxite mining that you've anticipated?

希望對您所列出的上游鋁土礦效率低下的時間線進行一些跟進。因此，在您的網站或澳大利亞環境評估網站上提供的情況說明書中，有一條時間線表明 ERD（環境審查文件）的最終確定是第二季度、第三季度。這就是您所說的，在實現您預期的鋁土礦開採優化之前，必須最終確定 9 到 12 個月的滯後期嗎？

Timna, two different sets of issues and I can see how it's pretty confusing. So that particular time line refers to this next mine phase, essentially what we call Myara North and Holyoake, which is the next sort of that big conveyor move that then gets to this next large field bauxite. That is a completely separate process to what we've been talking about as far as the short-term set of approvals that have been running on a 5-year rolling basis.

Timna，兩組不同的問題，我可以看出這是多麼令人困惑。因此，該特定時間線指的是下一個採礦階段，本質上是我們所說的 Myara North 和 Holyoake，這是下一個大型輸送機移動，然後到達下一個大型鋁土礦場。這與我們一直在討論的、以 5 年滾動為基礎的短期審批流程完全不同。

And so that runs through this full -- look at it as an environmental impact assessment that's run through the EPA. That represents sort of the end state of where we're going and what we're trying to build this transition phase. And so that is the process that has a clearly set-out time line, but that time line can tend to change if they have additional asks as they change consultation periods, et cetera. So that time line pertains to that next mine phase, and that will take considerable time to be able to develop that. So that's not 9 to 12 months. That will take a few years in order to prepare for the conveyor move, et cetera.

因此，這貫穿整個過程——將其視為貫穿美國環保局的環境影響評估。這代表了我們要去的地方以及我們正在努力構建這個過渡階段的最終狀態。因此，這個過程有一個明確規定的時間線，但如果他們在改變諮詢時間等時提出額外的要求，那麼時間線可能會發生變化。因此，該時間線與下一個採礦階段有關，並且需要相當長的時間才能開發它。所以這不是 9 到 12 個月。這將需要幾年的時間來為傳送帶移動等做準備。

The other side of that are short-term approvals is how do you take what is this sort of -- this customized approvals process that we run today that was a 5-year rolling process that we submitted every year? How do we then incorporate a lot of the same types of environmental protections, community consultations? How do we incorporate that into this current process and get to these short-term approvals that then allows us to already -- that allows us to go into new mine sites that are part of the existing mine area? And so does that answer your question, Timna?

另一方面是短期審批，您如何看待這種情況——我們今天運行的定制審批流程是我們每年提交的 5 年滾動流程？那麼我們如何將很多同類型的環保、社區諮詢納入其中呢？我們如何將其納入當前流程並獲得這些短期批准，從而使我們能夠進入屬於現有礦區一部分的新礦場？那麼這回答了你的問題嗎，蒂姆納？

Yes. I mean it sounds like it's a bit apples and oranges or at least 2 somewhat separate instances, and you did warn that it's a complicated regulatory process. So probably not great to spell it all out on the call, but I appreciate that they're a bit distinctive, and we'll wait to get an update on the more immediate issues.

是的。我的意思是，這聽起來有點像蘋果和橙子，或者至少是兩個不同的實例，而且您確實警告說這是一個複雜的監管過程。因此，可能不太適合在電話會議上詳細說明，但我很欣賞它們有點獨特，我們將等待獲得更緊迫問題的更新。

So shifting gears, if we could. I did want to also ask you a little bit more color on the forecast you have for global aluminum and alumina. I know in last quarter's presentation, you had said that the markets were balanced. This time, you're saying it's a mixed bag. And we have seen premiums fall. So I know the medium and longer term is positive, but just a bit more color on what you're seeing in the near term would be helpful.

所以，如果可以的話，換檔。我確實想詢問您對全球鋁和氧化鋁的預測的更多信息。我知道在上個季度的演示中，您曾說過市場是平衡的。這次，你說的是一個魚龍混雜的情況。我們已經看到保費下降。所以我知道中期和長期來看是積極的，但對你在短期內看到的情況進行更多的描述會有所幫助。

Yes. Certainly, Timna. And it's, I think, mixed bag is probably the right word for it. So to go back to your first point, I don't see supply-demand imbalances being all that different than last quarter, to be quite honest. We're essentially on a knife's edge, and it can shift towards a very small surplus, shift towards a very small deficit. So in the end, we're really quite balanced, both in alumina and aluminum, and that's sort of where we expect it to be.

是的。當然，蒂姆納。我認為，“混合包”可能是形容它的正確詞。回到你的第一點，老實說，我認為供需失衡與上季度沒有太大不同。我們基本上處於刀刃上，它可能會轉向非常小的盈餘，轉向非常小的赤字。所以最終，我們在氧化鋁和鋁方面確實非常平衡，這正是我們所期望的。

What we are seeing, however, though, is that our markets and particularly when we look at it, a lot of our sales are happening in North America and Europe, we're seeing some additional weakness than we did before and seeing some strength in things like electrical and transportation, and we see that particularly outside of China, but also inside of China. Transportation continues to be very strong. And from a weakness standpoint, really billet, which goes into construction and then slab, which goes into packaging.

然而，我們所看到的是，我們的市場，特別是當我們看到它時，我們的很多銷售都發生在北美和歐洲，我們看到了比以前更多的弱點，並看到了一些優勢電力和交通等領域，我們看到這一點尤其是在中國境外，但在中國境內也是如此。交通運輸仍然非常強勁。從弱點的角度來看，真正的鋼坯用於建築，然後是板坯，用於包裝。

And so you look at it, you've got some areas of strength. You've got some areas where it really hasn't lived up to the strength and we're not seeing those increases year-over-year. And that sort of combined then with some of the supply issues that have happened. I know we have some facilities coming back up in Yunnan in China. That is not a surprise. I think we all knew some of that was going to come back up again. It doesn't take away some of the uncertainties around the -- around how much hydroelectrical power they're going to be able to generate. It's not easy to shutter but -- or bring back those facilities.

所以你看看，你有一些優勢領域。在某些領域，它確實沒有發揮出實力，而且我們沒有看到這些逐年增長。這與已經發生的一些供應問題相結合。我知道我們在中國雲南恢復了一些設施。這並不奇怪。我想我們都知道其中一些會再次出現。它並沒有消除圍繞他們將能夠產生多少水力發電的一些不確定性。關閉或恢復這些設施並不容易。

But in the end, it all sort of comes through this big calculation to get down to essentially a roughly balanced market. And that balanced market, of course, is waiting for what happens on inflation, and therefore, monetary policy that connects back with what's going to happen with the broader economy, whether there will be Chinese stimulus. And so I'd sort of get back to say, hey, it's a mixed bag. We're sort of more or less where we were at the end of last quarter, probably a little weaker demand, but also a little bit weaker supply as well.

但最終，這一切都經過瞭如此大的計算，最終形成了一個基本平衡的市場。當然，這個平衡的市場正在等待通脹的變化，因此貨幣政策與更廣泛的經濟將要發生的情況（中國是否會出台刺激措施）相關聯。所以我會回來說，嘿，這是一個混合包。我們或多或少處於上季度末的水平，需求可能有點疲軟，但供應也有點疲軟。

The next question is from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

下一個問題來自 B. Riley Securities 的 Lucas Pipes。

And I first wanted to ask on the cost side, you called out the $65 million in alumina, $25 million in aluminum with continued raw material savings. And with lags, first with caustic soda but then also kind of cost working their way through inventory, is that an order of magnitude we could expect also for Q4 or maybe even greater than what you've outlined for Q3?

我首先想問的是成本方面，您提到了 6500 萬美元的氧化鋁、2500 萬美元的鋁以及持續節省的原材料。由於滯後，首先是燒鹼，然後還有庫存中的成本，我們是否可以預期第四季度的數量級，甚至可能比您為第三季度概述的數量級更大？

Lucas, we're actually seeing very notable improvements in the third quarter. So within that $65 million for alumina and the $25 million for aluminum, we've got $20 million related to the caustic improvement, and then within aluminum, $30 million related to coke and pitch. As we give an early look to the fourth quarter, we are seeing notable savings, but the trend is continuing. So we do see a nice step down heading into the fourth quarter.

盧卡斯，我們實際上在第三季度看到了非常顯著的進步。因此，在用於氧化鋁的 6500 萬美元和用於鋁的 2500 萬美元中，我們有 2000 萬美元與腐蝕性改進相關，然後在鋁中，有 3000 萬美元與焦炭和瀝青相關。當我們對第四季度進行早期展望時，我們看到了顯著的節省，但這種趨勢仍在繼續。因此，我們確實看到第四季度出現了良好的下降。

Lucas, I'm going to add one very subjective comment, but we've been waiting for this cost relief to come through for a while. And it's particularly frustrating on the caustic side because it takes so long to work its way through our processes. But now to finally start to see those raw materials come through in Q3 and beyond is certainly welcome relief and it's very relevant for Q3.

盧卡斯，我要添加一個非常主觀的評論，但我們等待這一成本減免已經有一段時間了。腐蝕性方面尤其令人沮喪，因為它需要很長時間才能完成我們的流程。但現在終於開始看到這些原材料在第三季度及以後出現，這無疑令人欣慰，這與第三季度非常相關。

Very helpful. Then taking a step back from this and zooming out a bit, where do you think you sit today on the global cost curve? And would you expect maybe a supply response from higher-cost producers? You touched on it here and there throughout the call, but would appreciate maybe honing in on this point.

很有幫助。然後退後一步，縮小一點，您認為您今天在全球成本曲線上處於什麼位置？您是否期望成本較高的生產商會做出供應反應？您在整個通話過程中時不時地談到了這一點，但希望您能在這一點上進行磨練。

Yes. Lucas, I'm not going to be able to give you a particularly educated view on cost curves just because we tend to do that analysis on an annual basis, and we do it next quarter so you're 1 quarter early. I can give you some qualitative comments without giving you a quantitative number.

是的。盧卡斯，我無法為您提供有關成本曲線的特別有根據的觀點，僅僅因為我們傾向於每年進行分析，並且我們在下個季度進行分析，因此您提前了 1 個季度。我可以給你一些定性的評論，但不會給你一個定量的數字。

I think through this part of the cycle, what we've been suffering on -- suffering from both on the alumina and aluminum cost curves is the fact that we have our short energy position sitting inside Europe. And so when you look at -- fortunately, we have the San Ciprián smelter down, so that one didn't impact us so much in this downturn. But the San Ciprián refinery has really suffered from natural gas prices, and so they have drifted their way up the cost curve.

我認為，在周期的這一部分中，我們一直在遭受氧化鋁和鋁成本曲線的困擾，因為我們在歐洲內部持有能源空頭頭寸。因此，幸運的是，我們關閉了圣西普里安冶煉廠，因此在這次經濟低迷時期，該冶煉廠並沒有對我們造成太大影響。但圣西普里安煉油廠確實受到了天然氣價格的影響，因此成本曲線不斷上升。

Now we'll find a resolution to that. It's a market resolution for the most part. We've also been managing the -- essentially how much we're choosing to operate that plant. And I have to tell you that our operators and our managers there in San Ciprián are masters of making the plant work really well no matter what capacity they're running at.

現在我們將找到解決方案。這在很大程度上是市場解決方案。我們還一直在管理——本質上是我們選擇運營該工廠的程度。我必須告訴您，我們在圣西普里安的操作員和經理都是使工廠運轉良好的大師，無論其運行能力如何。

The other side of it is places like Lista in Norway. Their costs jumped up because we used to have some of the least expensive spot energy on the planet. For a little while, it was some of the most expensive. We've been able to find a good middle ground, but certainly, that's pushing us up the cost curve when we look at that. And so what we'll try and do when we come to our cost curve analysis is to talk a little bit about what the positioning will be, but also what are some of sort of the significant events that might be causing that cost curve to differ from what should be a longer-term view on where we believe that we sit in more normal conditions.

它的另一邊是像挪威的利斯塔這樣的地方。它們的成本猛增，因為我們曾經擁有地球上一些最便宜的現貨能源。有一段時間，它是最昂貴的。我們已經找到了一個很好的中間立場，但當然，當我們考慮這個問題時，這會推高我們的成本曲線。因此，當我們進行成本曲線分析時，我們將嘗試做的就是討論一下定位，以及可能導致成本曲線不同的一些重大事件。從更長遠的角度來看，我們認為我們處於更正常的情況下。

Now your next question is when do normal conditions come back? That's a really good question and I'd love to hear someone answer that for me, too. We look out, and our job is to make sure that we're managing the system in our portfolio as smartly as we possibly can. You see that in how we manage San Ciprián in the refinery. You see that in the way that we try to look across all of our facilities and make sure that they're creating value in this quarter and then for the next 10, 12 quarters, right? So we're working on that.

現在你的下一個問題是什麼時候恢復正常？這是一個非常好的問題，我也很想听到有人為我回答這個問題。我們時刻關注，我們的工作是確保我們盡可能聰明地管理我們的投資組合中的系統。您可以從我們管理圣西普蘭煉油廠的方式中看到這一點。您可以從我們嘗試審視所有設施並確保它們在本季度以及接下來的 10、12 個季度創造價值的方式中看到這一點，對吧？所以我們正在努力解決這個問題。

We have a lot of opportunities to drive that next class of power contract. We're working in the midst of -- with the Spanish government to try and find relief on natural gas costs. We're also looking for different ways to bring in other supplies. So there's a lot that we can do. We are not helpless, but we will give a lot more insight into cost curves and where we find ourselves in the next quarter. So more to come on that one, Lucas.

我們有很多機會推動下一代電力合同。我們正在與西班牙政府合作，試圖減輕天然氣成本。我們還在尋找不同的方式來引進其他物資。所以我們可以做很多事情。我們並非無助，但我們將更深入地了解成本曲線以及下一季度的情況。盧卡斯，還有更多內容。

The next question is from Chris LaFemina with Jefferies.

下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Chris LaFemina。

So I'm just trying to basically frame the range of possibilities. So you did $137 million of EBITDA in the quarter, and you have the benefit now of raw material prices that are going to start flowing through the P&L, some higher volumes as you're restarting some capacity eventually assume you get the mining licenses in Australia and you're mining high-grade bauxite again, so those costs come down.

所以我只是試圖從根本上界定可能性的範圍。因此，您本季度的 EBITDA 為 1.37 億美元，您現在受益於原材料價格，這些價格將開始流經損益表，隨著您重新啟動一些產能，最終產量會增加，假設您最終獲得了澳大利亞的採礦許可證而且你又開始開採高品位鋁土礦，所以這些成本就會下降。

If we ignore the impact of changes in alumina and aluminum prices and all the stuff goes right for you operationally, what does that quarterly EBITDA number go to? Does it go from $137 million to $200 million? Does it go to $300 million? Can you give me some sort of ballpark as to where you can be, ignoring any change in alumina or aluminum prices?

如果我們忽略氧化鋁和鋁價格變化的影響，並且所有的東西都適合您的運營，那麼季度 EBITDA 數字會是什麼？它會從 1.37 億美元增加到 2 億美元嗎？會達到3億美元嗎？在忽略氧化鋁或鋁價格的任何變化的情況下，您能否給我一些大概的信息？

Chris, that's hard to do with the market impacts. I'll take you back to our guidance. Again, we're focused on the downward trend for raw materials. We are improving production costs with our improvements in stability. Getting the higher volumes out is also helping us with our cost absorption. So we will stay focused on what we can control.

克里斯，這很難與市場影響聯繫起來。我會帶你回到我們的指導。我們再次關注原材料的下降趨勢。我們通過提高穩定性來降低生產成本。提高產量也有助於我們吸收成本。因此，我們將專注於我們可以控制的事情。

The next question is from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research.

下一個問題來自垂直研究公司的邁克爾·杜達斯 (Michael Dudas)。

Yes, I'm not sure when normalization is coming back in the near future, Roy, so I'm sure you're (inaudible). I want to further discuss on the Russian metal comments you made. Do you think that the current market is being restricted from a mechanism on where pricing is today, where pressure should be either better because of what's going on? And is there a real risk of that happening in the next several weeks to months, given the distortions in LME aluminum? And where do you get a sense of where those stockpiles may be and how it's going to flow through, given all the things that you discussed on that front?

是的，我不確定在不久的將來什麼時候會恢復正常化，羅伊，所以我確信你是（聽不清）。我想進一步討論您對俄羅斯金屬的評論。您是否認為當前市場受到當前定價機制的限制，由於發生的情況，壓力應該更好？鑑於 LME 鋁價的扭曲，未來幾周到幾個月是否真的存在發生這種情況的風險？考慮到您在這方面討論的所有內容，您如何了解這些庫存可能在哪里以及它們將如何流動？

Yes, Michael, so what I would say is that I don't necessarily see pricing broken right now. And you can essentially chart that back and say, how is -- how are aluminum prices, in fact, set? And it's the exchange of warrants on the LME. And that exchange of warrants essentially represents people that are holding that material and then choosing to either continue to hold it or to sell it. And so that changes over on a daily basis. And that changeover from buyers to sellers is what sets the basis for the entire aluminum market.

是的，邁克爾，所以我想說的是，我現在不一定認為定價被打破。你基本上可以將其繪製回來並說，鋁價實際上是如何設定的？這是倫敦金屬交易所的認股權證交換。認股權證的交換本質上代表了持有該材料的人，然後選擇繼續持有或出售它。所以這種情況每天都會發生變化。從買家到賣家的轉變為整個鋁市場奠定了基礎。

Now as you compare that with what's happening with headlines, what's happening with supply/demand, et cetera, we continue to see what appears to be an orderly market. LME metal is meant to be the metal of last resort. So if I'm selling metal, I only sell it to the LME because I can't find another buyer. So a great example is a lot of this Russian metal that came on warrant that came into the LME because they couldn't find another buyer, because nobody wanted to buy Russian metal. That's how the market -- that's how that market of last resort works.

現在，當你將其與頭條新聞、供需情況等進行比較時，我們會繼續看到似乎是一個有序的市場。 LME 金屬是最後的金屬。因此，如果我要出售金屬，我只會將其出售給倫敦金屬交易所，因為我找不到其他買家。一個很好的例子是，許多有認股權證的俄羅斯金屬進入倫敦金屬交易所，因為他們找不到其他買家，因為沒有人想購買俄羅斯金屬。這就是市場的運作方式——這就是最後市場的運作方式。

On the buyer side, when somebody is going out to look for metal, it's also the market of last resort. Someone would prefer to buy from a producer because then you are giving those tons where you choose to buy them from a particular plant, from a particular producer, and you can understand what the logistics are going to be. Whereas when you're going -- when you're sifting through warrants, when you're buying from the LME warehouses, you get it where you get it. You get a commodity-grade metal that's located in some place where LME has warehouses. So it truly is a last ton of last resort.

在買方方面，當有人外出尋找金屬時，這也是最後的市場。有人更願意從生產商那裡購買，因為這樣你就可以選擇從特定工廠、特定生產商那裡購買大量的產品，並且你可以了解物流將會是什麼。而當你去篩選認股權證時，當你從 LME 倉庫購買時，你就可以隨手得到。您將獲得位於倫敦金屬交易所 (LME) 設有倉庫的某個地方的商品級金屬。所以這確實是最後一招。

Right now, you've got 80% of that metal, which represents Russian metal. And so there's still 20% of metal. For the most part, it's Indian; that if I wanted to buy metal of last resort, I could buy enough tons so that I could actually get some of that Indian metal coming out and I can leave the Russian metal sitting inside the warehouse. And remember that whoever is holding those warrants will always give you the warrant that has the least value. They'll give you the Russian metal first. So let's say there's 200,000 tons of Russian metal. I need to buy 220,000 tons so I can get 20,000 tons out, again always representing the purchase of last resort.

現在，您已經擁有該金屬的 80%，它代表俄羅斯金屬。所以還有 20% 的金屬。大部分是印度人；如果我想購買最後的金屬，我可以購買足夠多的噸，這樣我實際上可以得到一些印度金屬，我可以把俄羅斯金屬留在倉庫裡。請記住，無論誰持有這些認股權證，他總是會給您價值最小的認股權證。他們會先給你俄羅斯金屬。假設俄羅斯有 20 萬噸金屬。我需要購買 220,000 噸，這樣我才能取出 20,000 噸，這又總是代表最後手段的購買。

So right now, you can still put up enough capital to be able to buy those warrants to be able to get down to those non-Russian tons. But as we watch this sort of almost this constant [march up], a higher percentage of aluminum from Russia sitting in inventory, the potential that even more tons could come into the LME because the customers, for the most part, are not buying these tons, and that's not universal. That is a generalization, particularly for North American and European consumers, as you watch that percentage increase and as those tons that make up that percentage also increases, it means to be able to use that market to actually buy non-Russian tons will require more and more and more capital.

因此，現在，您仍然可以投入足夠的資金來購買這些認股權證，從而能夠減少非俄羅斯噸位。但當我們看到這種幾乎持續的增長時，來自俄羅斯的鋁庫存比例更高，有可能有更多噸的鋁進入倫敦金屬交易所，因為大多數客戶不會購買這些鋁。噸，但這並不普遍。這是一個概括，特別是對於北美和歐洲消費者來說，當你看到這個百分比增加時，隨著構成該百分比的噸數也在增加，這意味著能夠利用該市場實際購買非俄羅斯噸將需要更多以及越來越多的資本。

So I'd say right now, we're not seeing distortions. But the higher that percentage goes, the more tons are sitting on inventory, the more likely that you could start to see distortions. And effectively, you'll have a bunch of metal that nobody wants sitting inside the LME warehouses. And so who's going to be buying and exchanging those warrants if that's not metal that anybody wants to actually take delivery of?

所以我現在想說，我們沒有看到扭曲。但這個百分比越高，庫存就越多，你就越有可能開始看到扭曲。實際上，你將擁有一堆沒有人願意留在 LME 倉庫內的金屬。那麼，如果沒有人真正想要交付的金屬，誰會購買和交換這些認股權證呢？

Now remember, the other mechanism, and I'm not going to get any further than this, the other mechanism that people are buying and selling those warrants because they're essentially establishing the spot price versus the future contango or the future backwardation. So the reason there's another impetus beyond just trying to buy metal, which is also, if I buy it for $2,500 today, it's worth $2,520 in 3 days, as an example. And so I'm willing to do that because I can then establish a trade.

現在請記住，另一種機制，我不會比這更進一步，人們買賣這些認股權證的另一種機制，因為它們本質上是建立現貨價格與未來期貨溢價或未來現貨溢價。因此，除了嘗試購買金屬之外，還有另一個動力，例如，如果我今天以 2,500 美元購買金屬，那麼 3 天內它的價值將達到 2,520 美元。所以我願意這樣做，因為這樣我就可以建立交易。

So that's sort of the nuts and bolts of what's happening in the warehouse. But as you have less and less people willing to take Russian metal, as you start to see banks that are not willing to finance that metal and traders that have said they're not going to be dealing with Russian metal, it increases the risk of a nonfunctioning market. So that was a very long answer to a very short question. Did that help to clarify a little bit?

這就是倉庫中發生的事情的具體細節。但隨著願意購買俄羅斯金屬的人越來越少，當你開始看到銀行不願意為該金屬提供融資以及交易商表示不會與俄羅斯金屬進行交易時，這就增加了風險一個不起作用的市場。所以這是對一個很短的問題的一個很長的答案。這有助於澄清一點嗎？

It did, Roy. Yes. That's very helpful. Thanks so much, and good luck with that.

確實如此，羅伊。是的。這非常有幫助。非常感謝，祝你好運。

Thank you, Mike.

謝謝你，邁克。

The next question is from Katja Jancic with BMO Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 BMO 資本市場的 Katja Jancic。

Maybe going back to more near term, pricing has softened. And if this soft environment persists, Molly, you mentioned that you're focusing on what you can control. What are the cost or what is the magnitude of cost savings you could potentially generate if this softer pricing environment persists and outside the raw material price declining?

也許回到更近期的情況，定價已經軟化。如果這種軟環境持續存在，莫莉，你提到你會專注於你可以控制的事情。如果這種疲軟的定價環境持續存在並且在原材料價格下降的情況下，您可能會產生多少成本或節省多少成本？

Katja, let me start with we've spent the last several years really improving the portfolio, strengthening our balance sheet. Right now, we have a lot of liquidity, excellent, $1 billion in cash. We have a revolver undrawn at $1.25 billion. No long-term debt maturities until 2027. We do have high working capital now. That will generally convert to cash, be a source in declining markets. So we will stay focused on operations. We'll adjust our spending and our operating levels as needed really to safeguard our assets and protect the long-term value for the shareholders.

Katja，讓我首先介紹一下，過去幾年我們確實改善了投資組合，加強了我們的資產負債表。現在，我們有大量的流動性，非常好，有 10 億美元的現金。我們還有 12.5 億美元的左輪手槍未動用。 2027 年之前沒有長期債務到期。我們現在確實擁有大量營運資金。這通常會轉化為現金，成為市場下滑的一個來源。因此，我們將繼續專注於運營。我們將根據實際需要調整我們的支出和運營水平，以保護我們的資產並保護股東的長期價值。

Katja, I'll add one comment on to Molly's as well because she is exactly right. If prices continue to soften, it drives a review of the portfolio that we're operating. And so we -- that's sort of in the Aluminum business. We're always doing portfolio reviews. It seems to be just part and parcel to what our business looks like. But in the end, we need to make sure that we're running the portfolio and the set of facilities that can create value in the part of the cycle that we're in but also in the future parts of the cycle.

Katja，我也會在 Molly 的評論上添加一條評論，因為她是完全正確的。如果價格繼續走軟，就會促使我們對我們正在運營的投資組合進行審查。所以我們——這有點像鋁業。我們一直在進行投資組合審查。這似乎只是我們業務的重要組成部分。但最終，我們需要確保我們正在運行的投資組合和設施集能夠在我們所處的周期部分以及週期的未來部分中創造價值。

We've, for the most part, walked away from savings that are good today and bad tomorrow. A lot of times, maintenance, you can save money today and then you end up having failures 6 months from now. So we don't spend a lot of time on short-term savings programs, but we do make sure that we can operate our plants to their best. And so that -- when we look at where our facilities sit, we have a lot of levers that we can pull in order to make sure that they are working well. We have, a lot of times, support from national and local governments.

在很大程度上，我們已經放棄了今天有用、明天就不好的儲蓄。很多時候，維護，你今天可以省錢，但 6 個月後你就會遇到故障。因此，我們不會在短期儲蓄計劃上花費大量時間，但我們確實確保我們能夠以最佳狀態運營我們的工廠。因此，當我們查看我們的設施所在位置時，我們可以利用很多槓桿來確保它們運轉良好。我們很多時候得到了國家和地方政府的支持。

But in the end, as conditions continue to move forward, we really need to think about how do we make sure that we have the right portfolio and continue to have the right portfolio. You've seen this in the decisions that we've made over -- since we've been a stand-alone company and really over the last few years. And hopefully, we've built the analytical model so that we can understand that. We have a good understanding not just of today's markets, but where those markets we expect them to go. And so we tend to make those decisions not just for the next 3 months, but for the next 18 months.

但最終，隨著情況繼續向前發展，我們確實需要考慮如何確保我們擁有正確的投資組合併繼續擁有正確的投資組合。你已經在我們做出的決策中看到了這一點——因為我們已經成為一家獨立的公司，而且在過去的幾年裡確實如此。希望我們已經建立了分析模型，以便我們能夠理解這一點。我們不僅對當今的市場有深入的了解，而且對我們預計這些市場的走向也有深入的了解。因此，我們往往不僅會在接下來的 3 個月內做出這些決定，還會在接下來的 18 個月內做出這些決定。

The next question is from Bill Peterson with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的比爾·彼得森。

My first question is on CapEx. You discussed deferring some growth in sustaining CapEx. Can you provide a little bit more color or detail on what type of projects or regions you're deferring this CapEx?

我的第一個問題是關於資本支出的。您討論了推遲一些增長以維持資本支出。您能否提供更多關於您推遲此資本支出的項目或地區類型的信息或細節？

So Bill, this really applies to the whole portfolio of capital projects. So typically, as we're running the projects through the year, if we have projects that have maybe naturally slowed, we might fill the queue. We're just not doing that. We're going to keep the projects that we had in the plan on the time line. And so we'll just allow the projects to run a bit longer. So there's nothing really being deferred. It's just the open projects that we have are extending.

比爾，這確實適用於整個資本項目組合。因此，通常情況下，當我們全年運行項目時，如果我們的項目可能自然放緩，我們可能會填滿隊列。我們只是不這樣做。我們將按時完成計劃中的項目。因此，我們將允許項目運行更長時間。所以沒有什麼真正被推遲的。這只是我們正在擴展的開放項目。

Okay. And maybe, I guess another one on capital allocation. So there are no buybacks in the quarter. I guess how should we think about capital returns and buybacks in the coming quarters? Are you looking for improved pricing in the marketplace, more clarity on operational improvements, working capital improvements? Just trying to get a sense of how you're thinking about the returns from here.

好的。也許，我猜還有一個關於資本配置的問題。因此本季度沒有回購。我想我們應該如何考慮未來幾個季度的資本回報和回購？您是否正在尋求改善市場定價、提高運營透明度、改善營運資本？只是想了解一下您如何看待這裡的回報。

Yes. So Bill, our capital allocation framework remains the same. We position for growth, we manage our portfolio and then we do returns to shareholders. And all of those depend on us having excess cash. So right now in the operating environment, we're going to stay with our dividend. It's appropriate for this market cycle. And so we continue to review this actively with our Board. But for right now, we have nothing to announce there.

是的。所以比爾，我們的資本配置框架保持不變。我們定位於增長，管理我們的投資組合，然後為股東帶來回報。所有這些都取決於我們擁有多餘的現金。因此，目前在運營環境中，我們將維持股息。適合這個市場週期。因此，我們繼續與董事會積極審查這一問題。但目前我們還沒有什麼可宣布的。

The next question is from John Tumazos with John Tumazos Independent Research.

下一個問題來自約翰·圖馬佐斯獨立研究中心的約翰·圖馬佐斯。

I wouldn't expect that you would draw down the revolver, increase the $1.8 billion of debt, increase the $3 billion of other liabilities to fund a tough market or the losses, that we have much comfort from $990 million of cash balances. Maybe we improve on the $63 million a month cash drawdown of the first half. But a year from now, the cash in these conditions would be less. Should we expect a year from now to look for asset sales, inventory reductions, stock offerings, plant closures? Or how comfortable are you drawing down the cash to get through each successive tough month?

我沒想到你會提取左輪手槍，增加 18 億美元的債務，增加 30 億美元的其他負債來為艱難的市場或損失提供資金，而我們從 9.9 億美元的現金餘額中得到了很大的安慰。也許我們會比上半年每月 6300 萬美元的現金支出有所改善。但一年後，這種情況下的現金將會減少。我們是否應該期望一年後會出現資產出售、庫存減少、股票發行、工廠關閉等情況？或者你是否能夠輕鬆地提取現金來度過每個連續的艱難月份？

So John, just as you said, we're not going to leverage up in the near term. We do believe that we're in a very strong position now with our cash where it stands. And again, we have a lot of liquidity options should they be needed. I'm going to take you back to 2020 when we faced the pandemic, and we did put in a very active cash management program. I mean there, we were able to cut CapEx, reduce working capital. We had a very robust program. And so if the market turns and goes further down, we will be looking at those types of programs to reinstitute them.

所以約翰，正如你所說，我們短期內不會增加槓桿。我們確實相信，憑藉現有的現金，我們現在處於非常有利的地位。再說一次，如果需要的話，我們有很多流動性選擇。我將帶您回到 2020 年，當時我們面對大流行，我們確實實施了非常積極的現金管理計劃。我的意思是，我們能夠削減資本支出，減少營運資本。我們有一個非常強大的計劃。因此，如果市場轉向並進一步下跌，我們將考慮重新實施這些類型的計劃。

What's the lowest level of cash balances that you're comfortable with, given the needs to manage raw materials between plants all around the world?

考慮到管理世界各地工廠之間原材料的需要，您能接受的最低現金餘額水平是多少？

John, we've really not shared our cash levels because they differ depending on the market cycle what we're comfortable with and what we're not. So we don't kind of set an external target for cash.

約翰，我們確實沒有分享我們的現金水平，因為它們根據市場週期的不同而有所不同，我們對什麼感到滿意，什麼不滿意。因此，我們不會設定現金的外部目標。

The next question is a follow-up from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities.

下一個問題是 Lucas Pipes 與 B. Riley Securities 的後續問題。

Thank you very much for all the time and really helpful discussion. I wanted to follow up on Michael Dudas's question on the Russian situation. And Roy, if I understood you correct in your prepared remarks, you called on LME to act. And I wondered, do you act -- in your commercial agreements, do you consider something else besides LME as a basis? I appreciate your thoughts on that.

非常感謝您一直以來的討論，非常有幫助。我想跟進邁克爾·杜達斯關於俄羅斯局勢的問題。羅伊，如果我理解你準備好的發言是正確的，那麼你呼籲 LME 採取行動。我想知道，在你們的商業協議中，你們是否會考慮除 LME 之外的其他東西作為基礎？我很欣賞你對此的想法。

Yes, Lucas, it's a good question. I think, today, there is no good alternative to the London Metal Exchange. And so what we truly hope is that we can influence, number one, the LME because we think there's just no reason that they can't make a decision immediately to no longer list Russia as deliverable metal. And also, number two, to work with our host governments, and particularly the European Union and the United States, to try and make sure that Russian metal is sanctioned, which then makes it very easy for the LME to no longer have that as a listed commodity.

是的，盧卡斯，這是一個很好的問題。我認為，如今除了倫敦金屬交易所之外，沒有什麼好的替代品。因此，我們真正希望的是，我們能夠影響第一，倫敦金屬交易所，因為我們認為他們沒有理由不能立即做出決定，不再將俄羅斯列為可交割金屬。第二，與我們的東道國政府合作，特別是歐盟和美國，努力確保俄羅斯金屬受到製裁，這樣倫敦金屬交易所就很容易不再將其作為製裁對象。上市商品。

So there's a few routes to get there. We're not yet at the point where we say, "Hey, pricing has fundamentally broken down and we need to find a different pricing mechanism just because there's just not a lot of really great alternatives that sit out there." And so the market continues to function. We will continue to look at that. What we're trying to do is to prevent the need to try and find a different pricing mechanism, which then could be more volatile, could require just a bunch of different changes. So I think we've got some routes to not have to do that.

所以有幾條路線可以到達那裡。我們還沒有到這樣的地步：“嘿，定價已經從根本上崩潰了，我們需要找到一種不同的定價機制，因為沒有很多真正優秀的替代品。”因此市場繼續發揮作用。我們將繼續關注這一點。我們試圖做的是避免嘗試尋找不同的定價機制的需要，這種機制可能會更加不穩定，可能只需要一堆不同的改變。所以我認為我們有一些方法可以不必這樣做。

That being our final question, this concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Roy Harvey for closing remarks.

這是我們的最後一個問題，我們的問答環節就此結束。我想將會議轉回羅伊·哈維致閉幕詞。

Thanks, Gary, and thanks to everyone for joining our call today and also very much for your continued interest in Alcoa. We're focused very clearly on driving improvements for the future. And we're focused on a future where aluminum will continue to be an important metal, an important metal for decarbonization, an important metal for across all the applications as our economies continue to improve.

謝謝加里，感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議，也非常感謝你們對美鋁的持續關注。我們非常明確地致力於推動未來的改進。我們關注的未來是，隨著我們的經濟不斷改善，鋁將繼續成為一種重要的金屬，一種脫碳的重要金屬，一種適用於所有應用的重要金屬。

We've got a lot of advantages built into Alcoa. We're a pure-play aluminum company and we have tried to demonstrate that we take actions so that we can make this company better each and every day. I look forward to talking to you again in October where we'll report our third quarter results. And in the meantime, please all be safe. Good night, everyone.

美國鋁業擁有很多優勢。我們是一家純粹的鋁業公司，我們試圖證明我們正在採取行動，以便我們能夠讓這家公司每一天都變得更好。我期待著十月份再次與您交談，屆時我們將報告我們的第三季度業績。與此同時，請大家注意安全。各位晚安。

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

會議現已結束。感謝您參加今天的演講。您現在可以斷開連接。